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Paula intensifies to Category 2

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:34 PM GMT on October 12, 2010

Hurricane Paula put on a respectable burst of intensification early this afternoon, popping an eye and reaching Category 2 strength. Last night and early this morning, Paula set a modern record for the fastest intensification from the issuance of the first advisory to hurricane strength, performing the feat in just 12 hours. At 1pm this afternoon, an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft measured surface winds of 104 mph with their SFMR instrument in Paula's northeast eyewall. On the second pass through the eyewall at 2pm, the SFMR saw top winds of 85 mph, in Paula's northwest eyewall, and the pressure had dropped 1 mb in one hour. The aircraft passed through the northeast eyewall again near 3pm EDT, and found weaker surface winds, just 83 mph, compared to the 104 mph seen at 1pm. The pressure remained the same as at 2pm, suggesting that Paula is done intensifying. Paula is a small hurricane, with hurricane force winds that extend out just 10 miles from the center. The eye is very tight, with a diameter of 11 miles. The Hurricane Hunters noted something in their comments I've never seen before--the eye was more square than circular.


Figure 1. Radar image at 3pm EDT 10/12/10 from Cancun, Mexico, showing rain from an outer spiral band over Cozumel Island, and the core of Paula to the south-southeast of the island. Image credit: CONAGUA Mexico.

Satellite imagery has been showing the intermittent appearance of an eye this afternoon, and Paula has been growing more organized, with improving low-level spiral banding and upper-level outflow. Water vapor satellite loops indicate that the atmosphere in the Western Caribbean is moist enough to support further development, but moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the south, is slowing Paula's intensification.


Figure 2. Rain rate (inches per hour) as measured by the TRMM satellite at 12:29 pm EDT 10/12/10. Peak rain rates of 0.8 inches/hr (yellow colors) were occurring in a spiral band on Paula's west side. Lower rain rates of 0.6 inches/hr (green colors) were seen in the eyewall. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Forecast for Paula
Radar from Cancun shows that an outer spiral band moved over Cozumel between 2 - 3pm EDT, bringing a brief heavy rain squall to the island. This band will move inland over the Yucatan Peninsula, bringing a brief heavy rain squall to Cancun late this afternoon. Radar and satellite imagery indicate about a six-hour break after passage of this spiral band before the next major band hits, late tonight. Tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph extend out from Paula's center about 70 miles to the north. Paula's current north-northwest motion of 10 mph means that tropical storm force winds should reach the coast of Mexico near Cozumel between 8pm - 2am local time tonight. A good way to visualize this is to use our wundermap with the "hurricane" layer turned on, and click on the "forecast" and "wind radius" boxes. Hurricane force winds extend out just ten miles from the center, so only a very small region of coast will receive Paula's strongest winds. The 1:45pm EDT wind probability product from NHC gives a 99% chance that Cozumel will receive tropical storm force winds, and a 60% chance of getting hurricane force winds of 74+ mph. In addition to high winds, heavy rain will be a major threat. If Paula stalls as expected and wanders in the region for many days, rainfall forecasts from the HWRF and GFDL models suggest that Paula will be capable of dumping more than a foot of rain in isolated regions over the next five days. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for wind shear to rise to the high range, 25 - 40 knots, tonight through the end of the week. This high shear, combined with the dry atmosphere to the north of Paula, should limit Paula's chances of becoming a major hurricane, since the hurricane is small and vulnerable to high wind shear. NHC is giving Paula a 27% chance of becoming a major hurricane. Shear, dry air, and interaction with the land area of western Cuba and/or the Yucatan Peninsula are likely to weaken the storm below hurricane strength later this week, as suggested by most of the intensity forecast models.

The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) still show a variety of solutions for the future path of Paula. Steering currents in the Western Caribbean will collapse on Wednesday, potentially allowing Paula to wander in the region for many days. It is also possible that Paula could get caught up in a strong trough of low pressure predicted to traverse the U.S. this week (and spawn a Nor'easter for New England this weekend.) In this scenario, offered by the GFDL model, Paula would make a sharp turn to the east-northeast, hit western Cuba, bring tropical storm-force finds to the Florida Keys on Thursday night, then move into the Bahama Islands on Friday. NHC is making the reasonable forecast of sticking with what the majority of models are saying by predicting that Paula will stall out near the western tip of Cuba. However, residents of South Florida, Central Cuba, and the Bahamas should be prepared for Paula to come their way as a strong tropical storm on Thursday and Friday.

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
My live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", will be airing again today at 4pm EDT. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
What is this, training hurricanes?

Good Morning! I've noticed over the years that if an area is conducive or ripe for development; that area usual stays that way for many days. I've noticed many back to back or almost back to back tropical systems from the same area over a period even lasting a week or two. It very interesting to me that with all the air and water moving and interacting, one area can be ripe for development or cyclogenesis for more than a few hours but it does.
1002. IKE
4:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 13
Location: 20.7°N 86.0°W
Max sustained: 100 mph
Moving: N at 9 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
.............................................

...SMALL BUT STRONG HURRICANE PAULA MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...
7:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 13
Location: 21.3°N 85.9°W
Max sustained: 100 mph
Moving: N at 9 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
1003. 7544
hmm could we see a new invest just south of paula latter today ?

paula looks like she wants to go further north than planed lets see if the turn to the east comes in play she may beat the front on this run
1004. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 13 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
PAULA...LOCATED ABOUT 55 MILES EAST OF CANCUN MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Good Morning all!

@ the 8am advisory Paula is already at the 11am projected coordinates by NHC.

My gut feeling is that Paula will miss Cuba altogether and come into the Florida Straits and be much closer to the Keys than is forecasted.

If anything she seems to have picked up a little forward speed early this morning
hey guys sorry my comupter crashed and gained a trojan so now I am now working on my PS3 so I won't be on as much
1008. shikori
Quoting 7544:
hmm could we see a new invest just south of paula latter today ?

paula looks like she wants to go further north than planed lets see if the turn to the east comes in play she may beat the front on this run



the latest
400-850 steering winds

Link

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm3.html



wind shear--

Link

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.htmlimg

src="http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html">



wind shear tendency--

Link

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
hope this works
The so "call" indians would have been the majority and the rulers in this hemisphere and not living in "reservations"?
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:
400-850 steering winds

Link

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm3.html



wind shear--

Link

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.htmlimg

src="http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html">



wind shear tendency--

Link

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html

SHBama - You still think this one is coming north into the FL straits and into the keys?
1012. 7544
looks like now new conv forming to her north

when is the next recon dont think paula wants to give in yet lol
'Obviously a mistake but will scare some.

Follow this link (Floater - Visible Loop{Flash}) and click, "Trop Pts."

Watch-out south Florida? It's a mistake but worth the look.

EDIT: Sorry, it only happens on my phone browser; tried it on my Mac, and it displays correctly. The forecast points were going strait into the Everglades.
There is no way in God's green earth that Paula is going to take the current track of the NHC. That hurricane (weakened) is going to hit Key West / Ft. Myers head-on.

That's right. I said it.

My basis for making this claim is the water vapor loop. The blob south and east of Paula is moving at a nice clip and right into the area Paula is supposed to take a parallel course.

I am telling ya. There is no freaking way that hurricane makes such a hard turn so soon.
I think paula will stay south of cuba any I am off for now.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

SHBama - You still think this one is coming north into the FL straits and into the keys?


i dont know at this point. there are so many factors at once she could do alot of things. i see that although the models were scattered with the spaghetti noodles it was for good reason.

if she moves north she is going to eat some huge shear...however moisture content in the gulf is way higher than 2 days ago.

however how much of that moisture is arctic air? that could seriously affect her development.

shear tendency is dropping the large pocket of shear north and east into the mid atlantic from its previous position over the gulf states region, however shear 100-150 miles north of Paula takes her into 30 kts. that could shear her apart and make her nothing but a long line of squally rainshowers with some potential for minor microbursts, lightning, and alot of rain.

its hard to tell what is going to happen.

i was just curious if it may follow the path the nhc and the w.channel have been advocating. the divergence shows the disturbance to the southeast of Paula and the divergence she is creating are close to possibly interconnecting, and if she was to make a hard right i was wondering what the statistical chances were that she does a deep loop-d-loop and heads back around towards the windward strait later sometime early next week. that looks like a ton of kinetic and potential energy below her to the right so just curious
Quoting LightningCharmer:
'Obviously a mistake but will scare some.

Follow this link (Floater - Visible Loop{Flash}) and click, "Trop Pts."

Watch-out south Florida? It's a mistake but worth the look.


They take her right into Cuba.
1019. hydrus
Quoting 7544:
looks like now new conv forming to her north

when is the next recon dont think paula wants to give in yet lol
Paula still wants a shot at da title, da "major" title, I doubt she makes it though...Oh !...What a surprise, There,s low pressure in the Western Caribbean 6 days from now....
Quoting KennyNebraska:
There is no way in God's green earth that Paula is going to take the current track of the NHC. That hurricane (weakened) is going to hit Key West / Ft. Myers head-on.

That's right. I said it.

My basis for making this claim is the water vapor loop. The blob south and east of Paula is moving at a nice clip and right into the area Paula is supposed to take a parallel course.

I am telling ya. There is no freaking way that hurricane makes such a hard turn so soon.



she is so small i don't know if she could even make it that far inland. if she took the everglades the wind shear + land shear could rip her apart....if that happened it would be a bad day for pelicans and alligators, but she could fall apart before making it to human civilization.

she is very very very small. 20 miles wide is tiny in the hurricane world.
1021. dmh1026
Quoting KennyNebraska:
There is no way in God's green earth that Paula is going to take the current track of the NHC. That hurricane (weakened) is going to hit Key West / Ft. Myers head-on.

That's right. I said it.

My basis for making this claim is the water vapor loop. The blob south and east of Paula is moving at a nice clip and right into the area Paula is supposed to take a parallel course.

I am telling ya. There is no freaking way that hurricane makes such a hard turn so soon.
I said the same thing last night...I can't see it going into Cuba.
Quoting KennyNebraska:
There is no way in God's green earth that Paula is going to take the current track of the NHC. That hurricane (weakened) is going to hit Key West / Ft. Myers head-on.

Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:



she is so small i don't know if she could even make it that far inland.


?

Greetings.
It looks like some of the Caribbean is in a large gyre. Is there a chance these two systems Paula and L98 might come back south and get a second crack at development? A re-run back at the GoM?
Quoting biff4ugo:
Greetings.
It looks like some of the Caribbean is in a large gyre. Is there a chance these two systems Paula and L98 might come back south and get a second crack at development? A re-run back at the GoM?


And with the 2nd bigger trough coming in, I'm wondering what conditions we'll find in the GoM a week from now.
Quoting KennyNebraska:
There is no way in God's green earth that Paula is going to take the current track of the NHC. That hurricane (weakened) is going to hit Key West / Ft. Myers head-on.

That's right. I said it.

My basis for making this claim is the water vapor loop. The blob south and east of Paula is moving at a nice clip and right into the area Paula is supposed to take a parallel course.

I am telling ya. There is no freaking way that hurricane makes such a hard turn so soon.



i dunno about that look at the vorticity on this link--

Link

it's showing directly east now from her eyewall
Quoting KennyNebraska:
Quoting KennyNebraska:
There is no way in God's green earth that Paula is going to take the current track of the NHC. That hurricane (weakened) is going to hit Key West / Ft. Myers head-on.



oops sorry about the 1st response misread what you wrote.
1027. 7544
wouldnt the blob to gthe south of paula kinda feed her as the shear tries to kill her but could get her energy back from the blob and couldnt it push her more north before the turn happen this blob k just came in the pic could it be a player now ? and block the early east turn . shes still going north tho tia
Quoting GoodOleBudSir:


They take her right into Cuba.
Thank you for noticing my error. I corrected my comment. It was my phone browser but only with Flash; the Java was fine.
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:


i dont know at this point. there are so many factors at once she could do alot of things. i see that although the models were scattered with the spaghetti noodles it was for good reason.

if she moves north she is going to eat some huge shear...however moisture content in the gulf is way higher than 2 days ago.

however how much of that moisture is arctic air? that could seriously affect her development.

shear tendency is dropping the large pocket of shear north and east into the mid atlantic from its previous position over the gulf states region, however shear 100-150 miles north of Paula takes her into 30 kts. that could shear her apart and make her nothing but a long line of squally rainshowers with some potential for minor microbursts, lightning, and alot of rain.

its hard to tell what is going to happen.

i was just curious if it may follow the path the nhc and the w.channel have been advocating. the divergence shows the disturbance to the southeast of Paula and the divergence she is creating are close to possibly interconnecting, and if she was to make a hard right i was wondering what the statistical chances were that she does a deep loop-d-loop and heads back around towards the windward strait later sometime early next week. that looks like a ton of kinetic and potential energy below her to the right so just curious

She'll probably stay a bit north of the NHC projected forecast track, but still has to completely clear any landmass friction with the rugged Terrain of Cuba is she proves to remain a TS heading into the FL straits. I'm just not completely onboard that that will happen. If it does, she is a tiny system, and shear will wreak havok on her.

Now the staying south of Cuba and coming back in for another loop is interesting, as several of the models last evening were alutting to.

Either way it's a tough forecast to gauge, and no one is out of the woods just yet.
Models are still showing Richard affecting FL next week but ahead of Richard will come a tremendous amount of rain for the FL Penisula. Some models are indicating 6 to 12" of rain next week. Wednesday on FL will get soaked with such a negatively tilted trough diving into the western gulf.
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:



i dunno about that look at the vorticity on this link--

Link

it's showing directly east now from her eyewall


Vorticity location is definitely an important factor.

But the steering currents are just too strong.

Paula is still moving N at 9. And in order to meet her forecast point, she's going to have to trend to the vorticity, and very soon.

I just do not see it happening, but what the hell do I know? I'm just a dummy with no college degree :D
models seven days from now. L could be the leftovers of paula
Quoting KennyNebraska:


And with the 2nd bigger trough coming in, I'm wondering what conditions we'll find in the GoM a week from now.

It will be interesting to see what this giant slug of moisture from the south does to Paula. If she circles around again, it will be like nothing I've ever seen in the northern Caribbean/Southern GOM in all my years of watching these things.

I doubt that eventual western influx of moisture will arrive in time to assist a northerly journey, which may assist in a weaker loop de loop path, but that southern stream is closing in fast, and should be quite a shot in the arm. The stronger she gets, the more likely she'll pull on out, IMO.

If she manages to circle around again, this could be quite a historical situation.

Speaking of a possible loop de loop, judging from the recent [Cancun radar imagery,] she's stalling out.

Quoting 7544:
wouldnt the blob to gthe south of paula kinda feed her as the shear tries to kill her but could get her energy back from the blob and couldnt it push her more north before the turn happen this blob k just came in the pic could it be a player now ? and block the early east turn . shes still going north tho tia

I don't think so. The steering current of the subropical ridge to her east is the primary driving force right now. She's riding around the western periphery of it and will begin treking in a more NNE direction.
Anybody who downcast the rest of the season should get stoned as it looks like the pattern is setting up starting next that would favor multiple Western Caribbean developements.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

She'll probably stay a bit north of the NHC projected forecast track, but still has to completely clear any landmass friction with the rugged Terrain of Cuba is she proves to remain a TS heading into the FL straits. I'm just not completely onboard that that will happen. If it does, she is a tiny system, and shear will wreak havok on her.

Now the staying south of Cuba and coming back in for another loop is interesting, as several of the models last evening were alutting to.

Either way it's a tough forecast to gauge, and no one is out of the woods just yet.



lmao...so the sun is rising here in Mobile and guess what it's foggy...

just goes to show ya how i feel lol
1037. lennit
she has definitely increased in forward speed went .6 deg north in 3 hours thats around 12 mph
1038. pottery
Good Morning all.
Interesting set-up with Paula this morning.
Still a lot of variables with track.
But intensity looks like it will start to fall off soon.

Hot and dry and hazy here this morning.
But we did have .25" of rain yesterday....
Currently 85f
pressure 1013
Sweaty.....
here is another question (or subject to ponder).


what if she went north and sheared apart. would that change the GOM into a more conducive environment if Richard was to form and follow her path? In all honesty if that huge blob can pull itself together it would have way more kinetic energy than paula ever had. lots of potential energy down there right now...

1040. BanTech
Quoting KennyNebraska:
There is no way in God's green earth that Paula is going to take the current track of the NHC. That hurricane (weakened) is going to hit Key West / Ft. Myers head-on.

That's right. I said it.

My basis for making this claim is the water vapor loop. The blob south and east of Paula is moving at a nice clip and right into the area Paula is supposed to take a parallel course.

I am telling ya. There is no freaking way that hurricane makes such a hard turn so soon.


Quoted for preservation.
When it follows the NHC track, I'll repost it just for kicks.

That's right. I said it.
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning all.
Interesting set-up with Paula this morning.
Still a lot of variables with track.
But intensity looks like it will start to fall off soon.

Hot and dry and hazy here this morning.
But we did have .25" of rain yesterday....
Currently 85f
pressure 1013
Sweaty.....


Makes me glad I live in the mid latitudes, if just barely. Good morning all.
1042. 7544
so if the turn doent happen soon like the next 6 hrs we could see a dif track ?

what time is the next recon thanks
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning all.
Interesting set-up with Paula this morning.
Still a lot of variables with track.
But intensity looks like it will start to fall off soon.

Hot and dry and hazy here this morning.
But we did have .25" of rain yesterday....
Currently 85f
pressure 1013
Sweaty.....

Morning Pottery,

I think the intensity might even be beginning to tapper off as we speak. Nonetheless, we've seen her peak.
It looks like some of that surge of moisture/energy is starting to be drawn up into Paula.
1045. shikori


wat does this look like direction wise, seems to slow a little in the last 30
the trough over texas/la is feeding her on her southwest quad at the 500-850 mb level look.


Link
1047. pottery
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


Makes me glad I live in the mid latitudes, if just barely. Good morning all.

Yep!
Everywhere has it's advantages...
Quoting shikori:


wat does this look like direction wise, seems to slow a little in the last 30

I think she's planting her feet about about to pivot eastward. I have a feeling the shift to the NE is imminent
Quoting shikori:


wat does this look like direction wise, seems to slow a little in the last 30


agreed., in fact it looks like she is coming to a dead stop and moving ever so slightly to the west in the last 2 frames
Quoting FLstormwarning:
Anybody who downcast the rest of the season should get stoned as it looks like the pattern is setting up starting next that would favor multiple Western Caribbean developements.


I agree
1051. pottery
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Morning Pottery,

I think the intensity might even be beginning to tapper off as we speak. Nonetheless, we've seen her peak.

Agree.
But I would not bet on it.
Not this year.
It's been too weird.......
Quoting BanTech:


Quoted for preservation.
When it follows the NHC track, I'll repost it just for kicks.

That's right. I said it.


Post it if my prediction turns out right, too...so I can get my jollies off.

Don't be so selfish with your offers! :)
1054. 7544
anyone know when is the next recon going tia

looks like in th radar she lost the eye and gained it back and is tighten up again and still going north in the last frame maybe a stall about to begin here
Quoting pottery:

Agree.
But I would not bet on it.
Not this year.
It's been too weird.......

No way I'd bet on it...especially not this year. Exactly
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:


agreed., in fact it looks like she is coming to a dead stop and moving ever so slightly to the west in the last 2 frames


I agree. I saw the slight tilt west. Is she slowing down to make the turn north? Humm
Quoting cat5hurricane:



something is happening with 99L. look at how the winds shearing off from Paula are feeding right back underneath 99L. (Cat5's post #1053)

that is what Otto did to form Paula.
http://www.cancunmx.com/cancunradar.htm

Presentation on cancun radar is more impressive than 3 hours ago. Definitely has slowed too.

1060. 7544
99l ????
1061. pottery
Quoting cat5hurricane:

No way I'd bet on it...especially not this year. Exactly

The large area of heavy convection to the south east is gaining on Paula.
If some of the models that showed P. making a loop come into play, she will collide with that????
Then what?????????
Quoting 7544:
99l ????



yeah dont wanna call it richard, i know it hasnt been named as an invest but if it was...wouldn;t it be 99L?
Quoting FLstormwarning:
Models are still showing Richard affecting FL next week but ahead of Richard will come a tremendous amount of rain for the FL Penisula. Some models are indicating 6 to 12" of rain next week. Wednesday on FL will get soaked with such a negatively tilted trough diving into the western gulf.


D you have a link to that? I can't find anything that says we are getting any rain next week. Lord knows we could use it.
1064. BanTech
Quoting KennyNebraska:


Post it if my prediction turns out right, too...so I can get my jollies off.

Don't be so selfish with your offers! :)


Nah....I'm sure you'll be thumping your e-chest if that happens.
Quoting pottery:

The large area of heavy convection to the south east is gaining on Paula.
If some of the models that showed P. making a loop come into play, she will collide with that????
Then what?????????

DOOM
1066. pottery
Quoting cat5hurricane:

DOOM

Only for you.
That's the advantage of living HERE!
LOL
1067. IKE
Quoting cat5hurricane:

DOOM


lol

it actually looks like her convection is deepening quickly as 99L reaches out towards her southeast quad. she may be feeding off of him because where else is her convection going to come from to do that considering how small she is and how much shear she is beginning to run into....
1069. 7544
paula is starting to slowwwwwwwwwwww down maybe getting ready to stall here
with her one good eye maybe she can see the shear and avoid it.
Surf mom. Keep in mind that it takes 10 hours for a swell to reach the coast after you detect it on the 003 buoy. Should see an 8 or 9 sec, period as a cue.
1072. divdog
Quoting cat5hurricane:

I think she's planting her feet about about to pivot eastward. I have a feeling the shift to the NE is imminent
I agree .. cloudtops are getting blown off to the northeast .. cold front headed down after passing thru panhandle this morning. All sign point to ne/ene turn down the road. System is not looking so hot at the moment. It is in need of help or winds will be dropping soon.
1073. FLdewey
It's a storm filled night on the Discovery channel tonight. At 9pm mythbusters tests out weather myths (including a wind test of the TIV2 and the "storm suit") At 10pm it's the premiere of Storm Chasers.

Previews have been posted on MY BLOG

Fruit Loop continues to lean to the right...

Quoting divdog:
I agree .. cloudtops are getting blown off to the northeast .. cold front headed down after passing thru panhandle this morning. All sign point to ne/ene turn down the road. System is not looking so hot at the moment. It is in need of help or winds will be dropping soon.



yes she may be getting help from the huge squall from her southeast quad. here is the overall atlantic water vapor loop

notice how purples and blues are deepening in her southern quads in the past couple of hours.

Link
Quoting Greenizz:


D you have a link to that? I can't find anything that says we are getting any rain next week. Lord knows we could use it.


I have it for you! Notice the ULL and the flow from the deep tropics over FL. He is right.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/fp0_240.shtml
hey what 99L oh you mean this 99L AL,99 2010101312 0 BEST 15.5N 81.5W 25 1007 DB
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey what 99L oh you mean this 99L AL,99 2010101312 0 BEST 15.5N 81.5W 25 1007 DB


What 99L already?
1078. pottery
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey what 99L oh you mean this 99L AL,99 2010101312 0 BEST 15.5N 81.5W 25 1007 DB

REALY???
Quoting Jeff9641:


I have it for you! Notice the ULL and the flow from the deep tropics over FL. He is right.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/fp0_240.shtml



look at what is brewing in the caribbean to the south in that 240 hr you posted. don't trust the long range models but still. plus moisture levels are way up for the eastern GOM at that time.
1080. 7544
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey what 99L oh you mean this 99L AL,99 2010101312 0 BEST 15.5N 81.5W 25 1007 DB


opps surpise surpise aka richard ??
There is no 99L. At least no file of it on the ATCF site.
Paula is about ready to meet her fate. Decapitation is soon to occur right befote oir eyes.
Quoting FLdewey:
It's a storm filled night on the Discovery channel tonight. At 9pm mythbusters tests out weather myths (including a wind text of the TIV2 and the "storm suit") At 10pm it's the premiere of Storm Chasers.

Previews have been posted on MY BLOG

Fruit Loop continues to lean to the right...



I very much appreciated this timely post. I logged into DirecTV on the internet, scrolled to tonight on Channel 278, and set my HD DVR to record both programs. Many thanks! :)
1084. pottery
So, what is the pressure tendency for 99L in the next 6 hrs?
This is going to throw the cats among the pigeons.........
1085. 7544
no 99l on the navy site not yet anyway lol
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:



look at what is brewing in the caribbean to the south in that 240 hr you posted. don't trust the long range models but still. plus moisture levels are way up for the eastern GOM at that time.


Yeah JB and Frank Strait on Accuweather both agree the system next week could be much larger and stronger than Paula. Even if we don't get a tropical system next we still will see lots and lots of rain from the Gulf coast of TX to FL so much of the deep south will see a resugence of 70 degree dewpoints with the tropical plum setting up.
Quoting pottery:
So, what is the pressure tendency for 99L in the next 6 hrs?
This is going to throw the cats among the pigeons.........


There is no 99L.....
Quoting pottery:

REALY???


Its all your fault... you may have to make a sacrifice of one bottle (a full one, not a empty bottle) to the Sea gods... your the one who called the season over.
Good morning, everyone. Looks like Paula is being diffucult in forecasting where she will go.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Yeah JB and Frank Strait on Accuweather both agree the system next week could be much larger and stronger than Paula. Even if we don't get a tropical system next we still will see lots and lots of rain from the Gulf coast of TX to FL so much of the deep south will see a resugence of 70 degree dewpoints with the tropical plum setting up.


plus add in the pattern of the conveyor belt recycling energy back into the caribbean and maybe this really is......DOOM lol
1092. pottery
Quoting Orcasystems:


Its all your fault... you may have to make a sacrifice of one bottle (a full one, not a empty bottle) to the Sea gods... your the one who called the season over.

I wish you would stop reminding me of that.
The entire issue is costing me, big time, in full bottles.
sigh...
Quoting divdog:
I agree .. cloudtops are getting blown off to the northeast .. cold front headed down after passing thru panhandle this morning. All sign point to ne/ene turn down the road. System is not looking so hot at the moment. It is in need of help or winds will be dropping soon.

Exactly
There is no Invest 99L
1095. divdog
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey what 99L oh you mean this 99L AL,99 2010101312 0 BEST 15.5N 81.5W 25 1007 DB
link please
I think Paula will go south of Cuba or even die down. Just my opinion.
1097. FLdewey
Quoting KennyNebraska:


I very much appreciated this timely post. I logged into DirecTV on the internet, scrolled to tonight on Channel 278, and set my HD DVR to record both programs. Many thanks! :)

Isn't technology awesome?
1098. 7544
99l not official ?
If Wind Shear & Dry Air weren't there, along with the trof, we would likely have FL residents comparing for a Major hurricane.

It just reminds you how lucky we have been this season. If if Paula makes landfall on FL, it will be no where as strong.
1100. 34chip
Looks like rain for the key west and the keys for us. I still think it will go between cuba and the keys.
1101. Jax82
1103. 7544
hmm paulas gaining more convction at this hour shear may give her a little more burst too
OT - the 12th Chilean miner is in the rescue cage...
hey look at that spin in the atlantic out there past the wayward isles. it certainly looks like that wave is getting some circulation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-wv.html

Link
1106. Grothar
1107. divdog
So did wunderkidcayman make up 99l ??
Quoting Jeff9641:


Yeah JB and Frank Strait on Accuweather both agree the system next week could be much larger and stronger than Paula. Even if we don't get a tropical system next we still will see lots and lots of rain from the Gulf coast of TX to FL so much of the deep south will see a resugence of 70 degree dewpoints with the tropical plum setting up.


What will be bringing the rain to the TX/LA area?
Quoting divdog:
So did wunderkidcayman make up 99l ??


To see if you were paying attention
Quoting aislinnpaps:


What will be bringing the rain to the TX/LA area?


An ULL as a big dip in the Jetstream moves in is what will produce your rainfall.
Quoting Jeff9641:


An ULL as a big dip in the Jetstream moves in is what will produce your rainfall.


Thank you. I just turned on TWC and saw it. We need rain desperately.
1112. bwi
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:
hey look at that spin in the atlantic out there past the wayward isles. it certainly looks like that wave is getting some circulation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-wv.html

Link


"wayward" isles -- awesome new term.
This pattern change next week may also bring Severe Weather to my area (DFW area) by next Tuesday Night - Wednesday Night.
Quoting bwi:


"wayward" isles -- awesome new term.


haha oops i mistyped windward lol im spacey this morning and my head is running all these potential scenarios over and over....i knew that political science class in college about game theory would come back to haunt me...lol
There was yet another day of record warmth in the US yesterday; according to HAMweather, there were 123 record highs or high minimums, as opposed to just 5 record lows. Over the past two days, there have been 394 record highs or high minimums, and just 7 record lows or low maximums; for the past three days, that ratio is 719 to 19; and over the past four days, warm records have outnumbered cool records by a highly lopsided 1,028 to 34.

Enjoy it while it lasts; it's bound to go away sooner or later... :-)
1116. Jax82
Radar of Paula


Intensity Forecast
1117. WxLogic
Paula not doing so bad for a downward MJO:



Upward MJO should be arriving by late next week.



Also by late next week time NAO should remain in the negative region which will keep ridging across the W ATL and assist MJO on building moisture/energy on the W Carib sea and GOM (as it is transferred from the Carib into the GOM and finally US). Of course assuming the pattern holds.
1118. divdog
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Thank you. I just turned on TWC and saw it. We need rain desperately.
dont count on much rain. one day of rain forecast in the next 10 from houston to the panhandle. pretty much normal for this time of the year on the northern gulf coast.
Paula's probability of tropical storm winds to 69 hours lead
That 99L is a fake.. It's an older fix from 98L... 15.5N, ~81W... The location of the initialization of 98L.
1121. bwi
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:


haha oops i mistyped windward lol im spacey this morning and my head is running all these potential scenarios over and over....i knew that political science class in college about game theory would come back to haunt me...lol


I like it though. That circulation on water vapor out in the Atlantic is in the upper levels -- not a threat to build down to the surface in my opinion.
1122. 7544
did she just stall ?
1123. Buhdog
Moisture streaming into SWFL this morning...Link
1124. divdog
Quoting HurricaneFCast:
That 99L is a fake.. It's an older fix from 98L... 15.5N, ~81W... The location of the initialization of 98L.
I thought when he/she posted it and ran that it was crap. kids.. sheeez
Quoting WxLogic:
Paula not doing so bad for a downward MJO:



Upward MJO should be arriving by late next week.



Also by late next week time NAO should remain in the negative region which will keep ridging across the W ATL and assist MJO on building moisture/energy on the W Carib sea and GOM (as it is transferred from the Carib into the GOM and finally US). Of course assuming the pattern holds.



look at how the nao tanks in the next 5-10 days....DOOM lol j.k
Quoting WxLogic:
Paula not doing so bad for a downward MJO:



Upward MJO should be arriving by late next week.



Also by late next week time NAO should remain in the negative region which will keep ridging across the W ATL and assist MJO on building moisture/energy on the W Carib sea and GOM (as it is transferred from the Carib into the GOM and finally US). Of course assuming the pattern holds.


Here is the forecast for Orlando Next Friday. Rain actually starts Wednesday and goes thru the weekend.

Day & Night Hourly Forecast Chance of Precipitation Rain
Hi 82° RealFeel® 90° Day

E at 2 mph
Gusts: 5 mph
Rain
Max UV Index: 5 (moderate)
Thunderstorm Probability: 69%
Amount of Precipitation: 0.40 in
Amount of Rain: 0.40 in
Amount of Snow: 0.0 in
Amount of Ice: 0.00 in
Hours of Precipitation: 3 hrs
Hours of Rain: 3 hrs
Showers
Lo 67° RealFeel® 68° Night

ENE at 5 mph
Gusts: 6 mph
A couple of evening showers; otherwise, considerable clouds
Max UV Index: N/A
Thunderstorm Probability: 56%
Amount of Precipitation: 0.31 in
Amount of Rain: 0.31 in
Amount of Snow: 0.0 in
Amount of Ice: 0.00 in
Hours of Precipitation: 3 hrs
Hours of Rain: 3 hrs
1127. Jax82
Good Morning.....Paula looking a little more ragged this morning. The weaker she is, the more pronounced her turn into Cuba will be..As such, she may end up dissipating over Western Cuba over the next 48 hours.
1129. WxLogic
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:



look at how the nao tanks in the next 5-10 days....DOOM lol j.k


Jeje... yeah we could have a deep TROF developing far enough south to pull quite a bit of Caribbean moisture N into the GOM.
Quoting 7544:
did she just stall ?

She definitely slowed down. I think this is her catching her breath before she pivots off NNE & the NE. I really feel this shift is right on our heals. Afterall, her upper-most cloud tops are being sheared off to the northeast.
Quoting WxLogic:


Jeje... yeah we could have a deep TROF developing far enough south to pull quite a bit of Caribbean moisture N into the GOM.


Meaning like this!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/fp0_264.shtml
1132. WxLogic
Quoting Jeff9641:


Here is the forecast for Orlando Next Friday. Rain actually starts Wednesday and goes thru the weekend.

Day & Night Hourly Forecast Chance of Precipitation Rain
Hi 82° RealFeel® 90° Day

E at 2 mph
Gusts: 5 mph
Rain
Max UV Index: 5 (moderate)
Thunderstorm Probability: 69%
Amount of Precipitation: 0.40 in
Amount of Rain: 0.40 in
Amount of Snow: 0.0 in
Amount of Ice: 0.00 in
Hours of Precipitation: 3 hrs
Hours of Rain: 3 hrs
Showers
Lo 67° RealFeel® 68° Night

ENE at 5 mph
Gusts: 6 mph
A couple of evening showers; otherwise, considerable clouds
Max UV Index: N/A
Thunderstorm Probability: 56%
Amount of Precipitation: 0.31 in
Amount of Rain: 0.31 in
Amount of Snow: 0.0 in
Amount of Ice: 0.00 in
Hours of Precipitation: 3 hrs
Hours of Rain: 3 hrs


I sure hope we get some rain soon... water bill is on the rise.
1133. WxLogic
Quoting Jeff9641:


Meaning like this!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/fp0_264.shtml


More or less... I guess that's a good representation.
Weatherchannel gurus on tropical update calling for minimal strength TS no worries for South florida...rain and wind event...how much rain is possible??? are they being too conservative for a storm this time of year with SST where they are?? I understand the dry ait combo shear factor...just wondering???
I think Paula is now turning NE. Either this is a jog or the turn has now started.
Regardless of where she goes, she looks good now, and ATCF said less than an hour ago that her winds were still at 85 knots:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image
If Paula is now turning then she will miss Cuba and stay bottled up in the Caribbean.
Quoting toddbizz:
Weatherchannel gurus on tropical update calling for minimal strength TS no worries for South florida...rain and wind event...how much rain is possible??? are they being too conservative for a storm this time of year with SST where they are?? I understand the dry ait combo shear factor...just wondering???

Only thing I could think of is because of her tiny size. Now if this thing spanned even half of what Igor was, rainfall & flash flooding would be a greater threat.
Quoting Buhdog:
Moisture streaming into SWFL this morning...Link

This moisture is not from Paula correct?
I can't believe Revis is hurt again...
Quoting Jeff9641:
I think Paula is now turning NE. Either this is a jog or the turn has now started.

She could even traverse Cuba for a hundred miles and really get messed up.
Quoting Jax82:


The XTRP model is coming more in line with consensus.
Quoting toddbizz:
I can't believe Revis is hurt again...

Yeah, especially after that stunt he pulled all preseason. Although he was vastly underpaid at the time.
Quoting oracle28:


The XTRP model is coming more in line with consensus.


ROFL.. you think :)
Some observations:

The satellite presentation looks a bit ragged, but on the radar, she still looks symmetrical with a well-defined eye. She should be able to maintain her strength or even strengthen a little bit this morning before steady weakening begins later today.

She is slowing down and probably even turning a bit NE right now as seen on the Cancun radar. If this is the turn, she should be moving very close to the NHC track or maybe just a bit north of it through the Florida straights.

She's so small that even extreme south Florida will barely notice there's a storm that close unless there's a N deviation in the track.
Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFL.. you think :)


Yes, but it still has a westward bias, but not as much as yesterday's run.
high wind shear north of the storm over 60 knons
Quoting ParanoidAndroid:
Some observations:

The satellite presentation looks a bit ragged, but on the radar, she still looks symmetrical with a well-defined eye. She should be able to maintain her strength or even strengthen a little bit this morning before steady weakening begins later today.

She is slowing down and probably even turning a bit NE right now as seen on the Cancun radar. If this is the turn, she should be moving very close to the NHC track or maybe just a bit north of it through the Florida straights.

She's so small that even extreme south Florida will barely notice there's a storm that close unless there's a N deviation in the track.

Satellite imagery isn't all that impressive when her cloud tops are being blown off to the northeast. Shear will eventually overtake if it hasn't already. Weakening has commenced.