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Over 300 dead in historic tornado outbreak; one violent EF-5 tornado confirmed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:20 PM GMT on April 29, 2011

Rescuers sifting through the twisted wreckage of countless towns ravaged by Wednesday's historic tornado outbreak continue to uncover bodies today, and the death toll has swollen to over 300 this morning, and may be as high as 319. Hardest hit was Alabama, with at least 213 dead. Tennessee, Mississippi, Georgia, Arkansas, and Virginia are each reporting 11 - 34 deaths. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 211 preliminary reports of tornadoes between 8am EDT Wednesday and 8am Thursday, and 346 reports for the full 4-day period of the outbreak, from April 25 - April 28. Twenty-two of these tornadoes were killer tornadoes; deaths occurred in six states. Damage surveys will take another week to complete, but preliminary surveys indicate that at least one of the tornadoes was an EF-5--the Smithville, Mississippi tornado, which hit at 3:44pm EDT on Wednesday. That tornado killed 13 people and destroyed 166 buildings, and reportedly sucked fire hydrants out of the ground. Some well-built modern 2-story homes that were bolted to their foundations were completely destroyed, leaving only the foundation. This type of damage is characteristic of an EF-5 tornado with 205 mph winds. The Smithville tornado is the first EF-5 tornado in Mississippi since the Candlestick Park tornado of March 3, 1966. Three other tornadoes from Wednesday's outbreak have been given preliminary EF-4 ratings, with winds of 166 - 200 mph. These include the Phil Campbell, AL tornado (26 deaths), the Ringgold, GA tornado (7 deaths), the Tanner, GA tornado (11 deaths), and the Apison, Tennessee tornado (13 deaths, and possibly the same tornado that hit Ringgold.) The violent tornado that ravaged Tuscaloosa and Birmingham, Alabama, killing at least 46 people and injuring 600, has not yet been given an official rating. I expect this tornado will be rated an EF-4 (possibly an EF-5.) This tornado is likely to be the most expensive tornado of all-time, and damage from the April 25 - 28 outbreak is likely rank as the most expensive tornado outbreak in history. The current record is the $3.5 billion price tag, in 2005 dollars, of the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak . According wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt in his post The World's Deadliest Tornadoes, the death toll of 319 makes the April 25 - 28, 2011 tornado outbreak the fourth deadliest tornado outbreak in U.S. history, and the deadliest since 1936. It is the deadliest of the past 50 years, surpassing the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak (315 killed) and the 1965 Palm Sunday tornado outbreak (256 killed.)


Figure 1. Still frame from an animation showing the height and extent of the rain columns associated with the thunderstorms that spawned Wednesday's tornadoes. This data, taken from NASA's TRMM satellite, showed that some of these violent storms reached incredible heights of almost 10.6 miles (17 km.) Image credit: NASA/SSAI, Hal Pierce

The 4-day total of preliminary tornado reports of 346 from this outbreak is close to the 323 preliminary tornado reports logged during the massive April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak. That outbreak has 155 confirmed tornadoes so far, making it the largest April tornado outbreak on record, and 3rd largest in history. The numbers from this week's outbreak may be even higher, giving April 2011 the 3rd and 4th largest tornado outbreaks in history, and the deadliest outbreak in 75 years. According to a list of tornado outbreaks maintained by Wikipedia, only two other tornado outbreaks have had as many as 150 twisters--the May 2004 outbreak (385), and the May 2003 outbreak (401).


Figure 2. Storm chaser video from Reed Timmer and tornadovideos.net of four tornadoes that hit Alabama and Mississippi on Wednesday.


Figure 3. Storm chaser video of the tornado that moved through Philadelphia, Mississippi on Wednesday.

Unprecedented flooding predicted on Ohio and Mississippi Rivers
This week's storm system, in combination with heavy rains earlier this month, have pushed the Ohio River and Mississippi River to near-record levels near their confluence. The Ohio River at Cairo, Illinois is expected to crest at 60.5 feet on May 1. This would exceed 100-year flood stage, and be the highest flood in history, besting the 59.5' mark of 1937. Heavy rains of 10 - 15 inches have inundated the region over the past week. Additional rains of 1 - 3 inches are expected over the next five days.


Figure 4. Rainfall for the 7-day period ending at 8am EDT Thursday, April 28, 2011. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

Record 100+ year flood expected on Mississippi River
Snow melt from this winter's record snow pack across the Upper Mississippi River has formed a pulse of flood waters that is moving downstream. When this floodwater pulse moves south of Cairo, Illinois over the next two weeks, it will join with the record water flow coming out of the Ohio River, and create the highest flood heights ever recorded on the Mississippi, according to the latest forecasts from the National Weather Service. Along a 400-mile stretch of the Mississippi, from Cairo to Natchez, Mississippi the Mississippi is expected to experience the highest flood heights since records began 100 or more years ago, at 5 of the 10 gauges on the river along this stretch. The records are predicted to begin to fall on May 3 at New Madrid, and progress downstream to Natchez by May 20. Areas that are not protected by levees can expect extensive damage from the flooding, and it is possible that the Army Corps of Engineers will have to intentionally dynamite levees at Birds Point and New Madrid, Missouri to protect the town of Cairo from flooding. One unofficial estimate I saw on the Army Corps of Engineers web site put the cost of intentionally breaching the levees at Birds Point and New Madrid at $100 million dollars, due to damage to the croplands and structures in the flooded area. No levee has failed on the Lower Mississippi south of the Ohio River junction since 1950, and the Army Corp of Engineers has designed the levee system to contain a 500-year flood. This means that the Mississippi River flood of 2011--which will be somewhere between a 100-year and 200-year flood between Cairo and Natchez--is not likely to be a multi-billion-dollar disaster like the 1993 flood on the Upper Mississippi, where many levees failed.

The Mississippi River at New Madrid, MO, about 40 miles downstream of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers, is currently at 44.9', the 2nd highest flood in history. The river is predicted to crest on Tuesday very near the all-time record height of 48 feet. The NWS warns that at this height, "Large amounts of property damage can be expected. Evacuation of many homes and businesses becomes necessary." Previous record heights at this location:

(1) 48.00 ft on 02/03/1937
(2) 44.60 ft on 04/09/1913
(3) 43.60 ft on 04/04/1975
(4) 43.50 ft on 02/16/1950
(5) 42.94 ft on 03/17/1997

The timing of the floods crests will depend upon a complex mix a factors, including how much rain falls over the next month, the possible influence of southerly winds holding up the floodwater pulses, the potential opening of flood control structures and reduction of flows from flood control reservoirs, and potential levee failures. The Mississippi River is expected to crest at 17 feet at New Orleans on May 22, three feet below the top of the levees. This would likely require opening of the Bonnet Carre Spillway 28 miles upstream from New Orleans, to relieve pressure on the city's levees. Opening the spillway drains 250,000 cubic feet per second of flow into Lake Pontchartrain.

Helping out tornado victims
For those who want to lend a helping hand to those impacted by the widespread destruction this month's severe weather has brought, stop by the portlight.org blog.

Related post: Are tornadoes getting stronger and more frequent? The answer is--we don't know.

Jeff Masters
Tornado Damage
Tornado Damage
Tornado damage at County Line Road near Old Alabama Road on the Bradley/Hamilton County line in Tennessee

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't need anymore rain in my area.We need a break.


Whereabouts are you?
502. beell


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0673
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0847 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 258...

VALID 010147Z - 010245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 258 CONTINUES.

RECENT TRENDS PER LIT WSR-88D INDICATED THE STORM OVER GARLAND
COUNTY AR WAS BECOMING SUPERCELLULAR /INFLOW NOTCH AND LOW LEVEL
ROTATION/ AND TRACKING ESE AT 25 KT. 00Z LIT SOUNDING SHOWED THE CAP HAD
WEAKENED SINCE 12Z WITH A RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AS
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN AR INDICATED AN
INCREASE IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO THE UPPER 60S. THIS IS
CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MEANWHILE...
STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ TO 40 KT PER LIT WSR-88D VWP DATA IS
RESULTING IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR /SFC-1 KM SRH 420 M2 PER
S2/
. THIS COMBINED WITH AFOREMENTIONED THERMODYNAMICS AND OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES SHOWING EFFECTIVE INFLOW IS SURFACE BASED PROVIDES CONCERN
THAT THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE A TORNADO.

OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING AND/OR MOVING INTO CENTRAL AR WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED FOR SIMILAR TRENDS AND THREAT.

I have not heard about this place yet

Rainsville death toll climbs to 32

RAINSVILLE, Ala.—A grandmother. A father. An aunt. A granddaughter. A son.

Their families name them one by one and share stories of their lives — at least 32 people snatched away in the storm that left a path of destruction 25 miles long across DeKalb County, Ala.

“It’s worse than Iraq,” said Derek Rosson, a Marine who completed two tours of duty during the war. “You know the people — my grandmother, our neighbors across the street who were like family.”

Rosson gestured across County Road 515 to a barren wasteland swept clean of little more than splinters of wood. Two days ago, the area was filled with a mobile home park and several houses.

“Yesterday, that field had bodies everywhere,” he said. “I’ve seen a lot of death and terrible things, but this was the worst.”

Entire article

Link
504. beell
Quoting atmoaggie:
7 of them in the same day in the super outbreak that defined "super outbreak"...


Scale differences aside - A bad Day in April, 1974.

A strong (1973) La Nina followed by a weaker one (1974)
Quoting beell:


Scale differences aside - A bad Day in April, 1974.

A strong (1973) La Nina followed by a weaker one (1974)
Mmmm now that you bring that up very interesting.Ahhhh now I'm looking at the hurricane season.Very interesting.Mmm I might have to add 1974 to my analog years.Sooo if history is repeating it's self this should be an active hurricane seaqson.I also noticed that in that year two storms formed in June.And the U.S was affected.Ah yes very interesting indeed...
Quoting TomTaylor:
That super outbreak of 1974 likely had many more than 148 tornadoes in 24 hrs but reporting 40 years ago is nothing like it is today. Simply judging by the amount of F5s vs EF5s from that outbreak to this one, it is likely that had all the tornadoes been reported, this present outbreak would not have surpassed the number of tornadoes in the1974 outbreak.


It's possible there were more tornadoes in the 1974 Super Outbreak that weren't accounted for, all at the lower end of the Fujita-Pearson scale. I compared the category distributions of several high-count outbreaks between 1992 and 2008, and came up with the following averages:

F0/EF0: 41.8%
F1/EF1: 33.5%
F2/EF2: 15.7%
F3/EF3: 7.6%
F4/EF4: 1.2%
F5/EF5: 0.3%

(It's interesting to note that, at least for the limited sampling I chose, there have been about twice as many F2s as F3s, and twice as many F1s as F2s.)

However, the 1974 Super Outbreak distribution looks like this:
F0/EF0: 12.8% (19)
F1/EF1: 22.3% (33)
F2/EF2: 21.6% (32)
F3/EF3: 23.0% (34)
F4/EF4: 16.2% (24)
F5/EF5: 4.1% (6)

If the distribution for the 1974 Super Outbreak is normalized with the average distribution I found, and based on having accurate numbers for only F4s and F5s, it would have produced the following approximate counts:

F0/EF0: 250
F1/EF1: 200
F2/EF2: 100
F3/EF3: 50
F4/EF4: 24
F5/EF5: 6
TOTAL: 630

However--this whole exercise might be moot, and in fact almost certainly is. The Fujita-Pearson scale was based on highly subjective and error-prone damage descriptions, and didn't take into account differences in construction methods, building types, etc. (in fact, one of the reasons the Enhanced Fujita Scale was developed). Because of that, many tornadoes were likely overestimated, with some F2s being called F3s, some F3s being called F4s, and some F4s being called F5s. If that is taken into consideration, this week's outbreak may actually have seen more storms than did the 1974 one. It wouldn't be surprising if the actual counts for the 1974 outbreak were very similar to this week's. I'm sure there were some 10-yard-wide, 25-yard-long F0s uncounted in 1974.

At any rate, at the middle- and high-ends of the scale, there's little reason to think there were any more unreported storms in 1974 than there were this week; an F4 or F5 is hard to miss, especially in the crowded eastern U.S.

Severe Weather Alerts

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Faulkner, Lonoke, Pulaski, Saline and White County in AR until 10:15pm CDT. #arwx 6 minutes ago
Tornado Warning for Camp, Cass, Morris, Titus and Upshur County in TX until 9:45pm CDT. #txwx 33 minutes ago
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Faulkner, Garland, Perry, Pulaski and Saline County in AR until 9:30pm CDT. #arwx 52 minutes ago
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Livingston, Lyon, and Marshall County in KY until 9:00pm CDT. #kywx about an hour ago
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Fulton, Izard, Sharp and Stone County in AR until 9:15pm CDT. #arwx about an hour ago
Tornado Warning for Camp, Morris, Titus and Upshur County in TX until 9:15pm CDT. #txwx about an hour ago
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Clay and Greene County in AR until 9:00pm CDT. #arwx about an hour ago
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Garland, Montgomery, Perry and Saline County in AR until 8:45pm CDT. #arwx about an hour ago
I don't if anyone mentioned, but, 7 more counties have been added for AL individual assistance.

Link
Quoting washingtonian115:
Mmmm now that you bring that up very interesting.Ahhhh now I'm looking at the hurricane season.Very interesting.Mmm I might have to add 1974 to my analog years.Sooo if history is repeating it's self this should be an active hurricane seaqson.I also noticed that in that year two storms formed in June.And the U.S was affected.Ah yes very interesting indeed...
And!! the season got off to an early start.Boy this is interesting!!!!!.Yes yes yes!!.I'm gonna look into this more.The U.S was also affected by a major hurricane.It was western Louisiana.The same place that in all the analog years was affeted.Man this is awesome!! information/history I'm getting.Also their were storms that affected the east coast.Another place that's at risk this year.The western/southern section of Florida was affected that year.Which just some happens to be at higher risk this year.1974 has become a close analog.With almost same weather patterns.
Quoting washingtonian115:
And!! the season got off to an early start.Boy this is interesting!!!!!.Yes yes yes!!.I'm gonna look into this more.The U.S was also affected by a major hurricane.It was western Louisiana.The same place that in all the analog years was affeted.Man this is awesome!! information/history I'm getting.Also their were storms that affected the east coast.Another place that's at risk this year.The western/southern section of Florida was affected that year.Which just some happens to be at higher risk this year.1974 has become a close analog.With almost same weather patterns.
Man I'm so awesome/viscious when it comes to tropical weather.
@508. Nea.
From one of the links bl posted at 490,
When the committee met to develop the Enhanced Fujita Scale (see original document) one point was made very clear: it must continue to support and maintain the original tornado database.; In other word, there must be some conformity to that of the F-Scale that is listed in the database.

When these scales were "blended" it was done in a way that intentionally preserved previous plain old "F" designations.

You state many tornadoes were likely overestimated.
Maybe some were underestimated. New scale does not eliminate subjective assessment. Just refines it. 'fraid your argument doesn't hold water with me.

Also, there were 7 (E)F5s in 1974 super outbreak, not 6. See link at comment 481 - official SPC list.
Quoting washingtonian115:
And!! the season got off to an early start.Boy this is interesting!!!!!.Yes yes yes!!.I'm gonna look into this more.The U.S was also affected by a major hurricane.It was western Louisiana.The same place that in all the analog years was affeted.Man this is awesome!! information/history I'm getting.Also their were storms that affected the east coast.Another place that's at risk this year.The western/southern section of Florida was affected that year.Which just some happens to be at higher risk this year.1974 has become a close analog.With almost same weather patterns.


Is June 22 an early start? The 1974 Atlantic Hurricane season also contained 4 sub-tropical storms. June 24 to June 25, July 16 to July 19, August 12 to August 15 and October 4 to October 8. Tropical Depression One developed in the BOC on June 22 and dissipated June 26 above the Catoche Tongue. The last Storm was a relatively late one, Tropical Depression Seventeen, formed November 10 and dissipated November 12.
ATL 1974.


EPAC 1974




WPAC 1974.
508, Do you ever let up on your spin? Gheeze!

Here, have fun with this.....What is up with this Doc?

Rebuttal?

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/04/30/are-gulf-of -mexico-sea-surface-temperature-anomalies-near-to- record-levels/

517. beell
Some good Tornado Outbreak Climatology/Statistics presented at the May 2004, Oklahoma Chapter of the AMS.

Stephen Corfidi SPC
Quoting AussieStorm:


Is June 22 an early start? The 1974 Atlantic Hurricane season also contained 4 sub-tropical storms. June 24 to June 25, July 16 to July 19, August 12 to August 15 and October 4 to October 8. Tropical Depression One developed in the BOC on June 22 and dissipated June 26 above the Catoche Tongue. The last Storm was a relatively late one, Tropical Depression Seventeen, formed November 10 and dissipated November 12.
ATL 1974.


EPAC 1974




WPAC 1974.
When compared to some years it is an early start.So if we look at this in the big picture it seems that if history repeats it's self this season will start early and end late??
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
@508. Nea.
From one of the links bl posted at 490.
When the committee met to develop the Enhanced Fujita Scale (see original document) one point was made very clear: it must continue to support and maintain the original tornado database.; In other word, there must be some conformity to that of the F-Scale that is listed in the database.

When these scales were "blended" it was done in a way that intentionally preserved previous plain old "F" designations.

You state many tornadoes were likely overestimated.
Maybe some were underestimated. New scale does not eliminate subjective assessment. Just refines it. 'fraid your argument doesn't hold water with me.

Also, there were 7 (E)F5s in 1974 super outbreak, not 6. See link at comment 481 - official SPC list.

Well, my math was hardly scientifically perfect. But given the strength distributions of every other major outbreak of the past several decades, it's far more likely that a number of the 1974 SO storms were mistakenly placed into a category higher than they should have been rather than vice versa. One would have to admit that it would require an extremely anomalous outbreak indeed to produce 300% more F3s, 1300% more F4s, and 1400% more F5s than the what the long-term averages would dictate.

Even Dr. Fujita himself recognized the limitations and possibilities for errors in his original scale--especially at the higher end of it--and he was working towards a better method when he retired (and even afterward). You're right in stating the the Enhanced Scale doesn't remove subjectivity--but its designers did more than simply refine it.

Anyway, just some back-of-the-napkin doodling...
Quoting AussieStorm:


Is June 22 an early start? The 1974 Atlantic Hurricane season also contained 4 sub-tropical storms. June 24 to June 25, July 16 to July 19, August 12 to August 15 and October 4 to October 8. Tropical Depression One developed in the BOC on June 22 and dissipated June 26 above the Catoche Tongue. The last Storm was a relatively late one, Tropical Depression Seventeen, formed November 10 and dissipated November 12.
ATL 1974.


EPAC 1974




WPAC 1974.
524. beell
It's possible there were more tornadoes in the 1974 Super Outbreak that weren't accounted for, all at the lower end of the Fujita-Pearson scale. I compared the category distributions of several high-count outbreaks between 1992 and 2008, and came up with the following averages:

Just curious, Neap. Where did those numbers come from? Several? Not all of them?
@ 520. Nea.
If you re-read my comment, you'll see the refinement refers to "subjective assessment" not to the scale itself. I still believe you are splitting hairs. No one in Bridge Creek, OK whose home was wiped clean off the face of Earth would likely give you the time of day if you tried to tell them their tornado wasn't equal to an F5 on the enhanced scale.

I'll let you get back to doodling on your napkin...
It doesn't really matter if it's an EF3 or an EF5. If your home is wiped, it's wiped. Even if they classify it as a drunk driver.

washingtonian- gotta love your viscosity.
Quoting aquak9:
It doesn't really matter if it's an EF3 or an EF5. If your home is wiped, it's wiped. Even if they classify it as a drunk driver.

washingtonian- gotta love your viscosity.


10W30?
post 513- Man I'm so awesome/viscious when it comes to tropical weather.

hey p'Cola- ok, I think I've seen about everything now. Except for locust swarm videos. None of that, please.
530. beell
Quoting PcolaDan:
There is just something unnatural about watching a helicopter float by.

"Just released video from the Japan Coast Guard shows the devastating tsunami hit the Sendai airport and nearby areas."


That was an odd sight. I can't even look at a small compact car nowadays without imagining it bobbing in the water.

Bad as our outbreak was, it is tiny by comparison to the Tsunami. Pick your scale.
Quoting aquak9:
post 513- Man I'm so awesome/viscious when it comes to tropical weather.

hey p'Cola- ok, I think I've seen about everything now. Except for locust swarm videos. None of that, please.


LOL okay, missed that one.
Yea, I'm beginning to wish I was like most people - get up, get coffee, check the weather "Holy schmoly, there's a hurricane/tornado/earthquake/tsunami/(fill in the blank) coming. I better run for cover."
Unlike those of us glued here during these events for days following and worrying about it.
Time for bed I think. Ciao.
Melbourne's wettest April in ten years
Press Release, Saturday April 30, 2011 - 17:03 EST

Melbourne has picked up 102mm of rain in April, which is the highest since 2001.

So far this year the city has received more than half of the annual average of 649mm, gaining 347.4mm and already making it the wettest start to a year in 38 years.

This has had a positive effect on water storage, with dam levels currently at 53.1% compared to 33.5% at the same time last year.

"La Nina conditions have been established since July 2010 and are partly responsible for the above average rainfall experienced this year," weatherzone meteorologist Doug Fenton said.

"The La Nina is currently decaying and climate models indicate that the event will weaken further through autumn and that neutral conditions should return in winter. This should see Melbourne's rainfall trend closer to average," Fenton said.

The average minimum April temperature was 11.7 degrees, one degree warmer than the April average but relatively cold compared to last year which had a record high average minimum of 14.5 degrees.

The average maximum April temperature was 21.1 but again a little chilly compared to last year which had an average maximum of 22.9 degrees.

"The outlook for the remainder of autumn is for close to or above average rainfall as La Nina winds down. We are likely to see an increase in cold fronts coming through the south, which will bring rain and cooler daytime temperatures in May."

- Weatherzone

_________________________________________________ _____________________________________________


Adelaide's driest April in 6 years
Press Release, Sunday May 1, 2011 - 12:47 EST

Adelaide has just experienced its driest April since 2005, with a monthly rain total of just 13mm.

The city had 7 rain days which is close to the long term average of 8, but gained significantly less than the average monthly rain of 40mm.

"The relatively dry April is due to a series of high pressure systems which moved over the state. These high's kept rain bearing cold fronts generally to the south," Weatherzone meteorologist Doug Fenton said.

Despite this, the year to date has brought well above the mean rainfall of 97mm, with 151mm falling in the city's gauge between January and April.

This makes it the wettest start to the year in 11 years.

The lack of rain in April had little affect on temperatures, with the average maximum at 22.8 degrees, 0.2 degrees above average and a little cooler than last years 24 degrees. Overnight minimums were right on average at 12.3 degrees.

The rainfall outlook for the remainder of autumn is for close to or slightly above the long-term average. This is due to unusually warm waters to the southwest of the continent, which will feed additional moisture into cold fronts.

"Computer models indicate that we should see an increased frequent of cold fronts in the coming weeks, which will bring rain and cooler daytime temperatures in May."

- Weatherzone
_________________________________________________ _____________________________________________

Melbourne is just over 400miles south-east of Adelaide.
Having survived the Super Outbreak of 1974, I was marked as a young boy with a respect for tornadoes that bordered on overwhelming dread at times. Over the next 30 years, I would see, hear or be "take shelter" close to 13 tornadoes. To say I've given them a lot of thought throughout my life would be an understatement. I have two recommendations to those of you in positions of influence in the meteorological community:

1) Promote the construction of community shelters in tornado alley.
2) Promote the requirement of in-home hazard radio alarms in tornado alley.

Previous big outbreaks lead to the eventual creation of better warning systems, better radar, and other features of today's response system that regularly save lives every year. BUT ... the system is not yet complete. TWO huge areas of risk were highlighted by this past outbreak and others.

#1 - Night Twisters ... too many people don't own or know how to use weather radios, so if they aren't awake, watching TV or internet or have their cell nearby, they receive no warning. A device that, like a smoke alarm, was a) required to be a part of every dwelling, b) sounded a very loud alarm when triggered and c) programmed to go off when the most severe weather warnings were issued for the area in which the device was located would assure that alarms were indeed heard by even sleeping people in the path of dangerous floods, twisters, etc. Made in large numbers, such devices would cost little more than smoke alarms.

#2 - Lack of Safe Shelter - F4 and F5 twisters can completely destroy homes which are otherwise suitable dwellings. Estimates suggest it can cost $5000 to build a safe room, which not all can afford. Neighborhood safe shelters, no more than 5 minutes walk from any home in their service area, could be built to house dozens safely at much lest cost per family.

Without these two precautions, tragedies like those which happened this week will happen again.

PUSH for these things. They will save lives. Hundreds of lives.
Quoting NWeatherNut:
Having survived the Super Outbreak of 1974, I was marked as a young boy with a respect for tornadoes that bordered on overwhelming dread at times. Over the next 30 years, I would see, hear or be "take shelter" close to 13 tornadoes. To say I've given them a lot of thought throughout my life would be an understatement. I have two recommendations to those of you in positions of influence in the meteorological community:

1) Promote the construction of community shelters in tornado alley.
2) Promote the requirement of in-home hazard radio alarms in tornado alley.

Previous big outbreaks lead to the eventual creation of better warning systems, better radar, and other features of today's response system that regularly save lives every year. BUT ... the system is not yet complete. TWO huge areas of risk were highlighted by this past outbreak and others.

#1 - Night Twisters ... too many people don't own or know how to use weather radios, so if they aren't awake, watching TV or internet or have their cell nearby, they receive no warning. A device that, like a smoke alarm, was a) required to be a part of every dwelling, b) sounded a very loud alarm when triggered and c) programmed to go off when the most severe weather warnings were issued for the area in which the device was located would assure that alarms were indeed heard by even sleeping people in the path of dangerous floods, twisters, etc. Made in large numbers, such devices would cost little more than smoke alarms.

#2 - Lack of Safe Shelter - F4 and F5 twisters can completely destroy homes which are otherwise suitable dwellings. Estimates suggest it can cost $5000 to build a safe room, which not all can afford. Neighborhood safe shelters, no more than 5 minutes walk from any home in their service area, could be built to house dozens safely at much lest cost per family.

Without these two precautions, tragedies like those which happened this week will happen again.

PUSH for these things. They will save lives. Hundreds of lives.

Saint words.Tragedy like this can't happen again.I can't do anything,but I agree with you.Try to write a letter to White House with these words
536. flsky
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:

Saint words.Tragedy like this can't happen again.I can't do anything,but I agree with you.Try to write a letter to White House with these words
Quoting NWeatherNut:
Having survived the Super Outbreak of 1974, I was marked as a young boy with a respect for tornadoes that bordered on overwhelming dread at times. Over the next 30 years, I would see, hear or be "take shelter" close to 13 tornadoes. To say I've given them a lot of thought throughout my life would be an understatement. I have two recommendations to those of you in positions of influence in the meteorological community:

1) Promote the construction of community shelters in tornado alley.
2) Promote the requirement of in-home hazard radio alarms in tornado alley.

Previous big outbreaks lead to the eventual creation of better warning systems, better radar, and other features of today's response system that regularly save lives every year. BUT ... the system is not yet complete. TWO huge areas of risk were highlighted by this past outbreak and others.

#1 - Night Twisters ... too many people don't own or know how to use weather radios, so if they aren't awake, watching TV or internet or have their cell nearby, they receive no warning. A device that, like a smoke alarm, was a) required to be a part of every dwelling, b) sounded a very loud alarm when triggered and c) programmed to go off when the most severe weather warnings were issued for the area in which the device was located would assure that alarms were indeed heard by even sleeping people in the path of dangerous floods, twisters, etc. Made in large numbers, such devices would cost little more than smoke alarms.

#2 - Lack of Safe Shelter - F4 and F5 twisters can completely destroy homes which are otherwise suitable dwellings. Estimates suggest it can cost $5000 to build a safe room, which not all can afford. Neighborhood safe shelters, no more than 5 minutes walk from any home in their service area, could be built to house dozens safely at much lest cost per family.

Without these two precautions, tragedies like those which happened this week will happen again.

PUSH for these things. They will save lives. Hundreds of lives.

If you travel in storm prone areas and away from home, you can get a portable, battery-operated weather radio. When I'm on the road, it is always with me.
Sunday morning on the East coast of USA, greets friends and lurkers.
Quoting aquak9:
Sunday morning on the East coast of USA, greets friends and lurkers.
Good morning Aqua.
Quoting NWeatherNut:
#2 - Lack of Safe Shelter - F4 and F5 twisters can completely destroy homes which are otherwise suitable dwellings. Estimates suggest it can cost $5000 to build a safe room, which not all can afford. Neighborhood safe shelters, no more than 5 minutes walk from any home in their service area, could be built to house dozens safely at much lest cost per family.

Without these two precautions, tragedies like those which happened this week will happen again.

PUSH for these things. They will save lives. Hundreds of lives.

Unfortunately, nothing will work if people don't respond. I noticed that one man had a shelter, urged his neighbors to join him in it, but they said they would "ride it out."
540. P451
Morning Aqua. 42F up here in SE NY. Nice crisp weather perfect for the morning jog. 65F and sunny on tap. Perfect Spring day to get some yard work in.
Hi CI.

Go in peace, carry on, ya'll.
Quoting aquak9:
Sunday morning on the East coast of USA, greets friends and lurkers.

Evening (raises cuppa Hot chocco)
Tornado watches already out. When is this going to end for the south?
Quoting lhwhelk:

Unfortunately, nothing will work if people don't respond. I noticed that one man had a shelter, urged his neighbors to join him in it, but they said they would "ride it out."

Should it become mandatory for all new dwellings be made with a reenforced basement or safe room with a proper closeable hatch not just a door at the top of the stairs?

The people that have lost there homes, will they rebuild? if they rebuild, would they be in favor of this.
If it costs a little extra yet can save a life, wouldn't the extra cost be worth it?
Quoting beell:
It's possible there were more tornadoes in the 1974 Super Outbreak that weren't accounted for, all at the lower end of the Fujita-Pearson scale. I compared the category distributions of several high-count outbreaks between 1992 and 2008, and came up with the following averages:

Just curious, Neap. Where did those numbers come from? Several? Not all of them?

I looked for outbreaks that had more than 100 confirmed tornadoes, that were not hurricane-driven (different dynamics), that weren't spaced too closely together in time, and that were true outbreaks as opposed to outbreak sequences.

As I said, it was just a quick and dirty comparison. Maybe if I have some time later, I'll do a real comparison of distributions. Or, better yet, find one that someone else has already completed. ;-) I suspect that every outbreak follows a fairly similar distribution curve--including this week's, once the surveys are completed--and that the distribution for the 1974 Super Outbreak would be extremely anomalous.
545. beell
Quoting Neapolitan:

I looked for outbreaks that had more than 100 confirmed tornadoes, that were not hurricane-driven (different dynamics), that weren't spaced too closely together in time, and that were true outbreaks as opposed to outbreak sequences.

As I said, it was just a quick and dirty comparison. Maybe if I have some time later, I'll do a real comparison of distributions. Or, better yet, find one that someone else has already completed. ;-) I suspect that every outbreak follows a fairly similar distribution curve--including this week's, once the surveys are completed--and that the distribution for the 1974 Super Outbreak would be extremely anomalous.


Thanks, Neap. All very sound reasons for inclusion/exclusion. At first glance, the data and years seemed more random than it actually was, I suspect.
546. IKE
I had 1.49 inches of rain in April...at my location. Inland Florida panhandle.
547. IKE

just saw a advertisement saying there are other ways than taxing big oil to make this work. wonder who paid for the time slot? instead of 'drill baby drill' i say we save our resources unfortunately that means continued high prices of oil but our children are going to need to use fuel too. at least we would save them something
Morning, all.

Quoting NWeatherNut:
Having survived the Super Outbreak of 1974, I was marked as a young boy with a respect for tornadoes that bordered on overwhelming dread at times. Over the next 30 years, I would see, hear or be "take shelter" close to 13 tornadoes. To say I've given them a lot of thought throughout my life would be an understatement. I have two recommendations to those of you in positions of influence in the meteorological community:

1) Promote the construction of community shelters in tornado alley.
2) Promote the requirement of in-home hazard radio alarms in tornado alley.

Previous big outbreaks lead to the eventual creation of better warning systems, better radar, and other features of today's response system that regularly save lives every year. BUT ... the system is not yet complete. TWO huge areas of risk were highlighted by this past outbreak and others.

#1 - Night Twisters ... too many people don't own or know how to use weather radios, so if they aren't awake, watching TV or internet or have their cell nearby, they receive no warning. A device that, like a smoke alarm, was a) required to be a part of every dwelling, b) sounded a very loud alarm when triggered and c) programmed to go off when the most severe weather warnings were issued for the area in which the device was located would assure that alarms were indeed heard by even sleeping people in the path of dangerous floods, twisters, etc. Made in large numbers, such devices would cost little more than smoke alarms.

#2 - Lack of Safe Shelter - F4 and F5 twisters can completely destroy homes which are otherwise suitable dwellings. Estimates suggest it can cost $5000 to build a safe room, which not all can afford. Neighborhood safe shelters, no more than 5 minutes walk from any home in their service area, could be built to house dozens safely at much lest cost per family.

Without these two precautions, tragedies like those which happened this week will happen again.

PUSH for these things. They will save lives. Hundreds of lives.
I really see this as a valuable idea, especially in neighbourhoods where mobile homes or wooden construction are the norm. Last night I was shocked to see reports of a mobile home with 11 pple sheltering in it. At least 4 deaths in the total came from this one home alone. It should be a requirement for mobile home communities anywhere that tornadoes regularly hit to have a community storm basement / shelter.
550. IKE
What's amazing about this blog is how well it works during tornado outbreaks. I see no wish-casting of them...rooting for them to hit me or you.

Fast forward 3-4 months and look at how crazy this blog gets during hurricane season. Wishcasting for systems to move west...hit south Florida(JFV), arguments and blog bans.

It gets out-of-control and it's hard to stay around here with the craziness.

Not sure why it's like that...the difference. Maybe it's the length of time involved to follow hurricanes and root for them vs. the minute by minute length of most tornadoes.


Quoting IKE:
What's amazing about this blog is how well it works during tornado outbreaks. I see no wish-casting of them...rooting for them to hit me or you.

Fast forward 3-4 months and look at how crazy this blog gets during hurricane season. Wishcasting for systems to move west...hit south Florida(JFV), arguments and blog bans.

It gets out-of-control and it's hard to stay around here with the craziness.

Not sure why it's like that...the difference. Maybe it's the length of time involved to follow hurricanes and root for them vs. the minute by minute length of most tornadoes.




Most insightful comment of the year!
Quoting IKE:
I had 1.49 inches of rain in April...at my location. Inland Florida panhandle.

Good Morning Ike, Been awhile, I had .67 of rain in April.Zephyrhills fl. But just 20 miles to my sw they had over 4 or5 inches.Tampa Crazy thunderstorms.
Quoting IKE:
What's amazing about this blog is how well it works during tornado outbreaks. I see no wish-casting of them...rooting for them to hit me or you.

Fast forward 3-4 months and look at how crazy this blog gets during hurricane season. Wishcasting for systems to move west...hit south Florida(JFV), arguments and blog bans.

It gets out-of-control and it's hard to stay around here with the craziness.

Not sure why it's like that...the difference. Maybe it's the length of time involved to follow hurricanes and root for them vs. the minute by minute length of most tornadoes.




Maybe you need to update your ignore list.
Quoting presslord:


Most insightful comment of the year!


for a good read, an academic article which I think sheds some light on our irrational behaviour as human beings can be found at:

http://www.edge.org/?q=con-detail&cid=451


unfortunately I can't find the link I followed from above to risk assessment and prediction which was a bit more directly relevant (I think) to Ike's point... TMI
Taking the kids to the amusment park today.Gonna need the Jackets.Looks like a cool start to May.a cool start usually means a "Hot" end to May so we'll see.
Link
3D NEXRAD Radar
This is an experimental BETA project.

About This Product:

The Unity 3D Web Player is currently only available for Mac and Windows.
The 3D interface shows 3 iso-surfaces of radar dBZ (3D surfaces of equal radar echo/precipitation strength). These surfaces are 20 (green), 30 (yellow), and 50 (red) dBZ.
A standard 2D radar image covers the ground.
USGS terrain is drawn at 30 arc-second resolution to show topography
Place names are drawn in white text
Counties are drawn as black lines

Interface Controls:

The product employs a first person shooting (FPS) interface where the mouse controls direction of your eye, and the arrow keys or "wsad" keys control movement.
WASD

Note that you can "fly" as there is no gravity.




557. IKE
Aussie...I have around 100 on it....some from 2006. I probably do need to update it. I think I'm missing your point though?

Good morning to all and thanks presslord!
Quoting IKE:
What's amazing about this blog is how well it works during tornado outbreaks. I see no wish-casting of them...rooting for them to hit me or you.

Fast forward 3-4 months and look at how crazy this blog gets during hurricane season. Wishcasting for systems to move west...hit south Florida(JFV), arguments and blog bans.

It gets out-of-control and it's hard to stay around here with the craziness.

Not sure why it's like that...the difference. Maybe it's the length of time involved to follow hurricanes and root for them vs. the minute by minute length of most tornadoes.


I think u hit it... it's the length of time. What I noticed with the tornado warnings is that they were popping up so fast there was little / no time for speculation about where they would go or who they would hit. But I'd also contribute some of the TC seasonal craziness to the fact that we have more teens on here in August than in April. We have some fantastic teen bloggers here, but being off from school or just back in school gives lots of scope for the non-serious crew to do damage.
Unfortunately quite a bit of the craziness can be attributed to non-teens, aka "adults"... lol
Quoting BahaHurican:
I think u hit it... it's the length of time. What I noticed with the tornado warnings is that they were popping up so fast there was little / no time for speculation about where they would go or who they would hit. But I'd also contribute some of the TC seasonal craziness to the fact that we have more teens on here in August than in April. We have some fantastic teen bloggers here, but being off from school or just back in school gives lots of scope for the non-serious crew to do damage.
I think a lot of the craziness stems from the model tracks and the speculation of the relative value of each of them. This is an off-shoot of the time factor that IKE mentioned.

Its just that these 'nados follow the XTRAP too closely...
"They got sucked out of the basement and blown clear over to our side of the street," Harper said.

Link

Scary. EF5?
>> Promote the requirement of in-home hazard radio alarms in tornado alley...like a smoke alarm, was a) required to be a part of every dwelling, b) sounded a very loud alarm when triggered and c) programmed to go off when the most severe weather warnings were issued for the area in which the device was located

good idea but most would disable. The warnings are for counties and some would go out to a clear starry night and go back in and take a baseball bat to the ceiling to knock the shrieking thing off. I remember the sirens goings off in east jefferson for a tornado in west jefferson going north east. missed us by 25 miles. but once activated the alarms are county wide. I think the public would complain about being required to but an alarm. Of course they should have insurance etc The most callous would say if no alarm no assistance. I just dont know...
Is that 3D Nexrad radar brand new on here as of today? I had not noticed it before, you must download the unitywebpayer®, the radar shows up flat where you see N,S,E,W and then can maneuver with the mouse, arrows and wasd keys like a video game and see within the storms from any angle.
Quoting IKE:
What's amazing about this blog is how well it works during tornado outbreaks. I see no wish-casting of them...rooting for them to hit me or you.

Fast forward 3-4 months and look at how crazy this blog gets during hurricane season. Wishcasting for systems to move west...hit south Florida(JFV), arguments and blog bans.

It gets out-of-control and it's hard to stay around here with the craziness.

Not sure why it's like that...the difference. Maybe it's the length of time involved to follow hurricanes and root for them vs. the minute by minute length of most tornadoes.




What is to be said about tornadoes vs the craziness we get in here during hurricane season is the abrupt nature of how they form and where they strike. If we look at it, people are guessing what puff of cloud is going to do what and where during hurricane season. Where as with the tornado outbreak that we have just witnessed, its the aftermath that leaves so many in awe of what mother nature can do.

Ike, simply said its the time frame between each that differs. There is more time to argue and wishcast about what this depression or that invest is going to do. Tornadoes are abrupt and deadly, there is nothing for people to argue about. Its sadly, that simple.
Looks like Cyclone Oz is still out there.

Facebook Update: LIVE SEVERE WEATHER WEBCAM OPERATIONAL - 5/1/2011 http://www.7674u.com Winter Storm Warning for Northern New Mexico. Amazing...it is snowing hard...and it is May 1st!
Quoting snotly:
"They got sucked out of the basement and blown clear over to our side of the street," Harper said.

Link

Scary. EF5?

WOW, thanks (I think). That poor town and the towns around it also effected by the same tornado.
Explain this to me, with the amount of damage that there is. Why would Alabama tell those that are most experienced with finding people alive after natural disasters to stay home. I am referencing the City of Miami and Metro Dade Urban Search Teams. They were told to stand down, that they were not needed to help in the search of victims. That makes no sense, for a state in such disarray and wanting help, why take a team that has helped everywhere including in Haiti and tell them to stand down when they were ready to head that way.
Quoting snotly:
"They got sucked out of the basement and blown clear over to our side of the street," Harper said.

Link

Scary. EF5?
I think this was upgraded yesterday.... Lemme check....

TORNADO 5...HACKLEBURG TORNADO (MARION COUNTY)

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: APRIL 27, 2011
EVENT TYPE: EF-5 TORNADO
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): GREATER THAN 200
INJURIES/FATALITIES: AT LEAST 25 FATALITIES. NUMEROUS INJURIES.
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 34.0880/-88.1328 AT 305 PM
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 34.3109/-87.7858 AT 328 PM
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 25.2 MILES IN MARION COUNTY
DAMAGE WIDTH: 3/4 MILE
NOTE: CONTINUED INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS SURVEYED DAMAGE ACROSS MARION
COUNTY IMPACTING THE HACKLEBURG AREA. IT HAS BEEN DETERMINED THAT THE
DAMAGE WAS CONSISTENT WITH A VIOLENT TORNADO. WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
GREATER THAN 200 MPH. THE TORNADO APPEARED TO TOUCHDOWN SOUTHWEST
OF HAMILTON NEAR HIGHWAY 19 AND COUNTY ROAD 22. TREE DAMAGE WAS
NOTED IN THIS AREA. THE TORNADO WIDENED CONSIDERABLY AND BECAME
DEADLY AS IT MOVED ALONG HIGHWAY 43 SOUTHWEST OF HACKLEBURG. THE
TORNADO MOVED INTO HACKLEBURG WHERE SEVERAL SUBDIVISIONS WERE
DESTROYED. THE HACKLEBURG HIGH SCHOOL AND THE WRANGLER PLANT WERE
DESTROYED. THE TORNADO MOVED NORTHEAST AND GENERALLY PARALLELED
HIGHWAY 43 AND MOVED TOWARD PHIL CAMPBELL WHERE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE
CONTINUED. ALONG THE DAMAGE PATH, THOUSANDS OF TREES WERE
DOWNED...SEVERAL HUNDRED STRUCTURES WERE DAMAGED, AT LEAST 100 OF
THESE STRUCTURES WERE COMPLETELY DESTROYED AS MANY HOMES WERE
LEVELED.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS...ALONG WITH THE FOREMOST
EXPERT IN STORM DAMAGE ASSESSMENT REVIEWED THE DAMAGE IN HACKLEBURG
IN MARION COUNTY. THE MAIN INDICATORS OF HACKLEBURG HAVING EF-5
DAMAGE IS THE TOSSING OF VEHICLES UPWARDS OF 150-200 YARDS...ONE
WELL BUILT HOME WITH 4 SIDES BRICK WAS COMPLETELY LEVELED AND THE
DEBRIS FROM THE HOME WAS TOSSED TO THE NORTH OVER 40 YARDS...AND
THERE WAS LARGE AMOUNTS OF WIND ROWING...THE STREWING OF BUILDING
MATERIALS IN STRAIGHT LINES...AROUND THE CITY OF HACKLEBURG.

Caicos Sailor I enjoyed reading that link you posted.
Yes, unfortunately, we are biased and always looking for more evidence to justify ourselves.
Selective reasoning is another term you can use for what they are describing.
It is acknowledged that historians put together "facts" according to which faction they adhere.
Einstein was not only a physicist and somewhat of a mathematician but also a philosopher who isolated and described this phenomenon pretty well.
I think that's pretty much why we shouldn't get too upset when someone will not agree with us; it is quite possible that they can't!

What Ike is describing is possibly a combination of morbid curiosity and thrill seeking; it may be why people like scarey movies, too.
Having grown up along Long Island Sound as a child and lived along the coast of Florida for the other half of my life, there is a genuine excitement infusing the atmosphere when a storm arrives. Physically, you feel the pressure drop, you see the sky darken the clouds begin to swirl, you smell the rain. The problem is, when the storm event becomes so strong it causes destruction and loss of life, we despair.
Einstein also had a theory about everything containing its opposite. I think when someone can try to see both sides of an issue balance is possible. But balance is not always possible because there are always extremes or catalysts, but eventually the opposite will happen and another balance is reached until the next event comes along, and so on and so forth.
Chicklits post# 569..Cool post Chicklit..:)
Quoting snotly:
"They got sucked out of the basement and blown clear over to our side of the street," Harper said.

Link

Scary. EF5?
Sucked out of the basement....Some of those folks didnt have a chance, just horrible.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I think this was upgraded yesterday.... Lemme check....

TORNADO 5...HACKLEBURG TORNADO (MARION COUNTY)

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: APRIL 27, 2011
EVENT TYPE: EF-5 TORNADO
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): GREATER THAN 200
INJURIES/FATALITIES: AT LEAST 25 FATALITIES. NUMEROUS INJURIES.
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 34.0880/-88.1328 AT 305 PM
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 34.3109/-87.7858 AT 328 PM
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 25.2 MILES IN MARION COUNTY
DAMAGE WIDTH: 3/4 MILE
NOTE: CONTINUED INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS SURVEYED DAMAGE ACROSS MARION
COUNTY IMPACTING THE HACKLEBURG AREA. IT HAS BEEN DETERMINED THAT THE
DAMAGE WAS CONSISTENT WITH A VIOLENT TORNADO. WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
GREATER THAN 200 MPH. THE TORNADO APPEARED TO TOUCHDOWN SOUTHWEST
OF HAMILTON NEAR HIGHWAY 19 AND COUNTY ROAD 22. TREE DAMAGE WAS
NOTED IN THIS AREA. THE TORNADO WIDENED CONSIDERABLY AND BECAME
DEADLY AS IT MOVED ALONG HIGHWAY 43 SOUTHWEST OF HACKLEBURG. THE
TORNADO MOVED INTO HACKLEBURG WHERE SEVERAL SUBDIVISIONS WERE
DESTROYED. THE HACKLEBURG HIGH SCHOOL AND THE WRANGLER PLANT WERE
DESTROYED. THE TORNADO MOVED NORTHEAST AND GENERALLY PARALLELED
HIGHWAY 43 AND MOVED TOWARD PHIL CAMPBELL WHERE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE
CONTINUED. ALONG THE DAMAGE PATH, THOUSANDS OF TREES WERE
DOWNED...SEVERAL HUNDRED STRUCTURES WERE DAMAGED, AT LEAST 100 OF
THESE STRUCTURES WERE COMPLETELY DESTROYED AS MANY HOMES WERE
LEVELED.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS...ALONG WITH THE FOREMOST
EXPERT IN STORM DAMAGE ASSESSMENT REVIEWED THE DAMAGE IN HACKLEBURG
IN MARION COUNTY. THE MAIN INDICATORS OF HACKLEBURG HAVING EF-5
DAMAGE IS THE TOSSING OF VEHICLES UPWARDS OF 150-200 YARDS...ONE
WELL BUILT HOME WITH 4 SIDES BRICK WAS COMPLETELY LEVELED AND THE
DEBRIS FROM THE HOME WAS TOSSED TO THE NORTH OVER 40 YARDS...AND
THERE WAS LARGE AMOUNTS OF WIND ROWING...THE STREWING OF BUILDING
MATERIALS IN STRAIGHT LINES...AROUND THE CITY OF HACKLEBURG.




boy you are slow LOL yup they did upgraded it i was the 1st too post it
I think they're going to end up saying that there was an EF-5 Smithville-Hackleburg tornado.... and there is the possibility that the potentially EF-4 damage in the Huntsville area [Tanner] came from the same storm.
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Explain this to me, with the amount of damage that there is. Why would Alabama tell those that are most experienced with finding people alive after natural disasters to stay home. I am referencing the City of Miami and Metro Dade Urban Search Teams. They were told to stand down, that they were not needed to help in the search of victims. That makes no sense, for a state in such disarray and wanting help, why take a team that has helped everywhere including in Haiti and tell them to stand down when they were ready to head that way.

Could be that they had enough help for that purpose. They need more help in other areas like rebuilding, restoration, linemen, carpenters etc. Finding the dead is probably not that difficult in those circumstances and many professional teams were already there. I think the team from Fairfax, VA is there, among others.
Quoting DestinJeff:



xtrap is not a model.



... yep. just like riding a bike.

You just had too, didn't you? LOL
Quoting DestinJeff:



xtrap is not a model.



... yep. just like riding a bike.
Or like riding this D,J..Please worship...
Quoting DestinJeff:


we all have our roles, i suppose. it was makes the blog a "community".

Yes we do.


Get your spelling and grammar right.
More rain for areas that dont need it..
Quoting Tazmanian:



boy you are slow LOL yup they did upgraded it i was the 1st too post it
I'm not slow.... I saw when u posted the upgrade yesterday, but obviously the person I replied to did not.... I was REposting the info for his benefit.... lol I remember at the time saying that this was the same tornado as the one in Smithville. That one tornadic cell did damage in MS, at least two separate areas in AL, and continued into TN.... still being surveyed...
Quoting DestinJeff:


the reason i find that chart so funny is that there is no frame of reference. it just stays the same year after year, with its "per 100 years".

When was that thing made? It seems the peaks and valleys would adjust, even ever so slightly over the course of a few years. I know, I know.

Plus, that thing is trotted out as the Tropical Gospel so much...I had to take action last year. I like to think I succeeded in making it a punchline more than a solid reference.
I remember getting a good laugh when you posted "The Gospel Chart" at a time when I really needed a laugh..The chart is relatively worthless. There are years were October blows September away with the number of tropical cyclones. This chart has been updated fairly recently.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm not slow.... I saw when u posted the upgrade yesterday, but obviously the person I replied to did not.... I was REposting the info for his benefit.... lol I remember at the time saying that this was the same tornado as the one in Smithville. That one tornadic cell did damage in MS, at least two separate areas in AL, and continued into TN.... still being surveyed...
....Slacker!...jk...really...jk...:)
Hmmm.... somebody was asking for a radar composite of the storm activities on 27/4?

I think Knoxville NWS has something u may find useful...

Link

I think the best radar is the 3rd one down. It ends at 5p.m. CDT, which means we only see the edge of the Tuscaloosa storm heading NE, but the earlier storms in the Tennessee Valley / N Alabama are pretty clear.
Quoting Patrap:
GOM Sea Height Anomalies Maps









GOM Surface Dynamics Reports
08/29/2005 Report


why do I get the feeling this is going to be a crazy hurricane season.
i hate it when surveye take a long time
why do I get the feeling this is going to be a crazy hurricane season.

so that it will fit in with the rest of the crazy weather and conditions that have been happening this year...
Quoting islander101010:
just saw a advertisement saying there are other ways than taxing big oil to make this work. wonder who paid for the time slot? instead of 'drill baby drill' i say we save our resources unfortunately that means continued high prices of oil but our children are going to need to use fuel too. at least we would save them something


Re: saving, I'm not sure you realize the level of production from shale oil reservoirs. It's VERY significant now and as little as 2 years ago they (shale gas/oil) were NOT widely recognized in our own industry.

One thing time has shown is that oil is always "going away", but folks are figuring out new and better methods of finding and extracting. The US is producing more crude than it has in the last 8 yrs.
And the economy's in the Dakota's are booming.
Quoting Neapolitan:

I looked for outbreaks that had more than 100 confirmed tornadoes, that were not hurricane-driven (different dynamics), that weren't spaced too closely together in time, and that were true outbreaks as opposed to outbreak sequences.

As I said, it was just a quick and dirty comparison. Maybe if I have some time later, I'll do a real comparison of distributions. Or, better yet, find one that someone else has already completed. ;-) I suspect that every outbreak follows a fairly similar distribution curve--including this week's, once the surveys are completed--and that the distribution for the 1974 Super Outbreak would be extremely anomalous.


Seems like reasonable analysis to me. I appreciate the use of data as an engineer!
Good post - keep it up.
Tuscaloosa Morning news conference Link
Buildings in Tuscaloosa damaged or destroyed est. 5713
Confirmed fatalities 39
injuries treated 1000+
Total missing increased to 570
Overall event
Death Toll From US Tornado Outbreak Climbs To 355

By Mark Dunphy - Sat Apr 30, 4:01 pm
New figures released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Weather Service (NWS) indicate that this week’s severe storms across southern US states were the deadliest in 86 years.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said that there were 211 tornadoes on April 27-28, 2011. During the multi-day period of April 26-28, The National Weather Service (NWS) estimates there were a total of 288 tornadoes. The largest previous number of tornadoes on record in one event occurred from April 3-4, 1974, with 148 tornadoes.

The death toll at present is 355 people, and rising. This makes the event the second deadliest tornado outbreak on record. The April 27-28, 2011, tornado outbreak is the deadliest since the March 18, 1925, tornado outbreak which resulted in747 fatalities across 7 states (including the Tri State Tornado). In March 21, 1932, a tornado outbreak resulted in 332 fatalities.

Based on combined NOAA, historical research records and current fatality estimates, the April 27-28, 2011, tornado outbreak ranks 6th in single day total fatalities in the United States history. The historic research records extend back to 1680.

DEATH TOLL BY US STATE:
Alabama – 254
Tennessee – 34
Mississippi – 34
Georgia – 15
Arkansas – 11
Virginia – 5
Kentucky – 1
Louisiana – 1
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0682
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011


AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...FAR SERN OK...SWRN/CNTRL AR...FAR WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261...

VALID 011712Z - 011845Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 261
CONTINUES.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING AS A COLD FRONT
FROM 15 E JBR TO 30 W PBF...AS A STATIONARY FRONT FARTHER SOUTHWEST
TO 25 NW TYR...AND AS A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO CNTRL TX. A MODEST
LLJ /SSWLY FLOW AROUND 30 KT PER FORT WORTH AND SHREVEPORT VWP DATA/
ATOP THE NWD-SLOPED FRONTAL SFC IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO
REGENERATE IN NERN SECTIONS OF WW 261...AND FARTHER NE INTO CNTRL AR
AND FAR WRN TN.

WHILE THE ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE WANED ELSEWHERE TEMPORARILY...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE NEAR
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SFC BOUNDARY INTO THE WARM/UNSTABLE SECTOR.
HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS HAVE BEEN NOTED NEAR AND WEST OF THE
SHREVEPORT AREA. WITH CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION OWING TO
INSOLATION...AS WELL AS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL AND
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ WITH THE
THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL OCCUR NEAR THE FRONT AND WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR. THUS...WW 261 WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED BY A TORNADO WATCH
WITHIN AN HOUR.

..COHEN.. 05/01/2011


ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

LAT...LON 34929091 34509116 34129147 33469152 32709215 32109316
31759445 31669604 32209683 32389782 32859778 33419719
33709618 34159456 34729310 35319261 35969106 36129008
35738933 35219001 34929091
598. IKE
"""Death Toll From US Tornado Outbreak Climbs To 355""".......

Terrible.
Quoting hydrus:
....Slacker!...jk...really...jk...:)


...I'm not slow

I'm just half fast...

CRS
LOL.... afternoon, CRS...
Quoting IKE:
"""Death Toll From US Tornado Outbreak Climbs To 355""".......

Terrible.
and if ya add the missing to that
603. IKE
Got this from Crown weather....

New Tornado Watch To Be Issued By 1:15 pm Central Time For
NE Texas, Southern Arkansas & Northern Louisiana
Written by Rob Lightbown on May 1st, 2011

Latest visible satellite imagery show breaks in the clouds near and southeast
of a surface boundary that stretches from northeast Texas through Arkansas.
Horizontal convective rolls have been noted near and west of the Shreveport area
where the amosphere is unstable.
The atmosphere is expected to become even more unstable this afternoon and
the combination of convergence, the unstable atmosphere and strong vertical wind
shear will increase the likelihood for supercell thunderstorms to develop from
northeastern Texas through southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. A Tornado
Watch will likely be issued soon by the Storm Prediction Center, so stay tuned.

605. IKE

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and if ya add the missing to that
It may reach over 500 by the time it's over.
Windy day down here near Houston. Hull airport was 26 mph gusting to 34. At least it is not overcast, less moisture going north I think.
610. beell
Quoting IKE:
Got this from Crown weather....

New Tornado Watch To Be Issued By 1:15 pm Central Time For
NE Texas, Southern Arkansas & Northern Louisiana
Written by Rob Lightbown on May 1st, 2011

Latest visible satellite imagery show breaks in the clouds near and southeast
of a surface boundary that stretches from northeast Texas through Arkansas.
Horizontal convective rolls have been noted near and west of the Shreveport area
where the amosphere is unstable.
The atmosphere is expected to become even more unstable this afternoon and
the combination of convergence, the unstable atmosphere and strong vertical wind
shear will increase the likelihood for supercell thunderstorms to develop from
northeastern Texas through southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. A Tornado
Watch will likely be issued soon by the Storm Prediction Center, so stay tuned.



Sounds alot like the Mesoscale Discussion posted @ 597.
611. beell
And there it is.

click for full ww
Quoting beell:


Sounds alot like the Mesoscale Discussion posted @ 597.

Rob Lightbown takes credit as the author.
Enhanced F Scale for Tornado Damage

An update to the the original F-scale by a team of meteorologists and wind engineers, to be implemented in the U.S. on 1 February 2007.

All dem "authors" follow the SPC Discussions
Quoting IKE:
"""Death Toll From US Tornado Outbreak Climbs To 355""".......

Terrible.

And that was the total from yesterday's NOAA news release.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and if ya add the missing to that



Just in Tuscaloosa alone, missing went up to 750
618. beell
Quoting bappit:

Rob Lightbown takes credit as the author.


May not be "taking credit" as much as paraphrasing. I think we all do that to a certain extent with "official" publications. As long as you understand or make an attempt at understanding-no problem. On occasion, you may even venture to disagree with the "experts" and be correct!
Didn't I see somewhere they were going to start releasing the names of those who died in the tornado outbreak today?

I'm also assuming they have already cross-referenced the list of deceased with list of missing....
Re: Mr. Lightbourne, I'm sure he wrote the title... and then, how many different ways can u paraphrase that discussion....

LOL

But I guess one should give credit to sources....

Link

List, photos and description of victims.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Didn't I see somewhere they were going to start releasing the names of those who died in the tornado outbreak today?

I'm also assuming they have already cross-referenced the list of deceased with list of missing....
Hmmmm ... if I paraphrased like that in college on an English paper, I could have been in some serious trouble. I'd advise our WUBA college students to be careful about their quotes.
623. beell
Quoting BahaHurican:
Re: Mr. Lightbourne, I'm sure he wrote the title... and then, how many different ways can u paraphrase that discussion....

LOL

But I guess one should give credit to sources....



(*snicker*)
Just in Tuscaloosa alone, missing went up to 750

and the tears start again...:(
WOOHOOOOOO!

40% chance of rain tomorrow in the Houston area!
626. IKE

Quoting bappit:

Rob Lightbown takes credit as the author.
If he's basically copying it, he should give the sources.
627. beell
Quoting IKE:

If he's basically copying it, he should give the sources.


Actually, IKE, I agree with you and others. Don't know if Rob covers severe weather that much. Maybe he felt the need to update his blog and was short on time. A link to the MCD would have made it crystal clear.
629. IKE

Quoting beell:


Actually, IKE, I agree with you and others. Don't know if Rob covers severe weather that much. Maybe he felt the need to update his blog and was short on time. A link to the MCD would have made it crystal clear.
I just happened to see his post on my facebook page. I didn't see post 597 before.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Watch the entire video, and you'll see the extreme violence. Several homes were wiped completely clean down to their concrete pads, and--as you can see--a large van with a full load of drywall was picked up and tossed several hundred yards. This was Canada's first F5 ever--and that nation sees several hundred tornadoes each year.

Here's one sample damage photo from this page: http://www.pbase.com/swp/elie_manitoba_torna do_damage

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.

I've seen many photos of tornadic supercells here in the states that formed along the dryline so had very limited moisture to work with, yet nevertheless produced tornadoes (often with nearly invisible funnels) and/or huge hail. For instance, this supercell spawned a tornado:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.

If you've not spent any time in the spring on the plains east of the Rockies, you should do it sometime. The structure and behavior of the storms there is often completely different from the tropical ones we see in Florida.


I was basing what I said on the strength of the tornado on visual I haven't seen an F5 tornado that skinny before, or an F4 for that matter (the old tornado scale).

No doubt though, the damage it produced does qualify, I hadn't seen the damage when I posted the comment.

And yes the storms are completely different, I have been intrigued by that difference for a while. Some thunderstorms in plains do get very powerful and threatening in appearance and produce lots of rain. I was more of just referring to the moisture starved thunderstorms that look rather lame in comparison and how it is amazing to see them produce large tornadoes. Like I said its based on dynamics.

The severe weather outbreak in the deep south had lot of deep tropical moisture to work with in the low to mid levels and dry air aloft, so the thunderstorms were more moist and tropical-like thunderstorms. Just like how most thunderstorms are like in the tropics. Accept these storms also had dynamics that highly favored monster rotating super cells capable of producing and did produce catastrophic high end tornadoes.



I'm glad that here in Florida, such kind of tornadoes as well as large hail are more rare. We get very exciting storms without having to worry about that junk most of the time.




BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
126 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CROSS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHERN LEE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT

* AT 127 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PING PONG SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 17 MILES WEST OF
WHEATLEY...OR 7 MILES WEST OF COTTON PLANT...AND MOVING EAST AT 50
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FORREST
CITY...MADISON...PALESTINE...PARKIN...WYNNE AND VILLAGE CREEK STATE
PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A STORM SHELTER OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

.DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

632. IKE

Quoting emcf30:
Link

List, photos and description of victims.
Put a face to the numbers and it makes it even worse.
Zoom in for close up looks at the damage around Tuscaloosa using Gigapan photos. Click the link below each project to launch in full screen view.
First part of local forecast discussion doesn't sound promising for Houston rain.

When front nears cll...air mass will have limited cap and think there will be a decent chance of thunderstorms along and possibly ahead of front. Chances will decrease as the front continues southeast...as air mass more capped and given loss of daytime heating...so by time front reaches Houston area airports...thunderstorms not expected.

But the news gets better further down.

During that early Monday through middle-Tuesday time frame where the boundary will stall in the vicinity of the Gulf Coast...warm air advection will take over and produce the highest threat for rain this region has seen in quite some time.





I'm still shocked by the devastation, its just incredible the power there. You would think the damage was done by an air strike.
Yeah, I'm watching that D3 cell on level 2 while waiting on another round of storms behind it to hit me.
639. beell
Quoting bappit:
First part of local forecast discussion doesn't sound promising for Houston rain.

When front nears cll...air mass will have limited cap and think there will be a decent chance of thunderstorms along and possibly ahead of front. Chances will decrease as the front continues southeast...as air mass more capped and given loss of daytime heating...so by time front reaches Houston area airports...thunderstorms not expected.

But the news gets better further down.

During that early Monday through middle-Tuesday time frame where the boundary will stall in the vicinity of the Gulf Coast...warm air advection will take over and produce the highest threat for rain this region has seen in quite some time.







As long as the cooler, dryer air moving S over W TX does not slip around in behind the boundary from the west while it slowly makes its way to/just off the coast-we're in bizness!
For those who Attack or "Troll" the Blog:

Means of Action

Problems in the blog will be handled in the following ways.

1.Ignore - Having your blog removed from the directory, removing easy access to it. This is more like a warning and typically lasts 7 days, if there are no further problems.

2.Ban - This is strong action, as it removes your member handle from the blogs completely, blocking access to all entries. The length of a ban is dependent upon the severity of the violation.

3.IP Ban - People who repeatedly circumvent bans will be the recipients of an IP ban, which blocks access to the entire site.

4.Troll Wipe - This is the most extreme action an Admin can take, and it is reserved for flagrant, repetitive violations of the Terms of Service. This will remove the user completely, making it impossible for them to access that member handle again.
A Merriam-Webster definition of devastate:
to reduce to chaos, disorder, or helplessness.

The EF-4 description lists "devasting damage". EF-5 is "incredible damage"--as in the tsunami's effect in Japan--which can go way beyond mere chaos and helplessness.

Quoting Jedkins01:
I'm still shocked by the devastation, its just incredible the power there. You would think the damage was done by an air strike.
there's even more from where that come from. its to get worse, you know that right?
Quoting sammywammybamy:
For those who Attack or "Troll" the Blog:

Means of Action

Problems in the blog will be handled in the following ways.

1.Ignore - Having your blog removed from the directory, removing easy access to it. This is more like a warning and typically lasts 7 days, if there are no further problems.

2.Ban - This is strong action, as it removes your member handle from the blogs completely, blocking access to all entries. The length of a ban is dependent upon the severity of the violation.

3.IP Ban - People who repeatedly circumvent bans will be the recipients of an IP ban, which blocks access to the entire site.

4.Troll Wipe - This is the most extreme action an Admin can take, and it is reserved for flagrant, repetitive violations of the Terms of Service. This will remove the user completely, making it impossible for them to access that member handle again.




RWES=replace with empty space
I figured the death toll, injury and missing count would have leveled out by now. This is getting more ridiculous and harder to read about by the day.
Good to see they never gave up looking:

Investigators find black box from Air France crash
Quoting IKE:

Put a face to the numbers and it makes it even worse.
I don't know.... there's something about this kind of disaster where numbers just "pile up" that makes me want to put a name and face to the people who died... I dunno, makes it seem less impersonal... like each person is an important loved one for somebody, and not just a statistic.

But it doesn't make it easier... looking at the family of 5, the little 4- and 1- year-olds, is heartbreaking....
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Good to see they never gave up looking:

Investigators find black box from Air France crash

That's amazing. Edit: and very good news.
Quoting emcf30:



Just in Tuscaloosa alone, missing went up to 750


750?!?! Holy crap!
Not sure if it has been posted yet, but the NWS in Jackson has a very detailed page of tornado surveys with location, distance, strength, size and pictures. You can click on each tornado survey and see pictures of the damage. Here is one from an EF-4 tornado in Neshoba County, MS:



Here is the link to the website as well:

Mississippi Damage Surveys
WOW...I have been out of the loop the past couple of days because I did not realize the tornado reports at the SPC for 4/27/2011 had gone up to 263:

Quoting BahaHurican:
I don't know.... there's something about this kind of disaster where numbers just "pile up" that makes me want to put a name and face to the people who died... I dunno, makes it seem less impersonal... like each person is an important loved one for somebody, and not just a statistic.

But it doesn't make it easier... looking at the family of 5, the little 4- and 1- year-olds, is heartbreaking....
Quoting IKE:

I just happened to see his post on my facebook page. I didn't see post 597 before.


Actually all posts I write in re: to severe weather watches and meso discussions are credited to SPC. (i.e. A Tornado Watch will likely be issued soon by the Storm Prediction Center, so stay tuned.
) and you can click on the image and go directly to the SPC website.

Some do not have access to the SPC website or know where to find the info, so call it giving people a heads up.

Wow, it's any wonder I don't post here much anymore!! :-(
Hey, there! When r u going to post your probabilities for the 2011 season?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
there's even more from where that come from. its to get worse, you know that right?


is that because of the number of missing may turn into casualties or that the next go around of storms headed through this area will create an environment that could be unmatched to nothing we have ever or hope to ever see again..
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, there! When r u going to post your probabilities for the 2011 season?


Direct message me and I'll give ya the info.
Quoting crownwx:


Actually all posts I write in re: to severe weather watches and meso discussions are credited to SPC. (i.e. A Tornado Watch will likely be issued soon by the Storm Prediction Center, so stay tuned.
) and you can click on the image and go directly to the SPC website.

Some do not have access to the SPC website or know where to find the info, so call it giving people a heads up.

Wow, it's any wonder I don't post here much anymore!! :-(
well we get a vistor don't pay any mind some just get a little uptight sometimes
Quoting AllyBama:


is that because of the number of missing may turn into casualties or that the next go around of storms headed through this area will create an environment that could be unmatched to nothing we have ever or hope to ever see again..
ally i mean in terms of these types of systems or high impacting events with large scale wide spread damage what we have seen here we will see more of much more
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ally i mean in terms of these types of systems or high impacting events with large scale wide spread damage what we have seen here we will see more of much more


this year in general? or are we in a peak time period for storms of this nature or I won't go there on the "warming" crap!..lol
And IKE, my comments WERE NOT directed to you, just others that commented on the information. Sorry if it seemed that way.
662. beell
Quoting crownwx:


Actually all posts I write in re: to severe weather watches and meso discussions are credited to SPC. (i.e. A Tornado Watch will likely be issued soon by the Storm Prediction Center, so stay tuned.
) and you can click on the image and go directly to the SPC website.

Some do not have access to the SPC website or know where to find the info, so call it giving people a heads up.

Wow, it's any wonder I don't post here much anymore!! :-(


Thanks for the clarification. Makes all the difference.

From my post: A link to the MCD would have made it crystal clear

A safe and productive season to you.
663. IKE

Quoting crownwx:
And IKE, my comments WERE NOT directed to you, just others that commented on the information. Sorry if it seemed that way.
Okay.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
242 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
SOUTHWESTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
NORTHWESTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
WESTERN TIPTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 242 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR JERICHO...OR 9 MILES
NORTH OF MARION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO JERICHO...
SUNSET...BRIGHTON...DIXONVILLE...FULTON...MILLINGT ON...MUNFORD...
FORT PILLOW STATE PARK AND MEEMAN SHELBY FOREST STATE PARK.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR BRANDYWINE LAKE...CORONEE LAKE
AND WAPANOCCA LAKE.

We had so much more heat in the tropics last season. The 19 storms we had and a second year La Nina have done their job:

April 30, 2010



April 30, 2011



Of course, we are warmer this year closer to home than last year. Could mean closer development this season, might not...Just something to ponder. I think it's safe to say we could see about 5 less storms this season and not near the ACE we saw last season.
HuuuuuuGE temperature contrast in TX right now, bring the rain please God.
Quoting beell:


Thanks for the clarification. Makes all the difference.

From my post: A link to the MCD would have made it crystal clear

A safe and productive season to you.


Ummm, actually there is a link directly to the MCD right in the body of the blog post.
Madison County tornadoes: We are neighbors, all of us
Published: Sunday, May 01, 2011, 7:39 AM


HARVEST, Alabama -- As the scale of the devastation from Wednesday's tornadoes became apparent in Madison County, more than 3,000 people responded to an official appeal for volunteers.

They turned out in the Harvest area Saturday morning to see how they could help neighbors and strangers alike, some who had lost everything but their lives.

People reached out in myriad ways, picking up debris that had been someone's home, cutting up felled trees, cooking food on backyard grills to feed who ever happened to show up hungry. Some volunteers even provided tetanus shots.

And they will do it again today, and the day after.

Sheriff Blake Dorning recognized the spirit Saturday when commending residents for their steadfast cooperation and outreach. "We are defining ourselves as a community," he said at the daily news briefing.

Some businesses gave away ice and some restaurants cooked food and gave it away.

Other businesses found ways to open so that we could buy food, flashlights and other necessities.

In the most trying circumstances, our emergency response workers - police officers, sheriff's deputies, firefighters, ambulance crews, the National Guard - worked professionally and kept the peace, particularly at gas lines where patience sometimes melted like butter in sunshine.

Indeed, political leaders and emergency management officials orchestrated coordinated and effective rescue and recovery efforts that began with the first reports of injury and damage and will continue in the days ahead. That may be in part to the lessons learned from the Airport Road tornado in 1989 and the many emergency drills held in the years since.

Curfews remain in effect to thwart looting and to discourage gawkers who would get in the way of workers.

If your house is still without power this morning, you can continue to count yourself as one of the lucky. But you can thank all the utility crews - many drove in from other states - who are working around the clock to repair our badly damaged electrical system.

We can marvel that the death toll wasn't higher from the worst outbreak of tornadoes this state has seen in 80 years, thanks largely to the domino-like radio and TV weather warnings that led us to take cover.

We can take stock of things we so often take for granted - electricity, ample gasoline, 24-7 grocery stores, warm showers, telephone and Internet connections, streets made safer with traffic signals.

The disaster has peeled us away from our TVs and our seemingly endless busywork and forced us outside to mingle with - and help - our neighbors.

It has introduced us to conservation measures like using solar-powered lighting, bicycling rather than driving, and trickle showers with water warmed by sun-bathed garden houses. The long lines have tested our patience and served as a true barometer of our character. Mostly, we've taken those waits in stride.

Our children have gotten exposed to creative outdoor playing and perhaps discovered the joys of a good book or delighting in a starry sky made more magnificent by the blackness.

It will be back to work as usual for most folks later this week. But we should not forget that there are many among our midst whose lives will forever be scarred.

For those touched by personal tragedy, we cannot imagine the grief and hardship that lies ahead.

But Alabama and the Huntsville area are resilient. We have traveled these roads before and have emerged stronger from it.

We may have been battered, but we will not be defeated. We may have stumbled, but we will not fall, for we live in a community that believes in helping thy neighbor - and strangers, too.
Quoting Jedkins01:
I'm still shocked by the devastation, its just incredible the power there. You would think the damage was done by an air strike.


Because essentially it was an air strike. It's just all a part of the inherent struggle with Nature. Now could the next battle be with the Miss. River? I truly hope not and hope everyone is prepared in those affected areas as it crests.

Growing up in Georgia, then along the river in Memphis and Baton Rouge, my heart goes out for everyone in the SE as I watch from mild Southern California.

I remember how terrifying those severe thunderstorms were on almost a daily/nightly basis Spring thru Fall, and was always running in to closets and sleeping in the bathtub during those storms!

After following this blog almost daily since 2004, this is the first time I've posted. Thanks everybody (generally and sans all the trolls) for all the great information through the years--especially during Katrina and Rita.

I've just watched my hygrometer go from 58 to 28 in 2 hours and it's now 78 degrees and crystal clear with mild Santa Ana conditions here in coastal San Diego.
Very thankful for all the rain this winter that greatly reduced our wildfire fears here.
Pine trees starting to get a brown look to them, the needles are falling off, grass is browning in fields, grass is dead along Interstates and near the curbs where the heat from the concrete is, something your not supposed to see till August
Welcome to the fray BarometerGirl..,


A high school in Memphis, TN
Its just devastating!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
there's even more from where that come from. its to get worse, you know that right?


Yes I do, unfortunately.
emcf30 - and things are going to get worse...the csainos in Tunica are being closed because the land where they are sitting will be flooded. Vicksburg has built a 15 ft wall to hold back the water and are now in the sandbag stage. They are on track to see a flood stage of 53.3 ft. Flooding begins at 43 ft. and they are over 44 ft now.
Alabama family struck twice by deadly tornadoes; 'it came back ... and it killed more'
Published: Sunday, May 01, 2011, 2:23 PM


PISGAH, Alabama

The tornadoes followed each other as if guided by rails, 3 times over 10 terrifying hours, straight at the little cluster of homes where Joseph Wayne Haney and his relatives lived.

The first crushed Haney's wife to death under a piano. The second twisted menacingly overhead but didn't touch down. And the third, a true monster, blew the neighborhood to pieces, killing 2 more of his kin.

On a day that sowed heartbreak throughout the South, this close-knit family received more than its share of the sky's rage, Haney said.

"It came back," Haney said, blinking back tears outside a funeral home on Saturday. "It came back the same path, and it killed more."

In Pisgah, like elsewhere, it happened with blinding speed.

Haney was asleep in the living room recliner when his wife, Kathy Gray Haney, woke him. "She said, 'I think there's a tornado,'" Haney said. "And just as she said the word 'tornado,' it hit us."

Their mobile home heaved into the air and slammed into a line of trees. Their piano landed on the couple, and the rest of the house collapsed on top of it. The family Bible landed next to them.

'Honey, I love you, and I'm hurting'

As the wind screamed, Haney said, he wrapped his arms around his wife's legs and tried to pull her to him. "She said 'Honey, I love you, and I'm hurting,'" Haney said.


In an April 30, 2011 photo, Joseph Wayne Haney, left, and his relatives bow their heads during the burial of his wife, Kathy Gray Haney, in Pisgah, Ala. The neighborhood where the family lived was hit by two tornadoes within a 10-hour period, killing Kathy Gray Haney and two other relatives. (AP Photo/Chris Hawley)

This week was supposed to be a joyous one for the Haneys and their extended family. Their niece, Whitney Lawhorn, was getting married on Monday, and the whole family was invited.
678. beell
Quoting crownwx:


Ummm, actually there is a link directly to the MCD right in the body of the blog post.


My bad for not going there first. Merely read a copy. Read back...I wasn't too hard on you.
Quoting Jedkins01:
I'm still shocked by the devastation, its just incredible the power there. You would think the damage was done by an air strike.


I have been on air strikes --- they don't do that much damage. They kinda pale in comparison. This is worse (excluding nuke, which I have not seen).
Quoting AllyBama:
emcf30 - and things are going to get worse...the csainos in Tunica are being closed because the land where they are sitting will be flooded. Vicksburg has built a 15 ft wall to hold back the water and are now in the sandbag stage. They are on track to see a flood stage of 53.3 ft. Flooding begins at 43 ft. and they are over 44 ft now.


This flooding is going to be a HUGE event. Our best hope we get a few weeks of dry weather in this region, don;t think that's going to happen tho.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
423 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
CROSS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
LEE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN POINSETT COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 423 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO EARLE...
FORREST CITY...HUGHES...MADISON...MARIANNA...MARKED TREE...
PALESTINE...PARKIN...TYRONZA...WYNNE AND VILLAGE CREEK STATE PARK.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR MIDWAY LAKE AND WAPANOCCA
LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

.MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE
USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS
POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING
FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT FLASH FLOODING ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.
Quoting AllyBama:
emcf30 - and things are going to get worse...the csainos in Tunica are being closed because the land where they are sitting will be flooded. Vicksburg has built a 15 ft wall to hold back the water and are now in the sandbag stage. They are on track to see a flood stage of 53.3 ft. Flooding begins at 43 ft. and they are over 44 ft now.


I am guessing they will have to evacuate and abandon Angola Prison in Looziana. I saw Red River Lndg expected to crest at 62'. I thought it was above 61' where the inner levee is breached.
NEXRAD Radar
Memphis, Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation Range 124 NMI

Quoting Patrap:

Hey - you live in LA and I was wondering if you knew what level in BR they start to open the Morganza spillway. I've been unable to find anything.

Thanks.
High Water in Mississippi River Heading for Louisiana

Posted: Apr 29, 2011 7:00 PM by Melissa Hawkes
Updated: Apr 29, 2011 7:02 PM



Water flowing from the Mississippi River is reaching record breaking highs in Illinois and according to officials the high water is heading right for us.
Governor Jindal declared a state of emergency yesterday.
Mike Stagg, spokesperson with the Army Corps of Engineers, said Louisiana "is starting to see a little bit of a rise, but nothing significant so far."
He said the water in New Orleans has risen a foot and a half in the past week and waters in Morgan City are half a foot higher. If necessary, the first line of defense will be opening the Bonnet Carre Spillway in New Orleans, which will empty the water into Lake Pontchartrain.
Governor Jindal said "it is likely we will have to open the spillway to relieve some water on the levees."
If the Bonnet Carre Spillway doesn't provide enough relief and water is continuing to rise in the Baton Rouge area, then the last step will be opening up the Morganza Spillway in Point Coupee Parish. The Morganza Spillway is typically closed. If it is opened, hundreds of thousands of land will flood-mainly in the Atchafalaya Basin. It's something that hasn't happened since 1927.
Stagg said, "the flow that controls the Morganza Spillway is 1.5 cubic feet of water passing on the Mississippi side and based on predictions by the National Weather Service we don't expect that to happen."
The Morganza Spillway is typically closed. If it is opened, hundreds of thousands of land will flood-mainly in the Atchafalaya Basin. It's something that hasn't happened since 1927.

It was opened in 1973
689. beell
Quoting bappit:
The Morganza Spillway is typically closed. If it is opened, hundreds of thousands of land will flood-mainly in the Atchafalaya Basin. It's something that hasn't happened since 1927.

It was opened in 1973


To protect the Old River Control Structure. Not to relieve pressure on the MS River Levees.

High water was scouring the base of the structure. If they had not opened it, the Mississippi River would now be running through Morgan City, LA via the Atchafalya River and New Orleans would be a backwater town with salt water to drink.
Does this article say total missing in Tuscaloosa is still 570?

596. emcf30 4:45 PM GMT on May 01, 2011
Tuscaloosa Morning news conference Link
Buildings in Tuscaloosa damaged or destroyed est. 5713
Confirmed fatalities 39
injuries treated 1000+
Total missing increased to 570
Overall event
Death Toll From US Tornado Outbreak Climbs To 355

By Mark Dunphy - Sat Apr 30, 4:01 pm
New figures released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Weather Service (NWS) indicate that this week’s severe storms across southern US states were the deadliest in 86 years.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said that there were 211 tornadoes on April 27-28, 2011. During the multi-day period of April 26-28, The National Weather Service (NWS) estimates there were a total of 288 tornadoes. The largest previous number of tornadoes on record in one event occurred from April 3-4, 1974, with 148 tornadoes.


Yep. They almost lost it. They've made changes at the old river control structure since then.
693. beell
Quoting bappit:
Yep. They almost lost it. They've made changes at the old river control structure since then.


Kinda scary to hear folks talk about it back then. Dumping truck sized limestone boulders around the wing walls as fast as they could barge them on-site. Some brave tug boat crews and crane operators.
Found this link about how they had to rebuild the structure.

One question that arose was whether a stilling basin was needed to prevent excess erosion downstream of the control structure. After looking at the model, it was decided that a stilling basin was needed because the Atchafalaya channel banks for some distance downstream were erodible. Significant erosion in the Atchafalaya could undermine the
whole control structure.

Oh, one further thing. The control structure was located several hundred feet downstream from the old structure, which was the best location for other than hydraulic design reasons. This required flow to make almost a turn from the Mississippi River into the approach channel. When the flow reached the control structure, the water level was much higher on the left side of the structure than on the right, if the gates were not operated uniformly, which probably would cause erosion of the left approach channel banks for some distance upstream of the control structure. Some concrete and rock bank protection was provided to prevent that erosion. The sharpness of the turn at the upstream end of the approach channel was reduced based on model tests, to improve flow conditions in the approach channel.
Incredible. Weather.com says another 3-5 inches of rain in the next 36 hours in Arkansas and much of the region that has been absolutely deluged by recent rains. Wow. All the best. Time to come together and make some good things happen as a people and the ecosystems.
690- chiklit- sadly, yes.
Quoting CanesfanatUT:


I am guessing they will have to evacuate and abandon Angola Prison in Looziana. I saw Red River Lndg expected to crest at 62'. I thought it was above 61' where the inner levee is breached.


I heard that the appellate court sided with the army corp of engineers to blow up that levee. After this it will be appealed to the US Supreme Court.
698. beell
Quoting bappit:
Found this link about how they had to rebuild the structure.

One question that arose was whether a stilling basin was needed to prevent excess erosion downstream of the control structure. After looking at the model, it was decided that a stilling basin was needed because the Atchafalaya channel banks for some distance downstream were erodible. Significant erosion in the Atchafalaya could undermine the
whole control structure.

Oh, one further thing. The control structure was located several hundred feet downstream from the old structure, which was the best location for other than hydraulic design reasons. This required flow to make almost a turn from the Mississippi River into the approach channel. When the flow reached the control structure, the water level was much higher on the left side of the structure than on the right, if the gates were not operated uniformly, which probably would cause erosion of the left approach channel banks for some distance upstream of the control structure. Some concrete and rock bank protection was provided to prevent that erosion. The sharpness of the turn at the upstream end of the approach channel was reduced based on model tests, to improve flow conditions in the approach channel.


I don't know why, bappit, but I have always had a great interest in this subject. I suppose it is because this is another example of Man over Nature (so far, lol) Thanks.

Here's another link:
Old River Control Structure
The Levee that was to be dynamited is in Illinois,not Louisiana.

Cairo, Ill., argues for its life in levee breach plan; others protest

On Friday, U.S. District Judge Stephen Limbaugh Jr. found the corps' plan to breach the Birds Point levee appropriate to ensure navigation and flood control along the still-rising Mississippi.

The river's crest at the Cairo flood wall could reach 60.5 feet a foot above its 1937 record high by Tuesday and stay at that level several days before slowly retreating, according to the National Weather Service office in Paducah, Ky. Cairo's wall protects the town up to 64 feet, but there's concern that a lingering crest could put extra pressure on the wall and on earthen levees protecting other parts of the city.
The Levee that was to be dynamited is in Illinois,not Louisiana.

Yep. Going to the Supreme Court as weathergeek5 pointed out. Edit: Actually they want to dynamite a levee in Missouri.
Quoting MississippiWx:
We had so much more heat in the tropics last season. The 19 storms we had and a second year La Nina have done their job:

April 30, 2010



April 30, 2011



Of course, we are warmer this year closer to home than last year. Could mean closer development this season, might not...Just something to ponder. I think it's safe to say we could see about 5 less storms this season and not near the ACE we saw last season.

Of coarse we are seeing more heat closer to home, we had no storms in the northern gulf, only one TS in the bahamas/southern florida, and the strongest storm near the US coast was Earl, and it only made it to 75W,(Well north of the bahamas, but before North Carolina)
So on the contrary, i believe that there will be stronger storms near home, and there will be less storms than last year, but the ACE, i think, Will be about the same as last year, or a bit less.
So from what im seeing coming from Africa is that we should see our first wave from africa come off May 5, so just in time for cinco de Mayo
can someone tell me when they expect this blow-up to occur? or is that still up in the air?

side note- Our best friend and RedCross captain is in Smithville. He says the city is pretty much gone, no water, no police, nothing left but shreds. No access except for relief personal, and only between 6:30a, and 6:30p.

from Smithville, via cellphone, about three hours ago. No media access.

Quoting My Last Post:
from what im seeing that would be the second or first wave to come off of africa, because the vort map also shops some decent immature vorticity with a wave that's about to come off(by tomorrow) So either May 2 or May 5 will bring us our first wave of the season... Dunno, quite yet...
706. DDR
It feels like the rainy season here in the eastern caribbean already,with this persistent surface trough.
Still up in the air. Here's a CNN link.
699. Patrap.
The Levee that was to be dynamited is in Illinois,not Louisiana.

I made that same mistake earlier today, Pat. It's in/near New Madrid, Missouri. Being the dumb bunny (oh, dear, the animal English troops will be after me) I am, had to go to the basics and find the drainage basin. Amazingly wide, over 41 states.


and for others seeking basic knowledge...

COE The Mississippi River and Tributaries Project

If you click this and magnify, you'll see a detailed map showing the
river, levees and stuff from New Madrid to the Delta.
Smithville, Mississippi. Credit photo to Roger Knight, Northeast Florida Chapter American Red Cross. About fifteen minutes ago.

Quoting beell:


To protect the Old River Control Structure. Not to relieve pressure on the MS River Levees.

High water was scouring the base of the structure. If they had not opened it, the Mississippi River would now be running through Morgan City, LA via the Atchafalya River and New Orleans would be a backwater town with salt water to drink.


I've wondered about the possibility of a record 100-yr flood mucking up efforts to hold the Miss. River back from changing course into the Atchafalaya River Basin. In view of what happened with stories of corruption within the Corps of Engineers and miscalculation of the levees in NOLA during Katrina, it just makes one wonder if any such complacency could exist for the Old River Control Structure...?

It would be interesting to hear from someone on the engineering side of things there for some reassurance. In California, we are facing a similar problem with aging levees not being maintained and a dreaded 100-yr type flood for the Sacramento River Basin, so every winter fingers are crossed.
Indeed, BFOTR's,and @ one time most of dat was Louisiana,"best deal we ever made with France fo sho".
Quoting DDR:
It feels like the rainy season here in the eastern caribbean already,with this persistent surface trough.
Where are you in the Caribbean? Tha ITCZ is influencing the rainy season.
Oh, and for anyone who's interested in the flood situation, this WSJ story by John M. Barry brings a good historical perspective.

Nature is perfect; engineers are not. If humans make a mistake against nature, nature will find and exploit it.

Battling Nature on the River.

Mr. Barry is the author of "Rising Tide: The Great 1927 Mississippi Flood and How It Changed America" and vice president of the Southeast Louisiana Flood Protection Authority East, which oversees levee districts in metropolitan New Orleans.
Quoting Patrap:
Indeed, BFOTR's,and @ one time most of dat was Louisiana,"best deal we ever made with France fo sho".


LOL.


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
619 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN GREGG COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF GLADEWATER...
NORTHWESTERN HARRISON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
WESTERN MARION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHERN UPSHUR COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF GILMER...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 617 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR WEST
MOUNTAIN...OR NEAR GILMER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
DIANA BY 630 PM CDT...
ORE CITY BY 635 PM CDT...
CEDAR SPRINGS BY 640 PM CDT.
post 707, bappit's link- they even mention the effect the boomage could have, on the new madrid. Of course, no one knows.
Good to see all the relief possible going into Smithville aquak9,,they took such a loss there
Officials warn of potential for 'catastrophic' flooding in Memphis area

By Tom Charlier
Posted April 30, 2011 at 11:32 p.m.



In an assessment as grim as the storm clouds rolling in late Saturday, authorities warned that heavy rains coupled with a steadily rising Mississippi River could send floodwaters spilling into homes and businesses across many parts of Shelby County early this week.

The 3 to 7 inches of rain expected by Wednesday could bring "catastrophic" flooding, the National Weather Service said Saturday night. The county Office of Preparedness said residents should be on the alert for rising water and prepare to evacuate

Entire news article Link


From the looks of it both waves pass the test so looks like we should probably see the first wave tomorrow(even though it's a bit ragged from a trough trying to pick it up), Then afterwards we should see a more calm and collected wave emerge on May 5 or 6.
Quoting Patrap:
Good to see all the relief possible going into Smithville aquak9,,they took such a loss there

Smithville is really messed up. Saw several stories on that community today. They were showing some of the damage and were with the police chief. He described his experience as the tornado ripped thru the police station as he was trying to save his son. Really sad state of affairs for that area and many others
722. DDR
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Where are you in the Caribbean? Tha ITCZ is influencing the rainy season.


Trinidad,T&T
We havent had much of a dry season on my island,every month has been above average.200-300 percent above average in some areas.
The itcz hasn't touched us yet,it usually arrives here in late May or early June.
Quoting aquak9:
post 707, bappit's link- they even mention the effect the boomage could have, on the new madrid. Of course, no one knows.


That's from a local who has watched the Armageddon channel too much. Blowing up a levee isn't nuclear science. We're talking a surface (more or less) explosion, not something deep down in a fault line.
We haven't had a tropical wave yet. Our best candidate for one right now could be currently over the northern Congo/southern Sudan.



Meanwhile, TRMM is still showing much above-normal precipitation (blue colors) well south of the equator, with drier than normal conditions immediately to the north, indicating an ITCZ farther south than normal. This is possible support for the models which keep the ITCZ anomalously south of its normal position for the hurricane season, which suggests much less Cape Verde activity than last year.



OPPS


A Louisville Metro Police crusier caught in the rising flood waters in Cherokee Park
And look at the negative NAO as we head into mid-May:

Okay, so everyone knows how 2011's SSTs in the GOM are very warm for this time of year compared to the other recently active years(2005,2007,2008,2010). well none of these years have gotten anywhere close to being about the same in warmth(Since mid April), But i have actually found 2011's match, surprisingly the very unactive 2006...
2011:


2006:

though this doesn't mean because 2011's sst's match 2006 it will be unactive like 2006, it likely won't, and this only means better and earlier and stronger storms closer to home...
Quoting Levi32:
We haven't had a tropical wave yet. Our best candidate for one right now could be currently over the northern Congo/southern Sudan.



That's the Wave i was mentioning that would likely emerge on May 5 or 6, and be our first wave of the season(on my first post about the waves).
Quoting PcolaDan:


That's from a local who has watched the Armageddon channel too much. Blowing up a levee isn't nuclear science. We're talking a surface (more or less) explosion, not something deep down in a fault line.


p'cola- I know, I know. And I agree, the New Madrid is VERY deep. But then I think of all the weight of that water, and the re-distribution of all that weight, in a rather quick manner.

Lately, it seems like life has been nothing BUT the Armageddon channel.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Okay, so everyone knows how 2011's SSTs in the GOM are very warm for this time of year compared to the other recently active years(2005,2007,2008,2010). well none of these years have gotten anywhere close to being about the same in warmth(Since mid April), But i have actually found 2011's match, surprisingly the very unactive 2006...
2011:


2006:

though this doesn't mean because 2011's sst's match 2006 it will be unactive like 2006, it likely won't, and this only means better and earlier and stronger storms closer to home...


In my opinion things could have been much different in 2006 if a storm actually took advantage of the GoM
We dont look to Africa and waves emerging there for development to much later downstream in time,,usually development occurs in the Western Caribbean or the GOM early on.



Quoting Patrap:
We dont look to Africa and waves emerging there for development to much later downstream in time,,usually development occurs in the Western Caribbean or the GOM early on.

What this man says is correct, though tropical waves should still be monitored for their potential for, as Levi likes to say, mischief, down the road.

Many June tropical cyclones are initiated by westward-moving tropical waves combining with an old cold front.
Quoting aquak9:


p'cola- I know, I know. And I agree, the New Madrid is VERY deep. But then I think of all the weight of that water, and the re-distribution of all that weight, in a rather quick manner.

Lately, it seems like life has been nothing BUT the Armageddon channel.


It does seem that way sometimes. Welcome to the information age!
Quoting DDR:


Trinidad,T&T
We havent had much of a dry season on my island,every month has been above average.200-300 percent above average in some areas.
The itcz hasn't touched us yet,it usually arrives here in late May or early June.

Hi, DDR.
Just a short shower today here a few mins ago. But big cumulus to the east coming... Hoping we get some of that, as it has been missing us mostly, the last week or so.
Been a really strange dryseason for true.
Quoting Patrap:
We dont look to Africa and waves emerging there for development to much later downstream in time,,usually development occurs in the Western Caribbean or the GOM early on.




We do watch for them early, however, as indications of how active the CV season may be later.

Quoting CothranRoss:


In my opinion things could have been much different in 2006 if a storm actually took advantage of the GoM
Indeed.

Gulf of Mexico Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) for when Tropical Storm Chris and Hurricane Ernesto were forecast to move into the Gulf:

August 7 - Chris:



August 26 - Ernesto:



Quoting Patrap:
We dont look to Africa and waves emerging there for development to much later downstream in time,,usually development occurs in the Western Caribbean or the GOM early on.


Levi and I are talking about the first characteristical tropical wave of the season: Characteristics
Propagating at 10-15 KT
Vertically stacked
Warm cored
Low level vorticity
TO SURVIVE TROPICAL WAVES~
must have ____ To The east:
Low Level Convergence/Upper Divergence
Deep Layered Moisture
Convective Type Precipitation

must have ____ To the West:
Upper Convergence/Low Level Divergence
Dry Subsident Pattern
Indeed,,the cimss wavetrak page is always interesting
Quoting KoritheMan:

Indeed.

Gulf of Mexico Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) for when Tropical Storm Chris and Hurricane Ernesto were forecast to move into the Gulf:

August 7 - Chris:



August 26 - Ernesto:



Ernesto didn't even make it to the Gulf, and I do agree Chris could've cranked up if the Tutt wouldn't have grabbed him.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Oh, and for anyone who's interested in the flood situation, this WSJ story by John M. Barry brings a good historical perspective.

Nature is perfect; engineers are not. If humans make a mistake against nature, nature will find and exploit it.

Battling Nature on the River.

Mr. Barry is the author of "Rising Tide: The Great 1927 Mississippi Flood and How It Changed America" and vice president of the Southeast Louisiana Flood Protection Authority East, which oversees levee districts in metropolitan New Orleans.


Great article and thanks for the new quote!
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Levi and I are talking about the first characteristical tropical wave of the season: Characteristics
Propagating at 10-15 KT
Vertically stacked
Warm cored
Low level vorticity
TO SURVIVE TROPICAL WAVES~
must have ____ To The east:
Low Level Convergence/Upper Divergence
Deep Layered Moisture
Convective Type Precipitation

must have ____ To the West:
Upper Convergence/Low Level Divergence
Dry Subsident Pattern
Don't forget also that a tropical wave is accompanied by a wind shift along a south to north orientation in the lower to middle troposphere.

Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Ernesto didn't even make it to the Gulf
But he was forecast to.
Levi, quick question, do you think because the Bermuda-Azores High has caused the ITCZ farther southward because of how it has kicked in so strong.
Quoting KoritheMan:

But he was forecast to.
Oh, well when it comes to 2006 storm tracks i guess i should keep my mouth shut(anyway ive only tracked a bit of 05, half of 07, all 08, all 09, all of 10) So yeah havent really had many season under my belt, but I do know a thing or two about the tropics.
I always been wondering what is that hurracane in Levi pic and youtube channel? Need to find a loop for it but i need the name^^
Quoting Gearsts:
I always been wondering what is that hurracane in Levi pic and youtube channel? Need to find a loop for it but i need the name^^


Hurricane Mitch, 1998.
Quoting Gearsts:
I always been wondering what is that hurracane in Levi pic and youtube channel? Need to find a loop for it but i need the name^^
I believe it's Mitch 1998.
Ah! darn, Levi you beat me to it again... Lol
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Levi, quick question, do you think because the Bermuda-Azores High has caused the ITCZ farther southward because of how it has kicked in so strong.


MSLP actually hasn't been too high in the eastern Atlantic during the last month, and has actually been slightly lower than normal. The reason is more likely to be the warmer than normal Gulf of Guinea and south tropical Atlantic holding the ITCZ farther south.

Such a sexy looking hurracaneAnd Wilma
Good evening all

A potentially different season for 2011 shaping up as compared to 2010. Last year saw La Nina which typically produces troughs off the Eastern seaboard and above average recurvature. This year looks to be neutral with more development closer to home and tracking further South and West.

Surface pressures in the NW Caribbean have been running fairly low around 1012 to 1010 mb. Dry conditions have prevailed since late November and local drought conditions pretty severe.

Send rain please.

Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening all

A potentially different season for 2011 shaping up as compared to 2010. Last year saw La Nina which typically produces troughs off the Eastern seaboard and above average recurvature. This year looks to be neutral with more development closer to home and tracking further South and West.

Surface pressures in the NW Caribbean have been running fairly low around 1012 to 1010 mb. Dry conditions have prevailed since late November and local drought conditions pretty severe.

Send rain please.



Nice to see another familiar face.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Nice to see another familiar face.


One by one we surface again LOL

Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening all

A potentially different season for 2011 shaping up as compared to 2010. Last year saw La Nina which typically produces troughs off the Eastern seaboard and above average recurvature. This year looks to be neutral with more development closer to home and tracking further South and West.

Surface pressures in the NW Caribbean have been running fairly low around 1012 to 1010 mb. Dry conditions have prevailed since late November and local drought conditions pretty severe.

Send rain please.



What? I thought it was the opposite. I'd put up the 500mb chart too but the site is not working at the moment.


Source

This week's outbreak is definitely one for the record books:

--NOAA's preliminary estimate is that there were 312 tornadoes during the entire outbreak from 8:00 a.m. EDT April 26 to 8:00 a.m. April 28, 2011. This more than doubles the previous record for number of tornadoes in any one event, which was 148 during the Super Outbreak of 1974.

--During the 24-hour period from 8:00 a.m. EDT April 27 to 8:00 a.m. EDT April 28, the National Weather Service estimates there were a total of 266 tornadoes. (There were a confirmed 148 tornadoes formed in a 24-hour period during the Super Outbreak of 1974.)

--Expert analysis by NOAA Research and the National Weather Service of the fatality information indicates that at least 344 people were killed during the entire outbreak from 8:00 a.m. EDT April 26 to 8:00 a.m. April 28. There were 334 fatalities during the 24-hour-period from 8:00 a.m. April 27 to 8:00 a.m. April 28 (Note that this number is 11 lower than it was yesterday).

------------------

NWS%u2019s preliminary estimate is that there have been more than 600 tornadoes thus far during the month of April 2011.

--The previous record number of tornadoes during the month of April was 267 tornadoes set in April 1974.

--The previous record number of tornadoes during any month was 542 tornadoes set in May 2003.

--The average number of tornadoes for the month of April during the past decade is 161.

--The overall monthly average number of tornadoes for the past decade is 106.
Quoting Levi32:


What? I thought it was the opposite. I'd put up the 500mb chart too but the site is not working at the moment.


Source



Neutral years have produced closer calls for the NW Caribbean
Quoting BarometerGirl:


Great article and thanks for the new quote!


You're welcome. And I understand your concern for flooding in the Sacramento Valley.
:)
note from Wikipedia


am starting too wounder if may have yet other EF5


this one is in Lake Martin MS

9 deaths - Preliminary rating, subject to change. Several homes and businesses destroyed all along the path. Vehicles carried over 100 yards

Quoting kmanislander:


Neutral years have produced closer calls for the NW Caribbean


Ok. That may be true for the NW Caribbean, but La Ninas don't increase the frequency of recurvatures overall, and instead reduce them on average.
all so they rated it EF4 for right now
how many finalized, confirmed EF4's and EF5's have they decided upon so far? I am curious about FINALIZED reviews, not those that are still in the prelim stages.
764. aquak9 6:16 PM PDT on May 01, 2011 Hide this comment.
how many finalized, confirmed EF4's and EF5's have they decided upon so far? I am curious about FINALIZED reviews, not those that are still in the prelim stages


right now we have 13 confrom EF4 with some may need too be upgraded and 2 confrom EF5
Quoting Levi32:


Ok. That may be true for the NW Caribbean, but La Ninas don't increase the frequency of recurvatures overall, and instead reduce them on average.


It's possible he meant recurvature away from the Caribbean.
Wow, thank you Taz.

I think you are right- I think some of the 13 EF4'a might get upgraded.

Go in peace, ya'll.
Quoting aquak9:
Wow, thank you Taz.

I think you are right- I think some of the 13 EF4'a might get upgraded.

Go in peace, ya'll.



welcome
Quoting aquak9:
how many finalized, confirmed EF4's and EF5's have they decided upon so far? I am curious about FINALIZED reviews, not those that are still in the prelim stages.

Note that those numbers from NOAA/NWS aren't from the preliminary reports; they are from tornadoes that have been disambiguated, deduplicated, and filtered for error, so they are likely within a few percentage points of what the final numbers will be.

Many of the NWS offices are overwhelmed with work, as you might imagine, so some storms are taking much longer to verify and classify. There are also places that saw two or even three tornadoes this week, and the damage has to be carefully. Because of these and other complications, the NWS says they may need up to a week or more to complete their surveys.

IMO, at least one and possibly two more EF5s will be verified.
Quoting kmanislander:


One by one we surface again LOL



This is true.
So far 147 tornadoes have been confirmed (that's one fewer than occurred during the 1974 Super Outbreak), and there are still 120 or so left to survey. The confirmed numbers break down like this:

EF0: 30
EF1: 57
EF2: 32
EF3: 19
EF4: 13
EF5: 2

There are actually a few dozen or so EF3/EF4 candidates to survey; we should get many more numbers by the end of the day tomorrow.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0686
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011


AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL TO NERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 020031Z - 020130Z

ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR ONLY MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. A WW ISSUANCE DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY.

00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1007 MB MESOLOW NEAR GGG WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS SRN AR TOWARDS MEM. AS
ALLUDED TO IN MCD 684/685...ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE BLOSSOMED N OF THIS
BOUNDARY FROM W-CNTRL THROUGH N-CNTRL AR WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HAVE COOLED INTO THE MIDDLE 40S AND 50S. 00Z LZK RAOB SAMPLES THE
ELEVATED INFLOW ENVIRONMENT WELL WITH MUCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND
STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 60 KT. SEVERAL REPORTS OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL HAVE OCCURRED AND THIS OUGHT TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE ACTIVITY WHERE BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN
LARGEST. WITH ZERO SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...ANY TORNADO THREAT IN
N-CNTRL AR WILL REMAIN NIL.

..GRAMS.. 05/02/2011


ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...

LAT...LON 34829196 33979378 34069415 34499433 35369334 36499152
36699095 36629064 36389039 35759062 35459075 34829196
Quoting Neapolitan:
So far 147 tornadoes have been confirmed (that's one fewer than occurred during the 1974 Super Outbreak), and there are still 120 or so left to survey. The confirmed numbers break down like this:

EF0: 30
EF1: 57
EF2: 32
EF3: 19
EF4: 13
EF5: 2

There are actually a few dozen or so EF3/EF4 candidates to survey; we should get many more numbers by the end of the day tomorrow.



why not today LOL
Quoting Tazmanian:



why not today LOL

Well, the poor NWS employees have been working 24 hour days all week, plus I've read there were a large number of funerals/memorial services today...
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening all

A potentially different season for 2011 shaping up as compared to 2010. Last year saw La Nina which typically produces troughs off the Eastern seaboard and above average recurvature. This year looks to be neutral with more development closer to home and tracking further South and West.

Surface pressures in the NW Caribbean have been running fairly low around 1012 to 1010 mb. Dry conditions have prevailed since late November and local drought conditions pretty severe.

Send rain please.



Hi There,
I'll second the motion on rain, we need a good 2 days of all Island rain, its been dry here as the Sahara. One thing I noticed, I think we had an usually hot April!
Quoting stormpetrol:


Hi There,
I'll second the motion on rain, we need a good 2 days of all Island rain, its been dry here as the Sahara. One thing I noticed, I think we had an usually hot April!


Average day time highs have been running around 88F. Lately even higher. Only .66 of an inch of rain in April in South Sound.
Quoting kmanislander:


Neutral years have produced closer calls for the NW Caribbean



I don't like neutral years. Of the three, it's the ENSO phase I am most concerned about. They tend to produce more lower riding storms that effect the Caribbean and where I am at, Florida, produce the most landfalls on average.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



I don't like neutral years. Of the three, it's the ENSO phase I am most concerned about. They tend to produce more lower riding storms that effect the Caribbean and where I am at, Florida, produce the most landfalls on average.


Please help me here. Was 2005 a neutral year?
Quoting Neapolitan:

Well, the poor NWS employees have been working 24 hour days all week, plus I've read there were a large number of funerals/memorial services today...



i dont think i re call telliing them they can have a day off LOL

Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



I don't like neutral years. Of the three, it's the ENSO phase I am most concerned about. They tend to produce more lower riding storms that effect the Caribbean and where I am at, Florida, produce the most landfalls on average.


One thing we do know is that this year will likely be different than 2010. The Caribbean has been very dry but pressures have been relatively low.
781. beell
Quoting Neapolitan:
This week's outbreak is definitely one for the record books:

--NOAA's preliminary estimate is that there were 312 tornadoes during the entire outbreak from 8:00 a.m. EDT April 26 to 8:00 a.m. April 28, 2011. This more than doubles the previous record for number of tornadoes in any one event, which was 148 during the Super Outbreak of 1974.

--During the 24-hour period from 8:00 a.m. EDT April 27 to 8:00 a.m. EDT April 28, the National Weather Service estimates there were a total of 266 tornadoes. (There were a confirmed 148 tornadoes formed in a 24-hour period during the Super Outbreak of 1974.)

--Expert analysis by NOAA Research and the National Weather Service of the fatality information indicates that at least 344 people were killed during the entire outbreak from 8:00 a.m. EDT April 26 to 8:00 a.m. April 28. There were 334 fatalities during the 24-hour-period from 8:00 a.m. April 27 to 8:00 a.m. April 28 (Note that this number is 11 lower than it was yesterday).

------------------

NWS%u2019s preliminary estimate is that there have been more than 600 tornadoes thus far during the month of April 2011.

--The previous record number of tornadoes during the month of April was 267 tornadoes set in April 1974.

--The previous record number of tornadoes during any month was 542 tornadoes set in May 2003.

--The average number of tornadoes for the month of April during the past decade is 161.

--The overall monthly average number of tornadoes for the past decade is 106.



From your post (from this link I believe)
NOAA April 2011 Tornado Information

NOAA's preliminary estimate is that there were 312 tornadoes during the entire outbreak from 8:00 a.m. EDT April 26 to 8:00 a.m. April 28, 2011.

This number is a pretty close match to the 3-day total of preliminary storm reports which are not confirmed tornadoes. For the 26th through the 28th:
105 on the 26th
263 on the 27th
14 on the 28th

Total 303

Preliminary Storm Reports
04/26/11
04/27/11
04/28/11

Also:

During the 24-hour period from 8:00 a.m. EDT April 27 to 8:00 a.m. EDT April 28, The National Weather Service (NWS) estimates there were a total of 266 tornadoes.

This compares almost one-to-one to the current talley of preliminary tornado reports at 263 for the 27th.

And:

NWS%u2019s preliminary estimate is that there have been 881 tornadoes so far this year.

The total number of preliminary storm reports stands at 871

These MAY be very preliminary numbers (storm reports) and not actual confirmed tornados. Look it over, see what you think.

Numbers from this post can be accessed from the link provided above. Click the US map Labeled "Monthly Tornado Weather Summary" near the bottom right of the page.
Complete Update





Quoting CaribbeanStorm:


Please help me here. Was 2005 a neutral year?
Yeah.
Mayor: death toll may rise; curfew remains
By Brian Reynolds Staff Writer
Published: Sunday, May 1, 2011 at 3:30 a.m.
Last Modified: Sunday, May 1, 2011 at 12:32 a.m.

TUSCALOOSA | The Tuscaloosa Police Department will begin today releasing the names of those killed in the April 27 tornado, while the sheriff's department is expected to release names of the dead in the county, Mayor Walt Maddox said Saturday night.

story Link
What's up with this: BREAKING NEWS: PRESIDENT OBAMA TO ADDRESS THE NATION AT 10:30PM EDT.

Any guesses? My money is on something to do with Gadhafi.
Grrr how many times do I have to repeat myself?.No one will care in the end if 2010 is more active than 2011 once the damage is done.No one around here remembers the 2010 season or for that matter people in hurricane territory(Maybe some).But still.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Grrr how many times do I have to repeat myself?.No one will care in the end if 2010 is more active than 2011 once the damage is done.No one around here remembers the 2010 season or for that matter people in hurricane territory(Maybe some).But still.


Chill. It's the weather.
Quoting Neapolitan:
What's up with this: BREAKING NEWS: PRESIDENT OBAMA TO ADDRESS THE NATION AT 10:30PM EDT.

Any guesses? My money is on something to do with Gadhafi.

for what it is worth I just found this
Apparently he's being briefed by CIA and about to speak to the nation at 10:30 tonight.
We shall see
Quoting Neapolitan:
What's up with this: BREAKING NEWS: PRESIDENT OBAMA TO ADDRESS THE NATION AT 10:30PM EDT.

Any guesses? My money is on something to do with Gadhafi.


they've identified whatever that is sitting on Donald trump's head
Reports coming in, It is National Security related
Quoting presslord:


they've identified whatever that is sitting on Donald trump's head

LOL
Please don't be sending our troops in to Libya...they are stretched thin enough..
Guess I'm going to have to watch the tube. LOL

NATO Accused Of Overstepping Libya Mandate After Airstrike Reportedly Kills Gaddafi's Son


BRUSSELS (AP) -- After two airstrikes in a week on targets close to Muammar Gaddafi, NATO was on the defensive Sunday over accusations that it was overstepping its mandate by trying to kill the Libyan leader.

Russia said Sunday that the bombing of the home of Gaddafi's youngest son raised "serious doubts" about NATO's assertions that it is not targeting the Libyan strongman or his relatives.

"Disproportionate use of force ... is leading to detrimental consequences and the death of innocent civilians," the Russian Foreign Ministry warned.

International law does not explicitly forbid attacks on military commanders during wartime, but the U.N. Security Council mandate authorizing NATO action charged alliance forces with establishing a no-fly zone and protecting civilians from attack.


04/29/2011
TORNADO DEBRIS

U.S. Air Force Tech. Sgt. Patrick Williams uses a chainsaw to clear fallen trees blocking roadways April 26, 2011, in Vilonia, Ark., one day after a tornado caused severe damage. Williams is an aerial porter technician assigned to the 189th Airlift Wing's Rapid Augmentation Team Charlie. U.S. Air Force photo by Master Sgt. Dianna Seerey
Wow, wounder what the hell is going on. All Intelligent officials have been ordered to the Operations Centers by 10:30. Something big is going on
Quoting eddy12:
obama on at 10:30 who cares just another president blowing smoke up my a**


Don't be disrespectful...
it won't be Libya...my guess: bin Laden or Mullah Omar captured or killed
how is that disrespectful?


U.S. Navy sailors direct an E-2C Hawkeye aboard the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson, which is under way in the Arabian Sea, April 26, 2011. The Carl Vinson and Carrier Air Wing 17 are conducting maritime security operations and close-air support missions in the U.S. 5th Fleet area of responsibility. U.S. Navy photo by Petty Officer 3rd Class Christopher K. Hwang - Download Hi-Res
It is not about Libya, something much bigger CNN
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening all

A potentially different season for 2011 shaping up as compared to 2010. Last year saw La Nina which typically produces troughs off the Eastern seaboard and above average recurvature. This year looks to be neutral with more development closer to home and tracking further South and West.

Surface pressures in the NW Caribbean have been running fairly low around 1012 to 1010 mb. Dry conditions have prevailed since late November and local drought conditions pretty severe.

Send rain please.

hello friend i see ya have drop on in been awhile
Something big is afoot, Me thinks a Hellfire missile found Kah-Daffy
The United Nations says it's evacuating its international staff from Tripoli because of unrest in the Libyan capital.
In some of its strongest language, the Russian Foreign Ministry on Sunday accused NATO of a "disproportionate use of force" and cast doubt on NATO's assertion that it is not targeting Qaddafi or members of his family. Russia called for an immediate cease-fire.

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/05/01/says-evacu ating-staff-tripoli/#ixzz1L9u8OzfM
I got $100 bucks it's bin Laden
Probably Bin Laden
Maybe they figured out what that was on Trumps head?
White House has told CNN it has nothing to do with Libya, It is something very significant and will take sometime to digest. Us manning all intell Operations Centers. They were manned by 10:30 to be prepared for the announcement. Is 2012 coming 1 year earlier. I knew I should not have watched that Damn movie today
bin laden is dead just reported
Quoting Patrap:
Something big is afoot, Me thinks a Hellfire missile found Kah-Daffy


Geraldo speculating Bin Laden - just guessing.
Quoting presslord:
I got $100 bucks it's bin Laden

I'm with you 100% based on things I've heard. He's dead or caught...
Quoting Patrap:
Maybe they figured out what that was on Trumps head?

It's just a dust mop. Go figure.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Probably Bin Laden

I agree
confirmed bin laden dead
CNN says we have bin Laden's body
Quoting eddy12:
confirmed bin laden dead

link? for real?
Quoting eddy12:
how is that disrespectful?
PLEASE STAND BY THIS IS NOT A TEST BIN LADEN IS DEAD
Holy Smokes..

So Long..

So waited..for.

So much sacrificed for.


Vengeance is mine say'th the Lord

















it is real
825. beell
Killed a week ago via a bomb with all our names on it.

A symbol/a figurehead. Don't think for a second that this changes much. Enjoy the moment.
Pay backs are hell
Evening all -- good to see so many familiar faces.
yea orca called my sister her husband is some big muckety muck and she told me btw your canucks are scaring me have cash on them for the cup
Quoting eddy12:
yea orca called my sister her husband is some big muckety muck and she told me btw your canucks are scaring me have cash on them for the cup


Join the crowd :(
Quoting beell:
Killed a week ago via a bomb with all our names on it.

A symbol/a figurehead. Don't think for a second that this changes much. Enjoy the moment.
the body is even in u.s. hands
Bin Laden is dead!

BTW, GO LIGHTNING!
bolts look good jedkins
Quoting beell:
Killed a week ago via a bomb with all our names on it.

A symbol/a figurehead. Don't think for a second that this changes much. Enjoy the moment.


Yep and its possible his followers will ready to react upon as well. We need to stand at high alert!
Quoting Jedkins01:
Bin Laden is dead!

BTW, GO LIGHTNING!


Vincent is showing up big time!!! GO BOLTS!!!!
Oh my.

It would be great if the war in Pakistan / Afganistan could now wind down...
"But alas te news is news that men have heard before..." A.E. Houseman
Usama Bin Laden is dead!!!!
red wings down 0-2 life could not be better
Yep and its possible his followers will ready to react upon as well. We need to stand at high alert!

my thinking exactly!
Quoting TampaSpin:


Vincent is showing up big time!!! GO BOLTS!!!!


heck yeah! Maybe Obama will address that the Capitals have forfeited in addition to Bin Laden dying

:)
Quoting eddy12:
red wings down 0-2 life could not be better


Lighting up 2-0 on the Caps, life could not be better.
agreed hate o v
Is it true that US is on a high alert level?
Quoting Orcasystems:
OMG, your security sucks... your President is going to brief it to the world.. and everyone and their mother leaked it to the news.


From AP news:
The person spoke on the condition of anonymity in order to speak ahead of the president.

In other words, the government released the news intentionally.
Quoting Gearsts:
Is it true that US is on a high alert level?


Don't get "alert" and "defcon" confused.
Coincidentally, it was eight years ago today that Pres. Bush gave his famous "Mission Accomplished" speech on the deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln, so it turns out he was only 2,922 days premature.
Osama was killed in a US Attack on a Mansion outside Islamabad,Pakistan
they killed him in a mansion attack in nw islamabad pakistan
They spilled out da Bar's into Bourbon Street,...!!

USA,USA...
neap I would not say mission accomplished still long way to go
This is one of those moments where you later say, "I was doing such and such when we found out bin Ladin was dead..."
Quoting Patrap:
Osama was killed in a US Attack on a Mansion outside Islamabad,Pakistan

Saw that--and here Pakistan has been telling us he's not there, no way, now how. Methinks they got some splainin' to do...
Expect Trump to ask for a "Death Certificate"
857. beell
Quoting TampaSpin:


Yep and its possible his followers will ready to react upon as well. We need to stand at high alert!


Hey, who knows? Maybe we won't hear as much whining and crying about the "injustice" of airport security!
Quoting eddy12:
neap I would not say mission accomplished still long way to go

Perhaps--but a lot closer now then we were eight years ago, wouldn't you say?
859. beell
Quoting Patrap:
Expect Trump to ask for a "Death Certificate"


LMAO, Pat.
Quoting Patrap:
Expect Trump to ask for a "Death Certificate"



LOLOLOLOLLOL

On a serious note, I wouldn't be surprised if he did :)
agree it is a blow to them how much of a blow that i do not know
"Officials said that the death of the al-Qaeda leader was more of a 'symbolic victory', as he was no longer directly connected to the group's field operations."

Well, that's fine. I'm all for symbolism...and besides, dead is dead.
If I wasn't already in my underwear for bed - I'd go down to the White House just for the heck of it. haha
As a non-American, I think I'll feel a little better about the security, now.
some neat pics outside white house on cnn
Quoting CanesfanatUT:
If I wasn't already in my underwear for bed - I'd go down to the White House just for the heck of it. haha


ROFL...my SIL is driving back into DC at this very minute. I will tell him to watch for you!
867. beell
So... is the President a bit late or what?
LOL.... I just got quoted by Dick Gregory...
Quoting CaribbeanStorm:


Please help me here. Was 2005 a neutral year?


Sorry the delay, BIN LADEN IS D E A D

In other news, yes, 2005 was neutral.

DeAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAddd.. .



USA WHOOO RAHHHHHH.
Quoting beell:
So... is the President a bit late or what?


I know...I wish he'd get on with it.
did the i s i kill him?
Quoting BahaHurican:
This is one of those moments where you later say, "I was doing such and such when we found out bin Ladin was dead..."
I can remember what I did on the same night Obama was made president.
T minus 2 mins
Quoting BahaHurican:
This is one of those moments where you later say, "I was doing such and such when we found out bin Ladin was dead..."

And I was drinking beer. Oh well.
Almost 45 min since the announcement was supposed to start...
Quoting eddy12:
agree it is a blow to them how much of a blow that i do not know


Interesting question. What would be nice is if it triggers reactions from the enemy that expose them to further attacks. The further attacks could come from any direction--from the U.S., from within (power struggle), from Pakistan (I'm not hopeful there though). Wherever.

It seems our own increased exposure was the main result gained by Al Qaeda from destroying the World Trade Center which, I think, did not really pay off for them until we invaded Iraq. Then we fought the Iraqi army, Shiite militias, Sunni militias and Al Qaeda plus diverted resources from Afghanistan which enhanced the attacks there from the Taliban and further attacks by Al Qaeda.
pakistan killed him they had to have given him up even if we took the shot
yes it's a "i remember what i was doing at that time" event. It's great news, but we need to be cautious about retalitory attacks from al qaida or other groups due to this. ( and new people taking his spot as "leader" ) terrorists are ants, they are hard to fight and there are many but we can get more killed!
GO USA!!!
Special forces took possesion of Bin Laden's body
Quoting BahaHurican:
Almost 45 min since the announcement was supposed to start...

Kinda slow IMHO. but..............more beer drinking time.
From a TV station in Sacramento. A Fox affiliate. Go figure... ;-)

OBL


Remember this


To bad the special forces team won't get the reward money. That would be cool if they did
888. beell
Quoting Neapolitan:
From a TV station in Sacramento. A Fox affiliate. Go figure... ;-)

OBL


Good gobbledee goo! Does that really say,
"SPORTS: OBAMA BIN LADEN DEAD", ?
special forces has him? If by special forces you mean the c i a then yea cia operates the s.a.d and with in that the s.o.g these are the covert operators of the president
double post
Quoting beell:


Good gobbledee goo! Does that really say,
"SPORTS: OBAMA BIN LADEN DEAD", ?


Well Target Shooting is considered a sport
Hope this softens somehow the war on terror.... The only bad thing about all this, it is that AlQaeda is still alive and well, and should already be commanded by his sucessor, already trainned by him...
Quoting beell:


Good gobbledee goo! Does that really say,
"SPORTS: OBAMA BIN LADEN DEAD", ?

I bet it says reports, not sports, but you're right with the rest. Someone wasn't too careful with the spell check (the same thing actually nearly happened to me earlier). Joking aside though, not a bad gift from the world to me for my 20th birthday I must say!
Fox is saying that OBL was killed a week ago, and the White House was awaiting DNA verification.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Fox is saying that OBL was killed a week ago, and the White House was awaiting DNA verification.


Didn't the President state he authorized the operation this morning and that he was killed today. I think FOX reported wrong...
I thought the president said last week...
Boy, I bet OBL is wishing he would have turned off his new iPhone's location tracking feature...
President Obama wrapped up his address to the American people informing us that Osama Bin Laden has been killed in a US operation by order from President Obama last week. The operation was carried out in Pakistan, after the president decided that we had enough intelligence with enough certainty, and issued the order.

Here is a video of the full address by President Obama:
899. beell
Quoting 1900hurricane:

I bet it says reports, not sports, but you're right with the rest. Someone wasn't too careful with the spell check (the same thing actually nearly happened to me earlier). Joking aside though, not a bad gift from the world to me for my 20th birthday I must say!


Maybe so, 1900. A nice little extra celebration for today and all the rest of your birthdays. So much for calling you "Hey 19". Happy Birthday!
Quoting BahaHurican:
I thought the president said last week...


Just rewatched it. The President states " today, at my direction, the United State launched ...... )
NBC says the news was announced over the PA at this evening's Mets-Phillies game (now in the 12th inning), and the game had to be paused for several minutes while the crowd cheered and chanted, "USA! USA! USA!"
Quoting Neapolitan:
Coincidentally, it was eight years ago today that Pres. Bush gave his famous "Mission Accomplished" speech on the deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln, so it turns out he was only 2,922 days premature.



LOL just slightly premature!


But we all know only Republicans are patriots and are the only ones who want to win a war so its probably a conspiracy :)

I might disagree with Obama on a lot of things but at least he finishes the job.
"The American people did not choose this fight. It came to our shores. As a country we will never tolerate our security being threatened. And on nights like this one, we can say to families - justice has been done." ~President Barack Obama
904. 7544
so was he killed last week or today getting confused now but its all good they got him no matter when it was :)
Well, that is some very good news. Now perhaps the US government can pull back / stand down a bit and begin to divert some war-directed resources towards other things, like infrastructural maintainance and alternative energy development.
906. beell
Quoting BahaHurican:
Well, that is some very good news. Now perhaps the US government can pull back / stand down a bit and begin to divert some war-directed resources towards other things, like infrastructural maintainance and alternative energy development.


Do you really think the killing of a crippled, sickly old man will result in less of a threat to our security?
Sources said the attack was carried out by Joint Special Operations Command forces working with the CIA.

A Pakistani intelligence official tells ABC News that this was a joint U.S.-Pakistani operation and that last night at 1:30am local time, two American helicopters swooped into Abbottabad, a town about 100 miles from Islamabad.

One of the helicopters was shot down, according to this Pakistani official.
Full Story
Link

Source ABC News
FINALLY....some GOOD NEWS !! USA...USA...USA..


We will NEVER forget
Quoting beell:


Do you really think the killing of a crippled, sickly old man will result in less of a threat to our security?
Not really, or more accurately, not right away. It does make the US seem a lot less "wimpy" than it has during the last 10 years. It also implies that the US armed forces are making some strides against the Al Qaeda groups that they have been fighting.

So, maybe it won't lead to an immediate reduction, but for the first time since Bush started this war, I feel a little more hopeful that there may be an end of it for Americans.
Well, as we celebrate this momentous occassion, please bear in mind that we are under a heightened security alert. Plus we still have military stationed throughout the Middle East and other locations around the world. Please pray for all of us..
Ah.... so he started the process last week, but they didn't actually do it until today.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Ah.... so he started the process last week, but they didn't actually do it until today.


That's the way I understand it....
Who Leads al-Qaeda Now That Osama bin Laden is Dead?
by NowPublic Staff | May 1, 2011 at 07:30 pm

Osama bin Laden Killed- Who Runs al-Qaeda?

Al Qaeda's acting leader is a man name Adnan Shukrijumah, who in turn took over from 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed. Osama bin Laden, who has just been killed by US forces in Pakistan, was a founder and major financial backer of al Qaeda. (White House Live Stream: Osama bin Laden dead)

Adnan Shukrijumah, 35 years old, was born in Saudi Arabia and was raised in the United States, where he worked as a computer technician. He is considered by the US government to be al Qaeda's "chief of operations", and has been linked with several aborted or thwarted terror plots on US soil, including a 2009 plot against the New York subway system.



The War on Terror Continues

So, the death of Osama bin Laden does not mean the end of the "war on terror", as there will always be someone willing to take up the extremist cause. This is a massive victory for the US military and for the White House, though the immediate response will be a tightening of security around US government buildings and foreign assets, in case of retaliatory attacks.

Continue reading at NowPublic.com: Who Leads al-Qaeda Now That Osama bin Laden is Dead? | NowPublic News Coverage http://www.nowpublic.com/world/who-leads-al-qaeda- now-osama-bin-laden-dead-2782937.html#ixzz1LALbjjp A

CHARLESTON, Mo. — As a huge storm settled over southeastern Missouri on Sunday, the Army Corps of Engineers
began the overnight task of filling an 11,000-foot system of buried
pipes with an explosive material to blow a two-mile-long gap in the
Birds Point levee
here. The breach would inundate about 130,000 acres of farmland to
relieve pressure on the overburdened system of levees to the north.






Multimedia






Map



Birds Point, Mo.






Related





Enlarge This Image




Joon Powell for The New York Times
Col. Vernie L. Reichling, of the Army Corps of Engineers, monitored water levels in Cairo, Ill.





“We’ve been told to go, but we’ve got two more cells of lightning that
need to move through here before we start to pump,” Jim Lloyd, the
corps’ operations team leader, said as he walked through the wind and
rain late Sunday afternoon. “We’re going to work through the night to
get this loaded.”
Mr. Lloyd, who had just left a briefing, emphasized that although Maj.
Gen. Michael J. Walsh, who commands the Mississippi Valley Division of
the corps, had ordered that the explosives be loaded, he had yet to give
the final word to blast the levee.
“He’ll still have to make the decision,” Mr. Lloyd said, adding that
although the explosives were extremely stable and would not be primed,
the lightning was “going to complicate our lives something fierce.” more
Yeah, Ally, there will be some out there who will want to retaliate. But [and I know I sound ridiculous in a way, but still] if one is going to be blown up, better to be blown up for something i.e. killing bin Ladin, than just because pple are malicious and see Americans as sheep....
Bin Laden is dead,but will talibs weaken?Probably yes.I'm watching live Polsat News,americans are crazy behind White House!!! Now army must push to win
Quoting BahaHurican:
Well, that is some very good news. Now perhaps the US government can pull back / stand down a bit and begin to divert some war-directed resources towards other things, like infrastructural maintainance and alternative energy development.


BWAHAHAHAHAHA! Hee hee hee hoo hoo...oh my sides WAHAHAHAHAHA!

Man you are one funny guy! That was a good one! Infrastructure. Alternative energy. *snicker*

Oh wait...you were serious?

Forgive my cynicism, but that isn't going to happen with this congress.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Yeah, Ally, there will be some out there who will want to retaliate. But [and I know I sound ridiculous in a way, but still] if one is going to be blown up, better to be blown up for something i.e. killing bin Ladin, than just because pple are malicious and see Americans as sheep....


Hell, I don't want to get blown up!...I work near a university and I will leave it at that!..lol
Report: New Al Qaeda Leader Knows U.S. Well
MIAMI -- A suspected Al Qaeda operative who lived for more than 15 years in the U.S. has become chief of the terror network's global operations, the FBI says, marking the first time a leader so intimately familiar with American society has been placed in charge of planning attacks.

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/us/2010/08/06/report-new-al -qaida-leader-knows/#ixzz1LAO9q3t2

"What's dangerous about an individual that understands the U.S. is he may have a better sense of our security vulnerabilities and insights into how to terrify the American people using smaller attacks for large, political impact," said Brian Fishman, a counterterrorism research fellow at the New America Foundation. "This increases the risk of attacks outside traditional places we normally worry about like New York and Washington."

America will always have her enemies,,thats a given,
but tonight we celebrate the US Armed Forces Execution of the Architect of 911.

So I for one Stand Proud of the Job well done.

Quoting Patrap:
America will always have her enemies,,thats a given,
but tonight we celebrate the US Armed Forces Execution of the Architect of 911.

So I for one Stand Proud of the Job well done.



+10000000
From that map, the MO area that is supposed to be flooded by the COE move is part of the natural flood plain of the Mississippi.... I'm not saying it's not bad what they're doing... I'm just saying it's only because of the COE that those farmers are able to live and farm on that land on a regular basis in the first place. It sure would make life a lot easier further upstream if they could just let that land be flooded every time the water gets high....

It's just another comment in the lines of "why do you live there if you know it floods / gets hit by tornadoes / has earthquakes / is a hurricane magnet" and so on.... you gotta live somewhere, right?

If I had to choose, I'd breach on both sides... then everybody would be mad at COE and be neighbourly in their angst.... :o) [aka wisdom of Solomon].
Quoting sunlinepr:
Report: New Al Qaeda Leader Knows U.S. Well
MIAMI -- A suspected Al Qaeda operative who lived for more than 15 years in the U.S. has become chief of the terror network's global operations, the FBI says, marking the first time a leader so intimately familiar with American society has been placed in charge of planning attacks.

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/us/2010/08/06/report-new-al -qaida-leader-knows/#ixzz1LAO9q3t2

"What's dangerous about an individual that understands the U.S. is he may have a better sense of our security vulnerabilities and insights into how to terrify the American people using smaller attacks for large, political impact," said Brian Fishman, a counterterrorism research fellow at the New America Foundation. "This increases the risk of attacks outside traditional places we normally worry about like New York and Washington."

I love Fox News.... lol
Quoting eddy12:
obama on at 10:30 who cares just another president blowing smoke up my a**


LOL. Maybe you'll reconsider saying such arrogant inconsiderate words in the future.


Anyway, good news about osama's death. Not sure what this will mean for us security and the war in Afghanistan

Quoting Neapolitan:
So far 147 tornadoes have been confirmed (that's one fewer than occurred during the 1974 Super Outbreak), and there are still 120 or so left to survey. The confirmed numbers break down like this:

EF0: 30
EF1: 57
EF2: 32
EF3: 19
EF4: 13
EF5: 2

There are actually a few dozen or so EF3/EF4 candidates to survey; we should get many more numbers by the end of the day tomorrow.

Has the tuscaloosa tornado been rated yet?
the united states armed forces did not kill him the cia did. either way i'm happy
Quoting sunlinepr:
Who Leads al-Qaeda Now That Osama bin Laden is Dead?
by NowPublic Staff | May 1, 2011 at 07:30 pm

Osama bin Laden Killed- Who Runs al-Qaeda?

Al Qaeda's acting leader is a man name Adnan Shukrijumah, who in turn took over from 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed. Osama bin Laden, who has just been killed by US forces in Pakistan, was a founder and major financial backer of al Qaeda. (White House Live Stream: Osama bin Laden dead)

Adnan Shukrijumah, 35 years old, was born in Saudi Arabia and was raised in the United States, where he worked as a computer technician. He is considered by the US government to be al Qaeda's "chief of operations", and has been linked with several aborted or thwarted terror plots on US soil, including a 2009 plot against the New York subway system.



The War on Terror Continues

So, the death of Osama bin Laden does not mean the end of the "war on terror", as there will always be someone willing to take up the extremist cause. This is a massive victory for the US military and for the White House, though the immediate response will be a tightening of security around US government buildings and foreign assets, in case of retaliatory attacks.

Continue reading at NowPublic.com: Who Leads al-Qaeda Now That Osama bin Laden is Dead? | NowPublic News Coverage http://www.nowpublic.com/world/who-leads-al-qaeda- now-osama-bin-laden-dead-2782937.html#ixzz1LALbjjp A


The war on terror will never end. It's not supposed to. It's like the war on drugs, only drugs are a real tangible item. Terrorism is subjective, heavily biased by which side you happen to be on. It also happens to be quite profitable for many businesses.

So no, in the grand scheme of things killing bin Laden is, at best, a hollow victory. This may satisfy the hunger for vengeance, but vengeance creates more vengeance. As others have noted, this may only escalate the threat of retaliatory strikes.
well this kind of sucks


Wikipedia put it all togeter


but the Hackleburg, Phil Campbell, Hillsboro, Trinity, Tanner, Madison areas where all EF5


66+ deaths –Thousands of hardwood and softwood trees were snapped, some hundreds of structures completely destroyed, mobile homes' "mangled frames tossed at least 25 to 50 yards," well-constructed houses destroyed. At least three churches, ten chicken houses, and three restaurants, and a Wrangler plant were completely destroyed. Hackleburg High School was completely destroyed. A car was wrapped around a de-barked tree in Phil Campbell.[6][7][8] The NWS has rated it an EF5 with winds up to 210 MPH.[9][10]
Further information: April 25–28, 2011 tornado outbreak#Hackleburg tornado and the section on this tornado.



if Wikipedia did not add them all togeter then we would have 6 EF5 then 2 EF5
tom taylor your right i have to apologize the one time a president did not lie to us
930. beell
924. BahaHurican 4:41 AM GMT on May 02, 2011
I love Fox News.... lol


I don't watch TV. Made the mistake of going to Mother-in-Law's room to catch the President.
It was on FOX...Geraldo is not my idea of a newsman...

I don't watch TV...I get all my news off the internet, LOL!
Quoting Xyrus2000:


The war on terror will never end. It's not supposed to. It's like the war on drugs, only drugs are a real tangible item. Terrorism is subjective, heavily biased by which side you happen to be on. It also happens to be quite profitable for many businesses.

So no, in the grand scheme of things killing bin Laden is, at best, a hollow victory. This may satisfy the hunger for vengeance, but vengeance creates more vengeance. As others have noted, this may only escalate the threat of retaliatory strikes.

True... Exactly just like the war on drugs... We have to be prepared for what may come in our near future.....

Quoting Tazmanian:
well this kind of sucks


Wikipedia put it all togeter


but the Hackleburg, Phil Campbell, Hillsboro, Trinity, Tanner, Madison areas where all EF5


66+ deaths –Thousands of hardwood and softwood trees were snapped, some hundreds of structures completely destroyed, mobile homes' "mangled frames tossed at least 25 to 50 yards," well-constructed houses destroyed. At least three churches, ten chicken houses, and three restaurants, and a Wrangler plant were completely destroyed. Hackleburg High School was completely destroyed. A car was wrapped around a de-barked tree in Phil Campbell.[6][7][8] The NWS has rated it an EF5 with winds up to 210 MPH.[9][10]
Further information: April 25–28, 2011 tornado outbreak#Hackleburg tornado and the section on this tornado.



if Wikipedia did not add them all togeter then we would have 6 EF5 then 2 EF5
But this is what I been saying all along, Taz. They will prolly do a double check to be sure the Smithville tornado is actually not the same as the Hackleburg one.... either way that was one powerful storm cell....
LOL @ beell... I watched the president on the internet.... whitehouse.gov live-streamed it.... lol

I don't watch FoxNews.... but was curious how they handled the post announcement commentary....

Quoting sunlinepr:

True... Exactly just like the war on drugs... We have to be prepared for what may come in our near future.....

Somebody here said they didn't hear Prez. Obama mention anything about the "war on terror" in his address. That is an interesting observation.

Quoting BahaHurican:
But this is what I been saying all along, Taz. They will prolly do a double check to be sure the Smithville tornado is actually not the same as the Hackleburg one.... either way that was one powerful storm cell....



you mean too tell me that it was all one nado



that sucks
Anyway, I gotta get out early in the a.m. .... trying a new gym routine [we'll see how THAT works.... lol]

Have a good night, all!
Quoting Tazmanian:



you mean too tell me that it was all one nado



that sucks
Well, maybe not... if it was, it's a definite tri-stater.... and a sure runner-up for longest-lived EF-5....
What taz said reminds me of a point I wanted to make awhile back but forgot. I call into question the authenticity of the F5 count of the 1974 outbreak. Just about every EF5/F5 I've heard of in modern times has been a fairly long track tornado, yet 5/6 of the F5s reported are fairly short tracked from that outbreak. Not to mention, 3/6 of the F5s obviously came from the same cell once you look at the outbreak map.



For reference the F5 cells are 37, 40, 43, 47, 96, 101
Quoting Xyrus2000:


The war on terror will never end. It's not supposed to. It's like the war on drugs, only drugs are a real tangible item. Terrorism is subjective, heavily biased by which side you happen to be on. It also happens to be quite profitable for many businesses.

So no, in the grand scheme of things killing bin Laden is, at best, a hollow victory. This may satisfy the hunger for vengeance, but vengeance creates more vengeance. As others have noted, this may only escalate the threat of retaliatory strikes.
Very true, good post +1
Quoting BahaHurican:
LOL @ beell... I watched the president on the internet.... whitehouse.gov live-streamed it.... lol

I don't watch FoxNews.... but was curious how they handled the post announcement commentary....

Somebody here said they didn't hear Prez. Obama mention anything about the "war on terror" in his address. That is an interesting observation.





Secrecy man, it's key. The media wild bores are making it more important than ever to keep a damn secret. Who cares how & when, the mission has been accomplished.

After the speech, did you know who did it and when it happened? That's a good damn secret and lending to counter terrorism as these animals were probably scouring every inch of the speech. Some stuff is best left unknown.
Anybody know if the Tuscaloosa tornado has been rated yet?
Quoting TomTaylor:
Anybody know if the Tuscaloosa tornado has been rated yet?



yes it been rated a EF4 for now
Quoting TomTaylor:
Anybody know if the Tuscaloosa tornado has been rated yet?


It has not been rated, they only rated the damage in Pleasant Grove as EF4.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


The war on terror will never end. It's not supposed to. It's like the war on drugs, only drugs are a real tangible item. Terrorism is subjective, heavily biased by which side you happen to be on. It also happens to be quite profitable for many businesses.

So no, in the grand scheme of things killing bin Laden is, at best, a hollow victory. This may satisfy the hunger for vengeance, but vengeance creates more vengeance. As others have noted, this may only escalate the threat of retaliatory strikes.


Thanks. First sensible response I've seen to this news yet.
945. xcool
first it was the capturing of Iraq's tyrant(who was friends with Ben Ladan). Now we've captured the second supporter of terrorism. Now we need to get the leader!!!

America is getting closer to ending this war(congrats to Obama and Bush even though I disagree with both)!!!
Quoting weatherbro:
first it was the capturing of Iraq's tyrant(who was friends with Ben Ladan). Now we've captured the second supporter of terrorism. Now we need to get the leader!!!

America is getting closer to ending this war(congrats to Obama and Bush even though I disagree with both)!!!


The worry is whether the ends will truly lead to an end/cessation to the threat.

For every American killed (as in 9/11, and other events), hatred and intolerance grows, and the desire to strike back elsewhere increases. I know in the UK the ongoing troubles have lead to a huge increase in racially motivated violence, particularly agains Muslims, and a groundswell in support of the far-right... particularly since 7/7, and this has allowed the government to pass some quite strict legislation restricting civil liberties. I understand it's the same in the US, even more so. Haven't been out here in Australia long enough to comment, but there certainly seems to be a strong anti-Muslim undercurrent here, particularly from the political right...

At the same time as that, for every Iraqi, Pakistani, of Afghan civilian killed, hatred and intolerance for the west will be growing - and those deaths can be used by those in power to stoke the flames and push through their own laws that diminish civil liberties... well, you get the picture. And if I remember right, there was a report about a year ago that said approximately 100,000 Iraqis have died since the second invasion as a direct result of the UK and US led attack? While I believe it came from an organisation strongly opposed to the war, if we even assume it's an over-estimate by a factor of 100, that's still 1,000 families with what they perceive as good reason to hate the west just as much as those affected by 9/11 and 7/7 hate...

All that the ongoing violence does is create more violence. As a Brit, who grew up with the troubles in Northern Ireland going on, the link between violence from once side and violence from the other is crystal clear. Each time one side did something, more people on the other side were alienated and driven to their own extreme acts.

Interestingly, the end to the Northern Ireland troubles was, in part, aided by the tragic events of 9/11. One of the main sources of funds and weapons for the IRA were wealthly Americans who were supporting the "freedom fighters". Once they saw first hands the true effects of terrorism, the funds and guns dried up, which had noticable effect on the levels of sectarian crime in Northern Ireland.

Anyways, this isn't meant as a flame, or to detract from the joy people are feeling at the news - frankly, I think it's a shame the guy couldn't be captured and tried for his crimes, but I worry that the lengths people have gone to to get revenge for the horrors that were perpertrated have just made the problem far worse :(

Oh, and Weatherbro, I believe I'm right in thinking that both Saddam and Bin Laden were trained by the west, and even armed by them at times - Saddam because Iraq were viewed as less a threat than Iran, and Bin Laden because he was fighting against the Taliban? I might be wrong, though...

Edited to fix typos and clarify
Quoting TomTaylor:
Anybody know if the Tuscaloosa tornado has been rated yet?

Just about the time you asked the question, the NWS announced that it was an EF4, though they leave open the option to upgrade after further investigation (previously they'd been saying "EVENT TYPE: AT LEAST EF-4)":

- - - - - - - - - - - - - -

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
120 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2011

TORNADO 8...TUSCALOOSA/BIRMINGHAM (GREENE/TUSCALOOSA/JEFFERSON
COUNTIES)

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: APRIL 27, 2011
EVENT TYPE: EF-4
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): UP TO 190
INJURIES/FATALITIES: OVER 1000 INJURIES/AT LEAST 65 FATALITIES.
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 33.0297/-87.935 AT 443 PM
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 33.6311/-86.7436 AT 614 PM
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): APPROXIMATELY 80.3 MILES
DAMAGE WIDTH: 1.5 MILES CROSSING I-65.
NOTE: MORE DETAILS ON THIS SURVEY TO COME.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE SURVEYED THE MASSIVE
DAMAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LONG TRACK VIOLENT TORNADO...BY GROUND
AND AIR. THE START POINT IS BASED ON AERIAL SURVEY...WHILE THE END
LOCATION WAS DETERMINED BY A GROUND CREW. DETAILED DAMAGE INSPECTION
HAS REVEALED A MAXIMUM OF EF-4 DAMAGE FROM EAST OF HOLT...NEAR
CONCORD...AND THE PLEASANT GROVE AREAS. CASUALTY INFORMATION IS
BASED ON THE LATEST OFFICIAL RELEASES FROM THE ALABAMA EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT AGENCY. THIS TORNADO WAS PRODUCED BY A SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORM THAT BEGAN IN NEWTON COUNTY MISSISSIPPI AT 254 PM
CDT...FINALLY DISSIPATING IN MACON COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA AT
APPROXIMATELY 1018 PM CDT. SO...THIS SUPERCELL EXISTED FOR ABOUT 7
HOURS AND 24 MINUTES...TRAVELING APPROXIMATELY 380 MILES PRODUCING
SEVERAL STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES ALONG THE WAY. ADDITIONAL
EVALUATION OF THE DAMAGE IN TUSCALOOSA AND JEFFERSON COUNTY WILL
CONTINUE TODAY TO DETERMINE IF THE RATING NEEDS TO BE INCREASED.

MORE DETAIL ON THE SURVEY RESULTS WILL BE UPDATED WHEN THEY BECOME
AVAILABLE.
Morning, all.

Nea, that looks like pretty much the same info they've been putting out about that particular tornado since, say, Friday? You would have to look back at some of the older statements to be sure. However, I think each update has been cumulative, that is, inclusive of all previous data, just with additions and changes added in.

I need to check when I get to work. Right now, gotta head out in a couple...
It's an update, yes, but the Birmingham NWS office announced it in a banner headline at 1:30AM, so it is indeed something new and noteworthy. (Any tornado can be upgraded or downgraded even years after it happens, though for now the Tuscaloosa tornado is confirmed as an EF4.)

Click here to see the banner while it's still up

But, no, they don't rewrite each update from the ground up. That'd be a waste... ;-)
My, my, my.
Flooding situation on the Ohio and Misssissippi this morning is setting up to be even more critical than previously feared. This heavy precip is taking dead-aim on the worst-hit regions:



Already causing a spike to a new crest on the Mississippi:



and looks like it will push the Ohio even higher than previously projected:
to any and all- if the decision is made to blow bird's point, will someone please wu-mail me?

can't imagine we'll make it past the next 7 days without that decision being made, one way or another

TYIA
956. IKE
One less evil person exists on the planet...check.

Job well done!
Quoting aquak9:
to any and all- if the decision is made to blow bird's point, will someone please wu-mail me?

can't imagine we'll make it past the next 7 days without that decision being made, one way or another

TYIA


Who is ' Bird's Point'?
958. IKE
Quoting presslord:


Who is ' Bird's Point'?

Explosives loaded for Birds Point Levee breach.

Bird's Point is an unincorporated community in Mississippi County, Missouri, United States. It lies on an island or former island in the Mississippi River near the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers is situated directly across the Mississippi River from Cairo, Illinois. This is the point where the U.S. Highway 60 bridge connects up with Wickliffe, Kentucky.
Quoting IKE:

Explosives loaded for Birds Point Levee breach.

Bird's Point is an unincorporated community in Mississippi County, Missouri, United States. It lies on an island or former island in the Mississippi River near the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers is situated directly across the Mississippi River from Cairo, Illinois. This is the point where the U.S. Highway 60 bridge connects up with Wickliffe, Kentucky.



ah....my bad...
960. IKE

Quoting IKE:
One less evil person exists on the planet...check.

Job well done!


Justice is served. Better late than never.
962. DDR
Picked up just over an inch of rain this morning from the surface trough over the windward islands.
964. beell
Quoting Gearsts:

La Nina still seems to have a firm grasp on the Pacific. Is the trend going to continue for a while or will it be converting to neutral soon? TIA
Good morning all. Does anyone have the latest forecast for Hell?
This is sad.
No rain for another week here in East Central Florida.
nothing nada
Quoting BobinTampa:
Good morning all. Does anyone have the latest forecast for Hell?

I heard it was expected to be quite nice...compared to Texas! =)
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Rain Below Average In Hendry-Glades

16 Florida Counties Record Lowest Rain Totals In 80 Years

CLEWISTON, FL. -- The South Florida Water Management District says the District's 16-county region experienced the driest October-to-February period since recordkeeping began nearly 80 years ago. While regional rainfall for March was average, April's rainfall has so far been less than half of the historical average.

Long-term forecasts call for extreme dry conditions through the rest of the annual dry season.

from Southwest Florida ONline


970. beell
Quoting BobinTampa:
Good morning all. Does anyone have the latest forecast for Hell?


Hell, Michigan Forecast/Wunderground.com
Quoting beell:


Hell, Michigan Forecast/Wunderground.com


Thanks. But I meant the Hell that Usama is heading to. :o)
Quoting BobinTampa:
Good morning all. Does anyone have the latest forecast for Hell?
Ice storm, frozen over.
Quoting BobinTampa:
Good morning all. Does anyone have the latest forecast for Hell?

Monday:
Hot, with highs around 130F, and lows around 129F. Zero chance of rain, 72 virgins missing.
Tuesday:
Hot, with highs around 130F, and lows around 129F. Zero chance of rain, 72 virgins missing.
Wednesday through eternity:
Hot, with highs around 130F, and lows around 129F. Zero chance of rain, 72 virgins missing.
Quoting BobinTampa:


Thanks. But I meant the Hell that Usama is heading to. :o)



There is a chance of firestorms each afternoon. Chance of a firestorm is 90%. Highs near 1000 and lows near 900 each day, accept higher temperatures near firestorms.

Quoting kwgirl:
Ice storm, frozen over.


Nope, the last ice age was a while ago, man is causing global warming, and man must also then be causing hell warming.
2011




2010



The Gulf of Mexico is going to be boiling hot this season.
977. IKE
NEW BLOG!
Quoting BahaHurican:
From that map, the MO area that is supposed to be flooded by the COE move is part of the natural flood plain of the Mississippi.... I'm not saying it's not bad what they're doing... I'm just saying it's only because of the COE that those farmers are able to live and farm on that land on a regular basis in the first place. It sure would make life a lot easier further upstream if they could just let that land be flooded every time the water gets high....

It's just another comment in the lines of "why do you live there if you know it floods / gets hit by tornadoes / has earthquakes / is a hurricane magnet" and so on.... you gotta live somewhere, right?

If I had to choose, I'd breach on both sides... then everybody would be mad at COE and be neighbourly in their angst.... :o) [aka wisdom of Solomon].


And if I lived downstream, I'd sue the people that are trying to keep that levee intact.

If the COE determined that that section would protect downstream areas, why should a small group of individuals decide if thir small amout of land was more important that the thousands of properties than can be saved?