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Over 15,000 likely dead in Russian heat wave; Asian monsoon floods kill hundreds more

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:13 PM GMT on August 09, 2010

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 brought temperatures of 37°C (99°F) to Moscow today, and smog and smoke from wildfires blanketed the city for a sixth straight day. Air pollution levels were 2 - 3 times the maximum safe level today, and peaked on Saturday, when when carbon monoxide hit 6.5 times the safe level. The death toll from heat and air pollution increased to approximately 330 people per day in Moscow in recent days, according to the head of the Moscow health department. Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, said excess deaths in Moscow in July averaged 155 per day, compared to 2009. The heat wave began on June 27. These grim statistics suggest that in Moscow alone, the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 has likely killed at least 7,000 people so far. A plot of the departure of July 2010 temperatures from average (Figure 1) shows that the area of Russia experiencing incredible heat is vast, and that regions southeast of Moscow have the hottest, relative to average. Moscow is the largest city in Russia, with a population just over ten million, but there are several other major cities in the heat wave region. These include Saint Petersburg, Russia's 2nd most populous city (4.6 million), and Nizhny Novgorod, Russia's 5th most populous city (1.3 million people.) Thus, the Russian population affected by extreme heat is at least double the population of Moscow, and the death toll in Russia from the 2010 heat wave is probably at least 15,000, and may be much higher. The only comparable heat wave in European history occurred in 2003, and killed an estimated 40,000 - 50,000 people, mostly in France and Italy. While the temperatures in that heat wave were not as extreme as the Russian heat wave, the nighttime low temperatures in the 2003 heat wave were considerably higher. This tends to add to heat stress and causes a higher death toll. I expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, it may rival the 2003 European heat wave as the deadliest heat wave in world history.


Figure 1. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Worst Russian heat wave in 1,000 years of history
The temperature at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport hit 99°F (37°C) today. Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past two weeks. Temperatures the past 27 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow. Alexander Frolov, head of Russia's weather service, said in a statement today, "Our ancestors haven't observed or registered a heat like that within 1,000 years. This phenomenon is absolutely unique." There is some slight relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures of 31 - 33°C (88 - 91 °F) Wednesday though Sunday.

Belarus records its hottest temperature in history for the second day in a row
The Russian heat wave has also affected the neighboring nations of Ukraine and Belarus. All three nations have recorded their hottest temperatures in history over the past few weeks. Belarus, on the western border of Russia, recorded its hottest temperature in history on Saturday, August 7, when the mercury hit 38.9°C (102°F) in Gomel. This broke the all-time record for extreme heat set just one day before, the 38.7°C (101.7°F) recorded in Gorky. Prior to 2010, the hottest temperature ever recorded in Belarus was the 38.0°C (100.4°F) in Vasiliyevichy on Aug. 20, 1946. As I described in detail in Saturday's post, Belarus' new all-time extreme heat record gives the year 2010 the most national extreme heat records for a single year--seventeen. These nations comprise 19% of the total land area of Earth. This is the largest area of Earth's surface to experience all-time record high temperatures in any single year in the historical record. Looking back at the past decade, which was the hottest decade in the historical record, Seventy-five countries set extreme hottest temperature records (33% of all countries.) For comparison, fifteen countries set extreme coldest temperature records over the past ten years (6% of all countries). Earth has now seen four consecutive months with its warmest temperature on record, and the first half of 2010 was the warmest such 6-month period in the planet's history. It is not a surprise that many all-time extreme heat records are being shattered when the planet as a whole is so warm. Global warming "loads the dice" to favor extreme heat events unprecedented in recorded history.

July SSTs in the tropical Atlantic set a new record
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest July on record, according to an analysis I did of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were 1.33°C above average during July, beating the previous record of 1.19°C set in July 2005. July 2010 was the sixth straight record warm month in the tropical Atlantic, and had the third warmest anomaly of any month in history. The five warmest months in history for the tropical Atlantic have all occurred this year. As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs, though global warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also play a role.

The magnitude of the anomaly has increased slightly since June, because trade winds over the tropical Atlantic were at below-normal speeds during July. These lower trade wind speeds were due to the fact that the Bermuda-Azores High had below-normal surface pressures over the past month. The Bermuda-Azores High and its associated trade winds are forecast to remain at below-average strength during the next two weeks, according to the latest runs of the GFS model. This means that Atlantic SST anomalies will continue to stay at record warm levels during the remainder of August, and probably during September as well. This should significantly increase the odds of getting major hurricanes in the Atlantic during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August through mid-October.


Figure 2. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for August 9, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

94L
A area of disurbed weather (94L) over South Florida is generating disorganized heavy thunderstorms over Florida and the adjacent waters, but is not a threat to develop today due to high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, tonight through Thursday. This relaxation in shear may allow 94L to begin to organize. However, 94L will not have much time over the Gulf of Mexico to become a tropical depression or tropical storm, as steering currents favor a westward or west-northwestward motion over the Gulf that would bring the storm ashore over the northern Gulf coast by Wednesday or Thursday. NHC is giving 94L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 94L on Tuesday afternoon.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) in the middle Atlantic Ocean is close to tropical depression status. The disturbance has a well-defined surface circulation, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next two days, which should allow 93L to become a tropical depression by Tuesday. NHC is giving a 70% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. A strong trough of low pressure moving across the central Atlantic should force 93L to turn northward on Wednesday, and 93L should only be a concern to shipping interests. None of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days, other than for 93L.

A exceptionally slow-starting typhoon season
There is one bit of good weather news to report. Over in the Western Pacific, typhoon season has been remarkably quiet this year. Prior to yesterday's formation of Tropical Storm Dianmu, just three named storms had formed this year--Tropical Storm Omais, Typhoon Conson, and Typhoon Chanthu. The average for this point in the season is ten storms. Sunday's total of three named storms in the West Pacific tied 2010 with 1998, 1954, and 1975 as the slowest starting Western Pacific typhoon season on record, for the date August 8. Now that we have Tropical Storm Dianmu in the Western Pacific, 2010 ranks as the 4th slowest start to a typhoon season as of August 9. Reliable records of typhoon activity go back to 1951.


Figure 3. Heavy downpours triggered landslides and mud-rock flows in China's Gansu Province, early Sunday morning. Image credit: www.news.cn.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds more in China, India, and Pakistan over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has been exceptionally deadly this year. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit over the weekend with torrential monsoon rains, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. At least 1300 people are missing in the disaster. Fresh monsoon rains in Pakistan over the weekend triggered landslides that killed sixty more people, in addition to the 1,500 - 1,600 people who died in monsoon floods that began in late July. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, with 500 people missing. Monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon on Tuesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change Heat Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Jeff9641, As long as you concider "just West" as LA or West then you are correct.
Quoting msgambler:
Jeff9641, As long as you concider "just West" as LA or West then you are correct.


Yep, NOLA to Panama City!
2503. scott39
Is the ULL going to help, hurt or do nothing at all to 94L?
2504. GetReal
One of the factors that some of the downcasters seem to discarding is that 94L, unlike many of our earlier systems, is in no hurry to go anywhere ATT...

This means that is will have more time over those extremely warm GOM waters to play with, organize and yes strengthen... Unlike many of the previous systems in the NW Caribbean and GOM that were rapidly moving, and having no time to organize.
2505. IKE
Quoting twhcracker:


they downplay things on the news here so as to not keep tourists away. this morning on panama city news they said there was a little storm out there that "will probably not even make tropical storm strength" and even if it does "we'll just have those occasional feeder bands come thru".


They're probably correct. And I don't blame them for downplaying it. Tourism industry in NW FL. has taken a huge hit from the oil spill.

Quoting DestinJeff:
I am in Destin ... no kidding ... not overly concerned about 94L.

Worse comes to worst, I'll pack up the crew and we'll head to our Safe-Haven at Ike's place.


It's only a 45 minute drive! Take the mid-bay bridge. I'll reimburse you the toll charge!
Quoting divdog:
no bold predictions .. always lands you on the hot seat.


Nothing bold about that as 94L is starting to look quite good right now. I really think we will see this a TD sometime later today.
Quoting psuweathernewbie:
I see some low level spiral bands on the northwest quadrant of 94L's low level center. Although not sure if they are more so outflow boundaries. I believe they are spiral bands given the increase to 60% by the NHC at the 8am TWO.


You are looking at the overall "circulation" of clouds around the low (which is pretty far reaching) but not spiral bands or outflow; that will not happen until an actual depression or TS forms.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Yep, NOLA to Panama City!
Sorry, had to pull out my map book....yep.....Panama is East of NOLA so you may be wrong. I said WEST
Quoting IKE:


They're probably correct. And I don't blame them for downplaying it. Tourism industry in NW FL. has taken a huge hit from the oil spill.



It's only a 45 minute drive! Take the mid-bay bridge. I'll reimburse you the toll charge!
Ah heck I know about where ya live Ike. I usually go a little farther east and cross the non toll bridge and then head back west to my condo.

Next time Im down in Destin its party at Ike's??
I don't thik 94L is moving south anymore. It seems to be stationary or moving a bit NNW on the visible. What do y'all think?
2514. Jax82
Mother nature can and sometimes will throw a curveball and make everyone look like an amateur. Though we should always base our decisions on the pro's and Met's it is entertaining to see some peoples predictions on here.
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
Im so thankful for "morning people"...

I think right next to the fire alarm there should also be a "break glass in case of moody morning person" glass and inside should be some "green" brownies and something to spike the morning coffee....gee whiz...breath, take yoga, put on some Yanni and chill out


You got that right..lol. I've been up since 4:15 and in & out of here....
2516. ssmate
Well, I'll admit, 94L is much better organized than I thought it would be by this time. I'm willing to bet my lif...I'm willing to bet a Coke that it develops into something stronger than predicted.
2518. IKE
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
Ah heck I know about where ya live Ike. I usually go a little farther east and cross the non toll bridge and then head back west to my condo.

Next time Im down in Destin its party at Ike's??


This is a nice area for an outdoor party...bonfire...keg of beer....scenic view of Lake Holley. I'll even let you walk on my dock.

Quoting DestinJeff:


"It's the quickest way to Destin!"

Funny. Have you ever noticed that picture on the billboard is taken FROM the Destin side of the bridge? Even though it is touting the bridge as the quickest way TO Destin.


True...I never had thought of that.
KEG OF BEER???? Everyone to Ike's
Great satellite loop for 94L
Link
Why does the "quote" button work sometimes, and then mostly, it doesn't? Is there a setting I need to change?
2522. tkeith
Hot tub anyone?



Center of circulation on radar is due west of Key West Florida.
Yeah looking at 93 I see what I think to me a more W over NW movement but regardless, most of the storms are in the NE and E section...sound familiar?

Today and tonight is going to determine if this makes it any farther past a TD, which I would classify now IMO.

There needs to be more intensity around the storm, better outflow, and in general better organization and strengthening. Can it do all of that in 24 hrs? Likely....the conditions are favorable in the GOM with low chance today of any ULL or shear.

Lately though the evening hours have been crazy and formation has been like a roller coaster ride....one day favorable and the next day not...

Quoting scott39:
Is the ULL going to help, hurt or do nothing at all to 94L?


Eventually help as the ULL moves out in front 94L. On the SE side it will provide venting and relatively lower shear.
2527. tkeith
Looks like it's tryin to wrap it up...
In reference to my question @ #2521:
I guess it is the standard "Captain Ron" answer:
"Nobody knows, Boss". Right?

It didn't work again. Pfffft!
2529. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest94
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




2530. FLHL2
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
Yeah looking at 93 I see what I think to me a more W over NW movement but regardless, most of the storms are in the NE and E section...sound familiar?

Today and tonight is going to determine if this makes it any farther past a TD, which I would classify now IMO.

There needs to be more intensity around the storm, better outflow, and in general better organization and strengthening. Can it do all of that in 24 hrs? Likely....the conditions are favorable in the GOM with low chance today of any ULL or shear.

Lately though the evening hours have been crazy and formation has been like a roller coaster ride....one day favorable and the next day not...



Ummm... It's 94 in the gulf,(not 93) and there is an ULL heading straight for it, which is currently spinning over the center of the state (which is clearly visible on water vapor sat) which should juice things up and get 94 spinning in tandem. Once that happens, we will have a TD in the gulf. Right now, its a weak surface low, not a storm.
The End?
Spiral banding occurs in developing potential tropical cyclones, that is how they become a tropical depression. The spiral bands shows signs of a closed circulation, as well as strong surface convergence which allows the system to strengthen at a more rapid pace. Spiral banding occurs when low level convergence strengthens and a tropical depression is imminent, it also is a sign of a tropical rather than sub tropical cyclone formation.
Atlantic with two red spots.

Like a 6 year old girl who has found her mother's rouge.
Looks like 94L's developing into a tropical cyclone.

Classic trough split system. This has very favorable conditions ahead of it too.


2535. Patrap
2537. tkeith
2529. Patrap 7:47

These dynamic models must be lookin over each others shoulders while takin the test...they're all givin the same answer :)
2538. Patrap
The Guidance is straight forward on this one tkeith seems.

Now intensity is going to be the one to watch thru the next 48.



jasoncoolman2010xx and wayfaringstranger after looking at the rgb sat loop for the last few minute I see that 93L has two COC with the West COC being weak located near 24.0N 52.9W and the stronger one near 24.0N 51.3W both quite naked rated R naked
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DIANMU (T1004)
21:00 PM JST August 10 2010
============================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In East China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Dianmu (980 hPa) located at 32.9N 125.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Storm Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
260 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
130 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 35.6N 130.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2/ Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 38.0N 137.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 43.3N 149.8E - Extratropical
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like 94L's developing into a tropical cyclone.

Classic trough split system. This has very favorable conditions ahead of it too.




This could become a hurricane I believe. GFDL and HWRF are getting more agressive with 100kts and 74 kts at peak intensity respectively.
The wave at 50 W 12.5 North is the same entity which exited Africa with an impressive form. After interacting with dry air and shear, it appears the storm is once again starting to consolidate nicely. Perhaps the NHC will declare the system as an AOI.
2543. tkeith
2535. Patrap 7:49 AM

That big area of dry air that was in the N.E. corner of the Gulf yesterday looks a bit more "moist" this mornin...
2544. Patrap
The Overall big circ is swinging some Moisture into it this morning.

2545. SeaMule
August

developing system slowly moving in the gulf...with at least 2-3 days to get it's act together.
DEEP hot sst's

ruh roh
Comment on #2532 since my "quote" button isn't working.

Also, the system needs to be out of the ITCZ to take advantage of the earth's spin. It's Coriolis force. North of the equator, when you unplug a drain or flush a toilet, it turns counter-clockwise. South of it the spin is clockwise. If it is sitting on the equator, or close to it, the force isn't as strong. So the further north, the quicker it will spin. Good consistent energy on that system though, I have been watching it too.
Quoting GetReal:
One of the factors that some of the downcasters seem to discarding is that 94L, unlike many of our earlier systems, is in no hurry to go anywhere ATT...

This means that is will have more time over those extremely warm GOM waters to play with, organize and yes strengthen... Unlike many of the previous systems in the NW Caribbean and GOM that were rapidly moving, and having no time to organize.


I agree and the GFDL is making it a Cat 1 at landfall. This is an extensive storm and it is moving between 5 to 10 mph if it is indeed moving at 5 mph in the boiling waters of the GOM I would not be surprised if 94L becomes the surprise of the season. We all have seen rapid intensification on these systems before, so we cannot rule that out. It went from yellow to red in less than 24 hours for that matter.
Wow extreme, that is intense.
Quoting StormW:


AVERAGE?





yeah pretty much dude, slow down with the caps buddy lol
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
jasoncoolman2010xx and wayfaringstranger after looking at the rgb sat loop for the last few minute I see that 93L has two COC with the West COC being weak located near 24.0N 52.9W and the stronger one near 24.0N 51.3W both quite naked rated R naked
if it winks at ya on the radar then please feel free to flirt back...

yeah I was noticing how we are now looking again at another system with an exposed SW, W, and NW side of the storm with most of the banding and intensity on the E side.

its possible for this all to start wrapping tigher together and all the ingedients are present for this storm to successfully develop.

I keep hearing all this "not enough time" to develope talk. Id remind folks that in 30 hrs or less you can have a nightmare of a storm.

I think a flight over this would be a conservative and cautious well played decision. I see a TD now. I hear folks say lets see what happens in 48 hrs...well that has a lot of merit. I think most of the intesity will be in the next 24 to 30. I tend to agree with the more west of New Orleans track with the dynamic models.
As far as 94L, low sheer and very warm waters will make for a very interesting 48 hours IMHO (until Dr. M comes on board with his analysis)..... :)
2554. scott39
94L moving 2mph--not good!
Comment on #2532 since my "quote" button isn't working.

Also, the system needs to be out of the ITCZ to take advantage of the earth's spin. It's Coriolis force. North of the equator, when you unplug a drain or flush a toilet, the liguid will turn counter-clockwise as it is draining. It is true in the atmosphere as well South of it the spin is clockwise. If it is sitting on the equator, or close to it, the force isn't as strong. So the further north, the quicker it will start to spin. If there were no Coriolis force, wind masses would slam into each other and there would be no smooth transitions from highs to lows.

Good consistent energy on that system though, I have been watching it too.
I agree with some of the models of 94L being a Hurricane at landfall along the C Gulf Coast. On the news this morning they are saying that they are concerned about OIL cleanup and the drilling process as they may have to evacuate. Also the NHC seems concerned as well when they were speaking about 94L. So downplay 94L if you want this could quite intense prior to making landfall.


Vorticity is decent at this time.
Looks like this one may have your name on it Patrick.
2558. Patrap
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 101143
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 820 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARDS ISLANDS HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY. THE LOW HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD TOWARD AN ENVIRONMENT A
LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER... THERE IS STILL A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...A LITTLE LESS THAN 100 MILES WEST OF SOUTHWEST COAST OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND SQUALLS. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Good Morning! :D I'm currently on vacation, so I haven't had a chance to talk on the blog.... :(
2560. tkeith
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
As far as 94L, low sheer and very warm waters will make for a very interesting 48 hours IMHO (until Dr. M comes on board with his analysis)..... :)
I'm forecasting Doc's comments today to be less about Russian heatwave and more about Gulf Low (94L)...
2561. MahFL
Quoting 1992Andrew:
The wave at 50 W 12.5 North is the same entity which exited Africa with an impressive form. After interacting with dry air and shear, it appears the storm is once again starting to consolidate nicely. Perhaps the NHC will declare the system as an AOI.


Please call a tropical wave a tropical wave, it's not a storm.
Tropical wave east of the Antilles at 50W looks interesting this morning.
Quoting Patrap:
The Overall big circ is swinging some Moisture into it this morning.




keep in mind that water vapor satellite indicates only upper air conditions, the lower half of the atmosphere is very moist all across the eastern gulf and Florida peninsula.

Once the upper low pulls across the state it will rapidly push the dry aloft away from the surface low, bringing cold air aloft for instability, while also saturating the mid to upper levels.
Quoting Jeff9641:
I agree with some of the models of 94L being a Hurricane at landfall along the C Gulf Coast. On the news this morning they are saying that they are concerned about OIL cleanup and the drilling process as they may have to evacuate. Also the NHC seems concerned as well when they were speaking about 94L. So downplay 94L if you want this could quite intense prior to making landfall.


well we dont have oil anymore it all miraculously disappeared the day static killed it. all those dead and dying animals are your imagination running amok.
Quoting Jeff9641:
I agree with some of the models of 94L being a Hurricane at landfall along the C Gulf Coast. On the news this morning they are saying that they are concerned about OIL cleanup and the drilling process as they may have to evacuate. Also the NHC seems concerned as well when they were speaking about 94L. So downplay 94L if you want this could quite intense prior to making landfall.

Intense as in Tropical Storm. Even a Depression will halt oil clean up. They are using pretty small boats and the seas will get very choppy either way. Skimmers will not be effective. That is why. Just because they have to stop clean up doesnt mean hurricane.
2566. NASA101
Quoting Jeff9641:
I agree with some of the models of 94L being a Hurricane at landfall along the C Gulf Coast. On the news this morning they are saying that they are concerned about OIL cleanup and the drilling process as they may have to evacuate. Also the NHC seems concerned as well when they were speaking about 94L. So downplay 94L if you want this could quite intense prior to making landfall.


Jeff: As usual you are over hyping this :)
2567. Patrap
Quoting Jedkins01:



keep in mind that water vapor satellite indicates only upper air conditions, the lower half of the atmosphere is very moist all across the eastern gulf and Florida peninsula.

Once the upper low pulls across the state it will rapidly push the dry aloft away from the surface low, bringing cold air aloft for instability, while also saturating the mid to upper levels.


Why thanks..for the lesson.

2568. NASA101
Quoting extreme236:
Tropical wave east of the Antilles at 50W looks interesting this morning.


Agreed Sir - I am definitely more interested in this AOI than our much hyped 94L...
where is our new storm w update. (jones-in)
2570. Patrap



Quoting extreme236:
Tropical wave east of the Antilles at 50W looks interesting this morning.


Yup.
2572. MahFL
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Intense as in Tropical Storm. Even a Depression will halt oil clean up. They are using pretty small boats and the seas will get very choppy either way. Skimmers will not be effective. That is why. Just because they have to stop clean up doesnt mean hurricane.


From the latest reports they can't find much oil to skim, it's all "dissapeared from sight".
Quoting Jedkins01:



yeah pretty much dude, slow down with the caps buddy lol


Those were not "average" years. I would pretty much say that 17 storms is significantly above the long term average of 10.
The 6Z HWRF takes it further north of the GFDL, allowing less stregnthening. However, the HWRF has a poleward bias, so a southern track would be more reasonable, if you collect data from the models.
Quoting NASA101:


Jeff: As usual you are over hyping this :)


Gulf storms especially over 90 SST are something to watch because once thing become favorable this could blow up. It happens all the time this time of year. This is not hype it's reality.
2576. Patrap


pfffth..




2579. FLdewey
Quoting Patrap:
Classic Fla post.

Folks dismiss whats WEST of them,,and root for a entity way east of dem.

pfffth..


to be fair I dismiss them East of me too... pfffth. ;-)
Quoting Jeff9641:
I agree with some of the models of 94L being a Hurricane at landfall along the C Gulf Coast. On the news this morning they are saying that they are concerned about OIL cleanup and the drilling process as they may have to evacuate. Also the NHC seems concerned as well when they were speaking about 94L. So downplay 94L if you want this could quite intense prior to making landfall.
I agree with you buddy, I too have a weird feeling about 94L... and I don't get weird feelings about just a disturbance too often...
Quoting MahFL:


From the latest reports they can't find much oil to skim, it's all "dissapeared from sight".

They are still skimming the sea floors in shallower water. They are checking to see if it is sitting on the ocean floor.
2582. scott39
Is there any unfavorable conditions in front of 94L that will keep it from continued developement until landfall?
A Little CFS magic going on this morning.

348hrs (Long Range)

2584. Patrap
2585. divdog
Quoting Jeff9641:


Gulf storms especially over 90 SST are something to watch because once thing become favorable this could blow up. It happens all the time this time of year. This is not hype it's reality.
told ya jeff just calm down a little and quit using words like blow up.. why is the NHC not mentioning any of this. They say ts at best right now. dont over hype things.. let them play out and quit trying to be the guy who says I told you it would happen .. i said it first. this is not a contest that you have to win
2586. shawn26
Is there any chance that 94L could make a U-turn back in to the west coast of Florida if it goes slow enough?
10-AUG-2010 11:49:18 -17.47 167.76 5.1 35.0 VANUATU ISLANDS
10-AUG-2010 09:53:59 -17.69 167.69 5.0 35.0 VANUATU ISLANDS
10-AUG-2010 09:21:57 -17.97 167.40 4.3 35.0 VANUATU ISLANDS
10-AUG-2010 08:02:57 -17.64 167.72 4.8 35.0 VANUATU ISLANDS
10-AUG-2010 06:14:37 -17.44 167.70 5.3 36.8 VANUATU ISLANDS
10-AUG-2010 05:23:46 -17.59 167.98 7.5 35.0 VANUATU ISLANDS
Ok I live in coastal LA and this thing cannot spin up and come here. I will not tolerate it messing up my viewing of the Saints game Thursday night. Who Dat gris gris on it.
well, despite his pitiful look, Colin actually hooked us up with some much needed groundswell.
Colin, you weren't such a bad guy after all!

2590. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest94
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Quoting divdog:
told ya jeff just calm down a little and quit using words like blow up.. why is the NHC not mentioning any of this. They say ts at best right now. dont over hype things.. let them play out and quit trying to be the guy who says I told you it would happen .. i said it first. this is not a contest that you have to win


If you haven't learned by now, Jeff is going to take every scenario and take it to the extreme and towards Fl.
New East Pacific invest


EP 90 2010081012 BEST 0 178N 1078W 25 0 DB
2593. scott39
Quoting Patrap:
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest94
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Whats making 94L "hook" like that Patrap?
Quoting shawn26:
Is there any chance that 94L could make a U-turn back in to the west coast of Florida if it goes slow enough?

More likely to head farther west than east. I am still thinking we are looking for a TS to hit LA/TX border. I expect things to still shift to the west some.
looks like 94L could be developing within the next 24hrs or so. By this point I would assume a small portion of the population that looks at their local weather is aware of this. Hopefully this doesn't become anything significant. It looks like this may pop out of nowhere to the unknowing pubic.
2596. ssmate
Quoting TankHead93:
I agree with you buddy, I too have a weird feeling about 94L... and I don't get weird feelings about just a disturbance too often...
Well I get weird feelings less than you, not less than FL Dewey, but less than most anyone. I agree with you, I think this will blow up. No, not a major but a strong storm. Other than the lack of time, I don't see much to inhibit 94L.
BBL. models seem pretty confident on a LA coast strike for now.
Howdy all...
2599. divdog
Quoting clwstmchasr:


If you haven't learned by now, Jeff is going to take every scenario and take it to the extreme and towards Fl.
well aware
Quoting Patrap:
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest94
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)






Looks like a path similar to Katrina. Not good...
8 to 10 DAY 500MB MEAN
A couple models now have 94L as a CAT 1 at landfall.



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Quoting twhcracker:


well we dont have oil anymore it all miraculously disappeared the day static killed it. all those dead and dying animals are your imagination running amok.


They found lots of subsurface oil and that could be a huge problem from a system upwelling.

The wave is still a wave anyway you put it. It's still got a long way to hurricane status.

One thing that's not going to help it is the slow speed, once it starts drawing all its energy from the Gulf water it will use the energy up very fast in shallow waters with such a slow speed.
2604. quante
Don't forget Katrina, was just a little bitty thing, that ramped up just before it whacked south florida when it went over warm gulf stream, and then we all know what happened after that.

2605. scott39
Are pressures dropping?
Quoting KanKunKid:


North of the equator, when you unplug a drain or flush a toilet, it turns counter-clockwise. South of it the spin is clockwise. If it is sitting on the equator, or close to it, the force isn't as strong. So the further north, the quicker it will spin.


Sooo.... what happens if you flush a toilet at the equator? Does the water flow straight down the drain without spinning?

Although I've never heard of it happening, is it possible for a tornado or water spout to form at the equator?
2607. FLdewey
The over/under for Katrina mentions is 100,000 before 8pm tonight.

Leaning towards the over...
2608. tkeith
My guess is we'll see a plane up today...


NOUS42 KNHC 081500 COR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 08 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 09/1100Z TO 10/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-070 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST IN E. GULF NEAR 26.5N 83.5W AT 10/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
SEF
2609. divdog
Quoting FLdewey:
The over/under for Katrina mentions is 100,000 before 8pm tonight.

Leaning towards the over...
they should all be banned when they even attempt to draw such a comparison.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

They are still skimming the sea floors in shallower water. They are checking to see if it is sitting on the ocean floor.


The Coast Guard is instructing the skimmers to pull at 5 knots....shrimpers know that over 3 knots your gear won't ride on the bottom.
Really amazed at dyanmics of the folks here...its like one extreme or the other.

Me, I just try to look at the facts and put together the best synopsis. I dont try to placate anyone nor do I beat them to an oblivion with back handed comments.

Speak words of kindness...life is good but also life here on earth is but a vapor.
Needs to maintain convection if they are going to upgrade to a TD......looks a bit static considering what we were seeing last night.
Quoting FLdewey:
The over/under for Katrina mentions is 100,000 before 8pm tonight.

Leaning towards the over...


Calm down and just Focus
Quoting FLdewey:
The over/under for Katrina mentions is 100,000 before 8pm tonight.

Leaning towards the over...


Gustav all over again.
2615. FLdewey
Quoting divdog:
they should all be banned when they even attempt to draw such a comparison.

It's like saying every tornado in Kansas is an EF5 because of the Greensburg storm.

Just be calm and watch the formation. We're all prepared right?
2616. FLdewey
Quoting Orcasystems:


Calm down and just Focus

LMAO... oh yeah I'm the one who needs to be calmed. This conference call I'm on is putting me to sleep as it is!
Quoting scott39:
Are pressures dropping?


Yep. I got up this morning and I had a flat tire.
morning fellow wunderbloggers!!!,no doubt in my mind we're watching td6 form sw of kw it should drift north thru out the day steadly organizing and stregthening,winds here in sarasota are east at 10-15 and the breeze is noticably constant(not strong,but constant),expect possible ts conditions along fl's central west coast tonight-overnight it moves nnw about 50 miles offshore and brushes the coastline!!!
Dry air is going to hold this back for now....
Quoting TexasGulf:


Sooo.... what happens if you flush a toilet at the equator? Does the water flow straight down the drain without spinning?

Although I've never heard of it happening, is it possible for a tornado or water spout to form at the equator?


Link
Quoting nola70119:
Dry air is going to hold this back for now....
There is dry air in the GOM? Where?
2623. scott39
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Yep. I got up this morning and I had a flat tire.
You too-- Thats why I was asking?
2624. centex
I thought they forecasted the ULL for S FL, looks like N central FL.
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
There is dry air in the GOM? Where?


West
94L
GOES Visible

GOES Infrared

GOES Water Vapor
Quoting nola70119:


West
I dont forsee that smaller pocket over most of LA to cause issues for the formation in the next 48 hrs as it stands. At least that is what the wator vapor imagery is pointing out.
2628. RJT185
Quoting TexasGulf:


Sooo.... what happens if you flush a toilet at the equator? Does the water flow straight down the drain without spinning?

Although I've never heard of it happening, is it possible for a tornado or water spout to form at the equator?


...The Coriolis effect doesn't bother with flushing toilets, don't heed the uneducated. Aside from laboratory testing the effect for Earth's spin cannot be perceived at that scale.
Quoting nola70119:

West


It's got a moisture buffer around it. Plus the counter clockwise flow is bringing moisture in from the southeast near the Bahamas.
2630. Jax82
Looking at the WV loop on the Floater it appears the upper low is right at Cape Canaveral? And this is supposedly supposed to link up with 94L where? And is it forecasted to move SW when to make that happen?
Good morning! Still cooking here in Houston. We need a bit of rain, my flowers are not looking so good.
Morning everyone.....looks like the models shifted West as expected.
Good Morning/Evening

Can't they distinguish oil sludge on the bottom using its acoustic signature rather than just dragging the bottom. It is much less destructive and the boats can move faster.
If sound is reflected differently by oil sludge compared to bottom mud/silt/sand/rock then it can be detected and mapped much more easily than scarring the bottom with trawler nets.
It can be ground truthed with a few core samples.
Hi Storm:

Miami NWS says that the llc on west coast is closed. Wouldn't that make it a depression?

2635. FLdewey
Agua!

Quoting StormChaser81:

Looks like a crab with both arms out....
Quoting TXnovice:
Good morning! Still cooking here in Houston. We need a bit of rain, my flowers are not looking so good.

You and me both...here in Beaumont haven't had a drop for 2 1/2 weeks...I sure wouldn't mind a little bit of tropical moisture coming this way
Quoting pensacolastorm:


A week at the Sandestin Hilton and here comes a storm. Great.


Hopefully it will go west of you. We were at the Sandestin Hilton for Fay - and there was still a couple who insisted on their beach wedding in the 30 minute clear spot we had in the afternoon!
THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE REGION INCLUDE A SURFACE LOW
JUST TO THE WEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. REGIONAL SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS AND AN ASCAT
PASS AROUND 03Z INDICATE A CLOSED SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...WITH THE SUITE OF MODELS INITIALIZING
PRETTY WELL ON THIS FEATURE. AND RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS IN
OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATING THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.


Miami NWS
Quoting thermoclined:
Looks like a crab with both arms out....


Stone Crab. :-)
NAM GOES Simulated Brightness Temperature

54hrs
The big potential problem with 94L is its timing... yes, it has time to ramp itself up over the Gulf, but on the human side, there is not enough time to properly evacuate if it turns out that some sort of evacuation is needed. And, while I do not expect it to become major, we shouldn't forget what Alex pulled in this very year. The Gulf is infamous as a breeding ground for RI storms. It doesn't require a Labor Day 'Cane or a Camille or a Charley or a K-you-know-what to create a problem. It doesn't even require an Opal, spin up and spin down, though I find it unlikely that 94L would weaken before landfall if it did choose to become something. When the timing is hair-trigger, all it requires to create a problem is one busted intensity forecast because of unexpected RI.

My point is that there is NO reason why 94L couldn't do what Alex did if it organizes quickly. We have seen a number of these little storms explode once they get it together, and they would have become monsters if they hadn't run out of water: Humberto comes to mind, for one. And ironically, prior to its intensification just before landfall, Alex was actually a slow organizer and could have been much worse if it hadn't taken its precious time sorting out competing circulations and so forth. I don't see any evidence of that particular problem with 94L. Everyone on the central Gulf Coast needs to know about the potential of this. If the Curse of Early Season 2010 afflicts it and manages to keep it from organizing, fine, no harm and no foul... but that doesn't seem too likely to happen now.
Quoting zoomiami:
THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE REGION INCLUDE A SURFACE LOW
JUST TO THE WEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. REGIONAL SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS AND AN ASCAT
PASS AROUND 03Z INDICATE A CLOSED SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...WITH THE SUITE OF MODELS INITIALIZING
PRETTY WELL ON THIS FEATURE. AND RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS IN
OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATING THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.


Miami NWS


Still fairly wet in your neck of the woods?
1637, we need it here too. I'm south of Houston and we haven't had rain here in at least that long. We got a lot all at once and now nothing. I wouldn't mind some moisture from the tropics as long as it doesn't bring destruction with it. A nice tropical depression or tropical storm would do the trick!
Quoting zoomiami:
Hi Storm:

Miami NWS says that the llc on west coast is closed. Wouldn't that make it a depression?





if it can sustain the current covection it should be classified td tonight imo
Not much in Pressure falling yet.



Quoting zoomiami:
THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE REGION INCLUDE A SURFACE LOW
JUST TO THE WEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. REGIONAL SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS AND AN ASCAT
PASS AROUND 03Z INDICATE A CLOSED SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...WITH THE SUITE OF MODELS INITIALIZING
PRETTY WELL ON THIS FEATURE. AND RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS IN
OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATING THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.


Miami NWS


All the ingredients are there for a GOM TS. Some models are now calling for hurricane intensity. Id give it a 35% chance of hurricane strength now and then depending on tonight that could either go way up or down. I am now very positive that this will become our next named TS in the GOM. How much it develops in these favorable conditions over the next 30 hrs is going to be interesting.


Here is some surface pressure data at a buoy just west of Key West

Link
From Miami:
DISCUSSION...
THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE REGION INCLUDE A SURFACE LOW
JUST TO THE WEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. REGIONAL SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS AND AN ASCAT
PASS AROUND 03Z INDICATE A CLOSED SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...WITH THE SUITE OF MODELS INITIALIZING
PRETTY WELL ON THIS FEATURE
. AND RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS IN
OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATING THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.


Should be labeled as a TD soon
Quoting TXnovice:
1637, we need it here too. I'm south of Houston and we haven't had rain here in at least that long. We got a lot all at once and now nothing. I wouldn't mind some moisture from the tropics as long as it doesn't bring destruction with it. A nice tropical depression or tropical storm would do the trick!



Quoting BenBIogger:
NAM GOES Simulated Brightness Temperature

54hrs


Nice. Link?
2652. wjdow
do they have toilets on the equator? i don't remember ever seeing one.
When I spent 26 days in South Africa, I did, in fact, observe that the toilets flushed the other way.
Quoting Snowlover123:


Nice. Link?


Link
Latest satellite appearance of 94L through 13:31Z is becoming increasingly impressive. Low level banding is evident and convection continues to expand. Dry air to the NW does not look like it is currently inhibiting development.
If 94 can fill in on that NW side I think it will have a better shot......looks like a little more water vapor there on the last few frames.
2657. SeaMule
I foresee HUGE problems here. People...this is August. Let's all talk about the temperature of the water, and how deep it is....and the fact we have had triple digit heat indexes here in Fairhope Al...for a few weeks...with no relief in sight. That being said...since tropical storms rely on heat...my general feeling....something that nags me...is the fact that we are in the middle of summer....August...and we have a developing system in the GOM.

a recipe for a quick blow up. Now when I say this...am I wishcasting or doomsdaying? NO...

but a few notable storms in August...were...

Camille,
Andrew,
Katrina....

uggh

last year we had hurricane bill one year ago.
2659. tkeith
Does any know if the recon scheduled for today is G4 NOAA or HH?
Quoting StormW:


Bad MoJo.


Good morning StormW. I am sorry for asking, knowing that you have probably been asked before and/or explained before, but why is this bad mojo?

Thank you so much,

Kelley
2661. IKE
2662. FLdewey
Equatorial toilets have special systems installed to make them rotate in the users direction of choice.
Quoting tkeith:
Does any know if the recon scheduled for today is G4 NOAA or HH?


11am I believe.
2664. tacoman
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE WILL FORM IN THE EASTERN GOM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A WATCH WILL BE ISSUES FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHORTLY THERE AFTER...
Looking very cold core.....More like a SubTropical System might develop.



Quoting SeaMule:
I foresee HUGE problems here. People...this is August. Let's all talk about the temperature of the water, and how deep it is....and the fact we have had triple digit heat indexes here in Fairhope Al...for a few weeks...with no relief in sight. That being said...since tropical storms rely on heat...my general feeling....something that nags me...is the fact that we are in the middle of summer....August...and we have a developing system in the GOM.

a recipe for a quick blow up. Now when I say this...am I wishcasting or doomsdaying? NO...

but a few notable storms in August...were...

Camille,
Andrew,
Katrina....

uggh
LOL What a joke
2667. IKE
The hype over 94L on this blog is predictable.
Quoting WxBlogAddict:
When I spent 26 days in South Africa, I did, in fact, observe that the toilets flushed the other way.


I'd like to see that, you know that's not possible. right.

The Coriolis effect doesn't work with small scale things like toilets and sinks.
Do we have a location on 94L, any movement?
Quoting Orcasystems:


Still fairly wet in your neck of the woods?


Very - been raining off and on since Sunday. Everything is beautiful, green, and squishy.
Quoting SeaMule:
I foresee HUGE problems here. People...this is August. Let's all talk about the temperature of the water, and how deep it is....and the fact we have had triple digit heat indexes here in Fairhope Al...for a few weeks...with no relief in sight. That being said...since tropical storms rely on heat...my general feeling....something that nags me...is the fact that we are in the middle of summer....August...and we have a developing system in the GOM.

a recipe for a quick blow up. Now when I say this...am I wishcasting or doomsdaying? NO...

but a few notable storms in August...were...

Camille,
Andrew,
Katrina....

uggh


No upper level anti-cyclone here....
Quoting FLdewey:
Equatorial toilets have special systems installed to make them rotate in the users direction of choice.


LMAO
Quoting IKE:
The hype over 94L on this blog is predictable.


Its a tradition here.
Quoting weatherwart:
Do we have a location on 94L, any movement?


Very slow, I believe....4mph.
2676. OpusDei
Hey all, just wanted to ask a question.

In the last 24 hrs or so, vorticity is better stacked at all levels, shear has dropped, SSTs are high, etc

Q: what is the factor that is not yielding more rapid intensification? outflow aloft? broad circulation having trouble tightening?

thanks!
Quoting BenBIogger:


Link


Thanks. :)
2678. Jax82
2679. pottery
Quoting IKE:
The hype over 94L on this blog is predictable.

Good Morning Ike.
You are being unpopular again?
LOL
I live here in Louisiana an we surely could use some rain!!! Bring it on.
Quoting nola70119:


Very slow, I believe....4mph.
Thanks! Do you happen to know the latest L/L fix or what direction it's moving?
Quoting IKE:
The hype over 94L on this blog is predictable.


That comment is soooo not like you...do you need some more coffee...I will get it for you
2683. OpusDei
Quoting SeaMule:
I foresee HUGE problems here. People...this is August. Let's all talk about the temperature of the water, and how deep it is....and the fact we have had triple digit heat indexes here in Fairhope Al...for a few weeks...with no relief in sight. That being said...since tropical storms rely on heat...my general feeling....something that nags me...is the fact that we are in the middle of summer....August...and we have a developing system in the GOM.

a recipe for a quick blow up. Now when I say this...am I wishcasting or doomsdaying? NO...

but a few notable storms in August...were...

Camille,
Andrew,
Katrina....

uggh


given SSTs were equally high a few weeks ago, what is/was your analysis on Bonnie?
2684. SeaMule
Quoting nola70119:


No upper level anti-cyclone here....


slow moving. plenty of time. I hope it is a joke. but i wouldn't bet the ranch on this NOT blowing up. hype is when something couldn't possibly happen, right? Could this be a major hurricane? ask yourself that question. could it? hmmm,...yes, it could.
Quoting IKE:
The hype over 94L on this blog is predictable.


Slightly ya think...LOL....Ike i just looked at every major model cyclone phase evolution an only one had it becoming anywhere close to warm core phase during its lifetime. The odds of this becoming a warm core system is not likely to occur at all in the next 72hrs. Does not mean tho it won't become a Subtropical system with a name.....
Quoting OpusDei:
Hey all, just wanted to ask a question.

In the last 24 hrs or so, vorticity is better stacked at all levels, shear has dropped, SSTs are high, etc

Q: what is the factor that is not yielding more rapid intensification? outflow aloft? broad circulation having trouble tightening?

thanks!


Killer ULL
So... we have a storm that some models are turning into an 80kt hurricane, and whatever its intensity becomes, it WILL hit land... but it's not going to strike the F state. So let's discuss... toilets? Really?

I don't know about toilets, but I do know that it is a myth that sinks and bathtubs all drain in a cyclonic direction. It depends as much on the curvature of the drain as anything else. Really, if some tornadoes in the northern hemisphere defy Coriolis and spin clockwise, is it really reasonable that a toilet bowl will always be affected?
Quoting OpusDei:


given SSTs were equally high a few weeks ago, what is/was your analysis on Bonnie?


Killer ULL
Ok Storm must be putting together some reall in depth synopsis because he has fallen off the grid.

Im sure whatever he has for us will be very informative...
Quoting OpusDei:
Hey all, just wanted to ask a question.

In the last 24 hrs or so, vorticity is better stacked at all levels, shear has dropped, SSTs are high, etc

Q: what is the factor that is not yielding more rapid intensification? outflow aloft? broad circulation having trouble tightening?

thanks!


One thing is its not even a Tropical Depression yet.

Kinda hard to strengthen when you dont have the inner storm built to actually feed of the water.
2691. jryno
The Weather Channel barely mentioned
94L during the Tropical Update.
2692. FLdewey
Quoting IKE:
The hype over 94L on this blog is predictable.

THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS BLOG BECOMING HYSTERICAL ABOUT A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
2693. divdog
Quoting SeaMule:


slow moving. plenty of time. I hope it is a joke. but i wouldn't bet the ranch on this NOT blowing up. hype is when something couldn't possibly happen, right? Could this be a major hurricane? ask yourself that question. could it? hmmm,...yes, it could.
hmmmmm no it wont. it has to deal with ull and needs to warm up some.
2694. ncstorm
Quoting msgambler:
LOL What a joke


I dont think thats a joke..the blogger is right..conditions are favorable, even the NHC said so..would you call them a joke?
tkeith, it looks like the flight is HH based on the altitude it is supposed to reach. Please correct me if I am wrong (I'm still learning), but someone on the blog explained to me that the G4 is usually used to go to a much higher altitude and this flight (if I'm reading it right) will only go up to 10,000 feet.
2696. tkeith
Anyone know if this is the NOAA G4?

NOUS42 KNHC 091400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT MON 09 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-071

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA - GULF OF MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 10/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 10/1600Z
D. 26.0N 84.0W
E. 10/1730 - 2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 11/0600Z -1200Z
B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE
C. 11/0430Z
D. 27.0N 85.5W
E. 11/0500 -1200Z
Quoting FLdewey:
Equatorial toilets have special systems installed to make them rotate in the users direction of choice.
Actually in the upscale Hotels they have sensors to determine where the user is from so they spin the um-product in the proper direction to clear the bowl.
2698. GBguy88
Quoting Dropsonde:
So... we have a storm that some models are turning into an 80kt hurricane, and whatever its intensity becomes, it WILL hit land... but it's not going to strike the F state. So let's discuss... toilets? Really?

I don't know about toilets, but I do know that it is a myth that sinks and bathtubs all drain in a cyclonic direction. It depends as much on the curvature of the drain as anything else. Really, if some tornadoes in the northern hemisphere defy Coriolis and spin clockwise, is it really reasonable that a toilet bowl will always be affected?
Quoting Dropsonde:
So... we have a storm that some models are turning into an 80kt hurricane, and whatever its intensity becomes, it WILL hit land... but it's not going to strike the F state. So let's discuss... toilets? Really?

I don't know about toilets, but I do know that it is a myth that sinks and bathtubs all drain in a cyclonic direction. It depends as much on the curvature of the drain as anything else. Really, if some tornadoes in the northern hemisphere defy Coriolis and spin clockwise, is it really reasonable that a toilet bowl will always be affected?


It is a myth, yes. Numerous sources say so, look 'em up non-believers ;)
2699. divdog
Quoting jryno:
The Weather Channel barely mentioned
94L during the Tropical Update.
huh ?? i just watched it and that was all they talked about during their 2 minute segment.
2701. Jax82
Quoting jryno:
The Weather Channel barely mentioned
94L during the Tropical Update.


Probably because it's not a depression yet and they dont want to scare viewers with a tropical/subtropical system that hasnt completely formed yet.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Actually in the upscale Hotels they have sensors to determine where the user is from so they spin the um-product in the proper direction to clear the bowl.


In political terms we call that democrats....ok I went there....sorry.
2703. FLdewey
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Actually in the upscale Hotels they have sensors to determine where the user is from so they spin the um-product in the proper direction to clear the bowl.

I'm not sure that's the "right" retina to be scanning. :-o
my amateurish stupid question of the day (i should make this a daily feature):

Can a subtropical system become a major storm (without becoming tropical)?? In other words, can there be a Category 3 or greater subtropical storm.

I will now return to lurking....
After having been headed toward Havana,Cuba...
- - Time and Date - - - - Location
08amEDT 09Aug10 - 26.2N82.3W
02pmEDT 09Aug10 - 26.2N82.6W
08pmEDT 09Aug10 - 25.7N82.7W
02amEDT 10Aug10 - 25.4N82.7W
08amEDT 10Aug10 - 25.5N83.0W
...Invest94L has been heading toward Freeport,Texas
Copy&paste 26.2N82.3W-26.2N82.6W, 26.2N82.6W-25.7N82.7W, 25.7N82.7W-25.4N82.7W, 25.4N82.7W-25.5N83.0W, bix, 25.5N83.0W-29.0n95.5w into the GreatCircleMapper for a looksee.
Quoting Jax82:


Probably because it's not a depression yet and they dont want to scare viewers with a tropical/subtropical system that hasnt completely formed yet.


Jim Cantorey is still in the locker room getting his gear on so they are giving him time to dress up....
60% is 60%
Quoting IKE:
The hype over 94L on this blog is predictable.


Agreed, 94L is in too close proximity to that ULL for me to be worried about anything right now, and I live in AL.

This seems to be the story of 2010, high SSTs, high hype, high frequency of ULLs.
Quoting Dropsonde:
So... we have a storm that some models are turning into an 80kt hurricane, and whatever its intensity becomes, it WILL hit land... but it's not going to strike the F state. So let's discuss... toilets? Really?

I don't know about toilets, but I do know that it is a myth that sinks and bathtubs all drain in a cyclonic direction. It depends as much on the curvature of the drain as anything else. Really, if some tornadoes in the northern hemisphere defy Coriolis and spin clockwise, is it really reasonable that a toilet bowl will always be affected?

I hate to perpetuate this stupid topic but hopefully this information will ultimately kill this discussion. One of my two toilets spins in an anti-cyclonic fashion. There you go. No Coriolis effect in the crapper. Back to the 94L hype...
Quoting nola70119:
60% is 60%


Yogi Berra? Is that you?

I love your AFLAC commercials.....
2711. GBguy88
Quoting jryno:
The Weather Channel barely mentioned
94L during the Tropical Update.


Did they mention the tropics at all? I have a theory that every segment is eventually going to become 3 minutes of Jim Cantore preening himself in a mirror, while the loud blonde gives a play-by-play of every comb-stroke.
2712. FLdewey
Quoting ncstorm:


I dont think thats a joke..the blogger is right..conditions are favorable, even the NHC said so..would you call them a joke?

If the NHC compared this blob to those storms, yes absolutely I would email them and call them a joke. There is a difference between saying conditions for development are favorable and just name dropping storms.
Quoting aspectre:
After having been headed toward Havana,Cuba...
- - Time and Date - - - - Location
08amADT 09Aug10 - 26.2N82.3W
02pmADT 09Aug10 - 26.2N82.6W
08pmADT 09Aug10 - 25.7N82.7W
02amADT 10Aug10 - 25.4N82.7W
08amADT 10Aug10 - 25.5N83.0W
...Invest94L has been heading toward Freeport,Texas
Copy&paste 26.2N82.3W-26.2N82.6W, 26.2N82.6W-25.7N82.7W, 25.7N82.7W-25.4N82.7W, 25.4N82.7W-25.5N83.0W, bix, 25.5N83.0W-29.0n95.5w into the GreatCircleMapper for a looksee.

Thank you very much! That's what I was looking for.
Quoting pipelines:


Agreed, 94L is in too close proximity to that ULL for me to be worried about anything right now, and I live in AL.

This seems to be the story of 2010, high SSTs, high hype, high frequency of ULLs.


Lack of patience, ect.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...A LITTLE LESS THAN 100 MILES WEST OF SOUTHWEST COAST OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND SQUALLS. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
2716. GBguy88
Quoting GBguy88:


Did they mention the tropics at all? I have a theory that every segment is eventually going to become 3 minutes of Jim Cantore preening himself in a mirror, while the loud blonde gives a play-by-play of every comb-stroke.


Actually, what am I talking about? Cantore has no use for a comb.
2717. Squid28
I believe that any TEAL XX designation is a HH, not a G-IV
2719. tkeith
Quoting TXnovice:
tkeith, it looks like the flight is HH based on the altitude it is supposed to reach. Please correct me if I am wrong (I'm still learning), but someone on the blog explained to me that the G4 is usually used to go to a much higher altitude and this flight (if I'm reading it right) will only go up to 10,000 feet.
Thank you TXnovice...I Thought the "Teal" tail #'s meant it was the G4 whichever flies, should help NHC get a handle on this potential Storm.
Quoting tkeith:
Anyone know if this is the NOAA G4?

NOUS42 KNHC 091400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT MON 09 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-071

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA - GULF OF MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 10/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 10/1600Z
D. 26.0N 84.0W
E. 10/1730 - 2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 11/0600Z -1200Z
B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE
C. 11/0430Z
D. 27.0N 85.5W
E. 11/0500 -1200Z


Nope, Teal = Air Force C130
GIV = NOAA 49
Quoting BobinTampa:
my amateurish stupid question of the day (i should make this a daily feature):

Can a subtropical system become a major storm (without becoming tropical)?? In other words, can there be a Category 3 or greater subtropical storm.

I will now return to lurking....


Great question!
2722. IKE



Quoting Jax82:


Probably because it's not a depression yet and they dont want to scare viewers with a tropical/subtropical system that hasnt completely formed yet.
They are too busy doing non-weather stuff. I cannot believe how far they have fallen.
2724. Bonedog
(humor on)

OMG!!! RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!!!

94L is going to turn into a HUGE buzz saw system and destroy the gulf of oi err mexico

93L is going to destroy shipping lanes

african waves are all going to develope and wreck havoc

we will see our first hypercane this season

ITS THE END OF THE WORLD AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH


(humor off)

now that that is out of the way hehehehehe

hope 94 is just a good rain make for everyone and doesnt get its act together except just some good moisture laden clouds. Hopefully it will break the heats incessant grip of the eastern 1/2 of the country.

hoping 93 just gets big enough to be a nice wave maker along the coast for everyone to have fun in.

ok back to lurking.....

BTW hi everyone yup Im still around =)
2725. GetReal
Quoting nola70119:


No upper level anti-cyclone here....



Not yet anyway... Trof split not completed, yet... Give it another 24 hours for the anti-cyclone to develop....
Quoting mossyhead:
They are too busy doing non-weather stuff. I cannot believe how far they have fallen.

It's kind of like this blog at times...especially lately.
2727. hydrus
Quoting BobinTampa:
my amateurish stupid question of the day (i should make this a daily feature):

Can a subtropical system become a major storm (without becoming tropical)?? In other words, can there be a Category 3 or greater subtropical storm.Link

I will now return to lurking....
no....
2728. Buhdog
Low Level clouds on the increase and moving with greater purpose this morning in SWFL!! Winds are increasing as well, feels like a snow day.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Lack of patience, ect.


Its going to be a little while.....but that convection seems to be growing. There is a lot of fuel down there, even with the dry air and sheer to the NW...
2730. FLdewey
Cantore needs to take goober lessons from Oz... those swimming goggles are no longer the dorkiest thing in the field.
2731. tkeith
Thanks NRT, Squid28...HH it is
Quoting Buhdog:
Low Level clouds on the increase and moving with greater purpose this morning in SWFL!! Winds are increasing as well, feels like a snow day.


Interesting....
2733. IKE
MJO....




Well I think there is a big difference between going into "shower curtain shield" full-on freakout mode, and being aware of the possibilities. And it is a possibility, whether the perennial downcasters like it or not, that 94L could become a landfalling hurricane. The ingredients are there. This isn't like Bonnie with the Grim Reaper dogging her all the way to the coast. Yes, it is also a possibility that it won't organize at all, and anything in between, but the forecast of a hurricane landfall is not some crackpot idea with no basis in reality. Nothing wrong with considering the worst case scenario.
Quoting tacoman:
THE LOW IN THE GOM OR TROPICAL STORM BONNIE IE EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NW AND THE SHEAR HAS LET UP SINCE YESTERDAY.THE LOW WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM WITH THE DRY AIR SO ALL IS RIGHT FOR TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE TO FORM...THE SSTs IN THE AREA ARE 85-90 DEGREES...THE SSP HAVE BEEN FALLING SLOWLY SINCE YESTERDAY AND CONTINUES TO DO DO SO...THIS REMINDS ME SO MUCH OF HOW KATRINA DEVELOPED ONLY IT'S A LITTLE EARLIER IN AUGUST..I WILL HAVE NEW INFO ABOUT 4PM CDT AND THE RECON WILL NOT INVESTIGATE TODAY THEY WILL BE OUT THERE WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALL INTERESTS ALONE THE NORTH CENTRAL GOM SHOULD LISTEN FOR FUTURE ADVISORIES...THIS IS SLOWLY BECOMING A HAIRY SITUATION FOR THE NORTHERN GOM...ANYWHERE FROM MORGAN CITY TO BILOXI MISSISSIPPI SHOULD PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION...ILL BE BACK A LITTLE AFTER 4PM AFTER THE NEW INFO COMES IN TO MY OFFICE....


?
Quoting Jax82:


Probably because it's not a depression yet and they dont want to scare viewers with a tropical/subtropical system that hasnt completely formed yet.


They don't do weather anymore. Probably gettin ready to show the feature film of the day.
Quoting Dropsonde:
Well I think there is a big difference between going into "shower curtain shield" full-on freakout mode, and being aware of the possibilities. And it is a possibility, whether the perennial downcasters like it or not, that 94L could become a landfalling hurricane. The ingredients are there. This isn't like Bonnie with the Grim Reaper dogging her all the way to the coast. Yes, it is also a possibility that it won't organize at all, and anything in between, but the forecast of a hurricane landfall is not some crackpot idea with no basis in reality. Nothing wrong with considering the worst case scenario.


+1
Quoting IKE:
The hype over 94L on this blog is predictable.


Experimental FIMY has 94L on a recon mission to find you.


2741. tkeith
Quoting tacoman:
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE I HAVE BONNIE ON THE BRAIN LOL
STORMTOP weather desk???

I thought Hurricat took his place...hmmm
Quoting Dropsonde:
Well I think there is a big difference between going into "shower curtain shield" full-on freakout mode, and being aware of the possibilities. And it is a possibility, whether the perennial downcasters like it or not, that 94L could become a landfalling hurricane. The ingredients are there. This isn't like Bonnie with the Grim Reaper dogging her all the way to the coast. Yes, it is also a possibility that it won't organize at all, and anything in between, but the forecast of a hurricane landfall is not some crackpot idea with no basis in reality. Nothing wrong with considering the worst case scenario.


Don't think anyone has ruled out a hurricane......but lets get to a TD first.
looks like some banding starting on key west radar. Looks like a depression anytime now!
2745. hydrus
Quoting Buhdog:
Low Level clouds on the increase and moving with greater purpose this morning in SWFL!! Winds are increasing as well, feels like a snow day.
This is going to be an interesting system. Some moisture evaporating from the state of Florida(especially the southern half) could give 94L a boost. That plus all the warm water around could produce a tropical storm...Just my harmless opinion. Crow pan is on stand by.
2746. MahFL
Quoting Squid28:
I believe that any TEAL XX designation is a HH, not a G-IV


The clue is SFC to 10,000 ft.
G-IV fly at 45,000 ft.
Quoting nola70119:


Don't think anyone has ruled out a hurricane......but lets get to a TD first.


No Hurricane that i see happening as it is a very cold Core system.....
2749. Ossqss
click to enlarge





Quoting TampaSpin:


No Hurricane that i see happening as it is a very cold Core system.....


Well, this will obviously start off sub-tropical. I'm curious then, if they show it being such a cold-core system that they have the probabilities so high for development.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Well, this will obviously start off sub-tropical. I'm curious then, if they show it being such a cold-core system that they have the probabilities so high for development.
Yep, probably will start off subtropical, but due to the 31C+ SSTs a tropical transition thereafter.
Just because the phase-diagram says this is cold core, we need some recon to confirm that. I've seen the two not always be in sync with each other.
2748. It all depends on what models you look at. The storm-scale ones have it fully tropical. Subtropical is a definite option, but it's not the only option.

As a sidebar, I really love systems like this. The Cape Verde waves are almost like clockwork in their development pattern once the season begins, but things like 94L keep you guessing because there are so many ways they might go.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Well, this will obviously start off sub-tropical. I'm curious then, if they show it being such a cold-core system that they have the probabilities so high for development.


Yeah, I wouldn't be so dismissive so quickly. This went from 10% to 20% to 30% 40% 50% 60% probability. I see a pattern there...
I need to get some errands done while we have good weather. I have a feeling this afternoon is going to get very, very wet.

Later!
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Well, this will obviously start off sub-tropical. I'm curious then, if they show it being such a cold-core system that they have the probabilities so high for development.


This is all very interesting. It's time for a lesson or two perhaps.

Earlier, a flat no came back if a sub-tropical system could be a strong hurricane.

But what about a depression? Could a cold-core system turn into one without going warm first?
2757. pottery
Quoting TampaSpin:


No Hurricane that i see happening as it is a very cold Core system.....

Interesting!
So far, it has been "that" kind of season.

Keeps defying logic and all the signals.
Are things setting-up for an exciting period?
I think so. All the indicators are there.
Quoting pottery:

Interesting!
So far, it has been "that" kind of season.

Keeps defying logic and all the signals.
Are things setting-up for an exciting period?
I think so. All the indicators are there.


Yes, this is spring training. Season starts in 5-6 days....
Quoting TampaSpin:


No Hurricane that i see happening as it is a very cold Core system.....


Microwave Satellite (actual measurements) show a warm core


Gotta run all....have a good day!
93L becoming more organized. It needs to do two things to get classified.

1) Convection needs to persist and cover a larger area.
2) Preferably that the circulation also tuck under the convection.

Quoting KennyNebraska:


This is all very interesting. It's time for a lesson or two perhaps.

Earlier, a flat no came back if a sub-tropical system could be a strong hurricane.

But what about a depression? Could a cold-core system turn into one without going warm first?


Correct me if I'm wrong, folks, but a tropical depression is a warm core system, period...can't call a cold core system a depression
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Microwave Satellite (actual measurements) show a warm core




Interesting. Looks like its fully tropical.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Microwave Satellite (actual measurements) show a warm core


Bingo!
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Microwave Satellite (actual measurements) show a warm core




Que? It only took 94 posts to go from cold to warm?

Now that's what I call RI WU-style!
94l definately doesn't look cold core to me.
Quoting extreme236:
Just because the phase-diagram says this is cold core, we need some recon to confirm that. I've seen the two not always be in sync with each other.
Exactly. I remember looking at a phase diagram on category 5 Celia and it said it was symmetric cold core...sometimes they can be faulty.
2769. Bonedog
subtropical depression
subtropical storm

tropical depression
tropical storm
hurricane
major hurricane
Quoting Floodman:


Correct me if I'm wrong, folks, but a tropical depression is a warm core system, period...can't call a cold core system a depression


They have a separate designation, Subtropical Depression, Subtropical Storm. There is no designation Subtropical Hurricane, thinking is any system that would intensify that much would have to be warm core.
Quoting extreme236:
Just because the phase-diagram says this is cold core, we need some recon to confirm that. I've seen the two not always be in sync with each other.


Per actual measurements, 94L is warm-core.
2772. Drakoen
The biggest problem for 94L appears to be the upper level low to its north. The flow around the high is cutting off the northern outflow of 94L making the system asymmetric.
Thanks Storm.....you are hedging your bets, but I get the flow.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Microwave Satellite (actual measurements) show a warm core




Wow that didn't take long. It was cold core not too long ago
2775. pottery
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Microwave Satellite (actual measurements) show a warm core



So which is it??
Warm or Cold...
Makes a big difference!
Quoting Floodman:


Correct me if I'm wrong, folks, but a tropical depression is a warm core system, period...can't call a cold core system a depression


Flood, good morning, I hope ur doing fine, haven't seen ya around in a few.
sheri
Quoting Drakoen:
The biggest problem for 94L appears to be the upper level low to its north. The flow around the high is cutting off the northern outflow of 94L making the system asymmetric.


That and the dry air.....
Thank you StormW
Quoting pottery:

So which is it??
Warm or Cold...
Makes a big difference!
Luke Warm
2780. Drakoen
Quoting pottery:

So which is it??
Warm or Cold...
Makes a big difference!


It is warm-core according to the AMSU data...more reliable than the model analysis. Actual measurements.
Quoting pottery:

So which is it??
Warm or Cold...
Makes a big difference!


I think it was Tampa showed some kind of image and it showed a cold core back a few post. I think that's what it meant.
sheri
2782. Bonedog
usually if it gets up to hurricane force winds in a subtropical system they sometimes classify it as an extratropical storm

famous ones with hurricane speeds

storm of the century
Braer Storm
Nor'Ida
If 94L went subtropical, it would be designated a subtropical depression or subtropical storm. Cold-core cyclones are just cold-core cyclones, though the wind speeds can indeed get up to hurricane force... just ask anyone who has ever been through a major blizzard! (Probably would have to look in a different blog from this one, LOL.) There is something about the unique physics of subtropical systems that theoretically prevents them from reaching hurricane force.
Quoting from StormW's Blog:
Based on the current wind shear forecast map from the GFS model, the upper level pattern is forecast to improve somewhat, essentially becoming more conducive for development, sometime later today.


Is that PM, or really really PM?
2785. pottery
Thanks Draks!!

LOL Gambler!
Impressive rotation.



And a well-defined circulation.

Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Flood, good morning, I hope ur doing fine, haven't seen ya around in a few.
sheri


I'm good...busy at work is all
Quoting Drakoen:
The biggest problem for 94L appears to be the upper level low to its north. The flow around the high is cutting off the northern outflow of 94L making the system asymmetric.


With very warm 30-31C sea surface temps and minimal shear 10-15kts or so during the next few days i think this has a good shot and a strong ts and a possibly a minimal hurricane.
My worry is that this track seems to be a pattern this year.
Quoting HurricaneHunterGal:


Wow that didn't take long. It was cold core not too long ago


The previous images showing cold core were based on model data, the one I posted is based on actual measurements from the microwave satellites.
At the same time an ULL aloft is not favorable for intensification into a hurricane but i would not rule it out.
The NHC wrote this under the FTP "FIX" suggesting that a ship found winds from the SW at 32 knots and a ship finding a pressure of 1009.9mb. Nrt, you know more of this?

AL, 94, 201008100600, 70, ANAL, P, , , , , 2, , , 1009, 1, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , NHC, SRS, SRS, , , 20, , p, NOAA SHIP NWS0013 RPTD 1009.9 MB
AL, 94, 201008100600, 70, ANAL, I, , , , , 2, 32, 2, , 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , NHC, SRS, SRS, , , 135, , p, SHIP PCHF RPTD SW 32 KT
2794. Drakoen
Quoting StormW:


Drak, can you provide link please?

TIA.


Link
Did someone post the times the HH are supposed to be there? I thought I remembered reading 11 but that could be my mind playing tricks on me. :) Thanks in advance.
Quoting hurricane23:
At the same time an ULL aloft is not favorable for intensification into a hurricane but i would not rule it out.


The ULL seemed to be weakening last night.....
2797. Drakoen
Quoting hurricane23:


With very warm 30-31C sea surface temps and minimal shear 10-15kts or so during the next few days i think this has a good shot and a strong ts and a possibly a minimal hurricane.


Shear is 5-10 knots over the system right now. I could see this becoming a minimal hurricane as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast.
GFDL/HWRF duo certainly believe conditions aloft will favor steady intensification.
2799. Drakoen
Quoting nola70119:


The ULL seemed to be weakening last night.....


It is and the models show that it may degenerate into an open upper trough.
Quoting Tropicaddict:
Did someone post the times the HH are supposed to be there? I thought I remembered reading 11 but that could be my mind playing tricks on me. :) Thanks in advance.


They should arrive at the system around 2pm or so. You can always check HERE
2801. Buhdog
Looks like the southern half of FL is about to turn on the shower. Gonna get wetter than anticipated I believe. Here comes the train lil darlin'!
Quoting hurricane23:


They should arrive at the system around 2pm or so. You can always check HERE


Thank you...if only I could read zulu time! :) Thank you so much for translating it!
Updated... 3 Models now have 94L as a Cat 1 at landfall.



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
2804. Drakoen
Shallow Warm-Core

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The NHC wrote this under the FTP "FIX" suggesting that a ship found winds from the SW at 32 knots and a ship finding a pressure of 1009.9mb. Nrt, you know more of this?

AL, 94, 201008100600, 70, ANAL, P, , , , , 2, , , 1009, 1, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , NHC, SRS, SRS, , , 20, , p, NOAA SHIP NWS0013 RPTD 1009.9 MB
AL, 94, 201008100600, 70, ANAL, I, , , , , 2, 32, 2, , 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , NHC, SRS, SRS, , , 135, , p, SHIP PCHF RPTD SW 32 KT


Fix File Foremat

SRS = Stewart
135 = distance from position
Between NOLA and TX
nice steady breeze here in sarasota east at 20mph...
Quoting extreme236:
GFDL/HWRF duo certainly believe conditions aloft will favor steady intensification.
Yup, I'm leaning more towards the GFDL.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Fix File Foremat

SRS = Stewart
135 = distance from position
Thanks!
Looks like COC is near Dry Tortugas. Not much surface level winds in this thing yet and barometric pressure unimpressive. Pulaski Shoal Data Buoy: Wind 15.9kts gust to 17.1, Baro: 29.86 (rising)and the buoy 208 miles west of Ft Meyers: Wind NNW 9.7kts gust to 11.7 baro: 29.85 (rising)
2813. hydrus
Quoting Bonedog:
usually if it gets up to hurricane force winds in a subtropical system they sometimes classify it as an extratropical storm

famous ones with hurricane speeds

storm of the century
Braer Storm
Nor'Ida
There was a monster storm that struck Belgium and other countries that was similar to a giant sub-tropical cyclone.
Going to check for rum and mixer, might have a little party in a few days....if it looks really good, might even go from little umbrellas.
2815. Prgal
Good morning everyone. I have limited knowledge in this subject but it seems that, for now, its been a typical year in terms of tropical system formation. Am I wrong? Is the worse yet to come? Its been relatively quiet...why? TIA!
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yup, I'm leaning more towards the GFDL.

Miami I am just picking on you but you are very consistant in your forecast. Always one cat too strong haha. I say this in a playful manner not attacking you. Just a trend I notice. If you say 94L is cat 1 I am going with TS.
Recon should find a tropical depression.
2819. Drakoen
2820. FLdewey
Now is the time to check supplies and the ever critical beer fridge.
StormW - thanks for the update. I think you're dead on!
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Miami I am just picking on you but you are very consistant in your forecast. Always one cat too strong haha. I say this in a playful manner not attacking you. Just a trend I notice. If you say 94L is cat 1 I am going with TS.
LOL, we shall see.
Anchorage Daily News

Levi may run for office on reality TV,

Read more: http://www.adn.com/2010/08/09/1402663/levi-may-run-for-office-on-reality.html#ixzz0wDMz00e1

heh heh heh
Quoting Prgal:
Good morning everyone. I have limited knowledge in this subject but it seems that, for now, its been a typical year in terms of tropical system formation. Am I wrong? Is the worse yet to come? Its been relatively quiet...why? TIA!


Regular season starts next week....
If there is one thing I have noticed about Miami's forecasting it is that each time he is a category too high, the conditions were in place for him to be right. This season is making everyone scratch their heads right now.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL, we shall see.
2826. Drakoen
Satellite imagery animation reveals the center just north of the convective mass.
New EPAC invest

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep902010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008101315
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
Quoting extreme236:
Recon should find a tropical depression.


Looking better, WV banding around a bit. Who knows, maybe Danielle after all....
Quoting JRnOldsmar:


Link

Thanks. Much easier just to post a link.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Well, this will obviously start off sub-tropical. I'm curious then, if they show it being such a cold-core system that they have the probabilities so high for development.

The say 60% chance of becoming a tropical OR subtropical system. Though by the time it spends 3 days over the NE gulf I expect it will be purely tropical.
Good morning all,

I have been lurking. Not much to say, but still following 93 and 94
Quoting Goldenblack:
If there is one thing I have noticed about Miami's forecasting it is that each time he is a category too high, the conditions were in place for him to be right. This season is making everyone scratch their heads right now.

You said it, 2010 has been a handful so far, but a challenge is always good.
2832. Prgal
Quoting nola70119:


Regular season starts next week....


Thank you for answering...Hmm, I respectfully disagree. The season started on June. Maybe you meant peak season because it starts in a few days. If the numbers are so high the storms should have started earlier in the season and so far its been kind of normal.
Quoting nola70119:


Looking better, WV banding around a bit. Who knows, maybe this will be Danielle after all....will be staying tuned.
Quoting Buhdog:
Looks like the southern half of FL is about to turn on the shower. Gonna get wetter than anticipated I believe. Here comes the train lil darlin'!


Sure is. There is a rather healthy circulation developing in Central PBC.
Quoting Prgal:


Thank you for answering...Hmm, I respectfully disagree. The season started on June. Maybe you meant peak season because it starts in a few days. If the numbers are so high the storms should have started earlier in the season and so far its been kind of normal.


This is Spring Training.....wait till we see a Cat 4.
Area east of the Antilles could be our next invest if it persists. I believe it is the same wave we were tracking a few days ago that appeared impressive.
I see the circulation of 94L near 25.7N 83.2W.
Everybody wins from a challenge, we learn something from each confusing season (even if we get an indention in our heads from banging on desk..lol)

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
You said it, 2010 has been a handful so far, but a challenge is always good.
Still fairly broad isn't it Drak, MH09?

Quoting Drakoen:
Satellite imagery animation reveals the center just north of the convective mass.
2840. Drakoen
If only 93L would develop more convection it would be a tropical depression already.
2841. Prgal
Quoting nola70119:


This is Spring Training.....wait till we see a Cat 4.


Yeah, but having a Cat 4 doesn't mean its an active season, right? I guess we need a high number of systems forming...not sure tho.
Looks like you are right on top of it, does seem there is something afoot

Quoting extreme236:
Area east of the Antilles could be our next invest if it persists. I believe it is the same wave we were tracking a few days ago that appeared impressive.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I see the circulation of 94L near 25.7N 83.2W.


Miami... I see the model concensus but do YOU think there is a chance that 94 could track further west over toward the TX/LA line.. (I guess in weather ANYTHING is possible but I am still such a novice at reading this stuff...)
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Anchorage Daily News

Levi may run for office on reality TV,

Read more: http://www.adn.com/2010/08/09/1402663/levi-may-run-for-office-on-reality.html#ixzz0wDMz00e1

heh heh heh


oh my. that's so funny. i seriously thought you were talking about our WU Levi32. that would be neat, but the playboy Levi, not so much! LOL!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting extreme236:
Area east of the Antilles could be our next invest if it persists. I believe it is the same wave we were tracking a few days ago that appeared impressive.
It needs to pick up some latitude, but the feature looks pretty impressive. MIMIC-TPW reveals some cyclonic curvature.



Quoting Drakoen:
If only 93L would develop more convection it would be a tropical depression already.


Agreed. It looks slightly more impressive than yesterday.
2847. Prgal
And Nola, thank you for answering!!!! Sometimes I ask questions and made comments and nobody answers them :-D
Quoting nola70119:


what would happen if the NHC were to classify 93L and 94L at the same update time? Which wave would be named first?
Quoting Prgal:


Yeah, but having a Cat 4 doesn't mean its an active season, right? I guess we need a high number of systems forming...not sure tho.


Ask Storm, I am not an expert. Just saying that all signs are for next week to be quite interesting.
2850. Drakoen
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I see the circulation of 94L near 25.7N 83.2W.


Yup
2852. pottery
Quoting extreme236:
Area east of the Antilles could be our next invest if it persists. I believe it is the same wave we were tracking a few days ago that appeared impressive.

In any case, it will bring more rains to Trinidad, which is now experiencing floods and landslides since last week.
Shelters are open, and some communities have been badly affected and evacuated.
Quoting HarleyStormDude52:


Miami... I see the model concensus but do YOU think there is a chance that 94 could track further west over toward the TX/LA line.. (I guess in weather ANYTHING is possible but I am still such a novice at reading this stuff...)
I'm thinking a little bit to the left of the consensus, more towards the Texas/Louisiana line.
I know I am not Miami, but I have been seeing from the Tampa NWS office that troughing is expected to move back in....wouldn't allow the westward movement that you all could use (a weak system with some rain and drought relief). However, if that were to happen, I don't think the system would be much of a blessing, it would be stronger

Quoting HarleyStormDude52:


Miami... I see the model concensus but do YOU think there is a chance that 94 could track further west over toward the TX/LA line.. (I guess in weather ANYTHING is possible but I am still such a novice at reading this stuff...)
Quoting BTRWeather:


what would happen if the NHC were to classify 93L and 94L at the same update time? Which wave would be named first?


Tie goes to the runner....I am guessing NOLA gets Danielle, we have a think with the girl storms- Betsy, Camille, Katrina.
2856. Prgal
Quoting nola70119:


Ask Storm, I am not an expert. Just saying that all signs are for next week to be quite interesting.


Ok, thanks! I am not an expert either. That's why I have so many questions running around in my head.
OT, but not as far off as Levi Johnson.

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Link
Quoting Orcasystems:
Updated... 3 Models now have 94L as a Cat 1 at landfall.



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI



Looks like a bit of shift in the track. more west?
Quoting Goldenblack:
Still fairly broad isn't it Drak, MH09?

Not really, slowly getting better defined and consolidated...we will likely have a tropical depression later today.
Quoting Drakoen:
Satellite imagery animation reveals the center just north of the convective mass.




looks like the convections starting to try and wrap around the center,with new convection forming,sticking w/my forecast td6 tonight,ts danielle tomorrow,tonight moving north and tomorrow nnw,expect possible ts conditions along fl's sw coastline tonight and overnight imo
Good morning every body

the tropical wave on the 50W remind me the 22th September 1963...

One day before the nhc initializes the TD6...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Edith_%281963%29
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm thinking a little bit to the left of the consensus, more towards the Texas/Louisiana line.


Depends on the high, if it stays further west, Louisiana, if east, Texas.....right now it is further west.
So here is one factor that will cause the initial strengthening of 94L to be at a slow or moderate pace.

In this image it looks like there is plenty of moisture with 75 dewpoints common. But this is only SURFACE moisture.




Looking at the Skew-T from a baloon launched at Tallahassee, the Red and Green lines diverge strongly above the surface. The diagram has decreasing pressure from bottom to top with the surface at the bottom of the diagram and the stratopshere at the very top of the diagram.

The Red line is the actual air temperature that the balloon found along its way up, and the Green line is the dewpoint along its path up. Where the two lines are far apart, the relatively humidity of the air is low and the air is dry. This dry air (from an upper level low) makes it difficult for a tropical system to sustain strong updrafts and ultimately slows intensification.
Quoting extreme236:
Area east of the Antilles could be our next invest if it persists. I believe it is the same wave we were tracking a few days ago that appeared impressive.


this one is getting really interesting...and plenty of time to develop
Quoting Drakoen:
If only 93L would develop more convection it would be a tropical depression already.
Yup, it has been developing some convection as of late, however environmental conditions aren't optimal...might be a high-latitude system, similar to Danny (2003).
06z DGEX has weakened from last nights 18z DGEX, landfall now as a 994mb system.

2867. Drakoen
Quoting extreme236:
Area east of the Antilles could be our next invest if it persists. I believe it is the same wave we were tracking a few days ago that appeared impressive.


It is looking healthier and there is an upper level high associated with the system. Upper level winds are forecasted to be conducive for development in the Caribbean.
Quoting Prgal:


Yeah, but having a Cat 4 doesn't mean its an active season, right? I guess we need a high number of systems forming...not sure tho.


It does seem rather subjective.

Some of the active/hyperactive lexicon comes just from the ACE... which is not necessarily comparative with quantity of storms per season.

It just depends on how strong and how long they lasted.

Take the 2007 season. 15 storms, 2 cat 5s.

The San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899 (or Hurricane Ivan, '04) basically equalled that season's ACE by itself.
2869. wxman69
Quoting Prgal:
Good morning everyone. I have limited knowledge in this subject but it seems that, for now, its been a typical year in terms of tropical system formation. Am I wrong? Is the worse yet to come? Its been relatively quiet...why? TIA!


You are right.. it's been relatively "normal" but by the numbers, perhaps just a tad above for 1 hurricane and 2 tropical storms. Seasonal prognosticators have high expectations for the peak-- Aug 15th- Oct 15th, which is why the "expected" numbers remain so high for the season. It is not uncommon for La Nina years to feature more active late season months.. OCT-NOV and occasionally later, though this late they rarely threaten land. You bring up an interesting point about the lack of activity, though.. It's not just in the Atlantic, but globally. In fact, we are at a 30 or more year low for global cyclone activity and have been for the past few seasons. The WESTPAC averages 10 storms for the season by now, and they've only had 3.. EASTPAC same deal. It would be interesting to hear some theory behind this.. (Dr. M.. hemm.. hemm. )
WE had the coolest air in NE Dade Fl. in the last 3months last night so there is some definite cool air around this system.
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES DATA AVAILABLE *
* OHC DATA AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL942010 08/10/10 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 34 40 45 47 51 52 55 54
V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 34 40 45 38 31 28 27 27
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 28 29 33 36 39 35 30 28 27 27

SHEAR (KT) 17 9 5 6 12 13 13 12 13 11 9 11 4
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 0 2 0 -1 1 -2 0 1 -1
SHEAR DIR 3 69 115 64 83 125 84 101 66 101 86 215 200
SST (C) 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.7 31.1 31.3 31.3 30.4 29.0 27.4 26.5
POT. INT. (KT) 169 171 171 171 171 171 171 170 170 170 150 127 116
ADJ. POT. INT. 152 158 159 160 160 162 167 170 167 148 124 105 95
200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -50.9 -51.0 -50.5 -50.6 -50.4 -50.7 -50.5 -51.0
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 10 12 9 15 9 17 9 14 7
700-500 MB RH 57 61 61 54 57 57 58 56 54 52 56 58 59
GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 10 8 8 8 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -20 -4 -8 -25 -24 -29 -40 -43 -78 -31 -15 -60 -60
200 MB DIV -11 -1 -17 -12 0 -4 -3 -15 -4 2 9 -2 18
LAND (KM) 136 193 245 325 356 190 91 62 -25 -144 -269 -410 -499
LAT (DEG N) 25.5 25.8 26.0 26.4 26.7 27.5 28.3 29.1 30.0 31.0 31.9 32.9 33.5
LONG(DEG W) 83.0 83.9 84.7 85.7 86.7 88.6 90.3 91.8 93.1 94.4 95.5 96.5 97.2
STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 9 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 4
HEAT CONTENT 13 31 63 55 36 31 40 9 51 43 0 0 0

I think the current assessment of shear is too high..... But notice how it quickly drops off.
Quoting Goldenblack:
I know I am not Miami, but I have been seeing from the Tampa NWS office that troughing is expected to move back in....wouldn't allow the westward movement that you all could use (a weak system with some rain and drought relief). However, if that were to happen, I don't think the system would be much of a blessing, it would be stronger



Thanks!!! your are correct.. a weak TS would be a beautiful thing for us right now... but no.. I do not want another IKE (even though with the generac Isurvived just fine... others did not)
2873. Prgal
Quoting Cotillion:


It does seem rather subjective.

Some of the active/hyperactive lexicon comes just from the ACE... which is not necessarily comparative with quantity of storms per season.

It just depends on how strong and how long they lasted.

Take the 2007 season. 15 storms, 2 cat 5s.

The San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899 basically equalled that season's ACE by itself.


So its not about the number of storms but the intensity? Maybe I am confusing "an active season" for something similar to 2005. Thanks!
I see the tightening, looking more at the coordinates that you and Drak are looking at, I also see a little northward component (WNW)in the movement, but it is very slow.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not really, slowly getting better defined and consolidated...we will likely have a tropical depression later today.
Claudette scenario still entirely possible, I think i'll blog on that possibility if 94L persists.

94L acquiring that curved band appearance.

2877. Prgal
Quoting wxman69:


You are right.. it's been relatively "normal" but by the numbers, perhaps just a tad above for 1 hurricane and 2 tropical storms. Seasonal prognosticators have high expectations for the peak-- Aug 15th- Oct 15th, which is why the "expected" numbers remain so high for the season. It is not uncommon for La Nina years to feature more active late season months.. OCT-NOV and occasionally later, though this late they rarely threaten land. You bring up an interesting point about the lack of activity, though.. It's not just in the Atlantic, but globally. In fact, we are at a 30 or more year low for global cyclone activity and have been for the past few seasons. The WESTPAC averages 10 storms for the season by now, and they've only had 3.. EASTPAC same deal. It would be interesting to hear some theory behind this.. (Dr. M.. hemm.. hemm. )


Thanks! Like I mentioned before, maybe I am comparing this year to 2005. That year looked like an active season and maybe I was expecting something like that. I was thinking that maybe they lowered a bit the numbers because we didn't have a lot of systems during June and July...don't know.
Quoting Prgal:


So its not about the number of storms but the intensity? Maybe I am confusing "an active season" for something similar to 2005. Thanks!


As said, it depends on who you ask.

Some go just for the quantity of storms in relation to climatology (The 10-6-2 figure, in my opinion though, is way outdated). Some say major hurricanes. Or, like earlier referenced, from the ACE.

Or where they hit.
Took a break for work and surprised that Dr. M has not updated yet......Probably trying to figure out whether he is leaning towards TD/TS on 94L vs hurricane potential before landfall later on down the road.
There is going to be a window of opportunity very soon for 94L to vertically stack its thunderstorm convection once it moves slightly farther north. It could get crazy pretty quickly...

2881. pottery
Quoting germemiguel:
Good morning every body

the tropical wave on the 50W remind me the 22th September 1963...

One day before the nhc initializes the TD6...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Edith_%281963%29

1963 was also the year of Flora. Formed at about 10N.
Major damage to the Islands of Trinidad, Tobago, Grenada.
Went on to cause the deaths of 8000 people, if I recall correctly.
2882. Prgal
Quoting Cotillion:


As said, it depends on who you ask.

Some go just for the quantity of storms in relation to climatology (The 10-6-2 figure, in my opinion though, is way outdated). Some say major hurricanes. Or, like earlier referenced, from the ACE.

Or where they hit.


Ok, I get your point...thanks...and I guess you are right. Arrghhh, I wish I could understand weather lol.
2884. Drakoen
93L and 94L look the same to me just at different angles. I can see both of their circulations.
There's a lot of popcorn convection starting in the dry air slot to the NW of 94L. Looks like it will be able to fight off the dry air for the most part as the ULL weakens.
Looking at rgb in motion Gulf loop. What is that South of New Orleans. Looks like the best satellite presentation of the season so far except Alex.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Took a break for work and surprised that Dr. M has not updated yet......Probably trying to figure out whether he is leaning towards TD/TS on 94L vs hurricane potential before landfall later on down the road.



Most likely waiting for recon data, why speculate, ya know?
2888. hydrus
Quoting pottery:

1963 was also the year of Flora. Formed at about 10N.
Major damage to the Islands of Trinidad, Tobago, Grenada.
Went on to cause the deaths of 8000 people, if I recall correctly.
Flora was a nightmare for Haiti and Cuba. I hope the rain eases up for ya.....
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
There's a lot of popcorn convection starting in the dry air slot to the NW of 94L. Looks like it will be able to fight off the dry air for the most part as the ULL weakens.


I saw that too... plus alot of that convection has the potential to feed into 94L, helping growth.
2890. Drakoen
ASCAT pass reveals cyclonic curvature with the wave east of the Lesser Antilles:

INV/94L/XX
MARK
24.52N83.73W
2893. Prgal
Quoting StormW:


To clarify somewhat, what I and some other folks are speaking of as far as an "active" season, WE DO expect the total amount of storms to surpass the avg of 10-6-2, AND rival that of 1995/1998





Thank you Storm! So may I ask something? Are we then up for a ride? I mean, can we expect something like...lets say...tracking 3-5 systems at the same time? Or having a storm with potential for development emerging every 3 days or so?
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



Most likely waiting for recon data, why speculate, ya know?


But Dr. M is "very" good at his analysis.......Can't wait for his take.
I'm just glad Alabama is out of this one. Well, maybe a shower or two which we need. LA and TX though on the other hand?
2897. Prgal
Quoting StormW:
Hey Drak...soon.



I wish I could understand what this means...
2898. hydrus
Quoting StormW:


To clarify somewhat, what I and some other folks are speaking of as far as an "active" season, WE DO expect the total amount of storms to surpass the avg of 10-6-2, AND rival that of 1995/1998



Did I read that right , you expect this year to surpass 1995 as far as the number of storms?
Here at Stennis Space Center we just received this email...

SSC SITE STATUS TUESDAY AUGUST 10, 2010


ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM WILL PROBABLY BE INITIATED SOMETIME TODAY. THIS ADVISORY WILL LIKELY INCLUDE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA, ALABAMA, MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISANA. TRACKING MODELS SHOW LANDFALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE PANHNADLE OF FLORIDA TO ST CHARLES LOUISANA.

THE STORM IS PROJECTED TO BEGIN IMPACING THE GULF COAST WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.


As with any storm, long term forecasts can be highly inaccurate. SSC will continue to actively track this storms’ progress and provide an update if/when appropriate.
Quoting Drakoen:
ASCAT pass reveals cyclonic curvature with the wave east of the Lesser Antilles:



This will be our next invest area as early as today.
2901. pottery
Quoting hydrus:
Flora was a nightmare for Haiti and Cuba. I hope the rain eases up for ya.....

Thanks.
Yeah, Flora was bad for Haiti in particular (so many storms over the years have been bad for them...)
Here it has been a nice morning so far, as the rain has held off.
Looking East, does not look like this sunshine will last though.
2902. Prgal
Quoting StormW:


You betcha!


Ok, got it. So it doesnt need to be "active" as in an early start but "active" as in number of systems...
2904. Drakoen
Quoting StormW:
Hey Drak...soon.



So it would seem
TCFA for 94L





WTNT01 KNGU 101400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN NORFOLK VA//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 101400Z AUG 10//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25.5N 83.0W TO 27.6N 87.2W OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2. A 0315 ZULU ASCAT PASS NORTHWEST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
SHOWS AN AREA OF CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH AN ASSOCIATED
TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 25N 86W TO 27N 89W. CURRENT REGIONAL
MODELS ARE SHOWING SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OF THIS LOW OVER THE
NEXT 24HRS. CURRENTLY THE LOW IS RESIDING UNDER 5 TO 10 KNOTS
OF NORTHERLY SHEAR. THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 85 TO 88 DEGREES FARENHEIT SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE BY 111400Z AUG 2010.//
Actually, as the ULL slides west, it may assist 94L in pulling the deeper convection northward. Judging by this loop, that may happen as soon as six hours. Notice the moisture field surge north over the Florida peninsula.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It needs to pick up some latitude, but the feature looks pretty impressive. MIMIC-TPW reveals some cyclonic curvature.





that area might get mentioned in the TWO.
2909. SLU
Quoting germemiguel:
Good morning every body

the tropical wave on the 50W remind me the 22th September 1963...

One day before the nhc initializes the TD6...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Edith_%281963%29


Edith was a very nasty storm.
will 74L reach subtropical despression status today?
2911. hydrus
Quoting StormW:


No...you didn't...I said surpass the AVERAGE of 10-6-2..and RIVAL 1995
What do you mean by rival?
So guys when do you think 94L will become a TD? this afternoon??
Yes the tropical wave east of the Antilles is the same one we were watching a couple days back. PGI25L's pouch is forecasted to go north of the Lesser Antilles...interesting.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 101515
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT TUE 10 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-072

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA - GULF OF MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 11/1800Z, 12/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0305A CYCLONE
C. 11/1630Z
D. 27.3N 86.5W
E. 11/1730Z TO 12/0000Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 12/0600, 0900, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0405A CYCLONE
C. 12/0500Z
D. 28.7N 89.3W
E. 12/0530Z TO 12/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 3 HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: NOAA IS PLANNING SEVERAL RESEARCH MISSONS
INTO THIS SYSTEM.
A. G-IV NOAA 49 TAKEOFF 11/1730Z 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
B. P-3 NOAA 42 TAKEOFF 11/2000Z 12,000 FT
C. P-3 NOAA 42 TAKEOFF 12/0800Z 12,000 FT

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
2915. Prgal
Quoting StormW:

The MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) is still heading and going to come back out into Octant 1 or 2 of that chart. Then it's all over but the crying.


Ok, can you make that explanation mo*^%on proof? I dont see what you mean. Do you have a link I can read so I can understand better? Thanks.
Good morning, all
2917. hydrus
Quoting SLU:


Edith was a very nasty storm.
That is one of the storms Dave Turner flew into. He said he was not sure they were going to make it out of Edith.
2919. Prgal
And by the way, my last question...what's that on 30,30? An ULL?
2920. Prgal
Quoting StormW:


Correct. There was one season, that started kind of slow, and we wound up with 10 systems being named in a 35 day time period.


Ok, thanks! I have so much to learn!
2906. StormW 11:16 AM EDT on August 10, 2010

Just read your synopsis on 94L; great take...As has been the recent pattern lately (which will change in the future), the fate of 94L appears to be tied to the ULL....Gotta keep a close eye on those water vapor loops.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes the tropical wave east of the Antilles is the same one we were watching a couple days back. PGI25L is forecasted to go north of the Lesser Antilles...interesting.



east coast should begin to keep a close eye on this feature. That may be 95L shortly.
T.C.F.A.
94L

2925. SLU
Quoting pottery:

1963 was also the year of Flora. Formed at about 10N.
Major damage to the Islands of Trinidad, Tobago, Grenada.
Went on to cause the deaths of 8000 people, if I recall correctly.


Two active systems, 93L & 94L in the Atlantic, but a heat wave in Russia seems to be more important to discuss. Why doesn't he just go ahead and rename this site to the Global Warming blog?
2927. Prgal
By the way Storm, I know your bday is coming up soon. If I forget...Happy Birthday in advance!
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes the tropical wave east of the Antilles is the same one we were watching a couple days back. PGI25L is forecasted to go north of the Lesser Antilles...interesting.



Yep.. this one could get interesting too!!!
PSU e-WALL steering suggests that PGI25L go north of the Lesser Antilles rather than into the Caribbean.
2931. pottery
Quoting tropicfreak:


east coast should begin to keep a close eye on this feature. That may be 95L shortly.

The Islands need to watch it as well.
What are the steering forecasts for the area?
I lost my link... thanks.
2005 is a rare instance - that type of activity is probably occurs every 50 or so years.

It generally seems to get bundled in with 1887 and 1933 - being well above average for its period. 1887 had 19 storms, well before any radar or such systems came into being (though, the period had contained a year with the highest AMO readings ever - if they were correct - in 1878. Higher than even 1998 and 2010.)

May have a nadir as well - 1983 was very low, for example in the Atlantic (1977 was the worldwide low). 1914 was the lowest (1-0-0) before you start getting into really unreliable records. Of course, 'recorded' is the key word.

The average for post-1995 is 14-8-4. Any season above that can considered to be above average for this period and well above average in the long term when considering quantity of TCs.
2933. SLU
Quoting hydrus:
That is one of the storms Dave Turner flew into. He said he was not sure they were going to make it out of Edith.


Oh my ..
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes the tropical wave east of the Antilles is the same one we were watching a couple days back. PGI25L's pouch is forecasted to go north of the Lesser Antilles...interesting.



Okay, I'm curious: where did the designation "PGI25L" come from?
2935. Prgal
Quoting StormW:


I don't have anything to post right off hand, however, when the MJO Index shows the MJO in Octants 8, 1 & 2, that's when we see an increase in development. Example...if you look at this one, remember when Alex, Bonnie and TD2 developed (I believe Alex was near June 22-23, AND Bonnie near the same time in Jul.

Compare those dates with the chart:





Ok, I get it. Thanks!
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes the tropical wave east of the Antilles is the same one we were watching a couple days back. PGI25L's pouch is forecasted to go north of the Lesser Antilles...interesting.



but the system is moving entirely to the west??? is there something in the area that can pull this thing so far north???
Just chatted with a fellow on air met at one of our sister stations in NOLA - he thinks if the ULL can separate itself further from 94, this could be an Humberto set up.
NEW BLOG
If I lived along the northern gulf coast, I would watch 94L very carefully. Looking at the extent of the moisture field, SST's and low wind shear, I forecast it to become a strong ts/hurricane by thursday evening...
2940. Drakoen
Lets see if it can hold its convection today:

Quoting Floodman:


Okay, I'm curious: where did the designation "PGI25L" come from?


Naval Postgraduate School Info under NFS PREDICT (2010)
Quoting Prgal:
By the way Storm, I know your bday is coming up soon. If I forget...Happy Birthday in advance!

Mines is tomorrow.
NEW BLOG
2945. Prgal
Quoting DownCaster:



Mines is tomorrow.


Happy Birthday!
2946. wjdow
Quoting ColdInFL:
Two active systems, 93L & 94L in the Atlantic, but a heat wave in Russia seems to be more important to discuss. Why doesn't he just go ahead and rename this site to the Global Warming blog?


it's the Dr's. blog, he writes what he thinks he should. if people don't like his content, they can move on.
Quoting Floodman:


Okay, I'm curious: where did the designation "PGI25L" come from?


Another curious!!!
2948. NASA101
Quoting tatoprweather:


but the system is moving entirely to the west??? is there something in the area that can pull this thing so far north???


Forecast track on these PGIs on that CIMSS Predict websites are aweful - pay no attention...it has PGI25 going West for a while and then takes a 90 deg right hook going North!! WHAT THE...!?
Quoting extreme236:
Area east of the Antilles could be our next invest if it persists. I believe it is the same wave we were tracking a few days ago that appeared impressive.


Yes extreme it had a persistent mid level circulation.
Quoting Chucktown:
Just chatted with a fellow on air met at one of our sister stations in NOLA - he thinks if the ULL can separate itself further from 94, this could be an Humberto set up.


Looks like that happening or the ULL is weakening....water vapor is starting to wrap across the Florida Peninsula.
Another thing to keep in mind that will make it take longer for 94L's winds to ramp us is the lack of a strong pressure gradient.

We saw with Colin very strong winds (50-55mph surface winds) on its northeast side even when the storm itself was fairly weak. This was due to a very strong pressure gradient to its northeast thanks to the Bermuda High.

94L will develop in a region of fairly uniform lower pressure. This means that it will need a much lower pressure relative to Colin to get a similar (50-55mph) wind speed.
93L has one of those pesky ULL to contend with. Don't expect to much out of it.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SQUALLS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION TODAY. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS APPROACHING THE
SYSTEM AND WILL HELP TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
FORMING...AND IF SO...WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST AS EARLY AS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
Regarding Ike...He makes that intense effort every morning to find the one liner in a discussion downplaying any development. Then he highlights it in bold type. That's fine but you must have more weather knowledge than that I hope.
Anyway you depress me every morning. Weather enthusiasts love changeable weather. You should live in California or in the desert. Sometimes I would like something more creative from IKe. I know he means well..but try something different tomorrow. With respect Joe
Reaping the whirlwind