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Paloma nears hurricane strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:01 PM GMT on November 06, 2008

Tropical Storm Paloma continues to steadily strengthen, and is well on its way to becoming a hurricane. The latest 2:20 pm EST center fix from the Hurricane Hunters found that the pressure had fallen to 994 mb, and the surface winds had increased to 60 mph. The crew reported that Paloma has built a 20-mile diameter eyewall that is 3/4 complete, with only a gap on the southwest side. Bouy 42057 reported sustained winds of 60 mph, gusting to 74 mph, at 6:50 pm EST. Visible satellite images show that Paloma continues to grow more organized, with low level spiral bands wrapping around the center and upper level outflow expanding on all sides.


Figure 1. Microwave image of Paloma at 7:15 am EST Thursday November 6, 2008. A partial eyewall is evident on the southeast side of the center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

The intensity forecast
Wind shear remains a very low 0-5 knots, and is expected to remain very low through Friday night. Wind shear will increase to 10-15 knots Friday night and Saturday, as the storm heads north, but I don't expect Paloma will stop intensifying until it crosses 20° North Latitude (between the Cayman Islands and Cuba) Saturday night, when the shear will increase to 30-50 knots. Water temperatures are warm, 29°C, and this warm water extends to great depth. These are very favorable conditions for intensification, and Paloma should be a hurricane by tonight or Friday morning. The latest (12Z, 7am EST) run of the HWRF model predicts Paloma will pass though the Cayman Islands on Saturday morning as a Category 2 hurricane. The GFDL model predicts a Category 3 hurricane, and the latest 18Z SHIPS model puts Paloma as a strong Category 1 hurricane with 95 mph winds in the Caymans. I believe Paloma will be a Category 3 hurricane by Saturday when it passes through the the Cayman Islands. Paloma will likely be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane at landfall in Cuba, and a strong tropical storm with 60-70 mph winds in the Bahamas.

The track forecast
A strong trough of low pressure approaching the U.S. East Coast is pulling Paloma to the north, and this trough should continue to pull the storm northwards and then turn it northeastward by Saturday. Several major models--the NOGAPS, UKMET, and ECMWF--continue to predict that Paloma will be torn in two by the wind shear just south of Cuba, with the low level remnants getting forced westward towards the Yucatan Peninsula. This solution seems unlikely, given the fact that Paloma is likely to grow much stronger and more resistant to wind shear than these models are predicting. I expect Paloma will follow the track of the GFDL, HWRF, and GFS models, which show the storm may pass very close to Grand Cayman Island on Saturday, then make landfall in southern Cuba on Sunday and continue on through the central Bahamas. On this track, Grand Cayman may receive a direct hit, but Little Cayman and Cayman Brac would only see top sustained winds of 50 mph. A slight deviation to the right, though, would put Little Cayman and Cayman Brac in the bulls-eye. Jamaica should see winds of just 20-30 mph from Paloma.

Links to follow
Buoy 42057
Grand Cayman airport weather
Grand Cayman weather
Wundermap for the Cayman Islands
Wundermap for 18N 83W

Historical note
This year and 2005 are the only seasons that we've had major hurricanes in the Atlantic in four separate months--July, August, September, and October. If Paloma becomes a major hurricane, it will make 2008 the first year since record keeping began in 1851 to feature major hurricanes in five separate months.

I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Surf Mom - TY for thoughts - have a gr8 weekend
...PALOMA CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT HEADS SLOWLY
TOWARD THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

INTERESTS IN CUBA AND JAMAICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
PALOMA.
Quoting surfmom:
Had fun here tonight -- even while feeling some angst in regards to Paloma -- another early morning for me tomorrow -- Cayman and sister islanders - candle lit, prayer in mind -- be smart, be safe, take care.....I will be thinking about you ALL


Thanks for that. I will post from home as long as the power is on.
Good evening folks
still 65 knots at 0300 AM UTC advisory
Ok - lets see - Kman, you belong on the bottom, not the top, and Kmanhurricane, just tell me what part of the island that you are on.

Getting better organized per new advisory, now Forecast to become the dreaded Category 3 status.
508. eddye
SOUTH FLA WILL GET HEAVY RAIN FROM PALOMA
When I staretd posting here a few years ago there were only a couple of us from these islands. Now there are many more which is a wonderful thing. Welcome to all who are new here.
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.0N 80.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

---
yikes 100 knots by saturday
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prospect marina dr
Night shift is here. Someone looking for a salty dog? Feb 2nd 1947, Groundhogs Day!
Since you are in the mood to remap, I would be just above Kmanislander on the map. I live just off Walker's Road, which is inland. Thanks.
Quoting eddye:
SOUTH FLA WILL GET HEAVY RAIN FROM PALOMA


with heavy eddyecasting predicted
Can you give me directions - google earth isn't picking up street names - areas are better.

thanks
518. P451
Paloma located at 17.2 north...longitude 81.8 west.

Buoy 42057 located at 16.834 N 81.501 W

Paloma is a small hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward only 15 miles from the center. If it stays like that it would be great. The window for rapid intensification is closing before it reaches us so there is hope that the damage will not be too severe.

Speed has slowed again to 8 mph
I guess we all know the models will change. Remember, bigger storms have a tendency not to turn as predicted.
Hey all, new to the posts and far from an expert but does it seem like the models are falling out of agreement?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Getting better organized per new advisory, now Forecast to become the dreaded Category 3 status.


Yes... got this weird tumor on the NW side of the storm that's been bothering me since it formed. And CybrTeddy, you really ought to go to bed.

Buenas noches.
eddye...

the NHC already issued their school cancellation forcast for south florida for the next week.....

No Tropical Cyclone activity will close schools in South Florida for the next 14 days.

Forcaster Sullivan
first...


1000 PM EST THU NOV 06 2008

...PALOMA CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT HEADS SLOWLY
TOWARD THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...



AT 1000 PM EST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES...
240 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 270 MILES...435
KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY
ON FRIDAY...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FORECAST TO
OCCUR LATE FRIDAY AND ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PALOMA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AND PALOMA IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY REACH
CATEGORY 3 INTENSITY BY SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM. NOAA BUOY 42057 REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 85 MPH...
137 KM/HR...WHEN THE CENTER PASSED JUST TO THE WEST.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

KEH! 'twas a beautiful day in the Lowcountry weren't it?
Click to enlarge








Eddye, I bet you'd be the happiest man in the world if Paloma miss the trough and hit FL.
am iseeing right is it the eye(pinhole)appearing at 82.1 17.2
511. Orcasystems - Thanks Orca

Large Overall Coverage-
I am always amazed at the cloud cover of these storms. It is no wonder that they are so awe inspiring.

Islanders: Will be watching this with you. Hoping for the best.
S Fla may get some heavy rain depends on where it is.
531. 7544
it looks like the cone shifted alittle to the north again at 10 did it
cone has shifted further south of florida
well Paloma is now west of the models... go figure...
Quoting presslord:
KEH! 'twas a beautiful day in the Lowcountry weren't it?


Indeed it was! How goes it Press?
Orca - just sent you new file with the corrections.

Quoting KEHCharleston:
511. Orcasystems - Thanks Orca

Large Overall Coverage-
I am always amazed at the cloud cover of these storms. It is no wonder that they are so awe inspiring.

Islanders: Will be watching this with you. Hoping for the best.


Thank you.. thought I would post it so people know what your talking about




Click to enlarge
Quoting zoomiami:
Orca - just sent you new file with the corrections.



OK :)
we're getting geared up to help with the aftermath of Paloma..

www.portlight.org
What does the "M" stand for in NHC's Forecast track?

look at the black line
Everyone stay safe - off for the night
Quoting futuremet:
What does the "M" stand for in NHC's Forecast track?

look at the black line


It tells you in the corner of the map. MAJOR.
Quoting zoomiami:
Everyone stay safe - off for the night

Thanks Zoo & thanks for the map add-on. Have a good night.
Quoting futuremet:
What does the "M" stand for in NHC's Forecast track?

look at the black line


Major Hurricane; see the legend;

M Sustained wind > 110 mph
H Sustained wind > 73 mph
S Sustained wind 39-73 mph
Quoting presslord:
we're getting geared up to help with the aftermath of Paloma..

www.portlight.org

It's great to be able to be able to plan ahead of a storm, isn't it! Great job that portlight.org does.
Well I have a couple of long days and nights ahead so will turn in for now. I will be back posting tomorrow as soon as I move my cars to high ground and finish sealing up the home etc.

After that it will be hunker down time.

Good night all
546. 7544
seems to me the modeles wiggle paloma from west to east then back to the west again just below cuba nd some take it thru the yucatan cvhannel are they out of agreement now . and isnt paloma about 100 miles further north then when the models runs came out hmmmmm are things changing
g'nite kman ... stay safe
Good rest Kman

thanks
Quoting kmanislander:
Well I have a couple of long days and nights ahead so will turn in for now. I will be back posting tomorrow as soon as I move my cars to high ground and finish sealing up the home etc.

After that it will be hunker down time.

Good night all
later kman be safe my friend
551. 7544
ts force winds keep getting higher for south fla ?

Link
552. JLPR
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
even more unusual..than jlpr's post..is that Cuba hasn't even issued a Hurricane Watch yet..


lol I have been disconnected from weather lol xD

I guess I should have refreshed the NHC page =)
also wow this blog revived with Paloma

edit*
wow I need some sleep i didnt notice the 7pm advisory =P
look on page six for details about this post lol
Island of the Kman's



Click to Enlarge
554. 7544
just saw the models run last time i seen them was this am my have they change Link
zoo sorry for the delay computer slowing down here are my cordinates
19 17 01.48n 81 19 50.20
ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PALOMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
700 PM EST THU NOV 06 2008

She was a hurricane at 7est.
Paloma lookin' better organized...
558. JLPR
Quoting HurricaneKing:
ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PALOMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
700 PM EST THU NOV 06 2008

She was a hurricane at 7est.


yep I already saw it xD i modified the comment
Quoting JLPR:


lol I have been disconnected from weather lol xD

I guess I should have refreshed the NHC page =)
also wow this blog revived with Paloma

edit*
wait a minute I posted that a while ago and the 10pm advisory wasn't out yet =\ Paloma was classified as a hurricane at 10pm/ 11pm here xD

so I was right when I said almost a cane xD
look on page six for details about this post lol
jlpr at 648pm est 017L/H/P/C1 formed
Quoting 7544:
just saw the models run last time i seen them was this am my have they change Link


Yeah... NOGAPS is fixated on the W FL coast, and has been at it for the last couple runs.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
jlpr at 648pm est 017L/H/P/C1 formed


Your obviously to close to Quebec, speak English :)
562. 7544
Quoting WxLogic:


Yeah... NOGAPS is fixated on the W FL coast, and has been at it for the last couple runs.


yeap they seem to set paloma somewhere around the fla pin. look at the i think the ukmet it has it going ne then stops at 25n and turns it back to to the west pointing at se fla krazyyyyyyyy
as of 1012 est sat image appears to be rebuilting a new eye wall starting in the northern coc wrapping around nicly then the eye will clear out shorly maybe within the next 30 to 45 mins as we approach the midnight hr and on the way to dmax
Good night folks
Is the change in the models due to the incressed motion of paloma. or from the strength of her?
speak english
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
speak english


Well done Grasshopper
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
eddye...

the NHC already issued their school cancellation forcast for south florida for the next week.....

No Tropical Cyclone activity will close schools in South Florida for the next 14 days.

Forcaster Sullivan


with what you guys are saying i doubt that.
Quoting jcflys1217:
Is the change in the models due to the incressed motion of paloma. or from the strength of her?
models are meant as guidance only and do not depict the actual outcome
i just took my dog for a walk...and now some new model runs are bringing this up the west coast of florida?
zoomiami-you should place me right under the c in Cayman on the map. That is about where East End is. On the SE side.
are ya ok orca or do you have a personal problem
I know that but any idea as to why they are shifting?
g night guys got to get up early in the am to finalise some stuff around the house , see you all in the am .
no child left behind..

568. caneswatch 10:26 PM EST on November 06, 2008
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
eddye...

the NHC already issued their school cancellation forcast for south florida for the next week.....

No Tropical Cyclone activity will close schools in South Florida for the next 14 days.

Forcaster Sullivan


with what you guys are saying i doubt that.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
are ya ok orca or do you have a personal problem


Oh the problems I have.. where to start... ummm Married with Children and Grandkids.. that alone should be enough to have me committed.
kmanhurricaneman-wish it was the house I had to finalise things. work for govt and have to be there at 7 am to finish packing up things.
578. 7544
so the p;lane goes in at 12 am rigt at dmax this should be interesting
Based upon the latest computer model runs, it seems like South Florida may need to start watching Hurricane Paloma much closer as there appears to be divided thinking in the models. To be honest, I haven't done enough analysis to explain why the sudden changes in the models. But, I would bet that the next updated forecast track will have South Florida well within it. The NHC usually uses the TVCN, as that is the average of all the computer models.

someone please provide a link that most of the reliable models are shifting.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
someone please provide a link that most of the reliable models are shifting.


link
cchs..those runs show no track towards fla. Now I am confused....
583. 7544
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
someone please provide a link that most of the reliable models are shifting.


try this

Link

thanks chhs i agree with you notice the ts winds keep going up in maimi and now all the way to broward . this may be trend to shift the cone further north soon am i correct ?
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
kmanhurricaneman-wish it was the house I had to finalise things. work for govt and have to be there at 7 am to finish packing up things.
i feel for you bro dont tell me your with pwd
cmc..no
as per 1026 est 315 utc unenhanced IR4 image eye wall replacement complete with eye beginning to clear out maybe within next 15 to 20 minutes
sfwmd shows one
cmc
mm5fsu-merge
ngp
ukm

All have Paloma sticking around Caribbean and trying to drown Kman.
gdfl..no
590. 7544
does anyone have accuweathers cone just for the fun of it tia
hwrf..no
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
no child left behind..

568. caneswatch 10:26 PM EST on November 06, 2008
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
eddye...

the NHC already issued their school cancellation forcast for south florida for the next week.....

No Tropical Cyclone activity will close schools in South Florida for the next 14 days.

Forcaster Sullivan


with what you guys are saying i doubt that.


yeah. the superintendent for the school district here is like that. he didn't care if we were so close to the middle track of charley in 2004 and he didn't care if the roads were flooded by fay this year. he's a real dumb*** when in comes to us and hurricanes. when wilma hit directly in 2005, it made him wake up and smell the coffee.
mm5fsu...no
accuweather cone
Link
sorry cane..no weather related school closings for at least 14 days...it's official...:>
There is not one reputable model or experienced or respected met that is calling for this storm to come anywhere's close to Fl............what is serious though is the affects of Poloma on the C'man's and the countries of Cba Jamaica, and Hispanola........this will likely be a Cat 4 maybe 5 when it reaches these places, Godspeed!.......thoughts and prayers are with you all.
597. JLPR
I see the eye is almost back

agree noreaster....cchs..why would you lay out such an unlikely scenario, when you have no model or NHC support?
599. 7544
Quoting jcflys1217:
accuweather cone
Link


ahhh thanks they agree with the nhc this time
Quoting noreaster09:
There is not one reputable model or experienced or respected met that is calling for this storm to come anywhere's close to Fl............what is serious though is the affects of Poloma on the C'man's and the countries of Cba Jamaica, and Hispanola........this will likely be a Cat 4 maybe 5 when it reaches these places, Godspeed!.......thoughts and prayers are with you all.


Your basing that intensity on??

There is not one reputable model or experienced or respected met that is calling for this storm to come anywhere's near that Intensity
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agree with noreaster on the track..not intensity..
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
agree noreaster....cchs..why would you lay out such an unlikely scenario, when you have no model or NHC support?


If you take a look back at my post, you will see why. Take a look at the TVCN model in the Spaghetti Model Plot. The TVCN takes into consideration ALL computer models and averages them out to help the NHC create a projected track. In the graphic, the TVCN is the light blue. Now, compare the latest TVCN model to the current official forecast. It shows quite a significant leftward shift. Thats why I made such a statement. But I did not forecast South Florida to get hit and I didn't say that any computer models showed a direct hit. All I stated is that South Florida may need to watch this closer since the computer models have shown a pretty significant westward shift throughout the day; just in case this trend continues.
604. eddye
GEOFREEYWPB BE QUIET PLEASE BECAUSE SOUTH FLA WILL GET TS WINDS
Quoting eddye:
GEOFREEYWPB BE QUIET PLEASE BECAUSE SOUTH FLA WILL GET TS WINDS


Poof.. your wind has arrived
Some light food and then sleep beckons - much to do at first light.

Later
Quoting eddye:
GEOFREEYWPB BE QUIET PLEASE BECAUSE SOUTH FLA WILL GET TS WINDS
are you getting that from the american standard model or the crane model
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

"QUINTA" has intensified into a storm as it continues to move towards the South China sea.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #6
================================
At 11:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Quinta located at 13.3N 118.2E 250 kms northwest of Coron, Palawan has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 km/h (35kts) with gusts up to 80 km/h (45kts).

Additional Information
======================

Public Storm Signal elsewhere is now lowered.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 p.m. today.

Meanwhile, a shallow low pressure area was estimated at 440 kms East of Mindanao (8.0N 130.5E).
hey thats not nice to eddye
Quoting Orcasystems:


Your basing that intensity on??

There is not one reputable model or experienced or respected met that is calling for this storm to come anywhere's near that Intensity
wrong....Joe Bastardi is.
thank you orca..i am not the smartest guy here but eddey's parents need to put him to bed...and thank you cchs for your explanation, even though i find it difficult to see paloma taking a path that you suggest may happen..btw, sorry for the loss of your friend..
haha just jokin with u
Quoting SSideBrac:
Some light food and then sleep beckons - much to do at first light.

Later
could this be history repeating itself 1932 cat 4 grand cayman nov8 cayman brac nov9 very simular track, sorry cant sleep had to check back.
614. 7544
40 min for recon to go right whos up for it
Quoting noreaster09:
wrong....Joe Bastardi is.


"
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
thank you orca..i am not the smartest guy here but eddey's parents need to put him to bed...and thank you cchs for your explanation, even though i find it difficult to see paloma taking a path that you suggest may happen..btw, sorry for the lost of your friend..


Even though I agree that it seems unlikely that there would be a major impact on South Florida, we should never let our guards down, especially with a storm in its location. You should know me well enough here to know that before I make statements here, I like to have data that can support those statements.

Thanks for the condolences. He was laid to rest yesterday morning.

Just wanted to let everyone know that I may need to take some more time off from forecasting since I have learned today that I'm still quite an emotional wreck from events that have been happening.
My god you people need to get a life if you are sniping at each other like little children over computer models.
618. eddye
CCHS WEATHERMAN DO YOU KNOW DAVID FROM COOPER
Quoting 7544:
40 min for recon to go right whos up for it


Good night everyone. By the way, I have bookmarked your website Orca and will check it out tomorrow.
i know doug...it is silly...how computer models could mean life and death for some people...how models could make people prepare and some not...very silly
i don't intend to be an ass chhs...just being real...you are a very smart guy and I know you will go far in whatever field you desire...
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
i don't intend to be an ass chhs...just being real...you are a very smart guy and I know you will go far in whatever field you desire...


-
624. XL
Hi Kman hurricane

Seems 2 of us can't sleep. I have never gone through a hurricane (unless you count Gustav) and am very nervous about this one. I hope you and yours stay safe

Joanne
huh?
cchs:Try and use weather as therapy,for instance,take a long walk in a park where there are not alot of people,just you and mother nature or go to a secluded beach and just clear your mind,you have the same passion as alot of us here on the board and you should not be suprised how much just being out alone in mother nature can help....we all wish you the best!!
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning #2
12:00 PM JST November 7 2008
==============================================

SUBJECT: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 12.6N 118.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west-northwest at 11 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 14.2N 115.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
Paloma's CDO convection is really taking off now just as the recon plane approaches. The sinking motion at the center is still not strong enough for a distinct eye to pop out for good, but that could happen by morning.
629. 786
Hello, see some people from Cayman here. Good luck to us all. The general mood here is ranging from people partying, dressed up as pirates for pirates week to people waiting in line at gas stations. Some gas stations I went to were already out of gas! The below is from another forum, it is an excellent explanation of Paloma:

"There is essentially no difference between 95 kt/110 mph and a major hurricane. Category 2 intensity is still very intense...

I strongly believe Paloma will attain major hurricane intensity. Satellite data (and AMSUB/microwave imagery) has been revealing the presence of a relatively small inner core. Upper level analysis reveals a textbook dual outflow pattern, with a southwesterly upper level jet on the NW quadrant and northwesterly wind vectors on the eastern flank of an established 250-300 mb UL anticyclone. Divergence is excellent to outstanding at all levels, as is low level convergence. Westerly wind vectors southwest of a deep upper low over the central North Atlantic (and the cutoff low/coastal storm near the Carolinas) is also aiding the well defined poleward outflow channel. The synoptic pattern and Paloma's position on the southwestern flank of the UL anticyclone is a classical situation for rapid intensification to major hurricane intensity, especially with the small inner core and developing CDO. The 12Z 500 mb analysis reveals that height contours are higher than progged by the 06Z operational GFS over the Southeast, in accordance with the deeper, more amplified upper level trough over the Plains. This factor and the TC's earlier turn will likely negate the effects of shear from the approaching trough and the associated jet maximum. Overall, this scenario is slightly reminescent of Omar, since the TC's angle of approach (in relation to the heading of the strengthening upper level wind vectors) will likely mitigate the upper level shear.

The only negative factor inhibiting greater intensification of Paloma is the convection northeast of the inner core, which has been hindering greater low level inflow. The convection has been induced by the strong ascent in the vicinity, which is producing a lifting mechanism. However, very recent GOES satellite imagery reveals that new adjacent convection is developing closer to the center, as the inner core approaches the region of greatest forced ascent. Additionally, the convection appears to be "merging" with the developing CDO. It is probable that this will finally aid low level inflow to the inner core, especially as the convection farther northeast diminishes overnight. The spectre of rapid intensification is also raised by the steepening lapse rates overnight and cool mid level temperatures, which are typically cooler later in the season, aiding the formation of deeper convection.

I have always believed the initial intensity forecasts for the Cuban landfall of Paloma were underestimated, based on the preceding data and the fact that the acceleration in speed will reduce shear on the back side (a la Charley, Wilma, etc.). It is also noted that Michelle 2001 (if I recall correctly) was originally forecasted to weaken to a marginal major hurricane (~100-105 kt?) prior to Cuban landfall, based on some early model guidance/intensity forecasts, which misjudged some aspects of the upper level pattern.

Interestingly, the higher heights to the northwest and the system's earlier turn raises the possibility of a brief reduction in forward speed near the Cayman Islands as the trough approaches, followed by another acceleration toward Cuba. I feel that the Caymans could experience the strongest hit since Ivan 2004, and the TC will likely (in my view) be ~100 kt as it traverses the vicinity of the islands. It's quite possible that this estimate could be conservative as well. I believe the Cuban landfall intensity may be Category 2 intensity, followed by rapid weakening and a very quick transition to an extratropical (baroclinic) system over the southern Bahamas/TCI as it interacts with the strong westerlies."
rookie ?....how far south does a cold front have to come down Florida to swing Paloma to the northeast?
Click to enlarge








Well, looks like we might have some rain and wind in South FL early in the week. I will be watching for a northern shift in the models, we may yet get a surprise. If we learned anything it should be to expect the unexpected.
633. 7544
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
rookie ?....how far south does a cold front have to come down Florida to swing Paloma to the northeast?


good ? shes still moving north
I don't think there is any question that NHC is S of consensus based on below graphic.

Very curious to me because, especially with such a tight consensus, NHC should be in the middle of that, no?

Any thoughts as to why?



Link
no indications at all ryan for a major so. fla. influence from Palamo...:>>>
do any one knows how strong the trough suppose to be that suppose to turn paloma and how soon?
633. 7544 11:41 PM EST on November 06, 2008
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
rookie ?....how far south does a cold front have to come down Florida to swing Paloma to the northeast?


gdod ? shes still moving north

is "glod" a weather term? never heard of that..but I am a rookie.


Track
786: I can't read anything that long on a blog. I'd suggest next time you just pull out the best parts and maybe post those one at a time.
if paloma gets much stronger does the trough influence it more or less some of the models stalls it out after the shear weakens it if this is true could it restrenghten then head more north?
640. 786
638: lol I wish I could I just don't understand it all enough to put it accurately in my own words without messing it up
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Someone please report eddye to the admins, I knew he was going to snap, better late in the season than in the thick of 2009's season (which will likely be as active as this year, perhaps even more active)
Quoting perfectstorm80:
if paloma gets much stronger does the trough influence it more or less some of the models stalls it out after the shear weakens it if this is true could it restrenghten then head more north?


More
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Impressive CDO feature, my guess for the 1 AM will likely be
80-85 MPH
Mid 980's.
Chicklit (638) ~

Does the "M" stand for Monster?
Quoting listenerVT:
Chicklit (638) ~

Does the "M" stand for Monster?


The "M" stands for Mayhem.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Impressive CDO feature, my guess for the 1 AM will likely be
80-85 MPH
Mid 980's.


We'll see what recon finds....Should find the Max winds in about 5-10 minutes.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


The "M" stands for Mayhem.


Yeah, that'll do.

All the best to all of you in harm's way. ♥
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Time:
05:13:00Z
Coordinates:
17.4N 81.8167W
Acft. Static Air Press:
842.9 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:
1,383 meters (~ 4,537 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press:
986.6 mb (~ 29.13 inHg)
D-value:

-
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):
From 127° at 3 knots (From the SE at ~ 3.4 mph)
Air Temp:
21.1°C (~ 70.0°F)
Dew Pt:
14.0°C (~ 57.2°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:
5 knots (~ 5.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:
10 knots (~ 11.5 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate:
4 mm/hr (~ 0.16 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data


-
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):
From 229 at 72 knots (From the SW at ~ 82.8 mph)
Air Temp:
17.6C (~ 63.7F)
Dew Pt:
14.0C (~ 57.2F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:
75 knots (~ 86.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:
61 knots (~ 70.1 mph)

SFMR Rain Rate:
13 mm/hr (~ 0.51 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

No impressive winds on this vortex pass...Good to see that Paloma has stopped intensifying for now.
33 hours to landfall- Hurricane Paloma

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/tracker/dynamic/main.html

Tikki torches anybody? Dinner on the BBQ... Island hurricane-time. Pirate's Week has been re-scheduled! Arrrgh :)

T.S force winds arrive in Cayman Islands in 14 hours 30 minutes. (source)
Ok guys, shift is over for me, you have the wheel, will check back in later this morning.
Constant rain now and the winds are starting to pick up. Just hope this hurricane decides to chill for the next 24hrs!
Going to get some sleep before the extended hours of work this weekend. Keep safe Cayman
I'm done for the night also.. Hockey game is over

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660. 7544
poloma is getting a nice round shape at this hour Link

looks like more than 75mph

the front dosent seem to be moving did it stall
Quoting CybrTeddy:


The "M" stands for Mayhem.


I like the M standing for Mommy. (To be accompanied with a persons jaw dropping.)
The M stands for Major Hurricane.

Paloma didn't take long to be a 'cane, she's in a hurry. Looks pretty impressive.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning #3
15:00 PM JST November 7 2008
==============================================

SUBJECT: CATEGORY ONE TYPHOON IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 06:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Maysak (1002 hPa) located at 13.7N 117.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as moving northwest at 17 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale-Force Winds
================
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 15.3N 114.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 15.0N 113.9E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 13.9N 113.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
Quoting Cotillion:
The M stands for Major Hurricane.

Paloma didn't take long to be a 'cane, she's in a hurry. Looks pretty impressive.


I know I said that earlier. We were just making jokes. sigh off to bed.
Nice that the distinction's made now. And I didn't read all that far back. :P

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 NOV 2008 Time : 061500 UTC
Lat : 17:31:30 N Lon : 81:51:06 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 990.1mb/ 61.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.8 4.1 4.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.3mb

Center Temp : -71.0C Cloud Region Temp : -69.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Slowly dropping, though still around the same estimate of a minimal hurricane.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (0600z 07NOV)
==============================================
An area of convection (94W) located at 7.8N 129.4E or 475 NM east of Zamboanga, Philippines. Animated multispectral imagery shows disorganized convection near a developing low level circulation center. Much like TS Maysak, as it formed the storm is in a favorable upper level environment for development. An anticyclone aloft is providing low vertical wind shear and excellent divergence aloft. The limiting factor at this point for development is interaction with land as the disturbance is rapidly approaching Mindanao, Philippines

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 15-20 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1006 MB. The potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is FAIR.

----
round two for the same area that Maysak went through..
who hear thinks paloma will be category 5 i do, just my opinion
I hope not!
up yo 70 knots 981 hPa (Paloma)
667. TheSavant

I give it a 20~30% chance of strengthening to CAT5....It's very unlikely.
000
WTNT42 KNHC 070913
TCDAT2
HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
400 AM EST FRI NOV 07 2008

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE PALOMA IS STRENGTHENING. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED
TO AT LEAST 981 MB...AND THERE ARE MULTIPLE SFMR AND DROPSONDE
ESTIMATES OF 65-70 KT SURFACE WINDS AROUND THE 16 N MI WIDE EYE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT...AND THIS MAY BE A
LITTLE CONSERVATIVE. WHILE THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL
DIRECTIONS EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST...ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THE HURRICANE IS EXPERIENCING ABOUT
10 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 005/8. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN
THE FORECAST GUIDANCE. PALOMA IS BEING STEERED NORTHWARD BY A
LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AND
THE STORM SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO.
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO CALL FOR THE HURRICANE TO SHEAR APART
AT VARIOUS TIMES BETWEEN 24-96 HR...WITH THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WINDING UP ANYWHERE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
GFDL AND HWRF MODELS FORECAST A VERTICALLY DEEP PALOMA TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC. SINCE
THE INTENSITY FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR PALOMA TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE...THE TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD THE
GFDL/HWRF SOLUTIONS. THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE TO
THE RIGHT OF...THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

PALOMA HAS STRENGTHENED FROM 35 KT TO 70 KT IN THE LAST 24 HR...AND
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING FOR THE
NEXT 24-36 HR. THE GFDL MODEL CALLS FOR PALOMA TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN ABOUT 30 HR...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS
SCENARIO. AFTER 24-36 HR...THE SHEAR INCREASES DRAMATICALLY ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE PALOMA TO SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKEN. THIS WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO BE AIDED BY PASSAGE ACROSS
CUBA BETWEEN 48-72 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 96 HR AND BE COMPLETE BY
120 HR. THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS CAST SOME DOUBT ON WHETHER
THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...EVEN IF PALOMA DOES NOT
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IT SHOULD STILL WEAKEN DUE TO SHEAR.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CUBA LATER THIS MORNING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0900Z 17.8N 81.7W 70 KT
12HR VT 07/1800Z 18.6N 81.6W 80 KT
24HR VT 08/0600Z 19.5N 81.0W 95 KT
36HR VT 08/1800Z 20.4N 80.1W 100 KT
48HR VT 09/0600Z 21.1N 79.1W 90 KT
72HR VT 10/0600Z 23.0N 76.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 11/0600Z 25.0N 73.5W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 12/0600Z 27.0N 70.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Good Morning everyone !
Morning everyone. Raining constantly in East End and winds 34 mph with higher gusts. Looks like paloma has shifted her track further E bringing it closer to this end again.
I think Paloma is ready for rapid intensification just need an eye and bam
Good morning...
676. KRL
Morning Models From SFWMD - Click To Enlarge



msnbc is covering breaking news upcoming. it was the georgians who caused the conflict about a half a yr ago. geez whiz bush. iraq was bad enough. happy weather folks
After analyzing current and past steering maps... and current SAT images to see the behavior of Paloma... I expect here to continue on the left side of the cone as the DLM High has built stronger and expanded a bit further N.

Assuming this setup holds, Caymand Islands may be spared from a direct hit... but should still feel its effects nonetheless. Also, this will put it into higher shear and start decoupling Paloma's circulation.

As expected DMAX helped Paloma moisten up the atmosphere around it and allowed it to grow a bit more.

Personally I still not convinced with the GFS derived models yet as ECMWF and other global models are still not in agreement. Of course the stronger Paloma gets the likely the chances GFS and derived products will come to reality.
It looks like FL has nothing to worry about! I know some were talking about FL maybe needing to watch it. I am assuming it is going to take the forecast track and there is no factors that would pull it to S FL now, right?
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
It looks like FL has nothing to worry about! I know some were talking about FL maybe needing to watch it. I am assuming it is going to take the forecast track and there is no factors that would pull it to S FL now, right?


Currently there's nothing that will put it into S FL under its current strength. If this was to actually make it to S FL it would be in a remnant type form after the Mid and Low lever circulations get sheared appart.
whens next recon?
morning
I have a feeling Rapid intensification is going to occur today. Why? Even though the winds are not increasing much in Paloma, the pressure's dropping fast.
. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM PALOMA
FLIGHT ONE:(ADDED) NOAA 43 WILL FLY A RESEARCH MISSION
IN AND AROUND PALOMA DEPARTING AT 07/0200Z AND
OPERATING AT 8,000 FT.

FLIGHT TWO:(ADDED) NOAA 49 WILL ALSO FLY A RESEARCH
MISSION AROUND PALOMA DEPARTING AT 07/0200Z AND
OPERATING BETWEEN 41,000 AND 45,000 FT.

FLIGHT THREE: NOAA 43 WILL FLY ANOTHER RESEARCH MISSION
IN AND AROUND PALOMA DEPARTING AT 07/1400Z AND OPERATING
AT 8,000 FT.

FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 70
A. 07/1800,08/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0517A PALOMA
C. 07/1430Z
D. 17.8N 82.83W
E. 07/1700Z TO 08/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE - TEAL 71
A. 08/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0617A PALOMA
C. 08/0245Z
D. 18.8N 82.4W
E. 08/0500Z TO 08/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
P-3 AND G-IV MISSIONS DEPARTING AT 08/1400Z.
Morning Bone...
thanks,bonedog
nice that they will fly high altitude research missions. Always seem to get new information and scientific things from those missions not just the surface to 10K missions.

Can't wait to see the data =)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I have a feeling Rapid intensification is going to occur today. Why? Even though the winds are not increasing much in Paloma, the pressure's dropping fast.


If it's able to fight off the approaching shear just like Omar did then definitely. If Omar did it then even a cave woman can do it. :P
current time is 12Z so another 2hrs before NOAA 43 and 49 fly
no problem hurricane556

morning WX
000
WTNT32 KNHC 071150
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PALOMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
700 AM EST FRI NOV 07 2008

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 7 AM EST...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE
AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...AND GRANMA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN ELSEWHERE CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PALOMA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES
AND WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 AM EST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.6 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...
135 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 245 MILES...
395 KM...WEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF PALOMA WILL PASS NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATE
FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PALOMA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AND PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE LATER TODAY...AND POSSIBLY REACH CATEGORY 3
INTENSITY BY SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
70 MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF PALOMA IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 700 AM EST POSITION...18.1 N...81.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Quoting WxLogic:


If it's able to fight off the approaching shear just like Omar did then definitely. If Omar did it then even a cave woman can do it. :P


Shear's pretty low for Today and tomorrow. I think at peak we'll see a 120 MPH Category 3.
693. Vero1

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 071203
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI NOV 07 2008

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA AT 07/1200 UTC IS NEAR 18.1N
81.6W OR ABOUT 75 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT
215 NM WEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA. HURRICANE PALOMA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH AT 7 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO
85 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. HURRICANE PALOMA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 15 NM FROM THE CENTER OF PALOMA...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 NM FROM THE CENTER OF
PALOMA. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AND PALOMA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE LATER TODAY...AND
POSSIBLY REACH CATEGORY 3 INTENSITY BY SATURDAY. PALOMA IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. ALSO...PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. NUMEROUS
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17N83W TO 22N78W...
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF E CUBA.



694. Vero1
000
WTNT32 KNHC 071150
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PALOMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
700 AM EST FRI NOV 07 2008

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 7 AM EST...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE
AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...AND GRANMA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN ELSEWHERE CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PALOMA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES
AND WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 AM EST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.6 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...
135 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 245 MILES...
395 KM...WEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF PALOMA WILL PASS NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATE
FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PALOMA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AND PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE LATER TODAY...AND POSSIBLY REACH CATEGORY 3
INTENSITY BY SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
70 MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF PALOMA IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 700 AM EST POSITION...18.1 N...81.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



695. IKE
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
70 MILES...110 KM.


Paloma is a rather small system. Hopefully with the hurricane force winds only extending outward up to 15 miles(30 mile radius), that portion will miss the Caymans.
I noticed that IKE. Even though the cloud presentation is large on Sat the system itself is rather tiny
697. IKE
Weather station Link on Grand Cayman.
698. IKE
Quoting Bonedog:
I noticed that IKE. Even though the cloud presentation is large on Sat the system itself is rather tiny


I noticed that looking at the Caribbean/western Atlantic satellite.
I have been hoping the same thing Ike.
If it stays on this track though...they will get all of it.
Praying for a big wobble here:


Photobucket

700. IKE
Quoting vortfix:
I have been hoping the same thing Ike.
If it stays on this track though...they will get all of it.
Praying for a big wobble here:


Photobucket



Unfortunately, I agree. Easy to follow on the floater.


Paloma does have nice structure today
Looking at this Caymens still have to worry. Looks like they are still inside the hightest wind fields
We are in Jamaica right now, Negril, on the western tip, to be precise. Raining, but not much wind, at this point. What I'm seeing is that it should mostly miss us, right?
good morning Paloma

706. 786
conditions in Grand Cayman are deteriorating rapidly, we have torrential rains, flooding is apparent and winds are 20 knots with higher gusts
here's what I found

Link

Caymans and Cuba are exclusive targets to Paloma NOT the U.S.

Caymans watch out!
708. IKE
Quoting jinjamaica:
We are in Jamaica right now, Negril, on the western tip, to be precise. Raining, but not much wind, at this point. What I'm seeing is that it should mostly miss us, right?


Unless it does a hard right soon(which is unlikely), you should be okay.
jamaica should fare well maybe some rain but that's about it
bonedog, do you have a link to the imagery that you posted?
hurricane556

microwave

visable

thanks
no problem
Thanks for the reassurance. We are in a wooden cabin on the beach so I've been a little concerned for the past several days...
Good morning everyone. Checking on the latest.
Quoting Bonedog:
good morning Paloma



Eye's trying to pop out, defiantly starting to intensify again.
eye forming on visable now. well defined eye wall evident from the overshooting cloud tops

Paloma - Dove - Peace yeah right!!
Now looking for some good recipes for sauteed dove to use after this i8nterlude in our pleasant existence.
Will never feel sorry for them in the Olympic Flame any more :-)

LOL w/ CyberTeddy posting the old image from 7:30 and the new one, amazing the changes very evident that and eye is forming now.
Eye also visible on NHC site.
Morning all,
The latest loops do show some changes in structure...
looking forward to seeing the next couple of images.
CRS
723. IKE
Paloma is heading right toward Grand Cayman....unfortunately. Please spare this paradise island.....
re: Paloma is heading right toward Grand Cayman....unfortunately.


thoughts & prayers to our friends.

jo
725. XL
I live about 100 yards from the sea on the northwest point of Grand Cayman.
It is gettting quite rough here now. It's been raining non stop for hours and is pretty windy. The sea is also getting quite rough with big swells.
Hubby has just driven into work and says flooding of roadways is evident already.
Paloma is finally "in the picture" at the PSU ir rapid scan:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATRAPID/anim16ir.html
727. IKE
Quoting XL:
I live about 100 yards from the sea on the northwest point of Grand Cayman.
It is gettting quite rough here now. It's been raining non stop for hours and is pretty windy. The sea is also getting quite rough with big swells.
Hubby has just driven into work and says flooding of roadways is evident already.


Work?

I'm hoping that maybe it will veer right between your island and the islands to your east.

Eye becoming more visible...looks to be intensifying.
many thoughts and prayers to those who are and will be affected by this storm
729. IKE
Another bad thing about Paloma...it's only moving at 8 mph....prolonging the affects.
Looks like the protoeye clouded over again but still has overshooting tops around it. Soon soon.

731. XL
IKE

yes everyone has gone into work at his place. Only for a bout an hour top make sure everything is safe there. Then they park their cars in the car park there which is the safest place they can be (only 3rd party insurance)
732. IKE
Quoting XL:
IKE

yes everyone has gone into work at his place. Only for a bout an hour top make sure everything is safe there. Then they park their cars in the car park there which is the safest place they can be (only 3rd party insurance)


Okay....I understand. Good luck to you and your island.
Quoting XL:
I live about 100 yards from the sea on the northwest point of Grand Cayman.
It is gettting quite rough here now. It's been raining non stop for hours and is pretty windy. The sea is also getting quite rough with big swells.
Hubby has just driven into work and says flooding of roadways is evident already.


XL, 100 yds from the sea? are you sea level or up on a hill? because if you are sea level ... YOU DO NOT WANT TO STAY THERE. work? your husband is aware of the hurricane ... right?
okay XL i see your comments about work. but are you sea level????
I remember that Dean had issue's with opening its eye.
looking at weather sites from the caymans winds are East at 30 gusting 43

Hopefully you all faire well!!
Quoting IKE:


Work?

I'm hoping that maybe it will veer right between your island and the islands to your east.

Eye becoming more visible...looks to be intensifying.


Hoping the seem thing , getting quite nasty here now!
Morning all :)
Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site (New Format)
739. XL
Hi

We are about 27 feet above sea level. Not a bad position as it goes.
Hubby on way home.
Just lit the BIG candle - prayers in mind for all of my cayman friends and their friends & families.

That horrible feeling of helplessness is back again --I get emotionally attached as I watch these things....Hurricane Ike, now Paloma sashaying over those islands..... just not a clinical personality here...I'd be a wreck if i was a forecaster.

I'm thinking of all the animals too.....right now I will do what I can -- raise the protection dome over the humans and critters... pray this looks worse then it is, pray for the safety & better good of all
The track has a dead hit on me here in the bahamas. I hope wind sheer and cuba will help us out any thoughts.
I'm out for most of the day, but friends of the Caymans will be in mind.

Lots of driving to do today (round trip Ocala) - young buck has a practice in for the big polo match this weekend - butterflies in my tummy.

Just requesting clear skies and NO wind on Sunday. At 15yrs. playing w/men --I want every advantage we can have.
Morning All,
Hi Baha , I see that, my worry is that it will keep shifting east...as it approaches the Bahamas...
Quoting bahamacast:
The track has a dead hit on me here in the bahamas. I hope wind sheer and cuba will help us out any thoughts.


Cuba has been absolutely hammered this year, and it looks like its going to get nailed again. Whats left of their tourist trade is going to get trashed again.
Quoting XL:
Hi

We are about 27 feet above sea level. Not a bad position as it goes.
Hubby on way home.


Stay safe...keep us updated while you can...
734

The highest natural point on Garnd Cayman is 70 feet!
Ive been working hurricanes since July I hope this one misses everyone I need a break as do those in its path.... Howdy all.
Quoting bahamacast:
The track has a dead hit on me here in the bahamas. I hope wind sheer and cuba will help us out any thoughts.


Good luck with that.
Bahama from what I have been seeing in the models and such looks like the Bahamas might get some rain and gusty winds. Shear and Cuba will be doing one heck of a job on Paloma. Appears as of now that the Bahamas may be spaired. Just keep an eye on it as it crosses Cuba
stormpetrol .. may you and yours be safe and know that you are in everyones thoughts! i hope your preparations are complete.
Hi everyone. Just back from work in GT. Savannah & Bodden Town flooded. East End winds gusting to 56. Rain,rain & more rain.
Thanks i dont want to put up shutters.
hope all stay safe. I am out just dropped on to check the track.
can someone comment on what they see in terms of track and intensity for Grand Cayman and best bet for arrival time of Paloma...thanks
Quoting XL:
Hi

We are about 27 feet above sea level. Not a bad position as it goes.
Hubby on way home.


I was checking some of the pictures you posted after Gustav was in your area. Were the pictures taken from your house. If so, it appears that you are closer than I would want to be during a storm.

XL .. glad to hear that you are 27ft above sea level. you certainly are in all of our thoughts and prayers. i hope you have completed all your preparations.
New Computer Model Output for Hurricane Paloma



no more overshooting tops. CDO is evident.

It looks like your all going to get the dirty side of Paloma.



Click to enlarge.
758 CCHSWeatherman

Anyone giving those 2 outlier west-banking models any credit? I saw that Dr. Masters discredited them due to the projected intensity of the storm. Anyone have a reason to believe they are still valid?
looking at MIMIC Paloma is experiencing an EWRC

Link
at least for kman this aint no ivan good luck caymanites
Morning everyone....
morning Tampa
The NOGAPS model is completely out to sea with Paloma, it doesn't have a clue. Throw it out the window.
I hoping for a more eastward movement that would spare us the brunt, maybe wishful thinking on my part but the eye was SSW earlier, now it it appears to be directly South of Grand Cayman and basically no change in latitude which would point to a more eastward movement , anyone else notice this or just wishful thinking on my part.
I'm thinking it will cross us here in Grand Cayman between 4-7 pm this evening, probably around 65 miles due south of us right now.
WV of the coming front. Dropped a little south in the night.
770. IKE
Quoting stormpetrol:
I hoping for a more eastward movement that would spare us the brunt, maybe wishful thinking on my part but the eye was SSW earlier, now it it appears to be directly South of Grand Cayman and basically no change in latitude which would point to a more eastward movement , anyone else notice this or just wishful thinking on my part.


Looks like it's aiming right at Grand Cayman.
re: 767. stormpetrol 9:21 AM EST on November 07, 2008
I hoping for a more eastward movement


wishful thinking here, too for you guys....taz's pinhole looks EAST of the forecast points to me right now....

jo
Quoting stormpetrol:
I hoping for a more eastward movement that would spare us the brunt, maybe wishful thinking on my part but the eye was SSW earlier, now it it appears to be directly South of Grand Cayman and basically no change in latitude which would point to a more eastward movement , anyone else notice this or just wishful thinking on my part.


NHC Official Track just shifted East.. good call



That being said.. if you throw in the late model Spaghetti runs.. they show it stalling soon.
From Snug Harbour (just off and in the middle of West Bay Road)- Canal is rising and flowing fast! The pool is close to overflowing and the yard is beginning to flood. Rain, rain and more rain. Wind picking up....best wishes to everyone in GC and thanks to all for their kind thoughts and prayers.
Quoting IKE:


Looks like it's aiming right at Grand Cayman.


Doesn't look like Grand Cayman's going to get mercy from this one.
It looks a tad west of south. Looking at this your islands weather station may have quit working.
777. IKE
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Doesn't look like Grand Cayman's going to get mercy from this one.


12 hour forecast from the NHC has it going right over the island....

12HR VT 08/0000Z 19.1N 81.3W 90 KT



Coordinates for Grand Cayman listed on WU are....

19.2N
81.4W
778. IKE
105 mph winds for Grand Cayman is what's forecast.
Quoting gadester:
From Snug Harbour (just off and in the middle of West Bay Road)- Canal is rising and flowing fast! The pool is close to overflowing and the yard is beginning to flood. Rain, rain and more rain. Wind picking up....best wishes to everyone in GC and thanks to all for their kind thoughts and prayers.
Our thoughts will be with you as will our prayers for safe passage through the storm.


Hurricane Paloma 13:45 UTC

Here in Kingston, it is amazing to report that the sky is clear and the sun out in all it's glory. This despite the presence of Paloma some 300 miles directly west of us.This, of course is likely to change and we expect some of the outer rain bands.
Hurricane Paloma Short Visible Loop Link

NOAA Image Page
I would have to say it looks like paloma is headed more NNW for the moment,being drawn toward the trough....this TC will come closer to FL than forcast,though likely as a weaker TC maybe even just a reminent low if it goes to far north!!!!
11 AM in, Paloma stronger now with 85 MPH winds and a pressure of 979 MB, equal that of a Category 2.
Quoting IKE:


12 hour forecast from the NHC has it going right over the island....

12HR VT 08/0000Z 19.1N 81.3W 90 KT



Coordinates for Grand Cayman listed on WU are....

19.2N
81.4W


One thing I must say Paloma doesn't appear to be carrying large waves or seas, its rough but not the surge with Gustav or even Ike, at least not here in South Sound anyways, other areas of the Island/s could be a whole different story. It appears for now rain and flooding are the major problems , hope it speeds up and passes soon.


Looks like the eyewall is poping tops again and the protoeye is peeking out again
Floater - Funktop Color Infrared Loop
Hurricane Paloma Link
Recon AF303 just turned on. Should be taking off soon.

Best of luck to those in Grand Cayman. Be safe. Expect lots of rain.
12hr raintotals
The Trough has moved maybe 200 miles in 6 hours
791. XL
Seems to be getting worse by the minute here. Sea is now very rough (Not quite as bad as it was with Gustav - Pics on my page). Rain is relentless and the wind is really picking up.
Crossing everythig I can cross
Into the Fray again for 303 Skyepony.

Looks like 08 Swan Song Cane.

Thanks for the reports and recon this season.






the hurricane looks really angry now.
This is a nice loop to look at the big pic of the trough and Paloma.....That trough needs to speed up or Paloma needs to slow down some...WV LOOP Link
Frontal Squall Line just Blasted thru here..was Gusty and Heavy rains with it.


NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI Link
thats wierd.....

Cayman Retreat, George Town, Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands (PWS)
Updated: 9:52 AM EST on November 07, 2008
74.9 °F
Rain
Humidity: 91%
Dew Point: 72 °F

Wind: 13.8 mph from the SE
Wind Gust: 13.8 mph


Pressure: 29.83 in (Falling)


No doubt if Grand Cayman or Brac gets the right front Quad,its going to be a Wild Ride as Paloma is a Tight well Stacked and well structured cane with a Downward trend in pressure.
All bad for those in that path.

Path and forward speed all critical with this one .
Then Cuba is going to get bit,too.
HURRICANE PALOMA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
1000 AM EST FRI NOV 07 2008

...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS APPROACHING GRAND CAYMAN...

...
AT 1000 AM EST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.6 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...
120 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 245 MILES...390
KM...WEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PALOMA WILL PASS NEAR THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS LATE TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY AND BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF
CENTRAL CUBA LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PALOMA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AND PALOMA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TODAY...AND
POSSIBLY REACH CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY BY SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.
Wave forecast is actually slightly down from yesterday with the worst being 8-9 meters.

This one is even lower topping out around 12-14ft.

I can't really see surge being a huge factor between the deep waters that surround those islands & Paloma hasn't been a raging majors for days.
Greetings from Grand Cayman :( Does anyone know when we can expect next update? Roads are already flooded (due to ave rainfall saturated most land over the past four days). We are prepared. Water Authority is shutting the system down at 11AM EST. (Now 10AM here)
anyone know whats up with the Navy site? Hasn't updated in a while
Cayman....

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 100 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM EST.
Quoting Patrap:
Into the Fray again for 303 Skyepony.

Looks like 08 Swan Song Cane.

Thanks for the reports and recon this season.









One day I WILL be working in/flying one of those!!!!
I've been thinking more and more about joining the AF or coast guard and want to get into there weather program...now that we have a commander and chief that I would have no problem working under....
804. Miami
This is a weather site...please keep your political views outside of the blog.
Quoting stillwaiting:



One day I WILL be working in/flying one of those!!!!
I've been thinking more and more about joining the AF or coast guard and want to get into there weather program...now that we have a commander and chief that I would have no problem working under....
The backup navy site has been better on the ball the last few days. Ignore that security cert thing if it comes up.

Thanks Patrap:) I did what I could. Photo moderating ate up alot of my storm time & when the storms got bad well I was suddenly a lazy moderater..lol. Anyways, I've rotated out so next season I should be a little more helpful. Thanks for all the links & info you've brought too. When it's coming for you like Fay did this year here, it's a huge help having everyone else dig up the info.
Quoting Miami:
This is a weather site...please keep your political views outside of the blog.



what are you a mod????,I don't think so!!!!HA,HA
since we just moved past a "page break"...

HURRICANE PALOMA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
1000 AM EST FRI NOV 07 2008

...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS APPROACHING GRAND CAYMAN...

...
AT 1000 AM EST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.6 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...
120 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 245 MILES...390
KM...WEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PALOMA WILL PASS NEAR THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS LATE TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY AND BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF
CENTRAL CUBA LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PALOMA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AND PALOMA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TODAY...AND
POSSIBLY REACH CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY BY SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER
...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.


==================================


HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
1000 AM EST FRI NOV 07 2008

PALOMA IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING WITH HINTS OF AN EYE
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED
TO 75 KT AND IS IN LINE WITH MOST RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB/SAB. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO BEFORE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. CURIOUSLY...THE GFDL/HWRF
NOW SHOW THE HURRICANE COMING UP A BIT SHY OF MAJOR HURRICANE
STATUS. UNTIL WE SEE SOME SIGNS THAT PALOMA IS NOT CONTINUING TO
INTENSIFY...IT IS BEST TO KEEP THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF THE SYSTEM
BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE.
I was stating how I would like to get into a weather program????is that not "talkn' weather"???
Quoting Skyepony:
The backup navy site has been better on the ball the last few days. Ignore that security cert thing if it comes up.

Thanks Patrap:) I did what I could. Photo moderating ate up alot of my storm time & when the storms got bad well I was suddenly a lazy moderater..lol. Anyways, I've rotated out so next season I should be a little more helpful. Thanks for all the links & info you've brought too. When it's coming for you like Fay did this year here, it's a huge help having everyone else dig up the info.


skypony:did you see that surfmom's son is in a polo competition this weekend???,pretty cool huh???I rode from when I was 14-16yrs old...
eye alert!!!!
hello guys just got back from town ,what a mess people still on roads at gas stations supermarkets closed at 9:30 and they were still packed ,as i said before the gov is to blame not informing people in time although some has to go to the populice as well winds picking up rain pretty consistant the road i am on is flooded with rain water will update with furter as it comes
This storm seems to be a rain maker....it is pouring here and is not really letting up...my son is tearing up the house!...Paloma is looking like a perfect little hurricane now on the visible...