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Potentially Historic Blizzard Taking Aim on New England

By: Bob Henson 6:30 PM GMT on January 25, 2015

The densely populated area from New York City to Boston could experience one of its ten biggest snowstorms on record early this week, as a textbook nor’easter takes shape over the next 48 hours. While local details are bound to evolve somewhat as the storm develops, the models are now in strong, consistent agreement on a potentially crippling snowstorm. Blizzard watches were hoisted on Sunday morning from eastern New Jersey to northeast Massachusetts, including the New York, Providence, and Boston metropolitan areas.

Despite the increasing skill of computer forecast models in recent years, this week’s threat emerged remarkably quickly. As recently as Friday, the model consensus was for a weaker storm that would sweep through the region from west to east, then strengthen well offshore. One of the first models to switch gears was the ECMWF, whose operational run issued at 00Z Friday night highlighted the risk of a potential blockbuster storm for the Northeast U.S. By Saturday morning, most other models had quickly joined the bandwagon. “All operational models now have the forecast of a major snowstorm/blizzard,” said NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center on Sunday morning.

The driver for this record-threatening event is a strong upper-level wave now diving across the Midwest. In line with the pattern of several other storms this year, this wave will produce a stripe of snow from northern Indiana and Ohio into Pennsylvania, dropping several inches on the Washington and Philadelphia metro areas by Monday afternoon. On its heels, a powerful branch of the jet stream will continue diving southeastward, intensified by a unusually strong ridge over the western U.S. that produced record highs across Washington, Oregon, and California on Saturday. As it moves off the mid-Atlantic coast, the upper-level energy will consolidate into a powerful upper-level low and generate a rapidly intensifying surface low. Surface pressures may drop by more than 24 millibars in 24 hours, qualifying the storm as a true coastal “bomb". Sea surface temperatures are well above average off the northeast U.S. coast, which could help fuel the storm’s strengthening. As it reaches peak intensity on Tuesday, the surface low is expected to slow down just southeast of Cape Cod, which would keep the snow machine going at full strength and lash the New England coast with winds gusting to 60 mph or more in places.


Figure 1. Surface winds (knots) projected by the GFS model at 06Z Sunday, January 25, valid at 09Z Tuesday, January 27. As the surface cyclone winds up south of Long Island, winds exceeding 50 knots are projected to batter Cape Cod. For winds in mph, multiply by 1.15. Photo credit: WunderMap.


It appears that all of the classic ingredients are lining up to produce a historic nor’easter snowstorm. Temperatures on Sunday morning across southern New England were near or slightly above freezing, but a weak cold front is pushing through the area, steered by a separate branch of the jet stream over eastern Canada. This cold, dry low-level air, plus the storm’s track being far enough offshore, will ensure that nearly all precipitation falls as snow for the duration of this storm across the entire region. The main exception is the outer reaches of Cape Cod and Nantucket, where a periodic changeover to rain is possible.

How much snow?
The heaviest snow totals are likely to occur along a SW-to-NE belt oriented from somewhere near or just east of New York City to eastern Massachusetts in or near Boston. In situations like these, narrow strips of intense snow (mesoscale bands) are typically oriented along an upper-level “bent-back” warm front that arcs west from the consolidating storm. Wherever these bands set up, snowfall rates can easily exceed 3”/hour. It’s impossible to predict the exact location of the bands this far in advance. However, mesoscale forecast tools such as NOAA’s new High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model (which became operational just last fall) should provide more detailed guidance by late Monday.

Given the projected intensity of this storm, as well as the strong model agreement and the textbook nature of the overall pattern, it seems very plausible to expect widespread snowfalls from Monday night through Tuesday night of 12” to 24” between northern New Jersey and southwest Maine, with some areas in mesoscale bands getting 24” to 36”. Lesser amounts can be expected further to the southwest, with Philadelphia possibly getting a few inches on top of its Monday total. If the system moves more slowly than expected, it could add to the accumulations on the southern and western flank of the vast snow shield. Massive transportation impacts can be expected over the next several days, with reverberations to the air-traffic system nationwide. The high winds and snow could lead to large-scale power outages across New England.


Figure 2. Snowfall from this week's storm at some New England sites could rival the amounts produced by Winter Storm Nemo, shown here in its full glory at Auburn, Massachusetts, on the evening of February 8, 2013. Photo credit: wunderphotographer stoneygirl.

The most recent analog event for this week's storm is the Blizzard of 2013, aka Winter Storm Nemo, which dropped 24.9” in Boston (the city’s fifth highest snowfall on record) and a storm maximum of 40” at Hamden, Connecticut. The strongest banding and heaviest snowfalls in Nemo extended from central Long Island across eastern Massachusetts to southwest Maine, where Portland had its highest-ever storm total (31.9”). This storm is somewhat less likely to produce massive totals in Maine, but the amounts in southern New England could be comparable to Nemo in places. Only a slight difference in the orientation of the mesoscale banding can make a big difference in whether a particular spot gets a major snowstorm or a record-smashing one. If either Boston or New York gets 20” or more, this week’s storm will make it into either city’s top-ten list. This outcome appears somewhat more likely in Boston than New York, based on the latest models. Current NWS forecasts are calling for 12-24” in New York and 18-24” in Boston, with higher local amounts possible. Since cold temperatures are assured with this system, the snow-to-liquid ratios could be on the high side for nor’easters, which would enhance the expected snow totals further.

Jeff Masters and I are keeping a close eye on this unfolding situation. We’ll post an update by Monday morning.

Bob Henson


Figure 3. “Plumes” of projected total snowfall for Boston, based on an ensemble of more than 20 model solutions compiled at 09Z on Sunday, January 25 by NOAA’s Short Range Ensemble Forecast. The dark black line indicates the model mean, which suggests that 25-26” of snow is a strong possibility for Boston. Photo credit: NOAA Storm Prediction Center.

Winter Weather Nor'Easter

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks, Mr. Henson.
As CFS predicted last week the westerly winds are starting to change the pattern in the Atlantic, this is likely to continue to change, with the cooling of the subtropics sea surface temperature.. Which favors the upcoming Atlantic Hurricanes season.

Thank you SAR, from the last blog, and also Max? Who posted that map that is more favorable to Vermont than the NWS forecast currently is for us. I am counting on you being right!
Damn, I live in Monmouth Beach, NJ.... Maybe I can escape with just a couple of inches 😄
Thanks for the update, Mr Henson
Thank you....Appears it will be a slow mover , prolonging the hazardous conditions...February may have some more of this.
Thanks Dr? Henson.1-3 inches is a good bet in D.C.seems like all the action will be from northern NJ to southern Maine.This is not our storm and I'm just ready for spring to get going real soon.
"One of their top ten snowstorms on record"

Yeah we've had quite a few of those recently.
Quoting 7. washingtonian115:

Thanks Dr? Henson.1-3 inches is a good bet in D.C.seems like all the action will be from northern NJ to southern Maine.This is not our storm and I'm just ready for spring to get going real soon.
its been like spring all winter so in spring it will look more like winter
thanks for update have a good sunday afternoon
Quoting 6. hydrus:

Thank you..It appears it will be a slow mover , prolonging the hazardous conditions...February may have some more of this.
o yeah
LOL...ridiculous..


For those in the Northeast heed your local government and NWS warnings and stay warm..its going to be a big one..
Quoting 7. washingtonian115:

Thanks Dr? Henson.1-3 inches is a good bet in D.C.seems like all the action will be from northern NJ to southern Maine.This is not our storm and I'm just ready for spring to get going real soon.

While i do agree that we haven't had an eventful winter in VA, i don't believe we should give up just yet Washi. We still have to make it through Feb. and March.
Quoting 4. mcluvincane:

Damn, I live in Monmouth Beach, NJ.... Maybe I can escape with just a couple of inches %uD83D%uDE04


I'm in New Brunswick. We're gonna take a beating.
16. scfp
The two biggest snow storms - in terms of absolute snow amounts - ever to hit the eastern New England area were the Great Northeast Blizzard of 1978, and the April Fool's Day Blizzard of 1997. I lived through both of those storms, and they certainly both were corkers.

Let's just all hope that this storm is in no way as bad as either of those two monsters were.
gfs shows a strong surge of cold developing in high nw Canadian Arctic if pattern holds this too should move across Canada's west traveling se ward to lay over lower lakes spilling across northeastern half of the us

Quoting 15. wxgeek723:



I'm in New Brunswick. We're gonna take a beating.


Time to head on over to Shoprite and stock up 😳
So this storm may be a repeat of the February 12, 2006 blizzard in NYC.

Bronx, NY
 photo IMG_0230.jpg
Quoting 19. speedy1979:

So this storm may be a repeat of the February 12, 2006 blizzard in NYC.

Bronx, NY
 photo IMG_0230.jpg



They way it looks now, yes.. Maybe worse!
As with any Noreaster, the timing and placement of the low is everything. Even a few miles can be a major difference in snow totals. I remember the storm of '93. Digging out of that sucker sucked big time.
3. REMARK: TODAY'S TASKED WINTER-STORM MISSION 04WSA HAS BEEN
BEEN CHANGED TO A66/ DROP 9 (28.2N 93.8W)/ 26/0000Z WITH A
TAKEOFF TIME OF 25/2000Z.


Link

A66 seems to be a loop in the GOM. Google Earth of a previous A66.
Thank you for the update!
Not much the storm will do here, ready for spring.
I'm in Massachusetts, near Wareham and I'm watching all the local news and TWC as well. Last year we had snow all winter long...lots of it. Looks like we're going to make up for the lack of snow in this week alone. I'm just hoping we don't lose power.
Quoting 21. Michfan:

As with any Noreaster, the timing and placement of the low is everything. Even a few miles can be a major difference in snow totals. I remember the storm of '93. Digging out of that sucker sucked big time.


Exactly. It's been shifting 50-60 miles all last night with each GFS run.
Quoting 24. Climate175:

Nothing much tomorrow, futurecast models show just about 1-3 inches, ready for spring.


Yes, I want spring! No more snow!
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1240 PM EST SUN 25 JANUARY 2015
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z JANUARY 2015
WSPOD NUMBER.....14-056

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. A62/ DROP 6 (35.8N 70.4W)/ 27/0000Z
B. AFXXX 05WSA TRACK62
C. 26/1830Z
D. 10 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 27/0200Z

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: TODAY'S TASKED WINTER-STORM MISSION 04WSA HAS BEEN
BEEN CHANGED TO A66/ DROP 9 (28.2N 93.8W)/ 26/0000Z WITH A
TAKEOFF TIME OF 25/2000Z.
Quoting 16. scfp:

The two biggest snow storms - in terms of absolute snow amounts - ever to hit the eastern New England area were the Great Northeast Blizzard of 1978, and the April Fool's Day Blizzard of 1997. I lived through both of those storms, and they certainly both were corkers.

Let's just all hope that this storm is in no way as bad as either of those two monsters were.

I lived on the Cape for the April Fool's Day storm...it was rough...not on the Cape for this one but not that far away either.
Winter Weather Preparedness

Link
Now I wish I lived in NYC.
I almost forgot about the Lake Effect snow event that affected the Buffalo area very early in the season.


Storm306 I see this looking more and more like the winter of 2010-2011 time.

The storm on Friday looks like a rain event.
Southern Queens Severe Watches & Warnings NOAA Weather Radio
Blizzard Watch
Statement as of 9:53 AM EST on January 25, 2015
...Blizzard watch in effect from Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening...

The National Weather Service in New York has issued a blizzard watch...which is in effect from Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening.

* Locations...the greater New York City metropolitan area.

* Hazard types...heavy snow and blowing snow...with blizzard conditions likely.

* Accumulations...snow accumulation of 1 to 2 feet...with locally higher amounts possible.

* Winds...north 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Visibilities...one quarter mile or less at times.

* Temperatures...in the lower 20s.

* Timing...heaviest snow and strongest winds will occur overnight Monday into Tuesday.

* Impacts...extremely dangerous travel due to heavy snowfall and strong winds...with whiteout conditions likely. Secondary and tertiary roads may become impassable. Strong winds may down power lines and tree limbs.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A blizzard watch means there is a potential for falling and/or blowing snow with strong winds and extremely poor visibilities. This can lead to whiteout conditions and make travel very dangerous.
The transition from this to green grass.
Quoting 31. Drakoen:

Now I wish I lived in NYC.
don't worry you will see snow wait
Quoting 34. TropicalAnalystwx13:




Think we'll be breaking records if the ECMWF verifies.
Quoting 37. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

don't worry you will see snow wait


Yes we will see snow tomorrow.

Sharp as ever. Thanks.



update at 2pm on jan 25 2015 watches and warnings from the winter storm add Blizzard Watch for new york city
SUBJECT: ADMINISTRATIVE: CRITICAL WEATHER DAY DECLARED ON JANUARY 25,
*TOPIC: * CRITICAL WEATHER DAY HAS BEEN DECLARED.

*DATE/TIME ISSUED**: *JANUARY 25, 2015 1735 UTC

*PRODUCT(S) OR DATA IMPACTED:*N/A**

*DATE/TIME OF INITIAL IMPACT:* JANUARY 25, 2015 1800 UTC J/D 025**

*DATE/TIME OF EXPECTED END:*JANUARY 29, 2015 0000 UTC J/D 029 ****

*LENGTH OF OUTAGE:*78HOURS*


Three day event
Now is the time to prepare !!!!


Now is the time to prepare and make sure you have the supplies you need for this potentially historic winter storm. Do not proceed with any travel plans in the affected areas late Monday and Tuesday or you could put yourself in great danger.

Key Points:

Moderate-to-heavy snow likely from portions of the coastal Mid-Atlantic (New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania) to New England.
Peak impacts late Monday through Tuesday.
Widespread accumulations of 1 to 2 feet likely with some areas picking up over 2 feet.
Blizzard or near-blizzard conditions will make travel dangerous and impossible.
Flight cancellations, major delays and possible airport closures late Monday through Tuesday.
Damaging wind gusts and coastal flooding also possible.
Lighter snowfall from the Midwest to the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic Sunday into early Monday.
The initial track of the low so far north also helps to keep our surface temperatures above freezing until the storm off the coast takes over and starts really winding up. Under such a scenario, we sometimes end up in a relative “snow hole” and only tally a coating to an inch or two in and around the city.
Quoting 30. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Winter Weather Preparedness

Link

I'd add batteries (radio, flashlight, etc.)
ready-to-eat food (if no way to cook)
lots of water (if on well water and lose power)

As a kid we always had a fireplace and/or woodstoves, but I remember more than one storm where our neighbors would end up sleeping on our living room floor because of lost power and cold houses.

For every storm, in case of power outage, since we were on well water, we filled up buckets and pots galore, so we could drink, cook, bathe, and flush.

Some New England states have considerable private well usage:



Nowadays more people have generators, but I know a lot of people back home that don't.
XX/XX/XX
Juno: Wind and Coastal Flooding Threats
Sustained winds will likely be 20 to 40 mph in a large area with gusts up to 50 mph. Even higher winds are expected in Cape Cod, Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard where gusts up to 70 mph are possible.

The winds from Juno will have three separate impacts:

1.) As mentioned before, strong winds will combine with the snow to produce low visibility and blizzard or near-blizzard conditions Monday night through Tuesday.

2.) The winds could also cause some tree damage and power outages from coastal northeast New Jersey to coastal parts of New England.

3.) Finally, winds will pile up water from the Atlantic Ocean and result in coastal flooding in some areas. Moderate to locally major coastal flooding is possible in Massachusetts during the morning and afternoon hide tides cycles on Tuesday. A coastal flood watch has been issued for this area.

Stay tuned to weather.com and The Weather Channel for updates on Winter Storm Juno.

Juno was named by the winter storm naming committee at The Weather Channel on Sunday morning. The name Juno is from Roman mythology, a goddess who looked after the women of Rome.
Quoting 45. LAbonbon:


I'd add batteries (radio, flashlight, etc.)
ready-to-eat food (if no way to cook)
lots of water (if on well water and lose power)

As a kid we always had a fireplace and/or woodstoves, but I remember more than one storm where our neighbors would end up sleeping on our living room floor because of lost power and cold houses.

For every storm, in case of power outage, since we were on well water, we filled up buckets and pots galore, so we could drink, cook, bathe, and flush.

Some New England states have considerable private well usage:



Nowadays more people have generators, but I know a lot of people back home that don't.


very few people in the Midwest have generators .. I know of only 4 people here where I live and 3 of the 4 have medical problems and require electricity for their breathing machines or O2 units ..

but many have fireplaces or wood burning stoves .. pellet stoves are very popular here with older people who don't want to cut wood .. I've had a living room full of sleeping people when power lines came down due to an ice storm here .. the wood burner comes in handy under those conditions !!
We have had light snow showers all morning with little to no accumulation so far .. temperatures are varying between 31º and 33º all morning ..

The forecast for 2-4 inches of snow just to my north hasn't yet developed !!
Quoting 49. whitewabit:

We have had light snow showers all morning with little to no accumulation so far .. temperatures are varying between 31º and 33º all morning ..

The forecast for 2-4 inches of snow just to my north hasn't yet developed !!
clear blue skies lite winds temps around 17 f chill feels like 9 or 10 at times


roads are white from the cold dry air

I am located in the cluster of buildings to the right of the two larger buildings on the left in the distance
Quoting 32. Sfloridacat5:

I almost forgot about the Lake Effect snow event that affected the Buffalo area very early in the season.






Otherwise it was a relatively quiet winter in terms of snow.
Quoting 45. LAbonbon:


I'd add batteries (radio, flashlight, etc.)
ready-to-eat food (if no way to cook)
lots of water (if on well water and lose power)

As a kid we always had a fireplace and/or woodstoves, but I remember more than one storm where our neighbors would end up sleeping on our living room floor because of lost power and cold houses.

For every storm, in case of power outage, since we were on well water, we filled up buckets and pots galore, so we could drink, cook, bathe, and flush.

Some New England states have considerable private well usage:



Nowadays more people have generators, but I know a lot of people back home that don't.


Interesting how some of the more rural Western states are in the 91-100% category, more than many Eastern states. I wonder the reason for that.
Andrew Cuomo @NYGovCuomo
In preparation for the forecasted blizzard in downstate areas, 1,806 plows and 126,000 tons of salt are ready and divided across the region.
Quoting 53. wxgeek723:



Interesting how some of the more rural Western states are in the 91-100% category, more than many Eastern states. I wonder the reason for that.


I'm guessing a combination of geology and geography? There are lots more people with a high population density in New England that are outside traditional municipal areas (areas with public water supplies). And I don't know too much about the Wests' aquifers, but perhaps potable water is too deep to make individual wells affordable?
Quoting 53. wxgeek723:



Interesting how some of the more rural Western states are in the 91-100% category, more than many Eastern states. I wonder the reason for that.


In looking at 2010 Census data, states such as California, Utah, Arizona and Nevada have a high percentage of urban to rural residents. I would venture that is the primary driver here, but I also imagine there are other factors.

https://www.census.gov/geo/reference/ua/urban-rur al-2010.html
Quoting washingtonian115:
The initial track of the low so far north also helps to keep our surface temperatures above freezing until the storm off the coast takes over and starts really winding up. Under such a scenario, we sometimes end up in a relative “snow hole” and only tally a coating to an inch or two in and around the city.


What about Monday night into Tuesday?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
So if things verify, seven of the top ten all-time snowfall events in NYC will have occurred over the past 19 years, with five of those over the past nine years. Or to put it another way: from 1869 through 1995, NYC had experienced a snowfall sufficiently heavy enough to still remain on the top-ten list for that city an average of once every 25 years. Since 1996, it will have seen one every 2 years and 8 months.

But it's just a coincidence. I'm certain of it... ;-)

Quoting LAbonbon:


I'm guessing a combination of geology and geography? There are lots more people with a high population density in New England that are outside traditional municipal areas (areas with public water supplies). And I don't know too much about the Wests' aquifers, but perhaps potable water is too deep to make individual wells affordable?


That would make sense, especially given the nature of the land in the West it is very challenging to live off the grid there. Meanwhile, country living is common in the East. Pennsylvania has nearly 3 million people living in areas considered rural, apparently the highest of any state.
Quoting 57. Sfloridacat5:



What about Monday night into Tuesday?
They still do not expect much.Maybe a addional inch or two.
Weather Prediction Center's 95th percentile (worst case scenario) graphic:

Via SPC site/OU meteorolgy students' Facebook post, this may be of interest to someone. For those unable to attend in person, this course will also be live-streamed. See the poster below for details.



Hope you all got lots of firewood in. Enjoy your snow.
As we approach the anniversary of the Gulf Coast Ice Storm of 2014, the weather could hardly be more mild and boring, boring, boring around here.
Quoting washingtonian115:
They still do not expect much.Maybe a addional inch or two.


I think this is when the D.C. area will have the best chance of seeing accumulating snowfall. The wrap around precipitation will be falling into much colder air temperatures.
Quoting Neapolitan:
So if things verify, seven of the top ten all-time snowfall events in NYC will have occurred over the past 19 years, with five of those over the past nine years. Or to put it another way: from 1869 through 1995, NYC had experienced a snowfall sufficiently heavy enough to still remain on the top-ten list for that city an average of once every 25 years. Since 1996, it will have seen one every 2 years and 8 months.

But it's just a coincidence. I'm certain of it... ;-)



Heavy precipitation events are blatantly increasing in the Northeast. Anyone with simple observation skills could pick up on that. Someone who thinks otherwise is honestly living under a rock.
Am I wrong to think that snow-wise Washington D.C. is in a transition zone? Somehow I think of it as an area where one can expect light to moderate snowfalls several times a year, but blizzard conditions quite rarely.
NWS taking no chances with this one. NYC upgraded to Blizzard Warnings.
Quoting 53. wxgeek723:



Interesting how some of the more rural Western states are in the 91-100% category, more than many Eastern states. I wonder the reason for that.


could be the depth of a needed well to get good water and the pipelines from the mountain and other areas allow feeder lines from the main trunk lines .. there aren't any of these in the Midwest and east ..
do we have any Blizzard Warnings up yet!!
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
319 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

...CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...


CTZ006>012-NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ071>075-078>081- 176>179-260430-
/O.UPG.KOKX.BZ.A.0001.150126T1800Z-150128T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.BZ.W.0001.150126T1800Z-150128T0500Z/
NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-HUDSON-EASTERN BERGEN-EASTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
319 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY AND SURROUNDING IMMEDIATE
SUBURBS...LONG ISLAND...AND MOST OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WITH BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 20 TO 30 INCHES...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTH 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS 55 TO 65 MPH...STRONGEST
ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN MONDAY MORNING...WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE BY THE EVENING RUSH.
SNOW WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW AND STRONGEST WINDS FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...LIFE-THREATENING CONDITIONS AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
TRAVEL DUE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS...WITH WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS. SECONDARY AND TERTIARY ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE.
STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...MAKING
TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

ALL UNNECESSARY TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON...TO ALLOW PEOPLE ALREADY ON THE ROAD TO SAFELY REACH
THEIR DESTINATIONS BEFORE THE HEAVY SNOW BEGINS...AND TO ALLOW
SNOW REMOVAL EQUIPMENT TO BEGIN TO CLEAR ROADS.

&&
Blizzard warnings are now up for New York city, long island, parts of northern NJ, and southern Connecticut.
Quoting 61. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Weather Prediction Center's 95th percentile (worst case scenario) graphic:


wow i see 34 inches of snow lots of conn
73. bwi
Pretty good odds for 4" in DC. Not a blockbuster like NYC and New England, but something.
Quoting 69. hurricanes2018:

do we have any Blizzard Warnings up yet!!


Yes hurricanes2018, New haven, CT is now under a Blizzard Warning.
Nemo wasn't even close to this... a historic snowstorm in years


...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY AND SURROUNDING IMMEDIATE
SUBURBS...LONG ISLAND...AND MOST OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WITH BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 20 TO 30 INCHES...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTH 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS 55 TO 65 MPH...STRONGEST
ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN MONDAY MORNING...WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE BY THE EVENING RUSH.
SNOW WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW AND STRONGEST WINDS FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...LIFE-THREATENING CONDITIONS AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
TRAVEL DUE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS...WITH WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS. SECONDARY AND TERTIARY ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE.
STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Blizzard Warning in effect from 1 PM Monday to midnight EST Tuesday night...

The National Weather Service in New York has issued a Blizzard Warning...which is in effect from 1 PM Monday to midnight EST Tuesday night. The blizzard watch is no longer in effect.

* Locations...New York City and surrounding immediate suburbs...Long Island...and most of southern Connecticut.

* Hazard types...heavy snow and blowing snow...with blizzard conditions.

* Accumulations...snow accumulation of 20 to 30 inches...with locally higher amounts possible. Snowfall rates of 2 to 4 inches late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

* Winds...north 30 to 40 mph with gusts 55 to 65 mph...strongest across eastern Long Island.

* Visibilities...one quarter mile or less at times.

* Temperatures...in the lower 20s.

* Timing...light snow will begin Monday morning...with accumulations of 1 to 3 inches possible by the evening rush. Snow will pick up in intensity Monday evening...with the heaviest snow and strongest winds from about midnight Monday night into Tuesday afternoon.

* Impacts...life-threatening conditions and extremely dangerous travel due to heavy snowfall and strong winds...with whiteout conditions. Secondary and tertiary roads may become impassable. Strong winds may down power lines and tree limbs.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds and poor visibilities will lead to whiteout conditions...making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If you must travel...have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded...stay with your vehicle.

All unnecessary travel is discouraged beginning Monday afternoon...to allow people already on the Road to safely reach their destinations before the heavy snow begins...and to allow snow removal equipment to begin to clear roads.


DOOM!!
How is enso and amo looking?
Quoting 77. tiggerhurricanes2001:

How is enso and amo looking?
Link
It's dry here today, and the wind is really strong. Looked out my window just now to see a cloud of smoke blowing across in the distance. Sure enough, you can see it on the radar: probably a controlled burn on the Air Force Base range-land.

Hello boys and girls.



MAYBE LESS SNOW FOR NEW YORK CITY!!
My Hometown...
Norwalk, CT 06851


It's crazy - mom says

Tonight
A slight chance of snow after 3am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 19. Wind chill values between 10 and 15. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday
A chance of snow before noon, then snow likely with widespread blowing snow between noon and 3pm, then snow with widespread blowing snow after 3pm. High near 25. Wind chill values between 5 and 10. Blustery, with a northeast wind 13 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Monday Night
Snow with widespread blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 19. Wind chill values between 5 and 10. Windy, with a north wind 22 to 27 mph increasing to 31 to 36 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 49 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches possible.

Tuesday
Snow with widespread blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 22. Wind chill values between 10 and 15. Windy, with a north wind 33 to 36 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible.

I have never seen a forecast as ridiculous as this one.
The house may be buried for days!!!

The entire state of Connecticut and Rhode Island are under blizzard warnings
24-36" in most areas here

Juno is thy name
Blizzard Warnings now up for all of Connecticut, all of Rhode Island, eastern Massachusetts, southeastern New Hampshire, and southeastern Maine in addition to northeastern New Jersey and southern New York.

Philly NWS new map. This is pretty bad.
How come nobody talks about that dry slot that always ruins a good storm
BLIZZARD WARNINGS now in effect from New York city all the way up the Northeastern coastline of Maine, right to the border of Canada. Powerful storm really looking likely. Now the question is who will get the heaviest snow? And where that heavy band sets up, will determine who got the brunt of Winter Storm Juno. Be safe and, prepare for the worst, and hope for the best.
Those of you up there in the NY area and surrounding how fast can you get that generator up and running thats been sitting in the garage or shed this past year? I'd suggest you find out now, do an oil change, and lay in a supply of gas. You're gonna need it!
Quoting 84. wxgeek723:

Philly NWS new map. This is pretty bad.

wow i saw 24 to 36 inches of snow in NJ
Taunton NWS warning of 80 mph wind gusts on Cape Cod.
They've really upped the totals



24 TO 36 INCHES HERE
URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
408 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

...LIFE THREATENING STORM FOR MARINERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 55 AND 70 KNOTS
ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 25 FEET OR HIGHER ACROSS OUR EASTERN
WATERS...


ANZ231>234-260515-
/O.UPG.KBOX.SR.W.0002.150127T0000Z-150128T0000Z/
/O.EXB.KBOX.HF.W.0001.150127T0000Z-150128T0000Z/
CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-
408 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO
7 PM EST TUESDAY...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
FORCE WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM
EST TUESDAY. THE STORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
65 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 64 KNOTS OR GREATER
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. ALL VESSELS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR
TAKE SHELTER AS SOON AS POSSIBLE...UNTIL THE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE.
NYC mayor just on and told, very calmly, that this may be one of the strongest storms to hit the city and the NE in NYC history. The preparations for the event are becoming serious. Could be a very dangerous situation for the entire area.
94. bwi
Backing off the snow totals for DC (compared with this morning's forecasts).
Quoting 94. bwi:

Backing off the snow totals for DC (compared with this morning's forecasts).



Too bad for us.
Thanks for the New Post Mr. Henson,
Quoting 93. Grothar:

NYC mayor just on and told, very calmly, that this may be one of the strongest storms to hit the city and the NE in NYC history. The preparations for the event are becoming serious. Could be a very dangerous situation for the entire area.
just spoke to a friend in Brooklyn. he says the stores are already a mess !
Quoting 34. TropicalAnalystwx13:




I'm surprised the blizzard of 1978 didn't make the list. I recall a couple feet of snow in northern NJ.
The problem for Maryland and NOVA right now is that we're currently just south of the frontal boundary so we're warm air advecting with winds from south from 925mb to the surface. On top of that layer, our 850's are subfreezing around -3C to -4C. It will take some wetbulbing and frontal passage before things become snow.
Quoting 99. PaulSweet:



I'm surprised the blizzard of 1978 didn't make the list. I recall a couple feet of snow in northern NJ.

NYC picked up 17.7" of snow during the Blizzard of 1978, so just outside that list.
Coastal Monmouth and Ocean counties NJ....holy cow. Records smashed if this verifies.

Quoting 84. wxgeek723:

Philly NWS new map. This is pretty bad.

Quoting 99. PaulSweet:



I'm surprised the blizzard of 1978 didn't make the list. I recall a couple feet of snow in northern NJ.


This list is for Central park, NYC.... and what 102 says...
Quoting 103. HaoleboySurfEC:

Coastal Monmouth and Ocean counties NJ....holy cow. Records smashed if this verifies.




Monmouth Beach here! Holy $/)t
Does anyone have any links to good northeast satellite images?
The only one I use on a regular basis is http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/imagery/eaus.html, but I would love to see this storms structure in better quality.
Updated snowfall map... tried to file in everyone in the right spot
As of 5:20 PM EST

EDITED
Quoting 107. MaxWeather:

Updated snowfall map... tried to file in everyone in the right spot
As of 5:20 PM EST




Looks good with good spatial continuity between contours.
Quoting 108. Drakoen:



Looks good with good spatial continuity between contours.

you must see the image full size
Latest NWS forecast:

#107 MaxWeather

typo - 'impossible'

? - why the peach?

Suggestion, background looks great, if the storm was centered on the mid-Atlantic. How about the Statue of Liberty, or something 'New Englandy'?

Lastly, LI is in the 24-36 range, the darker color makes it look less

Other than that, it is very eye-catching, an appealing visual
Quoting 107. MaxWeather:

Updated snowfall map... tried to file in everyone in the right spot
As of 5:20 PM EST



number keep going up!! now i see 40 inches of snow!! lets hope is not 50 inches of snow by the next update
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Latest NWS forecast:




seems like that is going up and up
Quoting 111. LAbonbon:

#107 MaxWeather

typo - 'impossible'

? - why the peach?

Suggestion, background looks great, if the storm was centered on the mid-Atlantic. How about the Statue of Liberty, or something 'New Englandy'?

Lastly, LI is in the 24-36 range, the darker color makes it look less

Other than that, it is very eye-catching, an appealing visual



Quoting 111. LAbonbon:

typo - 'impossible'

? - why the peach?

Suggestion, background looks great, if the storm was centered on the mid-Atlantic. How about the Statue of Liberty, or something 'New Englandy'?

Lastly, LI is in the 24-36 range, the darker color makes it look less

Other than that, it is very eye-catching, an appealing visual



Impossible - yes
Peach? Cause this graphic was done in the Peach State
Washington IS getting snow from this. I always pick a place anywhere inside the storm treat
24-36" ?? I did 40" to include any isolated higher amounts reaching such level... The shade contaminates the pinkish color yes but we can clearly tell the difference from violet
thanks
Quoting 112. hurricanes2018:


number keep going up!! now i see 40 inches of snow!! lets hope is not 50 inches of snow by the next update

NWS keeps upping the amounts.. I adjust mine accordingly
Quoting 106. HurrikanEB:

Does anyone have any links to good northeast satellite images?
The only one I use on a regular basis is http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/imagery/eaus.html, but I would love to see this storms structure in better quality.



You like this one (saved pic)? Source with more to select.


Same source.

Source. Really impressive already! Wish you guys luck. Don't get lost in x-feet snow!
Quoting 118. barbamz:


Source. Really impressive already! Wish you guys luck. Don't get lost in x-feet snow!


wow, lots of moisture with this monster
Been a bit breezy here in Baton Rouge. SW23 G32
i think it may be a good idea too closed all schools in the Blizzard Warning area


any word on school closer in the Blizzard Warning area i think there sould be no school on monday has weather will be going down hill in the AM hrs over there and buy PM things sould be a big mess
guys is it just me or is the energy coming farther south than what the models are showing ?
Looking forward to a good one in NYC.
Finally get rid of all of this heat built up in the pavement from last summer.
Quoting 105. mcluvincane:



Monmouth Beach here! Holy $/)t

Toms River here Holy Sh** is right!
125. beell
Quoting 85. parties:

How come nobody talks about that dry slot that always ruins a good storm


There will be a dry slot of sorts but most of it offshore. The dry slot in this case actually works in favor of heavy snow as the relatively warmer and moister air upglides around the northern and western sides of the upper low. Sometimes known as a TROWAL or "Trough of Warm Air Aloft" in an occluded system. The sharp boundary at the edge of the dry slot and the TROWAL is a favored location for heavy snow banding.
Quoting 119. mcluvincane:



wow, lots of moisture with this monster
Not a monster yet
Quoting opal92nwf:
It's dry here today, and the wind is really strong. Looked out my window just now to see a cloud of smoke blowing across in the distance. Sure enough, you can see it on the radar: probably a controlled burn on the Air Force Base range-land.

Windy up here too with a high gust of 23 mph so far. There must be a low forming north of us up in north Alabama. The barometer is down to 29.76 from 30.10 this morning. Strong WAA advection from the Gulf with south winds all day and a high of 66. Unfortunately for us (or maybe not so unfortunately, compared to the Northeast), we're going to be on the outside looking in. It looks like the low is going to scoot east pretty quickly tonight and the front won't be far behind. There just isn't enough energy for any precipitation to move this far south. It looks like there's a chance for maybe an inch of snow east of Huntsville but all we'll see is wind and high clouds. There will be several shortwaves rotating around the base of the huge low over the Northeast until at least Thursday but everything stays too far north to really affect us. We don't even cool off that much as we get some upper ridging on the backside of the low. I hit 28 this morning, 7 degrees cooler than forecast, but it looks like the lows for next week stay from just above freezing to the mid-40's. If this whole thing was only about 200 miles further south...dang.
Quoting weatherlover94:
guys is it just me or is the energy coming farther south than what the models are showing ?
Coming further south where exactly? It's not coming further south in Alabama.
according to the GFS the circulation is supposed to be in KY in about 6 hours It still appears to be moving ESE to me

Quoting 128. sar2401:

Coming further south where exactly? It's not coming further south in Alabama.
I have never seen a NWS forecast for over 30" in a megalopolis before.

Tornado in USA
Description
The National Weather Service confirmed a tornado touched down in Sarasota County Saturday around 3:30 a.m. WINK News has confirmed the tornado touched down in Myakka State Park. The tornado destroyed a camper, owned by Senior Forest Ranger Mike Corgnell. Corgnell told WINK News he was asleep when it hit. "We were in bed about 3:30, we could hear a lot of lightning...I started down the hallway I could feel the whole house starting to lift up and down. We heard a big crash outside and we waited a few minutes. We all huddled up in the living room and started peeking out windows and doors," said Corgnell. "We looked out, I thought everything was fine and my daughter says 'Dad where's the camper?'" The camper was lifted from its original position and thrown several yard away. Luckily, no one was in the camper at the time and there were no injuries. Andrew Mckaughan, a forecaster from the National Weather Service Office in Tampa surveyed the damage Saturday. He estimated the tornado's winds were between 70 and 100 miles per hour, making it an EF0 on the Ehanced Fujita Scale. At 3:51 a.m, the National Weather Service put out an alert that indicated a tornado near Warm Mineral Springs in Sarasota County. The area was placed under a Tornado Warning until 4:15 a.m.
Quoting weatherlover94:
guys is it just me or is the energy coming farther south than what the models are showing ?



its you
Quoting wxgeek723:
Philly NWS new map. This is pretty bad.


You're up in Rutgers, looks good for you Trent.
135. bwi
Quoting 101. Drakoen:

The problem for Maryland and NOVA right now is that we're currently just south of the frontal boundary so we're warm air advecting with winds from south from 925mb to the surface. On top of that layer, our 850's are subfreezing around -3C to -4C. It will take some wetbulbing and frontal passage before things become snow.

Oh well. I thought today was going to be way colder than it turned out, I was expecting a high in the low 40s, not over 50! Good day to be outside, I guess. Looks like the NWS is lowering totals even more in the local forecasts.
Quoting LAbonbon:
Been a bit breezy here in Baton Rouge. SW23 G32
I wonder why you're getting higher winds than me when the pressure gradient is at least theoretically steeper from me to the low and my pressure has already fallen further? Maybe you've got a better wind route up the Mississippi Valley than me sitting in the shadow of the Appalachians or something. I've noticed before that you seem to get consistently stronger winds from the same event than me. At least we won't have to try to figure out where the car went. The worst I ever saw back in my snow shoveling days in Cleveland was about two feet in March of 1960 over three days. We had drifts that were high enough I could hop out the second story window and slide down. No school but also no power and no heat for three days. If this turns out to be as bad as some predictions, some of the young folks up there that have been waiting to experience the Big One will find out why, when it's happening, it's really not as much fun as they may have thought. :-)
137. bwi
for 21z, HPC put the low at 1001mb in SE Illinois.
Quoting 133. Tazmanian:




its you


I was getting ready to post the same thing 😀
alright just wanted to confirm

Quoting 138. mcluvincane:



I was getting ready to post the same thing 😀


this low got a good spin to it!
What is it that the models are seeing here? The NWS has as their forecast NYC breaking their all time snow record by 5". What are the models 'seeing' that makes this storm so much greater than any other storm in recorded history for NYC? And has the NWS confident that the record will be smashed?

Records at NYC go back to 1869. An all-time record being broken doesn't happen very often. Much less smashed.
Quoting 142. BaltimoreBrian:

What is it that the models are seeing here? The NWS has as their forecast NYC breaking their all time snow record by 5". What are the models 'seeing' that makes this storm so much greater than any other storm in recorded history for NYC? And has the NWS confident that the record will be smashed?

Records at NYC go back to 1869. An all-time record being broken doesn't happen very often. Much less smashed.


Easy! It will move very slow!
bwi I had a very slushy inch earlier this week (in Federal Hill). What about you?

Here's the bufkit warehouse model graph. NWS forecast is dark green.



Like the 1888 blizzard that lasted 3 days.
Quoting 135. bwi:


Oh well. I thought today was going to be way colder than it turned out, I was expecting a high in the low 40s, not over 50! Good day to be outside, I guess. Looks like the NWS is lowering totals even more in the local forecasts.
I told ya'll this isn't our storm and if this winter is any indication of 2010-2011 its best to give up now.
Some forecasters were using that as a analog when talking about this winter.
147. beell

2 hr suface pressure change


12 hr 500 mb height change



I have to say that the clipper over the Ohio Valley looks better on satellite than any other clipper I can recall. Fairly deep pressure too.
Quoting 145. BaltimoreBrian:

Like the 1888 blizzard that lasted 3 days.


I've read about the 1888 storm, hope and pray it doesn't get that bad.
Quoting bwi:
for 21z, HPC put the low at 1001mb in SE Illinois.
Also looks like another low is forming in western Tennessee, and that must be the area that's pulling down my barometer. This should be the low that backbends the front but ends up moving offshore and bombs out as it move NNE. It's going to be a rough couple of days up north.
Quoting beell:

2 hr suface pressure change


12 hr 500 mb height change



Yep, just 200 miles further south and it would be a whole different ball game.
152. beell
Quoting 150. sar2401:

Also looks like another low is forming in western Tennessee, and that must be the area that's pulling down my barometer. This should be the low that backbends the front but ends up moving offshore and bombs out as it move NNE. It's going to be a rough couple of days up north.


RAP puts the developing low over KY/S IN. Same low pressure area that was over NE MO this morning. As posted, that surface map was valid at 21Z.
Quoting mcluvincane:


I've read about the 1888 storm, hope and pray it doesn't get that bad.


That's only the 3rd biggest in NYC, although you have to wonder how it would be measured today. The Hudson Valley had many reports of 40"-50" of snow.
Quoting mcluvincane:


I've read about the 1888 storm, hope and pray it doesn't get that bad.
If I'm not mistaken, the snowstorm in February 2006 had more snow than any other in NYC history. What's going to make this storm so bad is that it's going to have all the snow of the 2006 storm and about twice the wind. Even worse, it looks like winds will stay above gale force for at least 24 hours, maybe longer if the low stalls moving north. The combination of the snow and drifts is what will make it impossible for transportation, and all the snow plus the wind is inevitably going to take down a lot of power lines. I'm afraid that, by Tuesday morning, this is going to be way beyond fun weather talk.
155. beell
Quoting 142. BaltimoreBrian:

What is it that the models are seeing here? The NWS has as their forecast NYC breaking their all time snow record by 5". What are the models 'seeing' that makes this storm so much greater than any other storm in recorded history for NYC? And has the NWS confident that the record will be smashed?

Records at NYC go back to 1869. An all-time record being broken doesn't happen very often. Much less smashed.


Just as a note of caution, some talk about convective feedback in the models. If true, it may temper the totals a bit...but geez...probably not much.
Noaa radio in my area (06375) is saying we are going to see staggering amounts of snow. That's a first for me.
Quoting beell:


RAP puts the developing low over KY/S IN. Same low pressure area that was over NE MO this morning. As posted, that surface map was valid at 21Z.
If RAP has it right, it certainly appears that this low is going to be deeper than forecast given the winds and pressure drop all the way down here. This will be a good week to be living in the Deep South.
159. beell

Total Snow Accumulation-Valid 12Z Monday

Link

I have exceeded my hourly allotment of posts.
Nearby Weather Stations cooling down at 6:56pm jan 25 2015
Beacon Hill/Lake Saltonstall - Branford, Branford
32.0 °F
DopplerDon.com
31.8 °F
Rock Hill
31.0 °F
New Haven - Criscuolo Park
35.4 °F
Foxon
30.4 °F
East Haven Town Beach
33.3 °F
east haven morgan point
34.0 °F
Quoting weatherlover94:
according to the GFS the circulation is supposed to be in KY in about 6 hours It still appears to be moving ESE to me

The low has been forecast for the past two days to end up somewhere between far north Alabama and middle Tennessee by tomorrow morning before it starts to move east. The low is moving ESE but it doesn't appear it's going to get any further south than forecast.
Quoting 149. mcluvincane:



I've read about the 1888 storm, hope and pray it doesn't get that bad.


Yeah, the reported 30-50 ft drifts are the stuff of nightmares.
163. txjac
It's so hard for me to believe the upcoming snow totals ...I'm here in Houston sitting pretty at 65.5F
I remember the snow from the blizzard in 1978 ...I so miss the snow
My brother still lives in Ohio and thinks that I'm crazy.
Everyone please stay safe, hopefully all are prepared.
Will be jealously watching ...
22Z run of the Rap Model out to 18 hours..



18z & 12z GFS/Euro at same time of 18 hours





Thank you Mr. Henson.
RAP model looks much farther south...


nice looking spin right now for a low
Quoting 136. sar2401:

I wonder why you're getting higher winds than me when the pressure gradient is at least theoretically steeper from me to the low and my pressure has already fallen further? Maybe you've got a better wind route up the Mississippi Valley than me sitting in the shadow of the Appalachians or something. I've noticed before that you seem to get consistently stronger winds from the same event than me. At least we won't have to try to figure out where the car went. The worst I ever saw back in my snow shoveling days in Cleveland was about two feet in March of 1960 over three days. We had drifts that were high enough I could hop out the second story window and slide down. No school but also no power and no heat for three days. If this turns out to be as bad as some predictions, some of the young folks up there that have been waiting to experience the Big One will find out why, when it's happening, it's really not as much fun as they may have thought. :-)


Yes, but they'll have great fodder for storytelling, for decades to come....like we all have :P



wow up to 24 inches to 36 inches
Formerly Point Pleasant/Spring Lake Holy Cow$/)t! lol

Quoting 105. mcluvincane:



Monmouth Beach here! Holy $/)t
One needs Hip waders for some of the WHOPPER antidotal,er.."stories" from atop the Ala. Lazy Boy Mount.




Those are awesome! Thank you.

Quoting 117. barbamz:




You like this one (saved pic)? Source with more to select.


Same source.

You beat me to it. Looking like a dig toward SC. They just took any mention of precipitation out of my forecast. Possibly a bit premature.

Quoting 122. weatherlover94:

guys is it just me or is the energy coming farther south than what the models are showing ?
You know you've spent too much time flipping between websites and squinting at graphics when that vague 'internet headache' starts...I'm going off-line, to rest my eyes and synapses.

Hope all of you in the path of Mother Nature have plenty of time to prep - I'm guessing some of you still have to work in the morning. Hopefully the overlords will let you off the hook...

Thought this photo gallery of snowmen from yesterday's snow in CT was rather sweet. (from the Hartford Courant)

Good night and stay safe, everyone.
Latest runs for NAM and GFS @ 84 hours.






two snowfall maps here one tell you 24 to 36 inches and one tell you 12 to 18 inches something not right here.
35 year resident of NJ / Philly metro area (forecast for 14" - 24" tomorrow). 

Dear old friends on the Atlantic seaboard, here's the forecast for my neck of the woods for the upcoming week:

Monday 01/26  56 | 44
Tuesday 01/27  64 | 40
Wednesday 01/28  59 | 48
Thursday 01/29  68 | 48

Room rates are increasing quickly at Casa WXGB.  Book early.  And yeah, laugh at me the next time you razz me about living in FL.  There is a wanker surcharge, even with early booking rates.
Fix that comment!!
STORM WARNING

XX/XX/XX

(Click to enlarge) GFS Ensembles 18z diagramm (temps 850 hPA, 500 hPA, precipitation in mm) for New York City


Winds (km/h) and direction.

Source: Meteociel.fr.

-----------------------------------


The whole picture (click to enlarge).

Good night everyone!
Capital Weather Gang retweeted
Bob Henson @bhensonweather 2h 2 hours ago
If ever New York City needed an equivalent to Capital Weather Gang, it's now, right now, today.
Quoting LAbonbon:
Well, that happened fast. We went from a few scattered thunderstorms up north to a line of severe thunderstorms moving through Birmingham in about two hours. All the storms have fallen below severe limits now but there are other thunderstorms developing just to the NW of Montgomery and moving SE. There was supposed to be a near zero chance of rain this far south let alone severe thunderstorms. I'm not even going to try to guess what's going on.
00z DCA sounding shows some above freezing temperatures in the lowest 1km

Quoting barbamz:

(Click to enlarge) GFS Ensembles 18z diagramm (temps 850 hPA, 500 hPA, precipitation in mm) for New York City


Winds (km/h) and direction.

Source: Meteociel.fr.

Good night everyone!
GN, Barb. Thanks for all the updates as usual. I guess things in Germany look pretty good now compared to living in NYC over the next four days or so.
Quoting 186. sar2401:

Well, that happened fast. We went from a few scattered thunderstorms up north to a line of severe thunderstorms moving through Birmingham in about two hours. All the storms have fallen below severe limits now but there are other thunderstorms developing just to the NW of Montgomery and moving SE. There was supposed to be a near zero chance of rain this far south let alone severe thunderstorms. I'm not even going to try to guess what's going on.


going back to the roof looks like I got too do some adjusting on the atmospheric wave generation wave gun maybe needs a little tap with the hammer now where did I put that hammer brb
Quoting 186. sar2401:

..There was supposed to be a near zero chance of rain this far south let alone severe thunderstorms. I'm not even going to try to guess what's going on.

Not all the models expected nothing for you. May see more tomorrow..

Quoting Drakoen:
RAP model looks much farther south...
Something's happening to set off these thunderstorms in Alabama that weren't supposed to happen this far south. Looks to me like a prefrontal trough has developed where it wasn't predicted but I'm normally wrong.
192. 882MB
Quoting 175. LAbonbon:




Thanks for you and sar2401 for pointing that out, goes to show how dynamic this upper level system is, there's no significant moisture, or southerly wind flow to focus not only thunderstorms, but severe at that, these were probably elevated thunderstorms. Like sar2401 said "i am not even going to guess what's going on". I have a feeling this system will be more then a blizzard, truly a blockbuster storm, or like meteorologist like to say, a "Meteorological Bomb" is on the way. Everyone in the NE should truly take this serious as NYC mayor said earlier today. Like I said earlier, "Prepare for the worst, but hope for the best"
Quoting 166. Drakoen:

RAP model looks much farther south...


What does that mean for snow totals in NYC and Boston?


from http://www.accuweather.com/
Another look at KIAD with wet bulb temps included.

196. 882MB
Quoting 191. sar2401:

Something's happening to set off these thunderstorms in Alabama that weren't supposed to happen this far south. Looks to me like a prefrontal trough has developed where it wasn't predicted but I'm normally wrong.


You are not wrong, remember weather is unpredictable, like I said I think this will be a very potent system, hopefully not worse then what models are saying.
197. beell
Quoting 191. sar2401:

Something's happening to set off these thunderstorms in Alabama that weren't supposed to happen this far south. Looks to me like a prefrontal trough has developed where it wasn't predicted but I'm normally wrong.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
355 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS...A
CHANCE OF RAIN...AND ANOTHER CLOSE CALL WITH SOME WINTRY
WEATHER...TO CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS IT SWINGS THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE PROGS
INDICATE THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RATHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE...BELIEVE IT IS PRUDENT TO INCLUDE CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE VERY COLD CORE NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...AND SOME SURFACE WARMING THIS AFTERNOON...LAPSE RATES MAY
ACTUALLY BE SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFTS THAT COULD LEAD TO A (NON-
SEVERE) THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.


So a couple went briefly severe-but not unexpected at Birmingham.
Quoting 193. BaltimoreBrian:



What does that mean for snow totals in NYC and Boston?


If anything they would just see higher totals as the storm would be closer to to the coast.
Quoting Skyepony:

Not all the models expected nothing for you. May see more tomorrow..

There was a 10% chance of widely scattered showers from Birmingham south late tonight as of 12:01 pm CST. Going from that to a line of thunderstorms with embedded severe at the time of the first warning for Birmingham at 5:49 pm is quite a leap in probabilities.
Quoting 188. sar2401:

GN, Barb. Thanks for all the updates as usual. I guess things in Germany look pretty good now compared to living in NYC over the next four days or so.

Good night, Sar. Yeah, in the moment our winter weather isn't that exciting, but this may change mid week: Look, how temps in upper level regions (500 hPA) are going to crash on Thursday at my place (and of course in other parts of Europe, too). We may see thundersnow and what more ... It's going to be interesting.


Click to enlarge.



But now I'm really out, bye all ...
Quoting beell:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
355 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS...A
CHANCE OF RAIN...AND ANOTHER CLOSE CALL WITH SOME WINTRY
WEATHER...TO CENTRAL ALABAMA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AS IT SWINGS THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE PROGS
INDICATE THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RATHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE...BELIEVE IT IS PRUDENT TO INCLUDE CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE VERY COLD CORE NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...AND SOME SURFACE WARMING THIS AFTERNOON...LAPSE RATES MAY
ACTUALLY BE SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFTS THAT COULD LEAD TO A (NON-
SEVERE) THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.


So a couple went briefly severe-but not unexpected at Birmingham.

No, it was not expected. Across the north means north of Birmingham. I usually think the most recent discussion reflects the most recent thinking. If you think this discussion reflected a not unexpected line of thunderstorms, let alone that some of them would become severe at all than you and I read discussions a lot differently.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
257 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WARMED UP NICELY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. MOST LOCATIONS ARE IN THE 60S.

EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE BUT THAT POTENTIAL SEEMS PRETTY LOW AT THIS TIME.
I smell a March 6 2013 repeat..
Wxrisk.com
3 hrs ·
WHY I THINK THE 4-6" for DCA IS IN TROUBLE
First keep in mind that this is a tough call. NWS could end up being correct and I couldn't being 100% wrong. This is just my opinion it's not a fact i until it actually happens.
This image is from the 18z NAM which is a pretty good model for this time range. This particular image image is VALID for 3pm Monday afternoon. As you can see the surface temperature appears to be well above 32° the both the Baltimore and Washington. There are areas of light to moderate precipitation across the area. The precipitation over the Shenandoah Valley is probably snow given how temperatures there often a few degrees colder but this precipitous most likely rain or mixture rain snow across the Virginia Piedmont as it heads into Washington, DC and Baltimore. I
am not exactly sure how one gets 4 inches of snow or more with the temperature above 32° and this sort of LIGHT precipitation the area. By the time the cold air begins to move in the evening most the precipitation shutting off across Washington in Northern Virginia.
Quoting Drakoen:
Another look at KIAD with wet bulb temps included.

Everyone from Washington north, make sure you have those cell phones charged up. No, not so you can make phone calls, we want videos of the thundersnow. :-) Looks like a pretty good chance of some widespread thundersnow with this system, along with all the other impacts.
.....and in the meantime, the US Senate has voted 49-50 against a proposal to call man-made climate change a real thing.

Onward never, backward ever, or some such thing.

Boggles the mind.
Quoting 204. sar2401:

Everyone from Washington north, make sure you have those cell phones charged up. No, not so you can make phone calls, we want videos of the thundersnow. :-) Looks like a pretty good chance of some widespread thundersnow with this system, along with all the other impacts.


We won't be getting any snow here in DC..................

A current look at the 925mb temps and pressure contours

207. 882MB
Very dynamic and potent system. I just wonder where the heaviest bands or convergence occurs tomorrow night when this system is bombing out, somewhere of the mid Atlantic to northeast. Just look at it on water vapor over land, you can see the northern branch of the Jetstream screaming south through the Midwest, and the southern branch also screaming from Mexico through the gulf of Mexico to the Atlantic. Truly a epic storm in the making.

My amateur guess is that NYC will slightly underperform and be in the 18"-24" range and not set a record. I think 24"+ is more likely in Boston.
Quoting 208. BaltimoreBrian:

My amateur guess is that NYC will slightly underperform and be in the 18"-24" range and not set a record. I think 24"+ is more likely in Boston.
Quoting 208. BaltimoreBrian:

My amateur guess is that NYC will slightly underperform and be in the 18"-24" range and not set a record. I think 24"+ is more likely in Boston.


I like how in this case, underperforming is 18-24 inches. That says a lot on how potent this storm may be. It only takes a few miles on where the center is that can make such a difference. Very dynamic situation NYC and the rest of the NE will be in the next 36 to 40 hrs
211. bwi
Quoting Drakoen:


We won't be getting any snow here in DC..................

A current look at the 925mb temps and pressure contours

Well, you should at least stand a chance at some convection then, so that'll give you something to look at. I don't know though, this still all depends on where that low actually tracks, how deep it gets, and where the banding starts to set up. This system still has some surprises for us, I just don't want to guess where they will be.
Quoting 212. sar2401:

Well, you should at least stand a chance at some convection then, so that'll give you something to look at. I don't know though, this still all depends on where that low actually tracks, how deep it gets, and where the banding starts to set up. This system still has some surprises for us, I just don't want to guess where they will be.


I don't like the way that 00z skew-t looks. Even with wet-bulbing it's going to be hard to get an isothermal freezing layer in the lowest 1km. The front is also stuck just to our north.

40% on Monday, 20% on the others....
Quoting 207. 882MB:

Very dynamic and potent system. I just wonder where the heaviest bands or convergence occurs tomorrow night when this system is bombing out, somewhere of the mid Atlantic to northeast. Just look at it on water vapor over land, you can see the northern branch of the Jetstream screaming south through the Midwest, and the southern branch also screaming from Mexico through the gulf of Mexico to the Atlantic. Truly a epic storm in the making.




Absolutely. It looks the low's over the kentucky/tennessee border.
Quoting 208. BaltimoreBrian:

My amateur guess is that NYC will slightly underperform and be in the 18"-24" range and not set a record. I think 24"+ is more likely in Boston.
24 inches of snow from new haven to boston
Humm, I have a truck and snowplow for sale, think I should list it in Craigslist in the Northeast?
Quoting 212. sar2401:

Well, you should at least stand a chance at some convection then, so that'll give you something to look at. I don't know though, this still all depends on where that low actually tracks, how deep it gets, and where the banding starts to set up. This system still has some surprises for us, I just don't want to guess where they will be.


If pictures of a cold rain mixed with snow are okay with you.
Quoting 206. Drakoen:



We won't be getting any snow here in DC..................

A current look at the 925mb temps and pressure contours



Hopefully we have better luck over the coming two months. The winter storm across the Southeast, which the GFS was consistent for many days about, has not yet come back. I probably shouldn't have been suckered in to start with, but it's still depressing.
Quoting 213. Drakoen:



I don't like the way that 00z skew-t looks. Even with wet-bulbing it's going to be hard to get an isothermal freezing layer in the lowest 1km. The front is also stuck just to our north.


How about Baltimore?
I would say there's one to look forward to on Friday but knowing how this winter has been it'll be another rain storm or miss us.This is the winter of 2014-2015.Major snow is just not in the cards for this winter here.With our snowiest winters if nothing happened by December January for sure.But afterwards we start to see the pattern set in.

220. BaltimoreBrian
You will see snow.
Latest NAM featuring some dry slots and delayed convective development of the western side of the system as it passes the Benchmark. There are going to be some screw zones.
223. beell

2 hr suface pressure change


12 hr 500 mb height change


Quoting 220. BaltimoreBrian:



How about Baltimore?


You're close to a potential screw zone with the storm transitioning off the east coast. The dry slot that I was talking about. You would simply have to watch and see how this play out and where the bands set up. It's that precarious of a situation.
225. bwi
Still 45 degrees in the College Park MD area
Quoting 225. bwi:

Still 45 degrees in the College Park MD area


43 here in Silver Spring

Yep and we busted on the high forecasted today by a couple degrees, accordingly my enthusiasm has died down. We'll just have to monitor the situation as it develops.
227. bwi
I have a 17 mile bike commute. With 1-2"of fresh snow on the trails and in the bike lanes, it's absolutely awesome. With 33 degrees and breezy rain, not so much.
228. bwi
Still 48 at DCA, dang. Really didn't expect such warmth on the backside of a strong coastal storm the other day.
Looks like the Twitter hashtag for this event will be #blizzardof2015. Better luck next time, TWC.

Quoting 228. bwi:

Still 48 at DCA, dang. Really didn't expect such warmth on the backside of a strong coastal storm the other day.


Front still hasn't passed through the area.

NAM 00z says cut NWS forecast totals in half for NYC and NJ.
NYC: Damn we were so close
Quoting 226. Drakoen:



43 here in Silver Spring

Yep and we busted on the high forecasted today by a couple degrees, accordingly my enthusiasm has died down. We'll just have to monitor the situation as it develops.


42 here in Green Haven. -- How are things looking for us?
234. 882MB
Goodnight everyone, hopefully this don't end up being a super blockbuster Nor'easter, but for all the snow lovers, this Is for all of you, ''Do you want to build a snowman?" Well watch what you wish for, in case its a "snow monster" be safe and be prepared, night, night.
Quoting 231. Drakoen:

NAM 00z says cut NWS forecast totals in half for NYC and NJ.


The NAM sucks with precipitation rates!
Quoting 235. mcluvincane:



The NAM sucks with precipitation rates!


It's probably suffering from convective feedback issues. Let's see what the rest of the 00z suite says, although they too could suffer from those issues, the big wrench in the forecast.
Quoting 236. Drakoen:



It's probably suffering from convective feedback issues. Let's see what the rest of the 00z suite says, although they too could suffer from those issues, the big wrench in the forecast.


Agree!
r u telling me this is a bust before it starts
Link
Storm Alert Winter Storm Juno
Go to radar section for your area.
Quoting 231. Drakoen:

NAM 00z says cut NWS forecast totals in half for NYC and NJ.
I hope so.I'm jealous.
Quoting 231. Drakoen:

NAM 00z says cut NWS forecast totals in half for NYC and NJ.
wow
less snow for new york city now
Quoting 223. beell:


2 hr suface pressure change


12 hr 500 mb height change




Wow, you can see how the negative tilt is going to come about in the water vapor image.
Quoting 224. Drakoen:



You're close to a potential screw zone with the storm transitioning off the east coast. The dry slot that I was talking about. You would simply have to watch and see how this play out and where the bands set up. It's that precarious of a situation.


What are your odds that NYC breaks its snowstorm record? I think low, less than 20%


less snow for new york city because of the low on gfs its littie back to the east
Quoting 244. BaltimoreBrian:



What are your odds that NYC breaks its snowstorm record? I think low, less than 20%


Agree.
38F 10 mi north of Leesburg Va. Temp stated a gradual drop from 44 about 2 hours ago.
Quoting 231. Drakoen:

NAM 00z says cut NWS forecast totals in half for NYC and NJ.
nam going to cut the snowfall totals again my morning down to 6 inches or less in new york city..
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1006 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...THEN
TRANSITIONS TO A COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY
EVENING. THIS COASTAL LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN...BECOMING A
DANGEROUS WINTER STORM AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND STALLS SOUTHEAST OF MONTAUK POINT LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN WEAKENS AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. A WEAKER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS
AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT WITH POLAR HIGH
SLIDING INTO NEW ENGLAND IN WAKE OF A WEAKENING ARCTIC FRONTAL
PASSAGE. LOWS GENERALLY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS INTERIOR AND 20S
COAST. THESE LOWS MAY BE TOO COLD DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY HIGH
CLOUDS STREAM IN. TEMPS SHOULD STABILIZE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND INCREASING NE FLOW.

THEREAFTER...ALL EYES ON STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE SE US
TONIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN US TONIGHT...AND REACHING THE COAST BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS AT LEAST FAR SW PORTIONS OF THE TRI-
STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LIFE THREATENING...HISTORIC WINTER STORM EXPECTED FROM LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...

NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING THE INGREDIENTS TOGETHER FOR A
DANGEROUS...HISTORIC BLIZZARD AS A SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MON. THIS LOW WILL UNDERGO RAPID
INTENSIFICATION AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW CUTS OFF ALOFT NEAR THE
MID ATLANTIC MON NIGHT...STALLING SE OF MONTAUK LATE MON NIGHT
INTO TUE. MSLP DROPS NEARLY 30 MB IN 24 HR FROM MON AM TO TUE
AM... BEFORE GRADUALLY FILLING.

THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA ON THE NW FLANK OF THE
LOW. AFTER LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOWFALL OF 1-3 INCHES DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS MON IN ADVANCE OF THE SECONDARY LOW...A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF MDT-HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE.
FOLLOWED 12Z NAM/ECMWF CLOSELY...WITH BOTH MODELS SUPPORTING QPF
UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
NOW EXPECTED NOT ONLY ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND/CT BUT ALSO
FARTHER WEST INTO SW CT AND THE NYC METRO AREA/WESTERN LONG
ISLAND...AS MODELS OFTEN DO NOT PLACE THE AREA OF MOST INTENSE MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FAR ENOUGH WEST. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES
PER HOUR EXPECTED LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. MUCH OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE AMOUNTS OF 20-30 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER WHERE
BEST MESOSCALE SNOW BANDING SETS UP.

IN ADDITION...THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND HEAVY FALLING/BLOWING SNOW WILL
CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. A BLIZZARD
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS UP
TO 40 MPH ON LONG ISLAND...AND WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 40 MPH
INLAND...TO 50-55 MPH MOST ELSEWHERE...TO 65 MPH ACROSS EASTERN
LONG ISLAND...WHERE A BRIEF HURRICANE FORCE GUST CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

TEMPS DURING THE STORM WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT
FALLING TO 15-20 MON NIGHT INLAND. WIND CHILLS WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS...BUT AS LOW AS ZERO TO 5 BELOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN CT.
Quoting 250. hurricanes2018:

nam going to cut the snowfall totals again my morning down to 6 inches or less in new york city..


It very well may, even for your area. You may only get 1/2" or so
Quoting 238. parties:

r u telling me this is a bust before it starts

Nobody has even hinted at that.
Snow has begun to fall already at the Jersey shore! Ahead of schedule


its look like a hurricane!
Quoting 253. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Nobody has even hinted at that.
\
GFS 00z cutting down on totals as well. Half of what the NWS is forecasting. Of course, we can't verify a forecast with another forecast.
Quoting 229. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Looks like the Twitter hashtag for this event will be #blizzardof2015. Better luck next time, TWC.



But Juno is such an awesome name for this kind of storm. You can even use it in a sentence to poke fun at it, like "Juno that Boston is stockpiling sand and salt for the upcoming storm?" Even better use it in a sentence that way as a hashtag!
Quoting 256. Drakoen:

\
GFS 00z cutting down on totals as well. Half of what the NWS is forecasting. Of course, we can't verify a forecast with another forecast.
maybe going out to sea now
Quoting Drakoen:
\
GFS 00z cutting down on totals as well. Half of what the NWS is forecasting. Of course, we can't verify a forecast with another forecast.



i think the GFS is a out liner


GFS got only 100O LOW is more to the north and weak
GFS sucks..NAM and EURO Is where its at. Ppl dont be jealous we gunna get a lot snow here in ny tristate
263. vis0

Quoting 177. BaltimoreBrian:

Sunday reading

!!! Telomere extension turns back aging clock in cultured human cells, study finds

Climate affects development of human speech

* The latest fashion: Graphene edges can be tailor-made



Ocean could hold key to predicting recurring extreme winters

* Obama to propose protecting U.S. Arctic wildlife refuge from drilling


*** Cities may be leaking more heat-trapping methane than previously thought


Scientists Shoot Down Meteorite Theory in Antarctica Crater Mystery
     Think you had the story yesterday but in case:: Asteroid Scheduled to Pass Close to Earth on Monday, so that's whats causing the storm ; - p...wish me luck going out w/ portable ml-d set a bit higher once i'm outside of grounded buildings, hope i don't get ****** by ********* or an F0 ********** flings yellow snow my way.   Hope to post VID next wk of me practicing creating several whirl winds lasting 1+ mins to get reacquainted with portable ml-d settings.      
     Why "***" ...superstition.
     Just on pg 4, might not get to finish have to get plenty of sleep, for me that's ~4 hrs.









MUCH LESS SNOW FOR NEW YORK CITY THE STORM MOVING MORE NE THEN NNE WILL TAKE DOWN THE SNOWFALL FOR NEW YORK CITY AND MAYBE CONN TO.. the path of this storm is littie more to the east this be happern in the last few runs!!
Lol, looks like a few are calling for a bust forecast, isn't that usually the case


if you look at the GFS very heavy snow in conn to boston but much less snow in new york city!!
Quoting snowevent:
GFS sucks..NAM and EURO Is where its at. Ppl dont be jealous we gunna get a lot snow here in ny tristate


100% agreed
The GFS is a big out liner follow the Nam and eur
Quoting Tazmanian:



i think the GFS is a out liner
Hey Taz, what's up. Dude do you think I'm cool.
Do you remember back before the site rebranded, and we had the comments on the side when we could tell when someone committed. What happened to that.
Quoting 272. Andrebrooks:

Do you remember back before the site rebranded, and we had the comments on the side when we could tell when someone committed. What happened to that.
They got rid of it.Which I don't like that they did.Well to bef I go chow.
Quoting washingtonian115:
They got rid of it.Which I don't like that they did.Well to bef I go chow.
Ok thanks Wahi. You enjoy your meal I guess. Lol.
All the 00z runs tonight have been farther east with the system.
Quoting Drakoen:


If pictures of a cold rain mixed with snow are okay with you.
At least it's "weather", and you can hope for a little more wetbulbing than what the models are showing now. I'm too far south to have gotten any of the unusual thunderstorms that developed this afternoon and that's going to be pretty much it for me until Friday. Some cold rain mixed with snow would be quite something down here.

I've just read back over the recent posts and it seems like hurricane season model flipping depression has set in. It still seems like the dynamics are going to be there for a big time snowstorm over some of the most densely populated areas of the country. I don't know if it will turn out to be historic but, if that forecast never got started, this would still be quite a winter storm, something people have been waiting for since November. Since I don't have a dog in this fight, the whole evolution of this storm is going to be really interesting to watch regardless of how much snow finally comes out of it.
all the models have performed horribly this winter imo. my local nws are euro huggers and they jumped ship this winter and sided with the gfs. lol
Front is stuck just to our North. 42 degrees here.
Quoting 256. Drakoen:

\
GFS 00z cutting down on totals as well. Half of what the NWS is forecasting. Of course, we can't verify a forecast with another forecast.


Not verify, but at the very least we can corroborate it.
Quoting 279. KoritheMan:



Not verify, but at the very least we can corroborate it.


Corroborate? If 2 dozen CMC runs say that at 240 hours a Cat 5 will whack New Orleans, does it corroborate itself?
Quoting 280. Astrometeor:



Corroborate? If 2 dozen CMC runs say that at 240 hours a Cat 5 will whack New Orleans, does it corroborate itself?


No. I corroborate it. I'm all for waving my magic wand for Louisiana to get a hurricane, or at least somewhere close enough to make chasing an easy feat.
New York City and the Tri-State area will get a huge snowfall out of this. Don't be worried/fooled by the model runs wavering back and forth with each run.. A little bit east and "uh-oh.. Not much snow for NYC!" Then a little bit further back to the west and "OMG! NYC will be buried under three feet!"

In general, has it not been the Euro which has been consistently the best overall performer for all sorts of weather events in North America this year? And hasn't the NAM improved a lot, or so I have heard? Many media outlets still stick primarily to the GFS but it often misses important factors only to coincide with the Euro at the very last minute. TWC seems to be all-GFS all the time, for instance. But if you want near-record snowfall for the NYC metro area and coastal zones from central Jersey northward through Boston, I doubt that you will be disappointed. It may not add up to 36" for Central Park but even that is not out of the question. Let the outlier models do their thing and just relax and watch the show as it unfolds, is my advice, FWIW.
Yeah, that "chasing" luster goes away purty fast .

But yeah, chase away, bro.

: )

Chasing "Isaac" NOLA

Quoting 283. Patrap:

Yeah, that luster goes away purty fast .

But yeah, chase away, bro.

" )


I'm at the point where it's for the better that they miss me directly, but I can easily chase one that lands on the Gulf Coast. Money and actual storm opportunities are the problem though, lol.
Quoting 259. hurricanes2018:

maybe going out to sea now
We'll probably be singing that tune again during hurricane season. Also, the Euro is the more supreme model out of the two, but I still prefer the GFS during fickle and complex situations, just think back to TS Debby. Idk what it is though, maybe it is just me, but the GFS does tend to have a poleward and eastward bias, whereas the Euro tends to have a westward bias. I would just draw a line down the middle and get a consensus there. A lot of it could have to do with the differences in the spectral resolution, grid and line spacing between the 2 models. Other than that when in doubt go with human forecasting. Objective as a forecaster is to beat the model/mos guidance. I'll go with low center passing 75-125 miles east of Montaulk, NY. A 50 miles wiggle room/spread.
287. vis0
     Don't forget** the present 2 month trend ends in <2wks. And that during this 2 month trend as a LOW and even a strong front interacted with the ml-d inner most AOI how small LOWs formed off Cali's coast (other weather trends changed throughout the compasses 4 corners, but that i've posted on my blog, ml-d reset PAGE).
     Lets see what happens with the low over Baja, Ca. as the JUNO LOW passes by the ml-d inner most AOI... twice, as it enters from the SW & exits through the NNE or even ENE.
    
         **( i know i'm talking to 2 or 3 people, me & whomever has their compu'r freezes while trying to scroll quickly by any vis0 cmmnt)
i see predictions state 3in. to 3 feet ...that's just 'bout right...if yer throwing darts...nighty night...zzzzzzzzZZZZZZZZZZZZ
Quoting 286. GTstormChaserCaleb:

We'll probably be singing that tune again during hurricane season. Also, the Euro is the more supreme model out of the two, but I still prefer the GFS during fickle and complex situations, just think back to TS Debby. Idk what it is though, maybe it is just me, but the GFS does tend to have a poleward and eastward bias, whereas the Euro tends to have a westward bias. I would just draw a line down the middle and get a consensus there. A lot of it could have to do with the differences in the spectral resolution, grid and line spacing between the 2 models. Other than that when in doubt go with human forecasting. Objective as a forecaster is to beat the model/mos guidance. I'll go with low center passing 75-125 miles east of Montaulk, NY. A 50 miles wiggle room/spread.


Splitting the difference is almost always preferred unless you have a definitive reason not to.
In all seriousness, no. Forecasts can be corroborated via other forecasts. If we have five forecasts from different people each saying the same general thing, there's probably a reason for it.

Good forecasters don't use that as an excuse to get lazy with their own forecasts, though. We have standards. ;)
Yeah, good luck with dat, as we have Physics and Science to tell us we're all in deep doo-doo climate wise, but hey, we got U.S. Senators saying, is cool Bro, Drill and Burn, we have tons to learn.


When we hit 400ppm CO2 in a few months, no one alive today or then will NEVER see that number again.

Ever.

Another perspective using a 10:1 ratio.



Huge storm .....cold weather....you know what that means. ...just like el nino is dead. ..so is agw....yep..Mitchell was all a hoax
Thoughts?

Quoting 294. Astrometeor:

Thoughts?





Pretty blues
Quoting 278. Drakoen:

Front is stuck just to our North. 42 degrees here.
I thought you lived in Ohio.
Quoting 296. Tornado6042008X:

I thought you lived in Ohio.


I moved. I've never lived in Ohio but pretty close!
Quoting 297. Drakoen:



I moved. I've never lived in Ohio but pretty close!
Still 43F here Herndon/KIAD area with SE winds 6 mph.
Quoting 298. Tornado6042008X:

Still 43F here Herndon/KIAD area with SE winds 6 mph.


Once the starts transferring more energy to the coast that will allow the front to sink farther south.
Geaux Sneaux !!



I would feel better about it if we could get maybe an inch before dawn in Brooklyn.
Quoting 294. Astrometeor:

Thoughts?



(Post subject to sarcasm. Read at your own risk.)
Its looks like snow. 4-6 inches of it.
For central Pennsylvania... What else? Is it an optical illusion or something?

P.S. Hey Nathan :P
of snow
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 07-20142015
10:00 AM RET January 26 2015
========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 07R (1003 hPa) located at 16.5S 79.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west southwest at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
================
12 HRS 17.0S 78.1E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS 17.4S 77.7E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS 18.7S 78.7E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS 19.8S 80.4E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
===================
METEOSAT7 satellite imagery reveals an obvious improving cloud pattern within the last 24 hours and deep convective activity has consolidated near the center since 25/0930z.

0434z ASCAT swath shows maximum winds at 20 knots all around the circulation and winds up to 25 knots over the southern and northern sectors.

Environmental conditions are conductive for further intensification on Monday and Tuesday experiencing an efficient low levels inflows on the both sides, a weak to moderate vertical wind shear and a good divergence eastward under the upper level ridge. This low is expected to slowly shift west southwestwards under the steering influence of the low-mid levels subtropical ridge and to turn southwards then south eastwards towards a weakness in the subtropical belt.

On Wednesday, the gradual westerly vertical wind shear increase should limit the development.

Last ECMWF ensemble computes 90 percent probability to reach moderate tropical storm stage from Monday to Friday.

Another low should deepen more western within the monsoon trough during the next days and high levels respective influences one to the other one (induced vertical wind shear) remain difficult to qualify by that time.

Current intensity does not justify issuance of regular warnings.
At about midnight a friend from the Ney York area sent an unconfirmed report that they had about 24inches of snow in their area.

Meanwhile the weather forecasts for Britain as of the next few days are for a prolonged very cold spell into February.

Very pleasant chilly morning a 9 am here in southern Spain, we are expecting about 15/C today and no weather events at all but in the islands off Barcelona they had record 8.2 meter waves in the storms with 90 MPH winds. About 150 KPH.
Heavy rain in C FL this morning. Wasn't expecting this at all.


Headline on Foxnews this morning.

WHITEOUT: Northeast faces 'crippling', 'potentially historic' winter storm

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE has issued a blizzard warning for a 250-mile stretch of the Northeast Coast, including New York City and Boston, as forecasters say between 2 and 3 feet of snow could fall across an area between northern New Jersey and southern Maine.
NAM now back on with huge totals for the NYC area
Good morning.

From the New York NWS: They trimmed slightly the snow totals but not by much.Lean on ECMWF and NAM.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LIFE THREATENING...POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM EXPECTED
FROM LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY...

NWP GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A LITTLE MORE SPREAD THAN ONE WOULD LIKE TO
SEE AT SUCH A SHORT RANGE. MUCH OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE LOWERED QPF
AMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH WOULD MEAN LOWER SNOW
TOTALS. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT WITH ITS
PREVIOUS RUNS. IT DID LOWER QPF SLIGHTLY...BUT THE OVERALL EVOLUTION
OF THE SYSTEM REMAINED SIMILAR TO ITS 12Z RUN. DID NOT WANT TO MAKE
DRASTIC CHANGES TO THE EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS AND HEADLINES WITH
JUST ONE MODEL CYCLE. IN FACT...THE LATEST 06Z NAM HAS COME INTO
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF. THE 21Z AND 03Z SREF MEANS
REMAINED SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z NAM.

THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO BE A FAST NE OUTLIER. IT MAY ALSO BE
SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS THE SURFACE LOW FOLLOWS QPF
MAXIMUM OFFSHORE...AND DOES NOT SEEM TO GET FULLY CAPTURED BY THE
UPPER LOW.

STILL ANTICIPATE THE LOW TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THE
PARENT UPPER LOW CUTS OFF ALOFT NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT. THE LOW STALLS SE OF MONTAUK LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ON THE NW
FLANK OF THE LOW...IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE. THE MID LEVEL LOW
CENTERS AND INTENSE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL PROMOTE HEAVY
SNOW BANDS...BUT IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT THEIR LOCATION THIS
FAR OUT. MODELS ALSO HAVE A TENDENCY TO NOT SPREAD THE BEST LIFT
FAR ENOUGH NW IN INTENSE CYCLONES.

WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...DID LOWER SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY IN
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND WPC...BUT WE ARE STILL
EXPECTING AN OVERALL 18 TO 24 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER WHERE BEST
MESOSCALE SNOW BANDING SETS UP. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER
HOUR EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

IN ADDITION...THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND HEAVY FALLING/BLOWING SNOW WILL
CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. A BLIZZARD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS UP
TO 35 MPH ON LONG ISLAND...AND WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 40 MPH
INLAND...TO 45-50 MPH MOST ELSEWHERE. GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

WITH THE LOW NEARLY STALLING NEAR CAPE COD ON TUESDAY...LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN MESOSCALE
BANDS...ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

TEMPS DURING THE STORM WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT
FALLING TO 15-20 TONIGHT INLAND. WIND CHILLS WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS...BUT COULD GET CLOSE TO ZERO ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 20S.
GFS with another snowstorm in 168hrs for NE
Quoting 306. StormTrackerScott:

Heavy rain in C FL this morning. Wasn't expecting this at all.





I've gotten 0.08" so far this morning and still raining.
314. MahFL
Quoting 311. mcluvincane:

GFS with another snowstorm in 168hrs for NE


NY NWS mentions it :
"SUGGESTION OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SOMETIME LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK."
Quoting 312. tampabaymatt:


I've gotten 0.08" so far this morning and still raining.


.22 here. Tampa International last I looked was at .23. I didn't know it was supposed to rain today.

3.45" for January normal is 2.3"
good morning everyone the gfs model got the storm moving to fast
Blizzard Warning
Statement as of 3:29 AM EST on January 26, 2015
...Blizzard Warning remains in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to midnight EST Tuesday night...

* locations...New York City and surrounding immediate suburbs... Long Island...and most of southern Connecticut.

* Hazard types...heavy snow and blowing snow...with blizzard conditions.

* Accumulations...snow accumulation of 18 to 24 inches...with locally higher amounts possible. Snowfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour expected late tonight into Tuesday morning.

* Winds...north 20 to 30 mph with gusts 45 to 55 mph....strongest across eastern Long Island.

* Visibilities...one quarter mile or less at times.

* Temperatures...in the lower 20s.

* Timing...light snow will begin this morning...with accumulations of 1 to 3 inches possible by sunset. Snow will pick up in intensity Monday evening...with the heaviest snow and strongest winds from about midnight into Tuesday afternoon.

* Impacts...life-threatening conditions and extremely dangerous travel due to heavy snowfall and strong winds...with whiteout conditions. Many roads may become impassable. Strong winds may down power lines and tree limbs.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds and poor visibilities will lead to whiteout conditions...making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If you must travel... have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded...stay with your vehicle.

All unnecessary travel is discouraged beginning Monday afternoon...to allow people already on the Road to safely reach their destinations before the heavy snow begins...and to allow snow removal equipment to begin to clear roads.
Good morning all.



I AM READY!!!

Got my flashlight, my snow shovel, some canned food, a few bottles of single malt scotch, and a good woman.
Snowing here at Silver Spring with a temperature around 32 Degrees.
Good morning over there, especially in the northeast. Here a glimpse into history. I hope it won't be as bad!



A Buried City: The Blizzard of 1888
by Cole Thompson
In March of 1888 New York City was slammed by one of the most devastating blizzards in recorded history. From March 11th to 15ththe city was buried underneath a fifty-inch blanket of snow.
The Great White Hurricane, as it came to be known, disabled transportation and telegraph communication from the Chesapeake Bay to Montreal. Huge, "modern" cites suddenly found themselves cut off from the rest of the world. ...

- See more at: http://myinwood.net/a-buried-city-the-blizzard-of- 1888/#sthash.PdsD4XAW.dpuf

Photos From New York After the Blizzard Of 1888
is the earthcam network down for ever one this AM? seem like i cant get not one cam live this Am this wanting to no if this is happening too any one else
322. MahFL
Center of the storm entering South Carolina :

System looks much more moist than previously advertised.

Quoting 302. TylerStanfield:


(Post subject to sarcasm. Read at your own risk.)
Its looks like snow. 4-6 inches of it.
For central Pennsylvania... What else? Is it an optical illusion or something?

P.S. Hey Nathan :P


I dislike sarcasm at times like this.

I had been wondering about State College's forecast totals. Their advisory information had said, "3-5" through Sunday night into Monday morning, significant accumulations after."

Now the forecast only calls for around 3" (of additional snow) and we already have about 2" on the ground here.

Very disappointing, to say the least. It is the second time in three days, Saturday was supposed to be kinda nice as well.

Edit: I'm really exhausted, no sleep. Edited for errors.
Nearby Weather Stations cold for snow
Beacon Hill/Lake Saltonstall - Branford, Branford
19.3 °F
DopplerDon.com
19.4 °F
Rock Hill
18.8 °F
New Haven - Criscuolo Park
20.7 °F
Foxon
17.8 °F
East Haven Town Beach
20.2 °F
east haven morgan point
20.8


no more 24 to 36 inches!!! 18 to 24 inches now
Quoting 324. Astrometeor:



I dislike sarcasm at times like this.

I had been wondering about State College's forecast totals. Their advisory information had said, "3-5" through Sunday night into Monday morning, significant accumulations after."

Now the forecast only calls for around 3" (of additional snow) and we already have about 2" on the ground here.

Very disappointing, to say the least. It is the second time in three days, Saturday was supposed to be kinda nice as well.

Edit: I'm really exhausted, no sleep. Edited for errors.


Many college students make the mistake of not getting enough sleep. You will retain what you learned much better if you don't fall into this trap.

We've gone over to snow in DC metro. Not expecting much today, perhaps an inch and little road accumulation. Not nearly as bad as it looked two days ago. Tonight to me looks like a little more snow and a freeze up and a rough morning commute tomorrow.
Taken from Americanwx forum. This is the short range RAP model forecast show a snow maxima around the DC metro and its suburbs. Like I said yesterday, this is a nowcast situation.

Quoting 327. georgevandenberghe:



Many college students make the mistake of not getting enough sleep. You will retain what you learned much better if you don't fall into this trap.

We've gone over to snow in DC metro. Not expecting much today, perhaps an inch and little road accumulation. Not nearly as bad as it looked two days ago. Tonight to me looks like a little more snow and a freeze up and a rough morning commute tomorrow.


Did the same in high school. Just want to get this semester over with, none of my classes are particularly interesting. Off to class now.
10 miles north of Leesburg VA, 32 deg, wind NE at 10g17. Snowing pretty good, little icy flakes. Trace of snow since 4am.


i starting to see lightning
Quoting 331. hurricanes2018:



i starting to see lightning


The fact we had rain in a dry atmosphere here in C FL really means this storm is going to be charged up by the time it gets to you as the dynamics are very impressive with this system. I had some office chairs in the back of my truck last night to bring to work because i didn't think we would see any rain and then was awoken around 5:30am to heavy rain.
Temp 41F, light breeze, high thin wispy clouds and mainly clear currently in Columbia, SC. Looks like energy is starting to transfer off southern NC coast.

I think the critical piece of distinguishing this from just another potent Nor'easter is how much of a stall south of Montauk is experienced.

Should be interesting. There was a similar set up in the early 2000's (2000, 2001, 2002?) that did not play out. It was the blizzard that couldn't. Originally supposed to belt NJ/NYC with unbelievable snow totals and then move up coast similar to this storm. I believe only a small swath of interior MA got seriously pelted; a far cry from original forecasts.

Time will tell.

Quoting 322. MahFL:

Center of the storm entering South Carolina :


i starting to see a line of snow starting south of boston getting bigger
Many people make the mistake of not getting enough sleep. Sometimes it is unavoidable. I understand this all to well.

But for work, health, studying it is probably one of the most important things a person can do. We live in a burnout culture, but you can be more productive in fewer hours. IMO, don't buy into the corporate burnout mentality. It's a vicious cycle.

Strong correlation between weight gain and sleep loss as well.

Of course if you want to stay up all night blogging passionately about weather, well that's different...driven by passion.

Quoting 327. georgevandenberghe:



Many college students make the mistake of not getting enough sleep. You will retain what you learned much better if you don't fall into this trap.

We've gone over to snow in DC metro. Not expecting much today, perhaps an inch and little road accumulation. Not nearly as bad as it looked two days ago. Tonight to me looks like a little more snow and a freeze up and a rough morning commute tomorrow.


i see a line of snow south of boston
Interesting and detailed article

Blizzard to hit New England hard; NYC expecting 18 to 24 inches
Andrew Freedman, Mashable, UPDATED: 7:20 a.m. EST
A blizzard is on track to plaster areas from New Jersey to Maine with one to three feet or more of snow beginning Monday and reaching a peak on Tuesday.
Unlike forecasts on Sunday, southern New England is now expected to bear the brunt of the storm, with snowfall totals closer to 18 to 24 inches in New York City. This could be a top 10 storm in New York, but is less likely to be an all-time record event, based on computer model guidance from overnight on Sunday into Monday morning. ...
Less than two days ago, the weather forecast featured a chance of a few snow flurries from Monday into Wednesday. There was no mention of a historic blizzard. Not even a snowstorm.
Yet on Sunday afternoon, there was New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio warning residents of "one of the largest snowstorms in the history of this city," and officials up and down the coast echoing the same message in other cities.
So, what changed, and why is the forecast so dire? And are officials who are warning of a historic storm overdoing it? ...
The line just came through my area in Fort Myers. The wind gusted over 30 mph and it rained hard for about 2 minutes.
Picked up .04" here at the house.

I guess any rain is better than no rain.

Quoting 309. PensacolaDoug:

Great selfie Pat!
I thought it was Pressman up to his old tricks...
the lack of rain in sw florida is alittle alarming. surprisingly e cen fl never seen it so green for january.
341. MahFL
NWS NY still going with possible record snow:

"THIS BLIZZARD HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE THE LARGEST SINGLE-
STORM SNOWFALL IN NYC HISTORY. HERE ARE THE CURRENT TOP TEN
SNOWFALLS FOR THE CITY...".
Down to 31 degrees. Temps are colder than what was forecast.

The RAP 11z showed over 1 inch of precip into central MD...Not saying it will happen but if the Norlun Trough develops it is not out of the question.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
339 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

Valid 12Z Mon Jan 26 2015 - 12Z Wed Jan 28 2015

...A major winter storm to affect the Northeastern U.S. on
Monday/Tuesday...

...Very mild temperatures to continue over the central states...

...Wet weather expected across the Desert Southwest...


At this point in time, a clipper system is weakening over the Ohio Valley
and Central Appalachians which will eventually give way to a potent
coastal storm. A general region of 2 to 4 inches of snow should spread
over the much of the Mid-Atlantic region given the limited moisture and
decaying nature of the initial system. However, as the upper trough digs
across the Carolinas, it will attain a favorable orientation for rapid
strengthening. By Monday evening and into the overnight hours, coastal
cyclogenesis will commence east of the Delmarva with heavy precipitation
spreading north and west of the low track. Unlike the system this past
week which had limited access to cold air, a pronounced surface ridge to
the north will supply sufficient subfreezing air to the Northeastern U.S.
This will allow snow to be the dominant precipitation type with hefty
totals expected given the anomalous slug of moisture hitting the New
England coast. It appears many of the major metropolitan areas will be
affected anywhere from Philadelphia through New York City and into Boston.
The WPC winter weather desk expects anywhere from 18 to 24 inches of snow
from southeastern New York all the way along coastal New England. An
additional maxima is likely in the vicinity of eastern Massachusetts where
24 to 30 inches of snow is possible. Given the mesoscale nature of heavy
snow bands, isolated areas of even higher amounts cannot be ruled out.

As the surface low deepens rather markedly late Monday night, the pressure
gradient will increase resulting in very windy conditions across the
northeastern states. In particular, forecast wind gusts may easily reach
the 40 to 70 mile per hour range resulting in near-zero visibility given
the abundance of snow on the ground. This has resulted in blizzard
warnings being issued from southeastern New York/northeastern New Jersey
up the coastline to northeastern Maine.

Very warm temperatures for late January to prevail over the Central U.S.
Persistent downsloping flow in the lee of the Rockies will promote ample
warmth over the Northern Rockies and into much of the Great Plains.
Temperatures anomalies are expected to peak around the 25 to 30 degree
above normal range. This would suggest highs into the low 70s over the
Central Plains early this week.

Elsewhere, a secondary clipper system will affect the Upper Great Lakes on
Monday with only a few inches of snow expected given the weak nature of
the feature. Out West, an upper low initially anchoring the subtropical
East Pacific will lift northward spreading a broad axis of light to
moderate rainfall. Snow levels will be rather high keeping wintry
precipitation confined to the higher elevations of the Central Sierra
Nevada range.
Rubin-Oster
Quoting 340. islander101010:

the lack of rain in sw florida is alittle alarming. surprisingly e cen fl never seen it so green for january.


Water levels are higher than what we would see during the rainy season.

From my Florida Weather Blog

Good morning folks was awakened to a unexpected .22" of rain last night. Air was so dry on Sunday I thought no way we could get rain but that goes to show you just how strong these dynamics are that is feeding this system that is heading for New England.


Another storm system could effect FL either Sunday or Monday next week. Details on this though are still up in the air so stay tuned.

OZ Euro


Drought wise the state for the most part looks really good except S FL but there are sign that S FL will turn wet as we enter February onward.



Precip forecast going forward.

February


March
347. MahFL
Some indications of moisture levels increasing west of NY.



Quoting 320. barbamz:

Good morning over there, especially in the northeast. Here a glimpse into history. I hope it won't be as bad!



A Buried City: The Blizzard of 1888
by Cole Thompson
In March of 1888 New York City was slammed by one of the most devastating blizzards in recorded history. From March 11th to 15ththe city was buried underneath a fifty-inch blanket of snow.
The Great White Hurricane, as it came to be known, disabled transportation and telegraph communication from the Chesapeake Bay to Montreal. Huge, "modern" cites suddenly found themselves cut off from the rest of the world. ...

- See more at: http://myinwood.net/a-buried-city-the-blizzard-of- 1888/#sthash.PdsD4XAW.dpuf

Photos From New York After the Blizzard Of 1888

barbamz - thank you so much for linking Cole Thompson's article. I had never read the New York Herald's account of the storm. What an amazing find! One thing's for sure, we do not have journalism like that anymore. The level of detail, breadth of description, and illustrations are astounding for an article that was produced immediately on the heels of the storm.

Anyone interested in reading historical accounts of severe weather will appreciate this article. I'm bookmarking this one - it's definitely a keeper.

I had to look up a couple of terms...had no idea, for example, what 'Russian droskies' were...but I am stumped on one word:

"When a wheeled vehicle appeared it was dragged by teams proceeded by extra horses, upon which rude postilious were mounted."

The term 'postilious' - not familiar with it, and can't locate a definition. Anyone know?



PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
407 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

VALID 12Z MON JAN 26 2015 - 12Z THU JAN 29 2015

DAYS 1 TO 3...

...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC/NEW YORK/NEW ENGLAND...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST
FROM THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
AND WEAKENS WITH A NEW STORM FORMING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS NEW LOW INTENSIFIES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
IT HEADS TOWARDS THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK. THE ECMWF AND NAM SHOW A
LITTLE SLOWING MOTION WITH EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF LOOPING IN THIS
AREA BEFORE WEAKENING WED AND MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.

THE MODELS SHOW AN INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING TODAY IN
WESTERN PA
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS
TROUGH RESULTS IN A SWATH OF 4-6 INCHES NEAR THE MOUNTAINS NEAR
THE WV/MD BORDER INTO WESTERN PA TO NY BORDER.

THE LATEST MODELS THOUGH ARE INSISTING THAT THIS STORM WILL EVOLVE
INTO A HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM/BLIZZARD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...EASTERN NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS INCLUDES MAJOR METROPOLITAN
AREAS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM PHILADELPHIA THROUGH NEW YORK
CITY AND UP TO BOSTON. THE MODELS DEPICT A POWERFUL DEFORMATION
ZONE DEVELOPING AND SPREADING INLAND IN RESPONSE TO RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ARE EXPECTED TO SEE VERY INTENSE
SNOWFALL AS VERY STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...ATLANTIC MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS COMBINE FOR INTENSE SNOWFALL
RATES. ASIDE FROM THE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SCALE SET-UP...THE MOIST
ONSHORE EAST NORTHEAST FLOW FAVORS OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IN THE
TERRAIN OF WESTERN CT TO THE HILLS WEST OF BOSTON.

MESOSCALE BANDING FEATURES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE LARGER AREA OF
HEAVY SNOW TO RESULT IN LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS. THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO IMPACT MANY AREAS FROM NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND.

STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY FROM NEW YORK CITY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. SEVERAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE RUNS INDICATE
EASTERN MA AND RI AS HAVING THE HIGHEST TOTALS. THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE TRENDED A FEW INCHES LOWER ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE SNOW AREA ACROSS NORTHERN NY/NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.
351. MAstu
I'm about 15 miles south of Boston. I just moved here from North Carolina in April. I have no concept of what a blizzard is like. What can I expect? Is my roof going to collapse? Is my car going to be buried? Will I be stuck in my house without power for a week? Or will this just be a nuisance and the roads will be closed for a little while?
Quoting 348. LAbonbon:


I had to look up a couple of terms...had no idea, for example, what 'Russian droskies' were...but I am stumped on one word:

"When a wheeled vehicle appeared it was dragged by teams proceeded by extra horses, upon which rude postilious were mounted."

The term 'postilious' - not familiar with it, and can't locate a definition. Anyone know?







This rude man on the horse :-)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Postilion

BTW I found the article by watching the twitter feed :-)
Quoting 322. MahFL:

Center of the storm entering South Carolina :




The upper cyclone is, but the actual surface low is much farther north.
Thats what they make preparation for, weather events.

Maybe try your Local Emg Mgr's site.

Im sure they Have one in BOSTON.
355. MahFL
Ha, price gouging even in 1888, lol, :

"Many of the ten-cent lodging houses raised their price for a cot to fifty cents."

Outrageous !
The Free Market at werk.

"Murica"
Link
Quoting MAstu:
I'm about 15 miles south of Boston. I just moved here from North Carolina in April. I have no concept of what a blizzard is like. What can I expect? Is my roof going to collapse? Is my car going to be buried? Will I be stuck in my house without power for a week? Or will this just be a nuisance and the roads will be closed for a little while?
359. MahFL
Quoting 351. MAstu:

I'm about 15 miles south of Boston. I just moved here from North Carolina in April. I have no concept of what a blizzard is like. What can I expect? Is my roof going to collapse? Is my car going to be buried? Will I be stuck in my house without power for a week? Or will this just be a nuisance and the roads will be closed for a little while?

Your roof likely won't collapse.
Your car will be buried.
You might not have power for a few days, but you should be able to get out the house on Wed.
Quoting 359. MahFL:


Your roof likely won't collapse.
Your car will be buried.
You might not have power for a few days, but you should be able to get out the house on Wed.

by noon wed it will have passed
Quoting 351. MAstu:

I'm about 15 miles south of Boston. I just moved here from North Carolina in April. I have no concept of what a blizzard is like. What can I expect? Is my roof going to collapse? Is my car going to be buried? Will I be stuck in my house without power for a week? Or will this just be a nuisance and the roads will be closed for a little while?


Roof - don't know...is it a flat roof....if not, then unlikely
car-buried...likely...make sure you have a shovel handy
power-may lose it, but unlikely it would be for a week...that happens rarely there, usually w/ ice storms
roads closed-definitely
mass transit stopped - yes, temporarily

You need a radio, flashlight w/ batteries, food (ready to eat), water (if not on public water supply), and lots of blankets, if you don't have an alternative heat source like a woodstove or kerosene heater. Like Pat said, there is likely lots of guidance out there. But talk to your neighbors, as well, as this is likely not their first rodeo.

Good luck!

take photos :)
Warnings nova scotia

Hazardous winter conditions are expected.

A low pressure system will develop off the U.S. Seaboard today then intensify into a large winter storm as it moves slowly northeastward toward the Maritimes later tonight and Tuesday. Snow at times heavy will develop overnight or early Tuesday morning and spread northeastward during the day. Very strong northeast winds gusting to 90 km/h with even higher gusts possible along the Fundy and Atlantic coasts will give extensive blowing and drifting snow and near-zero visiblities on Tuesday. General snowfall amounts of 15 to 30 cm are expected. Over parts of Nova Scotia snow will mix with or change to ice pellets in the afternoon.

Consider postponing non-essential travel until conditions improve. Prepare for quickly changing and deteriorating travel conditions. Visibility will be suddenly reduced to near zero at times in heavy snow and blowing snow.

Winter Storm Warnings are issued when multiple types of severe winter weather are expected to occur together.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required. Stay up to date with Weatheradio or your local media. Email reports of severe weather to weatherASPC@ec.gc.ca or call 1-877-815-9900. You may tweet reports using the hashtag #NSStorm.
Been changing out things in my snow blog. Here was today's Youtube. Something to help the dogs get excited about the snow..

2 SIBERIAN HUSKIES TALK ABOUT THE SNOW!

Published on Jan 25, 2015
These huskies definitely love the snow!
I posted this yesterday. Pink colors are starting to show up in S. Florida for the first time this season.
Warnings new Brunswick

Hazardous winter conditions are expected.

A low pressure system will develop off the U.S. Seaboard today then intensify into a large winter storm as it moves slowly northeastward toward the Maritimes later tonight and Tuesday. Snow at times heavy will develop overnight or early Tuesday morning and spread northeastward during the day. Very strong northeast winds gusting to 90 km/h with even higher gusts possible along the Fundy and Atlantic coasts will give extensive blowing and drifting snow and near-zero visiblities on Tuesday. General snowfall amounts of 15 to 30 cm are expected. Over parts of Nova Scotia snow will mix with or change to ice pellets in the afternoon.

Consider postponing non-essential travel until conditions improve. Prepare for quickly changing and deteriorating travel conditions. Visibility will be suddenly reduced to near zero at times in heavy snow and blowing snow.

Winter Storm Warnings are issued when multiple types of severe winter weather are expected to occur together.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required. Stay up to date with Weatheradio or your local media. Email reports of severe weather to weatherASPC@ec.gc.ca or call 1-877-815-9900. You may tweet reports using the hashtag #NBStorm.
ATOM feed ATOM
Quoting 348. LAbonbon:
............
I had to look up a couple of terms...had no idea, for example, what 'Russian droskies' were...but I am stumped on one word:

"When a wheeled vehicle appeared it was dragged by teams proceeded by extra horses, upon which rude postilious were mounted."

The term 'postilious' - not familiar with it, and can't locate a definition. Anyone know?
I suspect it's a misprint for "postilions" - Link - it makes sense that there would be extra riders mounted on the extra teams in such conditions.

Added: and I would also guess that"rude" also has one of these meaning:
"4. Chiefly British Vigorous or robust: in rude health.
5. Archaic Lacking education or refinement: "They were so rude and ignorant ... that very little could be learned from them" (Samuel Johnson)."
GFS total snowfall @ 96 hours...




Total snow @ 240 hours...

Fort Myers was 13" below normal for 2014. Most of S. Florida needs over 9" of rain.
The 12z NAM unloads a 4' bullseye directly over NYC. Surely overdone, but wow. This is gonna be interesting.

Snow map
Surface low is deepening over Central NC now. We are seeing some convective shower development... heavy downpours between breaks with sunshine.
Quoting 356. Patrap:

The Free Market at werk.

"Murica"
.Did you have some java today. its "Merica"...geez whats goin on in Neau orlines these deyes...
storm prediction for 1 am tuseday morning earth wind model

Good Morning. Glad to see that all the major media outlets and authorities in the NE have the word out on the pending blizzard. Interesting, as noted by Dr. M yesterday, that the above-average SST's off the NE coast can contribute some additional punch/snow for this system. That baroclinic clash between the cold air aloft and the warmer air flowing in from the Atlantic is going to make for some very hefty snow totals. Living in Florida all my life, I can't imagine being snowed in for several days. Here are some current charts and satt shots:






Quoting 369. MAweatherboy1:

The 12z NAM unloads a 4' bullseye directly over NYC. Surely overdone, but wow. This is gonna be interesting.

Snow map
New Yorkers are quite reziliant to Mother Natures winter blasts , but I believe they may get more than anticipated..A shift to the east may lessen the severity. its wait and see.
Some even manage to squeeze Fla. into a winter blizzard post.


Egg-cellent'


Elev 548 ft 43.77 °N, 79.28 °W | Updated 11 sec ago


Scattered Clouds

Scattered Clouds


7.0 °F

Feels Like -7 °F








9.2

Wind from East
Gusts 17.4 mph
Good couple of days to keep the watch on the offshore bouys through the NDBC site (link below). Here are the current conditions off the coast of North Carolina; they should start to deteriorate up the seaboard into this evening after the low emerges off the coast:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/

Station 41025
NDBC
Location:
 35.006N 75.402W
Date: Mon, 26 Jan 2015 13:50:00 UTC
Winds: WNW (300°) at 11.7 kt gusting to 13.6 kt
Significant Wave Height: 3.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 9 sec
Mean Wave Direction: E (99°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.67 in and falling
Air Temperature: 57.7 F
Dew Point: 38.7 F
Water Temperature: 68.5 F
The LOW is off the Coast.



381. beell
Upglide on the 301K surface.
Pressure in blue, mixing ratio (call it moisture) in green. Note the sharp gradient in isohypes (blue lines) over the warned area. Very good ascent here over a very short distance into the snow growth zone.

FWIW, this is from the 06Z GFS @ 30 hrs-but they all look similar wrt setup.

the red circle is somewhat arbitrary-not exact

380. Patrap
9:33 AM EST on January 26, 2015

Sorry Sir; I need a few more cups of coffee this morning.....................
Quoting 373. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

storm prediction for 1 am tuseday morning earth wind model




A.K.A. the GFS.
misery index 1 am tuseday morning

Central Florida got hammered with heavy rain last night. Looks like Tampa was the big winner with .27"
I have no idea what the hell it's doing outside.Raining or snowing I can't tell.I'm not exactly sure whens the last time we had a whole week of sunny conditions.Seemed since September that we went a whole week without cloudy and dreary conditions.
No problem as the cyclogenesis is well under way.




Gonna be a whopper as the Upper energy infuses the Surface Storm, and that may do a pinwheeling whiffer-dill and stay around a tad longer than currently progged.

No sir required, I was a enlisted Man.

: )



Live updates: Crippling blizzard heads for New England
By Mashable Team, 12 minutes ago,
A snowstorm is making its way through New England on Monday. Follow along live as we cover its track.

Wow, I even get a live stream from TWC: Link
Quoting 368. Sfloridacat5:

Fort Myers was 13" below normal for 2014. Most of S. Florida needs over 9" of rain.



You guys have really missed out. All it will take is one good TD or TS in June to wipe out the deficit.
Quoting 368. Sfloridacat5:

Fort Myers was 13" below normal for 2014. Most of S. Florida needs over 9" of rain.



'Been crazy-dry in SE Cape Coral since September, with exception of an unexpected rain or two in mid-December. Woke up to hard rain this a.m.; it was over in 3 minutes, but intense enough to flood the bottom of the driveway for a bit. Definitely hoping that we seem some out-of-the-ordinary spring rains this year, or it's gonna be one heckuva long dry season for me!


here the low!!
Quoting 390. FBMinFL:



Better than puppies during a hurricane landfall, I suppose.





Most viewed Non Featured entry ever on wunderground,

Seems it stuck in yer Brain Housing Group too.

Thanks Bro'...


394. beell




395. MahFL
Quoting 380. Patrap:

The LOW is off the Coast.





Not quite, the low has not fully formed yet, that's just a representation of the lower pressures, there are 4 "L"'s on that chart.
well fake blog met is taking a shot maybe I should take a shot shut it down and up and out
NWS Sterling

AS THE CLIPPER LOW TRANSFERS TO THE COASTAL...A NORLUN TROUGH WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP
AND THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES AT THAT POINT
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE AND
FALLING SNOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE TRAVEL DISRUPTION THIS EVENING.
Whats that trail of energy out in the Midwest?.
Quoting 401. washingtonian115:

Whats that trail of energy out in the Midwest?.

Another weak clipper
Quoting 385. luvtogolf:

Central Florida got hammered with heavy rain last night. Looks like Tampa was the big winner with .27"


.15 on my PWS between 5 and 6 AM. Not much, but enough to give everything a soak.
Quoting 402. AGWcreationists:


Another weak clipper
the kicker

: )

I can count.,,,past 4

But thanx !
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
636 am EST Monday Jan 26 2015

Synopsis...
a Nor'easter develops off the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia coast this afternoon and
tracks slowly north tonight as it intensifies reaching just east of
Montauk Point by Tuesday night. The storm weakens as it moves east
to the Gulf of Maine on Wednesday. High pressure on Thursday is
followed by a clipper low passing across Thursday night into early
Friday. Cold high pressure builds in for the weekend.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
forecast on track this morning. Light snow/flurries being reported
across parts of NE New Jersey and NYC metropolitan. Light snow will expand in
coverage from south to north through the morning hours. Dew points
in the single digits across southern CT will likely prevent much
snow from falling here until middle/late afternoon with better lift.

Surface low pressure is currently located over the southern
Appalachians...and will move off the coast this morning and
develop into a Nor'easter.

Light snow is expected to develop this morning across at least SW
portions of the tri-state. This snow will slowly expand northward
throughout the day. Not expecting more than 1 to 3 inches with
this first wave of snow.

Temperatures will only be in the lower and middle 20s inland...to
the upper 20s and lower 30s closer to the coast.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Tuesday/...
a life threatening...potentially historic winter storm expected
from late today into Tuesday...

Nwp guidance has shown a little more spread than one would like to
see at such a short range. Much of the 00z guidance lowered quantitative precipitation forecast
amounts for much of the region...which would mean lower snow
totals. However...the 00z European model (ecmwf) remained very consistent with its
previous runs. It did lower quantitative precipitation forecast slightly...but the overall evolution
of the system remained similar to its 12z run. Did not want to make
drastic changes to the expected snow amounts and headlines with
just one model cycle. In fact...the latest 06z NAM has come into
closer agreement with the 00z European model (ecmwf). The 21z and 03z sref means
remained similar to the 00z European model (ecmwf) and 06z NAM.

The 00z GFS appears to be a fast NE outlier. It may also be
suffering from convective feedback as the surface low follows quantitative precipitation forecast
maximum offshore...and does not seem to get fully captured by the
upper low.

Still anticipate the low to undergo rapid intensification as the
parent upper low cuts off aloft near the middle Atlantic coast
tonight. The low stalls southeast of Montauk late tonight into Tuesday. A
prolonged period of moderate to heavy snow is expected on the northwest
flank of the low...in the deformation zone. The middle level low
centers and intense middle level frontogenesis will promote heavy
snow bands...but it is impossible to predict their location this
far out. Models also have a tendency to not spread the best lift
far enough northwest in intense cyclones.

With all of this in mind...did lower snow totals slightly in
collaboration with surrounding offices and wpc...but we are still
expecting an overall 18 to 24 inches...locally higher where best
mesoscale snow banding sets up. Snowfall rates of 2-4 inches per
hour expected late tonight into Tuesday morning.

In addition...the deep low pressure combined with strong high
pressure to the north and west and heavy falling/blowing snow will
create blizzard conditions across the entire region. A Blizzard
Warning remains in effect...with potential for sustained winds up
to 35 miles per hour on Long Island...and wind gusts ranging from 40 miles per hour
inland...to 45-50 miles per hour most elsewhere. Gusts up to 60 miles per hour cannot be
ruled out across far eastern Long Island.

With the low nearly stalling near Cape Cod on Tuesday...light to
occasionally moderate snow is possible in mesoscale
bands...especially late Tuesday morning into early afternoon.

Temperatures during the storm will generally be in the 20s...except
falling to 15-20 tonight inland. Wind chills will be mostly in
the single digits to middle teens...but could get close to zero across
southern CT. Temperatures on Tuesday will only be in the lower to
middle 20s.

&&
Power outages will occur, esp along the Coastal regions.

In addition...the deep low pressure combined with strong high
pressure to the north and west and heavy falling/blowing snow will
create blizzard conditions across the entire region. A Blizzard
Warning remains in effect...with potential for sustained winds up
to 35 miles per hour on Long Island...and wind gusts ranging from 40 miles per hour
inland...to 45-50 miles per hour most elsewhere. Gusts up to 60 miles per hour cannot be
ruled out across far eastern Long Island.
408. MahFL
In 12 hours the low will be fully formed offshore:



In 48 hours it's still there and of course deeper:



In 60 hours it's still around :

Quoting 402. AGWcreationists:


Another weak clipper
Thank you.



snow picking up south of new york city
Loving the short range models right now showing persistent banding over MD in the afternoon as the storm develops off shore. Good streamlines off Lake Ontario to enhance the moisture fetch. We can hope.
413. bwi
Nothing happening in downtown DC yet. Just a damp northeasterly wind.
This storm is reminding me a lot of Winter Storm Nemo (I know, I'm not a huge fan of the TWC naming system either, but they're useful for reference) in Feb. 2013. That one too had huge hype beforehand but with a lot of doubt about where the western edge would fall and whether NYC would get nailed. In the event, they got only around a foot, although Long Island and the whole state of Connecticut got crushed (40" near New Haven, and every county in the state saw areas with over 24"). Central/Eastern Mass, SE New Hampshire, and southern Maine were all also pretty consistently 24-30," with a few areas above, as is forecast with this storm.


The winds and surge were also similar with Nemo to what's predicted with this.

A few key differences so far as I can tell:
1) Nemo had higher QPFs—4-5" inches in some areas—but was warmer, so lower snow ratios; indeed, in Long Island and parts of Connecticut, it was rain, sleet, and hail for some early stages of the storm.
2) Related to that, the snow was wetter and heavier and so blizzard conditions were not as extreme as they might've been, despite the high winds.
3) Snowfall rates in Nemo were higher, indeed outright absurd (up to 8" an hour in a couple places), but duration was shorter, around 18 hours compared to the 30 expected with this one.
4) Forecasters seem to be expecting something of a secondary snow maximum in SE MA and RI with this storm, which we didn't have with Nemo. That area got 15-22", instead of the 24-30" currently being forecast with this one.

But it looks like a lot of uncertain variables still to resolve as the event begins to unfold.
Quoting 413. bwi:

Nothing happening in downtown DC yet. Just a damp northeasterly wind.
All I see is tiny itty bitty snow flakes.
Quoting 413. bwi:

Nothing happening in downtown DC yet. Just a damp northeasterly wind.


We have a coating of snow on grassy and wooden surfaces here in downtown Silver Spring. Snow redeveloping over the area.
Shoot. Check out the new NAM!
NYC is back in the bullseye, and more extreme than ever! Looks like the Euro may have been right to stick to its guns.


Compare to 12 hrs. ago:
And please let dat Guy know, HARRP was shut down 2 years ago too.

Facts matta greatly.
RTW New York City ‏@RTW_NYC 16m16 minutes ago

If you see a homeless person sleeping outside in this blizzard, call 311 and help them find shelter. @NYCDHS
Quoting 417. FlyingScotsman:

Shoot. Check out the new NAM!
NYC is back in the bullseye, and more extreme than ever! Looks like the Euro may have been right to stick to its guns.


Compare to 12 hrs. ago:

wow!!


update at 10am on January 26, 2015 watches and warning!!
is the earthcam network down for ever one this AM? seem like i cant get not one cam live this Am this wanting to no if this is happening too any one else
Quoting 403. Naga5000:



.15 on my PWS between 5 and 6 AM. Not much, but enough to give everything a soak.


.22 here, .19 at Orlando Executive, .16 over in Sanford but as you said not much but the rain was really heavy for about 5 minutes then the front came thru and temps are going back down. It just amazes me how some like to come on and troll the blog as no one mentioned the word hammered. This guy wonders why he has been kicked off so many blogs.
Quoting 412. Drakoen:

Loving the short range models right now showing persistent banding over MD in the afternoon as the storm develops off shore. Good streamlines off Lake Ontario to enhance the moisture fetch. We can hope.


Shot range models have been excellent lately. They have done a fantastic job with smaller scale systems that the GFS and Euro haven't been able to pick up on.
Quoting 416. Drakoen:



We have a coating of snow on grassy and wooden surfaces here in downtown Silver Spring. Snow redeveloping over the area.

Just a coating here in inner Philly burbs, roads are just wet. A lot of disappointed kiddos trudging off to school this morning.
Juno: Snowfall Forecast
Winter Storm Juno will transform from a clipper-type system, which brought a few inches of snow to the Midwest Sunday, into a major coastal storm late Monday into Tuesday as it intensifies rapidly just off the Atlantic coast.

The heaviest snowfall amounts from Juno are expected from far eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey to New England. Here is what can be expected in the Northeast:

Washington, D.C. could see some light snow accumulations late on Monday, but the heaviest amounts will likely stay to the north and west of the city.
More than 6 inches of snow could fall in the Philadelphia area, especially from the city east into southern New Jersey.
The New York City area could see a foot or more of heavy snow. Blizzard conditions are possible.
Parts of eastern and southern New England, including Boston, Providence, Rhode Island, and Portland, Maine, have the potential to see 2 feet of snow. Locally more than 2 feet of snow may fall, particularly in eastern Massachussetts. The snow will be accompanied by blizzard or near-blizzard conditions.
Snowfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour are not out of the question during the peak of the storm Monday night into Tuesday. Thunder and lightning could also accompany the heavy snow.
By MICHAEL E. YOUNG myoung@dallasnews.com
Staff Writer
Published: 24 January 2015 09:57 PM
Updated: 25 January 2015 12:09 AM
The Aussies say El Niño — the hoped-for rainmaker for drought-plagued North Texas — has mostly fizzled out in the Pacific Ocean.

That might be good news Down Under, but it’s not exactly what Texas water providers want to hear.

And the U.S. Climate Prediction Center’s latest seasonal drought forecast shows much less promise for improvements in Texas than it did a couple of months ago. Areas that expected to see the five-year drought ease or even end are now looking at continued or possibly worsening drought in the coming months.

Even with last week’s rains — more than an inch in many parts of North Texas — lake levels showed only the slightest improvements.

Basically, said David Finfrock, chief meteorologist at KXAS-TV (NBC5), any increases in lake levels probably came from the rain that actually fell over the lakes. There was precious little runoff to trickle into the region’s reservoirs.

“We’re well above average [in rainfall] for the first 22 days of the month,” Finfrock said, “so the soil moisture is great — I think we’ll have a good wildflower crop this spring.

“But we haven’t had torrential downpours with enough runoff to begin filling the lakes,” he said. “The native plants will do fine. But humans need water in the lakes.”

Drought forecast

The Climate Prediction Center’s drought forecast includes a wide swath of Texas, from Del Rio and the Big Bend up through San Antonio and Austin, through Dallas-Fort Worth to the Red River and the Panhandle. It also encompasses much of western Oklahoma, southern and western Kansas and eastern Colorado.

Much of the area from Dallas to the north and west into the Panhandle remains in extreme and exceptional drought, the two most severe designations, Finfrock said. It is the driest part of Texas, and the need for heavy, sustained rain is critical.

Typical rainfall in spring — normally the wettest part of the year in North Texas — would help.

But what the region really needs, Finfrock said, is a tropical depression or tropical storm.

“We haven’t had a good tropical storm through the central part of the state in years,” he said. “We really need that, or a lot of heavy rain. We’re not getting enough to put a dent in these lakes.

“We’re probably going to be seeing the water restrictions going back in quickly,” Finfrock said.

The water utility in the most precarious position is the North Texas Municipal Water District, which provides water to 1.6 million customers in the fast-growing suburbs north and east of Dallas.

Two of its major reservoirs — Lavon Lake and Jim Chapman Lake — are at less than 50 percent of capacity, with Chapman at 37.8 percent and Lavon at 48.5. Lake Texoma can provide up to 28 percent of the district’s water supply, but Texoma’s water is salty and needs to be mixed with “sweeter” water from the other lakes. With Chapman and Lavon so low, that limits the supply of mixing water.

Other districts have issues, too. Dallas Water Utilities uses five major reservoirs to supply Dallas and two dozen customer cities. None of its lakes is at more than 75 percent of capacity, and two — Grapevine and Tawakoni — are less than 60 percent full.

Some hope

Long-range forecasters find at least some hope for drought relief in El Niño.

Paul Pastelok, senior meteorologist and lead long-range forecaster at AccuWeather, maintained “we’re still in El Niño-like conditions” in North America, particularly with the split flow in the jet stream.

“We’ve been in the split flow, which is usually a sign of El Niño,” he said. And when the jet stream splits into a northern and southern branch, it allows more moist Pacific air to flow into the southwestern and southern U.S.

“When it’s a strong El Niño, the southern jet is dominant,” Pastelok said. “This year we’re getting kind of equal shares from north and south.”

And he thinks last week’s rainfall in Dallas-Fort Worth shows that.

“I just believe we’re seeing El Niño conditions even if officially it might never be an El Niño,” he said. That requires five three-month periods with warmer than normal water temperatures in the Pacific.

Still, Pastelok said, much of Texas hasn’t received the full flow of Pacific moisture this winter. And that could be a problem during what he expects to be a drier-than-normal spring.

“The southwest part of the state might do pretty well, and from Amarillo to the west in March and April,” Pastelok said. “But it doesn’t look real good for Dallas. It doesn’t look good for San Antonio or to the north of Dallas, especially the north.”

But late March and April could see a fresh surge of moisture from the Pacific and storms that might manage to hold together when they cross the Rockies, he said.

“I don’t want to say there won’t be any rain,” he said. “There is an opportunity there.

“You have a better chance where you are than in Wichita, Kan., or Omaha, Neb.”
Quoting 416. Drakoen:



We have a coating of snow on grassy and wooden surfaces here in downtown Silver Spring. Snow redeveloping over the area.


similar conditions in Green Haven/Pasadena MD
Quoting 423. Tazmanian:

is the earthcam network down for ever one this AM? seem like i cant get not one cam live this Am this wanting to no if this is happening too any one else


Working for me- checked a few sites just now
Quoting 425. StormTrackerScott:



Shot range models have been excellent lately. They have done a fantastic job with smaller scale systems that the GFS and Euro haven't been able to pick up on.



Yeah, the GFS and Euro have had uncertainties until about 12-24 hours out. Even early sunday morning the storm track kept shifting 50-60 miles, which is why the snow totals for NYC were lowered.
Quoting LAbonbon:


Working for me- checked a few sites just now


looks like they this got it back up and runing after being down
433. MahFL
Quoting 426. AGWcreationists:


Just a coating here in inner Philly burbs, roads are just wet. A lot of disappointed kiddos trudging off to school this morning.


No one said school closing snow was going to happen this am....silly kids.
Quoting 423. Tazmanian:

is the earthcam network down for ever one this AM? seem like i cant get not one cam live this Am this wanting to no if this is happening too any one else

Now I can get some of them, earlier not.
http://www.earthcam.com/usa/newyork/highline/?cam =highline

---------------------------------

Temps hit record high; enjoy it while you can
Another shirt-sleeve afternoon is coming Monday, after record-breaking temperatures in the 60s drew people out of their homes Sunday.
By Mike Lindblom, Seattle Times staff reporter, January 25, 2015 at 9:10 PM
The mood-altering warmth, combined with the lack of a Seahawks game on the tube, brought flocks to the parks, bike trails and beaches of Western Washington.
Highs reached 65 at Boeing Field and 63 at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport. That’s beyond the Sea-Tac record of 58 degrees for Jan. 25, set in 1986.
Monday’s weather will approach 60 degrees in Seattle, following record-breaking January warmth on Sunday. ...
Authorities are urging tri-state residents to work from home or leave the office early Monday ahead of a paralyzing blizzard expected to wallop the tri-state with more than 2 feet of snow, coastal flooding and heavy sustained winds.

Connecticut Gov. Dannell Malloy issued a travel ban for the entire state starting at 9 p.m. as he called the looming blizzard a "dangerous storm" and said it was "imperative to have a plan in place."
12z Skew-T sounding from KIAD was very encouraging. Shows that the lower levels have cooled below freezing which was my concern last night.

437. MahFL
Classic comma shape:

Quoting 417. FlyingScotsman:

Shoot. Check out the new NAM!
NYC is back in the bullseye, and more extreme than ever! Looks like the Euro may have been right to stick to its guns.


Compare to 12 hrs. ago:


And that's with a 10:1 snow ratio. Maps that use the Kuchera method indicate over 4ft of snow on Long Island.
East Haven, Connecticut 20 °F Light Snow at my house 10:38 AM EST on January 26, 2015
440. MahFL
Hm possible heavy snow ?......

Graham Ave. in Brooklyn is covered in snow in this photo from Jan. 3, 2014. A blizzard that could be worse than any snowfall the city since 2011 is threatening the city, with up to 3 feet expected between Monday and early Wednesday.


East Haven, Connecticut Light Snow at my house 10:38 AM EST
1/25 from yesterday.........................NEW YORK - Mayor Bill deBlasio said Sunday that a major winter storm could among the worst the city has ever seen.

"We are facing most likely one of the largest snow storms in the history of this city," said DeBlasio at a press conference. "Don't underestimate this storm."

The National Weather Service has a blizzard warning in effect for the New York and Boston areas starting Monday night. Forecasters say a massive storm could drop two to three feet of snow from northern New Jersey to southern Connecticut.

Boston is expected to get 18 to 24 inches of snow, and Philadelphia could see 14 to 18 inches.

"This will be the strongest storm of the year," National Weather Service meteorologist Brian Hurley told CBS New York. "This Nor'easter is going to produce a wide swath of snowfall."

De Blasio held up a piece of paper showing the city's top 10 snowstorms and said this one could land at the top of a list that goes back to 1872, including the 26.9 inches that fell in 2006.

"Don't underestimate this storm. Prepare for the worst," he said as he urged residents to plan to leave work early Monday.
445. beell
Houston, TX
Historically Normal.

Partly Cloudy
51°F
11°C
Humidity52%
Wind SpeedW 7 mph
Barometer30.27 in (1025.6 mb)
Dewpoint34°F (1°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Wind Chill48°F (9°C)
Last Update on 26 Jan 8:53 am CST
im wondering if..most working people stayed home or..went to work, if they did go, they should leave and try to get home asap.
Quoting 438. TropicalAnalystwx13:


And that's with a 10:1 snow ratio. Maps that use the Kuchera method indicate over 4ft of snow on Long Island.
the epic center
Heavier radar returns making there way through DC eastern suburbs expanding to the north and west. Look for this to develop into the afternoon hours. Bigger flakes coming down here.

from what i can tell from the cams new yourk has all ready pick up a dusting to 1" too 2" cant really tell


heavy snow south of new haven right now .. snow starting to pick up now if you live in new haven i have a bad feeling about this i think we are going to get two feet of snow or more!
Quoting 442. hurricanes2018:



East Haven, Connecticut Light Snow at my house 10:38 AM EST


I'm in Queens, NY right now, and we're looking at the same. In fact, within the past 5 minutes, the snowfall has really lightened up. Up until now, I'd call it a "dusting." If there's still light when I get home, I'll try to snap a few pics and post them to give an idea of what the storm is like on Long Island.
They had decided last night to keep the schools open on Long Island and NYC because the snow was not expected to really start falling until after 1:00 PM. It has been snowing all morning, and now they have decided to close the schools immediately. It won't be pretty sight on those roads.
Quoting LargoFl:
im wondering if..most working people stayed home or..went to work, if they did go, they should leave and try to get home asap.



As reported on TWC
Philadelphia - even though it's already snowing there, students are in school until 12:00pm. That I found surprising.
And Winter Storm Warning goes into effect at 12:00 in Phili.
454. MahFL
Quoting 449. Tazmanian:

from what i can tell from the cams new yourk has all ready pick up a dusting to 1" too 2" cant really tell


That was what was forecast, before the storm deepens over the sea :

"FCST OF 1-3 INCHES IS STILL ON TRACK".

After that 2 feet or more is possible.
I love those tracer wind maps, that show the flow of air at whatever altitude they are depicting. I notice some odd wobbles in the wind lines, that look like data artifacts, but they look like the same wobbles in the isobars. Is crinkle on the east side of the pressure system real or is it the same data source collection error, and one dataset is altering the graphics of the other?

Are global system pressures based on land stations, with goofy errors at sea, or are there global pressure networks and there really are funky front and ridge creases around this nor'easter.?
457. MahFL
Heavy snow could be over Long Island by as early as 2 pm, per NY NWS, I bet a lot of people will get caught out.
#410, I don't that last picture is what they meant by "light snow".
And now for the main event...

Quoting 437. MahFL:

Classic comma shape:


Quoting 457. MahFL:

Heavy snow could be over Long Island by as early as 2 pm, per NY NWS, I bet a lot of people will get caught out.


Ugh.. If I'm lucky I'll be on the roads by 2 PM.
TWC Winter Expert just said 12"-18" for New York City "with the bulk of the heaviest snowfall to the east of the city."
heed all local warnings
do not underestimate the power of the storm
this is a high/extreme impact event
Quoting 463. AGWcreationists:



I vote troll - Found that on a conspiracy moonbat site, beforeitsnews.com. As another poster noted, HAARP isn't even operational any more.


I'm surprised no one's posted a picture of the storm from day after tomorrow yet.
Quoting 451. LongIslandBeaches:



I'm in Queens, NY right now, and we're looking at the same. In fact, within the past 5 minutes, the snowfall has really lightened up. Up until now, I'd call it a "dusting." If there's still light when I get home , I'll try to snap a few pics and post them to give an idea of what the storm is like on Long Island.
Lol.I'm afraid by that time it'll be to late for you if you are caught out.Best to get home as early as possible to avoid the madness that I'm sure will ensure over the N.Y.C metropolitan area when the $#^% hits the fan.



look at all the heavy rain south of new haven its moving nne right at my house in a few hours its will be heavy snow maybe over 4 inches of snow a hour
Quoting 464. TimTheWxMan:



I'm surprised no one's posted a picture of the storm from day after tomorrow yet.
I was about to get to that.lol.
Snow is starting to accumulate pretty nicely just N.W. of Washington D.C. in Bethesda Md.

Elev 548 ft 43.77 °N, 79.28 °W | Updated 14 sec ago


Mostly Cloudy

Mostly Cloudy


12 °F

Feels Like 3 °F








10.7

Wind from ESE
Gusts 12.3 mph
Quoting 456. skycycle:



Second photo is from the Buffalo storm earlier this winter, why are you posting them together? And WTF is the third one, a shot from a movie? What ARE you trying to do, other than troll?


It's the illuminati maaaaan. "They" are using their weather manipulation machines to kill us all duuude. Better wear this hat so "they" can't read my thoughts. It's made out of tinfoil so "they" can't read my mind. Who's "they"? The conspiracy for global domination, DOOOOOM!

Ok, enough sarcasm for one day. :O)
Quoting 466. hurricanes2018:




look at all the heavy rain south of new haven its moving nne right at my house in a few hours its will be heavy snow maybe over 4 inches of snow a hour



The storm's already got a classic comma head. If only there was a severe weather side to it.
Quoting 467. washingtonian115:

I was about to get to that.lol.
but its the day after the next day wed morning 7 am great dig out begins
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Cantore is in Boston so this could get interesting to watch tonight.
Maybe we'll get to see him freak out when he hears thunder-snow.
Quoting 465. washingtonian115:

Lol.I'm afraid by that time it'll be to late for you if you are caught out.Best to get home as early as possible to avoid the madness that I'm sure will ensure over the N.Y.C metropolitan area when the $#^% hits the fan.


I can remember a major snowstorm last year that hit midday - and stupidly public offices and schools were all open. The commute home (one that takes 25 minutes without traffic and 45 minutes on a typical day) took 3 hours. Crawling along in 8 inch deep tire tracks at (without exaggeration) 3 mph was as mind-numbingly boring as it was strangely hypnotic.

That was the storm that NYC schools chancellor Carmen Farina famously said "It's beautiful out!" during a press conference, causing even the cognitively impaired to shudder in confusion.
Quoting 468. Sfloridacat5:

Snow is starting to accumulate pretty nicely just N.W. of Washington D.C. in Bethesda Md.
Snow is starting to accumulate here more moderately.
477. MahFL
Not far form being off shore:

I'll be broadcasting the storm live throughout!

https://new.livestream.com/accounts/11872924/Bost onSnowStormJanuary2015
479. vis0
     Not to be outdone anyone notice another "Le Ikodom" Niño  (Made an error last time and posted El ikodom), its an El Modoki Niño, but "backwards" as moisture flows from Wash. State SW to Northern Ca. of from Mexico To S, Ca.  In other words more of an East to West flow as a weeks or more ago as another LOW passed by NYC.
     i state with the present natural trend the ml-d influence occupies itself in "communicating" with the closer LOW and weather gets back to "normal" just outside the ml-d's outermost AOI.
     Check Brasil, Check Canada, Check mid ATL, (check, Waiter!) see if as the NE LOWs stays within the inner most ml-d AOI, how weather in those aforementioned areas switch as if its trying to connect to ENSO affects in the "normal" manner.   AS IT WAS a  ~week ago when ENSO areas (specially Eastern ENSO) was dropping the Niño like energy, yet ENSO Niño like activities blossomed, be it a small Lilly of a blossom.
     AGAIN THIS IS FOR THE PRESENT 2 month weather Trend ending in less than 2 weeks, what scenario will the ml-d influnce next, i don't know it could be the same but with different wind patterns or 1 of billions of other combinations.
     i also waiting to see what happens during the next "2WkAnom" period which begins as this 2 month trend ends in , 2weeks.
    
     ....ah its explained in hints (hints to me are meatier than clues, with 1 difference i don't take Qs) on my blogbyte "ml-d reset PAGE".  , INjoy  

(i expect someone to only quote the "i don't know" portion, HaHa, opps my bad LOL.

STAY SAFE, heed all the necessary needs as posted by by those-in-the-know WxU members.
Looked at the videos of people put up in the last hour playing in this snow, before it really comes down..

2d Idiots "ice skating"

first day of snow - fun with a rear wheel drive BMW

Pole Dance In The Snow : Winter Outdoor Swinging Pole

& Collies playing in the snow.
481. vis0

Quoting 419. Patrap:

And please let dat Guy know, HARRP was shut down 2 years ago too.

Facts matta greatly.
Facts matta, the "ml-d" which is what the military is now working on (what they'll call it who knows) can trump HARRP (when it was ON, now granny with a cane can 'cause its off or going private).

 Guess who has an ml-d ON since 2009/2010?

No, not Sany Clause
No, not Tinkerbell
a nut? YES!, one of its features is it can bend air (the "stronger/wider" the wind, i.e. LOW or Jet Stream the more the ml-d can "bend" it).
Notice how the jet stream (to some) is "broken" as it enters the USofA and Exits the USofA .INjoy