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Paul in Mexico; World Series weather in Detroit

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:30 PM GMT on October 21, 2006

The area of disturbed weather near Puerto Rico (90L) has become disorganized, and tropical storm formation is no longer a threat from this system. In the Pacific, Tropical Storm Paul has the potential to be a serious threat to Baja on Monday and mainland Mexico on Tuesday. The 2am EDT run of the GFDL model intensified Paul into a major Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds just south of Baja on Monday. While this forecast is probably too aggressive based on the GFDL forecasts I've seen for the other Pacific Mexican hurricanes this season, I do think it is likely Paul will become a hurricane by landfall, and could cause extensive damage if it hits a populated area.

World Series forecast
In another matter of weather concern for the U.S. and Caribbean, tonight's World Series baseball game looks like it will be mostly rain-free. A strong cold front is expected to move in late tonight, bringing heavy rain after 1am to Detroit. Today's game time temperature should be about 48 degrees, and wind will be about 10 mph out of the southwest--blowing from right field towards left field. There are some scattered rain showers that may affect the game today, but I doubt these will be strong enough to cause a rain delay.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Paul and the series...thank you Dr.
Here Lies The 2006 Hurricane Season

R.I.P.

"Until next year"
hey phillies
Hello to fall along the gulf coast....lows 36 to 41 inland Florida panhandle Monday night.

R.I.P. 2006 Atlantic hurricane season.
Info request: can anyone direct me to a site for recent past FL weather on a certain date? I have a leak in my new roof and I have made a warranty claim ...I would like the insurance company to see the downpour we had about 4 weeks ago..if I could match the leak complaint with the date consistent with the storm data, I'd can overcome their substandard integrity...as they say what rain storm.......thanks!

Thanks for any leads....

RB
It might just about be too early to "celebrate" the death of the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Maybe not where you live SLU. Along the northern GOM...over.

Thanks Dr. Masters, especially for the perspective on the agressiveness of the GFDL.
R.I.P. 2006 Atlantic hurricane season.

LOL....
12. IKE
reelbull...type in the city closest to where U live. Scroll down to history and almanac...type in the date(s) that you're looking for. The history for that date, including rainfall, is listed.
14. SLU
It doesn't take a Cat. 4 hurricane to cause major flooding in the northern gulf
15. IKE
Okay...officially it's over in 40 days.....10 hours...52 minutes.
Posted By: reelbull at 12:01 PM CDT on October 21, 2006.

Info request: can anyone direct me to a site for recent past FL weather on a certain date? I have a leak in my new roof and I have made a warranty claim ...I would like the insurance company to see the downpour we had about 4 weeks ago..if I could match the leak complaint with the date consistent with the storm data, I'd can overcome their substandard integrity...as they say what rain storm.......thanks!

Thanks for any leads....

RB


Well, your local NWS office should have a page like this one; the "Preliminary Climatology Data (CF6)" shows the conditions on each day of the month (temperature, rainfall, sky conditions, weather, etc).
17. IKE
Posted By: SLU at 12:08 PM CDT on October 21, 2006.

It doesn't take a Cat. 4 hurricane to cause major flooding in the northern gulf


Agree...we had 2 1/2 inches of rain the other day and SE TX has been flooded. I was speaking tropical storm/hurricane season.
Posted By: Ron5244 at 9:41 AM PDT on October 21, 2006.
Here Lies The 2006 Hurricane Season ...


What kind of odds $ would you give me on that?
19. SLU
well i will not rule out the possibility of another couple of cyclones this year
I agree SLU and that possibility could involve life and property.
And it won't be over until then IKE!
Hola amigos!
Anyone there? The last person to leave a comment was Randrewl at 12:21 PM CDT...
...2006 dies... 2007 rises from 2006 to have 19 name storm's with the re-formation of the La Nina ....
Thanks to everyone who gave me some help....with your help I matched the storm rainfall on 9/26/06 of 2.07 inches (max for that month)..with my cell phone bill date of call to roofing company saying...my roof is leaking from this storm...

now they cant say...what rain....

I will check out the rest of your suggestions..maybe there are radar histories etc. too....

Is there such a speciality...Forensic Weather?

Thanks Wunderblogers for teaching me....

Reel BUll
26. MZT
I remember a couple of the models a few days ago were projecting the formation of Paul on the Pacific side. At least we know they aren't asleep...
LOL
I think its time to move over hurricane season. Time to talk about the winter season.
Thats exactly what I've been thinking!
Though the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season is ending like an El Nino year, with most of the storms getting caught in an easterly flow. The remnant tropical moisture from Paul should bring some extra rain to the south next week. This has El Nino written all over it.
Reelbull-
Yes there is such a thing as forensic weather services - I know that accuweather offers such a service- no idea how much they charge but I did read a few articles regarding certain jobs that they undertook. Hope that this helps and please let us know how it turns out
Thanks for the World Series Game weather for tonight in Detroit. Sure hope it does not rain..and looking for a Cardinal Victory!
As you know from personal experiennce lightning10 winter "weather" here in SoCal usually means occasional light rain and occasionally having to turn on the central heating.

Sure, I'd be happy to see something about bona fide winter weather, LOL.
That is true. >_> Does anyone know what the exact odds where that the Eastern Pacific would have more named storms then the Alantic? I cant think it was more then 5-10%
Its about 70 degrees here in Vancouver, I have a feeling though that this Winter is going to be a monster snow maker!
That's an interessting question. I wish WU had historical data for the Eastern Pacific. (hint) ;-)
BTW lightning10 that hint was for WU.
I get upsloping moisture from the san gabriel mounten range so on days where Downtown LA is getting nothing more then a light shower it could be downpooring here. Also last year it made it down into the lower 40's in March and we got a good 15 minutes of a hail/sleet mix. Night time temps durning clear December nights can get into the upper 30's in my area. Have had several times where we have had microburst over the area (lastone durning June). The past few years I have noticed an increase in Thunderstorms in the summer yes (yes it happends and I have video of one back in July).

While the weather is not as interesting as most other parts of the contery every year more radical things are happening. I remember when summers where very dry know they are much more moist. Winter storms are less frequent but stornger.
... I have a feeling though that this Winter is going to be a monster snow maker!

Why is that Mr. Wish?
03 was an El Nino Winter. I remember the day the Winter weather forecast came out, they predicted an 85% chance of above average snowfall for the Northwest. The next morning there was a cold heavy rain and by lunch it changed over to a wet snow, then all snow. The snow fell heavily but began to stick and once it started sticking it didn't stop piling up. Everyone was caught off guard, including NOAA. They had to close down all the schools and send us home. My house had some of the highest precipitation, about five inches. The next morning the snow was almost completely gone. I believe this was November 14, and most likely one of the worst early season snowstorms on record.
lightning10 my comment was too general. The highly varied terrain makes for highly varied local weather.

I believe we got some BB size hail here in Woodland Hills from that March storm though.
Hey Wishcasterboy hows it going?

It's definetly an El Nino year. We here in Northern California had one of your earliest rains on record. The last time we got rain this early was on Holloween of 1997, the big El Nino year.

With earlier rain than 1997 this year, I wonder what El Nino will bring for us this year.

Patrick
We had about four other major snowstorms that year. Including one that brought two inches of freezing rain after dumping seven inches of snow. This baby closed school for a week! There was a huge debate on whether those days should be made up. We had to make up an extra week of school at the end of the year, the most pointless week ever!
Evening all

GFS is flirting with the CATL Low into the Carrib! CMC is also. SHEAR looks to be rather low in the area for the forcast period.

And a quick note! Hurricane season does not end until Nov 30th. Anything can happen until it is not possible anymore. Unlikely, BUT, it can and has.
Hey Patrick, my names Micheal but you can call me Mike.
Did you get snow in Northen California in 03 Patrick.
I remember last winter there where 2 big weak cold storms in March. The first one didnt dig as far south as expected. It got cold. Snow level made it down to 1,500 feet. However almost all moisture stayed north of the So Cal area.

Then I remember sitting in class reading about another cold air blast but since it was middle of March that the person who wrote the local forcast for the area said something like "it would be a total shocker if it got as cold as computers predict cause the nights are not as short and a few other things". The storm made it down like the first with cooler temps and more moisture. Snow level went down to 1,500 feet with areas lower then that reporting lots of hail/sleet.

At that time they blamed the cold snap on the very weak La Nina.
This is what I hope to see this year.




Ho ho ho Mary Christmas!
I dont think we got snow that year. Normally during an El Nino it is too warm for us to get snow. We got snow last year in 2005 several times, had never seen anything like it. Although I wasnt around during the dust bowl, I bet we got plenty of snow then.
Thats weird, the only precipitating snow we saw was in early March. We got a ton of Winter Storm Warnings but nothing ever happend.
What elevation do you live at Patrick?
lightning10 it didn't look like any hail I'd seen before. It was small translucent pellets.

I called it hail because this site indicated sleet only falls where the surface temp is below freezing. Also only a possibility of rain and small hail was predicted.

I see the NWS glossary entry has nothing to say about surface temps though. Did you see it reported as sleet anywhere?
Never see heavy sleet precip around here. That would be interesting to watch though!
I don't get it, they say its 70 degrees but it feels so much colder!
Anybody here a fan of the Middle Ages?
LowerCal I know what you mean. MY area as well it looked like nothing I had ever seen before as well. I send an Email to Paul Kocin of TWC with this question. He told me this...(my name is Nick by the way)

"Maybe what you saw was sleet or ice pellets rather than hail. My son has a friend who's going to Whittier College and I actually drove in the area last time I was in LA - think Nixon's library is there. Since you live in the LA area - you usually don't see frozen precipitation except perhaps some hail in convective showers but this may be one of those few times where you came pretty close to seeing snow but just missed out and saw sleet.

It's very common in the east and usually occurs with temperatures above freezing. Sleet, in case you don't know, is simply snow that has not completely melted but refreezes before it reaches the ground. The air above you might have been very cold and it was probably snowing not too far above the ground. Since air near the ground was above freezing, it was probably not deep enough to completely melt the sleet before it reached the ground as rain so you saw the ice pellets."
I've only seen sleet one (maybe other) time. I was marching in it. It didn't seem very interesting, LOL.
Hi Nick!
Whats going on. >_>. I use to post here all the time by the way tell Hurricane season. Once that started it got to crazzy for me. So I held off posting tell the season cooled down a lot.
Isn't this blog great Nick! (I'm Steve.)

I'm sure it was sleet now and that that's an oversimplified explanation on the uiuc.edu site.
Thats good to know steave cause I never was 100% shure. I kick myself everyday for not having any pictures of that. It was because of that storm I got a digital camera. With my luck it will be a real stale year with nothing interesting durning the winter time. Just like when are local ABC 7 after the El Nino year got a real time doppler radar it only rained a few times cause of the La Nina that year.
I know what you mean Nick. It seems to be a rule of life that once you're prepared for an event the chances of it happening are drastically lowered, LOL.
!Hola Amigos!
Who is Nick?
Hola Amigo! Nick esta lightning10.
Herea isa loopa of da Tropical Storma Pablo(Ya, I know that isn't spanish)

Linka
I'm taking Latin in school instead of spanish.
Latin!, lets hope you don't end up like P.S. LOL!
P.S.?
I'll post the story on my blog, then you'll get it.
Looks like one-armed Pablo is losing his arm.
I'm off to check the rest of the latest from the NHC (already an hour old), BBL.
That might hurt...
Posted By: Wishcasterboy at 4:30 PM CDT on October 21, 2006.

Anybody here a fan of the Middle Ages?


I am!
I cant find it on the web but its by C. D. Bryan.
Anybody familiar with the "Medieval Warm Period", followed soon after by the "Little Ice Age"?
hi 1990hurricane
Heres the graph of of them....

1900hurricane anything going on in the tropics
i live in buffalo we get ice storms in the spring 2. seen 2 inch accumulations on trees and power lines. in fla now.still 10,000 without power back home from snowstorm on 13th.goin home nov 1st 2 repair storm damage.
Posted By: ryang at 5:29 PM CDT on October 21, 2006.

1900hurricane anything going on in the tropics


There is Tropical Storm PAUL

hi wishcasterboy
1900hurricane is there a shorter name i can call you
You can call 1900!
thanks 1900
The Houston Area had an Ice storm about 10 years ago, and even though it wasn't huge, power was out for several days and school was canceled for one of the six days it has ever been canceled. I would HATE to have a big one.
Can I call you ryan? It is very...easy for me to remember.
Posted By: Wishcasterboy at 5:22 PM CDT on October 21, 2006.

Anybody familiar with the "Medieval Warm Period", followed soon after by the "Little Ice Age"?


Can't say I've been around long enough to be familiar with it, but yes, I've heard of it.
1990 you can
Seems this one bears close watching.

TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 21 2006

PAUL IS CURRENTLY ON A STRENGTHENING TREND GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CLOUD PATTERN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE
CENTER IS STILL PARTIALLY EXPOSED IT IS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTION. T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0 ON
THE DVORAK SCALE SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD
TO 45 KNOTS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
RELIABLE GFDL MODEL MAKES PAUL A POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH 104 KNOTS
IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...JUST BEFORE LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO.
ON THE OTHER HAND...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...ALSO RELIABLE...
WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT 48 TO 72 HOURS AS PAUL
INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND SHEAR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MEETS HALFWAY AND CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING BUT ONLY TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE.

PAUL HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280
DEGREES AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE RIDGE AND TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD
IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. THEREAFTER...PAUL SHOULD ACCELERATE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
MAINLAND MEXICO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONG
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A FEW
MODELS ONLY
...SINCE THE UKMET AND GFS MODELS LOSE THE CIRCULATION
MUCH EARLIER.

...

FORECASTER AVILA
1990 can you update your blog so i can send you mail.lol
wishcasterboy seems to be asking a lot of questions
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F

[1004HPA] NEAR 10.9S 168.9E

First Tropical Depression in the South Pacific =D
ryang has mail!
1990 what a coincidence.Excuss my spelling
No problem! Just be careful with the 9s and the 0s when you spell my handel.
: )
I'm assumeing that by now, all of you have read my blog, correct?
101. ryang
1900 no problem
Medieval Warm Period was a time of unusually warm weather during the European Medieval period. Initial research on the MWP and the following Little Ice Age (LIA) was largely done in Europe, where the phenomenon was most obvious and clearly documented.

It was initially believed that the temperature changes were global. However, this view has been questioned; the 2001 IPCC report summarises this research, saying: "current evidence does not support globally synchronous periods of anomalous cold or warmth over this timeframe, and the conventional terms of 'Little Ice Age' and 'Medieval Warm Period' appear to have limited utility in describing trends in hemispheric or global mean temperature changes in past centuries".[1]

During this time wine grapes were grown in Europe as far north as southern Britain[2][3][4] although less extensively than they are today[5] (however, factors other than climate strongly influence the commercial success of vineyards, for example wine is made in Alaska today; and the time of greatest extent of medieval vineyards falls outside the MWP). The Vikings took advantage of ice-free seas to colonize Greenland and other outlying lands of the far north. The period was followed by the Little Ice Age, a period of cooling that lasted until the 19th century when the current period of global warming began.

It has been noted that most paleoclimatologists developing regionally specific climate reconstructions of past centuries conventionally label their coldest interval as "LIA" and their warmest interval as the "MWP".[6][7] Others follow the convention and when a significant climate event is found in the "LIA" or "MWP" time frames, associate their events to the period. Some "MWP" events are thus wet events or cold events, particularly in central Antarctica where climate patterns opposite to the North Atlantic area have been noticed.

The Little Ice Age brought bitterly cold winters to many parts of the world, but is most thoroughly documented in Europe and North America. In the mid-17th century, glaciers in the Swiss Alps advanced, gradually engulfing farms and crushing entire villages. The River Thames and the canals and rivers of the Netherlands often froze over during the winter, and people skated and even held frost fairs on the ice. The first Thames freeze was in 1607; the last in 1814, although changes to the bridges affected the river flow and hence the possibility of freezes. The freeze of the Golden Horn and the southern section of Bosphorus took place in 1622. The winter of 1794/95 was particularly harsh when the French invasion army under Pichegru could march on the frozen rivers of the Netherlands, whilst the Dutch fleet was fixed in the ice in Den Helder harbour. In the winter of 1780, New York Harbor froze, allowing people to walk from Manhattan to Staten Island. Sea ice surrounding Iceland extended for miles in every direction, closing that island's harbors to shipping.

The severe winters affected human life in ways large and small. The population of Iceland fell by half, but this was perhaps also due to fluorosis caused by the eruption of the volcano Laki in 1783 [4]. The Viking colonies in Greenland, however, clearly died out because they could no longer grow enough food there. In North America, American Indians formed leagues in response to food shortages [5].

"In many years, snowfall was much heavier than recorded before or since, and the snow lay on the ground for many months longer than it does today [6]." Many springs and summers were outstandingly cold and wet, although there was great variability between years and groups of years. Crop practices throughout Europe had to be altered to adapt to the shortened, less reliable growing season, and there were many years of death and famine (such as the Great Famine of 1315-1317, although this may have been before the LIA proper). Viticulture entirely disappeared from some northern regions. Violent storms caused massive flooding and loss of life. Some of these resulted in permanent losses of large tracts of land from the Danish, German, and Dutch coasts [7].

The extent of mountain glaciers had been mapped by the late 1800s. In both the north and the south temperate zones of our planet, snowlines (the boundaries separating zones of net accumulation from those of net ablation) were about 100 m lower than they were in 1975 [8]. In Glacier National Park, the last episode of glacier advance came in the late 18th and early 19th century [9]. In Chesapeake Bay, Maryland, large temperature excursions during the Little Ice Age (~1400-1900 AD) and the Medieval Warm Period (~800-1300 AD) possibly related to changes in the strength of North Atlantic thermohaline circulation [10].

In Ethiopia and Mauritania, permanent snow was reported on mountain peaks at levels where it does not occur today. Timbuktu, an important city on the trans-Saharan caravan route, was flooded at least 13 times by the Niger River; there are no records of similar flooding before or since. In China, warm weather crops, such as oranges, were abandoned in Jiangxi Province, where they had been grown for centuries. In North America, the early European settlers also reported exceptionally severe winters. For example, in 1607-8 ice persisted on Lake Superior until June [11].

The Little Ice Age can be seen in the art of the time; for example, snow dominates many village-scapes by the Flemish painter Pieter Brueghel the Younger, who lived from 1564 to 1638.

Another famous person to live during the LIA was Antonio Stradivari, a violin maker. The colder climates of the time caused the wood from the trees he used to be denser; the superb tone of Stradivari's creations has been partially attributed to this. However, critics of this theory point out that many violin makers who used the same wood that Stradivari used failed to attain similar perfections of tone in their instruments, and that the violins Stradivari made from broad-ringed wood are tonally equal to his dense-wood creations.



103. ryang
1990 i have not saw your blog
104. ryang
can you update it
The GFDL is on something...



Link


Tropical Cyclone Xavier?
Posted By: ryang at 5:55 PM CDT on October 21, 2006.

can you update it


What do you mean by update it?
Paul a Category 4 storm.. >.>
Interesting HadiesGodWyvern...The southern hemesphere tropical season wants to start early...
A very small Cat 4 too.
112. ryang
1990 i mean put in a new entry
From the 2PM discussion....

The intensity forecast is highly uncertain. The
reliable GFDL model makes Paul a powerful hurricane with 104 knots
in about 4 days...just before landfall on the West Coast of Mexico.
On the other hand...most of the global models...also reliable...
weaken or dissipate the system in about 48 to 72 hours as Paul
interacts with an upper trough and shear increases significantly.
The official forecast meets halfway and calls for additional
strengthening but only to a category one Hurricane.


I'm going to stick with the conservative side of the forecast, though it is a El Nino year.
What's wrong with the current one?
I'm going to be bold and say Paul will become a strong Cat 3.
1900 Got guts!

I think an eyewall is forming.
My reason for thinking this is because no major huriacne has hit Baja California in October, infact there has never been a major huuricane to ever strike Baja head-on!

Paul is supposed to miss Baja California.
I say it will be a Strong tropical storm or weak hurricane.
Sorry, a little big. I'll fix that! Don't spam that post!
Close enough to be a threat.
Ya, but not head on!

That invest in the S. Pac. looks very tropical.
Well the overall point is it should be no major hurricane at landfall, because of climatological history.
According to climitology, something like 2005 souldn't have happened!

This is an invest.
I can't say no to the possibility of this happening again!



But something like it has happend before....



It has some ground to stand on at least.
Link

Only happened once!


wonder how fast it'll be Xavier

right now Fiji Meteorological Center has it at 25 knots, I guess 10min average, and a becoming a tropical cyclone is at a fair to moderate possibility.
Posted By: HadesGodWyvern at 6:40 PM CDT on October 21, 2006.

wonder how fast it'll be Xavier


Just a guess. Very Fast!
Gotta go!
Ya in recorded history and another fact you should know.

The 1933 Atlantic hurricane season is the second most active Atlantic hurricane season on record, with 21 storms forming during that year. The season, which began on June 1, 1933 and lasted until November 30, 1933, is surpassed only by the 2005 season, which broke the record with its 28 storms. The 1933 season saw tropical activity before its start, and a tropical cyclone was active for all but 13 days from June 28 to October 7. Tropical cyclones that did not approach populated areas or shipping lanes, especially if they were relatively weak and of short duration, may have remained undetected. Because technologies such as satellite monitoring were not available until the 1960s, historical data on tropical cyclones from this period are often not reliable

There could have been even more!
Who knows, the 1933 Hurricane Season could have been more active then the 2005 Hurricane Season!
Bye 1900.
Were is the invest in the south pacific?
just looked up 2005-06 season for when the first Fiji region named storm was and it was Cyclone Tam on January 9th 2006

wow if they can get a named storm in October then.
near Nadi, Fiji
Your point?
LOL!
Posted By: Wishcasterboy at 3:28 PM PDT on October 21, 2006.
Heres the graph of of them....


Interesting. What are all the different colors? Different locations, different methods of estimating? Could you post the key or a link to the source?

I see the current trend is a lot bigger than anything in the last millenium.
Remember this little oddy....



Cyclone Caterina
LowerCal,

half of that graph is what I would say is a good estimate. The climate could have been as warm as it is Today, we just don't know. Another "Little Ice Age" could be on its way.
Posted By: Wishcasterboy at 3:54 PM PDT on October 21, 2006.
Medieval Warm Period ...


Much fascinating info and much of it I was not already familiar with. If you post the source I could see what the citations ([1]...[10]) are.
The World is old and wise, look! she has a story to tell....



Mankind ant got nothing on this!
hey wishcaster where r u from??
FYI.... Link
Precambrian.Linkie...Link
Battle Ground Washington, but now I live in Vancouver Washington.
A lot of it has to do with where the continents are located....

On or near the Poles= Cold House Earth

On or near the Equator= Hot House Earth

We live in a "Cold House Earth".
I know I found some really cool reconstructed images of what the Earth looked like in its past, let me try and find them again.
Heres the images....



Do you recognize this version of our Earth?
You got to remeber that the Green House effect
did this to venus
To this
N/a
Cambrian and Latest Precambrian

In the latest Precambrian and early Paleozoic ,the supercontinent Rodinia, centered about the south pole, broke apart as blocks drifted northward. Most notable of these blocks were the large continents North America [Laurentia], Baltica, and Siberia.

North America lay isolated, stretched across the Cambrian equator. An arc approached from the south [east today] and Baltica and Siberia approached from the SE.

Posted By: Wishcasterboy at 5:20 PM PDT on October 21, 2006.
FYI.... Link


Thanks!!
Im on Bourbon Street!Link, Wave Guys..
The Earth has servived as a habitable planet for eons.
Also (you guys should have read my blog)
that Venus and Mars we at one point
Earth Like planets
No problem LowerCal,

Mike.
Venus went the same way Earth's going to go
Most likely that Venus had life on it like human's.
But Earth has been the most successful planet of them all as you can see.
Wishcasterboy Venus got life way earler than
eartg and they were more advanced than us,
and they destroyed Venus.
Heres the Bridge ..than goes 25 miles across Lake Ponchatrain.....Evacuation Route ..alsoLink
Mars however died because one of it's moons (the way Phobos and Demios is going to gp)
hit Mars and destroyed all the life on the planet (This procces takes millions of years)
Heres the Bridge..Link
Well Mars is a fixer upper for sure. But with a little tweaking I'm sure it rival Earth in terms of habitability.
I'm taking Latin in school instead of spanish.

1900,

U realize that techically Spanish IS actually Latin, modern style? LOL

I've heard that if u take Latin, Romance languages, esp. Portuguese, Spanish, Italian (and maybe even Romanian) are easier to learn.

Not to mention the useful roots for English words LOL.

Wonder if Greek would be better for people who want to study weather . . . .
Heres the North Shore side..LiveLink
Or Mars was striped away of its Ozone and Magnetic Shpere by the sun.
So Venus and Mars were earth like planets and
2 ways the earth would go sooo Earth is right now going to go the way of Venus
BECAUSE OF US; Thats why theres more hurricanes!
Heres a live video Link to The Wharf of the Port of New Orleans...Link
Posted By: CybrTeddy at 12:44 AM GMT on October 22, 2006.

Wishcasterboy Venus got life way earler than
eartg and they were more advanced than us,
and they destroyed Venus.


Posted By: CybrTeddy at 12:45 AM GMT on October 22, 2006.

Mars however died because one of it's moons (the way Phobos and Demios is going to gp)
hit Mars and destroyed all the life on the planet (This procces takes millions of years)


Mad Scientist in the house?
Venus (before destruction)




Mars Before Destruction
CyberTeddy,

I see a rational point but what your saying is way over the top and cannot be proved.
Most of it anyway.
Actualy
we found remains of Water on Mars
Venus has hardly been explorde and when
you called me a "Mad scientist" I am working
on a deegre in Astronomy and Weather!
Also Venus is way older than Earth.
Patrap, that is the same bridge the train comes in from Slidell on, or does the train have its own bridge?

This is also the bridge that was heavily damaged in Katrina, right?

Well your talking about "Little Greem Men" I have the right to be a little sceptical mam.

But thats great for you that your persuing a deegre!
Cyber- My younger brother has a masters Degree in Astronomy, funny he's never mentioned any of this to me. I think I'll ask him. By the way I thought George Bush was responsible for all global warming in all known worlds.LOL
JER
Whatup Sebastian!
World Series -Wish- enjoy reading a lot of your posts,
JER
If its not the Mariners or Red Sox I find it hard to enjoy! Glad to here somebody enjoys my posts.
Train Has own Bridge..Ill get it..
This is the day after Katrina..the 2 spans are I-10..toward Slidell....notice how the surge pushed thos 60 ton bridge sections...the bridge to the left is a Highway 11 bridge..the train Bridge is left of that..out of view...The pic enlarges to show detail...Link
Sebastian,

When you you say tigers do you mean this? LOL! Link

Mike
Lower 9th Ward..24 Hrs after the storm..Houses tossed like toys from theLink water..
Wish-Talking about Detroit Tigers, back to game keep them educational very nice
Later
JER
It's Mike!
Theres a joke I originally set up with my name. Wishcasterboy is the opposite of what I really am.
I am a conservative person who considers himself a Democrat.
205. BtnTx
Howdy, BTN here just lurking - upgraded laptop to XP Pro - now I get all kind of weird problems folowing links posted, So I guess I am in test mode for awhile.
..Wave!..Link
Patrap looks like New Orleans is as filthy as ever.I dont see any cross dressers on the street there tonight though ,did they clean up there
Dont know about that..But this is coming ..Link
Im located in the NW corner of the Crosshairs..Link
Have fun dancing in the rain! Link
211. BtnTx
Patrap, I am sure this is a stupid question, but what is the purpose of the man made canals that run thru New Orleans?
Kenner I heard.
Every drop of rain thay falls within the Metro area..has to be pumped out by the drainage canals via the Pumping stations..it can handle 1 inch to 2 inches the first hour..then a half in..perhour there after...
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
435 PM PDT SAT OCT 21 2006


WAZ019-040-220300-
/O.NEW.KPQR.AF.Y.0003.061021T2335Z-061022T0300Z/
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLDWATER RIDGE VISITORS CENTER...
MOUNT ST. HELENS...TOUTLE...ARIEL...COUGAR
435 PM PDT SAT OCT 21 2006

...ASHFALL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PORTLAND HAS ISSUED AN ASHFALL
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING.

AN ASHFALL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF MOUNT ST. HELENS UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING. A ROCK FALL
HAS OCCURRED AT MOUNT ST HELENS AROUND 3:18 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS HAS CAUSED A PUFF OF ASH TO BE EMITTED FROM THE SUMMIT OF
MOUNT ST. HELENS. WINDS ALOFT AT THE HEIGHT OF THE PLUME ARE
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH AND WOULD CARRY THE ASH PLUME OFF TO THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH SKAMANIA COUNTY. PILOTS HAVE REPORTED THE
PLUME ABOUT 2000 FEET ABOVE THE CRATER RIM. LIGHT AMOUNTS OF ASH
MAY PRECIPITATE OUT OVER SKAMANIA COUNTY AROUND MOUNT ST. HELENS
AND TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. USE CAUTION IN THE VICINITY OF
MOUNT ST. HELENS.
The system is a an engineering MArvel...and was design by a Frenchman..
All you need to know about the city of New Orleans.... Link
Heres some info about the Design and how it works..Link
Crap thats my area!
New Orleans is the most curupt city in America
Probably are stuffing the leaves with features
all the public officials could care less about the people there if you belive different you voted wrong . Redneck Riveara
Sounds like a redneck..LOL
221. BtnTx
Thanks Patrap for the info. I have wondered for a long time what the canals where for.
Funny they have body bags on hand for 10,000 people in 2001 but had no escape plans for the people there .Probably spent the money on another jazz museum.
The sky is clear were I am, but the apartment complex is obscuring my view of Mount Saint Helens!
It's almost to dark to see here!
New Orleans is a fading city and its not going to get any better until we get a real leader in the house!
Oh.... were are you when we need you!



The Country's saving grace.
I think the geographic area of New Orleans just doesn't work.
229. BtnTx
I don't think New Orleans will be abandoned. We have the technology to keep it afloat if we want to.
It's a huge investment and I'm just not sure its worth the finances anymore. This kind of decision requires a lot of studying.
231. BtnTx
okay - nothing going on here - i am gone for the night and need to turn my wireless network off (see my blog)
LOL..New Orleans was here and Prospering..Long before the country was formed..yall Uneducated fo sho!..LMAO!//and It was the Largest Land Purchase in America..Guess we will have to give it Back to France..LOL!
LOL...Yall sum bunch..not 1 man here...let alone a veteran..
I'm leaving (kind of), I can't really leave my house so I'll just check in on things now and then to see if things pick up around here.
emergency work for 2 days WOW...sum Feat..
The good People of Mississippi and the Learned educated Americans..Know calamity has no Borders.
I know how you feal Pat, but what do you actually have in Orleans?
We have the Soul of a NAtion ..Imbedded in our Culture,Our Music,,Oh and the 40% refining of Crude into Oil...We got it all..Baby.Wine WOmen,...song.
And not 1 freaking county.LOL
I've lost most of my hope.
Stumble thru my Blog..ya Might learn something.
wishcast you go boy
Did any of your family fight in WW2?
Hey Auburn, feel free to come into the main blog, join us!
You didnt read very long in My Blog or you would know that my friend...Yes My Father served in WW-2 and passed away March 21 2003..the day this last conflict started.
Where was he stationed?
Patrap I'm a big World War II buff. I personally believe they really where the greatest generation.
Dude,..Why would you want to Know that?....He was in the BAttle of Okinowa..Where there was 140,000 lives lost on an ISland 60 X 12..And I served their in the 80s as a MArine too..? Why ..you interested in the Sevice?
Posted By: Wishcasterboy at 12:59 AM GMT on October 22, 2006.

Well your talking about "Little Greem Men" I have the right to be a little sceptical mam.

But thats great for you that your persuing a deegre!


Your missing the point! Were at a point of no return and its just going to get
worse and worse intill we look like Venus
Its called the Green House effect. Venus held life intill the avrage tempetures just rose a few deegres just a few all life on Venus was killed and turn into what we see now A Lava super hot world with a very thick atmosphere
its most likley Venus held intellegant life if this is the cause. Mars most likley didnt.
No Patrap i was there 2 days after Katrina and flew in by helicopterr to save the hospital ther dont be a smart ass
Admin Notice When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged as Spam and ignored.
...Your THAT guy?
Here ..Have a Snickers...
guys whats with all the bickering
to be honest its kinda childish.
It's getting a little to hot in here for me, Peaceout.

Mike
Pltttttt!.....LOL
Now..go crawl back in ya wannabe hole..Coaster...LMAO!....
A NEW TD HAS FORMED NEAR AFRICA ON THE EAST SIDE! 01P NONAME!
But I wont be this accomadating...no sir..not at all..........Ill give ya the Full tour....Need my Street addy?.....its available too.
Just to add to Patrap's assessment of NOLA. It also has one of the buziest ports in the nation. The midwest sends its goods down the Mississippi to be shipped to other places. if it were to shut down completely, alot of mad farmers and businessmen up river. Although it is not exactly NO, don't forget the POrt of Forchan (sp). It is the largest gas station in the nation.
Last FEMA trailer on da corner...Bring a lunch..youll need it..and ice too..LOL
this TD-1 is forcast to become a CAT-2
maybe a Large hurricane.
HEs just a redneck with a Grudge against us Soggy Bottom Boyss.HEll..he aint even Old timing...!
Maybe some Music will take the edge off the Boy...Link
Nice Patrap
Press on nobel creature.... Link
The Safety Dance..LOL..Link
I finally understand what causes friction on this blog, different personalities.
..Here, Have a Snickers..Link
Patrick, you are a quote and quote "MAN", I have no bias against that. I'm an accepting person.
Me too.Beat me up all they want.But not the Good people of a Great City..after befallan tragedy.Thats not cool in any forum these days..not at all.
With that..Good night..sleep well..the Sun will rise tommorrow.
Don't let them beat you down to their level, its so not worth it.
Good night Patrick.
Just got back boy I guess i really touched a nerve tonight. Patrap sorry if I offened you or anyone from the city.The three weeks i spent there and seen the suffering of the people there made me sick.The fact that i can travel 900 miles assemble 15 men charter a heilicopter and land on a roof in less than 23 hours and to stand on that roof and look out at people walking around like zombies needing help was to much for me to take.That is why I said these people need to take a stand and get out and vote to make sure these things dont happen again. There was no reason my crew and the media are there but help for these people were not we are talking about 7 days .This is not a 3rd world country. I respect what you did for your community and never questioned that and never said anything derogatory to the people of no just there so called leaders .
I believe your point is nobel its just hard for people to understand.
Well i guess i am one to state my mind.But when I was asked to go I knew this would be no easy task for our crew.I pulled out all favors to get people to go there to help and these 15 men are living on top of a hospital with the heat up there and the smell loading bodies for the staff while as a humanitarian you feel like f this roof we got to help the people.Why did i not bring food here instaed of tarp materials it is just crazy
hello
whats the exposion north of the islands this hour anyone check it out ?
I know this comment is going to be very unpopular,but I feel it must be said. I'm going to start this by saying I understand that New Orleans was devestated by Hurricane Katrina, I have relatives who like in that area. My grandmother and a brother-in-law were both raised there. And I feel for the citiznes who lost everything during the storm. But you know what in case all of you have forgotten;and apparently 90% of the country has ,Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana were also hard hit;and in some areas as equally devestated, by Hurricane Rita. Yet no news originizations covered that anniversary or mentions that storm period!!! And what is more infuriating to me is while New Orleans and the Mississippi Gulf Coast receives billoins of dollars in government aid. The areas of Southeast Texas and SOuthwest Louisiana hit by Rita have not received 1 cent in aid from the government!!! All their aid has been from religious organiztions. Port Arthur Texas;where 70% of the buildings have been condemned due to storm damage,has not gotten a response from the government for their request for aid..over 1 year after the storm. Sabine Pass Texas and Cameron Louisiana were both literally wiped form the map due to Rita..and they also have received no response to their aid request. Where New Orleans and the Mississippi Gulf Coasts response was unacceptably slow, at least they were responded to. These areas hit by Rita haven't even been responded to over a year later. But doesn't anyone ever hear about this. No!!! So...all I'm saying is give Rita equal time. Because in a lot of ways...their predictament is worse than the Katrina victims. The Rita victims have been completely forgotten.
I didn't know it was that bad, I though Rita was half the show because she is. New Orleans is a major city with much more importance to the Nation. And for Rita being worse I hope you didn't forget the pictures of mayhem at the Superdome. Though of less importance I can understand that the Rita Victim's need help, and I find it just another shining example of our Governments lack of responsibility.
Any opinions on the new TD and a brewing system north of the islands. Maybe the seasons not over yet. Do you see any future canes in the east.
Well, it looks like the Atlantic Basin is the only one currently without any invests at all. This seems pretty early for the Indian Ocean to be getting active . . . .
Any opinions on the new TD and a brewing system north of the islands. Maybe the seasons not over yet. Do you see any future canes in the east.

there is no TD, the one Cybr was talking about is Xavier (or something like that) in the South Hemisphere near Fiji lol
I didn't know it was that bad, I though Rita was half the show because she is. New Orleans is a major city with much more importance to the Nation. And for Rita being worse I hope you didn't forget the pictures of mayhem at the Superdome. Though of less importance I can understand that the Rita Victim's need help, and I find it just another shining example of our Governments lack of responsibility.

Lack of responsibility? What do you mean by that!
Here is the forecast for the area most of us watch.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 220914
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SUN OCT 22 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Hello there.. Good morning.. I heard in the news about TS Paul that will be near of my city, what can i expect?, what does the forecast say.. Hurricane 1 ?( I readed cat 4. Its true? )
We dond't want. TS and Hurrianes anymore, We got enough with hurricanes this year. lol.
See ya later.
Detroit has a basebal team? LOL

j/k

seems we have an area of "disturbed" weather off the NE coast of SA.....



hope everybody enjoys the rest of the weekend, and hope your team wins.... unless your'e a bengal fan...... in that case, stand by to be flattened! :D
George.....nobody needs them.




Detroit has a basebal team? LOL

OOhhh...that hurts!
well, they didn't have a "team" for a while!

our main office is near detroit, couldn't resist, i do the same to them! :D
Thakyou for the map.
It looks that I'll get some rain and winds for tomorrow, i will stay looking for some updates..
Good morning Steve Lyons just said the surface trough dangling in the SW Car. needs to be watched.
GeorgefromLosCabos....Just keep checking in here. Ask your questions...someone will be watching Paul.
307. ryang
rand is that really bad weather east of the islands
A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM THE LOW NE OF PUERTO RICO TO HISPANIOLA CONTINUING
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE BORDER OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA. SFC WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE NEAR THE TROUGH BUT APPEAR TO BE FROM A MORE
TYPICAL EAST DIR ELSEWHERE. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE UNIFORM FROM THE E AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.
309. ryang
leftovers which trough
310. ryang
thelmores said it was
The same one that created the tropical storm in the east pac. Watch cable!
ryang....this is all I can see.




313. ryang
OK
Current conditions in Northern Arkansas
Harrison, Boone County Airport
Last Update on Oct 22, 7:53 am CDT


Light Snow

34F
(1C) Humidity: 76 %
Wind Speed: NW 7 MPH
Barometer: 30.24" (1024.3 mb)
Dewpoint: 27F (-3C)
Wind Chill: 28F (-2C)
Visibility: 8.00 mi


315. ryang
thundercloud could you now get the link for me and stormchaser
317. ryang
rand can you post that pic in my blog
318. ryang
please rand
Done did it.
Everyone posting now is rated Average or above!!!
That hasn't happened often lately.
Hey this is COOL :) Link I think someone already posted this. SOrry
322. ryang
hi stormchaser
Hi ryang :)
324. ryang
stormchaser how is your sunday
Good not much to do today. How you doing: )
326. ryang
I AM FINE
Hello!
Is that something along the ITCZ? In the month of October in an El Nino year?
334. ryang
hey 1900
Oh no the world is coming to its end of days!
cyclonebuster, is it time for those tunnels!

Tunnels?
339. ryang
1900 i did not know you were gone
gone?
343. ryang
1900 i mean from my blog
344. ryang
1900 were you born in the year 1990
>_> El Nino looks nice and healthy. If it started late will that mean it will get storger later in the season as well?
346. ryang
are i should not know
347. ryang
what you mean by storger
stronger*. I mean like will the ocean temp get warmer later into the winter time?
Looking at 1900s SST map, it looks like Xavier will be moving over cooler waters by the end of the forecast period. It's supposed to strengthen to hurricane force before then, I think, but hopefully will not be a long-lived one . . .

I was just thinking this morning how people earlier this year and last year would attempt to run anybody who posted about EPac and other world cyclones off the board. Pretty ironic when u consider that so much of the "action" this year has been in the EPac.

One of the things I really like about Wunderground is that we can see information on tropical systems worldwide. Sorta keeps things in perspective.

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