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Philippines death toll from Ketsana rises to 140; Vietnam the typhoon's next target

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:52 PM GMT on September 28, 2009

The Philippine Islands continue to count the dead in the wake of the catastrophe left by Tropical Storm Ketsana on Saturday. Hard-hit was the capital of Manila, where the 16.7 inches of rain that fell in just 12 hours set a record for the heaviest 1-day rainfall ever recorded in the city (previous record: 13.2 inches in 24 hours, set in June 1967). In the six hours between 8am and 2pm local time on the 25th, Manila recorded 13.4 inches of rain--over 2.2 inches per hour. There rainfall rates were observable via satellite observations from NASA's TRMM satellite, well in advance of when the storm made landfall in the Philippines (Figure 2). The TRMM satellite showed a small core of heavy rain in excess of 1.6 inches per hours near the center of Ketsana, and this core moved directly over the city of Manila.


Figure 1. Cars being swept away by Ketsana's flood waters in a still frame from a dramatic YouTube video captured by medical students at the East Ramon Magsaysay Memorial Medical Center.

The flooding from Ketsana's rains was the worst in at least 42 years in Manila, and President Gloria Arroyo called Ketsana "a once-in-a-lifetime typhoon". At least 140 people are dead, 32 missing, and up to 450,000 homeless from the flooding in the Philippines.

Ketsana is not finished yet. The typhoon has begun a period of rapid intensification, and is now on the verge of attaining Category 2 typhoon status as it approaches a Tuesday landfall in Vietnam. Ketsana's heavy rains and high winds could exact a high toll in Vietnam.


Figure 2. Rainfall from Tropical Storm Ketsana as estimated by NASA's TRMM satellite, a few hours before the heavy rainfall began in Manila. Note the small core of heavy rain with rainfall rates off-scale (greater than 1.6 inches/hour) to the east of Manila. This region of heavy rain passed directly over the city between 8am and 2pm local time on 9/25/09. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey..

Quiet in the Atlantic
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days. Wind shear is predicted to be high in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean this week, limiting the potential for anything to develop close to land.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters!
Thank you, Sir.
Wet and wild for the Malagasy republic hope they are able to dry out and restore in a timely manner.
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days. Wind shear is predicted to be high in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean this week, limiting the potential for anything to develop close to land.

Jeff Masters



Keep bringing the good news Doc!!
none of the computer models are hinting of tropical development the next seven days, yet there is an area of disturbed weather wsw of the cape verde islands which is showing some promise. i will monitor this area the rest of today
Tropical Update: Nuttin
Thanks Dr. In terms of the dry cool air starting to filter down across the SE conus due to a nice cold front, and, very hostile conditions in the MDR, looks like I will be in "lurk" mode on the Blog for next two weeks. The Blog is not "dead" (don't want to see those comments), the Tropical Atlantic is in "hibernation" right now........ :)
holy cow. you don't want to be in a car when rain is falling at a high rate. extreme weather elsewhere. benign weather in the atlantic, caribbean, and gom.
have a great monday, everyone.
Thank You for the update Dr. Masters
for comparison....
Good Morning, I added some Pacific Graphics this time... just so I could find some AOI's.


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


For those of you bored, check out the comments section for the Comedy
That's scary: Tropical Storm Ketsana. Americans are pretty well conditioned to think it's not a big deal if it isn't a hurricane, and even to treat category 1 hurricanes as minor.

fireflymom @3: is there something weird going on in Madagascar too, or was "Malagasy Republic" an error for the Philippines?
Quoting noraed:
That's scary: Tropical Storm Ketsana. Americans are pretty well conditioned to think it's not a big deal if it isn't a hurricane, and even to treat category 1 hurricanes as minor.

fireflymom @3: is there something weird going on in Madagascar too, or was "Malagasy Republic" an error for the Philippines?


That's because that's typically the case in the United States. Few tropical cyclones of that intensity produce a catastrophic flood event, with the rare exception of stalling systems such as Alberto (1994) and Fay (2008).

Most of the flooding in the USA from tropical cyclones, occurs across mountainous areas, where orographic lift enhances precipitation.
Can someone tell me how this Sept ranks in the record books in terms of activity? It has to be one of the slowest of all time. One storm and if I remember correct, 2 hurricane days.
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Can someone tell me how this Sept ranks in the record books in terms of activity? It has to be one of the slowest of all time. One storm and if I remember correct, 2 hurricane days.


It is the quietest September since 1997, where only 1 storm occurred during the month. However, despite that fact, September 1997 still had more hurricane days than September 2009. In fact, Erika (1997) persisted as a hurricane for well over a week.
In terms of ACE though, I'm pretty sure that September 2009 ranks among the quietest.
Allison in 2001 was a Tropical Storm that Flooded Houston and took many Lives.


Allison is the only Tropical Storm in the Basin to Have its name retired.


Tropical Storm Allison on June 5, 2001
Formed June 4, 2001
Dissipated June 18, 2001
Highest
winds
60 mph (95 km/h) (1-minute sustained)
Lowest pressure 1000 mbar (hPa; 29.53 inHg)
Fatalities 41 direct, 14 indirect
Damage $5.5 billion (2001 USD)
$6.77 billion (2009 USD)
Areas
affected Texas (particularly around Houston), Louisiana, most of the Eastern United States
Good morning all
Quoting Patrap:
Allison in 2001 was a Tropical Storm that Flooded Houston and took many Lives.


Allison is the only Tropical Storm in the Basin to Have its name retired.


Tropical Storm Allison on June 5, 2001
Formed June 4, 2001
Dissipated June 18, 2001
Highest
winds
60 mph (95 km/h) (1-minute sustained)
Lowest pressure 1000 mbar (hPa; 29.53 inHg)
Fatalities 41 direct, 14 indirect
Damage $5.5 billion (2001 USD)
$6.77 billion (2009 USD)
Areas
affected Texas (particularly around Houston), Louisiana, most of the Eastern United States

Ahh yes, Allison. I remember her well. Of course, how can you forget when you end up with a 25 inch 12 hour rainfall total and a 38 inch 5 day rainfall total??? Allison is certainly a storm that SETX will never forget.
Good morning everyone! Back to forecasting after a short break. I have updated all the forecasts and Tropical Update at the CCHS Weather Center site for anyone who accesses my website.
stalled tropical troughs can deal out enormus amount of rain have not seen one in many yrs for example "pine apple express" whats going on with this weather? once in a lifetime storms occurring in taiwan and phillipines even atlanta
Quoting pearlandaggie:


A lot of heat in the wheel house of October / November. Hopefully shear continues to rule the roost.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


A lot of heat in the wheel house of October / November. Hopefully shear continues to rule the roost.


yep...quite a bit of cooling off the eastern seaboard, though. this is good news for the east coast regarding those late-season, recurving storms.
Typhoon Ketsana has intensified to a CAT 2 storm, pressures estimated at 956MB. Recent satellite picture shows her slowly closing in on Central Vietnam, still intensifying as she heads almost due west.

Hope and pray the Vietnamese people are prepared because it appears they're going to get hit HARD.
Quoting tornadodude:
Where is this???


I believe GU = Guam.
Quoting tornadofan:


I believe GU = Guam.


ah ok, thanks
Quoting tornadodude:
Where is this???


Here

this one is better

The following islands and groups of islands are considered part of Micronesia:

* Banaba, an outlier of Kiribati
* Gilbert Islands, which forms part of Kiribati
* Mariana Islands, politically divided between Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands
* Marshall Islands
* Caroline Islands, politically divided between Palau and the Federated States of Micronesia
* Nauru
* Wake Island
Quoting Orcasystems:


Here


thank you, I was though it was Guam, but only because it had an NWS warning, which means it is in the US or part of it anyway
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters. What a mess in the Philippines.
Thanks Orca
Quoting tornadodude:


thank you, I was though it was Guam, but only because it had an NWS warning, which means it is in the US or part of it anyway


I have been to Guam.. fantastic little place in the middle of no where. Its considered the middle class Japanese Hawaiian vacation spot.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I have been to Guam.. fantastic little place in the middle of no where. Its considered the middle class Japanese Hawaiian vacation spot.


oh interesting, I would like to go sometime
Quoting Orcasystems:


I have been to Guam.. fantastic little place in the middle of no where. Its considered the middle class Japanese Hawaiian vacation spot.


35 years ago they bragged about having the world's largest McDonalds at the time.
Quoting KoritheMan:


That's because that's typically the case in the United States. Few tropical cyclones of that intensity produce a catastrophic flood event, with the rare exception of stalling systems such as Alberto (1994) and Fay (2008).

Most of the flooding in the USA from tropical cyclones, occurs across mountainous areas, where orographic lift enhances precipitation.


There is also the rare event where multiple cyclones impact the same area with heavy rain within a few days of each other. For example: Dennis + Floyd in 1999
Quoting SQUAWK:


35 years ago they bragged about having the world's largest McDonalds at the time.


I know they had one of the best stocked PX's I had ever seen...
Quoting Orcasystems:


I know they had one of the best stocked PX's I had ever seen...


Yup. It was a real high traffic area during Nam. Lots of stuff going through there.
Quoting tornadodude:


thank you, I was though it was Guam, but only because it had an NWS warning, which means it is in the US or part of it anyway


Guam is still a US protectorate or somethinmg similar, yes?
Quoting Floodman:


Guam is still a US protectorate or somethinmg similar, yes?


Guam (en-us-Guam.ogg /ˈɡwɑːm/ (help·info); Chamorro: Guåhån), is an island in the western Pacific Ocean and is an organized, unincorporated territory of the United States. It is one of five U.S. territories with an established civilian government.[3][4] The island's capital is Hagåtña (formerly Agana). Guam is the largest and southernmost of the Mariana Islands.
44. JRRP

Geroges
Link
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 SEP 2009 Time : 150000 UTC
Lat : 16:14:54 N Lon : 110:33:16 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 968.4mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.5 5.7 6.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.4mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : -8.6C Cloud Region Temp : -68.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.2T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
My weather challenge forecast briefing from Professor Mike Baldwin:

Charleston, SC is located just south of the midpoint of the
South Carolina's coastline. KCHS is located at the Charleston AFB,
which is just north of North Charleston, roughly 15 miles NW of
Charleston Harbor and the Atlantic Ocean. Their normal
high/low temperature for this time of the year is 82/63
and their normal daily precipitation is 0.16". Looking at their
daily reports for the month of Sept 2009, they have an average max
temp of 86 and min temp of 69, which is exactly what their
high/low temps were yesterday. Their average daily max
wind speed has been 13 knots. KCHS had some thunderstorms
go through early Sunday morning, resulting in 0.18" of precip and
the strongest winds of the month (max sustained wind 21 knots).

Their proximity to the Atlantic gives them a humid, subtropical climate.
Significant terrain is found in the Appalachian Mountains in the NW
part of the state, so the terrain slopes upward as you move to the NW.
They are vulnerable to tropical storms, and just last week had the
20th anniversary of Hurricane Hugo, which made landfall just to the
east of Charleston.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Guam (en-us-Guam.ogg /ˈɡwɑːm/ (help·info); Chamorro: Guåhån), is an island in the western Pacific Ocean and is an organized, unincorporated territory of the United States. It is one of five U.S. territories with an established civilian government.[3][4] The island's capital is Hagåtña (formerly Agana). Guam is the largest and southernmost of the Mariana Islands.


Thank you, oh saintly carnivorous marine mammal!
Thank you, oh saintly carnivorous marine mammal!

You crack me up, flood. Constantly and consistently.
Good Afternoon, Futuremet!
Quoting RitaEvac:
Tropical Update: Nuttin

lol
looks like that typhoon is intensifying small eye
Quoting tornadodude:
My weather challenge forecast briefing from Professor Mike Baldwin:

Charleston, SC is located just south of the midpoint of the
South Carolina's coastline. KCHS is located at the Charleston AFB,
which is just north of North Charleston, roughly 15 miles NW of
Charleston Harbor and the Atlantic Ocean. Their normal
high/low temperature for this time of the year is 82/63
and their normal daily precipitation is 0.16". Looking at their
daily reports for the month of Sept 2009, they have an average max
temp of 86 and min temp of 69, which is exactly what their
high/low temps were yesterday. Their average daily max
wind speed has been 13 knots. KCHS had some thunderstorms
go through early Sunday morning, resulting in 0.18" of precip and
the strongest winds of the month (max sustained wind 21 knots).

Their proximity to the Atlantic gives them a humid, subtropical climate.
Significant terrain is found in the Appalachian Mountains in the NW
part of the state, so the terrain slopes upward as you move to the NW.
They are vulnerable to tropical storms, and just last week had the
20th anniversary of Hurricane Hugo, which made landfall just to the
east of Charleston.


if it helps...it's really nice here today...

btw...tell him Hugo actually hit NORTHeast of Charleston...
Eleven years ago today, Hurricane Georges paid the Mississippi Gulf Coast a visit!
Quoting tornadodude:
My weather challenge forecast briefing from Professor Mike Baldwin:

Charleston, SC is located just south of the midpoint of the
South Carolina's coastline. KCHS is located at the Charleston AFB,
which is just north of North Charleston, roughly 15 miles NW of
Charleston Harbor and the Atlantic Ocean. Their normal
high/low temperature for this time of the year is 82/63
and their normal daily precipitation is 0.16". Looking at their
daily reports for the month of Sept 2009, they have an average max
temp of 86 and min temp of 69, which is exactly what their
high/low temps were yesterday. Their average daily max
wind speed has been 13 knots. KCHS had some thunderstorms
go through early Sunday morning, resulting in 0.18" of precip and
the strongest winds of the month (max sustained wind 21 knots).

Their proximity to the Atlantic gives them a humid, subtropical climate.
Significant terrain is found in the Appalachian Mountains in the NW
part of the state, so the terrain slopes upward as you move to the NW.
They are vulnerable to tropical storms, and just last week had the
20th anniversary of Hurricane Hugo, which made landfall just to the
east of Charleston.


This is going to be fun. Good luck.
Quoting CrazyDuke:


There is also the rare event where multiple cyclones impact the same area with heavy rain within a few days of each other. For example: Dennis + Floyd in 1999


Dennis and Floyd were hell for my area.
56. JRRP
Link
CMC show a low toward the antilles

the system is currently at 10n 15w

see you later
Anyone getting any info in from the Philippines? Trying to reach my wheelchair-bound brother in Dagupan City and see if he and his wife are OK.......Patrick and Anne Dailey in the Bonuan Gueset subdivision. Any news or update on situation NORTH of Manila would be greatly appreciated!!!
Hey !
I hate those K named storms. The stuff I see on TV all looks like NOLA when the levees broke.
MJO hasn't moved much yet, but GFS insisting on it...



Bad news if the long-term (15 day) verifies. Last time it spiked in that direction we had AnaBillClaudetteDanny spin up.
BIG Caveat: GFS has performed rather poorly at the MJO forecasting most of the season. Worth watching, but not worth getting too excited about yet.
Quoting seminolesfan:
Thank you, oh saintly carnivorous marine mammal!

You crack me up, flood. Constantly and consistently.


My great pleasure, Fan...
Quoting atmoaggie:
MJO hasn't moved much yet, but GFS insisting on it...



Bad news if the long-term (15 day) verifies. Last time it spiked in that direction we had AnaBillClaudetteDanny spin up.
BIG Caveat: GFS has performed rather poorly at the MJO forecasting most of the season. Worth watching, but not worth getting too excited about yet.


Given the cyclical nature of the MJO downturn/upswing, we are due...
Much of the Gulf and western Caribbean will still be ripe for TC development when the MJO is forecasted to spike.



As ripe as October 15, 2005 was...atmospheric conditions aside.
Thursday is Oct.....looks like this season is just about a wrap.....slowest September that I can ever remember.....see y'all next year
Quoting Floodman:


Given the cyclical nature of the MJO downturn/upswing, we are due...

Question is, amplitude of 0.5 or 2.0? Could be the difference between one TS and a few TCs (one or more of which may not be just a TS)
looking to me that theres going to be strong MOJ.
Good afternoon to all
hey Weather456 !
Quoting xcool:
hey Weather456 !


hey

If you have any link that I can find archives of buoy and ship data from around the globe that would be much appreciated.
Quoting xcool:
looking to me that theres going to be strong MOJ.

Tough to believe that more than 5 days out based on the forecast skill of that feature lately.

Compare the OHC for Ketsana (went from TS to almost 100 knots between the Philippines and Vietnam) to that in the western Caribbean. No comparison, really.



But CHIPS was calling for it to do that and performed much better than the JTWC(?) Official forecasts on this one. I don't think the forecasts are archived on the server, but 2 days ago, this was calling for the 100 knot system.

Quoting Weather456:


hey

If you have any link that I can find archives of buoy and ship data from around the globe that would be much appreciated.

What do you need?
Archives for a single location?
All archives for a single time or time period?
Link




Weather456 ! go here
Quoting atmoaggie:

What do you need?
Archives for a single location?
All archives for a single time or time period?


archives of a specific area for a single time.

For examples, the ship and buoys obs for April 24 2009 in the South China Sea. Just an example, but something along those lines.
This has to be a good thing...maybe SREF will be a little more relevant soon.

Email:"NCEP Model Evaluation Subscribers,


The Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) has proposed an upgrade to the Short Range Ensemble Forecast system (SREF). The model changes include: 1. Three of the four models used in the SREF (NMM, ARW and RSM) will be upgraded in model version (NMM and ARW from WRF V2.0 to WRF V2.2 and RSM from V2003 to V2008) and increased from 40/45 Km to 32/35Km in horizontal resolution. The upgrade and increased resolution significantly improve the performance of each individual member. For example; reducing the temperature bias for WRF members and adding more spatial detail. As a result, better behaved probabilities are also achieved by increasing forecast sharpness for the ensemble as a whole. 2. Increase of WRF membership (NMM from 3 to 5 and ARW from 3 to 5) and reduction of ETA membership from 10 to 6 (members N3, N4, P3 and P4 are removed) 3. More physics diversity by switching from Zhao Cloud Scheme to Ferrier Cloud Scheme in 3 out of 5 RSM members. 4. Forecast output, GRIB, frequency will increase from 3-hourly to hourly for the first 39 hours. 5. Four new aviation products will be added to ensemble products, mean and variability: Icing Clear Air Turbulence Ceiling Flight Restriction 6. Three new products will be added to the individual member output for some members:
PBL Height, Richardson number = 0.25 Simulated composite reflectivity Echo Top, =18.3DBZ 7. Each SREF member BUFR output will be broken out into individual station time series.
*Near real time parallel data:* Beginning Monday, September 28, 2009, a consistent parallel feed of data will be available at:
FTP: ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/sref/para
HTTP: http://www.ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nccf/com/ofs/para
We will make the model output available for 15 days starting Monday, 28
September so that end-users of the SREF data can verify that no unforeseen changes have been introduced.

Any comments on this proposed change will be appreciated. Any feedback
you wish to provide during the evaluation period should be emailed to
NCEP.List.ModelEvalFeedback@noaa.gov prior to 16 October, 2009.

The Environmental Modeling Center, EMC, has a publicly available website which can provide users with more information concerning the SREF: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mesoscale.html

"

One thing about that gives pause, though. They are upgrading to WRF (ARW) version 2.2. WRF 3.0 came out more than a year ago and has been updated twice since. I know a lot of work goes into making those models operational and robust at NCEP, but geez.
Quoting xcool:
Link




Weather456 ! go here


do they have archives?
Link


try this one much better
Quoting Orcasystems:


I have been to Guam.. fantastic little place in the middle of no where. Its considered the middle class Japanese Hawaiian vacation spot.

I've been in Guam twice, just to change planes. I wsa on the way to a dive trip in Palau and Chuuk. Guam seemed like a very nice place. The airport is huge.

I also remember being surprised that my Nextel phone had coverage - Guam supports an iDEN network.

I worked at Motorola at the time, and actually found a minor bug in the phone. I kept trying to get them to send me back to test the fix, but couldn't make it happen. :(


Weather related: Anyone else in S. Florida notice that we've have a bunch of tiny, heavy storms the past few weeks? I'm used to things that cover a much wider area here.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 SEP 2009 Time : 171500 UTC
Lat : 16:12:47 N Lon : 110:22:02 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 937.8mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.7 5.8 5.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : 2.4mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -24.9C Cloud Region Temp : -69.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF



Quoting Weather456:


archives of a specific area for a single time.

For examples, the ship and buoys obs for April 24 2009 in the South China Sea. Just an example, but something along those lines.

Yeah, that is one thing the NDBC site sure could do better.
If I had to do it, I would download all of the archives for the month from each relevant platform, then have to write a program to pull out the parameters I wanted for the times I wanted. Easily a day of work using some pieces of code I already have (mostly proprietary, too). Starting from nothing, that would take a few days unless you happen to be an Excel genius, then only 2 days, maybe.
Not to mention that this only applies to data from NDBC, which is only data from NOAA-owned systems and others that the platform owner has graciously shared the data for.

If you really are looking for data in the south China Sea, you are probably screwed. Not even NDBC has any data there. Probably because China lays claim to that body of water, in general, and is not interested in us (anyone else, really) having any data there.
From what I am seeing TD 18W should get close to Guam in a few days, could be some good radar shots out of there
Quoting atmoaggie:

Yeah, that is one thing the NDBC site sure could do better.
If I had to do it, I would download all of the archives for the month from each relevant platform, then have to write a program to pull out the parameters I wanted for the times I wanted. Easily a day of work using some pieces of code I already have (mostly proprietary, too). Starting from nothing, that would take a few days unless you happen to be an Excel genius, then only 2 days, maybe.
Not to mention that this only applies to data from NDBC, which is only data from NOAA-owned systems and others that the platform owner has graciously shared the data for.

If you really are looking for data in the south China Sea, you are probably screwed. Not even NDBC has any data there. Probably because China lays claim to that body of water, in general, and is not interested in us having any data there.


ok



from raleighwx.easternuswx
WOW, Typhoon Ketsana, according to the CIMSS report has 123MPH winds, if their assessment is accurate.

Hopefully, the Vietnamese government gets the word out and QUICK, their window of opportunity to evacuate is quickly running out!!
The science behind the 'hockey stick' climate graph made famous by Mann, et al, comes into some serious scrutiny.

Sorry about the wall of text, but this synopsis was buried down in the comments section.
From Wattsupwiththat:

In a nutshell:

1- In 1998 a paper is published by Dr. Michael Mann. Then at the University of Virginia, now a Penn State climatologist, and co-authors Bradley and Hughes. The paper is named: Northern Hemisphere Temperatures During the Past Millennium: Inferences, Uncertainties, and Limitations. The paper becomes known as MBH98.

The conclusion of tree ring reconstruction of climate for the past 1000 years is that we are now in the hottest period in modern history, ever.

See the graph http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/image/mann/manna_99.gif

Steve McIntyre, a Canadian mathematician in Toronto, suspects tree rings aren't telling a valid story with that giant uptick at the right side of the graph, implicating the 20th century as the hottest period in 1000 years, which alarmists latch onto as proof of AGW. The graph is dubbed as the Hockey Stick and becomes famous worldwide. Al Gore uses it in his movie An Inconvenient Truth in the famous elevator scene.

2- Steve attempts to replicate Michael Mann's tree ring work in the paper MBH98, but is stymied by lack of data archiving. He sends dozens of letters over the years trying to get access to data but access is denied. McIntyre and Ross McKitrick, of the University of Guelph publish a paper in 2004 criticizing the work. A new website is formed in 2004 called Real Climate, by the people who put together the tree ring data and they denounce the scientific criticism:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/false-claims-by-mcintyre-and-mckitrick-regard ing-the-mann-et-al-1998reconstruction/

3- Years go by. McIntyre is still stymied trying to get access to the original source data so that he can replicate the Mann 1998 conclusion. In 2008 Mann publishes another paper in bolstering his tree ring claim due to all of the controversy surrounding it. A Mann co-author and source of tree ring data (Professor Keith Briffa of the Hadley UK Climate Research Unit) used one of the tree ring data series (Yamal in Russia) in a paper published in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society in 2008, which has a strict data archiving policy. Thanks to that policy, Steve McIntyre fought and won access to that data just last week.

4- Having the Yamal data in complete form, McIntyre replicates it, and discovers that one of Mann's co-authors, Briffa, had cherry picked 10 trees data sets out of a much larger set of trees sampled in Yamal.

5- When all of the tree ring data from Yamal is plotted, the famous hockey stick disappears. Not only does it disappear, but goes negative. The conclusion is inescapable. The tree ring data was hand picked to get the desired result.

These are the relevant graphs from McIntyre showing what the newly available data demonstrates.

http://www.climateaudit.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/rcs_chronologies1.gif

http://www.climateaudit.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/rcs_merged.gif
Quoting HurricaneKing:


This is going to be fun. Good luck.


you too man, I'm totally pumped for it!
El Nino/La Nina update. from
Allan HuffmanRaleigh Weather Examiner




El Nino/La Nina Update
“Region 3.4 holding in weak El Nino range”

Since the middle of June the sst departure in region 3.4 has essentially held steady, oscillating between 0.7 and 0.9 or solidly in the weak category. This week the anomaly dropped 0.1C back down to 0.8C, so in essence if you use this measuring tool to quantify El Nino, we have seen little change through the summer and into the early Fall. There are some changes going on though across the equatorial Pacific as a whole. As I mentioned in the past, the ENSO area in the Pacific is classified into 4 zones. Region 3.4 is right in the middle of this region near the dateline and is usually used as the primary indicator since it encompasses some territory in both the east and west. In recent weeks the eastern regions of the ENSO region has been cooling and now the area of water right off the coast of South American (Region 1.2) is actually cooler than normal for the first time since March. Meanwhile the central and western regions remain solidly in the weak El Nino range. What does it mean? Well traditionally, though not always, an El Nino centered more towards the dateline is a good think for cold and snow lovers in the eastern US. Right now, I think this El Nino event peaks out in the next 2 months in the 0.9 to 1.2 range. Many of the SST models are showing a peak in the low moderate range. And while some have argued that El Nino is not the cause of the weak and inactive tropical season, the stats don’t lie that El Nino is linked to an inactive hurricane season for whatever physical reason it is. So far we are sitting on 6 named storms, and I think 8 may about do it.





Quoting presslord:


if it helps...it's really nice here today...

btw...tell him Hugo actually hit NORTHeast of Charleston...


alright, will do, press
Afternoon all.......LOOKS like the invasion of the Shear is taking over the Atlantic in 3 days

live view of the Engineering Fountain at Purdue link, pretty windy and cold out today

This is compliments of the Vietnam Hydro-Meteorological Service on Typhoon Katsana, approx 10 AM CDT 9-28-09

Feedback 22 hours on September 28, located in the center of the storm at about 16.0 degrees North Latitude; 110.7 degrees East Business, the coast of Thua Thien-Hue - Quang Nam province about 240km to the east. In the strongest winds near the center of the storm power supply 13 (ie from 134 to 149 km per hour), shock level 14, level 15, and directly influence the waters of the provinces from Quang Tri to Quang Ngai and the area south Gulf of Tonkin.



Forecast for 24 hours, 9 storm moved towards the west and north-west Western, per hour to about 10 - 15km and influence directly to the provinces from Ha Tinh to Quang Ngai. To 22 hours on 29 / 9, located at the center of the storm at about 16.4 degrees latitude, 107.6 degrees East Business, on land of Quang Tri - Da Nang. The strongest winds near the storm center power supply 12 (ie from 118 to 133 km an hour), shock level 13, level 14. From the center of the storm the winds dangerous levels 10 and over a radius of about 150 km, from grade 6 and over a radius of 350 km.

Within the next 24 to 48 hours, 9 storm moved towards the west and northwest Western, per hour to about 10-15 km. To 22 hours on 30 / 9, located at the center of the storm at about 16.8 degrees latitude, 105.0 degrees East Economy, the Central Laos. The strongest winds near the center of the storm power level 8 (ie from 62 to 74 km per hour), shock level 9. Calculated from the center of the storm winds dangerous level 6 and over a radius of about 150 km.

Within the next 48 to 72 hours, 9 storm moved towards the west and north-west Western, per hour to about 10 km, continue to go deeper into the mainland and weakened into a low pressure area over East Northern Thailand. To 22 hours on January 10, central location in the low pressure at about 17.2 degrees latitude, 102.7 degrees East Economy. Strongest winds the low pressure level falls below 6 (ie below 39 km an hour).

Because the impact of storms, the sea west of the North and the South China Sea (including the waters of the Paracel Islands), which winds for 11, level 12, near the center of the storm passing through level 13, level shock 14, level 15. Intense fluctuations. South Bay and the waters of the Northern provinces from Quang Tri to Quang Ngai with winds level 9, level 10, the increased level 11, level 12, near the center of the storm passing through level 13, shock level 14, level 15 . Intense fluctuations. Provinces from Quang Binh to Quang Men 8 levels of wind power, the increased level 9, level 10, near the center of the storm passing through level 11, level 12, shock level 13, level 14. From early on (29 / 9), in the provinces of Thanh Hoa, Nghe An, Ha Tinh, Quang Ngai, Kon Tum strong winds will gradually to levels 6, level 7, the increased level 8, shock level 9, level 10 . Coastal provinces from Thanh Hoa to Thua Thien Hue precautions to sea level rise with high tides from the 3 -- 5m. In the provinces from Thanh Hoa to Binh Dinh and the Central Highlands rain to the very large. Necessary precautions flash floods and landslides in the mountains, flooding in the valley.

Besides the effects associated with southwest monsoon active, the area between the South China Sea and sea of Binh Thuan - Ca Mau winds sixth grade, seventh grade, eighth grade shock. Sea powerful.

90. "cold"...what's that? LOL
Quoting pearlandaggie:
90. "cold"...what's that? LOL


haha well high of 58 tomorrow with winds up to 40 mph
93. i wouldn't know...we won't see those kind of temperatures for a couple of more months! LOL
Quoting pearlandaggie:
93. i wouldn't know...we won't see those kind of temperature for a couple of more months! LOL


haha dang!

96. IKE
Afternoon discussion from Tallahassee,FL...

"SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
PATTERN BECOMING AMPLIFIED WITH TROUGH IN THE EAST...RIDGE IN THE
WEST...AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND TROUGH COMING ASHORE IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS...WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE MAY BECOME GUSTY
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO TEMPS OVER THE SHORT
TERM. TONIGHT...60-65...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AROUND 50.
HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY 80-85 AND WEDNESDAY...AROUND 80. LOOKS LIKE
DELIGHTFUL WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE REGION."
Link

ECMWF MODEL.
Quoting IKE:
Afternoon discussion from Tallahassee,FL...

"SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
PATTERN BECOMING AMPLIFIED WITH TROUGH IN THE EAST...RIDGE IN THE
WEST...AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND TROUGH COMING ASHORE IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS...WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE MAY BECOME GUSTY
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO TEMPS OVER THE SHORT
TERM. TONIGHT...60-65...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AROUND 50.
HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY 80-85 AND WEDNESDAY...AROUND 80. LOOKS LIKE
DELIGHTFUL WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE REGION."


hope you guys enjoy it!
99. IKE
Quoting xcool:
Link

ECMWF MODEL.


And once again, it shows zilch through October 8th.
101. IKE
Quoting tornadodude:


hope you guys enjoy it!


Oh I will.

Cold front has made it down to central-Alabama. It'll be here by sunset....

102. xcool
IKE yep.;)
Quoting IKE:


Oh I will.

Cold front has made it down to central-Alabama. It'll be here by sunset....



yeah, it is pretty intense
104. xcool
temp 40 in slidell this weekend yay
WXTLIST WMO=ABPW10
ABPW10 PGTW 281730 2009271 1710
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/281730Z-290600ZSEP2009//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281353ZSEP2009//
REF/B/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281352ZSEP2009//
REF/C/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281351ZSEP2009//
NARR/REFS A, B AND C ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 281200Z, TROPICAL STORM 19W (NINETEEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR
9.3N 142.8E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM, AND HAD
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN33 PGTW 281500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AT 281200Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 9.3N 153.9E, APPROXIMATELY 590 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, AND
HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 281500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) AT 281200Z, TYPHOON 17W (KETSANA) WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N
111.0E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM EAST OF HUE VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS GUSTING TO 110
KNOTS. SEE REF C (WTPN31 PGTW 281500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(4) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.0N
168.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.9N 165.1E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KWAJALAIN. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING ABOUT A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 281434Z TRMM IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FORMING
ALONG FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC.
A 280651Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS 20KT UNFLAGGED WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM NEAR AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE THAT IS PROVIDING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPRGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO FAIR
AND UPDATED AREAS IN PARA 1.//
WXTLIST: done
Quoting IKE:
Afternoon discussion from Tallahassee,FL...



108. IKE
Quoting tornadodude:


yeah, it is pretty intense


Winds have picked up here from the west. Gusting to 20 mph. Leaves and acorns are falling off of the trees.
Quoting IKE:


Winds have picked up here from the west. Gusting to 20 mph. Leaves and acorns are falling off of the trees.


yeah, pretty dang windy here too
WXTLIST WMO=AXPZ20
AXPZ20 KNHC 281603 2009271 1604
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON SEP 28 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 85W MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.
...ITCZ...
AXIS WAS ALONG 08N86W TO 13N104W TO 13N115W TO 15N128W TO
14N138W. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED MODERATE WAS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
TO THIS AREA...AND COULD BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE S AMERICAN
MONSOONAL CIRCULATION AS MUCH AS A TROPICAL WAVE.
...DISCUSSION...
W OF 100W...
LARGE SW-NE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED NEAR 28N138W WITH ASSOCIATED BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW N OF
18-20N BETWEEN 120W AND 150W. THE TYPICAL BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
FIELD ACROSS THE COOL WATERS OF THE PACIFIC...CURRENTLY N OF 20N
AND W OF 134W...IS BEING ENHANCED UNDERNEATH THE SE QUADRANT OF
THIS UPPER LOW...YIELDING SCATTERED AREAS OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND STRATIFORM PRECIP...POSSIBLY WITH VERY ISOLATED ELEVATED
CONVECTION...N OF 24N AND BETWEEN 130N AND 139W. AN ASSOCIATED
55-65 KT SUBTROPICAL JET LIES ON THE SE SIDE OF THIS CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION...EXTENDING THROUGH 21N129W TO 29N114W. THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION WILL DIG SLOWLY SE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY SSW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A BROAD OMEGA
BLOCKING PATTERN BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE MID LATITUDES OF
N AMERICA. THIS PATTERN ALOFT WILL ALSO PREVENT THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH FROM REBUILDING SUBSTANTIALLY OVER NW WATERS AND SHOULD
GENERALLY KEEP TRADE WINDS LIGHT.
DOWNSTREAM...A RATHER FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED SE OF
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND EXTENDED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
WWD ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO AND THEN SW UNDERNEATH THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE TO ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 13N150W.
GENERALLY DRY AND SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS COULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND ACROSS THE NW AND NRN FLANKS OF
THE RIDGE...JUST SE OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET. A TUTT LOW WAS
EVIDENT ALONG 94W MOVING W ACROSS SRN MEXICO AND THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND IGNITING SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTIVE CELLS ACROSS THE
EPAC IN ITS SE QUADRANT.
A LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED FROM ACROSS THE
FAR W CARIB...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THEN S CENTRAL MEXICO AND
THE ADJACENT PACIFIC HAS AIDED IN THE INITIATION OF A LARGE
CLUSTER OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE W COAST OF MEXICO
THAT HAS LINGERED THROUGH THIS MORNING UNDERNEATH EXCELLENT
UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER HIGH 21N105W...PART OF
THE ABOVE UPPER RIDGE. BROAD AND WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING ALSO
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS ALSO INITIATING
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION JUST OFFSHORE
OF THE MEXICAN COAST S OF 12N BETWEEN 99W AND 109W. GLOBAL
MODELS HAS BEEN SUGGESTING IN RECENT DAYS THAT THIS AREA OF
CYCLONIC TURNING AND ACTIVE CONVECTION MAY YIELD AN ORGANIZED
LOW IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES OFF TO THE
WNW. SOME OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW TO MID LEVEL
TROUGH IS ASSUMED TO HAVE ORIGINATED OVER AFRICA AND WAS A
PORTION OF A LONG AGO FRACTURED TROPICAL WAVE.
AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDED FROM A 1041 MB LOW
NEAR 45N157W SE TO OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 20N11W. THE
REMNANT LOW OF NORA...1009 MB...WAS CENTERED NEAR
17.5N130W...MOVING SLOWLY WSW...AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW.
THE ITCZ CONTINUED TO BE QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS SEVERAL ZONES IN
THE AREA...UNDER GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. SEVERAL WAVES AND
PERTURBATIONS WAS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ...A TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 85W...ANOTHER WAVE ALONG 105/106W...THE REMNANT LOW OF
NORA ALONG 130W...AND ANOTHER ALONG 139W.
$$
STRIPLING
WXTLIST: done
Quoting xcool:
temp 40 in slidell this weekend yay

Don't know where you saw that, but don't hold your breath. 60 is likely...40? Fuggedaboudit.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Don't know where you saw that, but don't hold your breath. 60 is likely...40? Fuggedaboudit.


60?

Its forecasted to be a low of 62 in Central Florida on Wednesday night, so yea I could see 40s further north
So, is the hurricane season pretty much or what?
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


60?

Its forecasted to be a low of 62 in Central Florida on Wednesday night, so yea I could see 40s further north


the coolest I see is 57. 60 pretty much all across the board for Slidell link
The wind is crazy over here all because of that pesky cold front.
Quoting TexasHurricane:
So, is the hurricane season pretty much or what?


Hurricane Season will be over in 2 months ;)
Quoting Ameister12:
The wind is crazy over here all because of that pesky cold front.


Wind here is sustained at 30 mph gusts to 43 mph
Quoting TexasHurricane:
So, is the hurricane season pretty much or what?


From Wikipedia:

The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season is an event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation. The season officially started on June 1 and will end on November 30.

There is your answer
Quoting TexasHurricane:
So, is the hurricane season pretty much or what?


i'm sure other people with take "what", but i'll take "pretty much"! LOL
Complete WESTERN PACIFIC GRAPHICS UPDATE
Typhoon Ketsana STORM TRACK:

Tropical Storm Nineteen STORM TRACK:

Tropical Depression Eighteen STORM TRACK:
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


From Wikipedia:

The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season is an event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation. The season officially started on June 1 and will end on November 30.

There is your answer


there's a difference between when a season is officially over, and when it's over for all practical purposes.

take, for example, the tampa bay buccaneers. their season is over for all practical purposes, but officially it goes on for another 13 weeks plus a bye week.
It's really bringing back memories to see all the people from the deep south so excited about a nice cold front...here in Kansas City, we had such a non-summer this year, I'm not really that thrilled about a windy day in the 60s. I could go for some more unseasonable warmth.
Quoting rwdobson:
It's really bringing back memories to see all the people from the deep south so excited about a nice cold front...here in Kansas City, we had such a non-summer this year, I'm not really that thrilled about a windy day in the 60s. I could go for some more unseasonable warmth.


same here in the northeast,thats all I've seen is cold fronts
Quoting pearlandaggie:


i'm sure other people with take "what", but i'll take "pretty much"! LOL


I have three names for you:

Juan
Kate
Wilma

All three bad storms, all three after October 15th of their repsective years...Juan and Kate were after significant cold fronts had traversed the Southeast and Wilma after the temps in SE Louisiana (where I was living at the time) were averaging the mid 50s every day...I'm definitely a "what" man
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


From Wikipedia:

The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season is an event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation. The season officially started on June 1 and will end on November 30.

There is your answer


remember a storm not to far ago.."wilma" hitting sfla oct 26.....hurricane season till nov.30
Quoting Floodman:


I have three names for you:

Juan
Kate
Wilma

All three bad storms, all three after October 15th of their repsective years...Juan and Kate were after significant cold fronts had traversed the Southeast and Wilma after the temps in SE Louisiana (where I was living at the time) were averaging the mid 50s every day...I'm definitely a "what" man


Hey,Flood,
Some people need to keep getting reminded,things can happen even in October.Even if its been a quiet season.All it takes is one period when the environment gets less hostile.
We made it through the peak of this season in the Atlantic without a major cane affecting land regardless of whether we have a few more or none at all this year between now and November......That is a Blessing given the hits that the Caribbean/Florida/Gulf have had the last several years......It's nice to get a break this year for a change.
For those of you with high humidity, the dewpoint here is 38 ha
Quoting IKE:


Winds have picked up here from the west. Gusting to 20 mph. Leaves and acorns are falling off of the trees.
really windy here lots of leves all over the place had a inch and a half of rain so far today now we are in the low centre will sun shining but not for long as the backside of the low has yet to past by 61 with winds gusting over 40 mph at times once the sun sets should cool off quickly
Quoting Floodman:


I have three names for you:

Juan
Kate
Wilma

All three bad storms, all three after October 15th of their repsective years...Juan and Kate were after significant cold fronts had traversed the Southeast and Wilma after the temps in SE Louisiana (where I was living at the time) were averaging the mid 50s every day...I'm definitely a "what" man


Add Hazel to that list also
Quoting Floodman:


I have three names for you:

Juan
Kate
Wilma

All three bad storms, all three after October 15th of their repsective years...Juan and Kate were after significant cold fronts had traversed the Southeast and Wilma after the temps in SE Louisiana (where I was living at the time) were averaging the mid 50s every day...I'm definitely a "what" man


don't read too much into my post...it wasn't a prediction, just poking fun at the lack of coherence in the original post since the word "over" was omitted! LOL
Hi guys......

:)
Quoting NRAamy:
Hi guys......

:)


good afternoon :P
129. yeah, yeah, yeah...stick it! LOL i hope your fingers split open from the low humidity! ;p
Quoting pearlandaggie:
129. yeah, yeah, yeah...stick it! LOL i hope your fingers split open from the low humidity! ;p


haha it feels amazing out, supposed to be 58 tomorrow, and a low of 40 thursday morning
Just in looking at the satellite image tornadodude posted, the entire Atlantic basin looks very much in a more typical late October/early November weather pattern with deep troughs and fronts exiting off the US East Coast and deep troughs nudging down into the MDR. Not going to see anything happening in the tropics if this pattern continues.
138. yeah, keep rubbing it in! it's so moist around here that i went outside to get some air and only found water!
Quoting pearlandaggie:
138. yeah, keep rubbing it in! it's so moist around here that i went outside to get some air and only found water!


haha time for a swim?
My crystal ball says we might have one more something_to_watch between October 10th - 20th. Just basing this chance on MJO forecast, a hunch, and one of my vivid ESP-like dreams. :-)
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Afternoon All.

Any recent info on 14N 69W? Looks suspect


Afternoon. Is interesting looking but, shear..

Link
141. and i wasn't even in my pool! LOL
Hi.

What happened to the hippo?
Can't wait for Jan/Feb tornadodude.

Will feel for you while I'm in the pool and it's 75 out. :)
146. this is true! LOL
Quoting rwdobson:


there's a difference between when a season is officially over, and when it's over for all practical purposes.

take, for example, the tampa bay buccaneers. their season is over for all practical purposes, but officially it goes on for another 13 weeks plus a bye week.


Just in case TS missed it. LOLOLOL.
Quoting pearlandaggie:
141. and i wasn't even in my pool! LOL


haha nice!
Quoting Seastep:
Can't wait for Jan/Feb tornadodude.

Will feel for you while I'm in the pool and it's 75 out. :)


haha yeah, and it will be 5 here with -30 windchill and ten inches of snow
the hippo is on vacation....she took my credit card and flew to Tahiti....damn her....
Japan Meteorological Agency

Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
==========================================

Subject: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea

At 3:00 AM JST, Typhoon Ketsana (960 hPa) located at 16.0N 110.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving west at 8 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Size of Typhoon: Large

Storm-Force Winds
===============
90 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
===============
475 NM from the center in south quadrant
325 NM from the center in north quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 16.1N 108.7E - 50 kts (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 16.6N 107.3E - Tropical Depression

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Warning
=========================
Now Subjected To A Tropical Cyclone Warning (17W)

System #2
------------

Japan Meteorological Agency

Tropical Disturbance Summary (1200z 28SEPT)
==========================================

At 21:00 PM JST, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 9.0N 154.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots and is reported as moving west slowly

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Warning
===============================================
Now Subjected To A Tropical Cyclone Warning (18W)

System #3
-----------

Japan Meteorological Agency

Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
==========================================

Subject: Tropical Depression Near Caroline Islands

At 3:00 AM JST, Tropical Depression (998 hPa) located at 9.0N 141.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 12 knots

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 10.1N 138.4E - 35 kts (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Warning
==========================
Is Now Subjected To A Tropical Cyclone Warning (19W)

System #4
----------

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (1730z 28SEPT)
=============================================
An area of convection (90W) located at 5.9N 165.1E or 230 NM southwest of Kwajalain Atoll. Animated infrared imagery shows deep convection consolidating about a developing low level circulation center. A 1434z TRMM Image shows deep convection forming along fragmented banding wrapping into the western side of the low level circulation center. A 0651z Quikscat Pass shows 20 knot unflagged winds on the southern side of an elongated circulation embedded in the monsoon trough. Upper level analysis shows the system near an upper level anticyclone that is providing good poleward outflow and low vertical wind shear.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 15-20 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1006 MB. The potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is UPGRADED TO FAIR.

---
Well im off to work, have a good evening all! (:
Dewpoint right now is 58 over my house with an air temperature of 90 under sunny skies(as opposed to the same temperature with a 72 degree dewpoint). Dewpoints will be dropping as low as around 40 by the time the second front sweeps through around Central Florida.

Models are notorious for underestimating this dry air evection(behind the second front). They get it wrong almost every time!

The only place not to get a break is the Florida Keys and Deep South Texas(Brownsville) However, next week even they will get their share I would think.
Actually not bad right now here. 81 partly cloudy. Light breeze has a little chill to it.

I freeze when it gets anywhere below 70, so I'm all good right now. Humidity could be less, though. 71%
My dewpoint is still at 71, but it's much better than it has been.
India Meteorological Department
Chief Meteorological Forecast
17:30 PM IST September 28 2009
=================================

The low pressure area over west central Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood persists
Quoting Seastep:


Afternoon. Is interesting looking but, shear..

Link


Thanks for the response. No time to look myself. Shear Rules.
First front of the year coming. Low 80's on Wednesday. Low humidity, zero chance of rain, 100% chance of golf. wooo!!!


Nadi Meteorological Services
Marine Bulletin
6:00 AM FST September 29 2009
==================================

CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ 03S 160E TO LOW (92P) [1000HPA] NEAR 04S 165E TO 06S 175W 08S 170W 11S 160W 15S 154W 20S 151W 25S 151W SLOW MOVING.

Quoting NRAamy:
the hippo is on vacation....she took my credit card and flew to Tahiti....damn her....


Howdy Amy...so why didn't you go with her? You could use some down time, huh?
Quoting pearlandaggie:


don't read too much into my post...it wasn't a prediction, just poking fun at the lack of coherence in the original post since the word "over" was omitted! LOL


I figured; you're one of the level-headed ones in here, dude!
Japan Meteorological Agency

Tropical Disturbance Summary (1800z 28SEPT)
==========================================

At 3:00 AM JST, Tropical Depression (1000 hPa) located at 9.0N 152.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots and is reported as moving west at 15 knots

---
JTWC 18W with JMA data.. still 25 kts (10 min)
HGW - the WPAC has you busy all the sudden, eh?
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Afternoon All.

Any recent info on 14N 69W? Looks suspect
shear is the name of the game nada
tornadofan yup, that I am just posting the main JMA advisories (06z, 12z, 18z, and 00z) on my blog not the intermediate ones.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2045
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN VA INTO CNTRL NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
Radar FCX
looking at the satellite images of the atlantic,and it looks more like a november pattern then september,not going to see much organizing in that kind of pattern
Looks like a good chance of sever storms setting up for Thursday over parts of Kanasa, Oklahoma and Texas. Could be a very intresting day.
Quoting tropics21:
shear is the name of the game nada


Shear relaxes over the next 36 to about 10knts; it's only a pocket but it does get better further west as the week progresses
Quoting NEwxguy:
looking at the satellite images of the atlantic,and it looks more like a november pattern then september,not going to see much organizing in that kind of pattern


We may see a a change in pattern with the MJO due to turn upward; typically it's about this time of year that you see features forming further south and west...but why am I telling YOU that? LOL
Quoting Floodman:


We may see a a change in pattern with the MJO due to turn upward; typically it's about this time of year that you see features forming further south and west...but why am I telling YOU that? LOL


LOL,my tropical season is over,but still interesting to see if anything forms south,next month I start watching off the east coast for my own storms.
Quoting NEwxguy:


LOL,my tropical season is over,but still interesting to see if anything forms south,next month I start watching off the east coast for my own storms.


Yep, it's about that time, huh?
Tropical Storm 19W (Pre-PEPENG)

---
PAGASA tropical cyclone watch!!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/loop-rgb.html

South S E of Baja: "insta-TD"?
Okay, gone for a while...


"Pepeng" (19W) CMC model track takes it near northern Philippines.
aw

I killed the blog again
hey Jerry!

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


For those of you bored, check out the comments section for the Comedy
Quoting reedzone:


Hurricane Season will be over in 2 months ;)


yeah, I know when it officially ends (ha ha)....just seems that by wind shear,mjo, etc.....things don't seem to be in play. Is any of this suppose to change anytime soon?
Good Afternoon all

Good afternoon 456
I'm out for now.
Quoting Seastep:
Good afternoon 456


Afternoon my friend, I'm hoping you had a more interesting day than the blog has :)
456 - Yep. Quiet in the tropical atlantic.

Getting a lot of work done! But, that is make-up for the times I let it slip a little when there's something out there and I can't pull myself away. :)
Now, really out. Might be on later.
Its now 92f in Pcola. Can't wait for the early cold front...

Forecast to be 62f overnight :-) !!!
Evening everyone...

Season aint over until Dec. 1. Yes, chances are less now, but not "zero".

I hope that cold front makes it down to Miami. The rain storm we just had felt like a cold front storm. Wow, talk about rain and street flooding.
192. JLPR
wow the Atlantic is so quiet I have been able to stay away from the blog the whole day xD
193. amd
weather about 100 miles due west of the center of typhoon ketsana

Da Nang, VS (Airport)
Updated: 20 min 34 sec ago
Rain
77 °F
Rain
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 48 mph from the North
Wind Gust: 60 mph
Pressure: 29.18 in (Steady)

Visibility: 1.2 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 700 ft
Scattered Clouds 1000 ft
Mostly Cloudy 5000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 23 ft
I have a question if I may...

I'm in an area which is expecting a 30f degree drop by morning (no complaints) but isn't a rapid temperature change like that normally accompanied by increased winds as the front moves through? It would be nice to have a breezy cool evening here!!!
druseljic,

In my non-meteorological mind it makes perfect sense to me and it usually happens down in South Florida.
Tropical Storm forced winds now affecting the coast of Vietnam, winds now sustain at 48 mph and gusting to 60 mph





Quoting Floodman:


I have three names for you:

Juan
Kate
Wilma

All three bad storms, all three after October 15th of their repsective years...Juan and Kate were after significant cold fronts had traversed the Southeast and Wilma after the temps in SE Louisiana (where I was living at the time) were averaging the mid 50s every day...I'm definitely a "what" man
Also don't forget to add Paloma to your list (Nov 7th-9th 2008.Direct hit on Cayman Brac as a Cat3 hurricane)
Quoting Dakster:
druseljic,

In my non-meteorological mind it makes perfect sense to me and it usually happens down in South Florida.


I was born and spent my younger years in MD/
PA and I remember whenever we would have a rapid temperature change it was always pretty windy the day before. It's just been so calm here with just a slight breeze and since the blog was so slow today thought I'd ask and learn something... thanks for responding!
Quoting druseljic:


I was born and spent my younger years in MD/
PA and I remember whenever we would have a rapid temperature change it was always pretty windy the day before. It's just been so calm here with just a slight breeze and since the blog was so slow today thought I'd ask and learn something... thanks for responding!


No problem. Most of the time in South Florida a cold front comes in after a nice rain storm. It usually doesn't arrive with it, which is why we rarely get snow here. (It does get cold enough to snow in Miami almost every year, but doesn't because the front usually brings dry air and clear skies) I am not sure if this is the same for North Florida.
200. amd
interesting observations with typhoon ketsana:

eye has become cloud filled, and MAY be moving just south of due west.

However, convection is increasing, and ketsana is very symmetrical for the 1st time in its lifetime (in terms of convection).

Ketsana AVN LOOP
201. JLPR
The only interesting area in the Atlantic basin xD
202. JLPR
Fujiwara effect?
Link
It looks like our "little boy" (El Nino) had a bigger punch than expected. "Expected" is the new word for "previously forcasted" and continues to echo through the usual peak month of hurricane season in the Atlantic. I suppose if I was lving in the Phillipines I would be wishing for a little less in tropical weather, but they just got dumped on by a lowly (but soaking) TS, I wonder what De Nang will get.
It looks like the Pacific will get bragging rights this year, a dubious honor true, but mother nature's roll of the dice has the card counting meteorologists keeping their bets low and they have been holding their hands close to their vests. Sure is different than '05 when someone sneezed in Africa and it turned into a Cape Verde storm.
So, looking back will we say it was a slow year, or a slow starter?
Inquiring minds wanna know.
A deep occluded low is bringing a surge of cool air to the upper Mid-west, and generating gusty winds and choppy seas across the Great Lakes. This shot was a view of Lake Erie; located approximately 11 miles east of Cleveland, OH. You can tell the cyclone has occluded in the IR satellite below as the low is now surrounded by the entire cold airmass indicating the cold front has wrapped all the way around.







Quoting amd:
interesting observations with typhoon ketsana:

eye has become cloud filled, and MAY be moving just south of due west.

However, convection is increasing, and ketsana is very symmetrical for the 1st time in its lifetime (in terms of convection).

Ketsana AVN LOOP


yep, I'm seeing all those observations too. I was amaze how symmetric it really has became despite the eye disappearing.
Quoting amd:
interesting observations with typhoon ketsana:

eye has become cloud filled, and MAY be moving just south of due west.

However, convection is increasing, and ketsana is very symmetrical for the 1st time in its lifetime (in terms of convection).

Link


True. I really feel sorry for Vietnam! Typhoon Katsana has been hovering in the high CAT 2 stage all day, around 105MPH. She's moving W at about 11MPH.

Vietnam has 84 million people living there. Many small to medium sized villages scattered throughout that region of the country. There are mountains about 60MI inland and many of those villages/cities are going to experience MAJOR flash flooding.

I've never been there, from what I read, it's an emerging small third world country! The Hydro-Meteorological Centre has done a GREAT job of broadcasting advisories.

The $64,000 question is, "How many people in that impoverished region have heard and how many of them are evacuating to sturdy structures outside the danger area"? I'm not sure how often Vietnam gets hit with Typhoons, but they're GOING TO GET HIT HARD!

We need to keep them in our prayers, that they will be safe. The Typhoon is within 8-12 HRS of landfall, at the current foward speed.
Dakster- same here(north florida). Warm Temps, thunder, lightning, heavy rain...then it all dries up in an hour or two, and our temps plummet.

we get cold enough to snow, but the rain and the cold never come together enough.
Quoting druseljic:
I have a question if I may...

I'm in an area which is expecting a 30f degree drop by morning (no complaints) but isn't a rapid temperature change like that normally accompanied by increased winds as the front moves through? It would be nice to have a breezy cool evening here!!!
aquak9 - good to know and thanks...
A taste of fall/winter along the Great Lakes region

Evening everybody.

Interesting to see the board still on the first page (i.e. under 200 posts) for a workday Monday.... :o)

We had some rainy weather last night and this morning associated with a frontal passage. It still seems strange to have had most of our weather coming towards us from the NW instead of the SE. Usually we don't see that kind of pattern until November and December, when there is generally less associated rain....
Quoting Weather456:
A taste of fall/winter along the Great Lakes region

LOL Milwalkee's temp is currently half what Phoenix is!!!

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


For those of you bored, check out the comments section for the Comedy
Quoting Bordonaro:


True. I really feel sorry for Vietnam! Typhoon Katsana has been hovering in the high CAT 2 stage all day, around 105MPH. She's moving W at about 11MPH.

Vietnam has 84 million people living there. Many small to medium sized villages scattered throughout that region of the country. There are mountains about 60MI inland and many of those villages/cities are going to experience MAJOR flash flooding.

I've never been there, from what I read, it's an emerging small third world country! The Hydro-Meteorological Centre has done a GREAT job of broadcasting advisories.

The $64,000 question is, "How many people in that impoverished region have heard and how many of them are evacuating to sturdy structures outside the danger area"? I'm not sure how often Vietnam gets hit with Typhoons, but they're GOING TO GET HIT HARD!

We need to keep them in our prayers, that they will be safe. The Typhoon is within 8-12 HRS of landfall, at the current foward speed.


I just talked to a friends across the street that has family in Vietnam. They just talked to them and there is already water in the house. In their case that is ten feet high just to get into the house. This house is concrete so should survive any winds. Flooding is another story. They don't know when they will be able to make contact after the storm passes through.
Quoting BahaHurican:
LOL Milwalkee's temp is currently half what Phoenix is!!!
Here in middle Tennessee it is excellent, upper 60,s. cool tonight in the 40,s. If you would, explain to me what it means to (kill the blog)....
Another question since the blog is still slow tonight.

The West Pacific is very active right now:

Link

Why are we seeing such a intense flareup for this particular region as opposed to others?
Many times here in South Florida a cold front literally "blows in". A few years back it was about 85 in the middle of the day, warm & sticky. I went to get my kids, and it started to cloud up, then the winds blew, gusts 30-35 mph, and in 30 minutes the temp dropped 18 degrees. Went from warm & sticky to wet and freezing in the amount of time it took to get the kids from school. Guess you can tell it stuck in my head.
218. amd
Quoting Bordonaro:


True. I really feel sorry for Vietnam! Typhoon Katsana has been hovering in the high CAT 2 stage all day, around 105MPH. She's moving W at about 11MPH.

Vietnam has 84 million people living there. Many small to medium sized villages scattered throughout that region of the country. There are mountains about 60MI inland and many of those villages/cities are going to experience MAJOR flash flooding.

I've never been there, from what I read, it's an emerging small third world country! The Hydro-Meteorological Centre has done a GREAT job of broadcasting advisories.

The $64,000 question is, "How many people in that impoverished region have heard and how many of them are evacuating to sturdy structures outside the danger area"? I'm not sure how often Vietnam gets hit with Typhoons, but they're GOING TO GET HIT HARD!

We need to keep them in our prayers, that they will be safe. The Typhoon is within 8-12 HRS of landfall, at the current foward speed.


I'm not sure about the media situation in vietnam, but I assume that along the coast, the coverage will be good enough to alert the public. However, inland could be a major issue. I don't see too much weakening with this typhoon before landfall, especially as the system becomes more symmetrical. Another caveat is that storm surge is becoming more of a threat along the coast, as the storm has most definitely jogged below 16 N (Da Nang, a major city in vietnam, is located at 16 N 108.2 W).

I just hope the Vietnamese are properly prepared for this system
must be quiet blog is down to 24 posts per hr soon it will be down to 10 or 15 per hr
if any one nhas not noted that we now can uplode 10 photos at one time with are new Photo MultiUpload i ues it for the 1st time and it works vary well
Quoting druseljic:
Another question since the blog is still slow tonight.

The West Pacific is very active right now:

Link

Why are we seeing such a intense flareup for this particular region as opposed to others?

I just noticed a fourth system behind 18L!
5PM JTWC Advisories:

Typhoon Ketsana
16.1N 109.9E
Winds:105 MPH
Movement:W at 9 MPH
Pressure:960 MB



Tropical Depression 18W
9.9N 152.7E
Winds:35 MPH
Movement:WNW at 10 MPH
Pressure:1000 MB



Tropical Storm 19W
9.2N 140.9E
Winds:40 MPH
Movement:W at 13 MPH
Pressure:998 MB



TCFA
8.5N 162.9E
Winds:30 MPH
Movement:NW at 17 MPH
Pressure:1004 MB



Quoting amd:


I'm not sure about the media situation in vietnam, but I assume that along the coast, the coverage will be good enough to alert the public. However, inland could be a major issue. I don't see too much weakening with this typhoon before landfall, especially as the system becomes more symmetrical. Another caveat is that storm surge is becoming more of a threat along the coast, as the storm has most definitely jogged below 16 N (Da Nang, a major city in vietnam, is located at 16 N 108.2 W).

I just hope the Vietnamese are properly prepared for this system


I need some help QUICK if anybody has info. I just talked to the family across the street and their family's house is about 10 min from the coast in Da Nang. The water they have in the house already is SALT WATER, which means surge is already starting. They think because they have a concrete house they are safe (think winds) but you and I know better when it comes to surge. Anyone with surge info?
Thanks, Dan
Typhoon Ketsana/Ondoy:





Dan,

Tell them to run! You know & I know how quickly water rises!
Quoting PcolaDan:


I need some help QUICK if anybody has info. I just talked to the family across the street and their family's house is about 10 min from the coast in Da Nang. The water they have in the house already is SALT WATER, which means surge is already starting. They think because they have a concrete house they are safe (think winds) but you and I know better when it comes to surge. Anyone with surge info?
Thanks, Dan
Sorry Beachy.
They're up the creek if they didn't get out of there!

Quoting superpete:
Also don't forget to add Paloma to your list (Nov 7th-9th 2008.Direct hit on Cayman Brac as a Cat3 hurricane)
Different Years different conditions this year no IMO
Sad, but probably true.
Quoting VortMax1969:
Sorry Beachy.
They're up the creek if they didn't get out of there!

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (2330z 28SEPT)
===============================================
An area of convection (90W) located at 8.5N 162.9E or 530 NM west of Kwajalein Atoll. Animated infrared imagery shows deep convection consolidating about a developing low level circulation center. A 1830z SSMIS image shows deep convection forming along fragmented banding wrapping into the western side of the low level circulation center. A 0651z Quikscat Pass shows 20-25 knot unflagged winds on the southern side of an elongated circulation embedded in the favorable eastern end of the monsoon trough. Upper level analysis shows the system near an upper level anticyclone that is providing good radial outflow and low vertical wind shear

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 17-22 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1004 MB

---
never seen this island mention much (Kwajalein Atoll)
Quoting amd:


I'm not sure about the media situation in vietnam, but I assume that along the coast, the coverage will be good enough to alert the public. However, inland could be a major issue. I don't see too much weakening with this typhoon before landfall, especially as the system becomes more symmetrical. Another caveat is that storm surge is becoming more of a threat along the coast, as the storm has most definitely jogged below 16 N (Da Nang, a major city in vietnam, is located at 16 N 108.2 W).

I just hope the Vietnamese are properly prepared for this system


I tried to access their local newspapers off the web, but was unable! Google does a good job of translating their webpage, plus there is an English option at this link below to their Hydro-Meteorolgical site:

Link

It is VERY SLOW!!!
233. amd
Quoting PcolaDan:


I need some help QUICK if anybody has info. I just talked to the family across the street and their family's house is about 10 min from the coast in Da Nang. The water they have in the house already is SALT WATER, which means surge is already starting. They think because they have a concrete house they are safe (think winds) but you and I know better when it comes to surge. Anyone with surge info?
Thanks, Dan


Paper on Storm Surge (page 3 has estimated surge)

One saving grace may be that surge on the Vietnam coast may be a bit lower around the Da Nang area.

179
TCNA21 RJTD 290000
CCAA 29000 47644 KETSANA(0916) 20155 11094 12334 250// 92409=

0:00 AM UTC September 29 2009

TY Ketsana (0916) [System #20]
15.5N 109.4E
Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

----
hmm no mention of Tropical Depression "21" yet.. unless it appears a little later in the hour.
One saving grace may be that surge on the Vietnam coast may be a bit lower around the Da Nang area.


I don't think that is a savings as all the coastal areas for many miles inland are very low.

LOL oh there it is.

NAMELESS 21083 11397 14134 220// 92516=

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21
8.3N 139.7E
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0
238. amd
Quoting VortMax1969:
One saving grace may be that surge on the Vietnam coast may be a bit lower around the Da Nang area.


I don't think that is a savings as all the coastal areas for many miles inland are very low.



i was unaware of that. In that case, hopefully the family that PcolaDan knows is evacuating to higher ground, now.
Low’ forms in Bay of Bengal; tipped to intensify


Thiruvananthapuram, Sept 28 A low-pressure area spinning up over west-central Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood on Monday persisted around the same region towards the evening, according to an update from India Meteorological Department (IMD).

According to a senior official of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, the system was located on or just off the Andhra Pradesh coast and was expected to move very slowly to the west.

COULD INTENSIFY


While doing so, it is expected to intensify at least one round into a well-marked ‘low’, he said; there is even an outside chance it could ramp up to a depression, given the slow grind.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and a host of other international weather models project the system as meandering across the peninsula to emerge into the Arabian Sea around October 3.

The Bay ‘low’ set up the western-most front of a massive trough of low pressure spanning the Bay of Bengal and extending into the adjoining Indo-China, the South China Sea and the west Pacific.

Apart from the ‘low’ in the Bay, the trough is hosting at least three distinct areas of turbulence – raging Typhoon Ketsana in the South China Sea and Tropical Depressions No 18 and 19 in the west Pacific, east of the Philippines.

Ketsana is expected to make landfall over Vietnam in the next 24 hours, according to the London-based Tropical Storm Risk Group. It may go on to ‘lit up’ the Bay for one more time, says the ECMWF.

The fresh ‘low’ may form off the Andhra Pradesh coast by October 1 and travel in a west-northwest direction to emerge into the Arabian Sea by October 5.

This could trigger another round of widespread to fairly widespread showers all over the peninsula, according to forecasts available on Monday.

NOT UNUSUAL


The late-September activity in the Bay of Bengal is not exactly unusual but does not jell with a situation where an ongoing El Nino in the equatorial central and east Pacific has already spoilt the just-concluding monsoon.

The Climate Prediction Centre (CPS) of the US National Weather Services attributed this to tropical sub-seasonal variability (climate variations that recur in cycles) that cannot be predicted accurately.


Link
Will this Pacific typhoon season be 1997-esque or something?

And 19W/27W is now looking like a TS.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
LOL oh there it is.

NAMELESS 21083 11397 14134 220// 92516=

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21
8.3N 139.7E
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0



for wish storm???
Taz, Japan Meteorological Agency Tropical Depression 21 is 19W
WoW look at the Shear forecast 3 days out. This can't be the end of September. The Shear forecast looks more like the end of November!

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Taz, Japan Meteorological Agency Tropical Depression 21 is 19W


ok
240. somemalayguy117 12:13 AM GMT on September 29, 2009

And 19W/27W is now looking like a TS.

----------------------------

where you getting "27W" from?

and yes officially 19W is a tropical storm, just not named by JMA yet since it still has 30 kts so far. (though Palma may be issued later this hour or in 6 hrs).
** WTPQ20 BABJ 290000 CCA ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY KETSANA 0916 (0916) INITIAL TIME 290000 UTC
00HR 15.5N 109.4E 965HPA 35M/S
30KTS 500KM
50KTS 100KM
P12HR W 15KM/H
P+24HR 15.5N 106.5E 990HPA 23M/S
P+48HR 15.5N 103.5E 1002HPA 12M/S=

--
70 kts from China Meteorological Administration office
with the step up where seeing now and i dont see this leting up any time soon i think hurricane season is overe

Quoting PcolaDan:


I just talked to a friends across the street that has family in Vietnam. They just talked to them and there is already water in the house. In their case that is ten feet high just to get into the house. This house is concrete so should survive any winds. Flooding is another story. They don't know when they will be able to make contact after the storm passes through.


I am not an expert, I would advise your friends in Vietnam to seek higher ground if possible!! The N fetch off the S China Sea will only get worse!!!
Good evening...
Quoting PcolaDan:


I need some help QUICK if anybody has info. I just talked to the family across the street and their family's house is about 10 min from the coast in Da Nang. The water they have in the house already is SALT WATER, which means surge is already starting. They think because they have a concrete house they are safe (think winds) but you and I know better when it comes to surge. Anyone with surge info?
Thanks, Dan


Hi Dan,
Tough call, not knowing the terrain, but leaving a solid structure during a storm is almost never a good idea. They must allow themselves an escape route if water rises too far (common in LA to keep an axe in the attic for that purpose). I also noticed the forecast track seems to take the storm somewhat north of Da Nang which could mean a lower or even negative surge - though again, not knowing the landscape…We wish them the best of luck, please keep us advised…
Quoting tropics21:
Different Years different conditions this year no IMO
Agreed, this is an unusually different season overall, from the typical Atlantic season we are used to.
Orca blog of the year, could be on to something.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
TYPHOON KETSANA (T0916)
9:00 AM JST September 29 2009
================================

Subject: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Ketsana (960 hPa) located at 15.7N 109.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving west-southwest at 8 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Size of Typhoon: Large

Storm-Force Winds
===============
90 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
===============
475 NM from the center in south quadrant
325 NM from the center in north quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 15.8N 108.0E - 45 kts (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 16.5N 106.8E - Tropical Depression
Offical surge worst is suppose to be 1-2m. 2m where your friend is.

mm5E shows a small area near Da Ning with 2-3m
Quoting mikatnight:


Hi Dan,
Tough call, not knowing the terrain, but leaving a solid structure during a storm is almost never a good idea. They must allow themselves an escape route if water rises too far (common in LA to keep an axe in the attic for that purpose). I also noticed the forecast track seems to take the storm somewhat north of Da Nang which could mean a lower or even negative surge - though again, not knowing the landscape…We wish them the best of luck, please keep us advised…


Update:
Was just talking to my friends. Found out their family lives on and Island (oh crap) in the middle of a river about 4 miles from the coast. Coordinates roughly 15.52N 108.21E
Car flooded already and no boat. Concrete 2 story house (ceilings about 10 foot high). Three different houses. They say they can't get off the island now. I've given them all the info I can about Ketsana plus preparation tips (considering the situation, not much), such as be prepared to go through the roof.
This just sucks.
Will keep everyone informed.
Thanks, Dan
Check the OFCL wave forecast.. the red there is over 15ft.

mikatnight: you got mail haha
Dan~ Shouldn't be worse than 3m..big waves on top of that. Maybe a safer higher spot on the island if they can get there.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL STORM PARMA (T0917)
9:00 AM JST September 29 2009
================================

Subject: Category One Typhoon Near The Caroline Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Parma (996 hPa) located at 8.3N 139.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as moving west at 15 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Gale-Force Winds
==================
50 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 09.1N 136.7E - 45 kts (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 12.6N 132.7E - 50 kts (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 15.2N 128.2E - 60 kts (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
Quoting tornadodude:
mikatnight: you got mail haha


Thanks Matt, that was nice to hear.
next Philippines threat, unfortunately

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THE WAVE IS ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE LIES IN A BROAD AREA OF L0W/MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW INDICATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS MAINLY N OF 13N AND E OF 40W. HOWEVER...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 36W-40W. AND FROM 13N-14N BETWEEN 34W-36W. IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED MORE WITH A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT.
Quoting mikatnight:


Thanks Matt, that was nice to hear.


no problem
Quoting PcolaDan:


Update:
Was just talking to my friends. Found out their family lives on and Island (oh crap) in the middle of a river about 4 miles from the coast. Coordinates roughly 15.52N 108.21E
Car flooded already and no boat. Concrete 2 story house (ceilings about 10 foot high). Three different houses. They say they can't get off the island now. I've given them all the info I can about Ketsana plus preparation tips (considering the situation, not much), such as be prepared to go through the roof.
This just sucks.
Will keep everyone informed.
Thanks, Dan
Dan Was stationed there during the War the Islands in the river are gonna be under water with run off once the storm reaches the Highlands a very bad place to be as those islands in the river are not very big hopefully possibly a boat if neighbors have one
The model calling for the higher surge wins 2nd most accurate today..

Model Performance Statistics for WP172009
Average Error (nm) for core models
model Error Trend 24hr Error 48hr Error 72hr Error Day 4 Error Day 5 Error
MM5B DECREASING 66.9 91.5 119 -1 -1
MM5E INCREASING 80.9 102.5 92.3 -1 -1
JTWC DECREASING 85.9 144 188 -1 -1
KHRM DECREASING 99.3 175.8 230.9 -1 -1

Winds look like a strong TS for your friends.. fear the surge..
Quoting PcolaDan:


Update:
Was just talking to my friends. Found out their family lives on and Island (oh crap) in the middle of a river about 4 miles from the coast. Coordinates roughly 15.52N 108.21E
Car flooded already and no boat. Concrete 2 story house (ceilings about 10 foot high). Three different houses. They say they can't get off the island now. I've given them all the info I can about Ketsana plus preparation tips (considering the situation, not much), such as be prepared to go through the roof.
This just sucks.
Will keep everyone informed.
Thanks, Dan


Sounds like they're in for a rough night. Our prayers are with them in hopes their shelter holds together and keeps them safe.
Quoting PcolaDan:


Update:
Was just talking to my friends. Found out their family lives on and Island (oh crap) in the middle of a river about 4 miles from the coast. Coordinates roughly 15.52N 108.21E
Car flooded already and no boat. Concrete 2 story house (ceilings about 10 foot high). Three different houses. They say they can't get off the island now. I've given them all the info I can about Ketsana plus preparation tips (considering the situation, not much), such as be prepared to go through the roof.
This just sucks.
Will keep everyone informed.
Thanks, Dan


Latest Navy Sat pic shows center of Katsana not too far off the coast.

Briefly accessed the Hydro-Meteorological Centre in Vietnam. Before the web page crashed there are already 3 major warning for 3 major rivers in Vietnam. They're expecting approx 90 MPH winds at/near landfall.

I'll try to access their site and try to print their latest advisory.
272. 7544
yeap nice convection there Chicklit maybe this is the system the gfs is showing getting all the way to the islands with alog with some other models in the last run wait and watch
Ketsana on mimic~ watch it bounce off land the last few frames.


Parma (0917)
Interesting wave, Chick. Think it'll last to the WCar?
Quoting Skyepony:
Ketsana on mimic~ watch it bounce off land the last few frames.


What's up with that???
Atleast the sun just came up..shouldn't have landfall in the dark..



I called Da Nang this time lastnight. Looking pretty close.
The MJO forecast varies for our basin over the next 2 weeks. The CFS showing downward motion, the GFS showing a nice upward motion and the EWP down the middle. The CFS, however, does not appear to be accurately reflecting the current pulse in the in the Eastern Pacific Basin nor does it show a proper transition of the MJO: showing westward propagation of this oscillation rather than eastward propagation. I am currently in favor of the statistical EWP as the GFS long-range does not accurately handle quantum precipitation. Looking out in the long-range, and making a compromise, upper level wind will be marginally favorable in the favored genesis area of the Caribbean. I believe that this season is limited to having one more storm before things really shut off with the combination of MJO downward motion and, increasing mean wind shear, and above-average 850mb winds.
Quoting Skyepony:
Ketsana on mimic~ watch it bounce off land the last few frames.


It's the view that is shifting, not the storm. Note the land also "moves".
Quoting PcolaDan:


What's up with that???


It's not unusual..you can see it being repelled by the land to the NW 1st & jog south. Kinda set it up for a straight on. Which many times you'll see the minuet bounce on MIMIC. The land interaction early on to the NW is why I didn't go well N of Da Nang with the forecast. TCs hate land. Still may come in a little to the N just trying to avoid it.
Quoting Bordonaro:


Latest Navy Sat pic shows center of Katsana not too far off the coast.

Briefly accessed the Hydro-Meteorological Centre in Vietnam. Before the web page crashed there are already 3 major warning for 3 major rivers in Vietnam. They're expecting approx 90 MPH winds at/near landfall.

I'll try to access their site and try to print their latest advisory.


Tried twice to get onto the Vietnam Hydro-Meteorolgical Centre site, not happening.

Sure soon there will be a landfall and reports will slowly trickle out. Right now, hopefully God has mercy!
Death toll from flooding in Philippines hits 240


Link
That little island off of Da Nang is nearly in the eye now..

Quoting mikatnight:


It's the view that is shifting, not the storm. Note the land also "moves".


MIMIC keeps the storm centered so as it moves on mimic Ketsana stays still & the land moves. You can kinda see the bounce on the RGB I posted, slowed down. If you click the sat pic~ a loop will load.
Quoting Bordonaro:


Latest Navy Sat pic shows center of Katsana not too far off the coast.

Briefly accessed the Hydro-Meteorological Centre in Vietnam. Before the web page crashed there are already 3 major warning for 3 major rivers in Vietnam. They're expecting approx 90 MPH winds at/near landfall.

I'll try to access their site and try to print their latest advisory.


90 mph sustained I assume, meaning gusts over 100mph. 100 is a major threshold. Crap starts flying big time then. Then again, Frances and Jeanne never even got to hurricane strength in PB County (PBI), and it still looked like a bomb went off around here.

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


For those of you bored, check out the comments section for the Comedy
288. JLPR
This is the newest ascat I could find since quickscat is even older

and this is still waaaay old lol
definitely some wind shifts with the wave
Quoting Skyepony:


MIMIC keeps the storm centered so as it moves on mimic Ketsana stays still & the land moves. You can kinda see the bounce on the RGB I posted, slowed down. If you click the sat pic~ a loop will load.


Soon as I posted that I thought, why am I trying to correct someone who obviously knows more about this stuff than me? My apologies. I apparently didn't look hard enough, and wrote before thinking...
290. JRRP
291. JLPR
you cant deny this wave is looking a little interesting =P


and its waaay down there close to 10-8N
That's Ivan territory JLPR!
293. 7544
Quoting JLPR:
you cant deny this wave is looking a little interesting =P


and its waaay down there close to 10-8N


yeap you think it might be our next invest just in time for oct
294. JLPR
Landfall very soon
295. JLPR
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
That's Ivan territory JLPR!


yep
but that's definitely no Ivan :)
296. JRRP
Quoting Bordonaro:


Tried twice to get onto the Vietnam Hydro-Meteorolgical Centre site, not happening.

Sure soon there will be a landfall and reports will slowly trickle out. Right now, hopefully God has mercy!


Latest tid-bit off the Vietnam Hydro-Meteorological Centre site as of a few minutes ago:

EMERGENCY INFORMATION (The storm 9)
Feedback 04 hours on September 29, located in the center of the storm at about 16.0 degrees North Latitude; 109.8 degrees East Business, the coast of Thua Thien-Hue - Quang Nam about 140 km to the east. In the strongest winds near the center of the storm power supply 13 (ie from 134 to 149 km per hour), shock level 14, level 15, and directly influence the waters of the provinces from Quang Tri to Quang Ngai and South Gulf of Tonkin.
NOTICE OF EMERGENCY LU SONG ON BOTH, THE SONG FROM THE Quang Tri to Phu Yen, Gia Lai and Kon Tum
NOTICE LU SONG ON BOTH, THE SONG FROM THE Quang Tri to Binh Dinh, Gia Lai and Kon Tum

mikatnight~ It's all good..

Manila cam shows atleast some cars survived the floods.. Looks like Philippines maybe the ones getting nailed repeatably this year.
299. JLPR
The CMC develops a low from the TW at 40W


The GFS develops a low farther east

None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days. Wind shear is predicted to be high in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean this week, limiting the potential for anything to develop close to land.

Another words.........Atlantic season is OVER!!!
301. JLPR
Quoting RufusBaker:
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days. Wind shear is predicted to be high in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean this week, limiting the potential for anything to develop close to land.

Another words.........Atlantic season is OVER!!!


no that says 7days
302. xcool
RufusBaker .plz stop
303. JRRP
Quoting JLPR:
The CMC develops a low from the TW at 40W


The GFS develops a low farther east


the system that CMC develops is currently near 8n 20w
304. JLPR
305. JLPR
Quoting JRRP:

the system that CMC develops is currently near 8n 20w


ah! I see
hadn't noticed that one
The West Pacific right now looks like the twin of the pic that Pat keeps posting from 2008. 4 storms lined up in a row.
307. JLPR
Quoting victoriahurricane:
The West Pacific right now looks like the twin of the pic that Pat keeps posting from 2008. 4 storms lined up in a row.


yep
Quoting JLPR:
something to watch?
309. JLPR
Quoting farhaonhebrew:
something to watch?


looking interesting but nothing yet
let's see in the morning...good night!
311. JLPR
Quoting farhaonhebrew:
let's see in the morning...good night!


night :)
Da Nang had the highest windspeed at any meteorological station in the world last hour:

Link
Well it's sit and wait right now and hope my friends family is okay. Nothing to do at this point. When I left them they were going to try calling one more time to tell them to beware of flash flooding as rain hits the mountains. On that island they could catch it coming and going. Thanks for the info from you guys.
Ya'll rock.
Dan
The West Pacific basin is going nuts.

A typhoon, a tropical storm, a tropical depression and a will-be tropical depression all at once in this area. Let's watch out for cyclone merging!

I hope my country, Philippines, will be (and must now be) prepared.

P.S. Good luck on all the warnings that will be issued this week, JTWC!
Quoting Orcasystems:

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


For those of you bored, check out the comments section for the Comedy
My last comment for the night goes to ORCA, and it is simple: If I can't get up for work tomorrow, boyo, it'll be ur fault for setting me onto your comments page..... dangerous reading, that!

'Night all!
Om another note the cooler weather is on my doorstep. Clouds and rain coming from the NNW.
Quoting PcolaDan:
Om another note the cooler weather is on my doorstep. Clouds and rain coming from the NNW.


Can't wait, they're calling for 62f tonight!
PcolaDan, your little graphic people are great!

I hope the folks you are concerned for make out alright. Not knowing is the worst!
Quoting RufusBaker:
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days. Wind shear is predicted to be high in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean this week, limiting the potential for anything to develop close to land.

Another words.........Atlantic season is OVER!!!


I do not know where you live but here in the Caribbean the season is not over until Nov. 31.
321. P451
Good Evening...

Three areas to look at.

Closed for Business: (for now, give it a week, maybe)



Slightly interesting:



Not going to make it far:

Quoting tbrett:


I do not know where you live but here in the Caribbean the season is not over until Nov. 31.


Um there is no November 31st lol
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


Um there is no November 31st lol


lol April, June, September and November only have 30 days.

By the way, Philippines will brace for another 2 tropical cyclones. We need help.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


Um there is no November 31st lol

lol meant 30th..Glad someone is paying attention.
Quoting RufusBaker:
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days. Wind shear is predicted to be high in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean this week, limiting the potential for anything to develop close to land.

Another words.........Atlantic season is OVER!!!
Quoting RufusBaker:
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days. Wind shear is predicted to be high in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean this week, limiting the potential for anything to develop close to land.

Another words.........Atlantic season is OVER!!!
Idon't think so yet
IPlay there is hope for you..

Quoting Skyepony:
IPlay there is hope for you..



GFNI is scariest, so near....

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


Check out the comments section for the Comedy
Parma keeps moving southwest... So weird..

Satellite loop
Storms shaped like Parma are really harder to forecast, they give models fits..

19W model accuracy.. None are doing great,,

Average Error (nm) for core models
model Error Trend 24hr Error 48hr Error 72hr Error Day 4 Error Day 5 Error
KHRM INCREASING 61.6 -1 -1 -1 -1
MM5B INCREASING 66.9 -1 -1 -1 -1
MM5E INCREASING 75.2 -1 -1 -1 -1
JTWC DECREASING 90.4 -1 -1 -1 -1
333. JLPR
334. xcool



336. xcool
matt hey
337. xcool


Live Conditions 12:13 AM
St Margaret Mary School
Change Tracking Station
Temp
73.5°F
Switch to Celsius
5
mphSo Far Today
Lo: 73°F Rain: 0.00" Hi: 75°F Gust: NNE 9
Totally random, but on Daily Planet earlier I saw this guy with these packets that turned 10 L of dirty ugly flood water into clean drinking water in only 30 mins. and they're bringing enough packets to purify 1,000,000 litres to the Phillippines to aid the people caught in Ketsana. It's sort of on topic :P
Quoting xcool:
matt hey


hey
Quoting victoriahurricane:
Totally random, but on Daily Planet earlier I saw this guy with these packets that turned 10 L of dirty ugly flood water into clean drinking water in only 30 mins. and they're bringing enough packets to purify 1,000,000 litres to the Phillippines to aid the people caught in Ketsana. It's sort of on topic :P


that is really cool
342. xcool
.How you doin' ? .matt
Quoting xcool:
.How you doin' ? .matt


I am doing well, I went on a date tonight, so that was good, :), went to starbucks because it is cold here
344. xcool
Starbucks coffee taste so good mmmmm
Quoting xcool:
Starbucks coffee taste so good mmmmm


yessir
346. xcool
:) feeling good outside right now!
Quoting xcool:
:) feeling good outside right now!


its cold here
348. xcool
too cold for me.:
349. JRRP
CMC
Link
i´m out
350. xcool
looking at cmc model TWO low in gom and TWO LOW in ATL .
lmao give it up guys the shear will keep anything developing in the caribbean sea for the whole month of october..its over guys wait till next year...
352. xcool
one more storm comeing on now!
not in the caribbean or gom thats a fact guy...hurricane season is OVER!!!!!!!!!!
354. xcool
tacoman ook
Be carefull what you say! the east coast must still look an wait!
Xcool, You are right. I just looked at goes east sat. An there is a big blob. Do you know what it might do? Thank you:::Star
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION "22"
15:00 PM JST September 29 2009
================================

Subject: Tropical Depression Near Marshalls Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 9.6N 160.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 12.8N 156.5E - 35 kts (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

---
wow the numbering is going to be wierd

Typhoon 20 is 17W
Tropical Storm 21 is 19W
Tropical Depression 22 would be 20W
Tropical Depression 23 may be 18W
358. IKE
Very little on the 00Z ECMWF through October 9th.

Is it over?
Good morning IKE. Has it cooled off yet up there?
Quoting IKE:
Very little on the 00Z ECMWF through October 9th.

Is it over?


Ike, I saw something there that is becoming more pronounced each run...

Other models are forecasting this. It will likely go out to sea if takes this path.
361. IKE
Quoting MisterJohnny:
Good morning IKE. Has it cooled off yet up there?


It's started. I woke up about 3 am(after going to sleep at 7:30pm). It was at 70 degrees then. Now dropped to 66.6. Dew point at 60.
Morning, ya'll.

I don't hear no singing, so I don't think we're quite done yet....

I really don't think we'll see more than TS strength out of anything else, though. Maybe one of these latest waves will last long enough to take advantage of whatever upswing in the MJO we see in the next little while....
363. IKE
Maybe this has a chance....

Good Morning Futuremet, Good Morning Baha
It's something to watch, anyway....
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning, ya'll.

I don't hear no singing, so I don't think we're quite done yet....

I really don't think we'll see more than TS strength out of anything else, though. Maybe one of these latest waves will last long enough to take advantage of whatever upswing in the MJO we see in the next little while....


Morning all


My outlook for the remainder of the season is finish but I will post it 2mr. But here are some interesting facts

By September 29, we are due for 3 additional tropical storms

September 09 has been one of the quietest Septembers since probably 1997 and there are indications this slow progression will only get slower as we near the end of the season.

There is a 50/50 chance that MJO will affect seasonal activity, with a 80% El Nino will affect the remainder of the season and 30-50% chance the seasonal will extend pass October 15.

I do urge persons in the Caribbean and South Florida to be alert still since TCHP is extremely high in the W CARIB and late seasonal hurricanes are still a threat - Lenny, Omar, Paloma, Wilma, etc.

However, these famous late seasonal storms never occurred in an El Nino year, so that should be considered.
Morning johny and 456.

I'm getting out now, but I keep remembering a secondary peak in OCT on that average chart. I'm not saying we are likely to get anything big, [not hoping for it at all] but more named storms are not outside the realm of the possible.

Ya'll have a great day!
interesting large wave 40w waiting to take a visual look
Good moring to all.
Subject: Category Three Typhoon Overland Vietnam

At 9:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Ketsana (970 hPa) located at 15.3N 108.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving west at 9 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity:

Size of Typhoon: Large

Storm-Force Winds
===============
70 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
===============
475 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
325 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 15.3N 107.6E - 35 kts (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 16.0N 106.3E - Tropical Depression
456 Thank you for update...My old ones reading what taco said an woke up the whole house with news that it was over.An I had to tell them not to read what he wrote. Then thay got all sad.. thanks for the truth..Star
people have some serious issues on here...
Good Morning 82 degrees SRQ. FL - still warm - but.....humidity at 67%
Finally not 90% !!!

Gulf at 88 degrees
remember dr masters saying about a yr ago expect higher amounts of rainfall "i will return" is another example. too many terrible weather events recently not sure if you tube is kind of responsible.
Palm bay Fla. temp74 humidity 88% barometer29.873 in Looks like a lovely day here. I am going to take them out for lunch. May be thay will get happy again..
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, includes Dr. Masters & Weather456, daily update.


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Check out the comments section for the Comedy
379. IKE
62.2 degrees outside my window(overnight low so far)...right now...as I type...dew point down to 55.

Quoting IKE:
62.2 degrees outside my window(overnight low so far)...right now...as I type...dew point down to 55.



Its starting to feel like Fall here :(

TS Melor (not named by the JMA yet but JTWC upgraded TD 18W to a TS) and TD 19/28 reminds me of Typhoon Joan and Ivan since they are pretty close together and follow similar paths.
382. IKE
I thought NHC might include the system near 40 west....wrong.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH

Quoting IKE:
I thought NHC might include the system near 40 west....wrong.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH

fine with me doubt if any come near the conus from that area but those islands down in that part of the world still might have some trouble vietnam typhoon could be big problems for them slow mover have a great day


cool windy and a little rain fall is in full swing may have to fire the heat up starting this evening until sat morning with overnight temps in low 40's tonight and mid 30's wed thu fri
5AM advisories from JTWC:

Typhoon Ketsana
15.4N 108.6E
Winds:105 MPH
Movement:W at 7 MPH
Pressure:970 MB



Tropical Storm 18W
11.5N 150.0E
Winds:40 MPH
Movement:WNW at 18 MPH
Pressure:1002 MB



Tropical Storm Parma
7.9N 138.4E
Winds:50 MPH
Movement:WSW at 12 MPH
Pressure:994 MB



Tropical Depression 20W
10.6N 158.9E
Winds:30 MPH
Movement:WNW at 23 MPH
Pressure:1002 MB



18W is supposed to be absorbed by 19W(Parma) by 96hrs(4 days)
One more steam bath today then a brief touch of cooler mornings, ahhhh, mornings in the upper 60's in SFL Mid Week.
Brrr.... 39 degrees this morning. I'm not ready.
Good morning...
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
One more steam bath today then a brief touch of cooler mornings, ahhhh, mornings in the upper 60's in SFL Mid Week.
only problem with the cool air is the rtn flow off gom that follows after it moves out looks like this next system coming out of rockies will drawn some more cooler air down by end of week startin early next week a flow sets up with a stream coming up off epac ne over baja into cen west texas with building rtn flow off gom should dev a significant storm system over southern plains to track across eastern half conus south of lakes along the southern shore of erie ontario then bomb out with a sweeping cold front as it moves ne after that looks like tue to thu next week for this feature at the moment
Really excellent! It looks like the season is ending quietly. With a cold front coming down through Florida and another expected in a few days, that should help keep the season quiet. The western Caribbean still has to be watched for another few weeks, but so far, so good in terms of gradually ending the threat of tropical cyclones for the season.
Quoting TropicalBruce:
Really excellent! It looks like the season is ending quietly. With a cold front coming down through Florida and another expected in a few days, that should help keep the season quiet. The western Caribbean still has to be watched for another few weeks, but so far, so good in terms of gradually ending the threat of tropical cyclones for the season.


Almost time to set up the snow watch for Florida :)
Good Morning to all,
Would the pros and semi-pros please discuss 18 and 20 in the West Pac and the possible effects on Guam and the Marianas. My friend in Guam said 19 was never an issue for Guam. I hope StormW and Dr. Masters discuss these systems in their upcoming blogs, too.
The Typhoon Center keeps saying the models are not in agreement (but early on discussion said the ECMWF seemed it might be the best).
Many thanks in advance.
(oh, students of weather comments always appreciated, too, I didn't mean to sound like I discounted anyone's opinion.)
Orca..did you say snow storm for fla?! LMAO
Quoting foggymyst:
Orca..did you say snow storm for fla?! LMAO


You did say you wanted some weather days off... snow is just friendly rain :)

(I can't believe I typed that...I hate snow, and you don't have to shovel rain)
Quoting IKE:
I thought NHC might include the system near 40 west....wrong.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH



Nohing out there for right now stands a chance the atl is very hostile just about everywere you look.
Quoting Orcasystems:
U.S. Northeast May Have Coldest Winter in a Decade (Update2)


Theres two different opinions in that article.Matt Rogers predicts the coldest winter in a decade,then it prints the NWS says warmer in the Pacifice means warmer weather in the Northeast for Jan. Feb. and Mar.
Good Morning............Back to lurk mode...
The weather looks very different with only one hurricane model to look at.
23 found dead so far in Vietnam from Ketsana.
403. IKE
NEW BLOG!
New Blog
Quoting Skyepony:
23 found dead so far in Vietnam from Ketsana.


That is very unfortunate. What troubles me personally is how people do not receive the warnings of impending danger, even worse, when people IGNORE the warnings!

Do all nations need to do like Cuba, when it comes to severe weather? I understand when they issue evacuation warnings, you leave voluntarily OR your ARRESTED.

I live in Tornado Alley. I used to take the warnings lightly, "It'll never happen to me"!

One day it did! A Severe Thunderstorm struck C Arlington, TX, in 1987; my wife and 5 children saw 115MPH wind gusts first hand, it lasted over 1 hr. I'll never forget, I remember the family hunkered down in the bedroom, just waiting for one of our 50' Maple trees to come crashing through the roof, or the windows to get blown out or our roof to peel off, in the 115MPH gusts.

People, PLEASE, when an agency issues a WARNING DO NOT IGNORE IT!

Quoting Orcasystems:
Philippines braces for new storm as toll hits 246

Thanks for the link to this news story, Orca. At least Canada is thinking about next storm!
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Thanks for the link to this news story, Orca. At least Canada is thinking about next storm!

You probably won't see this as new blog was posted awhile ago, but thanks anyway.