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Postcards III: Robot aircraft for hurricane research

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:46 PM GMT on April 30, 2008

I'm in Orlando this week for the 28th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, sponsored by the American Meteorological Society. The conference, held once every two years, brings together the world's experts on hurricane science.

Robot aircraft for hurricane research
The age of Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) for hurricane research is upon us. NASA promoted the use of their Global Hawk UAV in a talk Monday here in Orlando, and yesterday, talks about another UAV--the aerosonde--were delivered by Joe Cione and Guy Cascella of NOAA. Unlike the Global Hawk, the aerosonde has already made flights into hurricanes--into Category 1 Hurricane Ophelia in 2005, and into Category 1 conditions in the extratropical version of Hurricane Noel in 2007. The aerosonde can monitor conditions near the sea surface, where it is too dangerous to fly crewed aircraft. Data taken near the sea surface are particularly important for determining if a hurricane may undergo rapid intensification. The researchers propose to fly the Aerosonde as low as 200 feet inside a hurricane.


Figure 1. The Aerosonde in flight. Image credit:NASA.

The aerosonde is a $50,000 propeller-driven airplane with a 1.6 horsepower engine, made by Aerosonde, based in Melbourne, Australia. The plane can fly 2300 miles on 1.5 gallons of fuel at a cruising speed of 60 mph--good enough for a 20 hour flight. In 2007, an aerosonde spent 17.5 hours in 'Noreaster Noel off the U.S. East Coast, after the hurricane had transitioned to a powerful extratropical storm.

The aerosonde has not been given clearance by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to fly near the U.S. coast, because of concerns that the robot aircraft might encounter other aircraft skirting the storm, according to a Florida Sun Sentinel article posted earlier this year. The FAA does plan to give the aerosonde clearance late in 2008--with restrictions. So, for this year, the aerosonde will fly out of Barbados, where it has been given approval to fly. A 2-week research project is scheduled beginning September 1. So far, the aerosonde has not flown into anything stronger than a Category 1 storm, and the researchers are eager to test the aircraft in a "real" storm this year. The aerosonde will also be "on call" for rapid deployment anywhere in the Caribbean during the period September 15-October 31.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the new post card update Dr. Masters.

It's a shame the aerosonde will be unable to do much for the US regarding possible landfalling storms this year.....but wherever it can fly it will be a definite welcomed addition to the arsenal!

Thanks again and enjoy your stay in Florida!
That's a great photo......I haven't seen that one.
Telemetry tests for university open day display of the "Lawrence Hargrave" Aerosonde. Relays from ground and aircraft to public television network. Research program ending November 2007.


All that information and this is what stands out to me! LOL

The plane can fly 2300 miles on 1.5 gallons of fuel at a cruising speed of 60 mph

I must have gas prices on the mind...
that Areosonde will get data from the area we need the most. The layer between the Sea Surface and Cloud deck in a hurricane. Up until now that has been relative mystery.
Isn't that the greatest thing Cat?

This little vehicle is an engineering marvel!
Interesting, thanks, Dr. Masters.
But with a top speed of 60 mph, it will get blown away, surely. In any winds higher than that ??
...it'll have to "ride like the wind!" Or with the wind I would think, Pottery.

I suppose that is possible, MLC, but it would require some very careful flying, from a distant place.
Realy interesting stuff though.
Its cruising speed is 60 it might have a higher if needed
All that information and this is what stands out to me! LOL

The plane can fly 2300 miles on 1.5 gallons of fuel at a cruising speed of 60 mph

I must have gas prices on the mind...


LOL.... I actually noticed the same thing, thinking "WOW! 2300 miles on only 1.5 gallons? Why can't they do that with cars and planes?"

That is actually a good question...
Trinidad weather now-
91 f
42 % humidity
1012 pres. falling
Smoke and dust (local)
A dry season day, sapping the energy, and requiring lots of liquids.
Yeah, it'll be quite interesting to see how they hold up, data transmitted during flight and all that. Ivan mentioned between the surface and the cloud deck - as mystery, so hey, there may be some revelations this season.

At any rate, good for Barbados serving as testing ground! I guess Grantley Adams down in Bridgetown will have a new friend this summer and fall!
Yeah, and for sure Stormdude77 will be there to check it out for us!
vortfix- I wonder if those engineers would like to look at my car!

Michael-Dang good question!
old news but good stuff just the same.

Aerosonde experiments will be coordinated with NOAA and AFRES manned aircraft missions during the 2007 demo. The following experiments are possible:

1. Inflow Experiment - Sample the tropical cyclone inflow layer's thermodynamic structure by flying within 600 feet of the surface in the inner core, spiraling in on the winds of the storm. The continuous observations of very low level winds may result in establishing the location and magnitude of storm's maximum wind speed.

2. Tropical Cyclone Thermodynamic Asymmetry Experiment - The Aerosonde would fly a fixed radius orbit (~200 km from the center) either prior to or after its spiral in toward the center in order to improve the radial accuracy of the 34kt, 50kt, and 64kt wind estimates.

3. Eye Sounding and Loitering Experiment - The Aerosonde would make a corkscrew sounding within the eye up to 10,000 feet, to find any early detection signal of rapid intensity changes. This would require a clear, discernible eye when there are no AFRES flights in progress and with close coordination with any NOAA flights at the time of the sounding.
Does the aerosonde have video capability ?? It would be fun to look at the sea conditions inside a big storm. In the eye too.
be cool if it had a live video feed from inside the cane
LOL...Pottery...great minds think alike!
DIBS, Auburn.
BBL all.
heheheh, Auburn.
I'm out. See if you can post another, same time as this again LOL
Have a good one Pottery
Hey, Stormw! Looks like we're headed to neutral conditions, heh? What's the skinny? TIA
I posted this before, but in the last blog - we are already in neutral conditions according to Australia:

Summary: La Nina pattern fades; Pacific now generally neutral
Pacific climate patterns are now generally neutral. The 2007/08 La Nina event continued to fade during the past two weeks, with the majority of indicators returning to near-normal levels. Only the western to central Pacific displays any features typical of a La Nina event, with cooler than normal ocean temperatures, enhanced Trade Winds and reduced cloud amounts.

Elsewhere, ocean surface and sub-surface temperatures continued to warm, and as a result, are no longer at levels typical of a La Nina event. Furthermore, the Trade Winds across the eastern half of the Pacific are close-to or weaker than average, and the SOI has continued to retreat from the strong positive values seen earlier in the year and is now in the neutral range. The decline in La Nina has seen below average rainfall return to large parts of eastern and northern Australia during March and April.

Computer model predictions show Pacific temperatures gradually increasing over the next two seasons, but remaining near-average. The models indicate a low chance of either a stronger warming to El Nino levels or a re-intensification of La Nina conditions during 2008.

In Brief
The La Nina has weakened to neutral conditions.
Weak negative SST anomalies remain in the central to west Pacific. There are weak positive anomalies in the eastern Pacific.
Warm sub-surface anomalies lie along much of the thermocline on the equator.
The SOI is on a downward trend but remains positive at +5.
Trade Winds remain stronger than average across the central to western equatorial Pacific, but are weaker in the east.
Cloudiness near the date-line has been very much below average in recent months.
All the dynamic computer models predict neutral conditions to remain in the eastern to central Pacific in the coming months.


Check out how warm the eastern Pacific is now - just a few days ago there was a lot less yellow:

I know this was discussed prior, but I don't recall - How the UcAV handles salt spray?
Work&Lurk BBL
nothing too exciting in the atl ,carib or gomex today. the only feature of note is a surface trough with some cyclonic turning sw of the cayman islands. this area is moving sw towards central america. conditions are hostile in the immediate area and no development is anticipated.
Iam thinking the speed of the demise of the cold phase means a Nio could develop more quickly than expected.

Neutral conditions can bring up some rather busy times.
Thanks, StormW! We've seen nina values really slide quickly! It's gonna be interesting. Appreciate your thoughts!
Last month most experts were expecting La Nina to be around at least until June,but weakening.
Goes to show these events are really hard to predict duration and strength.
31. hurricane23 7:09 PM GMT on April 30, 2008
Iam thinking the speed of the demise of the cold phase means a Ni񯠣ould develop more quickly than expected.

Neutral conditions can bring up some rather busy times.


Most models indicate that most likely the main part of the season if not all season we will be under Neutral conditions. Which yes, That means busy, busy, busy!
Meteorologist Larry Cosgrove 2008 cane season outlook.

There has been speculation that the warming of waters adjacent to the
Galapagos Islands (and with it, the demise of La Nina) would favor a diminished
tropical cyclone output in the Atlantic Basin this summer and fall. While it is
true that ENSO 1,2 sector warmth is tied to a more shearing profile aloft
that is not supportive of warm-core cyclone growth in the eastern Caribbean Sea
and the vicinity of the Lesser Antilles, there is no real proof that the
current moderation of SSTs west of the Ecuadorian coastline is a lasting
characteristic of the high-sun period. The waters may cool as the initial westward
surge of warming moves into the central and western sections of the equatorial
Pacific Basin. And the possibility of a moderate or strong Great Smokies heat
ridge taking shape may mean more hospitable conditions for warm-core
cyclogenesis in the Gulf of Mexico as well as the western Sargasso Sea.

Of greatest interest is the outcome of the ITCZ-born disturbances which
emerge off of the western shoreline of Africa. After a very dry winter season,
the number, intensity, and size of tropical waves adjacent to the equatorial
shear zone has increased dramatically. Countering this renewal of impulse
presence has been the large, powerful presence of the Saharan heat ridge.
Impartation of dust has been very noticeable, spreading out in all directions from
the center of the desert (see the visible METEOSAT image at the top for proof
of this phenomenon). The subtropical high will likely expand northward into
the Mediterranean Sea and southern Europe this summer, which may cause the
advection of particulates and dry air to diminish between July and mid-September.
And with waters in the corridor of the Atlantic Basin off to a warmer than
normal start (and considering that the current cool patch adjacent to the
Lesser Antilles should moderate in the coming months), there should be perhaps a
two month window for "Cape Verde" type storms to organize and move westward.
With potential threats to the major islands and sections of North America.

The rapid warming of the Gulf of Mexico (almost a given in spring and
summer) may also interact with TUTT signatures or spin-off convection groups that
advance southward and become stranded from the westerlies. Since there have
been two incidents so far this spring of gale center formation in the
westernmost Atlantic Basin above 20 N Latitude, a possibility looms for a subtropical
system to tale shape with at least a slight threat for impact on the Gulf
Coast or shoreline of the Southeast early in Hurricane Season, or maybe slightly
previous. A more likely risk of cold-origin disturbances will come in
October in marine areas between the Bahamas and Bermuda, or near the Azores chain.

When you factor in the forecast of a neutral ENSO environment, a heightened
warm water presence over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic Ocean,
against negatives such as a reduced presence of a classic Bermuda High, prevalent
heat and dust from the Sahara Desert, and a possible shearing wind band and
cool patch across the eastern Caribbean Sea, the overall outlook begins to
resemble that of the previous tropical cyclone season in 2007. Potential exists
for systems to spring to life after a weakening phase, with effects on Mexico
and Central America. Other landfall options are Florida and Texas in the
middle or late part of summer, and an outside risk to the Eastern Seaboard in
September and October, when the polar westerlies may occasionally contort into
a favorable west-of-Appalachia trough complex
.

SUMMARY

Based on drought signatures, an increasingly neutral ENSO signature in the
Pacific Basin, early indicators of heat ridge formation and weak analogues to
the summers of 1976 and 1999, the call here is for a very hot summer across
much of the U.S. Critical heat and drought may envelop sections of the West,
Great Plains, and Old South, with more normal temperature indicators in
coastal sections of the Pacific Northwest and the Deep South. A cool summer season
is a likely outcome for much of eastern Canada, the lower Great Lakes and the
Northeast. Threats form tropical cyclones look to be slightly above normal,
with greatest potential for a North American landfall in Florida and Texas
(with some chance for a warm-core system affecting the East Coast or Appalachia
during the first part of autumn, as the 500MB longwave pattern shifts into a
weakness signature over the eastern third of the nation.
Also folks, I thought you might want to know that in addition to me issuing my tropical updates starting tomorrow, Weather456 has joined me, He will have his own blog on my site, It won't be the same as his Wunderblog he will be talking about different things that have to do with the hurricane season and he will also be releasing his updates on trouble areas and such throughout the season! I really look forward to working with him!

Josh's Weather Center
Afternoon StormW and MLC!

Based on new trends I'm thinking neutral for the first portion of the season (June to maybe as far as early September) then I presonally expect an El Nino to start setting in from then on. Next year we may be dealing with hightened wind shear across the atlantic if the El Nino plays out, which it most likely will.

Still, regardless of whether we get an El Nino or not this year, I don't think we'll really see the effects of it (hightened wind shear) until the season is well over, as it can take time for changes in the ENSO to take effect in the Atlantic. And yes, I have seen the models but I do not particularly trust them, as I believe they are warming up the Pacific too fast.
Larry is thinking a year similar to 07 landfall wise which could pan out.
Nice post Adrian
Potential exists
for systems to spring to life after a weakening phase, with effects on Mexico
and Central America. Other landfall options are Florida and Texas in the
middle or late part of summer, and an outside risk to the Eastern Seaboard in
September and October, when the polar westerlies may occasionally contort into
a favorable west-of-Appalachia trough complex.



I don't know. This kind of sounds like a cover all the bases general forecast.
36. hurricane23 7:30 PM GMT on April 30, 2008
Meteorologist Larry Cosgrove 2008 cane season outlook.

There has been speculation that the warming of waters adjacent to the
Galapagos Islands (and with it, the demise of La Nina) would favor a diminished
tropical cyclone output in the Atlantic Basin


How do they figure the weakening of an la nina would favor less tropical activity? I can understand if we were going to an El nino, We arent though, Were going into Neutral...which means we are in for a busy season, regardless. Neutral produces the most activity. Then again he mentioned that "many speculate". He basically stated our chances for a busy season havent changed much.
40. Drakoen 3:40 PM EDT on April 30, 2008
Nice post Adrian

Drak that is a current update from MET larry cosgrove.His atlantic outlook came out a few days ago.A friend sent it to me back i forgot to post it.
39. hurricane23 7:38 PM GMT on April 30, 2008
Larry is thinking a year similar to 07 landfall wise which could pan out.


How? He stated that Florida and Texas are at highest risk, Last year 90% of the storms were driven west...He is thinking more of an '04 landfall wise in my opinion.
43. hurricane23 7:43 PM GMT on April 30, 2008
40. Drakoen 3:40 PM EDT on April 30, 2008
Nice post Adrian

Drak that is a current update from MET larry cosgrove.His atlantic outlook came out a few days ago.A friend sent it to me back i forgot to post it.
Action: | Ignore User


Link please to the Atlantic Outlook, TIA
I am going to start writing my blog pertaining to my outlook on the 2008 season. I might be finished later today or tomorrow.
44. CaneAddict 3:43 PM EDT on April 30, 2008
39. hurricane23 7:38 PM GMT on April 30, 2008
Larry is thinking a year similar to 07 landfall wise which could pan out.

How? He stated that Florida and Texas are at highest risk, Last year 90% of the storms were driven west...He is thinking more of an '04 landfall wise in my opinion.

It will all depend on what current conditions are in place.With a weaker bermuda high the potential is there for systems to stay away from florida and become a threat to areas futher north like the carolinas.
4. CATAWIFE1 4:20 PM GMT on April 30, 2008
All that information and this is what stands out to me! LOL

The plane can fly 2300 miles on 1.5 gallons of fuel at a cruising speed of 60 mph

I must have gas prices on the mind...

12. MichaelSTL 4:53 PM GMT on April 30, 2008
LOL.... I actually noticed the same thing, thinking "WOW! 2300 miles on only 1.5 gallons? Why can't they do that with cars and planes?"

That is actually a good question...


DITTO! A very good question indeed!!!!
47. hurricane23 7:47 PM GMT on April 30, 2008
44. CaneAddict 3:43 PM EDT on April 30, 2008
39. hurricane23 7:38 PM GMT on April 30, 2008
Larry is thinking a year similar to 07 landfall wise which could pan out.

How? He stated that Florida and Texas are at highest risk, Last year 90% of the storms were driven west...He is thinking more of an '04 landfall wise in my opinion.

It will all depend on what current conditions are in place.With a weaker bermuda high the potential is there for systems to stay away from florida and become a threat to areas futher north like the carolinas.


Yeah i agree, Really we never will know exactly what will happen untill we know WHAT happened. Meaning it always tends to be a little different then expected and untill after the season we wont know what the season will/was like. If that makes sense.
Yeah i agree, Really we never will know exactly what will happen untill we know WHAT happened. Meaning it always tends to be a little different then expected and untill after the season we wont know what the season will/was like. If that makes sense.

Lol,yeah,I got it,but had to read over a few times.
48. Fshhead 3:48 PM EDT on April 30, 2008
4. CATAWIFE1 4:20 PM GMT on April 30, 2008
All that information and this is what stands out to me! LOL

The plane can fly 2300 miles on 1.5 gallons of fuel at a cruising speed of 60 mph

I must have gas prices on the mind...

12. MichaelSTL 4:53 PM GMT on April 30, 2008
LOL.... I actually noticed the same thing, thinking "WOW! 2300 miles on only 1.5 gallons? Why can't they do that with cars and planes?"

That is actually a good question...


DITTO! A very good question indeed!!!!


Because then the oil companies, oil rich politicians, and OPEC wouldn't make a gazillion dollars a year profit!


Thats true oil companies buy out inventors that have amazing ideas on how to make a car run on water or other reusable resources.
Caneaddict? uuuuummm, I think I got that? Now, did you say....



lol, j/k!
37. CaneAddict 3:33 PM EDT on April 30, 2008

Many Thanks to you and Weather456!

I have bookmarked your site.
Thanks, Dr. Masters; that's a very cool plane.

Looking forward to hearing more about it
and its adventures.
55. StormW 8:02 PM GMT on April 30, 2008
47. hurricane23 3:47 PM EDT on April 30, 2008
44. CaneAddict 3:43 PM EDT on April 30, 2008
39. hurricane23 7:38 PM GMT on April 30, 2008
Larry is thinking a year similar to 07 landfall wise which could pan out.

How? He stated that Florida and Texas are at highest risk, Last year 90% of the storms were driven west...He is thinking more of an '04 landfall wise in my opinion.

It will all depend on what current conditions are in place.With a weaker bermuda high the potential is there for systems to stay away from florida and become a threat to areas futher north like the carolinas.
Action: | Ignore User

The weaker high (as projected by the CFS) and the orientation and size (rather large ridge) and the mean MSLP (1020-1025 mb)indicates to me a weak or negative NAO though. Although likely the Carolinas may be more at risk, we'll have to be alert here in Fla.


I think we will definitely be alert when something rolls into the Caribbean...the chance is there for systems to take that typical NE hook through the Yucatan Channel.
Ummm, just so you all don't add this to your own vocabularies...

UAV = Unmanned Aerial Vehicle

Dr. Masters' "uncrewed" replacement of unmanned couldn't be more incorrect!
A year similar to 1985 is what iam seeing at the moment with numbers around 11/7/3.Please keep in mind this season was not extremely active number wise but out of 7 hurricanes that formed 6 made landfall in the united states.

59. hurricane23 8:17 PM GMT on April 30, 2008
A year similar to 1985 is what iam seeing at the moment with numbers around 11/7/3.Please keep in mind this season was not extremely active number wise but out of 7 hurricanes that formed 6 made landfall in the united states.


With a good likely hood of the season being mainly Neutral, I would expect to see very near the current numbers that Dr. Grays team has forecasted. I also wonder if they're going to raise there forecast numbers,. keep them the same or lower them come June, By june we will have a very good look on the hurricane season so we could put forward what will likely happen.

June1 is indeed the start of the season but i expect things could very well stay on the slow side till mid july when activity starts to pick up.
All in all ENSO is to unpredictable for me and iam not even going try to predict what might happen later this season.Just keep in mind that anything is possible.

Wheather its La nina or El nino the possiblity is very real of atleast 1 significant tropical cyclone making landfall this season.

www.AdriansWeather.com
This season is forecasted by the models and others to for the majority be Neutral...I doubt El nino will set-up as fast as La nina dissipated....Neutral will hold for awhile.
Neutral Pattern..Link

Ha Ha Ha Pat!
LOL...
49. CaneAddict 3:50 PM EDT on April 30, 2008

Yeah i agree, Really we never will know exactly what will happen untill we know WHAT happened. Meaning it always tends to be a little different then expected and untill after the season we wont know what the season will/was like. If that makes sense


That's about right on the money; as I stated on my earlier entry this morning (in response to Bastardi's current early forecast), he retro-actively "shifted" his erroneous forecast for Gulf Coast strikes from last year by stating that the "cluster" of storms shifted SW.....I stand by the notion that active vs. non-active seasons can be reasonably predicted, and usually correct; However, trying to nail down an exact number of storms, areas where they will strike months (or weeks and even days for that matter) in advance, or, predicting when the storms will start or end I think is pretty ludicrous...IMHO
Also, analog comparison to previous years is part of the game I guess (in terms of possibilities or simularities based upon current conditions) but every season is unique and different......My only prediction for this year?; while the numbers of storms may "match" some analog years, and the ulitmate number of storms v. hurricanes will match up, I wouldn't speculate much beyond that because I do not think that history repeats itself in the world of tropical hurricanes............
65. Patrap 8:48 PM GMT on April 30, 2008
Neutral Pattern..Link


lmao!
man,there was a beautiful sundog in key west yesterday. its lasted for couple of hours. it was amazing the beauty of it. also, there was a small one today. it only last an hour or so.
For those of you who missed my early post

Joe Bastardi's Early 2008 Hurricane Forecast
Posted 2008-04-25
Slightly More Storms than Average with Increased Chances for Landfalls in North America

AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center meteorologists, led by Chief Long-Range and Hurricane Forecaster Joe Bastardi, have released a preliminary hurricane season forecast for 2008. They believe the waning La Niña conditions and a continued warm water cycle in the Atlantic Basin will be the two defining factors influencing the 2008 hurricane season, causing the number of storms to be slightly above average but, more importantly, increasing the chance for U.S. landfalling storms.

"The warming is not uniform across the entire Atlantic. In some areas where hurricanes normally form - the central and eastern tropical Atlantic - ocean water temperatures are near or below normal. This should limit the number of storms, so we do not expect a near record high number like in the 2005 season. However, considering other factors, the number of storms should be slightly higher than historical averages", said Bastardi. "The warmest waters relative to normal will be in the northern areas of the Atlantic, especially toward the North American continent. This could potentially increase the threat of major landfalls to the U.S. coast."

"In determining areas of elevated potential for landfall, we try to understand where the spread of storm tracks will center - but even within this spread, storms can 'bunch', creating discrete areas of increased risk," Bastardi said. Last season, the spread of the storms shifted southwest with one such bunch in the northern Caribbean. "This year, early indications show that the spread will move north and east with a target closer to the Southeast U.S."

Bastardi and the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center are looking at 1955, 1996, and 1999 as a few of the years showing similar weather characteristics to our current large-scale patterns. In 1955, Hurricanes Connie and Diane hit the Outer Banks and Carolina Beach in North Carolina. In 1996, Hurricane Bertha made landfall near Wilmington and Hurricane Fran made landfall near Cape Fear in North Carolina. During the 1999 hurricane season, Floyd and Dennis made landfall in September on the North Carolina coast.

Bastardi will provide more details and insight at the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Summit on May 12, 2008 in Houston, TX. Attendees at the summit will include leaders in industries heavily impacted by tropical weather, Bastardi's AccuWeather.com EnergyPro® clients, and leading members of the press.

I like to think of weather as a science, but weather has lots of random chaos built in. Humans really like to be in control, but the reality is Mother Nature is in charge --perhaps to keep us humble. So I think we can get some good indications of tendencies, trends, potentials, predispositions, which are important, need to be observed and ultimately help us prepare....but it almost always seems the things you prepare for --don't happen, and the things you don't prepare for --do.....what will be will be...
I want the engine in the Aerosonde in my VW diesel wagon ---
Last season, the spread of the storms shifted southwest with one such bunch in the northern Caribbean. "This year, early indications show that the spread will move north and east with a target closer to the Southeast U.S."

That's exactly what some of us are saying; we were not sure what to exactly expect last year, and, I think that most of us were surprised to see two major Cat 5's (Felix & Dean) plow "straight accross" the North Caribbean because of the way the ridging set up around the time they came through....
but it almost always seems the things you prepare for --don't happen, and the things you don't prepare for --do.....what will be will be...

That's it surfmom!

Vort out...............>
I think that most of us were surprised last season when Felix and Dean (and at Cat 5) plowed straight "across" the Norther Caribbean last year with nary a turn because of the way the ridging conditions set up around the time they came through..........We could not have anticipated that one even two-three weeks in advance...........
sorry about the double post folks (my apologies as I did not see the first one come up for a while and I thought I hit the wrong button)...........
Wanted to share this Nasa vid of the aerosonde...kinda cool
72. mgreen91 9:22 PM GMT on April 30, 2008
For those of you who missed my early post

Joe Bastardi's Early 2008 Hurricane Forecast
Posted 2008-04-25
Slightly More Storms than Average with Increased Chances for Landfalls in North America


Joe bastardi is someone i really valued, Untill he predicted something with no support what so ever, That florida would be in great danger last year.....I have no faith in his predictions.
80. CaneAddict 5:44 PM EDT on April 30, 2008
Joe bastardi is someone i really valued, Untill he predicted something with no support what so ever, That florida would be in great danger last year.....I have no faith in his predictions.


Cane; my point is not about losing faith in someone because they may have gotten it wrong a few years in a row (like if Dr. Gray made the same mistakes which have occured); I still respect them both for what they do.....My issue is that while Dr. Gray, for an example, will focus on general estimates as to numbers and active v. non-active seasons, when some of the other's, like Bastardi, go even further and start talking about "target areas" that "will" be in danger, then you are really setting yourself up for a fall so to speak because you cannot predict such exact type of scenarios................Although I must admit, it is fun to speculate some time; just use words like "its possible that...or the like; I did it myself earlier today when I said that I would not make any extensive vacation plans this year to stay in Cancun or Cozumel during the hurricane season this year.......However, I'm talking about a gut feeling looking at the current SST's around the Yucatan Channel and potential of having a vacation interuption since it will be an active season.........I would never say that Cancun or Cozumel (or any other specific part of the tropics of the US) are definately in the strike zone this year................
Well; guess I'm going on in tangents and need to go home; I'll be in Orlando for meetings the next two days and will see if I can sneak over to the hurricane convention to catch a session (or get some literature)........

Everyone Have a Great Evening and Weekend and I'll See Everyone Next Week.........
Dr.Masters,
Notice the dry weather in Orlando? This is resembling 1998 wet March dry April, hopefully by June 1st we have rain or we could have some fire issues.
What are the reasons WMO didn't retire Dean and Felix are they making retirement a rare twice a decade thing or do they not want to retire these storms?
The blog is rather quiet tonight, **Remember** starting tomorrow i will be issuing my Tropical Updates daily! The reason for starting a month early is so i cover any possibility of pre-season development. Also blob watching usually starts to get heavy during the month of May, although not many of the "blobs" develop. IT will still be interesting to track waves and such. Also Weather456 has joined me with my website to help oost blog entries and such! Anyway im off to the shower, I'll be back in a bit for whoever is on!
I'm assuming that they only retire storms that cause more deaths then what Dean and Felix caused.
The countries nominate retirement maybe mexico and central america are used to 200 death disasters?
87. all4hurricanes 10:47 PM GMT on April 30, 2008
The countries nominate retirement maybe mexico and central america are used to 200 death disasters?


Why'd you ask the question, If you knew the answer?
Good evening all
When are they going to retire Last years storms if Any? Shouldnt we know by now?
89. HouseofGryffindor 11:37 PM GMT on April 30, 2008 Hide this comment.
Here is something of interest if you live in the Tampa Bay area:

Link


Ooh Lord.
When are they going to retire Last years storms if Any? Shouldnt we know by now?

I heard the WMO already met and made a decision not to retire any; but apparently they're still meeting according to a discussion over at Wikipedia.

I believe the deadline was April 28, so they are two days overdue, then.
good evening all...one month to go.
Evening W456...

31 Days, 03 Hours, 55 Minutes

Nifty little counter on the front page of Hurricane City.
Terra,

They already issued the 2013 Hurricane Season list (six years from 2007). They retired no storms from the 2007 list, which is a suprise considering Felix caused 133 deaths.
They already issued the 2013 Hurricane Season list (six years from 2007). They retired no storms from the 2007 list, which is a suprise considering Felix caused 133 deaths.

Out of all the storms I expected them to retire Dean; having flattened resort towns completely (such as Majahual). Damage was 6.6 million in USD while Felix only cost millions.
None of the reliable computer forecast models are showing development for the first 7 days of May.
From the NHC:

2013

Andrea
Barry
Chantal
Dean
Erin
Felix
Gabrielle
Humberto
Ingrid
Jerry
Karen
Lorenzo
Melissa
Noel
Olga
Pablo
Rebekah
Sebastien
Tanya
Van
Wendy
here's an interesting coincidence:
(from Dr. M's previous blog post)
"Ryan Maue of Florida State University showed that tropical cyclone activity in 2007 the Northern Hemisphere (Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, Western Pacific, and North Indian Oceans) was at its lowest level since 1977."

from Link

"Here is a short history of PDO phase shifts:

In 1905, PDO switched to a warm phase.
In 1946, PDO switched to a cool phase.
In 1977, PDO switched to a warm phase.
"

hmmm....
None of the reliable computer forecast models are showing development for the first 7 days of May.

Evening, Drakoen.

In the extreme long range (well after the second week of May) just for "kicks" as Franklin likes to say, the GFS is showing a system off the NE coast of Florida. 0.1% chance of occuring, of course. Model forecasts this far out are absolutely worthless 99% of the time...

101. TerraNova 12:23 AM GMT on May 01, 2008 Hide this comment.
None of the reliable computer forecast models are showing development for the first 7 days of May.

Evening, Drakoen.

In the extreme long range (well after the second week of May) just for "kicks" as Franklin likes to say, the GFS is showing a system off the NE coast of Florida. 0.1% chance of occuring, of course. Model forecasts this far out are absolutely worthless 99% of the time...


lol. The GFS is starting the season and its not even May 1st yet. Thanks for that post though!
I hope the GFS is picking up on our rainy season kicking in here (2nd week in May would be within likely timeframe)
lol. The GFS is starting the season and its not even May 1st yet. Thanks for that post though!

Yep, definitely time to run for cover!

Good night all. Possible tornado outbreak tomorrow if cloud tops can break the cap.
Question, when we look at say a high pressure and let's say it says 1025mb - is what milibar level is that? 1000mb? What would 19,100 be at that level (1000mb) if it was measured at the 500 mb level? TIA
Nargis is reforming its alive!!
but still in a coma lol
why am I here???...I havent a clue what you folks are talking about...
104. TerraNova 1:05 AM GMT on May 01, 2008 Hide this comment.
lol. The GFS is starting the season and its not even May 1st yet. Thanks for that post though!

Yep, definitely time to run for cover!

Good night all. Possible tornado outbreak tomorrow if cloud tops can break the cap.


Actually now that I am looking at it. That looks to just be a baroclinic low.
I'm with you auburn I just watch the hurricanes
110. StormW 1:12 AM GMT on May 01, 2008
105. moonlightcowboy 9:06 PM EDT on April 30, 2008
Question, when we look at say a high pressure and let's say it says 1025mb - is what milibar level is that? 1000mb? What would 19,100 be at that level (1000mb) if it was measured at the 500 mb level? TIA


MLC,
What are you trying to figure?



Thats what I am wondering. I got confused just reading that.
I am confused just being here..but ya gotta learn somehow,,,right?
I'm sorry, phone.
I'm looking at an old surface chart from the 60's. The high pressure bar reads 19100. At the bottom of the chart it says 500mb hieght contours. Would that look differently (like we're accustomed to seeing like a 1025 mb high) if it were or could be converted to that same mb level?
I believe 1010mb at sea level is general point between high and low pressure. It is all relative though. For instance if a hurricane has a strong high close by, it will be stronger-have higher winds than storm with similar pressure with very weak high close by. The it is the relative difference between the high and low that determines actual strength of each. At 1000mb, the avg pressure is 1000mb. Generally anthing higher would be high, lower would be low. 850mb same thing. air has weight and that weight is measured by barometric pressure. Heights are avg pressure at that height. . 1000mb is how air weighs at certain height. There are often different systems at different heights like an ULL that shows up at 500mb but surface high that shows up at 1000mb. There are alot more factors like latitude and such things.
(This is the way I understand it to work. If any of the more informed people can tell me where I'm wrong please do. thanks:0)
I understand the mechanics of the aerosonde...just not the cane it flys into...I am here for the Bot...LOL
Hang on, I'll see if I can post it or link it. It looks antiquated, lol; but interesting.
118. Auburn there are things that confuse everybody here. We are all here to learn. There is nothing to be ashamed of in not understanding it all. This is such complex field of learning it takes a lifetime and there is still too much to learn.
It's kind of hard to read, very light. But if you'll look off the coast of FL the coutour bar reads 19,100. In the lower left hand corner of the chart it reads 500 mb height contours. Is this even pressure at all? If so, what would the mb pressure be at the 1000 mb level. TIA
...forgot to post the chart! LOL

Photobucket
118. When I answered MLC's question. It was really intended as a question to see if my understanding is correct. That is why I ask for more informed folks to show me where I'm wrong so I can better understand things. The best thing you can do to learn is ask questions.
Amen, Ivan...and God knows ya'll know I ask a tons of questions! But, you guys are great to help answer them. I've learned much, much from you all! Thanks, TONS!
I wonder if that is old map when they may have been changing from ft to MB so they were showing both??
Same here. I ask all the time. especially when somebody like StormW is here. I have studied tropical weather as hobby since '81. I have learned more in last year than in all the previous years combined.
Ivan, I have no clue; that's why I'm asking. I just thought simple algebra would calculate it, but when I do that, the pressure figure comes aobut to be like 38,000 - even if you divided that by 1000, it'd be 3800; so, that doesn't work. You may not can covert it that way. But, I just know it isn't at the 1000mb level like we get now. At least I don't think it is.
I was hoping to see apples to apples as far as pressure goes; but, when I saw th high number of 19,100, I knew that was wrong. So, I looked at the legend on the chart and it read 500 mb height contours. ???
19,100 feet would be in the 500 mb range; but, how does that tell me what the pressure is?
I just wanted to let y'all know that the Wundercast competition is now open for sign-ups!
Weather Underground senior meteorologist Shaun Tanner has been working hard the past few months with the team to put this together for everyone.

Here's the Wundercast blog link where you can get the sign-up information.

This should be a fun thing and is open to everyone.
Check it out and good luck!
I have no clue. Maybe measured in meters? maybe misprint?
I am confused now too. Mo is off lizard hunting so she can't explain it all to us.
132. beell
Does it mean the 500mb level is at 19,100 ft?
Ok, sorry, my bad. I've got it figured out. Duh! I was looking at the wrong map! Go figure! LOL

The pressure in that area is around on that map is around 1012mb. Now, that makes sense. I've just never seen a map (not that they are not still around and used) with 500mb height contours in any of the things I've used or seen here. Ya'll may look at that all the time. But, that was new to me. Sorry for the trouble gentlemen. Again, thanks, TONS!
I'm experimenting. I've found a way to look at archived surface maps, to hopefully discern some patterns. But, I had to download an old djvu file format program to open the file in order to see it. May not get far with my little knowledge! But, still, it's intriguing! lol
Have a good sleep, StormW, thanks. Thanks, all, for trying to help with that.

....geeeesh, I'm looking at old sfc maps and fascinated.....I have no life! LOL
Thanks Vort!!!
night Storm...thanks!
....geeeesh, I'm looking at old sfc maps and fascinated.....I have no life! LOL


LOL....you're rapidly turning into a weather geek Cowboy!
Hey Auburn!
Whatcha doin over here?
LOL, Vort. I need to go do some boot scootin' this weekend! ;P
I need to go do some boot scootin' this weekend! ;P

Yep.....that should straighten you out.
136. moonlightcowboy 1:57 AM GMT on May 01, 2008
Have a good sleep, StormW, thanks. Thanks, all, for trying to help with that.

....geeeesh, I'm looking at old sfc maps and fascinated.....I have no life! LOL



ROFL!!!
Vort, how does this contest work, I wanted to sign up to do Miami part and it gave me San Fran. Do we have to do all the cities? People trying to do Florida weather that have never lived here would be at huge disadvantage(b/c of the subtle differences in prevailing winds drastically altering our weather). I know little about the intricate details of west coast wx.
You have to do the forecast cities in the order that they have them set up.
So if you're not interested in doing a particular city then come back when the next one is up.

Or if you have questions.....just post them on the competition blog.
That's what that blog is for.

I hope that helps Ivan.
145. I just did. I will take a shot at all the cities though. it looks like fun game. I was just intent on doing Mia but the whole game sounds fun though. I am using my numbers from my preseason hurricane forecast too in that part of contest.
That's good Ivan.
Give it a whirl!
142. vortfix 10:04 PM EDT on April 30, 2008
I need to go do some boot scootin' this weekend! ;P


LOL

You aren't the only one . . .
Evening all :~)

Hope everyone is well.

Nice update Dr M. Love the Aerosonde! Still want one for myself! What a great toy that would be!

See everyone soon.
Jeff~ Thanks so much for the indepth aerosnode update.

Ran across a cloudsat of Nargis
Too funny Junkie I was just thinking of you.. The price of the aerosnode, it has come down a litte?
Hey SJ... Good to see you, again. TTYL
And vice versa Skye :~) Yep, I think it has come down, but I also think that price is for the plane only, not the equip and training on how to fly it. When I called, I think the whole shebang was around 250k. Good to see ya.

What's up sd77, hope all is well! Good to see you also.
Here we go - just in time to ruin somebody's summer
SW Florida
Monday, April 28, 2008
Harmful Algal Bloom Forecasting System
A harmful algal bloom was last identified in northern
Monroe County on April 8. No reports of impacts have been
received. No impacts are expected alongshore southwest
Florida today through Monday, May 5.
We all know that Hurricanes can be destructive. Hurricanes are also a powerful force that provides a necessary good for the earth. It may be a controversial statement, but possibly human life wouldn't have evolved as we have if earth had never experienced a hurricane.

We tend to think of hurricanes as destructive forces, but think of all the good they bring to our environment.

Hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean have helped stimulate the ocean's foodchain and increased biodiversity. After a hurricane has passed, the churning and upwelling often causes nutrients to rise to the ocean's surface, helping the phytoplankton to thrive. This is the base of the ocean's food chain. More complex creatures feed on the phytoplankton in a cycle. Is it possible that the Carribean and Gulf of Mexico ecosystems would suffer without annual hurricanes?

Is a Hurricane not nature's most efficient way to remove heat from the tropics and distribute that moisture and heat to other regions? What would the Gulf of Mexico, Carribean and Tropical Atlantic be without hurricanes? My bet is that there would be far less coral, warm summer waters would be destructive to some sealife and there would certainly be less biodiversity due to warm, relatively stagnant waters during the heat of summer.

I'm sure that hurricanes are responsible for spreading plant life diversity among the islands of the lesser and greater Antilles throughout history. Otherwise, some islands would tend to become relatively isolated in evolution.

Hurricanes are certainly good things. Powerful and weak ones are beneficial. That's why nature saw fit to create them in the first place. Otherwise, it would be an awful waste of energy... and nature has a tendency to utilize energy to regulate, recharge or reform itself.

Hurricanes can also be beneficial to coastal environments, estuaries and coastal flood plains too. The redistribution of nutrients, replenishment of soil and creation of new habitats can help wildlife to thrive in the wake of a hurricane.

Before this new season, we should all consider what life on earth would look like today without them. Chances are, we'd be still dragging our knuckles on the ground and picking nits out of our fur rather than using a keyboard right now.
Good post, TexasGulf. People seem to forget the benefits of a hurricane. Sure, there are downsides to a hurricane, as there is a downside to everything. But it's good to look at the benefits too.
Tropics in May: The Transition Month

I evaluated area (1) based on warm SSTs, high humidity, low wind shear, the presence of the ITCZ and an anticyclone/ridge aloft.

I evaluated area (2) based the baroclinic and blocking environment.


Figure 5. Areas that are forecasted to appear conducive for the potential development of tropical and/or subtropical systems during the period May 1 to May 15 2008. Any thing developing would take a track similar to the ones presented here.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
8:30 AM IST May 1, 2008

Subject: Very Severe Cyclonic storm “NARGIS” over westcentral and adjoining eastcentral Bay of Bengal.

The very severe cyclonic storm “NARGIS” over westcentral and adjoining east central Bay of Bengal moved eastwards and lay centred at 0830 IST over eastcentral and adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal near lat. 15.5º N and long. 89.0º E, about 650 km southwest of Sandoway (Myanmar).

The system is likely to intensify further and move in a east-northeasterly direction and cross Myanmar coast between 16ºN and 18ºN around nightime tomorrow.

Under its influence, rain/thundershower is likely at many places with isolated heavy falls over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 48 hours.

Squally wind speed reaching 45-55 km/h is likely over Andaman Islands and adjoining sea areas during next 48 hours. Sea condition will be rough to very rough around Andaman Islands.

Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.
In your April 23rd Blog you talked about March as the hottest month on record and seemed to indicate that things were getting hotter. I saw this on another site and am trying to square it all up.
"This has been a winter of record cold and record snowfalls. The four major agencies tracking Earth's temperature, including NASA's Goddard Institute, report the earth cooled 0.7C in 2007, the fastest decline in the age of instrumentation, putting us back to where the Earth was in 1930.

Help Please
Take a look at Nargis you can see it was having trouble with dry air it really fell apart
Link
456, May has similar tracks as late November. When the tropical season gets going there is usually an airmass change here in S. Florida. That hasn't happened yet. When our prevailing winds come around from southerly direction and it goes from warm to hot(seemingly in 1 day) and humidity starts gradually rising then were getting close. We have had northerly/northeasterly flow and coolish(for us) temps yet. When the last front stalls in the Florida straights, Cuba and into western Carrib, watch it's tail. (That is possible next week)
156. TexasGulf 12:26 AM EDT on May 01, 2008

Quite Brilliant.......
156, hurricanes also remove old growth and trees that are old or diseased. That furthers the cleansing effect Hurricanes have on the Environment, not to mention that without hurricanes, the S.E USA would be a desert 6 months out of the year.(like last year)
165. Ivansrvivr 8:32 AM EDT on May 01, 2008
156, hurricanes also remove old growth and trees that are old or diseased. That furthers the cleansing effect Hurricanes have on the Environment, not to mention that without hurricanes, the S.E USA would be a desert 6 months out of the year.(like last year)


Good Morning....We talked about this a few months ago; The only reason that Hurricanes are a problem for "humans" is because we have built homes and overdeveloped in places (on the coastal shorelines) meant to be Mother Nature's preserve........Should give all of us (purposely living and building in harms way and complaining about it every year when the season hits) some pause............
Good morning all. Just wanted to bring light to a small, but rather interesting feature that caught my eye on satellite. It stands very little ( I mean very little) chance for development, but it will be fun to watch.

NHC Excerpt
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW APPEARS TO BE FORMING NEAR
22N70W JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ARE FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 68W AND 71W.

Satellite Image
Photobucket"
Photobucket"
Morning, all.
Good to see Hurricanes getting some positive press. Thanks Texasgulf !
You guys need to sell the idea to your Insurance brokers. With no hurricanes, no life. No life, no clients. No clients no insurance co. No co., they would all be out of work.
Not sure about your success in this though. Sounds kind of obscure. You may need a good "spinner" on this one. LOL
Just wanted to respond to the TexasGulf post. That was a terrific post that sheds light upon the most important affects hurricanes have on the environment. Humans are the only species on this planet that do not appreciate hurricanes and suffer the most from them. Its truly amazing what methods Mother Nature will invoke in order to clean up itself: hurricanes, flooding, wildfires, etc. Rather effective I would have to say. Just goes to show that Mother Nature will always be more powerful than humans who supposedly dominate this planet.
Back to work for me.
peace.
Just checked on the latest with Nargis in the Indian Ocean. It has undergone some rather deep strengthening and reorganization overnight with some intense convection finally wrapping around the eastern semicircle. There has been a very nice, small eye developing over the past several hours as this storm continues to strengthen and aim for Myanmar.

Latest IR Image (via RAMSDIS)
....but before I go.

Research presented this week, shows that global warming will not increase over the next 20 yrs. or so.

BBC world news. .
161. jlester343 10:48 AM GMT on May 01, 2008
In your April 23rd Blog you talked about March as the hottest month on record and seemed to indicate that things were getting hotter. I saw this on another site and am trying to square it all up.
"This has been a winter of record cold and record snowfalls. The four major agencies tracking Earth's temperature, including NASA's Goddard Institute, report the earth cooled 0.7C in 2007, the fastest decline in the age of instrumentation, putting us back to where the Earth was in 1930.



For jlester, post 161, one of Dr. Master's most recent blogs has a graphic for global temperature anomalies for March 2008. The U.S. in fact did show up as cooler than average for the month, by a wide factor in some locations, but we were virtually the only place on the globe at the time besides South Africa showing a pronounced cold trend. The rest of the globe in fact appeared warmer than average. Russia/Siberia, in fact, stood out as astonishingly warm for the second year in a row.
I was looking for something else this morning and ran across this information.
Thought it might be of interest to those that were discussing heat transport from the tropics.
Pretty basic stuff but might be of interest.
And a good morning and happy May first to all.
The SPC has upgraded to a moderate severe threat area this morning:



Hurricanes have been extremely important in human history. They have played a role in building or destroying empires and restoring "old growth" communities by allowing for new opportunities. In many cases, destuction occurs but the communities rebuild stronger and are revitalized afterward.

Would Japan be a province of China today without a hurricane? Kublai Khan planned to invade Japan in 1281. He had 3,500 ships and 100,000 troops, which were poised to conquer the Japanese forces. A hurricane destoyed the fleet on July 30, 1281 which wrecked every ship and killed all of the 100,000 troops. Kublai Khan never sent forces against Japan again. Today, we have Suzuki motorcycles, Honda & Toyota cars and Aiwa, Onkyo and Mitsubishi electronics.

Kublai Khan never sent forces against Japan again. Today, we have Suzuki motorcycles, Honda & Toyota cars and Aiwa, Onkyo and Mitsubishi electronics.........Going a little to far Gulf?; from Canes to Motorcycles?..........Just Kidding (well maybe)...LOL

For jlester, post 161, one of Dr. Master's most recent blogs has a graphic for global temperature anomalies for March 2008. The U.S. in fact did show up as cooler than average for the month, by a wide factor in some locations, but we were virtually the only place on the globe at the time besides South Africa showing a pronounced cold trend. The rest of the globe in fact appeared warmer than average. Russia/Siberia, in fact, stood out as astonishingly warm for the second year in a row.

Correct. Furthermore, March 2008 was warmer than March 2007; see the lower right graph (also, it wasn't the hottest month on record, just over land, but the second hottest overall, despite the oceans being only the 13th warmest on record, as the land warmth was so extreme; 2007 was also the same way, also the warmest on record for land and second warmest globally). Note also that temperatures didn't really drop sharply until the very end of 2007; the rise early this year was just as dramatic, if even more so:



Also, this site forecasts the hottest summer on record for the Northern Hemisphere and the second hottest year on record (he was correct about 2007 being the hottest year on record for the Northern Hemisphere, the cooling was due to La Nina, which is now RIP, and mostly in the oceans, consistent with a La Nina, aside from January when land temperatures were also cooler).

SUMMER PROJECTION finally in...

Enough sun disk observations (more than 500) justify the following conclusion:

Summer 2008, will be hottest in history for the Northern Hemisphere. 2008 2nd hottest year in History for the Northern Hemisphere, despite a very cold surface start....
As far as the U A V will cost the same to teach someone to fly it as a commercial aircraft.

They wouldn't dare make it cheeper cause that might create a lul in commercial aircraft training.IF you were a manager and you had a choice of sending a man versus a machine to do your dirty work ;would you perfer a machine over men ?
Personally I wouldn't.However the so called false excuse for sending a U A V over a man is ussually about the pro life issue .Machines can't die.
these days they take all the fun out of living .Half the fun is danger .Thisis why people go snow boarding off cliffs and jump out of airplanes ,for the thrill of it all .
By the way incase you didn't know the forum subject today is about the U A V .not the weather . lul in Sun spot activty is maybe going to make the tropical interesting to say the least in the next few years as the earth does her cooling lol see you guy's later .
156. TexasGulf 12:26 AM EDT
We all know that Hurricanes can be destructive. Hurricanes are also a powerful force that provides a necessary good for the earth.

Hurricanes also "flush the commode".
Hurricanes also "flush the commode".

I disagree. Port Arthur, Tx and Vidor, Tx are still there after hurricane Rita. ;>)
hey Taz. Morning all..theres an article that promted me to look into the earthquakes that you speak of...it looks like theres something brewing, alright. Theres even strange seismic activity in the Midwest and Alaska is more active, too.

Earthquake article

183. TexasGulf 2:01 PM GMT on May 01, 2008
Hurricanes also "flush the commode".

I disagree. Port Arthur, Tx and Vidor, Tx are still there after hurricane Rita. ;>)


Is there something wrong with that???
181 dewfree - It's "the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself."
182 - me - Maybe the k brevis just responded to the same conditions that made for an active season /landfalling tracks.
183 texasgulf - that's mean (_!_)
If another hurricane hits Port Arthur this year, watch gas and airfare spike 10 fold!
Enough sun disk observations (more than 500) justify the following conclusion:

Summer 2008, will be hottest in history for the Northern Hemisphere. 2008 2nd hottest year in History for the Northern Hemisphere, despite a very cold surface start....


LOL. Yeah right. Lakes are still frozen in Minnesota and it's May.
Southern Indiana had a 3.3 earthquake at 12:30am last night. They have had several aftershocks from the one a couple of weeks ago, but seems things have got very active.
Yellowstone Cauldron is waking up.

Its overdue,last eruption there was 600,000 years ago.



LakeShadow i am not geting all of this but i do no if this keeps going we could have a 7.0 soon
LOL. Yeah right. Lakes are still frozen in Minnesota and it's May.

LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Second warmest March on record; will La Nina be gone by hurricane season?
Posted by: JeffMasters, 2:42 PM EDT on April 23, 2008

March 2008 was the 2nd warmest March for the the globe on record, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. Over the Northern Hemisphere, and over all of the globe's land areas, March 2008 was the warmest March in the 128-year global record.



You know better than that... local weather has nothing to do with global weather ROTFLMAO! Perhaps all of the people dying in heat waves in India right now are victims of global warming? Not! (just as cold weather in Minnesota says nothing about global warming not happening) Making statements like that just shows that you are biased and think that global waming means that temperatures must only warm and natural cycles are no longer occurring (that is why they always look at trends over decades and only for the globe, not a city, state, or country - some regional areas can actually even cool over the same period).
Didn't Dr. Masters post something about the permafrost thawing out in Siberia thus releasing a massive amount of CO2 into the atmosphere? I thought I remember reading a post of this a few years back.

Lets hope we get some tropical moisure in Florida & Georgia to fill up those resevoirs. Prefereably in the form of Tropical Depressions & Tropical Storms.
Should we be on this web site that was founded by guys like Bill Ayers?
Has anybody seen all the moisture and cloud cover over Africa, including the Sahara? It looks like there may be some showers over the desert. Not good news if we want dust to disrupt systems.
Nargis is a Cat 4 now according to this:

WWIO20 KNES 011455

A. 01B (NARGIS)

B. 01/1430Z

C. 15.8N

D. 91.1E

E. ONE/MET-7

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SSMI/AMSRE/AMSU

H. REMARKS...B PINHOLE EYE EMBEDDED IN CMG WITH CDG SURROUNDING RING
RESULTS IN DT=6.5. MET=5.5 FOR RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM. PT AGREES. FT
BASED ON CONSTRAINTS
.

198. JRRP
CCH that means that we will see less SAL this huracan season
Congrats Storm. Great to see that people truly appreciate your knowledge, besides here on Wunderground. Good luck with the sessions.

Storm, just was wondering if you had seen my post refering to Africa? What do you think?
Congratulations StormW. I always look forward to your comments and observations on this site. I think they got a deal.


The Storm Prediction Center has issued a moderate risk for severe thunderstorms. The moderate risk area encompases most of South east Kansas, and including the cities of Wichita ad Emporia.

Analysis:

The 12UTC Skew T plot out of Topeka shows the following important values:
EHI: 1.9 (F2 - F3 Tornadoes Possible)
Lifted Index: -3.0 (Marginal Instability)
SWEAT Index: 422.9 (Tornadoes Possible)
CAPE: 484.2 J/kg (Positive)
Supercell Potential: 79.4 pct
SR Helicity: 403.1 (Tornadoes Possible)
Bulk Richardson Number: 43.1 (Supercells Favorable)
Thompson Index: 17.3 (low)

Keep in mind that 1) Topeka is north of the moderate risk area, and 2) Peak heating has not yet occured. Peak heating is the time in which these values usually skyrocket, and unfortunetly it is very hard to access Skew T's other than 00z and 12z.

Convective inhibition is unavaliable. A strong CAP is in place, however, but I believe (and this time I'm almost sure of) that forcing, temperatures now climbing into the 80's, and dew points into the 60's will break the cap sometime later this afternoon into this evening.

However, some models are indicating that the dry line may not end up in a position optimal for tornadic activity. As the LLJ intensifies we need to see if this dry line set up plays out or not. In any case, large hail is very likely and people living in these areas need to be on the lookout for a very active evening.
Taz, earthquake movements in a certain area could be a sign of two things: the Earth's movement building to a larger movement, like a spring being tightened or the crusts already moving in small increments therefore reducing a big shove.

Gulf, good post. I agree with the hurricanes as a force for the good of our planet. We have brought on a lot of what happens. People who know that hurricanes are prone in a certain area have still built homes there. Rivers and streams that normally flush into the sea have been corralled by dikes, concrete walls and restricted, changing the coastline. By dredging, chemical runoff, pollution and our reshaping canals for the passage of large ships we've taken away many of the wetland, salt grass, swamp lands and sand that once stood in the way of a storm surge. The majority of damage is not the hurricane, it's decisions we have made to live in harms way and not build to stand up to weather conditions. And on that note, if I move into a part of the country where tornadoes are often seen, I think I would build an underground home. :) I'm all for cave living.
Nice shot of Nargis from Operational Significant Event Imagery:


Photobucket
197. StormW 11:50 AM CDT on May 01, 2008
I have just excepted the offer, and will be giving Hurricane Season updates and my own forecasts, etc. for 6 Monday afternoons starting June 16 through July 21. I will be paid as a contractor/consultant.


Congrats, StormW! You just keep getting good calls - WTG!

Looks like La Nina has gone, heh? Negative NA0...things don't look like they're shaping up so nicely for the CONUS?
Link

NRO article on AGW
Good photograph on NOAA 05/01/2008 12:30 UTC of Tropical Cyclone Nargis... but their description doesn't make sense.

"Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Nargis was located near 15.9N 90.7E approximately 320nm west of Yangon, Myanmar at 01/1200 UTC. Nargis was moving east at 9 knots with maximum sustained winds of 90 knots (104 mph) and gusts to 110 knots (127 mph)."

According to Saffir/Simpson scale, Cat-2 has winds from 96-110 mph. Cat-4 has winds from 131-155 mph. Did NOAA make a mistake in the description, or am I missing something here?
TXgulf, I think (not sure) in that neck of the woods that they use the hurricane scale that comes from the Austrailian BOM - Board of Meteorology. LINK
211. StormW 12:59 PM CDT on May 01, 2008
Yeah...doesn't sound like what we want to hear.


....uuuuugggghhh! When do you think things will crank up? Soon into, or later in the season?
Thanks, StormW.
Thanks, StormW. I'll be looking forward to your daily updates.

Just something a little extra - thought you might like to see one of the old maps I ran across last night. It's from August 17, 1969. Notice the (met's) handwriting at the bottom. It says, "later this day Camille down to 901mb, 190mph winds."

Photobucket

I found a couple of others, too. One says some stuff about returning home from his honeymoon, another talks about a heatwave in Montana(I think the high that day was 105 maybe).

(a little hurricane posterity) lol
When will they retire Hurricane names ??
193. GainesvilleGator 4:19 PM GMT on May 01, 2008
Didn't Dr. Masters post something about the permafrost thawing out in Siberia thus releasing a massive amount of CO2 into the atmosphere? I thought I remember reading a post of this a few years back.

Lets hope we get some tropical moisure in Florida & Georgia to fill up those resevoirs. Prefereably in the form of Tropical Depressions & Tropical Storms.


Yes nothing more then a Tropical Storm is welcome. Unfortunately, We probably will get more then what we bargained for.
217. cycloone 6:38 PM GMT on May 01, 2008
When will they retire Hurricane names ??


Apparentally when another Katrina rolls through the U.S.
217. cycloone 6:38 PM GMT on May 01, 2008
When will they retire Hurricane names ??

they not going to retire any Hurricane names this year
I'm a very casual observer, but for what it's worth, there seem to have been a surprising number of tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean in last month or so. It would be great to see a post from Dr. Masters and the experts on this. It looks like most of the cyclones have not made landfall, but Nargis is predicted to hit Myanmar and maybe Bangladesh at Category 1. A hard hit for a poor countries.


...Nargis
It appears that Nargis will be upgraded to 115 mph this afternoon.

sm20080501.1900.meteo7.x.ir1km_bw.01BNARGIS.100kts-948mb-158N-917E.100pc.jpg
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA 330 PM PDT WED APR 30 2008 ...EXTREMELY DRY APRIL FOR SACRAMENTO...STOCKTON...AND MODESTO.... WHILE MOST OF INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS EXPERIENCED A VERY DRY APRIL...IN SACRAMENTO...STOCKTON...AND MODESTO IT HAS BEEN THE DRIEST YEAR SINCE 1949. AT THE SACRAMENTO CITY LOCATION ONLY ONE HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH FELL THIS MONTH. THE RECORD FOR THE CITY IS A TRACE SET BACK IN 1949 AND PREVIOUS YEARS. STOCKTON ALSO ONLY RECEIVED ONE HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH THIS MONTH. THE RECORD IS NO PRECIPITATION...AGAIN SET BACK IN 1949. MODESTO RECEIVED JUST A TRACE OF RAIN THIS MONTH. THE RECORD IS NO PRECIPITATION...ONCE AGAIN SET IN 1949
LOL did they came back from the dead?

: Tropical Storm Neoguri Tropical Cyclone Rosie Tropical Cyclone Durga Tropical Cyclone Nargis
LOL did they came back from the dead?

: Tropical Storm Neoguri Tropical Cyclone Rosie Tropical Cyclone Durga Tropical Cyclone Nargis
Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC)TC NARGIS Link
It looks like California is going to be in for a very rough fire season
congrats Storm,based on your input here,its well deserved.
Congrats StormW. If there is anyone here that deserves that spot it is you. This upcoming season has several early hints of being similar to 04. (Cold shiver went down my back as I thought back to 04)
A couple of thoughts this afternoon!

As of now with cooler sst's in several areas across the atlantic basin i dont see a super active season number wise but rather on the normal side with numbers around 13/7/3.Since we are still in a positive AMO phase, I do not think Atlantic Ocean SST anomalies will to much of a negative factor this season.Its worth bringing up the fact that sst's could warm rather quickly futher more then expected during the next 3 months.The way I expect the synoptic weather pattern to play along after looking at the 12-14 ENSO analog landfall years as ive stated previously the eastcoast areas from southern florida to north carolina and even areas futher up north need to be on the look out this season.We should see Neutral to weak la nina conditions through the summer with a slight possibility of a weak nino developing later in the year.
23, the Nina has pulled a disappearing act on us. I doubt it will return as whole Pacific has been warming and SOI keeps dropping. I see a neutral early transitioning to nino by late season. The question is how fast will transition take place, and how strong will nino be if at all???
23, your 13/7/3 and my 12/7/4 are fairly close.
SSMI/AMSRE-derived Total Precipitable Water - Indian Ocean LOOP

...wow, the convection with Nargis really pops in one spot on its way to landfall.
Here's bom's lastest update!

Summary: La Nina Pattern fades; Pacific now generally neutral.

READ HERE
23.I read it earlier, but thanks. the big question now is does this rapid pacific warming just stop or continue. We have gone from strongest Nina to neutral in 2 months. Personally I think the warming will slow quite a bit from here on but if the warming doesnt hit the brakes soon, the whole picture changes.
WU just made a strange reposting of Rosie, Durga, and Neoguri. Odd but nice to see previos storms
It's very horrifying to know that this season could be like 2004, Considering as a Florida resident that 4 of the 8 landfalls on the U.S. were in Florida....
Now the NRL site has Nargis up to 125 mph.

sm20080501.2000.meteo7.x.ir1km_bw.01BNARGIS.110kts-941mb-158N-917E.100pc.jpg
National Hurricane Preparedness Week Link



History teaches that a lack of hurricane awareness and preparation are common threads among all major hurricane disasters. By knowing your vulnerability and what actions you should take, you can reduce the effects of a hurricane disaster. Hurricane Preparedness Week during 2008 will be held May 25th through May 31st.
Good afternoon everyone!
238. Ivansrvivr 3:05 PM CDT on May 01, 2008 Personally I think the warming will slow quite a bit from here on but if the warming doesnt hit the brakes soon, the whole picture changes.


If one were to go strictly by ENSO historical values alone, from cooling to neutral to late warming conditions, the seemingly more fitting years with those similarities are 1951, 1968, or possibly 1986, 1994 and 2004. Those season scenarios here.

But, if Ivan's statement were to come true and the warming continues in the fast pattern it has in the last couple of months, then, it could resemble ENSO years like 1957, 1965 and 1972.

1957 saw only six names storms, one hurricane, one major, Audrey, landfalling on the TX/LA coast.

1965
saw only five named storms, one hurricane, one major, Betsy, land-falling in LA

1972
saw only seven named storms, three hurricanes, no major with landfalls in Maine, SC and the "big bend" area of FL and the FL panhandle.

Of course, that would mean good news - a less active season, really lower than normal if the pattern followed those years. Seems waters are warming quicker in the Pac faster than they are in the tAtl; but, that's changing, too. So, I guess we stilll wait, and we'll see!
with this year now being neutral my forcast is for 28 name storms this like 2005

Hey, Drakoen, Pat and all!
Hey,MLC..breezy here.
Hey, TAZ! I sure hope not! BAD news, that would be! Whew!
I expect an active season but more like 2004 or 2003
No quickscat data...for now. No immediate worry yet, though, about the satellite itself (1997 launch with a 3 year design life) as the SAFS is a file server. It probably will not be available for a few days.

From email:
"
*Details of the Outage:

*ESPC is not receiving QUIKSCAT data. The following msg was received from
the flight controller at the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space
Science in Boulder, CO:

The SAFS prime is down right now.

*Data Affected by the Outage:

*Scatterometer data* *

*Date and Time of the Outage:

*5/1/2008, 1617 UTC, 1216 P.M.* *EDT

*Length of the Outage:

*Until further notice* *
"
I'm trying to finish my blog for you guys today. There is so much stuff I wrote I had to save it in Microsoft Word yesterday and continue today....
251. Drakoen 3:40 PM CDT on May 01, 2008
I'm trying to finish my blog for you guys today. There is so much stuff I wrote I had to save it in Microsoft Word yesterday and continue today....


....whao, Drakoen! That sounds serious! But, looking forward to it!
252. moonlightcowboy 8:44 PM GMT on May 01, 2008
251. Drakoen 3:40 PM CDT on May 01, 2008
I'm trying to finish my blog for you guys today. There is so much stuff I wrote I had to save it in Microsoft Word yesterday and continue today....

....whao, Drakoen! That sounds serious! But, looking forward to it!


The good news is that I finished more than half of it. I have 3 more topics left to cover and I will be able to release when I have seen and my predictions.
245. Tazmanian 8:28 PM GMT on May 01, 2008
with this year now being neutral my forcast is for 28 name storms this like 2005


I don't think we will get quite that many storms...Maybe a little more then what the current forecast calls for, ONLY if we stay in Neutral and dont switch to El nino to quickly, And that is also if conditions fall into place the right way, I say about 17-18 named storms.
244. moonlightcowboy 8:26 PM GMT on May 01, 2008
238. Ivansrvivr 3:05 PM CDT on May 01, 2008 Personally I think the warming will slow quite a bit from here on but if the warming doesnt hit the brakes soon, the whole picture changes.


If one were to go strictly by ENSO historical values alone, from cooling to neutral to late warming conditions, the seemingly more fitting years with those similarities are 1951, 1968, or possibly 1986, 1994 and 2004. Those season scenarios here


2004 out of those for years would seem like the most fittings, As the other 3 of those years were before the "Active Hurricane Period" began.
T.C. Nargis is packing quite a punch today, eh?

All the best of luck to anyone in its path.

255. CaneAddict 9:11 PM GMT on May 01, 2008
244. moonlightcowboy 8:26 PM GMT on May 01, 2008
238. Ivansrvivr 3:05 PM CDT on May 01, 2008 Personally I think the warming will slow quite a bit from here on but if the warming doesnt hit the brakes soon, the whole picture changes.


If one were to go strictly by ENSO historical values alone, from cooling to neutral to late warming conditions, the seemingly more fitting years with those similarities are 1951, 1968, or possibly 1986, 1994 and 2004. Those season scenarios here

2004 out of those for years would seem like the most fittings, As the other 3 of those years were before the "Active Hurricane Period" began


Also that year would seem to be the best comparison due to it being within the Active Hurricane Period, If you notice for example Taz's post with the 4 La nina years, 4 El nino years and the 4 Neutral years they were all years AFTER the "Active Hurricane Period" began, Which goes to tell me the best comparing would be with years AFTER the active hurricane period when it comes to numbers and such.
CA, I'm aware of the active period, but thanks for the reminder. My post said, "If one were to go strictly by ENSO historical values alone..."
Well if the GFS is correct (and it wont be) than well be set up for the Cape Verde season by May 17.

New blog, StormW and Stormchaser.
Does anyone know in what part of Burma Chevron Oil has its platforms?

I wonder if T.C. Nargis will disrupt production.

I was very sad to read this today about Chevron in Burma:
http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/050108C.shtml
good evening all
Greeting and salutations, earthling 456.
hello everone not long till the 08 season will start the last to years have been good season to me after all im here in mississippi and we all remember katrina here . i think the 08 season should be another season like 06&07 the weather pattern have channged a little . looks like the bermuda is not going to be there . also looks like this season going to start off slow also. but to me when it does keep your eye on the carri. i think our first name storm will come from there this year like ever year i make my forcast for the season the first of march and this year im going with 15 name storms 10 hurri. & 3 maj hurri. im sticking with the gom seeing alot more this year west fl. and tex. geating a maj. hurri. less all pull togather and hope this season will be a safe one. c u all on my next posting .
tommy
test