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Powerful Category 3 Hurricane Jova nears landfall in Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:42 PM GMT on October 11, 2011

Rain bands from powerful Category 3 Hurricane Jova are already deluging the southwest coast of Mexico as the storm heads towards landfall late this afternoon between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. Recent satellite loops show the hurricane has weakened since yesterday afternoon, with the eye no longer visible and the cloud pattern no longer as symmetric. Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the southeast managed to inject some dry air into the core of Jova that disrupted the storm's eyewall, and it is unlikely the hurricane will be able to intensify beyond its current 115 mph strength before landfall. It is more likely that Jova will weaken as it approaches land, due to the storm's small size, which makes is vulnerable to disruption when the outer portion of the circulation hits the mountains along the Mexican coast. If Jova maintains its Category 3 strength until landfall, it will rank as one of the ten most intense Pacific hurricanes to hit Mexico since record keeping began in 1949, according to a comprehensive list of Eastern Pacific hurricane landfalls at Wikipedia. However, I expect Jova's interaction with the high mountains of Mexico will knock it down to a Category 2 storm with 100 - 105 mph winds by landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outwards only 15 miles from the center of Jova, so a relatively small stretch of moderately to lightly-populated stretch of coast will see Jova's high winds and dangerous storm surge. A much larger swath of Mexico will see very heavy rains of 6 - 12 inches, and these rains are the primary threat from the hurricane.

The shape of the coast near Puerto Vallarta makes it difficult for a high storm surge to affect that city. Jova is passing far enough to the east of Puerto Vallarta that the winds in the Bay should be capable of elevating a surge to a height of just 1 - 2 feet above normal water levels, with perhaps a slight chance of a surge as high as 3 feet affecting the city. However, there will be high battering waves on top of the storm surge, and these waves may cause damage to ocean front property. I was in Puerto Vallarta during Hurricane Paine of 1986, and while we didn't see much of a storm surge, the coast experienced 10-foot waves that tore apart the sea wall protecting the swimming pool of the hotel I was staying at. The highest storm tide from Jova should occur near 9:55am CDT Wednesday morning, which is the time of high tide. Jova will be at its closest to Puerto Vallarta then, and is likely to be a strong tropical storm with 60 mph winds.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS image of Jova taken at 1:40 pm EDT October 10, 2011. At the time, Jova was a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Rainfall forecast for Hurricane Jova from this morning's 2 am EDT run of the GFDL model. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Links to follow Jova
Wunderblogger Mike Theiss is in Barra de Navidad, just north-west of Manzanillo, and will be giving us live blogs and photos from the landfall of Jova, as his power and Internet connections permit.

Manzanillo weather

>Puerto Vallarta webcam

Tropical Depression Irwin also headed for Mexico
Once Jova has made landfall, Tropical Depression Irwin, farther to the west, may also be a concern. The computer forecast models show that late this week, Irwin will approach the same stretch of Mexican coast Jova is affecting. However, Irwin is a weak storm that is may not survive, due to high wind shear, and may end up not bringing significant rains to Mexico.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are currently no threat areas in the Atlantic, now that Invest 93L has moved ashore over the Southeast U.S. Invest 93L did have tropical storm force winds, and will be re-analyzed in the off-season by NHC to see if it did indeed have enough organization to qualify as an unnamed subtropical storm.

The ECMWF and NOGAPS models continue to predict that a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression could form in the Western Caribbean early next week. Some of the spin and moisture for this storm could potentially come from an area of disturbed weather in the Eastern Pacific, (Invest 99E), that is currently just offshore of the Mexico/Guatemala border. Invest 99E is expected to move inland over Central America over the next few days, bringing very heavy rains capable of causing flash flooding and mudslides to Southeast Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters
Thank you, Dr. Masters.

" Invest 93L did have tropical storm force winds, and will be re-analyzed in the off-season by NHC to see if it did indeed have enough organization to qualify as an unnamed subtropical storm. "

That's good enough for me. I just wish it were enough for everyone else. For instance, here's more recent Twitter-bashing of the NHC:

"The most galling aspect, the way they name storms in the middle of nowhere then try to justify this"..."Their arguments against the facts would not stand up in a first level meteo course at any reputable college."..."They are either in denial of the data or not looking. Just when do you see that happen in hurricane season in Fla, if not warm core!"..."I will personally debate anyone from TPC on the fact this warm core based on all the data when it hit. They are covering up"

Sigh...

EP102011 - Hurricane JOVA


Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

thanks doc
Thank you Dr. M. It will indeed be interesting to see what final analysis NHC gives I93L.
Quoting Skyepony:
Tom~ Anything more than 50 miles from the COC was moving East to west..not with the circulation. The circulation was very small at landfall. The center that was seen by PWS & such was on land nearly from the beginning. Atleast an hour before what was on radar hit KSC.

Islander~ Mesoscale vortex have closed circulations too.. I usually refer to them as landcanes.

Atleast they have months to evaluate it. Had it been called a STS at landfall..even though it was questionable stacked & feeding on temp diff..the mob would be chanting..NHC failed..they only had 15 mins STS warning.
But that still does nothing to refute the idea that was subtropical...the definition of the subtropical cyclone, per the nhc, includes nothing about which was parts of the storm must be moving in whatever direction.
Maybe the NHC were working on their "ab's" during 93L ?
FPB:

Link

Interesting little piece (with photos!) of glacier change on the Himalayas.

And good luck to Mexico.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Thank you, Dr. Masters.

" Invest 93L did have tropical storm force winds, and will be re-analyzed in the off-season by NHC to see if it did indeed have enough organization to qualify as an unnamed subtropical storm. "

That's good enough for me. I just wish it were enough for everyone else.
For instance, here's more recent Twitter-bashing of the NHC:

"The most galling aspect, the way they name storms in the middle of nowhere then try to justify this"..."Their arguments against the facts would not stand up in a first level meteo course at any reputable college."..."They are either in denial of the data or not looking. Just when do you see that happen in hurricane season in Fla, if not warm core!"..."I will personally debate anyone from TPC on the fact this warm core based on all the data when it hit. They are covering up"

Sigh...

Good enough for me too.
I have a dumb question - if a storm starts out in the Pacific, crosses Mexico and enters the Gulf of Mexico, does it get a new, Atlantic name, or does it keep the same name? And is it possible for a Pacific storm to ever get all the way across the Gulf of Mexico to Florida?
Quoting mopapa:
I have a dumb question - if a storm starts out in the Pacific, crosses Mexico and enters the Gulf of Mexico, does it get a new, Atlantic name, or does it keep the same name? And is it possible for a Pacific storm to ever get all the way across the Gulf of Mexico to Florida?



If it keeps its identity, it retains the name. If it doesn't, it may be subject to a new name.

To the second, yes, theoretically, it's possible.
Quoting mopapa:
I have a dumb question - if a storm starts out in the Pacific, crosses Mexico and enters the Gulf of Mexico, does it get a new, Atlantic name, or does it keep the same name? And is it possible for a Pacific storm to ever get all the way across the Gulf of Mexico to Florida?


it keeps its name now the NHC made it a few years a go if i re call that they wont get a new name has long has it keeps the same low that storm came with now if the low falls a part and a new low froms then yes it would get a new name
Quoting TomTaylor:
But that still does nothing to refute the idea that was subtropical...the definition of the subtropical cyclone, per the nhc, includes nothing about which was parts of the storm must be moving in whatever direction.


I agree. The definition is too vague. Also, the line drawn between polar lows and high latitude subtropical storms (Vince, Grace, etc) is poorly defined. With that being said, I believe 93L was a STS that organized over water and lasted almost a day over land. It was extremely well organized, the only thing that held it back was being over land.
Quoting Cotillion:



If it keeps its identity, it retains the name. If it doesn't, it may be subject to a new name.

To the second, yes, theoretically, it's possible.
That is actually a cool question. If a Pacific hurricane maintained tropical storm status as it tracked across Mexico into the gulf, would it remain the name assigned to it on the Pacific side. I know that if it becomes a remnant low, and regenerates on our side, it gets named from the Atlantic list and vice-verse. I would guess the the name gets switched regardless of whether it retained storm status or not.
anyone have links to the models dr. m is talking about for early next week in the Caribbean?
Quoting Cotillion:
FPB:

Link

Interesting little piece (with photos!) of glacier change on the Himalayas.

And good luck to Mexico.

Thanks for posting that link. That's both amazing and a bit maddening, no?
Quoting mopapa:
I have a dumb question - if a storm starts out in the Pacific, crosses Mexico and enters the Gulf of Mexico, does it get a new, Atlantic name, or does it keep the same name? And is it possible for a Pacific storm to ever get all the way across the Gulf of Mexico to Florida?


National Hurricane Operations Plan, Chapter 3

3.3. Numbering and Naming of Tropical and Subtropical Cyclones.

The following rules apply for tropical cyclones passing from one basin to another: Retain the
name if a tropical cyclone passes from one basin into another basin as a tropical cyclone; i.e.,
advisories are continuous. An unnamed tropical depression will also retain its number (e.g.
Tropical Depression Six-E remains Tropical Depression Six-E) if it crosses into another area of
responsibility. For unnamed tropical depressions moving from west to east across 180°, CPHC
will use the associated Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s (JTWC) number and indicate JTWC in
parentheses following the number. For named systems, CPHC will use the associated RSMC
Tokyo name and provide the associated JTWC number in parentheses.

Within a basin, if the remnant of a tropical cyclone redevelops into a tropical cyclone, it is
assigned its original number or name. If the remnants of a former tropical cyclone regenerate in
a new basin, the regenerated tropical cyclone will be given a new designation.
Quoting Cotillion:



If it keeps its identity, it retains the name. If it doesn't, it may be subject to a new name.

To the second, yes, theoretically, it's possible.



nop it wont get a new name



An Atlantic–Pacific crossover hurricane is a tropical cyclone that develops in the Atlantic Ocean and moves into the Pacific Ocean, or vice versa. In recorded history, a total of seven tropical cyclones have done this. It is more common for the remnants of an Atlantic tropical cyclone to redevelop into a different storm in the Pacific; in such a scenario, they are not considered the same system.[
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


National Hurricane Operations Plan, Chapter 3

3.3. Numbering and Naming of Tropical and Subtropical Cyclones.

The following rules apply for tropical cyclones passing from one basin to another: Retain the
name if a tropical cyclone passes from one basin into another basin as a tropical cyclone; i.e.,
advisories are continuous. An unnamed tropical depression will also retain its number (e.g.
Tropical Depression Six-E remains Tropical Depression Six-E) if it crosses into another area of
responsibility. For unnamed tropical depressions moving from west to east across 180°, CPHC
will use the associated Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s (JTWC) number and indicate JTWC in
parentheses following the number. For named systems, CPHC will use the associated RSMC
Tokyo name and provide the associated JTWC number in parentheses.

Within a basin, if the remnant of a tropical cyclone redevelops into a tropical cyclone, it is
assigned its original number or name. If the remnants of a former tropical cyclone regenerate in
a new basin, the regenerated tropical cyclone will be given a new designation.


thank you was trying too find that
GFS has a hurricane out by the 27th and that will bring in the nation's first major cold (or even coldest so far) air of the season for late Oct. through early Nov. is the arrival time for the northern tier of the nation.

Sun. 16th has something in the southern BOC, maybe a TS.
Quoting Cotillion:
FPB:

Link

Interesting little piece (with photos!) of glacier change on the Himalayas.

And good luck to Mexico.

Stunning! Thanks so much for sharing this.
Quoting 19N81W:
anyone have links to the models dr. m is talking about for early next week in the Caribbean?



Go to my blog!

TampaSpin
You will find them there!



Could be another spinner trying if you look close in the Caribbean and heading into the Bahamas.
Model shows it too........





Gotta run out for a while...........everyone have a good safe day!
Quoting TampaSpin:



Could be another spinner trying if you look close in the Caribbean and heading into the Bahamas.


NAM's been consistant on a low forming in this area, but it stays well offshore. Dry air will be pushing into Florida this week, so its safe from any system in the short term.
florida is in good shape for at least late this week into early next week with all the dry air that will be over the state from a cold front coming through late friday and saturday...so they are safe for now..
Thanks Jeff...
7 survive 20 hours at sea off Florida Keys clinging to boat, cooler
Published: Tuesday, October 11, 2011, 10:00 AM



Eight relatives had set out to fish in less-than-ideal conditions off the Florida Keys. It was raining, seas topped 7 feet and winds were whipping up to 38 mph.


Before they knew it, two waves hit, capsizing their anchored 22-foot boat and knocking them into the sea about 3 1/2 miles offshore Saturday. Seven, including a 4-year-old, survived by clinging to their capsized vessel and a small blue cooler for nearly 20 hours, suffering exhaustion, jellyfish stings and hypothermia. A 79-year-old woman, the matriarch of the group, was missing and presumed drowned.
"When the will to live kicks in, human beings can do amazing things," Coast Guard Petty Officer Nick Ameen said.
The women grabbed the girl and the 2 ½-foot cooler. One of the men tried to rescue his mother, but she slipped through his grasp and disappeared into the water. The women said the boat turned over so quickly that there wasn't time to grab life jackets for anyone except the child, said Kendra Graves, a seaman with the Coast Guard.
Almost immediately, the two groups -- the three women and girl and three men -- drifted apart.
Nearly a day later, they were rescued when a commercial fisherman spotted the men Sunday morning and alerted the Coast Guard, which found the women and the blue cooler several miles away in the warm waters. Those rescued were taken to a hospital with non-life-threatening injuries.
Florida law requires children 6 or under on a boat 26 feet or less to wear a life jacket if the boat is moving. If the craft is anchored or docked, they don't have to wear one.
As the weather improved Sunday, fishing boat captain David Jensen headed out with customers to catch live bait. Off in the distance, he saw a large object floating in the water.
As he turned the boat to get closer look, he saw a man waving. At first, he said, he thought there was only one person holding on to the sunken boat, its bow protruding just a few feet out of the water. When he got closer, he realized there were three men.
"I tried to get them to swim to the boat, but they said they didn't know how to swim," Jensen said. "Then I had the mate throw them life jackets. One guy put on the life jacket and swam to the boat. The other two guys wouldn't get off the boat."
One of Jensen's customers jumped in and swam over. He tied the boats together, and helped the other two men, one at a time, back to Jensen's boat.
"They were exhausted. One guy overnight had lost his mother," Jensen said. "He was very visibly upset, which was a little tough because he was the one who spoke the best English."
Zaida San Jurjo Gonzalez died. Her son, Jorge Alejo Gonzalez, survived along with his wife, Tomasa Torres, the elderly woman's daughter, Elena G. Gonzalez, and her boyfriend, Juglar Riveras.
Also rescued were Jorge and Elena Gonzalez's uncle, Jose Miguel De Armas, his wife, Yunisleidy Lima Tejada, and their 4-year-old daughter, Fabiana De Armas Lima. All are from South Florida. The other survivors' ages ranged from 30 to 62.
After the men were found shortly before 9 a.m., the fishermen called the Coast Guard, who found the women. The women were hanging on to the floating cooler and started waving and yelling for help when they saw the Coast Guard boat.
All of the boaters were soon reunited, wrapped in blankets and treated for shock and hypothermia.
"They were all pretty happy to see each other," Graves said.
It wasn't clear if the boaters were aware of a small-craft advisory that had been posted early Saturday.
"They shouldn't have been out there," said Florida Fish and Wildlife spokesman Robert Dube, whose agency is investigating. "It was nasty from the get-go."
Jennifer Kay, Associated Press; Suzette Laboy, Associated Press
From previous blog

Quoting BahaHurican:
Sorry, couldn't resist.... lol

Seriously, I only remember it seemed like yeah forever a long time, expecially taking into consideration how long QuikScat was supposed to have been done before it actually finished. It would be nice to get some new imaging technology up there to give us more detailed and sophisticated data. On top of that, if it doesn't go up for another 3-5 years, how long do we in the general public wait before we get access to info from the newest satellite?

Anyway...


Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



----------

A joint project for creating a new satellite with the next generation of equipment has been announced by NASA and the NHC. The new satellite is scheduled to be operational in 2015, at which time it will be put in orbit around Earth.[9]

http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurr icane/blog/2009/11/quikscat_satellite_dies.html
^ a b c Ken Kayes (November 24, 2009). "QuikSCAT satellite dies". Sun Sentinel. Retrieved November 24, 2009.





Perhaps we should encourage StormKen to do a followup article on the status of the plan to replace Quikscat... in these times of so many budget cuts.

Now that I type this, I realize that we could encourage Dr. Masters to do an article on this, and find out "what's up" with the QuikScat program.
Regarding Pacific-Atlantic crossovers...

Hurricane six of 1923

and...

Hurricane 10 of 1949

But we've never had a named storm that crossed over to our side(wonder if it would change names even if it kept hurricane or TS strength).

On a side note in April 3rd, 1846 a superstorm(like that in 1993)smashed into the mouth of the Mississippi from the GOM!



I cant get my eyes off this site.... it is the rsoe edis emergency site. It has every major incident from fires to floods to earthquakes and even hazmat issues. Pretty cool as it is in real time. Stumbled up on it ... i think you all will like it.

Link
Quoting Neapolitan:
Thank you, Dr. Masters.

" Invest 93L did have tropical storm force winds, and will be re-analyzed in the off-season by NHC to see if it did indeed have enough organization to qualify as an unnamed subtropical storm. "

That's good enough for me. I just wish it were enough for everyone else. For instance, here's more recent Twitter-bashing of the NHC:

"The most galling aspect, the way they name storms in the middle of nowhere then try to justify this"..."Their arguments against the facts would not stand up in a first level meteo course at any reputable college."..."They are either in denial of the data or not looking. Just when do you see that happen in hurricane season in Fla, if not warm core!"..."I will personally debate anyone from TPC on the fact this warm core based on all the data when it hit. They are covering up"

Sigh...


To me I make notice that people aren't just trying to prove it was a Subtropical system, rather they are trying to find any excuse to bash the NHC because they are the experts, and for whatever reason there are a number of people who love to sit and little seats and judge those more knowledgeable then them. Its not just something you see here, it occurs everywhere. There is a general disrespect of others in authority, and or those who have more experience/knowledge in a field.

Everyone loved President Obama till he actually became President, now very many have a burning hate towards him, sometimes the very people who supported him. There may be a lot I disagree with that hes done, but he is my authority and President, and I respect him.

A fool is wise in his own eyes.
Quoting TXMegaWatt:
A Cowboy Named bud


A cowboy named Bud was overseeing his herd in a remote pasture when
> suddenly a brand-new BMW advanced toward him out of a cloud of dust.
>
> The driver, a young man in a Brioni suit, Gucci shoes, RayBan
> sunglasses and YSL tie, leaned out the window and asked the cowboy,
> "If I tell you exactly how many cows and calves you have in your
> herd, Will you give me a calf?"
>
>
>
> Bud looks at the man, obviously a yuppie, then looks at his
> peacefully grazing herd and calmly answers, "Sure, Why not?"
>
> The yuppie parks his car, whips out his Dell notebook computer,
> connects it to his Cingular RAZR V3 cell phone, and surfs to a
> NASApage on the Internet, where he calls up a GPS satellite to get
> an exact fix on his location which he then feeds to another NASA
> satellite that scans the area in an ultra-high-resolution photo.
>
> The young man then opens the digital photo in Adobe Photoshop and
> exports it to an image processing facility in Hamburg , Germany .
>
> Within seconds, he receives an email on his Palm Pilot that the
> image has been processed and the data stored.
>
> He then accesses an MS-SQL database through an ODBC connected Excel
> spreadsheet with email on his Blackberry and, after a few minutes,
> receives a response.
>
> Finally, he prints out a full-color, 150-page report on his hi-
> tech, miniaturized HP LaserJet printer, turns to the cowboy and
> says, "You have exactly 1,586 cows and calves."
>
>
> "That's right. Well, I guess you can take one of my calves," says Bud.
>
>
> He watches the young man select one of the animals and looks on
> with amusement as the young man stuffs it into the trunk of his car.
>
>
> Then Bud says to the young man, "Hey, if I can tell you exactly
> what your business is, will you give me back my calf?"
>
>
> The young man thinks about it for a second and then says, "Okay,
> why not?"
>
>
> "You're an aide in the Obama Administration", says Bud.
>
>
> "Wow! That's correct," says the yuppie, "but how did you guess that?"
>
>
> "No guessing required." answered the cowboy. "You showed up here
> even though nobody called you; you want to get paid for an answer I
> already knew, to a question I never asked. You used millions of
> dollars worth of equipment trying to show me how much smarter than
> me you are; and you don't know a thing about how working people
> make a living - or about cows, for that matter. This is a herd of sheep.
>
>
> Now give me back my dog.



First off, Bud would have been a shepherd and not a cowboy. Second, would it not have been more fun to just let him keep the dog?
Quoting Buhdog:
I cant get my eyes off this site.... it is the rsoe edis emergency site. It has every major incident from fires to floods to earthquakes and even hazmat issues. Pretty cool as it is in real time. Stumbled up on it ... i think you all will like it.

Link


Thanks an interesting site for sure.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


First off, Bud would have been a shepherd and not a cowboy. Second, would it not have been more fun to just let him keep the dog?


not for the dog...
TXMegaWatt - this is funny but could have just about any politician's name in it. Loved the twist at the ending.
Hurricane season is almost over.
Quoting TXMegaWatt:
A Cowboy Named bud


A cowboy named Bud was overseeing his herd in a remote pasture when
> suddenly a brand-new BMW advanced toward him out of a cloud of dust.
>
> The driver, a young man in a Brioni suit, Gucci shoes, RayBan
> sunglasses and YSL tie, leaned out the window and asked the cowboy,
> "If I tell you exactly how many cows and calves you have in your
> herd, Will you give me a calf?"
>
>
>
> Bud looks at the man, obviously a yuppie, then looks at his
> peacefully grazing herd and calmly answers, "Sure, Why not?"
>
> The yuppie parks his car, whips out his Dell notebook computer,
> connects it to his Cingular RAZR V3 cell phone, and surfs to a
> NASApage on the Internet, where he calls up a GPS satellite to get
> an exact fix on his location which he then feeds to another NASA
> satellite that scans the area in an ultra-high-resolution photo.
>
> The young man then opens the digital photo in Adobe Photoshop and
> exports it to an image processing facility in Hamburg , Germany .
>
> Within seconds, he receives an email on his Palm Pilot that the
> image has been processed and the data stored.
>
> He then accesses an MS-SQL database through an ODBC connected Excel
> spreadsheet with email on his Blackberry and, after a few minutes,
> receives a response.
>
> Finally, he prints out a full-color, 150-page report on his hi-
> tech, miniaturized HP LaserJet printer, turns to the cowboy and
> says, "You have exactly 1,586 cows and calves."
>
>
> "That's right. Well, I guess you can take one of my calves," says Bud.
>
>
> He watches the young man select one of the animals and looks on
> with amusement as the young man stuffs it into the trunk of his car.
>
>
> Then Bud says to the young man, "Hey, if I can tell you exactly
> what your business is, will you give me back my calf?"
>
>
> The young man thinks about it for a second and then says, "Okay,
> why not?"
>
>
> "You're an aide in the Obama Administration", says Bud.
>
>
> "Wow! That's correct," says the yuppie, "but how did you guess that?"
>
>
> "No guessing required." answered the cowboy. "You showed up here
> even though nobody called you; you want to get paid for an answer I
> already knew, to a question I never asked. You used millions of
> dollars worth of equipment trying to show me how much smarter than
> me you are; and you don't know a thing about how working people
> make a living - or about cows, for that matter. This is a herd of sheep.
>
>
> Now give me back my dog.



Funny. But when I saw something similar to this a few years ago, it was about the Bush administration. Guess all political jokes can be re-cycled to fit the era. Back to weather.

42. prcane4you 12:41 PM EDT on October 11, 2011


not until at least Nov 30th
does anyone know a link to a webcam in or near Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta to see the effects of Jova ?
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
does anyone know a link to a webcam in or near Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta to see the effects of Jova.





Link

doesnt seem to be updating tho
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


First off, Bud would have been a shepherd and not a cowboy. Second, would it not have been more fun to just let him keep the dog?

True. Also: a single GPS satellite is incapable of providing a fix; Cingular no longer exists; the Palm Pilot has been out of production for nearly ten years; the RAZR line has been largely supplanted by smart phones; the--wait. What's that? This is a joke? And it's from 2000? And it was originally about business consultants? Oh. Well, then. Nevermind. ;-)
Quoting aquak9:


not for the dog...


Aquak, ya beat me to the obvious. :)
Quoting will40:

42. prcane4you 12:41 PM EDT on October 11, 2011


not until at least Nov 30th
I mean Puerto Rico & Virgins Islands.
Quoting will40:





Link

doesnt seem to be updating tho



yea, is not updating but thanks anyway.
Quoting Jedkins01:


To me I make notice that people aren't just trying to prove it was a Subtropical system, rather they are trying to find any excuse to bash the NHC because they are the experts, and for whatever reason there are a number of people who love to sit and little seats and judge those more knowledgeable then them. Its not just something you see here, it occurs everywhere. There is a general disrespect of others in authority, and or those who have more experience/knowledge in a field.

Everyone loved President Obama till he actually became President, now very many have a burning hate towards him, sometimes the very people who supported him. There may be a lot I disagree with that hes done, but he is my authority and President, and I respect him.

A fool is wise in his own eyes.
,probably the most intelligent statement ive heard on this blog in a long time,yor a smart kid ,follow your dreams
Quoting portcharlotte:
Sorry you are the fool and the person who wrote the narrative is Joe Bastardi and he is right. Also, I would not post that quote on this site since it originated from a pay site which I am part of.



You dont get it, do you....
Quoting daveron:
florida is in good shape for at least late this week into early next week with all the dry air that will be over the state from a cold front coming through late friday and saturday...so they are safe for now..


I don't want to be safe, I want a Cat 1 hurricane.
joe b's just mad the nhc wouldnt hire him because he's to much fluff,lol
Quoting portcharlotte:



Sorry I realize you did not have a quote in there. but your comments are in relation to Joe Bastardi. There are many experts who work in the field including myself who disagree with the NHC on this one. We are not fools.


I think the point being made was this...

You love Joe B.
But if he became head of the NHC, how long would it take for you to hate him?

Hypothetical, of course.
But it obviously touched a raw nerve with you....
I found this link of a webcam in Puerto Vallarta but is updating every 10 seconds. I would like to find a realtime webcam in that area.

Link
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
I found this link of a webcam in Puerto Vallarta but is updating every 10 seconds. I would like to find a realtime webcam in that area.

Link


TWC had one...

Run and hide now.................
Quoting portcharlotte:
I think you should stick to your pots or whatever you do. Obviously, you are not able to look at objective data or have a background as a Met of any kind. Sorry to sound rude but it really bothers me when people can't understand it...that is the data...



Nice!
And what exactly WAS the data?
i dont think a nws skywarn certification qualify's as a met degree??,oh yea ive studied climate and wx as well and dont go boss hogging around here like i have a degree ;)
Repost from last blog.
Entirely possible that 93L wasn't anything we've ever seen in the Atlantic. It doesn't meet the requirements for a tropical or subtropical storm, but it didn't meet the requirements for a nontropical low, a landcane, or anything of the such. Wasn't a tropical wave, wasn't a nor'easter either or extratropical for that matter. Was a warm core feature, that's for sure, with a closed circulation, that's pretty much for sure to. But looking closer into it, you only had the warmcore features in a small core surrounded by an entirely non-tropical system. It was almost two systems in one, I have never seen anything like 93L in the Atlantic before.
People oppose the decisions and statements of authority when they believe the authority is incorrect. That goes for presidents or the NHC. The people of this country are free to oppose their president whom they elected. So we also are free to oppose the NHC when our meteorological sense is violated by something this large. It's easy to blow it off and say it isn't that big of a deal, but to us who care deeply about meteorology and the definitions by which we collect data, it is. The NHC deserves to be heavily questioned on this matter. Obviously very few people are willing to do so, but would rather side with power and in so doing pick the safer road to travel. Nobody would have any meaning in the world if their opinion was defined by the opinion of the group in power.

Nothing about this contains a lack of respect for the NHC, and I hold them in the highest regard possible, as I'm sure most people do. I believe they do an outstanding job. However, that doesn't mean that I'm going to suck up to them....I'm going to question them where I think something is questionable, and as our official government office for tropical weather, I expect them to follow guidelines that they themselves laid out. In recent years, there have been many examples of those guidelines not being followed in the way they were written, including this recent event. Thus, is it not only natural to ask for either a redefined set of guidelines or at least for the forecasters interpret them consistently? Isn't it natural to question why a system was or wasn't named based on the freely-available data at hand? Is that so blasphemous?

That's my 2 cents.
Let me say this there are many who subscribe to Bastardi and watch his videos and yes he is animated but he is right more often than wrong. He looks at the charts using some common sense approaches which are lacking in today's newer robotic mets who work at NHC. I worked there under Dr. Neil Frank along with John Hope, Miles Lawrence, Paul Hebert etc. These guys even without todays technology would never have taken a chance on a radar display for 93L and not name it. They were not textbook meteorologists. I worked as a support Met Tech in the satellite group. One of my co-workers was Max mayfield in the 70's. Levi32 also supports the fact that the system should have been named. He and others watch JB's discussions. I have seen crown weather use JBs own words but would never admit it. Unless you subscribe to him you can not credibily blast the guy. I hope you understand my point and I apologize if I offended you.



Quoting pottery:

I think the point being made was this...

You love Joe B.
But if he became head of the NHC, how long would it take for you to hate him?

Hypothetical, of course.
But it obviously touched a raw nerve with you....
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Repost from last blog.
Entirely possible that 93L wasn't anything we've ever seen in the Atlantic. It doesn't meet the requirements for a tropical or subtropical storm, but it didn't meet the requirements for a nontropical low, a landcane, or anything of the such. Wasn't a tropical wave, wasn't a nor'easter either or extratropical for that matter. Was a warm core feature, that's for sure, with a closed circulation, that's pretty much for sure to. But looking closer into it, you only had the warmcore features in a small core surrounded by an entirely non-tropical system. It was almost two systems in one, I have never seen anything like 93L in the Atlantic before.

Thanks Cybre,
This is what I was thinking, in spite of some furious comments from a couple people who believe that EVERYTHING is ALWAYS cut-and-dry.

The NHC is going to review all the Data on this system, and until they do that, and make a definitive statement on it, we wait and wonder at Nature's variation.
Quoting niederwaldboy:


Point is...???????????


Point is, its entirely possible that 93L was something that we cant put into a single category, and might have been something totally different and very rare. As to what, no idea.
In regards to if the system that hit Florida was a tropical or sub tropical storm is really not important at this point. Done and gone. Lets just blame in on AGW and be done with it.
NEXT
Quoting pottery:

You dont get it, do you....
Wuzup Pott....How is ( THE TREE ),?..:)
THE BUOY DATA! Unless that buoy was a ghost that data was a textbook observation of a warm core tropical store passing overhead...case closed..need to get back to work...


Quoting pottery:

Nice!
And what exactly WAS the data?
I don't really understand the fight to have a storm named that has already happened. Are there insurance issues that only come into effect if a storm is named? Or is this a situation where people want to refer to the event with a name for posterity sake?

From the outside it sounds like a case of "who cares" unless it's an insurance/aid thing which would really affect lives/money. Sorry in advance for my ignorance :(
93L's case is similar to what we experienced in May 2009 (image credit goes to stormchaser2007 & weather456)





All phase diagrams also indicated warmcore - pressure was 1000mb on buoys and 45 mph winds where clocked by those same buoys. Never was upgraded. Never was given an explanation as to why either from the NHC.

Still convinced to this day that 2009 should have been 10-3-2.
I think Levi32 put it correctly...When you are deep into the science or have worked professionally in the field it is an important debate. I work in the environmental field now and when my data says this is happening and someone blatantly is blind to the obvious it's hard to accept.



Quoting Tygor:
I don't really understand the fight to have a storm named that has already happened. Are there insurance issues that only come into effect if a storm is named? Or is this a situation where people want to refer to the event with a name for posterity sake?

From the outside it sounds like a case of "who cares" unless it's an insurance/aid thing which would really affect lives/money. Sorry in advance for my ignorance :(
Quoting Buhdog:
I cant get my eyes off this site.... it is the rsoe edis emergency site. It has every major incident from fires to floods to earthquakes and even hazmat issues. Pretty cool as it is in real time. Stumbled up on it ... i think you all will like it.

Link


thats cool thanks for the link
Quoting Levi32:
People oppose the decisions and statements of authority when they believe the authority is incorrect. That goes for presidents or the NHC. The people of this country are free to oppose their president whom they elected. So we also are free to oppose the NHC when our meteorological sense is violated by something this large. It's easy to blow it off and say it isn't that big of a deal, but to us who care deeply about meteorology and the definitions by which we collect data, it is. The NHC deserves to be heavily questioned on this matter. Obviously very few people are willing to do so, but would rather side with power and in so doing pick the safer road to travel. Nobody would have any meaning in the world if their opinion was defined by the opinion of the group in power.

Nothing about this contains a lack of respect for the NHC, and I hold them in the highest regard possible, as I'm sure most people do. I believe they do an outstanding job. However, that doesn't mean that I'm going to suck up to them....I'm going to question them where I think something is questionable, and as our official government office for tropical weather, I expect them to follow guidelines that they themselves laid out. In recent years, there have been many examples of those guidelines not being followed in the way they were written, including this recent event. Thus, is it not only natural to ask for either a redefined set of guidelines or to at least for the forecasters interpret them consistently? Isn't it natural to question why a system was or wasn't named based on the freely-available data at hand? Is that so blasphemous?

That's my 2 cents.

The way you and some others (here and elsewhere) have personally gone about questioning the NHC about 93L shows maturity, class, and professionalism. There's nothing wrong with that, and, in fact, it should be encouraged; by such means is progress made. But the problem appears to be that so many others have moved far beyond questioning the mets at the NHC and have gone straight to engaging in name calling, insulting, and making wild allegations of misconduct: "Idiots! Morons! What are they smoking in there?! Are they blind or stupid or both?! They obviously have an agenda, and are covering for someone; this calls for a Congressional investigation!!! Any imbecile can see 93L was Rina; they blew it, and now they're too embarrassed to admit their screw up!!!!!" And so on, and so forth, ad nauseum, ad infinitum. And that's ponderous. At least to some of us. So, yes, everyone is entitled to an opinion. But as I said last night, those who wish their opinions to be heard need to consider how those opinions are expressed.

There is a right way and a wrong way to criticize. More of the former and far less of the latter is greatly appreciated.
Quoting hydrus:
Wuzup Pott....How is ( THE TREE ),?..:)

LOL !!
And a Very Timely Question, given the current debate.
The tree lost many leaves over the last 2 weeks and is now covered in new ones.

For those not familiar with this, we am talking about a Calabash tree in my garden which is my Reliable Signal, for the onset of the Rainy Season here (Trinidad, 11n 61w)

Now, in 23 years, this tree has NEVER before lost it's leaves in October....

The point I keep making, is that we are all witnessing Climate Change (it matters not what's causing it), and my point today -which Teddy so eloquently raised as well- is that we will probably see weather systems and indeed weather seasons that leave us confused and unable to pigeon-hole now, and in the future.

There is no need to cast blame and find fault with any individual or organization over the fact that 93L left some doubts in peoples minds.
It was doubtful, at best. Each way.

I think we will see this more and more as we go along.
And for some people to suggest some kind of NHC/Insurance Payment Conspiracy is just downright pathetic.
Irwin looks to be making a comeback out there in the EPAC today.
Developing Low just North of the Eastern Tip of Cuba. Looks to be getting some nice spin going, but its no threat to Florida.
At least its something to watch in the Atlantic Basin.
Quoting Neapolitan:

True. Also: a single GPS satellite is incapable of providing a fix; Cingular no longer exists; the Palm Pilot has been out of production for nearly ten years; the RAZR line has been largely supplanted by smart phones; the--wait. What's that? This is a joke? And it's from 2000? And it was originally about business consultants? Oh. Well, then. Nevermind. ;-)


Geez man, it is just a joke like you said. It was a forward that was in my inbox this morning. I don’t think it was meant to be analyzed in every detail possible. Who cares if it is silly and outdated. It was only meant to give ya a slight smile on a mundane Tuesday morning. Move along Debbie Downer.
Quoting portcharlotte:
THE BUOY DATA! Unless that buoy was a ghost that data was a textbook observation of a warm core tropical store passing overhead...case closed..need to get back to work...



At the time that data was noted, there was OTHER CURRENT DATA that did not gel completely with what you are saying.
You cannot declare an entire Weather System something or other, based upon such isolated data.
Quoting Neapolitan:

The way you and some others (here and elsewhere) have personally gone about questioning the NHC about 93L shows maturity, class, and professionalism. There's nothing wrong with that, and, in fact, it should be encouraged; by such means is progress made. But the problem appears to be that so many others have moved far beyond questioning the mets at the NHC and have gone straight to engaging in name calling, insulting, and making wild allegations of misconduct: "Idiots! Morons! What are they smoking in there?! Are they blind or stupid or both?! They obviously have an agenda, and are covering for someone; this calls for a Congressional investigation!!! Any imbecile can see 93L was Rina; they blew it, and now they're too embarrassed to admit their screw up!!!!!" And so on, and so forth, ad nauseum, ad infinitum. And that's ponderous. At least to some of us. So, yes, everyone is entitled to an opinion. But as I said last night, those who wish their opinions to be heard need to consider how those opinions are expressed.

There is a right way and a wrong way to criticize. More of the former and far less of the latter is greatly appreciated.

LEVI
I was trying to find a way to say this, with less success than Nea.
If I may, let me add that I appreciate your input here very much, and envy you your knowledge on Weather.

Quoting pottery:

LOL !!
And a Very Timely Question, given the current debate.
The tree lost many leaves over the last 2 weeks and is now covered in new ones.

For those not familiar with this, we am talking about a Calabash tree in my garden which is my Reliable Signal, for the onset of the Rainy Season here (Trinidad, 11n 61w)

Now, in 23 years, this tree has NEVER before lost it's leaves in October....

The point I keep making, is that we are all witnessing Climate Change (it matters not what's causing it), and my point today -which Skye so eloquently raised as well- is that we will probably see weather systems and indeed weather seasons that leave us confused and unable to pigeon-hole now, and in the future.

There is no need to cast blame and find fault with any individual or organization over the fact that 93L left some doubts in peoples minds.
It was doubtful, at best. Each way.

I think we will see this more and more as we go along.
And for some people to suggest some kind of NHC/Insurance Payment Conspiracy is just downright pathetic.
well said

yes climate change is in fact all ready occurring
how strong the change is yet to be seen
when one is the actual field experiment
we have to wait till the end of the excecise
to see the full extend of its future outcome

and i think it will be like nothing we have seen before

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
well said

yes climate change is in fact all ready occurring
how strong the change is yet to be seen
when one is the actual field experiment
we have to wait till the end of the excecise
to see the full extend of its
future outcome

and i think it will be like nothing we have seen before



NICE !
quoting Nea: "There is a right way and a wrong way to criticize."

you know you opened up a door there ;)
..not that i'd walk through it.
Quoting Minnemike:
quoting Nea: "There is a right way and a wrong way to criticize."

you know you opened up a door there ;)
..not that i'd walk through it.

Of course. But what's wrong in some areas of criticism isn't necessarily wrong in others, and vice versa. ;-)
Quoting portcharlotte:
I think you should stick to your pots or whatever you do. Obviously, you are not able to look at objective data or have a background as a Met of any kind. Sorry to sound rude but it really bothers me when people can't understand it...that is the data...




If you are sorry to sound rude, you would not have written that. Comments like this have been the downfall of this blog this year. Rather than take pot shots at posters, please explain why you believe that the NHC is wrong on this one.

Many people, myself included, are merely interested in weather, not trained professionals. The discourse on this blog will go back to the high quality it used to be if bloggers would say, "I disagree with that statement and here is why ..."
Sounds like many on here are listening to JB's daily update theories then writes their own blog with his analysis........NICE........LOL
Quoting CybrTeddy:
93L's case is similar to what we experienced in May 2009 (image credit goes to stormchaser2007 & weather456)





All phase diagrams also indicated warmcore - pressure was 1000mb on buoys and 45 mph winds where clocked by those same buoys. Never was upgraded. Never was given an explanation as to why either from the NHC.

Still convinced to this day that 2009 should have been 10-3-2.


NHC did explain in a presentation at the 2010 Florida Govenor's Hurricane Conference


I think that the other thing we need to take into account, is the fact that we are now able to get far more Data and RealTime imagery than we did before.
Some of this Data is surely new in the sense that it is also 'unknown' from the point of view of what it actually means, as we are not in a position to relate it to Historical Data. (we dont have it)

So the fact that an area may be showing some clear signs of Warm-Core (for instance) while the rest of the area does not, should be understood to mean that this may have happened many times before without us knowing.

I often experience West winds here, with pressure drops, strong squalls , high temps and heavy rains .
Should I declare these as something????

I am oversimplifying for the sake of argument...
Quoting shred3590:


If you are sorry to sound rude, you would not have written that. Comments like this have been the downfall of this blog this year. Rather than take pot shots at posters, please explain why you believe that the NHC is wrong on this one.

Many people, myself included, are merely interested in weather, not trained professionals. The discourse on this blog will go back to the high quality it used to be if bloggers would say, "I disagree with that statement and here is why ..."

You are correct.
It would be beneficial to all concerned if people justified their opinions with some thoughts and data.
It does not happen often, but some people do.
Levi, Drakoen, Skye, Cybre, and several others do this all the time.
Quoting pottery:
I think that the other thing we need to take into account, is the fact that we are now able to get far more Data and RealTime imagery than we did before.
Some of this Data is surely new in the sense that it is also 'unknown' from the point of view of what it actually means, as we are not in a position to relate it to Historical Data. (we dont have it)

So the fact that an area may be showing some clear signs of Warm-Core (for instance) while the rest of the area does not, should be understood to mean that this may have happened many times before without us knowing.

I often experience West winds here, with pressure drops, strong squalls , high temps and heavy rains .
Should I declare these as something????

I am oversimplifying for the sake of argument...



Have you had your afternoon friska today yet......LOL......Hey POT don't let some of these idiots get to ya man!
Irwin slowly strengthening again:

EP, 11, 2011101118, , BEST, 0, 149N, 1149W, 40, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 50, 30, 30
Quoting TampaSpin:



Have you had your afternoon friska today yet......LOL......Hey POT don't let some of these idiots get to ya man!

It's all Good!

The Weather here, now--

Temp 93F
Humid. 56%
Dew pt. 75F
Wind 12 mph East
Pressure 1009 (falling)
Heat Index 105F

This is Steamy, man.

Quoting pottery:

It's all Good!

The Weather here, now--

Temp 93F
Humid. 56%
Dew pt. 75F
Wind 12 mph East
Pressure 1009 (falling)
Heat Index 105F

This is Steamy, man.




Sounds like Fall Weather is upon ya! LOL
Quoting TampaSpin:



Sounds like Fall Weather is upon ya! LOL

Yeah, and I'm Falling, fast!
Whew!
Small Islands are not supposed to get this hot.
Oh wow, we have the people who're blowing up at the NHC, and we have the calm folks. I don't want to name names, but I have a lot of respect for the latter.

I salute you calm folks.
Quoting ClaySFL:
Oh wow, we have the people who're blowing up at the NHC, and we have the calm folks. I don't want to name names, but I have a lot of respect for the latter.

I salute you calm folks.



Ya, an awfully lot of people rushing to judgement about the NHC without all the Info THEY have which is far more than any of us......JUST SAYN
Quoting TampaSpin:



Ya, an awfully lot of people rushing to judgement about the NHC without all the Info THEY have which is far more than any of us......JUST SAYN


I couldn't agree more with that.
Quoting pottery:

It's all Good!

The Weather here, now--

Temp 93F
Humid. 56%
Dew pt. 75F
Wind 12 mph East
Pressure 1009 (falling)
Heat Index 105F

This is Steamy, man.

a little warm here should be in high 50's we are high 70's with a heat index over 80 been feeling like june instead of oct the last 5 days or so
102. Gorty
I am very pumped up for a potential snow storm that the GFS shows for the Northeast for the 19th. Maybe just maybe it will go coastal!
OP GFS AND GFES ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FINALLY BREAKING DOWN BY NEXT TUE OCT 18 AS A SERIES OF POLAR
PERTURBATIONS ROTATING AROUND BASE OF ERN NOAM MEAN TROF ERODE THE
RIDGE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND THUS BETTER CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE
LAST TEN DAYS OF OCT. INTERESTINGLY...A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUGGEST TC FORMATION NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AROUND THE 19TH AND
LATEST CPC GLOBAL TROPICS BENEFITS/HAZARDS ASSESSMENT PAGE AND MJO
FORECASTS HAVE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN HIGHLIGHTED UNDER A
MODERATE CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AND A HIGH CHANCE OF
ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL FOR WEEK-2. SO...AFTER A RATHER QUIET FIRST
HALF OF OCT THINGS LOOK TO TURN MORE EXCITING FOR THE END OF THE
MONTH.
Jova is--fortunately--down to a low-end Cat 2:

EP, 10, 2011101118, , BEST, 0, 179N, 1055W, 85, 973, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 40, 40, 1006, 180, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JOVA, D,
Quoting pottery:

LOL !!
And a Very Timely Question, given the current debate.
The tree lost many leaves over the last 2 weeks and is now covered in new ones.

For those not familiar with this, we am talking about a Calabash tree in my garden which is my Reliable Signal, for the onset of the Rainy Season here (Trinidad, 11n 61w)

Now, in 23 years, this tree has NEVER before lost it's leaves in October....

The point I keep making, is that we are all witnessing Climate Change (it matters not what's causing it), and my point today -which Teddy so eloquently raised as well- is that we will probably see weather systems and indeed weather seasons that leave us confused and unable to pigeon-hole now, and in the future.

There is no need to cast blame and find fault with any individual or organization over the fact that 93L left some doubts in peoples minds.
It was doubtful, at best. Each way.

I think we will see this more and more as we go along.
And for some people to suggest some kind of NHC/Insurance Payment Conspiracy is just downright pathetic.
October can be quite rainy there.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
a little warm here should be in high 50's we are high 70's with a heat index over 80 been feeling like june instead of oct the last 5 days or so

Yeah, that's a big difference to the norm.
Hope you have a Mild winter though.

I'm out, till later>>>>>>>>>>
Quoting hydrus:
October can be quite rainy there.

Absolutely.
Oct/Nov average (for the 2 months combined) is 21 inches at my location.
We'll see how this year compares....
I have a feeling it will be low.
Was kinda po'ed at the NHC for not calling this a TS yesterday, have since backed off and looked at other data and other mets input, leading me to the conclusion I made at post no. 63. We may never know what 93L was.
Gone.....
Quoting pottery:

Absolutely.
Oct/Nov average (for the 2 months combined) is 21 inches at my location.
We'll see how this year compares....
I have a feeling it will be low.
Actually, I think you may end up surprised. Pressures are suppose to drop later in the month..You might start getting some moisture surges again.
http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_25746.html

Expert analysis of the THING that was off the central florida coast a few days ago.
Even Stu agrees it was a subtropical system and gives his reasons as to why it was.
Quoting yankees440:
http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_25746.html

Expert analysis of the THING that was off the central florida coast a few days ago.
Even Stu agrees it was a subtropical system and gives his reasons as to why it was.


well if stu were that talented he would'nt be wasting him time with the bozos on the weather channel and he would be with the NHC...
113. TX2FL
Quoting Gorty:
I am very pumped up for a potential snow storm that the GFS shows for the Northeast for the 19th. Maybe just maybe it will go coastal!


Seriously??? What part of the NE?
Not to harp on the 90L situation from 2009, but when I see the NHC say there was no well-defined circulation it always makes me laugh.





Latest visible of Jova
jova EWRC is over and she is a 100mph cat 2. will she restregnthen?
Added to the blog:

The shape of the coast near Puerto Vallarta makes it difficult for a high storm surge to affect that city. Jova is passing far enough to the east of Puerto Vallarta that the winds in the Bay should be capable of elevating a surge to a height of just 1 - 2 feet above normal water levels, with perhaps a slight chance of a surge as high as 3 feet affecting the city. However, there will be high battering waves on top of the storm surge, and these waves may cause damage to ocean front property. I was in Puerto Vallarta during Hurricane Paine of 1986, and while we didn't see much of a storm surge, the coast experienced 10-foot waves that tore apart the sea wall protecting the swimming pool of the hotel I was staying at. The highest storm tide from Jova should occur near 9:55am CDT Wednesday morning, which is the time of high tide. Jova will be at its closest to Puerto Vallarta then, and is likely to be a strong tropical storm with 60 mph winds.

Jeff Masters
Quoting Neapolitan:

The way you and some others (here and elsewhere) have personally gone about questioning the NHC about 93L shows maturity, class, and professionalism. There's nothing wrong with that, and, in fact, it should be encouraged; by such means is progress made. But the problem appears to be that so many others have moved far beyond questioning the mets at the NHC and have gone straight to engaging in name calling, insulting, and making wild allegations of misconduct: "Idiots! Morons! What are they smoking in there?! Are they blind or stupid or both?! They obviously have an agenda, and are covering for someone; this calls for a Congressional investigation!!! Any imbecile can see 93L was Rina; they blew it, and now they're too embarrassed to admit their screw up!!!!!" And so on, and so forth, ad nauseum, ad infinitum. And that's ponderous. At least to some of us. So, yes, everyone is entitled to an opinion. But as I said last night, those who wish their opinions to be heard need to consider how those opinions are expressed.

There is a right way and a wrong way to criticize. More of the former and far less of the latter is greatly appreciated.

Very well said!
Quoting daveron:


well if stu were that talented he would'nt be wasting him time with the bozos on the weather channel and he would be with the NHC...


If we told you another met from TWC believes it wasn't would you say they're absolutely right?

Sheesh.
Hopefully Jova will continue her weakening trend.
TWC stuff interests me because I was watching TWC when 93L was just off shore.

A "Subtropical Storm" was about to make landfall and they were showing "Storm Stories."

Now after the fact, they're looking back at the system. But when it was on going, they didn't even think it was worth interupting their normal programming (re-runs of Storm Stories).
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Hopefully Jova will continue her weakening trend.
i think she is restregnthining now, the visible shows her eye reforming..
It's never over until it's over..but the the global models do not look to enthused...even with a strong MJO pulse on the horizon. It's very possible the Pacific steals the energy from that pulse and the 2011 season comes to an end. The Caribbean has been very hostile this year and there isn't any tropical waves migrating into that region. Time is running out..we shall see
Still arguing about whether or not 93L was a cyclone or not, huh?

My opinion is this -- Yes, they are the experts. They are far smarter than most of us amateurs on the blog. However, does that mean you can't question their decisions? This and dealing with the president could go hand in hand. Just because he is our leader, does that mean we can't question his authority? Of course not! There was a lot of evidence to support that Invest 93L was a Subtropical/Tropical storm at landfall two days ago, with ASCAT, Buoy data, land observations, and personal accounts from within the area. The only real reason I could see the NHC not naming 93L is because of its convection, but that just brings us to Tropical Storm Jose earlier this season. Did it keep convection atop its center? No. As with the case with 93L, you can't expect a Subtropical storm to have a lot of convection like a tropical cyclone does, so I see no reason why the NHC didn't classify the system.
125. Gorty
Quoting TX2FL:


Seriously??? What part of the NE?


Extreme western NE and Great Lakes (might be eastern Great Lakes. See for yourself if you can access the GFS and get ready to be excited!

But I think the GFS might be slowly going with a coastal idea... Good for me in southern New England :D
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
i think she is restregnthining now, the visible shows her eye reforming..


Possibly. But remember that the recent visible satellite shots were taken when it was near local noon.
Nice! Euro still showing development in the Western Caribbean, probably from the migration of 99E. I need some storms to get cranking, so it satisfies my prediction of 21/7/4.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Nice! Euro still showing development in the Western Caribbean, probably from the migration of 99E. I need some storms to get cranking, so it satisfies my prediction of 21/7/4.

Of course, because a storm in the western Caribbean in October is always a good thing...

Quoting Gorty:


Extreme western NE and Great Lakes (might be eastern Great Lakes. See for yourself if you can access the GFS and get ready to be excited!

But I think the GFS might be slowly going with a coastal idea... Good for me in southern New England :D
Yep Euro shows a 988mb Low over the Great Lakes.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Of course, because a storm in the western Caribbean in October is always a good thing...

Now I did not say that, don't put words in my mouth!
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Now I did not say that, don't put words in my mouth!

I didn't say you did ;)
Quoting Gorty:
I am very pumped up for a potential snow storm that the GFS shows for the Northeast for the 19th. Maybe just maybe it will go coastal!

I will remind you of this post next April! It's funny how too much of a good thing spoils the moment. ;)
This has been one unusual hurricane season. I never expected it to turn out like this. I thought sure we were going to see more hurricanes and more powerful ones as well. So many negative factors out there for a neutral to La Nina season...very strange
Anybody else looking at the naked swirl of clouds in the Central/SW Gulf on the visible loop at the moment?
Quoting robert88:
This has been one unusual hurricane season. I never expected it to turn out like this. I thought sure we were going to see more hurricanes and more powerful ones as well. So many negative factors out there for a neutral to La Nina season...very strange

What do you mean "so many negative factors out there for a neutral to la Nina season"?

The lack of vertical instability is the sole reason for a lack of hurricanes and major hurricanes so far this season.
Quoting robert88:
This has been one unusual hurricane season. I never expected it to turn out like this. I thought sure we were going to see more hurricanes and more powerful ones as well. So many negative factors out there for a neutral to La Nina season...very strange
I think it has something to do with the vertical instability, dry air in the GOM, and wind shear in the Caribbean. The MDR & Cape Verde season has been active though. And of course how can we forget the series of trough splits that formed storms like Bret, Cindy, Franklin, and Gert.
Quoting robert88:
It's never over until it's over..but the the global models do not look to enthused...even with a strong MJO pulse on the horizon. It's very possible the Pacific steals the energy from that pulse and the 2011 season comes to an end. The Caribbean has been very hostile this year and there isn't any tropical waves migrating into that region. Time is running out..we shall see
As the atlantic wind patterns shows is over.Nothing will forms there.So put yours eyes in the Caribbean Sea.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
uh oh she is closing her eye wall.. u think she will get stronger?
Gulf of Mexico Vertical Instability:


Caribbean Vertical Instability:


East Coast Vertical Instability:


Tropical Atlantic Vertical Instability:


Sub-Tropical Atlantic Vertical Instability:

Quoting wunderweatherman123:
uh oh she is closing her eye wall.. u think she will get stronger?

If she does, it won't be much. Maybe enough to get to 110 mph, but I doubt it.

Mexico got very lucky, but is still very unlucky.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

If she does, it won't be much. Maybe enough to get to 110 mph, but I doubt it.

Mexico got very lucky, but is still very unlucky.
she finished her EWRC and starting to build an inner core and she has about what 6 to 10 hours before landfall? im seeing her at 105 to 115...
In a typical neutral to La Nina season you don't usually see the abundant of dry sinking air and SAL make it that far W. Wind shear was quite hostile at times also. The dry air that settled over TX also shut down business in the GOM as well.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
she finished her EWRC and starting to build an inner core and she has about what 6 to 10 hours before landfall? im seeing her at 105 to 115...

Give or take an hour or two.
If you are not a trained Meteorologist and did not digest the buoy data than you need to just lay low and maybe take some tropical meteorolgy courses. I guess this is an amateur site. You should visit some of the professional sites and see what's being said by fellow meteorologists


Quoting shred3590:


If you are sorry to sound rude, you would not have written that. Comments like this have been the downfall of this blog this year. Rather than take pot shots at posters, please explain why you believe that the NHC is wrong on this one.

Many people, myself included, are merely interested in weather, not trained professionals. The discourse on this blog will go back to the high quality it used to be if bloggers would say, "I disagree with that statement and here is why ..."
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Give or take an hour or two.
hour or two? never mind then. cat 2 at landfall i say
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
hour or two? never mind then. cat 2 at landfall i say

No, that isn't what I meant. You said it would make landfall in 6-10 hours or so, and I said give or take one or two hours from that (Somewhere between 4-12 hours from now).

To make it easier, I'll just say it will make landfall in 11 hours. :P

Somewhere between 100-110 mph.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, that isn't what I meant. You said it would make landfall in 6-10 hours or so, and I said give or take one or two hours from that (Somewhere between 4-12 hours from now).

To make it easier, I'll just say it will make landfall in 11 hours. :P

Somewhere between 100-110 mph.
still cat 2s are very rare on the pacific side of mexico... wish she was a ts but looks like cat can be confirmed..
Quoting portcharlotte:
If you are not a trained Meteorologist and did not digest the buoy data than you need to just lay low and maybe take some tropical meteorolgy courses. I guess this is an amateur site. You should visit some of the professional sites and see what's being said by fellow meteorologists




This is an amateur site. None of us here are trained professionals, it is just a hobby of ours. If you want to rant like a classless maniac at the NHC and the fellow users like you did, go somewhere else. It has no use here.
Quoting Gorty:
I am very pumped up for a potential snow storm that the GFS shows for the Northeast for the 19th. Maybe just maybe it will go coastal!
Really?! Off to have a look....
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Discussion maintains Jova at about the same strength until landfall.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 18.3N 105.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 19.3N 105.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
yeah 100 105 is a good bet
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Of course, because a storm in the western Caribbean in October is always a good thing...


Oh I remember that storm, my house didn't get its electricity back until Halloween as the trick-or-treaters were coming by.
jova just formed on infrared a very ragged eye. AVN infrared. check it out before is vanishes
93L was a extratropical mid latitiude cyclone. It wasn't subtropical or tropical...therefore it didn't warrant a name. Dry air getting sucked into the system blew up some powerful supercell T-storms over the gulfstream which brought the winds down to the surface. If you removed all the UL energy that was down there could the system still of powered itself? Nope....because There was no anticyclone sitting over it...so the air couldn't come over the center and come out at the top. NHC did their job with local authorities to give plenty of warning to folks in FL. I just can't believe all the bashing towards the NHC on all the weather blogs i have been reading....geez
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
jova just formed on infrared a very ragged eye. AVN infrared. check it out before is vanishes

Its going to appear in and out from time to time, but that doesn't mean it is weakening or strengthening.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
yeah 100 105 is a good bet


I can see that. Down 5 mb to 968 mb and up 5 mph to 105 by morning. In my opinion the infrared pics in the past couple hours show a slight improvement in organization.
159. Gorty
Quoting entrelac:
Really?! Off to have a look....


Though it is been so warm lately, not sure how much of that will actually be snow despite it being west of the 540 line.
Quoting robert88:
93L was a extratropical mid latitiude cyclone. It wasn't subtropical or tropical...therefore it didn't warrant a name. Dry air getting sucked into the system blew up some powerful supercell T-storms over the gulfstream which brought the winds down to the surface. If you removed all the UL energy that was down there could the system still of powered itself? Nope....because There was no anticyclone sitting over it...so the air couldn't come over the center and come out at the top. NHC did their job with local authorities to give plenty of warning to folks in FL. I just can't believe all the bashing towards the NHC on all the weather blogs i have been reading....geez

That's just false.
Re: #135 -- am I on Ignore? Anyone else noticing/have a thought on the swirl in the Western Gulf of Mexico? Thanks
Quoting OrchidGrower:
Re: #135 -- am I on Ignore? Anyone else noticing/have a thought on the swirl in the Western Gulf of Mexico? Thanks


Not on ignore you even got a few pluses for the post. I think a few have been noticing it today.
Good to see Jova has weakened some for folks in MX.
Quoting OrchidGrower:
Re: #135 -- am I on Ignore? Anyone else noticing/have a thought on the swirl in the Western Gulf of Mexico? Thanks


GFS panels from 12Z run today show nothing coming of it.

24 hours:



48 hours:



Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


GFS panels from 12Z run today show nothing coming of it.

24 hours:



48 hours:





Thanks, just been an interesting little swirl to watch today.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rgb.h tml
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's just false.


Your opinion...not the experts ;)
93L was closed. I had the west winds here. The surface center was ~40miles west of what was seen on radar (midlevels). It was somewhat elongated & sloppy at the surface. The center was north of me already on land before what was on radar hit KSC, it was within a very short time of it spinning up on radar. The center was on land from nearly if not the beginning..one of the many areas to look closely at all the data. The showers streaming in from the east flew over the obviously very shallow vorticity on radar..like a MCV. It was so small & ill stacked, the west side with convection was cold, the dry air it was sucking in the east side was warm. I stood in both. The rainband was cold the dry slot that arrived the next day was warm. It was bore out of a large area with other vorticity like a MCV out of a Mesoscale Convective System. We saw the ULL reflect on the surface of the east GOM finally on Oceansat that evening..weak & broad but the center of the MCS, that died sometime in the night. East coast one got in that sweet spot next to FL that spins things up.. Maybe had it had more time over water. It was a cyclone seed, tossed on land, but I'm not sure if it wasn't anything more than a mesoscale convective vortex.
It's a cute little swirl. Who knows the GFS could be wrong, although in first 48 hours it is reliable.

The 12Z run shows the usual west Caribbean/Yucatan low pressure mess hanging around after 300 hours. This run does not make it a hurricane.
Quoting robert88:


Your opinion...not the experts ;)

Yup.

Quoting Skyepony:
93L was closed. I had the west winds here. The surface center was ~40miles west of what was seen on radar (midlevels). It was somewhat elongated & sloppy at the surface. The center was north of me already on land before what was on radar hit KSC, it was within a very short time of it spinning up on radar. The center was on land from nearly if not the beginning..one of the many areas to look closely at all the data. The showers streaming in from the east flew over the obviously very shallow vorticity on radar..like a MCV. It was so small & ill stacked, the west side with convection was cold, the dry air it was sucking in the east side was warm. I stood in both. The rainband was cold the dry slot that arrived the next day was warm. It was bore out of a large area with other vorticity like a MCV out of a Mesoscale Convective System. We saw the ULL reflect on the surface of the east GOM finally on Oceansat that evening..weak & broad but the center of the MCS, that died sometime in the night. East coast one got in that sweet spot next to FL that spins things up.. Maybe had it had more time over water. It was a cyclone seed, tossed on land, but I'm not sure if it wasn't anything more than a mesoscale convective vortex.

If it was closed, it was a Subtropical storm, not an MCV.
Quoting Skyepony:
93L was closed. I had the west winds here. The surface center was ~40miles west of what was seen on radar (midlevels). It was somewhat elongated & sloppy at the surface. The center was north of me already on land before what was on radar hit KSC, it was within a very short time of it spinning up on radar. The center was on land from nearly if not the beginning..one of the many areas to look closely at all the data. The showers streaming in from the east flew over the obviously very shallow vorticity on radar..like a MCV. It was so small & ill stacked, the west side with convection was cold, the dry air it was sucking in the east side was warm. I stood in both. The rainband was cold the dry slot that arrived the next day was warm. It was bore out of a large area with other vorticity like a MCV out of a Mesoscale Convective System. We saw the ULL reflect on the surface of the east GOM finally on Oceansat that evening..weak & broad but the center of the MCS, that died sometime in the night. East coast one got in that sweet spot next to FL that spins things up.. Maybe had it had more time over water. It was a cyclone seed, tossed on land, but I'm not sure if it wasn't anything more than a mesoscale convective vortex.

Interesting...
Thanks, folks.... Besides never wanting to be taken unawares by a developing tropical system, I have to confess that I'm not ready for South Florida's rainy season to come to an end yet!! (Thanks again)
hitting the 2011 water supply e cen fl. the no name will get one soon. hopefully a wrong name wont get retired. if that happens heads should roll


Looks like Jova trying to reform her eyewall. She is also south of the forecast track by NHC.
NHC just moved their forecast track south for Jova
Quoting Gorty:
I am very pumped up for a potential snow storm that the GFS shows for the Northeast for the 19th. Maybe just maybe it will go coastal!
Snow storm already ,,brrrrrrr,.. wow


closer view
I wonder if the further southward track of Jova increases the chance that her remnant low could cross into the W. Caribbean (or Gulf).
Quoting robert88:
93L was a extratropical mid latitiude cyclone. It wasn't subtropical or tropical...therefore it didn't warrant a name. Dry air getting sucked into the system blew up some powerful supercell T-storms over the gulfstream which brought the winds down to the surface. If you removed all the UL energy that was down there could the system still of powered itself? Nope....because There was no anticyclone sitting over it...so the air couldn't come over the center and come out at the top. NHC did their job with local authorities to give plenty of warning to folks in FL. I just can't believe all the bashing towards the NHC on all the weather blogs i have been reading....geez



Mid Latitude is probably most likely and the reason why NHC did not step it up to a Storm of some type with a Name. True that even a Mid Latitude can bring the winds to the surface as we can see this over land during winter events.
Jova may have weakened some, but it is still a very powerful hurricane and a horrible situation for Mexico.
I'll take Skye's opinion as the last word, for now. Maybe in the off-season the NHC will change the designation. In the meantime, we know that Skye certainly has the knowledge on the subject, and she has the added advantage of actually being there and feeling the weather.
Quoting wn1995:
Jova may have weakened some, but it is still a very powerful hurricane and a horrible situation for Mexico.
its already the "wild wild west" terms my friends have given me while traveling through that area of the world
184. Gorty
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I'll take Skye's opinion as the last word, for now. Maybe in the off-season the NHC will change the designation. In the meantime, we know that Skye certainly has the knowledge on the subject, and she has the added advantage of actually being there and feeling the weather.


So? I been in noreasters before (not in winter) and had wind of TS force and heavy rain, but was not deemed a TS.

NHC knows more than us.
Quoting OrchidGrower:
I wonder if the further southward track of Jova increases the chance that her remnant low could cross into the W. Caribbean (or Gulf).


NHC changed the track back to the north on their 5pm update
Quoting Gorty:


So? I been in noreasters before (not in winter) and had wind of TS force and heavy rain, but was not deemed a TS.

NHC knows more than us.


I agree with ya, but one thing that was puzzling to me as i was watching the one bouy was it seemed to be a warm core system! As it went across as one could seem to see a rise and fall in temperature. I don't know whom is correct but, i do know that NHC will end up doing the correct thing as it will evaluate it later.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


I can see that. Down 5 mb to 968 mb and up 5 mph to 105 by morning. In my opinion the infrared pics in the past couple hours show a slight improvement in organization.

IMO also,seems to be trying reform her eyewall
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yup.


If it was closed, it was a Subtropical storm, not an MCV.


MCV can be closed at the surface. They aren't nicknamed landcanes for being midlevel..

Subtropical storms come from ULLs that make it to the surface, extratropical storms & from Mesoscale lows. The later used to be caused a neutercane.


So if it was a Subtropical Cyclone what was it bore out of? & how long was it that before you think it should have been called a Subtropical storm & what about the Low reflecting on the surface of the GOM at the same time on Oceansat?.. 93L the tiny low was wrapped up in all that, then became the dominant low after landfall..Isn't that part of the definition of a MCC & it's MCV?




Yes!!.Jova is weakning rapidly!!
Quoting TampaSpin:



Mid Latitude is probably most likely and the reason why NHC did not step it up to a Storm of some type with a Name. True that even a Mid Latitude can bring the winds to the surface as we can see this over land during winter events.


Yes indeed...This is my take on 93L. It was a similar deal like the big curled up mid level latitude systems that spawned all the tornadoes this past spring. Dry air gets entrained into the system and sets off powerful T-storms. 93L just fed off the gulfstream over the ocean.



I can't believe someone in the ConUs did not get one of these this year. Yes i know the season is not over but, it is on its way out now.
EP102011 - Hurricane JOVA

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery


..click image for storm centered Loop




http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t7/sloop-vis.html

Very, VERY nasty weather will be arriving in Mexico very shortly.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I'll take Skye's opinion as the last word, for now. Maybe in the off-season the NHC will change the designation. In the meantime, we know that Skye certainly has the knowledge on the subject, and she has the added advantage of actually being there and feeling the weather.


Even better was my location, as I was 5 miles as the crow flies from where the center actually made landfall at Port Canaveral/Cape Canaveral (as confirmed by the NWS Melbourne in a message I sent to them via Facebook). I live just across the Banana River in Merritt Island... I noticed a marked temperature rise as the center approached the coast. The temperature went from 70 degrees at 7pm to 78 at around 11pm or so. And when I looked up in the sky... the glare from the city lights along the coast showed a counter-clockwise rotation as it passed. And I had winds veer from NE-NNE at storm force, then winds went light (less than 10 mph) for a time, then veered around to the W, then WSW as the center passed just north of me. It is from my experience in the past that a temperature rise is common with a tropical system, not sure what the temps aloft were doing though.
EP102011 - Hurricane JOVA

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (1km Mercator, MODIS/AVHRR)

Quoting TampaSpin:



I can't believe someone in the ConUs did not get one of these this year. Yes i know the season is not over but, it is on its way out now.
After the 2004 and 05 season's where we here in the U.S were getting our a** kicked by hurricanes left and right.Well we don't need to see something like that for at least ten years.
Quoting Skyepony:


MCV can be closed at the surface. They aren't nicknamed landcanes for being midlevel..

Subtropical storms come from ULLs that make it to the surface, extratropical storms & from Mesoscale lows. The later used to be caused a neutercane.


So if it was a Subtropical Cyclone what was it bore out of? & how long was it that before you think it should have been called a Subtropical storm & what about the Low reflecting on the surface of the GOM at the same time on Oceansat?.. 93L the tiny low was wrapped up in all that, then became the dominant low after landfall..Isn't that part of the definition of a MCC & it's MCV?






By Definition........i would say you are correct!

Mesoscale low
A second type of subtropical cyclone is a mesoscale low originating in or near a frontolyzing zone of horizontal wind shear, also known as a dying frontal zone, with radius of maximum sustained winds generally less than 50 kilometers (31 mi). The entire circulation may initially have a diameter of less than 160 kilometers (99 mi). These generally short-lived systems may be either cold core or warm core, and in 1972 this type of subtropical cyclone was referred to as a "neutercane".



Quoting TampaSpin:



I can't believe someone in the ConUs did not get one of these this year. Yes i know the season is not over but, it is on its way out now.


I thought for sure the CONUS would of seen a Charley or Ivan etc. The Caribbean was shut down for business. Very stable and hostile conditions down there this season. I sure didn't expect that in a neutral to La Nina season.
Quoting robert88:


I thought for sure the CONUS would of seen a Charley or Ivan etc. The Caribbean was shut down for business. Very stable and hostile conditions down there this season. I sure didn't expect that in a neutral to La Nina season.
I hope we don't see it in....2012.Ahah(Bad joke don't shoot me down for it though).
Quoting Patrap:
EP102011 - Hurricane JOVA

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (1km Mercator, MODIS/AVHRR)

shes maintaining herself cat 2 at landfall is likely
just wondering if anyone has the model forecast 1 week ago, before this weekend's mesosubextraitisitisntstorm 93L to see which one was closest to what actually happened.
Quoting Skyepony:
93L was closed. I had the west winds here. The surface center was ~40miles west of what was seen on radar (midlevels). It was somewhat elongated & sloppy at the surface. The center was north of me already on land before what was on radar hit KSC, it was within a very short time of it spinning up on radar. The center was on land from nearly if not the beginning..one of the many areas to look closely at all the data. The showers streaming in from the east flew over the obviously very shallow vorticity on radar..like a MCV. It was so small & ill stacked, the west side with convection was cold, the dry air it was sucking in the east side was warm. I stood in both. The rainband was cold the dry slot that arrived the next day was warm. It was bore out of a large area with other vorticity like a MCV out of a Mesoscale Convective System. We saw the ULL reflect on the surface of the east GOM finally on Oceansat that evening..weak & broad but the center of the MCS, that died sometime in the night. East coast one got in that sweet spot next to FL that spins things up.. Maybe had it had more time over water. It was a cyclone seed, tossed on land, but I'm not sure if it wasn't anything more than a mesoscale convective vortex.

Hold on a minute there, sky.

The radar was not looking into the mid levels of the system. Mid levels of the troposphere are usually defined around 850/800mbs up to around 500mbs.

Look at the radar loop below and you will see the circulation is only 10 or 20 miles from the radar location (denoted by the white plus sign). At 10-20 miles (no, not 40 miles, check Google Earth if you don't believe me), the radar beam is less than 2,000 feet above the surface of the earth, which is absolutely not the mid levels of the Earth. It was looking aroud the 950mb level, which is the low levels of the atmosphere.





Regardless, surface observations found that the circulation was closed at the surface. Surface observations also support the fact that the circulation was not hanging around over land the whole time like you say.



Melbourne International Airport



Ocean Drive, Vero Beach

Quoting robert88:


I thought for sure the CONUS would of seen a Charley or Ivan etc. The Caribbean was shut down for business. Very stable and hostile conditions down there this season. I sure didn't expect that in a neutral to La Nina season.



NOT over yet as i was just in the GOM and its still plenty warm yet. Fingers crossed!
I see we are still discussing the mess that was 93, as it will always be remembered. It was an aborted attempt at a subtropical system. It did not obtain a clear closed circulation and should go in the pile where invests go. NHC, do NOT name this system!
Quoting FrankZapper:
I see we are still discussing the mess that was 93, as it will always be remembered. It was an aborted attempt at a subtropical system. It did not obtain a clear closed circulation and should go in the pile where invests go. NHC, do NOT name this system!
I'm way over 93L to.
Quoting Skyepony:


MCV can be closed at the surface. They aren't nicknamed landcanes for being midlevel..

Subtropical storms come from ULLs that make it to the surface, extratropical storms & from Mesoscale lows. The later used to be caused a neutercane.


So if it was a Subtropical Cyclone what was it bore out of? & how long was it that before you think it should have been called a Subtropical storm & what about the Low reflecting on the surface of the GOM at the same time on Oceansat?.. 93L the tiny low was wrapped up in all that, then became the dominant low after landfall..Isn't that part of the definition of a MCC & it's MCV?






While we are at it and just for fun, here is an interesting radar image of the somewhat famous MCV in May of 2009. This guy was pretty much a land-cane, but obviously was never designated a true tropical system. Stu Ostro had a good blog on it.
Link


Quoting robert88:
93L was a extratropical mid latitiude cyclone. It wasn't subtropical or tropical...therefore it didn't warrant a name. Dry air getting sucked into the system blew up some powerful supercell T-storms over the gulfstream which brought the winds down to the surface. If you removed all the UL energy that was down there could the system still of powered itself? Nope....because There was no anticyclone sitting over it...so the air couldn't come over the center and come out at the top.
Which is exactly why it's subtropical...subtropical meaning it is a hybrid of both tropical and extratropical processes. It had convection at the surface and was indeed a warm core system according to all AMSU satellite passes and model cyclone phase diagrams, but it was being supported by divergence aloft.
Quoting FrankZapper:
I see we are still discussing the mess that was 93, as it will always be remembered. It was an aborted attempt at a subtropical system. It did not obtain a clear closed circulation and should go in the pile where invests go. NHC, do NOT name this system!
It absolutely did obtain a closed surface circulation. Surface observations and radar (radar at the low levels) confirm this.
93L clearly had a closed circulation, observations showed it. Those who chose to ignore the facts and blindly follow the NHC need to get some new glasses

I am one of the last to blast the NHC most of the time, but they missed the boat on this one. The impact this system had on parts of Florida is bigger then some realize.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm way over 93L to.


Yeah, the discussion was interesting and warranted, but there are bigger things going on right now.

Like Jova, which is about to slam into Mexico.
Quoting robert88:


Your opinion...not the experts ;)
Really? Why did the NHC have it listed as a subtropical storm then?

From the 18z ATCF file

AL, 93, 2011100918, , BEST, 0, 274N, 794W, 35, 1007, SS




No, they did not name it at this time, but they did believe it was subtropical.
I feel it is appropriate to share this response which I received from James Franklin, one of the NHC forecasters, after I inquired on the issue of 93L and why it was not named on the spot. I feel that it is ok for me to share this since they have developed this response for all questions related to 93L's treatment by the NHC.

Dear Levi,

We've gotten a few inquiries on this, and prepared the following by way of response:

During the weekend of 8-9 October, the state of Florida was affected by a large and complex weather system, one that was not designated as a tropical or subtropical cyclone operationally by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Watches, warnings, and forecasts for this system were provided by local National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs), most notably WFO Melbourne and WFO Jacksonville, while marine analyses and forecasts were provided by NHC's Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB).

There have been a number of inquiries as to whether this system was a tropical or subtropical cyclone. It is not uncommon for NHC to reclassify a system after an event based on a post-storm analysis, adding it to the historical record as an unnamed tropical or subtropical cyclone. A post-storm analysis is planned for this system to see whether it met either of the following definitions:

Tropical cyclone - A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere.

Subtropical cyclone - A non-frontal low pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. This system is typically an upper-level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the center. In comparison to tropical cyclones, such systems have a relatively broad zone of maximum winds that is located farther from the center, and typically have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.

Nature is capable of generating a wide spectrum of low-pressure systems that don't always neatly fit into the classification systems developed by meteorologists. The weather system that affected Florida this weekend contained characteristics of both tropical and non-tropical weather systems, making its classification difficult. Because of the system's non-tropical origins, the initial warning products on the system originated from NWS WFOs, and in fact the potential impacts of this event had been advertised in WFO products up to a week in advance.

During the afternoon of 9 October, a broad area of low pressure developed off the Florida east coast. Even before this time, gale-force winds were occurring over a large area offshore, and reached the coast by the late afternoon. In some respects the system resembled a subtropical cyclone at this time. During the evening, however, the low became better defined and strengthened near the Florida coast, briefly accompanied by a very small core of strong winds more characteristic of a tropical cyclone. These winds affected the Cape Canaveral area. During the event, WFO Melbourne issued a High Wind Warning for several coastal counties and a Storm Warning for the coastal waters -both rare issuances.

The overriding consideration for NHC not to name this system during the late afternoon or evening hours was a desire to preserve the flow of watch/warning/hazard information that had been coming from the NWS WFOs. NHC coordinated warning options with the affected WFOs throughout the day Sunday. Because the hazardous weather conditions were already occurring by the time the cyclone and its circulation had become well defined, it was agreed that users would be best served by not abruptly changing the product/warning suite to tropical/subtropical issuances, with the ultimate status of the system to be determined from a post-storm analysis.

I hope this is helpful in explaining how this system was handled.

Regards,

James
--
James L. Franklin

Branch Chief, Hurricane Specialist Unit
NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center


Notice how he says that 93L exhibited both non-tropical and tropical characteristics. In other words, they acknowledge that it was at least partially warm-core, and likely deserves some sort of classification, but they decided to wait until after the fact in order to avoid disrupting the flow of warning products being given to the public through the local NWS WFOs. I can understand this line of reasoning, and obviously we don't know anything about how coordination between offices works and the dynamics of communicating with the public. I'm sure they were trying to keep the public's best interest in mind. I fully expect them to upgrade invest 93L to an unnamed subtropical or tropical storm after post-analysis.
Um yeah 93L=dead.Move along people nothing to see here.
The NHC has generational experience that DIRECTLY impacts their reasoning and issuance's.









Quoting Levi32:
I feel it is appropriate to share this response which I received from James Franklin, one of the NHC forecasters, after I inquired on the issue of 93L and why it was not named on the spot. I feel that it is ok for me to share this since they have developed this response for all questions related to 93L's treatment by the NHC.

Dear Levi,

We've gotten a few inquiries on this, and prepared the following by way of response:

During the weekend of 8-9 October, the state of Florida was affected by a large and complex weather system, one that was not designated as a tropical or subtropical cyclone operationally by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Watches, warnings, and forecasts for this system were provided by local National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs), most notably WFO Melbourne and WFO Jacksonville, while marine analyses and forecasts were provided by NHC%u2019s Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB).

There have been a number of inquiries as to whether this system was a tropical or subtropical cyclone. It is not uncommon for NHC to reclassify a system after an event based on a post-storm analysis, adding it to the historical record as an unnamed tropical or subtropical cyclone. A post-storm analysis is planned for this system to see whether it met either of the following definitions:

Tropical cyclone - A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere.

Subtropical cyclone - A non-frontal low pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. This system is typically an upper-level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the center. In comparison to tropical cyclones, such systems have a relatively broad zone of maximum winds that is located farther from the center, and typically have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.

Nature is capable of generating a wide spectrum of low-pressure systems that don%u2019t always neatly fit into the classification systems developed by meteorologists. The weather system that affected Florida this weekend contained characteristics of both tropical and non-tropical weather systems, making its classification difficult. Because of the system%u2019s non-tropical origins, the initial warning products on the system originated from NWS WFOs, and in fact the potential impacts of this event had been advertised in WFO products up to a week in advance.

During the afternoon of 9 October, a broad area of low pressure developed off the Florida east coast. Even before this time, gale-force winds were occurring over a large area offshore, and reached the coast by the late afternoon. In some respects the system resembled a subtropical cyclone at this time. During the evening, however, the low became better defined and strengthened near the Florida coast, briefly accompanied by a very small core of strong winds more characteristic of a tropical cyclone. These winds affected the Cape Canaveral area. During the event, WFO Melbourne issued a High Wind Warning for several coastal counties and a Storm Warning for the coastal waters -both rare issuances.

The overriding consideration for NHC not to name this system during the late afternoon or evening hours was a desire to preserve the flow of watch/warning/hazard information that had been coming from the NWS WFOs. NHC coordinated warning options with the affected WFOs throughout the day Sunday. Because the hazardous weather conditions were already occurring by the time the cyclone and its circulation had become well defined, it was agreed that users would be best served by not abruptly changing the product/warning suite to tropical/subtropical issuances, with the ultimate status of the system to be determined from a post-storm analysis.

I hope this is helpful in explaining how this system was handled.

Regards,

James
--
James L. Franklin

Branch Chief, Hurricane Specialist Unit
NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center


Notice how he says that 93L exhibited both subtropical and tropical characteristics. In other words, they acknowledge that it was warm-core, and likely deserves some sort of classification, but they decided to wait until after the fact in order to avoid disrupting the flow of warning products being given to the public through the local NWS WFOs. I can understand this line of reasoning, and obviously we don't know anything about how coordination between offices works and the dynamics of communicating with the public. I'm sure they were trying to keep the public's best interest in mind. I fully expect them to upgrade invest 93L to an unnamed subtropical or tropical storm after post-analysis.


Not to quote someone who was on the other side of the fence last night but

"That;s good enough for me"
Quoting Levi32:
I feel it is appropriate to share this response which I received from James Franklin, one of the NHC forecasters, after I inquired on the issue of 93L and why it was not named on the spot. I feel that it is ok for me to share this since they have developed this response for all questions related to 93L's treatment by the NHC.

Dear Levi,

We've gotten a few inquiries on this, and prepared the following by way of response:

During the weekend of 8-9 October, the state of Florida was affected by a large and complex weather system, one that was not designated as a tropical or subtropical cyclone operationally by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Watches, warnings, and forecasts for this system were provided by local National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs), most notably WFO Melbourne and WFO Jacksonville, while marine analyses and forecasts were provided by NHC’s Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB).

There have been a number of inquiries as to whether this system was a tropical or subtropical cyclone. It is not uncommon for NHC to reclassify a system after an event based on a post-storm analysis, adding it to the historical record as an unnamed tropical or subtropical cyclone. A post-storm analysis is planned for this system to see whether it met either of the following definitions:

Tropical cyclone - A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere.

Subtropical cyclone - A non-frontal low pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. This system is typically an upper-level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the center. In comparison to tropical cyclones, such systems have a relatively broad zone of maximum winds that is located farther from the center, and typically have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.

Nature is capable of generating a wide spectrum of low-pressure systems that don’t always neatly fit into the classification systems developed by meteorologists. The weather system that affected Florida this weekend contained characteristics of both tropical and non-tropical weather systems, making its classification difficult. Because of the system’s non-tropical origins, the initial warning products on the system originated from NWS WFOs, and in fact the potential impacts of this event had been advertised in WFO products up to a week in advance.

During the afternoon of 9 October, a broad area of low pressure developed off the Florida east coast. Even before this time, gale-force winds were occurring over a large area offshore, and reached the coast by the late afternoon. In some respects the system resembled a subtropical cyclone at this time. During the evening, however, the low became better defined and strengthened near the Florida coast, briefly accompanied by a very small core of strong winds more characteristic of a tropical cyclone. These winds affected the Cape Canaveral area. During the event, WFO Melbourne issued a High Wind Warning for several coastal counties and a Storm Warning for the coastal waters -both rare issuances.

The overriding consideration for NHC not to name this system during the late afternoon or evening hours was a desire to preserve the flow of watch/warning/hazard information that had been coming from the NWS WFOs. NHC coordinated warning options with the affected WFOs throughout the day Sunday. Because the hazardous weather conditions were already occurring by the time the cyclone and its circulation had become well defined, it was agreed that users would be best served by not abruptly changing the product/warning suite to tropical/subtropical issuances, with the ultimate status of the system to be determined from a post-storm analysis.

I hope this is helpful in explaining how this system was handled.

Regards,

James
--
James L. Franklin

Branch Chief, Hurricane Specialist Unit
NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center


Notice how he says that 93L exhibited both subtropical and tropical characteristics. In other words, they acknowledge that it was warm-core, and likely deserves some sort of classification, but they decided to wait until after the fact in order to avoid disrupting the flow of warning products being given to the public through the local NWS WFOs. I can understand this line of reasoning, and obviously we don't know anything about how coordination between offices works and the dynamics of communicating with the public. I'm sure they were trying to keep their best interest in mind. I fully expect them to upgrade invest 93L to an unnamed subtropical or tropical storm after post-analysis.


Thank you for sharing, Levi
Quoting TomTaylor:

Hold on a minute there, sky.

The radar was not looking into the mid levels of the system. Mid levels of the troposphere are usually defined around 850/800mbs up to around 500mbs.

Look at the radar loop below and you will see the circulation is only 10 or 20 miles from the radar location (denoted by the white plus sign). At 10-20 miles (no, not 40 miles, check Google Earth if you don't believe me), the radar beam is less than 2,000 feet above the surface of the earth, which is absolutely not the mid levels of the Earth. It was looking aroud the 950mb level, which is the low levels of the atmosphere.





Regardless, surface observations found that the circulation was closed at the surface. Surface observations also support the fact that the circulation was not hanging around over land the whole time like you say.



Melbourne International Airport



Ocean Drive, Vero Beach



Forgot to post station TRDF1- Trident Pier, located in Port Canaveral. It showed a surface pressure of 999.5 mb and NNW winds of 2kt at 11:42pm, followed by a pressure of 999.9mb and W winds at 1kt at 11:48pm, then a pressure of 1000.0mb and SW winds at 6kt at 11:54pm. Closed circulation. Air temp went from 21C to 24C.
EP102011 - Hurricane JOVA


Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

the GFS ecwmf and the canadian models all have a Tropical depression forming in around 110 Hrs and moving it towards western cuba and South Florida , so something to keep a close eye on
JOVA

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

..click image for Loop

Quoting Skyepony:


MCV can be closed at the surface. They aren't nicknamed landcanes for being midlevel..

Subtropical storms come from ULLs that make it to the surface, extratropical storms & from Mesoscale lows. The later used to be caused a neutercane.


So if it was a Subtropical Cyclone what was it bore out of? & how long was it that before you think it should have been called a Subtropical storm & what about the Low reflecting on the surface of the GOM at the same time on Oceansat?.. 93L the tiny low was wrapped up in all that, then became the dominant low after landfall..Isn't that part of the definition of a MCC & it's MCV?




It bore out of an upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico creating divergence aloft which naturally favors rising air or convection.

Also, you forget to mention that subtropical lows can form with ULLs nearby, they do not have to be stacked over the system.
223. Gorty
18z GFS has my first Alberta Clipper for Oct. 26! Wohoo, snow before Halloween, I live in southern New England... but it also backed off on the winter storm idea for the most part for the 19th.

I think what the GFS is moreso hinting at is a colder pattern for the end of the month and on into Nov.
Quoting Levi32:
I feel it is appropriate to share this response which I received from James Franklin, one of the NHC forecasters, after I inquired on the issue of 93L and why it was not named on the spot. I feel that it is ok for me to share this since they have developed this response for all questions related to 93L's treatment by the NHC.

Dear Levi,

We've gotten a few inquiries on this, and prepared the following by way of response:

During the weekend of 8-9 October, the state of Florida was affected by a large and complex weather system, one that was not designated as a tropical or subtropical cyclone operationally by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Watches, warnings, and forecasts for this system were provided by local National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs), most notably WFO Melbourne and WFO Jacksonville, while marine analyses and forecasts were provided by NHC's Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB).

There have been a number of inquiries as to whether this system was a tropical or subtropical cyclone. It is not uncommon for NHC to reclassify a system after an event based on a post-storm analysis, adding it to the historical record as an unnamed tropical or subtropical cyclone. A post-storm analysis is planned for this system to see whether it met either of the following definitions:

Tropical cyclone - A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere.

Subtropical cyclone - A non-frontal low pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. This system is typically an upper-level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the center. In comparison to tropical cyclones, such systems have a relatively broad zone of maximum winds that is located farther from the center, and typically have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.

Nature is capable of generating a wide spectrum of low-pressure systems that don't always neatly fit into the classification systems developed by meteorologists. The weather system that affected Florida this weekend contained characteristics of both tropical and non-tropical weather systems, making its classification difficult. Because of the system's non-tropical origins, the initial warning products on the system originated from NWS WFOs, and in fact the potential impacts of this event had been advertised in WFO products up to a week in advance.

During the afternoon of 9 October, a broad area of low pressure developed off the Florida east coast. Even before this time, gale-force winds were occurring over a large area offshore, and reached the coast by the late afternoon. In some respects the system resembled a subtropical cyclone at this time. During the evening, however, the low became better defined and strengthened near the Florida coast, briefly accompanied by a very small core of strong winds more characteristic of a tropical cyclone. These winds affected the Cape Canaveral area. During the event, WFO Melbourne issued a High Wind Warning for several coastal counties and a Storm Warning for the coastal waters -both rare issuances.

The overriding consideration for NHC not to name this system during the late afternoon or evening hours was a desire to preserve the flow of watch/warning/hazard information that had been coming from the NWS WFOs. NHC coordinated warning options with the affected WFOs throughout the day Sunday. Because the hazardous weather conditions were already occurring by the time the cyclone and its circulation had become well defined, it was agreed that users would be best served by not abruptly changing the product/warning suite to tropical/subtropical issuances, with the ultimate status of the system to be determined from a post-storm analysis.

I hope this is helpful in explaining how this system was handled.

Regards,

James
--
James L. Franklin

Branch Chief, Hurricane Specialist Unit
NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center


Notice how he says that 93L exhibited both non-tropical and tropical characteristics. In other words, they acknowledge that it was at least partially warm-core, and likely deserves some sort of classification, but they decided to wait until after the fact in order to avoid disrupting the flow of warning products being given to the public through the local NWS WFOs. I can understand this line of reasoning, and obviously we don't know anything about how coordination between offices works and the dynamics of communicating with the public. I'm sure they were trying to keep the public's best interest in mind. I fully expect them to upgrade invest 93L to an unnamed subtropical or tropical storm after post-analysis.


Which goes well with my line of thinking when I posted a link to a previous storm and their decisions not to issue warnings (Olga 2007) for Puerto Rico. It (93L) was well handled by the WFO out of Melbourne. They issued Special Weather Statements, High Wind Warnings, Flood Warnings, etc. And that would have possibly disrupted the flow of information given out to the public at that point.

I did take a moment on Facebook to recognize the NWS Melbourne for all their hard work on this system as it came calling. They acted very quick to get information to the public as soon as things started to unfold.
Quoting Levi32:
I feel it is appropriate to share this response which I received from James Franklin, one of the NHC forecasters, after I inquired on the issue of 93L and why it was not named on the spot. I feel that it is ok for me to share this since they have developed this response for all questions related to 93L's treatment by the NHC.

Dear Levi,

We've gotten a few inquiries on this, and prepared the following by way of response:

During the weekend of 8-9 October, the state of Florida was affected by a large and complex weather system, one that was not designated as a tropical or subtropical cyclone operationally by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Watches, warnings, and forecasts for this system were provided by local National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs), most notably WFO Melbourne and WFO Jacksonville, while marine analyses and forecasts were provided by NHC's Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB).

There have been a number of inquiries as to whether this system was a tropical or subtropical cyclone. It is not uncommon for NHC to reclassify a system after an event based on a post-storm analysis, adding it to the historical record as an unnamed tropical or subtropical cyclone. A post-storm analysis is planned for this system to see whether it met either of the following definitions:

Tropical cyclone - A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere.

Subtropical cyclone - A non-frontal low pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. This system is typically an upper-level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the center. In comparison to tropical cyclones, such systems have a relatively broad zone of maximum winds that is located farther from the center, and typically have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.

Nature is capable of generating a wide spectrum of low-pressure systems that don't always neatly fit into the classification systems developed by meteorologists. The weather system that affected Florida this weekend contained characteristics of both tropical and non-tropical weather systems, making its classification difficult. Because of the system's non-tropical origins, the initial warning products on the system originated from NWS WFOs, and in fact the potential impacts of this event had been advertised in WFO products up to a week in advance.

During the afternoon of 9 October, a broad area of low pressure developed off the Florida east coast. Even before this time, gale-force winds were occurring over a large area offshore, and reached the coast by the late afternoon. In some respects the system resembled a subtropical cyclone at this time. During the evening, however, the low became better defined and strengthened near the Florida coast, briefly accompanied by a very small core of strong winds more characteristic of a tropical cyclone. These winds affected the Cape Canaveral area. During the event, WFO Melbourne issued a High Wind Warning for several coastal counties and a Storm Warning for the coastal waters -both rare issuances.

The overriding consideration for NHC not to name this system during the late afternoon or evening hours was a desire to preserve the flow of watch/warning/hazard information that had been coming from the NWS WFOs. NHC coordinated warning options with the affected WFOs throughout the day Sunday. Because the hazardous weather conditions were already occurring by the time the cyclone and its circulation had become well defined, it was agreed that users would be best served by not abruptly changing the product/warning suite to tropical/subtropical issuances, with the ultimate status of the system to be determined from a post-storm analysis.

I hope this is helpful in explaining how this system was handled.

Regards,

James
--
James L. Franklin

Branch Chief, Hurricane Specialist Unit
NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center


Notice how he says that 93L exhibited both non-tropical and tropical characteristics. In other words, they acknowledge that it was at least partially warm-core, and likely deserves some sort of classification, but they decided to wait until after the fact in order to avoid disrupting the flow of warning products being given to the public through the local NWS WFOs. I can understand this line of reasoning, and obviously we don't know anything about how coordination between offices works and the dynamics of communicating with the public. I'm sure they were trying to keep the public's best interest in mind. I fully expect them to upgrade invest 93L to an unnamed subtropical or tropical storm after post-analysis.
Very cool to see the NHC respond to the public like that, props to them.

Also looks like they also believe it was subtropical too, they just didn't upgrade it for the sake of not wasting warnings on a storm that would be overland in an hour. No surprise there.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Very cool to see the NHC respond to the public like that, props to them.

Also looks like they also believe it was subtropical too, they just didn't upgrade it for the sake of not wasting warnings on a storm that would be overland in an hour. No surprise there.


Id like to know what robert88 and Frank have to say about the NHCs response. They basically justified all of us who felt this should have been classified

and it will be in post-season
Why does the NHC advisory say Jova is at 100 MPH and the Wunderground one say's 95 MPH? It's the same advisory.
Good evening.
Quoting Levi32:
I feel it is appropriate to share this response which I received from James Franklin, one of the NHC forecasters, after I inquired on the issue of 93L and why it was not named on the spot. I feel that it is ok for me to share this since they have developed this response for all questions related to 93L's treatment by the NHC.

Dear Levi,................
Notice how he says that 93L exhibited both non-tropical and tropical characteristics. In other words, they acknowledge that it was at least partially warm-core, and likely deserves some sort of classification, but they decided to wait until after the fact in order to avoid disrupting the flow of warning products being given to the public through the local NWS WFOs. I can understand this line of reasoning, and obviously we don't know anything about how coordination between offices works and the dynamics of communicating with the public. I'm sure they were trying to keep the public's best interest in mind. I fully expect them to upgrade invest 93L to an unnamed subtropical or tropical storm after post-analysis.

Cool how they actually responded. I'm pretty darn sure that 93L will be upgraded in post-season analysis.
230. wjdow
If you believe the NHC, which I do, given the short amount of time that invest 93 might have become a named system, they elected not to name the system and thereby interrupt the local warning system that was already active. Some people on this blog hammered NHC for not making the correct technical call as soon as they might have, but in retrospect NHC appears to have made the best decision consistent with its mission of helping to protect lives and property. Do people agree? Thank you, Levi for your post.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Id like to know what robert88 and Frank have to say about the NHCs response. They basically justified all of us who felt this should have been classified

and it will be in post-season


Yeah, and they way they went about it did make sense. All of those warnings, watches, and advisories were already out.

To be honest, even though it wasn't named, people down there had the same amount of warning, the potential was talked about for days by private and public sectors alike, and the NWS offices did a great job covering the situation and doing what needed to be done.
jova still 100mph. u guys think she will be this strong at landfall?
Seems like every year, at some point I post a copy of the NHC Mission statement... I will bold a part I think some people forget:


Mission
(Why We Exist)

To save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic

efficiency
by issuing the best watches, warnings,

forecasts and analyses of hazardous tropical

weather, and by increasing understanding of these hazards.

Vision
(What We Hope to Achieve)

To be America's calm, clear and trusted

voice in the eye of the storm,

and, with our partners, enable communities

to be safe from tropical weather threats.

================================

There have been scholarly papers written on the "cost per mile" to the economy caused by Hurricane warnings. I am confident that costs are incurred due to lost productivity etc. even from "Tropical storm warnings". In years past, the NHC suffered very strong criticism by both the Bahamas and the Florida Keys (two that I know of) for substantial economic damage done to their tourist based economies, after warnings were issued for systems which were "marginal".

It behooves the forecasters... since it IS a part of the official Mission Statement, to take economic and other factors into consideration when naming a system. Ivory Tower meteorologists may want an exact criteria to be followed in naming systems, however, in my opinion, the NHC MUST take other factors into consideration... and sort out any questionable definition details in later analysis.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
jova still 100mph. u guys think she will be this strong at landfall?


I think it will be. Maybe slightly weaker, but not by much, so it won't make much of a difference for Mexico.
Is Jova going to bring rain to drought-stricken Western Texas?
Just want to throw in my 2 cents on 93L, I'm no expert by any means, but I think 93L was handled appropriately by the NHC, it was one those systems that you're damn if you do and damned if you don't, frankly to me it only looked like a STS after it was over land and they(NHC) did issued gale warnings as is appropriate for any hybrid/cold/warm core system, but just for arguments sake it can be said" a rose by any other name is still a rose" , just some roses smell a little better than others :)
000
ABNT20 KNHC 112333
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE OCT 11 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI






Why? WHYYYYYYY??
Quoting TampaSpin:



NOT over yet as i was just in the GOM and its still plenty warm yet. Fingers crossed!
I say the same, but the shear has to let up somewhere for something to form, it's been kicking every storms butt this year. Still, only little pockets open for any kind of development.
Quoting Levi32:
I feel it is appropriate to share this response which I received from James Franklin, one of the NHC forecasters, after I inquired on the issue of 93L and why it was not named on the spot. I feel that it is ok for me to share this since they have developed this response for all questions related to 93L's treatment by the NHC.

Dear Levi,

We've gotten a few inquiries on this, and prepared the following by way of response:

During the weekend of 8-9 October, the state of Florida was affected by a large and complex weather system, one that was not designated as a tropical or subtropical cyclone operationally by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Watches, warnings, and forecasts for this system were provided by local National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs), most notably WFO Melbourne and WFO Jacksonville, while marine analyses and forecasts were provided by NHC's Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB).

There have been a number of inquiries as to whether this system was a tropical or subtropical cyclone. It is not uncommon for NHC to reclassify a system after an event based on a post-storm analysis, adding it to the historical record as an unnamed tropical or subtropical cyclone. A post-storm analysis is planned for this system to see whether it met either of the following definitions:

Tropical cyclone - A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere.

Subtropical cyclone - A non-frontal low pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. This system is typically an upper-level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the center. In comparison to tropical cyclones, such systems have a relatively broad zone of maximum winds that is located farther from the center, and typically have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.

Nature is capable of generating a wide spectrum of low-pressure systems that don't always neatly fit into the classification systems developed by meteorologists. The weather system that affected Florida this weekend contained characteristics of both tropical and non-tropical weather systems, making its classification difficult. Because of the system's non-tropical origins, the initial warning products on the system originated from NWS WFOs, and in fact the potential impacts of this event had been advertised in WFO products up to a week in advance.

During the afternoon of 9 October, a broad area of low pressure developed off the Florida east coast. Even before this time, gale-force winds were occurring over a large area offshore, and reached the coast by the late afternoon. In some respects the system resembled a subtropical cyclone at this time. During the evening, however, the low became better defined and strengthened near the Florida coast, briefly accompanied by a very small core of strong winds more characteristic of a tropical cyclone. These winds affected the Cape Canaveral area. During the event, WFO Melbourne issued a High Wind Warning for several coastal counties and a Storm Warning for the coastal waters -both rare issuances.

The overriding consideration for NHC not to name this system during the late afternoon or evening hours was a desire to preserve the flow of watch/warning/hazard information that had been coming from the NWS WFOs. NHC coordinated warning options with the affected WFOs throughout the day Sunday. Because the hazardous weather conditions were already occurring by the time the cyclone and its circulation had become well defined, it was agreed that users would be best served by not abruptly changing the product/warning suite to tropical/subtropical issuances, with the ultimate status of the system to be determined from a post-storm analysis.

I hope this is helpful in explaining how this system was handled.

Regards,

James
--
James L. Franklin

Branch Chief, Hurricane Specialist Unit
NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center


Notice how he says that 93L exhibited both non-tropical and tropical characteristics. In other words, they acknowledge that it was at least partially warm-core, and likely deserves some sort of classification, but they decided to wait until after the fact in order to avoid disrupting the flow of warning products being given to the public through the local NWS WFOs. I can understand this line of reasoning, and obviously we don't know anything about how coordination between offices works and the dynamics of communicating with the public. I'm sure they were trying to keep the public's best interest in mind. I fully expect them to upgrade invest 93L to an unnamed subtropical or tropical storm after post-analysis.

Thank you Levi for sharing that...Looks like it will be upgraded in post-season.
240. wpb
mexico radar not on the website
Jova firing off some very cold cloud tops over the center as landfall approaches.



Quoting KipHansen:
Is Jova going to bring rain to drought-stricken Western Texas?


I don't think so. A cold front is forecast for the high plains/west Texas. Some rain from Jova possible in deep south Texas. (Brownsville, Laredo etc)
Winds still 35 mph; Pressure still 1006 mbar.

EP, 99, 2011101200, , BEST, 0, 137N, 941W, 30, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 200, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Jova has not changed;

EP, 10, 2011101200, , BEST, 0, 186N, 1052W, 85, 973, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 15, 15, 15, 1006, 180, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JOVA, D,
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Jova has not changed;

EP, 10, 2011101200, , BEST, 0, 186N, 1052W, 85, 973, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 15, 15, 15, 1006, 180, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JOVA, D,
so the 11pm still will be 100mph? figured a cat 2 at landfall... those are pretty rare for mexico and dangerous
212. There you have it folks, we can stop bashing the NHC now, they'll upgrade it post-season.

So whatever our total is come Jan 1st, you can add +1 to that total.


I am on Providenciales, the triangle shaped island in the white area North of Hispaniola.

We have had light winds all day, just now the breeze has sprung up from the South, 15 to 18 mph, I will watch the Barometer overnight... when I tapped it now, it is steady.
What a hopeless group with their " warning products and suites". What becomes apparent is that there is a lot of duplication between the NHC and NWS, with an abundance of "branch managers" all trying to protect their turf.

Now they will have this "summit" in order to give the appearance they are performing a task of a natural security nature deciding what this stupid 93 was.

This is of no importance to the country in these hard times and should be wrapped up NOW.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
so the 11pm still will be 100mph? figured a cat 2 at landfall... those are pretty rare for mexico and dangerous

Well, the NHC does differ from the ATCF file every once in a while, but there is about a 9/10 chance of it being the same intensity at 11PM.
Tom~ I have no doubt the system was closed. I have a PWS in my back yard. It closed as it hit land or came on land in a very short amount of time. 950mb is not surface. I live there & know what 10-20 miles looks like. It's ~60 miles from NWS to KSC. It's near 10 miles from NWS to the Beach as the crow flies.. It was interesting watching it on wundermap. That area is littered with Personal Weather Stations. Please note the time at MLB airport that the true west wind hit.. this is when the surface low would have been due north of Melbourne on land..22:53. Now note the time at the end of the loop when radar has center still offshore 2:26..3 1/2 hrs later. By the end of the loop MLB is already havin South winds, showing the low was even farther inland. It was horribly stacked. Being that close to the radar makes it even more horribly stacked. Please realize Vero winds are in eastern time.. At around 7pm when the surface low moved N of them on land is the first we see on the radar that 93L was getting rapped up..(look farther back in time then what you posted) I'm not sure if the surface low wasn't on land from the get go which is another mark for MCV...

& wasn't that broad surface low late that night in the GOM on Oceansat from the ULL above it? Are you saying that ULL was supporting a broad surface low under it & 93L across the state at the same time?

I don't know if this will get upgraded postseason, it may or may not. There is a lot of devil in the details that need looked at cause it was very close, fast & evolved in a somewhat unusual way.. Had it had a few more hours over water or atleast not had all the cold west winds here on land while it was offshore on radar, I think it would have been named that night. I have no problems with how NWS & NHC handled it though. I lived through it & was warned accordingly.

Couple of big trees in the hood down, 2 dead oaks fell here, 3 truck loads of debris off my place. That big sign on Hibiscus where you turn to the mall is down. Saw some crooked stop signs on Babcock.

Cosmic~ Thanks

Tampa~ Taking the time to look at the details in the definitions:) We need more of that here..

IceCoast~ Thanks for the great example of a MCV. I probably refer to them as landcanes way more than I should.

Levi~ Thanks for sharing the NHC response.

I'm over 93L..I see the Cuba/Haiti blob drifted a little more west at the surface than I expected today..got all hung up on the east side of Cuba while shear came up to 20kts & blew it's mid level vort to the North..
is the blog dead tonight?????????
Today's Discussion, Argument, Diagnosis, and Debate from just about everyone on 93L was all highly Informative and Educational.

Thank you all who participated.
This is a Great Blog.

Carry on>>>>>>>>>
Quoting pottery:
Today's Discussion, Argument, Diagnosis, and Debate from just about everyone on 93L was all highly Informative and Educational.

Thank you all who participated.
This is a Great Blog.

Carry on>>>>>>>>>


about nobody is here
TS Banyan continues to soak the Middle Philippines, churning into open sea and maintaining strength precipitation-wise. It will likely become the third tropical cyclone to hit Hainan Province of Southern China in as many weeks.



Meanwhile, the remnants of 93L trudge through the Appalachians, dragging behind a convective blob that extends as far south as Hispanola. The system brought flooding rains and winds to Florida, and reminds me of the un-named Carolinas September storm a few years back. The system is still getting moisture and will bring rain into Southern Ontario tomorrow.
Quoting weatherh98:


about nobody is here

No Prob.
I just came in to read all of today's comments that I had missed.

Some very good stuff there.

I'm out too >>>>>>
Quoting pottery:

No Prob.
I just came in to read all of today's comments that I had missed.

Some very good stuff there.

I'm out too >>>>>>

Ok, bye >>>>>>>>>>>>>
jova jova maintaining cat 2 status... why cant she just fall apart?? :(
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
jova jova maintaining cat 2 status... why cant she just fall apart?? :(


because shes a loon duuuh
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



looks like 3 ppl on tonight
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
hey do you know any avaliable radars where jova is making landfall? also its been since 2006 since the e pac has gotten 9 or more hurricanes :P
To my untrained eye Jova looked a little better this afternoon and now looks a little worse. It is hard to see the eye. Jova will probably maintain her strength until landfall.
Hurricane Jova to slam Mexico overnight

Indeed this is a horrible situation for Mexico. Unfortunately, even once she weakens she will still be a huge threat in terms of rainfall.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
hey do you know any avaliable radars where jova is making landfall? also its been since 2006 since the e pac has gotten 9 or more hurricanes :P

Not that I know of, no.
Quoting weatherh98:



looks like 3 ppl on tonight
And they all have each other on ignore.

Does anybody here know how a meadow evolves through stages until finally the tall trees , usually of one species, take over and smother out the other species? Well that has happened on this blog too. And as in the forest of old diseased trees, lightening must come and burn down the old growth and allow the sunshine to reach the ground again.

Yes it is quiet in the forest and on the blog tonight!
THE LATEST
*Images are clickable for magnified version (images can be further magnified in Link Window by clicking anywhere on them)

Quoting wunderweatherman123:
hey do you know any avaliable radars where jova is making landfall? also its been since 2006 since the e pac has gotten 9 or more hurricanes :P


I know its not for me, but I looked and I couldn't find anything
Pathetic...
its alright guys thanks. i just made a blog entry so if you guys wanna check it out its posted :P
If 93L exhibited both extratropical and tropical characteristics; the latter was for a brief time and sporadically, and the dominant nature of the system was the former imo. But what do I know...nuthin. However, jumping up and down all over the NHC because a system briefly exhibits one or another characteristic and is not 'named' is presumptuous and perhaps naive.
Quoting Chicklit:
If 93L exhibited both extratropical and tropical characteristics; the latter was for a brief time and sporadically, and the dominant nature of the system was the former imo. But what do I know...nuthin. However, jumping up and down all over the NHC because a system briefly exhibits one or another characteristic and is not 'named' is presumptuous and perhaps even naive.

You mean subtropical?
Calculus 2, what a love hate relationship I have with it...
Quoting Jedkins01:
Calculus 2, what a love hate relationship I have with it...


I thought Calculus 2 was fun. I'm assuming you're not even in the thick of it yet. Wait till you get to polar coordinates, tests for convergence, and series representations.
It was comma-shaped.
We had a temperature drop here and strong winds, like a noreaster for about a week.
It was a complicated system.
But considering it occurred in lower latitudes, maybe it deserves something else. dunno.
Out of my depth here.
As the norm of the partition becomes infinitely small we arrive at the Reimann integral.
Puerto Vallarta Web Cam

Changes every ten seconds. They keep changing views too. Seen alot of people out.
So Newton invented Calculus I and Leibniz invented Calculus II, right? I'm just being silly obviously.
Quoting Drakoen:


I thought Calculus 2 was fun. I'm assuming you're not even in the thick of it yet. Wait till you get to polar coordinates, tests for convergence, and series representations.


We are finishing up chapter 8, which includes partial fraction decomposition, trigonometric substitution, and a return to the limit concept.

The reason I say love/hate relationship is that I was a fool when I was younger about math, in that I was home schooled and my mom got me way ahead of most kids in math knowing that I loved science, especially meteorology. However being succumbed by youthful stupidity I developed a really bad attitude towards math, and avoided it for my last 2 years in high school altogether. As a result of ignoring math for a while, when I got into college I signed up for courses I shouldn't have taken because I didn't really know the material that well nor was I mature enough to take them on even though I passed high enough in the math entrance exam. My bad attitudes and lack of practice early on have me playing catch up.

However, what I do like, is that I'm starting to really come around with it real recently, and I'm excited to learn it better in order to enjoy the MET courses more.
My father was an engineer.
I did not inherit that gene.
Anyway, I hope everyone had a great day.
The heat is back on here in Florida, though a nice shower just came through so maybe that will cool things off again.
guten nacht
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
So Newton invented Calculus I and Leibniz invented Calculus II, right? I'm just being silly obviously.


Well, not much is coming to mind right now about Leibniz. However, Newton essentially did invent calculus but it wasn't really in a way that could be adopted for outside use. Rather, it was a form of Calculus that he could use himself and that's about it. But, obviously it all spread from there.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
So Newton invented Calculus I and Leibniz invented Calculus II, right? I'm just being silly obviously.


lol

Quoting Jedkins01:


We are finishing up chapter 8, which includes partial fraction decomposition, trigonometric substitution, and a return to the limit concept.

The reason I say love/hate relationship is that I was a fool when I was younger about math, in that I was home schooled and my mom got me way ahead of most kids in math knowing that I loved science, especially meteorology. However being succumbed by youthful stupidity I developed a really bad attitude towards math, and avoided it for my last 2 years in high school altogether. As a result of ignoring math for a while, when I got into college I signed up for courses I shouldn't have taken because I didn't really know the material that well nor was I mature enough to take them on even though I passed high enough in the math entrance exam. My bad attitudes and lack of practice early on have me playing catch up.

However, what I do like, is that I'm starting to really come around with it real recently, and I'm excited to learn it better in order to enjoy the MET courses more.


Fun stuff and Good to hear Jed! As long as you study you'll do fine. Math is very important for meteorology. I can't imagine someone that doesn't like math wanting to be a meteorologist...oh wait that's an environmental scientist* :-)
Quoting Jedkins01:


Well, not much is coming to mind right now about Leibniz. However, Newton essentially did invent calculus but it wasn't really in a way that could be adopted for outside use. Rather, it was a form of Calculus that he could use himself and that's about it. But, obviously it all spread from there.


Huh? Every time you write and dy/dx you should thank Leibniz.
at the 11pm advisory do u think they will confirm jova has made landfall?
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
at the 11pm advisory do u think they will confirm jova has made landfall?


No. It hasn't quite made landfall yet. It will soon, though.

I'm out. Goodnight everyone.
JOVA on MIMIC. Just about making landfall somewhere around Zapata & Careyes.
not all oct is going too be the same


by looking at this could this mean a end of hurricane season early this year?

this may be the 1st time in a long time we have not had a major hurricane in OCT


In all the math classes it is always Newton invented Calculus period. Both Newton AND Leibniz invited Calculus, and others have made great contributions.
RAMSDIS has that Cuba blob on a floater.
Quoting Drakoen:


lol



Fun stuff and Good to hear Jed! As long as you study you'll do fine. Math is very important for meteorology. I can't imagine someone that doesn't like math wanting to be a meteorologist...oh wait that's an environmental scientist* :-)


Thanks! Yeah, its funny how life is, I got down about being behind in math for making mistakes earlier. However, I realized that the extra hard work its taking to make up for earlier mistakes will be a benefit for me later on so it all works out. Also, FSU recommends completing Calc 3 before transferring with an AA so after being behind I will have caught up, because i plan on transferring there for next Fall, and I will be taking Cal 3 this spring, so just in time!

I actually like the looks of Calc 3, it looks very interesting, less pure math and more scientific application, that's the way I like it!
I hate math and am a Junior meteorology student..lol ... "A" in diff EQ thus far. It's actually much more enjoyable than the calc series atleast to me.
Quoting Drakoen:


Huh? Every time you write and dy/dx you should thank Leibniz.


Oh I knew he was well involved with Calculus, I just forgot to what degree he was. My memory is usually pretty good with history, but I'm not very well sure of math history.
CENTER OF CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE JOVA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MEXICO...
8:00 PM PDT Tue Oct 11
Location: 19.0°N 105.2°W
Max sustained: 100 mph
Moving: NNE at 8 mph
Min pressure: 973 mb

she will make landfall probably with 30 to 60 minutes
Quoting Jedkins01:


Thanks! Yeah, its funny how life is, I got down about being behind in math for making mistakes earlier. However, I realized that the extra hard work its taking to make up for earlier mistakes will be a benefit for me later on so it all works out. Also, FSU recommends completing Calc 3 before transferring with an AA so after being behind I will have caught up, because i plan on transferring there for next Fall, and I will be taking Cal 3 this spring, so just in time!

I actually like the looks of Calc 3, it looks very interesting, less pure math and more scientific application, that's the way I like it!


If you transfer in having already taken Calc 3 you will be fine (and probably won't be "behind"). Calc 3 is cool, towards the end you might make some connections with vector fields, the curl, and divergence, etc.
Quoting SouthALWX:
I hate math and am a Junior meteorology student..lol ... "A" in diff EQ thus far. It's actually much more enjoyable than the calc series atleast to me.


I'm in ODE as well, and doing great too, although I think the stuff we are learning is pretty straight forward and systematic.
10E/H/J/C2
MARK
19.05,-105.3
APPROACHING LANDFALL
Quoting Drakoen:


If you transfer in having already taken Calc 3 you will be fine (and probably won't be "behind"). Calc 3 is cool, towards the end you might make some connections with vector fields, the curl, and divergence, etc.


Yeah I looked ahead in what appeared to be applicable to meteorology, because my Calculus text book includes all 3 Calculus periods I saw some things on vector fields and divergence/convergence. I saw a problem involving vector fields that looked similar to a low pressure area.
Return of Hermine?

Good Night everyone.
The floater for 99E is aimed at the swirl in the GOM..
Look at that swirl trying to grab a passing convection from JOVA.


Coldest green cloudtops wrapping around eyewall again.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Coldest green cloudtops wrapping around eyewall again.
too late now to stregnthen 100mph at landfall is a good bet


This is from Acapulco,too far away to show much. Radar located at Cuyutlán,which is near landfall are is down.
Quoting Skyepony:
Look at that swirl trying to grab a passing convection from JOVA.


Won't the dry air in the GOM inhibit formation?
307. j2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
not all oct is going too be the same


by looking at this could this mean a end of hurricane season early this year?

this may be the 1st time in a long time we have not had a major hurricane in OCT



Uhh Taz we already have, called Ophellia. Sorry to burst your bubble, so how is everybody tonight? I see Jova is about to make landfall.
Quoting j2008:

Uhh Taz we already have, called Ophellia. Sorry to burst your bubble, so how is everybody tonight? I see Jova is about to make landfall.
Evening.
I am in NOLA. I just became a Jova's witness, as I saw some of the outflow clouds pass over my house.
Quoting Skyepony:
Tom~ I have no doubt the system was closed. I have a PWS in my back yard. It closed as it hit land or came on land in a very short amount of time. 950mb is not surface. I live there & know what 10-20 miles looks like. It's ~60 miles from NWS to KSC. It's near 10 miles from NWS to the Beach as the crow flies.. It was interesting watching it on wundermap. That area is littered with Personal Weather Stations. Please note the time at MLB airport that the true west wind hit.. this is when the surface low would have been due north of Melbourne on land..22:53. Now note the time at the end of the loop when radar has center still offshore 2:26..3 1/2 hrs later. By the end of the loop MLB is already havin South winds, showing the low was even farther inland. It was horribly stacked. Being that close to the radar makes it even more horribly stacked. Please realize Vero winds are in eastern time.. At around 7pm when the surface low moved N of them on land is the first we see on the radar that 93L was getting rapped up..(look farther back in time then what you posted) I'm not sure if the surface low wasn't on land from the get go which is another mark for MCV...

& wasn't that broad surface low late that night in the GOM on Oceansat from the ULL above it? Are you saying that ULL was supporting a broad surface low under it & 93L across the state at the same time?

I don't know if this will get upgraded postseason, it may or may not. There is a lot of devil in the details that need looked at cause it was very close, fast & evolved in a somewhat unusual way.. Had it had a few more hours over water or atleast not had all the cold west winds here on land while it was offshore on radar, I think it would have been named that night. I have no problems with how NWS & NHC handled it though. I lived through it & was warned accordingly.

Couple of big trees in the hood down, 2 dead oaks fell here, 3 truck loads of debris off my place. That big sign on Hibiscus where you turn to the mall is down. Saw some crooked stop signs on Babcock.

Cosmic~ Thanks

Tampa~ Taking the time to look at the details in the definitions:) We need more of that here..

IceCoast~ Thanks for the great example of a MCV. I probably refer to them as landcanes way more than I should.

Levi~ Thanks for sharing the NHC response.

I'm over 93L..I see the Cuba/Haiti blob drifted a little more west at the surface than I expected today..got all hung up on the east side of Cuba while shear came up to 20kts & blew it's mid level vort to the North..
the point was 950mbs is definitely not the mid levels of the troposphere. It's the low levels. And when recon goes out to investigate invests, depressions, or any other weak disturbance, 950-960mb is usually the flight level they operate on.

Idk what the 60 miles is about, but the center fix on that radar is around 20 miles from the radar tower.

As far as the different wind reports...well that's just that. Once again, regardless, the storm being stacked is never mentioned in the NHC definition of a subtropical cyclone, so whether or not it was stacked or not is really irrelevant. What matters is it had a closed circulation, it had tropical force winds, it had tropical (partial warm core, convection over center) and extratropical characteristics (strongest winds well removed from the center, ULL present/nearby aloft, baroclinic processes), and therefore, it met the definition of a subtropical cyclone.


Also, as I've said already, yes it met the definition of an MCV, but it also met the definition of a subtropical cyclone.
310. j2008
Quoting FrankZapper:
Evening.
I am in NOLA. I just became a Jova's witness, as I saw some of the outflow clouds pass over my house.

Ohh wow that is a rotten joke!! I'm shocked to hear that Jova's outflow is al the way in NOLA. Glad to see Irwin is staying weak behind her. Ohh, and 99E moveing north maybe into GOMEX, that could be fun.
Quoting Drakoen:


lol



Fun stuff and Good to hear Jed! As long as you study you'll do fine. Math is very important for meteorology. I can't imagine someone that doesn't like math wanting to be a meteorologist...oh wait that's an environmental scientist* :-)
lol
Quoting Skyepony:
The floater for 99E is aimed at the swirl in the GOM..

Is that on any surface or higher plot?
Quoting j2008:

Uhh Taz we already have, called Ophellia. Sorry to burst your bubble, so how is everybody tonight? I see Jova is about to make landfall.



did not say any thing about Jova and did not even say any thing about the E PAC
314. j2008
Quoting Tazmanian:



did not say any thing about Jova and did not even say any thing about the E PAC
Jova was a cat 3 so both Atlantic and EPAC have had majors already.
Quoting FrankZapper:
Evening.
I am in NOLA. I just became a Jova's witness, as I saw some of the outflow clouds pass over my house.
nah Im in NOLA. Thats the clouds from the supposed to be sub- tropical storm in GA now.
Quoting bigwes6844:
nah Im in NOLA. Thats the clouds from the supposed to be sub- tropical storm in GA now.
They're dropping leaflets. So I would say they are from Jova.
Quoting j2008:
Jova was a cat 3 so both Atlantic and EPAC have had majors already.
think pacific has had 5-6 majors this year
319. j2008
Quoting Tazmanian:




you miss read my commet i said that hurricane season could be done with now with the kind of wind shear we had in the Atlantic all so Ophelia could be are last major of the season




READ MY LIPS I DID NOT EVEN SAY A WORD ABOUT THE E PAC AND ALL SO I WAS NOT EVEN TALKING ABOUT Jova




ALL SO EVERE ONE READ MY LIPS MY NEW RULES READ MY COMMETS CAREFUL AND DONT Quote ME IF YOU CANT UNDER STAN WHAT I THIS SAID


THIS IS WHY NEXT SEASON I MAY NOT EVEN BE ON HERE AM GETING SO SICK OF EVERE ONE MISS READING MY COMMETS


WHERE IN COMMET 288 I SAID THE E PAC AND Jova???



and yes i will admin it in commet 288 Ophelia could be are last major hurricane in the Atlantic if wind shear dos not lower soon'


the Atlantic is acting more like winter time wind shear out there a little ealy

Yea calm down, I totally misread your comment, I was just asking everybody bout Jova too, I've been really slow to catch on to things today. Definatly may have seen the last MH for this year but it isnt the end of the season yet, I think we could eek out a couple more hurricanes maybe....
Quoting j2008:

Yea calm down, I totally misread your comment, I was just asking everybody bout Jova too, I've been really slow to catch on to things today. Definatly may have seen the last MH for this year but it isnt the end of the season yet, I think we could eek out a couple more hurricanes maybe....




hmmm with that kind of wind shear out there you nevere no


and where thta MOJO evere one was talking about oops?
321. j2008
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
think pacific has had 5-6 majors this year

Yea they have had a lot, about 80% of the storms have become hurricanes and 50% became Majors
Taz, please don't evere become a diplomat. I fear your carefully worded statements would start WW3. :)
323. j2008
Quoting Tazmanian:




hmmm with that kind of wind shear out there you nevere no


and where thta MOJO evere one was talking about oops?

Yea tru, we wont kno until the season ends.... I think MJO should be in the atlantic by the weekend. Truthfully I have not heard anything about it lately, so Idk what its gonna do.
FEEL THE LOVEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!
325. j2008
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
FEEL THE LOVEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!

Ohh yea, tons of it, LOL. Looks like its been a slow day, only 300+ posts so far......wow EPAC really isnt popular is it...
Quoting Tazmanian:




hmmm with that kind of wind shear out there you nevere no


and where thta MOJO evere one was talking about oops?
Yea, some experts built up this MJO as if it was going to be a big one. Every time they do that it seems like the MJO disappoints. VERY inexact science, if you ask me.
327. j2008
Night everyone, got a long day tomorrow. Stay safe.
Quoting Tazmanian:




hmmm with that kind of wind shear out there you nevere no


and where thta MOJO evere one was talking about oops?
MJO is on it's way Taz

At least according to the model forecasts

Quoting TomTaylor:
MJO is on it's way Taz

At least according to the model forecasts





ok well have too see then
no guard in here? lol
Surprise TD in the EPAC.
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED...
2:00 AM PDT Wed Oct 12
Location: 14.7°N 93.6°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: N at 5 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Quoting Tazmanian:
not all oct is going too be the same


by looking at this could this mean a end of hurricane season early this year?

this may be the 1st time in a long time we have not had a major hurricane in OCT




We already had a major hurricane in October - Ophelia.
Good morning. Very interesting stuff i read from earlier. It seems the NHC might decide to upgrade in the postseason. It was a very complex system and it could go either way. That is why i say just leave it alone. IMO the evidence was not strong enough to say it was purely subtropical for a named storm. Will I be mad if they upgrade? No way. This was a very unusual setup off the EC of FL. I just hate how people attack each other and bash the NHC before really digesting every detail in place. I am done talking about 93L myself. It's time to move on. It will be very interesting to read the postseason results from the NHC. ;)
Remember 2007 had only 2 majors and 6 hurricanes. Of course the majors were 5s. We have passed them in named storms and majors. Only one more hurricane to tie that.

On another note. We havn't had a hurricane in the gulf of mexico this year. We normally do have one but the only storms its had is HARVEY, ARLENE, NATE, DON, and LEE.
2006 was the last time. Only ALBERTO was in the gulf that year. It did however hit florida.
The GFS showing a storm in the GOM on the 00Z run. A long ways out there.
Good morning from S.W. Florida

NAM is looking very interesting this morning with a nicely formed Low moving up through the western Caribbean in 3 days.

GFS also shows some activity in the same region in 3 days, but doesn't develop it.
he guys what intensity did jova make landfall? cat 2?
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
he guys what intensity did jova make landfall? cat 2?


85kts. I guess u don't go to the NHC site and read their public release and discussion. I always go there first for storm updates.
Nam 84 hours.
Western Caribbean Low.
Good Morning
interesting little epac system making landfall s coast of mex might make it over in the west carib. and run over hispanola cuba s bahamas last wk gfs had it making landfall over w. nicaraqua
Quoting robert88:
Good morning. Very interesting stuff i read from earlier. It seems the NHC might decide to upgrade in the postseason. It was a very complex system and it could go either way. That is why i say just leave it alone. IMO the evidence was not strong enough to say it was purely subtropical for a named storm. Will I be mad if they upgrade? No way. This was a very unusual setup off the EC of FL. I just hate how people attack each other and bash the NHC before really digesting every detail in place. I am done talking about 93L myself. It's time to move on. It will be very interesting to read the postseason results from the NHC. ;)
west wind here wish they could have a board meeting today how hard can it be? its not out of the question the wrong name might have to be retired if they dont hurry up.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Seems like every year, at some point I post a copy of the NHC Mission statement... I will bold a part I think some people forget:


Mission
(Why We Exist)

To save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic

efficiency
by issuing the best watches, warnings,

forecasts and analyses of hazardous tropical

weather, and by increasing understanding of these hazards.

Vision
(What We Hope to Achieve)

To be America's calm, clear and trusted

voice in the eye of the storm,

and, with our partners, enable communities

to be safe from tropical weather threats.

================================

There have been scholarly papers written on the "cost per mile" to the economy caused by Hurricane warnings. I am confident that costs are incurred due to lost productivity etc. even from "Tropical storm warnings". In years past, the NHC suffered very strong criticism by both the Bahamas and the Florida Keys (two that I know of) for substantial economic damage done to their tourist based economies, after warnings were issued for systems which were "marginal".

It behooves the forecasters... since it IS a part of the official Mission Statement, to take economic and other factors into consideration when naming a system. Ivory Tower meteorologists may want an exact criteria to be followed in naming systems, however, in my opinion, the NHC MUST take other factors into consideration... and sort out any questionable definition details in later analysis.


Well said. Along those lines, just a few weeks ago the NHC felt confident enough in its forecast that they did NOT issue hurricane warnings and watches for coastal Florida and points north for hurricane Irene. I recall that it was said that they had the confidence to trust the models and therefore held off on the expanded watches/warnings. One storm savings of somewhere near 200 millions dollars. The expenditures that have brought these improvements in forecasting are paying off and THAT can be used to help us get some funding for replacing satellites.
345. MahFL
Hi all, I see some drama on the blog.....
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEARING THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 93.5W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWELVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A
SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION WILL MOVE INLAND IN THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.
I'm really tired of all the bashing of the National Hurricane Center. LET'S JUST STOP IT NOW! Most on here are speaking out that have NO IDEA of the Data and even those that think they have all the Data don't even know how to analyze it correctly. I for sure am not qualified by any means to say this should be named and even the ones that claim to be METS on here are probably not qualified to do so either without the Complete DATA needed. Let the NHC do their jobs and if it qualifies to be Named they will do so later. ENOUGH!


Checkout the blowoff Higher clouds off Jova coming in to Florida!
Quoting TampaSpin:
I'm really tired of all the bashing of the National Hurricane Center. LET'S JUST STOP IT NOW! Most on here are speaking out that have NO IDEA of the Data and even those that think they have all the Data don't even know how to analyze it correctly. I for sure am not qualified by any means to say this should be named and even the ones that claim to be METS on here are probably not qualified to do so either without the Complete DATA needed. Let the NHC do their jobs and if it qualifies to be Named they will do so later. ENOUGH!

Why? We don't have anything else to do.

We're not arguing, we're debating...well, at least, most of us are.
Good morning everyone! Went back and read the blog from last night. Some of our student bloggers were talking in advanced math language, one I don't even marginally speak. They linked it to meteorology study. So as a good morning math joke at my level (one your 8 year old will like),

Q. Why is 6 afraid of 7?
A. Because 7 8 9

Have a great day on the blog.
after I lost hope for TD 12....... now TD 12
Good Morning.
Another hot one in store here today.
Yesterday HeatIndex peaked at 105 F.
Not very nice.

Saw a vid. today that shows that the Chinese have developed a Drill Bit that will drill a square hole.
Fantastic!

Now we know what we can do with all these round pegs we been saving up.....
Should be great for this blog, too.

heheheheh
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning.
Another hot one in store here today.
Yesterday HeatIndex peaked at 105 F.
Not very nice.

Saw a vid. today that shows that the Chinese have developed a Drill Bit that will drill a square hole.
Fantastic!

Now we know what we can do with all these round pegs we been saving up.....
Should be great for this blog, too.

heheheheh


OK...this kinda thing is the real reason I come to this blog...
WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!
wow,a suprise tropical tehjaunapecker!!!
Quoting stillwaiting:
wow,a suprise tropical tehjaunapecker!!!

lol
WOW Jason! Look TS Irwin totally destroys Mexico!

Someone at the NHC must have made really weak coffee today...
Quoting KeysieLife:
WOW Jason! Look TS Irwin totally destroys Mexico!



ROFLMAO...thanks for the great comment. I so enjoy the humor of this blog.

Good morning to all. Bright and sunny is South FL. No rain predicted. Hopefully, we have some time to dry out before anything else MIGHT affect us down the road.

Keeping those folks in Mexico in my prayers. They could possibly get a double whammy. I know how that feels after Jeanne and Frances.
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning.
Another hot one in store here today.
Yesterday HeatIndex peaked at 105 F.
Not very nice.

Saw a vid. today that shows that the Chinese have developed a Drill Bit that will drill a square hole.
Fantastic!

Now we know what we can do with all these round pegs we been saving up.....
Should be great for this blog, too.

heheheheh



Link

looks like the chuck is causing the bit to go corner to corner... say, as opposed to the bit itself. Certainly not a mortise bit. Interesting.
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning.
Another hot one in store here today.
Yesterday HeatIndex peaked at 105 F.
Not very nice.

Saw a vid. today that shows that the Chinese have developed a Drill Bit that will drill a square hole.
Fantastic!

Now we know what we can do with all these round pegs we been saving up.....
Should be great for this blog, too.

heheheheh
,didd you see one of our universities has invemted a cloaking device,weeeeelcome to te future,now for the jetson mobile..
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:


ROFLMAO...thanks for the great comment. I so enjoy the humor of this blog.

Good morning to all. Bright and sunny is South FL. No rain predicted. Hopefully, we have some time to dry out before anything else MIGHT affect us down the road.

Keeping those folks in Mexico in my prayers. They could possibly get a double whammy. I know how that feels after Jeanne and Frances.



doesnt look like anything will affect you south fla with that major cold front coming next wednesday expected to drop temps in the 50s in fla..it looks like hurricane season is over for you guys...the yucatan and central america expect to get slammed by a major hurricane sometime late next week
Quoting TropicTraveler:
Good morning everyone! Went back and read the blog from last night. Some of our student bloggers were talking in advanced math language, one I don't even marginally speak. They linked it to meteorology study. So as a good morning math joke at my level (one your 8 year old will like),

Q. Why is 6 afraid of 7?
A. Because 7 8 9

Have a great day on the blog.


Here's one of my favorite math jokes...

Dr M just put up a NEW BLOG !!!
Man, that "un-named" storm (was it 93L?) that went through N. FL last weekend really had some high winds! A friend of mine who lives in Jacksonville, FL sent me some pictures of a large tree that fell on his roof. Here's one of those...

This might be the slowest i ever seen this blog for October. So many bloggers no longer are here......very sad!