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Photos from Climate Impacts Day

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:06 PM GMT on May 06, 2012

On Saturday, May 5, the activist group 350.org, founded by Bill McKibben, launched a new effort to "connect the dots between climate change and extreme weather." They declared May 5 Climate Impacts Day, and coordinated an impressive global effort of nearly 1,000 events in 100 countries to draw attention to the links between climate change and extreme weather. Their new climatedots.org website aims to get people involved to "protest, educate, document and volunteer along with thousands of people around the world to support the communities on the front lines of the climate crisis." Below are photos from some of the many events on Climate Impacts Day as archived on the climatedots.org website. It is remarkable to view the slide show on their web site and see the degree of global participation this event had; 350.org has created a dedicated and creative global climate movement that will be a major force to reckon with in the coming years.


Figure 1. Volunteers in the city of Salvador, Brazil, have connected the dots have and drawn people's attention to sea level rise and what it impacts in our life.


Figure 2. Madaba, Jordan. "Drops (of water) are dots of hope". A beautiful message from King's Academy in drought-prone Jordan.


Figure 3. Activists hold a banner in front of a damaged coral reef in the vulnerable Marshall Islands. Rising temperatures and increased CO2 uptake are raising the acidity of the ocean, which bleaches and ultimately kills fragile coral reefs.


Figure 4. One thousand students in Bekaa, Lebanon make their dots into the wheels of a giant bicycle to raise awareness about the threat of air pollution, and to advocate for bike lanes.


Figure 5. In 2009, at 17,785 feet in Bolivia's Cordillera Oriental was the Chacaltaya Glacier. Before its unexpected melting, it was home to Bolivia's only ski resort and the first tow-rope ever to be built in South America. Today all that remains is a rocky mountain-top that only receives seasonal snowfall. Photo by Lauren Farnsworth.


Figure 6. Ausable Valley, NY, USA: Young people in New York understand the first-hand impacts of climate change. Hurricane Irene, the third five-hundred-year climate event in the last twelve months, devastated communities in the region and pummeled the beachfront with debris.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments


Love,Hope and care will always be stronger than Hate, Big Energy and idiocy.




Bravo to all Globally who had and have the courage to bring focus and clarity to our Global crisis.




I stand with and Salute all involved.

Hmm thoses pics seem interesting...
Tornado strikes Tsukuba, Japan


Thanks, Dr. Masters. There were many very moving pictures yesterday on the 350.org website. It's heartening to see that so many people around the world "get" it, even if politicians and ideologues here don't.

Anyway, this photo of some of the damage from the Tokyo tornado. EF2, perhaps?:

twister
Quoting Patrap:
Love,Hope and care will always be stronger than Hate, Big Energy and idiocy.

Bravo to all Globally who had and have the courage to bring focus and clarity to our Global crisis.

I stand with and Salute all involved.

Ditto.
Amen.
Ominous space weather newsLink
great blog dr masters n.o. jazz fest today on the web later today
Tom Petty at NOLA JazzFest last weekend,

...for Earth,

"Handle me with care"

The Tokyo tornado damage is interesting to consider in the light of their building codes. I recall the Tsunami videos and how so many of those one and two story houses stayed intact and as a whole unit as they were swept away, before the debris blender / battering ram effect ripped them apart. They also build / reenforce many buildings to be as earthquake resistant as possible.

Anyone else notice the white round tube like structure in the path that looks to have no damage at all?

Ooo. I hear thunder. Pop ups forming out to the West of the Atl metro area for now.
11. DDR
Hello pottery
The damage is pretty significant looking from that tornado.Then again they don't have building codes for those types of things.I've visited Japan before and when I say some of their houses are built out of PAPER I literally mean that.
I'll be glad when we're tracking tropical cyclones, this tornado season hasn't exactly been exciting for storm chasers.

Plus, tropical cyclones last longer.
Weak low pressure near the ABC islands will move NE and bring even more rain to the already saturated grounds of some of the islands.

This website is quickly becoming a joke.

500 year hurricane in NY? How the heck do you know what happened beyond 100 years ago in regard to hurricanes... No satellite or radar.
5:

Looks like isolated damage, like only the weakest buildings suffered heavy damage.

Funnel looks like it was at most few a hundred feed wide too, unless there was more not seen on the video.
Quoting washingtonian115:
The damage is pretty significant looking from that tornado.Then again they don't have building codes for those types of things.I've visited Japan before and when I say some of their houses are built out of PAPER I literally mean that.


Yes. Their older, traditional houses are hardly what I'd call "shelter". More like a death trap in a wind or fire event.
Quoting jonger1150:
This website is quickly becoming a joke.

500 year hurricane in NY? How the heck do you know what happened beyond 100 years ago in regard to hurricanes... No satellite or radar.


People on the ground and in sailing ships did not exist 500 years ago either. Right!
19. DDR
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Weak low pressure near the ABC islands will move NE and bring even more rain to the already saturated grounds of some of the islands.


Hi there,very unusual for this time of year don't you think?
t-storms popping up now around ATL, with a lot of lightning s of me.
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
A challenging call to action for the world powers at large.
One day in our cycle around the sun isn't enough.
The damage is done daily and without conscious.
I support them and will continue to.
Thanks again Dr. Masters
Quoting jonger1150:
This website is quickly becoming a joke.

500 year hurricane in NY? How the heck do you know what happened beyond 100 years ago in regard to hurricanes... No satellite or radar.


Soil core samples can find deposition layers of sand, silt, and other debris.

Geologists and meteorologists can similarly find unknown tsunami, volcano, and earthquake events through core samples. It's not perfect, but you can say within a certain range of error how big an event was and when it happened.

Dendro-chronology and also study of the Oxygen isotope ratios in tree debris can be used as markers to identify hurricane landfalls, because hurricanes actually distill water by Oxygen isotope.


Old written records of various events still exist in universities, libraries, and other public institutions, which researchers can find if they know where to look.

In modern times, we have video and digital media, so it will be interesting to see how those are maintained through the decades.

When the next "Katrina" happens, hopefully they'll spend 24 to 36 hours playing the videos, especially the more personal ones with the guy sitting on his roof while everything is destroyed, etc, so that people will bother to listen. Then gain, they tried that with the Betsy and Camille footage and it didn't work, because somewhere along the lines everyone has a disconnect and the "it'll never happen to me," mentality.

Well, it will, and it did, as well all know.


What if Katrina had made landfall at peak intensity? The death toll would have been 10 or 100 times worse. Many people on this blog right now who chose to ride out the storm would be dead, even scores of miles away from the eye.


"Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it."

How true that is of American coastal zoning.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
I feel inspired!!!



You did it wrong. :(

It's supposed to be:

PREVENT

ALL THE CLIMATE CHANGE
Quoting RTSplayer:


Yes. Their older, traditional houses are hardly what I'd call "shelter". More like a death trap in a wind or fire event.
Also tsunami event since the houses can get knocked away within seconds.
Quoting yqt1001:


You did it wrong. :(

It's supposed to be:

PREVENT

ALL THE CLIMATE CHANGE


i just woke up cut me some slack will ya!!
Does any1 know what happeded to the 3 or 4 minute attack N Korea was going to do on S Korea?
Was that all bluffing?
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Does any1 know what happeded to the 3 or 4 minute attack N Korea was going to do on S Korea?
Was that all bluffing?


Of course it was bluffing! That's all North Korea ever does!

And nice avatar by the way!
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Does any1 know what happeded to the 3 or 4 minute attack N Korea was going to do on S Korea?
Was that all bluffing?


The rumours of a large army are more powerful than the army itself.
15 jonger1150: This website is quickly becoming a joke.
500 year hurricane in NY? How the heck do you know what happened beyond 100 years ago in regard to hurricanes... No satellite or radar.


Grothar is better than radar. Everybody knows that.
Quoting jonger1150:
This website is quickly becoming a joke.

500 year hurricane in NY? How the heck do you know what happened beyond 100 years ago in regard to hurricanes... No satellite or radar.


The post of the year - thank you !! I'm glad that there are a few of us with brains on this blog.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Tornado strikes Tsukuba, Japan




Too bad for the people in Japan, specially in Tokio... for those affected....

Nuclear radiation, Tsunami, earthquakes, a tornado, typhoons.... corruption....

The only events missing would be a big volcano eruption and being hit by a meteor....
Quoting sunlinepr:


Too bad for the people in Japan, specially on Tokio... for those affected....

Nuclear radiation, Tsunami, earthquakes, a tornado, typhoons.... corruption....

The only events missing would be a big volcano eruption and being hit by a meteor....



hey thats not nic but still your right
The 2013 Weather Channel(Aust) Calender has been released. Here are a few examples.













Some help for those who seem to interpret "100-year flood" or "500-year storm" a little too literally:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Return_period
Quoting sunlinepr:


Too bad for the people in Japan, specially in Tokio... for those affected....

Nuclear radiation, Tsunami, earthquakes, a tornado, typhoons.... corruption....

The only events missing would be a big volcano eruption and being hit by a meteor....

They have had volcano eruptions. Big but not Massive
Quoting AussieStorm:
The 2013 Weather Channel(Aust) Calender has been released. Here are a few examples.
















nic photos
Quoting Tazmanian:



hey thats not nic but still your right


For sure we expect, the best for Japan. By the way I forgot the 2 Nukes in WWII. It is the only country with that record....

But my wishes for Japan right now is that the government takes inmediate action towards saving the people from radiation....
That's the main concern right now... they must take action inmediatelly....
Quoting jonger1150:
This website is quickly becoming a joke.

500 year hurricane in NY? How the heck do you know what happened beyond 100 years ago in regard to hurricanes... No satellite or radar.


You know, I've been hearing that statement since 2006.

Still a great site and blog to be on.
Good morning Hawaii.

Dang! Yesterday got up to 95 in my area in Hillsborough, and it's already 88 degrees here. We need our rainy season to start up soon, because FL summer is back.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Dang! Yesterday got up to 95 in my area in Hillsborough, and it's already 88 degrees here. We need our rainy season to start up soon, because FL summer is back.



Lol, I'm bored.
Quoting aspectre:
15 jonger1150: This website is quickly becoming a joke.
500 year hurricane in NY? How the heck do you know what happened beyond 100 years ago in regard to hurricanes... No satellite or radar.


Grothar is better than radar. Everybody knows that.


The sediment records reveal past hurricane activity, and their approx strength.
Quoting sunlinepr:


Too bad for the people in Japan, specially in Tokio... for those affected....

Nuclear radiation, Tsunami, earthquakes, a tornado, typhoons.... corruption....

The only events missing would be a big volcano eruption and being hit by a meteor....


Godzilla is even saying, "Man, WATTS UP Wit Dat ?"



Quoting jonger1150:
This website is quickly becoming a joke.

500 year hurricane in NY? How the heck do you know what happened beyond 100 years ago in regard to hurricanes... No satellite or radar.


You are revealing your lack of knowledge when you accuse this site of being a joke.

This site knows what "100 year event" means. You should learn.
Quoting jonger1150:
This website is quickly becoming a joke.

500 year hurricane in NY? How the heck do you know what happened beyond 100 years ago in regard to hurricanes... No satellite or radar.


Sediment record/eyewitness accounts.

Not completely accurate.

Accurate enough to determine if a major hurricane hit.
Quoting sunlinepr:


Daaaaaammmmmmnnnnnn!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting MahFL:


The sediment records reveal past hurricane activity, and their approx strength.


very well put.

Dr. Ivor Van Heerden who did the post failure study of the 17th Street Canal Katrina Breech..found that the pilings for the I-wall design, were 17ft down..in the soil. At the exact same depth where a Large Cane laid down a cypress Forest there that allowed the pilings to Fail an thus the Blowout of the Wall to the NOLA side or East.

This is the ONLY video of the Breech of any Levee during K. Shot by the NOFD in the Marina Towers Condos.

We were 1 mile west on the Unbroken side in Jefferson Parish.





Quoting Neapolitan:
Thanks, Dr. Masters. There were many very moving pictures yesterday on the 350.org website. It's heartening to see that so many people around the world "get" it, even if politicians and ideologues here don't.

Anyway, this photo of some of the damage from the Tokyo tornado. EF2, perhaps?:

twister

I can't believe there's been two tornadoes on the other side of the world in a matter of two weeks, which are very rare events in those areas. North America is the only continent to frequently have tornadoes at a frequency of normal basis. All other places, its a very rare event, like last year when Argentina had a Tornado, and then this year, France and Japan... I don't know what's wrong with this world, but something ain't right.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Dang! Yesterday got up to 95 in my area in Hillsborough, and it's already 88 degrees here. We need our rainy season to start up soon, because FL summer is back.

Believe me, its already gettin ugly here, i can't imagine what summer's gonna be like if we can't get some tropical systems this way. its been in the 90's since last saturday, and yesturday and the day before it was 98 as a high. Also, before the pattern shifted briefly in March/April and brought us more average temps, in February we got up to 90 for three days. one day reached a peak of 99, and the other days surrounding were in the low 90's, and upper 80's. I hope the climate forecasts are correct and the temps don't go any higher for the summer, cause i don't think I can take a summer with temps in the 110's it was bad enough last year with the drought choking any moisture to limit temps like in 2010. 2010 was heaven for us here, had many tropical systems, average temps, no drought... Crossing my fingers maybe, just maybe, it'll happen again.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

I can't believe there's been two tornadoes on the other side of the world in a matter of two weeks, which are very rare events in those areas. North America is the only continent to frequently have tornadoes at a frequency of normal basis. All other places, its a very rare event, like last year when Argentina had a Tornado, and then this year, France and Japan... I don't know what's wrong with this world, but something ain't right.


Nothing is wrong, it's called weather - it happens. Here is a list of documented tornadoes in Asia, including a deadly outbreak in Moscow which killed over 30 people, oh by the way, that happened in 1904.

Link
Quoting SteveDa1:
For those interested,

April 2012 is now, unbelievably, our 30th month in a row where the mean temperature has been above the 1971-2000 averages.
...and the 325th in a row where the mean has been above the 20th century average (the last month below that average was February 1985).
Quoting Chucktown:


Nothing is wrong, it's called weather - it happens. Here is a list of documented tornadoes in Asia, including a deadly outbreak in Moscow which killed over 30 people, oh by the way, that happened in 1904.

Link

All i'm saying is that they're rare occurences and other places of the world, mainly due to the fact most places worldwide don't have wide open plains, and gulf moisture that fuels many of the big supercells one way or another.
Quoting Chucktown:


Nothing is wrong, it's called weather - it happens. Here is a list of documented tornadoes in Asia, including a deadly outbreak in Moscow which killed over 30 people, oh by the way, that happened in 1904.

Link
1904? So you're agreeing with the OP's contention that destructive tornadoes in Japan are pretty rare, then? I would agree with that, too. They're not unheard of, to be sure...but they're definitely rare.
This may be what we need to get both Aletta and Alberto.



As it stands, I think we will see Aletta between May 15-25.

Alberto between May 21-June 2.
In fact, look what the GFS shows on May 22.

..."its'a Mojo Rising"...
The 12z GFS shows a nice hurricane in the East Pac at 348 hours... It's shown the storm for several runs inconsistently but this is the first time it's really blown it up.
Quoting Neapolitan:
1904? So you're agreeing with the OP's contention that destructive tornadoes in Japan are pretty rare, then? I would agree with that, too. They're not unheard of, to be sure...but they're definitely rare.


Especially Japan!!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
In fact, look what the GFS shows on May 22.


Hey you beat me to it! I thought I was the only one checking the long range GFS
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This may be what we need to get both Aletta and Alberto.



As it stands, I think we will see Aletta between May 15-25.

Alberto between May 21-June 2.


That's especially favorable
Quoting Patrap:
..."its'a Mojo Rising"...


I love that song.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
In fact, look what the GFS shows on May 22.



I'm so ready for it.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
In fact, look what the GFS shows on May 22.




Shoot that's a cane! 991 millibars
Quoting Neapolitan:
...and the 325th in a row where the mean has been above the 20th century average (the last month below that average was February 1985).


325th? Really? Wow. Is that for the whole U.S.?

My post refers to my local area, in Montreal, Quebec.
Huh. From the learn something new everyday department. The deadliest tornado on record occurred in Bangladesh. Daulatpur-Saturia Tornado April 26, 1989, killing ~1300 people.

Bangladesh gets the 3rd most Tornadoes after the US (1) and Canada (2)

5 days ago there was a tornado in Tripura India. (Which borders Bangladesh and is similar in climactic/geographic terms. No video or confirmation though that it was a tornado and not another type of wind. It's very isolated.
It's worth noting that the GFS has shown a 384-hour storm in either the Caribbean or eastern Pacific every day for the past 3 weeks. I called it an early-season quirk at the time because the GFS likes to march the MJO into phases 8 and 1 too fast early in the season. If it shows something at 384 hours now, chances are it will occur later than that, if it occurs.

The UKMET is now onboard with the GFS's timing of the MJO getting into the eastern Pacific and the Caribbean, but the JMA and ECMWF are still slow to bring it out. That is, the pattern should eventually favor tropical/monsoonal stirrings in this area of the world near the latter portion of May and early June, but until the GFS starts showing a consistent time period for activity in the area, its time table can't be trusted.


Tomorrow I'll be going for my 1st ever job practises. Cross your fingers for me!
PS. Nice to see a hurricane in EPAC on GFS run. Wishing for one in the Caribbean!
My first numbers for season(can change):15-8-3
Is this the same 350.org that implied that skeptics be exploded in pools of thier own blood and guts by pushing a red button, and they say Heartland Institute stoops to some new lows? That Unabomber billboard was tasteless, to be sure, but I don't actually remember them calling for the murder or AGW believers for their thought crimes as 350.org kind of did with their infamous "No Pressure" video.
Quoting Neapolitan:
1904? So you're agreeing with the OP's contention that destructive tornadoes in Japan are pretty rare, then? I would agree with that, too. They're not unheard of, to be sure...but they're definitely rare.


I agree they are rare, but just because one happenned yesterday has no connection to what everyone is calling "new extreme" weather. If this happened in 1930, would we even know here in the states or other parts of the world. Probably not because there would be no proof except from the eyewitness accounts and those that were directly affected. Today's technology allows this documentation to become instantaneous and available to practically everyone. This is my opinion as to why we are "seeing" more extreme weather around the globe, not due to any sort of climate change.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0730
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN GA...FL PANHANDLE...SRN AL...CNTRL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 061704Z - 061830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY FROM WRN GA...ACROSS SRN AL INTO CNTRL MS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...REMNANT MCS THAT HAS DRIFTED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO
CNTRL AL HAS FORCED AN EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY INTO WRN GA...ARCING
ACROSS SRN AL INTO CNTRL MS. STRONG HEATING ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS
FEATURE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SFC-3KM
LAPSE RATES NOW APPROACHING 8 C/KM. WHAT LITTLE INHIBITION THAT WAS
OBSERVED THIS MORNING IS EFFECTIVELY GONE AND SFC PARCELS SHOULD
FREELY CONVECT ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW GIVEN THE
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE
QUITE COOL ACROSS THIS REGION WITH 500MB VALUES BETWEEN MINUS
12-14C. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ROBUST UPDRAFTS DESPITE THE
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LATEST THINKING IS TSTMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND UPWARD GROWTH/STORM MERGERS WILL
LIKELY AID IN A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE ARCING CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION THAT
SHOULD PROPAGATE SWD INTO THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAIL/WIND
ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

..DARROW.. 05/06/2012
The first time a tornado has occurred in Japan... Interesting times indeed.
Quoting Chucktown:


I agree they are rare, but just because one happenned yesterday has no connection to what everyone is calling "new extreme" weather. If this happened in 1930, would we even know here in the states or other parts of the world. Probably not because there would be no proof except from the eyewitness accounts and those that were directly affected. Today's technology allows this documentation to become instantaneous and available to practically everyone. This is my opinion as to why we are "seeing" more extreme weather around the globe, not due to any sort of climate change.


It's the thrill of the chase, the talk of the town. If it's not labeled extreme, who the hell is gonna give a hoot?
Quoting EugeneTillman:
The first time a tornado has occurred in Japan... Interesting times indeed.

Japan gets hit by an average of 20 tornadoes every year. Rare indeed, but not the first time the island has been hit.
This was about 4 years ago, I believe. I would translate what the young men were saying, but I don't think it would be appropriate.


Quoting Chucktown:


Nothing is wrong, it's called weather - it happens. Here is a list of documented tornadoes in Asia, including a deadly outbreak in Moscow which killed over 30 people, oh by the way, that happened in 1904.

Link


That's an interesting page.

In the 1800s two tornadoes were reported in all of Asia.

=== 0.02 per year.

(Yes there were lots of people living there and people knew how to write.)

Between 1900 and 1950 there were 3.

=== 0.06 per year.

Between 1900 and 1990 there were 19.

=== 0.2 per year.

Between 1990 and today there were 29. Including the two that were just reported.

=== 1.3 per year.

Might there be a trend?

-------------

Note: Those are days on which tornadoes were reported. Not the number of tornadoes total, the data on the page is not accurate enough for an actual count.
1044 tramp96: Although I am American I grew up in Calgary so I see things a little differently. That's right I'm not a redneck.

Like heck. You sound more like a carpetbagging newcomer of the type that ends up voting in Arizona toward pariah-hood.
Overwhelmingly, those who grew up in Calgary are as proud of being a redneck as a native-born Texan; even when it is closer to an affectation than arising from a lifestyle. Admittedly the liberal amongst them also have a touch of embarrassment about Alberta being politically the northernmost section of the contiguous American BibleBelt.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Japan gets hit by an average of 20 tornadoes every year. Rare indeed, but not the first time the island has been hit.


Thanks!
12 washingtonian115: The damage is pretty significant looking from that tornado.Then again they don't have building codes for those types of things.I've visited Japan before and when I say some of their houses are built out of PAPER I literally mean that.

Far more likely than not, the surviving old shoji-screened homes are more strongly framed than nearly all of the newest-hurricane-code houses built along or near the US coastline. Except in some rural areas, the ones that weren't also weren't valuable enough to be worth saving from postWWII housing developers.
And in areas somewhat close to the coastline, all of the newer shoji-screened buildings are as "hurricane proof" as anything put up by those wealthy enough and hurricane-wary enough to indulge in building/rebuilding well beyond the minimums of the newest-hurricane-code standards. And the rest would at least meet those hurricane-code standards.
Quoting dogsgomoo:
Huh. From the learn something new everyday department. The deadliest tornado on record occurred in Bangladesh. Daulatpur-Saturia Tornado April 26, 1989, killing ~1300 people.

Bangladesh gets the 3rd most Tornadoes after the US (1) and Canada (2)

5 days ago there was a tornado in Tripura India. (Which borders Bangladesh and is similar in climactic/geographic terms. No video or confirmation though that it was a tornado and not another type of wind. It's very isolated.


Here's one:

Quoting Grothar:
This was about 4 years ago, I believe. I would translate what the young men were saying, but I don't think it would be appropriate.




Excuse me while I pick my mouth up from the floor.... WOW
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This may be what we need to get both Aletta and Alberto.



As it stands, I think we will see Aletta between May 15-25.

Alberto between May 21-June 2.

Posted that yesturday, yep... i agree
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
In fact, look what the GFS shows on May 22.


Well looky there...
Quoting weatherh98:



Shoot that's a cane! 991 millibars

No... more like strong TS, close though. Probably 70 mph.
Quoting BobWallace:


That's an interesting page.

In the 1800s two tornadoes were reported in all of Asia.

=== 0.02 per year.

(Yes there were lots of people living there and people knew how to write.)

Between 1900 and 1950 there were 3.

=== 0.06 per year.

Between 1900 and 1990 there were 19.

=== 0.2 per year.

Between 1990 and today there were 29. Including the two that were just reported.

=== 1.3 per year.

Might there be a trend?


Yea, the trend is more people are now on this planet and there are more eyes to see what is happening. Not a day goes by here in the US that a tornado is "missed" by the public or a local NWS. Lets go back to the May 1910 tornado outbreak over western Nebraska, wait, was there a tornado outbreak over western Nebraska in 1910, i don't know, but I can guarantee that there were tornadoes that year in tornado alley that went uncounted, maybe several. Don't you think that this may be a reason why the frequency of "these weather events" is increasing world wide? Its just common sense.
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
Tomorrow I'll be going for my 1st ever job practises. Cross your fingers for me!
PS. Nice to see a hurricane in EPAC on GFS run. Wishing for one in the Caribbean!
My first numbers for season(can change):15-8-3

Still sticking to 14-6-2 for now, if we get a storm or two in late may to late june, then ill be willing to change it. :P
Quoting TemplesOfSyrinxC4:
Is this the same 350.org that implied that skeptics be exploded in pools of thier own blood and guts by pushing a red button, and they say Heartland Institute stoops to some new lows? That Unabomber billboard was tasteless, to be sure, but I don't actually remember them calling for the murder or AGW believers for their thought crimes as 350.org kind of did with their infamous "No Pressure" video.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GQtFyvqqnj4
Quoting Chucktown:


If this happened in 1930, would we even know here in the states or other parts of the world. Probably not because there would be no proof except from the eyewitness accounts and those that were directly affected.


Yes, we most likely would.

All over the world people have been collecting weather data for a long time. Weather historians are quite good at digging out data from all sorts of sources.

A lot of our early weather information comes from ship logs.

The Central England temperature record started in 1659.

Newspapers appeared in China in 1582. In Japan newspapers began in the 1600s.
Quoting Levi32:
It's worth noting that the GFS has shown a 384-hour storm in either the Caribbean or eastern Pacific every day for the past 3 weeks. I called it an early-season quirk at the time because the GFS likes to march the MJO into phases 8 and 1 too fast early in the season. If it shows something at 384 hours now, chances are it will occur later than that, if it occurs.

The UKMET is now onboard with the GFS's timing of the MJO getting into the eastern Pacific and the Caribbean, but the JMA and ECMWF are still slow to bring it out. That is, the pattern should eventually favor tropical/monsoonal stirrings in this area of the world near the latter portion of May and early June, but until the GFS starts showing a consistent time period for activity in the area, its time table can't be trusted.



Does this mean, you'll make a video? Pleaseeee tell me it does. lol
Quoting Chucktown:


Yea, the trend is more people are now on this planet and there are more eyes to see what is happening. Not a day goes by here in the US that a tornado is "missed" by the public or a local NWS. Lets go back to the May 1910 tornado outbreak over western Nebraska, wait, was there a tornado outbreak over western Nebraska in 1910, i don't know, but I can guarantee that there were tornadoes that year in tornado alley that went uncounted, maybe several. Don't you think that this may be a reason why the frequency of "these weather events" is increasing world wide? Its just common sense.


You can argue that some of the US was sparsely populated in the 1800s, but that is not true of most of Asia.

And how do you deal with the increasing occurrence of extreme weather over the last few decades in the US? Are you going to try to tell us that people were not paying attention to the weather in the 1970s and 1980s?

Quoting aspectre:
15 jonger1150: This website is quickly becoming a joke.
500 year hurricane in NY? How the heck do you know what happened beyond 100 years ago in regard to hurricanes... No satellite or radar.


Grothar is better than radar. Everybody knows that.


Thanks, aspectre, but beyond 300 years ago, my memory is a little rusty.
Quoting BobWallace:


You can argue that some of the US was sparsely populated in the 1800s, but that is not true of most of Asia.

And how do you deal with the increasing occurrence of extreme weather over the last few decades in the US? Are you going to try to tell us that people were not paying attention to the weather in the 1970s and 1980s?




In the 1970, scientists were telling us the next ice age is upon us. How did that one turn out?
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
Tomorrow I'll be going for my 1st ever job practises. Cross your fingers for me!
PS. Nice to see a hurricane in EPAC on GFS run. Wishing for one in the Caribbean!
My first numbers for season(can change):15-8-3
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Still sticking to 14-6-2 for now, if we get a storm or two in late may to late june, then ill be willing to change it. :P

I'm sticking with 12-6-3 for now.

A full blog covering my predictions for the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season will be released by Thursday...I'm in the process of making it now.
Thanks Dr. Masters...Good afternoon all. I'm not feeling too well this afternoon...it feels as if i'm coming down with the Flu
Quoting BobWallace:


Yes, we most likely would.

All over the world people have been collecting weather data for a long time. Weather historians are quite good at digging out data from all sorts of sources.

A lot of our early weather information comes from ship logs.

The Central England temperature record started in 1659.

Newspapers appeared in China in 1582. In Japan newspapers began in the 1600s.


Thats all well and good, but these were centralized locations and weather reports and events were very vague back then. Weather stations and reporting ASOS are everywhere now, and don't forget backyard weather stations. All that I'm saying is that nothing gets missed today, every weather event is documented and that of course includes what we have pegged as extreme. Also the media loves to blow this stuff up. I am part of the media, and therefore part of the problem, although I'm on the forecast side, not the reporting side of things. Diane Sawyer of ABC News took some heat back in January when she reported that "tornadoes struck without warning". This couldn't be further from the truth as most had ample warning of 20-30 minutes.

Link
Thanks to all the links and photos of the Tokyo tornado. They really seem to underscore the unique and concentrated forces at work inside tornadic winds that are coupled with battering ram debris when compared to the forces exerted by other "larger" natural disasters like hurricanes or earthquakes.

Japan's east cost gets hit on a regular basis with strong winds and hurricanes and in the north by extremely heavy snow and winds. All of Japan shakes on a regular basis. No matter what criteria one uses, their buildings are built to withstand some forces.

After the 95 Kobe Earthquake I recall reading a lot of follow up studies that noted how many of the older buildings were top heavy, with the roofs pancaking down during an earthquake. Lots of recommendation and changes came out of that to retrofit frames to hold up in swaying/jiggling conditions. But for winds it seems that these are heavy and sturdily anchored roofs. A quality (along with anchoring mechanisms) that could prevent them from being pried up and lifted off by the same sort of winds that blow standard American roofs off? (Conjecture here. I have no idea really.)
Quoting EugeneTillman:



In the 1970, scientists were telling us the next ice age is upon us. How did that one turn out?
That canard is older than you are, Cat5; as has been shown to you and many others many times, the large majority of climate scientists in the 1970s--and earlier--were aware of and predicting warming, not cooling. To believe and/or repeat otherwise is revisionist wishful thinking.
Quoting EugeneTillman:



In the 1970, scientists were telling us the next ice age is upon us. How did that one turn out?


Sorry, you've been taken in by a myth. (It happens in the best of families.)

Fact: A few scientists published papers suggesting that we might be on our way to a new ice age. Many more papers were published which made exactly the opposite predictions.

The papers/thinking predicting an upcoming ice age were shown to be flawed and that thinking died a natural death.


Context: Making incorrect predictions happens.

A good rule of thumb is to believe no new finding.

Wait until at least a couple other papers confirm the findings and the greater body of scientists have had a chance to mull over the issue. Scientists are people and people do make mistakes. (Remember the recent particles traveling faster than the speed of light?)

Important point: When it comes to climate change and the role of greenhouse gases we're into the territory of thousands of supporting papers and extreme (~97%) agreement among climate scientists.

It's no longer a question of whether mankind has caused climate change by burning fossil fuels. That's settled science. The remaining questions are how bad will it get and how quickly.
Quoting Levi32:
It's worth noting that the GFS has shown a 384-hour storm in either the Caribbean or eastern Pacific every day for the past 3 weeks. I called it an early-season quirk at the time because the GFS likes to march the MJO into phases 8 and 1 too fast early in the season. If it shows something at 384 hours now, chances are it will occur later than that, if it occurs.

The UKMET is now onboard with the GFS's timing of the MJO getting into the eastern Pacific and the Caribbean, but the JMA and ECMWF are still slow to bring it out. That is, the pattern should eventually favor tropical/monsoonal stirrings in this area of the world near the latter portion of May and early June, but until the GFS starts showing a consistent time period for activity in the area, its time table can't be trusted.



Hey Levi, what are your preliminary thoughts of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season?
I see a million dots because of all the variables. I don't know exactly how they connect. We may know more in another 50 years or so after a lot of people rake in dollars on the craze.


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 257
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN ALABAMA
FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1250 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF EVERGREEN ALABAMA TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
ALBANY GEORGIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 255...WW 256...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE ORGANIZING THIS AFTERNOON IN AN ARC FROM
W-CNTRL AL TO SWRN GA WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSED ALONG A SWD-MOVING COLD
POOL. AMBIENT AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE OWING TO THE
PRESENCE OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND SEASONABLY COOL MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...THE CHARACTER
OF THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL FOSTER HAIL PRODUCTION AND
DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 36020.


...MEAD
Quoting Grothar: Here's one:
Thanks. That sure looks bad.
Quoting dogsgomoo:
Thanks. That sure looks bad.

That cat of yours, keeps distracting me. lol
13-7-4
There was reports and papers done in the 70's about the coming Ice Age, but not supported by most scientists. It was mostly journalism and not science. Heres a part from Wiki and a link to the whole thing. It was conjecture not science based.


Global cooling was a conjecture during the 1970s of imminent cooling of the Earth's surface and atmosphere along with a posited commencement of glaciation. This hypothesis had little support in the scientific community, but gained temporary popular attention due to a combination of a slight downward trend of temperatures from the 1940s to the early 1970s and press reports that did not accurately reflect the scientific understanding of ice age cycles. In contrast to the global cooling conjecture, the current scientific opinion on climate change is that the Earth has not durably cooled, but undergone global warming throughout the twentieth century.[1]

In the 1970s, there was increasing awareness that estimates of global temperatures showed cooling since 1945. Of those scientific papers considering climate trends over the 21st century, only 10% inclined towards future cooling, while most papers predicted future warming.[2] The general public had little awareness of carbon dioxide's effects on climate, but Science News in May 1959 forecast a 25% increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide in the 150 years from 1850 to 2000, with a consequent warming trend.[3] The actual increase in this period was 29%. Paul R. Ehrlich mentioned climate change from greenhouse gases in 1968.[4] By the time the idea of global cooling reached the public press in the mid-1970s temperatures had stopped falling, and there was concern in the climatological community about carbon dioxide's warming effects.[5] In response to such reports, the World Meteorological Organization issued a warning in June 1976 that a very significant warming of global climate was probable.[6]



i sure hope i get it linked right.



Link
Quoting dogsgomoo:
Thanks. That sure looks bad.


What looks bad? I forgot what I posted.
Quoting weatherh98:
13-7-4


Hike!
Quoting Hangten:
There was reports and papers done in the 70's about the coming Ice Age, but not supported by most scientists. It was mostly journalism and not science. Heres a part from Wiki and a link to the whole thing. It was conjecture not science based.


Global cooling was a conjecture during the 1970s of imminent cooling of the Earth's surface and atmosphere along with a posited commencement of glaciation. This hypothesis had little support in the scientific community, but gained temporary popular attention due to a combination of a slight downward trend of temperatures from the 1940s to the early 1970s and press reports that did not accurately reflect the scientific understanding of ice age cycles. In contrast to the global cooling conjecture, the current scientific opinion on climate change is that the Earth has not durably cooled, but undergone global warming throughout the twentieth century.[1]

In the 1970s, there was increasing awareness that estimates of global temperatures showed cooling since 1945. Of those scientific papers considering climate trends over the 21st century, only 10% inclined towards future cooling, while most papers predicted future warming.[2] The general public had little awareness of carbon dioxide's effects on climate, but Science News in May 1959 forecast a 25% increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide in the 150 years from 1850 to 2000, with a consequent warming trend.[3] The actual increase in this period was 29%. Paul R. Ehrlich mentioned climate change from greenhouse gases in 1968.[4] By the time the idea of global cooling reached the public press in the mid-1970s temperatures had stopped falling, and there was concern in the climatological community about carbon dioxide's warming effects.[5] In response to such reports, the World Meteorological Organization issued a warning in June 1976 that a very significant warming of global climate was probable.[6]



i sure hope i get it linked right.



Link


Actually? The globe did cool marginally. My science teacher showed
A chart of sun spots and global temps, and there were less sunspots in the early 70s
Give me the plus if you think this season would be the most amazing season to watch since 2008!
Quoting Grothar:


Hike!


Huh gro? Speak contemporary english!!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Hey Levi, what are your preliminary thoughts of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season?


Largely unchanged from my outlook in March, though some things always change as the season approaches. For example, we are losing a lot of the anomalous ocean heat content we had in the Gulf of Mexico and southwest Atlantic.

However, my idea remains the same for probably an early-ish start, but an inactive season overall compared to the post-1995 average with 10-12 named storms.


two interesting features this afternoon
Quoting caribbeantracker01:


two interesting features this afternoon


That's a trough
Quoting Levi32:


Largely unchanged from my outlook in March, though some things always change as the season approaches. For example, we are losing a lot of the anomalous ocean heat content we had in the Gulf of Mexico and southwest Atlantic.

However, my idea remains the same for probably an early-ish start, but an inactive season overall compared to the post-1995 average with 10-12 named storms.

Yeah, I've noticed...why is that?
Quoting weatherh98:


Huh gro? Speak contemporary english!!


When you wrote 13-7-4 I thought you were calling football play.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Dang! Yesterday got up to 95 in my area in Hillsborough, and it's already 88 degrees here. We need our rainy season to start up soon, because FL summer is back.

Yes indeed! I'm tired of all heat and no anvil tops....
Quoting Grothar:


When you wrote 13-7-4 I thought you were calling football play.


Lol 33 halfback slam on 2 ready? Break!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, I've noticed...why is that?


A likely explanation is the above-normal wind speeds in April over the area that has cooled:

Quoting weatherh98:


I think there was a little cooling after 1945. But then it started going up. Im not a scientist but I know many and they tell me it is not so much the ground temperature to watch but the troposphere is getting warmer. Would anybody have an idea why this is so?
Quoting Grothar:


What looks bad? I forgot what I posted.


I recommend sticky notes. My cubical is covered in them. Sadly they don't help me to remember where I put my pen.

(The video of tornado damage from Tripura, India.)
Quoting dogsgomoo:


I recommend sticky notes. My cubical is covered in them. Sadly they don't help me to remember where I put my pen.

(The video of tornado damage from Tripura, India.)


Oh, that one. Yeah, it looked bad.
Quoting Levi32:


A likely explanation is the above-normal wind speeds in April over the area that has cooled:


Thanks Levi.
Quoting Grothar:


When you wrote 13-7-4 I thought you were calling football play.
Good afternoon. I am waiting until late May before I hike the ball. I Hope that we come out of this hurricane season without a major disaster. Maybe we could even get a couple of decent tropical storms to wipe out the drought in South Florida and Texas.
Plane crashes near St Maarteen killing Cardiac patient, Medics
Link
Levi - can tropical storm hit Africa? I mean a Fred'09-like situation.
Quoting Levi32:


A likely explanation is the above-normal wind speeds in April over the area that has cooled:



Levi, one thing has always confused me. What is the difference between an anomalous reading and a current one? In this link, it would appear the Gulf and the Gulfstream have warmed back up considerably.

Link
Quoting TemplesOfSyrinxC4:
Is this the same 350.org that implied that skeptics be exploded in pools of thier own blood and guts by pushing a red button, and they say Heartland Institute stoops to some new lows? That Unabomber billboard was tasteless, to be sure, but I don't actually remember them calling for the murder or AGW believers for their thought crimes as 350.org kind of did with their infamous "No Pressure" video.


You might be confusing two different global climate change advocacy groups. The head of 350.org project spoke out against the No Pressure short.
Quoting hydrus:
Good afternoon. I am waiting until late May before I hike the ball. I Hope that we come out of this hurricane season without a major disaster. Maybe we could even get a couple of decent tropical storms to wipe out the drought in South Florida and Texas.

Texas, Florida, Georgia...etc are really in need of a lot of rain
Gulf of Mexico:





Caribbean Sea:





Tropical Atlantic:



Quoting hydrus:
Good afternoon. I am waiting until late May before I hike the ball. I Hope that we come out of this hurricane season without a major disaster. Maybe we could even get a couple of decent tropical storms to wipe out the drought in South Florida and Texas.


CPC appears to rely on tropical storms for their South Florida outlook.




From Link
Aprils numbers due out tomorrow.

I wunder which way they will go on da graph thingee?

co2now.org

394.45ppm


Atmospheric CO2 for March 2012


Quoting hydrus:
Good afternoon. I am waiting until late May before I hike the ball. I Hope that we come out of this hurricane season without a major disaster. Maybe we could even get a couple of decent tropical storms to wipe out the drought in South Florida and Texas.
With all the rain we've been getting lately I thought we would be out of the drought.

Looks like this season is just setting up to be homegrown.with all the instability,warm water,and lower than average wind shear in the Gulf and Caribbean.This foreshadowing ain't even funny no more.
Quoting weatherh98:


Read up on 'global dimming'.

During the period following WWII we pumped huge amounts of pollution into the atmosphere as we engaged in a period of industrial growth and powered it with non-scrubbed coal plants.

Also read about acid rain. All that SO2 and NOx that poured out of our smokestacks both blocked sunlight and destroyed lakes and forests.

When you read about people suggesting that we shoot SO2 into our atmosphere as a form of geo-engineering to curtail planet warming what they are talking about is returning us to those glory days.

As for sunspots and global temperature, Skeptical Science has a good page on that. You might want to read it and introduce your teacher to it as well.
Quoting caribbeantracker01:


two interesting features this afternoon


Caribbean disturbance is under loads of shear...it has been generated as a stuck upper trough in the W Atlc has been producing divergence over the South American monsoon/ITCZ. But also this same upper trough is shearing it. The models shift the upper trough east and de-amplify it...so expect this activity to shift east and weaken...

The more interesting feature is the frontal boundary low moving SE from the Carolinas...which produce the strong t-storms in east North Carolina yesterday with the help of a SE-moving shortwave upper trough. It has slipped under a more favorable east-west upper ridge axis ahead of the shortwave....but this low pressure looks weak and isn't developinng that much at this time...
Quite a rapid fire up of storms here. This region is in the slight risk.

Quoting Neapolitan:
That canard is older than you are, Cat5; as has been shown to you and many others many times, the large majority of climate scientists in the 1970s--and earlier--were aware of and predicting warming, not cooling. To believe and/or repeat otherwise is revisionist wishful thinking.


Who's Cat5?
Curious about the correlations between El Nino and the Atlantic basin.

As of right now the vertical instability in the EPac is lower than normal:



Wouldn't that slow down some convection generation in the EPac thus lessen the shear in the ATL?
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
Give me the plus if you think this season would be the most amazing season to watch since 2008!
I am actually a little nervous about this season. I fear the most for gulf coast residents who are still recovering from past storms. Especially Ike.Hurricane Ike
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Hurricane Ike Category 4 hurricane (SSHS)
Hurricane Ike at peak intensity.
Formed September 1, 2008
Dissipated September 14, 2008
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
145 mph (230 km/h)
Lowest pressure 935 mbar (hPa); 27.61 inHg
Fatalities 103 direct, 92 indirect
Damage $37.6 billion (2008 USD)
(Second costliest tropical cyclone in U.S. history)
Areas affected Turks and Caicos, Bahamas, Haiti, Dominican Republic, Cuba, Florida Keys, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, Great Lakes region, eastern Canada
Part of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season

Hurricane Ike was the costliest hurricane ever to impact Cuba, the second-costliest hurricane ever to make landfall in the United States, the second most active hurricane to reach the Canadian mainland (as a tropical storm) in the Great Lakes Region after Hurricane Hazel in 1954, and the last hurricane to make landfall in the United States until Hurricane Irene in 2011. It was the ninth named storm, fifth hurricane, and third major hurricane of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season. It was a Cape Verde-type hurricane, as it started as a tropical disturbance near Africa at the end of August. On September 1, 2008, it became a tropical storm west of the Cape Verde islands. By the early morning hours of September 4, Ike was a Category 4 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph (230 km/h) and a pressure of 935 mbar (27.61 inHg).[5] That made it the most intense Atlantic storm of 2008. Ike passed over the Turks and Caicos Islands as Category 4, with winds 135 mph (215 km/h) on September 7. Moving west along Cuba, it made two landfalls – as a Category 4 hurricane on September 7 and as a Category 1 hurricane two days later. Ike made its final landfall near Galveston, Texas as a strong Category 2 hurricane, on September 13, 2008, at 2:10 am CDT. Hurricane-force winds extended 120 miles (195 km) from the center and tropical storm-force winds extended far beyond that.

Ike was blamed for at least 195 deaths. Of these, 74 were in Haiti, which was already trying to recover from the impact of three storms earlier that year: Fay, Gustav, and Hanna. In the United States, 112 people were killed, and 23 are still missing. Due to its immense size, Ike caused devastation from the Louisiana coastline all the way to the Kenedy County, Texas region near Corpus Christi, Texas. In addition, Ike caused flooding and significant damage along the Mississippi coastline and the Florida Panhandle Damages from Ike in U.S. coastal and inland areas are estimated at $29.6 billion (2008 USD), with additional damage of $7.3 billion in Cuba (the costliest storm ever in that country), $200 million in the Bahamas, and $500 million in the Turks and Caicos, amounting to a total of at least $37.6 billion in damage. Ike was the second costliest Atlantic hurricane of all time, only surpassed by Hurricane Katrina of 2005 (not adjusted for inflation; if adjusted, Ike would be the third costliest storm). It became the largest search-and-rescue operation in U.S. history. It was also resulted in millions leaving the Houston/Galveston area and other parts of Texas. However, Hurricane Rita still holds the designation as the largest U.S. evacuation in history.At one point, Ike was over 600 miles in diameter.On the morning of September 13, 2008, the eye of Hurricane Ike approached the upper Texas coast, making landfall at 2:10 am CDT over the east end of Galveston Island, with a high storm surge, and travelled north up Galveston Bay, along the east side of Houston [102] (see storm-path image). People in low-lying areas who had not heeded evacuation orders, in single-family one- or two-story homes, were warned by the weather service that they faced "certain death" from the overnight storm surge,[53] a statement that turned out to be true for some unable to evacuate.[103]

In regional Texas towns, electrical power began failing on September 12 before 8 pm CDT,[53] leaving millions without power (estimates range from 2.8 million[104] to 4.5 million[105] customers). Grocery store shelves in the Houston area were left empty for weeks in the aftermath of the storm.[106]
Flood waters begin to rise in a neighborhood of Bayou Vista, Texas.

In Galveston, by 4 pm CDT (2100 UTC) on September 12, the rising storm surge began overtopping the 17-ft (5.2 m) Galveston Seawall, which faces the Gulf of Mexico; waves had been crashing along the seawall earlier, from 9 am CDT. Although Seawall Boulevard is elevated above the shoreline, many areas of town slope down behind the seawall to the lower elevation of Galveston Island.

Even though there were advance evacuation plans, Mary Jo Naschke, spokesperson for the city of Galveston, estimated that (as of Friday morning) a quarter of the city's residents paid no attention to calls for them to evacuate, despite predictions that most of Galveston Island would suffer heavy flooding storm tide.By 6 pm Friday night, estimates varied as to how many of the 58,000 residents remained, but the figures of remaining residents were in the thousands. Widespread flooding included downtown Galveston: six ft (2 m) deep inside the Galveston County Courthouse, and the University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston was flooded.[102] 2,400 Medical Branch employees, including 120 faculty members, were laid off after Hurricane Ike devastated the university. Tourist attractions on the island suffered various degrees of damage. The Lone Star Flight Museum suffered massive damage, as the storm surge washed through the airport and hangars with about 8 feet (2.4 m) of water, and the recently completed Schlitterbahn Water Park was still closed in November 2008; however, Moody Gardens was built with storms in mind and was able to withstand the worst of the storm.Main article: Effects of Hurricane Ike in inland North America

On September 14, after Ike became extratropical and was enhanced by an upper level shortwave trough, a major wind event took place across the lower and middle Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes, and significant rainfall and flooding took place to the west. Several areas in Illinois and Indiana, already flooded by the frontal boundary to the north, saw significant additional rainfall.[122] Due to flooding in Chicago, Todd Stroger declared a state of emergency for Cook County due to flooding of the Des Plaines River. Hurricane-force wind gusts were reported to the east of the center across parts of Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania with significant wind damage including structural damage to buildings and trees. The Louisville area declared a state of emergency due to major damage, and the Louisville International Airport was closed temporarily. A LG&E spokesperson said that this was the worst power outage in 30 years.[123] Later in the day, a statewide state of emergency was declared in Kentucky by Governor Steve Beshear.[124] Cincinnati-Northern Kentucky International Airport was also temporarily shut down, and the control tower was evacuated. In Shannon County Missouri, an outdoor music festival was taking place; though a large tree fell causing a power outage and Sinking Creek was high there were no injuries reported. In Cincinnati, numerous reports of roof damage were called in to law enforcement, and on September 15, most of the schools in Hamilton County, Butler County, and Clermont County had classes cancelled because of power outages, some of which lasted seven days. Wind gusts of 75 miles per hour (121 km/h) were recorded at Columbus, which is equivalent to sustained wind levels found in a Category 1 hurricane.[125] Additionally, a state of emergency was declared in Ohio on Monday.[126] Also in Salem, Indiana, wind gusts up to 81 miles per hour (130 km/h) were recorded. In Floyds Knobs, Indiana near Louisville, Kentucky, winds were reported in excess of 70 mph. In Indiana, high winds caused more than 200,000 customers to be without power throughout the state. Wind gusts of 63 miles per hour (101 km/h) were recorded at Indianapolis International Airport. Coming to Indianapolis, on September 14, Ike also caused damages to the first-ever motorcycle Grand Prix held in Indianapolis, stopping both 125cc and MotoGP races after the two thirds of the distance, and causing the cancellation of the 250cc race.

In Arkansas, about 200,000 customers lost power as a result of the winds, the worst power loss in that state since an ice storm in 2000. In the Louisville area, over 300,000 customers were without power — the worst power outage in the utility's history. The Cincinnati metropolitan area was hard hit as well, with over 927,000 customers losing power in that region. A Duke Energy spokesperson said "We have never seen anything like this. Never. We’re talking about 90 percent of our customers without power." There were so many power outages and so few workers available Duke Energy was thinking of sending workers from their base in Charlotte, North Carolina. Many homes and business were without power for 3–7 days. In the Dayton, Ohio area 300,000 of 515,000 Dayton Power & Light Co. customers lost power at some point following severe wind storms on the afternoon of September 14, according to a company spokesperson. As of Thursday morning, September 18, 90,000 DP&L customers remained without power. Also hard hit were central Ohio (with over 350,000 customers losing power) and northeastern Ohio (with over 310,000 customers losing power), as well as Illinois (49,000), Missouri (85,000), and western Pennsylvania (with over 180,000 customers losing power). In western Kentucky, outside crews had to be brought in from as far away as Mississippi to restore power.[135] In Indiana, about 350,000 customers lost power statewide, mainly in the southern part of the state. In New York State, over 100,000 customers were reported without power.[137] In total, 50 deaths have been blamed on Ike in the inland states.
Quoting yqt1001:
Curious about the correlations between El Nino and the Atlantic basin.

As of right now the vertical instability in the EPac is lower than normal:



Wouldn't that slow down some convection generation in the EPac thus lessen the shear in the ATL?


El Nino projected to get a slight start this summer. Vertical instability you're seeing I think I too insignificant to correlate to anything larger.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm looking forward to Issac :).
Quoting EugeneTillman:


El Nino projected to get a slight start this summer. Vertical instability you're seeing I think I too insignificant to correlate to anything larger.


Ah, okay. Thanks
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm looking forward to Issac :).


I'm personally looking forward to Kirk:

Quoting WxGeekVA on December 1st 2011:

Breaking News: Cleverbot says that Florida will get hit by a major hurricane next year!!!!

Me: Will the United
States get hit by a major hurricane next year?
Cleverbot: No, the flamingos will.
Me: So Florida is going to
get hit?
Cleverbot: No, Florida is a state.
Me: I mean, is Florida going to get hit by a major hurricane next
year?
Cleverbot: Probably.
Me: How many?
Cleverbot: Me.
Me: You are a major hurricane?
Cleverbot: No
.
Me: I'm going to ask you again: Are you a major hurricane?
Cleverbot: Yes.
Me: What is your hurricane
name?
Cleverbot: Kirkland is my middle name.
Me: You will be Major Huricane Kirk, and hit Florida, right?

Cleverbot: Indeed.
I responded: I'm going to remember this. When Kirk comes,
this will be reposted. :P

Quoting yqt1001:
Curious about the correlations between El Nino and the Atlantic basin.

As of right now the vertical instability in the EPac is lower than normal:



Wouldn't that slow down some convection generation in the EPac thus lessen the shear in the ATL?

Well, despite the fact that El Niño typically enhances convective activity in the East Pacific, as Levi mentioned in his Tropical Tidbit from March 27 (here), a negative PDO could generally suppress convective activity which wouldn't shear the Atlantic as much. I think a lack of Vertical Instability would limit the peak intensities of storms more than anything, just like last year in the Atlantic.
CIMSS shows only 5 to 10 kts of shear over low pressure moving SE from Carolinas (because it has slipped under a favorable upper ridge axis)...I have become increasingly intrigued by this feature throughout the day. Anyone else see this?
If scientists pulled the alarm prematurely, then why did the media grab hold of the ice age so profusely. Why aren't why seeing the same media attention with global warming, especially since the threat are deemed more imminent and severe. It should be covered - there's much more media now than 30 years ago.
A surface trough and a low over northern South America are creating generally wet conditions in the eastern Caribbean
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
CIMSS shows only 5 to 10 kts of shear over low pressure moving SE from Carolinas (because it has slipped under a favorable upper ridge axis)...I have become increasingly intrigued by this feature throughout the day. Anyone else see this?

What's up NCH2009?
My numbers for the 2012 North Atlantic Hurricane season are 12/7/3. When will a poll of the numbers be up here?
Side note: This year will mark the 6th time the name Alberto has been used. Arlene still holds the record for the name used the most.

*Click on the pictures for more info on the storms*

Hurricane Alberto (1982)


TS Alberto (1988)


TS Alberto (1994)


Hurricane Alberto (2000)
*Holds the record for the longest loop completed by a storm*


Finally,
TS Alberto (2006)
Ypt1001 I think this list has some pretty interesting names on it.It's just that "I" storms have been on the roll lately and causing the most trouble.In just 4 of the last three years the "I" storm had been retired.

Wow 3 out of the last 4 Alberto's have hit Florida.Florida better watch out for Alberto this year.they need the rain anyway...
Quoting cyclonekid:
Side note: This year will mark the 6th time the name Alberto has been used. Arlene still holds the record for the name used the most.

*Click on the pictures for more info on the storms*

Hurricane Alberto (1982)


TS Alberto (1988)


TS Alberto (1994)


Hurricane Alberto (2000)
*Holds the record for the longest loop completed by a storm*


Finally,
TS Alberto (2006)
I remember all the Alberto,s. We were supposed to get whacked with the first one and it weakened at the last minute. Even had Hurricane Warnings up.!
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
My numbers for the 2012 North Atlantic Hurricane season are 12/7/3. When will a poll of the numbers be up here?

What's TWpr? Good numbers...last year the eastern pacific had 11 storms, 10 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes, so we should always be prepared. There was a plane crash near St Maarten today that killed a cardiac patient and the medics
Link


Behold THE CHART

A friendly reminder
Quoting nigel20:

What's up NCH2009?


Not much...have just begun paying very close attention to low pressure SE of the Carolinas. From what I can see in the model runs...it is possible favorable upper winds remain in the area until this Wednesday April 9 (when the upper trough over the W US comes in and dramatically shears the area). Anyone else agree/disagree?
Interesting feature around 32N/74W
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Not much...have just begun paying very close attention to low pressure SE of the Carolinas. From what I can see in the model runs...it is possible favorable upper winds remain in the area until this Wednesday April 9 (when the upper trough over the W US comes in and dramatically shears the area). Anyone else agree/disagree?

We are at a time of the year, where we have to watch these disturbances
Quoting nigel20:

We are at a time of the year, where we have to watch these disturbances

The system reminds me of the Mesocyclone(93L) last year around the end of may
window 7 will be my last OS am going too stay with window 7 has long has i can


Link
Ping Pong ball sized hail with these storms...

Quoting HurricaneDean07:

The system reminds me of the Mesocyclone(93L) last year around the end of may

Yes...my thoughts exactly....

Quoting stormpetrol:
Interesting feature around 32N/74W

100% Agree!

Quoting nigel20:

We are at a time of the year, where we have to watch these disturbances

Well its still a bit early for something like this...and I meant to say in post 163 "Wednesday May 9" instead of April 9.
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
Levi - can tropical storm hit Africa? I mean a Fred'09-like situation.


I'm not sure I understand since Fred didn't hit Africa. It is possible for tropical storms to brush the African coastline, though it is rare. If you count the Cape Verde Islands, there are many instances of tropical storm conditions being inflicted there.

Quoting Grothar:


Levi, one thing has always confused me. What is the difference between an anomalous reading and a current one? In this link, it would appear the Gulf and the Gulfstream have warmed back up considerably.

Link


Right, and they are warming, because it is springtime. However, relative to normal temperatures for this time of year, they have been generally cooling for the last month or so. That's all I mean by "anomalous."
Levi, I think he means a tropical cyclone turning back and actually making landfall along the African coast as a major system.
Small area of convection near the circulation center of feature near 32N 74W. If more development continues...I will be writing a tropical update. If it continues status quo...I won't....
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Levi, I think he means a tropical cyclone turning back and actually making landfall along the African coast as a major system.

I've never seen an occurence of that nature, and i dont think it ever actually has with a 'major system'
Quoting washingtonian115:
Ypt1001 I think this list has some pretty interesting names on it.It's just that "I" storms have been on the roll lately and causing the most trouble.In just 4 of the last three years the "I" storm had been retired.

Wow 3 out of the last 4 Alberto's have hit Florida.Florida better watch out for Alberto this year.they need the rain anyway...


Isaac to me sounds like a very nasty hurricane.
Quoting Tazmanian:
window 7 will be my last OS am going too stay with window 7 has long has i can


Link

You don't like the upcoming windows 8 upgrade?
If anyone cares; the French socialist party won the election today.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
204 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BUREAU COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT.

* AT 202 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR WYANET...OR 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF PRINCETON...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WYANET AROUND 205 PM CDT...
8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KASBEER AROUND 210 PM CDT...
PRINCETON AROUND 220 PM CDT...
PRINCETON AND DOVER AROUND 225 PM CDT...
COAL HOLLOW...MALDEN AND 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ZEARING AROUND 230 PM
CDT...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 IN ILLINOIS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 46 AND
63.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE IN A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM
OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

&&

LAT...LON 4146 8929 4128 8942 4138 8968 4154 8956
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 297DEG 16KT 4141 8957

$$
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Good map. Good points.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Comparing with 2009.


What stands out to me in 2009 that is different than 2012.

*EPAC is warmer, especially 15N - 20N.
*Gulf of Guiena is much cooler in 2012 than 2009.
*Trade winds where much higher this time 2009 over the Atlantic.
*NAO is different.
*Temperatures where much cooler in the Caribbean & GOMEX.

Why they choose 2009 as a analog year is beyond me, but the only thing similar to me is that there's a developing El Nino.
Tropical Storm Risk released their prediction update for the 2012 Northwest Pacific Typhoon Season two days ago on May 4, and the organization is continuing to call for a near-average season with 26 tropical storms, 16 typhoons, 9 intense typhoons, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 300.

The season has already had 5 tropical depressions, 1 tropical storm, and 8 fatalities.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Comparing with 2009.


What stands out to me in 2009 that is different than 2012.

*EPAC is warmer, especially 15N - 20N.
*Gulf of Guiena is much cooler in 2012 than 2009.
*Trade winds where much higher this time 2009 over the Atlantic.
*NAO is different.
*Temperatures where much cooler in the Caribbean & GOMEX.

Why they choose 2009 as a analog year is beyond me, but the only thing similar to me is that there's a developing El Nino.

Yeah, very different from 2012 a you stated above
Quoting nigel20:

You don't like the upcoming windows 8 upgrade?
Not him but I have heard Windows 8 is terrible. They are saying it is as bad as Vista. For some reason Windows 8 is focused on touch based platforms. So if you own a keyboard and mouse like most people it will not be enjoyable.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Considering the fact that the itcz will be farther north, One would think the storms would move further north, but because of the cool equatorial waters, the storms are more likely form in the Caribbean and move up towards the continental United States.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Not him but I have heard Windows 8 is terrible. They are saying it is as bad as Vista. For some reason Windows 8 is focused on touch based platforms. So if you own a keyboard and mouse like most people it will not be enjoyable.

I guess they are trying to counter google's android os and apple's ios, but from what your are saying, it doesn't seems to be working
When does the propaganda stop? This guy is well past embarrassing.
Good Afternoon. Down/Up here North of Tallahassee waiting on the line of T-Storms, drifting down from Alabama and South Central Georgia to cross the border into North Florida. While we might get a few T-storms reaching severe limits (due to peak daytime heating combined with the onshore sea breeze as the storms approach the Coastal Gulf areas), no discussion regarding any tornado threats and we need the rain.

I will keep Yall posted later on today if I observe any real severe weather in this area.
188. MahFL
Quoting yqt1001:
If anyone cares; the French socialist party won the election today.


Good riddance to the prat Sarkosy.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Afternoon. Down/Up here North of Tallahassee waiting on the line of T-Storms, drifting down from Alabama and South Central Georgia to cross the border into North Florida. While we might get a few T-storms reaching severe limits (due to peak daytime heating combined with the onshore sea breeze as the storms approach the Coastal Gulf areas), no discussion regarding any tornado threats and we need the rain.

I will keep Yall posted later on today if I observe any real severe weather in this area.

Good afternoon wannabe
Quoting nigel20:

Good afternoon wannabe


Hey. Last time a front came through (2 weeks ago) a lightening strike near the house caused a power surge that affected the TV and Internet (Computer Ethernet Card got fried) so I am going to "unplug" everything in the next hour or so when the storms come rolling through......That is why I will not be Blogging during the storms........... :)
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Hey. Last time a front came through (2 weeks ago) a lightening strike near the house caused a power surge that affected the TV and Internet (Computer Ethernet Card got fried) so I am going to "unplug" everything in the next hour or so when the storms come rolling through......That is why I will not be Blogging during the storms........... :)

Yeah, be safe
Interesting outflow boundary from the storms in se la
..you gotta right,

..to fight,

for da plannnnnnnnnn-et !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Does anyone know the factors that are involved in Florida's thunderstorm season? Like what needs to be in place that isn't? I honestly can't find much details on it.
Quoting MahFL:


Good riddance to the prat Sarkosy.


Soon their government will be broke, after all the social reforms are done.
Someone better splain...Lucy.

cuz we've heard for years now of this mysterious Fla. rainy season, but alas..

..where it go, bro?
Eastern East Pacific
Quoting yqt1001:
If anyone cares; the French socialist party won the election today.

Nobody cares!
Not even us in Europe.
Maybe somebody cares in France but we don't have any contact with them!
Quoting PlazaRed:

Nobody cares!
Not even us in Europe.
Maybe somebody cares in France but we don't have any contact with them!

Not to mention the President of France is unlikely to have much influence on the weather.
153 EugeneTillman: If scientists pulled the alarm prematurely, then why did the media grab hold of the ice age so profusely. Why aren't why seeing the same media attention with global warming, especially since the threat are deemed more imminent and severe. It should be covered - there's much more media now than 30 years ago.

Are you even capable of forming an earnest*sentence? Scientists did not pull the alarm.
As for too much of the media... for the same reason that they pushed "nuclear Iraq", and that they have labeled Survivor, Snooki, Kardashian, etc with the tag of 'reality shows'. For the uneducated marketers as "news executives" and for many of the uneducated journalism majors as by-line/on-air "reporters", reality doesn't have any STAR power. And fame is the name of the game.
Hence the coverage of "elections as horse races", and of denialists "contesting" GlobalWarming as if they were being serious rather than silly... maliciously silly, but silly nonetheless.

* ie A sentence that you think is honest.
Quoting Birthmark:

Not to mention the President of France is unlikely to have much influence on the weather.

I don't think they have much influence on anything!
We were trying to compile a list of French military successes the other day but gave up after a while without having found one.
They will probably re introduce boarder passport controls soon in Europe! Can you imagine passport controls at State boarders in the US?
We haven't seen a photo of the wife of the new president yet,! She might not be a model?
Logan's run the movie is coming to earth via global warming garbage spread by those in power in science and government.Utopia is coming through false fear spread by lies!If you disagree even with facts the power and money in the media ,etc will silence you or you will be exterminated!History repeats itself as does weather,what has happened before will happen again.Nothing is new under the sun!Only answer too the world's problems is Jesus Christ!!!Imagine Germany in world war two only now their will be a world government with all the power.Life for the elite but death and meager living for the unbelievers!!True Utopia on earth and absolute power!!Lord come soon!!
Evening Everybody! I pinched this from the blog heading:-
"On Saturday, May 5, the activist group 350.org, founded by Bill McKibben, launched a new effort to "connect the dots between climate change and extreme weather."
Well I supose I better stick my oar into newly melted waters!
Climate change is whats happening.
Extreme weather is whats going to happen!
The extreme weather that has happened so far is a mere transition to the extreme weather that's going to come next.A sort of aperitif. ( a bit like the past French president WAS,)
You put up the CO2 to 400PPM, you increase the temps buy 2/C and you get an extra 8% moisture content in the atmosphere, plus you get an awful lot of nasty interesting side effects:-
Sea level rise, increased storms, ice melting in a big way all over the place, permafrost melting, methane release increase, stronger storms, droughts, floods and of course lack of ice at the north pole, hence, lack of polar bears, all good news if you are normally a species that is a prey of polar bears. For the rest of us non polar bear preys; interesting times are a coming!
I read that the Norwegians are going to be doing oil drilling in the Arctic for the Russians, They get 33% of the profits, I hear!
What next? Arctic shoreline holidays on currently oil spill free beaches? Aurora Bathi-all-is
Quoting Levi32:
It's worth noting that the GFS has shown a 384-hour storm in either the Caribbean or eastern Pacific every day for the past 3 weeks. I called it an early-season quirk at the time because the GFS likes to march the MJO into phases 8 and 1 too fast early in the season. If it shows something at 384 hours now, chances are it will occur later than that, if it occurs.

The UKMET is now onboard with the GFS's timing of the MJO getting into the eastern Pacific and the Caribbean, but the JMA and ECMWF are still slow to bring it out. That is, the pattern should eventually favor tropical/monsoonal stirrings in this area of the world near the latter portion of May and early June, but until the GFS starts showing a consistent time period for activity in the area, its time table can't be trusted.




Hi Levi

What is your take on the GW debate?
Intensifying hook. Tornado Warnings up.

158 washingtonian115: Wow 3 out of the last 4 Alberto's have hit Florida. Florida better watch out for Alberto this year. They need the rain anyway...

Thus far Albertos have been known as rainmakers, not home breakers. With only a small bit of luck, Alberto will remain known for its gentleness (comparatively).
Quoting aspectre:
153 EugeneTillman: If scientists pulled the alarm prematurely, then why did the media grab hold of the ice age so profusely. Why aren't why seeing the same media attention with global warming, especially since the threat are deemed more imminent and severe. It should be covered - there's much more media now than 30 years ago.

Are you even capable of forming an earnest*sentence? Scientists did not pull the alarm.
As for too much of the media... for the same reason that they pushed "nuclear Iraq", and that they have labeled Survivor, Snooki, Kardashian, etc with the tag of 'reality shows'. For the uneducated marketers as "news executives" and for many of the uneducated journalism majors as by-line/on-air "reporters", reality doesn't have any STAR power. And fame is the name of the game.
Hence the coverage of "elections as horse races", and of denialists "contesting" GlobalWarming as if they were being serious rather than silly... maliciously silly, but silly nonetheless.

* ie A sentence that you think is honest.


Why?

When will the majority of scientists get on board with this dangerous AGW issue and relay the message to the media? I mean, it's important, right?
Fresh ASCAT pass on the sheared, little blob east of South Carolina.

Skye, low latitude 99W is upgraded by JTWC to Medium.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.8N
132.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.7N 132.1E, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BUILDING,
YET FRAGMENTED, DEEP CONVECTION. A 061541Z OSCAT PASS INDICATES 15-
20 KNOT NORTHWESTERLIES OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. A
061656Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS VERY BROAD TURING AND SCATTERED DEEP
CONVECTION WEST OF THE LLCC. SHIP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS A FEW
DEGREES TO THE WEST SUGGEST A PRESSURE OF 1007 MB AND WINDS ON
AVERAGE 12-17 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC TO BE
UNDER AN EXTENSION OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WEAK (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
LOCATED NORTH OF THE LLCC WHICH IS IMPEDING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW;
HOWEVER, EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. ANIMATED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW CONVERGENCE BUT THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS TO THE EAST
STREAMING IN ON THE TRADES IS SLOWLY BUT SURELY THINNING OUT THE
DRY AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
The public has confirmed a tornado on the eastern tornado warned storm.



Meanwhile, on the western storm...

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON
AND SOUTH CENTRAL LA SALLE COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 351 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. TRAINED WEATHER
SPOTTERS REPORTED A RAIN WRAPPED FUNNEL CLOUD WITH THIS STORM 6
MILES EAST OF WENONA AT 350 PM CDT...WITH 60 MPH STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
ALSO OBSERVED. THIS TORNADIC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED EAST
WENONA...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF STREATOR...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
STREATOR AROUND 420 PM CDT.
Invest 94S:

Stop liking my posts and post already! lol

New Severe Thunderstorm Watch:



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 259
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN KANSAS
NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF KANSAS CITY MISSOURI TO 70 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
EMPORIA KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 257...WW 258...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS COLD
FRONT CONTINUES SEWD AND INTERACTS WITH A MODERATE-STRONGLY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS. THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN WITHIN
POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MULTICELLS LIKELY BEING THE PREFERRED
STORM MODE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26020.


...MEAD
213:

Fine. 18Z NAM showing decent CAPE values for our warned areas...

click to enlarge
Those are strong cells for sure.
Dewpoints in the region support isolated severe weather...
WTXS21 PGTW 061730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 170 NM RADIUS OF 5.4S 127.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 061700Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.4S 127.1E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.5S
126.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4S 127.1E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS HAS SHOWN THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TRANSITION FROM BEING FULLY-EXPOSED INTO
MORE RECENT CENTRAL CLOUD COVER FROM BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 061239Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES 30 KNOT WINDS
OVER THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT, APPROXIMATELY 25 NM FROM THE
LLCC. ADDITIONALLY, STRONG (30-40 KNOT) SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM SEVERAL
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE LLCC CAN BE SEEN FEEDING INTO THE CIRCULATION.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC TO BE APPROXIMATELY 13
DEGREES WEST OF A POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE AND 7 DEGREES
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. IT SEEMS THAT THE LLCC
HAS INCREASED ITS DISTANCE FROM THE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), WHICH HAS BEEN PROVIDED BY THE POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE
LOCATED TO THE EAST, OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THUS, VWS HAS SLIGHTLY
RELAXED ALLOWING FOR THE BANDING TO REFORM OVER THE LLCC. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BUT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW REMAINS SUBDUED AND MOSTLY STRAIGHT-LINE TO THE WEST. EARLY
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GENERALLY POLEWARD TRACK IN A
SOUTHWESTWARDS DIRECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25-30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO THE RECENT DECREASE IN VWS, GENERAL TRACK
MOTION INTO CONTINUED WEAK VWS, AND CONSOLIDATION OF BANDING, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
071730Z.//
NNNN

ALERT ATCF MIL 94X XXX 120506120000
2012050612
-5.4 127.1
-999.9-999.9
170
-5.4 127.1
061730
1205061721
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTXS21 PGTW 061730
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 170 NM RADIUS OF 5.4S 127.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 061700Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.4S 127.1E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 071730Z.
//
NNNN

TXXS24 KNES 061831
TCSSIO

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94S)

B. 06/1801Z

C. 5.8S

D. 127.1E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...94S HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST SIX HRS. RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A LLCC MAY BE FORMING BENEATH THE DEEP
CONVECTION. 7/10 W BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. MET = 2.5. PT = 2.5. FT
IS BASED ON TRADITIONAL DVORAK CONSTRAINTS LIMITING CHANGE IN FT BY 0.5
IN 6 HRS FOR WEAKER SYSTEMS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GUILLOT
A heavy rain event looks to be in order across much of the East Coast Wednesday as a strong cold front triggers widespread convection from Florida to Maine. In addition, parameters will be there for isolated embedded severe thunderstorms, especially across North Carolina and Virginia.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ALERT ATCF MIL 94X XXX 120506120000
2012050612
-5.4 127.1
-999.9-999.9
170
-5.4 127.1
061730
1205061721
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTXS21 PGTW 061730
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 170 NM RADIUS OF 5.4S 127.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 061700Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.4S 127.1E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 071730Z.
//
NNNN



Keeper,here is the more detailed discussion of the TCFA for 94S:

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 170 NM RADIUS OF 5.4S 127.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 061700Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.4S 127.1E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.5S
126.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4S 127.1E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS HAS SHOWN THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TRANSITION FROM BEING FULLY-EXPOSED INTO
MORE RECENT CENTRAL CLOUD COVER FROM BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 061239Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES 30 KNOT WINDS
OVER THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT, APPROXIMATELY 25 NM FROM THE
LLCC. ADDITIONALLY, STRONG (30-40 KNOT) SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM SEVERAL
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE LLCC CAN BE SEEN FEEDING INTO THE CIRCULATION.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC TO BE APPROXIMATELY 13
DEGREES WEST OF A POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE AND 7 DEGREES
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. IT SEEMS THAT THE LLCC
HAS INCREASED ITS DISTANCE FROM THE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), WHICH HAS BEEN PROVIDED BY THE POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE
LOCATED TO THE EAST, OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THUS, VWS HAS SLIGHTLY
RELAXED ALLOWING FOR THE BANDING TO REFORM OVER THE LLCC. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BUT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW REMAINS SUBDUED AND MOSTLY STRAIGHT-LINE TO THE WEST. EARLY
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GENERALLY POLEWARD TRACK IN A
SOUTHWESTWARDS DIRECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25-30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO THE RECENT DECREASE IN VWS, GENERAL TRACK
MOTION INTO CONTINUED WEAK VWS, AND CONSOLIDATION OF BANDING, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
Quoting owenowen:
When does the propaganda stop? This guy is well past embarrassing.


The Liberals are pouring it down our throats and will continue to do so.
I'm looking through a hole in the sky
I'm seeing nowhere through the eyes of a lie
I'm getting closer to the end of the line
I'm living easy where the sun doesn't shine

I'm living in a room without any view
I'm living free because the rent's never due
The synonym of all the things that I've said
Are just the riddles that are built in my head

Hole in the sky
Gateway to heaven
Window in time
Through it I fly

I've seen the stars that disappear in the sun
But shooting's easy if you've got the right gun
And even though I'm sitting waiting for Mars
I don't believe there's any future in cars

Hole in the sky
Gateway to heaven
Window in time
Through it I fly

I've watched the dogs of war enjoying their feast
I've seen the western world go down in the east
The food of love became the greed of our time
But now I'm living on the profits of crime


ha-hahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh...........
Quoting jrweatherman:


The Liberals are pouring it down our throats and will continue to do so.

You appear to have typed "Liberals" when you meant "Nature." Just thought I'd point that out.

Uploaded by: Marta4 — Thursday April 19, 2012 — Marseille, France


Welcome to Weather Underground's World View! A weekly pictorial review of weather around the globe submitted by the WunderPhoto community.

The heart is a bloom
Shoots up through the stony ground
There's no room
No space to rent in this town

You're out of luck
And the reason that you had to care
The traffic is stuck
And you're not moving anywhere

You thought you'd found a friend
To take you out of this place
Someone you could lend a hand
In return for grace

It's a beautiful day
Sky falls, you feel like
It's a beautiful day
Don't let it get away

You're on the road
But you've got no destination
You're in the mud
In the maze of her imagination

You love this town
Even if that doesn't ring true
You've been all over
And it's been all over you

It's a beautiful day
Don't let it get away
It's a beautiful day

Touch me
Take me to that other place
Teach me
I know I'm not a hopeless case

See the world in green and blue
See China right in front of you
See the canyons broken by cloud
See the tuna fleets clearing the sea out
See the Bedouin fires at night
See the oil fields at first light
And see the bird with a leaf in her mouth
After the flood all the colors came out

It was a beautiful day
Don't let it get away
Beautiful day

Touch me
Take me to that other place
Reach me
I know I'm not a hopeless case

What you don't have you don't need it now
What you don't know you can feel it somehow
What you don't have you don't need it now
Don't need it now
Was a beautiful day
agree ,a spin from the passage of the front ,trough,  is one to watch
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Not much...have just begun paying very close attention to low pressure SE of the Carolinas. From what I can see in the model runs...it is possible favorable upper winds remain in the area until this Wednesday April 9 (when the upper trough over the W US comes in and dramatically shears the area). Anyone else agree/disagree?

Diageo, one of the world's largest drinks companies, has announced it will no longer fund the Heartland Institute, a rightwing US thinktank which briefly ran a billboard campaign this week comparing people concerned about climate change to mass murderers and terrorists such as Osama bin Laden, Charles Manson and Ted Kaczynski.

They follow General Motors & AT&T who are now distancing themselves from Heartland. Sign the petition here urging the other corporations to do the same.
Quoting Birthmark:

You appear to have typed "Liberals" when you meant "Nature." Just thought I'd point that out.


By By JR.
164 stormpetrol: Interesting feature around 32N/74W

Did you know that if you google 32N/74W , you get an answer of 0.432432432 seconds per metre?

JAX is Jacksonville,Florida and MEO is RoanoakeIsland,NorthCarolina
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Keeper,here is the more detailed discussion of the TCFA for 94S:

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 170 NM RADIUS OF 5.4S 127.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 061700Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.4S 127.1E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.5S
126.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4S 127.1E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS HAS SHOWN THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TRANSITION FROM BEING FULLY-EXPOSED INTO
MORE RECENT CENTRAL CLOUD COVER FROM BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 061239Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES 30 KNOT WINDS
OVER THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT, APPROXIMATELY 25 NM FROM THE
LLCC. ADDITIONALLY, STRONG (30-40 KNOT) SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM SEVERAL
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE LLCC CAN BE SEEN FEEDING INTO THE CIRCULATION.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC TO BE APPROXIMATELY 13
DEGREES WEST OF A POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE AND 7 DEGREES
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. IT SEEMS THAT THE LLCC
HAS INCREASED ITS DISTANCE FROM THE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), WHICH HAS BEEN PROVIDED BY THE POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE
LOCATED TO THE EAST, OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THUS, VWS HAS SLIGHTLY
RELAXED ALLOWING FOR THE BANDING TO REFORM OVER THE LLCC. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BUT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW REMAINS SUBDUED AND MOSTLY STRAIGHT-LINE TO THE WEST. EARLY
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GENERALLY POLEWARD TRACK IN A
SOUTHWESTWARDS DIRECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25-30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO THE RECENT DECREASE IN VWS, GENERAL TRACK
MOTION INTO CONTINUED WEAK VWS, AND CONSOLIDATION OF BANDING, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
i posted this at spot 217 before the less detail one
Quoting akailm:
agree ,a spin from the passage of the front ,trough,  is one to watch



I posted the ASCAT of that a little bit ago. Broad but looked a little more spun up than depicted on the models.
Temps went from nearly 90 to 73 and it didn't even rain!! Good old rain cooled air!!
Meanwhile--
Google "Mitch Dobrowner photos" and check the winning images in the Sony photo competition.
Spectacular shots of Texas Twisters...
Sweet spot of low shear there..
Well the dullness continues:-
Maybe we'll get 5 years of flat calm?

France presidential election 2012

@rupertmurdoch tweeted: So Hollande wins in France, promises "new Europe". We'll see. Meanwhile Le Pen prepares for leadership of Right. Not pretty prospect.

Greece is undecided on it elections, they all want to form one big party! Which is probably what caused their financial problems in the first place and Germany has yet to come to terms with reality as they used to know it!
so much for Europe's 3 Elections in one day.

Now then back to 'That blob,!



Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i posted this at spot 217 before the less detail one


Oops,that happens when I dont look back lol.
Models pretty much close the little swirl off South Carolina off briefly as a weak low. Now is going on peak for most of them. The they beat it down to the SE with a building high, some have it hang til the next front, others shunt it farther east.
Quoting aspectre:
158 washingtonian115: Wow 3 out of the last 4 Alberto's have hit Florida. Florida better watch out for Alberto this year. They need the rain anyway...

Thus far Albertos have been known as rainmakers, not home breakers. With only a small bit of luck, Alberto will remain known for its gentleness (comparatively).
With all the drought going on in Florida they could use a system like Fay.Especially in northern Florida near where the Georgia boarder is.
Click for text
Quoting Skyepony:
Diageo, one of the world's largest drinks companies, has announced it will no longer fund the Heartland Institute, a rightwing US thinktank which briefly ran a billboard campaign this week comparing people concerned about climate change to mass murderers and terrorists such as Osama bin Laden, Charles Manson and Ted Kaczynski.

They follow General Motors & AT&T who are now distancing themselves from Heartland. Sign the petition here urging the other corporations to do the same.
it is finished for them they stepped over the line i wunder how the big conference will go now on the 21st of may in the windy city
Our WUnderMoonies didn't disappoint bringing pictures of last night's Super Moon event.
Quoting EugeneTillman:


Why?

When will the majority of scientists get on board with this dangerous AGW issue and relay the message to the media? I mean, it's important, right?


Link

I found a couple thousand!

I'm trying not to be provocative but you need to reconsider the media sources you listen to.
Taken by my step-dad in Auburndale...

Jiddu Krishnamurti On What Can We Do In This World

First of all,..
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it is finished for them they stepped over the line i wunder how the big conference will go now on the 21st of may in the windy city


It will be interesting..I'm seeing quotes from companies & even people that were suppose to speak that are backing out...this opposes Anthony Watts saying something like this is justified as the situation is so desperate.

How radioactive has Heartland become? Consider one invited speaker to their forthcoming conference, Donna Laframboise, a Canadian climate denier who has spent the last several months launching an absurd attack on the IPCC [see Fox Scraping the Barrel for Attacks on UN Climate Panel (or, You Have Got To Be F*!$*%@&! Kidding Me)]. She just published a piece, “Why I Won’t Be Speaking at the Heartland Conference,” writing:

Instead, those of us who had accepted Heartland’s invitation to take part in its conference found ourselves blindsided – a mere two weeks before the conference is set to begin – by a torrent of negative press. Suddenly, we were all publicly linked to an organization that thinks it’s OK to equate people concerned about climate change with psychopaths.

As economist Ross McKitrick said in an a strongly-worded letter to Heartland yesterday:

You cannot simultaneously say that you want to promote a debate while equating the other side to terrorists and mass murderers.

Indeed….
Well here’s the problem. My name – and the name of my book – is currently on the same page of the Heartland website where the above quote appears. Without prior knowledge or informed consent, my work has been aggressively associated with this odious ad campaign.
Forget disappointment. In my view, my reputation has been harmed. And the Heartland thinks it has nothing to apologize for.

And this from a woman so far out of the mainstream that, in the same piece, she compares the work of the distinguished Nobel-prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to that of a ”pathological liar.”
Yes, Heartland’s hate speech, which they apparently still stand by, is so far beyond the pale that it harms the reputation of an extremist like Laframboise.
As Climate Central put it: “Heartland Institute Jumps the Shark.”
Finally, the Washington Post‘s Greg Sargent reported:

Congressman Sensenbrenner will not participate in the upcoming Climate Change Conference if the Heartland Institute decides to continue this ad campaign. We have contacted the Heartland Institute and voiced these same concerns to them.
Here we go:- News report.

LIMA, Peru (AP) -- Peru's Health Ministry is urging people to stay away from Pacific beaches from Lima northward after recent large-scale deaths of pelicans and dolphins.

Neither the Health Ministry nor Peru's oceanographic institute has determined the cause of the deaths, and there is no indication the deaths of the birds and the mammals are related.

And Saturday's warning did not indicate why it might be dangerous to visit beaches. Peru's agricultural safety service ruled out Friday that the pelicans could have died of avian flu, which could be contagious to humans.

An adventurous theory I would say points to a nuclear sub having lost the plot and let loose a lot of radiation.
Hundreds of dolphins dead plus all sorts of other nasties.

Here's the link if you want to have a dig at it?

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/L/LT_PERU_PE LICAN_DEATHS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT &CTIME=2012-05-06-16-20-49
Quoting jonger1150:
This website is quickly becoming a joke.

500 year hurricane in NY? How the heck do you know what happened beyond 100 years ago in regard to hurricanes... No satellite or radar.


The website is fine. Extreme events leave a record of their passing. Heavy flooding events, for example, leave a sedimentary record of their passing. Materials from distant regions (sediments, life forms, etc.) leave a tell-tale marker and when compared to other samples from the same area can yield insight into how severe and extensive the flooding was. Using that information along with other data from both present and past it is possible to determine the statistics of certain events over time.

I would suggest you try to make an effort to learn about a topic before dismissing it.
I can't wait for hurricane season! We will stop arguing haha! Right now blobs will do!
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
526 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

MOC037-062245-
/O.CON.KEAX.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120506T2245Z/
CASS MO-
526 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL CASS COUNTY
UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 524 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR 195THA ND OLD
SCHOOL ROAD NEAR RAYMORE...AND MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...SIGNIFICANT HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE POSSIBLE. MOBILE HOMES
COMPLETELY DESTROYED IF HIT. SOME TREES UPROOTED OR SNAPPED.
VEHICLES WILL LIKELY BE THROWN BY TORNADIC WINDS.

IN ADDITION AT 515 PM...A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EMPLOYEE REPORTED
A TORNADO NEAR RAYMORE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RAYMORE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. TAKE COVER IN A
BASEMENT OR STORM SHELTER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3882 9445 3875 9440 3874 9450 3877 9451
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 250DEG 5KT 3876 9447

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.75IN

$$

DEROCHE

Quoting Xyrus2000:


The website is fine. Extreme events leave a record of their passing. Heavy flooding events, for example, leave a sedimentary record of their passing. Materials from distant regions (sediments, life forms, etc.) leave a tell-tale marker and when compared to other samples from the same area can yield insight into how severe and extensive the flooding was. Using that information along with other data from both present and past it is possible to determine the statistics of certain events over time.

I would suggest you try to make an effort to learn about a topic before dismissing it.
You know when they cut down a tree they can use the rings inside the bark to tell a story about what the tree has been through.
Quoting PlazaRed:
Here we go:- News report.

LIMA, Peru (AP) -- Peru's Health Ministry is urging people to stay away from Pacific beaches from Lima northward after recent large-scale deaths of pelicans and dolphins.

Neither the Health Ministry nor Peru's oceanographic institute has determined the cause of the deaths, and there is no indication the deaths of the birds and the mammals are related.

And Saturday's warning did not indicate why it might be dangerous to visit beaches. Peru's agricultural safety service ruled out Friday that the pelicans could have died of avian flu, which could be contagious to humans.

An adventurous theory I would say points to a nuclear sub having lost the plot and let loose a lot of radiation.
Hundreds of dolphins dead plus all sorts of other nasties.

Here's the link if you want to have a dig at it?

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/L/LT_PERU_PE LICAN_DEATHS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE =DEFAULT &CTIME=2012-05-06-16-20-49


these occurences have been happening for awhile now since the blackbirds fell from the sky after midnight jan 1 2011 and just like then and now we still not know why

94S:

Quoting washingtonian115:
You know when they cut down a tree they can use the rings inside the bark to tell a story about what the tree has been through.

What on Earth have you done to your splendid avatars? Is this some kind of Protest?

The only problem with the tree cutting down scenario is that the tree ceased to be.

Those bristle cone pines have some stories to tell over the 5000+ years that they have been absorbing carbon?

In reality debris is what tells the story of floods and tsunamis, after all not a lot of people survived really big disasters and most of them had no way to convey their experiences as writing has nor been generally around for a long time in "rural," areas!
Quoting EugeneTillman:



In the 1970, scientists were telling us the next ice age is upon us. How did that one turn out?


No, they weren't.

Link

Link

Link
Something happened to the live cameras at Fukushima..
Wow Skypony looks like a melted art form, beautiful but probably not a good sign.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


these occurences have been happening for awhile now since the blackbirds fell from the sky after midnight jan 1 2011 and just like then and now we still not know why


I can sort of come to terms with Blackbirds falling even though I have not any explanation but when you get to higher mammal life forms like Dolphins which are similar to humans then it needs a "Probe."
If its not poison, or radiation then, what? Its not murder as there is no evidence of weapons use; its not natural as it localised and not spread over a wide area!
Somebody mentioned those Harp devices but they might be living in cloud cuckoo land? Maybe Not!
Quoting PlazaRed:

What on Earth have you done to your splendid avatars? Is this some kind of Protest?

The only problem with the tree cutting down scenario is that the tree ceased to be.

Those bristle cone pines have some stories to tell over the 5000+ years that they have been absorbing carbon?

In reality debris is what tells the story of floods and tsunamis, after all not a lot of people survived really big disasters and most of them had no way to convey their experiences as writing has nor been generally around for a long time in "rural," areas!
Well I've been trying to upload another picture but wunderground's stupid location thing isn't popping up.
75-years ago today...

The 12z GFS had a hurricane in the East Pac late in its run... The 18z run showed the same storm just a little weaker, maybe a strong TS
Quoting PlazaRed:

I can sort of come to terms with Blackbirds falling even though I have not any explanation but when you get to higher mammal life forms like Dolphins which are similar to humans then it needs a "Probe."
If its not poison, or radiation then, what? Its not murder as there is no evidence of weapons use; its not natural as it localised and not spread over a wide area!
Somebody mentioned those Harp devices but they might be living in cloud cuckoo land? Maybe Not!


This has been suggested as a possible explanation.

Link
Quoting Skyepony:
Something happened to the live cameras at Fukushima..

Don't Panic!!
Lets look at this logically?
Has there been another damaging earthquake?
Has there been some sort of power cut to the camera?
Has there been a technical problem with the transmission?
Has there been a catastrophic explosion?
Is it all a put up job?
As the last Japanese reactor providing electricity to the country was shut down today, apparently for maintenance. Or possibly prevention of future earthquake damage in the opinion of some!
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
94S:


Good evening all.....what's the forecast for one 94S? I'm feeling weak because have the Flu...i can't tell when was the last time that I had the Flu
Quoting PedleyCA:


This has been suggested as a possible explanation.

Link

Given a choice, I'd go for either radiation or sonic disruption!
Quoting PlazaRed:

Given a choice, I'd go for either radiation or sonic disruption!


Well this could qualify as the later of those. How ya doing Red?
Quoting wilsongti45:


Link

I found a couple thousand!

I'm trying not to be provocative but you need to reconsider the media sources you listen to.


I said media sources, not what you linked.
Quoting PedleyCA:


Well this could qualify as the later of those. How ya doing Red?

What's up pedley?
There's a (now rope) tornado on the ground in Olathe, Kansas--that is, in the southwest corner of the KC metro area.
Quoting nigel20:

What's up pedley?


Just hanging in there waiting for something to happen.
Quoting Neapolitan:
There's a (now rope) tornado on the ground in Olathe, Kansas--that is, in the southwest corner of the KC metro area.


You sure it's not a wedge?
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The 12z GFS had a hurricane in the East Pac late in its run... The 18z run showed the same storm just a little weaker, maybe a strong TS


Could u post the strongest part of thr run?
May 5, 2011

May 5, 2012

Quoting weatherh98:
I can't wait for hurricane season! We will stop arguing haha! Right now blobs will do!


You're kidding right? Any arguing right now is just pregame.
Quoting PedleyCA:


Well this could qualify as the later of those. How ya doing Red?

Well I'm, just putting my hot water bottle in the bed and dusting down the teddy's as its 1.30 am over here 36 North, 4 west!
The rains of the last few days have ceased and Stoner won the GP on the bikes.
Nothing much to chew on at the moment,( the French elections don't count,) so I'll leave it at; another day less.
Hasta Manana
Quoting Hangten:


I think there was a little cooling after 1945. But then it started going up. Im not a scientist but I know many and they tell me it is not so much the ground temperature to watch but the troposphere is getting warmer. Would anybody have an idea why this is so?


A couple of things.

One of the contributors to the cooling in the mid-part of last century was, ironically, our pollution. Before clean air acts were put in place across the world power production and industry pumped a lot of SO2 and other such aerosols into the atmosphere. These compounds act to cool the planet by reflecting solar radiation back into space. Volcanic eruptions also produce these types of aerosols which contribute to the cooling effect large volcanic eruptions have on the planet. Once we started scrubbing smokestacks and such the amount of these compounds in the atmosphere dropped.

Next, let's talk about the signature of global warming. In order for the planet to warm, the planet either needs to receive more energy or trap more energy.

If the planet were receiving more energy, then the warming would show up in all layers of the atmosphere. So not only would the troposphere warm up, but so would the stratosphere. Detailed solar records as well as observations rule out an increase in insolation as a cause.

If the planet were trapping more energy, then we would see unequal warming between the layers of the atmosphere, as the layer trapping the energy would prevent it from being re-radiated through the other layers. This is what current observations show is happening. The troposphere has been warming while the stratosphere has been cooling, which indicates that something has changed within the troposphere that preventing energy from being re-radiated out into space.
Quoting wxgeek723:


You're kidding right? Any arguing right now is just pregame.


Yea but cane arguing is better than climate change arguing
Quoting Neapolitan:
There's a (now rope) tornado on the ground in Olathe, Kansas--that is, in the southwest corner of the KC metro area.


Severe Storms Roll Through KC Metro Live
May 5, 2011

May 5' 2012

Quoting PlazaRed:

Well I'm, just putting my hot water bottle in the bed and dusting down the teddy's as its 1.30 am over here 36 North, 4 west!
The rains of the last few days have ceased and Stoner won the GP on the bikes.
Nothing much to chew on at the moment,( the French elections don't count,) so I'll leave it at; another day less.
Hasta Manana


Sleep Well Amigo....
Quoting Xyrus2000:


A couple of things.

One of the contributors to the cooling in the mid-part of last century was, ironically, our pollution. Before clean air acts were put in place across the world power production and industry pumped a lot of SO2 and other such aerosols into the atmosphere. These compounds act to cool the planet by reflecting solar radiation back into space. Volcanic eruptions also produce these types of aerosols which contribute to the cooling effect large volcanic eruptions have on the planet. Once we started scrubbing smokestacks and such the amount of these compounds in the atmosphere dropped.

Next, let's talk about the signature of global warming. In order for the planet to warm, the planet either needs to receive more energy or trap more energy.

If the planet were receiving more energy, then the warming would show up in all layers of the atmosphere. So not only would the troposphere warm up, but so would the stratosphere. Detailed solar records as well as observations rule out an increase in insolation as a cause.

If the planet were trapping more energy, then we would see unequal warming between the layers of the atmosphere, as the layer trapping the energy would prevent it from being re-radiated through the other layers. This is what current observations show is happening. The troposphere has been warming while the stratosphere has been cooling, which indicates that something has changed within the troposphere that preventing energy from being re-radiated out into space.


The troposphere is made up of different components that the stratosphere. Likewise different heat conductors and absorbers.
May 6, 2012 SST Anomaly
204 PlazaRed: Sea level rise, increased storms, ice melting in a big way all over the place, permafrost melting, methane release increase, stronger storms, droughts, floods and of course lack of ice at the north pole, hence, lack of polar bears, all good news if you are normally a species that is a prey of polar bears. For the rest of us non polar bear preys; interesting times are a coming!
I read that the Norwegians are going to be doing oil drilling in the Arctic for the Russians, They get 33% of the profits, I hear!
What next? Arctic shoreline holidays on currently oil spill free beaches? Aurora Bathi-all-is


Arctic CO2-injection for fracking fuel out of methane clathrate deposits.

BTW: There's a strong suspicion that recent seal die-offs and mange-like polar-bear skin-problems have been caused by minor (small in amount, maybe not so in effect) oil spills in&on previously pristine Arctic bays&beaches.
Quoting nigel20:
May 5, 2011

May 5' 2012



The SST's and TCHP still haven't recovered to where they were awhile back. How you feeling Nigel?
Quoting PedleyCA:


The SST's and TCHP still haven't recovered to where they were awhile back. How you feeling Nigel?

The NAO is currently negative, so the SST's will warm a bit...not too good seeing that i'm getting the Flu
Quoting weatherh98:


Could u post the strongest part of thr run?

I'm not too good at posting model maps :) I wouldn't get to excited... Long ways out, lots can change.
Quoting nigel20:

Good evening all.....what's the forecast for one 94S? I'm feeling weak because have the Flu...i can't tell when was the last time that I had the Flu

I don't think it will become anything too special... Hope you feel better! I had the flu once a couple years ago... NOT fun!
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I don't think it will become anything too special... Hope you feel better! I had the flu once a couple years ago... NOT fun!

Thanks much...you're right about that
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I'm not too good at posting model maps :) I wouldn't get to excited... Long ways out, lots can change.


Oh Ik I jut wanna see it but don't worry about it.
Quoting EugeneTillman:


Why?

When will the majority of scientists get on board with this dangerous AGW issue and relay the message to the media? I mean, it's important, right?


They have. Unfortunately the manufactured FUD machine is far better funded than any scientific organization can ever hope to be. For example, Exxon makes more money in one fiscal quarter than is spent on NASA, NOAA, and the NSF for a year. And that's just Exxon.

The PR firms employed to discredit the science are some of the same ones that were used to try and discredit the science behind smoking, asbestos, acid rain, and ozone depletion. They've been doing this sort of thing for decades, they get paid quite a lot for what they do, and they do it very well.

Scientists do not have the time, money, nor interest in waging an all out PR campaign.
Here's a compilation of various video snippets of the Japan tornado, including one very close POV shot:

Hi Nigel. Hopefully,the flu goes away rapidly. I am posting bad news from Puerto Rico as a man was carried away by a raging river in interior PR.

Link
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


these occurences have been happening for awhile now since the blackbirds fell from the sky after midnight jan 1 2011 and just like then and now we still not know why

Quoting nigel20:
May 6, 2012 SST Anomaly


No indication whether this is the cause, but Peru's coast is about 2C warmer than normal, and has been since the beginning of the year when a warm pool of surface water collected north of Chile.
The long range GFS has "Aletta" exiting our view as a hurricane.

Second run now.

Quoting Xyrus2000:


They have. Unfortunately the manufactured FUD machine is far better funded than any scientific organization can ever hope to be. For example, Exxon makes more money in one fiscal quarter than is spent on NASA, NOAA, and the NSF for a year. And that's just Exxon.

The PR firms employed to discredit the science are some of the same ones that were used to try and discredit the science behind smoking, asbestos, acid rain, and ozone depletion. They've been doing this sort of thing for decades, they get paid quite a lot for what they do, and they do it very well.

Scientists do not have the time, money, nor interest in waging an all out PR campaign.

Agreed
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Hi Nigel. Hopefully,the flu goes away rapidly. I am posting bad news from Puerto Rico as a man was carried away by a raging river in interior PR.

Link

Thanks much TWpr...that's very sad condolence to his family
301. xcool
2012 hurricane season going to be very quite interesting .
Quoting Skyepony:
Something happened to the live cameras at Fukushima..


Probably either a VLC or CCD/CMOS failure.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The long range GFS has "Aletta" exiting our view as a hurricane.

Second run now.


Do you have a link to that site?
306. xcool
brb later
There is a continued upward trend in the SOI...i don't know how long it will last
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Do you have a link to that site?

Link
Thanx for the memories "Goober", and for pumping the Hi-test and wiping the windshield.

Fair winds.

George Lindsey Dead: 'Andy Griffith Show' Actor Known As Goober Pyle Dies At 83
Quoting Patrap:
Thanx for the memories "Goober", and for pumping the Hi-test and wiping the windshield.

Fair winds.

George Lindsey Dead: 'Andy Griffith Show' Actor Known As Goober Pyle Dies At 83

Condolences to his friends, fans, and family. He always seemed like a decent guy.

*****

I notice that a lot of the TV actors from the 60s are beginning to die with regularity. I guess that is to be expected, but I'm giving notice now --when Barbara Eden goes, I board the mothership. I will not live in a world without Jeannie. (She was my first love.)
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


No indication whether this is the cause, but Peru's coast is about 2C warmer than normal, and has been since the beginning of the year when a warm pool of surface water collected north of Chile.
maybe somebody was shooting off fireworks and it scared them all to death

j/k
I'm Talky Tina...and I took care of earlier problems on the blog...

Quoting nigel20:
There is a continued upward trend in the SOI...i don't know how long it will last


Ummm, that uptick is very interesting. Maybe,El Nino will delay it's appearance if it does at all.
hi guys,

SALINE MO-759 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SALINE COUNTY UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 755 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MALTA BEND...OR 6 MILES WEST OF MARSHALL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE... MARSHALL...SLATER AND MIAMI.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3897 9331 3917 9346 3923 9337 3923 9335
3925 9334 3926 9333 3933 9324 3933 9323
3938 9318 3912 9295 3910 9294
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 243DEG 17KT 3914 9328
Quoting EugeneTillman:


The troposphere is made up of different components that the stratosphere. Likewise different heat conductors and absorbers.


No it isn't. It is made of the same gases, just different concentrations. Like the troposphere, the stratosphere is comprised mainly of nitrogen and oxygen, with trace amounts of other gases (CO2, O3, etc.).

What you're implying is that the troposphere and the stratosphere can heat and cool independent of one another, which not only violates the laws of thermodynamics but also flies in the face of atmospheric physics.

Fundamentally, it comes down to energy balance. The difference between incoming and outgoing energy determines the overall temperature of our planet. If either the incoming energy increases or the outgoing energy decreases, our planet warms. No amount of finagling with physics will make the planet warm up otherwise. The energy has to come from somewhere. In other words, the Earth doesn't just start warming up just because it feels like it.
..please, Mr Picture,Picture.








This image shows the moon at centre, with the limb of Earth near the bottom transitioning into the orange-coloured troposphere, the lowest and most dense portion of the Earth's atmosphere. The troposphere ends abruptly at the tropopause, which appears in the image as the sharp boundary between the orange- and blue- coloured atmosphere. The silvery-blue noctilucent clouds extend far above the Earth's troposphere.
Quoting pcola57:
European Links for African continent...
(hope this comes out ok...By the way how do you re-name a link when posting?)



Link



Link


Where it says "link" in the box, remove it and enter the text you want


http://www.sat24.com/af" target="_blank" onclick="if(!checkUrl(this.href)) return false;" rel="nofollow">Link


Moon Image
Quoting pottery:
Meanwhile--
Google "Mitch Dobrowner photos" and check the winning images in the Sony photo competition.
Spectacular shots of Texas Twisters...

Fine Art of Storms
lots more where that came from
Lots of storms and landscapes.
Quoting pcola57:
European Links for African continent...
(hope this comes out ok...By the way how do you re-name a link when posting?)



Link



Link


Type what you want the link to say, highlight it, then click on link and enter it there.
Ok Patrap and WXGeekVA,
I'll try and change my last posted links...
TY
Quoting pcola57:
Ok Patrap,
I'll try and change my last posted links...
TY



naw, leave um as is.

They fine.

One can use the preview when needed to see wassup before posting in.

I do it during the "Season", like when I post the new ATCF Model Solutions and stuff.

Only took me 2.3 years to figger it out.

But I was a yakky for a spell.

: )
Quoting bappit:

Fine Art of Storms
lots more where that came from
Lots of storms and landscapes.

HEH !
Just checking in to check out for the night and saw your post. Thanks for including the link!

Did not see the Sun at all today, and from the looks of the SatLoops, we have some nasty stuff approaching from the S/W again.
Never known a dry season like this.
What's it all about, Alfie ?
314,I dream of Jeannie and Raquel Welch in a cellophane bikini.But I digress.


Need to hear from the guy near Budda, TX to see how how the rains were
No major hurricane has hit United States since 2005,1 st longest in history of keeping tracks of storms!Once in a million years event.
Quoting help4u:
No major hurricane has hit United States since 2005,1 st longest in history of keeping tracks of storms!Once in a million years event.


Have to ask Grothar about that.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Ummm, that uptick is very interesting. Maybe,El Nino will delay it's appearance if it does at all.

I guess we have to just wait and see
Quoting nigel20:
There is a continued upward trend in the SOI...i don't know how long it will last


We maybe seeing a larger step up like in Dec of last year. ESPI just plummeted from -0.13 to -0.47 in the last week.
Some great pics of the moon everybody. This is about the best I could do picture wise. At High Island Beach on Bolivar. That was an emotional first trip back since before Ike. Which turned comical with my husband and I trying to work the camera. I bet everyone else was like, " I wish those two old fools would shut up and just enjoy it!" Which we finally did. :)


Quoting RitaEvac:


Need to hear from the guy near Budda, TX to see how how the rains were


Yeah, I'm curious too. I'm hoping the rains to the west of there are hitting the reservoirs. They need it badly.
Ok Patrap WXGeekVA or whomever would like to help me...I've learned how to title my links properly (post#321) ..Hurrah!
Now I would like to be able to post an image as I seem to be having trouble with that...anyone?
Quoting help4u:
No major hurricane has hit United States since 2005,1 st longest in history of keeping tracks of storms!Once in a million years event.


Obviously caused by AGW.
338. BtnTx
Quoting Patrap:
Thanx for the memories "Goober", and for pumping the Hi-test and wiping the windshield.

Fair winds.

George Lindsey Dead: 'Andy Griffith Show' Actor Known As Goober Pyle Dies At 83
Wow the reality of growing older hits me again as my parents are in the late 80's and my Grandmother is 104.
Quoting pcola57:
Ok Patrap WXGeekVA or whomever would like to help me...I've learned how to title my links properly (post#321) ..Hurrah!
Now I would like to be able to post an image as I seem to be having trouble with that...anyone?


Copy image location by right clicking it, then paste it after clicking image on the blog, post comment, and it should work.
Ok WXGeekVa..gonna work on it..
TY for your help :)
341. BtnTx
.
.
.
Quoting pcola57:
.


Not seeing it... Is it from a site that won't allow linking?
Quoting pcola57:


#344 worked!
Yessss...Thanks so much WXGeekVA...
Sorry about the triple post but at least it's not at a peak time...and yes I believe the other site was restricted...Bravo!!
Quoting pcola57:
Yessss...Thanks so much WXGeekVA...
Sorry about the triple post but at least it's not at a peak time...and yes I believe the other site was restricted...Bravo!!


No problem, glad I could help!
Low pressure off of Carolina coast doesn't look well-organized at all...oh well...I guess its not going to develop...
Good night all
Time for Coast to Coast AM with Art Bell...Somewhere In Time...



Awesome Cat: NIGHT!!

Tis the season...

Lake Charles NWS discussion

2ND SHOT AT PRECIP COMES BEGINNING FRIDAY AS THE SWRN CONUS LOW
OPENS UP AND PUSHES EWD...SPREADING WEAK WAVES ACROSS THE GULF
COAST REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN GULF AND MOVE EWD.
..THUS POPS ARE
TRENDED DOWNWARD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY.

MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND SRLY...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SHOT OF MORE
MODERATE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT EVENING OR TWO WITH THE
TYPICAL NOCTURNAL JETTING WE SEE OVER THE WRN GULF. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE
LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE GULF LOW MENTIONED EARLIER PASSES BY.



WTXS51 PGTW 070300
WARNING ATCP MIL 19S SIO 120507014823
2012050700 19S NINETEEN 001 01 150 06 SATL 060
T000 062S 1277E 035
T012 068S 1278E 040 R034 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD
T024 076S 1274E 045 R034 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD
T036 086S 1267E 050 R034 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD
T048 096S 1257E 050 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 111S 1241E 055 R050 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 119S 1228E 060
T120 123S 1208E 055
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 6.2S 127.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 6.2S 127.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 6.8S 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 7.6S 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 8.6S 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 9.6S 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 11.1S 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 11.9S 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 12.3S 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 6.4S 127.7E.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN 061721Z
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z AND 080300Z.
//
1912050506 51S1275E 15
1912050512 51S1273E 20
1912050518 51S1270E 25
1912050600 51S1268E 25
1912050606 52S1263E 25
1912050612 54S1271E 30
1912050618 57S1274E 30
1912050700 62S1277E 35
NNNN

361. BtnTx
Quoting pcola57:
These nighttime images are awesome!
Quoting BtnTx:
These nighttime images are awesome!


Here's the link to those nightime pictures...Enjoy!!
Quoting BtnTx:
Thanks!


Your Welcome :)
Two interesting theories.... time will expose the truth



Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (NONAME)
7:00 AM WIT May 7 2012
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1000 hPa) located at 7.0S 128.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots.

This tropical depression may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 6-12 hours.

forecast and intensity
======================

12 HRS: 7.4S 128.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS: 7.9S 127.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
You don't have to sensationalize a crisis like Fukushima.
Galleries: See photos from the second weekend of Jazz Fest

Photos from the New Orleans Jazz and Heritage Festival, Sunday, May 6, 2012.

Fukushima, unreal they only recently let the rest of the world in the help them. Pride of the Japanese people I get(their unselfishness and lack of greed while in great need I think the whole world was awed by), but pride has no place when so much is still at stake. Japanese people want full disclosure too lots of protests for that disclosure and uncertainty remains high. Not to mention the people of Japan want nuclear power gone.
RTSplayer and a few others got into a back and forth that was never headed anywhere. RTS made some strong arguments but at the same time he superseded his beliefs onto them and all who opposed his view. As I'm sure most of you know, I'm a Christian, and I believe there's a right place and time to share your faith and truths. Sharing is the key word, when one supersedes their truth onto others one of two things will happen, they will shut down, or mock you. No one converts one if you will, by sharing their faith, you can hope that someone seeks but it's God who does the work. Planting the seed of our salvation is our most important job. In the long run you just never know, and that's what faith is all about. And a shout out to Keeper too. We have some views that are the same with GW almost across the board I think, but in realms of OUR truths they couldn't be more far apart. He pokes fun at me and I at him but its in good humor and never demeaning. I thank most everyone for that also.
371. MahFL
Quoting BobWallace:


It's no longer a question of whether mankind has caused climate change by burning fossil fuels. That's settled science.


Many people disagree with that statement.
372. MahFL
Quoting hydrus:
... Maybe we could even get a couple of decent tropical storms to wipe out the drought in South Florida and Texas...


What about the exceptional drought in parts of Northern Florida ?
Quoting MahFL:


Many people disagree with that statement.


Are we now waiting for 100% agreement? Is that a new tactic from the Koch Brothers and Heartland Institute?

Many people may disagree with the statement but that doesn't mean its not settled science.
Quoting MahFL:


Many people disagree with that statement.
That may be true--but what's important to note is that the overwhelming majority of scientists don't...
Looks like the start of the rainy season today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

.DISCUSSION...

...CONVECTIVE PATTERN LOOKS RATHER ACTIVE FOR EARLY MAY...

TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT AND ITS ASSOCD SFC/LOW LVL TROF
WILL STALL OVER N FL TODAY AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED BTWN A SMALL HI
PRES RIDGE OVER THE FL STRAITS AND A MUCH LARGER CONTINENTAL RIDGE
PUSHING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLC COAST. LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE
LVLS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH WITH H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES TOPPING
OUT BTWN 75-80PCT ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY. THE 07/00Z SOUNDINGS
CONFIRMS THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WITH MAX PW VALUES ARND 1.4" AT
KJAX...DOWN TO 1.1" AT KMFL.

WEAK MID LVL VORTICITY AND UPR LVL DIVERGENCE OVER THE ERN GOMEX AND
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ADD TO THE CONVECTIVE MIX...WHILE
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE U80S/L90S
AREAWIDE...M80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. VERY WEAK SFC/LOW LVL
PGRAD WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM BY MIDDAY AND
PUSH WELL INLAND THRU THE AFTN. LAPSE RATES THRU THE H85-H50 LYR ARE
RUNNING BTWN 6-7C/KM AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THAT RANGE AS A WEAK MID
LVL COLD POOL ASSOCD WITH THE FRONT PRESSES INTO N FL THRU THE DAY.

MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND CONVECTIVE INITIATORS ALL PRESENT AND
ACCOUNTED FOR...THOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE THE WEAKEST LINK. WILL
GO WITH SCT POPS AREAWIDE TODAY AND SCT/ISOLD TONIGHT...HIGHEST
NUMBERS N OF THE ORLANDO METROPLEX...LOWEST AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MOISTURE PROFILE. STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE
ENHANCED DUE TO THE COOL AIR ALOFT AND RELATIVELY STEEP MID LVL
LAPSE RATES...BUT WITH WEAK MID/UPR LVL DYNAMIC SUPPORT...SVR WX
POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW.

TUE-THU...BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK...WHICH
WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA.
WHILE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR AT LEAST SCT AFTN/EVENING
CONVECTION...SUBTLE H50 VORTLOBES PASSING OVHD SHOULD LEAD TO A LTL
HIGHER POPS (50-60) ON THAT DAY AREAWIDE. FLOW FLATTENS SLIGHTLY
WED-THU...WITH HIGHER POPS INDICATED ALONG THE EAST COAST (50 VS 40)
IN PROXIMITY TO LATE DAY SEA BREEZE. BY THU...DEEPEST MOISTURE IS
PROGGED TO GET PUSHED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD LAKE OKEECHOBEE...
AHEAD OF WEAK COOL FRONT THAT SAGS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA THU NIGHT.
POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL BE ABOUT 10 PCT HIGHER (40 VS 30).
MAV TEMPS LOOK LIKE THEY RUN ABOUT A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO...
WHICH LOOKS FINE GIVEN THE SW FLOW REGIME. EARLY MAY MID LEVEL
ATMOSPHERIC TEMPS TYPICALLY FAVOR SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS.

FRI-MON...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT OVER SOUTH FL/STRAITS BY LATE
FRI AS ONSHORE FLOW TAKES HOLD AND FRESHENS SOME INTO THE WEEKEND.
EVEN WITH IMMEDIATE RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW...MEAN DRYING INDICATED
FOR FRI-SAT DUE TO TRANSIENT MID LEVEL RIDGE WHICH BUILDS ALOFT.
POPS BOTH DAYS 20 OR LESS....TEMPTED TO GO WITH JUST LOW TOPPED
SHOWERS (CONFINED TO THE SOUTH FRI) BUT SINCE WERE GETTING TOWARD
LATE MAY KEPT TS IN FCST. INCREASING MOISTURE/POPS INDICATED FOR
SUN-MON AS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE SERN CONUS.

how about a picture of george porter banging on his bass n.o fest


Good morning! Heads up Ohio Valley and points east, we may have some thunder today. About time, too...
Quoting islander101010:
how about a picture of george porter banging on his bass n.o fest


FISH ABUSE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
380. MahFL
Sadly 2 inches of rain won't break my drought.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I can't tell how happy I am to see this as people from TX to FL have endured a very serious drought for 2 years. That rain in TX moves east to FL over the weekend more likely starting on Sunday.
Orlando

Does the gfs still have that epac storm?
These plants must believe in global warming.

Didn't they get the memo from Koch Industries?
The GFS still has "Hurricane Aletta" in the Eastern Pacific and a low pressure area in the Caribbean as it has shown for the past several runs. However, as Levi stated yesterday, the model has shown it consistently for several days at the end of the run, and until it moves up in time, the chances of what the model actually shows aren't that great...at least, not within 384 hours.

386. MahFL
Whats that spinning offshore Jacksonville ?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The GFS still has "Hurricane Aletta" in the Eastern Pacific and a low pressure area in the Caribbean as it has shown for the past several runs. However, as Levi stated yesterday, the model has shown it consistently for several days at the end of the run, and until it moves up in time, the chances of what the model actually shows aren't that great...at least, not within 384 hours.


Does All of this occur with the upward pulse of the MJO?
Quoting MahFL:
Whats that spinning offshore Jacksonville ?
A washing machine.
In keeping with the current topic, here's where I'm placing my dot:

Link

Climate change will threaten this little piece of Canadian Tundra, as well as the snowshoe hare, beaver, various spruce trees and the native bogs. My family has been hiking and camping up in the Sods for decades, all the way back to my great grandfather. Just make sure if you camp in the fall or early winter, you bring acrtic gear along and don't forget the snow shovel :) Boots are required all year long to protect from the timber rattlers. Keep to the trails, because if you get lost, you may be lost for days...

Make sure you visit wild places like this soon, before they are lost. Where will you place your dot this summer?
Quoting StormTracker2K:


I can't tell how happy I am to see this as people from TX to FL have endured a very serious drought for 2 years. That rain in TX moves east to FL over the weekend more likely starting on Sunday.

Morning All, Stormtracker2k did you get any of those storms yesterday? Bring on the rain 13 inches below normal in z-hills wcfl.
Well I'm at the doctor, was messing around with my friend yesterday after the concert and I either dislocated or badly sprained or tore something in my knee. Its really painful but hey, at least I get a day off from school!
Good morning everyone. Looks like the low finally made the NHC radar. Now my NWS is calling it a trough. Lol.

SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
444 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE ALONG 27N WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF THROUGH
TUE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO N GULF COASTAL PLAIN LATE
WED AND LIE ALONG 26N E OF 87W BY THU EVENING. A WEAK LOW PRES
SYSTEM WILL PASS OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE FRI.

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
305 AM EDT MON MAY 07 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX DIFFERENCE AMONG THE MODELS
UNTIL A COLD FRONT REACHES THE N GULF COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT
WED NIGHT. THE TREND IN THE 00Z GFS AND UKMET IS TOWARD A WEAKER
FRONT COMPARED TO THE MAY 06/00Z RUNS. THE UKMET STILL BRIEFLY
HANGS ON TO A SMALL POCKET OF 20 KT WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS
OFF THE TX/LA BORDER THU MORNING...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF DO NOT.
THE WEAKER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FIT THE TREND AND WILL BE USED TO
ADJUST THE GRIDS. BY THU...THE 00Z GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF ALL
AGREE ON ALLOWING TROUGHING TO LINGER OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND FORCE 20 KT WINDS IN THE SW GULF BETWEEN IT AND HIGH PRES
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE GFS HAS THE MOST EXPANSIVE AREA OF 20
KT WINDS. THE GRIDS WILL BE HEDGED TOWARD THE ECMWF HERE. LARGER
MODEL DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY IN THE W GULF ON FRI. THE 00Z
GFS CARRIES AN INTENSE MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER FROM TX INTO
THE GULF LATE FRI. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO
INTENSE...GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE NW GULF. THE ECMWF
ALSO CARRIES A SMALL...STRONG LOW OFF THE TX COAST FRI WITH 25
KT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT BEFORE IT DIMINISHES AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD FRI NIGHT. THE UKMET BARELY BRINGS WINDS TO 20 KT
HERE. AFRAID TO GO AGAINST BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HERE...SO WILL
HEDGE TOWARD THE WEAKER ECMWF.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Well I'm at the doctor, was messing around with my friend yesterday after the concert and I either dislocated or badly sprained or tore something in my knee. Its really painful but hey, at least I get a day off from school!


I hope you feel better soon and enjoy your day off. :)
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Well I'm at the doctor, was messing around with my friend yesterday after the concert and I either dislocated or badly sprained or tore something in my knee. Its really painful but hey, at least I get a day off from school!


Torn ACL perhaps
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Well I'm at the doctor, was messing around with my friend yesterday after the concert and I either dislocated or badly sprained or tore something in my knee. Its really painful but hey, at least I get a day off from school!
be happy you are not a horse we shoot them once they take out the leg
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Good morning everyone. Looks like the low finally made the NHC radar. Now my NWS is calling it a trough. Lol.

SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
444 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE ALONG 27N WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF THROUGH
TUE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO N GULF COASTAL PLAIN LATE
WED AND LIE ALONG 26N E OF 87W BY THU EVENING. A WEAK LOW PRES
SYSTEM WILL PASS OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE FRI.

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
305 AM EDT MON MAY 07 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX DIFFERENCE AMONG THE MODELS
UNTIL A COLD FRONT REACHES THE N GULF COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT
WED NIGHT. THE TREND IN THE 00Z GFS AND UKMET IS TOWARD A WEAKER
FRONT COMPARED TO THE MAY 06/00Z RUNS. THE UKMET STILL BRIEFLY
HANGS ON TO A SMALL POCKET OF 20 KT WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS
OFF THE TX/LA BORDER THU MORNING...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF DO NOT.
THE WEAKER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FIT THE TREND AND WILL BE USED TO
ADJUST THE GRIDS. BY THU...THE 00Z GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF ALL
AGREE ON ALLOWING TROUGHING TO LINGER OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND FORCE 20 KT WINDS IN THE SW GULF BETWEEN IT AND HIGH PRES
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE GFS HAS THE MOST EXPANSIVE AREA OF 20
KT WINDS. THE GRIDS WILL BE HEDGED TOWARD THE ECMWF HERE. LARGER
MODEL DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY IN THE W GULF ON FRI. THE 00Z
GFS CARRIES AN INTENSE MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER FROM TX INTO
THE GULF LATE FRI. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO
INTENSE...GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE NW GULF. THE ECMWF
ALSO CARRIES A SMALL...STRONG LOW OFF THE TX COAST FRI WITH 25
KT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT BEFORE IT DIMINISHES AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD FRI NIGHT. THE UKMET BARELY BRINGS WINDS TO 20 KT
HERE. AFRAID TO GO AGAINST BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HERE...SO WILL
HEDGE TOWARD THE WEAKER ECMWF.


Yeah it looks as if a significant rain event may traverse from TX across the Gulf and over FL this weekend.

Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yeah it looks as if a significant rain event may traverse from TX across the Gulf and over FL this weekend.



That would be great. I was glad to see the hill country getting rain with more to come it looks like. Hope everyone gets a good soaking.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I hope you feel better soon and enjoy your day off. :)


Thanks :)

Quoting StormTracker2K:


Torn ACL perhaps


Doctor says probably torn MCL but possible ACL damage too... There goes basketball and swim season.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
be happy you are not a horse we shoot them once they take out the leg


LOL Keeper that just made my day hahaha!!!!
Geeeeeeee.....zus


Quoting WxGeekVA:


Thanks :)



Doctor says probably torn MCL but possible ACL damage too... There goes basketball and swim season.



LOL Keeper that just made my day hahaha!!!!
Tore ACL and Meniscus 15 years ago. Surgery was excellent but a bit painful. I wish you a fast and thorough recovery..:)..We might get some rough stuff today..
Wave caravan over SA & EPac



Finally rain left us....


Quoting RitaEvac:
Geeeeeeee.....zus


Looks like a flash flood event.
Thank goodness its finally raining here in Memphis!
Quoting hydrus:
Tore ACL and Meniscus 15 years ago. Surgery was excellent but a bit painful. I wish you a fast and thorough recovery..:)..We might get some rough stuff today..


Thanks Hydrus. Hoping to not have surgery, depends on what grade tear it is. I'm about to have an MRI to tell but the doctor says probably just rest, crutches, and a brace for a few weeks unless it looks really bad on the MRI.

Yep, looks like a pretty large slight risk area today too. Plenty of strong boomers around today!
Quoting MahFL:


What about the exceptional drought in parts of Northern Florida ?
They have the best chance of getting an early season tropical storm.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Thanks Hydrus. Hoping to not have surgery, depends on what grade tear it is. I'm about to have an MRI to tell but the doctor says probably just rest, crutches, and a brace for a few weeks unless it looks really bad on the MRI.

Yep, looks like a pretty large slight risk area today too. Plenty of strong boomers around today!
If it is a tear, your tendon will probably not heal to be as strong as it was. Let me know how the MRI turns out. Big dip in the jet bringing cooler weather this week..
NASA Weather 'Eye in the Sky' Marks 10 Years

ScienceDaily (May 7, 2012) — For 10 years, it has silently swooped through space in its orbital perch 438 miles (705 kilometers) above Earth, its nearly 2,400 spectral "eyes" peering into Earth's atmosphere, watching. But there's nothing alien about NASA's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder, or AIRS, instrument, a "monster" of weather and climate research that celebrates its 10th birthday in orbit May 4.............

Link



Quoting WxGeekVA:


Thanks :)



Doctor says probably torn MCL but possible ACL damage too... There goes basketball and swim season.



LOL Keeper that just made my day hahaha!!!!


I too swim and play basketball
In my honest opinion, I don't think it's global warming people don't believe in, it's the hippies telling us to "go green" that we don't believe. It's hard to see the big picture behind the people standing in front of you telling you what they want you to know. The public is fed decieving information to make a profit. They say "go green". Other details are in the fine print. Everything else is hidden from public eyes. How many gimmics out there tell us to do this not that because it's "environmentally friendly" but have major flaws that hinder the main purpose? And call it "eco friendly"? Where's the friendly part? In the long run the decievers are doing more harm than the people they target. Because everyday people figure stuff. After a while people don't know what to believe. It's not the global warming people don't believe in, it's the bull we're fed and fed up with. At least that's my 2 cents.