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Paris Climate Talks Begin; Five Reasons Why They Are So Important

By: Bob Henson 3:51 PM GMT on November 30, 2015

A momentous two weeks of United Nations meetings that will shape the future of Earth’s climate have begun. The 21st annual UN Conference on Climate Change (also known as the Conference of Parties, or COP21) will unfold at Le Bourget, France, about six miles northeast of downtown Paris. COP21 is bringing together some 40,000 diplomats, scientists, journalists, and observers, as well as 151 heads of state--the largest such gathering of world leaders in history. A virtual tour of the COP21 site gives a quick 3-D sense of the massive size of this undertaking. The attacks in Paris on November 13 have not caused any major disruption to the formal proceedings, although off-site protests in the Paris area have been banned. Activists around the world took part over the weekend in a Global Climate March that drew hundreds of thousands to the streets. (Climate activists undeterred by the protest ban in central Paris were teargassed, and more than 200 were detained by police.)


Figure 1. Bogata, Colombia, was one of many dozens of cities taking part in the Global Climate March on November 29, 2015. Image credit: Guillermo Legaria/AFP/Getty Images.


Figure 2. Women dressed as angels holds signs at the Place de la Repubique in Paris where hundreds of pairs of shoes were placed on November 29, 2015, on the eve of the official opening of the UN COP21 conference. The shoes were placed as part of a symbolic and peaceful rally called by the nongovernmental organization Avaaz. Image credit: Miguel Medina/AFP/Getty Images.

COP meetings occur each year, but this one has drawn the most attention since COP15 (2009) in Copenhagen. That meeting fell far short of hopes for drafting a global agreement for greenhouse-gas emission cuts that would succeed the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. This year’s meeting represents the best chance at a workable global agreement since Copenhagen--and perhaps our last chance for a long time to come. What makes COP21 so critical?

1. We’ve lost years of precious time.
Scientists have known for decades that our ever-increasing output of greenhouse gases would lead to global warming, but the world has dragged its collective feet in taking global steps to reduce emissions. Some of this is due to active cultivation of doubt by political and industrial leaders in the U.S., which was the world’s leading greenhouse emitter until the last decade. (Exxon’s downplaying of climate risks, on the heels of its own extensive research showing the reality of climate change, is a dramatic example that’s come to light this year through major investigative work.) Even if everyone in the world acknowledged the risks at hand, it would remain a Herculean task to modify the world’s reliance on fossil fuels. Global leaders--including U.S. President George H.W. Bush--signed on to the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which mandated the avoidance of “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”. The Kyoto Protocol was first attempt at putting those words into action, but the agreement had several major flaws--including the fact that the United States decided not to ratify Kyoto and, as a developing nation, China wasn’t initially required to cut its emissions. In effect, both the U.S. and China used the other country’s non-participation as carte blanche to carry out business as usual. This meant that nearly half of the world’s greenhouse emissions went unregulated by Kyoto. Unsurprisingly, the world’s greenhouse output has continued to soar. In 1997, global CO2 emissions added up to 24.4 billion metric tons, according to the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. In 2014, the total was 35.7 billion metric tons--a sobering increase of 46%. Much of this CO2 will be acting to warm our climate centuries and even millennia from now, but we’ve already seen dramatic changes since 1997, from massive polar ice loss to unrelenting sea level rise.


Figure 3. Two ways to look at carbon dioxide emissions in 2013 around the world: (top) the 18 nations with the greatest total emissions, and (bottom) the emissions per capita from those 18 nations. Larger dots indicate greater emissions. China has quickly outpaced all other nations in total CO2 emissions, due to its huge population and fast-growing economy, but the typical American is still responsible for more CO2 output than the typical person in China. Image credit: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.


2. Individuals can’t do it all.
Each of us can make big cuts in our carbon footprint through simple changes in how we get around, how efficiently we heat and cool our homes, and what we eat. These actions not only reduce emissions but also help motivate us to get friends and neighbors interested in addressing climate change. Plus, as consumers demand energy-efficient alternatives, it spurs the marketplace to provide them. All of this is good news for climate, but there must be a worldwide agreement with at least some teeth in order to ensure truly global emission cuts. Otherwise, energy spendthrifts will take advantage of supply and demand to burn the fossil fuel that others manage to save through efficiency. A globally agreed price on carbon could leverage the power of the marketplace to accelerate emission reduction. Such a target is not part of the Paris agenda; however, if the world’s nations do come to agreement in other ways in Paris, it could help pave the way for eventual consideration of a global price on carbon.

3. For the first time, most nations are ready to commit to long-term emission cuts.
The Kyoto Protocol was hobbled largely by its division of the world into developed and developing nations, with the latter spared from mandated emissions cuts for the time being. The idea was that developing nations should have the same chance to build their economies that developed nations had already gotten. But the massive growth of international trade complicated the picture, because it allowed nations like China to grow rapidly while manufacturing things for developed countries--thus allowing those countries to “offshore” some of their emissions. Recognizing this flaw, organizers of the Paris summit have created a system through which each nation comes up with its own emissions goals. Going into the Paris meeting, a total of 176 nations representing more than 95% of carbon dioxide emissions have submitted what are known as Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). Together, these INDCs will not be enough to keep the world’s climate from edging beyond the 2°C warming above pre-industrial levels that is typically assumed to be the threshold of "dangerous" climate change. At best, it appears they would keep warming closer to 2.7°C. So it’ll be vital that the Paris agreement include at least some mechanisms for strengthening the plans over time.

4. A successful outcome in Paris could jump-start other action.
We already have the ability to deploy current forms of renewable energy (such as solar and wind power) at scales far larger than now exist. With a concerted effort, new technology could catalyze the process. This is the idea behind Monday’s announcement of the world’s largest-ever partnership for clean-energy research and development, involving a group of nations teaming with Bill Gates and other global billionaires.

5. It could be many years before the stars align this way again.
Given its outsized role in world affairs, the participation of the United States in any global climate deal is absolutely crucial. Yet the U.S. remains a world capital of climate-change misunderstanding. As shown in Figure 2, a poll this year by Yale University and George Mason University found that only about half of Americans believe that, assuming global warming is happening, humans are responsible for it (and only about two-thirds of Americans think that climate change is occuring at all). These numbers have changed little since 2009, though a different series of polls conducted since 2012 by the University of Texas suggests there may in fact be a recent shift toward greater climate-change acceptance.


Figure 4. Results of the polling of randomly selected Americans conducted from November 2008 (far left) to March 2015 (far right) by Yale University/George Mason University. The question: “Assuming global warming is happening, do you think it is caused mostly by human activities, or mostly by natural changes in the environment?” Image credit: Yale Project on Climate Change Communication.

The Climate Action Plan put forth in 2013 by President Barack Obama includes many concrete steps toward emission reduction, most importantly through the restrictions on U.S. coal plants. Yet the plan has already faced stiff resistance in the U.S. Congress. Depending on the outcome of the 2016 elections, the U.S. commitment to climate action is far from set in stone, which makes any agreement reached in Paris all the more important.

How to follow COP21
WIth so many journalists on the scene, and so much happening, we can expect an avalanche of coverage over the next few days. The most newsworthy periods should be the first couple of days, as world leaders assemble, and late next week, as any agreement(s) are finalized. Here are some good sources for frequently updated material:

Mashable (see also Mashable’s excellent guide to the climate talks)
Seth Borenstein, Associated Press
The Guardian
Climate Central
The Daily Climate
World Resources Institute

WU climate blogger Ricky Rood has posted a
series of blogs in the run-up to Paris, including a guide to the evolution of the COP meetings. Ricky’s words are worth keeping in mind as the events in Paris unfold: “My understanding is that the present INDC contributions produce a few percent real reduction of emissions by 2030. Though this will not avoid climate change, we have known this to be the case for many years. Hence, no surprise, and I worry that this will be construed as hopelessness or failure. If there is a real reduction by 2030, and we have avoided that descent to the Dark Ages, this will be an amazing achievement. “

Two students from the University of Michigan received a scholarship from Weather Underground to attend the Paris meetings: Lizz Ultee and Matt Irish. Lizz Ultee, a doctoral candidate, is studying how glaciers contribute to global mean sea level rise. She values a holistic, justice-centered approach to her work and looks forward to learning how natural science research is translated into worldwide policy in the UNFCCC process. Matt is finishing up an undergraduate degree studying climate science and how our understanding of climate change is informing the transition toward cleaner energy systems.


Figure 5. Lizz Ultee (left) and Matt Irish (right).

Lizz sent us these initial thoughts from Paris on Monday:

"I’ve been deeply impressed by the organization of the COP today. We were expecting long lines and the assorted delays usually associated with convening tens of thousands of people in one (extremely secure) place, but thus far we have passed quite smoothly almost everywhere. Dozens of security lanes minimized the delays of x-ray and metal detector screening at the entrance, and the huge site seems to spread people out. There are 40,000 people here, but I’ve only been encountering a few hundred--rather than a few thousand--at a time. It all feels very well planned and managed. The morning started off with the opening ceremony and leaders’ statements. Many statements were in French or a mixture of French and English, with live translation provided via the headphones I’ve always seen on videos of UN proceedings. I was disproportionately excited to get to use live-translation headphones for the first time in my life. Observers were not permitted in the main hall and had to watch via CCTV in an adjoining room, but I suppose security has to be at its tightest for the largest-ever gathering of world heads of state. Having 150 heads of state together in one room would be powerful under any circumstances--literally, it is an unprecedented concentration of power--but it makes an especially stirring kick-off to the hard work of COP21.”

Lizz and Matt will be posting updates to the website Climate Blue and tweeting from @climateblue as COP21 progresses.

Bob Henson


Climate Change Politics Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Bob...
Thanks for the update. Let's hope the talks yield real changes.
Thanks Bob..Bill Gates was on the tube this morning with a plan to help reduce co2...Excerpt from August of this year...

I do see some encouraging progress on climate and energy. Environmental advocates deserve credit for getting climate change so high on the worlds agenda. Many countries are committing to put policies in place that reflect the impact of greenhouse gases. The cost of solar photovoltaic cells has dropped by nearly a factor of ten over the past decade, and batteries that store energy created by intermittent sources like solar and wind are getting more powerful and less expensive. Since 2007 the United States has reduced its greenhouse gas emissions nearly 10%. Since 1990 Germany has reduced its energy-sector emissions by more than 20%.
Kudos to WU for sponsoring those scholarships. I hope that the energy and optimism seen in the faces of the recipients is reenforced by meaningful outcomes from the conference.
Greetings TO All! A surface trough is expected to generate an increase in cloudiness, & showers in the Lesser Antilles as it's center makes a pass near Martinique and Dominica.
Based on the radar imagery there seems to be a bit of a pronounced spin near a LLC Approaching the Dominica / Martinique area.
link:http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-a ntilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles

Also, praying for much Success with the Paris Climate talks...
May God Richly Bless us All!
Until the driving force of this Planet becomes something other than the gathering of wealth by Men and Nations, nothing will change.


2015, The Year the Climate Struck back..



Not much on acceptance some are.

Very enlightening comment.
Presentation is Key
Hopefully something promising and impactful is agreed upon during these meetings. Otherwise, the outlook on the leading emitters of carbon coming together on an agreement looks pretty grim.
Hopefully all this is in the right direction, but looks to be a painful slow process that is going to take quite awhile.
The time to take serious actions on mitigating climate change was 40 years ago. Had we have done so then the efforts required to mitigate the warming of the climate would have been far cheaper and easier to accomplish. Let us hope that all nations take to heart that serious mitigation efforts need to take place now. The longer we wait, the more difficult and expensive any mitigation efforts would become and, perhaps, would prove futile. The longer we wait, the more expensive and necessary adaption efforts will become. Keep your eyes on the Arctic region. When we begin to see large methane plumes enter the atmosphere then we will know that any of our efforts made going forward will be futile. We would no longer have any ability to control what happens from that point on. A wise person begins to apply the brakes long before they reach the cliff. A foolhardy person waits to slam on the brakes at the edge of the cliff. They would be hoping that the brakes hold and that an uncontrollable slide does not begin.
Thanks, Bob. I'm sitting on the edge of my seat.
Breaking News Winter Storm Delphi is named.
Quoting 12. Some1Has2BtheRookie:

The time to take serious actions on mitigating climate change was 40 years ago. Had we have done so then the efforts required to mitigate the warming of the climate would have been far cheaper and easier to accomplish. Let us hope that all nations take to heart that serious mitigation efforts need to take place now. The longer we wait, the more difficult and expensive any mitigation efforts would become and, perhaps, would prove futile. The longer we wait, the more expensive and necessary adaption efforts will become. Keep your eyes on the Arctic region. When we begin to see large methane plumes enter the atmosphere then we will know that any of our efforts made going forward will be futile. We would no longer have any ability to control what happens from that point on. A wise person begins to apply the brakes long before they reach the cliff. A foolhardy person waits to slam on the brakes at the edge of the cliff. They would be hoping that the brakes hold and that an uncontrollable slide does not begin.
Something may have been done decades ago had all the data not been withheld from the public...Better now than never...
Quoting 12. Some1Has2BtheRookie:

The time to take serious actions on mitigating climate change was 40 years ago. Had we have done so then the efforts required to mitigate the warming of the climate would have been far cheaper and easier to accomplish. Let us hope that all nations take to heart that serious mitigation efforts need to take place now. The longer we wait, the more difficult and expensive any mitigation efforts would become and, perhaps, would prove futile. The longer we wait, the more expensive and necessary adaption efforts will become. Keep your eyes on the Arctic region. When we begin to see large methane plumes enter the atmosphere then we will know that any of our efforts made going forward will be futile. We would no longer have any ability to control what happens from that point on. A wise person begins to apply the brakes long before they reach the cliff. A foolhardy person waits to slam on the brakes at the edge of the cliff. They would be hoping that the brakes hold and that an uncontrollable slide does not begin.


All going to come down to economic fallout. You have many people that are not going to accept this and others that do and it's going to be a tug of war, and with that is going to be chaos while the arctic melts away and oceans rise. Interesting times ahead coming.
Quoting 7. RitaEvac:

Is that a nose ring on Lizz? smh


These days (actually for decades now) even nice kids feel obligated to do things to their bodies to avoid looking like a regular person. Its negative to be that. Its more acceptable to look like Kenyan Tribesman with holes in their ear than without. Even bringing this up will make others pass judgement on you for being ... judgemental. Enough off topic. They look like nice kids that will set an example for others in living a low carbon lifestyle.
Quoting 16. RitaEvac:



All going to come down to economic fallout. You have many people that are not going to accept this and others that do and it's going to be a tug of war, and with that is going to be chaos while the arctic melts away and oceans rise. Interesting times ahead coming.


The most assured path towards economic collapse is to do nothing now and to just hope for the best going forward.
Quoting 16. RitaEvac:



All going to come down to economic fallout. You have many people that are not going to accept this and others that do and it's going to be a tug of war, and with that is going to be chaos while the arctic melts away and oceans rise. Interesting times ahead coming.


Im sure your "acceptance speech" is muted by your comment on attire.

So your status here is diminished tenfold, easily.

Adio'
Thank You Mr. Henson; will only add that China, as usual, is hedging their bet on both sides of the coin. One of the primary CO2 emitters at present but also one of the world leaders in term of clean power technology (many of the wind turbines in use around the world are manufactured in China). Will be interesting to see what their ultimate positions will be on a pending agreement.

Haze from coal and other fossil fuels dims the sky in Changchun, China
Haze from coal and other fossil fuels dims the sky in Changchun, China.

Quoting 19. Patrap:



Im sure your "acceptance speech" is muted by your comment on attire.

So your status here is diminished tenfold, easily.

Adio'


What comment is that Pat? lol, it was a question comment if you read it, followed by SMH (shaking my head) there wasn't any criticizing. I do it everyday when I hear people talk AND their attire! nothing wrong with that at all.
Quoting 20. weathermanwannabe:

Thank You Mr. Henson; will only add that China, as usual, is hedging their bet on both sides of the coin. One of the primary CO2 emitters at present but also one of the world leaders in term of clean power technology (many of the wind turbines in use around the world are manufactured in China). Will be interesting to see what their ultimate positions will be on a pending agreement.


China, earlier this year, has entered into an agreement with the U.S. for both countries to begin reducing their CO2 emissions going forward. China said that it would do so by 2040. Too little, too late? Perhaps, but it is a move that China had not considered to make before this agreement with the U.S..
Chinese Report on Climate Change Depicts somber scenario's

by Chris Buckley NYT

snip' Yet even if China and other big powers agreed to stringent cuts in greenhouse gases, the effects of climate change are already coursing through the environment. The report urges more spending on preparing to cope with increasingly frequent and extreme droughts, floods and heat waves.

Rising sea levels are among the threats that receive most attention in the report. As polar ice melts and ocean temperatures rise, seas across the world are swelling, but the changes are uneven, and the waters off China’s coast have been rising faster than the global average, the report says.

“Climate change will make the urban conurbations along the coast the regions most affected by climate change nationwide,” it says. “Some cities may even face risks of massive disasters that are hard to forecast.”

While there is much debate about the extent of future rises, the report cites projections that, by the end of this century, the sea off eastern China could rise between 16 and 24 inches, or 40 and 60 centimeters, compared to 20th-century averages, exposing cities like Shanghai and nearby areas to tidal inundations and more severe damage from storms and typhoons. Some projections are even higher.


“Every piece of infrastructure built on the coast is potentially vulnerable,” Isabel Hilton, the editor of Chinadialogue, a website for news and discussion of the country’s environmental challenges, said in a telephone interview. “That’s a huge amount of G.D.P. you have there.”
Quoting 7. :

Is that a nose ring on Lizz? smh
Ms Ultee is a doctoral candidate at the University of Michigan. That means she's someone we can all look up to. She's also younger than I am, which means that she'll be working on solving huge problems long after I'm gone, problems that will greatly affect my children and future grandchildren. I couldn't care less, then, if she were shaved bald, covered from head to toe in gaudy tribal tattoos, and wearing a brown Christmas sweater over a hot pink floor-length Samoan mumu covered in headshots of King Kamehameha. It's who she is and what she's doing that matters--not what she chooses to wear.

SMH...
Quoting 24. Neapolitan:

Ms Ultee is a doctoral candidate at the University of Michigan. That means she's someone we can all look up to. She's also younger than I am, which means that she'll be working on solving huge problems long after I'm gone, problems that will greatly affect my children and future grandchildren. I couldn't care less, then, if she were shaved bald, covered from head to toe in gaudy tribal tattoos, and wearing a brown Christmas sweater over a hot pink floor-length Samoan mumu covered in headshots of King Kamehameha. It's who she is and what she's doing that matters--not what she chooses to wear.

SMH...


That's the spirit Nea! Shake your head! it's a GOD giving right son.
cannot find what " SMH " means on Google......
I hope these talks help to get the UK back on track. The current government here cut subsidies for renewable energy and are phasing out coal power plants to replace them with gas powered ones (unless technology advances to make previous coal power plants cleaner, in which case they'll keep them...). It also annoys me that the green party in the UK got 1 million votes in the last election (4% of the vote) yet only got 1 seat out of 650 (4% would be 26 seats). There's just so much wrong with the UK in regards to the political system and the stance of the current government on taking action to reduce emissions it's rather infuriating.
Quoting 25. RitaEvac:



That's the spirit Nea! Shake your head! it's a GOD giving right son.
I have it now..Shake My Head...I,ll get the computer abbreviations yet....
Quoting 26. hydrus:

cannot find what " SMH " means on Google......


Google SMH urban dictionary. Urban dictionary is a great way to keep up to date with all the latest abbreviations and such. :p
smh

standard mean human?

"Shaking my Head" is the actual smh text/fb acronym.
China Chokes on Smog as World Leaders Talk Climate Change
by DAVID LOM and JULIA ZHOU


BAODING, China — As Chinese President Xi Jinping joined world leaders for the U.N. climate change summit, millions in his homeland were choking on the most severe air pollution of the year.

The air-quality index soared past 700 — well above the hazardous level — in Baoding on Monday.

urban dictionary can be downright scary sometimes -
If anything, the COP21 summit is helping to divert the media attention away from the latest Donald Trump news and towards climate change. The more media attention this topic gets worldwide, I believe the more it will help citizens demand action from their leaders. Whatever side of the coin you’re on, there are lots of benefits to lowering fossil fuels as a source of energy.
Quoting 31. Patrap:

China Chokes on Smog as World Leaders Talk Climate Change
by DAVID LOM and JULIA ZHOU


BAODING, China — As Chinese President Xi Jinping joined world leaders for the U.N. climate change summit, millions in his homeland were choking on the most severe air pollution of the year.

The air-quality index soared past 700 — well above the hazardous level — in Baoding on Monday.


Well above hazardous........geez..
Quoting 34. hydrus:

Well above hazardous........geez..


That's some bad stuff there
If we continue to elect a majority of Republicans to the House and Senate nationally and on a state levels, we will never reach any of these CO2 reduction goals. If we then elect a Republican President on top of this, we'll have doomed any chance at change. Look at the big personal donors and Big Business, they are poised to pump a record by far up and away into this election cycle. The why? They know if they can get their patsies into office, especially the big one, they will have won. These CO2 regulations will never happen. They have swept Democrats out off office at the state level at alarming rates, they have taken the House and Senate nationally, and are one big win next November from this being game over. Look at Trump, Carson, and Ted Cruz; they are openly lying all the time and much of America is just eating it up. Even though this is so easily verifiable. The truth simply does not matter to them. Fantasy and fear leads these American's political thinking. When the truth simply doesn't matter to over 100 million Americans, it makes honestly and progressively dealing with AGW very difficult.
(sarc) Everyone should know that human-enhanced climate change isn't happening until you see it happening in your own back yard.(/sarc) Unfortunately, climate is one of those things that, once you see it changing worldwide, it's too late to do much about it except adapt. The naysayers must have plans to make a pile of money from the problems that will be caused by climate change, or they wouldn't be so against doing anything about it.
GFS & Canadian showing a very high signal for major rainfall accumulations across FL over the next week. Reason for this is the southern jet now beginning to effect the weather pattern across FL so expect rainy weather later this week and potentially windy as well come this weekend as a low develops along the East Coast of FL.

Quoting 36. DeepSeaRising:

If we continue to elect a majority of Republicans to the House and Senate nationally and on a state levels, we will never reach any of these CO2 reduction goals. If we then elect a Republican President on top of this, we'll have doomed any chance at change. Look at the big personal donors and Big Business, they are posed to pump a record by far up and away into this election cycle. The why? They know if they can get their patsies into office, especially the big one, they will have won. These CO2 regulations will never happen. They have swept Democrats out off office in the state level at alarming rates, they have taken the House and Senate nationally, and are one big win next November from this being game over. Look at Trump, Carson, and Ted Cruz; they are openly lying all the time and much of America is just eating it up. Even though this is so easily verifiable. The truth simply does not matter to them. Fantasy and fear leads these American's political thinking. When the truth simply doesn't matter to over 100 million Americans, it makes honestly and progressively dealing with AGW very difficult.


Two years ago I had decided to never vote for any policy maker that will only exhibit an 18th century understanding of the 21st century Science. This is without regards of which political party they would represent.
40. ADCS
Quoting 15. hydrus:

Something may have been done decades ago had all the data not been withheld from the public...Better now than never...


Doubtful. Jimmy Carter got thrown out of office, in part, for telling people they needed to turn down their thermostats and wear a sweater about 40 years ago. People instinctively do not want to conserve energy if there is a surplus of it.
Quoting 15. hydrus:

Something may have been done decades ago had all the data not been withheld from the public...Better now than never...


The data pretty much matched what scientists outside of Exxon already knew. It isn't remarkable at all, what is sadly remarkable is how much the readily accessible data out there has been aggressively ignored or denied. I've been generally aware of warming hypotheses sing 1969 when I was 11 and of the details
of how it would likely evolve since the mid 1980s when I was a young adult.
Quoting 37. LariAnn:

(sarc) Everyone should know that human-enhanced climate change isn't happening until you see it happening in your own back yard.(/sarc) Unfortunately, climate is one of those things that, once you see it changing worldwide, it's too late to do much about it except adapt. The naysayers must have plans to make a pile of money from the problems that will be caused by climate change, or they wouldn't be so against doing anything about it.


I think the goal now is to keep us under 2C and deal with those repercussions. Unfortunately, a lot of the rise in temps is already built into the equation. Reductions now would help greatly and are needed to meet that goal. 2C is way better to deal with at the societal level than 3C both cost and consequence wise.
Quoting 26. hydrus:

cannot find what " SMH " means on Google......


I think it's the next step before FP (Facepalm]

Quoting 42. Naga5000:



I think the goal now is to keep us under 2C and deal with those repercussions. Unfortunately, a lot of the rise in temps is already built into the equation. Reductions now would help greatly and are needed to meet that goal. 2C is way better to deal with at the societal level than 3C both cost and consequence wise.
Yep..The benefits for making such changes are almost infinite where the environment is concerned. The living things within will no doubt benefit as well.
What a shame California is in the process of closing down the last of its actual sources of clean energy, nuclear, and our supposedly green Governor uses state resources to prospect for oil on his family properties, what a fraud.
Quoting 40. ADCS:



Doubtful. Jimmy Carter got thrown out of office, in part, for telling people they needed to turn down their thermostats and wear a sweater about 40 years ago. People instinctively do not want to conserve energy if there is a surplus of it.
Much of that was due to the energy crisis just before he was elected, but there were other reasons he said it was wise to conserve. Those who didnt conserve or feel the need were likely were not affected by the countries energy problems..I mention in passing the President Carter was not thrown out, but lost the election by a huge margin in electoral votes, but not as much by popular vote..Young folks here may get the wrong impression.
Dear great-grandchildren,
Looking back on my generation, I hope you are doing so with thanks. Having come to the brink of the abyss, I hope we turned from our profit above all ways. If you are looking back so, it means that we turned from the great corporate greed, overconsumption, and profiteering that defined our generation. We stopped ourselves from the destroying of the planet. If your looking back with the question, "How could you let this happen to us?", then I'm very sorry. Not enough cared, the powers that be were just too great, and while the truth was readily available; far to few cared to consume it because we were far to well entertained. My generation did not say no to the lining of the pockets of the very few at the very top. We didn't care enough for the people, plants, and all other life diversity across the planet.
Quoting 37. LariAnn:
(sarc) Everyone should know that human-enhanced climate change isn't happening until you see it happening in your own back yard.(/sarc) Unfortunately, climate is one of those things that, once you see it changing worldwide, it's too late to do much about it except adapt. The naysayers must have plans to make a pile of money from the problems that will be caused by climate change, or they wouldn't be so against doing anything about it.


You have hit the proverbial nail on the head! I dislike the word "side" for this topic, but unfortunately, it works and each side in this discussions suspects the other side of conniving to make $$$$ on a particular solution. Until we can have an informative, educational discussion without using disparaging words and come to an executable compromise, status quo. Fossil fuels will continue to make money on one side (although, I would wager some of the loudest town criers in here have fossil fuel profits in their 401K/Investments) and those pushing for legal changes will continue to posture to profit from it if/when it happens (although, I would also wager some of the loudest deniers would jump on that bandwagon in a tick)...
When one begins to see the posts about Political ideology in this entry, please refer to post # 6 here.

You will feel better, or not.

: P
Thank you Dr.Masters and Mr.Henson.

The announcement I was going to make is that this will be my last winter for a while in the D.C area.Due to my field of work I will be relocated down to Texas.So before I leave the area I want to see a least one good snow storm as a present from nature this winter.
Quoting 6. Patrap:

Until the driving force of this Planet becomes something other than the gathering of wealth by Men and Nations, nothing will change.


2015, The Year the Climate Struck back..






2015 the year Super El-Nino came.
Thanks for the Update Mr. Henson....
Lets hope there is a significant impact on climate change.

We have reduced about as much as we can on the footprint front. And we continue to encourage our family and friends to do so with helpful info (shaving many dollars a month of the electrical bill is a hit)

The only ones that basically tell us to go pack sand are the boomers and such. Not sure why though.


Maybe just maybe something really good will come out of this or at least a framework to really push it forward without the US balking like we have in the past.
Quoting 51. washingtonian115:

Thank you Dr.Masters and Mr.Henson.

The announcement I was going to make is that this will be my last winter for a while in the D.C area.Due to my field of work I will be relocated down to Texas.So before I leave the area I want to see a least one good snow storm as a present from nature this winter.

Welcome to mostly snow-free Texas!
Quoting 56. Grothar:


Perfect!! The boat to breakfast with the grandkids and the golf shall continue!! Thanks Gro...
Quoting 41. georgevandenberghe:



The data pretty much matched what scientists outside of Exxon already knew. It isn't remarkable at all, what is sadly remarkable is how much the readily accessible data out there has been aggressively ignored or denied. I've been generally aware of warming hypotheses sing 1969 when I was 11 and of the details
of how it would likely evolve since the mid 1980s when I was a young adult.
I usually agree with you, but this comment is a bit off from what really happened back then. For one, the data scientists had back then is vastly less then what we have now, and the number of scientists researching AGW was far less. Secondly, evidence that has only recently surfaced about the oil companies data on adverse effects was purposely withheld, meaning that whether scientists were reporting on the issue or not, should have never been held from us in the first place. Had they released the data then, more would have likely been done to stop it, or at least research the issue further.
Quoting 57. NttyGrtty:



Perfect!! The boat to breakfast with the grandkids and the golf shall continue!! Thanks Gro...
That would be nice..Although I believe there will be some changes to it.
Quoting 59. hydrus:
That would be nice..Although I believe there will be some changes to it.


Yeah, I know, but Gro knows stuff so I'm going to dream for now...
Crazy humans won't be doing much of anything en masse until that delicate point between disasters being rare and disasters being "the way things are these days." I'm pretty tired of the circling of the bandwagons.

I'm also tired of daily lows of 9F. The cloud patterns are different today, so maybe today really was the last of it.

Here's one for all you angry young men.
Reading though this and thinking back over more than 60 years, it seems that at best what can be achieved is the equivalent of stopping throwing gasoline on the forest fires and just leaving them to burn out.

On the photos from China of the pollution. Back in the 50s some mornings when going to school the smog was so thick in the North of England that we could not clearly see our feet and we had to keep an hand on the walls to stop losing out path on the way to school. The smog was even in the classrooms and the lights had to be on all day. So China is only following in the footsteps of the English with its industrial revolution.
Quoting 24. Neapolitan:

Ms Ultee is a doctoral candidate at the University of Michigan. That means she's someone we can all look up to. She's also younger than I am, which means that she'll be working on solving huge problems long after I'm gone, problems that will greatly affect my children and future grandchildren. I couldn't care less, then, if she were shaved bald, covered from head to toe in gaudy tribal tattoos, and wearing a brown Christmas sweater over a hot pink floor-length Samoan mumu covered in headshots of King Kamehameha. It's who she is and what she's doing that matters--not what she chooses to wear.

SMH...

Neo, you write so visually. Sometimes when my hands are full, smh works for me when I have a head cold. I hope it works for anyone with a nose ring, I would hate to visualize that. :)
Thanks for the updates guys and gals!
Quoting 60. NttyGrtty:



Yeah, I know, but Gro knows stuff so I'm going to dream for now...
This is true..I think that the Nino will have the similar effect, but I also believe that SSW will be a player this year. Nino usually boosts the tropospheric/stratospheric transfer, which can weaken the Polar vort causing it to collapse, bringing very cold air south over the U.S. Add that with the potent subtropical jet, strong winter storms should occur. I should add that if there is no SSW, we may have one of the mildest winters ever over the east half..I have to feel it to believe it...:)
Quoting 55. Greg01:


Welcome to mostly snow-free Texas!


As long as he's not moving to Amarillo, which averages 17.9" of snow annually.
Quoting 52. StormTrackerScott:



2015 the year Super El-Nino came.

Whether it will be super event or even stronger one remains to be seen. You have forecasted everything right this year though, including the anomaly in nino 4 surging towards 2 C and the event being more center based, great job.
This may be shaping up to be one of warmest and snow free winters in Wisconsin history. Our winters have flipped from extreme cold, extreme warmth, record snow, and near record low snow in the last fifteen years.
My meteorological ponderings for today is what kind of heat waves will be hitting troubled urban zones in the US this coming summer? What happened in Ferguson was, frankly, rather low-key compared to the Rodney King riots. There's a lot of ramping up in rhetoric going on, and I'm not optimistic about mob mentality as things are being pushed to all cultural and political facets via the impulsive social media outlets.

I dunno, a new field? Sociometeorology?
Quoting 51. washingtonian115:

Thank you Dr.Masters and Mr.Henson.

The announcement I was going to make is that this will be my last winter for a while in the D.C area.Due to my field of work I will be relocated down to Texas.So before I leave the area I want to see a least one good snow storm as a present from nature this winter.


Please, at least tell it is to Austin!
Quoting 64. tampabaymatt:




A little spritz in Nor Cal.........we will take it! Just idling my time down here in Soo Cal til the jet dips south......c'mon jet....c'mon jet....c'mon jet!
Quoting 58. hydrus:

I usually agree with you, but this comment is a bit off from what really happened back then. For one, the data scientists had back then is vastly less then what we have now, and the number of scientists researching AGW was far less. Secondly, evidence that has only recently surfaced about the oil companies data on adverse effects was purposely withheld, meaning that whether scientists were reporting on the issue or not, should have never be held from us in the first place. Had they released the data then, more would have likely been done to stop or at least research the issue further.


Vastly more data yes, More scientists researching it yes. The fact that Exxon (and probably others) had this internally affirming what external researchers also knew invalidates any defense they didn't know.. yes disgusting especially when they made a business decision to suppress it.

The conclusions however have not changed since the 70s, only some of the potential mitigating factors i.e. cloud feedback, have been found not to be mitigating and those hopes thus dashed.

You are right though, if the oil companies had come out with this we'd be a lot further along on mitigation.

And what has changed since the 70s is the steadily increasing intensity of denial and obfuscation as the facts become increasingly clear with time and accumulating evidence.
Quoting 69. DeepSeaRising:

This may be shaping up to be one of warmest and snow free winters in Wisconsin history. Our winters have flipped from extreme cold, extreme warmth, record snow, and near record low snow in the last fifteen years.


It is still November!!
(Posted at the end of the last blog after the new one came out)
A new Washington Post article about the Climate Change Machine is, while a bit slanted, very informative, and nicely illustrates the links among the various aspects of the problem. Link And the graphic is really fun!
Quoting 67. Sfloridacat5:



As long as he's not moving to Amarillo, which averages 17.9" of snow annually.


BTW that's more than DC city (suburbs get more)
Quoting 74. georgevandenberghe:



It is still November!!
Yep..and me own little forecast has Wisconsin getting plenty of snow this year.
Quoting 68. NoobDave:


Whether it will be super event or even stronger one remains to be seen. You have forecasted everything right this year though, including the anomaly in nino 4 surging towards 2 C and the event being more center based, great job.


If them K Waves keep coming .... Nino 1+2 may be the hotttest......is it not up over 2C now?
Quoting 71. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Please, at least tell it is to Austin!


I'll be in Austin Saturday to watch my daughter graduate from U.T. I'm hoping the weather will be nice there this weekend.
georgevandenberghe- SeedsOfChange is having a 30% everything sale today, all day, just put in FLASH30 at the checkout code.

Cause it's gonna be a nice spring for gardening. I hope.
This is the city Mrs. G. is from in Sweden (Helsingborg) just a ferry ride away called Helsingor in Denmark.





A total of 75,000 people are believed to have lost power over the weekend, with energy companies suggesting it could take several days to restore some services. However by mid-morning on Monday it was estimated that only 20,000 people were yet to be reconnected.

A camp for asylum seekers in Revingehed in Skåne was among the places damaged in the chaos, with five out of six tents collapsing during the windy weather. Refugees had not yet moved into the temporary accommodation but staff working on the project said that Storm Gorm's impact could further delay their arrival.
Is it the El Nino that causes the Polar Jet and Sub Tropical Jet to kinda merge with a double whammy effect? Southern Jet adds moist sub tropical air and cold air from the Polar Jet? Or when they do not merge we here in California get the sub tropical jet pointed at us, very wet Pineapple Express moisture plumes, high elevation snow events or snow melts in some cases, hence the El Nino floods. When only the polar jet, the storms are USUALLY weaker(with some strong ones thrown in) moisture limited storms or cutoff lows that drift/dig down to where the sub tropical jet is active in the Pacific. Did all this make sense.......it did when I typed it but now....Im not so sure....LOL
Quoting 81. Grothar:

This is the city Mrs. G. is from in Sweden (Helsingborg) just a ferry ride away called Helsingor in Denmark.





A total of 75,000 people are believed to have lost power over the weekend, with energy companies suggesting it could take several days to restore some services. However by mid-morning on Monday it was estimated that only 20,000 people were yet to be reconnected.

A camp for asylum seekers in Revingehed in Skåne was among the places damaged in the chaos, with five out of six tents collapsing during the windy weather. Refugees had not yet moved into the temporary accommodation but staff working on the project said that Storm Gorm's impact could further delay their arrival.
Resembles ef-1 damage, or even a weak 2...
Quoting 81. Grothar:

This is the city Mrs. G. is from in Sweden (Helsingborg) just a ferry ride away called Helsingor in Denmark.





A total of 75,000 people are believed to have lost power over the weekend, with energy companies suggesting it could take several days to restore some services. However by mid-morning on Monday it was estimated that only 20,000 people were yet to be reconnected.

A camp for asylum seekers in Revingehed in Sk%uFFFDne was among the places damaged in the chaos, with five out of six tents collapsing during the windy weather. Refugees had not yet moved into the temporary accommodation but staff working on the project said that Storm Gorm's impact could further delay their arrival.


Yikes! Hope they are all ok! What are the low temps like? Id like you to e-mail me a pic of Mr and Mrs G
Quoting 84. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Yikes! Hope they are all ok! What are the low temps like? Id like you to e-mail me a pic of Mr and Mrs G


The temperatures a much milder in southern Sweden. It usually stays around 30F in the winter, but the summers can be pleasant. Storms like this are quite rare.
Quoting 74. georgevandenberghe:



It is still November!!


Indeed, agree with Hydrus about the snow and I think we may get wammied in January or February. Been the pattern past decade here, well above average few months of winter and below average few months. Just with this pattern that's locked in and El-Nino slow to dissipate "think" a record warm winter is a possibility. Lot of moisture last sixty days in the Upper Midwest which often spells for big winter snows. All I really know is it's going to be one interesting winter either way.
Quoting 86. DeepSeaRising:



Indeed, agree with Hydrus about the snow and I think we may get wammied in January or February. Been the pattern past decade here, well above average few months of winter and below average few months. Just with this pattern that's locked in and El-Nino slow to dissipate "think" a record warm winter is a possibility. Lot of moisture last sixty days in the Upper Midwest which often spells for big winter snows. All I really know is it's going to be one interesting winter either way.


Yeah we could stay around 3C until Christmas for Nino 3.4 before dropping off some. Either way as you said things are about to get interesting as all the models except the Euro now are really dropping a lot of rain across FL Thursday thru next Monday. Totals could get down right excessive infact. Well see if these trends hold.
88. ADCS
Quoting 47. hydrus:

Much of that was due to the energy crisis just before he was elected, but there were other reasons he said it was wise to conserve. Those who didnt conserve or feel the need were likely were not affected by the countries energy problems..I mention in passing the President Carter was not thrown out, but lost the election by a huge margin in electoral votes, but not as much by popular vote..Young folks here may get the wrong impression.


No question that Carter was dead on, and what he said was solid, and even conservative advice, but that doesn't mean it was a message that most people wanted to hear.
Quoting 86. DeepSeaRising:



Indeed, agree with Hydrus about the snow and I think we may get wammied in January or February. Been the pattern past decade here, well above average few months of winter and below average few months. Just with this pattern that's locked in and El-Nino slow to dissipate "think" a record warm winter is a possibility. Lot of moisture last sixty days in the Upper Midwest which often spells for big winter snows. All I really know is it's going to be one interesting winter either way.
I think you will be whammed starting Mid December.
During a Moderate El Nino year of 2009-2010 several locations in California set records for lowest barometric pressure. Some information from Dr Masters himself. San Diego's record that day was 29.28 inches or 991.5mb, not enough to scare any east coasters or Floridians away..lol. That was Jan 21,2010 and broke the previous record of 29.37 or set March 3 1983 during the 1982-1983 strong El Nino year. I remember the day well, water spouts, rain and 60mph winds along the coast.


All-time lowest-pressure recorded for several CA locations

Posted by JAC on 1/22/2010, 6:54 am

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
920 AM PST THU JAN 21 2010

...ALL-TIME RECORD LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE SET AT EUREKA CA...

AN ALL-TIME RECORD LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE OF 28.90 INCHES (979
MILLIBARS) WAS SET AT EUREKA CA YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE LONG
STANDING RECORD OF 29.91 INCHES WHICH WAS MEASURED IN FEBRUARY OF 1891.


$$
CLARK

=====

RECORD EVENT REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
825 AM PST THU JAN 21 2010

...PRELIMINARY RECORD LOWEST BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AT LOS ANGELES
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...

AT 820 AM PST...THE BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AT LOS ANGELES INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT FELL TO 29.20 INCHES OF MERCURY...OR 988.8 MB. THIS BREAKS
THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOWEST BAROMETRIC PRESSURE READING OF 29.25
INCHES...OR 990.6 MB...SET ON JANUARY 17TH 1988. IT IS LIKELY THAT
THE PRESSURE WILL FALL EVEN FURTHER THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THE
RECORD WILL CONTINUE TO MONITORED.

PRESSURE DATA RECORDS AT LOS ANGELES AIRPORT DATE BACK TO 1931.

$$

BRUNO/RORKE/MEIER


=====

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
849 AM PST THU JAN 21 2010

...LOWEST MINIMUM PRESSURE RECORD BROKEN ON JANUARY 21...


THE LOWEST SEA LEVEL PRESSURE RECORDED AT SAN DIEGO LINDBERGH FIELD
IS 29.28 INCHES AT 0651 AM TODAY.
THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 29.37 INCHES IN MARCH 3 1983.



The %u201Cstrongest winter storm in at least 140 years,%u201D swept through the Southwestern United States last week, %u201Cbringing deadly flooding, tornadoes, hail, hurricane force winds, and blizzard conditions.%u201D Rain dumped on Los Angeles, San Diego, and Phoenix, as mountains received up to four feet of snow. Wind gusts exceeding 90 miles per hour, tornadoes, and water spouts spun off the monster storm. Over 159,000 people lost power in the storm%u2019s wake. Meteorologist Dr. Jeff Masters wrote on Friday that the storm was %u201Ctruly epic%u201D:
We expect to get powerful winter storms affecting the Southwest U.S. during strong El Ni%uFFFDo events, but yesterday%u2019s storm was truly epic in its size and intensity. The storm set all-time low pressure records over roughly 10 %u2013 15% of the U.S.-over southern Oregon, and most of California, Nevada, Arizona, and Utah.
%u201CCalifornia has been pounded by a series of winter storms and rains,%u201D said Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger during a news conference in Los Angeles. %u201CThe storms brought wind gusts of up to 80 miles [an hour] across the mountains and the canyons, major highways and roads were closed, flights have been grounded, thousands of homes and businesses lost power, more than 2,100 homes were evacuated. Sadly and unfortunately, some people lost their lives.%u201D
However, this record storm is only a preview of what is to come in a warmer world. The USGS Multi Hazards Demonstration Project at the California Institute of Technology is developing the ARkStorm scenario to %u201Ctackle what would happen if a series of powerful storms lashed at the state for 23 days%u201C:
In the scenario, the storm system forms in the Pacific and slams into the West Coast with hurricane-force winds, hitting Southern California the hardest. After more than a week of ferocious weather, the system stalls for a few days. Another storm brews offshore and this time pummels Northern California. Such a monster storm could unleash as much as 8 feet of rain over three weeks in some areas, said research meteorologist Martin Ralph with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, who is part of the project. It makes the latest Pacific storm system look like a drop in the bucket.

What will the El Nino of 2015-2016 do to California? The jury is still out..........stay tuned!
I am in the blue line above (I am in the science camp; recognizing that fossil fuel combustion is the primary mover of warming and subsequent climate effects).

I regret being the pessimist, but someone should point out the reality. So I will. Even if total success were to flow out of Paris, these "solutions" will not change the future . What hubris...what ignorance, that we should think that these puny efforts will change the massively complex systems that operate on our planet.













Quoting 36. DeepSeaRising:

If we continue to elect a majority of Republicans to the House and Senate nationally and on a state levels, we will never reach any of these CO2 reduction goals. If we then elect a Republican President on top of this, we'll have doomed any chance at change. Look at the big personal donors and Big Business, they are poised to pump a record by far up and away into this election cycle. The why? They know if they can get their patsies into office, especially the big one, they will have won. These CO2 regulations will never happen. They have swept Democrats out off office at the state level at alarming rates, they have taken the House and Senate nationally, and are one big win next November from this being game over. Look at Trump, Carson, and Ted Cruz; they are openly lying all the time and much of America is just eating it up. Even though this is so easily verifiable. The truth simply does not matter to them. Fantasy and fear leads these American's political thinking. When the truth simply doesn't matter to over 100 million Americans, it makes honestly and progressively dealing with AGW very difficult.


What we have now is failure to communicate with all parties in the political theater. At this late stage of the game the only change for the good of our planet will be in more monies spent. To divide science from politics is only a illusion, brought on by big corporate donations to universities. All honesty will prevail the time when we all find out it's too late to save the human species. That time may be closer than many know.
Quoting 88. ADCS:



No question that Carter was dead on, and what he said was solid, and even conservative advice, but that doesn't mean it was a message that most people wanted to hear.
Thats politics. Many people I have talked to about President Carter felt he was dealt an unwinnable hand so to speak..Jimmy Carter is a very intelligent, good natured man, and think overall a good President. He graduated 60th out of 820 midshipmen in the class of 1946 at the U.S Naval Academy in Annapolis with a Bachelor of Science degree. He also worked under Adm. Hyman Rickover, which was not even a remotely easy thing to do.
Quoting 94. tampabaymatt:




Bone dry in Soo Cal til the 10th of December per GFS (1 slight chance of drizzle) c'mon jet....c'mon jet.......c'mon jet!!!
A misty rain building across Orlando.

ULL and troughiness bringing life threatening mudslides to Haiti and surrounding areas. This one is going to be a slow mover and could blob.
Quoting 93. hydrus:

Thats politics. Many people I have talked to about President Carter felt he was dealt an unwinnable hand so to speak..Jimmy Carter is a very intelligent, good natured man, and think overall a good President. He graduated 60th out of 820 midshipmen in the class of 1946 at the U.S Naval Academy in Annapolis with a Bachelor of Science degree. He also worked under Adm. Hyman Rickover, which was not even a remotely easy thing to do.


There's a big difference between being right and being persuasive. I would argue Carter was a great man, very prescient about a lot of things, but also a lousy president simply because he lacked the political skill to win over the American public during a difficult stretch. Reagan, by contrast, was an exceptionally good politician. I say that as someone who was very disappointed with the result of the 1980 election.
Quoting 95. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Bone dry in Soo Cal til the 10th of December per GFS (1 slight chance of drizzle) c'mon jet....c'mon jet.......c'mon jet!!!


We could use some El Nino rains in the Tampa Bay area. My October rainfall total was 1.89” and should wrap up November with 1.23”. After an insanely wet summer, things are starting to get dry around here.
Quoting 93. hydrus:

Thats politics. Many people I have talked to about President Carter felt he was dealt an unwinnable hand so to speak..Jimmy Carter is a very intelligent, good natured man, and think overall a good President. He graduated 60th out of 820 midshipmen in the class of 1946 at the U.S Naval Academy in Annapolis with a Bachelor of Science degree. He also worked under Adm. Hyman Rickover, which was not even a remotely easy thing to do.


I liked President Carter. I think what lost him the election was a combo of 3 things. That "National Malaise" speech and that the Iran hostages rescue mission failed and the economy with high interest rates. IMO it has been all downhill since.
101. flsky
Quoting 62. PlazaRed:

Reading though this and thinking back over more than 60 years, it seems that at best what can be achieved is the equivalent of stopping throwing gasoline on the forest fires and just leaving them to burn out.

On the photos from China of the pollution. Back in the 50s some mornings when going to school the smog was so thick in the North of England that we could not clearly see our feet and we had to keep an hand on the walls to stop losing out path on the way to school. The smog was even in the classrooms and the lights had to be on all day. So China is only following in the footsteps of the English with its industrial revolution.


I remember when I was in elementary school, my lungs would ache when I played on the playground. This was in 1961 in Long Beach, CA.
Tampa Bay area

Quoting 51. washingtonian115:

Thank you Dr.Masters and Mr.Henson.

The announcement I was going to make is that this will be my last winter for a while in the D.C area.Due to my field of work I will be relocated down to Texas.So before I leave the area I want to see a least one good snow storm as a present from nature this winter.


Should you be moving to south Texas, bring pictures of snow with you. It does snow here, but your memories of such events would melt between snowfalls. Should you be moving to the Texas panhandle then you can leave your pictures of snow behind. You be given ample opportunities to take new pictures of snow.

Welcome to Texas!, when you get here. This state is big enough to experience just about any weather situation you wish to be in. You just have to be at the right place and at the right time. Bring your car. You are not going to walk across Texas. Well, you could, if you can haul enough to last you a couple of weeks. :) getting across Houston in a car can turn into a day trip
Quoting 100. HurricaneHunterJoe:



I liked President Carter. I think what lost him the election was a combo of 3 things. That "National Malaise" speech and that the Iran hostages rescue mission failed and the economy with high interest rates. IMO it has been all downhill since.
Sometimes good leaders take the risk of doing something good, only to have it come back to bite them on the butt later. Risk is a accepted part of leadership.
Quoting 99. tampabaymatt:



We could use some El Nino rains in the Tampa Bay area. My October rainfall total was 1.89” and should wrap up November with 1.23”. After an insanely wet summer, things are starting to get dry around here.


We had ok rains in November in San Diego County. The border of Baja and California seems to be the bottom of the trof where most ULL's and associated short waves move through, hence San Diego County has had higher rains than LA, Orange,Riverside and other counties in Soo Cal. San Diego County received between 1-2 inches last month while the other counties had 0-.50" amounts. San Diego has been the lucky location since May and set quite a few rainfall records since May. You know what they say.....It's LOCATION.....LOCATION.......LOCATION!
Quoting 36. DeepSeaRising:

If we continue to elect a majority of Republicans to the House and Senate nationally and on a state levels, we will never reach any of these CO2 reduction goals. If we then elect a Republican President on top of this, we'll have doomed any chance at change. Look at the big personal donors and Big Business, they are poised to pump a record by far up and away into this election cycle. The why? They know if they can get their patsies into office, especially the big one, they will have won. These CO2 regulations will never happen. They have swept Democrats out off office at the state level at alarming rates, they have taken the House and Senate nationally, and are one big win next November from this being game over. Look at Trump, Carson, and Ted Cruz; they are openly lying all the time and much of America is just eating it up. Even though this is so easily verifiable. The truth simply does not matter to them. Fantasy and fear leads these American's political thinking. When the truth simply doesn't matter to over 100 million Americans, it makes honestly and progressively dealing with AGW very difficult.

At some point the Republicans will start bashing their heads against the reality of anthropogenic global warming and they won't be able to maintain their intransigence. I can only hope it happens sooner rather than later. I'm encouraged by the fact that if they want to remain viable as a party they'll have to start bringing in younger voters who I believe overwhelmingly accept the reality of global warming.
Quoting 104. hydrus:

Sometimes good leaders take the risk of doing something good, only to have it come back to bite them on the butt later. Risk is a accepted part of leadership.


True enough about dat!
Quoting 102. tampabaymatt:

Tampa Bay area




Interesting split between all the models except the Euro across FL this weekend. If the rest of the model camp wins out then FL will be in for a serious amount of rain as some models show 6" to 9" from the Space Coast down to West Palm with 5" across Orlando. Euro on the other hand shows very little rain next weekend. Interesting split with all the models vrs the Euro.

Well see if the Euro holds to its forecast or gives into the rest of the model camp.



I remember when I was in elementary school, my lungs would ache when I played on the playground. This was in 1961 in Long Beach, CA. Why can't I delete this
Hi, I would love this government and the rest of the world governments to spend all this money on air and water pollution, then on something that we have no control over such as climate change. Maybe if we cleaned up the air and water, it might make a significant improvement on climate change. By the way what do you think is the carbon footprint on everyone attending the climate summit. Couldn't the same meeting be done over the internet and computer conference calls.
Quoting 109. NativeSun:


Your Comment:

Hi, I would love this government and the rest of the world governments to spend all this money on air and water pollution, then on something that we have no control over such as climate change. Maybe if we cleaned up the air and water, it might make a significant improvement on climate change. By the way what do you think is the carbon footprint on everyone attending the climate summit. Couldn't the same meeting be done over the internet and computer conference calls. Rich Text



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Latest Nam forecasting a interesting set up across FL as this 500mb trough cuts off south of Louisiana this weekend. Only model not agreeing is the Euro. Could even see a low form near the Yucatan and ride NNE up across FL as per the CMC.

I did not post this new study from the beginning of the month waiting for the right time; a very interesting study on the issue of the Antarctic ice sheet: we usually see more studies on Greenland and the Northern polar regions:

http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2015/11/just-n udge-could-collapse-west-antarctic-ice-sheet-raise -sea-levels-3-meters

It won’t take much to cause the entire West Antarctic Ice Sheet to collapse—and once it starts, it won’t stop. In the last year, a slew of papers has highlighted the vulnerability of the ice sheet covering the western half of the continent, suggesting that its downfall is inevitable—and probably already underway. Now, a new model shows just how this juggernaut could unfold. A relatively small amount of melting over a few decades, the authors say, will inexorably lead to the destabilization of the entire ice sheet and the rise of global sea levels by as much as 3 meters.

Previous models have examined the onset of the collapse in detail. In 2014, two papers, one in Science and one in Geophysical Review Letters, noted that the Thwaites Glacier, which some scientists call the “weak underbelly” of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, has retreated dramatically over the past 2 decades. Most Antarctic researchers chalk this up to warm seawater melting the floating ice shelves at their bases; seawater temperatures there have risen since the 1970s, in part because of global temperature increases. Right now, an underwater ledge is helping anchor the glacier in place. But when the glacier retreats past that bulwark, it will collapse into the ocean; then seawater will intrude and melt channels into the ice sheet, setting the juggernaut in motion.

Scientists agree that this is going to happen, says Eric Rignot of the University of California, Irvine, lead author of the Geophysical Review Letters paper. “The real central question is the time scale.”



Quoting 105. HurricaneHunterJoe:



We had ok rains in November in San Diego County. The border of Baja and California seems to be the bottom of the trof where most ULL's and associated short waves move through, hence San Diego County has had higher rains than LA, Orange,Riverside and other counties in Soo Cal. San Diego County received between 1-2 inches last month while the other counties had 0-.50" amounts. San Diego has been the lucky location since May and set quite a few rainfall records since May. You know what they say.....It's LOCATION.....LOCATION.......LOCATION!


What is you total since May(June on).... I have 4.71 (6/1-11/30/15) source CoCoRaHS CA-RV-19
Quoting 103. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Should you be moving to south Texas, bring pictures of snow with you. It does snow here, but your memories of such events would be melt between snowfalls. Should you be moving to the Texas panhandle then you can leave your pictures of snow behind. You be given ample opportunities to take new pictures of snow.

Welcome to Texas!, when you get here. This state is big enough to experience just about any weather situation you wish to be in. You just have to be at the right place and at the right time. Bring your car. You are not going to walk across Texas. Well, you could, if you can haul enough to last you a couple of weeks. :) getting across Houston in a car can turn into a day trip


Before I moved to Texas for college a neighbor told me, "Remember that no matter how cold it is where you are in Texas, it's always colder in Amarillo." I suppose there is an opposite for the summer somewhere in West Texas or the Rio Grande!
And a nice summary from today from a member of the US Delegation: a realist in terms of the competing global interests.

http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2015/11/paris- talks-open-meet-geoscientist-who-has-attended-ever y-major-climate-negotiation

Q: Scientists sometimes point out a gap between what the science says about the magnitude and risks of climate change, and the actions that come out of these agreements. Do you think anything will happen at this meeting that would bring the policy more in line with the science?

A: I think there’s a legitimate complaint here. And I think it partly has to do with the rates of change that the scientific community is observing. There are very few issues that have this degree of in-depth assessment and consensus. So the scientist looks at this and says: If the problem is apparent, we ought to be taking more aggressive action.

The policy community starts at the other end and says: We have a host of priorities in each of our countries and this is one of them. How do I compare the immediate damages of this issue versus having insufficient capital—say I’m India—to provide access to electricity in my rural communities? Or how do I compare this issue—and say I’m in Europe—to my interest in immigration or terror policy? And this takes a second seat. Not because it’s not important, but [because] something else comes up that’s a bigger deal. And so the politics inevitably is in conflict in these spaces.

But if you ask many scientists about their own priorities, many would acknowledge that they haven’t stopped driving cars, or flying to meetings, or consuming things that lead to emissions, and aren’t proposing to do that. They are balancing these questions in their own lives. And the political world is seeking a comprehensive view that accommodates all of those perspectives. So the science is, in some ways, the easier part of this deal. The politics of how you get people to buy in and create consensus around action which requires some quite fundamental changes to world economies, that’s tough. So I think the gap is real.

I think the gap will increasingly be addressed. We are seeing it being addressed because the problem is no longer theoretical. We can point to damages, and as those become more and more significant the policy community elevates this in their list of priorities.

Quoting 112. StormTrackerScott:

Latest Nam forecasting a interesting set up across FL as this 500mb trough cuts off south of Louisiana this weekend. Only model not agreeing is the Euro. Could even see a low form near the Yucatan and ride NNE up across FL as per the CMC.



Scott the GFS was hinting at possible cyclogenesis near the Yucatan, rapidly spinning up and traversing NNE towards South and Central Florida. Lets cheer for a stronger system solution
Quoting 98. MaineGuy:



There's a big difference between being right and being persuasive. I would argue Carter was a great man, very prescient about a lot of things, but also a lousy president simply because he lacked the political skill to win over the American public during a difficult stretch. Reagan, by contrast, was an exceptionally good politician. I say that as someone who was very disappointed with the result of the 1980 election.
Interesting comment. I must say, I cannot think of one President that lead the nation through a period that was not difficult. He obviously had enough political skill to beat President Ford in 76, although Ford not the usual incumbent due to Nixon/Agnew resignation. Reagan was also exceptionally popular, especially in California where he was a former Governor and a motion picture star, decades before his California election. I will say this for Reagan, he was intelligent, and did great things for this country. I did not vote for him in 1984, but do remember plenty from the Reagan Era. Do not agree on all he accomplished, but do believe he changed the world for the better.

Here is a Low pressure with a moisture plume at South Florida with associated heavy Rain and T-storms ,moving North and East
Quoting 111. NativeSun:

Hi, I would love this government and the rest of the world governments to spend all this money on air and water pollution, then on something that we have no control over such as climate change. Maybe if we cleaned up the air and water, it might make a significant improvement on climate change. By the way what do you think is the carbon footprint on everyone attending the climate summit. Couldn't the same meeting be done over the internet and computer conference calls.


A couple points:

I would love this government and the rest of the world governments to spend all this money on air and water pollution, then on something that we have no control over such as climate change.

We most certainly have control over anthropogenic forcings in climate change as has been pointed out to you frequently.

Maybe if we cleaned up the air and water, it might make a significant improvement on climate change.

It sure would, but this runs contradictory to your first sentence which claims we cannot impact the climate.

By the way what do you think is the carbon footprint on everyone attending the climate summit. Couldn't the same meeting be done over the internet and computer conference calls.

Working together on issues is more complicated than just using impersonal communication methods. The carbon cost of meeting in Paris to discuss key policy issues face to face is dwarfed by the potential gains of such an endeavor. Bringing this up is both irrelevant (you stated humans cannot effect the climate) and a straw man argument is which you attempt to condemn world leaders for creating carbon pollution to meet to discuss solutions on a unprecedented global scale.

If you don't believe humans have caused the warming, and choose to disregard the scientific evidence stating otherwise, that is certainly within your right. But don't then begrudge world leaders for meeting to address what all nations see as one of the largest problems humanity faces at the moment, and use your personal unfounded denial to challenge science. There is certainly room for policy debate, the science, however, is quite clear.
Quoting 121. Naga5000:



A couple points:

I would love this government and the rest of the world governments to spend all this money on air and water pollution, then on something that we have no control over such as climate change.

We most certainly have control over anthropogenic forcings in climate change as has been pointed out to you frequently.

Maybe if we cleaned up the air and water, it might make a significant improvement on climate change.

It sure would, but this runs contradictory to your first sentence which claims we cannot impact the climate.

By the way what do you think is the carbon footprint on everyone attending the climate summit. Couldn't the same meeting be done over the internet and computer conference calls.

Working together on issues is more complicated than just using impersonal communication methods. The carbon cost of meeting in Paris to discuss key policy issues face to face is dwarfed by the potential gains of such an endeavor. Bringing this up is both irrelevant (you stated humans cannot effect the climate) and a straw man argument is which you attempt to condemn world leaders for creating carbon pollution to meet to discuss solutions on a unprecedented global scale.

If you don't believe humans have caused the warming, and choose to disregard the scientific evidence stating otherwise, that is certainly within your right. But don't then begrudge world leaders for meeting to address what all nations see as one of the largest problems humanity faces at the moment, and use your personal unfounded denial to challenge science. There is certainly room for policy debate, the science, however, is quite clear.
I,m surprised you even replied to that one.
Quoting 106. riverat544:


At some point the Republicans will start bashing their heads against the reality of anthropogenic global warming and they won't be able to maintain their intransigence. I can only hope it happens sooner rather than later. I'm encouraged by the fact that if they want to remain viable as a party they'll have to start bringing in younger voters who I believe overwhelmingly accept the reality of global warming.


Not overwhelmingly, but a majority of the under 25 Regularly voting Republicans do agree there's human caused warming. It's still not enough overall for the Republican platform to change for at least a decade though, just from the fact that age 40+ Republican Voter block is the more rock solid in the country. As the country is center right, they're less likely to be disenchanted with politics than Liberals.
Quoting 106. riverat544:


At some point the Republicans will start bashing their heads against the reality of anthropogenic global warming and they won't be able to maintain their intransigence. I can only hope it happens sooner rather than later. I'm encouraged by the fact that if they want to remain viable as a party they'll have to start bringing in younger voters who I believe overwhelmingly accept the reality of global warming.


They actually seem quite viable as a party, evidenced by the fact that they control both houses of Congress and a vast majority of governorships. While it stinks they don't pay enough mind to AGW, they seem to be thriving in elections at the moment.
Quoting 122. hydrus:

I,m surprised you even replied to that one.


Me too, but it rubbed me the wrong way. :)
126. vis0
Quoting 6. Patrap:

Until the driving force of this Planet becomes something other than the gathering of wealth by Men and Nations, nothing will change.


2015, The Year the Climate Struck back..




Aha!, i found something to disagree with on a Patrap comment.
If i may tamper with Patrap's quote,
vis0's version::
"Until the driving force as to the gathering of wealth by Men (women) and Nations stops influencing ones (their)  conscience and instead acts hand in hand with ones conscience, nothing will change."

Go ahead make money but do it WITH nature and you'll make more money. Heck  just in not having to create smoke screens, pay people to lie, and create false advertising an investor pushing for cleaner fuels will make more money.

My 2nd wish is that protestors stop those that just bang pots n pans and scream to be civil nothing worse that trying to get a voice heard by showing unity when some people join in just to get attention for themselves.

We are trying to get the general public to join in don't scare them by screaming unintelligible things.

In NYC when i passed out and posted papers, for the NYC i told leaders to spread out the banners so they can be read (if they can be carried if not then create syllable T-Shirts (no less than 3 letters per shirt) with matching number so people standing side by side IN CORRECT ORDER create on clothing banners (why break up the words into syllables?, its easier for others to read plus at just 1 letter per shirt no avenue would be wide enough to create a sentence, a baby on a parents shoulder can be the tilde in El Nino : - P), 

H
ave appointed leaders as if a band leaders with large numbers on cards, if the leader raises number 2 one reads the message under number two is that days marching messages. This way people not only hear the message but when many people together clearly say something it enters to soul and gives listeners goosebumps and a good feeling to join in, specially if one can sing CLEARLY their chants.
Use words that only can be used by anti aGW protestors to present their views in a manner that builds on caring for all people as "do not pollute if you care for humanity" so certain reporters / reports cannot twist those words. If one sez "down with filthy rich" it can be turned around that these people do not like rich people, some bystanders looking see protestors on 2 or 3 cell phones while a first time watcher/bystander can only afford 1 cell phone and think Hippocrates? i know that is not the best example, but again its not the money that damages a planet its the not carrying...

BTW i have 1 cell phone from 1998...i think its a cell phone?.

Quoting 104. hydrus:

Sometimes good leaders take the risk of doing something good, only to have it come back to bite them on the butt later. Risk is a accepted part of leadership.

Makes me wonder how this Obama chap will be remembered, after all he's going to have to move on next year at some point.
Now if there was a kingdom in the Americas long term plans could be put in place!

Looking at the climate situation, it seems that the outcome of these talks will be a bit like a Hollywood movie where everybody gets what they want and then all the audience has to go home to reality.
Everyone have a safe evening. Posting the loop of the low in the upper-midwest. Lots of snow with this one:



Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop

Hi, I would love this government and the rest of the world governments to spend all this money on air and water pollution, then on something that we have not control over such as climate change. Maybe if we cleaned up the air and water, it might make a significant improvement on climate change. By the way what do you think is the carbon footprint on everyone attending the climate summit. Couldn't the same meeting be done over the internet and computer conference calls.

Of Climate Change and Caliphates
How jihadist groups like Boko Haram and ISIS profit from global warming.


Consider the territories carved out and threatened by the infamous African terror organization Boko Haram. Its fanatics operated in the vicinity of Lake Chad, which has all but disappeared over the last 50 years, shrinking from more than 22,000 square kilometers in the 1960s to fewer than 1,500 today.

As climate patterns shifted, drought set in and attempts to compensate with irrigation drained the lake%u2019s waters. Before anyone had ever heard of Boko Haram, a 2008 report by the UN Environment Program noted, %u201CThe changes in the lake have contributed to local lack of water, crop failures, livestock deaths, collapsed fisheries, soil salinity, and increasing poverty throughout the region.%u201D

As the traditional populations moved out, Boko Haram moved in, terrorizing those who stayed behind.


Link
Brazil’s Great Amazon Rainforest Burns as Parched Megacities Fall Under Existential Threat

One need only look at today’s satellite image of Brazil’s Amazon Rainforest to notice something’s terribly wrong. A vast 1,000 mile swath of what should be some of the wettest lands on the globe running south of the world’s largest river is covered by a dense pall of smoke. Scores of plumes boil up out of the burning and sweltering forest. Pumping dark clouds into the sky, the fires’ tell-tale streaks out over a drought-parched Brazil, across the Atlantic, and over to Africa where the plume is again thickened by yet more wildfires.

Link
Quoting 131. ColoradoBob1:

Brazil’s Great Amazon Rainforest Burns as Parched Megacities Fall Under Existential Threat

One need only look at today’s satellite image of Brazil’s Amazon Rainforest to notice something’s terribly wrong. A vast 1,000 mile swath of what should be some of the wettest lands on the globe running south of the world’s largest river is covered by a dense pall of smoke. Scores of plumes boil up out of the burning and sweltering forest. Pumping dark clouds into the sky, the fires’ tell-tale streaks out over a drought-parched Brazil, across the Atlantic, and over to Africa where the plume is again thickened by yet more wildfires.

Link
Excerpt from your link...

Human-Forced Warming, Slash and Burn Agriculture, Godzilla El Nino

The causes for the fires are three-fold and all too often missed in the sparse mainstream media reports of the ongoing catastrophe. First, human-caused warming of the globe is pushing the great rainforest to slowly heat up and dry out. Alone, such warming would be enough to take down the great rainforest if the Earth warmed by between 2 and 4 degrees Centigrade. Since we’ve already seen Earth System warming on the order of 1 degree Celsius above 1880s values, the great forest is now feeling the stress of this added heat. But the forest is now also suffering the insults of what amounts to a half century of slash and burn agriculture. Immense swaths of the forest have been cut and burned away, converted into farmlands. Increasingly, large sections of the forest are isolated into smaller, less productive islands. In addition, the ongoing burning of vast tracts of woodland adds a fire pressure to an already heat-stressed rainforest.
Quoting 78. HurricaneHunterJoe:



If them K Waves keep coming .... Nino 1+2 may be the hotttest......is it not up over 2C now?


El Nino 1.2 weekly is at 2.4 highest in over a 6 weeks. Still may climb some from current K Wave. More importantly for Nino the SOI is crashing with MJO shifted out of its suppressive state. No strong easterlies are forecasted for December so things will stay toasty. I imagine that 1.2 will gain ground over time "relative" to the other regions. So, yes Floridians will likely experience strong Nino effects.

To top it all off a 5th K Wave has formed and is on its way. More money in the bank for keeping this Nino strong for the longer haul.

Good evening. Pope today on his way back home from Africa:

Pope Warns 'It's Now or Never' on Climate
By The Associated Press, PARIS Nov 30, 2015, 3:16 PM ET

Washington Post report with video.
Quoting 114. PedleyCA:



What is you total since May(June on).... I have 4.71 (6/1-11/30/15)


Good Afternoon Ped! As best I can tell

San Diego Lindbergh Field: Riverside Muni Airport:
May 2015- 2.39" May 2015- 0.60
June 2015- 0.04 June 2015- 0.00
July 2015- 1.71 July 2015- 1.94
Aug 2015-0.01 Aug 2015- 0.01
Sept 2015- 1.24 Sept 2015- 1.87
Oct 2015- 0.43 Oct 2015- 0.21
Nov 2015- 1.54 Nov 2015- 0.30
TOTAL: 7.36" TOTAL: 4.93"

Take out May 2015
San Diego: 4.97 Riverside Muni: 4.33 Pretty Close
136. beell
Quoting 129. NativeSun:


Hi, I would love this government and the rest of the world governments to spend all this money on air and water pollution, then on something that we have not control over such as climate change. Maybe if we cleaned up the air and water, it might make a significant improvement on climate change. By the way what do you think is the carbon footprint on everyone attending the climate summit. Couldn't the same meeting be done over the internet and computer conference calls.


Imagine our congress trying to work exclusively through the internet and conference calls...Imagine our congress trying to work by meeting in person. Yes, just a touch of snarc.

Anyway, the carbon footprint of the conference is calculated and an equal amount of offset projects are selected by the host country to make the event as carbon-neutral as possible. Is it or will it ever be perfect? Of course not. But it is a part of each COP.

More here
Uh, are we watching the same party? You know, Trump, the guy who said today that Obama's climate remarks are among the dumbest things he's ever heard? Most of the party now has that mentality. I am sorry. The repubs are not taking the White House and they are also giving up a lot of seats in the near future. They can't keep getting away with their blatant disrespect towards humanity.
Quoting 124. tampabaymatt:



They actually seem quite viable as a party, evidenced by the fact that they control both houses of Congress and a vast majority of governorships. While it stinks they don't pay enough mind to AGW, they seem to be thriving in elections at the moment.
Quoting 91. farmerart:

I am in the blue line above (I am in the science camp; recognizing that fossil fuel combustion is the primary mover of warming and subsequent climate effects).

I regret being the pessimist, but someone should point out the reality. So I will. Even if total success were to flow out of Paris, these "solutions" will not change the future . What hubris...what ignorance, that we should think that these puny efforts will change the massively complex systems that operate on our planet.














Reality..?Ignorant.?..How does one ignore what has not even occurred yet. There is little data to show what the changes from solar and other alternative energy sources have had the past 10 years on the environment, let alone what could be. The reality is, changes that have been made away from fossil fuels have undoubtedly had a positive effect , if anything, by lessening demand from power plants that are fueled by coal. Solutions are achieved by understanding what is actually happening, and then setting realistic goals to remedy the situation, even if it is a small step at a time. Your not as pessimistic as your are presumptuous.
139. bwi
Interesting article from Bloomberg on a new study of the corporate sponsorship and money flows funding the U.S. climate change denial PR efforts. I haven't read the original, so take the news report as you will.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-30 /unearthing-america-s-deep-network-of-climate-chan ge-deniers

"The American public has turned away from outright denial of climate change. Sixty-three percent of adults describe the problem as "serious" in the latest opinion poll from the Washington Post and ABC News, a dip from the 69 percent who held that view in June. The minority who remain skeptical of climate science—a group that includes presidential hopefuls and powerful lawmakers—can count on a dedicated network of several thousand professional supporters.

New research for the first time has put a precise count on the people and groups working to dispute the scientific consensus on climate change. A loose network of 4,556 individuals with overlapping ties to 164 organizations do the most to dispute climate change in the U.S., according to a paper published today in Nature Climate Change. ExxonMobil and the family foundations controlled by Charles and David Koch emerge as the most significant sources of funding for these skeptics. As a two-week United Nations climate summit begins today in Paris, it's striking to notice that a similarly vast infrastructure of denial isn't found in any other nation.

The role of ExxonMobil and the Kochs in influencing climate denial hadn't been empirically studied before now, according to Justin Farrell, an assistant professor of sociology at the Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies and the author of the new paper. He said the flow of money from group to group and person to person is often opaque to researchers."
Looks like some showers on Thursday.

Quoting 133. VibrantPlanet:



El Nino 1.2 weekly is at 2.4 highest in over a 6 weeks. Still may climb some from current K Wave. More importantly for Nino the SOI is crashing with MJO shifted out of its suppressive state. No strong easterlies are forecasted for December so things will stay toasty. I imagine that 1.2 will gain ground over time "relative" to the other regions. So, yes Floridians will likely experience strong Nino effects.

To top it all off a 5th K Wave has formed and is on its way. More money in the bank for keeping this Nino strong for the longer haul.




That's good and dandy for Florida but it is California that really needs a doubling or higher of rainfall to just put a dent in our drought. Drought in California means going from dry to bone dry and in year 3 or 4 of the current one.......we need them jetstreams lined up and pointing at California for about 4-5 months..... Have them run through here first and then take the dip south of Texas and into Florida. That may even help Florida with less tornados, from more stable atmosphere. I was also worried it would peter out too early and not up our chances on higher rain totals. That looks not to be the case anyway, which is good. We really would not know what is in store if it continues to strengthen, as the current version is about as strong or stronger than we have seen or studied. Pick a card.....any card!

Quoting 139. bwi:

Interesting article from Bloomberg on a new study of the corporate sponsorship and money flows funding the U.S. climate change denial PR efforts. I haven't read the original, so take the news report as you will.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-30 /unearthing-america-s-deep-network-of-climate-chan ge-deniers

"The American public has turned away from outright denial of climate change. Sixty-three percent of adults describe the problem as "serious" in the latest opinion poll from the Washington Post and ABC News, a dip from the 69 percent who held that view in June. The minority who remain skeptical of climate science—a group that includes presidential hopefuls and powerful lawmakers—can count on a dedicated network of several thousand professional supporters.

New research for the first time has put a precise count on the people and groups working to dispute the scientific consensus on climate change. A loose network of 4,556 individuals with overlapping ties to 164 organizations do the most to dispute climate change in the U.S., according to a paper published today in Nature Climate Change. ExxonMobil and the family foundations controlled by Charles and David Koch emerge as the most significant sources of funding for these skeptics. As a two-week United Nations climate summit begins today in Paris, it's striking to notice that a similarly vast infrastructure of denial isn't found in any other nation.

The role of ExxonMobil and the Kochs in influencing climate denial hadn't been empirically studied before now, according to Justin Farrell, an assistant professor of sociology at the Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies and the author of the new paper. He said the flow of money from group to group and person to person is often opaque to researchers."


There are so many people who want to get a decent paying job that climate change is a low priorty item. I think climate change/global warming is a serious issue but work,housing and food on the table make it a low item on the totem pole for lot's of folks.
Quoting 137. SecretStormNerd:

Uh, are we watching the same party? You know, Trump, the guy who said today that Obama's climate remarks are among the dumbest things he's ever heard? Most of the party now has that mentality. I am sorry. The repubs are not taking the White House and they are also giving up a lot of seats in the near future. They can't keep getting away with their blatant disrespect towards humanity.


Trump is hardly representative of the Republican party. The Republicans actually gained congressional seats in the midterm elections, so I'm not sure what you're talking about.

Also, as of now, many polls show that the Republican front runners for the presidential nomination would defeat Hillary Clinton in the general election. A lot can change with that, but the Democrats are hardly a shoe in for the White House, especially considering Obama's approval ratings are in the toilet.

Just because you don't like the party doesn't change the facts.
Quoting 124. tampabaymatt:



They actually seem quite viable as a party, evidenced by the fact that they control both houses of Congress and a vast majority of governorships. While it stinks they don't pay enough mind to AGW, they seem to be thriving in elections at the moment.


They do indeed! For the life of me, I cannot figure out why? Is it the fact that only 36% voter turnout in the last election and was the lowest since WW2 ? Say 55% of the 36% voted the Republicans into power.........that's not many citizens out of 300 Million calling the shots.
Quoting 127. PlazaRed:


Makes me wonder how this Obama chap will be remembered, after all he's going to have to move on next year at some point.
Now if there was a kingdom in the Americas long term plans could be put in place!

Looking at the climate situation, it seems that the outcome of these talks will be a bit like a Hollywood movie where everybody gets what they want and then all the audience has to go home to reality.
His elimination of bin laden will certainly be near the top of his accomplishments. Will let history determine the rest..Providing that it is published in truth.
There's your 32%. Republicans saying man has nothing to do with it.



We need that 52% to get out and VOTE!
Quoting 143. tampabaymatt:



Trump is hardly representative of the Republican party. The Republicans actually gained congressional seats in the midterm elections, so I'm not sure what you're talking about.


He's got a point. Democrats are getting swept out of state senate and house seats at a level we've not seen in many decades and Governor seats are held by a very high majority by Republicans. The truth shouts but the sheep a'int listening and we sink closer to the abyss. There are far more Democrats than Republicans but most don't vote because so many who would vote Democrat don't have any grasp on issues because they don't care enough to vote. It's great that so many here get it, but lets not kid ourselves, it's not the norm. That's why politically things look the way they do. The battle for hearts is waging and we are losing. You want to connect with someone you play to their prejudices and fears. That's a historical truth. (The Republicans get this point) You want to connect with people through truth, often all you get is a deaf ear because people have preconceptions that are very hard to shake.
Quoting 141. HurricaneHunterJoe:



That's good and dandy for Florida but it is California that really needs a doubling or higher of rainfall to just put a dent in our drought. Drought in California means going from dry to bone dry and in year 3 or 4 of the current one.......we need them jetstreams lined up and pointing at California for about 4-5 months..... Have them run through here first and then take the dip south of Texas and into Florida. That may even help Florida with less tornados, from more stable atmosphere. I was also worried it would peter out too early and not up our chances on higher rain totals. That looks not to be the case anyway, which is good. We really would not know what is in store if it continues to strengthen, as the current version is about as strong or stronger than we have seen or studied. Pick a card.....any card!



No worries according to Dr. Daniel Swain (search twitter) Cal will get plenty of action. Anomalous pressure surfaces like in the building Aleutian Low are setting up. 3.4 will continue to run hotter than 1997 for sometime, and maybe for a - l o n g - time. Then you have that 2015's, warmer than 1997's, blobs of ocean with associated stronger PDO anomalies, etc. The only thing i can think that 1997 has over 2015 was a sharper north to south equatorial SST gradient (and possibly pressure gradient?) along the equator. Thus a better likelihood of spinning up the storms.
Quoting 117. WeatherConvoy:


Scott the GFS was hinting at possible cyclogenesis near the Yucatan, rapidly spinning up and traversing NNE towards South and Central Florida. Lets cheer for a stronger system solution
Can you post anything from the GFS that has this "hint"? I'm looking at it now and, other than what looks like a clearly bogus low that shows up for a few frames out at 280 hours, I see no such hint. You say you're studying meteorology. If that's the case, most meteorologists back up their forecast with some evidence.


Another stormy night in Germany (above current gusts in Beaufort), now with "Oscar" over our heads after the visit of more severe "Nils/Gorm" yesterday night (see Grothar's post #81). Quite a lot of rain in parts of Germany (love it!), creating high water levels in creeks and smaller rivers (will take some time to fill up quite "empty" Rhine River, though).



"Severe Weather Europe" shows the temperature anomalies (source WeatherBell) for Europe in November. Pretty warm, eh? And this despite the little cold spell last week.


And it will stay too warm at least in the first week of December (see the last map below):


Enough maps for today. As I'm tired and it's after midnight: good night everybody and best wishes to the proceedings in Paris!

From the Miami NWS Disco...

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS POSSIBLE THU-FRI. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON THIS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE WED INTO THU WILL
TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE INTO SOUTH FL FROM THE CARIB. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY ON THE INCREASE TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THU-FRI AS WELL. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT,
WITH THE PRESENCE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (PW PROJECTED TO BE
2.0"+), RAISES THE CONCERN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/URBAN
FLOODING THU-FRI...EVEN DURING THE NIGHTTIME. AND WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR WIND FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW HELICITY INCREASING THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI JUST
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS PUSHES THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE KEYS AND STRAITS WITH SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES...BUT CONSENSUS SHOWING SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND
THE FRONT...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A REALLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH A
RIPPLE/WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH. THIS WOULD SET UP NEAR GALE CONDITIONS OVER OUR ATLANTIC
WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. NO DOUBT AGAIN PUSHING THE RIP CURRENT
RISK TO HIGH. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN HIGH IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WITH A STRONG ONSHORE WIND ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST...WAVES OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MOVE IN EVEN
BEHIND THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPS/HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE ABOVE
AVERAGE...EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND. /GREGORIA

Link
We're under the biggest extinction period since the dinosaurs. The love of money has a high price and is the true God of the West.
A nice cool day on the old homestead/abode High 56 Low36 Hazy Sunshine

Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA. SSSSD (SDGE)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Mon, 30 Nov 3:43 pm PST
Most Recent Observation: Mon, 30 Nov 3:30 pm PST
Explanation of Wx and Clouds columns.
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PST) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
30 Nov 3:30 pm PST 55 10 16 SSE 5G08 OK
30 Nov 3:20 pm PST 55 10 16 SSE 5G07 OK
30 Nov 3:10 pm PST 55 8 15 SSE 5G08 OK
30 Nov 3:00 pm PST 55 7 14 SE 5G07 OK
30 Nov 2:50 pm PST 56 7 14 SE 6G09 OK
Quoting 143. tampabaymatt:



Trump is hardly representative of the Republican party. The Republicans actually gained congressional seats in the midterm elections, so I'm not sure what you're talking about.


I am sure that the term "near future" that she used was not referring to last midterms. It is not even close in terms of the definition of words.
I do disagree with the original assumption that you were responding to. I don't see any major losses coming for the GOP, but that is just my guess. Once the greenhouse effect from human caused burning of fossil becomes an issue that sways elections it will be embraced and not denied openly by politicians running for office.
Quoting 144. HurricaneHunterJoe:



They do indeed! For the life of me, I cannot figure out why? Is it the fact that only 36% voter turnout in the last election and was the lowest since WW2 ? Say 55% of the 36% voted the Republicans into power.........that's not many citizens out of 300 Million calling the shots.
Democrats are on average, younger. Younger people don't vote in anything like their percentage of the population. Republicans are older on average. People over 50 vote at about twice the rate of those under 34. Those votes are likely to be Republican. The percentage of people identifying themselves as Democrats or Democrat leaning in the Pew Poll is 48%, while it's 39% for Republicans. Convince young people to vote and the Democrats can win any election. If they stay home, the Republicans win every time.

Link
Quoting 153. HurricaneHunterJoe:

A nice cool day on the old homestead/abode High 56 Low36 Hazy Sunshine

Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA. SSSSD (SDGE)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Mon, 30 Nov 3:43 pm PST
Most Recent Observation: Mon, 30 Nov 3:30 pm PST
Explanation of Wx and Clouds columns.
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PST) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
30 Nov 3:30 pm PST 55 10 16 SSE 5G08 OK
30 Nov 3:20 pm PST 55 10 16 SSE 5G07 OK
30 Nov 3:10 pm PST 55 8 15 SSE 5G08 OK
30 Nov 3:00 pm PST 55 7 14 SE 5G07 OK
30 Nov 2:50 pm PST 56 7 14 SE 6G09 OK


Here, High 65.4, Low 41.4

Current conditions at
Riverside Municipal Airport (KRAL)
Lat: 33.95299°NLon: 117.43491°WElev: 833ft.

Fair

68°F

20°C

Humidity 10%
Wind Speed VRBL 3 MPH
Barometer 30.06 in (1017.0 mb)
Dewpoint 9°F (-13°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Last update 30 Nov 2:53 pm PST
A special section in The Economist about climate change. Note that The Economist only allows one article to be read by non-subscribers. But if you erase your cookies after reading each article, you can read them all.



Hot and bothered

Supermodels

Groupthink

When the wind blows

Seeing daylight

If you can't stand the heat

A modern ark

If all else fails

Second-best solutions
Quoting 155. wartsttocs:



I am sure that the term "near future" that she used was not referring to last midterms. It is not even close in terms of the definition of words.
I do disagree with the original assumption that you were responding to. I don't see any major losses coming for the GOP, but that is just my guess. Once the greenhouse effect from human caused burning of fossil becomes an issue that sways elections it will be embraced and not denied openly by politicians running for office.


There is no sign that the Republicans are going to lose congressional seats, so to state that will happen like it's a certainty is not correct. Starting with the last midterms, the Republicans have been winning elections like crazy. They hold a majority in both the House and Senate, a vast majority of the governorships, and I believe a majority of state congressional seats. Also, Obama's approval ratings are terrible, so I don't see the Democrats as having much political momentum for the time being.

Yeah, I don't like that they downplay climate change also. It's terrible. But, that doesn't make them an non-viable political party.
Quoting 157. PedleyCA:



Here, High 65.4, Low 41.4

Current conditions at
Riverside Municipal Airport (KRAL)
Lat: 33.95299°NLon: 117.43491°WElev: 833ft.

Fair

68°F

20°C

Humidity 10%
Wind Speed VRBL 3 MPH
Barometer 30.06 in (1017.0 mb)
Dewpoint 9°F (-13°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Last update 30 Nov 2:53 pm PST


Downright sunny warm and balmy in the Inland Empire? Breaking out the sunscreen today?
"The Kyoto Protocol was first attempt at putting those words into action, but the agreement had several major flaws--including the fact that the United States decided not to ratify Kyoto and, as a developing nation, China wasn’t initially required to cut its emissions. In effect, both the U.S. and China used the other country’s non-participation as carte blanche to carry out business as usual. This meant that nearly half of the world’s greenhouse emissions went unregulated by Kyoto. Unsurprisingly, the world’s greenhouse output has continued to soar. In 1997, global CO2 emissions added up to 24.4 billion metric tons, according to the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency"

Although the US did not ratify the Kyoto Protocol, the United States has significantly reduced the rate of CO2 emissions increase nearly meeting the Kyoto Protocol goal of 1990 emission rates. In 1990, the US emitted 5100 million metric tons of CO2. In 2013, the US emitted 5500 million metric tons.
Source: EPA.
http://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/ga ses/co2.html
Link

The economic downturn following the 2007 financial crisis and the increased supply of natural gas for power generation due to fracking replacing the higher CO2 emitting coal power generation contributed to the reduced CO2 emissions.

Unfortunately, Democrat foot dragging led by Nevada Senator Harry Reid and President Obama has prevented the Yucca Mountain Nuclear Waste Depository from coming online which discourages the growth of reliable, CO2 free nuclear power generation in the US.
Quoting 151. GeoffreyWPB:

From the Miami NWS Disco...

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS POSSIBLE THU-FRI. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON THIS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE WED INTO THU WILL
TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE INTO SOUTH FL FROM THE CARIB. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY ON THE INCREASE TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THU-FRI AS WELL. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT,
WITH THE PRESENCE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (PW PROJECTED TO BE
2.0"+), RAISES THE CONCERN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/URBAN
FLOODING THU-FRI...EVEN DURING THE NIGHTTIME. AND WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR WIND FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW HELICITY INCREASING THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI JUST
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS PUSHES THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE KEYS AND STRAITS WITH SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES...BUT CONSENSUS SHOWING SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND
THE FRONT...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A REALLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH A
RIPPLE/WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH. THIS WOULD SET UP NEAR GALE CONDITIONS OVER OUR ATLANTIC
WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. NO DOUBT AGAIN PUSHING THE RIP CURRENT
RISK TO HIGH. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN HIGH IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WITH A STRONG ONSHORE WIND ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST...WAVES OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MOVE IN EVEN
BEHIND THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPS/HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE ABOVE
AVERAGE...EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND. /GREGORIA

Link


Looks like a lot more exciting weather for you in South Florida than we are expecting here in Central Florida.
They trample on the poor while catering to the very top 1%. They deny AGW while giving huge tax breaks to Big Oil. They legislate to divide and suppress voting rights, they attack attempts to raise minimum wage while the CEO's of the US rake in ridiculous wages, they cut safety nets for the most needy while they take money like never before in history from Big Business and the super rich, they seek to undercut regulations that support clean air and water in the aims of more money for their Big Business masters, they lie shamelessly, feed on fear and divide along religion and race lines. I am an independent. I have big problems with both parties. That is why, at this time, I can not, in good conscience vote Republican.
My teeth and toe nails hurt...

I think President Obama is at 44% approval rating. Is that considered good or bad? Is 50% the magic number?
Quoting 145. hydrus:

His elimination of bin laden will certainly be near the top of his accomplishments. Will let history determine the rest..Providing that it is published in truth.


I would have so admired O if he had captured bin Laden alive and brought him to trial at the Hague. Same goes for Saddam and Gaddafi. If the assassination of a sleeping man is the top of his accomplishments, plus starting 7 new wars, then he doesnt have much going for him in my book
My first? Banning? I most humbly ask for forgiveness from whomever I done pissed off!
Thats a wrap......


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season. Routine issuance of the
Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the
off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
conditions warrant.

$$
Forecaster Berg
Quoting 169. Guysgal:



I would have so admired O if he had captured bin Laden alive and brought him to trial at the Hague. Same goes for Saddam and Gaddafi. If the assassination of a sleeping man is the top of his accomplishments, plus starting 7 new wars, then he doesnt have much going for him in my book


He was awake when he was assassinated!
Careful, cursing in any form is not allowed as well.

rules of da road

: P
Quoting 127. PlazaRed:


Makes me wonder how this Obama chap will be remembered, after all he's going to have to move on next year at some point.
Now if there was a kingdom in the Americas long term plans could be put in place!

Looking at the climate situation, it seems that the outcome of these talks will be a bit like a Hollywood movie where everybody gets what they want and then all the audience has to go home to reality.
I will always remember him for giving me obamacare.
I'm musing about "equilibrium." Seems that the planet, in its typical Holocene state, naturally gravitates to an equilibrium that is best suited for us Holocene creatures. Go figure.

The more something disrupts the equilibrium, or pulls it from its center, the stronger the force is to return to center. Hence, the increasing strength of the storms, and the natural ability for our planet to return to its life-giving equilibrium amidst frequent disruptions through out her history.

Of course there is a point where the equilibrium snaps, as the old equilibrium and its creatures kind of just go away. Strangely, we need to be grateful for all the extra storms we are seeing, including Patrap's Dragon. They are a sign that the earth can still find her center and strongly move back to her desired equilibrium. We really got to start worrying when storms go away, and our planet rushes headlong into the next runaway greenhouse phase, Canfield Ocean equilibrium.

Someone in a previous comment was asking if the Planet had some unforeseen cooling mechanism. Consider how we had record-shattering number of major hurricanes in the northern hemisphere along with record-shattering SSTs. I'm trying to find out how much extra heat is vented into space (as Outgoing Longwave Radiation) in major hurricanes versus non-majors.

I bet it's a significant amount. Of course the majority of the Hurricane's heat is just moved around within the earth's climate. However, the higher cloud tops and Hot Tower on majors move more of that heat toward and into space. I'd love to know how much but can't seem to find any research specifically around that.



Quoting 169. Guysgal:



I would have so admired O if he had captured bin Laden alive and brought him to trial at the Hague. Same goes for Saddam and Gaddafi. If the assassination of a sleeping man is the top of his accomplishments, plus starting 7 new wars, then he doesnt have much going for him in my book
Howdy GG...Finding him was a huge task. Getting to him to stop him may have been a greater one..Besides, if it was your job to take him alive and he was surrounded by people armed to the teeth with all kinds of weapons including bin laden, you might feel differently..For all the public knows, it may have been the idea to take him alive in the first place, but circumstances did not permit it.
Quoting 168. HurricaneHunterJoe:

I think President Obama is at 44% approval rating. Is that considered good or bad? Is 50% the magic number?
Just as an example, President G.W. Bush had an average approval rating of 49.4%. President Carter had an average of 45.5%. President Obama so far has a 47.0% average approval rating. The last President to average above a 50% approval rate was G.H.W Bush (the first one) with 60.9%. It's generally accepted in politics than an average approval rating of less than 50% makes it almost impossible to get reelected. Since 1932, only one President, G.W. Bush, who ran for a second term after being freely elected to a first term has beaten that number and gotten reelected. He was close enough to 50% that the rule probably still applies.

Link
Quoting 172. nrtiwlnvragn:

Thats a wrap......


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season. Routine issuance of the
Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2016. During the
off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
conditions warrant.

$$
Forecaster Berg


nop that was a wrap up has the season was over and done with when we had kate that was the last named storm for the season and i new vary well we where not going too see any thing else after words so hurricane season ended when they did the last updated on kate
Quoting 176. VibrantPlanet:

I am musing about "equilibrium" Seems that the planet, in its typical Holocene state, naturally gravitates to an equilibrium that is best suited for us Holocene creatures. Go figure.

The more something disrupts the equilibrium, or pulls it from its center, the stronger the force is to return to center. Hence, the increasing strength of the storms, and the natural ability for our planet to return to its live-giving equilibrium amidst frequent disruptions thought her history.

Of course there is a point where the equilibrium snaps, as the old equilibrium and its creatures kind of just go away. Strangely, we need to be grateful for all the extra storms we are seeing, including Patrap's Dragon. They are a sign that the earth can still find her center and strongly move back to her desired equilibrium. We really got to start worrying when storms go away, and our planet rushes headlong into the next runaway greenhouse phase, Canfield Ocean equilibrium.

Someone in a previous comment was asking if the Planet had some unforeseen cooling mechanism. Consider how we had record-shattering number of major hurricanes in the northern hemisphere along with record-shattering SSTs. I'm trying to find out how much extra heat is vented into space (as Outgoing Longwave Radiation) in major hurricanes versus non-majors.

I bet it's a significant amount. Of course the majority of the Hurricane's heat is just moved around within the earth's climate. However, the higher cloud tops and Hot Tower on majors move more of that heat toward and into space. I'd love to know how much but can't seem to find any research specifically around that.





Please share with us the equations of the laws of physics that govern the planet where you live. I'm sure the contrast with those that govern Earth is quite significant.
Quoting 178. sar2401:

Just as an example, President G.W. Bush had an average approval rating of 49.4%. President Carter had an average of 45.5%. President Obama so far has a 47.0% average approval rating. The last President to average above a 50% approval rate was G.H.W Bush (the first one) with 60.9%. It's generally accepted in politics than an average approval rating of less than 50% makes it almost impossible to get reelected. Since 1932, only one President, G.W. Bush, who ran for a second term after being freely elected to a first term has beaten that number and gotten reelected. He was close enough to 50% that the rule probably still applies.

Link


Thanks again!
Quoting 177. hydrus:

Howdy GG...Finding him was a huge task. Getting to him to stop him may have been a greater one..Besides, if it was your job to take him alive and he was surrounded by people armed to the teeth with all kinds of weapons including bin laden, you might feel differently..For all the public knows, it may have been the idea to take him alive in the first place, but circumstances did not permit it.
There seems to be some historical confusion here. Saddam was arrested and taken alive. He was handed over to Iraqi court, tried, convicted, and executed. There was never any plan to take him to the Hague. Gaddafi was killed by his own people in 2011. There was a plan at one time to arrest him and bring him to trial for the Pan Am bombing but our EU allies, who were receiving a large percentage of their oil from Libya, vetoed that plan. Of the three mentioned, I don't believe there was even any intention of capturing bin Laden alive. A long, drawn out trial would have served nothing except being the focal point of even more terrorist attacks. We certainly didn't have the ability to subpoena witness from Al Qaeda to testify against him.
Is there anything worse than not being able to find the remote control for your home video system?


EDIT: Item in question found! Phewww! A man without a remote is like an artist without canvas and brush!
186. beell
Quoting 184. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Is there anything worse than not being able to find the remote control for your home video system?


Maybe, not having a home video system?
I see many on the blog tonight including dr masters are celebrating the conference in Paris. I could write quite a blog entry on this subject, but to try to put it briefly, the propaganda behind this conference sounds awesome- saving the environment, reducing emissions, etc. But there are a lot more sinister politics behind the resolutions being proposed. I suggest all of you look into it before giving unknown politicians and world leaders your undying support. For exaple, China (who is the backbone behind this conference) is EXEMPT from almost all of the taxes that will be imposed on other countries. The United States' coal power stations will be required to be MUCH cleaner (requiring extensive outfitting of pre existing scrubbers) while China will have very limited restrictions on their coal power. Also, third world countries will grow exceedingly indebted in this system considering they will be taxed much higher proportionally to countries that depend less on the cheap coal power poor countries rely on. But most importantly, take a look into where the income from the proposed taxes will go!

I definitely believe humans are doing great damage to our planet, but be very careful who you cede your power and support to. If these resolutions pass, our country will lose a LOT of our sovereignty to these organizations that will be set up to levy international taxes. And remember, these are not going to be elected representatives. This is not democracy.
Quoting 141. HurricaneHunterJoe:



That's good and dandy for Florida but it is California that really needs a doubling or higher of rainfall to just put a dent in our drought. Drought in California means going from dry to bone dry and in year 3 or 4 of the current one.......we need them jetstreams lined up and pointing at California for about 4-5 months..... Have them run through here first and then take the dip south of Texas and into Florida. That may even help Florida with less tornados, from more stable atmosphere. I was also worried it would peter out too early and not up our chances on higher rain totals. That looks not to be the case anyway, which is good. We really would not know what is in store if it continues to strengthen, as the current version is about as strong or stronger than we have seen or studied. Pick a card.....any card!


Quoting 186. beell:



Maybe not having a home video system?


I feel that way every time I lose my remote! LOL
Quoting 159. tampabaymatt:



There is no sign that the Republicans are going to lose congressional seats, so to state that will happen like it's a certainty is not correct. Starting with the last midterms, the Republicans have been winning elections like crazy. They hold a majority in both the House and Senate, a vast majority of the governorships, and I believe a majority of state congressional seats. Also, Obama's approval ratings are terrible, so I don't see the Democrats as having much political momentum for the time being.

Yeah, I don't like that they downplay climate change also. It's terrible. But, that doesn't make them an non-viable political party.


Voting for party because of one subject is narrow minded. I don't know who will be our next president, I just don't want another Clinton or Bush. Been there done that.
Quoting 188. Gearsts:




Here's hoping that forecast comes to fruition! NWS called for only 1 chance for light showers til Dec 10 C'mon jet....C'mon jet....C'mon jet!
Quoting 187. FLWeatherFreak91:

I see many on the blog tonight including dr masters are celebrating the conference in Paris. I could write quite a blog entry on this subject, but to try to put it briefly, the propaganda behind this conference sounds awesome- saving the environment, reducing emissions, etc. But here are a lot more sinister politics behind the resolutions being proposed. I suggest all of you look into it before giving unknown politicians and world leaders your undying support. For exaple, China (who is the backbone behind this conference) is EXEMPT from almost all of the taxes that will be imposed on other countries. The United States' coal power stations will be required to be MUCH cleaner (requiring extensive outfitting of pre existing scrubbers) while China will have very limited restrictions on their coal power. Also, third world countries will grow exceedingly indebted in this system considering they will be taxed much higher proportionally to countries that depend less on the cheap coal power poor countries rely on. But most importantly, take a look into where the income from the proposed taxes will go!

I definitely believe humans are doing great damage to our planet, but be very careful who you cede your power and support to. If these resolutions pass, our country will lose a LOT of our sovereignty to these organizations that will be set up to levy international taxes. And remember, these are not going to be elected representatives. This is not democracy.
Thought we were a democracy?
Quoting 56. Grothar:


Looking warm for early-mid December, and then possibly changing to a colder pattern with some opportunities for storms during late December-early January. That is what I am starting to hear from some forecasters.
Quoting 187. FLWeatherFreak91:

I see many on the blog tonight including dr masters are celebrating the conference in Paris. I could write quite a blog entry on this subject, but to try to put it briefly, the propaganda behind this conference sounds awesome- saving the environment, reducing emissions, etc. But there are a lot more sinister politics behind the resolutions being proposed. I suggest all of you look into it before giving unknown politicians and world leaders your undying support. For exaple, China (who is the backbone behind this conference) is EXEMPT from almost all of the taxes that will be imposed on other countries. The United States' coal power stations will be required to be MUCH cleaner (requiring extensive outfitting of pre existing scrubbers) while China will have very limited restrictions on their coal power. Also, third world countries will grow exceedingly indebted in this system considering they will be taxed much higher proportionally to countries that depend less on the cheap coal power poor countries rely on. But most importantly, take a look into where the income from the proposed taxes will go!

I definitely believe humans are doing great damage to our planet, but be very careful who you cede your power and support to. If these resolutions pass, our country will lose a LOT of our sovereignty to these organizations that will be set up to levy international taxes. And remember, these are not going to be elected representatives. This is not democracy.
Smaller coal companies may be able to provide third world countries with relatively cheap coal. You have a good point, and it may or may not be an issue, but far into the future.
Quoting 191. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Here's hoping that forecast comes to fruition! NWS called for only 1 chance for light showers til
Quoting 191. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Here's hoping that forecast comes to fruition! NWS called for only 1 chance for light showers til Dec 10 C'mon jet....C'mon jet....C'mon jet! From that chart what we need is blues and purples.
CFS showing it warm basically until about the 15th of the month, and then starts to progress cooler as we head towards late December. We just have to see how things play out over the coming weeks.
This is not a weather post, or a political post, it is a macro economic post. I am not meteorologist nor do I have any faith in politics,and no one, including myself would be very happy if my political ideas were enforced.

I have been studying macro economics for years, it is a hobby.

From what I have learned, it boils down to this, "We eat oil" Without oil and other carbon spewing fuels, the vast majority of the people on the plant will have to leave, one way or another. As we currently do not have interstellar travel, and wouldn't know where to go if we did, that means that to reduce the amount of carbon we are putting into the atmosphere, (with today's technology) somebody has got to die. As no one is volunteering, you can't really expect the politicians, at least the ones that want to keep thier heads, to do anything significant.

Now, this isn't to say that we cannot, or more importantly are not, producing some significant technological advances. There are two technologies in particular that I see as being significant. They have the advantage over all the others in that they 1. Are currently being deployed and are just now on the ramp up. 2) are both renewable and resilient. These of course are solar with battery storage. The movement here is at an incredible pace when you look at just how big a problem, or oppurtunity, exists. However, because of the speed of change, attempting to increase the speed of change is really an unproductive effort.

Now, the following may or may not be correct, with the may not more likely. It seems to me that even if we all died tommorow, and we quit spewing carbon into the air, the climate would continue to warm for a long time. (I could be wrong about this, but considering that CO2 is like and extra layer of insulation for the earth, not mankind, until that insulating blanket is removed, the earth will continue to warm. Because no one is willing to leave the earth with the method we have available, and no one can stay without adding CO2 to the atmosphere we will continue to add CO2 for some years to come and not only will the climate continue to change, it will change at an accelerating rate, and there is nothing we can do about it.

This isn't to say we should continue with the status quo. In fact, global warming or not, we will quit using oil for transport and coal for electricity in my life time, and I am getting old. The reason is; it is becoming so difficult to extract these resource and use them, while at the same time, solar and wind are actually getting easier. It may seem like we have a lot of oil and gas and coal and we can use them forever. The fact is, we have a lot of oil and gas, today, but the glut of these will go away sooner than later. Coal is both immediately dirty, and takes a lot of effort to mine, transport and burn. As the developed world's economy has a significant problem with an aging demographic, this labor intensive source of fuel will become less economical.

I don't know what the energy of the future will be, but I am pretty sure it will not be fossil fuels. I also do not know what tomorrow's climate will be, but I am pretty sure that the earth's weather systems will have a lot more energy to work with. And, I don't think there is a person in the planet that can do anything about it.

Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting 197. beell:



Because some people can't count?
:)


Large values of five.
Quoting 133. VibrantPlanet:



El Nino 1.2 weekly is at 2.4 highest in over a 6 weeks. Still may climb some from current K Wave. More importantly for Nino the SOI is crashing with MJO shifted out of its suppressive state. No strong easterlies are forecasted for December so things will stay toasty. I imagine that 1.2 will gain ground over time "relative" to the other regions. So, yes Floridians will likely experience strong Nino effects.

To top it all off a 5th K Wave has formed and is on its way. More money in the bank for keeping this Nino strong for the longer haul.




Maybe a bit off topic, where does the data for these charts come from? Just seems like a lot of detailed data that would be difficult to obtain automatically, say by satellite for instance.
201. MahFL
Quoting 31. Patrap:



Europe looked like that 40 years ago.
Quoting 183. sar2401:

There seems to be some historical confusion here. Saddam was arrested and taken alive. He was handed over to Iraqi court, tried, convicted, and executed. There was never any plan to take him to the Hague. Gaddafi was killed by is own people in 2011. There was a plan at one time to arrest him and bring him to trial for the Pan Am bombing but our EU allies, who were receiving a large percentage of their oil from Libya, vetoed that plan. Of the three mentioned, I don't believe there was even any intention of capturing bin Laden alive. A long, drawn out trial would have served nothing except being the focal point of even more terrorist attacks. We certainly didn't have the ability to subpoena witness from Al Qaeda to testify against him.
Maybe a trial In Absentia.?...This person killed thousands, and there is proof that he did.. I really dont care whether he had a trial or was taken alive...he is likely in his proper place as i type this...
Quoting 197. beell:



Because some people can't count?
:)
lol
Quoting 197. beell:



Because some people can't count?
:)


Might be one of those 2+2 doesn't equal 4 types. Reject math while they're at it.

Full Facepalm.

On the other hand I like how some of the messaging is towards actual "investment" - I.e. For those complaining about "wrecking economies" or "it goes to China" think about what you could do to profit from this changing landscape - literally and figuratively. Get your heads out of the safe sand where you sit on oil. It has no future.
205. MahFL
Quoting 168. HurricaneHunterJoe:

I think President Obama is at 44% approval rating. Is that considered good or bad? Is 50% the magic number?


44 is pretty normal.
Quoting 155. wartsttocs:



I am sure that the term "near future" that she used was not referring to last midterms. It is not even close in terms of the definition of words.
I do disagree with the original assumption that you were responding to. I don't see any major losses coming for the GOP, but that is just my guess. Once the greenhouse effect from human caused burning of fossil becomes an issue that sways elections it will be embraced and not denied openly by politicians running for office.
At least the facts will likely be addressed regardless of the electoral outcome.
207. MahFL
Quoting 204. CraigsIsland:



Might be one of those 2+2 doesn't equal 4 types.


2+2 does not always equal 4, it depends which base your in.
208. MahFL
Quoting 155. wartsttocs:



... I don't see any major losses coming for the GOP, but that is just my guess...


The GOP more than likely will not win the 2016 Presidential Election, a lot of GOP will be disillusioned with their candidate and won't turn out to vote.
This would be a good avatar.

210. MahFL
Quoting 209. BaltimoreBrian:

This would be a good avatar.




Two of those chimneys are not producing smoke, someone call an engineer...
Can't figure out the multiple choice comment. Is he fer it or agin it?

I think that's steam condensing.
Quoting 137. SecretStormNerd:

Uh, are we watching the same party? You know, Trump, the guy who said today that Obama's climate remarks are among the dumbest things he's ever heard? Most of the party now has that mentality. I am sorry. The repubs are not taking the White House and they are also giving up a lot of seats in the near future. They can't keep getting away with their blatant disrespect towards humanity.


Oh my. You must be young.

I'm sorry to disillusion you, but I'm afraid this will be able to continue for some time. You see, in this country our elections have become very much like those elections for homecoming king and queen. The three C's: charisma, confidence, and cojones. You can be as dumb as a boot and still be elected by a landslide if you smile like Robert Redford, are as arrogant as and English nobleman, and can read sound bites from a teleprompter. It gets even easier when you have you're very own propoganda channel that passes itself off as a news network.

Say what you want about the RINOs, but they've done a masterful job of building up and maintaining a near fanatical base that think compromise is an idea invented by fascist socialist muslim terrorists. The DINOs only wish they could have that kind of following, and perhaps if they did then they'd have a chance. I just don't see that happening. Their following seems more resigned reluctance than energetic enthusiasm.

Whatever. Either way I don't see anything seriously being done in regards to climate change. If the RINOs win, they'll gut the EPA, keep idiots in charge of the science committees, set kids textbooks back to the dark ages, and continue to wage their war on science and education. If the democrats win, if it's anything less than a filibuster-proof majority then it will be a continuation of the dysfunctional useless crap we currently have now.

Yes, I'm a curmudgeony old cynic. Now get off my lawn!
This may be controversial, but here it goes while we are on the topic of politics.

So my question is what if we just got rid of the democratic and republican parties in the United States and just go with an independent party or a make-up your own name kind of a party like the green party or something, I just think as a whole a lot of people see red and blue and what they traditionally vote for is what they will continue to vote for despite the candidate, that's not true for everyone, but for most people it is. I just think going this route might actually get the general public to listen in on each individuals campaigns and get educated on other issues that they might not have any understandings about, rather than going with what the media says or what your friend or family says? By the way on another topic I think the electoral college is flawed, of course it has its pros, but it also has its cons and I think what should be done is the number of electoral votes should be split among the states by percentages of the popular votes among citizens and popular votes among congress, for example if Florida has 27 electoral votes, and let's just say it's Trump vs. Hilary and Hilary gets 5 million votes and Trump gets 3 million votes by calculating it by percentages Hilary would get 16 electoral votes and Trump would get 11 electoral votes. This method would be applied to all the states and when all the votes are in and the electoral votes are distributed the candidate with the higher number wins. By the way the United States form of government is not a pure democracy, it's a representative democracy or a republic like the Roman Empire, if you wanted pure democracy the Ancient Greeks ran a pure democracy.
Quoting 213. GTstormChaserCaleb:

This may be controversial, but here it goes while we are on the topic of politics.

So my question is what if we just got rid of the democratic and republican parties in the United States and just go with an independent party or a make-up your own name kind of a party like the green party or something, I just think as a whole a lot of people see red and blue and what they traditionally vote for is what they will continue to vote for despite the candidate, that's not true for everyone, but for most people it is. I just think going this route might actually get the general public to listen in on each individuals campaigns and get educated on other issues that they might not have any understandings about, rather than going with what the media says or what your friend or family says? By the way on another topic I think the electoral college is flawed, of course it has its pros, but it also has its cons and I think what should be done is the number of electoral votes should be split among the states by percentages of the popular votes among citizens and popular votes among congress, for example if Florida has 27 electoral votes, and let's just say it's Trump vs. Hilary and Hilary gets 5 million votes and Trump gets 3 million votes by calculating it by percentages Hilary would get 16 electoral votes and Trump would get 11 electoral votes. This method would be applied to all the states and when all the votes are in and the electoral votes are distributed the candidate with the higher number wins. By the way the United States form of government is not a pure democracy, it's a representative democracy or a republic like the Roman Empire, if you wanted pure democracy the Ancient Greeks ran a pure democracy.
It is time ( and probably has been for a while ) to do away with the electoral vote. Popular vote would be better for the nation..jmo
The billionaire BIOFUEL club: Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg reveal new group to invest in smart energy firms
Club announced at opening session of Paris climate talks on Monday
Gates believes the energy sector suffers from a dearth of such funding
Will invest a billion dollars of him own money in the new fund

Bill Gates grows most animated when the talk turns to the 'cool' new energy technologies that have yet to leave the lab.
Gates was a rare civilian sharing the limelight alongside presidents and prime ministers at the opening session of Paris climate talks on Monday.
Offstage, in a barren conference room, he excitedly described the possibility of generating energy through the long-speculated process of artificial photosynthesis, using the energy of sunshine to produce liquid hydrocarbons that could challenge the supremacy of fossil fuels.

Read more at:

Link
Xyrus2000, that's spot on, exactly what will happen in response to #212. Electoral College was put in place because it was believed at the time that the average man was too ill informed to cast a meaningful vote. It is a dinosaur and should have been removed long ago. The world has always talked well and had this accord and that accord, look at the history of Europe. They sound good, have plenty of bluster, and then fail miserably. Like the Pink Floyd song says, "Then one day, you find, ten years have got behind you, no one told you when to run, you missed the starting gun........." The President will pontificate, the Republicans will bloviate, and the World will suffocate. And our children's children will know the world was greed above all else and that we missed the bus and left them with a world they can snorkel dive to see what the Florida Keys use to be like as conflict rages like a wildfire driven by the winds of climate change not handled when it could have been.
Algae blooms ...
Big Ag just about as bad as big oil ...

Farms near Lake Erie get millions
BY TOM HENRY • TODAY AT 3:00 PM
Between 2008 and 2015, concentrated animal feeding operations in the western Lake Erie watershed have received more than $16.8 million in direct payments, cost-shares, and other subsidies from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, according to a report issued earlier this month by activist groups tracking the issue.

Read more at:
Link
The LLC associated with that low to mid Surface trough that is passing just South of the Nature Isle of the Caribbean, Dominica turned out to be pretty strong for this time of year. If conditions were slightly more favourable it's potential for development could actually be quite good.
More reasons to be continuously vigilant even after the Atlantic Hurricane season has officially closed...
Link: http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antille s-guyane/animation/radar/antilles
220. NNYer
Quoting 213. GTstormChaserCaleb:

This may be controversial, but here it goes while we are on the topic of politics.

So my question is what if we just got rid of the democratic and republican parties in the United States and just go with an independent party or a make-up your own name kind of a party like the green party or something, I just think as a whole a lot of people see red and blue and what they traditionally vote for is what they will continue to vote for despite the candidate, that's not true for everyone, but for most people it is. I just think going this route might actually get the general public to listen in on each individuals campaigns and get educated on other issues that they might not have any understandings about, rather than going with what the media says or what your friend or family says? By the way on another topic I think the electoral college is flawed, of course it has its pros, but it also has its cons and I think what should be done is the number of electoral votes should be split among the states by percentages of the popular votes among citizens and popular votes among congress, for example if Florida has 27 electoral votes, and let's just say it's Trump vs. Hilary and Hilary gets 5 million votes and Trump gets 3 million votes by calculating it by percentages Hilary would get 16 electoral votes and Trump would get 11 electoral votes. This method would be applied to all the states and when all the votes are in and the electoral votes are distributed the candidate with the higher number wins. By the way the United States form of government is not a pure democracy, it's a representative democracy or a republic like the Roman Empire, if you wanted pure democracy the Ancient Greeks ran a pure democracy.


Ahh, Caleb, you aren't old enough to be cynical yet. I hope we have more of you out there in the future generations to come!
Quoting 193. Climate175:

Looking warm for early-mid December, and then possibly changing to a colder pattern with some opportunities for storms during late December-early January. That is what I am starting to hear from some forecasters.


I say this
IMO (general statement)

Mild/Average to slightly warm early to Mid Dec
Mild/Average to slightly Cool Mid Dec
Slightly cool becoming cold Mid to late Dec
Cold becoming colder late Dec
Colder becoming really Colder early Jan
Colder becoming at and/or near Freezing mid to Late Jan
Freezing to possibly near records or records late Jan to early Feb
Freezing to possibly near records or records levelled off Mid Feb
Freezing to warmer late Feb
Warmer becoming warmer early to Mid March
Warmer becoming really warmer mid to late March
Warmer becoming slightly warm to mild/average Late March
Mild/average early April

This includes the Southern half of ContUS, SE US moving up the E coast to the NE US (as time goes on) Mexico, GOM, Yucatan, to Southern and minor extent the extreme NW Caribbean
Quoting 221. wunderkidcayman:



I say this
IMO (general statement)

Mild/Average to slightly warm early to Mid Dec
Mild/Average to slightly Cool Mid Dec
Slightly cool becoming cold Mid to late Dec
Cold becoming colder late Dec
Colder becoming really Colder early Jan
Colder becoming at and/or near Freezing mid to Late Jan
Freezing to possibly near records or records late Jan to early Feb
Freezing to possibly near records or records levelled off Mid Feb
Freezing to warmer late Feb
Warmer becoming warmer early to Mid March
Warmer becoming really warmer mid to late March
Warmer becoming slightly warm to mild/average Late March
Mild/average early April

This includes the Southern half of ContUS, SE US moving up the E coast to the NE US (as time goes on) Mexico, GOM, Yucatan, to Southern and minor extent the extreme NW Caribbean


I will create graphics showing a visual representation of the text above during this week
Quoting 201. MahFL:



Europe looked like that 40 years ago.
So did San Bernardino, CA.
Quoting 222. intampa:

No you wouldnt have... you would then been complaining that he should have been killed. You would have accused him of being week. You strike me as one who would complain if the president was spitting out gold nuggets for everyone.


That would cause inflation.
Quoting 214. hydrus:

It is time ( and probably has been for a while ) to do away with the electoral vote. Popular vote would be better for the nation..jmo


The probability of that happening is almost zero. Small states would not be cared about at all such as Wyoming and Alaska. Why campaign in a state that only has 1/600th of the United States' population? Not advocating for or against, but that was the reason the founding fathers created it like this in the first place. No doubt they had no idea the population would behind this lopsided though. And to stay on topic, climate change? Yeah its bad. -Majority of American's perspective
AGW needs a better marketing campaign. Should highlight how many species we're exterminating forever on a daily basis. People, are simple, they care far more about animals than they do climate. It's not even close. They don't connect AGW and the destruction of Earth's resources and space as the root reason behind this extermination for human gain. There's far more animal enthusiasts, to put it lightly, than there are who deeply care about a warming planet. The Rights propaganda machine against AGW is brilliant for it plays to people's prejudice and fear, the Left needs an equally brilliant campaign that plays to people's love of living things. All this science is lost on people who just don't care that much. With people's fifteen second attention spans these days, it's important to resonate a message that really connects. That's yet to be achieved. With just over 50% believing, in America, that climate change is man driven, this highlights my point. People are tuned out and tuned in to the billion other entertainment options. Anyone notice how cell phone addiction has changed us in a short time. It's epic and driving an unintellectual generation and while it's everywhere no one really seems to notice.
Quoting 187. FLWeatherFreak91:

I see many on the blog tonight including dr masters are celebrating the conference in Paris. I could write quite a blog entry on this subject, but to try to put it briefly, the propaganda behind this conference sounds awesome- saving the environment, reducing emissions, etc. But there are a lot more sinister politics behind the resolutions being proposed. I suggest all of you look into it before giving unknown politicians and world leaders your undying support. For exaple, China (who is the backbone behind this conference) is EXEMPT from almost all of the taxes that will be imposed on other countries. The United States' coal power stations will be required to be MUCH cleaner (requiring extensive outfitting of pre existing scrubbers) while China will have very limited restrictions on their coal power. Also, third world countries will grow exceedingly indebted in this system considering they will be taxed much higher proportionally to countries that depend less on the cheap coal power poor countries rely on. But most importantly, take a look into where the income from the proposed taxes will go!

I definitely believe humans are doing great damage to our planet, but be very careful who you cede your power and support to. If these resolutions pass, our country will lose a LOT of our sovereignty to these organizations that will be set up to levy international taxes. And remember, these are not going to be elected representatives. This is not democracy.


I am impressed, possibly. Just how is that you know already what the final negotiations will be? Do not get me wrong. You could be exactly right. I just want to know how you could possibly know the final outcome of this already. Impress me.
Quoting 208. MahFL:



The GOP more than likely will not win the 2016 Presidential Election, a lot of GOP will be disillusioned with their candidate and won't turn out to vote.
This gop will vote early and often.
Quoting 229. Kenfa03:

This gop will vote early and often.


Dems have been getting slaughtered in every election except for the big one. We'll take it this time.
Quoting 230. PensacolaDoug:



Dems have been getting slaughtered in every election except for the big one. We'll take it this time.
So yall are good with obamacare?

Quoting Xryus2000

I'm sorry to disillusion you, but I'm afraid this will be able to continue for some time. You see, in this country our elections have become very much like those elections for homecoming king and queen. The three C's: charisma, confidence, and cojones. You can be as dumb as a boot and still be elected by a landslide if you smile like Robert Redford, are as arrogant as and English nobleman, and can read sound bites from a teleprompter. It gets even easier when you have you're very own propaganda channel that passes itself off as a news network.

You do realize you just described BHO's election, right?
Quoting 207. MahFL:




Quoting 193. Climate175:

Looking warm for early-mid December, and then possibly changing to a colder pattern with some opportunities for storms during late December-early January. That is what I am starting to hear from some forecasters.

Better be careful which of which forecasters you listen to. A big recall of crystal balls was just announced, one that might affect some of your crew.
Quoting 232. Kenfa03:

So yall are good with obamacare?
For the vast majority of Americans, it hasn't been at all what was promised. Which is par-for-the-course, for this administration.

P.S. It was really nice in Pensacola this past weekend and today.
Quoting 212. Xyrus2000:



Oh my. You must be young.

I'm sorry to disillusion you, but I'm afraid this will be able to continue for some time. You see, in this country our elections have become very much like those elections for homecoming king and queen. The three C's: charisma, confidence, and cojones. You can be as dumb as a boot and still be elected by a landslide if you smile like Robert Redford, are as arrogant as and English nobleman, and can read sound bites from a teleprompter. It gets even easier when you have you're very own propoganda channel that passes itself off as a news network.

Say what you want about the RINOs, but they've done a masterful job of building up and maintaining a near fanatical base that think compromise is an idea invented by fascist socialist muslim terrorists. The DINOs only wish they could have that kind of following, and perhaps if they did then they'd have a chance. I just don't see that happening. Their following seems more resigned reluctance than energetic enthusiasm.

Whatever. Either way I don't see anything seriously being done in regards to climate change. If the RINOs win, they'll gut the EPA, keep idiots in charge of the science committees, set kids textbooks back to the dark ages, and continue to wage their war on science and education. If the democrats win, if it's anything less than a filibuster-proof majority then it will be a continuation of the dysfunctional useless crap we currently have now.

Yes, I'm a curmudgeony old cynic. Now get off my lawn!
Yep. Sounds like the last 8 years.
Quoting 235. PensacolaDoug:

For the vast majority of Americans, it hasn't been at all what was promised. Which is par-for-the-course, for this administration.

P.S. It was really nice in Pensacola this past weekend and today.


If you are not behind a corporate or bureaucratic feudal wall, it was a bonus.
If you are a sheeple selling your labor for survival, not much of a advantage.
But, it was insurance reform, not health care reform.
We had rain in Valley of The Moon today.
Quoting 237. cytochromeC:



If you are not behind a corporate or bureaucratic feudal wall, it was a bonus.
If you are a sheeple selling your labor for survival, not much of a advantage.
But, it was insurance reform, not health care reform.
We had rain in Valley of The Moon today.
Why did my premium double for less coverage?
Another Atlantic Hurricane Season has come and gone. Into the offical record books it will go till the end of time. See you all back here in about 6-months. Same Bat-time, Same Bat-channel. 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season, R.I.P.
Quoting 198. Qazulight:

This is not a weather post, or a political post, it is a macro economic post. I am not meteorologist nor do I have any faith in politics,and no one, including myself would be very happy if my political ideas were enforced.

I have been studying macro economics for years, it is a hobby.

From what I have learned, it boils down to this, "We eat oil" Without oil and other carbon spewing fuels, the vast majority of the people on the plant will have to leave, one way or another. As we currently do not have interstellar travel, and wouldn't know where to go if we did, that means that to reduce the amount of carbon we are putting into the atmosphere, (with today's technology) somebody has got to die. As no one is volunteering, you can't really expect the politicians, at least the ones that want to keep thier heads, to do anything significant.

Now, this isn't to say that we cannot, or more importantly are not, producing some significant technological advances. There are two technologies in particular that I see as being significant. They have the advantage over all the others in that they 1. Are currently being deployed and are just now on the ramp up. 2) are both renewable and resilient. These of course are solar with battery storage. The movement here is at an incredible pace when you look at just how big a problem, or oppurtunity, exists. However, because of the speed of change, attempting to increase the speed of change is really an unproductive effort.

Now, the following may or may not be correct, with the may not more likely. It seems to me that even if we all died tommorow, and we quit spewing carbon into the air, the climate would continue to warm for a long time. (I could be wrong about this, but considering that CO2 is like and extra layer of insulation for the earth, not mankind, until that insulating blanket is removed, the earth will continue to warm. Because no one is willing to leave the earth with the method we have available, and no one can stay without adding CO2 to the atmosphere we will continue to add CO2 for some years to come and not only will the climate continue to change, it will change at an accelerating rate, and there is nothing we can do about it.

This isn't to say we should continue with the status quo. In fact, global warming or not, we will quit using oil for transport and coal for electricity in my life time, and I am getting old. The reason is; it is becoming so difficult to extract these resource and use them, while at the same time, solar and wind are actually getting easier. It may seem like we have a lot of oil and gas and coal and we can use them forever. The fact is, we have a lot of oil and gas, today, but the glut of these will go away sooner than later. Coal is both immediately dirty, and takes a lot of effort to mine, transport and burn. As the developed world's economy has a significant problem with an aging demographic, this labor intensive source of fuel will become less economical.

I don't know what the energy of the future will be, but I am pretty sure it will not be fossil fuels. I also do not know what tomorrow's climate will be, but I am pretty sure that the earth's weather systems will have a lot more energy to work with. And, I don't think there is a person in the planet that can do anything about it.

Cheers
Qazulight

Spot on and well said! We need to learn to "eat" something besides fossil fuel if we want to maintain our numbers. But, ultimately, we would be wise to ramp our numbers down to where we can "eat the sun", as in, sustain ourselves from the amount of energy that falls upon the Earth each day.

This climate change discussion, especially the political aspect, is pretty depressing. It's nice to come here and see other people who see what's happening, so I know I'm not alone.
Quoting 240. RedwoodCoast:


Spot on and well said! We need to learn to "eat" something besides fossil fuel if we want to maintain our numbers. But, ultimately, we would be wise to ramp our numbers down to where we can "eat the sun", as in, sustain ourselves from the amount of energy that falls upon the Earth each day.

This climate change discussion, especially the political aspect, is pretty depressing. It's nice to come here and see other people who see what's happening, so I know I'm not alone.
How do you suggest ramping our numbers down?
Quoting 124. tampabaymatt:



They actually seem quite viable as a party, evidenced by the fact that they control both houses of Congress and a vast majority of governorships. While it stinks they don't pay enough mind to AGW, they seem to be thriving in elections at the moment.

And yet the only time that Republicans won the total popular vote for President since 1992 was in 2004 and in the last couple of congressional elections there have been more votes cast for Democrats than Republicans. The gerrymandering that has been going on that concentrates the D's in a few districts explains the discrepancy. As I said the reality of global warming will catch up with them sooner or later.
Quoting 241. Kenfa03:

How do you suggest ramping our numbers down?

Yeah, that is the Sticky Wicket, isn't it? I was thinking long term, like centuries ahead, so it could be almost unnoticeable. Somehow, I don't think it's going to work out that way, but it's good to have a goal.
Quoting 201. MahFL:



Europe looked like that 40 years ago.

LA looked like that 50 years ago.
These climate change meetings are about the redistribution of wealth from industrial nations to third world nations and nothing more. With any luck they will fail miserably. Although Obama is sure to give away some of our American tax dollars to someone for some reason, because that is what he does and has been doing for seven years.

Environmentally friendly power generation is also a joke and here's why. I used to work in the power industry and you always need to have a base generation capacity equal to your maximum need. It can't come from any power generation technology that is NOT RELIABLE! What this means is that solar and wind cannot be used unless you want to turn off power to people's houses and businesses when the sun doesn't shine or the wind doesn't blow. This core generation capability MUST come from fossil or nuclear power plants. We should be building nuclear power plants if we want to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but Americans are against that. So there is no alternative at this point.

And please, your electric cars are just as polluting as regular cars. The electricity to recharge them comes from power generation plants which emit greenhouse gases, and the lithium batteries in them are horribly polluting to make and even worse when they need to be disposed of.
Quoting 207. MahFL:



2+2 does not always equal 4, it depends which base your in.

In base 2 the digit 2 does not exist but you could write the formula as (10 + 10 = 100); in base 3: (2 + 2 = 11) and in base 4: (2 + 2 = 10). In any base above that (2 + 2 = 4). /pedant
Quoting 245. rjsenterp:

[snip] Environmentally friendly power generation is also a joke and here's why. I used to work in the power industry and you always need to have a base generation capacity equal to your maximum need. It can't come from any power generation technology that is NOT RELIABLE! What this means is that solar and wind cannot be used unless you want to turn off power to people's houses and businesses when the sun doesn't shine or the wind doesn't blow. This core generation capability MUST come from fossil or nuclear power plants. We should be building nuclear power plants if we want to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but Americans are against that. So there is no alternative at this point. [snip]
I'll just ignore all the political claptrap and address your expansive knowledge of the power industry. I used to work for the industry, and almost everything you wrote is wrong. Baseload power is calculated on the minimum demand, not maximum. That's why it's called baseload. To meet maximum demand, we have peaking power generation sources. Contrary to your assertions, peaking or baseload plants don't have to be fossil or nukes. They can be hydro, solar, wind, biomass, and geothermal, and often are in different parts of the country. There is no legal definition about what constitutes a baseload plant. That's decided by each utility, based on its needs. FERC demands all power be reliable, but that doesn't mean just fossil or nukes. Hydro plants are commonly both baseload and peaking power plants, as are biomass and geothermal plants. We already have solar plants with heat storage capabilities. The massive Ivanpah (CA) plant is one example that's able to generate power 24 hours a day with more than 95% reliability. It's being used for baseload power now. With the exception of wind plants, all the others can be used for either baseload or peaking. We are not just tied to fossil or nuke plants. It would appear from your complete lack of knowledge about power production that your claim to have worked in the "power industry" means you worked in the battery department at Walmart.
Quoting 6. Patrap:

Until the driving force of this Planet becomes something other than the gathering of wealth by Men and Nations, nothing will change.


2015, The Year the Climate Struck back..




Quoting 244. BayFog:


LA looked like that 50 years ago.
As did Cleveland, Detroit, Pittsburgh, or almost any industrial city in 1950, which is 65 years ago now. Smoke was a sign people had jobs, not that pollution was bad. The skys are clear now in Cleveland because all the industrial jobs moved to places like China and Brazil. Some of the improvements we've seen in pollution here are only possible because we exported the cause of the pollution elsewhere in the world.
Quoting 247. sar2401:

I'll just ignore all the political claptrap and address your expansive knowledge of the power industry. I used to work for the industry, and almost everything you wrote is wrong. Baseload power is calculated on the minimum demand, not maximum. That's why it's called baseload. To meet maximum demand, we have peaking power generation sources. Contrary to your assertions, peaking or baseload plant don't have to be fossil or nukes. They can be hydro, solar, wind, biomass, and geothermal, and often are in different parts of the country. There is no legal definition about what constitutes a baseload plant. That's decided by each utility, based on its needs. FERC demands all power be reliable, but that doesn't mean just fossil or nukes. Hydro plants are commonly both baseload and peaking power plants, as are biomass and geothermal plants. We already have solar plants with heat storage capabilities. The massive Ivanpah (CA) plant is one example that's able to generate power 24 hours a day with more than 95% reliability. It's being used for baseload power now. With the exception of wind plants, all the others can be used for either baseload or peaking. We are not just tied to fossil or nuke plants. It would appear from your complete lack of knowledge about power production that your claim to have worked in the "power industry" means you worked in the battery department at Walmart.
Might want to do a little research on the amount of gas Ivanpah is burning before you toot its horn too loud.
Quoting 250. Kenfa03:

Might want to do a little research on the amount of gas Ivanpah is burning before you toot its horn too loud.
Ivanpah has had some startup problems, but it's now operating at almost full planned output. It's not surprising that a plant that large will require adjustments, and the amount of natural gas consumed for daily start up should markedly decrease over the next couple of years.
Quoting 247. sar2401:

I'll just ignore all the political claptrap and address your expansive knowledge of the power industry. I used to work for the industry, and almost everything you wrote is wrong. Baseload power is calculated on the minimum demand, not maximum. That's why it's called baseload. To meet maximum demand, we have peaking power generation sources. Contrary to your assertions, peaking or baseload plant don't have to be fossil or nukes. They can be hydro, solar, wind, biomass, and geothermal, and often are in different parts of the country. There is no legal definition about what constitutes a baseload plant. That's decided by each utility, based on its needs. FERC demands all power be reliable, but that doesn't mean just fossil or nukes. Hydro plants are commonly both baseload and peaking power plants, as are biomass and geothermal plants. We already have solar plants with heat storage capabilities. The massive Ivanpah (CA) plant is one example that's able to generate power 24 hours a day with more than 95% reliability. It's being used for baseload power now. With the exception of wind plants, all the others can be used for either baseload or peaking. We are not just tied to fossil or nuke plants. It would appear from your complete lack of knowledge about power production that your claim to have worked in the "power industry" means you worked in the battery department at Walmart.
There will come a day when wind and solar will be blamed for killing too many birds and they will be shut down.
Quoting 252. Kenfa03:

There will come a day when wind and solar will be blamed for killing too many birds and they will be shut down.


There are ways to keep birds from dying.

Meanwhile you have tons and tons and tons of CO2 being pumped into the atmosphere and ocean, causing what could very well be the next mass extinction. And you are worried about a bird running into a bright light? /facepalm
Quoting 252. Kenfa03:

There will come a day when wind and solar will be blamed for killing too many birds and they will be shut down.
oilspills alone have killed more birds( among many other creatures ) then solar and wind will in a million years.
Quoting 226. AZweather13:



The probability of that happening is almost zero. Small states would not be cared about at all such as Wyoming and Alaska. Why campaign in a state that only has 1/600th of the United States' population? Not advocating for or against, but that was the reason the founding fathers created it like this in the first place. No doubt they had no idea the population would behind this lopsided though. And to stay on topic, climate change? Yeah its bad. -Majority of American's perspective
Greatings AZ...I disagree. The Electoral College is not as important as it was back in the early years of the U.S. Many states that you refer to are large extent, ignored anyway..I always wondered why they say " The people have spoken, and we have a new President " when in reality it should have read " The people and the Electoral Vote have spoken " G.W.Bush won by electoral votes, not by winning the majority of the peoples vote...Its just my opinion, I almost regret posting it, but the blog was really slow...:)
.
It's way too warm to be December. Overnight didn't dip below 10°C (Should be at 4-5°C) and it's currently 14°C (when it's usually meant to be around 9-10°C). The warm weather is expected to continue into next week and the GFS in the long range has temperatures being above average until mid-December for the UK. Looks like it'll be quite storm over the next week or so too. Hoping there'll be a cold snap and settling snow at some point.
looks like some flooding concerns coming for southern florida in a few days.............
Quoting 252. Kenfa03:

There will come a day when wind and solar will be blamed for killing too many birds and they will be shut down.


How does solar power kill birds?
262. MahFL
Quoting 235. PensacolaDoug:

For the vast majority of Americans, it hasn't been at all what was promised.


Obamacare has provided a lot of people with coverage though at reasonable costs, especially for families with older children.
263. MahFL
Quoting 238. Kenfa03:

Why did my premium double for less coverage?


Because the insurance companies are greedy and the population is getting older, so health care costs will keep rising, as older people have more health problems.
Quoting 262. MahFL:



Obamacare has provided a lot of people with coverage though at reasonable costs, especially for families with older children.
There have been a few winners. Lots more losers.
Quoting 261. tampabaymatt:



How does solar power kill birds?


Link
Quoting 245. rjsenterp:

These climate change meetings are about the redistribution of wealth from industrial nations to third world nations and nothing more. With any luck they will fail miserably. Although Obama is sure to give away some of our American tax dollars to someone for some reason, because that is what he does and has been doing for seven years.

Environmentally friendly power generation is also a joke and here's why. I used to work in the power industry and you always need to have a base generation capacity equal to your maximum need. It can't come from any power generation technology that is NOT RELIABLE! What this means is that solar and wind cannot be used unless you want to turn off power to people's houses and businesses when the sun doesn't shine or the wind doesn't blow. This core generation capability MUST come from fossil or nuclear power plants. We should be building nuclear power plants if we want to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but Americans are against that. So there is no alternative at this point.

And please, your electric cars are just as polluting as regular cars. The electricity to recharge them comes from power generation plants which emit greenhouse gases, and the lithium batteries in them are horribly polluting to make and even worse when they need to be disposed of.


Those in here will eat you alive for posting such nonsense!
I have an issue with electric cars, it's the disposal of those lithium batteries, and the transportation of those batteries, the dirty little secret of these batteries is they self ignite, this is a huge issue in the air transportation industry, a solution hasn't been reached. several airplanes have burned due to this technology. when electric cars burn, and the fire department can't put water on then, they continue to burn adding to air pollution, my point here is there is no easy fix.
Quoting 230. PensacolaDoug:



Dems have been getting slaughtered in every election except for the big one. We'll take it this time.
The Repubs have done a splendid job of cheating themselves into winning in areas where their numbers are in the shrinking minority thanks to the dual wonders of gerrymandering and redistricting. Fortunately for the US, such political prestidigitation can't and won't hand the Right the keys to the White House. Of course, they can always get a friendly Supreme Court to overrule the will of the American people and hand it to them again (see: 2000), but that's not likely. And probably won't be necessary, given the growing dissastisfaction with the GOP's Krazy Kandidates Klown Kar...
Quoting 238. Kenfa03:

Why did my premium double for less coverage?


The fascists within our Government are exempt from Obamacare, and have a Cadillac healthcare program, this is for relatives of those fascist in power, We the peasants are given a system that is no sustainable. This shouldn't be political, we need a system that is as fair to all as possible, not this political rammroded system we now have.
The Most Important Number in Climate Change

Just how sensitive is Earth's climate to increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide?


The furious majesty of a thunderstorm defies computer simulation. In a world divided up into 10,000 square kilometer grids to make the 510 million square kilometer Earth digestible to a computer, a thundercloud that rains over two square kilometers remains too small to properly calculate in a climate simulation—as does even a hurricane like Sandy that sprawled over 280 kilometers of ocean and land in 2012.

Link
Quoting 266. trunkmonkey:



Those in here will eat you alive for posting such nonsense!
when electric cars burn, and the fire department can't put water on then, they continue to burn adding to air pollution, my point here is there is no easy fix.

Google images -


Gasoline tanker fires
colorado searches the web for anything that proves the characters point. awareness of gw grew with the development of the internet.
cyclone tuni is no more just a mass of disorganized clouds. it will be interesting if another disturbed area develops near polynesia. this would be a sure sign of a strong el nino
Good Morning Folks.............And now for something completely different.........Today's Conus forecast:




Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 AM EST Tue Dec 01 2015

Valid 12Z Tue Dec 01 2015 - 12Z Thu Dec 03 2015

...Widespread snow possible for the Upper Midwest...

...Heavy rain possible for portions of the Tennessee Valley, the Central
Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic...

A vast area spanning from the Northern Plains to the Upper Midwest will be
impacted by a winter storm over the next couple of days as the associated
low and cold front slowly treks across the central U.S. Numerous winter
storm warnings and advisories are in effect for Nebraska, the Dakotas ,
Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Accumulations of 2 to 6 inches will be
common for this region, with locally higher amounts possible.

Rain is expected to develop along the cold front from parts of the Upper
Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi Valley/Western Gulf Coast and will
move eastward as the front progresses. Periods of heavy rain may occur for
portions of the Tennessee Valley and Central Appalachians. Flash flooding
will be possible for these areas over the next few days. Please refer to
the Excessive Rainfall Outlooks for additional information.

This system will merge with the low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic Coast
and associated front extending from the Southern Mid-Atlantic into the
Ohio Valley. The system will lift northward to Southern New England Coast
by Wednesday. Rain is forecast to accompany this front as well.

A couple for fronts will move toward the Pacific Northwest, but will
dissipate before making landfall. Rain initially will be limited to the
Olympic Peninsula, however this evening it will begin to move inland to
parts of the Northern Intermountain Region by Wednesday. Snow will spread
across the higher elevations of the Cascades tonight and into Wednesday;
picking up intensity Thursday into Friday, as well as, expanding eastward
in the Northern Rockies.

Quoting 272. islander101010:

colorado searches the web for anything that proves the characters point.


Yep , flaming electric car batteries , are way worst than jack knifed gasoline tankers burning down freeway interchanges. Those tankers burn so much cleaner.
Quoting 253. Astrometeor:



There are ways to keep birds from dying.

Meanwhile you have tons and tons and tons of CO2 being pumped into the atmosphere and ocean, causing what could very well be the next mass extinction. And you are worried about a bird running into a bright light? /facepalm


I keep waiting for these people to suggest bringing down all skyscrapers as they are a larger source of bird deaths than wind and solar. Coal plants are responsible for more bird deaths per kwh as well.
2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season:

The official 2015 Atlantic hurricane season has ended on November 30th.

Final Numbers:

11 - Total Named Storms
4 - Hurricanes
2 - Major Hurricanes

For a year with one of the most powerful El Nino events on record, the Atlantic basin still churned out 11 named storms.

Although the strong wind-shear associated with the El Nino tore many of the storms apart, the number of named storms forming in the Atlantic seemed to be at the upper-end of predictions.

We recently had Hurricane Kate, an unusual hurricane in the month of November - forming during this powerful El Nino occurrence.
Quoting 241. Kenfa03:

How do you suggest ramping our numbers down?


Actually, ramping numbers down is both tough and not tough. The Data Scientist have been crunching numbers and have found that if you increase wealth, even a little, and/or because of this increase in wealth, you increase the survival rate of children, you get a reduction in fertility rates. Additionally, we see that the education of women, and it does not have to be formal, reduces fertility rates.

If you look at all of the developed countries, you see that they have been ramping down population for more than a generation. What is more, the "developing" countries have go to replacement value as far back as 20 years ago, with India being the last really big population with a positive growth rate.

Now, speaking in Macro economic terms, this ramping down is between dangerous and disaterous. There are two problems with this method. The first is you get an aging population, old people who need to be supported and not s lot of young people to support them. This is whole problem by itself. Then you have a real danger. We live in an economy that has a financial system based on fractional reserve lending. This system cannot tolerate deflation. It will kill that system. But, a ramping down of the population naturally causes deflation, as it produces over abundance. You end up with empty houses, and excess furniture,a nod left over appliances and so on. When you have falling values of underlying assets for the loans that have been made, the reserves held at the bank must go up, but, as the reserves have been run though the cycle many times. The leverage is enormous, and very quickly the math become untenable.

For more information on the demographics I recommend Gapminder.org and the TED talks linked there.

For more information on economics, you probably should start with the Sal Khan's videos on Kahn Academy, and the very entertaining Crash Course World history wouldn't hurt either. For up to date thinking on political economics, John Maudlin has a good, (and free weekly letter.) If you are fortunate enough to have spare money, Stratfor is an excellent source of international politics and diplomacy. At one time I had access to the Natioanl Intelligence Daily (The Top Secret Document produced by the intelligence community for the President) you would be almost as well informed with the intelligence gathered from Stratfor. (Then again, there were days I read the NID and it confirmed what I had listened to on the BBC hf radio I brought on line before I brought up classified circuits, so Stratfor may leave you better informed.

The problem is that even if we all died tommorow, the earth would still be warming and would do so for a long time. On the other hand, with challenges, come oppurtunity. It seems there will be a lot of oppurtunity in our future.
282. Stormwatch247
8:30 AM EST on December 01, 2015


The warm sst's across the equatorial belt in all basins produced plenty of storms this year so far including those two rare ones in the Middle East. Will be interesting to see how this pans out in the coming decades. Plenty of theories on GW and the impact on tropical storms (with some predicting for example for less frequent but more powerful Atlantic storms) but the jury is still out on that one. Just noting, as you did, that this strong El Nino year produced 11 storms in spite of the shear issues. Would also note that two of the Atlantic storms formed near the Bahamas with record sst's in that region. I am assuming, for the moment, that warmer sst's might produce more storms in the future rather then less.

I am looking forward to seeing what the next La Nina season looks like for the Atlantic.
Quoting 280. Naga5000:



I keep waiting for these people to suggest bringing down all skyscrapers as they are a larger source of bird deaths than wind and solar. Coal plants are responsible for more bird deaths per kwh as well.
There are groups of people very concerned about the bird deaths.
ST. PETERSBURG --

We know that November was warm. Air conditioners kept running, folks were still in backyard swimming pools and even going in the water at the beach. But how warm was it?

The first two weeks were exceptionally warm, with numerous record highs and record high minimum temperatures broken. All locations that keep records ended up in the top five warmest on record, with some at the top.

This followed a warm September and October, making it one of the warmest autumn seasons (Sep-Nov) on record, as well.

Let’s look at the numbers:

Tampa
November: Average Temp 76.2 degrees (7.1 above normal). Second warmest on record.
There were five daily record high temperatures recorded and eight record high minimums recorded.
Autumn (September-November): Average Temp 79.0 (3.3 above normal). Warmest Autumn on record.

Lakeland
November: Average temperature: 75.4 degrees (7.2 above normal). Second warmest on record.
There were five record high temperatures recorded and nine record high minimums recorded during the month.
Autumn (September-November): Average temperature: 78.3 (3.8 above normal). Second warmest Autumn on record.

St. Petersburg
Average temperature: 74.9 degrees (4.8 above normal). Third warmest on record.
There were NO record high temperatures recorded, but eight record high minimums recorded during the month.
Autumn (September-November): Average temperature: 79.1 (2.6 degrees above normal). Fourth warmest Autumn on record.

Sarasota-Bradenton
Average temperature: 75.4 degrees (6.2 above normal). Second warmest on record.
There was one record high temperatures recorded and seven record high minimums recorded during the month.
Autumn: (September-November): Average temperature: 78.0 (2.4 above normal). Second warmest Autumn on record*

Rainfall for the month, in most cases, was below average. Late in the month, there were some showers, and Polk County did see quite a bit of rainfall leading to above average rain totals for the county. November is typically our driest month, so the deficits were not too significant.

Looking ahead to December, here are some numbers:

Tampa
Average high on the 1st is 75 degrees, 70 by the 31st
Average low on the 1st is 57 degrees, 52 by the 31st
Average rainfall is 2.47 inches


Lakeland
Average high on the 1st is 76 degrees, 72 by the 31st
Average low on the 1st is 55 degrees, 50 by the 31st
Average rainfall is 2.60” inches


St. Petersburg

Average high on the 1st is 74 degrees, 70 by the 31st
Average low on the 1st is 59 degrees, 54 by the 31st
Average rainfall is 2.75”

Sarasota-Bradenton
Average High on the 1st is 76 degrees, 71 by the 31st
Average Low on the 1st is 56 degrees, 52 by the 31st
Average rainfall is 2.53” inches


With the forecast for the first week of December to be above average, it will take somewhat of a significant cool snap at some point this month to get December to average out to be normal.

As far as rainfall, with the El Nino in place, more active weather should be with us through the winter months of December through February.

disturbance just east of the windwards. seems to be building up convection.
Quoting 281. Naga5000:



That's a particularly nasty ethnic snarl word.

Though I have never seen the abbreviation before, I took it to mean Chinese Communists. How is that offensive?
Quoting 283. Qazulight:



Actually, ramping numbers down is both tough and not tough. The Data Scientist have been crunching numbers and have found that if you increase wealth, even a little, and/or because of this increase in wealth, you increase the survival rate of children, you get a reduction in fertility rates. Additionally, we see that the education of women, and it does not have to be formal, reduces fertility rates.

If you look at all of the developed countries, you see that they have been ramping down population for more than a generation. What is more, the "developing" countries have go to replacement value as far back as 20 years ago, with India being the last really big population with a positive growth rate.

Now, speaking in Macro economic terms, this ramping down is between dangerous and disaterous. There are two problems with this method. The first is you get an aging population, old people who need to be supported and not s lot of young people to support them. This is whole problem by itself. Then you have a real danger. We live in an economy that has a financial system based on fractional reserve lending. This system cannot tolerate deflation. It will kill that system. But, a ramping down of the population naturally causes deflation, as it produces over abundance. You end up with empty houses, and excess furniture,a nod left over appliances and so on. When you have falling values of underlying assets for the loans that have been made, the reserves held at the bank must go up, but, as the reserves have been run though the cycle many times. The leverage is enormous, and very quickly the math become untenable.

For more information on the demographics I recommend Gapminder.org and the TED talks linked there.

For more information on economics, you probably should start with the Sal Khan's videos on Kahn Academy, and the very entertaining Crash Course World history wouldn't hurt either. For up to date thinking on political economics, John Maudlin has a good, (and free weekly letter.) If you are fortunate enough to have spare money, Stratfor is an excellent source of international politics and diplomacy. At one time I had access to the Natioanl Intelligence Daily (The Top Secret Document produced by the intelligence community for the President) you would be almost as well informed with the intelligence gathered from Stratfor. (Then again, there were days I read the NID and it confirmed what I had listened to on the BBC hf radio I brought on line before I brought up classified circuits, so Stratfor may leave you better informed.

The problem is that even if we all died tommorow, the earth would still be warming and would do so for a long time. On the other hand, with challenges, come oppurtunity. It seems there will be a lot of oppurtunity in our future.
If we all died tomorrow and all fossil fuel burning ceased how could the earth continue warming?
Quoting 285. Kenfa03:

There are groups of people very concerned about the bird deaths.


There are groups of people very concerned that NASA faked the moon landing. Let me know when they start addressing the major killers of birds instead of using it as an argument against solar and wind which kill less. Thanks in advance.
Quoting 288. Greg01:


Though I have never seen the abbreviation before, I took it to mean Chinese Communists. How is that offensive?


Because you don't need to refer to anyone using created pejorative words that snarl the actual issues. Language is powerful, it would be wise to wield it with caution.
Anyone else catch Hannity with JB last night? Was sick to watch. No wonder half of America doesn't believe climate change is man driven. Most convoluted, anti-science, ignorance inducing drivel I've maybe ever heard. So alarming, in this day and age, that this is what's informing close to half of the masses in America. Fox should be ashamed, if only they were capable of such a thing.
Quoting 289. Kenfa03:

If we all died tomorrow and all fossil fuel burning ceased how could the earth continue warming?
From Skeptical Science:

"Individual carbon dioxide molecules have a short life time of around 5 years in the atmosphere. However, when they leave the atmosphere, they're simply swapping places with carbon dioxide in the ocean. The final amount of extra CO2 that remains in the atmosphere stays there on a time scale of centuries."
Quoting 253. Astrometeor:



There are ways to keep birds from dying.

Meanwhile you have tons and tons and tons of CO2 being pumped into the atmosphere and ocean, causing what could very well be the next mass extinction. And you are worried about a bird running into a bright light? /facepalm
Hi Astro ! A lot of us are concerned about the birds, but what we REALLY want to hear about is the cows. Now that Hurricane season has ended, can you tell us your cow story again? Please?
Quoting 272. islander101010:

awareness of gw grew with the development of the internet.
So a particular thing is only a problem because we know about it? Then, I say we shut down the internet! And TV! And radio! And telephones! And newspapers! And magazines! And let's also make it illegal to talk to one's neighbors. Why, we'll solve all the world's many woes at once! Out of sight, out of mind, amirite?! Amirite?!?!
Quoting 254. hydrus:

oilspills alone have killed more birds( among many other creatures ) then solar and wind will in a million years.


Awesome, the truth, how one does recognize it. How many birds are now extinct and how many more are headed that way due to man and his overconsumption? Windmills......please, we had that false argument here time and time again. Think Kenfa means well, he's not the typical denier. Just some of the points he brings up are the ones that are more popular and retold again and again in Right wing media. Say it enough and it becomes truth for those who refuse to seek because they'd rather be told what's the truth. Not saying that's Kenfa, maybe it use to be, be he seems to be seeking, albeit with a hill of information he's been fed over time that he must overcome to get to that pinnacle of truth.
On Hannity with JB last night they had some guy on the other end of the debate. JB's screaming about how the world is so............old and how it's been hotter, the old argument that works with only the COMPLETELY uninformed; the defender of AGW talked about ocean salinity in his one minute of response time. No one watching Fox regularly has any idea of how ocean salinity ties into CO2 levels. Hannity asking if scientists are lying to us and calling the defender a fool. End rant, just really bothers me this is allowed in America on a major broadcasting network. Spreading known lies, to further an agenda, that keeps the powers that be entrenched and the rich rich and Big Business doing whatever it wants at the cost of the environment and the people of the world.
Quoting 295. Neapolitan:

So a particular thing is only a problem because we know about it? Then, I say we shut down the internet! And TV! And radio! And telephones! And newspapers! And magazines! And let's also make it illegal to talk to one's neighbors. Why, we'll solve all the world's many woes at once! Out of sight, out of mind, amirite?! Amirite?!?!


SMH
Quoting 287. islander101010:

disturbance just east of the windwards. seems to be building up convection.


LOL


look at this 1st nothing is going too fourm in this kind of shear


Quoting 295. Neapolitan:

So a particular thing is only a problem because we know about it? Then, I say we shut down the internet! And TV! And radio! And telephones! And newspapers! And magazines! And let's also make it illegal to talk to one's neighbors. Why, we'll solve all the world's many woes at once! Out of sight, out of mind, amirite?! Amirite?!?!


Yeah, God forbid Colorado Bob and others are researching the truth and how the examples are endless. And then the Colorado Bob's of the world have the gall to share it to further the truth. If only no one knew the truth. Wonder who that would benefit?
Quoting 284. weathermanwannabe:

282. Stormwatch247
8:30 AM EST on December 01, 2015


The warm sst's across the equatorial belt in all basins produced plenty of storms this year so far including those two rare ones in the Middle East. Will be interesting to see how this pans out in the coming decades. Plenty of theories on GW and the impact on tropical storms (with some predicting for example for less frequent but more powerful Atlantic storms) but the jury is still out on that one. Just noting, as you did, that this strong El Nino year produced 11 storms in spite of the shear issues. Would also note that two of the Atlantic storms formed near the Bahamas with record sst's in that region. I am assuming, for the moment, that warmer sst's might produce more storms in the future rather then less.

I am looking forward to seeing what the next La Nina season looks like for the Atlantic.
What will happen when the seas start cooling again, due to cold PDO, and AMO cycles. The cold AMO cycle should return in a decade or so and the Pacific PDO is already starting to cool.
Quoting 301. NativeSun:

What will happen when the seas start cooling again, due to cold PDO, and AMO cycles. The cold AMO cycle should return in a decade or so and the Pacific PDO is already starting to cool.


Good point...............I have no idea what will happen then.
Quoting 296. DeepSeaRising:


I'm not so sure that he's not just a run-of-the-mill troll.
Quoting 285. Kenfa03:

There are groups of people very concerned about the bird deaths.


What about domestic cats? They kill around 200 million birds a year, plus hundreds of millions of other creatures.
Tilting at windmills...
The birds probably look upon these grayish wind farm hulks as forested resting places - so they fly into them.
Paint the windmills Dayglow Orange.
High clouds and warm temps yesterday in NW FL.
This shot is looking southward in Blue Mountain Beach, beautiful day but would like to be putting on long sleeves at some point!
One more thought: One man's perjorative is another man's petunia.
Quoting 305. Barefootontherocks:

Tilting at windmills...
The birds probably look upon these grayish wind farm hulks as forested resting places - so they fly into them.
Paint the windmills Dayglow Orange.


Interesting thought, wonder if it'd work. Maybe cats too?
Quoting 238. Kenfa03:

Why did my premium double for less coverage?

They didn't.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 301. NativeSun:

What will happen when the seas start cooling again, due to cold PDO, and AMO cycles. The cold AMO cycle should return in a decade or so and the Pacific PDO is already starting to cool.

The Earth will continue warming.

You're welcome.
Quoting 297. DeepSeaRising:

On Hannity with JB last night they had some guy on the other end of the debate. JB's screaming about how the world is so............old and how it's been hotter, the old argument that works with only the COMPLETELY uninformed; the defender of AGW talked about ocean salinity in his one minute of response time. No one watching Fox regularly has any idea of how ocean salinity ties into CO2 levels. Hannity asking if scientists are lying to us and calling the defender a fool. End rant, just really bothers me this is allowed in America on a major broadcasting network. Spreading known lies, to further an agenda, that keeps the powers that be entrenched and the rich rich and Big Business doing whatever it wants at the cost of the environment and the people of the world.


Any time I hear about Hannity the movie V for Vendetta immediately comes to mind. I wonder why?
Quoting 306. JNFlori30A:

High clouds and warm temps yesterday in NW FL.......but would like to be putting on long sleeves at some point!




Looks like you'll be doing that Thursday mornin' ;]

Haha yeah. I'm young, but I have been following this closely. Just reading comments in any news section scares the crap out of me. It's scary to know that these GOP candidates want to hold the highest office. It's not just about climate change. The words spewing from their faces are just hateful and un-factual more often than not. All it takes is a simple fact check. We live in a time where we have a plethora of information provided to us via Internet, etc. Americans refuse to believe truths. It stares us right in the face and yet, here we are. I am in class, so this rushed. I have much more to say, but I'm not going down that rabbit hole right now.
Quoting 212. Xyrus2000:



Oh my. You must be young.

I'm sorry to disillusion you, but I'm afraid this will be able to continue for some time. You see, in this country our elections have become very much like those elections for homecoming king and queen. The three C's: charisma, confidence, and cojones. You can be as dumb as a boot and still be elected by a landslide if you smile like Robert Redford, are as arrogant as and English nobleman, and can read sound bites from a teleprompter. It gets even easier when you have you're very own propoganda channel that passes itself off as a news network.

Say what you want about the RINOs, but they've done a masterful job of building up and maintaining a near fanatical base that think compromise is an idea invented by fascist socialist muslim terrorists. The DINOs only wish they could have that kind of following, and perhaps if they did then they'd have a chance. I just don't see that happening. Their following seems more resigned reluctance than energetic enthusiasm.

Whatever. Either way I don't see anything seriously being done in regards to climate change. If the RINOs win, they'll gut the EPA, keep idiots in charge of the science committees, set kids textbooks back to the dark ages, and continue to wage their war on science and education. If the democrats win, if it's anything less than a filibuster-proof majority then it will be a continuation of the dysfunctional useless crap we currently have now.

Yes, I'm a curmudgeony old cynic. Now get off my lawn!
Quoting 293. Neapolitan:

From Skeptical Science:

"Individual carbon dioxide molecules have a short life time of around 5 years in the atmosphere. However, when they leave the atmosphere, they're simply swapping places with carbon dioxide in the ocean. The final amount of extra CO2 that remains in the atmosphere stays there on a time scale of centuries."


From your link:

Edit: I meant to comment the blogger you were commenting to. Regardless of Obama care costs will rise. Longer life span, older population, chronic illnesses more prevalent, you get the point. Also, insurance companies need some sort of regulation that will stick. Just last week United announced they want out of the marketplace because their profits are "too low". http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/11/19/uni tedhealth-group-earnings-downgrade-obamacare-affor dable-care-act/76040322/Quoting 263. MahFL:



Because the insurance companies are greedy and the population is getting older, so health care costs will keep rising, as older people have more health problems.
Quoting 252. Kenfa03:

There will come a day when wind and solar will be blamed for killing too many birds and they will be shut down.
There will come a day you stop writing one sentence drive-by's too.
Quoting 301. NativeSun:

What will happen when the seas start cooling again, due to cold PDO, and AMO cycles. The cold AMO cycle should return in a decade or so and the Pacific PDO is already starting to cool.


The cold PDO cycle fromt he 50s to early 70s produced a cooling, not enough to counter the previous few decades warming but remarkable and enough to trigger popular press concerns of cooling and the resultant climate change issues from that (expanded westerlies, droughts, weaker monsoons .. ..) This did not gain wide traction in the scientific community but the cooling was notable.

Whe warm PDO cycle in the mid 70s to early 90s, wiped out this cooling and the 80s were the warmest decade of record to that time, eclipsed by the 90s ten years later.

The PDO cycle went back to cooler in the mid 90s and warming greatly slowed or "paused". It did not stop. The 2000s were again the warmest decade of record to that time.

We have just gone back to a warm PDO cycle and warming is accelerating. Superimposed on that is a burst of heating from El Nino so 2015 and 2016 will probably be record setting years for global temps. Recovery from El Nino will probably buy us a few years before we set another record after 2016
Quoting 308. DeepSeaRising:



Interesting thought, wonder if it'd work. Maybe cats too?
Yes, orange could work. Maybe a bright young ornithologist at UMich could study this idea. Whether some of you lke it or not, the bird-killing is a major obstacle to increased wind energy production. As soon as some one finds a creative solution that will keep birds away from windfarms, a whole new world of alternate energy will open.

Re: CATS? You're being silly, right? Or maybe you're writing in support of birds of prey. Where I live, birds of prey - same ones often caught in windmills - catch and eat cats. Dayglow orange cats would be easy targets. Yes, Oklahoma is about 9% powered by wind and more on the way.

Any argument about domestic cats killing birds is irrelevant to a discussion of creative thinking of possible ways to keep birds away from windmills. Apple-orange trickery. My comment at 305 is a creative thought aimed at a solution to a problem with wind power - which some of you do not see as a problem. Cats killing birds is natural. Windmills killing birds is man-made. Yeah, let's just kill birds... let's not find a middle ground. For some people, the trouble with orange windmills would be aesthetic. Bet those same people live in mini McMansions and wouldn't think of using public transportation - unless it's jet-powered.

Think solutions, people. Political posturing is so predictable - and boring.
Quoting 316. SecretStormNerd:

Regardless of Obama care costs will rise. Longer life span, older population, chronic illnesses more prevalent, you get the point. Also, insurance companies need some sort of regulation that will stick. Just last week United announced they want out of the marketplace because their profits are too low. http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/11/19/uni tedhealth-group-earnings-downgrade-obamacare-affor dable-care-act/76040322/
UnitedHealth, although it's a large company, is relatively a small time player in the exchanges. As the story noted, it only covers about half a million people so far. However, UnitedHealth decided to stick its toe in the water by offering some of the lowest cost silver plans. In doing so, all the sick people flocked to the plan, causing revenue and profits to be below expectations. This is going to continue to be a problem as those who want insurance are going to be sick while those who are healthy don't want to pay for it. The plan to make people pay a fine if they don't get insurance isn't working. The working poor know they can go to any emergency room and get free care regardless of their health insurance status. The whole system is going to need revisions before it has any chance of working.

Working link to the story