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Paul continues to strengthen

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:27 PM GMT on October 23, 2006

In the Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical development over the next six days. In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Paul is forecast to pass very close to Baja Tuesday afternoon, and then strike the coast of mainland Mexico north of Mazatlan Tuesday night. Paul is under only about 10 knots of shear this morning, and his satellite appearance has continued to improve. The eye has become better defined the past six hours, and with shear expected to remain below 20 knots until tonight, Paul has a chance to become a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds by Tuesday morning. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters will investigate Paul this afternoon.

Paul is not yet visible on Los Cabos radar, but will be tonight. Paul will pass within 60 miles of Mexico's Socorro Island today. The island is hosting a group of Mexican and German Ham radio operators there for a radio operating event with many antennas up, making contact with other Ham operators around the world. They'll have plenty to talk about tonight, as winds should pick up to 60 mph, with gusts to 100 mph! Hopefully, they won't be saying, "socorro!", the Spanish word for "help".


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Paul, updated every 1/2 hour.

Paul has begun his expected turn to the northwest this morning, and is on track to recurve to the northeast, passing just south of or over the tip of the Baja Peninsula on Tuesday afternoon. The latest (6Z) run of the GFDL model forecasts Paul will make a direct hit on San Lucas and San Jose del Cabo with 105 mph winds. The earlier run (00Z) had Paul just missing Baja to the south. The northern portion of Paul will be in a region of high wind shear near 30 knots beginning Tuesday morning, and most of the global computer models forecast that this shear will rapidly weaken Paul, since he is a small hurricane that is potentially vulnerable to shear. The Canadian model takes the weakening to an extreme and dissipates Paul before the storm reaches Baja. However, the GFDL model, which has outperformed the other models for Paul, continues to show that Paul will remain a Category 2 hurricane until final landfall on mainland Mexico. Given Paul's current organization, I think it likely the storm will be able to maintain Category 2 status when it passes the tip of Baja. Paul should be considerably weaker at second landfall in mainland Mexico, due to wind shear plus land interaction with the mountains of Baja. The landfall in mainland Mexico will be in the same sparsely populated region that Category 3 Hurricane Lane hit last month, and significant damage and casualties are much less of a threat than for Paul's possible impact on Baja.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. M.
Thanks for the update!
And...will Paul then pass into the United States or back out into the Gulf?
Thanks! Im on La Paz... 200km north of Cabo San Lucas reporting for a the most popular online newspaper in the Baja and ur updates are tell me more than the oficial mexican products
saddle, the moisture should be picked up and carried into the US. Winds should be impacted by the Mexican terrain.
Randrewl I've reported your post as unfriendly.
Not everyone is as savvy as others. Stick to the facts and educate rather than belittle.
cgableshurrycanegal...Report what you choose. Saddle happens to be making a humorus statement. If you knew her or myself you would understand that.
PAUL NOW IN THE BORDERLINE OF CAT 2/3 w/ 95kt.. EXPECTE TO REACH 110KT!
cgable - you are so sweet. Rand, I was actually a bit curious but wrote that "tongue in cheek" or "thumb in palm" I suppose since I actually typed it. After posting it, I ventured to another blog and have just returned. Cgable is so correct, I do need educating, but you are right as well. I came back fearing someone here telling me what a stupid moron I am and cgable was kind enough to gently explain to me that the gulf had nothing to worry about.

I really am sorry that anyone got distressed by it. I apologize as usual for distracting everyone from the topic matter.

I knew Rand would appreciate the humor in the question, but actually did hope for a guarantee that the gulf was not to worry. I guess I am getting a little jumpy with the "no surprises" season here.

Please - don't either one of you be mad at me. I'll go back to my corner and be quiet.

Thanks.
saddlegait...there is every possibility that remnants of Paul could enter the Gulf, but whatever was left would be completely destroyed by atmospheric winds. The anomaly of shearing winds in the upper atmosphere has been present all season in the Atlantic, and were it not for this, many storms would have reached the US, and many more would have formed.
Thanks franck - I am assuming you guys will just sent up a saddle-alert if things become worrisome! This morning it was 49 degrees - only supposed to get in the 60s. I love fall, I don't like winter. This year, we didn't get fall...we got summer heat, winter cold, summer heat, winter cold...but no fall. It has been so dry that the leaves just dried up and fell off the trees, so no fall colors either.
Ham radio convention in the middle of a cat3
how ironic -
Thank you Dr Masters.
::VBG:: Saddle and rand... there has been so much verbal abuse on Dr. M's blog in the past that I feared it was starting up again...
I stand corrected and chastised... At least now I know there are playful folks here also.

PLEASE!!! Saddle don't retire to any corners!!! We all only learn by asking. I've picked up *stuff* b/c I so fear and hate the danged things that I figure information is a good tool... LOL... after FL's last two years I ALWAYS check in here. There was a time when all you saw were snotty posts...

My apologies for the misunderstanding.
rodrigo... what do you expect in your area?
Oh, I just posted on my blog, but will throw it in here too. The only reason I took it as a possibility this time as opposed to others is due to the weather patterns changing wherein the fronts are pushing pretty hard from northwest to southeast. So, instead of this particular storm getting sucked northward, it might get pushed back southeastward on it's way across the land...that's a very primitive rendition I am sure compared to the knowledge here, but was just a thought I was entertaining (not really entertaining - fearing).
It'd be really hard for anything to make it into the GoM. The one-two punch of the Mexican mountains tearing up the low level circulation along with shear tearing up the the rest of the storm should kill Paul pretty quickly once it makes landfall.
19. IKE
But the moisture looks to get drawn NE and according to the latest GFS dives another trough into the eastern USA this weekend...followed by an Alberto clipper that brings a deeper trough SE next week. Can U say cold weather???...for the eastern USA.
Yea, Ike. And for being in a moderate El Nino the current weather pattern doesnt look very El Nino-ish.
21. IKE
Got down to 46.6 at my house last night...in the Fl. panhandle next to a warm lake....with a stiff NW wind. Unusually strong cold pool of air for so early in the season. Lows tonight in the 30's inland. Dew points in the 30's now so it's possible.
Paul is a small hurricane... Like John... Perhaps the damage will be expected only in the path of the eye like John.

John passes just over La Paz, over me w/ winds of 100mph... then we'll see the same one more time... not in la paz at this time but in Los Cabos.
Its funny that Paul is becoming a major hurricane. For all us Pauls in this world, we need to put our minds together and make this weaken down before it hits Mexico....I dont want any blame.....He sure is looking stronger and stronger....Kinda like Wilma last year....Wouldnt surprise me if the winds go up to 150MPH......
Thw storm should not reach Wilmas strength by any means..the Progs show a 105knt Strike near BAja..or the Mexcican coast proper..Tommorrow..Link
on a smaller note..Ill be away from the Puter & blogs for around the Next 10days..starting this evening..Something has come up...that requires me to travel..Thanks...
Silverbacks at work
Silverback..Link
If I remember correctly , one year ago today , my neighbor was telling me that I had nothing to worry about Wilma because it had to cross the whole state of Florida before reaching Lake Worth....No such thing as a minimal hurricane
Thanks Patrap.You got my drift
Patrap.I saw "Flags of our Fathers" Saturday night.Every American should see it. Our grandfathers, and fathers were all heroes
Im glad you saw the Movie..Ill see it probaly while Im out of town...Thanks for checking out my Blog...
Patrap~ have safe travels...I've returned from mine, new pics in my blog.

Paul looks to be the strongest thing happening~
23/1200 UTC 16.2N 111.4W T5.0/5.0 PAUL

This ~23/0833 UTC 12.3S 168.3E T4.5/4.5 XAVIER -- South Pacific Ocean...looks worth checking out. Looks like the 'canes are beginning their switch to the S Hemisphere for the year.
Thanks Skye , not going too Far..heres the 06 season at a glance..Link
How about Xavier in the south? Isn't it a bit early in the season down under?

Why is it an "X" instead of an "A"? Anyone know?
ENSO update is out. Gonna wrap up the last 2 weeks here as I missed last monday's update. Looks like week before last brought on some moderate strengthening of El Nino & this last week there was a slight weakening.



Thanks for another great blog entry Dr.
They cycle through a list, pick up where they left off.

Track map for Xavier..it's island bound. Wikipedia mentioned it had some explosive developement.

Here's some satallite shots of it.
Looks like the GFDL war right all along....
GFDL was indeed correct with pauls intensity.
Still a ways to go alot could happen to this cyclone before he makes landfall. Alot of Americans in that area them and the locals are prepared.
Wondering how much & how long it will rain
We are in Mazatlan. Right now it is lovely and sunny. We had all thought we'd had finished with the rain for the year. That would be early but all the climatic conditions were a month ahead this year. Now we would like to know; how much rain we should expect from Paul and how many days of rain should we expect. Can anyone give us a good guess?
ednlyn
you will get 5 to 10 inches of rain.



winds gusting to 90 miles per hour
heavy thunderstorms
Uhm.. I dont think this.. Paul is very small and we need a direct impact to have winds of 90mph in Mazatlan... Mazatlan currently is very far away from the projected path...

By the way the hurricane hunter is on the eye rigth now and have w/ very lower winds...

P. AF307 0117E PAUL OB 13
MAX FL WIND 88 KT NE QUAD 17:45:50 Z
SFC CNTR WITHIN 5 NM OF FL CNTR
ok rod
Storm PAUL: Observed by AF #307
Storm #17 In Eastern Pacific Ocean
Total Flights For Storm #17: 01
Date/Time of Recon Report: October 23, 2006 17:51:50 Zulu
Position Of The Center: 16 40 ' N 111 36 ' W (16.67 N 111.60 W )
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700 Millibars: 2907 Meters (Normal: 3011 Meters)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 40 Knots (46 MPH)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured At: 063 Nautical Miles (72.45 miles) From Center At Bearing 66
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 088 Knots (101.2 MPH) From 157
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 009 Nautical Miles (10.35 Miles) From Center At Bearing 079
Minimum Pressure: 978 Millibars (28.879 Inches)
Maxium Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Outside The Eye: 21C (69.8F) / 3056 Meters
Maximum Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Inside The Eye: 15C (59F) / 3044 Meters
Dewpoint Temperature / Sea Surface Temperature Inside The Eye: 10 C (50F) / NAC (NAF)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: NA
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: NA
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700 Millibars
Navigational Accuracy Measured At: 0.02 Nautical Miles
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At: 2 Nautical Miles

Other Information:
1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 88 KT NE Quadrant at 17:45:50 Z
2: SFC CNTR WITHIN 5 NM OF Flight Level CNTR


Hello. Good afternoon to all.. Now i'm here in La Paz, in the University... I take this time to see how it's going the Hurricane, i see that it's near to become cat 3, right now the Weather here in La Paz, it's a little warm, without winds and cloudy.
I think that Los Cabos are getting more news of this situation..

Hola quetal rodrigo, mi nombre es Jorge Garza de Los Cabos, pero actualmente estoy en La Paz estudiando en la uni. Sabes me da gusta saber que no soy el unico de la Baja Sur que reporta en esta excelente pagina, de hecho somos pocos los mexicanos que estamos reportando...

Nose si alguna vez viste mis antiguos post acerca de los pasados huracanes pero al igual que tu siempre estoy a la espectativa de que es lo que sucede en estas ocaciones, pero bueno te dejo tengo clases.. Saludos!.
Being that there are no Atlantic areas to discuss, Is it permissible to discuss other topics, such as great restaurants, sports, fishing, ?etc.If it is not permissible, I will abide by the rules.It just seems like a good place to discuss other subjects for the time being..i live in south Florida, as i know many of you do, and I was just wondering if it was fitting to discuss other subjects.
melly just above where you type your comment you'll see this

Admin Notice When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged as Spam and ignored.

One topic of the current blog entry is Hurricane Paul about to affect Mexico and some of the commentors here. See some of the preceding comments.

Thanks for asking melly. :) Check out the many other blogs if you don't find anything interesting here.
recon in Paul~
19:16:30 16.58 -11.36 9987 208 74 75
SE quadrent going NE ..i think?...this looked suspect on the lon~
19:08:00 16.2 -11.96 10004 207 49 49 51 42
19:08:30 16.21 -11 10004 203 49 51 50 42
& in 30 seconds. May be past 112?


melly~ Topic~ tropics or blog entry for the most part. We can almost always find a storm somewhere on the planet, be it 'cane or one surrounding the research in trying to figure them out. If ya click on blogs up top there's all sorts of WU blogs with all sorts of topics or make your own.
Highest winds
19:18:30 16.65 -11.46 10000 221 89 90
looks like center
19:22:30 16.81 -11.63 10000 331 8 15
Highest on other side
19:27:30 16.96 -11.83 10010 39 68 72

Lon must not go past 111 on matrix again
19:31:00 17.11 -11.98 10030 60 52 54
19:31:30 17.15 -11 9997 65 53 53
ok pony
The Invest page..Link
lowercal do you think it can affect texas
Skye, I think some of us (me, lol) need a little explanation of those numbers. Are the last two columns winds and gusts?
I am looking at that picture (thanks for that I can understand pictures) and it does look like it is going into Texas and then...I am not going to say it. Does anyone know the intensity that is predicted as of Thursday 5 a.m.?
Official advisory on Xavier:

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A7 issued from RSMC NADI
Oct 23/1343 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [950hPa] centre was located near 12.5
South 168.5 East at 231200 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT EIR
imagery with animation. Cyclone intensifying. Cyclone moving
south-southeast at about 5 knots but expected to curve southwest in
the next 24 hours. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre
estimated at about 80 knots, increasing to 90 knots in the next 12
hours.

Organisation generally steady but tops cooled past 6 hours.
Convective bands tightly wrapping around centre. Cloud-filled eye
re-appeared at 231033Z imagery. Outflow good in all quadrants. Some
shear still evident. Dvorak analysis based on B eye embedded in W
surround gives a DT of 5.0. MET and PT=5.0, thus
T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24hrs. SST around 29 to 30C. Cyclone moving
south-southeast under a weak northwest flow but expected to turn
southwest in the next 24 hours as a mid-level ridge to east
establishes. Global models generally agree on a west or southwest
track with further intensification for at least the next 48 hours
before weakening.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 240000 UTC near 13.2S 169.1E mov SSE 05kt with 85kt
close to centre. 24hrs valid at 241200 UTC near 13.9S 169.1E mov SSE
05kt with 95kt close to centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 250000 UTC near 14.4S 168.5E mov S 03kt with 95kt
close to centre.
48hrs valid at 251200 UTC near 15.1S 167.6E mov SSW 03kt with 95kt
close to centre.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone XAVIER
will be issued around 232000 UTC.
Link

Note: 80 kts is 10 minute mean; multiply by 1.14 to get 1 minute mean; 90 kts or 105 mph. They forecast it to become a strong Cat 3 (95 kts x 1.14 = 110 kts/125 mph).
Intensity on Thursday at 7:00 am:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/1500Z 16.5N 111.5W 95 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 17.3N 111.6W 100 KT
24HR VT 24/1200Z 19.0N 111.0W 95 KT
36HR VT 25/0000Z 21.3N 109.6W 80 KT
48HR VT 25/1200Z 23.3N 107.9W 60 KT
72HR VT 26/1200Z 27.0N 104.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
96HR VT 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
ryan and saddle, this is directly from the NHC forecast discussion

... A 72 HOUR POINT IS SHOWN SINCE THE 48 HOUR POINT IS NOT QUITE INLAND.
HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION COULD SURVIVE
A PASSAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO. ...
Time(Z), Latatude, Longitude, Altitude(ft), Dir(), Speed(mph at flight level), Gust(mph at flight level)

here's the site
Thanks Skye, and welcome back!
A couple of views of Tropical Cyclone Xavier (01P).



It should be noted that the 06z run of the GFDL (not on the 12z run) has Paul turn into an extratropical storm instead of dissipating:


Extratropical? How many E. Pac. storms do that?
Thanks guys - looks like it IS going north, north and north and Alabama probably won't even get any rain - oh well...I need the rain, but still prefer the north track.
Thanks LowerCal:)

23~ I was just about to post the rainbow of Zavier. It's about wild looking. Even though it has a nice blow up around the center the stuff to the NE has the colder tops.
hi 1990

Water vapor of Paul.
hi 23
sorry it is 1900
interesting discussion folks - Paul as a system with circulation may be unlikely to survive the mountains of Mexico, but a surge of tropical moisture/energy will keep moving forward and into the southern US. It will be interesting to see how that interacts with the huge cool airmass sitting over the center of the continent. You could see a new surface low developing and later causing issues in the northeast..
I spy, with my little eye, a pinhole eye nearby!

The sun is going down over the S. Pac, but the eye is still clearly visible.
paul could become extratropical
Invest 94P is the blob to the NW in the Xavier pics. Looks like this twinning thing might keep up in the southern 1/2 this year.
you are right 1990
Prior to the issues in the northeast, that would mean that I would get more rain...

At least it has been nice for the past two days.
can someone come to my blog
Actually, the sun is rising over Xavier; notice that the east side is lighter.
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 3:22 PM CDT on October 23, 2006.

Actually, the sun is rising over Xavier; notice that the east side is lighter.


Right, I knew that...
vortex from the center pass
Storm PAUL: Observed by AF #307
Storm #17 In Eastern Pacific Ocean
Total Flights For Storm #17: 01
Date/Time of Recon Report: October 23, 2006 19:22:00 Zulu
Position Of The Center: 16 48 ' N 111 37 ' W (16.80 N 111.62 W )
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700 Millibars: 2930 Meters (Normal: 3011 Meters)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 80 Knots (92 MPH)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured At: 017 Nautical Miles (19.55 miles) From Center At Bearing 132
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 078 Knots (89.7 MPH) From 220
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 012 Nautical Miles (13.8 Miles) From Center At Bearing 135
Minimum Pressure: 978 Millibars (28.879 Inches)
Maxium Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Outside The Eye: 23C (73.4F) / 3034 Meters
Maximum Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Inside The Eye: 18C (64.4F) / 3038 Meters
Dewpoint Temperature / Sea Surface Temperature Inside The Eye: 7C (44.6F) / NAC (NAF)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: NA
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: NA
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700 Millibars
Navigational Accuracy Measured At: 0.02 Nautical Miles
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At: 1 Nautical Miles
Soo Xavier could infact be a CAT-4?
I think it is possible.
I personally think Xavier is going to be a strong 3 at max.
Looks like I was wrong on the 112 lon thing, from where the center is. Usually ya don't see the lon go near 1 in distance in 30 seconds. Perplexed i am, any thoughts?
it cannot be possible
category 3 yes
not yet pony
With the pinhole eye that is currently there, I think it is.
soon
1900 can you post one of those pic on my blog
1900 you like posting pics
CIMSS images:



were do you get the Xavier photos besides
the NRL "I cant post any photo's from the NRL"
micheal you have a link for those pics
CIMSS; they are at the bottom of the page when you click on a storm's name.
ok
I do get my images from the NRL, but I also use Image Shack and host the images so they don't expire. I had a problem with the images on my blog until I found Image Shack.


Hmm pin hole
Actually, the sun is rising over Xavier; notice that the east side is lighter.

Right, I knew that...
lol 1900!
when i get my images frim the NRL, they usually dont expire for me
Paul's winds just fell by 20 mph on the latest advisory!
Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 3:46 PM CDT on October 23, 2006.

Actually, the sun is rising over Xavier; notice that the east side is lighter.

Right, I knew that... lol 1900!


Well I did, I just wasn't thinking straight at the time. I just got home from school...
: )
if you look back Paul has actually weakend from the 11 AM advisory to the 2 PM advisory (Eastern Time)
I think it is an ERC.
and now his winds are at 90 MPH
(ET) 11 AM-110
(ET) 2 PM-100
(ET) 5 PM-90
...PAUL WEAKENING...
To post something from NRL, right-click on the image and select Properties, then copy the URL displayed in the pop-up window. Here is an image that shows this. The images do expire after awhile, but if you don't intend to keep them, this is not a problem (it says 10 minutes, but it is usually longer, enough so that they are still there by the time new images are available).
Did you make that image MichealSTL?

Xavier has a nice eyewall
Yes; I used the Print Screen key and Paint.
Clever clever!
O.K. guys - you say weakening, but isn't it time for the "diurnal maximum"...see I DO pay attention - I learned that here. So, if Paul is weakening, he is entering into his most favored time in a few hours.
WTPZ32 KNHC 232045
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
200 PM PDT MON OCT 23 2006

...PAUL WEAKENING...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM
LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
443
WTPZ42 KNHC 232045
TCDEP2
HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006
200 PM PDT MON OCT 23 2006

BASED ON AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND RECENT DEGRADATION OF THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION...PAUL PROBABLY REACHED ITS MAXIMUM
INTENSITY EARLIER TODAY AND IS NOW WEAKENING. MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE 88 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 80 KT. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE THEIR
TOLL...AND SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE...
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE GFDL MODEL CONTINUES TO
SHOW STRENGTHENING TAKING PAUL TO A CATEGORY 3 CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...IN LIGHT OF THE CURRENT WEAKENING AND
EXPECTED INCREASE IN SHEAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE
SHIPS AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE. ONCE INLAND OVER MOUNTAINOUS
MEXICO...RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.
2:00PDT National Hurricane center track for paul.
Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
Glad to see ya paying attention saddle:)

Actually diurnal maximum happens in the overnight, when the air is cool & the water warm. Helps form condinsation, creating convection. Being time sensitive for the area, Paul is approaching diurnal minimum, when it would generally look it's worse for the day (ya got the general consept). It's about 2:45pm over there, minimum usually peaks out around 4-5pm.
Recon altitude is at 27000, so they are most likely going home.
i thought shear was gonna make paul go bye-bye
My blogs updated!
i love that "Where is Jim Davis" commercial, especially when the empty chair rolls by, donkey or elephant, ya gotta love it (note: if you dont live in Florida, you will have no clue on what im talking about)
128th!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
128th... LOL

Actually, probably more like 20th-30th, depending on how many different users posted before you.
WPB... I know what you are sating about the ad with the chair rolling thru DC... it really IS clever if a tad misleading by some accounts...
I get a laugh from it each time I see it, and I'm voting for Davis!!! Should Crist win, I can live with him as well, so am just watching the creative (?) minds at work
The CIMSS ADT is totally out of whack:



Maybe the eye is too small for it to recognize it as an eye (however, I remember that it recognized Lane as having a pinhole eye when it looked like Xavier).
Amongst the convection it looks like there's a LLCC close to 12.5N 94W RGB loop.

This area is currently under 5-10kts of shear.



Any comments?

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