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Powerful Atmospheric River Set to Blast the U.S. West Coast

By: Bob Henson 12:01 AM GMT on February 06, 2015

From San Francisco to Seattle, millions are watching and waiting for the arrival of 2015’s first major atmospheric river event. The impending AR will likely be the most intensely observed in weather history, thanks to an armada of instruments deployed across California and the Northeast Pacific for the CalWater 2015 study. (See my Tuesday post for more details.) The AR will plow into the coast Thursday night and Friday, with its core gradually sagging southward into central California by Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Assuming the rain holds off through midnight Thursday night, downtown San Francisco will have just edged out November-December 1976 for the city’s second-longest midwinter dry spell on record (43 dry days). The only longer dry period is 60 days, from November 17, 1876 through January 15, 1877.

Multiple periods of heavy rain are on tap for much of northern California, western Oregon, and western Washington, with rainfall rates exceeding 1”/hour and a few thunderstorms possible in California. The most intense rain and snow can be expected along the west slopes of mountain ranges, as extremely strong low- to mid-level winds packed with tropical moisture strike the mountains. Water vapor at the core of the AR is at more than 200% of average seasonal values. Wind gusts may exceed 60 mph near the coast and at high altitudes. Even stronger gusts above 100 mph are possible along the crest of the Sierra; high wind warnings have also been posted for the range’s eastern slope, where mountain-wave features could produce gusts of 60 - 80 mph.



Figure 1. There’s no missing the powerful atmospheric river on this map of projected flow at 700 hPa (700 mb) at 1500 GMT on Friday, February 6. Image credit: earth.nullschool.net.

Forecasters still expect a large area of 5 - 10” of rain over the next several days (see Figure 2 below), and today’s models suggest that heavy rains may extend southward from the San Francisco Bay area. West-facing slopes of the central and northern Sierra should also get several inches of beneficial rain, with as much as 3 feet of dense “Sierra cement” snow at the highest elevations. Snow levels in the Sierra will remain very high for a midwinter storm (generally above 8000 feet) until somewhat colder air arrives with the concluding system on Sunday and Monday, when elevations down to Lake Tahoe could see several inches of snow. Illustrating the warmth ahead of this system, Reno set a daily record high of 70°F on Thursday; only three other times has the city has reached 70°F so early in the calendar year.

Overall, the rains from this event should help replenish reservoirs in central California and provide welcome greening of vegetation across a large area. The critical Sierra snowpack (which provides about a third of California water supply) may only see modest improvement from its very low levels for this time of year. Little rain from this system will fall on Southern California, where the multiyear drought has had its firmest grip.

Widespread, severe river flooding is not expected with this system, but flood watches are in effect for most of coastal northern California and southern Oregon, as well as western Washington, where the Skokomish River is already near flood stage. Some localized flooding can be expected with the most intense downpours on Friday into Saturday; that risk may rise as soils saturate and rivers fill up (see Figure 3 below). Rains should be on the decrease later in the weekend before a final blast arrives with a colder, more well-defined upper-level storm on Sunday and Monday.

Bob Henson


Figure 2. Projected five-day precipitation totals from 0000 GMT Friday, February 6, to 0000 GMT Wednesday, February 11. Image credit: NOAA/NCEP/Weather Prediction Center.




Figure 3. From drought to deluge: the Russian River at Guerneville, California, is projected to swell from its current level of 5 feet to a peak of 26.3 feet by next Monday, February 9. Image credit: NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.



winter weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks doc!

Quoting 92. sar2401:

So Brazil now has their own name list for tropical and subtropical storms? Cool. I wondered when they would finally start that since there seem to be at least a couple every year. What will this storm do around Porto Alegre?


Thanks to read it!!! Everything started in January 2004 when a tropical depression formed at the East Coast of Bahia, Northeast of Brazil. 2 months later, my state, Rio Grande do Sul and the other state, Santa Catarina were affected by Hurricane Catarina with winds around 110 mph. This was the first time that we have a couple in one year. After that we had a tropical storm in February 2006, a subtropical storm in January 2009. After that we had a subtropical depression and the Tropical Storm Anita in March 2010, in the same year but in November we also have a subtropical storm without name. In March 2011 we had the Subtropical Storm Arani, the first of Navy gives a name that means "bad weather" in the language of Tupi Guarani. In 2010 we have the first time that 3 subtropical or tropical storm forms in one single year, after all the subtropical depression wasn't very well officially for our meteorologists. After almost 3 years without any system, during the Christmas of 2013 we have a subtropical storm without a name again...followed by two subtropical depressions, one in February 2014 and other in March 2014. Finally last month we had a subtropical depression unnamed in the same area that today we had the formation of future "Bapo". And now here we are. haha... So, the forecasts are diverging from each other but a lot of websites said that the Area of Porto Alegre could be reached by wind gusts of 45 mph between tomorrow and saturday maybe with isolated heavy rain events. The circulation of the system already affect us today. Until right now we don't have any severe alert at this moment, maybe tomorrow we'll see another alerts about this storm. With this formation we already had 8 formation of tropical or subtropical storms in the South Atlantic since 2010, this is very impressive. Almost 10 storms or depressions formed in five years in a region where it was said to be impossible the formation of these phenomena. Is quite impressive!!!


Thanks for the new post,
I think it's central CA that's suffering the most intense drought effects. Another outcome of this AR are the incredible Taku winds on the AK panhandle. Juneau TAF: PAJN 052326Z 0600/0624 08025G35KT P6SM BKN200 WS020/06055KT FM061500 08015G25KT P6SM BKN100 WS020/06040KT
{Confused comment deleted}

If the Russian River only gets to 26.3 feet, that won't be a problem. Having ridden out the 48.8 foot crest in 1986, I can confidently state that 26.3 feet will only be noticed by some cows grazing near the mouth of the river. If it keeps raining, then that will be a different story, but a lot of this rain will will end up behind Warm Springs Dam.
Quoting 4. sar2401:

1500 GMT on Friday? I think you must have meant Thursday, since it just tipped over to 0008 GMT on Friday.

If the Russian River only gets to 26.3 feet, that won't be a problem. Having ridden out the 48.8 foot crest in 1986, I can confidently state that 26.3 feet will only be noticed by some cows grazing near the mouth of the river. If it keeps rain, then that will be a different story, but a lot of this rain will will end up behind Warm Springs Dam.


Thats a model for tomorrow at 15z
watch out if you live in the northeast very cold night maybe down to 0F TO -5F
Quoting 63. ScottLincoln:



It all depends on how you use QPF and how you interpret QPF over long forecast durations.
It's also important to understand what goes into those verification scores. It's based on a comparison of QPF to QPE. Even assuming that QPE is perfect (it isn't), it may not be as simple as "QPF is bad" because of a low threat score. The threat skill score takes contours from QPE and tries to match them to QPF. It could be that the QPF was just offset 50 miles in one direction, but had the exact same sized contours and the same magnitude, but in that case the threat score could suffer tremendously.

If one understands uncertainty in longer range QPF, it can be useful. Should you take one pixel on that map for a 7 day QPF and treat it as a forecast? I know I wouldn't. Should you use it for overall patterns, observing the magnitude and spatial trends? Should you use long range QPF values in the context of the probabilistic values and forecaster discussion on uncertainty? That's how I would use it.

The main point, however, remains that saying "xx is bad" or "yy is unreliable" without any evidence or source is probably not a good idea. Without the context of how it is used and without objective evidence, it is very hard to say that. There are many who would find QPF with a maximum only 100 miles off 7 days out to be a very good forecast. That's the entire reason why I was pushing for more context about why an individual found QPF to be "very unreliable."

Again, still begs the question as to what threshold one is using to define "quite inaccurate."


I agree that it does depend on the threshold, and from my prospective that data tells me pqf forecasting is still quite inaccurate. As I mentioned earlier, it is improving yes, but we should still note that there is a long way left go still before it's very reliable. I know at least for me, I wasn't mentioning the inaccuracy of qpf as some sort of way of picking at meteorologists and thinking they should do better or try harder. I'm just saying that even though meteorologists are doing their best with latest data and model output available, rainfall forecasting is still pretty inaccurate.

Now if you choose to to interpret the data differently than I do, sure, I guess we just disagree on whether it should be considered accurate or not.

Now I also agree that qpf can also be interpreted differently itself. If it's taken only at face value, such as location x should get 3 inches, but instead they only got 1, or they got 5, then it's going to look even less accurate than it is.

I've talked about the subject before about the disconnect between the public and meteorology products. Most people don't understand and really realize what probability of precipitation means.

In the same way, QPF is done in a probabilistic manner too, at least from a meteorologist's perspective. If interpreted this way, the accuracy is higher, but the public certainly won't understand why or how to interpret that.

Additionally, even from a probabilistic approach to evaluating QPF, while its very valuable, and sometimes is accurate, there are still a lot of blown forecasts. But as I said, I have no credentials to claim there is a better way, nor am I even if I did. Forecasters are doing their best job, I just think QPF is one of the weaker points in forecasting relative to other types of forecast products right now.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Thats a model for tomorrow at 15z

Ah. Missed the "projected" part. Never mind. :-)
The current along the California coast is running from the south, opposite the norm. Coastal SSTs remain above normal as well.


cold night in the northeast tonight
Quoting pablosyn:
Thanks doc!



Thanks to read it!!! Everything started in January 2004 when a tropical depression formed at the East Coast of Bahia, Northeast of Brazil. 2 months later, my state, Rio Grande do Sul and the other state, Santa Catarina were affected by Hurricane Catarina with winds around 110 mph. This was the first time that we have a couple in one year. After that we had a tropical storm in February 2006, a subtropical storm in January 2009. After that we had a subtropical depression and the Tropical Storm Anita in March 2010, in the same year but in November we also have a subtropical storm without name. In March 2011 we had the Subtropical Storm Arani, the first of Navy gives a name that means "bad weather" in the language of Tupi Guarani. In 2010 we have the first time that 3 subtropical or tropical storm forms in one single year, after all the subtropical depression wasn't very well officially for our meteorologists. After almost 3 years without any system, during the Christmas of 2013 we have a subtropical storm without a name again...followed by two subtropical depressions, one in February 2014 and other in March 2014. Finally last month we had a subtropical depression unnamed in the same area that today we had the formation of future "Bapo". And now here we are. haha... So, the forecasts are diverging from each other but a lot of websites said that the Area of Porto Alegre could be reached by wind gusts of 45 mph between tomorrow and saturday maybe with isolated heavy rain events. The circulation of the system already affect us today. Until right now we don't have any severe alert at this moment, maybe tomorrow we'll see another alerts about this storm. With this formation we already had 8 formation of tropical or subtropical storms in the South Atlantic since 2010, this is very impressive. Almost 10 storms or depressions formed in five years in a region where it was said to be impossible the formation of these phenomena. Is quite impressive!!!


There was a study done after Hurricane Catarina looking at why we've suddenly seen these tropical and, particularly, subtropical storms. It's seems as if weather forecasters in North America may just not have been looking for them since the conditions in the South Atlantic seemed so unfavorable for tropical storms. That study identified about 90 probable subtropical storms in the South Atlantic from 1957 through about 2000. We weren't looking for them and it's been only relatively recently that South American countries have had the ability to find them. Not all of them affected Brazil but a significant number did so. They were just bad storms to forecasters down there and never identified as anything tropical. Even though Catarina itself was unprecedented, it seems as if subtropical storms in the South Atlantic may not be as rare as we thought they were. Maybe Bapo might help bring you some drought relief, I hope.
Quoting Jedkins01:


I agree that it does depend on the threshold, and from my prospective that data tells me pqf forecasting is still quite inaccurate. As I mentioned earlier, it is improving yes, but we should still note that there is a long way left go still before it's very reliable. I know at least for me, I wasn't mentioning the inaccuracy of qpf as some sort of way of picking at meteorologists and thinking they should do better or try harder. I'm just saying that even though meteorologists are doing their best with latest data and model output available, rainfall forecasting is still pretty inaccurate.

Now if you choose to to interpret the data differently than I do, sure, I guess we just disagree on whether it should be considered accurate or not.

Now I also agree that qpf can also be interpreted differently itself. If it's taken only at face value, such as location x should get 3 inches, but instead they only got 1, or they got 5, then it's going to look even less accurate than it is.

I've talked about the subject before about the disconnect between the public and meteorology products. Most people don't understand and really realize what probability of precipitation means.

In the same way, QPF is done in a probabilistic manner too, at least from a meteorologist's perspective. If interpreted this way, the accuracy is higher, but the public certainly won't understand why or how to interpret that.

Additionally, even from a probabilistic approach to evaluating QPF, while its very valuable, and sometimes is accurate, there are still a lot of blown forecasts. But as I said, I have no credentials to claim there is a better way, nor am I even if I did. Forecasters are doing their best job, I just think QPF is one of the weaker points in forecasting relative to other types of forecast products right now.
As I mentioned in the other blog, I really wish they would take those bullseye numbers off the QPF maps since they tend to make people focus on that area as being the ultimate area of highest rainfall when it's really all the area in the same contour. Just show the precipitation contours without those numbers. They do no good and make people think the whole forecast was bad if one area didn't get their 10 inches of rain.
That ol Man Atmospheric River'....
Quoting 12. sar2401:

There was a study done after Hurricane Catarina looking at why we've suddenly seen these tropical and, particularly, subtropical storms. It's seems as if weather forecasters in North America may just not have been looking for them since the conditions in the South Atlantic seemed so unfavorable for tropical storms. That study identified about 90 probable subtropical storms in the South Atlantic from 1957 through about 2000. We weren't looking for them and it's been only relatively recently that South American countries have had the ability to find them. Not all of them affected Brazil but a significant number did so. They were just bad storms to forecasters down there and never identified as anything tropical. Even though Catarina itself was unprecedented, it seems as if subtropical storms in the South Atlantic may not be as rare as we thought they were. Maybe Bapo might help bring you some drought relief, I hope.


He won't help anybody. The almost Bapo is bringing a lot of rain in between Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais and Espirito Santo, states of the southeast region of Brazil and he is bringing rain with the famous Intertropical Convergence Zone South Atlantic, but since the subtropical high of the South Atlantic migrated to the mainland, which is unusual to occur specially during the Summer, It has been very difficult to form this convergence zone and with and the Heat Dome (December 2013-February 2014) the severe drought arrives. Today we had a lot of rain over this states but is isolated rains and EXTREME insufficiently to change this situation, as California. The Zone forms today but it will be short live actuation. Specially Sao Paulo must has heavy rain over a lot of weeks to come back to the normal. Bapo is extremely insufficiently to change the actual extreme drought in Brazil. Including the actual forecasts has a high possibility of the Subtropical High of South Atlantic come back to the Southeast Region of Brazil in the next week and the drought continuous becoming worst and worst every month. Our forecasts just show the probably end of the drought just in the Summer 2016-17 (to the rivers come back to the normal in that region).

Quoting 11. hurricanes2018:



cold night in the northeast tonight


Thanks Doc!

Rain has stopped here around Humboldt Bay for the last hour or so and I can see some blue sky here and there. So far, it's been a normal winter's day (or, what used to be normal). The winds are ramping up out of the S. We just had a window-rattling gust (40 mph?), so I guess it's still on its way. I'll let you know what happens overnight in the morning. I don't have a PWS, but I think tonight I will deploy the old coffee can + ruler so I can report rainfall totals at my house here in downtown Arcata.

Batten down the hatches!
East Haven, Connecticut 8:34 PM EST on February 05, 2015
16 °F
Clear

Next 6 Hours
Clear. Windy early. Temperatures falling into the upper single digits. Winds NNW at 15 to 20 mph.
Train of Storms to Bring Midwest, Northeast Unrelenting Snow Into Next Week

A train of storms will bring round after round of snow from the Upper Midwest to the Northeast this weekend into early next week.
The storms will bring episodes of snow every 12-24 hours or so from northern Minnesota, upstate New York, northern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey and New England.
In some cases, there may be snow of varying intensity from this weekend right straight through into early next week.
Here you go, pablosyn.

Subtropical Depression Two :)
The pattern has been pretty favorable in allowing these trough splits to occur much like you see off the southeast coast. Will be a interesting little cyclone to track, although it will be short-lived as all South Atlantic cyclones are.
Quoting 20. TylerStanfield:

Here you go, pablosyn.

Subtropical Depression Two :)
The pattern has been pretty favorable in allowing these trough splits to occur much like you see off the southeast coast. Will be a interesting little cyclone to track, although it will be short-lived as all South Atlantic cyclones are.


Thanks!! I think that will see something like "Anita part 2", maybe stronger.


snow coming soon and cold weather to

This pretty good for now...
An update from the Seattle NWS Discussion regarding the AR. I'm loving the mild temps in the 50s!

.SHORT TERM...

THERE HAS BEEN SOMETHING OF A LULL IN RAINFALL RATES SINCE AROUND 18Z. IT HAS KEPT RAINING IN MOST PLACES THOUGH EVEN IF THE RATES ARE LOWER. THE SKOKOMISH BASIN HAS THREE RAIN GAUGES SHOWING MORE THAN 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AND ONE OF THEM HAS MORE THAN 4 INCHES. IT IS NO WONDER THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IS ON THE VERGE OF FLOODING. MODELS INCLUDING THE LATEST NAM AND HRR INCREASE RAINFALL RATES AFTER ABOUT 03Z. THIS WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL LAST UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY OR SO. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER LULL AND THEN IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ONE MORE PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER THAT A COUPLE OF FASTER MOVING SYSTEMS ARRIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT BUT RELATIVELY DRY PERIODS SEPARATE THE WET PERIODS. THE UPSHOT IS MOST OF THE RAIN DURING THIS FIVE-DAY WET PERIOD WILL FALL DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THIS IS CAUSING SOME FLOODING CONCERNS AND A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON.

IT WILL BE WINDY OR BREEZY AT TIMES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BE SUB ADVISORY LEVELS. WESTERN WASHINGTON IS FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR SO HIGH TEMPERATURES ALL THREE DAYS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S WITH LOWS 45-50. BURKE
Further updates from the NWS in Seattle...

.HYDROLOGY.

FOR RIVER FORECASTING PURPOSES THE MAIN PERIOD OF HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS LAST NIGHT THROUGH 00Z OR PERHAPS 03Z FRIDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS 36- OR 39-HOUR PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE 5-7 INCHES IN THE OLYMPICS AND 4-6 INCHES IN THE CASCADES OF WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH IN THE CASCADES... EXCEPT FOR A BULLS EYE AROUND MOUNT RAINIER. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN IN THE 5000-7000 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD SO NEARLY ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN. THE LOCATION OF THE RAINFALL BULLS EYES SUGGESTS THAT RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE OLYMPICS AND THE CASCADES OF WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES ARE AT RISK OF MINOR FLOODING. OTHER RIVERS THAT ARE PRONE TO FLOODING MIGHT ALSO REACH FLOOD STAGE... INCLUDING THE NISQUALLY... PUYALLUP NEAR ORTING...AND STILLAGUAMISH. A FLOOD WATCH COVERS THE COUNTIES WITH THOSE RIVERS AND ALSO THE COUNTIES OF THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA. RAINFALL RATES SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE ARRIVES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE IS FAST MOVING AND MAY SERVE ONLY TO PROLONG MINOR FLOODING ON ANY RIVER THAT IS FLOODING BY THAT POINT. NEW RIVER FLOODING SEEMS UNLIKELY. THEN MODELS SHOW A LONGER LULL IN PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY THAT LASTS INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE WAVE THAT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT IS ALSO FAST MOVING AND SEEMS UNLIKELY TO CAUSE ANY MORE FLOODING. PRECIPITATION TURNS MORE SHOWERY MONDAY AND THE FLOOD THREAT SHOULD END. BURKE
Quoting 25. Seattleite:

An update from the Seattle NWS Discussion regarding the AR. I'm loving the mild temps in the 50s!

.SHORT TERM...

THERE HAS BEEN SOMETHING OF A LULL IN RAINFALL RATES SINCE AROUND 18Z. IT HAS KEPT RAINING IN MOST PLACES THOUGH EVEN IF THE RATES ARE LOWER. THE SKOKOMISH BASIN HAS THREE RAIN GAUGES SHOWING MORE THAN 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AND ONE OF THEM HAS MORE THAN 4 INCHES. IT IS NO WONDER THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IS ON THE VERGE OF FLOODING. MODELS INCLUDING THE LATEST NAM AND HRR INCREASE RAINFALL RATES AFTER ABOUT 03Z. THIS WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL LAST UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY OR SO. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER LULL AND THEN IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ONE MORE PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER THAT A COUPLE OF FASTER MOVING SYSTEMS ARRIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT BUT RELATIVELY DRY PERIODS SEPARATE THE WET PERIODS. THE UPSHOT IS MOST OF THE RAIN DURING THIS FIVE-DAY WET PERIOD WILL FALL DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THIS IS CAUSING SOME FLOODING CONCERNS AND A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON.

IT WILL BE WINDY OR BREEZY AT TIMES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BE SUB ADVISORY LEVELS. WESTERN WASHINGTON IS FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR SO HIGH TEMPERATURES ALL THREE DAYS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S WITH LOWS 45-50. BURKE


what have they gotten up by Bothell .. have friends there and was very dry when we were there in September ..
Quoting 28. whitewabit:



what have they gotten up by Bothell .. have friends there and was very dry when we were there in September ..


Forecast includes 100% rain for the next 3 days. So far they have received about a quarter inch of rain, with winds 10-15mph, with gusts to 29.
Yesterday the Laboratory for Satellite Altimetry / Sea Level Rise finally updated sea level information from satellites. And the news is bad. Sea level surged from its record height at the last observation in September by several millimeters. In December sea level was 12.90 mm higher than 12 months earlier. And sea level was already above trend. Sea level has slowed or flattened for a while before and perhaps it is about to now. But sea level would have to stay steady until 2021 to return to the +2.9 mm/year trend. When sea level rise accelerates it will look like this.

To view the tables, click on 'global mean sea level' and choose the 'seasonal signals retained' or the 'seasonal signals removed' tables (excel needed to view tables)
NAM 00z is even warmer than its previous runs. Congrats Canada!


The flood of the half-century — and you probably haven’t heard about it.

Even for a country used to flooding, this has been something beyond pretty much anyone’s experience.
Link



NEW YORK (Thomson Reuters Foundation) – More than 300,000 people have been displaced by flooding in Malawi, almost twice as many as previously estimated, the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) said on Thursday.

Floods triggered by weeks of heavy rains have affected more than 1 million people, killed 276 and injured more than 600, according to new figures released by the U.N. Disaster Assessment and Coordination (UNDAC) unit.


Link
Today's the 7th anniversary of the Super Tuesday outbreak.
Where did the Colorado go? Second episode of NOVA, aired March 10 1974. Also an episode of BBC's series Horizons.

Good evening, WU! Just catching up on the day's posts and comments from the 3 'active' blogs today.

LOVE the WunderPoster from the previous blog, looking forward to seeing more of these. And I appreciate the links to the WPA artwork.

From an earlier blog:

Quoting 491. Grothar:

NCEP GFS PWAT




Question for anyone - I don't understand the number fluctuating in red in the upper right-hand corner of this graphic. Can someone enlighten me? TIA

From 2 blogs ago...

#417 - vis0 - excerpt:

"(goddesses, sit down barbamz & LAbonbon i'm speaking of Greek Goddesses),"

vis, can't say anyone has ever referred to me as a 'goddess' before...that's kind of nice...thank you :D
Alright, storm is on now! Very gusty, very rainy. Let's hope it keeps up ALL NIGHT. I love a good storm, especially when I'm indoors.
Quoting 32. ColoradoBob1:



The flood of the half-century %u2014 and you probably haven%u2019t heard about it.

Even for a country used to flooding, this has been something beyond pretty much anyone%u2019s experience.
Link



NEW YORK (Thomson Reuters Foundation) %u2013 More than 300,000 people have been displaced by flooding in Malawi, almost twice as many as previously estimated, the United Nations Children%u2019s Fund (UNICEF) said on Thursday.

Floods triggered by weeks of heavy rains have affected more than 1 million people, killed 276 and injured more than 600, according to new figures released by the U.N. Disaster Assessment and Coordination (UNDAC) unit.


Link


Hi, Bob - was going to post this image a while back when you posted/linked an aerial photo of flooding, but the blog got busy (snow, I think). This is from 10 days ago, and was NASA Earth Observatory's Image of the Day for January 26, 2015:



In January 2015, several bouts of heavy rain triggered widespread flooding in southern Africa. The Advanced Land Imager (ALI) on the EO-1 satellite captured this image of flooding along the Shire River in Malawi and Mozambique on January 26, 2015. See this gallery for more satellite imagery of flooding in southern Africa.
(Source and additional information)
Tonight and tomorrow will be frigid across the East United States, with the coldest temperatures of the winter likely across much of the Northeast under upper-level troughing and surface high pressure. Things should moderate toward the weekend and early next week as upper-level ridging shifts eastward; record heat looks possible across the Central Plains. In the extended range, the GFS and ECMWF show the North Pacific jet retracting, allowing for heights to rise once again across West North America and heights to fall farther east. Temperatures depicted on the GFS would be the coldest of the winter for much of the East.

Very repetitive pattern this winter.
00
NOUS42 KMFL 052129
PNSMFL
FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-060930-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
429 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015



...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 02/05/15 BOCA RATON TORNADO...
...PRELIMINARY RESULTS ONLY...

RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 90-100 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 2 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 50-70 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: FEB_05_2015
START TIME: 736 AM EST
START LOCATION: 1 ENE BOCA WEST, FL
START LAT/LON: 26.3838, -80.1528

END DATE: FEB_05_2015
END TIME: 738 AM EST
END LOCATION: 1 ENE BOCA WEST, FL
END_LAT/LON: 26.39, -80.14

PRELIMINARY SURVEY_SUMMARY: INITIAL TOUCHDOWN OF TORNADO OCCURRED
AT 736 AM EST...WITH DAMAGE RATING OF EF-1 MAGNITUDE. DAMAGE
CONSISTENT OF SEVERAL UPROOTED TREES...SEVERAL LARGE TREES SNAPPED
HALFWAY UP...AND A TREE FELLED INTO A HOUSE. ROOFING WAS DAMAGED
FROM DOWNED TREES AND LIMBS. OF NOTE IS A LIKELY PROJECTILE IN THE
FORM OF A 6-12 INCHES DIAMETER TREE BRANCH IMPALED INTO A ROOF.
THE BRANCH APPEARS TO BE FROM AN ADJACENT NEIGHBORHOOD.


Earlier today the news article reported it as gusty winds of 50 mph. I knew that was complete nonsense as 50 mph wind gusts happen often in south Florida over a much larger area for a longer duration from many tropical systems so plants are used to winds. 50 mph usually doesn't cause damage of any kind in this part of Florida accept for maybe small limbs and blowing loose objects around.

50 mph winds don't uproot healthy large trees in Florida and knock over palm trees, or cause impalement of debris.

It wasn't a strong tornado by any means, but certainty much stronger than 50 mph straight line winds, lol. Not surprised this got upgraded after the storm survey.

37. LAbonbon
4:27 AM GMT on February 06, 2015

Great catch, many thanks for the image links . Reminds me of the Indus river images , and Amur river images. The entire flood plane is engulfed . More people with a tiny carbon foot print picking up the tab for us with a big carbon foot print,
Satellite science improves storm surge forecasting around the world
Date:
February 5, 2015
Source:
National Oceanography Centre
Summary:
A new online resource which will help coastguards, meteorological organisations and scientific communities predict future storm surge patterns has been created. The freely-accessible database of storm surge data has been compiled through the multi-partner, international eSurge project, which was launched in 2011 with the aim of making available observational data to improve the modelling and forecasting of storm surges around the world using advanced techniques and instruments.

sciencedaily.com
There is no better source day in and day out for science news than sciencedaily.com, they do cracker jack work.
Cracker Jack.
Quoting 38. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Tonight and tomorrow will be frigid across the East United States, with the coldest temperatures of the winter likely across much of the Northeast under upper-level troughing and surface high pressure. Things should moderate toward the weekend and early next week as upper-level ridging shifts eastward; record heat looks possible across the Central Plains. In the extended range, the GFS and ECMWF show the North Pacific jet retracting, allowing for heights to rise once again across West North America and heights to fall farther east. Temperatures depicted on the GFS would be the coldest of the winter for much of the East.

Very repetitive pattern this winter.


MJO still struggling to make it into the 8th octant. The current octant (7th) favors progressiveness with bouts of warmth and cold. Dynamics models want to bring us into the 8th octant by mid-month couple with a positive PNA, negative NAO and EPO. Still not getting the strongly negative NAO/AO pattern we would like to see to crank out a Miller A.
A certain irony at work in the world.

Deforestation causing São Paulo drought.

Brazil possesses 12 per cent of the world’s freshwater, and yet São Paulo – the biggest and richest city in South America – is suffering from severe drought with deforestation getting the blame.

Water rationing. Power cuts. Crop slumps. The past twelve months has seen Brazil being hit harder and harder by the effects of drought, as first São Paulo, then other regions of the country, struggle to cope with dwindling supplies of water but an immense demand. Local reservoirs are running at historic lows, such as the Cantareira system – which supplies water to over a quarter of the 20 million São Paulo residents and is currently down to only five per cent of its 264 billion gallon capacity. A ‘five-days-off, two-days-on’ rationing system is currently being proposed as a solution to prevent the reservoir running completely dry.


Link

No One's Quite Sure How São Paulo Will Survive Its Drought.

Link
Wind picking up a bit here in the SF East Bay, gusty out of the SE. No rain yet. Stars poking thru a mostly cloudy sky. Barometer is actually rising in the past hour or so. About 59 F here at bay level, not much warmer than it is right now at Lake Tahoe (6200 ft elev) where it's currently 52.
ghcc goes w seems to a have slight glitch
47. vis0

Quoting 1. pablosyn:

Thanks doc!



Thanks to read it!!! Everything started in January 2004 when a tropical depression formed at the East Coast of Bahia, Northeast of Brazil. 2 months later, my state, Rio Grande do Sul and the other state, Santa Catarina were affected by Hurricane Catarina with winds around 110 mph. This was the first time that we have a couple in one year. After that we had a tropical storm in February 2006, a subtropical storm in January 2009. After that we had a subtropical depression and the Tropical Storm Anita in March 2010, in the same year but in November we also have a subtropical storm without name. In March 2011 we had the Subtropical Storm Arani, the first of Navy gives a name that means "bad weather" in the language of Tupi Guarani. In 2010 we have the first time that 3 subtropical or tropical storm forms in one single year, after all the subtropical depression wasn't very well officially for our meteorologists. After almost 3 years without any system, during the Christmas of 2013 we have a subtropical storm without a name again...followed by two subtropical depressions, one in February 2014 and other in March 2014. Finally last month we had a subtropical depression unnamed in the same area that today we had the formation of future "Bapo". And now here we are. haha... So, the forecasts are diverging from each other but a lot of websites said that the Area of Porto Alegre could be reached by wind gusts of 45 mph between tomorrow and saturday maybe with isolated heavy rain events. The circulation of the system already affect us today. Until right now we don't have any severe alert at this moment, maybe tomorrow we'll see another alerts about this storm. With this formation we already had 8 formation of tropical or subtropical storms in the South Atlantic since 2010, this is very impressive. Almost 10 storms or depressions formed in five years in a region where it was said to be impossible the formation of these phenomena. Is quite impressive!!!



Para de lo Brasil por favor vaja a la ultima pagína del unltimo Blog de Dr. Masters comento#101◄sp|en►as to the Brasil please see post #101 of Dr. Masters last blogbyte.

Tambien puse un enlace a un programa muy bueno para a ver retratos grandes◄sp|en►Have a nice day :-P
Good morning with some weather news to read (no videos because there are current problems with flash player as is widely known).

Drought concerns force Brazil to cancels carnivals
Euronews, 05/02 22:09 CET
A host of cities in Brazil have been forced to cancel their carnivals amid concerns over an ongoing drought.
In a country known for sunshine and samba, measures taken by some authorities have not been widely welcomed.
Pepe Carrascosa, is president of samba school, Tradition and Heart of Araras : “I don’t think that three or four hours of a carnival parade will affect it (the water supply). From my point of view it was an unfortunate measure, they (the authorities) have not realised that Brazil is known for its carnival.”
Unsurprisingly, Marcelo Daniel, the Secretary of Culture for Araras, disagrees: “We have cancelled the street carnival to stop tourists coming to the city, so the city is quieter during carnival. We don’t have good conditions to have a big celebration and one of the reasons is the water crisis.”
The worst drought in decades to hit Brazil has mainly affected Sao Paulo state and the country’s biggest city, Sao Paulo.
With no end in sight to the hot and torrid conditions, authorities say they have little choice but to stop the party in a bid to save depleted supplies.


Albania floods made worse by deforestation, prime minister says
The Guardian, Feb 5, 2015,
Country hit by some of the worst floods it has ever seen, compounded by tree clearances and soil erosion
Deforestation and soil erosion has exacerbated flooding in Albania that has forced the evacuation of hundreds of families, the country’s prime minister has said.
Heavy rains have again been forecast for Friday, and prime minister Edi Rama, who has so far resisted calls for him to declare a state of emergency, warned of the potential for disaster. ...


Snow blocks pilgrims in Spain
Published: 2:40 pm, Friday, 6 February 2015
Heavy snowfall in northern Spain has blocked roads and rail services as well as pilgrims attempting to reach the city of Santiago de Compostela.
A fresh wave of bitterly cold weather on Thursday hit 33 of Spain's 50 provinces, the meteorological service said.
In the northern province of Leon, civil guards rescued 19 'disoriented' Catholic pilgrims, including three Koreans, a South African and 13 children, on the road to Santiago de Compostela.
In the small town of Aguilar de Campoo, north of Madrid, some 60 stranded travellers were put up in a gymnasium and a school, scenes reproduced elsewhere during the recent days of bad weather.
Aid services rescued around 100 people from their cars on the nearby A-67 motorway.
The authorities warned of a serious risk of flooding in Catalonia, northeast Spain, and the Balearic islands while more snow and ice is expected elsewhere.
The bad weather in recent days has already claimed the lives of two people. ...



Massive snow in Reinosa, Cantabria, N Spain last night! Photo: la Guardia civil Desbordada via AlertaMeteo @AlertaMeteo (Source)

Winter snow 'breaks Europe records'
BBC, 3 hours ago
Severe winter weather has been causing chaos for many across parts of Europe.
Sweden, Italy and Spain are among the countries that have seen arctic weather over the last few days.
Schools and roads have been closed and the bad weather is expected to continue over the weekend.
Tim Allman reports.


Cold snap brings heavy snow to Italy
The Local, Published: 05 Feb 2015 13:26 GMT+01:00
Heavy snow fell across northern and central Italy on Thursday, causing travel problems and some schools to close, while the south was hit by floods and landslides. ...

Losses From January Storms in Europe, U.S. Could Reach Into Hundreds of Millions
February 5, 2015
Four windstorms that hit Europe last month — along with severe weather in the U.S.– will likely cause economic losses in the hundreds of millions of dollars, according to Aon Benfield’s Impact Forecasting analysis unit.
The four windstorms – Elon, Felix, Gunter and Hermann – struck northwestern Europe between January 9 and 16 killing two people in the United Kingdom. The most damaging of the storms was Hermann, the report stated, which caused the most extreme weather, “Tornadoes, large hail, heavy snow, thundersnow, hurricane-force winds, and floods were all reported,” according to the report.
Economic and insured losses were expected to reach into the hundreds of millions of Euros, Aon Benfield said. ...


All the best with the Californian weather river!

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN AREAS OF
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO WBCWSWLWX FOR
MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE...SO
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$
Quoting 35. LAbonbon:




Question for anyone - I don't understand the number fluctuating in red in the upper right-hand corner of this graphic. Can someone enlighten me? TIA








I believe the numbers represent the model-derived lowest and highest values of Total Precipitable Water (TPW) on the loop for each forecast hour.
Ended up with 1.58" yesterday, up to 1.66" for the month of February, and it's only Feb 6th!
Morning all ...

The frontal passage is pretty much done. We dropped 12degrees from 82 to 70 between 1 and 3 pm, though I am sure half of that happened in the 20 minutes before 3 pm. It's still cool and overcast, with light rain off and on. Overall it was a pretty impressive front for February, which tends to be the tailing-off period for fronts this far south.

Have a super Friday, everyone!
Quoting tampabaymatt:
Ended up with 1.58" yesterday, up to 1.66" for the month of February, and it's only Feb 6th!


Based on this map some spots saw over 3" in the Venice Fl. area of S.W. Florida.
Make sure you change the date of the map to 2/5/15 at the top of the chart.
Link
Quoting 52. tampabaymatt:

Ended up with 1.58" yesterday, up to 1.66" for the month of February, and it's only Feb 6th!


Over 5" so far this year at my place average is just over 3". Really hasn't been much of a dry season this year. Infact going forward it may get even wetter especially for S FL which has been dry recently.

Quoting 57. StormTrackerScott:



Over 5" so far this year at my place average is just over 3". Really hasn't been much of a dry season this year. Infact going forward it may get even wetter especially for S FL which has been dry recently.




Last year started out very wet as well. Maybe this is the new normal in our part of the state.
Sub surface warm pool continues to grow now are pretty good area of 3C's showing up. This does not bode well for an active Hurricane Season.

Quoting 58. tampabaymatt:



Last year started out very wet as well. Maybe this is the new normal in our part of the state.


The cause of this is this warm neutral pattern we've been in combined with a very high PDO and this pattern could continue into next Winter as well.
Nino 3.4 continues to rise as westerly winds are now beginning to move into the Nino 3 region.



Fairly solid westerly wind burst ongoing in the Nino 3.4 region.

Quoting 60. StormTrackerScott:



The cause of this is this warm neutral pattern we've been in combined with a very high PDO and this pattern could continue into next Winter as well.


You should hear the Tampa mets discuss yesterday's rain event like it's a blessing from the rain gods, as if we haven't been in a wet pattern for what seems like over 2 years now.
Quoting 62. tampabaymatt:



You should hear the Tampa mets discuss yesterday's rain event like it's a blessing from the rain gods, as if we haven't been in a wet pattern for what seems like over 2 years now.


This pattern I think started last January that's when things began to get mighty wet around here on a consistent basis and is also the reason for no freezes for the last 2 years as the timeframe for us to get a freeze now is pretty much passing by as after the first week in February it becomes very hard to get freezing temps this far south.
Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 06 Feb 2015
Average for last 30 days -10.0

Average for last 90 days -7.4
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -6.0
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Over 5" so far this year at my place average is just over 3". Really hasn't been much of a dry season this year. Infact going forward it may get even wetter especially for S FL which has been dry recently.



Remember, you speak in general terms for the entire state of Florida. If you lived in Miami, you'd be telling everyone that the dry season is unseasonably dry.

Fort Myers
December
actual .05", normal 1.94"
January
actual .57", normal 1.71"

Miami
December
actual .95", normal 1.62"
January
actual 1.32", normal 2.02"

90 day percent of normal precipitation



Past 60 day map
Quoting 65. Sfloridacat5:



Remember, you speak in general terms for the entire state of Florida. If you lived in Miami, you'd be telling everyone that the dry season is unseasonably dry.

Fort Myers
December
actual .05", normal 1.94"
January
actual .57", normal 1.71"

Miami
December
actual .95", normal 1.62"
January
actual 1.32", normal 2.02"

90 day percent of normal precipitation





St. Johns River Basin is the highest I've ever seen it for this time of year and if we have a wetter than normal wet season which starts in just a little over 3 months then there is going to be a lot of flooding up and down the St. Johns River this summer.
Not only the St. Johns but look at how high Lake O is for February you almost never see this high of a level this time of year. This is mainly because of the Kissimmee River being so high which drains into Lake O from just south of Orlando.

Today's Lake Okeechobee Stage = 14.71 (Feet-NGVD29)
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


St. Johns River Basin is the highest I've ever seen it for this time of year and if we have a wetter than normal wet season which starts in just a little over 3 months then there is going to be a lot of flooding up and down the St. Johns River this summer.


Again, it's okay to say it's flooding in central Florida or your backyard.
Just try not to make general statements about the entire state of Florida that are not factual.
Areas of the Panhandle and South Florida have seen below average precipitation so far this season.
Quoting 59. StormTrackerScott:

Sub surface warm pool continues to grow now are pretty good area of 3C's showing up. This does not bode well for an active Hurricane Season.


Hi Scott, I highly doubt we will have a Nino this summer as I believe the time has come and gone for a Nino to form. The summer should start as a cool neutral and progress to a La Nina as the summer progresses into fall. This will be an active season with a high Ace Index, but not just because of a lack of an El Nino as I believe the PDO is turning to a colder state and the AMO is still in a active warm phase. Don't trust the enso charts until late spring early summer and as the waters warm for the spring and summer season, you will see these warm anomalies disappear to more normal conditions on the cool sides as the summer unfolds.
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
Storm Warning
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE FUNDI (09-20142015)
16:00 PM RET February 6 2015
===================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Fundi (993 hPa) located at 22.0S 42.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 9 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the eastern semi- circle.

Near Gale Force Winds
==================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 120 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 180 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 22.7S 42.8E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS 23.3S 43.2E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS 26.2S 43.2E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS 30.0S 40.0E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
=================
The system was named Funsi at 1200z by the Madagascar Meteorological Services. The system cloud pattern has improved during the past six hours, with the deep convection strengthening and wrapping close to the center. The main convective activity is located in the eastern semi-circle and over the western coast of Madagascar. The MET station at Morombe recorded 995.5 hPa (corrected from the barometric tide) at 1100z.

The system is currently moving over 30C sea surface temperatures. Up to 25.0S, the ocean heat content is high, and it drops regularly between 25.0S and 30.0S.

Today, upper levels conditions are rather favorable for intensification (weak upper levels wind shear, good divergence eastward). Tomorrow, a westerly constraint is likely to slow the development of the system. And on Sunday, the north northwesterly vertical wind shear is likely to built ahead of an upper level trough.

An intensification is also forecast up to Sunday before the deterioration of the environmental conditions.

The system is expected slow down tonight and turn southeastward, and then poleward Saturday along the western flank of the subtropical ridge. The current forecast lies near the multi-model consensus.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Not only the St. Johns but look at how high Lake O is for February you almost never see this high of a level this time of year. This is mainly because of the Kissimmee River being so high which drains into Lake O from just south of Orlando.

Today's Lake Okeechobee Stage = 14.71 (Feet-NGVD29)


Yes,we know. The water shed for Lake O has seen plenty of rain.
Again - that still doesn't change the fact that a large percentage of the state has only seen average to below average precipitation.

I really don't know why that's hard to understand.
Quoting 44. ColoradoBob1:

A certain irony at work in the world.

Deforestation causing São Paulo drought.

Brazil possesses 12 per cent of the world’s freshwater, and yet São Paulo – the biggest and richest city in South America – is suffering from severe drought with deforestation getting the blame.

Water rationing. Power cuts. Crop slumps. The past twelve months has seen Brazil being hit harder and harder by the effects of drought, as first São Paulo, then other regions of the country, struggle to cope with dwindling supplies of water but an immense demand. Local reservoirs are running at historic lows, such as the Cantareira system – which supplies water to over a quarter of the 20 million São Paulo residents and is currently down to only five per cent of its 264 billion gallon capacity. A ‘five-days-off, two-days-on’ rationing system is currently being proposed as a solution to prevent the reservoir running completely dry.


Link

No One's Quite Sure How São Paulo Will Survive Its Drought.

Link


From the article, this caught my eye:

"Residential water use only accounts for an estimated 6 percent of water usage in the region, which means that even if Paulistas stopped bathing altogether they won’t be able to resolve the “crisis de agua,” as it’s called locally. "

Lots of pressure will be put on residents, when in comparison, they are relatively minor consumers of the water.
Hopefully the recent rains put a dent in the increasing drought map.

Scott does this map make you understand that just because there's been above average precipitation in central Florida there are other areas of Florida that are dry?

I can't make it any easier to understand.



Quoting 64. StormTrackerScott:

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 06 Feb 2015
Average for last 30 days -10.0

Average for last 90 days -7.4
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -6.0

Hi Scott, I think you like JB and if I were you I would read what he is hinting at for the upcoming summer season in regards to a Nino or Nina for this summer along with the hurricane season. Like I said earlier JB tends to forecast from the heart, but I trust what he says or hints at more than any blogger on here. Look hard and you will find a very interesting outlook for this summer in regards to his and Dr. Maue forecast.
Hi everyone,we could really use the rain here in South Florida as it's been really dry and yesterdays rains were helpful, but we have a long ways to go to get back to normal.
Quoting 75. NativeSun:

Hi everyone,we could really use the rain here in South Florida as it's been really dry and yesterdays rains were helpful, but we have a long ways to go to get back to normal.
I would gladly donate to you our useless rainstorm pattern we've been getting.
G'morning.

Maybe someone should open a Florida weather blog ?

Gee,Huh?
Quoting 77. Patrap:

G'morning.

Maybe someone should open a Florida weather blog ?

Gee,Huh?


Florida monomania.
Quoting 77. Patrap:

G'morning.

Maybe someone should open a Florida weather blog ?

Gee,Huh?


dat seems like a good idea, you kneaux?
Quoting washingtonian115:
I would gladly donate to you our useless rainstorm pattern we've been getting.


Thursday got.70" in the city which was great. South of town only saw around .40"-.50"

We actually need about 15" of rain in my area. Most of southern Florida needs around 9" of rain.
Quoting 78. Drakoen:



Florida monomania.


mono-caster?
Quoting tampabaymatt:


dat seems like a good idea, you kneaux?


Most of the members are from Florida during the early morning hours.
oooofh'

Quoting 82. Sfloridacat5:



Most of the members are from Florida during the early morning hours.


Yup. We're talking about our local weather. Heaven forbid that happens on a weather blog.
please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself.

: }
NEXRAD Radar
Eureka, Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation Range 124 NMI

Quoting tampabaymatt:


dat seems like a good idea, you kneaux?
You have to cut him some slack, it's that Fresca poisoning....
Quoting Patrap:
please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself.

: }


That means no posts about Mardi Gras today? The horror.
Cold morning in New England.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Yup. We're talking about our local weather. Heaven forbid that happens on a weather blog.
Speaking of local weather, it went down to 25 this morning...again. I'm hoping that we may get through the next couple of days without these almost nightly freezes. It's supposed to get to 70 this weekend then we get another almost dry front come through. In addition to the cold, the air has been extremely dry, with a high RH of only 69% overnight, falling to 47% now. Alabama is not generally known for dry air. I'm glad you guys have gotten rain. My total for the month in 0.84".
Quoting 76. washingtonian115:

I would gladly donate to you our useless rainstorm pattern we've been getting.
Hi Wash, sorry I can't send you any snow as we get very little of that down here and when we do I want to keep it. Don't give up on the snow this year, you still have 6 or so weeks to get a storm or two.
It's not looking good for any major snow in the D.C. area any time soon.
Quoting Patrap:
please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself.

: }


Terrific! So you wont be posting stuff about global warming or that we live in a cesspool:)
Snow only at the higher elevations, but some significant totals forecast.
Quoting LAbonbon:


From the article, this caught my eye:

"Residential water use only accounts for an estimated 6 percent of water usage in the region, which means that even if Paulistas stopped bathing altogether they won%u2019t be able to resolve the %u201Ccrisis de agua,%u201D as it%u2019s called locally. "

Lots of pressure will be put on residents, when in comparison, they are relatively minor consumers of the water.


At least as important is this -

"The proposed reasons for the drought are plentiful. Authorities have come under fire for their failure to upgrade and maintain the necessary infrastructure to stop water being stolen or wasted in transit, with as much as 37 per cent of tap water failing to make it successfully to the people who need it, according to recent government reports."

Water pipelines are water pipelines. They deliver water into systems that feed residential, industrial, and agricultural users. This water loss has been an issue for decades, as well as the large number of people who simply tap into the existing lines and steal it, often with the connivance of local governments.

Brazil's biggest problem is endemic corruption. It has led directly to the Amazon deforestation as well. Brazil has hundreds of laws on the books to stop deforestation. In general, they are not enforced, as loggers simply pay off those who are supposed to enforce the laws.

It's not possible to look at these environmental problems without understanding the politics and government of Brazil. The country is saddled with one of the most incompetent and corrupt governments in its history. Look up Petrobras to understand the level of corruption in government run companies. Brazil's stock market is collapsing, inflation is starting to rise again, the country is headed toward negative economic growth this year, and it ranks among the top 10 countries in the world for the theft of public funds. Brazil is rapidly headed toward a cliff, and the drought is just one indication of how rapidly it's happening.
Quoting 69. NativeSun:

Hi Scott, I highly doubt we will have a Nino this summer as I believe the time has come and gone for a Nino to form. The summer should start as a cool neutral and progress to a La Nina as the summer progresses into fall. This will be an active season with a high Ace Index, but not just because of a lack of an El Nino as I believe the PDO is turning to a colder state and the AMO is still in a active warm phase. Don't trust the enso charts until late spring early summer and as the waters warm for the spring and summer season, you will see these warm anomalies disappear to more normal conditions on the cool sides as the summer unfolds.
AMO is negative and PDO is super


And even if we had la nina for the summer the atlantic setup is not great for and active season.
GFS also brings a system into southern California towards the end of its run. I didn't post it because its too far out.

Here's the upcoming system.

Nino 3.4 continues to rise as westerly winds are now beginning to move into the Nino 3 region.

heading on over to earth.nullschool.net...i notice that the wind is indeed blowing strong to the west....exactly what we see during neutral or even la nina conditions.....definitely not something that would help an el nino event....

here...let me help some who are interested understand this

El Niño: A temperature anomaly
The vast tropical Pacific Ocean receives more sunlight than any other region on Earth. Much of this sunlight is stored in the ocean in the form of heat. Typically, the Pacific trade winds blow from east to west, dragging the warm surface waters westward, where they accumulate into a large, deep pool just east of Indonesia, and northeast of Australia. Meanwhile, the deeper, colder waters in the eastern Pacific are allowed to rise to the surface, creating an east-west temperature gradient along the equator known as the thermocline tilt.

Pacific trade winds and El Nino The trade winds tend to lose strength with the onset of springtime in the northern hemisphere. Less water is pushed westward and, consequently, waters in the central and eastern Pacific begin to heat up (usually several degrees Fahrenheit) and the thermocline tilt diminishes. But the trade winds are usually replenished by the Asian summer monsoon, and the delicate balance of the thermocline tilt is again maintained.
Sometimes, and for reasons not fully understood, the trade winds do not replenish, or even reverse direction to blow from west to east. When this happens, the ocean responds in a several ways. Warm surface waters from the large, warm pool east of Indonesia begin to move eastward. Moreover, the natural spring warming in the central Pacific is allowed to continue and also spread eastward through the summer and fall. Beneath the surface, the thermocline along the equator flattens as the warm waters at the surface effectively act as a 300-foot-deep cap preventing the colder, deeper waters from upwelling. As a result, the large central and eastern Pacific regions warm up (over a period of about 6 months) into an El Niño. On average, these waters warm by 3° to 5°F, but in some places the waters can peak at more than 10°F higher than normal (up from temperatures in the low 70s Fahrenheit, to the high 80s).
Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 06 Feb 2015
Average for last 30 days -10.0
Average for last 90 days -7.4
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -6.0


now contrary to what has been erroneously mentioned by some before...the SOI is typically, but not always driven by the conditions in the ENSO regions......in other words...the SOI does not drive an el nino or la nina event......

so the question must be asked...at this time...is the SOI being driven by ENSO conditions?.......since we know that the current values have been raised by a week long lasting trend when the daily SOI values were well below -40.0...let's look to the experts in australia to help us with this...


Southern Oscillation Index
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has remained relatively stable over the past fortnight, hovering around the boundary of neutral and El Niño values. The latest 30-day SOI value to 1 February is −8.3. The recent dip in values of the SOI is primarily related to transient weather systems in the vicinity of Tahiti, and does not indicate a broadscale climate signal. It is common for tropical weather systems to cause transient fluctuations in the SOI during the first quarter of the year, especially if a tropical low or cyclone was to pass near either Darwin or Tahiti.

Quoting 80. Sfloridacat5:



Thursday got.70" in the city which was great. South of town only saw around .40"-.50"

We actually need about 15" of rain in my area. Most of southern Florida needs around 9" of rain.
hopefully in the tropical season you'll catch up on rainfall,your really down huh,not central florida that's for sure..seems every system that forms..dumps its rains here,right along the I-4 corridor.
Good Morning Folks. On the "topical weather" issue, waaaaay to early to take a stab as what conditions we will see for the Atlantic Basin season or what the Enso cycle will look like. So many large scale factors to consider including SAL issues and whether we will have, again, anomalous dry stable air in the Central Atlantic and Eastern Caribbean this season with possible teleconnection issues related to drought issues in SA/Brazil that we saw the last two Atlantic seasons.

In terms of Conus the next several days, here is the current look and Jet set-up:




Quoting sar2401:
There was a study done after Hurricane Catarina looking at why we've suddenly seen these tropical and, particularly, subtropical storms..
That study wasn't looking at why we've suddenly seen "these ...tropical storms" in the South Atlantic; it was a climatological study that looked back at 50 years of subtropical storms there, and asked why STs there failed to transition to TCs as they often do in the North Atlantic.
Quoting sar2401:
It's seems as if weather forecasters in North America may just not have been looking for them since the conditions in the South Atlantic seemed so unfavorable for tropical storms.
Conditions in the SA *are* unfavorable for TCs. And--in the satellite era--Catarina was indeed the first TC that's ever been observed there.
Quoting sar2401:
That study identified about 90 probable subtropical storms in the South Atlantic from 1957 through about 2000.
Not that many: "A total of 63 STs formed in the South Atlantic basin in the period August 1957 through December 2007." And just 45 of those occurred between 1957 and 2000: "We identify 18 STs in the years 2000-2007." Note: not tropical storms--because, again, none had been noted there until Catarina--but subtropical storms.
Quoting sar2401:
We weren't looking for them and it's been only relatively recently that South American countries have had the ability to find them.
Most of the 63 STs in the study were recognized by satellite signature.
Quoting sar2401:
Even though Catarina itself was unprecedented, it seems as if subtropical storms in the South Atlantic may not be as rare as we thought they were.
The study concludes that, on average, about 1.2 subtropical storms form every year in the South Atlantic. But it also found that cyclogenesis in the SH is driven in part by different mechanics than has been observed in the NH:

"The majority of South Atlantic STs form in the coastal zone impacted by the Brazil Current and downstream of the Andes. Compositing of the genesis environments of these coastal zone STs in austral winter and summer reveals alternate genesis pathways involving Rossby wave breaking (as in the North Atlantic) and lee cyclogenesis. While comparisons of the genesis and evolution of North and South Atlantic STs reveal many aspects in common, the lee cyclogenesis mechanism identified here for South Atlantic ST formation has no equivalent in the North Atlantic. ...The lee cyclogenesis path to ST genesis identified here is fundamentally different than the favorable baroclinic environment attributed to North Atlantic ST development (Evans and Guishard 2009). Lee cyclogenesis is not observed to play a role in North Atlantic ST formation."

As to whether global warming played a part in Catarina's birth: "Possible impacts of climate change on subtropical, and even tropical, cyclogenesis in the South Atlantic remain an open question."

A Climatology of Subtropical Cyclones in the South Atlantic (Jenni L. Evans and Aviva Brau)
000
NOUS42 KMFL 060210
PNSMFL
FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-061415-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
910 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 02/05/15 BOCA WEST TORNADO UPDATE...

RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 90-100 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 2 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 50-70 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: FEB 5 2015
START TIME: 736 AM EST
START LOCATION: 1 ENE BOCA WEST, FL
START LAT/LON: 26.3838, -80.1528

END DATE: FEB 5 2015
END TIME: 738 AM EST
END LOCATION: 1 ENE BOCA WEST, FL
END_LAT/LON: 26.3895, -80.1418

SURVEY SUMMARY: THE TORNADO HAD TWO SEPARATE TOUCHDOWNS. THE INITIAL
TOUCHDOWN OF THE TORNADO OCCURRED AT 736 AM EST...WITH DAMAGE RATING
OF EF-1 MAGNITUDE. DAMAGE CONSISTED OF SEVERAL UPROOTED TREES...SEVERAL
LARGE TREES SNAPPED HALFWAY UP...AND A TREE FELLED INTO A HOUSE.
ROOFING WAS DAMAGED FROM DOWNED TREES AND LIMBS...AND STRONG WINDS
ALSO REMOVED NUMEROUS SPANISH TILES FROM MANY HOMES. OF NOTE IS
A PROJECTILE IN THE FORM OF A 6-12 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMB
WHICH PUNCTURED A ROOF. THE TREE LIMB WAS LIKELY CARRIED BY THE
TORNADO FROM AN ADJACENT NEIGHBORHOOD.

THE SECOND TOUCHDOWN WAS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE INITIAL
TOUCHDOWN. DAMAGE AT THAT LOCATION REPRESENTED EF-0 MAGNITUDE.
ROOF DAMAGE...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL DOWNED TREES AND BRANCHES
WERE OBSERVED.

EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI WOULD LIKE TO THANK NUMEROUS
SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGERS...MEDIA AND LOCAL RESIDENTS WHICH
GREATLY CONTRIBUTED TO TODAY`S SURVEY AND REPORT.

NOTE:
THIS IS AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS STATEMENT ISSUED AT 429 PM. THE
ENDING LAT LON OF THE TORNADO WAS SLIGHTLY CHANGED.

THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN
NWS STORM DATA.

$$
WFO Eureka,Ca

Quoting LargoFl:
000
NOUS42 KMFL 060210
PNSMFL
FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-061415-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
910 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 02/05/15 BOCA WEST TORNADO UPDATE...

RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 90-100 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 2 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 50-70 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: FEB 5 2015
START TIME: 736 AM EST
START LOCATION: 1 ENE BOCA WEST, FL
START LAT/LON: 26.3838, -80.1528

END DATE: FEB 5 2015
END TIME: 738 AM EST
END LOCATION: 1 ENE BOCA WEST, FL
END_LAT/LON: 26.3895, -80.1418

SURVEY SUMMARY: THE TORNADO HAD TWO SEPARATE TOUCHDOWNS. THE INITIAL
TOUCHDOWN OF THE TORNADO OCCURRED AT 736 AM EST...WITH DAMAGE RATING
OF EF-1 MAGNITUDE. DAMAGE CONSISTED OF SEVERAL UPROOTED TREES...SEVERAL
LARGE TREES SNAPPED HALFWAY UP...AND A TREE FELLED INTO A HOUSE.
ROOFING WAS DAMAGED FROM DOWNED TREES AND LIMBS...AND STRONG WINDS
ALSO REMOVED NUMEROUS SPANISH TILES FROM MANY HOMES. OF NOTE IS
A PROJECTILE IN THE FORM OF A 6-12 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMB
WHICH PUNCTURED A ROOF. THE TREE LIMB WAS LIKELY CARRIED BY THE
TORNADO FROM AN ADJACENT NEIGHBORHOOD.

THE SECOND TOUCHDOWN WAS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE INITIAL
TOUCHDOWN. DAMAGE AT THAT LOCATION REPRESENTED EF-0 MAGNITUDE.
ROOF DAMAGE...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL DOWNED TREES AND BRANCHES
WERE OBSERVED.

EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI WOULD LIKE TO THANK NUMEROUS
SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGERS...MEDIA AND LOCAL RESIDENTS WHICH
GREATLY CONTRIBUTED TO TODAY`S SURVEY AND REPORT.

NOTE:
THIS IS AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS STATEMENT ISSUED AT 429 PM. THE
ENDING LAT LON OF THE TORNADO WAS SLIGHTLY CHANGED.

THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN
NWS STORM DATA.

$$


Locals believe that a tornado went through parts of their neighborhood in Lehigh Fl (which is just east of Fort Myers).
But the NWS says, the damage was straight lined winds.
Link
Good Morning fellow bloggers,

It's that time of the year again... with storms come our standard landslide special weather statement...

...HEAVY RAINFALL THAT BEGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THAT WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED THREAT OF LANDSLIDES IN WESTERN WASHINGTON...

RAINFALL THAT BEGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT HAS INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE TO MODERATE LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON. HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND WILL PUT EXTRA PRESSURE ON SOIL INSTABILITY...LEADING TO AN INCREASED THREAT OF LANDSLIDES.

WITH AN ELEVATED LANDSLIDE THREAT...RAINFALL INDUCED LANDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE DURING BURSTS OF INTENSE RAINFALL OR WHEN THERE IS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A PERIOD OF A DAY OR TWO. A GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THREAT OF LANDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO LANDSLIDES UNDER THESE CONDITIONS ARE STEEP COASTAL BLUFFS AND OTHER STEEP HILLSIDES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT CURRENT CONDITIONS...VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE ...SELECT LOCAL HYDRO INFO...AND THEN SCROLL DOWN FOR THE LINKS TO THE LANDSLIDE THREAT PAGES.

Seattle was on my mind last night watching the weather issues for the Pacific NW and a documentary on the history of Pearl Jam...............................
Quoting 110. Sfloridacat5:



Locals believe that a tornado went through parts of their neighborhood in Lehigh Fl (which is just east of Fort Myers).
But the NWS says, the damage was straight lined winds.
Link



I believe there was a confirmed tornado in Boca Raton yesterday.
Quoting 111. Seattleite:

Good Morning fellow bloggers,

It's that time of the year again... with storms come our standard landslide special weather statement...

...HEAVY RAINFALL THAT BEGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THAT WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED THREAT OF LANDSLIDES IN WESTERN WASHINGTON...

RAINFALL THAT BEGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT HAS INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE TO MODERATE LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON. HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND WILL PUT EXTRA PRESSURE ON SOIL INSTABILITY...LEADING TO AN INCREASED THREAT OF LANDSLIDES.

WITH AN ELEVATED LANDSLIDE THREAT...RAINFALL INDUCED LANDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE DURING BURSTS OF INTENSE RAINFALL OR WHEN THERE IS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A PERIOD OF A DAY OR TWO. A GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THREAT OF LANDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO LANDSLIDES UNDER THESE CONDITIONS ARE STEEP COASTAL BLUFFS AND OTHER STEEP HILLSIDES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT CURRENT CONDITIONS...VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE ...SELECT LOCAL HYDRO INFO...AND THEN SCROLL DOWN FOR THE LINKS TO THE LANDSLIDE THREAT PAGES.


slip sliding away day
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
306 AM PST FRI FEB 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS EMBEDDED THE
FLOW WILL BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF LULL ON
SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING MORE RAIN LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER W WA THIS
MORNING...BRINGING RAIN TO THE LOWLANDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE
MOUNTAINS. THE 100-120 KT 300 MB JET STREAK OVER THE AREA IS
SUPPORTING THE HEAVY RAIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW OVER SW WA AT 09Z PROVIDING
EXTRA LIFT...WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE OFF THE OREGON COAST THAT
COULD IMPACT THE AREA. THE OLYMPICS HAVE BEEN GETTING THE HEAVIEST
RAIN BY FAR...OVER 3 INCHES IN SPOTS IN THE PAST 12 HOURS.

THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVER W
WA UP THROUGH ABOUT 18Z. SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW WILL BE PEAKING AT
50-65 KT AT 12Z WHILE THE 300 MB JET STREAK IS STILL OVERHEAD. BY
18Z 850 MB WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING AND THE 300 MB JET STREAK WILL BE
SHIFTING E. THIS EXPECTED DECREASE OR LULL IN THE RAIN WILL LAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE S WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN FROM EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AND YET ANOTHER
TRAILING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP THE RAIN GOING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
WITH 850 MB WINDS IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE THESE NEXT TWO SHORTWAVES
WILL BE MUCH WEAKER AND PACK LESS RAIN.

.LONG TERM...THE LARGER MATURE SYSTEM APPROACHING W WA SUNDAY WILL
ARRIVE AS A SLOWER MOVING VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE
LOW. MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. THE UPPER LEVEL
AND SURFACE LOW WILL FOLLOW RIGHT BEHIND...CROSSING W WA ON
MONDAY...THEN SLIDING E OF THE CASCADES MONDAY NIGHT. GFS LIFTED
INDICES AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOW THE AIR MASS BECOMING MORE
UNSTABLE FOR LOTS OF SHOWERS...BUT WITH LIFTED INDICES TOPPING OUT
AROUND 4...NOT UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDER.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


I believe there was a confirmed tornado in Boca Raton yesterday.


Yes, just thought the story in Lehigh was interesting.
The damage location in Lehigh is just a few miles from my location. We didn't get much wind at all here at the house from the storm.
The damage in the neighborhood in Lehigh supposedly is very isolated to just a few homes.
Quoting 116. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



One can clearly see an outbreak of Arctic air streaming out across the Gulf of Alaska heading south toward the axis of the jet. In a classic PIneapple Connection, this would precede the event, but at least now there may be a chance of getting some cold air dynamics into the flow, and possibly a lower freezing level for Sierra snow before the atmospheric creek dries up.
2015 Tornadoes up to February 2. It won't include the tornado in S.E. Florida from this last system.
Includes the tornado from a couple weeks ago up near Port Charlotte.

Tornadoes in red
Wind damage in blue

20 tornadoes on 1/3/15 across Mississippi and Alabama.

Gusty and very mild right now in the SF Bay Area. Skies look threatening, but the rain bucket remains dry as a bone. Hoping it's a different story by later today. Garden could use a deep soak. If not, may have to forego some planting this year.
Quoting 100. Gearsts:

AMO is negative and PDO is super


And even if we had la nina for the summer the atlantic setup is not great for and active season.

What will be really interesting is seeing how much warmer the northeast Pacific, and especially the California coast, can get as we start off from already record warm SSTs.
the big key how much snow in the northeast on sunday to tuesday morning!!
Quoting 100. Gearsts:

AMO is negative and PDO is super


And even if we had la nina for the summer the atlantic setup is not great for and active season.
Hi, lets wait and see what the summer holds for hurricanes, all I'm doing is making a prediction on what I believe will happen come summer. I think a lot of people will be surprised by the way the pattern sets up by then, and by the way the AMO is not negative and the PDO will be turning cooler later in the year.
Long-Lived Northeast Snowstorm May Dump a Foot or More of Snow in New England, New York State
Published Feb 6 2015 10:29 AM EST
if as another blogger has said...the wind in the ENSO region is blowing west...and i do agree....that would mean that the water...from enso regions 1 and 2....far west on this graph...would be moving into the enso 3.4 arena...and the death of el nino threat would be eminent

Forms the Subtropical Storm Bapo in the South Atlantic. The first storm that has a name since Arani in 2011.

Timing
Friday night - Saturday: This 3-4 day long snow event begins late Friday night, as an initial strip of light snow sweeps from northern Minnesota over the northern Great Lakes. This initial stripe of snow then quickly spreads into New York state and New England Saturday.

Behind that first snow stripe, a second more expansive stripe of light to moderate snow will once again blanket northern Minnesota and the northern Great Lakes Saturday, quickly spreading central and Upstate New York and New England Saturday evening.

Sunday - Sunday night: Snow will gradually taper off (except for lingering lake-enhanced bands in spots) in the western Great Lakes, but will persist and may become heavy, at times, in New England and New York state later in the day. South of the area of snow, a thin band of freezing rain is possible from the Great Lakes to the Northeast, possibly again including parts of the New York City metro. A chilly rain is expected from the Ohio Valley generally near or south of the Mason-Dixon line. East to northeast winds will intensify along the coast of eastern New England, leading to reduced visibility in snow.
Little-no accumulation: Chicago, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Philly, southern NYC metro, Baltimore, Washington, D.C.

the next storm storm!! no accumulation for snow for Baltimore, Washington, D.C.



heavy snow north of new york city for sunday night to tuesday morning!
Based on climatology, tornado chances start to ramp up next week across Dixie Alley.
Well, it's raining hard now, but between 1800 last night and 0800 this morning I only recorded a little over an inch at my house.
Quoting 120. Sfloridacat5:

2015 Tornadoes up to February 2. It won't include the tornado in S.E. Florida from this last system.
Includes the tornado from a couple weeks ago up near Port Charlotte.

Tornadoes in red
Wind damage in blue

20 tornadoes on 1/3/15 across Mississippi and Alabama.





Looks like this year's tornado count is well ahead of last year's. Due to the constant reinforcing arctic air, there were 4 tornadoes the whole year until february 20th. At least there were occasional warmups this year so far.
Quoting 97. jrweatherman:



Terrific! So you wont be posting stuff about global warming or that we live in a cesspool:)


omg...we live in a cesspool? please don't tell anyone it might break the beautiful balance that we have established :)
Quoting 133. Sfloridacat5:

Based on climatology, tornado chances start to ramp up next week across Dixie Alley.

yeah wunder which way its gonna go quiet or noisy
Subtropical Storm Bapo, South Atlantic:
12Z Canadian has major storm cutting across FL and the Bahamas on Monday. Need to watch this trend closely as the Euro Ensembles show it too.




It's all offshore right after "valentine's day" but at least there's a decent pressure gradient. That'll kick up the winds for southern new england.
Brief warm up this weekend into next week and then another major shot of Arctic air is expected across the East Coast.
This will be a Winter the N.E. doesn't forget.

Should bring freezing temperatures across the Gulf Coast and northern Florida late next week.

Quoting 138. pablosyn:

Subtropical Storm Bapo, South Atlantic:



Quoting 137. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

yeah wunder which way its gonna go quiet or noisy



Seems quiet... for now. With a rex block forming out west, it'll result in a trough for the eastern half of the country. It's looking quiet for a week or so.
Quoting 141. Sfloridacat5:

Brief warm up this weekend into next week and then another major shot of Arctic air is expected across the East Coast.
This will be a Winter the N.E. doesn't forget.

Should bring freezing temperatures across the Gulf coast and northern Florida late next week.




yeah we be nearing -25c for overnight lows beginning next Thursday into the following weekend

time is getting late now for big cold
things will improve as we move towards last few days of feb into march temp wise anyway

storm wise well
to move all this cold
gonna need some big energy
what that will be is yet to be seen
In the last 24 hours we've received 1.42 inches of rain in the lowlands of Seattle. Given that our monthly average for February is a little over 4 inches, and the fact that we have storm systems lined up through Sunday I wonder how much rain we will get between now and the end of the month.

Last year, rain started in the last week of February and didn't stop until April, resulting in the tragic Oso Landslide..Hopefully we don't have a repeat this year!
Quoting 141. Sfloridacat5:

Brief warm up this weekend into next week and then another major shot of Arctic air is expected across the East Coast.
This will be a Winter the N.E. doesn't forget.

Should bring freezing temperatures across the Gulf Coast and northern Florida late next week.




Guess that also answers KOTG's question about severe weather this month... or lack thereof.
If the Canadian pans out the then strong thunderstorms would be possible across C & S FL Monday as 500mb temps would be at -18C maybe even -20C. Again Euro Ensembles are onto this as well GFS however isn't so well see.

Quoting 138. pablosyn:

Subtropical Storm Bapo, South Atlantic:



Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


yeah we be nearing -25c for overnight lows beginning next Thursday into the following weekend

time is getting late now for big cold
things will improve as we move towards last few days of feb into march temp wise anyway

storm wise well
to move all this cold
gonna need some big energy
what that will be is yet to be seen


That's some seriously cold air.
A nationwide warm-up, with near record warmth possible across the Central United States, followed by the same ole' same ole'.

12z GFS 850mb temperature anomaly animation
Quoting 149. StormTrackerScott:

If the Canadian pans out the then strong thunderstorms would be possible across C & S FL Monday as 500mb temps would be at -18C maybe even -20C. Again Euro Ensembles are onto this as well GFS however isn't so well see.




If you recall, I predicted earlier this week that rainfall estimates would increase as we get closer to Monday. I may eat crow on that but seems like the models are latching on to it now.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


If you recall, I predicted earlier this week that rainfall estimates would increase as we get closer to Monday. I may eat crow on that but seems like the models are latching on to it now.


It will be interesting to see if the NWS adjusts their forecast. Currently, they have nothing but sunny weather in our forecast through next Thursday.
What are the units on the 5 day precipitation chart?
156. MahFL
For the Seirra's :

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...12 TO 20 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO
30 INCHES.
12Z Euro now much more robust with rain chances across FL Monday too. Again there appears to be a threat of elevated strong thunderstorms producing mainly strong winds and hail.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


If you recall, I predicted earlier this week that rainfall estimates would increase as we get closer to Monday. I may eat crow on that but seems like the models are latching on to it now.
It's hard to see where any unusual rain for Florida is coming from with this next front. There's nothing that forecasts a low in the Gulf and the front looks like it will have low QPF's and very poor dynamic forcing. BMX keeps backing off on rain chances and it's now down to a 20% chance of showers Sunday night and Monday. This is one of those times that, if I don't get any rain, there's not going to be much left for Florida.
Quoting NimbusN:
What are the units on the 5 day precipitation chart?
Do you mean from the WPC? If so, it's inches.
Quoting 157. StormTrackerScott:

12Z Euro now much more robust with rain chances across FL Monday too. Again there appears to be a threat of elevated strong thunderstorms producing mainly strong winds and hail.


Seems like the GFS is in some sort of funk for rainfall accumulation across FL. Jedkins has pointed this out. The GFS was showing almost no rain for Tampa leading up to yesterday's event, and the bulk of the area got between 1.5" and 2.0".
Quoting 160. tampabaymatt:



Seems like the GFS is in some sort of funk for rainfall accumulation across FL. Jedkins has pointed this out. The GFS was showing almost no rain for Tampa leading up to yesterday's event, and the bulk of the area got between 1.5" and 2.0".


Euro and CMC both show some rough weather across C & S FL Monday.
Quoting RedwoodCoast:
Well, it's raining hard now, but between 1800 last night and 0800 this morning I only recorded a little over an inch at my house.
My friends further south in Santa Rosa tell me it just started to rain hard there. So far, the amounts have been very low and the incoming rain doesn't look very impressive on radar. The barometric pressure has also stopped falling and has actually risen a couple of ticks in the past hour. A lot of the rain is still offshore so it's early to know how things will turn out but the storm is slower than what was originally forecast. The downslope winds in Reno have really started picking up, with a 58 mph gust in the last hour and a temperature of 66. Still a lot of energy in the upper levels of the atmosphere.
Quoting 160. tampabaymatt:



Seems like the GFS is in some sort of funk for rainfall accumulation across FL. Jedkins has pointed this out. The GFS was showing almost no rain for Tampa leading up to yesterday's event, and the bulk of the area got between 1.5" and 2.0".
I dunno matt..gfs was saying possible 3 inches for central florida for yesterday,,did that for days before on the gfs ..
Quoting 161. StormTrackerScott:



Euro and CMC both show some rough weather across C & S FL Monday.
local met has 40% chance for Monday..might go up over the weekend as we get closer.
Hmm...I wonder, with this ongoing Atmospheric River are we beginning to see signs of a possible La Nina?



The sst in the Nino 3.4 region looks to be cooling as well.



Honestly, I am down for a La Nina because it means a more active Atlantic Hurricane Season and more storms to track.
Rain has begun here in the SF East Bay, but nothing at all spectacular as yet. Very ordinary plain vanilla winter storm.
Quoting 163. LargoFl:

I dunno matt..gfs was saying possible 3 inches for central florida for yesterday,,did that for days before on the gfs ..


Maybe I'm missing something. I looked on Levi's site at the GFS runs the day before the event and it was showing a quarter inch. Could be user error on my part.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:



Seems quiet... for now. With a rex block forming out west, it'll result in a trough for the eastern half of the country. It's looking quiet for a week or so.
For at least the next week for the South. It looks like we will be getting back to normal or even above normal temps and the fronts for Monday and Thursday are looking progressively weaker as they approach. Without a decent low in the Plains dropping our way and getting some good return flow, the chances of convective severe weather are slim to none. Once we get past February 15 we start to exit our secondary severe weather season until we get into mid or late March and the main event. Not saying it can't happen, as we saw with the rogue tornado in Florida yesterday, but the chances aren't high.
Wind shear 10-15 knots over Bapo - South Atlantic

Non weather question, apologies in advance. Does anyone know any good sites to use for research when it comes to FL-friendly landscaping? I'm planning to do an overhaul of my yard next month and need some ideas for FL friendly plants. I've done some preliminary research on the internet, but am having trouble finding a good site.
The Western Pacific appears ready to spit out its next tropical storm soon. I believe the JMA already has the system out near 160*E classified as a Tropical Depression.

Quoting 172. tampabaymatt:

Non weather question, apologies in advance. Does anyone know any good sites to use for research when it comes to FL-friendly landscaping? I'm planning to do an overhaul of my yard next month and need some ideas for FL friendly plants. I've done some preliminary research on the internet, but am having trouble finding a good site.

Do any of the Florida University's have an extension office? I know a few states in the midwest that do that. Otherwise see if the nearest state university has an agriculture department. They might have documents online indicating which plants are the best for food, decoration, etc, and may also indicate the best times of year for planting.
Quoting tampabaymatt:
Non weather question, apologies in advance. Does anyone know any good sites to use for research when it comes to FL-friendly landscaping? I'm planning to do an overhaul of my yard next month and need some ideas for FL friendly plants. I've done some preliminary research on the internet, but am having trouble finding a good site.
http://solutionsforyourlife.ufl.edu/lawn_and_gard en/

Particularly:

http://hort.ifas.ufl.edu/woody/groundcover-select ion.shtml

http://hort.ifas.ufl.edu/woody/groundcover-care.s html

http://hort.ifas.ufl.edu/woody/groundcover-care.s html
now the gem model has a lot of rain for very early tues morn..................
Quoting 174. ScottLincoln:


Do any of the Florida University's have an extension office? I know a few states in the midwest that do that. Otherwise see if the nearest state university has an agriculture department. They might have documents online indicating which plants are the best for food, decoration, etc, and may also indicate the best times of year for planting.


THe University of Florida in Gainesille (Not Florida State) would do this. THey have very good agriculture departments.

Closed circulation? It certainly seems very close if it isn't there yet.



Quoting 169. sar2401:

For at least the next week for the South. It looks like we will be getting back to normal or even above normal temps and the fronts for Monday and Thursday are looking progressively weaker as they approach. Without a decent low in the Plains dropping our way and getting some good return flow, the chances of convective severe weather are slim to none. Once we get past February 15 we start to exit our secondary severe weather season until we get into mid or late March and the main event. Not saying it can't happen, as we saw with the rogue tornado in Florida yesterday, but the chances aren't high.


GFS looks warm this weekend and early next week but is very cold Presidents day weekend and the cold drives deep into the southeast. Of course my son has another outdoor horse show Sunday 1/15. :-(
Horses prefer this to heat though.

BTW I've also noticed a ten day trend for our mid atlantic arctic shots to underperform.. verify slightly warmer than forecast.


very cold weather
Quoting 144. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



yeah we be nearing -25c for overnight lows beginning next Thursday into the following weekend

time is getting late now for big cold
things will improve as we move towards last few days of feb into march temp wise anyway

storm wise well
to move all this cold
gonna need some big energy
what that will be is yet to be seen



I've also noticed in the past two decades that arctic outbreaks start to lose their deepest sting after Feb 10 or so.
This is too short a period to be statistically significant and the DC station record was set in Mid February 1899
but all of the intense ones I remember from the 70s 80s and 90s were in January or December.
Set up my new weather station yesterday afternoon, :))) just in time for the big winds. No rain in Truckee at this time; it is expected to arrive with gusto around 2:00 pm. A big chunk of the town is without power, so I've read, due to a (windy)fire at a substation.
SOOO.....after yesterdays posts concerning the WPC's QPF chart and the perceived inaccuracy of the heaviest rainfall amounts...i thought...for awhile...i would keep track of a few points withing the graph and see if they verify...it by no means is scientific...but for me at least...it will be fun...here's today's 7 day forecast...and by all means...if you think i have my totals shown wrong for precip....let me know........



so i've picked three cities for week number 1

EL PASO - 0.25"-.050"

PORTLAND - 5" -7"

OAKLAND - 3" - 4"

Quoting 59. StormTrackerScott:

Sub surface warm pool continues to grow now are pretty good area of 3C's showing up. This does not bode well for an active Hurricane Season.




I find the resurgent behavior of this ENSO event very interesting in that once again, we're seeing it come to life in the transition phase between the peaks of the southeastern Asia & Australia monsoons (last spring, (~JFM), another burst ~October, and then of course what's transpiring at the moment). It's likely a testament to the importance of the seasonal variance in the Equatorial Pacific SST gradient (i.e. a weaker zonal (E-W) SST gradient in the early spring making the Pacific more susceptible to intraseasonal oceanic KW variability) & equatorial symmetry of the MJO forcing. Additionally, it certainly appears there was a complete reconfiguration of the tropical upper level circulation following what was a record breaking MJO pulse for January in phases 5 & 6 a few weeks ago, the persistent dateline upper level convergence/wavenumber 2 signal was (@ least temporarily) obliterated...


I just wish we didn't have all that Eastern Hemisphere/Indian Ocean tropical forcing & interference earlier in the winter to invigorate the Icelandic Vortex (i.e. enhance NAO), & of course the faltering AMO, & the failed mid winter SSWE displacing the stratospheric polar vortex into the North American arctic, thus coupling w/ the tropospheric hudson bay vortex, didn't help either & has significantly increased the inertial stability of this feature... If these pre-conditions were more conducive we would likely be dealing w/ a strong -NAO regime now given the ferocity of the anticyclonic wave breaking over the North Atlantic of late, however, we'll instead only be able to squeeze out a transient EB -NAO... Darn.

I'll admit, it's been hard to remain patient w/ the lack of snow here in central NC so far, but I'm still somewhat hopeful, considering the largest snowstorm in the historical record east of the mountains (in terms of snowfall depth & coverage) occurred in March 1927. (snowfall totals were derived from daily NCSU county climate extremes, and other scattered local reports)
If only we could pull off a 988mb Hatteras Low, lol...






I should also mention even though the current SST anomalies imply we're currently dealing w/ a modoki (CP) ENSO event, the atmospheric reflection is clearly reminiscent of an East-Based/basin-wide El Nino as evidenced by the US temperature anomaly distribution in the first two months of the winter.




The Modoki composites are a poor match through January, although it won't matter as much in February considering most El Ninos, regardless of intensity or placement, progressively converge onto the canonical look (cool SE/E coast, warmer Rockies & Pacific NW) throughout the course of the winter, w/ their differences eventually becoming almost indistinguishable by February...



You can also see how this year differs from the modoki events (which also meet ONI criteria) (1953-54, 1958-59, 1963-64, 1977-78, 1987-88, 2004-05) in terms of OLR, Upper Level VP, Total precipitable water, and even to some extent, the overall SSTs. OLR near the dateline, upper level velocity potential, and the core of the precipitable water anomalies sitting just east of south America is certainly not indicative of CP event.




If anything, this area of the basin has been anomalously inactive from an atmospheric standpoint, which may be a function of the Indian Ocean/Eastern hemisphere activity earlier in the winter shoving the entire epicenter of upward motion associated w/ this ENSO event eastward. This eastward shift in the anomalous atmospheric circulation has been a recurring theme in many modern-day El Ninos and may be related to the continued decadal warming of the Indian Ocean that has likely progressively & destructively, interfered w/ the evolution of the relatively recent El Nino events...

Pre-1976-78 El Ninos Global NDJFM Upper Level VP anomalies



Post 1976-78 El Ninos Global NDJFM Upper Level VP anomalies (Note the pronounced weakening/eastward shift in the upper level VP anoms)



This Eastern Hemisphere/ Indian Ocean interference has continued to intensify even within the last decade or so... Post 1997-98 El Ninos Global NDJFM Upper Level VP Anomalies
MATT.....HILLBOROUGH UF EXTENSION HAS A MASTER GARDENER PROGRAM AND GO TO THIS SITE AND YOU CAN EVEN CONNECT TO THEIR HELP DESK

Link
Quoting 184. ricderr:

SOOO.....after yesterdays posts concerning the WPC's QPF chart and the perceived inaccuracy of the heaviest rainfall amounts...i thought...for awhile...i would keep track of a few points withing the graph and see if they verify...it by no means is scientific...but for me at least...it will be fun...here's today's 7 day forecast...and by all means...if you think i have my totals shown wrong for precip....let me know........



so i've picked three cities for week number 1

EL PASO - 0.25"-.050"

PORTLAND - 5" -7"

OAKLAND - 3" - 4"




I suggest adding either Orlando or Tampa to your research as well.
I suggest adding either Orlando or Tampa to your research as well.

sounds good...we'll do tamps at .50-.75
Quoting 162. sar2401:

My friends further south in Santa Rosa tell me it just started to rain hard there. So far, the amounts have been very low and the incoming rain doesn't look very impressive on radar. The barometric pressure has also stopped falling and has actually risen a couple of ticks in the past hour. A lot of the rain is still offshore so it's early to know how things will turn out but the storm is slower than what was originally forecast. The downslope winds in Reno have really started picking up, with a 58 mph gust in the last hour and a temperature of 66. Still a lot of energy in the upper levels of the atmosphere.


Fallon NAS is reporting 65°, and the winds are doing their thing. Sun was dimmed briefly by the dust front, the dogs and cats are sleeping, the kids are watching Annie but are anticipating our traditional game of Scrabble should the power go out.

I'm sitting here crocheting, waiting for the 9 Month Old Mystery (her name is Old Norse for "the mystery you seek but will never find, because once found it is no longer Mystery" to settle down for nap time.

Lentils and pork shank with home-smoked andouille, onion and celery in the crock pot. The house smells awesome.

If it wasn't stormy this weekend we'd be prepping a culled dairy heifer for hanging at our favorite butcher shop. That girl gave us a real adventure yesterday - we took delivery of her, and she decided to go exploring. Jumped the fence into neighbor's yard to the west, jumped their back fence, led me and housemate on chase for about a mile on the rancher's property to the north, we herded her back to the fence, but she decided she wanted to hang out with the cattle in the neighbor's pasture across our east pasture fence. 1300 lbs of grumpy, hormonal cow is no fun. We're going to get a traveling butcher to handle things, we were expecting something a bit more ...socialized. :)
I love the graphics in this article and on the website, of course. They really help me understand what is going on. Thank you guys and gals for all of your hard work. (is that off topic?)
Quoting 184. ricderr:

SOOO.....after yesterdays posts concerning the WPC's QPF chart and the perceived inaccuracy of the heaviest rainfall amounts...i thought...for awhile...i would keep track of a few points withing the graph and see if they verify...it by no means is scientific...but for me at least...it will be fun...here's today's 7 day forecast...and by all means...if you think i have my totals shown wrong for precip....let me know........



so i've picked three cities for week number 1

EL PASO - 0.25"-.050"

PORTLAND - 5" -7"

OAKLAND - 3" - 4"




I saved yesterday's 7-day for the same reason :)

From yours, to me it looks like Portland is in the 3-4" zone. Others look right...though Oakland was a might tricky.
Quoting 188. ricderr:

I suggest adding either Orlando or Tampa to your research as well.

sounds good...we'll do tamps at .50-.75


Hmmm...I see nothing but dark green where Tampa is...so 0.25-0.50

That graphic, especially where colors are close together, or where there are lots of black border lines or text, can be hard to 'read' in some locations.
Quoting 184. ricderr:

SOOO.....after yesterdays posts concerning the WPC's QPF chart and the perceived inaccuracy of the heaviest rainfall amounts...i thought...for awhile...i would keep track of a few points withing the graph and see if they verify...it by no means is scientific...but for me at least...it will be fun...here's today's 7 day forecast...and by all means...if you think i have my totals shown wrong for precip....let me know........



so i've picked three cities for week number 1

EL PASO - 0.25"-.050"

PORTLAND - 5" -7"

OAKLAND - 3" - 4"



what else I see is 1.8 inch bull's-eye on the North Shore/Merrimack Valley of Massachusetts, and the NEw Hampshire Sea Coast, with temps in the teens, that 24-30 inches of snow
185. Webberweather53
2:00 PM EST on February 06, 2015


Nice work. Would be interested on your take as to whether the issues you discuss as to the Indian Ocean can be extrapolated as a possible influence on the continued Enso neutral conditions we have seen in the Atlantic Basic during hurricane season for several years now (no declared shift there to El Nino or La Nina during H-season) and the recent explosion of E-Pac storms the last two seasons in that region under the same "neutral" conditions; thanks in advance.
Hmmm...I see nothing but dark green where Tampa is...so 0.25-0.50

That graphic, especially where colors are close together, or where there are lots of black border lines or text, can be hard to 'read' in some locations.



i'm color blind.......so....the others my wife checked for me...i took a shot at tampa...lol...i'll make the change though
Thank you Mr Henson for enlightening us on what will probably happen over the next few days.
Its a bit like a stock market prediction where you can never really tell who is going to be the winners and the loser's but its dead certain where the middle of the field are.
Speaking of which is Pedley in on this one yet?

Here in Europe its very cold and we in the Iberian peninsular have snow drifts up to 10 feet deep, thousands of trucks stuck in the snow and a few cars, who were told not to drive but thought they know better or rather their drivers did!

The news was like a slide show of an ice age tonight qwith about 30 minutes of constant snow drift problems and breakdowns.

Nothing more to add from my zone other than we have clear blue skies and Minus temps -1/c last night, coldest its been for 2 years on my in house thermometer. I am not too sure how cold it was outside the house, as I don't go out there too much in the winter anymore.

Here's a photo/map from AEMet.

http://www.aemet.es/es/eltiempo/observacion/satel ite/masas

"Eureka" WFO Rainbow

NEXRAD Radar
Eureka, Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation Range 124 NMI

Quoting 198. Patrap:

NEXRAD Radar
Eureka, Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation Range 124 NMI


Pat.
Hasn't that rather missed the desired target by about 800 mile?
Quoting 185. Webberweather53:


Very nice. I'm curious to see if a similar change has occured with La Nina patterns over the years. For example, here in L.A. our last above-average wet season happened while this was going on:



Perhaps I should be hoping for a cool ENSO, lol.
I was looking at the WunderMap for weather stations, zooming in on the Yukon / Alaska area and noticed that current temps in that are now cooling to the -40 to -50 deg range. Is there a forecast for a portion of this mass of cold air to break off and move south over the Rockies in the next 3 to 4 weeks?
Quoting 196. PlazaRed:

Thank you Mr Henson for enlightening us on what will probably happen over the next few days.
Its a bit like a stock market prediction where you can never really tell who is going to be the winners and the loser's but its dead certain where the middle of the field are.
Speaking of which is Pedley in on this one yet?

Here in Europe its very cold and we in the Iberian peninsular have snow drifts up to 10 feet deep, thousands of trucks stuck in the snow and a few cars, who were told not to drive but thought they know better or rather their drivers did!

The news was like a slide show of an ice age tonight qwith about 30 minutes of constant snow drift problems and breakdowns.

Nothing more to add from my zone other than we have clear blue skies and Minus temps -1/c last night, coldest its been for 2 years on my in house thermometer. I am not too sure how cold it was outside the house, as I don't go out there too much in the winter anymore.

Here's a photo/map from AEMet.

http://www.aemet.es/es/eltiempo/observacion/satel ite/masas


this is mostly north of san fran event ped in south may get a few drops nothing compared to the north
With each passing update these totals continue to go up for Monday. Looks like a .50 to 1.25" event come Monday across the FL Penisula.

From Navy Hydrography Center Bulletin (1200 UTC February 6)

WARNING NR 098/2015

SPECIAL WARNING

ISSUED AT 1530 - FRI - 06/FEV/2015

SUBTROPICAL STORM “BAPO” WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 AT 30S043W, MOVING AT 10/15 TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH WIND 7/8 WITH GUSTS 9/10 AFFECTING AREA ALFA EAST OF 050W, AREA BRAVO SOUTH OF 28S AND EAST OF 043W AND SOUTH OCEANIC AREA WEST OF 035W. ESTIMATED POSITION AT 071200 – 34S044W. IT IS NOT EXPECTED THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE REACHES COASTAL REGION.

VALID UNTIL 080000.
what else I see is 1.8 inch bull's-eye on the North Shore/Merrimack Valley of Massachusetts, and the NEw Hampshire Sea Coast, with temps in the teens, that 24-30 inches of snow

i stayed away from areas of snow...as honestly...i don't know if the precip totals....are actual snowfall...or water quantities of that snowfall...i'm sure i could find the answer...but ignoring those areas is easier :-)
Quoting 204. Tropicsweatherpr:

From Navy Hydrography Center Bulletin (1200 UTC February 6)

WARNING NR 098/2015

SPECIAL WARNING

ISSUED AT 1530 - FRI - 06/FEV/2015

SUBTROPICAL STORM “BAPO” WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 AT 30S043W, MOVING AT 10/15 TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH WIND 7/8 WITH GUSTS 9/10 AFFECTING AREA ALFA EAST OF 050W, AREA BRAVO SOUTH OF 28S AND EAST OF 043W AND SOUTH OCEANIC AREA WEST OF 035W. ESTIMATED POSITION AT 071200 – 34S044W. IT IS NOT EXPECTED THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE REACHES COASTAL REGION.

VALID UNTIL 080000.




Brazil has a list of names starting with the present Subtropical Storm Bapo.



Brazil Navy Hydrology Center


With each passing update these totals continue to go up for Monday. Looks like a .50 to 1.25" event come Monday across the FL Penisula.



scott...fyi...you state rainfall totals as great as one and a quarter inches and post a graph showing a quarter to 3/4 inch total
Quoting 204. Tropicsweatherpr:

From Navy Hydrography Center Bulletin (1200 UTC February 6)

WARNING NR 098/2015

SPECIAL WARNING

ISSUED AT 1530 - FRI - 06/FEV/2015

SUBTROPICAL STORM “BAPO” WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 AT 30S043W, MOVING AT 10/15 TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH WIND 7/8 WITH GUSTS 9/10 AFFECTING AREA ALFA EAST OF 050W, AREA BRAVO SOUTH OF 28S AND EAST OF 043W AND SOUTH OCEANIC AREA WEST OF 035W. ESTIMATED POSITION AT 071200 – 34S044W. IT IS NOT EXPECTED THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE REACHES COASTAL REGION.

VALID UNTIL 080000.


I'm not sold that this is actually Subtropical. Geostationary imagery seems to indicate that it's still pretty frontal.



Interestingly enough, there was another system about two weeks ago off the SE coast of Brazil. I feel like that one was much more likely to have been subtropical than this one has so far shown.
Quoting 202. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

this is mostly north of san fran event ped in south may get a few drops nothing compared to the north

Another anti climax for Ped's storm hopes.
Well at least somebody's getting drenched!

Seriously though, its good news for some people at least.
Quoting 208. ricderr:


With each passing update these totals continue to go up for Monday. Looks like a .50 to 1.25" event come Monday across the FL Penisula.



scott...fyi...you state rainfall totals as great as one and a quarter inches and post a graph showing a quarter to 3/4 inch total


Ric, FYI there is decent agreement among the Euro and CMC that those totals will continue to go higher as PWAT's rise to near 1.7" and 500mb temps drop to the -18C to -20C. That is a very unstableenviroment for this time of year as the sun angle is getting pretty high now.
Quoting 203. StormTrackerScott:

With each passing update these totals continue to go up for Monday. Looks like a .50 to 1.25" event come Monday across the FL Penisula.


did you look at the northeast yet???
any thoughts on this?..clipped from NOAA site.......................There’s something unexpected happening to our oceans. The chemistry of the seawater is changing due to too much carbon dioxide. It’s called “ocean acidification,” and researchers are now finding evidence of this change in our coastal waterways.

The increasing rate and amount of our carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is progressively affecting the ocean system, causing the acidity of sea water to increase — a number one priority to many carbon and climate scientists. Researchers at NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) in Seattle have been studying this global problem for more than three decades and continue to monitor ocean acidification in all the world’s oceans from coral reefs to deep North Pacific waters.
is there a tipping point on acidity of the oceans?..a point where marine life becomes endangered?,,doc?
Over 5 inches along the Oregon coast so far.
Quoting 214. LargoFl:

is there a tipping point on acidity of the oceans?..a point where marine life becomes endangered?,,doc?

We passed it about 15 years ago!
At 400 PPM of CO2 nothing that was secure with regard's to climate means much anymore. Carbonic acid etc. Not to even want to mention methane!

Marine life is already dying and cant migrate fast enough, mainly due to not being that mobile.

The next phase of marine evolution will be, anything that can move fast enough might survive, as long as I can tolerate acidic seas.

Ric, FYI there is decent agreement among the Euro and CMC that those totals will continue to go higher as PWAT's rise to near 1.7" and 500mb temps drop to the -18C to -20C. That is a very unstableenviroment for this time of year as the sun angle is getting pretty high now.


scott...i'm not arguing your predictions....we'll serve you a bit of crow after the event if it's warranted...LOL...i was just trying to say...if it was me...and i was posting a graphic with a post...i would want one that didn't differ from what i was saying...just me....you do as you please...no hard feeling....cest la vie and all :-)
Quoting wxvoyeur:
Over 5 inches along the Oregon coast so far.

Rain has stopped last two hours. Sun even came out for a second. Where's the rain? Oregon, I guess.
Quoting 217. ricderr:

Ric, FYI there is decent agreement among the Euro and CMC that those totals will continue to go higher as PWAT's rise to near 1.7" and 500mb temps drop to the -18C to -20C. That is a very unstableenviroment for this time of year as the sun angle is getting pretty high now.


scott...i'm not arguing your predictions....we'll serve you a bit of crow after the event if it's warranted...LOL...i was just trying to say...if it was me...and i was posting a graphic with a post...i would want one that didn't differ from what i was saying...just me....you do as you please...no hard feeling....cest la vie and all :-)


Your the only one getting fat off crow lately not me. I've been crow free for awhile now but if I feel like fattening up on crow i prefer extra crispy. LOL! If you notice I have been reserve with my forecast for sometime now.
Bill Nye showcasing his ignorance on twitter today.

Link
Quoting 216. PlazaRed:


We passed it about 15 years ago!
At 400 PPM of CO2 nothing that was secure with regard's to climate means much anymore. Carbonic acid etc. Not to even want to mention methane!

Marine life is already dying and cant migrate fast enough, mainly due to not being that mobile.

The next phase of marine evolution will be, anything that can move fast enough might survive, as long as I can tolerate acidic seas.


gee thanks..this could be very serious over time.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Sub surface warm pool continues to grow now are pretty good area of 3C's showing up. This does not bode well for an active Hurricane Season.



So what does that mean for Florida? You've been saying recently that the set up looks like it would be bad for Florida.
February 6th, 2015.
Subtropical Storm Bapo (South Atlantic).
Winds of: 40 mph
Gusts of: 50 mph
Pressure: 996 mbar
Moviment: South-Southwest at 7 mph


Forecast from the NWS out of Ruskin for the Tampa Bay area.

Sunday Sunny, with a high near 75. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 8 mph in the morning.
Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. West northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Monday A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 69. Calm wind becoming west southwest 5 to 7 mph in the morning.

Monday Night A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 52. West wind 7 to 13 mph.
Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 63. North wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Quoting Chucktown:
Bill Nye showcasing his ignorance on twitter today.

Link

In other news, it's going to be in the 60s tomorrow. Thanks agw!

(This is sarcasm)
global temp anomaly jan 2015

Another foot of snow for Boston. Gotta keep that snowpack strong. We'll torch into the upper 50s over the weekend here.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

In other news, it's going to be in the 60s tomorrow. Thanks agw!

(This is sarcasm)


The problem is twofold. One, that is not a picture of Jackson Hole, two Jackson Hole has 94 inches of snow on the ground.

Link
Your the only one getting fat off crow lately not me. I've been crow free for awhile now but if I feel like fattening up on crow i prefer extra crispy. LOL! If you notice I have been reserve with my forecast for sometime now.

yeah...if i have to admit..you have toned it down.....but.....crow free?....rainfall across central florida from the last storm as much as twice the montly average?.....and enso posts......you've been in the crow line too...LOL......don't worry...i think crow tastes good

Some people are getting drowned like Rats....
Quoting 231. Chucktown:



The problem is twofold. One, that is not a picture of Jackson Hole, two Jackson Hole has 94 inches of snow on the ground.

Link


The problem is indeed two fold. He posted a picture of Jackson Hole, Wyoming the city, and you assumed it was Jackson Hole the ski resort. Two different things...maybe worry less about Bill Nye's twitter posts?

Edit: I've been to quite a few ski resorts where the slopes were open with a good base (being higher altitude and up on the mountain) while the city's themselves were without snow. I think this reeks of a cheap shot at Bill Nye...
Quoting Chucktown:


The problem is twofold. One, that is not a picture of Jackson Hole, two Jackson Hole has 94 inches of snow on the ground.

Link
One, that is most definitely Jackson Hole (I should know; I used to live there).

Link



Two: As you can see, while there is certainly snow around the valley, there are also great swaths of snowless ground. That tends to happen when the temperatures are well over freezing even in the high Rockies.



What was that about ignorance? :-)
STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 01 FOR WEST COAST HEAVY RAINS AND HIGH WINDS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
100 PM PST FRI FEB 06 2015

...HEAVY RAINS AND HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

FLOOD WATCHES...FLOOD ADVISORIES AND FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
FOR THE COASTAL SECTION OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

FOR A DETAILED GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE LATEST
WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV

AT 1200 PM PST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN EXTENDED FROM MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF
CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN OREGON AND WESTERN WASHINGTON
STATES. A BATCH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAD SPREAD INTO EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN IDAHO.

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES FROM 400 AM PST WED FEB
04 THROUGH 000 PM PST FRI FEB 06...

...CALIFORNIA...
PETROLIA 7.4 SE 7.99
SHELTER COVE 1.2 ENE 7.11
MIRANDA 4.1 SW 6.45
ETTERSBURG 6.01
BRIDGEVILLE 5.2 ENE 5.73
REDWAY 1.8 WSW 5.18
GARBERVILLE 2.9 SW 4.62
BRIDGEVILLE 10 S 3.46

...OREGON...
O'BRIEN 2 SW 5.43
SELMA 5 NNE 5.08
OBRIEN 2 WSW 4.50
GRANTS PASS 9.5 W 3.88
TILLAMOOK 16.1 ENE 3.85
HARBOR 1 NNW 3.51
BROOKINGS 1 SE 3.50
WILDERVILLE 5 NNW 3.43
RIDDLE 1 S 2.36
NORTH BEND 2 ENE 1.05

...WASHINGTON...
HOODSPORT 3.7 WNW 8.06
BRINNON 1.7 WSW 7.47
SEABECK 3.7 SSW 4.50
SKOKOMISH 3.88
SEATTLE 5.6 SSW 1.90
KENT 1.50
STAIRCASE RAPIDS 1.50
JEFFERSON CREEK RAWS 1.47

...SELECTED PEAK WIND GUSTS IN MILES PER HOUR EARLIER IN THE
EVENT...

...CALIFORNIA...
EL DORADO 64
FALL RIVER MILLS 52

...MONTANA...
FAIRFIELD 7 NE 72
ELK MOUNTAIN 7 NW 58

...NEVADA...
RENO 16 SSW (TOP OF SLIDE MNT) 134
GARDNERVILLE 70
WASHOE 66

...OREGON...
GARIBALDI 1 SW 61


A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND FRONTS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO
BRING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN INTO THE WESTERN U.S. ESPECIALLY THE
WIND-FACING SLOPES OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGES SUCH AS THE
CASCADES AND THE SIERRA NEVADA. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE COASTAL REGION
THROUGH NEXT MONDAY WITH OVER 10 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA NEVADA. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND DANGEROUS MUDSLIDES! IN
ADDITION...HIGH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

THE NEXT STORM SUMMARY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER AT 700 PM PST. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT.

KONG
Quoting 221. LargoFl:

gee thanks..this could be very serious over time.

As we used to say in the Broncs!
What about ~Fundi! of the west coast of Madagaster?

Sea slugs are going to take over.
No hope for anything historically viable, the future is in the valance's of chemistry!
Quoting 218. RedwoodCoast:


Rain has stopped last two hours. Sun even came out for a second. Where's the rain? Oregon, I guess.

Largest North Bay 24 hour amount outside of some higher elevation stations is 1.23 inches at Santa Rosa Airport. Only spits of light rain thus far here in the East Bay. Gusty SE wind. Barometer rose again.
Quoting Neapolitan:
One, that is most definitely Jackson Hole (I should know; I used to live there).

Link



Two: As you can see, while there is certainly snow around the valley, there are also great swaths of snowless ground. That tends to happen when the temperatures are well over freezing even in the high Rockies.



What was that about ignorance? :-)


Still ignorant in my book. He's a mechanical engineer, needs to stay out of the climate debate. After my forecast tonight, I think I'll offer advice in real estate here on WU. Stay tuned...
Quoting 221. LargoFl:

gee thanks..this could be very serious over time.

As we used to say in the Broncs!
What about, Fundi! of the west coast of Madergaster?

Sea slugs are going to take over.
No hope for anything historically viable, the future is in the valancies of chemistry!

Then again we could be wrong, misinterpreted or simply deluded.
Always a possibility!
Quoting 229. Drakoen:

Another foot of snow for Boston. Gotta keep that snowpack strong. We'll torch into the upper 50s over the weekend here.
This weekend is going to be nice! They can keep that snow up there and when it melts its going to cause problems.
Quoting 243. Naga5000:



Take your own advice, you already look pretty foolish in the climate change debate with this little backfired attempted attack.


Whatev, you "guys" will spin this stuff any way you see fit. Both you and Nea need to work at FOX. Puleeze...
Quoting 245. Chucktown:



Whatev, you "guys" will spin this stuff any way you see fit. Both you and Nea need to work at FOX. Puleeze...


How hard is it to just say, "I made a mistake, sorry" and go about your business while demonstrating that personal responsibility your side is so keen on? Seriously.


Tampa Bay area
Quoting Naga5000:


How hard is it to just say, "I made a mistake, sorry" and go about your business while demonstrating that personal responsibility your side is so keen on? Seriously.


No mistake made here sir, everything I posted is true with links to support my claim. Anything else? How do you feel about a mechanical engineer as your climate change spokesperson? Kinda silly I think.
pablosyn
Now then why did I copy this link?
I think we have to take this very seriously as there is not much chance left of a big rain in your area or Sao Paulo for what its worth.

The reality of the situation is that what seems to have happened to you! Is about to happen to California?
Hope it doesn't materialise for them like you are suffering.

For the moment I think I have run out of ideas.
Over to the future for the next phase.


20% chance of rain.... nice temps
Quoting 250. PlazaRed:

pablosyn
Now then why did I copy this link?
I think we have to take this very seriously as there is not much chance left of a big rain in your area or Sao Paulo for what its worth.

The reality of the situation is that what seems to have happened to you! Is about to happen to California?
Hope it doesn't materialise for them like you are suffering.

For the moment I think I have run out of ideas.
Over to the future for the next phase.


Whats is the point?
Quoting 169. sar2401:

For at least the next week for the South. It looks like we will be getting back to normal or even above normal temps and the fronts for Monday and Thursday are looking progressively weaker as they approach. Without a decent low in the Plains dropping our way and getting some good return flow, the chances of convective severe weather are slim to none. Once we get past February 15 we start to exit our secondary severe weather season until we get into mid or late March and the main event. Not saying it can't happen, as we saw with the rogue tornado in Florida yesterday, but the chances aren't high.



Basically, it'll probably be isolated severe weather at best with a tornado here and there.
Quoting 238. BayFog:


Largest North Bay 24 hour amount outside of some higher elevation stations is 1.23 inches at Santa Rosa Airport. Only spits of light rain thus far here in the East Bay. Gusty SE wind. Barometer rose again.

And now it's dropping again, and the gusts are ramping up, but still little rain.
Winter Storm Marcus: Long-Lived Northeast

More Snow Ahead
A train of potent disturbances in the jet stream will sweep south of the Canadian border into the Great Lakes and Northeast this weekend. Eventually, a more pronounced southward dip in the jet stream will carve out near the East Coast kicking off the work week.

Cold air near the surface over much of the Northeast will be reinforced by three factors: 1) eastern Canadian high pressure nosing southward early next week, 2) the already refrigerated air mass behind an arriving arctic front late this week and 3) the existing heavy snowpack not allowing temperatures to rebound much late this week.
Quoting 251. PedleyCA:


20% chance of rain.... nice temps
I see a mini hurricane thing off the coast.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
223 PM PST FRI FEB 6 2015

THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR THE NORTH BAY.

I'm not saying anything...yet.

Quoting 221. LargoFl:

gee thanks..this could be very serious over time.
The oceans have been more acidic in the past and life continued to thrive in the oceans, as the animals will continue to adopt to their changing environment. Some forms will pass on and new forms will evolve, as the rate of acidification is happening at a rate most life can survive and adapt to.
Quoting 256. washingtonian115:

I see a mini hurricane thing off the coast.

I'm pretty sure that's an upper air vortex, spun up by the approach of the jet max. Things might still get interesting if that arctic air that's been roaring out of Alaska can reach the jet axis.
Quoting 252. pablosyn:



Whats is the point?

The point is here!
For your drought to rain possibility's.

Link

Quoting 256. washingtonian115:

I see a mini hurricane thing off the coast.

Ruh-roh
You might just have a bit of a chance with this little number for a bit of drought relief.

Link

Hope it works out and you get a lot of rain from the west wing of this thing.
All the best PlazaRed.
Atmospheric River, AR? Is this a new meteorological term? I've not heard it used before.
Quoting 266. pocketrocket:

Atmospheric River, AR? Is this a new meteorological term? I've not heard it used before.

No, it's not new. Here's the Wiki page on them, and you may have missed the blog post on 2/3/15, Atmospheric River Heads for California as a Massive Field Study Gears Up (worth reading if you haven't).

BTW, I see it's your first post. Welcome!
Quoting 266. pocketrocket:

Atmospheric River, AR? Is this a new meteorological term? I've not heard it used before.
no it happens when an influx of moisture spits off the tropical zones and travels either east north east or west north west depending on time of year and variables of seasonal influences
after seven years of lurking welcome
Quoting 267. LAbonbon:


No, it's not new. Here's the Wiki page on them, and you may have missed the blog post on 2/3/15, Atmospheric River Heads for California as a Massive Field Study Gears Up (worth reading if you haven't).

BTW, I see it's your first post. Welcome!


It's relatively new. The phenom is not new. Perhaps we need a scale of terms like we have for winds, hurricanes and tornadoes. e.g. trickle, rivulet, creek, stream, river, flood.
271. wxmod
Clouds taking the shape of an electrical field in southern AK yesterday. MODIS satellite photo.
Quoting 271. wxmod:

Clouds taking the shape of an electrical field in southern AK yesterday. MODIS satellite photo.

interesting formations there is an abnormal flow as of current from east to west causing a pile up of clouds maybe

Wind steady at 40ish mph, with gusts so far up to 58mph.

The ground looks nicely scoured. Carson Sink is in the air! :)

Power went out 20minutes ago, NVEnergy reports on their website four outages, all scattered around the edges of Fallon. Ours is probably the one on Pasture Rd, near the Air Station.

Kids are excited that they get to light candles as the power will be restored around 6:45 to 7:30pm. So says NVE, that is.

The clouds look neat.
Quoting NativeSun:
The oceans have been more acidic in the past and life continued to thrive in the oceans, as the animals will continue to adopt to their changing environment. Some forms will pass on and new forms will evolve, as the rate of acidification is happening at a rate most life can survive and adapt to.
Right. Did you know that by the end of this century, the earth's oceans will have become more acidic than they have been in more than 20,000,000 years? That sounds like a rate of transformation far too large and quick for any organism to adapt or evolve--especially the one billion plus people who rely primarily on the ocean for food.
Quoting 273. nonblanche:

Wind steady at 40ish mph, with gusts so far up to 58mph.

The ground looks nicely scoured. Carson Sink is in the air! :)

Power went out 20minutes ago, NVEnergy reports on their website four outages, all scattered around the edges of Fallon. Ours is probably the one on Pasture Rd, near the Air Station.

Kids are excited that they get to light candles as the power will be restored around 6:45 to 7:30pm. So says NVE, that is.

The clouds look neat.
be careful with the candles a small fire can erupt into a roaring inferno in the matter of seconds I don't like fire
Quoting 261. BayFog:


I'm pretty sure that's an upper air vortex, spun up by the approach of the jet max. Things might still get interesting if that arctic air that's been roaring out of Alaska can reach the jet axis.
Its been a while since we saw a good looking tropical system in the Atlantic..Time for hurricane porn
might be a little too extreme wash no
Having a difficult time seeing where the waters started rising:



:-)
The first named south Atlantic tropical cyclone since Arani, Bapo.

EDIT -- spelling, Arani, not Anari.

Significant Winter Storm Possible Early Next Week
Perhaps the storm to watch closely for widespread travel disruptions in the Northeast, including the mid-Atlantic, will be the caboose of the train.
Sometimes the last storm in the series ends up being the strongest and the largest. This is because the storm has the least competition and marks the start of a new weather pattern.
There is some indication that as the last storm in the series moves from the central Appalachians to the upper mid-Atlantic coast, it will strengthen from late Sunday into Monday. As this happens, cold air will spread southward, along with the risk of wintry precipitation.
Felix is highly underrated..
Quoting 284. washingtonian115:

Felix is highly underrated..



Nah. I still adore its rapid intensification in the Caribbean. It's actually one of the fastest jumps in the historical record.
Quoting 285. KoritheMan:



Nah. I still adore its rapid intensification in the Caribbean. It's actually one of the fastest jumps in the historical record.
I'm was surprised it survived the dry air that comes off S.A that's usually a killer to most storms that close.
Quoting 277. washingtonian115:

Its been a while since we saw a good looking tropical system in the Atlantic..Time for hurricane porn


Only about 4 months.

Flashback Friday
Quoting 285. KoritheMan:



Nah. I still adore its rapid intensification in the Caribbean. It's actually one of the fastest jumps in the historical record.
yeah it was the mark that began the transition to rapid storm development when it occurs or at least it appears that way for me systems seems to dev much faster than earlier in my observation of development
Quoting 289. hurricanes2018:



gonna point it right at ya

snow machine fan
Just started to rain lightly again after a 6-hour break (including many sun breaks). The roads and parking lots had all dried out. Wind is still out of the south (although light) so maybe we'll get some more.

My Forest Service friend was out in the field today and he said most streams are running brown but still pretty low. People are kind of rolling their eyes at this, another busted forecast. Our "10-15 inches" is only at 3.19 (not including the usual suspects like Honeydew and Del Norte County). I think the Humboldt Bay area experienced some serious rain shadow effects from the King Range during this system.
293. vis0
Oldest Stars Are 100 Million Years Younger Than We Thought (was one of BaltimoreBrian's headlines) i say maybe the background is older so the stars appear younger...that's why i always take 3 or 4 centenarians with me on a date as they hang out behind me i look younger. PS-Do not take grothar, heck they'd stop  centenarians going into a G rated movie with gro behind them.
Quoting 287. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Only about 4 months.


Yes Gonzalo was gentle on the eyes unlike most of the deformities we saw prior and the year before.Hoping we at least see one respectable looking storm this year.
not a hurricane extropcyc
Time to classify 94W.

1998-2005 were the GOOD hurricane seasons. 2007 and 2008 also weren't too bad.

I miss the years where we had westward-moving major hurricanes in the central or western Caribbean.

Keith, Iris, Lili, Ivan, Wilma, Gustav. Those.
I don't think I would have classified Bapo yet, but it does seem to be headed in that direction. It is beginning to detach from that cloud band that I analyzed as a front earlier and convection is starting to build in the vicinity of the center.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Only about 4 months.



Gonzalo was probably the finest hurricane we've tracked since Igor. Had he held on a bit, he could have gone all the way to Category 5.
Quoting 302. Tornado6042008X:

Can someone please%uFFFFtell me why my post was removed?

could cause some to think its a real event and it is really not
to prepare and post official looking weather information that may or could cause confusion I guess that's why

its a comm flag thing
so I take it that is likely the logical answer
Quoting KoritheMan:
1998-2005 were the GOOD hurricane seasons. 2007 and 2008 also weren't too bad.

I miss the years where we had westward-moving major hurricanes in the central or western Caribbean.

Keith, Iris, Lili, Ivan, Wilma, Gustav. Those.


Hurricane Dean (2007) was an absolutely phenomenal westward Caribbean cruiser.
Quoting 307. CybrTeddy:



Hurricane Dean (2007) was an absolutely phenomenal westward Caribbean cruiser.


ok that's enough hurricane not saying the other word wash from me
Quoting 287. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Only about 4 months.



Yep! Gonzalo (Edouard as well, but to a lesser extent) was a definite reminder that the Atlantic is still capable of producing a spectacular and intense hurricane. It was definitely a very entertaining one to track.
last one here cybr

Quoting 282. CybrTeddy:

The first named south Atlantic tropical cyclone since Anari, Bapo.



Arani*. Means "Bad Weather" in Tupi Guarani. I'm brazilian haha
Quoting 306. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

could cause some to think its a real event and it is really not
to prepare and post official looking weather information that may or could cause confusion I guess that's why

its a comm flag thing
so I take it that is likely the logical answer
Not that its a big deal or that I'm even mad about it but I DID say in bold that my post was not an official forecast. Not that I'm trying to make a scene out of it. But anyways thanks for the feedback and sorry to whoever I offended or confused. It was not my intention.
I don't think offended had anything to do with it more so how well you made it look too well maybe

Not that I don't like the hurricane images, but back on the west coast the threat of landslides has approached a few critical thresholds. Notably, the Antecedent Wetness Index (created by USGS to measure precipitation vs soil stability to determine landslide probability) has been reached at all NWS gauge stations used for Western Washington including Seattle.

It's been a few months since they've even bothered to update these graphs. They only do so when needed. Given the fact that it's still supposed to rain for another 48 hours, I suspect that it will be long nervous weekend for people in the landslide prone areas of Seattle.
...CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST OREGON...

A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED LARGE SCALE PRECIPITATION EVENT WAS UNDERWAY
TODAY. A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A BREAK IN LARGE SCALE ORGANIZATION
BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE PERIOD FROM MIDDAY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT HOLDS THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...WHOSE
VALUES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 1 INCH IN 1 HOUR OR 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES
IN 3 HOURS. THE EVENT APPEARS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO
STRONG...THOUGH NOT EXCEPTIONAL...ANOMALIES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
(3.0 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY) AND 850 MB MOISTURE
FLUX (4.5 TO 5.0). THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY RAIN
RATES APPROACHING 3-HOUR FFG WERE CONFINED TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FACING TERRAIN IN THE SHASTAS AND COASTAL RANGES...DURING THE
ONSET OF A 60-65 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET.

A RAPID SUCCESSION OF UPPER JET STREAKS TODAY WILL COUPLE WITH ONE
ANOTHER TO ENHANCE DEEP LAYER ASCENT WHILE ALSO PROMOTING HEIGHT
FALLS...AND ALLOWING THE RIVER OF MOISTURE-LADEN LOW LEVEL AIR TO
ADVANCE BOTH EAST AND SOUTH. ACCORDINGLY...HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRAS AND COASTAL RANGES WITH A RELATIVE
RAIN SHADOW IN BETWEEN. IN COORDINATION WITH THE LOCAL OFFICES WE
EXTENDED NARROW SLIGHT RISK AREAS SOUTHWARD TO MATCH THE HIGH
TERRAIN. BURN SCARS ARE OF PARTICULAR CONCERN. OUTPUT FROM THE
HRRR...WRF-ARW...AND SREF ALL SUPPORT LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.75
TO 1.0 INCHES IN AN HOUR AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS
AND SOUTHERN SIERRAS BY EVENING.

SOME BRIEF CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE...AND A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED LATE THIS MORNING AROUND
SACRAMENTO...BUT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL NOT INCREASE MUCH
UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES MORE BODILY INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A MORE STRONGLY DEFINED
SURFACE FRONT.

BURKE
We may have some good hurricanes this year if el nino doesn't interfere. Some hurricane agencies such as gwo are already prediction an above average intense season with 14 named storms,8 hurricanes,and 3major hurricanes, with at least 3 landfalling hotspots and one major hurricane. Don't forget SAL either?
When Florida got creamed! RIP 2004-2005 may never see a 2 year stretch like that in our lifetime again.

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
Gale Warning
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE FUNDI (09-20142015)
4:00 AM RET February 7 2015
===================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Fundi (989 hPa) located at 23.3S 42.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 6 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
Extending up to 40 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 45 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
==================
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the southern semi-circle and up to 9a0 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 24.6S 43.0E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS 25.8S 43.3E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS 31.2S 42.8E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS 33.5S 38.0E - 35 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)

Additional Information
=================
During the last 6 hours, the cloud tops have warmed near the center but the overall vorticity remains fairly impressive with a rather well defined center on classical imagery. Fundi seems to suffer from some westerly shear that brings dry air at the mid levels within the circulation.

The system is currently moving over warm enough waters. Up to 26.0S, the ocean heat content is good enough, and it drops regularly up to 30.0S. The 1200z cycle from the euro numerical weather prediction model show a less conducive atmospheric environment until Sunday. The shear is not expected to relax enough as it will turn northwesterly to northerly ... so the intensity forecast has been adjusted accordingly. From Sunday night and beyond, over cooler sea surface temperatures and an increasing shear environment, Fundi should start to loose its tropical characteristics.

Up to Monday morning, the system should remain on the same track over the western edge of the str and towards a weakness located near 45.0E. Fundi should accelerate gradually mainly on Sunday. Monday, the weakness is removed and a transient ridge is expected to build south of the system and bend the track temporarily westwards. Tuesday, the ridge shift rapidly to the west of the system and a new polewards turn is expected. During the middle of next week, Fundi is expected to dissipate within the mid-lat westerlies.

Fundi brings locally heavy rainfall over large portions of the western part of Madagascar. This heavy rainfalls potential will continue up to Sunday night as it spreads southwards towards the Tulear/Cape Sainte-Marie area.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02
9:00 AM JST February 7 2015
================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Marshall Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 9.7N 157.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 10.5N 155.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marshall Islands
True koritheman. Csu thinks maybe active
Quoting 326. tiggerhurricanes2001:

True koritheman. Csu thinks maybe active
Despite GWO not being that reliable, what were the hotspots?
I know many people are looking forward to a bland hurricane season again but I think it may surprise us.Eh I don't know just a hunch that I didn't have about the other two (2013,2014).
329. MahFL
The "river" lined up heading into CA.

Quoting 328. washingtonian115:

I know many people are looking forward to a bland hurricane season again but I think it may surprise us.Eh I don't know just a hunch that I didn't have about the other two (2013,2014).
Those zones were of high probability for Florida texas Louisiana mississippi
How active do you guys think the season will be?
333. txjac
Quoting 313. washingtonian115:




I so dislike seeing pictures of the people fleeing Rita ....so many lives lost, like almost for nothing.
I know that Washi has almost been begging for spring to start, but here in Houston I love to see the lower temps.
Hard to believe that we will be at 68-70 this weekend. I love the cool, rainy weather that we have had. Our own little Texas winter like weather. I really enjoy the fireplace and would love a few more days this month to light it.
Sorry my friend Washi ...let's keep this winter a bit longer ...lol
334. txjac
Quoting 332. tiggerhurricanes2001:

How active do you guys think the season will be?


Haven't been really thinking about it much yet. At this point in time my "gut" is telling me its gonna be pretty non-eventual. That could change though when I really starting thinking about it ...lol
335. MahFL
Quoting 332. tiggerhurricanes2001:

How active do you guys think the season will be?


With a neutral ENSO and slightly above normal sea temps, I'd say it will be an above average active year, with some US mainland strikes.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
last one here cybr



I remember that very screenshot being posted here early in the morning on August 21st, 2007. Dean (and Felix a few weeks later) was the only Atlantic Category 5 I really tracked on here. It was something to see a small invest grow into a Category 5 hurricane in the span of a few weeks. While I've always been highly passionate about tracking tropical cyclones, watching the genesis and evolution of Hurricane Dean was what hooked me for good.
Don't you think time is running out for el nino at the moment. I mean atmospheric coupled is hard to find because the northern hemisphere is warming up. I don't think it's even going to happen.


light snow on saturday for the northeast
weather here in northern cali is crazy the wind is really bad...didnt think it would be like this
2015 hurricane season? Forget about it. I'm not ready to put numbers on it, but it sure won't be active.





Little-no accumulation: Chicago, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Philly, southern NYC metro, Baltimore, Washington, D.C.

Once again, the NYC metro forecast will be a bit of a challenge, with a large north-south snowfall gradient from up the Hudson Valley (more snow) to the five boroughs and Newark (less snow).

As mentioned earlier, warmer air riding up over subfreezing air near the surface may generate a stripe of sleet and/or freezing rain from parts of the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast this weekend.

We're not expecting an ice storm with numerous power outages and tree damage. However, at least some trace ice accumulations may lead to dangerous travel on untreated roads this weekend in these areas.

Expect travel impacts in the Great Lakes Saturday into Sunday, spreading into the Northeast Saturday through Tuesday. Both the Monday morning and evening commutes will be impacted in Boston, Syracuse and Hartford. Flight delays and cancellations are possible from late Sunday into early Tuesday at Boston-Logan and the three major NYC area airports.
Little-no accumulation: Chicago, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Philly, southern NYC metro, Baltimore, Washington, D.C.

Once again, the NYC metro forecast will be a bit of a challenge, with a large north-south snowfall gradient from up the Hudson Valley (more snow) to the five boroughs and Newark (less snow).

As mentioned earlier, warmer air riding up over subfreezing air near the surface may generate a stripe of sleet and/or freezing rain from parts of the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast this weekend.

We're not expecting an ice storm with numerous power outages and tree damage. However, at least some trace ice accumulations may lead to dangerous travel on untreated roads this weekend in these areas.

Expect travel impacts in the Great Lakes Saturday into Sunday, spreading into the Northeast Saturday through Tuesday. Both the Monday morning and evening commutes will be impacted in Boston, Syracuse and Hartford. Flight delays and cancellations are possible from late Sunday into early Tuesday at Boston-Logan and the three major NYC area airports.
Statistically speaking, most years ending with a 5 since the era of satellites have been predominantly active hurricane seasons. The exception is 1965, yet we had a Category 4 Hurricane Betsy.
Quoting 332. tiggerhurricanes2001:

How active do you guys think the season will be?


That's going to hinge on whether or not an El Nino forms. Also, SSTs are currently below average for the Gulf while the Caribbean has slightly above average SSTs. Here's the map of the rest of the Atlantic.





If current trends continue, then we may be in for a slightly below average hurricane season.
345. txjac
Quoting 343. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Statistically speaking, most years ending with a 5 since the era of satellites have been predominantly active hurricane seasons. The exception is 1965, yet we had a Category 4 Hurricane Betsy.


Very interesting ..will have to check that out.

I'd take some of this, but it won't make it down here..
Quoting 345. txjac:



Very interesting ..will have to check that out.
It is interesting, but I guess I should point out that atmospheric conditions and dynamics will trump statistical data any given day of the year. As MAweatherboy1 has shown below if those conditions persist, I wouldn't expect anything more than an average season.
one question,on average,what time of year do north Atlantic ssts start rising
What is considered the first year of accurately counting tropical systems?
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
2015 hurricane season? Forget about it. I'm not ready to put numbers on it, but it sure won't be active.







That's a very unfavorable SST setup. Cool water out by the Cape Verde islands and the warmest concentration of SST temperatures at about 35-40N. Combined with the continued lack of vertical instability in the MDR, if this were June 1st I'd peg my numbers at 11/3/1 or some such. However, given we really don't begin to get something resembling an understanding until March I will hold my tongue on a forecast. Right now, it doesn't look good (or looks great, depending on your point of view).
A must read, this whole thing about the Thermohaline Circulation impacting the AHS is interesting and how Climate Change is impacting the THC. In a way it makes sense, look at all the warm water anomalies in the North Atlantic, the warm waters we typically see in the equatorial regions have become displaced, it has even happened to the North Pacific as well and the Gulf of Alaska.

Mixed predictions for 2015 Atlantic hurricane season



COLORADO, United States, Thursday February 5, 2015 – While long-range forecasts for 2015 Atlantic hurricane activity indicate another average to slightly below average season, there is some divergence of opinion so far in advance of the official start of the season on June 1.

The respected team of Klotzbach and Gray from Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science believes that we remain in an active era for Atlantic basin tropical cyclones since 1995 (despite the quiet seasons that occurred in 2013-2014), and say that they expect typical conditions associated with a positive Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) and strong thermohaline circulation (THC) will return in 2015.

In December, the Colorado State forecasters noted that it was challenging to forecast whether or not the then developing weak El Niño would persist through the 2015 hurricane season. While significant weakening of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and thermohaline circulation (THC) was noted during the spring of 2014, North Atlantic SST and sea level pressure patterns have since rebounded to conditions characteristic of an active era.

Klotzbach and Gray anticipate that the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season activity will be primarily determined by the strength of the THC/AMO and by the state of ENSO.

For the 2015 hurricane season, four possible scenarios are anticipated with the probability of each as indicated below:

THC circulation becomes unusually strong in 2015 and no El Niño event occurs (resulting in a seasonal average net tropical cyclone (NTC) activity of ~ 180) – 10 percent chance.
THC continues in the above-average condition it has been in since 1995 and no El Niño develops (NTC ~ 140) – 40 percent chance.
THC continues in above-average condition it has been in since 1995 with the development of a significant El Niño (NTC ~ 75) – 40 percent chance.
THC becomes weaker and there is the development of a significant El Niño (NTC ~ 40) – 10 percent chance.

Hence a large range of uncertainty remains about the outlook, which appears to suggest anything from slightly above average to below average, based on the extended range qualitative outlook. Typically, hurricane seasons with those NTC values have the following tropical cyclone activity:

180 NTC – 14-17 named storms, 9-11 hurricanes, 4-5 major hurricanes
140 NTC – 12-15 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, 3-4 major hurricanes
75 NTC – 8-11 named storms, 3-5 hurricanes, 1-2 major hurricanes
40 NTC – 5-7 named storms, 2-3 hurricanes, 0-1 major hurricane

The greatest probability envisioned so far in advance was consequently thought to be from 8 to 15 named tropical storms, with from 3 to 9 hurricanes and 1 to 4 major hurricanes.

An earlier prediction from British-based Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) said that their extended range forecast suggested another below average season in 2015.

Based on projected climate signals, TSR forecast Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity to be around 20 percent below the 1950-2014 long-term norm and around 30 percent below the recent 2005-2014 10-year norm.

TSR said that its main predictor for this extended range forecast is expected July-September trade wind speed over the Caribbean Sea and tropical North Atlantic. TSR noted that this can influence cyclonic vorticity (how storms spin up) as well as vertical wind shear in the main hurricane track region.

While noting a low level of precision in its long range predictions, TSR forecast 13 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 intense hurricanes, with accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 79.

The 65-year climate norm is 11 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes and ACE of 102, while the 10 year average is 15 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes and ACE of 113.



Read more: http://www.caribbean360.com/news/mixed-predictions -2015-atlantic-hurricane-season#ixzz3R1bvWxRH
Well,atmospheric patterns will most likely start developing in spring,it seems like the off season time has gone by so fast.
Quoting 348. tiggerhurricanes2001:

one question,on average,what time of year do north Atlantic ssts start rising
anytime after mar 15 when u start to see small changes occur in the MDR
Quoting 351. GTstormChaserCaleb:

A must read, this whole thing about the Thermohaline Circulation impacting the AHS is interesting and how Climate Change is impacting the THC. In a way it makes sense, look at all the warm water anomalies in the North Atlantic, the warm waters we typically see in the equatorial regions have become displaced, it has even happened to the North Pacific as well and the Gulf of Alaska.

Mixed predictions for 2015 Atlantic hurricane season



COLORADO, United States, Thursday February 5, 2015 – While long-range forecasts for 2015 Atlantic hurricane activity indicate another average to slightly below average season, there is some divergence of opinion so far in advance of the official start of the season on June 1.

The respected team of Klotzbach and Gray from Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science believes that we remain in an active era for Atlantic basin tropical cyclones since 1995 (despite the quiet seasons that occurred in 2013-2014), and say that they expect typical conditions associated with a positive Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) and strong thermohaline circulation (THC) will return in 2015.

In December, the Colorado State forecasters noted that it was challenging to forecast whether or not the then developing weak El Niño would persist through the 2015 hurricane season. While significant weakening of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and thermohaline circulation (THC) was noted during the spring of 2014, North Atlantic SST and sea level pressure patterns have since rebounded to conditions characteristic of an active era.

Klotzbach and Gray anticipate that the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season activity will be primarily determined by the strength of the THC/AMO and by the state of ENSO.

For the 2015 hurricane season, four possible scenarios are anticipated with the probability of each as indicated below:

THC circulation becomes unusually strong in 2015 and no El Niño event occurs (resulting in a seasonal average net tropical cyclone (NTC) activity of ~ 180) – 10 percent chance.
THC continues in the above-average condition it has been in since 1995 and no El Niño develops (NTC ~ 140) – 40 percent chance.
THC continues in above-average condition it has been in since 1995 with the development of a significant El Niño (NTC ~ 75) – 40 percent chance.
THC becomes weaker and there is the development of a significant El Niño (NTC ~ 40) – 10 percent chance.

Hence a large range of uncertainty remains about the outlook, which appears to suggest anything from slightly above average to below average, based on the extended range qualitative outlook. Typically, hurricane seasons with those NTC values have the following tropical cyclone activity:

180 NTC – 14-17 named storms, 9-11 hurricanes, 4-5 major hurricanes
140 NTC – 12-15 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, 3-4 major hurricanes
75 NTC – 8-11 named storms, 3-5 hurricanes, 1-2 major hurricanes
40 NTC – 5-7 named storms, 2-3 hurricanes, 0-1 major hurricane

The greatest probability envisioned so far in advance was consequently thought to be from 8 to 15 named tropical storms, with from 3 to 9 hurricanes and 1 to 4 major hurricanes.

An earlier prediction from British-based Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) said that their extended range forecast suggested another below average season in 2015.

Based on projected climate signals, TSR forecast Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity to be around 20 percent below the 1950-2014 long-term norm and around 30 percent below the recent 2005-2014 10-year norm.

TSR said that its main predictor for this extended range forecast is expected July-September trade wind speed over the Caribbean Sea and tropical North Atlantic. TSR noted that this can influence cyclonic vorticity (how storms spin up) as well as vertical wind shear in the main hurricane track region.

While noting a low level of precision in its long range predictions, TSR forecast 13 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 intense hurricanes, with accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 79.

The 65-year climate norm is 11 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes and ACE of 102, while the 10 year average is 15 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes and ACE of 113.



Read more: http://www.caribbean360.com/news/mixed-predictions -2015-atlantic-hurricane-season#ixzz3R1bvWxRH
Quoting 343. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Statistically speaking, most years ending with a 5 since the era of satellites have been predominantly active hurricane seasons. The exception is 1965, yet we had a Category 4 Hurricane Betsy.


I was bored so I made this. Since 1950 btw.

compare 2015 top 2014 bottom same date

Usually csu has more accuracy than tsr. Well anyway, i'm only 13 almost 14 years old,and have a passion for weather. Hurricanes and local weather really got me hooked. Thanks for your help. I've already posted my 2015 hurricane season predictions on maxweather's wunderblog as 15,8,4.
Well the 2015 year to date sst charts show that today's sst are a little warmer than this time last year in the Caribbean and coast of Africa which may support an active season
Quoting 357. VAbeachhurricanes:



I was bored so I made this. Since 1950 btw.


Nice!

Quoting 340. MAweatherboy1:

2015 hurricane season? Forget about it. I'm not ready to put numbers on it, but it sure won't be active.







Very similar variables to what we saw during 2014, except that the situation is much more mature already. Warm ENSO is already in place and AMO is barely positive.
Quoting 359. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Usually csu has more accuracy than tsr. Well anyway, i'm only 13 almost 14 years old,and have a passion for weather. Hurricanes and local weather really got me hooked. Thanks for your help. I've already posted my 2015 hurricane season predictions on maxweather's wunderblog as 15,8,4.

Well this is a great place to start! I started here as a 12 year-old almost 5 years ago (can't believe it) and I've learned a lot from this blog. I would just hang back and try to learn some and engage if you want to learn more about something. You won't really see anything about hurricanes as a topic on the blog until we get into April and May. Hurricanes are my passion too so I've been in your same position.
Good luck, Welcome and try to not feed the trolls :)
Quoting 349. VAbeachhurricanes:

What is considered the first year of accurately counting tropical systems?

1851 is when reliable record-keeping began. Reanalysis has found several storms during the 1800s and early 1900s, however. The mid-1960s is when the cyclone count really became accurate (due to the advent of satellite).
The CMC -- I mean, the GFS -- has been smoking the good stuff tonight.

Quoting 346. PedleyCA:


I'd take some of this, but it won't make it down here..


can you post this same map but further north?
Quoting 365. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The CMC -- I mean, the GFS -- has been smoking the good stuff tonight.




(Cody doesn't understand this really corny joke.)
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
2015 hurricane season? Forget about it. I'm not ready to put numbers on it, but it sure won't be active.







Really why is that just curious? Absolutely absurd statements on here months aways from the season let alone the " real " season.
Quoting 231. Chucktown:



The problem is twofold. One, that is not a picture of Jackson Hole, two Jackson Hole has 94 inches of snow on the ground.

Link

You should have dug a little deeper. Jackson Hole the ski area has 94" in the upper area but only 34" in the lower area. The summit of the ski area is 10,450 ft. and the base is 6,310. Jackson Hole the city is about 10 miles southeast of the ski area away from the big mountains and 6,237 ft. I've been there 4 or 5 times in both summer and winter and Nye's picture looks like Jackson Hole to me.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02
15:00 PM JST February 7 2015
================================
Tropical Depression Near Marshall Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 10.3N 157.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving north northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 10.5N 155.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marshall Islands

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
Gale Warning
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE FUNDI (09-20142015)
10:00 AM RET February 7 2015
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Fundi (991 hPa) located at 23.9S 42.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 6 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
Extending up to 35 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 40 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
==================
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the southern semi-circle and up to 70 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/W1.0/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 25.7S 43.0E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS 27.6S 43.5E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS 34.0S 41.8E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS 35.1S 40.1E - 35 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)

Additional Information
=================
0417z f18 microwave swath shows a tild existing between low level circulation center and mid-upper level circulation center as the system is experiencing a westerly vertical wind shear constraint. Within the same time, humid monsoon inflow is now limited by a terrestrial path and mid-level dry air air is advected by the west (refer to meteosat7 infrared and water vapor) at 0600z meteosat7 visible imagery, vortex is partially exposed and deep convective activity is mainly rejected in the northeastern quadrant. Thunderstorm activity keeps however very active far from the center in the northern sector in the convergence area between monsoon flow and Funsi clockwise circulation.

The system is currently moving over warm enough waters. Up to 26.0S, the ocean heat content is good enough, and it drops regularly up to 30.0S.

The shear is not expected to relax enough as it will turn northwesterly to northerly ... from Sunday night and beyond, over cooler sea surface temperatures and an increasing shear environment, Fundi should start to loose its tropical characteristics.

Up to Monday morning, the system should remain on the same track over the western edge of the subtropical ridge and towards a weakness located near 45.0E. Fundi should accelerate gradually mainly on Sunday. Monday, the weakness is removed and a transient ridge is expected to build south of the system and bend the track temporarily westwards. Tuesday, the ridge shift rapidly to the west of the system and a new polewards turn is expected. During the middle of next week, Fundi is expected to dissipate within the mid-lat westerlies.

Fundi brings locally heavy rainfall over large portions of the western part of Madagascar. This heavy rainfalls potential will continue up to Sunday night as it spreads southwards towards the Tulear/Cape Sainte-Marie area
Quoting 368. TylerStanfield:



(Cody doesn't understand this really corny joke.)


This is really funny, thanks for the humor! so many in this blog are ready to cut some throats! at opposing views!
Quoting 280. Neapolitan:

Having a difficult time seeing where the waters started rising:



:-)


filling up!
Quoting 367. Barefootontherocks:

24 hr Day 1 Quantitative Precip Forecast 00z (8 pm Pacific time) Saturday - O0z Sunday


24 hr Day 2 QPF 00z Sunday to 00z Monday



00z is 4 pm Pacific Standard Time (zulu/UTC-8)
Good morning, everyone. I have no idea why I'm awake. At any rate, got a couple of emails from friends in Sonoma County, California. At least for the North Bay, it seems the atmospheric river was a lot shallower than first predicted. The rain has stopped there and neither one got over three inches of rain, which is about typical for a good winter storm there. Some of the usually favored places got eight to nine inches but they get that when we have any kind of organized rain in the North Bay. One friend is especially miffed. He finally got out Thursday and added extra guying to his anemometer mast at my behest in anticipation of some really high winds. His top gust was just 43 mph. Windy but nothing unusual. At least the ungrateful rat now has a properly guyed mast. :-)

Monterrey has a good summary of why the forecast hasn't played out. Just like the NYC blizzard, placement of the low is critical to how much rain California gets. Instead of the low sinking further south, it stayed north, so Washington state is feeling the full force of this storm.

COMPARISON: THE DEC 11-12, 2014 STORM CENTER TRACKED NE OVER 40N/130W
THEN NORTH AND HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
LOW WITH TODAY'S STORM WAS MUCH FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST COMPARED
TO THE DEC STORM BUT STILL HAD A SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER.
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL REPORTS IN NORTHERN SONOMA
COUNTY ACTUAL RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS HIGH NOR AS
WIDESPREAD AS SOME THE RECENT FORECAST MODELS HAD INDICATED. THIS
TRANSLATED INTO GREATLY REDUCED HYDRO PROBLEM POTENTIAL TODAY
COMPARED TO OTHER TIMES WHEN ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS SET UP. ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS HELPED GREATLY TOO SINCE WE RECENTLY WENT THROUGH A
RECORD DRIEST JANUARY FOR MULTIPLE CLIMATE SITES IN THE AREA. ALL
IN ALL...VENADO NW SONOMA COUNTY HAD 9 INCHES RAIN TODAY BUT GENERALLY
REPORTS OF 1-4 INCHES OF RAIN FELL OVER THE BAY AREA WITH THE
NORTH CENTRAL COAST STILL WAITING FOR THE HEAVIER RAINS TO ARRIVE.
A REDUCTION IN RAINFALL TOTALS COMPARED TO RECENT WEATHER MODEL
QPF PREDICTIONS MAY BE DUE TO GREATER THAN ANTICIPATED DRY
SLOTTING...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED ATMO RIVER AS WELL AS STRONG AND PROLONGED E-SE SURFACE
WINDS SETTING UP TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SAT OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA CAUSING SOME LEE OF TERRAIN DOWN-SLOPING AND DRYING
WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND ITS RAIN BAND. ADDITIONALLY WESTERLY
STEERING WINDS ARE NOW PICKING UP WHICH WILL MOVE THE ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. FORECAST TRENDS INCLUDE A GENERAL
DECREASE IN RAIN OVERNIGHT SF BAY AREA FIRST THEN THE CENTRAL
COAST ON SATURDAY MORNING.
Quoting tampabaymatt:
Good morning, Matt. Tomorrow night's front is looking more moisture starved than ever this morning. The low track looks to be even further north, taking the moisture and dynamics with it. The WPC may not be far off now with 0.40" to 0.50" down that way as the front picks up a little moisture from the Gulf but some light rain looks like about it. For me, it looks like the usual tenth of an inch. The front Thursday looks even worse, with virtually no moisture associated with it. All it does is open the door for another Arctic blast. At least we should hit 70 today after yet another cold overnight low of 28. Everything but the hardiest of my landscaping plants are now dead. :-(
382. vis0
HOW EMBARRASSING i posted my rough draft instead of the corrected version.(whats below is better?, didn't say you'd be able to understand it just not my rough draft.

Were 'bout to enter what i call in the science of Galacsics the 2 week
anomaly period, "2wkAnom"

- This is the only time where the universe
"allows" a complex planet to be on its own as in where its 100% physics &
only 33% Galacsics.
- During the rest NON "2wkAnom" periods (2wkAnom happen 6
times in 365.25 days, each lasts ~14 days) its 100% Physics / 66% Galacsics.  If
one is tapping into Galacsics as the ml-d is, its then 100% Physics / 100%
Galacsic via ml-d taped into SETTINGS.  IMPORTANT, remember physics based
oscillations by nature are Higher/Lower so a weather pattern can go by a
physical oscillation when the Osc. is low and have weather / wxpatterns not be
affected, in other words the oscillation looses it influence when its on a low
curve. While Galacsics based "oscillations" are Inward-outward, so Galacsic
"Oscillations" are always present at their centered most archor, you cannot go
through it without being affected. This is what some parts of science are trying
to figure out as the push-pull trigger of scientific "worm holes". Therefore
Galacsic Osc. are the micro-triggers for the physical changes in weather under
NORMAL non ml-d influenced weather activities. BACK to the next few
weeks...
- This means anything that taps into Galacsics as what i call the
ml-d during the "2wkAnom" is at ~33% strength at its inner most AOI, 22% center
most ml-d AOI & 11% at the out most ml-d AOI, THIS IS DURING THE FIRST THIRD
OR 4.6 days of this 2wkAnom.
- This "2wkAnom" begins somewhere within the
next 1-3 days.(Today being Feb 7 2015 ~1AM EST)
- What will happen?, i do not
know since my good predictions are made when i use Galacsics as my base for an
educated guess. As to an educated guess when it comes to physics, lets see hmm
2 2 = 22?!
Remember my completely sucky 2014 TS prediction, that was not
using Galacsic "Gnowledge".
- MJO gets its opportunity to show off during
this time AO/NAO phases as well.
- This does NOT mean nature might not choose
as natures next wxtrend a prominent AO/NAO or MJO or any other physics based

oscillation after these "2wkAnoms" but that whatever those 3 & other
physics centered oscillation are in the next few days watch as the all of a
sudden begin to affect weather more directly and MODELs will get a "better hold"
on weather activities as MODELS will be predicting more like what weather was
before
2009/2010 (ml-d ON continuously, throws monkey wrench into
predictions as i'm sure no model has in its input that there is a weather
influencing device in NYC),

~1998 till 2009 ( i began to leave ml-d ON
for at times half a year BUT NOT CONTINUOUSLY so nature by natures self
was mainly in charge,

1969-~1998(ml-d ON 2 months, NOT CONTINUOUSLY,
though a few years i added as much as 6 more weeks.

...not to mention the
ml-d will be busy with
a couple of LOWS/fronts over it, that means Cali has
more chance (maybe not an all out AtmosRiver, maybe a strong Atmospheric stream)
at receiving moisture in the next week with a weaker Jet Stream than Cali had
with the stronger more southerly cooler Jet stream(s) that just curved northward
of Cali.  Just like when Cali received more moisture in DEC2014 as Niño was
sliding down, not when ENSO east was warmer.  If models had arms they'd be using
it to scratch their "headends".  Just think, weaker ENSO equals more
precipitation for CA. no, but thats what happened
-or- 
weaker and not
as far south northern Jet Stream yet also more precipitation from a weaker
atmospheric stream than "the river" in a few days, lets watch.
- After the
first 4.6 days, starting on day 5 of the "2wkAnom"  all ml-d AREAs will begin to
rise towards 2/3rds of their max settings. Ml-d reaches that full 2/3rds
level by day ~9.2 of that "2wkAnom".  Then by the ~14th day into the "2wkAnom"
the ml-d is going towards full strength (with a 3 day delay period for physics
to assimilate to being influenced by a continuous Gal. oscillation, ml-d...its
okay? to say Galacsics Oscillation? abbreviated no~?, okay i'll spell out the
O).
What happens next, after the "2wkAnom", ends by ~ Feb 22,23,24?, 2015,
lets watch as the only real proof are the MODELs "FaaAH- REEKING OUT AGAIN.  

WxCh or "vongfong" (no i'm not cursing in another language, its a member's
user name) should name storms after famous Ghosts, for the so many ghost storms,
i pick Casper (he was friendly),
       outJOY
I wouldn't have expected to see such a pronounced pattern. Thanks.

Quoting 357. VAbeachhurricanes:



I was bored so I made this. Since 1950 btw.


Winter Storm Watch
Statement as of 4:55 AM EST on February 07, 2015

...Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from late tonight through
late Monday night...


* locations...areas of Massachusetts north of the Connecticut
and Rhode Island border. This includes the city of Boston
along with Charlemont...Greenfield...Orange...Barre...
Fitchburg...Framingham Lowell...Lawrence...Gloucester...
Chesterfield...Blandford... ...Amherst...Northampton...
Springfield...Milford...Worcester... Foxboro...Norwood...
Cambridge...Quincy and Ayer.


* Hazard types...snow.


* Snow accumulations...8 to 16 inches possible.


* Timing...a period of light snow develops this afternoon...then
becoming steadier late tonight into Sunday with periods of
moderate to heavy snow Sunday night...Monday and Monday night.


* Impacts...hazardous driving conditions can be expected during
this long duration event. Blow and drifting snow likely
yielding poor visibility at times.


* Winds...northeast 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.


* Temperatures...around 20.


* Visibilities...one quarter mile or less at times.


Precautionary/preparedness actions...


A Winter Storm Watch is issued for the potential of accumulating
snow of 6 or more inches in a 12 hour period...or 8 or more
inches in a 24 hour period. Anyone traveling in the next 24 to
36 hours should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to modify
travel plans should winter weather develop.


Quoting 369. hurricane23:



Really why is that just curious? Absolutely absurd statements on here months aways from the season let alone the " real " season.

If you saw or understood the graphics I posted you would realize it. To spell it out more clearly for you:
* Very unfavorable Atlantic SST configuration, similar to last season. This greatly limits CV season.
* Warm ENSO state, which increases Atlantic shear, especially in the Caribbean.
* Continued well below average Atlantic instability.

Same problems that have plagued the basin the last two seasons. When you have three of the most important indicators pointing in the same direction, these hurricane seasons really aren't hard to predict, in a general sense. There is absolutely no way you will get an above average season, at least from an ACE standpoint, with this setup. It can change to some extent, which is why I'm not throwing out numbers yet, but to call my statement absurd without any proof of your own is weak.

And of course there is the "it only takes one" adage, which holds true every year. I'm speaking in a general sense. There may only be 1 major hurricane this season, but no one can know where it will go.
Meanwhile, in the Boston area, another foot of snow is on the way...

Quoting 308. washingtonian115:





I really thought that was like right now and that I've been missing something.
Considering this is the first time I've logged on in 4 months
I think the AMO will be more telling than the enso come hurricane season. last year we had netural conditions but the season felt like an el nino.(weak atlantic, explosive pacific) the warm ssts in the higher latitudes disrupt the cycle of storms forming in the deep tropics. Usually the warmest water is in the tropics which allows areas of low pressure to consolidate but since it is displaced, low pressure has a very tough time consolidating into something. 2012-2014 are perfect examples of a 3 year period where this has happened.
Quoting 386. MAweatherboy1:


If you saw or understood the graphics I posted you would realize it. To spell it out more clearly for you:
* Very unfavorable Atlantic SST configuration, similar to last season. This greatly limits CV season.
* Warm ENSO state, which increases Atlantic shear, especially in the Caribbean.
* Continued well below average Atlantic instability.

Same problems that have plagued the basin the last two seasons. When you have three of the most important indicators pointing in the same direction, these hurricane seasons really aren't hard to predict, in a general sense. There is absolutely no way you will get an above average season, at least from an ACE standpoint, with this setup. It can change to some extent, which is why I'm not throwing out numbers yet, but to call my statement absurd without any proof of your own is weak.

And of course there is the "it only takes one" adage, which holds true every year. I'm speaking in a general sense. There may only be 1 major hurricane this season, but no one can know where it will go.


The bigger question is if 2015 Atlantic season is not active the pot goes up again with the "Has the active era since 1995 ended".Is still early but the signs so far don't point to an active 2015.I agree that MDR looks grim right now but I would like to see how April and May do in terms of all the factors to then have a more better idea and have my forecast numbers ready to add to Max poll.
391. vis0

Quoting 343. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Statistically speaking, most years ending with a 5 since the era of satellites have been predominantly active hurricane seasons. The exception is 1965, yet we had a Category 4 Hurricane Betsy.
my fox crashed as i forgot to set the memory control app to "super-duper memHogging but worth it Site" position so it crashed. Here the capture of what i was to type in.  ..satiristically responding. (i know its satirically, Uncky Goog told me so)
392. vis0
Quoting 380. sar2401:

Good morning, everyone. I have no idea why I'm awake. At any rate, got a couple of emails from friends in Sonoma County, California. At least for the North Bay, it seems the atmospheric river was a lot shallower than first predicted. The rain has stopped there and neither one got over three inches of rain, which is about typical for a good winter storm there. Some of the usually favored places got eight to nine inches but they get that when we have any kind of organized rain in the North Bay. One friend is especially miffed. He finally got out Thursday and added extra guying to his anemometer mast at my behest in anticipation of some really high winds. His top gust was just 43 mph. Windy but nothing unusual. At least the ungrateful rat now has a properly guyed mast. :-)

Monterrey has a good summary of why the forecast hasn't played out. Just like the NYC blizzard, placement of the low is critical to how much rain California gets. Instead of the low sinking further south, it stayed north, so Washington state is feeling the full force of this storm.

COMPARISON: THE DEC 11-12, 2014 STORM CENTER TRACKED NE OVER 40N/130W
THEN NORTH AND HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
LOW WITH TODAY'S STORM WAS MUCH FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST COMPARED
TO THE DEC STORM BUT STILL HAD A SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER.
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL REPORTS IN NORTHERN SONOMA
COUNTY ACTUAL RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS HIGH NOR AS
WIDESPREAD AS SOME THE RECENT FORECAST MODELS HAD INDICATED. THIS
TRANSLATED INTO GREATLY REDUCED HYDRO PROBLEM POTENTIAL TODAY
COMPARED TO OTHER TIMES WHEN ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS SET UP. ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS HELPED GREATLY TOO SINCE WE RECENTLY WENT THROUGH A
RECORD DRIEST JANUARY FOR MULTIPLE CLIMATE SITES IN THE AREA. ALL
IN ALL...VENADO NW SONOMA COUNTY HAD 9 INCHES RAIN TODAY BUT GENERALLY
REPORTS OF 1-4 INCHES OF RAIN FELL OVER THE BAY AREA WITH THE
NORTH CENTRAL COAST STILL WAITING FOR THE HEAVIER RAINS TO ARRIVE.
A REDUCTION IN RAINFALL TOTALS COMPARED TO RECENT WEATHER MODEL
QPF PREDICTIONS MAY BE DUE TO GREATER THAN ANTICIPATED DRY
SLOTTING...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED ATMO RIVER AS WELL AS STRONG AND PROLONGED E-SE SURFACE
WINDS SETTING UP TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SAT OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA CAUSING SOME LEE OF TERRAIN DOWN-SLOPING AND DRYING
WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND ITS RAIN BAND. ADDITIONALLY WESTERLY
STEERING WINDS ARE NOW PICKING UP WHICH WILL MOVE THE ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. FORECAST TRENDS INCLUDE A GENERAL
DECREASE IN RAIN OVERNIGHT SF BAY AREA FIRST THEN THE CENTRAL
COAST ON SATURDAY MORNING.
[insideJoke]Monterrey has a good summary of why the forecast hasn't played out. Just
like the NYC blizzard
...
whew for a second there i though SAR24012 was going to say vis0 broke his ml-d...AGAIN[/insideJoke]
BTW for SAR2401,  i found a spare portable ml-d stored in a special sphere. Special? Made of Krypton-ite, some rare moon magnet? Nope its a globe made of thick (type artists use) virgin drawing sheet, real thick paper, only thing that doesn't let ml-d accidentally interfere with the main ml-d).
BTW II., here a tidbit that some day might help science influnce quakes. You know those Japaneese roofs of 3. Well,  think in the "galacsics" theory of 2:1 at .666 to .333 remainder .001 . If those homes are CORRECTLY constructed and roofs equal a tier of 2:1 progressively and the "paper" walls use the .001 "bend" to correctly return/recycle energy "trapped" they can guarantee that the Earth under them tremble but not shake. Its a way to trggger contious small quakes instead of having one big quake every several years. In the end less destructive.  READ AS CRAZY but if anyone who reads this is around when this is discovered, point them to this comment, Ari-gato (meow)
393. vis0

Quoting 358. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

compare 2015 top 2014 bottom same date



i think the top tastes better but the bottom is less filling, what do i win!?!, what do i win!?!
(i hope its a    wxu-poster)
If you're looking for tropical action right now, you should look over to the WPac. 02W has developed and is looking very good for a tropical depression. I'd guess an upgrade will be coming at 18Z. 02W, which will be named Higos when upgraded to a tropical storm by the JMA, looks like it could pose a threat to the US territories of the Marianas, including Guam.



We will have an active peak season, and as usual a storm will come very close the NE Caribbean islands.



more snow for boston again
Quoting 387. MAweatherboy1:

Meanwhile, in the Boston area, another foot of snow is on the way...


what happern to conn snowfall
light snow here in new haven,conn right now
Quoting 394. 1900hurricane:

If you're looking for tropical action right now, you should look over to the WPac. 02W has developed and is looking very good for a tropical depression. I'd guess an upgrade will be coming at 18Z. 02W, which will be named Higos when upgraded to a tropical storm by the JMA, looks like it could pose a threat to the US territories of the Marianas, including Guam.








maybe a tropical storm soon
Quoting 245. Chucktown:



Whatev, you "guys" will spin this stuff any way you see fit. Both you and Nea need to work at FOX. Puleeze...
Quoting 249. Chucktown:



No mistake made here sir, everything I posted is true with links to support my claim. Anything else? How do you feel about a mechanical engineer as your climate change spokesperson? Kinda silly I think.

Seriously now. Admit you were wrong and let it go. You tried making a shot at someone (not really sure what the point was other than to belittle someone you disagree with) and it turned out you didn't exactly have your facts straight. Own up to it, move in. There's no reason to dig in over something so completely silly.
Quoting 395. CaribBoy:

We will have an active peak season, and as usual a storm will come very close the NE Caribbean islands.


lol
Quoting 397. hurricanes2018:

what happern to conn snowfall

Quoting 390. Tropicsweatherpr:



The bigger question is if 2015 Atlantic season is not active the pot goes up again with the "Has the active era since 1995 ended".Is still early but the signs so far don't point to an active 2015.I agree that MDR looks grim right now but I would like to see how April and May do in terms of all the factors to then have a more better idea and have my forecast numbers ready to add to Max poll. If you haven't noticed, Atlantic atmospheric patterns are still developing for the season. Who knows, sst's and vertical instability may become more favorable at a rapid paste. Many of these factors really don't develop until April when many agencies such as csu and tsr develop their forecast numbers. From my understanding, it seems as if the Caribbean sst' will be very above average, and maybe in the central gulf where temperatures are in the upper 70's. You never know.
Quoting 386. MAweatherboy1:


If you saw or understood the graphics I posted you would realize it. To spell it out more clearly for you:
* Very unfavorable Atlantic SST configuration, similar to last season. This greatly limits CV season.
* Warm ENSO state, which increases Atlantic shear, especially in the Caribbean.
* Continued well below average Atlantic instability.

Same problems that have plagued the basin the last two seasons. When you have three of the most important indicators pointing in the same direction, these hurricane seasons really aren't hard to predict, in a general sense. There is absolutely no way you will get an above average season, at least from an ACE standpoint, with this setup. It can change to some extent, which is why I'm not throwing out numbers yet, but to call my statement absurd without any proof of your own is weak.

And of course there is the "it only takes one" adage, which holds true every year. I'm speaking in a general sense. There may only be 1 major hurricane this season, but no one can know where it will go.
Hi Ma, you know it's only the first half of Feb. and all the long range models and current readings are useless at this time for forecasting this upcoming hurricane season. The best long range forecasters on the planet say their forecast are very inaccurate at this time of the year, and unless you know something they don't know than I will take what you say with a grain salt. I think these trends will change significantly during the late spring and we will get a better understanding for the upcoming season.
Special Statement
Statement as of 11:22 AM EST on February 07, 2015

An area of light snow will move across the area through noontime
with little or no accumulation. Visbilities may briefly drop down
to a less than a mile.


only 2 inches of snow for new haven
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1.5 inches of rain for us in the central part of the SF Bay Area , most of which fell during a frontal passage last night. No atmospheric river in sight, and certainly no epic anything. North coast got more rain, but that's par for the course. Again, nothing epic. Time to start analyzing the data and perhaps refining models.

Meanwhile, a lobe of that Arctic outbreak out of Alaska has reached the jet core, but modified now by ocean temps that remain above normal, and cutoff by a new frontal boundary. Still, there's a developing system under a jet max at our key benchmark of 30 N 135 E which includes some of this modified Arctic air, so maybe we get something more. Unfortunately, the tropical tap is off, out of phase, so again, no "Pineapple Connection". We'll just have to rely on our own above-normal SSTs.
I'm starting to see a few positive changes in sst''s off the coast of Georgia and Florida in the gulf stream
Thank you for the heads up!