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Paloma forms and steadily intensifies

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:17 PM GMT on November 06, 2008

Tropical Storm Paloma formed last night, and is steadily strengthening. Visible satellite images show a significant increase in organization of the storm is occurring, with low level spiral bands beginning to wrap around the center and upper level outflow expanding on all sides except to the south. Recent microwave images (Figure 1) indicate that Paloma is already starting to build an eyewall.


Figure 1. Microwave image of Paloma at 7:15 am EST Thursday November 6, 2008. A partial eyewall is evident on the southeast side of the center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

The intensity forecast
Wind shear has dropped to a very low 0-5 knots, and is expected to remain very low, 0-5 knots, over the next day. Wind shear will increase to 10-15 knots Friday and Saturday, as the storm heads north, but I don't expect Paloma will stop intensifying until it crosses 20° North Latitude (between the Cayman Islands and Cuba) Saturday night, when the shear will increase to 30-50 knots. Water temperatures are warm, 29°C, and this warm water extends to great depth. These are very favorable conditions for intensification, and Paloma should be a hurricane by Friday. I expect Paloma will be a Category 2 or 3 hurricane when it passes through the Cayman Islands on Saturday. The latest (6Z, 1am EST) of the HWRF model predicts Paloma will pass though the Cayman Islands on Saturday morning as a Category 3 hurricane. The GFDL and SHIPS intensity models are less aggressive, predicting a Category 1 hurricane. I believe a Category 3 hurricane is more likely than a Category 1 hurricane for the Cayman Islands, and Paloma has the potential to imitate Hurricane Michelle of 2001. Michelle formed in the same region at the same time of year, and took just three days to intensify from a tropical depression to a Category 4 hurricane. Michelle made landfall in central Cuba as a Category 4 hurricane, then weakened to a Category 1 hurricane as it passed through the Bahamas. Paloma will likely be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane at landfall in Cuba, and a strong tropical storm with 60-70 mph winds in the Bahamas.

The track forecast
A strong trough of low pressure approaching the U.S. East Coast is pulling Paloma to the north, and this trough should continue to pull the storm northwards and then turn it northeastward by Saturday. Several major models--the NOGAPS, GFS, and ECMWF--predict that Paloma will be torn in two by the wind shear just south of Cuba, with the low level remnants getting forced westward towards the Yucatan Peninsula. This solution seems unlikely, given the fact that Paloma is likely to grow much stronger and more resistant to wind shear than these models are predicting. I expect Paloma will follow the track of the GFDL, HWRF, and GFS models, which show the storm may pass very close to Grand Cayman Island on Saturday, then make landfall in southern Cuba on Sunday and continue on through the central Bahamas.

Links to follow
Wundermap for 16N 83W

I'll have an update this afternoon. A new Hurricane Hunter plane is on its way to Paloma, and should arrive at the center around 1 pm EST.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thx Doc...
Guess we'll see which model(s) suit(s) will reign victorious!!!
Thank you and wow!
Thank You for the update Dr. Masters
Thank you Jeff.
I updated all the HH data on the Blog also
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Those are the other microwave images. Definatley see the eye structure defining itself. Visable shows some shadows but nothing definative just yet


Seems Paloma has an Eye. Its rare for Minimal TS's to have eyes but not unheard of. Josephine, Gustav, Humberto had eye's as TD's or TS's.
Check the latest TMI 85GHz weak satellite image, the eyewall is almost complete. T#'s are at 3.3 and 3.5, 51kts.
CIMMS MIMIC T.S. Paloma Link
11. JRRP
eye ?
@ cyber what you talking about a td have an eye!!! a eyewall structure starting to build in an ts
JRRP its getting there, microwave imagery shows the structure clearly forming
i think its really strengthing now causing the eye hmmmmm
Quoting JRRP:
eye ?


It appears so.
@ JRRP yes an eye paloma have build an eyewall an i think its compl. you can see an eyewall at the microwave
once the central structure defines itself and some banding starts feeding it we will see pretty significant strengthening. I dont think it will be rapid today, maybe tomorrow, due to the effects of land. Once Paloma getts farther away from the coast rapid intensification should occur
Quoting yannik29:
@ cyber what you talking about a td have an eye!!! a eyewall structure starting to build in an ts


Check back to when Gustav was an invest about to be declared, it had an Eye, it actually helps the inner structure of the system, helping it to, rapidly intensify. Gustav and Humberto had it and they rapidly intensified from TD's to Hurricanes in 18 hours.
@ cybr perhaps an eywall future
20. amd
i'm very interested in the next recon observations due to come this afternoon. With the rapid intensification of this system beginning, and its relatively small core, I wouldn't be surprised if they find a 65-70 mph strong tropical storm, and pressures below 990 mb.
Eye should form in the next 6 to 12 hours.
Don't think land is really an issue for Paloma right now.

Taking a step back, very impressive:

Link
Quoting yannik29:
@ cybr perhaps an eywall future


From Gustav discussion:
AN SSM/IS
IMAGE FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO DEPICTED AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE AT THE 91
GHZ FREQUENCY...BUT IT WAS NOT EVIDENT ON THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL.
SINCE THE LATTER CHANNEL IS MORE SENSITIVE TO THE LOWER-LEVELS...
THIS EYE-LIKE FEATURE WAS PRIMARILY ALOFT. INTERESTINGLY
HOWEVER...THE GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES ALSO SHOW A RELATIVELY CLEAR
AREA NEAR THE CENTER THAT RESEMBLES AN EYE. OUR INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 30 KT BASED ON AN EARLIER REPORT


The eye was also visible on Satilite too with TD 7 before it became Gustav.
T. S. Paloma Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop Link
Quoting amd:
i'm very interested in the next recon observations due to come this afternoon. With the rapid intensification of this system beginning, and its relatively small core, I wouldn't be surprised if they find a 65-70 mph strong tropical storm, and pressures below 990 mb.


Recon is up right now
thats what i say above an eyewall future
Quoting weathersp:
Eye should form in the next 6 to 12 hours.


Check Visible, it appears to be forming one,
Exactly Seastep just saying land is inhibiting rapid intesification dont think it can start a feeder band from overland. I could be wrong though
29. JRRP
Quoting Bonedog:
JRRP its getting there, microwave imagery shows the structure clearly forming
Quoting CybrTeddy:


It appears so.

yeah but looks like it has 70mph
Recon nearing the system and finding 37 MPH Winds.
eye clearly forming

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Recon nearing the system and finding 37 MPH Winds.


lets see if the recon find an closed eyewall if this is the fact we will see some heavy intesification
8,043 meters
(~ 26,388 feet) - 422 meters
(~ 1,385 feet) From 258 at 20 knots
(From between the WSW and W at ~ 23.0 mph) -19.7C
(~ -3.5F) -49.0C
(~ -56.2F) 20 knots
(~ 23.0 mph) 33 knots
(~ 37.9 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 33.0 knots (~ 37.9 mph)
Kman, I feel so bad for your islands. I woke up this morning and first thing I see is this incipient storm cranking up with a track right through your neighborhood. I just hope its a fast mover. Hang in there!
Thanks Dr. M (Long Time No See from Me)...I thought you were a little "off" in predicting one more storm about three weeks ago in one of your blogs when looking a pretty hostile conditions in the tropics recently, but, you must have a crystal ball.....Well 17 named storms is a pretty active season in retrospect, and, I certainly hope that Cayman and Cuba are not subjected to a major storm at this point....WW
recon still way up there hopefully in the next hour or so we will get reports about structure :) and some nice SFMR reports.

taking a stab at it at this point..

50mph 990mb
no eye on visable yet. knew that was a shadow ;)

Finding TS Winds now.
the Nor'Easter looking better and better as the day wears on. Just had a rain band move through, now back to drizzle. Winds are light though, thankfully

Hey all.

I see we have Paloma, once again those professing the end of the season are proved wrong...

Going to be an interesting one.
11am update the winds are up to 45 mph with pressure at 998 mb
cybr the are at 8000 meters not at the surface
Quoting btwntx08:
11am update the winds are up to 45 mph with pressure at 998 mb


Thats been out for an hour and a half, its EST time now, that came out at 10 AM.
Quoting yannik29:
cybr the are at 8000 meters not at the surface


They use the SMFR to calculate the winds at the surface from what they are getting in the air. Those are surface winds.
That is quite an impressive Nor'easter Bone.

Is it cold enough to snow up there?
Caymans and Cuba look out! for those of you in Florida you need not to worry about "having a day off" Pal sure has her act together though and I admit that I may be wrong about this season's majors being over she sure has the potential for major status
(crawling from under rock to whisper) no mention of fla. (crawling back under).

No Seastep unfortunatly its in the upper 50s to lower 60s up here.

But if this keeps up going to be a long snowy winter. These systems have been passing by in just the right track to give the NE Corridor blizzards if there was some cold air.
Dos anyone here think Paloma is the "last hurrah" for this hurricane season? Or will we see Rene? I think we might see one more named storm.
Rapid Intensification is not un-common in this part of the world at this time of year.

Remember 2005.
Hope all goes well for the islands.
2005 was a freak year all on it's own though
Not ruling out major status which is why I admit I may and probably will be wrong
Lost I do believe one maybe just maybe two more systems. Still have a long ways to go, 3 weeks offcially, and waters are still warm and the MJO looks to go positive one last time before the offcial end.
Quoting foggymyst:
(crawling from under rock to whisper) no mention of fla. (crawling back under).



lmao!!! good one.
Quoting Hurricane4Lex:
2005 was a freak year all on it's own though


So is this year too, and 2007.
LOL foggy but just saying that the focus is on the caymans and cuba
wxlogic-thanks, i try.
I wouldn't be suprised to see Rene form in December or even later this month. We also might have a Post season storm, and another added in Post Season analyze.
hurricane4lex, I know.. I wish them well.
Recon is now descending.
I said one 'at least'. Hurricane season officially and on average is from June to November, but increasing amount of outliers really suggests from mid May to mid December. A few miles of this super marathon left yet.
Hello everyone.......

Just wanted to stop in and say hello.....Paloma...wow!!!! Looks to be intensifying quickly..Amazing this time of year!
Cybr tell you what if this current Nor'Easter had more convection to it would be one for sure, windfield has a ton of 35knt+ barbs. Bouys showing the same thing and pressures were in the 980s earlier.
me too foggy I was truly hoping that I would be right when I declared "Major Hurricane season" over but it looks increasing possible that im wrong seeing the Doc say that the highest potential could be a cat 4 like michelle makes Pal a serious one
to clarify this will not be 2005 in terms of the number of storms.

2005 was the most freakish season we'll ever see I really dont see us going into the greek alphabet again for quite some time

Jersey getting waves, Ft. Pierce/EC FL is getting waves.... I still be flat ..... The sun is finally out after two days of GRAY! Nice cool temp. made for an excellent morning run... the sunrise was so beautiful, and as I ran on the beach the gulf so sweet. so peaceful -- I couldn't fuss about the lack of waves... all I could see was the paradise of my shores and enjoy what IS.

Candle lit for those in the path of paloma

Crows, 1/2 dozen in the broiler w/feathers -- never thought we'd get another exercise/lesson in Canes this season....maybe the cat will help me eat it.
crow eating time for me too if Pal goes to 3 and it will by the way Pal and her environment look now
hey surfmom. Glad to hear about your great morning.

Yea Jerzy is seeing waves so is LI. favorite breaks here going off!! 8 to 12. LI breaks a little bigger, got a call from a friend out there saying 10 to 14 some 15 sets rolling in. They have it better in this south wind, nice offshores blowing spray :)

In my hayday this would have been a sick day from work LOL now I am content to get phone calls and watch webcams =/
Hey Storm
At work.. so I will update the HH fairly often now.

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how recon btw?
Hi everyone!! Quite surprised to get the email yesterday about TD 13 and now a planned cane. Hope everyone stays dry and safe. Peace..
Quoting Hurricane4Lex:
how recon btw?


42 knots
(~ 48.3 mph)

ah thx Orca
Quoting MTJax:
Hi everyone!! Quite surprised to get the email yesterday about TD 13 and now a planned cane. Hope everyone stays dry and safe. Peace..


Actually it was Tropical Depression 17...And its Paloma now.
its funny surfline calling the sets lower but friends at the beach say they are wrong.

basically friends saying head high to 3+ overhead. kinda dumpy though but rideable. should clean up later today
73Bonedog - thanks for the report... of course those waves are so big...I'd be watching them from the beach as well... but just to read the description... my mind can just see the tubes!!!

That water has got to be cold. colder then the gulf at 68 degrees. I'm sure the photographs will be in ESM....Maybe you could get leftovers on the weekend???? Kinda Cold though
I have seen that often w/the wave height sites....sometimes stating higher.. and other times lower... that's why in the end a personal look see is best.

No cams by my beach, but Stillwaiting's 2nd story new pad has a slot view through the trees & housesout a back window that gives him a perfect view of my spot..... could I get any luckier..... you know I shared my mangos and fresh eggs with him!!!
OH almost totally forgot. Seen the best halloween costume EVER!

Was at my nieces halloween parade, this little girl, maybe 10, has her hair pulled out to one side all crazy, a shear scarf out the same way, and her cloths doing the same. I asked her what she was... ready for this....


a news girl in a hurricane


almost PIMP and died from laughter it was so cute. Have to see if wifey got pictures she had the camera that day.
Hey Storm.....no rest for the weary thx for the update
I bet you did surfmom ;)
49 knots
(~ 56.3 mph)



999.7 mb
(~ 29.52 inHg)
What's the surge potential from a storm like Pal or am I asking to early?
Bonedog that is the BEST!!! Send me the pic if you get them!!!

Polo, POLO -- got to get off and head out to the barns. Got game this afternoon. Weather is perfect for the horses... "ride 'em like you stole 'em weather" LOL Nice to have calm winds and beaming sun.

Hope for a WINDLESS Sunday up in Ocala this weekend. Young Buck just got picked up to play in a Pro game-- want everything to be in his favor....especially since he will be riding another players horses, NO WIND,Nice Temps & Sunshine are on my request sheet to "the powers that be"...... this is a biggy.
Recons finding a 56 MPH TS with pressures in the 990's.
Good afternoon everyone.
Surprised we still have a hurricane left this year. Anyone have an idea where Paloma will go apres Bahamas?
94Hurricane4Lex..... I looked here and I was not happy with what i saw... I'm sure the others may have better sites... But I pulled my Candle out after i saw the projected heights last night. I love my carib. islands

MagicSeaweed.com Click on surfreports (upperleft) then take a look...YIKES!

OK I'm outta here... Good afternoon to you all, going to keep praying Paloma --doesn't stall, moves quick and goes POOF!!!
99. 786
Hello, weather in Cayman still cloudy and grim. Not much preparation has begun here suprisingly, I think people have gotten complacent again as the last two warnings amounted to nothing. This one however looks like it could do some damage. It is a very small cyclone though, TS winds only 34 miles from the center? that is relatively tiny
Quoting 786:
Hello, weather in Cayman still cloudy and grim. Not much preparation has begun here suprisingly, I think people have gotten complacent again as the last two warnings amounted to nothing. This one however looks like it could do some damage. It is a very small cyclone though, TS winds only 34 miles from the center? that is relatively tiny


Small? The TS winds are small becuase its only a 45mph TS.

Ft.pierce has a little swell right know, but I'm sure mid next week will be going off. We will see how the winds are (direction), when the swell starts coming in. Stay safe those of you down south.
ah thx surfmom have a great afternoon too

thx 786 as well for the local update plz keep us tuned in TIA
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Small? The TS winds are small becuase its only a 45mph TS.


Correct and when an inner core is complete the wind field will expand dramatically. With rapid intensification in the wording, this thing can take off quick. Could be double the size and strength 6 hours from now.

Paloma noonish Thursday
996.5 mb
(~ 29.43 inHg)


Also recon found 70mph flight winds....Im gonna take a guess and say at 1pm Paloma will be a 60mph Tropical storm with a 997mb pressure.
surfmom I will send you the pics if the wife took them. I know she shot alot of our neice but have to see if that little girl made it into any of them.
I agree StormW a hurricane late tonight or in the early morning hours is possible with the environment Pal has.
108. 786
Great I feared as much. Wind field will prob. more than double by Sat
Has this season still got potential to create some greek alphabets?
HH finds a closed eyewall
windfield for paloma as forecasted during the 10am
Ft.pierce... one last note... watch out for... dum, dum,dum.. those Bullsharks..... scared me for sure a few weeks ago
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:
Has this season still got potential to create some greek alphabets?


Extremely unlikely...
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 17:22Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: Paloma1
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 17:07:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 1551'N 8154'W (15.85N 81.9W)
B. Center Fix Location: 241 miles (388 km) to the S (188) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,398m (4,587ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 49kts (~ 56.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the WNW (291) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 31 at 41kts (From the NNE at ~ 47.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the WNW (293) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16C (61F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19C (66F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16C (61F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) in the northwest quadrant at 17:04:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 61kts (~ 70.2mph) in the southeast quadrant at 17:11:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 20C (68F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the SE (129) from the flight level center


Storm PALOMA1: Observed By Air Force #303
Storm #17 in Atlantic Ocean
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 41KT (47.2mph 75.9km/h) In NW Quadrant At 17:04:40 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 36.9KT (42.4mph 68.3km/h) *
Misc Remarks: MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 61 KT SE QUAD 17:11:40 Z MAX FL TEMP 20 C 129 / 07 NM FROM FL CNTR ;
Date/Time of Recon Report: Thursday, November 06, 2008 12:07:00 PM (Thu, 6 Nov 2008 17:07:00 UTC)
Position of the center: 15° 51' N 081° 54' W (15.9°N 81.9°W) [See Map]
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 850mb: 1398m (Normal: 1457)
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 49KT (56.35MPH 90.8km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 8nm (9.2miles) From Center At Bearing 291°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 41KT (47.15mph 75.9km/h) From 031°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 8nm (9.2 miles) From Center At Bearing 293°
Minimum pressure: 997mb (29.44in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: CLOSED
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Circular , 18 nm (20.7 mi 33.3km) wide
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 850mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 1nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:
Has this season still got potential to create some greek alphabets?


I dont think so

2005 definitely it's own freak year "category"
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL172008
A. 06/17:07:10Z
B. 15 deg 51 min N
081 deg 54 min W
C. 850 mb 1398 m
D. 49 kt
E. 291 deg 8 nm
F. 031 deg 041 kt
G. 293 deg 008 nm
H. 997 mb
I. 16 C/ 1524 m
J. 19 C/ 1521 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C18
N. 12345/8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 0317A PALOMA1 OB 08
MAX FL WIND 41 KT NW QUAD 17:04:40 Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 61 KT SE QUAD 17:11:40 Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 129 / 07 NM FROM FL CNTR
from the vort message I wasnt too far off this morning

took a guess at 50knt and 990mb

closed eyewall sounds not good
Well now that we have a closed eye wall...Rapid intensification can occur.
Quoting Bonedog:
Storm PALOMA1: Observed By Air Force #303
Storm #17 in Atlantic Ocean
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 41KT (47.2mph 75.9km/h) In NW Quadrant At 17:04:40 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 36.9KT (42.4mph 68.3km/h) *
Misc Remarks: MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 61 KT SE QUAD 17:11:40 Z MAX FL TEMP 20 C 129 / 07 NM FROM FL CNTR ;
Date/Time of Recon Report: Thursday, November 06, 2008 12:07:00 PM (Thu, 6 Nov 2008 17:07:00 UTC)
Position of the center: 15° 51' N 081° 54' W (15.9°N 81.9°W) [See Map]
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 850mb: 1398m (Normal: 1457)
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 49KT (56.35MPH 90.8km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 8nm (9.2miles) From Center At Bearing 291°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 41KT (47.15mph 75.9km/h) From 031°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 8nm (9.2 miles) From Center At Bearing 293°
Minimum pressure: 997mb (29.44in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: CLOSED
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Circular , 18 nm (20.7 mi 33.3km) wide
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 850mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 1nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds


Big potential there then.
49 Knots(~56 MPH)with a closed eye
My son is at Fort P. he said its a head high mush, that is cleaning up but dropping. COOL SIte

www.magicseaweed.com THanx!
128. 7544
well this could make you dizzy where is it going

Link
I have a feeling Paloma will be coming further north than expected and South FL may not be out of the woods yet,although a storm effecting FL would get pretty tore up by sheer and could easily be decoupled.For now I would expect a hurricane by 5pm and a major by tomorrow's 5 pm,conditions now are next to perfect for RI.......
TROPICAL STORM PALOMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
100 PM EST THU NOV 06 2008

...INTENSIFYING PALOMA TURNS TOWARD THE NORTH...



AT 100 PM EST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PALOMA WAS
LOCATED BY AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE NEAR LATITUDE 15.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...165 KM...NORTHEAST
OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER AND ABOUT
235 MILES...380 KM...SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...
131. JRRP
.
Up to 60 MPH now.
133. 7544
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
TROPICAL STORM PALOMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
100 PM EST THU NOV 06 2008

...INTENSIFYING PALOMA TURNS TOWARD THE NORTH...



AT 100 PM EST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PALOMA WAS
LOCATED BY AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE NEAR LATITUDE 15.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...165 KM...NORTHEAST
OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER AND ABOUT
235 MILES...380 KM...SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...


turns north now moving 7 mph intensifing how will this effect with the timing of the trof isnt polaoma moving faster than expected now
Quoting stillwaiting:
I have a feeling Paloma will be coming further north than expected and South FL may not be out of the woods yet,although a storm effecting FL would get pretty tore up by sheer and could easily be decoupled.For now I would expect a hurricane by 5pm and a major by tomorrow's 5 pm,conditions now are next to perfect for RI.......

I really doubt that Paloma will get anywhere near Florida....Also I really dont think Paloma will be able to make it to Cat 3.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
996.5 mb
(~ 29.43 inHg)


Also recon found 70mph flight winds....Im gonna take a guess and say at 1pm Paloma will be a 60mph Tropical storm with a 997mb pressure.


Right on....
REPEATING THE 100 PM EST POSITION...15.9 N...81.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:

I really doubt that Paloma will get anywhere near Florida....Also I really dont think Paloma will be able to make it to Cat 3.


I disagree, also Jeff says It might make it to Category 3 Status, but time will tell. I wasn't expecting Omar to reach Category 4 status.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 994.0mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.5 3.6 4.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -51.1C Cloud Region Temp : -60.0C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.96 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
Very concensus aggreement...


so hurricane tonight is becoming even more possible but how strong of a cane is my question now

what do you think the 11pm will say?
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I disagree, also Jeff says It might make it to Category 3 Status, but time will tell. I wasn't expecting Omar to reach Category 4 status.


Well I think that it can peak at around 105-110mph. 5-10mph doesnt make a huge difference.
Quoting Hurricane4Lex:
so hurricane tonight is becoming even more possible but how strong of a cane is my question now

what do you think the 11pm will say?


Either a 70mph Ts or a 75mph Hurricane with a 989-986mph pressure.
Quoting surfmom:
Ft.pierce... one last note... watch out for... dum, dum,dum.. those Bullsharks..... scared me for sure a few weeks ago

those bull sharks and black tips are just something we have to deal with every mullet run, but the further away from the jetty the better off you are ????
I definitely think we'll get a major but I still say Pal has got nothing on FLA
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I disagree, also Jeff says It might make it to Category 3 Status, but time will tell. I wasn't expecting Omar to reach Category 4 status.


Omar got to cat 4?
Quoting 7544:
well this could make you dizzy where is it going

Link


If that scenerio plays out this storm would do a loop,and then a 2nd trough looks like it would sweep it into SFL!!!!,now about half the models have the first trough not being strong enough to pull it across cuba...
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Either a 70mph Ts or a 75mph Hurricane with a 989-986mph pressure.


can i go with an 85mph hurricane.
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


Omar got to cat 4?


In the discussion, it implies it did. Of course, it is not official till the PSA.
I agree 75 mph to 80 mph seems likely Stormc and 2007 and IWC at 11pm
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


can i go with an 85mph hurricane.


Sure.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I disagree, also Jeff says It might make it to Category 3 Status, but time will tell. I wasn't expecting Omar to reach Category 4 status.


Whether or not Paloma reaches major hurricane status is entirely academic. Those in a path of any hurricane should prepare for a storm one category higher than the intensity predicted.

In this case, the NHC says Cat 2. Prepare for a Cat 3 at least. That way, the chances of getting caught out are lower.

Don't level the 'We don't get major hurricanes in November' because that is flatly false. We have done before on more than one occasion (Including Cat 4 and 5s), and I bet we will see more in the future. Be it tomorrow, be it on the weekend, be it next year, be it in a decade.

Cat.2 easily coming....Water temps support it and shear is not a problem for the next 48 hours......
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


Omar got to cat 4?


According the the NHC's discussion it did between advisory times. 115 KTS.
154. 7544
Quoting stillwaiting:


If that scenerio plays out this storm would do a loop,and then a 2nd trough looks like it would sweep it into SFL!!!!,now about half the models have the first trough not being strong enough to pull it across cuba...


the key is how far north will poloma go the fact that it is moving at 7 mph now could change things around could we see a new cone latter on tonight
Quoting CybrTeddy:


According the the NHC's discussion it did between advisory times. 115 KTS.


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
500 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN PENETRATING THE EYE OF
OMAR AND MEASURED A PRESSURE OF 959 MB AND TWO SPOT WINDS OF 132
AND 124 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL. THE CREW COULD NOT SAMPLE THE ENTIRE
EYEWALL DUE TO EXTREMELY HIGH TURBULENCE. OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS
OSCILLATED BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE DURING THAT
TIME. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT OMAR REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115
KNOTS EARLIER.

115 kt=132mph, just inside the range for a Category Four Hurricane.
Surfmom is going to have some perfect conditions for surfing with this storm where she lives....
nice food's ready see ya all later at 5 or 11pm
4 PM's the next advisory.
160. Vero1
AXNT20 KNHC 061755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU NOV 06 2008

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM PALOMA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.9N 81.9W AT 06/1800
UTC OR ABOUT 90 NM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER AND ABOUT 200 NM S OF GRAND CAYMAN
MOVING NNW AT 6 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE
RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
PALOMA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA
FROM 150/180 NM OF LINE FROM INLAND OVER HONDURAS/NICARAGUA NEAR
15N85W TO OVER CUBA NEAR 22N78W.
161. Vero1
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE CARIBBEAN IS TROPICAL
STORM PALOMA AND THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. BROAD UPPER RIDGE INT HE IS ANCHORED IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N75W DOMINATING THE ENTIRE AREA AND
ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH PALOMA AND PROVIDING GOOD
OUTFLOW MAINLY TO THE W. THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W REMAINS
DOMINATED BY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR LIMITING ANY
ACTIVITY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OVER THE VIRGIN AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THIS AREA IS UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 15N BETWEEN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND 65W.

Afternoon Bonedog
Do those big ships have any wind restrictions while docking?
Quoting TampaSpin:
Surfmom is going to have some perfect conditions for surfing with this storm where she lives....


Surfmom lives on SouthWest Coast of Florida.
S.W. Florida may not get any swell from this storm. Cuba is blocking any ground swell moving North towards S.W. Florida.
And once the storm Crosses Cuba the winds will be blowing off shore on the West Coast of Florida.
i still believe paloma will probably take a more northerly track and i truly believe that paloma will come close enough to South Florida to give us some rain. but i would like to reinterate i don't think it will directly affect South Florida at this time. unless some thing out of nowhere happens thats why i never say never
we got a spinner now with rebuilding convection about to commence will become hurricane soon
017L/TS/P
MOVEMENT N SLIGHT NW
EST POS
15N/82W
That is one potent trof that will move into the southeast soon...Paloma has no idea the brick wall it will soon run into.
Wow...

models on wu shifted east since this am
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Surfmom lives on SouthWest Coast of Florida.
S.W. Florida may not get any swell from this storm. Cuba is blocking any ground swell moving North towards S.W. Florida.
And once the storm Crosses Cuba the winds will be blowing off shore on the West Coast of Florida.


Surfmom moved to the East Coast I believe
(crawling back from under my rock to yell) stop mentioning florida! (crawling back under) Model come out at 2 correct?
171. bwi
Based on the 1pm position, what are thoughts on whether Grand Cayman is likelier to be on the right or left side of the track?

PS, NHC sometimes doesn't adjust their skinny line sometimes -- the 16,82 position is nearly outside their current cone!
Trackin' Paloma and watch her blow up...

or...

Finish up this paper which has to be handed in tomorrow.

Ah, the eternal debate of the student.

(Okay perhaps not, unless Paloma was a type of alcoholic beverage. The way this season has gone, I wouldn't be surprised. Watch out for a Pina Paloma near you.)
994.6 mb
(~ 29.37 inHg)

Winds about the same.
Before I head out for a while... looks like that as per the latest vortext fix that Palomita is trying to pull a NAM on us.

Waiting on the ECMWF before I give some updates of my own.
Most of the 12Z models are aready out. Cmc is having another run that agrees with today's mm5, that Paloma misses the trough. GFS & gfdl says trough takes her over eastern cuba. Nogaps doesn't look inished well & wanders it into Honduras. Interesting split.

bwi~If the trough misses it, your island could be harrassed for days at it passes just south of there, backtracks to head off to the W & NW of there.
176. bwi
175. Thanks!
996mb by latest Dropsonde..
New Vortex:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 18:43Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: Paloma1
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 12
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 18:28:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°03'N 81°47'W (16.05N 81.7833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 226 miles (364 km) to the S (187°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,376m (4,514ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 51kts (~ 58.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NE (50°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 133° at 60kts (From the SE at ~ 69.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NE (50°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.41 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,519m (4,984ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the northwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.05 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 61kts (~ 70.2mph) in the southeast quadrant at 17:11:40Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
GOOD BANDING AROUND CENTER
good news eyewall open
Quoting yannik29:
good news eyewall open


Bad news that it has an eyewall, A lot of times the eyewall can be open in Hurricanes.
for the moment good news so no rapid int. at this time
i thought the eyewall was closed?
at the first vortex the found a closed eyewall no its open to the northwest
Quoting nolesjeff:


Surfmom moved to the East Coast I believe
I thought she lives on the west coast tampa area goes to the east coast to surf not 100% sure
I just updated my Blog if anyone would like to review......

TampaSpin's Tropical Update Link
Quoting Robin08:
I thought she lives on the west coast tampa area goes to the east coast to surf not 100% sure


Surfmom lives on the West coast near Sarasota.
187. bwi
Although the storm structure looks good for intensification, I'm encouraged by the eastward shifts.

With luck, will go enough south of Caymans to limit problems, go well West of Jamaica so no worries there, and get torn apart before Cuba, which doesn't need another storm.
Keep in mind off shore winds make for some very good wave caps.......on shore winds lowers the cap......off shore winds tend to keep the wave standing up.
Good afternoon

As you may well imagine we are all watching Paloma very intently. The track due N has started early and the best outcome for us now is for a shift further East and a pass well below Grand Cayman.

The South coast is very prone to onshore flooding and a direct strike from a Cat2/3 from the South would cause tremendous damage. Even if it stayed due N all the way until it passed us we would get the stronger side of the system and the Eastern eyewall along the West coast. This would be equally destructive for the beach and the South coast.

The center fix shows the position to be near 81.8 so there is a small component of just E of due N already in the motion. How soon the turn to the NE comes will be critical for Grand Cayman as well as our sister islands.

As much I as watch this site, and all the others, you would think I would know - but did they change the times that the updates are put out? I always remember the 2:00 update, not 1:00.
Quoting zoomiami:
As much I as watch this site, and all the others, you would think I would know - but did they change the times that the updates are put out? I always remember the 2:00 update, not 1:00.


Every update is moved forward by 1 hour now...
Remember the National Hurricane Center are the Professionals and release complete updates at 11 and 5 on the hour and partial updates at 2 and 8 on the hour if needed. All times are Eastern Daylite time..
Quoting kmanislander:
Good afternoon

As you may well imagine we are all watching Paloma very intently. The track due N has started early and the best outcome for us now is for a shift further East and a pass well below Grand Cayman.

The South coast is very prone to onshore flooding and a direct strike from a Cat2/3 from the South would cause tremendous damage. Even if it stayed due N all the way until it passed us we would get the stronger side of the system and the Eastern eyewall along the West coast. This would be equally destructive for the beach and the South coast.

The center fix shows the position to be near 81.8 so there is a small component of just E of due N already in the motion. How soon the turn to the NE comes will be critical for Grand Cayman as well as our sister islands.

I hope you guys don't get another storm its the last thing you need on such a beautiful island. Was there last year at this time on a cruise. Wonderful place would like to spend more time in the future
Quoting TampaSpin:
Remember the National Hurricane Center are the Professionals and release complete updates at 11 and 5 on the hour and partial updates at 2 and 8 on the hour if needed. All times are Eastern Daylite time..I just pasted this from my blog......lol
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Every update is moved forward by 1 hour now...

EX:
TROPICAL STORM PALOMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
100 PM EST THU NOV 06 2008

The updates are at:
1am
4am
7am
10am
1pm
4pm
7pm
10pm
All NHC bulletins are issued at UTC or Z which remains the same irrespective of day light saving. Thus with the clocks going back one hour from last Sunday, the latest bulletins wiil be one hour earlier than the summer.
pres. down to 993
Models not in good consensus. No eyewall can lead to missing the front and following the CMC which calls for it meandering until the next front pulls it out to sea.
Greetings from Grand Cayman. Like a country song we say, "Ya know it is Cayman when it's time to take the boards down and put the Christmas lights up." Michelle and Mitch were both November damaging storms. I was actually sailing from Jamaica during Mitch and back then, the TV weather channel didn't even have us on their map. This is going to cause a lot of flooding as the ground is already saturated from this week's rain. Time to pull the boat out and stock up again...
Next Advisory will probably be:
Winds:65mph
Pressure:993mb
The satellite wind measures are seeing a nice eyewall. Really putting it together for a late-season TS

203. XL
Well I have taken delivery of a new puppy today - really not looking forward to going through a hurricane with her so young but at least I will have her with me.
Hubby was meant to be flying to Brazil on Friday - now cancelled and I am meant to have friends arriving from the UK on Sunday evening for a short visit.
Looks like Paloma is going to trash all my plans - fingers crossed that it is only plans that she ruins
Quoting atmoaggie:
The satellite wind measures are seeing a nice eyewall. Really putting it together for a late-season TS



That product almost always shows a perfect circulation....Even in tropical disturbances. Although I agree that Paloma has a solid eye wall.
Buoy 42057, 87 nm northish is feeling the pressure change on it's barometer

Instead of the models coming in better agreement they are starting to split now. IMO
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


That product almost always shows a perfect circulation....Even in tropical disturbances. Although I agree that Paloma has a solid eye wall.


Sometimes does, but seemingly only when it is real. Here is the same thing right before Gustav got his act together...very messy.

Further: Winds on open water driven by geostrophic balance between Coriolis and pressure gradient are just that...a perfect circulation.

EDIT: Whisky Tango Foxtrot...where is the plot?

Quoting weathers4me:
Instead of the models coming in better agreement they are starting to split now. IMO


I see the same thing happening......in fact the NGP model as this first front missing Paloma....
OK, last try for the satellite Gustav example:
It seems that Paloma has strengthened quite a bit today, and the model consensus is still ambiguous.
We MUST watch it closly!!!!!!!!!!!!! the models are 50/50
Quoting Cotillion:
(Okay perhaps not, unless Paloma was a type of alcoholic beverage. The way this season has gone, I wouldn't be surprised. Watch out for a Pina Paloma near you.)


http://www.palomavineyard.com/home.asp

LOL
Quoting atmoaggie:


Sometimes does, but seemingly only when it is real. Here is the same thing right before Gustav got his act together...very messy.

Further: Winds on open water driven by geostrophic balance between Coriolis and pressure gradient are just that...a perfect circulation.

EDIT: Whisky Tango Foxtrot...where is the plot?



India Delta Kilo
Really starting to wrap.....wow..

A lot of fast moving low-level cloud action here in Grand Cayman at the moment. The ground here is already flooded from last week's rains. Starting to reprovision supplies. Loss of electricity is probable, since we experienced "brown outs" last night. How long until next update?
Quoting TheTracker08:
We MUST watch it closly!!!!!!!!!!!!! the models are 50/50


Definitly....look at the GFS ensemble models. The majority of them are in agreement with the CMC.

Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site (New Format)
218. eddye
watch out fl another wilma maybe a cat 2 hurricane this weekedn going to ruin my birthday and the dolphins game this weekend that stinks the one i was going to go this weekend to the game
219. o311
Paloma is east of her tracking position on the wunderground flash-tracker.
Someone post the new Tracks?
CMC is not that reliable for me I believe that the storm will be impacted by the front and sent outwards.
Thank you furure met! Just so you know, im getting my A.A in Meteorology and ive already won a free trip to the American Meteorological Council Meeting in Pheonix Arizona in January from my professor and im taking a General Meteorology class just to be ahead once i begin my B.A in the field, my avg score in the class is a 96%!. You seem to be quite intelligent, become a student member if youre a student in highschool or a college student member if you are in college, im a part of the college membership. its awesome, and you get lots of discounts on books and such!
Its bad news for Florida because its moving faster then expected the more north it goes the more it will impact Florida.
Models act kind of algebreic, one screw up with a sign, and the whole problem goes haywire! Be careful people, dont be too confident!
Quoting Vortex95:
CMC is not that reliable for me I believe that the storm will be impacted by the front and sent outwards.


Yep

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 19:33Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: Paloma1
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 16
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 19:20:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°13'N 81°48'W (16.2167N 81.8W)
B. Center Fix Location: 215 miles (346 km) to the S (187°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,370m (4,495ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 52kts (~ 59.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the SSE (165°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 262° at 52kts (From the W at ~ 59.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the SSE (166°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.35 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,545m (5,069ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,505m (4,938ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 61kts (~ 70.2mph) in the southeast quadrant at 17:11:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 60kts (~ 69.0mph) in the north quadrant at 19:24:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the SSE (155°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
INFRQ LTG S EYEWALL, LGT TURBC N EYEWALL

Quoting atmoaggie:
Buoy 42057, 87 nm northish is feeling the pressure change on it's barometer



Is that local or regional? Compare to the graph from my station in Austin, Texas. The upturn at the end is from the dry line that went through last night.
id rather it come to FL then anywhere else, they need a break, we can definatly handle a Catagory 1 or 2, bring it Paloma!, ill be waiting in S FL for ya!
Quoting TheTracker08:
id rather it come to FL then anywhere else, they need a break, we can definatly handle a Catagory 1 or 2, bring it Paloma!, ill be waiting in S FL for ya!


It won't hit FL
Quoting Brillig:


Is that local or regional? Compare to the graph from my station in Austin, Texas. The upturn at the end is from the dry line that went through last night.


Answer: probably both. The environment for Paloma to initially develop would show a pressure depression and then Paloma's own deepening 87 NM to the south. Good comment, though...someone in Austin is actually paying attention.. ;-)
Quoting MichaelSTL:


http://www.palomavineyard.com/home.asp

LOL


Haha!

Well spotted, sir!
NHC giving better chance of a Cat2 than a Cat1 in 36 hours.

Quoting TheTracker08:
Thank you furure met! Just so you know, im getting my A.A in Meteorology and ive already won a free trip to the American Meteorological Council Meeting in Pheonix Arizona in January from my professor and im taking a General Meteorology class just to be ahead once i begin my B.A in the field, my avg score in the class is a 96%!. You seem to be quite intelligent, become a student member if youre a student in highschool or a college student member if you are in college, im a part of the college membership. its awesome, and you get lots of discounts on books and such!


Further: If you were a student member, they will also discount your full membership for a while right after you graduate.
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Mirror Site (New Format)
Quoting atmoaggie:


Answer: probably both. The environment for Paloma to initially develop would show a pressure depression and then Paloma's own deepening 87 NM to the south. Good comment, though...someone in Austin is actually paying attention.. ;-)


Anyone have a link to a good animated isobar map of the region/hemisphere?
Our nearest buoy is really beginning to catch some wind

Quoting Brillig:


Anyone have a link to a good animated isobar map of the region/hemisphere?


Cannot find a good one ready-made and freely available. One method might be to download the 0 hour forecast (nowcast) MSLP plots from GFS runs for the last couple of days and make them loop. Gotta go...later, all.
000
WTNT32 KNHC 062357
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PALOMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
700 PM EST THU NOV 06 2008

CORRECTED HURRICANE STATUS IN LOCATION PARAGRAPH

...PALOMA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

INTERESTS IN CUBA AND JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PALOMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 PM EST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST OR ABOUT 165
MILES...270 KM...SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 280 MILES...450 KM
...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.

PALOMA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MOST OF DAY ON
FRIDAY...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FORECAST TO OCCUR
LATE FRIDAY AND ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PALOMA IS NOW A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. PALOMA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY
ORGANIZE AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. PALOMA IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST HOUR...NOAA BUOY 42057 LOCATED
JUST EAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED A ONE-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF
71 MPH...115 KM/HR AND A WIND GUST TO 78 MPH...126 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY DATA FROM THE NEARBY NOAA
BUOY IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS
OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 700 PM EST POSITION...16.9 N...81.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 1000 PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




OUCH!!!
CAYMAN PALOMA WILL BE HERE BY 9-10 IN THE AM