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Philippines clean up after Utor

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:03 PM GMT on December 11, 2006

The Philippine Islands continue to assess the damage from Typhoon Utor (called Seniang in the Philippines). Utor (the Marshallese word for a squall line) hit the eastern Samar province Saturday as a Category 1 typhoon on Saturday, then intensified to a Category 3 typhoon as it passed through the islands, striking Mindoro Island as a Category 3 storm before passing out into the South China Sea. Thankfully, Utor moved at a much quicker speed through the islands than devastating Super Typhoon Durian did at the end of November, and thus dropped only about half the amount of rain. The death toll from Utor is 6, with 19 missing. Most of the missing are fisherman that may yet be found. Utor did not trigger major mudslides and flash flooding like Durian did, and the storm is expected to die in the South China Sea and not create significant problems for any other nations. A list of the typhoons to hit the Philippines so far this year, and their strength at landfall:

Chanchu (May) Cat 2
Xangsane (Sept) Cat 4
Cimaron (Oct) Cat 5
Chebi (Nov) Cat 3
Durian (Nov) Cat 4
Utor (Dec) Cat 3

Utor was unusual in that it intensified significantly from a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds to a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds while it passed through the islands with much of its circulation over land. Normally, the friction created when a typhoon's winds pass over land will weaken the storm. In Utor's case, however, the inner core of the storm remained over warm (29 C) waters, and it may be that the funneling effect of the low-level wind flow through the spaces between the islands acted to accelerate the winds flowing into the eyewall. These faster winds near the core brought in more water vapor to fuel the storm and generated enhanced updrafts in the eyewall, allowing the typhoon to intensify despite the frictional drag of land on the rest of the storm. It is also possible that the relatively protected waters between the islands allowed the large waves kicked up by the storm to die down, reducing the amount of frictional drag on the winds and thus aiding intensification. A detailed computer simulation of the air-sea interaction of Utor is needed to figure out what happened, though.


Figure 1. Satellite image of Typhoon Utor from NOAA.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I pray that this is the "last one" for them for a while. I read that they evacuated about 90,000 people this time.
VERY INTERESTING NEW FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR MIAMI,FL:BY MID WEEK...THE GFS BEGINS TO SHOW A DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING IN THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND BY THURSDAY A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE YUCATAN. IN RESPONSE TO THIS SURFACE
LOW...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AND SOUTH ON
FRIDAY AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS DEPICTED BY LIFTED INDEX
PROGS. MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AS A
SECOND SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THIS FIRST DISTURBANCE FOR
SATURDAY. WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND WILL ACCEPT THE TREND OF INCREASING
POPS AS WELL. HOPE THIS TREND IS REAL BECAUSE WE COULD USE THE
RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS OR EVEN
ABOVE SOMEWHAT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME PARAMETERS
FOR POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT LOOK PROMISING BUT THE
GFS DOES SHOW AN 80 KNOT WIND MAX ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
SATURDAY. WILL WATCH CAREFULLY.
Utor..like many the Phillipines have endured..was a good navigator.The core stayed Just in the sweet spot.And like the Good Doc says..Land this time..wasnt an inhibiting factor.Very Unusual...but true.
Nice shear over the storms on Saturday with the low pressure

Link

That's why no TC development.
882mb dont see anything tropical coming out of this but a heavy rain maker seems like a possiblity for south florida.
Utor is now intensifying once again...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR 830 AM PST MON DEC 11 2006

A SOLUTION. 00Z GFS SIMILAR TO SUNDAYS 12Z RUN AND DEVELOPS A 968 MB LOW AND TAKES IT INTO NRN VANCOUVER ISLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON

wow 968 mb low that would be a cat 2 or 3 hurricane winds may be cat 4
Thanks for the update Dr Masters. I had never considered that knocking down the waves reduces friction.
The country is used to typhoons, but this string of storms has really taken its toll. I'm so glad that this storm stayed a cat. 1 for as long as it did.
Discovery now doing its Flip Maneuver..as it prepares to HArd Dock in less than an Hour.
That was a spectacular typhoon in the Phillipenes, I hope all are well there. And thanks for the updates Dr. Masters

BTW, for those who dont know, I have begun daily updates of the weather in Florida on my blog, with more complete information on

Florida Weather
Get the Hammer randrewl!..LOL!
Leave the hammer on the BAR rand..dont do it Man!..LOL 5
LOL! Nice
Buster.....what are you doing?
Durian is finally gone from the navy site! India finished it off.

Utor

Credit NOAA
80kts, 963mbs

New invest since this morning in the W Pacific...95W ~15kts

The new invest that formed overnight in the Southern Hemisphere 96S has really fallen apart since this morning.

HEY EVERYBODY, 18UTC GFS STILL ON WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF!YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS WE CAN FINALLY GET SOME RAIN.
Why R u talking in all caps?
BECAUSE I LIKE TO TALK IN CAPS!
882MB...nobody else enjoys the bold caps.
WHAT ARE YOU TRYING TO SAY RANDREWL?
wow, his/her posts sure stands out
NOAA News ~ Dr Masters has schooled us some on this subject.

SATELLITES FIND CLEANER AIR ACROSS EASTERN U.S.~ click here for the rest of it.



Dec. 8, 2006 A major smog-forming pollutant is declining over the eastern United States, according to a new study by scientists at NOAA and the University of Bremen, Germany. New satellite observations mark the first time space-based instruments have detected the regional impact of pollution controls implemented by coal-burning electric power plants in the 1990s. The findings were published this month in Geophysical Research Letters, a publication of the American Geophysical Union.
Hades~ They just keep getting a little more south each time as the ITCZ zone marches toward the S Hemisphere. That track is about along 10N, soon they'll be too south to spin up. I bet some people over there are gonna celebrate the end of this season.
WHAT ARE YOU TRYING TO SAY RANDREWL?

Well, to be as polite as I can be.....I'll ask you one more time to stop posting bold caps on Doctor Masters blog. You are free to do that in your own blog if you choose.
Your comments are no more important than anyone else's.
I Agree too:)
Caps denote Shouting in the Cyberworld.In the Weather world..the Known know that BOLD means Listen here,This is important.As a sign of respect to the fellow bloggers..please refrain from using CAPS..unless something is warranted by it.Like a TORNADO or other life threatening event....Thanks
WELL LISTEN HERE RANDREWL I DO NOT CARE WHAT YOU THINK JUST BECAUSE I WRITE IN CAPS DOESNT MEAN IM MORE IMPORTANT THAN ANYONE ELSE,SECOND OF ALL I KEEP WRITING IN CAPS IF I FEEL LIKE IT.
882MB...That would be your choice then.
May you rest in peace in your bold caps grave.
Evening all,

First time I've been here in a week! This is a busy time at work, and I've been hitting the sack as soon as I get home . . .

Some interesting reading in the last few days. I was interested in the forecast, though not overly surprised at the overall numbers. They are about the same as what we have seen for about 6 years now. What did catch my eye was the relatively small number of storms forecast to hit the Lesser Antilles in the TSR report from last week.

Here is what I culled from the TSR report:

15.7 TS ATL Basin
10.9 TS MDR, Car, GoM (the 3 main areas of TS formation)
4.7 TS US Landfall
1.7 TS Lesser Antilles Landfall

Right away two things strike me:

1. If 10 form in the main formation areas, that means an expected 5 in the N ATL area (what we would expect to think of as sub-tropical formation).

2. If only 2 tropical storms are expected to make landfall in the Lesser Antilles, that means most of the storms are expected to either pass north of the Antilles or form inside the Caribbean or GoM.

Either way, I can infer increased landfall in Central America, Mexico, Gulf Coast, and FL in 2007. I'd say less of a threat to NE US seaboard.

What do u guys think? Ideally, one should look at the climatology to see what steering patterns possibly could be in place given the different factors they are suggesting will influence next year's season.

882 please stop posting in caps i keep thinking your gonna post something important!!>:(
stormchaser im going to stop because more than 1 person has told me but before i always use to write in caps and no one ever argues!now when i post something important i will write in CAPS.
In here caps can also denote a quotation for one of the NWS websites. Using all caps for a regular comment can thus create unnecessary confusion.

this is a weatherblog not an arguing blog!
I think El Nino is on the demise.See my blog for more.
Nobody posts in caps here. Only NHC information. Nothing is more important than that.
The Bermuda Azores High usually is the Basin ruler..except in these el nino..years.I try to focus in MAy and June on How far south and West it settles in to.Interesting to note that you bring this up .Its a very interesting topic for sure Baha
I'm thinking it's a bit too early for saying El Nino is over. We're not into January yet. Let's see what happens in another 6 weeks. That should give a reasonable estimate of what to expect.
Bermuda high forecasts this far out are effectively worthless.Last year everyone said how strong it would be.
Gee.Ive been overuled by a Barometer named Kris..LOL!
Id watch how I use the word "useless",..it could become your nic-name.
Thank you 882:)
Thanks for holding up on the bold caps, 882.

On the subject of next year's season, I have to admit to being a bit worried. The forecast does leave itself open to being interpreted as one with increased potential for a strike on the Bahamas, which we managed to avoid almost entirely in the last two years. (Even 2005, phenomenal year though it was, netted us only a brush from Wilma, which was bad enough considering it hit the same island that had been so badly damaged in 2004.)

I hope I am being only a worrywart. OTOH, I think I will be double-checking everything this winter, while things are relatively peaceful here.
Hey Pat i really loved the picture of nova:)
Well talking about EL NINO i was seeing the 12UTC and 18UTC GFS forecast out for 15 days and it shows some nice pacific storms slamming into southern california, which then enter the gulf of mexico and slam into florida!
She like to make an appearance now and then chaser..Shes a Ham!..LOL
Yeah i saw that 2 882.
LOL:)
Now 15 day forecast models would qualify as worthless....right Pat?
Now this weeks florida rainmaker might also have to do with EL NINO!
I wasn't talking about a May or June forecast, I was talking about a December forecast of next year's Bermuda high
Yeah 882...the southern jet is finally trying to look like an El Nino year.
"The Bermuda Azores High usually is the Basin ruler..except in these el nino..years.I try to focus in MAy and June on How far south and West it settles in to.Interesting to note that you bring this up .Its a very interesting topic for sure Baha"
I backed up your statement.
Check the MLS 06 it shows a possible Nor'Easter forming:)
Well we need the rain!so lets hope we get alot!
feeling that way myself Rand..Im looking forward to taking a Blog Break thru Xmas.Stress and other things ..Like VA screwing up my MRI appt.I get to go to a Civillian place..again.They dropped the ball on me.Teresa spent 2 hours with them getting it straightend out.But let them schedule a colonoscopy.They dot all the eyes and ts..and say..Come on in!..LOL!
Kris....Good luck in trying to forecast the sub-tropical ridge in December out to May. That's like the climatologists forecasting the cataclysmic effects of supposed GW out 30 years....It just ain't accurate.
Shoulder dont even like using the Mouse.Its affecting my Images and Linkage..too.LOL!
Yeah me too ive been thinking of that too!:)
Yeah me too ive been thinking of that too!:)
Sorry Pat...take a break. We have the next class to carry on here anyway. But they need our guiding hands ...know what I mean?
Randrewl.This is THE page to check out here.Its current and the Corps Of Engineers spent plenty on this page.Check it out! Link
New Blood always needed.I was young..once too.Ill be back in about an Hour.E-mail me by WU if ya get the need to chew this link over some.
I will Pat. Thanks. Get some rest. Later brother.
10-4 Pat.
Buster.....don't do this tonight.
Thats a Great Google tour...Its really impressive.Many can learn the engineering that goes on here.
Hammertime again..LOL!
LOL..Hes a carpenter too.Keep ya Hammer hidden!
Dont do it Rand..finish ya beer and just..Walk away!..LMAO!3
Some people..someone once told me..If they dont wanna know..U cant tell um..!.Later Bro...
He's fixing to hammer your plans into the table.
Just read the Tampa,fl FORECAST DISCUISSION: GFS REMAINS THE
STRONGEST WITH RESPECT TO THIS LOW AND OVERALL PRECIPITATION...BUT
IN GENERAL ALL THE MODELS ARE NOW TRYING TO DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONT AND THEN MOVE IT EAST
NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY.
IF GFS SCENARIO IS CORRECT THIS WOULD BE OUR FIRST EL NINO TYPE
EVENT WITH SOME PORTION OF THE AREA RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
I'm gone Buster...if anyone else wants to hear this crap...they're on their own.
Posted By: 882MB at 2:07 PM EST
...THE GFS BEGINS TO SHOW A DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...


Not too bad now but with colder air meeting a possible maxing el nino, a few of rounds of pattern shift & we may see this setup revisited later this winter with more vigor similar to "the '93 superstorm". (I hope not.)
BTW - I WISH I COULD GET RID OF THESE CAPS
As i was just talking about EL NINO events!
And they are also saying that when the surface low is over the gulf a shortwave will dip south into the gulf, wont this strenhgthen the low? possibly.
RANDREWL dont start i was posting what the NWS says for tampa,fl and it comes in caps!!!!!!!!!!
May I try and play peace maker for once...LOL!
well if you look at the disturbance in the gulf i think you will see it is rather abit more then that anyway it bares watching anyway .very interesting for sure .have a good one take care merry Christmas to all >
Lord have mercy you people get upset over nothing .Calm down please .it isnt a big deal .you have been around a computer so long that you take offence to caps lol get a life already .he he he very funny
My local NWS office does not post in bold caps man. Keep going.
Lets not be so serious. Have a beer, kick back and relax.
103. 882MB
What do you mean keep going! You love to argue!
Please, you are all being the utmost un sophisticated right now.
105. 882MB
Yes wishcasterboy you can blame it on Randrewl he just cannot stop arquing i stop and he keeps on!!!!!!!!!!!!
106. 882MB
I like that one cyclonebuster!
Doesn't matter what I think, just stop pissing each other off!
all of you...go to the idiot blog and learn some respect for your fellow idiots....
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/images/storm-of-century-01.gif

Some call it the '93 superstorm, some still call it the "storm of the century" but I agree with Patrap (a past blog)it isn't the SOTC anymore.
I'm out of here. I guess i'll talk to you all if you haven't been banned by the time I return.
111. 882MB
Thats what i was going to say earlier this is a weather blog not an arguing blog! Well changing subject I still remember the sorm of the century, was the superstorm of 93 on an EL NINO year!
Hi, anyone there ?
"Forests can raise earth's temperature: US study"

I thought deforestation raised the temperature... barren land absorbs more sunlight.
Cyclone, a few weeks ago Dr. Masters said he would disscus the 2006 season in some detail. Did he ? Did I miss it ?
No, he never did.
But, by the same token,barren land gets cooler at night.
Utor has an eye again:



...and is undergoing rapid intensification...

WWPN20 KNES 120338
SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
WEST PACIFIC OCEAN MTSAT VIS/IRDAY
.
DECEMBER 12 2006 0233Z
.
14.5N 115.3E T5.0/5.0/D2.0/18HRS UTOR (25W)
.
PAST POSITIONS...14.0N 117.1E 11/1433Z IRNIGHT
13.3N 118.2E 11/0233Z VIS/IRDAY
.
REMARKS...SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY. EYE WITH LG SURROUND HAS
E NO. OF 5.0. +.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR 0W EYE WITH WHITE SURROUND.
DT=5.5 MET=4.5 FT BASED ON PT OF 5.0.

T5.0 is 90 kts.
Did you mean 2007 Pottery?
There isn't much to talk about on the 2006 hurricane season in a good way cause it was very quiet. :)
Utor does look like he's filling in the gaps.
Vietnam to get hit by another Typhoon? Or is it turning north?
I think another way forests can cause warming is by covering up the ground in the winter, especially evergreens (snow slides off them; snow is highly reflective and promotes cooling instead of warming - if it is not covered up by leaves and branches).
thanks weatherboy, I wonder why he did'nt...... I thought that forests cooled the place down, which is what I thought was needed, now I learn that I've been contributing to global warming by planting ????????? I'll get out my chainsaw in the morning, first thing........
There is a vicious cycle for the arctic. The Ice pack is getting smaller every year (in summer) because of Global Warming and if there is less snow well it will get even warmer because snow is highly reflective as you said Michael.
Forests cause warming because the branches can act like a canopy;not letting the heat radiate away at night as it would in a desert.
The latest forecast is weird - it makes a sudden left turn towards Vietnam and dissipates offshore (25 kts by the last forecast point):


Click to enlarge
Go Pottery!!
Pottery...Good evening. Ready with the chainsaws here my friend....LMAO!
Wishcaster, no, dr. m. said he would discuss why 2006 storms tended to fall apart in the Atlantic
JTWC is calling for it to move too far northward and encounter very hostile shear. The sharp turn left is because it will be steared by the lower level winds rather then the upper level winds as it rapidly weakens.
So forrests are warmer at night and barren lands are colder at night and vice versa during the day. What is better, no trees or just trees or a good combination of both? Probably combination...
I'm a tree hugger at heart...LOL!
Forests cause warming because the branches can act like a canopy;not letting the heat radiate away at night as it would in a desert.

You've been listening to too many Al Gore speeches man.
Just stop fighting Earth, that's what I think needs to be done.
Did, you see the image on the right:Poor for cooling,lots of trees
It's as hard as it sounds though.
The enemy!



We are straying from the point here..TROPICAL FORESTS ARE GOOD for all aspects of climate and overall survival. They create stable, natural environmental modifiers to deal with most of the stuff we are doing to screw the place up. But to say that they will help by warming the atmosphere is out of sync..........
In a desert,you have ideal conditions for extreme heat by day, and extreme cold at night:calm winds,no clouds, and high dewpoint depressions
I'm not talking about global warming,I'm just saying:Forests do not get as cold at night as barren land;all else being equal.
By the way,wishcaster,you won the forecast contest.My low temp was way off.
Posted By: Wishcasterboy at 10:31 PM CST on December 11, 2006.

Just stop fighting Earth, that's what I think needs to be done.


Exactly! Also, if you read CB's link, it says that forests are bad at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. The reason why deforestration is bad is because trees adsorb CO2 and buring releases CO2 (it also destroys habitats and all kinds of other stuff like that).
I'm having fun with the idea.

NOT in serious mode.
So go live in a desert Kris...you will soon find out the idiocy of those thoughts.
Randrewl, how are things man.
Rand -- you ignorant sl__:

The last thing the right reverend Gore would say is that forests cause warming -- whoever posted the proposition that forests cause global warming needs to finish going through puberty, then learn how to read ALL of an article or publication, then post. Jeez.
Posted By: weatherboykris at 10:36 PM CST on December 11, 2006.

In a desert,you have ideal conditions for extreme heat by day, and extreme cold at night:calm winds,no clouds, and high dewpoint depressions


Right; forests help moderate temperatures, also, cutting down forests can lead to desertfication and changes in local climate patterns.
Listen to Al Gore....he wants another sheet of ice covering the North American continent. Now how practical is any of this?
Yeah, yeah Pottery....real fine here. How's about you and yours?
Good job Oreo.
But Oreo - you forgot that trees also increase the oxygen in the air
From Colombia Encyclopedia:
The Sahara has one of the harshest climates in the world. Located in the trade winds belt, the region is subject to winds that are frequently strong and that blow constantly from the northeast between a subtropical high-pressure cell and an equatorial low-pressure cell. As air moves downward from the high-pressure into the low-pressure cell, it becomes warmer and drier. The desiccating and dust-laden winds are sometimes felt north and south of the desert, where they are variously known as sirocco, khamsin, simoom, and harmattan. The northern slopes of the Atlas Mts. intercept most of the moisture from winds blowing inshore from the Mediterranean Sea.

Border zones on the north and south, where the desert merges with the steppe, receive about 10 in. (25 cm) of rain a year with some seasonal regularity, but over most of the region rainfall is sparser, with an average annual total of less than 5 in. (12.7 cm); rainfall is usually torrential when it occurs after long dry periods that sometimes last for years. The region's low relative humidity rarely exceeds 30% and is often in the 4% to 5% range.

Daytime temperatures are high; Azizia, Libya, recorded the world's highest official temperature in the shade (136F;/58C;) in Sept., 1922. Heat loss is rapid at night and a diurnal range of 86F; (30C;) is common. Freezing temperatures are not uncommon at night from December to February.
So, we cut down all the trees, scorch all the grass, then we'll solve global warming. Call the president, he'll believe you.
That Oreo guy makes sense...in an idiotic way!
Trees are our planets lungs! The sun is the brain and water is blood...
And my point is proven.The same conditions needed for high daytime temps are also needed for low nighttime temps.Deserts have these.
I have flame throwers and chainsaws ready to go...tell me where?
Posted By: weatherboykris at 10:36 PM CST on December 11, 2006.

In a desert,you have ideal conditions for extreme heat by day, and extreme cold at night:calm winds,no clouds, and high dewpoint depressions


You have also forgotten that we have developed in many areas of the desert. If you have an abundance of roads (asphote (sp)), the desert is not allowed to cool off at night. Additionally, you need to live in the desert in the summer. 115 is hot.
I think you can survive longer in the Sahara than in Antartica.
Kris...your point ain't shit! That is so idiotic....even I can't believe it.
weatherboykris -- but is your point that you want to make the world uninhabitable unless you have natural resources to control your climate?
Before we, in all of our billions, started messing with the earth, everything was in equilibrium; that is how the earth should be restored (too late for some species though).
Start in my backyard -- darn thing is overgrown. Too much oxygen - - - can't breathe - - -like a giant blanket - - -getting hotter - - -must escape to Phoenix.

(with cudos to ricderr who types like this all the time)
Excellent Rand, all is as it should be. Fabulous tropical day today, and the place is slowly drying out after 4 days of constant rain..........
I think you can survive longer in the Sahara than in Antartica.

Try living through a sandstorm.
Beer got me thru The Artic in 84..Good Norwegian Beer!..LOL!s
We are just overpopulated... if there were 2 billion instead of 6, the earthe would be normal cause we wouldnt have such a high demand for natural resources.
I'm not talking about global warming or climate change,all I said was that deserts are cooler at night then forests.
I think that this is worse than 115 degree dry heat (right before a monster storm plowed through my area):

Ballwin, Ballwin, MO
Temperature: 101.5 F / 38.6 C
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 55%
Dew Point: 83 F / 28 C
Wind: 0.0 mph / 0 km/h
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph / 14 km/h
Pressure: 29.88 in / 1011.7 hPa
Heat Index: 130 F / 54 C
Visibility: 6.0 miles / 9.7 kilometers
UV: 6 out of 16
Clouds: Scattered Clouds 4500 ft / 1371 m
(Above Ground Level)
Try living through a sandstorm.

Frostbite!? -80F with the windchill and hurricane for winds. Try that.
I for one ain't cutting down any trees.

Utor models



Credit~ MIT

It should be interesting to see the 00Z runs.
The Isotoners werent issue either.Only a Jarhead from Nawlins would have a painters hat..a Bandana a robe..and a Pizza under his rack..and be considered no big deal...LOL!
On the other hand, people were not meant to live in Antarctica; good thing that we have left it alone.
cover your face with something thin enough to let air in, and thick enough to kep the sand out.

Otherwise choke!
Attention to detail a met must.too
Look,I'm not in a global warming debate.I saw someone say something about forests being a warming effect.I then explained to them why.I'm not talking about climate,I'm not saying forests are causing global warming.All I said was that deserts are colder than forests at night.
You are right Michael - 101 with 55% humidity. taint no fun at all. I just remember the standing joke in Phoenix was: The temp is 116 but it is a dry heat. Either way. It is hotter than hades
I love this
Warm down under..Link
Frostbite!? -80F with the windchill and hurricane for winds. Try that.

thank you. As I said before, neither are inhabitable without burning some source of fuel to control the environment.
I love this

LOL!
Thats not cold..thats a nice day there.
Fabulous tropical day today, and the place is slowly drying out after 4 days of constant rain..........

I am overjoyed to hear that Pottery. It was beautiful here today also....mostly sunny..couple sprinkles and 73. Perfect!
Good point Steve! We just need to have more wars! That will solve the population problem...LOL!
We are just overpopulated... if there were 2 billion instead of 6, the earthe would be normal cause we wouldnt have such a high demand for natural resources.

Okay - which part of the population would ya like to kill off first? Are is not part of your assumption?
-33C... it was -45C in the Yukon about 3 weeks ago.

It IS summer there (south pole)...
OK guys -- they win. These guys are much bigger idiots than we could ever be. I am shamed and in awe. Ya'll could become idiot Gods. I shall now slowly and himbly retreat to my lair and attempt to salvage what is left of my idiotic sanity.
Saudi Arabia is probably one of the worst places to live:

Outdoors in open conditions, as relative humidity increases, first haze and ultimately thicker cloud cover will develop, reducing the amount of direct sunlight reaching the surface; thus there is an inverse relationship between maximum potential temperature and maximum potential relative humidity. Because of this factor, it was once believed that the highest heat-index reading actually attainable anywhere on Earth is approximately 160 F (71 C). However, in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia on July 8, 2003, the dewpoint was 95 F (35 C) while the actual temperature was 108 F (42 C) giving it a relative humidity of 67%. The heat index at that time was 176 F (80 C). This is a full 16 F (9 C) higher than what was believed to be the highest heat index possible on Earth.

Link

Oh, add up to 15 degrees to account for the sun...
SteveDa1 gets a prepaid membership into the idiot blog.
We win at what... I'm not arguing here... I know for some of you that is your favorite pasttime but not for me, I'm just having fun watching you guys argue with Pottery.
These guys I recognise.Who else has been above the Circle?Any Bluenoses here..Shellbacks?>r
And cyclone is on board.

OK -- all aboard!
I became blue-nose in 84..Near tromso.Norway.
......anyway, until further notice, I am going to continue planting trees wherever I can so you guys better watch out..........
SteveDa1 gets a prepaid membership into the idiot blog.

Thank you I shall use it wiely. ;)
Even thought I dont know what I did to get this.
We win at what... I'm not arguing here... I know for some of you that is your favorite pasttime but not for me, I'm just having fun watching you guys argue with Pottery.

lmao - how many times have we used Pottery's quotes? I think that you should get an honorary membership\.
Here's this...you young guys as well as the rest of us do not own this earth. That is in the hands of a higher power.
If we weren't meant to be here then we would not be here.
All this GW nonsense results in higher taxes that come out of your adult pockets.
If you really want to believe in something....start volunteering to register more people to vote in elections and change it there. You're just blowing sawdust this way gang.
Plant some good Cypress..We lost a crapload here.
anyway, until further notice, I am going to continue planting trees wherever I can so you guys better watch out..........

Much better Pottery
hornfan - Actually, just today. LOL
Heres something to keep our young engineers busy for a month or two.You should see it.You paid for it.ThanksLink
Slide rule not included


I agree with Rand guys.
hornfan - Actually, just today. LOL

So true my friend. He actually said something intelligent and I did not want it go to waste. lol
OK so I can't get an Amen here?
Amen Brother rand.
Steveda1, thanks man, I didnt even realise I was being argued with . Just goes to show something or the other.
Thank you Horn...For a second there I thought I was an idiot.
This view most dont see.The breach sealed and reinforced.Was not nice place ..oh ..for bout a month.w
BTW I was sent here to bring you home Rand.

Amen
That water looks blue Pat.
Phase 2..the cofferdamn in place6
Is everything back to normal down there in New Orleans after Katrina? I haven't heard about that city for a while...
It will take years Steve.
Sorry if I'm not up to date on the situation but I am way up in Canada.
Many many years.
The floodgates going in to keep the surge out.Mo Big Work.8
Years? wow... I didn't know ONE storm could damage a city so much to the point that it takes years.

Sorry if I'm not up to date but I live way up in Canada.
If you plant trees, here is a kind NOT to get... too much trouble (I know, since most of the several dozen trees lost in my neighborhood this year were this kind).
Thanks for pictures Patrap.
Steve, are you in Illinois ?
Aint this the Most Scariest Scene.Mayor Nagin and the Corps of Engineers boosting our confidence.Gee..Im feeling all safe and glowing inside.Thankse
No problem. Read this....Link
But the pic was taken from My Parish side.Phew!
LOL...That's pretty scary Pat.
STLtoday... Michael what does your name mean? I think you asked me same question as well earlier ;)
Does it have any realtion with STLtoday??
I thought you might like to see the Leaders of my personal Idiot Masters of Ceromony rand..LOL!
Patrap [Horn shaking at the site of those three]
Nope; it is my first name and where I live (STL = St. Louis).
Steve, OK, even I know Ilinois is not in Canada. Its just that I have a nephew in Peoria and you sound like him...........
Rand...(hanging head counting pebbles on parking lot).
Another old tern i've never heard.
Michael - you are totally correct that people need to be careful on the type of trees that they plan in areas which could incur high winds.
Ok Michael thanks.

Pottery -- what do you mean? --> even I know Ilinois is not in Canada.

And does your Nephew ask a lot of questions? cause I think that's why you said I sound like him.
lmao Cyclone
They get real nasty when ya post these showing the old wall in the Background.And them building the new wall in the foreground.Tsk..tsk...New London Ave Breach.Their film.But you and I paid for it.So im going to show these buttmunches and how they dropped the ball 40 years ago.6
Sorry...we like cocoanut palms in Florida...we will keep planting them no matter what blows them over. That's an idiotic fact here.
Here is a guide to trees than can and can't handle extreme weather (the oak trees in my neigborhood withstood the storms this year pretty well, whether wind or ice):

90 days to get a NEW floodwall going..Hmmm.thats quicker than 40 years a lil.
247. Inyo
planting trees is great but keep in mind that some trees can actually be harmful... can become invasive pests outside their native habitats, can cause fires, etc. I'm really into planting trees native to my area (southern California) - added beneifits is they take little or no care, and they attract indigenous wildlife. Also, some of them such as oaks are just amazingly beautiful trees. But if none of the local natives appeal to you, do some research and you can find another tree suitable for your area that wont cause problems.

(also, note that just because a tree is native doesnt make it suitable for every site.. for instance a redwood might not be appropriate in a tiny yard)

Speaking of southern California, the latest GFS predicts a quite soggy weekend for the area.. good news as it has been dry.. but possibly bad news for my planned camping trip on the Channel Islands. Snow levels will be low, too, if the models are correct.

Perhaps El Nino is finally kicking in. The Nino 4 numbers are as high as have ever been recorded.. but I am not sure how much Nino 4 affects california as opposed to the other areas.
So im going to show these buttmunches and how they dropped the ball 40 years

Do it Pat!
Sorry...we like cocoanut palms in Florida...we will keep planting them no matter what blows them over. That's an idiotic fact here.

Well I guess on a positive note (which is really not positive at all). If Florida keeps gettting hit with Canes, they won't get that big before the wind pulls them down. lol
Oh just wait rand.Im getting the vasaline out.
Correct Horn...we just keep planting.....screw global warming.
LMAO Horn!
No matter what they do it is still a loosing battle until they build my idea!

What is your point Cyclone?
Live in the moment.

Screw the future!
Speaking of El Nino, it appears the the hottest water is in the central Pacific (Nino 4), not along the South American coast (Nino 1+2):



Some El Ninos, like the 1997-98 one, have the hottest water near South America while others, like this one, have it in the central Pacifc; this has an impact on how El Nino affects the weather.
Steve, this could tax my brain here. I wondered if you lived in Ilinois. You told somebody else you are in Can., I said "even I....."etc. My nephew grew up in a tropical Island ( here ) and although he is now bound up in a concrete environment, he is acutely aware of things that are tropically important. Like forests. I think you are too. Am I right ???
Well I guess on a positive note (which is really not positive at all). If Florida keeps gettting hit with Canes, they won't get that big before the wind pulls them down. lol

Florida Panthers and Carolina Hurricanes (Hockey NHL) :)
I'm a big hockey fan...
Want to be a Levee Contractor? Go Here.Bring VisaLink
There are subsurface anomalies as high as 5-6 degrees C above normal:

The least and most important thing on this Earth is us.
Be prepared for a Background check...Link
Buster, knock if off... we can't stop storms (of any kind)... we can prepare for them though.
Michael...I'm not interested in your animations. I'm just minusing them.
Dont tell GOD your Tpin..ever!
It's more about our survival than it is the Earth's.
Pottery - I actually lived in the woods (in a house) in my childhood so I know the importance of trees. I am now in a suburbs environment, so i switched just like your nephew.
Say some more words of wisdom Pottery...please.
OK...I kill myself and my children to save the Earth.....you idiot!
Posted By: Randrewl at 11:25 PM CST on December 11, 2006. (hide)
Michael...I'm not interested in your animations. I'm just minusing them.


Asshole... I am going to war against you... having everybody F-bomb your comments so that you become hidden like CB (and use multiple accounts to do it many times, as well as give myself +'s)!
If we create them we can stop them. It is just a simple transfer of energy. Physics says so!

But the Earth's environment is a complex system where all systems are interconnected. Playing with this interconnection is not good.
That's good Rand, please leave your children though.
I don't worship Earth ....I worship the power that created it. Figure it out.
For those whoLink scrutinize the numbers like crack.Get yer Pipe ready..LOL here.
Many people have tried to control the weather (I think) and no one succeeded and no one EVER will so dont try, please (buster).
We are still getting hammered by hurricanes... but are certainly much more prepared.
All hell has broken loose!
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 5:28 AM GMT on December 12, 2006.

Posted By: Randrewl at 11:25 PM CST on December 11, 2006. (hide)
Michael...I'm not interested in your animations. I'm just minusing them.

Asshole... I am going to war against you... having everybody F-bomb your comments so that you become hidden like CB (and use multiple accounts to do it many times, as well as give myself +'s)!


Well. you can't imagine how much that rocks me boy!
The Bible Page /map for the Idiots in Charge here.Follow along..Keep moving..Lunch is later.Link
He said asshole...that's OK...I have called Michael a Shithead many times.
Rand! What do you want to be? Wise or an ass? Make up your mind.

Be warned, you can't have both!
Thats an interactive Mapee thinggee.Click away.Email um.They respond like jackrabbits.And they multiply like FEMA>Slowly.........
Why did we have to build cities around a river, we could have avoided all this...
A rule of thumb for trees...if they grow fast, they are softwood and fragile. Plant hardwoods, your children will say thanks........
I'm a wise assed idiot....and proud of it! Challenge me.
Another beautiful statement from Pottery. Listen to him boys.
Listen? Thats a pretty hard thing to do in a blog! LOL
Why did we have to build cities around a river, we could have avoided all this...

Good question Steve - remember your history - the cities were build around river to move commerce. Remember that goods were and are still moved by waterways. These cities that are build on major waterways are vital to moving many of the goods which are produced in landlocked areas.
Allow me to sit back and laugh at Randy.

Ha ha ha ha, I feel so much better now!
Its the Biggest port here nummy..LOL...The seat of Oil and Food commerce..er DUH!..The Big creek running down from Minnesota to the GOM..ST louis even sits on it..LOL!
True wisdom of the Horn.
Shoulder meds just about kicking in.too.
I know Hornfan, it was just a random post. *is trying to find words to say but can't find any*

I hate it when I can't write what I'm thinking... oh well.
Steve people built cities at river mouths for very good reasons.its the upsteam guys that screwed up mostly.
You can use that hammer now Pat.
Horn is on it.....Barrier islands inhabited by humans are a complete failure for the humans.
Duh.....Why?.....Maybe because the barrier islands are there to protect the mainland....why are they called barriers?
I hate it when I can't write what I'm thinking... oh well.

Tell me about it.
WCB is english your first language? Let's just say my dictionnary ins't large so I often can't say what I WANT to say. Its a piss off...
Barrier island habitation is the largest drain on the insurance industry and only results in higher payments for all of us just because they live there. Stop thinking 30 years out and do something constructive in the present. Then you have the ability to change the world.
language

Please read my blog.

Be sure to read the comments.
Oh Buster....the only thing we can agree on is the size of your trough!
NICE ONE Rand. Tell them....
Steve - I hear ya. I will use New Orleans as an example. The US paid France dearly for this land to gain access to the Mississippi river. Goods today are still transfered to NO down the Mississippi where they are placed on ship to travel to other parts of the world. To add to Rand's statement. As the port cities expanded, they built settlements in areas which had never had settlements. Additionally, in NO the power that be (in a less intelligent moment) changed the swampland to expand the opening of the Mississippi river to give them a more direct opening to the Mississippi River. These swamplands or barrier reefs were a natural protection from storm surge during hurricanes. I will stop at that. [Please correct me Patrap if I have gotten any facts wrong].
ROFLMBO!!!!
Rand, we are like brothers.
So, See what happens here? You guys get out of line and the troops activate. There's a new batallion in town and I know who they are.
battalion
Horn...that is it. Couldn't change a thing.
.Re. NICE ONE>>> refers to barrier isles.......
Horn - Interesting...
Thanks Pottery. I know you understand that they are in constant flux. That's why they are called in simple english..."Barrier Islands"!!
Millions and possibly billions of taxpayer dollars have been spent just rebuilding the beaches along the Al coast at Dauphin Island and Gulf Shores - both of which are barrier islands that are inhabited..
Just Compensation means if your house was destroyed in Lakeview near the breach..and they need your land and House..as they did.You got post katrina Value.Not Pre-Katrina Value.Some freaking Compensation.Link
You have to know history and geography as well as whatever to understand storm impacts. It ain't as simple as animating a worthless computer model.
Also - I did not get into the sinking of the gulf coast. To long for this discussion. i limited it to the economic aspect.
Thanks Ally and Pat. You're people that have been through too much to not know how to share something on these young guys.
Barrier islands, did I ever say I wanted to live on a barrier island?

Arrest my case.
Over and out!
Barrier isles as in this discussion are generally formed by natural current eddies that result in silt being deposited. jettties, causeways etc change current flows and tend to cause changes in these eddies and that changes the configuration of barriers........
Why don't they just put a huge wall at the mouth of the river (right on ocean) so that the water would not go in the river at all.
The Animation showing the New Floodgate at the 17th St, Canal..." width="425" height="350" alt="e" />
....excess river silt and dredging of deltas etc causes changes in currents as well.....
Thats some crazy chit to put together ...enjoy.I think I pulled a groin trying to post that sucker!
Steve,,,,,WHAT ????
....excess river silt and dredging of deltas etc causes changes in currents as well.....

Talking to me? Well the wall can be open or closed...
Storms alter the shape of the coastline topside as well as along the ocean floor..ex. Dauphin Island is a barrier island that is protected by another barrier island - Sand Island..which over the years has been torn apart by storms..the relation of Sand Island to Dauphin Island changes with each storm and after Katrina, you can almost walk to Sand Island instead of having to take a boat..the currents created by the shifts in the sand can cause erosion to houses futher down the beach. This summer your house maybe 10 ft. from the water and after the next storm you maybe at the waters edge.
Heres a reference overview.Click to eLinknlarge
Why don't they just put a huge wall at the mouth of the river (right on ocean) so that the water would not go in the river at all.

I am not sure - what kind of wall you are talking about. The ships have to flow out.
Listen to Ally and Pat....They have lived it. Me? I'm just an idiot.
Horn is our resident mouthpiece...listen to her or else.
I am sorry Steve..just don't see a big wall going up off of Alabama..the shrimpers would have a fit and then we would be at war with the vietnamese again!
Bama - I hear ya. i remember going back to NO a little while after the storms. We were traveling to the North SHore (on the other side of the lake). My friends sorta laugh at me because I had a confused look on my face. Then, they told me that the marsh were no filled with water which they had not been before the storm. I felt like an idiot.
Horn..when I was young there used to be a public beach facility at Dauphin Island and the water was 50 to 100 yds from the building. The public facility went by the wayside with Camille but today, there isn't even room for a building of that size period. In fact, there is a big dropoff to the beach and a lot of tree stumps exposed which used to be covered by sand.
..the shrimpers would have a fit and then we would be at war with the vietnamese again!

That's what happens boys...on a day to day basis. Keep believing 30 year computer models regarding Global Warming.....then live the reality of now.
Well maybe i'll make a picture showing my idea as a wall...
Sorry if i'm confusing you guys.
Man's best efforts regarding the power of Mother Nature always fall short. Always.
GIANTS IN 07
The Local landfall radar loop.Gulf Coast Aug 29th,Link 05
Steve, you need to understand the dnynamics of a zillion cubic meters of water moving about in areas where there are restrictive phenomena. Islands and stuff. Bottom contours. I live close to the mouth of the Orinoco River, and sometimes when I am at the coast I wonder how come this island is here at all..........
Steve..God gave all of us brains (some more than others)on how to build things, etc...but there are somethings that we can't change and the weather is one. Monster storms have been going on for centuries and will continue to do so - with or without global warming. It is all part of the scheme of things..and what God has laid out for mankind..I am not saying that your wall wouldn't work somewhere but the environmental impact would do more damage than good. Man just needs to learn to respect nature..
The global computer models....only slightly accurate 3 days out. So the young people place all their beliefs on that. Then you are always wrong. When will you guys learn to pull out a surface chart and do it yourself?
Probably never...because you grew up with computers. Think about it.
The ONLY video of the Breach at the 17th St Canal...its exactly 9am..just as the below radar loop ends.
Lurking and learning I hope guys! This won't happen much. You are fortunate for us to take the time to give this to you all....so Merry Christmas.
I'll mix a stiff one on that, allybama, well said...
St Bernard Parish just east of New Orleans.The only Storm Surge footage youll ever need to see.Came up in 30 minutes.
I probably do need to know physics and it is not something I will ACTUALLY think of building like buster... It was just another thing I can't find words for. Lets sya random idea.
Ally is really my younger sister....but I promised not to tell.
Thats the Guy who took the FEMA trailer to DC,Rocky Vacarella....his ordeal is all you need to see.Im going to bed.They ALL survived.
tks pottery...

yea, Rand only lets me speak occasionally..
Steve - no worries. You have to understand the geography of New Orleans. And I know this description will make people cring because it will not be techically correct. NO is basically adjacent to Lake Poncatrain with its point adjacent to the Mississippi where the port is. It is below sea level. Although many people describe NO as in a bowl, it is more like a cafeteria tray. Below NO are other cities and swamp or marsh lands. These marsh lands are what I was talking about earlier. The city has been protected by a set of levee systems which were maintained by the Army Corp of Engineers (I will not go into this issue - Patrap area) and a pumping system which was been in place for decades. A gate system (which would probabaly never fly politically in Louisana) may, and I say may, protect any surge from the mouth of the Mississippi but it would not prevent the surge on a direct hit. Remember NO did not take a direct hit from Katrina. The eye went up the Pearl River which is around Slidell LA on the north shore of the Pontchatrain. Mississippi and Alabama got the dirty side of the storm. Sorry the comment was so long.
sleep well Patrap.....
As Bama stated, the storms have always been here and always will. Galveston at one point was considered a rival port to NO in the early 1900s. Then the Cane came. Houston drugged the channel and now it is the port of Houston.
Good night Patrap
Bama, create a nom de plume, he'll never know its you, heheheh
Good night Patrap..tks for sharing the video..
I read the whole thing even if it was long :)
The point is, I dont want to be an engineer and I certainly dont know about the geography of the area so what I say doesnt make any sense. Just forget what I said, lol (about the wall) although I have some good points in mind. It is a difficult area to understand...
pottery..you are sneaky..i like! lol
I hear Steve - it is a difficult issue. Not only the science, but also the political landscape and the people issues. Have a good evening. I have to finish some research before I can go to bed. Take care. Good night everyone.
Glad to see ya got to view it.YAll get some sleep too.Gnight.
Steve...it ain't hard to understand. You can't do that. Real simple. The folly of man is eventually overcome by the power of nature.
Gnite all....thanks for your input.
your're doing OK steve, but the point is that one day the ocean will eat your wall, just like it ate the levies, because we dont maintain these things. We get complacent and hope for the best and then BOOOOM...
One last thing..there is a lake over at Gulf Shores and the water of mixed..scientists have discovered by studying the silt in the lake that there was a great hurricane about 500 years ago of magnitude that we have never seen - not even with Katrina or Rita..So the possibility exists that there could be another such storm within the next century. How they can tell this I don't know..I will try to find that article and post one day.
Thanks for all the comments hornfan, goodnight and see you soon.
Later Drewl....
Good night to all of you..am headed to bed as well..
Pottery - probably but if the "wall" had sections that open with when water pushes against it. When there is a storm surge the sections are locked and cant open. OF course it would require very strong material. I dont know if you are with me with the sections...
Me too, its been fun................
Ok... well bye everyone I'm off too then.
Steve..give it up! lol...if we have a hurricane in the U.S. make landfall next year, I suggest that you hit the beach BEFORE the storm hits and then after it has hit..better yet..maybe you should stay in a highrise on the beach to get a glimpse of what we are talking about..
joshua fought the battle of jericho and the walls came a tumbling down...
Steve, I'm trying to get to bed !!!!! But yeah, you can indeed stop the water coming in , or going out , but you have to achieve both at the same time in a hurricane. Rainfall is creating an enormous amount of runoff while the sea level has risen up 20 feet or so, with battering waves. Thats the prob.
Good night Allybama. I'm gone this time..........
Go to bed! I won't bug you guys with this thing anymore as it is probably a bad idea and we will never be able to control what the weather wants done...
Have a good night ally and pottery.