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Paula misses Mexico, stalls in Yucatan Channel

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:29 PM GMT on October 13, 2010

Hurricane Paula is now stationary over the Yucatan Channel, the narrow gap between Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and the western tip of Cuba. Despite Paula's Category 2 strength and passage just 60 miles east of the Mexican coast, the hurricane has not brought tropical storm-force winds to Mexico. In Cancun, top winds measured so far this morning have been just 17 mph, with gusts to 27 mph. A modest 0.17" of rain fell between midnight and 8:21am local time. Cancun radar (Figure 1) shows that the rain bands in the tightly would core of Paula lie just offshore of Cancun this morning. Paula had little impact on Mexico's Cozumel Island as the storm passed by last night; winds remained below 20 mph during passage.


Figure 1. Radar image at 9am EDT 10/13/10 from Cancun, Mexico. The core of Paula was located 60 miles to the east of Cancun, and Paula's rainbands were remaining just offshore. Image credit: CONAGUA Mexico.

Satellite imagery shows little change to Paula has occurred this morning. The amount and intensity of the storm's heavy thunderstorms have remained about the same as last night, and satellite intensity estimates continue to support calling Paula a hurricane with 90 - 100 mph winds. The Hurricane Hunters left Paula at 4am, and will not be back until 2pm, so we will have to wait until then to get a better estimate of Paula's intensity. At that time, I expect they will find a weaker storm, as wind shear has increased to a high 25 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the south. Cancun Radar shows the storm has stalled and been stationary between 6am - 9am EDT; if Paula remains nearly stationary for several more hours, the hurricane may churn up cold water from the depths, causing weakening. However, Paula is currently over a patch of the deepest, warmest water in the entire North Atlantic. Waters of 26°C (79°F) or warmer extend to a depth of 400 feet (120 meters) in the Yucatan Channel, and it will take much longer than usual for a stationary hurricane in this region to significantly cool the surface waters.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Paula taken at 12:20pm EDT 10/12/10 by NASA's Terra satellite. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Paula
Paula should start moving to the northeast or east later this morning, bringing it near the tip of western Cuba late tonight or early Thursday morning. Hurricane force winds extend out just fifteen miles from Paula's center, so only a very small region of coast will receive Paula's strongest winds if landfall occurs. The 5am EDT wind probability product from NHC gives Cabo San Antonio on the western tip of Cuba the highest odds of receiving hurricane force winds of any land area--a 34% chance. Key West is given a 2% chance, and Havana, Cuba, a 6% chance. It currently appears that heavy rain will be the major threat from Paula. If Paula stalls over or near western Cuba for several days, the hurricane could easily dump more than ten inches over mountainous regions of the island.

The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for wind shear to rise to a very high 30 knots tonight, and remain about 30 knots for the rest of the week. This high shear, caused by strong upper-level winds from the south, should begin to eat away at the south side of Paula's eyewall today, causing the inner core of the storm to collapse and Paula to weaken to a tropical storm by Thursday. If Paula hits the western tip of Cuba, weakening will be hastened. Given Paula's small size, once the inner core is disrupted, the storm could weaken very quickly.

The latest set of model runs from 2am EDT (6Z) continue to show a fair degree of uncertainty about the future path of Paula. There are two basic solutions. One solution, championed by the GFDL and GFS ensemble mean, takes Paula through or just south of the Florida Keys on Friday morning, then into the Bahamas Friday afternoon. The other solution, offered by the rest of the models, is for Paula to move very slowly over western Cuba the next few days, then circle southeastwards into the Caribbean, as a strong high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico intensifies and pushes Paula to the south. This is the more likely scenario, given the current trends in how the models are depicting evolution of the jet stream pattern over the U.S. in the coming days. However, residents of South Florida, the Keys, and the Bahamas should be anticipate the possibility of Paula coming their way as a strong tropical storm on Friday.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS model is predicting the formation of Tropical Storm Richard 5 - 6 days from now, in the southern Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua, near where Paula formed. The GFS has just a strong tropical disturbance forming there.

In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Fifteen has formed, and is predicted to be a major typhoon that will threaten the northern Philippines early next week.

Next update
I'll have an update between 3pm - 4pm this afternoon.

Jeff Masters
Hurricane Paula
Hurricane Paula

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting kmanislander:


Was there a bounce to the East ?
kman very slight, its been bouncing more to the north and NNE and east , if you just look at the mexican radar i see a East movement but when i look at the cuban radar i see a stalled moving around movement
Quoting kmanislander:


Was there a bounce to the East ?


Yes, shortly after a bounce to the west. Mean motion looks N with an east drift.
back later !!! lets see what 5pm brings
Quoting Levi32:


The GFS ensembles? That's a good question, but they must be seeing a deeper system than the other models. I do think they are too far north with the depicted south Florida hit though.
yep
Quoting beell:
Hey Levi,
Met Ms Met, yet?
Getting enough sleep?

Anyway, appreciate the update.
)


Lol, no haven't met Ms. Met yet unfortunately :(

I'm doing my best to catch up on sleep. It's harder than it seems lol.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Paula's structure looking worse on radar as the eye undergoes some changes. This makes the system more susceptible to the shear, though if she can hold onto that core she can still retain hurricane-force gusts for a while yet if she remains offshore of Cuba.

Back later.

Quoting PalmBeachWeather:

oracle....Got me confused......Just where are you ??


At my desk.


Wind Field grew a little bit.

On the forecast track, Cuba will miss Hurricane winds.
NHC is nailing the track this time around.
Anyone seeing higher winds then this on the NE side?


Time: 18:10:30Z
Coordinates: 21.4833N 85.55W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.9 mb (~ 20.58 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,116 meters (~ 10,223 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1000.3 mb (~ 29.54 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 170° at 68 knots (From the S at ~ 78.2 mph)
Air Temp: 7.9°C* (~ 46.2°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 71 knots (~ 81.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 63 knots (~ 72.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 7 mm/hr (~ 0.28 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
New Vortex Message


Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 13th day of the month at 18:28Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2010
Storm Name: Paula (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 13th day of the month at 18:12:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°27'N 85°42'W (21.45N 85.7W)
B. Center Fix Location: 76 miles (122 km) to the ENE (74°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,046m (9,993ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 64kts (~ 73.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the ENE (77°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 168° at 72kts (From between the SSE and S at ~ 82.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the E (81°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 992mb (29.29 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 6°C (43°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,052m (10,013ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 72kts (~ 82.9mph) in the east quadrant at 18:10:10Z
Quoting pottery:

I thought it was North Cuba.

LOL
Can anyone take a guess on precip amts for SFL I haven't seen any maps...deluge?? Light Moderate Noah Ark????
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
When I talk to people on this site they ask me where I live.I am in Palm Beach county Florida... I tell them I survived the Xenia, Ohio tornado, Hurricane Francis, Hurricane Jeanne, and Hurrican Wilma.... My only suggestion to them is "DON'T FOLLOW ME"
Sooo You're the reason for all those hurricanes!! LOL When are you moving and to where?
Paula seems to be unwinding. Her wind field is going to expand as a result, which seems to make the satellite presentation initially seem like she is strengthening.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
New Vortex Message


Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 13th day of the month at 18:28Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2010
Storm Name: Paula (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 13th day of the month at 18:12:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°27'N 85°42'W (21.45N 85.7W)
B. Center Fix Location: 76 miles (122 km) to the ENE (74°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,046m (9,993ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 64kts (~ 73.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the ENE (77°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 168° at 72kts (From between the SSE and S at ~ 82.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the E (81°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 992mb (29.29 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 6°C (43°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,052m (10,013ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 72kts (~ 82.9mph) in the east quadrant at 18:10:10Z



73.6 barely qualifies for a low-end cat 1.
Quoting southfla:
Paula seems to be unwinding. Her wind field is going to expand as a result, which seems to make the satellite presentation initially seem like she is strengthening.


Tiny Paula is growing.
""
Quoting pottery:

I thought it was North Cuba.
LOL Almost, but we can't block the shipping lanes in the Straights.
Quoting tropicfreak:



73.6 barely qualifies for a low-end cat 1.



Till Paula can complete the EWRC further weakening is expected. With all the adverse conditions about Paula may not be strong enough to complete it and quickly degrade.
Quoting tropicfreak:


Tiny Paula is growing.
That is the point. That as Paula unwinds, and weakens the wind field will expand outward and she will appear to grow in size. That doesn't mean she is strengthening, in fact it will mean the opposite.
Probably going to decouple. Is there even an eyewall anymore? I haven't seen anything with the new data.
Not really weather related............But I have been watching the men rescued from the Chilean mine....What a wonderful scene that everyone is ok so far....I can't imagine what these men have been through , and they all seem to be healthy and in good spirits.
ACE stands at an impressive 140.3.
Interesting little feature down @ 17.5N 83.1W

Seems to be interfering with Paula's south quad a bit.


Corrected to 17.5N
...and the USA dodges yet another bullet!
AL, 18, 2010101318, , BEST, 0, 215N, 857W, 75, 990, HU,
just came back again for today was looking through the blog pages and i didnt find one comment on that 5.1 quake in oklahoma a couple of hours ago.
Quoting winter123:
...and the USA dodges yet another bullet!


Funny thing is, we have had so many named storms, and most of them seem to have found a way not to hit the US. Of course we had bonnie, but that was nothing to sneeze at.
At the rate this is going, this will be struggle to be a hurricane at 4pm. A strong TS may be in store. Timing was bad for her. She did not complete the EWRC in time. Now the adverse conditions (shear) will work to chip away even more at her.
Quoting winter123:
...and the USA dodges yet another bullet!

not yet
a lot more rain than expected should impact southern florida... as the system is becoming lop sided...
Paula will be a TS soon. Flight level winds have dropped and so has surface. This is the highest surface wind i have seen....SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 67 knots (~ 77.0 mph)
Quoting TropicalMan2010:
just came back again for today was looking through the blog pages and i didnt find one comment on that 5.1 quake in oklahoma a couple of hours ago.


I only heard about and felt the 4.3 one.
Quoting cat5hurricane:
At the rate this is going, this will be struggle to be a hurricane at 4pm. A strong TS may be in store. Timing was bad for her. She did not complete the EWRC in time. Now the adverse conditions (shear) will work to chip away even more at her.



Notice the little swirlie bob to the SE, of Paula?
Quoting oracle28:


I only heard and felt the 4.3 one.

lol just checked they brought it down again first 4.3 then 5.1 then back down to 4.3 lol
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



Notice the little swirlie bob to the SE, of Paula?

I do see it.
Hermine had a tighter better looking core than Paula right now lol
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
NHC is nailing the track this time around.


Yeah, they always nail it after they change it 4 times. LOL.
Quoting TropicalMan2010:

lol just checked they brought it down again first 4.3 then 5.1 then back down to 4.3 lol


Yes, just read the 5.1 article from okc, but usgs says 4.3 still. maybe they haven't updated the site yet, or are still analyzing the data. Barely felt it here in Little Rock, AR. I actually thought it was associated with the microfault 40 miles north of here.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL STORM MEGI (T1013)
3:00 AM JST October 14 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near The Marianas

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Megi (1002 hPa) located at 11.7N 140.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest slowly

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Gale Force Winds
=================
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 13.0N 138.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 15.1N 135.5E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 17.2N 131.2E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
543. 7544
paula moving again nne ?
I cry everytime a miner comes up to freedom.......Those poor guys have put up what none of us can imagine.
only two models point to florida now. XTRP and CLP5.

Quoting TropicalMan2010:
just came back again for today was looking through the blog pages and i didnt find one comment on that 5.1 quake in oklahoma a couple of hours ago.


There were a couple comments here. You might check out this wublog

OKGS had it at 5.1, USGS 4.3. last I looked anyway. Doesn't seem to be much damage/injury. Two people in good condition in hospital. One of them fell off a ladder during the quake. newsok.com
Quoting oracle28:
only two models point to florida now. XTRP and CLP5.


lol nogaps does a loop and back in the gom dont buy that
Quoting oracle28:
only two models point to florida now. XTRP and CLP5.


oracle.............Don't make me come over there
Quoting TropicalMan2010:

lol nogaps does a loop and back in the gom dont buy that


I didn't, I got it for free.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:

oracle.............Don't make me come over there


I'm a long way from Palm Beach, and I'm not worth the trip. LOL
Anybody know any good jokes? The blog is dead!
The GFS has dropped Richard and ECMWF doesn't show anything as well. Looks like Paula will be it until the last week of the month when the MJO comes back.
Quoting aprinz1979:
Anybody know any good jokes? The blog is dead!


Knock Knock...
553 aprinz1979 "Anybody know any good jokes?"

Paula: The Little Hurricane That Could
"I think I can. I think I can. I think I can, I think I can. I think I can, I think I can, I think I can hit Tampa."

HurricanePaula's heading was (2.6degrees east of) NorthNorthEast
H.Paula's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~5mph(~8km/h)
Cat.2 H.Paula
12Oct 06pmGMT - - 18.8n85.8w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 981mb -- NHC.Adv.#5
12Oct 09pmGMT - - 19.2n86.0w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 981mb -- NHC.Adv.#6
13Oct 12amGMT - - 19.6n86.0w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 981mb -- NHC.Adv.#6A
13Oct 03amGMT - - 19.9n86.0w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 981mb -- NHC.Adv.#7
13Oct 06amGMT - - 20.4n86.0w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 981mb -- NHC.Adv.#7A
13Oct 09amGMT - - 20.7n86.0w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#8
13Oct 12pmGMT - - 21.3n85.9w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#8A
13Oct 03pmGMT - - 21.3n85.8w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#9
13Oct 06pmGMT - - 21.5n85.7w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 989mb -- NHC.Adv.#9A

Copy &paste 18.8n85.8w, 19.2n86.0w, 19.6n86.0w, 19.9n86.0w, 20.4n86.0w-20.7n86.0w, 20.7n86.0w-21.3n85.9w, 21.3n85.9w-21.3n85.8w, 21.3n85.8w-21.5n85.7w, cun, srq, pbi, 21.5n85.7w-27.41n82.59w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~3days16hours from now to the BayshoresGardens,Florida

^ The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
Quoting aprinz1979:
Anybody know any good jokes? The blog is dead!


There's the one about the XTRP "model". That one's been getting a lot of airtime lately.
SWMBO and I had words,

But I didn't get to use mine.
Quoting DookiePBC:


There's the one about the XTRP "model". That one's been getting a lot of airtime lately.


And the shower curtain. I only got a brief explanation of that one yesterday.
You guys are ridiculous. It's still a Hurricane at 5 p.m.
Latest pass highest surface wind near the center 74.8mph. Paula is barely a hurricane.
Quoting oracle28:


And the shower curtain. I only got a brief explanation of that one yesterday.


Lol

Quoting aprinz1979:
Anybody know any good jokes? The blog is dead!
Riddle me this....."What do you call a weakening cyclone that some see as a strengthening beast?"
.
.
.
.
.
A tropical occlusion
.
.
.
.
hey...there's only so much you can do with cyclone humor.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Riddle me this....."What do you call a weakening cyclone that some see as a strengthening beast?"
.
.
.
.
.
A tropical occlusion
.
.
.
.
hey...there's only so much you can do with cyclone humor.


Did you mean "trOPTICAL occlusion"?
Highest FL wind is 80kts. Paula might be a TS before Recon gets home.
Quoting reedzone:
You guys are ridiculous. It's still a Hurricane at 5 p.m.


Yes, we're all crazy, you are the only normal one here. Lonely feeling, huh?

Paula is weakening, but expanding.
568. 7544
Quoting aspectre:
HurricanePaula's heading was (2.6degrees east of) NorthNorthEast
H.Paula's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~5mph(~8km/h)
Cat.2 H.Paula
12Oct 06pmGMT - - 18.8n85.8w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 981mb -- NHC.Adv.#5
12Oct 09pmGMT - - 19.2n86.0w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 981mb -- NHC.Adv.#6
13Oct 12amGMT - - 19.6n86.0w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 981mb -- NHC.Adv.#6A
13Oct 03amGMT - - 19.9n86.0w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 981mb -- NHC.Adv.#7
13Oct 06amGMT - - 20.4n86.0w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 981mb -- NHC.Adv.#7A
13Oct 09amGMT - - 20.7n86.0w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#8
13Oct 12pmGMT - - 21.3n85.9w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#8A
13Oct 03pmGMT - - 21.3n85.8w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#9
13Oct 06pmGMT - - 21.5n85.7w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - 989mb -- NHC.Adv.#9A

Copy &paste 18.8n85.8w, 19.2n86.0w, 19.6n86.0w, 19.9n86.0w, 20.4n86.0w-20.7n86.0w, 20.7n86.0w-21.3n85.9w, 21.3n85.9w-21.3n85.8w, 21.3n85.8w-21.5n85.7w, cun, srq, pbi, 21.5n85.7w-27.41n82.59w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~3days16hours from now to the BayshoresGardens,Florida

^ The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.


nne still a cat 2 getting larger in size
convection speading outflow as far north at 25n looks like so fla could be back in play for some strong ts effects should know more in a couple of hours
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 13th day of the month at 19:21Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2010
Storm Name: Paula (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 13th day of the month at 19:00:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°32'N 85°44'W (21.5333N 85.7333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 76 miles (122 km) to the ENE (69°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,039m (9,970ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 69kts (~ 79.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the SSW (200°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 308° at 62kts (From the NW at ~ 71.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the SSW (200°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 993mb (29.32 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,034m (9,954ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 72kts (~ 82.9mph) in the east quadrant at 18:10:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 80kts (~ 92.1mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:03:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 17°C (63°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the SSW (196°) from the flight level center
There's too much downcasting here today, Paula will still be a Hurricane, slightly weaker as shear is disrupting the storm, not destroying it. It's been in 20-30 knots so far today and has managed well to maintain 100 mph. So what makes you all believe that 30 knots will destroy Paula? Even Levi mentioned that the shear is not as destructive as people think, especially when Paula is moving IN DIRECTION of the wind shear. 80-90 mph. by 5 p.m. is a good guess.
Quoting toddbizz:
Can anyone take a guess on precip amts for SFL I haven't seen any maps...deluge?? Light Moderate Noah Ark????

Not too much as yet.

Radar estimates last 24 hrs
Wobbling around out there. Center moved to the NNW lol

""
573. 7544
could we see any additional watches reed what u think as shes going nne with the outer bands as far north as 25 n tia

570. reedzone 3:31 PM EDT on October 13, 2010
There's too much downcasting here today, Paula will still be a Hurricane, slightly weaker as shear is disrupting the storm, not destroying it. It's been in 20-30 knots so far today and has managed well to maintain 100 mph. So what makes you all believe that 30 knots will destroy Paula? Even Levi mentioned that the shear is not as destructive as people think, especially when Paula is moving IN DIRECTION of the wind shear. 80-90 mph. by 5 p.m. is a good guess.
Quoting toddbizz:
Can anyone take a guess on precip amts for SFL I haven't seen any maps...deluge?? Light Moderate Noah Ark????


Quoting robert88:
The GFS has dropped Richard and ECMWF doesn't show anything as well. Looks like Paula will be it until the last week of the month when the MJO comes back.


Given the fact NONE of the models developed Paula, I suspect they're wrong.. especially given the fact the GFS was developing this system 5+ days out.
Quoting reedzone:
There's too much downcasting here today, Paula will still be a Hurricane, slightly weaker as shear is disrupting the storm, not destroying it. It's been in 20-30 knots so far today and has managed well to maintain 100 mph. So what makes you all believe that 30 knots will destroy Paula? Even Levi mentioned that the shear is not as destructive as people think, especially when Paula is moving IN DIRECTION of the wind shear. 80-90 mph. by 5 p.m. is a good guess.


Sorry, I didn't see that Levi had said that... now I will have to pay attention and go check.
Quoting aprinz1979:


Reed,

Since the blog is DEAD, do you think Paula is going to make a direct landfall on South Florida?

Let's see if that gets the blog going again!


No, I'm starting to feel confident that it will stay just north of Cuba. Models are starting to finally come in line with a good agreement.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Riddle me this....."What do you call a weakening cyclone that some see as a strengthening beast?"
.
.
.
.
.
A tropical occlusion
.
.
.
.
hey...there's only so much you can do with cyclone humor.


LOL

you are right you can only do so much with what you've got or you may risk going to WU jail.

Quoting reedzone:
...is a good guess.


Got it
Quoting 7544:
could we see any additional watches reed what u think as shes going nne with the outer bands as far north as 25 n tia

570. reedzone 3:31 PM EDT on October 13, 2010
There's too much downcasting here today, Paula will still be a Hurricane, slightly weaker as shear is disrupting the storm, not destroying it. It's been in 20-30 knots so far today and has managed well to maintain 100 mph. So what makes you all believe that 30 knots will destroy Paula? Even Levi mentioned that the shear is not as destructive as people think, especially when Paula is moving IN DIRECTION of the wind shear. 80-90 mph. by 5 p.m. is a good guess.


Not really, this should affect Cuba at the most, the Keys may get some TS force winds, since the wind field is expanding some.
582. 7544
looks like she wants to head for the fla straights n of cuba hmmm. paula does not want touch landmass yet
From Yahoo Joke (not mine)

Although he was a qualified meteorologist, Hopkins ran up a terrible record of forecasting for the TV news program. He became something of a local joke when a newspaper began keeping a record of his predictions and showed that he'd been wrong almost three hundred times in a single year. That kind of notoriety was enough to get him fired. He moved to another part of the country and applied for a similar job. One blank on the job application called for the reason for leaving his previous position. Hopkins wrote, "The climate didn't agree with me."
majority of the models indicate it will head between the north coast of cuba and the florida Keys as of the last run.
Quoting reedzone:


No, I'm starting to feel confident that it will stay just north of Cuba. Models are starting to finally come in line with a good agreement.


I think it will go somewhere south of north florida and north of south cuba, myself.
586. 7544
looks like we have a northward jog ?
Down to Category 1.. as expected.


Regarding the rest of the season.. I'll be surprised to see if we don't get another storm. 2008, which at this point had Omar out in the Caribbean, saw 1 more after that.. Paloma.

2007 was at 13, saw two named storms after the 13th.

2005 saw 7 named storms after this date.

'04 saw 1, '03 saw 3, and so on.

We'll probably end the season with 18-9-5.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Sorry, I didn't see that Levi had said that... now I will have to pay attention and go check.


Go ahead, he said the storm moving in the direction of shear will keep it from rapidly weakening, unless it makes landfall. It's been under 20-30 knots all day so far and is still at 100 mph. per the 2 p.m. advisory. Not saying it's gonna blow up, thought they would find winds of 105 mph. but I was wrong. I don't see them classifying a TS from a 100 mph. at 5 p.m. Probably went down due to some disruption from the shear.
589. 7544
closed eyewall hmmm
Quoting oracle28:


I think it will go somewhere south of north florida and north of south cuba, myself.


did you take over for destin jeff as the class clown? where is DJ anyway?
thanks for posting the precip potential for SFL looks like the spillway will open amd the snook will be hungry....
New blog peeps!
593. 7544
models will shift north again latter
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Down to Category 1.. as expected.


Regarding the rest of the season.. I'll be surprised to see if we don't get another storm. 2008, which at this point had Omar out in the Caribbean, saw 1 more after that.. Paloma.

2007 was at 13, saw two named storms after the 13th.

2005 saw 7 named storms after this date.

'04 saw 1, '03 saw 3, and so on.

We'll probably end the season with 18-9-5.


Magic number right there, 18-9-5, my prediction from May. I think winds will be around 80-90 on the next advisory.
Thanks for posting the precip potential for SFL...looks wet
Quoting pottery:

But not really very likely.

Not very likely looks to be playing out...
597. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:
From Yahoo Joke (not mine)

Although he was a qualified meteorologist, Hopkins ran up a terrible record of forecasting for the TV news program. He became something of a local joke when a newspaper began keeping a record of his predictions and showed that he'd been wrong almost three hundred times in a single year. That kind of notoriety was enough to get him fired. He moved to another part of the country and applied for a similar job. One blank on the job application called for the reason for leaving his previous position. Hopkins wrote, "The climate didn't agree with me."


Wow, ha...ha...ha?
It didnt even make me smile. XD
NEW BLOG
Looks like Paula is being shredded...Put a fork in her...
NEW BLOG
Quoting reedzone:
You guys are ridiculous. It's still a Hurricane at 5 p.m.
,bet its just barely,by 11pm she'll ge a downgrade imo...sheer just getting to high now...
Quoting reedzone:
You guys are ridiculous. It's still a Hurricane at 5 p.m.


There is a significant rise in pressure, winds are down and sat appearance is declining rapidly now. All this and its only going to get worse. Prop will stay a cat 1 for 5pm as thats what it is.....and TS by morning or sooner....maybe less. Squalls and some rain for extreme S. Florida. No cat 1 or 2, not even close. All IMO only.
Quoting reedzone:
There's too much downcasting here today, Paula will still be a Hurricane, slightly weaker as shear is disrupting the storm, not destroying it. It's been in 20-30 knots so far today and has managed well to maintain 100 mph. So what makes you all believe that 30 knots will destroy Paula? Even Levi mentioned that the shear is not as destructive as people think, especially when Paula is moving IN DIRECTION of the wind shear. 80-90 mph. by 5 p.m. is a good guess.


Tell the recon...the information they are providing barely supports hurricane strength not to mention the sat appearance.
Quoting reedzone:
There's too much downcasting here today, Paula will still be a Hurricane, slightly weaker as shear is disrupting the storm, not destroying it. It's been in 20-30 knots so far today and has managed well to maintain 100 mph. So what makes you all believe that 30 knots will destroy Paula? Even Levi mentioned that the shear is not as destructive as people think, especially when Paula is moving IN DIRECTION of the wind shear. 80-90 mph. by 5 p.m. is a good guess.

Reed, there certainly is a lot of downcasting on this site at times...but you need to remember that there's a difference between an unscientific downcast and a forecast based on meteorlogy and climatology that doesn't call for as much development as some would hope.

Now, Paula is weakening, and while she may have spurts of growth from here on out, the trend trend has been--and will continue to be--toward negative development. ATCF says her max winds are now down to 75 knots (85 mph), and I would anticipate that dropping perhaps a bit further by the 5PM TWO. At the rate she's declining, she's very likely to be just a tropical storm by morning, if not later this evening.

The HH found 991 mb on its first pass, 992 on its second, and 993 on its third. It's making its fourth pass very shortly, and I would imagine it won't find anything below 994 (if even that low).
605. beell
new blog
Quoting dmh1026:
Looks like Paula is being shredded...Put a fork in her...

not yet
like this NEW BLOG!!!lol





Basic course... 010