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Paula dying; Zambia records its hottest temperature in history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:35 PM GMT on October 15, 2010

There's not much left of Tropical Depression Paula, which continues to weaken as wind shear of 35 - 40 knots tears the storm apart. Satellite imagery shows Paula has the classic appearance of a storm experiencing high wind shear--a low-level center exposed to view, with all the heavy thunderstorm activity pushed to the northeast side by powerful upper-level winds from the southwest. Paula caused only minor flooding and very little damage in Mexico, Cuba, and the Florida Keys. Considering that most Category 2 hurricanes that pass through the Yucatan Channel end up getting their names retired, we got very fortunate with Paula. Havana, Cuba reported sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 54, at 7pm local time last night, and received heavy rain that caused moderate street flooding. The wind and rain knocked out power to most of the city and felled over 400 trees. Some isolated heavy rains affected the Florida Keys, with Key West picking up 1.40" inches of rain. Paula will bring some heavy rain showers to Andros Island in the Bahamas today, but the storm is not likely to cause any more flooding problems. High wind shear should be able to completely destroy Paula by Saturday morning.


Figure 1. Visible MODIS image from NASA's Terra satellite of Paula at 12:05pm EDT October 14, 2010, as Paula was approaching Havana, Cuba. Image credit: NASA.

New Caribbean disturbance
Heavy thunderstorm activity is currently limited over the southern Caribbean waters just north of Panama, but the latest 2am EDT (6Z) NOGAPS and GFS model runs continue to predict the formation of a tropical depression in the region 4 - 5 days from now. The storm is predicted to move northwest or northwards towards the Cayman Islands and Jamaica once it forms. The GFS model has been pretty reliable in forecasting the genesis of new tropical depressions this year, and the fact that we have two major models predicting the formation of a new Caribbean tropical depression next week is worth paying attention to.

Typhoon Megi
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Megi has attained Category 2 strength, and is predicted to intensify into a 150 mph supertyphoon that will strike the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Sunday night or Monday morning. If this forecast verifies, Megi would be the strongest tropical cyclone to strike land globally in 2010. The globe has had an unusually low number of landfalling major hurricanes this year. Only one Category 4 or stronger storm has hit land--Tropical Cyclone Tomas, which hit Fiji on March 15 as a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Tomas killed 3 people and did $45 million in damage to Fiji, and was the strongest storm to hit Fiji since Cyclone Bebe in 1972. The only other major tropical cyclones in 2010 to make landfall were Tropical Cyclone Oli, which passed through French Polynesia on February 5 as a Category 3 storm; Tropical Cyclone Rene, which hit Tonga in the South Pacific as a Category 3 storm on February 15; Typhoon Fanapi, which hit Taiwan on September 19 as a Category 3 storm; and Hurricane Karl, which hit Mexico near Verzcruz on September 17 as a Category 3 hurricane.

Zambia hits an all-time record 42.4°C (108.3°F)
Zambia recorded its hottest temperature in history Wednesday, October 13, when the mercury hit 42.4°C (108.3°F) in Mfuwe. The previous record was 42.3°C (108.1°F) set on November 17, 2005 in Mfuwe. Zambia is near the Equator, and the timing of the rainy season and dry season determines when all-time maximum and minimum temperatures can be set. It turns out that the months of September, October, and November mark a transition period into Zambia's rainy season, and are the only months of the year that all-time record high temperatures are likely to occur (thanks go to Maximiliano Herrera for pointing this out.) Zambia is the 18th nation to record a hottest all-time temperature this year, which is a new record. The year 2007 is in second place, with 15 such records. No nations have recorded an all-time coldest temperature so far this year; I regret erroneously reporting earlier in my blog that Guinea had done so. Guinea actually had its coldest temperature in history last year, on January 9, 2009, when the mercury hit 1.4°C (34.5°F) at Mali-ville in the Labe region. The full updated list of national heat records set in 2010 is below; my source for extreme weather records is the excellent book Extreme Weather by Christopher C. Burt, who is now a featured blogger on wunderground. I thank Chris and weather record researchers Maximiliano Herrera and Howard Rainford for their assistance identifying this year's new extreme temperature records.


Figure 2. Climate Central put together a nice graphic showing the nations that have set new extreme heat records in 2010, which I've updated to include Zambia.

National heat records set in 2010
Bolivia tied its all-time hottest temperature mark on October 29, when the mercury hit 46.7°C (116.1°F) at Villamontes. This ties the record set in Villamontes on three other dates: November 9, 2007, November 1980, and December 1980.

Zambia recorded its hottest temperature in history Wednesday, October 13, when the mercury hit 42.4°C (108.3°F) in Mfuwe. The previous record was 42.3°C (108.1°F) set on November 17, 2005 in Mfuwe.

Belarus recorded its hottest temperature in its history on August 6, 2010, when the mercury hit 38.9°C (102.0°F) in Gorky. The previous record was 38.0°C (100.4°F) set at Vasiliyevichy on Aug. 20, 1946.

Ukraine recorded its hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 42.0°C (107.6°F) at Lukhansk on August 12, 2010. The previous record was set at the same location on August 1, 2010--41.3°C (106.3°F). Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk.

Cyprus recorded its hottest temperature in its history on August 1, 2010 when the mercury hit 46.6°C (115.9°F) at Lefconica. The old record for Cyprus was 44.4°C (111.9°F) at Lefkosia in August 1956. An older record of 46.6°C from July 1888 was reported from Nicosia, but is of questionable reliability.

Finland recorded its hottest temperature on July 29, 2010, when the mercury hit 37.2°C (99°F) at Joensuu. The old (undisputed) record was 95°F (35°C) at Jyvaskyla on July 9, 1914. The previous official record was 35.9°C at Turku in July 1914, but this reading has been disputed by weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera as being unreliable due improper siting of the instrument too close to tall buildings.

Qatar had its hottest temperature in history on July 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 50.4°C (122.7°F) at Doha Airport. The previous record was 49.6°C in July 2000 at the same location. There are other stations in Qatar,but only the Doha International Airport has reliable data.

Russia had its hottest temperature in history on July 12, when the mercury rose to 45.4°C (113.7°F) at the Utta hydrological station in the Kalmykia Republic, in the European portion of Russia near the Kazakhstan border. This station is not under control of the Russian meteorological service, and may not be 100% reliable. A reading of 44.0°C (111.2°F) was also recorded in Yashkul, Kalmykia Republic, on July 11. The previous hottest temperature in Russia (not including the former Soviet republics) at a non-automated station was the 43.8°C (110.8°F) reading measured at Alexander Gaj, Kalmykia Republic, on August 6, 1940. The previous hottest temperature at an automated station was 45.0°C recorded in August 1940 at El'ton. The remarkable heat in Russia this year has not been limited just to the European portion of the country--the Asian portion of Russia also recorded its hottest temperature in history this year, a 42.7°C (108.9°F) reading at Ust Kara, in the Chita Republic on June 27. The 42.3°C (108.1°F) reading on June 25 at Belogorsk, near the Amur River border with China, also beat the old record for the Asian portion of Russia. The previous record for the Asian portion of Russia was 41.7°C (107.1°F) at Aksha on July 21, 2004.

Sudan recorded its hottest temperature in its history on June 22 when the mercury rose to 49.7°C (121.5°F) at Dongola. The previous record was 49.5°C (121.1°F) set in July 1987 in Aba Hamed.

Niger tied its record for hottest day in history on June 22, 2010, when the temperature reached 47.1°C (116.8°F) at Bilma. That record stood for just one day, as Bilma broke the record again on June 23, when the mercury topped out at 48.2°C (118.8°F). The previous record was 47.1°C on May 24, 1998, also at Bilma.

Saudi Arabia had its hottest temperature ever on June 22, 2010, with a reading of 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Jeddah, the second largest city in Saudi Arabia. The previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F), at Abqaiq, date unknown. The record heat was accompanied by a sandstorm, which caused eight power plants to go offline, resulting in blackouts to several Saudi cities.

Chad had its hottest day in history on June 22, 2010, when the temperature reached 47.6°C (117.7°F) at Faya. The previous record was 47.4°C (117.3°F) at Faya on June 3 and June 9, 1961, but old readings at this station, particularly in the 1950s, were affected by over-exposure of the instrument to sun.

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature in history on June 15 in Abdaly, according to the Kuwait Met office. The mercury hit 52.6°C (126.7°F). Kuwait's previous all-time hottest temperature was 51.9°C (125.4°F), on July 27,2007, at Abdaly. Temperatures reached 51°C (123.8°F) in the capital of Kuwait City on June 15, 2010. There were some readings as high as 54°C at Mitribah this summer, but the intrument there was found to be out of calibration.

Iraq had its hottest day in history on June 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Basra. Iraq's previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F) set August 8, 1937, in Ash Shu'aybah.

Pakistan had its hottest temperature in history on May 26, when the mercury hit an astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) at the town of MohenjuDaro, according to the Pakistani Meteorological Department. While this temperature reading must be reviewed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for authenticity, not only is the 128.3°F reading the hottest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, it is the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded on the continent of Asia. The old Pakistani record was 52.8°C (127°F) at Jacobabad in 1919.

Myanmar (Burma) had its hottest temperature in its recorded history on May 14, when the mercury hit 47.2°C (117.0°F) in Myinmu. This broke the record of 47.0°C set at the same location two days previous (May 12.) Myanmar's previous hottest temperature was 46.0°C (114.4°F) at Magwe in May, 1980. According to Chris Burt, author of the authoritative weather records book Extreme Weather, the 47.2°C measured this year is the hottest temperature in Southeast Asia history.

Ascension Island (St. Helena, a U.K. Territory) had its hottest temperature in history on March 25, 2010, when the mercury hit 34.9°C (94.8°F) at Georgetown. The previous record was 34.0°C (93.2°F) at Georgetown in April 2003, exact day unknown.

The Solomon Islands had their hottest temperature in history on February 1, 2010, when the mercury hit 36.1°C (97°F) at Honiara Henderson. The previous record for the Solomon Islands was 35.6°C (96.0°F) at Honaiara, date unknown.

Colombia had its hottest reliably measured temperature in history on January 24, 2010, when Puerto Salgar hit 42.3°C (108°F). The previous record was 42.0°C (107.6°F) at El Salto in March 1988 and April 1998 (exact day unknown.)

Also Notable
China set its all-time heat record for an inhabited place on June 20, 2010, when the mercury hit 48.7°C (119.7°F) at Toyoq. The all-time heat record for China is 49.7°C (121.5°F) on August 3, 2008 at the Aydingkol automatic weather station at the uninhabited Ading Lake in the Turfan Depression in Northwest China.

Martinique, an island in the Caribbean that is a French territory, set what may be its hottest reliably measured temperature record in September, when the mercury hit 36.2°C (97.2°F) at Francois Chopotte. The current all-time record is 36.5°C (97.7°F) in April 1983 at St. Pierre Observatory, but this measurement was taken with older equipment that may not be reliable.

The occupied west bank of Palestine, the portion of Israel that declared independence in 1988 but is not recognized by all nations as a sovereign country, recorded its hottest temperature in history on August 7, 2010, when the temperature hit 51.4°C (124.5°F) at Kibbutz Almog (also called Qalya or Kalya) in the Jordan Valley. The previous record for this portion of Israel was set on June 22, 1942, at the same location.

All-time national heat records were missed by 1°C or less in many other nations this summer, including the Azores, Morocco, Estonia, and Latvia.

Extensive credit for researching these records goes to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, who maintains a comprehensive set of extreme temperature records on his web site.

Next update
I'll have an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Heat Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I can see the eye, and the winner is... PIN!
As soon as the TUTT low off to the west that's extending the trough to the SW begins to weaken & loosens up the strain on his NW quadrant, we're going to see a nice period of RI with him.

Click Here to Animate
Quoting Vincent4989:
I can see the eye, and the winner is... PIN!
Vin where are u located? I think u mentioned where Megi was going. I hope not ... (re-write)if so you will I hope you'll be ok. It'd be awesome if you could post a map where u live if thats the case!!
Levi, how is school going?

And whats your opinion on "Richard"?
Quoting hydrus:
Ya know, I am going to be honest and direct..It DOES make sense having a reasonable debate about global warming here..We are discussing the formation of giant steam engines or steam entities , things that feed and energize on WARM water!!!!...Why there is whining and complaining over this? It is almost stupid not to talk about...Hell, even the good Doctor himself puts an elaborate post up occasionally....And they actually bitch him out for it!!!!! Even when there are full aware that it is his blog..

I totally agree Hydrus. I don't see anything wrong with it since the Doc did make mention of it himself afterall. People are always going to find fault with something even if this world was perfect.

And I agree, GW (or the lack thereof...whichever side you take) wholeheartedly contributes to the dynamics of the discussion of tropical weather & any kind of weather on a global level for that matter.
cough cough

Quoting KerryInNOLA:
That was said with a "poetic license" to help dramatize the urgency of GW. You REALLY thought I owned it?


Ha,

My take on this GW thing is simple! Yes man has some to do with it. Some of it is natural cycles. Man does have a record of messing things up. Acid rain from the coal plants in the 70's, to the killing of are wetlands here in La. Not to mention the number of nuclear bombs set off in the last century. We will eventually rape the lands and seas till there is nothing left. However, unless we go back to the days of before the industrial revolution, there will be no answer. Anyone want to use an outhouse or give up your computer? Man thinks he can solve anything, but nature solves it for us. Look at it this way, gas drops from $4 to $2 a gallon and we have the largest spill in history plus a few other spills. Why, cause of cutting back and trying to save more money. Again, man may or not be causing global warming, but we sure can screw alot of things up!
Quoting Chicklit:
cough cough


I know..right 65 in the am here.... YAHOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting Chicklit:
cough cough



I know what ya mean, when you aren't used to 25% humidity it makes the ole sinuses dry lol:)
thinking of the commercial, ' i can see your mouth flappin' but i can't hear a thing.' it occurs to me, i haven't said a bloody thing all day.
Quoting 954FtLCane:
Vin where are u located? I think u mentioned where Megi was going. I hope not ... (re-write)if so you will I hope you'll be ok. It'd be awesome if you could post a map where u live if thats the case!!

Philippines :(
Quoting SuperTyphoonLionrock:
Royal Society Humiliated by Global Warming Basic Math Error

"Top international experts prove British numbers on carbon dioxide are wrong. Royal Society blunder grossly exaggerates climate impact."


That's reaching, friend: directing folks to an article on a pay-to-write website (with a reputation as a bit of a scam) that freely quotes from Big Energy shills? I don't think so... ;-)
Quoting Vincent4989:

Lol
And going for pinhole eye
Yes..YES!! The mighty and omnipotent pin-hole eye baby...It rules everything that has ever existed in the universe, and everything that will come to be....Basically,.Pin-hole=God..Link It looks Godly anyway..lol
Quoting doorman79:


I know what ya mean, when you aren't used to 25% humidity it makes the ole sinuses dry lol:)


Oh yeah, i've been dealing with sinus headaches all week.
Quoting Chicklit:
thinking of the commercial, ' i can see your mouth flappin' but i can't hear a thing.' it occurs to me, i haven't said a bloody thing all day.


Wish you the best Chicklit!!!
Quoting hydrus:
Yes..YES!! The mighty and omnipotent pin-hole eye baby...It rules everything that has ever existed in the universe, and everything that will come to be....Basically,.Pin-hole=God..


ROFL PinHoleGod
Sure plays a mean pin ball.
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
GW is on topic, since Dr M talked about it in his post today. Read the Rules of the Blog. HeHeHeHe


Lets get a little more specific, he didn't mention global warming. He just said records are being broken. For all we know, someone could just have left the hair dryer on the thermometer.
Quoting Vincent4989:

Philippines :(

I'm so sorry we will pray for you....hopefully it misses you.
Quoting hydrus:
Yes..YES!! The mighty and omnipotent pin-hole eye baby...It rules everything that has ever existed in the universe, and everything that will come to be....Basically,.Pin-hole=God..

Someone's drinking the pinhole koolaid. Hat's off to the pinhole.
Quoting doorman79:


Look at it this way, gas drops from $4 to $2 a gallon and we have the largest spill in history plus a few other spills. Why, cause of cutting back and trying to save more money.


Not to go down this slightly different road too far, but the DH oil spill wasn't caused by "cutting back" or "trying to save more money"; it was caused at its very root by the unbridled greed of an oil company, the corrupt incompetence of the Minerals Management Agency, and the steadfast refusal by millions of Americans to change driving habits.
Quoting hydrus:
Ya know, I am going to be honest and direct..It DOES make sense having a reasonable debate about global warming here..We are discussing the formation of giant steam engines or steam entities , things that feed and energize on WARM water!!!!...Why there is whining and complaining over this? It is almost stupid not to talk about...Hell, even the good Doctor himself puts an elaborate post up occasionally....And they actually bitch him out for it!!!!! Even when there are full aware that it is his blog..
It shocks me also Hydrus. Here we have a blog to discuss hurricanes AND other weather phenomena, yet some apparently educated persons would rather keep their heads buried in the sand and keep harming the Planet. Dr M is a big advocate against GW and he tries to spread the word before it is too late. GW like Evolution are fact not theory anymore. we need to now discuss solutions and this blog is the perfect place.
Quoting Neapolitan:


Not to go down this slightly different road too far, but the DH oil spill wasn't caused by "cutting back" or "trying to save more money"; it was caused at its very root by the unbridled greed of an oil company, the corrupt incompetence of the Minerals Management Agency, and the steadfast refusal by millions of Americans to change driving habits.


Simply put, thats saving money bro! Don't over think things!
MEGI
Quoting cat5hurricane:

I totally agree Hydrus. I don't see anything wrong with it since the Doc did make mention of it himself afterall. People are always going to find fault with something even if this world was perfect.

And I agree, GW (or the lack thereof...whichever side you take) wholeheartedly contributes to the dynamics of the discussion of tropical weather & any kind of weather on a global level for that matter.
Thank you for bein understanding..Was I ranting? I think I was..;)
Quoting Neapolitan:


That's reaching, friend: directing folks to an article on a pay-to-write website (with a reputation as a bit of a scam) that freely quotes from Big Energy shills? I don't think so... ;-)

I like to see it from all sides....then, I make my decisions.
Quoting hydrus:
Yes..YES!! The mighty and omnipotent pin-hole eye baby...It rules everything that has ever existed in the universe, and everything that will come to be....Basically,.Pin-hole=God..Link It looks Godly anyway..lol

ahhhh..... WILMA.. the mother of pin-hole-godliness...... there will never be another one like her!
Quoting Chicklit:
MEGI
Maybe they should have named it MEGA...This is going to be a monster....
850mb Vorticity increasing nicely in the area just north of Panama:

6 hours ago (click for larger image):

Appropriate tropical weather-related image


Now (click for larger image):

Appropriate tropical weather-related image
Goodnight.
megi will prolly be a mega.
Quoting hydrus:
Thank you for bein understanding..Was I ranting? I think I was..;)

Nah...not at all.
Quoting hydrus:
Maybe they should have named it MEGA...This is going to be a monster....

LOL. He is just on the verge of RI if he already hasn't begun. Look out.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

I like to see it from all sides....then, I make my decisions.

Nothing wrong with that. Just keep in mind that not all data are equal...and not all data are unbiased. ;-)
Quoting Chicklit:
Goodnight.
Is 2010 Hurricane Season closed?

NO NO NO,,, Richard will be around soon...but we are getting very close...woot woot
Quoting Chicklit:
Goodnight.
Is 2010 Hurricane Season closed?

Very doubtful. I see 4-6 more named storms...
Quoting 954FtLCane:

ahhhh..... WILMA.. the mother of pin-hole-godliness...... there will never be another one like her!
I sure as heck hope not..Wilma definitely did a tremendous amount of damage...One of the most powerful hurricanes ever..And the lowest pressure ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin...You knew that, but it is certainly worth posting with an image like that...
Quoting Neapolitan:

Very doubtful. I see 4-6 more named storms...
lol.. We all sleep a little better now..4-6 yow.!
Quoting hydrus:
I sure as heck hope not..Wilma definitely did a tremendous amount of damage...One of the most powerful hurricanes ever..And the lowest pressure ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin...You knew that, but it is certainly worth posting with an image like that...

Keep the images coming. She was one hell of a storm.
Quoting hydrus:
I sure as heck hope not..Wilma definitely did a tremendous amount of damage...One of the most powerful hurricanes ever..And the lowest pressure ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin...You knew that, but it is certainly worth posting with an image like that...
One word... WOW!
Wilma ripped the ficus trees out of a friend's yard about 100-ft. along a street in Plantation Acres I think it's called.
I think I see a eye!

Quoting cat5hurricane:

Keep the images coming. She was one hell of a storm.
Here is the radar pic as it was whipping the N.E.Yucatan... It basically sat on them for almost two days..
Quoting winter123:
I think I see a eye!



Thats gonna be a bad noreaster!
Another one of Cozumel getting whacked...
Quoting hydrus:
Here is the radar pic as it was whipping the N.E.Yucatan... It basically sat on them for almost two days..

Man. I'd hate to be there. That was right before she accelerated northeastward.
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xo:
wow!!

Little wrap around flow going on for NY
Quoting hydrus:
Another one of Cozumel getting whacked...

Man...I've seen plenty of pics of Mitch but I might have to give this one the gold. Wow. Was this during the time the lowest pressure ever in the Atlantic Basis was recorded or just a bit after?
Wilma in its formative stages..
Quoting Chicklit:
Wilma ripped the ficus trees out of a friend's yard about 100-ft. along a street in Plantation Acres I think it's called.

yes the acres about 5 miles west of me. Ficus trees dont do well at all because their roots are very shallow. They are huge mammoth trees that get tossed as soon as a hurricane or heavy winds go by...
BY the way this pic is from Ficus trees in south dade.... awesome canopy..WOW!!
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Man...I've seen plenty of pics of Mitch but I might have to give this one the gold. Wow. Was this during the time the lowest pressure ever in the Atlantic Basis was recorded or just a bit after?
No..this is Wilma at her peak. with that incredible, almost unbelievable 2 mile wide pin hole eye. They are still doing research on this storm.
Wilma loosing some strength over the Yucatan..
I live in Pompano Beach and stood on my 2nd floor condo balcony that faces east during the entire Wilma . I was born here and this was my first real Hurricane to experience as an adult. I remember Donna and Betsy I think it was as a kid , they were pretty wild also.
Wilma was pretty nasty.
Quoting hydrus:
No..this is Wilma at her peak. with that incredible, almost unbelievable 2 mile wide pin hole eye. They are still doing research on this storm.

Amazing
Wilma. Just a few hours after crossing the Florida peninsula..
Quoting Neapolitan:

Very doubtful. I see 4-6 more named storms...


At least one of them must affect the US somehow I mean we're talking about a decent chance of having to use the Greek Alphabet...we only had to do that once, and that was 2005. I'd say a minimal hurricane could threaten Florida in 1-3 weeks perhaps one of these late surprises like Irene or...dare I say the W word--Wilma.
Quoting hydrus:
No..this is Wilma at her peak. with that incredible, almost unbelievable 2 mile wide pin hole eye. They are still doing research on this storm.

Great example of a stadium effect!
Does anyone want to hear my summary of a hypothetical hurricane season I just made up?
Quoting PRZEDCASTER:
I live in Pompano Beach and stood on my 2nd floor condo balcony that faces east during the entire Wilma . I was born here and this was my first real Hurricane to experience as an adult. I remember Donna and Betsy I think it was as a kid , they were pretty wild also.
Wilma was pretty nasty.

That's what I keep hearing from folks down there. Many said they were through Jeanne, Francis, & a few others I think but said nothing even compared to Wilma. I mean some of the stories really blew my mind. I bet she had to be frightening, especially up on the upper level.
Quoting hydrus:
Wilma loosing some strength over the Yucatan..
\I was in the Hospital during Wilma and missed all the fun......man I was mad. I got to leave the next morning because I had already been there for 96 hours.
Quoting hydrus:
Wilma. Just a few hours after crossing the Florida peninsula..

2 mile pinhole eye to over a 20 miles wide eye now.
The T.D.that became Wilma..#24..
Quoting 954FtLCane:
\I was in the Hospital during Wilma and missed all the fun......man I was mad. I got to leave the next morning because I had already been there for 96 hours.
Sorry to read that..What happened?
Quoting hurricaneben:


At least one of them must affect the US somehow I mean we're talking about a decent chance of having to use the Greek Alphabet...we only had to do that once, and that was 2005. I'd say a minimal hurricane could threaten Florida in 1-3 weeks perhaps one of these late surprises like Irene or...dare I say the W word--Wilma.

How dare you use the W word after seeing all these images of her!! lol
Life cycle of wilma. Not to scale.
Quoting doorman79:


Thats gonna be a bad noreaster!

It's actually starting to weaken and move out. Wouldn't it be wild if it stalled by maine and became subtropical? Doubt it's even possible due to SSTs.
Quoting hydrus:
Sorry to read that..What happened?

Had a horrible allergic reaction to something... too long to get into.... but it kept moving up on my body. They even put me in one of those sealed rooms, hahaha. I was soo mad I rode wilma out at broward general
I like this image Wilma,s eye, and you can see Cozumel in the middle getting hammered...
Quoting Vincent4989:
Life cycle of wilma. Not to scale.

It had been so long that I was wondering whether or not she actually did make a clean landfall on the Yucatan. I guess this answers my question.
570. xcool


bull sh forecast .i think southeast gong gett really cold this year jmo .
Quoting hydrus:
................................................................................................... .. ......................................................................I like this image Wilma,s eye, and you can see Cozumel in the middle getting hammered...


Actually, when this image was taken Cozumel had calm winds and clear skies :) One of my life goals is to step outside during eyewall passage. A weak storm like 75mph of course.
Another shot of Wilma at peak intensity...
Quoting hydrus:
................................................................................................... .. ......................................................................I like this image Wilma,s eye, and you can see Cozumel in the middle getting hammered...

I can't imagine... if that was Miami, Tampa or new Orleans and a storm like that sat over us ... what would be the story?
Quoting winter123:


Actually, when this image was taken Cozumel had calm winds and clear skies :)

I wouldn't want to get caught up in a storm like that, but I bet it'd really be something to be in the eye & stare up in the clear sky to observe the stars.
Quoting winter123:


Actually, when this image was taken Cozumel had calm winds and clear skies :) One of my life goals is to step outside during eyewall passage. A weak storm like 75mph of course.
lol..Sorry. I should have said after getting hammered..:) You mean its calm in the eye.?...
Quoting hydrus:
Another shot of Wilma at peak intensity...

That had to be right around when they measured the lowest pressure reading during her Cat 5 excursion.
Different angle..
Quoting hydrus:
Different angle..

Yep. That one I remember. That's peak Cat 5 175mph winds.
Quoting hydrus:
Different angle..
again I say...WOW!
I really like this pic..
Quoting hydrus:
Different angle..

I mean you couldn't get much more perfect & symmetrical than that. I mean our poor guy Megi in the Pacific. This really puts him to shame.
Quoting hydrus:
I really like this pic..

She was hauling at like a 40mph clipping at that point, right?
The Wilma Grand Finally...Link
Quoting hydrus:
I really like this pic..
I'll never forget that. the next morning it got down to 50 degrees here. No one had lights. It was 51 degrees that night and I never saw as many stars in my life that night because the sky was dark dark dark.... no one had lights!!!!
Quoting hydrus:
The Wilma Grand Finally...Link

Well, I have to say the gallery of Wilma was well worth it! Hopefully never a storm any landmass will ever have to contend with. She looks beautiful in the middle of the sea & that's about it.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

She was hauling at like a 40mph clipping at that point, right?
I would have to check..She almost looks to have annular characteristics in that image... And a hearty see ya frickin later wench pic..
Quoting 954FtLCane:
I'll never forget that. the next morning it got down to 50 degrees here. No one had lights. It was 51 degrees that night and I never saw as many stars in my life that night because the sky was dark dark dark.... no one had lights!!!!

I couldn't imagine. That had to be pretty eerie.
Quoting hydrus:
I really like this pic..


wilmas eye never filled in never filled in the whole time it was over Florida it was as if it never became a cat 2 after landfall it looked the same the whole time it crossed
neo, no rebuttle to my comment?
Quoting hydrus:
I would have to check..She almost looks to have annular characteristics in that image... And a hearty see ya frickin later wench pic..

LOL. Yeah, she sure hauled out of there.
Quoting weatherlover94:


wilmas eye never filled in never filled in the whole time it was over Florida it was as if it never became a cat 2 after landfall it looked the same the whole time it crossed

Yeah...I remember on satellite it was always a bit foggy and never completely cleared out. But she had already had her glory days and they were behind her.
Quoting 954FtLCane:

Had a horrible allergic reaction to something... too long to get into.... but it kept moving up on my body. They even put me in one of those sealed rooms, hahaha. I was soo mad I rode wilma out at broward general
Might have been divine intervention.. Who knows..
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
It shocks me also Hydrus. Here we have a blog to discuss hurricanes AND other weather phenomena, yet some apparently educated persons would rather keep their heads buried in the sand and keep harming the Planet. Dr M is a big advocate against GW and he tries to spread the word before it is too late. GW like Evolution are fact not theory anymore. we need to now discuss solutions and this blog is the perfect place.


Actually, to be precise, AGW and evolution are hypothesis rather than fact and the hypothesis are being continually updated.

The lack of precision in the AGW camp (I accept the hypothesis based upon the rise in CO2 and the Fourier experiments) is not good.

BTW, where is Floodman... I liked his comment about being civil
Quoting cat5hurricane:

I couldn't imagine. That had to be pretty eerie.

NOOOOOOO... iT WAS BEAUTIFUL....... I was sitting at the Home Depot waiting to get a generator because I knew eventually it would get warm here (and it did) and all the power polls and lines were down. Wow it was awesome though. 14 days but we had a gen.
Short but sweet, the famous "Wilma Wobble":

Quoting weatherlover94:


wilmas eye never filled in never filled in the whole time it was over Florida it was as if it never became a cat 2 after landfall it looked the same the whole time it crossed
Wilma was a strange storm..And it is just my opinion, but I truly believe the winds were higher then they predicted for her at her peak..There were no planes out there when she topped out...Probably a good thing...
Quoting Neapolitan:
Short but sweet, the famous "Wilma Wobble":

That is a far out loop..Thank you for posting it..
Quoting hydrus:
Might have been divine intervention.. Who knows..

I made the wifey picj me up right after the hurricane... I was sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo mad,,,,, i made us drive all over broward to see what had happened.
Eye of Mega (Megi) is very tiny
Quoting 954FtLCane:

NOOOOOOO... iT WAS BEAUTIFUL....... I was sitting at the Home Depot waiting to get a generator because I knew eventually it would get warm here (and it did) and all the power polls and lines were down. Wow it was awesome though. 14 days but we had a gen.

I guess if you look at it that way, then yes. The storm had already passed. At least you had the generator before the heat kicked in. Used to live in Chicago and boy, I loved when a big squall line came in and knocked out the street lamps!
Quoting Neapolitan:
Short but sweet, the famous "Wilma Wobble":


Reminds me of drawing on the etch a sketch as a kid. lol
Quoting 954FtLCane:

I made the wifey picj me up right after the hurricane... I was sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo mad,,,,, i made us drive all over broward to see what had happened.

Yeah if you live for storms, then being in the hospital couped up couldn't of been great.
Quoting EnergyMoron:


Actually, to be precise, AGW and evolution are hypothesis rather than fact and the hypothesis are being continually updated.

The lack of precision in the AGW camp (I accept the hypothesis based upon the rise in CO2 and the Fourier experiments) is not good.

BTW, where is Floodman... I liked his comment about being civil


My take on this GW thing is simple! Yes man has some to do with it. Some of it is natural cycles. Man does have a record of messing things up. Acid rain from the coal plants in the 70's, to the killing of are wetlands here in La. Not to mention the number of nuclear bombs set off in the last century. We will eventually rape the lands and seas till there is nothing left. However, unless we go back to the days of before the industrial revolution, there will be no answer. Anyone want to use an outhouse or give up your computer? Man thinks he can solve anything, but nature solves it for us. Look at it this way, gas drops from $4 to $2 a gallon and we have the largest spill in history plus a few other spills. Why, cause of cutting back and trying to save more money. Again, man may or not be causing global warming, but we sure can screw alot of things up!

Repost. But just a dumbass and what I see!
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Reminds me of drawing on the etch a sketch as a kid. lol
This is another Wilma link that is definitely worth a look..It is from CIMSSLink
ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL CCA
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...TO USE THE PROPER WORD...RELAYED...

IN ADDITION TO THE SPECTACULAR CLOUD PATTERN OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
...AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED 168 KNOTS AT 700 MB
AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 884 MB EXTRAPOLATED FROM 700MB.
UNOFFICIALLY...THE METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD THE PLANE RELAYED AN
EXTRAPOLATED 881 MB PRESSURE AND MEASURED 884 MB WITH A DROPSONDE.
THIS IS ALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VERY SMALL EYE THAT HAS BEEN
OSCILLATING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 N MI DURING EYE PENETRATIONS. THIS IS
PROBABLY THE LOWEST MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN AND IS FOLLOWED BY THE 888 MB MINIMUM PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988. HOWEVER...ONE MUST BE VERY CAREFUL
BEFORE IT IS DECLARED A RECORD MINIMUM PRESSURE UNTIL A FULL AND
DETAILED CALIBRATION OF THE INSTRUMENTS AND CALCULATIONS IS
PERFORMED. SO PLEASE DO NOT JUMP INTO CONCLUSIONS YET...BE PATIENT.

WILMA IS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE THAT IS MOVING OVER
VERY WARM WATERS...TYPICAL OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND
WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE
FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT...WILMA IS NEAR ITS MAXIMUM
POTENTIAL INTENSITY AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
MOST LIKELY...THE SMALL EYE WILL COLLAPSE FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT
WEAKENING OR SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLES WILL LIKELY CONTROL THE INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS
WHILE THE HURRICANE IS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
THEREAFTER...ONCE WILMA REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
ENCOUNTERS THE WESTERLIES AND HIGH SHEAR...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT
7 KNOTS. IT SEEMS THAT DATA FROM THE HIGH ALTITUDE NOAA JET
INGESTED BY MODELS CAUSED THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE TO SHIFT
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD FOR THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD. HOWEVER...NO CHANGE IN
TRACK IS INDICATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO TURN WILMA SHARPLY TO THE NORTHEAST OVER FLORIDA. BASED ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD BUT IS KEPT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE.
THIS IN CASE THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHIFTS BACK TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT
RUN.

IN SUMMARY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE CORE OF THIS
CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND
THEN SHARPLY TURNS A WEAKER HURRICANE TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD
FLORIDA WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. NO CHANGE IN WARNINGS
OR WATCHES IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0900Z 17.2N 82.5W 150 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 17.7N 83.4W 150 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 18.5N 84.7W 145 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 20.0N 85.5W 140 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 21.0N 85.7W 130 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 22.5N 86.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 23/0600Z 26.5N 81.0W 90 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 24/0600Z 33.0N 72.0W 70 KT
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Yeah if you live for storms, then being in the hospital couped up couldn't of been great.

iT stunk, I felt slighted. So next time I post Im in the hospital everyone better run for their lives!!
Quoting hydrus:
This is another Wilma link that is definitely worth a look..It is from CIMSSLink

NICE. Gotta bookmark that one! Thanks for posting.
Quoting EnergyMoron:


Actually, to be precise, AGW and evolution are hypothesis rather than fact and the hypothesis are being continually updated.

The lack of precision in the AGW camp (I accept the hypothesis based upon the rise in CO2 and the Fourier experiments) is not good.

BTW, where is Floodman... I liked his comment about being civil
I was hoping him and Grothar would be here..I want to hear there thoughts on the Caribbean disturbance..
Quoting Neapolitan:

I still remember waking up first thing that morning reading that and almost feel over in awe that this thing hit Cat 5...the 3rd one that year.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

I still remember waking up first thing that morning reading that and almost feel over in awe that this thing hit Cat 5...the 3rd one that year.
I remember thinking, A cat-5 with the name Wilma..Never thought I would live to see the"w" storm, let alone it be a 5 and the 3rd one,...geez.
Quoting hydrus:
I was hoping him and Grothar would be here..I want to hear there thoughts on the Caribbean disturbance..


Nah, you really just want to see Grothar in a thong on the night shift like he promised this morning :).
Quoting hydrus:
I remember thinking, A cat-5 with the name Wilma..Never thought I would live to see the"w" storm, let alone it be a 5 and the 3rd one,...geez.
Yep...no kidding.
Quoting EnergyMoron:


Nah, you really just want to see Grothar in a thong on the night shift like he promised this morning :).

LOL. I thought I recalled reading that!
Quoting EnergyMoron:


Nah, you really just want to see Grothar in a thong on the night shift like he promised this morning :).
The blue one....God please let it be the blue..Its so cuddly
Looking healthier:
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Looking healthier:
I know..Megi will be Mega soon...
The formation of the strange circulation in Portland:
Quoting atmoaggie:
The bulk of them falling 10, 40, and 70 years ago is random? Not hardly.


Which in turn quotes "Not me. What's interesting is that the state records are spread around so randomly through the years--exactly what would be expected in a normal world--yet suddenly so many national records are suddenly spiking...about what one would expect with a rapidly warming world."

The Oxburgh Report does point out that the statistical skills of several climate scientists are in need of improvement.

Okay, I look at the data and I see that fully 25 of the measurements are between 1930 and 1937.

What does this mean?

They certainly are not in 30 year periods nor evenly distributed.

While my degree is in nonlinear differential equations, yah, I did have to take lots of "sadistics"

"There are lies, damn lies, and statistics"--Mark Twain
Quoting hydrus:
I was hoping him and Grothar would be here..I want to hear there thoughts on the Caribbean disturbance..


To be precise, AND accurate, evolution is a fact, not a hypothesis.

Human-caused climate change is a hypothesis. Evolution is not.
Quoting hydrus:
I know..Megi will be Mega soon...

As soon as the TUTT low off to the west loosens up the strain on his NW quadrant, we're going to see a nice period of RI with him. It might have even commenced...or is on the verge of.
Quoting Krycek1984:


To be precise, AND accurate, evolution is a fact, not a hypothesis.

Human-caused climate change is a hypothesis. Evolution is not.
please explain further if you have a moment.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

As soon as the TUTT low off to the west loosens up the strain on his NW quadrant, we're going to see a nice period of RI with him. It might have even commenced...or is on the verge of.
The water Megi is over is at least 85 degrees. It will have no problem with fuel...
Quoting EnergyMoron:


Actually, to be precise, AGW and evolution are hypothesis rather than fact and the hypothesis are being continually updated.


Actually, both AGW and evolution are scientific theories, not hypotheses, as are gravity and Einsteinian relativity. But calling any of these a theory does not mean there's great certainty about whether they're true; it simply means that there are a few minor details to be worked out, though the pieces as a whole fit, and fit very, very well.

In short, there is a scientific consensus: the planet is growing warmer, and mankind's wanton activities seem to be the prime motivator behind the almost runaway warming trend.
He could explain for the next 5 years and some people wouldn't or couldn't except the concept. It took centuries before people realized the earth wasn't the center of the universe.
Quoting hydrus:
The water Megi is over is at least 85 degrees. It will have no problem with fuel...

Oh totally. That's an octane field out there. Not too mention, shear will level off once he commits to the steering flow of the high. He's got all the weapons necessary to be a monster.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Oh totally. That's an octane field out there. Not too mention, shear will level off once he commits to the steering flow of the high. He's got all the weapons necessary to be a monster.
I am hoping for some miracle to happen and the Philippines will be spared..They have been pounded by these typhoons so often..One of the worst ones I can recall was Ike in 1984. A strong typhoon that killed almost 1500 people...
Quoting hydrus:
I am hoping for some miracle to happen and the Philippines will be spared..They have been pounded by these typhoons so often..One of the worst ones I can recall was Ike in 1984. A strong typhoon that killed almost 1500 people...

It would have to be some miracle. Although the possibility is still there for him to really get entrained into that high before riding it on a further northward track taking it North of Luzon. But then China would have to watch out as this thing would not weaken any not going over the rugged terrain of Luzon.

IKE afterall went through a very populated area Cebu, Bohol, and also Negros. Probably that accounted for such a high loss of life.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Someone's drinking the pinhole koolaid. Hat's off to the pinhole.
Kool-aid is beautiful...It was first marketed in 1927...
Quoting cat5hurricane:

It would have to be some miracle. Although the possibility is still there for him to really get entrained into that high before riding it on a further northward track taking it North of Luzon. But then China would have to watch out as this thing would not weaken any not going over the rugged terrain of Luzon.

IKE afterall went through a very populated area Cebu, Bohol, and also Negros. Probably that accounted for such a high loss of life.
They are so poor. And it always seems to kill some many little ones...Heart-wrenching..:(..I am out for the night..See ya manana..
Quoting hydrus:
They are so poor. And it always seems to kill some many little ones...Heart-wrenching..:(..I am out for the night..See ya manana..

Alright man. See ya then. Hope this thing stays well off to the north.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Service and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TYPHOON JUAN (MEGI)
11:00 AM PhST October 16 2010
=======================================

Typhoon "JUAN" has maintained its strength and moves in a West Northwest direction.

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Juan (Megi) located at 17.8°N 132.6°E or 980 km east of Northern Luzon has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gustiness up to 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northeast at 10 knots.

Additional Information
========================
This weather disturbance is still far to affect any part of the country.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin alert to be issued at 11 PM today.
Quoting gordydunnot:
He could explain for the next 5 years and some people wouldn't or couldn't except the concept. It took centuries before people realized the earth wasn't the center of the universe.
Unfortunately way to many still have the "flat Earth" and "center of the universe" notion when it comes to GW and even evolution. It shocks me that some can't seem to understand that as CO2 and other man made greenhouse gasses go up so does the temperature. They are in some sort of denial because the data is crystal clear.
Kerry you can't be serious, show me where it says that in the good book. God may need man to build the temple before he can come back to earth, but there is no way man can possible influence the weather.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
TYPHOON MEGI (T1013)
12:00 PM JST October 16 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea East of The Philippines

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Megi (955 hPa) located at 17.6N 132.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots

Dvorak Intensity:

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
200 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
160 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 19.1N 127.6E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
45 HRS: 18.2N 123.0E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Strong Typhoon)
69 HRS: 17.2N 118.0E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
Quoting gordydunnot:
...there is no way man can possible influence the weather.


You're kidding, right? Right? Please tell me you're kidding. Please?
Quoting hydrus:
I am hoping for some miracle to happen and the Philippines will be spared..They have been pounded by these typhoons so often..One of the worst ones I can recall was Ike in 1984. A strong typhoon that killed almost 1500 people...


Me too, my Mom left to visit the Philippines today to go back for the first time since she left when she was just a child. However, she is really going because her father (who has lived there all his life-he didn't come over to America with his wife and children (my mom and brothers and sisters)) wanted to see his children one last time if he passes away. So she will be there till next Sunday. Luckily, she is visiting an area in the more middle section of the nation, so the brunt of the storm should be well to the north of her. But still, I really hope she, and my grandpa are okay.
Quoting gordydunnot:
Kerry you can't be serious, show me where it says that in the good book. God may need man to build the temple before he can come back to earth, but there is no way man can possible influence the weather.
I suppose you are right. :)
For Kerry from last blog:

Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Yes it is a 3rd world city, not country. Luckily for me, I live in Metairie, which has not yet become 3rd world.



Are you kidding? Hate the idea of living in Metairie, lived there as a kid. Heck, Baton Rouge is a third world country now...
Quoting Neapolitan:


Actually, both AGW and evolution are scientific theories, not hypotheses, as are gravity and Einsteinian relativity. But calling any of these a theory does not mean there's great certainty about whether they're true; it simply means that there are a few minor details to be worked out, though the pieces as a whole fit, and fit very, very well.

In short, there is a scientific consensus: the planet is growing warmer, and mankind's wanton activities seem to be the prime motivator behind the almost runaway warming trend.


warmer than what?
Quoting RedStickCasterette:
For Kerry from last blog:

Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Yes it is a 3rd world city, not country. Luckily for me, I live in Metairie, which has not yet become 3rd world.



Are you kidding? Hate the idea of living in Metairie, lived there as a kid. Heck, Baton Rouge is a third world country now...
And where do you live now that's so great?
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #14
DEPRESSION BOB03-2010
5:30 AM IST October 16 2010
===================================

SUBJECT: Depression Overland South Orissa.

At 0:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over south coastal Orissa near Gopalpur moved westwards and weakened into a depression. Depression BOB03-2010 lays centered over south Orissa and adjoining areas of Chhattisgarh and north Andhra Pradesh, or about 50 kms west of Gopalpur (Orissa).

The current environmental conditions and numerical weather prediction models suggest that the system would move westward and further weaken gradually.
Dumb question. You live in Red Stick!
Yes Neapolitan, in one way I'm kidding most definitely.
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
And where do you live now that's so great?


Oops thought I said, Baton Rouge area. Outskirts but its getting bad.

Shame for such a lovely town, to be a third world ghetto...
Good evening/good morning :O)

It is official, I am a Ft Worth Weather Examiner, on "Examiner.com". Here is a link to my first published article.

Link
Quoting Bordonaro:
Good evening/good morning :O)

It is official, I am a Ft Worth Weather Examiner, on "Examiner.com". Here is a link to my first published article.

Link

Yay, Bord!!! Good on ya!!!
Quoting miajrz:

Yay, Bord!!! Good on ya!!!

Thanks, I love to write about weather, I put a link in there for Weather Underground.
Paula is dead..
Quoting Vincent4989:
Paula is dead..

She is somewhere in that cold front, not sure where.
Well I'll post it again, Congratulations Bordonaro.
I agree
is richard eventually dead?
Quoting gordydunnot:
Well I'll post it again, Congratulations Bordonaro.

Thanks everyone, I appreciate you :O)

Richy,Rich maybe. He ain't going to die.
Good Evening To All:

This is my first post on this blog, though I have been lurking here on and off for literally years.

I always enjoy the discussions here (when they are civil) between informed weather watchers and those with interest in tropical cyclones, similar to myself.

Tonight on the West Coast of Florida at my location, the current temp. is 58F under clear skies with a light northerly wind. It is what I think of as the type of weather conditions that decrease the likelihood of tropical cyclones affecting this area for the rest of the season. Hope I'm right about that!
Quoting Bordonaro:
Good evening/good morning :O)

It is official, I am a Ft Worth Weather Examiner, on "Examiner.com". Here is a link to my first published article.

Link


Very nice.. You even gave Weather Underground a plug:)
Hey Skyepony, see how high she fly's because your never, never,never going to catch her now.
Megi going mega in about maybe 8 hours.
Quoting Bordonaro:
Good evening/good morning :O)

It is official, I am a Ft Worth Weather Examiner, on "Examiner.com". Here is a link to my first published article.

Link
Congratulations!
EDIT: Duplicate of 668 - Beat me to it...
Raining here now due to Mega's outer storm clouds
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST October 16 2010
===================================

A well marked low pressure area lies over east central Bay of Bengal and neighborhood. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a northwesterly direction initially.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #15
WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA, FORMER BOB03-2010
8:30 AM IST October 16 2010
===================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, The depression over south Orissa moved westwards and weakened further. The Well Marked Low Pressure Area lays over south Orissa and adjoining Chhattisgarh and north Andhra Pradesh.

This is the final tropical cyclone bulletin from the India Meteorological Department
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
TYPHOON MEGI (T1013)
15:00 PM JST October 16 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea East of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Megi (955 hPa) located at 18.1N 131.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 16 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
200 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
160 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 19.1N 126.2E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
48 HRS: 17.7N 120.3E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
72 HRS: 16.5N 115.8E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
Just published my second article for the Ft. Worth, TX Weather Examiner this morning. Please take a look: Link
Quoting Bordonaro:
Just published my second article for the Ft. Worth, TX Weather Examiner this morning. Please take a look: Link

BTW, awesome!!!!!! Congrats Good Job!
I just realized that I was the 1st posting in over 1 hour previously, So now my next goal is just to talk to myself, hey how r u today? fine and u? well just ducky....thanks for asking.
Quoting 954FtLCane:
I just realized that I was the 1st posting in over 1 hour previously, So now my next goal is just to talk to myself, hey how r u today? fine and u? well just ducky....thanks for asking.


lmao
Quoting RedStickCasterette:
For Kerry from last blog:

Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Yes it is a 3rd world city, not country. Luckily for me, I live in Metairie, which has not yet become 3rd world.



Are you kidding? Hate the idea of living in Metairie, lived there as a kid. Heck, Baton Rouge is a third world country now...


lol

no

This blog has come to a screeching halt!
000
AWUS83 KFSD 160217
RWSFSD
SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-IAZ001>003-
012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-161000-

REGIONAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
920 PM CDT FRI OCT 15 2010

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ON SATURDAY.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY...WILL VARY FROM THE 50S IN THE NORTH...TO THE 60S ACROSS
THE SOUTH. THE COOLER WEATHER WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.

OK Im doing this just for the hey. MN weather service posting.
I know IKE loves to show these postings to disprove that anything will come our way.
yes sarcasm flag is "WAY" on.
Oh I forgot happy face, happy face :-)
Quoting KoritheMan:


lol

no


Yes it is, and you know it!
Quoting RedStickCasterette:


Yes it is, and you know it!


No, it really isn't. :P

I live close to there, and even frequently visit, so...
vote no for 4? im not sure.
Quoting islander101010:
vote no for 4? im not sure.

LOL,,,,,but really VOTE NO for 4
Link
vote no on 4 site.
By the way will there be a possible Richard? and if so does anyone, can anyone post the latest GFS?
Quoting IKE:
Latest GFS...currently out through 18 hours...
OMG MIA GETS HIT BY A CAT 3......OK JUST KIDDING EVERY1
689. IKE
6Z GFS has the next system...Richard...going over Honduras and Nicaragua...

@162 hours...

vote no? send money; the other ad verizon for 59$ seems okay with a phone wonder if it works with a ipad. a limit on time.?


thunderstorms Adjusted perfectlcy over deepeining vort, conv n div, wat ight we have this afternoon
Quoting Vincent4989:
The formation of the strange circulation in Portland:


The weather looks wierd too...
693. IKE
NEW BLOG!

Psst...global warming!
Quoting IKE:
6Z GFS has the next system...Richard...going over Honduras and Nicaragua...

@162 hours...



Okay now I am confused, does this mean that the predicted storm for Florida will come from a system that will develop later this week ? This "blob" down near Panama is not Richard ?

Also I saw a model posted at a Miami Dolphins website (thanks to B.Sebo) that calls for a storm to be near Miami on October 25th with a millibar pressure of 984 mb. Would this be a strong tropical storm and not a hurricane ?
Quoting orthodoxkc:


Okay now I am confused, does this mean that the predicted storm for Florida will come from a system that will develop later this week ? This "blob" down near Panama is not Richard ?

Also I saw a model posted at a Miami Dolphins website (thanks to B.Sebo) that calls for a storm to be near Miami on October 25th with a millibar pressure of 984 mb. Would this be a strong tropical storm and not a hurricane ?


probably a hurricane, but not very srtong pperhaps a cat 2
Quoting shikori:


probably a hurricane, but not very srtong pperhaps a cat 2

What is the threshold of pressure for a storm to be called a hurricane ? is it 980 millibars as I saw at one website ?
Quoting orthodoxkc:

What is the threshold of pressure for a storm to be called a hurricane ? is it 980 millibars as I saw at one website ?


>979 is 75-95 mile an hour winds i think but it depends on the sytem itself.
Quoting shikori:


>979 is 75-95 mile an hour winds i think but it depends on the sytem itself.


So we are most likely talking about a system that could be anywhere from strong trop storm to cat 1 more likely with the top end being a weak 2 ? I live in Miami and am just trying to prepare myself. I hate these storms so much. I don't understand the cheering from some of the folks on here. I don't think many of them have experienced these storms 1st hand and understand how they adversely affect people and the lives they cost. These are not "beautiful" storms, they are all ugly and painful to experience.