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Paloma near Category 2 strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:02 PM GMT on November 07, 2008

Hurricane Paloma continues to intensify. The latest data from the Hurricane Hunters indicate that the storm is close to Category 2 strength. Between 1 pm and 3 pm EST, an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft dropped two sondes in the northwest eyewall of Paloma, and found winds of 90 and 97 mph at the surface from these sondes. The threshold of Category 2 strength is 96 mph. Winds at the surface measured by the SFMR instrument were as high as 92 mph, and the NOAA aircraft just records 101 mph winds at 3:15 pm EST. Sondes released by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft in the past hour have found winds of 90 mph in the southeast eyewall, 69 mph in the southwest eyewall, and 67 mph in the northwest eyewall. Clearly, the right (east) side of Paloma is the stronger side, since the forward speed of the hurricane adds to the rotational speed of the vortex on the right side of a Northern Hemisphere hurricane. The central pressure of Paloma is dropping at about 3 mb per hour. The Hurricane Hunters noted that Paloma appeared to be forming a second eyewall concentric with the main eyewall at 1:30 pm, and there was also evidence of this on visible satellite loops. There was also a gap noted in the SSW side of the eyewall by the Hurricane Hunters at 1:30 pm, but this gap was gone by 3 pm. The storm is undergoing some substantial structural changes, and is probably entering a rapid deepening phase. Formation of a secondary concentric eyewall will ordinarily slow down intensification of a hurricane, but is also spreads out the highest winds over a larger area. I'm not convinced that a concentric eyewall is forming, though. Recent infrared imagery shows that the eye has warmed, indicating strengthening. Some very impressive thunderstorms with high, cold tops are firing up at several points in the eyewall (Figure 1), also indicative of strengthening. These thunderstorms may be "hot towers", which are often observed when a hurricane is embarking upon a major intensification phase.

Winds at the Grand Cayman airport were 38 mph, gusting to 53 mph at 2 pm EST, and heavy rain was falling. The airport has received 2.44" of rain so far today. According to wunderground member Jennie Henning at 2 pm today: Conditions here on the island are getting worse - the wind is roaring an the rain is horizontal at times. We're busy locking up and bunkering down.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Paloma showing very intense thunderstorms developing at several points along the eyewall.

The intensity forecast
Wind shear is a moderate 10-15 knots, and is expected to slowly increase to 20 knots Saturday morning and above 35 knots on Saturday night. Paloma should be able to intensify until it reaches a point near 20° North Latitude (between the Cayman Islands and Cuba) Saturday morning. I expect Paloma will be at Category 2 strength with 105-110 mph winds when it passes near or over Grand Cayman Island tonight, and will briefly intensify to Category 3 strength after passing Grand Cayman. By Saturday morning, shear should rapidly weaken Paloma, and the hurricane will probably make landfall on Cuba Saturday afternoon or evening as a strong Category 1 hurricane. Passage over Cuba and continued high wind shear will further weaken Paloma before it arrives in the Bahamas Sunday night, and I expect Paloma will be a tropical storm with 45-55 mph winds as it blows through the Bahamas. The latest (12Z, 7 am EST) run of both the HWRF and GFDL models predict that Paloma will hit Grand Cayman Island between 9 pm and 1 am EST tonight. The GFDL predicts Paloma will be a Category 2 storm with 100-105 mph winds, while the HWRF predicts only 85 mph winds. The latest 18Z SHIPS model puts Paloma as a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds at landfall in Grand Cayman. The GFDL and HWRF predict a landfall in Cuba Saturday afternoon as a Category 2 hurricane with 100-105 mph winds.

The track forecast
A strong trough of low pressure approaching the U.S. East Coast is pulling Paloma to the north, and this trough should continue to pull the storm northwards and then turn it northeastward by Saturday morning. It appears likely that Grand Cayman will receive hurricane force winds from Paloma, and there is a 70% chance the island will get hit with a portion of the eyewall. The HWRF model is predicting that Little Cayman and Cayman Brac should only see top sustained winds of 50 mph, but the GFDL predicts a little eastward jog that would bring Category 2 winds of 100 mph to these islands. It will be a close call. Jamaica should see winds of just 20-30 mph from Paloma.

Damage potential for Paloma
Grand Cayman Island is not that prone to large storm surges, since it lies in deep water, and a hurricane's surge tends to flow around the island rather than get pushed up onto shore. The main concern from Paloma is wind damage. A direct hit from a Category 2 hurricane would likely do about $100 million dollars in damage, a nasty blow for an island that just this year finished recovering from the devastating punch delivered by Hurricane Ivan of 2004. Ivan damaged or destroyed 85% of the islands buildings, and caused $1.85 billion in damage. Much of Grand Cayman still remained without power, water, or sewer services for several months after the hurricane. The latest H*Wind analysis of Integrated Kinetic Energy from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division puts the potential wind damage at 1.2 on a scale of 1 to 6, and the potential storm surge damage at 1.5 on a scale of 1 to 6. These numbers will increase later today, but Paloma should be nothing like Hurricane Ivan.

According to the insurance company AIR Worldwide: Insured residential properties are dominated by wood frame and confined masonry. Commercial properties tend to not exceed six stories and are constructed of reinforced concrete. However, after the destruction wrought by Hurricane Ivan in 2004, the Cayman Islands underwent a major rebuilding process. New construction is now superior to much of the rest of the Caribbean countries in terms of wind resistivity. As a result, depending on Paloma's track through the islands, properties may sustain only minor to moderate damage to roof shingles and non-structural elements.

Links to follow
Grand Cayman airport weather
Grand Cayman weather
Wundermap for the Cayman Islands

Historical November tropical cyclones
(This section is a repeat from this morning's blog entry). Historically, only about 5% of all Atlantic tropical storm activity occurs after November 1. Between 1871 and 2007, 60 tropical storms formed in November. Of these, 29 became hurricanes, and four of these, major hurricanes. There have also been two major hurricanes that formed in October and continued on into November. On average, one tropical storm forms in November every other year, and we can expect a November hurricane about one year in five.

The six major November hurricanes were Hurricane Michelle of 2001 (Cat 4, 140 mph); Hurricane Lenny of 1999 (Cat 4, 150 mph); Hurricane Kate of 1985 (Cat 3, 120 mph); Hurricane Greta of 1956 (Cat 4, 140 mph); Hurricane 10 of 1932 (Cat 4, 135 mph); and Hurricane 7 of 1912 (Cat 3, 115 mph). There have been no major hurricanes in the months December through April.

Major hurricanes in the Atlantic by month, 1851-2008
----------------------------------------------------------------------
May 1
June 3
July 9
August 80
September 149
October 60
November 6

In the list above, if a hurricane was at major hurricane strength in two separate months, it is counted as a major hurricane for both months.

November hurricanes of note
The most extraordinary November hurricane was "Wrong-Way Lenny", which hit the northern Leeward Islands as a strong Category 4 hurricane with 155 mph winds on November 17-18, 1999. Lenny was the first storm to have an extended west-to-east track across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea in the 135-year Atlantic tropical cyclone record, and was the strongest November hurricane on record. Hurricane Gordon was the deadliest November hurricane. It claimed 1122 lives in Haiti when it passed just west of the country as a tropical storm on November 13, 1994. Lenny claimed six lives in Costa Rica, five in the Dominican Republic, two in Jamaica, two in Cuba, and eight in Florida. Property damage to the United States was estimated at $400 million (1994 dollars), and was severe in Haiti and Cuba as well.

Three November hurricanes have hit the U.S.--an unnamed 1916 Category 1 hurricane that hit the Florida Keys, an unnamed 1925 Category 1 hurricane that struck Sarasota, Florida, and Hurricane Kate, which struck the Florida Panhandle on November 22, 1985.

A new record for the hurricane season of 2008?
This year and 2005 are the only seasons that we've had major hurricanes in the Atlantic in four separate months--July, August, September, and October. If Paloma becomes a major hurricane, it will make 2008 the first year since record keeping began in 1851 to feature major hurricanes in five separate months.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, and possibly later tonight.

Jeff Masters
Ivan damage Cayman
Ivan damage Cayman
Under da sea
Under da sea
I ran into this young hawksbill in about 40 feet of water off Cayman Brac.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

How much more intensifying does Paloma need to be to become the first cat 5 in this season.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Is the time any different if IWC says it instead of Cotillion?

LOL

Lordy, Lordy. I need to drink some coffee before I start making all these cutesy comments . . .

No need to quote...I can find out myselft that they are both in Europe (maybe London to be specific).
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:
How much more intensifying does Paloma need to be to become the first cat 5 in this season.

156-135=21 mph.
In terms of NHC's nearest 5-mph rounding, 160-135=25 mph.
Quoting Bobbyweather:

No need to quote...I can find out myselft that they are both in Europe (maybe London to be specific).


No, we're not. IWC is presumably from Ipswich.

And I'm nowhere near London. Anyway, whatever. I'm very much looking forward to the post-season analysis this year. We could see quite a few upgrades.
Quoting Bobbyweather:

156-135=21 mph.
In terms of NHC's nearest 5-mph rounding, 160-135=25 mph.


Probability of it intensifying that much before its death near cuba?
1006. WxLogic
Good morning...

Well... Paloma has exploded.

As it stands... the trough pushing it starting to lift out and due to this an E component to its movement should be terminating in 24 to 36 hours. As a High builds to its N and E it should start causing Paloma to meander and start moving on a WNW to NW type fashion.

Will be interesting to see if it can keep up its strength... if it does as it moves on a N to W it could fight off the shear for a longer than than expected. This is an unique situation as we rarely see these type of major hurricane which can easely defy anything that is throw at it.

I hope those in the Little Caymans are doing ok and God protect them.
Paloma's overall windfield is growing, though the hurricane force winds don't seem to be spreading much so far.

Is it me, or is that track now looking distinctly ENE? Does that mean we get another hit on the eastern end of Cuba and the SE Bahamas???? A central Bahamas hit would require a left turn back to the north. . .
Quoting Bobbyweather:

No need to quote...I can find out myselft that they are both in Europe (maybe London to be specific).

Quoting Cotillion:


No, we're not. IWC is presumably from Ipswich.

And I'm nowhere near London. Anyway, whatever. I'm very much looking forward to the post-season analysis this year. We could see quite a few upgrades.


I used to live in London bobby... where are you Cotillion...

Also I am looking forward to it to.... we should see an unnamed storm.

EDIT:Sorry for the spelling of bobby... my fingers are not working correctly.
Quoting Cotillion:


No, we're not. IWC is presumably from Ipswich.

And I'm nowhere near London.

All arguments to my blog...please. No arguments are needed in Dr.M's blog.
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:



I used to live in London bobby... where are you Cotillion...

Also I am looking forward to it to.... we should see an unnamed storm.

...
when for a category 5? when the NHC sees Dvorak Intensity of 7.0

Think right now they're reading between 6.0 and 6.5.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
when for a category 5? when the NHC sees Dvorak Intensity of 7.0

Think right now they're reading between 6.0 and 6.5.


Recon will get pulled out in about half an hour... then were back to sat estimates... So... hopefully it might come true before weakening to a tropical depression before landfall.
Quoting Bobbyweather:

No need to quote...I can find out myselft that they are both in Europe (maybe London to be specific).
I know both are in UK. Where exactly my brain doesn't recall . . . I did mention the need for the coffee to end the excessive brain quirkiness. It is brewing now, thank the good Lord.

Cotillion, which part of the island are you in? And isn't somebody in Wales now?
Quoting Bobbyweather:

...


I did say sorry.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I know both are in UK. Where exactly my brain doesn't recall . . . I did mention the need for the coffee to end the excessive brain quirkiness. It is brewing now, thank the good Lord.

Cotillion, which part of the island are you in? And isn't somebody in Wales now?


The brits are invading!!!!!!!!!!!


Not much damage to houses.
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


I did say sorry.

I accept your apology.


Who thinks Paloma will strengthen into a CAT5?
I am upping my chances to 40~50%.
Quoting Bobbyweather:

I accept your apology.


Who thinks Paloma will strengthen into a CAT5?
I am upping my chances to 40~50%.


I think 60%... also.. congrats on your prediction... you just got you MH's wrong.
1019. WxLogic
Latest...

6.7 / 930.8mb/132.2kt
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


I think 60%... also.. congrats on your prediction... you just got you MH's wrong.

No..I only got the named storm right. My prediction was 16/7/4. It's now 16/8/5.
Quoting WxLogic:
Latest...

6.7 / 930.8mb/132.2kt


Nearly there.....

Final flight of the day:
FLIGHT FIVE - TEAL 71
A. 08/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0617A PALOMA
C. 08/0245Z
D. 18.8N 82.4W
E. 08/0500Z TO 08/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
Quoting WxLogic:
Latest...

6.7 / 930.8mb/132.2kt

I am also upping my prediction to 60%, because of the CIMSS ADT estimate of 132.2kt (152.2mph).
000
NOUS42 KNHC 071430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EST FRI 07 NOVEMBER 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z NOVEMBER 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-160

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE PALOMA
FLIGHT ONE:(ADDED) NOAA 49 WILL FLY A SURVEILLANCE
RESEARCH MISSION AROUND PALOMA DEPARTING AT 08/0200Z
AND OPERATING BETWEEN 41,000 AND 45,000 FT.

FLIGHT TWO: NOAA 43 WILL FLY A RESEARCH MISSION
IN AND AROUND PALOMA DEPARTING AT 08/1400Z AND
OPERATING AT 12,000 FT.

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 70
A. 08/1800,09/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0717A PALOMA
C. 08/1415Z
D. 20.3N 80.0W
E. 08/1700Z TO 09/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 71
A. 09/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0817A PALOMA
C. 09/0215Z
D. 21.2N 78.84W
E. 09/0500Z TO 09/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

III. NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE NEGATIVE.
JWP

Why are they chickening out?
Quoting Bobbyweather:

I am also upping my prediction to 60%, because of the CIMSS ADT estimate of 132.2kt (152.2mph).


I'm upping to 67%
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


I'm upping to 67%

Is that 2/3...66.66666.....%? I think you rounded it up.
(Sorry for being off-topic.)
43.1 knots (~ 49.5 mph)
Tropical Storm winds found...

And is anyone therre?
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:
43.1 knots (~ 49.5 mph)
Tropical Storm winds found...

And is anyone therre?

That is a sign of strengthening...Last time you posted it was near 40 mph (I can't remember).
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Is that 2/3...66.66666.....%? I think you rounded it up.
(Sorry for being off-topic.)


Lol... Yes... my prediction is really 66.6666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666 666666666666666%

Also SFMR getting 50 mph winds.
1029. WxLogic
Very nice... they're doing GIV missions as we speak they should be done soon. Will be interesting to see how the 12Z runs do.

Good luck to Kman and others in the Caymans.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS a pinhole eye...just kidding. it actually looks like it. See the Navy site.
1032. aquak9
Pulling this link from Hurricanecrab's blog (Cayman Brac), thanks Rainman32

-realtime conditions from the Brac
-takes a few seconds to load
- NOT for the faint of heart

Link
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:
000

Why are they chickening out?
My impression was that the NOAA research flights usually stay in the upper areas of the storm, I guess because of either the way the data is being collected or because of the aircraft itself. StormW or Patrap or one of the other ex-military types on the blog prolly can give a more accurate explanation.
1034. aquak9
ipswich- just NOAA planes? No Air Force?

Man I fear for those P3's, after a coupla years ago and what Felix did to one of'm...

Prayers for those in the air.
oh dear God poor brac

also ugh I fell asleep too much missed the cat 4 update
Morning everyone. Seems like Grand Cayman was spared the worst of Paloma but looks like Little Cayman is getting a direct hit right now as Cat 4 with 135 mph winds. This is the smallest of the three islands. Cayman Brac is having 85 mph winds now.
1037. aquak9
post 1032- take a minute to look at it. Barometer has fallen about 16 in the last hour. still bombing.
Quoting aquak9:
Pulling this link from Hurricanecrab's blog (Cayman Brac), thanks Rainman32

-realtime conditions from the Brac
-takes a few seconds to load
- NOT for the faint of heart

Link
Morning aqua. Thanks for the link. I think I just saw a 93 mph gust! and winds look sustained at about 48mph so far. Wonder how long that site will be up . . ..

Also, any word from Grand Cayman so far this a. m? I'm wondering if power is out.
I was right the little sisters did get the worst

I knew that jog to the right was bad news for them

(some had said Paloma would miss all isles altogether)
1040. WxLogic
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning aqua. Thanks for the link. I think I just saw a 93 mph gust! and winds look sustained at about 48mph so far. Wonder how long that site will be up . . ..

Also, any word from Grand Cayman so far this a. m? I'm wondering if power is out.


StormwatcherCI is from there. Hehe... he gave us a quick update on the last couple posts.
CI, are u on GC? I just saw ur post.
brb gotta refresh my browser
wow down 20 milibars in an hour
check orca's blog or zoomiami he should be on GCI Baha
Quoting WxLogic:


StormwatcherCI is from there. Hehe... he gave us a quick update on the last couple posts.
LOL just saw that. . . Looks like the Brac is going to get the worst, since Paloma looks to be strengthening even further right now . . .
it looks like max winds at little brac were 101 so far, and sustained between 60-80, pressure seems to have leveled at 965
1047. WxLogic
Based on Sat and HHunter reports... looks like Paloma might be taking the souther track and not hitting the Little Cayman's head on. So they should be on a NE to E winds for a while.
Didn't Brac just get Gustav?

like I said poor sisters
1049. aquak9
by the way, g'morning to every one here. Hate to just barge in screaming like that without being mannerly.

Hopefully that link will be active for a while, if one can stomach it.

The cold cloud tops showing up impressivly- not so last night, certainly has gained some anger in the past 6 hours.
Guidance looks like a handful of flowers this morning - clustered tightly over Cuba, but branching wildly after that. I'm still noting what seems to be a pronounced ENE movement, perhaps enough to keep Paloma's centre just south of the lesser Caymans?



morning

by the way JMA just released their best track for Typhoon Jangmi

905HPA 115KT.. they lowered the pressure 5 hectopascal

pretty nearly matches the 900 hPa that Hong Kong Observatory was giving for the typhoon
Quoting BahaHurican:
I know both are in UK. Where exactly my brain doesn't recall . . . I did mention the need for the coffee to end the excessive brain quirkiness. It is brewing now, thank the good Lord.

Cotillion, which part of the island are you in? And isn't somebody in Wales now?


Near Manchester.
truly a classical definition of explosive deepening/rapid intensification

a possible moderate to strong cat 4 should be apropriate I say some where between 145 to 150 is it's peak if i'm wrong then we'll have the 1st cat 5 of the Nov month
AF302 0617A PALOMA HDOB 53 20081108
110900 1932N 07958W 7007 02834 9779 +064 +060 339104 110 109 056 00
110930 1932N 07956W 6897 02894 9685 +077 +060 343099 111 127 039 03
111000 1932N 07955W 6993 02704 9579 +104 +060 329092 094 121 014 03
111030 1933N 07953W 6980 02682 9461 +175 +060 335064 073 079 006 03
111100 1934N 07951W 6984 02648 9403 +209 +060 333029 038 052 006 00
111130 1935N 07950W 6992 02638 9396 +215 +060 301005 011 030 006 03
111200 1936N 07949W 6972 02671 9417 +200 +060 118005 010 028 006 03
111230 1938N 07947W 6960 02701 9429 +194 +060 121014 020 035 007 00
111300 1938N 07947W 6960 02701 9482 +171 +058 109027 047 096 007 03
111330 1941N 07948W 6970 02739 9568 +118 +060 093081 089 113 011 03
111400 1943N 07950W 6943 02832 9676 +085 +060 082105 109 127 028 03
111430 1945N 07951W 6947 02914 9793 +063 +060 068109 111 100 042 00
111500 1946N 07953W 6964 02951 9868 +051 +051 060097 103 079 051 03
111530 1947N 07954W 6946 03000 9905 +048 +048 062089 092 077 029 03
111600 1948N 07956W 6954 03017 9914 +065 +060 062082 083 074 019 00
111630 1950N 07957W 6965 03023 9913 +081 +060 065078 080 067 012 00
111700 1951N 07959W 6976 03025 9938 +076 +060 065071 073 064 012 00
111730 1953N 08000W 6967 03047 9955 +074 +060 065068 069 061 011 00
111800 1954N 08001W 6967 03060 9970 +072 +060 068066 068 060 011 03
111830 1955N 08002W 6959 03077 9987 +070 +060 067058 062 056 011 03
Good morning all. Have been watching this monster for days. Am now monitoring the Cayman brac site that aqua linked. It is a hard thing to see. My heart goes out to everyone in its way. I found this a few minutes ago...unbelievable

Paloma Vortex (11/8 09:34:00Z): MSLP: 945mb; Inbound Flt. Lvl. Wind (Item F.): 134kts (~154.1mph); Max Flt. Wind (from Remarks): 134kts (~154.1mph)
I still think the NHC messed up on the units of an earlier advisory they said at 10pm yesterday that Paloma was a 115 mph storm I thought it should've been knots

looks like that held tru that they did screw up the units

further more they said some slight strengthening is possible

thats now out the window doesn't look slight to me!!!
1057. aquak9
154 mph flight level? Geez. I know the plane's up higher- but that P3 must be taking a beating.

Godspeed to those on board.
1058. RTLSNK
BahaHurican - Taistelutipu is in North Wales.
current max winds info anyone???? (surface wise)

wouldn't be surprised if they found 145 to 150 at the surface level
Thanks Cotillion and RSK. I had to pull out my AA GB atlas to find Ipswich; I had it confused with Islip for some reason . . . LOL.

Waiting now for 1st Paloma visible of the day:

Quoting BahaHurican:
Thanks Cotillion and RSK. I had to pull out my AA GB atlas to find Ipswich; I had it confused with Islip for some reason . . . LOL.

Waiting now for 1st Paloma visible of the day:



lol.... I am too.
I don't think anyone who isn't a weather junkie or so is even aware of the strength of this "dove"

brb gotta go to do my morning preps
Pressure 962.1 and falling at indicated rate of 16.8 per hour - wind out of N-NE and highest gust 108.4 MPH.
Somewhat rugged out there!
Quoting Hurricane4Lex:
I don't think anyone who isn't a weather junkie or so is even aware of the strength of this "dove"

lol you knew that Paloma meant dove.
right now brac is getting hammered winds are consistently around 80 -90 and have reported gusts in last last few minutes of 103 & 105, max was 108, Winds from the N and pressure is around 960.....eeeeeesshhhh
aquak9

ref 1032 .What a great link that is

Good luck to the Caymans
1067. aquak9
re-post

real time conditions

better get some rolaids

Link
Quoting Bobbyweather:

lol you knew that Paloma meant dove.


yup

also even if I didn't people were saying that all day yesterday too

PS to everyone brb gotta do my moring prep b4 the sun rises
1069. aquak9
tropicaldan- that link came from Rainman32, not me. He's a good hubby.
aquak, yes that is a great link, thanks!!
Quoting 954FtLCane:
right now brac is getting hammered winds are consistently around 80 -90 and have reported gusts in last last few minutes of 103 & 105, max was 108, Winds from the N and pressure is around 960.....eeeeeesshhhh


My victorian house (little 2 bedroom thing) from 1898 would not take the 80mph winds as gusts....
Cuba radar

Radar shows the strong eyewall right on top of Cayman Brac. The weather station has the max gust up to 111 mph now... and this is in the northern eyewall, the weaker side.
Quoting Hurricane4Lex:
I don't think anyone who isn't a weather junkie or so is even aware of the strength of this "dove"
Paloma strengthens to Category 4, heads toward Cuba

(CNN) -- Hurricane Paloma intensified early Saturday to become an "extremely dangerous" Category 4 storm, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida.

Strong winds signal the arrival of Hurricane Paloma in George Town, Grand Cayman.

Shortly before 5 a.m. ET, a U.S. Air Force Reserve aircraft measured winds of 135 miles an hour (215 kph), the center said.

Winds howled at up to 120 miles per hour (195 kph) as the storm struck the Cayman Islands, raising fears of damaged buildings and flooded streets.
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL172008
A. 08/11:11:50Z
B. 19 deg 36 min N
079 deg 49 min W
C. NA mb 2636 m
D. 128 kt
E. 240 deg 007 nm
F. 344 deg 112 kt
G. 244 deg 009 nm
H. EXTRAP 939 mb
I. 7 C/ 3049 m
J. 22 C/ 3047 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. CO18-32
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0617A PALOMA OB 25
MAX FL WIND 134 KT NW QUAD 09:35:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
000
WTNT32 KNHC 081148
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PALOMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
700 AM EST SAT NOV 08 2008

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS PALOMA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
SANCTI SPIRITUS... CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY AND LAS TUNAS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCE OF GRANMA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF HOLGUIN AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN
SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PALOMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 AM EST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF
CAYMAN BRAC. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 110 MILES...175 KM...
EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 165 MILES...265 KM...
SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM LITTLE
CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC THIS MORNING...AND BE APPROACHING THE COAST
OF CENTRAL CUBA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...225
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PALOMA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...WITH WEAKENING
EXPECTED LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED FROM RECENT HURRICANE
HUNTER DATA IS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF PALOMA IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER OF PALOMA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA.

PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE
RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
JAMAICA.

REPEATING THE 700 AM EST POSITION...19.7 N...79.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Ipswich,... I do have to say that my little house is a fortress and the walls would be able to withstand higher winds....but my windows.....no way.
Quoting Hawkeyewx:
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL172008
A. 08/11:11:50Z
B. 19 deg 36 min N
079 deg 49 min W
C. NA mb 2636 m
D. 128 kt
E. 240 deg 007 nm
F. 344 deg 112 kt
G. 244 deg 009 nm
H. EXTRAP 939 mb
I. 7 C/ 3049 m
J. 22 C/ 3047 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. CO18-32
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0617A PALOMA OB 25
MAX FL WIND 134 KT NW QUAD 09:35:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB


Shes intensified alot... sustained winds up to 140mph

000
WTNT32 KNHC 081148
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PALOMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
700 AM EST SAT NOV 08 2008

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS PALOMA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
SANCTI SPIRITUS... CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY AND LAS TUNAS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCE OF GRANMA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF HOLGUIN AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN
SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PALOMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 AM EST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF
CAYMAN BRAC. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 110 MILES...175 KM...
EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 165 MILES...265 KM...
SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM LITTLE
CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC THIS MORNING...AND BE APPROACHING THE COAST
OF CENTRAL CUBA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...225
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PALOMA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...WITH WEAKENING
EXPECTED LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED FROM RECENT HURRICANE
HUNTER DATA IS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF PALOMA IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER OF PALOMA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA.

PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE
RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
JAMAICA.

REPEATING THE 700 AM EST POSITION...19.7 N...79.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

I stand corrected by baha but it's still it's the morn so people must have just woke up to this

also 128 knots! that's ~147 mph and still strengthening!

PS LOL I RealLY need to start those morn preps but so much can happen while one's away
Quoting 954FtLCane:
Ipswich,... I do have to say that my little house is a fortress and the walls would be able to withstand higher winds....but my windows.....no way.


lol... I have double glazing but if you lean on it... you can feel it bend.
Holy cow, 140 MPH? EXTREMELY strong hurricane, in November too.
Quoting Hurricane4Lex:
I stand corrected by baha but it's still it's the morn so people must have just woke up to this

also 128 knots! that's ~147 mph and still strengthening!

PS LOL I RealLY need to start those morn preps but so much can happen while one's away


Yep... I have a feeling that the NHc will have 150 mph winds next advisory.

10mph in 3 hours.
Also.. pressure is reaching Felix str....
First Visible
Cuba can't get rid of these storms
sorry for those in the Caymans
I think Paloma will retire
1086. aquak9
ipswich...Felix was a demon...don't even mention his name while we got P3's in Paloma.
Quoting Hurricane4Lex:
I stand corrected by baha but it's still it's the morn so people must have just woke up to this

also 128 knots! that's ~147 mph and still strengthening!

PS LOL I RealLY need to start those morn preps but so much can happen while one's away
Yeah, it's not that there's no news out about it. I think u are right to imply that it just seems so unlikely that people aren't even thinking about the possibility of a storm like Paloma being out there after the first week in November.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Yeah, it's not that there's no news out about it. I think u are right to imply that it just seems so unlikely that people aren't even thinking about the possibility of a storm like Paloma being out there after the first week in November.


Nothing over in Britan... FOX news is insulting mother nature by covering the election when lives are being lost.
Quoting aquak9:
ipswich...Felix was a demon...don't even mention his name while we got P3's in Paloma.


Sorry...
147 and strengthening! this could easily be a cat 5
1092. RTLSNK
1081 - CybrTeddy - Morning, are you feeling any better?
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 NOV 2008 Time : 104500 UTC
Lat : 19:38:01 N Lon : 79:46:25 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 930.8mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.7 6.8 6.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.4mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : +15.3C Cloud Region Temp : -70.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************
I think the models are calling for Paloma to dissipate withing 72-96, but they're also send it all over the place... can anyone explain why & why... now I know & hope the shear will cause it to dissipate but why are all of the models varying so much on the movement?
At the moment Paloma should be a Catagory 2... it isn't.
1096. aquak9
no prob, ipswich. I stayed up all night with Felix, scared the bejeebers outta me.

Watching sustained hang between 80-100 at that link. It hurts to watch.
Hmmm. . . does that look like a stadium eye to u guys?

And I dunno if FOX has recovered from the political bug yet. Looks like CNN has; they also have a story about a school collapse in Haiti. If Paloma jogs that way enough for them to get any serious rain, it would be even more of a disaster for Haiti.
Quoting all4hurricanes:
147 and strengthening! this could easily be a cat 5


I think it is....

Cayman Brac getting 90mph sustained... My house... well I wouldn't have a house if it was subjected to that.
http://www.neoc.gov.ky/CYB/index.html
Quoting BahaHurican:
Yeah, it's not that there's no news out about it. I think u are right to imply that it just seems so unlikely that people aren't even thinking about the possibility of a storm like Paloma being out there after the first week in November.
I admit this is the first year Ive followed the season all the way through and its been insane so far. We evacuated for Gus on daughter in laws birthday, Spent hubby's and sons birthday in motel hiding from IKE. I would never have believed I'd spend my birthday watching a storm such as this. Incredible.
I don't think there will be much left of cuba at the rate the seasons going... A potential cat 5 in gustav... a cat 4 in Ike and a cat 4 or 5 in Paloma.
With the current track the Worst case is for Paloma to become annular...... and it would hit florida.
1102. aquak9
At least this isn't Haiti- there'd be nothing left. Literally.
Quoting homelesswanderer:
I admit this is the first year Ive followed the season all the way through and its been insane so far. We evacuated for Gus on daughter in laws birthday, Spent hubby's and sons birthday in motel hiding from IKE. I would never have believed I'd spend my birthday watching a storm such as this. Incredible.


poor you....
Quoting aquak9:
At least this isn't Haiti- there'd be nothing left. Literally.


There is nothing left of Haiti
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


I think it is....

Cayman Brac getting 90mph sustained... My house... well I wouldn't have a house if it was subjected to that.
http://www.neoc.gov.ky/CYB/index.html

Ow you should move up here to VA all we ever got was Isabel
I'll be back in a bit.... I have Lunch...
1107. KRL
Video Footage of Paloma Hitting The Caymans

HurricaneVideo.com
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 11:44Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 17L in 2008
Storm Name: Paloma (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 25
A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 11:11:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°36'N 79°49'W (19.6N 79.8167W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 104 miles (168 km) to the E (79°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,636m (8,648ft) at an unspecified standard level
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 128kts (~ 147.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the WSW (240°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 344° at 112kts (From the NNW at ~ 128.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the WSW (244°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 939mb (27.73 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 7°C (45°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
M. Inner Eye Diameter: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)
M. Outer Eye Diameter: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 134kts (~ 154.2mph) in the northwest quadrant at 9:35:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 700mb

!!!!!!
IpswichWeatherCenter 12:05 PM GMT on November 08, 2008 Hide this comment.
With the current track the Worst case is for Paloma to become annular...... and it would hit florida.

no...no....no.... it's not allowed to, I will shoot that dove down
*grope* *stumble*
Coffee???
...g'Morning ...not sure
CRS
Hmmm. . . winds shifting from NE to N to NNW means . . . storm centre passing to the south of the location, right?
1112. Vero1
000
AXNT20 KNHC 081151
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT NOV 08 2008

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA AT 08/1200 UTC IS NEAR
19.7N 79.6W...OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF CAYMAN BRAC. THIS POSITION
IS ALSO ABOUT 110 MILES/175 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN
AND ABOUT 165 MILES/265 KM SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.
PALOMA IS MOVING NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. PALOMA
IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 22N
BETWEEN 78W AND 81W...FROM CUBA TO CAYMAN BRAC. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS JAMAICA. SOME COMPARATIVELY SMALLER
AREAS OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE REACHING CUBA NOW.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM
CUBA TO 24N BETWEEN 81W AND 82W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE FROM 12N TO JAMAICA BETWEEN 77W AND 80W...AND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN
83W AND 86W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE PALOMA COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
MOVING ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AT THIS TIME.
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 15N69W.
DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
SPINNING AWAY FROM HURRICANE PALOMA MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA
AND PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS...NORTH OF 12N EAST OF 70W. MIDDLE
TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 13N WEST OF 74W...FROM
COLOMBIA TO PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE ITCZ ALONG THE
COLOMBIA COAST FROM 8N TO 10N...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF
9N74W IN COLOMBIA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 68W/69W FROM 16N
TO 22N PASSING ON TOP OF THE EXTREME EASTERN PART OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH.

This is on the verge of a Cat 5
This is a guess but I think the 8am advisory will say 145 unless we already have the 8am adv
Quoting all4hurricanes:
This is a guess but I think the 8am advisory will say 145 unless we already have the 8am adv


Already had it, and I think its more likely that they will go with 150 MPH.
I hate to say it, but I agree with you all, It appears Paloma's jogging for Category 5 Status.
Quoting all4hurricanes:
This is a guess but I think the 8am advisory will say 145 unless we already have the 8am adv


We already do and it is 140 mph although they may issue a special adv upgrading to 150 mph
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:
With the current track the Worst case is for Paloma to become annular...... and it would hit florida.
Doubt Paloma will become annular, though. Conditions don't seem right for it.

I'm more concerned about the potential for Paloma to maintain its strength past Cuba. A cat 1 / border cat 2 meandering through Bahamian waters is a far shake from a dissapating TS . . . and people here aren't expecting too much from Paloma right now. Hopefully the NHC intensity forecast pans out. . .
Hurricane Paloma batters Cayman Islands
Link
Cheers AussieStorm
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hmmm. . . winds shifting from NE to N to NNW means . . . storm centre passing to the south of the location, right?


yep

see Cuba radar:
http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/03Cienfuegos/psjMAXw01a .gif
Still no new image on NASA viewer . . .

Though this is pretty scary all by its own self . . .

They might issue a Special advisory at 9 AM to update the strength. 150 MPH with a pressure of 939 MB.
1123. Max1023
Those concentric eyewalls could be bad news. If paloma mamages to complete the cycle with a larger eyewall with category 4 intensity before the shear hits it, cuba could see a very strong hurricane. Remember Gustav. It strengthened with 20 knots. That means 30 might just be able to keep Paloma in check. The best case scenario is the shear hits in the middle of the cycle, tearing apart the eyewall. Also, there is no wya for a strong system in the bahames. When Paloma hits cube it will shear apart if there is more thna 30 knots of shear. Thats My prediction.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


yep

see Cuba radar:
http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/03Cienfuegos/ps jMAXw01a .gif
The Pilon radar is also giving a very good view of the storm centre.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Still no new image on NASA viewer . . .

Though this is pretty scary all by its own self . . .


Nice cold core
Wow! Cat. 4 with 147 mph winds! We'll probably have a cat. 5 today. If not, because of conservative NHC, it'll be at least a 150 or 155mph winds.
1127. TayTay
The wind shear to the north still isn't hurting this storm. It's probably a cat. 5 storm now.
Quoting Max1023:
Those concentric eyewalls could be bad news. .
Concentric eyewalls? More on this please?
Full visible now:

what are the odds of this thing becoming a 5???

...looks like some very serious surge ahead for Golfo de Canyaba & Manzanillo, Cuba.
That bay will trap & funnel the surge.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:

...looks like some very serious surge ahead for Golfo de Canyaba & Manzanillo, Cuba.
That bay will trap & funnel the surge.
I was thinking the same thing. Yet another bad blow in the works for Cuba . . .
Cayman Brac CYB airport now shows Bar. rising
http://www.neoc.gov.ky/CYB/index.html
storm moving away. thats why pressure is rising
Looks like the CDO is moving into our area (N side Cuba) now. That lurking movement on Tueday / Wednesday is now starting to feel rather ominous . . .
Is that a hot tower developing on the west eyewall

if it is we could go through more RI this morning
1137. RyanCRG
Incredible storm, I'm busy posting updates to some other sites right now. Have to get sleep soon, I will be back here tonight to put my 2 cents in. Models look like a 4 year old took over, frustrating! Stay safe in Cuba and Caymans!
Winds look like they are down from the 75+mph sustained we were seeing earlier .. . .
blog hole?
Quoting cycloone:
what are the odds of this thing becoming a 5???
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.7N LONCUR = 79.6W DIRCUR = 50DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 18.9N LONM12 = 81.1W DIRM12 = 43DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 18.0N LONM24 = 81.6W
WNDCUR = 120KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 100KT
CENPRS = 943MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 90NM
holy crap, last time i checked this thing was a bordering cat 2. jjez, what does this mean for the stength after it gets away from cuba? and can anything strengthen out there because of the shear?
1143. XL
Morning from Grand Cayman.
No damage at my place save for a few banana trees. I'm sure there will be more elsewhere on the island.
My thoughts are with those on the sister islands
Bobby thats old.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Bobby thats old.

No it's not. It's dated 1236 UTC SAT NOV 8 2008
1146. miken62
what is annular mean?????

Quoting Bobbyweather:

No it's not. It's dated 1236 UTC SAT NOV 8 2008


I know, but some reason thats been messing up. Yesterday it put it at 65 kts but at the next advisory it was upped to 80 MPH, and its been the case since.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I know, but some reason thats been messing up. Yesterday it put it at 65 kts but at the next advisory it was upped to 80 MPH, and its been the case since.

This is the intensity for 1200 UTC, not 1500.
1149. miken62
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:
With the current track the Worst case is for Paloma to become annular...... and it would hit florida.
....................

please explain ..thnx in advance
Im back from my morn preps what did I miss?
you missed the storm bombing out to a cat 4 borderline Cat 5

Quoting XL:
Morning from Grand Cayman.
No damage at my place save for a few banana trees. I'm sure there will be more elsewhere on the island.
My thoughts are with those on the sister islands

Good morning, XL
It is heartening to hear that you weathered the dove so well.
Banana pudding for desert tonight?
Miken I had the same question myself and found this out... just remember a lot of members on this site do not like to take the time to answer questions they feel are amatuerish...I myself am an amateur and have realized this on this site...anyways here you go

The tell-tale sign of an annular hurricane is that the convection is uniform, making a perfect circle, i.e. there are no spiraling bands, just a donut.
well hate to say it and also people who sided with me will probably hate me too for saying it but.....

we need to consider a min cane hitting Florida as a possible scenario
no hurricanelex no.... what makes you believe this?
Wow!!
Wondering when the models might start showing agreement. What is it that has them so confused?
Quoting 954FtLCane:
no hurricanelex no.... what makes you believe this?


her strength... never thought she'd be cat 4/5

shear will have nothing on her and the mountains will drop her 2 cats
ftlcane, dont be stupid, theres a cat 4 about to hit cuba, there is a very good chance to hit florida. dont be ignorant just because you live there
I have never understood this

some storms they will have 3 or 4 flights in the system at the same time

and then there are storms like this when we need a plane in there there isn't one
hurricanelex..after desk head banging, bleeding and yelling not a florida storm? JK! Heck I live is south dade..trust me, do NOT want nothing in our sights. Why the change of mind?
Quoting foggymyst:
hurricanelex..after desk head banging, bleeding and yelling not a florida storm? JK! Heck I live is south dade..trust me, do NOT want nothing in our sights. Why the change of mind?


Strength... was planning on only a strong cat 3 when I said that

apparently she had other plans...

but for the record...

a possible scenario out of many
Paloma continues steadily on her expected ene track this morning......from here causing major damage in C's little sisters and devestating storm surge in southeast Cuba. However, Paloma is about to get shredded apart by windshear starting early this afternoon, and once she emerges (if she makes it) on the northern side of Cuba, should be just a low level swirl with the convection torn off the top of the storm and racing east of Bermuda. This low level swirl should meandor west with no winds and very little in the way of precip, the GOM is a very hostile place for the forseeable future, there is now chance of Paloma hitting fl as a hurricane, just a low level cloud swirl with some refreshing 20 kt breezes.
paloma has a mind of her own. We never thought she would make it to a cat 4. Everyone was very possitive shear would have taken care of her.

The area she is to enter cuba, are there many high mountains?
kingfan104...don't ever answer to someones comment by calling them stupid....there that stated.... everything I have seen with the models on this storm has led me to believe that this storm will be ripped apart by shear within 72-96 so that's the reason I asked Hurricanelex why he thought that FL would be affected by a Cat1
and it never once crossed your idiocticmind that it was never forecasted to be this strong
I here you hurricanelex..thanks. No matter where, a hurricane is very scary and the only wishcasting should be for mircles of safety and lessen destruction.
Quoting foggymyst:
paloma has a mind of her own. We never thought she would make it to a cat 4. Everyone was very possitive shear would have taken care of her.

The area she is to enter cuba, are there many high mountains?


yes but I dont see her dropping more than 2 or 3 cats thats from those
Very impressive Stadium effect on the storm.
I'm saying Paloma has a 70-80% chance of being a category 5. It only has 9mph more winds to go (or 12 because of the NHC).
queensfan104... just asking, wanting to find logic... we can't predict how much storms will intensify when conditions are good but when conditions will be bad why make a statement that FL will be hot with a possible Cat 1.... bonehead
right..impressive and dangerous storm. Could the storm back track into cuba? I think anything is possible with her now.
Pressure rising and Wind Speeds falling on Cayman Brac.
Unconfirmed reports that roof of major Hurricane Shelter has blown off - but I need to confirm that.
Somewhat curious - why all the bickering about Cat 4/Cat 5 - when u are in it, the difference is somewhat academic!!
because it is possible idiot. my god you are stupid.
Quoting foggymyst:
right..impressive and dangerous storm. Could the storm back track into cuba? I think anything is possible with her now.


that's also a possible scenario too

if she did that...

good news for FL bad for Cuba
I guess it just a wait and see until the storms clears cuba.
Quoting kingzfan104:
because it is possible idiot. my god you are stupid.


PLEASE KEEP THIS BLOG CIVIL!
do you guys listen to what you say? my goodness you people are such losers
1179. chrisrw
Quoting SSideBrac:
Pressure rising and Wind Speeds falling on Cayman Brac.
Unconfirmed reports that roof of major Hurricane Shelter has blown off - but I need to confirm that.
Somewhat curious - why all the bickering about Cat 4/Cat 5 - when u are in it, the difference is somewhat academic!!


Probably because the children don't have to go to school today! All the best to all of you in the Caymans.
Quoting foggymyst:
I guess it just a wait and see until the storms clears cuba.


pretty much Paloma is the icing and cherry on top for the season of 08's cake
Quoting noreaster09:
Paloma continues steadily on her expected ene track this morning......from here causing major damage in C's little sisters and devestating storm surge in southeast Cuba. However, Paloma is about to get shredded apart by windshear starting early this afternoon, and once she emerges (if she makes it) on the northern side of Cuba, should be just a low level swirl with the convection torn off the top of the storm and racing east of Bermuda. This low level swirl should meandor west with no winds and very little in the way of precip, the GOM is a very hostile place for the forseeable future, there is now chance of Paloma hitting fl as a hurricane, just a low level cloud swirl with some refreshing 20 kt breezes.
Yesterday, I might have believed that. Today, not so much. I remember Michelle.
Kingzfan, you already got banned twice already.

please keep your cool and relax
kingzfan104... there is also a .0000239 possibility that we will be hit by a meteor in the next 100 years.. thanks for the warnings though.. being in SE FL I always make sure to have everything I need for a Cat 1.. you know a rake and such
Morning...

First, has anyone heard from kman? Hope all is okay with all of our friends there.

Second, IMO, I don't think the CMC has been smoking too much crack as it has in other years. Don't like the way their model looks. They seem to have put down the crack pipe this year.



are you retarded, a meteor is much different that a hurricane hitting florida especially considering it being a cat 4/5 already. my god are you a fucing retard
what are the odds of this thing becoming a 5???
For some reason, the night really does display rapid intensification of hurricanes. I've woken up early in the morning to Wilma, Ike, and now Paloma.
Thanks to all the people not quoting kingsfan. The rest of us really appreciate not having to read his comments.

BTW, futmet, what's ur take on the intensity forecast for Paloma after Sunday? I'm not so sure we will see only a TS emerging on the other side of Cuba. . . .
This is at extreme odds with anyone's scenario LOL

Link
I haven't looked in here for a while, but it looks as if the juveniles have taken over the school. The level of discussion has dumbed down considerably.
1191. miken62
Hey 954FtLcane....

thnx for the info ...I mostly read the stuff on here and find most of it rather amusing ..I agree...lot's of people don't answer ??'s ...and too many people start talking about a storm hitting here or there many days in advance and most of the time; most of them are waaaayyy off...that's why I just wait and see ..
I live in Rhode Island and we obviously have a much shorter window in terms of planning beacause most storms headed this way give you very short notice due to there acceleration.. so I am always ready but make would no moves until 12 hours out or less. so when I hear it's going to this place or that 4 ,5 6, days out I generally just laugh..cause no one knows for sure. ...but back to your original post # 1153.... too many people that think they know too much when really only a few do.. and that is nothing against anyone, but the ones that come on here and take every post seriously should have their head examined!!
1192. TayTay
Quoting nyhurricaneboy:
For some reason, the night really does display rapid intensification of hurricanes. I've woken up early in the morning to Wilma, Ike, and now Paloma.


The sun usually warms the coldest cloud tops and weakens the convection. Most rapid intensification occurs at night because of this. Not always, though.
Quoting foggymyst:
I guess it just a wait and see until the storms clears cuba.
We will have to come to some conclusion today, since the Central Bahamas is already under TS watch. If there is a real chance that hurricane winds could impact the islands, people will need some advance notice. By the time Paloma has crossed Cuba, it will likely be very late for any preps to be made.
Quoting TayTay:


The sun usually warms the coldest cloud tops and weakens the convection. Most rapid intensifaction occurs at night because of this. Not always, though.


Thanks! Good explanation.
This Hurricane looks alot like Emily
Just ignore and report kingzfan, he's a child just wanting attention. AKA Typical troll, surprised he didn't crack and start called people names earlier in the year.
1189. Duh...I should have looked at the radar before I opened my mouth. Blame it on my only working on my first cup of coffee this morning.

I'm going back to bed if I can't open my eyes.



I expect this system to remain a major Hurricane before hitting Cuba. However by sunday, vertical wind shear will increase to marginal levels over it. Thus, it will likely hit as cat 4 or a strong cat 3 at landfall. There is still a chance Paloma will make it to cat 5 status today.

This will go in the record books if it does
1200. hydrus
Does anyone have information on the damage around Little
Cayman or Cayman Brac?
Quoting TayTay:


The sun usually warms the coldest cloud tops and weakens the convection. Most rapid intensifaction occurs at night because of this. Not always, though.


That's also the reason why you get the strongest storms well past midsummer, including Paloma. September/October upper air can be significantly colder than in midsummer.
I definitely think anyone in the bahamas should prepare now no matter what

A cat 5 striking cuba is bound to be a cat2 or 1 in this situation

maybe still a major who knows
Oh my gosh, Cayman Brac is getting hammered! Good thing this storm doesn't have to travel far before encountering the mountainous terrain of Cuba, but that would still mean even more damage. A cat. 5 in November when no other cat. 5s have been confirmed (except maybe Jangmi) in the entire planet would be truly cataclysmic/paroxysmic/apoclyptical. Is this even a La Nina season? Must be that global warming. Original model runs did indeed turn the storm toward Haiti, but luckily that dones't look likely now. Many models sent its remnants, if there's anything left, toward Florida. I think S. Ontario will get its remnants, but we're very windy right now! I never thought this would ever happen, that we'd have an especially strong cat. 4 in November, even the almighty 2005 did not produce such a storm. Anyone who claimed the season was over back on October, you were sorely wrong (no offense). Let's hope that the damage and any deaths stay low, we don't need a cat. 5 hitting land. Let's hope for the best. 2008 will go down in the record books, that's for sure. PS. can you believe that Paloma means "dove" in Spanish?!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Very impressive Stadium effect on the storm.
This caught my eye on the very first partial visible. Paloma is certainly very "pretty" - from the "out" side . . . Glad to see SSide and other Caymanites posting in the blog this a.m. Looks like that Eward motion which kept the eye south of u guys paid off in lower damage. I guess it doesn't hurt that the circulation has stayed pretty small either . . .

Quoting Hurricane4Lex:
This is at extreme odds with anyone's scenario LOL

Link


A Florida landfall is certainly not out of the question.

I do not think it will be a substantial tropical cyclone if does manage to do that.
miken...having head examined right now....lol
1207. TayTay
If Paloma stays a very small size, Florida may be in trouble.
1208. chrisrw
Quoting cycloone:
This Hurricane looks alot like Emily


Don't even THINK that! I went through Emily in Bermuda in 1987 and once was quite enough!
1209. miken62
I know a good pyshce doc in Providence...LOL
I've talked to several Cayman Brackers and they confirm that several places including shelters, are destroyed - lots of roof damage etc...no word from Little Cayman. Today is anniversary of 1932 hurricane that decimated Cayman Brac :(
I say lets crush the record and go for 6 straight months of Majors in December...... not.... can you imagine me telling my grandchildren about the Turkey day storm of 2008..... hopefully not
we may see that "Light Bulb" grow bigger too in the next advisory

also the letters on it will be changed if this keeps up
Quoting chrisrw:


Don't even THINK that! I went through Emily in Bermuda in 1987 and once was quite enough!


He means the Category 5 Emily in 2005.
Quoting CaymanKira:
I've talked to several Cayman Brackers and they confirm that several places including shelters, are destroyed - lots of roof damage etc...no word from Little Cayman. Today is anniversary of 1932 hurricane that decimated Cayman Brac :(


hate when that happens (coincidences) ... it's just sad...

hope alls well in LC and CB
1215. chrisrw
Quoting CybrTeddy:


He means the Category 5 Emily in 2005.


Thanks Teddy. That's OK then........I think!
Is there still a recon out? Are they done?

Category 5 paloma will probably be here soon.
Quoting hydrus:
Does anyone have information on the damage around Little
Cayman or Cayman Brac?

Trying to get it for the Brac. Allegedely Aston Rutty Centre (Hurricane Shelter on the Bluff)Roof blew off and I do have reports of other significant roof damage + I can see a lot of roof parts lying in the street right now - getting stuff out of Little Cayman may be more difficult - same goes for South Side Brac until people can get along roads safely. Soem comms still good (just had Cell call from NYC), still online in office and standby Genset working well!
Will update as & when I can
Is there a recon out there?
Quoting yonzabam:
I haven't looked in here for a while, but it looks as if the juveniles have taken over the school. The level of discussion has dumbed down considerably.
And u are contributing to the higher level of discussion. . . how?

Recent WV image showing Paloma and the approaching front. Paloma is strong, but understanding context is critical to understanding steering.

I believe Paloma will have maximum sustained winds of 145~160 mph...most certainly stronger than 7am intermediate advisory.
Quoting TayTay:
If Paloma stays a very small size, Florida may be in trouble.


On the contrary, a small magnitude increases its vulnerability to wind shear, and dissipation over land.
no there is no recon in the storm although I have no idea why not there should be one in there all the time
Quoting yonzabam:
I haven't looked in here for a while, but it looks as if the juveniles have taken over the school. The level of discussion has dumbed down considerably.


yonzabam where you been buddy? I have not seen you in here in ages. What can you add today?
Quoting CaymanKira:
I've talked to several Cayman Brackers and they confirm that several places including shelters, are destroyed - lots of roof damage etc...no word from Little Cayman. Today is anniversary of 1932 hurricane that decimated Cayman Brac :(

32 Storm date is something I, and most other Brackers have been aware of for many days - but I think thsat everyone avoided even mnetioning it as Paloma started to gather herself up to pummell the Cayman Islands - I am sure that the tragedy of 32 has nt been repeated however.
lol... it's the economy...we can't afford recon
1226. TayTay
Quoting futuremet:


On the contrary, a small magnitude increases its vulnerability to wind shear, and dissipation over land.


They're also the most underestimated, fastest to organise and can avoid being picked up by this front. Small, powerful storms like this one tend to be tricky to forecast.
I'm siding with a 153 to 157 mph find
Quoting Hurricane4Lex:
I definitely think anyone in the bahamas should prepare now no matter what

A cat 5 striking cuba is bound to be a cat2 or 1 in this situation

maybe still a major who knows
lex, we rarely get a major here after a Cuban crossing, but as Hurricane Lili 1997 indicates, storms can strengthen when crossing the central Bahamas.



I don't really expect that with Paloma. However, the possibility is still out there, and when a storm sits around in one general area for a day or two it can be very good or very bad . . .
1229. miken62
Wait til Obama takes over they'll be using rubberband propelled planes ....LOL..
1230. TayTay
Quoting 954FtLCane:
lol... it's the economy...we can't afford recon


More like it's not a major threat to the States.
Wow, didn't expect this. Paloma certainly is like Michelle, then.

Guess we might get the first category 5 of 2008 after all, but I doubt we will at this point.
1232. miken62
Lili was October ..less hostile enviroment
Quoting Hurricane4Lex:
I'm siding with a 153 to 157 mph find



well lets look at this

Recon had it at 147 mph and at the rate of intensification of 4 mph every half hour that would be 4 1/2 hours which would put winds around

163

now we know that it is not possible for a storm to continue to RI at this strength as there really is not much higher to go to

I would say we have a 160 to 165 mph storm right now


About Pressure

Pressure was dropping 5 mb per half hour at that current drop it would be a wopping 910 mph storm


I would say we have around 915 to 925 for the pressure
\


NOTE This is just using math it does not take into account the fact that it probably would not keep intensifying at the same rate
Quoting CaymanKira:
I've talked to several Cayman Brackers and they confirm that several places including shelters, are destroyed - lots of roof damage etc...no word from Little Cayman. Today is anniversary of 1932 hurricane that decimated Cayman Brac :(
We were talking about that storm yesterday. Reanalysis is considering making that a cat 5, so having Paloma on the same date is rather eerie.

I hope the damage is limited to destroyed roofs and doesn't include any loss of life there. Someone was talking about two large vessels in distress between the Caymans yesterday. Was there anything to that story?
Glad to see u are ok, Kira, BTW . . .
Quoting CaymanKira:
I've talked to several Cayman Brackers and they confirm that several places including shelters, are destroyed - lots of roof damage etc...no word from Little Cayman. Today is anniversary of 1932 hurricane that decimated Cayman Brac :(
Fire Service in Little Cayman said severe damage to homes but the people who chosr to stay are all fine so far
Well if anything just have the thought of her as a cat 5 towards Cuba cause I'm fully aware now that this has been a strange year

guess taking those sept and oct breaks made me lose something other than money (like memories of the other ones this year) LOL
Left yesterday with a Cat 1, now a borderline 5. The storm looks impresive with that eye looking at us. Hope everyone in the Caymans made out okay. Little Cayman is geting hamered hard right now by the looks of it. Everyone in the path stay safe.
SSideBrac-Hope you made it through all right. East End was rough last night but not as bad as over there. Hope all people are ok because buildings can be replaced but not lives.
Quoting LostTomorrows:
Wow, didn't expect this. Paloma certainly is like Michelle, then.

Guess we might get the first category 5 of 2008 after all, but I doubt we will at this point.
I think Michelle had a larger hurricane radius than Paloma does right now. futuremet does have a point about the small size of the circulation. Also Michelle crossed further west; Paloma's more easterly crossing might increase the amount of interference from mountains.

But we shall see, shan't we?
Bahahurican I hope we dont have a Lili that did a lot of damage down here.
will be back in an hour!

Quoting a horror movie I saw this Halloween:

(laughs) It's breakfast time!!!
Quoting bahamacast:
Bahahurican I hope we dont have a Lili that did a lot of damage down here.
Even getting a Michelle like experience has the potential to be bad if u guys get the right front quadrant. Michelle rained copiously here, and we were on the "soft" side. . . .
Recon found 939 Pressure, 147 MPH winds according to the old Vortex, likely stronger by now. That was about 2 hours ago.
thanks cchs great post.... It reiterates my thoughts...just continuing to pray for the caymans and hoping it looses strength before it hits Cuba (where my folks are from)
I updated my blog late yesterday evening and its still very current as all the graphics update as things change if anyone would like to review....

TampaSpins Tropical Update Link
At least one of the models, the one closest to the XTRAP, or current movement, is forecasting Paloma (or what's left of her) to cross Acklins / Crooked Island.
Quoting TampaSpin:
I updated my blog late yesterday evening and its still very current as all the graphics update as things change if anyone would like to review....

TampaSpins Tropical Update Link
Hey, Tampa. Did u include potential cat 5 in your blog comments? It still seems possible before Cuban landfall this evening (though I wouldn't say probable).
Dr. Lyons said that Paloma may cross Cuba and just weaken as it sits (stalls) off the north coast of Cuba.
Noel gave us three feet of rain shut the island down for three weeks or more.
1252. hydrus
SSIDEBRAC-Thank you for the update,if you hear or see anything more please post if possible.
A photo of Nassau weather about one hour ago.



I'll try to do another tomorrow and also on Monday, depending on what the weather is like then . . .
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, Tampa. Did u include potential cat 5 in your blog comments? It still seems possible before Cuban landfall this evening (though I wouldn't say probable).


It should weaken some before crossing Cuba......lets hope...Shear is getting stronger the further north it moves.
Wow...the hurricane's higher cloud tops resemble a pinwheel...
Quoting bahamacast:
Noel gave us three feet of rain shut the island down for three weeks or more.
That's my other fear from Paloma. If it just sits over us and RAINS, that may be worse than if it's a big bad 'cane that keeps on moving.

It's sure to be a nailbiter . . . :o)
Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site (New Format)
Is Recon in Paloma right now?
Well, I've got to run, ya'll. See u later in the p.m.
Quoting nyhurricaneboy:
Is Recon in Paloma right now?


Its just leaving, not sure when the next one is due
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Photobucket


i love when you do these!!! I can understand everything so much better. This graphic shows that it's impossible for the storm to head towards Florida, correct?
Quoting Orcasystems:


Its just leaving, not sure when the next one is due


Thanks!
Tampa - love your blog - always check it out - the simple terms is great for folks like me who start to see "blah blah blah blah" when it's too complicated.

Appreciate all your work.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Its just leaving, not sure when the next one is due


no it has been gone for a while like 2 hours

Pilon & Camaquey radars show the storm pretty well.

Link
There is a "WX" Flight leaving Tampa right now, not sure what that designation means?

Its a different designation then the normal HH flights
1267. WxLogic
New HHunter underway (Non-Tasked Mission).

UTC Clock Version 2 will be released shortly... ensuring no more bugs are found. :P This one has a lot more useful goodies.
1268. hydrus
TAMPA SPIN-I agree with MELWERLE,exellent website with good information.
1269. surfmom
1237 - Good Morning CCHS! Thank you for your map!!!! always good to have those graphics from YOU!
Quoting nyhurricaneboy:
Is Recon in Paloma right now?

A Recon plane just left Tampa. Mission WX is what it is called. I am not sure if they will go into the cane or just take reading in front of the path.
Quoting lawntonlookers:

A Recon plane just left Tampa. Mission WX is what it is called. I am not sure if they will go into the cane or just take reading in front of the path.


1272. surfmom
CCHS - I really, really appreciate your work... helps to teach my eyes how to "read" the pics.
This 10am advisory will be interesting.
1275. surfmom
Quoting melwerle:
Tampa - love your blog - always check it out - the simple terms is great for folks like me who start to see "blah blah blah blah" when it's too complicated.

Appreciate all your work.
I thought I was the only one who went into "buzzzzzhummmmmm" when it gets techno LOL
I checked the RECON and this is what it says. "the most training missions simply have "WX" following the aircraft tail number".
Ouch....

1278. WxLogic
Quoting lawntonlookers:
I checked the RECON and this is what it says. "the most training missions simply have "WX" following the aircraft tail number".


Hehe... will be intereting if indeed they're actually training new recruits... or "training" new WX instruments.
are we sure this thing is going to rapidly disapate as fast as it increased yesterday?
Quoting futuremet:
Terrible model consensus




Click to enlarge
I never would have thought that 93L would become this a few days later.
great update tampa-thankyou
If Paloma does the same thing Michelle does, we might have anothere retired name this year, and first retired "p" storm.
TCHP:
I wish advisories could come out faster...I have to sleep now it's almost midnight here.
10AM advisory will likely have winds at either 125kts or 130kts. 125kts would be the more conservative way to go, however 130kts would be reasonable as well because the rapid pressure falls we saw with recon likely led to some additional strengthening since then.
1287. IKE
Looks like Paloma may have peaked out and may start to weaken soon..Link
1288. afj3
Greetings to all. Quick question. Is Paloma (or its eventual remnants) going to bring some weather to South Florida?
Im afraid of the 10 AM Advisory.
Weird...Haiti and Jamaica and Florida are in the 5-day cone.
Good Morning Passengers of Pamola flight 17L... We have just leveled off at our crusing altitude of 140. We expect a nice flight today and we will be beginging our decent into cuba later this afternoon...

Quoting Bobbyweather:
I wish advisories could come out faster...I have to sleep now it's almost midnight here.


Almost midnight? I just now woke up and you're
already getting ready for the next day? the joy
of timezones.

Anyway if this becomes a cat 5 would it be the
first cat 5 in november? Could it become retired?
Although I doubt anymore intensification will occur behind this, while I won't rule anymore out, its doubtful. This is because the last vortex message reported concentric eyewalls, which we will probably begin seeing more on satellite images in a matter of hours. This might help Paloma weaken even more than expected before hitting Cuba. At least we can hope so anyway.
1294. afj3
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Weird...Haiti and Jamaica and Florida are in the 5-day cone.


That was my question. If Florida is in the five-day cone what's going to happen?
Quoting IKE:
Looks like Paloma may have peaked out and may start to weaken soon..Link


I agree...I believe Paloma has peaked or will peak very shortly. A continued increase in shear and concentric eyewalls should cause weakening shortly.
NHC is probably deciding which maximum sustained winds to use.
Quoting afj3:


That was my question. If Florida is in the five-day cone what's going to happen?

If it does hit Florida, it will likely only be a remnant low and not be too strong.
A Air Force HH is en-route over the GOM right now and is labeled at Pamola Mission 07
145 I would guess... They wouldn't call it a 5 unless it was a 5..
My guess is 145 or 150 mph winds.
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
My guess is 145 or 150 mph winds.

That's about right.
Quoting weathersp:
A Air Force HH is en-route over the GOM right now and is labeled at Pamola Mission 07


Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site (New Format)

Two HH enroute

They still keep it 140.
I don't like NHC, they kept it at 140 mph!!
REPEATING THE 1000 AM EST POSITION...19.9 N...79.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB.
AT 1000 AM EST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...
210 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 140 MILES...220 KM
...SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AFTER LANDFALL. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM CAYMAN BRAC THIS
MORNING...AND BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL CUBA LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PALOMA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR
HURRICANE UP UNTIL LANDFALL IN CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.
Discussion is out as well.
Typical conservative National Hurricane Center.
No change. WT?
They can't deny that it strengthened since the
last advisory, can they?
According to the discussion it might have been stronger a few hours ago than 140. another thing for PSA to go over I guess.
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
Typical conservative National Hurricane Center.
No change. WT?


I could be mistaken.. but I assume with all of the information they have available to them. They may actually have a better handle on it then you do. Not to mention, no statistical facts to support upgrading it.. other then a hunch
Hmm...the NHC may have to update it once the new hurricane hunter plane flies in...where can I get the latest info on the HH's?
New Forecast track as ts,
makes switch-back turn to West
before reaching Exuma, Bahamas...
CRS
I see S FL is in the long term cone now since last night. In terms of strength, I don't see it being only a remnant low hitting FL. It has built so quickly and has such good structure we could see it survive on it s own when back over water, like we have seen a few storms do this year.

Cuba is not going to take it from a Cat 4/5 to a Depression! I think we are being a little to conservative with strength after Cuba and possibly FL.
1315. Patrap
Hurricane Paloma Short Floater - Funktop Color Infrared Loop Link


Quoting Orcasystems:


I could be mistaken.. but I assume with all of the information they have available to them. They may actually have a better handle on it then you do. Not to mention, no statistical facts to support upgrading it.. other then a hunch


What about the recon that supported 147 mph winds?
1317. Patrap
JSL Tropical Channel-4 Link



HH positions



Click to enlarge
1319. Patrap
GOM ,Caribbean IR Loop Link
1320. IKE
The good news is...there won't be much left of it after it crosses Cuba.

Quoting IKE:
The good news is...there won't be much left of it after it crosses Cuba.


Yes.. if your not Cuban
1322. IKE
Quoting Orcasystems:


Yeah.. if your not Cuban


True.
1323. Patrap
Short Floater - Water Vapor Loop Link

Cuban Radar Link
Quoting Bobbyweather:
I don't like NHC, they kept it at 140 mph!!

NHC doensn't like you either so the feelings are mutual.
Im back from breakfast what did I miss?

PS when's Dr. M's new blog?
Whens the next blog???
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
I see S FL is in the long term cone now since last night. In terms of strength, I don't see it being only a remnant low hitting FL. It has built so quickly and has such good structure we could see it survive on it s own when back over water, like we have seen a few storms do this year.

Cuba is not going to take it from a Cat 4/5 to a Depression! I think we are being a little to conservative with strength after Cuba and possibly FL.


Maybe not, but the combination of land interaction with Cuba, followed by adverse wind shear toppled Gustav's 'chimney' and it dropped from a strong cat 4 to a cat 2. It never regained its strength and made landfall as a cat 2.

I believe the wind shear that will affect Palomo is even stronger. I doubt if it will have an eye when it clears Cuba.
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
I see S FL is in the long term cone now since last night. In terms of strength, I don't see it being only a remnant low hitting FL. It has built so quickly and has such good structure we could see it survive on it s own when back over water, like we have seen a few storms do this year.

Cuba is not going to take it from a Cat 4/5 to a Depression! I think we are being a little to conservative with strength after Cuba and possibly FL.


wind sheer values over FL and in the eastern GOM,will be 30-40kts aleast it will destroy paloma,not the land interaction...
Click to enlarge








1330. kdav
teh combo of cuban mountians and high shear = epic fail for paloma
1327. I agree it won't be no major, but do think it still has the good chance of getting FL as a Hurricane.
Does anyone know how mountainous the area will be that Pal will go over when on Cuba and how long she will be over Cuba?
1333. storm7
Any iformation about Little Cayman and Cayman Brac? They were very near (or inside) the eyewall.

Well I guess Paloma has started its weakening.
1335. IKE
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
1327. I agree it won't be no major, but do think it still has the good chance of getting FL as a Hurricane.


No way.

Chances of it hitting Florida as a cane.....

.000000000001%.
(if ur Floridian I'd keep an eye on it)

like I said a while earlier

we may need to consider the possibility of a min cane hitting Florida

but for the record as well: That is just one of many scenarios

(if ur bahaman)

keep a very close eye on it as well and prepare for the rains or a min cat as well

Another scenario is that it could just stall at or after cuba

(if ur cuban in cuba)

You guys know wats wat
Quoting IKE:


No way.

Chances of it hitting Florida as a cane.....

.000000000001%.


the chances are better of Florida getting snow than Paloma coming here as anything organized.
1338. IKE
Quoting Hurricane4Lex:
(if ur Floridian I'd keep an eye on it)

like I said a while earlier

we may need to consider the possibility of a min cane hitting Florida

but for the record as well: That is just one of many scenarios

(if ur bahaman)

keep a very close eye on it as well and prepare for the rains or a min cat as well

Another scenario is that it could just stall at or after cuba

(if ur cuban in cuba)

You guys know wats wat



The NHC forecast for what's left of Paloma after Cuba....

72HR VT 11/1200Z 22.5N 75.8W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 12/1200Z 23.0N 76.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 13/1200Z 23.0N 77.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
Quoting IKE:


No way.

Chances of it hitting Florida as a cane.....

.000000000001%.


I don 't think FL will see a cane ,but with weather you never know I would say realistically less than a 5% chance of a cane,10% chance of a TS,25% chance of a TD,and about a 75'% chance of a remenent Low w/showers and a couple gusts of wind,Time will tell!!!!
1340. IKE
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


the chances are better of Florida getting snow than Paloma coming here as anything organized.


Exactly.
I think theres a good chance that it will hit florida, but as a depression or remnant low
Since when has a cone been a circle??? I don't get it. I guess it means they have no idea where the dove is headed.
1343. storm7
I think Paloma will touch Cuba as cat 2 or 3.
Quoting kimoskee:
Since when has a cone been a circle??? I don't get it. I guess it means they have no idea where the dove is headed.
Exactly
I just don't want to see FL being told and on the band wagon of a "who cares" attitude its only a little wind and rain and then pooof, here comes Hurr Pal. Things can change.
Rains is a definite tho LOL

that's all I can say for sure LOL

could be bad if ur Bahaman in terms of rains but how's Florida?

last time I was there there was a drought but Fay changed that
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
I just don't want to see FL being told and on the band wagon of a "who cares" attitude its only a little wind and rain and then pooof, here comes Hurr Pal. Things can change.
But believing they are going to change is Wishcasting!
For all those still convinced that South Florida will see an organized tropical cyclone from Paloma, I refer you to the graphic that I had created earlier this morning.

Photobucket
1349. storm7
Is Paloma the strongest hurricane to form so late? Sorry if already answered but is my first time here since typhoon Jangmi.
As soon as it comes off of the Cuban mountains it will be ripped apart by shear, there is almost no chance of it regenerating into a min cane or tropical storm
Good to see the Caymanites checking in - any word from Kman? Thinking of the Cubans today and hoping for the best for you guys, Baha.
In spite of shear and steering flow...looks like a sharp left hook in imagery...
Quoting storm7:
Is Paloma the strongest hurricane to form so late? Sorry if already answered but is my first time here since typhoon Jangmi.
nope Link Lenny was
anyone know if her pressure has leveled off...

if that happens now I'll be convinced that I was right 2 days earlier that Paloma has nothing on Florida

if not then wait and see mode

like I said just considering the scenarios
paloma looks to be moving alomost due east,If some how it stays off cuba,the game will change alot!!!
I leave overnight, and what do I get? A Cat. 4.
Quoting stillwaiting:
paloma looks to be moving alomost due east,If some how it stays off cuba,the game will change alot!!!
Paloma is not moving east Link turn on Lat/Lon and zoom in.
Quoting chessrascal:
Paloma is not moving east Link turn on Lat/Lon and zoom in.


I agree

she has been moving somewhat a hint of east but overall I think she will follow the trac if not then parallel it for now
1359. storm7
Landfall is expected just north of Manzanillo, Guacanayabo gulf may help to increase storm surge, and is a very unusual location/angle of landfall, may be the first time since record keeping began (for that area of Cuba).
Quoting chessrascal:
Paloma is not moving east Link turn on Lat/Lon and zoom in.


I said almost dinkleberry,learn ho da reed...lol
1361. storm7
And thanks for the answer, i was not here during Omar, another interesting and unusual storm.
Quoting IKE:


No way.

Chances of it hitting Florida as a cane.....

.000000000001%.



Ike can you write that percentage in word form? Thank you:)
(sighs) I need a break [actually I need sleep]

rested for a bit but couldn't sleep properly

brb will be interesting to see the recon till then I hope there's a new blog

Quoting sporteguy03:



Ike can you write that percentage in word form? Thank you:)


Yup... Zippo.. zero.. nada
I wonder if they'll find pressure in the 937-939mb range??,the 930's in november,that would be amazing,I think in the last 20-30yrs the season has been starting and ending SLIGHTLY earlier and later,and the end of oct. begining of nov may actually becoming the secondary peak of TC season...
Quoting Orcasystems:


Yup... Zippo.. zero.. nada


LOL
Quoting hurricanealley:


LOL


Thought I would help Ike, he is getting up there in years.. and those are big words... you know how it is.
New blog
1369. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:



Ike can you write that percentage in word form? Thank you:)


LOL.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


What the hell are you talking about? Cat5? Wow POOF**


uh huh i was right and you were 100 per cent wrong to tell me poof, you should be banned for telling people to poof when theyre just given their opinions, it was probably a cat 5 this morning and is probably one now, maybe now youll start respecting opinions instead of poofing people
Weather channel saying that because it loss some of the convention in the last few hours around the COC the NHC delay the call of a TD to 11:00pm