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Panama disturbance weaker

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:05 PM GMT on November 12, 2005

The rains have diminished over Panama today as the area of disturbed weather in the south-central Caribbean has weakened. The intensity and areal coverage of the disurbance has decreased since yesterday, although there are still some intense thunderstorms moving ashore along the Nicaraguan coast. Wind shear has increased from 15 to 20 knots since yesterday and contributed to the weakening.

Some slow development of this disturbance is still possible over the coming week, as wind shear values are expected to fall starting Monday. The UKMET and NOGAPS models are still showing a tropical storm forming between Nicaragua and Jamaica by Thursday, but the GFS model is no longer predicting this. The earliest a tropical depression would be likely to form is Tuesday. Friday or later is a more likely bet.


Figure 1. GFS model forecast five days from now, showing a tropical disturbance with copious rainfall (bright green and yellow colors) near Nicaragua. However, the GFS is no longer showing a closed isobar of surface pressure around the rain area, indicating that this is not forecast to be a tropical storm. Click here to see the full GFS forecast for rainfall and surface pressure for the coming 14 days in the Caribbean.

The rains should ease off in Panama and Costa Rica today, which have seen some impressive rainfall amounts the past three days. Some rainfall totals for the 72 hours ending at 7 pm Friday night:

Limon, Costa Rica: 210 mm (8.29 inches)
Jaque, Panama: 166 mm (6.54 inches)
El Porvenir, Panama: 151 mm (5.94 inches)

I'll be back with an update Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank you Dr. Masters.

Good Saturday Morning to everyone. First chance to visit the site today. Sure hope we do not have any more tropical development around here. We are all "hurricaned out!"

Take care and happy yard work to us all for the next few weeks here in South Florida. The good news is that everyone should have power back as of yesterday!!! YEAH!!!
Gamma
Did anyone watch the first part of "Category 7: The End Of The World" last Sunday? The conclusion is on tonight for more bad-disaster-movie laughs. Pretty soon we'll have "Category 8: The Universe Implodes"
The poor central coast of Nicaragua, where Beta hit...they're going to get hammered with rain all day today.
Hiya from The Bahamas :)
We had two weeks of god weather and we are happy for it. The government here passed a bill regarding our Emergency Management Agency this week. Hope it helps them with their work.
I unfortunately watched the first part of "Category 7" last sunday. The only reason i watched it was to see if those clueless network tv nitwits could get a disaster movie right. I watched it with a weather-wise friend and we spent half the movie rolling on the floor in hysterics. Is it just me or are the people drawing up the scripts for these movies from MARS!

I fondly remember the last network disaster film a couple years ago. It was called superstorm or something to that nature. In that one they actually had a cat 5 hurricane developing moving south over the great lakes(giggle). It was to join with tornadoes from the mid west(chuckle) and a low moving west from the northeast(thats right i'm not joking) to form one giant storm that was to destroy chicago. They actually let on these were all by themselves normal weather systems and it was them merging that was unusual.

Oh yeah dcw i think part 2 is Sunday night.

windnwaves, sound like you have been very, very lucky with weather recently. usually, those few perfect days during the year occur during work hours.

It is beautiful in my part of Florida. Blue skies with just a few tufts of white clouds slowly drifting by. As I wrote to snowboy earlier, Weather is sort of like road construction. When you learn to work your way around the obstacles, they change again.

I don't even watch things like "Category 7." Especially if it is a made-for-TV SciFi channel movie. I still remember a Sci-Fi series that had potential until they tried to make massive changesin genetic structure due to a tick bite. In my estimation, SciFi channel ruined Andromeda, it's killing Stargate and there are other and they didn't last another year.

But, alas, I digress.

arcturus: I think the other movie you're talking about is "Category 6", which was from last year I think. ("Category 7" is the sequal to 6.) If you listened carefully, all the stuff about "category 6/7" is (now) actually F6/F7 tornadoes (which exist, since the Fujita scale mathematically goes up to 12).

It wasn't that bad, they backtracked from the wrong stuff in Category 6 and at least didn't pretend everything was a result of normal stuff colliding (though...."chunks of mesosphere" falling?).

You can't enjoy these movies without some suspension of disbelief, they're not about the weather or made for sci-fi geeks. I'm liking the subplot about the crazy old religous woman scamming people for money to "bring people to God".
As I suspected, the earlier Panama situation has resolved itself into a weak TD south of El Salvador, whose surface wind field appears here:


The Atlantic side appears too shear-ridden to do anything.
It was that bad, come on, a category 5 hurricane developing in southern canada moving south towards Chicago. Thats about as believable as a Noreaster snowfall in Puerto Rico. The problem is people watch these movies without any understanding of meteorolgy and believe that nonsense.
Invest 93L is up on the Navy site.
Hecker:

Would you share the link to the url that has those wind field charts? Thanks
Hecker it is not a TD.

The convection with it was never organized.
Glad to hear the area down SW is calming down... folks could stand a rain break...
LOL!!! These insane movie of the week things that use weather as a theme are so outlandish I don't watch them as I'd be sitting there discrediting and dissecting them from moment one and driving anyone else nuts... Problem is there are folks that DO buy into the doomsday scenario... About Sci-Fi Channel, I used to be a fan, but somehow have gotten bored, and yet I love to read the stuff. WHere did they go wrong I wonder...
Latest UK and CMC are developing the system the NHC makes mention of in thier latest advisory. 300NM East of the Windward Islands. 144 Hours shows southwest of Jamacia
Newest NHC Outlook sounding much less concerned than the last one about a possible Gamma:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PANAMA
IS PRODUCING EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS BUT ONLY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES VERY LITTLE...
BUT ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
The 7:05 for windward wave.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 58W S OF
19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. 1008 MB LOW MAY BE FORMING ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 11N ACCORDING THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES.
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE FROM 9N-19N
BETWEEN 51W-59W AND SHOULD MAKE TOMORROW QUITE WET FOR THE
LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE LATEST GFS IS SUGGESTING SOME
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR BUT WLY UPPER WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
Seeing quite a burst of convection out of Windward Wave on WV loop
On Floater 2 now, have to see if it holds.
20. dcw
System E of Windward's is now Invest 94
If convection and spin hold throughout the night I think you might see the next TD approaching the Windward Islands tomorrow.
Looking pretty impressive right now.
See a hint of spiral banding
Doesn't appear to be under any shear either.
what is invest94 dcw?
I lost count on the TD # lol, I think this would be #28
Outflow appears to be setting up on the north and east sides.

it is looking impressive, progressive (LOL that has sort of a ring to it, eh)
Navy Site has investigational areas.
invest24 means investigational area of concern
or 94 that is
Ha Ha snow. Late season Tornado up there eyy, glad to see your alright. Boy did alot of people get the midwest forcast wrong last week.
Not seeing that westerly flow himpering development they were talking about at all?
Either 27 or 28 or maybe directly into a Tropical Storm if the satelitte passes detect winds higher than 35. By the looks of it right now it may just have winds of Tropical Storm force at leasts in gusts. Gamma next?
Impressive, progressive but I just saved a bunch of money by switching to Geico. Sorry, just could not resist, lol. Back to the weather...
Yeah I dunno miacane, I have not seen to many TD's with banding features.
HAHA miacane, lol.
Pretty sure this would be 28, beta was 27 if memory serves me.
NHC sees this too:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED ABOUT 100
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRODUCING A
CONCENTRATED AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE DEVELOPING
CIRCULATION CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
APPEAR MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT... AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS... THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO
PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
ON SUNDAY.
category 5 hurricane developing in southern canada moving south towards Chicago a cat 5 hurricane hiting chicago that is so cool where did some one get this from?
Steven Spielburg I think 88888888g
give it a break 888, there is maybe a TS developing tonight east of the Windwards and we're working on getting a handle on it..
hey guys

think we may be looking at td 27 and possibly ts gamma. have to wait for the convection near the center to consolidate though but it does have good outflow and there are sprial banding features present as well
Is it really November or am I sleeping and this is all a big dream?
lol welcome to 2005
Alot of moisture behind and in front of it also
so if this dos pop up where is it going and how big will it be and will the usa get hit by it or not
I think it will track WNW like NHC has and then it is up to mother nature and her seasonal cold fronts.
it will likely be a ts and will recurve to the northeast and probably not threaten the u.s.
888 look up "Windward Islands" in your atlas - this is just to the east and heading west and developing at an impressive rate
This time of year it is really hard to say. If forcasting was hard enough during the summer, throw in a november storm. Have to do some research on how many storms have actually formed in Mid November, I am sure you can count them on one hand if at all.
there are major cold fronts coming down out of northern Canada, will be covering my area by week's end - not sure how these will play out down in the tropics and how they will affect gamma-to-be
on average there is 1 named storm that forms in the atlantic in mid november every 4 years
progressive, we had never had a November tornado in my area ever, but in this season of seasons wild things are possible/happening so who knows what will unfold with Gamma-to-be?
The NHC acknowledges a developing center so they are already thinking a storm developing and are probably being conservative and awaiting additional info from quicksat passes tonight and ship and local island wind reports throughout the night to see what they do in the morning. I would not be surprised if it maintains itself throughout the night to see TS Gamma and watches and warnings out by 5am.
As far as a track, it all depends on how quickly it develops and how far west it gets. It will track wnw until it's influenced by the next cold front, my guess is if it get's far enough west, so. fla is the most at risk of getting brushed as it curves ne through bahamas.
im about to do some calculating, i know the next strong cold front arrives in the eastern united states by wednesday, so i will be able to know how far west it is before that cold front recurves it
miacanefan, last cold front fizzled in caribbean so maybe Gamma-to-be will get a ways westward before curving north + then east - note that I agree about NHC being conservative till they get better info, though the satellite info is pretty compelling
Although we're getting cold fronts pushing down, only Wilma actually pushed real cold front down behind her when she left fla. If Gamma develops it could be interesting for so. fla because a cold front just went north of her and high pressure is expected to be over fla extending out to atlantic next several days. Look at spring like temps over US and tornadoes as another sign that cold fronts are still somewhat weak. Again we'll have to wait and see who beats who first.
Next front is supposed to dip into the northern carib, Gamma keeps the west nortwest track, it may duck under it. After that who the H&** knows.
61. dcw
I'm declaring this thing a depression tomorrow morning if this keeps up.

http://ahurricanecenter.webhop.net/

Or http://s91794711.onlinehome.us/ncw/phpBB2/index.php
Even if you look at the NW ATL WV loop you can see the front coming down, it does not look like it will make it. Looks like it is getting cut down at the knees at the Gulf.
High pressure will keep it out
ok ive looked at the strength of the cold front and the timing and come up with this:

gamma-to-be will continue wnw for the next 3-4 days and approach the southeastern bahamas by end of next week, the cold front looks like it will lose its punch over the midwest as it drops coller air behind it, and i think gamma might weaken slightly due to the easterly shear but impact the extreme eastern united states. its far too early to tell how strong it will be or where exactly it will affect the u.s., and all that is subjective to its development in the short term
Is the circulation center right under that spot of gray on the IR loop, or is it somewhere else? Because if that's the circulation center and that gray doesn't go away soon, trouble's brewing.
Hopefully it will traverse the High Pressure and get thrown into the Cuban Mountains.
miacanefan, last week's tornado in CANADA in November is a sure sign that cold fronts have been weak so far - we have yet to see a real hard frost (usually see those in October)
Your not calling a stall are you Atmos?
If it heads anywhere north of west towards the U.S., the shear will probably destroy it. Look at those beautiful 60-knot and 70-knot shears! (As long as they don't drop!)
Even if it heads west or west-southwest, there's still a lot of shear in that direction too.
blobby seems to be easing up a tad on the latest IR and WV
it wont stall

that shear is forecast to relax as the shortwave trof approaches next week
From what I understand those shears are supposed to subside early to midweek.
73. dcw
OMG! IT HAS A CDO ALREADY! What the heck kind of monster are we dealing with!?!!?
AySz88 Dr. Jeff is predicting shears to drop for next week along blobby's path is he not?
yes the shear will relax due to the interaction with the ull coming from the great lakes
ok ok DCW, what is a CDO?
77. dcw
"The earliest a tropical depression is likely to form is tuesday"

I'm thinking it might be a little sooner, look at Blobby go.
CDO = central dense overcast
dcw thats not a cdo
There are two different invests right now - one north of Panama, and one just east of the Caribbean. Dr. Masters might not even be aware of the one east of the Caribbean yet.
Density is intensifying on the last frame, no CDO though.
Can't believe she's goin on like that in the 20-30kts of shear she's under now.
Amazing skye, appears to be under no shear at all.
Goodnight all, gonna get some rest cause tomorrow we'll have plenty to talk about if Gamma keeps her intensity and developing tonight!
Later Miacane
nite cane
just checked colorado state and neither they nor skeetobite have anything out on this system. Seems to have popped up out of nowhere. It isn't a usual breeding ground, historically, outside of carib and gulf, this time of year. However, this IS 2005... so all bets are off...
88. dcw
It's going to be a CDO real soon if this keeps up though. How in the world is it strengthening like that under so much shear and not really steamy waters?
89. dcw
Indeed, gables. What a year...and it's not done yet, Gamma is in a position to threaten the U.S. one last time this year.

Found a great weather forum, head on over:

http://www.talkweather.com/forum/viewforum.php?f=57
there is excellent outflow to the north and east so it is able to get underneath the shear and blow up
Man, can I put money on this thing being a TS already. Dvorak looks pretty darn organized.
may be impressive blow-up on sat and what ship reports they have. It has to sustain over a period of 24 hours to really prove itself. The islands in its path are going to get a blow, but until it's been around a while we need to monitor it and pray it stays nothing more than a collection of nasty thunderstorms. NHC has said nothing about putting a hurricane hunter into either which makes me wonder just how serious they are...
dos any one no if they will send in a hurricane huter to or noaa to take a look at it to see what is going on out there
94. dcw
Gables, they issue hurricane hunter timetables each day, and this was only THERE six hours ago.

Looks like a 55-60 mph T.S. already, jeez thats organized!
888, from NHC site:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 121430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT SAT 12 NOV 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z NOV 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-169

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 11.5N 81.5W AT 14/2000Z.
sorry there mean to say hurricane hunter or noaa to take a look to see what is going on out there
as of tonight there is no scheduled noaa or hurricane hunter aircraft flights into the disturbance

cgables

i think they are not serious about it because it has developed so quickly tonight and never really expected it
i'm off too, g'night all
TD#28 2am. Gamma by 11am.
*recon plan of the day
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z NOV 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-169

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 11.5N 81.5W AT 14/2000Z.
nite snowboy
102. dcw
The latter one is the system in the west Caribbean, which will certainly be cancelled due to the spin-down over the past few hours.
doubt it progressive it isnt that strong yet but its well on the way to becoming td27 by tomorrow or monday
I understand that dcw, but I also understand that diurnal blow-up and die-down happens cyclically as well and that if they have to scramble an ops they will and they will mention it in their public announcement regardless of whatever timetables they normally run. This is indeed impressive, and needs to be watched, I just wouldn't bet the farm on it just yet. Give it another 12 hours to be sure it'll really hold together as an ORGANIZED system.
Those cordinates are for Panama blog not this one. Well, they know how to think on their feet. They've changed the plan before.
I thought beta was #27??
skye, beat you to it... nyah-nyah!!!
some one give me a link on some satellite on what eve you can give me
at this point I have NO idea what # TD we are up to. Never thought I would see a year I couldn't keep straight...
Well, I'll give it 12 hours, check it in the mornin & try to beat ya to sleep ~ Nite all~ Hey gables thanks for spreadin the word.
skye, thanks for giving me the word to spread!!!
nighters, skye, yeah, 12 hours to see what it does, which is what I think NHC is doing. They've already advised the islands to hang onto their hats, and now everyone watches...
this will be td 27
thx atmos
8888 have no links, I'm still on dial-up and take too long, so...
cgableshurrycanegal that ok can you tell me what it look like
117. dcw
It's 27. Kinda funny that the october summary from the NHC uses 'STD 22' :P
Well, ho, I go have myself a nice evening and come home and what has cooked up in six hours? Well that was fast. Lordy looks like we have something to watch until (if) SW Carib gets going later next week.
thank you atmosweather
LOL dcw

youre welcome 888
121. dcw
I always have to giggle a bit at the NHC's discussion at 11PM the night of mega-Wilma. 'The initial intensity is set at 95 kts. This may be conservative'. Gee..you think?
any one on DSL it is so slow how come?
lol dcw

and their great dennis discussion sentence

"AFTER DEEPENING AT A RATE THAT BORDERED ON INSANE DURING THE AFTERNOON...DENNIS HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AT A MORE NORMAL RATE THIS EVENING."
found this also on NHC in latest tropical discussion:
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT NOV 12 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 58W S OF
19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. 1008 MB LOW MAY BE FORMING ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 11N ACCORDING THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES.
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE FROM 9N-19N
BETWEEN 51W-59W AND SHOULD MAKE TOMORROW QUITE WET FOR THE
LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE LATEST GFS IS SUGGESTING SOME
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR BUT WLY UPPER WINDS SHOULD
PREVENT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
An area of low pressure along a tropical wave is centered about 100
miles east-southeast of Barbados. This system has been producing a
concentrated area of thunderstorm activity near the developing
circulation center during the past few hours. Upper-level winds
appear marginally conducive for additional development... and it is
possible that this system could become a tropical depression during
the next day or two as it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
next discussion out soon and this one will include the intense blow up of convection near the center earlier
im gonna get some sleep, nite guys
128. dcw
Nothing really new in discussion. Goin to bed now.
atmos...and how many times this season was that rate surpassed, to peak with record-setting Wilma.

There have been a lot of colorful moments in the discussions this year (most recently, how the models "brilliantly" predicted Beta...not).
Well darned if there isn't sleet crackling against my windowpane. We're fixing to get a big drop in temp between now and Sunday morning, and a little taste of winter I think.
Hey now is this funny...I just went and checked, and pressure right now in my suburb south of the Twin Cities is 990mb, no kidding. I went and checked to the NE after looking at the radar, and a NE suburb, and nearby loc in WI, both have a pressure reading of 987mb.
Wow, the "danger area" is so rediculously tiny...
DR.M as a new blog up
Thanks to our Hurricane expert Bloggers we knew what was going on.......................many thanks to both of you!