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PBS Special

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:24 AM GMT on November 21, 2005

The PBS documentary program Frontline will be airing an episode about Hurricane Katrina on Tuesday, November 22, 2005, at 9 pm. From the PBS press release on this episode:


In the wake of Hurricane Katrina, FRONTLINE investigates the chain of decisions that slowed federal response to the devastation in New Orleans. The film exposes how and why federal and local officials failed to protect thousands of Americans from a broadly predicted natural disaster and examines the state of America's disaster-response system, restructured in the wake of 9/11, on The Storm, airing Tuesday, November 22, 2005, at 9 P.M. EST on PBS (check local listings).

FRONTLINE correspondent Martin Smith (Private Warriors) interviews a comprehensive lineup of key participants from New Orleans to Washington, including former Federal Emergency Management Agency Director Michael Brown in his first televised interview since he resigned. Other interviewees include Louisiana Gov. Kathleen Blanco, New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin, former Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge and former Deputy Secretary James Loy.


Also at 8 pm EST the same night, PBS is airing a NOVA episode on the science of Hurricane Katrina. The show is called Katrina: Storm That Drowned a City. From the press release:


In less than 12 hours on August 29, Hurricane Katrina transformed a city into an uninhabitable swamp. NOVA investigates a shaken New Orleans in the storm's aftermath, providing a penetrating analysis of what science got right, what went wrong, and what can be done in the future, punctuated with moving eyewitness testimony and exclusive expert interviews.


Both Frontline and NOVA have a history of producing excellent shows, and both of these programs should be far more worthy of watching than last Sunday's awful "Category 7: End of the World"! I can't really believe this, but my co-worker's daughter is going to watch this movie in her middle school science class. The educational value of this movie was less than zero. It falls in the realm of bad science fiction, like the 2004 disaster epic, The Day After Tomorrow. FYI, the basic premise of Category 7: End of the World--that two huge storms can collide and combine, producing one awesome monster storm--is wrong. When two storms of approximately equal strength approach each other, they tend to rotate around a common center, then go their separate ways, in a process called the Fujiwara Effect. In rare cases they may merge into one storm, but the resulting storm will not be stronger than either of the original two storms, since wind shear from each storm will affect the other. More commonly, when two storms interact, one will destroy the other with its wind shear. This is what Hurricane Wilma did to Tropical Storm Alpha this year.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Jeff ... Thank you for the sane comments. I myself cannot believe the stupidity that ends up on the screen in the so-called 'name of science' .. when it's not even good Sci-Fi !! I refuse to watch the stuff anymore.

The NOVA and FrontLine pieces will be good .. no doubt.

Thanks again ...

les O'fieldstream
Very interesting topic (Fuhiwara Effect), I always assumed that the two storms could merge and create a single stronger superstorm, but that is what I get for watching that movie The Perfect Storm.

I missed Cat. 7, but have heard it wasn't anything amazing. Just from hearing the title, if the netwrok was gonna pick such a cheesy title (refering to a cat 7 hurricane), I knew it was gonna be bogus. I did however like Day After Tomorrow, only for the cinematic effects and plotline.

The problem with all of these movies is that too many believe these major storms are bound to happen and fail to realize it is simply Hollywood ploying on the recent increase in larger natural events. The PBS shows however should be interesting to watch, Thanks for the post!
smadsen,

i was glad my satellite dish was out so nobody would put Cat 7 on my tv... not really, nobody i know would watch it... i also enjoyed parts of Day After... but the wolves got on my nerves... lol...

ugh.. now to try and figure out what my weather will be like today...
oh, i just noticed today's post is from dr. masters... hope you're enjoying your vacation....

mouseybabe
After spending 21 days with the Red Cross in Mississippi, Gulfport to Bay St. Louis to be exact, and taking a day off to visit New Orleans, I realize how much the media goes for "sexy" stories rather than the less "sexy" but real reporting. On my "day off" I left the utter devistation of the Mississippi coastline to have a very nice lunch in the French Quarter, walk an intact Burbon Street, drive through the Garden District (again, little damage), and then return to the horror of the reality of Katrina's devistation of Mississippi. Most of the damage in New Orleans was caused by flooding due to the breach of the levies. Mississippi's damage was because of a huge storm surge as well as horrendous wind damage. It will be interesting to see how PBS spins the storm story!

OH, I just got back from Isla Mujeres on Friday, and can report that although the Island was heavily damaged by Wilma the Mexicanos have cleaned up and repaired 95% of the damages - Isla Mujeres is ready to show tourists a great time this season - IF THEY GO! FEMA needs to take lessons from the actions of the great folks on Isla Mujeres! Cancun is not doing such a good job of repair as they still have many utility outages and visible damage to structures and landscapes. I didn't get to Playa or Cozumel, but I have heard that they are still heavily damaged, especially Cozumel. Summary: Carribean vacation is a great idea this year if you go to the right destination - and Isla Mujeres is it!
I thought Category 7 was something about falling "chunks of mesosphere" interacting with urban heat islands? (Category 6 was the one about two storms combining)
Oh yes, go away and enjoy your vacation, Dr. Masters, it's a vacation! But thanks for the post :) .
Today it's MORE GAMMA RAIN!

www.coralbeachinn.com

At this minute it's raining buckets--STILL on the Bay Islands. I KNOW you don't see it on the sat photos--but we got dumped on and blown around AGAIN last night--still have no power from the storm that passed thru last night--and are told it may be repaired by this evening--just in time for our usual nightly storm that crops up with heavy wind blowing and rain.

But it's still raining and blowing right now, so I doubt we'll see power today either. Power poles are just falling over in wind gusts from ground that too wet to hold them anymore.

Now they say another front is forming.

GEESH!

And you want to move to outer space to avoid the effects of global warming? That's easier that putting an e-name and password into a website that's free?

If we did pollute a bit less--re-cycle a bit more--could it do any harm to try to at least slow down the damage to THIS planet?

Maybe you should visit the islands and crank my generator for awhile?

Also Google global warming and get a clue as to why this is important wouldn't hurt either?

Again, just an idea to add your name to try to help the movement at stopglobalwarming.org to slow down ALL of the damage pollution (and maybe just our self-centered bad manners) are doing to THIS planet--if anyone cares. If not, well--I'm not sad but surprised.
As an FYI, the movie "The Perfect Storm" was actually based on a true historical storm. The Andrea Gail was in fact lost in that storm with 6 crew members. That storm was in October of 1991 and it's probably about as bad as it can get, certainly nothing like a Category 7!

Link To NOAA Story About The Perfect Storm
P.S. - That link has some great pictures as to just how big an extratropical low can get!
I picked up TV guide this week, loser that I am, I needed my 3-D glasses for tonight's episode of Medium, and believe it or not, Category 7 - made the top 20 shows of the week. This kind of scares me because clearly with that kind of viewership, CBS is likely to invest time and money into another show similar to that.

Do we critisize the science fiction on star trek or star wars like we do on these weather thrillers? I thought the day after tomorrow was quite interesting, while the storm violated the laws of thermodynamics, the story raises interesting questions about how climate change and evolution in general occur, we know that climate has tended to undergo rapid changes, not slow, gradual change, does the climate circulation reach a point where it just snaps, and there is a sudden warming or cooling? Can a huge storm aid in accelerating the process? And while the science behind these storms is unikely or impossible, the social crises in the movies may be equal to what has happened from katrina, and what if ocean temps rise several degrees from global warming? What happens if the arctic ice cap melts, and the atlantic looses a source of cold circulation? The hurricanes of the western pacific are much larger and more powerful than the atlantic, what happens if we had a hurricane like typhoon tip on the US east coast?
In conclusion to PBS's show on Katrina, what are we supposed to do when we are faced with a disaster bigger than we have ever experienced. Disasters such as Katrina go a step beyond what any of us have exerperienced so that know-how when it comes along is very small. I wouldnt have a problem with any of this, however when they start critisizing different organizations, I laugh because know one could have done the job any better in my opinion.
Hi all, have made a note to myself about the special.
Thanks Dr. Jeff. Hope you are enjoying you holiday!
star trek and star wars are not set on earth in modern times, so the science gaffs on those don't matter. it's just a fanatasy world. Category 7 and similar movies, however, try to create a feeling of "this could really happen"...and that's what makes them a problem. especially when people who don't know about about science (i.e. most people) may actually believe the movies are based on a real possibility.
Oh, no...just what we need. More publicity and TV shows about the non-event that was Katrina's effect on NOLA, instead of the real meteorological event that was Katrina: 200 miles of coastline devastated by the highest surge since weather recordkeeping began, destroying buildings in some places that were between 150-200 years old.

Prominent and respected academic communities in LA have analyzed the NOLA levee system failures and said that the level of surge from Katrina should not have caused the five canal wall breaks that caused all the flooding, but the failures were caused by poor design. These failures have been referred to in the media as 'levee' breaks, but as to whether canal walls are technically levees is not clear. None of the earthen levees surrounding NOLA failed.

There was an earthen levee in St Bernard Parish, which is a coastal parish, that was overtopped from both sides and will require rebuilding; the Mississippi River and from within the parish, which had completely flooded from water coming in directly from Lake Borgne and the Gulf, from MG GO, and from the Industrial Canal wall failure. There has been much debate ever since the design and building of MR GO that it would funnel water into the canal system in this type of storm, causing the potential for failure to be greater, especially since MR GO has never been utilized by river traffic to the level envisioned prior to its conception.

There were levees that were overtopped all along Plaquemines Parish along the SE LA coast, that mostly held, keeping in the briny water afterwards, turning the lumber from all completely demolished buildings into a kind of horrible soup, along a 50-mile stretch of land, from the aerial photos taken by NOAA, until the levees could be cut or the cities pumped out.

Several lawsuits and investigations are now underway regarding the design failures of the canal walls that caused the NOLA flooding. The design failures themselves have been documented in the media.

All of the media networks, which helped make those 200 miles of coastline disappear from the public perception and focused almost exclusively on NOLA, had meteorologists on staff, and as one researcher told me recently, anyone who was a met knew that the event was going to be a MS Gulf Coast event, not NOLA. NOLA had some roofing material peeled back from the roof of the Superdome and a hotel with a lot of windows blown out. As one anchorman said, on that Monday afternoon, with his carefully coiffured hair and oxford shirt (the casual "I'm working" look, the sleeves might be rolled up), positioned just so that behind him you could see the main damage from the storm, a piece of white roofing material dangling off the edge of the Superdome roof and blowing in the breeze, NOLA had "dodged the bullet." He said this without even acknowledging in any way the mammoth wall of water that had inundated LA, the entire coastline of MS, and west of Mobile Bay in AL, which at that moment had not even completely receded, said it even as many in MS were still struggling to survive the last of Katrina's winds or waiting for the floodwaters to go down so they could get out of the tree, climb out of the attic, whatever.

It is a travesty, and any show that talks about Katrina and focuses on NOLA, without acknowledging that the real effects of the storm were not felt in NOLA, and that what happened in NOLA was a result of the corruption inherent in that city, and criminally negligent construction coming from a long history of poorly-conceived-and-executed designs of the Army Corps of Engineers, of a levee system that left a city at risk, and continues to leave it at risk, is a travesty. The real tragedy of NOLA, beyond the inevitable levee system failures, was the actions of its mayor to throw away, without a backward glance, the lives 30,000 poor people who had no way to evacuate, and, once everyone else stepped in and got them out of the city, his actions since, which state that he clearly doesn't want them back. In the weeks since, stories and actual footage showing the corruption of the NOLA police force and inappropriate behaviors during the flooding of the city have also helped to draw a clearer picture to the public of an urban environment where moral values have long been lacking. As one MS coastal resident said to me, "It couldn't have happened to a better city." NOLA tourists don't come from the South. And you can bet that NOLA will continue to try to suck up endless amounts of money from the government, and will continue to leave the city at risk by not properly repairing the levee system (the post-storm repairs have already been called into question).

This past Friday FEMA made available the maps showing the inundation of the three MS coastal counties by Katrina. This is what should be on TV. Go take a look at it. Hancock County, almost 80% underwater at the peak of the surge. Jackson County, about 60%. About 75% of the buildings in those three counties, all right along the coast, and bayous and forest inland. Want to see devastation? You still can't get into Harrison or Hancock counties along the shoreline unless you're a resident there. People are still living in tents on their slabs as Thanksgiving approaches. There will still be people who have not yet received their FEMA trailers as next year's hurricane season approaches. That is what Katrina is about, not NOLA. NOLA is a sad story, no doubt about it, but not a story about Katrina.
17. OGal
Amen, Squeak
Non-event? I guess I can call my cousins and tell them not to worry about their ruined houses, since it was a non-event.

Whether or not poor construction was involved, and it is involved in all hurricane disasters, the fact is, the storm's wind, rain and waves caused massive flooding in the city, ruining lots and lots of buildings. Hardly what I'd call a "non-event".
squeak, it's people like you who will keep these important facts in people's minds... i know we didn't get anything like that damage from wilma, but was still shocked to find that on msnbc's site, there was more coverage that day of NOLA than of the areas being hit by a major storm... NOLA has become a cause celebre (don't know how to get accent marks in, sorry)... and the publicity focussing so much recovery efforts there is surely doing a disservice to the rest of the gulf inhabitants who so desperately need help... please keep letting people know these facts!
I'll agree that the destruction in Mississippi has been under-covered by most media outlets. No question about that. But that doesn't mean that Katrina was a "non-event" in New Orleans.
mtwhitney... as rwdobson pointed out, star trek et al are not set in the present... as has been the case for many years, sci fi presents a world of things that don't exist... and many things we take for granted were 'predicted' by the sci fi of the past (heinlein, bradbury, asimov, etc.)... i can see some budding scientist growing up wondering whether replicators are a possibility... gene roddenbury was a pioneer of sorts in wondering 'what if'... and we may see things in the future that were inspired by the shows... star trek, with its message of peace and understanding, as well as technologies, allowed many viewers to hope for a better future...

on the other hand, 'weather thrillers' and the like play on people's fears... not the same thing at all... i didn't watch cat 6 or 7, so i can't comment specfically, but i did think 'the day after tomorrow'... while again playing on fears... at least tried to get people to think about what effect we are having on our planet... i was recently told that the us has dammed so much water and poured so much concrete that we have slowed the movement of the earth enough to add 1/10 (i think) of a second to the day... but scaring people about 'chunks of mesosphere' (trying to figure out what they might be) falling adds nothing to scientific debate...

i agree that the question you raised need to be addressed and solutions found... but i think disaster movies are only good if you can laugh at the hokiness of them ::grin::
it cracks me up to see the "communicators" on the old star treks...they are bigger and no more functional than a modern cell phone.
rwd... i remember as i kid reading a sci fi book in which roads had bands that moved at a set speed and pulled the cars along... it never could have happened, but it sure would have cut down on accidents.. lol

yes, a lot of star trek 'technology' is impossible, some has been outstripped by reality, and some may exist in the future... only time will tell...
rwd... i remember when my brother was in college (late 60s) and had to have a calculator... it cost $50 and was huge! it didn't calculate much either... their computers took up rooms (like the ones on 'the man from uncle') and one student's minor error caused an outprint that wrapped around the football field... i also remember the old punchcards that came with our phone bill... i was sorely tempted to fold, spindle AND mutilate them... ;)
Weather alarm just went off. Tornado watch NC
looks like the storm along the east coast is winding up then...
27. OGal
Hurigo, where in NC. My mother-in-law is in Hendersonville.
28. OGal
I just went to aviationweather.gov and saw that there is a Marine Warning from the Big Bend area to just north of Sarasota. A really nasty looking line of storms has formed in the Gulf.
click on "severe" up at the top of the page to see a map
it's only on the outer banks and extreme southeast part of the state
30. OGal
Thanks Rw
squeak wrote:
=====
Oh, no...just what we need. More publicity and TV shows about the non-event that was Katrina's effect on NOLA, instead of the real meteorological event that was Katrina: 200 miles of coastline devastated by the highest surge since weather recordkeeping began, destroying buildings in some places that were between 150-200 years old.

Prominent and respected academic communities in LA have analyzed the NOLA levee system failures and said that the level of surge from Katrina should not have caused the five canal wall breaks that caused all the flooding, but the failures were caused by poor design. These failures have been referred to in the media as 'levee' breaks, but as to whether canal walls are technically levees is not clear. None of the earthen levees surrounding NOLA failed.

There was an earthen levee in St Bernard Parish, which is a coastal parish, that was overtopped from both sides and will require rebuilding; the Mississippi River and from within the parish, which had completely flooded from water coming in directly from Lake Borgne and the Gulf, from MG GO, and from the Industrial Canal wall failure. There has been much debate ever since the design and building of MR GO that it would funnel water into the canal system in this type of storm, causing the potential for failure to be greater, especially since MR GO has never been utilized by river traffic to the level envisioned prior to its conception.

There were levees that were overtopped all along Plaquemines Parish along the SE LA coast, that mostly held, keeping in the briny water afterwards, turning the lumber from all completely demolished buildings into a kind of horrible soup, along a 50-mile stretch of land, from the aerial photos taken by NOAA, until the levees could be cut or the cities pumped out.

Several lawsuits and investigations are now underway regarding the design failures of the canal walls that caused the NOLA flooding. The design failures themselves have been documented in the media.

All of the media networks, which helped make those 200 miles of coastline disappear from the public perception and focused almost exclusively on NOLA, had meteorologists on staff, and as one researcher told me recently, anyone who was a met knew that the event was going to be a MS Gulf Coast event, not NOLA. NOLA had some roofing material peeled back from the roof of the Superdome and a hotel with a lot of windows blown out. As one anchorman said, on that Monday afternoon, with his carefully coiffured hair and oxford shirt (the casual "I'm working" look, the sleeves might be rolled up), positioned just so that behind him you could see the main damage from the storm, a piece of white roofing material dangling off the edge of the Superdome roof and blowing in the breeze, NOLA had "dodged the bullet." He said this without even acknowledging in any way the mammoth wall of water that had inundated LA, the entire coastline of MS, and west of Mobile Bay in AL, which at that moment had not even completely receded, said it even as many in MS were still struggling to survive the last of Katrina's winds or waiting for the floodwaters to go down so they could get out of the tree, climb out of the attic, whatever.

It is a travesty, and any show that talks about Katrina and focuses on NOLA, without acknowledging that the real effects of the storm were not felt in NOLA, and that what happened in NOLA was a result of the corruption inherent in that city, and criminally negligent construction coming from a long history of poorly-conceived-and-executed designs of the Army Corps of Engineers, of a levee system that left a city at risk, and continues to leave it at risk, is a travesty. The real tragedy of NOLA, beyond the inevitable levee system failures, was the actions of its mayor to throw away, without a backward glance, the lives 30,000 poor people who had no way to evacuate, and, once everyone else stepped in and got them out of the city, his actions since, which state that he clearly doesn't want them back. In the weeks since, stories and actual footage showing the corruption of the NOLA police force and inappropriate behaviors during the flooding of the city have also helped to draw a clearer picture to the public of an urban environment where moral values have long been lacking. As one MS coastal resident said to me, "It couldn't have happened to a better city." NOLA tourists don't come from the South. And you can bet that NOLA will continue to try to suck up endless amounts of money from the government, and will continue to leave the city at risk by not properly repairing the levee system (the post-storm repairs have already been called into question).

This past Friday FEMA made available the maps showing the inundation of the three MS coastal counties by Katrina. This is what should be on TV. Go take a look at it. Hancock County, almost 80% underwater at the peak of the surge. Jackson County, about 60%. About 75% of the buildings in those three counties, all right along the coast, and bayous and forest inland. Want to see devastation? You still can't get into Harrison or Hancock counties along the shoreline unless you're a resident there. People are still living in tents on their slabs as Thanksgiving approaches. There will still be people who have not yet received their FEMA trailers as next year's hurricane season approaches. That is what Katrina is about, not NOLA. NOLA is a sad story, no doubt about it, but not a story about Katrina.
=====

Amen, brutha...

Say it with me, folks...NINETY THOUSAND SQUARE MILES...NINETY THOUSAND SQUARE MILES...NINETY THOUSAND SQUARE MILES...
Squeak, I agree with your post...the media focused it's attention where it could show the most human misery and stir up the "who's at fault game"...don't know if I agree on the assessment of mayor Ray Nagin's performance. NO ONE would have done anything better or handled it differently, given the circumstances. I feel he was the 1st mayor that tried to reverse the long history of corruption and bring a fair, positive business minded approach in managing city govt...as such, it's a shame Katrina happened on his watch.

As far as the problem with MRGO...should have never been dug, but the big shipping industries always get their way...and even with minimal use and regardless of the horrible ecological damage it's clearly caused, the damn thing will probably remain open despite St Bernard resident's protests. We have a similar problem in Houma-Terrebonne called the Houma Navigation Canal...dug so that local shipping and oilfield interests could have easier access to the Gulf. It's one long straight shot to the Gulf...which of course means the Gulf has a fast path to flood the hell out of us. You ought to see how fast that current rips thru with a storm surge. Gotta love all those brilliant engineers.

And now everyone here is demanding a Cat 5 hurricane protection levee ...that will never be built in time. I hope it doesn't...only because, unlike New Orleans which will have to be forever protected with levees, this area's seafood productivity will be destroyed with a ring levee designed to protect Houma proper. Just the daily tidal action will rip apart whatever marshes remain outside the proposed levee system. You can imagine what a cyclone would do to the rest. Since levees block the flow, the hydrological force is increased. Good example of increased damage is the Lafourche Hurricane Protection Levee, lying to our east - all the water is being forced westward upon Terrebonne...and higher than normal surges are the result since the water can't spread out. And no one wants to address what would happen should a powerful surge overtop that so-called protection levee proposed for Houma. We could be worse off than NOLA.

I say forget the levees here. A better, more doable solution is to utilize movable overland pipelines to spew sediment to replace what is being lost on the coast...it's the quickest way to mimic what nature did, since the Mississippi has been cut off.

And the unbridled development on the coast has to stop here.
Sorry everyone...I know this is a local issue.
Thanks for the heads up, OGal......that's a pretty nasty looking line coming in from the Gulf...it's really moving, too...looks like the Tampa Bay area is about to get smacked pretty hard!
34. OGal
Hey Tampa Steve, do you guys have any tornado warnings out as yet. I knew something pretty strong had to hit to have the temps go from the 80s to the low 50s. My son used to be the news writer for Kelly Ring and John Wilson.
And Montgomery.
line's movin fairly fast, will be over Orlando in no time... Oh what a birthday for me!

Link
37. OGal
Weatherspirit, where are you in Orlando??
near Sea World, about three mins away...
ouch! i was getting ready to go out till i saw that radar, spirit! now i need to find out how soon bad weather might reach boynton beach...
40. OGal
So sorry, that it has to rain on your parade WS. Anyway, Happy Birthday. You have some great places to celebrate down in your area.

Mousey, I would think you have at least an hour, but don't count on my ability to predict the time the storms will move into your area. I am canceling the rest of my errands until later today.
Re - rwdobson - Some sci fi movies have been based in the present, such as some of the planet of the apes movies, colossus the forbin project, blade runner. These movies also show technologies that may or may not be possible in our time or close to it. I didn't like that part about "chunks of the mesosphere falling", the mesosphere has very little thermal capacity, it would not be able to influance the troposhpere much as a heat sink, it is well under 10% of the mass of the atmosphere, the troposhpere is over 75%, but this is sci fi. The idea that heat draws the storms actually surfaced after katrina and rita, as some have suggested that the hurricanes followed the loop current in the gulf. Could a cities heat cause something similar? in the new york area our power plants probably release more than 20 atomic bombs worth of heat each day, plus transit, but a square mile of land absorbs about an atomic bomb's worth of heat every summer day, new york city is about 320 square miles. Would someone watching planet of the apes in the early 70's think rocket ships can approach the speed of light, or that a biologic organism can survive approaching the speed of light, when it will also gain mass along with time dilation? Some sci fi is closer to reality than others.

I think the real problem is that movies today are all special effects and less story. If anyone watched the posieden adventure yesterday night, and remembered the original, you would understand, the original posieden felt like a new years cruise, there was much more charactor development, if i had not seen the original, the story would not even be all that intersting.
hello all, interesting reading the post katrina posts.i think at this point i am sick of the finger pointing.i even wrote to dr.steve during the kat days giving him grief for comong down on the authorities so hard.As i said then,i'll say now.NO ONE could have planned for what happened to the gulf coast and nola.As our coastal populations expand and technology advances,this further complicates matters.the entire gulf technology infrastructure was whacked.FEMA hadlots of assets pre staged in the area,but we can criticize the fact that they didn"t hire a brigade of ducks to carry supplies thru 15 ft of water.In a crisis of this magnitude,it all comes down to personal responsibility for us and our families.ok,i've vented again.On my way to Brewton,Al.to see the folks for Thanksgiving.By the way.they're 80 yrs old,and had $50000 damage from ivan.our family got them out of harms way. you all have a great holiday.
Hello all....waiting on the severe weather. These storms are really moving fast
sorry to steve gregory.i meant that i gave Dr.jeff a hard time for his criticism of fema.I had steve on the mind.
not seeing any rotation from the storms over Tampa Link
I would expect strong straight-line winds from a fast-moving line like that, not rotation.
rw..I agree, and I am sure that is what they will get...I am looking for the same if not more over here on the east coast
Hi Weatherdude and evryone else!

How is everyone today?
Hi all, pouring down the rain here!
Great day to be a DUCK!
Tropical Update:
Aren't you all sick of those two words? LOL.
Well we're not quite done yet. TD Gamma is now moving ESE-SE along northern coast of Honduras...some shwrs still being spawned locally, but no hvy convection associated w/ the system. We'll keep an eye on it.

In a post I made 2 days ago stated I felt Gamma would likely be the last to threaten the W Atlantic Basin this year although I was "still concerned about the propensity of disturbances forming near Panama".

Well ... take a look at your Vis Sat imagery today. A new disturbance has flared up N of Panama/Colombia with a possible circulation forming ...appears now near 11.5N 77W. Checked local observations at Tocumen, Panama at 9N 79.3W - Bar. pressure has been in 1008-1011 range last 24 hrs...currently 29.80" / 1009 mb...winds NW @ 14 mph...w/ shwrs in vicinity and towering cumulus clouds observed...
Have to see if it persists. Check back later.
Hi 21, palm, Doc
and as I scroll up, dude, spirit... hi all!
Delta? Yes, I'm ready for non-tropical updates lol
boy this day came and went for me. Hi everyone! Hope everyone had a great weekend! Mine was pleasant. :-) Not enough sun, though...but there's more today than forecasted, so I can't complain...gonna cool off for the next few days...makes for a nice Thanksgiving...
Well, I just popped in to say HI.
Have a great night everyone! :-)
I see the NHC is on it too...from 1:05 EST Mon Nov 21 2005 trop discussion...
" A NEW FEATURE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND IT IS BEING IDENTIFIED AS A N-S TROUGH ALONG 77W S OF 15N. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY INCREASED DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE TROUGH FROM 11N-13N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 12N75W."

Hello LakeWorthFinn! ...and everyone else..I forgot to give a proper greeting this morning when I came on in response to Squeak's post...
it might be interesting to see, Doc, if these two disturbances (TD Gamma and that low flaring up) shows an example of a smale-scale Fugiwara Effect. TD Gamma's headed right towards it. Well, off to work... hopefully I can beat this line of showers coming in. Well, the winds are gusting pretty good, so maybe not. Have a good day!
56. dcw
O.O Look at that nor'easter bloom on the I.R.!
mouseybabe, what's the weather like now in BB, Still getting soaked?
Doc and spirit, very interesting about the Fujiwara effect, since it was just mentioned above by Dr. Masters
Yeah weatherspirit...good point. Might be an old fashioned hoe-down dance in the SW Carib coming up!!! LOL. Who knows?
Seriously, I hope nothing intensifies out of either for the sake and sanity of our friends down there. God this season is unbelievable.

OK...got to run to work also.
Good day everyone.
OGal, sorry I logged off before I saw your question. Next time I post about a watch/warning, I'll be more specific. And, thanks, RW for assisting OGal.
windnwaves...Thanks for the suggestion...it's always better to stick your head in the sand and ignore it. And nothing may come of it..just as well could dissipate. I'm sure our friends in Central America wish this season would come to a close as well.

Check back later.
docndswamp...I saw that this morning before leaving for work and I thought it might turn into something, since there was the beginning of some rotation. I also wondered if the circ (which is still the same one from 93L, really) might be steered south to merge with it.
that area is still pretty condusive to development. i'd be surprised if we didn't see a TD at least before it all settles down.
ok, i'm back... hello to all who are here and a belated hi to the rest...

finn... it's been raining nights here... but now is clouding up really bad... i'm hoping that we will get the cold front afterwards... cold, dry air is just what i need right now :)

mtwhitney... i agree about the special effects taking the place of the story... i didn't watch the new poseidon, but i remember the old one... those films (earthquake, towering inferno) are fun because they have real stories and they're pretty campy... i read most nights instead of watching tv...

ogal... i made it back before the rain! had to take my car for repairs... ugh...

mousey
66. OGal
Well, I think the big rain is finished. The trees blew for about five minutes and that was it. Really could use some rain (sorry S Florida) but we only got enough to wet my sidewalk. The temp has started to fall......maybe even enough cold air for a one paper log fire in the fireplace. Yeah!! guess it is my Northern blood. I have been in Florida since 73 but I still have a little Yankee blood running in my viens. Hex on anymore blobs!! Mousey, glad you got your stuff done...bye for now......off to the grocery.
67. iyou
For those of you who haven't checked out WonderYakuza's blog, do so!! ;-)
windwaves

New Orleans isn't more important to me or anybody else who lives on or near the MS gulf coast.
What do people think of that new flareup in the SW Carribean?
Regarding the recent movies and their call to "save our enviroment", I really don't see it as a major influence on future world events. Sure pitching in will make the world a better place in a phyiscal appearance, but to argue that a clean environment will stop future apocoliptical natural events is rediculous.

Knowing that natural events such as weather occur in patterns over a period of months, years, decades, centuries, one must consider the last Ice Age which occured on this planet. Now unless the Dinosaurs were cracking out the smog and poplution from their factories and cars, something else of a natural event is responisble for this "end of living beings" type scenerio. From my knowledge, it was either a metor which caused the Ice Age, or a natural shift (which will happen again, regardless of human influence) in world climates. Superstorm, ultimate destruction, type weather events will have no part in killing off half of the world as some movies play it to be.

My whole point is that these movies are used to scare people into helping to protect our envrionment. Now yes, it will make this planet a better place, but it will not stop future events which are bound to happen regardless of how much or how little we pollute and damage our environment. We may speed or slow the comming of our final days, but it is enevitable that this will happen at some point, the question only of when only remains.

Well smadsen8486, wouldn't you rather slow down the process than speed it up? That's certainly enough incentive to protect the environment for me. *shrug*
point taken, La. will end up with most of the money too, at least thats been my experience. I hope Senators Lott and Cochran as well as Rep. Taylor can see that the funds are equally distributed. Lott and Taylor both lost homes.
74. dcw
The state of Louisiana shouldn't be given a dime. Give it to the people, the Mayor and Governor were laughable after Katrina.
75. dcw
Oh and the merging storms thing:

Actually the Perfect Storm was created when a strong extratropical system shredded Hurricane Grace and took in her moisture.
I agree DCW.
mouseybabe
Thanks for your support. Wish you and everyone here could make it up here.
I would put on a good lobster feed.
mmmmmm.....lobster.....yum! Evening All, kiddos in bed, time to get back to work
If everyone did show I would run and hide. LOL I could handle a few.
Better watch what you offer lobcarl! lol Does it look like the kids will get home to you for T-Day?
Think so code1. They are giving 40 to 50 and gusts to 65 tuesday night. But good on wednesday.
I'm happy for you! Bring 'em all down to FL (along with your catch lol) and have a nice balmy 73F-75F holiday.
Last day was 603 best this year. damn it
603?
pounds
Wow!!! My mind is thinking drawn butter and my mouth is watering. Good for you.
At least the scenery is good at this job. Had the chance to see a young bald eagle trying to land on a post on my wharf last week. Till he saw me.
Oh LobCarl you are driving us crazy. Tasting the lobster (and Code thank's for the drawn butter), sitting on the wharf all bundled up, the waves whipped up and a eaglet. Hope you get to see him/her again. I love Maine!
I can see quite a few eagles in the summer. There favorite food is young gulls that are just learning to fly.
See...we can all travel to places we haven't been. Just talk with friends. Good pic in my mind hurigo. lobcarl, I can appreciate why you like it there with these types of images in my mind. Happy Thanksgiving!
This morning at 6:00am PBS had a Katrina & the animals special. Covered the zoo, aquarium & humane society's effort to recover pets (which was commendable under the curcumstances). I only saw about 30 secs of footage i'd seen before, the little poodle left outside the evacuation bus. Everything else was unseen to me. During the Katrina coverage i watched PBS, which had by far the best coverage in my opinion. They total informed Mr Brown as far as where people where in shelters & hospitals, on air. They also let the local gov't have thier say on air. This brought about the tough questions why FEMA had cut the communication wire for the Jefferson Parish Sherriff, why corperate or other trucks weren't allowed through with supplies & why people couldn't walk away from NO. ~ on a side note it suprised me that FEMA denied relief from groups besides FEMA for days after the roads were clear. This happened here after Frances, people were shocked & pissed. It had seemed FEMA got the message, as Jeanne relief effort from all organization came in immediatly once roads cleared.~ I'll watch both, NOVA rocks in my book. They did a special on what a cat 3 would do to NO, it's their do. Thanks for the heads up Dr Masters!
92. dcw
603rd, maybe?
Glad to be a friend Code1. I have at least 1 story that would amase you and me that I am still here. But this is a hurricane site.
dcw what is your point. I live on an island that catches between 5 and 8 million pounds of lobster a year.
He's a little boy (15) lobcarl, not mature enough yet to appreciate all. BTW, send me an email on your adventure and it won't take up blog space.
hi, i'm back... lobcarl, i wish i could be in maine eating lobster till it came out my ears! LOL ... i love it...

sorry i haven't responded sooner but i've been away from the computer... i had heard on the news they're bringing 1/4 to 1/3 of our troops home from iraq... half an hour later my son called to tell me that his best friend of 16 years standing is being sent over there right after xmas... it hit me pretty hard, because he's one of the teens i took under my wing when they weren't wanted at home, and i consider him my own... so i am trying to come to terms with that tonite...

i don't want to start a political discussion, i just want to share a heartache with people who are becoming my friends here...

mouse :(
hey all where is ever one tonight?
Skye, I will watch both as well. You were lucky then with Jeanne. After Ivan, it was days before we got ice and water for the population, and we are in a military area. I was prepared myself thankfully and didn't depend upon the help. Yet you didn't hear our part of the gulf coast crying, nor the same with MS/AL this year with Katrina who was far more devastated. Think it is just people that always want a handout for whatever reason. NO/LA just happened to have the masses to make the news. I just don't think that it is possible with all the info, especially the "cone of doom" for some to sit back and say "we didn't know". I am not talking about the elderly or sick either. Talking about the able bodied who do nothing but complain. They are no better than me or anyone else to go out and work for what we have. I do not mind sending my money or spending my time helping those who help themselves. But, I do resent helping those just waiting for a handout. Would have much rather helped the forgotten poodle left by the bus than some I saw on TV. Case in point: saw a young woman with 3 children on her lap who looked no more than 2 1/2 to 3 yrs. old. Three days after the storm, she didn't ask for diapers, food or water for her babies...she just wanted to know where FEMA was with her MONEY!! There were no damn stores open to buy anything. She didn't seem too concerned for her children, and she was one as well, couldn't have been over 17-18 herself. Feel very sorry for the children, but would rather spend my money on animals than give it to parents like that. I feel she would not have spent it on her children. Sorry for the post and will get off that soapbox now.
mouseybabe
I have a in college that is at that age. He got so stove up playing high school soccer that hiskneeswould never pass for the military
son
carl... sorry about your son... i'm disabled myself and know what it's like... this young man is an amateur bodybuilder who played hockey and football as well as wrestling in school... he's lucky in that he's never had a really bad injury... my family always worries about me when i'm having surgery, but that's over in a matter of hours... this will be at least a year of worry (sigh)
skyepony, oh yeah, there was a lot of that going on. FEMA stole generators from St. Bernard Parish officials, tried to steal gas trucks, everything. That business with the communications...they cut down the Jefferson Parish antenna to put up their own instead. The last pitiful few things all the emergency teams had after the hurricane, FEMA seemed to think was theirs to take, rather than be the source that provided additional resources. They were rude too. I just can't even imagine how so many of the FEMA personnel showing up in these devastated areas, came to have that mindset! Something is very very wrong at FEMA. They were supposed to be the cavalry and instead were stealing from these exhausted emergency personnel who had themselves lost everything they owned, and still stayed on the job. That is why MS would never let FEMA come in and supplant its own well-established infrastructure for emergency management.

FEMA booted refugees from Plaquemines Parish, including a woman over 90 years old, out of their hotel rooms north of NOLA, when they had no other place to go, and no transportation, to comandeer their hotel rooms! This was from a news interview I saw that was taken when they were walking back towards Plaquemines pushing the woman in her wheelchair; they'd already walked several days, previously, just to get out of Plaquemines.

FEMA showed up in Jackson County MS after a week, but only to announce they wouldn't be there until at least a couple more weeks, until the "infrastructure" could be provided for them, hotel rooms, restaurants, etc. Kat left about 90% of the residents there without homes. There were no restaurants open, not even any power. The emergency management had held out for a week, doing what they could while waiting for FEMA. At that point emergency personel like my brother had been up six days straight with only a few hours sleep here or there. And FEMA could easily have lodged in Mobile and driven over (Mobile was hardly hit because geographically most live inland from the bay). It was the straw that broke the camel's back. MS politics got moving and over the holiday weekend Lott met with Bush and the next Tuesday, FEMA changed its stance and said the first FEMA officials would be down there the following Friday, regardless (that was still almost two weeks after the hurricane, and even though they did show up that Friday, they didn't start working until the following Monday). You know I called one of Lott's offices at 6am on Tuesday, the day after Labor Day, to see if there was any news. Someone answered the phone. And was happy to take my call. Believe me those offices were maned around the clock for days.

FL sent several S&R teams over right away to help. Volunteers like that were later claimed to be part of the "FEMA" response. FEMA took credit for a lot of state volunteer resources as being FEMA coordinated.

Now as far as not allowing people to walk out of NOLA to escape the horrible conditions at the Convention Center or the Superdome, that was purely an operation run by Nagin and the NOLA police. They put a line of squad cars across the freeway entrance and wouldn't let anyone on it. This occured after a few people realized that their best hope of survival was to leave, and they got on the freeway and walked out of the city. NOLA's excuse for bottling up starving people with no plans to get food or water to them, in the summer heat? That people on the freeway would make it impossible for emergency vehicles to come and go; so the freeway remained empty.
Mouseybabe
The bad thing about it is we have a small school and he had to play the whole game. Should have stuck to math. We had a national ranked math team, not bad for 50 high school students.
pretty impressive carl... what are his career plans?
He is studying computer science at Umaine. My daughter is better at math and is graduating a math major in may
106. code1
squeak, learn something new daily here. Thanks. I beg to differ with the availability of rooms in Mobile though. There were none!! Even the evacuees had to leave for adjusters and FEMA (if you can believe it). Sad, but true. I am plantinum many times over with Marriott and can get in most anywhere even when "full". Had reservations there for 7 weeks before, during, and after Katrina for contract work at a hospital in Mobile. Marriott called, left me a voice mail 2 days after the storm, cancelled my remaining 5 weeks of reservations because of no power. Called them back and they said they were overrun with adjusters and were having to cancel all. I have friends in LA (Slidell) who just saw an adjuster within the last 2 weeks and they have to rebuild as well.
carl, i'm sure you're proud of them both... my husband is a computer programmer and loves his work... as for math, it was my best subject... when i was a senior in high school, i got an offer from lehigh university to be one of their first coed students... i had to decline... i had just dropped out of school to go to work in a sewing mill... life does not take us down the roads we would choose, but down the roads we need to travel to learn the lessons of our souls... i became a mother and am now a grandmother, and i wouldn't trade that for the world... my parents considered my life wasted, but they didn't understand how rich it's been... i hope your children go farther than you have, as mine have gone farther than me.. that's when you know you raised them right...

and on that note, i am going to bed with my scottish terrier, an agatha christie mystery, and a glass of egg nog ;)

have a good evening, all. i'll be back tomorrow (yes, boldman, that's a threat...lol)
9 days to go in the hurricane year
P1010008.JPG
Just showing a lobster I caught in august
110. dcw
Posted By: lobcarl at 1:49 AM GMT on November 22, 2005.
dcw what is your point. I live on an island that catches between 5 and 8 million pounds of lobster a year.
Report As: Obscene | Spam
Posted By: code1 at 1:57 AM GMT on November 22, 2005.
He's a little boy (15) lobcarl, not mature enough yet to appreciate all. BTW, send me an email on your adventure and it won't take up blog space.


Sheesh guys. First, age means nothing: maturity is everything. And it would appear I am more mature than you seem to think I am. The post I made was due to the fact that the last post I could see at the time was "603?". I was suggesting what it could mean.

Look before you leap.
Damn I need my kids to show me how todo this
Just sounded like you thought I was full of sh*t. All lobstermen lie, but I would be embassed that 603 lb was my biggest haul. With the other lobster catchers here.
hey if any one is there i would like to no dos any South Indian Ocean hurricane ever make land fall or this loop do loop out there
Wow, I'm glad I missed the FEMA discussion tonight (and my battery is running low) LOL, FEMA makes my blood boil. I could tell you a few NOLA stories that would make your toes curl. Long story short, no matter who did what wrong, FEMA is a joke and an embarassment to our country. I'm sure there are nice people working for FEMA, but the fish stinks from the head down and PEEE-U-WEEE.
code1, I so agree with you. When Katrina got out to sea after visiting south FL, and my husband said that the people in NO will not leave their homes, I realized the scope of the tragedy unfolding. The animal horror stories affected me more than anything else, I'll never forget their EYES and pain. Just heartbraking, can never get those images off my mind.
lobcarl, code1 and I invite you to visit SEFL and come eat lobster, which is brought down from your area. a 603 would be nice ;)
which loop do loop Zeta?
South Indian Ocean
118. dcw
Lobcarl, if you want to post an image already on the web...

1. Right click on the image
2. Select Properties
3. Copy the adress of the image.
4. Place [img src="adresshere"] with less-than grater-than signs instead of brackets.
119. dcw
8888889 (I see you're back on that username), I think you're looking for this:



Tropical Cyclone Bertie.
how do i get to WonderYakuza's blog link
David, search in blogs, & click his handle
that no ever day hurricane some is not right hmmm can not think of it
8888 click on blogs, find W in the aplphabetic search look for wonderyakuza, click on his name
dcw
I have a picture of a blue lobster. I will post sometime. Thanks for the help.
i see ok how far back
NOLAinNC, you are referred to on my new blog... :)
why do that hurricane look a little lol
88888, please visit my blog, because the people I'm talking about include you too :)
LakeWorthFinn i have stop by your blog
Zeta, saw you, but you were gone before I said hello and commented on a typhoon in Asia
Code1~ yeah, our area got lucky after Jeanne dealing with FEMA. Frances was different though. They seemed to suck at our recources & kept grocery & superstores closed a little longer than nessasary. Fema also wasn't letting supply trucks in once the roads was clear. Luckily, most residents left for Frances & the others were ready.

squeak~ wow, great frontlines info. I heard some of the same from my family spread over MS/LA. It was a true mess. & wow i am tired (it's been a tough week for me that's just gettin a lot better), i can't believe i confused Heraldo out there on the highway filmin cops & something PBS would have covered on FEMA's mess: lol.

Thinking of FEMA ~Saw last Fri (specified south) Brevard was now availiable for FEMA assistance from Wilma. If it is south, than Cocoa wouldn't be included, which is where like 200 homes flooded. I noticed after Wilma Brevard did their storm pick up according to Fema's new standard for the county to be reembursed. No more trucks & lawn trailers built high with plywood, all pick ups were done by WM or local construction or clearing, dirt debri moving people with the huge approved trucks. Our ponfrons & limbs stayed at the road alot longer (this wouldn't have worked for Frances) & if people wouldn't have been able to work (like last year), they would have suffered worse since last year anyone with a truck some plywood & a will made great money for weeks. ~nite all!

LakeWorthFinn sorry sorry come back if you are on her i would like to her what you have got on it?
Okay, just got home and saw some of the posts, especially by windnwaves.

NOLA was featured extensively because it was predominately a human-caused event, with plenty of blame to throw around at everyone. I went into ground zero 2 days after it happened, to Biloxi, MS. For at least a week, FEMA and the Red Cross were very slow on their feet. Most of the distribution centers were set up by private organizations. The only Federal entity that I saw were National Guardsmen, and they set up extremely efficiently. Plenty of blame goes to big corporations, with the exception being Walmart, Lowes, and Home Depot. They did everything that they could to make sure all of their operations were streamlined to make it easier on everybody involved. As we drove into Mississippi, I saw major carriers of freight just pass without at least stopping to offer help. FEMA failed, the local government of NOLA, Mayor Nagin and Governor Blanco, and the Senators and Representatives, plus some blame should go to President Bush and the Army Corps of Engineers. Mother Nature is destructive, if you have categories for hurricanes, than you build the levees to withstand a category 5. Don't tell me it's too expensive when we earmarked $300 billion to Iraq, which we may or may not win... We need a change of the guard to get things fixed... The federal government needs to take care of us first...
With the discuussion of FEMA and their view by the public, I thought I would add a story I seen on the news this evening.

A group of local youths with the Ameri-Corps organization just returned from the gulf area after spending several weeks helping with the relife effeort. I was shocked when I heard one of the members telling how the group supervisor made it clear to them that, they were not a part of FEMA. They were told not to mention any connection to FEMA, but merely say they were a youth volunteer group from the north, since tension between the victims and FEMA were so tense in some of the effected regions.

I am just so amazed at how tension can be so high strung. When a select few individual (?in charge?) of the FEMA response failed to do their job, why should tension exist between the hundereds or thousands of individuals and volunteers who are their to help.

I do not support the FEMA response or their abundance of excuses, but I honestly do not belive that anyone could have predicted the impacts of Katrina. Rather than wasting more time playing the blame game, the Federal Government should have came out at the start of this tradgedy and simply said "we are not prepared to handel this event, we will do our best and do what we can, but we are pleding for help from anyone can help". If the government admited sooner that they were wrong and asked for help, I do not think the tensions would be so high. They ruined their image by making up lies and building false hopes.
Zeta, must run, have to have my eyes checked by doctor, too many typos, LOL. (it's Tuesday 8.30 am in Finland, freezing cold. I'll get back to you with the typhoon, have a good one!
251 am EST Tue Nov 22 2005

...Wind Advisory in effect until 10 am EST this morning for all of South Florida...

The National Weather Service office in Miami has issued a Wind Advisory for all of South Florida until 10 am EST this morning.

A cold front is forecasted to move through South Florida this morning bringing northwest winds of 25 to 30 mph with higher gusts into the area. Therefore...a Wind Advisory has been issued for all of South Florida until 10 am EST this morning. These winds are expected to decrease below 25 mph by this afternoon.

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 25 mph or higher are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult...especially for high profile vehicles. Person need to also bring in lose objects that can be blown around in these winds.

Expires:221500 gmt
VTEC:/O.NEW.KMFL.WI.Y.0003.051122T0751Z-051122T1500Z/
138. OGal
Good morning everyone, chilly here in Winter Springs. My yard looks as if we have had a tropical storms. Little bits of leaves and twigs all over everything. Just a question I have been thinking about. You weather experts out there may have an answer for me. I read this somewhere that siesmic (sp?) activity takes place when there is a major land falling hurricane......is this true??
Good Morning,
Hello OGal, you know many have wondered about a relation between seismic activity and landfalling hurricanes...this came up as H Stan was flooding Cen Am and coincidentally, an earthquake occurred as well as a volcanic eruption! There have been low level rumbles recorded on seismographs as major hurricanes passed, likely caused by the action of tremendous waves and high winds. But true seismic activity (seismicity) - originating in the upper crust of the earth is not directly caused or enhanced by hurricanes.

That volcanic eruption mentioned is a more likely possibility...could have been triggered somewhat by the extreme rainfall - up to 10" and more in that region at the time.
140. OGal
Thanks Doc, I am an earthquake nut. I follow Mt. St. Helens daily. We were out in Seattle last yr. in Oct. when she had another burp. We also lived outside San Fran right on top of the San Andreas fault and got used to the rock n roll. I also have been following the earthquake activity in Alaska. Oh yea, Yellowstone and Jackson Hole activity too.
OGal-
I'm a neighbor of yours, live in Longwood. Am also a volcano nut. Just read a really dumb book about quakes and wave action. Something like "Saving Casandra". Had some good semimade-up stuff in it. Have been to Yellowstone many times and just love that place.
142. OGal
Yea, I know the book. It was written by the pilot John Nance. I have the book.....started it but never finished it. It is written about the Cascadian Sub-duction Zone. Didn't you think it was an interesting concept?? The San Juan islands would be toast if anything like that ever happened. We hiked almost to the caldera of Mt. St. Helens about five years after her big blast in the 80s. If you have the chance go visit her. You can still see the results of the huge blast. That whole Cascade Range is an accident waiting to happen. Mt. Rainier has steam vents that are active. If she blows there goes part of Seattle.
OGal -

Did you watch Super Volcano on Discovery Channel? That's the one about the volcano under yellowstone blowing. I have a brother in Alaska and a sister in Calif., so I get some pretty good info about what's going on there.
144. OGal
No, I did'nt see it, but I understand the concept of the super volcano in Yellowstone. We were in Alaska this summer and stayed near Talkeetna. That ridge down the middle of Alaska is so active.....everyday. California is a whole other story. Where is your sister?? I think Northern California is due for something else major, but this time on the other side of the bay from San Fran. Even here in Florida we have a fault that runs down the middle of the St. Johns river.
OGal. My sister is in Palo Alto, niece in Mt. Shasta, brother in Anchorage. He's some bigdeal with the NPS. I didn't know that about the St. Johns river. Don't know how I missed that! We were all packed to go to Jasper for the summer and got a puppy instead. Will go next year. Dont' know if we will ever get to Alaska. Too far to drive.
Hi everyone

OGal never thought about it before but a month after we, in Grand Cayman, were demolished by Ivan last year we had our most powerful quake in over a 100 years (a 6.9 I believe)
147. OGal
Hey Cregnebaa, I have never been to the Caymans....are they volcanic islands?? Guess they must be. They must be georgeous. 6.9 is very scarey. I don't think it is fair that you have hurricanes as well as earthquakes.
From Yellowstone National Park
Old Faithful Webcam
Today we see the sun!!!

And we have power!!

YES!

And it didn't rain last night--nor so far today.

There's hope!
151. OGal
I understand the puppy part. We lost our big lab this year. She would have been 13. We are waiting for a puppy. Her name is going to be Zoe. She is only one month old. She is a black Lab, just like Maggie that went to the Rainbow Bridge this summer. You have to go to Alaska. We really liked Anchorage. What does NPS stand for?? Palo Alto is beautiful and I would love to visit Mt. Shasta.
Also on the subject of seismicity...
An interesting far reaching effect of earthquakes are seiches...We've had at least 2 in Louisiana caused by Alaskan earthquakes that were memorable. The most recent on Nov 3 2002, a 7.9 mag. along the Denali range sloshed water around in swimming pools, lakes, and bayous here in SE LA. There was some minor damage to moored boats. Residents were startled when this occurred! Saw some neat video of it.

Also the major quake of 1964 created a more significant seiche here in SE LA...I remember as a young boy seeing the aquatic vegetation sloshed upon the canal banks. Amazing to think could have these effects 3000 miles away from the epicenter.

Good day everyone...
153. OGal
FCG, thanks so much for the Old Faithful webcam. It will be added to my favorites.
Hey all =)

How is everyone today?
OGal - I love Labs! My 2nd most favorite dog in the world. We lost both of our Standard Poodles in the last 5 years. 14 and 17 years old. So we waited two years and got another one...Silver. His name is Moon Pie. Doc's post is really interesting. NPS = National Park Service.
156. OGal
I love the Standard Poodles too. They are handsome dogs. With your brother's job you should have TLC Park Service visiting all the great Alaskan parks. Oh, I love the name moon pie. Doc's post was great. So many interesting things that go on with earthquakes. I am so happy we have come to the end of another horrible hurricane season. Lets all kick back and enjoy the holidays. Off to clean up the yard. Bye Hurricane,Doc,FCG, and all. Pensacola 21 you have a great day too. This IS Floirda's best weather!!!
hello all whats ^
OGal.... well, technically not the end yet... don't jinx us! :) I'm beginning to think we will live with storm shutters all year 'round... our plywood is still on windows.. it's a hassle putting them up and down, up and down..

Billsfan-
I'm such a jerk. Last night when the wind started blowing I got the "creeps" and had to go drink something.
21 cough weiner naa it was cold here this morning too lol
morning all...
Bold - It was chilly here, lol.. Hey Weatherdude, how are ya?
morning hows it going
Good Morning, Dude.
Pretty good, here. Happy early Thanskgiving!
Hey, 21. This weather is why we stay in Florida. 60, sun shining, wind blowing. It's like a gift.
Hate - Yeah, been here since I was born.. Wouldn't leave for anything... I just love the beach! Don't like hurricanes though!!
If anyone knows a great apple pie recipe, please email it to me! Thanks :-)
Be back in a minute ..
ok going good hatehurricanes
21 - I love the beach too. Lived on Sanibel, now in Orlando. Go to St. Augustine Beach about every chance we get. Just got back from three weeks there. We're smack dab on the beach there. Only problem is I'm getting one skin cancer after another.
173. dcw
According to Dvorak classifications, we have Subtropical Storm Delta in the NE atlantic.
174. dcw
BEAUTIFUl!!



Tropical Cyclone Bertie
21..doing well today...looking forward to Thanksgiving!!!! How have you been?
is that the indian ocean storm dcw it sure looks like a hurricane cool
Hate - Oh my, you need to wear sunscreen... I will probably have skin problems when I get older (i'm only 21) b/c I love the sun and tan quite frequently..

Weatherdude - I'm doing great, looking forward to Thanksgiving tOO!
178. dcw
Yeah, thats Bertie/Alvin in the Indian. It would be a Category 2 Hurricane if it were here.
21, you have e-mail.
I do wear sunscreen. The problem is from when I was your age. Started getting them when I was about 40.
Oh no... I'd better watch out.. Thank you for the pie tip!! You know, my mother was just telling me about that.. We were wondering if the pie tasted really cheesy or not..
hey hey hey windandwaves im 15 and dont go dissing teens now you hear there are alot more of us on here then you think and we do contribute alot of info thank you very much
21 - It doesn't. Just adds something. Don't use too much. Maybe 2/3cup at the very most.
Hate - Okay, thanks!
talking about skin problems....I had severe sun burns when I was a kid and the past year and a half I have had to areas of skin cancer cut off...one was basil cell (not bad) the other was melanoma (bad) I will be 40 next month
Weatherdude - Wow, I guess alot of people get them...
almost 40, but I feel like I am under 18 LOL
21, yeah, and I never thought that I would get any, but now that I have had one area of melanoma, my chances are considerably higher for getting more
really and were does it say that windandwaves huh adults only i assure you there is a teen lurking right now if you choose to not talk to us then thats fine but we will still talk here and you cant change that
Oh, No, weatherdude. I hope you go and get checked about once a week. Melanomas are bad stuff as you know. But not real bad if you can get them early. I had only basil cell, but several of them. Sunburn too as a kid and lots of time in the sun as an adult. Just stupid.
i think i have made my point
193. dcw
"if this dcw is really 15, that's sad. first i'd rather not communicate with people under the age of 18 on the internet, whose parents might wonder who he's talking to. plus if you are 15, what are you wasting your time on a blog like this for? go find a girl, a sport, a hobby, get in a fight . . . in other words, act 15. you will have an entire life to talk to boring adults, in fact after age 35, that's all life is, chores and talking to boring adults."

I feel that is mostly because people didn't prepare properly. You think my whole life is focused around hurricanes? Hardly. I admit, my social life is poor at the moment, but as for finding a girl...well...*evil cackle*
hey dcw what would that hurricane in the indian be considered a cat2 in the atlantic
195. dcw
Amen, Boldman. I understand, perhaps, that our generation has set a very bad stereotype...which is why we work hard to be different.
yeah i agre dcw ty for the words
sp are you really 15 or did someone just say that
Pressure down to 974.1 mb at Montauk airport--actually surprised that the windfield around the storm is not stronger than it is.

Lowest pressures in the "perfect storm" was 972 mb, and in the Superstorm of 1993, 960 mb.

Link

Couple of other cool links

(animated movie, not good on dialup)

Link

Link

been looking at this page since May 1995 when it was on Penn State website until 2004.
200. dcw
The Indian uses a different classification system, which I am unfamiliar with.

Delta time!

SPECIAL FEATURE...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH RUNS FROM A 985 MB STORM CENTER NEAR 31N40W
TO 14N39W TO 8N36W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT RUNS FROM THE STORM CENTER
TO A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 32N34W. A WARM FRONT GOES FROM THE TRIPLE
POINT TO 31N28W. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO
27N34W TO 20N40W TO 19N49W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 17N
BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 27W AND 45W...AND AROUND THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 24W AND 28W. THIS SYSTEM
GRADUALLY IS ACQUIRING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME.
yeah well NHC needs to move one of its floater satellite links to cover 'Delta'. At 985 mb, it could transition directly into a hurricane!
St Simons: I was just about to mention the 990 pressure in northern Chesapeake Bay at 990, but Montauk has that beat. Wow
dcw... i was just going to paste that in and ask you what it means... i don't care about your age, but you do deserve a smack on the wrist for that leer about girls ;)

now what does it mean????!!!!???

mousey
973.2 mb at Montauk last hour, good Cat 2 reading.
205. dcw
The Saffir-Simpson scale is only used in the east pacific, central pacific, and atlantic. IF we classified Bertie/Alvin (it moved from eastern to western atlantic, so it got a new name) with the Saffir-Simpon scale, it would be a Cat 2. The indian ocean also uses 10-minute averages for sustained winds, while we use 1-minute, so storms are a bit under-strengthed in their advisories. The advisory intensity is 80kt, but the intensity here would be 90kt.
I know some argue w/this, but one can think of noysters as winter hurricanes. Haven't seen anything lately on theAzores disturbance--has it/will it move north and interact with our noyster?
ok, (1) why does it have two names already (bertie/alvin)? (2) which way is it moving? and (3) will it be a threat to land?
208. dcw
And by the way, the cackle about girls was that despite my current nonintrest in having someone to call "ma copine", there are a great many showing interest, and I am good friends with half the cheerleaders :D
BarHarbor is 28.90, how many mb is that?
210. dcw
It has two names because it moved from one basin (the Eastern Indian Ocean) to another (the Western Indian Ocean).

It's moving SSW.

Highly unlikely.
thanks dcw... gotta go argue with a lawyer ... will bbl...

mouse
I noticed the winds too. We need to check the winds out ?50 mile radius from ?lowest pressure? Aren't the winds usually further out from the center with a noyster, unlike w/cane where they are wrapped around tight eye?
213. dcw
My first advisory on Delta, which can, as always, be found here:

Subtropical Storm 29AC
Amateur Hurricane Center
Advisory 1 - 1:30PM EST November 22, 2005

The large and powerful extratropical gale in the open atlantic has become more organized today. Satellite imagery and analysis indicates a warm-core subtropical cyclone with winds to 40kt...so advisories are being initiated on Subtropical Storm 29AC. The intensity of 40kt is based on both the very low 985mb pressure and Dvorak intensity estimates of 35kt. The system has been steadily strengthening over the past couple of days...and is likely to become fully tropical, and then quite possibly a hurricane. The storm is at a rather unusual latitude for November...about 32N, which is normally far too cold for tropical development. The low has been nearly stationary for the past six hours, but is drifted southwest.

The track forecast is a bit difficult due to the lack of model runs and steering features...but calls for a slowly accelerating motion to the SSW through 48 hours, followed by a more southerly track as a strong extratropical low approaches from the west. For this advisory...no forecasts will be issued past 72 hours, owing to both my lack of skill in forecasting subtropical systems and lack of other information.

The intensity forecast calls for slow strengthening as a subtropical system for the first 48 hours...followed by a transition to fully tropical and faster strengthening through the remainder of the forecast period. If the system transitions to tropical sooner, intensification should be a bit slower due to the cold waters. However...if the motion southward is faster than anticipated...strengthening to a hurricane is possible within 36 hours.

The system is not currently expected to be a threat to land areas.

Initial: 31.5N 40.5W 40kt...subtropical
12 Hour: 31.0N 41.0W 45kt...subtropical
24 Hour: 30.0N 41.5W 50kt...subtropical
48 Hour: 28.0N 41.5W 55kt...becoming tropical
72 Hour: 26.0N 41.5W 65kt...tropical
214. dcw
Normally, nor'easters do not have a well-defined wind maximum. The maximum winds are found in a large area from about 30 to 200 miles from the center.
Epsilon formin' in the SW Carribean? The fat lady hasn't belted out her last tune yet!
Definetely some good circulation on SW Carribean disturbance, look just off of NW coast of Colombia. Plus a liitle bit of outflow forming...

Link
217. dcw
The disturbance in the SW caribbean looks very nice, but it'll be shredded by a cold front within 36 hours. Or so we think :D
QuikScat not showing much on Carribean disturbance:

Hey Y'all! Just popped in to check on developments.
It snowed here today, not enough to stick on the
ground, but it got everyone excited.
220. dcw
Yeah. That nor'easter is quite powerful.
I see the midatlanic storm i've been talkin about for a week is comin along ~ still think we got a good chance of it reaching Cat 1. Gotta look at it all more, hopeful i'll get back with an update. I checked it all out yesterday but blogged only on Dr Master's subject:~/.

& i have no problem with the teens on here. Ya'll are great~ at least ya'll contribute to the goals of Dr. Master's blog~ a place to exchange ideas, info on weather, giving us all a chance to learn a lot more. Ya'll are doing your future nothing but good, gaining computer experience as well as using your education to teach yourselfs a pretty complex & diffacult subject matter. At 25 it's hard to find a geek without a girl, girls teach'm how to look hot, if they hadn't figured it out. They make excellent husbands! & really it's a weather blog. The raciest thing discussed in a month was dcs's eye on some cheerleaders. lol
I second Skye's post. I don't care what age posters are. In fact, it seems some of the most immature posts have come from so-called adults.

What is after Epsilon (not that I really want to know!)
I agree Skypony and NOLAinNC..

224. dcw
Zeta is after Epsilon, I beleive.
Greek alphabet: Link
226. dcw
Heh. I'm practically posted on wikipedia for 'Geek'.
i'll tell you what's after epsilon... my nervous breakdown! LOL
Hi, this is important, in case it happens to you. I got my blogs back thanks to WunderYakuza:


Posted by: WunderYakuza, 11:05 AM PST on November 22, 2005

There have been a couple of examples of this last week, and one or two this week, people's blog entries seemingly disappearing and returning them to a New Blog state. When this happens follow these simple rules for success.

1. Do NOT Panic!
Every thing's going to be fine. We keep backups here, for a full day. We're probably going to be able to recover your blog if you follow these simple steps.

2. DO Send Me A Message Right Away!
Send me a message using either the site message system or email me. When you send me a message try to include the steps you may have performed prior to the problem. This will help me figure out what's wrong.

3. Do NOT Post Another Entry Before It's Fixed!
If you post another entry before I fix the problem it could wipe out not only your existing blog entries, but if enough time passes between between the entry and informing me about the problem, it could delete the backup copy of your blog.

Thanks everyone for using the blogs, and I apologize for any trouble that people have experienced, but taking these steps will not only save your blog entries but help me fix all of the little bugs still hiding out there.

Thanks!
::End Public Service Message::
Number of Katrina missing soars to 6,644

Link
Looked around & here's my 2 cents. Extreme NE will get pounded as i had predicted~ RI, Mass, NH, of course Maine & most likely VT. As this storm clears another will move from Canada through the great lakes, but not as severe.

~ The mid atlantic storm ~ less certian this will make Cat1, hard to forcast at moment since the Quikscat misses the center on both passes but currently shows 45mph on east side of center. Real good chance this will be named Delta. Has some more intensifing to do as it moves south & perhaps west. Then as the last energy of the disipating, NW of africa, storm gets sucked into Delta, a troff should hit it pulling it north & shread it. Until then, shear will be low, waters could support a cat3, but this system has to finish the transition to warm & only has 3 or 4 days til it's negatively affected by the troff.

~Talking of shear it's 100+ over fl right now:)

~As for panama. This center has been over land & looks to stay there or head to the pacific. Don't see anything big developing any time soon there.

~& dcw,lol, yes i know your a geek & it's great. Early on i might of played with the bad boys, but i had my share of geeks. What bagged me for life? A hot geek. No worries man, carry on with your teenage life. Little too much time spent learnin? Never~ it'll turn out that much better when your grown.

hello im back we have another system my gosh hows it goign dcw
and Martha's Vinyard down to 28.66"
skye, that's bad for the NE... my relatives live in eastern PA... hope everyone up there will stay safe...

as for our area, i will enjoy our 'cold' front (50 degree low) while they are finally releveling and tying-down my mobile home tomorrow... then if by some fluke something comes our way, i will be more secure...
wow, StSimons... that sounds really bad... any idea what the record is for such a storm?
Hey dcw, teen geeks unite! Hehe....
I don't know the record, but superstorm of '93 was 960mb.
238. dcw
Muahahaha. We will overthrow the evil empi...oh wait. Sorry, was watching Star Wars :D

Delta is looking good, I'm again suprised at no upgrade from NHC.
Soon-to-be Delta's eye is looking a bit impressive.

Looks like Vince...
I think that if we are on this website we are all geeks in one fasion or another. The geeks shall inherit the earth - is that how it goes?

So, someone summarize the systems we are watching. I've been out of the loop for a while!

Mousey, glad to hear the good news!
Did I run everyone off with my geeks comment. LOL, I'm
going to start supper. I will check back shortly.
242. OGal
Please someone fill me in. Is the storm on the East Coast the one you are saying will be Delta, or are you refering to the Central Atlantic storm. I just need to know if I need to start worrying again.
OGal - the central atlantic one, but noreasters can get pretty bad too.
Nahh~ i'm still here & yes i gotta little geek in my blood too. What else can i say with my love for numbers, physics & weather. Though I can't spell & look cool on a pony:)

~I'm also suprised at the lack of a NWS upgrade~ perhaps because the QUICKSCAT missed the center on the 22UTC run again Link. The dark purple flag just east of center says near 50mph.
yeah, nola, i am thrilled because they said they couldn't get to me for another two months, then called back two days later and said they're coming wednesday!

well, i have to get the pies out of the oven... bbl
28.75 here with winds 30 to 35. Did get close to 50 for a while
I'm confused about something, and I'm hoping somebody can help me out. Since when two storm systems combine, they do not get stronger, how exactly did the storm over the Great Lakes during November 1913 get to be so strong? I recently read "White Hurricane," and I am pretty confused as to how that storm developed. I'd misunderstood and thought that two low pressure systems had combined to form one stronger storm. Can somebody clarify?

Thanks,
Lynn
248. OGal
Ok, so if the storm in the Central Atlantic becomes a hurricane and drifts to the south and west will it affect land of will it be carried off on a front???????
Look at the high-resolution QuickSCAT (from here)- I see one 65-knot vector, and it's not rain-contaminated!
No danger to land, OGal, a front will tear it apart (or that's what everyone says).

Re-reading the page, it might still be rain-contaminated, "it's not perfect" says the page.

Does anyone know how to read the ambiguity plots?
See,non tropical lows are boring,a 972 mb system has produced max wind gusts to 40 mph,I am on the west florida coast and we had stronger gusts than that behind a cold front,non - tropical lows cannot produce strong windfields unless theyu have a pressure gradient,therefore they are not true storms like hurricanes which generate stronger winds,by the means of very intense thunderstorms and lots of warmwater and water vapor.By the way,to all here who are proud of being a geek is silly to hear y'all say right out front. I noticed one of you said all who post here are geeks,I am not at all a geek for one,also you shouldn't make statements of that sort as there may be many like me who may have a strong interest in weather and can also be very athlectic and are not geeks whatsoever.There is no law that you have be a geek if you have an interest in science,next time I suggest you think twice before you make a statement.......
What do you mean by rain contaminated,a hurricanes strongest winds occur were it's most intense conection is.
convection*
Well don't believe information that old it can easily be bogus and I bet it was just a severe winter storm not a white huuricane.
Ok so wind gusts to 50 is pretty strong but very isolated,that to correct my post of 40 max gusts.
jedkins,

the modern and very widely accepted term 'geek' is used to describe people who are very intelligent and have an aptitude for science, math, computers, etc... sooooo... you're not a geek because you're athletic? ... i know athletic geeks... however, i am not calling you a geek, because you don't consider yourself to be one (please don't confuse geek with nerd or dork...LOL)...

for the record, the original 'geeks' were people who stood outside so-called carnival 'freak shows' long ago and did things like biting the heads off baby chickens to attract a crowd... i don't think that fits any of us... with the possible exception of my new friend boldman...LOL... gotcha back for that catbabe remark...

mouse
In Feb 1976 a storm intensified and brought pressures to below 28" in Maine (27.92" I believe) And another storm in Jan 1978 went up the west side of appalachians and bombed out to 28.28 over Cleveland, and to 28.23 over Sarnia in Ontario--this storm brought wind gusts to 115 mph and was called the "white hurricane of '78" over Lake Erie area

I understand what you mean but I don't care about the modern LOL,I rather would not be included as a geek just to let y'all know.
Ya well I saw that on the NWS and they said 85 not 115,so that is why I don't trust things of that sort.
Hey everyone,

Heres the latest Infrared satellite loop...

Notice that the large Low pressure currently located in the East Central Atlantic is strengthening as it continues to drift southward. This is evident by the convection (thunderstorm activity) developing around the circulation center which is necessary for this system to aquire tropical characteristics.

Based on the Dvorak estimates suggesting surface winds of at near gale force and the current presentation seen in this Infrared imagery, I suspect it might just skip the depression stage and become "Delta" possibly as early as the 11 pm advisory. In either case, it seems exceedingly likely that this will soon become "subtropical" or even tropical storm Delta certainly within the next 12 hours or so.

The biggest question in the short term is, will it skip the depression stage?

Link
hey Ogal,

Theres no chance in my humble opinion that the soon to be "Delta" will avoid being picked up by the approaching cold front in the Western Atlantic and its corresponding tough which will induce a southwesterly upper level wind flow and move the storm to the NE once they meet up in the Central Atlantic.
Hey Jenkins..Please reread my post in Mouseys blog..you obviously misread it ...

I stated that Wilma had 175 mph sustained winds.:)

sorry you couldn't find anything else better to say than,
Wilma had 175 mph sustained winds,just to correct you.

No corection was or is necessary.:)
what up why is ever one saying 974mb or 975mb is there a storm out there that i do not no of?
Jenkins~ your question about the rain contaminated ~ intense rain tends to mess up the Multidimensional Histogram (MUDH) rain flag which is being used at this time to develop the Quickscat we look at. The wind vector retrievals thought to be rain contaminated are colored in black. While not perfect, the MUDH rain flag appears to mark many of the suspect vectors in regions of probable precipitation, epecially in the tropical latitudes.
Rain can contaminate the wind retrievals, especially in situations with moderate to heavy rain rates.

Link
Hey Jenkins,

I didn't understand the "NVM" abbreviation and I apologize for taking it personally.

Thanks,
Tony
Ya I noticed after
thats fine,I was too quick to correct we are even.
its cool...I appreciate you reading it nonetheless and I must convey that your knowledge of the weather is quite impressive.:)
269. code1
dcw and any other teen posters: Sorry if I offended you last night with my reply to lobcarl. Didn't mean it in a derogatory way. However, I do belive that true maturity comes with living, which God willing, you will have many productive years ahead. I do appreciate what you post and learn from all. The reasoning behind my post is that not all adults know your "slang terms". I, for one, do not know what 603 means as I didn't know what 420 meant several months ago. Hope that clears it up for you and keep on blogging!
Goodnight Jenkins, David, and the others,

I hope you each have a wonderful "Thanksgiving" if I don't talk to you again between now and then.:)
hurricanechaser where are you going come by my blog
hurricanechaser i will send you a e mail
chaser... if i did it right, you've got mail... mouse
Katrina, we were talking about low pressure system, the noyster that raced up the east coast.
The wind has come around to the NW and the pressure is rising. Never got all the wind they gave.
carl, i hope that means you're okay... did your kids get home all right?
code you have mail
could that be come a storm like the D storm?
Not sure I understand your question, Katrina. If you are talking about the system that raced up the east coast, bringing the low pressures and winds, that one is a Northeaster (I abbreviate noyster)--and some also call it a "white hurricane," meaning that it produces snow. It is not a hurricane and it does not get a name. It is an intense low pressure system (lowpressure= storm) that causes strong winds out of the northeast along the coast, often causing coastal flooding and beach erosion. Further inland, if it is cold enough, the moisture brought in off the ocean combines with the cold air and produces snow. The "D" storm, Delta wannabe is a storm in the central Atlantic (you will also here it described as in the mid-atlantic, but that does notmean the mid-atlantic states, but rather midway between US and Europe. Delta--I hear likely it will form--will be torn apart and not affect land = nothing for us to worry about here.
: hurricanechaser if you come back on tonight you got mail
Jedkins you may be right--I remember press accounts of 115 mph gusts in the 1978 Great Lakes Blizzard when I was a kid, and and some sources I googled say they same--but none of the reports I see from NWS sites mention wind gusts higher than 90 mph in major cities.
So When Does everyone Think that we will have DELTA by

It seems Imminent
However the pressure continued to fall in the center as the storm headed NW, and although it broadened its center and the winds went down a little, the pressure continued to fall to 950 mb / 28.05" over Lake Huron on Jan 27, 1978.
Mousey This storm wasn't bad at all. Will see a lot worse before the winter is over. The kids are coming tomorrow, good thing only the morning ferry made its run, the other 2 runs where cancelled.
Where are there links to satellite pics of Delta? BTW Katrina special on PBS starting NOW.
left side of soon to be delta on quickscat
I can't even find any good ones on NOAA only thing we have is Words
ah HA
So if this DOES become Delta is that a Record or Tie for most for most storms in November? I'll need to know for the List
whats up all
they moved the microwave to near Delta
hey Boooold arn't they having a disscussion in your blog? surprised to see you chatting here or are you doing both
well acually i was just there and nothing lol what happened
Hi all,

Is everyone having a good night???

:-)
Well if that an't at LEAST a Tropical Dep. I don't know what is
haveing a good one taco of corse its good schools out for the rest of the week lol
just tuned in after a couple of days away - is the atlantic system you're talking about at about 40 deg W and 30 deg N?
is it me or dos it look like it has a eye
ya i know looks like a Vince lol and it's kinda "out there" as well It's doing a good job forming already better than darn GAMMA
Hey Bold,

I think here they have one more day... They will be getting out 1hr early though...
Someone in this blog even mentioned they saw a "Poss. Epsilon" (in a 7 day computer model) forming YIKES it IS the Season of 2005 SO
oh well every district is dofferent i guess
carl, sorry i didn't respond... was eating ice cream with 'bangor taffy' topping on it that i brought back from maine... good stuff.. glad the storm wasn't bad for you...
I was told that the schools here were to be off tomorrow but they are making up a Katrina day... oh well 1 of nine that they have to make up...
taco, what county are you in?
Mobile County... :-)
as in alabama?
look like we may have a hurricane and it looks good
Mouseybabe,
I live in the City of Mobile and Mobile County, all one thing... :-)
Yes I'm sorry Mobile Alabama,

Sorry about that MouseyBabe
got it... here in palm beach county, the students had 9 days to make up, one of which is tomorrow... the rest were supposed to be at winter break, but the parents with money had planned ski vacations, etc, and raised cane... school board voted that the kids didn't need to make up those days... i guess they cave in to money...
I do understand that for sure, here they will make it up at the end because of Mardi Gras they were not going to lose that at all, goes back to Money... :-)
KatrinaRitaWilmaZata,

Did you get a chance to see one of my pictures on my blog from some of the storms that I chased???
it has a good eye now what is going on
not yet may i com in
Yea go check it out... I don't have much on there because I work for the city and it is real hard for me to even get on here for days at a time... But I do try to keep up, in the back ground and not post that much... :-)
Some may remember that TD 10 was tracked east of the lesser antilles for almost a week, and then degenerated into a wave, and then hooked up with another tropical wave, which was designated TD 12, which became Katrina. The show has TD 10 maintaining an identity that becomes Katrina. Interesting to see how the NHC report on Katrina will read--whether TD 12 will be reclassified as TD 10.
28.55" / 967 mb at Ashland, ME right now
i like it
28.55 that would make it a cat2 or cat 3 hurricane what is going on up there
found a meteosat satellite from Europe, 'Delta' still has a ways to go before becoming tropical--it is quite asymetrical and has cold air stratus and stratocumulus on its west and southwest sides. I am mildly surprised that they haven't started issuing advisories as a subtropical system given the fairly decent central convection, but the south and southwest sides of the storm have to warm up.
Thank You, I hope to have more in the future... I wanted to chase Katrina but she was just to big and strong for me... I'm crazy but not that crazy... If you know what I mean...
Its on now be back in a while...
just a stron noreaster--the strongest noreaster last winter brought pressures down to 28.48 in northern Maine, so it is not rare. A lot seem to get down to the 965 mb range or so--but pressures only rarely get below 960 mb in Maine during noreasters. The lowest pressure in a noreaster in New England was Feb 2, 1976 when pressures dropped to 27.92 at a couple of stations in Maine--this storm is not infamous because 1) it was not tightly wound and the winds, while very strong, did not set records and 2) the storm incorporated a lot of warm air from the gulf stream into its circulation--so while there was heavy rain--there was no heavy snows or blizzard with the storm.
it has a eye now Link
hey StSimonsGuy, - is the atlantic system you're talking about at about 40 deg W and 30 deg N?
they should issue advisories as a subtropical storm. Bets on whether delta will be named at the 10 p.m advisory time?
I am talking about the noreaster centered presently in Maine. I think Delta should be declared as a subtropical storm (the one SW of the Azores)
28.61" (969.1 mb)
'delta' still has a way to go--because of the cold air entrainment on the western side of the system.
dos any one think that we could get to the Z storm and dos any one think we could get to the O storm
central Atlc 986 mb low is near 31n40.5w drifting southward.
Convection has been wrapping around the center and intensifying
during the day. In addition the low has been separating from
the occluded front to the north. A Storm Warning is in place
for winds of at least 50 kt with this system. The low has been
gradually acquiring tropical characteristics and could become a
tropical cyclone..."delta"... over the next day or so.
Scattered weak to moderate convection is within 75 nm of the
center... strongest in the NE quadrant.
excellent update, thank you KatrinaRitaWilmaZeta - is that from the NHC?
It is definitely a strong subtropical storm right now. It should have a name.
KRWZ quoted from the 7:05 p.m. EST tropical weather discussion.
yes i do think it is from NHC
The satellites say it is a tropical storm:

Link
Just saw both episodes on PBS:

I felt the first half of the NOVA episode was shockingly sub-par. (Though they *did* show a few Wunderground track graphics!!) It went off on tangents near the beginning, when it seemed like it should have been focused on the history/science of how the NHC tracked Katrina and her growth. It didn't explain the science behind the storm and winds and surge and so on, like it normally does. It showed pictures of Stan and etc instead of Katrina, the graphics weren't very good (Katrina was too small, for example), it made no mention that the projected track shifted from Florida westward, etc. Too many gaps, I felt.
This all might be because I only watch the science-topic NOVA shows and not the humanities; perhaps I'm just not used to how NOVA covers history.
The segment covering how the levees broke was okay - basically the last half of the show.

Frontline was pretty good, nice discussion on the politics. Lots of new information for me - but I don't really know much about the politics of FEMA, so maybe an expert on what happened would feel the same way about Frontline as I do for NOVA. They left out "heck of a job", which I thought they'd show for sure, though I don't know whether or not it's better off without mentioning it. It's shocking what they did to FEMA, though; seems maybe too late to reverse it since it's been gutted already.
I'm kinda pissed I missed the NOVA show, but I made it home just in time to see the Frontline. Very interesting stuff! It's always good to see that some stations can still offer a fairly balanced report on current events. Very shocking to see how everyone played a part in the mess up. Bravo PBS!

Thanks again for the heads up on this one Jeff!
thanks tornadoty, the storm is looking pretty good (alot better than gamma did at the end)
343. dcw
No 10PM advisory...someone needs to go pound on NHC headquarters. This is CLEARLY a Subtropical Storm, possibly even a very rare Subtropical Hurricane. Wind vectors are sky high, it has an eye, deep convection surrounding the center...where art thou, NHC?
Agree with you Torn, sure likes she needs a name.
Subtropical hurricane is not an official designation--even when subtropical storms have gone down below 980 mb and had sustained hurricane winds--they are still considered tropical storms.

However, they only started naming subtropical storms in 2003, and they may have changed the rules.
maybe an 11 pm advisory, dcw?
347. dcw
The PBS special sucked...they were portraying Nagin as someone who was trying hard to really help the people of NOLA, and that Bush was flying over and ignoring all the poor black people...give me a break...
it has a eye and it is a good looking eye if i do not say so
Well DCW it is true that Nagin did suck and suck very badly, but Bush did ignore all the black people also--and the enormity of the disaster. What can you say about someone who didnt watch any news or read any newspapers (by his own admission) for 4 days after Katrina hit and thought Brown was doing a 'heckuva job' 4 days later? Nagin and Blanco both sucked big time, but Bush did also. It is very hard to imagine he cares about national security except for sound bites when he puts the college roommate of a friend who gave large campaign contributions, with NO previous experience in disater management or recovery, at the head of an agency as important as FEMA.
On another note about Katrina--the people who made fun of Nagin and other officials about there not being thousands of deaths may unfortunately be proved wrong.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2005-11-21-katrina-missing_x.htm
and Delta is looking better and better!
Has anyone seen a pressure for this storm?

Is it eligible for guessing how low will it go, snowboy?

It does look like an eye of some kind, Zeta.
Hopefully most of the people missing are just seperated or else people reported as missing by family members who didn't notify the authorites when they were found and reunited. But there is one ominous feature about the Katrina deaths.....
I think it may be an 11 PM EST advisory because it is in the Atlantic time zone, not the Eastern.
for now put me in for 980mb
dos any one no if we will get to the Z storm or the O storm this year and this is 2005
At the beginning of October FEMA and the city government had a joint announcement that the search and rescue and body recover teams had finished their work. When people were allowed back into the mid-city neighborhoods and gentilly, which were moderately flooded, but did not have the catastropic 'up to the raftrs' flooding, people returning home found 115 bodies in various states of decomposition in their back yards, under flooded cars, etc. The body recovery teams did not do a very thorough job.

On Dec 1, people in the worst flooded areas, the upper and lower 9th and 6th wards, and nearby areas will be allowed to go back to visit their homes (aside from people who have ridden in on media vehicles, people have NOT been allowed on their property in those areas--residents have been allowed in on bus tours only--and not allowed to get out)

I wonder what those returning residents will find.
hey guys, thought id join in the discussion if thats ok with you all. been lurking for a few days.
Since it looks good on satellite, and as it drifts slowly south the cold air entrainment on west side will diminish, I am going to be pretty bullish on Delta and say 971 mb / 90 mph.

Delta is over water about 76 F now, but at present course and speed will be over 78/79 F water in 24 hours.
ok if this has a eye why is it not a hurricane
me no know
would this be the frist time ever that a storm went right to a hurricane and start from a td then ts then a hurricane is this the frist time ever? wow this is 2005 what more can it have
any thougts on whether delta will get picked up by the front or will the front and trough lift up in the west Atlantic and leave Delta alone for a few days?


Any models around?
been looking at this system today andits really quite organized, still needs to shut out that cold air on the western side to develop further. not sure why it hasnt been classified yet...
367. code1
Thx for the update on the shows AySz88. Have taped them both for watching later this weekend. Should be interesting. St.Simons, I share your foreboding of what/who will continue to be found. Everyone is welcome supercell!
HurricaneKing can you tell me why it has a eye and not a hurricane what more can 2005 have in the last run down or the hurricane year?
several systems have started right off the bat as hurricanes.

this is a good example, another November that developed from an extratropical system too

Link
link to the NHC
Stan had an eye the start with too.
KRWZ we could have something like this ;-)

Link
Incidentally, Hurricane Lili from Dec 12-24 1984 maintained at least tropical storm strength for 11 1/2 days, (276 hours) The storm to last longest this year at tropical storm strength or above was Ophelia at 10 3/4 days (258 hours)
thank you
no problem

thats interesting st, didnt notice that the storms this year have been relatively short-lived. last year ivan was a cyclone for total of 29 days
StSimonsIslandGAGuy yes we could it is 2005 so why not
Because so many storms have lasted only a short amount of time, and none have lasted long, 2005 is in 4th place among seasons according to the ACE (Accummulated Cyclone Energy) index, which guages a season by how much energy hurricanes release. The 2004 season is in 3rd place, 1995 is in second place, and 1950 is in first place.
wow its really getting cold here (46), especially for down south lol
this article has a cool composite picture of Alex, Charley, Ivan, Frances, Jeanne and Bonnie lurking off the coast.

http://www.geotimes.org/apr05/WebExtra042005.html
eyeballing it, if Delta maintained hurricane intensity for say a week, wandering around the central atlantic as a Cat 1 without getting picked up by a trough, that would be about enough to have this season set a new ACE index record.
i believe it would need 8 days at hurricane strength to set the new record
Well off to bed everybody have a good night and I will chat tomorrow...

:-)
Thanks guys. That Lili was a wierd one. Let's hope this one stays at sea for 8 days, new record, then winds down.

need some sleep myself--and if Delta had some bumps up to 85-90 mph it would take about a week.

Night y'all!
Nite St and Taco. I'm gone too Time to eat.
see ya later guys
there is a note in my blog take a look so that way you no where i will be for the next few days
Any New News on "Delta" TD 28 NOAA has the same 7:05pm Update
Hey Gang,

I feel very strongly that Time should consider for their person of the year Max Mayfield of NHC for his efforts to warn the people about Katrina, or more broadly name all the people at NHC People Of The Year.
Here is the link where you can suggest a person


With this hurricane season, this is very much deserved. I truly hope others will join me in this effort.
391. dcw
They issue advisores at 5 and 11 during daylight savings, and 4 and 10 outside of it.
392. dcw
I actually don't think Mayfield did an extraordinary job. He wasn't bad, but not over and above.
ok a her is what i would like you all to do for me


1 keep a eye how the storm for me

2 let hurricanechaser no that he has mail and i will not be around to get back to him so i will get back to him has soon as i can

3 i will be back on sunday to post
Fine, but with the 2005 hurricane season shouldnt they at least acknowledge the weather people? If not Mayfield, then NHC in general.
well you all let hurricanechaser no that he has mail and i will not be around to get back to him so i will get back to him has soon as i can

Blizzards in the north and learning the greek alphabet thanks to the wild and crazy hurricane season of 2005.

Everyone have a happy and safe turkey day. Try not to get too stuffed, and watch out for the those XBox360 crazies (along with the others, which for purposes of being able to back up my gripe about Black Friday I will be joining the werdiness this year) on Black Friday.
397. OGal
Sarah From Fla., I too am a Sarah from Fla. I agree and just went to the website and put in Max Mayfield's name. I happened to watch him during Katrina. He is a no nonsense guy and comes across rather dry, but he does know his stuff and truly warned the Gulf Coast of impending doom.
Sarah Fetters
Orlando
No way Mayfield deserves that honor... sorry...I don't think they did that great of a job this year either.. Sarah, I don't know where you are, but they were telling South Floridians that Wilma was only going to be a Cat 1 or maybe even "only" a TS instead of the monster that she really was. Thank goodness for sites like this where the real truth is told.
Sorry Billsfan but if you read the NHC discussions a day before landfall you would of read this..:

ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT BE
OVERESTIMATING THE IMPACTS OF SHEAR IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THE SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE HOURS PRIOR TO
LANDFALL AND AS WILMA CROSSES FLORIDA... SO WEAKENING IS INDICATED
IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL. WHILE THE BEST ESTIMATE
OF LANDFALL INTENSITY IS CATEGORY TWO...IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT
WILMA COULD REACH FLORIDA AT CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY.


Straight from the NHC a day before landfall..I think you may have been listening to your local TV people and not the NHC..They have done an amazing job this year considering all the stress and variables they had to endure this season..
And this discussion was from Saturday, two days before landfall:

GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
WILMA TO 100 KT IN 24 HR AND THEN WEAKENING A LITTLE BEFORE
LANDFALL. WILMA SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN FLORIDA AS A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME CHANCE IT COULD HIT AS A
CATEGORY THREE. AFTER CROSSING FLORIDA...WILMA SHOULD QUICKLY
WEAKEN DUE TO SHEAR AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.


So all along they were forecasting Cat2 with a possibility of a Cat 3...Not sure where you got your info from..
03, I agree, in fact just suggested Mayfield on Sarah's link page. He and NHC probably saved more lives than anyone else during this historical hurricane year.
weatherguy,

while i can see that you are correct in what the advisories said, sunday morning's 5am discussion said this:

BUT IT IS
ASSUMED THAT WILMA'S INNER CORE WILL BE ABLE TO AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY REDEVELOP...AND THAT SOME RESTRENGTHENING WILL OCCUR
TODAY. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE
IN VERTICAL SHEAR WILL OCCUR AS WILMA NEARS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA... WHICH...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER
LOWER-LEVEL AIR... WOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING.

and the 10am discussion said:

THE INTENSITY OF WILMA WHILE CROSSING FLORIDA REMAINS
QUITE UNCERTAIN... AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT IT WILL BE A
CATEGORY ONE OR TWO AT LANDFALL.

this sort of information led most people, including PBCo emergency management to conclude it would be less than a category one when it reached us... hence, our evacuation orders for mobile homes were 'voluntary' (mandatory evac is required with a cat 1)...

there is a striking difference between what the nhc said in discussions and what its advisories said...

reminds me of the obstetrician who, when asked what sex the baby would be, always said one thing and wrote the opposite in his notes... that way, he could always prove he was right...
I have to respectful disagree with ya mousey...If someones area has a Hurricane coming, I think its the responsibility of the local people..ie..TV, EOC, etc...To read all the info that is out there..I was involved in forecasting on TV for a few years and everyday the first thing I did was read the NWS local discussions and if it was the Tropical season those discussions, that way we could inform the viewers. The info was there as clear as day a few days in advance that it was going to be a Cat 2 and maybe a Cat 3, I am not sure how much better the NHC could have said it..
Also remember the margin of error at landfall is one category..So if they were forecasting a Cat 1 or Cat 2 and the evacs were only voluntary for mobile homes, then someone on the local level dropped the ball..Because it those evacs should have automatically been mandatory..I am not sure I ever heard the NHC calling for a TS at landfall..
405. OGal
I am not as knowledgeable as most of you guys but I do remember that the additional spining added to the mix of the storm from the approaching cold front was said to be of concern as far as the possiblity of strengthening the hurricane. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best has always been my hurricane moto. I think we all are suffering from Post tramatic shock syndrome.
weatherguy... my quotes were from the discussions on sunday, less than 24 hrs before the storm began impacting the florida coast... i'm not making it up, and you can check if you'd like...

so you can disagree with somebody, but not me... all i did was quote from statements the nhc made...

maybe they did say it would be a 2-3 on saturday, but on sunday, they said 1-2...

in my opinion as a person with very little knowledge of weather and how to interpret weather maps, etc., i feel that it is the responsibility of both the nhc and local people to stress the fact that in forecasting you are counting on particluar things occurring, but if they don't occur the results could be vastly different... and they were here...

the nhc does its best to forecast based on what the employees know and what seems to be the case, but it is still not as certain as 1 + 1 = 2...

for my part, i will never again assume that any of them has got it right... i will educate myself and learn to make my own guesses... if they predict something worse than what i expect, i will go with their forecast... if not, i will do as i should have done with wilma, and trust my gut instinct to flee...

just my two cents, devalued this week to .017 euros...
weatherguy, what they expected at landfall and what they expected on the other side of the state were not necessarily the same... but, yes, they dropped the ball and helped to put a lot of people in harm's way... most of the people in my park do not own computers and many do not even have a high school diploma... they have to trust the 'professionals'...
What I love is WILMA SHOULD QUICKLY
WEAKEN DUE TO SHEAR AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

HAHAHA Wilma showed them STAYING a Cat. 3 for quite some time with Wind Shear that would tear apart ANY Storm!!!
All I was commenting early was on the fact that some people like to blame the NHC and Max..The NHC warned the people of S.Fla..You guys were under Hurricane Warnings with the possiblility of a Cat 1 or Cat 2 at landfall..They did there job..All I know is what the NHC did, since I dont live in S.Fla I am not sure of your EOC and local TV...

And again I stated facts from the NHC also, so i dont know why you are being so defensive..Also again if they said only a Cat 1 and I was in a mobile home I would leave..So whether it was a Cat 1, 2, or 3 if you are in a mobile home you are suppose to leave..
The average working Joe or Josephine doesn't have the time, energy, or resources to learn everything they can about every storm. They rely on media warnings and civil authorities to make the right choices. A person who wants to evacuate can lose her job if the authorities don't order the evacuation. It puts the working middle class in a bad place if the forecasts are incorrect. The poor are in vulnerable for many, many reasons, including lack of transportation to evacuate regardless of the forecasts.
Good Thanksgiving Eve everyone,

Mouseybabe, ...and lastly from the same discussion you cited:

IT IS IMPORTANT TO STRESS THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE WILMA HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD AND SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

FORECASTER PASCH

After seeing what a large wind field hurricane (Katrina) could do, regardless of category or exact track, forecasters were desperately trying to get the message across...BE PREPARED! If Emergency Management officials concluded otherwise, they are to blame, not the NHC.
weatherguy,

i'm not being defensive... i am stating the facts just like you are... and yes, if it's going to be a cat 1, we are supposed to leave... but they were saying a cat 1 when it hit the west coast, and those of us on the east coast having ts force winds, which is why no mandatory evac was issued... by 'they' i mean not just the locals but the weather channel and nationals as well... i don't see where the nhc said that even once, so that's not their fault...

only max mayfield came out and said they basically didn't know what would happen, and i admire him for his honesty as well as his skills as a meteorologist and his calm demeanor... he doesn't get excited like some at the prospect of getting to see a bad storm first-hand and standing out in a storm to show the viewers at home what the winds are like... and i was glad jeb bush told them to stop being so irresponsible...

sorry for the rant about the weathermen, but believe me, we know what the winds are like when they are pulling off roofs and carports and smashing them into our rocking trailer...

my main point is that it needs to be stressed at all times, as the nhc sometimes does, that if all the dominoes don't line up right, they're not gonna fall where we expect them to...

mouse
weatherguy...I see what you're saying, however, and yes, I was watching local news but they just parrot whatever NHC says.. and they were saying it might be only a 1 (plus or minus 1) when it was over the East coast of Florida. Mind you, I did not believe it, and we were in the prepare for the worst, hope for the best mode. I did not think they had a good handle on Katrina when it hit South Florida either, that was badly botched on out coast. I understand their need to be held accountable to millions of people, but sometimes it seems to me that they can be overly conservative. That said, I fully understand that forecasting is not an exact science and espically in 2005 these hurricanes certainly have seemed to have minds of their own! Peace :)
doc, that message says don't concentrate on the track, nothing about the intensity...

but looking over the nhc archives as a whole, i think once wilma left the yucatan, they became gradually aware that it might be a major hurricane...

the problem is, and this is something nobody can help... we're on a penisula... if we all had to evacuate, it would be total gridlock... so we need more than a day or two warning... if it's so close when it turns, we can't always get that warning...

but please keep in mind that many of us here and millions of us in the coastal states must rely on what the professionals tell us because we can't read weather maps or interpret data... and that's why we come to WU to get more opinions from people who know more than we do...

mouse
Hey billsfan, yes the people should of been prepared for Cat 1 winds plus or minus 1 Cat on the East Coast..Again mousey I am not sure where anyone said TS force winds for the East Coast, and again the NHC stated Cat 2 or Cat 3 at landfall..But whatever, I am done ranting..LOL..Basically I think alot of people were taking this storm lightly and shouldnt have..Have a good Holiday all!!!...Take care!!!
416. dcw
*knocks at NHC headquarters*

Anyone home? We have Hurricane Delta, and you aren't issuing...



weatherguy,

you have a good holdiay as well... i won't discuss this anymore with you, because you only want to see what you posted and not what i posted directly from the nhc on the day before the storm... the ts force winds were being reported locally, and as i said not the nhc's prediction...

so we can drop that and still be amianble, right ? :) i rely on all of you here with an understanding of the weather to help me make informed choices...
418. OGal
DCW, ok, where do think she will go??? You are truly an amazing guy. What are the chances she will head far enough south to be of concern to Florida????
hi dcw... they won't call it a hurricane until it moves far enough south, right? i know there was some debate about extra-tropical and sub-tropical storm classifications, but i've been busy baking pies...
Oh we are amicable..LOL..I am not like that on here, you can ask around..LOL...Unfortunately i get alittle defensive when people talk negative about meterologists..LOL..Especially the NHC, who in my opinion, do a great job...In the future try and read the NHC discussions on here or on the NOAA website, they give ya more info then your local people...
weatherguy.. i DO read them, that's why i saw what i saw... and then later when it changed (again) it was too late to get out of dodge... LOL

as for meteorologists, they are in a situation of trying to predict the future, which is changeable... so it's tough, but we would be in serious trouble if they didn't gather data and try to explain its implications to us... why defensive? are you one of them? ::evilgrin::
Yes I am..LOL..

But on Saturday they were saying it could be a Cat 2 or Cat 3 at landfall...Enough time to leave for a shelter or get supplies, and maybe leave...We had someone on Hills blog leave from Naples and go to Orlando on Saturday when she heard that..
weatherguy, you're right... i had said way early on (a week beforehand, i think) that i was leaving... someone here said wait and see, and i did... my fault and nobody else's...
Yup...seems like many people were kind of apathetic about Wilma...South Florida really got hammered...glad this season seems to be finally over...

Have a Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!!!
mouseybabe, I understand ya...if ya haven't noticed before, I'm located in the most vulnerable place on the Gulf coast, SE LA. Three weeks after Katrina wrecked everything I grew up knowing - my birthplace, Port Sulphur LA, was annihilated and hardly exists but on maps - we (in Houma area) had no where to evacuate to as Rita slashed thru...so I feel your pain.

Again, one of the lessons we should have learned is this...going back over the last few years...Cat 4, Cat 5 hurricanes retain immense strength even after weakening to a lower category, esp. it's surge potential... and those with a large, wide eye possessing a wide wind field. So if one of these is headed your way..DON'T ASSUME A CAT ONE WILL BE A WEAK STORM!

This discussion is another example why either the Safir-Simpson scale needs to be redone...or we need to better understand the differences in storms of the same category.

Peace all...
same to you steve... :)

i am normally cautious and would not stay even for a lesser storm... and i am always prepared with two weeks food and water, which i take with me wherever i evacuate to... i think i just had meltdown at that point from the weird season... LOL...

but, although we were very frightened, we were unharmed... and for that we are truly thankful... and now my car windshield has been replaced and my mobile will be releveled and tied down this afternoon and then repairs begun, so my life is returning to normal, unlike many unfortunate people who are having to cope with roof leaks, mildew, etc...
Listen its really hard to leave a week before..I personally would have waited things out..Also I thought at the most it would be a Cat1/2 at landfall, so it took me alittle off guard as well...My only concern is when it comes to mobile homes, people should at least move to a shelter at Cat 1 status..I live here in N.Fla and when we had the hurricanes last year I had my parents who live in a mobile home come to my house because of the possiblility of Cat 1 winds..
doc,

thanks for that info on storms... i learn something new here all the time, and i will definitely keep the things you've said in mind...

sorry to hear about your experiences... i consider myself very fortunate indeed...

mousey
weatherguy, normally i leave even if not required... i stay with my brother... i can't even explain why i ended up staying, and everyone has ticked me off about it .. lol... but i have decided to accept it as a life lesson and take from it what i can to help myself and others in the future...
430. dcw
I'd say 29AC (I refer to storms by number rather than name if the NHC hasn't upgraded) will continue SSW or S and continue to strengthen today. Deeper and deeper convection surrounds the center each sat frame, so I think our subtropical system is going full tropical.
431. dcw
I'll probably issue an advisory shortly at my site.

Just need to take a look at the GOES.
I think alot of us got tired of leaving..LOL..Tired of all the hurricanes..I probably would of stayed too!!!...And again if everyone left S.Fla what misery that would have been on the roads, you need a week to leave...Well glad you are safe, and have a great Thanksgiving..I am ready to end this day at work and enjoy the holiday!!!...Oh and it finally reached 50 here today..LOL...
enjoy yourself wg... i'm signing off as well to get some work done...

happy thanksgiving to those i won't talk to this evening... and those i will, as well... LOL
434. dcw
1:00 Advisory from moi:

Subtropical Storm 29AC
Amateur Hurricane Center
Advisory 4 - 1:00PM EST November 23, 2005

Satellite imagery indicates that 29AC is beginning to transition to fully tropical. Convection near the center continues to increase, and analysis of the structure shows (albeit barely) a deep, warm-core system. 29AC will remain subtropical for this advisory...but will likely be fully tropical by tonight. The initial intensity remains 60kt(70mph) based on scatterometer data and the current lack of upper-level outflow.

The track forecast remains the same as before, but is again faster. 29AC continues to accelerate southward along the back side of a warm front, and now appears likely to make it to the deep tropics. Again...my skill with forecasting subtropical systems is limited, and steering currents will be rather complex past 72 hours, due to the afforementioned front colliding with a strong approaching cold front from the U.S. east coast. Therefore, I will again only issue forecasts for the first 72 hours, as before. To be frank, I have absolutely no idea what this storm will do past 72 hours.

The intensity forecast remains approximately the same as the previous one, only with an earlier transition to tropical as evidenced this morning. 29AC is likely to reach hurricane strength today, and it is possible that it already has. The forecast calls for 80kt(90mph) at 72 hours, with further strengthening possible. The outside possibility of a major hurricane is still there, but it appears that the storm will never be stronger than about 90kt(105mph).

Initial: 27.5N 41.0W 60kt(70mph)...subtropical
12 Hour: 24.5N 41.0W 65kt(75mph)...subtropical
24 Hour: 21.5N 41.5W 70kt(80mph)
48 Hour: 19.0N 42.0W 75kt(85mph)
72 Hour: 17.5N 43.5W 80kt(90mph)
mouseybabe,
hmmm, one of those pies you're baking would go great with my seafood Thanksgiving meal. LOL...yeah, I hardly eat turkey on the big day...fresh shrimp, oysters and freshwater sac-a-lait (called speckled perch in FL) I caught yesterday will be on the table!

On the other note..I've been in Houma since I was 2 years old...and I didn't evacuate for Katrina or ever have. We fared better than those to our east. I'll probably re-evaluate my thinking on evacuation next season...I'm still at 10' elev and 30 miles from the Gulf...no, 25..no, 20.. heck at this rate...the Gulf's lapping at the door, but on the bright side I'll own waterfront property soon! I might have to migrate north...
Next season already worries the hell out of us here.
Doc- That sounds so good.. I would much rather have seafood!!!
How is everyone today?
Doc... your menu sounds great, better than turkey!

Is anyone else having trouble reading posts?
I have to scroll over to read the right side.

Billsfan - I'm not having any trouble..
good 21...nice quiet day at work... getting ready to leave.. and you?
must be something with this computer
Bills, I think it is because of that large graphic posting. But do make sure you are on "showing 50 comments." Once we get up to 50 w/out a large graphic the scrolling problem will cease (I think).
Here at work too... Wish I was about to leave, lol!
The NHC is droping the ball on a at least a tropical storm or even at one time a hurricane at about 28 North and 40 West.
But do check out that graffic as it is interesting.
I leave around 4:30 central... I wish I could leave early.. I have to bake like a madwoman tonight...

Anyway, I gotta go get some lunch..

HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE! :-)
It is not a hurricane yet,it is not gererating deep tropical convection and it still is somewhat none tropical,but it is continuing to push towards warmer waters,and convection is slowly becoming deeper heavier and stronger more like a tropical system.But because it continues to push south it should become tropical.
I
I agree Jed. Wonder what we'll hear at the 2pm EST outlook
450. dcw

451. dcw
There is no 2pm, and the 1pm is out.
It is NOT a hurricane yet and is NOT a true tropical system yet,it still has dryer weaker convection as of cold core systems do,but as it moves over warmer waters it should begin to suck up warmer water and more and more water vapor which will cause it to transition into a tropical system,the immense energy from warmer water,combined with lots of water vapor should allow intense moist tropical convection to develop around the center and begin to strengthen it.
453. dcw
Us ----> <---- NHC
Thanks, DCW. I see the NHC "discussion" now. ARe there two systems out there? what is your take/prediction?
Hello Pensacola21,...Yeah, billsfan...all you guys come on over, tell mousey to bring those pies. LOL...I got a laugh the other nite when LobCarl invited everyone up for lobster...Bet he didn't expect the response he got!

Problem I'm having is loooonnnnngggg reload time on d-up. Time for Shaun to place a new entry.

DCW, ...good post, agreed...that's probably been at least STD 28 for over 24 hrs.
456. dcw
Only one system, and see my advisory above or at http://theahc.webhop.net
457. dcw
It's not a TD, winds are upwards of 50kt.
hello all...

Hurigo- thank you....is there a setting or something to view 50 comments only?

DCW... LOL on your graphic

Doc... you've had me thinking about seafood all afternoon, I may have to run by and picking some fish or shrimp for dinner tonight.
* pick up
Bills: Scroll down to the end of the postings. See in bold print before the Post your comment section: "Viewing COmments x - x(number): Make sure "showing 50 comments in highlighted in blue and click.
sorry, been away having my home releveled.. i feel really in balance with the cosmic harmonies... lol

doc, your menu sounds great, one of the guys who worked on my home asked me if i sell them... i'd have given him one, but he wouldn't take it...

pecan, pumpkin and apple this time... i like xmas best, because then it's all the old hungarian pastry recipes passed down for generations... mmmmm...

maybe if you go north, you'll head for lobcarl's island and eat lobster for t-giving... any place other than here sounds good, but i am stuck for the present... so i will enjoy what fl has to offer in the winter :)

mousey
billsfan.... make sure you set it at the top of the blog for newest first, or you'll have to go through the pages each time...
dude... dude! happy t-giving!!
Hay~ ALL~ i moved enough of it today. I'm pretty disappointed this hasn't been named yet. Happy they finally put the gfdl on it. Notice it is inisulized at 986mb & 59.6kts. Guess they're hoping it will do what that model says, so they don't have to name the subtropical fish storm ~ about to be hit by troff, shreaded & pulled north, does show strengthing too far n to be named. ~ The cmc shows some weakining & then meandering to the ne. ~the gfs has it well weakened by 60 hrs, doing a dance around another storm at 90hrs while strengthing to fushia color, much further n around 144hrs. The nogaps has the short term forcasted weakening, with restregnthing to the w, moving w toward the seUS, but a front is coming off the seUS to hit it again. Ukmet has it weakened in 60 hrs, then tore into 2 storms, like an upside down smilely face, stretched across the atlanic. I'll say it will be well weakened to TD strenth or less in 60 hrs, after that, don't know.

A storm is moving in from Canada, heads up great lakes, neUS gets hit again in less than 48hrs. In 4 days there is a good chance for strong storm to move through the mid-west.
can someone please explain to me what the floaters are on the nhc site?
The 2 floaters are satalite loops, except they aren't for a paticular area. NOOA moves them around to invest areas, storms, hurricanes & areas to watch. Usually a tight shot of something interesting.

You can choose the latest still picture or loop for each storm as well as watervapor, infra-red, etc.

You can find them here. as well as other satalites for certain areas & useful links.
thanks, skye... but i'm still confused ... how do they move them?
i like the floaters because you can add fronts and whatnot... but the wind markers always confuse me.. they look like flags on a golf course, but the wind is blowing the opposite to that image... from 'flag' to base...
Hello everyone..Just wanted to stop in and wish each of you a safe and very "Happy Thanksgiving".

If any of you get bored..LOL..I updated my blog around 1:45 pm today. I didn't spend much time discussing its future track because its only a matter of when and not if it gets picked up and carried to the NE by a trough in my humble opinion.

It certainly appears it will skip the Depression stage and become either Subtropical or Tropical storm Delta (I lean toward purely Tropical) with increased convection wrapping around its circulation center and Dvorak intensity estimates earlier today of 40 mph. I have described the Dvorak intensity scale very briefly on my blog as well.

Once again, I hope you all have a wonderful, "Thanksgiving".:)
same to you chaser :)
473. OGal
I too, would like to wish eveyone a Happy Turkey Day. Save up for the strength you will need on Friday to be out on the roads. We always get out tree on Friday after Thanksgiving so we will get out early. If anyone has a NO FAIL gravey recipe would you please post it. Thanks a bunch!!
Happy Thanksgiving Skye, Tony, Mousey, weatherdude, david and everyone (sorry, wish I had time to type everyone's names, but then... you all know your names) !!!
475. dcw
Winds are generally given in the direction they come from.
the "flags" are arrows mousey and indicate how strong it blows
gobble, gobble people~ the little one's up, sorry don't have more time mousey. Maybe later..

478. dcw
Everyone should head over to mousey's blog with any questions, great folks there: Link
we've got delta!!!!!!!!!
000
WTNT43 KNHC 232019
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED NOV 23 2005

THE 2005 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON REFUSES TO END AS MODERATE
TO DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS AND HAS
WRAPPED ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE WAY AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER
OF THE LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1000
NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS
OCCASIONALLY APPEARED IN VARIOUS SATELLITE IMAGERY AS THE
INTENSIFYING CIRCULATION HAS WRAPPED IN DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS BASED ON A 0852Z QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS SHOWING A FEW 50-KT UNCONTAMINATED WIND VECTORS TO THE
NORTH... AND A 986.5 MB PRESSURE REPORT FROM BUOY 62556 LOCATED
ABOUT 50 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER AT 23/16Z. THAT BUOY PRESSURE ALSO
MAINTAINS CONTINUITY WITH THE 23/02Z PRESSURE OF 984.4 MB FROM BUOY
13534 WHEN IT WAS LOCATED ABOUT 40 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER. THE
50-KT INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A
TROPICAL SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 165/08 KT. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
MODELS ARE IN UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON DELTA BOTTOMING OUT IN
LATITUDE BY ABOUT 24 HOURS...BEFORE TURNING BACK TO THE NORTH. THE
MAN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS WHETHER DELTA TURNS EAST OR
WEST OF 40W LONGITUDE BEFORE IT TURNS BACK TO THE NORTH. I HAVE
OPTED TO TURN THE TRACK COUNTERCLOCKWISE TO THE EAST AND THEN
NORTH... GIVEN THAT DELTA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER AND
VERTICALLY DEEP CYCLONIC GYRE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR IN
SPEED TO... BUT IS RIGHT OF... THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE 850-200 MB VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS DELTA IS FORECAST TO DECREASE
FROM THE CURRENT 50 KT DOWN TO 22 KT IN 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THAT DELTA IS SHALLOWER THAN CLASSICAL TROPICAL CYCLONES... LESS
SHEAR IS SUGGESTED BY UW-CIMSS WATER VAPOR WINDS OF 20-30 KT AT 300
MB...WHICH IS ABOUT 10-20 KT LESS THAN AT 200 MB. ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW HAS ALSO BECOME ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS...SO SOME
ADDITIONAL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AS DELTA MOVES
SOUTHWARD OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER SSTS OF 25.5C FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

DELTA... DELTA...
Who says there is such a thing as Global Warming?
Happy Thanksgiving to all - except to Delta!
Too bad delta is too far out to sea to make the floridians nervous...lol.
cpeterka- You could easily label all of this weather mess to global warming. However, with the new technologies that we have to measure weather, you have to wonder whether it is us warming the earth or it is mother nature warming the earth and we are just now able to measure the warming. "Global Warming" could have been 'happening' 200 years ago, however we of course wouldnt have been able to measure a temperature rise of 1 or 2 degrees....
Happy Thanksgiving trouper!
Thanks a bundle subtropic. Happy thanksgiving to you and all who have helped on the wunder hurricane blogs this season. There should be lots of thanksing done this year especially.
487. dcw
That the planet is warming is really not something that is under dispute. The question is whether or not (or how much) we have an effect on it.
i think i've said this before to other people here, so forgive if you've heard it... but whenever someone tells me weather goes in cycles, i tell them i think it goes in spirals... yes, it goes round in circles, but we've jacked it up a level with global warming, 90% of which i blame directly on dcw ;)
I have added 8 more tornadoes to my blog on last Tuesday's tornado outbreak.
torn... is this normal for this time of year or is it out of the ordinary?
Dr Masters has a new blog