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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Poorly sited U.S. temperature instruments not responsible for artificial warming

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:57 PM GMT on January 25, 2010

Former TV weatherman Anthony Watts, who runs the popular global warming contrarian website, "Watts Up With That", was convinced that many of the U.S. network of surface weather stations had serious flaws in their siting that was causing an artificial warm bias in the observed increase in U.S. temperatures of 1.1°F over the past century. To address this concern, Watts established the website surfacestations.org in 2007, which enlisted an army of volunteers to travel the U.S. to obtain photographic evidence of poor siting of weather stations. The goal was to document cases where "microclimate" influence was important, and could be contaminating temperature measurements. (Note that this is a separate issue from the Urban Heat Island, the phenomenon where a metropolitan area in general is warmer than surrounding rural areas). Watts' volunteers--650 strong--documented the siting of 865 of the 1,218 stations used in the National Climatic Data Center's U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) for tracking climate change. As reported in Watt's 2009 publication put out by the Heartland Institute, the volunteers "found stations located next to the exhaust fans of air conditioning units, surrounded by asphalt parking lots and roads, on blistering-hot rooftops, and near sidewalks and buildings that absorb and radiate heat." Watts surmised that these poorly-sited stations were responsible for much of the increase in U.S. temperatures over the past century, due to "a bias trend that likely results from the thermometers being closer to buildings, asphalt, etc." Watts concluded, "the U.S. temperature record is unreliable. And since the U.S. record is thought to be the best in the world, it follows that the global database is likely similarly compromised and unreliable".


Figure 1. A poorly sited temperature sensor in Marysville, California, used for the USHCN. The sensor is situation right next to an asphalt parking lot, instead in the middle of a grassy field, as it is supposed to be. The sensor is also adjacent to several several air conditioners that blow their exhaust into the air nearby. Image credit: surfacestation.org.

Analysis of the data disagrees with Watts' conclusion
While Watts' publication by the Heartland Institute is a valuable source of information on siting problems of the U.S. network of weather stations, the publication did not undergo peer-review--the process whereby three anonymous scientists who are experts in the field review a manuscript submitted for publication, and offer criticisms on the scientific validity of the results, resulting in revisions to the original paper or outright rejection. The Heartland Institute is an advocacy organization that accepts money from corporate benefactors such as the tobacco industry and fossil fuel industry, and publishes non-peer reviewed science that inevitably supports the interests of the groups paying for the studies. Watts did not actually analyze the data to see if taking out the poorly sited surface stations would have a significant impact on the observed 1.1°F increase in U.S. temperatures over the past century. His study would never have been publishable in a peer-reviewed scientific journal.


Figure 2. Annual average maximum and minimum unadjusted temperature change calculated using (c) maximum and (d) minimum temperatures from good and poor exposure sites (Menne 2010). Poor sites showed a cooler maximum temperature compared to good sites. For minimum temperature, the poor sites were slightly warmer. The net effect was a cool bias in poorly sited stations. The dashed lines are for stations ranked by NOAA, while the solid lines are for the stations ranked by surfacestations.org.

Fortunately, a proper analysis of the impact of these poorly-sited surface stations on the U.S. historical temperature record has now been done by Dr. Matthew Menne and co-authors at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). In a talk at last week's 90th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society, Dr. Menne reported the results of their new paper just accepted for publication in the Journal of Geophysical Research titled, On the reliability of the U.S. Surface Temperature Record. Dr. Menne's study split the U.S. surface stations into two categories: good (rating 1 or 2) and bad (ratings 3, 4 or 5). They performed the analysis using both the rating provided by surfacestations.org, and from an independent rating provided by NOAA personnel. In general, the NOAA-provided ratings coincided with the ratings given by surfacestations.org. Of the NOAA-rated stations, only 71 stations fell into the "good" siting category, while 454 fell into the "bad" category. According to the authors, though, "the sites with good exposure, though small in number, are reasonably well distributed across the country and, as shown by Vose and Menne [2004], are of sufficient density to obtain a robust estimate of the CONUS average". Dr. Menne's study computed the average daily minimum and maximum temperatures from the good sites and poor sites. The results were surprising. While the poor sites had a slightly warmer average minimum temperature than the good sites (by 0.03°C), the average maximum temperature measured at the poor sites was significantly cooler (by 0.14°C) than the good sites. As a result, overall average temperatures measured at the poor sites were cooler than the good sites. This is the opposite of the conclusion reached by Anthony Watts in his 2009 Heartland Institute publication.

Why did the poorly sited stations measure cooler temperatures?
The reason why the poorly-sites stations measured cooler temperatures lies in the predominant types of thermometers used at the two types of sites. An electronic Maximum/Minimum Temperature System (MMTS) is used at 75% of the poor sites. These MMTS sensors are attached by cable to an indoor readout device, and are consequently limited by cable length as to how far they can be sited from the building housing the indoor readout device. As a result, they are often located close to heated buildings, paved surfaces, air conditioner exhausts, etc. It turns out that these MMTS thermometers have a flaw that causes them to measure minimum temperatures that are slightly too warm, and maximum temperatures that are considerably too cool, leading to an overall cool bias in measured average temperatures. In contrast, only 30% of the "good" sites used the MMTS sensors. The "good" sites predominantly used Liquid in Glass (LiG) thermometers housed in wooden shelters that were more easily located further from the buildings where the observers worked. Since the poorly-sites stations were dominantly equipped with MMTS thermometers, they tended to measure temperatures that were too cool, despite their poor siting.


Figure 3. Comparison of U.S. average annual (a) maximum and (b) minimum temperatures calculated using USHCN version 2 temperatures. Temperatures were adjusted to correct for changes in instrumentation, station relocations, and changes in the time of observation, making the trend from good sites show close agreement with poor sites. Good and poor site ratings are based on surfacestations.org. For comparison, the data between 2004 - 2008 taken by the new high-quality U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN, black dashed line) is shown, and displays excellent agreement for that time period. Image credit: Menne 2010.

Independent verification of recent USHCN annual temperatures
Clearly, the siting of many of the surface stations used to track climate change in the U.S. is not good. To address this issue, in 2004 NOAA created the U.S. Climate Reference Network, a collection of 114 stations in the continental United States for the express purpose of detecting the national signal of climate change. The stations were sited and instrumented with climate studies in mind, and can provide an extremely high-quality independent check on the old USHCN network. Each of 114 stations at 107 locations (some stations were installed as nearby pairs) is equipped with very accurate instruments in a triplicate configuration so that each measurement can be checked for internal consistency. As shown in Figure 3, the USCRN air temperature departures for 2004 - 2008 are extremely well aligned with those derived from the USHCN version 2 temperature data. For these five years, the the difference between the mean annual temperatures measured by the old USHCN compared to the new USCRN was just 0.03°C, with a mathematical correlation coefficient (r-squared) of 0.997. Menne et al. concluded, "This finding provides independent verification that the USHCN version 2 data are consistent with research-quality measurements taken at pristine locations and do not contain spurious trends during the recent past even if sampled exclusively at poorly sited stations. While admittedly this period of coincident observations between the networks is rather brief, the value of the USCRN as a benchmark for reducing the uncertainty of historic observations from the USHCN and other networks will only increase with time". The authors finally concluded, "we find no evidence that the CONUS temperature trends are inflated due to poor siting".

Crediting Anthony Watts
The surfacestations.org effort coordinated by Anthony Watts has made a valuable contribution to science, helping us better understand the nature of the errors in the U.S. historical temperature data set. In his talk last week at the AMS conference, and in the credits of his paper, Dr. Menne had some genuinely grateful comments on the efforts of Anthony Watts and the volunteers of surfacestations.org. However, as of this writing, Watts has made no mention on surfacestations.org or on wattsupwiththat.com of Dr. Menne's study.

I'll have a new post Wednesday or Thursday.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting atmoaggie:

I was going to say "well, not at the equator, they don't". But even that is not true, depending on the movements and amount of convergence associated with, the ITCZ.

And, in some places, it is certainly cold enough year-round, with precip being the variable of interest.


to be fair they look different with snowcoat - but they stay varied from their surrounding.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Chacaltaya is on wiki - that photo is available from a few sources.

(cept it is no more already)


Ok, I do understand they are melting. I'm not arguing that. But what is so special about it? they have been melting for thousands of years. What makes this melting faster than it was then, and how do you prove that?
GW also scores a colossal FAIL in the "greenhouse theory", in which the assumption is that CO2 manages to "hold in the heat like a greenhouse roof". There is no proof of this. One study, and I forgot who has recently done it with NASA, has found that the level of IR radiation from the Earth's atmosphere varies wildly up and down. It does not remain anywhere near the constant used by GW prediction models. If the atmosphere can vent more heat, then GW theory collapses.

There's just no roof on the greenhouse!

Besides, when someone tells you that you need to pay billions of dollars to Third World countries who, inspite of all of the advances of the 20th century, still haven't managed to solve any of their problems on their own, you've GOT to question the true motive of the person leveling that ultimatum. Giving away billions of dollars has NEVER once been proven to solve a problem. Witness Social Security and Medicare, never a hand-up, just a hand-out. It's sad, but true.
Quoting Minnemike:

look at the picture. that's a glacier. it shrank and the nd picture illustrates the entire region that the glacier receded from, despite ever-so-slightly different perspective. note each feature in the landscape, you will see how the glacier receded to approximately the line of shadow present across the top image. glaciers do not do this kind of shifting on a seasonal basis.

Do you have any pics of Detroit from, say, 12,000 years ago we can compare to one from today?
Quoting rotarymunkey:

So, at a time when the planet was generally cold, and a great deal of the Northern Hemisphere was uninhabitable due to ice cover, CO2 was lower because CO2-producing organisms had less available land to live on. Are you following me? How long was the previous ice age? How many thousands of years did it take for CO2 levels to fall from the last warm intercine period?

Of COURSE there's more CO2 in the air now; there are hundreds of millions more people and animals living now than 20,000 years ago! If we all lived in caves and burned wood for heat, we'd STILL manage to increase CO2. The livestock necessary to feed our population alone generates a massive amount of CO2 yearly.

BUT... it's still ONLY a trace gas which accounts for just .0004 PERCENT (rounded slightly) of our atmosphere! This is the very definition of the "tail wagging the dog" effect. That's 338 PARTS PER MILLION.

When giant plants once grew in the passes of the Sierra Nevada, now preserved in the fossil record there, it had to be both WARMER and RICHER in CO2 at that point, and it wasn't caused by humans. The massive beds of coal, and reserves of oil laid down due to dead plant matter once had to pull massive amounts of CO2 out of the atmosphere in order to generate the quantities of material we find underground today.

When Vikings once farmed Greenland for generations, leaving their dead buried where there's only permafrost today, it had to be significantly warmer than today.

Then there's the errors of averaging. Canadian and Russian stations in the interior of the continents have been eliminated from the record, while warmer coastal stations' records have been "extrapolated" over 1200 mile averages. This is not a siting error, this is a significant intentional skewing of the data. ESPECIALLY when comparing the NEW record to historical figures which STILL CONTAIN the data from the colder stations.

For example, if I used to take a temperature reading on the trunk of your car just after you'd driven it, and averaged it with the interior temperature where you sit, we'd expect a cool reading compared to an average which included the interior and, oh let's say, the surface of the hood. Sure I could still claim that I was averaging one interior reading and one exterior reading from a car which had been driven, but to claim that the car is now, obviously, far hotter than before due to being driven, is ludicrously false.

The same thing is occuring in climate data today, and as a result, any CURRENT datasets which are being compared to HISTORICAL datasets will ALWAYS find warming.

It is dishonest and deceitful. Dr. Masters I believe is trying to be forthcoming in his posts, but obliquely attacking someone (Watts) who is merely working diligently to confirm raw data, is simply wrong in this case. Watts posts what he finds, whether it confirms or refutes his assumptions. GW acolytes could learn much from his methods.

Also "scientists" who research Global Warming have been provided funding in order to do so. If they suddenly concluded there was no GW, funding would cease, as would cushy jobs at universities, NASA, NOAA, etc. I should think that the "human motivation" to find evidence of GW is rather obvious. Politicians are motivated to seek reelection, and so make promises. Scientists are motivated to produce research, and so they propose new theories. These theories are not "self-funding"; they add nothing to the GNP of the United States, or other countries. They require money for further research, and no matter what, will always require money for further research. Fields and forests are "CO2 sinks". GW research projects are "financial sinks".

I am continually amazed at the low level of education which has produce a population willing to believe almost anything a scientist says, merely because he says it with authority.


You got that wrong. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations are currently closer to 0.04%, not that other number you posted. While it is a trace gas, so is tropospheric ozone, yet it's enough to block out most of the harmful UV rays from the sun. Take all that ozone, condense it to the surface, and you have a layer several milimetres thick. Now, when you have CO2 that comprises a relatively large portion of the atmospheric gases and also blocks out some solar radiation and prevents it from escaping to space, what does that do to our temperatures? Being a trace gas does not make it insignificant, just like the 0.5% of water vapor in our atmosphere is responsible for everything from hurricanes to flash floods. CO2 has often followed temperature in the past, yes, but it can also be the other way around. That's basic, undisputed science. This is also a dangerous positive feedback mechanism because as the temperatures warm, the ocean loses its ability to hold CO2, releasing more into the atmosphere, and causing more warming.

Yes, of course CO2 concentrations have been higher, when humans were not around. But of course, there were also dinosaurs. We are accelerating ourselves into a climate regime not seen in the history of human civilization, in the history of the ice age cycle, and possibly not seen since 55 million years ago.

Scientists get funding, yes, otherwise they'd have no money for their research. But the oil lobbyists and the climate change deniers get even more money, and this money is political. When political ideology trumps science, is there really any point of skepticism any more?
Quoting tornadodude:


Ok, I do understand they are melting. I'm not arguing that. But what is so special about it? they have been melting for thousands of years. What makes this melting faster than it was then, and how do you prove that?


well thats fine - they are melting unusually fast though, in the presence of man made CO2 enriched atmosphere.

Remember that other article - that was the science behind the rates. It was the cited part.
Quoting JFLORIDA:


well thats fine - they are melting unusually fast though, in the presence of man made CO2 enriched atmosphere.


unusually fast compared to what? how fast were they melting thousands of years ago?
It is remarkable that scientist and creationist agree when it comes to climate change.

The Pope: "creation is under threat"
Pope Benedict XVI spoke today on environmental issues, singling out the importance of a September U.N. summit in New York to work on negotiations for an international framework to tackle global warming, preparing for the U.N. Conference on Climate Change in Copenhagen in December.

The Pope said that he wishes "to encourage all the participants in the United Nations summit to enter into their discussions constructively and with generous courage," adding it was incredibly important that "the international community and individual governments send the right signals to their citizens and succeed in countering harmful ways of treating the environment!"

The pope was not flippant about the current state of global environment. Saying that "creation is under threat," he pointed to recent examples of the large-scale fires in Athens, Greece and water shortages in many parts of the world.

Calling humanity the "guardians of his [the Creator's] creation", the Pope said that a transformation in the global economy to protect the environment and share resources among the poor.

"Together we can build an integral human development beneficial for all peoples, present and future, a development inspired by the values of charity in truth. For this to happen it is essential that the current model of global development be transformed through a greater, and shared, acceptance of responsibility for creation: this is demanded not only by environmental factors, but also by the scandal of hunger and human misery," the Pope told around 3,000 people at his summer papal residence.

He also called on nations to take greater responsibility for the resources they consume: "the economic and social costs of using up shared resources must be recognized with transparency and borne by those who incur them, and not by other peoples or future generations." He added that nations must "use resources in such a way that every individual and community can live with dignity."

This is not the first time Pope Benedict XVI has been outspoken about the environment and climate change. In the past he has called the the fight against climate change a "moral obligation". Often he has linked environmental degradation with materialism, saying that "in a world closed in on its materialism, it is easier for the human being to make himself the dictator of all other creatures and of nature". Pope Benedict XVI, the 265th Pope, was elected in 2005; he has arguably been the most vocal Pope ever on environmental issues.
http://news.mongabay.com/2009/0825-hance_pope.html

Living up to the Pope's words: the Vatican turns to solar power
http://news.mongabay.com/2008/1128-hance_pope.html

Pope Benedict XVI says environment has been undervalued by Catholics
http://news.mongabay.com/2008/0807-hance_pope.html
Ill find that article later its the one from last night - remember.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Do you have any pics of Detroit from, say, 12,000 years ago we can compare to one from today?

how does that make a point..? something like the two color photos could be 12,000 years apart?
have any of you ever had a child ask a question, and then follow every answer up with a question? do you think that child is trying to learn a whole heck of a lot, or is he/she trying to just bug the hell out of you by the act of some immature game?
should i ask more, find some crutch of yours to expose?
when does it end contrarian?
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Ill find that article later its the one from last night - remember.


ok thanks, I'm intrigued by the science that can prove how fast something melted thousands of years ago.
All of the major churches have released warnings and considerations of climate change.
Quoting tornadodude:


ok thanks, I'm intrigued by the science that can prove how fast something melted thousands of years ago.


It was technical. Very much so, they went into the soils.
never mind
a virtual repeat of something already asked
Quoting JFLORIDA:


It was technical. Very much so, they went into the soils.



alright, im looking forward to this article.


sorry to have to leave this wunderful debate, but I have a date tonight, so have a good one, all of you (:
231-mph NH wind gust is no longer world's fastest

First the Old Man, now the Big Wind.

New Hampshire's Mount Washington has lost its distinction as the site of the fastest wind gust ever recorded on Earth, officials at the Mount Washington Observatory said Tuesday.

The concession came three days after the World Meteorological Organization posted a snippet on its Web site saying a panel of experts reviewing extreme weather and climate data turned up a 253 mph gust on Australia's Barrow Island during Cyclone Olivia in 1996.

That tops the 231 mph record set atop Mount Washington on April 12, 1934.

"It's obviously a big disappointment. Having the world record for over six decades was such a part of the soul of this organization and for fans of Mount Washington around the country," said Scot Henley, the observatory's executive director.

The official title at issue is"highest wind gust ever recorded on the surface of the Earth by means of an anemometer." But to most people in New Hampshire, it was simply"the Big Wind," a source of pride in a state that also revered its Old Man of the Mountain, a rock outcropping that appeared to be a man's profile and was featured on the state's quarter.

The Old Man crumbled to bits in 2003, seven years after the wind record apparently toppled.

Henley stressed that Mount Washington still holds the record for the Northern and Western hemispheres, and said it still can claim to be home to some of the world's worst weather given the combination of bitter cold, snow, wind and freezing fog it frequently experiences.

"So the work continues up there, and we'll be ready for the next one," he said.

No one noticed the new record gust at the time, Henley said.

"Somehow it fell through the cracks and the Australians didn't think it was a big deal," he said."We hear that, and it kinds of blows our minds, but of course, we're weather fans and we're tuned into that sort of thing."

Henley first heard about the meteorological organization's conclusion Monday, when someone posted a link to the item on the observatory's forum. He contacted the organization and learned that the information was part of a report being presented at an international conference in Turkey next month.

The panel of experts has shared its research with observatory officials, who plan to review it in the coming weeks.

"There's no reason to believe it's not accurate, but we owe it to this institution and to our state and really to weather fans all over the world to make sure it is indeed accurate," he said.

The Mount Washington Observatory is a private, non-profit organization that maintains a weather station at the summit of the 6,288-foot mountain. On April 12, 1934, there were three crew members, two guests, three cats and five kittens at the observatory, according to observer Alex McKenzie, who later wrote a book about the Big Wind.

According to his account, April 11 started with a brilliant sunrise, but the weather soon turned cloudy. By evening, fog obscured the summit and rime ice formed up to a foot thick. Early the next morning, when observer Wendell Stephenson headed outside to clear ice from the anemometer, the wind knocked him flat on his back as he opened the door. When he accidentally dropped the club he was using to break up the ice, it went flying off into the fog. Gusts were at 150 mph.

"I dropped all other activities and concentrated on observations. Everyone in the house was'mobilized' as during a war attack and assigned a job," observer Sal Pagliuca wrote in a log book.

Gusts grew stronger through the afternoon, until 1:21 p.m., when the 231 mph gust was recorded.

"Many people have wanted to know what we did after that," McKenzie wrote."Did we cheer or open a bottle of champagne, or what? Well, we didn't do anything special for a while, except make more measurements."

Mary Stampone, assistant professor of geography at the University of New Hampshire and the New Hampshire State Climatologist, said she had long expected the record to fall.

"As we improve our technology in terms of instrumentation, and we're observing in more locations, we were bound to pick up on something," she said.



from here






from here



Link




atmo, nothing is proven by the glacier pics. what is proven is that folks go to lengthy extents to circumvent good analysis. that's what you'll say of climate scientist conspiring in the hoax, and that's what i'll say of agenda driven denialists who seek to undermine information as a knee jerk reaction they are most often unaware of.
Quoting Minnemike:

how does that make a point..? something like the two color photos could be 12,000 years apart?
have any of you ever had a child ask a question, and then follow every answer up with a question? do you think that child is trying to learn a whole heck of a lot, or is he/she trying to just bug the hell out of you by the act of some immature game?
should i ask more, find some crutch of yours to expose?
when does it end contrarian?

(You just answered one question with six)

Point is, there have been a lot of glaciers receding in the last 12,000 years...some of which survived to current times and are still doing so.
1016: So WTH took so long to confirm a 1996 anemometer reading?
Quoting Minnemike:
atmo, nothing is proven by the glacier pics. what is proven is that folks go to lengthy extents to circumvent good analysis. that's what you'll say of climate scientist conspiring in the hoax, and that's what i'll say of agenda driven denialists who seek to undermine information as a knee jerk reaction they are most often unaware of.

Good wording. That is my point.

And rates at which they recede being faster or slower than pre-industrial times isn't something we can determine reliably.
1021. hydrus
Quoting Floodman:


A Saints paperweight...dem things is sharp!
They will be even sharper if they win the Superbowl.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Point is, there have been a lot of glaciers receding in the last 12,000 years...some of which survived to current times and are still doing so.
It seems you missed this item (notation is historic rate)


World's glaciers continue to melt at historic rates

Latest figures show the world's glaciers are continuing to melt so fast that many will disappear by the middle of this century
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jan/25/world-glacier-monitoring-service-figures
Quoting atmoaggie:
And rate at which they recede being faster or slower than pre-industrial times isn't something we can determine reliably.
Wrong again, see my last post. I'm sure you will study the article now indepth to keep up with the current state of science.
Quoting Ossqss:


Apparently there are many that disagree with you. LoL

31,486 American scientists have signed this petition,
including 9,029 with PhDs


This is the so-called "Oregon Petition", which I discussed in my "Manufactured Doubt" post:

"As is the case with any Manufactured Doubt campaign, a respected scientist was needed to lead the battle. One such scientist was Dr. Frederick Seitz, a physicist who in the 1960s chaired the organization many feel to be the most prestigious science organization in the world--the National Academy of Sciences. Seitz took a position as a paid consultant for R.J. Reynolds tobacco company beginning in 1978, so was well-versed in the art of Manufactured Doubt. According to the excellent new book, Climate Cover-up, written by desmogblog.com co-founder James Hoggan and Richard Littlemore, over a 10-year period Seitz was responsible for handing out $45 million in tobacco company money to researchers who overwhelmingly failed to link tobacco to anything the least bit negative. Seitz received over $900,000 in compensation for his efforts. He later became a founder of the George C. Marshall Institute, and used his old National Academy of Sciences affiliation to lend credibility to his attacks on global warming science until his death in 2008 at the age of ninety-six. It was Seitz who launched the "Oregon Petition", which contains the signatures of more than 34,000 scientists saying global warming is probably natural and not a crisis. The petition is a regular feature of the Manufactured Doubt campaign against human-caused global warming. The petition lists the "Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine" as its parent organization. According to Climate Cover-up, the Institute is a farm shed situated a couple of miles outside of Cave Junction, OR (population 17,000). The Institute lists seven faculty members, two of whom are dead, and has no ongoing research and no students. It publishes creationist-friendly homeschooler curriculums books on surviving nuclear war. The petition was sent to scientists and was accompanied by a 12-page review printed in exactly the same style used for the prestigious journal, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. A letter from Seitz, who is prominently identified as a former National Academy of Sciences president, accompanied the petition and review. Naturally, many recipients took this to be an official National Academy of Sciences communication, and signed the petition as a result. The National Academy issued a statement in April 2008, clarifying that it had not issued the petition, and that its position on global warming was the opposite. The petition contains no contact information for the signers, making it impossible to verify. In its August 2006 issue, Scientific American presented its attempt to verify the petition. They found that the scientists were almost all people with undergraduate degrees, with no record of research and no expertise in climatology. Scientific American contacted a random sample of 26 of the 1,400 signatories claiming to have a Ph.D. in a climate related science. Eleven said they agreed with the petition, six said they would not sign the petition today, three did not remember the petition, one had died, and five did not respond".

Jeff Masters
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


You got that wrong. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations are currently closer to 0.04%, not that other number you posted.
Yes, of course CO2 concentrations have been higher, when humans were not around. But of course, there were also dinosaurs. We are accelerating ourselves into a climate regime not seen in the history of human civilization, in the history of the ice age cycle, and possibly not seen since 55 million years ago.

Scientists get funding, yes, otherwise they'd have no money for their research. But the oil lobbyists and the climate change deniers get even more money, and this money is political. When political ideology trumps science, is there really any point of skepticism any more?

Hence my point about Dr. Masters' post belittling Watts' work... healthy skepticism is just that... healthy.

Yes, the number should be 0.04 percent. I forgot to carry the decimal point over in converting from millionths to hundredths. But you can't wildly and sensationally claim that CO2 at .04% works like water vapor at .5%. That's four hundredths versus fifty hundredths... Water vapor involved a change in a state of matter. CO2 absorbtion does not. CO2 also does not absorb heat for a length of time, but for just nanoseconds (because it does not change its state of matter). There are totally different properties of physics involved here.

The same can be said of Ozone, which involves the splitting of a molecule by UV radiation. Does a CO2 molecule split, or change its state of matter from a liquid to a gas, back to a liquid, and then a solid with an increase in height in the atmosphere?

Where's your proof of the acceleration of temp increase? What's your proof that this has never been seen before on this planet? I'll counter your argument with the Vostok ice core data, which shows temp increases and decreases on a much more rapid scale than we're seeing today.

For that matter, where's your proof of the financial payments from Big Oil to the skeptics? I'm a skeptic, and I could sure use some of that money being taken from my tax dollars to fund Hansen's research, or that of the NOAA!

How many SUVs did dinosaurs drive? How much coal did they burn? Are you actually saying that the presence of dinosaurs was enough to raise CO2 to levels far higher than all of the worst that mankind has been able to do in the last 200 years? Should be believe that the planet would be better off if we all stopped breathing?

I'll repeat my assertion (theory) once more that we have NOT seen a weather pattern yet in the duration of human existence which generates a mile-thick sheet of ice over North America. Therefore, we have NOT seen ALL that this planet can produce, and we CANNOT remotely claim that we alone are having any effect at all on these global-scale temperature swings. It's claimed that the Solar Minimum reduces output on the Earth by .1%. I say that's bull-hockey. We are just now learning the effect that the solar wind has on the expansion and contraction of the upper atmosphere, and how that might affect the atmosphere's ability to shed or retain heat. The claim that the Solar Minimum only affect the Earth's radiation input by .1% is inaccurate as there are more forces at work than we've divined so far.

In a nutshell, we don't know what causes ice ages, nor what causes them to end. These are events for which we have worldwide historical data, yet we're clueless. And you would have us believe that we're so much more knowledgeable about the behavior of a trace gas in our atmosphere which, until 2009, we didn't even know CLUMPS TOGETHER! We're supposed to believe in "greenhouse theory" when in fact, the physics of the theory run completely counter to the laws of physics. We're told to believe that CO2 "traps" heat like water vapor when it doesn't, and can't because it DOES NOT CHANGE ITS STATE OF MATTER.

GW is crap-science for people who didn't understand science the first time around in high school.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
All of the major churches have released warnings and considerations of climate change.

All of the major churches once insisted that the world was flat, and that our Sun revolved around the Earth. Last time I checked, that was only 400-500 years ago when those beliefs held sway in the court of public opinion.

Let the churches fund GW research from now on... Let's see Mann and Hansen, et al survive on those checks.
Dr. M: Scientific American contacted a random sample of 26 of the 1,400 signatories claiming to have a Ph.D. in a climate related science. Eleven said they agreed with the petition, six said they would not sign the petition today, three did not remember the petition, one had died, and five did not respond.

Wow, I didn't know that.

So throwing out the ones that didn't or couldn't answer, that would be 11 of 17 PhD-holders in a climate-related science that agreed? Wow. ~65%

That is a big difference to that 99.9% of climate scientists blog you posted a year ago, or so.

Of course, they contacted those that signed this petition and had a small sample size, but, wow. Seems not quite everyone is on board with that consensus...
Quoting JFLORIDA:
All of the major churches have released warnings and considerations of climate change.


Even Westboro? Lol.
1029. bappit
GW is crap-science for people who didn't understand science the first time around in high school.

Let the churches fund GW research from now on...

This sounds like reasonable discussion to me. No argument here.
NASA Climatologist Gavin Schmidt Discusses the Surface Temperature Record
NASA's Earth Science News Team: Every year, some of the same questions come up about the temperature record. What are they?

Gavin Schmidt: First, do the annual rankings mean anything? Second, how should we interpret all of the changes from year to year -- or inter-annual variability -- the ups and downs that occur in the record over short time periods? Third, why does NASA GISS get a slightly different answer than the Met Office Hadley Centre does? Fourth, is GISS somehow cooking the books in its handling and analysis of the data?

NASA: 2009 just came in as tied as the 2nd warmest on record, which seems notable. What is the significance of the yearly temperature rankings?

Gavin Schmidt: In fact, for any individual year, the ranking isn't particularly meaningful. The difference between the second warmest and sixth warmest years, for example, is trivial. The media is always interested in the annual rankings, but whether it’s 2003, 2007, or 2009 that’s second warmest doesn't really mean much because the difference between the years is so small. The rankings are more meaningful as you look at longer averages and decade-long trends.

NASA: Why does GISS get a different answer than the Met Office Hadley Centre [a UK climate research group that works jointly with the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia to perform an analysis of global temperatures]?

Gavin Schmidt: It’s mainly related to the way the weather station data is extrapolated. The Hadley Centre uses basically the same data sets as GISS, for example, but it doesn't fill in large areas of the Arctic and Antarctic regions where fixed monitoring stations don't exist. Instead of leaving those areas out from our analysis, you can use numbers from the nearest available stations, as long as they are within 1,200 kilometers. Overall, this gives the GISS product more complete coverage of the polar areas.

NASA: Some might hear the word "extrapolate" and conclude that you’re “making up” data. How would you reply to such criticism?

Gavin Schmidt: The assumption is simply that the Arctic Ocean as a whole is warming at the average of the stations around it. What people forget is that if you don't put any values in for the areas where stations are sparse, then when you go to calculate the global mean, you’re actually assuming that the Arctic is warming at the same rate as the global mean. So, either way you are making an assumption.

Which one of those is the better assumption? Given all the changes we’ve observed in the Arctic sea ice with satellites, we believe it’s better to assume the Arctic Ocean is changing at the same rate as the other stations around the Arctic. That’s given GISS a slightly larger warming, particularly in the last couple of years, relative to the Hadley Centre.

NASA: Many have noted that the winter has been particularly cold and snowy in some parts of the United States and elsewhere. Does this mean that climate change isn't happening?

Gavin Schmidt: No, it doesn't, though you can't dismiss people's concerns and questions about the fact that local temperatures have been cool. Just remember that there's always going to be variability. That's weather. As a result, some areas will still have occasionally cool temperatures — even record-breaking cool — as average temperatures are expected to continue to rise globally.

NASA: So what's happening in the United States may be quite different than what's happening in other areas of the world?

Gavin Schmidt: Yes, especially for short time periods. Keep in mind that that the contiguous United States represents just 1.5 percent of Earth's surface.

NASA: GISS has been accused by critics of manipulating data. Has this changed the way that GISS handles its temperature data?

Gavin Schmidt: Indeed, there are people who believe that GISS uses its own private data or somehow massages the data to get the answer we want. That's completely inaccurate. We do an analysis of the publicly available data that is collected by other groups. All of the data is available to the public for download, as are the computer programs used to analyze it. One of the reasons the GISS numbers are used and quoted so widely by scientists is that the process is completely open to outside scrutiny.

NASA: What about the meteorological stations? There have been suggestions that some of the stations are located in the wrong place, are using outdated instrumentation, etc.

Gavin Schmidt: Global weather services gather far more data than we need. To get the structure of the monthly or yearly anomalies over the United States, for example, you’d just need a handful of stations, but there are actually some 1,100 of them. You could throw out 50 percent of the station data or more, and you’d get basically the same answers. Individual stations do get old and break down, since they're exposed to the elements, but this is just one of things that the NOAA has to deal with. One recent innovation is the set up of a climate reference network alongside the current stations so that they can look for potentially serious issues at the large scale – and they haven't found any yet.

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/gavin-schmidt.html#
1031. flsky
Is there any WEATHER going on today???
using glaciers to indicate climate is very much sound science. though it is difficult to categorize the variables involved in growth/receding when lumping all current glaciers in one group, you can get a valid 'litmus test' per se of the general climate conditions. study of glaciers is far more informative, with little controversy, than CO2 or temp levels when examining recent geological history. we can say some pretty certain things about the last 20,000 years there.
so no, a pic of detriot today and 12,000 years ago is completely irrelevant as a point when discussing whether the last 200 years of glacial activity was influenced by man. it is obvious such differences in detroit were well established natural cycles, and no single location can diagnose anything insofar as climate.
furthermore my remarks about the One pic comparison was explicitly about circumventing good analysis amidst a knee jerk reaction. both sides of the debate are guilty.
Quoting rotarymunkey:

Hence my point about Dr. Masters' post belittling Watts' work... healthy skepticism is just that... healthy.

Yes, the number should be 0.04 percent. I forgot to carry the decimal point over in converting from millionths to hundredths. But you can't wildly and sensationally claim that CO2 at .04% works like water vapor at .5%. That's four hundredths versus fifty hundredths... Water vapor involved a change in a state of matter. CO2 absorbtion does not. CO2 also does not absorb heat for a length of time, but for just nanoseconds (because it does not change its state of matter). There are totally different properties of physics involved here.

The same can be said of Ozone, which involves the splitting of a molecule by UV radiation. Does a CO2 molecule split, or change its state of matter from a liquid to a gas, back to a liquid, and then a solid with an increase in height in the atmosphere?

Where's your proof of the acceleration of temp increase? What's your proof that this has never been seen before on this planet? I'll counter your argument with the Vostok ice core data, which shows temp increases and decreases on a much more rapid scale than we're seeing today.

For that matter, where's your proof of the financial payments from Big Oil to the skeptics? I'm a skeptic, and I could sure use some of that money being taken from my tax dollars to fund Hansen's research, or that of the NOAA!

How many SUVs did dinosaurs drive? How much coal did they burn? Are you actually saying that the presence of dinosaurs was enough to raise CO2 to levels far higher than all of the worst that mankind has been able to do in the last 200 years? Should be believe that the planet would be better off if we all stopped breathing?

I'll repeat my assertion (theory) once more that we have NOT seen a weather pattern yet in the duration of human existence which generates a mile-thick sheet of ice over North America. Therefore, we have NOT seen ALL that this planet can produce, and we CANNOT remotely claim that we alone are having any effect at all on these global-scale temperature swings. It's claimed that the Solar Minimum reduces output on the Earth by .1%. I say that's bull-hockey. We are just now learning the effect that the solar wind has on the expansion and contraction of the upper atmosphere, and how that might affect the atmosphere's ability to shed or retain heat. The claim that the Solar Minimum only affect the Earth's radiation input by .1% is inaccurate as there are more forces at work than we've divined so far.

In a nutshell, we don't know what causes ice ages, nor what causes them to end. These are events for which we have worldwide historical data, yet we're clueless. And you would have us believe that we're so much more knowledgeable about the behavior of a trace gas in our atmosphere which, until 2009, we didn't even know CLUMPS TOGETHER! We're supposed to believe in "greenhouse theory" when in fact, the physics of the theory run completely counter to the laws of physics. We're told to believe that CO2 "traps" heat like water vapor when it doesn't, and can't because it DOES NOT CHANGE ITS STATE OF MATTER.

GW is crap-science for people who didn't understand science the first time around in high school.


Skepticism is a fundamental part of science, but too much of it can prevent science from progressing. CO2 and other greenhouse gases do not split, but this doesn't prevent them from absorbing heat. Ozone is created by the division of oxygen molecules, but absorbs solar rays in a different manner.

When I mentioned an acceleration in the increase in global temperatures, I was referring to later this decade, when solar activity picks up (pushing global temperatures up another 0.1C) and positive feedbacks and oscillations take over before CO2 emissions increase again due to economic recovery. All the factors preventing the acceleration of warming in the past decade are being removed. It currently appears that the extremes are changing and accelerating more rapidly than the average temperatures, and it's the extremes that you really experience. Soon, we could have the warmest year on record, year after year, and the rate of change keeps on accelerating. Due to the temperature gradient decrease, the jet stream can send storms farther north and south than usual.

For the evidence on Bio Oil donating to skeptics, see Dr. Masters' entry on this, post #1389.

Dinosaurs did not create CO2 through their activities (although the sauropods' flatulence produced methane), but they lived in a time when CO2 concentrations were much higher than today. But CO2 simply does not vary as quickly as it is now, and temperatures usually do not change as abruptly all around the globe as they are now. Although the Earth has many times experienced warming more than it is today, and higher CO2 concentrations and larger catastrophes, both the rate and the degree of warming is unprecedented in human history, fact. Humans have seen interglacials and ice ages, but we have not seen the third "hot" state of the Earth, which is what we are getting ourselves into this century. With such a massive temperature change globally, ecosystems will shift, and more than half of all plant and animal species will die. This century. Almost within a human lifetime.

So far this winter, we have seen very erratic weather patterns, and the El Nino Modoki (likely a pattern caused by global warming) is at least partially responsible. The Gulf Stream has also meandered and stalled several times, as it did in 2004, and is repeatedly diverting west of Greenland, which is unprecedented. The ENSO warm pool recently came very close to cutting off the Humbodlt Current, the richest cold water current on Earth, but it did not occur as the Warm Pool receded, but this could simply be a sign of things to come, as this pattern could accelerate in intensity year after year, and it is no longer accurate to say that global warming is occuring every decade, but perhaps now every day or even every hour.

Also, where is your proof that atmospheric CO2 clumps together? At the low concentrations we have in the atmosphere, such a clumping would likely be difficult to acheive, and in addition would cause fatalities such as from the limic eruption from Lake Nyos in 1986. Observations in forests, mountaintops, near streams and in deserts show that the global distribution of CO2 is pretty much even, and that's why they had the observations on Mauna Kea.

Global warming denial is for people who do not understand that science is ever-evolving and progressive, and that paradigms change and shift over time.
1025.

And your qualifications for making that last statement? Just curious when someone jumps down a phds throat...
1035. hydrus
Quoting Floodman:
1025.

And your qualifications for making that last statement? Just curious when someone jumps down a phds throat...
Good Evening Flood. I hope you are doing well. Last time I posted you were very busy. If you have a moment, read post # 1021.
1036. Patrap
Quoting atmoaggie:

Good wording. That is my point.

And rates at which they recede being faster or slower than pre-industrial times isn't something we can determine reliably.


Quantifying that is easy as being a Lawyer,

or being a paid witness for the wind vs Water debate,..from a Hurricane Disaster.

..Not many Mammoths were driving Land Rovers by the Billions and pulling oil and coal out the ground and refining it 24/7/365 and well..you may get the pic,you may not.

And the USGS has a view as to whats occurring here,at Glacier National Park.

Glacier Monitoring Studies
Monitoring and Assessing Glacier Changes and Their Associated Hydrologic and Ecologic Effects in Glacier National Park


Purpose:

To systematically monitor changes in Glacier National Park’s namesake glaciers and to determine the causes of changes, assess their ecological and hydrological effects, and predict future changes and effects.
GPS data collection, Sperry Glacier, 2005, USGS Photo

Glacier National Park’s namesake glaciers have receded rapidly since the Park’s establishment in 1910, primarily due to long-term changes in regional and global climate. These changes include warming, particularly of daily minimum temperatures, and persistent droughts. This warming is ongoing and the loss of the Park’s glaciers continues, with the park’s glaciers predicted to disappear by 2030.

In the past decade, Glacier NP has experienced dramatic climate variability that includes record winter and summer droughts, near record summertime temperatures, as well as near-record winter snowfall. While the park’s glaciers continue to shrink, it is not clear whether these dramatic fluctuations have accelerated or slowed glacier recession and downwasting. In part this is because studies of glaciers in Glacier NP to date have focused on changes in the area of individual glaciers and the extent of glaciers in the park. Few measurements of glacier volume or mass have been made. Measurements of area alone can be misleading; changes in mass and/or ice flux can result in significant changes to the glacier and to streamflow below the glacier even when glacier area remains stable. Though hydrologic changes such as these can have important ecologic effects downstream of the glaciers, the nature and extent of changes in runoff volume, and stream temperature have not been measured or analyzed

Quoting hydrus:
Good Evening Flood. I hope you are doing well. Last time I posted you were very busy. If you have a moment, read post # 1021.


LOL...yes, they will be very pointy indeed!
Ozone is created by the division of oxygen molecules but absorbs solar rays in a different manner.

Wrong. UV causes a disassociation with O3 becoming O2 and O. Then they re-associate. This is nothing like CO2 bonds. Or the of IR absorption...the vibrational mode/rotational mode on a molecular level.
Quoting Patrap:


Quantifying that is easy as being a Lawyer,

or being a paid witness for the wind vs Water debate,..from a Hurricane Disaster.

..Not many Mammoths were driving Land Rovers by the Billions and pulling oil and coal out the ground and refining it 24/7/365 and well..you may get the pic,you may not.

And the USGS has a view as to whats occurring here,at Glacier National Park.

Glacier Monitoring Studies
Monitoring and Assessing Glacier Changes and Their Associated Hydrologic and Ecologic Effects in Glacier National Park

Purpose:

To systematically monitor changes in Glacier National Park’s namesake glaciers and to determine the causes of changes, assess their ecological and hydrological effects, and predict future changes and effects.
GPS data collection, Sperry Glacier, 2005, USGS Photo

Glacier National Park’s namesake glaciers have receded rapidly since the Park’s establishment in 1910, primarily due to long-term changes in regional and global climate. These changes include warming, particularly of daily minimum temperatures, and persistent droughts. This warming is ongoing and the loss of the Park’s glaciers continues, with the park’s glaciers predicted to disappear by 2030.

In the past decade, Glacier NP has experienced dramatic climate variability that includes record winter and summer droughts, near record summertime temperatures, as well as near-record winter snowfall. While the park’s glaciers continue to shrink, it is not clear whether these dramatic fluctuations have accelerated or slowed glacier recession and downwasting. In part this is because studies of glaciers in Glacier NP to date have focused on changes in the area of individual glaciers and the extent of glaciers in the park. Few measurements of glacier volume or mass have been made. Measurements of area alone can be misleading; changes in mass and/or ice flux can result in significant changes to the glacier and to streamflow below the glacier even when glacier area remains stable. Though hydrologic changes such as these can have important ecologic effects downstream of the glaciers, the nature and extent of changes in runoff volume, and stream temperature have not been measured or analyzed



Maybe they ought to call it Glacier Moraine National Park.
Quoting Floodman:


LOL...yes, they will be very pointy indeed!


Off-topic discussion! Lol.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Dr. M: Scientific American contacted a random sample of 26 of the 1,400 signatories claiming to have a Ph.D. in a climate related science. Eleven said they agreed with the petition, six said they would not sign the petition today, three did not remember the petition, one had died, and five did not respond.

Wow, I didn't know that.

So throwing out the ones that didn't or couldn't answer, that would be 11 of 17 PhD-holders in a climate-related science that agreed? Wow. ~65%

That is a big difference to that 99.9% of climate scientists blog you posted a year ago, or so.

Of course, they contacted those that signed this petition and had a small sample size, but, wow. Seems not quite everyone is on board with that consensus...

You're not actually serious? They could only confirm that 11 out 30 signatures from self-identified climate scientists. If we extrapolated that to the whole list 1400 self-identified climate scientists, we would end up with something like 600 self-identified scientists confirmed as supporting the Oregon Petition. Of course, it's quite likely that the actual number of PhD's is considerably smaller than the self-identified group but we'll go with 600. So, 600 contrarians out of 20,000 climate scientists worldwide (as per the AGU) comes to a whopping 3%.

I'd feel pretty comfortable calling 97% a consensus.

1025.

No response? I'm not surprised...
1043. NRAamy
1031. flsky 3:06 PM PST on January 26, 2010
Is there any WEATHER going on today???


it just started raining in Southern California.
Wow, am I gonna need body gear to enter these discussions? Good evening everyone.
Quoting Patrap:


Quantifying that is easy as being a Lawyer,

or being a paid witness for the wind vs Water debate,..from a Hurricane Disaster.

..Not many Mammoths were driving Land Rovers by the Billions and pulling oil and coal out the ground and refining it 24/7/365 and well..you may get the pic,you may not.

And the USGS has a view as to whats occurring here,at Glacier National Park.

Glacier Monitoring Studies
Monitoring and Assessing Glacier Changes and Their Associated Hydrologic and Ecologic Effects in Glacier National Park


Purpose:

To systematically monitor changes in Glacier National Park’s namesake glaciers and to determine the causes of changes, assess their ecological and hydrological effects, and predict future changes and effects.
GPS data collection, Sperry Glacier, 2005, USGS Photo

Glacier National Park’s namesake glaciers have receded rapidly since the Park’s establishment in 1910, primarily due to long-term changes in regional and global climate. These changes include warming, particularly of daily minimum temperatures, and persistent droughts. This warming is ongoing and the loss of the Park’s glaciers continues, with the park’s glaciers predicted to disappear by 2030.

In the past decade, Glacier NP has experienced dramatic climate variability that includes record winter and summer droughts, near record summertime temperatures, as well as near-record winter snowfall. While the park’s glaciers continue to shrink, it is not clear whether these dramatic fluctuations have accelerated or slowed glacier recession and downwasting. In part this is because studies of glaciers in Glacier NP to date have focused on changes in the area of individual glaciers and the extent of glaciers in the park. Few measurements of glacier volume or mass have been made. Measurements of area alone can be misleading; changes in mass and/or ice flux can result in significant changes to the glacier and to streamflow below the glacier even when glacier area remains stable. Though hydrologic changes such as these can have important ecologic effects downstream of the glaciers, the nature and extent of changes in runoff volume, and stream temperature have not been measured or analyzed


Giving us a scary pic of what is going on as easy as being a lawyer.

So what are you trying to say? That this glacier is melting away and would not be if we were not here? Or that the rate has increased to more than it would be if there were no CO2 emissions?

I wonder if the melt rate coincides nicely with the PDO. And I suppose no one wants to admit that it might have been receding when we tripped over it in 1910?

Or maybe someone has claimed that Glacier National Park had exactly as much ice on the ground in 1910 as there was 12,000 years ago.

This is such a useless sub-topic...
Pseudo-science begets pseudo-insurance — and another phony attack on the IPCC is debunked
Climate change is the greatest risk facing the insurance industry


limate change is a fact, and it is almost entirely made by man. It is jointly responsible for the rise in severe weather-related natural disasters, since the weather machine is “running in top gear”. The figures speak for themselves: according to data gathered by Munich Re, weather-related natural catastrophes have produced US$ 1,600bn in total losses since 1980, and climate change is definitely a significant contributing factor. We assume that the annual loss amount attributable to climate change is already in the low double-digit billion euro range. And the figure is bound to rise dramatically in future.

Those are the words of the CEO of Munich Re, the world’s largest reinsurer, in December. The anti-science crowd tries to shout down any talk of a link between climate change and extreme weather but even the loudest shouter told the journal Nature back in 2006, “Clearly since 1970 climate change (i.e., defined as by the IPCC to include all sources of change) has shaped the disaster loss record.” Indeed, that Nature article reported four years ago:

At a recent meeting of climate and insurance experts, delegates reached a cautious consensus: climate change is helping to drive the upward trend in catastrophes.

The evidence has only gotten stronger in recent years. A major study published in 2009, “Tropical cyclone losses in the USA and the impact of climate change — A trend analysis based on data from a new approach to adjusting storm losses” concluded:

In the period 1971–2005, since the beginning of a trend towards increased intense cyclone activity, losses excluding socio-economic effects show an annual increase of 4% per annum. This increase must therefore be at least due to the impact of natural climate variability but, more likely than not, also due to anthropogenic forcings.

A 2009 NOAA-led report, Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, identified a number of climate-related impacts that are occurring now and expected to increase in the future that could shape the disaster loss record:

Many phony charges are now being leveled at the IPCC because the anti-science crowd smells blood in the water, and many “journalists” are ready to repeat their nonsense (see “EXCLUSIVE: UN scientist refutes Daily Mail claim he said Himalayan glacier error was politically motivated.”

The newest phony charge came Sunday from another dubious source in the British press, “UN wrongly linked global warming to natural disasters.” But on Monday, the IPCC slammed the story as “misleading and baseless.” As the “IPCC statement on trends in disaster losses” explains

Read full article
http://climateprogress.org/2010/01/26/ipcc-scienceclimate-change-is-the-single-greatest-risk-facing -the-insurance-industry/
1047. Patrap
Lefty brings out the best word of the day.
Consensus among the Mean.


One can beat the subject to death,but there is the warming,..Fact.

There is a driver,Co2 and other Fossil burning derived.. Pollutants,, Fact.

ALL the Climate Modeling recently published show the rate of warming increasing ...

at a faster rate than earlier runs showed.


Three facts to consider when going forward on this thread


And all being the "consensus" of the mean.
Quoting OldLefty19081:

You're not actually serious. They could only confirm that 11 out 30 signatures from self-identified climate scientists. If we extrapolated that to the whole list 1400 self-identified climate scientists, we would end up with something like 600 self-identified scientists confirmed as supporting the Oregon Petition. Of course, it's quite likely that the actual number of PhD's is considerably smaller than the self-identified group but we'll go with 600. So, 600 contrarians out of 20,000 climate scientists worldwide (as per the AGU) comes to a whopping 3%.

I'd feel pretty comfortable calling 97% a consensus.


Oh, you want to assume those that are dead or did not respond (for whatever reason) disagree with the petition...how cozy.

Whatever.
1050. P451
Port-au-Prince, Haiti (CNN) -- A man was pulled from rubble in Haiti on Tuesday, two weeks after a 7.0-magnitude earthquake devastated much of the country, officials said.

The 31-year-old man, who had access to water, was in stable condition at a medical facility where he was being treated for a broken leg, medical and rescue officials told CNN.

The man was discovered by the U.S. Army's 82nd Airborne Delta Company during a rubble-clearing mission in the capital.

1051. hydrus
Quoting Floodman:
1025.

No response? I'm not surprised...
I think Milankovitch had a reasonably solid theory as to why the Ice Ages occurred. But I believe there is more than one reason why Earth goes into a deep freeze.
1052. NRAamy
most of this argument is going so far over my head, I'm getting neck strain trying to look up at it....

and before anyone tells me, "Well, then, why don't you just leave?!", here I go...

P.S. Don't forget to make a donation to Portlight!!!!!!
"And I suppose no one wants to admit that it might have been receding when we tripped over it in 1910?"

Of course, without further data, it's just as likely that those glaciers were expanding up until we tripped over them in 1910. No?
Quoting Patrap:


Yea,,,spoken Like one who's been cashing in on a Certain debate...for how many years now?

Keep it all muddled and Jumbled,,it may work for some,but this dog dont hunt like a Jury Friend.

Yeah, go ahead and throw some baseless accusations, sport. Helping me out a little in my resolve...

I am cashing in. The mumbled and jumbled is every bit of historical data used for "proof", so far.

I love how you guys, like our IPCC friends, know everything and make sure to tell us so, when the reality is, there is so little we know about our climate, it's natural and anthropogenic forcings, and the teleconnections of those forcings.
Quoting OldLefty19081:
"And I suppose no one wants to admit that it might have been receding when we tripped over it in 1910?"

Of course, without further data, it's just as likely that those glaciers were expanding up until we tripped over them in 1910. No?

No. They more likely have been receding since the last ice age. You do know the planet is older than 6000 years, right? And there are some natural fluctuations and the last cold period, called an ice age, was ~11,500 years ago.

One of those breaks in warming occurred in middle 1800s and is called the "little ice age". In 1910, our temps may still have been recovering from that one, too.

So, no, we have been warming, with some breaks for up to 11,500 years, thus, a glacier in Montana is far more likely to have been receding in 1910.
1056. Patrap
Richard Alley on Earth's Biggest Climate Control Knob

Scientists aren't known for being the savviest of public speakers, but Penn State's Richard Alley is that rare researcher who knows how to give a talk. Alley -- who's willing to sing, dance, and gesticulate vigorously to get a point across -- gave a lecture about carbon dioxide to an overflow crowd of scientists at the American Geophysical Union meeting this year that's well worth watching.

Blogger and University of Toronto computer scientist Steve Easterbrook has an excellent blow-by-blow of the talk, but the heart of it came down to this point, which Alley made on his last slide:

An increasing body of science indicates that CO2 has been the most important controller of Earth's climate.

If you want the details, (and the details are a pleasure to sit through in this case because of Alley's gregarious speaking style) AGU has posted video and slides of the full talk. Still want to know more about carbon dioxide? NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) released new details about the distribution of carbon dioxide in the troposphere, the region of Earth's atmosphere that is located between 5 to 12 kilometers, or 3 to 7 miles, above Earth's surface. (JPL also released a ten question quiz about the gas that you can access here).

Meanwhile, Alley participated in a NASA science update back in 2005 that explored the nature of sea level rise, a topic that NASA researchers continue to investigate and that you can explore interactively using our Sea Level Viewer.

--Adam Voiland, NASA's Earth Science News Team
1057. Grothar
Quoting charlottefl:
Wow, am I gonna need body gear to enter these discussions? Good evening everyone.


Smart guy! So how is your weather? Chilly here in Ft. Lauderdale.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Oh, you want to assume those that are dead or did not respond (for whatever reason) disagree with the petition...how cozy.

Whatever.

No, I'm talking about confirmed supporters of the petition. They could only confirm 11 out of 30, or 37%, of their sample. I don't think it would be particularly valid to make any assumptions about the non-respondants.
Quoting OldLefty19081:

No, I'm talking about confirmed supporters of the petition. They could only confirm 11 out of 30, or 37%, of their sample. I don't think it would be particularly valid to make any assumptions about the non-respondants.

That is why I chose 17 total respondents in my post.
"Agree" and "would not sign today" adds up to 17. I did the math for you.

30 includes the non-respondents.
1060. Patrap
School kids verify NASA satellite observations

Most scientific observations are made by the most sophisticated of instruments. We build miles-long particle accelerators to see the smallest bits of atoms. We send bus-sized satellites all the way out to space to observe the dynamic interactions happening in our planet’s atmosphere.

Sometimes, though, a machine just won’t do. Sometimes a school kid looking up at the sky does the job quite well.

That is the premise of NASA’s S’COOL (Students’ Cloud Observations On-Line) project. While a satellite passes overhead observing the radiation emitted by Earth, S’COOL participants look upwards and take careful notes on the type and multitude of clouds in the sky.

This is not just for fun, and it's not just to get children and teens interested in the basics of atmospheric science. These observations are put to use by NASA scientists to verify that a satellite instrument overhead – the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) sensor – is accurately observing clouds from above. In some cases, CERES’ radiometers may interpret a glare or a land feature as a cloud. Student observations act as a “ground truthing” method to make sure the satellite is accurate.

The more observations, the better. In this regard, the gold star goes to the students at Chartiers-Houston Jr./Sr. High School in Houston, Pa. These students have made more than 5,000 all-time observations for the S’COOL folks at NASA’s Langley Research Center. (5,276 observations as of Jan.10, to be exact.) The number is a record and nearly the doubles the total reported by any other school.

The S’COOL program is beginning its 14th year and has inspired school children in more than 75 countries to take their cloud charts outside. Chartiers-Houston has long been among the most active in the program. Students can make observations anytime, but ideally they walk outside at the precise time that the satellite is passing over their town. They must know the types of clouds and know the recording methods to make useful observations. This requires, in other words, dedication.

Science teacher Gary Popiolkowski, who’s been leading students outside to look skyward since Aug. 2000, said he likes S’COOL because it allows students to get “involved doing real science, acting like real scientists.” He said his students even make observations after school and on weekends, on their own time.

“My students have developed a sense of pride in continuing our observations over the years,” he said. “Besides recording the scheduled observations, we also identify the clouds each period throughout the day as a daily class starter. S’COOL is integrated into our weather unit and fits into my philosophy of “no child left inside” as we constantly “look up” anytime we are outside.”

-- Patrick Lynch, NASA's Earth Science News Team
Quoting atmoaggie:
Dr. M: Scientific American contacted a random sample of 26 of the 1,400 signatories claiming to have a Ph.D. in a climate related science. Eleven said they agreed with the petition, six said they would not sign the petition today, three did not remember the petition, one had died, and five did not respond.

Wow, I didn't know that.

So throwing out the ones that didn't or couldn't answer, that would be 11 of 17 PhD-holders in a climate-related science that agreed? Wow. ~65%

That is a big difference to that 99.9% of climate scientists blog you posted a year ago, or so.

Of course, they contacted those that signed this petition and had a small sample size, but, wow. Seems not quite everyone is on board with that consensus...


Hi, keep in mind that a portion of those 65% were likely fooled by the letter accompanying the Petition, signed by the former president of the National Academy of Sciences. The letter was laid out to look like a peer-reviewed journal article from the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, but was a fake that presented only the anti-global warming point of view.

The study I discussed appeared in the journal EOS, Transactions, American Geophysical Union. Fully 97% of the climate scientists who regularly publish on climate change agreed with the statement, "human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures".

I agree that we should not ignore the fact that there are a number of smart Ph.D.'s that are good scientists who do not agree with the IPCC position on climate change.

Jeff Masters
Quoting P451:
Port-au-Prince, Haiti (CNN) -- A man was pulled from rubble in Haiti on Tuesday, two weeks after a 7.0-magnitude earthquake devastated much of the country, officials said.

The 31-year-old man, who had access to water, was in stable condition at a medical facility where he was being treated for a broken leg, medical and rescue officials told CNN.

The man was discovered by the U.S. Army's 82nd Airborne Delta Company during a rubble-clearing mission in the capital.



That's incredible...Haitains have a hard bark on 'em, that's for sure!
Quoting atmoaggie:

No. They more likely have been receding since the last ice age. You do know the planet is older than 6000 years, right? And there are some natural fluctuations and the last cold period, called an ice age, was ~11,500 years ago.

One of those breaks in warming occurred in middle 1800s and is called the "little ice age". In 1910, our temps may still have been recovering from that one, too.

So, no, we have been warming, with some breaks, since then, thus, a glacier in Montana is far more likely to have been receding in 1910.

So then the shrinking of the glaciers in Glacier NP is likely a result of a warming climate?

Seems like that's what folks have been saying.

1064. Patrap
There is a Lot more to Knowing what occurred in the Past than Quoting this and that as one feels fit to "Glove" their point,..

..case in point,below

The Mysteries of Muck (and the Collapse of the Laurentide Ice Sheet)

Posted on Jan 14, 2010 04:05:03 AM | NASA's Earth Science News Team | 2 Comments


Peteet isn't poking around in the mud just for fun like my brothers and I did as kids, though. She's collecting bog cores and scrutinizing the bits of fossilized plants and animals, which can be dated quite precisely using radiocarbon techniques, that turn up in the cores. Her goal is to pinpoint the timing of the collapse of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, a massive block of ice that stretched as far as Long Island during the peak of the last ice age. With Arctic ice currently undergoing rapid retreat, sorting out how the Laurentide Ice Sheet collapsed has big implications for understanding how climate change might proceed.

By analyzing material from some of the first creatures to colonize glacial lakes after the ice retreated, such as those water fleas, Peetet can estimate the date the ice sheet collapsed. Her findings suggests that the collapse occurred about 15,000 years ago, which would put it five-to-ten thousand years later than other dating techniques (particularly one influential technique that involves dating the beryllium from boulders dropped by the retreating ice sheet).

"This was surprising, and it's generated some controversy," she told her colleagues. "I'd like to have your ideas about what's going on." To learn more about the topic, you can watch, listen, or view a pdf of Peetet's full presentation here.

Share your stories about exploring the muck in your neighborhood, your ideas on the dating controversy, and we'll make sure that Peteet sees them and posts a reply.


I'm gonna chime in here, and this is not my argument FOR or AGAINST GW. It's an observation. Micro scale atmospheric events such as tornadoes, hurricanes, severe storms challenge us in their complexity. There is still much we don't understand about these events, and that's on a micro scale. To take such a concrete position on macro climate events that involve the mechanisms that drive our global climate, to say that we are CERTAIN of what is driving our apparent change in climate, and to ignore healthy discussion on the subject is presumptuous at best. I'm not saying to just AGREE with each other, just being willing to listen to the other point of view.(regardless of which side you fall on) It will benefit everyone.
Quoting charlottefl:
I'm gonna chime in here, and this is not my argument FOR or AGAINST GW. It's an observation. Micro scale atmospheric events such as tornadoes, hurricanes, severe storms challenge us in their complexity. There is still much we don't understand about these events, and that's on a micro scale. To take such a concrete position on macro climate events that involve the mechanisms that drive our global climate, to say that we are CERTAIN of what is driving our apparent change in climate, and to ignore healthy discussion on the subject is presumptuous at best. I'm not saying to just AGREE with each other, just to be willing to listen to the other point of view (regardless of which side you fall on) will benefit everyone.

Than tell me charlotte, what point of view - which is opposit to the scientific consensus on climate change i should listen too, which not has been debunked?
here's my take

Quoting atmoaggie:

That is why I chose 17 total respondents in my post.
"Agree" and "would not sign today" adds up to 17. I did the math for you.

30 includes the non-respondents.


OK, have it your way. We'll only consider those that respond. If we extrapolate from the Scientific American numbers, we'd have 793 respondents from the 1400 self-identified PhD's on the petition. 65% of 793 leaves a total 515 confirmed as supporting the Oregon Petition.

Happy now?
1069. Grothar
Quoting charlottefl:
I'm gonna chime in here, and this is not my argument FOR or AGAINST GW. It's an observation. Micro scale atmospheric events such as tornadoes, hurricanes, severe storms challenge us in their complexity. There is still much we don't understand about these events, and that's on a micro scale. To take such a concrete position on macro climate events that involve the mechanisms that drive our global climate, to say that we are CERTAIN of what is driving our apparent change in climate, and to ignore healthy discussion on the subject is presumptuous at best. I'm not saying to just AGREE with each other, just to being willing to listen to the other point of view (regardless of which side you fall on) will benefit everyone.


You haven't been on here long, have you?
1070. Patrap
Im gonna go create a Micro Cauldron of Boiling H2o and Zatarains Seafood Burl and drop some Jumbo Large Shrimp into it and see if my Kitchen Temps rise in relation to my anticipation of eating dem sucka's..

I may even take pics and publish a peer reviewed entry on it.

Stay tuned,..
Wow.... more MIRACLES.
: )
Quoting Floodman:


That's incredible...Haitains have a hard bark on 'em, that's for sure!
Pat,

You just made my day! ROFL
Quoting Patrap:
Im gonna go create a Micro Cauldron of Boiling H2o and Zatarains Seafood Burl and drop some Jumbo Large Shrimp into it and see if my Kitchen Temps rise in relation to my anticipation of eating dem sucka's..

I may even take pics and publish a peer reviewed entry on it.

Stay tuned,..
Quoting charlottefl:
I'm gonna chime in here, and this is not my argument FOR or AGAINST GW. It's an observation. Micro scale atmospheric events such as tornadoes, hurricanes, severe storms challenge us in their complexity. There is still much we don't understand about these events, and that's on a micro scale. To take such a concrete position on macro climate events that involve the mechanisms that drive our global climate, to say that we are CERTAIN of what is driving our apparent change in climate, and to ignore healthy discussion on the subject is presumptuous at best. I'm not saying to just AGREE with each other, just being willing to listen to the other point of view.(regardless of which side you fall on) It will benefit everyone.


Currently, it appears as if the micro-scale and macro-scale events are co-reinforcing. Global ocean currents are collapsing.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Yeah, go ahead and throw some baseless accusations, sport. Helping me out a little in my resolve...

I am cashing in. The mumbled and jumbled is every bit of historical data used for "proof", so far.

I love how you guys, like our IPCC friends, know everything and make sure to tell us so, when the reality is, there is so little we know about our climate, it's natural and anthropogenic forcings, and the teleconnections of those forcings.


atmo, you and I have had this "argument" before and I respect your opinions given your firm grounding in science and your even disposition, but even you say: "...there is so little we know about our climate..." I wonder how you can be so totally skeptical of the whole CC idea; if you admit we know very little about it, what makes the anti-CC side that much more convincing for you?

By the way, the little ice-age you mention was caused in large part by the eruption of Tambora in 1815; it caused the "year without a summer" in the northern hemisphere and caused a substantial drop in global temperature...
1075. Patrap
Sometimes BF,Levity is the Ointment of Brevity..

Plus Im learning to take a break when the monomania set in here too

..LOL
Quoting Patrap:
Im gonna go create a Micro Cauldron of Boiling H2o and Zatarains Seafood Burl and drop some Jumbo Large Shrimp into it and see if my Kitchen Temps rise in relation to my anticipation of eating dem sucka's..

I may even take pics and publish a peer reviewed entry on it.

Stay tuned,..


Argh. I cannot write a peer-reviewed entry on the current state of global warming because I don't have the prestigious university credentials.
Quoting Patrap:
Im gonna go create a Micro Cauldron of Boiling H2o and Zatarains Seafood Burl and drop some Jumbo Large Shrimp into it and see if my Kitchen Temps rise in relation to my anticipation of eating dem sucka's..

I may even take pics and publish a peer reviewed entry on it.

Stay tuned,..


I can make a prediction: you are going to feel over-full shortly...LOL
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
here's my take
Good take but you might have too add another 3 zero digits to the timespan ;/
1079. Patrap


Im keeping one eye on the Miami meteogram for Feb 7th


Did anyone hear were going to da Super Bowl ?
Quoting charlottefl:
I'm gonna chime in here, and this is not my argument FOR or AGAINST GW. It's an observation. Micro scale atmospheric events such as tornadoes, hurricanes, severe storms challenge us in their complexity. There is still much we don't understand about these events, and that's on a micro scale. To take such a concrete position on macro climate events that involve the mechanisms that drive our global climate, to say that we are CERTAIN of what is driving our apparent change in climate, and to ignore healthy discussion on the subject is presumptuous at best. I'm not saying to just AGREE with each other, just being willing to listen to the other point of view.(regardless of which side you fall on) It will benefit everyone.


Ahhh...a reasoned voice...be careful here; you could be severly pummeled (I have)

Your points are good and echo my own...
As a reader of Anthony Watts I can tell you why he doesn't comment on the study you mention. There is no disagreement about what temperatures were doing in the last 30 years although when you get to composite ad hoc compilations that reach further back or forward there is a lot of disagreement. So modern high tech temperature measurements doesn't really tell us anything yet. The satelite information is just getting useful.

As an engineer, I side with the solar forcing theories and skeptics like Willy Soon. For medium term cycles I like Landscheidt and variations of the Planetary Tidal influences on Solar Activity. As a side note, Watts dislikes and refuses to give print to this theory as well, preferring a more direct solar influence and newer theories about energy transport or the solar wind/magnetosphere/cloud/cosmic ray line of enquiry.

I think the paleo temperature record bears out my suspicions as well. It's all about the Sun, and ocean influences as Joe Bastardi and the successful AO blocking predictions that embarrassed modellers over Christmas.

Politically, the selection of stations is probably the bigger story right now as Joseph D'Aleo has illustrated. The noise outside North America has been the Himilayan Glacier exaggeration. For me, I'm just watching this Solar Grand Minimum unfold and Weather Underground has the tools to do it.
Okay, kids...I'm out...

Remember Portlight, serving the disabled surviors of disasters; we have made some substantial strides in Haiti and we need your help!
Evening everyone. I'm working from home tonight, so I'm not likely to be in here constantly. Wish I had the time to read through all the discussion since last night - 1000+ posts on the blog at the end of January!

Quoting Floodman:


That's incredible...Haitains have a hard bark on 'em, that's for sure!
They've had to, haven't they? :o) This is some good news for at least one family, and must have been very uplifting to the workers who would have been energized by the discovery....
Fiji Metorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F
9:00 AM FST January 27 2010
=============================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 05F (1000 hPa) located at 19.0S 174.5W is reported as moving southeast at 15 knots. Position POOR based on multisat visible with animation and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Organization has slightly improved in the last 24 hours. Convection has not increased or deepened much. 05F lies to the south of the 250 HPA ridge axis region and along a monsoonal trough in a moderately sheared environment. Outflow good to the north but restricted elsewhere. Northwest deep layer mean winds is expected to steer TD 05F southeast into an area o decreasing shear in the next 24 hours

Most global models is slowly developing the system and move it southeast.

Potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours is MODERATE
Quoting Patrap:


Did anyone hear were going to da Super Bowl ?


Who dat?
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
Good take but you might have too add another 3 zero digits to the timespan ;/


Actually, all there of those are possible in Australia (which is the place it looks like the picture was taken or edited from), within 15 years.
Olga is back. I think it has the potential to turn into a category 4 (SSHS) cyclone before it makes landfall in the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria.

Since I've gotten a couple of emails about the topic, I'll bring it up here.

My comments earlier were in no way meant to disparage Dr. Masters in any way. He's a brilliant man and he knows a lot about tropical weather. I just wish he showed both sides of the coin instead of only using the side he agrees with. I know it's his blog and he can come on here and say that if we drink kool-aid we'll all cure global warming. I don't have to believe everything I read, even if it does come from a PhD. His expertise is tropical weather.

I wouldn't go to a foot doctor to ask him about my eye. Yeah, both are doctors, but one has expertise in the area another does not.

END RANT
The southeastern part of the warm water toungue, producing the reformation of the El Nino-Humbodlt cut-off in Chile (near the location of the 1960 Valdivia earthquake), is now strengthening and moving southeast. The warmest water temperatures in this area stand at 3.5C above normal, and it is taking the combined energy of the ENSO warm pool and the South Pacific warm anomaly bulge. If the warm tounge reaches the Chilean coast, the Humbodlt could become completely cut off at its source, which did not happen the last time a similar scenario occured (in early January, with warmest anomalies in the tounge close to 1C and it came close to cutting off the current before it rebounded, yet it still managed to cause a 3C rise in temperatures at the cut-off zone in one week.

Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
Good take but you might have too add another 3 zero digits to the timespan ;/
how about this one

1094. hydrus
Quoting CaneWarning:
Since I've gotten a couple of emails about the topic, I'll bring it up here.

My comments earlier were in no way meant to disparage Dr. Masters in any way. He's a brilliant man and he knows a lot about tropical weather. I just wish he showed both sides of the coin instead of only using the side he agrees with. I know it's his blog and he can come on here and say that if we drink kool-aid we'll all cure global warming. I don't have to believe everything I read, even if it does come from a PhD. His expertise is tropical weather.

I wouldn't go to a foot doctor to ask him about my eye. Yeah, both are doctors, but one has expertise in the area another does not.

END RANT
I understand your point here. But his expertise in meteorology goes well beyond the tropics.
Quoting CaneWarning:
Since I've gotten a couple of emails about the topic, I'll bring it up here.

My comments earlier were in no way meant to disparage Dr. Masters in any way. He's a brilliant man and he knows a lot about tropical weather. I just wish he showed both sides of the coin instead of only using the side he agrees with. I know it's his blog and he can come on here and say that if we drink kool-aid we'll all cure global warming. I don't have to believe everything I read, even if it does come from a PhD. His expertise is tropical weather.

I wouldn't go to a foot doctor to ask him about my eye. Yeah, both are doctors, but one has expertise in the area another does not.

END RANT


One doesn't need to be an expert in climate to know about climate change. The issue is that important. And even seasoned scientists make mistakes.
1094 & 1095, I guess we can agree to disagree. Let me also note that when Dr. Gray released his findings on the subject, many here rejected him because he was a tropical expert.
1097. Patrap
Do you have any Idea what those foot doctors make?

And no Tropical Modeling Tech to keep up with,...

And the Nurse's and Cars and Conventions in Milwaukee.
Quoting CaneWarning:
1094 & 1095, I guess we can agree to disagree. Let me also note that when Dr. Gray released his findings on the subject, many here rejected him because he was a tropical expert.


The other one is a climate skeptic and I think AGW exists. LOL.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Fiji Metorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F
9:00 AM FST January 27 2010
=============================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 05F (1000 hPa) located at 19.0S 174.5W is reported as moving southeast at 15 knots. Position POOR based on multisat visible with animation and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Organization has slightly improved in the last 24 hours. Convection has not increased or deepened much. 05F lies to the south of the 250 HPA ridge axis region and along a monsoonal trough in a moderately sheared environment. Outflow good to the north but restricted elsewhere. Northwest deep layer mean winds is expected to steer TD 05F southeast into an area o decreasing shear in the next 24 hours

Most global models is slowly developing the system and move it southeast.

Potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours is MODERATE


That storm is heading out into the gap between the ENSO warm pool and the South Pacific warm anomaly. That alone is bad enough, and it will send more El Nino warmth into the Ross ice shelf. However, if it or its remnants make it to the Chilean southeastern tongue, what happens there is so bad that...well you don't wanna know.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
how about this one


It is not that bad (pretty much current situation), but before everything turns into ashes the sceptics would stop argueing(for several reason).

I think we are at this point now. They wasted all their bullets.

Imagine a house which burns and someone constantly is fueling the fire.
The scientist says stop fueling the fire - and let's start blowing the flames out.

The denier says constantly, "no" - "no" it is not the fuel which is the cause of the fire - the scientist has it all wrong - don't you see this?

Other people in the room listen to both but they start to see the flames reaching through the walls, ceilings and doors and have problems breathing.

We have now reached the point where the people in the room are actualy starting to listen to the scientist.
1101. Drakoen
Climate models are forecasting for the ENSO to go to neutral for the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Sea-Surface temperature forecasts show above average temperatures in the MDR with the hottest spot being the Caribbean. The extent of the 26C isotherm is more widespread across the Atlantic Basin than in recent years which can be attributed to a strongly negative NAO slackening the tradewinds. Conditions favor an active Intertropical Convergence Zone and anomalously higher precipitation.


EUROSIP:
1102. Patrap


Dr Masters discussing Cyclone Nargis that struck Myanmar in 2008

Drak, your post is causing some sort of popup.
1104. Patrap
[PDF]
Extended Range Forecast for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2010



Extended Range Forecast for Atlantic
Hurricane Activity in 2010
Issued: 7th December 2009
by Dr Adam Lea and Professor Mark Saunders
Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre, UCL (University College London), UK
Forecast Summary
TSR predicts an active Atlantic hurricane season in 2010. Users should note that the
precision of TSR’s extended range outlooks for Atlantic hurricane
activity between 1980 and 2009 is low.

1105. Drakoen
Quoting CaneWarning:
Drak, your post is causing some sort of popup.


It's probably the Glosea image which requires a password. I'll delete that one.
Quoting Drakoen:


It's probably the Glosea image which requires a password. I'll delete that one.


Thanks!
1107. Patrap
It be gone..cool
1108. hydrus
Quoting CaneWarning:
1094 & 1095, I guess we can agree to disagree. Let me also note that when Dr. Gray released his findings on the subject, many here rejected him because he was a tropical expert.
The fact that he is a tropical expert should be acknowledged, but to discount his opinion on Global Warming because he specializes in a certain area of meteorology is ridiculous . jmo
Quoting Drakoen:
Climate models are forecasting for the ENSO to go to neutral for the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Sea-Surface temperature forecasts show above average temperatures in the MDR with the hottest spot being the Caribbean. The extent of the 26C isotherm is more widespread across the Atlantic Basin than in recent years which can be attributed to a strongly negative NAO slackening the tradewinds. Conditions favor an active Intertropical Convergence Zone and anomalously higher precipitation.


EUROSIP:


Notice that in the mid-Atlantic, the 20C isotherms are actually FLAT. This indicates a slowing of ocean currents.
CaneWarning~ Dr Masters' Ph.D. is in air pollution meteorology. Do you believe him when he say's how many people are killed & sickened by the air pollution from burning coal & oil each year, in the USA?
This is again 384 hours off, but it'll be interesting to see how this storm plays out for S. Ontario. If the storm stalls right over us due to the blocking high then we could see a record-breaker!

Woah! And it looks like we'll drop below -20C on the night of February 6 - 7:

Saying that many reject Dr Gray on climate because of his expertise in storm prediction is incorrect. He is rejected because he has no desire to discus or engage in climate research on a technical level - as stated by him. He makes incorrect statements and references to past climate data and does not "believe" in the capability of climate models.
Georgia, Carolinas Most at Risk for Hurricane Hit, WSI Says

Jan. 26 (Bloomberg) -- The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season will be more active than last year, with the Georgia and Carolina coasts most at risk for a direct hit, forecaster WSI Corp. said today.

WSI’s outlook calls for 13 named storms, seven of them hurricanes and three of them of major, at Category 3 intensity or higher. There were nine named storms in 2009, the fewest in 12 years, and three of them became hurricanes.

“The previous five El Nino events have all been followed by significant increases in tropical activity the following summer,” he said. “Our current forecast numbers are more likely to be adjusted upwards rather than downwards as we get closer to the season.”
But....but....but....everyone knows hurricanes don't hit Georgia! :P
1116. Greyelf
Quoting Tazmanian:
231-mph NH wind gust is no longer world's fastest

First the Old Man, now the Big Wind.

New Hampshire's Mount Washington has lost its distinction as the site of the fastest wind gust ever recorded on Earth, officials at the Mount Washington Observatory said Tuesday.

The concession came three days after the World Meteorological Organization posted a snippet on its Web site saying a panel of experts reviewing extreme weather and climate data turned up a 253 mph gust on Australia's Barrow Island during Cyclone Olivia in 1996.

That tops the 231 mph record set atop Mount Washington on April 12, 1934.

And... CycloneOz probably was there for both records standing outside with his handheld and taking video.


(Sorry for replying so late to this, but I had to add something I thought of when reading this as I was going back a few pages back to catch up...)
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Georgia, Carolinas Most at Risk for Hurricane Hit, WSI Says

Jan. 26 (Bloomberg) -- The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season will be more active than last year, with the Georgia and Carolina coasts most at risk for a direct hit, forecaster WSI Corp. said today.

WSI’s outlook calls for 13 named storms, seven of them hurricanes and three of them of major, at Category 3 intensity or higher. There were nine named storms in 2009, the fewest in 12 years, and three of them became hurricanes.

“The previous five El Nino events have all been followed by significant increases in tropical activity the following summer,” he said. “Our current forecast numbers are more likely to be adjusted upwards rather than downwards as we get closer to the season.”


Hmm. What about New York City? Practically downstream from the Carolinas.
1118. hydrus
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
But....but....but....everyone knows hurricanes don't hit Georgia! :P
It has been a while since yall had a direct hit. But Georgia has had plenty of bad weather.
2004 was an El Nino Modoki year. 2005 was a warm neutral year. Both years were active and devastating in the Atlantic basin, and it looks like 2010 will be a combination of the two factors, with Modoki El Nino and a disruption of global ocean currents.
1120. aquak9
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
But....but....but....everyone knows hurricanes don't hit Georgia! :P


they don't hit Jacksonville, either, heh heh heh
hydrus I know--I did a huge history of Georgia hurricanes on my blog last August, September, and October.

Hi aquak9 :) I think it is safe to come out now. Think you will freeze?
1122. hydrus
Quoting aquak9:


they don't hit Jacksonville, either, heh heh heh
We all know some day it will happen. he he he he . And it will be a big mess. Naturally I hope it does not.
1123. aquak9
hi SSI! yes, back to flip-flops and a t-shirt.

Eeeek! in the upper thirties this week...it's all gravy after what we've already been thru.

Hydrus- '04 was horrid for Florida. Wouldn't wish it on anyone ever. Really, I shouldn't tempt fate.
1124. hydrus
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
hydrus I know--I did a huge history of Georgia hurricanes on my blog last August, September, and October.

Hi aquak9 :) I think it is safe to come out now. Think you will freeze?
Georgia has had some strong hurricanes. They strike you after moving across the panhandle while still retaining a lot of strength. Not many strikes along the Atlantic shore because of the small amount of coastline.
The format of the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory is changing for 2010

In order to improve the readability and utility of the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory (TCP), the format of the product is changing in 2010. The most significant changes are:

The TCP will be organized into sections. Within these sections, keywords will be used to assist the human eye and computer software to find specific information more readily.

The summary (or "repeat") section of the advisory will move to the top of the product, immediately following the headline.

The summary section will contain more information than it did previously.

Watch and warning information will be organized differently and be presented in list or bullet form.
1126. hydrus
Quoting aquak9:
hi SSI! yes, back to flip-flops and a t-shirt.

Eeeek! in the upper thirties this week...it's all gravy after what we've already been thru.

Hydrus- '04 was horrid for Florida. Wouldn't wish it on anyone ever. Really, I shouldn't tempt fate.
Yes it was. I was living in S.W. Florida then. I will not type my feelings about 2004.
Quoting Floodman:


atmo, you and I have had this "argument" before and I respect your opinions given your firm grounding in science and your even disposition, but even you say: "...there is so little we know about our climate..." I wonder how you can be so totally skeptical of the whole CC idea; if you admit we know very little about it, what makes the anti-CC side that much more convincing for you?

By the way, the little ice-age you mention was caused in large part by the eruption of Tambora in 1815; it caused the "year without a summer" in the northern hemisphere and caused a substantial drop in global temperature...

Personally, I take issue with those that portend to know what we do not. Simple as that.

And that applies to all of the if A, then B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, and J, when A isn't well understood.

Additionally, in science, a numerical result with a standard deviation larger than half the magnitude of the values themselves is not acceptable. I myself had a paper rejected because of this. This scenario, however, fits with a fair portion of our long-term surface records, historical reconstructions, and supposed effects. On the short-term, as you are aware, the better datasets are too short to tell us much, especially when it comes to attribution.
And the Nurse's and Cars and Conventions in Milwaukee.

Home of the "Beast?" P-tooey, Blech, yuck...

I'll have what you're having, and thank you!
Quoting hydrus:
Yes it was. I was living in S.W. Florida then. I will not type my feelings about 2004.


You mean 200*? :) (Was in Port Charlotte during Charley, I totally understand)
1130. Xyrus
Quoting charlottefl:
I'm gonna chime in here, and this is not my argument FOR or AGAINST GW. It's an observation. Micro scale atmospheric events such as tornadoes, hurricanes, severe storms challenge us in their complexity. There is still much we don't understand about these events, and that's on a micro scale. To take such a concrete position on macro climate events that involve the mechanisms that drive our global climate, to say that we are CERTAIN of what is driving our apparent change in climate, and to ignore healthy discussion on the subject is presumptuous at best. I'm not saying to just AGREE with each other, just being willing to listen to the other point of view.(regardless of which side you fall on) It will benefit everyone.


It's easier to deal with macro events than micro events. Much much easier.

For example, let's say I give you a perfectly spherical balloon along with some useful physical information about it (coefficient of elasticity, current temperature, etc.).

Now let's heat that balloon up by 1 degree. Can you tell where in that balloon molecule 3,200,000 is? Impossible, even if given the exact starting conditions of every air molecule in the balloon.

But what if I asked you to tell me how big the balloon would be? A little basic high school physics and you could tell me with a decent level of accuracy how big the balloon would get with a 1 degree increase of temperature.

It's pretty simple to create a model of this balloon based on those basic physics, and it would be as accurate as you want to make it. However, trying to model every single molecule in the balloon as well as the balloon material itself is a far more difficult task and is practically impossible unless you're dealing with a relatively small number of molecules (and a very small balloon).

Climate models are similar. While a meteorological model NEEDS to deal with small scale phenomena (thunderstorms, hurricanes) on short time scales to make useful predictions, climate models look at averages over longer timescales. In other words, climate models are trying to model the balloon using generalization and abstraction, while meteorological models are trying to model the balloon by simulating every molecular interaction. One of these is much easier to do.

~X~
Quoting Xyrus:


It's easier to deal with macro events than micro events. Much much easier.

For example, let's say I give you a perfectly spherical balloon along with some useful physical information about it (coefficient of elasticity, current temperature, etc.).

Now let's heat that balloon up by 1 degree. Can you tell where in that balloon molecule 3,200,000 is? Impossible, even if given the exact starting conditions of every air molecule in the balloon.

But what if I asked you to tell me how big the balloon would be? A little basic high school physics and you could tell me with a decent level of accuracy how big the balloon would get with a 1 degree increase of temperature.

It's pretty simple to create a model of this balloon based on those basic physics, and it would be as accurate as you want to make it. However, trying to model every single molecule in the balloon as well as the balloon material itself is a far more difficult task and is practically impossible unless you're dealing with a relatively small number of molecules (and a very small balloon).

Climate models are similar. While a meteorological model NEEDS to deal with small scale phenomena (thunderstorms, hurricanes) on short time scales to make useful predictions, climate models look at averages over longer timescales. In other words, climate models are trying to model the balloon using generalization and abstraction, while meteorological models are trying to model the balloon by simulating every molecular interaction. One of these is much easier to do.

~X~


To be honest, I meant what I said, but that post was more about being civil to each other than anything else. Thanks for your explanation. :)
Quoting atmoaggie:

Personally, I take issue with those that portend to know what we do not. Simple as that.

And that applies to all of the if A, then B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, and J, when A isn't well understood.

Additionally, in science, a numerical result with a standard deviation larger than half the magnitude of the values themselves is not acceptable. I myself had a paper rejected because of this. This scenario, however, fits with a fair portion of our long-term surface records, historical reconstructions, and supposed effects. On the short-term, as you are aware, the better datasets are too short to tell us much, especially when it comes to attribution.


In light of there being no other viable alternative you have certain degrees of error.

Also you would do well to at least familiarize yourself with the atmospheric chemistry behind it.

Lafayette, Purdue University Airport
Lat: 40.43 Lon: -86.93 Elev: 623
Last Update on Jan 26, 8:54 pm EST

Overcast

19 °F
(-7 °C)
Humidity: 71 %
Wind Speed: W 15 G 28 MPH
Barometer: 30.12" (1020.9 mb)
Dewpoint: 11 °F (-12 °C)
Wind Chill: 5 °F (-15 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
Additionally, in science, a numerical result with a standard deviation larger than half the magnitude of the values themselves is not acceptable.

Now I'm scared...I'm starting to understand Atmo. I learned this at ... U.Md!
1135. hydrus
Quoting charlottefl:


You mean 200*? :) (Was in Port Charlotte during Charley, I totally understand)
I was living near the Town Center Mall.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
And since you brought up STL today atmo I hope you were not involved in that continual harassment of him.

He was a good poster to have here and it was a shame he had to leave. People harassed him constantly with nonsense.


shew, boy do I know how he feels!
Quoting hydrus:
I was living near the Town Center Mall.


I was in St. Joseph's hospital. It was NOT fun. The place was wrecked when everything calmed down.
Quoting Skyepony:
CaneWarning~ Dr Masters' Ph.D. is in air pollution meteorology. Do you believe him when he say's how many people are killed & sickened by the air pollution from burning coal & oil each year, in the USA?

Interesting. I had forgotten that.

If I had continued onward into grad school, I might possibly have done the same. As it is, I took a number of extra courses in air pollution meteorology and atmo chem.

The paper I referenced in 1127, was resubmitted to another journal (supposedly reworked, but not that I can tell). It was about measuring the concentration of a trace gas by it's IR absorption signature in a couple of very specific wavelengths. The gas, COClF is generated in the stratosphere from the free chlorine radical that comes from CFCs. This gas is the removal mechanism, as it is stable enough to get mixed back down to tropospheric levels, is soluble with water, and will precipitate with rainfall. The limiting factor is the fluorine.

The paper: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6TVR-4MJJMXJ-2&_user=10&_coverDate=07%2F3 1%2F2007&_rdoc=1&_fmt=high&_orig=search&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_searchStrId=1181679843&_rerunOri gin=google&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=c716b16fb32c3f4c803564aa5a4cad09

Rinsland C.P., Nassar R., Boone C.D., Bernath P., Chiou L., Weisenstein D.K., Mahieu E., Zander R.
Spectroscopic detection of COClF in the tropical and mid-latitude lower stratosphere
(2007) Journal of Quantitative Spectroscopy and Radiative Transfer, 105 (3), pp. 467-475.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
And since you brought up STL today atmo I hope you were not involved in that continual harassment of him.

He was a good poster to have here and it was a shame he had to leave. People harassed him constantly with nonsense. I only heard he had been banned.

People that actually reference their beliefs and are open and extreemly well versed on weather phenomena are few and far between.

I actually iggied him some months before his disappearance...about the time he got nasty towards others.
Quoting JFLORIDA:


In light of there being no other viable alternative you have certain degrees of error.

Also you would do well to at least familiarize yourself with the atmospheric chemistry behind it.


LOL. Maybe someday I'll do that...
Quoting atmoaggie:

LOL. Maybe someday I'll do that...


LOL you better get right on that Atmo
1143. hydrus
Quoting charlottefl:


I was in St. Joseph's hospital. It was NOT fun. The place was wrecked when everything calmed down.
I lived on Gertrude ave in the 1980,s right across from there. I saw the hospital after the storm. It was awful bad.
Deadly Cold

The wave of Arctic air from Siberia hit Russia on 16 January and has not relented since, with temperatures plummeting to minus 31 degrees Celsius (minus 24 Fahrenheit) yesterday night. According to Moscow's weather forecasting service, this is the lowest recorded temperature on this date since 1927.

The mercury dropped still lower in Siberia. In Yamalo-Nenetsk Autonomous Okrug, the temperature plummeted to minus 61 degrees Celsius (minus 78 Fahrenheit), an all-time record low there.

The painfully cold temperatures have reportedly killed at least 31 people in European Russia since 16 January. Most of the casualties were among the homeless, despite an order by authorities to allow homeless people to sleep in train and metro stations.

Animals in zoos across Russia are being given shots, or in some cases buckets, of vodka to keep them warm.

But even in homes, heat is not always guaranteed. Thousands of people were temporarily left without heat in several Russian regions after central heating pipes burst.

Energy Conservation

The cold spell has put huge pressure on Russia's power system -- the electricity monopoly Unified Energy Systems said yesterday that electricity use has reached a 15-year high this week.

Amid fears of a massive power blackout, Moscow authorities have established what they called a "strict" energy-conservation regime, including forced power cutbacks to some 250 nonessential companies in the region.
Amid fears of a massive power blackout, Moscow authorities have established what they called a "strict" energy-conservation regime, including forced power cutbacks.

Electricity, for instance, has been cut back in casinos, gaming halls, billboard advertisements, and at construction sites that use powerful floodlights for nighttime work. Moscow Mayor Yury Luzhkov has also called on employers to let their staffs have today and tomorrow off in order to save energy.

To cope with the exceptional energy demand at home, Russia yesterday reduced oil and gas supplies to Europe, and Industry and Energy Minister Viktor Khristenko said he had sent the prime minister a proposal to tap into the country's strategic fuel reserves.

Temperatures are expected to ease over the next few days, but Russians are already bracing for the next cold wave -- meteorologists predict that another deep freeze will follow early next week and could last until the end of the month
http://www.rferl.org/content/article/1064876.html
1145. Greyelf
Ok, nevermind. I tried adding a little levity with my CycloneOz reference in post 1116, but the headbutters are too busy doing what they do.

Sorry to have interrupted. Come out of your corners and continue thinly veiled insults and snide comments when you hear the ding.

*ding!*
At 9:30 am CST, Tropical Low, Former Olga (998 hPa) located at 16.1S 137.4E or located 115 kms east of Borroloola and 205 kms west northwest of Mornington Island, has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving northwest at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/ 25HRS

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga is currently located near the coast and is expected to move northwest, remaining close to the coast. Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga is expected to redevelop over water near the coast tonight or early tomorrow.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between the NT/Qld Border and Cape Shield, including Groote Eylandt, tonight or early Thursday. Destructive winds with gusts to 125 kilometers per hour between Port Roper and the NT border may develop during Thurday if the cyclone intensifies quickly. GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may extend as far east as Burketown in Queensland, including Mornington Island, during tonight or ealry Thursday if the developing cyclone takes a more northward track.

HEAVY RAIN may lead to significant stream rises in the Roper-McArthur District.

Abnormally high tides are expected between the NT Border and Burketown tonight and tomorrow, but the sea level should not exceed the highest tide of the year. Large waves are likely along the beachfront.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===================================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Cape Shield, including Groote Eylandt, in the Northern Territory to Burketown in Queensland.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 15.7S 136.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 15.3S 136.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 15.6S 138.1E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 17.9S 141.9E - 55 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
=========================
Ex-TC Olga was located by radar close to the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast and has slowed its NW movement. Discontinuous convective bands provide a Dvorak DT of 2.5, but FT based on MET and PAT=2.0. The system is forecast to continue to move NW under the influence of the mid-level steering ridge to the southwest, then recurve towards the N or NE during Thursday as an upper trough amplifies over central Australia. The broad-scale environment is very favourable for redevelopment of a tropical cyclone when the LLCC moves further over southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters, with divergent outflow aloft and strong monsoonal westerlies to the north.
Quoting Greyelf:
Ok, nevermind. I tried adding a little levity with my CycloneOz reference in post 1116, but the headbutters are too busy doing what they do.

Sorry to have interrupted. Come out of your corners and continue thinly veiled insults and snide comments when you hear the ding.

*ding!*


LOL I thought it was funny! (:
Quoting hydrus:
I lived on Gertrude ave in the 1980,s right across from there. I saw the hospital after the storm. It was awful bad.


Yeah, that was my first hurricane. What a way to start. LOL.
Let's compare:

2004 - four Florida storms, one Haiti storm, three Carolinas storms, one Louisiana storms, and two Southern Ontario storm remnants.

2005 - five Florida storms, two Haiti storms, one Carolinas storm, three Louisiana storms, and six Southern Ontario storm remnants.

2010 is expected to be a combination of the factors that led to high activity in the 2004 and 2005 seasons.
1150. Motttt
tdude thought you had a date?
Quoting tornadodude:


LOL you better get right on that Atmo

LOL.

Foot-in-mouth while I was typing something about atmo chem, JF?
Quoting Motttt:
tdude thought you had a date?


oh I did lol she is actually watching tv right now in my dorm
hydrus--actually that is incorrect. There were 7, and possibly 8 major hurricanes that made landfall on the Georgia coast in the 1800s. No hurricane moving overland from the Gulf of Mexico over to the Georgia coast has maintained major intensity during the historical record.
1154. hydrus
Quoting charlottefl:


Yeah, that was my first hurricane. What a way to start. LOL.
I remember after Charley they had Ivan coming into Charlotte Harbor as a Cat-5- The south-western tip of the Bermuda High nudged it a little to the west and spared us another catastrophe, but hit the panhandle.
GreyElf -- I so know how you feel. I couldn't even get a mercy chuckle with a bad beer joke.

JF: Also you would do well to at least familiarize
yourself with the atmospheric chemistry behind it.

A-A: LOL. Maybe someday I'll do that...


OMyGawd. This is where lesser men would have trotted out their curriculum vitae. Atmo, you're a better man than I...uh, if I was a man.

I'm still in the middle, trying to keep an open mind...losing my mind in the process.
Quoting tornadodude:


oh I did lol she is actually watching tv right now in my dorm

Dude, in between the "rules of the road" are a couple of implied ones.

One of them reads: "Under no circumstances is one to blog here while on a date or with a date waiting for them, or eternal geekiness will result. In extreme cases, offenders will be banished to live with their mothers until the age of 50."
Quoting tornadodude:


oh I did lol she is actually watching tv right now in my dorm


re TV: LOST is on. I think I've "lost" interest.
Quoting tornadodude:


oh I did lol she is actually watching tv right now in my dorm


uhhhh Matt, I think maybe you and I need to have a little chat..... :)
Quoting PcolaDan:


uhhhh Matt, I think maybe you and I need to have a little chat..... :)

dat's what I'm thinkin...
LOL she is right next to me :P
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
At 9:30 am CST, Tropical Low, Former Olga (998 hPa) located at 16.1S 137.4E or located 115 kms east of Borroloola and 205 kms west northwest of Mornington Island, has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving northwest at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/ 25HRS

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga is currently located near the coast and is expected to move northwest, remaining close to the coast. Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga is expected to redevelop over water near the coast tonight or early tomorrow.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between the NT/Qld Border and Cape Shield, including Groote Eylandt, tonight or early Thursday. Destructive winds with gusts to 125 kilometers per hour between Port Roper and the NT border may develop during Thurday if the cyclone intensifies quickly. GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may extend as far east as Burketown in Queensland, including Mornington Island, during tonight or ealry Thursday if the developing cyclone takes a more northward track.

HEAVY RAIN may lead to significant stream rises in the Roper-McArthur District.

Abnormally high tides are expected between the NT Border and Burketown tonight and tomorrow, but the sea level should not exceed the highest tide of the year. Large waves are likely along the beachfront.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===================================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Cape Shield, including Groote Eylandt, in the Northern Territory to Burketown in Queensland.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 15.7S 136.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 15.3S 136.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 15.6S 138.1E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 17.9S 141.9E - 55 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
=========================
Ex-TC Olga was located by radar close to the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast and has slowed its NW movement. Discontinuous convective bands provide a Dvorak DT of 2.5, but FT based on MET and PAT=2.0. The system is forecast to continue to move NW under the influence of the mid-level steering ridge to the southwest, then recurve towards the N or NE during Thursday as an upper trough amplifies over central Australia. The broad-scale environment is very favourable for redevelopment of a tropical cyclone when the LLCC moves further over southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters, with divergent outflow aloft and strong monsoonal westerlies to the north.


WRONG! See post 1089.
This is Hurricane Bill from 2009, August 22 to 24, 0Z:



Now if a high pressure system had been exiting the North American continent instead of a front, then Bill would have curved westwards and hit New York. While its strength would have been only a cat. 1, that's enough to do a bit of damage. But if the storm had been a category 3 travelling along the Gulf Stream when it curves northwestward due to a high pressure system, then that's some real trouble.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
GreyElf -- I so know how you feel. I couldn't even get a mercy chuckle with a bad beer joke.

JF: Also you would do well to at least familiarize
yourself with the atmospheric chemistry behind it.

A-A: LOL. Maybe someday I'll do that...


OMyGawd. This is where lesser men would have trotted out their curriculum vitae. Atmo, you're a better man than I...uh, if I was a man.

I'm still in the middle, trying to keep an open mind...losing my mind in the process.


Good ice breakers... :)
Quoting tornadodude:
LOL she is right next to me :P


Guess I should doll myself up a tad and say hi.

Hi there!!!!

Quoting charlottefl:


Good ice breakers... :)


this one's not bad ;)

Quoting PcolaDan:


Guess I should doll myself up a tad and say hi.

Hi there!!!!



LOL! she actually turned red! she says hi tho :P
Quoting tornadodude:


this one's not bad ;)



Literally on the floor laughing. (Ok almost)
1170. hydrus
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
hydrus--actually that is incorrect. There were 7, and possibly 8 major hurricanes that made landfall on the Georgia coast in the 1800s. No hurricane moving overland from the Gulf of Mexico over to the Georgia coast has maintained major intensity during the historical record.
O.K. I see, but Georgia does get the flooding rains and high winds from storms coming from the Gulf across the panhandle of Florida. Is that correct?
Oh, the wife says hello too.

you guys crack me up :P hha
Quoting atmoaggie:

Dude, in between the "rules of the road" are a couple of implied ones.

One of them reads: "Under no circumstances is one to blog here while on a date or with a date waiting for them, or eternal geekiness will result. In extreme cases, offenders will be banished to live with their mothers until the age of 50."


i have to disagree with you, some girls like the geeks! LOL
well I'm gonna catch you all later, have some, er, studying to do ;)

have a good one!
Quoting tornadodude:
well I'm gonna catch you all later, have some, er, studying to do ;)

have a good one!


errr study well ciao
Quoting tornadodude:
well I'm gonna catch you all later, have some, er, studying to do ;)

have a good one!


Well my exams are over. :)
I'm beginning to get excited about the prospects of a major winter storm for Greensboro, NC. However, it appears that we will be right near the "line" between mixed/ice transitioning to snow, or all snow. Anyone have any guesses as to which side of the line Greensboro will be on and snowfall totals?
Portlight Haiti relief update
Link
Quoting PcolaDan:
Oh, the wife says hello too.



Dan, you kill me...just catching up on the "debate"...going to crash now...it's hard keeping up the day job and the good job simultaneously ...LOL
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
here's my take


That looks like a sign in the outback.
1181. Motttt
Hey Press. Whats the word with cnn. Are you still on?
Pacific Ocean MSLP Analysis (00UTC)

Indian Ocean Analysis (00UTC)
guys I need to go to bed but I eed to know when will we hav our cold blast down here please tell me
Mott...it apparently ran on CCNI over the weekend...doing followup Thursday AM with NBC Nightly News...first segment should run Thurs or Fri night...second segment sometime next week....


Let's start a pool on how many times I can say 'Weather Underground"...
So I guess Canewarning got banned :p It's a wonder how he get's banned, and none of us others did
Quoting charlottefl:


Good ice breakers... :)


My turn to ROFL -- I would never have read my own post that way. Oh, that's good. Hey, baby, howzabout letting me see your curriculum vitae?

SO glad the fun geeks, I mean, guys, have reappeared. WaterWitch is right.
1187. Motttt
Thanks Press will try to find
Quoting hydrus:
O.K. I see, but Georgia does get the flooding rains and high winds from storms coming from the Gulf across the panhandle of Florida. Is that correct?


Yes. Also spin-off tornados. Georgia can also be impacted by hurricanes coming in from the East and moving West. I remember getting off work from a 7AM-3PM shift in Valdosta in 2004 or 2005 and watching a approaching hurricane in my rear-view mirror as I drove West on US 84. The winds hit just after I arrived home, and snapped off part of a 75 year old pecan tree in my back yard. It missed the house.

In 1994 (I think) a tropical storm from the GOM stalled over the Americus GA area. Flooded downtown Montezuma GA, and the dam on Lake Blackshear broke, causing major flooding downstream alogg the Flint River.
Dear Jeff,

Has your little disertation had the required triple peer review to validate your premis. Just kidding, we have had a peek into that egotistical "scientific" elitist power trip with the revalations of Climatgate. I'm not buying your line...
Quoting tornadodude:
So I guess Canewarning got banned :p It's a wonder how he get's banned, and none of us others did


Was Cane the fellow who posted the funny cartoons? The rest of you made me go zzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Oh, sorry...pfft, what do you care (see avatar).
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Was Cane the fellow who posted the funny cartoons? The rest of you made me go zzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Oh, sorry...pfft, what do you care (see avatar).


;)

haha well I guess he said it was for personally attacking someone? I'm confused.
Quoting tornadodude:
haha well I guess he said it was for personally attacking someone? I'm confused.

Always sorry to hear that; both for banner and bannee.

It's different if you get banned for a purple-hippo-pooping (a personal fave, via our west coast buddy).

(Time out for our local weather.)

Oh gosh, the arrows come down SE from the north, and up NE from the south, and guess where they meet? Uh huh, uh huh...the only question is how MUCH snow...that was the teaser...

Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Always sorry to hear that; both for banner and bannee.

It's different if you get banned for a purple-hippo-pooping (a personal fave, via our west coast buddy).

(Time out for our local weather.)

Oh gosh, the arrows come down SE from the north, and up NE from the south, and guess where they meet? Uh huh, uh huh...the only question is how MUCH snow...that was the teaser...



Parts of kentucky might get 10 inches or more
Quoting tornadodude:


Parts of kentucky might get 10 inches or more


Whoa. We need a new snow shovel. Our old one broke during the N'or Ida blizzard. Guess I'd better get two...the ergonomic kind...one for the yorkie, one for the pom. As if...I wish.
Quoting tornadodude:


Parts of kentucky might get 10 inches or more

Well, what WaterWitch may be true for some, but not if they have to wait around for you to get tired of the WUnderground blog...

What's the matter with you?

Sorry, parting shot.

G'Nite, tdude, AIM, Pat, Press, Astro, etc.
G'morning, Aussie.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Whoa. We need a new snow shovel. Our old one broke during the N'or Ida blizzard. Guess I'd better get two...the ergonomic kind...one for the yorkie, one for the pom. As if...I wish.


haha that would be funny.

or you could do this:

1198. Patrap
Night Grandpa..

nite John Boy,

nite Susan,


Night atmo
Quoting atmoaggie:

Well, what WaterWitch may be true for some, but not if they have to wait around for you to get tired of the WUnderground blog...

What's the matter with you?

Sorry, parting shot.

G'Nite, tdude, AIM, Pat, Press, Astro, etc.
G'morning, Aussie.


Oh I'll make sure to stay around, way too many great people here to let a couple trolls bother me. sorry, I'm not leaving :)

have a great night Atmo!
So Kentucky lost to South Carolina, whatcha think about that, Press :)
Yup, it was a sad day here when the U.Md. Women's Basketball 40 game winning streak finally came to an end. They're still No. 1!
I know Maryland Men's Basketball has done pretty darn well...what I couldn't find on the net today, is just where are they in the standings? I don't know the best site for that.

Diff. topic: who would have ever thought that Toyota would ever have to suspend selling 8 models of cars. U.S. companies must be drinking champagne.

Glad you escorted your lady back, like a gentleman.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
cricket cricket chirp chirp
Matt is reading his WU mail.
All the guys on the blog have wu-mailed him.

We weren't talking about trolls bothering you.
Even geeks get off the blog when the pretty young lady is around.

Awake is going to delete this post in 2-3 mins.


LOL wow :P nice one Atmo!

I got back on here after I walked her back to her room Lol
1204. Motttt
yea that was a fast date
Quoting Motttt:
yea that was a fast date


Lol yea, but we hung out earlier as well
1206. Motttt
wish I was young again
Quoting Motttt:
wish I was young again


I'm doing what I can to enjoy it
1208. Motttt
stay in school as long as you can.. That all that I know to say
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Yup, it was a sad day here when the U.Md. Women's Basketball 40 game winning streak finally came to an end. They're still No. 1!
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
I know Maryland Men's Basketball has done pretty darn well...what I couldn't find on the net today, is just where are they in the standings? I don't know the best site for that.

Diff. topic: who would have ever thought that Toyota would ever have to suspend selling 8 models of cars. U.S. companies must be drinking champagne.

Glad you escorted your lady back, like a gentleman.


The Purdue women's team beat #4 ohio state yesterday, that was nice!

And I try to be a gentlemen, and for the rankings go here
Quoting tornadodude:


The Purdue women's team beat #4 ohio state yesterday, that was nice!

And I try to be a gentlemen, and for the rankings go here

Thank you for the link, kind sir (:
Sigh, I guess there's always the Georgetown Hoyas...a sis-in-law went there.

Congrats to your women's team.

Bed-time for me...
Good night, Matt, & anyone still here or lurking.

Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Thank you for the link, kind sir (:
Sigh, I guess there's always the Georgetown Hoyas...a sis-in-law went there.

Congrats to your women's team.

Bed-time for me...
Good night, Matt, & anyone still here or lurking.



No problem!

have a good one Nana :)
This does not make Sense....these should be easing by now.......What the heck is going on.....i really fear something big is coming somewhere else with all this energy being released its building somewhere else....


Earthquake Details
Magnitude 4.9
Date-Time Wednesday, January 27, 2010 at 00:57:27 UTC
Tuesday, January 26, 2010 at 07:57:27 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 18.380°N, 72.921°W
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region HAITI REGION
Distances 65 km (40 miles) WSW of PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti
90 km (55 miles) E of Les Cayes, Haiti
170 km (105 miles) SSW of Cap-Haitien, Haiti
1110 km (690 miles) SE of Miami, Florida


1213. Patrap
Nite Mom,

nite Jacob,..


nite AIM,...

Night..Mary Ann

Groundhog will probably not see shadow, due to snow :) (Systems often (always, if you ask me) move slower than the models predict)
I only made it through 53 of the 107 pages of Watts rebuttal. I was surprised by the amount of quotes from dead people that died before the industrial revolution. My favorite was about beating the story out of data... I'm not sure he's actually read peer reviewed articles or had a college chemistry class. He certainly isn't aware how Agricultural planting zones have shifted north, followed by animals & trees, the melting ice at the poles..ships sailing where ice was permanent..sudden not so permafrost. At one point he seemed to not even recognize the points of this paper he's rebutting. Same assumption..look how bad that station is placed..ignoring the data, the flaw in the MMTS sensors, testing a hypothesis. He's beginning to sound really paranoid too.. NASA & NOAA backing a govt conspiracy.. I know people that work at for NASA. These people are doing their life's work trying to better things while winning the races against the other countries. NASA & NOAA employees got mad when the govt under Bush changed their words & results trying to hide what we are doing to our environment.

Torn~ That pic of the bad station you posted.. What kind of sensor is that? What problems are those sensors known for??

Too bad about CaneWarning..was really looking forward to a response to my post there.
Quoting Skyepony:
I only made it through 53 of the 107 pages of Watts rebuttal. I was surprised by the amount of quotes from dead people that died before the industrial revolution. My favorite was about beating the story out of data... I'm not sure he's actually read peer reviewed articles or had a college chemistry class. He certainly isn't aware how Agricultural planting zones have shifted north, followed by animals & trees, the melting ice at the poles..ships sailing where ice was permanent..sudden not so permafrost. At one point he seemed to not even recognize the points of this paper he's rebutting. Same assumption..look how bad that station is placed..ignoring the data, the flaw in the MMTS sensors, testing a hypothesis. He sounds really paranoid too.. NASA & NOAA backing a govt conspiracy.. I know people that work at for NASA. These people are doing their life's work trying to better things while winning the races against the other countries. NASA & NOAA employees got mad when the govt under Bush changed their words & results trying to hide what we are doing to our environment.

Torn~ That pic of the bad station you posted.. What kind of sensor is that? What problems are those sensors known for??

Too bad about CaneWarning..was really looking forward to a response to my post there.


I guess Obama is making the big Change......ROFLMAO
here we go again :P
Quoting tornadodude:
here we go again :P


Matt its crazy man. Now its a conspiracy on Bush......LOL
1219. Patrap
Muzzled under Bush, NASA Scientists Still Face Hurdles Publicizing Findings

The December 3 GAO report was triggered after the space agencys Inspector General found last year that between 2004 and 2006, the NASA Headquarters Office of Public Affairs managed the topic of climate change in a manner that reduced, marginalized, or mischaracterized climate change science made available to the general public, including barring researchers from speaking with the media and downgrading news releases, which often spur press pickup, to Web features,the IG report found. (One downgraded news release was fuzzily titled, Earth Gets a Warm Feeling All Over.)

It concluded that inappropriate political posturing was the proximate cause of at least some of these actions and that a political appointee was a central figure in the allegations of censorship and denial of media access.

In May 2007, after an internal review, a key management position in the communications office that had been filled with a political appointee was converted to a civil service position. Bob Jacobs, a NASA spokesman, said none of the four or so Bush-era appointees targeted by the report still work at the agency.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Matt its crazy man. Now its a conspiracy on Bush......LOL


LOL what isnt?
1221. Patrap
Night skyepony...

Quoting TampaSpin:
This does not make Sense....these should be easing by now.......What the heck is going on.....i really fear something big is coming somewhere else with all this energy being released its building somewhere else....


Earthquake Details
Magnitude 4.9
Date-Time Wednesday, January 27, 2010 at 00:57:27 UTC
Tuesday, January 26, 2010 at 07:57:27 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 18.380°N, 72.921°W
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region HAITI REGION
Distances 65 km (40 miles) WSW of PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti
90 km (55 miles) E of Les Cayes, Haiti
170 km (105 miles) SSW of Cap-Haitien, Haiti
1110 km (690 miles) SE of Miami, Florida





you dont think Haiti will be Sinking do you with all the Earthquake they been haveing i no it wont and i hop not but could it?
Pat~ Thanks for the references. To blame this on a govt conspiracy one must totally forget recent history.. Or maybe that's still being rewritten.

Haiti is on Floater 1, been watching the AVN version for any odd IR emissions that aren't explained by weather. None have been spotted since before the last 6 something after shock. Probably no big ones coming tonight.
jheez never mind.

But actually if Dr M published it was peer reviewed.
1226. Patrap
Quoting Skyepony:
Pat~ Thanks for the references. To blame this on a govt conspiracy one must totally forget recent history.. Or maybe that's still being rewritten.

Haiti is on Floater 1, been watching the AVN version for any odd IR emissions that aren't explained by weather. None have been spotted since before the last 6 something after shock. Probably no big ones coming tonight.


Heard you mention that about the IR floater,interesting stuff.
Quoting tornadodude:


LOL what isnt?


I won't stoop to all they want to post...about Bush. Look what Obama and the people he follow are doing....Have fun with all one could publish....under the Clinton's.....LOL...what a joke!
Quoting Tazmanian:



you dont think Haiti will be Sinking do you with all the Earthquake they been haveing i no it wont and i hop not but could it?

That section of the plate boundary currently is not a subduction zone, so no it won't sink in any geologically soon time frame. Sheared apart a cm or so per year? Sure, that's what caused this quake. But even that needs a geologic clock, not a wrist watch
Quoting charlottefl:


Good ice breakers... :)


No need, You'd be surprised where ive been, or perhaps not.

There is very explicit formulation for "greenhouse warming" involving re emission and reflection in the IR bands specifically for each type of molecule.

Its not a simple regurgitation as this is repeated up an atmospheric column for varying concentrations of gasses.

I actually can handle the Integration, the chemistry and physics.

It certainly shouldn't be beneath you.
ok here comes the debate again. I am staying out of it this time before I get flagged and threatened with an indefinite ban
Quoting Tazmanian:



you dont think Haiti will be Sinking do you with all the Earthquake they been haveing i no it wont and i hop not but could it?


Taz a build up of 200 years is being released but, to have this many strong after shakes i have never seen before like this some 2 weeks later........i find it very strange......funny how when this quake occured also, that just by chance all the quakes in YellowStone has been occuring. Don't know if they could be linked but, it sure is mind puzzling to me.
Starting next week the Polar Vortex will pay a visit to the lower lakes/Northeast. So next month promises to(at least) start off like early this month for the eastern 2/3(though details are still not ironed out).

Winter ain't over yet!!
1230 thats unnecessary, and as interesting as you livebloging your girlfriends visit was, I was simply wanting to see the mechanics of GW as it is a natural process responsible for sustaining life on earth.

That isnt actually argued you know.
Lafayette, Purdue University Airport
Lat: 40.43 Lon: -86.93 Elev: 623
Last Update on Jan 27, 12:54 am EST

Fair

17 °F
(-8 °C)
Humidity: 70 %
Wind Speed: W 10 MPH
Barometer: 30.14" (1021.6 mb)
Dewpoint: 9 °F (-13 °C)
Wind Chill: 5 °F (-15 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
Quoting weatherbro:
Starting next week the Polar Vortex will pay a visit to the lower lakes/Northeast. So next month promises to(at least) start off like early this month for the eastern 2/3(though details are still not ironed out).

Winter ain't over yet!!


Possibly So.....LOOK how the Artic air moves into Canada!

From the Wiki:

Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere absorb most of the infrared radiation emitted by the surface and pass the absorbed heat to other atmospheric gases through molecular collisions. The greenhouse gases also radiate in the infrared range. Radiation is emitted both upward, with part escaping to space, and downward toward Earth's surface. The surface and lower atmosphere are warmed by the part of the energy that is radiated downward, making our life on earth possible.

A radiative balance is achieved when the thermal energy radiated to space matches the energy absorbed from the sun. Without greenhouse gases all of the energy radiated from the surface would reach space at the speed of light. As a practical matter none of the energy radiated from the surface at wavelengths that can be absorbed by the principal greenhouse gases reaches space directly. Rather due to cycles of absorption and emission, radiation at those frequencies is trapped within the atmosphere and can only be emitted by greenhouse gases high in the troposphere where the lapse rate ensures that it is significantly colder. Since the rate of emission by the colder molecules is much slower, the entire earth system must heat up in order to restore a radiative balance. In this way, the greenhouse effect limits the emission from the earth by radiation
Quoting TampaSpin:


Possibly So.....LOOK how the Artic air moves into Canada!



Dang! Lol thats gonna be a bit nippy, eh?
Ill start the math tomorrow - perhaps I need more technical reference than is available on the web or in here.

Ill pick up some resources.
JF,

I hate to do this, but I think I'm going to put you on my ignore list. It honestly is nothing personal, but you and I seem to butt heads a lot, and it would be better for the blog if we quit bantering back and forth on here
why tell me - dont care.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
why tell me - dont care.


alright. I was trying to be civil about it, and maybe we could just agree to disagree? obviously neither one of us are changing our views.
Quoting tornadodude:


alright. I was trying to be civil about it, and maybe we could just agree to disagree? obviously neither one of us are changing our views.


Bro, he talks to himself most of the time anyways.....LOL...its no loss!
Nite Matt.....see ya tomorrow.
Lol goodnight Tampa
Quoting TampaSpin:


Taz a build up of 200 years is being released but, to have this many strong after shakes i have never seen before like this some 2 weeks later........i find it very strange......funny how when this quake occured also, that just by chance all the quakes in YellowStone has been occuring. Don't know if they could be linked but, it sure is mind puzzling to me.




ok whats the news on yellowstone do you have for us PM me about this and went me no


good night
night everyone (:
Quoting tornadodude:


alright. I was trying to be civil about it, and maybe we could just agree to disagree? obviously neither one of us are changing our views.




better yet can we this drop it?? and move on too some in new this is geting vary vary old
Quoting Tazmanian:




better yet can we this drop it?? and move on too some in new this is geting vary vary old


agreed, thanks Taz


goodnight guys
Quoting TampaSpin:


Bro, he talks to himself most of the time anyways.....LOL...its no loss!


Not really.

I dont read your posts usually either though so I guess we are even. Funny how you guys took about 10 posts to say how you were ignoring me - and wish goodnight.

Hope that doest happen in season. No one has time for that.
Quoting Tazmanian:




better yet can we this drop it?? and move on too some in new this is geting vary vary old


Hey mr taz - could you have STL drop me a line if you talk to him?
Quoting tornadodude:


ok thanks, I'm intrigued by the science that can prove how fast something melted thousands of years ago.


Sea level rise can be measured. And sea level has been steady for the past 7,000 years.
Quoting tornadodude:


agreed, thanks Taz


goodnight guys



your welcome
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #27
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER OLGA (07U)
5:00 PM CST January 27 2010
========================================

At 3:30 pm CST, Tropical Low, Former Olga (994 hPa) located at 16.3S 137.0E or located 80 kms east southeast of Borroloola and 240 kms west of Mornington Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west southwest at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga is forecast to move slowly offshore Thursday morning where it is expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between the NT/Qld Border and Cape Shield, including Groote Eylandt, during Thursday morning. GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may extend as far east as Burketown in Queensland, including Mornington Island, during Thursday if the developing cyclone follows a more easterly track.

HEAVY RAIN may lead to significant stream rises and flooding of low-lying areas in the Roper-McArthur and Arnhem districts.

Abnormally high tides are expected between the NT Border and Burketown tonight and tomorrow, where the sea level may exceed the highest tide of the year on the largest tide of the day. Large waves are likely along the beachfront.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===================================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Cape Shield in the NT to Burketown in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt and Mornington Island.

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal and island communities from Burketown to Kowanyama in Queensland.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 15.9S 136.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 15.5S 136.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 16.2S 138.8E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 19.1S 142.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=========================
Ex-TC Olga was located by radar close to the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast and has recently moved in a SW direction taking it further inland. Cloud structure has significantly improved in the last few hours with tightly curved bands developing and cirrus outflow. Possible 0.4 wrap from visible satellite imagery but FT based on MET with a slow development giving a FT of 2.5. The system is forecast to move NW under the influence of the mid-level steering ridge to the southwest, then recurve towards the N or NE early on Thursday as a middle level trough amplifies over central Australia. The broad-scale environment is very favourable for redevelopment of a tropical cyclone when the LLCC moves further over southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters, with divergent outflow aloft and strong monsoonal westerlies to the north.
Quoting TampaSpin:
funny how when this quake occured also, that just by chance all the quakes in YellowStone has been occuring. Don't know if they could be linked but, it sure is mind puzzling to me.

Nothing to indicate linkage. Different plates. Different types of rumblings. Very long distance apart, which includes other quiet shake zones in between, such as New Madrid. Yellowstone has a history of swarms. If you want to connect those to plate boundary activity consider the Pacific or Jaun de Fuca plates, both much closer. I haven't looked to see if there's unusual quake activity in the US Pacific Northwest
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number THREE
ZONE PERTURBEE 10-20092010
10:00 AM Réunion January 27 2010
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Area of Disturbed Weather (1005 hPa) located at 18.3S 58.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving south-southeast at 0 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: 1.5/1.5/D 0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 19.4S 58.6E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 20.7S 58.6E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 23.6S 58.6E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
72 HRS: 26.4S 60.1E - 35 knots (Devenant EXTRATROPICAL)

Additional Information
========================
Convective activity has persisted since yesterday at 17.00z and shows now a curved band pattern. There is however no obvious low level center on METEO-SAT7 animation and also on SSMIS 0120z. Environmental condition are rather good (oceanic heat potential favorable, good equatorward inflow but less efficient poleward, weak vertical wind shear). Environmental is expected to remain favorable within the next 24-48 hours. Beyond, northwesterly vertical wind shear should increase with an approaching upper levels trough. Ocean heat potential becomes unfavorable south of 24S. The low is expected to track globally south southeastward on the western edge of a mid level ridge in its east.

Réunion and Mauritius islands should stay far away from the more intense convective activity east of the system which should concern Rodriques island within the next 3 days.
Quoting transitzone:

Nothing to indicate linkage. Different plates. Different types of rumblings. Very long distance apart, which includes other quiet shake zones in between, such as New Madrid. Yellowstone has a history of swarms. If you want to connect those to plate boundary activity consider the Pacific or Jaun de Fuca plates, both much closer. I haven't looked to see if there's unusual quake activity in the US Pacific Northwest

I've always used "meander" as my rule of thumb for quake activity and plate tectonics.
Though there is an impetus for direction of movement, until we can Xray the edges of all the plate boundariers at the same time and feed the everchanging dynamics of all the plates into a computer model large earthquakes will see no more than a few moments notice before the event.
Meandering, chaotic cascade...IMHO
Iron Mountain, Michigan (Airport)
Updated: 4:54 AM CST on January 27, 2010
1 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Windchill: -13 °F
Humidity: 69%
Dew Point: -7 °F
Wind: 8 mph from the West
Pressure: 29.88 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Mostly Cloudy 7000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1181 ft

By HOLLY RAMER, Associated Press Writer Holly Ramer, Associated Press Writer – Tue Jan 26, 9:26 pm ET
CONCORD, N.H. – First the Old Man, now the Big Wind. New Hampshire's Mount Washington has lost its distinction as the site of the fastest wind gust ever recorded on Earth, officials at the Mount Washington Observatory said Tuesday.

The concession came three days after the World Meteorological Organization posted a snippet on its Web site saying a panel of experts reviewing extreme weather and climate data turned up a 253 mph gust on Australia's Barrow Island during Cyclone Olivia in 1996.

That tops the 231 mph record set atop Mount Washington on April 12, 1934.
will the jobs come back like some foresee? not so sure 53f bright and suny today little wind e cent florida
1260. leftovers 12:09 PM GMT on January 27, 2010
will the jobs come back like some foresee?



When focus and confidence is restored, yes...IMHO

Good Morning, Just a tad chilly this fine day.
1263. unf97
Good morning!

34.2 degrees as the sun rises in North Jax this morning. Also, some scattered frost.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Another thing in the back of my mind parallel to the warming controversy is the AIDS crisis. Early on people said the same kind of political things about funding public prevention projects and research.

Look where that got us. I was too young to speak up then but I can now. Even if by some chance I am wrong - this will affect millions disastrously and I will take the risk, I don't want to be like those that let AIDS do what it has done.

It is actually the same kind of thing also:

Ironically THE leader of the denial movement - "Lord" Mockton was instrumental in AIDS denial (or disinformation) also.



In an article entitled "AIDS: A British View", written for the January 1987 issue of The American Spectator(same magazine running denial articles), he argued that "there is only one way to stop AIDS. That is to screen the entire population regularly and to quarantine all carriers of the disease for life. Every member of the population should be blood-tested every month ... all those found to be infected with the virus, even if only as carriers, should be isolated compulsorily, immediately, and permanently." This would involve isolating between 1.5 and 3 million people in the United States ("not altogether impossible") and another 30,000 people in the UK ("not insuperably difficult").


In February 1987 discussing his views he presented the results of an opinion poll that showed public support for his position.

Never mind people are infectious before they seroconvert - so he would had probably made it worse here - Today and every day 6500 PEOPLE WILL DIE of AIDS in Sub Saharan Africa according to UNAIDS. That's a Haiti earthquake in casualties every 25 days. Back in the 80s, forget the death and suffering here, if people would have listened to scientists and experts, Researched accordingly, showed some simple compassion for other peoples that number would have been far less.

But no, people like that phony and magazines like "American Spectator" had to run that garbage. Just like now.

"AIDS: A British View" when we needed action - I wont be on the wrong side of this, or not be taking it seriously because it makes me "uncomfortable" (like discussing AIDS) when the time comes for me to account for my beliefs and actions.

And yes I puled the article and he did say it.


Here is an internet article
Conservative "Climate Expert" Wants to Quarantine People with AIDS
Lord Christopher Monckton wears a lot of dubious nametags. He's a go-to guy for conservatives like Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh, and a frequent right-wing pundit when it comes to issues like global warming and climate change.

Of course, don't expect to find Monckton in line to buy a Toyota Prius or blowing his nose into Seventh Generation tissue. Turns out Monckton is a global warming denier who thinks that environmental activism is akin to Nazism, and that youth activists working to stop climate change are similar to the young people that took up arms in Hitler's Army.

And the crazy train doesn't stop there. Media Matters broke the story that Monckton once wrote a piece for the American Spectator where he urged the government to lock up everyone with HIV/AIDS, and to institute mandatory monthly HIV testing for the entire population.

Yikes. And this man is a hero to small government types like Beck and Limbaugh? Monckton's politics and public comments are so extreme, he makes the KGB seem like Care Bears.

The article unearthed by Media Matters shows a man that is so woefully ignorant of science and public health, that his piece is beyond embarrassing. It's scary.

"For there is only one way to stop AIDS. That is to screen the entire population regularly and to quarantine all carriers of the disease for life to halt the transmission of the disease to those who are uninfected," Monckton wrote. "Every member of the population should be blood-tested every month to detect the presence of antibodies against the disease, and all those found to be infected with the virus, even if only as carriers, should be isolated compulsorily, immediately, and permanently."

How V for Vendetta or Children of Men of Monckton. Yet this is a man who Rush Limbaugh called "a voice of sanity." Now that's some definition of sanity.

And proving that ignorance ages with time, Monckton has been lighting it up with hate speech in Copenhagen this week, as activists and world leaders from around the globe take part in historic climate change negotiations. Monckton is there, attending nice little events sponsored by big industry types like Exxon-Mobil, calling environmental activists Nazis.

"The number of people being killed by this misplaced belief in climate change is if anything greater than the number of people killed by Hitler," Monckton told a Huffington Post blogger.

So there ya' have it. A conservative "expert" on climate change -- who never majored in science, by the way, and has no scientific background -- telling the world that people living with AIDS should be locked up for life, and that climate change activists are worse than the Third Reich.

There's no way this man should be taken seriously from this point forward. Not even by the Fox News crowd.

http://gayrights.change.org/blog/view/conservative_climate_expert_wants_to_quarantine_people_with_a ids
lots of problems in the system that need to be fixed around here for example some small businesses pay in cash or they assume the worker is a subcontractor (who can afford that if there just workers) and paid with a check no taxes or ss taken out it sucks if your a worker desperate you got to take the job regardless
Quoting severstorm:

Good Morning, Just a tad chilly this fine day.


46 at my house this morning. Not bad at all.
There's no way this man should be taken seriously from this point forward. Not even by the Fox News crowd.


You ought to watch a little Fox News once in a while. They top the ratings for a reason. You head in the sand types don't get all the news.
From this Saturday thru next Friday appears to be the wettest period in quite a while for Florida. Possibly 5 to 8" of rain by the end of next week. for Central & North Florida and this will probably cause flooding of low lying areas.
1270. Nimitz
If this gets me banned, then so be it.

WILL YOU PLEASE STOP ALL THE GLOBAL WARMING CRAP!!!!!

I come here a LOT. I mostly lurk. WU has been my best resource for finding out the weather forecast, providing me with timely information. That is, until the past week. Now it's nothing but GW arguments, whining, sniping, etc. If you want to beat your favorite drum, please take it somewhere else, because I've had it. Have I got a belief? Sure do. Will I discuss it here? Haven't in a year so far, don't plan to. I'm not an expert, so my opinion is just like everyone else's and smells the same.

/rant
Byron
Morning jeff9641, I hear you on the up coming rain. so far this month i have 4.53in. Been awhile since i've been over normal which is 3.41in.
Good Morning. Once again for the WU Folks in Northern Florida. 2nd Annual WeatherFest all day on Saturday at NWS in Tallahassee on the campus of Florida State:

Tours of the National Weather Service Office in Tallahassee, FL. See a demonstration of the operational workstations we use to prepare forecasts and warnings. Watch NWS Meteorologists as they work on the forecast right before your eyes.

Meet and interact with NWS Meteorologists, FSU Meteorology professors and students, and members of the state, county, city and university emergency repsonse personnel.
Explore FSU's Mobile Doppler radar research vehicle.
Tour emergency support vehicles, like the Florida Division of Emergency Managements's Mobile Command Vehicle, the City of Tallahassee's Urban Search & Rescue Support Vehicle, The Tallahassee Police Department's MCV, and even a 40-ft fire engine.

Meet your favorite local television meteorologists from WCTV, WTXL, WALB, and WJHG. The on-air meteorologists will be here with their live remote vans and will also be participating in a panel discussion in the large lecture hall within Love Bldg.

Loca HAM operators will be here with their equipment. You can also get your NOAA Weather radio programmed. Just be sure your radio has batteries when you bring it to the festival.

Educational exhibits on physical science and meteorology will be fun for all ages! The balloon toss will return to demonstrate to kids how we colllect rainfall measurements. We will also have an oobleck demonstration of a non-Newtonian liquid. This has to be seen to be believed. Can you walk on water?

Explore the FSU Meteorology TV Studio to see how students prepare their daily broadcasts. You can act out the weather in front of the "big green wall." The Weather Challenge game will return. New games start every hour on the hour.
This year, FSU faculty and staff from the Meteorology and Oceanography Depts. will be giving weather talks geared toward the general public on popular topics of the day. Scheduled topics are listed below.


"El Niño and its Impact on the Southeast U.S." by NWS Tallahassee Meteorologist-in-Charge, Paul Duval

"Shocking Facts about Lightning" by Dr. Henry Fuelberg

"Meteorology on the Gulf" by Dr. Paul Ruscher

"Climate Change and ClimateGate" by Dr. Jon Ahlquist

"Slowing Down of the Global Conveyor Belt and It's Impact on the Climate" by Physical Oceanography graduate student, Mona Behl


Participate in the simulation of a severe weather event with NWS Meteorologists to observe the warning decision and dissemination process. You'll help make the warning decisions! We'll be moving this popular demonstration to a larger venue to accomodate more people, since many of you were unable to participate last year. A new case will be used this year, so don't think you already know the answers! The simulation will begin every hour on the half hour.

Learn about weather balloons and how we use the data they provide. Tour our launch facility. Observe a live balloon launch during your visit! We will be launching the balloons from the parking lot this year and have seven launches scheduled, so you won't miss out. We'll be giving away WeatherFest balloons to the kids, so they can launch their balloon along with ours!

Raffles and plenty of other giveaways are planned throughout the day! Be sure to get your official WeatherFest pen. We'll have balloons for the kids.

Campus vending services will be selling "fan fare" food items at the event. Goodies such as hot dogs, cotton candy, ice cream, cocoa, and other beverages will be available at a reduced price. In addition, the N. Florida AMS will have a bake sale on the 3rd floor of the Love Bldg.


Bring the Family and have a great time....
Quoting severstorm:
Morning jeff9641, I hear you on the up coming rain. so far this month i have 4.53in. Been awhile since i've been over normal which is 3.41in.


My monthly total is almost the same as yours. I've seen 4.45" so far this month but just north of me there are areas that have seen 6 plus inches so far. Have a great day my friend I'm sure I will have a busy day.
Quoting Nimitz:
If this gets me banned, then so be it.

WILL YOU PLEASE STOP ALL THE GLOBAL WARMING CRAP!!!!!

I come here a LOT. I mostly lurk. WU has been my best resource for finding out the weather forecast, providing me with timely information. That is, until the past week. Now it's nothing but GW arguments, whining, sniping, etc. If you want to beat your favorite drum, please take it somewhere else, because I've had it. Have I got a belief? Sure do. Will I discuss it here? Haven't in a year so far, don't plan to. I'm not an expert, so my opinion is just like everyone else's and smells the same.

/rant
Byron

I'm with you, Some times in the past few days, I haven't even bothered reading back blog cause i no exactly what it's about. AGW.
How bout those that claim not to want to discus GW Dont - NO opinions or calling it crap or whatever - Like you are actually sincere - talk about the weather - Ive yet to see someone get in trouble for that.

I sure will never complain.

You may want to see want Dr M said yesterday and the repugnant things that were said about him in his blog.
Lots of GW Trolls hanging around the Blog lately..... :)
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Lots of GW Trolls hanging around the Blog lately..... :)



Sho nuff
Adoption of the term "Post-Tropical Cyclone" Terminology by the National Weather Service

ON MAY 15 2010...THE NWS WILL BEGIN USING THE TERM /POST-
TROPICAL/ TO DESCRIBE WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT ARE NO LONGER
TROPICAL CYCLONES. THIS CHANGE WILL MAKE NWS TERMINOLOGY
CONSISTENT WITH THE TERMINOLOGY USED BY OTHER WORLD
METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION MEMBER STATES. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW
THE NWS TO MORE ACCURATELY DESCRIBE THE METEOROLOGICAL STRUCTURE
OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONES.

THE FOLLOWING DEFINITION FOR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE
INCLUDED IN THIS SEASON/S UPDATE OF NWS INSTRUCTION
10-604: TROPICAL CYCLONE DEFINITIONS.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...A FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS GENERIC
TERM DESCRIBES A CYCLONE THAT NO LONGER POSSESSES SUFFICIENT
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONES CAN CONTINUE CARRYING HEAVY RAINS AND
HIGH WINDS. FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONES THAT HAVE BECOME FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL...AS WELL AS REMNANT LOWS...ARE TWO SPECIFIC
CLASSES OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONES.
Quoting AussieStorm:

I'm with you, Some times in the past few days, I haven't even bothered reading back blog cause i no exactly what it's about. AGW.
we just dont really understand as much as we think we understand
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we just dont really understand as much as we think we understand


Agreed.. but it sure doesn't stop them from flogging their views to the point of being put on ignore :)

Snowing yet KOG??
ya flurries nothing serious cold this morn getting colder won't see above freezing till tuseday next week
Ignore works too. Thats what its for.
Those who care about constructive discussions may be interested in this:

"Is This the Right Room for an Argument? Link

Those interested in how the IPCC is critiquing and working toward improved transparency and decision-making processes may want to read this:

"From Inside and Out, Climate Panel is Pushed to Change" Link
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ya flurries nothing serious cold this morn getting colder won't see above freezing till tuseday next week


aww sorry to hear that KOG (snicker snicker)
They're starting to get excited here in eastern NC for some snow. Looking pretty iffy, however.
253 mph on a cup anemometer is astounding. I'd like to meet the engineer who designed it.
Quoting largeeyes:
They're starting to get excited here in eastern NC for some snow. Looking pretty iffy, however.



Central and Western NC appears more likely, Eastern NC could get a far amount of ice for awhile until the change over to rain.
WTH is JFLORIDA, and why is emailing me??
Dont worry wont happen again. I was wondering why you banned me since you mention it - But why I cared is beyond me. I never go to your blog anyway. so whatever.

BTW - when you put someone on ignore you cant see their posts. lol.
RE: 1286


Best laugh I've had in a week!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we just dont really understand as much as we think we understand

Agreed
Good Morning everyone! Hey, everyone in Dallas-Ft Worth, TX watch out..

Quoting Orcasystems:
WTH is JFLORIDA, and why is emailing me??


Welcome back to the Jungle or ancient times......LOL! Most have him on Ignore! Hope you had a good vacation!
Quoting Orcasystems:
WTH is JFLORIDA, and why is emailing me??

I don't no who that is. I have it on Ignore.
Takin the hint J?
Tampa! You chicken!!!

jk!

LMAO!
Not my blog and sorry to be disrespectful to the author. Any who wish to discus sourced climatology are welcome in my blog.
JF you're about as popular here as a tootheache.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Tampa! You chicken!!!

jk!

LMAO!


Ya it too much of a personal attack......LOL! Since no mention of any name now....there is a lot of nut cases out there.....Could be You and I as one too......LOL
Could be You and I as one too......


Depends on who you ask I suppose!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Could be You and I as one too......


Depends on who you ask I suppose!


Now Doug you already know what 90% of this blog is and stands for.....LOL! And i know you know what i am saying! Watch the left turn really quickly toward the center for a while tonite.
1272. lol one of those people is my professor at FSU ROFL.
Quoting ElConando:
1272. lol one of those people is my professor at FSU ROFL.

Which one? I worked with Fuelberg on a project once upon a time...
1307. Is it Paul Ruscher? I've been trying to get in touch with him. If you talk to him tell him Barry from Milton emailed him.
Wow. 80 knots or 45 knots? Guess it depends on interaction with the coast in the Gulf of Carpentaria...





Seems a little surprising that it would spin up at all, much less make 80 knots with this TCHP:
1311. Rakhal
Hmm, just spent a LOT of time reading through maybe a years-worth of posts on here and one thing I have noticed about the whole GW debate here is how repetitious it is! The same points are brought up again and again, each time as if this is some stunning new revelation in the debate. And the same responses are made again and again.
This is especially noticeable when we get new people here. They raise all the arguments appropriate of their side of the debate as if they are the only person who can see the truth, and apparently expecting the self-evident truth of their argument to sweep all before it, revealing the opponents to their view to be the at best idiots, and and at worst conspirators in a massive hoax.

If all new contributers spent time reviewing the history of this blog we'd have a lot less argument here I suspect.

And having said that and reviewed the blog I shall make no comments on GW myself :)

--Rakhal
What does academia of the world and all the players in Copenhagen have in common? They are effectively blind to temperature. As a professional with an engineering and electrical energy provision background, we use calculators for temperature considerations.

I read Anthony Watts information on the placement of weather stations and the bottom line is while the information is important it doesn't reflect what happens with development. Meteorology passes on the most important data for building design by supplying building codes with regional climatic data. The building and the energy systems used designed with that climate data so we don't impose on the atmosphere. The problem is all of it is signed off as compliant and insured.

We employ the most advanced infrared applications in the world because we investigate temperature at a molecular level. Professionals of many fields are provided sight of their temperature objectives that otherwise couldn't be seen. I lecture this in academia objectively and without a commercial objective.

We were asked to find the cause of urban heat islands and how they use massive energy production responding to them. Los Angeles alone is reported to spend over 100 million a year on energy responding to them. The results of years and seasons of work contradicted our own educations. Buildings were being radiated by the same sun that burns us. Buildings weren't addressing solar radiation the same way a weather station does by reflecting the sun's rays. Here is a link to show you basic infrared time-lapsed videos showing how urban heat islands are created as well as what happens inside the building. We documented building surfaces 201 deg F on a 95 deg F day without emissions produced. Urban Heat Islands

On a 23 deg. F Christmas Day, solar exposed building surfaces were 122 deg F and heating the atmosphere without emissions produced. We are dealing with this through governments but watch the colors on the exterior and chopping down trees allows the surface of the planet to be radiated.
1311. That's why I stopped.
1314. Grothar
Quoting atmoaggie:

Which one? I worked with Fuelberg on a project once upon a time...


Henry?
Quoting TampaSpin:


Now Doug you already know what 90% of this blog is and stands for.....LOL! And i know you know what i am saying! Watch the left turn really quickly toward the center for a while tonite.


Yeah there are a few knunkle heads on here for sure. A bunch of Al Gore followers.



Only action out there.
1317. Ossqss
Those darn clouds are throwing a curve in the science :)

Ozone hole healing could cause further climate warming

The hole in the ozone layer is now steadily closing, but its repair could actually increase warming in the southern hemisphere, according to scientists at the University of Leeds.

The Antarctic ozone hole was once regarded as one of the biggest environmental threats, but the discovery of a previously undiscovered feedback shows that it has instead helped to shield this region from carbon-induced warming over the past two decades.

High-speed winds in the area beneath the hole have led to the formation of brighter summertime clouds, which reflect more of the sun's powerful rays.

Press Release
Quoting Orcasystems:



Only action out there.


That's a big circulation.
Quoting Rakhal:
And having said that and reviewed the blog I shall make no comments on GW myself :)

--Rakhal

+1 !

Thanks for that.
Quoting Grothar:


Henry?

Yes. Dr. Henry Fuelberg. BS, MS, and PhD from guess where...

Likable guy, to boot.
Big Time Snow or Ice Storm coming to the Tennessee VAlley .......BIG TIME in the Mountains......Look at the precip and look at the Temperature forecast.....OUCH!





"Ozone hole healing could cause further climate warming"

Use more hairspray!


Quoting Jeff9641:


That's a big circulation.

It's going to suck in all that moisture and grow to a Cat 3.
Just watch
1317: At least that one comes from a new press release...
Quoting Jeff9641:


Yeah there are a few knunkle heads on here for sure. A bunch of Al Gore followers.


I put Al Gore's picture on a dartboard and use his face as the target. Its actually really fun. Should try it sometime.
96P

Quoting latitude25:
"Ozone hole healing could cause further climate warming"

Use more hairspray!



hairspray doesn't contain CFC's. CFC's have been banned, maybe admin should do that to a few people in here.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Big Time Snow or Ice Storm coming to the Tennessee VAlley .......BIG TIME in the Mountains......Look at the precip and look at the Temperature forecast.....OUCH!







Big rains on the way for Florida TampaSpin, could be a wet week starting Saturday.
Quoting AussieStorm:

It's going to suck in all that moisture and grow to a Cat 3.
Just watch


IF, it stays over the water long enough

Quoting Ossqss:
Those darn clouds are throwing a curve in the science :)

Ozone hole healing could cause further climate warming

The hole in the ozone layer is now steadily closing, but its repair could actually increase warming in the southern hemisphere, according to scientists at the University of Leeds.

The Antarctic ozone hole was once regarded as one of the biggest environmental threats, but the discovery of a previously undiscovered feedback shows that it has instead helped to shield this region from carbon-induced warming over the past two decades.

High-speed winds in the area beneath the hole have led to the formation of brighter summertime clouds, which reflect more of the sun's powerful rays.

Press Release


I would actually rather see the ozone layer heal than become further degraded since I really don't think anyone wants to deal with cosmic rays penetrating to the surface.
Quoting Nimitz:
WILL YOU PLEASE STOP ALL THE GLOBAL WARMING CRAP!!!!!

I come here a LOT. I mostly lurk. WU has been my best resource for finding out the weather forecast, providing me with timely information. That is, until the past week.
I think you must have visited a diffrent blog. Think again.
This discussion is there it just becomes more pronounced. During an active hurricane appraoching the GOM, many will focus on this topic. Now we have almost february and this is a great time to have indepth discussion on this topic.

Hower this topic will not go away. It will increase with the uptake of climate changes and related disasters, anomalys, casualties, catastrophes etc etc etc.

And don't forget that this discussion is so "Hot", because there are hired peeps who spread lies and discredit science for money. Crimes against humanity - please have the time and visit my blog and educate yourself.
Quoting cchsweatherman:


I put Al Gore's picture on a dartboard and use his face as the target. Its actually really fun. Should try it sometime.


LOL!!! I'll try that!
Quoting Jeff9641:


Yeah there are a few knunkle heads on here for sure. A bunch of Al Gore followers.


You think..Dam which one's.....LOL...J/K
Quoting AussieStorm:

It's going to suck in all that moisture and grow to a Cat 3.
Just watch

It isn't going to get there with that TCHP (assuming it is accurate, which is contentious in shelf waters)

And it would be more likely to spin up that well so quickly if it were a smaller circulation.
Quoting Rakhal:
Hmm, just spent a LOT of time reading through maybe a years-worth of posts on here and one thing I have noticed about the whole GW debate here is how repetitious it is! The same points are brought up again and again, each time as if this is some stunning new revelation in the debate. And the same responses are made again and again.
This is especially noticeable when we get new people here. They raise all the arguments appropriate of their side of the debate as if they are the only person who can see the truth, and apparently expecting the self-evident truth of their argument to sweep all before it, revealing the opponents to their view to be the at best idiots, and and at worst conspirators in a massive hoax.

If all new contributers spent time reviewing the history of this blog we'd have a lot less argument here I suspect.

And having said that and reviewed the blog I shall make no comments on GW myself :)

--Rakhal


Well I mean the blog above uses statistical analysis to address poorly submitted urban heat island concerns and shows their solutions.

The natural narrative and thousands of temp/climate proxies give a conclusive picture.

So yea I guess we still are left with warming which isnt new.

1336. Ossqss
1324, It might get discredited by the end of the day due to a funding source. That seems to be a big part of the peer-review process to qualify as legitimate science :)

L8R
Quoting Skyepony:
96P




















TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 29
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 pm CST [11:30 pm EST] Wednesday 27 January 2010

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Cape Shield
in the NT to Burketown in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt and Mornington
Island.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from Burketown to
Kowanyama in Queensland.

At 9:30 pm CST [10:00 pm EST] Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga was estimated to be 10
kilometres west southwest of Borroloola and 230 kilometres south of Groote
Eylandt, moving west northwest at 15 kilometres per hour.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga is forecast to move slowly offshore during Thursday
where it is expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between the
NT/Qld Border and Cape Shield, including Groote Eylandt, late on Thursday
morning. GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may extend as far east as
Burketown in Queensland, including Mornington Island, during Thursday if the
developing cyclone follows a more easterly track.

GALES are not expected between Burketown and Kowanyama within the next 24 hours.
However, GALES may develop late on Friday or early Saturday

HEAVY RAIN may lead to significant stream rises and flooding of low-lying areas
in the Roper-McArthur and Arnhem districts.

Abnormally high tides are expected between the NT Border and Burketown tonight
and Thursday, where the sea level may exceed the highest tide of the year on the
largest tide of the day. Large waves are likely along the beachfront.

People between Burketown in Queensland and Cape Shield, including Groote Eylandt
and Mornington Island, in the Northern Territory should take precautions and
listen to the next advice at 2 am CST [2:30am EST]. If you are unsure about
precautions to be taken, information is available from your local government or
local State Emergency Service.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga at 9:30 pm CST [10:00 pm EST]:
.Centre located near...... 16.1 degrees South 136.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 95 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 993 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am CST Thursday 28 January [2:30 am EST
Thursday 28 January].
Quoting Jeff9641:


Big rains on the way for Florida TampaSpin, could be a wet week starting Saturday.



Ya it sucks! Gasparilla is this Saturday...Forecast appears to be very bad just as the event starts......Hopefully the timing of the Rains can stay away until very late in the evening....Hopefully a road block can be set up for some type of dalay of the front.
Wow we do need new posters here and the ignore is nice. After five that dont really contribute any information are gone the blog is empty. Shame good people have until now been turned away though by bullies and cliques.
"hairspray doesn't contain CFC's"

It was just a joke!

I think my PC is going crazy. A lot of strange clicking noises...
Quoting Ossqss:
1324, It might get discredited by the end of the day due to a funding source. That seems to be a big part of the peer-review process to qualify as legitimate science :)

L8R



Yes OSS in the educated world it is. Its just how its done. They really cant make science from blog opinions.
i never post on blog but i say to much bickering is happening on a bogus subject
"i never post on blog but i say to much bickering is happening on a bogus subject"

Think of it as a bunch of kids, running around with these:

Quoting JFLORIDA:
Wow we do need new posters here and the ignore is nice. After five that dont really contribute any information are gone the blog is empty. Shame good people have until now been turned away though by bullies and cliques.


Are you Qualified..........ROFLMAO
So how does climate work ? Its climate science Unfortunately those majoring in Met are going to have to go through some kind of science based climatology I fear and the atmospheric chemistry/physics of radiant heat transfer is the only thing going now. There is no "I dont want to talk about this" with reality.

GW actually makes the earth habitable.

Right Atmo?
Wow, is the RAMMB/CIRA OHC different from the TCHP...and not just a little, either.

(thanks, Aussie, forgot to check this one)



From: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/sp.html

Maybe related to that depth thing I mentioned.
I think 96P is 10P now..
the 00z and 12z of the GFS where vary wet for N CA and S CA looks like we will be doing this all overe
Quoting GodisinControl:
i never post on blog but i say to much bickering is happening on a bogus subject


BOGUS.........not seen that word used for a while....I like it tho!
Quoting atmoaggie:
Wow, is the RAMMB/CIRA OHC different from the TCHP...and not just a little, either.

(thanks, Aussie, forgot to check this one)



From: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/sp.html

Maybe related to that depth thing I mentioned.

I always check the OHN. I forgot to post the shear maps







Quoting TampaSpin:


Are you Qualified..........ROFLMAO


LOL I asked that question once :P
GW actually makes the earth habitable.

Yes without the magic of greenhouse gas it would be way too cold for most..

Here's another of 10P

Looks pretty gamely..
Quoting tornadodude:


LOL I asked that question once :P


Matt now be nice! You need to graduate...LOL
Quoting JFLORIDA:
So how does climate work ? Its climate science Unfortunately those majoring in Met are going to have to go through some kind of science based climatology I fear and the atmospheric chemistry/physics of radiant heat transfer is the only thing going now.

GW actually makes the earth habitable.

Right Atmo?

Right (greenhouse gases, that is)

And relevant required courses for a met/atmo sci BS degree at A&M include:
Physical Climatology (that means the physics of climatology; I refer back to the text once every couple of months or so)
Atmo Physics (including radiative transfer)
Atmo chem (required about a year after I optionally took it)

Optional:
Air pollution Met
Numerical weather prediction
Global climate change

(I took all of the above, and 1900-guy could update what I list-possible I am mistaken as to what is optional or not)

Cannot speak to what others schools require/offer, but I would have to say that A&M offered everything one could hope for relevant to the subject. And those were all available to undergrads, even.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Matt now be nice! You need to graduate...LOL



LOL nah :p jk
Quoting TampaSpin:


BOGUS.........not seen that word used for a while....I like it tho!



The bogosities abound.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



The bogosities abound.


bogus bogosities
Sky you said last night you was using Satellite feeds to watch for Earthquakes in Haiti.....How are you doing that. Can you explain please.
mornin' all!
here comes more snow :P

I'm off to bed, Kids are back to school for the start of the new school year. Goodnight all.
Tampa, What do you think of TL OLGA???
Quoting AussieStorm:
I'm off to bed, Kids are back to school for the start of the new school year. Goodnight all.
Tampa, What do you think of TL OLGA???


have a good one Aussie
Quoting TampaSpin:


Matt now be nice! You need to graduate...LOL


Everytime I come on the blog it seems as JFLORIDA is always attacking somebody. People are allowed to have there own opinion.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Right (greenhouse gases, that is)

And relevant required courses for a met/atmo sci BS degree at A&M include:
Physical Climatology (I refer back to the text once every couple of months or so)
Atmo Physics (including radiative transfer)
Atmo chem (required about a year after I optionally took it)

Optional:
Air pollution Met
Numerical weather prediction
Global climate change

(I took all of the above)

Cannot speak to what others schools require/offer, but I would have to say that A&M offered everything one could hope for relevant to the subject. And those were all available to undergrads, even.


I think that is important to say no matter what you should be able to get something out of any conversation.
Gonna go play chess online for little while. It's been a slice....
Quoting AussieStorm:

I always check the OHN. I forgot to post the shear maps









I agree Aussie watchout once that circulation gets over water. A very nice circulation.
Quoting GodisinControl:
i never post on blog but i say to much bickering is happening on a bogus subject

Us inteligence, God, ehm the vatican, Scientist and the majority of the people have identified climate change as a threat.

Pope Benedict: environmental crisis requires review of world's economic model

the Pope asks: "Can we remain indifferent before the problems associated with such realities as climate change, desertification, the deterioration and loss of productivity in vast agricultural areas, the pollution of rivers and aquifers, the loss of biodiversity, the increase of natural catastrophes and the deforestation of equatorial and tropical regions? Can we disregard the growing phenomenon of 'environmental refugees', people who are forced by the degradation of their natural habitat to forsake it - and often their possessions as well - in order to face the dangers and uncertainties of forced displacement?"

Highlighting that these environmental problems are intricately linked to the world's current economic model, the Pope calls for a "a profound, long-term review of our model of development, one which would take into consideration the meaning of the economy and its goals with an eye to correcting its malfunctions and misapplications."

One way to achieve this according to the Pope is "to move beyond a purely consumerist mentality in order to promote forms of agricultural and industrial production capable of respecting creation and satisfying the primary needs of all."

"Natural resources should be used in such a way that immediate benefits do not have a negative impact on living creatures, human and not, present and future; that the protection of private property does not conflict with the universal destination of goods; that human activity does not compromise the fruitfulness of the earth, for the benefit of people now and in the future," the Pope writes.

http://news.mongabay.com/2009/1215-hance_benedict.html
It is strange how no one has a AGW position on this blog. Cliques are fine but when they become abusive and exclusionary its gone too far.

Admin is pretty good here if you keep them informed.
I took archery as a PE @ UGA...that was pretty cool...
Quoting Jeff9641:


Everytime I come on the blog it seems as JFLORIDA is always attacking somebody. People are allowed to have there on opinion.


but if your opinion isn't my opinion then you're wrong ;) jk lol
Quoting presslord:
I took archery as a PE @ UGA...that was pretty cool...


need some practice? :P

got some kids down the hall who like to be obnoxious at 4 in the morning Lol
Quoting presslord:
I took archery as a PE @ UGA...that was pretty cool...

I took racquetball. Learned a lot in there about physics...
Quoting Jeff9641:


Everytime I come on the blog it seems as JFLORIDA is always attacking somebody. People are allowed to have there on opinion.

There is having an opinion and trying to shove that opinion down someone that doesn't agrees throat.

Goodnight
Quoting atmoaggie:
I think my PC is going crazy. A lot of strange clicking noises...


A penny in the fan?
Quoting Floodman:


A penny in the fan?

LOL.
Quoting tornadodude:


but if your opinion isn't my opinion then you're wrong ;) jk lol


Yeah, It's alright for everyone to have an opinion but in a civil manner. JF takes it too far sometimes.
Quoting atmoaggie:
I think my PC is going crazy. A lot of strange clicking noises...

Maybe you got hacked?

Oil companies hit by 'state' cyber attacks

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/01/25/oil_companies_attacked/

Quoting tornadodude:


bogus bogosities


double negative: bogus bogosities would be non-bogus...
Certainly everyone should have an opinion - but denigrating others because they request sources - legitimate ones, or wish to discus something that is not the "in" opinion - is unacceptable.

No university would tolerate the behavior here - this is a casual forum but I think it is still good to keep the same requirements for sources - as it is a science field.

Being disrespectful to the blogs author is ridiculous - really. You are a guest here. If you have a problem with the topic you should be able to express yourself within the parameters of the field.

Quoting AussieStorm:
I'm off to bed, Kids are back to school for the start of the new school year. Goodnight all.
Tampa, What do you think of TL OLGA???


Aussie have a good sleep my friend. I actually only follow what you post......That is one crazy loop its gonna do....will be interesting to see if it emerges back over water what happens again.......Keep up your great work on keeping us updated. Your Awsome Dude. I take a break this time of year and try as hard as i can to be a troublemaker during these Atlantic slow times.....LOL.....NITE BRO!
Quoting presslord:
I took archery as a PE @ UGA...that was pretty cool...


press as Robin Hood...LOL

How do you look in green tights?
1384. Ossqss
How did you know her name was Penny, LoL

Quoting Floodman:


double negative: bogus bogosities would be non-bogus...


well arent you a smart... :P just playing, how ya doing?
Quoting Ossqss:
How did you know her name was Penny, LoL



LOL that's great
Quoting tornadodude:


well arent you a smart... :P just playing, how ya doing?


Not too bad...hey, shouldn't be in class or something? LOL
Quoting Ossqss:
How did you know her name was Penny, LoL



Yep, that would cause some clicks and such...
Quoting Floodman:


Not too bad...hey, shouldn't be in class or something? LOL


LOL just got out a little while ago
Quoting tornadodude:


LOL just got out a little while ago


Lol...okay then; just checking up on you
Quoting TampaSpin:


BOGUS.........not seen that word used for a while....I like it tho!


the use of that word is acurate for me because i believe God is in control of the earth and i have nothing to fear such as a man made hoax
Quoting Floodman:


Lol...okay then; just checking up on you


thanks Lol although it is time to grab a bite to eat, so I'll bbl guys
A full rehash of Katrina's surge, newly published in a journal and available for free (follow link near bottom)

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2010-01/e-afa012710.php

From press release:

Oxford, UK, 27 January, 2010 - A recent special edition of the Elsevier journal Ocean Engineering provides an analysis of the impact of Hurricane Katrina and an overview of the lessons learned in the aftermath of the disaster.

Hurricane Katrina was the most destructive natural disaster in U.S. history. Katrina's size was larger than most hurricanes, and its storm surge affected the greatest area, nearly 93,000 square miles. Katrina's winds and storm surge overwhelmed the protective infrastructure in and around the city of New Orleans, flooding nearly 80 percent of the city.

Between September 2005 and September 2006, an Interagency Performance Evaluation Task (IPET) force, consisting of inter-government agencies, academics and private industry contributors, conducted a study that analyzed the performance of flood protection systems, following the devastation caused by Hurricane Katrina throughout the coastal areas of Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama and Texas.

The Guest Editors of this special issue of Ocean Engineering are Zeki Demirbilek and Donald T. Resio of the Coastal & Hydraulics Laboratory, U.S. Army Engineer R&D Center and Robert G. Dean of the Department of Civil and Coastal Engineering, University of Florida. This special issue of Ocean Engineering presents key findings from research and engineering works conducted by the IPET task force to scientific and engineering communities worldwide. The aim is to provide a forum for scientific dialogue and exchange of information that has emerged from the IPET study and to help prepare for and deal with potential consequences of severe hurricanes in the future.

Guest Editor Zeki Demirbilek commented, "This Special Issue is important as it provides scientists and decision-makers with valuable data and peer-reviewed engineering tools and procedures for analysis and characterization of extreme meteorological and oceanographic events such as Hurricane Katrina. The thirteen papers provide useful lessons learned from independent and critical assessments conducted by experts. The special issue will serve as a comprehensive guide for planners at all levels of government, engineers and scientists developing predictive modeling capabilities and emergency plans for hurricanes."
Quoting GodisinControl:


the use of that word is acurate for me because i believe God is in control of the earth and i have nothing to fear such as a man made hoax


Good morning. Yes, I do believe ultimately, God is in control. However, we humans have "free will", and at the moment, we are busy pumping trillions of tons of CO2 into our atmosphere, which, in my opinion is "bad stewardship".
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

Us inteligence, God, ehm the vatican, Scientist and the majority of the people have identified climate change as a threat.

Pope Benedict: environmental crisis requires review of world's economic model

the Pope asks: "Can we remain indifferent before the problems associated with such realities as climate change, desertification, the deterioration and loss of productivity in vast agricultural areas, the pollution of rivers and aquifers, the loss of biodiversity, the increase of natural catastrophes and the deforestation of equatorial and tropical regions? Can we disregard the growing phenomenon of 'environmental refugees', people who are forced by the degradation of their natural habitat to forsake it - and often their possessions as well - in order to face the dangers and uncertainties of forced displacement?"

Highlighting that these environmental problems are intricately linked to the world's current economic model, the Pope calls for a "a profound, long-term review of our model of development, one which would take into consideration the meaning of the economy and its goals with an eye to correcting its malfunctions and misapplications."

One way to achieve this according to the Pope is "to move beyond a purely consumerist mentality in order to promote forms of agricultural and industrial production capable of respecting creation and satisfying the primary needs of all."

"Natural resources should be used in such a way that immediate benefits do not have a negative impact on living creatures, human and not, present and future; that the protection of private property does not conflict with the universal destination of goods; that human activity does not compromise the fruitfulness of the earth, for the benefit of people now and in the future," the Pope writes.

http://news.mongabay.com/2009/1215-hance_benedict.html


i am not catholic so i do not care what the vatican says on the subject
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

Reported for abusive spam. ( As several other post with identical content). Looks like tornadodude has a new tactic to disrupt the weather and climate discussions. I encourage other people to report him as well and ignore him.


are you kidding me???
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

Us inteligence, God, ehm the vatican, Scientist and the majority of the people have identified climate change as a threat.


Majority of the People is far from being even close to being accurate.
1401. Nimitz
Quoting JFLORIDA:
It is strange how no one has a AGW position on this blog. Cliques are fine but when they become abusive and exclusionary its gone too far.

Admin is pretty good here if you keep them informed.


Maybe it's because it's well understood that the only way to get rid of a troll is to ignore it? And no, you don't know my stand on AGW
Quoting TampaSpin:
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

Us inteligence, God, ehm the vatican, Scientist and the majority of the people have identified climate change as a threat.


Majority of the People is far from being even close to being accurate.


careful, he might tattle on you :P
Quoting TampaSpin:
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

Us inteligence, God, ehm the vatican, Scientist and the majority of the people have identified climate change as a threat.


Majority of the People is far from being even close to being accurate.


Global poll finds 73% want higher priority for climate change

Britons among the most enthusiastic about action to stop global warming, while Americans among least willing to put environment first, according to global public opinion poll
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jul/30/climate-change-us
:p it is cold here
There goes that clicking noise again...

"-"
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

Reported for abusive spam. ( As several other post with identical content). Looks like tornadodude has a new tactic to disrupt the weather and climate discussions. I encourage other people to report him as well and ignore him.


I have no problem Tornadodude maybe it's you.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:


Global poll finds 73% want higher priority for climate change

Britons among the most enthusiastic about action to stop global warming, while Americans among least willing to put environment first, according to global public opinion poll
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jul/30/climate-change-us


Like that poll is as accurate as all the Temperature readings that Scientist are using to report GW....Whatever!.....Found another to add to the ignore button or not to repeat!
Quoting TampaSpin:
Would everyone just ignore a certain Blogger or put him on Ignore......DO NOT Acknowledge him or repost anything he post please. If i had said his name it would be a personal attack but the initials start with JFL


please tell me how to do this
Quoting GodisinControl:


please tell me how to do this


Just click the ignore user button just under the individuals name......then you won't see anymore post from them......it works great.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Just click the ignore user button just under the individuals name......then you won't see anymore post from them......it works great.

The problem will not go away by ignoring the facts ;)
Quoting TampaSpin:


Just click the ignore user button just under the individuals name......then you won't see anymore post from them......it works great.


thank you i would also like to do this for another also
At some point, certain posters should be responded to by the post number, as opposed to a full quote, such as our theologian doctor (hah!) friend.

Example:

9999: That post was so bad it makes anything intelligent you might have to say occur in a vacuum as most of us will have put you on the iggy long before you do come up with something worth reading. *poof*
do not let others steal your joy
omg lol
1418: Too much, lay off it. At some point, you guys will approach hypocrisy...
ROFLMAO......HOLLY COW!
all i see is a red x i do not see a picture
I can't wait to look at tomorrows drought monitor to see the drought still in California and Arizona. Last year this NOAA site showed Florida with a severe drought after storm after storm came thru the state.
Many areas of Florida received more than 12 inches of rain.
The storms covered the whole state for about three weeks.
There were flood warnings in many cities throughout Florida, yet, this government site said Florida was still in a severe drought.
I hope they tell the truth on Tomorrows forcast.
Seems there is an agenda with this Agency for posting such forecast and historical data!
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
Maybe you join the club of "people without arguments". Btw, bye bye barney.


bye barney as well, see we agree on one thing
pass the popcorn please, thanks
Quoting tornadodude:


bye barney as well, see we agree on one thing
Actualy i'm surprised that you state this. Thanks and i have to agree.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
Actualy i'm surprised that you state this. Thanks and i have to agree.


just curious, but why are you surprised?
1430. McBill
Quoting atmoaggie:

Pielke, R. A., et al. (2007), Unresolved issues with the assessment of multidecadal global land surface temperature trends, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D24S08, doi:10.1029/2006JD008229.

Abstract: This paper documents various unresolved issues in using surface temperature trends as a metric for assessing global and regional climate change. A series of examples ranging from errors caused by temperature measurements at a monitoring station to the undocumented biases in the regionally and globally averaged time series are provided. The issues are poorly understood or documented and relate to micrometeorological impacts due to warm bias in nighttime minimum temperatures, poor siting of the instrumentation, effect of winds as well as surface atmospheric water vapor content on temperature trends, the quantification of uncertainties in the homogenization of surface temperature data, and the influence of land use/land cover (LULC) change on surface temperature trends. Because of the issues presented in this paper related to the analysis of multidecadal surface temperature we recommend that greater, more complete documentation and quantification of these issues be required for all observation stations that are intended to be used in such assessments. This is necessary for confidence in the actual observations of surface temperature variability and long-term trends.

17 university profs as authors, including my friend Dr N-G at A&M, also associated with outing the Himalaya glacial claims...

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2006JD008229.shtml

Hey, is AGU on the industry funded wiki list? What about JGR? I wonder if that is peer-reviewed...

Well, it took me a little while to go through this paper and realize that it did not at all address your assertion, namely:

"Most of the stations that show no warming are rural ones, if that is what you are asking. Which takes away from the CO2-forcing argument, actually, as CO2 is a well-distributed gas and should have the same effect at rural stations as urban/suburban stations.

But that wasn't the point. Point was, there are a lot of stations that do not show any warming, as opposed to Astro's thought on the matter."


I'm guessing that you didn't think I'd bother to take the time to pull the paper and read it.

So, can you provide any references that actually support your claims? And maybe hold the snark this time.

Quoting atmoaggie:
1418: Too much, lay off it. At some point, you guys will approach hypocrisy...


Well past it already...as much as I would hate to cut off half of the discussion, the ridiculous nature of some of the posts are really leaving me with no choice...
Quoting tornadodude:


just curious, but why are you surprised?
That we agree! There is still hope for the opther topics ;)
I guess we cover those later tornadodude.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
That we agree! There is still hope for the other topics ;)
I guess we cover those later tornadodude.


I was surprised as well. but hey, we will get to those another time. thanks :)
In response to atmoaggie's post McBill just pointed out something crucial. And once again this comes with no surprise.


McBill posted


Well, it took me a little while to go through this paper and realize that it did not at all address your assertion, namely:

"Most of the stations that show no warming are rural ones, if that is what you are asking. Which takes away from the CO2-forcing argument, actually, as CO2 is a well-distributed gas and should have the same effect at rural stations as urban/suburban stations.

But that wasn't the point. Point was, there are a lot of stations that do not show any warming, as opposed to Astro's thought on the matter."

I'm guessing that you didn't think I'd bother to take the time to pull the paper and read it.

So, can you provide any references that actually support your claims? And maybe hold the snark this time.

1431. Floodman 11:26 AM EST on January 27, 2010

ARe you in Taxas now! Looks like some snow heading that direction again.

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
424 AM CST WED JAN 27 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS...

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER ALL OF NORTH TEXAS. AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD POLAR AIRMASS WILL UNDERCUT THE
RAINFALL FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CAUSE NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO DIP BELOW FREEZING WHILE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL
ALLOWING ICE TO ACCUMULATE ON ELEVATED SURFACES. AS THE COLD AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LIQUID ON THE GROUND WILL
FREEZE AND FALLING PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW.

TXZ091-092-100>102-115-116-271830-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WS.A.0001.100129T0200Z-100130T0000Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...GRAHAM...
OLNEY...JACKSBORO...DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...BRECKENRIDGE...
MINERAL WELLS
424 AM CST WED JAN 27 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDERCUT BY A STRONG POLAR
AIRMASS LATE THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AS RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ALLOWING FOR
THE ACCUMULATION OF ICE INITIALLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND
POWER LINES. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ICE
MAY ALSO ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS IN CONTACT WITH THE GROUND.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS THE COLDER
AIR MOVES INTO NORTH TEXAS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT. AREAS THAT WILL LIKELY SEE SIGNIFICANT ICING LOOK TO BE
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A MINERAL WELLS TO GAINESVILLE LINE AT
THIS TIME. THESE AREAS MAY SEE UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE
ACCUMULATION ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS AND POWER LINES BEFORE
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES TO FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY MORNING.

WITH NORTH WINDS FORECAST TO BE AT 10 TO 20 MPH...SOME DAMAGE TO
POWER LINES IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. AREA ROADWAYS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME ICY...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA
OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL WINTER
STORM.

i cant remember when texas had this many winter storms in a year
Lafayette, Purdue University Airport
Lat: 40.43 Lon: -86.93 Elev: 623
Last Update on Jan 27, 10:54 am EST

Mostly Cloudy

21 °F
(-6 °C)
Humidity: 65 %
Wind Speed: W 8 MPH
Barometer: 30.25" (1025.3 mb)
Dewpoint: 11 °F (-12 °C)
Wind Chill: 11 °F (-12 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.

I am supposed to get an inch of snow tonight
hello. just wondering where bordnaro is, lookin for some input into the upcoming winter storm for nc..
This is one big storm coming into the Tennessee Valley region and then into the North Carolina area......could be a lot of ice and freezing rain....which means no POWER FOR DAYS possibly......be prepared for such an event.



GOES-13 Status Update


***GOES-13 is scheduled to replace GOES-12 as the GOES-East operational
spacecraft on April 14, 2010***
The exact time to be determined, but likely in the 1800-1900Z time
frame.

This message is to provide information on a planned transition from
GOES-12 to GOES-13 as the operational GOES-East spacecraft. ***GOES-13
is scheduled to replace GOES-12 as the GOES-East operational spacecraft
on April 14, 2010***. GOES-13, launched on May 24, 2006, is the first
in the series of GOES-N satellites (GOES-14 was launched on June 27,
2009 and GOES-P is scheduled to be launched no earlier than March 1,
2010). This series will carry the 5 channel imager and 19 channel
sounder similar to the GOES-I through M series, with some differences.
GOES-13 carried the same imager and sounder payload as GOES-12, but the
new spacecraft bus will allow it to operate through eclipse and
keep out zone periods and images will have increased navigation, registration and radiometric accuracy.
Quoting gregpinehurstnc:
hello. just wondering where bordnaro is, lookin for some input into the upcoming winter storm for nc..


Good Morning, I am here, I will post a link below from Allan Hoffman, meteorologist out of Raleigh, NC and his morning blog article, enjoy :0)

Link
Alright,

This message has been long overdue.

To Jeff Masters and the entire blog:

Over the past couple of days, I have immaturely engaged in several debates that have resulted in many personal attacks that were uncalled for. Never is it okay for me or anyone to combat an argument with an attack on someone. For that, I am sorry. I have been a big part in disrupting the blog, and I have not responsibly upheld the standards that are set in the rules. I specifically owe an apology to JFLORIDA and drg0dOwnCountry. I do disagree with your arguments for the most part, but never should I have let that become personal. I am sorry. This blog is a wonderful place to learn many things about the weather and the climate, and if we want it to continue to be so, then we are all going to have to stop the immature bull around here. This blog has been key to getting Portlight rolling in a major way, and if we continue to act in this manner that we have displayed lately, many people who come to check out the site will turn away. I am as guilty as anyone of this.

again, wunderground community,

I'm sorry,

Matt
Quoting tornadodude:

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
424 AM CST WED JAN 27 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS...

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER ALL OF NORTH TEXAS. AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD POLAR AIRMASS WILL UNDERCUT THE
RAINFALL FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL CAUSE NEAR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO DIP BELOW FREEZING WHILE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL
ALLOWING ICE TO ACCUMULATE ON ELEVATED SURFACES. AS THE COLD AIR
CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LIQUID ON THE GROUND WILL
FREEZE AND FALLING PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW.

TXZ091-092-100>102-115-116-271830-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WS.A.0001.100129T0200Z-100130T0000Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...GRAHAM...
OLNEY...JACKSBORO...DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...BRECKENRIDGE...
MINERAL WELLS
424 AM CST WED JAN 27 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDERCUT BY A STRONG POLAR
AIRMASS LATE THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AS RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ALLOWING FOR
THE ACCUMULATION OF ICE INITIALLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND
POWER LINES. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ICE
MAY ALSO ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS IN CONTACT WITH THE GROUND.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS THE COLDER
AIR MOVES INTO NORTH TEXAS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT. AREAS THAT WILL LIKELY SEE SIGNIFICANT ICING LOOK TO BE
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A MINERAL WELLS TO GAINESVILLE LINE AT
THIS TIME. THESE AREAS MAY SEE UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE
ACCUMULATION ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS AND POWER LINES BEFORE
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES TO FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY MORNING.

WITH NORTH WINDS FORECAST TO BE AT 10 TO 20 MPH...SOME DAMAGE TO
POWER LINES IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. AREA ROADWAYS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME ICY...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA
OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL WINTER
STORM.



T Dude, no problem, we'll flog you later :0)
Quoting McBill:

Well, it took me a little while to go through this paper and realize that it did not at all address your assertion, namely:

"Most of the stations that show no warming are rural ones, if that is what you are asking. Which takes away from the CO2-forcing argument, actually, as CO2 is a well-distributed gas and should have the same effect at rural stations as urban/suburban stations.

But that wasn't the point. Point was, there are a lot of stations that do not show any warming, as opposed to Astro's thought on the matter."


I'm guessing that you didn't think I'd bother to take the time to pull the paper and read it.

So, can you provide any references that actually support your claims? And maybe hold the snark this time.


Oh, that shows a lot of good information about the limitations and land use effects.

Here are some others that do a little more, with respect to the urban vs. rural effect:

Impact of urbanization and land-use change on climate
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v423/n6939/full/nature01675.html

Urbanization Effects on Observed Surface Air Temperature Trends in North China
http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?request=get-abstract&doi=10.1175%2F2007JCLI1348.1

Quantifying the influence of anthropogenic surface processes and inhomogeneities on gridded global climate data
http://www.webcommentary.com/docs/rrm-pjm-1207.pdf


Impacts of land use land cover on temperature trends over the continental United States: assessment using the North American Regional Reanalysis
https://dods.atmos.umd.edu/~ekalnay/FalletalLULCoverUS2009.pdf
(I will admit that I am rereading this last one when I get the chance...)

As to my original statement "Most of the stations that show no warming at all are rural ones", well, I cannot sit in here and post hundreds of data plots from rural stations. I suggest spending a day at the GISS site, caveats about their methods and the GHCN raw data aside.

Here is a tiny sample of such in a blog: http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/GW_Part3_UrbanHeat.htm

And in the other direction:

Assessment of Urban Versus Rural In Situ Surface Temperatures in the Contiguous United States: No Difference Found
http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?request=get-abstract&doi=10.1175%2F1520-0442(2003)0162941:AO UVRI2.0.CO%3B2

There are many more of both flavors, of course.
Quoting PcolaDan:






I know you're enjoy the show here on the blog. Popcorn looks good!
Quoting Bordonaro:


I know you're enjoy the show here on the blog. Popcorn looks good!


thanks Bob :P

and on that note, finally time for lunch :)
Quoting tornadodude:


Quoting tornadodude:
Alright,

This message has been long overdue.

To Jeff Masters and the entire blog:

Over the past couple of days, I have immaturely engaged in several debates that have resulted in many personal attacks that were uncalled for. Never is it okay for me or anyone to combat an argument with an attack on someone. For that, I am sorry. I have been a big part in disrupting the blog, and I have not responsibly upheld the standards that are set in the rules. I specifically owe an apology to JFLORIDA and drg0dOwnCountry. I do disagree with your arguments for the most part, but never should I have let that become personal. I am sorry. This blog is a wonderful place to learn many things about the weather and the climate, and if we want it to continue to be so, then we are all going to have to stop the immature bull around here. This blog has been key to getting Portlight rolling in a major way, and if we continue to act in this manner that we have displayed lately, many people who come to check out the site will turn away. I am as guilty as anyone of this.

again, wunderground community,

I'm sorry,

Matt
You surprise me again. Apology accepted.
1451. Patrap
01/27/2010
GETTING MORE HELP

A search and rescue corpsman and U.S. Navy Lt Cmdr. Robert Propes carry a 7-year-old Haitian boy from a Sea Hawk helicopter for medical evaluation at Terminal Varreux, Port-au-Prince, Haiti, Jan. 25, 2010. The station opened recently as a medical gateway for Haitians to gain access to medical treatments aboard naval vessels at anchor in port. Propes is a medical officer from the Military Sealift Command hospital ship USNS Comfort. U.S. Navy photo by Petty Officer 3rd Class Timothy Wilson





5,000-Bed Hospital to Increase Haitian Medical Capacity

By John J. Kruzel
American Forces Press Service
WASHINGTON, Jan. 26, 2010. International relief workers in Haiti are developing a 5,000-bed hospital in the capital of Port-au-Prince to increase medical capacity as the country struggles to recover two weeks after a devastating earthquake struck.

Among other facilities, the hospital will accept patients from the floating hospital ship USNS Comfort, where more than 100 surgeries have been performed since arriving at the Haitian coast last week.

Though still some weeks away from becoming fully operational, U.S. medical equipment that will outfit the additional hospital in northern Port-au-Prince has begun to arrive, Army Lt. Gen. P.K. Keen, the top U.S. commander in Haiti, told Pentagon reporters today.

We are anticipating to at least get the seeds of that hospital up within the next week or so, but that we'll begin small and then grow from there, Keen said via teleconference from Haiti. We are hoping to be able to at least start with a 250-man centerpiece.

Haitian authorities have said more than 150,000 bodies have been buried in Haiti since a magnitude 7 earthquake devastated the country Jan. 12. Original estimates by the Red Cross were that upwards of 3 million Haitians were affected.

International aid continues pouring into Haiti in the midst of what an official called one of the greatest humanitarian emergencies in the history of the Americas. Among those assets is the USNS Comfort, on which U.S. medical personnel has taken aboard nearly 400 patients, performed more than 100 surgeries and filled more than 11,800 prescriptions since its Jan. 20 arrival.

Keen said the Haitian government quickly granted a request for a large piece of land -- situated near the hospital ship and also accessible by road -- that could host the 5,000-bed hospital. A principal source of the incoming patients will come from the Comfort, he added.

We want to continue to see a flow of patients that need that critical care that the Comfort offers, and then take patients off of her that do not need that any longer, in order to maximize the utility of the Comfort, Keen said.

The general said nongovernment organizations are determining who will man the hospital once it opens its doors to patients, with the United States playing the role of advisors and assistants in what Keen characterized as a joint venture.

[The organizations] are responding, in terms of being able to manage the hospital and in being able to staff the hospital, he said. We are enabling that by working with the international community to procure tinnage and all the things that you can imagine you need in order to build a hospital of that magnitude.
Quoting PcolaDan:



Re: t-dude's post, hopefully, maturity begets maturity...

Well done, my boy.
Quoting Bordonaro:


I know you're enjoy the show here on the blog. Popcorn looks good!


Yep, easily amused.
Quoting TampaSpin:
1431. Floodman 11:26 AM EST on January 27, 2010

ARe you in Taxas now! Looks like some snow heading that direction again.


The newest model runs show Florida getting some incredible rain. It will not be out of the question for many areas over the Florida Penisula to pick up 10". The storms look to start Saturday then continue off and on thru next Firday. The average precip. for Orlando in Feb. is 2.4" and it looks like we will blow that out of the water.
Thanks for 1440 TampaSpin!

I've been looking for some news concerning the amount of snow that expected in VA this weekend.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Re: t-dude's post, hopefully, maturity begets maturity...

Well done, my boy.


thanks,

I was just sick of it, and I know many others were as well
GOOD MORNING, WUnderland, from my "mixed" family to yours --

Day of Atonement (Yom Kippur)
Saturday, September 18, 2010

from www.catholic.com
Minor or venial sins can be confessed directly to God...
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
GOOD MORNING, WUnderland, from my "mixed" family to yours --

Day of Atonement (Yom Kippur)
Saturday, September 18, 2010

from www.catholic.com
Minor or venial sins can be confessed directly to God
...


Lol good afternoon, I'll work on that
1459. McBill
"As to my original statement "Most of the stations that show no warming at all are rural ones", well, I cannot sit in here and post hundreds of data plots from rural stations. I suggest spending a day at the GISS site, caveats about their methods and the GHCN raw data aside."

So, to be clear, you can't provide a reference to back up your claim.

You could have said that to begin with rather than wasting folks time.
Quoting pastagirl:
Thanks for 1440 TampaSpin!

I've been looking for some news concerning the amount of snow that expected in VA this weekend.


yeah im supposed to get 14 inches here! cant wait!!


(yellow numbers is POP)
Quoting tornadodude:


thanks,

I was just sick of it, and I know many others were as well


Good Job!! I try not to engage in GW talks and stick to current weather.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #3
TROPICAL CYCLONE NISHA (06F)
3:00 AM FST January 28 2010
===================================

At 15:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Nisha (995 hPa) located at 15.7S 169.5W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots expected to increase to 40 knots in the next 6-12 hours. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 12 knots. Position FAIR based on multispectral enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation and peripheral observations.

Gale Force Winds
===============
within 120 NM from the center in sectors from southeast to southwest and within 60 NM from the center elsewhere.

Deep convection remains persistent. Organization and outflow aloft remains good. Nisha lies under an upper ridge axis along a monsoon trough in a low sheared environment. System remains in a region of strong diffluence enhanced by a short-wave trouhg to the west. A northwest monsoonal surge continues to feed into the system. Sea surface temperatures is around 30C. Nisha is being steered southeast under a northwest steering field into an area of decreasing shear.

Dvorak based on LOG 10 spiral yielding..

DT=3.0, PT=3.0. FT based on DT.. thus

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/12HRS

Global models agree on a southeast track intially and further intensification before recurving it northeast.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 17.1S 168.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 18.1S 167.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 19.5S 165.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2)

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC NISHA WILL BE ISSUED AT AROUND 20:30 PM UTC...
Quoting tornadodude:


Lol good afternoon, I'll work on that


Whoops, it IS afternoon...
I think you already did, re your post #1443.

I have to look up "venial," though! (:
I imagine that I'll probably have a ban anytime tho Lol
The good news with all of this rain on the way for Florida is that Lake Okechobee is still down a little. Lake Okechobee is a major source of water for all of S FL.
Quoting tornadodude:
I imagine that I'll probably have a ban anytime tho Lol


Your fine don't worry.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Your fine don't worry.


hope so :p
Quoting Jeff9641:


The newest model runs show Florida getting some incredible rain. It will not be out of the question for many areas over the Florida Penisula to pick up 10". The storms look to start Saturday then continue off and on thru next Firday. The average precip. for Orlando in Feb. is 2.4" and it looks like we will blow that out of the water.


Okay, that is exciting. Thanks :)
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


yeah im supposed to get 14 inches here! cant wait!!


Wow! I have a feeling we're going to end up with more than that here in Madison County.

Maybe I should go to the Co-op and get a saucer!
Quoting pastagirl:


Wow! I have a feeling we're going to end up with more than that here in Madison County.

Maybe I should go to the Co-op and get a saucer!


Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
GOOD MORNING, WUnderland, from my "mixed" family to yours --

Day of Atonement (Yom Kippur)
Saturday, September 18, 2010

from www.catholic.com
Minor or venial sins can be confessed directly to God...


I suppose you want me to change my avatar to the other now, huh! :)


Quoting McBill:
"As to my original statement "Most of the stations that show no warming at all are rural ones", well, I cannot sit in here and post hundreds of data plots from rural stations. I suggest spending a day at the GISS site, caveats about their methods and the GHCN raw data aside."

So, to be clear, you can't provide a reference to back up your claim.

You could have said that to begin with rather than wasting folks time.

What? Oh, yes, I can. But I am not going to do it for you. I have done it here, to some degree, before.

I have already provided a number of items of published research about the disparity between the urban and rural stations.

Wasting folks' time? (What was that you said about "hold the snark"? Getting a bit snide, yourself, sport)
NEW BLOG!!!!!!
1477. McBill
"Wasting folks' time? (What was that you said about "hold the snark"? Getting a bit snide, yourself, sport)"

No snark at all - just stating a fact. You provided a reference that you falsely claimed supported a specific assertion made by you. Had you not made that false claim, I would not have wasted my time pulling and reading that paper.

So, if you can provide a reference, please do so. Otherwise, just give it up. Enough time wasted.

BTW - How does one provide a reference "to some degree?"

Quoting PcolaDan:
NEW BLOG!!!!!!


Thank God...
Quoting TampaSpin:
1431. Floodman 11:26 AM EST on January 27, 2010

ARe you in Taxas now! Looks like some snow heading that direction again.


Looks like it's going to miss us here in Fort Worth; they're calling for flurries, essentially, along with a little sleet when the change from rain to frozen precip happens. No call for appreciable accunulation. Now Oklahoma, on the other hand...going to be bad...