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Pakistan's Katrina; 94L could develop in Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:23 PM GMT on August 10, 2010

The monsoon season of 2010 continues to generate havoc in Asia, as lingering rains from the latest monsoon low continue to affect hard-hit Pakistan, China, and India. At least 702 are now reported dead and 1,042 are missing in China's Gansu province, due to torrential monsoon rains that triggered a deadly landslide and extreme flooding on Sunday. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, with 500 people missing. Monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. But no country has suffered more than Pakistan, where monsoon floods have destroyed huge portions of the nation's infrastructure and killed at least 1600 people. The number of people affected or needing assistance has been estimated to be as high as 13 million people--8% of the nation's population. The disaster is the worst natural disaster in Pakistan's history, and is rightfully being called "Pakistan's Katrina."


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Monsoons: a primer
In summer, the sun warms up land areas more strongly than ocean areas. This occurs because wind and ocean turbulence mix the ocean's absorbed heat into a "mixed layer" approximately 50 meters deep, whereas on land, the sun's heat penetrates at a slow rate to a limited depth. Furthermore, due to its molecular properties, water has the ability to absorb more heat than the solid materials that make up land. As a result of this summertime differential heating of land and ocean, a low pressure region featuring rising air develops over land areas. Moisture-laden ocean winds blow towards the low pressure region and are drawn upwards once over land. The rising air expands and cools, condensing its moisture into some of the heaviest rains on Earth--the monsoon. Monsoons operate via the same principle as the familiar summer afternoon sea breeze, but on a grand scale. Each summer, monsoons affect every continent on Earth except Antarctica, and are responsible for life-giving rains that sustain the lives of billions of people. In India, home for over 1.1 billion people, the monsoon provides 80% of the annual rainfall. However, monsoons have their dark side as well--hundreds of people in India and surrounding nations die in an average year in floods and landslides triggered by heavy monsoon rains. The most deadly flooding events usually come from monsoon depressions (also known as monsoon lows.) A monsoon depression is similar to (but larger than) a tropical depression. Both are spinning storms hundreds of kilometers in diameter with sustained winds of 50 - 55 kph (30 - 35 mph), nearly calm winds at their center, and generate very heavy rains. Each summer, approximately 6 - 7 monsoon depressions form over the Bay of Bengal and track westwards across India. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in the El Niño-weakened monsoon season of 2009. This year's first monsoon depression formed on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela. A second monsoon depression arrived in Pakistan on August 3, and has brought additional heavy rains.

Are the this year's monsoon floods due to global warming?
No single weather event can be attributed to climate change, but a warming climate does load the dice in favor of heavier extreme precipitation events. This occurs because more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere, increasing the chances of record heavy downpours. In a study published in Science in 2006, Goswami et al. found that the level of heavy rainfall activity in the monsoon over India had more than doubled in the 50 years since the 1950s, leading to an increased disaster potential from heavy flooding. Moderate and weak rain events decreased over the past 50 years, leaving the total amount of rain deposited by the monsoon roughly constant. The authors commented, "These findings are in tune with model projections and some observations that indicate an increase in heavy rain events and a decrease in weak events under global warming scenarios." We should expect to see an increased number of disastrous monsoon floods in coming decades if the climate continues to warm as expected. Since the population continues to increase at a rapid rate in the region, death tolls from monsoon flooding disasters are likely to climb dramatically in coming decades.

References
Goswami, et al., 2006, " Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment", Science, 1 December 2006:Vol. 314. no. 5804, pp. 1442 - 1445 DOI: 10.1126/science.1132027

Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China.

Donations urgently needed
The massive humanitarian crisis in Pakistan requires a huge response by the international community. Wunderblogger Dr. Ricky Rood, author of our Climate Change Blog, has a friend working in Pakistan who underscored the desperate situation there:

This is the worst natural disaster in the history of Pakistan in terms of number of people and area affected. Although not as many people have been killed as in the 2005 earthquake, we have already nearly 900,000 displaced persons thus far just in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Crops are destroyed; shops, hotels, and other business have simply been swept away in Swat, which had just this year been cleared of Taliban and was on the way to recovery; and districts closer to Peshawar and parts of Peshawar district are still, or perhaps again after yesterday/today, under water. After the immediate emergency response, it will be years of rebuilding to replace what has been lost and to start to develop again. I know you have the power to control the weather, so if you cold give us a week or two without more rain at least we could keep the helicopters flying and give people a chance to go to their homes, recover what might still be there, set up tents if we can get enough to them, and start to clean up."

She gave the following recommendations for charities that do work in the flood-ravaged zone, and are effective at getting aid to those who need it the most:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

She mentioned that it is better to send money to the organizations doing the relief work than to try to organize shipments of goods.


Figure 2. Morning radar image of 94L from the Key West radar.

94L
A 1010 mb low pressure system (94L) near the Florida Keys is generating disorganized heavy thunderstorms over Florida and the adjacent waters, and could become a tropical or subtropical depression as early as Wednesday. Current Key West radar shows the rotation of the storm, but the thunderstorm activity has not yet organized into low-level spiral bands. A few areas in the Keys and extreme South Florida have seen 1 - 2 inches of rain thus far from 94L. Wind shear is currently a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 94L, and water temperatures are very warm, 30 - 31°C. Water vapor satellite imagery shows that 94L is forming beneath an upper-level low with plenty of dry air, and there is a substantial flow of dry, continental air wrapping into 94L. This dry air is retarding the development of 94L, and may force the storm to organize into a subtropical storm instead of a tropical storm. A subtropical storm typically has a large, cloud free center of circulation, with very heavy thunderstorm activity in a band removed at least 100 miles from the center. The difference between a subtropical storm and a tropical storm is not that important as far as the winds they can generate, but tropical storms generate more rain. There is no such thing as a subtropical hurricane. If a subtropical storm intensifies enough to have hurricane force winds, than it must have become fully tropical. It usually takes at least two days for a subtropical storm to make the transition to a tropical storm.

Forecast for 94L
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the Gulf of Mexico this week. The storm's main problem will be dry air, and I don't expect 94L to undergo rapid development. Most of the models bring 94L ashore over Louisiana by Thursday, though the GFDL model predicts 94L could stall off the coast and not make landfall until Friday. If 94L does make landfall Thursday, it is unlikely to be a hurricane, due to all the dry air aloft in the Gulf. However, the GFDL model is predicting that the 1-day delay in landfall to Friday will allow 94L enough time to grow fully tropical and intensify into a Category 1 hurricane. I think this solution is unlikely. Storms that get their start underneath a cold, dry, upper-level low very rarely attain hurricane strength in three days. A 40 - 50 mph tropical or subtropical storm at landfall Thursday or Friday is a much more reasonable forecast.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) in the middle Atlantic Ocean is close to tropical depression status. The disturbance has a well-defined surface circulation, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which is low enough that 93L could become a tropical depression at any time during that period. NHC is giving 93L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday morning. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL forecasts that the storm will become a hurricane. A strong trough of low pressure moving across the central Atlantic is recurving 93L to the north, and the system should only be a concern to shipping interests. None of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days, other than for 93L and 94L.

Moscow hits 99°F again today
Temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport hit 37°C (99°F) today, the 28th day in row that temperatures have exceeded 30°C (86°F) in Moscow. The average high temperature for August 10 is 21°C (69°F). Moscow's high temperature have averaged 15°C (27°F) above average for the first ten days of August--a truly extraordinary anomaly. Smog and smoke from wildfires continued to blanket the city today, with the Russian Meteorological Agency reporting that pollution due to carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and hydrocarbons exceeding the safe limit by factors of 1.2 - 2.2. Air pollution levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level on Saturday. As I reported in yesterday's post, the heat wave has likely killed at least 15,000 people in Russia so far. There is some slight relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures of 31 - 33°C (88 - 91°F) Wednesday though Sunday--still 20°F above normal, but better than the 27°F above normal so far this month.

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on my blog during the show. You can also email the questions to me today before the show: jmasters@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line. Some topics I'll cover today on the show:

1) Invest 94 and 93
2) A look ahead at the coming two weeks
3) Status of La Niña

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Jeff Masters

Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I wouldn't write off TD5 so fast....
3502. FLDART1
Link

Florida State Emergency Response Team Incident Mapper... Interesting Link with Real time Recon of Incidents
Who Dat!!!!!
WELL we are 3 days away from mid august season numbered update looks like a big downward turn on my numbers for sure unless we get 5 storms in the next 72 hrs we will see
Miami Dolphins all the way this year all though the Jets look very impressive. My team is the Dolphins and I stick with them good or bad. 3 more weeks till the regular season!
Quoting tkeith:
That's silly...The headlines will be Saints trounce Patriots in first pre-season game. On to the Superbowl!
Talk about wish-casting!
Quoting tkeith:
That's silly...The headlines will be Saints trounce Patriots in first pre-season game. On to the Superbowl!


You got that right!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Who Dat!!!!!


Drew dat
Two Dat!
Quoting gator23:

that would be a DIFFERENT low pressure system. you said "that storm coming back into the gulf" which indicates to me that you believe that td5 will be coming back into the gulf. This is wrong as it will be a DIFFERENT system coming into the gulf Monday. try blogging with your one mouth closed.


Did you forget posting this???
3510. gator23
Quoting FLDART1:
Link

Florida State Emergency Response Team Incident Mapper... Interesting Link with Real time Recon of Incidents

VERY INTERESTING
Thunderstorms already overhead in NOLA....
Quoting LADobeLady:


Drew dat
Two Dat!





Ooooo...I LIKE Dat!!!
Quoting HurricaneKyle:


refer to the post directly above your post.


Great post BTW. And I agree with you there will be a major systems or perhaps several during September. It is the peak of the season and all of this accumulated heat has to give something, but I am thinking that they will be fish storms which is the most efficient way for those systems to remove heat from the Atlantic. Cape verde systems which will follow the route of Collin and 93L. That to me would sound like music to my ears and great news especially when here in the Gulf Coast we have been already impacted by this Oil Spill and it's adverse effects, to include the stopping of all drilling which have left many good paid workerd on the streets now.

Oh and by the way After experiencing Katrina's full wrath, I went from wishcaster to shoocaster. Don't want them here.
3514. gator23
Quoting 69Viking:


Did you forget posting this???

obviously
3515. Gearsts
Quoting HurricaneKyle:
that heat's going to get dispersed some way. The natural balance is for hurricanes to do it. We have the highest SST's on Earth right now, and every other basin has been experiencing slow to average seasons. It is our basin that has the heat, our basin the MJO trends back to, our basin with all the ingredients. See all these ULL that killed off Bonnie and might kill TD5? They won't stop a major CV system. Right now over Africa there is a huge wave that resembles a tropical storm over land and even Montgomery Research Group addressed it as such, called PGI28L.
This will be a late season instead of numbers we will get Big major hurracanes
3516. gator23
Quoting Jeff9641:
Miami Dolphins all the way this year all though the Jets look very impressive. My team is the Dolphins and I stick with them good or bad. 3 more weeks till the regular season!

Dolphins all the way! They are good for the first time in a while.
3517. b4dirt
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/plots/uv900_anim.html
Quoting nola70119:
I wouldn't write off TD5 so fast....


No one's writing off TD 5. It's still fore-casted to become a tropical storm before landfall which is very likely. It's not looking good now, but there's still a high possibility of it becoming a 50 mph storm or so.
3519. IKE
Look at the water vapor on TD5....notice how dry air has gotten into it. Chance this gets downgraded at 10 am CDST. Just my amateur opinion.....




Maybe the same problem 93L has....

We will probably see our first CV hurricane by the 27th of August.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
WELL we are 3 days away from mid august season numbered update looks like a big downward turn on my numbers for sure unless we get 5 storms in the next 72 hrs we will see


It's not the numbers that counts, true we might not see even 16 this year, what counts is the power of those storms. Which would you call the active season? The season with 25 named storms, but all of them are weak with one or two major hurricanes, or the season with 15 named storms that had 5-6 major hurricanes that all affected land? It's the heat that needs to be balanced in the Atlantic and this season will eventually pop out one that balances the heat. Whether is a fish or a land branded storm I don't know, but it has to happen. Hurricane's are the A/C of the Earth.
Quoting gator23:

Dolphins all the way! They are good for the first time in a while.


THe AFC is tough this year but I think Miami made enough acquistions to propel them to the AFC East title this year.
3523. papper
Quoting BLee2333:


Don't know, but they have a pretty good muscadine that comes out of there...


Don't know but there was also a lake chataqua in my old home town of MS.

Seems Chataqua was an extensive religious movement in the early 1900's that tended to go from place to place and left its tracks all over rural america at the time.

Link
3524. gator23
Quoting Jeff9641:


THe AFC is tough this year but I think Miami made enough acquistions to propel them to the AFC East title this year.

I agree. The Jets are good though, however the Jets biggest problem will themselves/ego
3525. tkeith
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Talk about wish-casting!
LOL Shen :)
3526. IKE
MJO through August 26th....

Quoting HurricaneKyle:


It's not the numbers that counts, true we might not see even 16 this year, what counts is the power of those storms. Which would you call the active season? The season with 25 named storms, but all of them are weak with one or two major hurricanes, or the season with 15 named storms that had 5-6 major hurricanes that all affected land? It's the heat that needs to be balanced in the Atlantic and this season will eventually pop out one that balances the heat. Whether is a fish or a land branded storm I don't know, but it has to happen. Hurricane's are the A/C of the Earth.


Well, we haven't even seen any powerful storms with the exception of Alex (which was only a cat 2). The most we saw was a few weak tropical storms and depressions. I think it's reasonable to say that this season may not be all that it's hyped up to be. I think we may say a few major hurricanes, but that's it. There's no proof that the storms are going to stronger this year, especially based off the first 2 and a half months (with the somewhat exception of Alex).
3528. GetReal
WOW!!! What a lightning storm currently over the NOLA area!!! NUMERUOS cloud to ground strikes!!!
Here's PGI28L. If this manages to sustain as it emerges off the coast we could see something.

Quoting nola70119:
I wouldn't write off TD5 so fast....
why? do you think it will blow back up today and maybe make it to t.s.? i am kinda disappointed in this system. my hopes were up to enjoy a nice breeze and a little rain. i don't want a major, but i sure would like a little one to give us some cooler temps and some interesting weather.
Black and goooooold to the superbooooowl
3532. GetReal
This was lifted from JB's blog this morning. He talks about TD5 as well.


"National Wildlife Federation chief Larry Schweiger referred to the skeptics as enemies and that he hoped the alarmists would outlive the bastards."



Ya'll wanna see the rest?

Warning! It's not for the faint of heart!


Take the next 15 mins to vote. I'll be back.
3534. tkeith
Quoting GetReal:
WOW!!! What a lightning storm currently over the NOLA area!!! NUMERUOS cloud to ground strikes!!!
Earthlydragonfly would get lots of good shots from my window right now...GR is not exagerating!
Storm, you mention in your blog (very nicely put together-thanks for your knowledgeable input daily) that you expect the track to move further East. How much farther East do you expect?
Quoting weatherblog:


Well, we haven't even seen any powerful storms with the exception of Alex (which was only a cat 2). The most we saw was a few weak tropical storms and depressions. I think it's reasonable to say that this season may not be all that it's hyped up to be. I think we may say a few major hurricanes, but that's it. There's no proof that the storms are going to stronger this year, especially based off the first 2 and a half months (with the somewhat exception of Alex).









You be the judge, but all that tells me that a big one's getting ready to pop.
Quoting HurricaneKyle:
Here's PGI28L. If this manages to sustain as it emerges off the coast we could see something.



It's looking good. It's about time.
3538. FLdewey
Bad day for fishing in Nawlins...

Quoting HurricaneKyle:









You be the judge, but all that tells me that a big one's getting ready to pop.


Well, quite possible, but judging off Colin, and most recently 93L and TD 5, conditions don't seem all too favorable.
Quoting HurricaneKyle:


It's not the numbers that counts, true we might not see even 16 this year, what counts is the power of those storms. Which would you call the active season? The season with 25 named storms, but all of them are weak with one or two major hurricanes, or the season with 15 named storms that had 5-6 major hurricanes that all affected land? It's the heat that needs to be balanced in the Atlantic and this season will eventually pop out one that balances the heat. Whether is a fish or a land branded storm I don't know, but it has to happen. Hurricane's are the A/C of the Earth.
power even that which came has been weak and feeble struggle every step of the way 93 94 and all the others stuggle alex being the only exception and that was just before landfall something up and i don't know what it is but we got too much of something lets see how peak plays out we should on average have about 5 systems from end of aug till 2nd week of sept if that fails you may as well write off the rest of it time is runnin out there is only about 5 good weeks left after that its downhill from there
3541. Gearsts
Quoting weatherblog:


Well, we haven't even seen any powerful storms with the exception of Alex (which was only a cat 2). The most we saw was a few weak tropical storms and depressions. I think it's reasonable to say that this season may not be all that it's hyped up to be. I think we may say a few major hurricanes, but that's it. There's no proof that the storms are going to stronger this year, especially based off the first 2 and a half months (with the somewhat exception of Alex).
Alex was the second strongest hurracane on june i belive.It was a cat 2 with his winds but everything else from that beast was major
Quoting weatherblog:


Well, quite possible, but judging off Colin, and most recently 93L and TD 5, conditions don't seem all too favorable.


Colin and 93L formed within the ITCZ, they took a while to organize and the TUTT was in the way because they began to move northward under the influence of a weakness in the ridge and the trough that formed TD5. TD5 and Bonnie, where plagued by a ULL that followed it around. Do you see any ULL out by the Cape Verde? Nope. One storm though this year had no ULLs or TUTTs to deal with, guess what happened?
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
This was lifted from JB's blog this morning. He talks about TD5 as well.


"National Wildlife Federation chief Larry Schweiger referred to the skeptics as enemies and that he hoped the alarmists would outlive the bastards."



Ya'll wanna see the rest?

Warning! It's not for the faint of heart!


Take the next 15 mins to vote. I'll be back.


Go ahead.....
Quoting LADobeLady:


Drew dat
Two Dat!
feed em teaspoons of defeat,yeah who dat!!!!
Raining pretty good here on the Westbank!!!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
power even that which came has been weak and feeble struggle every step of the way 93 94 and all the others stuggle alex being the only exception and that was just before landfall something up and i don't know what it is but we got too much of something lets see how peak plays out we should on average have about 5 systems from end of aug till 2nd week of sept if that fails you may as well write off the rest of it time is runnin out there is only about 5 good weeks left after that its downhill from there


Refer to post 3542.
3547. divdog
Funny how all those people that were ragging on IKE so much have disappeared. They were calling him downcaster and I can't even recall how many times I heard yesterday that td5 was about to blow up. Just because a low gets into the gulf does not always mean it is the next katrina. Many somebody needs to rag on some of those hypercaster and rag on ike casters.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
power even that which came has been weak and feeble struggle every step of the way 93 94 and all the others stuggle alex being the only exception and that was just before landfall something up and i don't know what it is but we got too much of something lets see how peak plays out we should on average have about 5 systems from end of aug till 2nd week of sept if that fails you may as well write off the rest of it time is runnin out there is only about 5 good weeks left after that its downhill from there


Ever heard of a period....?
me2
3550. GetReal
The blog is way slow this morning... School must be back in session across the country...

Can I get an "Oh Yeah!!!"

Please post JB's thoughts... They always interest me...
3551. tkeith
Quoting GetReal:
The blog is way slow this morning... School must be back in session across the country...

Can I get an "Oh Yeah!!!"

Please post JB's thoughts... They always interest me...


'OH YEAH"!
3552. FLdewey
Quoting divdog:
Funny how all those people that were ragging on IKE so much have disappeared. They were calling him downcaster and I can't even recall how many times I heard yesterday that td5 was about to blow up. Just because a low gets into the gulf does not always mean it is the next katrina. Many somebody needs to rag on some of those hypercaster and rag on ike casters.


They are a predictable set... most will be absent today. They will return only when the next storm to be blown out of realistic proportion arrives.

The cycle will repeat... kind of like the shampoo instructions.

doom - rinse - repeat
Quoting Hurricanes12:


Ever heard of a period....?
i dont use those things habit i have from my hacker days
sorry
Quoting GetReal:
The blog is way slow this morning... School must be back in session across the country...

Can I get an "Oh Yeah!!!"

Please post JB's thoughts... They always interest me...


My school starts in 2 weeks.
3555. divdog
Quoting weatherblog:


No one's writing off TD 5. It's still fore-casted to become a tropical storm before landfall which is very likely. It's not looking good now, but there's still a high possibility of it becoming a 50 mph storm or so.
no way there is a high chance this gets to 50mph. This thing will probably get downgraded at 10:00. Admit that td5 looks like crap and probably will for the rest of it life
I'm still around, I didn't call Ike a downcaster, I'm a kid, I thought the NHC was right with intensity, and I think this season is about to pop out a potent Cape Verde system. What does that make me? :P
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
power even that which came has been weak and feeble struggle every step of the way 93 94 and all the others stuggle alex being the only exception and that was just before landfall something up and i don't know what it is but we got too much of something lets see how peak plays out we should on average have about 5 systems from end of aug till 2nd week of sept if that fails you may as well write off the rest of it time is runnin out there is only about 5 good weeks left after that its downhill from there


Keep last year we had Ana, Bill and Claudette in two days Aug 15-17 during a below average year so it will not take much to see that, I look at between Aug 15-Oct 15 to be the Danger Zone for the Major Hurricane threat Link
Quoting IKE:
Look at the water vapor on TD5....notice how dry air has gotten into it. Chance this gets downgraded at 10 am CDST. Just my amateur opinion.....




Maybe the same problem 93L has....



Hi Ike and good morning to everyone.

I have posted a couple of times now about the inability of the systems that have spun up so far to develop into much of anything. While Alex was the obvious exception, in my posts on Monday evening I pointed out that nothwithstanding high SST, dry air, the TUTT and various and sundry ULLs have put the kabosh on anything that has come along since Alex.

I have never been bullish on this being the hyper active or way above average season from as long ago as May and while I may ultimately be proven wrong on that score we are seeing the same struggle today with TD5.

With August almost half way over this is proving to be a somewhat odd start.
Quoting sporteguy03:


Keep last year we had Ana, Bill and Claudette in two days Aug 15-17 during a below average year so it will not take much to see that, I look at between Aug 15-Oct 15 to be the Danger Zone for the Major Hurricane threat Link
i agree with ya 03 in fact thats about the only thing that will save the season if we get a rush of storms iam sayin that if the rush fails to happen then its pretty well done imo
can someone give status of storm for morning people just logging on?
IKE casters? You're famous IKE LOL!
3563. divdog
Quoting StormW:


Could be as much as the right hand tracks in the guidance package:

Do you think this will still be a TD at 10:00. Does it have any future??
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi Ike and good morning to everyone.

I have posted a couple of times now about the inability of the systems that have spun up so far to develop into much of anything. While Alex was the obvious exception, in my posts on Monday evening I pointed out that nothwithstanding high SST, dry air, the TUTT and various and sundry ULLs have put the kabosh on anything that has come along since Alex.

I have never been bullish on this being the hyper active or way above average season from as long ago as May and while I may ultimately be proven wrong on that score we are seeing the same struggle today with TD5.

With August almost half way over this is proving to be a somewhat odd start.


Again I say, that heat has to be balanced some way in the Atlantic. How does that happen? Tropical Cyclones. This season will probably not pop out 18, maybe not even 16. 15 seems reasonable at this point. But that doesn't mean we won't see potent systems this year even though we had a slow start.
3565. FLdewey
Quoting twhcracker:
can someone give status of storm for morning people just logging on?

Tis a 30mph beast.

3566. divdog
Quoting 69Viking:
IKE casters? You're famous IKE LOL!
its rag on ike casters.
3567. tkeith
Can anyone with trained eyes tell me if this image shows convection wrapping around COC?

gosh i hope it does hook east when it landfalls! I thought we would get some rain here in walton/bay county but not even really cloudy! Hope it stays smallish.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i agree with ya 03 in fact thats about the only thing that will save the season if we get a rush of storms iam sayin that if the rush fails to happen then its pretty well done imo


Oh yea, if by mid-September we're at 4-1-0 or something, something happened on the planet to not allow tropical cyclones to form at all, because that would mean every basin this year would have had a below average season. WPAC is below average, EPAC will probably end up being below average.
This is very important to consider here folks. 05L may not look very good now, but with those extremely warm waters as it approaches the coast...it could spin up quickly:

A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST BY
36-48 HOURS. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS DROP THE PRESSURE TO 986 AND
968 MB...RESPECTIVELY SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL...AND THE HWRF MODEL
IS FORECASTING THE CYCLONE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH RIGHT AT
LANDFALL.
The center appears to be farther east then the NHC thinks, much closer to the convection.
Quoting Jeff9641:


THe AFC is tough this year but I think Miami made enough acquistions to propel them to the AFC East title this year.


Go Fins!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
TD5's gaining convection, will probably get named by 5 pm.


We've heard that before...
Quoting HurricaneKyle:


Again I say, that heat has to be balanced some way in the Atlantic. How does that happen? Tropical Cyclones. This season will probably not pop out 18, maybe not even 16. 15 seems reasonable at this point. But that doesn't mean we won't see potent systems this year even though we had a slow start.


I understand all about heat and tropical cyclones. My point simply is that perhaps people need to lower their expectations that every surface low that comes along is going to spin up into something significant.

3576. tacoman
everyone is saying RIP tropical depression 5..well i would not write this off so fast..it's experiencing some dry air right now and that is supposed to let up later today...a fair amount of heavy convection is still behind the center..so with that ull getting out the picture we could still see danielle develop..if nhc thought it was a wash they sure would not be sending a recon out there and drilling operations would not be suspended...the next 36 hours will tell the tale of what happens to tropical depression 5..i still think it has a 60% chance of becoming danielle later today and still a possible cat 1 hurricane before it makes the se louisiana coast on friday...stay tuned i would not write this off gang...
Quoting divdog:
its rag on ike casters.


What's your problem? Seriously, bringing up yesterday's assaults against Ike will only make more drama on the blog. Is that what your trying to bring? If so, stop it. I value Ike's predictions and what he says with great interest, with many other members of the blog. Stop making it seem that every blogger yesterday was ragging on Ike, only a few where.
3578. Patrap
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





Early Model Wind Forecasts
Quoting HurricaneHunterGal:

That is incredible! That comes in FAST...TOO fast! wow!


Tell SC to post it in his blog!
Quoting AllStar17:
The center appears to be farther east then the NHC thinks, much closer to the convection.


Yeah,I have been staring at the visible loop trying to actually pinpoint the COC...not an easy thing to do. Maybe in an hour or so when more of the loop is under daylight...
06z continues to forecast another trough split in 120-144 hours...makes this one much more impressive.
Quoting extreme236:
This is very important to consider here folks. 05L may not look very good now, but with those extremely warm waters as it approaches the coast...it could spin up quickly:

A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST BY
36-48 HOURS. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS DROP THE PRESSURE TO 986 AND
968 MB...RESPECTIVELY SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL...AND THE HWRF MODEL
IS FORECASTING THE CYCLONE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH RIGHT AT
LANDFALL.


Yup.
Back later.
3584. divdog
Quoting StormW:


TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE SYNOPSIS AUG. 11, 2010 ISSUED 8:20 A.M.
Thanks stormw .. looks like we still need to pay attention.
Quoting kmanislander:


I understand all about heat and tropical cyclones. My point simply is that perhaps people need to lower their expectations that every surface low that comes along is going to spin up into something significant.



Your correct. I say 15-16, might lower to 14-15.
3586. GetReal


Try as I may, I can no longer find a closed LLC... IKE is right!!! This now just a very BROAD area of low pressure...
I thank I got 4 "YES'S" on posting JB. No "NO's" so far...

speak now or forever hold your peace!
Quoting TexasHurricaneExpert:
I don't even post that much on here. Don't have time to do it. I just found an interesting link about this year. Here is the link what Dr. Klotzbach said...

Link


Thought this deserved a bump as seems to have passed under the radar.


Excerpt from:

Watts Up With That?>
Commentary on puzzling things in life, nature, science, weather, climate change, technology and recent news by Anthony Watts

Guest post by: Dr. Philip Klotzbach, Research Scientist, Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University

I thought that an easy way to examine the typical progression of these seasons was to see when the 2nd hurricane formed. So far in 2010, the North Atlantic has had only one hurricane (Alex). Table 1 displays the La Niña years since 1950 along with the date of 2nd hurricane formation and the seasonal Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index for that year. ACE is defined as the sum of the square of a named storm’s maximum wind speed (in 104 knots2) divided by 10000. The 1950-2000 average of this index was 96, and for the 2010 season, we are predicting a value of 185.

Table 1: La Niña years since 1950 along with the date of 2nd hurricane formation and the seasonal ACE accumulated in each year.
Year ASO Nino 3.4 2nd Hurricane Formation Date Seasonal ACE
1995 -0.66 8/1 227
1970 -1.04 8/2 40
1956 -0.63 8/10 54
1955 -1.39 8/12 199
1971 -0.63 8/15 97
1973 -1.20 8/20 48
1950 -0.75 8/20 243
1999 -1.01 8/22 177
1998 -1.17 8/25 182
1954 -0.98 8/27 113
1975 -1.34 8/30 76
1974 -0.53 8/31 68
2007 -0.92 9/2 74
1964 -0.86 9/3 170
1961 -0.52 9/3 205
1988 -1.55 9/9 103

The average date of 2nd hurricane formation for all of these years is August 21, and you will note that five years with very high ACE values of 170 or greater did not have their 2nd hurricane formation until August 20th or later. The 2nd storm in 1961 did not form until September, and that September went on to have four major hurricanes, a record for the month. So, from a climatological perspective, it is not time to write off the TC season yet.

With regards to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, they are still running at record levels across the MDR, based on data from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. I calculated the July SST over the MDR and have plotted the timeseries from 1948-2010 below (Figure 4). July 2010’s value was at record levels, approximately 0.1°C greater than it was in 2005.
TD-5 is still having problems with dry air, you can see there is a chunk in the NW side of it. The Upper level low is moving out of the way and TD-5 is ingesting its dry air mass. Grayish looking clouds show dry air intrusion.
Right now it looks like TD5 will be Bonnie part 2. It will have an opportunity to strengthen but landfall is not too far off. Louisiana is lucky, again! :D
3592. divdog
Quoting HurricaneKyle:


What's your problem? Seriously, bringing up yesterday's assaults against Ike will only make more drama on the blog. Is that what your trying to bring? If so, stop it. I value Ike's predictions and what he says with great interest, with many other members of the blog. Stop making it seem that every blogger yesterday was ragging on Ike, only a few where.
I have no problem with you yet. There were plenty of ike casters. Did I ever mention you ?? I can have fun at the blogs expense if I want. You are the only one who seems to have a problem with the new monikor. Lighten up frances.
3593. Jax82
Some people are 'disappointed' in the way this storm has dissippated? I'll take a boring system in the gulf of mexico any day (especially going over the oil spill). I dont wish for any storm to 'blow up' and wreck havoc on peoples lives. I live at the beach and though i love tropical weather i'll never wishcast a storm mine or anyone elses way.

Looks like the NHC was right on with this one as well. I dont know what models they use, but i think at one point yesterday 3 models said 94L would get to hurricane strength and a lot of people believed it, not the NHC. Should tell you something.
Quoting StormChaser81:
TD-5 is still having problems with dry air, you can see there is a chunk in the NW side of it. The Upper level low is moving out of the way and TD-5 is ingesting its dry air mass. Grayish looking clouds show dry air intrusion.



Funny! That doesn't look like TD5 to me!
Convection is increasing just west of Fort Myers, FL. A possible low level spiral band is evident to the south, stretching towards the west of Key West, FL. ULL is moving quickly away, perhaps stealing some of the moisture and thunderstorm energy associated with TD5, but degeneration towaards a broad low is certainly possible given that it has no tight surface circulation evident at the 11am EDT advisory.
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Dissapating.


Incorrect.
Quoting divdog:
I have no problem with you yet. There were plenty of ike casters. Did I ever mention you ?? I can have fun at the blogs expense if I want. You are the only one who seems to have a problem with the new monikor. Lighten up frances.


Actually no you can't have fun at the blog's expense as it could very well get you banned.
Where are the people who were Calling this a Hurricane?

Still Predicting a CAT 3?

3599. divdog
Quoting extreme236:


Actually no you can't have fun at the blog's expense as it could very well get you banned.
never been banned
Lighten up frances



Said the "Big Toe"....
3601. divdog
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Funny! That doesn't look like TD5 to me!
looks like most of the td's this season. terrible
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I thank I got 4 "YES'S" on posting JB. No "NO's" so far...

speak now or forever hold your peace!


Yes, post away! I love reading different opinions of forecasters!
93L on the verge of becoming a TD. T-numbers are 1.5 from both agencies.
Quoting divdog:
I have no problem with you yet. There were plenty of ike casters. Did I ever mention you ?? I can have fun at the blogs expense if I want. You are the only one who seems to have a problem with the new monikor. Lighten up frances.


fine.
4 yes's, 0 no's....


JB alert...

Hide the women and children...
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Funny! That doesn't look like TD5 to me!


Might not be at 11am with how disorganized it is on satellite and radar.

But convection has been on the increase lately.
Crazy question please, I am a newbie so please be gentle, I read somewhere about a DR. @ MIT doing some reserch on oil slowing down tropical systems is there any truth to this and is it possible that this is whats going on in the GOM this year? Thanks
Quoting extreme236:
93L on the verge of becoming a TD. T-numbers are 1.5 from both agencies.


They could classify it at 11:00 if they wanted.
Quoting extreme236:
93L on the verge of becoming a TD. T-numbers are 1.5 from both agencies.


we'll see. I doubt it though, judging by its current look.

Whether it is a weak TD or a broad area of low pressure, the story doesn't change that in 36-48 hours the upper level winds will be very favorable along with 31C waters.
3612. tacoman
sammy no one predicted this a cat 3 that i know...i did predict a cat 1 before it comes ashore in se la...only because of tyhe sst 88-90 degress if the dry air lets up could lead to strengthing...dont be so quick to write off tropical depression 5...i still say it has a 60% chance of becoming tropical storm danielle..so i would not write it off the nhc is sure worried sending a recon plane into it...
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I thank I got 4 "YES'S" on posting JB. No "NO's" so far...

speak now or forever hold your peace!
Why dispense for free what he gets paid for else-were? I thought you were a fan of his. Give a good teaser and a link and at least he will get credit for hits. I'm no fan but folks are free and easy with copyright stuff all over the web but especially here.
3614. divdog
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
4 yes's, 0 no's....


JB alert...

Hide the women and children...
bring it on
Quoting tacoman:
everyone is saying RIP tropical depression 5..well i would not write this off so fast..it's experiencing some dry air right now and that is supposed to let up later today...a fair amount of heavy convection is still behind the center..so with that ull getting out the picture we could still see danielle develop..if nhc thought it was a wash they sure would not be sending a recon out there and drilling operations would not be suspended...the next 36 hours will tell the tale of what happens to tropical depression 5..i still think it has a 60% chance of becoming danielle later today and still a possible cat 1 hurricane before it makes the se louisiana coast on friday...stay tuned i would not write this off gang...


Someone Forgot to Take His Meds!!!!
This was lifted from JB's blog this morning. He talks about TD5 as well.


"National Wildlife Federation chief Larry Schweiger referred to the skeptics as enemies and that he hoped the alarmists would outlive the bastards."


Ya'll wanna see the rest?

Warning! It's not for the faint of heart!


Quoting PensacolaDoug:
4 yes's, 0 no's....


JB alert...

Hide the women and children...


Jeez. Just post it already so we can get on with it. The reason you are not getting any no's is because those of us who don't want to read it can just skip over it!
Almost looks as if the coc may wont to reform near the convection off Tampa and Fort Myers.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Why dispense for free what he gets paid for else-were? I thought you were a fan of his. Give a good teaser and a link and at least he will get credit for hits. I'm no fan but folks are free and easy with copyright stuff all over the web but especially here.



Link won't work...
Well, it appears that the ULL is now pulling the circulation apart again, with wind shear increased to 20 kts on the north side, just as the NHC predicted.

Lesson learned: this is why they are the experts and we are just a bunch of internet speculators.
3621. IKE
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi Ike and good morning to everyone.

I have posted a couple of times now about the inability of the systems that have spun up so far to develop into much of anything. While Alex was the obvious exception, in my posts on Monday evening I pointed out that nothwithstanding high SST, dry air, the TUTT and various and sundry ULLs have put the kabosh on anything that has come along since Alex.

I have never been bullish on this being the hyper active or way above average season from as long ago as May and while I may ultimately be proven wrong on that score we are seeing the same struggle today with TD5.

With August almost half way over this is proving to be a somewhat odd start.


Yeah...I've read some of your thoughts the other evening. Hard to go against your thinking.
3622. divdog
Quoting Jeff9641:
Almost looks as if the coc may wont to reform near the convection off Tampa and Fort Myers.
Quoting miamiamiga:


Jeez. Just post it already so we can get on with it. The reason you are not getting any no's is because those of us who don't want to read it can just skip over it!
wow .. you havin a bad mornin
A large and vigorous circulation is evident with a wave still over Africa near 0-10 degrees west, and 10-20 degree north. Very favorable conditions for this wave to develop into the storm we have been waiting for to kick start the Cape Verde Season, for reasons StormW, and HurricaneKyle have mentioned today and yesterday. This will be the ignition we have all been waiting for.
coc or llc looks to be at about 87w 27.5n. jmo. i am a armature at best:)maybe the center will jump around today as it did yesterday:)
3625. divdog
Quoting psuweathernewbie:
A large and vigorous circulation is evident with a wave still over Africa near 0-10 degrees west, and 10-20 degree north. Very favorable conditions for this wave to develop into the storm we have been waiting for to kick start the Cape Verde Season, for reasons StormW, and HurricaneKyle have mentioned today and yesterday. This will be the ignition we have all been waiting for.
how many times have i heard that in the past few days
Quoting StormChaser81:


Might not be at 11am with how disorganized it is on satellite and radar.

But convection has been on the increase lately.



You posted the wrong pic...Unless TD5 moved into the Sea of Japan!
Quoting Jeff9641:
Almost looks as if the coc may wont to reform near the convection off Tampa and Fort Myers.


I'm wondering about that happening too.
and storms do seem to be building around llc or coc. any thoughts?
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Link won't work...


What browser?
Quoting extreme236:


Incorrect.


Incorrect...and spelled incorrectly. One word posts can surely do better percentage wise :-)
3633. scott39
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Dissapating.
wrong
Quoting 69Viking:


I'm wondering about that happening too.
nope
3635. divdog
Quoting sarahjola:
and storms do seem to be building around llc or coc. any thoughts?
center may try to reform under that big ball of convection if it persists according to some in here. I am no expert but have seen that happen before.
Quoting 69Viking:


I'm wondering about that happening too.


The circulation looks like on big goose egg. Almost more of a open trough axis now.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



You posted the wrong pic...Unless TD5 moved into the Sea of Japan!


Check it out NHC AL05 floater is screwed up.

NHC
Extreme, the question is, does it last long enough in the GOM to take advantage of these conditions. It seems to be pretty close to FL if one is watching the cluster of strong thunderstorms west of FL, or watching what the ULL pulled with it towards LA.
3639. scott39
TD5 is not dying! NHC has it making landfall as a weak TS!
Quoting StormChaser81:


Check it out NHC AL05 floater is screwed up.

NHC


I think its only for Water Vapor though. Im sure they will fix it soon
What is the expectation of the tropical wave to the east of the Leeward Islands as to its track and possible development?
Quoting HurricaneHunterGal:


I think its only for Water Vapor and visible though. Im sure they will fix it soon

No, looks like WV, visible and rainbow are screwed up.
3643. scott39
TD5 is building convection now. I will go with the NHC and StormW as a weak to moderate TS at landfall.

Quoting HurricaneHunterGal:


I think its only for Water Vapor and visible though. Im sure they will fix it soon


Looks to only be the last frame on the WV.
3645. IKE
Quoting scott39:
TD5 is not dying! NHC has it making landfall as a weak TS!


From their latest advisory....2 hours ago...

"SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS LOST
SOME ORGANIZATION AND COULD BE DEGENERATING INTO A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE."

Are the HH going back into TD5 today? If so when?
3647. ACEhigh
Bastardi's rants seem to grow more strident and puerile by the minute. The guy is a decent tropical forecaster with some interesting and often contrarian takes on tropical weather who has a knack for selling himself. He should stick to that. His right wing political ravings make him sound like a less flabby Beck.
i still think the coc or llc looks to be at about 87w 27.5n. jmo. i am a armature at best:)maybe the center will jump around today as it did yesterday:)
Quoting psuweathernewbie:
Extreme, the question is, does it last long enough in the GOM to take advantage of these conditions. It seems to be pretty close to FL if one is watching the cluster of strong thunderstorms west of FL, or watching what the ULL pulled with it towards LA.


Many scenarios are possible. If this does degenerate into a broad low, it could easily regenerate tonight as the conditions improve dramatically. Still a good shot at seeing Danielle from this.
Now in the Gulf! Playing for limited engagement! "Bonnie 2, Bonnie goes to New Orleans Again!" This time with more thunderstorms!
Quoting LoneStarWeather:

No, looks like WV, visible and rainbow are screwed up.


Whoa yeah, random shot of the Pacific in the Rainbow loop. hah!
Mostly lurking this morning. Good morning all!

Noticing the mid level circulation perhaps working down due to persistence of convection off the coast of Port Charlotte/Venice, FL.

Quoting Jeff9641:


I agree IKE something is missing so far this year. I really tought TD 5 would be much more organized this morning and it isn't at all.


The ULL death squad is in full force...
Im not trying to be a wishcaster, but does it seem like some RI is occuring right now. Its going to be an interesting day to say the least.
The way I see it: most--and note I say most--credible, reputable, and professional TC experts are still calling for a far higher than average season. That means people who've studied this stuff in great detail for a long time--often decades--have crunched the numbers and studied the data and sniffed the breezes and put every possible piece of information into the hopper, and have come to the conclusion that, for all intents and purposes, the season hasn't truly gotten underway (or is just starting)--and when it does, look out.

Meanwhile, regular folks on this blog--teachers, construction workers, retired postal clerks, food service types, etc.--who have varying levels of interest in tropical weather, but zero to little in the way of formal and intense training, look at a season that, so far, hasn't lived up to their expectations, and they post one comment after another here about how the season is bust, and they're disappointed, and the professionals have all set unrealistically high numbers, and so on and so forth, ad infinitum, ad nauseum, world without end, amen.

So lemme ask you: who are you gonna believe? The science expert who lives and breathes tropical weather every waking moment of every waking day, or Jim Bob the tire mechanic who logs onto the site between evening beers, and whose only real TC experience is living next door to a guy whose aunt used to be married to a man who knew somebody who says they think they went through Camille?

My numbers stand: 20/12/6. Until/unless I see something otherwise to make me lower those numbers--such as, say, we're only up to 5-1-0 by the 10th of September--I'm not changing them.
I had posted my predictions for this season in early May. This was based on the (humor) belief that tropical storms live up or down to their names... so their pathology can be predicted by those names.

So far this season, it looks like the score for this method is going to be 2-2-0.

Colin: Colin will spin up at sea, then die out within a day or so. Nobody wants to put up plywood on their windows with spray paint saying "go away Colin". Besides, nobody wants to stand on a beach somewhere waiting for "colin". It wouldn't look good in newspaper headlines either. Colin will go away quickly, un-noticed.

Danielle: Danielle will be a strong tropical storm, bringing much needed rains north through Alabama and Western Florida. Danielle's are nice typically, so there will be no bluster or damage in her wake.


My prediction for the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season based upon the names of the storms. 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes. I'm sticking with this prognosis.
I agree extreme. TD5 has alot going for it if it can wait another 36-48 hours over water. What are your thoughts on that large circulation accompaning a tropical wave at 0-10W and 10-20N?
94l looks and has the characteristics of a std,lol...pretty choppy in the gom(looking out my window at it right now),lots of white caps winds ese at 15-25,gusting to around 30mph!!!,looks like the mlc got left behind in the convection off swfl..
3659. scott39
Quoting IKE:


From their latest advisory....2 hours ago...

"SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS LOST
SOME ORGANIZATION AND COULD BE DEGENERATING INTO A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE."

Will see! There are a few more factors before landfall, so im sticking with a weak to moderate TS.
Quoting Bigguy675:
What is the expectation of the tropical wave to the east of the Leeward Islands as to its track and possible development?


It lost most of its convection last nigth but is popping up again.
3663. tkeith
Quoting HappyBirthdayJFV:
Good morning, all! Hey gang, it's my birthday today, ^_^.
Happy Birthday...
Quoting thermoclined:
nope


And you're welcome to your opinion just as I or anyone else can express their own opinion. In the end we'll follow the dotted line and all know what exactly happened with this system!
Quoting psuweathernewbie:
I agree extreme. TD5 has alot going for it if it can wait another 36-48 hours over water. What are your thoughts on that large circulation accompaning a tropical wave at 0-10W and 10-20N?


Could be a possible player in a few days. We'll have to see exactly where it emerges and how it looks afterwards.
The mid level circulation does look to be off the West Coast of FL this morning with persistent convection present.
3667. quante
Quoting cheetaking:
Well, it appears that the ULL is now pulling the circulation apart again, with wind shear increased to 20 kts on the north side, just as the NHC predicted.

Lesson learned: this is why they are the experts and we are just a bunch of internet speculators.


BINGO
Quoting IKE:


From their latest advisory....2 hours ago...

"SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS LOST
SOME ORGANIZATION AND COULD BE DEGENERATING INTO A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE."



I will give TD5 some little credit, it looks more impressive than 2 hours ago.
Quoting IKE:


From their latest advisory....2 hours ago...

"SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS LOST
SOME ORGANIZATION AND COULD BE DEGENERATING INTO A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE."



But conditions are going to be favorable today, the ULL low has moved out of the way, low shear, hot ssts, and dry air is not present.
Good Morning! Storm, got any brainstorm this AM?
Quoting sarahjola:
i still think the coc or llc looks to be at about 87w 27.5n. jmo. i am a armature at best:)maybe the center will jump around today as it did yesterday:)
i don't see where some are saying the llc is by w. florida. can someone give lat/lon? thanks in advance:)
3673. GetReal


There is no spiral banding present, and NO CURVATURE of the thunderstorms towards the SW, which would indicate a closed circulation... Very well may no longer be a TD... It has the appearance of an open wave, IMO...
3674. tacoman
ike i disagree with you but i respect your opinion..
Quoting StormChaser81:


Might not be at 11am with how disorganized it is on satellite and radar.

But convection has been on the increase lately.


Mornin SC! Nice posts yesterday...
Neo, nice summary - I agree! You mean 10th August right?

Regarding TD5 I'll quote Dr M: A subtropical storm typically has a large, cloud free center of circulation, with very heavy thunderstorm activity in a band removed at least 100 miles from the center.

Describes TD5 to a T

3660. HappyBirthdayJFV
This comment has been removed for violating the Community Standards.



LOL

3678. Jax82
If your prediction for the hurricane season comes out to be 100% true what do you win? Absolutely nothing. Maybe a virtual pat on the back. At the end of the season it doesnt matter how many we had, its how many we had that affected human lives and how good we were at forecasting the storms that formed.
Now you have to watch for the eastern sheer on the system

Quoting tropicfreak:


But conditions are going to be favorable today, the ULL low has moved out of the way, low shear, hot ssts, and dry air is not present.
Here is our local Doppler Radar out of Fort Myers. Put it on a loop and it shows all the convection is moving NNE, there is zero evidence of any type of circulation forming in this convection, at least for the time being.

Link
Quoting tatoprweather:


It lost most of its convection last nigth but is popping up again.
Quoting tatoprweather:


It lost most of its convection last nigth but is popping up again.
Tatop....thanks for the reply. Not to sound grumpy but was wondering if anyone was going to comment. I have posted questions before but don't ever seem to get acknowledged.

To ask one more question, I would presume that the precipitation will pick back up again. But has Dr. M or Storm commented on this wave as either sliding through in the Caribbean into the Gulf. From the maps, it looks like its still quite low. Just wondered if the spin will start making it travel more NW or WNW sooner or perhaps later/
3682. MahFL
I was suprised they named 5 as a TD it looked subtropical to me.
Just crazy

Quoting GetReal:


There is no spiral banding present, and NO CURVATURE of the thunderstorms towards the SW, south which would indicate a closed circulation... Very well may no longer be a TD...


This is no longer the area to look at for future development. The MLC west of Ft. Myers is sustaining convection with a low level spiral band on the southern side of the circulation with convection persisting in this area.
Howdy all. Beautiful sunny and not quite as hot morning here on the beach
3687. FLdewey
Huricane Hunters are going to use their Cessna 172 to recon this morning.
Quoting TexasGulf:
I had posted my predictions for this season in early May. This was based on the (humor) belief that tropical storms live up or down to their names... so their pathology can be predicted by those names.

So far this season, it looks like the score for this method is going to be 2-2-0.

Colin: Colin will spin up at sea, then die out within a day or so. Nobody wants to put up plywood on their windows with spray paint saying "go away Colin". Besides, nobody wants to stand on a beach somewhere waiting for "colin". It wouldn't look good in newspaper headlines either. Colin will go away quickly, un-noticed.

Danielle: Danielle will be a strong tropical storm, bringing much needed rains north through Alabama and Western Florida. Danielle's are nice typically, so there will be no bluster or damage in her wake.


My prediction for the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season based upon the names of the storms. 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes. I'm sticking with this prognosis.


You should post the entire list to your blog, so we can check up on it at the end of the season, and see how well you did. ;)
3690. SLU
Well at the risk of being called a downcaster, I don't believe TD #5 meets the criteria to classify it as a TD at present. The system looks very broad and ill defined. It looks more like a system that is trying to form rather than one that has already formed.

It's also quite surprising how these systems have really struggled to develop so for this year.

3691. tacoman
get real are you for real....you better take another look..
3692. calder
Quoting tropicfreak:


But conditions are going to be favorable today, the ULL low has moved out of the way, low shear, hot ssts, and dry air is not present.


i beg to differ:

TD5 not looking very good right now. Divergent locations and characterization from TAFB and SAB:

AL 05 201008111145 DVTS 2680N 8510W TAFB 1520 ///// CSC DT = 1.5 BASED ON 0.2 BANDING. NLINEMET= 1.0 PAT=
AL 05 201008111145 DVTS 2810N 8520W SAB TROF DT=0.0 BO CBND MET=0.0 PT=0.0 FTBO DT PA=60 NMI


GHCC is in rapid scan loop

NHC could downgrade or keep alive on the next advisory. My opinion is keep alive since they do not want to "windshield wiper" if convection were to return this afternoon. Something like blah blah blah open trof blah blah blah recon this afternoon to confirm blah blah blah......
My High Tech Hurricane Tracking Equipment in my office.

1970 Hurricane Tracking Chart with two colors of pins included. You can see I mean business when I pulled out the yellow pin and placed it where TD-5 is located. The red one is for hurricanes and there better not be two storms because I only have one red.

I hate 93L. I don't want to hear anymore about it.
Quoting efallon28:
Here is our local Doppler Radar out of Fort Myers. Put it on a loop and it shows all the convection is moving NNE, there is zero evidence of any type of circulation forming in this convection, at least for the time being.

Link
correct
3688.

Lets look at this here:
1. What I said earlier is true.
2. Birthdays are no exemption from anything. Everyone has one. If you want to avoid drama or stress, don't cause it.
3. Nothing personal, but half the drama on this blog is directly related to you, or something you've said. I for one am tired of all the drama, and don't follow the blog as much because of it.
3698. tkeith
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
TD5 not looking very good right now. Divergent locations and characterization from TAFB and SAB:

AL 05 201008111145 DVTS 2680N 8510W TAFB 1520 ///// CSC DT = 1.5 BASED ON 0.2 BANDING. NLINEMET= 1.0 PAT=
AL 05 201008111145 DVTS 2810N 8520W SAB TROF DT=0.0 BO CBND MET=0.0 PT=0.0 FTBO DT PA=60 NMI


GHCC is in rapid scan loop

NHC could downgrade or keep alive on the next advisory. My opinion is keep alive since they do not want to "windshield wiper" if convection were to return this afternoon. Something like blah blah blah open trof blah blah blah recon this afternoon to confirm blah blah blah......
a very reasonable assessment...
3699. CaneBob
My opinion is that the NHC will upgrade the percentage on the tropical wave now at 55W 12N to at least 20% and perhaps 30% of development in the next report. System looks like it is developing circulation and that it will maintain a West to West Northwest path for the next few days.
Quoting tkeith:
a very reasonable assessment...


Agreed.
Hardcore - amazing map - what if it did loop back and reform?
3702. scott39
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
Just crazy

weatherguy03 said that was an indication of a stall right before landfall. TD5 is down but not out.
Quoting sailfish01:
Hardcore - amazing map - what if it did loop back and reform?


Some models are actually showing that, the GFS and the 12z ECMWF for example
Quoting FLdewey:
Huricane Hunters are going to use their Cessna 172 to recon this morning.
All right!!! I can fly a C172. Nice little airplane. But in that thing it could be quite bumpy.
Quoting StormChaser81:
My High Tech Hurricane Tracking Equipment in my office.

1970 Hurricane Tracking Chart with two colors of pins included. You can see I mean business when I pulled out the yellow pin and placed it where TD-5 is located. The red one is for hurricanes and there better not be two storms because I only have one red.



Ok, this is hysterical! hahaha!
3707. GetReal
Quoting tacoman:
get real are you for real....you better take another look..


I have... Have you??? There is no evidence of a circulation on the radar loops of the convection over the northern GOM...
Quoting Bigguy675:
Tatop....thanks for the reply. Not to sound grumpy but was wondering if anyone was going to comment. I have posted questions before but don't ever seem to get acknowledged.

To ask one more question, I would presume that the precipitation will pick back up again. But has Dr. M or Storm commented on this wave as either sliding through in the Caribbean into the Gulf. From the maps, it looks like its still quite low. Just wondered if the spin will start making it travel more NW or WNW sooner or perhaps later/


everybody's attention is with TD#5; but there are a few of us that live in the islands cheching this system. Regarding track what I have received is that they are putting this thing going from northeast PR to south of Hispaniola. everybody is saying it will develop slowly. stay tuned...
Quoting FLdewey:
Huricane Hunters are going to use their Cessna 172 to recon this morning.
LOL

Actually the 172 is at the Videllia Onion Festival/Air Show. The 150 is tasked to fly this morning.
3710. calder
Quoting btwntx08:
i see the downcaster ike in here trying to tell us its dying and scare us nice try


I think many will agree that Ike's opinions carry a lot of standing on this blog
3711. scott39
NHC also mentioned a possible stall with TD5.
3712. tkeith
Quoting Baybuddy:
LOL

Actually the 172 is at the Videllia Onion Festival/Air Show. The 150 is tasked to fly this morning.
the one with the hand held ananometer?
Quoting btwntx08:
i see the downcaster ike in here trying to tell us its dying and scare us nice try
if he's correct, why would that scare you?
Quoting CaneBob:
My opinion is that the NHC will upgrade the percentage on the tropical wave now at 55W 12N to at least 20% and perhaps 30% of development in the next report. System looks like it is developing circulation and that it will maintain a West to West Northwest path for the next few days.
Thank you for the information.
Quoting thermoclined:
correct


No, there is a MLC off the west coast of Florida where convection is persisting as well as a low level spiral band/outflow channel to the south of the circulation. Also therer is definitely upper level anticyclonic flow evident over this area.
3718. FLdewey
Quoting Baybuddy:
LOL

Actually the 172 is at the Videllia Onion Festival/Air Show. The 150 is tasked to fly this morning.


LOL!

I'd like to see a 150 with a radome.
3719. scott39
StormW you on?
3720. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
TD5 not looking very good right now. Divergent locations and characterization from TAFB and SAB:

AL 05 201008111145 DVTS 2680N 8510W TAFB 1520 ///// CSC DT = 1.5 BASED ON 0.2 BANDING. NLINEMET= 1.0 PAT=
AL 05 201008111145 DVTS 2810N 8520W SAB TROF DT=0.0 BO CBND MET=0.0 PT=0.0 FTBO DT PA=60 NMI


GHCC is in rapid scan loop

NHC could downgrade or keep alive on the next advisory. My opinion is keep alive since they do not want to "windshield wiper" if convection were to return this afternoon. Something like blah blah blah open trof blah blah blah recon this afternoon to confirm blah blah blah......


You're probably right. They may hang on to it until later today.

Then again...they may not.

For what it's worth, the non-tropical NAM model has dropped TD5....

Quoting psuweathernewbie:


No, there is a MLC off the west coast of Florida where convection is persisting as well as a low level spiral band/outflow channel to the south of the circulation. Also therer is definitely upper level anticyclonic flow evident over this area.
Come on the depression looks like crap attm. Way too broad!
3722. tkeith
Quoting btwntx08:
i see the downcaster ike in here trying to tell us its dying and scare us nice try
just an observation, but...life is much more enjoyable without carrying a chip on ones shoulder...

those things can get very heavy :)
Quoting tatoprweather:


everybody's attention is with TD#5; but there are a few of us that live in the islands cheching this system. Regarding track what I have received is that they are putting this thing going from northeast PR to south of Hispaniola. everybody is saying it will develop slowly. stay tuned...
Thanks Tatop.
now for my forecast for td 5 i do NOT see this opening up cause what is happening right now and a possible stall may happen and also low shear and less dry will help it so im sticking with my forecast from last night 70 mph ts to 75 mph hurricane
Quoting Baybuddy:
LOL

Actually the 172 is at the Videllia Onion Festival/Air Show. The 150 is tasked to fly this morning.


Many years ago, once and only once, did I fly a 150 right on the edge of a "small," "growing," cumulus cloud...

That is one lesson I will never forget...

It was good for about a 1.6g excursion for about a second and a half...

v/r

Jon
Quoting tkeith:
just an observation, but...life is much more enjoyable without carrying a chip on ones shoulder...

those things can get very heavy :)
tkeith, hard to talk sense to the senseless.
3727. CaneBob
Quoting CaneBob:
My opinion is that the NHC will upgrade the percentage on the tropical wave now at 55W 12N to at least 20% and perhaps 30% of development in the next report. System looks like it is developing circulation and that it will maintain a West to West Northwest path for the next few days.


Should also mote that the wind shear ahead of theis tropical wave is very modest, that with the higher SST in the Caribbean could be enough fuel to fire up the system.

3728. scott39
Quoting IKE:


You're probably right. They may hang on to it until later today.

Then again...they may not.

For what it's worth, the non-tropical NAM model has dropped TD5....

Hey Ike, Maybe Im looking at that map wrong, but isnt that red dot something S of Miss/AL?
3729. WxLogic
I've created a small illustration to show where the broad Low pressure (TD5) is and a disturbance rotation around it enhancing convection on the SW FL area. You can also see the outflow propagating NE from the W FL coast to the E FL coast. Which is also indicative of dry air.



Interesting enough... most of the 850MB to 700MB VORT exist across the SW FL region as of 06Z:


Quoting tkeith:
the one with the hand held ananometer?

No the one where if the pilots toupe blows off he's in a dive and should level off.
3731. tkeith
Quoting msgambler:
tkeith, hard to talk sense to the senseless.
oh well...worth a try :)
3733. tkeith
Quoting Baybuddy:

No the one where if the pilots toupe blows off he's in a dive and should level off.
sounds like some of my pilot friends you're talkin about :)
Quoting thermoclined:
Come on the depression looks like crap attm. Way too broad!


I agree, it does look like crap, because there is no LLC. So yes it looks like crap, but on radar a clear MLC is present. Which means this is not done yet.
Quoting Eagle101:


Many years ago, once and only once, did I fly a 150 right on the edge of a "small," "growing," cumulus cloud...

That is one lesson I will never forget...

It was good for about a 1.6g excursion for about a second and a half...

v/r

Jon
My first lessons were in a 150. At 6'2" with size 12 feet i decided I should either propose to my instructor of find a bigger plane.
3736. FLdewey
Quoting Eagle101:


Many years ago, once and only once, did I fly a 150 right on the edge of a "small," "growing," cumulus cloud...

That is one lesson I will never forget...

It was good for about a 1.6g excursion for about a second and a half...

v/r

Jon

Ouch I bet... wouldn't like to do that in a 150. I was shaken around by some sea breeze development in a Cherokee near Daytona Beach one summer afternoon. It was my first "kiss the ground" landing. ;-)
3737. IKE
Quoting scott39:
Hey Ike, Maybe Im looking at that map wrong, but isnt that red dot something S of Miss/AL?


Just looks like a small area of rain to me.
Quoting psuweathernewbie:


I agree, it does look like crap, because there is no LLC. So yes it looks like crap, but on radar a clear MLC is present. Which means this is not done yet.
Ok. Time will tell.
3739. FLdewey
Quoting Baybuddy:
My first lessons were in a 150. At 6'2" with size 12 feet i decided I should either propose to my instructor of find a bigger plane.

LMAO!
Quoting btwntx08:
now for my forecast for td 5 i do NOT see this opening up cause what is happening right now and a possible stall may happen and also low shear and less dry will help it so im sticking with my forecast from last night 70 mph ts to 75 mph hurricane
i agree! its stalling:)why would it be stalling and what direction do you see it going once it starts moving again? tia:)
Quoting Baybuddy:
My first lessons were in a 150. At 6'2" with size 12 feet i decided I should either propose to my instructor of find a bigger plane.


They are quite cozy...so to speak...but good for some solo "fun."

v/r

Jon
Quoting Baybuddy:

No the one where if the pilots toupe blows off he's in a dive and should level off.


That would be a J-3 Cub, Piper. You can fly with the doors open. On a windy day, you can even fly backwards. Seen it done on a windy fall day in 1975, "Shorty" Graves, proprietor and flight instructor, Brownsburg airport (grass strip) Brownsburg, Indiana. I think there is a shopping center there now. Would be fun in TD 5, If you missed something, you could fly backwards and do it again.
oh my look at this favorable conditons rubs it on him:
Just a wait And see with TD5, right now it looks bad but the NHC made note of how conditions appear favorable just before landfall.
Quoting psuweathernewbie:


I agree, it does look like crap, because there is no LLC. So yes it looks like crap, but on radar a clear MLC is present. Which means this is not done yet.


Looking more like a subtropical system. The system is very elongated, the heavy weather is well removed (mostly to the east) of the apparent center.
Quoting psuweathernewbie:


I agree, it does look like crap, because there is no LLC. So yes it looks like crap, but on radar a clear MLC is present. Which means this is not done yet.

that langauge isnt allowed in here plz remove or the admin will
Quoting NHCstevehayward:
Good Morning everyone!!


Morning! :)
Quoting KanKunKid:


That would be a J-3 Cub, Piper. You can fly with the doors open. On a windy day, you can even fly backwards. Seen it done on a windy fall day in 1975, "Shorty" Graves, proprietor and flight instructor, Brownsburg airport (grass strip) Brownsburg, Indiana. I think there is a shopping center there now. Would be fun in TD 5, If you missed something, you could fly backwards and do it again.


There is a vid on youtube showing a bush pilot landing on a high ridge and actually rolling down the face to get off... those guys have wings!
3755. scott39
Goodmorning StormW, How are ya?
3756. Asta
Good Morning Storm.. What are your thoughts on the State of the Gulf ??
Quoting NHCstevehayward:
Good Morning everyone!!


Morning Steve. Do you see Tampa Bay getting much rain today?
3763. IKE
3764. skook
Russian wildfires raise Chernobyl radiation fears

MOSCOW – Russian emergency workers have increased forest patrols in a western region contaminated by the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear disaster, trying to prevent wildfires that could spread harmful radiation, officials said Wednesday.

If you would like to read more visit, http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100811/ap_on_re_eu/eu_russia_fires


With all the heat and the smog now invading western Russia and other areas, this situation could come worst if radiation could be spread again by the winds.
3766. scott39
Quoting StormW:


I'm good! You?
Doing good.
Quoting Eagle101:


Many years ago, once and only once, did I fly a 150 right on the edge of a "small," "growing," cumulus cloud...

That is one lesson I will never forget...

It was good for about a 1.6g excursion for about a second and a half...

v/r

Jon


Wow... would you do it again? When I win the lottery I would like a Mooney.
if the center doesn't try to reform in the actual convection, you can almost write this off i think

2 storms enter the gulf, 2 storms failed.. sounds good to me

but really.. what are the chances of that?
Did someone turn a kindergarten class loose in here today?
3775. Asta
Quoting StormW:


TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE SYNOPSIS AUG. 11, 2010 ISSUED 8:20 A.M.

Thanks! Excellent as always...
3777. scott39
Quoting StormW:


TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE SYNOPSIS AUG. 11, 2010 ISSUED 8:20 A.M.
Your explanations are great. Thank you, StormW
Storm,

What are your thoughts of TD5 circling back for a reformation or on this mid level circulation that has been reported off the FL coast?
3779. tkeith
Quoting rossclick:
if the center doesn't try to reform in the actual convection, you can almost write this off i think

2 storms enter the gulf, 2 storms failed.. sounds good to me

but really.. what are the chances of that?


I think all that oilspill business was just a cover for CycloneBuster to install his tunnels...that's the only explaination I can think of for this to happen...
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
Storm,

What are your thoughts of TD5 circling back for a reformation or on this mid level circulation that has been reported off the FL coast?


Read his synopsis. He's posted it about 5 times now.
3784. flsky
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Quoting Kristina40:
Did someone turn a kindergarten class loose in here today?

I think so.

On another note, looks like Tampa has a rainy day ahead

Quoting rossclick:
if the center doesn't try to reform in the actual convection, you can almost write this off i think

2 storms enter the gulf, 2 storms failed.. sounds good to me

but really.. what are the chances of that?


actually what about Alex that storm certainly was not a failed store and it was in the gulf of Mexico
3788. FLdewey
Quoting Kristina40:
Did someone turn a kindergarten class loose in here today?

Just the same old drop out...
3789. IKE
...LARGE DEPRESSION REMAINS DISORGANIZED...
11:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 11
Location: 27.8N 86.8W
Max sustained: 30 mph
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb


BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2010

...LARGE DEPRESSION REMAINS DISORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 86.8W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
Quoting rossclick:
if the center doesn't try to reform in the actual convection, you can almost write this off i think

2 storms enter the gulf, 2 storms failed.. sounds good to me

but really.. what are the chances of that?

alex was in the gom it didnt fail oops
Quoting StormW:


TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE SYNOPSIS AUG. 11, 2010 ISSUED 8:20 A.M.

thanks for the informative update! Gotta love that dry air! :)
TD 5 might be a nothingburger but I'll sure take the nice breezes that are blowing in off the Gulf today.
3793. IKE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2010

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION REMAINS VERY LARGE AND ELONGATED.
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE DEPRESSION BUT REMAIN LIMITED NEAR THE CENTER. IT APPEARS
THAT THE CENTER...SUCH AS IT IS...REFORMED OVERNIGHT TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES. A MEAN CENTER OF THE OVERALL
SYSTEM RATHER THAN A WIND CENTER WAS USED FOR THE ADVISORY
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS LOWERED TO 25 KT THIS
MORNING...AND THESE WINDS ARE LIMITED TO A FEW RAIN BANDS IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

DUE TO THE POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 305/10. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
HAS NOT CHANGED THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES TO INDICATE A NORTHWEST
MOTION AROUND THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTH AND WEAKEN...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND
THEN NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT IS A LITTLE FASTER DUE TO THE UPDATED INITIAL
POSITION.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...THE SPRAWLING STRUCTURE OF THE
DEPRESSION SUGGESTS THAT ANY INTENSIFICATION WOULD BE SLOW. IN
ADDITION...THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOW HAVE LESS TIME OVER WATER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AS A RESULT...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS
LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS STILL A LITTLE ABOVE
THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE...THE INITIALIZATION OF THESE MODELS IS UNLIKELY TO
ACCURATELY REFLECT THE CURRENT CYCLONE STRUCTURE.

ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF WEAK TROPICAL
CYCLONES SINCE MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER IS TYPICALLY WELL
REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. THIS IS CERTAINLY THE CASE WITH THIS
DEPRESSION. IF THE DEPRESSION SLOWS DOWN AS FORECAST AFTER
LANDFALL...HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1500Z 27.8N 86.8W 25 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 28.6N 88.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 29.6N 89.4W 35 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 30.4N 90.1W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 13/1200Z 31.2N 90.2W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 14/1200Z 32.6N 89.3W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 15/1200Z 34.0N 87.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
i still see it 87w 27n. can anybody see this or is it just me:)
big ouch, storm.
I look at TD5 as a blessing. It will give the southeast some needed rain and cloud cover which will cool our temperatures back into the 80s instead of the upper 90s. I am completely up for cooler temperatures, especially since this summer has been too hot!
Quoting Kristina40:
TD 5 might be a nothingburger but I'll sure take the nice breezes that are blowing in off the Gulf today.


Totally agree, it's bearable outside today, nice SE breeze in Milton Fl
expect dry air get out of the way
3801. skook
There is somewhat of a circulation west of Tampa, not surface but there is a spin within a spin out there.
Could be bad news for NOLA and area. More then one model is showing TD5 doing a loop de loop over LA and going back into the GOM



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Quoting HappyBirthdayJFV:
big ouch, storm.


What does that chart mean?
Yep Chuck, I'm in PC and the breeze is simply wonderful. It has been so darn hot for so long this is definitely a welcome respite.
3805. CJ5
The storms this year are having a had time staying organized and maintaining convection, wierd. There is still most of the season left though, we shall see.
3806. IKE

INITIAL 11/1500Z 27.8N 86.8W 25 KT


There's almost no clouds there at those coordinates....

3807. A4Guy
Quoting StormW:
Ouch!



So...Storm...What does all taht mean, please?
Quoting StormW:
Ouch!




????meaning....
Quoting Baybuddy:


Wow... would you do it again? When I win the lottery I would like a Mooney.


That's a negative. Much smarter now. Besides, I am not current, but I have taken a liking to the LSA's...just have to convince my wife to spend "some" of retirement nest egg...not likely...LOL!

v/r

Jon
let me rephrase that.. east of 94
Quoting btwntx08:

alex was in the gom it didnt fail oops
rapid intensification right around the corner.....not!
Sounds from that discussion, 'Danielle' may be even longer down the road.

Something to do with being fashionably late, methinks.
Quoting StormW:
Ouch!

September should be one heck of a month.....
Quoting DestinJeff:
Can someone point out where the LLC might be?



Its true the storm is having issues with vertical stacking. Oragnization of the storm is very poor. There was more dry air than I had originally thought...

Jeff, if you know of a good place to stay for a family in Destin then shoot me an email of some places...I need a vacation.
3815. angiest
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


actually what about Alex that storm certainly was not a failed store and it was in the gulf of Mexico


This year's Gulf storms:
Alex - borderline cat2/3
TD 2 - failed to develop
Bonnie - died in the Gulf
TD 5 -?
btw im downing my forecast to 50-60 mph now
Safety issue (unusual one) associated with down trees

Good morning. Well, since hurricanes take down trees I ran into a safety issue that can occur that I never heard about. Mine is sort of hurricane related since I took down a tree earlier this year owing to the forecasts of an active year, and it turned out to be carpenter ant infested anyway so it was coming down storm or no storm.

Since there has been some flaming of the high forecasters, hey, at least in my case they have provided a social benefit. :)

Anyway, I just had a gas leak on property. Actually, this morning I am being held hostage by the local gas utility.

Cause of leak.

The tree was a junk, invasive species that shouldn't have been planted there anyway for several reasons. Tallow to be precise.

The roots grew down an started pushing against the pipe. Slow process, pipe slowly bends, gets tension put on it.

Now, when the tree dies (like, with a storm knocking it down) the roots rot. In my case we just had the 13" of rain in Houston (where is that now!) and that was the first serious rain after the tree was removed.

There is a catastrophic release of tension and it literally ripped the service line off of the main line.

I've never heard of this one and couldn't find it on the internet but it really happened.

The PV solar panel installers noticed the gas leak first, interestingly enough. It was on neighbors property in a place they do not frequent.
I advice many here on WU to read this great explanation on the lack of activity across the atl given by CSU'S Klotzbach.

"The average date of 2nd hurricane formation for all of these years is August 21, and you will note that five years with very high ACE values of 170 or greater did not have their 2nd hurricane formation until August 20th or later. The 2nd storm in 1961 did not form until September, and that September went on to have four major hurricanes, a record for the month. So, from a climatological perspective, it is not time to write off the TC season yet."

Here's the link to the complete article...CSU's Klotzbach Addresses Lack of Hurricane Activity

Quoting Neapolitan:


If the chest-thumping fool is speaking about himself and his irrational, non-scientfic, I-refuse-to-let-the-truth-get-in-my-way ranting, then that's the most profoundly honest thing he's ever said. ;-)




Ya gotta let go of the hate....
I can argue with you till I'm blue in the face...but I don't think I dislike anything or anybody as much as you seem to dislike JB.




Quoting IKE:

INITIAL 11/1500Z 27.8N 86.8W 25 KT


There's almost no clouds there at those coordinates....

With a storm this fragile there could be a CoC relocation closer to the convection. Not looking the best right now.
Quoting Kristina40:
Yep Chuck, I'm in PC and the breeze is simply wonderful. It has been so darn hot for so long this is definitely a welcome respite.


Yeah, I work at a plant in the Ascend (Solutia) site and I was out in the environment for most of my 12 hour shift yesterday. So wanted to spend some time in the office, but was not able to.
Quoting Eagle101:


That's a negative. Much smarter now. Besides, I am not current, but I have taken a liking to the LSA's...just have to convince my wife to spend "some" of retirement nest egg...not likely...LOL!

v/r

Jon


I'm not current either, (two open hearts) but doc says i should be good in a month or two...the big issue is cash. I still love planes though.
3823. calder
Quoting btwntx08:
btw im downing my forecast to 50-60 mph now


wowzer, there's a first!
Quoting hurricane23:
I advice many here on WU to read this great explanation on the lack of activity across the atl given by CSU'S Klotzbach.

"The average date of 2nd hurricane formation for all of these years is August 21, and you will note that five years with very high ACE values of 170 or greater did not have their 2nd hurricane formation until August 20th or later. The 2nd storm in 1961 did not form until September, and that September went on to have four major hurricanes, a record for the month. So, from a climatological perspective, it is not time to write off the TC season yet."

Here's the link to the complete article...CSU's Klotzbach Addresses Lack of Hurricane Activity



Vey informative - very good information -great post...

Thank you sir.
Quoting hurricane23:
I advice many here on WU to read this great explanation on the lack of activity across the atl given by CSU'S Klotzbach.

"The average date of 2nd hurricane formation for all of these years is August 21, and you will note that five years with very high ACE values of 170 or greater did not have their 2nd hurricane formation until August 20th or later. The 2nd storm in 1961 did not form until September, and that September went on to have four major hurricanes, a record for the month. So, from a climatological perspective, it is not time to write off the TC season yet."

Here's the link to the complete article...CSU's Klotzbach Addresses Lack of Hurricane Activity

Thanks for the article Adrian!
3826. Asta
3827. scott39
Quoting IKE:

INITIAL 11/1500Z 27.8N 86.8W 25 KT


There's almost no clouds there at those coordinates....

Im thinking that was typo!
Quoting rossclick:
let me rephrase that.. east of 94

too late
Quoting angiest:


This year's Gulf storms:
Alex - borderline cat2/3
TD 2 - failed to develop
Bonnie - died in the Gulf
TD 5 -?

better to say...it stayed a td
TD 5 doesn't look like a tropical storm it looks like a smoke ring..
Today's Areas of Interest:

1. Tropical Depression Five
2. Invest 93L
3. Lesser Antilles Tropical Wave
4. 30W Disturbed Weather
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
With a storm this fragile there could be a CoC relocation closer to the convection. Not looking the best right now.

too me its possible we'll just have to watch
anyone here computer savvy and have a blackberry? i need some help.. pm me
3834. scott39
StormW, Please make sense out of the last Coordinates on TD5?
Quoting HappyBirthdayJFV:
morning,a Adrian, how much longer, my man?


Can you answer post 3803 for me? Thanks
Quoting rossclick:
anyone here computer savvy and have a blackberry? i need some help.. pm me


Check your WUMail
that reason for that plume of smoke is cause of the ull...coc maybe relocate itself over the deepest convection
Quoting Kristina40:
TD 5 doesn't look like a tropical storm it looks like a smoke ring..
The year of the tropical trash storm....so far
Quoting Floodman:


Check your WUMail


I also have a crackberry... they are not good for you :(
All, this is easy to figure. TD05 is having a hard time because the moisture is being sucked away. It isnt as much a dry air issue of entering the storm as it is moisture leaving it. The ULL to the NW is pulling all the moisture out of it it cant mature, grow and get organized. 30-40mph system at best in my eyes.
3843. scott39
Quoting IKE:

INITIAL 11/1500Z 27.8N 86.8W 25 KT


There's almost no clouds there at those coordinates....

Those coordinates dont make sense!
G'morn HJ!

Nice site!
Quoting Orcasystems:


I also have a crackberry... they are not good for you :(


I made that horrible mistake about two years ago...
Good Morning!

What happened to TD 5? It looked gorgeous yesterday; now it just looks like a bundled up mess. I thought it would be Daneille by now. Instead its weakening. Can anybody tell me what happened?
i would watch that area around 26.5n and 84.0w for a relocation
000
WTNT35 KNHC 111443
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2010

...LARGE DEPRESSION REMAINS DISORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 86.8W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
Dr. Ryan Maue (FSU) posted up an interesting read similar to Dr. Klotzbach's article...see link.

Ryan N. Maue's 2010 Global Tropical Cyclone Activity Update

v/r

Jon
Quoting Orcasystems:


I also have a crackberry... they are not good for you :(


iPhones are just as bad :/
There doesn't appear to be a closed circulation anymore.
Quoting cyclonekid:
Good Morning!

What happened to TD 5? It looked gorgeous yesterday; now it just looks like a bundled up mess. I thought it would be Daneille by now. Instead its weakening. Can anybody tell me what happened?
NHC believes the storm ingested dry air from the ULL, which acted to collapse the thunderstorms that tried to develop. the dry air is starting to mix out now, but the storm is very broad and disorganized.
Quoting claire4385:


iPhones are just as bad :/


No issues with my iPhone...woprks like a champ and mkaes the Blackberry look like a chump...
Quoting cyclonekid:
Good Morning!

What happened to TD 5? It looked gorgeous yesterday; now it just looks like a bundled up mess. I thought it would be Daneille by now. Instead its weakening. Can anybody tell me what happened?

some dry from the ull is affecting it right now we need to look what it looks like later today p.s hope ike doesnt quote u if so ummm grr
3856. scott39
Quoting StormW:


I'm tryin'...ya got me how it reformed there, when the 850mb vorticity earlier was close to the FL. west coast, and upper level winds are out of the east...you think the convection would be further to the west. The way they have it, you'd think we had a system being sheared by westerly winds.
Scratching head.
I would really watch for something to form off SW FL as there is lots of 850 vort and convection left behind TD 5 and it's this that maybe causing TD 5's demise. Looks like a wet and stormy day for west FL.
Quoting TotalAnnihilation:
There doesn't appear to be a closed circulation anymore.
I think its just very broad. You can see numerous west winds flowing into the broad circulation, leading me to believe it is closed.
Quoting scott39:
Scratching head.


You and me both.
Good morning! Wow, TD5 really went downhill fast. Good. Hopefully just the rain we need and some light cool breezes are headed my way!!
Quoting Floodman:


No issues with my iPhone...woprks like a champ and mkaes the Blackberry look like a chump...


I guess it's because I got the 8 gig 3G...I have too much stuff on it now, and it freezes up if I try to do too much at once :s
3862. Buhdog
vary confusing system :)
Quoting claire4385:


iPhones are just as bad :/


I am getting the new Crackberry.. which is going to make it twice as bad :(

I need to become unplugged I think..or an intervention
Sup Flood

I have been using a Droid. I like it. I am really eyeing the new Iphone 4- that phone rocks.
3865. will45
TD5 lost its chance last nite i think. The ULL is kicking its butt
Quoting KanKunKid:


That would be a J-3 Cub, Piper. You can fly with the doors open. On a windy day, you can even fly backwards. Seen it done on a windy fall day in 1975, "Shorty" Graves, proprietor and flight instructor, Brownsburg airport (grass strip) Brownsburg, Indiana. I think there is a shopping center there now. Would be fun in TD 5, If you missed something, you could fly backwards and do it again.
Rode in one of those once. Had a great time. Like a canoe in the air. Could feel every ripple of air current. Great day for it. Probably wouldn't be any fun in turbulent conditions.
Can I get a collective 'rut roh'?




Okay, maybe not 'rut roh' worthy, but interesting feature none of the less.
3868. hydrus
Quoting Buhdog:
vary confusing system :)
Yes, and the GEM model has itLink hanging around for a week....
Looks more like a trough of low pressure now. I wouldn't be surprised if we see another center form closer to FL where the deepest convection is over the next couple of days.
Quoting Floodman:


No issues with my iPhone...woprks like a champ and mkaes the Blackberry look like a chump...
Just don't get out of an AT&T area. ATT has very weak signal here.
Quoting StormW:


I'm tryin'...ya got me how it reformed there, when the 850mb vorticity earlier was close to the FL. west coast, and upper level winds are out of the east...you think the convection would be further to the west. The way they have it, you'd think we had a system being sheared by westerly winds.

if the center has reformed, could it lend to a whole new set of circumstances?
I had posted yday that TD5 would have to really step it up in the next 24 hrs and that last night was critical.

Seems like the storms prefer the daylight this year.
3873. scott39
On the visible you can see a little "shrimp" swirl! Is that what the NHC is calling the center?
Quoting btwntx08:
btw im downing my forecast to 50-60 mph now


Better bring it down a lot more than that.
i am far from an expert, and i can't say i know which was the ULL and the LLL, but it seems an ULL plowed it's way across Florida yesterday, picking up the LLL a bit, and the ULL continues to plow with it's same momentum and trajectory. this i believe contributes to the shearing Storm references, and i think we'll be looking at decoupling this afternoon. but i really don't know this stuff... thoughts?
Quoting Jeff9641:
I would really watch for something to form off SW FL as there is lots of 850 vort and convection left behind TD 5 and it's this that maybe causing TD 5's demise. Looks like a wet and stormy day for west FL.

its not dead yet
Dr. Masters - I have followed your blog for a number of years now, and appreciate your insight. Your thoughts are one of my primary sources for decision making, as they provide me with a little extra data that is not always available from other sources in a timely manner. However, it seems that you are getting later and later with your updates. It used to be that I could depend upon an update at about 8:00/9:00 a.m. CDT whenever a storm was brewing. Now your updates occur at 11:00 a.m. CDT or later. Is this just an anomaly, or is this what we can expect from now on? For those of us who live 4 hours from the coast and have to make a decision on whether to stay or go (to secure boats) this creates a bit of a problem. I urge you to go back to your earlier reporting format, if at all possible.

Regards
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Can I get a collective 'rut roh'?




Okay, maybe not 'rut roh' worthy, but interesting feature none of the less.


Hey this has some potential...your talking about 15N 53 or so W right?
3879. will45
Quoting Minnemike:
i am far from an expert, and i can't say i know which was the ULL and the LLL, but it seems an ULL plowed it's way across Florida yesterday, picking up the LLL a bit, and the ULL continues to plow with it's same momentum and trajectory. this i believe contributes to the shearing Storm references, and i think we'll be looking at decoupling this afternoon. but i really don't know this stuff... thoughts?


what the ULL is doing is sucking the moister out of TD 5
Quoting wayfaringstranger:


Hey this has some potential...your talking about 15N 53 or so W right?


The one with the yellow circle, yes.
Quoting btwntx08:

its not dead yet


COC is completely deviod right now as most of the convection is near FL's west coast. If you look at Tampa's radr you can clearly see very heavy rain coming ashore near Tampa.
btw i took at the hourly cimss updates and guess what its being sheared from the ne about 30 kts take a look:
Quoting timbertank:
Dr. Masters - I have followed your blog for a number of years now, and appreciate your insight. Your thoughts are one of my primary sources for decision making, as they provide me with a little extra data that is not always available from other sources in a timely manner. However, it seems that you are getting later and later with your updates. It used to be that I could depend upon an update at about 8:00/9:00 a.m. CDT whenever a storm was brewing. Now your updates occur at 11:00 a.m. CDT or later. Is this just an anomaly, or is this what we can expect from now on? For those of us who live 4 hours from the coast and have to make a decision on whether to stay or go (to secure boats) this creates a bit of a problem. I urge you to go back to your earlier reporting format, if at all possible.

Regards


You should definitely ask for your money back.

Oh, wait... ;-)
Q: What do you get when you cross the start of the hurricane season (except Alex) and a Blackberry?

A: A "FizzleBerry"

And now, with nothing better to do, I will attempt to make a cocktail that will bear the above namesake...wish me luck. Rum or Vodka?
I think that as the ULL slides away stops interfering with the development of TD 5, a tighter circulation will begin to develop closer to the largest group of convection in the SE GOMEX. Most of the inflow is being focused in this area, and it will have the best chance for strengthening. However, there is a very real chance TD 5's circulation remains quite broad for the rest of its life and it never makes it to TS status. Although its possible, there is a better chance it develops into a TS.
I'm confused! Did the NHC mess up on the coordinates or something because there isn't anything where the supposed center is? Anyways, 93L is on the verge of becoming 06L.

Could someone post a radar or satellite and put a circle around the "center" of TD5. My novice eyes can't find it. TIA.
3889. Mixed
hey guys I have been on this site for a while now in background shame to say but i find the site to be very informative, so i just signed up, I am from St. Lucia in the lesser antilles which looks like it could get a bit stormy later, well it has been for a couple days now heavy lightning, thunder and moderate rain. Its calm now but it looks like it will get worst tonight. Anyways good to be here......
3891. srada
Good Morning Everyone..

boy TD5 looks awful on satellite which is a good thing..we definetly dont need a bad storm in the gulf or elsewhere..

might be looking at some homebrew potential off the carolina coast if Im reading this right

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PRECEDING A COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW ANY CAUTIONARY HEADLINE
CRITERIA UNLESS A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AS DEPICTED BY SOME GUIDANCE
DEVELOPS.
THIS IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED HOWEVER. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY BY
FRIDAY AND THE EFFECTS ON THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE CONSIDERABLE.
DESPITE THIS UNCERTAINTY THE NEARNESS OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD KEEP
WIND SPEEDS AND THUS SEAS RATHER LOW.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm confused! Did the NHC mess up on the coordinates or something because there isn't anything where the supposed center is? Anyways, 93L is on the verge of becoming 06L.

From NHC: VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION REMAINS VERY LARGE AND ELONGATED.
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE DEPRESSION BUT REMAIN LIMITED NEAR THE CENTER. IT APPEARS
THAT THE CENTER...SUCH AS IT IS...REFORMED OVERNIGHT TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES. A MEAN CENTER OF THE OVERALL
SYSTEM RATHER THAN A WIND CENTER WAS USED FOR THE ADVISORY
POSITION.
Not long to landfall if there anything left.
Quoting StormW:


Yes ma'am!

Rhut rho.... time to apply the Head On!
Quoting Jeff9641:


COC is completely deviod right now as most of the convection is near FL's west coast. If you look at Tampa's radr you can clearly see very heavy rain coming ashore near Tampa.

not dead i think it maybe relocating
I don't understand why the center would be pushed so far to the west so quickly. Shouldn't it be closer to the spiraling convection to the East?
Quoting StormW:


Yes ma'am!
Hey Storm, I'm curious as to what you think the probability is of the the center reforming and tightening up under the current main convective mass? And if so, how long do you think until this will happen?
Welcome Mixer, I'm at the other end of the bowling alley, I'd like to call the Caribbean Sea, in the Cancun area. Nice to have someone on the front line, so to speak where the bowling ball hits first! Enjoy!

PS my quote button isn't working again. Sorry.
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Better bring it down a lot more than that.

maybe but not yet
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
From NHC: VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION REMAINS VERY LARGE AND ELONGATED.
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE DEPRESSION BUT REMAIN LIMITED NEAR THE CENTER. IT APPEARS
THAT THE CENTER...SUCH AS IT IS...REFORMED OVERNIGHT TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES. A MEAN CENTER OF THE OVERALL
SYSTEM RATHER THAN A WIND CENTER WAS USED FOR THE ADVISORY
POSITION.
Oh, ok. Thanks!
Quoting KanKunKid:
Q: What do you get when you cross the start of the hurricane season (except Alex) and a Blackberry?

A: A "FizzleBerry"

And now, with nothing better to do, I will attempt to make a cocktail that will bear the above namesake...wish me luck. Rum or Vodka?


Vodka! :-D
Quoting DestinDome:
I don't understand why the center would be pushed so far to the west so quickly. Shouldn't it be closer to the spiraling convection to the East?
Because the center is very broad and the NHC used coordinated in the average of the broad center. The center could still reform farther east.
Since this storm crossed Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, 94L had been headed toward Havana,Cuba then Freeport,Texas, turned into TropicalDepressionFive while heading toward IntracoastalCity,Louisiana, and headed toward PortArthur,Texas, Destin,Florida and Galveston,Texas.
After TD5 had headed toward Waveland,Mississippi then IntracoastalCity (again)
- -Time and Date - - - - Location
11pmEDT 10Aug10 - 26.2N84.2W
02amEDT 11Aug10 - 26.3N84.5W
05amEDT 11Aug10 - 26.8N85.1W
07amCDT 11Aug10 - 27.1N85.8W
10amCDT 11Aug10 - 27.8N86.8W
...TD5 has been heading toward NewOrleans,Louisiana
Copy&paste 26.0N84.1W-26.2N84.2W, 26.2N84.2W-26.3N84.5W, 26.3N84.5W-26.8N85.1W, 26.8N85.1W-27.1N85.8W, 27.1N85.8W-27.8N86.8W, 30.3n89.5w, 29.6n92.1w, 27.8N86.8W-29.7n89.6w into the GreatCircleMapper for a looksee.
3905. Prgal
NEW BLOG
Can someone post up a good visible link of the GOM or preferably TD5, the NHC's visible sucks!
Last update for awhile.. off to work.. or at least to fake being at work :) Nice circular model tracks on some.



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
if u havent look at 3883 plz do
Quoting cyclonekid:
Good Morning!

What happened to TD 5? It looked gorgeous yesterday; now it just looks like a bundled up mess. I thought it would be Daneille by now. Instead its weakening. Can anybody tell me what happened?



The upper air invironment. It has all-along been a detriment to this thing organizing. The wv loops from 48 hrs ago thu now tell the story:

The upper air low moved across Fl ( moistened up as it did) westward to where it is now (sw of NOLA about 100 miles or so.

Low level spin meanwhile, has been trying to "go" off the sw fl coast, but cant gain no traction. Now it seems the ULL has helped to lower the pressures a little and helping to create a much broader circulation... That what the TPC is calling the center now ..

Quoting Orcasystems:


I am getting the new Crackberry.. which is going to make it twice as bad :(

I need to become unplugged I think..or an intervention


My husband complains I stay on it WAY too much lol...I would be lost without my iPhone
Thanks Fish. That is what I was assuming.
I think the center 'might' be at 27N 84W. That's where the 850 mb vort is strongest and would make TD5 more organized. There's little to no vort where the NHC has the current COC.

Top of the mornin' to ya....

Quoting wayfaringstranger:
I had posted yday that TD5 would have to really step it up in the next 24 hrs and that last night was critical.

Seems like the storms prefer the daylight this year.
I've been saying for weeks that there seems to be some inversion of normal patterns, so that storms seem at their best in the early afternoon and at their worst in the early morning, quite the opposite of what is expected. I'm rather curious as to why that is happening....
3915. Prgal


NEW BLOG
Trying to figure out how to post an image. Dialog box asks for the URL. Where should I upload it?
NEW BLOG
Quoting btwntx08:
if u havent look at 3883 plz do
I see a big plate of crow!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I think the center 'might' be at 27N 84W. That's where the 850 mb vort is strongest and would make TD5 more organized. There's little to no vort where the NHC has the current COC.


bingo i said earlier it would be closer to those coordinates i said 26.5n and 84.0w
Quoting Neapolitan:


You should definitely ask for your money back.

Oh, wait... ;-)


Link
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



The upper air invironment. It has all-along been a detriment to this thing organizing. The wv loops from 48 hrs ago thu now tell the story:

The upper air low moved across Fl ( moistened up as it did) westward to where it is now (sw of NOLA about 100 miles or so.

Low level spin meanwhile, has been trying to "go" off the sw fl coast, but cant gain no traction. Now it seems the ULL has helped to lower the pressures a little and helping to create a much broader circulation... That what the TPC is calling the center now ..

yeah, that's what i meant... well put Doug
new update on tropical d five on video
OK!

1 Part Blackberry Schnapps
2 Part Vodka (Stolli)
1 Part Pineapple juice
2 Part "Fizz" water (Soda water)
1/2 Grenadine

Mix, pour over ice and spritz with fresh lime.

"The FizzleBerry"
Official drink of the (early) hurricane season..
I'll make up a new one for the first Cat one..
Meanwhile, here's looking at you, kid!
Quoting Jeff9641:


You and me both.

Yep heres my chance for the rain gauge to catch up to yours. Really interesting to watch whats going on in the gulf and its got alot of people scraching there heads
Quoting KanKunKid:
Q: What do you get when you cross the start of the hurricane season (except Alex) and a Blackberry?

A: A "FizzleBerry"

And now, with nothing better to do, I will attempt to make a cocktail that will bear the above namesake...wish me luck. Rum or Vodka?
Dude.... it's 11:30 a.m..... 10:30 where u are.....
Quoting thermoclined:
I see a big plate of crow!

???
Sabbatical, Cancun, beach. Time here is meaningless. Especially abiding by a schedule. If I did, I would be the only person doing so. Besides, it's 5 o'clock somewhere....
Quoting Mixed:
hey guys I have been on this site for a while now in background shame to say but i find the site to be very informative, so i just signed up, I am from St. Lucia in the lesser antilles which looks like it could get a bit stormy later, well it has been for a couple days now heavy lightning, thunder and moderate rain. Its calm now but it looks like it will get worst tonight. Anyways good to be here......
Welcome to the blog. Always good to see another Caribbean blogger. Looks like u guys are going to get some wx from that Twave that's about 400-500 miles E of u.....
Quoting KanKunKid:
Welcome Mixer, I'm at the other end of the bowling alley, I'd like to call the Caribbean Sea, in the Cancun area. Nice to have someone on the front line, so to speak where the bowling ball hits first! Enjoy!

PS my quote button isn't working again. Sorry.
BTW, did u ever get something worked out for image posting? I got on the blog the other night [I guess] after u had gone off...
Besides, making a drink isn't drinking a drink. Um, well, yeah, I guess it is.
Besides, I might see a storm of tropical proportions sooner than y'all up yonder. Now that's sobering.
But just relax, these things will come when Mother Nature decides. The worst thing that could happen is that the forecasters that forecasted the season and are sticking to their guns, may have less bullets next year if their predictions don't pan out. But once something hits the ground, these guys are all over it like white on rice (except brown rice). I thought it would be nice to maintain a vigil here on the blog and throw in a comment or 2 for fun and enlightenment so I would be able to have a little advance knowledge of what will happen. Well, the jokes on me! So, I'm just kicking back and enjoying the show...ALL of it.
3932. Mixed
Quoting BahaHurican:
Welcome to the blog. Always good to see another Caribbean blogger. Looks like u guys are going to get some wx from that Twave that's about 400-500 miles E of u.....


Yeah i havent seen as much lightning and thunder as a couple nights ago in a while, wonder how it will be later on.
3933. Mixed
Looks like the wave east of the lesser antilies is moving nw probably wont get too much activity here in stlucia
I think we all got it wrong at the beginning when the season's forecast for number of systems came out. They were talking about storms that would fizzle or go poooFF!! not actual storms or hurricanes. If we see it this way they have been very accurate in their fizzlecast and it is indeed an above average season for storms going pooff!!
My opinion on the current situation:

Vorticity shows three apparent spikes in the 850 range. One off barataria bay, another the current LLC mid gulf, and a broader area to the east of the 'current' LLC, closer to florida.

The larger area of vort near florida's western coastline appears to be overtaking the former LLC and is likely a MLC descending.

I'd put forward that this seems to be the case by the distinct sphere shape that is associated with the current Low shown in this vort map:




Close inspection of the gradient shading on the current Low shows that there does seem to be a difference between the two adjacent areas:




Thus I believe what we are seeing is not a broad low pressure area, but a convection train between the currently dying low, and the ULL across the area. As the new proposed center tightens off the florida coast, I think we'll see this moisture train lessen and end, and much like Johnny, 05 will be alive.

But that's just my opinion. :P
3936. hydrus
Quoting errantlythought:
My opinion on the current situation:

Vorticity shows three apparent spikes in the 850 range. One off barataria bay, another the current LLC mid gulf, and a broader area to the east of the 'current' LLC, closer to florida.

The larger area of vort near florida's western coastline appears to be overtaking the former LLC and is likely a MLC descending.

I'd put forward that this seems to be the case by the distinct sphere shape that is associated with the current Low shown in this vort map:




Close inspection of the gradient shading on the current Low shows that there does seem to be a difference between the two adjacent areas:




Thus I believe what we are seeing is not a broad low pressure area, but a convection train between the currently dying low, and the ULL across the area. As the new proposed center tightens off the florida coast, I think we'll see this moisture train lessen and end, and much like Johnny, 05 will be alive.

But that's just my opinion. :P
That was a very good post. If you are not a Met, you should be.:)
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
G'morn HJ!

Nice site!


Thanks Doug. A little behind on WU...work and web design require lots of time. UGH!
Quoting Jeff9641:
I would really watch for something to form off SW FL as there is lots of 850 vort and convection left behind TD 5 and it's this that maybe causing TD 5's demise. Looks like a wet and stormy day for west FL.


YAY!!! Finally...much needed rain...