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Postcards from the AMS hurricane conference: Bob Simpson honored

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:49 PM GMT on April 17, 2012

I'm in Ponte Verda Beach, Florida this week, where the world's hurricane experts are gathered to attend the 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society. The conference started out with a remarkable blast from the past, when Dr. Bob Simpson, one of the originators of the familiar Saffir-Simpson scale, gave the opening talk. Dr. Simpson has been a meteorologist since 1940, and is in amazing shape for someone who turns 100 years old later this year. Dr. Simpson served as director of the National Hurricane Center, and was joined in the audience by two other NHC directors, May Mayfield and BIll Read. Dr. Simpson described his work with civil engineer Herb Saffir, who worked for the United Nations to develop low-cost housing all over the world that could withstand strong winds. Saffir and Simpson worked together, using data from aerial surveys of hurricane damage that began with Hurricane Audrey in 1957, to help develop their famous scale, which assigns a Category 1 through 5 rating to a storm based on its winds. The Saffir-Simpson scale was finally published in 1973, and gained widespread popularity after Neil Frank replaced Simpson as the director of NHC in 1974. The audience gave Dr. Simpson a standing ovation for making the effort to travel here and give a talk.


Figure 1. Dr. Robert Simpson addresses the 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society on April 15, 2012, assisted by session chair Dr. Greg Holland.

Hurricane Andrew: 20 years later: What have we learned?
This year marks the 20th anniversary of the incredible devastation wrought in South Florida by Category 5 Hurricane Andrew. Hurricane Andrew was a wake-up call for how poorly buildings were constructed in hurricane-prone areas, and Dr. Tim Marshall of Haag Engineering discussed what we learned from the hurricane. Interestingly, much of Andrew's damage occurred in the storm's outer bands, before the peak winds arrived. The heaviest damage occurred in subdivisions that had poor building codes. Removal of asphalt shingles was a big problem. A lot of shingles were fastened with staples that ripped out, due to poor location, orientation, and depth. Often the secondary felt barrier below the shingles was not glued on, and was ripped away once the shingles ripped away. Once you lose your shingles, you often lose your house, since rain can then get into the house and destroy the interior. Andrew led to a complete revision of the building codes in South Florida, which are now the strongest in the nation. The new building codes, however, still allow for some dubious practices--like stapling shingles to roofs, and the placement of loose gravel on roof tops. Marshall concluded the talk by emphasizing that taping windows doesn't work. Board up your windows, or better yet, use steel shutters.


Figure 2. Hurricane Andrew as it closed in on South Florida 20 years ago. Image credit: NOAA.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Dr. Simpson greatly advanced hurricane science, and is more than worthy of honor. We need more like him...

I lived through Andrew, and, in fact, worked as the technical services director for a very large roofing contractor at the time. There have been many improvements to the local building codes in the 20 years since Andrew, but I can virtually guarantee that, come the next hurricane strike in the area, there'll be multiple catastrophic roofing failures, and the whole cycle of fingerpointing and increased stringency will begin anew.

Thanks, Dr. Masters!
Interesting.
Thanks Dr. Masters.
Did you hear any talk of the subtropical low everybody was worried about?
Some great tips, I know many who tape because they don't have the money, but in the end it just makes matters worse if a storm that size is coming... may lead to a false sense of security.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Interesting.
Thanks Dr. Masters.
Did you hear any talk of the subtropical low everybody was worried about?


It's not sub tropical. It's just low in the north Atlantic like the ones you would see across the north Pacific.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Dr. Simpson greatly advanced hurricane science, and is more than worthy of honor. We need more like him...

I lived through Andrew, and, in fact, worked as the technical services director for a very large roofing contractor at the time. There have been many improvements to the local building codes in the 20 years since Andrew, but I can virtually guarantee that, come the next hurricane strike in the area, there'll be multiple catastrophic roofing failures, and the whole cycle of fingerpointing and increased stringency will begin anew.

Thanks, Dr. Masters!


The only way to have a safe structure during a hurricane of that magnitude would be to have a dome house.

I have seen spray on plastic to seal the shingles and give a waterproof coating. Has anyone looked into how that helps with wind resilience? I would think with no edge to get under, it might help considerably.

I know they are small, but has anyone seen a map of quakes tied to fracking? Do any of the ring-o-fire California quakes fall into the fluid injection induced category?
A bit off topic but some possible good news on the way for West Texas and New Mexico

8-14 outlook:






US Drought Monitor:




Good morning folks..better news in on our rain chances, nowhave a great day folks they are 30-40% each afternoon, looks like our afternoon sea breeze is coming back and this weekend might be wonderful for rain..
Quoting StormTracker2K:


It's not sub tropical. It's just low in the north Atlantic like the ones you would see across the north Pacific.
\

correction.
It was supposed to be subtropical.

The new GFS runs with the low along the coast dont look good for me.

Looks like 3 days of camping just sitting under tents and waking up in 6 inches of water.
I hope it trends north enough to put N GA in the warm sector.
92 was a bad yr it would of been terminal if the A storm hit a bit more north
The only good roof is a steel roof.

No contest.

Edit:
Even roofs with clay tiles have the inevitable problem of felt deterioration beneath them...and then the roof leaks.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Interesting.
Thanks Dr. Masters.
Did you hear any talk of the subtropical low everybody was worried about?


It's baroclinic.
Quoting theshepherd:
The only good roof is a steel roof.

No contest.

Edit:
Even roofs with clay tiles have the inevitable problem of felt deterioration beneath them...and then the roof leaks.
I wouldn't say that's entirely true. Modern tile underlayments, properly installed, provide a solid and durable waterproof barrier. The tile is there to protect the underlayment; if it's also properly installed, the roof behaves as it's designed to. Steel roofing materials and methods are getting better, to be sure, but experience has taught me that a professionally installed and properly maintained concrete tile roof will protect a building from pretty much anything that comes from above.

Asphalt shingles, on the other hand? No, thanks. Not in high-wind zones, anyway...
Very cool about Dr. Simpson. thanks for the update.
Thanks Dr. Masters
Good morning all

one more quake in Chille...M6.7 yesterday
April 16, 2011

April 16, 2012
Welcome to my back yard Dr. Masters. Ponte Vedra is absolutely beautiful, you should play some golf at TPC Sawgrass while you're here. Today may be your best day as rain chances pick up later this week!
Well it's clear that 91L won't be showing up today. So how's its chances looking for tomorrow?

Interesting Sea-Ice Extent chart from DMI

Click on the link, then use Control Plus to see details.

Highest extent since 2005... Yet one must remember that 2005 showed the greatest plunge in extent (of any year on the chart) from ~20April to ~1July. And solidly held the low extent record for the ~20May-to-1July period until last year, when the 2011 melt took the record for portions of that period.

Winter-thru-early-spring 2005 is also notorious for having the first obvious Arctic OzoneHole.
Miami NWS Discussion

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON THE EVOLUTION OF A
POTENTIALLY STRONG STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED
TO DIG SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAIN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...THEN EAST ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST STATES TOWARD NRN
FLORIDA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE
MEAN ALONG WITH THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL
CYCLES WITH REGARD TO THIS FEATURE OF INTEREST. HOWEVER...FOR THE
TIMING...THEY CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION
ACROSS THE REGION EACH CYCLE.

AT THIS TIME...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS GENERALLY INDICATE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A SQUALL LINE
AND A WARM FRONT WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE CENTRAL AND NRN GULF
COAST STATES SOMETIME SATURDAY...THEN PROGRESSING EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AND OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE SUNDAY TIME FRAME.
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME AND INTERESTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE MID/SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
Is the low still attached to the front or is it now detached?
Quoting aspectre:
Interesting Sea-Ice Extent chart from DMI

Click on the link, then use Control Plus to see details.

Highest extent since 2005... Yet one must remember that 2005 showed the greatest plunge in extent (of any year on the chart) from ~20April to ~1July. And solidly held the low extent record from between ~20May to ~1July until last year, when the 2011 melt took the record for portions of that period.

Also remember that perennial is decreasing rapidly....while thinner ice is iincreasing and the thinner ice is likely to melt rapidly during the northern hemisphere's summer
April 16, 2011

April 16, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
I wouldn't say that's entirely true. Modern tile underlayments, properly installed, provide a solid and durable waterproof barrier. The tile is there to protect the underlayment; if it's also properly installed, the roof behaves as it's designed to. Steel roofing materials and methods are getting better, to be sure, but experience has taught me that a professionally installed and properly maintained concrete tile roof will protect a building from pretty much anything that comes from above.

Asphalt shingles, on the other hand? No, thanks. Not in high-wind zones, anyway...
Look Nea...LOOK.....2012 will be a BUST.......:)
Quoting islander101010:
92 was a bad yr it would of been terminal if the A storm hit a bit more north


With the number of cities along the FL east coast, anything would've been bad more north no matter what.
Quoting nigel20:

Also remember that perennial is decreasing rapidly....while thinner ice is iincreasing and the thinner ice is likely to melt rapidly during the northern hemisphere's summer


This is quite true. Not only does the thinner ice melt away quicker, but is also more subject to being blown out or floated out by the currents. More of the Arctic waters may be open to water skiing events this summer. ... I would still wear a wet suit. ;-) Uh, one that is less likely to attract orcas.
Retirement flight for Discovery! Link
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Miami NWS Discussion

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON THE EVOLUTION OF A
POTENTIALLY STRONG STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED
TO DIG SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAIN STATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...THEN EAST ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST STATES TOWARD NRN
FLORIDA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE
MEAN ALONG WITH THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL
CYCLES WITH REGARD TO THIS FEATURE OF INTEREST. HOWEVER...FOR THE
TIMING...THEY CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION
ACROSS THE REGION EACH CYCLE.

AT THIS TIME...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS GENERALLY INDICATE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A SQUALL LINE
AND A WARM FRONT WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE CENTRAL AND NRN GULF
COAST STATES SOMETIME SATURDAY...THEN PROGRESSING EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AND OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE SUNDAY TIME FRAME.
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME AND INTERESTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE MID/SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.


Miami hasn't jumped on it fully yet but WPTV has some confidence in it:

Quoting caneswatch:


Miami hasn't jumped on it fully yet but WPTV has some confidence in it:



Lows in the 50s...Gotta love it!
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


This is quite true. Not only does the thinner ice melt away quicker, but is also more subject to being blown out or floated out by the currents. More of the Arctic waters may be open to water skiing events this summer. ... I would still wear a wet suit. ;-) Uh, one that is less likely to attract orcas.

agreed
Most can take a breather today...

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
MSC051-163-171900-
/O.NEW.KJAN.FF.W.0041.120417T1454Z-120417T1900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
954 AM CDT TUE APR 17 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
HOLMES COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
YAZOO COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF YAZOO CITY...

* UNTIL 200 PM CDT

* AT 953 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN MOVING REPEATEDLY NORTH
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. ESTIMATED RADAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ON THE
ORDER OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES...HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST THREE
HOURS.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
COXBURG...EMORY...TOLARVILLE...BROZVILLE...EBENEZE R...FRANKLIN...
BOWLING GREEN...MCMILLAN...MIDWAY AND LEXINGTON

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WARNED AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL TWO INCHES POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS
MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3322 8978 3267 9022 3266 9028 3261 9033
3258 9040 3258 9044 3251 9052 3251 9055
3253 9056 3253 9059 3255 9059 3255 9066
3258 9066 3277 9050 3329 9002

$$

EEC
With all the crazy tornadic activity this past few days, what are the chances of Florida seeing tornados this weekend?.........................................H AZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
516 AM EDT TUE APR 17 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-172130 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
516 AM EDT TUE APR 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF OUR REGION IS IN SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT
WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH LOW HUMIDITIES CAN CAUSE WILD FIRES TO
SPREAD RAPIDLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF TOWARD NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND WILL
BE PRECEDED BY A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST SUCH AS THE INTENSITY AND ACTUAL TRACK
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND INDICATES A POTENTIAL THREAT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

JILLSON
Quoting LargoFl:
With all the crazy tornadic activity this past few days, what are the chances of Florida seeing tornados this weekend?.........................................H AZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
516 AM EDT TUE APR 17 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-0 65-172130 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
516 AM EDT TUE APR 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF OUR REGION IS IN SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT
WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH LOW HUMIDITIES CAN CAUSE WILD FIRES TO
SPREAD RAPIDLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF TOWARD NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND WILL
BE PRECEDED BY A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST SUCH AS THE INTENSITY AND ACTUAL TRACK
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND INDICATES A POTENTIAL THREAT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

JILLSON


It does appear the chances for tornado some of them strong could be possible this weekend across FL.
Quoting caneswatch:


Miami hasn't jumped on it fully yet but WPTV has some confidence in it:



Don't count on drying or any cool air next week as the GFS and to a degree the Euro keeps us wet for the next 10 days.
This could be a major disaster if this erupts, a warning is out for a possible eruption..anyone who has been to mexico city knows its teeming with people, many millions and where..would they run to in the event it does happen?.....................................Mexico City (CNN) -- Scientists recorded continuing volcanic activity Tuesday in Mexico's Popocatepetl volcano, which sits just southeast of Mexico City and its more than 19 million residents.
Quoting LargoFl:
With all the crazy tornadic activity this past few days, what are the chances of Florida seeing tornados this weekend?.........................................H AZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
516 AM EDT TUE APR 17 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-0 65-172130 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
516 AM EDT TUE APR 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF OUR REGION IS IN SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT
WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH LOW HUMIDITIES CAN CAUSE WILD FIRES TO
SPREAD RAPIDLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF TOWARD NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND WILL
BE PRECEDED BY A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST SUCH AS THE INTENSITY AND ACTUAL TRACK
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND INDICATES A POTENTIAL THREAT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

JILLSON

Very unlikely. Florida doesn't get strong tornadoes often, due to their unique atmospheric dynamics. You need bulk shear to get a strong tornado, and the kind of setup we see over the plains doesn't happen much over Florida. Severe storms are much more likely, as the atmosphere over FL tends to be more unstable, and steep lapse rates are common - but shear is rarely strong enough for anything past an EF1.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


It does appear the chances for tornado some of them strong could be possible this weekend across FL.
oh oh..I was afraid of that..well we'll see
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Lows in the 50s...Gotta love it!


In late April too! Muy bueno!
Quoting StormTracker2K:


It does appear the chances for tornado some of them strong could be possible this weekend across FL.

Chance for severe weather does not equal chance for tornadoes. See my post above for why.
Here's the 06Z run and it looks rough over FL. Also dewpoints according the GFS are forecast to rise in the low to mid 70's which very deep tropical air. An airmass that we haven't seen since last October.

Quoting caneswatch:


In late April too! Muy bueno!

It is looking incredibly nice here in SE TX, too... highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s, lows in the upper 50s. Are we getting a 4th week of Spring here, before the blast furnace is turned back on?
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Don't count on drying or any cool air next week as the GFS and to a degree the Euro keeps us wet for the next 10 days.


I saw the 8-14 day precip. outlook and it kept us above normal for rain. The rain is much needed, the drought index is in the mid-600s right now.
Later guys
Quoting jeffs713:

Chance for severe weather does not equal chance for tornadoes. See my post above for why.


Someone posted on here last week of an EF-4 tornado that came across C FL. I believe it was in April 1966.

Quoting jeffs713:

It is looking incredibly nice here in SE TX, too... highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s, lows in the upper 50s. Are we getting a 4th week of Spring here, before the blast furnace is turned back on?


I hope spring continues for a bit, walking outside and it being nice and comfy is a nice change from normal.
here is the latest imagoe of the volcano

So, Hydrus

What was wrong with your computer? Just curious....
Quoting LargoFl:
here is the latest imagoe of the volcano

not for nothing, if this..was just a mere 25 miles from MY city..doing this..I'd be on the highway headed far far away
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Someone posted on here last week of an EF-4 tornado that came across C FL. I believe it was in April 1966.

If I went back 46 years, I'm sure I could find an EF-4 going through the Houston area, too. I'm just saying that it is not LIKELY. I never said anything about it being impossible.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Someone posted on here last week of an EF-4 tornado that came across C FL. I believe it was in April 1966.

there is a page on floriad's tornado's one life had the strongest since 1957 as an ef-2.....but This page has an amazing quote....................The Sunshine State may be best known for attracting hurricanes, but a Weather Channel study released Thursday shows Florida leads the pack in tornadoes.
Quoting LargoFl:
there is a page on floriad's tornado's one life had the strongest since 1957 as an ef-2.....but This page has an amazing quote....................The Sunshine State may be best known for attracting hurricanes, but a Weather Channel study released Thursday shows Florida leads the pack in tornadoes.
He found that Florida came in first with 12.3 tornadoes per 10,000 square miles. There are several reasons why the state made the top of the pack. First, Florida can get a tornado any time of year. Also, it’s highest in the number of thunderstorms, and these are the types of systems that spawn tornadoes, Forbes noted.
stormtracker..do you remember this one from 2007?..........The first killer tornado tracked from Sumter Co into northwest Lake Co in the area of The Villages, Lady Lake, Wildwood, and Weirsdale, rated EF-3 (winds estimated up to 155-160 mph), along a 15-mile path up to ¼ mile wide.
It struck Lady Lake at 3:20 AM.
there were 3 tornado's that day..2-ef3's and 1-ef-1
Thanks Dr. M and enjoy the Conference. God Speed to Dr. Simpson; I am sure it was very moving to see him at the Event.

Another thing we learned from Hurricane Andrew. There were a few write ups on one Gentleman who cut his plywood to fit "inside" the windowsill (and he might have attached them with door bolts to the inside of his windows). If memory serves me correct, his house was one of the only ones standing on his block after Andrew hit as the winds from the storm ripped off the plywood covering on other homes surrounding his which were done in the "regular" way of just bolting or nailing the plywood to the outside of the windows (and blown away by the strong winds creeping in along the edges of the plywood). I am sure that "inside" method had been around for a while, but, after Andrew, we saw a huge marketing and distribution effort by Plylox for their clips which secure the plywood inside the windowsill. I took the Man's lead and have a complete set of "inside" the windowsill triple-ply board with door bolts (and corresponding holes inside the windowsills) in the garage for all the windows in my home if the need arises.
As I mentioned in my original post... most Florida tornadoes are *not* strong. Most are of the weak, EF0 and EF1 variety. Still damaging, still threatening, but not the 1/4-mile wide monster EF4s in the plains.
Quoting jeffs713:
If I went back 46 years, I'm sure I could find an EF-4 going through the Houston area, too. I'm just saying that it is not LIKELY. I never said anything about it being impossible.

You don't even need to go all that far back. An F4 tornado has been reported in Houston as recently as 1992.

Link

*EDIT* Didn't read any of the prior conversation until now, just pointing out that Houston has had an F4 before.

Speaking About Tornados
Here is a Ranbow Tornado Seen In Space
Quoting 1900hurricane:

You don't even need to go all that far back. An F4 tornado has been reported in Houston as recently as 1992.

Link

*EDIT* Didn't read any of the prior conversation until now, just pointing out that Houston has had an F4 before.

I remember the F2 that hit Kelliwood (listed as Tornado #2 on that site). It was a wedge-type tornado, and was likely the closest I've ever been to a tornado (about a mile or so)
Quoting LargoFl:
there is a page on floriad's tornado's one life had the strongest since 1957 as an ef-2.....but This page has an amazing quote....................The Sunshine State may be best known for attracting hurricanes, but a Weather Channel study released Thursday shows Florida leads the pack in tornadoes.


Here are just the tornadoes listed for my county, Pinellas County, since 1951:

DEC 18, 1951 009 1800 0 0 F1 103
MAY 30, 1952 007 1100 0 0 F2 103
JUN 13, 1952 008 1200 0 0 F1 103
JUN 29, 1952 009 1100 0 0 F1 103
JUN 05, 1953 009 0845 0 0 F0 103
JUN 18, 1953 010 0300 0 0 F1 103
AUG 20, 1954 010 1745 0 0 F1 103
MAY 05, 1961 009 1615 0 0 F2 103
MAY 30, 1963 006 1723 0 0 F1 103
AUG 13, 1963 022 1900 0 0 F2 103
AUG 21, 1963 023 1245 0 0 F2 103
AUG 22, 1963 024 1300 0 0 F1 103
MAR 20, 1964 007 0500 0 1 F1 103
AUG 21, 1964 023 1015 0 2 F1 103
APR 04, 1966 001 0700 0 10 F4 103
APR 04, 1966 002 0715 0 0 F2 103
APR 28, 1966 004 1600 0 0 F1 103
JUN 06, 1966 008 1430 0 1 F1 103
AUG 28, 1966 019 1600 0 0 F1 103
SEP 05, 1966 020 0830 0 0 F0 103
DEC 28, 1967 023 0910 0 0 F2 103
JAN 23, 1968 001 2110 0 0 F1 103
MAY 19, 1968 012 1310 0 0 F1 103
JLY 14, 1968 026 1410 0 0 F1 103
JLY 14, 1968 027 2330 0 0 F1 103
NOV 09, 1968 047 1250 0 0 F1 103
NOV 11, 1968 052 1015 0 0 F1 103
DEC 10, 1969 045 0540 0 1 F2 103
JAN 02, 1972 001 1300 0 0 F0 103
MAR 17, 1973 012 0200 0 0 F1 103
JUN 02, 1973 035 1800 0 0 F0 103
OCT 31, 1973 042 2130 0 9 F2 103
FEB 19, 1974 005 1530 0 2 F1 103
JLY 25, 1974 041 1115 0 0 F0 103
MAY 26, 1975 046 2000 0 0 F1 103
AUG 17, 1975 074 1120 0 0 F0 103
SEP 11, 1975 081 1800 0 0 F0 103
JAN 08, 1976 002 1000 0 0 F0 103
APR 08, 1976 017 1215 0 2 F0 103
JLY 07, 1976 050 1735 0 0 F0 103
AUG 12, 1976 059 1650 1 21 F1 103
MAY 04, 1978 036 0947 3 94 F3 103
JUN 08, 1978 049 0700 0 0 F0 103
JUN 29, 1978 059 1043 0 2 F0 103
MAY 08, 1979 022 0600 0 0 F0 103
MAY 08, 1979 027 0945 0 0 F0 103
MAY 24, 1979 041 1200 0 0 F1 103
SEP 01, 1979 063 1500 0 0 F1 103
SEP 25, 1979 081 1540 0 0 F1 103
OCT 05, 1979 087 0620 0 0 F0 103
JUN 19, 1981 029 1830 0 1 F0 103
JLY 15, 1981 045 0315 0 0 F0 103
DEC 15, 1981 061 0825 0 5 F2 103
MAR 06, 1982 004 0000 0 0 F0 103
SEP 21, 1982 061 0905 0 0 F1 103
FEB 02, 1983 009 0500 0 1 F1 103
DEC 11, 1983 078 2200 0 0 F2 103
MAR 15, 1985 003 1008 0 2 F1 103
MAY 20, 1986 022 0120 0 0 F0 103
JUN 03, 1986 026 1515 0 0 F0 103
JUN 12, 1986 029 0720 0 0 F0 103
JUN 18, 1987 018 2000 0 0 F0 103
JLY 06, 1987 027 1526 0 0 F0 103
JLY 15, 1988 022 1030 0 0 F0 103
JLY 25, 1988 023 1100 0 0 F0 103
AUG 14, 1988 027 1450 0 0 F0 103
SEP 08, 1988 030 1950 0 0 F0 103
NOV 22, 1988 043 2332 0 0 F0 103
NOV 22, 1988 044 2350 0 0 F0 103
DEC 11, 1988 045 1459 0 0 F0 103
AUG 10, 1989 056 1335 0 0 F0 103
JUN 07, 1990 015 1555 0 0 F0 103
AUG 19, 1990 044 1310 0 0 F0 103
JAN 19, 1991 005 2208 0 0 F0 103
APR 25, 1991 021 1317 0 0 F0 103
APR 25, 1991 022 1335 0 0 F1 103
MAY 16, 1991 031 1240 0 0 F0 103
MAY 16, 1991 032 1555 0 0 F0 103
MAY 17, 1991 033 1540 0 0 F0 103
JLY 20, 1991 047 1345 0 0 F0 103
FEB 05, 1992 003 0310 0 0 F0 103
FEB 05, 1992 005 1540 0 0 F0 103
FEB 05, 1992 006 1548 0 0 F0 103
JUN 17, 1992 021 1637 0 0 F1 103
JLY 12, 1992 029 1015 0 6 F2 103
JLY 19, 1992 032 1042 0 0 F1 103
JLY 20, 1992 034 1605 0 0 F0 103
JLY 20, 1992 035 1655 0 0 F0 103
JLY 22, 1992 036 1630 0 0 F0 103
SEP 01, 1992 041 1752 0 0 F0 103
OCT 03, 1992 045 0840 1 0 F2 103
OCT 03, 1992 046 0928 0 0 F1 103
OCT 03, 1992 047 0930 3 75 F3 103
JAN 16, 1993 004 0420 0 0 F0 103
MAR 12, 1993 012 2300 0 0 F0 103
JUN 14, 1993 037 1745 0 0 F1 103
JUN 15, 1993 038 1715 0 0 F0 103
JLY 14, 1993 047 1520 0 0 F1 103
AUG 09, 1993 053 1708 0 0 F0 103
AUG 09, 1993 054 1735 0 0 F1 103
JLY 11, 1994 043 1830 0 0 F0 103
JLY 12, 1995 036 1215 0 1 F1 103



Here is the link to the source:Link




And that only goes to 1995... We got a lot of tornadoes here although as you can see high end tornadoes are pretty rare, only 3 between 1951 and 1995, but still, just in our county there have been 3, including an F4.
er, wasn't it Max Mayfield ?, not May.....
Quoting Jedkins01:
.
The Tampa tornado was bad, and crossed the state at about its widest as far as the peninsula,s concerned.From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search

The 1966 Tampa tornado family was a deadly tornado family that affected the central Florida corridor from the Tampa Bay area to Brevard County on April 4, 1966. Two tornadoes affected the region, each of which featured a path length in excess of 100 miles (160 km). One of the tornadoes produced estimated F4 damage on the Fujita scale; it remains one of only two F4 tornadoes to strike the U.S. state of Florida, the other of which occurred in 1958.[1] Both F4 tornadoes occurred during El Ni%uFFFDo years.[2] Eleven people were killed across the state, including three in the city of Tampa and seven in Polk County. It remains the fourth deadliest tornado event recorded in Florida; only tornadoes on March 1962, February 2007, and February 1998 caused more deaths in the state.[3] All of the events were induced by non-tropical cyclones.[4] The two tornadoes are officially listed as continuous events, but the tornadoes' damage paths did not cross the entire state, and downbursts may have been responsible for destruction near Lake Juliana and the Kissimmee%u2013Saint Cloud area. However, the combination of tornado and downburst destruction was continuous in central Florida.A squall line affected the central Florida peninsula on April 4, and both tornadoes originated as waterspouts over the Gulf of Mexico.[6] The two tornadoes were spawned from a single thunderstorm that entered the Tampa Bay region, and they are believed to have represented a tornado family.[3] The first tornado touched down around 8:00 a.m. near Largo, Florida in Pinellas County. It damaged 36%u201340 houses in the Saint Petersburg and Clearwater area.[6][7] Later, it continued across the northern side of Tampa, where it demolished 150%u2013158 homes and caused significant damages to 186 residences.[5][6][8] The tornado caused damage to a junior high school,[7] and it ripped roofs from homes and one dormitory on the University of South Florida's campus.[5] Losses in the Tampa Bay area reached $4,000,000 (1966 USD).[5] It moved east-northeast into Polk County and progressed over the northern side of Lakeland and Saint Cloud. Gibsonia and Galloway received the most severe damages in Polk County; more than 100 homes were demolished in the area, and seven deaths occurred. The tornado also destroyed several trailers from the Lake Juliana area near Auburndale to north of Haines City.[7] It eventually moved over the Cocoa area and lifted between Courtenay and Merritt Island. The tornado produced F4 damage in Polk County,[5] and it was significantly more damaging than the second one; total damages reached $5%u201350 million (1966 USD).

The second tornado touched down fifteen minutes later than its predecessor near the Sunshine Skyway Bridge, where it lifted a 23 foot (7 m) trailer and an automobile.[6] It moved inland over central Florida and closely paralleled the path of the more powerful first tornado. It crossed Winter Haven, passed near Rockledge, and lifted near the Merritt Island[5] area in Brevard County. Total damages reached $50%u2013100,000, and no deaths occurred. The funnel remained aloft for most of its life span, and maximum damage was typical of a F3 tornado.[1][5] Fifteen homes were dismantled in Lakeland, while homes and businesses were demolished in northern Winter Haven. Warehouses were leveled south of Haines City, while Citrus trees and trailers were impacted near Auburndale.[5] In the Cocoa Beach area, 150 trailers were destroyed, resulting in more than 100 injuries. 20%u201323 frame structures and a shopping center were also demolished.[5][7] 140 people were injured by the tornado; the majority of the injuries occurred in Brevard County, where 133 people were transported to a hospital in Cocoa Beach.[5] Widespread looting was reported in some localized areas after the passage of the tornadoes in Hillsborough and Polk counties; a total of 200 National Guardsmen were deployed to the two counties, while lesser numbers were ordered to the city of Cocoa.[6] Damage in the Lakeland area was compared to the aftermath of the Normandy invasion during World War II.[6]

Initially, the event was poorly forecasted by the U.S. Weather Bureau, since meteorological analysis did not indicate the presence of an adjacent surface low, which would enhance conditions for tornadoes. The first Tornado Watch was not released for the central Florida area prior to the tornadoes.[9]
This is something you almost never see in April! Florida covered in 3" to 5" over 2 weeks during the driest time of the year. It does appear that the atmosphere maybe feeling the changes going on across the equatorial Pacific. Also El-Nino year are notorious for tornado outbreaks across the Gulf coast so that is why people from Houston to FL to Wilmington really need to watch this pattern closely this weekend as severe wx is seeming likely now.

Quoting jeffs713:

Chance for severe weather does not equal chance for tornadoes. See my post above for why.



Actually, if current model trends continue, there will be chance of tornadoes this weekend across Central Florida, wind field forecast and shear does support tornadoes, although this is several days out. I'm not really buying anything though unless the models stay solid about this through Friday, we have been in a bad drought for several months now and if the models back off of the heavy rain/severe storm threat I won't be surprised as this wouldn't be the first time in the last several months that models forecast a system to be strong with heavy rain and a chance of severe only to watch them back off within the last 24 to 72 hours before the event.
Quoting PedleyCA:
So, Hydrus

What was wrong with your computer? Just curious....
As far as what?
Quoting LargoFl:
stormtracker..do you remember this one from 2007?..........The first killer tornado tracked from Sumter Co into northwest Lake Co in the area of The Villages, Lady Lake, Wildwood, and Weirsdale, rated EF-3 (winds estimated up to 155-160 mph), along a 15-mile path up to ¼ mile wide.
It struck Lady Lake at 3:20 AM.
there were 3 tornado's that day..2-ef3's and 1-ef-1


Yeah that storm was an EF-3 and passed 20 miles to my NW. that was a big tornado like the ones you would see in the plains and again it was during El-nino.
Quoting Jedkins01:



Actually, if current model trends continue, there will be chance of tornadoes this weekend, wind field forecast and shear does support tornadoes, although this is several days out. I'm not really buying anything though unless the models stay solid about this trough Friday, we have been in a bad drought for several months now and if the models back off of the heavy rain/severe storm threat I won't be surprised as this wouldn't be the first time in the last several months that models forecast a system to be strong with heavy rain and a chance of severe only to watch them back off within the last 24 to 72 hours before the event.

The tornado forecast really depends on if the system stays as a deep trough, or breaks off into a cut-off low. If it stays intact, yes, there is a decent chance for tornadoes. If it breaks off into a cut-off low, there is less chance of tornadoes, but a greater chance of heavy rains. There are some people on here who want the deep trough and tornadoes, but I think most everyone over there wants the cut-off low with lots of rain.

As for the specific forecast for the storms... I really don't look at wind forecasts more than 2 days out when thinking of tornadoes. Way too much variability between runs and models at that point.
Quoting jeffs713:

The tornado forecast really depends on if the system stays as a deep trough, or breaks off into a cut-off low. If it stays intact, yes, there is a decent chance for tornadoes. If it breaks off into a cut-off low, there is less chance of tornadoes, but a greater chance of heavy rains. There are some people on here who want the deep trough and tornadoes, but I think most everyone over there wants the cut-off low with lots of rain.


I agree I just want a lot of rain as I have only received 3" since last November. This could be great but the models are showing what is looking like a severe wx outbreak across FL on saturday & sunday.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
This is something you almost never see in April! Florida covered in 3" to 5" over 2 weeks during the driest time of the year. It does appear that the atmosphere maybe feeling the changes going on across the equatorial Pacific. Also El-Nino year are notorious for tornado outbreaks across the Gulf coast so that is why people from Houston to FL to Wilmington really need to watch this pattern closely this weekend as severe wx is seeming likely now.




Its way too early for us to be feeling the affects of El Nino already, El Nino would have had to start taking control by January for us to really feel the full effects of it here in Florida and the gulf coast. If we do get in to a wetter pattern here it will just be a weather pattern but you can't assume its linked to El Nino just because models are forecasting an active weather pattern.


Its a reasonable argument that the active weather pattern models are forecasting to impact Florida may be as a result of the decline of La Nina, since La Nina is the reason for the severe drought we have had. Remember that just because its the dry season doesn't mean we don't normally get at least a few intense frontal systems with several inches of rain and severe weather. This upcoming pattern if holds true might just feel like El Nino because relative to the much drier than average pattern from La Nina it would seem so.


Furthermore, don't get your hopes up unless models stay firm on this the next couple days. If computer models still firmly agree on this by Thursday into Friday then you can start getting more excited :)
Quoting hydrus:
As far as what?


Wasn't it giving you trouble a couple days ago? Maybe I got the wrong person. If so, Oops.
Quoting hydrus:
The Tampa tornado was bad, and crossed the state at about its widest as far as the peninsula,s concerned.From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search

The 1966 Tampa tornado family was a deadly tornado family that affected the central Florida corridor from the Tampa Bay area to Brevard County on April 4, 1966. Two tornadoes affected the region, each of which featured a path length in excess of 100 miles (160 km). One of the tornadoes produced estimated F4 damage on the Fujita scale; it remains one of only two F4 tornadoes to strike the U.S. state of Florida, the other of which occurred in 1958.[1] Both F4 tornadoes occurred during El Ni%uFFFDo years.[2] Eleven people were killed across the state, including three in the city of Tampa and seven in Polk County. It remains the fourth deadliest tornado event recorded in Florida; only tornadoes on March 1962, February 2007, and February 1998 caused more deaths in the state.[3] All of the events were induced by non-tropical cyclones.[4] The two tornadoes are officially listed as continuous events, but the tornadoes' damage paths did not cross the entire state, and downbursts may have been responsible for destruction near Lake Juliana and the Kissimmee%u2013Saint Cloud area. However, the combination of tornado and downburst destruction was continuous in central Florida.A squall line affected the central Florida peninsula on April 4, and both tornadoes originated as waterspouts over the Gulf of Mexico.[6] The two tornadoes were spawned from a single thunderstorm that entered the Tampa Bay region, and they are believed to have represented a tornado family.[3] The first tornado touched down around 8:00 a.m. near Largo, Florida in Pinellas County. It damaged 36%u201340 houses in the Saint Petersburg and Clearwater area.[6][7] Later, it continued across the northern side of Tampa, where it demolished 150%u2013158 homes and caused significant damages to 186 residences.[5][6][8] The tornado caused damage to a junior high school,[7] and it ripped roofs from homes and one dormitory on the University of South Florida's campus.[5] Losses in the Tampa Bay area reached $4,000,000 (1966 USD).[5] It moved east-northeast into Polk County and progressed over the northern side of Lakeland and Saint Cloud. Gibsonia and Galloway received the most severe damages in Polk County; more than 100 homes were demolished in the area, and seven deaths occurred. The tornado also destroyed several trailers from the Lake Juliana area near Auburndale to north of Haines City.[7] It eventually moved over the Cocoa area and lifted between Courtenay and Merritt Island. The tornado produced F4 damage in Polk County,[5] and it was significantly more damaging than the second one; total damages reached $5%u201350 million (1966 USD).

The second tornado touched down fifteen minutes later than its predecessor near the Sunshine Skyway Bridge, where it lifted a 23 foot (7 m) trailer and an automobile.[6] It moved inland over central Florida and closely paralleled the path of the more powerful first tornado. It crossed Winter Haven, passed near Rockledge, and lifted near the Merritt Island[5] area in Brevard County. Total damages reached $50%u2013100,000, and no deaths occurred. The funnel remained aloft for most of its life span, and maximum damage was typical of a F3 tornado.[1][5] Fifteen homes were dismantled in Lakeland, while homes and businesses were demolished in northern Winter Haven. Warehouses were leveled south of Haines City, while Citrus trees and trailers were impacted near Auburndale.[5] In the Cocoa Beach area, 150 trailers were destroyed, resulting in more than 100 injuries. 20%u201323 frame structures and a shopping center were also demolished.[5][7] 140 people were injured by the tornado; the majority of the injuries occurred in Brevard County, where 133 people were transported to a hospital in Cocoa Beach.[5] Widespread looting was reported in some localized areas after the passage of the tornadoes in Hillsborough and Polk counties; a total of 200 National Guardsmen were deployed to the two counties, while lesser numbers were ordered to the city of Cocoa.[6] Damage in the Lakeland area was compared to the aftermath of the Normandy invasion during World War II.[6]

Initially, the event was poorly forecasted by the U.S. Weather Bureau, since meteorological analysis did not indicate the presence of an adjacent surface low, which would enhance conditions for tornadoes. The first Tornado Watch was not released for the central Florida area prior to the tornadoes.[9]



Even though advanced warning is much better today, I honestly believe deaths could be worse if a similar strength tornado were today move on a similar path today. Just for the fact that population is so much higher today then it was then. At the very least damages would be extremely high, I only live about a half mile within that path in Pinellas where that tornado tracked. There has also been an F3 within a half mile from me since 1950 as well. My area is a tornado hot spot I guess.
Quoting jeffs713:

I remember the F2 that hit Kelliwood (listed as Tornado #2 on that site). It was a wedge-type tornado, and was likely the closest I've ever been to a tornado (about a mile or so)

Yeah, that tornado lifted just before it got to me, although I didn't know it at the time since I was a full year and a half old. If it crossed 249, it would have come very close to where I lived. Also it is interesting to note that the tornado passed through mostly rural areas at the time, but if it happened today, it would have passed through a much more populated area, including Cinco Ranch. Just the increased damage potential might have ratcheted up the it's final classification a degree to two, not to mention the increased number of people in harms way.

Link
Quoting jeffs713:

The tornado forecast really depends on if the system stays as a deep trough, or breaks off into a cut-off low. If it stays intact, yes, there is a decent chance for tornadoes. If it breaks off into a cut-off low, there is less chance of tornadoes, but a greater chance of heavy rains. There are some people on here who want the deep trough and tornadoes, but I think most everyone over there wants the cut-off low with lots of rain.

As for the specific forecast for the storms... I really don't look at wind forecasts more than 2 days out when thinking of tornadoes. Way too much variability between runs and models at that point.



You are correct, I'm really hoping for the cutoff low solution, it would mean plenty of rain and thunderstorms, some still possibly strong to severe, but less risk tornadoes than with a deep trough.
78. NEFL
Quoting Jedkins01:



If we do get in to a wetter pattern here it will just be a weather pattern but you can't assume its linked to El Nino just because models are forecasting an active weather pattern.


Yeah just get used to StormTracker saying the 'Rainy Season' is coming to FL early every year. The past 2 years he's had different handles, he hypes the rainy season from models 10 days out. It never really pans out and he'll disappear. I agree with you though, just because there is a chance of rain in 6-10 days it doesnt mean that its from a non-existent El Nino. I would say that since the Gulf is warmer than normal that would increase our chances of earlier than normal rain, we've seen it can enhance rain in the midwest and gulf states. Just gotta ignore all the hype from that guy ;)
NHC 91L INVEST 20120417 1200 353N 0554W
Quoting hydrus:
As far as what?


My Bad, it was KoTG. I am old and get confused easily, LMAO.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/vivian-norris-de-mo ntaigu/fukushimas-nuclear-nightm_b_1430816.html

...so glaringly obvious to one former Japanese diplomat, Mitsuhei Marata, who served as Japan's ambassador to Switzerland, that he spoke out at the Public Hearing of Councilors on March 22, 2012. He strongly stated that,

"...if the crippled building of reactor unit 4 -- with 1,535 fuel rods in the spent fuel pool 100 feet (30 meters) above the ground--collapses, not only will it cause a shutdown of all six reactors but will also affect the common spent fuel pool containing 6,375fuel rods located some 50 meters from Reactor 4. In both cases, the radioactive rods are not protected by a containment vessel; dangerously, they are open to the air. This would certainly cause a global catastrophe like we have never before experienced."

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
NHC 91L INVEST 20120417 1200 353N 0554W

Really???
Interesting, that.

In the meantime, the ITCZ looks pretty good for April!
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
NHC 91L INVEST 20120417 1200 353N 0554W


Is this the atcf file to get the latest? I dont see yet 91L updated.

Link
Where are you getting that info from? I don't see 91L at ATCF/tcweb, at NHC, or at NRLMonterey/Navy
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Is this the atcf file to get the latest? I dont see yet 91L updated.

Link


They put it on a different server, don't know why they usually mirror each other Link

SHIPS Text


Also showing up on NRL but no data yet.
Looks like the front that was attached has broken off. So I can see why invest 91L was born.

Good afternoon all. Speaking of tornadoes in Florida, one year NOAA sent some dopplers down here on trucks and determined that the Keys were the Waterspout capital of America. We get a lot of waterspouts offshore. Sometimes they hop on land and do some light damage. But after reading what Hydrus posted about an EF-4 starting as a waterspout, I think I will be a little bit more respectful of them. I have seen many big tornadoes offshore. You could actually see the green ocean water rising in them. Usually though when they touch land they break apart and favor us with a deluge. Pretty scary to think about, that a large waterspout could turn into a large tornadoe. And here I thought I was safe from those monsters that hit the midwest.
Quoting kwgirl:
Good afternoon all. Speaking of tornadoes in Florida, one year NOAA sent some dopplers down here on trucks and determined that the Keys were the Waterspout capital of America. We get a lot of waterspouts offshore. Sometimes they hop on land and do some light damage. But after reading what Hydrus posted about an EF-4 starting as a waterspout, I think I will be a little bit more respectful of them. I have seen many big tornadoes offshore. You could actually see the green ocean water rising in them. Usually though when they touch land they break apart and favor us with a deluge. Pretty scary to think about, that a large waterspout could turn into a large tornadoe. And here I thought I was safe from those monsters that hit the midwest.


Just remember... there is a difference between garden variety waterspouts and tornadic waterspouts. They are caused from completely different conditions and technically a "tornadic waterspout" might be more accurately described as simply a "tornado over water."

Rule of thumb... if you can see on radar that it is caused by a storm with a mesocycle, chance are it's probably more of a tornadic waterspout than the garden variety that come from cumulus cloud updrafts in fairer weather.
Navy has 91L on it's website.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
Quoting StormTracker2K:
This is something you almost never see in April! Florida covered in 3" to 5" over 2 weeks during the driest time of the year. It does appear that the atmosphere maybe feeling the changes going on across the equatorial Pacific. Also El-Nino year are notorious for tornado outbreaks across the Gulf coast so that is why people from Houston to FL to Wilmington really need to watch this pattern closely this weekend as severe wx is seeming likely now.



Hard to relate one event to El Nino, especially when the main Nino region 3.4 is still in the negative category. Would the event forecast this weekend happen with a La Nina? Probably not. I think the atmosphere has just settled into its neutral state. Some La Nina characteristics are still around, as well as some El Nino characteristics.

As far as severe weather, I'm sure there will be some reports of it, but nothing looks "likely" as far as outbreaks go.
We have an invest!!!
(I think so at least)
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


They put it on a different server, don't know why they usually mirror each other Link

SHIPS Text


Also showing up on NRL but no data yet.


Thank you for posting the other file.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Just remember... there is a difference between garden variety waterspouts and tornadic waterspouts. They are caused from completely different conditions and technically a "tornadic waterspout" might be more accurately described as simply a "tornado over water."

Rule of thumb... if you can see on radar that it is caused by a storm with a mesocycle, chance are it's probably more of a tornadic waterspout than the garden variety that come from cumulus cloud updrafts in fairer weather.
Thanks. Didn't realize there was a difference, but now that I think of it, it makes sense. The one tornado that went through Boca Chica and a trailer park back in the 1970's was due to a storm. Whether a front or hurricane, I cannot remember. Usually any bad tornadoes are thrown off by a hurricane. But I have seen some monster waterspouts in the summer when there is no active storms.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Hard to relate one event to El Nino, especially when the main Nino region 3.4 is still in the negative category. Would the event forecast this weekend happen with a La Nina? Probably not. I think the atmosphere has just settled into its neutral state. Some La Nina characteristics are still around, as well as some El Nino characteristics.

As far as severe weather, I'm sure there will be some reports of it, but nothing looks "likely" as far as outbreaks go.


I have to disagree especially with lift indexes like what is forecast by the GFS. Cape is also pretty good over FL and where the squall line is projected to form over the central gulf.


Link



Link
Hurricane Andrew: 20 years later: What have we learned?


Not much.

The building codes in Louisiana saw only minor increases after Andrew, and never improved until at least past 2002.

I haven't been in construction since 2002, but my family was building significantly above post-Andrew code even years before Andrew, and more than likely still above whatever the existing code is today.

I wouldn't own the piece of garbage death-trap most contractors were building and selling to people, even post-Andrew.


Personally, I think walls above 8ft should be banned for residential construction, unless they are made of foam panels or concrete, because 9ft and 10ft walls and above are too flimsy, even with full coverage of plywood and fire-blocks, and post-Andrew many contractors were not even doing full plywood. They only put it on the outside corners.


I also think double-wide windows should be banned on residential construction. When you think about it, every double-wide window is 2 or 3 extra studs you lose, depending on how the wall was laid out, and 2 fire blocks you lost, and 15sq feet of plywood, brick veneer and dry wall you lost, all of which provide additional layers of protection against medium and high velocity projectiles, not to mention the additional vertical and lateral strength from just the extra materials.

I think there should also be a maximum ratio of window width vs total wall width, so people can't "cheat" the above rule by adding extra single-wide windows.

I also think roof pitches above 12/12 should be banned, unless the house will be a 1.5 story, because 1.5 is more efficient and has a lower wind profile than a 2-story house.

But if they are not using the attic space for additional living spaces, there is no good reason to have a high roof pitch, since all it does is increase wind profile, surface area, AND building materials and labor costs...Honestly, below about 35N latitude, most houses have no business being above about an 8/12 roof pitch, as again, it serves no good purpose since you need not be concerned with ice or snow accumulations, etc, and only increases wind profile...
Shear is also pretty good.

Link
Wouldna figured 91L popping up so late in the day. Had already wrote it off until maybe daybreak tomorrow.
33.7n49.4w, 34.8n51.1w, 35.1n52.6w, 35.2n54.1w, 35.3n55.6w, 35.1n57.3w
91L has been heading generally westward.

NYC is NewYorkCity -- MEO is Roanoake,NorthCarolina -- MIA is Miami,Florida -- BDA is Bermuda
Quoting RTSplayer:
Hurricane Andrew: 20 years later: What have we learned?


Not much.

The building codes in Louisiana saw only minor increases after Andrew, and never improved until at least past 2002.

I haven't been in construction since 2002, but my family was building significantly above post-Andrew code even years before Andrew, and more than likely still above whatever the existing code is today.

I wouldn't own the piece of garbage death-trap most contractors were building and selling to people, even post-Andrew.


Personally, I think walls above 8ft should be banned for residential construction, unless they are made of foam panels or concrete, because 9ft and 10ft walls and above are too flimsy, even with full coverage of plywood and fire-blocks, and post-Andrew many contractors were not even doing full plywood. They only put it on the outside corners.


I also think double-wide windows should be banned on residential construction. When you think about it, every double-wide window is 2 or 3 extra studs you lose, depending on how the wall was laid out, and 2 fire blocks you lost, and 15sq feet of plywood, brick veneer and dry wall you lost, all of which provide additional layers of protection against medium and high velocity projectiles, not to mention the additional vertical and lateral strength from just the extra materials.

I think there should also be a maximum ratio of window width vs total wall width, so people can't "cheat" the above rule by adding extra single-wide windows.

I also think roof pitches above 12/12 should be banned, unless the house will be a 1.5 story, because 1.5 is more efficient and has a lower wind profile than a 2-story house.

But if they are not using the attic space for additional living spaces, there is no good reason to have a high roof pitch, since all it does is increase wind profile, surface area, AND building materials and labor costs...Honestly, below about 35N latitude, most houses have no business being above about an 8/12 roof pitch, as again, it serves no good purpose and only increases wind profile...

You're right, but unfortunately, it's all about the money... Much more profitable to build taller, less weather resistant structures.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
\

correction.
It was supposed to be subtropical.

The new GFS runs with the low along the coast dont look good for me.

Looks like 3 days of camping just sitting under tents and waking up in 6 inches of water.
I hope it trends north enough to put N GA in the warm sector.


Wannee perhaps?
Infact the folks in Norman are saying severe wx could start in SE TX with this system on Friday then spread across the Gulf Coast.

Classified extratropical

AL 91 2012041612 BEST 0 337N 494W 45 1002 EX
AL 91 2012041618 BEST 0 348N 511W 45 1002 EX
AL 91 2012041700 BEST 0 351N 526W 40 1003 EX
AL 91 2012041706 BEST 0 352N 541W 40 1004 EX
AL 91 2012041712 BEST 0 353N 556W 40 1004 EX
AL 91 2012041718 BEST 0 351N 573W 40 1004 EX
They start off with a classification of extratropical ? Has anybody seen that done before?
Quoting pottery:

Really???
Interesting, that.

In the meantime, the ITCZ looks pretty good for April!


Hi pottery. Yes about the ITCZ more active now.In fact all the way to inside Africa,there are plenty of clouds.



91L
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi pottery. Yes about the ITCZ more active now.In fact all the way to inside Africa,there are plenty of clouds.


And all the way to offshore Brazil.
A little early in the year for that.
Quoting pottery:

And all the way to offshore Brazil.
A little early in the year for that.


Who's to say what's early. Everything seems to be about 2 months out of sync. Might make for a strange Year.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Here are just the tornadoes listed for my county, Pinellas County, since 1951:

DEC 18, 1951 009 1800 0 0 F1 103
MAY 30, 1952 007 1100 0 0 F2 103
JUN 13, 1952 008 1200 0 0 F1 103
JUN 29, 1952 009 1100 0 0 F1 103
JUN 05, 1953 009 0845 0 0 F0 103
JUN 18, 1953 010 0300 0 0 F1 103
AUG 20, 1954 010 1745 0 0 F1 103
MAY 05, 1961 009 1615 0 0 F2 103
MAY 30, 1963 006 1723 0 0 F1 103
AUG 13, 1963 022 1900 0 0 F2 103
AUG 21, 1963 023 1245 0 0 F2 103
AUG 22, 1963 024 1300 0 0 F1 103
MAR 20, 1964 007 0500 0 1 F1 103
AUG 21, 1964 023 1015 0 2 F1 103
APR 04, 1966 001 0700 0 10 F4 103
APR 04, 1966 002 0715 0 0 F2 103
APR 28, 1966 004 1600 0 0 F1 103
JUN 06, 1966 008 1430 0 1 F1 103
AUG 28, 1966 019 1600 0 0 F1 103
SEP 05, 1966 020 0830 0 0 F0 103
DEC 28, 1967 023 0910 0 0 F2 103
JAN 23, 1968 001 2110 0 0 F1 103
MAY 19, 1968 012 1310 0 0 F1 103
JLY 14, 1968 026 1410 0 0 F1 103
JLY 14, 1968 027 2330 0 0 F1 103
NOV 09, 1968 047 1250 0 0 F1 103
NOV 11, 1968 052 1015 0 0 F1 103
DEC 10, 1969 045 0540 0 1 F2 103
JAN 02, 1972 001 1300 0 0 F0 103
MAR 17, 1973 012 0200 0 0 F1 103
JUN 02, 1973 035 1800 0 0 F0 103
OCT 31, 1973 042 2130 0 9 F2 103
FEB 19, 1974 005 1530 0 2 F1 103
JLY 25, 1974 041 1115 0 0 F0 103
MAY 26, 1975 046 2000 0 0 F1 103
AUG 17, 1975 074 1120 0 0 F0 103
SEP 11, 1975 081 1800 0 0 F0 103
JAN 08, 1976 002 1000 0 0 F0 103
APR 08, 1976 017 1215 0 2 F0 103
JLY 07, 1976 050 1735 0 0 F0 103
AUG 12, 1976 059 1650 1 21 F1 103
MAY 04, 1978 036 0947 3 94 F3 103
JUN 08, 1978 049 0700 0 0 F0 103
JUN 29, 1978 059 1043 0 2 F0 103
MAY 08, 1979 022 0600 0 0 F0 103
MAY 08, 1979 027 0945 0 0 F0 103
MAY 24, 1979 041 1200 0 0 F1 103
SEP 01, 1979 063 1500 0 0 F1 103
SEP 25, 1979 081 1540 0 0 F1 103
OCT 05, 1979 087 0620 0 0 F0 103
JUN 19, 1981 029 1830 0 1 F0 103
JLY 15, 1981 045 0315 0 0 F0 103
DEC 15, 1981 061 0825 0 5 F2 103
MAR 06, 1982 004 0000 0 0 F0 103
SEP 21, 1982 061 0905 0 0 F1 103
FEB 02, 1983 009 0500 0 1 F1 103
DEC 11, 1983 078 2200 0 0 F2 103
MAR 15, 1985 003 1008 0 2 F1 103
MAY 20, 1986 022 0120 0 0 F0 103
JUN 03, 1986 026 1515 0 0 F0 103
JUN 12, 1986 029 0720 0 0 F0 103
JUN 18, 1987 018 2000 0 0 F0 103
JLY 06, 1987 027 1526 0 0 F0 103
JLY 15, 1988 022 1030 0 0 F0 103
JLY 25, 1988 023 1100 0 0 F0 103
AUG 14, 1988 027 1450 0 0 F0 103
SEP 08, 1988 030 1950 0 0 F0 103
NOV 22, 1988 043 2332 0 0 F0 103
NOV 22, 1988 044 2350 0 0 F0 103
DEC 11, 1988 045 1459 0 0 F0 103
AUG 10, 1989 056 1335 0 0 F0 103
JUN 07, 1990 015 1555 0 0 F0 103
AUG 19, 1990 044 1310 0 0 F0 103
JAN 19, 1991 005 2208 0 0 F0 103
APR 25, 1991 021 1317 0 0 F0 103
APR 25, 1991 022 1335 0 0 F1 103
MAY 16, 1991 031 1240 0 0 F0 103
MAY 16, 1991 032 1555 0 0 F0 103
MAY 17, 1991 033 1540 0 0 F0 103
JLY 20, 1991 047 1345 0 0 F0 103
FEB 05, 1992 003 0310 0 0 F0 103
FEB 05, 1992 005 1540 0 0 F0 103
FEB 05, 1992 006 1548 0 0 F0 103
JUN 17, 1992 021 1637 0 0 F1 103
JLY 12, 1992 029 1015 0 6 F2 103
JLY 19, 1992 032 1042 0 0 F1 103
JLY 20, 1992 034 1605 0 0 F0 103
JLY 20, 1992 035 1655 0 0 F0 103
JLY 22, 1992 036 1630 0 0 F0 103
SEP 01, 1992 041 1752 0 0 F0 103
OCT 03, 1992 045 0840 1 0 F2 103
OCT 03, 1992 046 0928 0 0 F1 103
OCT 03, 1992 047 0930 3 75 F3 103
JAN 16, 1993 004 0420 0 0 F0 103
MAR 12, 1993 012 2300 0 0 F0 103
JUN 14, 1993 037 1745 0 0 F1 103
JUN 15, 1993 038 1715 0 0 F0 103
JLY 14, 1993 047 1520 0 0 F1 103
AUG 09, 1993 053 1708 0 0 F0 103
AUG 09, 1993 054 1735 0 0 F1 103
JLY 11, 1994 043 1830 0 0 F0 103
JLY 12, 1995 036 1215 0 1 F1 103



Here is the link to the source:Link




And that only goes to 1995... We got a lot of tornadoes here although as you can see high end tornadoes are pretty rare, only 3 between 1951 and 1995, but still, just in our county there have been 3, including an F4.
gee thats cary, more so when they know how crowded and highly developed Pinellas county is..dont ever want to see an ef 4 here ..gee
The next stage of alert on that mexican volcano is a RED ALERT.in which case evacuations would begon, thats according to fox news an hour ago....folks..thats 19 million people in mexico city alone.......can you imagine if that thing does erupt?...
Is 91L still attached to the fronts? I'm not experienced enough to really tell for sure, but doesn't look like it anymore.

If anything it looks really good, didn't expect it to get this far in the development stages.
I take one little nap and see what happens. Justo curious, who was the first on here to post 91L?

Quoting LargoFl:
The next stage of alert on that mexican volcano is a RED ALERT.in which case evacuations would begon, thats according to fox news an hour ago....folks..thats 19 million people in mexico city alone.......can you imagine if that thing does erupt?...
Popo has erupted before, in modern times, too. They didn't evacuate Mexico city itself.
Quoting yqt1001:
Is 91L still attached to the fronts? I'm not experienced enough to really tell for sure, but doesn't look like it anymore.

If anything it looks really good, didn't expect it to get this far in the development stages.

It's working on separating itself, but I don't believe it is completely separated.
Quoting Grothar:
I take one little nap and see what happens. Justo curious, who was the first on here to post 91L?

nrtiwlnvragn got the first post.
Quoting LargoFl:
The next stage of alert on that mexican volcano is a RED ALERT.in which case evacuations would begon, thats according to fox news an hour ago....folks..thats 19 million people in mexico city alone.......can you imagine if that thing does erupt?...


I'm pretty sure it would take at least a VEI 5 eruption, if not a VEI 6 to be a serious threat at 50 miles distance.

Even if it was a 5, there "should" be more than enough time to evacuate from any lava flow, lahar, or even a pyroclastic flow, particularly if they evacuate a 20 mile radius ahead of time.

Mt. St. Helens was 5 with a lateral blast and a complete collapse of a flank, and even it didn't have catastrophic pyroclastic flow beyond about 15 to 20 miles linearly. Now the lahars were another matter, b ut again, you can plan for that. For starters don't be in a river valley.

Significant ejecta above dust size is extremely unlikely to fly 50 miles unless it really was a 6 or more.


Then again, I seem to recall much of Mexico City lies in a dry lake bed, which is ultimately about the worst spot to be if a 5 or 6 really did happen, but like I said, at least they got the 50 miles range going in their favor...
Quoting yqt1001:
Is 91L still attached to the fronts? I'm not experienced enough to really tell for sure, but doesn't look like it anymore.

If anything it looks really good, didn't expect it to get this far in the development stages.

The front just broke off. Compare the center of the banding from the front, compared with the center of the banding around the center itself. The front is shifted slightly off. Also, look at the cloud pattern with the front in relation to the center.
They said it wouldn't get classified if it was attached to a front. Someone said it had lost the front on the last page (#86) and it is an Invest now.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
NHC 91L INVEST 20120417 1200 353N 0554W


Quoting RTSplayer:


I'm pretty sure it would take at least a VEI 5 eruption, if not a VEI 6 to be a serious threat at 50 miles distance.

Even if it was a 5, there "should" be more than enough time to evacuate from any lava flow, lahar, or even a pyroclastic flow, particularly if they evacuate a 20 mile radius ahead of time.

Mt. St. Helens was 5 with a lateral blast and a complete collapse of a flank, and even it didn't have catastrophic pyroclastic flow beyond about 15 to 20 miles linearly. Now the lahars were another matter, b ut again, you can plan for that. For starters don't be in a river valley.

Significant ejecta above dust size is extremely unlikely to fly 50 miles unless it really was a 6 or more.


Then again, I seem to recall much of Mexico City lies in a dry lake bed, which is ultimately about the worst spot to be if a 5 or 6 really did happen, but like I said, at least they got the 50 miles range going in their favor...

Correct on all points. The biggest threat is lahars (mudflows caused by volcanic eruptions), which you can't predict. Popo does have pretty much year-round glaciers, too. Pyroclastic flows are possible, but they've got a LONG way to go down the mountainside before having a real impact. Ashfall is an issue, but more of a nuisance than a danger to the city (depends on winds, too).

But if Popo erupts, and gets some lahars going... Mexico City is in the worst possible spot.

Very good post, RTS. (and yes, I blatantly rephrased most of what you said, just without technical terms)
Quoting jeffs713:

The front just broke off. Compare the center of the banding from the front, compared with the center of the banding around the center itself. The front is shifted slightly off. Also, look at the cloud pattern with the front in relation to the center.



Well, it's still almost perfectly stacked with an ULL, which is about the worst place to be for true Tropical development to happen.
Quoting RTSplayer:



Well, it's still almost perfectly stacked with an ULL, which is about the worst place to be for true Tropical development to happen.

Yep. Which is why the NHC started off the classification as extratopical. If this thing had 4-5 days to spin, and was 300-400 miles south, it would have a good shot. As it stands... its not looking that favorable.
Quoting PedleyCA:


My Bad, it was KoTG. I am old and get confused easily, LMAO.
That alright. We have our share of ancients on the blog..Actually, in a few more years, they will be quite numerous I suspect..:)
Testing to see if Raleigh Weather still blocks hotlinks let me know.

Latest High Seas Forecast (1623Z) indicates still a front involved.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC N OF 25N BETWEEN 49W AND 61W S TO SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS
TO 9 FT. S OF 22N BETWEEN 66W AND 75W NE TO E WINDS 20 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES JUST N OF AREA NEAR 32N59W 1005 MB
WITH COLD FRONT TO 31N57W TO 24N61W. WITHIN 420 NM E OF FRONT S
TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. N OF 27N WITHIN 300 NM
W OF FRONT W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT EXCEPT 8 TO 12
FT IN N SWELL N OF 29N.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW NEAR 31N56W 1006 MB WITH WEAKENING COLD
FRONT TO 25N57W TO 19N60W. N OF 25N E OF FRONT TO 44W S TO SW
WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. N OF 25N WITHIN 240 NM W OF FRONT W TO
NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
Miami NWS Discussion - 3:00 p.m.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHARP TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTRY BY FRIDAY AND DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY/NRN GULF BY SATURDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
EASTWARD, UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
PENINSULA. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE, GOOD OMEGA VALUES...STRONG LOW LVEL JET (30-40 KTS AT
850 MB) AND GOOD LI VALUES AS A SQUALL LINE FEATURE AHEAD OF THE
LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SOMETIME SUNDAY DURING THE DAY.
THIS COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...IS TOO EARLY AND THERE IS
TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME TO PINPOINT NEITHER TIMING NOR
LOCATION OF ANY POSSIBLE SEVERE WX AT THIS TIME. THIS WEATHER
SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITOR AND ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST WILL BE MADE AS NECESSARY. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA WE SHOULD RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS BY THE EARLY
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
Quoting RTSplayer:



Well, it's still almost perfectly stacked with an ULL, which is about the worst place to be for true Tropical development to happen.


Actually that's where it needs to be, where the cold air is directly above the center aiding convection and the wind shear is lowest. Most subtropical storms develop from vertically-stacked depressions. That said, nothing is coming out of this system.
Wow; been busy for the last several hours at work, look up, and here we are; the first real Atlantic "swirl" of the year....
Quoting kwgirl:
Good afternoon all. Speaking of tornadoes in Florida, one year NOAA sent some dopplers down here on trucks and determined that the Keys were the Waterspout capital of America. We get a lot of waterspouts offshore. Sometimes they hop on land and do some light damage. But after reading what Hydrus posted about an EF-4 starting as a waterspout, I think I will be a little bit more respectful of them. I have seen many big tornadoes offshore. You could actually see the green ocean water rising in them. Usually though when they touch land they break apart and favor us with a deluge. Pretty scary to think about, that a large waterspout could turn into a large tornadoe. And here I thought I was safe from those monsters that hit the midwest.
Waterspouts can be as strong as the average tornado if the conditions are right. There have been two that I know of where the winds inside the waterspout were measured at 160 mph. One very strong waterspout hit right here on Boca Grande in 1969, lifting very heavy objects and carried them a considerable distance..Including humans..I have many good memories here.
Interesting talk going on here about 'strong' tornadoes in Florida. Also, I see we have 91L.
I don't see why the National Hurricane Center would tag it as an invest if it's not going to do anything. It's already on a weakening trend.
TWC has FL to the Carolina's higlighted for severe wx Sunday. It's now showing up on my online TWC forecast for Sunday. People really need to take heed of this developing wx situation over the coming days. Especially as the GFS is showing low to mid 70 dewpoints surging north across FL on Saturday and then up the SE Coast.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I don't see why the National Hurricane Center would tag it as an invest if it's not going to do anything. It's already on a weakening trend.


I think they just wanted to give the models a spin. The NHC always seems to have a few "huh?" invests each year, usually in April or May.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I don't see why the National Hurricane Center would tag it as an invest if it's not going to do anything. It's already on a weakening trend.


The operational agencies select systems to be invests for various reasons:

- has potential for genesis,

- want to view system with a full suite of remote sensing products.

- they start a system by running model guidance at the same time to get a feel for what the forecasts are early on and thus better understand the trend on model fields.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
TWC has FL to the Carolina's higlighted for severe wx Sunday. It's now showing up on my online TWC forecast for Sunday. People really need to take head of this developing wx situation over the coming days.

Dude... 5 days out. Lots can (and will) change. Also, if TWC could get away with it, they would declare everything east of the Rockies as a "severe weather risk" for the entire month of April.
Quoting jeffs713:

Dude... 5 days out. Lots can (and will) change. Also, if TWC could get away with it, they would declare everything east of the Rockies as a "severe weather risk" for the entire month of April.


"Dude" as you say the SPC highlighted areas of the Midwest 8 days out last week. 5 days isnt much especially when all the models agree. Especially when the threat for severe wx moves in Saturday and last thru Sunday so technically it's 4 to 5 days out.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
TWC has FL to the Carolina's higlighted for severe wx Sunday. It's now showing up on my online TWC forecast for Sunday. People really need to take heed of this developing wx situation over the coming days. Especially as the GFS is showing low to mid 70 dewpoints surging north across FL on Saturday and then up the SE Coast.
best news about this, we sure are supposed to get some much needed rain, only hope it dont gully wash for a half hour or so then gone...we need a real long soaking in rain..for one thing to put out the fires in the state
Quoting StormTracker2K:


"Dude" as you say the SPC highlighted areas of the Midwest 8 days out last week. 5 days isnt much especially when all the models agree.

I fully realize that. I'm also pointing out that saying certain areas should "take heed of this developing wx" when its 5 days out is a bit alarmist. People shouldn't wait for something to be declared a potential threat 5 days out to start preparations. My intent was to point out that 5-day threats do not always pan out. Any preparations that should be done 5 days out should already be done at the start of the severe wx/hurricane season. Also... if everyone prepared for weather based on 5-day forecasts, there would be a HUGE issue of complacency on shorter-term warnings.

The best analogy I can think of is getting ready for the weekend on Monday. (yes, it is quite fun to think about, but pretty useless in practice - lots can change)

That said... I know I'm feeding the trolls, but your constant alarmist posts are getting rather irritating, especially considering how much misinformation there has been in them. (I won't even start on the "rainy season" posts you seem to do every few hours) Take a chill pill. Relax. Understand that the first person to make a proclamation tends to be the first person proven wrong, and trying to show everyone else up isn't going to do anything but lose respect from those whom you should be learning from. This blog isn't a popularity contest, or "who called it first". Its about teaching each other weather forecasting, and discussing tropical/severe weather systems.
Quoting hydrus:
Waterspouts can be as strong as the average tornado if the conditions are right. There have been two that I know of where the winds inside the waterspout were measured at 160 mph. One very strong waterspout hit right here on Boca Grande in 1969, lifting very heavy objects and carried them a considerable distance..Including humans..I have many good memories here.
some years ago, right by Clearwater Beach, sat two side by side waterspouts..amazing sight it was..never came on land
Quoting LargoFl:
best news about this, we sure are supposed to get some much needed rain, only hope it dont gully wash for a half hour or so then gone...we need a real long soaking in rain..for one thing to put out the fires in the state


Could have several rounds of strong storms with very heavy rains rolling thru Saturday & Sunday. This won't be a one round then done for 2 weeks as has been the case lately. This is our first best chance of heavy widespread rains we've seen in the forecast for 6 months now.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Testing to see if Raleigh Weather still blocks hotlinks let me know.

gee looking at that low in the gulf..if this was August..gee
Quoting jeffs713:

I fully realize that. I'm also pointing out that saying certain areas should "take heed of this developing wx" when its 5 days out is a bit alarmist. People shouldn't wait for something to be declared a potential threat 5 days out to start preparations. My intent was to point out that 5-day threats do not always pan out. Any preparations that should be done 5 days out should already be done at the start of the severe wx/hurricane season. Also... if everyone prepared for weather based on 5-day forecasts, there would be a HUGE issue of complacency on shorter-term warnings.

The best analogy I can think of is getting ready for the weekend on Monday. (yes, it is quite fun to think about, but pretty useless in practice - lots can change)


jeffs713;) Man you must be having a bad day! Sorry you feel that way but nothing I post is out of line same as others post on here.
The models are still not sure of what will happen with the low and every local NWS office has it's own unique take on the forecast depending on the particular desk person and how they interpret the current data. With that being said, here is the Tallahassee NWS take:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
324 PM EDT Tue Apr 17 2012

.LONG TERM (Friday through next Tuesday)...Both the 00Z GFS and ECMWF have flip flopped from previous runs and have come into good agreement for the extended period. This new solution has slowed down the progression of upper/lower features about 12hrs. Still with shifts in model runs overall confidence in timing and intensity of weekend weather event not high. Period commences with shift from quasi-zonal longwave pattern to an increasingly amplified one. The includes ridging over wrn states, amplified positively tilted trough from Nrn Plains SW to 4 Corners, and ridging over Ern states. At surface low over Srn Great Lakes with cold front SWWD thru Wrn most TN Valley and into TX.

Ahead of these systems, upper trough shifts Ewd with axis from Great Lakes swwd to developing cut off low over NE TX Fri night. GFS remains a tad stronger and slower with low while EURO shows more of open wave before transitioning into cutoff low on Sat. Cut off low moves slowly ewd and deepens along Gulf Coast not reaching local region until Sun aftn with GFS cutoff slightly deeper. Low then opens up and lifts newd along Ern seaboard. At surface, reflection
of mid/upper low develops over Wrn Gulf on Sat with GFS again deeper 996mb vs 1002 mb. It looks like a squall line will develop ahead of the front by Sat night. Low then shifts ewd dragging cold front ewd
exiting local area Sun aftn/eve and into Wrn Atlc on Mon with EURO about 6hrs faster. With either solution, if all falls into place, local area will be placed in warm sector during part of weekend then
ingredients in place for severe storms. wrap around moisture will linger into overnight hours, especially with GFS and across ern counties.


Just gonna keep an eye on the SPC discussion as we near the weekend to see where the they see any moderate or higher risks as the models come into more agreement by Thursday.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
326 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2012

GAZ020-030-031-172000-
326 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN POLK...PAULDING AND BARTOW COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 325 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER BRASWELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
POLK...PAULDING AND BARTOW COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BRASWELL...VAN WERT...
ROCKMART...ARAGON...BURNT HICKORY RIDGE...TAYLORSVILLE...
STILESBORO...EUHARLEE...EMERSON...RED TOP MOUNTAIN STATE PARK...
CARTERSVILLE AND CASSVILLE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3429 8490 3417 8467 3389 8491 3399 8509
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 212DEG 17KT 3403 8494

$$
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
The models are still not sure of what will happen with the low and every local NWS office has it's own unique take on the forecast depending on the particular desk person and how they interpret the current data. With that being said, here is the Tallahassee NWS take:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
324 PM EDT Tue Apr 17 2012

.LONG TERM (Friday through next Tuesday)...Both the 00Z GFS and ECMWF have flip flopped from previous runs and have come into good agreement for the extended period. This new solution has slowed down the progression of upper/lower features about 12hrs. Still with shifts in model runs overall confidence in timing and intensity of weekend weather event not high. Period commences with shift from quasi-zonal longwave pattern to an increasingly amplified one. The includes ridging over wrn states, amplified positively tilted trough from Nrn Plains SW to 4 Corners, and ridging over Ern states. At surface low over Srn Great Lakes with cold front SWWD thru Wrn most TN Valley and into TX.

Ahead of these systems, upper trough shifts Ewd with axis from Great Lakes swwd to developing cut off low over NE TX Fri night. GFS remains a tad stronger and slower with low while EURO shows more of open wave before transitioning into cutoff low on Sat. Cut off low moves slowly ewd and deepens along Gulf Coast not reaching local region until Sun aftn with GFS cutoff slightly deeper. Low then opens up and lifts newd along Ern seaboard. At surface, reflection
of mid/upper low develops over Wrn Gulf on Sat with GFS again deeper 996mb vs 1002 mb. It looks like a squall line will develop ahead of the front by Sat night. Low then shifts ewd dragging cold front ewd
exiting local area Sun aftn/eve and into Wrn Atlc on Mon with EURO about 6hrs faster. With either solution, if all falls into place, local area will be placed in warm sector during part of weekend then
ingredients in place for severe storms. wrap around moisture will linger into overnight hours, especially with GFS and across ern counties.


Just gonna keep an eye on the SPC discussion as we near the weekend to see where the they see any moderate or higher risks as the models come into more agreement by Thursday.
thanks for the update..still a few days away, but its great to at last, seeing some rain somewhere in the forecast huh
YES! The alarmist is alarming some rain for FL is that so bad.

Quoting StormTracker2K:


Could have several rounds of strong storms with very heavy rains rolling thru Saturday & Sunday. This won't be a one round then done for 2 weeks as has been the case lately. This is our first best chance of heavy widespread rains we've seen in the forecast for 6 months now.
I will bet the folks in Jacksonville and north florida love this forecast for maybe some heavy rains coming huh..but I also remember when these thunderstorms roll in, they bring along alot of lightning...lightning starts most of these fires all over again..we'll see what happens
Quoting StormTracker2K:
YES! The alarmist is alarming some rain for FL is that so bad.

boy i havent seen a 70% chance of rain in such a long time..looks good lol
113 LargoFl: The next stage of alert on that mexican volcano is a RED ALERT. In which case, evacuations would begin[...]that's 19 million people in Mexico City alone...
119 RTSplayer: I'm pretty sure it would take at least a VEI 5 eruption, if not a VEI 6 to be a serious threat at 50 miles distance. Even if it was a 5, there "should" be more than enough time to evacuate from any lava flow, lahar, or even a pyroclastic flow, particularly if they evacuate a 20 mile radius ahead of time.
Mt. St. Helens was 5 with a lateral blast and a complete collapse of a flank, and even it didn't have catastrophic pyroclastic flow beyond about 15 to 20 miles linearly. Now the lahars were another matter, but again, you can plan for that. For starters don't be in a river valley.
Significant ejecta above dust size is extremely unlikely to fly 50 miles unless it really was a 6 or more.
Then again, I seem to recall much of Mexico City lies in a dry lake bed, which is ultimately about the worst spot to be if a 5 or 6 really did happen, but like I said, at least they got the 50 miles range going in their favor...


The closest urbanized outskirt of the MexicoCity metroplex is ~31miles(50kilometres) from Popocatepetl. There are much smaller cities&towns ~25miles(40kilometres) away -- such as Puebla* to the east -- but most of the area is rural.

MexicoCity is essentially built on the bed of a continuously artificially-drained lake/swamp. In the event of an earthquake, the ground quivers almost like a bowl of Jello due to soil liquefaction.
The MountSaintHelens eruption had a magnitude5.1quake associated with it.
Considering that a magnitude6.5quake ~39miles(63kilometres)NW of LazaroCardenas triggered reports of swaying buildings "due to an earthquake in MexicoCity" ~245miles(395kilometres) to the ENE of the epicenter, it'd only take ~magnitude5.2quake co-located with a Popocatepetl eruption to produce similar buiding sways.

* Which has black lava rock from Popocatepetl just outside of the city, though believed to be from the volcano formation process, and not from subsequent eruptions of the mature volcano.
Quoting LargoFl:
I will bet the folks in Jacksonville and north florida love this forecast for maybe some heavy rains coming huh..but I also remember when these thunderstorms roll in, they bring along alot of lightning...lightning starts most of these fires all over again..we'll see what happens


That's true that's why brushfire season is worse in May because that's when we start seeing our summer storms return normally with lots of lightning and little rain. So hopefully this forecast pans out. Look at the Euro.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
YES! The alarmist is alarming some rain for FL is that so bad.



Just as I thought too.. temperatures no longer predicted to get below 80.

Even in strong El Nino years, that simply is very rare to happen in the 3rd week of April.
How common is this "gigantic, non-tropical, retrograde Atlantic low" scenario we're watching?

Gotta say, I can't actually remember much of anything like it, least of all in April or May anyway...

Basicly, it's an un-classified, synoptic scale low that's taking up half the Atlantic, and moving generally the wrong direction for most stuff at it's latitude.

Edit:

Seems to have started turning SW to maybe SSW, just as most of the models anticipated.
Quoting LargoFl:
some years ago, right by Clearwater Beach, sat two side by side waterspouts..amazing sight it was..never came on land
That was a huge party spot for us. Went through a few storms there..No spouts.:)
No ATCF file on 91L?

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
No ATCF file on 91L?



Here is a new file.

Link

Link
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Here is a new file.

Link


Did they move the sites?

I can't find anything new on my old ATCF,TCAID, and SHIPS text sites.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Did they move the sites?

I can't find anything new on my old ATCF,TCAID, and SHIPS text sites.

Yeah, I think nrtiwlnvragn mentioned something about it being moved below.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Did they move the sites?

I can't find anything new on my old ATCF,TCAID, and SHIPS text sites.


On that,I think our friend nrtiwlnvragn knows about that.Let's see if he comes and helps on this.
First Solar to cut 2,000 jobs

Europe will bear the brunt of the cuts
Kansas officials call storm chasers "outrageously stupid"


Excerpt:

So many people were chasing severe weather in parts of central Kansas during the weekend that roads were jammed and emergency responders were hindered from doing their work, some central Kansas safety officials said.
Quoting hydrus:
That was a huge party spot for us. Went through a few storms there..No spouts.:)
beautiful beach and party spot it is, had many a fun time there
Quoting StormTracker2K:


looking at this model, if the darker blue is the worst..it just about misses central florida
From Crownweather

Severe Weather Is Very Possible This Weekend From North Carolina To Florida:

I am becoming increasingly concerned about the chances for severe thunderstorms this weekend across the southeastern United States from North Carolina to Florida. A very strong storm system is forecast to develop along the northwestern Gulf coast during Saturday and Saturday night and track across the Florida panhandle on Sunday and Sunday night before moving east of Florida on Monday.

Right now, it appears that the greatest threat for severe weather on Saturday afternoon into Saturday night will be from Raleigh and Charlotte, North Carolina southward to Jacksonville, Tallahassee and Tampa, Florida. Main threat appears to be damaging winds, but the tornado threat is something that will need to be watched closely considering the strength of this storm system and the amount of shear it may be able to tap.

On Sunday, I think the severe weather threat be found across southern Georgia and across much of the Florida peninsula, especially across the central part of the state, including the Orlando metro area. It appears that the greatest risk times on Sunday will be from mid to late morning through the afternoon hours. Damaging winds appears to be the main threat, but the tornado risk is something that will need to be monitored.


I will be monitoring this severe weather risk closely and keep you all updated.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


On that,I think our friend nrtiwlnvragn knows about that.Let's see if he comes and helps on this.


There has always been multiple sites that contained ATCF data, and they normally mirror each other. Just recently the mirror was "broken" with the ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/ site that has ncep in the address not updating. No idea why.
Quoting LargoFl:
looking at this model, if the darker blue is the worst..it just about misses central florida


What that shows is a strong surface low deepening rapidly near New orleans then sliding ENE up the Carolina coast. Also this strong of a low will likely cause a severe wx outbreak especially a low this far south in late April (that's this strong) when conditions are getting very moist now and then you throw in the heat factor as well as shearing winds from the surface to about 10,000 to 20,000 up in the atmosphere.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
513 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2012

NCC027-172145-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-120417T2145Z/
CALDWELL NC-
513 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
CALDWELL COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 509 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COLLETTSVILLE...OR 5 MILES WEST
OF LENOIR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
PATTERSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED
REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3609 8162 3607 8143 3590 8162 3589 8163
3586 8166 3587 8170 3590 8174 3597 8173
3610 8166
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 225DEG 25KT 3593 8160

$$

NED
FLZ033-038-180930-
ST JOHNS-FLAGLER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST AUGUSTINE...PALM COAST
249 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2012

.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
.SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS
IN THE MID 60S.
.SUNDAY...BREEZY. PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

Weird looking invest...

HPC has strongest convection saturday evening.


Quoting RitaEvac:
First Solar to cut 2,000 jobs

Europe will bear the brunt of the cuts


People are stupid.

It's actually a better investment to buy the solar panels for yourself and sell the power to the grid, than to own stock in the company.

At the new going rates, the panels will pay for themselves as much as 10 to 15 times in a 30 year period.

You can't get that sort of return from medium yield stocks, bonds, mutual funds, or CDs.

It takes about an 8% re-invested annual return before an investment beats the same value of solar panels in net gains in a 30 year period.

And that's assuming the person buying solar panels does not "re-invest" his savings or income from the solar panels in additional solar panels...

If you re-invest the savings, then the panels can pay for themselves and then another set 3very 3 years or so, and then that set can pay for itself in 3 years, etc. So that after 30 years, you can have 55 or more times as many panels as the first year's investment, assuming you only reinvest every 3 full years...

Edit:

Actually, it grows exponentially, not cumulatively, so that after 30 years you could theoretically have around 1000 times as much as you started with.

End Edit:

What's more...if you wanted to invest in stocks and such, buying the solar panels and then investing the savings or income from them would still be the better way to go, since the panels will pay for themselves over and over anyway, and just re-invest all of the income or savings from the panels...


I wish I had the start-up money to make some sort of solar or wind energy farm. I'd be more than happy to do so.

The potential long-term savings and income are higher than anything I know of that is both legal and not involving a high amount of luck.
Right where the big Hurricanes seem to go in..LOOK what they are going to build there..................The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission voted in favor of Texas-based Cheniere Energy's plan to build a giant natural gas liquefaction and export terminal at Sabine Pass, which straddles the Texas-Louisiana boarder just north of the Gulf of Mexico.
Admin has gotta separate the Plus and Minus buttons farther apart.
Nailed a Minus onto some good info while mousing over to Plus it... again. Something flaky about my mouse will occasionally trigger a link without a left-click.

So PLEASE Plus comment168 nrtiwlnvragn for me to cancel out my error... several times to completely overwrite my stupidity.
174. RTSplayer

Guess it depends on where you live. In Florida you only get a credit on your bill for any electricity you supply to the grid and can only bank for a year. They most you can make is what you use.
solar swirls
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
174. RTSplayer

Guess it depends on where you live. In Florida you only get a credit on your bill for any electricity you supply to the grid and can only bank for a year. They most you can make is what you use.
most people use the solar panels nearby me, is to heat hot water etc, i dont know if the costs involved are worth it, and in a big storm with high winds..poof go those expensive panels i bet
Quoting LargoFl:
most people use the solar panels nearby me, is to heat hot water etc, i dont know if the costs involved are worth it, and in a big storm with high winds..poof go those expensive panels i bet


Question I've always had is would they be covered under a standard homeowners policy, or require a separate ryder for coverage? I'm thinking separate ryder, and how much would that cost?
Quoting LargoFl:
most people use the solar panels nearby me, is to heat hot water etc, i dont know if the costs involved are worth it, and in a big storm with high winds..poof go those expensive panels i bet


If you just want to heat water, PV really isn't the way to go.

You should use a direct solar thermal heater, like vacuum boilers or a home made box.

I've seen people on youtube claim this works so well in summer, even in Florida, that they are able to turn off their electric water heater during summer, and save as much as 1/3rd on their electric bill.

It costs a few hundred dollars to make one of these and install it yourself (unless there's a code requiring you to have a licensed plumber assist you, and even then you should be able to do most of the work yourself).
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Question I've always had is would they be covered under a standard homeowners policy, or require a separate ryder for coverage? I'm thinking separate ryder, and how much would that cost?
I dont know the answer to that but my gut says no they dont cover it because its outside on the roof,exposed to the weather..but I guess if you pay enough more for added coverage,maybe...
Quoting LargoFl:
most people use the solar panels nearby me, is to heat hot water etc, i dont know if the costs involved are worth it, and in a big storm with high winds..poof go those expensive panels i bet


Big storm with big hail or winds, it could be poof goes your car or poof goes your roof. As with most sensitive investments, insurance is in order.
Quoting LargoFl:
most people use the solar panels nearby me, is to heat hot water etc, i dont know if the costs involved are worth it, and in a big storm with high winds..poof go those expensive panels i bet


I never understood why anyone would want to heat hot water. ;-) ... Steam baths?
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Big storm with big hail or winds, it could be poof goes your car or poof goes your roof. As with most sensitive investments, insurance is in order.


Yep and insurance is already too high, and will be more for solar panels, so poof goes the industry
The 18z Surface Analysis chart shows 91L moving South. I think is doing a loop to then go NE as the front west of it kicks it that way.

Quoting RitaEvac:


Yep and insurance is already too high, and will be more for solar panels, so poof goes the industry


Your not the best economist that's fer sho..
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
174. RTSplayer

Guess it depends on where you live. In Florida you only get a credit on your bill for any electricity you supply to the grid and can only bank for a year. They most you can make is what you use.


Lease space on other people's roofs to put your extra panels, with a contract deal so they get 50% of the savings. They'd actually have to pay you 50% of the savings, but you'd both benefit. It might even be an easy sell, since you'd be fronting the costs. The panels would take twice as long to pay for themselves this way, but it's pure income with no labor required.

If you did this in your entire neighborhood, you could be making 30 to 40 grand per year easily, while pretty much doing nothing...
91L kind of looks like Andrea in 2007.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I never understood why anyone would want to heat hot water. ;-) ... Steam baths?
ROFLMAO
Quoting RTSplayer:


People are stupid.

It's actually a better investment to buy the solar panels for yourself and sell the power to the grid, than to own stock in the company.

At the new going rates, the panels will pay for themselves as much as 10 to 15 times in a 30 year period.

You can't get that sort of return from medium yield stocks, bonds, mutual funds, or CDs.

It takes about an 8% re-invested annual return before an investment beats the same value of solar panels in net gains in a 30 year period.

And that's assuming the person buying solar panels does not "re-invest" his savings or income from the solar panels in additional solar panels...

If you re-invest the savings, then the panels can pay for themselves and then another set 3very 3 years or so, and then that set can pay for itself in 3 years, etc. So that after 30 years, you can have 55 or more times as many panels as the first year's investment, assuming you only reinvest every 3 full years...

Edit:

Actually, it grows exponentially, not cumulatively, so that after 30 years you could theoretically have around 1000 times as much as you started with.

End Edit:

What's more...if you wanted to invest in stocks and such, buying the solar panels and then investing the savings or income from them would still be the better way to go, since the panels will pay for themselves over and over anyway, and just re-invest all of the income or savings from the panels...


I wish I had the start-up money to make some sort of solar or wind energy farm. I'd be more than happy to do so.

The potential long-term savings and income are higher than anything I know of that is both legal and not involving a high amount of luck.
There is no way a solar panel will pay for itself 10 or 15 times over a thirty year period.
Afternoon all. Great stuff in the blog past, Doc. Amazing to think Dr. Simpson is 100 yrs old.... he looks like many 30 years younger....

Slow weather night so i'll throw this out there..just when Global warming is dooming us all...some NEW fact has appeared, ......hope no one here is right now 5'3 your gonna vanish..........................im a rookie at this..............here is the clip.....Global warming ‘could make us shorter’ after horses are found to have shrunk the LAST time the world heated up

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-210 5508/Global-warming-make-shorter-horses-shrunk-tim e-world-heated-up.html#ixzz1sL3SAapi
Hmmmm.... looks like something is brewing....



Say, is that u, alberto???
Quoting nymore:
There is no way a solar panel will pay for itself 10 or 15 times over a thirty year period.


They are down to around $0.80 to $0.85 per watt now, so technically 3.3 to 3.5 year, so I rounded down, sorry.

Additionally, I only used the 6 peak hours of the day, and assumed the 6 sub-optimal hours pretty much don't count, or just make up for cloudy days, etc...
197. wxmod
Southern California thirsty farms and cities and $10 an acre foot water being made. (Who cares if it makes all of us sick)

For those interested, the National Weather Service has released their internal service assessment on the service provided during the 2011 Mississippi River Flood. It was my first really big event since joining the NWS, within my first year of being at the Lower Mississippi RFC. Even with all of the overtime, it certainly isn't an event I'd like to repeat anytime soon.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/assessments/pdfs/Misss issippiRiverFloods12.pdf
Quoting Patrap:


Your not the best economist that's fer sho..


More vulnerability Pat, ever had an expensive car with lots of gadgets?, your not a high roller that's fer sho
Well looky here


a page on the disadvantages of solar powerLink
Quoting ScottLincoln:
For those interested, the National Weather Service has released their internal service assessment on the service provided during the 2011 Mississippi River Flood. It was my first really big event since joining the NWS, within my first year of being at the Lower Mississippi RFC. Even with all of the overtime, it certainly isn't an event I'd like to repeat anytime soon.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/assessments/pdfs/Misss issippiRiverFloods12.pdf

They want to fix the link unless there are three "s"'s in Mississippi. ;)
Quoting ScottLincoln:
For those interested, the National Weather Service has released their internal service assessment on the service provided during the 2011 Mississippi River Flood. It was my first really big event since joining the NWS, within my first year of being at the Lower Mississippi RFC. Even with all of the overtime, it certainly isn't an event I'd like to repeat anytime soon.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/assessments/pdfs/Misss issippiRiverFloods12.pdf
omg all that flooding, must have been an tiring ordeal for you, just witnessing all that
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Thanks Dr. M and enjoy the Conference. God Speed to Dr. Simpson; I am sure it was very moving to see him at the Event.

Another thing we learned from Hurricane Andrew. There were a few write ups on one Gentleman who cut his plywood to fit "inside" the windowsill (and he might have attached them with door bolts to the inside of his windows). If memory serves me correct, his house was one of the only ones standing on his block after Andrew hit as the winds from the storm ripped off the plywood covering on other homes surrounding his which were done in the "regular" way of just bolting or nailing the plywood to the outside of the windows (and blown away by the strong winds creeping in along the edges of the plywood). I am sure that "inside" method had been around for a while, but, after Andrew, we saw a huge marketing and distribution effort by Plylox for their clips which secure the plywood inside the windowsill. I took the Man's lead and have a complete set of "inside" the windowsill triple-ply board with door bolts (and corresponding holes inside the windowsills) in the garage for all the windows in my home if the need arises.
This is how we have ours done too. They didn;t even rattle much during Irene.
Quoting RTSplayer:


They are down to around $0.80 to $0.85 per watt now, so technically 3.3 to 3.5 year, so I rounded down, sorry.

Additionally, I only used the 6 peak hours of the day, and assumed the 6 sub-optimal hours pretty much don't count, or just make up for cloudy days, etc...
Not sure how you arrived at 3.3 or 3.5 years. Can you please provide a study to back up that claim. Per KWH where I live it is 0.07 cents
206. wxmod
Quoting LargoFl:
a page on the disadvantages of solar powerLink



Solar power your life and be a responsible human being. Quit looking for excuses.
Quoting LargoFl:
Slow weather night so i'll throw this out there..just when Global warming is dooming us all...some NEW fact has appeared, ......hope no one here is right now 5'3 your gonna vanish..........................im a rookie at this..............here is the clip.....Global warming ‘could make us shorter’ after horses are found to have shrunk the LAST time the world heated up

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-210 5508/Global-warming-make-shorter-horses-shrunk-tim e-world-heated-up.html#ixzz1sL3SAapi
Us being shorter and smaller in a warmer world makes sense. As a whole, taller humans live in the colder areas and shorter ones in the warmer climes.
Quoting hydrus:
Us being shorter and smaller in a warmer world makes sense. As a whole, taller humans live in the colder areas and shorter ones in the warmer climes.
i took it as that was what they were trying to put across to readers, in a warmer world, shorter would be better, now they are trying to prove with more research if this in fact will happen to us..amazing when you think about it
Quoting wxmod:



Solar power your life and be a responsible human being. Quit looking for excuses.
actually, living in the sunshine state as i do, I would love for them to finally come up with a solar powered car that worked even on a cloudy or rainy day, right now i have a hybrid, get 45 mpg city..but..it uses gasoline, solar would take that away..and outside of the costs of batteries etc, weekly cost would vanish.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They want to fix the link unless there are three "s"'s in Mississippi. ;)


That's kinda funny... I didn't notice that they misspelled it in the filename...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They want to fix the link unless there are three "s"'s in Mississippi. ;)

Actually there are 4...

:):))
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
643 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2012

NCZ020-172315-
YADKIN NC-
643 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT YADKIN COUNTY...

AT 638 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM 5 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF YADKINVILLE TO 9 MILES SOUTH OF EAST BEND...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND PEA-SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE
WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR YADKINVILLE AROUND 650 PM...ENON AROUND 655
PM...NEBO AROUND 705 PM...EAST BEND AROUND 710 PM AND PILOT MOUNTAIN
STATE PARK AROUND 715 PM.

LAT...LON 3605 8085 3606 8088 3607 8088 3626 8068
3625 8067 3625 8065 3627 8064 3625 8046
3623 8043 3614 8044 3611 8046 3610 8050
3604 8050

$$

DS
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
91L kind of looks like Andrea in 2007.



(TAwx13's image)

Compare.
163 RitaEvac: First Solar to cut 2,000 jobs. Europe will bear the brunt of the cuts.
174 RTSplayer: People are stupid...

That ain't the problem that caused the layoffs. FirstWorld-labor-using manufacturers can't make enough money to pay its workers when China has cut prices from ~$1.90 per watt at the beginning of Jan2011 to $0.80to$0.85 per watt at the end of Mar2012.
That's a drop of 55to58% in 15months. And Chinese manufacturers are gonna continue dropping their prices for the foreseeable nearterm future.
Hence the European layoffs before FirstSolar has to declare bankruptcy.

blog2072comment602 aspectre: Global demand for solar panels grew by about 40% last year, but excess manufacturing capacity has created a supply glut that forced companies...to slash prices.
Average...prices for photovoltaic modules...have dropped to 80to85cents per watt, a decline of 10to16% from levels near 95cents recorded at the end of 2011, a year that saw prices fall by about 50%. Those price drops have helped boost solar sales and made solar power less dependent on subsidies to compete against fossil fuels. ...subsidies have declined in Germany and Italy, the two biggest markets.

[Some] panels had been offered at 75cents or below, although that equipment was made by lower-quality "tier 3" companies in China, who appear to be clearing out inventories to raise cash, even if they are selling products at a loss. "Those are essentially going-out-of-business sales."
"It's fully possible that at some point in the year we get to the 70-cent a watt range. The balance between supply and demand right now is very fragile. There's still a massive amount of capacity."
Analysts have forecast total market demand will be near steady with last year's level of ~27GigaWatts.
Quoting nymore:
Not sure how you arrived at 3.3 or 3.5 years. Can you please provide a study to back up that claim. Per KWH where I live it is 0.07 cents


For example, if a solar panel system maximum output is 1000 watts and its cost was $1000, that would work out to a cost of $1/watt. A system of that size could be estimated to produce up to 130kWh of energy over the course of the month, assuming an average of 5hrs of daily sunshine. Assuming the average cost of electricity of ~$0.10/kWh, it would produce roughly $13 worth of electricity per month, or ~$155 per year. Your $1000 investment would be paid off in roughly 6.5 years.

Some companies are now able to produce solar panels for less than $1/watt due to the quick decline in solar panel prices. If the cost for the same solar panel system were $800 ($0.80/watt), it would be paid off in roughly 5 years.

This is just an example and prices vary by company, manufacterer, or average solar insolation. In areas where wholesale electricity is more expensive, your solar panel would pay for itself more quickly. For example, the second situation would be paid off in roughly 3.5 years if you were an average Californian.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


That's kinda funny... I didn't notice that they misspelled it in the filename...
They should change the spelling anyway..Even the people that live there pronounce it " Missippi ".:)
Quoting hydrus:
Us being shorter and smaller in a warmer world makes sense. As a whole, taller humans live in the colder areas and shorter ones in the warmer climes.


I know I've been shrinking this whole past century.
Quoting jeffs713:
nrtiwlnvragn got the first post.


Thanks, Jeff, and Congrats to nrt for being the first to post 91L.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The 18z Surface Analysis chart shows 91L moving South. I think is doing a loop to then go NE as the front west of it kicks it that way.


good evening all
the ITCZ is moving north on the eastern pacific side for the start of there hurricane season
Link
what level wind gust do you guys think occured in the peak of this Charley footage?
Quoting nigel20:
Link
what level wind gust occur in the peak of this Charley footage

That link has nothing to do with hurricanes, lol.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Only the foundation remains...where is this
Quoting nigel20:

Only the foundation remains...where is this

That is damage left over from the preliminary EF4 tornado on Saturday.
Quoting nigel20:
Link
what level wind gust do you guys think occured in the peak of this Charley footage?


Here's the fixed link. (I think)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That link has nothing to do with hurricanes, lol.

whats your estimate of the wind?
Quoting nigel20:

whats your estimate of the wind?

You linked the video incorrectly.
Quoting dogsgomoo:


Here's the fixed link. (I think)

It works when I click it...not sure why it's not working for you
Quoting nigel20:

whats your estimate of the wind?

High-end Category 4 or low-end Category 5 knowing Hurricane Charley.
Quoting dogsgomoo:


Here's the fixed link. (I think)


That was wicked, well done.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

High-end Category 4 or low-end Category 5 knowing Hurricane Charley.

That was some wind...the gas station was rippped to shreds
Quoting nigel20:

whats your estimate of the wind?

That's scary stuff. I'd say that's easily low-end category 5 wind speeds. Probably around 156-160 mph.
TWC says TOR-CON #'S OF 5 and higher are possible late Saturday thru early Sunday. Looks like another outbreak is just around the corner. Accuweather is worried as well.

Charley's extreme eyewall.
TWC has FL up to coastal NC highlighted. People may want to take this serious over the 48 to 72 hours.
Quoting Ameister12:

That's scary stuff. I'd say that's easily low-end category 5 wind speeds. Probably around 156-160 mph.

I agree with you on that
Quoting Ameister12:
Charley's extreme eyewall.

The eyewall was small, but the damage in and around the eyewall was quite extreme
Quoting StormTracker2K:
TWC has FL up to coastal NC highlighted. People may want to take this serious over the 48 to 72 hours.


where are you seeing this, on TV? I just went to their website and they dont show anything past thursday?
Quoting StormTracker2K:
TWC says TOR-CON #'S OF 5 and higher are possible late Saturday thru early Sunday. Looks like another outbreak is just around the corner. Accuweather is worried as well.



Hey Jeff, did you see that on TV or on their web site? I have looked and I have only found the TORCON forecast only goes to Thursday.

Tuesday April 17
GA central, northeast - 2
SC central, north - 2
Other areas - 1 or less


Wednesday April 18
All areas - less than 2


Thursday April 19
KS east - 2 to 3
MO west-central, north - 2 to 3
OK southwest - 2 to 3
OK north-central, northeast - 2 to 3
All areas - less than 2


I know my eyes are not what they used to be, and may be looking totally in the wrong place. TIA
Quoting StormTracker2K:
TWC says TOR-CON #'S OF 5 and higher are possible late Saturday thru early Sunday. Looks like another outbreak is just around the corner. Accuweather is worried as well.


The TOR:CON only goes out three days.
Quoting Grothar:


I know I've been shrinking this whole past century.
Then the globe is warming...:)
Quoting Ameister12:
Charley's extreme eyewall.
boy i remember that storm, my uncles house lost the roof
Quoting nigel20:

The eyewall was small, but the damage in and around the eyewall was quite extreme
yes it was.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The TOR:CON only goes out three days.



lol :)
Wer ya been Emcf30? It has been a while. Hope you are doing good.
Quoting dogsgomoo:


Here's the fixed link. (I think)


Yeah, he's lucky to be alive.

This was a 145mph sustained storm, gusting to maybe 165 or 170mph.

When you consider that took about 4 minutes to destroy the gas station, and a tornado does that sort of damage almost instantaneously, or more likely 10 to 20 seconds, then obviously tornadoes have winds higher than 170mph. I think the radars are probably measuring the velocity of the water, dirt, and suspended debris in a tornado, rather than the actual "wind speed".

I think radars are severely under-estimating the instantaneous "tangential" velocity of tornado winds.

For example, you don't see Charlie's gusts taking houses or giant oak trees airborne the way you see allegedly "EF3 and EF4" tornadoes doing in some videos, and they supposedly have about the same range of winds as Charlie, well, an EF3 supposedly doesn't even have winds as strong as Charlie's maximum gusts.

But when you watch a chaser video, and EF3 or EF4 tornado typically obliterates buildings or forests, often within a second or two, and can take trees, houses, and semi-trucks hundreds of yards into the air above the ground.

To me, that just doesn't quite add up.

We know that the Labor Day hurricane is estimated to be a 200mph sustained hurricane, which implies gusts to maybe 220mph to 225mph, and that de-gloved and de-masked people, but even the Labor Day hurricane did not simply obliterate everything in it's path as tornadoes often do, and it lasted hours. Based on the "velocity squared" rule, this is roughly 50% more powerful per unit surface area than Andrew at landfall...yet it did not do EF3 tornado type damage, except in the case of de-railing a train.
Quoting hydrus:
Wer ya been Emcf30? It has been a while. Hope you are doing good.


Doing good Hydrus, and you?
Quoting Ameister12:
Charley's extreme eyewall.
Charley making landfall...
Quoting ncstorm:


where are you seeing this, on TV? I just went to their website and they dont show anything past thursday?


On TWC about an hour ago on TV. Notice the word possible.

TWC says TOR-CON #'S OF 5 and higher are possible late Saturday thru early Sunday. Looks like another outbreak is just around the corner. Accuweather is worried as well.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The TOR:CON only goes out three days.


No really maybe you should read the post before assuming as usual.
18Z GFDL and HWRF on 91L are up on the FSU site.

GFDL seems to be having issues.
Quoting RTSplayer:


Yeah, he's lucky to be alive.

This was a 145mph sustained storm, gusting to maybe 165 or 170mph.

When you consider that took about 4 minutes to destroy the gas station, and a tornado does that sort of damage almost instantaneously, or more likely 10 to 20 seconds, then obviously tornadoes have winds higher than 170mph. I think the radars are probably measuring the velocity of the water, dirt, and suspended debris in a tornado, rather than the actual "wind speed".

I think radars are severely under-estimating the instantaneous "tangential" velocity of tornado winds.

For example, you don't see Charlie's gusts taking houses or giant oak trees airborne the way you see allegedly "EF3 and EF4" tornadoes doing in some videos, and they supposedly have about the same range of winds as Charlie, well, an EF3 supposedly doesn't even have winds as strong as Charlie's maximum gusts.

But when you watch a chaser video, and EF3 or EF4 tornado typically obliterates buildings or forests, often within a second or two, and can take trees, houses, and semi-trucks hundreds of yards into the air above the ground.

To me, that just doesn't quite add up.

We know that the Labor Day hurricane is estimated to be a 200mph sustained hurricane, which implies gusts to maybe 220mph to 225mph, and that de-gloved and de-masked people, but even the Labor Day hurricane did not simply obliterate everything in it's path as tornadoes often do, and it lasted hours. Based on the "velocity squared" rule, this is roughly 50% more powerful per unit surface area than Andrew at landfall...yet it did not do EF3 tornado type damage, except in the case of de-railing a train.



You're not the only one to notice that. I can honestly say the reason for tornado winds being more destructive than "regular winds" has always puzzled me, considering I haven't taken any of the harder weather classes composed of more complex physics, so I'm not sure I fully understand why it is that way.

Tornado winds only last for seconds and seem to act like a pressure wave from a bomb, causing structures to look as if they are being destroyed by a military weapon, almost instantaneous destruction.
Quoting emcf30:


Doing good Hydrus, and you?
Could use a break to be honest. The weather has been decent here in Middle Tennessee, and very dry at home in S.W.Florida. It is in the low 60,s here and cloudy. Feels more like fall then spring...The South East is gonna get some..
Quoting StormTracker2K:


On TWC about an hour ago on TV. Notice the word possible.

TWC says TOR-CON #'S OF 5 and higher are possible late Saturday thru early Sunday. Looks like another outbreak is just around the corner. Accuweather is worried as well.


SPC may highlight an area tonight, but I still have a hard time believing this potential outbreak... It won't be near the scale of Saturday, or March 2nd for that matter.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
18Z GFDL and HWRF on 91L are up on the FSU site.

GFDL seems to be having issues.

What else is new... Remember when it kept taking Irene into Florida last year
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

SPC may highlight an area tonight, but I still have a hard time believing this potential outbreak... It won't be near the scale of Saturday or March 2nd for that matter.


it only takes one tornado to cause death and destruction! it dosent have to be on a scale of 100 or more tornados to rate it as bad.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

What else is new... Remember when it kept taking Irene into Florida last year



I meant getting "Entire Grid Undefined" on the outer mesh.
Quoting emcf30:


Hey Jeff, did you see that on TV or on their web site? I have looked and I have only found the TORCON forecast only goes to Thursday.

Tuesday April 17
GA central, northeast - 2
SC central, north - 2
Other areas - 1 or less


Wednesday April 18
All areas - less than 2


Thursday April 19
KS east - 2 to 3
MO west-central, north - 2 to 3
OK southwest - 2 to 3
OK north-central, northeast - 2 to 3
All areas - less than 2


I know my eyes are not what they used to be, and may be looking totally in the wrong place. TIA


Hey, emc!

I did find the CAPE for Saturday, though.

Quoting StormTracker2K:


On TWC about an hour ago on TV. Notice the word possible.

TWC says TOR-CON #'S OF 5 and higher are possible late Saturday thru early Sunday. Looks like another outbreak is just around the corner. Accuweather is worried as well.



Yeah Frank Strait is still calling for a bad situation as well. thanks for the info!
Well lets hope Dr.Forbes get better soon. He is off of work until at least Thursday from illness. . Once he returns, he should issue TORCON values for the weekend.
Quoting ncstorm:


it only takes one tornado to cause death and destruction! it dosent have to be on a scale of 100 or more tornados to rate it as bad.

Very true... I was just referring more to the scale of the outbreak in terms of numbers of tornadoes... This potential event could be bad because it would be over much more populated areas.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:



I meant getting "Entire Grid Undefined" on the outer mesh.

I know... The GFDL has plenty of problems :)
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, emc!

I did find the CAPE for Saturday, though.


Hey gro, I found the Cape also. It's right down the street from my house...
Quoting RTSplayer:


Yeah, he's lucky to be alive.

This was a 145mph sustained storm, gusting to maybe 165 or 170mph.

When you consider that took about 4 minutes to destroy the gas station, and a tornado does that sort of damage almost instantaneously, or more likely 10 to 20 seconds, then obviously tornadoes have winds higher than 170mph. I think the radars are probably measuring the velocity of the water, dirt, and suspended debris in a tornado, rather than the actual "wind speed".

I think radars are severely under-estimating the instantaneous "tangential" velocity of tornado winds.

For example, you don't see Charlie's gusts taking houses or giant oak trees airborne the way you see allegedly "EF3 and EF4" tornadoes doing in some videos, and they supposedly have about the same range of winds as Charlie, well, an EF3 supposedly doesn't even have winds as strong as Charlie's maximum gusts.

But when you watch a chaser video, and EF3 or EF4 tornado typically obliterates buildings or forests, often within a second or two, and can take trees, houses, and semi-trucks hundreds of yards into the air above the ground.

To me, that just doesn't quite add up.

We know that the Labor Day hurricane is estimated to be a 200mph sustained hurricane, which implies gusts to maybe 220mph to 225mph, and that de-gloved and de-masked people, but even the Labor Day hurricane did not simply obliterate everything in it's path as tornadoes often do, and it lasted hours. Based on the "velocity squared" rule, this is roughly 50% more powerful per unit surface area than Andrew at landfall...yet it did not do EF3 tornado type damage, except in the case of de-railing a train.
Hurricanes have straight winds while a tornado acts as a vacumm cleaner and can suck a tree from both sides or in other words you have 160 mph winds blowing on the tree from more angles causing the tree to feel the wind from more than 180 degrees of its circle
Quoting hydrus:
Could use a break to be honest. The weather has been decent here in Middle Tennessee, and very dry at home in S.W.Florida. It is in the low 60,s here and cloudy. Feels more like fall then spring...The South East is gonna get some..



According to current models the heaviest precip over the next 5 days should be in Central and north Florida up into eastern Georgia and South Carolina. I'm not really sure then why the HPC is showing the precip map that way, maybe they have access to data I don't or maybe they are just forecasting based on what seems more likely. I do know that the pattern the last few months is for models to tease us here in Florida only to back off the solution and we end up just getting another front with a few scattered showers.

Maybe they aren't buying it yet.
Of course InAccuWeather is going to be worried about it, they're InAccuWeather. As I stated last night, and I'm sticking to it, isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible, but we're not getting a tornado outbreak.
Quoting ncstorm:


Yeah Frank Strait is still calling for a bad situation as well. thanks for the info!


IMO I think 20 to 30 tornadoes Saturday & Sunday. Nothing like last week though.
Quoting emcf30:


Hey gro, I found the Cape also. It's right down the street from my house...


LOL!
Quoting emcf30:


Hey gro, I found the Cape also. It's right down the street from my house...


Glad to see see you haven't lost your sense of humor. Here, I found another CAPE for you.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
815 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2012

SCC007-045-180100-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-120418T0100Z/
ANDERSON SC-GREENVILLE SC-
815 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
GREENVILLE AND EAST CENTRAL ANDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM EDT...

AT 813 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
WILLIAMSTON...OR 14 MILES EAST OF ANDERSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
DONALDSON CENTER.
SIMPSONVILLE.
MAULDIN AND FOUNTAIN INN.
FIVE FORKS AND SHOPS AT GREENRIDGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED
REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3458 8254 3492 8236 3477 8216 3472 8217
3459 8224 3453 8224 3444 8239
TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 218DEG 18KT 3459 8241

$$

NED
Contrary to popular belief and some funny little WU mails I received....NO! The man at the microphone in the last picture in Doc's blog up there is NOT me!!!!
These are some of the most terrifying weather-related photos I've ever seen. These were taken on April 10, 1979 of the Wichita Falls, Texas F4 Tornado.







On the first street of houses to the northeast of Wolfgang Lange's apartment complex, Robert Molet photographed the approaching tornado. The tornado was so big that he didn't notice that the approaching cloud was a tornado until it was too late. Although his house was completely destroyed, Mr. Molet escaped with only minor injuries as his pickup truck was blown over him, protecting him from the worst winds and debris. The tornado's first fatalities were recorded in the apartment complex and adjoining housing area.
Quoting Grothar:
Contrary to popular belief and some funny little WU mails I received....NO! The man at the microphone in the last picture in Doc's blog up there is NOT me!!!!


LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting Grothar:
Contrary to popular belief and some funny little WU mails I received....NO! The man at the microphone in the last picture in Doc's blog up there is NOT me!!!!


He is much too young, no?
So, it's official, we've got Invest 91L. Guess I've been out of the loop today.
Quoting Jedkins01:



According to current models the heaviest precip over the next 5 days should be in Central and north Florida up into eastern Georgia and South Carolina. I'm not really sure then why the HPC is showing the precip map that way, maybe they have access to data I don't or maybe they are just forecasting based on what seems more likely. I do know that the pattern the last few months is for models to tease us here in Florida only to back off the solution and we end up just getting another front with a few scattered showers.

Maybe they aren't buying it yet.
The way the patterns have been lately, I dont blame them. Some patterns, an amateur could pin down a forecast, while other patterns give the Mets a fit, and the models are practically worthless.
Quoting Jedkins01:



You're not the only one to notice that. I can honestly say the reason for tornado winds being more destructive than "regular winds" has always puzzled me, considering I haven't taken any of the harder weather classes composed of more complex physics, so I'm not sure I fully understand why it is that way.

Tornado winds only last for seconds and seem to act like a pressure wave from a bomb, causing structures to look as if they are being destroyed by a military weapon, almost instantaneous destruction.


Yeah.

I recognize there is a sort of "torque" or "vorticity" thing going on in tornadoes because the radius of the turn the wind makes is so much tighter compared to a hurricane, but that alone does not explain the difference in destruction.

Now if tornado winds obey the Carnot limit, then they are a maximum of 66% efficient at doing "work" on solid matter,a nd I screwed around with some numbers and by the time you convert "power" to velocity it means the winds would need to be at least 15% greater than the velocity of the suspended debris.


Additionally, since the wind is moving in a circle, not a straight line, then the regular Doppler effect is not sufficient to measure it's velocity anyway, and will under-estimate the speed of "whatever it's measuring" by a factor approximately equal to PI/2 (the circumference of a semi-circle, which is one half the storm). this is because a certain component of the motion is in a "transverse" direction at any given time relative to the radar.

and so:

Pi/2 = 1.57

If the Doppler radar is only using the regular Doppler effect, and does not apply the transverse Doppler effect, then even the debris is moving about 1.57 times faster than the estimate...

And from reversing the power equation and adjusting for the Carnot limit, we need a factor of 1.15 in addition to that...

Then:



1.15 * 1.57 = 1.80

I used a calculator, but wrote round numbers always here.

Which would suggest the tornado's "winds" are actually 1.8 times faster than it's EF rating implies.
Quoting nofailsafe:
So, it's official, we've got Invest 91L. Guess I've been out of the loop today.


Woah me too is that true!!
Quoting belizeit:
Hurricanes have straight winds while a tornado acts as a vacumm cleaner and can suck a tree from both sides or in other words you have 160 mph winds blowing on the tree from more angles causing the tree to feel the wind from more than 180 degrees of its circle

That's one of the reasons I've always assumed tornadoes are as damaging as they are. And how ones with lower wind speeds/smaller footprints can still tear things up. It's not "just" wind speed. The vortexes created pull and push against the unyielding physical object from countless different directions at once. It's like objects are torn apart, literally exploded if they are hollow, from various angles. Most objects can't resist against the forces from all angles.

(I don't know if i'm using the right terminology here.)
Interesting, change from extratropical to Low


AL 91 2012041612 BEST 0 337N 494W 45 1002 EX
AL 91 2012041618 BEST 0 348N 511W 45 1002 EX
AL 91 2012041700 BEST 0 351N 526W 40 1003 EX
AL 91 2012041706 BEST 0 352N 541W 40 1003 EX
AL 91 2012041712 BEST 0 353N 556W 40 1004 EX
AL 91 2012041718 BEST 0 351N 573W 40 1003 EX
AL 91 2012041800 BEST 0 339N 585W 35 1004 LO
Quoting weatherh98:


Woah me too is that true!!

Yep... And it's a monster



3 CME's firing off at the same exact time.

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

LASCO

ok sorry I am late so it is confirmed we have 91L yes? and model are they running
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Interesting, change from extratropical to Low


AL 91 2012041612 BEST 0 337N 494W 45 1002 EX
AL 91 2012041618 BEST 0 348N 511W 45 1002 EX
AL 91 2012041700 BEST 0 351N 526W 40 1003 EX
AL 91 2012041706 BEST 0 352N 541W 40 1003 EX
AL 91 2012041712 BEST 0 353N 556W 40 1004 EX
AL 91 2012041718 BEST 0 351N 573W 40 1003 EX
AL 91 2012041800 BEST 0 339N 585W 35 1004 LO


Yea! It had to weaken first
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Yep... And it's a monster



Yea lol it's such a scary storm I'm gonna pee on myself
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


He is much too young, no?


Last time I compliment you.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Yep... And it's a monster

LOL
AL912012 - INVEST


Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator) Loop

..click image for loop
Quoting hydrus:
yes it was.

whats up hydrus
Quoting Grothar:


Last time I compliment you.


I did see that, thank you.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:

This is a good little warm up exercise for the models to get them ready for the season... Especially the XTRP, our most advanced model by far.
This is a video of the only major tornado I was ever in. We were in Basic Training at Fort Riley, KS at time. We were outside and had no warning at all when it hit. Most of the men were Easterners and barely knew the signs of a tornado. Luckily, many of the guys were from the midwest and got us inside in time. A lot of people do not remember this one for some reason.

That tiny naked swirl is not what everyone should be looking at. It looks like the energy to the southeast (it's now to the east as this GIF is outdated), that large "blob" will take over. Still, I only put it at a 20% chance. As you can see with Andrea, all of the energy was concentrated at one point, fed by a powerful jet stream. That is not the case with 91L. Multiple vortices within a large cutoff low. Also, much cooler waters out here.


Latest Loop
Quoting Grothar:
Contrary to popular belief and some funny little WU mails I received....NO! The man at the microphone in the last picture in Doc's blog up there is NOT me!!!!

Quoting Patrap:

If only it would organize further. It looks clear to me that Invest 91L is hopeless now. If it would've been a Invest early yesturday my thoughts would be opposite, but currently, though not set in stone, This system will not be our "Alberto"
Quoting Patrap:
AL912012 - INVEST Model Data


The GFDL states it'll peak in strength tonight at 1000 MB then go downhill from there. Which, I agree with...
On Hurricanes and Nadoes's..this Band went thru west of NOLA,thru Hahnville, then Neast to Laplace where it tossed a Police Cruiser into a Home there.

"As Hurricane Andrew approached Louisiana, an isolated storm on one of Andrew's raindbands spawned a tornado that traveled west-northwestward through Laplace, Louisiana. The tornado damage path was 9 miles long and about 150 yards wide. The tornado was rated F3 on the Fujita damage scale. Damage to homes was more severe in the tornado than hurricane-caused damage to similarly constructed homes in Louisiana. The tornado lasted ten minutes beginning around 8:10pm."




- 2 fatalities occurred in this town,Laplace Louisiana

The Only loss of life in Louisiana from Andrew was from this F-3 long track Tornado.

That Band was the nastiest by far from his Impact.

HURRICANE ANDREW STORM SURVEY

by Tim Marshall

September 13, 1992
Quoting RTSplayer:


Yeah.

I recognize there is a sort of "torque" or "vorticity" thing going on in tornadoes because the radius of the turn the wind makes is so much tighter compared to a hurricane, but that alone does not explain the difference in destruction.

Now if tornado winds obey the Carnot limit, then they are a maximum of 66% efficient at doing "work" on solid matter,a nd I screwed around with some numbers and by the time you convert "power" to velocity it means the winds would need to be at least 15% greater than the velocity of the suspended debris.


Additionally, since the wind is moving in a circle, not a straight line, then the regular Doppler effect is not sufficient to measure it's velocity anyway, and will under-estimate the speed of "whatever it's measuring" by a factor approximately equal to PI/2 (the circumference of a semi-circle, which is one half the storm). this is because a certain component of the motion is in a "transverse" direction at any given time relative to the radar.

and so:

Pi/2 = 1.57

If the Doppler radar is only using the regular Doppler effect, and does not apply the transverse Doppler effect, then even the debris is moving about 1.57 times faster than the estimate...

And from reversing the power equation and adjusting for the Carnot limit, we need a factor of 1.15 in addition to that...

Then:



1.15 * 1.57 = 1.80

I used a calculator, but wrote round numbers always here.

Which would suggest the tornado's "winds" are actually 1.8 times faster than it's EF rating implies.



Hmm, I'm sure though meteorologists have been well aware of this, I'm quite sure we are not the only ones to notice this lol. My guess is that the actual force applied to objects and surfaces ends up being greater because of the way tornado winds interact with a surface as apposed to straight line winds. Maybe I'm reading you wrong but it sounds like your implying that the EF scale doesn't accurately demonstrate the power of tornado winds? I'm quite sure the people who involved know a lot more about tornado physics then we do...


I have advanced quite far into mathematics but I have not taken the core classes on the physics of meteorology so I only know more general basic principles physics and although I probably know mathematical explanations for it I just don't realize it yet, lol.

I just don't want to sound stupid so I'm sort of holing back as to how I interpret it it, but I think you have to take into account the extreme rate of change of pressure allowing a vacuum effect(not true vacuum of course because a true vacuum is empty space) which I think might allow more force applied to a given surface for a given wind speed as apposed to straight line winds...

I might be wrong on that, but keep in mind I'm experimenting with something that I just don't know that much about.


Quoting belizeit:
Hurricanes have straight winds while a tornado acts as a vacumm cleaner and can suck a tree from both sides or in other words you have 160 mph winds blowing on the tree from more angles causing the tree to feel the wind from more than 180 degrees of its circle

Agreed...plus the highest wind gust on earth was in TC Olivia in the 90's with a gust of 253mph
Quoting CybrTeddy:



Here, pick one. :P LOL

Quoting nigel20:

whats up hydrus
Hello to you.
Quoting Grothar:


Here, pick one. :P LOL


How are you Grothar?
Quoting Grothar:
This is a video of the only major tornado I was ever in. We were in Basic Training at Fort Riley, KS at time. We were outside and had no warning at all when it hit. Most of the men were Easterners and barely knew the signs of a tornado. Luckily, many of the guys were from the midwest and got us inside in time. A lot of people do not remember this one for some reason.

Thank you for posting the video. I remember Bill Kurtis talking about that tornado a long time ago on TV.
Quoting Jedkins01:



Hmm, I'm sure though meteorologists have been well aware of this, I'm quite sure we are not the only ones to notice this lol. My guess is that the actual force applied to objects and surfaces ends up being greater because of the way tornado winds interact with a surface as apposed to straight line winds. Maybe I'm reading you wrong but it sounds like your implying that the EF scale doesn't accurately demonstrate the power of tornado winds? I'm quite sure the people who involved know a lot more about tornado physics then we do...


I have advanced quite far into mathematics but I have not taken the core classes on the physics of meteorology so I only know more general basic principles physics and although I probably know mathematical explanations for it I just don't realize it yet, lol.

I just don't want to sound stupid so I'm sort of holing back as to how I interpret it it, but I think you have to take into account the extreme rate of change of pressure allowing a vacuum effect(not true vacuum of course because a true vacuum is empty space) which I think might allow more force applied to a given surface for a given wind speed as apposed to straight line winds...

I might be wrong on that, but keep in mind I'm experimenting with something that I just don't know that much about.




Yes because basically a tornado is a warm air rising (due to coriolis effect the wind turns at right angles as it enters the tornado), the rising is getting pulled up so fast in the center that it becomes a "vacuum" so to speak!!
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:







Link

thanks for the suggestions nrtiwlnvragn...i definitely used them
Quoting nigel20:

Agreed...plus the highest wind gust on earth was in TC Olivia in the 90's with a gust of 253mph
it is hard for me to imagine a wind gust of 253 mph.
Caribbean Terrace, Kingston, Jamaica after storm surge from both hurricane Dean and Ivan....after five years it's virtually abandoned
In case anybody was wondering, here is the 12.5 month outlook from the NWS....lol
Solar Eruption yesterday.. not toward Earth... whew
Quoting nigel20:

How are you Grothar?


OK! and you?
Quoting hydrus:
it is hard for me to imagine a wind gust of 253 mph.

Yeah, 253 mph is unimaginable
Quoting Grothar:


OK! and you?

I'm good...i'm enjoying the early rains as well, keeping temps relatively cool down here
Quoting nigel20:
Caribbean Terrace, Kingston, Jamaica after storm surge from both hurricane Dean and Ivan....after five years it's virtually abandoned
Hurricane Dean making its landfall on the en:Yucatn Peninsula as a Category 5 hurricane. Image from a NOAA GOES satellite, using the AVN color enhancement on en:August 21, en:2007 at 08:45 (en:UTC)Dean was definitely mean.....Hurricane Dean was the strongest tropical cyclone of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season. It was the most intense Atlantic hurricane since Hurricane Wilma of 2005, tying for seventh overall. Additionally, it made the third most intense Atlantic hurricane landfall. A Cape Verde-type hurricane that formed on August 13, 2007, Dean took a west-northwest path from the eastern Atlantic Ocean through the Saint Lucia Channel and into the Caribbean Sea. It strengthened into a major hurricane, reaching Category 5 status on the Saffir%u2013Simpson Hurricane Scale before passing just south of Jamaica on August 20. The storm made landfall on the Yucatn Peninsula on August 21 as a powerful Category 5 storm. It crossed the peninsula and emerged into the Bay of Campeche weakened, but still a hurricane. It strengthened briefly before making a second landfall near Tecolutla in the Mexican state of Veracruz on August 22. Dean drifted to the northwest, weakening into a remnant low which dissipated uneventfully over the southwestern United States.

The hurricane's intense winds, waves, rains and storm surge were responsible for at least 45 deaths across ten countries and caused estimated damages of US$16.9 billion. First impacting the islands of the Lesser Antilles, Dean's path through the Caribbean devastated agricultural crops, particularly those of Martinique and Jamaica. Upon reaching Mexico, Hurricane Dean was a Category 5 storm, but it missed major population centers and its exceptional Category 5 strength landfall caused no deaths and less damage than in the Caribbean islands it passed as a Category 2 storm.

Through the affected regions, cleanup and repair took months to complete. Donations solicited by international aid organizations joined national funds in clearing roads, rebuilding houses, and replanting destroyed crops. In Jamaica, where the damage was worst, banana production did not return to pre-storm levels for over a year. Mexico's tourist industry, too, took almost a year to rebuild its damaged cruise ship infrastructure.

Dean was the first hurricane to make landfall in the Atlantic basin at Category 5 intensity since Hurricane Andrew on August 24, 1992.[1] Dean's Category 5 landfall was in a sparsely populated area and thus far less damaging than Andrew's, even though Dean was much larger, but its long swath of damage earned its name retirement from the World Meteorological Organization's Atlantic hurricane naming lists. WIKI.
Hurricane Dean at peak intensity while approaching the Yucatán Peninsula.
Quoting hydrus:
Hurricane Dean making its landfall on the en:Yucat�n Peninsula as a Category 5 hurricane. Image from a NOAA GOES satellite, using the AVN color enhancement on en:August 21, en:2007 at 08:45 (en:UTC)Dean was definitely mean.....Hurricane Dean was the strongest tropical cyclone of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season. It was the most intense Atlantic hurricane since Hurricane Wilma of 2005, tying for seventh overall. Additionally, it made the third most intense Atlantic hurricane landfall. A Cape Verde-type hurricane that formed on August 13, 2007, Dean took a west-northwest path from the eastern Atlantic Ocean through the Saint Lucia Channel and into the Caribbean Sea. It strengthened into a major hurricane, reaching Category 5 status on the Saffir%u2013Simpson Hurricane Scale before passing just south of Jamaica on August 20. The storm made landfall on the Yucat�n Peninsula on August 21 as a powerful Category 5 storm. It crossed the peninsula and emerged into the Bay of Campeche weakened, but still a hurricane. It strengthened briefly before making a second landfall near Tecolutla in the Mexican state of Veracruz on August 22. Dean drifted to the northwest, weakening into a remnant low which dissipated uneventfully over the southwestern United States.

The hurricane's intense winds, waves, rains and storm surge were responsible for at least 45 deaths across ten countries and caused estimated damages of US$16.9 billion. First impacting the islands of the Lesser Antilles, Dean's path through the Caribbean devastated agricultural crops, particularly those of Martinique and Jamaica. Upon reaching Mexico, Hurricane Dean was a Category 5 storm, but it missed major population centers and its exceptional Category 5 strength landfall caused no deaths and less damage than in the Caribbean islands it passed as a Category 2 storm.

Through the affected regions, cleanup and repair took months to complete. Donations solicited by international aid organizations joined national funds in clearing roads, rebuilding houses, and replanting destroyed crops. In Jamaica, where the damage was worst, banana production did not return to pre-storm levels for over a year. Mexico's tourist industry, too, took almost a year to rebuild its damaged cruise ship infrastructure.

Dean was the first hurricane to make landfall in the Atlantic basin at Category 5 intensity since Hurricane Andrew on August 24, 1992.[1] Dean's Category 5 landfall was in a sparsely populated area and thus far less damaging than Andrew's, even though Dean was much larger, but its long swath of damage earned its name retirement from the World Meteorological Organization's Atlantic hurricane naming lists. WIKI.

Thanks for the article hydrus
Quoting hydrus:
Hurricane Dean at peak intensity while approaching the Yucatán Peninsula.

luckily only the outer eyewall affected us
Quoting RTSplayer:


YWhen you consider that took about 4 minutes to destroy the gas station, and a tornado does that sort of damage almost instantaneously, or more likely 10 to 20 seconds, then obviously tornadoes have winds higher than 170mph. I think the radars are probably measuring the velocity of the water, dirt, and suspended debris in a tornado, rather than the actual "wind speed".

I think radars are severely under-estimating the instantaneous "tangential" velocity of tornado winds.

For example, you don't see Charlie's gusts taking houses or giant oak trees airborne the way you see allegedly "EF3 and EF4" tornadoes doing in some videos, and they supposedly have about the same range of winds as Charlie, well, an EF3 supposedly doesn't even have winds as strong as Charlie's maximum gusts.


There are reasons for the differences you note...

Typically, tornadic winds have substantially larger amounts of debris within. That adds extra momentum and damage potential to structures that are hit.

Some buildings and even vegetation in hurricane zones tend to be more wind-resistant than buildings and vegetation located in the plains.

Tornadic winds can change much more quickly over time than those in a hurricane, which can cause more stress to certain structures.

It has been shown through engineering studies and modeling that wind with a twisting/turning component causes more damage than straight-line winds of similar speeds.

Quoting weatherh98:


Yes because basically a tornado is a warm air rising (due to coriolis effect the wind turns at right angles as it enters the tornado), the rising is getting pulled up so fast in the center that it becomes a "vacuum" so to speak!!


No.
Quoting weatherh98:


Yes because basically a tornado is a warm air rising (due to coriolis effect the wind turns at right angles as it enters the tornado), the rising is getting pulled up so fast in the center that it becomes a "vacuum" so to speak!!


Careful not to blame the coriolis effect for all rotating phenomena. It actually has essentially zero effect on tornadoes because of their small size. Don't forget that there can be clockwise-rotating supercells in the northern hemisphere, along with their tornadoes. However, most thunderstorms in the NHEM do take the hint from the coriolis and rotate counterclockwise. The tornado's rotation direction is then determined by the rotation of the parent thunderstorm, but is not directly affected by the coriolis effect. It's the same reason why the direction of rotation of water going down a drain is not determined by the coriolis effect either.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


There are reasons for the differences you note...

Typically, tornadic winds have substantially larger amounts of debris within. That adds extra momentum and damage potential to structures that are hit.

Some buildings and even vegetation in hurricane zones tend to be more wind-resistant than buildings and vegetation located in the plains.

Tornadic winds can change much more quickly over time than those in a hurricane, which can cause more stress to certain structures.

It has been shown through engineering studies and modeling that wind with a twisting/turning component causes more damage than straight-line winds of similar speeds.


Great post
I would think tornados of similar windspeed do more damage than hurricanes because they are also pulling upwards. Homes are built to withstand sideways winds and gravity. Roofs are most succeptible to upwards forces. Would also explain why we see trees blown over in hurricanes, but ripped upwards in tornados.

Also, hurricanes often do a lot of wind damage when the eye passes and the winds switch directions. This happens in a matter of seconds with tornados, which could also explain the quicker rate of destruction. Add in the smaller radius, and it means a single point which might get 2 wind directions from the eyewall of a hurricane, but in a tight tornado a single house could get maximum winds from every direction.
I would love to walk into an EF0 in the middle of a field with no debris.

I would not however want to walk into an upper-end EF4 that stripped trees of bark, decimated a farmstead, and scoured the ground.

April 17 SST anomaly
Quoting winter123:
That tiny naked swirl is not what everyone should be looking at. It looks like the energy to the southeast (it's now to the east as this GIF is outdated), that large "blob" will take over. Still, I only put it at a 20% chance. As you can see with Andrea, all of the energy was concentrated at one point, fed by a powerful jet stream. That is not the case with 91L. Multiple vortices within a large cutoff low. Also, much cooler waters out here.


Latest Loop


The latest loops can be found here (the one you posted came from there as well).
Quoting Levi32:


The latest loops can be found here (the one you posted came from there as well).

I have to say Levi, your animations are useful. :P
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Great post

I second that
740

WHXX01 KWBC 180045

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0045 UTC WED APR 18 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912012) 20120418 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120418 0000 120418 1200 120419 0000 120419 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 33.9N 58.5W 33.3N 59.7W 32.1N 60.7W 30.1N 61.3W

BAMD 33.9N 58.5W 31.1N 58.3W 30.1N 54.8W 31.2N 51.7W

BAMM 33.9N 58.5W 32.0N 59.2W 30.2N 57.7W 29.4N 54.7W

LBAR 33.9N 58.5W 32.6N 59.4W 31.4N 59.4W 30.6N 58.7W

SHIP 35KTS 35KTS 34KTS 32KTS

DSHP 35KTS 35KTS 34KTS 32KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120420 0000 120421 0000 120422 0000 120423 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 28.4N 61.2W 26.9N 61.0W 27.0N 61.5W 28.3N 63.4W

BAMD 32.9N 49.7W 36.0N 46.5W 39.0N 43.2W 41.2N 39.3W

BAMM 30.0N 51.6W 32.8N 46.3W 36.3N 42.7W 39.0N 41.0W

LBAR 30.4N 57.7W 30.3N 55.7W 29.6N 52.4W 30.4N 47.4W

SHIP 29KTS 22KTS 22KTS 27KTS

DSHP 29KTS 22KTS 22KTS 27KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 33.9N LONCUR = 58.5W DIRCUR = 250DEG SPDCUR = 13KT

LATM12 = 35.3N LONM12 = 55.6W DIRM12 = 269DEG SPDM12 = 13KT

LATM24 = 35.1N LONM24 = 52.6W

WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 40KT

CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 350NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 140NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 130NM RD34NW = 120NM



$$

NNNN
209

WHXX04 KWBC 172339

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL STORM INVEST 91L



INITIAL TIME 18Z APR 17



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 35.0 57.4 270./13.0

6 34.5 58.2 243./ 8.5

12 33.7 58.7 212./ 8.7

18 33.1 58.8 181./ 6.3

24 32.5 58.7 171./ 6.2

30 31.7 58.1 146./ 9.0

36 31.0 57.5 140./ 8.4

42 30.5 56.8 124./ 8.6



STORM DISSIPATED AT 42 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.



Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I would love to walk into an EF0 in the middle of a field with no debris.

I would not however want to walk into an upper-end EF4 that stripped trees of bark, decimated a farmstead, and scoured the ground.



Maybe you mean this one.

Smithville,MS


Quoting StormTracker2K:


Maybe you mean this one.

Smithville,MS



I would rather not walk into a tornado with winds over 200 mph either.

Night everybody.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I would rather not walk into a tornado with winds over 200 mph either.

Night everybody.


LOL! Yeah that wouldn't be good! Have a good night and sorry for being snippy earlier as I had a long day. Sorry for any hard feelings.
Quoting weatherh98:


Yes because basically a tornado is a warm air rising (due to coriolis effect the wind turns at right angles as it enters the tornado), the rising is getting pulled up so fast in the center that it becomes a "vacuum" so to speak!!


In and of itself, a "vacuum" has no lifting power.

A vacuum ship or a lighter than air ship is not the same thing. That's buoyancy.

Wind is caused by temperature and pressure differential, and the limit of work under thermodynamics can be calculated using known formulas.


A true "vacuum" does no work on it's own. It would only cause work as a liquid or gas attempts to expand to fill the vacuum due to the lower boiling point and gas laws, and the rate of this expansion and work that it can do is limited by thermodynamics and temperature differences.


The vertical component of tornado winds would only affect lifting power once the object or particle is already in the air, since you'd need the wind to "get under" the object. So for example, neither the upward motion of the air rushing into the vortex, nor any "vacuum" effects would explain the scouring of pavement or concrete. Those would need to be explained through collisions and "sand blasting" effects caused by other debris pulverizing the pavement at various scales, ranging from molecular to macroscopic.


People use air hammers and sledge hammers to break up concrete and it takes a LOT of work to break up a few feet of reinforced concrete that way, using machines and tools specifically designed for the job...and for example, making a clean cut in concrete would require either a laser or a diamond tipped saw with water cooling.

Hurricanes can scour pavement, but every case I've heard of involved the wave action and storm surge washing the road out from beneath, not sandblasting it from above the way a tornado does.

A tornado somehow does it in an open system, apparently using nothing but dirt, air, and water.
Quoting nigel20:

Agreed...plus the highest wind gust on earth was in TC Olivia in the 90's with a gust of 253mph


Ok, that's definitely not accurate.

The highest measured wind speed on Earth, according to an actual instrument, is the Moore tornado at 318mph.
Wunderpics I took of Discovery leaving KSC this morning.


Fresh ASCAT
Moore tornado

Record

As the tornado moved into Oklahoma City, a mobile Doppler weather Radar recorded a gust within the tornado between 281 and 321 mph (452 and 517 km/h), the highest winds ever recorded.[12] However, since the record for maximum winds only applies to surface winds, and the radar was observing the tornado 100 metres (330ft) or more above the ground, the 253mph (407km/h) wind gust from Cyclone Olivia in 1996 retained the title.[13]


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Bridge_Creek_%u 2013_Moore_tornado
Quoting RTSplayer:


Ok, that's definitely not accurate.

The highest measured wind speed on Earth, according to an actual instrument, is the Moore tornado at 318mph.

are you sure that's accurate.....i thought that measurement was from unconfirmed doppler radar measurement
Additionally, the Bernoulli effect cannot explain the scouring of pavement.

In fact, wind tunnel experiments have even shown that the Bernoulli effect can't even explain the majority of the lift provided by a Bernoulli wing!

if you want to see why, go get a simple box fan and watch how it works. It "beats" the air in the preferred direction by what amounts to friction and vector sums.

If the fan's motor is strong enough, it can generate lift and fly, even though the blades are not at all shaped like Bernoulli wings, simply by "beating" the air.

So anyway, vacuum effects and Bernoulli effects do not explain any of the problematic phenomena in tornadoes, such as pavement scouring, and tree and semi levitation, etc.


Good Night Folks.
Quoting Levi32:


Careful not to blame the coriolis effect for all rotating phenomena. It actually has essentially zero effect on tornadoes because of their small size. Don't forget that there can be clockwise-rotating supercells in the northern hemisphere, along with their tornadoes. However, most thunderstorms in the NHEM do take the hint from the coriolis and rotate counterclockwise. The tornado's rotation direction is then determined by the rotation of the parent thunderstorm, but is not directly affected by the coriolis effect. It's the same reason why the direction of rotation of water going down a drain is not determined by the coriolis effect either.

Hey Levi, what do you think about our 91L?
Skyepony, thanks for the words of support in the previous blog. I agree that geometric laws are found throughout nature. In fluid dynamics, these laws most often take the form of logarithmic spirals, geometric progressions, and power laws. What I find most curious are that lines, circles, and corners seem to appear in satellite imagery, which are highly ordered entropically and therefore should tend to violate the 2nd law. That such regular Euclidian features are identified in space transformed from spherical coords to planar coords is even all the more curious.

I enjoy observing the weather, particularly severe weather, as the much as the rest of you. It is one of the crowning glories of this earth. Whatever observations I show, I try to be as accurate as possible out of respect for the inherent beauty of the weather.

For those who may be interested, a rough forensic analysis of the past 6 hours of the new invest has been uploaded to askwhy333.minus.com.
KoTG
Good to see you back again.
So what was it that happened to
your computer to cause you
such grief the other day?
Quoting ScottLincoln:


There are reasons for the differences you note...

Typically, tornadic winds have substantially larger amounts of debris within. That adds extra momentum and damage potential to structures that are hit.

Some buildings and even vegetation in hurricane zones tend to be more wind-resistant than buildings and vegetation located in the plains.

Tornadic winds can change much more quickly over time than those in a hurricane, which can cause more stress to certain structures.

It has been shown through engineering studies and modeling that wind with a twisting/turning component causes more damage than straight-line winds of similar speeds.



No.



But because of the way tornado winds behave, is there more force overall being applied across a surface than with straight line winds? That is what I am not sure about, I guess having the type of mind that I have I want to know the details, and turning twisting component just doesn't cut it for me, I want to know why the turning/twisting component of tornado winds leads to more destruction. Granted, you must take into account the concentrated debris field in the vortex that acts like missiles of various shape and mass that also does damage, but I would think that's not the only reason for additional destruction.

For example, lets say you have a a given wind at 150 mph flowing into a tornado, as that wind is flowing in, wouldn't the force of wind be applied across a greater surface area than with straight line winds because of the behavior of the vector field? I'm having a hard time expressing this still, textually, I could probably express it better graphically on paper.



Or I could just wait till I take some in depth MET courses on this type of material :)


My observation from watching tornado videos, is that it seems to be that the most damage is done as a tornado is just passing associated with the inflow winds. Maybe its just that wind speed is stronger there, I'm not sure, but I have noticed that frequently.
I think 91L will grow and become a STS by 2morrow or Thurs
Quoting nigel20:
April 17 SST anomaly


so overall...the entire ocean is much cooler than average??
91L has now dislocated its E/SE front now needs to get rid of its N front

Quoting Jedkins01:



But because of the way tornado winds behave, is there more force overall being applied across a surface than with straight line winds? That is what I am not sure about, I guess having the type of mind that I have I want to know the details, and turning twisting component just doesn't cut it for me, I want to know why the turning/twisting component of tornado winds leads to more destruction. Granted, you must take into account the concentrated debris field in the vortex that acts like missiles of various shape and mass that also does damage, but I would think that's not the only reason for additional destruction.

For example, lets say you have a a given wind at 150 mph flowing into a tornado, as that wind is flowing in, wouldn't the force of wind be applied across a greater surface area than with straight line winds because of the behavior of the vector field? I'm having a hard time expressing this still, textually, I could probably express it better graphically on paper.



Or I could just wait till I take some in depth MET courses on this type of material :)


My observation from watching tornado videos, is that it seems to be that the most damage is done as a tornado is just passing associated with the inflow winds. Maybe its just that wind speed is stronger there, I'm not sure, but I have noticed that frequently.

whats up Jedkins....is doppler radar wind measurement accurrate and what is the higjest official wind gust on earth?
Praying for rain again, not a drop here in South Central Texas since March 20th. Just got back from a Trip to New Mexico where I saw snow. Driving thru west texas it was in low 90s Saturday and 34 and snowing East of Albuquerque about 2 hours later, what a trip. Unfortnately here around Austin it is getting pretty darn dry again and the outlook is calling for dryer than normal, not good after what we went thru last year.
Quoting nigel20:

are you sure that's accurate.....i thought that measurement was from unconfirmed doppler radar measurement


Doppler radar measurement is the only reliable way to directly measure a tornado, since any physical instrument imaginable would be destroyed.

Ok, theoretically, you could use a high speed camera and track the suspended debris' movement from one side of the funnel to the other, and then reverse the formula I showed above to get the wind speeds, but for that to work, you need several points of reference to define the scale properly to get the velocity.

For that to work, as I showed, you'd need to recognize that an apparent linear motion from one side of the funnel to the other is actually a circular motion around a semi-circle, and thus needs scaling by a factor of pi/2.

As stated, that could theoretically work, but you need to know your camera's distance to the tornado very precisely, preferably within 100 yards of error, and you need to know the exact width of the funnel, honestly almost perfectly.


Even that won't give you peak wind speeds, because the peak wind speeds are invisible, inside the funnel, and completely obscured by the debris cloud.
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


so overall...the entire ocean is much cooler than average??

the blue and purple colours are showing cooler than normal...while the green, yellow, red colours...are showing warmer than normal anomalies

So Alberto wants to form after all. Hah.


askwhy333.minus.com for additional images.
Quoting RTSplayer:


Doppler radar measurement is the only reliable way to directly measure a tornado, since any physical instrument imaginable would be destroyed.

Ok, theoretically, you could use a high speed camera and track the suspended debris' movement from one side of the funnel to the other, and then reverse the formula I showed above to get the wind speeds, but for that to work, you need several points of reference to define the scale properly to get the velocity.

For that to work, as I showed, you'd need to recognize that an apparent linear motion from one side of the funnel to the other is actually a circular motion around a semi-circle, and thus needs scaling by a factor of pi/2.

As stated, that could theoretically work, but you need to know your camera's distance to the tornado very precisely, preferably within 100 yards of error, and you need to know the exact width of the funnel, honestly almost perfectly.


Even that won't give you peak wind speeds, because the peak wind speeds are invisible, inside the funnel, and completely obscured by the debris cloud.

yeah, but what level are those wind speeds measured...remember that with hurricanes winds are stronger in the upper level, but those wind speeds are reduced by a certain percentage to estimate the winds at ground level
Evening All. Rather large timimg/location spread between the ECMWF and the GFS this evening concerning our weekend severe weather possibilities. GFS is much more progressive with the low and further north.

ECMWF @ 144hrs



GFS @ 108hrs



Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Praying for rain again, not a drop here in South Central Texas since March 20th. Just got back from a Trip to New Mexico where I saw snow. Driving thru west texas it was in low 90s Saturday and 34 and snowing East of Albuquerque about 2 hours later, what a trip. Unfortnately here around Austin it is getting pretty darn dry again and the outlook is calling for dryer than normal, not good after what we went thru last year.


Bo:

You missed Austin's 100% chance of rain last Sunday. (San Antonio had 70%) Nothing happened. Same old... same old..
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


so overall...the entire ocean is much cooler than average??


Yes and no.

The surface temperature overall are the coolest they've been in several years.

The average temperature of the ocean from top to about 1000m depth is currently increasing about 0.1C per decade, and the average temperature in the arctic and antarctic circles is currently increasing by over 0.2c per decade for the entire water column.

From that perspective, a few tenths change in average surface temperature is somewhat meaningless: 1m being slightly cool vs 1000m or up to 3000m being significantly warmer...


Give it a few more decades and minor surface defects caused by natural cycles, wind, and cloud cover will become negligible.
Quoting KoritheMan:
So Alberto wants to form after all. Hah.

Hey Kotithe?
Quoting nigel20:

Hey Kotithe?


Hey. Stick around, I'll have a blog entry up on 91L later.
Good evening to you too progressivepulse
Quoting KoritheMan:


Hey. Stick around, I'll have a blog entry up on 91L later.

i'll be off to bed soon, but I will have a read when you post it
Hey.... looks like the models have a handle on this thing... amazing to see it coming together pretty much as they projected it would...

Honestly, I don't think subtropical storms should be named from the regular list. I'm a big fan of the pre-2002 idea of just numbering them. Or maybe when they were named from a separate list in the 70s. I feel a name is something only fully tropical storms should get to carry. Naming these subtropical storms seems like a way to inflate the number of named storms in a season. At least their ACE doesn't count.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey.... looks like the models have a handle on this thing... amazing to see it coming together pretty much as they projected it would...


Agreed...whats up Baha?
Quoting wxgeek723:
Honestly, I don't think subtropical storms should be named from the regular list. I'm a big fan of the pre-2002 idea of just numbering them. Or maybe when they were named from a separate list in the 70s. I feel a name is something only fully tropical storms should get to carry. Naming these subtropical storms seems like a way to inflate the number of named storms in a season. At least their ACE doesn't count.


It gets the public to pay attention, doesn't it?
Quoting KoritheMan:


It gets the public to pay attention, doesn't it?


What does that do though? Most of them form out in the middle of the Atlantic and spin harmlessly out to sea anyway.
Quoting wxgeek723:


What does that do though? Most of them form out in the middle of the Atlantic and spin harmlessly out to sea anyway.


What wouldn't it do? It's a marine interest.
This thing actually has a realistic chance to dive southwards by about another 4 or 5 degrees.

This is kinda crazy, since most "extra-tropical" systems tend to just race off to the north or north-east at like 30 to 50mph...
Quoting KoritheMan:


What wouldn't it do? It's a marine interest.


By that logic, we should be naming extratropical cyclones as well since they pose just as much of a threat to shipping interests. Plus a lot of those storms are more powerful than disorganized subtropical storms.
Quoting RTSplayer:
This thing actually has a realistic chance to dive southwards by about another 4 or 5 degrees.

This is kinda crazy, since most "extra-tropical" systems tend to just race off to the north or north-east at like 30 to 50mph...


No they don't. At least not ones that are cut off from the jet stream like 91L is. Acceleration comes later.
Quoting wxgeek723:


By that logic, we should be naming extratropical cyclones as well since they pose just as much of a threat to shipping interests. Plus a lot of those storms are more powerful than disorganized subtropical storms.


Subtropical storms have a specific criteria for naming, while extratropical storms don't, since the latter actually possess shallow warm cores in the lower troposphere.
Good night all
Quoting KoritheMan:


Subtropical storms have a specific criteria for naming, while extratropical storms don't, since the latter actually possess shallow warm cores in the lower troposphere.


Sure they're worth making note of, but why do they deserve the same kind of attention tropical storms get? Just because they're on their way there? I don't see a justification for naming them until they complete the transition process.
Time to shove off. Stay safe all. Catch you on the other side.
Quoting wxgeek723:


Sure they're worth making note of, but why do they deserve the same kind of attention tropical storms get? Just because they're on their way there? I don't see a justification for naming them until they complete the transition process.


We have to decide that for ourselves. I for one agree with official policy, but have no real reason to go against your claim, either.
Quoting nigel20:

yeah, but what level are those wind speeds measured...remember that with hurricanes winds are stronger in the upper level, but those wind speeds are reduced by a certain percentage to estimate the winds at ground level


Well, you have to figure that out through some sort of experiment anyway.

The surface winds are what I really care about.

For example, taking a semi truck airborne requires a certain minimum surface wind, regardless of what our error in measurement is.

This could be tested in a large enough facility using a very, very large compressed air gun, assuming you could construct a tank capable of holding the amount of air pressure needed to simulate winds in the 200mph to 300mph ranges.

But I would like to say, compressed air gun tests as they are normally done are not representative of hurricane or tornado winds. What they do is put a 2by4 in a gun an shoot it at 100mph, etc.

What I would do is have the semi truck sitting in an open space, adn shoot it with a blast of compressed air from a gun having a cross-sectional area similar to the truck, with an muzzle velocity of the air being adjusted so that it is moving at tornado force when it contacts the truck, no "projectile" involved, and let's see what happens, and then "Mythbusters style" replicate the conditions needed to take the truck airborne at a 45 degree angle for at least some distance, just like you see in the storm chase videos...without pre-loading it in the cannon, and without striking it with another object pre-loaded in the cannon...

Unfortunately, nuclear testing and other bomb testing are unfair, because they involve heat, radiation, and chemical effects which contaminate what we'd want to know from just wind and debris.

I am not a fan of "scaled model" testing, because mass and surface area do not scale proportionately.

Additionally, I know enough about physics to know that the behaviors of various substances, such as water, in different types of collisions and other situations can change in highly unexpected ways which cannot be accounted for in "scaled" testing.
Quoting nigel20:

whats up Jedkins....is doppler radar wind measurement accurrate and what is the higjest official wind gust on earth?



Well the Moore Oklahoma tornado is known to be the highest wind measurement at 318 mph which would be the highest ever officially. The thing is, I can't really make a judgment call on if that was an accurate measurement because doppler radar is variable with accuracy depending on the radar and situation, and I don't have personal experience with the specifics on the radar that gave that wind speed and how high of an accuracy rating it is supposed to have. However I would imagine its accurate because I'm not aware of any scholarly report debunking it.
Quoting KoritheMan:


We have to decide that for ourselves. I for one agree with official policy, but have no real reason to go against your claim, either.


Haha this is true. I value your opinion as well. I just don't see where the NHC suddenly got the idea. Maybe if there was a damaging subtropical storm and people didn't pay attention and weren't prepared since it didn't have a name, then it's understandable. But as far as I know, the decision was spontaneous.
Quoting wxgeek723:


Haha this is true. I value your opinion as well. I just don't see where the NHC suddenly got the idea. Maybe if there was a damaging subtropical storm and people didn't pay attention and weren't prepared since it didn't have a name, then it's understandable. But as far as I know, the decision was spontaneous.


I doubt Simpson, Frank, or even Hope, would have approved.
Quoting nigel20:

Agreed...whats up Baha?
Hey, Nige... brought home some paperwork tonight, so I'm just getting a chance to look in the blog... re. the pic of Caribbean Terrace u posted... we r still having some problems in areas of Grand Bahama which were hit by hurricanes in 2004 and 2005. So I can understand what's happened there.
282 nrtiwlnvragn: Interesting, change from extratropical to Low
[snip]
AL 91 2012041718 BEST 0 351N 573W 40 1003 EX
AL 91 2012041800 BEST 0 339N 585W 35 1004 LO


33.7n49.4w, 34.8n51.1w, 35.1n52.6w, 35.2n54.1w, 35.3n55.6w, 35.1n57.3w, 33.9n58.5w
91L has made the turn southwestward as predicted by BAMD.

MEO is Roanoake,NorthCarolina -- MIA is Miami,Florida -- BDA is Bermuda
Quoting RTSplayer:
This thing actually has a realistic chance to dive southwards by about another 4 or 5 degrees.

This is kinda crazy, since most "extra-tropical" systems tend to just race off to the north or north-east at like 30 to 50mph...


Virtually all of these systems do end up racing off to the north-east sooner or later. They often wander at first, even in a direction closer to land areas, but rarely hit the East Coast of the U.S. or the Caribbean.
Quoting PedleyCA:
KoTG
Good to see you back again.
So what was it that happened to
your computer to cause you
such grief the other day?
still having problems more than one web page up causes cpu fan to run high and if load more than 2 different pages locks up computer iam waiting for ther cam tech guy to show up i beleive its some problem with the program that displays the 16 cams on my computer thats about all i can run anything else and lockup happens

be fixed soon
313 hydrus: It is hard for me to imagine a wind gust of 253 mph.

Try roof-surfing on a BugattiVeyron running at top speed.
they are building cams so i watch all the time for activity in the building its main frame is in the basement in a locker room that runs a wire from there up into my unit into my computer to give internet access and viewing abiltity inside my unit over my computer its some type of program error got to wait for tech guy to reboot
that stuff it belongs to the building not me
once they do whatever then i should be able to reload and run all my other stuff with out computer lock up
for some reason there program is using 50 percent of my computers memory before it use to use only 22 percent so something is running or using to much memory and not leaving me enough to run anything or load anything else be here sometime tomorrow they say to check everything
I doubt anyone's still up, but here's my blog update on 91L. For those too lazy to read, I don't think it'll become Alberto.
376 KoritheMan: What wouldn't it do? It's a maritime interest.
378 wxgeek723: By that logic, we should be naming extratropical cyclones as well since they pose just as much of a threat to shipping interests. Plus a lot of those storms are more powerful than disorganized subtropical storms.

The US has been heavily involved in overseas trading since before it was a nation.
Hence the NationalWeatherService was put under the Department of Commerce. The general public gets the spin-off goodies of an agency that was primarily set up to benefit shippers/traders and the Navy (which protects them).

It's usually pushing definitions aside to label an extratropical system as a cyclone.
~1/2 or more of its MaximumSustainedWinds groundspeed is due to the storm's overall movement of travel. Groundspeed winds at the (weak)side opposite where the MSW is found can be zero... or be blowing in the same direction as the MSW. Thus the storm can be thought of as open on one side.
ie An extratropical system usually shares more similarities to a front or a wave than to a cyclone.
Quoting KoritheMan:


It gets the public to pay attention, doesn't it?


Sounds more like a cry of wolf to me. Which, if done too many times causes people to ignore truly dangerous situations as "just another cry of wolf."

To name this thing and expect people to pay attention the next time is bad communication.
But it's not the boy crying "wolf" for sailors, shippers, traders, and their insurers (or their reinsurers).
91L is a wolf that could turn into a viscious adversary.
Quoting aspectre:
But it's not the boy crying "wolf" for sailors, shippers, traders, and their insurers (or their reinsurers).
91L is a wolf that could turn into a viscious adversary.


Those people already know what is going on. They aren't stupid. To give a name to this storm is to impress those of us sitting at home; those of us that you want to tell that this is another overly impressive season. In this case, the intent is to show us that all hurricane seasons are above average...The Lake Wobegone of forcasting

Those sailors and companies use private weather services and do not wait for the NWS, NHC or NOAA to tell them about bad weather.
Quoting SWFLgazer:


Those people already know what is going on. They aren't stupid. To give a name to this storm is to impress those of us sitting at home; those of us that you want to tell that this is another overly impressive season.


The NHC is a governmental agency charged with public safety. They wouldn't do something as ridiculous as what you're suggesting.
399 SWFLgazer Those people already know what is going on. They aren't stupid. To give a name to this storm is to impress those of us sitting at home; those of us that you want to tell that this is another overly impressive season.

Apparently you believe that the NHC/etc exists to provide entertainment to the masses.
I hope that you don't find out otherwise on a personal basis.
Quoting KoritheMan:


The NHC is a governmental agency charged with public safety. They wouldn't do something as ridiculous as what you're suggesting.


You might. You are the one who is saying that this storm should be named.
Quoting aspectre:
399 SWFLgazer Those people already know what is going on. They aren't stupid. To give a name to this storm is to impress those of us sitting at home; those of us that you want to tell that this is another overly impressive season.

Apparently you believe that the NHC/etc exists to provide entertainment to the masses.
I hope that you don't find out otherwise on a personal basis.


I'm not suggesting that the NHC/etc is here to provide entertainment. It is here to provide information that could affect our well being. How is naming this storm going to warn me or anybody else of impending doom?
Quoting KoritheMan:
I doubt anyone's still up, but here's my blog update on 91L. For those too lazy to read, I don't think it'll become Alberto.


I apologize for saying that you thought it would become a named storm.
404 SWFLgazer: the NHC/etc...is here to provide information that could affect our well being. How is naming this storm going to warn me or anybody else of impending doom?

That's like a Coloradan asking, "How is naming a hurricane gonna warn me or anybody else of impending doom?"
Just because they don't live in your neighborhood doesn't make sailors/etc less deserving.
Quoting aspectre:
That's like a Coloradan asking, "How is naming a hurricane gonna warn me or anybody else of impending doom?"
Just because they don't live in your neighborhood doesn't make sailors/etc less deserving.


They aren't telling the sailors or anyone else affected what they haven't known for days. A name would be only to impress us coastal living landlubbers, who will in no way be affected. To name this the name of a tropical storm when it it is no way tropical serves only to make those of us who might be listening to ignore the next cry of wolf.
Naming a hurricane doesn't tell anybody what they wouldn't know without that Name.
A Name is just a useful tool for letting everybody else know what you're talking about upfront... insteada them having to deduce what your talking about from clues gleaned from within your report.
Quoting aspectre:
Naming a hurricane doesn't tell anybody what they wouldn't know without that naming.
A name is just a useful tool for letting everybody else know what you're talking about upfront... insteada them having to deduce what your talking about from clues gleaned from within your report.


Don't give this storm the name of a tropical storm when this storm is not of tropical origin, does not have tropical characteristics, and never will have. To do so is useful only in inflating the number of named storms at the end of the season.
No sense crying over milk that hasn't been spilt.
It hasn't been Named yet, and probably won't be.
Quoting aspectre:
No sense crying over milk that hasn't been spilt.
It hasn't been Named yet, and probably won't be.
...and there should never have consideration of naming it.
The SPC has highlighted a day 4 severe threat for this weekend:

Flordia? Really

" DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 AM CDT WED APR 18 2012

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE GULF STATES THIS WEEKEND. AS
THE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS TX IT APPEARS SUBSTANTIAL FORCING WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WRN GULF BASIN EARLY IN THE DAY4 PERIOD AND A SQUALL
LINE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INSIST THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN GULF BY 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING WITH SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE FL
PENINSULA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DAY4. WITH 50-70 KT OF MID
LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO BE COLOCATED WITH THE WIND SHIFT IT WOULD
SEEM LIKELY THAT AN ORGANIZED MCS/SQUALL LINE COULD ADVANCE ACROSS
THE REGION
."


So, nothing monstrous--but something to watch, anyway.
Quoting Neapolitan:
The SPC has highlighted a day 4 severe threat for this weekend:

Flordia? Really

" DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 AM CDT WED APR 18 2012

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE GULF STATES THIS WEEKEND. AS
THE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS TX IT APPEARS SUBSTANTIAL FORCING WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WRN GULF BASIN EARLY IN THE DAY4 PERIOD AND A SQUALL
LINE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INSIST THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN GULF BY 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING WITH SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE FL
PENINSULA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DAY4.
WITH 50-70 KT OF MID
LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO BE COLOCATED WITH THE WIND SHIFT IT WOULD
SEEM LIKELY THAT AN ORGANIZED MCS/SQUALL LINE COULD ADVANCE ACROSS
THE REGION
."


So, nothing monstrous--but something to watch, anyway.


All you boys and girls in FLA, be careful!
Quoting SWFLgazer:


You might. You are the one who is saying that this storm should be named.


OH yeah!

Cookin the books is something government does well!


Just look at the Drought Monitor!


And recently look at the GSA!


Much of it is exaggeration or cookin the books.

For those who don't know what cookin the books means=
It's padding the statistics to justify the means.
415. MahFL
I am not sure this low will even be over water this weekend, NWS JAX says it will track over S GA.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
552 AM EDT WED APR 18 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-182200 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
552 AM EDT WED APR 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD LEVY COUNTY LATER
THIS MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE REST OF
THE REGION TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND LOCAL BAY AND SEA
BREEZES.

NONE OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SATURDAY
MORNING THEN MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD NORTH FLORIDA OR SOUTHERN
GEORGIA ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW
CENTER AND SWEEP ACROSS FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND.

WHILE THIS EVENT IS STILL 3 TO 4 DAYS OUT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS TO OUR
REGION INCLUDING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS
BOATING CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE AT TIMES. STRONG
RIP CURRENTS WILL DEVELOP BY SATURDAY WITH HAZARDOUS SURF LIKELY
BY SUNDAY. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
OF HIGH TIDE. ALL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

JILLSON
Quoting LargoFl:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
552 AM EDT WED APR 18 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-0 65-182200 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
552 AM EDT WED APR 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD LEVY COUNTY LATER
THIS MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE REST OF
THE REGION TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND LOCAL BAY AND SEA
BREEZES.

NONE OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SATURDAY
MORNING THEN MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD NORTH FLORIDA OR SOUTHERN
GEORGIA ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW
CENTER AND SWEEP ACROSS FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND.

WHILE THIS EVENT IS STILL 3 TO 4 DAYS OUT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS TO OUR
REGION INCLUDING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS
BOATING CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE AT TIMES. STRONG
RIP CURRENTS WILL DEVELOP BY SATURDAY WITH HAZARDOUS SURF LIKELY
BY SUNDAY. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
OF HIGH TIDE. ALL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

JILLSON


Thanks Buddy!
There have been 59 confirmed tornadoes with this past weekend's tornado outbreak, and the Storm Prediction Center estimates the total will be around 75 when all survey's are complete.
Quoting MahFL:
I am not sure this low will even be over water this weekend, NWS JAX says it will track over S GA.


The Euro are 06Z GFS are all in the Gulf now and moving across N FL. I will say though the 06Z GFS is showing a weaker system.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
There have been 59 confirmed tornadoes with this past weekend's tornado outbreak, and the Storm Prediction Center estimates the total will be around 75 when all survey's are complete.


Right at my total from Saturday! That was exactly my guess even before the event started.
Preliminary Extended

Excerpt:

WEATHER-WISE...THE GULF COAST CYCLONE SHOULD BRING A CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
EASTERN SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SIGNIFICANT/DROUGHT-RELIEVING
RAINS THROUGH THE EAST WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 6-10 INCHES POSSIBLE.
SNOWS APPEAR MOST LIKELY ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA/PENNSYLVANIA/NEW
YORK WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST IF THE DEEPER ECMWF VERIFIES.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Preliminary Extended

Excerpt:

WEATHER-WISE...THE GULF COAST CYCLONE SHOULD BRING A CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
EASTERN SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SIGNIFICANT/DROUGHT-RELIEVING
RAINS THROUGH THE EAST WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 6-10 INCHES POSSIBLE.
SNOWS APPEAR MOST LIKELY ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA/PENNSYLVANIA/NEW
YORK WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST IF THE DEEPER ECMWF VERIFIES.


SNOW! Frank Strait from Accuweather thinks snow may sneak down into the Southern Appl's. Pretty amazing. I will say though I don't see the cold for rain to trasition to snow but I guess the stronger system will have more pull on the cold further north.
Miami NWS Discussion

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)
THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE STATES CHARACTERIZED
WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OUT WEST AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE SRN PLAIN STATES TO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY CLOSING OFF INTO AN UPPER
LOW. CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE FROM THIS POINT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS
BECOME INTRODUCED. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATE A
SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO THIS UPPER FEATURE
TRANSLATING EAST ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO LAG INDICATING A SLOWER
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

PROVIDED THE MODEL DIFFERENCES MENTIONED CONFIDENCE IS NOT
EXACTLY HIGH FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST. AS A RESULT...WILL REMAIN
PERSISTENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND ONLY SLIGHTLY
INCREASE THE RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DUE TO THESE
TIMING DIFFERENCES AND THE LOW CONFIDENCE...INTERESTS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO STAY ABREAST OF LATER FORECASTS AS MODIFICATIONS
WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE UPCOMING FEW DAYS AS THE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
Kinda sad when you have a cold front, and yet it's still a hotter than average past 7 days for the nation.
It's been 6 months since the HPC has had the SE US cover in 2" to 4" rains over 5 days. Also these totals across FL are our monthly averages for APRIL.

455 AM EDT WED APR 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING COLLISION OF THE EAST AND WEST
COAST SEA BREEZES WEST OF SANFORD AND ORLANDO WILL PROVIDE THE
LIFTING MECHANISM FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS TO DEVELOP. ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL EXTENT WILL BE ABLE TO
TAP INTO A DRIER AND COOLER AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...SMALL HAIL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.
Quoting RTSplayer:
Kinda sad when you have a cold front, and yet it's still a hotter than average past 7 days for the nation.


Yeah, let's all have a group cry about the great temps we have had this spring.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:




What is the problem with not naming? Not enough convection?
Well, ain't that interesting. 91L never happened... despite several GMT times within 4/17/2012 and 4/18/2012 being listed there yesterday and earlier this morning.
Current Conditions care of University of Miami
Quoting aspectre:
Well, ain't that interesting. 91L never happened despite several times within 4/17/2012 and 4/18/2012 being listed there yesterday and earlier this morning.


Link
Has anyone estimated all the extra water the excessive temperatures evaporated?
I'll join the snarky comments about the great temperatures once our rainfall deficit is gone and the fires get put out.

Hopefully that will begin later today.
437. MahFL
Quoting LargoFl:
ALL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

JILLSON


Not many tourists read the NWS forcast discussion lol.
Quoting Jedkins01:



But because of the way tornado winds behave, is there more force overall being applied across a surface than with straight line winds? That is what I am not sure about, I guess having the type of mind that I have I want to know the details, and turning twisting component just doesn't cut it for me, I want to know why the turning/twisting component of tornado winds leads to more destruction. Granted, you must take into account the concentrated debris field in the vortex that acts like missiles of various shape and mass that also does damage, but I would think that's not the only reason for additional destruction.

For example, lets say you have a a given wind at 150 mph flowing into a tornado, as that wind is flowing in, wouldn't the force of wind be applied across a greater surface area than with straight line winds because of the behavior of the vector field? I'm having a hard time expressing this still, textually, I could probably express it better graphically on paper.



Or I could just wait till I take some in depth MET courses on this type of material :)


My observation from watching tornado videos, is that it seems to be that the most damage is done as a tornado is just passing associated with the inflow winds. Maybe its just that wind speed is stronger there, I'm not sure, but I have noticed that frequently.


Someone correct me if I'm off base- the twisting motion of tornado winds cause destruction in the vertical plane, straight line winds from a hurricane in the horizontal. It's the lifting action from the twist that makes it more destructive. A straight line, horizontal wind may blow debris against the side of your home and cause damage, but the lift into the tornado vortex will pick up your home off its foundation and drop it. Think also of a tree- a hurricane wind may bend the tree to the ground and cause it to snap in a weak spot, but a twisting, lifting wind may pull it up out of the ground and turn it into a missile.

I think it also has to do with the depth of the wind field- the lifting action will "pull" the wind energy higher in the atmosphere in a tornado, from the ground up. A straight line wind will be strongest along a more shallow area, and only at a certain altitude.

College was a long time ago- hope I have that correct :)
439. MahFL
but a twisting, lifting wind may pull it up out of the ground and turn it into a missile.


It depends if your talking Cat1 or Cat5 or EF0 or EF5.
Either 5 can make a tree into a missile.
435 nrtiwlnvragn Link

Thanks! I thought I'd leveled down from your ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf , didn't find what I wanted, then leveled back up. And didn't notice the address change to ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf
Admittedly more likely, I started off with the wrong address and didn't notice.
Quoting weatherh98:


What is the problem with not naming? Not enough convection?


Whilst having a well organised circulation, it isn't warm-cored, it's cold-cored. One 'measurement' of this is the amount and depth of the convection, yes.
444. wxmod
Here's a satellite photo of Bejing, China today...and below it is a picture of Bejing's exhaust pipe. Everything you breath in the Pacific NW was in China 3 days ago.



aint no telling..

From the HPC discussion

EVENTUALLY ALL OF THIS ENERGY WILL
REACH THE GREAT PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH IS FORECAST TO CARVE
OUT AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS ON A DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ACCOMPANIED POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.


RUBIN-OSTER
Quoting SWFLgazer:


Those people already know what is going on. They aren't stupid. To give a name to this storm is to impress those of us sitting at home; those of us that you want to tell that this is another overly impressive season. In this case, the intent is to show us that all hurricane seasons are above average...The Lake Wobegone of forcasting

Those sailors and companies use private weather services and do not wait for the NWS, NHC or NOAA to tell them about bad weather.




Geeze why are you even going to post in a blog about weather science if you're going to say things like that. So you're telling me the meteorologists at the NHC, NOAA and the NWS are out to cry wolf and have an agenda to convince people that seasons are above average?


And no sorry, sailors and companies don't rely on private weather services for warnings and watches. Only the NWS/NHC/SPC does that, and thank GOD that's true. Imagine if we actually had private weather sources giving us warnings, like Accuweather or Crown weather, what a disaster that would be.


You see my friend, it works the other way around, you have it all backwards. The people at the NWS, NHC and NOAA are not out to prove any agenda, there is no incentive for crying wolf when you work there. Their jobs are strictly to inform people of weather and their potential hazards/dangers to help save lives and make everyone more safe. If you happen to be someone who does love hype and crying wolf, you are not welcome to work at any of those places.



However the same can't be said for private sources, I'm not saying there aren't private meteorologists who don't give good and honest coverage without hyping things to gain ratings. We have a few local meteorologists for example, whom I would consider very credible and don't hype weather for ratings.

But in general, when it comes to a private source, its a company, and most of the time the company's primary goal is going to be whatever it takes to make more money. They are typically more concerned with making more money than accuracy. That means hype, and distortions in whichever way they are told that people are currently wanting to hear the most.
442 RitaEvac: Some Himalayan glaciers actually growing, scientists find. Other areas melting.

The most likely reconciliation of the low-resolution GRACE measurements not jibing with the comparatively high-resolution measurements of easier-to-access glaciers is that:
Warming keeps some moisture from dropping on lower elevation mountains, then that extra some still in the air is carried to and drops on the higher elevation mountains.
the models are all over the place in where this low will track this weekend for the southeast..Texas and LA look to get some action..but if this was to track more inland over the southeast???.look at those numbers..it will be a wait and see scenario

Quoting goosegirl1:


Someone correct me if I'm off base- the twisting motion of tornado winds cause destruction in the vertical plane, straight line winds from a hurricane in the horizontal. It's the lifting action from the twist that makes it more destructive. A straight line, horizontal wind may blow debris against the side of your home and cause damage, but the lift into the tornado vortex will pick up your home off its foundation and drop it. Think also of a tree- a hurricane wind may bend the tree to the ground and cause it to snap in a weak spot, but a twisting, lifting wind may pull it up out of the ground and turn it into a missile.

I think it also has to do with the depth of the wind field- the lifting action will "pull" the wind energy higher in the atmosphere in a tornado, from the ground up. A straight line wind will be strongest along a more shallow area, and only at a certain altitude.

College was a long time ago- hope I have that correct :)



I think you described this pretty well, the only thing I might add is that tornado winds wouldn't still be exempt from the horizontal plane. When we think of wind in the real world, wind can be expressed as a vector field. Well wind in the real world also encompasses a region in all 3 dimensions. That being said, wind can be expressed as a 3 dimensional vector field, in terms of the X,Y, and Z planes. Because of that, tornado winds would still be causing damage in the horizontal plain, however I think what could then be said is that tornado winds do much more damage in the vertical plane then straight line winds, which can make a huge difference in results.
You did very well actually!
33.7n49.4w, 34.8n51.1w, 35.1n52.6w, 35.2n54.1w, 35.3n55.6w, 35.1n57.3w, 33.9n58.5w, 32.7n59.2w
91L has made the turn SouthSouthWestward as predicted by BAMM.

MEO is Roanoake,NorthCarolina -- MIA is Miami,Florida -- BDA is Bermuda
NEW BLOG
Quoting DoctorDave1:


Yeah, let's all have a group cry about the great temps we have had this spring.


I figure the group cry will be in 3 or 4 decades.


I know, I know, it's hard for most to give a hoot about what happens to their children or grand-children; live for the moment and such.
Quoting aspectre:
442 RitaEvac: Some Himalayan glaciers actually growing, scientists find. Other areas melting.

The most likely reconciliation of the low-resolution GRACE measurements not jibing with the comparatively high-resolution measurements of easier-to-access glaciers is that:
Warming keeps some moisture from dropping on lower elevation mountains, then that extra some still in the air is carried to and drops on the higher elevation mountains.


Exactly.

I tried explaining that to people, but they don't listen.

It's perfectly expected, when you think about the fact that high mountains also rise above much of the lower troposphere, greatly reducing the Greenhouse Effect on their summits.

The translation is that a certain portion of the excess heat transports more water to the summit, where it freezes out. However, this does not remotely offset the net losses elsewhere in the region or on the planet as a whole.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, Nige... brought home some paperwork tonight, so I'm just getting a chance to look in the blog... re. the pic of Caribbean Terrace u posted... we r still having some problems in areas of Grand Bahama which were hit by hurricanes in 2004 and 2005. So I can understand what's happened there.

We were lucky as well as both storms missed the island by 20 to 30 miles...so the worst of both storm didn't impact the island