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Patricia and Recent U.S. Hurricanes: What Makes a Storm “Big”?

By: Bob Henson 3:47 PM GMT on November 04, 2015

Among its many history-making attributes, Hurricane Patricia will go down as one of the least deadly Category 5 hurricanes to make landfall in the Western Hemisphere since modern records began. Only 8 direct and 5 indirect fatalities have been reported to date. Among landfalling Category 5 storms in the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific, Patricia is on par with the low death tolls of Hurricanes Dean (2007) and Anita (1977). Patricia’s minuscule size played a big role in the low death toll, and it also serves as a vivid contrast to the weaker but larger hurricanes that have struck the United States in recent years. It’s now been more than ten years since the U.S. has seen a major hurricane landfall (Category 3, 4, or 5). The last one was Wilma, which struck Florida on October 24, 2005. Still, in the decade since Wilma, the nation has incurred more than $100 billion in hurricane-related damage. Most of this was produced by two massive storms that arrived on U.S. shores below Category 3 strength: Ike (2008) and Sandy (2012).


Figure 1. Hurricane Patricia as seen from the International Space Station at midday on Friday, October 23, 2015. Image credit: Scott Kelly/NASA.


Simply put, people tend to assume that a strong hurricane is also a large one, and vice versa. When I was interviewed on the PBS NewsHour during the height of Patricia, the first question asked by William Brangham was, “How did this storm get so big so fast?” NPR’s David Greene employed the same lead-in question in his interview with researcher Kristen Corbosiero (University at Albany) following Patricia’s landfall. These are smart, solid journalists, so I have a feeling their queries reflect a much broader sense among nonspecialists that a Category 5 hurricane is inherently huge--which is certainly not the case.


Table 1. Size and strength of Wikipedia’s five most damaging hurricanes in U.S. history)--Katrina, Sandy, Andrew, Ike, and Wilma--listed in order of damages (not adjusted for inflation or changes in wealth], as well as this year’s Hurricane Patricia in Mexico. The radius of hurricane-force winds was drawn from the last NHC public advisory issued before landfall. Maximum winds are those at landfall, as analyzed in the NHC HURDAT database. Although Sandy was classified as a post-tropical cyclone just before it made landfall, subsequent analysis confirmed that hurricane-force winds did come ashore.


Lessons from Sandy and Ike
The assumption that hurricane strength is more important than size may have already taken a toll of its own. It became clear as Sandy approached the Atlantic coast that its wind field would be enormous, likely funneling a dangerous storm surge into the New York region. But media attention revolved largely around Sandy’s peak wind speeds and how much those might decrease by landfall. Likewise, Hurricane Ike’s “demotion” to Category 2 strength before landfall on the upper Texas coast may have played a big role in the comparatively tepid response to its approach. Based on dozens of post-storm interviews, Rebecca Morss and Mary Hayden (National Center for Atmospheric Research, or NCAR) concluded: “Given the storm surge and damage Ike caused, a number of interviewees did not feel that Ike’s classification on the Saffir-Simpson scale adequately communicated the risk Ike posed.”

With huge storms like Sandy and Ike, the wind field often expands as the peak winds decrease, which means that the wind-generated surge can actually continue to grow. The vast majority of U.S. damage from both Sandy and Ike was surge-related, as was the case for Katrina--yet another hurricane that produced less wind damage than feared, but more surge damage than expected.




Figure 2. Aircraft-based surface wind analyses for Hurricane Sandy (left) at 18Z (2:00 pm EDT) on October 29, 2012, and Hurricane Patricia (right) at 18Z on October 23, 2015. Both images are from roughly five hours before landfall. Although Patricia’s maximum sustained winds are more than 40 mph stronger, Sandy’s wind field is far broader, as evident in the much wider coverage of winds above tropical storm strength, or 34 knots (yellow), and 50 knots (red). Image credit: CIRA/RAMMB/CSU archives for Sandy and Patricia.


How the NHC handles hurricane size
For many decades, public advisories from the National Hurricane Center have included the radii of hurricane- and tropical-storm-force winds (65 and 34 knots, respectively). These numbers are rarely mentioned in the media, but NHC is starting to emphasize them more in their public-facing products, including the new “key messages” portion of the NHC forecast discussion. This distillation of bottom-line points earned much praise when used for the first time during Hurricane Joaquin. I asked James Franklin, the head of NHC’s Hurricane Specialist Unit, for his thoughts on the “size issue.”

“I saw lots of references to how big Patricia was, which was why we started talking about how small the area of really strong winds was in our key messages,” Franklin told me. “To me, the confusion seemed worse than normal with this particular case.”

Storm size was long omitted from hurricane data archives, in part because it can be difficult to reliably confirm the wind radii. It was only in 2004 that the NHC added hurricane size to its “best track” process, which produces a careful analysis of each landfalling hurricane archived in the center’s HURDAT database. “Although we didn’t feel fully comfortable with the accuracy of the best-track radii (and still don’t), the radii are something we forecast, and we thought that best-tracking them was an important step toward improved prediction,” said Franklin. Hurricane size is factored into the new storm-surge warning products being rolled out by NHC, as well as the wind-speed probabilities that are arguably more useful than the traditional “cone” in assessing potential impacts.



Figure 3. The narrow scope of Hurricane Patricia’s intense winds is evident in this graphic from the National Hurricane Center showing the probability of hurricane-force winds at a given point across the period from 8:00 am EDT Friday, October 23, to Wednesday, October 28. Image credit: NHC.


How researchers are tackling the problem
Only in the last decade or so have researchers paid closer attention to hurricane size, motivated in part by concerns about how tropical cyclones might change in a warming world. The widely used Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) includes only the sustained winds and duration of a given hurricane, not its size. In a 2005 paper for Nature, Kerry Emanuel (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) introduced the concept of power dissipation, which includes storm size as well as peak winds. Emanuel later developed the simpler power dissipation index (PDI), the cube of the maximum winds analyzed every six hours across a storm’s lifetime. A group led by Vasu Misra (Florida State University, FSU) developed the Track Integrated Kinetic Energy (TIKE) index, which is similar to ACE while also specifying the width of near-surface sustained winds for each quadrant of the storm.

At NCAR, a team led by Greg Holland recently developed a Cyclone Damage Potential index that incorporates storm size and peak wind strength as well as forward motion. The idea is that faster-moving hurricanes typically produce less damage overall, despite the added component to the winds on the right-hand side. The CDP represents wind, wave, and ocean current damage offshore (e.g., to drilling rigs) as well as wind and coastal surge damage onshore. NCAR coauthor James Done stresses: “The CDP does not refer to actual damage in any specific circumstance. It is intended to provide easily assessed indications of the relative damage potential for individual storms--or collections of storms--over, for example, basins and seasons.”

Table 2 (below) shows the CDP values for the storms analyzed above in Table 1. As you can see, strong winds certainly push up CDP values. Patricia comes out on top among these six storms for damage potential, despite its tiny size. Yet the storm with the second-highest CDP is Ike, whose large size and slow forward motion compensated for its relatively modest winds. Of course, the CDP only provides a single guide as to how much damage a tropical cyclone is capable of. Any actual damage depends hugely on where the cyclone makes landfall, including the topography of the coastline (which dictates the amount of surge a given storm can produce) and the amount and type of coastal development.


Table 2. Hurricanes from Table 1, with forward motion included and Cyclone Damage Potential (see above) calculated. The values shown here for forward motion were drawn from the the last NHC public advisory issued before landfall, then converted into knots as part of the CDP calculation.


For its part, NHC prefers to handle each of the major hurricane threats (wind, storm surge, and rainfall) separately, using existing, well-known scales--the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS) for wind, feet for surge, and inches for rainfall--rather than by introducing new combined scales for public consumption. “As a shorthand measure of hurricane intensity, the SSHWS has served us well,” said James Franklin in a statement released by NHC on August 28. “It quickly conveys to the media and to the public the potential wind threat posed by an approaching storm to coastal populations, through an accompanying list of impacts that can be expected with winds of the various strengths. Beyond that, the SSHWS is one of several key parameters required to predict storm surge, the threat that primarily drives the evacuation decision making of state and local emergency managers….To widely promote an alternative scale, particularly one that was similar in structure to the SSHS, would confuse the public and the media, likely confuse some in the emergency management community, and ultimately undermine our efforts to keep people safe from tropical cyclones.”


Figure 4. The Colonial Bank building in Miami, shown here on October 26, 2005, was heavily damaged by Hurricane Wilma, which caused billions of dollars of damage and left millions without power. Image credit: Carlo Allegri/Getty Images.

Major hurricane or not, awareness is critical
In a future post, we’ll come back to the topic of how newer and older scales are being used to analyze how hurricanes might evolve in our warming world. For now, it’s worth emphasizing that large hurricanes striking at less than Category 3 strength have led to anything but a “drought” in U.S. hurricane damage, despite the lack of major landfalls. Even if the Category 3 cutoff is an arbitrary value--as emphasized in a just-published study led by FSU’s Robert Hart--it has big implications for public awareness, a point made well by Angela Fritz in a recent Capital Weather Gang post. So it’s still important to spread the word that less-than-major hurricanes need to be taken seriously.

There’s also no guarantee that steering currents will continue to guide major hurricanes into the open Atlantic, as we’ve seen so many times in the last decade. According to NHC science and operations officer Chris Landsea, “There does appear to be a contribution of having a long-wave trough set up in August-October along the US Atlantic seaboard for at least a few of these ten seasons, helping to force more recurvature than normal. I would leave it open as a possibility that decadal variability related to long-wave trough patterns has contributed to this major hurricane drought.”


Figure 5. Tracks of major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3, 4, and 5) from the years 2006 through 2014. Sandy, Irene, and Ike are the only hurricanes on this map that went on to make a U.S. landfall. All three were weaker than Cat. 3 at that point, yet each one caused at least $10 billion in U.S. damage. (Not shown is 2008's Hurricane Gustav, which struck Louisiana as a Cat. 2 after weakening from high-end Cat 4 status.] Image credit: NOAA Historical Hurricane Tracks.


NCAR’s Kevin Trenberth stressed in an email: “The potential for major storms making landfall in the United States is always there.” He points to 2010 as a cautionary example, when five major Atlantic hurricanes managed to avoid the U.S. coast. Trenberth added: “I have always thought that landfall was overrated: it affects a small area right where the hurricane hits. The much more widespread effects are the heavy rainfalls that extend hundreds of miles inland.” Such was the case in 2011’s Hurricane Irene, whose downpours devastated parts of New England. Irene caused $16 billion in damage--making it America's seventh most costly hurricane, despite the fact that it hit at Category 1 strength. Even a tropical cyclone that never reaches hurricane strength can be catastrophic if it’s large and slow-moving--as with Tropical Storm Allison. Rainfall from Allison, which topped 40 inches near Houston, led to flooding that destroyed thousands of homes and caused 41 deaths.

As for Category 5 Patricia, its track happened to avoid any major population centers. Landsea cautioned against taking comfort in the United States from this close-to-best-case outcome. “Our vulnerability to hurricanes continues to worsen because of the steady to quick population growth along our coastal zones from Texas to Florida to the Carolinas to Maine. (It's also the case for our neighbors in the Caribbean and Central America.) Thus, we need to redouble our efforts in improved forecasts, long-term planning (building codes and land use zoning), and short-term planning (preparedness and evacuation efforts) to reduce our vulnerability to these extreme events.”

Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Hi Bob, great illustration you make about that the scales in hurricane are an objective way to measure and classify, but damages are correlated to vulnerability and other factors like speed of motion, and size.

In 1998 when I started to had a glance of internet access to a satellite image in Guatemala, the thing that most impressed me of Hurricane Mitch was the size, Mitch was larger just in size of the compact system that Central America, you can see the huge system near Nicaragua / Honduras border right of the Roatán Bay Island for several days almost in same position, that sure was more destructive due to size and slow motion mainly that on wind force even reached Cat 5 in that region.

Most of weather related disasters in Central America are due to rain / flash flood, rive flooding and mudslides due to accumulation and soil saturation because we have an active rainy season with 2" in/hr intensity triggered with normal tropical local conditions even daily and enhanced by high mountain terrain.

Fig1 Is the image of Mitch used in many texts to illustrate a hurricane.
Tinsley paper

That pole is skewed off to the side of Antarctica and that's were the statistically added ice has occurred. Why? Why is the warming and melting in Antarctica relegated to the western portion, which happens to be farthest away from the south EMF pole? How are the closing
downward isobars of the south magnetic field DIFFERENT than the wide horizontal isobars of a tropical storm where capacitive couplings between ionosphere and conductive ocean occur?

Let me say this, when I talked to Tinsley and asked him if he was interested in writing a paper about super cooled droplets in electrical fields in tropical storms and decarbonation from the surface low to ionize those clouds, he was not interested. I got the feeling it was TOO political for him. His work didn't include tropical storms, he said.

If I get censured not for flaming, but simply for suggesting an bio electrical complexity to these storms, so out of line with the dogma of CO2 GHG warming effect on cloud behaviors which is in vogue here, imagine the pressures that a Texas based physicist would face suggesting the TRUTH of the matter. He gets killed by both warmers and the fake skeptics.
Been meaning to ask this to everyone. Is the climate model CanSIPS on tropicaltidbits a good one because for January it shows one heck of a cold month?

Thanks Bob,

I've occasionally wondered how much effort was put into measuring a storm's overall kinetic energy. I also wonder if there will be some studies that try to extrapolate that info from older data sets. It would be neat to rank some of the biggest storms by shear power alone.
Anyone using the SSS for impact is a fool.

It is out dated, out moded, and a disaster that needs a serious relpacement.

Semper Fi'
Thanks for the update, great lunchtime read.
Also, any nut whose uses the word warmist/warmer is never gonna gain a ear here.

For some reason, Figure 5 in the original blog post is missing Hurricane Gustav '08, which was another hurricane that intensified into a major (high end category 4 in fact), but then weakened down below that intensity before making landfall in the United States (specifically Louisiana).

Thanks Bob...
Quoting 8. 1900hurricane:

For some reason, Figure 5 in the original blog post is missing Hurricane Gustav '08, which was another hurricane that intensified into a major (high end category 4 in fact), but then weakened down below that intensity before making landfall in the United States (specifically Louisiana).




Great catch! I'll note that in the caption.
Well, I'm with 1900, this entry needs a real overhaul. as well as the SSS.

COnsider Hurricane Isaac, Aug 2012.

over 2 Billion in Damages, and over 20,000 homes flooded.

So please, enough with the SSS.

It is Phools Gold.

Period.


Formed August 21, 2012
Dissipated September 3, 2012
(Extratropical on September 1)[1]
Highest winds 1-minute sustained: 80 mph (130 km/h)
Lowest pressure 965 mbar (hPa); 28.5 inHg
Fatalities 34 direct, 7 indirect
Damage $2.39 billion (2012 USD)
Areas affected Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, The Bahamas, Southeastern United States (Florida, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Alabama)
Thanks Mr. Henson for the stats and thoughts. I would simply add that each individual storm, regardless of size, is uniquely different on it's own both in terms of structure and the impacts on a populated size depending numerous factor (strength-topography-size of wind field-rain potential, etc.) and the pure luck of the draw in terms of where you are located relative to the worst impacts. A direct eyewall hit, or a hurricane spawned NW Quad tornado miles away from the eye wall, can still level your house.
Currently 86 degrees at my location with a dewpoint of 72. Forecast for the next few days calls for record highs to be tied or exceeded each day. This ridge has been pretty remarkable for FL, seems like a La Nina pattern almost.
14. JRRP
Quoting 158. Grothar:

Now don't laugh!!!!!!!!!!!




jajajajajajajajajajajajajajaja
15. JRRP
Now a little shift to left...GFS
As a footnote, TS Allison was and remains the only TS to have it's name retired.

We who live in impact prone area's,could care less about the specifics on any one storm, as it is the IMPACT that counts.

Saw a Cat 3 push a 28ft Coastal storm surge inland 7 miles once.
tropical cyclone formation alert.

India Meteorological Department
17:30 PM IST November 4 2015
========================

The well marked low pressure area over east central & neighborhood Arabian Sea persists. Associated upper air cyclonic circulation extends up to 5.8 km above mean sea level. The system would concentrate into a depression during next 24 hours.
“I have always thought that landfall was overrated:


Seems the fella from NCAR has NEVER even been in a LANDFALL to make such a egregious statement on , "Landfall".
And to go one step forward to the actual "meat" of this entry..


It's all fluff and prejudice towards a scale that needs a serious replacement.

And like Forest Gump.

"Dats all I'm gonna say about dat"
The last TC for the atlantic?
Quoting 10. BobHenson:



Great catch! I'll note that in the caption.


Louisiana thanks you.


Not the Corrected CFS.
MDR has change so much in 2 month and with a NAO.
Here is the most recent JTWC satt shot for the next coming storm in the Arabian Gulf: looking pretty good already for a "medium" .........






ABIO10 PGTW 041000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/041000Z-041800ZNOV2015//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.6N
68.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 67.9E, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. RECENT MSI SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM
WITH FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED LLCC. THIS
DISTURBANCE LIES BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA OF
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER CONSOLIDATION. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED MEDIUM AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1).//
NNNN
And the current look for the NW Caribbean wave:




Quoting 11. Patrap:

Well, I'm with 1900, this entry needs a real overhaul. as well as the SSS.

COnsider Hurricane Isaac, Aug 2012.

over 2 Billion in Damages, and over 20,000 homes flooded.

So please, enough with the SSS.

It is Phools Gold.

Period.


Formed August 21, 2012
Dissipated September 3, 2012
(Extratropical on September 1)[1]
Highest winds 1-minute sustained: 80 mph (130 km/h)
Lowest pressure 965 mbar (hPa); 28.5 inHg
Fatalities 34 direct, 7 indirect
Damage $2.39 billion (2012 USD)
Areas affected Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, The Bahamas, Southeastern United States (Florida, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Alabama)


Isaac is another excellent example of how a tropical cyclone that never reaches Cat. 3 strength can still be disastrous.
Keep looking at Levi's site for a sign of snow or other winter precip for my area...still nothing.

Oh, how nostalgic I am for winter.
A month of sustained Westerly Wind Burst during October has spurred the strongest OKW so far with this El-Nino event. As of today we have 8C anomalies growing @ a very deep depth. Sure sign we still have a bit to go before this El-Nino maxes out and now models are beginning to hint @ another spike come March or April. Not a good sign if some were wanting to see La Nina next year.

Although not la Nina the CFSv2 has a sea surface look similar to the warm enso years of 2004/2005. Could be a dangerous Hurricane Season next year if this verifies.

What is this thing in the Carribean everyone is looking at?
I can garontee no one is worried about the Nina or the Nino.


We get it every day here.
Quoting 34. FunnelVortex:

What is this thing in the Carribean everyone is looking at?


Looks like a low pressure system. But I don't think anything's gonna come out of it.
Watch The Caribbean upper low..It could work to the surface like Joaquin did.
Seems like the Atlantic is trying to give one last hurrah before the seasons ends on Nov/30.

In recent news came back from the doctors office and he said I lost 15 and half pounds this past month.I'll have to make a blog later.
Oh, I almost forgot

Thanks dok henson!
I have a feeling these storms will be the pattern for this winter, or at least for the early winter, along with warmer temperatures.

The swirl over Honduras/Nicaragua is a large upper level low that is enhancing the t-storms to the East closer to Cuba: shear and dry air is probably not going to allow any development at this point IMHO.

Quoting 39. washingtonian115:

Seems like the Atlantic is trying to give one last hurrah before the seasons ends on Nov/30.

In recent news came back from the doctors office and he said I lost 15 and half pounds this past month.I'll have to make a blog later.


15 pounds in one month? Is that even healthy?
Seems like the MDR is preparing for 2016....looks like a cauldron out there currently and can you believe it was way below average earlier this year?

44. FunnelVortex There is a way to do that without starving yourself.
Quoting 42. FunnelVortex:

I have a feeling these storms will be the pattern for this winter, or at least for the early winter, along with warmer temperatures.




The GFS has a habit of making a bunch of concentric circles in the 'too far out to reliably forecast' timeframe. I hope that one doesn't happen.
Quoting 35. Patrap:

I can garontee no one is worried about the Nina or the Nino.


We get it every day here.


Having a bad day Pat?
Thanks, Bob. Difficult task nowadays to communicate the details of a storm to media and population ...

Update on the aftermath of Chapala: One fatality now reported from Mukalla; makes it four with those in Socotra - so far:
Aid rushed to Yemen island after cyclone displaces over 40,000 - U.N.
Source: Reuters - Wed, 4 Nov 2015 11:12 GMT



Yemen Post Newspaper@YemenPostNews, 07:30 - 4. Nov. 2015
Mukalla is a GHOST CITY after powerful #Chapala Storm forced 100,000's to flee for their lives #Yemen


From Oct. 28 to Nov. 3, IMERG showed rainfall amounts

And this happened in Sweden today:
'Solar storm' grounds Swedish air traffic
The Local (Sweden), Published: 04 Nov 2015 17:01 GMT+01:00
Excerpt: "[The solar storm] has meant that we haven't been able to see the airplanes on our radar screens. We are starting to get the systems up and running again but it's unclear when everything will be back to normal," he told the Aftonbladet tabloid. ...
Quoting 15. JRRP:

Now a little shift to left...GFS



Crud.
Quoting 46. NNYer:



The GFS has a habit of making a bunch of concentric circles in the 'too far out to reliably forecast' timeframe. I hope that one doesn't happen.


And so far a few of them have come true this year.

And I wouldn't mind if this happens.
Quoting 50. FunnelVortex:



And so far a few of them have come true this year.

And I wouldn't mind if this happens.


Wasn't Joaquin Predicted early?
Quoting 51. Famoguy1234:



Wasn't Joaquin Predicted early?


The storms I am taking about are extratropical storms. Not hurricanes.
Quoting 51. Famoguy1234:



Wasn't Joaquin Predicted early?
Joaquin was never expected to happen according to the models until the storm was officially designated.Then that is when the storm was being shown as a major for the Bahamas.But a week before the storm formed the models had nada.
Quoting 52. FunnelVortex:



The storms I am taking about are extratropical storms. Not hurricanes.


I Know, but has there ever been a major hurricane to hit the US in November/December?

(If There Has Please Reply anyone)
Quoting 53. washingtonian115:

Joaquin was never expected to happen according to the models until the storm was officially designated.Then that is when the storm was being shown as a major for the Bahamas.But a week before the storm formed the models had nada.


Wow, Never Knew that.
Great post Dr. Masters! I've been tracking hurricanes for 20 years now, since 1995's Hurricane Erin affected us when I was 11. I learned quickly that recurvature of Atlantic tropical cyclones was the rule, rather than the exception. It would be interesting to look into the percentage of recurving Atlantic tropical cyclones over the past 10 years versus the previous decade, and versus the long term average. Maybe that percentage has been higher from 2006 to date? Or maybe since conditions in the Atlantic basin have been considerably less favorable (in general) for the development of strong tropical cyclones, and we have had fewer, the same percentage of fewer cyclones makes it seem like there have been more recurvatures, when, instead, there have just been fewer strong tropical cyclones, period.
Quoting 54. Famoguy1234:



I Know, but has there ever been a major hurricane to hit the US in November/December?

(If There Has Please Reply anyone)


In November there has. But never in December.
One more for the Home state and how it affected things 7 weeks later.

Hurricane Cindy, a TS that was declared and strengthened right up to landfall to a Hurricane.

Cindy, who many here called a Hurricane way before the post season upgrade, was a perfect example of going to sleep and waking up to a Hurricane.


I, like a idiot, went to bed just before the eyewall got up to nola.

When it did,it was like, Man, this is like a Hurricane'.

The whole City and Western burbs went dark for 300-400,000 people.




We were still placing tree debris in Public place from the wind damage,when K hit 7 weeks later.


Personally, if you look at my "Join" Date, I went no ads membership here for the xtra radar Frames.,,during Cindy's approach.


CIndy's impact had a direct effect on folks leaving when K approached..

As much as Dr. Masters entries here as well for K.

To this day, My sister and others still remind me, Pat, if you hadn't sent those emails with the link to wunderground's Masters entry, we may have stayed.


Words matter.

Greatly.



Quoting 8. 1900hurricane:

For some reason, Figure 5 in the original blog post is missing Hurricane Gustav '08, which was another hurricane that intensified into a major (high end category 4 in fact), but then weakened down below that intensity before making landfall in the United States (specifically Louisiana).



Some other storms were missing like Rina in 2011
Heck, a storm doesn't even have to be a hurricane of any kind to be dangerous. But in this case, rainfall is the main cause of damage and flooding deaths.
Fay, Allison,....
Quoting 57. FunnelVortex:



In November there has. But never in December.

a hurricane can happen anytime of year
all that's required is all the ingredients
but December too march is normally cane free
Quoting 62. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


a hurricane can happen anytime of year
all that's required is all the ingredients
but December too march is normally cane free


I'm not saying a storm can't happen off season. They can.

But I was just saying that so far there hasn't been a recorded major striking the US in December.
so they verified that they found the ElFaro

(the bridge is gone)

-what violence had to have taken place-

God rest their souls
Quoting 64. aquak9:

so they verified that they found the ElFaro

(the bridge is gone)

-what violence had to have taken place-

God rest their souls


The bridge got ripped off? Wow...

Are they going to recover the crew's remains or will they have to leave them down there?
Any interest in the Western Caribbean? Nice tropical wave being enhanced by an ULL. Shear is low and plenty of moisture to work with. Moving west, wouldn't be surprised if a trough of low pressure develops.
15,000 feet deep, can't exactly pick up human bodies if they can't even find the bridge

cargo containers, debris path is huge

stern in 30 foot of mud

News4Jax is my local, stories there. Remember, Jacksonville was HOME to most of those folks, including my co-workers husband.
After re-reading this, and some of the comments below, it sounds like maybe the Saffir-Simpson Scale could be improved in a manner not entirely unlike how the Fujita Scale was improved. Taking into account the width of hurricane-force winds, versus highest sustained winds, would be a much better indicator for potentially impacted areas. Looking forward to something like "Enhanced SSS".
Quoting 56. HurrMichaelOrl:

Great post Dr. Masters! I've been tracking hurricanes for 20 years now, since 1995's Hurricane Erin affected us when I was 11. I learned quickly that recurvature of Atlantic tropical cyclones was the rule, rather than the exception. It would be interesting to look into the percentage of recurving Atlantic tropical cyclones over the past 10 years versus the previous decade, and versus the long term average. Maybe that percentage has been higher from 2006 to date? Or maybe since conditions in the Atlantic basin have been considerably less favorable (in general) for the development of strong tropical cyclones, and we have had fewer, the same percentage of fewer cyclones makes it seem like there have been more recurvatures, when, instead, there have just been fewer strong tropical cyclones, period.



dr master is not even here hes off this week so if your going too thanks any one its would be Bob Henson he is filling in for dr master this week
Quoting 69. Tazmanian:




dr master is not even here hes off this week so if your going too thanks any one its would be Bob Henson he is filling in for dr master this week


Thank you Bob Henson!
Quoting 70. HurrMichaelOrl:



Thank you Bob Henson!



still need too fix post 56 too have it say Bob Henson
The El Faro is in an upright position and the stern is buried in approximately 30 feet of sediment.
Quoting 72. washingtonian115:

The El Faro is in an upright position and the stern is buried in approximately 30 feet of sediment.


How is it buried under that much sediment? Did Joaquin stir it all up or something?
Quoting 73. FunnelVortex:



How is it buried under that much sediment? Did Joaquin stir it all up or something?


Gravity... Momentum...
Excellent Post Mr. Henson.........
Quoting 3. SouthCentralTx:

Been meaning to ask this to everyone. Is the climate model CanSIPS on tropicaltidbits a good one because for January it shows one heck of a cold month?




ANYBODY? ANYBODY????
Quoting 76. ArkWeather:



ANYBODY? ANYBODY????


Yaaaayyy...cold weather!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting 39. washingtonian115:

Seems like the Atlantic is trying to give one last hurrah before the seasons ends on Nov/30.

In recent news came back from the doctors office and he said I lost 15 and half pounds this past month.I'll have to make a blog later.


I recently had a 20 pound weight drop for no apparent reason, scared the hell outa me.. they cannot find anything wrong so far, and the weight loss stopped, for again, no apparent reason.. hope all is well Washie
Quoting 76. ArkWeather:



ANYBODY? ANYBODY????


The cansips seems to be forgetting that it's an El Ninio
Quoting 79. FunnelVortex:



The cansnips seems to be forgetting that it's an El Ninio


Cansnips?
Honestly, I'll trust this one more than what the CanSips is showing.

Quoting 7. Patrap:

Also, any nut whose uses the word warmist/warmer is never gonna gain a ear here.




It's short for those who theorize that CO2 acts as a green house gas and then that has warmed the earth. The problem is that then must be supported by the theory that clouds feedback the extra heat that CO2 creates as a green house gas, because the warming must come from the difference of the added CO2 (say 400 ppm- 270 ppm) at a total of 4 watts per meter squared and THEN be interesting in relation to clouds like cirrus that trap up to TWO HUNDRED watts per meter squared. Meanwhile, CO2 is in those cirrus clouds directly as the cloud droplet was super cooled. The question then becomes when a droplet is in a field, be it alternating from the Schumann resonances or direct, how does that impact cloud microphysics. That question has been answered yes. Yet it doesn't get into this debate because people are all "charged up" by words like warmer. yes rain has CO2 in it to make it acidic
Quoting 3. SouthCentralTx:

Been meaning to ask this to everyone. Is the climate model CanSIPS on tropicaltidbits a good one because for January it shows one heck of a cold month?



Quoting 76. ArkWeather:



ANYBODY? ANYBODY????


The CanSIPS is the The Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System. It is a long term seasonal model that suffers from many of the same biases associated with the other Canadian Models. This particular frame shows temperature anomalies from a baseline and not absolute temperature. Any long range prediction model should be taken with a grain of salt.
The NWS's report on that massive, long-track wedge tornado that decimated parts of Georgia on Monday:

Miller County Georgia Tornado...

Rating: EF0
Estimated Peak Wind: 70 mph
Path Length /Statute/: 0.1 miles
Path Width /Maximum/: 50 yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0


Start Date: 11/02/2015
Start Time: 01:11 PM EST
Start Location: 1 W Enterprise Ga
Start Lat/Lon: 31.1223/-84.8391

End Date: 11/02/2015
End Time: 01:12 PM EST
End Location: 1 W Enterprise Ga
End Lat/Lon: 31.1229/-84.8376

Survey Summary:
A very brief tornado touched down near Union Church Road in
Colquitt, GA. The tornado heavily damaged a chicken coop, pulled
vinyl siding off of the house, displayed a trampoline and brought
down large tree limbs.

Imagine the horror...
Quoting 83. MichaelDoran:



It's short for those who theorize that CO2 acts as a green house gas and then that has warmed the earth. The problem is that then must be supported by the theory that clouds feedback the extra heat that CO2 creates as a green house gas, because the warming must come from the difference of the added CO2 (say 400 ppm- 270 ppm) at a total of 4 watts per meter squared and THEN be interesting in relation to clouds like cirrus that trap up to TWO HUNDRED watts per meter squared. Meanwhile, CO2 is in those cirrus clouds directly as the cloud droplet was super cooled. The question then becomes when a droplet is in a field, be it alternating from the Schumann resonances or direct, how does that impact cloud microphysics. That question has been answered yes. Yet it doesn't get into this debate because people are all "charged up" by words like warmer. yes rain has CO2 in it to make it acidic

and a hurricane has even more Co2 dissolved in its hot towers per the bates et al nature paper.
AOI developing in the Western Caribbean. Under 20 knots of shear, but will be soon under very low shear.
Eric Blake @EricBlake12 5h5 hours ago
Largest July-Oct warming of trop Atlantic on record- from cool to warmest on record in that time

Eric Blake @EricBlake12 5h5 hours ago
Surprisingly, SSTs in the tropical Atlantic (10-20N, 20-60W) were the warmest on record for October">
Quoting 78. indianrivguy:



I recently had a 20 pound weight drop for no apparent reason, scared the hell outa me.. they cannot find anything wrong so far, and the weight loss stopped, for again, no apparent reason.. hope all is well Washie
Same thing happened to my mother.She dropped 17 pounds in a month so we took her to the doctor to see if everything is well and they didn't find nothing to serious.Yes that is good to hear that your sudden weight lose isn't due to anything that is life threatening and could possibly effect your everyday life.I do 45 mutes of cardio 6 days a week.I walk mostly now to work and I ave cut out salty foods and junk/processed foods.
Quoting 83. MichaelDoran:



It's short for those who theorize that CO2 acts as a green house gas and then that has warmed the earth. The problem is that then must be supported by the theory that clouds feedback the extra heat that CO2 creates as a green house gas, because the warming must come from the difference of the added CO2 (say 400 ppm- 270 ppm) at a total of 4 watts per meter squared and THEN be interesting in relation to clouds like cirrus that trap up to TWO HUNDRED watts per meter squared. Meanwhile, CO2 is in those cirrus clouds directly as the cloud droplet was super cooled. The question then becomes when a droplet is in a field, be it alternating from the Schumann resonances or direct, how does that impact cloud microphysics. That question has been answered yes. Yet it doesn't get into this debate because people are all "charged up" by words like warmer. yes rain has CO2 in it to make it acidic


You've been pushing this same crackpot theory since at least 2005 where it gained zero traction on RealClimate. By conveniently ignoring the abundance of work in the progression of human caused global warming and climate change science by only selecting papers that are at best tangentially related to your unsupported hypothesis and despite the continued rejection of this unsupported hypothesis by every scientist you have brought it up to, you seem to have chosen this website as a new avenue to attempt to gain traction for it.

I'll give you some advice, start writing and publishing if you think it has any merit. It's going to take a lot of evidence to overturn the nearly 200 years of sound science into global warming and repeatedly posting the nonsense does nothing to advance your cause. In fact, it only makes you look extremely fringe.
Quoting 86. MichaelDoran:


and a hurricane has even more Co2 dissolved in its hot towers per the bates et al nature paper.


Yes, that paper that's never been submitted for review by the science community. Why no link? Because it's never been validated. Junk science is easily sold to the uniformed masses, but making it to the scientific process much less through it is another question all together. You struck out here awhile ago, submit it for review and let us know how it goes. If it's good science, it will be tested and stand on it's own, if not then you can focus more of your energy on things that are real.
Quoting 83. MichaelDoran:



It's short for those who theorize that CO2 acts as a green house gas and then that has warmed the earth. The problem is that then must be supported by the theory that clouds feedback the extra heat that CO2 creates as a green house gas, because the warming must come from the difference of the added CO2 (say 400 ppm- 270 ppm) at a total of 4 watts per meter squared and THEN be interesting in relation to clouds like cirrus that trap up to TWO HUNDRED watts per meter squared. Meanwhile, CO2 is in those cirrus clouds directly as the cloud droplet was super cooled. The question then becomes when a droplet is in a field, be it alternating from the Schumann resonances or direct, how does that impact cloud microphysics. That question has been answered yes. Yet it doesn't get into this debate because people are all "charged up" by words like warmer. yes rain has CO2 in it to make it acidic


I'd like to give this my vote for the most incomprehensible post of the month award. I know November's just started, but I've been on here a while, and I'm pretty confident there won't be any challengers.
Quoting 91. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

[...]

Here's another, bigger view of that area.

"For its part, NHC prefers to handle each of the major hurricane threats (wind, storm surge, and rainfall) separately, using existing, well-known scales ... "

The idea that we have to go by a scale invented over 40 years ago is dubious given how much we have learned about hurricanes since then. Forecasts are so much better.

But of course, traditions are good. They have their uses. One use of the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is to use it to help lead off blog posts with dramatic lines like "It’s now been more than ten years since the U.S. has seen a major hurricane landfall."--even though that is a patently false statement. (Quoted from the first paragraph.)

Let's face it, the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a tradition. We have a tradition of hurricane lore and Saffir-Simpson is part of it.

The longer we stick with the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale the more we can talk about things that really don't make sense.

Ike was a major hurricane. Any idiot who looks at the damage pics of Bolivar Peninsula can tell that. The damage could not have been much more complete. It seems plausible, to say the least, that some of the deaths could be attributed to the category 2 designation. Category 2 just does not convey the idea of a 15-20 foot storm surge at all. It also does not convey the length of time that a surge is present and waves on top of the surge are battering the area preventing any further evacuations. (Ike's surge arrived early.)

I won't talk about Sandy.

SSHWS was devised primarily as an index for potential damage to buildings. (Saffir was a civil engineer.) It is not an index for potential loss of life, but I wonder if that is what we really need anyway. Do we want to respond only in a way that is cost effective? That is what a scale suggests. Is it a cat 2? Okay, worry this much. Cat 3? Worry a little more. What happened to your family? Oops.

We approach a lot of environmental issues from the what's cost-effective point of view. Not to argue that point here (see this editorial for one take on it, thanks Some1Has2BtheRookie), but I'm curious why death tolls in Mexico are so low, not just for Patricia. That point came up in a previous WU flagship blog not long ago, but I have not seen an explanation beyond some hand waving.
It was stated earlier in the blog that words such as "warmest" and "warmer" would not be warranted a second look by serious bloggers =)
Quoting 86. MichaelDoran:


and a hurricane has even more Co2 dissolved in its hot towers per the bates et al nature paper.
warming up in the deep south



Quoting 90. Naga5000:



In fact, it only makes you look extremely fringe.


Of course its fringe and anyone there are real climate was after the political norm, and that's exactly why people in the peer review community are terrified to talk about it.

Let's talk about it in an common sense way.

There is ZERO about what I am about to say that is in any way complex or controversial.

Fair weather voltages are 150 volts per meter. That means lightning is putting currents up into the upper atmosphere and the circuit comes back down.

In the middle of a hurricane is an eye which for purposes here is 'fair weather'. Clouds themselves are constructed of water that has a strong 'dielectric' value so that the fair weather voltages cant come down them--but an eye, even a pin hole one, is a place were there are fair weather voltages 150 per meter or more, plus any AC fields from space.

Water is interesting because the hydrogen atoms tend to lose protons and the oxygen tends to gain electrons. That makes it weakly poler. Indeed that feature allows water to even form, for it to be sticky with itself and provides for what is called delta energy when water vaper goes to water water and again to water ice. This is 8th, maybe 11th grade science at worst.

What is being asked here is, if there is additionally ACID it the water (which rain water contains and contains even more in a hurricane hot tower), and it's involved in electrical fields, what does that mean as far as the shape of the ice that's formed, and hence the RATE at which additional water vapor molecules are added to the super cooled ice that's forming. What the research shows is the ice becomes comparatively asymmetrical. In other words, it freezes at a slower rate.

Now for those who have no idea what I am saying, in a tropical storm hot tower, it's been OBSERVED that they rapidly intensify in the presence of lightning. Most people here would say that the hot tower is causing the lightning, but what if it's the other way around, that the electrical conditions cause the lightning AND the hot tower.

Finally, and I am not going to disregard this, but theories about life don't work with a green house gas warming theory only. This was a well vetted question in the 1980s with Lovelock when the only theory to explain gaia was the green house gas theory. The problem with the green house gas theory and gaia is the feedbacks are way to SLOW. It takes 600 years for CO2 to be removed from the atmosphere once its there.

But ELECTRICAL feedbacks to carbonation would be at best essentially instantaneous (speed of electricity) or at worst seasonal rains. I have pointed out Dr. William Gray's December 2001 forecast abandoned the Western Africa rainfall factor AFTER DAMS WERE BUILT. Feedbacks are more than fast enough to put selective pressure on regional life. For instance if the trees in an area are part of an local ecology that isn't producing rain, they don't get rain and they BURN.

It burned a lot here were I live in California. Lots of big trees around here, and plenty of people who are afraid of the fringe.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
944 AM PST WED NOV 4 2015

...LOOKING AHEAD THE PATTERN STAYS DRY AND SEASONABLE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

THEN THE PATTERN LOOKS TO ALMOST REPEAT ITSELF WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF SOME SHOWERS BY SUNDAY...MAINLY FOR THE NORTH BAY. 12Z
GFS IS ALREADY IN AND SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS DIVING INTO THE
NORTH BAY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...VERY SIMILAR TO
THIS LAST MONDAY. THERE WONT BE QUITE THE SAME MOISTURE TAP BUT
EARLY INDICATIONS FOR ANOTHER MODERATE RAIN EVENT FOR THE BAY AREA
AND THE REST OF NORCAL ON MONDAY MORNING.

LOOKS LIKE A BREAK TUESDAY AND WEDS OF NEXT WEEK BUT MODELS
SHOWING A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP WITH GFS PORTENDING
MORE STORMS LATE NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND. LOOKING LIKE A GOOD START
TO THE WET SEASON AT THIS POINT.
83. MichaelDoran

Please, keep my handle out of your delusions.

Thanx,
Quoting 76. ArkWeather:



ANYBODY? ANYBODY????
Looks right. November is known for rapid changes with hemispheric weather patterns. This year will be similar to the past couple except it will happen a little later. The Nino may have something to do with that. Regardless, I would expect very stormy weather after the 15th, maybe sooner if the MJO moves out completely..
Quoting 94. yonzabam:



I'd like to give this my vote for the most incomprehensible post of the month award. I know November's just started, but I've been on here a while, and I'm pretty confident there won't be any challengers.


Sorry most of it is my attempt to summarize the green house gas theory. Fossil fuels have contributed to raise CO2 levels per measures on the HI islands from about 270 parts per million in the 1970s to today's 400 parts per million. So the difference from 1970 to today is 130 parts per million. The 400 parts per million traps heat at about 4 watts per meter. This is text book stuff and perhaps I am not a good teacher of the text book stuff. For that I apologize.

What most people teaching this, however, don't go well and what makes so called skeptics crazy is that you then have to go from the heat that is trapped and not released out to space from the green house affect of CO2, and say that it affects clouds, because clouds like cirrus clouds can trap up to 200 watts per meter squared, or fog minus 100 watts per meter squared (fog reflects heat back out into space). Getting from green house gas to clouds is the issue and what has consumed the debate.

What I am saying is there is a complexity. Another issue. Clouds ALSO are interesting because of the CO2 dissolved in them ELECTRICALLY. How rapidly they form ice in electrical fields. This then goes directly to the 200 watts per meter squared in cirrus clouds, the main heat trapping cloud in a tropical storm.
Quoting 99. MichaelDoran:




I think you missed my point entirely. I am not going to engage in unsupported assertion and hypothetical nonsense. There is a distinct route for bringing new ideas into science, rambling on the internet is not one of them. Go write and publish, but as Pat so eloquently put...

Quoting 101. Patrap:

83. MichaelDoran

Please, keep my handle out of your delusions.

Thanx,
Quoting 101. Patrap:

83. MichaelDoran

Please, keep my handle out of your delusions.

Thanx,


I was responding to your nut or delusion comment. I will defend myself to such defamatory comments.
Quoting 76. ArkWeather:



ANYBODY? ANYBODY????
I think JFM will be very cold and snowy for the southeast. That's our chances to get something coming as in winter threats. But I really thing our pattern will flip by December and start getting cold in December. GFS has been back n forth with the potential of cold and some sort of a storm middle towards end of this month
Quoting 105.


Quoting 104. Naga5000:



I think you missed my point entirely. I am not going to engage in unsupported assertion and hypothetical nonsense. There is a distinct route for bringing new ideas into science, rambling on the internet is not one of them. Go write and publish, but as Pat so eloquently put...




The idea that there is an electrical complexity to weather and climate is being published. That's why I am putting up links. There also are publications that climate rapidly changes. I will respond to defend myself against defamatory comments. It's one thing to say, this idea is crazy because x y z. It's another thing to call someone crazy or nonsensical. Honestly I think the real problem you are having is you can't refute what I and others are saying. It's started to enter the political debate. For instance, the fact that the northern hemisphere is warming faster than the southern per the MSU data. The lull the last 10 years. The expanding ice in Antarctica near the magnetic south pole. These issues are directly contrary to the green house gas theory and are wanting an explanation that exists. You just don't like it because you are invested in the green house gas theory.
109. 7544
Hello is the blob over western cuba due to fizzle or move north twards fl tia
Quoting 107. JohnLonergan:






Sagan was a warmer. Most great scientists were/are.

But he also wrote an essay on the ever luminous sun. He wrote that the sun is like any star becoming a red giant, and in so doing it's becoming more luminous to the earth. It is 25 percent more luminous than when life first began. He asked, why wasn't the earth a giant ice ball when life first appeared and why isn't it a giant gas ball now?

My answer is that the oceans have been manipulated by life and rain feedbacks by life to become more saline and hence more CONDUCTIVE. This has modulated earth temperature and kept it within a range of life.
Continued convective growth with the tropical wave in the Western Caribbean. Late season invest may be coming soon. May have a 20%/30% yellow cone later tonight.
Heartland meme # 7.

When outed as a troll of climate change, default back to the "concern troll" meme.

Gee, Huh?
Rainfall totals last 48 hours in Soo Cal. San Diego County has some very nice totals.

Quoting 108. MichaelDoran:



The idea that there is an electrical complexity to weather and climate is being published. That's why I am putting up links. There also are publications that climate rapidly changes. I will respond to defend myself against defamatory comments. It's one thing to say, this idea is crazy because x y z. It's another thing to call someone crazy or nonsensical. Honestly I think the real problem you are having is you can't refute what I and others are saying. It's started to enter the political debate. For instance, the fact that the northern hemisphere is warming faster than the southern per the MSU data. The lull the last 10 years. The expanding ice in Antarctica near the magnetic south pole. These issues are directly contrary to the green house gas theory and are wanting an explanation that exists. You just don't like it because you are invested in the green house gas theory.

No. Your theory has no scientific merit. It has not been peered reviewed, it has not been validated, it has not been published. We don't have to refute your theory. It's a blog. There are steps to take, you have not. Submit the theory and I promise you that you'll get all the refutation you want. Climate scientists, you know what they're invested in? The truth.
Mr. Henson, there is an article at SkepticalScience regarding the Hart et al paper.

Arbitrary focus on hurricane wind speed has birthed a new climate myth

Quoting 106. Accu35blog:

I think JFM will be very cold and snowy for the southeast. That's our chances to get something coming as in winter threats. But I really thing our pattern will flip by December and start getting cold in December. GFS has been back n forth with the potential of cold and some sort of a storm middle towards end of this month


I have no crackpot hypothesis to advance in regards to the upcoming winter. I know in the decades I have been here, our most snowy winters have often been during El Nino years, but weak to bordering moderate El Nino years. Stronger than that, have been rather mild (at least for those years I was aware of El Nino), but the mind tends to "select" data. Even so, the climate now, is not the same climate of the past. This can not be better illustrated than the climate records for Fayetteville Arkansas (near where I live). If you look at the 22 climatological records (i.e. hottest, coldest, highest average temp, highest annual rainfall, wettest month, etc) for Fayetteville, maintained by the Tulsa NWS, you will see that 13 of those, 60% have been set/tied 2009/2010 to present. 2011 in particular had all time record low, all time record high, snowiest winter, and wettest month. All in a six month span. Then there is much more than that, as well.

There is NOTHING stable about our climate now except whiplash. So I can't say that I believe we can follow pasted "norms" anymore. At least not here. But I was curious as to the views from the post that SouthTexas made, and that output for January.

Thanks everyone for the feedback.
Quoting 110. MichaelDoran:



Sagan was a warmer. Most great scientists were/are.

But he also wrote an essay on the ever luminous sun. He wrote that the sun is like any star becoming a red giant, and in so doing it's becoming more luminous to the earth. It is 25 percent more luminous than when life first began. He asked, why wasn't the earth a giant ice ball when life first appeared and why isn't it a giant gas ball now?

My answer is that the oceans have been manipulated by life and rain feedbacks by life to become more saline and hence more CONDUCTIVE. This has modulated earth temperature and kept it within a range of life.

Planets were very hot during the formative and early stages..Earth and the gas giants still carry this residual heat. Comets and asteroids, Volcanism, oceans, and photosynthesis played a large roll with the Earths climate in primordial times. Even when the Earth was covered with ice, heat at the ocean floor kept life flourishing there, and there was some life on land under the ice..Not surprising. Edit..I should add that radioactive materials also play a part with the heat produced here.
Quoting 109. 7544:

Hello is the blob over western cuba due to fizzle or move north twards fl tia


It depends on which way the electrical currents are going to move it.
Id go with the tesla run, or the Canadian 9volt for guidance.






However, the most interesting feature, it the one near the Northern Antilles which is being mentioned by some models



Quoting 83. MichaelDoran:



It's short for those who theorize that CO2 acts as a green house gas and then that has warmed the earth. The problem is that then must be supported by the theory that clouds feedback the extra heat that CO2 creates as a green house gas, because the warming must come from the difference of the added CO2 (say 400 ppm- 270 ppm) at a total of 4 watts per meter squared and THEN be interesting in relation to clouds like cirrus that trap up to TWO HUNDRED watts per meter squared. Meanwhile, CO2 is in those cirrus clouds directly as the cloud droplet was super cooled. The question then becomes when a droplet is in a field, be it alternating from the Schumann resonances or direct, how does that impact cloud microphysics. That question has been answered yes. Yet it doesn't get into this debate because people are all "charged up" by words like warmer. yes rain has CO2 in it to make it acidic

You seem to have missed the fact that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, and was proven to be so a long time ago. It is not a theory.
Shear is extremely favorable for the blob south of Cuba.I would be surprised if this doesnt eventually develop.I think we see a TD tomorrow afternoon.
Quoting 105. MichaelDoran:



I was responding to your nut or delusion comment. I will defend myself to such defamatory comments.
Hate to say it, but the quote Yonzabam pointed out sure was incomprehensible. Whether one wants to think about it or not, incoherent thought patterns ... well, let's just say they are not a good thing. It would be good for you personally if you are capable of better, but if you are not impaired then what should we think of your posts then? Are you posting incoherently on purpose?
from solarham.com

Attached is updated video of both the M3.7 solar flare around region 2443 and the partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) that the blast generated. So far it appears that most of the ejected plasma was directed to the south and west, however it is very possible that a portion of the shock could be directed towards Earth. More updates once updated CME tracking models become available.
All imagery courtesy of SDO and LASCO C2.


M1.9 Solar Flare (11/4/2015)
Solar Ham
Solar Ham
Quoting 117. hydrus:

Planets were very hot during the formative and early stages..Earth and the gas giants still carry this residual heat. Comets and asteroids, Volcanism, oceans, and photosynthesis played a large roll with the Earths climate in primordial times. Even when the Earth was covered with ice, heat at the ocean floor kept life flourishing there, and there was some life on land under the ice..Not surprising. Edit..I should add that radioactive materials also play a part with the heat produced here.


Add also that the moon was closer to the earth, and tides were 50 feet. Your point actually is just more support for the fact that there were a number of inputs into living space that HAD to be modulated. Otherwise without an intelligent designed response life would and to a degree did disappear. Nucleotides (an acid) got into clouds and acted BOTH as a model of climate and a feedback. The responses grew more complex over time until we came into the picture and have enough intelligence to be larger than the feedbacks than the existing solution set--life overall. That's the challenge. But understanding the intelligence of life I think you have to go to it's early programming.


Me in the background currently...
I'm going to attempt to dissect your post and ask you respond with strong sources that can be found in easily-accessible text books.

Quoting 99. MichaelDoran:



Of course its fringe and anyone there are real climate was after the political norm, and that's exactly why people in the peer review community are terrified to talk about it.

Let's talk about it in an common sense way.

There is ZERO about what I am about to say that is in any way complex or controversial.

Fair weather voltages are 150 volts per meter.
Per meter of what? Air? Measured which direction? How is the voltage created? Is there a magnetic field that induces said voltage? Multiple this 150V by the millions of meters of atmospheres and you end up with 150,000,000ish volts. That is a large electric potential field. How does it dissipate?
That means lightning is putting currents up into the upper atmosphere and the circuit comes back down.

In the middle of a hurricane is an eye which for purposes here is 'fair weather'. Clouds themselves are constructed of water that has a strong 'dielectric' value so that the fair weather voltages cant come down them--but an eye, even a pin hole one, is a place were there are fair weather voltages 150 per meter or more, plus any AC fields from space.
Why would electric fields from space be AC? Doesn't the solar wind blow only one direction? Wouldn't that therefore make any field DC?


Water is interesting because the hydrogen atoms tend to lose protons and the oxygen tends to gain electrons. That makes it weakly poler.
No it doesn't. Water is usually two hydrogen atoms and one oxygen atom. They are arranged in a shape like this ^ due to the differing electronegativity of the hydrogen and oxygen. Your original premise is wrong also, because O without the H2 is negatively charged, which means it would want to gain protons, or lose electrons. Not the other way around.
Indeed that feature allows water to even form, for it to be sticky with itself and provides for what is called delta energy
Delta means change (from one thing to another). What energy is changing?
when water vaper goes to water water and again to water ice. This is 8th, maybe 11th grade science at worst.
And which 8th/11th grade class would one learn these things?


What is being asked here is, if there is additionally ACID it the water (which rain water contains and contains even more in a hurricane hot tower), and it's involved in electrical fields, what does that mean as far as the shape of the ice that's formed, and hence the RATE at which additional water vapor molecules are added to the super cooled ice that's forming. What the research shows is the ice becomes comparatively asymmetrical. In other words, it freezes at a slower rate.
Asymmetrical means not the same, how does this make things freeze slower?


Now for those who have no idea what I am saying, in a tropical storm hot tower, it's been OBSERVED that they rapidly intensify in the presence of lightning. Most people here would say that the hot tower is causing the lightning, but what if it's the other way around, that the electrical conditions cause the lightning AND the hot tower.

Finally, and I am not going to disregard this, but theories about life don't work with a green house gas warming theory only. This was a well vetted question in the 1980s with Lovelock when the only theory to explain gaia was the green house gas theory. The problem with the green house gas theory and gaia is the feedbacks are way to SLOW. It takes 600 years for CO2 to be removed from the atmosphere once its there.

But ELECTRICAL feedbacks to carbonation would be at best essentially instantaneous (speed of electricity)
Electricity is not instantaneous, in fact, I will ask you how fast it travels in water, because you imply you know.
or at worst seasonal rains. I have pointed out Dr. William Gray's December 2001 forecast abandoned the Western Africa rainfall factor AFTER DAMS WERE BUILT. Feedbacks are more than fast enough to put selective pressure on regional life. For instance if the trees in an area are part of an local ecology that isn't producing rain, they don't get rain and they BURN.

It burned a lot here were I live in California. Lots of big trees around here, and plenty of people who are afraid of the fringe.


I am highly curious what your education background is. If you are self taught, please let us know what you studied. I read a few of your electricity posts and am utterly confused, even as a trained engineer.
The convection in the western Caribbean is a result of a divergent atmosphere in conjunction with an upper-level low over Honduras. In other words, don't expect development from it.

Quoting 125. MichaelDoran:



Add also that the moon was closer to the earth, and tides were 50 feet. Your point actually is just more support for the fact that there were a number of inputs into living space that HAD to be modulated. Otherwise without an intelligent designed response life would and to a degree did disappear. Nucleotides (an acid) got into clouds and acted BOTH as a model of climate and a feedback. The responses grew more complex over time until we came into the picture and have enough intelligence to be larger than the feedbacks than the existing solution set--life overall. That's the challenge. But understanding the intelligence of life I think you have to go to it's early programming.

I've also seen you mention repeatedly that DNA/RNA are acids. Indeed they are, by technicality. The phosphate groups are acids, which are on the outside of the structures. DNA as an actual acid (i.e. to dissolve something, or to counter a base) is laughable because it is extremely weak. Your carbonic acid (CO2 + water) is far stronger as an acid. (Note that I am not talking about strong vs weak acids, which is a different discussion altogether.)
Lots of all-time November temperature records are being set around the US today, mainly in the Upper Great Lakes and Florida. Here are a few interesting tweets from around the area:







Why do people keep falling or the bait? They know if they post something outrageous it'll get a response and then afterwards create pages and pages or arguments and back and forth banter..I thought the advise some gave were to ignore those people.
I'm Not a Politician - Though I Might be Politic
By: Dr. Ricky Rood

This is a continuation of a series preparing for The Conference of the Parties - 21 (COP21) in Paris. COP21 is the next of the annual meetings that are part of the governing body of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

In the first in the series, I started to discuss how things might be different going into COP21 than they were in 2009. I repeat them here:

In Building Momentum for COP21 (recording) the importance of the convergence of the moral, spiritual, and ethical imperatives, with scientific imperatives, and economic imperatives is an important difference from previous COPs.


Link
Quoting 119. Patrap:

Id go with the tesla run, or the Canadian 9volt for guidance.




looks pretty ominous
Quoting 122. MeteorologistTV:

Shear is extremely favorable for the blob south of Cuba.I would be surprised if this doesnt eventually develop.I think we see a TD tomorrow afternoon.


You sure about that?
Elephant Tears Over Lost Climate Cherries — House Republicans’ Most Recent Witch Hunt Targets NOAA

We live in dark times.

Dark times of rampant, media-supported climate change doubt and denial mongering. Dark times when global temperatures are hitting new all-time record highs and extreme weather and climate change related events are growing in scope, scale, and danger. Dark times when it is becoming all-too-obvious that the fossil fuel companies of the world are committed to continue burning their dangerous and heat amplifying fuels regardless of the cost or pain or devastation inflicted upon others. Inflicted on persons, communities and the very nations of this world. Dark times when public officials level unfounded and baseless attacks against the very science upon which we depend to track the dangerous and growing crisis that is human-forced warming of the globe.


Link
Quoting 132. washingtonian115:

Why do people keep falling or the bait? They know if they post something outrageous it'll get a response and then afterwards create pages and pages or arguments and back and forth banter..I thought the advise some gave were to ignore those people.


I said my peace, and moved on. I'm getting better at this. Maybe someday I'll move from curmudgeon to "friendly" even. :)
Quoting 128. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The convection in the western Caribbean is a result of a divergent atmosphere in conjunction with an upper-level low over Honduras. In other words, don't expect development from it.




Tropical wave though in mix too. Not out of the question something gets going at the surface with favorable conditions. Only convergence is under the ULL. These two features are so close to one another should be interesting to see how they play off each other. TA13, so with nothing at surface currently what would it take to get some surface action? Have to see sustained building convection to get something cooking at the surface or does no convergence equal likely nothing ever forming at surface?
Tampa hit 91 degrees today, breaking a November record.
Quoting 141. tampabaymatt:

Tampa hit 91 degrees today, breaking a November record.
Yes:

Don’t eat Dungeness crab, California health department warns

By Nanette Asimov and Paolo Lucchesi Updated 7:20 am, Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Do not — repeat, not — eat crab caught along much of the California coast until further notice. That’s the stunning message issued Tuesday by health officials just days before Saturday’s start of the recreational crab season, which may be delayed.

The California Department of Public Health is warning that potentially deadly levels of domoic acid have been found in Dungeness crab and rock crab caught along the coastline between Oregon and the southern border of Santa Barbara County. As a result, the state Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment is recommending the Dungeness season be delayed and the rock crab fishery be closed.

The Fish and Game Commission will hold an emergency public meeting at 8 a.m. Thursday in Sacramento, to be live-streamed on Cal-Span.

More >>
Quoting 142. Neapolitan:

Yes:




Orlando broke the old record from 1929 yesterday with 90. Today we tied the 1934 record with another 90. This week is uncomfortable to say the least.
Quoting 102. hydrus:

Looks right. November is known for rapid changes with hemispheric weather patterns. This year will be similar to the past couple except it will happen a little later. The Nino may have something to do with that. Regardless, I would expect very stormy weather after the 15th, maybe sooner if the MJO moves out completely..
no 15th is good early winter be on the doorstep then
Quoting 141. tampabaymatt:

Tampa hit 91 degrees today, breaking a November record.


Yep but my office temp is quite pleasant.
Quoting 141. tampabaymatt:

Tampa hit 91 degrees today, breaking a November record.




Florida Heat Wave Is Setting November Records

November may have a cold reputation in some places, but much of Florida is sweating through a heat wave that is rewriting the November record books.

This week, the following locations have already set or tied record highs for the month of November:

Tampa: 91 degrees on Nov. 4 as of 3 p.m. EDT
Daytona Beach: 90 degrees on Nov. 2
Gainesville: 91 degrees on Nov. 3 (previous record was set in the Dust Bowl of 1936)
Jacksonville: 89 degrees on both Nov. 1 and Nov. 3
Tallahassee: 88 degrees Nov. 1, then 89 degrees on Nov. 3; also tied record warmest daily low temperature of 75 degrees on Nov. 2
In Daytona Beach, 90-degree heat is typical from July through mid-August. Early November average highs, there, are in the upper 70s.

In fact, the hottest temperature anywhere in the U.S. on Nov. 3, often found in the Desert Southwest or South Texas this time of year, was at Jacksonville's Naval Air Station, soaring to 93 degrees.
Quoting 144. Naga5000:



Orlando broke the old record from 1929 yesterday with 90. Today we tied the 1934 record with another 90. This week is uncomfortable to say the least.



You know it's bad when you step out of the car or another place with ac and the glasses fog up. That's not supposed to happen in November.
Quoting 143. Xandra:

Don%u2019t eat Dungeness crab, California health department warns

By Nanette Asimov and Paolo Lucchesi Updated 7:20 am, Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Do not %u2014 repeat, not %u2014 eat crab caught along much of the California coast until further notice. That%u2019s the stunning message issued Tuesday by health officials just days before Saturday%u2019s start of the recreational crab season, which may be delayed.

The California Department of Public Health is warning that potentially deadly levels of domoic acid have been found in Dungeness crab and rock crab caught along the coastline between Oregon and the southern border of Santa Barbara County. As a result, the state Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment is recommending the Dungeness season be delayed and the rock crab fishery be closed.

The Fish and Game Commission will hold an emergency public meeting at 8 a.m. Thursday in Sacramento, to be live-streamed on Cal-Span.

More >>
well if they cant eat it can they make hats out of it and wear it on there heads
Quoting 132. washingtonian115:

Why do people keep falling or the bait? They know if they post something outrageous it'll get a response and then afterwards create pages and pages or arguments and back and forth banter..I thought the advise some gave were to ignore those people.
I could just put him on ignore, but I want to flag his posts since as you point out they do smell like troll bait. I've been flagging but apparently not enough people have. I don't want him to continue with the trolling since it degrades the blog. He seems to post whether he gets a response or not.
nw. carib. action. it seems there is alot of times the ull and tropical wave go hand in hand not only this we will be watching those waves in the atlantic later in the week.
Quoting 129. MichaelDoran:
Here you just double down on it. But at the same time don't respond to the content of what I am saying. Sometimes I will be inarticulate. But we all can be. If you want to have an intelligent conversation, even with someone you are having a difficult time understanding, focus on the words and not the person.
I did focus on the words. I pointed out that they are incoherent. [Actually yonzabam did.] I asked you what your intentions are. I am also asking people to flag your posts because you have not shown yourself to be anything other than a troll.


Just updated
Hahaha remember last week when people were trying to pat China on the back about how progressive they were in trying to stop climate change??

China burns 17% more coal annually than government reported.

An authoritarian government not being truthful?! Shocking!
Have we carefully studied the butterfly affect? With millions of butterflies flapping about, surely the electrical exchange is influencing cloud growth and electrical charges then connect to hurricanes to grow them and take CO2 out of the air. Are the butterflies the problem? Or are they the answer? AGW? No Butterflielogical Global Warming. You might ask, why do birds not contribute. The butterfly wing is a conductor while birds are not. This butterfly charge is then electrically shipped into ever building weather patterns and clouds cause the warming based on electrical butterfly charges. But, and think about this, with no butterflies, we'd have no weather. Have we seen butterflies in the Arctic? No. Because their electrical heat wing exchange (EHWE) levels are not chargeable in such climates. Why now are the butterflies so bad and the root of climate change now and not the recent past? Genetically enhanced food sources have clearly upped the butterfly electrical charge to levels never seen before. #Sarcasm#
Quoting 140. DeepSeaRising:



Tropical wave though in mix too. Not out of the question something gets going at the surface with favorable conditions. Only convergence is under the ULL. These two features are so close to one another should be interesting to see how they play off each other. TA13, so with nothing at surface currently what would it take to get some surface action? Have to see sustained building convection to get something cooking at the surface or does no convergence equal likely nothing ever forming at surface?
There is convergence from 925 mb. up to 850 mb. which would indicate a weak surface reflection, however, the system is a tropical wave interacting with an ULL. It seems that the ULL came off from a trough split from a departing cold front in the Central Atlantic on the 1st and is retrograding. I like that word for some reason.





Go here and start from Nov. 1, 2015 create 48 hour gif.
Link
Quoting 149. Bucsboltsfan:



You know it's bad when you step out of the car or another place with ac and the glasses fog up. That's not supposed to happen in November.


Just hope the contact lenses don't fog up.
Someone throws a snowball on the Senate floor to try and disprove AGW..

From a Free Republic too.

Gee'



Quoting 145. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

no 15th is good early winter be on the doorstep then
greetings Keep..Nothing will show on the models for at least another week, then some subtle but important changes should commence as cold air stuck up in the Arctic starts to bleed out, increasing the snow pack, albeit not at last years pace. After that, the AO will start heading toward negative and blocking around Greenland should present itself, with that, stronger systems along the east coast dragging cold air south.
Quoting 84. Naga5000:




The CanSIPS is the The Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System. It is a long term seasonal model that suffers from many of the same biases associated with the other Canadian Models. This particular frame shows temperature anomalies from a baseline and not absolute temperature. Any long range prediction model should be taken with a grain of salt.



So since it has some relation to the GEM, I will just throw it in the garbage.
Quoting 161. Patrap:

Someone throws a snowball on the Senate floor to try and disprove AGW..

From a Free Republic too.

Gee'






You should be mad at the constituents who voted for that knuckle head.
Quoting 164. VAbeachhurricanes:
You should be mad at the constituents who voted for that knuckle head.
Dunno. What were the turn outs like? Maybe we should be mad at the knuckleheads who did not vote.
Anything with 5-6 inches possible in areas always has me leary out here. Especially with it only being a week of 10+ inches, it's typically we either get less then expected or in the worst case more...


FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
346 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

.HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS FROM DEL RIO TO CARRIZO SPRINGS NORTHEAST
THROUGH UVALDE AND INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. GENERALLY 2-4 INCHES
OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BUT ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 6 INCHES MAY
BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL MOVE
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...AND MAY POSSIBLY MOVE INTO THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER...THE GREATER HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR WILL BE ON THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND ENDS THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.
GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS BUT
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE.
MOST OF THESE
AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE LAST FEW
WEEKS...SO RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING
MORE QUICKLY THAN WOULD USUALLY BE THE CASE.
Quoting 136. Patrap:
It's getting "that look".

Gosh how I've longed to be the one to say that!
Record of 91 degrees today in Fort Myers Fl.
Shel-dor is AFK.
Quoting 149. Bucsboltsfan:



You know it's bad when you step out of the car or another place with ac and the glasses fog up. That's not supposed to happen in November.


It's even worse when you wake up in the morning and water is condensing on the outside of your windows because dewpoints are well above the temperature inside your house.
Quoting 172. georgevandenberghe:



It's even worse when you wake up in the morning and water is condensing on the outside of your windows because dewpoints are well above the temperature inside your house.



We call dat August in NOLA.
Quoting 157. VAbeachhurricanes:

Hahaha remember last week when people were trying to pat China on the back about how progressive they were in trying to stop climate change??

China burns 17% more coal annually than government reported.

An authoritarian government not being truthful?! Shocking!


We can only go by the data we have, when new data comes along we revise our previous conclusions. It certainly didn't make the people (including myself) who were working with the data available incorrect at the time, and those who claimed different based on no data correct. In hindsight everything is clear.
Quoting 175. jlp09550:


its heading for southern gulf may end up as a 1010 low there in a couple days
Quoting 165. bappit:

Dunno. What were the turn outs like? Maybe we should be mad at the knuckleheads who did not vote.


Thank you. You inspired one additional thought to tie it all together. There is reason I am confident about methane hydrate fields, their ecology, and Patricia and the drought in California all tied to the massive new dams on the rio grande de Santiago. I could get into the lightning levels there, the ACE in the region and all of that, talk about the mechanics of clouds and CO2 and cirrus clouds in DC fields. But I am confident because methanogens are about as old of a life form as there is. And they haven't changed much. Indeed there are papers out about how they have evolved NOT to evolve much genetic complexity. The have evolved some metabolic complexity, but that's it. That's because there has been have selective pressures for them not to change, and that pressure is climate derived and makes me very confident of the impact of those two dams on that river.
Quoting 172. georgevandenberghe:



It's even worse when you wake up in the morning and water is condensing on the outside of your windows because dewpoints are well above the temperature inside your house.


We were working in a factory with no heating once and it was -6/C inside and + 4/C outside in the mid morning. We could not see out of the windows because of the amount of condensation on the Outside of the glass. inside on the window sill a glass of water was frozen solid.

Low pressure expected to form over Atlantic next week. Its position reminds me of something...
I swear I am trying to read his words- but he's an absolute nitwit!

OTOH, I did get to see two members of the Neville family this weekend in concert. Now, that was HOT.
The Pacific Ocean Becomes a Caldron

Explanations were all over the map, with theories that included climate change (or not), and El Niño.

But the answer is more complicated. The interplay of all the different kinds of warming going on in the Pacific at the moment can be difficult to sort out and, as with the recent hurricane, attributing a weather event to a single cause is unrealistic.

Gabriel Vecchi, head of the climate variations and predictability group at the geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Princeton, N.J., likened the challenge to the board game Clue.

“There’s all these suspects, and we have them all in the room right now,” he said. “The key is to go and systematically figure out who was where and when, so we can exclude people or phenomena.” Extending the metaphor, he noted that criminal suspects could work together as accomplices, and there could be a character not yet known. And, as in all mysteries, “You can have a twist ending.”


Link
Quoting 177. MichaelDoran:



Thank you. You inspired one additional thought to tie it all together. There is reason I am confident about methane hydrate fields, their ecology, and Patricia and the drought in California all tied to the massive new dams on the rio grande de Santiago. I could get into the lightning levels there, the ACE in the region and all of that, talk about the mechanics of clouds and CO2 and cirrus clouds in DC fields. But I am confident because methanogens are about as old of a life form as there is. And they haven't changed much. Indeed there are papers out about how they have evolved NOT to evolve much genetic complexity. The have evolved some metabolic complexity, but that's it. That's because there has been have selective pressures for them not to change, and that pressure is climate derived and makes me very confident of the impact of those two dams on that river.
So your research has revealed to you (and, it should be noted, only you) that both California's massive and historical drought as well as the off-the-charts strength of Hurricane Patricia are directly attributable not to the four million tons of excess heat-trapping carbon we pump into the air every hour of every day, but rather a pair of hydroelectric dams in central Mexico?

That is, er, fascinating.

So my question: why cast your pearls of scientific greatness upon the swine of an internet forum? C'mon, man; publish! Now is the time! Strike while the iron is hot! Stop posting and sit yourself in a chair and type up Doran's Grand Unified Theory Of Dam-Induced Drought And Tropical Cyclones And Lightning-Caused Climate Change And How Life Arose From Cloud-Borne Nucelotides Placed There By A Previous And More Intelligent Designer and submit it for peer review then publish it and sit back and let the fame and money pour over you!

Please?
The warm water has also been linked to unprecedented harmful algal blooms along the coasts that have rendered shellfish toxic and shut down shellfish fisheries in Washington, Oregon and California. “A single clam can have enough toxins to kill a person,” said Vera L. Trainer, the manager of the marine biotoxin program at NOAA’s Northwest Fisheries Science Center in Seattle. Officials also ordered the largest closure of the state’s Dungeness crab fishing.


“It’s really worrisome,” Dr. Trainer added. “If this is a single event that then goes away and we can forget about it down the road, it’s O.K. If it’s a window into the future, it’s not a good future.”


The Pacific Ocean Becomes a Caldron
185. MahFL
Quoting 157. VAbeachhurricanes:

Hahaha remember last week when people were trying to pat China on the back about how progressive they were in trying to stop climate change??

China burns 17% more coal annually than government reported.

An authoritarian government not being truthful?! Shocking!


Told you Chinese Politicians were corrupt...
China is like the UK was in the 50's and 60'S with lots of Smog.
Published on Dec 14, 2012
This rare footage has gone on record as the largest glacier calving event ever captured on film, by the 2016 Guiness Book of World Records.

On May 28, 2008, Adam LeWinter and Director Jeff Orlowski filmed a historic breakup at the Ilulissat Glacier in Western Greenland. The calving event lasted for 75 minutes and the glacier retreated a full mile across a calving face three miles wide. The height of the ice is about 3,000 feet, 300-400 feet above water and the rest below water.

Footage produced by James Balog (http://jamesbalog.com) and the Extreme Ice Survey (http://extremeicesurvey.org)

Chasing Ice won the award for Excellence in Cinematography at the 2012 Sundance Film Festival and a 2013 Emmy Award for Outstanding Nature Programming. It has won over 40 awards at festivals worldwide, and was also nominated for an Academy Award for Best Original Song, "Before My Time" by J. Ralph featuring Scarlett Johansson and Joshua Bell.






187. JRRP

the shear is diminishing NE carib
The Oct numbers begin trickling in, this ones Ft Collins, Colorado :

For the third month in a row, October set a handful of records for warmth in Fort Collins.

The average low temperature for October was 42.1 degrees, the warmest in the city’s 127-year record and 5.7 degrees above the 1981-2010 normal, according to numbers from Colorado State University's Fort Collins Weather Station. The average temperature of 55.2 degrees was 5 degrees above the 1981-2010 normal and ties a record set in 2003, back when “Friends” was still on TV.

Link
Quoting 185. MahFL:



Told you Chinese Politicians were corrupt...
China is like the UK was in the 50's and 60'S with lots of Smog.

They will do Anything to avoid condensation on the outside of their windows!
Quoting 186. Patrap:

Published on Dec 14, 2012
This rare footage has gone on record as the largest glacier calving event ever captured on film, by the 2016 Guiness Book of World Records.

On May 28, 2008, Adam LeWinter and Director Jeff Orlowski filmed a historic breakup at the Ilulissat Glacier in Western Greenland. The calving event lasted for 75 minutes and the glacier retreated a full mile across a calving face three miles wide. The height of the ice is about 3,000 feet, 300-400 feet above water and the rest below water.

Footage produced by James Balog (http://jamesbalog.com) and the Extreme Ice Survey (http://extremeicesurvey.org)

Chasing Ice won the award for Excellence in Cinematography at the 2012 Sundance Film Festival and a 2013 Emmy Award for Outstanding Nature Programming. It has won over 40 awards at festivals worldwide, and was also nominated for an Academy Award for Best Original Song, "Before My Time" by J. Ralph featuring Scarlett Johansson and Joshua Bell.









This is the most incredible thing I have ever seen.
Quoting 185. MahFL:



Told you Chinese Politicians were corrupt...
China is like the UK was in the 50's and 60'S with lots of Smog.


The Great Smog of 1952

A fog so thick and polluted it left thousands dead wreaked havoc on London in 1952. The smoke-like pollution was so toxic it was even reported to have choked cows to death in the fields. It was so thick it brought road, air and rail transport to a virtual standstill. This was certainly an event to remember, but not the first smog of its kind to hit the capital.

Link

Or Dick Cheney urging us to invade Iraq, and Halliburton get's all those contracts to wash toilets, and sell pizza at US bases there.
Quoting 184. ColoradoBob1:

The warm water has also been linked to unprecedented harmful algal blooms along the coasts that have rendered shellfish toxic and shut down shellfish fisheries in Washington, Oregon and California. “A single clam can have enough toxins to kill a person,” said Vera L. Trainer, the manager of the marine biotoxin program at NOAA’s Northwest Fisheries Science Center in Seattle. Officials also ordered the largest closure of the state’s Dungeness crab fishing.


“It’s really worrisome,” Dr. Trainer added. “If this is a single event that then goes away and we can forget about it down the road, it’s O.K. If it’s a window into the future, it’s not a good future.”


The Pacific Ocean Becomes a Caldron

You have got about a +5/C anomaly off the coast of Baja California and spreading northwards.
With this kind of heat about all sorts of things can go wrong.
Probably the tip of the melting iceberg for a lot of marine life not only off the west coast of north America but in all sorts of other locations as well unfortunately.

Quoting 142. Neapolitan:

Yes:


Tampa managed to squeak out one more degree before all was said and one:



And then there's this:



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form to the north of Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola late this weekend. Some slow development of
this system is possible early next week while it moves
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

I told you. :)


Quoting 195. GeoffreyWPB:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form to the north of Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola late this weekend. Some slow development of
this system is possible early next week while it moves
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent




Quoting 142. Neapolitan:

Yes:




Early MacDill AFB in south Tampa was reporting a temp of 91 with a heat index of 104.

Link


This FL heat is scary hot for this time of year...

Quoting 194. Neapolitan:

Tampa managed to squeak out one more degree before all was said and one:



And then there's this:




I think this image is justified.

Not only Florida ...
Zimbabwe: Heatwave Breaks Record
The Herald, Nov 4, 2015
Scorching heat swept across some parts of the country on Sunday and Monday, with Masvingo and West Nicholson in Matabeleland South recording extremely high temperatures that broke records set 60 years ago.
The Meteorological Services Department (MSD) revealed that temperatures recorded so far averaged between 33 and 43 degrees Celsius (= 91 an 109F) nationwide, while the highest temperatures documented in the past 60 years ranged between 35 and 41 degrees Celsius ...

What can I say rain, rain and more rain!
Quoting 197. Grothar:




same old fire, another flame,
.......as the wheel rolls on'
Quoting 198. Jedkins01:



Early MacDill AFB in south Tampa was reporting a temp of 91 with a heat index of 104.

Link


This FL heat is scary hot for this time of year...


The airmass is also very stagnant too, I think we could use a tropical storm or a hurricane to wipe out the heat. What do you think, Jed?
Quoting 191. ILwthrfan:



This is the most incredible thing I have ever seen.


Indeed, and here, we have seen all the incredible things the past 10 years.

What Ive been screaming literally and the obs show easily..is that all the Warming Long Term Modeled data...is underplaying the actuals.

Thats a species of 1 dooming a entire Planet

Us.

2015 The Year the Climate Struck Back

Quoting 191. ILwthrfan:



This is the most incredible thing I have ever seen.


It's the world's fastest glacier as well , and is also know as the Jakobshavn Glacier. Ilulissat is the name of the town closest to it. I was watching this thing 8 years ago, and wrote this :

Jakobshavn Glacier the World's Fastest, Picking-up Speed
I've always been a fan of Nova, and Robert Kurlwich, so I was watching 2 years ago when this Nova Science Now program first aired on the Jakobshavn Glacier. Kurlwich introduces the story by doing a little glacier 101 speed report. The clip is here and it's 7 min. long .
World's Fastest Glacier

In the story , they report that around the year 2000 the Jakobshavn started to pick-up speed. It went from the "normal" speed of around less than 1 foot a day to 113 feet a day in 5 years. This was widely reported then, so it's a pretty good benchmark. The program aired in July of 2005, so this morning I went looking to see what the Jakobshavn was doing 2 years later.

Sure enough, the Washington Post ran a story on June 9, 2007 about the research being done on the glacier.
And in that story we get speed report on the largest glacier in Greenland :

So, it went from 113 feet a day in 2005 to 135 a day in 2007 ..... 22 feet a day faster.
In 2 years, the Jakobshavn Glacier has increased it's speed by nearly 20%.

Here's a great NASA animation of the the glacier in action ..... Jakobshavn Glacier

Link

You want to get into Greenland studies start with the Jakobshavn, there's good evidence it's ice sank the Titanic. And there's even stronger evidence the it's grounding line melted out years ago , and that fjord goes much deeper as it heads inland . AND IT'S REALLY DEEP NOW.
So that means warm sea water is under the glacier miles inland. What's not clear at all, is what the fresh water pouring into the mulons off the ice sheet, and sea water are doing under the ice.

191. ILwthrfan:
You are right it's one of the most incredible things any of us will ever see. I think to be there would have something else, just because the sound of it would have been very, very scary.
Yemen: Cyclone Chapala Flash Update 2 | 4 November 2015
Report from UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Published on 04 Nov 2015
KEY MESSAGES
- Up to 1.1 million people affected by Cyclone Chapala in Socotra Island, Hadramaut and Shabwah governorates.
- More than 36,000 people are reported displaced and housed in public buildings or with host families.
- Medical supplies, water and sanitation kits, NFIs and tents, and high energy biscuits have been pre-positioned or are on their way to most affected areas.
- An airlift is being prepared to reach Socotra Island.

More see link above.
Soon-to-be Rick and Sandra? Almost close enough for a Fujiwhara interaction.
Quoting 206. barbamz:

Yemen: Cyclone Chapala Flash Update 2 | 4 November 2015
Report from UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Published on 04 Nov 2015
KEY MESSAGES
- Up to 1.1 million people affected by Cyclone Chapala in Socotra Island, Hadramaut and Shabwah governorates.
- More than 36,000 people are reported displaced and housed in public buildings or with host families.
- Medical supplies, water and sanitation kits, NFIs and tents, and high energy biscuits have been pre-positioned or are on their way to most affected areas.
- An airlift is being prepared to reach Socotra Island.

More see link above.



Thanx for this barbamz

Ive been following closely the web situ reporting from there.

Here is the ReliefWEB report

Key messages

Tropical Cyclone Chapala made landfall on mainland Yemen on 3 November and early reports point to substantial flooding, including in the country's fifth largest city, Mukalla.

Based on current projections the estimated number of people that may be affected by Cyclone Chapala is 1.1 million or more mainly in the two governorates of Shabwah and Hadramaut.

Initial reports suggest more than 40,000 people displaced or temporarily evacuated from coastal areas and at least 450 homes damaged or destroyed

Early reports of three deaths and 34 injuries

Humanitarians have pre-positioned stocks and have launched a response.

UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs:
To learn more about OCHA's activities, please visit http://unocha.org/.


The included pdf is much more detailed as well.
2016: the year the climate chased us around the house like a crazy old lady swinging a cast-iron skillet.

just sayin... it's on my wish list. Along with a DOW.

hey, a girl can dream....
Well, back here on my part of the earth, where DC still flows in one direction, we managed to deliver the puppy Monday to Columbus after a 12 hour drive from hell. There were five separate accidents involving 18 wheelers, with one causing me to sit for an hour on the freeway until the tow trucks pried everything apart. It rained from Alabama to the Kentucky state line. The puppy actually did quite well on the drive, sleeping most of the time. The other part of the time it was peeing and pooping but, what the heck, it's a puppy. At least it didn't throw up all over the place on top of it.

Really amazing warmth up here for November. I don't know what the record high is but it was close to 80 yesterday and today. It's the kind of weather that makes you forget that, a month from now, the first blizzard's going to hit. I did get 1.21" of rain Sunday night and into Monday before I left, so that was a pretty decent storm. Not the 2.19" predicted, but close enough. I drive back Friday, and it looks like the weather will turn bad again, with some thunderstorms and heavy rain. Maybe my rain shield will work on the way back south. Going to the Air Force Museum at Wright Patterson in the morning and, being an airplane nut, I'm really looking forward to that. The second part of the deal is we spend Friday at Berea KY for the Arts and Crafts show as payment for Karen having to look at airplanes all day tomorrow. Maybe there will be airplane quilts or something. :-)
Quoting 193. PlazaRed:


You have got about a +5/C anomaly off the coast of Baja California and spreading northwards.
With this kind of heat about all sorts of things can go wrong.
Probably the tip of the melting iceberg for a lot of marine life not only off the west coast of north America but in all sorts of other locations as well unfortunately.



An SST anomaly map typically looks more ominous than it really is. The actual SST map looks less so.


That's not to say that there isn't something unusual going on. Alarm bells go off when we see the 26 C isotherm north of Punta Eugenia with a strong southeast current up the West Coast. Really strange would be the 26 C isotherm appearing to the west.
If 95A keeps to the forecasted track.....it is going to miss most of Chapala's upwelling for the most part.


The Sea Height Anomaly is there beaucoup'..and SST's.






Looks like it might go directly over that same island.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED NOV 04 2015


CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HONDURAS THAT EXTENDS AN
AXIS NORTHWARD OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL
LOW IN PLACE AND THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W...
FAVORABLE LIFTING DYNAMICS ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 14N W OF 73W. A PORTION OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION IS
NOTED ACROSS CUBA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WEST OF
JAMAICA IN THE AREA OF MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY.
Quoting 206. barbamz:

Yemen: Cyclone Chapala Flash Update 2 | 4 November 2015
Report from UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Published on 04 Nov 2015
KEY MESSAGES
- Up to 1.1 million people affected by Cyclone Chapala in Socotra Island, Hadramaut and Shabwah governorates.
- More than 36,000 people are reported displaced and housed in public buildings or with host families.
- Medical supplies, water and sanitation kits, NFIs and tents, and high energy biscuits have been pre-positioned or are on their way to most affected areas.
- An airlift is being prepared to reach Socotra Island.

More see link above.

And the biggest part of the problem is the last sentence in that news release :

Humanitarian action is hindered by insecurity related to the on-going conflict, and because much of the affected area is in territory controlled by Al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula.

I've already seen stories of aid agencies having to remove flags of contributing countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE from food pallets to reduce "problems" in food distribution.

HWRF has 95A tracking exactly the same trail as Chapala and landfalling at the same place five days out, although a bit weaker. However ECMWF 12z sends the new kid on the block to landfall at the eastern tip of Somalia (and much weaker), and so does current GFS.
Why is the NHC ignoring the low in the Caribbean? Are development chances that low?
Quoting 211. aquak9:

2016: the year the climate chased us around the house like a crazy old lady swinging a cast-iron skillet.

just sayin... it's on my wish list. Along with a DOW.

hey, a girl can dream....

Quoting 219. sar2401:

And the biggest part of the problem is the last sentence in that news release :
Humanitarian action is hindered by insecurity related to the on-going conflict, and because much of the affected area is in territory controlled by Al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula.
I've already seen stories of aid agencies having to remove flags of contributing countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE from food pallets to reduce "problems" in food distribution.

Yeah, Sar, sure. We had quite a lot of posts about the political and war related issues in Yemen while you were away. Strange situation that the same neighboring country may send bombers and relief planes at the same time :-(
Please do not openly discuss the operational format as it matters greatly to those serving in a relief capacity.

Thanx
193. PlazaRed

You have got about a +5/C anomaly off the coast of Baja California and spreading northwards.
With this kind of heat about all sorts of things can go wrong.
Probably the tip of the melting iceberg for a lot of marine life not only off the west coast of north America but in all sorts of other locations as well unfortunately.


But not for the tiny things , the viruses, the bacteria, the algae, the fungus. There's whole universe of them that has been sleeping , waiting for a time when their temperatures come back.
Think of the reptiles, if the temperature varies by as little as 3F degrees in the nest, the eggs will be either all male, or female.

ThinkProgress today up dated the story on the death 200,000 animals in Tibet last spring in just a few days. At the same time, the sea star population off Washington was finishing it's crash.

This tinkering with our thermostat , is going to bite us in ways we never dreamed of. Because all the tiny things adapt on scale none of us has our head around. I don't care, permafrost bacteria , or viruses off the coast off Washington they in the drivers seat now.

One of the oldest stories in the western world is Pandora. And what happen when she opened that box.
Quoting 204. Patrap:



Indeed, and here, we have seen all the incredible things the past 10 years.

What Ive been screaming literally and the obs show easily..is that all the Warming Long Term Modeled data...is underplaying the actuals.

Thats a species of 1 dooming a entire Planet

Us.

2015 The Year the Climate Struck Back




Well, dooming a number of the current life forms at any rate. The planet, however, will be just fine. No matter how badly we screw up our environment (and ourselves in the process), the Earth will have plenty of time to pave over the the effects of the evolutionary cul-de-sac known as homo-sapiens. :P

227. beell
Quoting 193. PlazaRed:


You have got about a +5/C anomaly off the coast of Baja California and spreading northwards.
With this kind of heat about all sorts of things can go wrong.
Probably the tip of the melting iceberg for a lot of marine life not only off the west coast of north America but in all sorts of other locations as well unfortunately.




It looks like the crab opening in not going to happen in Northern California, because of toxins in the crabs from a algal bloom.
229. JRRP
Quoting 195. GeoffreyWPB:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form to the north of Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola late this weekend. Some slow development of
this system is possible early next week while it moves
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent


NHC seem not concerned in the Western Caribbean for development. So I'll preface this by saying, I'm likely wrong. Convection has built and now is the strongest it's been in the last eight hours. Green funktop with shear help from the ULL, this tropical wave has an impressive moisture shield and is being enhanced by the ULL for moisture. I think we need to watch this AOI for possible development.
It isn't being ignored. They have been showing this for a number of days. It does look impressive though.



Quoting 225. ColoradoBob1:

193. PlazaRed

You have got about a 5/C anomaly off the coast of Baja California and spreading northwards.
With this kind of heat about all sorts of things can go wrong.
Probably the tip of the melting iceberg for a lot of marine life not only off the west coast of north America but in all sorts of other locations as well unfortunately.


But not for the tiny things , the viruses, the bacteria, the algae, the fungus. There's whole universe of them that has been sleeping , waiting for a time when their temperatures come back.
Think of the reptiles, if the temperature varies by as little as 3F degrees in the nest, the eggs will be either all male, or female.

ThinkProgress today up dated the story on the death 200,000 animals in Tibet last spring in just a few days. At the same time, the sea star population off Washington was finishing it's crash.

This tinkering with our thermostat , is going to bite us in ways we never dreamed of. Because all the tiny things adapt on scale none of us has our head around. I don't care, permafrost bacteria , or viruses off the coast off Washington they in the drivers seat now.

One of the oldest stories in the western world is Pandora. And what happen when she opened that box.


But the last thing that flew out of that box was HOPE..

We aren't for certain dead.


I do worry a lot more about climate change, droughts, species extinctions agricultural failures and sea level rise and eventually, possible major disruption of the biosphere.. important only if you want to keep breathing. Compared with those AGW threats, weather that's a little odd seems less of concern. And I don't think it will be as obvious as hydras. It will be slow trends that we don't see till they kill us or, more likely, our grandchildren.

trolls do seem to have some of the properties of hydras though :-)

Barbamz the HWRF run for 95A isn't weaker when using the tight focus



Quoting 222. tropicofcancer:





My analog is termites eating away at the foundations of the biosphere and ignored until too late.
Florida's been having early September weather, so why not an early September type tropical system as well?

SST's are fine, but not much vorticity associated with it.

Quoting 179. Neapolitan:




Compare with the first ten days of Nov 1975 which were warmer in the middle atlantic at least.

You know you are old when you remember (imperfectly) this stuff cuz you were there when it happened.
I was just looking at Satellite and radar on the Wundermap.
There is a bit of moisture moving into central Texas from the SW, already, well ahead of that Low out to the West.
There's also a large system moving westward into the GOM it seems.
Any chance this will produce a sort of "Malachi Crunch" on Texas?
If so, what kind of rainfall totals are they going to be looking at there? - Any prediction models detailing it?
I jumped in the Chesapeake Bay in November 1975. It was so cold I screamed.
Quoting 239. WalkingInTheSun:

I was just looking at Satellite and radar on the Wundermap.
There is a bit of moisture moving into central Texas from the SW, already, well ahead of that Low out to the West.
There's also a large system moving westward into the GOM it seems.
Any chance this will produce a sort of "Malachi Crunch" on Texas?
If so, what kind of rainfall totals are they going to be looking at there?


The models have been trending wetter--early this morning the models all stayed under 2" for San Antonio. The green line with squares is the NWS forecast.



This would take Austin close to 60" for the year. Surprisingly that's not real close to the record



Dallas:

Quoting 222. tropicofcancer:





Mrs. Grothar is just thinking of Thanksgiving!


I found this, but I'm not sure what affect if any was taken into consideration for the various factors I mentioned and if things "intensify" regarding them or they all move into position simultaneously, etc.
I would hope they are looking into it all. Texas has had a lot of rain lately, and much more could cause big problems.
Quoting 232. georgevandenberghe:



But the last thing that flew out of that box was HOPE..

We aren't for certain dead.


I do worry a lot more about climate change, droughts, species extinctions agricultural failures and sea level rise and eventually, possible major disruption of the biosphere.. important only if you want to keep breathing. Compared with those AGW threats, weather that's a little odd seems less of concern. And I don't think it will be as obvious as hydras. It will be slow trends that we don't see till they kill us or, more likely, our grandchildren.

trolls do seem to have some of the properties of hydras though :-)


Makes me sad. My grandson just turned two.
Interesting loop: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpfloop_6hr_d17. html 
I think it catches onto some of that moisture coming in from the east / SE.I guess they think it'll come in later than the Low that is out west.  If not,....
246. jjmet
Quoting 242. GeoffreyWPB:



Mrs. Grothar is just thinking of Thanksgiving!

Thats funny right there.
Quoting 242. GeoffreyWPB:



Mrs. Grothar is just thinking of Thanksgiving!



I just showed her, so there... No pumpkin pie for you this year.
I know it's not being ignored Gro, just saying they're not expecting any development. When I see eight hour convection growth like this associated with a strong moisture shield, just one I keep an eye on for possible surface developments. Could be just good venting from the ULL to the SE and divergence. Sheer between the two ULL's has been squashed and this AOI is taking full advantage even currently under 20 knots of sheer. Will change into tomorrow to lower levels. Don't see why with divergence, this doesn't continue, and if so, a surface low will form if this strength convection continues for another 4-8 hours.
"This would take Austin close to 60" for the year. Surprisingly that's not real close to the record"

They don't call Central and South Texas Flood Alley for no reason. Weather history tells the tale.

http://www.floodsafety.com/texas/USGSdemo/date.ht m
Quoting 248. DeepSeaRising:

I know it's not being ignored Gro, just saying they're not expecting any development. When I see eight hour convection growth like this associated with a strong moisture shield, just one I keep an eye on for possible surface developments. Could be just good venting from the ULL to the SE and divergence. Sheer between the two ULL's has been squashed and this AOI is taking full advantage even currently under 20 knots of sheer. Will change into tomorrow to lower levels. Don't see why with divergence, this doesn't continue, and if so, a surface low will form if this strength convection continues for another 4-8 hours.



See, now you're mad at me :):) If you want, I'll declare a blob watch at 11:00 ?
Quoting 250. Grothar:




See, now you're mad at me :):) If you want, I'll declare a blob watch at 11:00 ?


Midnight central time..............just to make sure. :)
Just resumed my daily blog updates due to the new yellow circle on the NHC 5-day outlook. Discussed briefly how this disturbance is expected to form in my latest update....
Quoting 247. Grothar:




I just showed her, so there... No pumpkin pie for you this year.


You mean no Gerneten-flüken?
SCENE TYPE: Indian headdress spiral # 2



Quoting 253. GeoffreyWPB:



You mean no Gerneten-flüken?


gesundheit
Quoting 250. Grothar:




See, now you're mad at me :):) If you want, I'll declare a blob watch at 11:00 ?
Forget that, skip the blob watch, and go straight to a tropical storm and start issuing advisories for Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Yucatan Peninsula, and South Florida.
I remember the night Gustav crossed Cuba and entered the Southern GOM.

We were living in a 100 yr old 2 story Rental Uptown NOLA after 27 mths in the FEMA trailer.

Tourists recording the front of Gustav's eyewall approaching in 2008.


They hang tough until the first gust front hits them,,..then they bug out FAST.

I have this same view from about 4 miles away recorded about the same time.

It was impressive.






Quoting 226. Xyrus2000:



Well, dooming a number of the current life forms at any rate. The planet, however, will be just fine. No matter how badly we screw up our environment (and ourselves in the process), the Earth will have plenty of time to pave over the the effects of the evolutionary cul-de-sac known as homo-sapiens. :P





Quoting 248. DeepSeaRising:

I know it's not being ignored Gro, just saying they're not expecting any development. When I see eight hour convection growth like this associated with a strong moisture shield, just one I keep an eye on for possible surface developments. Could be just good venting from the ULL to the SE and divergence. Sheer between the two ULL's has been squashed and this AOI is taking full advantage even currently under 20 knots of sheer. Will change into tomorrow to lower levels. Don't see why with divergence, this doesn't continue, and if so, a surface low will form if this strength convection continues for another 4-8 hours.
Definitely sufficient TCHP with the untapped SSTs in that area ....
I'm not wanting any wx disasters in the basin, but one more OTS named storm would be very cool ....
Some of you may have missed this from this morning. It has changed since.


Gustav made landfall well south of New Orleans near Cocodrie around 6 PM and traveled northwest to a little south of Alexandria. The eye never came close to New Orleans. Those are interesting clouds though.
Quoting 259. Patrap:

Tourists recording the front of Gustav's eyewall approaching in 2008.


They hang tough until the first gust front hits them,,..then they bug out FAST.

I have this same view from about 4 miles away recorded about the same time.

It was impressive.







That doesn't look like a hurricane.
266. beell
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED NOV 04 2015

...ONE EXCEPTION TO THE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN IS THE SLOW WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER HONDURAS. DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PROVIDING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND A PORTION OF THE SE GULF S OF 25N W OF 87W...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND PENINSULA...

El Yawno

I can assure anyone that and this video I took myself Uptown NOLA at approx the same time...is Gustav's approach.


One dosent see Homes boarded up and streets deserted for a Thunderstorm.

Last I checked.







Quoting 193. PlazaRed:


You have got about a 5/C anomaly off the coast of Baja California and spreading northwards.
With this kind of heat about all sorts of things can go wrong.
Probably the tip of the melting iceberg for a lot of marine life not only off the west coast of north America but in all sorts of other locations as well unfortunately.




Been very warm water off San Diego all summer and fall.....still think like 5-10 degrees warmer than normal........maybe that vort max that came down the back side of the trof last night into South San Diego County got some of that warm water "juice" into it and set rainfall records for November 4 of 1.12" at Lindberg Field,San Diego......Official Location for San Diego weather.....El Nino......Climate Change......whatever you wanna call it, things are getting crazy! I think San Diego has set like 5-6 precipitation records since May of this year.......And if El Nino effects do materialize.......WATCH OUT!
Mountains of Soo Cal usually have enhanced rainfall totals during storms due to orographic lifting. In this last storm the last 2 days not as much but still generally higher except where that vort max came through in the bottom of the trof across Southern and central San Diego County. It seemed the island effect showers trained thunderstorms over land as they came in from coastal waters.....and had mucho lightning.......it's gonna be a fun winter....I hope!

Quoting 263. Grothar:

Some of you may have missed this from this morning. It has changed since.





LOL.......Nice!
Quoting 266. beell:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED NOV 04 2015

...ONE EXCEPTION TO THE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN IS THE SLOW WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER HONDURAS. DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PROVIDING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND A PORTION OF THE SE GULF S OF 25N W OF 87W...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND PENINSULA...

El Yawno




Convection has increased all day, still maintaining, though signs of waning are evident. This is a system that could surprise. Looking through the night and morning to see if this wanes or develops a surface low. El Yawno perhaps.
273. beell
Quoting 272. DeepSeaRising:



Convection has increased all day, still maintaining, though signs of waning are evident. This is a system that could surprise. Looking through the night and morning to see if this wanes or develops a surface low. El Yawno perhaps.


Not sure if there would be much to see with just the upper low or just the wave. But they are traveling in tandem towards the west-if you're the optimistic type!
California's trof from yesterday is now over Arizona,Utah and Nevada, headed east to chat with other parts of the country. Looks to have formed a closed low from the vort max.

Quoting 258. Patrap:

I remember the night Gustav crossed Cuba and entered the Southern GOM.

We were living in a 100 yr old 2 story Rental Uptown NOLA after 27 mths in the FEMA trailer.




FEMA trailers not much. Sorry you had to do that Pat. But would guess it beats sleeping under a tree and a thunderstorm comes. I guess that would be the only good thing about a FEMA trailer.....you might stay dry. God Bless!
The HRRR is hitting the hard stuff yet again around sunrise for the SE Balconies. It would be a big deal if it verifies.

XX/AOI/XX
211. aquak9
12:06 AM GMT on November 05, 2015

2016: the year the climate chased us around the house like a crazy old lady swinging a cast-iron skillet.

Make that a dead cat , I'm on board .
Quoting 281. ColoradoBob1:

211. aquak9
12:06 AM GMT on November 05, 2015

2016: the year the climate chased us around the house like a crazy old lady swinging a cast-iron skillet.

Make that a dead cat , I'm on board .


The crazy old lady skillets come later, Now it's just cats, weight till the skillet comes.
283. vis0

Quoting 39. washingtonian115:

Seems like the Atlantic is trying to give one last hurrah before the seasons ends on Nov/30.

In recent news came back from the doctors office and he said I lost 15 and half pounds this past month.I'll have to make a blog later.
i think i found it
Looking pretty impressive for a Twave in the WCar in an El Nino year ....



This is about as active as the Caribbean basin has looked all season .... just proof, imo, that there is the usual margin of possibility one normally sees in that vicinity during the last few weeks of the season .... If everything keeps going west we may see yet another EPac storm ....
Quoting 280. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:





If there's one thing that really sucks here is this kind of post. We are expected to know what this is. No comment, no context, just an image,

This lazy posting really sinks.

Come on tell me something, about every image. Just posting them really sinks.
Quoting 277. 1900hurricane:

The HRRR is hitting the hard stuff yet again around sunrise for the SE Balconies. It would be a big deal if it verifies.




No doubt, local met that told people last week that the flooding could be serious is being serious about tomorrow morning and it's just becoming very concerning. I'm not worried about me getting flooded, i'll never get flooded where I am. However not far from me is the Canyon Lake Dam where they are releasing water about 6k cfs and the river is elevated. Why on earth are they still releasing this much water right now is beyond me. I just hope that where ever these storms tonight line up that people are prepared because these events are just so unpredictable.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
DEPRESSION ARB05-2015
5:30 AM IST November 5 2015
=============================

At 0:00 AM UTC, A Depression has formed over east central Arabian Sea and lays centered over east central Arabian Sea near 14.1N 66.0E, about 920 km southwest of Mumbai and 1310 km east southeast of Salalah (Oman).

It would move west northwestwards and intensify into a deep depression during next 24 hours.

According to satellite imagery, intensity is T1.5. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection over Arabian Sea lie between 12.0N to 17.5N 63.0E to 69.5E. Minimum cloud top temperature is -81C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The central pressure of the depression is 1006 hPa.

Additional Information
=======================
The associated convection has increased in past 12 hours with increase in organization and depth. The winds are higher over the northeastern sector. The sea surface temperature around the system center is 29C. The ocean thermal energy is about 60-80 kj/cm2 around system center and is less than 50 kj/cm2 over northern parts of west central Arabian Sea adjacent to Oman and Yemen coast. The vertical wind shear is about 5-10 knots (low) around the system center. The low level relative vorticity and convergence have increased during past 12 hours. There is favorable poleward and westward outflow in association with the anti-cyclonic circulation lying to the northeast of the system center. The upper tropospheric ridge at 200 HPA level runs along 16.0N. Most of the numerical weather prediction models are suggesting gradual intensification of the system leading to formation of deep depression during next 24 hours. Dynamical statistical models also suggest the gradual intensification of the system. Considering the movement, most of the models are unanimous about northwestward/west northwestward movement.
Quoting 265. Gearsts:

That doesn't look like a hurricane.


It's a toricane
Quoting 267. Patrap:

I can assure anyone that and this video I took myself Uptown NOLA at approx the same time...is Gustav's approach.


One dosent see Homes boarded up and streets deserted for a Thunderstorm.

Last I checked.










I don't know why people would find this not to be attributed right, I've seen tropical cyclone bands look like this often just from personal experience. Obviously they become less pronounced in the CDO due to thick rain and over cast every where, but when there are breaks in between, stronger bands can kick up one heck of an outflow boundary to look at.
NHC missing this one. ULL to the SE is feeding inflow and ULL to the SW is providing venting. This AOI is likely now to be 40/60 by morning if this convection continues. Just my opinion.
hey COLORADOBOB-

the mods don't get paid.
Quoting 278. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

XX/AOI/XX



Twisting and uh turning?
Quoting 291. ColoradoBob1:



l went and looked again. Just a lazy image. If I get banded for 72 hours , you people better step up. Come on , just posting random crap is not far from calling someone a jackass.

The great thing is all you mods work for IBM now. And they will fire you without a thought. Just like News Corp just fired most of the fact checkers at National Geographic.


ay dios mio

A simple "what does this mean?" would've worked. Go to bed before you pop a blood vessel.
ColoradoBob1:br /


Link

some days searching through the url image for information is just something you have to do by yourself.
296. beell
Quoting 289. Jedkins01:



I don't know why people would find this not to be attributed right, I've seen tropical cyclone bands look like this often just from personal experience. Obviously they become less pronounced in the CDO due to thick rain and over cast every where, but when there are breaks in between, stronger bands can kick up one heck of an outflow boundary to look at.


All true-but it is still not the eye wall of Gustav.
You would have to read back just a bit.
Good night
Quoting 138. ColoradoBob1:

Elephant Tears Over Lost Climate Cherries — House Republicans’ Most Recent Witch Hunt Targets NOAA

We live in dark times.

Dark times of rampant, media-supported climate change doubt and denial mongering. Dark times when global temperatures are hitting new all-time record highs and extreme weather and climate change related events are growing in scope, scale, and danger. Dark times when it is becoming all-too-obvious that the fossil fuel companies of the world are committed to continue burning their dangerous and heat amplifying fuels regardless of the cost or pain or devastation inflicted upon others. Inflicted on persons, communities and the very nations of this world. Dark times when public officials level unfounded and baseless attacks against the very science upon which we depend to track the dangerous and growing crisis that is human-forced warming of the globe.


Link


Lot's of things to look forward? to if the Republicans have control of the Presidency, Senate and House of Representatives? Scientific De-funding, EPA Abolished, Department of Energy Abolished, Department of Education Abolished........Probably should make a list of which agencys would survive? A lot of folks think this would be good? Dark Days? I think much much worse than dark days........VERY SCARY! The earth is 6000 years and evolution has and never will continue to occur........Dark days indeed!
Quoting 285. ColoradoBob1:




If there's one thing that really sucks here is this kind of post. We are expected to know what this is. No comment, no context, just an image,

This lazy posting really sinks.

Come on tell me something, about every image. Just posting them really sinks.



I will agree that posts with just an image would be made a lot more interesting if there was some text to explain what we're looking at and/or the reason it's being posted to begin with.

I wouldn't necessarily call it lazy, as they went through the trouble of posting it, but the poster does squander the chance of interesting others with whatever topic it was.
Quoting 297. Patrap:




Linc, Julie and Pete............2 Thumbs Up!!
Thought I might have got booted........maybe I did.........LOL
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION ARB05-2015
8:30 AM IST November 5 2015
=============================

At 3:00 AM UTC, The Depression over east central Arabian Sea moved westward at a speed of 14 km/h and now lays centered near 14.1N 65.6E, about 950 km southwest of Mumbai (43003) and 1280 km east southeast of Salalah (41316), Oman.

It would move westwards and intensify into a Deep Depression during next 24 hours.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots.


CMC model really shows a strong cyclone near Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu coasts later this weekend.

ARB05 forecast by this CMC model to head towards Socotra Island (Yemen) and Somalia.
I can't see post's #291, #298?, #302? Where did they go? I have show all selected in filters?
Quoting 306. HurricaneHunterJoe:

I can't see post's #291, #298?, #302? Where did they go? I have show all selected in filters?


I believe ColoradoBob was put in Time Out.
Morning everybody, its happy bonfire night day 5th of November in the UK, where effigies of the terrorist Guy Fawkes are burned in towns on bonfires.
Meanwhile I see that TC5 has appeared on the scene in the Indian ocean, heading about the same way as TC4 did.

Oh, Yemen, what more to come?

Yemen, Slammed by Cyclone Chapala, Faces Locust Plague Risk for Months
Published Nov 3 2015 08:00 PM EST, weather.com
As if suffering from years of armed conflict and its strongest tropical cyclone in living memory weren't enough, Yemen may be facing another daunting problem in the months ahead: locusts.
It's no joke. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, in its routine monthly Desert Locust Bulletin issued Tuesday, said heavy rains from Cyclone Chapala "are likely to result in favourable ecological conditions" for the growth of desert locusts in the central part of the country. The bulletin warned those conditions "could last well into next spring." ...


ECMWF 00z still isn't that wild with TC 5 (other than HWRF which develops a monster) - but already develops another tropical low in the Arabian Sea behind it, dooh.





Iona Craig @ionacraig 8:00 AM - 5 Nov 2015
Shabwa in the wake of #Chapala. Homes
and vehicles lost to the mud. via @n9m3ss0uth3rn pic.twitter.com/4DpxxKjKoz
314. vis0

Quoting 122. MeteorologistTV:

Shear is extremely favorable for the blob south of Cuba.I would be surprised if this doesnt eventually develop.I think we see a TD tomorrow afternoon.
shrt rply:: i agree, If a LOW or quasi-blob forms near central GoMx i think TD to Ts forms. This is due IN PART i think to that quasi-blob fending off , engaging the long stream sheer and turning it  into short stream sheer (if i may call it, digitizing the sheer) and that digitized sheer is actually beneficial in giving a TD a few quick turns if it passes by the TD 's out AOI. Think of it as if one tries to spin a basketball on ones figner. If with the other hand you slightly slide it by the basketball (like digitized sheer, moving at spurts slightly by the TD) it reinforces the ball's spin without knocking it out of "whack", On the other hand (wait 3 hands???) one keeps the 2nd hand on the spinning ball to long or too strong of a touch (as long sheer) odds are you won't be able to play for the Harlem Globetrotters nor Globe's TropicalStormers.



Looong reply:: (sar2401 & those that have difficulty reading my weird explanation, ITS BATHROOM BREAK TIME, come back and scroll 20% down)

The VIDs i link below may have my crappy Galacsics explanations attached/text-overlay, my apology.

i was hoping to create VIDs this year (2014+2015) where i'd use youtube's ability to superimpose Text (overlays/CC) so those that can't stand my text could just turn it off and observe the satellite imagery only. Had so much trouble with my Internet line (cut 3 times by cable companies "trying" to install their high speed lines, that i could not take advantage of youtube's overlay choices.

When viewing these VIDs you'll see text explaining how what i call "Galacsics" via the ml-d influenced certain TS.
Now since there might be 1 or 2 new members reading this here a bit of an explanation. (INOPERATIVE word is "bit")

REMEMBER i NEVER SAY ITS GALACSICS OR ml-d causes 100% of what you see within or near the ml-d AOI (Area Of Influence).
Whatever the ml-d does IT HAS TO GO THROUGH THE LAWS OF PHYSICS TO MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE, therefore there HAS TO BE A PHYSICAL REASON/CONNECTION THAT DANNY REACTED AS IT DID.
What i say is that as certain LOWS/Fronts moving under the ml-d's AOI have to follow a certain ml-d influenced pattern and depending on how these fronts/LOWS are moving under that ml-d AOI be it that the LOWS/FRONTs are heading towards the zip 10016 AREA or not and what weather is occurring in that 10016 AREA via all bio-spheres, will create a equal & opposite reaction as to all 3 dimension's interacting energies, capeech?

Usually the Laws of Galacsics only sends out "weather Triggers" that act as if the main on/off/ switch of all physical oscillations within the physical dimension that one day will be observed through studying what Quantum mechanics...

(no Dakster Quantum is not not the puree/pulse switch but that is the pause switch)

...as Qauntum carries at first as to desired initial energy that eventually leads to the conjoined waves which is what i see recently being observed by NASA and a gentleman whom has the private wxcompany that does not allow the sharing of its model runs nor imagery w/exclusive forecasts mainly for companies, forgot both name & Wc Company???oh well. In the ml-d taping into Galacsics constantly, that trigger becomes an always ON oscillation-like feature hence Nature replies with the physical oscillating and seemingly self replenishing "RRR"s and on the opposite of the RRRs as in opposite to zip code 10016 area of the planet (centered ~SW of Australia) you see the opposite of whatever the RRRs are i think i called it the TTTs as in Tough Tenacious??? Troughs ??? (no not Tenactin®, Dakster). Over SW Australia is a constant HIGH but TTTs more than not every 11 yr periods near Madagascar, Australia's northern Bay, South of Australia near Antarctica and towards the middle of no-where East of Australia e.g. south Pacific you see those TTTs that with the "help" of course of aGW in the form of warmer SSTs assist in raising the odds to the develope TS or longer lasting, suddenly building, more abundant or some combo of these choices as to spinning LOWs.

AS TO simple PHYSICS::

As with a few of the TS that developed this year, they need to have a front runner to the oncoming sheer's side as a LOW trying to spin that will keep the straight looong ENSO accentuated sheer occupied

2015 Danny TO ME really had the next TS storm, i say was the real Erika, a tight spinning Low but vigorous spin behind (East of) BIG Danny.
IF we had more money spent to really watch the entire ATL closely i think the micro spin East of Danny at ~35w Longitude would have been classified as a TS @60mph, but for better or worse we can only REALLY watch storms that man's present very good knowledge, once that technology hints its heading towards inhabited areas. So, right behind 2015 DANNY,
was that micro spin to DANNYs east and as sheer began to affect BIG DANNY the tiny yet vigorous LOW entered the discomBLOBulated by sheer Danny, entering via Danny's NE quad and you see then Danny turns into a tinier, tight spin that looks to my untrained eyes to be a serious cat2 maybe cat3 Hurricane.
Sadly 2015 Joaquin was a TO ME another example of this TS build in ATL during El Nino years when sheer is blocked and another LOW is near by, as the ENSO sheer was taken into a (~Troff/ULL) LOW over the Carolinas and was what really attracted the moisture that as time went on to look, as WxU member stated "like a Fire Hose onto the SE USofA". As that sheer was broken up or slightly bent/recurved in going near the ULL over the Carolinas that and a few other "just wrongfully right" things allowed Joaquin to bomb out/develope in a super fast manner. Here a VID of JOAQUIN pre-TS (lightning) to when it begins to head towards the North:: https://youtu.be/a6D9Q0-qOVA please pay close attention to how sheer in lengthy clouds showing the sheers interaction at several cloud levels are strung out eastward-ly past the Florida keys. Watch as those strands diminish before Joaquin blows up, yet notice to the East of JOAQUIN the previous TS (2015 IDA ???) is having one doozy of a time interacting with loong sheer, as there is no OTHER low near by to do as the ULL did for JOAQUIN, that is interfere/bend the sheer. Why in a zilly animation i created a football play-like drawing and threw a yellow (penalty flag) 'cause washi115 called JOAQUIN a name ( :-) ) so i created a penalty on that but threw the flag not towards washi115 but on the ULL for an interference run as to sheer...yup thought JOAQUIN was heading towards NYC

As to why did it not head to NY/LI, physics of course but i think hydrus might be interested in looking at long & short IR of JOAQUIN (EASTERN USofA SEABOARD) as JOAQUIN heads Northward/NNE three times static fills the sat imagery and each time its over JOAQUIN (look closely at static shape see the more circular/dot structure nearer to JOAQUIN while static/dashes on the image further away is more linear. Now that could be that the lens was focus more on JOAQUIN as GOES EAST is centered over that area, but that anomaly feature continued up north where JOAQUIN was). Also the last of the three (3 1/2) staticized images was the only static to appear on even WV and/or visible imagery µm and that to me is the suspicious part for an imagery anomaly to appear on different micron levels. Hmm could it be there was practice on JOAQUIN to see if it could be "influenced" , I'VE NEVER SEEN STATIC FOLLOW A TS on MORE THAN 1 different micron here it was 2 different sat type pickup and on 1 or even 2 of 3 frames. Here a VID of JOAQUIN (up by 7AM Nov 05 2015) https://youtu.be/uWUnR4_PiyM notice the pinkish rectangle within the time stamp, that is my pink marking as to images that have dashed lines on them. The last static like lines are when you see a few lines in a 2nd frame hence the half in 3 and a half. That 3rd plus frame(s) was when the lines appeared on 2 or 3 other micron level sat imagery. Each time one see these lines IF MY THEORY where correct in that it might be a form of weather control, i think the the "energy used" causes a disconnect as to the LOWs tri-levels (self, soul-spirit ) BUT NOT AS A BEING but as following the Laws of physics, Laws of quantum mechanics & Laws of Galacsics. The main affect is to disconnect a LOW from Galacsics if one wants the TS to turn EAST as Laws of Physics as Coriolis then dominates and storm takes an easterly turn AS TO THIS PARTICULAR AREA, plus a bonus is the "introduced energy" dries up moisture (that's more like haarp) and dry air has a better opportunity to entrain itself. If you watch every time the dashed lines appear JOAQUIN goes more easterly and dry air entrain. Watch as after each of the the first 2 dashed line frames JOAQUIN seems to recoup (if i may use that human like connection) and head back N/NNE, JOAQUIN even seems to regain a healthy Hurricane form and even seems to be heading NNW at one pint. The 2nd zap IF THAT was what it was waited just so JOAQUIN does not head into Bermuda and last zap assures not into Nova Scotia. But there is no proof only me with my ml-d and photomat® scratches on the satellite imagery....NASA use better darkroom tongs and don't take the image out of the fixer too soon.

Use these VIDs/AniGifs for reference:: (all hosted by imgbox, as to the lengthier youtube VID versions of these dates some are unlisted or now private and knowing this is not of much importance to WxU readers i figured not to go through the hassle of searching for each VID. The following show that there was another micro LOW trying to form directly to the EAST of 2015 DANNY.

Here a green arrow tries to point out the separate micro LOW behind to-be 2015 DANNY:: http://i.imgbox.com/X4SzNmux.gif
As 2015 DANNY becomes big, sheer interacts with more of it then larger "surfaces":: http://i.imgbox.com/pqkOL1gX.gif
Next aniGif i Named "Tropical Conga" Lines as it seems like warmer SSTs are creating a northern version of the ITCZ, there where some bad frames so i added more to create the conga line dance motion, DANNY is coming into the public servers of goes-east. http://i.imgbox.com/sy1SRabb.gif
Finally At the start of this CLIP FIRST FRAME see the small separate roundish red blob ENE, behind dominant Danny's red blob, thats the micro TS i thought took advantage of DANNY being too big thus sheered and in the outflow of DANNY interacting with the sheer it broke down the long sheer streams into manageable pieces for the micro LOW behind DANNY to go under DANNY already formed outflow and couple by that sheer creating a dominant flow to regulate the different speeds of DANNY and micro LOW into one similar speed, thus reconfiguring DANNY into a dimensionally small Hurricane.http://i.imgbox.com/10ITZeDQ.gif


Now if this week Nov5,-8ish 2015 the Caribbean LOW has to its west (Yucatan-Campech-GoMx) another quasi Low that makes the strong sheer play on itself therefore as that straight sheer is bent before the N Caribbean area then instead of long straight duration-al sheer its shorter weaker sheer so a TS just building up from a TD can actually use it (the now digitized sheer) to add umph to its diet of low Caribb-ean sheer with plenty of high SST.

Hope it does not affect any people with dangerous weather if it does build up.

OH BY THE WAY cmmt#94. yonzabam on this blogbyte, YOU ARE 110% wrong, i win. This comment of mine kicks the assumptions of MichaelDoran first comment of this blog into the gray lining of MichaelDoran's atmospheric explanations as in trying to put aGW as not being that important or not as important as all other reasons combined. MichaelDoran the trouble is if you where 100% correct notice you have to fit together so many things to do what just aGW is doing and proven for at least 3 generations (~90yrs) therefore aGW has more weight in tipping the scales, plus there are more reasons one can notice by reading how this planet's atmosphere "works"...hey i might lose as the most incomprehensible, but only 'cause i include links & pictures.


Back to regular breathing, removing that frown while reading this stuff and to observing weather.
Sure looks like an Alien Storm.
Quoting 263. Grothar:

Some of you may have missed this from this morning. It has changed since.




Sure Looks like an Alien Storm!
317. MahFL
Quoting 290. DeepSeaRising:

NHC missing this one. ULL to the SE is feeding inflow and ULL to the SW is providing venting. This AOI is likely now to be 40/60 by morning if this convection continues. Just my opinion.


The NHC do not miss things.
Did I already mention that the last nine months were extremely dry in many parts of Germany? ;-) Sure I did. Levels in most rivers like Rhine are very, very low - and today news came out of Bavaria that some villages in the southeast (like parts of Philippsreut), dependent on their own wells, already ran dry and have to be supplied with fresh water by tank trucks. Rare occurrence in Germany!




Drought monitor: Current index of soil moisture in Germany to a depth of 1.8 meters. Source with more pics of the development this year.
Good Morning Folks. Nothing has changed from yesterday in terms of the area below the Yucatan now moving towards the E-Pac. An upper level low over that region that is feeding the baroclinic convection off to the NE around Cuba and no low level circulation (and with moderate shear). Development is not likely but will be interesting to see what happens with that energy downstream in the E-Pac.

The good news for the Lesser Antilles is that the wave held together and is bringing them some much needed rain.






yellow.X...n.w/carib.

TC5. Source. BBL.
Quoting 232. georgevandenberghe:



But the last thing that flew out of that box was HOPE..

We aren't for certain dead.


I do worry a lot more about climate change, droughts, species extinctions agricultural failures and sea level rise and eventually, possible major disruption of the biosphere.. important only if you want to keep breathing. Compared with those AGW threats, weather that's a little odd seems less of concern. And I don't think it will be as obvious as hydras. It will be slow trends that we don't see till they kill us or, more likely, our grandchildren.

trolls do seem to have some of the properties of hydras though :-)

Nothing a little gas can't fix.
Quoting 235. georgevandenberghe:



My analog is termites eating away at the foundations of the biosphere and ignored until too late.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a broad
low pressure area, associated with a tropical wave, has formed over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This system is expected to move
west-northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula into the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Some slow development
is possible during the couple of days. After that time, the low is
expected to encounter a cold front, which would make additional
development unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

An area of low pressure could form near or to the north of Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola late this weekend. Some slow development of
this system is possible early next week while it moves
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Quoting 323. NativeSun:


I know George, and what do exterminators use on termites, usually a gas to kill them, or in some of the newer treatments in a liquid form.
These potential late season storms are usually hit or miss; conditions have to be very favorable, within a short-term time frame, to allow potential development. Sheer is currently pretty high North of PR and Hispanola so we will have to see how that looks in several days and whether there is a viable disturbance in the area at that time:

Quoting 318. barbamz:

Did I already mention that the last nine months were extremely dry in many parts of Germany? ;-) Sure I did. Levels in most rivers like Rhine are very, very low - and today news came out of Bavaria that some villages in the southeast (like parts of Philippsreut), dependent on their own wells, already ran dry and have to be supplied with fresh water by tank trucks. Rare occurrence in Germany!




Drought monitor: Current index of soil moisture in Germany to a depth of 1.8 meters. Source with more pics of the development this year.


We have had dry periods in the usually well watered Middle Atlantic region of the U.S. where wells go dry. Some of our rural small towns and agricultural regions have residences serviced by wells. Don't know about the midwest or south.
Quoting 328. georgevandenberghe:



We have had dry periods in the usually well watered Middle Atlantic region of the U.S. where wells go dry. Some of our rural small towns and agricultural regions have residences serviced by wells. Don't know about the midwest or south.


My Wife's relatives own a working farm, with a contract with Del Monte for veggies, in South GA about 10 miles North of the of the Florida Border and their wells (artisian fed) have been on the lower end for the past few months but not in crisis mode. Some of the expected El Nino rains should resolve that issue but the recent fronts with more rain have been missing them further to the North.
They are in Whigham, GA and here they are right in the Short-Term drought pocket just above Tallahassee:

Current U.S. Drought Monitor

Another record expected today in S.W. Florida with a forecast high of 91 degrees.
Farmers and such around the Country are very nice hard working people who try to take care of their families. When we moved up to Tallahassee (and I grew up in the Miami buying food at Publix) and I went up to meet them, having married into the family, they greeted me with invitations to go Bass fishing and Hunting and gave us a large basket of fresh veggies and showed me the farm. Then as we were leaving they told me that they had no money, but plenty of food, and that our family would never go hungry if times got rough..................They have been on that farmland-family plot for over 100 years...........We just went to a funeral for one of the farming elders and my daughter commented on how good the veggies and chicken tasted. I explained that this food was fresh and had not been sitting in a box at Publix for several weeks..................................
Tampa reached a high of 92 yesterday, which is the warmest temperature in November recorded history for the city. Today's forecasted high by the NWS is 90, which would beat the daily record by 2 degrees. The month has averaged 10.5 degrees above normal.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a broad
low pressure area, associated with a tropical wave, has formed over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This system is expected to move
west-northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula into the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Some slow development
is possible during the couple of days. After that time, the low is
expected to encounter a cold front, which would make additional
development unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

2. An area of low pressure could form near or to the north of Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola late this weekend. Some slow development of
this system is possible early next week while it moves
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Beven
Quoting 293. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Twisting and uh turning?


"They See Me Rollin, they Hating..."
Had a VIIRS pass of 05A
Quoting 338. Skyepony:

Had a VIIRS pass of 05A


Looks Pretty Well Developed. Shame Yemen will have to deal with this again.
Here we are in November and the temperature in Port St. Lucie is 83 degrees at 7:30 AM. It will be above average this whole week-perhaps into next week.

I'm not complaining
8-)
0Z Euro showing our first major rain maker from this El-Nino to move into FL later this weekend into next week. Very possible that we could see 2" to 4" of rain across C & N FL over the next 5 days.

Quoting 334. tampabaymatt:

Tampa reached a high of 92 yesterday, which is the warmest temperature in November recorded history for the city. Today's forecasted high by the NWS is 90, which would beat the daily record by 2 degrees. The month has averaged 10.5 degrees above normal.




I don't even notice it anymore. I wasn't even remotely surprised yesterday to see cumulonimbus clouds capped with flashes of lightning in the distance. Summer simply never went away here in Florida. 92F, humidity >80% and temperatures in the upper 70s in the middle of the night.
Quoting 322. barbamz:


TC5. Source. BBL.

Looks like at least the island of Socotra could be in direct line for at least another bad storm.
They might as well suspend cleaning up until this one has passed.
Quoting 316. HurricaneJamaica:


Sure Looks like an Alien Storm!


It's not an alien. It's a gremlin.
Euro is latching onto Caribbean system with a track veering NE across Northern FL in 4 to 5 days. This has the making of being a very significant rain maker for FL.

Day 4


Day 5
CPC will likely increase Nino 3.4 to record levels come Monday.



The latest TAO update is suggesting Nino 3.4 might be up to 2.9C
Quoting 338. Skyepony:

Had a VIIRS pass of 05A


The path of this storm seems to be directly west.
Here's a 2 days from now wind projection of where it might be.
Also there seems to be another big system developing off the coast of south east India.

Link
Quoting 345. StormTrackerScott:

Euro is latching onto Caribbean system with a track veering NE across Northern FL in 4 to 5 days. This has the making of being a very significant rain maker for FL.

Day 4


Day 5


It has been so dry in South Florida and so hot well above average temps. well below normal precipitation. We need this super nino to kick in
Quoting 348. WeatherConvoy:


It has been so dry in South Florida and so hot well above average temps. well below normal precipitation. We need this super nino to kick in


It looks like its beginning to lock in. Euro going out thru day 16 on the ensembles is showing the jet undercutting across the South and getting progressively stronger as we approach Thanksgiving.
India Meteorological Department
Satellite Bulletin Description
17:30 PM IST November 5 2015
=============================

Vortex (05A) over east central and adjoining west central Arabian Sea has further organized and intensified into a cyclonic storm centered near 14.0N 64.0E.

Dvorak intensity: T2.5 RPT 2.5

Curve band pattern
Very significant??? Tell that to N & S Carolina last month or Texas these past 2 weeks!

Quoting 345. StormTrackerScott:

Euro is latching onto Caribbean system with a track veering NE across Northern FL in 4 to 5 days. This has the making of being a very significant rain maker for FL.
Quoting 351. capeflorida:

Significant??? Tell that to N & S Carolina last month or Texas this past 2 weeks!



2" to 4" is significant for November and some of these totals could be higher as models are showing very deep tropical moisture moving into FL starting later on Saturday. Sunday & Monday could be stormy across FL and we will need to watch for areas of training storms coming in off the Gulf.
Quoting 351. capeflorida:

Very significant??? Tell that to N & S Carolina last month or Texas this past 2 weeks!



Active Flood Watch for south central Texas right now.
JB keeps trying to back up his claims for this Nino to be similar to 2002 or 2009 is just outlandish. This event is a Basin wide Strong event with even Nino 4 crossing 1.5C.

Quoting 353. Sfloridacat5:



Active Flood Watch for south central Texas right now.


It appears the focus is about to shift in a few days to FL. There's another system too in the 9 to day 10 time frame as well with the pattern even getting more active closer to Thanksgiving across FL.

Very active pattern about to begin for FL.

Quoting 343. PlazaRed:


Looks like at least the island of Socotra could be in direct line for at least another bad storm.
They might as well suspend cleaning up until this one has passed.
The HWRF has this system at 952 mb,s, skirting the entire north coast..It weakens to 996 mb,s when nearing the coast of Yemen..


Quoting 334. tampabaymatt:

Tampa reached a high of 92 yesterday, which is the warmest temperature in November recorded history for the city. Today's forecasted high by the NWS is 90, which would beat the daily record by 2 degrees. The month has averaged 10.5 degrees above normal.


Local met in NE Fl say cooler temps coming on Mon with a high of around 70. YAYYYY!!!
The disturbance in the Western Caribbean that the NHC is monitoring for slow development, now has a surface low attached to the tropical wave. So we a have a combination of 3 things: surface low, tropical wave, and ULL.

Quoting 357. Loduck:

Local met in NE Fl say cooler temps coming on Mon with a high of around 70. YAYYYY!!!


Yeah but that is because of it raining all day. Not cooler from a cold front moving thru the area but mainly because of increased clouds and rain.
Quoting 359. GTstormChaserCaleb:

The disturbance in the Western Caribbean that the NHC is monitoring for slow development, now has a surface low attached to the tropical wave. So we a have a combination of 3 things: surface low, tropical wave, and ULL.




Euro bends this disturbance up into the Gulf and across FL in 4 days.
362. MahFL
Quoting 345. StormTrackerScott:

Euro is latching onto Caribbean system with a track veering NE across Northern FL in 4 to 5 days. This has the making of being a very significant rain maker for FL.


Man I want to get excited !

Active tropics in the Atlantic in November?
Quoting 334. tampabaymatt:

Tampa reached a high of 92 yesterday, which is the warmest temperature in November recorded history for the city. Today's forecasted high by the NWS is 90, which would beat the daily record by 2 degrees. The month has averaged 10.5 degrees above normal.


This heat sucks. It's brewing season and I need the cooler weather to maintain appropriate fermentation temperatures. Right now I am blowing through ice like crazy.
356. hydrus
9:09 AM EST on November 05, 2015

Morning Hydrus. Can't take my eyes off what's been happening in this region. I feel for all impacted and those involved in trying to bring relief to them!
366. JRRP

Here is the JTWC info on the new storm headed into the Middle East:





Not forecast to be as intense as the last storm in Yemen but will make a flooding situation worse:

REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 63.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 546 NM EAST
OF SOCOTRA ISLAND, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP, ALBEIT FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDS
WRAPPED INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON THE LLCC FEATURE IN
THE MSI LOOP THAT LINES UP WELL WITH A LOW REFLECTIVITY LLCC FEATURE
IN THE 051011Z SSMI PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED
ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. TC 05A IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE
HORN OF AFRICA FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT POLEWARD
TURN INTO WESTERN YEMEN AFTER TAU 96. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS TEMPERED ONLY BY COOL DRY AIR ADVECTING FROM THE ARABIAN
PENINSULA WILL PROMOTE STEADY INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 60 KNOTS BY
TAU 72. AFTERWARDS, LAND INTERACTION, COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VWS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
THE
LIMITED AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE FORMATIVE STAGE OF THE CYCLONE AND ITS TENTATIVE
STORM MOTION, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z,
060900Z AND 061500Z.//
NNNN

Named Megh, which is listed on the RSMC name list as pronounced as "Me' gh" and was contributed by India.

TC ADVISORY
DTG:20151105/1200Z
TCAC: NEW DELHI
TC: MEGH
NR:02
PSN: N140 E640
MOV:WSW 08KT
C: 0998 HPA
MAX WIND :35KT
Quoting 249. rainless:

"This would take Austin close to 60" for the year. Surprisingly that's not real close to the record"

They don't call Central and South Texas Flood Alley for no reason. Weather history tells the tale.

http://www.floodsafety.com/texas/USGSdemo/date.ht m


Well it's floodin' down in Texas
All of the telephone lines are down
Well it's floodin' down in Texas
All of the telephone lines are down
And I've been tryin' to call my baby
Lord and I can't get a single sound
Well dark clouds are rollin' in
Man I'm standin' out in the rain
Well dark clouds are rollin' in
Man I'm standin' out in the rain
Yeah flood water keep a rollin'
Man it's about to drive poor me insane
Well I'm leavin' you baby
Lord and I'm goin' back home to stay
Well I'm leavin' you baby
Lord and I'm goin' back home to stay
Well back home there're no floods or tornadoes
Baby the sun shines every day

Looks like there is relief in sight according to the end of the 2 week forecast. High of 80 on the 19th.
Quoting 364. SouthTampa:

This heat sucks. It's brewing season and I need the cooler weather to maintain appropriate fermentation temperatures. Right now I am blowing through ice like crazy.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
CYCLONIC STORM MEGH (ARB05-2015)
17:30 PM IST November 5 2015
=============================

At 12:00 PM UTC, The deep depression over east central Arabian Sea moved westward at a speed of 15k km/h in past six hours, intensified into cyclonic storm, and now lays centered near 14.0N 64.0E, about 1090 km southwest of Mumbai (43003) and 1120 km east southeast of Salalah (41316), Oman.

It would move west southwestwards and intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hours.Thereafter it would move west southwestwards towards Gulf of Aden.

According to satellite imagery, intensity is T2.5. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection over area between 12.0N to 17.0N and 62.0E to 66.0E. Minimum cloud top temperature is -83C, the cloud shows curved band pattern.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The state of the sea is high around the center. The estimated central pressure of the cyclonic storm is 998 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS 13.7N 62.3E - 40-45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 13.3N 60.6E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS 12.7N 57.3E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS 12.4N 53.7E - 40-45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)

Additional Information
===============
The associated convection has increased in past 12 hours with increase in organization and convective banding. The winds are higher over the northern sector. The sea surface temperature around the system center is 29C. The ocean thermal energy is about 60-80 kj/cm2 around system center and is less than 50 kj/cm2 over northern parts of west central Arabian Sea adjacent to Oman and Yemen coasts. The vertical wind shear is about 5-10 knots (low) around the system center and to the west. The low level relative vorticity and convergence have increased during past 12 hours. There is favorable poleward and westward outflow in association with the anti-cyclonic circulation lying to the northeast of the system center. The upper tropospheric ridge at 200 HPA level runs along 16.0N. Most of the numerical weather prediction models are suggesting gradual intensification of the system during next 24 hours. Dynamical statistical models also suggest the gradual intensification of the system. Considering the movement, most of the models are unanimous about west southwestward movement. The forecast is mainly based on multimodel ensemble guidance.
India Meteorological Department
17:30 PM IST November 5 2015
================================

Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea

Broken low and medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection lies over southern Bay of Bengal and southern Andaman Sea.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
============================
24 HRS: NIL
24-48 HRS: NIL
48-72 HRS: LOW
The wave train continues here in the south as one system after another forms in Mexico and hits Texas to the Carolina's. What's perplexing is these systems linger for days if not weeks. Many areas are in constant cloud cover with high dew points and moisture that never seems to give up. There is no pattern to weather anymore as all these cutoff lows and upper level lows that form out of nowhere. The weather is nothing but extreme worldwide including off the charts high temperatures. California needs rain, the south needs the sun as where being inundated with mushrooms. There are no patterns anymore as well as normal weather. To look at figures from the past and relate them to current events is like shooting darts blindfolded. All I know is these wild weather events will continue as all forecasts can be taken with a grain of salt.
Hmmmmm..... wonder if this feature wants to collide with stalling front over TX and open the flood gates once again for the Lone Star State



Models could totally be out to lunch and under forecasting rain totals
Quoting 352. StormTrackerScott:



2" to 4" is significant for November and some of these totals could be higher as models are showing very deep tropical moisture moving into FL starting later on Saturday. Sunday & Monday could be stormy across FL and we will need to watch for areas of training storms coming in off the Gulf.


When you say "Florida" - you're stating from Key West to Pensacola and all places in-between will be stormy or will this be "parts of Florida" ?
Quoting 375. RitaEvac:

Hmmmmm..... wonder if this feature wants to collide with stalling front over TX and open the flood gates once again for the Lone Star State



Models could totally be out to lunch and under forecasting rain totals


And that's why I have a boat on a floating dock ready to go....
Quoting 364. SouthTampa:

This heat sucks. It's brewing season and I need the cooler weather to maintain appropriate fermentation temperatures. Right now I am blowing through ice like crazy.
Best reason ever for wanting cool weather!
P.S. Please send samples.
Almost looks like August out there. Spin in the East Pacific, and two rather healthy waves.

Quoting 378. capeflorida:

Best reason ever for wanting cool weather!
P.S. Please send samples.

We use to brew too.., better taste, less calories, and more power...so to speak.
Hey guys

NW Carib AOI (Possible invest) is giving quite stormy conditions in Grand Cayman yesterday and today forecast is calling for it to last through the rest of the week and into weekend

Quoting 360. StormTrackerScott:



Yeah but that is because of it raining all day. Not cooler from a cold front moving thru the area but mainly because of increased clouds and rain.


I will take it (if this even applies to the Orlando area at all)!
Typically, cyclones originating in the NW Caribbean in November move ENE and tend to pass to the SE of FL. However, it is early November and also, with the weather patterns as unpredictable as they have been of late, past results are no guarantee of what will happen with weather now (this has always been the case actually).

As much as I love cool/cold and stormy weather, I also love tropical gardening. Not French Riviera,"tropicalesque" gardening, but true gardening with frost/freeze intolerant plants. I now have a yard that is landscaped like a palm enthusiast's yard in the Miami area, so it has given me a reason to embrace the heat/humidity here, where before I just hated it. I will appreciate our summer in November for as long as it lasts, but would also enjoy a nice windy rainstorm as that has not occurred here in years (except isolated summer thunderstorms).
Tropical Stom Megh:



HWRF has it peaking as a minimal category 4:


Euro has it peaking as a 1001 mb tropical storm:



The GFS doesn't show it becoming a tropical storm on the latest run.

Seems like the Euro/GFS are having issues with intensification of the system at the moment as it's already a 996 mb 35kt tropical storm. The system should have low-moderate shear (5-15kts) and SSTs of 28-29C along its path, which'll allow it to intensify over the next few days. Perhaps into a category 3 or higher as the conditions are there.

Unfortunately it's likely to bring more flooding rains to parts of Yemen and the island of Socotra again. Will have to be watched very closely, especially if the HWRF is right as a wobble in the track could cause the island of Socotra to take a direct hit from a category 3/4 storm.
Two significant T.C threatening the horn of Africa within a week and record highs being broken in the U.S and other parts of the world and someone is trying to tell me nothing is wrong here?
HERE WE GO! HERE WE GO! HERE WE GOOOOOOOO! HERE WE GO! HERE WE GO!





I will be releasing a blog on how to lose weight in 3 weeks as it could come in handy later after the holidays for some on here :).Out until later
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a broad
low pressure area, associated with a tropical wave, has formed over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This system is expected to move
west-northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula into the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Some slow development
is possible during the couple of days. After that time, the low is
expected to encounter a cold front, which would make additional
development unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

An area of low pressure could form near or to the north of Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola late this weekend. Some slow development of
this system is possible early next week while it moves
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Quoting 286. SouthCentralTx:



No doubt, local met that told people last week that the flooding could be serious is being serious about tomorrow morning and it's just becoming very concerning. I'm not worried about me getting flooded, i'll never get flooded where I am. However not far from me is the Canyon Lake Dam where they are releasing water about 6k cfs and the river is elevated. Why on earth are they still releasing this much water right now is beyond me. I just hope that where ever these storms tonight line up that people are prepared because these events are just so unpredictable.

It's what I was wondering about, just recently, and I suppose they had a concern, too, and may be releasing water to make room for MORE and to avert a worse problem, potentially.  They can shut it down as needed, but they need to keep room in the lakes for all the runoff if rains get heavy and in order to prevent having to release at a much higher rate, later.
Quoting 386. Envoirment:

Tropical Stom Megh:
The GFS doesn't show it becoming a tropical storm on the latest run.

Seems like the Euro/GFS are having issues with intensification of the system at the moment as it's already a 996 mb 35kt tropical storm. The system should have low-moderate shear (5-15kts) and SSTs of 28-29C along its path, which'll allow it to intensify over the next few days. Perhaps into a category 3 or higher as the conditions are there.

Unfortunately it's likely to bring more flooding rains to parts of Yemen and the island of Socotra again. Will have to be watched very closely, especially if the HWRF is right as a wobble in the track could cause the island of Socotra to take a direct hit from a category 3/4 storm.

Well the Patricia scare has me on toes since. So I didn't suffer too badly (from surprise) thru Chapala and I am totally accepting HRWF solutions for now if they are rough like this.
Megh could already be at hurricane force inside of 24 hours.
The bright side of things in Texas is that the rains might push through fairly quickly. Hopefully, the totals won't be too high if that happens. The ugly scenario would be if indeed the front stalls - as some suspect - and the Low from the Yucatan region brings that mass of tropical moisture up against it too close to central or SE Texas.
Quoting 370. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Well it's floodin' down in Texas
All of the telephone lines are down
Well it's floodin' down in Texas
All of the telephone lines are down
And I've been tryin' to call my baby
Lord and I can't get a single sound
Well dark clouds are rollin' in
Man I'm standin' out in the rain
Well dark clouds are rollin' in
Man I'm standin' out in the rain
Yeah flood water keep a rollin'
Man it's about to drive poor me insane
Well I'm leavin' you baby
Lord and I'm goin' back home to stay
Well I'm leavin' you baby
Lord and I'm goin' back home to stay
Well back home there're no floods or tornadoes
Baby the sun shines every day




That calls for SRV
NWS New Orleans, disco
Previous discussion... /issued 423 am CST Thursday Nov 5 2015/

Well for what looks like now the 3rd weekend in a row...we look wet.
Over 2 and a half months of rather dry weather has quickly turned
into a wet pattern. Ridge over the East Coast and into the Gulf
will break down and slide east. Combine that with the western
Continental U.S. L/west trough and SW flow aloft will begin to increase. At the
same time high pressure at the surface over the East Coast will
also push east leading to increased southeasterly to srly ll flow. On Friday
a short wave embedded in the l/west trough will move through the 4 corners
today and into the Central Plains Thursday night and early Friday. This will
help to drive a cold front into the lower MS valley Friday but will
greatly slow down until it gets a renewed push this weekend. So
what does this mean...SW flow aloft paralleling a generally
stationary to slow moving boundary combined with ample moisture and
we have the recipe for widespread rain once again. Initially rain showers
with embedded thunderstorms and rain will be possible as a squall line sags into the
area Friday but the risk for thunderstorms and rain will start to diminish as we move
through the weekend. Overall widespread 1 to 3 inches of rain with
locally higher amounts will be possible. /Cab/
Quoting 390. Tazmanian:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST THU NOV 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a broad
low pressure area, associated with a tropical wave, has formed over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This system is expected to move
west-northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula into the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Some slow development
is possible during the couple of days. After that time, the low is
expected to encounter a cold front, which would make additional
development unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

An area of low pressure could form near or to the north of Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola late this weekend. Some slow development of
this system is possible early next week while it moves
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
Lets see what happens.
Quoting 379. hydrus:

Almost looks like August out there. Spin in the East Pacific, and two rather healthy waves.




Hmm, that's some serious-looking blobulation going on there.
(-All the young people out there should stop laughing and look it up in the dictionary before you criticize.)
;)

Blobulation -- BLO'-bu-LAy-tion: a blobular weather phenomenon composed of masses of clouds and water vapor with a roiling pattern or activity.
plus for post 397 for excellent use of the word "roiling"
New report finds human-caused climate change increased the severity of many extreme events in 2014

From NOAA:

Explaining Extreme Events of 2014

November 5, 2015

Human activities, such as greenhouse gas emissions and land use, influenced specific extreme weather and climate events in 2014, including tropical cyclones in the central Pacific, heavy rainfall in Europe, drought in East Africa, and stifling heat waves in Australia, Asia, and South America, according to a new report released today. The report, “Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 from a Climate Perspective” published by the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, addresses the natural and human causes of individual extreme events from around the world in 2014, including Antarctica. NOAA scientists served as three of the five lead editors on the report.

“For the past four years, this report has shown that human activities are influencing specific extreme weather and climate events around the world,” said Thomas R. Karl, LHD, director of NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information. “In the 79 papers that have been published through the annual report over the past four years, over half of these papers show a linkage to human-caused climate change.”

Read more >>

For more information, see the NOAA Press Release and view the slides for the media briefing [pdf] on the report.

Quoting 355. StormTrackerScott:



It appears the focus is about to shift in a few days to FL. There's another system too in the 9 to day 10 time frame as well with the pattern even getting more active closer to Thanksgiving across FL.

Very active pattern about to begin for FL.


...Just so long as the Polar Vortex doesn't visit at the same time!
Quoting 389. washingtonian115:

I will be releasing a blog on how to lose weight in 3 weeks as it could come in handy later after the holidays for some on here :).Out until later


I have seen a million fad diets over the last several decades but the best advice ever given (in a book related to healthy eating and professional athletes 30 years ago which I read) was the the following. The best way to stay trim is to eat a "healthy minimum" of quality non-fatty food, exercise everyday, and eat small/healthy snacks during the day in between your regular meals (to keep the metabolism/calorie burn going). Best thing I ever saw on this issue and it still holds true.
Quoting 398. aquak9:

plus for post 397 for excellent use of the word "roiling"


Thank you.
The "roiling" part is relevant to the real definition.
If the mass is not roiling, then there actually can be no blobulation, which makes a very important difference in the tropical cyclone potential of the weather mass. It may seem technical, but just have to make it simple sometimes for some of the newbies.
Quoting 402. WalkingInTheSun:



Thank you.
The "roiling" part is relevant to the real definition.
If the mass is not roiling, then there actually can be no blobulation, which makes a very important difference in the tropical cyclone potential of the weather mass. It may seem technical, but just have to make it simple sometimes for some of the newbies.

Getting all "roiled" up thinking about it here in Houston. It's clouding up fast downtown and looks like rain for the drive home...
Anyone ever lose their complete sense of smell from the flu or rhinitis? Day 8 for me now.
WOOHOO!!!!!! LET IT STORM! LET IT STORM! LET IT STOOOOORM! LET IT STORM! LET IT STORM!









DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1038 AM CST THU NOV 05 2015

VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS INTO
THE OZARKS AND LWR OH VLY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM S CNTRL TX NORTHEAST INTO
THE UPR MS VLY...WRN GRT LKS...AND LWR OH VLY...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTH AND EAST INTO PARTS OF EASTERN
KANSAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI. MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR NORTHEASTWARD INTO
PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
RCKYS/HIGH PLNS TROUGH EXPECTED TO EJECT ENE INTO THE WRN GRT LKS BY
12Z FRI. LEAD EMBEDDED UPR IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE SHEARING NNE ACROSS
MN LATER TODAY...WHILE STRONGER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE NOW OVER NM
ACCELERATES NE INTO CNTRL KS/NW OK THIS EVE...AND TO NEAR CHICAGO BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

COLD FRONT TRAILING SSW FROM ELONGATED SFC LOW NOW OVER MN WILL
PROGRESS STEADILY E/SE ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPR MS VLY AND CNTRL PLNS
TODAY...BEFORE ACCELERATING E/SE ACROSS THE UPR GRT LKS...LWR OH
VLY...SRN OZARKS...AND N TX EARLY FRI. OVERALL SET-UP WILL YIELD
SEVERAL AREAS OF SVR WEATHER THIS PERIOD...

...SRN PLNS TODAY INTO TNGT...
SFC HEATING...MODERATE LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF NM UPR VORT SHOULD SUPPORT STRENGTHENING OF EXISTING
STORMS...AND DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION FROM CNTRL TX NNE INTO
CNTRL/ERN OK TODAY. WITH 700-500 MB MEAN SW FLOW INCREASING TO AOA
60 KTS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS. WITH NUMEROUS STORMS
EXPECTED...PREDOMINANT SVR THREAT SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH
MUCH CERTAINTY. SOME RISK WILL...NEVERTHELESS...EXIST FOR A COUPLE
TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DMGG WIND AND POSSIBLY
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL GIVEN EXPECTED DEGREE OF SFC-BASED BUOYANCY
/SBCAPE TO 1500 J PER KG./. THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL MERGE INTO ONE
OR MORE CLUSTERS THAT PERSIST INTO LATE TNGT AND MOVE/DEVELOP E/SE
INTO NE TX AND PARTS OF AR WITH A CONTINUING THOUGH DIMINISHING RISK
FOR SVR WEATHER.

...CNTRL/ERN AR TO LWR OH VLY LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRI...
A SEPARATE SVR THREAT AREA MAY ARISE LATER TODAY INTO TNGT ON ERN
FRINGE OF WAA TSTM BAND NOW IN PLACE FROM NE TX INTO N CNTRL AR.
STLT AND GPS PW DATA SHOW RICH MOISTURE /PW TO 2 INCHES/ POISED TO
OVERSPREAD REGION AS WIND FIELD APPRECIABLY STRENGTHENS WITH THE
CONTINUED ENE ADVANCE OF NM UPR TROUGH /850-700 MB FLOW AOA 50 KTS/.
THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTENSIVE SW-NE
ORIENTED SQLN...WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS/LOW-AMPLITUDE BOWS MOVING
PARALLEL TO THE DEEP SHEAR FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. THUS...A
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD TORNADOES AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND
EVENTS LATE TNGT/EARLY FRI.

LWR MO VLY TO UPR MS VLY/WRN GRT LKS LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY
FRI...
A THIRD AREA OF POTENTIAL SVR WEATHER MAY ARISE THIS AFTN ALONG COLD
FRONT FROM WI/IA SSW INTO ERN KS...WHERE LIMITED SFC-BASED BUOYANCY
AND SCTD SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH MODEST SFC HEATING. AS NM
UPR IMPULSE APPROACHES THIS EVE...COMBINATION OF INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MAY FOSTER SOME
INTENSIFICATION OF THE CONVECTION AS WELL AS AN E/NE ACCELERATION OF
THE STORMS AS MID-LVL WINDS INCREASE TO AOA 75 KTS. WHILE BUOYANCY
WILL BE LIMITED...ABOVE-AVERAGE SFC TEMPS ALREADY IN PLACE SUGGEST A
PERHAPS BETTER-THAN-EVEN CHANCE THAT AN EXTENSIVE...NARROW...LINE OF
FORCED CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE/PERSIST...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR
LOCALLY DMGG WIND NEWD INTO THE PARTS OF IL..IND AND MI.
Quoting 397. WalkingInTheSun:



Hmm, that's some serious-looking blobulation going on there.
(-All the young people out there should stop laughing and look it up in the dictionary before you criticize.)
;)

Blobulation -- BLO'-bu-LAy-tion: a blobular weather phenomenon composed of masses of clouds and water vapor with a roiling pattern or activity.

You might be getting a letter from Grothar's attorney, something about copyright infringement..... Just saying ;-]
000
NOUS42 KNHC 051515
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EST THU 05 NOVEMBER 2015
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z NOVEMBER 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-163

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 22.0N 95.0W AT 7/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: THE ATLANTIC WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP

Again?
000
ABNT20 KNHC 051746
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST THU NOV 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad low pressure area over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. This system
is expected to move west-northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula
into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Some slow
development is possible during the couple of days. After that time,
the low is expected to encounter a cold front, which would make
additional development unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

An area of low pressure could form near or to the north of Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola late this weekend. Some slow development of
this system is possible early next week while it moves
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven
Wow a month of WWB during October is causing this El-Nino to really intensify right now. Sub surface anomalies have increased to 8C and according to the TAO charts it appears Nino 3.4 is up to 2.8C or even 2.9C right now. If this is verified next Monday by the CPC then we would have tied or surpassed the previous highest El-Nino ever recorded back in 1997. Pretty incredible event taking shape I'll say.

Very likely we still have another 4 to 6 weeks before this El-Nino peaks as this new OKW means business.
Quoting 404. Patrap:

Anyone ever lose their complete sense of smell from the flu or rhinitis? Day 8 for me now.
I often lose my sense of taste, too. It's gross, eating food and not tasting it, it's like having some kinda odd stuff in your mouth, like wet cardboard or something.
Quoting 411. StormTrackerScott:

Very likely we still have another 4 to 6 weeks before this El-Nino peaks as this new OKW means business.
Going out on a limb, but i think it can peak to 3.2*C
Look at this incredible increase the last 30 days across the ENSO regions of the Pacific even Nino 1&2 is sky rocketing this week. Now we have 3 of 4 ENSO regions in Super El-Nino territory with Nino 4 in Strong territory. 1997 & 1982 couldn't even produce anything like what we are seeing now.

October 1st


November 5th
Quoting 414. jlp09550:


This thing looks very good
Quoting 415. Andrebrooks:

Going out on a limb, but i think it can peak to 3.2*C


3C is coming for sure it appears as a weekly peak by the CPC.
This little boy has turned into a man.

6,000 miles of high sea surface anomalies is about to unleash havoc across the Globe even more so than what is already occurring. I hope everyone on here is ready for a active Thanksgiving time period across the SE US.
A warmer,more Water Vapor Laden atmosphere is flexing...

This is a much different Atmosphere we have created since 1983.


Extreme Heat Is Defining Climate Change

Published: November 5th, 2015
Brian Kahn


The lasting legacy of climate change will be heat. The land, the oceans, all of it. It’s the tie that binds and while the global average temperature is the defining metric, the increasing incidence of heat waves and longer lasting extreme heat is how the world will experience it.

All eight papers dealing with extreme heat events in this year’s Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society’s attribution report show a clear climate change signal that made them more likely, more hot or both. In fact, of the 22 studies scientists have submitted to the annual review over the past four years, only one didn’t find that climate change increased the odds or severity of extreme heat.

"​Global warming is the most obvious, well-documented effect of ​climate change,” Stephanie Herring, a climate scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and organizer of this year’s attribution issue, said. “As a result, the signal is very strong so we can more easily detect it amongst noise of natural variability compared to other types of extreme events."

In the case of a strong signal, 2014 stands out as particularly notable. It was the hottest year on record, though this year is on track to top last year’s record (and signs are already pointing to 2016 continuing the record heat parade).

Coverage of This Year's
BAMS Attribution Issue

Attribution Studies Hone in on Climate Change Signal
Extreme Heat is Defining Climate Change
Warming Is Increasing Wildfire Risks in California
The lift in background temperatures makes extreme heat more likely. “The underlying processes that relate climate change to heat wave intensity and frequency are fairly straightforward to understand: if you increase the average temperature by even a modest amount, then it turns out that you dramatically increase the area under the extreme positive ‘tail’ of the distribution,” Michael Mann, a climate scientist at Penn State who wasn’t involved in any of the new studies, said in an email.

Put another way, it’s like having Steph Curry on your basketball team. He doesn’t always guarantee a win, but he sure as heck increases the odds of a victory.

Unfortunately, rising temperatures are not a game and can have dangerous consequences. Heat at last year’s Australian Open had players hallucinating on the court and this year’s heat wave in India killed thousands.

Maximum temperature anomalies for Australia's May 2014 heat wave.
Credit: Australia Bureau of Meteorology
Researchers looked at heat waves and longer-lasting extreme heat events in Korea, Australia, Argentina, Europe and warm ocean temperatures in parts of the Pacific and Atlantic. In all cases, they found that climate change played a role in increasing the likelihood of extreme heat.

The May 2014 heat wave in Australia included some of the most dramatic results, with climate change increasing the likelihood an eye-popping, sweat-inducing 23 times.

For that study, researchers zoomed down to the city-level in Adelaide and Melbourne. Mitchell Black, the study’s lead author and Ph.D. student at the University of Melbourne, said it is likely the first time such a localized analysis has been done.

Climate change is also making extreme heat even hotter. It’s not just a game of odds when it comes to extreme heat, it’s also one of intensity. An analysis of Europe’s incredibly warm year in 2014 shows that human greenhouse gas emissions are responsible for roughly half of the extra warmth added to the system.

It’s tougher to tease out these intensity connections, but in addition to Europe’s hot year, the May 2014 Australian heat wave and a December 2013 Argentinian heat wave also got a boost in strength from global warming.

The findings could be moving from academia to the public discourse. The new findings show that it isn’t a question of if climate change is influencing extreme heat, it’s basically a question of how much of an influence it has on a particular event.

“Heat is the one ​event ​that is most ready for the ​science ​community to have a discussion of ​whether or not every heat ​attribution assessment​ necessarily​​ needs to go ​through the peer review process,” Herring said.

There are already some efforts underway to do get these types of analyses out to the public sooner rather than later, including World Weather Attribution, a project at Climate Central that involves the University of Oxford Environmental Change Institute, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, the University of Melbourne, and the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre. Herring also noted an effort by the U.K. Met Office to do real time attribution of this summer’s heat wave in Europe as an example of government agencies providing that information directly.

One of the challenges remaining for the science is reducing the range of uncertainty around how much global warming is increasing the odds of extreme heat and whether 1-in-1,000 year events will now be 1-in-100 year events or 1-in-5 year events.

Society could benefit from improved climate change and heat predictions. With heat waves likely to continue increasing in frequency and intensity, their impact on people around the world will continue to grow.

For example, danger days — when the heat index tops 105°F — are becoming more common in the U.S. and are set to rapidly increase in just 15 years.



Herring believes that quantifying the extreme heat-climate change connection could be a next step to making these types of analyses useful to society.

“I don't think there is a lot of value from the perspective of decision makers to simply say climate changes impacted the risk of an extreme event,” Herring said. “But there’s a real opportunity to be able to deliver heat information in a more timely fashion.”
Quoting 421. Patrap:

A warmer,more Water Vapor Laden atmosphere is flexing...

This is a much different Atmosphere we have created since 1983.



Speaking of 83. I cant help but wonder if we will ever see a season that slow again..4 named storms..One Hurricane Alicia wuz the news that season.


TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0531
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 PM CST THU NOV 05 2015

WT 0531
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 80%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 20%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 70%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 20%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 30%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : <05%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 1.5
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 24045
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU1.
12Z Euro running and it looks wet from late Saturday thru Tuesday across much of FL. However still no cooler temps in the cards and if its cooler its because of rain and cloudy conditions. Also the lastest I ever remember not getting below 65 for a low. Currently 90 with a 68 dewpoint which is lower than the 77 earlier in the week.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 1229 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 1226 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING WICHITA KS - KICT 1213 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 1205 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 1203 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 1145 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 1128 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 1025 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 1013 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 1001 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015

Quoting 378. capeflorida:

Best reason ever for wanting cool weather!
P.S. Please send samples.

The cold water and an ale-temp basement are two of only a handful of things I miss about living in Michigan.
Deathtoll from Chapala slowly rising:

Cyclone Chapala: 8 killed in southeastern Yemen
40 people were also injured over the two days
By AFP, Published Thursday, November 05, 2015
Eight people were killed in southeastern Yemen by a rare tropical cyclone that wreaked havoc in parts of the war-torn country this week, a local official said Thursday.
The deaths, five by drowning and three in collapsed homes, occurred in Hadramawt province between Tuesday and early Wednesday, before Cyclone Chapala eased into a depression, said Mohammed al-Amudi of the governorate's technical affairs department. ...
Quoting 419. StormTrackerScott:

This little boy has turned into a man.




See? -- Isn't this enough proof that global warming is manmade...just like the ice age?
:)
Quoting 404. Patrap:

Anyone ever lose their complete sense of smell from the flu or rhinitis? Day 8 for me now.


Some crab stuffed jalapeos from Coop's might help that out... Mmmm!

It's got a X & 20%

Quoting 414. jlp09550:


Quoting 427. Patrap:




It looks like some interesting activity could find its way into the SW GOM.
This time of year could also pull it northward with a frontal boundary.
vis.loop///n.w.carib.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Regarding El Nino growing into a man.


Wow when you look at the sea height anomalies it really drives home the fact there is more heat at deeper depths under the surface relative 1997. Even though 1997 had some insane WWBs, 2015 had WWBs over significantly warmer water and i think we're seeing the results of that now. So it seems on track to peak later and greater than 1997, as you and others suggest. Will be fascinating to see how all the factors come into play, including the fact of it being a unique kind of basin-wide anomaly.
Quoting 420. StormTrackerScott:

6,000 miles of high sea surface anomalies is about to unleash havoc across the Globe even more so than what is already occurring. I hope everyone on here is ready for a active Thanksgiving time period across the SE US.

12 z drops the gulf low.
Develops SE Bahamas low instead. That may dry Fl. out again...
Quoting 416. StormTrackerScott:

Look at this incredible increase the last 30 days across the ENSO regions of the Pacific even Nino 1&2 is sky rocketing this week. Now we have 3 of 4 ENSO regions in Super El-Nino territory with Nino 4 in Strong territory. 1997 & 1982 couldn't even produce anything like what we are seeing now.

October 1st


November 5th



so what am I missing Scott?.. it looks like more of the pacific is warmer in OCT than Nov.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1927
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 PM CST THU NOV 05 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS AND WRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 051855Z - 052030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST THE RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH
21-23Z.

DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AN
APPARENT PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE...ROUGHLY ALIGNED
WITH A 30-40 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET STREAK...CONTINUES TO SPREAD
INTO THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF ACCELERATING
NORTH NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WHICH IS ALSO
LEADING TO STRENGTHENING OF CYCLONIC 500 MB FLOW TO 90+ KT WITHIN A
NARROW BELT ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION...TOWARD THE
LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.

AS THIS CONTINUES THROUGH THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME...STORMS SHOULD
PROGRESS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS BEGINNING TO DESTABILIZE WITH
SURFACE HEATING. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR...WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS NOW BEGINNING TO FORM IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
FRONT...ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS...WHERE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION HAS ALREADY OCCURRED WITH GREATER
SURFACE HEATING. REGARDLESS...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG OR
STRENGTHENING...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER
MEAN FLOW /ON THE ORDER OF 40-50+ KT/...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY
BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ALSO
APPEARS POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST STORMS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.

..KERR/CORFIDI.. 11/05/2015


ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 37639672 38609650 39159582 40519476 40519353 40059272
38919301 37579397 37109481 37099634 37639672
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1202 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015

Multiple versions of the HRRR are now showing a QLCS moving into
the northwest periphery of our area around midnight. The 12Z
models continue to show enough shear and elevated instability
to support some severe weather in the overnight hours. SPC`s
latest day 1 outlook describes the concern pretty well. It still
looks like lightning will be very iffy tonight.



SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WS 0532
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 PM CST THU NOV 05 2015

WS 0532
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 20%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 20%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 80%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 30%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : <05%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 1.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 65
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 400
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 22050
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU2.
Quoting 404. Patrap:

Anyone ever lose their complete sense of smell from the flu or rhinitis? Day 8 for me now.
If you have been using a zinc preparation that can happen.
Quoting 388. 62901IL:

HERE WE GO! HERE WE GO! HERE WE GOOOOOOOO! HERE WE GO! HERE WE GO!








LEEEEEEEEERRRRRRRRROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOYYYYYYY YYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY JEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEENNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNKIIIIIIIII IIIIIIIIIIIIINNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNSSSSSSSSSS!
Quoting 429. barbamz:

Deathtoll from Chapala slowly rising:

Cyclone Chapala: 8 killed in southeastern Yemen
40 people were also injured over the two days
By AFP, Published Thursday, November 05, 2015
Eight people were killed in southeastern Yemen by a rare tropical cyclone that wreaked havoc in parts of the war-torn country this week, a local official said Thursday.
The deaths, five by drowning and three in collapsed homes, occurred in Hadramawt province between Tuesday and early Wednesday, before Cyclone Chapala eased into a depression, said Mohammed al-Amudi of the governorate's technical affairs department. ...

Let's hope Megh doesn't add to their misery.
Quoting 404. Patrap:

Anyone ever lose their complete sense of smell from the flu or rhinitis? Day 8 for me now.


Couldn't smell, or taste anything correctly for weeks during, and after dengue fever...
Quoting 432. Gearsts:




I feel like the size of that may be exaggerated lol.
Quoting 445. TimSoCal:



I feel like the size of that may be exaggerated lol.


I agree. That must be what, Tip-sized?
Quoting 445. TimSoCal:



I feel like the size of that may be exaggerated lol.
Low resolution.
What a wild day of weather setting up. If models are correct this instability should reach my neck of the woods here in Wisconsin by evening. Looks like this Caribbean disturbance combining with a cold front will bring some wicked weather for Texas and the Gulf maybe next week. Could be some nasty severe weather over the next eight weeks. While this will be a moderate outbreak of severe weather, guessing we'll see at least one larger outbreak over November through December, if not more.
Quoting 449. DeepSeaRising:

What a wild day of weather setting up. If models are correct this instability should reach my neck of the woods here in Wisconsin by evening. Looks like this Caribbean disturbance combining with a cold front will bring some wicked weather for Texas and the Gulf maybe next week. Could be some nasty severe weather over the next eight weeks. While this will be a moderate outbreak of severe weather, guessing we'll see at least one larger outbreak over November through December, if not more.

Let me say this is the best day ever for me in a while.
I have made a new blog on weight loss
Link

If you read you read it, if you don't well I guess you don't.Either way I hope it comes in handy for those seeking a better life style.If I could (excuse the french) get off my fat ass and loose the weight then I'm sure others can as well (unless of course medical conditions).

Out until later.
Got a simple question for some more knowable than me, please: What model is represented by those CHP.... plots below? Looked at several explanation sites like this one and couldn't find it.

Current intensity forecasts for Megh:

Source.
Quoting 444. indianrivguy:



Couldn't smell, or taste anything correctly for weeks during, and after dengue fever...


IRG, did you contract Dengue fever in the US or abroad? I know we had a few cases here in Miami, but some of those happened because of people traveling to places were it is more common.(and the mosquitoes weren't as controlled)


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1928
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 PM CST THU NOV 05 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL TX INTO SERN OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 531...

VALID 052017Z - 052145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 531 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOW WELL
UNDERWAY...GENERALLY FOCUSED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE ZONE...ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A 30-40 KT SOUTHERLY 850
MB JET STREAK. THE CORE OF THIS LOW-LEVEL JET APPEARS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE RED RIVER...INTO
THE OZARK PLATEAU BY EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODESTLY STRONG IN ITS WAKE...AS FAR SOUTH AS
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THIS TIME.

ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER CYCLONIC...SOUTHWESTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW...MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION /MIXED
LAYER CAPE UP TO 1500 J PER KG/ APPEARS TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS
OF THE TEXAS BIG COUNTRY INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SIMILAR
DESTABILIZATION STILL SEEMS PROBABLE NORTHEAST/EASTWARD ACROSS THE
DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY...INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...THROUGH 23-00Z. THIS
SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT CONTINUED UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH ON THE
SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE EASTWARD ADVANCING SQUALL LINE. ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS PROBABLY WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF/OR
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE.

WHILE DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME SEVERE HAIL MAY BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
WITH THE SQUALL LINE...THE MORE DISCRETE CELLS MAY INCREASINGLY
BECOME ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR TORNADOES...IN THE PRESENCE OF AN
UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SEASONABLY HIGH DEW POINTS /AROUND 70F/
AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

..KERR.. 11/05/2015


ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...
Quoting 455. barbamz:

Got a simple question for some more knowable than me, please: What model is represented by those CHP.... plots below? Looked at several explanation sites like this one and couldn't find it.

Current intensity forecasts for Megh:

Source.


I don't think I've ever seen such an enormous range of intensity forecasts. Anywhere from 25 mph to a high end cat 4. Obviously, the models are 'all at sea'.
[Edit: Have just transfered this to the new blog]

NASA Earth Observatory: Chapala Drenches the Desert
The Operational Land Imager (OLI) on Landsat 8 captured false-color images of flooded regions of Yemen following the landfall of Cyclone Chapala. The top image was acquired on October 19, 2015; the second image was acquired on November 4. Both use a combination of visible light and infrared (Landsat bands 3,5,and 7, or green, near-infrared, and shortwave infrared) that makes it easier to see floodwater on the landscape.
To see the "before" image and more, please follow link above.
Edit: Or visit CWG: Interactive slider: Before and after Cyclone Chapala's devastating rains in Yemen
Starting to see a line developing from SW Minnesota into Northern Wisconsin, should intensify and eventually move SE though the late afternoon into evening. Wouldn't be surprised to see some cells get severe warned with it. Models are shaping up to be handling this event very well.
First tornado warning of the day!!

TORNADO WARNING
OKC107-111-052100-
/O.NEW.KTSA.TO.W.0072.151105T2028Z-151105T2100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
228 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL OKFUSKEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHWESTERN OKMULGEE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 300 PM CST

* AT 228 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
ROTATION THAT COULD PRODUCE A TORNADO AT ANY TIME WAS LOCATED OVER
OKEMAH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
OKEMAH... BEARDEN...
CASTLE... CLEARVIEW...
PHAROAH...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 IN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 212 AND
231.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3546 9644 3558 9614 3541 9609 3536 9625
3536 9643
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 236DEG 43KT 3544 9632

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 437. indianrivguy:



so what am I missing Scott?.. it looks like more of the pacific is warmer in OCT than Nov.
Hi, this Nino is bigger, but the temp. differences are not nearly as strong as 97/98. The 97/98 temps reached 10 degrees above normal in some locations, and this Nino is only 6 degrees above normal in some locations, also this Nino is centered towards the Central Pacific, compared to 97/98.