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Paula weakens, heads towards Cuba

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:42 PM GMT on October 13, 2010

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that Hurricane Paula has weakened substantially, and may now be a Category 1 hurricane. The aircraft has made three penetrations of the eye as of 3:30pm EDT, and found top surface winds of 80 mph with their SFMR instrument. Top winds seen at flight level of 10,000 feet were 92 mph, which translates to 83 mph surface winds, using the 10% reduction rule of thumb. Based on these data, it is reasonable to assume Paula is now a Category 1 hurricane with 85 - 90 mph winds, since the aircraft may not have sampled where the peak winds were occurring. Paula is in the Yucatan Channel, the narrow gap between Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and the western tip of Cuba, and has now turned and is headed northeast towards Cuba. A rain band with heavy rains lies over the western tip of Cuba, and Cabo San Antonio on the western tip of Cuba picked up 2.80" of rain so far today from Paula. However, the winds have remained below 15 mph.


Figure 1. Radar image from the Pinar del Rio radar in Cuba at 3:15pm EDT on October 13, 2010, showing the eye of Paula near the western tip of Cuba. A strong spiral band was affecting western Cuba at this time. Image credit: Cuban Institute of Meteorology.

High wind shear due to strong upper-level winds out of the south are starting to tear up the southern portion of Paula, and satellite imagery shows the storm now has a lopsided appearance due to the shear. Low level spiral banding is no longer as impressive, and lines of low-level arc-shaped clouds are racing away from the southern portion of Paula, indicating that the hurricane has ingested dry air that has created strong thunderstorm downdrafts. Ingestion of this dry air is partially responsible for Paula's recent weakening. Water vapor satellite loops confirm the presence of a large amount of dry air on the south, west, and north sides of Paula.

Forecast for Paula
A small storm like Paula may weaken very quickly under the current 30 knots of wind shear and the dry air surrounding it. However, the latest 3pm EDT eye report from the Hurricane Hunters indicated that Paula's eyewall still remained solid, so Paula may be able to hang on for a few more hours before the shear drives dry air into the inner core and destroys the eyewall. Once that occurs, Paula should weaken more rapidly. I'd be surprised if Paula was still a hurricane on Thursday morning, even if it does not hit Cuba. Hurricane force winds extend out just fifteen miles from Paula's center, so only a very small region of coast will receive Paula's strongest winds if landfall occurs. The 11am EDT wind probability product from NHC gives Cabo San Antonio on the western tip of Cuba the highest odds of receiving hurricane force winds of any land area--a 35% chance. Key West is given a 4% chance, and Havana, Cuba, an 8% chance. These probabilities are slightly higher than they were in the 5am advisory, reflecting Paula's ability to hang tough in the face of 30 knots of wind shear. It currently appears that heavy rain will be the major threat from Paula. If Paula stalls over or near western Cuba for several days, the hurricane could easily dump more than ten inches over mountainous regions of the island.

The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for wind shear to rise to a very high 35 - 40 knots on Thursday afternoon, and remain above 25 knots for the rest of the week. This high shear, combined with the expected landfall of the center over mountainous Cuba, should be enough to destroy Paula by Sunday.

The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) are very similar to the previous sets of runs. There are two basic solutions. One solution, championed by the GFDL and GFS ensemble mean, takes Paula just south of the Florida Keys on Friday morning, then into the Bahamas Friday afternoon. The other solution, offered by the rest of the models, is for Paula to move very slowly over western Cuba the next few days, then circle southeastwards into the Caribbean, as a strong high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico intensifies and pushes Paula to the south. This is the more likely scenario, given the current trends in how the models are depicting evolution of the jet stream pattern over the U.S. in the coming days. However, residents of South Florida, the Keys, and the Bahamas should be anticipate the possibility of Paula coming their way as a weak tropical storm on Friday.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS model is predicting the formation of Tropical Storm Richard 5 - 6 days from now, in the southern Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua, near where Paula formed. The GFS has just a strong tropical disturbance forming there.

In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Megi has formed, and is predicted to be a major typhoon that will threaten the northern Philippine Island of Luzon early next week.

Next update
I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Grothar:


If there is intelligent life out there, do you blame them for not contacting us? LOL
Not for a minute (I wouldn't) --Presently,I'm not very proud of us - - I have hope mind you.....LOL --but, present status -- 3 year olds with dangerous toys * sigh*
Quoting oracle28:


is it just me, or is the XTRP pointing at NYC?


You know someone is going to explain to you what an XTRP model is.
I'm stretching your screen...
Quoting oracle28:


is it just me, or is the XTRP pointing at NYC?

It is just you...
the rest of us cant even see the image anymore.
Quoting caneswatch:


I'll just stop quoting you since you won't respond lol


He is rude like that. :)
Quoting Grothar:


Sorry, Canes. Must have missed your post. With all this activity, I can't keep up with posts coming in every 15 minutes, too much for an old guy.


Haha, yeah, I guess so lol
Quoting Grothar:


If there is intelligent life out there, do you blame them for not contacting us? LOL


there watching
if there even there
which is highly likely
considing the size of the universe
and us beings thinking
we be the only ones
is likley not true
Quoting Grothar:


You know someone is going to explain to you what an XTRP model is.


Can't believe you fell for it.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


He is rude like that. :)


I have always known that :) He calls me mean things too.
Quoting Grothar:


You know someone is going to explain to you what an XTRP model is.


Yes, explain that model to me, it rarely curves. It must use a basic linear equation..
Quoting Grothar:


You know someone is going to explain to you what an XTRP model is.

XTRP is not a model....
it's, well, er, YOU know....
It's just One Of Those Things.
Quoting surfmom:
Not for a minute (I wouldn't) --Presently,I'm not very proud of us - - I have hope mind you.....LOL --but, present status -- 3 year olds with dangerous toys * sigh*


Even Stephen Hawking warned us recently about contacting ex-t life. He said "Be careful what you wish for, because you might get it"
Quoting pottery:

XTRP is not a model....
it's, well, er, YOU know....
It's just One Of Those Things.


I have told you not to get too technical on us.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


there watching
if there even there
which is highly likely
considing the size of the universe
and us beings thinking
we be the only ones
is likly not true


Borrowing a concept from Star Trek, If there are people watching us, they know we're not ready!
I somehow get the feeling that everyone here is over the age of Puberty.
How very strange....
BTW...Post 503 will un-stretch the blog for those of you experiencing that.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 85.4W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
Quoting caneswatch:


I have always known that :) He calls me mean things too.


If you went to bed at a decent hour, you wouldn't have to be insulted.
Quoting Grothar:


I have told you not to get too technical on us.

Sorry. I do try to keep it simple.
sigh...
When you watch the vapor loop, you can almost see Paula saying "stop choking me, I do not want to die"
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html
521. IKE
7:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 13
Location: 21.8°N 85.6°W
Max sustained: 85 mph
Moving: NNE at 3 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb

................................

...PAULA WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES WESTERN CUBA...
10:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 13
Location: 21.9°N 85.4°W
Max sustained: 80 mph
Moving: NE at 3 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
BTW...Post 503 will un-stretch the blog for those of you experiencing that.


My blog is not stretched.
523. IKE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0300Z 21.9N 85.4W 70 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 22.3N 84.9W 60 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 22.7N 83.6W 50 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 15/1200Z 22.8N 82.1W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 16/0000Z 22.5N 80.7W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 17/0000Z 22.0N 79.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


there watching
if there even there
which is highly likely
considing the size of the universe
and us beings thinking
we be the only ones
is likley not true

With you, but keep remembering Fermi's Paradox.
yes enough with that tech stuff
Paula stationary.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0300Z 21.9N 85.4W 70 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 22.3N 84.9W 60 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 22.7N 83.6W 50 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 15/1200Z 22.8N 82.1W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 16/0000Z 22.5N 80.7W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 17/0000Z 22.0N 79.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
000
WTNT43 KNHC 140237
TCDAT3
HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
1000 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2010

ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF PAULA HAS GRADUALLY DETERIORATED THIS
EVENING...THE EYE HAS REMAINED FAIRLY WELL INTACT IN CUBAN RADAR
IMAGERY. A BLEND OF DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB
SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 70 KT. THE NEXT
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO REACH PAULA AROUND 0900 UTC.

PAULA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...PRIMARILY
DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR THAT IS ADVECTING
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...THE
EXPECTED LAND INTERACTION WITH WESTERN CUBA WILL LIKELY HASTEN THE
DEMISE OF THE SMALL HURRICANE. PAULA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY AND DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN
A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. PAULA IS FORECAST TO TURN EAST-NORTHEAST...THEN EAST DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IF THE HURRICANE WEAKENS FASTER THAN PREDICTED
BELOW...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD IN
NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THE LATTER SOLUTION IS FAVORED BY THE UKMET...GFS...AND
ECMWF MODELS. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS ADJUSTED TOWARD THAT
SCENARIO...BUT LIES NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0300Z 21.9N 85.4W 70 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 22.3N 84.9W 60 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 22.7N 83.6W 50 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 15/1200Z 22.8N 82.1W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 16/0000Z 22.5N 80.7W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 17/0000Z 22.0N 79.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

529. IKE
HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
1000 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2010

ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF PAULA HAS GRADUALLY DETERIORATED THIS
EVENING...THE EYE HAS REMAINED FAIRLY WELL INTACT IN CUBAN RADAR
IMAGERY. A BLEND OF DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB
SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 70 KT. THE NEXT
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO REACH PAULA AROUND 0900 UTC.

PAULA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...PRIMARILY
DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR THAT IS ADVECTING
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...THE
EXPECTED LAND INTERACTION WITH WESTERN CUBA WILL LIKELY HASTEN THE
DEMISE OF THE SMALL HURRICANE. PAULA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY AND DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN
A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. PAULA IS FORECAST TO TURN EAST-NORTHEAST...THEN EAST DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IF THE HURRICANE WEAKENS FASTER THAN PREDICTED
BELOW...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD IN
NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THE LATTER SOLUTION IS FAVORED BY THE UKMET...GFS...AND
ECMWF MODELS. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS ADJUSTED TOWARD THAT
SCENARIO...BUT LIES NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

Quoting miajrz:

With you, but keep remembering Fermi's Paradox.


Wasn't that a Sport's cologne?
Quoting Grothar:


My blog is not stretched.

Sorry to hear that.
Poor little Paula..she tried so hard.. I give her an "A" for effort.
Quoting Grothar:


Wasn't that a Sport's cologne?

In an away uniform, lol.
534. IKE
Florida is cone-less...


Is it time for Christmas music?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Paula stationary.


Yep.
Not moving much at all.
Quoting miajrz:

In an away uniform, lol.


Great comeback.
18L/TS/P
Quoting oracle28:


is it just me, or is the XTRP pointing at NYC?


Just you, and any other very s-l-o-w people on this blog. (Hey, I promised to buy you a new joke book, if you want; want to take me up on it?) :-)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Is it time for Christmas music?

NO!!!!!
Ike...what kind of job do you have that you can post so much?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Is it time for Christmas music?


No, but hum a few bars of "I'll fly Away" and it should make some of us happy.
Pottery...LOL...I'm getting close!
Quoting Grothar:


If you went to bed at a decent hour, you wouldn't have to be insulted.


Maybe it's because I have days off from college. BTW my friend (and to those of you who don't know, my college doesn't have meteorology), I am switching my major from journalism to psychology.
546. IKE
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Ike...what kind of job do you have that you can post so much?


Self-employed sales. Plus I post year round.

But avoid GW.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Ike...what kind of job do you have that you can post so much?


Must be similar to yours if you are always on when he is?
There is a radio station here, FM100.
They have come up with a format called '100 days of Christmas'.
Been playing 'Frosty' and stuff for weeks....

Good Lord, lend a Hand!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Ike...what kind of job do you have that you can post so much?

A PostMan???
Quoting caneswatch:


Maybe it's because I have days off from college. BTW my friend (and to those of you who don't know, my college doesn't have meteorology), I am switching my major from journalism to psychology.


That is good, Canes. Did your decision to go into psychology have anything to do by being on this blog so long? You could have some good case studies here. LOL
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
BTW...Post 503 will un-stretch the blog for those of you experiencing that.
It depends on the how your browser handles CSS (Cascading Style Sheets). Internet Explorer 6, Netscape, some versions of Safari, some versions of Opera, and some versions of Chrome do not work well on this blog. I've found Firefox works best but it crashes sometimes on Linux most likely because of all the Flash ads on Wunderground.

PDA browsers, phone browsers, and portable device browsers are hit and miss with this blog. Unfortunately, the lite version, iPhone version, and mobile version of Wunderground do not show blog comments.

Could I be spending too much time trying to view this blog on every portable device, browser and computer I have access to?
Quoting pottery:
There is a radio station here, FM100.
They have come up with a format called '100 days of Christmas'.
Been playing 'Frosty' and stuff for weeks....

Good Lord, lend a Hand!


Don't give GeoffWPB any encouragement. We'll be listening to Bing Crosby all night.
Quoting Grothar:


That is good, Canes. Did your decision to go into psychology have anything to do by being on this blog so long? You could have some good case studies here. LOL
I was thinking the same thing...LOL
Blog update. Back later. All in the path of Paula, please stay safe.
Quoting LightningCharmer:
It depends on the how your browser handles CSS (Cascading Style Sheets). Internet Explorer 6, Netscape, some versions of Opera, and some versions of Chrome do not work well on this blog. I've found Firefox works best but it crashes sometimes on Linux most likely because of all the Flash ads on Wunderground.

PDA browsers, phone browsers, and portable device browsers are hit and miss with this blog. Unfortunately, the lite version, iPhone version, and mobile version of Wunderground do not show blog comments.

Could I be spending too much time trying to view this blog on every portable device, browser and computer I have access to?


I have tried Firefox twice and crashed my PC twice. Never again.
556. IKE
Quoting Grothar:


Don't give GeoffWPB any encouragement. We'll be listening to Bing Crosby all night.
Who???
heheheh
Better than The Mighty Sparrow, doing Jingle Bells.
Lol...That's why Ike is so cool!
Quoting Grothar:


That is good, Canes. Did your decision to go into psychology have anything to do by being on this blog so long? You could have some good case studies here. LOL


HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA, that was a good one Grothar. Actually, it's because many people told me I would make a great psychologist, including my aunt, who told me "I bet you will switch your major soon."
Post 503 with a photo from Mars Rovers Exp. Mission will not stretch your screens... I Use Mozilla Firefox 3.6.10; No problems at all...

Quoting LightningCharmer:
It depends on the how your browser handles CSS (Cascading Style Sheets). Internet Explorer 6, Netscape, some versions of Opera, and some versions of Chrome do not work well on this blog. I've found Firefox works best but it crashes sometimes on Linux most likely because of all the Flash ads on Wunderground.

PDA browsers, phone browsers, and portable device browsers are hit and miss with this blog. Unfortunately, the lite version, iPhone version, and mobile version of Wunderground do not show blog comments.

Evening everyone. Look at that, Paula still a Hurricane at 80 mph. Very interesting storm.
Quoting IKE:


Ike, you shouldn't have done it. I cry easily (as tough as I am). And now GeoffWPB is going to go into his archives. You really did it now. Nice song by the way.
Quoting pottery:
Who???
heheheh
Better than The Mighty Sparrow, doing Jingle Bells.


You know he will pull up a "Chipmunks" Christmas song.
The most attacked and hacked Browser on earth is MS Explorer.... Count the number of patches MS had and still, every month has to send down in "updates"....
Quoting Grothar:


I have tried Firefox twice and crashed my PC twice. Never again.
Quoting LightningCharmer:
I was thinking the same thing...LOL
Let's see:

Hurricane Paranoia
Hurricane Psychosis
Cyclone Identity Syndrome
Invest Awareness Denial
Post Traumatic Blog Posting Disorder
Hurricane Season Finality Anxiety
.
.
.

soon comes the time to raise your cup
and say a "thank you".....



2356: One man left. "Will it be his job to turn the lights off?" wonders the BBC's Tim Willcox.

2355: Fifth rescuer lifts off from the bottom of the mine shaft - leaving just one more man at the bottom.
Quoting sunlinepr:
The most attacked Browser on earth is MS Explorer.... Count the number of patches MS had and still, every month has to send down in "updates"....
also known as Inept Explorer...
Quoting caneswatch:


HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA, that was a good one Grothar. Actually, it's because many people told me I would make a great psychologist, including my aunt, who told me "I bet you will switch your major soon."


Don't know you well, but you are always polite and have a good sense of humor. Didn't know you were a college kid. I hope the others know that we were all just teasing with each other. Sometimes they think that all the insults we and others throw are all serious. LOL
Quoting atmoaggie:
also known as Inept Explorer...


It's the only thing I use. Maybe you don't know enough about computers to use it properly. (Gotcha!)
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:

soon comes the time to raise your cup
and say a "thank you".....



2356: One man left. "Will it be his job to turn the lights off?" wonders the BBC's Tim Willcox.

2355: Fifth rescuer lifts off from the bottom of the mine shaft - leaving just one more man at the bottom.
Those 6 rescuers have got real guts. Real Heros!
Quoting Grothar:


Don't know you well, but you are always polite and have a good sense of humor. Didn't know you were a college kid. I hope the others know that we were all just teasing with each other. Sometimes they think that all the insults we and others throw are all serious. LOL


I told you months ago I was going into college! lol They know, and they're all good people too.
Quoting IKE:
The King will always live.
Quoting LightningCharmer:
Let's see:

Hurricane Paranoia
Hurricane Psychosis
Cyclone Identity Syndrome
Invest Awareness Denial
Post Traumatic Blog Posting Disorder
Hurricane Season Finality Anxiety
.
.
.

Can we add:
Blog obsessive-compulsive disorder?
Quoting Grothar:


It's the only thing I use. Maybe you don't know enough about computers to use it properly. (Gotcha!)
lol.
I only build super computers to run weather and surge models...but, hey, that's all Linux, so maybe I don't know.
;-)
(Yes, gotme.)
Quoting caneswatch:


I told you months ago I was going into college! lol They know, and they're all good people too.
Even when it's in writing, the Grothar must be told everything all over again within a week...
576. IKE
Happy belated 70th birthday John Lennon....Link

Wow~

Quoting scott39:
Those 6 rescuers have got real guts. Real Heros!


Aggie Responsible for Drilling Chile Rescue Shaft

Denver Driller Becomes Chile Mine Rescue Hero

Two Good Stories about those that went to help.
Quoting LightningCharmer:


Aggie Responsible for Drilling Chile Rescue Shaft
...of course!
Quoting atmoaggie:
Even when it's in writing, the Grothar must be told everything all over again within a week...

Re ported
De ported
Trans ported
Lovely one...
Quoting atmoaggie:
Even when it's in writing, the Grothar must be told everything all over again within a week...


But, I never get tired of it lol
Quoting atmoaggie:
lol.
I only build super computers to run weather and surge models...but, hey, that's all Linux, so maybe I don't know.
;-)
(Yes, gotme.)


You must make Bob Twilley proud. LOL
There she goes:

Quoting LightningCharmer:


Aggie Responsible for Drilling Chile Rescue Shaft

Denver Driller Becomes Chile Mine Rescue Hero

Two Good Stories about those that went to help.
Awesome! Its really good to see people that are selfliss and make an outcome so amazing.
Quoting reedzone:
Evening everyone. Look at that, Paula still a Hurricane at 80 mph. Very interesting storm.


Aren't all 80 mph storms hurricanes?
Quoting sunlinepr:
Soon Paula will reach The Doors to The End
9,171,225 Views
img src="">



"This is The End, beautiful friend......." Funny how I was just listening to the song.
Quoting caneswatch:


But, I never get tired of it lol


And you are who, again?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Classic!!
OK, who stretched the blog????????????
Not a Hurricane now.
Quoting Grothar:


You must make Bob Twilley proud. LOL
Hah! He doesn't seem to appreciate all that we do and could do in the commercial side of things...not very frequent that we get any work at all from those guys.

But you know what? The machines I am building this week and next can run surge modeling faster than LONI...
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
There she goes:


Looks like a Comet, in colour...
Blowing in the wind, toward Flori... never mind that.
Well, maybe as many people do, you can be using Internet Explorer 8.0 - But there are other FREE browsers available, Like:
* Firefox 3.6.10
* Google Chrome 8.0.552.0 Beta
* Safari 5.0.2
Avant Browser, Flock, K-Meleon, Maxton, Opera (Very good), Sea Monkey
You can download and try any of them as Freeware here

Link
Quoting atmoaggie:
Hah! He doesn't seem to appreciate all that we do and could do in the commercial side of things...not very frequent that we get any work at all from those guys.

But you know what? The machines I am building this week and next can run surge modeling faster than LONI...


Don't let Don hear you say that. He is awfully proud of his accomplishments there.
Classic...
Quoting caneswatch:


"This is The End, beautiful friend......." Funny how I was just listening to the song.
Anyone else having trouble with the blog?
Quoting Grothar:


Don't let Don hear you say that. He is awfully proud of his accomplishments there.
I truly think that LSU fears that we'll somehow compete for the same funding dollars and they'll somehow lose out. When, in actuality, there is no reason that the corridor of LSU to Stennis couldn't be to surge modeling and data, with copious amount of collaboration, what Boulder is to atmospheric science.
Quoting Grothar:
Anyone else having trouble with the blog?
None.
Inept Explorer the cause of your angst.
600. IKE
No problems.
Sheesh, you people have been wavin' bye-bye to Paula since before she was named. Guess what? TropicalCyclones dissipate...eventually.
And ya don't get no brownie points for being the first to say that one is gonna RIP.

HurricanePaula's heading has been (5.7degrees north of) EastNorthEast
H.Paula's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions has been ~5mph(~8km/h)

Category2
13Oct 03amGMT - - 19.9n86.0w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 981mb -- #7
13Oct 06amGMT - - 20.4n86.0w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 981mb -- NHC.Adv.#7A
13Oct 09amGMT - - 20.7n86.0w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#8
13Oct 12pmGMT - - 21.3n85.9w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#8A
13Oct 03pmGMT - - 21.3n85.8w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#9
13Oct 06pmGMT - - 21.5n85.7w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 989mb -- NHC.Adv.#9A
Category1
13Oct 09pmGMT - - 21.7n85.6w - - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10
14Oct 12amGMT - - 21.8n85.6w - - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10A
14Oct 03amGMT - - 21.9n85.4w - - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv.#11

Copy &paste 19.9n86.0w, 20.4n86.0w, 20.7n86.0w, 21.3n85.9w, 21.3n85.8w-21.5n85.7w, 21.5n85.7w-21.7n85.6w, 21.7n85.6w-21.8n85.6w, 21.8n85.6w-21.9n85.4w, cun, hav, nbw, 21.9n85.4w-22.45n84.29w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~16hours from now to Dimas,Cuba

^ The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
Sorry it's so behind, but I'd like to tell Lightning Charmer that choosing "Go to the regular site" on the iphone app will get you the blog comments. (I rejoice, b/c last year this crashed my phone.)
Quoting sunlinepr:
Classic...


A great classic. I turned it back on cause you mentioned it. I haven't listened to the song in a while even though I have it on my iPod.
Quoting atmoaggie:
I truly think that LSU fears that we'll somehow compete for the same funding dollars and they'll somehow lose out. When, in actuality, there is no reason that the corridor of LSU to Stennis couldn't be to surge modeling and data, with copious amount of collaboration, what Boulder is to atmospheric science.


The NSF has poured a lot of money to them over the years. You need a good "Liu" on your side. He can be very convincing.
Quoting atmoaggie:
None.
Inept Explorer the cause of your angst.


Haven't had angst since I left Germany.
Quoting Grothar:


Haven't had angst since I left Germany.
Is that in Canada?
607. IKE
Dedicated to Paula....Link

608. 7544
paula idk the eye is still intact 80mph can might try to pull a surpise at dmax even with the shear so no rip yet here next
Sure we want no brownies, we want it to dissipate doing any harm and without loosing lives...
Quoting aspectre:
Sheesh, you people have been wavin' bye-bye to Paula since before she was named.
Guess what? TropicalCyclones dissipate...eventually. And ya don't get no brownie points for being the first to say that one is gonna RIP.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Is that in Canada?


You don't forget a darn thing, do you? (small chuckle)
Quoting Grothar:


The NSF has poured a lot of money to them over the years. You need a good "Liu" on your side. He can be very convincing.
Just seems odd that we get funding and work with NOAA, FEMA, State of Mississippi, the Navy, NASA, U South Alabama, etc. but never seem to have any opportunities whatsoever in our own state. Heck, they even refuse to write any letters of support for NASA or NOAA RFPs for developing operational tools that would be useful for LA.
Quoting aspectre:
Sheesh, you people have been wavin' bye-bye to Paula since before she was named. Guess what? TropicalCyclones dissipate...eventually.
And ya don't get no brownie points for being the first to say that one is gonna RIP.


Can we get brownies instead?

She was not much at her apex. To RIP her is not much difference.
Sorry, posted a working copy in comment601 instead of the final copy.
It's been corrected with:
HurricanePaula's heading has been (5.7degrees north of) EastNorthEast
and
Copy &paste 19.9n86.0w, 20.4n86.0w, 20.7n86.0w, 21.3n85.9w, 21.3n85.8w-21.5n85.7w, 21.5n85.7w-21.7n85.6w, 21.7n85.6w-21.8n85.6w, 21.8n85.6w-21.9n85.4w, cun, hav, nbw, 21.9n85.4w-22.45n84.29w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Is that in Canada?

Where is Canada?

All right, it's late... tell me in the morning.
see you all tomorrow.
615. xcool
getting ready for cold november in southeast ..
Riders on the storm; When the music's over
Quoting caneswatch:


A great classic. I turned it back on cause you mentioned it. I haven't listened to the song in a while even though I have it on my iPod.
getting ready for a wet&cold winter here in northern cali, but nobody seems to agree with me.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Just seems odd that we get funding and work with NOAA, FEMA, State of Mississippi, the Navy, NASA, U South Alabama, etc. but never seem to have any opportunities whatsoever in our own state. Heck, they even refuse to write any letters of support for NASA or NOAA RFPs for developing operational tools that would be useful for LA.


Tell them to get in good with Liz Valenti and her crowd. Just a hint. What about URS?
Quoting Grothar:


Tell them to get in good with Liz Valenti and her crowd. Just a hint. What about URS?
Hey now...
She doesn't like to be called that...
DownCasters 15 WishCasters 1 this year i think my score is correct......LOL
Quoting miajrz:
Sorry it's so behind, but I'd like to tell Lightning Charmer that choosing "Go to the regular site" on the iphone app will get you the blog comments. (I rejoice, b/c last year this crashed my phone.)
You're correct but it takes forever to refresh. It would be nice if Wunderground would make a "lite" version with comments, and they could still have ads for revenue but not all the flashy megabyte hungry ones.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Riders on the storm; When the music is over


Riders on the Storm, a personal favorite. So is Light My Fire, People Are Strange, and End of the Night.
Quoting LightningCharmer:
You're correct but it takes forever to refresh. It would be nice if Wunderground would make a "lite" version with comments, and they could still have ads for revenue but not all the flashy megabyte hungry ones.
I load the full page on my boysenberry. Works ok.

But, is only swift with scripts off in the browser, but no quote or modify that way.
Quoting caneswatch:


Riders on the Storm, a personal favorite. So is Light My Fire, People Are Strange, and End of the Night.
Spanish Caravan
Quoting xcool:
getting ready for cold november in southeast ..


As far down as so. Fla.?
Quoting atmoaggie:
Just seems odd that we get funding and work with NOAA, FEMA, State of Mississippi, the Navy, NASA, U South Alabama, etc. but never seem to have any opportunities whatsoever in our own state. Heck, they even refuse to write any letters of support for NASA or NOAA RFPs for developing operational tools that would be useful for LA.


Hate to say it, but it is politics. They are more giving to academia than private developers. More publicity and less public scrutiny, especially with those large amounts on the table. Look how at the relationship of Katz and Liu on how they did it for the Tera-Grid project, with which I am sure you are familiar. And don't you dare ask you I am.
Quoting Grothar:


Hate to say it, but it is politics. They are more giving to academia than private developers. More publicity and less public scrutiny, especially with those large amounts on the table. Look how at the relationship of Katz and Liu on how they did it for the Tera-Grid project, with which I am sure you are familiar. And don't you dare ask you I am.


Can I tell who you really are?
Quoting atmoaggie:
Hey now...
She doesn't like to be called that...


Only her friends can call her that. Ha. Won't allow anyone in public to say it. Reminds her of Liz Taylor, as if it could hurt. LOL
Quoting NRAamy:
I've got your angst right here, Groth.....


Geez, I thought I had lost it again. Thanks Amy.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Can I tell who you really are?


You do and you will sing your last Christmas Carrol.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Spanish Caravan


My Eyes Have Seen You, I Can't See Your Face in My Mind.
Quoting LightningCharmer:
You're correct but it takes forever to refresh. It would be nice if Wunderground would make a "lite" version with comments, and they could still have ads for revenue but not all the flashy megabyte hungry ones.

Not sure what to say. Always thought it was b/c my phone wasn't the latest. Then thought it was the wonderful graphics-heavy things people here post which are better than a thousand words. But, it's the ads?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:




How can anybody get ever get mad at someone so twisted. Where do you find these???
637. xcool
GeoffreyWPB yep
Quoting xcool:
GeoffreyWPB yep


I hope so Scott. I miss those $60 electric bills!
Quoting Grothar:


How can anybody get ever get mad at someone so twisted. Where do you find these???


Go look at #480 on my Blog... posted by SWMBO.
Quoting TampaSpin:
DownCasters 15 WishCasters 1 this year i think my score is correct......LOL


Can you stay on topic, please. You do this all the time.
Quoting IKE:
Dedicated to Paula....Link

She may be coming around again. Sort of like those miners in Chili.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Go look at #480 on my Blog... posted by SWMBO.


Apple pie for me this holiday!!!!! Thanks alot Orca. Just woke up the house laughing. I'd roll on the floor, but no one to pick me up.
645. xcool
you need to move to slidell la Temp

59.3°F
Good news around, Paula is no big threat for the moment...
Good news, Everyone is happy with Chile's Miners Rescue....
Meanwhile, here in PR..... comment Removed ....
Quoting Orcasystems:


You put miners in your Chili?
Your as bad as Tim making White Chili.

Chile* You're*
Quoting miajrz:

Not sure what to say. Always thought it was b/c my phone wasn't the latest. Then thought it was the wonderful graphics-heavy things people here post which are better than a thousand words. But, it's the ads?
There are complex scripts that go along with the ads which are used for tracking purposes for marketing. You are correct in that many bloggers load very large images, some animated. I've just noticed the page load times are slow regardless of the number of images, yet the lite, mobile and iPhone versions of Wunderground load rather quickly. atmoaggie mentioned that he "turns off" or disables scripts on his "boysenberry," and that results in faster loads for him.

Don't get me wrong; it works but there's much room for improvement. I use wunderground all the time on mobile devices, and have for years just not always this blog.
Quoting Grothar:


Can you stay on topic, please. You do this all the time.


Good nite to you too! Good nite everyone!
she is starting a re-fire on the last frame quickly in the eyewall
Link
Quoting TampaSpin:


Good nite to you too! Good nite everyone!


See ya T.
Quoting winter123:

Chile* You're*


Ok, well at least mine had humour :)

BTW, "Your" was correct :P
The Hurricane Warning and Tropical Storm watch should be dropped within the next two updates.
minors?
Quoting winter123:

Chile* You're*
Your blog is the bomb!(best!)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Ok, well at least mine had humour :)

BTW, "Your" was correct :P
Good night TS. Nolan Ryan sends his regards.
659. JLPR2
Paula is fighting to stay with us a little longer.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
The Hurricane Warning and Tropical Storm watch should be dropped within the next two updates.


Think Paula will do a loop in the Carribean and start all over again. Come on Geoff, give us something to hope for. We can't keeping blogging about nothing. After all, this is a weather blog, not "Does WU Have Talent"
Poor Paula. She is trying for one last burst. Did they cancel Recon?
Quoting swflurker:
Your blog is the bomb!


Umm is that good?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Here's something to hope for Grothar:



Thanks, Geoff, this is the beginning of the movie (One of my favorites from my youth, my first yourth,that is), have the last scene with Rosemary Clooney?
core actually looking better compared to an hour ago........

Recon wasn't scheduled for tonight. Maybe 14th at 12Z, that's the next task.
Should be under wu hof!
Quoting Orcasystems:


Umm is that good?
Just when Paula was written off by many, has put on a pretty nice convective burst to stay alive...... for now!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


The good old days. Thanks. Don't know how you find these.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Geoff, since you were a nice guy and posted these for us, I got something for you.
Quoting Grothar:


Apple pie for me this holiday!!!!! Thanks alot Orca. Just woke up the house laughing. I'd roll on the floor, but no one to pick me up.
I've learned to stay away from the comments section of Orca's blog... it can be hazardous 2 ur health.... lol
I don't think Paula's done quite yet. If she stays strong enough to ride along the Cuban coast rather than the centre going across the SW mountains, I think the current forecast of no demise before Friday will likely pan out. I'm very interested to see if we will see that Sward move towards the Cuban coast, but I think Levi's thinking about Paula going further north than the concensus implies is relatively plausible.
674. JLPR2
Quoting thelmores:
core actually looking better compared to an hour ago........



At 1am the eye looked great, not so much right now. XD
Still fairly intact, per the la bajada radar, though.

Forget the white Christmas baby we are talking mocha now.
Storm starting to make Marco look big.
Poll: Paula's future

A) Die as soon as it touches cuba
B) Loop back into the carribean and re-intensify
C) Die slowly over cuba
D) "CMC doomcast" - Intensify to cat 5 and head straight for New Orleans or another heavily populated area
E) Other (explain)

Peculiar Paula, persistent, petite, putzing patiently, puffing profusely,pint-sized, pffft. Paula!
I say e - drift along the N Cuban coast, across the Bahamas, and out to sea, based on the current WV imagery which suggests that Paula will stay far enough N to get shoved east ahead of the trough that's dropping down pretty rapidly across the central US right now...
Quoting gordydunnot:
Storm starting to make Marco look big.


lol
Quoting BahaHurican:
I say e - drift along the N Cuban coast, across the Bahamas, and out to sea, based on the current WV imagery which suggests that Paula will stay far enough N to get shoved east ahead of the trough that's dropping down pretty rapidly across the central US right now...


Agreed completely.
This goes out to Bordonaro for post #679Link
Quoting gordydunnot:
This goes out to Bordonaro for post #679Link

No, I work an 8 hr a day job and blog on Weather Underground quite a bit. Oh, yeah, I eat 3 times a day and sleep about 7 hrs a night. I don't have too much time on my hands :O)
dam Bordo that stung, and right home to the point. Have a nice day tomorrow sorry for kidding around as in your post or was that some sophisticated alliteration i didn't understand.
Quoting gordydunnot:
dam Bordo that stung, and right home to the point. Have a nice day tomorrow sorry for kidding around as in your post or was that some sophisticated alliteration i didn't understand.

Lighten up it is all good, it was meant as a dry joke :oP
Quoting gordydunnot:
dam Bordo that stung, and right home to the point. Have a nice day tomorrow sorry for kidding around as in your post or was that some sophisticated alliteration i didn't understand.

Poofing Paula
Maybe one Bud to many sorry Bord, I know your are one of the good guys on this blog. I also like your weather out looks as opposed to many who can't seem to remember all the times the are wrong.Seriously have a good night and thank God for all the safe return of the Chilean miners and their rescuers. Peace out ain't afraid of no Paula!! Signed, Ghost Busters.
Quoting Bordonaro:
Peculiar Paula, persistent, petite, putzing patiently, puffing profusely,pint-sized, pffft. Paula!

Nice Post!!!
Running on pure "I think I can..."
HurricanePaula's heading turned northward to (9.3degrees east of) NorthNorthEast
from its previous heading of (5.7degrees north of) EastNorthEast
H.Paula's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions increased to ~8mph(~12.9km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~5mph(~8km/h)

Category2
13Oct 06amGMT - - 20.4n86.0w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 981mb -- NHC.Adv.#7A
13Oct 09amGMT - - 20.7n86.0w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#8
13Oct 12pmGMT - - 21.3n85.9w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#8A
13Oct 03pmGMT - - 21.3n85.8w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#9
13Oct 06pmGMT - - 21.5n85.7w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 989mb -- NHC.Adv.#9A
Category1
13Oct 09pmGMT - - 21.7n85.6w - - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10
14Oct 12amGMT - - 21.8n85.6w - - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10A
14Oct 03amGMT - - 21.9n85.4w - - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv.#11
14Oct 06amGMT - - 22.2n85.2w - - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv.#11A

Copy &paste 20.4n86.0w, 20.7n86.0w, 21.3n85.9w, 21.3n85.8w, 21.5n85.7w-21.7n85.6w, 21.7n85.6w-21.8n85.6w, 21.8n85.6w-21.9n85.4w, 21.9n85.4w-22.2n85.2w, cun, pbi, mbj, 22.2n85.2w-26.63n82.13w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~44hours from now to PineIslandCenter,Florida

^ The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Meanwhile, NHC is wishcasting "...EYE OF PAULA NEARING WESTERN TIP OF CUBA..." when H.Paula would hafta make a ~100degree turn to the SouthSouthEast for its center to hit the western tip.
Interesting! Now all of the models forcast Paula to recurve. The question is will she survive the strong shear and passage over land and make it back over water alive?
Quoting aspectre:
Running on pure "I think I can..."
HurricanePaula's heading turned northward to (9.3degrees east of) NorthNorthEast
from its previous heading of (5.7degrees north of) EastNorthEast
H.Paula's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions increased to ~8mph(~12.9km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~5mph(~8km/h)

Category2
13Oct 06amGMT - - 20.4n86.0w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 981mb -- NHC.Adv.#7A
13Oct 09amGMT - - 20.7n86.0w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#8
13Oct 12pmGMT - - 21.3n85.9w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#8A
13Oct 03pmGMT - - 21.3n85.8w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#9
13Oct 06pmGMT - - 21.5n85.7w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 989mb -- NHC.Adv.#9A
Category1
13Oct 09pmGMT - - 21.7n85.6w - - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10
14Oct 12amGMT - - 21.8n85.6w - - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10A
14Oct 03amGMT - - 21.9n85.4w - - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv.#11
14Oct 06amGMT - - 22.2n85.2w - - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - 993mb - - mb -- NHC.Adv.#11A

Copy &paste 20.4n86.0w, 20.7n86.0w, 21.3n85.9w, 21.3n85.8w, 21.5n85.7w-21.7n85.6w, 21.7n85.6w-21.8n85.6w, 21.8n85.6w-21.9n85.4w, 21.9n85.4w-22.2n85.2w, cun, pbi, mbj, 22.2n85.2w-26.63n82.13w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~44hours from now to PineIslandCenter,Florida

^ The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Meanwhile, NHC is wishcasting "...EYE OF PAULA NEARING WESTERN TIP OF CUBA..." when H.Paula would hafta make a ~100degrees turn to the SouthSouthEast for its center to hit the western tip.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
DEPRESSION BOB03-2010
08:30 AM IST October 14 2010
==================================

SUBJECT: Depression Over Bay Of Bengal

At 3:00 AM UTC, Depression BOB03-2010 over east central and adjoining northwest and west central Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lays centered near 18.0N 88.5E, or about 550 kms east of Visakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh), 430 kms southeast of Gopalpur (Orissa) and 400 kms south-southeast of Digha (West Bengal).

The current environmental condition and numerical weather prediction models suggest that the system would intensify further into a deep depression and move west-northwestward and cross Orissa coast between Gopalpur and Paradip by Friday evening.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with a central pressure of 998 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the system's center.

Satellite imagery indicates shear pattern. The Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal to the north of 13.5N and west of 91.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -70C.

Low to moderate vertical wind shear of horizontal wind prevails over the region. There is negative 24 hour tendency of vertical wind shear to the north of the system. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 22.0N. As a result easterly/east southeasterly wind of about 30 knots prevail on the region at 200 HPA. The relative vorticity at 850 HPA level and upper level divergence around the system center is also favorable for intensification. Sea surface temperature (28-32C), and the ocean heat content over central Bay of Bengal are favorable for intensification. However, Ocean Heat Content is less and not favorable over north Bay of Bengal. Similarly the ocean heat content is relatively less over the sea area adjoining south Orissa and north Andhra Pradesh coast.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL STORM MEGI (T1013)
15:00 PM JST October 14 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Megi (994 hPa) located at 12.6N 139.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
=================
140 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
100 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 14.5N 136.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 16.3N 132.1E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
72 HRS: 17.5N 128.2E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
Someone went "H" happy on this weather map :OP


And Poofy Paula putzing NE at 3 MPH


The ECMWF has remnants of Paula in the Bahamas and then incorporated in the Nor'easter planned for this weekend to crush Down East.
000
WTNT33 KNHC 140857
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
400 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2010

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS PAULA A LITTLE WEAKER...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 84.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...60 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM WSW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AND EAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...
PAULA WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
CENTER MOVES OVER CUBA AND ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS...AND PAULA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY.

PAULA REMAINS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE SPREADING ACROSS EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS LATE TODAY.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
WTNT43 KNHC 140859
TCDAT3
HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
400 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2010

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF PAULA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING AS THE HURRICANE IS ENCOUNTERING 30 KT OF
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER...RADAR DATA FROM CUBA
SHOWS THAT THE EYE AND EYEWALL ARE STILL INTACT FOR NOW. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT JUST REPORTED THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 999 MB...WITH 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 72
KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 65 KT.

A BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS
TRYING TO STEER PAULA IN A GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.
HOWEVER...A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS BLOCKING
THIS MOVEMENT WITH THE RESULT BEING A SLOW INITIAL MOTION OF 050/4.
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
FLOW TO INCREASE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE LOW LEVELS
NORTH AND WEST OF PAULA. THIS EVOLUTION IS LIKELY TO CAUSE PAULA
TO SHEAR APART...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANTS TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD
AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWESTWARD. WHILE THE GUIDANCE AGREES WITH
THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD ON WHEN AND WHERE THIS
DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR. THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST...WHILE THE
GFDL IS THE FARTHEST EAST. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES BETWEEN
THESE EXTREMES CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS...AND IS
ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST

SHEAR...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...AND LAND INTERACTION SHOULD CAUSE
PAULA TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HR. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 36 HR...AND TO A REMNANT LOW
BY 48 HR. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN
FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST ONCE IT SHEARS APART.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0900Z 22.3N 84.9W 65 KT
12HR VT 14/1800Z 22.6N 84.0W 60 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 15/0600Z 22.9N 82.5W 45 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 15/1800Z 22.9N 81.1W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 16/0600Z 22.3N 80.1W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 17/0600Z 21.5N 79.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Have we watched this yet?

Developing storm at the pacific
I don't see Paula staying over Cuba so long I think she'll re-emerge into the Caribbean. However conditions aren't really Ideal there either If the shear and dry air can get out by sun-mon she might survive to make another go
Good morning, everyone. A beautiful 65 degrees here.
morning
low pressure northwest of panama. the seedling for the development of Richard, in a few days time
GFS starts developing another Caribbean system in a reasonable timeframe (monday)

By Wednesday, its a full fledged hurricane.


So does the NOGAPS
Somewhere I was reading the possibility of Richard in four to five days.
What a difference a day year makes:

According to HAMweather, over the past four days, the CONUS has seen 1,132 record highs (or high minimums), and just 36 record lows (or low maximums). By comparison, last year many of the areas now seeing those record highs were instead digging out from under various record snow events, and/or just getting ready for others.
""
HurricanePaula's heading turned eastward to (2.3degrees east of) EastNorthEast
from its previous heading of (9.3degrees east of) NorthNorthEast
H.Paula's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions decreased to ~6.7mph(~10.7km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~8mph(~12.9km/h)

Category2
13Oct 09amGMT - - 20.7n86.0w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#8
13Oct 12pmGMT - - 21.3n85.9w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#8A
13Oct 03pmGMT - - 21.3n85.8w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#9
13Oct 06pmGMT - - 21.5n85.7w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 989mb -- NHC.Adv.9A
Category1
13Oct 09pmGMT - - 21.7n85.6w - - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10
14Oct 12amGMT - - 21.8n85.6w - - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10A
14Oct 03amGMT - - 21.9n85.4w - - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv.#11
14Oct 06amGMT - - 22.2n85.2w - - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv.#11A
14Oct 09amGMT - - 22.3n84.9w - - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - 999mb -- NHC.Adv.#12

Copy &paste 20.7n86.0w, 21.3n85.9w, 21.3n85.8w, 21.5n85.7w, 21.7n85.6w-21.8n85.6w, 21.8n85.6w-21.9n85.4w, 21.9n85.4w-22.2n85.2w, 22.2n85.2w-22.3n84.9w, cun, hav, 22.3n84.9w-22.531n84.205w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~5hours from now to SanRamon,Cuba

^ The easternmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
Quoting winter123:
Poll: Paula's future

A) Die as soon as it touches cuba
B) Loop back into the carribean and re-intensify
C) Die slowly over cuba
D) "CMC doomcast" - Intensify to cat 5 and head straight for New Orleans or another heavily populated area
E) Other (explain)

F. Find Osama Bin Laden and end the war on terror!
Quoting winter123:Poll: Paula's futureA) Die as soon as it touches cubaB) Loop back into the carribean and re-intensifyC) Die slowly over cubaD) "CMC doomcast" - Intensify to cat 5 and head straight for New Orleans or another heavily populated areaE) Other (explain)


I say BBBBBBB LOL
I'd choose F, but it's only a dream!!!
sorry I ment to say CCCCCCCCC LOL

and no BBBBBBBB
Quoting Neapolitan:
What a difference a day year makes:

According to HAMweather, over the past four days, the CONUS has seen 1,132 record highs (or high minimums), and just 36 record lows (or low maximums). By comparison, last year many of the areas now seeing those record highs were instead digging out from under various record snow events, and/or just getting ready for others.
Stop already...LOL...You may get the wooly-worms, peach fuzz, onions skins, all the other weather lore posts about the pending winter! Good Morning!


Paula's rain is here or on the way south Florida.

National Weather Service Enhanced Radar Image Loop - Key West, FL Radar



718. IKE
4:00 AM CDT Thu Oct 14
Location: 22.3°N 84.9°W
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: NE at 5 mph
Min pressure: 999 mb
.....................................

...PAULA HUGGING THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA...FORECAST TO WEAKEN...
7:00 AM CDT Thu Oct 14
Location: 22.7°N 84.5°W
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: NE at 5 mph
Min pressure: 999 mb
.............................................


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST. PAULA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AND EAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...
PAULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OR OVER WESTERN
CUBA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A VERY SMALL AREA NEAR THE
CENTER. PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. PAULA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
STORM LATER TODAY.

PAULA REMAINS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM. THE WEATHER
STATION LOCATED IN THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED A 60
MPH...97 KM/HR WIND GUST.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
Paula is starting to make that E turn.

""

On that GFS run; post 704:

Luckily, it takes it out & sweeps it off to the northeast in the later frames. Cuba would take a hit if this would materialize & perhaps Bermuda way down the road.

GFS 06Z 384 Hour Loop
Mid Level Shear (9:00Z)
latest vortex message shows Paula is still producing sustained surface winds close to minimal hurricane strength.


A. Time of Center Fix: 14th day of the month at 11:09:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°39'N 84°30'W (22.65N 84.5W)
B. Center Fix Location: 54 miles (87 km) to the WNW (287°) from Pinar del Río, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,079m (10,102ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 61kts (~ 70.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the WSW/W (258°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 325° at 46kts (From the NW at ~ 52.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the W (263°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,061m (10,043ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,032m (9,948ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 6°C (43°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 72kts (~ 82.9mph) in the south quadrant at 8:50:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 50kts (~ 57.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 11:12:20Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 13°C (55°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the WSW (238°) from the flight level center
Quoting cat5hurricane:
On that GFS run; post 704:

Luckily, it takes it out & sweeps it off to the northeast in the later frames. Cuba would take a hit if this would materialize & perhaps Bermuda way down the road.


I know that is still way out there... but doesn't it seem the US has a force field in place and nothing is getting through this season lol Talk about being lucky once again if that panned out. You would expect closer to home development in October is a shoe in for a direct hit in the NE GOM.
724. IKE
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg)...weakening system.
725. IKE
Quoting robert88:


I know that is still way out there... but doesn't it seem the US has a force field in place and nothing is getting through this season lol Talk about being lucky once again if that panned out. You would expect closer to home development in October is a shoe in for a direct hit in the NE GOM.


200mb winds at 180 hours...anything heading into the GOM would get sheared to death...

wel robert88 if it start to move eastward now then it would likely not stay on cuba long and reapair in the Caribbean sea between the Isle of pine and Cuba and loop around earler and maybe not die out and maybe regain it's TS staus
Morning/evening.

I see the turn toward the east in the water vapor, but the southern hook in the wondermap seems very off.

When did we start getting Cuban radar? This is the first time I have noticed it. How cool!
Quoting IKE:
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg)...weakening system.


That is up 6mb from the last vortex message.
P.S.
THAT is impressive Shear.
Quoting robert88:


I know that is still way out there... but doesn't it seem the US has a force field in place and nothing is getting through this season lol Talk about being lucky once again if that panned out. You would expect closer to home development in October is a shoe in for a direct hit in the NE GOM.

Isn't that the truth. How lucky the CONUS has been for the most part (with exception of Nicole & the deluge she left over NC). Any other year & it could have been ugly. I still just remember that pattern that shaped up almost a month ago...protected the GOM like a shield.

I'd like to wait & see if this new storm even develops before projecting on where it could go & what it can do. But the pattern this year sure favored the US mainland. Bottom line.
731. HCW
Quoting IKE:


200mb winds at 180 hours...anything heading into the GOM would get sheared to death...


I see that. Whether it was the dry air or the upper level winds, the shield remains up in full force.
HurricanePaula's heading turned northward to (2.2degrees east of) NorthEast
from its previous heading of (2.3degrees east of) EastNorthEast
H.Paula's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions creased to ~12.7mph(~20.4km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~6.7mph(~10.7km/h)
Category2
13Oct 12pmGMT - - 21.3n85.9w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#8A
13Oct 03pmGMT - - 21.3n85.8w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#9
13Oct 06pmGMT - - 21.5n85.7w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 989mb -- NHC.Adv.#9A
Category1
13Oct 09pmGMT - - 21.7n85.6w - - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10
14Oct 12amGMT - - 21.8n85.6w - - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10A
14Oct 03amGMT - - 21.9n85.4w - - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv.#11
14Oct 06amGMT - - 22.2n85.2w - - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv.#11A
14Oct 09amGMT - - 22.3n84.9w - - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - 999mb -- NHC.Adv.#12
14Oct 12pmGMT - - 22.7n84.5w - - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - 999mb -- NHC.Adv.#12A

Copy &paste 21.3n85.9w, 21.3n85.8w, 21.5n85.7w, 21.7n85.6w, 21.8n85.6w-21.9n85.4w, 21.9n85.4w-22.2n85.2w, 22.2n85.2w-22.3n84.9w, 22.3n84.9w-22.7n84.5w, cun, cat, 22.7n84.5w-25.8n81.3w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~23hours from now to Chokoloskee,Florida

^ The easternmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
Good Morning...
Quoting cat5hurricane:


so whatcha think cat5? think this thing has a shot of hanging on and hitting miami in any way?
Good Morning!

Are the latest models picking up anything after Paula?
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:


so whatcha think cat5? think this thing has a shot of hanging on and hitting miami in any way?

Totally. Miami's definitely gonna feel the full wrath of this thing later...in the form of a couple raindrops or two :)
Paula's eye can just be made out on long-range radar out of Key West. I, for one, am happy for today's rain, and hope it keeps coming.
742. IKE
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 14th day of the month at 12:24Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2010
Storm Name: Paula (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 23
A. Time of Center Fix: 14th day of the month at 12:06:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°45'N 84°26'W (22.75N 84.4333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 53 miles (85 km) to the WNW (295°) from Pinar del Río, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,079m (10,102ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the WSW (244°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 315° at 39kts (From the NW at ~ 44.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the WSW (244°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1002mb (29.59 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,006m (9,862ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 72kts (~ 82.9mph) in the south quadrant at 8:50:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 45kts (~ 51.8mph) in the west quadrant at 12:11:10Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 700mb
Quoting CybrTeddy:
GFS starts developing another Caribbean system in a reasonable timeframe (monday)

By Wednesday, its a full fledged hurricane.


So does the NOGAPS


so i read cat 5's notice of huge shear in 180 hrs (5 days) but if this storm is predicted to be a full hurricane by next wednesday that puts it at 240 hrs and still in the central western caribbean. what does the shear look like across the GOM when and if the path takes Richard north?
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:


so whatcha think cat5? think this thing has a shot of hanging on and hitting miami in any way?

Well, yes, according to the following two comments posted yesterday afternoon:
Quoting AVeryReasonableAndWellKnownForumMemberWhoNeverFallsIntoHyperbole:
Wow, the unthinkable is happening. I believe now that Paula may make it to South Florida as a Category 1 Storm. So much for no landfalls this year. Watches should go up soon. The BAMS have shifted north, FL Keys to Miami, look out and start your preparations NOW!
Quoting AVeryReasonableAndWellKnownForumMemberWhoNeverFallsIntoHyperbole:
Don't listen to some people on here, start your preparations for Paula if you live in Extreme South Florida, (Keys to Miami) Paula is disobeying the forecast and Mother Nature is doing what it wants to do. We may have a Category 1 landfall. Even if it doesn't, you need to make preparations NOW. Start buying some supplies, don't wait till the last minute. 30 knots of shear will not break down the storm, especially if Paula is going to move in the same direction, could cause her to maintain her strength.
;-)
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Totally. Miami's definitely gonna feel the full wrath of this thing later...in the form of a couple raindrops or two :)



lol....paula sure is vicious lol
Quoting Neapolitan:
Paula's eye can just be made out on long-range radar out of Key West. I, for one, am happy for today's rain, and hope it keeps coming.

You guys sure need it in the worst of ways. I couldn't believe the deficits on the precipitation map of the previous 14 days.
747. IKE
paula is not moving east.....
is all of the sheared moisture bringing energy to s.fla? does it have punch to it enough to form tornadoes, microbursts, etc?
Paula has wobbled back more to the NE now. Maybe she will stay offshore and go N of Cuba.

""
miami is below the 40 kt stream but....will she hold together?

Link

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

it looks like she is getting more support on her lower quads, or is she getting stretched out?

it looks like some venting and here is the vorticity


Link

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor4.html
JB this morn.

THURSDAY 7 AM
THE WORST SEASON EVER FOR SELECTIVE VERIFICATION

If anything, the standards I am adopting, though revealing weaknesses in my ideas when they are not right, are being shown as ones that the field has to adopt if we want to upgrade the level of forecasting and communication on tropical cyclones. The police have to be policed, in other words, and Paula is a prime example.

I can't figure this out. Why not say what it is? It's one thing to argue about track, which by the way I still think will find what is left of this south of Cuba, this weekend, but that is an argument that people of good will can engage in. But to not upgrade in the face of a system that should have had recons in 24-36 hours before, and then now, not have this downgraded BUT FORECAST IT TO BECOME WHAT IT ALREADY IS... A TROPICAL STORM, is incredible. Pressure at 997 mb and 55kt surface winds reported in an unwinding storm mean it's not only a tropical storm, but has been in that state for several hours beforehand. Why not call it what it is?

I spoke with a more senior member of the meteorological community last night, someone who runs in circles with folks older than I, and he told me that he says that older hurricane forecasters have never seen it this bad. Even Nicole, just simply declaring it dead when one could see the system still around and then the pressure fall center and wind increase center come right up over the Outer Banks, with a pressure LOWER than what this is now and winds comparable to it, was arguable. But think about what we have here. A failure to downgrade what should be... though I am sure they will at any moment, but downgrading the very system that did impact the U.S. and contribute to the major flooding in the East.

It's strange because there is no rhyme or reason. It's almost as if by causing confusion, it leads to people having to pay attention to see what the next move will be. I don't think there is any malicious intent... I really don't, I just think there is a lack of a standard on each of these. To call Ike a non-major was absurd, and dropping the category of a major so 110 mph is included does not solve the problem of the overall power of the storm. Why not go to my idea that incorporates pressure? Perhaps 'cause they did not think of it. Or the naming standard... both putting it on, or taking it off. Closed rotary circulation, winds of gale force in one quad... name it, then keep the name on till it's long gone.

Perhaps this is not the peak... the peak may have been Earl and Igor, both severely underestimated in Canada (Earl was a hurricane) because of the lack of respect for what the very low pressures meant when a storm comes close to the coast and the frictional aspects cause a tightening so the real wind shows up. The 947 mb 12-mile-wide eye Alex, you don't think there were 120 mb winds at landfall? What kind of planet are we on here?

The fact is if you adopt standards, you can see what is right and wrong, and improve on it. For instance, there has to be a reason for no major storms near the U.S. coast even though the amount of actual storms got within the areas I had. I am already tracking it down, and I think the very heavy rains early in the season in the northern Gulf and the collapse of the loop current may have something to do with it. I can't very well just say, "oh well, that's the breaks," because the other aspects of my forecast were right... though they are least important in the public, they are clues to the meteorology. I am formulating the idea now, will have it out for you later, but am writing it up for my clients first. But the point is, unless you have actual standards, you are all over the place. You need to have a consistent way of measurement and adhere to it... to be able to actually understand what is going on.

While the hurricane aspect here is the object of the post, please understand I don't believe their is malicious intent in most cases, though the lack of recon this weekend distorted the actual history of Paula so as to not cause an embarrassment of development with the time line of a low probability forecast. However, in bigger things, the cherry picking and adjustment of data against a non-consistent standard, changing the rule as you will as you go along, to help convince people to adopt a stance that has to do with national policy, is malicious in my opinion, especially when each point can and is countered (see the rebuttal of Michael Mann's op-ed in the Washington Post... point by point, I believe it is on WUWT, or Climate Depot or Icecap) the lack of the mainstream media picking up things like Dr. Hal Lewis' letter of resignation (it would be like the pope resigning the Catholic Church) or the unwillingness to simply wait to see if the major drivers such as the PDO and AMO are the overwhelming cause for the Earth's temperatures.

By the way, the Yankees are important to the global warming debate. Mike Steinberg, a genius here at Accuweather who helps me with my power points, has a red-herring graph of the stock market that can link its movement to global warming... an astoundingly strong correlation that predicts global temperatures to warm or cool. Then he has a graph called a-rod herring that shows the Yankees winning has a correlation to the global temperatures. So watch and see what the evil empire does as we march into the World Series.

The PHILLIES (or Giants I guess) have a duty to prevent global warming and stop the Yankees, if Tampa Bay can't do it. And I am a Yankees' fan, but I want to save the planet (I am also a Phillies' fan).

In fact, anyone who plays sports at that level is darn good to me.

Ciao for now. ***
The Keys could get some pretty rough weather.
The pressure dropped 1mb down to 1002.

A. Time of Center Fix: 14th day of the month at 12:06:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°45'N 84°26'W (22.75N 84.4333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 53 miles (85 km) to the WNW (295°) from Pinar del Río, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,079m (10,102ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the WSW (244°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 315° at 39kts (From the NW at ~ 44.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the WSW (244°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1002mb (29.59 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,006m (9,862ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 72kts (~ 82.9mph) in the south quadrant at 8:50:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 45kts (~ 51.8mph) in the west quadrant at 12:11:10Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 700mb
BTW The most recent heading

takes HurricanePaula over plenty of heat

toward a deeper reserve of heat

and toward more readily accessible heat
Quoting aspectre:
BTW The most recent heading

takes HurricanePaula over plenty of heat

toward a deeper reserve of heat

and toward more readily accessible heat



if she starts venting below her she will have 2 vents to drop pressure again. i wonder if the vorticity is suggesting such, plus what appears to be a weak band of venting (or maybe it's not?).


Alot of good looking storms popping up in the visible satellite.
Quoting LightningCharmer:
Stop already...LOL...You may get the wooly-worms, peach fuzz, onions skins, all the other weather lore posts about the pending winter! Good Morning!


Paula's rain is here or on the way south Florida.

National Weather Service Enhanced Radar Image Loop - Key West, FL Radar




Thats Not the Current Radar..

Thats a Loop of Nicole..


She just blew up a little convection with the latest satellite imagery.
how far do t.s. winds extend outward in the coc? how far do the minor cat 1 winds extend out of the core? anyone know?
""
Paula's not going to hit Cuba just yet, she's still plowing towards the NE, no signs of a turn yet.
Quoting alvarig1263:


She just blew up a little convection with the latest satellite imagery.

She's starting to look more like a tail on a comet...look at those tops being blown off.

Upper level turbulence should quell that quick flare-up before she can use it in her favor.
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:
how far do t.s. winds extend outward in the coc? how far do the minor cat 1 winds extend out of the core? anyone know?


Hurricane Winds: 10 Miles
TS Winds: 50 Miles
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:
how far do t.s. winds extend outward in the coc? how far do the minor cat 1 winds extend out of the core? anyone know?

From NHC 7am advisory:

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

She's starting to look more like a tail on a comet...look at those tops being blown off.

Upper level turbulence should quell that quick flare-up before she can use it in her favor.


Key West Radar:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20weather/current%20weather%20conditions%20%28florida%2 0keys%20small%20scale%20loop%29
She could be looking a lot worse. She is a fighter.
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:
how far do t.s. winds extend outward in the coc? how far do the minor cat 1 winds extend out of the core? anyone know?
scroll through for the information from the hurricane hunter and the lastest advisory. I think H'cane winds out 10 miles and TS out 50...small storm.
Quoting robert88:
""

I always loved this time of day when the visible picture looks great.


Yup, my umbrella is ready.
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Key West Radar:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20weather/current%20weather%20conditions%20%28florida%2 0keys%20small%20scale%20loop%29

Thnx Sammy
Quoting cat5hurricane:

From NHC 7am advisory:

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM.



ty for the update.

""
http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=byx&product=NCR&loop=yes
Good morning everyone! A wet day in the Keys, with some T&L. Looking at the satelitte, it sure is hard to believe Paula is going to hug the Cuban coast. It looks like it has a bead on the Keys. Come ON Front. Push that baby south!LOL
Quoting alvarig1263:
Paula's not going to hit Cuba just yet, she's still plowing towards the NE, no signs of a turn yet.


if it keeps moving like this its going to florida
PensacolaDoug - #753. Thanks for posting.

Always entertaining JB.
Quoting cat5hurricane:


It Looks Like it Will Make a Close Pass by Key West.


By 30-40 Miles
Quoting IKE:
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg)...weakening system.
....im seriiusly surprised she lasted this long,td by tonight imo......1/3 of what was the coc exposed on vis sat....
Quoting kwgirl:
Good morning everyone! A wet day in the Keys, with some T&L. Looking at the satelitte, it sure is hard to believe Paula is going to hug the Cuban coast. It looks like it has a bead on the Keys. Come ON Front. Push that baby south!LOL

Good morning. I still think you're ok. This is a pretty strong, broad mid-to-upper level trough that should win out the tug with the low level ridge responsible for the northerly jogs. Upper-level flow likely to increase; thus eastern motion will commence.
Quoting weatherguy03:
Tropical Update Oct. 14th. 2010

Thnx weather guy. Always enjoy this.
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:
is all of the sheared moisture bringing energy to s.fla? does it have punch to it enough to form tornadoes, microbursts, etc?


If we get enough heating this afternoon we could see a few strong storms over South Florida as the moisture from Paula interacts with the approaching front. Upper Level profile not conducive for tornadoes.
I Think Paula Will Shoot the Gap Between Florida and Cuba and then be Forced SouthEast Toward Eastren Cuba and Haiti
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


This turn back S then SW is really causing the models problems trying to figure out what will happen with this next week.
Quoting kwgirl:
Good morning everyone! A wet day in the Keys, with some T&L. Looking at the satelitte, it sure is hard to believe Paula is going to hug the Cuban coast. It looks like it has a bead on the Keys. Come ON Front. Push that baby south!LOL


I guess that the NHC is REALLY confident as we still have no TS warning.
Quoting PensacolaDoug (#753):
JB this morn.

THURSDAY 7 AM
THE WORST SEASON EVER FOR SELECTIVE VERIFICATION

[multiple paragraphs of mostly-senseless ranting deleted]

There goes JB again, this time conflating the baseless and disproven assertions about the APS in Dr. Lewis' resignation letter with the NHC's meteorologists' struggle to get things right.

And what an ego! He asks, "Why not go to my idea that incorporates pressure [as a means of categorizing storms]? Perhaps 'cause they did not think of it." Yeah, that's it, Joe! Don't think for a moment that they haven't incorporated your dumb idea because it's, you know, dumb; they're not going to use it because doing so would make them feel inferior to you!

Seriously?

For a meteorologist--in fact, for any scientist--there are a few ways to handle a busted prediction:

1) Deny that you ever made such a prediction in the first place;

2) Rant and rave that, despite all observable evidence to the contrary, your prediction was correct, and the data are wrong;

3) Swear loudly and longly that it's all a conspiracy theory, that the vast majority of experts are evil and/or incompetent, and that you'll be proven right in the end;

4) Admit that you were wrong, chalk it up to experience, learn from your mistake, and move on.

JB spends a whole lot of time and energy on options #1, #2, and #3. I think it would really help his credibility, though, if he'd try option #4...at least once in a while.
What a difference a hurricane makes...I use Internet Explorer, not changing it, so the blog is messed up to where you cant post images, links, bold, itcalic, etc.

Link - http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES12152010287aEQuPb.jpg
Miami, Florida (CNN) -- A weakened Hurricane Paula was hugging the coast of western Cuba, spawning heavy winds and rain over the island nation, forecasters said.

As of 8 a.m ET Thursday, the center of Paula was located about 45 miles (70 kilometers) west of Puerto Esperanza, Cuba, and about 135 miles (215 kilometers) west of the Cuban capital of Havana, the Miami, Florida-based National Hurricane Center said. It was moving northeast at about 5 mph (7 kph).

Paula was barely clinging to Category 1 hurricane status, with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph (120 kph), and was forecast to weaken into a tropical storm later Thursday, forecasters said.

A weather station located on the western tip of Cuba reported a wind gust of 60 mph (97 kph) Thursday morning, the Hurricane Center said.
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


I guess that the NHC is REALLY confident as we still have no TS warning.


Paula will get very close to Key West before turning S.
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


I guess that the NHC is REALLY confident as we still have no TS warning.


watching the HH reports... the winds to the North just 20 miles of the COC are negligible.. the shear has just stripped it.
Good morning everyone,

question: Why is the offical track still across cuba...and the actual storm is north of cuba? 80% of all the storm clouds are already north of cuba including the center of the storm? does anyone know why?

This storm will have to go ESE quickly to get back on track...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
What a difference a hurricane makes...I use Internet Explorer, not changing it, so the blog is messed up to where you cant post images, links, bold, itcalic, etc.

Link - http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES12152010287aEQuPb.jpg

One answer for you: Mozilla Firefox. I'd never go back to IE
""
Quoting seflagamma:
Good morning everyone,

question: Why is the offical track still across cuba...and the actual storm is north of cuba? Very 80% of all the storm clouds are already north of cuba including the center of the storm? does anyone know why?

This storm will have to go ESE quickly to get back on track...

It'll have to be adjusted slightly north to account for this
Just sayin', as close as this is and still heading our way, I would think that they would err on the side of caution. more liveaboard boaters out on the hook than at docks down here.
802. IKE
Paula may need some clothes real soon....

New Blog
Quoting IKE:
Paula may need some clothes real soon....


LOL
Quoting cat5hurricane:

One answer for you: Mozilla Firefox. I'd never go back to IE


I'm using Apple's Safari and it works great.
Its like watching a beheading in the tower of london.
NEW BLOG NEW BLOG NEW BLOG
Quoting alvarig1263:


I'm using Apple's Safari and it works great.

That's good too