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Polish president dies in plane crash during heavy fog

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:06 PM GMT on April 10, 2010

Always obey your air traffic controllers. That's the cardinal rule of of aviation, and one apparently violated by the pilot of the aircraft carrying the Polish president and dozens of the country's top political and military leaders, which crashed in heavy fog this morning near Smolensk, Russia. All 96 people aboard perished. According to the New York Times, air traffic controllers had recommended the president's jet land in nearby Minsk because of bad visibility, but the crew decided to land anyway. The Polish news channel TVN24 reported that moments before the crash, air traffic controllers had refused a Russian military aircraft permission to land, but that they could not refuse permission to the Polish plane. Russian media reported that the airplane's crew made several attempts to land before a wing hit the treetops and the plane crashed about half a mile from the runway.


Figure 1. a large patch of fog covers the Russian city of Smolensk and regions to the east in this visible light image captured by NASA's Terra satellite between 08:00 - 11:15 UTC Saturday, April 10, 2010. Image credit: NASA MODIS Rapid Response System, visualized using Google Earth.

At 10 am local time, near the time of the crash, the Smolensk airport reported heavy fog with visibility 0.5 km (3/10 of a mile). As seen in the satellite image taken near this time (Figure 1), a large bank of fog covered Smolensk and neighboring regions of Russia and Belarus.

Jeff Masters

Aviation

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Drakoen:


You haven't shed any light to what actually happened and I see no reason to question both sources at this time.
NOBODY has shed any light on what actually happened, that's the point, and I see several reasons to question all that are defending this blog topic without ANY actual expertise on the subject. I'm out, WU mail anything else please, I'll bring up my original question with the author as I should have in the first place. Ya'll will argue (as opposed to debate/discuss) anything for the sake of the arguement. If you have a serious discussion, please WUmail, I'll talk pilot s__t all day. Nite...
Quoting indianrivguy:


that's the only way they are awarded


oh, oops!
Your right Pat the storm surge is the greatest danger in the gulf almost anywhere you look, larger the storm the bigger the danger I was just speaking of wind strength. Yes Sky that seems to be exactly what is happening in S. Fl. when a storm approaches from the SW,IE Wilma. It draws strength from the everglades and the gulf stream to the east.
"According to the New York Times, air traffic controllers had recommended the president's jet land in nearby Minsk because of bad visibility, but the crew decided to land anyway"

Recommended... Just like NittyGritty said.
Quoting NttyGrtty:
NOBODY has shed any light on what actually happened, that's the point, and I see several reasons to question all that are defending this blog topic without ANY actual expertise on the subject. I'm out, WU mail anything else please, I'll bring up my original question with the author as I should have in the first place. Ya'll will argue (as opposed to debate/discuss) anything for the sake of the arguement. If you have a serious discussion, please WUmail, I'll talk pilot s__t all day. Nite...


And now you bring me back to post 443
C'mon Drakoen I think he has a point to what he saying. He is a pilot and the air traffic controller did say it is recommended that one doesn't land but all in all it is up to the pilot or somebody of higher power on board like the President. I don't understand why you are trying to argue with him.
Quoting Drakoen:


A discussion is an argument. Picking a side a defending it is argument and discussion.


Okay, I'll play the semantics game. Technically you are correct so I will rephrase (although there are nuances that generally dictate when each word is used). (Never heard a Mom holler for the kids to stop that discussing.) There seem to be some people that come here for the sole reason of causing a verbal ruckus. I may even be considered one of those by some in here. My point is, why can't these talks remain civil? Maybe my definition of civility is different.
Quoting Patrap:
According to the New York Times, air traffic controllers had recommended the president's jet land in nearby Minsk because of bad visibility, but the crew decided to land anyway. The Polish news channel TVN24 reported that moments before the crash, air traffic controllers had refused a Russian military aircraft permission to land, but that they could not refuse permission to the Polish plane.

from the NY Times as posted below by Drak,

"A top Russian military official said air traffic controllers at the Smolensk airport had several times ordered the crew of the plane not to land, warned that it was descending below the glide path and recommended it reroute to another airport."


Radar had the Aircraft too Low on Approach,and well,dat Radar stuff been round a tad time wise.

Also the Russian ATC Ordered a Russian Military Flight to wave Off but the Polish Crew decided to make that last Fatal run at the Runway.

And Failed to make it.

Always land Long.

The CVR and CDR will Let us know the Pilots reasons and actions as they were both recovered

Piloting 101...never land short.

Thats a BAD way to fly.


Not always a good option Pat. I watched a P-3 land long at Norfolk NAS in the fog and he ran off the end of the duty runway, down the hill, through the fence and into the pond. Ruined his day. I happened to be in ops and saw his landing gear go by the window on his approach and we all knew he was in big trouble. Ops was halfway down the runway.
Brazilian authorities have evacuated thousands of shantytown residents so their houses could be demolished after heavy rains that killed 224 people last week threatened further landslides.

Rio mayor Eduardo Paes said residents of the Morro de Urubu favelas (shantytowns) were being evacuated starting on Saturday ahead of demolitions planned for Monday.

The mayor decreed late last week that residents could be forcibly removed from their neighbourhoods, perched precariously on hillsides.

"There is still a risks of rains in the city. We cannot let people stay in danger zones," he said, noting that some 10,000 people live in the designated "risk areas".

Families will receive a "social pension" of $US141 ($A150.64) each month to pay for temporary housing until new houses are built, the mayor said.

On a visit to the Morro do Bumba slum in Niteroi on Sunday, Rio state Governor Sergio Cabral announced the federal government would provide a loan of some $US2.3 billion ($A2.46 billion) to cover damages.

The slum, where dozens of houses were destroyed by landslides, was built on an old garbage dump, compacted by time. The hillside gave way after the heavy rains, burying alive some hundreds of people, according to official estimates.
Quoting PcolaJess:


oh, oops!

actually the point of the Darwin award is to honor those who are clearing stupidity from the gene pool by removing their genes, so if a person is unable to reproduce because of something stupid they did they can still win a Darwin Award. Just saying
Interesting, 6.8 in the Solomon Islands and 6.3 in Spain and neither appears to have aftershocks. Wonder if this is normal in those areas.
Quoting SQUAWK:


Not always a good option Pat. I watched a P-3 land long at Norfolk NAS in the fog and he ran off the end of the duty runway, down the hill, through the fence and into the pond. Ruined his day. I happened to be in ops and saw his landing gear go by the window on his approach and we all knew he was in big trouble. Ops was halfway down the runway.


Musta been quite da sight.

"Always Land Long" is a old Air Wing adage,..that applies to Runways and Hook catching on Naval Carriers.

Marine Aviator Lingo.

Neil Armstrong Landed Long during Apollo 11..and will tell ya da same.

But he was a Civilian Pilot when flying Apollo 11.
Mike and Buzz were Active Duty Air Force and had to fill out Travel Vouchers.


Spent some time at Oceania, NAS in 82
Quoting presslord:
Q "How far do you think we can fly in the fog?"

A "All the way to the crash site..."


lol?
Quoting PcolaDan:
Interesting, 6.8 in the Solomon Islands and 6.3 in Spain and neither appears to have aftershocks. Wonder if this is normal in those areas.

I am guessing that the quakes in Spain and in the Solomon Islands are on a subduction zone, where one plate dives under the other. Those seem to produce deeper quakes and fewer aftershocks.
515. Drakoen 1:55 AM GMT on April 12, 2010
Quoting presslord:
Q "How far do you think we can fly in the fog?"

A "All the way to the crash site..."


lol?



We are making jokes and laughing about death. Are you all kidding. WOW!

yes....as a matter of fact...we are kidding...
Landing long on a carrier is death pal!

Er, anyone know where I can buy some rain?
Quoting presslord:
yes....as a matter of fact...we are kidding...


Nice joking about death.....NICE!
Quoting pottery:
Er, anyone know where I can buy some rain?


Ebay
Well..if one had a lil Knowledge one would never land short of a carrier in my estimate..LOL

And Landing Middle Cable is preferred,but thats why one hits full Power at Contact,..

But you knew that?
Didnt,ya?

LOL

"Call da Ball"..




There are people who make things happen, there are people who watch things happen, and there are people who wonder what happened. To be successful, you need to be a person who makes things happen.
James A. Lovell
NO MORE PORTLIGHT SPONSORSHIP efforts from me!
Quoting pottery:
Er, anyone know where I can buy some rain?

My friend, I wish we could lend you some rain. I know that you're experiencing a bad drought. Hopefully, the El Nino will die out quickly and weather for Trinidad and Tobago will return to normal.

If it's any consolation, I live in the Dallas-ft Worth, TX area. We has one wet and snowy winter (which was bizarre, it almost never snows in this part of TX) and now it has been almost 3 weeks since we had a meaningful rainfall.
The disturbing thing, I suspect, is not that I'm laughing at death...but that I'm laughing at stupidity...

...might as well own it now..
Saw an incredible Meteorite this evening, south-west to north-east.
Left a trail of scarlet stuff behind and I thought at the time "...I should be able to HEAR that!
Pretty sight.
But you knew that?
Didnt,ya?



Yes I did...that's why you do NOT land long you cookie!

Quoting presslord:
The disturbing thing, I suspect, is not that I'm laughing at death...but that I'm laughing at stupidity...


What a revelation
Some hail over TX/OK..floater 1 is on it.
Quoting TampaSpin:
NO MORE PORTLIGHT SPONSORSHIP efforts from me!


heheheheh, Weirdness on a Sunday night.
Quoting presslord:
The disturbing thing, I suspect, is not that I'm laughing at death...but that I'm laughing at stupidity...

The Polish government was probably under pressure from their own superiors on board the plane to land the plane and not divert to another airport. It appears to just be a tragic accident, their pilots were probably very good pilots, but misjudged the situation.
I think it's probably human nature if you're a pilot to defend the pilot, so it's not surprising to see some of these posts.

Here's the thing, though... You have heavy fog, an airport without instrument landing systems or lights. (Yeah, not even landing lights, just a lit antenna tower nearby.) The controllers are ordering the pilot to stop descending and land elsewhere. There have already been three unsuccessful attempts to land, and the lives of the pilot's most important military and political leaders are at stake.

It's extraordinarily unlikely that any experienced pilot would choose to attempt another landing under these circumstances unless they were told to do so by a superior. Add to that that Kaczynski had a history of pressuring pilots to land, so even if the pilot was not ordered to land, he might have felt pressure to do so.

It's tragic all the way around.
Quoting pottery:
Saw an incredible Meteorite this evening, south-west to north-east.
Left a trail of scarlet stuff behind and I thought at the time "...I should be able to HEAR that!
Pretty sight.


About 30-45 minutes ago we had a bright flash here in Arlington, TX. We all saw it from inside the house, no lightning or thunder here, just Pt Cloudy and mild. Was the meteorite very bright as it traveled across the skies
Quoting Bordonaro:

The Polish government was probably under pressure from their own superiors on board the plane to land the plane and not divert to another airport. It appears to just be a tragic accident, their pilots were probably very good pilots, but misjudged the situation.


Good post. Also, with that level of Passengers on board, there would have been all kinds of issues with Meeting Parties, Security, Transport arrangements etc.
The Crew made a decision, and it went bad.
We do NOT know as yet, what exactly happened to cause the crash. And maybe never will.
Quoting pottery:
Saw an incredible Meteorite this evening, south-west to north-east.
Left a trail of scarlet stuff behind and I thought at the time "...I should be able to HEAR that!
Pretty sight.


About 30-45 minutes ago we had a bright flash here in Arlington, TX. We all saw it from inside the house, no lightning or thunder here, just Pt Cloudy and mild. Was the meteorite very bright as it traveled across the skies
Action: Quote | Ignore User

Pat...maybe you oughta check on the ISS...
Quoting Patrap:
Well..if one had a lil Knowledge one would never land short of a carrier in my estiamte..LOL

And Landing Middle Cable is preferred,but thats why one hits full Power at Contact,..

But you knew that?
Didnt,ya?

LOL


There are people who make things happen, there are people who watch things happen, and there are people who wonder what happened. To be successful, you need to be a person who makes things happen.
James A. Lovell


Ramp strikes are not usually survived, bolters normally get to try it again.
NO MORE PORTLIGHT SPONSORSHIP efforts from me!


Sounds smart to me.

I cannot believe what i have seen posted tonite from someone that is suppose to be a big time humanity person. WOW! Very disappointing to see the thinking and position of someone that is suppose to care so much about human life.
Quoting SQUAWK:


Ramp strikes are not usually survived, bolters normally get to try it again.



"U betcha"..
Quoting Bordonaro:


About 30-45 minutes ago we had a bright flash here in Arlington, TX. We all saw it from inside the house, no lightning or thunder here, just Pt Cloudy and mild. Was the meteorite very bright as it traveled across the skies


Interesting. Not particularly bright. Would not have noticed it if I was not sitting outside on a lounger. This was about 2 hrs ago, so big time diff. too.
Maybe, 'they' are comin' in tonight! From beyond......
...moon phase check, please...
Quoting Randrewx:
NO MORE PORTLIGHT SPONSORSHIP efforts from me!


Sounds smart to me.



you guys are over-reacting here...
Quoting TampaSpin:
515. Drakoen 1:55 AM GMT on April 12, 2010
Quoting presslord:
Q "How far do you think we can fly in the fog?"

A "All the way to the crash site..."


lol?



We are making jokes and laughing about death. Are you all kidding. WOW!

better to laugh then cry
Cargo Transfers Continue From Leonardo to Station
Sun, 11 Apr 2010 09:57:49 PM EDT

The crew of space shuttle Discovery awoke at 9:51 p.m. EDT to “Because We Believe” by Andrea Bocelli for Commander Alan Poindexter.

The space station crew will focus on transferring items from the Leonardo Multi Purpose Logistics Module to the International Space Station, while Discovery’s crew enjoys some off duty time. Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency astronauts Naoko Yamazaki and Soichi Noguchi will talk to Japan’s Prime Minister at 6:41 a.m. and an English interpretation will be played on NASA Television at 8 a.m. The crews also will conduct interviews with reporters from ABC, MSNBC, FOX and KUSA TV in Denver. Late in the day, Rick Mastracchio and Clay Anderson will “camp out” in the Quest Airlock to rid their bodies of nitrogen in preparation for Tuesday’s third spacewalk.
Quoting Randrewx:
NO MORE PORTLIGHT SPONSORSHIP efforts from me!


Sounds smart to me.



UNREAL!!! HOW DARE SOMEONE make laughs and jokes about such a horrible thing that killed 96 lives because of human error.

I would hope that Dr. Masters would end all sponsorship to such thinking and post as well.
judge not least you be judged
Melodramatic much? Presslord was just being Presslord adding some levity to the blog; you can't ask for much more than that.
All this discussion on plane crashes reminds me of the American Airlines flight that landed half way down the runway and crashed December 2009 in Kingston, Jamaica. Thank God no one died. Still haven't heard a word about a "final report" on the incident.

http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/american-airlines-flight-311-overshoots-runway-jamaica-dozens/story?id=94 08329

ARE THE CARRIBBEAN WATERS REALLY COOLING?
Waning Crescent, 6% of the Moon is Illuminated
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
judge not least you be judged
My favorite quote and one not used often enough.
It's cause the only thing out there to watch is a hail storm in TX.. Not a swirl in the world. Ya'll deserve a climate change abstract but I can't even find a recent one of those:)
Quoting HURRICANECAT5:
ARE THE CARRIBBEAN WATERS REALLY COOLING?
If they are IDK because the buoys are showing water temps at 28C
Thanks for the info on the medium term forecast for Texas weather. Have bookmarked the site. Sigh... even drought tolerant plants need lots of water when they come back from the roots (as this year), so there goes my goal for getting water usage down for yet another year (planted about 150 bushes and cut another 100 +/- down to the roots... still waiting for 12 to come back).

Did you know windmills cause droughts (just kidding :) ). One of the more interesting "questions" I got while speaking on energy conservation and AGW was "don't you know it is all the windmills in West Texas that is causing the drought there". Seriously. Took me back for a second (anybody who is interested can google search this) but there are folks who are saying this (like, renewables are causing AGW?). Took me a second to comment on it but then if one is removing energy from the system (the weather system, that is), the second law of thermo still hasn't been repealed :). Windmills will produce cooling, not warming. Perhaps they might produce something akin to the urban heat island effect with local consequences, but removing energy (first law, thus heat) equals cooling.

Variation argument as with CO2 AGW... yah, simulation is garbage (I am a master at it myself but say that to shock folks since simulations are only as good as the physics that go into them), but at the end of the day CO2 is a GHG that will trap energy in the system ergo the temperature will go up.
Since TampaSpin had someone close to him die before their time a few days ago, I'd give him some slack. Just sayin'
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Since TampaSpin had someone close to him die before their time a few days ago, I'd give him some slack. Just sayin'
Agreed.
Quoting kmanislander:
World's deepest undersea vents discovered in the Cayman trough
don't surprize me those trenches are some of the deepest in the world those hot vents will have some strange life down there in the depths

good kman how have ya been this winter
Well well well...
Hello Kman.
The 'season' must be approaching.LOL
Good to see you.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
don't surprize me those trenches are some of the deepest in the world those hot vents will have some strange life down there in the depths

good kman how have ya been this winter


Not too bad thanks and trust you have been well. The summer heat began in earnest about 5 days ago and coupled with the dusty dry conditions it is most unpleasant here until the rains begin. That should happen in the next 4 weeks or thereabouts.

Time to crank up the a/c.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Since TampaSpin had someone close to him die before their time a few days ago, I'd give him some slack. Just sayin'


SSIG i appreciate that, but What happened tonite was eye opening to many just not me. And thank you everyone for all the emails and kind words on my blog. It really is easy to see who your friends are in trying times! Thanks.

I would advice anyone that has not read my blog to do so. It might save yourself or a loved ones life. Unreal what happened.
Quoting pottery:
Well well well...
Hello Kman.
The 'season' must be approaching.LOL
Good to see you.

Hi Pottery, wonderful to see you too. I just posted a reply but my wifi went out for a sec so this may double post.

The threat of an above average season is on the cards so we may be busy here come the peak months.
I posted this link a few days ago but if anyone did not see it and has an interest in following the undersea expedition that just discovered the black smokers in the Cayman Trench you can go here for daily updates.

Cayman Trench Expedition Reports From the Ship
Quoting kmanislander:

Hi Pottery, wonderful to see you too. I just posted a reply but my wifi went out for a sec so this may double post.

The threat of an above average season is on the cards so we may be busy here come the peak months.


I truly hope not. But the signs are not looking good.
Keep well. Looking forward to your clear analysis again this season.
Quoting TampaSpin:


SSIG i appreciate that, but What happened tonite was eye opening to many just not me. And thank you everyone for all the emails and kind words on my blog. It really is easy to see who your friends are in trying times! Thanks.

I would advice anyone that has not read my blog to do so. It might save yourself or a loved ones life. Unreal what happened.



I'm sorry for your personal hurt Tampa.
But I also know how dissilusioned you now are regarding the Portlight operation on here.
Presslord has once again shown his colors and yet Dr. Masters continues to bang the drum in support of these ...whatevers.

Heads up. Randrewx is JFV. Again, another alias.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Heads up. Randrewx is JFV. Again, another alias.
your way off and thats all i have to say about that
Earthquakes have been in the news a lot so far in 2010. What I don't see anywhere is what is actually considered "normal". We know the average # of hurricanes & tornadoes for an area so what is Regional & Worldwide averages for various categories of earthquakes?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
your way off and thats all i have to say about that
I don't think so but I won't argue with you. Sure sounds like it to me but maybe you know something I don't.
your way off and thats all i have to say about that


LMAO...Me too!

Quoting Randrewx:



I'm sorry for your personal hurt Tampa.
But I also know how dissilusioned you now are regarding the Portlight operation on here.
Presslord has once again shown his colors and yet Dr. Masters continues to bang the drum in support of these ...whatevers.



Press is a great man, he's done so much for so little especially after the wake of Hurricane Ike and in Haiti.
i see you are your wunderful self

lol
Actually randrewx is not JFV. He's Randrewl/vortfix. Known about it quite a while.
RandrewL wont be around for long.
Comes and goes, like toothache. Unpleasant while it lasts though...
Quoting pottery:
RandrewL wont be around for long.
Comes and goes, like toothache. Unpleasant while it lasts though...
i think he kinda likes the sharp pick axe in the heart thing myself
lol
Quoting Randrewx:
Press is a great man, he's done so much for so little especially after the wake of Hurricane Ike and in Haiti.


That's nonsense!
He did most all of the Ike relief on my dime!
You don't know what you're dealing with here.




A troll obviously, who doesn't care that people were effected by that disaster. You DO release, that was the 3rd most destructive US hurricane ever? Press made a comment, alright his bad. But he's contributed a lot more than you might think.
no foolin straight to the point even if it hurts kinda person i figure some people don't have a problem with it others well they let it get to themselves thats there first mistake
Bunch of newbies on here I guess.
Right Keeper?

They obviously don't know what we did during Ike.

Ah well, suppose I'm just instigating things more by letting it continue. I'll just do what i've done the past 3 years.. Ignoring.
what ever i did i don't know what yer talking about

lol
585. BDAwx
Quoting GainesvilleGator:
Earthquakes have been in the news a lot so far in 2010. What I don't see anywhere is what is actually considered "normal". We know the average # of hurricanes & tornadoes for an area so what is Regional & Worldwide averages for various categories of earthquakes?

I find this comment interesting because I too see nowhere that shows an average number of earthquakes regional/worldwide, yet I've heard USGS representatives saying that there hasn't been an increase in the frequency of earthquakes.
DO I SEE TROLLS?
Quoting Tazmanian:
DO I SEE TROLLS?


Yep, you do.
Quoting BDAwx:

I find this comment interesting because I too see nowhere that shows an average number of earthquakes regional/worldwide, yet I've heard USGS representatives saying that there hasn't been an increase in the frequency of earthquakes.


I suppose it is possible to compile a Richter graph, to show the yearly average of recorded quakes. In magnitude or something.
Beyond me. But the info is all there.
this like cane2010 wish was JFV
too bad dr m blog dont have Norton 360 we will be puting the trolls right in them
i meant Norton 360 on blog
Hey taz thats pretty funny, yeah that would be something a blog with no trolls priceless!
what the heck . Randrewx doing back here


he was banned a few years a go
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Hey taz thats pretty funny, yeah that would be something a blog with no trolls priceless!



yup
i like too no have some trolls gets a round the block the Admin give them
Reading back it seems Presslord has been watching Ron White!! Funny but kinda in poor taste in lieu of what has happened recently. Other than thats how is everyone...

Evening All!
Thats so sad that people just go on to a weather blog and antagonize people about stupid things do these guys have a life i guess not.
Quoting rareaire:
Reading back it seems Presslord has been watching Ron White!! Funny but kinda in poor taste in lieu of what has happened recently. Other than thats how is everyone...

Evening All!


Poor Taste is probably a good way to put it. Hey Rare! You ready for this upcoming season. Your area could be rough IMO!
Hi tampaspin!
I'm totally in love with Ron White...and will cop to the poor taste charge and ask your forgiveness...
I'm on your side Press
Good to see Ryang has opened his blog after a long absence.
Looking forward to his commentary this season.
Good night all.
Well Im hoping we get right into hurricane season cause that means the nightmare known as Tornado season will be over here in the Great state of Oklahoma... It looks to be a bad spring here. We have already had hail and 9 naders. We had wind gust the other day of 86 mph. And if you have been to Oklahoma or nothern texas you know theres not much to stop it...
Tampa as you know I feel your due!! lol
Quoting presslord:
I'm totally in love with Ron White...and will cop to the poor taste charge and ask your forgiveness...


Forgivness yes......but, as Donald Trump would say.....YOUR FIRED!
ok all im out for the night, Be safe
Quoting TampaSpin:


Forgivness yes......but, as Donald Trump would say.....YOUR FIRED!


you can't fire me...I quit ; )
nite press, stay you!
Quoting rareaire:
Tampa as you know I feel your due!! lol


Bro don't you dare........LOL! Don't you even make a Prediction.......EARS and EYES CLOSED and NOSE TURNS TO GOD!
Hey Storm W was saying just the other day its time Florida has been to lucky, you know its coming!!

Quoting rareaire:
Hey Storm W was saying just the other day its time Florida has been to lucky, you know its coming!!



Hey you know StormW is only right about 90% of the time.....i still have the good 10% left that is a solid 10%....
true, very true. Ok i was on the tractor all day I need some shut eye, Im out!

The blob in the East Pacific died
616. IKE
Quoting all4hurricanes:

The blob in the East Pacific died


Give it a month and things should start up.
Good morning all. Raining to beat the band here - as much as 4 inches per hour
Good morning. StormW,both the daily and 30 day SOI keep rising.

Link
619. IKE
Dry as a bone here in the Florida panhandle.

.09 inches of rain since March 26th.

No rain forecast for the next week.

Highs in the mid 80's later this week. Summers getting closer.
Quoting IKE:
Dry as a bone here in the Florida panhandle.

.09 inches of rain since March 26th.

No rain forecast for the next week.

Highs in the mid 80's later this week. Summers getting closer.

morning Ike,Same here .24 since mar 30th. Have a good day.
It just keeps raining and raining and raining...

GeoffreyWPB,How much rain have you had?
My neighbor's rain gauge is currently at two inches. We have an urban flood advisory until 9:00 a.m.
627. IKE
Quoting severstorm:

morning Ike,Same here .24 since mar 30th. Have a good day.


Too much rain in the winter. Now it's too dry.
Good morning guys
Good morning.
Quoting IKE:
Dry as a bone here in the Florida panhandle.

.09 inches of rain since March 26th.

No rain forecast for the next week.

Highs in the mid 80's later this week. Summers getting closer.


All the models except the GFS shows a heavy rain event for Florida next Monday and Tuesday. This rain event Monday and Tuesday will have a summer feel to it as this will have a nice tropical tap from the Caribbean. So hang in there the 2nd half of April will be wet for Florida. I promise!!
Quoting IKE:


Too much rain in the winter. Now it's too dry.

Yeah i here ya. Its that time of year.
632. IKE
49 days....from today is May 31st. Season will start on a Tuesday...the day after Memorial Day.

I have a feeling 2010 will be a 180 from 2009. Wild season...numerous bannings on the blogs...fights...cutdowns...numerous TS and hurricane threats....could be very serious for people along the coasts.

Hope you all get prepared. I need a new car. My 260,000 99 Pontiac Sunfire is near the end...heater core going out...valve cover gasket...oil pan gasket...

I'm gonna get my last miles worth on it and get me a newer model vehicle. One with an AC in it! I've gone about 6-7 years without one.

I need one before the heart of the season.
Quoting IKE:


Too much rain in the winter. Now it's too dry.


I've had .02 since 3/30/10. OIA has had nothing so far this month. All the rain has been confined to South Florida. Fort Myers got crushed yesterday with strong storms.
I do remember you telling me that about 10 days ago. So i will be waiting. Thanks jeff9641
Quoting severstorm:
I do remember you telling me that about 10 days ago. So i will be waiting. Thanks jeff9641


I'm sorry next Monday & Tuesday. I don't think Central Florida will get much rain at all this week. We are going to have to wait several days.
Man thats nothing jeff hopefully the models will keep the rain chances for next week and the gfs comes on board with the rest you guys need it.
It is next week this week will be dominated by a ridge of high pressure and a pressure gradient that will make for brezzy conditions at least here in tampa.
Quoting Jeff9641:


I'm sorry next Monday & Tuesday. I don't think Central Florida will get much rain at all this week. We are going to have to wait several days.

Nope i dont see much rain in wcfl this week. They were calling for it yesterday and it all went to Fort Myers.
Good Morning...

Well, Summer sure wants to come in and I guess we should expect CFL Northward drier conditions as the WX transitions from a drier to a more moist airmass and sea breezes start to get established.

There's definitely huge amounts of moisture in the Caribbean ready to be tapped and drawn west and north as the Bermuda High takes its rightful place. :)
Good morning wxlogic.
Quoting IKE:
49 days....from today is May 31st. Season will start on a Tuesday...the day after Memorial Day.

I have a feeling 2010 will be a 180 from 2009. Wild season...numerous bannings on the blogs...fights...cutdowns...numerous TS and hurricane threats....could be very serious for people along the coasts.

Hope you all get prepared. I need a new car. My 260,000 99 Pontiac Sunfire is near the end...heater core going out...valve cover gasket...oil pan gasket...

I'm gonna get my last miles worth on it and get me a newer model vehicle. One with an AC in it! I've gone about 6-7 years without one.

I need one before the heart of the season.


Don't forget about the crows... hope there're enough boxes of raw ones ready for cooking. :)
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Man thats nothing jeff hopefully the models will keep the rain chances for next week and the gfs comes on board with the rest you guys need it.


Yeah but it is normal for us to go without rain for long periods in April. Just think in another month we will begin to start getting thunderstorms everyday until 10/15 (the end of the rainy season). Rainy season usually starts on May 26th in Orlando.
Cant wait for the rainy season because my grass still hasn't recovered from this winter! needs the rain.
644. IKE
Quoting WxLogic:


Don't forget about the crows... hope there're enough boxes of raw ones ready for cooking. :)


I've got some in the freezer, just waiting to be thawed out.
I have a feeling you will need a back up supply of crow this year ike.
646. IKE
And the reason I need a newer car, is so I'll have a reliable one in case I have to get out of here from a major-cane or even a cat 2.
Good Morning..........Went fishing in the Gulf on Saturday, 15 miles out of St. Marks, and caught our limit of Gag Grouper (Yum). Water temp out there, in about 40 feet of water, was 69 degrees........
648. IKE
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning..........Went fishing in the Gulf on Saturday, 15 miles out of St. Marks, and caught our limit of Gag Grouper (Yum). Water temp out there, in about 40 feet of water, was 69 degrees........


I think it's gonna take until late May to get up to 80 in the NE GOM.
Morning Ike, Alex, everyone else!
Quoting IKE:


I think it's gonna take until late May to get up to 80 in the NE GOM.


Yup.......Just in time for June 1rst........
647. weathermanwannabe 12:55 PM GMT on April 12, 2010
Good Morning..........Went fishing in the Gulf on Saturday, 15 miles out of St. Marks, and caught our limit of Gag Grouper (Yum). Water temp out there, in about 40 feet of water, was 69 degrees........
Action: Quote | Ignore User


11 degrees below theshold good if it rise 1 degree a week for 12 weeks it will be july before ya get to 80 degree mark
652. IKE
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Morning Ike, Alex, everyone else!


Morning.


Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Yup.......Just in time for June 1rst........


LOL...I was thinking that too.

Someone should start a contest soon on when the first named storm will be?

I'll say in June. There will be no 0-0-0 this year until August. If I'm wrong...that crow in the freezer looks eatable. With A1 sauce:)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
11 degrees below theshold good if it rise 1 degree a week for 12 weeks it will be july before ya get to 80 degree mark


We'll have to see how it goes; if the current frontal pattern dies down, and we get some settled high pressure (think heat wave) over the next two months, we could get there by June me thinks....
As I mentioned last week, I think that sheer levels will be the main ingredient to look for in the early part of the season closer to home but I don't like to pick a date for the first one........ :)
iam thinking GOM will take longer than normal to recover temp wize but once it does things will take off
if lots of cloudiness and showers things will take longer if clear and dry temps response sooner
Morning cyberteddy.
ive been looking at the usgs website and have noticed a lot of shaking in the baja california area. so the question is are these aftershocks from the earthquake that happened a couple of weeks ago or are they several small earthquakes in the same general area?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
if lots of cloudiness and showers things will take longer if clear and dry temps response sooner


The very warm feed from the Caribbean going into the loop current will raise the GOM pretty fast. The warmer waters spread out pretty quick. I'm seeing already 81 degree temp waters feeding into the loop current.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
iam thinking GOM will take longer than normal to recover temp wize but once it does things will take off
How many storm a year you think form in the gulf ? Usually the form in the Caribbean and then enter the Gulf . So storms could still form in the carribean but thy would not be able to intensify as much when they enter the gulf waters .
This current El nino is all but done.
If I always obeyed my air traffic controllers I would not be here today. The Captain is ultimately responsible for the safety of his passengers and aircraft, not the controller.
The function of air traffic controllers is to provide safe orderly separation between aircraft and to provide advisory information. Controllers, like pilots, make mistakes. Professional pilots are very much aware of this. A good pilot will be constantly aware of the situation around him and be alert to refuse instructions or request an alternate clearance.
I have done this many times.
Captain Bill
Unfourtunately so hurricane23 i wish we have more seasons like last year with few storms impacting land and powerful fish storms to look at but this year will probably be different so be safe.
Quoting BarnacleBill:
If I always obeyed my air traffic controllers I would not be here today. The Captain is ultimately responsible for the safety of his passengers and aircraft, not the controller.
The function of air traffic controllers is to provide safe orderly separation between aircraft and to provide advisory information. Controllers, like pilots, make mistakes. Professional pilots are very much aware of this. A good pilot will be constantly aware of the situation around him and be alert to refuse instructions or request an alternate clearance.
I have done this many times.
Captain Bill
As have I...great post!
Quoting hurricane23:
This current El nino is all but done.


Yes,apart from the rising SOI, CPC in todays update has El Nino 3.4 at 0.8C.



Link
now with this predicted very active hurricane season and the absence of the QuickScat how accurate is the ASCAT and the European satelite in making early detection of tropical seedlings
Quoting stoormfury:
now with this predicted very active hurricane season and the absence of the QuickScat how accurate is the ASCAT and the European satelite in making early detection of tropical seedlings


If it was a perfect world and I was NASA administrator.. I'd send up a QuickSCAT the size of a bus by the Space Shuttle, then let the QuickSCAT fly off to Geo-Synch orbit. We could get some great images of forming LLC's out of that!
Quoting stoormfury:
now with this predicted very active hurricane season and the absence of the QuickScat how accurate is the ASCAT and the European satelite in making early detection of tropical seedlings


Predictions will be a bit more challenging now since we won't have 2 SCAT Satellites available for cross referencing, but the ASCAT tends to be a bit better in my opinion although is coverage was not as large as the QuickScat as well as other features.

Won't be surprised to see NHC hesitate more than ever on bumping speed(s) and/or categorizing disturbances until SFC and/or Hunter data verifies it.

That's my take on it.
High Country receives autumn snow dusting

The New South Wales High Country received its first evidence that winter is on its way with a light dusting of snow covering the alpine areas.

While the Far South Coast baked in near 30 degree temperatures yesterday, about 1cm of snow fell in the alpine villages.

But The Weather Bureau's Sean Carson says it was short lived.

"About a centimetre of snow fell above 1500m," he said.

You can certainly feel the chill in the air with those south-westerly winds, which are still fairly strong out to sea and are pretty strong throughout the Monaro and the highlands.

"It is going to be another 24 hours before they gradually ease.

"We are left with an air mass that will give us some beautiful autumn days."
Record rainfall transforms Red Centre

Big summer rains that saturated large parts of central Australia have transformed the usually arid bush landscape in Alice Springs.

The city received more than its average yearly rainfall in just one week earlier this year, and the Red Centre now has a carpet of green.

In the first two months of this year more than 400 millimetres of rain fell in the centre of Alice Springs, and Alice Springs Desert Park curator of botany Scott Pullyblank says it is an exciting time.

"It's just a total transformation, it's like the whole country has put on a different coat," he said.

Lea Laughton, an Indigenous woman from the Alice Springs area, works as a guide at the park, and says the rain has produced an abundance of bush foods and medicine.

"All of the grass is just starting to shoot, like the kangaroo grasses and the native mullet grasses, which were used traditionally to make damper and bread and stuff like that," she said.

"The native apple bush is starting to come up, that's used for colds and stuff ... and a lot of that limestone rock fuchsia is starting to come up. That's used for washing your body if you've got sores on your body and stuff like that."

But Ms Laughton says just as soon as the plants shoot up, they are ravaged by insects and the birds which are now flourishing in the desert.

"You've got to beat all the birds ... not only that [but] all the grasshoppers are out, so they've stripped a few of our ... bush bananas, so that's really unfortunate," she said.

This year's rain came after Alice Springs recorded its driest year on record in 2009, and the downpour was a huge relief for pastoralists.

The executive director of the Northern Territory Cattlemen's Association, Luke Bowen, says some cattle stations in the centre had been in drought for up to eight years, and many had been forced to de-stock their properties.

"It's great to see the country in central Australia now, it's really rebounded and it looks fantastic," he said.

"The spirits of people there have significantly improved. It's amazing to see the difference - the looks on people's faces, the smiles, the general optimism that follows rain."

If the rain continues, Mr Pullyblank from the Desert Park says it will add even more colours to the landscape.

"If this rain keeps going on into autumn and spring we'll end up with carpets of wildflowers," he said.

He says it has been almost 10 years since the last major wildflower event in the area.

"So it just tells you how remarkable those species are that the seed can remain in the soil for that long, just waiting for the right climatic conditions at the right time of year," he said.

© ABC 2010
Jack frost returns

Snow has made an Autumnal appearance, albeit briefly, across parts of Tasmania, Victoria and New South Wales.

The first major cold front of Autumn delivered a chilly blast of cold air over the southeast during Sunday and Monday. The air, with origins in the deep Southern Ocean, sent some bitingly cold air over Tasmania and Victoria.

As the summer sun deserts us to the Northern Hemisphere, it is not that unusual for such an event at this time of year.

Snow has been reported through the Victorian and New South Wales alps, down to around 1500 metres. Generally, little has accumulated and most has subsequently melted, so keep the skis in the garage.

For those that remember last April, we also saw a cold blast bring snow. Around the 25th/26th decent falls were taken as the mercury plunged to a record minus 10(Thredbo), making last night's minus three seem quite tropical, well almost.

The coldest air is now exiting east and a huge high pressure system is moving in. Some of the cold air will hang around though, and with the shortening nights and calm conditions cold mornings will prevail.

With the chill, fog and frost patches will develop, horticulturalists and motorists beware!

© Weatherzone 2010
Quoting BarnacleBill:
If I always obeyed my air traffic controllers I would not be here today. The Captain is ultimately responsible for the safety of his passengers and aircraft, not the controller.
The function of air traffic controllers is to provide safe orderly separation between aircraft and to provide advisory information. Controllers, like pilots, make mistakes. Professional pilots are very much aware of this. A good pilot will be constantly aware of the situation around him and be alert to refuse instructions or request an alternate clearance.
I have done this many times.
Captain Bill


President was always known to push pilots to just go ahead and do it. Heard that on Good Morning America. Was pushy about arriving on time to events and orders to follow his commands.
Well guys my recruiter just called and he says theres a job for me so ill be off here for a couple of hours see you this afternoon and i hope i go to boot camp after the hurricane season!
Quoting WxLogic:


Don't forget about the crows... hope there're enough boxes of raw ones ready for cooking. :)
I,ll be ready. I will have mine fried and crispy when the time comes. :)
Quoting hydrus:
I,ll be ready. I will have mine fried and crispy when the time comes. :)

I like mine baked with tomato ketchup and a side serve of fries.
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Well guys my recruiter just called and he says theres a job for me so ill be off here for a couple of hours see you this afternoon and i hope i go to boot camp after the hurricane season!


Don't wait until after hurricane season. Boot right away! There's nothing like it! You'll LOVE it!