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Paris Agreement Becomes Official As Climate Change Hits U.S. State Ballots

By: Bob Henson 5:29 PM GMT on November 04, 2016

The first truly global agreement to reduce human-produced greenhouse gas emissions--a huge milestone in the effort to address climate change--went into effect on Friday, November 4, 2016. The Paris Agreement was forged at the 21st annual United Nations Conference of Parties meeting (COP 21) in December 2015. In order to become official, the agreement needed to be ratified by 55 nations representing 55% of human-produced greenhouse gas emissions. That goal was met in October when the European Union ratified the plan.

The Paris Agreement is weaker than the preceding Kyoto Protocol in that it doesn’t mandate emission cuts by international law. Instead, think of it more like a pot-luck dinner: each nation determines its own contribution and submits its plan in the form of an “intended nationally determined contribution” (INDC). The idea is that regular scrutiny of the plans, and the progress in meeting them, will provide enough international peer pressure to make the agreement work. Moreover, having virtually every country on board is a marked change from the Kyoto Protocol, which was not ratified by the United States and which mandated no reductions from China and India, thus leaving more than half of the world’s greenhouse emissions unchecked. Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use have more than doubled since the early 1970s.


Figure 1. The Eiffel Tower was illuminated in green light on November 30, 2015, on the first day of the COP 21 meeting in Paris. The tower and the Arc de Triomphe were scheduled to be lit in green on Friday night, November 4, 2016, in honor of the Paris Agreement going into force. Image credit: Stephane de Sakutin/AFP/Getty Images.

As stated by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Paris Agreement’s central aim is “to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change by keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5°C.” The goals seem more ambitious than ever in light of the stunning global temperature jump of the last three years. For the period January through September, NOAA data show that temperatures have risen about 1.2°C in the last 100 years. In 2016 alone, we’re running a full 1°C above readings that prevailed in the 1940s to 1960s, and every year is boosting the atmosphere’s temperature-goosing storehouse of carbon dioxide. The weekly average of atmospheric carbon dioxide measured at Hawaii’s Mauna Loa Observatory dropped below 400 parts per million in late August 2016. It’s virtually certain to be the last weekly value below 400 ppm in any of our lifetimes.

Where do the national pledges stand?
The independent organization Climate Action Tracker is carrying out detailed analyses of each nation’s INDCs. Thus far, they’ve analyzed the INDCs from more than 30 countries representing about 70% of the world’s population and about 80% of global emissions. Their work suggests that the plans submitted thus far will cut global emissions, but not by enough to meet the ambitious Paris targets. The group has rated the INDCs of 5 nations as “sufficient” in helping the world meet the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement. However, the INDCs from 11 other nations and the European Union were rated “medium,” while those from 14 countries were deemed “inadequate”.

Sufficient: Bhutan, Costa Rica, Ethiopia, The Gambia, Morocco
Medium: Brazil, China, European Union, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Norway, Peru, Philippines, Switzerland, United States
Inadequate: Argentina, Australia, Canada, Chile, Japan, New Zealand, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates
Not rated: Nepal, Gabon

Climate Action Tracker has a page with capsule summaries that link to the full analyses for each country, including details on how each analysis was carried out. The group takes into account how much each nation’s plan is likely to cut emissions, as well as “whether a government is doing its ‘fair share’ compared with others toward the global effort to limit warming below 2°C.” Because each nation has leeway to forge its own plan, the assumptions and techniques in each plan vary from country to country, making it a challenge to compare apples with apples as well as oranges, cantaloupes, strawberries, and everything else.

For example, in the large, heavily forested United States, the longstanding difficulty in assessing how much net carbon is taken up by vegetation and soil makes a big difference. A recent change in methodology has increased the amount of carbon dioxide projected to be taken up by forests and land-use changes by the year 2025 from 33% to 50%. This, in turn, reduces the amount of emission cuts required to meet U.S. targets by more than 4%. Carbon emissions from the U.S. have already dropped by a few percent in the last decade. Some big factors in the mix include a flattening of vehicle miles driven, a large-scale shift from coal to natural gas for electricity generation, and the growth of energy-efficient technologies such as cars that get better gas mileage and LED light bulbs. As shown in Figure 2, further progress will hinge in large part on whether the Clean Power Plan is implemented. That plan, put forth by the Environmental Protection Agency in 2014 to limit carbon pollution from power plants, was put on hold by the U.S. Supreme Court in February 2016, pending judicial review. (Needless to say, there are major differences in where the U.S. presidential candidates stand on climate change policy.)


Figure 2. The United States’ carbon emissions since 1990 (black line at left) and the projected emissions through 2030 based on current policy (blue extension], which assumes that the U.S. Clean Power Plan and at least some parts of the U.S. Climate Action Plan will be implemented. Also shown are the projected emissions if the Clean Power Plan is not implemented (black dashed line) and if the plan and all major parts of the preexisting Climate Action Plan are fully implemented (blue dashed line). Image credit: Climate Action Tracker.


Climate-related items on U.S. state ballots
There are two especially noteworthy items relevant to climate change on the state-level ballots in next week’s U.S. general election. In Washington, voters will consider a Carbon Emission Tax and Sales Tax Reduction Initiative. If it passes, this will be the first-ever carbon tax in a U.S. state. The idea behind such a tax--implemented thus far in only a handful of nations and provinces around the world--is to prod emission reductions by putting a cost on the act of adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere through fossil fuel use. The proposed tax in Washington is based on an influential carbon tax implemented in neighboring British Columbia in 2008. It’s crafted as a revenue-neutral approach, where revenue brought in through the carbon tax is returned to taxpayers in the form of personal and business tax cuts and credits (as has been the case in British Columbia), including a sales tax reduction.

The Washington carbon tax has drawn support from dozens of earth, atmospheric, ocean, and space-science faculty at the University of Washington, as well as the eminent former NASA scientist James Hansen, a longtime proponent of putting a price on carbon. In a Seattle Times op-ed, Hansen said: “Washington [state] has a singular opportunity, with approval of Initiative 732, to address the threat of climate change and alter the ineffectual course of national climate policies. As if that isn’t enough, Washington voters also would be sending a broader message to our nation’s capital: The public demands an alternative to putrid politics-as-usual and is taking action.” The initiative is opposed by a number of industry groups and labor organizations, as well as by several environmental groups that would prefer to see revenue from any carbon tax used more specifically to advance clean-energy and climate-justice efforts.

At the other end of the nation, residents of the Sunshine State will vote on the Florida Solar Energy Subsidies and Personal Solar Use, Amendment 1. This is the latest skirmish in a heated debate playing out in states nationwide on how ever-growing residential solar power should be accommodated by the nation’s energy grid. In many states, “net metering” allows homeowners with solar panels to sell unused power back to their electric utility, typically at retail rates. This happens most often on hot, sunny summer days, when the utilities can use the extra power to combat spikes in power demand from air conditioning, so in many ways it’s a win-win arrangement. However, in some areas, homeowners sell back enough power to reduce their electric bills to little or nothing (or even pocket a small dividend at times). This has prompted claims that such users aren’t paying their fair share to keep the overall grid functioning. More broadly, the growth of rooftop solar is shifting the balance of energy production away from large utilities.


Figure 3. Logos for Consumers for Smart Solar (left), which supports the solar power amendment in Florida, and Floridians for Solar Choice (right), which opposes the amendment.

The Florida amendment is a cleverly constructed two-parter. The official ballot summary opens with a carrot to fans of solar power: “This amendment establishes a right under Florida's constitution for consumers to own or lease solar equipment installed on their property to generate electricity for their own use.” The second part takes a different tack: “State and local governments shall retain their abilities to protect consumer rights and public health, safety and welfare, and to ensure that consumers who do not choose to install solar are not required to subsidize the costs of backup power and electric grid access to those who do.”

The main coalition supporting the amendment, the grass-rootsy-sounding Consumers for Smart Solar, has spent more than $21 million, with more than $19 million of that total provided by four utilities. The main opposition group, Floridians for Solar Choice, is vastly underfunded by comparison. However, virtually every newspaper in Florida that’s weighed in on the amendment has come out against it.

Ballotpedia has extensive background on both the proposed Washington initiative and the proposed Florida amendment. Utilitydive.com has an excellent summary of various solar-related state legislative developments as of early 2016.

We’ll be back with a new post on Monday. Have a great weekend, everyone!

Bob Henson


Figure 4. SolarCraft workers Craig Powell (left) and Edwin Neal install solar panels on the roof of a home in San Rafael, California, on February 26, 2015. According to a survey report by the Solar Foundation in 2015, the solar industry employs more workers than coal mining, with nearly 174,000 people working in solar compared to close to 80,000 mining coal. Image credit: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images.

Climate Change Politics

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I have never made a "Thanks for the update, Bob!" comment before....
Thanks for the update, Bob!
:D
That Florida thing is really interesting. Gives people another reason to get solar pannels.
Webcam courtesy of webcam-hd.fr & meteo-paris.com.

Average surface air temperatures for October 2016 - Copernicus.eu.
Quoting 2. RobbieM2000:

That Florida thing is really interesting. Gives people another reason to get solar pannels.


Anyone from Florida on that knows how much going solar will increase home owner's insurance?
I worked with a consultant from Colorado that installed solar and his insurance went up 6000.00 a year.
One hurdle I can think of is that some subdivisions do not allow for home owners to install solar ...how crazy is that?
Quoting 4. justmehouston:



Anyone from Florida on that knows how much going solar will increase home owner's insurance?
I worked with a consultant from Colorado that installed solar and his insurance went up 6000.00 a year.
One hurdle I can think of is that some subdivisions do not allow for home owners to install solar ...how crazy is that?


Yes I heard there was a poison pill of solar on the Florida ballot that people are inadvertently voting for thinking its pro-solar. Commercials paid for by energy companies but that is not disclosed during the ads.
Quoting 5. Snacker2:



Yes I heard there was a poison pill of solar on the Florida ballot that people are inadvertently voting for thinking its pro-solar. Commercials paid for by energy companies but that is not disclosed during the ads.


Yes, that what the final piece of Bob's post is all about. However one can research on Ballotpedia (as Bob above references) for information.
Quoting 6. justmehouston:



Yes, that what the final piece of Bob's post is all about. However one can research on Ballotpedia (as Bob above references) for information.


Sadly, it will likely pass. Florida has some serious political problems that are environmentally deranged. What was it that their governor did? Made it illegal for state employees to discuss climate change? Talk about a serious waste of legislative bandwidth when no action is taken to fix education and make jobs. I also think it was Marco Rubio that put the poison pill in the 2015 Omnibus bill to increase insurance rates this year.
"The Florida amendment is a cleverly constructed two-parter. The official ballot summary opens with a carrot to fans of solar power...[T]he he second part takes a different tack."

Yep. Welcome to the United States of Scamerica, where we no longer present the arguments, evaluate the evidence, and reach a reasoned conclusion. In place of that antiquated system we now cynically manufacture "consent" throught PR, trickery, and outright lies. I'm sure this new system will be superior.

So, energy companies, what happens if I don't even hook up to the grid? Do you no longer have to maintain the grid? I ask because it sounds to me like you want me to provide you with low-cost (or free) electrical generation while still figuring out a way to charge me out the nose.
Thanks for the Update Mr. Henson..
Quoting 8. Misanthroptimist:

"The Florida amendment is a cleverly constructed two-parter. The official ballot summary opens with a carrot to fans of solar power...[T]he he second part takes a different tack."

Yep. Welcome to the United States of Scamerica, where we no longer present the arguments, evaluate the evidence, and reach a reasoned conclusion. In place of that antiquated system we now cynically manufacture "consent" throught PR, trickery, and outright lies. I'm sure this new system will be superior.

So, energy companies, what happens if I don't even hook up to the grid? Do you no longer have to maintain the grid? I ask because it sounds to me like you want me to provide you with low-cost (or free) electrical generation while still figuring out a way to charge me out the nose.


I'm sorry what is wrong with this?

“State and local governments shall retain their abilities to protect consumer rights and public health, safety and welfare, and to ensure that consumers who do not choose to install solar are not required to subsidize the costs of backup power and electric grid access to those who do.”

Quoting 10. VAbeachhurricanes:



I'm sorry what is wrong with this?

“State and local governments shall retain their abilities to protect consumer rights and public health, safety and welfare, and to ensure that consumers who do not choose to install solar are not required to subsidize the costs of backup power and electric grid access to those who do.”



What's wrong with it is 1) it is unnecessary since consumers are already protected under State law; 2) it now allows power companies to undermine (or perhaps eliminate entirely) net-metering in the interest of "protecting the grid."

Any time you see a Constitutional Amendment that duplicates what's already in the law, you can be sure that something nefarious is afoot.
Quoting 11. Misanthroptimist:


What's wrong with it is 1) it is unnecessary since consumers are already protected under State law; 2) it now allows power companies to undermine (or perhaps eliminate entirely) net-metering in the interest of "protecting the grid."

Any time you see a Constitutional Amendment that duplicates what's already in the law, you can be sure that something nefarious is afoot.


The amendment says allows "State and local goverments" why would that allow the utility companies to do anything? Are they owned by the state in Florida?
When I brought this up in the last entry,.....it was the Florida and Nevada govt along with the utility companies plans to deter and delay solar power

We the people are the power.


They pay lobbyist to do nothing for solar.

Try asnd get a solar lobbyist tomorrow.

I dare anyone.

They don't exist.


😯
Quoting 12. VAbeachhurricanes:



The amendment says allows "State and local goverments" why would that allow the utility companies to do anything? Are they owned by the state in Florida?

Question: Why don't you research it? Then you don't have to depend on a third-party (me, for example).
Quoting 11. Misanthroptimist:


What's wrong with it is 1) it is unnecessary since consumers are already protected under State law; 2) it now allows power companies to undermine (or perhaps eliminate entirely) net-metering in the interest of "protecting the grid."

Any time you see a Constitutional Amendment that duplicates what's already in the law, you can be sure that something nefarious is afoot.



The lack of voter and the populace attention to such draconian legislation is staggering.


They are being hoodwinked.


Way too easily.

😕
Quoting 14. Misanthroptimist:


Question: Why don't you research it? Then you don't have to depend on a third-party (me, for example).


Thus my last post, in action.
Quoting 15. Patrap:




The lack of voter and the populace attention to such draconian legislation is staggering.


They are being hoodwinked.


Way too easily.

😕


I don't live in Florida why would I possibly know the ins and outs of this amendment. Sorry for asking questions.
Elon Musk unveils Solar Roof (2016.10.28)
During a press event at Universal Studios in L.A., Elon Musk announces that Tesla will build and sell its own line of solar panels with integrated batteries. Coupled with the also unveiled PowerWall 2, it will allow residential homeowners to replace their entire roof with solar panels, making it much simpler for homes to be entirely powered by solar power.
Sadly, even with the Paris agreement, we're unlikely to stop a rise above 2C unless huge action is taken. The ideal goal of 1.5C is very unlikely. In fact there was a recent review by the UN regarding carbon plans:

UN review says carbon plans fall well short of climate goals

A UN review of national plans to cut carbon says they are well short of the levels needed to keep the rise in global temperatures under 2C.

The report finds that by 2030 the amount of CO2 entering the atmosphere will be some 25% above that mark.

The analysis takes into account the pledges that countries have made under the Paris climate agreement.


Link

I think we'll see temperatures rise 3-4C by the end of the century. Unless we invent some sort of cost efficient carbon storage process that can be rolled out on a large scale.
Quoting 7. Snacker2:



Sadly, it will likely pass. Florida has some serious political problems that are environmentally deranged. What was it that their governor did? Made it illegal for state employees to discuss climate change? Talk about a serious waste of legislative bandwidth when no action is taken to fix education and make jobs. I also think it was Marco Rubio that put the poison pill in the 2015 Omnibus bill to increase insurance rates this year.


It is close on yes/no and it needs more than a simple majority. Since it is a Constitutional Amendment it needs 60% to pass.
I'm too lazy to learn about the full implications of the Florida amendment. Mainly because I don't know anything specific about existing legislation about electricity there. Partly because my English is not perfect. Therefore I make the following assumptions:

1) All over the state, for each immovable property, there is one company having monopoly on electric grid. The amount of payment from consumer to the company due to power transmission service is somehow regulated.
2) The same company that owns the grid is not necessarily the nominal electricity producer, from which the consumer actually buys electricity.
3) The "utility", to which a solar power producing household sells its surplus electricity, is the grid owner, not any power plant owner.
4) Households typically buy their electricity with a fixed unit cost. The same rate at which surplus solar power is then sold.

In that case, the status quo is utterly wrong. In electricity market, the actual value of electricity changes constantly. The more prevalent solar power becomes, the lower is the value of electricity on sunny days. Yet power generating companies have to maintain the same capacity to account for demand during nights and cloudy days. The role of the grid company, as I understood, is bizarre. If they have to receive any surplus solar power, they should get it without having to pay. As such monopoly companies are likely to be closely regulated, it could be made a legal requirement, that the revenue they get by selling this solar power they receive, should be used to invest in energy storage methods. That would further decrease the supply/demand fluctuations caused by household solar power. Without causing any financial harm to those households, that do not create solar power.

I'm very sceptical of any viability of large-scale electrochemical energy storage methods, at least in short term. But at least grid owners in eastern coastal cities could create some "centralized air conditioning" systems. They could have tanks full of fresh water, and circulate cold saltwater from depths of ocean through those tanks, using the surplus solar power. Any property owner could join into the network that distributes that fresh water. A more energy-effective system for indoor air cooling than any refrigeration cycle.
Quoting 19. Envoirment:

Sadly, even with the Paris agreement, we're unlikely to stop a rise above 2C unless huge action is taken. The ideal goal of 1.5C is very unlikely. In fact there was a recent review by the UN regarding carbon plans:

UN review says carbon plans fall well short of climate goals

A UN review of national plans to cut carbon says they are well short of the levels needed to keep the rise in global temperatures under 2C.

The report finds that by 2030 the amount of CO2 entering the atmosphere will be some 25% above that mark.

The analysis takes into account the pledges that countries have made under the Paris climate agreement.


Link

I think we'll see temperatures rise 3-4C by the end of the century. Unless we invent some sort of cost efficient carbon storage process that can be rolled out on a large scale.


Should we cross the 2.5C barrier then it may not matter if a carbon storage process is cost effective. It would have to be used regardless of costs in order to fray further costs going forward. My bigger fear is that we would begin to resort to use some form of geoengineering that never really had a possibility of working and could actually exasperate the problem.
From the Florida League of Womens Voters guide...
(Pay special attention to Supporters/Opponents at bottom...seems like all the big utility companies want a YES on this...but all the clean energy/environmentalist folk want a NO; also, all the urbane, hip and witty folk that I know voted NO!!!)

Amendment 1 (Nov. 8 ballot)

Solar Energy

Source: Citizen Initiative

Synopsis: Amendment 1 is the utility-backed response to a third solar initiative that failed to make the 2016 ballot but would have allowed Floridians to buy power directly from third-party solar providers. The full ballot title for Amendment 1 is “Rights of Electricity Consumers Regarding Solar Energy Choice.” It essentially would enshrine in the state Constitution existing laws on solar energy, which opponents say have blocked solar growth in favor of existing utility companies like Duke Energy and Florida Power & Light by helping ensure their monopoly on the sale of power to Floridians. Supporters counter that the amendment is needed to ensure state and local governments can pass regulations that protect solar-power consumers as well as utility customers. A central issue is Florida’s current ban on the third-party sale of electricity. In most other states companies are allowed to install solar panels on homes or businesses and then sell the power directly to the consumer, bypassing utilities altogether. Florida is one of only a handful of states that prohibit consumers from buying power directly from third-party solar providers. A divided Florida Supreme Court approved the ballot’s wording in a 4-3 vote on March 31, 2016. You can read the justices’ majority and dissenting opinions here. If passed, Amendment 1 would take effect immediately.



A YES vote on Amendment 1 would:
•Put existing statutory language into the state constitution, making it difficult to change future solar energy policy in statute due to a possible conflict with the constitutional language adopted.
•Establish a constitutional rather than statutory right for consumers to own or lease solar-power equipment on their property to generate electricity for their own use, leaving out the ability for third-party providers to install solar equipment on their homes or businesses and then sell that power directly back to the consumers, bypassing the major utilities.
•Create an assumption that those who use solar power are being subsidized by non-solar utility customers for the cost of providing backup power and electric grid access and not paying enough for the upkeep of the transmission and distribution system. It then creates a constitutional mandate that state and local governments regulate solar power generators and users to correct the subsidy, potentially leading to increased costs to solar users.
•Not explicitly prevent Florida consumers from entering into contracts with a third-party solar provider, but possibly erecting barriers through its definitions and mandate for regulation.



A NO vote on Amendment 1 would:


•Leave in Florida statutes the right for consumers to own or lease solar-power equipment on their property to generate electricity for their own use.
•Leave open the possibility that homeowners and businesses could buy or lease solar-power equipment.
•Halt a potential constitutional barrier to new laws that would broaden the solar-power market by allowing solar companies to sell electricity directly to consumers.
•Protect existing rules that allow net metering, where utilities credit a retail rate to customers generating excess solar power that is returned to the electric grid.



Supporters: Duke Energy, Florida Power & Light Co.; Gulf Power Co.; Tampa Electric Co.; 60 Plus Association; The Partnership for Affordable Clean Energy (PACE); National Black Chamber of Commerce; Florida Council for Safe Communities; Floridians for Government Accountability; Florida Farm Bureau; Florida Professional Firefighters; Florida Tax Watch; Manatee Black Chamber of Commerce; Florida Black Chamber of Commerce; International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers; Florida State Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, the Honduran-American Chamber of Commerce, and the South Florida Puerto Rican Chamber of Commerce; Central Florida, Jacksonville, and Pinellas County Urban Leagues; Florida State Conference of Branches and Youth Units National Association for the Advancement of Colored People; The National Congress of Black Women, Inc.


Opponents: Floridians for Solar Choice; EarthJustice; Florida Solar Energy Industries Association; Southern Alliance for Clean Energy; League of Women Voters of Florida; AFL-CIO; American Institute of Architects, Florida; Audubon of the Western Everglades; Audubon Society of the Everglades; AWAKE Palm Beach County; Caloosahatchee River Citizens Association; for a complete listing, check here…


Quoting 20. nrtiwlnvragn:



It is close on yes/no and it needs more than a simple majority. Since it is a Constitutional Amendment it needs 60% to pass.


What you say is true. I still would not count on a <60% approval to defeat this. A low voter turn out (unlikely) or not voting on this amendment (more likely) could end up passing this amendment. How are the votes counted on this if a person votes straight ticket and then walks out? That is another thing that straight ticket voters need to consider.
Amendments are tricky and I had several co-workers asking me whether to vote for or against the Florida one; the interests that be only give voters a snapshot of the whole one and the devil is in the details (and the drafters). I broke down the pros and cons and voted against it; I felt that this Amendment subsidized the rich who could afford solar panels and not the common man..............I would vote however for an economic based one that would give tax breaks to companies willing to come into Florida to open-up a solar cell manufacturing plant which provided training and jobs for Floridians
way out in time but............................................... ...................................
Will also note that FPL is already one of the largest solar power utilities in the Country and their own efforts have a lot of benefits....................But I would still like to know where they source the panels and whether they are manufactured in the US by American workers.


http://www.gainesville.com/news/20160706/fpl-trie s-to-reassure-residents-over-solar-farm

Energy generated from the solar farm would go out onto the grid and directly be used by FPL customers. FPL makes the case the farm would benefit all of Florida by providing clean energy that helps the state keep emissions low and in line with federal standards. The hope is also the more solar exists, the cheaper it gets for everyone.

Since 2001, FPL’s solar investment has saved customers more than $8 billion on fuel and stopped more than 95 million tons of carbon emissions from entering the environment, according to a flier FPL made available during the workshop. By year’s end, FPL’s goal is to double Florida’s solar capacity.

Quoting 24. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



What you say is true. I still would not count on a <60% approval to defeat this. A low voter turn out (unlikely) or not voting on this amendment (more likely) could end up passing this amendment. How are the votes counted on this if a person votes straight ticket and then walks out? That is another thing that straight ticket voters need to consider.


By straight ticket I assume you mean somehow selecting all of one party with a single action. I have never had that ability in Florida in my 40 years of voting, you have to select for each office or question.
Everyone have a safe weather weekend; nice mild weather this weekend for the SE but the drought issues continue to be a source of concern...............We really need several rain makers across Cali and the Southern tier of Conus:

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database
Current U.S. Drought Monitor


Quoting 26. LargoFl:

way out in time but............................................... ...................................

Is that tropical? Or is it a noreaster?
Not a cloud in the sky in S C IL today, went 4 above earlier projected high of 62, had that changed by 1 p.m., when already at 64 w/ dropping dew pts. Saw 30.4" then as well, now 30.39" & 45 dp, very light N wind. Basically showing same in 10 day, though trending a little closer to avg toward end. Slight rain chance Tues.

I can understand not wanting to pay retail for excess electric generation on net metering, but I do think it should be above wholesale, because the panels do reduce peak grid demand, reduce need to fire up older less efficient peakers, (though new gas generators are changing that game) and may negate need to up size distribution lines further down the road, thus saving the utilities some capital costs. Then, there are the environmental benefits...
Quoting 31. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


Is that tropical? Or is it a noreaster?

Noreaster - it isn't isolated enough with the wind field to be tropical, it is getting into the prime season for noreasters, and the wind field doesn't look tropical at all.
How does the shameless solar sham called Question 1 down there in Scott-Land (Florida) not surprise me? Not to mention Dr. Masters's calling the latest Paris climate agreement "world wide" since we in the age of Trumpism, whether he is elected or not, will likely never cooperate. But on a more positive note, glad tropical season is winding down and we were not hit! :-)
Quoting 28. nrtiwlnvragn:



By straight ticket I assume you mean somehow selecting all of one party with a single action. I have never had that ability in Florida in my 40 years of voting, you have to select for each office or question.


Where can you do that?

I can vote all one party, but I gotta select each one. I know people that vote that way. Can't say I always do though.
36. IDTH
Good evening everyone. As you all may know I only comment during Hurricane Season and seeing as it looks to have come to a close I would just like to say thank you all for being great on this blog. It's truly a great blog to learn about tropical weather and to gain a better understanding of it and it's why I am so glad I come here every season to learn so much.

Hurricane Matthew was truly something I'll never forget on this blog as everyone watched it's rapid intensification occur. 2016 was truly a year of hair pulling forecasts but we stuck together and came together when it mattered.

I'll talk to you all next season, until then, peace and make sure to hold down the fort.
Quoting 31. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


Is that tropical? Or is it a noreaster?
does he have a model for next August?
38. vis0

Quoting 17. VAbeachhurricanes:



I don't live in Florida why would I possibly know the ins and outs of this amendment. Sorry for asking questions.
Of course first learn the details of laws in your areas, but i think its good to know laws elsewhere specially if they can also put into motion in your area AKA those other areas might be test areas.  Lobbyist influence not just how things in Washington, DC flow (mainly cause the people have become brain lazy) but use research (in many cases research the public pays for)  to try laws that are meant to help those they represent (greed) THEN if no one challenges THOSE laws in THOSE states the same or similar laws are passed in states that would have turned down that law.  Similar to how kids say Ma or Pa i want that BECAUSE ALL THE OTHER kids have it.  Then lawyers for greedy companies/officials  defend the rules/laws that help the greedy by saying folks in so-in so state did not object, when in reality many folks seem to care only if its tasty and if its free. (next for cat6™ become the first website that one can taste (its already quasi-free)...where the sideboard?

VOTE and Verify on Nov 8th
Quoting 35. Dakster:



Where can you do that?

I can vote all one party, but I gotta select each one. I know people that vote that way. Can't say I always do though.


In Texas we can check one box that selects all the candidates in the party of our choice.
I should add, that is true for Harris county. Don't know about the others.
why cant ya just go off the grid and supply all your own energy from solar/wind for your personal use for free minus the setup to do so
Patented ALEC tactics.

"try laws that are meant to help those they represent (greed) THEN if no one challenges THOSE laws in THOSE states the same or similar laws are passed in states that would have turned down that law.'
In Florida they passed a law that everyone has to be connected to the grid.
Quoting 41. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

why cant ya just go off the grid and supply all your own energy from solar/wind for your personal use for free minus the setup to do so

Quoting 41. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

why cant ya just go off the grid and supply all your own energy from solar/wind for your personal use for free minus the setup to do so


Most likely, because wind and solar power production depends on weather and time of day. To maintain supply during all times, there has to be lots of energy storage, a huge investment. Those eco-friendly people like it better, if the power company has to take their excess solar power, pay for it at retail rate, even if above the market rate. And of course the power company has then to make the investments needed to store any excess energy, which is shown in prices of both "solar" and "non-solar" consumers.
Hey fellow bloggers, just passing by to say what a wet October, we have had here in PR. We have had countless reports of many rivers out of there banks, mudslides and lots of flooding. Well looks like November is coming in like a lion, precipitation wise, as models continue to indicate a very wet pattern across our area, this weekend especially early next week. I would not be surprise if we go under a Flash Flood Watch again.

Here's our Forecast Discussion from the NWS:

National Weather Service San Juan PR
202 PM AST Fri Nov 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Upper level long wave trough with axis extending south
across the local area in the northern Caribbean. A strong energy
impulse exiting the Atlantic seaboard moving eastward into the
north Atlantic. abundant deep layer moisture across the northeast
Caribbean.


&&

.DISCUSSION...The energy/short wave exiting the Atlantic seaboard
will result in the long wave trough...mentioned above...deepening
across the eastern Caribbean. This will in turn contribute to
further destabilize the local atmosphere through the weekend and
into the early part of next week. while the upper trough
will provide the lifting mechanism...abundant moisture will also
provide the fuel for a rather wet period through at least the
middle part of next week. Models continue to suggest a rather wet
Sunday through Tuesday period. Too early to tell precipitation
amounts for the early part of next week...but if current trend
persists...this bears watching...especially since grounds are
already saturated across Puerto Rico and the USVI.

Also look at the current radar, and its only Friday night. Looks like its going to be unsettled here next couple of days. CaribBoy, if you around, I think you are you are going to get you fair share, as models take this towards your area throughout the weekend and early next week, as well. ;)


Quoting 7. Snacker2:



Sadly, it will likely pass. Florida has some serious political problems that are environmentally deranged. What was it that their governor did? Made it illegal for state employees to discuss climate change? Talk about a serious waste of legislative bandwidth when no action is taken to fix education and make jobs. I also think it was Marco Rubio that put the poison pill in the 2015 Omnibus bill to increase insurance rates this year.

Sadly, Marco will most likely be voted in. AGAIN!
This is a little off topic, but I think at least a couple of you would look at it:

220 ‘Significant’ Pipeline Spills Already This Year Exposes Troubling Safety Record

Link

Apologies if it IS too off topic. I see people talking about a lot of things connecting to climate change, and so, relatedly, concerns for a degrading world in general.
quote 23. miamivu ... Thank you for the information.
Quoting 48. MontanaZephyr:

This is a little off topic, but I think at least a couple of you would look at it:

220 ‘Significant’ Pipeline Spills Already This Year Exposes Troubling Safety Record

Link

Apologies if it IS too off topic. I see people talking about a lot of things connecting to climate change, and so, relatedly, concerns for a degrading world in general.

Link doesn't work.
Voted no to the Amendment
quote 29. nrtiwlnvragn

Thank you for that explanation.
The trouble with Solar in Illinois, is that it would take about twenty years to pay for a system, small or large, because rebate programs and tax credits are underfunded. Why should we support solar? For the same reason that we support oil companies. Presumably because they are providing a benefit to all of us by providing a source of power.
Without some subsidies, solar panels are impractical in Illinois.
We are experiencing one of our latest first-frosts in memory... our tomatoes are still growing. They're not producing much, due to the short days, but they haven't been frostbitten.
Quoting 35. Dakster:



Where can you do that?

I can vote all one party, but I gotta select each one. I know people that vote that way. Can't say I always do though.



Quoting 40. RitaandIke:



In Texas we can check one box that selects all the candidates in the party of our choice.
I should add, that is true for Harris county. Don't know about the others.


STRAIGHT TICKET VOTING STATES

@Rita - state laws govern the voting process. It is consistent across the entire state.
I just finished "After The Flood", and it really is, in my humble opinion, a fine contribution to the fight against CC.

I remember seeing some criticisms here on the blog and I would like to address my take on the ones that I remember.

The first was that he was on some sort of ego-trip trying to flash his influence. I really don't think that that is the case at all. My money would say that he did not put this together but that rather something like the White House asked him if he would help get the message out. Film-makers and actors do NOT get to see the President and certainly not the Pope! Additionally, this film is addressed to the common Jane and Joe, not to scientists. Leonardo is featured in the film in such a way that the viewer identifies with him at an unconscious level. So the thing is experienced as " 'I' got to see the president and the pope', if that makes sense to you, further facilitating message reception and retention. And this is also why the film doesn't go too heavily into the science. Most people are very poorly educated in science, and while most of you get that message on a regular basis, I am sure, you might not understand what it is like to be them, and how they process, IF they process it all, facts, and their scientific interpretation. The people behind the film DO.

By the way, as well, I am sure that, these days, every science degree must require at least one course in human communication. ....Certainly advanced degrees! But no more than this. Certain professions such as counseling and social work get much deeper into communication, but it is more about listening effectively. If you think of it, and actor is a kind of professional communicator, one who, as a matter of fact, does all the talking in the communication dynamic. And that is exactly what Science has been lacking in its attempt to educate the public on this issue.

All this is just my perception. No 'somebody has to be right' games for me, Thanks.

Thanks again to all of you bloggers out there. This is an interesting group to be experiencing all this with, and I appreciate your tolerance of non-science professionals.
Quoting 50. oldnewmex:


Link doesn't work.


My apologies. I'll try again and check it before I leave. There's so much OTHER news these days it is almost irrelevant, but having posted it once.....~

Link
Quoting 27. weathermanwannabe:

Will also note that FPL is already one of the largest solar power utilities in the Country and their own efforts have a lot of benefits....................But I would still like to know where they source the panels and whether they are manufactured in the US by American workers.



Inshort, the answer is no: Hanwha to Sell NextEra Solar Panels in Record 1.5-Gigawatt Deal

FPL is a subsidiary of NextEra, Inc. At least on paper, both companies are headquartered in Juno Beach, FL.

Who says "It ain't easy being green?" - well, except for Kermit.

These are its total shareholder returns this past decade:

2014: annualized returns of 28.0%
last 3 years: annualized returns of 22.5%
last 5 years:annualized returns of 15.4%
last 10 years: annualized returns of 30.0%
Total shareholder returns include both share price appreciation and dividends received by investors.





There are so many ignoramuses in the US Congress I don't see anything being done to curtail global warming until seas have risen by hundreds of feet and it's too late. Peace.
Quoting 36. IDTH:

Good evening everyone. As you all may know I only comment during Hurricane Season and seeing as it looks to have come to a close I would just like to say thank you all for being great on this blog. It's truly a great blog to learn about tropical weather and to gain a better understanding of it and it's why I am so glad I come here every season to learn so much.

Hurricane Matthew was truly something I'll never forget on this blog as everyone watched it's rapid intensification occur. 2016 was truly a year of hair pulling forecasts but we stuck together and came together when it mattered.

I'll talk to you all next season, until then, peace and make sure to hold down the fort.
You are a very smart poster, I am thinking of doing the same, as it is getting harder to sit through all the climate change arguments on, what was once a nice year round weather blog.
Quoting 4. justmehouston:



One hurdle I can think of is that some subdivisions do not allow for home owners to install solar ...how crazy is that?


Same as some Housing Associations don't allow you to hang laundry outside to dry.
Seems fairly straight-forward...If you are selling excess power to the utility and buying power from the utility to cover a shortage, you are connected to the grid-and must pay some fair share of the cost of maintaining the grid.

If you have a decent tax liability, and can afford to install your own system, you can take the 30% investment tax credit (ITC) against your federal tax liability. Improvements in storage could/would allow a disconnect from the grid.

The solar ITC was extended in 2015 using the following schedule:

2016 – 2019: The tax credit remains at 30 percent of the cost of the system.
2020: Owners of new residential and commercial solar can deduct 26 percent of the cost of the system from their taxes.
2021: Owners of new residential and commercial solar can deduct 22 percent of the cost of the system from their taxes.
2022 onwards: Owners of new commercial solar energy systems can deduct 10 percent of the cost of the system from their taxes. There is no federal credit for residential solar energy systems.

If you do not have sufficient tax liability you can "carry over" in subsequent years.



The problem with power purchase agreements (PPA's) or solar leases-The PPA company is not in the business of providing or installing solar power. They are in the business of financing solar power.

Low up front costs allow anyone to get solar for a cheaper rate than the utility and the PPA/Lease company gets the tax credit for each installed system. The payments from the lessee typically increase over the life of the long term lease agreement. By bundling up thousands of these lease agreements and offering them up to Wall-Street investors somebody is going to make some money...as long as the lease payments can service the debt.

Sounds alot like the housing market crash...If the PPA/Lease company folds, who will maintain the installed system? And...you probably still need to be connected to the grid.

If the tax credit is allowed to expire without another round of extensions, the growth in the "solar bubble" could pop.

I don't know, maybe it can work.

Quoting 60. NativeSun:

You are a very smart poster, I am thinking of doing the same, as it is getting harder to sit through all the climate change arguments on, what was once a nice year round weather blog.


Unable to handle a discussion on climate change? Well, we'll see you next season. Have fun.
Hello guys back under my original handle. Now it's time for some great winter and severe weather.
Quoting 44. flowcool0:

In Florida they passed a law that everyone has to be connected to the grid.





No they didn't Link


Quote --> "....states do not want the people to go off the grid is because large corporations will lose their ability to control citizens."


So there, it all boils down to corporations & their profits.......and using the local courts & law enforcement to implement their profits.
Quoting 44. flowcool0:

In Florida they passed a law that everyone has to be connected to the grid.




I am not sure that is entirely correct. Florida and most municipalities/states adhere to the The International Property Maintenance Code, and can be modified for local climate conditions.

No specific law was passed.

A ruling was issued in the case of a woman in Coral City, FL living off the grid that required her to be hooked up to the municipal sewage system as specified in The International Property Maintenance Code adopted in Florida.
Depending upon where you live in Florida, it may or may not be possible to have a septic tank (depends upon the hydrology of that region). That was the case in this instance.

Adoptions of the codes are voluntary, and can be modified by the municipality (within reason, I suppose).

It does seem as if the city was tyrannical in their "enforcement" efforts. Absolutely ridiculous.

Off the Grid in a Florida Suburb, Fighting Municipal Code
What happens when you want to get off the grid, but the grid won’t let you go?


Quoting 65. KuCommando:




No they didn't Link


Quote --> "....states do not want the people to go off the grid is because large corporations will lose their ability to control citizens."


So there, it all boils down to corporations & their profits.......and using the local courts & law enforcement to implement their profits.


You really linked to that article as a news source?
Quoting 60. NativeSun:

You are a very smart poster, I am thinking of doing the same, as it is getting harder to sit through all the climate change arguments on, what was once a nice year round weather blog.

Like it or not global warming and the climate change it is causing have a profound effect on weather that is increasing over time. You can't separate one from the other.
Is it safe to say hurricane season is over?

There are potentially 2 big winners who nailed the hurricane forecast this year, they are listed as #35 and #85 in my list
First time ever someone could get it right

Let see what happens for remainder of the year
Totally agree, but at the beginning it seemed like the UN was behind this also.
Only once did he talk about himself, and that was to say his footprint wasn't the best.
The people he interviewed were not guided by his questions, but gave there opinions mostly.
I was surprised about how much cows contributed to the problem overall.
I cut back back on red meat a few years ago cause it was causing stomach problems.
Now I feel better that I made a contribution that way.
BTW, we have been raising chickens for awhile also!


Quoting 56. MontanaZephyr:

I just finished "After The Flood", and it really is, in my humble opinion, a fine contribution to the fight against CC.

I remember seeing some criticisms here on the blog and I would like to address my take on the ones that I remember.

The first was that he was on some sort of ego-trip trying to flash his influence. I really don't think that that is the case at all. My money would say that he did not put this together but that rather something like the White House asked him if he would help get the message out. Film-makers and actors do NOT get to see the President and certainly not the Pope! Additionally, this film is addressed to the common Jane and Joe, not to scientists. Leonardo is featured in the film in such a way that the viewer identifies with him at an unconscious level. So the thing is experienced as " 'I' got to see the president and the pope', if that makes sense to you, further facilitating message reception and retention. And this is also why the film doesn't go too heavily into the science. Most people are very poorly educated in science, and while most of you get that message on a regular basis, I am sure, you might not understand what it is like to be them, and how they process, IF they process it all, facts, and their scientific interpretation. The people behind the film DO.

By the way, as well, I am sure that, these days, every science degree must require at least one course in human communication. ....Certainly advanced degrees! But no more than this. Certain professions such as counseling and social work get much deeper into communication, but it is more about listening effectively. If you think of it, and actor is a kind of professional communicator, one who, as a matter of fact, does all the talking in the communication dynamic. And that is exactly what Science has been lacking in its attempt to educate the public on this issue.

All this is just my perception. No 'somebody has to be right' games for me, Thanks.

Thanks again to all of you bloggers out there. This is an interesting group to be experiencing all this with, and I appreciate your tolerance of non-science professionals.
Quoting 66. daddyjames:



I am not sure that is entirely correct. Florida and most municipalities/states adhere to the The International Property Maintenance Code, and can be modified for local climate conditions.

No specific law was passed.

A ruling was issued in the case of a woman in Coral City, FL living off the grid that required her to be hooked up to the municipal sewage system as specified in The International Property Maintenance Code adopted in Florida.
Depending upon where you live in Florida, it may or may not be possible to have a septic tank (depends upon the hydrology of that region). That was the case in this instance.

Adoptions of the codes are voluntary, and can be modified by the municipality (within reason, I suppose).

It does seem as if the city was tyrannical in their "enforcement" efforts. Absolutely ridiculous.

Off the Grid in a Florida Suburb, Fighting Municipal Code
What happens when you want to get off the grid, but the grid won’t let you go?





Not this story again. There is a whole lot more to it than what you posted. She was using the sewer without paying for it. The house was in deplorable shape and was unsafe... And that is only the tip of the iceberg of problems.

Besides global warming, the Earth's magnetic field was cracked by a solar flare... This is one issue we can't protect ourselves from or prepare for.

https://www.rt.com/viral/365328-magnetic-field-cr acked-solar/

Link
Yes the unfavorable MDR conditions in Aug/Sep sunk my forecast. There's always next year. I think I was 17-9-4. Would be great to see someone nail it.

Quoting 69. MaxWeather:

Is it safe to say hurricane season is over?

There are potentially 2 big winners who nailed the hurricane forecast this year, they are listed as #35 and #85 in my list
First time ever someone could get it right

Let see what happens for remainder of the year

I don't have solar and I live in Florida.....I suspect the COST of buying and installing a solar system on my roof would be really high, in the many thousands....my question is this......how structurally sound are these systems and how will they hold up to Tropical storms and Hurricanes?....my neighbor asked me the same thing and tropical storms is why He isn't going over to solar....in that respect I'm going to agree with him and am NOT going solar.
its the end of hurricane season and the beginning of global warming season on the blog...uugggg
Daylight Saving Time - How Is This Still A Thing? (with apologies to barbamz and cows) Warning: There is some adult language beeped out!

Quoting 75. pingon:

Daylight Saving Time - How Is This Still A Thing? (with apologies to barbamz and cows) Warning: There is some adult language beeped out!


Just keep it year round.
Quoting 73. LargoFl:

I don't have solar and I live in Florida.....I suspect the COST of buying and installing a solar system on my roof would be really high, in the many thousands....my question is this......how structurally sound are these systems and how will they hold up to Tropical storms and Hurricanes?....my neighbor asked me the same thing and tropical storms is why He isn't going over to solar....in that respect I'm going to agree with him and am NOT going solar.


I've got a solar system on the south side of my house. Yes, it was expensive at the time it was installed on the house and it was very expensive to update the system this year because of years of wear and tear.

My system did fine during hurricane Charley when trees were blown down all over the neighborhood. I would be more afraid of a bad hail storm, but we just don't get hail here. In 20 years it's only hailed 1 time here at the house (about pea size).

I wouldn't want to put a solar system on my roof if I lived in central Oklahoma. It would probably get destroyed the first Spring season.
get a major hurricane? doubt if the roof top solar would make it through
Quoting 73. LargoFl:

I don't have solar and I live in Florida.....I suspect the COST of buying and installing a solar system on my roof would be really high, in the many thousands....my question is this......how structurally sound are these systems and how will they hold up to Tropical storms and Hurricanes?....my neighbor asked me the same thing and tropical storms is why He isn't going over to solar....in that respect I'm going to agree with him and am NOT going solar.

I have the same concerns. In my neighborhood where I've lived for 30 years, there were several neighbors who had solar powered hot water heaters. In 2004 with hurricanes Frances and Jeanne, all but one of those neighbors lost their solar panels AND suffered roof damage and leaks when those panels came off or were damaged. This is a genuine concern for sure.
Quoting 66. daddyjames:



I am not sure that is entirely correct. Florida and most municipalities/states adhere to the The International Property Maintenance Code, and can be modified for local climate conditions.

No specific law was passed.

A ruling was issued in the case of a woman in Coral City, FL living off the grid that required her to be hooked up to the municipal sewage system as specified in The International Property Maintenance Code adopted in Florida.
Depending upon where you live in Florida, it may or may not be possible to have a septic tank (depends upon the hydrology of that region). That was the case in this instance.

Adoptions of the codes are voluntary, and can be modified by the municipality (within reason, I suppose).

It does seem as if the city was tyrannical in their "enforcement" efforts. Absolutely ridiculous.

Off the Grid in a Florida Suburb, Fighting Municipal Code
What happens when you want to get off the grid, but the grid won’t let you go?



Quoting 71. Dakster:



Not this story again. There is a whole lot more to it than what you posted. She was using the sewer without paying for it. The house was in deplorable shape and was unsafe... And that is only the tip of the iceberg of problems.......




Well, for sure this 57 y/o widow was a mess. Presently, she's living in an apartment in Cape Coral.....because the property in question was foreclosed on in late 2014. A check of the public records shows past foreclosures & evictions dating back to 1997.

Funny thing, she founded & was president of a corporation called "Off the Grid Living, Inc"......now how you gonna file incorporation papers w/ the state & live off grid @ the same time?

More relevant, how ya gonna live off grid in a subdivision within incorporated city limits? Look @ where this place was Bing Birdseye -- Link & Google driveby Feb 2015 -- Link ......catching rainwater to flush the toilet into the sewer hookup & lifting WiFi from Tire Kingdom out your backyard. This gal was trying to stave off foreclosure/tax deed stuff in a uniquely "Florida whack-a-doo" ( see "Florida Man" Link) sort of way.


Fact of the matter, Cape Coral should not exist.....it was raised out of coastal swampland which is why there's canals all over the place.....and was ground zero in Florida's foreclosure crisis 8-10 years ago......so bad that was the foreclosure courts were named "The Rocket Docket".....running the people in & out in minutes.

In corporate America, there ain't no way anyone can live "off grid". Sure, out in the country where I am, you can have a hand pump well and septic tank.....tell the electric company to remove the power poles on the property (easement), and forego any modern conveniences.......but ya still gotta pay property tax. Until you're OFF the tax rolls as PRIVATE and not listed in any county database (PRIVATE), you're ON THE GRID.


All my various rooftop solar (panel and hot water) went through Matthew just fine. With a solar hot water heater you get a bigger than average tank so even without electricity to warm it or a pump to get it out of the ground I still had a few hundred gallons of usable hot water after the storm.

As for home owners insurance I think the hot water heater raised it $12. Raised the home value by ~$12,000.

Saw on the local news the Firefighters are no longer supporting Amendment 1.

Quoting 74. Tampa969mlb:

its the end of hurricane season and the beginning of global warming season on the blog...uugggg

Se não gostes, não olhes.
Good Morning Folks...........In looking through all the comments on the solar issue and legislation since yesterday afternoon a few things are clear. The major utilities are not going to give up their monopolies which will also include solar generation and it is shame that Asia (Korea in the case of FPL as noted earlier and China as well) have gained a monopoly of sorts as well over the manufacture solar panels due to lower labor costs and their aquisition, in the case of China, of mineral and mining rights around the world for many of the base materials used in making the panels.

Shameful to see that Asian countries are sourcing the panels, which are bought cheaply by US based utilities companies, when the US should be making and supplying the panels using American labor........We should lobby the government and out politicians to try to close this gap in the coming decades.
Quoting 78. islander101010:

get a major hurricane? doubt if the roof top solar would make it through


Went through Charley and the back side of Wilma. Both storms were strong enough to blow concrete tiles off the roof in areas.
During Charley my anemometer stopped working when I got a gust over 90 mph.

Our business in Cape Coral lost its roof during Charley. So if it had a solar system on the roof, it would have been destroyed along with the roof. So it all depends on the structure and how well it's constructed.
But our business in Cape Coral was along a destructive path possibly from a tornado. A local fire department just down the street reported a 148 mph wind gust during Charley.
Quoting 71. Dakster:



Not this story again. There is a whole lot more to it than what you posted. She was using the sewer without paying for it. The house was in deplorable shape and was unsafe... And that is only the tip of the iceberg of problems.

Besides global warming, the Earth's magnetic field was cracked by a solar flare... This is one issue we can't protect ourselves from or prepare for.

https://www.rt.com/viral/365328-magnetic-field-cr acked-solar/

Link


Yes, I know. That was why the magistrate issued the ruling that she had to comply and hook up to the municipal sewage system.

The fact that the city changed the code and then tried to enforce the new code did not help their case (33 code violations dismissed against her).

It does appear as if the whole thing kinda is personal between her and the city. I did read through various reports before settling on posting this one as it was the most complete as to what happened between the two.

Not taking sides in the whole thing. According to the code, she has to be hooked up to the sewage system. She does not have to be hooked up to electrical service.

There is no law against living "off the grid". As many sites on the web wrongly indicate.
Quoting 25. weathermanwannabe:

Amendments are tricky and I had several co-workers asking me whether to vote for or against the Florida one; the interests that be only give voters a snapshot of the whole one and the devil is in the details (and the drafters). I broke down the pros and cons and voted against it; I felt that this Amendment subsidized the rich who could afford solar panels and not the common man..............I would vote however for an economic based one that would give tax breaks to companies willing to come into Florida to open-up a solar cell manufacturing plant which provided training and jobs for Floridians
I've spoken with several early-voting acquaintances who said they were unsure, so voted 'Yes" on Amendment One because "it sounded reasonable". My guess is that, sadly, it will get the required 60% to pass. Our only hope, then was that the State Supreme Court removes the measure from the ballot. But, alas, that didn't happen, so it appears the energy industry's deceptive and underhanded lobbyists have struck yet another blow against the environment, common sense, the people of Florida, and democracy.

quoting 60. NativeSun

Well this is a climate change blog.

quoting 83. weathermanwannabe
Shameful to see that Asian countries are sourcing the panels, which are bought cheaply by US based utilities companies, when the US should be making and supplying the panels using American labor........We should lobby the government and out politicians to try to close this gap in the coming decades.

Decades? Too long. Let's close the gap in a couple of years!
Nothing against alternative energy sources, but they must use common sense and be for the right reasons. Man-made global warming, for example, is not a good reason, as it is impossible to determine in the short 35-year history of satellite global weather data whether man is affecting climate at all, let alone to the extent that politicians and market manipulators are pushing this so-called "climate crisis". Calculate how long your off-grid energy source will take to pay for itself, and make sure it is insurable! Consider other types, such as the WePower Vertical Axis Wind Turbines, which are cylindrical, need only 5-6mph wind, are quiet, need no maintenance, and can generate up to 12kW. They can be piggy-backed. Consider what kind of storage batteries to get and do math on the cost. You will need an inverter to convert DC output from energy device to AC power at 120 and 240 volts for home or business. Consider using fuel cells, and do some research as there are several types. They're good enough for NASA, why not us? The best reason is that as long as you know you will not move and the prices fall in line so you can save money on your electric bill, go for it. You get government tax incentives, too. But please don't go off-grid just because of this unproven man-made GW scare. Weather patterns are in constant change, as is solar output. So in a whopping 35-year history we had the warmest global temperature year on record! Wow. Hold old is the earth in comparison? I know I am speaking to some smart people here, and granted, I'm no genius. I hope the info I gave helps for those who can afford off-grid alternatives. Also, check out Argonne which developed a nuclear reactor that cannot melt down, explode, and can use non-weapon fuel and even use spent fuel which already exits! Most of the Nuclear Regulatory Agency requirements for safety wouldn't even apply to this FAST reactor. We should have them all over the place. Guess who cut the funding for Argonne back in the 1990's? That's right... Bill Clinton. That last name has a familiar ring to it, eh?
Quoting 56. MontanaZephyr:
By the way, as well, I am sure that, these days, every science degree must require at least one course in human communication. ....Certainly advanced degrees!


Well, my MSc in Energy Engineering does not include any such courses... lol... perhaps it's intentional?

The green movement is influential in political arena. As such, it has many ways to influence the contents of degree programs.

If each energy engineer was a master speaker, able to captivate the masses, green movement would be doomed in many aspects. The masses could be ensured about how minimal the risks associated with nuclear power are. They would get to know, how important it is to have much of reservoir capacity above hydroelectric dams. They would get to know, how the world market works, and would learn to apply that to CO2 emissions. (No. If you leave one ton of CO2 unemitted, it doesn't mean, that global emissions will get smaller by one ton. The reduction would be less than one milligram. Unless you own a fossil fuel reserve.) They would appreciate human nature as a force driving future emission scenarios, and understand the futility of individual contribution, since seven billion random individualities cancel each other out pretty effectively.

BTW, winter has arrived. Lol at this associated video. :D Less than a centimeter of snow, but below-freezing temperatures have lasted for three days already, and are expected to last for at least nine days more.



This pic was earlier today. Now it's 5:30 pm and as dark as night.

If some of you wants the winter and the snow, please come and take them away. I'm waiting for spring.
lol. Last night's EURO seems to form "TS Otto" at 8 days in the central Gulf of Mexico, before turning to the northeast, becoming an extratropical nor'easter after landfall in the Florida panhandle as it strengthens through baroclinic processes. Ida in 2009 was somewhat similar, although it formed farther south in the Caribbean.
#88


WUWT is 6 b!ocks down and to the Left.


We don't do deep derp here,...

Try the phish too,.it will compliment your lemon of a post.



Quoting 79. RickWPB:


I have the same concerns. In my neighborhood where I've lived for 30 years, there were several neighbors who had solar powered hot water heaters. In 2004 with hurricanes Frances and Jeanne, all but one of those neighbors lost their solar panels AND suffered roof damage and leaks when those panels came off or were damaged. This is a genuine concern for sure.

TY that was a great example of what Could happen,I myself am not going the solar route,..roof top solar anyway..perhaps in the future they will come up with a more advanced stand alone unit.
The FPL utility have obviously successfully programmed the voters there.

Congrats to them.


The sunshine state ?

Really.


Some are not wanting solar due to tropical storms?


Madness,..

....corporate madness and wanton ignorance is easily done there.


So glad we retiring to Norway soon.




Quoting 63. daddyjames:


Unable to handle a discussion on climate change? Well, we'll see you next season. Have fun.
Facing the reality of a very likely dire future is extremely difficult emotionally for many people. Denial is a defense mechanism, and it is part of our genetic and cultural heritage as humans.

It is probably a wise decision for deniers to jump ship if they cannot handle being castigated for their refusal to accept the reality of AGW/CC and it's very likely consequences. Those of us who can handle reality and deal with denial - especially the fossil fuel industry funded lies and misinformation - will continue to follow the evolution of climate science.

I assume that most visitors and participants here, like me, will continue support those who who study AGW/CC and help to formulate solutions and mitigation efforts. They science that supports AGW/CC is robust, and the consensus is real, but there is still much to learn. I expect that Dr. Masters, Mr. Henson, Dr. Rood, and the other professionals who blog here will continue to inform us - and facilitate lively and productive discussion.
Quoting 93. Patrap:




I tried to convince my friend, who owns a car and holds a driving license, to have a road trip with me to Tromso this summer. Didn't succeed. I even could've paid all the gas needed, that costing less than 200 euros. But now I've found also other people interested in visiting Tromso, so perhaps I'll succeed next year. The aforementioned friend also knows, how to use a rifle. Given that, we could also make the short flight to Svalbard and explore places there freely. I have never been north of 65 degrees north, so there would be multitude of places to experience on such journey.

Edit: this is one interesting route. (t = an hour, Finnish "tunti")
Quoting 88. stratcat:

Also, check out Argonne which developed a nuclear reactor that cannot melt down, explode, and can use non-weapon fuel and even use spent fuel which already exits! Most of the Nuclear Regulatory Agency requirements for safety wouldn't even apply to this FAST reactor. We should have them all over the place. Guess who cut the funding for Argonne back in the 1990's? That's right... Bill Clinton. That last name has a familiar ring to it, eh?

FAST reactors also have serious issues, such as the need for higher enrichment levels, MAJOR security concerns due to how they work, and how differently they work still requires extensive training and safety protocols.
Quoting 93. Patrap:

The FPL utility have obviously successfully programmed the voters there.

Congrats to them.


The sunshine state ?

Really.


Some are not wanting solar due to tropical storms?


Madness,..

....corporate madness and wanton ignorance is easily done there.


So glad we retiring to Norway soon.








What part of Norway are you moving to?
Quoting 81. Skyepony:

Saw on the local news the Firefighters are no longer supporting Amendment 1.



Still running adds here in Dade supporting a Yes vote.
Quoting 88. stratcat:


I have several comments, but only time for one; My Dad was an Argonne scientist in the 1950s and 1960s and then Nixon cut their funding by half! (He was in biological and medical research.) Politics trumps science every time.
Quoting 99. Grothar:




What part of Norway are you moving to?



Northern......

Above the circle most def.

Near the exercise bivouac in Winter 84'

🌉⚓🎷💼👢🐡🐲
Quoting 102. Patrap:




Northern......

Above the circle most def.

Near the exercise bivouac in Winter 84'

🌉⚓🎷💼👢🐡🐲


They talk funny there.
104. elioe
Quoting 103. Grothar:



They talk funny there.


Du mener norsk bokmål? Davvisamegiella? Vai paikallista suomea?

There are at least three languages there. :P
Quoting 90. HurricaneFan:

lol. Last night's EURO seems to form "TS Otto" at 8 days in the central Gulf of Mexico, before turning to the northeast, becoming an extratropical nor'easter after landfall in the Florida panhandle as it strengthens through baroclinic processes. Ida in 2009 was somewhat similar, although it formed farther south in the Caribbean.


The euro is very biased towards systems.Strange seeing it form a system
Quoting 104. elioe:



Du mener norsk bokmål? Davvisamegiella? Vai paikallista suomea?

There are at least three languages there. :P


Ja, det vet jeg. Jeg er Norsk. Jeg var med Pat i Tromso i 1984. Snakker du svensk ogsa?
Indian Hills PWS, Jurupa Valley, CA

Hanging in the 80's no RAIN in sight...
109. elioe
Quoting 107. Grothar:



Ja, det vet jeg. Jeg er Norsk. Jeg var med Pat i Tromso i 1984. Snakker du svensk ogsa?


Eftersom jag är från Finland, det var obligatoriskt för mig att lära mig svenska. Därför pratar jag mycket bättre svenska än norsk bokmål. Men dessa två är så lika att mycket möjligt skulle jag förstå sådana norska dialekter, dom är uttalade liksom svenska. :D
Quoting 86. Neapolitan:

I've spoken with several early-voting acquaintances who said they were unsure, so voted 'Yes" on Amendment One because "it sounded reasonable". My guess is that, sadly, it will get the required 60% to pass. Our only hope, then was that the State Supreme Court removes the measure from the ballot. But, alas, that didn't happen, so it appears the energy industry's deceptive and underhanded lobbyists have struck yet another blow against the environment, common sense, the people of Florida, and democracy.



We had a similar measure pass here in Wisconsin in order to tip the balance of judicial power to a heavily Republican group of justices. Nobody knew what it was about because it was worded nicely and well funded by dark money.
Quoting 100. lat25five:


Still running adds here in Dade supporting a Yes vote.


The firefighters have also demanded that the political committee stop running those ads. Some of the ads sort of imply solar panels could be a fire hazard too. The Florida Professional Firefighter's Union got used on this one.
Quoting 109. elioe:



Eftersom jag är från Finland, det var obligatoriskt för mig att lära mig svenska. Därför pratar jag mycket bättre svenska än norsk bokmål. Men dessa två är så lika att mycket möjligt skulle jag förstå sådana norska dialekter, dom är uttalade liksom svenska. :D


Jo, du skal forsta dem veldig godt.

Remember, Vote NO on amendment 1 :)
Quoting 75. pingon:

Daylight Saving Time - How Is This Still A Thing? (with apologies to barbamz and cows) Warning: There is some adult language beeped out!




I agree - why are we still doing this... Alaska was close to voting it out and then businesses complained that it would be too complicated unless everyone else did the same thing. Needs to be a national question on a national election.

Someone that is for this, please speak up so I can understand why we are still doing this. I'm never 100% set on my opinions - always open to new ideas.

Grothar - Something is wrong with your keyboard, your posts are being turned into unreadable words. :)
Quoting 114. Dakster:



I agree - why are we still doing this... Alaska was close to voting it out and then businesses complained that it would be too complicated unless everyone else did the same thing. Needs to be a national question on a national election.

Someone that is for this, please speak up so I can understand why we are still doing this. I'm never 100% set on my opinions - always open to new ideas.

Grothar - Something is wrong with your keyboard, your posts are being turned into unreadable words. :)


We need to change the time back to Standard Time and then quit flip flopping it each year. This was started by the Germans in WW1 to save energy. It is said to be an economic negative and as was pointed out, it gets people hurt when the change over happens. It is a last Century Idea that needs to get tossed. Write your Congressperson and demand it.
Quoting 87. ChiThom:

quoting 60. NativeSun

Well this is a climate change blog.

quoting 83. weathermanwannabe
Shameful to see that Asian countries are sourcing the panels, which are bought cheaply by US based utilities companies, when the US should be making and supplying the panels using American labor........We should lobby the government and out politicians to try to close this gap in the coming decades.

Decades? Too long. Let's close the gap in a couple of years!

Never said this was a climate change blog, it use to be a very good weather blog, until the climate change folks came along.
A look at the current global sea surface temperature anomalies; the North Atlantic "cold blob" has seen a resurgence lately as it commonly has been appearing over the autumn and winter months. Also I've noticed that the "warm pool" in the western Atlantic is no longer present like it has been for much of the past few years. The PDO signature also is looking more negative than it has been in recent years. Meanwhile, Atlantic MDR SSTs remain above normal.
Quoting 115. PedleyCA:



We need to change the time back to Standard Time and then quit flip flopping it each year. This was started by the Germans in WW1 to save energy. It is said to be an economic negative and as was pointed out, it gets people hurt when the change over happens. It is a last Century Idea that needs to get tossed. Write you Congressperson and demand it.
No, lets write our congressmen and tell them to keep it year round. I don't mind getting up when it's dark outside, and hate it when it's dark at 5:30 in the afternoon.
NASA World(re)View. Made with NASA Worldview, Terra/MODIS - natural colors satellite images, captured on Nov 5. Click bolded text to display each picture (they will be automatically deleted from postimage.org servers after 7 days) :

1) Awesome-looking clouds north of Robinson Crusoe Island (West of Chile, Pacific Ocean).
2) Wildfires in Nantahala National Forest. (Crews battling fires (...) - news)
3) Impressive dust plume over the Mediterranean Sea.
I'm voting NO because it seems to me the constitution is the wrong place to work this out.
Quoting 116. NativeSun:

Never said this was a climate change blog, it use to be a very good weather blog, until the climate change folks came along.

This is the blog of Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson. They choose the blog topics, which sometimes deal with climate change, and, since they are conscientious professional meteorologists, they accept the science and the reality of AGW. Is your comment a backhanded attempt at criticizing the authors of this blog? If so, it is very bad manners, on the order of accepting an invitation to a dinner party and then criticizing the menu while at the table. Bad manners, but very much in keeping with your modus operandi.
Ironic that our local government who runs the utilities as well, just introduced some solar tax crap that makes installing solar panels for residential homes much less appetizing.
Ok, I'll ask. That cold streak across the equatorial pacific - it sure looks man made. It fits with the ideas of Bill gates. Is that what is is? Are ships pumping up colder water in a regular fashion? I might be helpful in avoiding Hawaiian (the ones that the AF doesn't dampen, deflect or desymmetrize) and Asian hurricanes, but aren't cyclones how the ocean cools itself? If thats something that has been around since the 80s and before, somebody please say so.
PS. Despite scandinavian heritage, I don't understand it's languages. Clue us in Grother? I rarely comment but I do watch the activities of the CC deniers like your young EE friend.
As a Florida Resident I voted NO on the Solar amendment.
Good Afternoon WU,

I've only recently returned home in Seattle after spending the majority of October in Ohio. It appears I was lucky enough to experience record heat in Ohio, while simultaneously missing a record wet October in Seattle. What are the odds?

In any case, the very wet October has implications.

Seattle NWS Discussion Excerpt:

Record rainfall in the month of October has left area soils very wet and susceptible to shallow landslides in favored locations. The USGS- based accumulative precipitation and soil wetness indices started this current rain event near thresholds for landslides, and additional rain has now pushed indices back above thresholds for shallow landslides. This will renew an increased chance of triggering isolated landslides.



Links to the USGS charts mentioned in the excerpt can be found here. Notice that we are already above the antecedent thresholds in the AWI (Antecedent Wetness Index), but below the rainfall intensity forecast. The AWI is over a 4 day cumulative period, while the Rainfall intensity is over hours. Thankfully, today's rain wasn't as heavy as forecast.
Can or has anybody explained the existence of the big cool water area right at the equator in the Pacific (as evidence by post 177 and most other water temp mappings)? Or is this an invisible elephant in the room. If I've missed the memo excuse me but what the hell is that?
That was post 117 that shows the cool water area. There has to be an explanation, or is this silence like the silence I get when I elude to other weather manipulation phenomena?
Quoting 116. NativeSun:

Never said this was a climate change blog, it use to be a very good weather blog, until the climate change folks came along.


I know I haven't been here since the very beginning of the blog, even as a lurker. (I lurked for awhile, before joining). However, Dr. Masters along with some of his colleagues I believe started this blog and they have always put climate change into their blog posts. Climate change, regardless of whether you believe it's caused by man or not, is kinda part of weather. In over simplistic terms Long term weather = climate.

Was supposed to snow today, but doesn't look like it will, maybe tomorrow or maybe when Pedley gets rain.
OK so there are paid climate change denial activists on this blog, meteorologists in general won't touch any subject to do with government or otherwise funded weather manipulation phenomena for fear of effecting their relationship with their god NOAA and its AF overlord, and the good people on this blog must be on the east coast enjoying their Saturday evenings. Got it. See you next hurricane season. Until then
Aloha
How to Witness Climate Change
The emissions reductions provided by governments right now in 2015 are totally insufficient in limiting global temperature rise and ensuing risks to 2 degrees celcius.
Quoting 118. NativeSun:
No, lets write our congressmen and tell them to keep it year round. I don't mind getting up when it's dark outside, and hate it when it's dark at 5:30 in the afternoon.
Jimmy Carter tried that and got ripped for it what with kids waiting on the street in the dark for school buses. But I see your point of view: "If it does not affect me, I'm okay with it."
Quoting 123. olsenovation:

Ok, I'll ask. That cold streak across the equatorial pacific - it sure looks man made. It fits with the ideas of Bill gates. Is that what is is? Are ships pumping up colder water in a regular fashion?

We are just coming out of a pretty strong El Nino. It's perfectly normal for the earth to kick up both those crazy looking Tropical Instability Waves and some cooler waters in the Equatorial Pacific Region after.
#127 olsenovation

Can or has anybody explained the existence of the big cool water area right at the equator in the Pacific

The plot is showing temperature anomalies i.e. departures from a base line temperature set, although you will have to check the source of the image to find out which particular reference temperature set has been used in the anomaly calculations. Main page is here, I think (Operational SST Anomaly Charts for 2016):

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anoma ly/index.html
Quoting 123. olsenovation:

Ok, I'll ask. That cold streak across the equatorial pacific - it sure looks man made. It fits with the ideas of Bill gates. Is that what is is? Are ships pumping up colder water in a regular fashion? I might be helpful in avoiding Hawaiian (the ones that the AF doesn't dampen, deflect or desymmetrize) and Asian hurricanes, but aren't cyclones how the ocean cools itself? If thats something that has been around since the 80s and before, somebody please say so.
PS. Despite scandinavian heritage, I don't understand it's languages. Clue us in Grother? I rarely comment but I do watch the activities of the CC deniers like your young EE friend.


It's called a La Nina.
I voted No on Amendment 1. It immediately smelled funny to me, because it starts out by establishing a right which is not in jeopardy in the first place, and then goes to establish that non-solar users will not subsidize solar systems or their "backup power". What this means in more clear terms is that the power company can say that grid tie-in would cost non-solar customers more money, so they can decline to allow grid tie-in, or charge the solar customer some ridiculously high surcharge for it. And secondly, it gives government an excuse never to give any kind of incentive for people to install solar, since that would be tax money from non-solar citizens.

It's a very anti-solar proposal.
Look at this area for possible tropical development next year.

Quoting 128. Dakster:



I know I haven't been here since the very beginning of the blog, even as a lurker. (I lurked for awhile, before joining). However, Dr. Masters along with some of his colleagues I believe started this blog and they have always put climate change into their blog posts. Climate change, regardless of whether you believe it's caused by man or not, is kinda part of weather. In over simplistic terms Long term weather = climate.

Was supposed to snow today, but doesn't look like it will, maybe tomorrow or maybe when Pedley gets rain.


Don't hold your breath on the Snow.....
139. beell
Generically, wrt to SST anomalies, Tropical Instability Waves.

Specifically, Kelvin Helmholtz Instability

Arising at the interface of a density difference (cold/warm water).

Another look

The atmosphere (also a fluid) displays a similar phenomenon on occasion.











Quoting 137. Grothar:

Look at this area for possible tropical development next year.




Sort of putting it all out there.
Quoting 102. Patrap:




Northern......

Above the circle most def.


We made it up to the Lofoten Islands this summer. Whole area is so lovely!
Instead of a completely revenue neutral approach to a carbon tax, another idea would be to reimburse 90% back to energy consumers / tax payers and put 10% towards clean energy projects. It would still add up over time and make a big difference yet the cost for individuals would be negligible.
Quoting 138. PedleyCA:



Don't hold your breath on the Snow.....


Yep... same boat as you with rain...
144. bwi

Quoting 143. Dakster:



Yep... same boat as you with rain...


Bet you get snow before I get Rain here. Low 56.9F/High 81.7F
Quoting 142. pkatet19:

Instead of a completely revenue neutral approach to a carbon tax, another idea would be to reimburse 90% back to energy consumers / tax payers and put 10% towards clean energy projects. It would still add up over time and make a big difference yet the cost for individuals would be negligible.


Something is better than Nothing....


NCEP GFS 0.5deg 7 day forecast mean 2m air temperature anomalies.
Climatology for 1981-2010 reference period (5-day running mean) / Approximate grid box anomalies.

Source / credit : karstenhaustein.com / Karsten Haustein.
Quoting 145. PedleyCA:



Bet you get snow before I get Rain here. Low 56.9F/High 81.7F


That is certainly possible. I can't argue with you there. Afterall you live in a desert.
Quoting 148. Dakster:



That is certainly possible. I can't argue with you there. Afterall you live in a desert.


I live near the Desert, but not in one. Already up to .72" since 10/1/2016 Dakster, YGM...
Quoting 149. PedleyCA:



I live near the Desert, but not in one. Already up to .72" since 10/1/2016


Another year or so of low rainfall and it will be a desert.

Northern California is looking better since last week....
152. N3EG
Quoting 115. PedleyCA:



We need to change the time back to Standard Time and then quit flip flopping it each year. This was started by the Germans in WW1 to save energy. It is said to be an economic negative and as was pointed out, it gets people hurt when the change over happens. It is a last Century Idea that needs to get tossed. Write your Congressperson and demand it.

Sorry, but I'm not waking up to 3am sun in the summertime and losing an hour of light every day after work. There will be people honking their horns early in the morning on Pennsylvania Avenue if a president abolishes DST.
Meari (NW Pac. O.) :
154. vis0
tic tic - fall back sleep like a rock - tic toc
BENEFITS of changing the clock...

1) Its guarantees the news cycle a news story.

2) It is probably the largest on-going study of public behavior...

 (and consumption of drugs as in; by accident, or due to many trying to relieve a problem via drugs due to the changing of time be it spring or fall)

.../ problems, so pharmaceutical companies want it as is. Most problems are localized as one person but this causes millions to have problems.

3) Adds to ones conversation openers probably 3rd opening line after; "what a bahhhyouuuteeful day",  "looks like its going to rain" then "why are we changing the time ... do we lose or gain?"

5) It creates a personal rags to riches feeling (ya know we USofA'rs are freaks for TV) in losing an hour in spring then GAINING AN HOUR IN FALL HORAYYYYYYY!

4)  sorry just turned clock back and was wondering how did i post 5 before 4...(had 4 more but all too controversial)

gotta catch up on the ENSO areas have not checked in 2weeks...
#154 Post the other ones on your pages and post a link here....
October as dry as a normal March...

With all rain and convection continuing to avoid us...November no better...

The dry boring season looks very promising...
Extremely dry and unusually warm here in Denver. 60s all week no rain and hardly any clouds. While 60s in November is completely normal the fact that we haven't seen any snow yet and that we are only getting 60s is very unusual. Continued warmth into next week wouldn't be too surprised if we break the latest snow on record (November 21st) as the ridge continues to produce the same weather 60s and sunny.
Quoting 152. N3EG:


Sorry, but I'm not waking up to 3am sun in the summertime and losing an hour of light every day after work. There will be people honking their horns early in the morning on Pennsylvania Avenue if a president abolishes DST.


I don't think the president can do that... Current Federal law allows the states, individually, to make that determination. To usurp that authority would be in violation of the US Constitution involving states rights, as well as, the law giving them the explicit right to make that determination...

In other words, it would take an act of congress...
Most of my clocks are set. For some reason the thermostat isn't allowing itself to be reset. Just following the instructions and nothing. The rest of the stuff is of the do it itself variety. Works for me.
The 06Z GFS Its out in la-la land but holy cow!
No way this verifies but fun to look at!
300 Hundred hours.
matthew.like?
Quoting 158. Dakster:



I don't think the president can do that... Current Federal law allows the states, individually, to make that determination. To usurp that authority would be in violation of the US Constitution involving states rights, as well as, the law giving them the explicit right to make that determination...

In other words, it would take an act of congress...


However, I think that it would be within a President's power to order Federal agencies to ignore DST. No sane President would do that, but our choices this year...who knows?

Oh, and we finally got some rain this morning for the first time since within a couple of days after Matthew.
Good confused Sunday morning

It's 85 and already feeling like 95 on the island, looking for the rain to start up again about noon. Right now there is a strange ball of light in BLUE sky, and the waters around the island have turned those beautiful Caribbean blues and turquoises, rather than the dark greys and mud colors we've been seeing these last few weeks.

Adding to my confusion, of course, is the fact that these islands don't have DST, so half the clocks changed and the others didn't. Too hard to figure out before my daily infusion of caffeine!!

Hoping all is well with you folks out there!

Lindy
Been using UTC for so long I ignore local time 365 days a year.

Now dat b some tropical dedication .


Winning!
Quoting 166. Patrap:

Been using UTC for so long I ignore local time 365 days a year.

Now dat b some tropical dedication .


Winning!



I'm still using GMT!
Quoting 115. PedleyCA:



We need to change the time back to Standard Time and then quit flip flopping it each year. This was started by the Germans in WW1 to save energy. It is said to be an economic negative and as was pointed out, it gets people hurt when the change over happens. It is a last Century Idea that needs to get tossed. Write your Congressperson and demand it.

As noted its a States rights issue and IMO more of a latitude issue as well . I'm completely 180 as far as Florida goes prefer to stay on DST year round and have it light in the evening. I just can't stand when its gets light before dark . ie: dawn 6:30 am - sunset 5:30 pm
Boy, you people complain about everything. Do you think it's easy for me to measure an hour's worth of sand and move it back and forth twice a year????

Quoting 161. PensacolaDoug:

No way this verifies but fun to look at!

yes but I HOPE the rain for Florida verifies, we surely need it around My area for sure. so dry here now.
12Z GFS has the Gulf Low coming into the tampa bay area heading NE Thursday...just FYI right now....
Lots of October precipitation records were broken on the west coast, now November is trying to show up Oct here in Acme WA. 2.5" in the last 24+ hrs, 4.2" in the first 5 days. Just need the snow level to drop a couple thousand feet, lots of snow on the high peaks, nothing down low yet.



Caribbean mischief next week?
Michael Ventrice
‏@MJVentrice
Monster CCKW (with MJO projection) to push across the Atlantic Basin next week. Should light up the tropics w/extratropical impacts.

Quoting 173. HurricaneFan:

Caribbean mischief next week?
Michael Ventrice
%u200F@MJVentrice
Monster CCKW (with MJO projection) to push across the Atlantic Basin next week. Should light up the tropics w/extratropical impacts.




with this kind of wind shear i would say no


i said a few weeks a go that hurricane season may be over with and we are now in that time of year too where high wind shear takes over and shut things down for the season and that is what we are seeing right now on the wind shear maps and it been like that for the last few weeks or so so right now hurricane season is closed
Quoting 170. LargoFl:

yes but I HOPE the rain for Florida verifies, we surely need it around My area for sure. so dry here now.


The GFS has been prediction an East Coast system for mid November for a while now (it just can't quite figure out the timing). I've been watching it because the back side of system is expected to pull down the coldest air of the season so far with lows in the upper 30s near the Gulf Coast and northern Florida.

So the setup is something to at least watch for. If it materializes, it will put an end to this Fall heat wave most of the United States has been experiencing.


Strong tornado in a northern part of Rome (Italy). According to Italian media unfortunately two fatalities in Cesano and Ladispoli.

Youtube-Video of the tornado:
Incredibile tromba d'aria a Cesano (Roma)

Another youtube video.


Source twitter:



Italian radar shows the stretch of severe weather in the mid of the country.
Quoting 174. thetwilightzone:



with this kind of wind shear i would say no




Shear can change, and with the MJO and Kelvin Wave coming, a weak storm can actually devekop in shear it just won't strngthen much. Just because there is 60 knots of shear now doesn't mean there will be 60 knots of shear in a week.
One heck of a cold front for the SE CONUS on the 12z ECMWF by 240 hours combined with an extratropical low.

Quoting 174. thetwilightzone:



with this kind of wind shear i would say no




Remember according to that map Matthew became a Cat 5 in 15-25Kts of shear so high shear doesn't mean a storm can't form
183. bwi
Back on lowest ever modeled Arctic ice volume anomaly for the month.

12z GFS dropped the cyclone the 6z GFS had. I wouldn't rule out one more storm in the central Caribbeaan with the positive MJO pulse moving in, but it is looking less and less likely with the shear and so many strong fronts projected to move into the subtropics by the GFS.


Heavy rain moving through central Texas. :)
The smog from the festival of Diwali in India still hasn't cleared a week after. The readings from the air pollution was off the charts. Severe economic restraints are being put in place to make the air less deadly this week. The use of fireworks has been studied a little and the results are not good at all for humanity or our climate yet we seen to put that right to pollute in the name of celebration over all the other ones they will be limiting this week like AG burning, coal power-plant, garbage burning, car emissions, construction, destruction and such..seems one way of reducing harsh global emissions that not only effect climate negatively but health directly would be to test, change and/or limit fireworks.

Quoting 186. Skyepony:

The smog from the festival of Diwali in India still hasn't cleared a week after. The readings from the air pollution was off the charts. Severe economic restraints are being put in place to make the air less deadly this week. The use of fireworks has been studied a little and the results are not good at all for humanity or our climate yet we seen to put that right to pollute in the name of celebration over all the other ones they will be limiting this week like AG burning, coal power-plant, garbage burning, car emissions, construction, destruction and such..seems one way of reducing harsh global emissions that not only effect climate negatively but health directly would be to test, change and/or limit fireworks.



Breathing that smog in is really bad for someone's health. Yikes makes my chest hurt thinking about it.
Quoting 164. Misanthroptimist:


However, I think that it would be within a President's power to order Federal agencies to ignore DST. No sane President would do that, but our choices this year...who knows?

Oh, and we finally got some rain this morning for the first time since within a couple of days after Matthew.


I suppose, but like you said besides confusion what would that accomplish and no sane person would do that. It's bad enough that Federal Holidays and State Holidays don't match up. So I can mail a package, but not do any business with State of Alaska businesses and vice versa at times. Alaska has "Alaska Day" and "Sewards Day" and two "Federal" Holidays - I want to say Presidents and Columbus Day are not observed at the State/local level. And obviously private companies can do whatever they want.
A Puzzle: Will You (Yes, You) Decide The Election?

Apparently there is an election or something coming up soon, so this week's Riddler Classic is a voting problem from Andrew Spann, with a hat tip to his colleague Daniel Kane:

You are the only sane voter in a state with two candidates running for Senate. There are N other people in the state, and each of them votes completely randomly! Those voters all act independently and have a 50-50 chance of voting for either candidate. What are the odds that your vote changes the outcome of the election toward your preferred candidate?

More importantly, how do these odds scale with the number of people in the state? For example, if twice as many people lived in the state, how much would your chances of swinging the election change?

Extra credit: Solve for Dakster deciding the senate election in Alaska with 501,515 registered voters, and for PedleyCA deciding the senate election in California with 19,411,771 registered voters.
Quoting 188. Dakster:



I suppose, but like you said besides confusion what would that accomplish and no sane person would do that. It's bad enough that Federal Holidays and State Holidays don't match up. So I can mail a package, but not do any business with State of Alaska businesses and vice versa at times. Alaska has "Alaska Day" and "Sewards Day" and two "Federal" Holidays - I want to say Presidents and Columbus Day are not observed at the State/local level. And obviously private companies can do whatever they want.

191. MahFL
Quoting 127. olsenovation:

That was post 117 that shows the cool water area. There has to be an explanation, or is this silence like the silence I get when I elude to other weather manipulation phenomena?


It's the developing La Nina. Search for hurricanetrack on youtube, he explains it well.
192. elioe
Quoting 189. BaltimoreBrian:

A Puzzle: Will You (Yes, You) Decide The Election?

Apparently there is an election or something coming up soon, so this week's Riddler Classic is a voting problem from Andrew Spann, with a hat tip to his colleague Daniel Kane:

You are the only sane voter in a state with two candidates running for Senate. There are N other people in the state, and each of them votes completely randomly! Those voters all act independently and have a 50-50 chance of voting for either candidate. What are the odds that your vote changes the outcome of the election toward your preferred candidate?

More importantly, how do these odds scale with the number of people in the state? For example, if twice as many people lived in the state, how much would your chances of swinging the election change?

Extra credit: Solve for Dakster deciding the senate election in Alaska with 501,515 registered voters, and for PedleyCA deciding the senate election in California with 19,411,771 registered voters.


For Dakster: 0.18%
For PedleyCA: 0.028%

Sorry for having found this riddle days before. :P
La Nina conditions over the next few months.



Uh oh!

Awww, elioe you should have let them have a chance to solve it themselves :)
still plenty of time for a blockbuster hurricane.
This is an interesting forecast map from the ECMWF. A very deep no-tilt trough and deep low on the Gulf coast, and an intensifying tropical system in the Caribbean. It is 10 days out...but it's also the Euro. We'll see!



A closeup of the Euro beast

The CMC has a similar setup. Not as closely phased though.

4,000 people are waiting in line to vote in Cincinnati right now. This is how long the line is.



At least it's not raining. But it is getting chilly.
Quoting 179. CybrTeddy:

One heck of a cold front for the SE CONUS on the 12z ECMWF by 240 hours combined with an extratropical low.




The GFS at 300 hours. The GFS has been predicting this upcoming cold weather for the past week.

200. elioe
Quoting 194. BaltimoreBrian:

Awww, elioe you should have let them have a chance to solve it themselves :)


Well, wasn't "solve for" a kind of open invitation? ;)

The following is primarily for Patrap and CRRKampen:
If you dream about moving into Northern Norway, don't move to coastal property. Even though there is some isostatic uplift, coastal properties will get inundated by climate change. And if you dream about buying property in Northern Norway, don't do it in Tromso. Do it in Narvik. Or do it in Kirkenes. Those places will benefit most about climate change, since respectively, half of Swedish and Finnish exports and imports will pass through the ports of those towns, when the Arctic Ocean gets free of ice. At least if the current plans for Finland-Norway railway connection become realized. Those places will become huge cities during this century, and property values will soar.
Or you could buy property by Tampere near a lake and call your real estate development "Tampere Palms" :)

Tampere Palms Golf and Beach Club--open to Florida refugees!
202. elioe
Quoting 201. BaltimoreBrian:

Or you could buy property by Tampere near a lake and call your real estate development "Tampere Palms" :)

Tampere Palms Golf and Beach Club--open to Florida refugees!

Lol... you may not. Even at the end of this century, palm trees will not survive the local climate. Even though grapes and soybeans will. And there are very strict laws about false advertising. :)

BTW, there is already a golf club. I guess it's not open during winter, as it's covered by half a meter of snow.

miami disco is dissing the GFS model of a stronger front passage for next weekend in favor of the ensembles and the euro models
Quoting 203. knightwarrior41:


miami disco is dissing the GFS model of a stronger front passage for next weekend in favor of the ensembles and the euro models
flip is too come 12th 13th it begins done in by 17th the cold begins
206. elioe
Has WU become somewhat famous during the early 20th century? By now, we have had Louis Pasteur, Marie Curie, the Wright brothers and Thomas Edison joining this forum. On the other hand, that would explain the amount of people in this blog, who do not accept the work of Svante Arrhenius.
the names are great choices makes my job easier
Quoting 202. elioe:


Lol... you may not. Even at the end of this century, palm trees will not survive the local climate. Even though grapes and soybeans will. And there are very strict laws about false advertising. :)

BTW, there is already a golf club. I guess it's not open during winter, as it's covered by half a meter of snow.


Just means you tee up a little higher. the loser of the hole get the balls out of the cup.

BTW - yet another big tremor/earthquake here in OK. Been a few today close by.

5.3
3km W of Cushing, Oklahoma
2016-11-07 01:44:24 (UTC)
6.1 km

That one will make them nervous - too much oil stored there (part of the Strategic Reserve for the US).

Others in the immediate region (today) - yes, felt these too:

3.1
19km ENE of Perry, Oklahoma
2016-11-06 19:43:07 (UTC)
5.0 km

3.6
6km SE of Perry, Oklahoma
2016-11-06 03:20:43 (UTC)
5.0 km
Quoting 209. daddyjames:

BTW - yet another big tremor/earthquake here in OK. Been a few today close by.

5.3
3km W of Cushing, Oklahoma
2016-11-07 01:44:24 (UTC)
6.1 km

That one will make them nervous - too much oil stored there (part of the Strategic Reserve for the US).


No wonder I can't get the USGS site to load...

5s start to get my attention, the 6s and 7s are no fun at all.
Quoting 209. daddyjames:

BTW - yet another big tremor/earthquake here in OK. Been a few today close by.

5.3
3km W of Cushing, Oklahoma
2016-11-07 01:44:24 (UTC)
6.1 km

That one will make them nervous - too much oil stored there (part of the Strategic Reserve for the US).
Oklahoma fracked to death all hollow ground whole state will fall into the empty hole under the ground
Tesla's solar roof looks pretty cool. Link
Quoting 211. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Oklahoma fracked to death all hollow ground whole state will fall into the empty hold under the ground


No, we'll drown. You get 10x water for every bit of oil you pull out of the ground. Oklahoma is really pretty played out. most of the water they re-inject back into the ground for disposal is water that is already there (without the fracking).
Quoting 211. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Oklahoma fracked to death all hollow ground whole state will fall into the empty hold under the ground


That won't be fun at all...

Quoting 212. hotroddan:

Tesla's solar roof looks pretty cool. Link


Bringing Solar roofs to the masses and in a way that it doesn't look funky. Gotta like that. Supposedly Tesla/Solar City are going to make the cost of the shingle close to the same cost of a traditional shingle. They are going after re-roofs as well as new installs. Pretty neat idea. Now let's see if we can take it from proto-type to reality.
215. elioe
Quoting 211. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Oklahoma fracked to death all hollow ground whole state will fall into the empty hole under the ground


Actually... correct if I'm wrong since I don't know the exact translation for "fracking"

The people doing "fracking" are extracting crude oil from the ground. As they do so, the ground above will sink. After fracking, those areas used for fracking could be used as reservoir to handle any extra discharge of rivers, if those fracking sites are indeed near rivers.

There are multitude of approaches to handle the negative consequences of climate change, if people wish to look.
the subsector is cracked from the frack flooded with a water base chemical additives any where from 3 to 12 different chemical components depending up the requirement to extract what you seek pressure crack yu know causing the ground to split open
you don't want that water not unless ya want 3 eyes and 4 arms
from wiki

Hydraulic fracturing (also fracking, fraccing, hydrofracturing or hydrofracking) is a well stimulation technique in which rock is fractured by a pressurized liquid. The process involves the high-pressure injection of 'fracking fluid' (primarily water, containing sand or other proppants suspended with the aid of thickening agents) into a wellbore to create cracks in the deep-rock formations through which natural gas, petroleum, and brine will flow more freely. When the hydraulic pressure is removed from the well, small grains of hydraulic fracturing proppants (either sand or aluminium oxide) hold the fractures open.[
Quoting 217. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

you don't want that water not unless ya want 3 eyes and 4 arms


Or two heads...

220. elioe
Quoting 210. Dakster:



No wonder I can't get the USGS site to load...

5s start to get my attention, the 6s and 7s are no fun at all.

Lol... I love living in Finland. Even, if I recall correctly, we live almost at the same latitude, and almost get the same climate (Anchorage vs. Tampere). Yet I haven't got any earthquakes more than 4.0 in Richter scale, nor any volcanic eruptions.
Quoting 217. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

you don't want that water not unless ya want 3 eyes and 4 arms


Don't get that hysteric. Not every chemical is poisonous.

What do you, KEEPEROFTHEGATE, think about global warming? Personally, I think we two are in almost the best places to experience this phenomenon. Canada in general will benefit from climate change, but Toronto is something special. The lakes will continue to moderate any possible heat waves, just like the lakes in Finland. Much better than e.g. Montreal, Ottawa or Quebec, I think.
Quoting 218. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

from wiki

Hydraulic fracturing (also fracking, fraccing, hydrofracturing or hydrofracking) is a well stimulation technique in which rock is fractured by a pressurized liquid. The process involves the high-pressure injection of 'fracking fluid' (primarily water, containing sand or other proppants suspended with the aid of thickening agents) into a wellbore to create cracks in the deep-rock formations through which natural gas, petroleum, and brine will flow more freely. When the hydraulic pressure is removed from the well, small grains of hydraulic fracturing proppants (either sand or aluminium oxide) hold the fractures open.[


What makes you think it is fracking? I believe there is a far more likely suspect. I will give you a few minutes to figure it out before I post the answer.
Injection well

The USGS has done studies on this.

Try some research next time.
Quoting 220. elioe:


Lol... I love living in Finland. Even, if I recall correctly, we live almost at the same latitude, and almost get the same climate (Anchorage vs. Tampere). Yet I haven't got any earthquakes more than 4.0 in Richter scale, nor any volcanic eruptions.


Don't get that hysteric. Not every chemical is poisonous.

What do you, KEEPEROFTHEGATE, think about global warming? Personally, I think we two are in almost the best places to experience this phenomenon. Canada in general will benefit from climate change, but Toronto is something special. The lakes will continue to moderate any possible heat waves, just like the lakes in Finland. Much better than e.g. Montreal, Ottawa or Quebec, I think.


Alaska just happens to be in an area where plates come together... It's part of its charm...

Pedley won - It's snowing like crazy out... Funny how this morning all the weather forecasts changed to no snow and even tomorrow the chances dropped. I would call it snowing hard, but not white out or blizzard conditions (yet). And yes, of course I have to go out in it later tonight.
Quoting 224. Dakster:



Alaska just happens to be in an area where plates come together... It's part of its charm...

Pedley won - It's snowing like crazy out... Funny how this morning all the weather forecasts changed to no snow and even tomorrow the chances dropped. I would call it snowing hard, but not white out or blizzard conditions (yet). And yes, of course I have to go out in it later tonight.
dashing though the snow
226. elioe
Quoting 224. Dakster:



Part of the charm of living here is that you don't feel the earthquakes. You hear them. It can be pretty eerie, when you hear of freight train passing by, and then you realize there are no railway tracks within dozens of kilometers.

Of course, I'm more fortunate that my mother, for example. When Finland had its strongest earthquake on record in the year 1960 (Richter 4.0), they had no knowledge about the existence of earthquakes. They simply run back to home as fast as possible, thinking that the world is going to end.
Quoting 226. elioe:



Part of the charm of living here is that you don't feel the earthquakes. You hear them. It can be pretty eerie, when you hear of freight train passing by, and then you realize there are no railway tracks within dozens of kilometers.

Of course, I'm more fortunate that my mother, for example. When Finland had its strongest earthquake on record in the year 1960 (Richter 4.0), they had no knowledge about the existence of earthquakes. They simply run back to home as fast as possible, thinking that the world is going to end.


Even in Calif you can hear them, beforehand anyway. I used to always wake up about 10 seconds before an earthquake, for no reason otherwise. Then a few seconds later would hear it coming. I prefer the UK for being in a non-active earthquake zone alone. Though maybe not so much these days, for obvious reasons.

I do wonder though, where are you hearing them from there?? A 4 being the strongest, my kind of place! LOL
228. elioe
Quoting 227. mitthbevnuruodo:



Even in Calif you can hear them, beforehand anyway. I used to always wake up about 10 seconds before an earthquake, for no reason otherwise. Then a few seconds later would hear it coming. I prefer the UK for being in a non-active earthquake zone alone. Though maybe not so much these days, for obvious reasons.

I do wonder though, where are you hearing them from there?? A 4 being the strongest, my kind of place! LOL


It is simply heard from the air. I have once "experienced" an earthquake. I was swimming in a local lake, and I heard the rumble of thunder. As my mother told me, I got out of water as quickly as I could. But when I got out of water, I looked at the sky, there were no clouds. I looked at the railway tracks of my town, there were no trains. Instantly I knew, that it was an earthquake, since my mother had provided with the necessary information to make that assessment, from her childhood. Then I went home and looked at the local broadcast, telling that there was an earthquake in Northern Finland at Richter 2.6.
We had a 2.9 here a couple of days ago and I felt it and checked USGS and there was one at exactly that time 1km from Loma Linda CA, which is NE of here and it was at a depth of 16.7km. High Today was 78.7F
KRAL- Riverside Municipal Airport
Quoting 225. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

dashing though the snow


Sliding sideways in my car... Over the embankment we go. screaming all the way.
Quoting 230. Dakster:



Sliding sideways in my car... Over the embankment we go. screaming all the way.


Ex-Pat Floridians driving on snow.... what a scary thought....
Quoting 231. PedleyCA:



Ex-Pat Floridians driving on snow.... what a scary thought....


Actually I don't do too bad, because I know to go slow and scared to go fast... And we have AWD cars/trucks with snow tires. (not studded though). Granted I am not infallable and I am by no means an expert at snow/ice driving. I did get my first experience driving in the ice fog, snow, then snow covered roads on the AlCan in a RWD Uhaul...

It's slick and snot out too. Saw one accident - slow speed and one SUV lose it and go off the highway and down an embankment on my way to get my wife.

Bringing Solar roofs to the masses and in a way that it doesn't look funky. Gotta like that. Supposedly Tesla/Solar City are going to make the cost of the shingle close to the same cost of a traditional shingle. They are going after re-roofs as well as new installs. Pretty neat idea. Now let's see if we can take it from proto-type to reality.

I'll say this: solar shingles makes a whole lot more sense than solar freakin' roadways.
Quoting 200. elioe:



Well, wasn't "solve for" a kind of open invitation? ;)

The following is primarily for Patrap and CRRKampen:
If you dream about moving into Northern Norway, don't move to coastal property. Even though there is some isostatic uplift, coastal properties will get inundated by climate change. And if you dream about buying property in Northern Norway, don't do it in Tromso. Do it in Narvik. Or do it in Kirkenes. Those places will benefit most about climate change, since respectively, half of Swedish and Finnish exports and imports will pass through the ports of those towns, when the Arctic Ocean gets free of ice. At least if the current plans for Finland-Norway railway connection become realized. Those places will become huge cities during this century, and property values will soar.

Patrap, sup? You coming with me??

Thanks, Elioe!
Quoting 222. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


good/morning...dang.time.change
I just saw a commercial with a guy wearing a Fire Fighter outfit saying we support Amendment 1 and vote Yes.
First time I've seen this commercial.
Everyone make sure you use your constitutional right to vote and "let's make America great again."

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
336 am CST Mon Nov 7 2016

Discussion...
beneficial rains for the area are finally in the forecast for the
first half of the week as a weakening Central Plains low/trough
interacts with a northern stream upper trough that will move
across the northern plains today and amplify as it swings across the
Great Lakes and into eastern U.S. Tuesday into Wednesday. Moisture
will increase and deepen significantly across the region in
advance of this system with precipitable water values forecast to
approach 1.75 inches by later today.
Weak disturbances in the
southwest flow moving through the base of the trough will act on
this increasing moisture to bring enhanced rain chances to the
forecast area beginning today and continuing into Wednesday
during which time a weak inverted surface trough will traverse the
central Gulf Coast region. Radar early this morning was indicating
a few light showers in the coastal waters and across southwestern
sections of the forecast area. The better rain chances, however, will
hold off until late today and then continue through the day
Tuesday.
In general, rainfall totals across the area through mid
week are expected to range from three quarters of an inch to
around two inches or so, with the higher totals more likely near
the southeast Louisiana coast. The models have come into better
agreement with ending the rain on Wednesday from north to south.
Drier air will filter into the area for the the last half of the
week. Surface high pressure moving into the area in the wake of
the inverted trough will be reinforced by the end of the week as a
deep upper trough moves out of Canada and swings across the
eastern conus.
A closed upper low that forms this week over
northern Mexico and western Texas region may bring a chance of
rain back into the picture late in the weekend and for the
beginning of next week as it opens up into a trough and moves
east northeast into the lower and mid Mississippi valleys. 11




🎵 🎼 🎹 🎷 🎺
Quoting 234. cRRKampen:


Patrap, sup? You coming with me??

Thanks, Elioe!


I served in Norway while in the USMC in 84'....alongside Grother.


Norway has a wonderful society.


Record snow cover in Europe!

Link
Coldest October on record for Fort St. John, British Columbia!

Link
A deep derp watch is now posted.

😝


GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP)


The GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP) is an estimate of global surface temperature change. Graphs and tables are updated around the middle of every month using current data files from NOAA GHCN v3 (meteorological stations), ERSST v4 (ocean areas), and SCAR (Antarctic stations), combined as described in our December 2010 publication (Hansen et al. 2010). These updated files incorporate reports for the previous month and also late reports and corrections for earlier months.


😎

Quoting 204. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

flip is too come 12th 13th it begins done in by 17th the cold begins


yeah the GFS  its has been consistent with the reversal for several runs now.hot cocoa here we come :) 

Quoting 186. Skyepony:

The smog from the festival of Diwali in India still hasn't cleared a week after. The readings from the air pollution was off the charts. Severe economic restraints are being put in place to make the air less deadly this week. The use of fireworks has been studied a little and the results are not good at all for humanity or our climate yet we seen to put that right to pollute in the name of celebration over all the other ones they will be limiting this week like AG burning, coal power-plant, garbage burning, car emissions, construction, destruction and such..seems one way of reducing harsh global emissions that not only effect climate negatively but health directly would be to test, change and/or limit fireworks.




NASA, Terra/MODIS satellite, Nov 7 (click to enlarge)
. Looks bad from space too, and it's all over the most populated areas in the country (not to mention Pakistan). Beijing's got some serious competition there.
From the article : The level of PM2.5 pollutants - the most harmful because they can reach deep into the lungs and breach the blood-brain barrier - have routinely reached at least 999 in parts of the city (Delhi) this week, a reading literally off the charts and more than fifteen times the safe limit of 60.
Such high readings for such a long duration, that's a major public health crisis unfolding... I hope it will serve as a wake-up call for the people and their government to act on this. Already many people are going to suffer as a consequence of this week's extreme pollution in the long-term also.
My parents brought me here to the US from a Communist Block Country when I was a young child, my Father did a stint as a CIA operator-aviator fighting for democracy and against dictatorships and tyranny in other Countries, I was able to work hard and get a good education, and my oldest daughter graduated from Yale two years ago..........America is already Great. If you work hard, educate yourself, and take advantages of the opportunities, rather than turn against your fellow man, you can do very well here if you follow the precepts of the Constitution which is the greatest declaration of human and religious rights of any modern nation-state. All Men (and Women) are created equal, freedom to worship any religion that you desire, freedom from random government intervention (without a warrant) in your life unless you actually break the law and the freedom to chose political leaders based upon general elections..........................A very powerful Nation-Statement that has been tarnished over the past 30 years by uncontrolled corporate greed and politicians on both sides who have dropped the ball on the economic best interests of the US and on issues related providing high quality education for all of our children so that they can compete in the new global economy.

And now for the weather;




A rather good article from the "Low Country".
When a City Stops Arguing About Climate Change and Starts Planning
Charleston, South Carolina, is adapting to a hotter, wetter and riskier future.


RISING TIDES AND A NEW STRATEGY
About three dozen times a year, the city of Charleston floods during king tides. The floods block streets and shut down businesses for days at a time. A half century ago, Charleston averaged about four days of nuisance flooding a year. In 1995, Charleston had 18 flood days. Last year, it jumped to 38 days, according to recent studies by William Sweet, a NOAA oceanographer. In 30 years, Charleston will likely see 180 days of nuisance flooding.

Link
251. MahFL
Quoting 241. RichardBLong:

Record snow cover in Europe!

Link


Most of that seems to be in Asia actually.
Quoting 241. RichardBLong:

Record snow cover in Europe!

Link

Asia, mainly. Known consequence of eroded Arctic sea ice.
Quoting 251. MahFL:



Most of that seems to be in Asia actually.


Yes, more accurately the snow cover over Russia into Europe is a record for this time of year. The data only goes back to 98 so bear that in mind, however snow cover has penetrated right into NE Europe and all of Scandinavia is already completely covered. Just thought that would be an interesting tidbit to share with the blog as we head into the winter season.
Quoting 241. RichardBLong:

Record snow cover in Europe!

Link


RBL -
Keep digging in that pile of manure, you'll find that pony .
It's November 7 and we haven't had a frost yet. I'm still picking tomatoes. The rabbits are getting hungry; they jumped the fence and ate the Swiss chard. The maple trees still have leaves, but they're red and orange now. I'd post a picture, but I have to go to work now. The ginkgo trees are still green. With all the rain this season, there are mushrooms popping-up all over the place, including on the bottom logs of the firewood stacks. By Friday the first frost should arrive, weeks behind schedule. Rain is in the forecast for election day.
Quoting 241. RichardBLong:

Record snow cover in Europe!

Link
True. The Arctic Ocean has been much warmer than normal, and it's been covered with much less ice than normal for October. That means a lot of available atmospheric moisture--and *that* means heavy, heavy snows.
257. MahFL
Quoting 255. ChiThom:

It's November 7 and we haven't had a frost yet.


It would help a great deal if you told us your location...
Quoting 257. MahFL:



It would help a great deal if you told us your location...


Oh yes. Chitown. Thom from Chitown = ChiThom. (Chicago)
Quoting 240. Patrap:



I served in Norway while in the USMC in 84'....alongside Grother.


Norway has a wonderful society.





Pat, you're making me homesick. I remember the beautiful lawn we had in Norway.



Actually, Finland and the Scandinavian countries are beautiful places, although they are being directly affected by climate change. The inhabitants are generous and compassionate people. Most business is still done with a handshake. Civility and manners are not considered politically correct, they are still a virtue.

As a born American who had the pleasure of living so long in their societies, I have always tried to maintain the values I learned there. Perhaps it is the reason I don't always get into heated discussions and treat fellow bloggers with the respect I believe they deserve. Although, there are times I must admit I do roll my eyes and bite my tongue quite often.

Just remember, when we begin to mistrust each other and our institutions that have served us so well, be careful with what you replace them.

While it is true we may not be able to do anything about climate change, we should at least be able to understand it and learn quickly how to adapt to a world with which we are not familiar.

I'm going to take my nap now.
Quoting 255. ChiThom:

It's November 7 and we haven't had a frost yet. I'm still picking tomatoes. The rabbits are getting hungry; they jumped the fence and ate the Swiss chard. The maple trees still have leaves, but they're red and orange now. I'd post a picture, but I have to go to work now. The ginkgo trees are still green. With all the rain this season, there are mushrooms popping-up all over the place, including on the bottom logs of the firewood stacks. By Friday the first frost should arrive, weeks behind schedule. Rain is in the forecast for election day.


I am in about this stage in DC so my departures from normal are not as extreme. My tomatoes became diseased and unthrifty from chill and short days in October. I still have a few (about ten large tennis ball sized green ones) left outside but the torrents of summer fruit are done. We are close to peak color in DC. General freeze is likely for me Sat 11/12 or Sun 11/13.
I actually have a poinsettia outside (in Maryland) that is coloring




Quoting 253. RichardBLong:



Yes, more accurately the snow cover over Russia into Europe is a record for this time of year. The data only goes back to 98 so bear that in mind, however snow cover has penetrated right into NE Europe and all of Scandinavia is already completely covered. Just thought that would be an interesting tidbit to share with the blog as we head into the winter season.



This has been a pattern in recent years esp since 2007 when the Arctic Ocean started melting out significantly in late Summer. The other less easily explained part of the pattern is that despite its volume and extent, it's melting out earlier in Spring.
Gotta give props to TWC; Instead of watching the douche-canoe election, of which both people are the most disgusting humans to ever consume oxygen, I will watch soothing nature shots, while listening to soothing sounds.

The "Record snowfall in Europe" headline comes from the Ice Age Now blog.

Let's see what the European Environment Agency says about this topic .
The EEA is an agency of the European Union

Key messages

Snow cover extent in the Northern Hemisphere has declined significantly over the past 90 years, with most of the reductions occurring since 1980. Snow cover extent in the Northern Hemisphere has decreased by 7% on average in March and April and by 53% in June over the 1967–2012 period; the observed reductions in Europe are even larger at 13% for March and April and 87% for June.
Snow mass in the Northern hemisphere has decreased by 7 % in March from 1982 to 2009; snow mass in Europe has decreased even more, but with large inter-annual variation.
Model simulations project widespread reductions in the extent and duration of snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere and in Europe over the 21st century.
Changes in snow cover affect the Earth’s surface reflectivity, water resources, the flora and fauna and their ecology, agriculture, forestry, tourism, snow sports, transport and power generation.


Link
Quoting 221. nymore:



What makes you think it is fracking? I believe there is a far more likely suspect. I will give you a few minutes to figure it out before I post the answer.

Has anyone considered that if fracking can trigger earthquakes that it should be considered a good thing by releasing the continuously building stress in the earth's crust at many minor and moderate events vs. a singular large event?
Quoting 253. RichardBLong:


Yes, more accurately the snow cover over Russia into Europe is a record for this time of year. The data only goes back to 98 so bear that in mind, however snow cover has penetrated right into NE Europe and all of Scandinavia is already completely covered. Just thought that would be an interesting tidbit to share with the blog as we head into the winter season.
Thank you for bring in up the counter-intuitive reality that snowfall can indeed increase in a warming world. This effect of AGW/CC (Anthropogenic Global Warming and resulting Climate Change) many seem odd to those who don't understand basic science, especially meteorology, but it is indeed a fact.

Even though places like Greenland can still get record amounts of snowfall at some locations and times of the year, (joyously reported in false context by denialist Tony Heller - a.k.a. Steven Goddard) the net annual melt losses of Greenlands ice sheet is still staggering. [LINK]

Unfortunately, some of the regular participants at this sophisticated, science-based weather and climate website seem to be incapable of comprehending the science and logic behind weather variation in relationship to global temperature and climate trends. Obviously, some people here are in denial - and such denial is a very powerful psychological phenomena.

On a positive note, I always appreciate the the efforts of my fellow informed commenters and bloggers here who take the time to rebut illogical and false narratives, and battle ignorance and lies with science and reason.

From the Daily Mail

Europe is set to get COLDER: Melting sea ice could weaken the Gulf Stream and cause temperatures to plummet

Researchers studied winter weather data from between 1958 and 2014
They found ice in Iceland and Greenland seas has reduced in past 30 years
As sea ice retreats, air-heat exchanges that regulate climate are affected
And this could leading to colder temperatures along the Western Europe
Scientists have not specified how much temperatures could be affected

As climate change warms enormous portions of Earth, melting sea ice may actually cause Europe to become colder, a study has claimed.

Over the past 30 years, ice levels in the Icelandic and Greenland seas - regions key to regulating Earth's climate system - have significantly reduced.

Scientists believe that in turn this loss of ice will cause the flow of warmer water from the tropics to be affected, weakening the Gulf Stream and leading to cooler temperatures in Western Europe.


Over the past 30 years, ice in the Iceland and Greenland seas has significantly reduced (1900 to 1909 shown at (a), 1930 to 1939 (b), 1960 to 1969 (c) and 2000 to 2009 (d).) By reducing the size of these regions, the warmer water that travels up from the tropics is affected, leading to colder temperatures along western Europe
The key thing about an ice age, is that the snow cover has to survive over the summers , so a decline in the NH of 53% in June, ain't pointing in the right direction if you're running a site that's named "Ice Age Now".
Quoting 266. Xulonn:


Yep. Without science, we would descend into ignorance.
Quoting 265. civEngineer:


Has anyone considered that if fracking can trigger earthquakes that it should be considered a good thing by releasing the continuously building stress in the earth's crust at many minor and moderate events vs. a singular large event?

I wonder how you would feel if an M 5 or greater quake were to occur with its epicenter within a few miles of your home?
Two things...
Solar roofs and Solar City. The point was made early in this blog's comments asking who will maintain the grid when the solar leasing companies take over more and more of a major grid provider's territory, if power company revenues drop low enough (add: to cause a problem with maintenance). Good question.

Problems for consumers in San Diego County reflect there is an emerging problem, Houston. Source: I have a friend there (who is quite liberal politically I might add). She and hubby became caught up in having to choose a solar lease provider because the grid rates are higher and rising for those who have not gone solar and do not have the capital to own their own solar system. The solar providers' sales pitches are confusing at times, my friend says, but, in her words, she has to do something. Namely, choose a solar lease provider. As retirees living in the same home for the past 40 or so years, their income will not increase to keep pace with rising electric bills. More and more consumers will find themselves in this boat, and more and more will turn to Solar City and similar companies.

Really, when the grid provider-buy-excess-power law was made back around 1980, I don't think anyone saw the potential consequence of a grid maintenance question that might come into play due to mass leasing of solar panels.

Eyebrows (including my own) and criticism raised a year or two ago when Oklahoma state government approved a surcharge for solar users who are hooked into the grid and selling excess power to their electric provider, may not have been justified. Major power providers here realized a situation like what's happening in the San Diego area could be created as more and more of their customers switched to solar energy and stayed on grid, and they asked the state to approve a rate surcharge for these customers because otherwise they (the companies) would have to raise rates on non-solar customers who could not afford to purchase solar systems, in part just to enable the companies to install and maintain expensive switching equipment necessary to enable the buy-excess and switch back and forth from solar to grid, not to mention loss of income that could affect the power company's ability to maintain the grid itself. The Oklahoma solar surcharge applies only to large companies like PSO and OGE, not to the basically user-owned rural electric co-ops.

Maybe the fed will end up bailing out large electric companies. Maybe laws like Oklahoma's will be needed to ensure grid maintenance. Maybe Solar City and others could still be successful under Oklahoma's law by passing the rate surcharge onto the lessee.

Studded snow tires
Hope you'll get some, Dakster. 4WD and AWD, awesome with studded tires, especially in a winter that lasts from November to March.
:)

ADD: Ps. Ack. Probably best to play it the way it feels best to you. Have a good winter - and all.
272. OKsky
Making denier claims about AGW while leaving out global avg temperatures is like claiming that Cubs lost the world series while never mentioning the actual score.
Quoting 267. Grothar:

From the Daily Mail

Europe is set to get COLDER: Melting sea ice could weaken the Gulf Stream and cause temperatures to plummet

Researchers studied winter weather data from between 1958 and 2014
They found ice in Iceland and Greenland seas has reduced in past 30 years
As sea ice retreats, air-heat exchanges that regulate climate are affected
And this could leading to colder temperatures along the Western Europe
Scientists have not specified how much temperatures could be affected

As climate change warms enormous portions of Earth, melting sea ice may actually cause Europe to become colder, a study has claimed.

Over the past 30 years, ice levels in the Icelandic and Greenland seas - regions key to regulating Earth's climate system - have significantly reduced.

Scientists believe that in turn this loss of ice will cause the flow of warmer water from the tropics to be affected, weakening the Gulf Stream and leading to cooler temperatures in Western Europe.


Over the past 30 years, ice in the Iceland and Greenland seas has significantly reduced (1900 to 1909 shown at (a), 1930 to 1939 (b), 1960 to 1969 (c) and 2000 to 2009 (d).) By reducing the size of these regions, the warmer water that travels up from the tropics is affected, leading to colder temperatures along western Europe

Presently western Europe is simply racing up with the temps. In all seasons.
Quoting 270. ACSeattle:


I wonder how you would feel if an M 5 or greater quake were to occur with its epicenter within a few miles of your home?

Not sure what that has to do with anything, and really kinda ignores my point that if fracking can release tectonic stress at multiple M5 and less events then there may be less occurrence is M5 and greater. The point is that the stress is there and always building and the longer it goes between earthquakes the bigger the event will be so if it can be triggered more frequently before building up to major events... shouldn't that be considered as a benefit?

By the by I live in Central California and remember the Loma Prieta quake very well and I can tell you a big one is nothing to sniff at.
To be correct, please understand this:
It is the use of injection wells to dispose of drilling water, hydro-fracture (fracking) drilling or otherwise, is what has been shown to be a cause of earthquakes in Oklahoma. Not the drilling itself.
Quoting 269. ChiThom:
Yep. Without science, we would descend into ignorance.
An aside: Graduated from Harper H.S. - south side of Chicago - in 1960. Baddest street gang at the school was the "Chi-Lads." Gang leader Ron Stetka was big, mean and ugly, but then again, I tend to get along with most people, whether I like them or not. I used to make carbon copies of my exam papers during sophomore year biology class - and pass the copy back to Ron when I got up to turn in my paper. Ron was smart enough to do a little paraphrasing and get a passing mark - and biology one of the few classes he ever got a passing grade in.

Even though I was a tall, skinny, awkward kid, I was not a wimp and always stood my ground. But I never, ever had to worry about bullying or getting my butt kicked during my high school years.
Quoting 238. luvtogolf:

Everyone make sure you use your constitutional right to vote and "let's make America great again."

Yes, please vote and let's be "STRONGER TOGETHER"
278. OKsky
Quoting 275. Barefootontherocks:

To be correct, please understand this:
It is the use of injection wells to dispose of drilling water, hydro-fracture (fracking) drilling or otherwise, is what has been shown to be a cause of earthquakes in Oklahoma. Not the drilling itself.


This is technically true...... but since waste water disposable is part of the process I think saying "fracking" for shorthand is acceptable. Im just glad the earthquakes finally put some of their profits at risk, so they finally gave up outright denying the link and are actually trying to do something.
Quoting 242. RichardBLong:

Coldest October on record for Fort St. John, British Columbia!

Link


Warmest year on record for the planet, again and soon to be again Jan 1 2017.
'Quite sobering': Record hot 2015 could become 'new normal' by 2030, study finds

Record hot years such as last year's global scorcher will become the norm before 2030 unless greenhouse gas emissions are curbed, a new study by Australian researchers has found.

The scientists, led by Sophie Lewis from the Australian National University, used different emissions projections to determine when 2015's record global surface temperatures could be considered a "new normal".


Link
Rio's Beaches Take Battering From Storm Surge
Climate Central/The Guardian, Published: November 6th, 2016
Scientists in Rio de Janeiro have warned that the city's sea defenses may not be able to cope with the effects of climate change after a record storm surge swamped beaches, dumping hundreds of tons of sand across nearby roads and buildings.
Waves of almost 13 feet last weekend left beach flags fluttering in tatters, forced the closure of deckchair-rental gazebos, and inundated coconut-and-beer kiosks with grit and sea water. ...
In the 1990s, storm surge disruptions occurred roughly once a year, but since 2010 they have hit Rio four or five times as frequently. There have already been four this year, including two of the biggest ever seen. In April, two people were killed when a 165-foot stretch of the Tim Maia bike path was washed away just months after it was built. ...
Quoting 277. pingon:


Yes, please vote and let's be "STRONGER TOGETHER"


I am using my constitutional right, and NOT voting.

How anyone can defend either of these two pond scum is beyond me. I will NOT endorse either of these "its", and will sleep better knowing I didn't just choose between two bowls of excrement.

Quoting 278. OKsky:



This is technically true...... but since waste water disposable is part of the process I think saying "fracking" for shorthand is acceptable. Im just glad the earthquakes finally put some of their profits at risk, so they finally gave up outright denying the link and are actually trying to do something.
Not necessarily. On a large shale play in TX, the drillers use(d) a method of recycling and re-using the drilling water rather than injecting it into the earth's crust. Part of the problem in OK is that some of the injection wells have been in use since the 1930s.

Add: PS. In Oklahoma, the state has forced the drillers "to do something."
284. OKsky
Quoting 283. Barefootontherocks:

Not necessarily. On a large shale play in TX, the drillers use(d) a method of recycling and re-using the drilling water rather than injecting it into the earth's crust. Part of the problem in OK is that some of the injection wells have been in use since the 1930s.


Please forgive me for demonizing benevolent oil company practices.
Quoting 274. civEngineer:


Not sure what that has to do with anything, and really kinda ignores my point that if fracking can release tectonic stress at multiple M5 and less events then there may be less occurrence is M5 and greater. The point is that the stress is there and always building and the longer it goes between earthquakes the bigger the event will be so if it can be triggered more frequently before building up to major events... shouldn't that be considered as a benefit?

By the by I live in Central California and remember the Loma Prieta quake very well and I can tell you a big one is nothing to sniff at.

Clearly, the quakes in OK are releasing stress. What is not clear is the origin of that stress. Is OK currently subject to geological forces that are stressing the bedrock, or has the stress that's being released by the recent rash of quakes been in place for tens of millions of years? If it's the former, what's the source of the stress and why OK? If it's the latter, then fracking is poking a stick at a dog that would have been quite happy to continue to sleep.
I probably should have read down the thread before posting. What I had posted here has been well covered by others. Sorry.
Quoting 200. elioe:



Well, wasn't "solve for" a kind of open invitation? ;)

The following is primarily for Patrap and CRRKampen:
If you dream about moving into Northern Norway, don't move to coastal property. Even though there is some isostatic uplift, coastal properties will get inundated by climate change. And if you dream about buying property in Northern Norway, don't do it in Tromso. Do it in Narvik. Or do it in Kirkenes. Those places will benefit most about climate change, since respectively, half of Swedish and Finnish exports and imports will pass through the ports of those towns, when the Arctic Ocean gets free of ice. At least if the current plans for Finland-Norway railway connection become realized. Those places will become huge cities during this century, and property values will soar.


My family roots are in Galve, Sweden. My Grandpa got on the boat in 1905 and came to NYC. His brothers and sisters stayed. Now a couple generations later, I'm in Florida and my kids get to see how their cousins live in a completely different environment, climate and society. We go over once a year. The best of both worlds.
Quoting 280. RobertWC:

'Quite sobering': Record hot 2015 could become 'new normal' by 2030, study finds

Record hot years such as last year's global scorcher will become the norm before 2030 unless greenhouse gas emissions are curbed, a new study by Australian researchers has found.

The scientists, led by Sophie Lewis from the Australian National University, used different emissions projections to determine when 2015's record global surface temperatures could be considered a "new normal".


Link

This is why the corals, all of them, are done for in only a generation's time.
It is the only news worth mentioning, so media will cover none of it.

We got some SF right now. Longyearbyen on Svalbard is being evacuated. 100mm of precipitation, or near half the annual sum, in 24 hours have just started. The problem is: this is RAIN. All of it, up to 400-500m above sea level. In the high Arctic, three weeks into the night. Bye, Arctic. Keep on looking away, media, govts, anyone.
Related to the blog topic...
Will be interesting to see how the WA vote goes. WA state environmental protection related to shorelines and wetlands is noteworthy. Also their protection of the sky. WA is the only state that has made standards for wood burning stoves. Stoves certified by WA ecology dept put very little smoke up the chimney.

Quoting 284. OKsky:



Please forgive me for demonizing benevolent oil company practices.
Speaking of smoke, and mirrors... Your sarcasm is wasted on me. That's right, I'm not from Texas. Oklahoma is forcing drillers here to change their injection practices. Are you sue sure you're not from Texas - Tomball for instance?

'Nuff said.
Worth reading. Very dire and unusual conditions in Siberia:
Exceptional snow falls in Yakutia lead to fears for children - and horses
By The Siberian Times reporter, 07 November 2016
Overhead high voltage cables at touching level for children, foals are slaughtered because mares too weak to feed them.
It feels like the latest manifestation of climate change in Siberia: huge falls of early snow not seen in more than a generation. In many areas the level of snow is two or three metres higher than usual.
Districts like Abyisky and Srednekolymsky have faced five months of snow in just four weeks.
Yakut horses, the most resilient on the planet, have found it impossible to forage for food under the excessive falls. Reindeer, too, are suffering in the coldest region of Russia. ...

More (including pics) see link above.
291. OKsky
Quoting 289. Barefootontherocks:

Related to the blog topic...
Will be interesting to see how the WA vote goes. WA state environmental protection related to shorelines and wetlands is noteworthy. Also their protection of the sky. WA is the only state that has made standards for wood burning stoves. Stoves certified by WA ecology dept put very little smoke up the chimney.

Speaking of smoke, and mirrors... Your sarcasm is wasted on me. That's right, I'm not from Texas. Oklahoma is forcing drillers here to change their injection practices. Are you sue sure you're not from Texas - Tomball for instance?

'Nuff said.


Smoke and Mirrors? lol, what are you going on about?
I have only been on the blog for about a year... so I am assuming the Tomball reference is something others will get? You just made me scan their wikipedia page for nothing as far as I can tell, so "touche" for that, lol.
Btw, I tried to reach out to you last Friday on the previous post. I hope I hear from you wrt that.
Quoting 274. civEngineer:


Not sure what that has to do with anything, and really kinda ignores my point that if fracking can release tectonic stress at multiple M5 and less events then there may be less occurrence is M5 and greater. The point is that the stress is there and always building and the longer it goes between earthquakes the bigger the event will be so if it can be triggered more frequently before building up to major events... shouldn't that be considered as a benefit?

By the by I live in Central California and remember the Loma Prieta quake very well and I can tell you a big one is nothing to sniff at.


Most of these faults would most likely remain stable if it weren't for wastewater injection.
Link

"How does the injection of wastewater at depth cause earthquakes?
Earth's crust is pervasively fractured at depth by faults. These faults can sustain high stresses without slipping because natural "tectonic" stress and the weight of the overlying rock pushes the opposing fault blocks together, increasing the frictional resistance to fault slip. The injected wastewater counteracts the frictional forces on faults and, in effect, "pries them apart", thereby facilitating earthquake slip."

As noted by Grothar below, and many others on here over the past year, that issue of a potential slow-down/break in the Gulf Stream flow off of  the North Atlantic off the NE US Coast as the result of the cold pool off of Greenland is probably one of the greatest, and clearly visible, AGW induced changes.  The Gulf Stream has always moderated temperatures in Northern Europe and the fact that it is getting blocked off so to speak off of Greenland, while warm water "bleed off" has caused Cod stocks to plummet off the NE US Coast (larvae die off due to warmer waters) and the rising SST's in the Gulf of Maine, is a pretty direct and observable correlation.

In terms of the current warm period as noted below by CRRKampen, these temporary warm flows are also a product of AGW and altered jet-stream periods including blocking highs.










294. vis0
i approve of the following message, as in the end its on topic and if you think that cleaning or dirtying  the planet does not affect the weather / climate
place your head in a fishbowl (large enough to hold your head and cheeks as you $keptiocs will try hold your breath) add smoke add warmth and see how long it takes you to get your head out (not including dangerous gases don't want you to pass out, we need all to become wiser)  
 
Now do not think of Earth being large enough so that you don't care what your actions lead to since they might not hurt you as much now as in a few years and much more as to future generations but think of the size of Earth versus the fishbowl as allowing humanity to make errors and observe the errors' forcings over decades long enough time so one can OBSEVE AND LEARN thereforecorrect the errors now thus we that began the problem can AT LEAST begin the trend to clean up the mess we made.
 
Do not forget to VOTE
 
People** around  this globe dodge man made obstacles as bullets, bombs and natural obstacles as floods, quakes to vote.
 
[** "People" includes the locals, USofA solders, solders of countries where the freedom to vote is available, Doctors that serve war torn or "3rd world" countries.]
 
 
Some might say their vote does not count, forgetting that all good things take time, as in baby steps.  Voting is one of the few "free voice" you have.
 
 Everyday lobbyists for corporations that only care as to money are 365/24/7 working to create loopholes that favour that business and take away the rights of "we the people"  
THINK if you just make sure you vote and vote to show representatives that if they don't do what they where "hired" to do, which is REPRESENT "WE THE PEOPLE" they are voted out.  
THINK  ONE vote can take down a 365/24/7 lobbyists WITHOUT BLOODSHED.
 
Everything costs money its the nature of the evolving human animal in needing a way to maintain laws and social stability and while seperating from the "less complex" animal method of the strongest (PHYSICALLY) wins.  In using laws and social stability the more intelligent (complex animal) can win, BUT intellegence is not wisdom and many bright people decide to use their intelligence in ways that hurt others / the majority...including themselves.  
We need not to stop companies from making money i.e.  workers getting paid, we need to slow down to the utmost possible minimum the need to make "blood money" as that mthod of making money / gaining wealth hurts all, including/specially  the worker.  Coal is SADLY a great example, since this is as to voting read up on how Coal workers fought for their company(ies) yet companies barley help workers unless laws are passed that force companies to supply a cleaner working environment/health plan.  Some companies have the gut to say why do you need health plans since the workers are healthy/ Simple an ponce of prevention is worth a pound of a cure. why do you take cough medication (or give some to your children) when you feel a cold coming on.  Why not wait till your spewing out tons of phlegm (flem). Maybe  'cause you'd rather spend 4-5 bucks now than 500 dollars on emergency room visit later (not counting loss of pay from work) Same here coal workers the more you wait the further back you fall, if a company sez they will close if they are forced to go green what they are really saying is they are going to another country to lie to those people as they did to you.  In europe  (heard to happen in China in 2 years) a company that dealt in coal was forced by its workers to change to making solar panels and switches that countries laws allowed the take over by workers and now stockholders are making more money (losing less in court battles too) workers much healthier.  Its going to happen in China as an experiment by the Government and here in the USofA were still made to argue by company propaganda and THINK China will surpass us as to green energy not casuse they care cause China understands go green as to energy equals more green in pocket.
 
Coal company could have begun retrofitting their factories to develop green energy products which would mean their workers would be healthier, communities healthier making same amount of money YET saving more in needing less doctor visits due to the dangers of mining coal.  Yet Coal Workers fight/fought for their companies and all they got in return was coal.
 
See the title of this blogbyte, an idea for an agreement to help clean up Mother Earth that began decades ago by those that care...is growing and is being addressed by International laws.
 
Some might say these laws have no teeth.
 
Any changed SPECIALLY when it has to go against "big money" takes time but one must keep taking steps forward even if baby steps forward otherwise its a step backwards.
Want to add teeth to the agreement mentioned in this blogbyte, do it with your vote.
(apology for not spell chking just had to put out a small grease fire someone else in the family set)
Quoting 292. Sfloridacat5:



Most of these faults would most likely remain stable if it weren't for wastewater injection.
Link

"How does the injection of wastewater at depth cause earthquakes?
Earth's crust is pervasively fractured at depth by faults. These faults can sustain high stresses without slipping because natural "tectonic" stress and the weight of the overlying rock pushes the opposing fault blocks together, increasing the frictional resistance to fault slip. The injected wastewater counteracts the frictional forces on faults and, in effect, "pries them apart", thereby facilitating earthquake slip."




The faults would remain stable until natural stress at a greater level overcomes the frictional forces that keep them from slipping, by adding lubrication you can allow the release with under less force. OK is no stranger to moderate earthquakes from the New Madrid fault and those will continue regardless of fracking but if you can cut a bungee after a few inches it may sting, if it snaps after being stretched farther than it can withstand gonna hurt a lot worse. I don't see why this this is a contentious statement..
A couple thoughts on the topics discussed above.

Yes, a slowing gulf stream will diminish the effects of global warming in places like the UK. My understanding is that on average, over the next 30 years, the slowing gulf stream will not make things cooler, only slow the rate of global warming induced heating in the UK relative to other areas in Europe. So it will still get warmer in the UK, just not nearly as much. They'll also likely be seeing greater temperature fluctuations and more powerful storms.

Increasing the fall/winter snow in higher latitudes is actually very bad for global warming. During fall/winter the angle of the sun is so low that the albedo cooling effect of the snow (reflecting sunlight into space) is quite minimal or non-existent. Rather the most powerful effect of the snow during fall/winter is to trap the heat in the earth, instead of letting it escape into the colder atmosphere. This extra heat in turn melts permafrost which releases more methane and CO2.

A key question, that is a very hot topic of research and debate, is what is driving the drastic changes in the Polar Vortex and jet stream. These changes are enabling our increasingly hot, moisture-laden atmosphere to create highly anomalous snowfall events - especially in Eurasia and to a lesser extent eastern US.
Greetings...Cross Polar flow will be occurring this winter, with the Eastern half of the U.S. being affected. Record cold will not be common, but rough winter weather will begin later in the month. The has been chatter in these parts about ice storms. They say when things get off to a very warm start, the chance of wintry precip goes up...Especially ice.


If you can't relate your views without de humanizing another human or groups in the process here,

Maybe try knitting for a spell.

Many gave all for us to vote.

Semper Fi'

😯
Quoting 272. OKsky:

Making denier claims about AGW while leaving out global avg temperatures is like claiming that Cubs lost the world series while never mentioning the actual score.


Fair enough. Lets take a look at two graphs (and no they are not doctored up versions taken off of some deniers website) which will give us both a macro and a micro scale perspective on the matter of global average temperature.

The first graph (the macro scale) is of the last 10,000 years. It shows us currently at a very recent uptick to about 0.45 C above the average they are using (presumably the 10000 year average). As you can see, this anomaly is something that has been well surpassed multiple times over the last 5,000 years and is far from unprecedented in that regard. You should also notice that the running trend (bold black line) shows no warming over the last 10,000 years and if anything, some minor cooling.

Graph 1: Link

The second graph (the micro scale) is of the last 10 years which, allows us to take a closer look at that very recent uptick I mentioned from graph 1. As you can see, especially if you take out the el nino years, there has been little if any warming over the last 10 years, meaning that this sharp uptick has now plateaued.

Graph 2: Link

I will close by saying this;
Please challenge yourselves to respond to the content of this post with constructive information rather than expressing your negative opinions about those who chose to present information that may not go along with your agenda or what you believe in. When you fail to do this, it makes your arguments appear less convincing.
lol GFS, trying to make a Thanksgiving hurricane. (For entertainment only)


VibrantPlanet11:46 AM EST on November 07, 2016

Either way you cut it, it is fascinating to witness how various factors are impacted by global warming "from the ground up" so to speak in terms of ocean and land lake SST's at the sub-surface, land/surface temperatures, precipitation patterns across various regions from the surface to mid-levels, and polar jet stream patterns at the highest levels that drive the air around (whether warm air from the mid-latitudes or arctic masses) and back across the surface. Like one giant 3-dimentional chess game with ever changing variables.
Quoting 299. RichardBLong:



Fair enough. Lets take a look at two graphs (and no they are not doctored up versions taken off of some deniers website) which will give us both a macro and a micro scale perspective on the matter of global average temperature.

The first graph (the macro scale) is of the last 10,000 years. It shows us currently at a very recent uptick to about 0.45 C above the average they are using (presumably the 10000 year average). As you can see, this anomaly is something that has been well surpassed multiple times over the last 5,000 years and is far from unprecedented in that regard. You should also notice that the running trend (bold black line) shows no warming over the last 10,000 years and if anything, some minor cooling.

Graph 1: Link

The second graph is of the last 10 years which, allows us to take a closer look at that very recent uptick I mentioned from graph 1. As you can see, especially if you take out the el nino years, there has been little if any warming over the last 10 years, meaning that this sharp uptick has now plateaued.

Graph 2: Link

I will close by saying this;
Please challenge yourselves to respond to the content of this post with constructive information rather than expressing your negative opinions about those who chose to present information that may not go along with your agenda or what you believe in. When you fail to do this, it makes your arguments appear less convincing.



I agree with you one hundred percent.

That being said, if all of human infrastructure is built on a stable temperature (current infrastructure based on the last one hundred years at best) and the temperature goes up or down very rapidly, thus rendering the climate untenable to support the billions that depend on it, does it really matter if was colder or warmer in the past? I'm not concerned with the last 9,900 years of temp record, I am concerned with the last 100 (really the last twenty). If the very short term upward spike continues for 30 more years (which if plotted against 10,000 years wouldn't even register), then we are probably all going to die.
Quoting 296. VibrantPlanet:

A couple thoughts on the topics discussed above.

Yes, a slowing gulf stream will diminish the effects of global warming in places like the UK. My understanding is that on average, over the next 30 years, the slowing gulf stream will not make things cooler, only slow the rate of global warming induced heating in the UK relative to other areas in Europe. So it will still get warmer in the UK, just not nearly as much. They'll also likely be seeing greater temperature fluctuations and more powerful storms.

Increasing the fall/winter snow in higher latitudes is actually very bad for global warming. During fall/winter the angle of the sun is so low that the albedo cooling effect of the snow (reflecting sunlight into space) is quite minimal or non-existent. Rather the most powerful effect of the snow during fall/winter is to trap the heat in the earth, instead of letting it escape into the colder atmosphere. This extra heat in turn melts permafrost which releases more methane and CO2.

A key question, that is a very hot topic of research and debate, is what is driving the drastic changes in the Polar Vortex and jet stream. These changes are enabling our increasingly hot, moisture-laden atmosphere to create highly anomalous snowfall events - especially in Eurasia and to a lesser extent eastern US.

Hello V.P...I have a theory on what is happening with the jet stream and the Polar Vortex. Its long, but in a abbreviated form, now that the overall global temp has increased, the interaction between the hot and cold air masses are not quite as intense as they were a few decades ago. With less cold air, the warm air wins over the winter weather patterns faster than in the past. Arctic Outbreaks will gradually lose there punch compared to 20th Century winters. This along with the current increase in warming due to permafrost melt and continued C02 emissions, changing ocean currents, and deforestation, the Earths weather should become more violent, then start to lessen..If ocean currents were to change drastically over the next hundred years, it may slow the warming or add to it. There is no way to determine how the whole situation will evolve.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 259. Grothar:



Pat, you're making me homesick. I remember the beautiful lawn we had in Norway.

Actually, Finland and the Scandinavian countries are beautiful places, although they are being directly affected by climate change. The inhabitants are generous and compassionate people. Most business is still done with a handshake. Civility and manners are not considered politically correct, they are still a virtue.

As a born American who had the pleasure of living so long in their societies, I have always tried to maintain the values I learned there. Perhaps it is the reason I don't always get into heated discussions and treat fellow bloggers with the respect I believe they deserve. Although, there are times I must admit I do roll my eyes and bite my tongue quite often.

Just remember, when we begin to mistrust each other and our institutions that have served us so well, be careful with what you replace them.

While it is true we may not be able to do anything about climate change, we should at least be able to understand it and learn quickly how to adapt to a world with which we are not familiar.

I'm going to take my nap now.


In high school, I was an exchange student, and I lived for a year with a family in Denmark. It became my 2nd home. I worry about it, too, because the highest mountain in the country is only around 550 feet. It doesn't take much sea level rise to affect large portions of the country, including some of the most populated cities. They have a lot to lose to climate change, namely, most their country.
Quoting 302. tlawson48:



I agree with you one hundred percent.

That being said, if all of human infrastructure is built on a stable temperature (current infrastructure based on the last one hundred years at best) and the temperature goes up or down very rapidly, thus rendering the climate untenable to support the billions that depend on it, does it really matter if was colder or warmer in the past? I'm not concerned with the last 9,900 years of temp record, I am concerned with the last 100 (really the last twenty). If the very short term upward spike continues for 30 more years (which if plotted against 10,000 years wouldn't even register), then we are probably all going to die.


I disagree. If you think about it, every living creature on earth today has survived these type of temperature swings in the past, otherwise they wouldn't be here because they didn't just appear on earth over the last few thousand years. They were able to adapt and overcome. This is the same thing humans will do. We wont wake up one morning and it all changed, it will happen gradually enough for us to see it coming at a pace that will allow us to make those same adaptations.
Quoting 299. RichardBLong:





Graph 1: Link

The second graph (the micro scale) is of the last 10 years which, allows us to take a closer look at that very recent uptick I mentioned from graph 1. As you can see, especially if you take out the el nino years, there has been little if any warming over the last 10 years, meaning that this sharp uptick has now plateaued.

Graph 2: Link

I will close by saying this;
Please challenge yourselves to respond to the content of this post with constructive information rather than expressing your negative opinions about those who chose to present information that may not go along with your agenda or what you believe in. When you fail to do this, it makes your arguments appear less convincing.


In your first graph, the "present" is 1950. We've warmed quite a bit since then. Even though there is an arrow pointing to the temperature in 2004, it is woefully inadequate to represent the state of play in 2016.

Your second graph is from one (non-peer-reviewed and with unknown adjustments at this point) data set that disagrees with every other major data set, including the other satellite data set. That's in addition to the fact that it is NOT a surface temperature. So, it may be ignored.
308. OKsky
Quoting 307. Misanthroptimist:


In your first graph, the "present" is 1950. We've warmed quite a bit since then. Even though there is an arrow pointing to the temperature in 2004, it is woefully inadequate to represent the state of play in 2016.

Your second graph is from one (non-peer-reviewed and with unknown adjustments at this point) data set that disagrees with every other major data set, including the other satellite data set. So, it may be ignored.


As far as I can tell, here is the source of that second link:

Dr. Spencer is on the board of directors of the George C. Marshall Institute, a right-wing conservative think tank on scientific issues and public policy. He listed as an expert for the Heartland Institute, a libertarian American public policy think tank. Dr. Spencer is also listed as an expert by the International Climate and Environmental Change Assessment Project (ICECAP), a global warming "skeptic" organization


GOP think tanks....im shocked!
Quoting 306. RichardBLong:



I disagree. If you think about it, every living creature on earth today has survived these type of temperature swings in the past, otherwise they wouldn't be here because they didn't just appear on earth over the last few thousand years. They were able to adapt and overcome. This is the same thing humans will do. We wont wake up one morning and it all changed, it will happen gradually enough for us to see it coming at a pace that will allow us to make those same adaptations.


You are implying that every coastal nation on Earth will deal with a potential three foot rise in sea level within the next 50 to 75 years with no impact on day to day life. I highly doubt that. Disregarding everything else, even a small sea level rise over a short period of time (50 years) will cause massive disruption to everyday life.

If you disagree that the world is changing that fast and that such a sea level rise will happen over many centuries, that is a totally different discussion. I believe what you will find is that the vast majority of folks well versed in Climate Change impacts feel that we are all stuck on a runaway freight train with the throttle jammed wide open.
Quoting 209. daddyjames:

BTW - yet another big tremor/earthquake here in OK. Been a few today close by.

5.3
3km W of Cushing, Oklahoma
2016-11-07 01:44:24 (UTC)
6.1 km

That one will make them nervous - too much oil stored there (part of the Strategic Reserve for the US).

Others in the immediate region (today) - yes, felt these too:

3.1
19km ENE of Perry, Oklahoma
2016-11-06 19:43:07 (UTC)
5.0 km

3.6
6km SE of Perry, Oklahoma
2016-11-06 03:20:43 (UTC)
5.0 km

A prime example of the shrt term stupidity of the oil industry.
Quoting 231. PedleyCA:



Ex-Pat Floridians driving on snow.... what a scary thought....

Hold my beer and watch this...
Quoting 306. RichardBLong:



I disagree. If you think about it, every living creature on earth today has survived these type of temperature swings in the past, otherwise they wouldn't be here because they didn't just appear on earth over the last few thousand years. They were able to adapt and overcome. This is the same thing humans will do. We wont wake up one morning and it all changed, it will happen gradually enough for us to see it coming at a pace that will allow us to make those same adaptations.

Point one historical case of a global temperature jump with an amplitude of 4° C inside a century's time. I'll show you the mass extinction event.
Quoting 265. civEngineer:


Has anyone considered that if fracking can trigger earthquakes that it should be considered a good thing by releasing the continuously building stress in the earth's crust at many minor and moderate events vs. a singular large event?

Faults don't just build up energy for years and years up until some unlimited magnitude when the energy is finally released. Although time between quakes is a factor, the physical dimensions of faults also is related to the types of quakes that occur.

There is no data currently available which suggests an increase in frequency of lower magnitude quakes at the expense of higher magnitude quakes. Evidence shows a massive increase in quake frequency, including the stronger ones (by Oklahoma standards).