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Paula's eyewall disintigrates as the storm weakens

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:14 PM GMT on October 14, 2010

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that Hurricane Paula continues to weaken, and the storm may no longer be a hurricane. The latest 8:06am EDT center report found the pressure had risen to 1002 mb, and the aircraft saw top winds at their flight level of 10,000 feet of just 60 mph between 6am and 9am EDT. The Hurricane Hunters did not report the existence of an eyewall, and Cuban radar (Figure 1) indicates that the southern portion of the eyewall has collapsed, leaving Paula with just 1/3 of an eyewall. Paula is moving at 5 mph along the northern coast of Cuba, and is bringing heavy rains to the western portion of the island. Cabo San Antonio on the western tip of Cuba has picked up 4.85" of rain so far from Paula, and a wind gust of 60 mph was reported on the western tip of the island. Heavy rains have also hit the Florida Keys this morning, with Key West picking up 0.62" inches of rain in just 30 minutes from a heavy rain squall that ended at 7:30am EDT. Weather radar out of Key West (Figure 2) noted several regions offshore where Paula has dumped 5+ inches of rain. High wind shear due to strong upper-level winds of 30 knots out of the south are tearing Paula apart, and satellite imagery shows the storm has a lopsided appearance due to the shear, and the low-level center is almost exposed to view. Low level spiral banding is no longer as impressive, and the intensity of Paula's thunderstorms has waned significantly over the past few hours.


Figure 1. Radar image from the Pinar del Rio radar in Cuba at 8:30am EDT on October 14, 2010, showing the eye of Paula along the northwest coast of Cuba. Image credit: Cuban Institute of Meteorology.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation for Paula from the Key West radar.

Forecast for Paula
The models have come into better agreement on the future track of Paula, with the storm expected to move along the north coast of Cuba or just inland during the next three days. On this track, Paula will move over Cuba's capital, Havana, tonight and Friday morning, and bring heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches to the most populous region of the country. An extended period of time over mountainous Cuba will likely destroy a small storm like Paula within 48 hours, particularly since the storm will be under 30+ knots of wind shear. A path just off the coast will let Paula live a little longer, but not much longer. The models are pretty unanimous in showing that wind shear will pull Paula apart over the next two days regardless of whether or not the center stays over water. Tropical storm force winds extend out just 50 miles from Paula's center, so it is unlikely that the Florida Keys will experience sustained winds of 39+ mph. The 5am EDT wind probability product from NHC gives Key West a 40% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds; these odds are 83% for Havana. Havana may receive some minor wind damage from Paula, but it currently appears that heavy rain will be the major threat from Paula. The hurricane could easily dump more than ten inches over mountainous regions of Cuba, creating flooding hazards.


Figure 3. True color satellite image of Paula taken by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite at 2:35pm EDT October 13, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS and GFS models are predicting the formation of a tropical depression 5 - 6 days from now, in the southern Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua. The storm is predicted to move west-northwest over Nicaragua and Honduras (the NOGAPS model forecast) or northwards towards the Cayman Islands and Jamaica (the GFS model forecast.) The GFS model has been pretty reliable in forecasting the genesis of new tropical depressions this year, and the fact that we have two major models predicting the formation of a new Caribbean tropical depression next week is worth paying attention to.

In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Megi is nearing typhoon strength, and is predicted to intensify into a major typhoon that will strike the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Sunday night or Monday morning.

Next update
I'll have an update this afternoon.

Jeff Masters
Hurricane Paula
Hurricane Paula

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for update
Thanks Dr.Masters
Thunderstorm Paula, POOF
ty for the update...reading now
Paula may need some clothes soon....

Thanks
Despite some nice convection near her CoC, Paula is being badly sheared from the southwest, and could conceivably become exposed later today if it doesn't relent...and there are no signs of that happening. She's caught between the Scylla and Charibdes: move north and be ripped to tatters by shear, or stay on her current track and starve to death over Cuba.

Not looking good for our girl:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image
From the old Blog.
Just sayin', as close as this is and still heading our way, I would think that they would err on the side of caution. more liveaboard boaters out on the hook than at docks down here.
Thanks for the update
Megi will threaten my country right maybe sunday
or monday
Check out MIMIC/TPW...

Paula is Cuba bound.

Look out for a very dangerous fire season in South Florida in 2011.
Complete Update

At the speed Paula is crashing now, I doubt she will even be a TS in 8 hours.



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Thanks for the update... always great information.
So Florida aint gettin a storm again this year.
just curious.....what is causing this huge shield around america? i have seen high pressure areas come and go, same with low pressure areas, yet it's always the same story, everything spins off...
Stick a fork in it, season is over
Quoting RitaEvac:
Yesterday people were saying it was strenghting to cat 3, you could see the thing leaning over from shear yesterday and was falling apart the whole damn time

Yep. Exactly.
From the last blog:

Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:
is all of the sheared moisture bringing energy to s.fla? does it have punch to it enough to form tornadoes, microbursts, etc?




If we get enough heating this afternoon we could see a few strong storms over South Florida as the moisture from Paula interacts with the approaching front. Upper Level profile not conducive for tornadoes.
Thx Doc...

Plenty of rain KEYW for sure.
Quoting IKE:
Paula may need some clothes soon....


Don't recall any nude beaches near the keys...
Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Update

At the speed Paula is crashing now, I doubt she will even be a TS in 8 hours.



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI

Minimal TS by 4pm at best
Quoting calusakat:
Check out MIMIC/TPW...

Paula is Cuba bound.

Look out for a very dangerous fire season in South Florida in 2011.


Are you Sarcastic or Being Serious?
Gulf is cooling off as each front comes down, future fronts will progressively get colder and that's all she wrote, wait'll next year in 2011 for action.


The ridge line that runs right near where Paula is, is the line she has been following this entire time. If that cold front wasn't there she'd definitely hit FL. But it's not here yet, so I think she'll get pretty close.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Despite some nice convection near her CoC, Paul is being badly sheared from the southwest, and could conceivable become exposed later today if it doesn't relent...and there are no signs of that happening. She's caught between Scylla and Charibdes: move north and be ripped to tatters by shear, or stay on her current track and starve to death over Cuba.

Not looking good for our girl:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image

Dont you mean paula?
EDIT: he corrected it before i posted this, sorry
Quoting Vincent4989:

Dont you mean paula?


Yes. That's why I changed it within ten seconds of posting it. Besides, there is no "Paul" this year in the Atlantic, so there's a really good chance that most people who saw my comment during that ten seconds understood that was a typo, and that I was probably talking about Paula, especially since her image accompanied the post.

I get better after the caffeine is fully distributed around my nervous system, I promise. ;-)
Quoting alvarig1263:


The ridge line that runs right near where Paula is, is the line she has been following this entire time. If that cold front wasn't there she'd definitely hit FL. But it's not here yet, so I think she'll get pretty close.
Quoting alvarig1263:


The ridge line that runs right near where Paula is, is the line she has been following this entire time. If that cold front wasn't there she'd definitely hit FL. But it's not here yet, so I think she'll get pretty close.


30-40 Miles South....
Quoting Neapolitan:


Yes. That's why I changed it within ten seconds of posting it. Besides, there is no "Paul" this year in the Atlantic, so there's a really good chance that most people who saw my comment during that ten seconds understood that was a typo, and that I was probably talking about Paula, especially since her image accompanied the post.

I get better after the caffeine is fully distributed around my nervous system, I promise. ;-)

LOL
Quote Dr M Heavy rains have also hit the Florida Keys this morning, with Key West picking up 0.62" inches of rain in just 30 minutes from a heavy rain squall
I,ll Say it was heavy. Was a blinding down pour driving into work this am
Quoting sammywammybamy:


30-40 Miles South....


Probably
Quoting RitaEvac:
So Florida aint gettin a storm again this year.

That the 5th year in a row now? Referring to a direct landfall, btw.
Thanks Dr. Masters for the update
Mid Level Shear (12:00Z)

Click to Enlarge
BTW Continuing to follow its most recent heading (derived in blog1656comment733)

would take HurricanePaula over plenty of heat

toward a deeper reserve of heat

and toward more readily accessible heat


Convection continues to blow up.
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Are you Sarcastic or Being Serious?
The way things are now as far as rainfall deficits in Florida, and the La_Nina out there, I would say they are serious.
Paula is a mute topic now. Next...
Quoting aspectre:
BTW The most recent heading

takes HurricanePaula over plenty of heat

toward a deeper reserve of heat

and toward more readily accessible heat
former Hurricane Paula...
For what it's worth, Paula's ACE surpassed Karl's this morning, albeit just barely; Karl ended with 5.8 ACE units, while Paula currently has 5.82. That's enough to put her into the season's sixth spot behind Igor, Earl, Danielle, Julia, and Alex. Alex ended with 6.7825, so it's possible Paula could reach that, but based on current presentation and trends, I'm doubting it.
PAULA a Cat 1 @ 999 millibars
and ALEX was a Cat 2 with a 12 mile wide eye feature @ 947 millibars. It's difficult for me to reconcile that.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Stick a fork in it, season is over


Get that fork from NRAamy quick and do it... So we can focus on fall/winter...
Looks to me like the mess once called "Paula" is heading to south Florida as not much more than a large thunder storm...
On Long Range Key West Radar I see a rotation to the south west just coming into view. Is that what's left of the Circulation?
Morning All.


Quoting PensacolaDoug:
PAULA a Cat 1 @ 999 millibars
and ALEX was a Cat 2 with a 12 mile wide @ 947 millibars. It's difficult for me to reconcile that.

The comparable size of these storms might help to explain it, be not fully. I really think Alex might have had a little more punch.
the mlc has deoupled from the llc,the mlc is apparent on long range kw radar and appears to be headed towards NE at a pretty decent rate(leaving the llc behind)riding on the sw flow around 20mph...
Quoting dmh1026:
Looks to me like the mess once called "Paula" is heading to south Florida as not much more than a large thunder storm...

Clap of thunder, maybe a sprinkle or two.
Quoting stillwaiting:
the mlc has deoupled from the llc,the mlc is apparent on long range kw radar and appears to be headed towards NE at a pretty decent rate(leaving the llc behind)riding on the sw flow around 20mph...


I'm guessing this is what shear will do to a tropical system?
A. Time of Center Fix: 14th day of the month at 12:53:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°43'N 84°19'W (22.7167N 84.3167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 45 miles (72 km) to the WNW (297°) from Pinar del Río, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,088m (10,131ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 48kts (~ 55.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 2 nautical miles (2 statute miles) to the WNW (295°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 338° at 29kts (From the NNW at ~ 33.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 3 nautical miles (3 statute miles) to the WNW (298°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,086m (10,125ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,997m (9,833ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 72kts (~ 82.9mph) in the southeast quadrant at 8:50:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 50kts (~ 57.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 12:59:30Z




HH inbound again
Quoting Keys99:
On Long Range Key West Radar I see a rotation to the south west just coming into view. Is that what's left of the Circulation?
I'm not sure, but there have been some really interesting storm cells embedded in the larger rain field approaching; nearly stationary, possibly rotating themselves. looks like the gulf stream is on 'fire' too. interested to see how that energy feeds into Paula.
Northeast Storm: The Timeline Another sure sign of the trend toward winter is on tap for the Northeast, as a powerful storm will rev up in the next few days.

You may say, "Ugh, I wanted to check out the fall foliage this weekend." Indeed, fall colors are at their peak over much of Upstate New York and northern New England now
Quoting oracle28:


So to quote a fellow poster...
South Florida needs to make preparations NOW!!


I got my umbrella right next to me and I'm ready for the thunderstorm
Quoting oracle28:


So to quote a fellow poster...
South Florida needs to make preparations NOW!!

LMAO
Look at the Short Loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis-s.html

I think you can see the separation Looks like a stairway almost on the south west side
Paula made a nice wobble to the SE.
""
Quoting oracle28:


So to quote a fellow poster...
South Florida needs to make preparations NOW!!
LOL..I remember that one yesterday...We could use the rain from the remains of Paula...Hope some of that rain comes to SWFL...
FL winds have really dropped off. Paula is a TS.
Paula should continue to meander under the weak steering she's on... more so if the convection continues to get stripped out of her by the SW shear:

Poor, poor Paula. She never stood a chance....

tsk tsk tsk...
Poll: How close will Paula come towards FL

A. Make Landfall on the Keys or Mainland FL
B. Come within 50 miles of FL
C. Come within 100 miles of FL
D. Stay as far as it is now

Tip: COC of Paula is about 150 miles from Key West
Quoting robert88:
FL winds have really dropped off. Paula is a TS.

...And going to feel the effects of the broad mid/upper level trough even more now. She's on her way to Cuba to die.
Now we wait for Dick.
I would say Paula is a 55-60mph TS and that might be generous.
Quoting alvarig1263:
Poll: How close will Paula come towards FL

A. Make Landfall on the Keys or Mainland FL
B. Come within 50 miles of FL
C. Come within 100 miles of FL
D. Stay as far as it is now

Tip: COC of Paula is about 150 miles from Key West

D.

I'll give her MAYBE 20 miles more. But that rounds off to answer 'D'.
nah,nah,nah,nah...nah,nah,nah,nah..hey,hey,hey...goodbye!!!(paula)
Long loop, 2 days, radar: Link
Quoting robert88:
I would say Paula is a 55-60mph TS and that might be generous.

I agree - assessing her 60mph might be giving her a little too much credit.
Quoting alvarig1263:
Poll: How close will Paula come towards FL

A. Make Landfall on the Keys or Mainland FL
B. Come within 50 miles of FL
C. Come within 100 miles of FL
D. Stay as far as it is now

Tip: COC of Paula is about 150 miles from Key West


D. Is my answer
...Elevated fire danger conditions continue...

The fire danger will remain elevated for the next several days.
North winds of 10 to 15 mph today will diminish to 5 to 10 mph on
Friday and Saturday. Minimum afternoon relative humidity values
will range from 25 to 30 percent north of Interstate 10 today to
30 to 40 percent south of Interstate 10. Even drier air will move
into the area for Friday with relative humidities falling to 20 to
25 percent across the entire area. A few locations may have
relative humidities in the teens in the mid afternoon hours on
Friday. Values on Saturday will generally be in the 25 to 30
percent range.

No precipitation is forecast for southeast Louisiana and southern
Mississippi through the end of next week.

The Louisiana department of agriculture and forestry /ldaf/ has
issued a state-wide outdoor burn ban which will be in effect
until further notice. For more information...please refer to the
ldaf website at www.Ldaf.State.La.US

The Mississippi forestry commission has also issued a state-wide
outdoor burn ban which will be in effect until further notice.
For the entire state of Mississippi. For more information...please
refer to the their website at www.Mfc.MS.Gov

Quoting Keys99:
Look at the Short Loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis-s.html

I think you can see the separation Looks like a stairway almost on the south west side


looks like LLC heading SE and MLC heading NE
Quoting atmoaggie:
Long loop, 2 days, radar: Link

Makes her look even more pathetic now.

Thnx for link
has anyone figured out what the models do with the high pressure now set up across the s.e. us over the next 15 days? is it going to stay therefore blocking anymore development down the road or is the trend changing?
Morning Everyone......Looks like Paula is going Poof.....and models are hinting very loud for a new tropical system to form in the SW Caribbean.
65MPH TS PAULA at 11AM ADV. - IMO
Quoting TampaSpin:
Morning Everyone......Looks like Paula is going Poof.....and models are hinting very loud for a new tropical system to form in the SW Caribbean.

Good morning.

That's the one to start watching.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Now we wait for Dick.


Gotta say Doug that really don't sound right.....ROFLMAO
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Good morning.

That's the one to start watching.


What website do you guys use to look at the long range models? Thanks
From the center fixes Anyone think they are going to change her 11 am direction to ENE instead of NE?
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Good morning.

That's the one to start watching.


Looks like a problem for Jamiaca and Cuba, but i doubt the ConUS will ever see this thingy if it ever comes together.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 14th day of the month at 14:23Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2010
Storm Name: Paula (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 31
A. Time of Center Fix: 14th day of the month at 14:07:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 2254'N 8411'W (22.9N 84.1833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 46 miles (73 km) to the NW (316) from Pinar del Ro, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,108m (10,197ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 59kts (~ 67.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 2 nautical miles (2 statute miles) to the NNW (340) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 72 at 39kts (From the ENE at ~ 44.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 3 nautical miles (3 statute miles) to the NNW (333) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11C (52F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14C (57F) at a pressure alt. of 3,037m (9,964ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11C (52F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 72kts (~ 82.9mph) in the southeast quadrant at 8:50:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 46kts (~ 52.9mph) in the west quadrant at 14:11:30Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
PRELIMINARY, DO NOT RETRANSMIT
Quoting stillwaiting:
nah,nah,nah,nah...nah,nah,nah,nah..hey,hey,hey...goodbye!!!(paula)
`Thanks a LOT!!! LOL Now I am going to have that song in my head ALLLLLLLL day.
big time storm for the northeast tonight into friday morning winds over 60 mph..
its down to a tropical storm..wind shear will kill it in the next 48 hours.
Quoting atmoaggie:
...Elevated fire danger conditions continue...

The fire danger will remain elevated for the next several days.
North winds of 10 to 15 mph today will diminish to 5 to 10 mph on
Friday and Saturday. Minimum afternoon relative humidity values
will range from 25 to 30 percent north of Interstate 10 today to
30 to 40 percent south of Interstate 10. Even drier air will move
into the area for Friday with relative humidities falling to 20 to
25 percent across the entire area. A few locations may have
relative humidities in the teens in the mid afternoon hours on
Friday. Values on Saturday will generally be in the 25 to 30
percent range.

No precipitation is forecast for southeast Louisiana and southern
Mississippi through the end of next week.

The Louisiana department of agriculture and forestry /ldaf/ has
issued a state-wide outdoor burn ban which will be in effect
until further notice. For more information...please refer to the
ldaf website at www.Ldaf.State.La.US

The Mississippi forestry commission has also issued a state-wide
outdoor burn ban which will be in effect until further notice.
For the entire state of Mississippi. For more information...please
refer to the their website at www.Mfc.MS.Gov




1998 Florida. Over 2200 fires ravaged Florida

www.foresthistory.org/Education/.../Wildfire%20Timeline.pdf

Was not 1998 A very strong La Nina Year
A. Time of Center Fix: 14th day of the month at 14:07:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°54'N 84°11'W (22.9N 84.1833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 46 miles (73 km) to the NW (316°) from Pinar del Río, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,108m (10,197ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 59kts (~ 67.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 2 nautical miles (2 statute miles) to the NNW (340°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 72° at 39kts (From the ENE at ~ 44.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 3 nautical miles (3 statute miles) to the NNW (333°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,037m (9,964ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 72kts (~ 82.9mph) in the southeast quadrant at 8:50:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 46kts (~ 52.9mph) in the west quadrant at 14:11:30Z
Quoting hydrus:
The way things are now as far as rainfall deficits in Florida, and the La_Nina out there, I would say they are serious.

We're well above normal rainfall for the year and for the season in Dade and Broward, which is why all the talk about dry doesn't really resonate with many such as me, sammy and other South Floridians.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Gotta say Doug that really don't sound right.....ROFLMAO



Go figure!
Quoting alvarig1263:


What website do you guys use to look at the long range models? Thanks
My favorite
No ADV but NHC website says TROPICAL SOTRM PAULA on the banner.
Howdy all...
Quoting Vincent4989:
Thanks for the update
Megi will threaten my country right maybe sunday
or monday
You have a country? LOL
Quoting TampaSpin:


Looks like a problem for Jamiaca and Cuba, but i doubt the ConUS will ever see this thingy if it ever comes together.

I agree. I observed the loops & data of several of them this morning & didn't see anything that raised a red flag in my book.
000
WTNT33 KNHC 141436
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

...PAULA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING
ANTICIPATED AS THE STORM HUGS THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 84.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM WSW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA
HABANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...BUT A TURN
TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...PAULA WILL
CONTINUE TO HUG THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA OR MOVE INLAND OVER
CUBA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND PAULA COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN
CUBA TODAY PRIMARILY ALONG THE NORTH COAST. WINDS COULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS LATE TODAY.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH PAULA. THESE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE NORTH COAST OF EXTREME WESTERN CUBA.
THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Paula on her way to the ICU in Cuba. She's needs help & it's not looking good for her.

Surprise they even gave her 70mph. That's generous.
Quoting Waltanater:
You have a country? LOL
I thought we all did...Well, sorta......Where is all the moisture for our next system?...This???
Pressure is really starting to go up. Guess Paula wasn't ready for Cuba just yet.

""
Quoting TampaSpin:


Looks like a problem for Jamiaca and Cuba, but i doubt the ConUS will ever see this thingy if it ever comes together.
Possible, and that would be good. For those living in the CONUS. There are, of course, millions of people living in non-CONUS places such as Jamaica and Cuba and elsewhere in the area, so an intense hurricane there--as some of the models show--wouldn't be just a harmless "thingy".
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Paula on her way to the ICU in Cuba. She's needs help & it's not looking good for her.

Surprise they even gave her 70mph. That's generous.


The recon aircraft found Surface Winds of 67.9-74.8 MPH in their last pass through.
Quoting sleepysentry:
This has been such a strange hurricane season. The Gulf got very lucky. As for Cuba, the heavy rain from Paula will probably be devastating. Is there any chance it could redevelop in the Caribbean?

-Dan
Dell Venue Pro
Logitech Z-2300 Speakers



It won't be devastating, if Cuba can survive 100 inches from a tropical cyclone, it can surely deal with 4 inches.

This is the deep tropics, and daily rainfall greater than 4 inches isn't a big deal from thunderstorms.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

...PAULA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING
ANTICIPATED AS THE STORM HUGS THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 84.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM WSW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WOW LOOK AT THAT WIND SHEAR 70 knots NORTH OF THIS TROPICAL STORM..N.C WIND SHEAR OVER 100 KNOTS..
Quoting oracle28:


So to quote a fellow poster...
South Florida needs to make preparations NOW!!
For what exactly? No preparation is necessary for this one.
Quoting alvarig1263:


What website do you guys use to look at the long range models? Thanks

Thought I saw Neapolitan give you a link...and yes, that is a very good one.

Here's another one I like
Quoting Waltanater:
For what exactly? No preparation is necessary for this one.

He was making a sarcastic reference to a poster yesterday of whom was very passionate & certain FL was in trouble.
MIAMI FL..WIND SHEAR 60 KNOTS TO HIGH FOR ANY TROPICAL STORMS
Quoting Neapolitan:
Possible, and that would be good. For those living in the CONUS. There are, of course, millions of people living in non-CONUS places such as Jamaica and Cuba and elsewhere in the area, so an intense hurricane there--as some of the models show--wouldn't be just a harmless "thingy".




The southeast U.S. will likely not be hit by a tropical cyclone. As Ive been saying, its over. Fall began early in the southeast this year. Westerlies have dominated last couple weeks, and that will continue to hold as we had deeper towards the winter season. The tropics have obvious been cut off. It is extremely unlikely any hurricanes will make landfall in the southeast U.S. for the rest of the season. Ive been saying that for 2 weeks. It should be even more obvious now to those who are still skeptics.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Thought I saw Neapolitan give you a link...and yes, that is a very good one.

Here's another one I like

Nasty Nor Easter, "N":



PESKY Paula putzer:

Quoting cat5hurricane:

Thought I saw Neapolitan give you a link...and yes, that is a very good one.

Here's another one I like


Thanks
Quoting TampaSpin:
Morning Everyone......Looks like Paula is going Poof.....and models are hinting very loud for a new tropical system to form in the SW Caribbean.


Yeah, but that doesn't mean its a threat to the U.S. Hurricane season may continue in the deep tropics. But its pretty much over for the U.S.
Quoting Bordonaro:

Nasty Nor Easter, "N":

THAT LOOK LIKE A BIG NOREASTER TO ME..
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xo:
THAT LOOK LIKE A BIG NOREASTER TO ME..

Oh, only 985MB off MA/NH..Gonna be windy!!!
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah, but that doesn't mean its a threat to the U.S. Hurricane season may continue in the deep tropics. But its pretty much over for the U.S.

Shhhhhh :O). The Spirit of future Richard hears you, don't make him mad, or he will pull a Karl, Matthew, Nicole or a Paula!
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah, but that doesn't mean its a threat to the U.S. Hurricane season may continue in the deep tropics. But its pretty much over for the U.S.
To repeat myself: that's possible, and that would be good--for those living in the CONUS. There are, of course, millions of people living in non-CONUS places such as Jamaica and Cuba and elsewhere in the area, so an intense hurricane there--as some of the models show--wouldn't be harmless. IOW, the season isn't over.
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
From the old Blog.
Just sayin', as close as this is and still heading our way, I would think that they would err on the side of caution. more liveaboard boaters out on the hook than at docks down here.

But if the US Government did that, took pity on some liveaboards, every resident in Florida, even those in Escambia and Nassau counties, will take a 10% hit, over and above deductions on ANY occurrence which requires property insurance to help pay for the repair.

HH is heading home....



Quoting Bordonaro:

Oh, only 985MB off MA/NH..Gonna be windy!!!
U do not get northeaster in october that much..
126. bwi
Blog title spell check?

disintegrates, not "disintigrates"

as in: Paula's eyewall disintegrates as the storm weakens
Future Richard:
Off to take the mutts for a haircut.. you guys have fun

Complete Update



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xo:
U do not get northeaster in october that much..
Remember "The Perfect Storm?"

:)
Quoting Bordonaro:
Future Richard:


could you possibly post that link? tia
Quoting Thaale:

We're well above normal rainfall for the year and for the season in Dade and Broward, which is why all the talk about dry doesn't really resonate with many such as me, sammy and other South Floridians.

It resonated in '98 when you guys were up to your butt in forest fires and whimpering in all directions for help. 2200 fires weren't all north of I-4.
I spent my 65th birthday helping to fight a fire on 206 because a lot of guys were down south.
To Vincent4989, here's a a couple links to wunderbloggers who primarily delve into systems on your side of the world.

Western Pacific Corner

Link

Good luck and stay safe.
WOW 80 KNONTS WIND SHEAR IN THE GOM.
TropicalStormPaula's heading turned eastward to (7.3degrees east of) EastNorthEast
from its previous heading of (2.2degrees east of) NorthEast
TS.Paula's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions decreased to ~8.7mph(~13.9km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~12.7mph(~20.4km/h)
Category2
13Oct 03pmGMT - - 21.3n85.8w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#9
13Oct 06pmGMT - - 21.5n85.7w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - - 989mb -- NHC.Adv.#9A
Category1
13Oct 09pmGMT - - 21.7n85.6w - - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10
14Oct 12amGMT - - 21.8n85.6w - - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10A
14Oct 03amGMT - - 21.9n85.4w - - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv.#11
14Oct 06amGMT - - 22.2n85.2w - - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv.#11A
14Oct 09amGMT - - 22.3n84.9w - - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 999mb -- NHC.Adv.#12
14Oct 12pmGMT - - 22.7n84.5w - - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 999mb -- NHC.Adv.#12A
TropicalStorm
14Oct 03pmGMT - - 22.8n84.1w - - - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - - 1000mb -- NHC.Adv.#13

Copy &paste 21.3n85.8w, 21.5n85.7w, 21.7n85.6w, 21.8n85.6w, 21.9n85.4w-22.2n85.2w, 22.2n85.2w-22.3n84.9w, 22.3n84.9w-22.7n84.5w, 22.7n84.5w-22.8n84.1w, cun, cat, 22.8n84.1w-24.2n78w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~46hours from now to AndrosIsland,Bahamas
travelling toward MoxieTown

^ The easternmost line-segment is the straightline projection.


Got to see this link.

Link
Paula is still moving ne'ly. When does she just move e or better yet, se?
Posted by Tim_NC on 9/4/2010, 4:25 pm

My long experience with nor'easters was on the Delmarva coast; and being that season runs from October through March, most storms arrive with temps above to well above freezing.

Nor'easters month by month:

October, a transitional month between seasons, produces fierce, memorable storms; and thanks to sea surface temps at that time of year, the storms are quite warm.

November is the most boring month on the coast; probably because the temperature differential between land and sea are not great.

December is the second most boring month; again probably due to the temperature differential.

January and February are 'high-winter' when seriously cold air conflicts with ocean temps. Powerful nor'easters may occur any time in these months.

March, like October, is a transitional month; one capable of producing tremendous storms. In fact, the greatest Mid-Atlantic nor'easter on record occurred in March, 1962.

If one is a 'temperature wimp' the best time to catch a nor'easter is October. For those who can bear the cold, or just want to see a 'white hurricane' at any cost - January and February are the only times to go.
Quoting Grothar:


Got to see this link.

Link


looks like a lot of moisture heading up towards the keys
12z nogaps 850mb sends Paula on a very tight loop-de-loop back northwestern in this loop. i think it also shows the beginning of Richard down where Paula first formed by Panama.

Link


i dont see how that could be possible considering the shear in place.
Quoting augfan:

But if the US Government did that, took pity on some liveaboards, every resident in Florida, even those in Escambia and Nassau counties, will take a 10% hit, over and above deductions on ANY occurrence which requires property insurance to help pay for the repair.

So insurance premiums are more important than human safety? I really don't think the NHC, NWS, and other agencies base their decisions on insurance premiums. Data and experience tells them with maximum wind gusts of 40kt that are currently forecast for the Keys at this time which would only affect poorly anchored vessels, loose property items, weak tree limbs, etc., so no evacuation order. However, most of the Keys is under a tropical storm watch so residents and visitors should be wary that conditions may change for the worse.

At this time, they apparently don't feel human safety and property are in peril. As conditions change, they will adjust their message as they always do.
143. eddye
will south fla get any rain from paula
144. 7544
paula still moving ene nne or ne or e or se ?tia
Quoting eddye:
will south fla get any rain from paula


Yes. Maybe not a whole lot, but we will have "some" rain
146. 7544
Quoting alvarig1263:


Yes. Maybe not a whole lot, but we will have "some" rain


when

today or tomorow ? tia
Quoting eddye:
will south fla get any rain from paula
If you live here just look out your window if you don't Yes we may get some rain
Quoting Bordonaro:


Copycat-caster!
Quoting Neapolitan:
To repeat myself: that's possible, and that would be good--for those living in the CONUS. There are, of course, millions of people living in non-CONUS places such as Jamaica and Cuba and elsewhere in the area, so an intense hurricane there--as some of the models show--wouldn't be harmless. IOW, the season isn't over.
Proverbs 23:9
Quoting Grothar:


Copycat-caster!

NO, I am an enhancement caster, I just put the Long Range Loop on for everyone. P.S. looks like Paula's gonna rain all over S FL, maybe for days :O)
.....side profile of paula looking south on US41 in sarasota....taken about a hour ago
South Fl won't get any winds from Paula but it sure looks like some beneficial rains are coming.
Anyone know whats up with Patrap? Haven't seen him here in a while.
Good morning all

I just took a look at the GFS out to 180 hours. I sure hope this doesn't come to pass or we will have serious problems here for all three islands.

157. 7544
Quoting Bordonaro:

NO, I am an enhancement caster, I just put the Long Range Loop on for everyone. P.S. looks like Paula's gonna rain all over S FL, maybe for days :O)


could see that as paula has now tilted going east ne and the south conv. tilted north this hour moving east sw fla could get more than se fla even if she gets down to to td tonight they could bring alot of rain too . but she dosent look so bad at this hour for now anyway
Quoting nocaneindy:
Anyone know whats up with Patrap? Haven't seen him here in a while.

I saw him on Facebook, chatting with Presslord the other day :O)
159. 7544
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning all

I just took a look at the GFS out to 180 hours. I sure hope this doesn't come to pass or we will have serious problems here for all three islands.



hmmmm does go poleward or ne south of fla? tia
Quoting 7544:


could see that as paula has now tilted going east ne and the south conv. tilted north this hour moving east sw fla could get more than se fla even if she gets down to to td tonight they could bring alot of rain too . but she dosent look so bad at this hour for now anyway

She de-coupled, her upper-level & mid-level circulation have been unwound, and it's all heady to FL!!
Quoting eddye:
will south fla get any rain from paula



they should already be getting some...depends on where u are

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfwv.html

Link
162. 7544
yeap thanks look like paula just took a north jog again hmmm
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Proverbs 23:9


lmao...an obscure verse. looked it up, and it fit perfectly.

but then again just know you wont be wasting them on me. if i am ever wrong guys i wanna learn why :) hurricanes are very interesting.
Quoting 7544:


hmmmm does go poleward or ne south of fla? tia


The 06Z run shows the system crossing over Cuba and heading off to the NE through the Bahamas without reaching Florida but I caution that long range runs are very unreliable. We need to see if this system develops and then follow it if it does.

The GFS is indicating that a low will start to build in the SW Caribbean near the 100 hour mark from the run time posted above which is not far out at all ( 3 to 4 days approx)

The 12Z run is just coming out now.
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning all

I just took a look at the GFS out to 180 hours. I sure hope this doesn't come to pass or we will have serious problems here for all three islands.




yeah i watched that loop. like most storms i think this one will all come down to timing to determine where he goes. it looks like low pressure troughs drop down enough to influence steering so if and when he forms and how fast he gets up near the GOM could make a big difference where this thing goes.


is the nao still tanked showing big convection that should be present along the eastern side of the GOM during his formation and track north?
Quoting kmanislander:


The 06Z run shows the system crossing over Cuba and heading off to the NE through the Bahamas without reaching Florida but I caution that long range runs are very unreliable. We need to see if this system develops and then follow it if it does.

The GFS is indicating that a low will start to build in the SW Caribbean near the 100 hour mark from the run time posted above which is not far out at all ( 3 to 4 days approx)

The 12Z run is just coming out now.



agreed. if you watch the gfs do you see the troughs that are booking across the usa. it looks like depending on when he forms and how fast he moves north he could go bahamas or he could be pulled north-northwest for a time, all depends on timing
This is the GFS 12Z ( UTC ) run at 138 hours which is as far as the run has downloaded at this time

alot of energy heading east-northeast even though she is falling apart. look at the tornado warnings going up across the keys/s.fla. coastline
is the nao still tanked showing big convection that should be present along the eastern side of the GOM during his formation and track north?

I haven't had the time to look at that today. Just a couple of quick posts but will dig deeper later.


174 hrs
Quoting kmanislander:
is the nao still tanked showing big convection that should be present along the eastern side of the GOM during his formation and track north?

I haven't had the time to look at that today. Just a couple of quick posts but will dig deeper later.


k tia. i know i saw levi's video 2 days ago and he was showing the tanking of the nao and other variables that could bring big wv content across the eastern GOM just prior to his beginning formation and during his track northbound. if i remember right it showed the nao tanked for the remainder of october for the most part.
150 hours places it right on top of us again.

PECIAL MARINE WARNING
GMZ054-074-141715-
/O.NEW.KKEY.MA.W.0264.101014T1618Z-101014T1715Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1218 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
WATERS FROM THE WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST 20 TO 60
NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST
OUT 20 NM...

* UNTIL 115 PM EDT

* AT 1214 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING A WATERSPOUT LOCATED 26 NAUTICAL MILES
SOUTH OF AMERICAN SHOAL LIGHT...MOVING NORTH AT 15 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS...ROUGH SEAS...
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN...AND POSSIBLE
WATERSPOUTS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL
THREATENING WEATHER HAS PASSED.

YOU MAY REPORT SEVERE MARINE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DIRECTLY AT 3 0 5...2 9 5...1 3 1 6...EXTENSION 3.

&&

LAT...LON 2434 8160 2432 8129 2391 8138 2393 8159
TIME...MOT...LOC 1616Z 182DEG 15KT 2409 8147

$$

NELSON

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1158 AM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

GMZ053-073-074-141630-
/O.CON.KKEY.MA.W.0262.000000T0000Z-101014T1630Z/
1158 AM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

...A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM EDT...

FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS...
WATERS FROM THE WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST 20 TO 60
NM...
WATERS FROM CRAIG KEY TO THE WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE 20 TO 60
NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM CRAIG KEY TO THE WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE
OUT 20 NM...

AT 1153 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING A WATERSPOUT 26 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHEAST OF
SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS...ROUGH SEAS...
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN...AND POSSIBLE
ADDITIONAL WATERSPOUTS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL THREATENING WEATHER HAS PASSED.

YOU MAY REPORT SEVERE MARINE WEATHER DIRECTLY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING 3 0 5...2 9 5...1 3 1 6...EXTENSION 3.

&&

LAT...LON 2446 8097 2436 8070 2393 8093 2402 8119
TIME...MOT...LOC 1557Z 216DEG 12KT 2423 8091

$$

NELSON
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Tropical Tidbit for Thursday, October 14th, with Video



ty levi. your a tropical genius :) i look forward to your videos each day. off to watch right now :)
Back later
its hard to imagine that much moisture being in that area that quick.. its pretty dry down there after paula left
Caymans, Jamaica, Puerto Rico and some other islands can't seem to stay dry this year!
Quoting rossclick:
its hard to imagine that much moisture being in that area that quick.. its pretty dry down there after paula left

Not for long!!!
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning all

I just took a look at the GFS out to 180 hours. I sure hope this doesn't come to pass or we will have serious problems here for all three islands.


GFS is really bombing this next storm. Slow mover in the general direction of Jamaica.

Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:


lmao...an obscure verse. looked it up, and it fit perfectly.

but then again just know you wont be wasting them on me. if i am ever wrong guys i wanna learn why :) hurricanes are very interesting.
Got accused a while back of promoting a certain viewpoint so decided to use wisdom from a more inclusive source. If I was a little better educated I am sure I could find something even older from the Chinese or equally appropriate from the Koran, Greeks or Romans.
Quoting rossclick:
its hard to imagine that much moisture being in that area that quick.. its pretty dry down there after paula left



watch levi's video :) may help you to understand
what is the long-term prediction for the 2011 season? it is going to be an extension of la nina? or are we going to go neutral or el nino? just curious
This is very alarming if you live in FL. That system is moving NNW or NW at day 8.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_192.shtml



12z gfs out 228 hrs
Quoting aspectre:
TropicalStormPaula's heading turned eastward to (7.3degrees east of) EastNorthEast
from its previous heading of (2.2degrees east of) NorthEast
TS.Paula's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions decreased to ~8.7mph(~13.9km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~12.7mph(~20.4km/h)
Category2
13Oct 03pmGMT - - 21.3n85.8w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#9
13Oct 06pmGMT - - 21.5n85.7w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - - 989mb -- NHC.Adv.#9A
Category1
13Oct 09pmGMT - - 21.7n85.6w - - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10
14Oct 12amGMT - - 21.8n85.6w - - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10A
14Oct 03amGMT - - 21.9n85.4w - - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv.#11
14Oct 06amGMT - - 22.2n85.2w - - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv.#11A
14Oct 09amGMT - - 22.3n84.9w - - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 999mb -- NHC.Adv.#12
14Oct 12pmGMT - - 22.7n84.5w - - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 999mb -- NHC.Adv.#12A
TropicalStorm
14Oct 03pmGMT - - 22.8n84.1w - - - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - - 1000mb -- NHC.Adv.#13

Copy &paste 21.3n85.8w, 21.5n85.7w, 21.7n85.6w, 21.8n85.6w, 21.9n85.4w-22.2n85.2w, 22.2n85.2w-22.3n84.9w, 22.3n84.9w-22.7n84.5w, 22.7n84.5w-22.8n84.1w, cun, cat, 22.8n84.1w-24.2n78w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~46hours from now to AndrosIsland,Bahamas
travelling toward MoxieTown

^ The easternmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

12Z GFS (500mb) at 252 hours out.

Granted, it's a long way away, & the chances of this actually playing out probably aren't very good.

Click to Enlarge



And this is why it'll stay out of the GOM if it even forms
Interesting GFS 12z:



276 hrs out
191. 7544
Quoting Drakoen:
Interesting GFS 12z:



lo right on top of so fla here we go again another wait watch and see . but could this be the one this late ?
Quoting Drakoen:
Interesting GFS 12z:



OMG! FL better be prepared next week for what looks like a major hurricane.
Quoting 7544:


lo right on top of so fla here we go again another wait watch and see . but could this be the one this late ?


C and S FL just down right gets hammered by this run.
Quoting 7544:


lo right on top of so fla here we go again another wait watch and see . but could this be the one this late ?


Wilma, did it to us in 2005. 5 years later? I think it could happen again.
Quoting Drakoen:
Interesting GFS 12z:



What is the website for these models?
one model one run too far out to predict yet
Quoting will40:


276 hrs out


What website has these models?

Edit: Nevermind, found this one
Quoting alvarig1263:


What website has these models?
Link
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Tropical Tidbit for Thursday, October 14th, with Video


Hello Levi, thanks for the great update.
Quoting will40:
Link


Thank you, I was on the right website. I just didn't know out of the 1,000 different plots which one to click. lol - got it now. Thanks
Quoting FLstormwarning:


C and S FL just down right gets hammered by this run.


if the models trend that way in 5 days that is trouble for florida. if the gao and nao are right and pressure is bottoming out with that track that system will be over water comparable to sst's and depth temp's found in the GOM in late august (or close to it). it also tends to shy the track away from the GOM that has a trend of cold troughs dead ending near the tip of the yucatan, so i wonder how much dry/cold air the system will intake (or not intake) in that far of a northern run from that eastern longitude.
By looking at the GFS models. What looks like what will help future "Richard" is the fact they don't put him moving over Honduras and Nicaragua. By that not happening Richard has a better chance of intensifying quickly. Instead of having to deal with land or proximity to land. IMO
does the la nina trend negate energy building up in the pacific or does it just suppress it? i'm starting to learn how this is all based on newton's 3rd. law of nature (conservation of energy).
Next problem is brewing off the coast of Panama!


GFS models also predicting 20 knot or less shear for the Caribbean and the lower half of the GOM, around the period of time Richard would be developing and moving then into the GOM.
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:
does the la nina trend negate energy building up in the pacific or does it just suppress it? i'm starting to learn how this is all based on newton's 3rd. law of nature (conservation of energy).


supresses it the ocean temperatures are much cooler in the Pacific
Quoting Bordonaro:
Next problem is brewing off the coast of Panama!


yes but its coming from the pacific really. lol
Quoting FLstormwarning:


C and S FL just down right gets hammered by this run.


But that's impossible. RitaEvac and Jedkins have spoken. Season is over. :)


[sarcasm flag on] [Long range grain of salt, too]
Quoting Seastep:


But that's impossible. RitaEvac and Jedkins have spoken. Season is over. :)


Yea... I wouldn't go exactly with their opinion. I'm sure we all want to believe that, but we still have some 45 days of the 2010 Hurricane Season to go. Let's just stay on alert and see what happens. ;)
Quoting Seastep:


But that's impossible. RitaEvac and Jedkins have spoken. Season is over. :)


[sarcasm flag on] [Long range grain of salt, too]


Ike has spoken too that the season is over for the GOM:)
worldwide sst's

Link
213. 7544
and paula not giving in yet looks like shes trying to get more convection going at this hour to her south moving ene
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:
worldwide sst's

Link



alot of energy in the west pacific and i think nea said that it has been a record year for lack of typhoon ace's right?
Quoting alvarig1263:


Yea... I wouldn't go exactly with their opinion. I'm sure we all want to believe that, but we still have some 45 days of the 2010 Hurricane Season to go. Let's just stay on alert and see what happens. ;)


Yep. Just ribbing. :)
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:


yes but its coming from the pacific really. lol

Exactly, the E PAC monsoon has been forced into the SW Caribbean, compliments of the LA NINA!
Quoting Bordonaro:

Exactly, the E PAC monsoon has been forced into the SW Caribbean, compliments of the LA NINA!



yeah i am slowly beginning to understand more and more by the minute. so when its a la nina they always predict more hurricanes because the statistical chances are higher for an extended season due to pent up energy that hasn;t been able to vent in the west pacific in the form of typhoons. and vice versa for el nino. aaaahhh i get it lol

so in a neutral year the atlantic and west pacific will generally (or statistically the bell curve peaks at) an end to the season simultaneously but when one area or the other gets a stuffed up all year at the end of the season newton's 3rd law kicks in and mother earth vents the best she can....now im understanding. lol


hang in there with me, i may be ignorant but i learn fast :)tia everyone for your advice and guidance/knowledge.
218. afj3
This could be bad. The remnants could reform into a new system. Wasn't Katrina the product of the remnants of a previous system?
Quoting Seastep:


Yep. Just ribbing. :)


lol
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:

yeah i am slowly beginning to understand more and more by the minute. so when its a la nina they always predict more hurricanes because the statistical chances are higher for an extended season due to pent up energy that hasn;t been able to vent in the west pacific in the form of typhoons. and vice versa for el nino. aaaahhh i get it lol

so in a neutral year the atlantic and west pacific will generally (or statistically the bell curve peaks at) an end to the season simultaneously but when one area or the other gets a stuffed up all year at the end of the season newton's 3rd law kicks in and mother earth vents the best she can....now im understanding. lol


hang in there with me, i may be ignorant but i learn fast :)tia everyone for your advice and guidance/knowledge.

You have a good knowledge base :O)
Quoting afj3:
This could be bad. The remnants could reform into a new system. Wasn't Katrina the product of the remnants of a previous system?


Where you seeing this? Not doubting, just wondering :)
Quoting WxLogic:
12Z NOGAPS

Great! The ECMWF, NOGAPS & GFS forecast the same wonder "R" storm, Richard!!
224. afj3
Quoting alvarig1263:


Where you seeing this? Not doubting, just wondering :)

Not seeing it but latest runs are seriously stretching south and back westward. I was asking more of a question than making a forecast. I do see how my wording came off wrong....
Quoting WxLogic:
12Z NOGAPS



OMG, almost all the models are predicting Richard to be a monster. And I have a bunch of friend named Richard. I feel bad for them. lol


It's funny how we all wonder what's going to happen 5-7 days from now. And we're all struggling to find out what this system is going to do. But in just a short 5-7 days. we'll know. lol
Quoting Bordonaro:

You have a good knowledge base :O)



so if the nao bottoms out (low pressure) and the gao goes positive that correlates into low pressure forming in the caribbean in a la nina year at this point? does that mean that the gao is feeding energy in and the nao is forming low pressure...combining to make a hurricane?
Keep in mind that La Nina means a strip of the ocean surface near the equator is cooler than normal. It can happen because of evaporation and the ocean becomes cooler,(a net change) or just upwelling where deeper cooler water is exposed to the surface (no net change in ocean temps occurs).
I don't know if the zone gets shade like the Atlantic does from African dust on occasion.
In any case the effect on the ocean/atmosphere interface due to a cooler water surface would be the same.
Quoting afj3:

Not seeing it but latest runs are seriously stretching south and back westward. I was asking more of a question than making a forecast. I do see how my wording came off wrong....


Well I'm not sure myself. I'll let someone else answer it. lol
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:



so if the nao bottoms out (low pressure) and the gao goes positive that correlates into low pressure forming in the caribbean in a la nina year at this point?

Exactly! High pressure builds from the Bermuda High and the E PAC at the same time, and guess where the area of Low pressure is? The Caribbean Sea!
Quoting Bordonaro:

Great! The ECMWF, NOGAPS & GFS forecast the same wonder "R" storm, Richard!!


ECMWF is not quite agreeing yet. We'll see how the 12Z run does and if 12Z CMC also joins in as this could be a larger system if it does.

If ECMWF and CMC don't join then we could be looking at a similar size disturbance as Paula, but definitely looks the cyclogenesis region is starting to become increasingly conductive for development next week.
Quoting biff4ugo:
Keep in mind that La Nina means a strip of the ocean surface near the equator is cooler than normal. It can happen because of evaporation and the ocean becomes cooler,(a net change) or just upwelling where deeper cooler water is exposed to the surface (no net change in ocean temps occurs).
I don't know if the zone gets shade like the Atlantic does from African dust on occasion.
In any case the effect on the ocean/atmosphere interface due to a cooler water surface would be the same.


yeah i saw that there was a long streak of cold water very close to the equator on the sst map in the pacific. i wondered what that was. so let me ask you...does that mean that the strip of cold water inhibits typhoons from forming, thus explaining why the sst map shows a ton of pent up energy off of the coast of china...and because newton's 3rd law says that energy is conserved and because earth wants to gain stasis mother earth starts sending big energy over to the caribbean from the west pacific because she has to cool down some way and take her heat and energy polar at this time of year?
232. JRRP
Quoting Bordonaro:

Great! The ECMWF, NOGAPS & GFS forecast the same wonder "R" storm, Richard!!

ECMWF ???
i do not see it

233. xcool
Tonight

45°
for slidell la
Hello all......I am a longtime WU Watcher (something about the term Lurker..just don't like... lol]. Each day I come on here and "dreamcast"... desperately in search of something to move this way and put an end to these terrible and dangerous drought conditions. Certainly , nothing dangerous to anyone...but just a slow and soaking rain for us here in the central gulf area. ANYONE see any hope soon?
235. JRRP
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Hello all......I am a longtime WU Watcher (something about the term Lurker..just don't like... lol]. Each day I come on here and "dreamcast"... desperately in search of something to move this way and put an end to these terrible and dangerous drought conditions. Certainly , nothing dangerous to anyone...but just a slow and soaking rain for us here in the central gulf area. ANYONE see any hope soon?


what would serve you better, unless i am misunderstanding alot of what i have learned today, is for the pressure to drop and for storms to form. :)
Quoting biff4ugo:
Keep in mind that La Nina means a strip of the ocean surface near the equator is cooler than normal. It can happen because of evaporation and the ocean becomes cooler,(a net change) or just upwelling where deeper cooler water is exposed to the surface (no net change in ocean temps occurs).
I don't know if the zone gets shade like the Atlantic does from African dust on occasion.
In any case the effect on the ocean/atmosphere interface due to a cooler water surface would be the same.


Add to that the near absence of any Kekvin waves and you almost have it
Quoting Floodman:


Add to that the near absence of any Kekvin waves and you almost have it


whats a kekvin wave? haha that sounds cool like something that makes the USS enterprise go on star trek. lol


the kekvin waves are maxed captain...i'm pushing her as hard as i can,....i don't want excuses Scotty, just make it happen....lol
Quoting JRRP:

ECMWF ???
i do not see it


Quoting JRRP:

ECMWF ???
i do not see it



AS mentioned in a previous comment, the ECMWF model is not showing "Richard" developing yet. I'm not sure exactly what he was talking about, but we will just have to wait for the next model runs of the ECMWF and see what they say.
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Are you Sarcastic or Being Serious?


Re: Post 23 this thread.

I am being very serous.

Yes, Paul is Cuba bound.

Yes, the fire season in South Florida will be horrendous next spring. The rainfall has not been near enough to keep the underbrush from getting way too dry come January and the first lightning strikes will cause fires everywhere in South Florida.
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:


whats a kekvin wave? haha that sounds cool like something that makes the USS enterprise go on star trek. lol


He meant "Kelvin Wave" lol
Quoting alvarig1263:


He meant "Kelvin Wave" lol


ooh....still sounded funny...


lol
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Hello all......I am a longtime WU Watcher (something about the term Lurker..just don't like... lol]. Each day I come on here and "dreamcast"... desperately in search of something to move this way and put an end to these terrible and dangerous drought conditions. Certainly , nothing dangerous to anyone...but just a slow and soaking rain for us here in the central gulf area. ANYONE see any hope soon?


From one newbie to another, welcome.
ok i kinda get it with kelvin waves. they are horizontal, or longitude waves. and when pressures drop it makes the wave bend, and because the bend is perpendicular of the direction in which it is heading it bends the wave in on itself, thus creating the beginning of a vortex?
000
WTNT33 KNHC 141750
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
200 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

...CENTER OF PAULA NEAR PUERTO ESPERANZA ON THE NORTH COAST OF PINAR
DEL RIO PROVINCE CUBA...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 83.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM E OF PUERTO ESPERANZA CUBA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM W OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA
HABANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA IS MOVING NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF
CUBA JUST EAST OF PUERTO ESPERANZA. AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE
CENTER OF PAULA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE
83.5 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 10 MPH...16
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...PAULA WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE NORTH
COAST OF WESTERN CUBA OR MOVE INLAND OVER CUBA TODAY.

PAULA IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...105 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND PAULA
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE SPREADING EASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TODAY PRIMARILY ALONG THE NORTH COAST. WINDS
COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS LATE
TODAY.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH PAULA. THESE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
247. JRRP
Quoting Bordonaro:


GFS
Quoting alvarig1263:


AS mentioned in a previous comment, the ECMWF model is not showing "Richard" developing yet. I'm not sure exactly what he was talking about, but we will just have to wait for the next model runs of the ECMWF and see what they say.

yea
TROPICAL AND WINTER WX UPDATE

I have activated my Winter Weather Graphics as that time of the year has now started! Enjoy!
JJHPM suggests that paula will intensify to a cat 3 an make landfall in the florida keys...BTW not wishcasting..i dont even live in florida
Quoting unruly:
jjhpm suggets that paula will intensify to a cat 3 an make landfall in the florida keys...BTW not wishcasting..i dont even live in florids


The long range models predictions are still days away, and they could change. But with the way things are looking now, and the agreement between the models for the development of an intense system, that is definitely a true possibility.
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:
ok i kinda get it with kelvin waves. they are horizontal, or longitude waves. and when pressures drop it makes the wave bend, and because the bend is perpendicular of the direction in which it is heading it bends the wave in on itself, thus creating the beginning of a vortex?

wait i didnt read on now i see what a kelvin wave is. what you were saying is that kelvin waves have a tendency to be trapped along the equator. so when the energy moves from the west pacific towards the caribbean because of kelvin waves the energy cannot create a hurricane or typhoon. the forces on the wave trap it at the equator, or close to it. thats why there aren't hurricanes that form backwards. the energy is forced to ride in a straight line towards the east until it finds a place it can build up in order to go polar, hence the formation in the caribbean to send the hurricane east to west polar.

sorry for the 1st paragraph i was confused i was reading the definition and i should have read on. lol
TampaSpin - was down in your area this weekend visiting family and was to take in the "bolts" opening game. I take it you are not a Tampa Lightning Fan?
Quoting unruly:
JJHPM suggests that paula will intensify to a cat 3 an make landfall in the florida keys...BTW not wishcasting..i dont even live in florida


Not Paula but, Richard!
Are we sure about the next storm being "Richard" as in the American pronunciation. Seems like the NHC goes with some odd pronunciations from time to time. Could this be Ree kard....or Rih shard? Could get the nickname "Rocket"?
Thank you SweetHomeBamGOM and PakaSurvivor for responding. I have been here for 4 years, but only recently registered. I have always appreciated the site and the insight of many here.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Not Paula but, Richard!
sorry...touche'
Quoting PakaSurvivor:
TampaSpin - was down in your area this weekend visiting family and was to take in the "bolts" opening game. I take it you are not a Tampa Lightning Fan?


OH YES....love the Bolts. Going to the next home game on Monday. They are looking good! Play those dam Flyers tonite after a tuff overtime win last nite. :)
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Thank you SweetHomeBamGOM and PakaSurvivor for responding. I have been here for 4 years, but only recently registered. I have always appreciated the site and the insight of many here.



lol no problem. but in all honesty im a noob trying to figure out hurricanes. there are some really smart people here, like nea, kman, levi, ike, alot of em....if i know whats going on i can pass on the info but they deserve all the credit.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Hello all......I am a longtime WU Watcher (something about the term Lurker..just don't like... lol]. Each day I come on here and "dreamcast"... desperately in search of something to move this way and put an end to these terrible and dangerous drought conditions. Certainly , nothing dangerous to anyone...but just a slow and soaking rain for us here in the central gulf area. ANYONE see any hope soon?
Short answer: Fugeddaboudit. Not anytime soon.
(But, remember how wet last winter was? We'll likely not see that again, but, it is a historically wet season for us, here. Should begin to get more rainfall with stronger fronts in the next couple of months.)
Quoting DookiePBC:
Are we sure about the next storm being "Richard" as in the American pronunciation. Seems like the NHC goes with some odd pronunciations from time to time. Could this be Ree kard....or Rih shard?


2010
Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle dan-YELL
Earl
Fiona
Gaston ga-STAWN
Hermine her-MEEN
Igor EE-gor
Julia
Karl
Lisa LEE-sa
Matthew
Nicole ni-COLE
Otto
Paula
Richard RICH-erd
Shary SHA-ree
Tomas to-MAS
Virginie vir-JIN-ee
Walter

NHC Pronunciation of Storm Names
Quoting atmoaggie:
Short answer: Fugeddaboudit. Not anytime soon.
(But, remember how wet last winter was? We'll likely not see that again, but, it is a historically wet season for us, here. Should begin to get more rainfall with stronger fronts soon.)



the nao is tanking. we are suppose to see a lot more moisture across the gulf region in the next couple of weeks. fla may see way too much combined with sustained hurricane force winds (according to the models all the meteorologists are inspecting and extrapolating from right now :)
Good afternoon all.

A little blob of southwest moving convection, with lightening and squally winds is just passing through here.
Intermittent medium/heavy showers and gusty conditions.
Lots of cloud-cloud noises!

Should clear out in a while, but nice while it lasts....
Wow the timing and devlopment if the new system in the SW Caribbean develops is going to be very important as to where it goes and how strong it becomes. Need to really watch this one close.
Quoting LightningCharmer:


2010
Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle dan-YELL
Earl
Fiona
Gaston ga-STAWN
Hermine her-MEEN
Igor EE-gor
Julia
Karl
Lisa LEE-sa
Matthew
Nicole ni-COLE
Otto
Paula
Richard RICH-erd
Shary SHA-ree
Tomas to-MAS
Virginie vir-JIN-ee
Walter

NHC Pronunciation of Storm Names



remember to say Colin right (Call-in)

said wrong it may sound like something else lol
Quoting LightningCharmer:


2010
Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle dan-YELL
Earl
Fiona
Gaston ga-STAWN
Hermine her-MEEN
Igor EE-gor
Julia
Karl
Lisa LEE-sa
Matthew
Nicole ni-COLE
Otto
Paula
Richard RICH-erd
Shary SHA-ree
Tomas to-MAS
Virginie vir-JIN-ee
Walter

NHC Pronunciation of Storm Names


Or we could just call him Rick. Or even...
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:



the nao is tanking. we are suppose to see a lot more moisture across the gulf region in the next couple of weeks. fla may see way too much combined with sustained hurricane force winds (according to the models all the meteorologists are inspecting and extrapolating from right now :)
I won't be putting any faith into that until I see it begin to develop...
Quoting Floodman:


Add to that the near absence of any Kekvin waves and you almost have it
....paula and nicole where both spawned from kelvin waves moving out of the east pac over central america and into the west carib...
Quoting atmoaggie:
I won't be putting any faith into that until I see it begin to develop...



agreed :) panic and fear mongering sucks.

but keep an eye out, if your in fla you may need to prepare, but im sure you will hear it on the news in time if need be :)
Quoting DookiePBC:
Are we sure about the next storm being "Richard" as in the American pronunciation. Seems like the NHC goes with some odd pronunciations from time to time. Could this be Ree kard....or Rih shard? Could get the nickname "Rocket"?


LOL
Quoting Thaale:


Or we could just call him Rick. Or even...
I promise that many in SE LA would pronounce it with the French inflection (REE-shard) if it were to be a local threat (noway).
I'm just waiting until they get to Tomas!
Quoting stillwaiting:
....paula and nicole where both spawned from kelvin waves moving out of the east pac over central america and into the west carib...


so did i get that right or the basic idea of it. it's a wave that heads east when the pressure builds up in the east pacific. and because it cannot go polar when it heads east to west it builds up in the atlantic and then forms a hurricane in order to vent the heat out of the tropics?
Quoting TampaTom:
I'm just waiting until they get to Tomas!
Might not happen.
Just sayin'

Quoting DookiePBC:
 Rih shard? Could get the nickname "Rocket"?
Pocket Rocket? You've got to be as old as me to use that reference.
Funny, but it is the best Paula has ever looked.

Quoting Grothar:
Funny, but it is the best Paula has ever looked.


Nah!
Quoting Grothar:
Funny, but it is the best Paula has ever looked.

You sound like your in love....Wuzup Geritol Boy.....:)
Quoting Grothar:
Funny, but it is the best Paula has ever looked.



Why does it look like she's coming here?
Gaining knowledge so I have little to offer. I wanted to be sure you were welcomed to the best weather site I've found. Most here will answer your questions and provide some humor to boot!
Quoting hydrus:
You sound like your in love....Wuzup Geritol Boy.....:)

It's just that he cant remember what she looked like day before yesterday.
heheheh
Quoting caneswatch:


Why does it look like she's coming here?


whats the weather like there in s.fla? are you being pounded with downpours?
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

you can see whats left of paulas eye
Nogaps and GFS are trending Future Richard to FL next week. Anything on the CMC yet?
Quoting PakaSurvivor:
Gaining knowledge so I have little to offer. I wanted to be sure you were welcomed to the best weather site I've found. Most here will answer your questions and provide some humor to boot!

Actually, everyone here will answer your questions.
That way, you get to have 167 different answers.
It's great!
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:


whats the weather like there in s.fla? are you being pounded with downpours?


It's been cloudy all day, light rain showers, but nothing serious yet.
Quoting PakaSurvivor:
Gaining knowledge so I have little to offer. I wanted to be sure you were welcomed to the best weather site I've found. Most here will answer your questions and provide some humor to boot!


Somtimes you'll get a whole lot more of the unexpected.
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:


whats the weather like there in s.fla? are you being pounded with downpours?


Haven't had rain since this morning, and that was just some sprinkles. Had more rain Tuesday morning than today. The rain should pickup soon, but I know the keys have been getting quite a bit of rain. I live on the southwest coast of FL in Naples.
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:


whats the weather like there in s.fla? are you being pounded with downpours?


I can tell you that in SouthEast Palm Beach County we haven't seen much in the way of heavy rain at all. Very light breeze.
Quoting PakaSurvivor:
Gaining knowledge so I have little to offer. I wanted to be sure you were welcomed to the best weather site I've found. Most here will answer your questions and provide some humor to boot!


i completely agree.
Quoting pottery:

It's just that he cant remember what she looked like day before yesterday.
heheheh
Yeah, I know...He can remember a philosophy speech Socrates gave in 480 B.C., but forgets Paula AND his vitamins....
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:


whats the weather like there in s.fla? are you being pounded with downpours?


East Fort Lauderdale here, been cloudy and overcast all day, a few sprinkles, light breeze. And actually looking out the window now, the air looks pretty calm.
Sudden burst of convection

Quoting rmbjoe1954:


Somtimes you'll get a whole lot more of the unexpected.


Like I said....I've been here reading and studying for 4 years..lol.. I've seen the Good, Bad, and The Ugly ! Just take it all in stride.....
I will call the storm if it forms 'little richard'!:)
Paula might not be done. Looks like she is moving well south of the Forecast point. Heck she appears to be taking the shortest route back into the Caribbean over Cuba. Wouldn't that be something.
Quoting Grothar:
Sudden burst of convection

That is some warm water there...I think we will see a couple more of those..
Quoting FLstormwarning:
Nogaps and GFS are trending Future Richard to FL next week. Anything on the CMC yet?


CMC? Haven't seen it yet, but I'd guess at least 2 or 3 Cat 5's hitting Miami from hrs 180 tto 240.
Quoting iamajeepmom:


East Fort Lauderdale here, been cloudy and overcast all day, a few sprinkles, light breeze. And actually looking out the window now, the air looks pretty calm.


In other words, the weather is much worse than during Bonnie.
Quoting hydrus:
You sound like your in love....Wuzup Geritol Boy.....:)


So, anything new in the tropics??
Quoting Bordonaro:


The Center is over land on the southwest end of the big blob.
I think the COC of Paula will be South of Cuba by late tonight/early am, back in the NW Caribbean sea, kinda strange track.
Is Richard supposed to form from the area of Convection N of Panama?
Paula center is coming to Havana. A member of the Meteorological Society of Cuba in La Lisa reported a minimum pressure of 1009 mb. It's almost a joke.
Quoting Grothar:
Funny, but it is the best Paula has ever looked.

...on that color scale.

By cloud top temps, ehh, notsogood, Mr Geritol-boy, sir.

Looks like her convection is getting blown over Key West. What are the conditions like down there??
Quoting NOLALawyer:
Looks like her convection
or lack, thereof,
Quoting NOLALawyer:
is getting blown over Key West. What are the conditions like down there??
Should Paula do a full circle and merge with Richard will they have a Cat 3 baby?
Quoting stormpetrol:
Is Richard supposed to form from the area of Convection N of Panama?


No, that's just some convection that's there. We will probably begin to see signs of something developing by Monday maybe. IMO
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:


whats the weather like there in s.fla? are you being pounded with downpours?


Miami Lakes here and haven't seen a drop of rain all day
Right!
Not one durn tootin' thing threatening anyone right now.
So I will be back tonight, when all he£^ breaks loose...
312. JRRP

FWIW, 12Z GFDL and HWRF both say through the straits and into the Bahamas. Not that Paula will be much of anything.



Quoting atmoaggie:
...on that color scale.

By cloud top temps, ehh, notsogood, Mr Geritol-boy, sir.



Figured you would find a way to best me. By the way, what system is that over Cuba?
Quoting DookiePBC:


In other words, the weather is much worse than during Bonnie.

Yup, that would be a good comparison!
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Like I said....I've been here reading and studying for 4 years..lol.. I've seen the Good, Bad, and The Ugly ! Just take it all in stride.....


I first snooped starting after the 2005 hurricane season. Seen the Good and the Bad, must have missed the UGLY! I don't like Ugly!
Quoting FLGatorCaneNut:


Miami Lakes here and haven't seen a drop of rain all day


In West Kendall it has been cloudy and some sprinkles earlier on but nothing else
I think Paula with emerge south of Cuba later tonight weakened but her COC vigorous and intact, will be interesting to see this one unfold, already moving ESE/SE imo, picking one of the narrowest strips of land to cross too looks like.
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think Paula with emerge south of Cuba later tonight weakened but her COC vigorous and intact, will be interesting to see this one unfold, already moving ESE/SE imo, picking one of the narrowest strips of land to cross too looks like.

Should be an absolutely gorgeous weekend for all of S FL.
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think Paula with emerge south of Cuba later tonight weakened but her COC vigorous and intact, will be interesting to see this one unfold, already moving ESE/SE imo, picking one of the narrowest strips of land to cross too looks like.


Could be, but CMC is all alone now in supporting that scenario with the 12Z runs.

Wonder if NHC will adjust the cone accordingly at 5pm.

Haven't seen the 12Z ECMWF yet.

EDIT: Forgot that they don't change the cone at 5pm.
watch out here..
Quoting DookiePBC:


In other words, the weather is much worse than during Bonnie.


Hey, I lost 3 leaves off my tree during Bonnie, that was no joke.
Quoting Thaale:


Or we could just call him Rick. Or even...
call him Rich....in light of recent events this seems appropriate on many levels.
A perfect storm of names and innuendo if ever there was one.
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, I lost 3 leaves off my tree during Bonnie, that was no joke.


I lost a twig. It's no laughing matter.
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, I lost 3 leaves off my tree during Bonnie, that was no joke.
I heard a report of a half can of beer blowing over unnoticed resulting in a total loss during Bonnie. Had it been full, this might not be such a sad story.
Quoting Grothar:


Figured you would find a way to best me. By the way, what system is that over Cuba?
Wasn't about besting you...only checking out what you said. Evaluating the statement with other sources, etc.

Take care (especially on the 8 steps from the desk to the Metamucil). L8R.
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think Paula with emerge south of Cuba later tonight weakened but her COC vigorous and intact, will be interesting to see this one unfold, already moving ESE/SE imo, picking one of the narrowest strips of land to cross too looks like.
So should those in south peninsular Florida and the Keys wish for the south turn or have her bring what she has now, and not what she might have in the second go-around?
Quoting NOLALawyer:
Looks like her convection is getting blown over Key West. What are the conditions like down there??
Constant light rain, no wind. NO T&L at the moment. Edit: I forgot to mention TWC is here with a satelitte truck. NOW I know this is a nothing of a storm!
Gang Paula has decoupled. The ULL features are what you see the big blob and on radar while the LLC has moved inland into Cuba and almost moving ESE!
Quoting LightningCharmer:
I heard a report of a half can of beer blowing over unnoticed resulting in a total loss during Bonnie. Had it been full, this might not be such a sad story.


Anyone have a video of that?
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Now we wait for Dick.
I say we call him Rich, and think of the d word.
its coming the big storm for the northeast...wow look at all the heavy rain..
Quoting caneswatch:


I lost a twig. It's no laughing matter.


Noise must have been deafening.
Quoting Grothar:


Anyone have a video of that?
Could have been the neighbor...I see your point.
Quoting Grothar:


Anyone have a video of that?


I don't know if I could watch it. Might be too graphic for me to take and hold it together.
Quoting Grothar:


Noise must have been deafening.


Oh it was loud. I can't help but laughing while i'm writing this.
Quoting LightningCharmer:
I heard a report of a half can of beer blowing over unnoticed resulting in a total loss during Bonnie. Had it been full, this might not be such a sad story.


Ummm...that's why we have insurance. ;-)
This convection north of Panama looks like it will become something nasty in a few days. Waiting for the 18Z runs to see if the GFS and Nogaps solutions stay the same. If consistancy builds then FL better watchout next week. Major hurricane hitting FL this late in October would be right at the anniversary of Wilma. Pattern does support this idea as well. Trough moves by to the north next Tuesday and ULL moves in from the SW US and a S to SW steering takes hold over FL.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Gang Paula has decoupled. The ULL features are what you see the big blob and on radar while the LLC has moved inland into Cuba and almost moving ESE!


I'm thinking she just may finally have decoupled. Frame or two more and it should be clear.
Quoting DookiePBC:


Ummm...that's why we have insurance. ;-)


Umm, that would only be covered by flood insurance not wind - standard response by insurers
12z and 18z model cycles have suddenly come into good agreement on Paula going through the Florida Straights and on out to the ENE, in agreement with my track from yesterday, supporting the idea that this will not get stuck in the Caribbean.

Still hanging on, though.

1001mb and 68mph were found.
Quoting LightningCharmer:
I heard a report of a half can of beer blowing over unnoticed resulting in a total loss during Bonnie. Had it been full, this might not be such a sad story.
If a 1/2 beer can blows over and no one notices is it really a total loss? Questioning minds want to know.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
If a 1/2 beer can blows over and no one notices is it really a total loss? Questioning minds want to know.
'May depend on whether it was half-empty or half-full?

Quoting Seastep:
Still hanging on, though.

1001mb and 68mph were found.
It's amazing with the shear and dry air, and that could raise concern of her trending south through Cuba and re-emerging as some have posted here with reference to some of the model runs.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
If a 1/2 beer can blows over and no one notices is it really a total loss? Questioning minds want to know.

I know we're all joking about Bonnie, however Richard really concerns me!!!
Paula may have a surprise or two in store as to coordinates based upon this ASCAT pass today.

Quoting Levi32:
12z and 18z model cycles have suddenly come into good agreement on Paula going through the Florida Straights and on out to the ENE, in agreement with my track from yesterday, supporting the idea that this will not get stuck in the Caribbean.



The other models have finally caught on to the XTRP model, resulting in good model consensus, and high confidence in the forecast of a linear ENE path.
Paula may bring some much needed rain to FL next Tuesday as Paula loops back WNW. Levi this should get stuck SE of Miami.
Paula...
Quoting kmanislander:
Paula may have a surprise or two in store as to coordinates based upon this ASCAT pass today.



We just got the coordinates from the recon. 22.93N, 83.13W, just over the northern coast of Cuba.
Quoting Bordonaro:

I know we're all joking about Bonnie, however Richard really concerns me!!!
Matthew, Chapter VI, 34.
Models Say:

Quoting cat5hurricane:


Richard is being birthed I see north of Panama and notice the steering flow.
Quoting Levi32:


We just got the coordinates from the recon. 22.93N, 83.13W, just over the northern coast of Cuba.


How do you explain the pass then ?. It seems to show the center more on the South than the N coast
You Can See the Center of Paula on the Key West Radar :

Quoting sammywammybamy:
You Can See the Center of Paula on the Key West Radar :



Is the radar "seeing" the surface low or the mid level rotation which would appear to have decoupled from the surface low ?.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Matthew, Chapter VI, 34.

:O)
Quoting kmanislander:


How do you explain the pass then ?. It seems to show the center more on the South than the N coast


Center is Over N. Cuba

Mid Level Shear (15:00)

Click to Enlarge
Quoting kmanislander:


Is the radar "seeing" the surface low or the mid level rotation which would appear to have decoupled from the surface low ?.


Snipet from WU Jeopardy, with your host, Dr Jeff Masters (applause)

Question: Is the radar "seeing" the surface low or the mid level rotation which would appear to have decoupled from the surface low ?

Answer: What is the Surface Low. Correct for $1200.

May I have "Pesky, Paula Puns" for $1400, please?
Paula
Paula's probability of tropical storm winds to 69 hours lead

Click to Enlarge
Quoting Bordonaro:

Surface Low. Correct for $1200.

May I have "Pesky, Paula Puns" for $1400, please?


For $1600.00 and a chance to advance to the next round, how do you expalin the ASCAT pass ?
Quoting Bordonaro:

I know we're all joking about Bonnie, however Richard really concerns me!!!


I'm with you...

Hope we get to call him little Richard as the alternative of big Dick doesn't sound to good.
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Paula Should be:

40 MPH 1008 MB at 5PM

I'd say very close to that since the center is still over the northern coast of Cuba
Quoting TampaTom:


I'm with you...


LOL
Quoting kmanislander:


How do you explain the pass then ?. It seems to show the center more on the South than the N coast


Look at the floater and notice that the surface circulation is elongated to the south, which is typical of this kind of situation. This could possibly account for the appearance on the ASCAT pass, but the actual center position is inconclusive due to the land in the way. That was also at 10am EDT this morning.
Quoting Bordonaro:

I know we're all joking about Bonnie, however Richard really concerns me!!!


Why worry about something that hasn't even happened yet? I see people getting excited over models that don't pan out.
I get worried when we're 1 or 2 days out and I'm in the middle of the cone. Otherwise, I'm just watchin'
Quoting gordydunnot:
Hope we get to call him little Richard as the alternative of big Dick doesn't sound to good.


And if he's a small storm ?
Quoting Bordonaro:

Surface Low. Correct for $1200.

May I have "Pesky, Paula Puns" for $1400, please?


This ties into something I've wondered for awhile. The lowest tilt of the Key West radar is between 13,000 and 15,000 feet above ground level in the vicinity of where Paula's COC seems to be visible. In a tropical system, what heights distinguish one level (i.e. low level) from another (i.e. mid level)? Is the radar at 15,000 feet showing low level rotation or mid level?
Quoting kmanislander:


For $1600.00 and a chance to advance to the next round, how do you expalin the ASCAT pass ?


Answer: A microwave satellite feature than detects wind speeds at the surface and depicts the information as a surface map.

Correct for $1600.00 (applause). Bordonaro is in the lead with $2800.00.
Maybe since we have the photo already we can call him tricky Dick.
Quoting Levi32:


Look at the floater and notice that the surface circulation is elongated to the south, which is typical of this kind of situation. This could account for the appearance on the pass, but the actual center position is inconclusive due to the land in the way. That was also at 10am EDT this morning.


Yeah, I saw the time of the pass but even then the discrepancy between the given coordinates and the pass seem fundamentally different.

The HH would not fly over terrain so one is left to wonder to what extent they truly sampled the center of this now disjointed system.
Vortex message is extrapolated at 1003mb and shows a dry but very ill-defined core now, which is to be expected in a tropical storm this weak. However, convection continues to fire strongly in the northeast quad, and the pressure has fallen from the 1007mb measured earlier. This is Paula taking advantage of some of the baroclinic energy to stay on her feet, which is what I was mentioning yesterday about why this doesn't necessarily have to dissipate due to shear and lack of outflow, as long as it doesn't tangle too much with Cuba.

000
URNT12 KNHC 141929
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182010
A. 14/19:08:10Z
B. 22 deg 56 min N
083 deg 08 min W
C. 700 mb 3095 m
D. 39 kt
E. 276 deg 24 nm
F. 341 deg 30 kt
G. 276 deg 25 nm
H. EXTRAP 1003 mb
I. 10 C / 3037 m
J. 11 C / 3047 m
K. 3 C / NA

L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 0718A PAULA OB 04
MAX FL WIND 30 KT W QUAD 19:01:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 48 KT NE QUAD 19:25:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND MODERATE TURBULENCE OUTBOUND NE
Quoting FLstormwarning:


Richard is being birthed I see north of Panama and notice the steering flow.

I'd say that could be about right. Steering flow not good for Cayman & points nearby shall this thing develop.
Quoting 47n91w:


This ties into something I've wondered for awhile. The lowest tilt of the Key West radar is between 13,000 and 15,000 feet above ground level in the vicinity of where Paula's COC seems to be visible. In a tropical system, what heights distinguish one level (i.e. low level) from another (i.e. mid level)? Is the radar at 15,000 feet showing low level rotation or mid level?

OOPS! Bordonaro is wrong. It is the mid-level center :o)
Quoting Bordonaro:


Answer: A microwave satellite feature than detects wind speeds at the surface and depicts the information as a surface map.

Correct for $1600.00 (applause). Bordonaro is in the lead with $2800.00.


Clever !. A literal answer that skirts the intent of the question LOL
Quoting cat5hurricane:


Look at the Blob in the South Carribean...
neve mind mis understood
Quoting Grothar:


Noise must have been deafening.


I've got you all beat. Bonnie broke my 10x10 pop-up canopy's frame. Heart-rending, but not enough of a loss for a claim, dollar-wise. Had to perform major reconstructive surgery.

How are ya, Old-timer?
Quoting CycloneUK:




An extremely active Hurricane Season this year!!!
Quoting stillwaiting:
,atleast 22hrs old,no???


No, that pass was from approx. 1400 UTC this morning
Quoting reedzone:


An extremely active Hurricane Season this year!!!
Very :O)
396. Jax82
Quoting Grothar:


Paula looks more like a comet than a hurricane!
Quoting oracle28:


The other models have finally caught on to the XTRP model, resulting in good model consensus, and high confidence in the forecast of a linear ENE path.



That's funny right there, I don't care who ya are. LOL
398. JRRP
Quoting Bordonaro:

OOPS! Bordonaro is wrong. It is the mid-level center :o)


So, as I was saying what we see on the radar is removed from the surface low and of no help in determining where the surface center is.

In summary, I suspect more of the center is onshore than indicated by the stated coordinates.
Quoting kmanislander:


Yeah, I saw the time of the pass but even then the discrepancy between the given coordinates and the pass seem fundamentally different.

The HH would not fly over terrain so one is left to wonder to what extent they truly sampled the center of this now disjointed system.


The direction of the winds found during this pass don't really seem to leave much room for a "real" center location farther south though.

Quoting Bordonaro:


Snipet from WU Jeopardy, with your host, Dr Jeff Masters (applause)

Question: Is the radar "seeing" the surface low or the mid level rotation which would appear to have decoupled from the surface low ?

Answer: What is the Surface Low. Correct for $1200.

May I have "Pesky, Paula Puns" for $1400, please?
Please prepare for Paula's pesky precipitation. I know it is not a pun, but couldn't think of anything but alliteration:)
Quoting kmanislander:


So, as I was saying what we see on the radar is removed from the surface low and of no help in determining where the surface center is.

In summary, I suspect more of the center is onshore than indicated by the stated coordinates.

Yes.
Quoting kmanislander:


For $1600.00 and a chance to advance to the next round, how do you expalin the ASCAT pass ?


It's from 11am this morning when the center was at 22.8N 84.1W. It's just the overall circulation.

From the 11am discussion:

THE CENTER OF PAULA IS STILL UNDER THE
CONVECTION AND CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON LA BAJADA RADAR LOCATED IN
WESTERN CUBA.
TropicalStormPaula made landfall near PuertoEsperanza,Cuba

TS.Paula's heading had turned eastward to dueEast
from its previous heading of (7.3degrees east of) EastNorthEast
TS.Paula's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions had increased to ~12.7mph(~20.4km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~8.7mph(~13.9km/h)

Category2
13Oct 06pmGMT - - 21.5n85.7w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - - 989mb -- NHC.Adv.#9A
Category1
13Oct 09pmGMT - - 21.7n85.6w - - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10
14Oct 12amGMT - - 21.8n85.6w - - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10A
14Oct 03amGMT - - 21.9n85.4w - - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv.#11
14Oct 06amGMT - - 22.2n85.2w - - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv.#11A
14Oct 09amGMT - - 22.3n84.9w - - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 999mb -- NHC.Adv.#12
14Oct 12pmGMT - - 22.7n84.5w - - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 999mb -- NHC.Adv.#12A
TropicalStorm
14Oct 03pmGMT - - 22.8n84.1w - - - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - - 1000mb -- NHC.Adv.#13
14Oct 06pmGMT - - 22.8n83.5w - - - 65mph(~104.6km/h) - - 1002mb -- NHC.Adv.#13A

Copy &paste 21.5n85.7w, 21.7n85.6w, 21.8n85.6w, 21.9n85.4w, 22.2n85.2w-22.3n84.9w, 22.3n84.9w-22.7n84.5w, 22.7n84.5w-22.8n84.1w, 22.8n84.1w-22.8n83.5w, cun, mia, nbw, 22.8n83.5w-22.8n79.86w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~16hours from now to reentry into the Atlantic near DosAmigos,Cuba
Though given it's rate of recurvature, TS.Paula is more likely to reenter the Caribbean
north of Isla de Juventad tonight after 09pmGMT but before 12amGMT

^ The easternmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
new video.
Quoting JRRP:


I am ready for Richy and I hope he pays FL a visit because at this point he is our only out of this drought were in.
Might be tough to classify a center via radar soon:



Nevermind...that loop needs updating...
Quoting aspectre:
TropicalStormPaula made landfall near PuertoEsperanza,Cuba

TS.Paula's heading had turned eastward to dueEast
from its previous heading of (7.3degrees east of) EastNorthEast
TS.Paula's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions had increased to ~12.7mph(~km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~8.7mph(~13.9km/h)

Category2
13Oct 06pmGMT - - 21.5n85.7w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - - 989mb -- NHC.Adv.#9A
Category1
13Oct 09pmGMT - - 21.7n85.6w - - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10
14Oct 12amGMT - - 21.8n85.6w - - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10A
14Oct 03amGMT - - 21.9n85.4w - - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv.#11
14Oct 06amGMT - - 22.2n85.2w - - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv.#11A
14Oct 09amGMT - - 22.3n84.9w - - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 999mb -- NHC.Adv.#12
14Oct 12pmGMT - - 22.7n84.5w - - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 999mb -- NHC.Adv.#12A
TropicalStorm
14Oct 03pmGMT - - 22.8n84.1w - - - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - - 1000mb -- NHC.Adv.#13
14Oct 06pmGMT - - 22.8n83.5w - - - 65mph(~104.6km/h) - - 1002mb -- NHC.Adv.#13A

Copy &paste 21.5n85.7w, 21.7n85.6w, 21.8n85.6w, 21.9n85.4w, 22.2n85.2w-22.3n84.9w, 22.3n84.9w-22.7n84.5w, 22.7n84.5w-22.8n84.1w, 22.8n84.1w-22.8n83.5w, cun, cat, 22.8n83.5w- into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~16hours from now to reentry into the Atlantic near DosAmigos, Cuba
Though given it's rate of recurvature, TS.Paula is more likely to reenter the Caribbean north of Isla de Juventad shortly after the next NHC.Advisory, #14


^ The easternmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Arctic sea ice is recovering fast Link

target="_blank">Link




Antarctic ice going haywire:





Quoting kmanislander:


So, as I was saying what we see on the radar is removed from the surface low and of no help in determining where the surface center is.

In summary, I suspect more of the center is onshore than indicated by the stated coordinates.


That could be possible. Decoupling is certainly very common in this situation, and I doubt the center is vertically stacked anymore.

We do have an ESE wind report (albeit 2 hours old) out of Bahia Honda, Cuba, southwest of where the radar center appears to be.

Quoting Bordonaro:

OOPS! Bordonaro is wrong. It is the mid-level center :o)


Which answers half of my question, thanks Bordonaro! Anyone able to clarify what the cut-off height between low level and mid level is? Are we talking 10,000 feet? Higher? Lower?
Quoting CycloneUK:
Arctic sea ice is recovering fast Link

target="_blank">Link




Antarctic ice going haywire:







As expected. It's going to be a cold winter in the polar regions.
I would say Paula at 45-50 mph at 5pm...maybe 60mph...
Quoting KBgetoutthegrill:

Pocket Rocket? You've got to be as old as me to use that reference.

I think he means the former hockey player Rocket Richard(sp)
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Look at the Blob in the South Carribean...

That's when it gets interesting again.
Quoting Levi32:


That could be possible. Decoupling is certainly very common in this situation, and I doubt the center is vertically stacked anymore.

We do have an ESE wind report (albeit 2 hours old) out of Bahia Honda, Cuba, southwest of where the radar center appears to be.



And a SW wind at Grand Cayman which is surprising given the small surface wind field if the center is just on the North Coast.

Anyway we get to see whether it shoots the straits or heads my way. LOL
EXCUSE ME :O) NEW BLOG, NEW BLOG :O)
Quoting Levi32:


As expected. It's going to be a cold winter in the polar regions.


Yep. UK is supposed to get snow next week.
421. xcool
newwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww blog blog