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Postcards from the Orlando Hurricane Conference

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:41 PM GMT on April 28, 2008

I'm in Orlando this week for the 28th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, sponsored by the American Meteorological Society. The conference, held once every two years, brings together the world's experts on hurricane science. A few snapshots from this morning's talks:

HWRF hurricane model improvements for 2008
Naomi Surgi of NOAA oulined the progress with the new HWRF model, which debuted last year. The HWRF model outperformed the GFDL model in the Atlantic last year for forecasting hurricane tracks. The GFDL had consistently been the best-performing model for forecasting hurricane tracks in recent years, so this is good news. The HWRF model is intended to eventually replace the GFDL model. However, neither the HWRF or GFDL model performed as well as the GFS model last year, so there is room for the HWRF to improve. New for 2008 for the HWRF model is the ability to include real-time Doppler radar data from the NOAA P-3 hurricane hunter aircraft for initialization of the model. There are also upgrades to the equations governing the model's physics, plus improvements in how the model is initialized. These improvements should make for much improved intensity forecasts beyond 48 hours, Dr. Surgi showed. That's good news, because intensity forecasting has shown very little improvement over the past 15 years, despite a near doubling in the improvement in track forecasts.

Dust from Africa
Amato Evan of the University of Wisconsin showed that dust blowing off the coast of Africa has a very strong impact on Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Atlantic, amounting to 0.1°C to 1.0°C annually. Dr. Evan showed that most of the warming of tropical Atlantic SSTs in recent years can be explained by variations in the amount of dust coming off the coast of Africa. In particular, 2005 had very little dust, resulting in unusually high SSTs that help lead to the record breaking Hurricane Season of 2005, with its record 28 named storms.

Influence of Gulf Stream Loop Current on Katrina's intensity
Hurricane Katrina explosively deepened when it passed over an unusually far northern extension of the warm Gulf of Mexico Loop Current, and a Warm Core Eddy that had broken off from the Loop Current. Richard Yablonsky and Isaac Ginis of the University of Rhode Island showed that if the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current had been in its normal position, and no Warm Core Eddy had been present, Katrina would have had a pressure more than 20 mb higher and maximum sustained winds at least 20 mph lower. The study was done using the GFDL model.

I'll have more postcards from the Orlando hurricane conference every day this week. One other highlight from this morning: seeing the 5-year old daughter of one the participants entertain herself by setting up a little diorama complete with ponies, unicorns, and fairies on the floor outside of the main session this morning. Who needs Disney World to entertain a kid in Orlando!

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the postcard Dr. Masters.
Interesting news regarding the HWRF!
Looking forward to your next postcard already.
Thanks, Dr. Masters. Look forward to the pictures.

I'm glad you mentioned the loop and how Katrina exploded under those conditions. I just made this post about that.

This chart shows the sea surface heights or just how deep the warm water loop current is coming out of the Caribbean into the GOM. When we talk about TCHP (warm, deep waters), similarly the loop current is like that. These strong, fast moving currents carry this warm water into the GOM; then, loops and exits between FL and Cuba into the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. Often, it spins off warm eddys (circles of floating warm water) that will spin around in the rest of the GOM, adding to the heat potential throughout the Gulf.

The thing is as the loop current comes into the GOM, the warm water (above the already warm, deep water) becomes even deeper - upwards of 20-30 inches higher than the surrounding water. And, it usually covers quite a large area of the GOM, too. The deep reds in the charts below indicate heights of near 30 inches above the mean water levels in the GOM. It's no wonder storms, like Katrina (and others) explode when they travel over these waters.

Photobucket

Pictured below are the ssh conditions just prior to Katrina coming thru the GOM. Katrina went from a Cat 3 storm to a Cat 5 storm in just nine hours because of these warm, deep loop current waters.

Photobucket

Loop eddys that have spun off are anti-cyclonic and in turn they spin off cyclonic, smaller eddys - many of which become real marine life magnets. SSH's are used to monitor marine life migrations, fishing, etc. The oil companies even monitor these strong currents for transporting rigs across the GOM, etc, avoiding the more transient waters of the eddys and the loop, saving them lots of time and hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Thanks Dr. Masters, enjoy the rest of your trip!


Hey guys take a look at some of these cloud tops in the southern semi-circle of cyclone Nargis.



This storm has the potential to become a very destructive and powerful cyclone as it moves northeast towards Burma.
"Dr. Evan showed that most of the warming of tropical Atlantic SSTs in recent years can be explained by variations in the amount of dust coming off the coast of Africa. In particular, 2005 had very little dust, resulting in unusually high SSTs that help lead to the record breaking Hurricane Season of 2005"

Which lead to the record breaking hysteria blaming corals bleaching on global warming.
Very interesting post Dr. Masters. Enjoy your time in Orlando. I love living here.
MODIS File Image African Dust

New for 2008 for the HWRF model is the ability to include real-time Doppler radar data from the NOAA P-3 hurricane hunter aircraft for initialization of the model.

- Wow, that should really be interesting!
Corals from the Cape Verde Islands and the Gulf of Guinea:
Skeletal Records of Climate and African Dust


WORK TO BE COMPLETED:Link

We propose to reconstruct the past temporal variability and patterns of large scale tropical Atlantic SST, using long-lived Atlantic corals. This will be instrumental to better understand West African climate variability by exploring the statistical relationships between SST pattern variabilities, ITCZ, land climate, and corals. In particular, we wish to see how well the coral proxy indices replicate the relationships seen in the more conventional SST data sets.
Thanks Dr. M; "real time" data (with on-site Doppler readings) certainly seems to be one of the nexus factors in being able to help forecast short-term storm intensity and track.....Now let's hope that NOAA/NHC is given enough monies to keep a sufficient/working fleet in the air (or the unmanned drones that have also been talked about recently)during H-Season.....
Hey, StormW!

Are they just using the radar and data for initialization of the model, or will we also be able to actually see the radar?
Radar Image of Hurricane Audrey June 27,1957




Radar Image of Hurricane Rita Sept 2005


Thanks, StormW. It sure would be nice to be able to see the radar, too. Even if it's for just a short period of time.

- Hey, Pat. Nice historical of Audrey! Amazing older radar shot. Rita and her look like twins, same position, etc.
looking at the schedule thats a pretty intense conference.
- Jp, hey. Excellent points!

- JFL, yes, the conference does look intense and interesting. Impacts of Saharan Dust Acting as CCN on the Evolution of an Idealized Tropical Cyclone

The starting time of rapid storm intensification and intensity divergence among simulations with various CCN concentrations were 24 hours earlier in the strong vortex experiments compared to the weak vortex ones.


....interesting stuff! The Doc should have some great post"cards" this week!

I'm out for a while. Ya'll, all, have a GR8 Monday!

There you go with that trivia again JP.
Coulda,woulda..shoulda...

Impacts were not the rule in 2007.

A very good thing.

Deaths were minimal..or unreported Link.

Sat Loop Hurricane Dean 2007 Link


Thanks Dr. Masters
what is this system off the coast of the eastern seaboard of the US? is it a mid level low with the possible it of working down to the service? although the sst in the area is only marginal ,vertical wind shear does not allow anything to develop in this immediate area
The Severe Cyclonic Storm Nargis [986 hPa] over southwest and adjoining southeast and west central Bay of Bengal remains practically stationary and lays as of 12:00 PM UTC near 13.0N 85.5E or about 550 kms east of Chennai.

Current Dvorak Intensity is 3.5. Maximum 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 55 knots with an estimated central pressure of 986 hPa.

Sea condition is very high around the system's center. Satellite imagery shows broken to solid intense convective clouds between 10.5 to 14.5N and 82.0 to 87.0E in association with the system.

Forecast: The system is likely to intensify further and move slowly in a north-northwesterly direction slowly for some time and thereafter, it is likely to move northeastwards. Forecast Dvorak Intensity in 25 hours is 4.5.
17. jphurricane2006 asked:

"an intersting question here lol, maybe someone knows of a way to find out

ok here we go:

What is the one set of coordinates over the Atlantic basin that has seen the passage of most tropical systems?"


Are you trying to get us back into a Hebert Box discussion?
Given the topic, and all of the media hoopla about Katrina (still!), I'm surprised that this event didn't happen in New Orleans...
Here's a question to pass the time with. How many people are still living in FEMA trailers?
25. jphurricane2006 1:50 PM EDT on April 28, 2008
um no hcu, it was just a question


A very messy proposition to try to answer; I think you would have to "overlay" all of the accurate storm tracks for the last several decades over the Atlantic basin, and, try to figure out the general vicinity/coordinates where the most lines intersect.....Could potentially end up being in the general vicinity of a number places (I would guess either a) approching the Caribbean during the CV season, or, b) somewhere "inside and below" DR/Cuba/PR in the Caribbean, or c) perhaps in/near the Florida Straits.......).....
as of now, there are 8,053 FEMA trailers in use in Mississippi
A previous comment on the last post. I am hoping to get some feedback on this if anyone knows anything regarding it.

Opinions welcome too!

In reference to the comments below about SST's.

Wouldn't the fact that the MS river is at it's highest level in nearly a decade have some affect on the SST's in the northern Gulf? It's an enourmous amount of water spilling out, and not just from the mouth of the river.

The Bonnet Carre Spillway was opened north of New Orleans and is allowing cold water from the river to spill into Lake Ponchartrain, which flows into the Gulf. Not only that but the Atchafalaya, which spills into the Gulf is also taking on about 30% of the MS River flow.

Wouldnt this have some, if not a slight, affect on SST's in the northern Gulf, mainly in and around the LA coast?

The last time the river was this high was in 1997. If someone could get a SST map from Spring of 97 (around the time the river was high) that might make for a good comparison to now.

Side Note: I know the MS river wouldnt have an affect on SST's in the Carribbean, I'm just talking the northern Gulf rim closer to land areas.
The River Water is colder annually this time of year from Snow melt and the regular spring melt overall. But the Loop current which is fed from deep water currents is not directly affected by the constant mean flow .Its just part of the natural cycle.


GOM 120 Hour Water Surface Temperature Forecast Model Link
31. Patrap 6:21 PM GMT on April 28, 2008
The River Water is colder annually this time of year from Snow melt and the regular spring melt overall. But the Loop current which is fed from deep water currents is not directly affected by the constant mean flow .Its just part of the natural cycle.


GOM 120 Hour Water Surface Temperature Forecast Model Link


Right, but my question was not related to the cold water in general...It's related to the volume of water which is spilling out that is the highest it's been in a decade?

Do the predictions take the volume of water into account?
Geologic Framework and Processes of the Lake Pontchartrain Basin March 1997


Lake Pontchartrain Basin Home



Topics of Investigation
Geologic Framework
Shoreline/
Wetland Change
Water Circulation


Satellite Imagery
Bonnet-Carré Spillway Event
Water Turbidity
Sea-Surface Temperature
1997 Algal Bloom

Project Contact:
Jack Kindinger

Bonnet Carré Spillway Event Link
The volume is a constant Delta-v. Its just higher from a wet spring.Volume is a given known.Its only fractional higher and isnt a factor, Id figure in overall volume to be heated.
Subject: E11) How many tropical cyclones have there been each year in the Atlantic basin? What years were the greatest and fewest seen?
Contributed by Chris Landsea

Starting in 1944, systematic aircraft reconnaissance was commenced for monitoring both tropical cyclones and disturbances that had the potential to develop into tropica cyclones. This is why both Neumann et al. (1993) and Landsea (1993) recommend utilizing data since 1944 for computing climatological statistics. However, for tropical cyclones striking the USA East and Gulf coasts - because of highly populated coast lines, data with good reliability extends back to around 1899. Thus, the following records hold for the entire Atlantic basin (from 1944-present) and for the USA coastline (1899-present):


JP; as "landfalls" between 1899-1944 does not provide a quick reference to actual track coordinates during the approach, I guess you would have to go with 1994-present to try and figure out the most "crossed" region in the Atlantic basin; adding to my previous list of guesses (considering that the majority of hurricane strikes have occured on the SE/Southern coast of Florida) the area of the "Southern Bahamas" would also be a good prospect area to look at as this would cover a ton of storms that actually threatened the SE coast, but, would also probably cover a lot of "fish storms" that were swept off to the NE before getting into Gulf Stream area.....

Thanks to StormW and Patrap for replying. It seems that it's not a huge factor (as I thought it may not be) I know the MS River in comparison to the GOM is pretty minute.

Thanks guys!
Gabrielle, Karen and Ingrid all fought a valiant fight agianst hostile conditions, if the conditions had even been a bit more favorable we could have seen more than just 4 hurricanes

Not sure who you are talking to (and why is this always brought up?), but there were 6, not 4 hurricanes last year, unless I missed something and the NHC downgraded Karen and Noel.
ya noel seemed weird to me
17. jphurricane2006 1:28 PM EDT on April 28, 2008
an intersting question here lol, maybe someone knows of a way to find out
ok here we go:
What is the one set of coordinates over the Atlantic basin that has seen the passage of most tropical systems?


JP; based upon a cursory visual scan of storm tracks for major hurricane strikes on the CONUS per the NOAA tropical cyclone records archives (1800's to 2004), and not counting tropical storms and minor canes (which are not included in that database), I'm going to go with the Southern Bahamas island chain as the most frequently "crossed" coordinate area in terms of climatology and tropical storms....Realize mind you that we are still talking about a huge geographical area which can stretch all the way from Nassau down to the Turks and Caicos so I cannot come up with an exact coordinate.........Let someone else (with more time) do the overlay and get us closer to a more exact coordinate...JP?
For those who think that La Nina is going to weaken slower, the following says otherwise; most of the Pacific now has much weaker than average trades, virtually calm across the entire eastern half of the Pacific and only enhanced around the dateline now; the SLP configuration is also the opposite of what occurs during a La Nina, lower than average pressures across the eastern half of the Pacific with above average pressures in the western Pacific:



Also, if I only had the above to tell what ENSO phase we were in right now, I would say El Nino; this also just doesn't look right for a La Nina transistioning to just neutral either, since I doubt the trades normally get this weak or the SLP pattern looks like the above.
Reno still shaken:

4.2 Earthquake shakes Reno Monday morning

They say a strong quake is likely within 10 day's of Friday's earthquake. The further we get away from that 10-day window, they say there is less chance for a major earthquake.




So STL do you think an el Nino is going to kick in already?

I was looking at the day to day and it seems to be really changing rapidly. That kinda sends the 1999 scenario out the window.
Five tornado warnings are currently in effect, three in Virginia, one in North Carolina, one in Maryland.

(20:21:12z Volume Scan)

1) The warned cell currently over Suffolk, VA has an active couplet (-45 kt/-55 kt) which indicates a funnel cloud has is forming, has formed, or a tornado is already on the ground. The TOR includes the cities of Newport News and Hampton. This cell is producing 0.75 inch hail. The rotation is such that it is causing a warp within the cloud structure, visible on TOPS (Echo Tops). It has a hook echo on BR (Base Reflectivity).

2) A portion of the squall line currently over Claremont, VA is producing rotation. There is no couplet associated with this storm, meaning that it is likely that there is no tornado or funnel cloud currently active, however, the rotation is still there and has previously produced tornadoes farther to the south. It seems to me as if this cell has been under cut.

3) Adjacent to the second cell, another portion of the squall line has been warned. The rotation (what is left of it) is east of Charles City, VA. It has weakened significantly and no longer appears to be a major concern.

4) Another portion of the squall line, farther north, has been TOR warned. I do not see a MESO structure, but part of the line has begun to bend ahead of its self, possibly an indication of a bow echo forming.

5) The cell south of Harrellsville has a couplet of -45 kts/ 35 kts, not as strong as the cell near Newport News, but this cell is likely producing a funnel. it has a hook on BR.
So STL do you think an el Nino is going to kick in already?

I am not going so far as to say that one will develop in the next few months, but it seems that something is up, and more than a normal weakening of La Nina; just a couple months ago we had the strongest La Nina on record for February, both in SSTs and SOI, now it is only a weak La Nina, weaker than similar episodes 2 months after the peak, with a near-neutral SOI, which despite rising a bit a few days ago, has since continued falling and didn't affect the trades.
42. STL, the very weak Azores/Bermuda high suggests same thing
Its not really ever happened that a strong el nino formed up in spring, not that I can tell. But there are a few cases of el nino forming up spring to summer.

Previous Events (1951-present)


1965 Atlantic hurricane season

1957 Atlantic hurricane season

1968 Atlantic hurricane season


Boy - Slow but also Gulf hurricane years.
STL, what's your take on this NASA "PDO" article and how it may effect La Nina/El Nino? TIA!



Larger Pacific Climate Event Helps Current La Nina Linger
- complete article.

PASADENA, Calif. – Boosted by the influence of a larger climate event in the Pacific, one of the strongest La Ninas in many years is slowly weakening but continues to blanket the Pacific Ocean near the equator, as shown by new sea-level height data collected by the U.S.-French Jason oceanographic satellite.

This La Nina, which has persisted for the past year, is indicated by the blue area in the center of the image along the equator. Blue indicates lower than normal sea level (cold water). The data were gathered in early April.

The image also shows that this La Nina is occurring within the context of a larger climate event, the early stages of a cool phase of the basin-wide Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is a long-term fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean that waxes and wanes between cool and warm phases approximately every five to 20 years. In the cool phase, higher than normal sea-surface heights caused by warm water form a horseshoe pattern that connects the north, west and southern Pacific, with cool water in the middle. During most of the 1980s and 1990s, the Pacific was locked in the oscillation's warm phase, during which these warm and cool regions are reversed. For an explanation of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and its present state, see: http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/ and http://www.esr.org/pdo_index.html .

“This multi-year Pacific Decadal Oscillation 'cool' trend can intensify La Nina or diminish El Nino impacts around the Pacific basin," said Bill Patzert, an oceanographer and climatologist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. "The persistence of this large-scale pattern tells us there is much more than an isolated La Nina occurring in the Pacific Ocean."

I don't think we are in for an El nino yet. The Southern Oscillation index values are still positive. The climatological areas of high pressure to the South-east of Tahiti are still above average. Also the precipitation values do not suggest El Nino if fact just the opposite with anomalously wetter conditions Brazil and Indonesia while have drier conditions in the West central Pacific.

90 day Precipitation averages:
La Nina
Also the precipitation values do not suggest El Nino if fact just the opposite with anomalously wetter conditions Brazil and Indonesia while have drier conditions in the West central Pacific.

I don't think using a 90 day average is valid however; the 30 and 5 day maps both show a weaker pattern.
Well i dont think we are IN el nino, its just the change in the last few days was rather striking - if not a little odd.
50. MichaelSTL 8:56 PM GMT on April 28, 2008
Also the precipitation values do not suggest El Nino if fact just the opposite with anomalously wetter conditions Brazil and Indonesia while have drier conditions in the West central Pacific.

I don't think using a 90 day average is valid however; the 30 and 5 day maps both show a weaker pattern.


Lesser because of the time and the availability of dry air or moisture. Also the scale for the 90 day and 30 day averages are different. The pattern still looks the same. Also 5 day maps are not good enough to show a pattern.
STL, what's your take on this NASA "PDO" article and how it may effect La Nina/El Nino? TIA!

The negative phase of the PDO is supposed to supress El Ninos and lead to stronger La Ninas (in some ways, you don't get a "real" La Nina unless the PDO is negative, same for a positive PDO and an El Nino). Although, we have had an El Nino every other year (none of them were very strong though) since 2002 and according to the NCDC the PDO has been negative since 1998 (the current values are actually not as negative as they were in, for example, 2006 - and perhaps that is why that El Nino had some strange features, like drought in California).
Actually the 5 five day maps for the end of April have shown a spreading of the warm water plume. Farther and farther west and south each time since early April. At this rate la nina will be decidedly dead by mid may.

I guess it could switch back but if it were to continue and rapidly change into an el nino we would be in completely uncharted territory. Except for 1957.
Ouch (click link for pictures):

BREAKING NEWS: Possible Tornado Strikes Tri-Cities

Updated: April 28, 2008 04:06 PM CDT

Update: A tornado warning has been issued for chesterfield and all of the Tri-Cities. Preliminary reports of damage are being reported in Colonial Heights and Petersburg.

According to witnesses, damage is widespread in the Southpark Mall area of Colonial Heights.

Officials confirm at least 18 people have been injured near the mall. Witnesses report cars being tossed around, and debris strewn everywhere.

VDOT officials said all debris has been removed from Interstate 95, but traffic remains backed up for about two miles in each direction.

Stay with 8news for updates.

A line of severe storms is sweeping across Central Virginia, bringing with it a history of tornado warnings.

One warning was issued for Brunswick County around 2:45 p.m. 8News has already received word of damaged homes in Brunswick. There is no word yet if an actual tornado touched down.

Heavy rain and possibly severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening across central Virginia. Stay with 8News for updates.

Copyright 2008 by Young Broadcasting,Inc.
45. MichaelSTL 8:37 PM GMT on April 28, 2008
So STL do you think an el Nino is going to kick in already?

I am not going so far as to say that one will develop in the next few months, but it seems that something is up, and more than a normal weakening of La Nina; just a couple months ago we had the strongest La Nina on record for February, both in SSTs and SOI, now it is only a weak La Nina, weaker than similar episodes 2 months after the peak, with a near-neutral SOI, which despite rising a bit a few days ago, has since continued falling and didn't affect the trades.


At this rate whats the earliest possible we could see an El nino?
Hey StormW!
yea looking at the pics from that stl id say it was a tornado for sure - f 2 I would think.
yeaow had one right near me

LIVE OAK SUWANNEE FL 3029 8299 HOMES DAMAGED ON 68TH ST. IN LIVE OAK BY POSSIBLE TORNADO. (JAX) - looks like it headed east towards lake city then not towards north of jax

the other ones in Virginia are occurring in and near populated areas.
At this rate whats the earliest possible we could see an El nino?

If you look here, there have been six other years that transistioned from La Nina to El Nino in the same year, so it wouldn't be so unusual to see an El Nino by the end of this year (the La Nina in 1976 is the closest in terms of strength, it became a weak El Nino by the middle of summer). The fastest transistion was in 1957, which had two neutral seasons in between (for this year, March-May at least will still be La Nina so a similar time frame this year would make June-August the first El Nino season, probably wouldn't be that fast though). Also, I noticed that all of those same-year transistions occurred during the negative PDO phase, so it apparantly alters more than just the strength and frequency of El Nino and La Nina, perhaps also the way they develop.
Thank God that the line of tornadoes over the Virginia region (actually from Atlantic City down to the Outer Banks) looks like it will be will be sweeping off-shore soon; hopefully the mariners in that region (there are a lot of boats over there) have been keeping abreast of this situation and have secured their boats and/or are off of the coastal waters off that region as well...........
Always a good Idea to use a Cell Phone Alert service.One cant have the NOAA radio handy at the Mall Parking Lot.


Many Alert Weather Services are Cell Ready now.Link
Surface Currents in the Atlantic Ocean Link
53. MichaelSTL 4:03 PM CDT on April 28, 2008
...Although, we have had an El Nino every other year (none of them were very strong though) since 2002 and according to the NCDC the PDO has been negative since 1998 (the current values are actually not as negative as they were in, for example, 2006 - and perhaps that is why that El Nino had some strange features, like drought in California).


Thanks, STL. Nice response. Does it seem, maybe, that we can have some type of La Nina or El Nino conditions, even, within both positive or negative PDO phases? Again, TIA!
Patrap - applauds & loud cheers for your post1138 regarding the importance of wetlands and water surge protection! The Mr. Bill post is a hoot!
looks, feels and smells like Rain is on the way --would love a little thunderstorm action as well SRQ/WFL
To put the volume of the loop current in perspective w/ the Mississippi River Outflow-found this:

Most of us have become familiar with the speed and temperature of the GOM Loop Current through the excellent posts from many bloggers this pre-season.

One more measurement would be the volume. Seems ocean current volumes are measured in "Sverdrups" (Sv). Named after an author and director of The Scripps Institute.

1 Sv = one million cubic meters of water flowing per second.

The average volume contained in ALL the worlds rivers is equal to about 1 Sverdrup!!!
Average transport of the Loop Current is 24 Sv!


The Cooperative Institute for Marine
and Atmospheric Studies-GOM Loop Current
Beell, that's a heckuva perspective! That's one water-moving machine! Nice post, thanks!
Some drastic warming has occurred over the past month and the average anomaly looks more between -0.4C and -0.5C.To me this implies that we could see neutral ENSO conditions going into the 08 hurricane season.

54. The fading La Nina itself was uncharted territory. Seeing such a strong event disappear so quickly is uncharted territory too. Is it possible the entire PDO is shifting or something? Obviously this is has not been typical ENSO pattern at all going back last 2 yrs.
Thanks MLC!
Neutral ENSO is likely to prevail through the majority of this hurricane season.
73. Take that forecast compare it to the last three and watch the trend. The trend tells different story than the ensemble. Actually, the trend tells the same story as the previous rise in temps. If you would have told me last December that such a rise was going to take place-I'd have said you were crazy. The fact is the strongest Nina on record has disappeared in a month and a half. That is extreme rapid warming and to think it will just suddenly stop just doesn't add up the way I see it.
Is that right beell?! thats incredible.


Pick your side!

La Nina----Neutral-----El Nino (and El Nina and La Nino! for the cautious summer people.}
1138. Patrap 11:43 AM CDT on April 28, 2008
(previous entry)

The natural deposits of silts,sand and pebbles,clay etc were the building blocks of the Marshlands and Delta plains along the River below Baton Rouge for thousands of years.
Only till man leveed the Miss River has the wetlands been deteriorated to the state we see them today. A natural process that afforded the Wetlands protection from storm Surges from Powerful Large Scale Hurricanes is now gone.

For every mile of wetlands loss,a proportionate amount of surge protection is lost.
The Aug 2005 Event showed how the loss of Barrier Island storm surge protection along with cypress lines,marshland rise and fall..all led to a surge that caused devastating results. The answer is simple.
Restore the wetlands and barrier Islands as a first line of defense to surge..as nature intended.
Then find ways to lessen the oil industries impact on the ecosystem.

In this public service announcement created before Katrina, Mr. Bill of SNL fame demonstrates the dangers of a hurricane hitting New Orleans.

The Creator of Mr. Bill is a Louisiana Native.

78. JFLORIDA 10:05 PM GMT on April 28, 2008
Is that right beell?! thats incredible.


It is.
I think Nargis is Developing an eye.
they think that its going to be a cat 4, its also
moving more northerly than expected, if this northerly trend continues it could be another Bangladesh storm (but it probably won't be as powerful as if it went NE) still a system to watch.
how does Burma deal with cyclones?

.6 inches of rain today maybe another quick dousing and were done
62. MichaelSTL 9:30 PM GMT on April 28, 2008
At this rate whats the earliest possible we could see an El nino?

If you look here, there have been six other years that transistioned from La Nina to El Nino in the same year, so it wouldn't be so unusual to see an El Nino by the end of this year (the La Nina in 1976 is the closest in terms of strength, it became a weak El Nino by the middle of summer). The fastest transistion was in 1957, which had two neutral seasons in between (for this year, March-May at least will still be La Nina so a similar time frame this year would make June-August the first El Nino season, probably wouldn't be that fast though). Also, I noticed that all of those same-year transistions occurred during the negative PDO phase, so it apparantly alters more than just the strength and frequency of El Nino and La Nina, perhaps also the way they develop.


So you can probably respectfully agree that just as fast as conditions have took a turn they could just as quick turn around? I see an El nino towards the very end of the season, Nonetheless i still anticipate an active season do you? TIA, I love your informative post's!
I'm still watching this frequent frontal trough pattern that the long range models indicate will prevail through the first half of May...
23 I too believe at this point it will take much of the season for an El Nino strong enough to be a "cane killer" to manifest. If I were the betting type I'd say next winter will be El Nino or maybe early end to Atlantic hurricane season but no earlier. Warm E-Pac induced activity will tend inhibit early season Atlantic development if it occurs.
NARGIS

Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC)
Version 1 V-Max 70 knotsLink
Tornado has moved through Suffolk and Norfolk in past hour causing heavy damage.

http://www.wvec.com/perl/common/slideshow/sspop.pl?recid=9485&nextimage=8
Even with a full El Nino the gulf temps are going to be problematic. The loop is intense and the gulf as a whole is warmer (or at least seems warmer) than this time in 2005.
I live very near suffolk by the way.
88. JFLORIDA 10:18 PM GMT on April 28, 2008
Even with a full El Nino the gulf temps are going to be problematic. The loop is intense and the gulf as a whole is warmer (or at least seems warmer) than this time in 2005.
Action: | Ignore User


A full El Nino is HIGHLY unlikely before the season ends, A weak one is still rather unlikely, A neutral season is the most likely at this point, which would spawn trouble for this hurricane season, in my opinion.
Oh wow that tornado looks a little worse than first reported. Thanks vabeachurricanes222

I know cane, but still something seems a little different in the way the la nina-FIXED (darn now im doing it!)is diminishing. We will see.




SST comparisons from same date in 2005.
igbay areflay inay ethay estway acificpay obilypray otnay onnagay ormfay utbay orthway atchingway Link
nothing hits me sniffle sniffle
Lose power ONE time in the summer, that changes your perspective completely. But, if we get a weak one in the panhandle I may go to family's house and ride one out - problem is of course with the GOM looking to be up so high, things could turn nasty real fast.

Hurricane Audrey


it became a tropical depression on June 25. The depression stalled in the Gulf of Mexico where it showed signs of rapid intensification. At 1800 UTC, the tropical depression became Hurricane Audrey. The fledgling storm was centered 380 miles (612 km) southeast of Brownsville, Texas. By June 26, the storm was already at Category 2.. ..Hurricane Audrey then attained its peak wind speed of 145 mph (230 km/h) and an estimated pressure of (at most) 946 millibars before making landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border on June 27. (cat 4)
95. StormW 10:34 PM GMT on April 28, 2008
ECMWF NINO PLUMES


That looks neutral to weak la nina.
Storm W
the predictions seem to split so its either weak La Nina or weak El Nino but few accumulate around neutral
Funny about the power losses during a storm...during Francis and Jeanne..I was without power for a total of about 3 weeks. With Wilma, the worst storm - damage wise - I ever went through (West Palm), the power was restored the next day. Go figure!
Geoffery i was also with out power from Frances and Jeanne for a few weeks. And with Wilma i only lost power for 2 days. I think the reason why i think we got power back so quick for wilma was because FPL were ready for the afermath and had everything ready to go.
Gonna Head Home but MSNBC has a "Breaking News" tickler at the top of their Web Site right now that states that authorities are reporting one dead and 200 injured in tornadoes in Virginia............Condolences to the families................BBT
Haha...With a two year break...I hope FPL is still on it's toes for this season
One thing to note about the model forecasts is that more recent runs have trended warmer, at least for the models that show old vs. new runs; for example (blue lines are most recent, red oldest):



The CFS has also shown a similar trend. Also, I think we do have to consider what has happened recently (for example, La Nina in early 2006 to El Nino) as well as the previous cool PDO period, when every single La Nina, at least from 1951, (counting multi-year events as one) turned into an El Nino by the end of the same year it dissipated in. This I think increases the odds of a switch by the end of the year, compared to the past 30 years, although any El Nino likely wouldn't be very strong, at least not this year (cool PDO El Ninos can still get pretty strong though; in fact, 1972-73 was stronger than any La Nina in terms of absolute ONI numbers).
Prayers out to the folks in VA. affected by the tornadoes...just had some footage on CNN and it looks horrible....
Cheers to Patrap --Bravo for post79 !!! Of course Mr. Bill makes the point as well.....

Still holding my breath for that Rain...I see it Storm, but it looks like it just might miss SRQ
Poor VA --can't imagine that they would be very prepared for tornadoes BBL
A ? for all you fine folks...whose administration would run a better FEMA....McCain, Obama or Clinton?
STL, thanks, post #105 is a good, straight forward, straight up take on ENSO. Good job!
I wish they would give it back to the states but MAKE them prepare and standardize their responses.

I think a one organization fits all that FEMA is, is a disaster.
gut instinct --none of the above. Who ever was in charge of the coast guard at the time of katrina wuold be my consideration --because based on Preformance -- they were the most effective in the time of crisis ok now for sure BBL
Live footage of the VA tornadoes on Fox
Surfmom....here is a disturbing story..

““That should be criminal,”” Taffaro continues.
What he's talking about was witnessed by a St. Bernard Parish resident who didn't want to be identified, but did have sharp criticism of the work done by a contractor hired by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.
““It's like putting a Band-Aid on the hole of a gas tank of an airplane,”” the resident said.
Instead of an airplane, it's a floodwall, and instead of a Band-Aid, the witness says two years ago, he saw the contractor filling the expansion joint or opening between the floodwalls with newspaper.
““The whole length of the wall was stuffed with newspaper.””
And when he confronted the contractor, the contractor blamed Washington for the substandard work.
““He basically told me when Congress sent down the money, it would be repaired the proper way.””
But during a recent trip to the area, two years later, it was apparent that didn't happen. Much of the newspaper had deteriorated or been eaten by bugs, but some still remained. In fact WWL cameras even captured the date May 21, 2006, on a page of the Parade magazine from the Times-Picayune.
Eyewitness News asked local engineer Subhash Kulkarni to investigate the findings at the floodwall.
““They should have done a better job than what you see here.””
Kulkarni is a member of the American Society of Civil Engineers. The ASCE named him outstanding civil engineer in Louisiana back in 2003.
““I cannot even comprehend that somebody would stuff some newspaper in there.””
Engineers tell Eyewitness News an expansion joint has three lines of defense. The first is an elastic strip that helps keep water out. In the middle is the most important part, a waterstop, which is in fact included in the St. Bernard floodwall. However what is missing is a rubber joint that goes in between and helps keep foreign objects out.
The witness who talked to Eyewitness News says the contractor used the newspaper in place of the rubber joint. Kulkarni says it's not a short term risk, but over time that missing rubber joint could weaken that waterstop.
““It could be very serious,”” Kulkarni said. ““It doesn't take a lot of stress to cause the failure of these floodwalls. We don't know after two or three years how the main joint will perform. This is the first line of defense.””
But the Army Corps of Engineers says it is confident the floodwall will sufficiently defend residents of St. Bernard and the Ninth Ward.
““If you look at the repairs we made to the joints, there's not really a safety issue with the joints at all,”” said Kevin Wagner with the Army Corps of Engineers.
The Corps also says it’’s satisfied with the quality of work done by its contractor. When asked by WWL if there was any shoddy work involved, Wagner said, ““I don't think so at all.””
But days before that interview, after a request by Eyewitness News , another Corps employee e-mailed the Corps’’ standards for expansion joint construction and in that e-mail, the Corps employee describes the specific materials needed as "sponge rubber" that goes next to the waterstop. That’’s the same spot where a witness saw a contractor stuffing newspaper back in 2006.
When asked if the absence of material behind the waterstop was what was called for in the contract, Corps spokesman Kevin Wagner called the project an emergency repair.
““If we would have built a new floodwall that would not have been the case. We would have the waterstop, some joint filler material in between and then we would put an elastic sealer over the top of it,”” Wagner said. ““In this case we tried to do the repairs as quick as possible to protect the water stop before the start of hurricane season.””
But according to the contract obtained by Eyewitness News, that may not be the case. The contract calls for Ercon Corporation, based in Lafayette, Louisiana, to do the almost $2 million of work to raise and repair the floodwall under the Paris Road bridge.
In the contract, WWL found at least four mentions of field molded sealants. Kulkarni says that is the sponge rubber material to fill the cavity in the expansion joint. And he says the contract shows the rubber material was contractually required to be installed.
““I would say they have not met their obligation to install the joint correctly. They haven't installed it at all,”” Kulkarni said.
Eyewitness News contacted the president of Ercon Corporation by phone and e-mail. He didn't respond to our repeated requests for a comment on this story. Further, our investigation revealed Ercon Corporation is not even licensed by the state's board for contractors. The Corps of Engineers says as long as the federal government pays for the work, it does not prevent them from hiring an unlicensed Louisiana company.
““If you're telling me this is an out of town contractor who drives back to wherever they're from and puts their head on the pillow at night, does it really matter to them that this particular part of the project fails?”” St. Bernard president Craig Taffaro asks.
Taffaro calls the response from the Corps and Contractor unacceptable.
““Would they let a contractor put Play-Doh in the place of mortar when they put bricks on their house? No, I don't think so,”” Taffaro said.
He says while newspaper doesn't define the entire levee system, it does have him concerned about the oversight of all work being done in southeast Louisiana.
““It's an indictment against the quality of work being done,”” Taffaro says. ““Let’’s hope that same standard wasn't being used in constructing the floodwall in constructing the levees.””
101. StormW 10:46 PM GMT on April 28, 2008
98. all4hurricanes 6:39 PM EDT on April 28, 2008
Storm W
the predictions seem to split so its either weak La Nina or weak El Nino but few accumulate around neutral


We could go neutral, with a warm bias.


According to this, It looks like it will be either Neutral or Weak La nino for the majority of the season...A few stray models go for the El nino...I am sticking with Neutral conditions for at least the main part of this season.
Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Patrap bravo for post 79. In Pensacola I saw the difference 20ft can make with surge. Pensacola had a similar scenario with Ivan with surge as far as angle of approach and storm having been previously a cat 5 as MS/AL had w/ Katrina. Pensacola however sits on a hill where as our neighbors to the west do not. That prevented Ivans surge from going inland for miles. Although Katrina's surge was higher as it was larger and less time had passed for weakening, the difference in surge damage was elevation and it didn't take much to determine whether your house went scuba diving or not. If coastal areas like LA dont take action to preserve vital lands being lost to erosion, situations like Katrina will become the norm rather than the exception. It doesn't even take a hurricane to produce surge, the 93 superstorm was a winter event that had a major surge in the FL panhandle. If LA isn't going to fix the problem leading to the NOLA flood, it will be a waste of money to rebuild and I for one think New Orleans, like the rest of Louisiana and the Gulf Coast and it's inhabitants are worth preserving.
116. CA on that April ENSO forecast 6 models go above the neutral line, 4 did in the same forecast for March, I believe none the month before. Sometimes I believe the trend says more than the one month "snapshot". I too believe that the season will tend neutral, to warm by the end as far as ENSO goes, but there are very many other factors that make or break a hurricane season.
Heres a look at the Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomalies. The negative anomalies show areas of higher cloudiness which in turn means higher precipitation values. The positive anomalies show drier conditions and lack of cloudiness.

118. Ivansrvivr 11:41 PM GMT on April 28, 2008
116. CA on that April ENSO forecast 6 models go above the neutral line, 4 did in the same forecast for March, I believe none the month before. Sometimes I believe the trend says more than the one month "snapshot". I too believe that the season will tend neutral, to warm by the end as far as ENSO goes, but there are very many other factors that make or break a hurricane season.


I only see two models showing El nino conditions in that graphic.
Im gonna play the outside and say neutral may and el nino by August. (but I want to say july.)
The naval base at Norfolk has reportedly sustained damage to some extent. Multiple buildings have failed farther west. Major damage was reported with a tornado in North Florida. The twister that I pointed out earlier near Suffolk VA did touch down near the town. Southpark Mall, near Colonial Heights, sustained damage and injuries were reported in that general area.

The Washington Post is reporting one fatality. Most of the news sources I have seen are reporting 150+ injuries in total.

Some highlights from the preliminary SPC storm reports:

2 NW NORFOLK...CITY OF NORFOLK...VA...POTENTIAL TORNADIC DAMAGE TO A BUILDING AND SEVERAL CARS DAMAGED ON NORFOLK NAVAL BASE. TREES DOWN. (AKQ)

DEKLE BEACH...TAYLOR...FL...POSSIBLE TORNADO MAJOR DAMAGE TO 3 HOMES (TAE)

1 E COLONIAL HEIGHTS...CHESTERFIELD...VA...TORNADO REPORTED OFF TEMPLE AVE IN COLONIAL HEIGHTS FROM MULTIPLE SOURCES. (AKQ)

120. Drakoen 11:51 PM GMT on April 28, 2008
118. Ivansrvivr 11:41 PM GMT on April 28, 2008
116. CA on that April ENSO forecast 6 models go above the neutral line, 4 did in the same forecast for March, I believe none the month before. Sometimes I believe the trend says more than the one month "snapshot". I too believe that the season will tend neutral, to warm by the end as far as ENSO goes, but there are very many other factors that make or break a hurricane season.

I only see two models showing El nino conditions in that graphic.


I thought the same unless of course im seeing things, Lol.
116, I didn't say El Nino (above +0.5), I said above the 0.0 neutral line. I am pointing out a trend not specifics. You are correct, what I am pointing out is that the long term forecasts are going up each time a new one is coming out. Notice the discussion on the blog which was mostly la Nina-neutral for upcoming season weeks ago is now more of when or if El Nino will occur.
CA I am not trying to be insulting, but while you arent seeing things, you arent reading things either. Why dont you read my post before you LOL.
From: stormhunter27

This is one of my favourite videos from Katrina. I shot it as I stood braced against the wind in the bottom level of the Hancock Bank parking garage in Gulfport.

The BOM data says that La Nina is gone now, at least according to their weekly SSTs (the CPC had it at -0.8 today; BOM has generally been warmer, probably due to a different dataset; the BOM also uses +/-0.8 instead of +/-0.5 for their cutoff):

I'm seeing things too. I am seeing CaneAddict joining my banned/ignore list LOL
GeoffreyWPB - Just copied that piece on the floodwalls - sent it to those interested...makes me sick --where are people's social consciousness???
126. Ivansrvivr 12:09 AM GMT on April 29, 2008
CA I am not trying to be insulting, but while you arent seeing things, you arent reading things either. Why dont you read my post before you LOL.


You didn't really specify... Especially since 0.0 is with in neutral conditions but is not the limit of neutral conditions.
Huh...people putting other people on ignore simply because they disagree with their analyis???
132. GeoffreyWPB 12:16 AM GMT on April 29, 2008
Huh...people putting other people on ignore simply because they disagree with their analyis???


Its misunderstanding lol...
The Suffolk tornado looks like a wedge that degenerated into a stovepipe twister.

Images from people around the affected aras:

Image 1
Image 2
Image 3
Image 4

Damage reports (from CNN/Associated Press, and TornadoVideos.net, and photographers)




video of katrina --makes my dinner flip....I am ok for me --it just the horses, I hope I am not going to have to see this real time
Drak, I said "Neutral Line". How much more specific should I get. I know you were being serious, but others who have just joined my banned/ignore list were being insulting.
136. Ivansrvivr 12:19 AM GMT on April 29, 2008
Drak, I said "Neutral Line". How much more specific should I get. I know you were being serious, but others who have just joined my banned/ignore list were being insulting.


Ok.
Hi Surfmom...I can't believe this has not been widely circulated (Keith Olbermann did report on it) Newspaper added as filler to help build the levees..Astounding
Calamity strikes on a Monday in Virginia. The Twisters come swiftly..
Many are without essentials tonight.




Gray under fire :(

Link
132 I go out of my way to treat people with respect here and I expect the same. There was too much of that last summer and I wont hesitate to squash it before it starts on my end. If anyone on my banned/ignore list wants to be taken off those lists they can feel free to use e-mail and explain themselves (I will take names off as quickly as I put them on and am always willing to listen)
awesome Katrina video, thanks for sharing
140, If Colorado State wants to pull Dr.Grays forecasts they can and the university will lose all the credibility Dr. Grey has built for them. That is no different than banning people for having different views.
I agree, Ivansrvivr...precisely why I made the post.

Most impressive! :)
Bill Gray been ruffling CSU since 2006..

Heres the Denver Article that got it going a year and a half ago. Link

"They've been brainwashing us for 20 years," Gray says. "Starting with the nuclear winter and now with the global warming. This scare will also run its course. In 15-20 years, we'll look back and see what a hoax this was."
131 the graphic the ignored person posted only had one darkened line for 0.0, did not specify whether neutral was 0.5 as some say or 0.8 as others do. While I had no problem with anyones opposing views, the "seeing things LOL" comment was a bit out of line. I don't say things like that to people here and I wont take it either. I will block or ignore anyone who cant treat me with the same respect I treat them with.
it's diversity that keeps species alive - same goes for opinion. Weather (Whether) I agree w/ Grey or not...I still want to hear EVERYONE'S opinion, I treasure my freedom to hear all points of view
ruffling? or merely giving the perspective that decades of climatological research imparts on a person? maybe we should listen to him instead of ostracizing him...
146. Ivansrvivr 12:40 AM GMT on April 29, 2008
131 the graphic the ignored person posted only had one darkened line for 0.0, did not specify whether neutral was 0.5 as some say or 0.8 as others do. While I had no problem with anyones opposing views, the "seeing things LOL" comment was a bit out of line. I don't say things like that to people here and I wont take it either. I will block or ignore anyone who cant treat me with the same respect I treat them with.


Okay I understand.
CSU is very Big Source on the GW data...

GLOBAL WARMING MAY CHANGE HIBERNATION PATTERNS; CSU RESEARCH FOCUSING ON GENETIC VS. ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS Link

Surfmom I feel the same way until those making their points insult me, then I will us my "easy button" to put an end to it. It is simple matter of respect. If I go around insulting people, I would expect the same treatment. As I said I will be happy to listen anytime someone asks to be taken off my ignore list
... A small... weak tornado confirmed near Kings Mountain North Carolina...

The Greenville Spartanburg office of the National Weather Service
has completed its survey of wind damage that occurred in a Mobile
Home Park near Kings Mountain North Carolina in Cleveland County on
Monday morning.

Two aspects of damage were observed in the park. Straight line wind
damage was observed on the east end of the Mobile Home Park where
skirting was blown off homes... tree limbs were downed... and a large
tree fell on 3 vehicles.

Toward the west end of the Mobile Home Park... damage consistent with
a weak tornado was observed. A portion of a roof was blown off one
home and tossed several hundred feet. The roof over the home's deck
was severly damaged. Another home was dislodged from its blocks.
Also... a metal utility shed was destroyed with parts tossed in
opposite directions. The damage observed would classify the tornado
as a EF-0 with winds likely in the 70 to 80 mph range. The damage
path was only about 200 yards and the tornado was only 110 feet in
diameter. Witnesses indicated that the storm hit around 940 am.



_Kings Mountain is slighly below 2000f.t._

Other tornados were reported in Eastern N.C.

Some people drive me nuts on here...but I do not ignore them...Just between when I joined (August of last year), some of the people I thought were outrageous, I now undertand their train of thought and follow them.
oh, i see now...Gray is endangering the Government Grants! how dare he?!?!

(and I'm not picking on/at you Patrap, just CSU)
grrrrr, got skunked! NO Rain (SRQ) & No waves (minichance-6:00PM tomorrow) I was so hoping for a bit of rain & thunder
Jessica Davis
Professor and Extension Soil Specialist
Soil & Crop Sciences
and
Keith Paustian, Professor,
Soil & Crop Sciences and
Natural Resources Ecology Lab

The Greenhouse Effect and Carbon Sequestration Link

Later folks. Have a good night.
it's a sad state of affairs when government grants dictate which "science" takes precedence...
Surfmom..hate to sound dumb..but what is SRQ?
a wonderful buddhist once told me that even though we should have compassion --we do NOT have to stay in the same room w/someone that makes us feel uncomfortable - we have the freedom to stay, leave or hit the ignore button
Oh - SRQ is Sarasota - just easier to type
Im not a big fan of Dr Grey as a climatologist but as a hurricane forecaster I think he is competent. As long as it is kept separate I think all is well.

Hurricane forecasting and climatology are different animals. Each complex enough to be their own fields. When it comes to meteorological field experience in hurricanes Grey is probably the world expert.

Still I wouldn't get brain surgery from a podiatrist, or let a brain surgeon fix my feet.

If he isn't teaching at the school he should be making provision to handle media where he currently is working.
wouldn't one expect to develop a unique understanding of climatology while studying hurricanes and atmospheric thermodynamics for decades on end? why should his voice and valuable opinions be silenced just because he is not "mainstream"? who can prove him wrong?

I'm not trying to be a troll, just trying to have a good discussion.
with all the hoopla about how AGW is increasing hurricane frequency and intensity, why is Dr. Gray expected to keep his contrarian viewpoint to himself?
gotta run...have a good evening everyone!
Well..if Dr. Gray is going on his words from Dec 06..its now 1.5 years later and temps are up even faster and Glacial retreat too.

Govt grants dont collect data..
Scientist do.
Universities Worldwide have data sharing capability.

All the data shows Global Temps rising.

Gray is just screaming against the wind.

Some folks,,if they dont wanna know, u cant tell um.

LOL

And his Teams seasonal forecasts are usually a bust. Have been for a long time.

So ..if I could update my Tropical Predictions in April,June and Aug.,
I'd probably do better than the Gray team.
Forecasts for 6 month Tropical seasons are fantasy football on a PC...at Best.
G'night all
LOL - Patrap you are a hoot!!!! Nice to sign off with a giggle -
Nitey surfmom..catch a Dream wave tonight!
For those of you (along with me) that are still decided what conditions you believe this hurricane season will be under, I thought you might find what Dr. Masters says interesting. He says he believes this year for at least the majority of the season will be under "Neutral" conditions, Which agrees with what i believe.

FROM: JeffMasters FAVORITES BLOCKED New List
TO: CaneAddict
DATE: 2008-04-29 01:05:11 (1:05 AM GMT)
SUBJECT: Re: Dr. Masters
Neutral.

Jeff

*********** Original message follows: ***********
Sent by CaneAddict at: 6:17 PM EDT on April 28, 2008

I know your a busy man that has alot to deal with other than my emails, But if you can will you answer this one question?

Here it is.
In your own opinion which is likely based on climatology, tropical meterology study and other studys on past hurricane seasons, What do you believe will be the hurricane season will be under in terms of conditions for the majority of the season? Neutral, Weak La nina or an quickly developed El nino?


Currently forcasted to be a pretty significant system and reach 115kts.

Excellent Patrap...If I could change my Super Bowl predictions three times during the season, I probally would get pretty close!
Good Evening all.
Reading Dr. Masters post on the Sahara dust. Research by Amato Evan showed that dust concentrations affected the Hurricane seasons. 2005 had very little dust, and 28 named storms.
Well, we have had no dust this year either, and with ENSO messing around and heading neutral, I'll say it again

BRACE BRACE BRACE

( I'm about to be put on some ignore list here, but thats cool )
Watching those gas prices on Iam a legend from will smith is something that is a real possibility....

SEE HERE
I watched that movie last night then laid in bed hearing EVERYTHING outside.

It was too depressing a movie.
Thats taking too long to load, 23.
It's like the gas companies are getting in their last punches before a possible democrat gets into office.....on a weather note, they are saying that at least 3 tornadoes have struck VA.
177. pottery 9:33 PM EDT on April 28, 2008
Thats taking too long to load, 23.

Its a regular image from the movie...The gas prices were close to 7 bucks.
Pinhole eye forming Burma might be getting Cat 5
How was the weather in New York recently
my uncle lives there and he said to watch the weather channel Might NE of you have an idea why?
No, not that, I'm refering to post 172. Thanks.
Here's a loop from India showing Nargis
Link
earlier today.....

NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO AUSTRALIAN MAINLAND OR ISLANDS

The Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre has detected an earthquake near
Vanuatu.

Based on the magnitude,depth and location of this earthquake there is no tsunami
threat to the Australian mainland or islands.

No further bulletins will be issued for this event unless the threat level
changes.

The earthquake occurred at 18:33 UTC 28/04/2008 at Latitude 20.0 South,
Longitude 168.9 East, with magnitude 6.8.

The Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre is operated by the Bureau of
Meteorology and Geoscience Australia.
They thought the Indian Ocean quake was only a 7
when they first noticed it watch for more reports
Geez...tornadoes, earthquake...and the lead story on the news is Rev. Wright...Sheeesh...
It is the Pacific Ocean, but that is okay.

mostly everyone has it close to a 7.0
Who's taken Jeff Master's poll
whoever hasn't should
I was actually referring to the Great Indian Ocean quake of 2004
oh sorry
Thats OK i wasn't specific
For those of you (along with me) that are still decided what conditions you believe this hurricane season will be under, I thought you might find what Dr. Masters says interesting. He says he believes this year for at least the majority of the season will be under "Neutral" conditions, Which agrees with what i believe.

Also consider that he knows alot more than most of us..

FROM: JeffMasters FAVORITES BLOCKED New List
TO: CaneAddict
DATE: 2008-04-29 01:05:11 (1:05 AM GMT)
SUBJECT: Re: Dr. Masters
Neutral.

Jeff

*********** Original message follows: ***********
Sent by CaneAddict at: 6:17 PM EDT on April 28, 2008

I know your a busy man that has alot to deal with other than my emails, But if you can will you answer this one question?

Here it is.
In your own opinion which is likely based on climatology, tropical meterology study and other studys on past hurricane seasons, What do you believe will be the hurricane season will be under in terms of conditions for the majority of the season? Neutral, Weak La nina or an quickly developed El nino?
Neutral!
I agree with both Jeff and CaneAddict about neutral conditions being present throughout the entire season, or at least most of it. If El Nino develops, I don't think it'll do so until around October or November. In 2009 though, I'd look for a significant El Nino.
anyone else having a problem with post 172 taking forever to load ?
Jeff gave a pretty straight forward answer without much explanation....
No it worked fast for me pottery.

Internet Health Report

US Network seems OK.

Miami showing some latency however Denver/Atlanta too
197. pottery 2:06 AM GMT on April 29, 2008
anyone else having a problem with post 172 taking forever to load ?

No. I have high speed internet w/firefox.
196. KoritheMan 2:02 AM GMT on April 29, 2008
I agree with both Jeff and CaneAddict about neutral conditions being present throughout the entire season, or at least most of it. If El Nino develops, I don't think it'll do so until around October or November. In 2009 though, I'd look for a significant El Nino.


Exactly, Unless of course the strong El nino develops at the end of this season and by next year starts to weaken significantly, But yes, This year i'm looking for a Neutral season which means we have a very busy season ahead of us. I also would'nt be surprised to see the NHC raise there numbers, Although i believe that would be a little overboard. I expect to see very near what the current forecast is calling for.
198. Drakoen 2:07 AM GMT on April 29, 2008
Jeff gave a pretty straight forward answer without much explanation....


What are you saying? That he is pretty confident in his answer without hesitating to answer or that i made that email up?
OK, Thanks.
Well I'm out. Till Tomorow or so........
I don't have a problem with post 172 - although the image is over 4 MB in size - Dr. Masters told us before not to post images, usually animated ones, larger than about 250 KB (post as a thumbnail or link instead).
202. CaneAddict 2:10 AM GMT on April 29, 2008
198. Drakoen 2:07 AM GMT on April 29, 2008
Jeff gave a pretty straight forward answer without much explanation....

What are you saying? That he is pretty confident in his answer without hesit
ating to answer or that i made that email up?

lol. Why would I think you made that email up? I guess I was expecting more as to why he thought so in his own words.
207. StormW 2:16 AM GMT on April 29, 2008
Neutral conditions...where did I hear that before?


Bureau of Meteorology? They were saying a few more months of La Nina and possibly El Nino late in the year..
205. Drakoen 2:13 AM GMT on April 29, 2008
202. CaneAddict 2:10 AM GMT on April 29, 2008
198. Drakoen 2:07 AM GMT on April 29, 2008
Jeff gave a pretty straight forward answer without much explanation....

What are you saying? That he is pretty confident in his answer without hesitating to answer or that i made that email up?

lol. Why would I think you made that email up? I guess I was expecting more as to why he thought so in his own words.


I would think so also, I guess he was just busy.
214. StormW 2:33 AM GMT on April 29, 2008
212. GulfScotsman 10:27 PM EDT on April 28, 2008
hey STormW.

Try to keep the enthusiasum and the kids in line.

my god its still april


We are...I've just been cranking up for the season...tyring to get a feel at what I'm going to be looking at. Been watching different indictaors for the past month...things like the SST's, Nino regions, SOI, cloudiness (or lack of) near the dateline, NAO, QBO, what the MJO's been doing, what the ITCZ has been doing, forecast means of rainfall in various locations, forecast mean of the A/B high from the CFS, etc, etc. Then coming up with thoughts (and a headache).
Action: | Ignore User


In terms of storm tracks do you think we are looking at another 2004? (TRACKS) not the whole season.
Just saw that video Patrap posted in 127. That sound would give me nightmares. Don't see how those live oaks (?) stood up in that.

Had to take a re-look see at the surface wind analysis. Brrrrr.
Does anyone know the predicted African dust in the atmosphere compared to other years?
Finally the IMD has "Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Nargis" in the future.. whenever the 3:00 AM UTC advisory gets released around 7:00 am UTC, HAHA
220. StormW 2:59 AM GMT on April 29, 2008
Good info on the NAO.

NAO

An excerpt from the link that follows:

Years coincident with a warm ocean and low NAO values result in a signifcantly greater threat of U.S. hurricanes.

3. Bayesian Regression Model
[7] Time series of annual U.S. hurricane counts, fall to winter (October-January) averaged values of an NAO index, and January values of Atlantic SST are shown in Fig. 1. The NAO shows greater high frequency (year-to-year) variation while the AMO shows pronounced low frequency variability. Only the NAO is available back to 1851. U.S. hurricane landfalls tend to be more abundant when the NAO is low and when Atlantic SST are warm.

Good research paper:

Forecasting U.S. Hurricanes


Thanks StormW!
I am off to bed folks, I'll be on tomorrow G'Night!


Regarding levels of African dust (relating to sea surface temps and hurricanes) Eyewall2005 posted this as part of his April 13, 2008 Blog:
African dust outlook
African dust is thought to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, although its role is not well understood. As I explained in a 2006 blog entry, research shows that the presence of drought conditions in the Sahel region of Africa the previous year will increase the amount of dust wafting over the Atlantic during hurricane season. This occurs because drought-damaged soil takes about a year to dry up and turn to dust that can blow away. Last year saw above-average rains during the rainy season (June-September) over the Sahel (Figure 4). This was also the case in 2005 and 2006, so in theory, three straight years of good rains in the Sahel should act to keep African dust levels over the Atlantic below average this hurricane season. The last significant drought years in the Sahel were 2001 and 2002. I made the same forecast last year, but we saw unexpectedly high levels of dust over the eastern Atlantic in July and August, which substantially cooled the ocean waters by blocking sunlight. Dust levels returned to near average levels in September.

Well, that's my contribution to the pre-hurricane season chats. Goodnight all.
0:00 AM UTC bulletin (3 hours late)

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletins
05:30 AM IST April 29, 2008


Subject: Severe Cyclonic storm “NARGIS” over southwest and adjoining southeast and westcentral Bay of Bengal.

The Severe Cyclonic Storm Nargis over southwest and adjoining southeast and west central Bay of Bengal slightly moved in a northerly direction and lies centered as of 0:00 AM UTC near 13.0N 85.5E or 550 kms east of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further and move slowly in a northerly direction for some time and thereafter, it is likely to move northeastwards.

Under its influence, rain/thundershower is likely at many places with isolated heavy falls over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 48 hours and coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 24 hours.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 km/h is likely along and off north Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coast during next 24 hours. Squally wind speed reaching 45-55 km/h is also likely over Andaman Island and adjoining sea areas during next 48 hours.

Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off north Tamil Nadu & Andhra Pradesh coasts and around Andaman Islands.

Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea.
Trolling through the link Dr Masters left. He must be having fun. A few of my favorite abstracts from today..

Robust projections of vertical wind shear changes for the 21st Century

Tropical Cyclone Response to Periodic Forcing (Hugh Willoughby)

A climatology of ocean temperature forcing by aerosols across the tropical Atlantic

A fresh look at ocean's part of necessary conditions in supertyphoon's intensification

The AMMA radiosonde programme and its implications for the future of atmospheric monitoring over Africa


212. GulfScotsman
"hey STormW.
Try to keep the enthusiasum and the kids in line. my god its still april
"

So you're saying that the Category6 landfall on Memphis and LittleRock is overdue?

(Yep, really BIG storm surge)
LOL
232. beell
If you like the CONUS GFS, click and run the 500mb vorticity "Loop". This is 18z.

Check out Hrs 60 through 126. It's Fujiwhara wonderful. It's like a weather cartoon.

Not sure what to make of it all, but it's worth watching.

18Z GFS 500mb vort
Fujiwhara effect-Wikipedia

(may take a bit to load on a slower connection-stepping through each chart may work just as well)

Anyone want to guess what the price of gas will be in Florida just after the next hurricane when everyone is running a generator, but only half the stations are pumping gas? We will need to invent a new word, because gouging will be inadequate to describe it.

220. StormW 10:59 PM EDT
Years coincident with a warm ocean and low NAO values result in a signifcantly greater threat of U.S. hurricanes.

It looks like the correlation between the NAO index and precipitation (I assume this includes hurricanes?) weakens for the CONUS later in the season. Link
234. beell
Hour 120 was the most interesting from a semi-subtropical viewpoint. Pretty good bit of energy gets slung into the ATL.
Hope this don't stretch the blog...

A blurb on the VortexObjective RadarTrackingAndCirculation system for near-shore short-term hurricane prediction.
Anyone want to guess what the price of gas will be in Florida just after the next hurricane when everyone is running a generator, but only half the stations are pumping gas? We will need to invent a new word, because gouging will be inadequate to describe it.

I think the term "GORE-ing" will just about cover the way I'll feel...
235. aspectre 11:54 PM CDT on April 28, 2008
A blurb on the VortexObjective RadarTrackingAndCirculation system for near-shore short-term hurricane prediction.


Interesting read! The article mentions that the small window of helpful observation would do little to help with evacuation, but could help forecasters with flooding and wind damage.

But, the case in point mentioned (other than Humberto) of Charley in 2004 as its wind speeds ramped up from 110 miles per hour (Cat 2) to 145 miles per hour (Cat 4) in just six hours, shows that land-falling (obviously, the most critical part) forecasting has certainly had its problems.

Hopefully, Vortrac can close the gap on more accurate forecasting as the storms approach land. And, as storms can shift, even ever so slightly, as it makes landfall, perhaps more injury and death can be prevented.

Nice to hear that the NHC is now going to use it as a regular part of its arsenal in forecasting. Good post, aspectre, thanks!
Photobucket

Nargis likely to strengthen considering high ocean heat content.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
------------------------------------

03:00 AM UTC, The Severe Cyclonic Storm over southwest and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal has moved in a northerly direction and intensified into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Nargis [980 hPa[. The very severe cyclonic storm is located near 13.5N 85.5E or 550 km east-northeast of Chennai.

Current Dvorak Intensity is T4.0. Maximum 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 65 knots with an estimated central pressure of 980 hPa.

Sea condition is phenomenal around the system's center. Satellite imagery shows broken to solid intense to very intense convective clouds between 10.5N to 15.5N and 82.0E to 87.5E in association with the system.

FORECAST: THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE SLOWLY IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION FOR SOME MORE TIME AND THEREAFTER, IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARDS. FORECAST INTENSITY IN 24 hRS IS T5.0
What is T5.0 does that just mean cat 5 or is it there own scale?
241, 242, is there a limiting factor down the road for this storm I dont know about, because it looks like it would get much stronger than just a cat 3 judging by what conditions I have seen and comments about surrounding conditions. I also seem to recall the usual track is more toward due north for systems like this. (I'm no expert on Hurricane activity in this area but I know alot of the hurricane related flood events occur in Bangladesh area)
remarks:
290900z position near 13.6n 85.7e.
Tropical cyclone (tc) 01b (nargis), located approximately 560 nm
south-southwest of Calcutta, India, has tracked northeastward at
03 knots over the past 06 hours. Recent multispectral satellite
imagery and a 290430z AMSU-b microwave image show a marked
reduction in deep convection near the low level circulation
center. Recent intensity estimates from pgtw and knes suggest
this change in storm structure has produced some weakening, so
the initial intensity is reduced slightly to 80 knots. Interaction
between the upper level mesoscale anticyclone over the storm and a
second upper level anticyclone centered to the east of the system
appears to be inducing an area of convergence aloft. Subsidence
associated with this upper level convergence is likely responsible
for the recent loss of deep convection. Additionally, some drier
air originating from north central India is wrapping in toward the
storm center from the northwestern periphery of the circulation.
Entrainment of this drier air may also be impacting convective
development, although likely to a lesser extent than the previously-
discussed convergence aloft. The system has taken a northeastward
turn and accelerated very slightly over the past 06 hours, and is
expected to continue generally northeastward along the northwestern
periphery of a low to mid-level ridge to the southeast through the
forecast period. The track has been adjusted slightly equatorward
from the previous forecast in response to its recent tight, north-
eastward turn and a shift in the numerical model consensus. High
ocean heat content and an eventual improvement in upper-level
conditions, including improved outflow and lower vertical wind
shear, are still expected to produce intensification through
tau 48. Thereafter, increasing vertical wind shear should induce
some weakening. Overall, forecast intensity values have been
adjusted downward slightly due to anticipation of a less favorable
upper level environment than previously expected. Maximum
significant wave height at 290600z is 24 feet. Next warnings
at 291500z, 292100z, 300300z and 300900z.//
244. Thanks. Those would be limiting factors. I know the "monsoon" usually hits that area sometime soon, and tropical activity would likely be associated with it. Maybe some of those inhibiting factors are related. I believe it is high pressure movement that causes wind shift/monsoon season over there.
For those that want to be in the know

Climate change flap may end Dr. Gray's hurricane forecasts


Pretty sad. This is what it has come to though. Its not science anymore, its all political baby. Just soemthing else for conservative's and liberals to jab about.

The sheep's herd is getting bigger by the day. It's quite disgusting.
245. oriondarkwood 8:20 AM EDT on April 29, 2008
For those that want to be in the know
Climate change flap may end Dr. Gray's hurricane forecasts


Dr. Gray is essentially THE Icon of the modern era Hurricane research field, and, reguardless of what his position may be as to GW, I thought that science, and particularly colleges and universities, are supposed to be one of last bastions of "free throught" without fear of political or career retribution............Think Again....I hope that Dr. Gray weathers the storm (pun intended)............
Dr. Gray dates his intimacy with hurricanes from Helene, the strongest in the 1958 season. Together with his renowned mentor at the University of Chicago, Herbert Riehl, they talked the pilot of their plane, a converted B-50 Superfortress bomber, into dangerously close encounters with Helene as she skirted the Carolina coasts. Amid 150-mile-per-hour winds pummelling the plane -- "we took Dramamine," he says --he garnered his first inkling of the awesome force of sea and wind.

That real-world experience, and the many other hurricane-hunting forays that followed over the decades, gave him the insights that would lead to brilliant discoveries of how weather and climate worked, insights that theorizing in the abstract could not have produced.

After years of collecting data by flying into storms off Florida, for example, and finding no meaningful local patterns, he decided to investigate whether the forces commanding the immensely variable storms of the Atlantic lay oceans away. He searched for, and found, distant relationships --El Nino in the Pacific correlated with Atlantic storms, as did Atlantic hurricanes and quasi-biannual oscillations. QBIOs are winds in the tropical stratosphere that reverse their course every 12 to 14 months. The westerly QBIOs, Dr. Gray discovered, foretold major Atlantic storms, as did rain in West Africa and Caribbean sea-level pressure.

"The problem was that we'd been looking locally," Dr. Gray explains. "You had to look globally." When Dr. Gray says "look," he means that literally. The fruits of measurement and observation, he believes, can be trusted. Those of theoretical models at odds with the real world are likelier to mislead than to inform.

Link

Crankiness and senility are a Bad mix. Dr.Gray needs to exit stage right along with his Forecasts.
Which as recent years show..are meaningless.
What kind of evidence is there that Dr. Gray's views are what's motivating the university?
Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC)
Version 1 TC NARGIS V-max 84 knots Link
I hope we don't get into trashing Dr. Gray today,he's contributions to tropical predictions and what effects the tropical season is documented.He and his colleagues have done a great job.But as the last couple of seasons have shown,predicting how all the different conditions are going to set up is still a problem.
the GFS is forcasting a TS in the gulf of MX

The GFS is showing a Cold -Core system TAz..a Baroclinic entity that dosent do much...I'd give it a 25 % chance at happening..no more.

Check with Dr. Gray though. Im sure its forecasted..LOL


Gray has a need to strongly suggest the data is wrong,since his view on it differs from the Universities.
He hypes the side he favors.All well and good.But since he spoke up in Dec 06...the data has put him on the defensive.

Its the attitude..they differ on.
He willy-nillys others data sets..and holds his up as Gospel.
Bad way to fly..in the business he's in.
Why am I not surprised, our resident weather message board junkies are jumping on Dr. Gray.

hope we don't get into trashing Dr. Gray today,he's contributions to tropical predictions and what effects the tropical season is documented.He and his colleagues have done a great job.But as the last couple of seasons have shown,predicting how all the different conditions are going to set up is still a problem.

What else would you expect? He contradicts a theory that is widely accepted around these parts.

The sheep continue to herd....
Marines arent sheep.
Im a free thinker.

I post Dr. Grays view...and the recent controversy around it.I give no Personal Opinion on it

You just post..
The image Taz posted appears to be a warmcore system but shallow in nature. Maybe subtropical to tropical. A weak system tho.
Really?

Re # 260 I give no Personal Opinion on it

Re: #251 Dr.Gray needs to exit stage right along with his Forecasts.

Sounds like an opinion to me.

Through the forecast period conditions are not expected to be favorable for development.
LOL..you mistake Humor for opines.
Get a Blog..do an entry.
Jackonsville isnt that scary is it?
If Im being quoted..

Im reaching too..LOL
TC Nargis is projected to affect a relatively unpopulated area of Myanmar (Burma) by this weekend. This is fortunate for Myanmar and Bangladesh, who don't need another strong TC so soon after last season. This area of the country does not have large coastal flood plains or coastal cities. It is also not a major food producing region.

After hitting the coast, Nargis should move East over the inland hills of Myanmar. It will be a rain-maker and we may read about flooding and mudslides in some areas. Hopefully, Nargis stays on the projected path.
I think La Nina will last another month or two giving way to netural conditions around the heart of the season but a moderate to strong El Nino should be in place for 2008-2009 winter season....so enjoy the heat this summer because if a strong El Nino would persist into the winter expect another cold and wetter than average winter....
do we no yet how strong the Tornadoes where on monday??
good news for ca i hop this strong El Nino is w little more nic then the one we had in 2006 the 2006 El Nino was dry has a bone for ca so whats up this strong El Nino is a little ore nic this time around
TC Nargis projections were just updated. Seems path shifted slightly to the South later in this week, with projections now weakening the storm to a Cat-2 rather than Cat-3. Lets hope it doesn't drift any further South or Rangoon (pop. 6 Million) and surrounding floodplain farmland is going to get it.

Why the weakening projection? Sea surface temps are almost ideal for tropical development, and very little wind shear is present. Nargis' forward speed will increase as it moves to the East, but not enough to impede strengthening. Why the downgrade projections (from Cat-4 two days ago, Cat-3 this morning, Cat-2 latest)?
Global warming will be the biggest cash in for poloticans the world has ever seen.With taxes on fuel and fines the poor will be poorer and those in polotics will be wealthy.What a crime and a hoax.Open your wallets and do and think what those in power tell you.
come on... do you all need a storm out there or something to prevent you from going blood thirsty?
dr gray, as everyone in the business has to do a lot of guessing, weather is never 100% accurate.
and like it or not, his guessing is or was better than anyone else's and that is why every time he decides to say how many storms there will be a season everyone pays attention.
if you consider your talent to be better developed than his, be my guest and start sending your annual predictions to the nation.
help4u, don't forget the implications of this...

@help4u

It's generally not the ones in politics who are wealthy, it is those who have the politicians in their pockets.
Help4u,
I think the fuel prices are hurting more then just the poor, aviation for instance is hurting.
276. JRRP
GFS show a TC in east pacific near Mexico mayo 13
Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts are like ones Dog,Opinions and Cars.
Every one has one and theirs is the best.

They serve NO purpose other than controversy.


And an Oilman President rants within this Hour about how a Refinery hasnt been built in the US since 78-79.

I should know.Shell built it here in Norco. La.along with a Ethylene Plant we did the furnaces for too.We Being Pullman /Kelloggthen.Now Its another entity.
Non-union.Kellogg Brown & Root

EPA regulations, and Govt permitting processes have kept America hostage to the Saudis.
Not Congress.One can have a Billion BBLs of oil from Domestic or Foreign imports,but you can refine it all at a fixed,finite known rate.
Best learn and google the term,Catcracker, or Cataltyic Crude Oil Processing. Its going to get a lot of media play the next few weeks.

Oh,and the Saudi Big Robes are coming for another vist.
Photobucket

Shear doesn't look that strong, but it doesn't look as tightly would with good banding features as it did yesterday evening.
279. Beta
Have they retired any Hurricane Names from the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season yet?
I believe that the conference is in session on the 07 retired names. But since there were no major Deaths recorded..even with the Landfalls.I'd personally expect no names will be retired.

2007 at a glance Link
Help4u
"Global warming will be the biggest cash in for poloticans the world has ever seen.With taxes on fuel and fines the poor will be poorer and those in polotics will be wealthy.What a crime and a hoax.Open your wallets and do and think what those in power tell you."

Didn't the price of crude make a run at $120 a barrel last week? Gasoline is $3.60 per gallon nationally. I think we are paying off the wrong people, which are the energy companies such as Exxon Mobile. Wasn't the whole logic behind all these tax breaks to the energy companies to provide us with commodities at a reasonable price?

It looks to me that the Bush energy policy is a total bust.
It's not unusual to see that Dr. Gray is now the subject of some scorn and ridicule. Happens to prophets all the time.
We believe what makes us comfortable, all the time.
Good afternoon,

I see that this blog hasnt changed much......Same ole know-it-alls stirring up controversy. Dr. Gray has forgotten more weather knowledge than you critics will ever know. LOL
Dr. Gray been round long time. He will weather the storm, a lot better than Bill Proenza did with lasts years controversy du jour.
Well, that just proves it . Nobody knows what he did, LOL
It's a media thingy.........
I'm going to try to keep my comments in Doc's blog limited to just weather-related info; but, with just this one comment.

The government can not continue to print money and interject it into the economy - that multiplies inflation - it's Economics 101. The stimulus money being issued is reportedly only going to help grocery stores and discounters to help folks buy meat and eggs - not TV's, clothes, etc.

Oil prices, largely, are at the mercy of the dollar's value. A weaker dollar, simply means that it takes more dollars to buy oil.

However, it's going to be a sad state when a wheelbarrow full of money still can't buy anything - and there's also little to buy.

Lean times - I expect 2009 to be even leaner. It'll be interesting to see how we "weather" this storm.

Same ole know-it-alls stirring up controversy. Dr. Gray has forgotten more weather knowledge than you critics will ever know. LOL

weatherboyfsu - good observation. LOL.
At $110 per 42-gallon barrel, crude oil market price is $2.61/gallon. Transport, pipelines, refining, storage and shipping costs money. Gasoline prices at pump are $3.50-$3.75. Thats only roughly $1.00 mark-up per gallon including tax.

Don't blame the refineries. They are doing everything possible to increase production and maintain flow of product at reasonable prices.

Regarding the TROPICAL WEATHER (hint), we all need to hope the Houston, Freeport, Baytown and Port Arthur, Texas areas are hurricane free this year. If crude oil supply has driven prices this high... shut down a few refineries for a month and watch what happens to the pricing.

A major hurricane impact to the Houston ship channel or Baytown may not be as dramatic as Katrina... but it will affect this nation as much or more. Forget pricing... can we say "Gas Rationing"? No kidding.
Aaaah, MLC.
I've been wanting to post a similiar thing for some time. But good manners prevented me doing that. I still feel that I am an outsider, in an American forum here. Good one.
But note, there are some freaks on here that will probably hit you with an 'ignore' for that one. heheheheh
I see the same folks bringing zero to the table here.


Except their intimate knowledge of nothing.. or skirting around what they really want to say and to whom. LOL!!!!!
Refineries are at capacity.Its the Regulatory agencies that are making it impossible for a permit to expand.

StormW, part of the problem with high gasoline prices is the fact that no new refineries have been built over past 30 years. We sell about 15 million new vehicles per year in the US. I don't know how many of the old vehicles go out of circulation. With more vehicles coming online due to the population increasing, demand for gas will only go up.

Lets hope Hurricane activity in the GOM is at a minimum this year.
"Sustainability" - hhhhmmm, wonder where I've heard that word before? lol
GFS - Global Forecasting Shrimp
Our recreational shrimping (inshore, with lights & dip nets) seems to be ending early this year, like '06 &'07, but unlike '04 & '05. The weather (wind driven currents, rain/salinity, water temps, etc. maybe even African dust - who knows) have a lot to do with it. Do the shrimp know something we (Dr. Gray - LOL) doesn't?
The 2005 Shrimp June Forecast was spot on..

Prepare Now..
worry when a Threat develops.
Take action when told to do so.
Anticipate evacuations and be ready to do so when asked.

Rant over..LOL

CAT-5 Shrimp from the GOM

294. GainesvilleGator 1:03 PM EDT We sell about 15 million new vehicles per year in the US. I don't know how many of the old vehicles go out of circulation. With more vehicles coming online due to the population increasing, demand for gas will only go up.

My car gets twice the mileage of the one it replaced - same thing with the boat. I do find myself putting a few more miles on though.
I believe the whole gasoline problem is a mix of pinched refining capacity, inability to drill domestically, and the weak dollar. Couple this with ridiculous biofuels subsidies that encourage the production of corn for ethanol over corn for food and average consumers are getting hit on all sides: higher energy and food prices coupled with a devalued dollar.
It's interesting to note, though, that Congress never seriously talks of cutting the gasoline taxes to give consumers a break.
New blog
Shrimp named Charlie
NOAA to modernize climate data collection network:

Link

Unfortunately, the modernization effort will do little to address the poor siting issues that have plagued the datasets, necessitating the need for "corrections".
I have been monitoring this area for the past few days incase in showed any signs of development. Except for some increase in convection, little is expected from this. This area of low pressure is located near 33.8N-47.9W moving off to the east-southeast. Satellite derived winds from CIMSS showed the disturbance is embedded within a broad upper level low pressure system. Quickscat show the low pressure area is producing gale force winds well away from the center. The system remains baroclinic in nature and conditions do not appear conducive for subtropical development. The forecast calls for the system to be absorbed into a larger low pressure area by Sunday and race off towards the far NE Atlantic by the following Wednesday.