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Postcards from IHC, Part II: remote pressure measurements

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:39 PM GMT on March 05, 2009

I'm at the 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference (IHC) in St. Petersburg, Florida this week, catching up on the latest hurricane research results and plans. About 150 scientists and administrators from all the major U.S. hurricane research agencies are here, and I'll present a few of the highlights of the conference in my next few posts.

We can make crude measurements of atmospheric wind and temperature using remote sensing instruments mounted on aircraft on satellites, but we currently have no way to take such measurements of pressure. Accurate pressure measurements of the inital state of the atmosphere are key in making accurate computer model forecasts, since it is differences in pressure that drive all winds, as air flows from high pressure to low pressure in an attempt to equalize the pressure. Currently, sea surface air pressure measurements can only be obtained from in-situ observations including buoy, ship and dropsonde measurements, which are expensive and sparse in spatial coverage. Dr. Roland Lawrence of Old Dominion University and Qilong Min of SUNY Albany presented a new technique to make remote pressure measurements, in a talk titled "Flight Test Results of a Differential Microwave Radar for Remote Sensing of Atmospheric Pressure". Scientists at NASA's Langley Research Center have built a prototype instrument that has successfully taken remote pressure measurements on aircraft test flights over the ocean. The instrument can measure surface pressure to an accuracy of 4 mb, and possibly as good as 1 mb, when averaged over a several kilometers of ocean area. While flights tests into a hurricane and real-time assimilation of the data in hurricane forecast models are still probably several years away, this is one technology that has the potential to make a big improvement in hurricane track and intensity forecasts. One potential problem with using the instrument in hurricanes is that since the device is measuring the total amount of oxygen in the air along its beam to derive the air pressure, one also needs to know the amount of water vapor along this beam (since water vapor contains oxygen). This quantity will usually need to be modeled, since we don't have detailed humidity measurements available in hurricanes.

I'll post another postcard from IHC on Friday.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Oh Baby... UNO
thanks doc
That does sound like a practical application that might make a difference.
If they have trouble determining the amount of oxygen, maybe they should try something else like N2. I'll bet were pretty certain now about the concentration of CO2.

Additional on NFL Players Caught Offshore in High Seas
Excellent info on new research. Thanks! By the way - the past few days' posts had the best collection of videos and photos I've seen in a long time - interesting and educational. Thanks to all of you. This blog is good even in the off season in terms of advancing my knowledge of weather. Plus some of you are very funny!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thanks doc


I should have those quotes and models for the remote weather cams today.. or so they said yesterday..

Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site



Current Home weather station data.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number TWO
TROPICAL CYCLONE HAMISH, CAT 1
10:50 PM EST March 5 2009
==============================

At 10:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Hamish, Category One [997 hPa] located at 13.4S 147.0E or 380 kms east of Lockhart River and 415 kms north northeast of Cairns has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The low is reported as moving southwest at 4 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Hamish is expected to continue to move south roughly parallel to the north tropical coast while deepening. Damaging wind gusts are not expected to affect coastal or island communities within 24 hours, however they may develop within 24 to 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Watch
======================
A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal and island communities from Cape Melville to Bowen.

TC Technical Bulletin
=================

Gale Force Winds
--------------
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
------------------
12 HRS: 14.3S 146.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 15.7S 147.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 17.8S 147.9E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 20.5S 149.6E - 60 knots (CAT 2)

Remarks
----
Descending QuikScat pass shows 35 to 40 knot winds in three quadrants. Deep convection wraps 0.60 on log10 spiral. DT is 3.0. MET supports. System is expected to continue to intensify under weak shear.
Hamish

orca:why is the wind always calm on your pws???
looks like its going to be a stormy pattern for the east starting 96 hrs out!!!now how cold will it be????
000
NWUS56 KSTO 050401
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
801 PM PST WED MAR 04 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 AM HEAVY SNOW 17 E KYBURZ 38.77N 119.98W
03/04/2009 M48.0 INCH EL DORADO CA PUBLIC

SIERRA AT TAHOE REPORTED 3-4 FEET OF SNOW OVERNIGHT.

0530 AM HEAVY SNOW KIRKWOOD 38.70N 120.07W
03/04/2009 M48.0 INCH EL DORADO CA PUBLIC

KIRKWOOD REPORTED 43-48 INCHES PAST 24 HOURS AND 53-64
INCHES PAST 48 HOURS AND STORM TOTAL OF 74-86 INCHES.

0622 AM HEAVY SNOW SODA SPRINGS 39.32N 120.38W
03/04/2009 M40.0 INCH NEVADA CA PUBLIC

BOREAL REPORTED 34-40 INCHES OF NEW SNOW PAST 24 HOURS
AND STORM TOTAL 57-64 INCHES.

0715 AM HEAVY SNOW 19 W TRUCKEE 39.33N 120.56W
03/04/2009 M37.0 INCH NEVADA CA PUBLIC

SUGAR BOWL SKI RESORT REPORTED 24 HOUR SNOWFALL OF 25
INCHES AT 6883 FEET AND 37 INCHES AT 8363 FEET AND STORM
TOTALS OF 49 AND 68 INCHES.

0235 PM HAIL COTTONWOOD 40.39N 122.28W
03/04/2009 E0.50 INCH SHASTA CA PUBLIC

GUMBALL SIZE HAIL ON INTERSTATE 5, 1/2 INCH HAIL NOW BUT
GETTING BIGGER
0257 PM HAIL S COTTONWOOD 40.39N 122.28W
03/04/2009 E0.25 INCH SHASTA CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

CHP IS REPORTING 1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES OF HAIL ON THE ROADWAY
COVERING PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 5.
0259 PM HAIL 5 NE WILLOWS 39.57N 122.13W
03/04/2009 E0.88 INCH GLENN CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

THE GLENN COUNTY SHERRIFS REPORTED NICKEL SIZE HAIL IN
FRUTO.

0500 PM HAIL 8 SSW ORLAND 39.65N 122.27W
03/04/2009 E0.75 INCH GLENN CA TRAINED SPOTTER

0.57 INCHES OF RAIN IN ARTOIS PAST HOUR, HAIL COVERED
ROADS, TO THE SW GRAIN FIELD FLATTENED BY AT LEAST PENNY
SIZE HAIL ABOUT 4 PM, HILLS ARE WHITE WITH HAIL

0515 PM HAIL 10 SW ORLAND 39.64N 122.32W
03/04/2009 E0.50 INCH GLENN CA PUBLIC

PERSON FROM COUNTY DUMP ON WEST SIDE OF TOWN HAD 3 INCHES
OF HAIL ON GROUND, SOME PEAS AND SOME DIME SIZE. HAILED
FOR AN HOUR, LESSENING UP NOW, NOW ON EAST SIDE OF TOWN
AND ONLY RAINING


0530 PM HAIL 1 SW ARBUCKLE 39.64N 122.32W
03/04/2009 E0.75 INCH GLENN CA TRAINED SPOTTER

LOTS OF PENNY SIZE HAIL UNDER CELL NEAR ARTOIS, SPOTTER
SAW ROTATION IN BANDING AND STRIATIONS BUT NO FUNNEL
CLOUDS SEEN
0540 PM HAIL ANDERSON 40.45N 122.29W
03/04/2009 E0.25 INCH SHASTA CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

PEA SIZE HAIL ALONG INTERSTATE 5


Quoting Orcasystems:


I should have those quotes and models for the remote weather cams today.. or so they said yesterday..

Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site



Current Home weather station data.


Mr. Orca, ensure they provide an acceptable field of view with the Cams and stay away from plastic ( acrylic ) lenses. They yellow over time. Glass is the only way to go. You would do well with a zoom capable lens. The lesser and older wireless units don't use 900 mhz or better technology.
Thanks Dr. Masters...
Sounds interesting.
Hope you enjoy the conference, Doc. We look forward to your report and comments.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number TWO
TROPICAL CYCLONE HAMISH, CAT 1
10:50 PM EST March 5 2009
==============================

At 10:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Hamish, Category One [997 hPa] located at 13.4S 147.0E or 380 kms east of Lockhart River and 415 kms north northeast of Cairns has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The low is reported as moving southwest at 4 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Hamish is expected to continue to move south roughly parallel to the north tropical coast while deepening. Damaging wind gusts are not expected to affect coastal or island communities within 24 hours, however they may develop within 24 to 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Watch
======================
A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal and island communities from Cape Melville to Bowen.

TC Technical Bulletin
=================

Gale Force Winds
--------------
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
------------------
12 HRS: 14.3S 146.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 15.7S 147.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 17.8S 147.9E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 20.5S 149.6E - 60 knots (CAT 2)

Remarks
----
Descending QuikScat pass shows 35 to 40 knot winds in three quadrants. Deep convection wraps 0.60 on log10 spiral. DT is 3.0. MET supports. System is expected to continue to intensify under weak shear.
That was fast. They weren't expecting anything organized from this for another 12-24 . ..
12 HRS: 14.3S 146.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 15.7S 147.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 17.8S 147.9E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 20.5S 149.6E - 60 knots (CAT 2)


how can 60kt winds be a cat 2???

AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite
Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano testifies before the House Homeland Security Committee on Feb. 25. She will travel to New Orleans today with HUD secretary Shaun Donovan and FEMA chief Craig Fugate.


Obama cabinet members, new FEMA chief to visit New Orleans today 7:15 AM


Trip the first for Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano and HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan
Link

Two members of President Barack Obama's cabinet are visiting New Orleans and other parts of the Gulf Coast starting today to assess the region's recovery from Hurricane Katrina.

Thursday and Friday's visit by Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano and Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan is their first to the region since Obama was sworn into office.

Craig Fugate, the newly nominated head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, also is expected to join them in New Orleans on Thursday.

The officials, scheduled to take a bus tour today, are expected to make their first stop at Southern University of New Orleans, where all 11 buildings were devastated by Katrina. The university currently operates out of the upper floors of a few of those buildings.

They will then travel to Chalmette to see the 200th home restored by the non-profit St. Bernard Project, nationally lauded for helping hundreds of families get back in their homes.

Their final stop will be at Abundance Square, a redeveloped portion of the Desire public housing complex, which was wiped out by the storm. Donovan is the third HUD secretary to visit Abundance Square, one of the few bright spots of HANO's post-Katrina inventory.

On Friday, Napolitano is scheduled to take a helicopter tour of Mississippi's Gulf Coast.
Thanks, Doc.

I assume the MODIS profiles (clear-sky only) are not useful around a hurricane?

(Yes I know they do not give pressure, but do give total column water vapor and moisture profiles)

"Key Geophysical Parameters: Total-column ozone, atmospheric stability (Total Totals, Lifted Index, and K index), atmospheric profiles of temperature and moisture, atmospheric total-column water vapor "
http://modis-atmos.gsfc.nasa.gov/MOD07_L2/index.html
Concerning this blog entry, I fully appreciate the advancement in sensor technologies in regards to hurricane measurement requirements in association with forecast modeling.

However, to fully understand what is happening in a hurricane as it develops and moves over open water towards a possible landfall, I propose a solution that will not only provide all the data necessary for future forecast models, but will also provide tropical storm enthusiasts with a non-stop television experience.

Two diesel powered submarines would work within Atlantic storm systems. One sub would station itself in the CoC and the other within the forming eyewall.

The eyewall sub would be equipped with a "launching platform" that would release these mylar balloons Dr. Masters mentioned yesterday. The eyewall sub would also conduct every measurement test yet devised, while at the same time...broadcasting images of the violent seas using high-intensity lights focused on small craft in-tow to provide scale.

The CoC sub would receive broadcasts from the eyewall sub and transmit video / data from both subs via a tethered, high-altitude balloon / satellite link-up.

WeatherUnderground could actually sponsor the transmissions and provide viewers the opportunity to buy a subscription to the service on cable / satellite systems.

When the storm moves ashore, the subs simply submerge and head towards either another building storm or to a location that would be condusive to storm formation.

So there it is...two underwater craft, specially outfitted, with a crew of operators and technicians and we'll have data and imagery coming out of the whazoo to help model forecasting move ahead.

CycloneOz
orca iam having a hard time tryin to fine what iam looking for and it seems to be a lot of choices out there want to make right choice alot of them are rated to only -10c i can get down to -25 or -30 in rare cases
To CylconeOz:

Estimated cost to build such a vessel or convert it from existing craft?
Interesting concept, btw, Oz.

I also thought about travel through CAR and Bahamian waters, which could become challenging due to intervening islands and shallow coral reefs.
20.

I'm just the idea guy. I'll talk to my accountant later today. :)

How much is a used diesel sub? How much to refit it? How much to modify it? How much to staff it and equip it? How much to operate it?

It's gotta be way less than the damage done by an extreme storm, right?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
orca iam having a hard time tryin to fine what iam looking for and it seems to be a lot of choices out there want to make right choice alot of them are rated to only -10c i can get down to -25 or -30 in rare cases


Most manufacturers have options for heating and cooling kits for exterior cams. Usually, the biggest problem is cooking in the sun and frying the boards in particular with a sealed housing. .
Quoting CycloneOz:
20.

I'm just the idea guy. I'll talk to my accountant later today. :)

How much is a used diesel sub? How much to refit it? How much to modify it? How much to staff it and equip it? How much to operate it?

It's gotta be way less than the damage done by an extreme storm, right?
Certainly in cost to human life, I'd say. Hopefully the accountant will come along soon. . .

Also, I wonder what Caribbean / Central American states consider as ways to contribute to costs of storm forecasting. I understand the need to centralize the process, but how do other member states participate / share the load?
keeper: no minus degrees celcius EVER down here in Sarasota....lol..***goes back into corner and faces wall***
24.

Now your talking politics. I HATE politics. I say, let the viewers pay! $100 per storm for 7-8 days of interesting, sometimes riveting video is a bargain!

$100 X 50,000 people = $5 mil

5 mil X 4 storms = $20 mil
Quoting Ossqss:


Most manufacturers have options for heating and cooling kits for exterior cams. Usually, the biggest problem is cooking in the sun and frying the boards in particular with a sealed housing. .
heat is another issue as well i was speaking to one company told me they could built me what i was lookin for
for 1500 dollars i asked him if he was pointing a gun at me because if your going to rob me i want it to look like the real thing mine you i said ya i will keep looking
I have always thought that more bouys would help the cause. Perhaps modified units that could do the job with sensory projectiles launched up and into the approaching storms, kinda like the reverse of the dropping them from planes. Perhaps even upwards facing radar for real time readings. The coast guard could reload them accordingly. It always seemed like we needed more anyhow. Just my take.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
heat is another issue as well i was speaking to one company told me they could built me what i was lookin for
for 1500 dollars i asked him if he was pointing a gun at me because if your going to rob me i want it to look like the real thing mine you i said ya i will keep looking


Don't over look the wireless Sony unit I sent you the link on. $500 on ebay and should be capable of the upgrades you may need. It was wireless with at PTZ and an excellent 30x zoom with a high end, high res chip set. The demo link was on the site to enable you to actually take control of the camera over the net.
Quoting Tazmanian:
12 HRS: 14.3S 146.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 15.7S 147.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 17.8S 147.9E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 20.5S 149.6E - 60 knots (CAT 2)


how can 60kt winds be a cat 2???


The Western Pacific system is different from that of the Saffir-Simpson scale we're so accustommed to.
Link

Check it out and compare this to the others. It references -- Temp controlled.
Quoting cchsweatherman:


The Western Pacific system is different from that of the Saffir-Simpson scale we're so accustommed to.


Are you saying they have bigger Knots than us? J/K
Quoting Ossqss:
I have always thought that more bouys would help the cause. Perhaps modified units that could do the job with sensory projectiles launched up and into the approaching storms, kinda like the reverse of the dropping them from planes. Perhaps even upwards facing radar for real time readings. The coast guard could reload them accordingly. It always seemed like we needed more anyhow. Just my take.


I agree, more buoys.

Do you realize that we have no buoy that measures waves along the east coast of Florida south of Cape Canaveral? 0 buoys around the Bahamas?

Just how much boat traffic would it take to make that worth it?
I have always thought that more bouys would help the cause

more girls, less bouys....
I shall no longer take offense to being called chicken-$#!t...Fowl soil additive breaks down crude oil
It would appear that you have limited experience in submarines and other ocean going vessels. A sub would have to be so deep under the eyewall as to be of no use. To be shallow enough to do what you suggest would be no different that being in a surface vessel which, I am sure, no one wants to volunteer for.

Quoting CycloneOz:
20.

I'm just the idea guy. I'll talk to my accountant later today. :)

How much is a used diesel sub? How much to refit it? How much to modify it? How much to staff it and equip it? How much to operate it?

It's gotta be way less than the damage done by an extreme storm, right?
Quoting SQUAWK:
It would appear that you have limited experience in submarines and other ocean going vessels. A sub would have to be so deep under the eyewall as to be of no use. To be shallow enough to do what you suggest would be no different that being in a surface vessel which, I am sure, no one wants to volunteer for.



And how deep is "so deep?" I'll be very surprised if you can respond because to my knowledge, there exists 0 data on sub-surface turbulence caused during hurricanes. But we'll see...maybe you know something I do not. When responding...please reference your source.
60 feet or more, usually around 150 feet for real comfort. Source = 26 years of Naval service doing things you can't even imagine.
Quoting CycloneOz:


And how deep is "so deep?" I'll be very surprised if you can respond because to my knowledge, there exists 0 data on sub-surface turbulence caused during hurricanes. But we'll see...maybe you know something I do not. When responding...please reference your source.


Her ya go. Wave dynamics have been around for some time. Link
38.

Not discounting your naval service experience on subs or the information in your provided link, but can you see no way for a sub to do the work in an eyewall environment?

I cannot believe, in all these years of operating submarines, that one has never surfaced in 20-30 foot seas and not been able to carry on operations.

What about a "boom extension" that would operate like a periscope, but only much higher. Using that boom extension, all the environmental tests, video / audio acquisition and transmission could be carried on.

I guess a surface vessel could ride out 7-8 days of eye-wall fury (i.e. The Deadliest Catch), but I think a creatively refitted sub would work better.
Hummmm seems like the server had a hickup.

41. Ossqss 9:29 AM PST on March 05, 2009
Hummmm seems like the server had a hickup


more like acid reflux....too many nachos last night...
Thanks Dr. Masters. With all of the information at our finger tips now, they are still getting more.
Blog hole!
Considering that Hurricanes can produce waves 60' or more, and do not exhibit a traditional wave patter in the eye, kinda like chop if you will, and the upwelling that is presnet in them all. It would not be a place I would be. I would compare it to swimming underwater in your washing machine on the agitation cycle. I get sea sick thinking about it.
Quoting atmoaggie:
I shall no longer take offense to being called chicken-$#!t...Fowl soil additive breaks down crude oil


All they would have to do is somehow get a flock of geese to stay in the area for a few weeks.
Screeeeech to a halt!
Considering that Hurricanes can produce waves 60' or more, and do not exhibit a traditional wave patter in the eye, kinda like chop if you will, and the upwelling that is presnet in them all. It would not be a place I would be. I would compare it to swimming underwater in your washing machine on the agitation cycle. I get sea sick thinking about it.
Quoting Ossqss:
Considering that Hurricanes can produce waves 60' or more, and do not exhibit a traditional wave patter in the eye, kinda like chop if you will, and the upwelling that is presnet in them all. It would not be a place I would be. I would compare it to swimming underwater in your washing machine on the agitation cycle. I get sea sick thinking about it.


Pardon the studddddder
Back to the conversation before we were so rudely interrupted by the blog hole!!!

CycloneOz, Subs and surface vessels have ridden out hurricanes since man first took to the seas. Problem is that it is a very dangerous and uncomfortable business. Subs cruise under hurricanes regularly and have even surfaced to rescue stranded boaters in the eye of one. The problem with the extended boom thing is structural. It would have to be very long to get above the water and the towering waves. Trying to build something that stout would probably make it so large that the energy from the waves beating on it would be transferred back to the sub and would cause havoc with the sub. Also, no balloons needed for the one in the eye, they are quite capable of satcomm without any additional equipnemt.
6622.72-253.12 / -3.68% 2:07pm ET
49. Ossqss
LOL happens to everyone eventually.

___

Just 2 cents on subs. Subs do really well in storms...because they do what they do best...go deep. They aren't really designed for surface operations in heavy seas...not that it couldn't be done...but very few submariners would choose to.

It would be possible to do an instrument package that could be launched while submerged. The cost for one such package however might well be much higher than the cost of all probes normally used by the H Hunters for a given storm. So, while it may be doable...it probably wouldn't be cost effective.

Finally, there are some nations in hurricane alley that wouldn't be too keen on the idea of American subs prowling around in their territorial waters.

I think the future lies with remotely operated or autonomous vehicles. I also think that it is a shame that given all the money we waste of stupid things, that we cant have a better bouy network and better maintenance schedules. There are a whole lot of dead spots out there and there is no reason we can't have bouys with radar, or at the very least bouys that work and more of them.

Don't misunderstand me, I'm not knocking you or your idea...just that there may be better or more cost effective ways to accomplish the same mission. Thank you though, even if your idea doesn't pan out, it stimulates thinking and conversation which in turn leads to solutions.

53. P451
Quoting stillwaiting:
orca:why is the wind always calm on your pws???
looks like its going to be a stormy pattern for the east starting 96 hrs out!!!now how cold will it be????


Looking warm sector for the east right into the north east through the next few systems (Friday/Saturday - and then the March 11th-ish one).

But the following week, March 18-20, models hint at it being colder and thus possibly more snow for the northern mid-atlantic into new england.

A season like this it wouldn't be of any surprise - right into the first 10 days of april - to get snow.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number THREE
TROPICAL CYCLONE HAMISH, CAT 2 (11U)
4:50 AM EST March 6 2009
==============================

At 4:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Hamish, Category Two [988 hPa] located at 13.8S 147.0E or 265 kms northeast of Cooktown and 370 kms north northeast of Cairns has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south-southwest at 4 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Hamish is expected to continue to move south-southwest today, bringing it a little closer to the north tropical coast, while intensifying. Damaging wind gusts may affect coastal and island communities between Cape Melville and Cardwell by this afternoon or evening.

In the longer term the system is expected to adopt a south-southeastwards movement and damaging wind gusts may develop about coastal and island communities between Cardwell and Hayman Island within 24 to 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
======================
A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal and island communities between Cape Melville and Cardwell.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities from Cardwell to Hayman Island.

TC Technical Bulletin
=================

Storm Force Winds
--------------
35 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
---------------
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
------------------
12 HRS: 14.8S 146.7E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 16.0S 147.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 18.5S 148.9E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 20.6S 150.1E - 70 knots (CAT 3)

Remarks
----
Descending QuikScat pass shows 35 to 40 knot winds in three quadrants. Deep convection wraps 0.65 on log10 spiral. DT is 3.5 with addition of 0.5 for a white band. MET supports. System is expected to continue to intensify under weak shear.
53. P451
The 12 hours of Sebring Race is March 21st. It seems like historically there is about a 70 percent chance of being cold, or wet or both on race weekend...Wouldn't be at all surprised to see FL get some weather action then. LOL
Gee guys. I'm starting to wonder is it worth it to refine it down to 4 or 1 mb.
Models are increasingly accurate. Info is networked worldwide to those who will listen. Old school methods worked pretty darn good last year.
Do we really care if the wind is blowing 137mph versus 133mph. 20ft storm surge versus 22ft storm surge? It's a hurricane. Get out of the way. It still can change at the last minute.
I'd rather see the money spent elsewhere. IMO
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
TROPICAL LOW, EX-GABRIELLE (10U)
3:50 AM WDT March 6 2009
==============================

At 3:00 AM WDT, Tropical Low, Ex-Gabrielle [1005 hPa] located at 21.0S 95.9E.

No further warnings will be issued for this system
Quoting theshepherd:
Gee guys. I'm starting to wonder is it worth it to refine it down to 4 or 1 mb.
Models are increasingly accurate. Info is networked worldwide to those who will listen. Old school methods worked pretty darn good last year.
Do we really care if the wind is blowing 137mph versus 133mph. 20ft storm surge versus 22ft storm surge? It's a hurricane. Get out of the way. It still can change at the last minute.
I'd rather see the money spent elsewhere. IMO


With the increasing incidents of rapid intensification,( wich nobody could predict with much accuracy) specifis on the outer winds just does not seem too important. I still am amazed at the Wilma 83 mb in 12 hr item that was discussed a few days ago.
In such seas the entire focus of the captain and crew would be on surviving long enough to get the hell outta there...nobody's going to be doing any science in those conditions....
Presslord, was it you or Patrap that posted about mini swirls, can't remember?
59. presslord

Well...If you want to put it bluntly! LOL

Yeah, the real world ain't much like Hollywood.
musta been Pat....mini swirls sounds like an hors d'ouvre to me.....
Thanks.. Wanted to send him an email on some stuff we experienced in Charley. Mini Swirl related.. A what?

Quoting presslord:
musta been Pat....mini swirls sounds like an hors d'ouvre to me.....
Quoting presslord:
musta been Pat....mini swirls sounds like an hors d'ouvre to me.....


One of my favorites
Quoting charlottefl:
Thanks.. Wanted to send him an email on some stuff we experienced in Charley. Mini Swirl related.. A what?



finger food
Oss...very nice...
ROFL!!!

Quoting Ossqss:


One of my favorites
Got my weather Station running back in August. Figured out how to keep it running and uploading to WU in case of power loss. As long as ATT stays up that is, so assuming there are any hurricanes that hit or brush us this year, that will be one of my projects. Video/Data recording.
Open Question to all --

Would there be any value to have a Hurricane preparedness helper page? I am not referring to typical kit requirements, but more of the things that many do that others may not be aware of in times of strife. An example being:

I purchased a PTT cell phone ( nextel) specifically because it had off network capabilities. In other words, if the towers went down, I could still talk to my other nextel phones and neighbors via a direct link phone to phone. Just like the family radio's.

Would there be any value for the masses to share and document the little helpers that we may all do as we prepare for hurricane season?

I personally want to be able to access the gas in my cars for the generators, but cannot for them all have anti-syphon devices as mandated by the government. The dealer would not remove them. Thats nearly 50 gallons. If there was a safe way to access it, I would certainly be all over it. Just a thought./
Think it might be helpful to newer WU bloggers, or even ones who haven't experienced a hurricane. Although after recent years there probably aren't too many of those.

Quoting Ossqss:
Open Question to all --

Would there be any value to have a Hurricane preparedness helper page? I am not referring to typical kit requirements, but more of the things that many do that others may not be aware of in times of strife. An example being:

I purchased a PTT cell phone ( nextel) specifically because it had off network capabilities. In other words, if the towers went down, I could still talk to my other nextel phones and neighbors via a direct link phone to phone. Just like the family radio's.

Would there be any value for the masses to share and document the little helpers that we may all do as we prepare for hurricane season?

I personally want to be able to access the gas in my cars for the generators, but cannot for them all have anti-syphon devices as mandated by the government. The dealer would not remove them. Thats nearly 50 gallons. If there was a safe way to access it, I would certainly be all over it. Just a thought./
Quoting charlottefl:
Presslord, was it you or Patrap that posted about mini swirls, can't remember?

That was pat with the video on heat towers...I think.
Another example for you

Most folks knowingly fill their tubs with water as a storm approaches. Most dont know that most tubs will eventually leak all of the water out in a few hours, unless you place a flat rubber sealer disk on them. Typically sold at your local grocer. Learned from personal experience.
maybe adding precautions after the storm also. Almost cut an artery after Charley on a piece of glass, kinda scary...
70. charlottefl
Appreciate the humor, but when you consider the number of new residents in FL alone each year, there are a lot of people who haven't.

69. Ossqss
You could start by writing your legislator and telling them to stop assuming that they are smarter than you are and are better able to make your decisions for you...LOL. One of my cars has a holley electric fuel pump. I keep it filled when there is a storm threat. It is easy for me to undo a fuel line from the carb and pump fuel into a 5 gal can...your own experience and comfort level would determine what would work for you, but you might talk to a good mechanic that you trust for suggestions.
Quoting theshepherd:
Gee guys. I'm starting to wonder is it worth it to refine it down to 4 or 1 mb.
Models are increasingly accurate. Info is networked worldwide to those who will listen. Old school methods worked pretty darn good last year.
Do we really care if the wind is blowing 137mph versus 133mph. 20ft storm surge versus 22ft storm surge? It's a hurricane. Get out of the way. It still can change at the last minute.
I'd rather see the money spent elsewhere. IMO
I think the point of more information is better understanding of the overall dynamics of storm systems which would in turn (we hope) lead to better forecasting thereof. Since short-term changes in wind speed seem to be a greater nemesis than short term direction for forecasters, this kind information could potentially be of value.
76. IKE
DOW
305.93
-4.45%
6,569.91
Quoting charlottefl:
Think it might be helpful to newer WU bloggers, or even ones who haven't experienced a hurricane. Although after recent years there probably aren't too many of those.


Lastr year I collected a list of ideas and suggestions from WU bloggers - not meant as an official hurricane preparedness plan, but things that folks who have been through it found helpful. You can find the list here
O
Quoting Ossqss:
Open Question to all --

Would there be any value to have a Hurricane preparedness helper page? I am not referring to typical kit requirements, but more of the things that many do that others may not be aware of in times of strife. An example being:

I purchased a PTT cell phone ( nextel) specifically because it had off network capabilities. In other words, if the towers went down, I could still talk to my other nextel phones and neighbors via a direct link phone to phone. Just like the family radio's.

Would there be any value for the masses to share and document the little helpers that we may all do as we prepare for hurricane season?

I personally want to be able to access the gas in my cars for the generators, but cannot for them all have anti-syphon devices as mandated by the government. The dealer would not remove them. Thats nearly 50 gallons. If there was a safe way to access it, I would certainly be all over it. Just a thought./


CatastrophicDL put a nice one together:

Link
Looks like the dow is in a nose dive... -316..
Quoting IKE:
DOW
305.93
-4.45%
6,569.91



Urrrg My 001k

Say hello to your new United States National Bank -- CITI is trading at $1 /share and going down. The largest bank in the world.
IKE...Monday I bet a friend $100 we'd see below 6000 by the end of this month.....
LOL. Right around the same time as yours KEH. Sorry, didn't remember yours. Maybe I wasn't on that day. Good info.

Anyway, obviously it was a big topic of discussion at the time.
Quoting KEHCharleston:

Lastr year I collected a list of ideas and suggestions from WU bloggers - not meant as an official hurricane preparedness plan, but things that folks who have been through it found helpful. You can find the list here


Excellent, but the poncho needs to be below the beer on the list. Thanks
77. KEHCharleston

Thanks! One very important thing that many don't consider...something to keep those younguns occupied after the storm when there is no power and no Wii/playstation/xbox/etc. Having the kids out of your hair will go a long ways towards maintaining your sanity.

Gotta go...thanks for the conversation!
Hurricane Preparedness is essential if you live in an area prone to tropical cyclones.I put together a preparedness page a while back which answers all questions from what to do with your pet to evacuation plans.Feel free to use anytime this tropical season. VIEW HERE
Hello everyone.....the DOW is sucking wind today....

Been working on my Web site...Check out my Hurricane Supply ....coming soon...

I have not updated the Analysis nor my blog but, it looks nice i hope....

Link

It mirrors my Weather Underground blog
Also excellent, I like the progession part for building the kits. But SPAM included and no beer is a problem. Thanks. these will be saved into the fav folder.
88. IKE
Quoting presslord:
IKE...Monday I bet a friend $100 we'd see below 6000 by the end of this month.....


You may win that bet, unfortunately.
I like the idea of those supply kits Tampa.
Quoting CycloneOz:


And how deep is "so deep?" I'll be very surprised if you can respond because to my knowledge, there exists 0 data on sub-surface turbulence caused during hurricanes. But we'll see...maybe you know something I do not. When responding...please reference your source.


I can attest from personal experience our boat rocking 15+ degrees at 120 feet in the north Atlantic, we proceeded deep, ran a standard bell for 30 hours and popped back up in better seas. To attempt periscope depth without broaching you would have to get 50 tons heavy so the wave trough would not suck you up.

The old diesel boats had a keel and were not as susceptible to rolling as today's teardrop shaped boats, but they are still frightful. My father once described the Straights of Magellan as the scariest transit he ever made on his Guppy III, the USS Cutlass(1950's). Said they shipped green water over the bridge for two days.. colddd water.

A modern subs shape makes it a terrible surface sailor. The faster you drive it, the lower the bow pushes down. It is truly spectacular to see night in the Caribbean.. the sea life phosphorus's light blue, the foam and spray sparkles and dolphins leave trails. I digress, sorry. At a flank bell (wide open) the water comes up the sail even in calm seas. I dunno what class coat this is but it is more modern than mine.



Because of it's shape it also rocks fearfully in any bad weather and at at anything above 15 degrees or so moving about becomes difficult, so does cooking and sleeping.

While my boat, USS Batfish was still on the ways, I sailed aboard the USS Silversides on her SINS acceptance test. The Ships Initial Navigation System, like all the new parts of an under construction sub has to be feild tested before the Navy will buy it. This test requires you to stay surfaced for three days so you can have constant sattillite position checks (before gps this was)The seas were horrendous.. state 6 to 7 seas the whole time. This would be 18-25+ feet waves.

We rocked 20+ degrees for three days. You could count the non seasick men on one hand, and a dozen were sedated to keep fluids in them. We were all sick and stood our watches with a poly puke bag. We stacked everything we could under the outside edge of our racks lifting them in an attempt to not get dumped on the deck by a bad roll.

Noone really ate. Fluids bread and crackers with little or no sleep for three days kept us very haggard and wanting to pull the plug more than the next breath of air.. almost. (pull the plug=submerge)I think experiments or surface measurements are out of the question in the state 9 seas at the eyewall.

They do have signal ejectors, which was a three inch tube on our boat ( I think, 1972 was a long time ago) this could perhaps be the model size for an ejectable instrument... like a sonotube. I think the expense concerns were for a 19 or 21 inch torpedo sized instrument.

Subs do research all the time, this would not be outside the realm of a test if it were done in conjuction with a transit or other experiment. It's not cheap to task 120 highly trained men and the nuclear powered pipe they cruise around in, so it would have to be part of a package. If you used the signal ejectors you could be eating supper at 200 feet while popping out instruments according to a plan.

Go Navy!

90. indianrivguy 5:09 PM EST on March 05, 2009

Awesome, thanks for the perspective, albeit dinner is just not quite as appealing right now. gurgle
Mini-Swirls and Dr. Fujita's work.

The 'he' and 'him' referred in the video is Professor T.T. Fujita, the inventor of the Fujita Scale of tornado intensity studied the damage patterns of major hurricanes later in his career and theroized that intense wind damage in the eyewalls of hurricanes was atributed to tornado-like invisible vortexes that he called mini-swirls. And that they are only found in really major hurricanes (like high-end cat. 4 and cat. 5 storms). The video seen here are of Supertyphoon Omar in Guam and Hurricane Iniki in Hawaii (both of which were Catagory 4 and in 1992).

Quoting Patrap:
Mini-Swirls and Dr. Fujita's work.

The 'he' and 'him' referred in the video is Professor T.T. Fujita, the inventor of the Fujita Scale of tornado intensity studied the damage patterns of major hurricanes later in his career and theroized that intense wind damage in the eyewalls of hurricanes was atributed to tornado-like invisible vortexes that he called mini-swirls. And that they are only found in really major hurricanes (like high-end cat. 4 and cat. 5 storms). The video seen here are of Supertyphoon Omar in Guam and Hurricane Iniki in Hawaii (both of which were Catagory 4 and in 1992).


Are these guys talking about mesovorticies?

Isabel (sorry Teddy, if you are here.)
Quoting IKE:
DOW
305.93
-4.45%
6,569.91


Thank God Bush is out of office or it'd be somewhere in the teens now.
Exactly. Small areas of super enhanced rotating wind within the eyewall of an intense hurricane. (Mini Tornadoes you might call em) The reason why in a really intense hurricane you see two houses destroyed, and one in the middle fairly unharmed.

Quoting atmoaggie:


Are these guys talking about mesovorticies?

Isabel (sorry Teddy, if you are here.)
Before Charley this was parked 100ft in front of this building. Now can straight line wind pick up a several thousand pound U haul and throw it 100ft or more? No way! Btw... the other one parked out front ended up in the neighborhood behind this store!

Photobucket
This was about a 1/2 mile from my location during the hurricane.
Quoting rainmound:


Thank God Bush is out of office or it'd be somewhere in the teens now.


Actually, our troubles started in the 90's with the CRA -- community reinvestment act-- and was perpetuated in 2005 by our legislators who refused to pull in the reigns on Fanny and Freddy and here we are.
Quoting charlottefl:
This was about a 1/2 mile from my location during the hurricane.


I bet Charley was a blast...
Did I mention Charley was my first hurricane? Yeah...

Quoting SevereHurricane:


I bet Charley was a blast...
Quoting charlottefl:
Did I mention Charley was my first hurricane? Yeah...



What a way to experience your first cane.
Quoting hahaguy:


What a way to experience your first cane.


60 miles from the center here and just go a small drizzle of rain and no wind.
Charley was very intense, but super compact... Radius of maximum winds was only 6 miles. Just thinking about that now what are your odds of being right in the center of that? Figures..lol..

Quoting Ossqss:


60 miles from the center here and just go a small drizzle of rain and no wind.
Quoting charlottefl:
Charley was very intense, but super compact... Radius of maximum winds was only 6 miles. Just thinking about that now what are your odds of being right in the center of that? Figures..lol..



I was down there the next day helping out some friends. What a mess and I was in the Murdock area near the water. The good side of the storm if you will.
Yeah.. you could say that, I was much closer to Punta Gorda. We were in a large hospital and it pretty much destroyed it.

Quoting Ossqss:


I was down there the next day helping out some friends. What a mess and I was in the Murdock area near the water. The good side of the storm if you will.
Quoting rainmound:


Thank God Bush is out of office or it'd be somewhere in the teens now.


now, i am no anaylist, but doesnt spending 800 billion dollars usually cause fear in the stock market?
Quoting Stlouiskid:


now, i am no anaylist, but doesnt spending 800 billion dollars usually cause fear in the stock market?


A bit, I think the 3.6 Trillion was part of the issue also.
Quoting charlottefl:
Charley was very intense, but super compact... Radius of maximum winds was only 6 miles. Just thinking about that now what are your odds of being right in the center of that? Figures..lol..



So it basicly it was a rain wrapped 6 mile wide F-2 Tornado.
Something like that ;) I just posted this video. Couldn't figure out how to just copy it. Oh well.. Had a lot of sleepless nights after Charley, used some of that time constructively to work on this: (May take a few mins to finish uploading to Youtube)



Quoting SevereHurricane:


So it basicly it was a rain wrapped 6 mile wide F-2 Tornado.
Ah yes Wilma back half of her was worse than the front.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number FIVE
TROPICAL CYCLONE HAMISH, CAT 2 (11U)
10:50 AM EST March 6 2009
==============================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Hamish, Category Two [982 hPa] located at 14.3S 146.8E or 210 kms northeast of Cooktown and 310 kms north northeast of Cairns has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south-southwest at 5 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Hamish is expected to move slowly south, bringing it a little closer to the north tropical coast, while deepening. Damaging wind gusts may affect coastal and island communities between Cape Melville and Cardwell during this afternoon or evening.

In the longer term the system is expected to take a south-southeastwards track and damaging wind gusts may develop about coastal and island communities between Cardwell and Saint Lawrence within 24 to 48 hours.

As the cyclone approaches the coast, sea levels are expected to be elevated above the normal expected tide along the coastline south of the cyclone. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
======================
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Cape Melville to Cardwell

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities from Cardwell to Saint Lawrence

TC Technical Bulletin
=================

Storm Force Winds
--------------
35 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
---------------
100 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
------------------
12 HRS: 15.6S 147.1E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 17.0S 147.7E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 19.6S 149.0E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 21.3S 149.6E - 80 knots (CAT 3)

Remarks
----
Deep convection wraps 0.80 on log10 spiral with an added 0.5 for W band. DT is 4.0. Well organised banding on recent VIS and microwave images. System is expected to continue to intensify under weak shear.

Good outlfow on all but the northeast quadrant and CMSS winds show an upper level ridge with strong divergence aloft. Stronger shear exists aloft to the south, though is modelled to weaken as the system moves into this region. The current main steering is a ridge to the east, though is likely to weaken and allow for a longer term SSE track.
Charlottefl , that video dam charley just tore up that gas station like it was nothing.
Very warm tomorrow at my location in S. Ontario, 16C (61F) and sunny (but very windy). Could we get a few thunderstorms in the next few days?
Yeah and if you want my personal opinion these people were crazy for being out in it but...

Quoting hahaguy:
Charlottefl , that video dam charley just tore up that gas station like it was nothing.
LOL tell me who is worst out of all these







Quoting atmoaggie:


Are these guys talking about mesovorticies?

Isabel (sorry Teddy, if you are here.)


Its alright, we all know I hated that Hurricane.
Futuremet I got to go with the last one lmao.
121. JRRP
the last one was real ???

Radar Link

My son's name is Hamish. I'll tell him he has a TC named after him when he gets home from school.
Have a good weekend all.
My friend is going to fly up to the northeast coast for five days to experience Hamish. From the looks of its rapid intensification today, and given the extremely favorable environment, a Category 3 on the SSHS may not be out of the question.
Hi all its been a while! I need advice. I will be installing an anemometer on the roof of my home. I will be attaching it to the plumbing vent. My question is will the slope of the roof block wind and give me an inaccurate reading?
Quoting P451:


Looking warm sector for the east right into the north east through the next few systems (Friday/Saturday - and then the March 11th-ish one).

But the following week, March 18-20, models hint at it being colder and thus possibly more snow for the northern mid-atlantic into new england.

A season like this it wouldn't be of any surprise - right into the first 10 days of april - to get snow.


march 14th,brother march 14th....I'll be up there and I'll have my mini-dell w/me,so with any luck we'll be talkn some snow probably just 1-3",the forcast highs are supposed to be in the mid 30's starting the 12-16...I'm hopin for a white vacation,hopefully its snows at night,its so cool when there's snow on the ground and its snowing,everythings orange in the city including the clouds!!!!
Quoting gator23:
Hi all its been a while! I need advice. I will be installing an anemometer on the roof of my home. I will be attaching it to the plumbing vent. My question is will the slope of the roof block wind and give me an inaccurate reading?


Place the unit as far away from any obstruction as possible and as appropriate. I would not suggest doing the vent item. Additional stress on the penetration will more than likely create a leak in your roof and provide inaccurate measurments due to the pitch an acceleration. Good luck.
Quoting JRRP:
the last one was real ???



thats our local station down here in sarasota,fl...yes its 100% real/not staged...
Quoting gator23:
Hi all its been a while! I need advice. I will be installing an anemometer on the roof of my home. I will be attaching it to the plumbing vent. My question is will the slope of the roof block wind and give me an inaccurate reading?


Yes
Just a quick q here. Does any1 know the population tot. in Hannish's storm path?
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice Number SIX
TROPICAL CYCLONE HAMISH, CAT 2 (11U)
1:50 PM EST March 6 2009
==============================

At 1:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Hamish, Category Two [982 hPa] located at 14.6S 146.6E or 175 kms east northeast of Cooktown and 275 kms north northeast of Cairns has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south-southwest at 5 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Hamish is expected to move south, bringing it a little closer to the north tropical coast, while deepening. Damaging wind gusts may affect coastal and island communities between Cape Melville and Cardwell during this evening.

In the longer term the system is expected to take a south-southeastwards track and damaging wind gusts may develop about coastal and island communities between Cardwell and Saint Lawrence within 24 to 48 hours.

As the cyclone approaches the coast, sea levels are expected to be elevated above the normal expected tide along the coastline south of the cyclone. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Areas of heavy rainfall can be expected between Cooktown and Ingham causing stream rises and possible flooding.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
======================
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Cape Melville to Cardwell.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities from Cardwell to Saint Lawrence.

Hamish has an eye
greetings from SWFL - 54 degrees here - postcard perfect weather for the tourists.....locals are wondering if we'll ever see a rainy day again.

We're color coordinated with Texas on the fire/drought maps -- chili peppa'RED.....not good
Quoting gator23:
Hi all its been a while! I need advice. I will be installing an anemometer on the roof of my home. I will be attaching it to the plumbing vent. My question is will the slope of the roof block wind and give me an inaccurate reading?


That sounds like an inappropriate location for your anemometer.
They need to be placed in obstruction free areas or you will not be even close to accurate.

And good morning to Surfmom and everyone!

Unemployment hits 25-year high
Jobless rate hits 8.1% in February as a record-high 12.5 million people are unemployed.
The Alaska Volcano Observatory raised the warning level for Okmok to Yellow (or Advisory) after a series of seismic bursts that lasted for six hours. The tremors repeated again Wednesday but have since subsided. AVO coordinating scientist Steve McNutt said these seismic signals could mean anything.

137. P451
Quoting all4hurricanes:

Hamish has an eye


How can that possibly be only a 70mph system?

Why do WPac/Indian Ocean disturbances have lower wind ratings for a comparative cloud structure versus Atlantic systems? I don't get it. Their depressions are as organized as our TS' and their TS' are as organized as our Hurricanes with regards to satellite presentation.



Lunar Cycle Turns Hurricanes Into Beasts
Michael Reilly, Discovery News:Link

Moon's Spooky Effect | Discovery News Video March 5, 2009 -- Werewolves aren't the only terrors that follow the lunar cycle; hurricanes strengthen more often under a new moon than at any other time, according to a new study.

The moon's spooky influence on Earth and its denizens is legendary, and rightly so. From fertility to suicide, most phenomena attributed to Luna are almost exclusively superstition.

But Peter Yaukey of the University of New Orleans has found what he thinks is real evidence that the phases of moon drive hurricane behavior. Storms that occurred in the Atlantic Ocean between 1950 and 2007 were more likely to form right after the new moon. They also intensified 49 percent more often after a new moon than at any other time in the 29.5-day lunar cycle.

Over the last century, Yaukey said, a smattering of scientific research has hinted that the moon may influence rain patterns, thunderstorms and other meteorological events. Explanations for why this is are many, but nothing conclusive has been shown.

"I had a lot of skepticism attributed to the moon, and I still do in a sense," he said. "It's not enough to have a pattern in the data. You need to have a mechanism to explain it."

There are a range of possibilities. Just as the moon pulls on Earth's oceans and creates the tides, it also tugs on the air above it. Lunar atmospheric tides are thought to be weak, but could create favorable conditions for storms to strengthen.

The moon's gravity may also pull cosmic dust into Earth's atmosphere in a cyclical fashion, perhaps seeding cloud formation and precipitation.

The most promising explanation is internal tides encouraged by the lunar cycle. The currents beneath the ocean surface could circulate warm water up underneath a storm, supplying it with the energy it needs to intensify.










the only reason we see the phases of the moon is because its white surface reflects the suns light.....the moon's phases have zero effect on the tides or gravitational pull....now the moonrise and moonset in a particular area is another story!!!!or the actual distance of the moon further or closer to the earth!!!!!
Suggested reading tutorial..

Moon Tides

How The Moon Affects Ocean Tides...Link

The word "tides" is a generic term used to define the alternating rise and fall in sea level with respect to the land, produced by the gravitational attraction of the moon and the sun. To a much smaller extent, tides also occur in large lakes, the atmosphere, and within the solid crust of the earth, acted upon by these same gravitational forces of the moon and sun.
possible effects on TC's from a new moon:less reflected sunlight=cooler upper atmosphere at night over warmer waters=more convective activity durning the TC season durning new moon phases,thats the conclusion I've come up with,but has ZERO to due w/tides!!!
Spring Tides


"When the moon is full or new, the gravitational pull of the moon and sun are combined. At these times, the high tides are very high and the low tides are very low. This is known as a spring high tide. Spring tides are especially strong tides (they do not have anything to do with the season Spring). They occur when the Earth, the Sun, and the Moon are in a line. The gravitational forces of the Moon and the Sun both contribute to the tides. Spring tides occur during the full moon and the new moon."

Neap Tides
During the moon's quarter phases the sun and moon work at right angles, causing the bulges to cancel each other.
any folks from Houston on the blog today--check out SMMCDAVID's blog for information regarding the Portlight.org walk there. Hurricane season approaches -- part of being prepared is supporting this WU grassroots organization that may be offering YOU hurricane aid this season
"spring tides occur durning both the new and full moon phases"..so if it happens durning BOTH new and full moon,that pretty much blows the theory that its the moons pull,because,if that were the case the same would happen durning the full moon....



2009 National Hurricane Conference

April 6-April 10 |Austin Convention Center|Austin, TX Link

The nation's forum for education and professional training in hurricane preparedness.


Purpose of the Conference
The primary goal of the National Hurricane Conference is to improve hurricane preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation in order to save lives and property in the United States and the tropical islands of the Caribbean and Pacific. In addition, the conference serves as a national forum for federal, state and local officials to exchange ideas and recommend new policies to improve Emergency Management.

To accomplish these goals, the annual conference emphasizes:



* Lessons Learned from Hurricane Strikes.

* State of the art programs worthy of emulation.

* New ideas being tested or considered.

* Information about new or ongoing assistance programs.

* The ABC's of hurricane preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation -- in recognition of the fact that there is a continual turnover of emergency management leadership and staff.




I guess pat-talk-tide!!!....,lol(meet the parents)....
Quoting stillwaiting:
I guess pat-talk-tide!!!....,lol(meet the parents)....


Wiki tide info in depthLink
Over the past month, been starting to grow increasingly concerned that yet another drought may impact all Florida as there has been very little rainfall statewide this year (with the exception of the Panhandle with a couple fronts). Well, the latest data has come in from the US Drought Monitoring Services and my suspicions have been confirmed as all Florida is now in some stage of drought, with the worst drought conditions existing in Southeast Florida.



Now I have been watching the computer models for the coming two weeks and there seems to be no relief in sight as, at best, there will only be a day or two with an isolated rain chance down here in South Florida over the next couple weeks. Add that to the fact that there was widespread freeze damage across the state due to the unusually cold and dry winter and this is all setting the stage for a very dangerous fire season statewide. I can only pray that rainfall will return to the state. This may be a controversial statement that I'm about to make but its the only hope that Florida has to escape this drought. Florida needs a tropical cyclone this hurricane season.