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Paul threatens Mexico; World Series weather in Detroit

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:50 PM GMT on October 22, 2006

In the Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical development over the next six days. In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Paul is forecast to pass very close to Baja as a tropical storm on Tuesday and then strike the coast of mainland Mexico. Paul is under only about 10 knots of shear this morning, and his satellite appearance has shown as a modest improvement since last night. The shear is expected to remain below 20 knots through Monday, which may give Paul enough time to strengthen to a Category 1 hurricane. Shear is expected to increase on Monday, significantly weakening Paul before he makes landfall in Mexico. The GFDL model is still predicting that Paul will become a major hurricane, but the rest of the models do not agree with this. The other models' forecast of a weakening Tropical Storm Paul at landfall in Mexico Tuesday seem more reasonable, given the 20+ knots of shear expected to impact the storm beginning Monday.

A QuikSCAT pass from 9:22am EDT today showed Paul's top winds at about 50 mph. It is interesting to compare this image (the standard 25 km resolution product) with the high resolution 12.5 km QuikSCAT image of the same region. The high-resolution product suffers from more ambiguity about which direction the winds are blowing, and sometimes the algorithm to detect which direction the winds are blowing gets it wrong. The winds on the south side of Paul in the high-resolution 12.5 km QuikSCAT are exactly the opposite of what they should be.

World Series forecast
It looks like some nasty weather for the Tigers and Cardinals tonight, with a game-time temperature of 40 degrees, occasional rain showers, and 15-20 mph winds. The wind should be from the west-northwest, from home plate towards left field (take a look at the orientation of Comerica Park with respect to the wind). This will favor the home-run hitting possibilities for right-handed sluggers like Albert Pujols and Magglio Ordonez. Snow may mix in with the rain late in the game. I doubt the rain showers will be heavy enough to force a rain delay.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

hey dr m what about the wave out there by 46W and how come you did not say any thing about it i was hoping you would?


In the Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss

i would take that back

there is one wave out b 46W that ould be come are next 93L and are dr m did not say any thing about it he sould say a little some in about the wave out by 46W
i agree taz
Thanks Dr. M. Interesting that the GFDL is the outlier this time.
1990 we talking about the wave that could threaten me
who is code1
Looking at 1900s SST map, it looks like Xavier will be moving over cooler waters by the end of the forecast period. It's supposed to strengthen to hurricane force before then, I think, but hopefully will not be a long-lived one . . .

I was just thinking this morning how people earlier this year and last year would attempt to run anybody who posted about EPac and other world cyclones off the board. Pretty ironic when u consider that so much of the "action" this year has been in the EPac.

One of the things I really like about Wunderground is that we can see information on tropical systems worldwide. Sorta keeps things in perspective.

BTW, I'd posted this on yesterday's blog; between the time I started typing and posted, Dr. M updated . . . LOL
That last map I posted was an anomily map. This is the actual SST map.
It looks like the Red sea is warm enough to support Tropical Cyclone development!

; )
Taz, this is the 8 a.m. NHC remark on the wave. It doesn't appear to be a threat to anything and that is probably why it wasn't mentioned.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W S OF 24N MOVING W
NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE HAS DEVELOPED A CLASSIC INVERTED V
SIGNATURE. THE WEAK SFC LOW PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED ALONG THIS WAVE
HAS BEEN DROPPED DUE TO THE LACK OF A CLOSED CIRCULATION BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGES AND QUIKSCAT DATA. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS
MINIMAL AND MAINLY EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ EXCEPT FOR A PATCH OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 42W-44W.
GLOBAL MODELS...THAT HAVE THIS FEATURE INITIALIZED...CONTINUE TO
TRACK IT WNW AS AN OPEN WAVE.
it is going to be a threat to me
moving wnw is even worse
1990 the red sea is where xavier is
Doesn't look too well developed at the moment.
i just hope it does not get stronger
1990 the weather now is fine
No, the Red sea is by the Arabian Pennensula. It is warm enough for TC development, but it is basically in the middle of a desert.
the nhc dropped the sfc low
ryang, it has very little moisture or wind. There is a tropical wave that comes across you about every week to 10 days for about 5 months each year. You may get some rain and minor wind gusts and that is normal. I don't consider that to be a threat.
everyone here come to my blog
but taz said it could develop.Taz is a meterologist
Made first page. So hows it going gang?
Even warmer than the Red Sea is the Persian Gulf (or it was a month ago) - it reached almost 100 degrees earlier this year!
LOL, Taz is new to the blog this year. He doesn't have a degree in anything and hasn't taken any met courses that I am aware of. He is learning, but he sometimes jumps to incorrect conclusions.
That's like a hot tub!
Im awake and sipping my tea..Enjoying..G morning
Taz is not new; he has been here since last year (he was using the handle 8888888889gg back then). In fact, he was already here for about half a year when I came on in February.
..more misinformation..LOL
I figure, since the Saints have Bye weekend..I could hang out and watch the Posts go by...Unless we have an Invest..but nope..nothing..Great news.
I like that one cyclonebuster!
Gotta go now!
Cup a tea. Excellent idea Pat.
ryang..theres an interesting post on yer 26 past the hour mark on your Blog that looks xactly like the 22 past the hour post Here?..interesting..LOL!
Drank coffee for 39 years then swithed to tea..much less harsh on my system
patrap what do you mean
i see now patrap.Thats from goofoff
Twinings English Breakfast coming up.
Exactly....correct.
By the way, Taz (under his first of many IDs) was correct when he said that Wilma ("the W storm") would become a Category 5. Link
As a reminder of the frantic past two months I shall post this:

OMG! That wave is looking good! It'll be the next major! Its Joyce!! CAT 5!! People get ready, especially the Caribbean!! ITS GOING TO BE THE NEXT WILMA!!

/joke mode over

That wave ain't going anywhere =P. It'll soon die, just wait and see.
..Good..now I have someones attention..NOTE: My mailbox is not an OP-ED section for dissenters of the Katrina disaster..I would urge some who think it is, to reconsider that approach.I can be a lil sensitive to poltical rethoric...but am always free to debate it...But not at 9 in da morning on a Sunday..Thanks.
Heres something to please the Crowd..Link
Patrap, Tea's ready. Was leaning toward B-mary but went with Twinings. Your first save of the day!
Thanks ..enjoy!
First day with IE 7 trying to get used to new layout. Anybody have feedback?
For those Who still believe it was all looting,Politics ..and all that other suff..During & After KAtrina...I have THE video, many wouldnt dare view.But we did..every day.Its a collection of the ..the ones who didnt make..Found & photoed where we found them..The video was mad e by a Friend photographer..along with Her AP photos collected after the Worst was done weeks later..Its powerful..Haunting ..and the way it was. I will post it on my Blog...in 3 minutes..Then I will remove it..by 15 past the Hour....This is NOT for the faint-hearted..but..I feel a lessson can be learned by many.Who always fall back on the OTHER stories ..of that awful Event.
I have not used a version of IE since IE 5.0 on Windows 98. I have IE 7 but have not even opended it. I only use it to get windows updates. I have Opera web browser.

I use to use Firefox back in the day but it had to many memory leaks. I remember that thing would spike my CPU useage so much.
Current Xavier track. This is near Solomons/Vanuatu area, right? I need to get my atlas out. . . .

Xavier track:

That was an interesting clip on the HH, Patrap. I think I recall seeing some newsclip (on TWC?) the week after Katrina talking about how HH worry about family members when a hurricane is approaching the Gulf Coast. I suppose this is true to a certain extent of all personnel involved in providing assistance to the general public during hurricanes.
While I do not wish anyone south of the equator any bad weather, I will admit I much prefer watching storms that rotate clockwise rather than the ones that are counter clockwise.
Let's try this again . . .

Current Xavier track. This is near Solomons/Vanuatu area, right?

Thats very true..I know 2 Crewmembers from Keesler..who were Flying the storm as It came in..But their FAmilies were out of Harms way.
Goofoff .your mail is terminated to my box..Please dont send me anymore..Thanks..
Well, that was interesting. Must have forgot to change a measurement . . .

Seems I do remember a bit of my world geo. The Solomon Islands are the group to the NW of Xavier's path, while Vanuatu is the group to the SW.
Thanks Dr. Masters. Very interesting side note re. the QuikSCAT.
Patrap, you had my home email, but if you prefer to request it on the blog, that is fine. I will be happy to comply.
Patrap, Missed link to your video, was watching replay of CNN coverage of Katrina. Have you posted it before?
Here is the Indian Ocean invest:



I thought at first it was a Southern Hemisphere event, but this is actually south of the Arabian Peninsula. I can't remember hearing of any actual tropical cyclones making it to land in that area since the turn of the century . . .
ummm....the wave near 46W is WAY to far east for development, look closer to home!!
Yes I posted it once Before.
Could Xavier be another Monica SST seem to be
warm enough at that area too sopport a CAT 3
The original forecast was for a Cat 3, although now they forecast a Cat 2. One problem though is that SSTs drop off rapidly to the south and you need very hot water to support a storm like Monica (say, around 30*C/86*F or more).

SST map:


Definately warm to the northeast, but it cools down in its path; the water around Australia has not even reached 26*C yet.
Well Vince became a hurricane in cooler waters which dosent make any sence
Patrap, I saw it then some months ago. Truly ugly.
Mayby because Vince was so small, not as much heat energy was required?
Yeah, and Gordon actually became a Cat 2 over water cooler than 26*C; this map explains why this can happen (notice the 26.5*C line and then notice the maximum potential intensity outside the line):



It is not really so unusual; Vince's location is mainly what was so unusual, not its formation over cool water.

Is Paul developing an eye?
In fact, I remember that Gordon was violating the MPI map, which said that it should have been a tropical storm at the most when it was a Cat 2. This explains all:
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 PM AST TUE SEP 19 2006

...TENACIOUS GORDON REFUSES TO WEAKEN...EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AZORES TONIGHT...

HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 19 2006
...
GORDON'S FAST FORWARD SPEED IS MINIMIZING ANY ADVERSE EFFECTS
FROM THE 40-50 KT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ENCROACHING ON THE CYCLONE FROM
THE WEST...SO THE ONLY FACTORS INHIBITING INTENSIFICATION WOULD BE
COOLER SSTS OF 22C-23C AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
FROM THE WEST.
...

Note that the time of the discussion was 12 hours previous to the advisory.
Major convection flare on W end of Puerto Rico. No patience with posting link. Look for yourself.
Major convection flare on W end of Puerto Rico.

I would say... afternoon thunderstorms due to land heating.
NHC says thunderstorms too and not much else. Something to watch anyway. Slow day.
Jacksonville, FL has hit 91 so far today, and that makes it the latest 90 degree reading ever. The previous record for the latest 90 degree day was October 19, 1980.
Paul is now developing an eye...

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=17&lon=-109&info=vis&qua lity=50&width=1000&zoom=1

Perhaps indeed we'll have a strong cat 2 or 3 soon...
Amazing

Paul is just exploding right now... we have now a pin hole eye!!!
Copy and paste.. the link work w/ the "1" at the end...
Xavier is also on the NRL site at 65 mph
Paul is at 60 mph; I think Xavier will beat
paul to hurricane satus
Officially (not JTWC), Xavier is already at 65 kts (10 minute mean; about 75 kts 1 minute mean) and 970 mb. Link
Notice the forecast:

48hrs valid at 241800 UTC near 12.5S 165.4E mov WSW 03kt with 100kt
close to centre.

100 kts (10 min) = 115 kts (Cat 4) 1 min.
It dosent say that on the WU map its a hurricane?
Looking good Today Paul!


Invest page...Link
WU uses the JTWC... unofficial... most likely due to convenience (just one place for information instead of the dozen or so official TCWC's around the world).
Ello mate!
Posted By: Wishcasterboy at 2:26 PM PDT on October 22, 2006.
Looking good Today Paul!


Like a cinammon roll!

Can't stay, good day to all.
Doing heavy research for that blog entry been I've puting off for a while. Man theres a lot of ground to cover!
lol
PLEASE GO AND STAY HERE!

I am gonna tell Dr. Masters to kick you off the site, like this!
Navy page has 3 invests in the SPac now . . .

Things sure have picked up there.
1997-1998 storms (there were 23 in the 2005-2006 season):
37P.BART
35S.NONAME
34S.NONAME
33S.NONAME
32P.ALAN
32S.GEMMA
31P.ZUMAN
30P.NATHAN
29P.YALI
28S.FIONA
27S.ELSIE
26S.DONALINE
25P.MAY
24P.NONAME
24S.NONAME
23S.BELTANE
22P.FRANK
22P.NONAME
22S.VICTOR
21S.NONAME
20S.ANACELLE
19P.ELLA
19P.WES
18P.VELI
17P.URSULA
16P.NONAME
15S.TIFFANY
14P.LES
14P.NONAME
14P.PETE
13P.OLINDA
13S.NONAME
12P.KATRINA
11P.DANI
11P.SUSAN
10P.RON
09P.CORA
09S.SELWYN
08P.NONAME
07P.PAM
06P.OSEA
06S.THELMA
05.NUTE
05S.BILLY
04.MARTIN
03S.ZELIA
02S.NONAME
01S.NONAME

El Nino... Yikes!
I was thinking earlier this seems a fairly early start to the season in the S Hemisphere . . .

The last season was pretty bad; Monica made landfall as a Category 5 in Australia (something which fortunately did not happen last year in the Atlantic) and it had the highest winds ever recorded in a tropical cyclone in the Southern Hemisphere. Also, Larry may have been a Category 5 at landfall as well, based on this info:
According to the preliminary data, the winds near Innisfail may have reached 290 km/h with gusts to 310-320 km/h.

Two landfalling Cat 5s in one season?! God forbid that ever happen in the Atlantic...
Evening All !
There is a big red blob heading my way off the coast of the DR....any comments?
thank you
Hmm very quiet here
OK Xavier HAS A CLEAR EYE!
Hey CybrTeddy.
hey
Did you like my Alien! LOL
No also I hated the fact you called me a Girl
You have picture of one on your blog saying "It's Me!!", whats with that?
About Category 5 landfalls... the last time that Puerto Rico was hit by a Cat 5 was in 1928 with San Felipe, also known as Lake Ockechobee hurricane. The wind was measured at 160mph and estimated in 200mph. That was 78 years ago. Maybe we are near another Category 5 landfall time...We need to be prepared.
I spy an eye in Paul.
As of always.
Oh ya look at Xavier tell me what u see
Its very hard to belive that Venus was at one point a water/land with life on it. The Green house effect (Globel Warming) Did this to Venus

I've said it once and I'll say it again, Mankind ant got nothing on this!


Listen wishcasterboy i did not approve
of that Alien Image you posted now
go to my Terraforming Blog and remove that PHOTO!
Can't you delete it yourself?
sure and also banning you from my blog
Ok Wishcasterboy
look at your blog I wish to talk to u there
LOL...
ROTFLMAO!

Please go to your own blog; why does it still have the title you put up when Margie banned you? Put up a blog on your tunnels, including explanations and links.
Evening all

I jsut looked at the 8:05 discussion and it refers to a low on the coast of Honduras near 15N 82W.

Makes no sense as 82W is E of the coast and out in the open Caribbean.

What gives ??

Link
kman,

Maybe its a large low?

Cat 1:

sorry, I had to take a call Baha

Maybe so, just seemed odd to me. In any event there is no convection associated with it so no threat for now
Buoys 42057 and 42058 do confirm a low in that area based on the wind direction at each location
well good night all
Nothing happening worth talking about
Cat 1 for Paul is confirmed now?
Likewise.
Tell me... 75kt = ? mph?
about 85 mph? google will do a conversion for u
85 mph is correct. This is also the intensity of Xavier when you convert 65 kts (10 minute sustaind winds) to 1 minute sustained winds.
75 kt = 86 mph

Here is a handy chart which u can save if u wish.
I was thinking that they both looked pretty good on satellite.

I also noted that persistent westward trend of Paul. Perhaps models were correct in disappating him; if he gets far enough west before making the turn, by the time he reaches land he may be just a swirl of clouds. . . .
FNMOC now have 70kt for Paul... Lol!
Good evening,

It seems that paul is under going rapid intensification and if the trend continues the GFDL solution may not be that far off after all.Folks in BAHA may have to prepare for a stronger system then originally thought as the future intensity of paul is very much unknown.The central pressure was 994 mbs in the 2 PM PDT Advisory and now it has dropped to now 979 mbs.In fact SSD dvorak confirms that paul is now a hurricane. Adrian
Hey adrian,

I see the intensification, but for how long?

I think the w-ward trend is giving Paul a window that wasn't anticipated, but also taking him that much further from Baha at the same time. SSTs and wind shear are not likely to be favorable later in the week.
Im in La Paz, Baja, awaitin' for another hit... on the path of this hurricane... I think the west movement will result in a more north hit... Not in Cabo, perhaps a few miles north.
Hey BahaHurican!For sure on the next advisory this will be hurricane paul.DSHP right now takes paul to 85kts.BAHA has had a very active season this year.
the eyewall now is totally closed... Indeed Paul is intensifing... but... Is still moving to the W-NW.
Please put the links for those prediction models...
DSHP calls now for 92kt in 24 hours
Here is the track animation from the MM5.



GFDL has paul at 105kts at landfall.
Posted By: hurricane23 at 7:12 PM PDT on October 22, 2006.
Here is the track animation from the MM5.


That's pretty unusual track. Do any other models see something similar?
Based on this information and awaiting for official information (because my system is looked btwen 7pm and 5am PST, I post a story on my newspaper (Im journalist) 15 minutes ago saying that Paul is now a Hurricane.

www.elsudcaliforniano.com.mx
You can see paul trying to clear out what maybe a very small eye.


The MM5 is on crack...


Click to enlarge
My blog is updated, anybody who wants to see it click on my name.
HURRICANE WATCH FOR BAHA!


TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 22 2006

...PAUL BECOMES A HURRICANE...THREATENS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD
TO AGUA BLANCA ON THE WEST COAST...AND TO LA PAZ ON THE EAST COAST.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO ALONG THE SEA OF CORTES ON MONDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.1 WEST OR ABOUT 460 MILES
...745 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 475 MILES
...765 KM...SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND THIS
SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...16.1 N...111.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
ITS OFICIAL:

800 PM PDT SUN OCT 22 2006

...PAUL BECOMES A HURRICANE...THREATENS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD
TO AGUA BLANCA ON THE WEST COAST...AND TO LA PAZ ON THE EAST COAST.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
OMG! IM UNDER HURRICANE WATCH! Jejeje!
FOLKS IN BAHA NEED TO BEGIN TO MAKE THERE PREPARATIONS AS PAUL SEEMS TO BE HEADED IN THERE GENERAL DIRECTION...


WTPZ42 KNHC 230227
TCDEP2
HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 22 2006

PAUL IS DEFINITELY ON A STRENGTHENING TREND AND IS NOW A HURRICANE.
AN EYE HAS FORMED ON BOTH VISIBLE AND IR IMAGES AND T-NUMBERS FROM
ALL AGENCIES HAVE INCREASED TO 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 75
KNOTS. PAUL IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW
SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SO SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THE INTENSITY SHOULD LEVEL OFF
FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING. HOWEVER...PAUL IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR OR
OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND REACH MAINLAND MEXICO AS A
HURRICANE.

PAUL HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS DRIFTING WESTWARD ABOUT 4 KNOTS OR LESS.
A SLOW TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS...AS THE HURRICANE MOVES WITHIN WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THEREAFTER...THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW AND
PAUL SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE OF FORWARD
SPEED. THE GDFL IS THE FASTEST MODEL AND BRINGS THE HURRICANE TO
NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND TO MAINLAND
MEXICO IN LESS THAN 48 HOURS. THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE IS A LITTLE BIT
SLOWER THAN THE GFDL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THE GFDL
AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE.
Tomorrow local civil defense will be activated in Souther Baja. Perhaps we will have hundreds evacuated for tuesday morning.
.01PXAVIER.80kts-963mb-
It's your TUNNEL!
Just kidding, It's actually a good theory.
Ha, It's Mike.
What's your name?
Your confused?
Your real name.
You have one right?
That's to Patrick's on this blog now. The other being Patrap.
Aren't there certain risks to your Tunnels theory?
GTGTB
Morning, all,

I see 23 was right about Paul when he said still a hurricane on landfall. This storm is taking an interesting path.
Here's the 2 am discussion:

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 230848
TCDEP2
HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
200 AM PDT MON OCT 23 2006

OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK NUMBERS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN T4.5 AND
T5.0...AND THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 85 KT. THE EYE
HAS BEEN FAIRLY WELL DEFINED IN INFRARED IMAGERY AND IS SURROUNDED
BY A NARROW RING OF -70C OR COLDER CLOUD TOPS. OUTFLOW IS STRONG
TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH...BUT LIMITED ZONALLY.

THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE UNUSUALLY PROBLEMATIC. PAUL
WILL VERY SOON BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
LOW SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND INDEED THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...285/4. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LOW
HEADED FOR PAUL...AND THESE COULD REACH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO. AS PAUL BEGINS TO RECURVE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE RIDING ALONG A VERY SHARP
GRADIENT OF VERTICAL SHEAR...AND IT IS ENTIRELY UNCLEAR HOW MUCH
EFFECT THIS SHEAR WILL HAVE ON THE STRUCTURE AND HENCE THE TRACK OF
PAUL. EVERY GLOBAL MODEL...THE GFS...UKMET...NOGAPS...ECMWF...AND
CANADIAN...SHEARS OFF THE TOP OF PAUL AND LEAVES A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
REMNANT TO LINGER BEHIND. AND I CAN'T BLAME THIS ON THE
INITIALIZATION...BECAUSE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS EACH HAVE A VERY
WELL-DEFINED INITIAL VORTEX. ON THE OTHER HAND WE HAVE THE
GFDL...WHICH KEEPS PAUL AS A STRONG AND DEEP HURRICANE AND RACES IT
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE MOMENT...THE COURSE OF LEAST REGRET
IS TO FAVOR THE GFDL SOLUTION. INTERESTINGLY...THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH IS DESIGNED TO SORT OUT MODEL BIASES...ALSO
FAVORS THE GFDL SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
SUPERENSEMBLE FORECAST...WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE
TRADITIONAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE SHEAR WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND SO SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. AFTER THAT...SOME WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVERTAKES THE CYCLONE. THE GFDL
STILL WANTS TO MAKE PAUL A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL BUT IF THE
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE THE SHEAR RIGHT THIS SEEMS OVERDONE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. BECAUSE OF THE
SHARP SHEAR GRADIENT...A TRACK TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WOULD KEEP PAUL IN A LIGHTER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE IT
COULD MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH LONGER.

A 72 HOUR POINT IS BEING GIVEN ONLY SO AS NOT TO SHOW THE TRACK
ENDING ABRUPTLY OFFSHORE. I DON'T REALLY EXPECT THE CIRCULATION TO
SURVIVE A PASSAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0900Z 16.2N 111.5W 85 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 17.2N 111.9W 90 KT
24HR VT 24/0600Z 19.1N 111.3W 95 KT
36HR VT 24/1800Z 21.4N 110.3W 85 KT
48HR VT 25/0600Z 23.6N 108.2W 65 KT
72HR VT 26/0600Z 27.0N 104.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
96HR VT 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
I wonder if there is any chance of Paul's remnants bringing more rain to W. TX . . .
Looks like Xavier is still only TS strength, but they are expecting it to strengthen to low cat 2 over the next 24-36 hrs, according to this:

remarks:
221500z position near 11.1s 167.1e.
Tropical cyclone (tc) 01p (xavier), located approximately 445 nm
east-southeast of honiara, Solomon islands, has tracked westward at
03 knots over the past six hours. Over the past 12 hours the system
has only weakly intensified from the previous forecast. Deep convec-
tion has become less organized over the low level circulation center
with multiple cells developing on the southern and south-eastern
periphery. Tc 01p remains in a weak vertical wind shear environment
with favorable upper level outflow allowing the system to continue
to intensity through the forecast. Tc 01p will begin to track towards
a series of mid-latitude troughs approaching over eastern Australia.
Maximum significant wave height at 221200z is 21 feet. Next warnings
at 230300z and 231500z.//

are you gettin ready to evacuate? this doesnt look like one to fool around with. I wish you the best, this blog should heat up as people get up this morning
the tropical update on the weather channel at 5:50 am edt said that west texas will see significant rain from Paul, according to their forcast track.
I don't live in Baha, btw, but in the BAHAmas . . . lol. I agree with the rest of what u said though. It's hard to believe Baha has gotten hit 3 times this year, while no ATL storm made a mainland landfall. Milagro . . .

Good Morning all.
Mornin gatorx, How are you today? Another storm for baja?? I feel so left out this year...............
hi pottery (blushing)
feel blessed my friend
yes indeed, and its raining on me today. with lots more to come it seems.
Good morning everyone.

Time for another week.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
535 AM CDT MON OCT 23 2006
...

HIGH PRESSURE IS ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND THE RESULTING
CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND DRY AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS WILL DROP FAST LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. MID 30S ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A
CRESTVIEW TO WAYNESBORO LINE W/ LOW TO MID 40S ALL THE WAY TO THE
COAST. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AS WELL.
NORMALLY COOL LOCATIONS SUCH AS VALLEYS MAY SEE A HEAVIER FROST AND
SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT SENSITIVE PLANTS AND ANIMALS.
DEBATED A FROST ADVISORY...BUT DO NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD FROST AND
WILL PASS ALONG TO THE DAY SHIFT FOR CONTINUED MONITORING. /13
Mornin nash. Hows the coffee going down? Im thinking of another cup to get kickstarted here.........
another day, another dollar....mail box nash
Morning everyone. Late start this morning but at the least Im starting. Look for calif. to get some bad storms this yr. Baha in for another blow.
Cold front movin across tampa area today. quite breezy, screwin up my shell hunting, the gulf is choppy 3-5 ft waves. cold front brings are high from 90 to 78 lol. im from Buffalo..that "aint no cold front" lol
Can a blob form from the tail end of that front? it looks like last weeks pattern that brought all that bad stuff to patraps neck of the woods. storms flarin up over on that side of gulf again.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED W/W/A SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL


TODAY/TONIGHT...
FRONTAL BDRY WILL SURGE SWD THRU THE CWA TODAY...ENDING THE SPATE OF
DAYS WITH ABOVE NORMAL/NR RECORD TEMPS...BUT UNFORTUNATELY PASSING
THRU WITH LITTLE FANFARE PRECIP-WISE.
IF THOSE DEPARTURES AREN`T A STARK ENOUGH CONTRAST...JUST WAIT UNTIL
TONIGHT. CONTINUED COOL AIR ADVECTION THRU TONIGHT WITH WDSPRD 40S
AND L50S ...WHICH MEANS MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MIN TEMPS A GOOD
20F BELOW THIS MORNINGS READINGS.
thanks. on Anna Maria Island we wont get as cold as Pan Handle of Fla. Saturday and yesterday were extremely hot, as anyone who watched the Bucks game knows. was well over 100deg inside Raymond James Stadium.
nash dear....mail call
One year ago:


BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005

...WILMA MOVING A LITTLE FASTER NORTHEASTWARD BUT NOT YET
STRENGTHENING...
...NEW WARNINGS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA
GRUESA ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY
ISLANDS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF
SAN FELIPE TO PROGRESO.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES... 145
KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CANCUN MEXICO AND ABOUT 315 MILES... 505
KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056...LOCATED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 185 MILES... 295 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF WILMA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 47 MPH... 76 KM/HR.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY MEASURED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 13 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST NEAR AND TO THE
SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY...AS WELL AS IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STORM SURGE
FLOODING ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE AS WILMA MOVES AWAY.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10
TO 15 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS APPROACHING 50 INCHES. RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA
INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8
INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...22.4 N... 86.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 961 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB









Randrewl, Will you be boarding up in memorial today or checking to see if your furnace works in preperation for the coming cold front?
uh This cold front will shut down the hurricane season for good
I still have several neighbors that have shutters up. They're not taking them down till Thanksgiving week.
Rand...I looked at that for a minute and didn't realize it was from the past...thank goodness it was and thank goodness I can read! I, for one, am glad this season has been a dead one - at least for the Gulf...last time I visited the beaches, I believe those businesses were glad as well.
A question: is the situation of having a TS/Hurricane in both the northern and southern hemisphere one that occurs often?
booking conventions in tampa again since hurricains are out of site and out of mind for people in other areas of the country. and tourists arent as fearful to plan trips down to the storm prone areas. hopefully giving business in coastal areas time to recoup losses.
The ITCZ is still staying fairly well north of the Equator. I would imagine it would be possible to have storms on both sides of it as long as this conditions remains. The southern hemisphere seems to have always had nastier weather than the north and that is one reason there hasn't been as much exploration for oil in the southern regions. It is usually just too tough to anchor off shore drilling rigs in that area. I think some companies are going to attempt it soon. Should be interesting, because much of the area has not had many test wells put down, but the ones that were looked promising.
Morning all! Hard to believe we're wearing sweaters and talking about the end of hurricane season. This is one case where boring is good.

Thank God for a realtively uneventful season!
Floodie
Also, if you accept the 'Snowball Earth' theory, almost all the surface land mass was bunched up down around Antarctica. If that was the case, then most plant and any animal life would have been in that region. Since that it what eventually becomes oil, there could be a huge amount in that area.
That's right Goofoff. Around the Falklands there is an estimated one billion gallons of oil. Just the tip of the proverbial iceberg.

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