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Potentially catastrophic Super Typhoon Megi approaching the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:21 PM GMT on October 17, 2010

The world's strongest tropical cyclone of 2010 is Super Typhoon Megi, which intensified into an extremely dangerous Category 5 super typhoon with 180 mph winds this morning. We are fortunate to have a hurricane hunter aircraft in Megi, as part of the Interaction of Typhoon and Ocean Project (ITOP), which is studying how the ocean responds to typhoon growth and movement in the Western Pacific Ocean. As part of ITOP, a C-130 hurricane hunter aircraft was in Megi this morning, and measured some truly remarkable winds and pressures. At 8:09am EDT (12:09 UTC), the aircraft measured winds at flight level (8,000 feet) of 220 mph. The SFMR surface wind measurement instrument recorded surface winds of 186 mph in regions where heavy rain was not contaminating the measurement, but found surface winds of 199 mph in one region of heavy rain. Now, this measurement is considered contaminated by rain, but at very high wind speeds, the contamination effect is less important than at lower hurricane wind speeds, and it is possible than Megi's surface winds are close to a sustained 200 mph. This is supported by the flight level winds of 220 mph, which support surface winds of 199 mph, using the usual 10% reduction rule of thumb. The Hurricane Hunters measured a surface pressure of 893 mb at 12 UTC. This is a phenomenally low pressure, ranking Megi as the 20th strongest typhoon ever recorded in the Western Pacific. Only three Atlantic hurricane have been more intense than Megi--Wilma (2005) at 882 mb, Gilbert (1988) at 888 mb, and the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane, at 892 mb. Megi's intensity easily beats out 2010's other two Category 5 storms, March's Tropical Cyclone Ului in the South Pacific and the East Pacific's Hurricane Celia of June, which both peaked at 160 mph winds. It is still possible that Megi will intensify further, as wind shear is low, less than 10 knots, SSTs are very warm, and the ocean has a very high total heat content.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Megi taken by NASA's Terra satellite at 1am EDT Sunday October 17, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Megi is poised to deal a devastating blow to the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island early Monday morning. If the super typhoon's winds stay near 180 mph, the damage will be catastrophic in the regions where the eyewall makes landfall. The Philippines government is taking Megi very seriously, and has ordered evacuation of all low-lying regions in Megi's path. Equally dangerous will be Megi's torrential rains, which will likely be more than 12 inches over wide regions of northern Luzon, creating dangerous mudslides and life-threatening flash floods. Once Megi crosses Luzon, the storm is expected to re-intensify and hit the Chinese coast between Hainan Island and Hong Kong as a major typhoon on Friday. Storm chaser James Reynolds is in northeast Luzon, and will be shooting pictures and video that he will upload his website typhoonfury.com, and Twitter, @TyphoonFury.

Caribbean disturbance 99L
Heavy thunderstorm activity is currently limited over the southern Caribbean waters just north of Panama in association with a tropical disturbance (Invest 99L). Recent satellite imagery does show this disturbance has some rotation, and wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, which is low enough to allow some slow development. However, the disturbance is headed west at about 5 mph, and all of the major models predict the storm will move over Nicaragua by Tuesday, limiting any chance for development into a tropical depression.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

347
TCNA21 RJTD 180600
CCAA 18060 47644 MEGI(1013) 17171 11218 12424 270// 92615=


Dvorak: T7.0/OVERLAND
Quoting oddspeed:
mycam-asia.tv/philippines


Thanks for the link, this'll be good to see what's going on.
More than a 1000 stranded due to Typhoon Juan aka Megi

:::Several stranded passengers were also reported in the Batangas City Port Terminal (180 passengers); Puerto Real Port in Mindoro (33 passengers); and San Vicente Port Terminal in Sta. Ana, Isabela (51 passengers). The said 51 passenger onboard three passenger shipping vessels were the one rescued by PCG late evening of Sunday after it was hammered by rough sea condition few minutes after it left the said port terminal.:::

The eye came ashore at Isabela Monday around noon, so WTF was this captain thinking putting out to sea 18-20 hours ago?

:::Meanwhile, two casualties were already registered in Tuguegarao and Ilocos Sur due to drowning. Lt. Cmdr Balilo said that reports coming from the PCG Northern Luzon District informed them the a certain Vicente Decena, 33-yrs old of Barangay Mamabablan Norte in Tuguegarao City was drowned while securing his fishnet besides the Cagayan River. Search and retrieval efforts continue as of 1:30 p.m. to retrieve the body of Decena.

The PCG Northern Luzon District also reported a certain Joshua Duque Floreno of Barangay Waip Daya Galemuyod Iloco Sur also died due to drowning.

“Floreno was reportedly swimming along the coastal waters of Dapdap in Candon despite typhoon warnings not to swim during stormy weathers”, Balilo said.:::

No comment.
51 Passengers Brought to Safety in Sta. Ana, Cagayan the news from Sunday evening (last night local time)

:::According to Lieutenant Commander Armando Balilo, PCG Public Information Officer and deputy chief of staff for community relations that three vessels identified as M/V Eagle Ferry – 23 passengers; M/B GMA – 10 passengers; and M/B Babylyn – 18 passengers attempted to sail and left the San Vicente Port Terminal around 7 p.m. but few minutes later decided to return in the said port terminal due to rough sea conditions and strong winds cause by the said weather disturbance.:::
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #41
TYPHOON MEGI (T1013)
15:00 PM JST October 18 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Five Typhoon Overland Luzon (Philippines)

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Megi (910 hPa) located at 17.1N 121.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 110 knots with gusts of 155 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 14 knots

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
300 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
200 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.3N 118.4E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
48 HRS: 16.9N 116.5E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 18.0N 115.8E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Strong Typhoon)


south of southern China heading northward in the south china sea.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
south of southern China heading northward in the south china sea.


Do I paint the bullseye on my backside now or wait a few days?

HKO's Marine Forecast

:::BASHI= N TO NE 7-8, UP TO 11 IN E. DOWN TO 2000 M IN SCT SQUALLY SHOWERS AND TS. SEA 4-6 M, UP TO 10 M IN E. SWELL E TO NE 3-4 M. =
PRATAS= NE 7-8, UP TO 11 LATER. DOWN TO 2000 M IN SCT SQUALLY SHOWERS AND TS. SEA 4-6 M, UP TO 10 M LATER. SWELL E TO NE 3-4 M. =
BALINTANG= CYCLONIC 12, BEC S TO SE 10-11. DOWN TO 500 M IN FRQ HEAVY SQUALLY SHOWERS AND TS. SEA UP TO 14 M. SWELL NE 3-4 M. =
SCARBOROUGH= E TO NE 6-7, BEC CYCLONIC 12. DOWN TO 500 M IN FRQ HEAVY SQUALLY SHOWERS AND TS. SEA 3-3 M, UP TO 14 M LATER. SWELL NE 3-4 M. =
PARACEL= E 5-6, OCNL 7. DOWN TO 2000 M IN SCT SQUALLY SHOWERS AND TS. SEA 3 M. SWELL E TO NE 2-3 M. =:::

Sea Waves up to 14M w/ an additional 3-4M swell? wheee... I wanna go sailing in to that fer shure.
So Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau thinks I shouldn't wait to start painting...

This is the weirdest thing: the JMA said a tropical depression is forming... at 54N. Link
latest warning on Megi from JTWC

:::
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 121.3E.
TYPHOON (TY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MEGI HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED FROM SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE PEAKS OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAIN RANGE (AVERAGE ELEVATION 5,900 FEET) OF ISABELLA PROVINCE, LUZON. THE SYSTEM CAME ASHORE ROUND 0330Z NEAR DIVILACAN BAY AND HAS TRACKED SOUTH OF WEST WHILE WEAKENING. THE EYE HAS FILLED, BUT TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING IN MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE SHEDS FAIR CONFIDENCE ON THE LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY GIVEN THE LACK OF OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE PHILIPPINES.:::

::: THIS FORECAST LIES ON THE ECMWF SIDE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH TO DATE HAS PERFORMED THE BEST OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS. GFS AND WBAR REMAIN NORTHERN OUTLIERS, RESOLVING UNREALISTIC TRACKS.:::

JTWC along w/ ECMWF has Megi hitting much further west up the coast towards Hainan.
Quoting hurristat:
This is the weirdest thing: the JMA said a tropical depression is forming... at 54N. Link

yah, but it looks more like an asian nor'easter
Latest Weather article I published in the Ft Worth Weather Examiner
Special Report: 190 MPH Super-Typhoon Megi makes landfall in Luzon, Philippines Link

My weather article yesterday made the front page slide-show, thanks for reading my articles and I am now rated as the #4 Ft Worth Examiner.
DEVELOPING LOW 990 HPA
AT 54N 150E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING EAST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
400 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 54N 153E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 54N 161E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.

Developing Low is not necessary a forming tropical depression.
Looks like China will have their hands full later this week, will Megi!!
At least one person is dead in the far northern Philippines, where so-called "Super Typhoon" Megi crashed ashore with fierce winds and torrential rain around midday Monday. =/

Link
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
At least one person is dead in the far northern Philippines, where so-called "Super Typhoon" Megi crashed ashore with fierce winds and torrential rain around midday Monday. =/

Link

That one death is tragic, of course, but a low death count from this monster would be a miracle of preparation.

(FWIW, though, "Super Typhoon" is an official designation by the JTWC given to tropical cyclones with one-minute wind speeds of 130 knots or higher.)
Quoting Neapolitan:

(FWIW, though, "Super Typhoon" is an official designation by the JTWC given to tropical cyclones with one-minute wind speeds of 130 knots or higher.)


PAGASA though has no Super Typhoon designation and as you may have noticed, also has their own names for typhoons affecting the PI

And the 5pm HKT satellite photo has me a bit nervous about how fast Megi will regen once it's over the mountains.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #42
TYPHOON MEGI (T1013)
18:00 PM JST October 18 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon Overland Luzon (Philippines)

At 9:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Megi (930 hPa) located at 16.8N 121.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 14 knots

Dvorak Intensity:

Storm Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
300 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
200 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.1N 118.0E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
45 HRS: 16.9N 116.5E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Strong Typhoon)
69 HRS: 18.0N 115.8E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Strong Typhoon)
520. IKE
5 day QPF......



PAGASA

Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal

Signal No.3 (100-185 kph winds)

Luzon Region
------------

Cagayan
Isabela
Apayao
Kalinga
Ifugao
Quirino
Nueva Viscaya
Benguet
Mt. Province
Abra
Ilocos Sur
Ilocos Norte
La Union

Signal No. 2 (60-100 kph winds)

Luzon Region
------------

Batanes
Babuyan
Calayan Group
Pangasinan
Nueva Ecija
Aurora
Tarlac

Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds)

Luzon Region
------------

Zambales
Pampanga
Bataan
Bulacan
Rizal
Cavite
Laguna
Northern Quezon
Polillo Island
Batangas
Metro Manila
north of eastern cuba is that the leftovers of paula?
morning
ascat tuis morning is showing a weak low pressure area in the eastern atlantic near 11N 36W.there is moderate 850mb vorticity and shear is forecast to be conducive for slow development as the system moves slowly westward. although this area is not climatolgy favoured area this time of year, strange things have happened in the past. even if this system does not develop, it should bring adverse weather conditions to the central lesser antilles by this weakend. this area will be monitored.
Good morning, everyone.

My thoughts and prayers for those in the path of Megi. TWC has put her on a par with Katrina hitting the Phillipines.
Quoting islander101010:
north of eastern cuba is that the leftovers of paula?


The remnant low pressure area, yea.
From the BBC
"Authorities in China are reported to have evacuated more than 100,000 people from the anticipated path of the storm.
Associated Press reported huge waves and strong rains as well as powerful winds winds that brought down power lines.

"We are marooned inside our home. We cannot go out. The winds and rain are very strong. Many trees are being uprooted or snapped in half," Ernesto Macadangdang, of Burgos, Isabela, told local radio.

Officials have warned that the heavy rain and high winds could damage buildings, power supplies and agriculture, including the rice crop.

Government forecasters say waves off the east coast could be greater than 14m (46ft)."


WOW - those predicted highs are tsunami sized.
Another Manila Bulletin story update

Some of the same info as stories posted above, but also info on internet outages and a province wide power outage for Apayao.

Hoping that filming and communications issues are why no updates from typhoonfury since his live update on CNN about 6 and a half hours ago.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Good morning. Looks to me like 99L is trying to form further north than previously thought.
Quoting DaaiTouLaam:


PAGASA though has no Super Typhoon designation and as you may have noticed, also has their own names for typhoons affecting the PI


That doesn't matter. An official governmental agency has declared a storm within its area of responsibility as a "super typhoon", so it is. Oh, well. In much the same way, the Phillipines gave the storm the local designator "Juan", even though everyone else in the WNP refers to it as "Megi"...a fact which is all the more perplexing since the Philippines are a contributor to the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee that names WNP storms. (The Philippines contributed the name of the last named WNP cyclone, September's Malakas.)
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning. Looks to me like 99L is trying to form further north than previously thought.


Indded...as reflected in the latest NOAA TC probability chart:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image
this may be horrific if it comes into hong kong direct. the metropolitan-esque construction and tall buildings will be pounded, sending deadly flying objects from 30-50 stories high. pray for them.

also pray for all of those affected throughout the philippines at this point. i am sure live news will be very graphic in 1-2 days from now :(

if china needs emergency aid from america give your senators and representatives support in that effort, regardless what side you are on in these days. this typhoon is a deadly event.
534. IKE
Looking at the models the next 7-10 days, looks like the Atlantic season is in shut down mode. Stick a fork in it. She's about done.

Nicaragua...Honduras, looks like plenty of rain from 99L. Maybe Belize.

Looks like the first good chance of rain for the SE USA next week..about Tuesday and Wednesday...unless it changes. ECMWF shows it too....Link
Good Morning.
Megi is a real Beast!
Coastlines subjected to 40' waves along with storm-surge, and 190 mph winds will face some major destruction.
Really hope that people have been able to move out of the way of this....

A Glorious morning here at 11n 61w.

A Blob in the Atlantic, slowly coming this way, might bring the end to our 2 weeks of fine weather.
November is historically a high rainfall month, averaging over 12".
Had a strange little squall yesterday that broke some branches and dropped an inch of rain, but not a cloud in sight this morning.
Quoting IKE:
Looking at the models the next 7-10 days, looks like the Atlantic season is in shut down mode. Stick a fork in it. She's about done.

Nicaragua...Honduras, looks like plenty of rain from 99L. Maybe Belize.

Looks like the first good chance of rain for the SE USA next week..about Tuesday and Wednesday...unless it changes. ECMWF shows it too....Link


so your anticipating no development from the 10% wave on it's way from africa?
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:
this may be horrific if it comes into hong kong direct. the metropolitan-esque construction and tall buildings will be pounded, sending deadly flying objects from 30-50 stories high. pray for them.


Building codes here are designed for big typhoons. The ones that have become infamous are due to deaths in low lying areas due to storm surge. Hopefully some of the storm drainage work has made this less likely.

And much better in to Hong Kong than in to Hainan right now due to Hainan's continuing issues with flooding.
61 pleasant degrees this AM -- Nice way to begin Monday - No SAUNA while working at the barn - whew, I've waited for this.

thankful SurfGodfather is no longer in the Philippines -this Typhoon is quite scary --especially considering there is soo much poverty there... Megi is NoJUAN I'd want to meet.

Humm & I see that "disturb" -- trick or time again
Good Day to all - Swooooosh
Quoting DaaiTouLaam:


Building codes here are designed for big typhoons. The ones that have become infamous are due to deaths in low lying areas due to storm surge. Hopefully some of the storm drainage work has made this less likely.

And much better in to Hong Kong than in to Hainan right now due to Hainan's continuing issues with flooding.


it's good to hear some good news in regards to the unfolding events. i will pray for you all over there.
There is a short vid. clip at BBC News website, on Megi.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg


in that inner twist it appears in the loop that 99L may be beginning to drop pressure. near the northern nicaraguan coastline.

Link

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-jsl.html
Good Morning...
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Super "Duper" Typhoon Megi will be the strongest system ever recorded to make landfall.




Devastating storm, but the pressure went up a bit before landfall and wasn't lower than Camille by quite a bit.
I think 99l maybe be coming together a little quicker now.
Quoting gordydunnot:
I think 99l maybe be coming together a little quicker now.


i agree. look at the overall w.v. pattern around where it appears to be developing. i think venting has begun and the pressure is dropping

Link

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/mosaicmain.php?&basin=e%u220F=wvx


it appears as if it may be starting to incorporate the competitive low pressure that was setting up yesterday on the pacific side. it appears as if intake is now occurring over that area with no cyclonic development in the pacific region.
Quoting gordydunnot:
I think 99l maybe be coming together a little quicker now.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 18 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA IS
PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY INTERACTING
WITH LAND...AND DEVELOPMENT COULD BE INHIBITED FOR THAT REASON.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THIS PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS
NOT NORMALLY EXPECTED THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 18 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA IS
PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY INTERACTING
WITH LAND...AND DEVELOPMENT COULD BE INHIBITED FOR THAT REASON.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THIS PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS
NOT NORMALLY EXPECTED THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.





it appears that it may be forming further to the east. i agree that there is convection over the coastline but i think where the low may be turning into a vacuum there appears to be no interference with land.
550. 7544
morning all is 99l moving n nw at this hour and may stay off shore and if it does could we see it trying to organize better today as it seems to be gaining new convection ? tia .
i think we may be witnessing the beginning of r.i. with 99L.

notice the very top of the convection in this loop. it looks like venting may be setting up on the perimeter of the convection. i would expect a correlation of dropping pressure occurring now.
when you guys say reforming I want to know reforming to where please give me the lats &longs thanks
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:
i think we may be witnessing the beginning of r.i. with 99L.
did you mean RIP
Quoting IKE:
Looking at the models the next 7-10 days, looks like the Atlantic season is in shut down mode. Stick a fork in it. She's about done.

No doubt about that. Another six weeks on the calendar (with maybe a few thrown in after November 30), and no more than 4-6 storms left, and that'll be it for the 2010 season. But what an exciting season it's been, huh?

Notice the decently-high chance for TC formation in the NE Atlantic just to the east of the Azores? Satellite doesn't show anything spectacular in that area, but I find it interesting nonetheless...

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:

i think we may be witnessing the beginning of r.i. with 99L.

notice the very top of the convection in this loop. it looks like venting may be setting up on the perimeter of the convection. i would expect a correlation of dropping pressure now.



Link

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html
MMMMMMMMMMMMMM......... blog is quiet kind or erie calm before the storm , i dont see 99l becoming much of anything but a rainmaker too close to land and moving even closer, so r.i.p 99l
well not really kmanhurricaneman looks better than before so no R.I.P.
dang!!! i really was looking for some agreement even though i really know better, oh well!!! TD by 5 pm
kmanhurricaneman the downcaster that is his new title
heh heh heh i knew i would get that one, hoping nothing actually forms and heads our way Cayman cant take nothing right now, it is really sad how things are going here.
561. HCW
99L looks exactly like a Paula repeat unless it gets stuck east of Belize for a few days. West to east winds north of Cuba still look ridiculous. Even though there is every other reason for something to develop, this factor alone I think trumps all as in the first half of the season.
well the hurricane hunters are going to fly tomorrow afternoon into our invest

000NOUS42 KNHC 171330WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTSCARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.0930 AM EDT SUN 17 OCTOBER 2010SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z OCTOBER 2010 TCPOD NUMBER.....10-138I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR 13.5N AND 82.5W.II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
no ri possible without a closed llc,rapid organization is possible w/99l,but not likely...
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
kmanhurricaneman the downcaster that is his new title
so you are are our new wishcaster!!!
The downcasters are out in full force today!
gotta get ready for work c ya guys lata.
568. 7544
hwrf seems to like 99l will the others pick it up also today

Link
AL, 99, 2010101812, 151N, 825W, 25, 1010, LO
First daylight 99L RGB:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image


As the winds have increased to 25 knots, and as it appears the center of the low may miss or just brush the eastern tip of Honduras, I'd say TD19 is possible/likely today (though pressure is still a tad high at 1010mb). 15.1N / 82.5W.
you know the hwrf model wasnt far off with paula so i am paying a little more attention to that one.
hey WUNDERKIDCAYMAN listen just messing with you man i know different, blog was too quiet eh!!
Quoting gordydunnot:
99L looks exactly like a Paula repeat unless it gets stuck east of Belize for a few days. West to east winds north of Cuba still look ridiculous. Even though there is every other reason for something to develop, this factor alone I think trumps all as in the first half of the season.



you may want to see the wind shear tendency loop

Link

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html

in the past 48 hrs. it appears as if the large area of wind shear that has been supplying dry air and wind suppression in the GOM is now sliding east.
Invest 99L is getting his act together this morning.

I expect to see code "red" when I get home from school today (3:45).

If not, 50% orange.

99L up to 30 mph, but pressure is still high at 1010 mb.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Invest 99L is getting his act together this morning.

I expect to see code "red" when I get home from school today (3:45).

If not, 50% orange.
i do believe you nailed it son, i agree!.
Quoting Neapolitan:
First daylight 99L RGB:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image


As the winds have increased to 25 knots, and as it appears the center of the low may miss or just brush the eastern tip of Honduras, I'd say TD19 is possible/likely today (though pressure is still a tad high at 1010mb). 15.1N / 82.5W.


do you believe we could see an extended period of intensification today given the broad area of circulation setting up around the coc? if it forms a very large beginning eyewall it will have a ton of area to wind up tighter.

Station 42057
NDBC
Location: 16.834N 81.501W
Conditions as of:
Mon, 18 Oct 2010 11:50:00 UTC
Winds: ESE (120°) at 9.7 kt gusting to 9.7 kt
Significant Wave Height: 3.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.91 in and rising
Air Temperature: 79.7 F
Dew Point: 75.4 F
Water Temperature: 84.2 F
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:


do you believe we could see an extended period of intensification today given the broad area of circulation setting up around the coc? if it forms a very large beginning eyewall it will have a ton of area to wind up tighter.



Just like waves do not have eyes, waves do not have eyewalls.
. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA IS
PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY INTERACTING
WITH LAND...AND DEVELOPMENT COULD BE INHIBITED FOR THAT REASON.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH
.

Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:


do you believe we could see an extended period of intensification today given the broad area of circulation setting up around the coc? if it forms a very large beginning eyewall it will have a ton of area to wind up tighter.

...not possibl,as a general rule the larger the disturbance,the longer it should take to organize and vice versa...
99L may very well sneak up on FL. Very interesting as it's moving NW at 13. We need rain very bad in FL so I hope this will move in our direction as we need a good soaking.
The difference with 99L and Paula is 99L is quite a bit larger.
99L wrapping around fairly quickly. I could see this being named tomorrow, which would allow for Rapid Intensification with the favorable enviroment, something Pauld didn't have, and something that could turn "Richard" into our 10th hurricane, or stronger.



It definitely has the potential to become something scary.
9pm HKT marine warning up from Hong Kong Observatory
:::TAIWAN STRAIT= NE 8-9, UP TO 10 IN N. DOWN TO 4000 M IN ISOL SQUALLY SHOWERS AND TS. SEA 6-10 M. SWELL NE 3-4 M. =
BASHI= E TO NE 8-9, E TO SE 7-8 LATER. DOWN TO 500 M IN FRQ HEAVY SQUALLY SHOWERS AND TS. SEA 4-8 M. SWELL NE 3-4 M. =
PRATAS= NE 7-8, 9-10 LATER. DOWN TO 500 M IN FRQ HEAVY SQUALLY SHOWERS AND TS. SEA 4-10 M. SWELL NE 3-4 M. =
BALINTANG= E TO NE 10-11, E TO SE 10-11 LATER. DOWN TO 500 M IN FRQ HEAVY SQUALLY SHOWERS AND TS. SEA 10-12 M. SWELL NE 3-4 M. =
SCARBOROUGH= N 10-11, BEC CYCLONIC 12. DOWN TO 500 M IN FRQ HEAVY SQUALLY SHOWERS AND TS. SEA 10-14 M. SWELL NE 3-4 M. =:::

Waves at 10-14meters w. another 3-4m swells
I think the COC of 99l is a bit further South.
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think the COC of 99l is a bit further South.


Farther south than what? ATCF placed it at 15.1N/82.5W just 45 minutes ago...
A note from the crown weather discussion this morning.

In my opinion, I think there are too many factors working against development from this system and I think there is a better chance of no development from this system.

14.8 81.9

.any surface cente w/99l will soon move over the ne tip of hondurus,reminds me of paula,maybe a td sometime tomorrow if it doesnt continue west into hondurus and manages tto move nw....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Just like waves do not have eyes, waves do not have eyewalls.



lol misspoke, sorry for my ignorance. what i am trying to point out is it appears the inner portion of the invest has a much larger original pocket of low pressure, especially in comparison to paula. also, it appears that it is feeding off of the large monsoonal wave coming across the pacific side. when i looked at the vorticity maps in correlation with the drop in wind shear over the entire GOM and CONUS it just has the look to me that there is a very broad pocket of low pressure beginning to wind up in the center of this, and the feed off of the monsoonal wave appears to be feeding it energy without forming a competitive pacific system. sorry for the confusion from before.
Quoting divdog:
A note from the crown weather discussion this morning.

In my opinion, I think there are too many factors working against development from this system and I think there is a better chance of no development from this system.



There are two potential areas for development. Which one are you talking about?
Quoting divdog:
A note from the crown weather discussion this morning.

In my opinion, I think there are too many factors working against development from this system and I think there is a better chance of no development from this system.

Well, that's the NHC's take, as well: a 30% chance for development is a 70% chance against development. But considering that yesterday morning that ratio was just 10%-90%, those odds are improving, no?
VEry few if any models currently develop 99L strange tho...the one that does seems to have a pretty good hold on position also....HUM!

system has a look to it on visiable. probally develop into a large td hopefully it does not hang around that area of the world too long theyve already had more than their share of precip.
Quoting Jeff9641:
. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA IS
PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY INTERACTING
WITH LAND...AND DEVELOPMENT COULD BE INHIBITED FOR THAT REASON.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH
.



It's funny how a couple of folks quickly pointed out yesterday that the NHC removed the NW component to the discussion. Now today it is back on and the same people won't mention it.
Quoting islander101010:
system has a look to it on visiable. probally develop into a large td hopefully it does not hang around that area of the world too long theyve already had more than their share of precip.


agreed. i just get the feeling that a developing hurricane will not have the look it has to it now unless there is a lot of low pressure wrapped up in the middle of it. i think this may become a very large major hurricane by the likes of how it looks, the wind shear tendency showing favorable conditions, and the monsoonal wave of energy spinning up into the middle of this. this may be like looking at jupiter (richard) compared to pluto (paula) in overall size....well, not that much difference but you get the drift...
99L looks to be shifting to a more northerly direction
Quoting Neapolitan:

Well, that's the NHC's take, as well: a 30% chance for development is a 70% chance against development. But considering that yesterday morning that ratio was just 10%-90%, those odds are improving, no?
I am not sure what to think at this point. It certainly is gaining the look of a td. Crown's main argument was it's proximity to land and that it will eventually go into central america and die as a rainmaker. Shear in the 20 knot range is not helpful but is decreasing. very little 850mb vorticity. not quite sure what to make of it.
I don't see 99L developing at all. Just read where some has it becoming a TD and even a named storm soon. First of all Visible Sat. Loop shows the COC moving inland. Second there is 15-20kts of shear and the shear increases as it moves further North. Third it is weak steering but, what steering there is shows it should move inland and move WSW. Fourth there is NO Voritcity hardly at all at 850mb and Fifth there is little to NO Convergence or Divergence to speak of.

Conclussion: There is little chance less than 10% chance of 99L becoming anything over the next 48hrs. Unless 99L stalls which is possible in the very weak steering it has no chance of becoming anything but, a serious rainmaker.
Quoting Neapolitan:


Farther south than what? ATCF placed it at 15.1N/82.5W just 45 minutes ago...


I believe it's just south of just north of where it is.
Quoting divdog:
...very little 850mb vorticity. not quite sure what to make of it.


The SSEC vorticity charts haven't been updated since Saturday morning, so you can't go by those, if that's what you're using...
602. oracle28 1:34 PM GMT on October 18, 2010
Quoting Neapolitan:


Farther south than what? ATCF placed it at 15.1N/82.5W just 45 minutes ago...


I believe it's just south of just north of where it is.



I have 4 different interactive loops on my Website that shows 99L is further South and is about to move inland. Its under the Tab Tropical Storm Center. Go to my WU blog and follow the link to see if you like.
My bad on the Vorticity i did not relize the chart was old when i was looking at it. Thought it was strange with the rotation that was visible but, one never knows at what level you are seeing rotation tho.