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Pick your poison

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:41 PM GMT on May 03, 2007

A huge, destructive hurricane takes aim at a major U.S. city. The media creates a riveting drama, followed by millions of people, who watch in awe as the massive storm smashes ashore. Grimly, wind-blown reporters and concerned news anchors document the mounting death toll and billions in damage wrought, bemoaning nature's deadliest and most destructive weather phenomena--the hurricane.

We've got it all wrong. The hurricane is not nature's deadliest and most destructive weather phenomena. Yes, hurricanes have taken a terrible toll in the U.S. over the past 20 years. They've killed an average of 150 people and caused $15 billion in damage per year--mostly thanks to Katrina. But the nation's deadliest weather events are not destructive storms that shred cities. Nature's most innocent weather--high pressure systems that bring sunny skies and light winds--are our deadliest weather events, thanks to the witch's brew of pollution we pour into our atmosphere.



Figure 1. Pick your poison--a Category 5 hurricane, or a sunny high pressure system with light winds? If you're an asthmatic, or have heart or lung disease, you'd probably be better off picking the Cat 5 hurricane. Photo of Los Angeles smog courtesy of wunderphotographer boytonbeachboy.

How high pressure systems trap pollution
High pressure systems are regions where the air gradually sinks, warming as it approaches the surface. This warming, sinking air creates a layer of air aloft (typically near 3000 feet in altitude) that is warmer than the air beneath it. This "upper air inversion" acts as a lid on the atmosphere, keeping pollutants trapped near the surface. Updrafts carrying surface air into the inversion suddenly encounter air that is warmer and less dense, so the updraft dies and the pollutants that they were trying to carry aloft settle back down towards the surface. If the high pressure region is large, an extensive area of light winds at the surface will exist, keeping the pollutants trapped under the inversion from being blown away horizontally. If the high pressure system stays in place for several days, pollutants will accumulate day by day, reaching levels harmful to human health and triggering a sharp rise in the death rate. "Particulate matter," also known as particle pollution or PM, is the pollutant that causes the largest rise in the death rate. Particulate matter pollution can occur any time of year, when winds are light and an inversion exists. In summertime, a double-whammy dose of ozone pollution can also hit, if temperatures are warm enough to drive the chemical reactions that form ozone.

How many people does pollution kill?
Why is it that air pollution episodes that kill thousands of Americans don't receive the media attention that hurricanes get? It's because it is not obvious when someone dies from air pollution, and there is very large uncertainty in the numbers. The only way to see air pollution deaths is to analyze death rate statistics for multiple years, carefully filtering out other influences such as weather extremes. Over two thousand studies have been published in the scientific literature documenting the link between air pollution and higher death and hospitalization rates. Most of these studies concern fine particulate matter (less than 2.5 microns in diameter), which can get deep into a person's lungs and be passed into the blood stream. Recent studies have also documented higher death rates from ozone pollution. For example, in a 2004 study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association, Dr. Michelle Bell, an air quality and health expert at Yale University, found that an ozone increase of 10 parts per billion increased the death rate by an average of .52% in 95 U.S. cities (containing 40% of the U.S. population) during the period 1987-2000. Bell's research implies that a change in the ozone standard from the current 80 ppb (parts per billion) to the newly proposed standard of 60 ppb could prevent nearly 8,000 premature deaths per year in those 95 cities. About half of the people who died prematurely in Bell's study were over age 75, but the death rate increased the same amount for both young and old. In some cases, the people who died were victims of strokes or heart attacks that had other contributing causes, such as high blood pressure or sedentary lifestyles. Thus, the "premature deaths" caused by air pollution are only partly attributable to breathing bad air, while drowning in a hurricane's storm surge is entirely due to the hurricane. Nevertheless, a great many children die of pollution-induced asthma attacks who would not have died otherwise, and the mortality due to air pollution in the general population is in the thousands or ten of thousands each year. Outdoor air pollution in the U.S. due to particulate pollution alone was estimated by the EPA in 1997 to cause at least 20,000 premature deaths each year. A 2005 study by EPA scientists (Particulate Matter Health Risk Assessment for Selected Urban Areas) estimated that over 4,700 premature deaths occur each year in just nine cities (Detroit, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Boston, Phoenix, Seattle, and San Jose)--even if those cities all met the current federal standards for particulate matter pollution. Extrapolating these data to the entire nation puts the annual death toll in the tens of thousands--but the EPA has not calculated that total. Some studies have placed the annual pollution death toll in the U.S. at 50,000 to 100,000 (Dockery, D.W., and C.A Pope III. Acute Respiratory Effects of Particulate Air Pollution. Annual Review Public Health, 1994, vol. 15,107-32.) The death toll is much higher in other parts of the world, where air pollution standards are not as stringent (see the photos below of pollution in Cairo and Hong Hong!) Globally, about 800,000 people per year die prematurely due to outdoor air pollution, according to a 2005 study published in the Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health. This represents about 1.2 percent of total annual global deaths.



Figure 2. Trends in fine particulate air pollution in the U.S. Since 1999, fine particles (less than 2.5 micrometers in diameter) have decreased 15%. Image credit: U.S. EPA.

Progress is being made
Significant progress has been made in recent years in cleaning the nation's air. Between 1970 and 2004, total emissions of the six major air pollutants regulated by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) dropped by 54 percent. This is particularly impressive when noting that the gross domestic product increased 187 percent, energy consumption increased 47 percent, and U.S. population grew by 40 percent during the same time. Fine particulate matter pollution, which causes the most deaths due to pollution, has dropped 15% since 1999 (Figure 2), although it did increase in some Eastern U.S. cities in 2006. In March 2005, the EPA instituted the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR). This new rule will cost $3 billion per year to implement, but the EPA estimates annual savings of nearly $100 billion in health costs, plus the prevention of over 17,000 premature deaths, by the year 2015.

How you can avoid a premature death due to air pollution
- Pay attention to forecasts for high air pollution days to know when to take precautions
- Avoid exercising near high-traffic areas
- Avoid exercising outdoors when pollution levels are high, or substitute an activity that requires less exertion
- Eliminate indoor smoking
- Reduce the use of fireplaces and wood burning stoves

How you can help others avoid a premature death due to air pollution
- Support national, state and local efforts to clean up sources of pollution. When one hears talk about the high cost of cutting fossil fuels use to reduce global warming, keep in mind that any lessening of fossil fuel use will also reduce air pollution and all of its costs.
- Conserve electricity and set your air conditioner at a higher temperature.
- Choose a cleaner commute--share a ride to work or use public transportation. Combine errands and reduce trips.
- Bicycle or walk to errands when possible.
- Refuel cars and trucks after dusk.
- Limit engine idling.
- Get regular engine tune ups and car maintenance checks (especially for the spark plugs).
- Avoid spilling gas and don't "top off" the tank. Replace gas tank cap tightly.
- Properly dispose of household paints, solvents and pesticides. Store these materials in airtight containers.
- Paint with a brush, not a sprayer.
- Buy low VOC paints for indoor and outdoor painting jobs.
- Reduce or eliminate fireplace and wood stove use.
- Avoid using gas-powered lawn and garden equipment.
- Avoid burning leaves, trash and other materials.
- Use household, workshop, and garden chemicals in ways that keep evaporation to a minimum, or try to delay using them when poor air quality is forecast.
- Replace your car's air filter and oil regularly

For more information
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has designated this week as Air Pollution Awareness Week. Check out their Air Pollution Awareness Week web site to learn more.

My next blog will be Monday.
Jeff Masters
Hong Kong in mist
Hong Kong in mist
Hong Kong skyline through mist and pollution, as seen from "The Peak" park. South-East China.
Egyptian Smog
Egyptian Smog
This is a picture of the Pyramids at Giza taken from Cairo Tower at sunset. It highlights the pollution problem in Cairo.

Air and Water Pollution

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thanx doc for the reality check.......yes..we love the extreme..but it's the everyday mundane that we need to be concerned about too
Great Post Dr. Masters....
An extreme example of deaths by air pollution was the famous die-off of an estimated 4000 people in London over a two WEEK period in 1952. London burned coal for everything at the time and when a high pressure system parked over the area (with dense fog) it led to a quick buildup of smoke pollution. It was reported that movie theaters closed because the pollution INSIDE was so bad patrons couldnt see the screen! This led to their version of the Clean Air Act.
whoa! Nefertiti photo of Cairo, Egypt smog.
Thanks Dr. M.
Link

Severe weather in South Florida.
Mike Farrell from M*A*S*H..his article and org. Link


"Cancer Alley "

June 2001

Saturday, June 9th

After a not-very-impressive breakfast at 7:30 we head out to the bus. Rick Hind, an old friend who has been with Greenpeace for years, is a happy sight. Not happy is the article he shows us from a local paper about a huge fire a couple of weeks back at a refinery in one of the communities we'll visit. Evidently the result of a lightning strike, a vat of toxic waste burned out of control for days, sending fumes, toxic particles and God knows what-all into the surrounding community. Residents were told to stay closed in their houses day and night and to definitely NOT use their air conditioning. This in June in Louisiana !

There's a huge crowd going on this tour. Two buses and 70-plus people in all, I'm told. The delegates, apparently those who give it some news value, are introduced before getting aboard. Photos and intros are short because it's raining. Toxics experts, a couple of doctors, some scientists, a great number of people from Greenpeace and others from a couple of local environmental groups climb aboard with us. Alice Walker and her friend, a smiling, very pleasant Asian man, come on last, and though they sit in the seats directly in front us, there isn't a chance for an introduction before we're off. She seems just as she appeared in the documentary Shel and I saw quiet, unassuming, diffident.

A local activist is our tour guide and gives a running commentary about the history of the city and the problems attendant to the fact that much of it is at or below sea level. Cemeteries are full of crypts because bodies can't be buried below the ground. A series of channels and a hugely complicated pumping system keep the entire place from reverting to the swamp that is evidently its natural state.

Driving back north on good old I-10 he shows areas that are flood basins used when the Mississippi gets high and tells how water is diverted into Lake Ponchartrain. Soon we're off and west of the I-10, seeing the countryside west of the Cypress groves Mike and I discussed when nearing the city last night. Our guide and Damu point out the beginning of the string of refineries that run from here to Baton Rouge (the first is Shell Oil) and are wreaking such havoc on the mostly black, poor communities on which they've imposed themselves.

We're told that there will be a delay in getting to our first stop because the State Police have closed the best road to it. Flooding. There is some grumbling that suggests the police may be simply making our visit difficult, but that seems a bit of a stretch to me.

A long detour takes us past fields of sugar cane and then we pull to a stop at Elle Plantation, a very small community made up of a row of run-down houses on one lane surrounded by cane fields. Behind one of the fields, too close for comfort, sits a huge processing plant.

The people of the community, black and white, clearly poor, have gathered in their lane and welcome us as we pile off the bus. Some press is here to meet us, some have come on the bus with us and some trail behind in cars. And here, as we're climbing down to meet with this group, we're joined by a car bearing Congresswoman Maxine Waters, her husband and some staff.

As we gather in a rough semi-circle in the road, Damu points out each of the notables' in our group, then members of the community are introduced and take turns speaking to us on a bull-horn provided by Greenpeace. One woman, who seems to be the appointed spokesperson for the community, produces a list of family and neighbors who have died of cancer, liver and kidney disease and other less-clear causes. Among other insults, she talks of being victimized by mustard gas, which is later explained to me as a chemical reaction resulting from a process used by the company to clean old equipment. The gas had seeped out into and across their community. The residents claim the company has responsibility for the medical problems that have resulted from this and other such incidents; the company will not help.

These complaints, from people who are clearly forgotten, ill-educated and miserable, touch the heart, primarily because they show such obvious appreciation for our coming and attach such a sense of hope to our presence. We have made them, for a brief moment, visible, and while I'm happy to let them know that someone cares, I'm fearful that they are being set up, once again, only to be terribly disappointed.

The last to speak over the bull-horn are three small children who simply repeat the litany, Please help us! Rehearsed or not, it's tough to see them in this situation and impossible not be moved.

The people in Elle Plantation (the existence of which predates the company's refinery) want the company to move them as, we learn, the same company has done with another nearby community that had experienced the same types of problems. In fact, just up the road we're later shown the site from which the other community was moved. We're then astonished to find that said community had been relocated a scant couple of miles farther down the same road, clearly remaining within range of any serious toxic poisoning.

Boarding the bus to head for our next meeting, Mike and I introduce ourselves to Alice Walker and I get to tell her how much Shelley and I enjoyed the television interview. She notes that one of the stories from Elle Plantation had very much moved her. In a simple observation about the effects of the chemical pollutants on the community, she recalled, someone said that the pecan trees, though still looking healthy, now gave nuts that were crumbling and mealy. The eyes and ears of a poet, I thought, get connections that others may miss.

Our next stop, in Myrtle Grove, is frustrating. We're late because of the road having been flooded earlier, there's a snafu with communication and the bus has trouble getting into the area. Once there, the people are warm, thrilled to see us and enormously appreciative of our presence, late or not. The meeting is in the Myrtle Grove Community Church , with a mostly black congregation, and it is hot and loud and wonderful. It is essentially a revival meeting, complete with great gospel singing, powerful preaching and testimony from a community spokesperson. Alice Walker is asked to speak and tells of her youth and her love of the clean and healthy forests near her home, then talks of the mealy, crumbling pecans in the shells of healthy-appearing trees at Elle Plantation and gracefully makes the connection to the suffering of the people in these communities. It's a robust event, full of high spirits and determination and it's frustrating to have to leave before the meeting is over because of our need to play catch-up.

Because we leave before hearing everyone, a woman from Myrtle Grove rides with us to supply the details of chemical odors, bad water, illnesses permeating the community and uncaring officials from the offending company (this another of the string that runs through the Alley) who deny responsibility, claim any pollutants that may exist are contained on site and accuse locals of trying to extort money by exaggerating the problems.

Next stop is on the campus of Southern University in Baton Rouge , a black college in a beautiful setting on the banks of the Mississippi River . Here we're treated to a nice lunch with the college administrators and staff and then a press conference where we're each asked to describe the purpose of the tour and our reactions so far. Each of us speak from a slightly different perspective, which is good, then a young woman, a graduate of the university, tells of the lingering effects of damage that was done her when a barge capsized on the river just offshore and a cloud of benzene encompassed the campus. A lovely young woman, her tale of years of debilitating illness, nausea, and possible neural damage is staggering. She's followed by a teacher who describes her own confusion as to what to do during the event. Her students were suffering, yet they were all told to remain on campus, no cause for alarm. Nor has there been any acceptance of responsibility for the accident.

Here is the venality of the corporate mind-set writ large. Big business and big profits so blind those in positions of power that human beings and the environment suffer without the simplest expression of regret from anyone. One understands, of course, that to express regret might imply responsibility and open one's company to a lawsuit. Better, then, to go about one's business and let the suffering people and the damage done be rendered invisible.

Leaving Baton Rouge it's I-10E back to New Sarpy, another community in the Alley, this bordering a Shell Oil refinery. We disembark in a lane next to a chain link fence, just on our left, through which is the refinery. To our right is a crumbling playground, beyond it the four streets of the small town. In the park a group of the residents, adults and kids, black and white, greet us with enthusiastic waves and applause. Signs abound, asking Shell to move them. We're told that the park, distressed as it is, was donated by the company as a good-will gesture. Upkeep, evidently, wasn't part of the gift.

Though we hear from a few people, each community has a designated spokesperson who gives us the dope. Whether coincidentally or not, every one so far has been a woman. In this case, a well-spoken woman tells us of the horrors emanating from across the fence. Because the wind is blowing away from us today, she says, we aren't being exposed to the terrible odor they live with on a regular basis. (I think again of The Smell of Money) Because of the insufferable conditions imposed by the fall-out from operation of the plant, disease, despair and intolerable conditions have poisoned their town. Unbelievably, the company has admitted, she says, that some harm is being done, so they have agreed to relocate the residents of two streets of this four-street town. The lunacy of this proposition is so apparent that there's nothing to do but laugh.

Maxine Waters responds for our group and she's quite terrific. Condemning the dire situation of these people's lives and the imbecilic response of the company, she promises, to great applause, that she will personally call the CEO of Shell Oil on Monday when she returns to Washington and confront him about what's going on.

Maxine has to catch a plane, so we wish her well and mount up once again, heading south to Norco , the community that suffered so as a result of the fire in the chemical vat. Being told to stay indoors with windows sealed shut in 90 to 100 degree temperatures amounted, one wag noted, to a choice between dying and frying.

In Norco , a more upscale black community, we are greeted by an extraordinary, happy group of people who have been anxiously awaiting our arrival. Cheering and singing welcome us as we're swept off the bus and into a small white clapboard church by their leader, a charming and exuberant woman. Knowing that we're short of time, they have arranged parcels of food (even vegetarian packs) and drink for us to take on the bus when we leave. The little church is jammed with people whose delight in our presence is almost overwhelming. After a short welcoming speech by the minister and a quick round of expressions of gratitude for our support, the event seems to expand out the door and back onto the street where we're herded again onto the bus. We're embarrassed to be leaving so soon, particularly when they had gone to so much trouble, but they don't appear to be in the least upset by it. Before we pull out, however, another woman, this one quite elderly, steps in to thank us for coming. She says the fire and their virtual imprisonment was hellish and asks for our support of their request to have either the plant shut down or the entire community moved to a site away from danger.

Still trying to keep up with the ambitious schedule Damu Smith had set for us, we head back to New Orleans for a Town Meeting. Prior to the meeting, however, there is one more visit as we drive through a neighborhood in the middle of the city that has been built atop a toxic dump. Yet another black woman, a leader from yet another black community, boards the bus and shows us through what is clearly a nice, middle-class neighborhood and an adjoining, less-nice, government housing project, all of which is known as Agriculture Street . She explains that the EPA named this a Super-Fund Site and offered to come in, dig out and clean up the tainted earth beneath any home if the owner would agree to signing a release afterward. Pointing out house after house that was cleaned in this way (its residents living in filth and chaos for months), she explains the downside: the EPA would only dig out a maximum of two feet below each home while the dump itself had been fourteen feet deep. For that reason she and many of her neighbors decided not to go along with the EPA and were suing the city. An additional irony lies in the dirt that was removed from those houses whose owners agreed; it was simply taken to a vacant area literally across the street from the impacted neighborhood and piled there. Driving by the fenced-off leavings we see a virtual mountain of toxic garbage left within a few feet of the homes from which it had been removed. A horrifying legacy of the idiotic treatment of these people is her claim that the breast cancer rate among women in this community is 67%.

Our Town Meeting is already in session on another college campus, this one the New Orleans branch of Southern University, but gets going in earnest when we arrive. Two doctors, one local, speak to the danger of high levels of toxicity in the air and water. A lawyer who runs a legal clinic tells of getting fledgling lawyers and law students to provide legal assistance to those victimized by this situation. Women representing two different local environmental organizations speak of the difficulties they face: diseases that appear to be associated with toxic exposure but can't be proven to be so, a poorly-educated and ill-informed populace in many of the affected areas, corporate and governmental resistance and foot-dragging. We are asked to give a personal reflection on this experience and each does so thoughtfully. Alice speaks of heart and hope, light and love. Haki Mahdbuti talks of organizing and continuing the struggle. I offer the analogy of the caged canary coal miners used to take into the mines with them: when odorless gases penetrated, or the oxygen level got too low, the canary would drop dead, warning them to evacuate. I suggested that poor communities here and in other parts of the country could be compared to those canaries. While the injustice being done them is unacceptable on its face, the argument that may more quickly impact the larger community is that the fate of these canaries spells doom for everyone unless something is done.

Damu did a pitch for Greenpeace and we all were hustled out of there. Some left for the hotel after a long day and Mike and I went to a dinner that had been arranged for those who cared to take part. Mostly attended by Greenpeace staffers, it's a nice, calm time to consider and discuss some of what we've seen. It is gratifying to spend time with these smart young people willing to stand up against the corporate giants, to dedicate their time, talent and energy in some cases their lives to the fight against the damage done by mindless greed. Their concern for the welfare of the poor, the pain of the victimized and the insult to the land we've learned about today is both inspiring and humbling.

We, of course, get to return to our clean and comfortable homes in clean and comfortable communities. But we can't forget.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
452 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

FLC051-032145-
/O.CON.KMFL.SV.W.0021.000000T0000Z-070503T2145Z/
HENDRY FL-
452 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT
FOR EASTERN HENDRY COUNTY...

AT 448 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LIKELY PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS TO 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MONTURA AND WILL AFFECT MOTORISTS ALONG
STATE ROAD 846. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI. OR YOU CAN
ALSO CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI DIRECTLY AT
305.229.4528 TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER.

LAT...LON 2674 8121 2627 8120 2627 8088 2672 8089

$$

GREGORIA




THE GREAT SMOG OF 1952 that hit London England


The smoke-laden fog that shrouded the capital from Friday 5 December to Tuesday 9 December 1952 brought premature death to thousands and inconvenience to millions. An estimated 4,000 people died because of it, and cattle at Smithfield, were, the press reported, asphyxiated. Road, rail and air transport were almost brought to a standstill and a performance at the Sadler's Wells Theatre had to be suspended when fog in the auditorium made conditions intolerable for the audience and performers.

The death toll of about 4,000 was not disputed by the medical and other authorities, but exactly how many people perished as a direct result of the fog will never be known. Many who died already suffered from chronic respiratory or cardiovascular complaints. Without the fog, they might not have died when they did. The total number of deaths in Greater London in the week ending 6 December 1952 was 2,062, which was close to normal for the time of year. The following week, the number was 4,703. The death rate peaked at 900 per day on the 8th and 9th and remained above average until just before Christmas. Mortality from bronchitis and pneumonia increased more than sevenfold as a result of the fog.

The fog of December 1952 was by no means the first to bring death and inconvenience to the capital. On 27 December 1813 fog was so dense that the Prince Regent, having set out for Hatfield House, was forced to turn back at Kentish Town. The fog persisted for almost a week and on one day was so thick that the mail coach from London to Birmingham took seven hours to reach Uxbridge. Contemporary accounts tell of the fog being so thick that the other side of the street could not be seen. They also tell of the fog bearing a distinct smell of coal tar. After a similar fog during the week of 713 December 1873, the death rate in the Administrative County of London increased to 40 per cent above normal. Marked increases in death rate occurred, too, after the notable fogs of January 1880, February 1882, December 1891, December 1892 and November 1948. The worst affected area of London was usually the East End, where the density of factories and domestic dwellings was greater than almost anywhere else in the capital. The area was also low-lying, which inhibited fog dispersal.

In early December 1952, the weather was cold, as it had been for some weeks. The weather of November 1952 had been considerably colder than average, with heavy falls of snow in southern England towards the end of the month. To keep warm, the people of London were burning large quantities of coal in their grates. Smoke was pouring from the chimneys of their houses and becoming trapped beneath the inversion of an anticyclone that had developed over southern parts of the British Isles during the first week of December. Trapped, too, beneath this inversion were particles and gases emitted from factory chimneys in the London area, along with pollution which the winds from the east had brought from industrial areas on the continent.

Early on 5 December in the London area, the sky was clear, winds were light and the air near the ground was moist. Accordingly, conditions were ideal for the formation of radiation fog. The sky was clear, so a net loss of long-wave radiation occurred and the ground cooled. The moist air in contact with the ground cooled to its dew-point temperature and condensation occurred. Cool air drained katabatically into the Thames Valley. Beneath the inversion of the anticyclone, the very light wind stirred the saturated air upwards to form a layer of fog 100200 metres deep. Along with the water droplets of the fog, the atmosphere beneath the inversion contained the smoke from innumerable chimneys in the London area and farther afield. Elevated spots such as Hampstead Heath were above the fog and grime. From there, the hills of Surrey and Kent could be seen.

During the day on 5 December, the fog was not especially dense and generally possessed a dry, smoky character. When nightfall came, however, the fog thickened. Visibility dropped to a few metres. The following day, the sun was too low in the sky to make much of an impression on the fog. That night and on the Sunday and Monday nights, the fog again thickened. In many parts of London, it was impossible at night for pedestrians to find their way, even in familiar districts. In the Isle of Dogs, the visibility was at times nil. The fog there was so thick that people could not see their own feet! Even in the drier thoroughfares of central London, the fog was exceptionally thick. Not until 9 December did it clear. In central London, the visibility remained below 500 metres continuously for 114 hours and below 50 metres continuously for 48 hours. At Heathrow Airport, visibility remained below ten metres for almost 48 hours from the morning of 6 December.

Huge quantities of impurities were released into the atmosphere during the period in question. On each day during the foggy period, the following amounts of pollutants were emitted: 1,000 tonnes of smoke particles, 2,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide, 140 tonnes of hydrochloric acid and 14 tonnes of fluorine compounds. In addition, and perhaps most dangerously, 370 tonnes of sulphur dioxide were converted into 800 tonnes of sulphuric acid. At London's County Hall, the concentration of smoke in the air increased from 0.49 milligrams per cubic metre on 4 December to 4.46 on the 7th and 8th.

Legislation followed the Great Smog of 1952 in the form of the City of London (Various Powers) Act of 1954 and the Clean Air Acts of 1956 and 1968. These Acts banned emissions of black smoke and decreed that residents of urban areas and operators of factories must convert to smokeless fuels. As these residents and operators were necessarily given time to convert, however, fogs continued to be smoky for some time after the Act of 1956 was passed. In 1962, for example, 750 Londoners died as a result of a fog, but nothing on the scale of the 1952 Great Smog has ever occurred again.
Amen, Jeff
thanks Dr.M ....hey what do u guys think of the surface trough i think it is ... north of dr/haiti....... i read the T. weather discussion and it said it might turn into a low....what do u guys think
You may doubt that there are anthropogenic causes for global warming; but few can deny the usual suspects for GW are many of the same ones causing pollution.
H-roman - I would add the 'blob' in the SW Carribean as interesting.
TSR may 3 updated forcast----16-9-4.

ggg
lol

heres the blob DocBen is talking about
heres the wave off of Africa:

lol
shear is too high in the SW Caribbean right now, give it a few weeks
thats what i was thinkin
i think its fairly unlikely we'll see a storm in May, if we do it will be late May. Definitely going to be a rough season though.
theres a 2 day period on the 15th and 16th where the GFS predicts favorable shear but then it goes back to unfavorable on the 17th
is there another active blog because nobodys on
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=HGX&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=N0R&zoommode=pan&map .x=400&map.y=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&delay=15&scale=1&noclutter=1&showstorm s=31&showlabels=1&rainsnow=1&lightning=1
Yep - looks like shear is tearing them both apart already.

And that African wave seems too close to the equator to get any 'twist'
yeah it is, if it manages to get itself into the Caribbean it would definitely bear some watching
Chessrascal, the active blogs I have checked so far are going on about everything but the weather...that should change in the next couple of weeks
30. Inyo
high pressure areas are bad news - they also can cause fires via santa anas and a blocking high has caused a drought in southern California.

But what about a catergory 1 hurricane hitting Los Angeles on a smoggy summer day?
PM 2.5 pollution haze layer covers the central valley of California as viewed from the Sequoia/Kings Canyon National Park Service pollution webcam on December 6, 2006, early evening during a multiple day PM 2.5 air pollution episode.

PM 2.5 pollution viewed from Seqyoia-Kings Canyon
Great post Dr. Masters--very informative!
Here is the view from Salt Lake Valley from Friday, January 26, 2007 at 2:30m looking down Little Cottonwood Canyon across the valley [about 13 miles south of downtown SLC) towards the peaks of the Oquirrh Mountains 25 miles away on the other side of the valley. Yuck!!

This was taken during PM 2.5 Code Red air pollution alert conditions that went on over ten days, causing extensive respiratory disease problems. Similar conditions existed along the entire Wasatch front range nearly 100 miles from Provo to Logan, including the Salt Lake City area.

Photo credit to Rush Spedden, Sandy, UT, provided courtesy of George Allen, NESCAUM

Severe PM 2.5 Air Contamination in Utah
Is the weatherman in your town like this? :) Link
What I want to know is whether that is a *real* tv weather announcer or a spoof?
Oh, and very hazy today at mid and upper levels in the air, the sunset was lurid from the Okeefenokee fires. But the seabreeze kept the lower atmosphere clear and fresh.
Hey...you guys...read the wind shear maps. As long as these 50-100 knot wind shear patterns are prsent over the tropics and the African belt, nothing...repeat nothing...will materialize in the way of tropical activity.
It's a shame too, since the Florida peninsula and the southeast are baking from lack of moisture.
Good evening...

Tuned up my satelitte page a bit on my website make sure you check it out thanks.

My Satelitte page
Thanks Kris...
THE SKY IS FALLING , THE SKY IS FALLING!!!!!!!!
45. V26R
Looks Good Adrian
Great Job!!!
Mike
Good page hurricane23
Hi all... I noticed TSR went down a tad on their numbers.. does that mean we may not have as much activity this year??
Their numbers are essentially the same,just a little bit lower.They're given range is still from 12 to 20 storms.It's too early to say what will happen.
Hi kris... you got mail
ALERT: BLUE SKIES WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MY AREA ON FRIDAY . WHAT SHOULD I DO???
sent you those links,hank.
hank,could you send those links back to me?my bookmarks just got messed up.
Kris they didnt go thru for me bro.. it only shoed type message not the blue link shortcut
weird.could you give me those URLs?
i resent them back to you
may have to give me links in here man
Ok,I'll try it.
thanks
cool,it worked.
There is a couple other models on that GFS page...none are really good for TCs.
thanks man.... are there a GFS link to put those 384 hr forecast in motion?
Yeah.select the run you want,and press 'fine',then press 'loop'on the parameter you want.
G'nite all,

That trough over the SE Bahamas did cause some bad weather there last night. An elderly aunt of mine had her door blown in about 4 a.m. this morning. It was looking pretty healthy when I looked at the weather maps this afternoon, but so far it seems to be moving off to the NE, and therefore we are not likely to get much more out of it :( . We could use a bit of rain here also.
gotta run bro. tc, n thanks if you find anymore good links mail them.
ok,hope they helped.
ST SIMMONS THAT IS MY WEATHER GUY HE IS OUT OF Sarasota Florida news 6 what a flamer
I wonder if we are going to get some severe weather tonight in New Orleans? It looks like there is a chance according to what I'm seeing.
Anyone notice that the LaNina is a bit weaker than it was????
70. Inyo
hey, is that a 'derecho' (or was it derecha?) moving towards New Orleans? I am still new to that particular weather phenomenon but it looks similar to the one that went through Texas.

Caffinehog, I wouldn't get too excited about La Nina. The forecast is for it to strengthen, still, but I just don't see it happening, myself. In any event, El Nino is not likely to return any time soon, so the atlantic hurricane season could still be pretty nasty.
It might be a derecho developing Inyo...not sure what it will produce yet though
Morning y'all.

Most of the models are continuing to develop a fairly significant surface low off of the E coast in the three to five day time frame. The timing and positioning of this will be interesting to watch. Some of the models are putting it off of the OBX while others have it hanging around S Fla.

You can find some of the best forecast model pages from the StormJunkie.com Quick Links page. You can also find imagery and much more from there.

Off to work. See y'all later.
Hey everybody, Has anyone taken a look at the most RECENT GFS 06Z AND THE LATEST NOGAPS MODEL?
The NOGAPS parks the LOW RIGHT OVER S FLORIDA!
Morning 882, good to see ya, but no need to scream. That is still 4 to 5 days away and the models are all over the place as to where it will end up. The Nogaps solution would provide some much needed rain for Fla though.
I've got one word for y'all "SHEAR". I don't think we need to worry just yet, but...who knows. This could be just what the Dr. ordered for south FL. I just hope it dosn't all come down at once. A week of slow and steady rain would be good.
Morning cajun. You are right even if the shear lowers the SSTs are still a little cool. That said it will be intersting to see if this actually develops in to a surface low. Very little doubt in my mind that nothing much will come of it even if it does develop. It will also be interesting to see which one of the models had the best grip on it as they all have fairly different solutions.
Morning SJ, Yea, the models seem to be stuck b/w the seasons. I would like to see one get a hold on things and stay constant. Exciting to see things heating up.
NHC model overview, If one is going to drive with the MODELS.One need the Keys...Link
ATLANTIC...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA
INTO THE W ATLC W OF 70W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG
74W FROM 21N-32W WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CENTER NEAR
30N74W. THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ALONG 60W ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 32N TO THE N
COAST OF THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 67W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH
WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER BENIGN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PRODUCING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC E OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB
HIGH S OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N30W. THIS SURFACE RIDGE COUPLED
WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE IS GIVING THE REMINDER OF THE ATLC
FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING.

$$
WALLACE
NoGaps must think the High will remain strong and force the low to the west! GFS says it will head NE! CMC meanders it along the mid-atlantic coast. Yep, all over the place SJ! I like the Nogaps, we need the rains, have to see what materializes.
Great link pat. Thanks!
Morning TCW
Big Bad rumbling storms rolled thru NOLA last night and this morning. One big cell nearing me now from the west. Link
Morning SJ!
Hello all
Looks as though the NOGAPS predicts the low to be off the SW coast of Fl. just at the same time as the GFS predicts the shear to drop off for the Eastern gulf all the way up to the panhandle.Interesting.Any thoughts?
will be interesting to watch what happens off the SE coast early next week.....

when most of the major models show "something", more interesting than just one model.....

have a good weekend everybody! :)
what could we be seeing thel?
arent you in MB?
I'm in wilmington
Morning StormW! Could it bring us any RAIN? :)

what is the link to the Nogaps model?
It seems that most of the models are showing development in the same area,but they have different ideas on where the storm will go.
where does one find these links?
GOOGLE ,.. the model you want to get the links.
Models are just tools for forecasting. They mean nothing individually..its the consensus of the whole model package that one looks at to see the trends and future,POSSIBLE secnarios. No ONE model is better than another. Its the mean spread of consensus that is important. There is NO system developing. ..now. Or expected.
Good morning all......I would love to see a "squeeze play" in the gulf and atlantic next week just park over Florida and soak us for a few days.....Mucho Needed.......It will be fun to watch but TS development is not likely
model link http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
The UNISYS GFSx (x for experimental)..shows the BLIP in the Carribean at the end of the period run. Its only 1 expression of it. Link
Models are just tools for forecasting. They mean nothing individually..its the consensus of the whole model package that one looks at to see the trends and future,POSSIBLE secnarios. No ONE model is better than another. Its the mean spread of consensus that is important. There is NO system developing. ..now. Or expected.

hmm well most of the models are indicating some development of a low. There is no system developing now but a few days out there could be.
Lightening strike at 28 seconds into this movie.....video from this morning.
Mel, you can find some of the most used model pages from here.

The FSU site and the Air Resources Laboratory site are both great for viewing the majority of the models.
kinda big bolt...could have charged my truck battery with that.
Drak, while I agree that the model consensus is generally the best thing to watch, certain models are better at certain times. Ex. During the '05 season the GFDL had a very good year. Specifically during Katrina, the consensus had her going up the E coast of Fla or the panhandle of Florida. The GFDL was the frist model to elude to the S jog while crossing Fla, and then later it was the first one on board with a further W landfall...

Good to see you thel, K8e and everyone else ☺
How's it going SW?

I agree that with the exception of the Gulf Stream, the waters off the Carolinas are still a little cool. Although they are starting to warm fairly quickly now.
106. Inyo
I'm driving from Las Vegas to Grand Junction tomorrow... it looks like I will have a snowstorm to contend with. Not what I expected.

I've got a 4*4 truck with good tires, so I should be okay. The best part - Utah doesn't have dumb California drivers in the ice crashing into things.
For those of you living in Georgia & North Florida where there is smoke from the fire burning in south Georgia. Here is what Dr. Masters had to say about a question of mine:


Hi, smoke is bad to breathe--just as bad as smog. Both have high levels of poarticulate matter, the most dangerous type of pollution to breathe. I would check the AQI (Air Quality Index) for particulate matter before doing your walk, and consider shortening it if the AQI is over 100 (Unhealthy for sensitive groups).

Jeff

*********** Original message follows: ***********
Sent by GainesvilleGator at: 7:47 AM EDT on May 04, 2007

I like your articles on pollution that you put out this week. I have been thinking a lot about the possible consequences of getting in my 4 mile walk (Gainesville, FL) while there is heavy smoke in the air from the fires burning in southern Georgia. Is there any difference between smoke from fires or smog in the big cities? What is your take on the health conseqences from all of this smoke that is in the Southeast from the Georgia fires?

Thank you Dr. Masters for the quick response to my question. I will probably stick with the indoor treadmill at my gym until the smoke clears. This smoke is affecting a very large area so people need to take necessary precautions.
Good to see you GG. Hope y'all get some rain soon!

Good to see ya INYO.
109. 882MB
Hey everybody, The new NAM 12UTC shows the LOW MOVING SW TOWARDS FLORIDA! THIS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE TROPICAL BUT COULD PROVIDE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IF THIS SYSTEM AFFECTS US!ALSO THE NEW GFS 12UTC SHOWS A DISTURBANCE IN THE CARIBBEAN IN THE 6-10 DAY!
I was on Weatherguy03s blog & he has a link to Aquak9's blog. A lot of people have attached photos, many from satellite on the fires in Georgia & Florida. You can clearly see where the fires are & were the smoke if going.
this is probably something we should all not be too excited about seeing right now

i wouldnt trust a GFS forecast more than 3 days out, just too unreliable, especially when conditions are unfavorable
the Saharan Air Layer, it is one of the 3 major things that can prohibit hurricane formation along with Shear and SSTs

Here is a Wikipedia explanation of it...SAL

"The boundary between the SAL and the marine layer suppresses or "caps" any convection originating in the marine layer. Since it is dry air, the lapse rate within the SAL itself is steep, that is, the temperature falls rapidly with height.
Disturbances such as large thunderstorm complexes over North Africa periodically result in vast dust and sand storms, some of which extend as high as 20,000 feet. These can be driven out to sea within the SAL as far west as North America. In the case of Africa, winds blow twenty percent of dust from a Saharan storm out over the Atlantic Ocean, and twenty percent of that, or four percent of a single storm's dust, reaches all the way to the western Atlantic. The remainder settles out into the ocean or washes out of the air with rainfall. NASA scientists think that the July 2000 measurements made in Puerto Rico equaled about one-fifth of the total year's dust deposits. If these estimates hold true over the long term, then the entire state of Florida receives about three feet of dust every million years."
Saharan Air Layer page....Link
Good afternoon guys....

Interesting solution with the Nogaps.
Boomers here..Large Damaging Thunderstorm heading east. Metro area to get some soon...Link
Afternoon 23! I figured you would like that one!
Statement as of 12:08 PM CDT on May 04, 2007

... Flash Flood Watch in effect until 6 PM CDT this evening...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for a portion of southeast Louisiana...
including the following areas... Ascension... East Baton Rouge...
East Feliciana... Iberville... Livingston... Orleans... Pointe
Coupee... St. Charles... St. Helena... St. James... St. John The
Baptist... St. Tammany... Tangipahoa... upper Jefferson... upper
Plaquemines... upper St. Bernard... Washington... West Baton
Rouge and West Feliciana.

* Until 6 PM CDT this evening

* training of thunderstorms along a boundary across east-central
Louisiana from the Baton Rouge area through the North Shore of
Lake Pontchartrain will continue the threat of flash flooding in
the area. This boundary may drift southward and bring the threat
of locally heavy rainfall to the New Orleans Metro area this
afternoon
23, SSTs AND Shear are unfavorable in that area, that is highly unlikely for anything tropical. Rainfall will be abundant though, no doubt about that.
882MB Can you link me to this -->> The new NAM 12UTC shows the LOW MOVING SW TOWARDS FLORIDA!
Posted By: TheCaneWhisperer at 13:15 EDT le 04 mai 2007.

Afternoon 23! I figured you would like that one!

Whats up?

Actually i do cause we need the rain.
I know story but its something to keep an eye on as more models have now jumped on board with the GFS.Rain is welcomed so lets see what happens.
Too much rain here..Im sending it east later today.
Working hard 23! Yeah! I liked that one also, pick up some good rains!
where do the models have it originating at? Is that the wave we saw coming off the coast of Africa a couple days ago?
Front moving through the Midwest right now Story!
Looks to be a cut-off low!
Looks like it is bringing the low from our back door cold front southeastward and develope it off the east coast.
oh its going to originate in the Gulf then?
hey pat, East is OK WEST is still NOT allowed!

jo
12Z NAM! No it originates off the Mid Atlantic Coast!
thanks for the link. That is pretty strange if you ask me..
Right only the CMC has it as a warm core system but it looks more like a warm-core seculision then tropical development.Right SST'S dont favor development in this area so i would not expect anything that significant then maybe a rain maker for florida.Lets hope.
1004mb will definitely bring some decent precipitation your way.
FLOOD WATCH TILL 6pm..radar liting up like Xmas tree. Link
the ITCZ has jumped up quite significantly over the past couple weeks, when it is prime will it be directly in line with the Pacific ITCZ or will it remain a little further south?

Embedded tornadoes in the rouges too...Link
hey pat, get your water wings on that's a "train" heading your way! jo
Getting rates here my locale of 2.1 per hour.Bad..
Here are a few pics from the NAM...

RRRR


gggg
no wonder you want to send it somewhere else, be careful jo
145. code1
Thank you Dr. M for this blog. As one of many here who work in health care, we see the effects of COPD, (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) all too often. It does NOT always involve smoking as your wife has told you undoubtedly. Might be time for her to add her expertise to this oh so important blog for the masses. Thanks again! Always an educational experience here, and much appreciated.
my surfinig report show a low and some really big waves off of Va. on tue of next week
gust over 50 here now...rocking and rolling..O man.
Cam...Link
Cracker...

People surf off of VA? I didn't know that....

:)

Amy
Cell right on top of us here...Link
not sure about Va. , but on the west side of florida, we can't wait for hurricane season
Patrap, I guess I should wait a while before I go down there. Man...this looks like some rain totals could be over 12". It almost has tropical characteristics right over Slidell.
It is just drizzling here to the east in Metairie...very dark outside though
Afternoon all.

I agree TCW. Looks like the models all tend to lean towards a cut-off low now. Have to watch them over the next couple of days and see if that sticks or not. For a while they were all calling for the high to break down and allow it to slip through.

All those in SE GA & NEFL, the 12Z cmc has got your fire releif. Scroll right, click forward.

Story~ The ITCZ needs to get up atleast as high as 10N before we even bother looking out far into the Atlantic. Right now any TD or STD would come from a cut off low or like a peice of trough that inverts & develops.
On the lastest CPC update it seems to develope a moderate nina with SST'S cooling of by august across the atlantic basin.Lets hope that takes place.

6-Month Update....


Posted By: DocNDswamp at 11:51 AM CDT on May 04, 2007.
Excellent explanation of what's happening across S LA / MS depicted on the 12Z GFS by examining the initiation period (not the loop)... Click on the 850, 700RH, and 500 but most particularly - the 300 and 200 mb charts... Look at the divergence aloft over this region, with the flow split... as it pulls apart with N sector flowing towards the NE, S sector flowing to the SE... allowing convective regeneration beneath.. the 12Z GFSLink
Wait...the wind it is picking up...about 25 mph gusts though
DocNDswamp has the explanation for the divergence aloft here today.
Its just a rocking the trailer here. WOWSA!
Its not a warm core system though. I wish it would track across northern FL so we would get some good east winds and rains.
Hey Skypony - what the heck is THAT
Stay safe pat! You got insurance on the FEMA trailer?
Pat,

"If the trailor is a rockin' don't bother knockin'...

If the trailor is a rockin' don't bother knockin'...

If the trailor is a rockin', don't bother...

Come on in!!!!"

:)
melwerle~ That's a model calling for a Tropical Storm..by the time it's near land a Tropical Depression, hitting SE GA & NEFL. It's a firefighters dream come true.
woooo....man it is pouring like crazy! New Orleans is going to flood!
how accurate is that particular model? I'm in Savannah and I would LOVE some rain. Not to mention putting the fire out -the smoke is TERRIBLE.
Its not a warm core system though.

This was from the 12z run - moderately deep symmetric warm-core (tropical; warm seclusions are shallow warm-core unless they are very strong):



Also, don't let the pressure mislead you to think that it will not be that strong; even Category 5 hurricanes don't show up with very low pressures in global models.

(edited to include 12z run)
The CMC model calling for that has in the last few years been the better at calling tropical formation 1st & general direction.. If it is gonna read developing tropical events good this year is yet to be seen & it certainly had it's fair share of false alarms last year. Both the Nogaps & CMC were calling this more a cut off low coming for S to central FL this time yesterday instead of a backdoor front.
it is the Storm forcast sponsored by The Home Depot "where we have the storm hitting every major city where sales are down"
well i would welcome any and all rain at this point. Let me know if anything else comes up.
Well, I just refreshed and the 12z phase analysis is now up - somewhat deeper warm-core now.
279
WUUS54 KLIX 041755
SVRLIX
LAC095-041845-
/O.NEW.KLIX.SV.W.0041.070504T1755Z-070504T1845Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1255 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...RESERVE...LAPLACE...

* UNTIL 145 PM CDT

Wow mel, I did not realize you were that close.

Models are pretty split on what happens. The GFS keeps it off the OBX then moves it south and dissipates it. The Canadian is the GA solution. The Nogaps has it around has it around S Fla as of the 00z run, and the Ukmet has it around the OBX and moves it N.
Afternoon STL

I think if it forms a surface low over the Gulf Stream it could have shot at being a weak warm core system.

Should be interesting to watch...
i would preciate it if someone would keep me posted. I have a hard time following all the models and think most of them are smokin crack sometimes! Where are you StormJunkie? I am in Richmond Hill - right outside of Savannah
If a storm appears "round" on the 850vort it is warm. Warm storms have wind & convection in the middle & appear round, cold core will have worst convection & wind away from the center~ those look like a question mark. An STD looks more like the #9. You can easily see this on satalite & the models. If it looks close or your going for indisputable evedence, there is always the phase analyisis (as STL posted:)
Send some for me, Patrap......
I am in Charleston. So not real close, but not that far either.
JAZZ FEST Be advised..rotating cell heading toward metro NOLA...severe cells with Rotation..seek shelter from these storms....Link
Best start the Pumps Scotty...its going critical.All local networks showing the scene on Radar,... rotations now in 5 spots...Link
Street is filled with water here in N.O....still pouring :(
Its a double whammy.Dont be fooled by the first round..the second cell is catching up fast. There will be a lull..then another severe round.Link
12z Nogaps still has it pretty far south at 84hrs.

Pat, is your FEMA trailor high up off of the ground? Is there a chance it could get flooded???
Pat, that line of storms behind that first batch look pretty rough too. Kinda suprising for being a second line.
Last Image saved. We seeking shelter in the House.Big green sky approaching with low base and Hanging tags. BigDUKE NOLA-7..out.3
Take care pat!
sounds nasty, Pat. Keep your head down !
Afternoon pottery.
Hi, SJ . How are things with you ?
Good pottery, just wondering what this cutoff low will end up bringing...Lot's of places could use the rain of a good tropical depression.
lmao GS ☺
Yeah, SJ ,I nkow what you mean. Dry here too. But we did get 1 mm early this morning, enough to clean the sky ! Looks like our friend Pat is hogging the rain !!
I'm out for a while. Gone to pot. ..
ESPI is down to -1.02, it was like -.68 monday... We should see ENSO really cool in the next few weeks.

Trmm 3 hour rainrates~ Pat you are gettin some rain..
Good pottery, just wondering what this cutoff low will end up bringing...Lot's of places could use the rain of a good tropical depression.


SJ we are so dry in wilmington too!
we havent been this dry in a good while
The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued an

* urban and small stream flood advisory for minor flooding of poor
drainage areas in...
Jefferson Parish in southeast Louisiana...
this includes the cities of... Timberlane... Metairie... Marrero...
Kenner... Harvey... Avondale...
Orleans Parish in southeast Louisiana...
this includes the cities of... New Orleans... east New Orleans...
Plaquemines Parish in southeast Louisiana...
this includes the city of Belle Chasse...
St. Bernard Parish in southeast Louisiana...
this includes the city of Chalmette...
St. Charles Parish in southeast Louisiana...
St. John The Baptist Parish in southeast Louisiana...
this includes the city of LaPlace...

* until 600 PM CDT
Hey StormW - how's it going?

Stopping a Huricane!!! Link
I've been watching the models and how they handle the low forecast to develop off the Carolina coast Monday. The 12Z runs of the GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET are pretty much calling this a cold-cored system; only the Canadian model says it will become warm core. The Canadian model had a major upgrade last October, and the GFS just had one on May 1, so we'll see who's upgrade was better! Right now, I'd say there's a 10% chance that the Carolina low will end up getting subtropical enough to be called Andrea next week. SSTs are 22-23 C which is warm enough to support a subtropical storm, but I'm expecting this storm to be non-tropical. If there's some significant changes in tomorrow's models runs, I'll post a blog in the afternoon.

Jeff Masters
Some interesting news here....

All models now indicate Nina conditions threw atleast october-november.

yyy


More here
Hi anyone in here?? I saw a couple model runs showing some type low forming off east coast n looping back toward fla//ga coast?? anything to this you think?
thanks hurricane 23 for replies man..always nice to have someone who doesnt mind answering questions.. and everyone in here are always nice..:)
Stormhank check your mail...

Basically for now as dr.masters stated it looks a cold-core system atleast thats what models are showing at the moment.Not much chance at being warm-core in nature but sub-tropical is a possibility not high but its there.CMC is the only model that has at warm-core.We'll see.
HI guys,,, I know eastern Ga could use the rain... over 80,000 + acres are gone to due to that wildfire..would be nice for a minor system to bring that area rain now
did anyone look at my link?
Whats up stormw?

Just here on the pc about to go pick up wife at work in a few.I was listening to andrew's noaa radio advisory broadcasts and watching some opal footage on tv.
Posted By: Drakoen at 4:38 PM EDT on May 04, 2007.

did anyone look at my link?

Not in this lifetime...And probably never.
I saw a couple model runs that loop whatever system that may become back towards SE coast... Ga/ north Fla/ south carolina.. any input on this? I prob. read models wrong LOL
Not really stormw just looking at some old footage sent to me from some close friends.I was watching weather channel updates of hurricane gilbert back in 88.

Hopefully this season is free of landfalls.
Afternoon y'all

No hank, you read them right. They are all showing the low getting cutoff and blocked by the high, but the positioning and tracking of it vary greatly between the models.
Posted By: hurricane23 at 8:41 PM GMT on May 04, 2007.

Posted By: Drakoen at 4:38 PM EDT on May 04, 2007.

did anyone look at my link?

Not in this lifetime...And probably never.

Yea thats what i was thinking. there are so many things involved. Peoplem should just leave nature along,(not to be a conformist but) hurricanes come for a reason as everything happens for a reason. I hope that South Florida would be able to get some Sub-Tropical or Tropical depression rains.
Routine street flooding reported across the area, but no reports of water in homes

7
Street flooding was being reported in various sections of the New Orleans area Friday afternoon as severe thunderstorms moved through the area.


The National Weather Service predicted rainfall would fall at a rate of 1 to 2 inches per hour, with some areas receiving as much as 5 inches. Forecasters expected the rainfall to lessen after 3 p.m. While many streets were filled with water, there were no immediate reports of water getting into homes.

Jazzfest was briefly put on hold at about 2:30 p.m., with all outdoor stages shut down, but restarted soonafter, with only slight schedule changes, said Jazzfest spokesman Matthew Goldman. Music in the four tents at the Fair Grounds never stopped.

7
In Uptown New Orleans, St. Charles Avenue was flooded near Loyola and Tulane universities, and Louisiana Avenue was flooded at Prytania Street, near Touro Infirmary. Flooding also was reported in the area of I-10 where it crosses Gentilly Boulevard.

In East Jefferson, officials directed storm runoff in Old Metairie into Pontiff Playground, which was opened as an auxiliary drainage area. The playground was set up as a secondary drainage system after Katrina.

Jeff Nowakowski, Jeffer
son Parish public schools
spokesman, said the rains affected bus transportation at parish schools.

"We're going to temporarily
delay regular bus transporta
tion," he said about 3 p.m. "We have so
many flooded streets the
busses just can't get through.
We can't drop off students
where there is standing water."

Nowakowski said some drivers were able were able to pick up students
from the high schools, but most schools were making arrangements to keep students beyond dismissal time.

The situation improved shortly after 3 p.m. when the rains slacked up throughout much of the area.

Nowakowski said school officials said bus service would resume after a break in the weather, perhaps about 4 p.m.

"We're telling the schools to
hold the kids there, give them a
snack and if parents can come,
great."

The bus service would then resume when conditions stabilized, he said.

Southern University of New Orleans shut down due to severe weather, spokesman Harold Clark Jr. said. This applies to night classes, too, he said.

Heavy downpours have also affected traffic flow on Gen. De Gaulle Drive in Algiers.

Traffic has been reduced to two lanes headed westbound towards the Crescent City Connection. For motorists headed east on Gen. De Gaulle, traffic is limited to one lane.

Gretna police are reporting flooding because of the afternoon storms in several areas in the city, including multiple major intersections.

In St. Bernard Parish, there were widespread reports of street flooding, Parish Councilman Joey DiFatta said. But, he said, "As far as I know no homes that had been rebuilt had any flooding.''

Localized street flooding in LaPlace forced St. John the Baptist School officials to delay dismissing students, schools Superintendent Mike Coburn said. "We're kind of in a holding pattern until the Sheriff's Office and Civil Defense" tells us its OK to release the buses, Coburn said.

St. John's flooding was mostly limited to the east bank, Coburn said
Thanks SJ... time will tell.lol
WOW, I thought you all were kidding about that low off of N Fla! Until Dr Master's left a post.

Man, we could use a good rainy TD or TS in Florida and over Lake O. At least we have something exciting to watch for a few days!

Hi everyone, been lurking a little her but rarely posting during off season. Glad to see some familiar names still hanging around.

Have a great weekend!
Great to see ya gamma ☺
The GFSx shows the storm/low pressure forming ...3
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=MLB&showstorms=100
hey StormW - does this mean RAIN for us? Wooo hooooo!
you're da bomb, Storm - good to see you back.
Good to see you SW, chess, and mel

I was talking about surface analysis maps with some one just the other day. Can't remember who, but I came across this. Be warned this is a large pdf file. Covers the E Pac and the Atlantic. Great map! If I am reading it right you can see where the high that is centered over the Delmarva area is pushing to the E. This is what will cause the high to bridge and cut the low off on Monday or so?

You can also find that link from here.
ok - i'm an idiot - what is the difference between cold core and warm core systems? What is the difference in intensity and such?
seems to be a huge blob south of cuba according to GFS out 384 hourshttp://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_slp_384l.gif
done forgot how to do links LOL
You on a mac SH?

Should be a link button above the Your Comment box.

mel tropical systems are warm core and can get stronger then cold core systems. I also think that warm core systems are usually more symetrical. They close off their windfield. Others would be better to elaborate on the exact differences though.


hello StormJunkie

>You on a mac SH?

Should be a link button above the Your Comment box. <

I'm not SH, but I do have a Mac. And I don't see a linkbutton (or any other button for that matter) above the commentbox...
Should there be one ??
Sorry for the confusion Sw ☺

I don't think the link buttons are there on a mac. That was where I was headed with that.

Nice to meet you though ☺ ☻
Thanks for the answer. I'll do without buttons - don't post links that often *g*

I've been around for a while, lurking.
Thanks for the welcome :-)
NWS Discussion out of puerto rico a few hours ago...

BEYOND THIS...GLOBAL MODELS COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT...AND MORE
IN LINE WITH THE UKMET...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE HANDLED THIS
INTERESTING SCENARIO BEST FROM THE OUTSET. A SIGNIFICANT S/W IS
FORECAST TO DIVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF W ATLC UPPER TROUGH AND
PINCH OFF A STRONG VORT MAX OFF THE CAROLINAS...WITH SURFACE
DEVELOPMENT INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND WHAT BECOMES
OF IT AS IT LINGERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR SO. LOCALLY...THE
REPERCUSSIONS ARE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN A POSITION
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION...AND
AT LOW TO MID LEVELS...S TO SE FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE AND
CONVERGE IT ACROSS THE GENERAL AREA. SO THIS STILL APPEARS TO
PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE GENERAL AREA...AND
POSSIBLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER THE EXACT
EVOLUTION AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS ACROSS THE
ATLC WILL HELP TO DICTATE WITH HAPPENS LOCALLY. WITH THAT...WE
CONTINUE TO FORECAST 50-60% CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THIS LONGER
RANGE...AND WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW IT EVOLVES TO FINE TUNE AS WE GET CLOSER.
Hello everyone, I hope you didn't forget me. I am ready to start watching the H season! I have learned so much here, and hope to learn more! Thank you for all of the info!

I hope your ALL having a wonderful night!
The Blob exits into warm SSTs....itsa heading ESe. 6
nm
wunderground.com Link
nm
So what is everones opion on the weather for the kentucky derby i see rain but will it be a thunderstorm race goes at aroud 6pm .
Probably there will be no Andrea--but this is an interesting reminder of what is possible in May:

Link
Evening SSIG, good to see you. Hope y'all get some rain and relief from the smoke soon.

Just looked at the 18z GFS and it seems to loose the system all together. Looks like the high builds in strong and keeps the low from doing anything.
No smoke today (unlike yesterday) We sure could use some rain here in Florida!
If we have a La Nina this year, does that mean the winds will blow from east to west and not west to east as they did last year?
Evening all.

I think that is correct chicklet, but am not certain. I think it should reduce the shear that we saw last year more importantly. But maybe some one could elaborate better then I.

The Weather page at StormJunkie.com has finally been updated. So it is no longer blank!~) I will add another weather link page before too long. Have also added a couple of links to the Qucik Links page.
I wouldn't be surprised, May storms are extremely unusual, especially in the first 10 days. We have not had much smoke here on the islands--the sea breeze keeps the air clear. But the smoke is making a deep haze higher up, and the sunsets are lurid!
hi all- well we will see how this develops, i am in the fl panhandle- so needless to say we will be closely wathching
A flash back to 1998. Thunderstorms in So Cal in August? Yep I remember the micro burst over my area. Little rain hit the ground but winds and lightning where very intense.

...maybe this will lend some "validity" to the "smell factor."

...evidence is getting stronger to this acuity in forecasting of land-falling storms!!!

(more later...read on!)(story is dated, today, 5/4/07)

Canadian MP Mike Lake is calling for Bigfoot, the legendary hairy man-like beast said to roam the wildernesses of North America, to be protected as an endangered species.(AFP/Illustration)


OTTAWA (AFP) - Bigfoot, the legendary hairy man-like beast said to roam the wildernesses of North America, is not shy, merely so rare it risks extinction and should be protected as an endangered species.

So says Canadian MP Mike Lake who has called for Bigfoot to be protected under Canada's species at risk act, alongside Whooping Cranes, Blue Whales, and Red Mulberry trees.

"The debate over their (Bigfoot's) existence is moot in the circumstance of their tenuous hold on merely existing," reads a petition presented by Lake to parliament in March and due to be discussed next week.

"Therefore, the petitioners request the House of Commons to establish immediate, comprehensive legislation to affect immediate protection of Bigfoot," says the petition signed by almost 500 of Lake's constituents in Edmonton, Alberta.

A similar appeal has been made to the US Congress.

Down through history, there have been numerous, if unsubstantiated sightings of Bigfoot, also known as Sasquatch in North American folklore.

The beast is said to inhabit remote forests, mainly in the US Pacific northwest and western Canada, and many believe it could be related to the equally mythical Yeti said to have found its home in Tibet and Nepal.

While sometimes described as large, hairy bipedal hominoids, Bigfoot are considered by most experts to be a combination of folklore and hoaxes.

But the legend remains strong, and Bigfoot researcher Todd Standing, who was behind the petition, claims to have proof of its existence, and says he fears for its safety.

"When I get species protection for them nationwide, I will make my findings public and I will take this out of the realm of mythology. Bigfoot is real," Standing told Global National television news.

He said he has 12 seconds of video footage of Bigfoot roaming Canada's western Rocky Mountains included in a 30-minute documentary, but his detractors say it was staged with actors.

His supporters hail from Canada's westernmost provinces, but Bigfoot sightings have been reported across the country, which is 90 percent uninhabited.

...sitings down in the Keys, NOrleans, Cuba...all substantiate what's been happening with the big fellow's migration in the past few years...and consequently, representative of one of the contributing factors of more severe, and more land-falling storms.

....stay tuned!!!!!
moonlight you're starting to get a little creepy with your smelling and bigfoot nonsense lol jk
...creepy? don't laugh, Story! The "smell factor" is real (lol) and this report is just one example of substantive land-falling hypothesis.

Certainly, as "accurate" as the many casts (tunnels???) about this time of year...is there a low now? oh well, more "substance" to follow soon...have an open mind...casting is not as "scientific" as some on this blog would lead us to believe!!!

Have a GR8 weekend! (don't let the "smell" fool you...it's real!)
eyestoplogo1left.jpg

....they're around...watch for early storms this year...you'll see! the "smell" is definitely a factor.
Here is NASA MODIS Satellite rapid response team imagery from May 2 of the fires in Southern Georgia. There is also substantial background PM 2.5 from long range transport of emissions from fires in the Yucatan Peninsula

May 2 firest in Southern Georgia with transport from Yucatan Peninsula fires

Here is the article from the NASA website:

Link

Posted By: Chicklit at 9:49 PM EDT on May 04, 2007.
If we have a La Nina this year, does that mean the winds will blow from east to west and not west to east as they did last year?


During Hurricane season, the lower level (Trade Winds) move from the east to the west, both in El Nino and La Nina! The winds above the surface are affected by ENSO (LaNina / ElNino) During a La Nina, the upper level winds (west to east) are much less than what you would see during an El Nino. They are still present during La Nina but, not in a destructive nature. El Nino enhances the west to east winds to a destructive nature, like 06.
Good morning,

A terrible situation unfolded in the area of Greensburg lastnight when a possible F4-F5 tornado causeing extreme damage in many areas.My thoughts and prayers go out to these folks.

I'll posting radar pics of this incredible hook echo caught on radar later today.For now here is video coverage out of the area.

Damage videos
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAY 05 2007



ATLANTIC...
MAIN FEATURE IN THE WRN ATLC CONTINUES TO BE THE SFC TROUGH
EXTENDING NE FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS. THIS...ALONG WITH UPPER
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN ATLC AND AND
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...IS SUPPORTING THE OVERCAST
CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS N OF 20N BETWEEN
55W-72W. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN HANDLING THIS SITUATION
PARTICULARLY WELL...THOUGH THE CURRENT CONSENSUS IS FOR
TROUGHING TO CONTINUE EXTENDING NE FROM HISPANIOLA/TURKS AND
CAICOS INTO SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE WEAK WAVES OF CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVING NE. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE ALSO GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING
ANOTHER LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST DURING THE
SUN-TUE TIMEFRAME. THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT MARINE
IMPACTS FOR THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK..
.SEE OFFSHORE WATERS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAOFFNT3 FOR MORE DETAILS.
OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA IS
DOMINATED BY THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A 1030MB SFC HIGH S OF THE
AZORES NEAR 36N29W. THERE IS AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N35W THAT HAS A
TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 35W TO NEAR 10N...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE GENERATING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.

$$
WILLIS



NHC center recognizing cut off low
this is the marine synopsis from NWS

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND TROPICAL NORTH
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SEA...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SAT MAY 05 2007
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N
ATLC FROM 7N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
AMZ088-051530-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
530 AM EDT SAT MAY 05 2007

SYNOPSIS
A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH FROM 31N68W TO
THE SE BAHAMAS WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT E THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR
26N66W THIS AFTERNOON WITH TRAILING TROUGH TO HISPANIOLA. THE
MOVES NE OF AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
N OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...THEN MOVE SE TOWARDS THE NW WATERS
AS IT INTENSIFIES SUN REACHING A PSN NEAR 32N72W LATE SUN NIGHT.
THE LOW THEN IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE SW TO NEAR 31N75W LATE
MON...AND CONTINUE W NEAR 31N THROUGH TUE BEFORE TURNING NW AND
WEAKENING WED.



Morning Storm!
Morning SW, mel, and BT. ☺

Looks like the models still show our feature off the E coast. Pretty interesting scenario shaping up!
Ill be at Jazzfest all day..LOL! Link
Models,smodels..we Jamming today!..heres yesterday...er,last week..I dont remember!...Link
CMC:

cmc

cmc

NAM:

nam

nam



A foo-foo storm,..a wuss. LOL!
A paper storm aint NO storm till it forms. Its all fluff till then.
Morning Everyone! Should I go wash my car? It usually works to bring on some wierd weather thing - which model are people watching?
Morning Pat, have fun today ☺

It is a paper storm for now, but none the less several models calling for a surface low in may that could douse some fires, and could also have an outside chance at becoming warm core is pretty interesting.

Good to see ya phillies. The CMC has been very bullish with this system. Will have to see what happens. The Nogaps takes a weak system all the way down to S Fla and then rides it back up the coast. Now that would be great!
Fires,,storms...not today for me..11am The gates open.

Storms sweep through region



A strong spring downpour overwhelms pumps, knocks out power and downs trees, but Jazzfest takes it in stride

By John Pope and Mark Schleifstein
Staff writer

A two-stage storm dumped as much as 5 inches on the New Orleans area Friday, resulting in an epidemic of street flooding, power outages and swamped cars -- and exposed a persistent problem in New Orleans' stormwater pumping system.

Though the storm caused no major damage or injuries, it knocked down trees, and left thousands of people throughout the area without electricity at its peak. Firefighters rescued an 83-year-old woman from her car after it was inundated where Canal Boulevard crosses under a railroad trestle in Lakeview, where the water ultimately rose over the car's roof. A smattering of other motorists stalled while trying to cross impassable patches of roadway.

Though it didn't flood houses, the storm exposed persistent electrical problems in the city's antiquated stormwater pumping system -- for the second time in six months. Officials with the city Sewerage & Water Board acknowledged that a number of pumps temporarily lost power, among them a 20-minute outage at the massive Pump Station No. 6 on the 17th Street Canal along the Orleans-Jefferson line.

In December, the loss of electricity to some pumps in Pump Station 6 resulted in a drop in the amount of water it could dump into the 17th Street Canal, and contributed to street flooding in Orleans and Jefferson. That power failure also led to demands by Jefferson Parish officials to place one of its officials in the pump station, a request the water board refused.

Jefferson Parish reduced potential flooding Friday by using the flood-water retention ponds built since Katrina at Wally Pontiff Jr. Playground, the park formerly called Metairie Playground. The ponds had been created to provide an alternate destination for any floodwaters that threatened that part of East Jefferson.

Marcia St. Martin, executive director of the city Sewerage & Water Board, said her office kept Jefferson officials informed of the loss of power and pumping capacity.

The commercial power for the Orleans pump stations, produced by Entergy New Orleans, is delivered at 60 cycles. The water board produces its own 25-cycle power that is the primary power source for most pumps. The different cycle power supply dates back to the installation of large pump stations in the city at the beginning of the 20th Century.

Since Katrina, several independent engineering organizations have warned that the differing electrical supplies are a major trouble spot in the city's internal drainage system.

And on Friday, the loss of 60-cycle commercial electricity also knocked out a compressor that increases the pressure of natural gas to operate the water board's 25-cycle power plant, causing it to shut down, too.

Water board officials scrambled to switch to diesel fuel to operate the power plant, but the failure led to most individual pump stations west of the Industrial Canal being knocked out for periods lasting from a few minutes to 45 minutes, St. Martin said.

Most of Friday's street flooding was unavoidable, St. Martin said, despite the pump station problems, because nearly 4 inches of rain fell in much of the city within a few hours.

But she said the power failure remains a troubling problem.

"We're working with the corps to look at ways to protect the 25-cycle electrical system," she said. "We're also going through discussions with Entergy to bring in high-pressured natural gas, which would eliminate that one step in the generating process."

She said the agency also is attempting to rely more on diesel-powered backup generators, whose use has been limited by federal Environmental Protection Agency air emission rules.

"But the real key to this afternoon is, irrespective to our problems, the rainfall event was greater than our capabilities with everything working perfect," she said.

Two bouts of rain

The first round of rain began Friday before dawn, accompanied by loud bursts of thunder and bright, stabbing flashes of lightning. Rain fell again late Friday morning from dark clouds that had hung over the city and suburbs, and the downpour didn't let up until mid-afternoon.

Because so much rain fell so quickly, it outpaced pumps in New Orleans and Jefferson Parish.

At the London Avenue Canal in New Orleans, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers requested the Sewerage & Water Board shut down Pump Station No. 3 at 1:30 p.m. because the water level in the canal reached 4.3 feet. While that would not seem particularly high in a canal where the floodwalls extend 14 feet above sea level, the Army Corps has set conservative limits for those drainage canals that suffered catastrophic floodwall failure during Katrina and allowed a swollen Lake Pontchartain to empty into the city.

The safe water level for the London Avenue Canal is 4 feet. By contrast, the corps set the level at 6 feet for the larger 17th Street Canal, where the water reached 4.75 feet during Friday's deluge. Water in the Orleans Avenue stayed almost 5 feet below the safe water level, said corps spokeswoman Kathy Gibbs.

Water Board Community Relations Director Robert Jackson said shutting down Pump Station No. 3 on the London canal did not affect flooding in the area, as the water was simply rerouted to Pump Station 4 at a different location on the same canal. The rerouting, which lasted about 45 minutes, allowed the water in the canal to drop below the corps' 4-foot limit.

The corps hopes to eventually raise the limit on the London canal about two feet, but must first conduct tests of the walls by filling a portion of the canal and then the entire canal with water. Those tests have not yet been scheduled.

Rain fell too fast to pump

In Jefferson Parish, all the pumps were on and working properly, but they were no match for the deluge, said Deano Bonano, a deputy chief administrative assistant in charge of emergency preparedness.

The maximum amount pumps can drain is 1.5 inches in the first hour, and about a half-inch for each succeeding hour, he said. But, Bonano said, about 3 inches fell in two hours Friday afternoon.

The 17th Street Canal was nearly full near Metairie Road.

In mid-afternoon, Jefferson Parish dispatched fire engines to close off streets with the worst flooding on both sides of the Mississippi River. Some highways had as much as 3 feet of water, Bonano said.

In St. Tammany, minor street flooding was widespread. Many roadside ditches overflowed and some shopping center parking lots were underwater at mid-day.

At U.S. 190 and Carroll Street in Old Mandeville, an area that floods often, the lines of demarcation between highway, ditch and shopping center parking lot became invisible, prompting one motorist to drive headlong into the ditch.

There were a few reports of trees and power lines down, but not reports of major damage.

The Lake Pontchartrain Causeway closed for a brief period at mid-day due to heavy rain and high wind.

In New Orleans, water covered streets and crept into yards in Gentilly, and St. Charles Avenue was flooded near Loyola and Tulane universities. Water levels rose where water levels usually rise in such storms, including underpasses on Canal Boulevard, Interstate 10 and South Carrollton Avenue, and cars stalled out in the resulting ponds.

One of the trapped vehicles on Carrollton Avenue was a beer truck. The situation prompted Tony Mazza to say, "We're thinking about swimming over to the Miller Lite truck."

In an attempt to keep others from meeting that fate, a man in a red parka stood, with a flashlight, in the middle of the street just ahead of the Carrollton dip, trying to get people to do U-turns to avoid getting stuck.

In St. Bernard Parish, which drowned in Hurricane Katrina, streets filled quickly, but parish Council Chairman Joey DiFatta said that "as far as I know, no homes that had been rebuilt had any flooding," he said.

Jazzfest goes on

Despite the pelting rain and high wind, the music never stopped completely at the Jazz and Heritage Festival, spokesman Louis Edwards said.

The outdoor stages were shut down for about 90 minutes Friday afternoon, he said, because of the possibility that lightning might strike electronic equipment -- and the musicians and crew members using them.

People waited out the rain in performance tents, watching performers lucky enough to have been scheduled indoors.

When music resumed on the outdoor stages, all but a handful of acts went on, Edwards said, although some sets had to be shortened to be squeezed into a shorter amount of time.

Despite the downpour, Edwards said he is optimistic that the Fair Grounds infield will be dry today.

"There was a lot of rain last night," he said Friday afternoon, "but when we came out today, it was dry. We think tomorrow, it will be dry."

On Friday night, the Chase Zoo-to-Do, the major annual fund-raiser for the Audubon Nature Institute, went on as scheduled at the Audubon Zoo.

However, a combination of severe weather and a drop in water pressure in the building forced New Orleans' Civil District Court to close, and a lightning strike closed a school in St. Charles Parish.

In some neighborhoods plagued by street flooding in the past, and hit hard by Hurricane Katrina waters, Friday's deluge brought few difficulties, and there were actually words of praise about the drainage system's performance.

Residents of the Broadmoor area said drainage-system upgrades years before Katrina, including the replacement of a major line along Napoleon Avenue, seemed to pay dividends.

Holly Lapeyre, who lives in the 5400 block of South Rocheblave Street, noticed minor street flooding Friday afternoon, but nothing that would cause problems.

"This street and all these streets through here were perfectly dry" not long after the storm passed, she said. "I know that everyone thinks that Broadmoor floods, but unless the levees break, it doesn't flood. I've been very pleased."

Several blocks away in the University section, Versailles Boulevard resident Sherry Palermo said she moved her car onto the grassy neutral ground during the storm.

But, she said, not enough water accumulated in the street to pose a threat.

However, other parts of the city reported serious flooding -- enough to bring back memories of the days after Katrina hit and water stood in some streets for weeks.

In Hollygrove, Alvin Branch said the sight of water in the street shook him, even though none got into his house or car.

"If it would have continued, you don't know what would have happened," he said. "It was rising. We don't need no more of that.

"I had 5 feet in my house (after Katrina). I don't want to go through those changes no more. No, indeed."
You kind of have to watch all of them mel, and then you have a decent idea of the different scenarios. Once they all show pretty much the same thing then you usually, but not always, have a good idea of what is going on.
Have fun at Jazz Fest Pat, wish I could be there!!
Thank you, StormJunkie - so basically, something is out there but they are not sure what the heck it's going to do. oh well.
Ill do a dance for ya Homegirl.And I will dedicate my Soft-shell CRAB po-boy to yas!.
UMMMMMMMM, Thanks:)
lol mel, yep something should be out there and it is wait and see on what it does. Pretty much the way tropical season goes...
Guess i'll go water my plants again since the rain went NORTH as usual. Everything I have planted is dying - can't keep up with watering it - even my lawn is going. The TREE FROGS are even drying out! Could have sworn i heard one croak "water" last night while I was sitting on my porch...
lol mel, hopefully this thing works out well for all!
Hey StormW - still here!
Good morning,

Global models still hanging on with the solution off developing a low then moving it west to southwest partly associated with the backdoor front set to move offshore late sunday.If the 00z Nogaps were to verify florida would probably get some much needed rain in some areas.Iam leaning towards the GFS solution keeping it offshore as it falls apart or slowly moves NE.
How exciting. A possible may storm. If this thing forms, I think y'all will eventually get your rain even if it doesn't hit you. Another storm is bound to be just around the corner. (God forbid it be any higher than cat 1.)
299. MZT
This might become a "tropical low" but I don't think it will have enough time to develop into a named system.
hello
Wow that was some rain we had yesterday here in New Orleans

I had to walk through the parking lot of Tulane University up to my knees in water to reach my car, then had to drive to work!!

Next time there is a forcast of "whole lotta rain coming your way", I'm taking my truck and not my little Ford Focus, I thought I was going to get swamped numerous times.

What a nightmare... and I really wish I had had my digital camera to take pics for you all. If you've never seen the wake that an 18 wheeler makes, you're in for a suprise.
The begin stages of the developing low seem to be taking shape....

low
Morning all.

23, the thing I found fishy abgout the GFS is it has been the one trying to push it out to sea all along and now it looks like it is even having to go with the cutoff scenario. Not sure I have a lot of faith in any of the models yet as far as track and intensity go. Will be interesting to watch though.
304. RL3AO
Looks like we got some excitment here. Whats the shear like off of the SE coast?
Even of more importance the NHC has now placed a floater on the low.

NHC
Morning SJ & H23

The Greensburg Tornado was some monster wedge. My Prayers go out to all effected.
Good to see you RL, I have nto checked lately, but a day or two ago the area where the low was supposed to form was to have very low shear.
No kidding TS2. I was watching some of that radar last night. Crazy.


Thoughts are with those folks.
Low now on floater so you can watch it there.
Here we go...looks like we might have something to finally kill the fires


THOUGH THE CURRENT CONSENSUS IS FOR
TROUGHING TO CONTINUE EXTENDING NE FROM HISPANIOLA/TURKS AND
CAICOS INTO SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE WEAK WAVES OF CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVING NE. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE ALSO GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING
ANOTHER LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST DURING THE
SUN-TUE TIMEFRAME. THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT MARINE
IMPACTS FOR THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
Think it'll be an invest adrian?
The upper level shear is moderate. However the mid-level shear is only 10-15kts and dropping realativly quickly. With the 24 degree water, i think the development will be more subtropical than tropical.
check accuweather's headlines.
314. RL3AO
With the 24 degree water, i think the development will be more subtropical than tropical.

How many times did we hear that in 2005?
Kris i think the chance is somewhat there but we have to wait and see how things develope.
Sounds about right sf. Although I still give it an outside chance to become warm core if it meanders up and down the Gulf Stream a little.
317. RL3AO
1
Fox News saying that 90% of the town effected by the massive tornado has been leveled
Wind shear forecast:




Looking at the 12z NMM I think it could develop enough of an inner core to be a subtropical storm or depression.
TS2,you should've seen that mesocyclone on radar.
Very well defined and sitting right on top of the town.
It's a pity i missed it
Yea i saw that yesterday kris windshear not a problem occording to that.
Or at least not a huge problem.
I have radar images from last night saved at home will probably post a few later.Amazeing hook echo.
SJ-Plus, the further south it goes the closer SSTs get to the magic 26. As usual, time will tell.
This low is just another reminder that the time has nearly arrived once again
seminolesfan the Nogaps solution would have to verify.
Will it be a "sit-'n-spin"?
Sit n spin
225mb winds 7/7 1200
Will it be affected by the GSL (Georgia Smoke Layer) LOL (I know, not really funny)
NMM showing a very symmetrical system in 60 hours.


n
As usual, time will tell.

lol...That and wait and see should be the motos for tropical season...
Note how there's even a thickness line closed around it.
The Nogaps solution would have to verify.

Not sure what you mean by that 23?
SJ The nogaps brings the low SSW and closer to the coast.
Which is a SSW dive on the current run.
Understand that 23, but why does it have to verify? Or were you just talking about it getting further in to warmer water by taking that route?

Looks like most of the temps in the Gulf Stream up to NC are about 26. Nice look at it in the maps in my blog.
Should get the latest nogaps soon from the Naval METOC site
Here it is at 108hrs.
Yep, but that is the 00z run. It will be interesting to see what the 12z run does with it.

Should get the rest of the 12z runs between 1 and 2.
Well it looks interesting out there. See y'all later...have a great day!
The chance is there for sub-tropical development and even a slight chance at warm core.We'll see.
the Navy model isn't the only one showing a southward component to movement.

The CMC and ECMWF show S movement and the UKMET is shifting further S from 12z yesterday to 00z today.

Of the five I mentioned the GFS is the outlier.
I'm not sure but could you say, Warm Core Seclusion with this storm
You can clearly see begining to spin up on this visible loop.
It certainly is getting it's act together
348. RL3AO
still seems to be getting sheared a little too much.
Good point sf. I was elluding to that earlier when I was talking about the GFS having been the one that wanted to let it slip through the high... Seems like the GFS has been underestimating the high for quite a few runs now.
If the NAM verifys we will most likely have our first named storm.
According to the NAM it would be like Hurricane Ophelia (2005) with it alternating in strength and having an erratic track although it will not form in the Bahamas like Ophelia did.
Tornado Watch 232

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 232
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
955 AM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 955 AM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 90 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
BROKEN BOW NEBRASKA TO 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RUSSELL KANSAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...VERY POTENT TORNADIC SUPERCELL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS
WATCH AREA AS AIR MASS IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH VERY FAVORABLE
SHEAR PROFILES. WITH LITTLE INHIBITION REMAINING ALONG E OF DRY
LINE...STORMS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WRN
KS INTO SWRN NEB. TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LONG TRACK/VIOLENT TORNADOS. AS DRY LINE REMAINS WRN KS THRU
THE AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE
LIKELY OFF THE DRY LINE THRU THE EVENING HOURS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040.
I see an eye!Link
^I see a brown-eye.

LOL
Come on kris, seriously quite the joking around...There is no eye, and not gonna be.
And a NW eyewall.Link
SJ,I see a clearer area near the low on that image.
Particuarly on the 84h image.It likely won't happen,but still...
If the NMM is correct,we will have our first hurricane of the year.
Clearer area maybe, but no eye per se. If this thing beats all odds, it would become a tropical storm at best, and there are no eyes in tropcial storms ☺
Those pressures would never pan out in reality.
Models tend to be overly agressive on MSLP forcasts unless they're storm scale equations.
Actually strong tropical storms can have eyes. Ernesto did as he was hitting North Carolina.
363. MZT
The models are often ambitious early in the year, with the first systems they can lock onto.

It needs to at least be a depression, before I'd be concerned it could become a hurricane. Lows commonly form in that area. Normally they get picked up and move up the east coast as nor'easters.

hello all ...Is this system going to affect florida coast? Or to early to tell??
The NMM des typically overdo TCs,though.
sh-you know its WAY TOO early!! :)
Hey guys I must be gettin old timers disease but refresh my memory on how this LINK thingy works...i cant get it to work for me and Im getting gray hair fast LOL
The GFS 12z forecast is starting to come out and is already on 24hrs.
Link
Looks like the latest GFS wants to push it way off shore.
CNN is reporting the whole town of Greenburg KS has been wiped out by a tornado.
mgreen91, yeah it's been wiped off the map
SJ ,, kris .. you got mail
12z GFS 60 hour...http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/fp0_060.shtml
well didnt work again go figure
Is This the Link you tried to post stormhank?
Are we blob watching yet?
380. MZT
>>Upper level anticyclone right over it.

>Those winds are counterclockwise

Shhh! Don't spoil the wishcasting! ;-)
What a sad night for Greensburg Kansas. This sure is an ugly tornado season!
Upper level anticyclone right over it.

You know that image is very interesting. What it shows is an upper low associated with the rogue storm, but near the storm the winds turn to clockwise, meaning that the GFS thinks that the rogue storm will create its own outlow! This will be interesting to watch lol.
I won't really believe the forecast storm until I see it. But I would looooooooooove to get a good windy period and a foot of rain over 3 days!
Accuweather seems to think it could become andrea next week.A heck of a start to the season if this occurs.

GGG
How many times has a storm formed in early May? Or could this be the first one?
388. MZT
It does look like Wilmington Radar is showing a disturbance forming. A squall line arcing towards the northwest, about 100 miles offshore?
NHC in 72hrs...

fff
Hey Adrian, don't go assuming that Accuweather thinks it will become Andrea. That graphic suggests NOTHING about tropical development.
391. MZT
CaneAddict17, I'd say that May storms are the equivalent of December storms. They happen, rarely, but aren't "freak ocurrances".
It's getting bad in Kansas.

3 Tornado watches are up with 2 of them being a PDS
How many storms have headed in this direction though? Remember the first storm of 05 heading east from mexico.
TORNADO WARNING IN EFFECT IN NEBRASKA

ggg

While the Atlantic Hurricane Season does not officially begin until June 1, the first storm of the 2007 season could be named early next week. The storm that may acquire the name Andrea will take shape off the Southeast coast by Monday. Since the storm will develop when a cold pool of air gets removed from the fast-flowing jet stream, the storm will not be a true tropical system. It may though have enough tropical characteristics to warrant a name. Whether or not it becomes Andrea, the storm will make its presence known across the Southeast coast early next week. The flow of air wedged between the storm and an area of high pressure to the north will cause strong gusty winds to rough up the coastline. Since the storm should meander offshore Monday and Tuesday, the chance for rain only exists along the North Carolina coast. Continue to check back with AccuWeather.com for the latest on this storm as its exact track will be finessed.
Ok Adrian, my bad lol. Yeah they're hyping it a little I guess. They're not far wrong though. To be honest I agree with them. I haven't looked at shear forecasts yet though I should do that...
398. MZT
It's pretty clear to me now from radar that there are northwestward moving rainclouds, offshore of Wilmington. If those start to wrap westerly and then southwest, we may have a circulation out there.
GFS windshear dies off around that whole area next week.
Come to Tampa,My sand needs watered.
Ok, first of all it is NOT forming already. It won't be there for another 24-36 hours, so the stuff on the radar isn't part of it. Second, the wind shear doesn't die off completely next week. It gets down to 10-15 knots for about 36 hours and then goes back up to 30 on average the whole time. The possibility of development is remote, but not out of the question.
This is from the NHC:

VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A SWIRL
OF LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW. THIS LOW
WILL MOVE MAINLY E WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALSO GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST DURING THE SUN-TUE TIMEFRAME. THIS FEATURE COULD HAVE
SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS FOR THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE FROM A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING NOW ALONG 31N WEST OF 60W. THIS SFC LOW MAY
REACH STORM FORCE WINDS AS IT MAKES A LOOPING TYPE MOTION OFF
THE SE US.
Funny thing about May storms is that we havent had one in like 25 years. We've had more April storms since then. If anything we're overdue - and the SE Coast/GoM are normal places for that to happen.

However, I'm still very skeptical of the whole thing. SST's are marginal at best, unless it can park itself over the gulf stream and stay there. Modeled shear is high, and somehow those things have this surface low finding, or creating, an area of low shear. This all just seems real farfetched to me.
So they're saying the L developing now will move off the the east and 'another low' is what the models are forcasting to develop, right?
It looks like we would have a few items of interest if it wasn't for the shear.
Can/Have any storms ever effected the shearing to a piont where it is favorable for other storms to develope?
The 12z UKMET shows it developing, moving over Florida, and dissipating.
i12BNEi...If you mean do tropical storm change the winds to lower shear around them, then usually not.

Since tropical storms have outflow in the upper levels that gets very fast as the storm gets stronger this outflow creates areas of shear around the storm. If two storms come close enough to each other the different areas of outflow will interfere with each other and weaken the storms.
410. MZT
One of the problems with Alberto last year was there were multiple vortices, and it took him a long time to organize. Seemed like we spent a couple of days here debating where the real center was. Even the NHC wasn't sure.
HurricaneMyles Thank you.
I looked back and the only tropical storm to form in the first 10 days of May I could find was Arlene in 1981 Link There may be a few others, but I didn't see any.

Hurricane Able in May 1951, the only major hurricane to form outside the hurricane season in our records, is a worrying precedent. Link It is too bad that we don't have good sea temp records from May 1951, the sea surface temps must have been way above normal.

Still I doubt anything really big will happen.
Arlene in 1981 is the only tropical storm I could find that formed in the first 10 days of May.
New blog up!!!
What about the GDFL model has anyone seen it