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Postcards IV: Katrina's storm surge, and the Rita evacuation

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:03 PM GMT on May 01, 2008

I'm in Orlando this week for the 28th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, sponsored by the American Meteorological Society. The conference, held once every two years, brings together the world's experts on hurricane science. Two postcards from today's talks:

Hurricane Rita evacuation survey
The evacuation effort for Hurricane Rita as it approached the Texas/Louisiana coast was one of the largest evacuation efforts of all time. Rebecca Mouss of the National Center for Atmospheric Research reported on the results of a survey of 120 residents of Houston, Galveston, and Port Arthur, Texas that evacuated from Rita. Since Rita came so soon after Hurricane Katrina's record devastation, 55% of the people surveyed reported that Katrina influenced their decision to evacuate, and 10% said it was their primary reason for evacuating. For future storms, a majority of the people said they would evacuate if evacuation orders were given for a Category 3 hurricane, but not for a weaker storm. Five percent said they would not evacuate ever, even for a Category 5 hurricane.


Figure 1. Hurricane Rita bears down on the Texas/Louisiana coast.

Katrina's storm surge
Pat Fitzpatrick of Mississippi State University studied the effect of the levee system along the Mississippi River on Hurricane Katrina's storm surge. Katrina had the highest storm surge on record in the Atlantic--an astonishing 27.8 feet along the Mississippi coast. Fitzpatrick showed that the levees along the Mississippi River acted to dam up the storm surge along the east side of the Mississippi River, increasing the storm surge by 2-3 feet within 15 miles of the levees. Calculations from a storm surge model showed that inundation of Chalmette and the Ninth Ward of New Orleans was accelerated by 1-5 hours, thanks to the presence of the levees, with a higher surge of 3-7 feet. In contrast, the levees had little impact on the timing or height of the surge on the Mississippi coast. It is possible that, without the river levees, hard-hit Chalmette and the 9th Ward may have experienced significantly less flooding.

Fitzpatrick also modeled the effect of the loss of wetlands due to erosion on Katrina's storm surge. The general rule of thumb developed for work in the 1960's credited wetlands with reducing storm surge by one foot for every 2.7 miles the storm surge had to pass over a wetland. The SLOSH storm surge model found that wetlands in Louisiana were actually twice as effective in reducing storm surge--each three miles of wetland the surge passed over reduced Katrina's storm surge by two feet. Note that this effect varied with the depth of the surge--an eight foot high surge was knocked down about 13% by wetlands, while a one foot high surge was reduced 59%.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters...I evacuated Lafayette, Louisiana for Rita after losing my homes in Pass Christian, MS in Katrina...
Thanks for the update and information Dr. Masters.
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters
Thanks, Dr. Masters. It's good to see we're still studying the effects of those storms. Interesting information!

- ajcamsmom, uuuuuummm, seems like these storms were chasing you! Sorry, about the loss of your properties. I hope you're finding some normalcy now.
255. CaneAddict 9:11 PM GMT on May 01, 2008
244. moonlightcowboy 8:26 PM GMT on May 01, 2008
238. Ivansrvivr 3:05 PM CDT on May 01, 2008 Personally I think the warming will slow quite a bit from here on but if the warming doesnt hit the brakes soon, the whole picture changes.


If one were to go strictly by ENSO historical values alone, from cooling to neutral to late warming conditions, the seemingly more fitting years with those similarities are 1951, 1968, or possibly 1986, 1994 and 2004. Those season scenarios here

2004 out of those for years would seem like the most fittings, As the other 3 of those years were before the "Active Hurricane Period" began
CA, I'm aware of the active period, but thanks for the reminder. My post said, "If one were to go strictly by ENSO historical values alone..."

Oh alright, Nothing wrong with a good agrument ;)!

Also Nargis is now expected to landfall at Category Four strength....
4. moonlightcowboy 4:14 PM CDT on May 01, 2008
Thanks
Well if the GFS is right (and it wont be) then we will be set up for the Cape Verde season by May 17.LOL its showing 4knts of shear off of Africa in mid May!



Also take a look at the 6z..

Wetland Restoration is the Key.
And Im excited to See Dr. Masters showing the fact's about wetlands and surge reduction.

Restore the wetlands,and nature will help keep the surge energy from the population centers.

SLOSH animation Hurricane Georges ,98 Link
Dang, where did all those Indian Ocean/Western Pacific storms come from all of a sudden? It was just Nagris, now all of a sudden there are three more?
T.C. Nargis is Cat 3 aiming for Cat 4

Currently, winds are 125mph, gusting to 155mph.
Movement E at 12 mph.

Look out, Burma!
Dang, where did all those Indian Ocean/Western Pacific storms come from all of a sudden? It was just Nagris, now all of a sudden there are three more?

They're old storms. I don't know why they're back up. Probably a glitch.
NARGIS

Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC)
Version 1 Link
hope there ready for the season ahead down there doc
Hurricane king if you read my comment on the last blob you would have known that
VT do you know why the sudden intensification or Nargis
July 19, 2007
From Katrina Forward: Producing Better Storm Surge Forecasts
-- ADCIRC: The Next Generation Storm Surge Model

by Wendy E. Sera, Science & Technology Writer
Link

In 2004, FEMA, along with other federal and State of Louisiana entities, used ADCIRC to model how New Orleans might flood if a major hurricane, the "Big One" were to strike (FEMA, 2004). They developed a hypothetical hurricane named Pam -- modeled as a slow moving, Category 3 storm.

This simulation was devastating, and eerily prophetic, because it showed that the levees in the New Orleans area were simply too low to keep back the storm surge from a hurricane of even moderate strength. The model predicted that if a Category 3 storm or stronger approached New Orleans from the southeast, the storm surge would likely push into Lake Pontchartrain and up the Mississippi River. The levees around the lake and river would be overwhelmed and water would enter the city, filling it up like a bowl. The situation was even gloomier than the simulation showed because Pam was based on inaccurate elevations due to continual land subsidence; the ground is lower in many places by as much as two feet.

"When Katrina happened in 2005, there was suddenly lots of publicity about Hurricane Pam. Pam clearly showed that there was an impending catastrophe in New Orleans -- so, of course, journalists and others were asking, why wasn't something done then? Everyone, including the Army Corps of Engineers, the City of New Orleans, and the State of Louisiana, had egg on their face because this model was out there and they didn't pay attention to the results of the Hurricane Pam study," said Dawson.

The IMD need to kill their Kalpana Satellite reference for future cyclones.

T4.0 is what they are seeing which is only 65 knots.

They can't see the pinhole eye on the satellite that Nargis has/had this afternoon.
Hurricane Pam Exercise Concludes

Release Date: July 23, 2004

Release Number: R6-04-093 Link

BATON ROUGE, La. -- Hurricane Pam brought sustained winds of 120 mph, up to 20 inches of rain in parts of southeast Louisiana and storm surge that topped levees in the New Orleans area. More than one million residents evacuated and Hurricane Pam destroyed 500,000-600,000 buildings. Emergency officials from 50 parish, state, federal and volunteer organizations faced this scenario during a five-day exercise held this week at the State Emergency Operations Center in Baton Rouge.

"We made great progress this week in our preparedness efforts," said Ron Castleman, FEMA Regional Director. "Disaster response teams developed action plans in critical areas such as search and rescue, medical care, sheltering, temporary housing, school restoration and debris management. These plans are essential for quick response to a hurricane but will also help in other emergencies."
Good read, Pat. Gov't bureaucracy moves slower than a snail's pace! It's a shame, and it costs lives when folks are in harm's way. Of course, many are "still" trying to recover...and gov't, ever so, continues to lope along. Ridiculous.
Does anyone know in what part of Burma Chevron Oil has its platforms?

I wonder if T.C. Nargis will disrupt production.

I was very sad to read this today about Chevron in Burma:
http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/050108C.shtml
Thailand Meteorological Department
12:00 PM UTC May 1 2008

"Tropical Cyclone" Nargis 01B
15.9N 90.4E - 75 knots 960 hPa (10 min avg)

Cyclone is reported moving east-northeast
Send Your Name to the Moon Aboard LRO!

NASA/GSFC NASA invites people of all ages to join the lunar exploration journey with an opportunity to send their names to the moon aboard the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, or LRO, spacecraft. Link
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number Thirty-One
18:00 PM UTC May 1, 2008


At 18:00 PM UTC, The Very Severe Tropical Cyclone Nargis [980 hPa] over east central Bay of Bengal moved eastward and lays near 16.0N 91.5E or 400 kms southwest of Sandoway (Mynamar).

Current Dvorak Intensity is T4.0. Maximume 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 75 knots with an estimated central pressure of 980 hPa.

Sea condition is phenomenal around the system's center. Satellite imagery shows broken to solid intense to very intense convective clouds between 11.0 to 18.5N and 88.0 to 93.5E in association with the system.

FORECAST: THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS MYANMAR COAST AROUND 17.0N BY 1200 AND 1800 UTC ON MAY 2ND. FORECAST INTENSITY AT 021500 UTC IS T5.0.
good evening all


Pat, we can see who's been getting the precip. I'm guessing the MS River will be seeing this run-off for some time to come yet. Levels have peaked and likely to remain that way throughout our cane season. Can only hope that nothing, really nothing, comes back in NOLA's direction.
The river Crested here Saturday and a slow fall has begun. The Spillway has closed about 15% of the Opened gates..and should close completely in about 3 weeks.
latest SOHO MDI image...solar minimum still in full force:

Link
- Pearland, thanks for posting that. I forget to look at that more frequently.
here's the small photo, for those interested. click the photo in the link provided to see a really cool, large shot of the sun....



BTW MLC, YMW! :)
man, the Rita evacuation SUCKED! it was like a warzone, with total lack of order and seriously reduced civility (one could argue this is normal for Houston traffic). however, when faced with the prospect of another Cat5, we would do it again and LEAVE EARLIER!
Pearland, yeah, that evac looked and sounded awful.
no food, no water, no gasoline, no bread, no traffic movement. idiots passing in the culverts to the right and in the median. motorhomes on fire. abandoned cars everywhere. cars overheating and running out of fuel due to lack of movement. no hotel rooms for 400 miles.

I never thought I would see that kind of chaos in the United States of America in my lifetime! I can't even imagine the chaos those poor New Yorkers endured on 9/11.
I know, Pearland. No way to comprehend that, really, unless we were there. But, yeah, that evac sure sounded bad. Patrap and Hurricanecrab have really good blogs on preparedness. Crab's even got a kind of "point system" set up to self-determine one's level of preparedness. I've got some work to do on mine. I always have and keep water; but, I was surprised at how much he sugguests to have on hand - and when you read it and think about it, makes great sense.
I pray that we do not have another season even CLOSE to 2004 or 2005. Many of these areas STILL have blue tarps for roofs. Another 1 or 2 majors hitting the Gulf Coast this year would be devastating beyond words.
Hey, Nash. So, true!
38. nash28 11:34 PM GMT on May 01, 2008
I pray that we do not have another season even CLOSE to 2004 or 2005. Many of these areas STILL have blue tarps for roofs. Another 1 or 2 majors hitting the Gulf Coast this year would be devastating beyond words.


Hey Nash! I hope you check out my blog!
Well, for the 2008 season, the Nash family has judiciously decided that we are NOT stocking up on plywood, nails, etc.... We are renting this house... This would be the final straw should Tampa finally break the 80 year drought and be whacked head on... We decided, if a major is heded for the Bay, ESPECIALLY just to the north of the Tampa area, we'll call it a day, and make that move back to Dallas.
I will Drak. Wife called, so I had to suspend blog activity for a moment:-)
Some vigorous shower and thunderstorm activity across the SW Caribbean/Eastern Pacific region. The GFS is forecasting the development of a weak low pressure area in the vicinity of the thunderstorm area in the EPAC.

Very good analysis and forecast for this season Drak.
LOL!!!!! I typed 3008 season!!! Oops! Talk about a forecast!!!!
Of course, my wife gives me hell saying "you always say Tampa is overdue. Nothing is hitting here."

One of these days......
45. nash28 11:43 PM GMT on May 01, 2008
LOL!!!!! I typed 3008 season!!! Oops! Talk about a forecast!!!!

lmao!
Thanks, Dr. Masters.

Pat Fitzpatrick used ADCIRC for some of the work (SLOSH cannot handle the resolution required to model different levee configurations).

BTW, Pearland aggie, Fitzpatrick got his BS and MS at A&M, then studied under Bill Gray at CSU. He is currently a prof at MS State, posted at Stennis.

ADCIRC has gained more acceptance as the surge modeling standard. NOAA is hanging on tight to SLOSH for the time being, but is warming up to ADCIRC. ADCIRC is run by the Army corps, Naval Research Lab, numerous state agencies, and many private businesses, both for surge applications, estuary flows, and by many civil engineering firms. We are running ADCIRC at the moment with an 8-meter spatial resolution in coastal waterways and up 20 km resolution far out to sea. This makes levee-resolving surge behavoir computationally possible. 64-3GHz processors still take a solid 12 hours to run through a Katrina using the paralellization of the model developed by Clint Dawson (see Patrap's link).

We have used ADCIRC for many studies: Wetland replenishment by MS River diversion into Lake Maurepas; Camille with/without MRGO; Katrina with/without MRGO, Katrina surge levels for MS coast for Accuweather forensic department, Lafarge Cement barge surge levels and water velocities over time (9th ward levee break); hypothetical maximum envelope of water maps (MEOW) for dozens of hypothetical storms; double eyewall modeling of Katrina and the effect on surge; etc.
New Orleans was also overdue before 2005.... She just likes to test me... Hell, when a nasty line of storms are approaching from the Gulf, she'll tell me to stop blogging because it will fall apart before reaching Apollo Beach.

I have taught her too much! Too much discussion of "dry air pockets" and "lift"
Had one of my classmates and his family evacuated from NOLA. His wife is a native, they returned and are rebuilding better than ever.

Gene W
MLC, I'm about as prepared as I'm going to be. The only thing left to do is fill up my gas cans at the end of May and check on stored dry good. Everything else was already purchased in 2006 and 2007 in preparation for another bear of a hurricane season.
wow, atmoaggie! that's awesome! i work with three guys from MSU. and, Bill Gray is a pretty cool guy :)
I am actually more concerned this year for the Tampa/St Pete area as far as a mass evacuation is concerned. In 2004 when Charley was approaching and when the order was given on the 12th of August, over 200,000 people began hitting I-275 to get out of dodge. It went smoothly. When my wife and I packed the cars and evacuated at 5am the day Charley hit, it was a ghost town! This year, every major artery in this area is under massive construction with lanes closed, concrete chewed up, etc...
July 19, 2007
From Katrina Forward: Producing Better Storm Surge Forecasts
-- ADCIRC: The Next Generation Storm Surge Model Link

ADCIRC can be modified for a number of applications -- essentially any phenomena related to the hydrodynamics of surface waters such as an ocean, river, or lake. For hurricane storm surge and flooding predictions, inputs to the model include such variables as coastline geometry, water depths, land elevations and obstructions, land types, and hurricane winds and pressures.



This is the peer reviewed pulication list from the ADCIRC site: Link
nash, I was in Tampa (we were considering moving there...unfortunately, there's not a lot of jobs for chemical engineers!) when we were chased out of Florida by Frances! Those poor folks on the east coast of FL evacuated to Tampa only to have the storm follow them. When the first rain bands came through, I had never seen anything like that. Even though we had changed our flight to a day earlier, I was afraid we weren't going to make it out of town. I never felt so safe as to be on an airplane at 35000 feet heading west into the GOM at 500 mph!
inputs to the model include such variables as coastline geometry, water depths, land elevations and obstructions

Exactly, only ADCIRC can model the effect of the railroad beds that run parallel to the MS coast on incoming surge, for example. Also of importance there is how the surge recedes.
Went thru Elena on Pass Road in Gulfport in 85.Those tracks are only a couple of Blocks from the Beach in Some areas.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
0:00 AM UTC April 28, 2006

Subject: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm over east-central Bay of Bengal

The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “MALA” over east-central Bay of Bengal moved slightly northeastwards and lay near 14.0N 91.0E or 300 km northwest of Port Blair. The system is likely to intensify further and move slowly in a north-northeasterly direction.
interesting article in Nature about the NAO...Link
supplemental information to the article linked above:

Supplemental Information

I can't imagine what would happen to world agricultural production if figure (c) on page 7 comes true...
India Meteorlogical Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
02:30 AM IST May 2, 2008

At 21:00 PM UTC, The very severe cyclonic storm %u201CNARGIS%u201D over east central Bay of Bengal lays near 16.0N 91.5E or 400 km southwest of Sandoway (Myanmar). The system is likely to intensify further and move in a east-northeasterly direction and cross Myanmar coast around 17N by evening/night of today (May 2).

Under its influence, rain/thundershower is likely at many places with isolated heavy falls over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 24 hours.

Squally wind speed reaching 45-55 km/h is likely over Andaman Islands and adjoining sea areas during next 24 hours. Sea condition will be rough to very rough around Andaman Islands.

Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number Thirty-two
21:00 UTC May 1, 2008

The Very Severe Tropical Cyclone Nargis [980 hPa] over east central Bay of Bengal lays centered near 16.0N 91.5E or 400 kms southwest of Sandoway, Mynamar.

Current Dvorak Intensity is T4.0. Maximum 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 75 knots with an estimated central pressure is 980 hPa. Sea Conditions is phenomenal around the system's center.

Satellite imagery shows broken to solid intense to very intense convective clouds between 10.0 to 18.0N and 88.0 to 95.5E in association with the system.

FORECAST: THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS MYANMAR COAST AROUND 17N BY 1200 AND 1800 UTC OF 2ND MAY 2008. 24 HOURS FORECAST INTENSITY IS T5.0.
Nargis Track Link
Oh man. They are gonna get slammed. Pray for them.
Global View..Nargis Meteo-7 WV Link
What a rapid intensifying storm....(Nargis)
Severe cyclone Nargis over Bay of Bengal moves closer to Bangladesh's coast
www.chinaview.cn 2008-05-02 01:10:41

DHAKA, May 1 (Xinhua) -- The oncoming severe cyclonic storm Nargis over the West Central Bay of Bengal continued packing in intensity and moved further closer to Bangladesh southeastern coast, prompting the hoisting of warning signals higher Thursday. Link
Nargis gets a move, readies for landfall Link

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) traced the system to about 650 km southwest of Sandoway (Myanmar) on Thursday. Nargis is likely to undergo another round of intensification and move in an east-northeasterly direction to cross the Myanmar on Saturday night, the IMD said.

The multi-hazard early warning system (EWS) at the Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre (ADPC) here has said Nargis is likely to slam down on the southern Myanmar coast around 7.30 p.m. on Saturday, according to forecasts generated through simulation runs.
Uh..uh..

Someone has stolen/copied Drakoen's blog, that he posted earlier tonight. See here, flag this person's blog, ASAP
61& 62. P.A. thank you for that read on NAO. I will study it further to see if I find any interesting or unusual trends there not already mentioned
I saw that someone copied my blog i'm going to contact Admins about it.
watch out your blogs could be next
I flagged it, if it's any help, Drak.
Pearland - you are a ChE also?

What industry are you in? What is your job?

I'm a process engineer for an oil company in Looziana (petrochemical complex).
79. Ivansrvivr 11:30 PM GMT on April 26, 2008
I look at 04 because of what I believe will be weak El Nino by hurricane season. (not enough to squash season but I think it will play a role) I believe season will be cross between 99 and 04 as far as comparison years. This is only my opinion though and I am not saying the 55 predictions are wrong, just that my guess is different. We are all just guessing after all and are all basing our guesses on climatology and 55 is actually the prototype post Nina season.(So I do understand your argument and think it solidly based in climatology)


An El nino by hurricane season is HIGHLY unlikely, None of the models predict that much of a rapid EL nino, Most models hang on to Neutral conditions for most of the season...
I know you all know the story, but for any new-Bs lurking, revisit the original botched evacuation:
The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935
Pics
I have evacuated the keys before. Didn't have to tell us twice.
NYR won one. Big deal.
Was anyone else in New Orleans for Jazz Fest last weekend?

I'm now totally under the view that the city has no real ability to stay dry during even a heavy rainstorm (forget tropical depression even).

I walked through near a foot of water on the sidewalks of the street out front of City Park on my way out.
Parts of Algiers flooded pretty badly.

Pictures are up on NOLA.com if interested.
Rita and Houston, of course, is one of my favorite topics. It was a disgusting mess. People choked the roads before any hurricane warning was issued and the warning that was issued gave a long lead time.

One point that caught everyone by surprise was how quickly the gas stations ran out. We learned the hard way that if everyone in Houston fills their gas tanks at the same time, there will be no more gas left. If people also buy gas for generators, they will be putting an even heavier burden on gas supplies.

Advice used to be to fill up your gas tanks before a storm. I've heard that for years and years. I have now heard some questions about that advice. Since gas was such a huge issue with Rita, I'd like to get some clarification on that. The FEMA web page seems to ignore the issue. They advise: "Keep your vehicle fueled ..."

Have y'all heard anything about this issue?
Does anyone notice the decrease in SST's in the eastern pacific over the past week? Possible signs of regeneration of La Nina? I think not but you never know....

anyways im off. nignt
82. I know from experiences that fuel is becomes huge issue when there is no power and no accessable roads into town. Fuel you vehicles and every container you can use before a storm.
We will most likely be in a Neutral condition throughout most of the hurricane season. The ENSO regions have been indicating that for the last few months now.
Does anyone notice the decrease in SST's in the eastern pacific over the past week?

I believe that is more seasonal (SSTs are warmest in March there and coolest in September, with a range of about 5*C); Australia says that conditions have returned to neutral; trade winds havs also collapsed across the eastern Pacific.

Here are the current SST anomalies:



Here is an animation for the past week - warm anomalies are clearly expanding:

So no one has heard of the problem that if everyone tries to fuel up, there will not be enough fuel to do that?
Twas at Jazz Fest Last Friday for Allison Krauss and Robert Plant.

Saturday there was street flooding in Algiers..4inch rain rates for over an Hour will overwhelm any drainage..period.

The system in New Orleans,East Bank,..specifically,can handle one inch the First Hour,and a Half inch per Hour thereafter.
Exceed those rates and flooding will occur.

Algiers on the West BAnk had Zero Flooding in Katrina,cept for some rain from the Storms rain fall.

I bet that was great!
Evening all.

87. bappit 10:10 PM EDT on May 01, 2008
So no one has heard of the problem that if everyone tries to fuel up, there will not be enough fuel to do that?


It's pretty much to be expected. One of the big stories every time a 'cane hits S. FL is the length of the lines at gas stations.
Nargis is projected to come onshore in the Irrawaddy Delta area of Myanmar.

This is the most densely populated area of the country, with a population of about 3.5 million people. There are a large number of towns and villages scattered throughout the delta, most located along the banks of the larger rivers. The economy of the delta is based around the rivers, with most goods transported by water.

It is also the main agricultural area for the country. The primary crop in this area is rice, making up about 40% of the nation's rice production. The Irrawaddy Delta is also a major fishing center... especially for shrimp. The local rivers are a major source of fish.

The land is relatively flat throughout the delta region, with many areas being only a few feet above sea level. Rangoon is the largest city in Myanmar, being on the East side of the delta about 21 miles inland along the Rangoon river. It has a population of nearly 6 Million people.

Rangoon is going to be on the South side of circulation and will be getting some of the worst winds and part of the storm surge from the bay.

This storm will devestate the Myanmar economy. A strong storm surge will probably ruin most of the rice harvest this year, scatter fish populations and submerge a LOT of farmland. In addition, the high winds and tide will affect a lot of low lying, highly populated villages that are located, at sea level, on rivers prone to flooding.

Last year, Myanmar was hit by another strong hurricane that made landfall further North around their hill country. It did far less damage than was possible, but was still devestating. This one, Nargis, will be an economic catastrophe and probably cause a large loss of life due to high storm surge.
This wasn't long lines. It was no gas. Nada.

That occurred for areas that didn't even get completely overcast.

Interestingly, I saw a news story doing a search about long lines in Fla. when Rita was already past the state. People were trying to beat an expected price increase.
Allison Krauss and Robert Plant
Binocular Cam pic Link


When the Levee Breaks,Jazz fest,Last Friday Link
Evening all :~)

Good to see everyone.

TexasG, thanks for the information. Very informed analysis of the area to be effected.

Twas at Jazz Fest Last Friday for Allison Krauss and Robert Plant.


Plant may have seen his prime already pat, but man I love me some Allison! Sweet voice. Ranks up there with Jill Scott imho.
87. When you have been hit by or are about to be hit my a major, you sit in that gas line like it or not or go without. It becomes matter of survival or at least having convenience of working car.
She was so Fine..and a Voice Like an Angel for sure. Link
STL, there seems to be cooling in areas but warming and expanding warmth in others. That makes it basically neutral the way I see it.
Wish I had a sound board recording of that pat
92, it was long lines for me because i got in one long before it ran out, filled car and cans, made sure I didn't have to get in line again until there was gas to get.
They did some stuff From Alan Touissant,who watched them from the crowd.

They also did the "Battle of Evermore" from LZ-4 with her doing the High C's.Link

Yep Pat, she is aging a heck of a lot better then Plant :~)

Good to see ya Ivan
So no one has heard advice about not filling up unless you are 1/4 full or less. I heard that but can't find an internet link for it.

It was interesting with Rita that everyone left on Thursday and the roads were empty on Friday but there was no gas to spare and, anyway, really no where to go unless you camped out someplace. Of course, there was no good reason for most of the people who left Houston to evacuate--just fear created by Katrina news stories.
So no one has heard advice about not filling up unless you are 1/4 full or less.

It is a good idea to run old gas out from what I understand, but pre storm those kind of rules or guidelines are out the window.

If you Own a NOAA Radio,,strike......7
Plant & Krauss to appear at Austin City Limits Fest. I've seen both on ACL, but not together. Maybe they'll tape it. Plant still rocks hard.

Need to store gas? Stabil
seven?! why seven.. =P
103. always have bottle of "stabil" it makes gas last over a year in the can.
105, you beat me to that one.
101, thankyou SJ. I am "in and out" tonight. Im off for a bit. may pop up later. Time to run the cat so I can sleep later.
Study reveals morale crisis at National Hurricane Center

MIAMI --Last year's leadership crisis and staff mutiny at the National Hurricane Center exposed deep-rooted personal and departmental jealousies and frustrations that left many employees thoroughly demoralized, according to a study by independent experts.

The study found that support personnel described hurricane forecasters as "prima donnas," "elitist" and "arrogant," female employees struggled to be heard, managers allowed problems to fester and some "introverted" scientists were intimidated into silence.

On a 1-to-5 scale, the average response when asked about overall morale was 2.

"Over time, the staff has muddled and struggled through changes in strategic direction, leadership, negative media attention and an ongoing, complex set of unresolved conflicts," said the 41-page study, recently distributed to the center's employees. A copy was obtained Thursday by The Miami Herald


The article goes on & is quite indepth.
India Meteorological Department

At 0:00 AM UTC, The Very Severe Tropical Cyclone Nargis [972 hPa] over east central Bay of Bengal moved eastward and intensified further. The system lays centered near 16.0N 92.5E or 350 kms southwest of Sandoway (Myanmar) and 200 kms west-southwest of Pathein (Myanmar).

Current Dvorak Intensity is T4.5. Maximum 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 80 knots with an estimated central pressure of 972 hPa. Sea Condition is phenomenal around the system.

Satellite imagery shows broken to solid intense to very intense convective clouds between 12.0 to 18.0N and 88.0 to 93.5E in association with the system.

FORECAST: THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS MYANMAR COAST BETWEEN 16.0 AND 17.0N BY AROUND EVENING/NIGHT OF TODAY. 12 HOURS FORECAST INTENSITY IS T5.0.
Weighing in on the stolen website, someone, please STEAL MY Blog! LOL

Also, about the Rita evacuation, We were told to fill up our vehicles. We did that. We have 2 cars and needed both to get ourselves and our pets out of town. Part of our problem here (and in Florida) is that we have to go a long ways to get out of harm. Anywhere you drive in Texas is a long way. Unless you are driving a tiny vehicle with a hydrogen/gas engine, it's unlikely you could reach far enough on one take of gas to get you very far. Sitting for hours in traffic was a lot of the problem and we left at 1AM, trying to take advantage of the relatively cooler air and hoping the darkness would help our pets stay calmer.

Houston "now" admits they started the contraflow lanes way too late. If only they'd listened to the people on the highway, they could have done something, but they didn't see the need or at that point couldn't do anything different.

We live inland, far enough that a Cat 3 would not have endangered us, but we evacuated when the predictions were for a Cat 5. At that time the path was headed for the mouth of Galveston Bay, taking a beeline similar to the 1900 Hurricane. Not knowing it's exact intensity, it was said to have been a Cat 3 still when it pass directly over our area. Though our country was under a voluntary evacuation, we knew we could not have withstood Cat 3 winds. We live in mobile home.

I cannot describe what it was like to try to get out of town. Our main egress is Hwy 36, which was bumper to bumper and on the other end of our street people were lined up there trying to navigate around the blockage. It was a no win situation. Just as we were waiting on Hwy. 36 we'd heard on the radio that 3 people had died in our county trying to leave. Nothing like sheer adrenaline surging through your veins to help you stay awake all night. One man flipped and landed upside down in a ditch and drown. Two elderly people had pulled off the side of the road and left their a/c running. They had died of carbon monoxide poisoning. I'm not sure exactly how that happened but I can understand their need to have the a/c on. It was the hottest I've ever felt it here in Texas.

Would we evacuate again? If it was a class 5 headed this way...probably. Anything less and we'll stay put. I have nightmares of that 25 hour drive to get out and find a place that would take 2 people and a lot of animals who had no where else to go. We'd die with our pets if it came to that. (Yes, we are insane, please don't send us email to that affect)

Forecast and Intensity for Nargis issued by the IMD

Position 1200z: 16.3N 94.0E
Maximum Winds 1200z: 90 knots

Position 1800z: Overland

---
people of Myanmar has about 7 to 8 hours until landfall of this cyclone.
Latest from NOAA on Cyclone Nargis:

WWIO20 KNES 020246

A. 01B (NARGIS)

B. 02/0230Z

C. 15.8N

D. 93.2E

E. ONE/MET-7

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=6.0 BASED ON CDG RING WITH WH EYE. PT=6.0.
MET=6.0. LATEST IMAGE INDICATES EYE WARMING WITH SMALL AREA OF BL.

Doesn't look good.
112. catfuraplenty 11:27 PM CDT on May 01, 2008
Anywhere you drive in Texas is a long way.


- Driving across TX gave me a new appreciation and understanding of the Monroe Doctrine! ;P

- Being stuck in traffic for 25 hours would have to seem like death itself. I couldn't bare it.
Thailand Meteorological Department also has 80 knots.. thought they usually use 10 minute sustained winds when they analyze like the JMA.

90 knots (10 min avg) should equal 100 knots as the JTWC shows for Nargis as of 12am UTC.
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 MAY 2008 Time : 043000 UTC
Lat : 15:44:23 N Lon : 93:18:36 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 976.0mb/ 65.0kt

      6hr-Avg T#  3hr-Avg T#   Adj T#   Raw T# 
4.0 4.0 4.3 7.0


Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : 0.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -38.1C Cloud Region Temp : -82.9C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
If that messes up the blog, I am sorry.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (0600z 02May)
===========================================
An area of convection (93W) located near 6.5N 144.3E or 400 NM south of Guam. Recent multispectral imagery and 0418z AMSU Image shows isolated convection near a weak low level circulation center. Upper level analysis indicates a favorable environment for development with low vertical wind shear and good divergence aloft.

Maximum sustained winds estimated at 10-15 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1006 MB. Because the low level circulation center is just developing and not yet persistent, the potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is POOR.
India Meteorological Department

At 6:00 AM UTC, The Very Severe Tropical Cyclone Nargis [962 hPa] over east central Bay of Bengal intensified and continued to move eastward. The system lays centered near 16.0N 93.5E or 150 kms west-southwest of Pathein (Mynamar).

Current Dvorak Intensity is T5.0. Maximum 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 90 knots with an estimated central pressure of 962 hPa. Sea Condition is phenomenal around the system.

Satellite imagery shows broken to solid intense to very intense convective clouds between 10.0 to 17.5N and east of 90.0E in association with the system.

FORECAST: THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A EASTERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS MYANMAR COAST BETWEEN 16.0N AROUND 1200 UTC OF TODAY.

JTWC has 1 minute sustained winds of 115 knots

----
Well this is it. Landfall is beginning to take place... 3 hours or less now.


Category 4: 115 knots
Morning everyone, and especially HGW. Looks like that is going to be a direct strike on the Irrawaddy delta in truth. That's just about the worst possible place in Myanmar. Hope they got word out to remote dwelling people in time . . . and at least the storm isn't coming ashore at night.
And to think, less than 48 hours ago, Nargis was struggling to intensify, and indeed, it even weakened, all the way to minimal hurricane force. Now it's a major hurricane headed straight for Myanmar. Bad bad situation, and a very shocking burst of rapid intensification.
Satellite imagery shows that the eye of Nargis is making landfall.
My sister is in Dhaka. I e-mailed her the story last night and when I read her e-mail this morning, she was under the impression then it would strike on Monday. Then she e-mailed me in the wee hours of this morning and seemed surprised it was coming. She's a managing elite there and had no information until the last minute! What should she expect?
(She said it's the very worst time for a storm to strike. The rice is about to be harvested, so that will be lost, and there is already a serious food shortage and highly inflated prices there...they still haven't recovered from the last big storm.)
Based upon Dr. Master's blog about wetlands reducing storm surge, perhaps inland will fare better for Nargis making landfall where it is...don't know. It's a disaster no matter how you look at it. Anybody know what to expect in Dhaka and what time it will get there?
morning gang....Chicklit, hope your sister will be ok
Spoke to a close friend of the late Jefferson Parish Sheriff, Harry Lee yesterday. Some how we ended up discussing the nutria rat problem in Louisiana. He told me how Sheriff Lee joked and laughed about the criticism he received for ordering his deputies to shoot the rodents in the canals around New Orleans.

Then he said something that might shock all of you...He quoted the late Sheriff saying, "Nutria rats were one of (if not the primary) reason the levees failed".

I laughed and let him explain. I know it sounds crazy, but if you know anything about nutria, you know how they burrow into embankments along water ways.
I'm updating my blog on this feature off the west coast of africa:



Nutria burrow into levee Walls,on drainage canals..not the 17th Street Canal ones.And those suckas can do a lot of damage.
Ironically..it was a Big Hurricane that Loosed the nutria from a Scientific endeavor here in S. Louisiana ..and the Population has been problematic since.

I did a Blog on Harry Lee's Life and Funeral.

Harry Lee was a Member of the Asian Jade Society. Link
Good morning all. Had a rough early morning when gunshots started to ring out in my neighborhood here in Cooper City. It was a police involved shooting and my entire street has been closed off for further investigation. Very rarely does something like this occur here. Scary stuff.

I have a whole host of comments to make this morning regarding previous posts.

First off, I would like to comment on Drak's 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. He seems to be right on the money as of this time with his current analysis, and might I say some incredibly deep analysis at that. I haven't even been able to read the entire article yet (yes I'm calling it an article). Terrific job Drak.

For 456, could you offer your analysis on this feature developing off the West African coast? Seems like a very vigorous thunderstorm complex. The satellite presentation seems to indicate some low-level circulation, although I haven't even watched any loops on this feature.

Nargis has been maintaining quite and impressive pinhole eye for nearly the past 24 hours which would indicate to me that this is well in the "very severe" range, quite possibly at Category 4 strength. I just hope that everyone in its path are prepared for this massive storm.

Just wanted to let you all know that, like Drak, I will be posting my 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Preview today on my website with an easy-to-understand explanation for my predictions.

On another note, this is the first time that I'm using Firefox for Wunderground and it is so much better than Internet Explorer.
Firefox is recommended by wunderground developers for surfing the site.The only way to Fly Tropically,is with FireFox2.
For 456, could you offer your analysis on this feature developing off the West African coast? Seems like a very vigorous thunderstorm complex. The satellite presentation seems to indicate some low-level circulation, although I haven't even watched any loops on this feature.

follow the link below
Where is the link 456?
Bay of Bengal looks like a cat 5 to me. Like Felix last yr?
Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC)
Version 1 Tropical Cyclone Nargis V-max 115 knots Link
cch,

post 131 or just visit my blog.
Good heads-up, 456.
A lot of persistant dry air west and north of that cluster. Something to keep an eye on though.
wow CCh, that is scary stuff!
I don't know if this has been posted here yet.
I did on my blog earlier.....from today's Miami Herald:


HURRICANE CENTER

Staff saw forecasters as `arrogant, prima donnas'
Low morale and internal jealousies have been a persistent problem at the National Hurricane Center, according to a new study.
Classic hook echo in arkansas. Velocity radar depicts it as well.
Good morning!

Rough times on the Burma coast today. I ready yesterday that the Irrawaddy area was one of their more heavily populated areas. I hope that enough warning was given. Thoughts go out for them!
From #130: Nutria burrow into levee Walls,on drainage canals..not the 17th Street Canal ones.And those suckas can do a lot of damage.
Ironically..it was a Big Hurricane that Loosed the nutria from a Scientific endeavor here in S. Louisiana ..and the Population has been problematic since.


Nutria (aka coypu) were imported from South America for commercial fur farming. A hurricane might have allowed some to escape in Louisiana, but they've also managed to escape from captivity in various hurricane-free parts of Europe and Asia, so it's a safe bet that they would have gotten loose one way or another.
http://www.nutria.com/site.php

It's another example of a costly invasive species introduced so somebody could make a quick buck. Nutria were imported as long ago as the 1880's, so maybe we can excuse some ecological ignorance then. No excuse now for that sort of thing happening now, but we seem to have a real problem putting the lid on exotic species importation. Private profit at public expense, as usual.

http://www.invasivespeciesinfo.gov/

Ok, off the soapbox, but one more thought from a biologist for you weatherheads. One of the sometimes less obvious effects of hurricanes is their role in biological dispersal, blowing seeds, spores, birds and insects for hundreds of miles, and generating floods and surges that allow aquatic animals to spread into to new drainages and other habitats.
How many more days till Hurricane season starts? I've lost track...
456 quite an interesting feature off the west coast of Africa for this time of year. there is some cyclomic turning with wind shear in the area near 10-15 knots. conditions appear to be a bit favourale down the road. howevwer i don't expect anything to develop apart from a strong tropical wave.
136. leftovers 7:03 AM CDT on May 02, 2008
Bay of Bengal looks like a cat 5 to me. Like Felix last yr?


I would agree; here is a comparison of Nargis just before landfall (it actually appears to be skirting the coastline, which is worse since it weakens more slowly and directly affects a much larger area) and Felix at peak intensity (175 mph):





...the too familiar blue tarps. And, while there are plenty still around, I hope that none have to be added to the landscape this year!
G'morning, StormW!
Nargis - SSMI/AMSRE-derived Total Precipitable Water - Indian Ocean LOOP.
"Unless you have your computer in the basement or the most intererior room of the ground floor ( aka the hall closet or bathroom ) you probably ought not be blogging during a Tornado Warning."

Come on GulfScotsman... where's your sense of adventure?
Storm, did you read 456's post earlier regarding the feature off Western Africa? If so, what would you classify this feature as? Looks very interesting; interesting enough that I can't quite find the right classification for it. I'm not quite certain that it is a tropical wave. Something that I have noticed in satellite loops is some low-level turning in association with this. Well, anyways, I'm just rambling on and want to hear what you have to say. Anyone can comment on this if they like. The satellite image of the feature that 456 and I have been talking about is below.
165. GulfScotsman 11:52 AM EDT on May 02, 2008
ITCZ clutter. not much more than that

Yep.Development in may of the african coast is unlikely.Anywere in the basin as a matter of fact.
166. hurricane23 3:55 PM GMT on May 02, 2008
165. GulfScotsman 11:52 AM EDT on May 02, 2008
ITCZ clutter. not much more than that

Yep.Development in may of the african coast is unlikely.Anywere in the basin as a matter of fact.


Not meaning to be rude, but in my post, did I ever mention development with this feature. It was just something to watch.

Take a look at the QuikSCAT from the area where the feature exists. It does display lower-level turning at around 5N and 20W. Also, there are a few 25-30 kt. wind barbs (although more than likely rain-contaminated). This could indeed become an invest in the coming days. The environmental conditions seem conducive for development, although development in May would be very unusual. Remember the main rule of nature. Expect the unexpected.
Forgot to add the image.
Storm, if they were to classify this as a tropical wave, how would it be represented on the Surface Maps? They already have an axis on the 00UTC map.

We will have to wait on the 2:05 pm update to discover whether or not we have our second - in some people's opinions, third - tropical wave from Africa.
Gulf - why you giving cchs such a rough time? He and 456 might be onto something. Time is the ultimate test. Most likely it will be nothing, but let's see how it looks tomorrow.
Thanks for the link Storm. I forgot about the 12.5km QuikSCAT page on the site. Much better data, although it makes it more difficult to analyze the surface winds since there is far more cluttering of wind barbs.
Tornadofan, don't worry about it. I love to hear (forgot, I can't hear anyone on these blogs) what other people have to say on various topics. It makes things much more interesting and you learn much from reading their opinions. I'm cool with Gulf. He's always been a great blogger and I respect his opinions. Just going off climatology, which is perfectly correct to do. I just watch for all possible development, no matter what time of the year it may be.
Cool Gulf. I'm not trying to cause trouble either. I'm just taking up for the youngster.

I agree with your list 100%.
If you have a NOAA radio,,strike......"7"

wu-Poll #24
Morning GSM.

I hear Tony Stark is Flying the African Wave from St. Croix.

As we can all see, the bloggers that participate in these blogs have formed a "community" as stated in the Options menu when you sign in. Despite the fact we have varying opinions, we all understand that they're necessary for all to learn and be further enriched by the amazing cycle we call weather. Unlike the presidential debates, where they constantly assault each other over the main issues of the day, we take other's opinions and apply them to our neverending study of meteorology. Without these varying opinions, noone would learn anything, which would lead to this blog becoming obsolete and bland. For these reasons, I have continued to use these blogs and will continue to use these blogs well into the future.

CCHS Weatherman
By the way, since I have to focus on studying for Final Exams in Trigonometry/Pre-Calculus as well as CHM1041 on Monday, I will postpone my release of my 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Preview until Monday. Sorry for any inconvenience.
yes, a tropical wave off the coast of Africa but imo this wave has no future because it has to deal with strong windshear ahead but this maybe a sign of a very active wave season coming off Africa this year.
cchs-convection seems to be increasing with this "wave". Interesting to watch...for now.
Post 190:

Looking forward to it! Study hard, good luck!
Image and video of a half-mile wide tornado in Iowa yesterday:



YouTube video (embedding disabled)
Brand New Spiffy Midland WR-100 from Walgreens, 30 Bucks. Needed one for Upstairs.





Midland,Walgreens and NOAA all together on this effort.
A fine thing for sure. Link
Six killed by Arkansas storms

DAMASCUS, Arkansas (AP) -- Storms rolled across Arkansas, killing at least six people including a teenager crushed by a tree while she slept in her bed, officials said Friday.

Storms late Thursday and early Friday seriously damaged homes and businesses in the Kansas City, Missouri, area, and tornadoes were also reported in Oklahoma and Texas, although there were no immediate reports of severe damage.

Police said the 15-year-old girl was killed when a tree fell through a bedroom where she was sleeping at her home in Siloam Springs in north Arkansas. State Department of Emergency Management spokesman Tommy Jackson also confirmed two deaths in Conway County and three deaths in Van Buren County. The agency reported 13 injuries.
CCHS, I can definately see that wave as something to watch!
Good afternoon folks! Much of today i have been monitoring that area off the African coast. It indeed looks impressive and interesting, It is however still May and development would be very unusual, Especially way out there in the far Eastern Atlantic. Conditions seem somewhat favorable for development so it is something to watch. I will have a blog update on this feature later this evening.

If it can continue to persist i have no doubt that it would be labeled Invest 90L tomorrow. CCHS keep up the good work along with good observations, Also same for 456!
BREAKING: NHC Confirms Tropical Wave
Excerpt below.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N10W 2N20W EQUATOR AT 34W THEN
1N43W INTO NE BRAZIL. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 3N TO 9N EAST OF 20W TO THE
AFRICAN COAST. A SFC TROUGH WAS ANALYZED IN THIS AREA ALONG
15W/16W ON THE 12Z SFC MAP. THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS COULD BE A TROPICAL WAVE. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A WELL DEFINED INVERTED V-PATTERN. THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM
ALSO INDICATES THE WWD PROPAGATION OF THIS SYSTEM DURING LAST
TWO DAYS...AND THE BAMAKO SOUNDING SHOWED THE PASSAGE OF THIS
TROUGH/WAVE BETWEEN APRIL 30 AND MAY 1ST. BASED ON THIS DATA AND
THE TIME OF THE YEAR...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE INTRODUCED ON THE
18Z MAP.
202. CJ5
Hello all! It will not be long now before this place gets to hopping. My checkins are become more frequent..before long my employer will be getting the short end of the deal. LOL
TVS
here..

NEXRAD Radar
Memphis Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI Link
201. cchsweatherman 6:18 PM GMT on May 02, 2008
BREAKING: NHC Confirms Tropical Wave
Excerpt below


After observing satellite imagery. I figured they would confirm this. Also it's now that time of the year when we typically start to see things transition and begin to get on the ball, Tropical waves start rolling off about now, Usually conditions are favorable out there like they currently are though, So this definitely will be watched, Very interesting!
Well,..lets have a Look at it. GOES Low Cloud Product..latest Vis image Link

WV Link

IR Link

Spilt Window Atlantic Link

E Atlantic Grids Link

Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
Space Science and Engineering Center / University of Wisconsin-Madison

Tropical Cyclones ...A Satellite Perspective Link
The shape of the coast of Myanmar combined with the direction of that landfalling storm and the winds associated with it look particularly bad for storm surge concerns. It looks like the winds will just be shoving the water into a v-shaped cone for several hours.
I've been thinking about this over the past few months and I have realized that Tampa is pretty much the only city along the gulf that has been spared by hurricane force winds for a long time now (I'll start at 1995). I have put together a list of the Gulf coast cities and the hurricane which affected each most recently.

We'll start from the West:
*Corpus Christi for the most part has been spared from hurricane winds
*Like CC, Houston has sustained little damage from hurricanes although a number of TS have come through including Grace and Dean
*Beaumont was just affected lat year as Humberto rapidly formed and moved through bringing hurricane force winds.
*The entire coast of LA, as we all know, was affected by strong hurricane force winds as Rita and Katrina came through.
*Mississippi was affected with strong Hurricane force winds with katrina as well.
*Pensacola was covered with the hurricane winds by Ivan in '04 along with most of the FL peninsula
*The west coast of Fl north of new port Richey experienced hurricane force gusts as Frances and Jeanne blew by.
*TAMPA has not been affected by hurricane force winds or even gusts during this whole time
*SW fl was hit recently by Charley and Wilma
*The keys got Georges in '98 and wilma in "05
SE fl got Wilma, Frances, and Jeanne as did CE Fl
*Jax has been spared for the most part although they did experience minimal hurricane force gusts when Charley crossed the state.

....so west texas and TAMPA are pretty much the only areas along the Gulf that have not experienced Hurricane force winds in recent history. (1995).... does this give us here in central west fl a larger probability of getting hit every year??? It's a scary idea....
I dont think that our feature has associated low-level turning, More like the mid-levels...
....so west texas and TAMPA are pretty much the only areas along the Gulf that have not experienced Hurricane force winds in recent history. (1995).... does this give us here in central west fl a larger probability of getting hit every year??? It's a scary idea....

Not neccessarily...Tampa has not had a DIRECT hit for like over a Century...i believe.
Yes that is true. We did feel gails during Charley though in 2003.
Hi, all! I'm FallenStar. My buddy, Koritheman wanted me to join since I have personal experience (and, thus, a great interest), in hurricanes and the like. lol

I live on the coast of MS, not more than a mile or two away from the coast, yet, I have not yet been flooded out from any hurricane, whether it be Elena in '85, Georges in '98, Ivan in '04, and the four-way punch of Cindy, Dennis, Katrina, and Rita in '05.

I'm not saying it won't ever happen, though. Just merely that it hasn't happened and for that, I can only feel grateful, lol.

One thing that always interested me was how *did* Ivan make that complete circle? Was it circulating an upper level high(or low)?

And, what exactly made Katrina make that more southwesterly turn? I theorized that it was an upper level high that moved back over the U.S. when it wasn't thought to be doing so.

Thanks for any and all information! =D
Interesting that the levees seem to have made the storm surge WORSE instead of better. Maybe we would be better off with nature instead of the Army Corps of Engineers.
Went thru Elena On Pass Road not far from the SeaBee Base in 85,..Welcome to the Blogs.
LOL well here you go TROPICAL WAVE will officially be introduced on the 18z map.

THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N10W 2N20W EQUATOR AT 34W THEN
1N43W INTO NE BRAZIL. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 3N TO 9N EAST OF 20W TO THE
AFRICAN COAST. A SFC TROUGH WAS ANALYZED IN THIS AREA ALONG
15W/16W ON THE 12Z SFC MAP. THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS COULD BE A TROPICAL WAVE. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A WELL DEFINED INVERTED V-PATTERN. THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM
ALSO INDICATES THE WWD PROPAGATION OF THIS SYSTEM DURING LAST
TWO DAYS...AND THE BAMAKO SOUNDING SHOWED THE PASSAGE OF THIS
TROUGH/WAVE BETWEEN APRIL 30 AND MAY 1ST. BASED ON THIS DATA AND
THE TIME OF THE YEAR


Here are several views of the african coast which ive always used for tropical waves of the african coast.

1st link and 2nd link

More tropical links can be found HERE on my tropics page.

HERE is another one from LSU

Besides the links i provided you can always get more from SSD.
Good a tropical wave as suspected.
Dr.Masters was referring to the River Levees.One has to Have them..or every Spring like this year, flooding could occur like in the Upper Miss River Valley,below Baton Rouge.
Without the Spillway opening, the velocities along the River threatens the Levees. Its a passe thing to say the Miss River Levees caused any Surge Heights to be Higher. The River Levee's been there nearly 90 years.

Shear is only around 5kts lol.A bit early for this stuff!

You will see the wave added to this map at 18z.
It has been a wave all day...Excellent inverted V pattern



looks like we may have 90L soon
The Tornado Continues on the Ground here..

NEXRAD Radar
Memphis Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI Link
Its a wave alright but it will run into lots of trouble real soon.
I don't know about that Tazmanian. Lets see what it looks like when it gets farther out to sea. But you may very well be right, we had subtropical activity in April of last year didn't we?

Good afternoon,

Arkansas and the surrounding states sure are taking a beating. Hope there was lots of warning and prayers!
whats wind shear like in front of it for the next few days????
We'll have wait and see what happens either near 30W or 48 hrs time. Right its the first wave that will analysed on surface maps. Last year it was around the last 10 days in May.
Nothing even close to a LLC showing on quikscat.
If you will it,90L will come
Way too early....but sheer is already starting to interact with blob/wave
Way too early....but sheer is already starting to interact with blob/wave

Yeah it is way to early these thing usually roll off by Late July early august. Actually the shear is only 5nts above this thing.
Well here it is....
LOL Gulf!!!!
interesting article on NASA "reworking" climate data:

Is the earth getting warmer, or cooler?


241. Weather456 7:22 PM GMT on May 02, 2008
First Wave of 08


You may want to change that to the First REAL wave. We already had one tropical wave, Although barely, That the NHC confirmed on April 9th i believe.
I see we have our first official tropical wave. Very well defined inverted signature with some relative vorticity on the poleward end of the wave axis.
Went thru Elena On Pass Road not far from the SeaBee Base in 85,..Welcome to the Blogs.

Ooh, Pass Road is quite a bit further north from me. I was down on the southern side of Government Blvd during Elena (south of 90) over in OS.

I don't remember much of Elena, though I do remember we were cloistered in the hallway and that I got ill (throwing up and such) during the hurricane. I don't know whether it was then that the street outside flooded or not, but I definitely remember people going by in rowboats once, though the house itself wasn't flooded, lol.
211. TBWX3000 6:33 PM GMT on May 02, 2008
Yes that is true. We did feel gails during Charley though in 2003.


Charley as in 2004 not 2003....

And our wave will likely be labeled invest 90L tomorrow if it persists. Shortly after that though, It will encounter unfavorable conditions.
I don't think this wave will get remotely close to invest status. It is very impressive for this time of year but shear will increase over the system especially as it moves slowly to the west.
Hello to all of you, I have learned alot about hurricanes and other storms from your site, but I must say that Tampa did have some damage in 2004. I do not know if there were hurricane strength winds, but I had to evacuate 4 times that season. Charlie did not directly hit us, but we were near a tornado on the way back home. Southern FL and Orlando suffered more than we did. The worst damage was following Frances when a tree hit a home next to ours and we were without power for aa week.
I enjoy looking at the storms and reading all your comments, but I hope we don't have too many powerful hurricanes. It seems like we might be in for an active season though.

yeah cane...its the first official but the link says first of...we already had a few that I still believe was AEWs. But I think part of the definition of waves the TPC uses is the time of year (May to December).
SOMEONE said tropical wave?
246. Drakoen 7:47 PM GMT on May 02, 2008
I don't think this wave will get remotely close to invest status. It is very impressive for this time of year but shear will increase over the system especially as it moves slowly to the west.


If it takes great advantage tonight during the night hours or dirunal max, An invest is not out of the question. I do agree though, Not much will come of it.
I'm not really anticipating development. This is more of a sample wave for me. Comparing early season waves with those at the peak of the African Easterly Wave Season.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
320 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN CRITTENDEN...NORTHEASTERN ST. FRANCIS AND SOUTHEASTERN
CROSS COUNTIES...

AT 320 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING AN EXTREMELY LARGE AND DANGEROUS TORNADO
TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CROSS MOVING QUIKLY INTO CRITTENDEN COUNTY.
THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PARKIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
JENNETTE...EARLE AND CRAWFORDSVILLE.

.IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

NEXRAD Radar
Memphis Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI Link
Dupage Severe Weather Warnings Page Link
Pat, you picked a great day to go to Jazzfest last Friday, both from a weather as well as a talent perspective. We got wet Saturday but had a great time anyway. I guess we'll go Sunday this weekend?

I did go to the Fly last Sunday to see the river. I'd been here for 3 weeks and hadn't seen it yet. Yup. It was full. :)
I can see why that theres a "EXTREMELY LARGE" tornado with this. Check out the hook with this.
Link
A Good View Of Algiers Point right Now Sophmom..Storms for Jazz Fest today. Link
Pat, I hadn't thought to check the River Cam. Duh! Thanks!