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Paula continuing to weaken

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:53 PM GMT on October 14, 2010

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that Tropical Storm Paula continues to weaken. The aircraft's latest center penetration at 3:08pm EDT found top winds at their flight level of 10,000 feet of just 55 mph in the eyewall. The SFMR instrument saw surface winds near 65 mph. The eyewall of Paula has collapsed, and satellite imagery shows the storm has a lopsided appearance due to wind shear. The low-level center is almost exposed to view, the classic satellite signature of a storm under high wind shear. Since the high wind shear affecting Paula is pushing most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms to the north, Cuba is receiving very little rain from the storm. Havana has reported two brief rain squalls from Paula, and top sustained winds of just 20 mph. Sporadic heavy rains are affecting the Florida Keys today, with Key West picking up 1.01" inches of rain thus far. Weather radar out of Key West (Figure 2) noted several regions offshore where Paula has dumped 5+ inches of rain.


Figure 1. Radar image from the Pinar del Rio radar in Cuba at 3:15pm EDT on October 14, 2010, showing that Paula is now very disorganized. Image credit: Cuban Institute of Meteorology.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation for Paula from the Key West radar.

Forecast for Paula
The models continue to predict that Paula will move along the north coast of Cuba or just inland during the next two days. On this track, Paula will move over Cuba's capital, Havana, tonight and Friday morning. An extended period of time over mountainous Cuba will likely destroy a small storm like Paula by Friday night, particularly since the storm will be under 30+ knots of wind shear. The models are pretty unanimous in showing that wind shear will pull Paula apart over the next day regardless of whether or not the center stays over water. Tropical storm force winds extend out just 45 miles to the north of Paula's center, so it is unlikely that the Florida Keys will experience sustained winds of 39+ mph. The 11am EDT wind probability product from NHC gives Key West a 21% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds; these odds are 70% for Havana. Havana may receive some minor wind damage from Paula, and there may be some minor flooding problems in the mountainous regions of Cuba.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The latest 8am EDT (12Z) NOGAPS and GFS model runs continue to predict the formation of a tropical depression 4 - 5 days from now, in the southern Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua. The storm is predicted to move northwest or northwards towards the Cayman Islands and Jamaica, once it forms. The GFS model has been pretty reliable in forecasting the genesis of new tropical depressions this year, and the fact that we have two major models predicting the formation of a new Caribbean tropical depression next week is worth paying attention to.

In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Megi is nearing typhoon strength, and is predicted to intensify into a major typhoon that will strike the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Sunday night or Monday morning.

Next update
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

hmmm
Looks like Richard is going to be a biggy.
the fact that we have two major models predicting the formation of a new Caribbean tropical depression next week is worth paying attention to.

ok.... am paying attention.
TS Megi looking more and more threatening.



Um, can someone let the other peeps on-the old blog that there's a new blog
The COC of Paula will soon be emerging off the south of Cuba at around 22.2N/82.7W IMO, probably in another 2-3 hours, could be interesting to see if it holds together or regains strength, JMO.
What a lame final quarter to hurricane season 2010.
Quoting bjdsrq:
What a lame final quarter to hurricane season 2010.


Richard may prove to "unlame" it for you. lol ;)
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
the fact that we have two major models predicting the formation of a new Caribbean tropical depression next week is worth paying attention to.

ok.... am paying attention.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
the fact that we have two major models predicting the formation of a new Caribbean tropical depression next week is worth paying attention to.

ok.... am paying attention.


The only reliable model this year has been the XTRP.
Could Paula be trying to form a new LLC?

Lower Convergence:



Upper Divergence:

At 264 hours the 12z GFS has a hurricane making landfall over southeastern Florida. That probably caught your attention. Lol. Anyways, this is extremely long-range and the system has yet to develop. Instead of looking at the specifics in track and intensity, we should focus on the fact that the GFS has been consistent with the development of a tropical cyclone in the southern Caribbean just about 4-5 days from now. As Jeff Masters pointed out, the GFS has been doing well after the upgrade with spotting the genesis of tropical cyclones.

Definitely worth paying attention to.

Quoting alvarig1263:


Richard may prove to "unlame" it for you. lol ;)


Oh, I've learned my lesson not to believe any models outside of 72 hours. Just a couple weeks ago, many here were burned thinking a line of storms was going to hit FL out of the carib first week of Oct based on GFS and other models. Instead we had desert-like conditions with the most beautiful early Oct beach weather I've seen in 20 years. I don't chase ghost anymore. Please don't use the 'R' word until the NHC names it.
You know once again we have been really lucky with the Fish or almost fish storms this year.. Paulas not going to do any really extensive or bad damage overall while the damage in a mexico and few other places was very bad considering the number of storms we have had and how many were majors there has not been the Huge swaths of devastation we might have had like with Hugo. I guess Mexico and new Foundland got it worst with the islands here taking a good hit from Earl and pre Otto has actually caused a LOT of Damage in the Virgins..
But It could have been much worse..
Not over yet but winding down for sure...
Shear is going to be a big problem for most storm that form from now on and water temps are starting to drop and when the highs build south in over the next 10 days or so will drop even more..
Center exposed on the South coast ??

GFS 168 HRS

NOGAPS 144HRS

I think it's rather cruel for Paula to be thrown into the norther Caribbean again. Surely she'll be allowed to RIP.
Quoting bjdsrq:


Deja vu circa sept 20, 2010. Don't start the @200+ hours and 'consistent' BS stuff again so soon already please. If anything, 200+ hours out will be the converse of what it's calling for. That's been it's record in recent weeks for anything beyond 72 hours.
You misinterpreted what I said. I'm not focusing on the 200+ hour forecast; rather, I'm focusing on the fact that the GFS develops a system in just a few days. And yes, it has been consistent with the development of a tropical cyclone in the southern Caribbean. I've seen more than 10 runs of the GFS showing development with good time-line progression.

Do you see me 'trusting' models beyond 200 hours anyways?
Quoting bjdsrq:
What a lame final quarter to hurricane season 2010.


Lame in which way? Have you not been entertained enough? Tell us, what would it take to "unlame" it for you?
Paula's Center Now Exposed...
Quoting kmanislander:
Center exposed on the South coast ??

Tough call. The circulation looks broad. Looks to me like the circulation is inland, but close to the south Cuba border.


Center is right on the North Coast.
Link
Quoting sammywammybamy:
LLC..


Look at my post # 19

I wonder if the HH was following a false center ?
The models finally caught on that the hook over Cuba isn't happening.
This weekend will be interesting to observe what may materialize down in the SW Caribbean Sea. Already, there appears to be an area of disturbed weather brewing just to the north of Panama. This area just may be the seed to spring what the reliable models want to develop Richard in the coming days.

We should know by Sunday or maybe sooner of what we may be dealing with down the road.
Could be KMAN. Virtually impossible to say.

RGB Floater
Reposted from the previous blog with a correction made to the coordinates to be copy&pasted into the GreatCircleMapper

TropicalStormPaula made landfall near PuertoEsperanza,Cuba

TS.Paula's heading had turned eastward to dueEast
from its previous heading of (7.3degrees east of) EastNorthEast
TS.Paula's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions had increased to ~12.7mph(~20.4km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~8.7mph(~13.9km/h)

Category2
13Oct 06pmGMT - - 21.5n85.7w - - 100mph(~160.9km/h) - - - 989mb -- NHC.Adv.#9A
Category1
13Oct 09pmGMT - - 21.7n85.6w - - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10
14Oct 12amGMT - - 21.8n85.6w - - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10A
14Oct 03amGMT - - 21.9n85.4w - - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv.#11
14Oct 06amGMT - - 22.2n85.2w - - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv.#11A
14Oct 09amGMT - - 22.3n84.9w - - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 999mb -- NHC.Adv.#12
14Oct 12pmGMT - - 22.7n84.5w - - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 999mb -- NHC.Adv.#12A
TropicalStorm
14Oct 03pmGMT - - 22.8n84.1w - - - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - - 1000mb -- NHC.Adv.#13
14Oct 06pmGMT - - 22.8n83.5w - - - 65mph(~104.6km/h) - - 1002mb -- NHC.Adv.#13A

Copy &paste 21.5n85.7w, 21.7n85.6w, 21.8n85.6w, 21.9n85.4w, 22.2n85.2w-22.3n84.9w, 22.3n84.9w-22.7n84.5w, 22.7n84.5w-22.8n84.1w, 22.8n84.1w-22.8n83.5w, cun, mia, nbw, 22.8n83.5w-22.8n79.86w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~16hours from now to reentry into the Atlantic near DosAmigos,Cuba
Though given it's rate of recurvature, TS.Paula is more likely to reenter the Caribbean
north of Isla de Juventad tonight after 09pmGMT but before 12amGMT

^ The easternmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
Werid Huh?

Quoting BoyntonBeachFL:
Center is off the North Coast.
Link


That is the mid level center on the radar. It cannot see the surface low from which it is decoupled.
Run the vis loop from here
hurricane Richard going to the northeast here...wow what is going on here. HURRICANE RICHARD WILL HIT CAPE COD..WOW
Quoting Neapolitan:


Lame in which way? Have you not been entertained enough? Tell us, what would it take to "unlame" it for you?
He probably wants to see "death and destruction". Though I think we had enough of that this season, in fact too much. Maybe he wanted a big one slamming into USA for whatever reason. Maybe he owns a Home Depot.
Back later
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
At 264 hours the 12z GFS has a hurricane making landfall over southeastern Florida. That probably caught your attention. Lol. Anyways, this is extremely long-range and the system has yet to develop. Instead of looking at the specifics in track and intensity, we should focus on the fact that the GFS has been consistent with the development of a tropical cyclone in the southern Caribbean just about 4-5 days from now. As Jeff Masters pointed out, the GFS has been doing well after the upgrade with spotting the genesis of tropical cyclones.

Definitely worth paying attention to.


It's been fantastic with spotting any cyclogenensis this year.
hey guys just came back from a long day of work at the Met office and I think paula's COC is now remerging off of cuba

anyway I am on my PS3 so I am going to go play some modern warfare II now BBL
5:00 PM EDT Thu Oct 14
Location: 22.8°N 82.8°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: E at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb
ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
500 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

THE CENTER OF PAULA MOVED OVER CUBA NEAR PUERTO ESPERANZA AROUND
NOON TODAY AND PRODUCED A WIND GUST FROM THE NORTH OF 68 MPH...110
KM/HR...AT THE WEATHER STATION IN LA PALMA. SINCE THEN...THE CENTER
HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME GRADUALLY SEPARATED FROM THE DEEP
CONVECTION WHICH IS TO THE NORTH OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DUE TO BOTH SHEAR AND THE
EFFECT OF LAND. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IN THE AREA JUST MEASURED WINDS
BETWEEN 50 AND 55 KNOTS OVER WATER TO NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER ALONG
THE NORTH COAST OF HAVANA...BUT THESE WINDS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
HIGH SIDE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KNOTS. PAULA IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE SHEAR INCREASES...AND THE CYCLONE COULD
BECOME A DEPRESSION IN 24 HOURS OR SO AND DISSIPATE IN 48 HOURS.

PAULA IS MOVING EASTWARD OR 090 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE BASE OF A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. A
GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS...BRINGING THE CYCLONE OVER HAVANA AND CENTRAL CUBA.
HOWEVER...THE CENTER COULD BECOME COMPLETELY DECOUPLED AND MOVE
TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST TRACK AND THIS
POSSIBILITY EXISTS IF PAULA DOES NOT WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. AT THIS
TIME THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES A GRADUAL WEAKENING AND CALLS
FOR A COMPROMISE SOLUTION...KEEPING PAULA ON AN EASTWARD TRACK
UNTIL DISSIPATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 22.8N 82.8W 50 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 23.0N 81.5W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 15/1800Z 23.0N 79.8W 30 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 23.0N 78.5W 25 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 22.5N 78.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

NNNN


Quoting sammywammybamy:
5:00 PM EDT Thu Oct 14
Location: 22.8°N 82.8°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: E at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb


Hard to disagree with it.
GFS has a system developing in a reasonable time frame and has started to show consistency. Slowly, the ECMWF is starting to come on board.

Looks like we'll have to watch this disturbance.

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
500 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

...PAULA MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...WIND GUSTS TO 68 MPH...110
KM/HR REPORTED NEAR PUERTO ESPERANZA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 82.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA
HABANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS
CENTERED OVER CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.8 WEST.
PAULA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...PAULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CUBA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL
AREA TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND PAULA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST FROM THE CENTER. LA PALMA NEAR PUERTO
ESPERANZA REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 68 MPH...110 KM/HR...AND BAHIA
HONDA REPORTED A WIND GUST TO NEAR 65 MPH...105 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ALONG THE NORTH
COAST. WINDS COULD INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS
TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH PAULA. THESE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW ALONG
THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

NNNN


PAULA MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...WIND GUSTS TO 68 MPH...110 KM/HR REPORTED NEAR PUERTO ESPERANZA...
The NHC has the right spot on the 5pm EDT advisory. Here is where I have it as of 19:45 UTC.

Quoting Neapolitan:


Lame in which way? Have you not been entertained enough? Tell us, what would it take to "unlame" it for you?
I have an answer but it would get me 48 hours in WU jail and I dont want that again
Just fascinating how hurricane size matters. Right now in Miami wind speed is near zero. It's still. Just a couple of hundred miles from Paula. But with Igor and most of the other Atlantic storms this year, Miami felt the outflow with steady 15mph winds several hundred miles away for several days.
TS.Paula's heading held steady at dueEast
TS.Paula's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions had increased to ~15mph(~24.1km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~12.7mph(~20.4km/h)
Category1
13Oct 09pmGMT - - 21.7n85.6w - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10
14Oct 12amGMT - - 21.8n85.6w - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10A
14Oct 03amGMT - - 21.9n85.4w - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv.#11
14Oct 06amGMT - - 22.2n85.2w - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv..#11A
14Oct 09amGMT - - 22.3n84.9w - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 999mb -- NHC.Adv.#12
14Oct 12pmGMT - - 22.7n84.5w - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 999mb -- NHC.Adv.#12A
TropicalStorm
14Oct 03pmGMT - - 22.8n84.1w - - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - - 1000mb -- NHC.Adv.#13
14Oct 06pmGMT - - 22.8n83.5w - - 65mph(~104.6km/h) - - 1002mb -- NHC.Adv.#13A
14Oct 09pmGMT - - 22.8n82.8w - - 60mph(~96.6km/h) - - - 1002mb -- NHC.Adv.#14

Copy &paste 21.7n85.6w, 21.8n85.6w, 21.9n85.4w, 22.2n85.2w, 22.3n84.9w-22.7n84.5w, 22.7n84.5w-22.8n84.1w, 22.8n84.1w-22.8n83.5w, 22.8n83.5w-22.8n82.8w, cun, mia, nbw, 22.8n82.8w-22.8n79.86w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~12hours from now to entry into the Atlantic near DosAmigos,Cuba
though I wouldn't be surprised if it took a dip into the nearby Caribbean

^ The easternmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The NHC has the right spot on the 5pm EDT advisory. Here is where I have it as of 19:45 UTC.



LOL. Perfect!
Quoting Leafgreen:
Just fascinating how hurricane size matters. Right now in Miami wind speed is near zero. It's still. Just a couple of hundred miles from Paula. But with Igor and most of the other Atlantic storms this year, Miami felt the steady outflow several hundred miles away for several days.

Especially when it comes to storm surge & such.
I have never seen such a drastic shift in a cone from one advisory to the next, guess I'll have to eat crow with my predictions about it emerging off the south coast of Cuba LOL!!
I find this season a blessing in disguise! Igor was awesome to track, Earl was only 30 miles away from being a classic East Coast Hurricane like "Gloria, Bob, 1938 Hurricane, Belle, ect"

Alex was interesting as well, pressure of a major Hurricane. Paula was no doubt an interesting storm in my books. Plenty of fascinating stuff this year.
Quoting stormpetrol:
I have never seen such a drastic shift in a cone from one advisory to the next, guess I'll have to eat crow with my predictions about it emerging off the south coast of Cuba LOL!!

You & a whole bunch of others. lol
13. LRandyB 4:59 PM EDT on October 14, 2010

I'm scheduled on the flight to investigate TS Paula off the north coast of Cuba tonight. I suspect, as fast as she is being sheared, that we'll cancel but I've seen us fly much less impressive systems!!

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/LRandyB/comment.html?entrynum=170
interesting shift.. or not.. depending who you are lol seems like some models kinda keep it in the straights for a few days
Blog update, I hope you all find it informative
Paula hits Cuba.. Richard on the Horizon? 10/14/10
If anyone here believes the 180 hour GFS for "Richard", then they don't know "Dick".
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
If anyone here believes the 180 hour GFS for "Richard", then they don't know "Dick".


GFS has Richard forming or formed by Monday. A reliable time frame. Beyond that, its guessing speculation.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
If anyone here believes the 180 hour GFS for "Richard", then they don't know "Dick".

LMAO
Quoting cat5hurricane:

LMAO


Best comment all month!!!!
ROFLMAO X 2!!!!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
If anyone here believes the 180 hour GFS for "Richard", then they don't know "Dick".


Still had tears in my eyes...here's the comment that sent me on the floor!! Still hurtin! Whew!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
If anyone here believes the 180 hour GFS for "Richard", then they don't know "Dick".

Best and funniest comment days! LMAO!!
Quoting cat5hurricane:

You & a whole bunch of others. lol


Perhaps

Quoting kmanislander:


Perhaps


Hi Kman, Is it my eyes or the actual LLC of Paula, is on or just off southern coastline of Cuba already, just checked weather bug on my BB and the winds here are due west!

Quoting kmanislander:


Perhaps


Ya never know...ya never know. Like I said, the center is further south than I would of thought.

Well gotta say you nailed the whole decoupling theory before in the other blog. She definitely is not vertically stacked anymore & that base reflectivity was just deceiving.
The Front is starting to kick in now The Moisture is starting to be pushed back into the straights. If this keeps up,prob no rain for Miami but the Bahamas should get some.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html
Quoting CybrTeddy:


GFS has Richard forming or formed by Monday. A reliable time frame. Beyond that, its guessing speculation.


I apparently, have no sense of humor. :P
Quoting stormpetrol:

Hi Kman, Is it my eyes or the actual LLC of Paula, is on or just off southern coastline of Cuba already, just checked weather bug on my BB and the winds here are due west!



That is what I have been suggesting for the past couple of hours. These sheared, decoupled systems can do odd things, including producing more than one center. I recall a system just east of the eastern Caribbean that sent a false center into the NE Caribbean while the true center was still East of the islands.

I became sceptical of the North coast center position when I saw the Ascat pass from this morning.
Quoting kmanislander:


That is what I have been suggesting for the past couple of hours. These sheared, decoupled systems can do odd things, including producing more than one center. I recall a system just east of the eastern Caribbean that sent a false center into the NE Caribbean while the true center was still East of the islands.

I became scpetical of the North coast center position when I saw the Ascat pass from this morning.

The ASCAT image was kinda puzzling.
With a soon to be totally exposed center we will be able to track it. But I don't think will matter because no place to run without going through more shear.
Good Afternoon. Paula weakened as everyone expected.
If you look at the track and intensity of Paula over the last 5 days, it seems to me that the NHC did an excellent job of forecasting...yet again.
off topic
Am I the last to notice that if you zoom in under the storm clouds in google earth you actually see see the rain falling. whats next, wave heights?
Quoting mfaria101:
off topic
Am I the last to notice that if you zoom in under the storm clouds in google earth you actually see see the rain falling. whats next, wave heights?

You got a link. I'd love to see that.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
If you look at the track and intensity of Paula over the last 5 days, it seems to me that the NHC did an excellent job of forecasting...yet again.

They really did. Might of rained on some of the wishcasters' parades, but they are on target this year it seems.
Quoting kmanislander:


That is what I have been suggesting for the past couple of hours. These sheared, decoupled systems can do odd things, including producing more than one center. I recall a system just east of the eastern Caribbean that sent a false center into the NE Caribbean while the true center was still East of the islands.

I became sceptical of the North coast center position when I saw the Ascat pass from this morning.


Mid-level center is fighting to pull it back in though. No sign of losing latitude points yet. The extent of the decoupling, or the distance between mid and low-level centers, is not increasing. If anything they are getting slightly closer together with time, based on radar. You can actually see the surface center now on radar with the ghost mid-level center off to the northwest.

Quoting Seastep:


LOL. Perfect!
LOL. :)
Do you think a mandatory evacuation of Yampa dhould be ordered? I think it may be a good idea. I would keep them out until Richard's track can be analyzed next Friday.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

You got a link. I'd love to see that.


I think she means stuff like this. These are a couple of my images.

Snowstorm in December 2007 (cloud overlay is "above" the viewer, with the NWS radar overlay on the ground).



Cyclone Gael viewed "underneath" from Madagascar:

Levi, we are getting all the October storms we expected but the Conus has been protected further east than normal. Do you see that changing anytime soon?
Quoting Levi32:


Mid-level center is fighting to pull it back in though. No sign of losing latitude points yet. The extend of the decoupling, or the distance between mid and low-level centers, is not increasing. If anything they are getting slightly closer together with time, based on radar. You can actually see the surface center now on radar with the ghost mid-level center off to the northwest.


On a general level, if the shear is increasing, the decoupling will become more profound, right? Or is there more to it.
The GTPS, PREFNOP, GAVORFNO, and NOPATZ have Richard on a collision course with Tampa next Friday, late.
Quoting Levi32:


I think she means stuff like this. These are a couple of my images.

Snowstorm in December 2007 (cloud overlay is "above" the viewer, with the NWS radar overlay on the ground).



Cyclone Gael viewed "underneath" from Madagascar:


That's pretty cool. Thank you
Tropical Storm 15W (Megi) has now intensified into a typhoon over the western Pacific ocean. Winds have now increased to 80 knots (1-minute sustained) and gusts have increased to 100 knots.

WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 13.5N 137.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, AIRCRAFT AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT





Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Tropical Storm 15W (Megi) has now intensified into a typhoon over the western Pacific ocean. Winds have now increased to 80 knots (1-minute sustained) and gusts have increased to 100 knots.

WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 13.5N 137.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, AIRCRAFT AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT



Now that's a healthy looking TS
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Now that's a healthy looking TS
It intensified into a severe typhoon as of 2100 UTC. The JTWC forecasts for it to rapidly intensify tomorrow and become a super typhoon during the next few days.


This is what they were talking about I think. It's actually a raining graphic. Pretty cool
Quoting cat5hurricane:

You got a link. I'd love to see that.


You have to have the program google earth (google it) turn on weather and zoom into the clouds until your under them. the programs free and seriously cool.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It intensified into a severe typhoon as of 2100 UTC. The JTWC forecasts for it to rapidly intensify tomorrow and become a super typhoon during the next few days.

Man. I did see the forecast track posted earlier & it didn't look pretty. I sure underestimated this one then!
Paula's core visible on key west radar!
Quoting cat5hurricane:

On a general level, if the shear is increasing, the decoupling will become more profound, right? Or is there more to it.


Generally, but some really cool stuff can go on with small tropical cyclones entering the jetstream flow. Right now the jet is providing a pretty awesome area of upper divergence over the storm area, which has been acting as the sole outflow channel for a while now. Surface convergence is still excellent in this area as well and the result is that Paula is still maintaining a nice central core. This focused upward motion is pulling on the surface center and keeping it close by, not allowing a major decoupling just yet. We still may see the surface center escape out into the Florida Straights along with the mid-level center. The dynamics are actually not that bad, and that's why we saw a pressure fall of 4mb since this morning. Paula isn't going to dissipate, at least if she doesn't stay over land too long.



Quoting mfaria101:


You have to have the program google earth (google it) turn on weather and zoom into the clouds until your under them. the programs free and seriously cool.

Gotcha. I'm gonna have to check that out then.

Thanks.
Havana airport:

5:55 PM 73.4 °F 71.6 °F 94%

29.59 in 1.2 miles

NNE 19.6 mph - N/A Rain Heavy Rain
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Man. I did see the forecast track posted earlier & it didn't look pretty. I sure underestimated this one then!
Yup. Megi is expected to be a category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale when it makes landfall over Luzon. I wouldn't be surprised to see it intensify into a category 5 system considering the favorable environment conditions set to be around the system during the next few days.

Back later.


Quoting alvarig1263:


This is what they were talking about I think. It's actually a raining graphic. Pretty cool


Oooh....that's pretty cool. I haven't seen that yet.
Quoting Levi32:


Generally, but some really cool stuff can go on with small tropical cyclones entering the jetstream flow. Right now the jet is providing a pretty awesome area of upper divergence over the storm area, which has been acting as the sole outflow channel for a while now. Surface convergence is still excellent in this area as well and the result is that Paula is still maintaining a nice core. This is pulling on the surface center and keeping it close by, not allowing a major decoupling just yet. We still may see the surface center escape out into the Florida Straights along with the mid-level center.



Great explanation. Makes sense then why she's partially still in tact.

And that's not out of the question, since some of the models have shifted ENE.

Thanks Levi.
Conditions at 42056 as of
(4:50 pm CDT)
2150 GMT on 10/14/2010: Unit of Measure: English Metric Time Zone: Station Local Time Greenwich Mean Time [GMT]

Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 350 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 21.4 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 23.3 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 5.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.5 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): N ( 354 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.88 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.4 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.0 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 73.6 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 88.3 °F
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yup. Megi is expected to be a category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale when it makes landfall over Luzon. I wouldn't be surprised to see it intensify into a category 5 system considering the favorable environment conditions set to be around the system during the next few days.

Back later.



I hear ya. From what I've seen, usually the NHC would never predict a storm to go Cat 5 anyway unless it's already there. This is even despite near perfect conditions too. But at least I've never seen them do that before.
The SW Caribbean seems interesting, nothing organized. Is that what models develop into Richard?
113. JLPR2
I see Paula is still a 60mph TS, not bad...
And we got two disturbances too.
One in the western Caribbean:

Another in the CATL:
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
The SW Caribbean seems interesting, nothing organized. Is that what models develop into Richard?

I know GFS for sure. I want to say NOGAPS is the other major one but I'm not sure. I'll have to look at them tonight.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:

What's that over India?!
If that is the center on this image, it's closed.

BBL

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
The SW Caribbean seems interesting, nothing organized. Is that what models develop into Richard?


mhm.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

I know GFS for sure. I want to say NOGAPS is the other major one but I'm not sure. I'll have to look at them tonight.

CyberTeddy's blog showed the NOGAPS developing it into a strong TS by Wednesday I think.
Quoting Seastep:
If that is the center on this image, it's closed.

BBL


Do you have a link to where you got that image, since it's pretty cool-looking.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

What's that over India?!


CIMSS has it as an invest (97B)
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Do you have a link to where you got that image, since it's pretty cool-looking.


Animated Loop
Quoting oracle28:


The only reliable model this year has been the XTRP.
Maybe it's just me but it only seems to be accurate up to 1 hour out after that it's all over the place...LOL

Quoting stormpetrol:
I have never seen such a drastic shift in a cone from one advisory to the next, guess I'll have to eat crow with my predictions about it emerging off the south coast of Cuba LOL!!
It's one that's changed quite a bit. The K storm changed quite a bit back in 2005 as well. Of course this discussion will invite those who will start attacking the NHC for changing track. Their job is not to forecast a track and stick to it for arguments sake; their job is to save lives and protect property through information.

NHC PAULA Graphics Archive
18z GFS Day 7:

I must say lookin at the radar, Paula is looks to be producing some nasty weather in the Florida straits.
125. JLPR2
Quoting Seastep:
If that is the center on this image, it's closed.

BBL



That feature is now visible in infrared.
big northeaster is starting..u see the new low center.
Quoting Levi32:


Mid-level center is fighting to pull it back in though. No sign of losing latitude points yet. The extent of the decoupling, or the distance between mid and low-level centers, is not increasing. If anything they are getting slightly closer together with time, based on radar. You can actually see the surface center now on radar with the ghost mid-level center off to the northwest.

Hey Levi, Great Update This morning. Do you think Paula will exit Cuba soon? Or will it stay over Cuba and die out.
Link
Check this link Paula center is well intact and partially offshore S Cuba.
Quoting stormpetrol:
I must say lookin at the radar, Paula is looks to be producing some nasty weather in the Florida straits.

That is a pretty nasty cluster. The keys seem to be getting some moderate to steady rain, but nothing like that.
Quoting Levi32:
18z GFS Day 7:


GFS obviously develops that area in the SW Caribbean.
Quoting JLPR2:


That feature is now visible in infrared.

Almost looks like an eye.
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xo:
big northeaster is starting..u see the new low center.

I GOT BAD FEELING ABOUT THIS NORTHEASTER STORM SOMEONE GOING TO GET HIGH WINDS AND FLOOODING RAIN..
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Hey Levi, Great Update This morning. Do you think Paula will exit Cuba soon? Or will it stay over Cuba and die out.


I still don't think it will just die. While there's still a chance the low-level center decouples away and dissipates while the rest of the system heads out to the ENE, it is showing no signs of doing that yet. I still think the whole thing is most likely to exit through the Florida Straights as I was saying yesterday, though it may not emerge over water until it has already reached Miami's longitude.
Quoting Levi32:


I still don't think it will just die. While there's still a chance the low-level center decouples away and dissipates while the rest of the system heads out to the ENE, it is showing no signs of doing that yet. I still think the whole thing is most likely to exit through the Florida Straights as I was saying yesterday, though it may not emerge over water until it has already reached Miami's longitude.

I guess the anticipated low-level northwesterly flow behind the front in the GOM hasn't kicked in entirely yet to allow the LLC to decouple and head SE.
WATER TEMP COOLING OFF FAST IN THE GOM.
137. JLPR2
Not that new but interesting...
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

What's that over India?!
From the 18z JTWC ABIO10 text:

ABIO10 PGTW 141800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/141800Z-151800ZOCT2010//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.6N
90.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 88.4E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM EAST OF
VISAKHPATNAM, INDIA, AND HAS MOVED ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE BANDING REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND CONFINED
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THIS IS EVIDENT FROM A 141458Z METOP-A MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS, DERIVED FROM SHIP AND BUOY
REPORTS, ARE ALONG THE PERIMETER OF THE LLCC - CHARACTERISTIC OF A
CLASSIC MONSOON DEPRESSION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE
HIMALAYAS IN A ZONE OF MODERATE TO HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(30-35 KNOTS). THIS HAS BEEN THE MAIN FACTOR INHIBITNG FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

WOW WATCH THIS LOW ON THE NORTHEAST LOOK HOW BIG ITS GETTING AT AND END..WOW..
Actually viewing a sunset here in Key Biscayne. Drizzle stopped about 3 hrs. ago. Have a great night!
Quoting LightningCharmer:
Maybe it's just me but it only seems to be accurate up to 1 hour out after that it's all over the place...LOL

It's one that's changed quite a bit. The K storm changed quite a bit back in 2005 as well. Of course this discussion will invite those who will start attacking the NHC for changing track. Their job is not to forecast a track and stick to it for arguments sake; their job is to save lives and protect property through information.

NHC PAULA Graphics Archive

I have no problem with the NHC changing the track at all, I only say what " I think I see" I could be completely wrong anway and they are the experts, But bear in mind also that the experts can be caught off guard or be wrong every so often, we're only human no matter how smart or educated we are in any particular field!
Quoting cat5hurricane:

I guess the anticipated low-level northwesterly flow behind the front in the GOM hasn't kicked in entirely yet to allow the LLC to decouple and head SE.


It has, but some of the models and the NHC thought Paula would be weak enough to surrender to that flow. Instead, she is deep enough to still be carried ENE by the deep-layer flow, at least thus far.
143. DDR
Good evening all
Levi how's the precip maps for the caribbean looking,can you post a few?
Its very dry right now in most of the islands.
Cuba urges water conservation amid drought that leaves its reservoirs at 40 pct capacity

Cuba's sugar planting behind schedule due to drought

Hopefully, Paula does not cause any human suffering or loss of life, and limited property damage. Paula may be just what Cuba needs.
2010/287 - 10/14 at 16:05 UTC -- Tropical Storm Paula (18L) over Cuba.

Yea... that Nor'Easter is going to go bonkers soon.
Bombogenesis,
and starting the Fall NorEaster Season off with a swing.
Yee Hawww...
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

CyberTeddy's blog showed the NOGAPS developing it into a strong TS by Wednesday I think.

Yeah, you're right.
Quoting stormpetrol:

I have no problem with the NHC changing the track at all, I only say what " I think I see" I could be completely wrong anway and they are the experts, But bear in mind also that the experts can be caught off guard or be wrong every so often, we're only human no matter how smart or educated we are in any particular field!
Sorry if I gave you the idea, I was making an accusation with regard to your comment. That was not my intention. I just didn't want to invite all the, "What are they smoking at the NHC!?" type of comments that I see on here sometimes.

Yes they do make mistakes, and that's why I read this blog and others as well as view many websites during the tropical cyclone season; don't want to put all my eggs in one basket with information.
Quoting Levi32:


It has, but some of the models and the NHC thought Paula would be weak enough to surrender to that flow. Instead, she is deep enough to still be carried ENE by the deep-layer flow, at least thus far.

That's true
150. ackee
anyone think the NHC will colour the DISturbance in SW carrbean yellow at 8pm
Quoting ackee:
anyone think the NHC will colour the DISturbance in SW carrbean yellow at 8pm


Either that or the wave in the midAtlantique.
Reality, they have moved up dissipation to Saturday and very early.
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Looks like the 18Z GFS (500mb) completely bailed on Richard. 252 hours out doesn't show a thing near FL.

18Z GFS

Anything beyond 120hrs is much less reliable to me.
The only surprise for October is not the number of storms but how Eastern US has been protected. We may get an extra tropical nor'easter but that is only threat. We have 100mph shear already in GOM. This is why blog has been so quiet and October doomers moving on. The Carib is still going to create them but unless you live in Central America or western Carib island, we are safe.
Quoting centex:
The only surprise for October is not the number of storms but how Eastern US has been protected. We may get an extra tropical nor'easter but that is only threat. We have 100mph shear already in GOM. This is why blog has been so quiet and October doomers moving on. The Carib is still going to create them but unless you live in Central America or western Carib island, we are safe.

It's been quite a pattern that set up this month to keep these storms away from the GOM & SE CONUS
Quoting LightningCharmer:
Sorry if I gave you the idea, I was making an accusation with regard to your comment. That was not my intention. I just didn't want to invite all the, "What are they smoking at the NHC!?" type of comments that I see on here sometimes.

Yes they do make mistakes, and that's why I read this blog and others as well as view many websites during the tropical cyclone season; don't want to put all my eggs in one basket with information.

I understood clearly, you thought by commenting on my comment you would unintentionally stir the pot so to speak, I understood exactly what you meant , but wanted clear the air for anyone who might have took your comment the wrong way, sorry if I came off the wrong way, you made an excellent comment/point BTW.
Quoting centex:
The only surprise for October is not the number of storms but how Eastern US has been protected. We may get an extra tropical nor'easter but that is only threat. We have 100mph shear already in GOM. This is why blog has been so quiet and October doomers moving on. The Carib is still going to create them but unless you live in Central America or western Carib island, we are safe.

I think differently, but I thought the CONUS would be hit by now. However, I think the threat of a season isn't over until the season itself ends.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I think differently, but I thought the CONUS would be hit by now. However, I think the threat of a season isn't over until the season itself ends.
True and if pattern changes all bets are off. I'm looking for pattern changes and may only take a slight shift and FL gets nailed. Just saying that can't happen this week and October running out of time.
Sun beginning to rise over the western Pacific. Visible satellite imagery now starting to show Megi.

Winds in Havana at 6:55 pm were 41 gusting to 54 mph.
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
Winds in Havana at 6:55 pm were 41 gusting to 54 mph.
Can't be a good time to be vacationing in the keys.
The Southwest Caribbean convection is having MAJOR interaction with land - plus the low is very close to the equator, so getting spin is a real initial problem.
Paula still has a core intact and is on track to clear Cuba by the time she makes it to Miami's longitude, if the current heading holds. This is not getting stuck in the Caribbean.

I guess they still use 55mph.

...PAULA MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COAST OF CUBA...WIND GUST
TO 54 MPH REPORTED IN HAVANA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 82.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM E OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM W OF VERADERO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 MPH...90 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
Quoting Levi32:
Paula still has a core intact and is on track to clear Cuba by the time she makes it to Miami's longitude, if the current heading holds. This is not getting stuck in the Caribbean.

It's forcasted to clear Cuba to N than head ESE.
168. IKE
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE DRY TORTUGAS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

10% in the Caribbean. It begins..
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE AFTERWARDS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES LITTLE.
Quoting centex:
It's forcasted to clear Cuba to N than head ESE.


After they realized that the previous forecasts of it dying over Cuba or getting stuck in the Caribbean were off. The current NHC forecast track is becoming more accurate now that we are getting right down to it.
Quoting IKE:
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE DRY TORTUGAS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.


You guys are so lucky up in the CONUS, while I got hit by a hurricane, a handful of Invests, and truckloads of T-Waves with heavy rains.
Quoting centex:
The only surprise for October is not the number of storms but how Eastern US has been protected. We may get an extra tropical nor'easter but that is only threat. We have 100mph shear already in GOM. This is why blog has been so quiet and October doomers moving on. The Carib is still going to create them but unless you live in Central America or western Carib island, we are safe.


You can't say we're safe until the season is over. It is true the forecasts for U.S. impact have been overdone by all, and we're all thankful for that. However, it's not over until it's over. We're about to have yet another storm develop and you can still punch things into the SE US in October. Wilma occurred in late October. It can still happen, so be ready.
Quoting Levi32:


You can't say we're safe until the season is over. It is true the forecasts for U.S. impact have been overdone by all, and we're all thankful for that. However, it's not over until it's over. We're about to have yet another storm develop and you can still punch things into the SE US in October. Wilma occurred in late October. It can still happen, so be ready.
Do you see any pattern change in next couple of weeks?
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Yes, we have been fortunate this year. All of the activity has been aimed at third world countries. We have dodged the bullet.


Please! Don't jinx us!!!! Third world countries?

Guess they dont count, huh?
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Yes, we have been fortunate this year. All of the activity has been aimed at third world countries. We have dodged the bullet.


I just love how you manage to say that like it was nothing. Not.
Quoting Levi32:
Paula still has a core intact and is on track to clear Cuba by the time she makes it to Miami's longitude, if the current heading holds. This is not getting stuck in the Caribbean.

Looks like She's holding up well so far.
Quoting centex:
Do you see any pattern change in next couple of weeks?


Possibly. We just had a negative SOI burst in the Pacific which has implications down the road in North America during the 5-15 day period, in other words a disruption of the consistent trough pattern that has dominated the east recently. Typhoon Megi also supports this, as it is likely to track west across the Philippines and continue westward, indicating more ridging in the far east, which tends to teleconnect to ridging over the eastern United States.

A more zonal flow and more ridging over the east could direct Caribbean storms farther north before getting recurved to the northeast. That's why you see some runs of the GFS punching Richard into central America. However, it's dang hard to get a storm in the Caribbean to just move west into central America and die in October. Most of them eventually get brought back out into the Gulf of Mexico. Thus, we should be on the lookout. I still feel October will be a solidly active month from beginning to end, as I said back in September. Can't let our guard down yet.
AL, 18, 2010101500, , BEST, 0, 230N, 820W, 45, 1002, TS
Quoting cat5hurricane:

It's been quite a pattern that set up this month to keep these storms away from the GOM & SE CONUS


dry as a doorknob

99L will likely be initiated Early or late tomorrow
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
AL, 18, 2010101500, , BEST, 0, 230N, 820W, 45, 1002, TS
The will likely downgrade it to 50 at the 11
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I just love how you manage to say that like it was nothing. Not.
We were not even able to get fed dollars for Hermine. Feds said we could foot the bill without Fed aid. While that can be debated it just goes to show not a big tropical year.
Quoting doorman79:


Please! Don't jinx us!!!! Third world countries?

Guess they dont count, huh?


Good 'ol Kanada now out of the Security Council...
And into the Hurricane Third World.
lol
TS.Paula's heading had turned northward to (7.2degrees east of) EastNorthEast
from its previous heading of dueEast
TS.Paula's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions had increased to ~17.7mph(~28.4km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~15mph(~24.1km/h)
Category1
14Oct 12amGMT - - 21.8n85.6w - - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#10A
14Oct 03amGMT - - 21.9n85.4w - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv.#11
14Oct 06amGMT - - 22.2n85.2w - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv..#11A
14Oct 09amGMT - - 22.3n84.9w - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 999mb -- NHC.Adv.#12
14Oct 12pmGMT - - 22.7n84.5w - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 999mb -- NHC.Adv.#12A
TropicalStorm
14Oct 03pmGMT - - 22.8n84.1w - - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - - 1000mb -- NHC.Adv.#13
14Oct 06pmGMT - - 22.8n83.5w - - 65mph(~104.6km/h) - - 1002mb -- NHC.Adv.#13A
14Oct 09pmGMT - - 22.8n82.8w - - 60mph(~96.6km/h) - - - 1002mb -- NHC.Adv.#14
15Oct 12pmGMT - - 23.0n82.0w - - 55mph(~88.5km/h) - - - 1002mb -- NHC.Adv.#14A

Copy &paste 21.8n85.6w, 21.9n85.4w, 22.2n85.2w, 22.3n84.9w, 22.7n84.5w-22.8n84.1w, 22.8n84.1w-22.8n83.5w, 22.8n83.5w-22.8n82.8w, 22.8n82.8w-23.0n82.0w, cun, mia, nbw, 23.0n82.0w-23.111n81.56w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~1hour from now to entry into the Atlantic near Matanzas,Cuba

^ The easternmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
Will 99 be a threat to the west coast of FL?
from global warming to global frying in six quick months.
Quoting centex:
We were not even able to get fed dollars for Hermine. Feds said we could foot the bill without Fed aid. While that can be debated it just goes to show not a big tropical year.


And the 6 billion Karl caused?
Amazing the models STILL have no idea what to do with Paula. Seems like most keep it north of Cuba though now!

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
AL, 18, 2010101500, , BEST, 0, 230N, 820W, 45, 1002, TS

Weird how it's pressure hasn't risen.
Quoting Levi32:


Possibly. We just had a negative SOI burst in the Pacific which has implications down the road in North America during the 5-15 day period, in other words a disruption of the consistent trough pattern that has dominated the east recently. Typhoon Megi also supports this, as it is likely to track west across the Philippines and continue westward, indicating more ridging in the far east, which tends to teleconnect to ridging over the eastern United States.

A more zonal flow and more ridging over the east could direct Caribbean storms farther north before getting recurved to the northeast. That's why you see some runs of the GFS punching Richard into central America. However, it's dang hard to get a storm in the Caribbean to just move west into central America and die in October. Most of them eventually get brought back out into the Gulf of Mexico. Thus, we should be on the lookout. I still feel October will be a solidly active month from beginning to end, as I said back in September. Can't let our guard down yet.
Hi Levi, I was wondering does 3 to 4 storms, 2 to 3 Hurricanes, and 0 to 1 Major hurricane(s) Sound reasonable for My October Outlook? I think it sounds about right now that we could possibly see Richard. (My season Prediction is 19 Named Storms, 10 Hurricanes, And 6 Major Hurricanes.
Here I am.. I was wondering why it hasn't started raining yet. The rain dissapates as it hits the mountains! Why?

Water in frying pan analogy comes to mind with Paula. Hot dry air stifles her.
She will gracefully expire in the Bahamas and bring some nice rains there.
That's my prediction based on the moon and the misbegotten.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Hi Levi, I was wondering does 3 to 4 storms, 2 to 3 Hurricanes, and 0 to 1 Major hurricane(s) Sound reasonable for My October Outlook? I think it sounds about right now that we could possibly see Richard. (My season Prediction is 19 Named Storms, 10 Hurricanes, And 6 Major Hurricanes.


In other words 1 or 2 more storms and 1 more hurricane for the rest of the month. Sounds about right, but don't be surprised if both are hurricanes.
Quoting centex:
We were not even able to get fed dollars for Hermine. Feds said we could foot the bill without Fed aid. While that can be debated it just goes to show not a big tropical year.


See,

Here is a man from the state that wants to secede from the union, and Fed dollars were not used. Bye the way isn't that chaucier in your avatar? Now thats America lol
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I just love how you manage to say that like it was nothing. Not.
Do your research. That term is in common use by experts and includes ALL of Central America and surrounding islands. It does not in any way mean that they don't matter, only that they are not yet on the road to industrialization.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


And the 6 billion Karl caused?

This season has had some very damaging storms:
Alex: $1.885 Billion
Bonnie: ---
Colin: ---
Danielle: ---
Earl: ~$40 million
Fiona: ---
Gaston:---
Hermine: $150 million
Igor: at least $100 million

Julia: ---
Karl: $5.6 billion
Lisa: ---
Matthew: ???
Nicole: $152 million
Otto: $56.5 million
Paula: ???
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Yes, we have been fortunate this year. All of the activity has been aimed at third world countries. We have dodged the bullet.


Umm...what?
Quoting Levi32:


In other words 1 or 2 more storms and 1 more hurricane for the rest of the month. Sounds about right, but don't be surprised if both are hurricanes.
True, we have already seen Hurricane Otto, and Paula, and Richard will be in the same boiling waters as Paula so it is likely that it could be at least a cat.1, Thanks
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Do your research. That term is in common use by experts and includes ALL of Central America and surrounding islands. It does not in any way mean that they don't matter, only that they are not yet on the road to industrialization.
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Do your research. That term is in common use by experts and includes ALL of Central America and surrounding islands. It does not in any way mean that they don't matter, only that they are not yet on the road to industrialization.


Hell,

Half of New Orleans is a third world country!
Bet you don't like that one, and I am from here!!!
Quoting Neapolitan:


Umm...what?


I didn't have to see that.
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Do your research. That term is in common use by experts and includes ALL of Central America and surrounding islands. It does not in any way mean that they don't matter, only that they are not yet on the road to industrialization.


I know what a third world country is thank you. You made it sound like that because they're a third world country their suffering is less than what would have happened if a hurricane hit the United States. Am I saying that was your intention, no. I am addressing the fact people still believe that because a season didn't have a US hit it was no less of a deadly and destructive season.

Remember the 2007 season? Or the 1998 season? The US wasn't nearly as badly hit as the third world countries were.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

This season has had some very damaging storms:
Alex: $1.885 Billion
Bonnie: ---
Colin: ---
Danielle: ---
Earl: ~$40 million
Fiona: ---
Gaston:---
Hermine: $150 million
Igor: at least $100 million

Julia: ---
Karl: $5.6 billion
Lisa: ---
Matthew: ???
Nicole: $152 million
Otto: $56.5 million
Paula: ???
Yeah, just mostly outside of the US
Mexico
Honduras
Nicaragua
Brownsville
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Sun beginning to rise over the western Pacific. Visible satellite imagery now starting to show Megi.

beautiful but deadly
Quoting Chicklit:
Mexico
Honduras
Nicaragua
Yep, basically
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Yeah, just mostly outside of the US

Earl & Otto still hit me though.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
beautiful but deadly
yeah when it gets to the philipines as a cat. 4
Right we can add Puerto Rico to the list.
Didn't you get over 10 inches?
Were there any areas of 15?
Quoting Neapolitan:


Umm...what?
We here in the USA have been fortunate this year. Some of our 3rd World neighbors have not been so fortunate. I wish no one would have been harmed this year.
Quoting doorman79:


See,

Here is a man from the state that wants to secede from the union, and Fed dollars were not used. Bye the way isn't that chaucier in your avatar? Now thats America lol
No SRV, and that is american. Maybe those who question these things are the un-americans. They show use like we don't want to be.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
yeah when it gets to the philipines as a cat. 4

Or 5. Hopefully not!
Luzon again? I'm too tired to look.
Somebody please post Phillipines imagery.
Is it going north or south of the main island?
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Earl & Otto still hit me though.
yeah 2 out 16
217. ackee
question for the blog steering pattern in SW carrbean will it reamain the same next week system that do devlop track west into central America or will it shift more NE or NORTH
Quoting Chicklit:
Right we can add Puerto Rico to the list.
Didn't you get over 10 inches?
Were there any areas of 15?

All I know is that there was a lot of areas around here with at least 3 inches this season. One of our rainiest years EVER.
http://www.weather.bm/maps/chart3.jpg
Quoting Levi32:


Possibly. We just had a negative SOI burst in the Pacific which has implications down the road in North America during the 5-15 day period, in other words a disruption of the consistent trough pattern that has dominated the east recently. Typhoon Megi also supports this, as it is likely to track west across the Philippines and continue westward, indicating more ridging in the far east, which tends to teleconnect to ridging over the eastern United States.

A more zonal flow and more ridging over the east could direct Caribbean storms farther north before getting recurved to the northeast. That's why you see some runs of the GFS punching Richard into central America. However, it's dang hard to get a storm in the Caribbean to just move west into central America and die in October. Most of them eventually get brought back out into the Gulf of Mexico. Thus, we should be on the lookout. I still feel October will be a solidly active month from beginning to end, as I said back in September. Can't let our guard down yet.
I can agree Norcross just made that point that the reliable model has a system developing in the carib. next week the steering pattern shifts a bit north leaving the door open for a better chance of a land falling system in the us.It is not over yet.
Thanks for everything you do here Levi
Aussie usually posts Phillipines weather because his wife is from there.
Another one missing is DestinJeff.
Hmmmm....?
To switch The Subject off of Paula and Future 99L.
Looks like Megi maybe the first Supertyphoon of the western pacific typhoon season.
223. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

All I know is that there was a lot of areas around here with at least 3 inches this season. One of our rainiest years EVER.


20 something inches fell in south PR due to Otto, but yeah, many areas in the north have gotten lots of rain too, from Pre-Bonnie, Earl, Fiona and Gaston.
What season in the past have had this many TCs with no hurricane strike on the lower 48?
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
yeah 2 out 16

Earl knocked out power, water & trees, while Otto caused $6.5 million here due to destroyed roads and flooding.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
beautiful but deadly
Indeed. Megi will be causing a lot of problems to the Philippines in a few days.

Quoting Chicklit:
Luzon again? I'm too tired to look.
Somebody please post Phillipines imagery.
Is it going north or south of the main island?
It's still quite a bit away, East-Southeast of the area. Only a cat. 1 or 2 havent checked lately right now but likely be a monster.
Quoting JLPR2:


20 something inches fell in south PR due to Otto, but yeah, many areas in the north have gotten lots of rain too, from Pre-Bonnie, Earl, Fiona and Gaston.

Ugh why is this year so disastrous?
Quoting doorman79:


Hell,

Half of New Orleans is a third world country!
Bet you don't like that one, and I am from here!!!
Yes it is a 3rd world city, not country. Luckily for me, I live in Metairie, which has not yet become 3rd world.
Quoting centex:
No SRV, and that is american. Maybe those who question these things are the un-americans. They show use like we don't want to be.


Well, They didn't pull it out there hat! I do have to say that Stevie is all American!
Quoting Chicklit:
Luzon again? I'm too tired to look.
Somebody please post Phillipines imagery.
Is it going north or south of the main island?


Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Indeed. Megi will be causing a lot of problems to the Philippines in a few days.


At least it isn't like last year out there.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Yeah, just mostly outside of the US

Your point being?

Look, the only people who think that this season has been a bust damage/destruction/misery-wise are those, small-minded, provincial "American Exceptionalism" meatheads who believe the world ends at the US border. Dozens killed, billions and billions of dollars in damage, and countless stories of suffering and anguish have already happened due to 2010's tropical weather (and the season's nowhere near over); if you live in Mexico and your home was destroyed, your child was drowned, your food supply was devastated, and your livelihood was lost, I doubt your nights of sleeping on a cot in the street will be made more comfortable by the knowledge that at least Americans are safe so far this year.
235. JLPR2
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
We here in the USA have been fortunate this year. Some of our 3rd World neighbors have not been so fortunate. I wish no one would have been harmed this year.


The states were lucky, but didn't the US Virgin islands file a disaster claim or something due to Earl?
Often times, Western Pacific typhoons are underestimated due to the large size of the basin, which allows the storms to pile up more heat and thus strengthen. Would not be surprised to see Megi attain Category 5.
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Yes it is a 3rd world city, not country. Luckily for me, I live in Metairie, which has not yet become 3rd world.


Drat! I was just there like a month ago. We should have met up. ;)
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Earl knocked out power, water & trees, while Otto caused $6.5 million here due to destroyed roads and flooding.
yes two nice shockers but nothing like an IKE, KATRINA, IVAN, RITA, WILMA, CHARLEY, FRANCES, OR ANDREW. This list can go on and on But i'll stop for now.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Your point being?

Look, the only people who think that this season has been a bust damage/destruction/misery-wise are those, small-minded, provincial "American Exceptionalism" meatheads who believe the world ends at the US border. Dozens killed, billions and billions of dollars in damage, and countless stories of suffering and anguish have already happened due to 2010's tropical weather (and the season's nowhere near over); if you live in Mexico and your home was destroyed, your child was drowned, your food supply was devastated, and your livelihood was lost, I doubt your nights of sleeping on a cot in the street will be made more comfortable by the knowledge that at least Americans are safe so far this year.

222 deaths to be exact.
240. JLPR2
Quoting Neapolitan:

Your point being?

Look, the only people who think that this season has been a bust damage/destruction/misery-wise are those, small-minded, provincial "American Exceptionalism" meatheads who believe the world ends at the US border. Dozens killed, billions and billions of dollars in damage, and countless stories of suffering and anguish have already happened due to 2010's tropical weather (and the season's nowhere near over); if you live in Mexico and your home was destroyed, your child was drowned, your food supply was devastated, and your livelihood was lost, I doubt your nights of sleeping on a cot in the street will be made more comfortable by the knowledge that at least Americans are safe so far this year.


Ha! You got an excellent brain on your head! :D
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
It's still quite a bit away, East-Southeast of the area. Only a cat. 1 or 2 havent checked lately right now but likely be a monster.


Looks like he's going to live up to his name.
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Yes it is a 3rd world city, not country. Luckily for me, I live in Metairie, which has not yet become 3rd world.


It's well on its way! There is a couple of nice subdivisions left but thats bout it. The gangs have taken over the malls and crime is on the rise!
Quoting scott39:
What season in the past have had this many TCs with no hurricane strike on the lower 48?


mighta been '55.
Mother Nature wants to cut Mexico off from the United States so she sent most of her storms there this season. The rest went Novia Scotia way and sheared off the northeast part of the continent lol.
Rounding process in place.
Also known as erosion which was pretty substantial along the eastern seaboard due to two or was it three hurricanes passing with ??miles offshore. Sorry, not good with the details but remember the general season.
Luckily Haiti has escaped the worst this season which was for what everyone had hoped.
But it ain't over til the Fat Lady sings.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
yes two nice shockers but nothing like an IKE, KATRINA, IVAN, RITA, WILMA, CHARLEY, FRANCES, OR ANDREW. This list can go on and on But i'll stop for now.

We haven't seen anything in 6 years until now. That ruined the weather lol.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MEGI (T1013)
9:00 AM JST October 15 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Megi (975 hPa) located at 14.5N 137.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.0N 133.2E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
48 HRS: 18.3N 128.7E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
72 HRS: 18.5N 124.5E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Strong Typhoon)
Quoting scott39:
What season in the past have had this many TCs with no hurricane strike on the lower 48?


I can think of four years. It's more than you think. They are:

1951
1990
2000
2001
Quoting Chicklit:


mighta been '55.


No. 1955 had Connie, Diane, and Ione impact North Carolina as hurricanes.
Quoting doorman79:


It's well on its way! There is a couple of nice subdivisions left but thats bout it. The gangs have taken over the malls and crime is on the rise!
Your a jerk, sould not be news. Find somewhere else to post crap.
249. JLPR2
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
yes two nice shockers but nothing like an IKE, KATRINA, IVAN, RITA, WILMA, CHARLEY, FRANCES, OR ANDREW. This list can go on and on But i'll stop for now.


Too US centric!
Name some like Mitch, Felix or Dean, you know that hit other places.

And actually earl was a cat 4 at that point in case you didnt know...
Quoting JLPR2:


Too US centric!
Name some like Mitch, Felix or Dean, you know that hit other places.

And actually earl was a cat 4 at that point in case you didnt know...


I don't think he's referring to the intensity of the storms as much as he is the damage. While I'm not defending him by any means, he's certainly correct in asserting that we've, fortunately, not had any Ike's, Mitch's, Andrew's, Gustav's, Isidore's, Georges', etc.
Is Paula emerging into the Florida straights right now?
Quoting centex:
Your a jerk, sould not be news. Find somewhere else to post crap.


its the truth
Quoting KoritheMan:


I can think of four years. It's more than you think. They are:

1951
1990
2000
2001
That is suprising.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Indeed. Megi will be causing a lot of problems to the Philippines in a few days.

this will poss be the biggie so far in the west p basin

256. JLPR2
Quoting KoritheMan:


I don't think he's referring to the intensity of the storms as much as he is the damage. While I'm not defending him by any means, he's certainly correct in asserting that we've, fortunately, not had any Ike's, Mitch's, Andrew's, Gustav's, Isidore's, Georges', etc.


But check your list, now that one isnt US centric. :]
We could add Gilbert to the list.
Quoting centex:
Your a jerk, sould not be news. Find somewhere else to post crap.


The problem with us Americans! Its cool to say no one else matters, but God forbid we talk about ourselves!
Quoting scott39:
That is suprising.


Pleasantly so. But it doesn't happen often, historically, so enjoy it while you can.
Quoting JLPR2:


But check your list, now that one isnt US centric. :]
We could add Gilbert to the list.


Yeah, I make sure that I'm not US-centric. ;)

Also, I forgot about Karl, which struck Veracruz as a major hurricane. That should count, I think.
Quoting ParanoidAndroid:
Is Paula emerging into the Florida straights right now?


It very well may be, as the surface center appears to be getting pulled back under the mid-level center and trying to become vertically stacked once again, but you can't guarantee that based on radar. However, it looks promising.
RAMMB Floater 1 now on Caribbean AOI.
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.0N 133.2E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
48 HRS: 18.3N 128.7E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
72 HRS: 18.5N 124.5E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Strong Typhoon)


That's a bad a storm.
Well organized typhoon, excellent spiral banding. I can tell you this will become a powerful typhoon.

Quoting KoritheMan:


Pleasantly so. But it doesn't happen often, historically, so enjoy it while you can.
Is the stearing pattern going to be the same for possible Richard as it is for Paula?
Classic CybrTed
Quoting ParanoidAndroid:
Is Paula emerging into the Florida straights right now?


squeezing is more like it. she's about to get smushed between the mountains and the hot dry air.
China Meteorological Administration

Typhoon Megi

** WTPQ20 BABJ 150000 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY MEGI 1013 (1013) INITIAL TIME 150000 UTC
00HR 14.3N 137.2E 975HPA 33M/S
30KTS 200KM
50KTS 60KM
P12HR WNW 18KM/H
P+24HR 16.7N 133.6E 950HPA 45M/S
P+48HR 18.1N 128.8E 930HPA 55M/S
P+72HR 17.9N 124.0E 920HPA 60M/S (120 knots)
P+96HR 17.3N 119.8E 950HPA 45M/S
P+120HR 17.1N 116.9E 945HPA 48M/S=

----
CMA uses 2 minute sustained winds average for their advisories
270. JLPR2
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yeah, I make sure that I'm not US-centric. ;)

Also, I forgot about Karl, which struck Veracruz as a major hurricane. That should count, I think.


Yeah, but the idea was more of storms of past years.
So far this year Karl has been the costliest.
The center is looking much less well-defined, Levi.
Quoting TOMSEFLA:
were is stormw??????????????
Gone, kicked out because he was advertising his personal website and trying to get bloggers to move to his site.

anyway, do that in email please.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
China Meteorological Administration

Typhoon Megi

** WTPQ20 BABJ 150000 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY MEGI 1013 (1013) INITIAL TIME 150000 UTC
00HR 14.3N 137.2E 975HPA 33M/S
30KTS 200KM
50KTS 60KM
P12HR WNW 18KM/H
P+24HR 16.7N 133.6E 950HPA 45M/S
P+48HR 18.1N 128.8E 930HPA 55M/S
P+72HR 17.9N 124.0E 920HPA 60M/S (120 knots)
P+96HR 17.3N 119.8E 950HPA 45M/S
P+120HR 17.1N 116.9E 945HPA 48M/S=

----
CMA uses 2 minute sustained winds average for their advisories
I like to use the JTWC because they use one-minute sustained winds. The two-minute sustained winds from CMA and ten-minute sustained winds from JMA messes me up.
Funny the wind speed is slower at the lower pressure.
Quoting Chicklit:

no that happened later i think
I'm a bottom line kind of guy and that is the way I saw it. Don't think too far from truth.
Yes, I realize the CV season is, climatologically-speaking, over. But a couple of things:

1) There have been CV-type storms into the end of October in the past;
2) Any storm that comes off of Africa is not necessarily a CV-type storm (for instance, several of 2005's post-September storms began in the central/east Atlantic);
3) Waters in the east and central Atlantic are still very warm (in fact, October is generally when these waters reach peak temperature);

In this image, there's a very healthy system moving off of Africa. The swirl in the lower left has been declared a pouch (PGI57L), so at least a few people are watching it...

NOTE: I am not saying this will develop into a named storm, nor am I saying that if it does, it'll cross the entire Atlantic and do damage anywhere. I'm merely pointing out what, IMO, could be an AOI in a day or two. That's all...

Click for large loop:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image
Quoting Chicklit:

anyway, do that in email please.


+1,000
Quoting Neapolitan:
Yes, I realize the CV season is, climatologically-speaking, over. But a couple of things:

1) There have been CV-type storms into the end of October in the past;
2) Any storm that comes off of Africa is not necessarily a CV-type storm (for instance, several of 2005's post-September strorms began in the central/east Atlantic);
3) Waters in the east and central Atlantic are still very warm (in fact, October is generally when these waters reach peak temperature);

In this image, there's a very healthy system moving off of Africa. The swirl in the lower left has been declared a pouch (PGI57L), so at least a few people are watching it...

NOTE: I am not saying this will develop into a named storm, nor am I saying that if it does, it'll cross the entire Atlantic and do damage anywhere. I'm merely pointing out what, IMO, could be an AOI in a day or two. That's all...

Click for large loop:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image


what a wishcaster... :p
281. MahFL
Yellow circle Carib.
Quoting Chicklit:

no that happened later i think


skin wasn't thick enough to take criticism imo. o well. history.

So Paula's getting squeezed and looking worse than ever, I agree. But the circulation center looks to be mostly over the straights now
Quoting centex:
Gone, kicked out because he was advertising his personal website and trying to get bloggers to move to his site.
wow then seeya
stormw. no class stormw i will tune you out.
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Yes, we have been fortunate this year. All of the activity has been aimed at third world countries. We have dodged the bullet.


Great comment there bud. I am from a 3rd world country and so is my whole family. Trust me, suffering and misery is much greater in a 3rd world country than in the USA. Obviously you haven't been out of the USA. In Caracas, Venezuela where I'm from, poor people (I ain't talking about poor US people that can't drive a BMW so they drive a 1980's Buick) build houses out of cardboard, aluminum, or whatever they could find in the Government owned land (Mostly hills in Caracas) and when there is a simple thunderstorm many kids die. So I would MUCH rather a hurricane come over to the USA where people are gonna be hot because they'll lose power for 3 - 4 days and then have to put up with the hassle of the insurance companies and the contractors fixing their roofs than lose lives (LITTLE KIDS) and increase the poverty, misery, and starvation.

Don't think 3rd world countries don't have people that suffer. It's like they say in Venezuela, you might be a gringo but your $H!T stinks just as bad as mine.

I can tell you didn't mean any harm in your comment but I just want to let you know others have feelings too
Quoting MahFL:
Yellow circle Carib.


AOI/xx/xx
mark
12.55n/80.88w

287. JLPR2
Quoting Neapolitan:
Yes, I realize the CV season is, climatologically-speaking, over. But a couple of things:

1) There have been CV-type storms into the end of October in the past;
2) Any storm that comes off of Africa is not necessarily a CV-type storm (for instance, several of 2005's post-September storms began in the central/east Atlantic);
3) Waters in the east and central Atlantic are still very warm (in fact, October is generally when these waters reach peak temperature);

In this image, there's a very healthy system moving off of Africa. The swirl in the lower left has been declared a pouch (PGI57L), so at least a few people are watching it...

NOTE: I am not saying this will develop into a named storm, nor am I saying that if it does, it'll cross the entire Atlantic and do damage anywhere. I'm merely pointing out what, IMO, could be an AOI in a day or two. That's all...

Click for large loop:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image


That's a nice looking disturbance, rather large too!
But I watch even if they are out of season, if the conditions are right there is no reason they couldn't develop.
Some Of the past Major storms to impact the US From 1960 On to 2010...
Donna, Carla, Betsy, Beulah, Camille, Celia, Carmen, Eloise, Frederic, Allen, Alicia, Elena, Hugo, Bob, Andrew, Opal, Goerges, Mitch, Bret, Floyd, Lili, Isabel, Ivan, Frances, Jeanne, Charley, Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Dolly, Ike, Gustav And, Earl.
Paula gone yet?
Megi's eyewall has been developing gradually throughout the day. A 21:15 UTC SSMI microwave overpass revealed a relatively vigorous eyewall with only the southwestern semicircle open. I expect an eye to become visible on satellite imagery sometime during the next 12 hours or so. It should also be noted that the eye will be relatively small, no larger than 15 miles in diameter.

Quoting 285. aprinz1979 1:13 AM GMT on October 15, 2010

"El sur tambien existe" - Mira el link y escucha la letra
Link
Quoting Chicklit:
Right we can add Puerto Rico to the list.
Didn't you get over 10 inches?
Were there any areas of 15?


And how much rain did they get?
sebastianflorida

now is that really needed

thats once
Quoting Neapolitan:

Your point being?

Look, the only people who think that this season has been a bust damage/destruction/misery-wise are those, small-minded, provincial "American Exceptionalism" meatheads who believe the world ends at the US border. Dozens killed, billions and billions of dollars in damage, and countless stories of suffering and anguish have already happened due to 2010's tropical weather (and the season's nowhere near over); if you live in Mexico and your home was destroyed, your child was drowned, your food supply was devastated, and your livelihood was lost, I doubt your nights of sleeping on a cot in the street will be made more comfortable by the knowledge that at least Americans are safe so far this year.

Dude I enjoy your words but you are way toooo intense for me.
Quoting JupiterFL:


Podiatrists office.
ha ha miss that character nevertheless we will really miss him offseason
can the planet overcome man's stupidity
or do we have ringside seats to its destruction
Wow, she really fell apart once the sun went down.
307. JLPR2
Quoting Chicklit:
can the planet overcome man's stupidity?


Sadly I doubt it, but there is the ignore button that works wonders. XD
This beast is defiantly gonna be a problem.
MEGGI
Quoting Ameister12:
This beast is defiantly gonna be a problem.
Where do you find the floaters?

Never mind.
Seems like man stupidity has let us to a dead end.... What model are can we copy from mankind that REALLY works and solves problems???
Quoting Chicklit:
can the planet overcome man's stupidity?
Quoting Ameister12:
This beast is defiantly gonna be a problem.

"defiantly" is good...

Good evening all.
Showers and gusty winds here this afternoon and this evening.
Very nice temp. drop too.

77F right now.
alright bud please just drop it and let the experts teach us about the tropics
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It intensified into a severe typhoon as of 2100 UTC. The JTWC forecasts for it to rapidly intensify tomorrow and become a super typhoon during the next few days.
It may even achieve the new Wet Pac classification of "Super Duper Typhoon".

My money is still on Richard.
Quoting pottery:

"defiantly" is good...

Good evening all.
Showers and gusty winds here this afternoon and this evening.
Very nice temp. drop too.


Hey Pottery, Orca!

Remember when Shen give you chills the other day!!!!
Quoting doorman79:


Hey Pottery, Orca!

Remember when Shen give you chills the other day!!!!

I do!
And I hope he keeps them to himself this time around.
Too bad for Phillipines.....This is Pacific Megi.....
I say this we may get 99L and maybe 90L by the end of the weekend and maybe TS Richard and TD#20 later
Quoting aprinz1979:
just drop it. A fruit cake is someone that when threatened dials 911 and his problems are solved. When you learn how to survive in the streets and learn how to defend yourself and stay alive then you can call someone a fruit cake. Until then, keep your mouth shut or else keep your phone by you so you can call 911 and they can save you. Or just do what you do, sit behind a PC in the safety of your home and insult people in a forum.

+1000 Amigo, yes there are other human beings in the world some just don't realize it, yet they wonder why the hatred, yet I'm pro -american though not american, but I clearly understand where you're coming from!
Impressive typhoon. Likely that Megi is already a category 2 system on the Saffir-Simpson scale. (Winds are currently up to 90mph.)

Quoting centex:
Gone, kicked out because he was advertising his personal website and trying to get bloggers to move to his site.


That is now how it went down, when he said he was leaving, people ASKED for his new information; so he gave it to them

Every person that is on his site from here, ASKED for the site and his other information.
Paula's Clouds Now Leaving South Florida..

Quoting 954FtLCane:

Dude I enjoy your words but you are way toooo intense for me.


Oh, c'mon, I'm not that intense. At least not all the time. Just trying to help some of brethren open their eyes and broaden their world view... ;-)
Megi seems like the Andrew of the West Pacific, similar path and nothing else happened either year (in their respective ocean)
Quoting Chicklit:
can the planet overcome man's stupidity
or do we have ringside seats to its destruction


We have had ring side seats here in South La for years! My people(native American) have watched the waters take the land in the century. Of course, we adapt as I am in construction, another great industry lol ;P
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Get rid of that lunatic Chavez and maybe things might get better.

I do hope that you are not basing your remarks on "knowledge" gained in the Media....
Quoting Neapolitan:

Your point being?

Look, the only people who think that this season has been a bust damage/destruction/misery-wise are those, small-minded, provincial "American Exceptionalism" meatheads who believe the world ends at the US border. Dozens killed, billions and billions of dollars in damage, and countless stories of suffering and anguish have already happened due to 2010's tropical weather (and the season's nowhere near over); if you live in Mexico and your home was destroyed, your child was drowned, your food supply was devastated, and your livelihood was lost, I doubt your nights of sleeping on a cot in the street will be made more comfortable by the knowledge that at least Americans are safe so far this year.
??? Did I miss a landfalling major causing hundreds of deaths, US or otherwise?
I don't think even Mexico has really had it all that bad compared to what could have been...

*someone is about to post something about even a single death is significant*

Okay, how many fatalities can be pinned on the entire hurricane season? (Really, what is the number?) Has it even passed [edit] 223? Sure, one isn't good, but if we could have this year every year, that would be GREAT! (compared to what could be, of course)
Quoting pottery:

I do hope that you are not basing your remarks on "knowledge" gained in the Media....


I'm pretty sure that most people on this forum would agree that Chavez is a lunatic. On the other hand, the original poster might be designated that as well.
Quoting pottery:

I do hope that you are not basing your remarks on "knowledge" gained in the Media....


Ya know, I just get tired of the "we" are better mentality. Whether its religion, politics, country, wealth, or whatever. Hate is the root of it, and it sucks!!!!
Quoting doorman79:


Ya know, I just get tired of the "we" are better mentality. Whether its religion, politics, country, wealth, or whatever. Hate is the root of it, and it sucks!!!!


+1 :)
Quoting doorman79:


Hey Pottery, Orca!

Remember when Shen give you chills the other day!!!!
Gave em to myself reading back.

On a happier note. Got a wonderful case of the chills last night watching the positive side of Humanity in Chile last night. Viva Chile!!
Quoting Orcasystems:


+1 :)


Thank you Orca!
Quoting LowerCal:

Hurricane Bound For Texas Slowed By Large Land Mass To The South
LOL. Hadn't seen that one in a while.
Quoting doorman79:


Ya know, I just get tired of the "we" are better mentality. Whether its religion, politics, country, wealth, or whatever. Hate is the root of it, and it sucks!!!!

+1000 , a breath of fresh air, finally a voice of reason and understanding!!
Quoting Neapolitan:


Oh, c'mon, I'm not that intense. At least not all the time. Just trying to help some of brethren open their eyes and broaden their world view... ;-)
What about the sistern?
Quoting LowerCal:

Hurricane Bound For Texas Slowed By Large Land Mass To The South


Ok. now that is funny... sadly its to true of the attitude of many on here... but very funny.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Gave em to myself reading back.

On a happier note. Got a wonderful case of the chills last night watching the positive side of Humanity in Chile last night. Viva Chile!!


And that shows what man can do!

Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Geez, too many fruitcake pc types on this blog! Yet you call me a gringo.
BTW, gringos just saved all those people in Chile.


But Shen,

It was all thanks to the Gringo!
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Gave em to myself reading back.

On a happier note. Got a wonderful case of the chills last night watching the positive side of Humanity in Chile last night. Viva Chile!!

How true!! Felt the same way, What a happy ending, stories like this could make us same like one big happy family, too often it is short lived!
he left
Quoting JupiterFL:


I'm pretty sure that most people on this forum would agree that Chavez is a lunatic. On the other hand, the original poster might be designated that as well.
It takes one ........
Quoting doorman79:


And that shows what man can do!



But Shen,

It was all thanks to the Gringo!
An Aggie came up with the plan, though!
Good evening, I wrote my first article for the Ft Worth Weather Examiner today.

It has been asubmitted for approval, which is done on the first article & it takes 3 days.

For those who would like to check out my blog, I posted the article there Link
Quoting JupiterFL:


I'm pretty sure that most people on this forum would agree that Chavez is a lunatic. On the other hand, the original poster might be designated that as well.

Chavez is certainly unorthodox!!
But a Lunatic? I dont think so.

He perfectly understands the role he is playing in South American and Global politics right now. Unless one has an understanding of Venezuelan culture and the relationships that Venezuela has with other countries (Columbia is a good example) in the region (and the importance placed on keeping the US in a state of anxiety, by your competitors), you cant claim that he is crazy.

These are interesting times....

p.s., I am no supporter of his, but when you study the thing, and live next door, bits fall into place.
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
It takes one ........


Because they are different? Maybe they think the same of us. Its a big world, we will never all think alike!
Quoting doorman79:


And that shows what man can do!



But Shen,

It was all thanks to the Gringo!
That was what was so cool. It was the whole world pitching in. Some of the heavy equip came from China to mention one place "we" like to denigrate.
Quoting pottery:

Chavez is certainly unorthodox!!
But a Lunatic? I dont think so.

He perfectly understands the role he is playing in South American and Global politics right now. Unless one has an understanding of Venezuelan culture and the relationships that Venezuela has with other countries (Columbia is a good example) in the region (and the importance placed on keeping the US in a state of anxiety, by your competitors), you cant claim that he is crazy.

These are interesting times....

p.s., I am no supporter of his, but when you study the thing, and live next door, bits fall into place.


He is aware of the old adage about the squeaky wheel, and the advantages of pulling the tigers tail.
Quoting atmoaggie:
An Aggie came up with the plan, though!


You live just around the corner from the town of husser, atmo. I can tell you stories that you could or couldn't believe about what happened there years ago!
Anyway.
See you all in the a.m., sometime.
Stay safe all.
Quoting pottery:

Chavez is certainly unorthodox!!
But a Lunatic? I dont think so.

He perfectly understands the role he is playing in South American and Global politics right now. Unless one has an understanding of Venezuelan culture and the relationships that Venezuela has with other countries (Columbia is a good example) in the region (and the importance placed on keeping the US in a state of anxiety, by your competitors), you cant claim that he is crazy.

These are interesting times....

p.s., I am no supporter of his, but when you study the thing, and live next door, bits fall into place.

Hah pottery, you're a wise man, China is ok, but Cuba is a no no, catch my drift, what a world? Chavez a lunatic, no way, personally I don't care for the man, but he sure knows how to play the game, some are so .......
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
It takes one ........
Man you want an argument bad! Got to be a site that caters to that. Anybody got the lock on Trolls.com. Got to be some money to be made.
Quoting pottery:
Anyway.
See you all in the a.m., sometime.
Stay safe all.


Peace!
Megi has intensified some more. Now a category 2 typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale with 1-minute maximum sustained winds near 90kts (105mph).

1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 14.0N 137.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, AIRCRAFT, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 137.1E



Quoting Orcasystems:


He is aware of the old adage about the squeaky wheel, and the advantages of pulling the tigers tail.
He better also be aware of what happened to Noriega. I'd oil the wheel if I were him.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


That is now how it went down, when he said he was leaving, people ASKED for his new information; so he gave it to them

Every person that is on his site from here, ASKED for the site and his other information.


Right. Truth is, the bashers and trolls drove him to do something that got him banned. Pretty sad.
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
He better also be ware of what happened to Noriega. I'd oil the wheel if I were him.


We can't oil our own wheels, much less the worlds!
Quoting aprinz1979:
just drop it. A fruit cake is someone that when threatened dials 911 and his problems are solved. When you learn how to survive in the streets and learn how to defend yourself and stay alive then you can call someone a fruit cake. Until then, keep your mouth shut or else keep your phone by you so you can call 911 and they can save you. Or just do what you do, sit behind a PC in the safety of your home and insult people in a forum.


This... This is just hilarious. Especially the bolded part. What do you do for an encore?
Quoting doorman79:


You live just around the corner from the town of husser, atmo. I can tell you stories that you could or couldn't believe about what happened there years ago!
Just looked it up. Been in LA between BR and Slidell for a total of about 25 years but had never heard of it. but there it is on the map, right in the middle.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Just looked it up. Been in LA between BR and Slidell for a total of about 25 years but had never heard of it. but there it is on the map, right in the middle.


Its just a short trip from you! It's by Unidess (Global Wildlife)
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
He better also be aware of what happened to Noriega. I'd oil the wheel if I were him.


Or??
Quoting doorman79:


Its just a short trip from you! It's by Unidess (Global Wildlife)
Back in an hour...(Isn't that short a trip)
Quoting atmoaggie:
Back in an hour...(Isn't that short a trip)


No way its an hour from you!
Quoting doorman79:


No way its an hour from you!
Round trip to Global Wildlife surely is.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Or??
Or he will get a one way chopper ride just like Noriega got.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Round trip to Global Wildlife surely is.


Round trip lol!
Quoting stormpetrol:

Hah pottery, you're a wise man, China is ok, but Cuba is a no no, catch my drift, what a world? Chavez a lunatic, no way, personally I don't care for the man, but he sure knows how to play the game, some are so .......

Cuba is a No No, because of an Economic blokade to that island for more than 50 years... If that wasn't the case, It would be a Yes Yes... Maybe the strongest democracy in the Caribbean....Political and Economic mistakes my friend... Remember that guy went to DC to meet with JFK....
I am currently unable to access the Cuban radar, does anybody have the site URL for the academic who has radar images saved for landfalling storms? I think it may have been at a Colorado university.

TIA
paula go bye,bye....i doubt even a td still,so much for levi's theory that it wouldnt just dissapate,cause in 12hrs it will be!!!...just sayn....
They are all lunatics if you ask me. Sneaky smart, yes, but still lunatics.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Round trip to Global Wildlife surely is.


Global Wildlife sits where the old town of unidess sits. The old concrete blocks and slabs in the middle of it was the middle of the old town.
Main post in Yahoo
10 Signs by Gus Lubin in Recession, Emerging Markets

Provided by the Business Insider:

If you want this info..... look in Yahoo....
Quoting JupiterFL:
They are all lunatics if you ask me. Sneaky smart, yes, but still lunatics.


My ? to you is, What makes you think that "you aren't a lunny to them"? It's a big world!
Quoting doorman79:


My ? to you is, What makes you think that "you aren't a lunny to them"? It's a big world!


I hope that I am crazy to them. Otherwise something is wrong with me.
375. sunlinepr 2:40 AM GMT on October 15, 2010

Please stop confusing people on here with facts and figures.... some do not respond well to reality :)

You to may end up with a one way chopper trip :)
99L= Dream is still alive!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting JupiterFL:


I hope that I am crazy to them. Otherwise something is wrong with me.


Thats an oxymoron. The idea that the world has to be like us or serve us is going to be our demise! Look around, its already begun!
u see the low on the radar..
Oops! - stepped in for a moment to check thoughts about the future of "Richard" now that Paula and her rains are abating here.

Steppin' back out - fight nice. eve
They are'nt my facts and figures, they are from one of the main economic and influential companies in the web.... Anyhow thanks, It's gone
Quoting Orcasystems:
375. sunlinepr 2:40 AM GMT on October 15, 2010

Please stop confusing people on here with facts and figures.... some do not respond well to reality :)

You to may end up with a one way chopper trip :)
Quoting JupiterFL:
They are all lunatics if you ask me. Sneaky smart, yes, but still lunatics.
I have yet to see the Southern Cross but I understand the world looks different from that latitude.
levi has done 100% w/the track however,alot better than my guess...
"When ya see the Southern Cross for the first time...ya understand that's why you came this way..."
388. xcool
buzzz
Quoting presslord:
"When ya see the Southern cross for the first time...ya understand why you came this way..."
Hey presss. Yep that was what was running thu my mind.
Quoting presslord:
"When ya see the Southern Cross for the first time...ya understand that's why you came this way..."


The Cross road has taken a many of man!
391. JLPR2
Holding on but loosing steam steadily.



Also this one is looking happy.
Press,

Like the avatar! I remember watching the marx bros as a child! I liked Harpo!
Quoting presslord:
"When ya see the Southern Cross for the first time...ya understand that's why you came this way..."

How's the boat?
Link

Harpo!!!
From the discussion:

PAULA IS MOVING EASTWARD OR 085/12. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS TO DECOUPLE. THE
RESULTANT SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL REMNANT CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
BE FORCED SOUTHWARD BY A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT IS
CURRENTLY BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...FLORIDA... AND THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
Nor' Easter "N"

AOI "A"

Paula "P"
What would this be, with Sept. conditions??
Did anyone post that the Richard wannabee is at 10%.
Shen...under utilized lately I'm sad to report
Quoting doorman79:
Link

Harpo!!!

Arthur Adolph "Harpo" Marx played the harp in most of his films.

Man.... more facts..
good night everyone!
big storm.
401. presslord 11:15 PM EDT on October 14, 2010
I know you've been busy doing good but "all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy."
Quoting gordydunnot:
Did anyone post that the Richard wannabee is at 10%.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
401. presslord 11:15 PM EDT on October 14, 2010
I know you've been busy doing good but "all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy."


His hobby may be with the boat, but his heart is with the people1 Trust he is not bored lol!
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
I am currently unable to access the Cuban radar, does anybody have the site URL for the academic who has radar images saved for landfalling storms? I think it may have been at a Colorado university.

TIA


HERES YOUR LINK http://www.spacecoastweather.org/wx13.html
Quoting Neapolitan:
Yes, I realize the CV season is, climatologically-speaking, over. But a couple of things:

1) There have been CV-type storms into the end of October in the past;
2) Any storm that comes off of Africa is not necessarily a CV-type storm (for instance, several of 2005's post-September storms began in the central/east Atlantic);
3) Waters in the east and central Atlantic are still very warm (in fact, October is generally when these waters reach peak temperature);

In this image, there's a very healthy system moving off of Africa. The swirl in the lower left has been declared a pouch (PGI57L), so at least a few people are watching it...

NOTE: I am not saying this will develop into a named storm, nor am I saying that if it does, it'll cross the entire Atlantic and do damage anywhere. I'm merely pointing out what, IMO, could be an AOI in a day or two. That's all...

Click for large loop:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image


There was a cloud over my backyard. I'm just saying, keep an eye out. Next year that cloud could become a pouch and eventually a AOI and eventually an invest and eventually get numbered and then named and then rapidly intensify. Just saying...IMO
Paula, pfft:

AOI/xx/xx
mark
AOI/xx/xx
mark
12.55n/80.88w
TropicalStormPaula reentered the Atlantic at SantaMarta,Cuba shortly after passing through Matanzas

TS.Paula's heading had turned eastward to (10.3degrees north of) dueEast
from its previous heading of (7.2degrees east of) EastNorthEast
TS.Paula's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions had decreased to ~13mph(~20.9km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~17.7mph(~28.4km/h)
Category1
14Oct 03amGMT - - 21.9n85.4w - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv.#11
14Oct 06amGMT - - 22.2n85.2w - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv..#11A
14Oct 09amGMT - - 22.3n84.9w - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 999mb -- NHC.Adv.#12
14Oct 12pmGMT - - 22.7n84.5w - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 999mb -- NHC.Adv.#12A
TropicalStorm
14Oct 03pmGMT - - 22.8n84.1w - - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - - 1000mb -- NHC.Adv.#13
14Oct 06pmGMT - - 22.8n83.5w - - 65mph(~104.6km/h) - - 1002mb -- NHC.Adv.#13A
14Oct 09pmGMT - - 22.8n82.8w - - 60mph(~96.6km/h) - - - 1002mb -- NHC.Adv.#14
15Oct 12amGMT - - 23.0n82.0w - - 55mph(~88.5km/h) - - - 1002mb -- NHC.Adv.#14A
15Oct 03amGMT - - 23.1n81.4w - - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - - - 1002mb -- NHC.Adv.#15

Copy &paste 21.9n85.4w, 22.2n85.2w, 22.3n84.9w, 22.7n84.5w, 22.8n84.1w-22.8n83.5w, 22.8n83.5w-22.8n82.8w, 22.8n82.8w-23.0n82.0w, 23.0n82.0w-23.1n81.4w, cun, mia, nbw, 23.1n81.4w-23.67n77.72w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~17hours from now to the southern tip of AndrosIsland,Bahamas
near MarsBaySettlement

^ The easternmost line-segment is the straightline projection.


1. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE AFTERWARDS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES LITTLE.
Quoting aspectre:
TropicalStormPaula reentered the Atlantic at SantaMarta,Cuba shortly after passing through Matanzas

TS.Paula's heading had turned eastward to (10.3degrees north of) dueEast
from its previous heading of (7.2degrees east of) EastNorthEast
TS.Paula's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions had decreased to ~13mph(~20.9km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~17.7mph(~28.4km/h)
Category1
14Oct 03amGMT - - 21.9n85.4w - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv.#11
14Oct 06amGMT - - 22.2n85.2w - - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - - - 993mb -- NHC.Adv..#11A
14Oct 09amGMT - - 22.3n84.9w - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 999mb -- NHC.Adv.#12
14Oct 12pmGMT - - 22.7n84.5w - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 999mb -- NHC.Adv.#12A
TropicalStorm
14Oct 03pmGMT - - 22.8n84.1w - - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - - 1000mb -- NHC.Adv.#13
14Oct 06pmGMT - - 22.8n83.5w - - 65mph(~104.6km/h) - - 1002mb -- NHC.Adv.#13A
14Oct 09pmGMT - - 22.8n82.8w - - 60mph(~96.6km/h) - - - 1002mb -- NHC.Adv.#14
15Oct 12amGMT - - 23.0n82.0w - - 55mph(~88.5km/h) - - - 1002mb -- NHC.Adv.#14A
15Oct 03amGMT - - 23.1n81.4w - - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - - - 1002mb -- NHC.Adv.#15

Copy &paste 21.9n85.4w, 22.2n85.2w, 22.3n84.9w, 22.7n84.5w, 22.8n84.1w-22.8n83.5w, 22.8n83.5w-22.8n82.8w, 22.8n82.8w-23.0n82.0w, 23.0n82.0w-23.1n81.4w, cun, mia, nbw, 23.1n81.4w-23.67n77.72w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~17hours from now to the southern tip of AndrosIsland,Bahamas
near MarsBaySettlement

^ The easternmost line-segment is the straightline projection.

Quoting Bordonaro:



Looks like no trip back into the Caribbean any time soon. Tiny storm would explain the lack of agreement in the models. Also seems when that happens the NHC is a little tongue tied.
.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
DEPRESSION BOB03-2010
5:30 AM IST October 15 2010
==================================

SUBJECT: Depression over west central, adjoining northwest & east central Bay of Bengal.

At 0:00 AM UTC, Depression BOB03-2010 over west central, adjoining northwest & east central Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards and lays centered near 18.5N 87.5E, or about 450 kms east-northeast of Visakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh), 300 kms east-southeast of Gopalpur (Orissa) and 350 kms south of Digha (West Bengal).

The current environmental conditions and numerical weather prediction models suggest that the system would intensify further into a deep depression and move northwestward and cross Orissa coast between Gopalpur and Paradip by Friday evening/night.
That wave exiting Africa seems to have some spin associated with it, as well as a few other locations in the Atlantic. In my opinion the "end" of the season in terms of months/dates should not be based strictly on previous observations. Obviously a lot of heat has been building up in the oceans over the past 50 or so years; this in return should shift the maximum temperature gradient forwards in time (the season should end later). Unless some other effect offsets the temperature increases, I would expect more "late" season hurricanes in the future.
Seems like we have an African problem...
Looks like dewpoints will bottom out into the 30's by tomorrow afternoon here.
Upper level winds will be farther N next week than it has been in the GOM. This means if Richard developes, it would put Fl. more at risk.
Quoting scott39:
Upper level winds will be farther N next week than it has been in the GOM. This means if Richard developes, it would put Fl. more at risk.


Correct.
I hope the GFS and Nogaps are wrong about that monster they are showing in the future!
Take a look at WU GFS model Next week.... crossing Cuba, east of FL
Link
Preparing for nor'easter

434. JLPR2
Yeah...
This one isn't getting any love, maybe it's because it is only developed by the CMC?

It's looking nicer now:


well I'm off to bed, night all!
Quoting KoritheMan:


Correct.


Good Morning Kori!!

What part of Florida you got in mind??
. . . want to become Richard will not develop - too much interaction with land and very little or no spin . . . " Anyway, this is the hat that I got on today . . hey, what can I say ? I'm a Gaga . . . "
Quoting Orcasystems:


<3 xkcd :)
GN
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
TYPHOON MEGI (T1013)
15:00 PM JST October 15 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea East of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Megi (970 hPa) located at 14.9N 136.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 8 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.4N 132.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
48 HRS: 18.5N 128.0E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 18.6N 123.9E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Strong Typhoon)
Quoting traumaboyy:


Good Morning Kori!!

What part of Florida you got in mind??


Morning!

Right now, it's too early to detail the specifics for pre-Richard, but south Florida is the most likely target for now. Central Florida is also possible, though less likely.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Morning!

Right now, it's too early to detail the specifics for pre-Richard, but south Florida is the most likely target for now. Central Florida is also possible, though less likely.


Thanks!!
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #10
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB03-2010
8:30 AM IST October 15 2010
===================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, The depression over west central and adjoining northwest & east central Bay of Bengal moved northwestward and intensified into a deep depression. Deep Depression BOB03-2010 lays centered over northwest Bay of Bengal near 19.0N 87.0E, or about 220 kms east southeast of Gopalpur, 150 kms southeast of Puri, and 300 kms south southwest of Digha.

The current environmental conditions and numerical weather prediction models suggest that the system would move northwestward and cross Orissa coast between Gopalpur and Paradip near Puri between 1200 PM UTC and 1800 PM UTC

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with a central pressure of 996 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough around the system's center. Puri reported northerly 20 knots surface wind with MSLP of 998.1 hPa and Gopalpur reported north northwesterly 15 knots with MSLP of 997.5 hPa.

Satellite imagery indicates increasing in deep convection and further organization. The Dvorak intensity is T2.0. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal to the north of 15.0N and west of 87.5E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -80C.

Low to moderate vertical wind shear of horizontal wind prevails over the region. There is negative 24 hour tendency of vertical wind shear to the northwest of the system. The system lies to the south of upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 22.0N
443. IKE
...PAULA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA...
5:00 AM EDT Fri Oct 15
Location: 23.1N 80.2W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: E at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb

444. IKE
Shields up...46 days left...and it's officially over...

Good morning, if anyone is around??
446. IKE




The Big Blob in the SW Caribbean everyone was showing last night is gone for the moment. Looks like it is being pulled into the tail of the troff. Maybe thats where Richard will come from?
Post 423 WOW LOL I should not see such things before coffee
449. IKE
Latest GFS is showing a western Caribbean system that takes a track similar to the November climatology tracks of systems from the NHC...too much wind shear(200-500 mb's), for anything to survive in the GOM....

2011 is coming up soon not too late to move inland
451. IKE
Dry as a bone.....


Crestview, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 1 hr 0 min 12 sec ago
Clear
41 °F

Clear
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 38 °F
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 30.08 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: 6.20 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 210 ft
Quoting IKE:
Latest GFS is showing a western Caribbean system that takes a track similar to the November climatology tracks of systems from the NHC...too much wind shear(200-500 mb's), for anything to survive in the GOM....




??????? I don't think s. Maybe you should drink some more coffee and look again. U might have a shield but south Florida looks to be in the crosshair with little shear forecasted in its path
Good Morning Ike, I knew it was cold in Crestview this morning. The Old dog refused her 4AM walk again.
454. IKE
Quoting PakaSurvivor:
Good Morning Ike, I knew it was cold in Crestview this morning. The Old dog refused her 4AM walk again.


I've got 49.3 outside.
Quoting IKE:


I've got 49.3 outside.


Spent Friday through Tuesday in Tampa visiting my son. I'm thinking I may need to go back down there. :)
457. IKE
Quoting PakaSurvivor:


Spent Friday through Tuesday in Tampa visiting my son. I'm thinking I may need to go back down there. :)


Chamber of Commerce weather for the next week....



Today: Sunny, with a high near 81. North wind between 5 and 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 46. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 81. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph.

Saturday Night: Clear, with a low around 44. Calm wind.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 83. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 44. Calm wind.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 84. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 50. Calm wind.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 81. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 53.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 82.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 52.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 80.
Quoting Orcasystems:
A lot were wrong with Paula...
Good Morning...
460. IKE
Speaking of Paula, the airport in Miami had .08 inches of rain Wednesday and Thursday from her. Naples had a trace each day.

Key West airport has had 1.51 since Wednesday.
461. IKE
10%-er done bit the dust...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAULA LOCATED ON THE NORTH COAST OF CENTRAL
CUBA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



Quoting IKE:
Shields up...46 days left...and it's officially over...


Especially with all the shear in the 200-500mb layer like you mentioned. Nothing can withstand that.
464. IKE
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Especially with all the shear in the 200-500mb layer like you mentioned. Nothing can withstand that.


Maybe next year.......
It's absolutely raining buckets here on Harbour Island...
i can't even watch "The Bold & The Beautiful" on the TWC as we've lost signal...
Paula under absoprtion
JB this morn.
Side note from me.
Hey Nea! One of your most consistant critizisms of JB is that he doesn't admit his mistakes. That's not remotely true. Read on.



FRIDAY 12:15 AM
WILL BOSTON GET STRONGER WINDS THAN HAVANA?

HAVANA did have gusts to 55 mph as Paula went by south of the city. It is over land moving slightly south of east, but I am surprised that it is not turning more southeast. The center is staying together enough so the deep layer flow is pulling it out enough so it may get back over the water on the northeast coast of Cuba and stall. Clearly the hurricane center has had a better end game idea with this than I. I will admit that though.

But the rapidly deepening storm off New Jersey will have pressures lowere than the lowest pressure that Paula ever got too, and this is going to lash the coast with howling winds. Boston could get gust over 55 both from the northeast, then the northwest with this

I trust everyone is seeing how the model is picking up on what should be Richard for next week.

ciao for now ****
Hard to believe that even with all the cool air from two weeks ago blowing over it, the majority of the GOM is still warm enough for tropical activity, but the data don't lie. The image below shows that water temps capable of generating and sustaining TCs still cover nearly the entire Gulf; the only exceptions are a thin strip right at the northern extreme, and some places in Florida Bay where the heavy rains from Nicole forced some cooling. Pretty much everything green, greenish yellow, yellow, orange, and red is TC-ready. (Of course, there's more that goes into TC formation than just ample warm water; atmospheric conditions above that water have to be right. But so long as the heat's still there, so are the chances):

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image


Things are even warmer, of course, in the Caribbean and Atlantic portion of the MDR, which is normal and expected. I foresee yet another 3-5 TCs for the year. While it's unlikely (though not impossible) that any one of those could sneak through to the northern GOM, pretty much every other part of the MDR is still open for business. Lots of watching to be done these next seven weeks (and possibly beyond).
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
JB this morn.
Side note from me.
Hey Nea! One of your most consistant critizisms of JB is that he doesn't admit his mistakes. That's not remotely true. Read on.

FRIDAY 12:15 AM
Clearly the hurricane center has had a better end game idea with this than I. I will admit that though.

I trust everyone is seeing how the model is picking up on what should be Richard for next week.

ciao for now ****


I'm speechless! I'll have to mark that one down in my JB calendar. ;-)
Quoting Neapolitan:


I'm speechless! I'll have to mark that one down in my JB calendar. ;-)




I'll keep pointing em out for you.
Also if you had been reading his post recently,(Like u say u do) he has said several times that he blew his landfall forecast for the US this year.
472. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




I'll keep pointing em out for you.
Also if you had been reading his post recently,(Like u say u do) he has said several times that he blew his landfall forecast for the US this year.


I wouldn't attempt to forecast tracks of systems for a season.

Nearly impossible to forecast. I'm convinced.
Quoting IKE:


I wouldn't attempt to forecast tracks of systems for a season.

Nearly impossible to forecast. I'm convinced.
I'll agree with you on that one, Ike. Historically-speaking, one-third of Atlantic TCs hit the US mainland, and I'll never say any more than that; anyone who knows anything about statistics recognizes that a year with ten landfalling storms doesn't guarantee a single one for the following year--and vice versa.
Quoting IKE:


I wouldn't attempt to forecast tracks of systems for a season.

Nearly impossible to forecast. I'm convinced.


I agree with you but the problem we deal with is statistics. If the experts are forecasting a certain number of storms then pure history would say that X number of storms would make a U.S. landfall. I guess this is how we get averages. Some years have a high number of landfalls balanced by a year like this year in which there were minimal U.S. landfalls.
I would watch for a possible hurricane to enter the SE Gulf at the end of the month. Both Euro and GFS ensembles are showing this potential from the 0Z runs. See alot of comments saying the gulf is closed well I would proceed with caution with those comments because the pattern is looking very stormy for the SE US as this ULL kicks out of the SW US next week. This ULL will set up a tropical connection from the Caribbean and this connection could spin up not only Richard but another system going into November.

http://www.dejongonline.com/weather/weathermodel.htm
Obviously, some of you people aren't listening (IKE). Its already been pointed out by many that the Upper Level Winds will be changing early next week, and that winds in the GOMEX will not be screaming anymore. This leaves especially Southern Florida vulnerable to tropical system landfalls.

And just our luck (Sarcasm), there is a good chance we will see Richard develop in the Caribbean next week.
478. IKE
NEW BLOG!
479. Jax82
NEW BLOG
Quoting IKE:


I wouldn't attempt to forecast tracks of systems for a season.

Nearly impossible to forecast. I'm convinced.

I agree. But I wouldn't put it past Bastardi. "The greater the risk, the greater the glory". This guy makes predictions that NHC & other experts won't even touch just so when he does actually get a track correct, he'll be regarded as impeccable.
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Yes it is a 3rd world city, not country. Luckily for me, I live in Metairie, which has not yet become 3rd world.


Are you kidding? Hate the idea of living in Metairie, lived there as a kid. Heck, Baton Rouge is a third world country now...