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Outspoken hurricane scientist Ivor van Heerden cut loose by LSU

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:38 PM GMT on April 14, 2009

Louisiana State University (LSU) will not renew the contract of controversial hurricane scientist Ivor van Heerden, according to nola.com . Dr. van Heerden has been stripped of his title as deputy director of the LSU Hurricane Center, and will lose his job in May 2010. The Director of the LSU Hurricane Center, engineering professor Marc Levitan, resigned from that post in protest over the firing of van Heerden. LSU has given no reason why it is removing Dr. van Heerden, but said it was not because of his performance. Van Heerden, who holds a Ph.D. degree in marine sciences from LSU, was one of the most outspoken scientists on the vulnerability of New Orleans before Katrina struck in 2005. He worked extensively with FEMA, the Army Corps of Engineers, and political figures at the local, state, and U.S. Congressional levels to try to improve New Orleans' disaster readiness. In the aftermath of the storm, he provided support for the search and rescue efforts and plugging of the levee breaches, then headed one of the teams assigned to figure out what caused the levees to fail. PBS's NOVA did a nice story on him in 2006, featuring interviews before and after Katrina. He was highly critical of the Army Corps of Engineers and politicians at the local, state, and federal level for allowing the Katrina disaster to happen, and for their abysmal response to the storm's aftermath.

It is no surprise that van Heerden has been fired, as he has also been very critical of the LSU administration. His May 2006 book, The Storm: What went wrong and why during Hurricane Katrina--the inside story from one Louisiana scientist, (see my review), tells of a case in November 2005 after Katrina where two LSU assistant chancellors told him to stop talking to the press, because it was "hurting LSU's quest for federal funding across the board." Van Heerden further remarked:

A balanced view on research is lacking at many universities obsessed with competing for the big brownie points, where upper administrators' egos and boasting rights are more important than solving problems to the benefit of society at large. You would think that our work before, during, and after Katrina might have turned some heads at LSU, but not really. Witness the gag order placed on me by the school during the levee investigation a couple of months later (soon rescinded with apologies)

Van Heerden is a big proponent of building a flood protection system that will protect Louisiana from a Category 5 hurricane. He proposes doing this by restoring wetlands, building armored levees, and installing huge flood gates on Lake Pontchartrain, similar to what the Dutch use to protect their country from the North Sea. I especially like his emphasis on the importance of doing good science. He is not a fan of what politicians and business leaders do with good science:

The science is the easy part. The hard part is overcoming the narrow-mindedness and selfishness of politics and business as usual. For decades the two have undermined plan after plan to restore wetlands, build new ones, and thereby protect people and property. They have played hell with improving the existing levee system. We must do better now, or we can kiss it all good-bye for good. I was not exaggerating in the introduction when I said that politics and business as usual in Louisiana will eventually put everything below Interstate 10 underwater. Science and engineering can save the day, but not if they're censored or manipulated. If that's to be the case, just shelve them and start packing. It's over.

According to an article in The Nation, Dr. van Heerden is scheduled to testify in a trial that begins in federal court on April 20. Judge Stanwood Duval will rule on a claim by six homeowners that the Corps failed to heed environmental laws in building and maintaining the Mississippi River-Gulf Outlet shipping shortcut, which they claim led to the catastrophic flooding of New Orleans during Katrina. A second trial will begin shortly after that--a large class action suit seeking hundreds of millions in damages from the Corps. When Dr. van Heerden was first asked to testify at these trials in spring 2007, LSU's then-president, Sean O'Keefe, told plaintiffs' attorneys that if van Heerden testified against the Corps he would be fired (O'Keefe had served as head of NASA under George W. Bush between 2001 - 2005, and stepped down as LSU chancellor in January 2008). According to van Heerden, the LSU president said "nobody from LSU was going to embarrass the Bush administration or upset the major Republican companies that benefit from Corps of Engineers contracts." LSU has officially blocked Dr. van Heerden from testifying as an "expert witness" in the upcoming trials, but he can still testify as a "fact witness".

Regardless of where he winds up next, I'm sure Van Heerden will continue to voice his valuable views on the science of what is best for Louisiana and New Orleans. In an interview with the Associated Press, Dr. van Heerden said Friday he would appeal the college's decision and was considering legal action. "Before going that route, I hope LSU will recognize the signal they've sent to the world is that academic freedom does not exist at LSU. The folks who are going to lose in this is LSU, not me. I will find a job rather easily. There have already been some offers."

Less politics and better science would go a long ways towards reducing our vulnerability to hurricanes. Ivor van Heerden has been a much-needed critical voice in advocating this, and I applaud his tenacity in calling it as he sees it. Louisiana very much needs Dr. van Heerden's input over the coming decades on how to move ahead to protect the vulnerable coast of the state against the twin threats of hurricanes and rising sea levels. The move by Louisiana's flagship university to silence his voice should concern everyone in the path of the next Katrina.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Shears decreasing throughout the Atlantic except in some areas. Starting to see some blue on the map.
Is she a big story over there Cotillion?
Quoting Patrap:
So much for the BBC Channel 2..


I believe it's from ITV.

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Is she a big story over there Cotillion?


Heh, she's made the rounds on some of the news channels and papers, yes. First picked up on it on Sky News.
palm beach getting a good soaking what about dade and broward!!! we got seabreaze too!!!.
'Course, mostly on the news is about the government continually screwing up.

We can't wait to be rid of this hypocritical, tax-heavy administration either...
Not only is today Tax / Tea-Bag Day....but also the 97th anniversary of the Titanic sinking.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin Number NINE
Cyclonic Storm Bijli (BOB01-2009)
23:30 PM IST April 15 2009
=====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Bijli over central & adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved further northwards and lay centered near 16.0N 86.5E, or about 400 kms east-southeast of Visakhapatnam, 830 kms northwest of Port Blair, and 900 kms west-southwest of Pathein, Myanmar. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a north-northwesterly direction for some more time and recurve thereafter.

Under its influence, rain/thundershower at many places with isolated heavy falls is likely over coastal area of north Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and West Bengal.

Squally winds speed reaching 50-60 km/h gusting to 70 km/h are likely along and off north Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and West Bengal coasts during next 48 hours commencing from today morning. Sea condition will be rough to very rough.

Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off these coasts.
The sea brezze is coming on but wheres da wet stuff.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Not only is today Tax / Tea-Bag Day....but also the 97th anniversary of the Titanic sinking.


As long as everyone keeps their Celine Dion impressions to themselves.... ;)
498 -- Amazing!

Waves to cot...
Quoting Cotillion:


As long as everyone keeps their Celine Dion impressions to themselves.... ;)


HAH! I promise.
Quoting ILwatcher:
498 -- Amazing!

Waves to cot...


IL!

Long time no see!

Storms seem to be getting worse now in the south, especially the south east. Picking up on a gust near 60mph in London. Link

Most of the lightning seems concentrated there too.
Quoting Cotillion:


As long as everyone keeps their Celine Dion impressions to themselves.... ;)


lol Cotillion..would not even think it!
Quoting Cotillion:


IL!

Long time no see!

Just coming out from my long winter's hibernation. It still feels like winter here, I may have to go back and sleep some more, lol.
Quoting ILwatcher:

Just coming out from my long winter's hibernation. It still feels like winter here, I may have to go back and sleep some more, lol.


Speaking of hibernation, aren't these just the cutest creatures ever? Link

the two tone talk the twon tone talk
Quoting G35Wayne:
the two tone talk the twon tone talk


What?
Quoting G35Wayne:
the two tone talk the twon tone talk


Ditto?

2-0
Quoting G35Wayne:
the two tone talk the twon tone talk
By me. What???

3-0

penguins 2-0
Never mind : )
Removed for your viewing pleasure.
Ossqss - Too funny - and somewhat amazing.

Quiet night tonight, particularly after the hail and such of the last coupla nights.

Picture perfect day here. Lots of sun, slight breeze. Flower gardens are providing color and a sweet smell. Tourist seem to be enjoying themselves.
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Ossqss - Too funny - and somewhat amazing.

Quiet night tonight, particularly after the hail and such of the last coupla nights.

Picture perfect day here. Lots of sun, slight breeze. Flower gardens are providing color and a sweet smell. Tourist seem to be enjoying themselves.


Gettin down right cold here, mid 50's for a low. Thin blood makes me shiver, but keeps the skeeters down. Worked out my hand held bug zapper earlier. Definite hur kit must have. Be well
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin Number TEN
Cyclonic Storm Bijli (BOB01-2009)
2:30 AM IST April 16 2009
=====================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Bijli over central and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lays centered near 16.0N 86.5E, or about 400 kms east-southeast of Visakhapatnam, 830 kms northwest of Port Blair, and 900 kms west-southwest of Pathein, Myanmar.

Satellite imagery shows curved band pattern of the system. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 15.0N to 19.0N and west of 90.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -60C. The intensity of the system is T2.5, RPT=2.5. The forecast intensity during the next 24 hours is T3.0.

Maximum 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 40 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 996 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough to high around the system's center.

Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is between 5 to 10 knots. 24 hours shear tendency is negative around the system. The system lies close to south of the upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 18.0N.

Considering all the above, the system is likely to intensify further and move in a north-northwesterly direction for some more time and recurve thereafter.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
Current: 16.0N 86.5E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 18.5N 86.0E - 45-50 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 20.5N 88.0E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS: 22.5N 91.5E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
Nightall

For those who would like some interesting easy reading.

Link

4-1

Kathy Anderson / The Times-Picayune
Ivor van Heerden is pictured here in May 2006 standing near the 17th Street levee break.

Bob Marshall: LSU ouster of Ivor van Heerden removes most honest appraiser of city's levee failures

Posted by Bob Marshall, Columnist, The Times-Picayune April 15, 2009 6:54AM


Ugly doesn't change, even when you see it coming. Neither does stupid.

I'm talking about the decision by LSU to fire Ivor van Heerden, the head of the LSU Hurricane Center who earned world-wide renown for his work before and after Hurricane Katrina. This move had been rumored and threatened almost since van Heerden began his post-storm work, but it was no less repulsive for its inevitability.

As someone who covered that story, I always thought the state should be rewarding van Heerden, not chasing him away, because metro area residents -- indeed, citizens of any U.S. community currently relying on federal levees to keep them safe -- owe Van Heerden a huge debt.
So do we have a Tropical Wave? :)
It's only April Naples. Too early to be talking tropics. goodnight!
hey pat do you want to joine me on yahoo IM???



david_thomas4000
Subject: Cyclonic storm Bijli over west central Bay of Bengal

Cyclone alert remain in effect


At 0:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Bijli over west central Bay of Bengal moved northwestward and lays centered at 16.5N 86.0E, or about 330 kms east-southeast of Visakhapatnam, 450 kms southwest of Paradip, and 750 kms southwest of Khepupara, Bandladesh.

Under its influence, rain/thundershower at many places with isolated heavy falls is likely over coastal area of north Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and West Bengal during next 48 hours.

Gale force winds speed reaching 60-70 km/h gusting to 80 km/h are likely along and off north Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and West Bengal coasts during next 48 hours. Sea condition will be very rough to high. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off these coasts.

Satellite imagery shows curved band pattern of the system. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 15.0N to 19.0N and west of 90.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -60C. The Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.5, RPT=2.5. The forecast intensity during the next 24 hours is T3.0.

Maximum 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 40 knots with a minimum central pressure of 996 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough to high around the system's center.

Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is between 5 to 10 knots. 24 hour shear tendency is negative around the system. The system lies close to south of the upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 18.0N.

Considering all the above, the system is likely to intensify further and move in a north-northwesterly direction for some more time and recurve thereafter.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
Current: 16.5N 86.0E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 19.0N 86.0E - 45-50 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 21.0N 88.5E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS: 22.0N 91.5E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin Number TWELVE
Cyclonic Storm Bijli (BOB01-2009)
8:30 AM IST April 16 2009
=====================================

Subject: Cyclonic Storm Bijli over west central Bay of Bengal:

Cyclone warning (northern Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, and west Bengal)

At 3:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Bijli over west central Bay of Bengal moved northwards and lay centered near 17.0N 86.0E, about 300 kms east-southeast of Visakhapatnam, 380 kms south-southwest of Paradip and 700 kms southwest of Khepupara, Bangladesh.

Under its influence, rain/thundershower at many places with isolated heavy falls is likely over coastal area of north Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and West Bengal during next 48 hours.

Gale force winds speed reaching 60-70 km/h gusting to 80 km/h are likely along and off north Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and West Bengal coasts during next 48 hours. Sea condition will be very rough to high.

Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off these coasts.

Satellite imagery shows curved band pattern of the system. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 15.0N to 19.0N and west of 90.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -60C. The Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.5, RPT=2.5. The forecast intensity during the next 24 hours is T3.0.

Maximum 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 40 knots with a minimum central pressure of 996 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough to high around the system's center.

Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is between 5 to 10 knots. 24 hours shear tendency is negative around the system. The system lies close to south of the upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 18.0N.

Considering all the above, the system is likely to intensify further and move in a north-northwestly direction for some more time and recurve thereafter.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
Current: 17.0N 86.0E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 19.5N 86.5E - 45-50 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 21.5N 90.0E - 45-50 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
The trail was kind of poorly done how can a cyclone reach category seven when there isn't even a six the hurricane samon is already in an area in the middle of the Atlantic right around the area where cat fives cat exist (there's a cut off latitude where cat 5 can no longer form Samon is probably at or near this latitude and will get beyond it soon also since it's an S name this indicates a storm towards the end of the season like October where formation in the Atlantic is rare and the forecast cone has it going straight for new york city hurricanes would curve up to NY

sorry when there's a movie I watch that mentions cyclones I always get upset about how they get it wrong
44*F in Macon, Ga this morning, is this Spring?
I feel that there is a time and a place for politics and those in politics feel that they rule the country. It's like politics knows no boundries, yet they expect others to observe boundries.

You look at the brilliant minds of ages past and how they were treated by the heads of state and by the church. Those brilliant minds had so much to offer society, if politics would just shut up and listen.

This good Dr. who is trying to give to society what he has been blessed with to give, is being silenced by politics. If the political powers would be would take a plentiful dose of humility, they would realize that he has valuable information for everybody as a whole.

Politics cannot see the nose on it's face. It cannot see past today and into next year. It's vision is on the here and now. "This is what I want and I don't care what has to be sacrificed to get it." I wish for once, that politics would just take the blinders off and realize that others are looking at the big picture and can't make the changes we need as a society w/o the help of politics. It is help that we won't get as long as politics keeps those blasted blinders on.

just my uneducated thought.
Keep on, Keepin' on Doc.
Morning all. Excellent post Dr. M!
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings

Hey, Hey, Hey... none, not a one, nada, (warning) this morning.

Morning folks
More heavy rain and thunderstorms on the way for the south west here. Lookin' to get pretty drenched down there.

Up here though, cloudy and warm. That said, do like a good thunderstorm.. deprived. :(

28 deg this morning just outside of boston,those cold mornings just don't want to go away
Earthquake activity in both S.E. Alaska 4.8 and off the Oregon coast a 4.7 today. Hoping for a good rain here in the Houston area.
great ISS viewings coming up!!!,one tomorrow morning and one sunday morning....these will be slightly brighter than the last time(2 weeks ago) w/ magnatudes of -3.9 and -4 !!!!!!
Good Morning folks. Just stopping by for a minute to complain about the cool temps for this time of year? 51 yesterday morning here in Panama City Beach and 53 this morning. I was in my pool by this time last year but it's temp has fallen back into the upper 60s. The next seven days don't look they will help much either. I'm ready for Summer!!
..oh,and what a perfect morning locally here in swfl!!!!!!,actually left the ac off all night......
looks like another decent cold front dropping the temps/humidity the begining of next week for us in FL....
Wouldn't think Florida will get too many more fronts cooling you off.
No cyclones in EATL present or near future forecast (GFS)to move WEST :) http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/index.html
Shear map and tropical model runs on the same page!?

We are close...

It is 45 days, 10 hours, 57 minutes and 20 seconds until Monday, June 1, 2009 at 12:00:01 AM (Praia time).
happy weather giant storm system in the s pacific costa rica going to get a large swell pavonnes short video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4D9kQxV9EcY
Rally scheduled today to protest firing Ivor van Heerden


By Joy Lukachick

Published: Wednesday, April 15, 2009

In response to the University firing the coastal scientist and research professor Ivor van Heerden, Levees.org announced a rally to protest the University's decision at LSU's Heath Sciences Center in New Orleans.

Levees.org, founded by Sandy Rosenthal a few months after Hurricane Katrina, is hosting the protest tomorrow at 10 a.m.

"This is much bigger than Ivor van Heerden, its about the citizens," Rosenthal said.

Levees.org began after the hurricane to educate the public that New Orleans was flooded not by a natural disaster but by engineering failure, Rosenthal said.

In addition to the protest, the group posted a petition to Chancellor Michael Martin for citizens to sign and voice their disagreement.

"This is a huge loss for the citizens of south Louisiana and indeed the entire nation, and I request that you reconsider those decisions," the petition read.
Levees.org

Rally to protest downsizing of LSU Hurricane Center
Wednesday, April 15th, 2009

In response to public outrage over Louisiana State Universitys decision to fire hurricane expert Ivor van Heerden, Levees.org is holding a rally at LSU's Health Sciences Center in downtown New Orleans.

10am Thursday April 16
In front of the Ische Library at LSU Health Science Center
433 Bolivar Street - one half block off Tulane Avenue

Three blocks uptown side of Claiborne Ave.

Dr. van Heerden led a team of independent geotechnical engineers who investigated the levee failures in metro New Orleans after Katrina. Van Heerden was openly critical about the design and construction mistakes by the US Army Corps of Engineers. Observers believe that has caused LSU officials to worry that federal funding was put in jeopardy.

For more on LSU Chancellor Michael Martins decision to downsize the Hurricane Center and fire key personnel, see this piece in todays Times Picayune by staff writer Bob Marshall.
Thats a shame.

No money for protecting our cities. Obama spent it on the bailing out lenders.

Wait, we can print more!

I hope Prof van Heerden speaks out on what really happened. LSU's loss. He is a great man.
How is the funding for LSU dervied? State taxes, some federal dollars, and some private grants? Is the state budget decided by the governor or legislature in Louisiana? Is it done by line item? The reason I ask is, that if elected officials know that they will not be voted into office again, would that change some things, I would hope so. A very, very cynical friend of mine is fond of saying 'We get the government we vote for, so it's the government we deserve!.
Quoting ConvectPUG:
Thats a shame.

No money for protecting our cities. Obama spent it on the bailing out lenders.

Wait, we can print more!

I hope Prof van Heerden speaks out on what really happened. LSU's loss. He is a great man.


Remember he's not the one who caused all of this. He's trying to fix a big mistake Bush made.
New Orleans VA's hospital plans going before public tonight


by Bill Barrow, The Times-Picayune
Thursday April 16, 2009, 8:14 AM

Amid growing questions about proposed hospital complexes for lower Mid-City, the public will have its first opportunity tonight to speak directly to U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs officials about preliminary designs for its portion of the project.

The meeting, scheduled for 6:30 to 9 p.m. at Grace Episcopal Church, 3700 Canal St., comes as some individuals and organizations representing varying interests are asking government officials to reconsider -- or at least slow down -- their plans for the adjoining federal hospital and state teaching medical center in a historic but blighted neighborhood.


******************************************************

(P.S. I will be in attendance there tonight and hopefully will have a chance to Speak.)
Quoting stillwaiting:
looks like another decent cold front dropping the temps/humidity the begining of next week for us in FL....
And watch for a repeat of the weather we saw Monday and Tuesday... Each model run is bringing the low further south, meaning a possible additional shot of severe weather for north and cetral florida. Hope we at least get some good rain and cool temps fromt this front.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin Number SIXTEEN
Cyclonic Storm Bijli (BOB01-2009)
20:30 PM IST April 16 2009
=====================================

Subject: Cyclonic Storm Bijli over west central And adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal

YELLOW MESSAGE - Orissa, west Bengal


At 15:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Bijli over west-central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centered near 18.5N 86.5E, or about 200 kms south of Paradip,380 kms south-southwest of Digha and 550 kms southwest of Khepupara, Bangladesh. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a north-northeasterly direction initially and then in a northeasterly direction towards Bangladesh coast.

Under its influence, rain/thundershower at many places with isolated heavy falls is likely over coastal area of Orissa and West Bengal during next 36 hours.

Gale force winds speed reaching 60-70 km/h gusting to 80 km/h are likely along and off Orissa coast during next 24 hours and West Bengal coast during next 36 hours. Sea
condition will be very rough to high.

Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off these coasts.
Pat, thanks for the comments on the rally.

554. ConvectPUG 11:46 AM EDT on April 16, 2009
Thats a shame.

No money for protecting our cities. Obama spent it on the bailing out lenders.


Not. The bailout happened in SEPTEMBER, when Bush, the president at that time, pushed heavily for its passage. Republicans refused to support it unless it passed without the kinds of checks and balances the Democrats wanted to include.

But this is all beside the point. Somebody pointed out yesterday that the levees in NOLA didn't get into bad shape during one government's tenure. Let's not oversimplify the politics of this situation. Someone else said it well when they talked about personal corporate benefit and business as usual in this instance being major contributors to NOLA's problems during Katrina.
I have devised a Statistical and Mathmatical formula to project this years tropical season for development. Its at the bottom of this link on my WebSite.

It is on going with nothing finialized to my thoughts and not much put into analyzing yet.

http://tampaspinsweather.webs.com/weathergraphicsandmaps.htm
possible sub-tropical low off NC coast????
Dodge City in center of radar




Looking north Dodge City to North Platte


Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Warning #7 (1500z 15APR)
==========================================
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone ONE-B (BIJLI) located at 18.4N 86.6E or 265 NM south-southwest of Kolkata [Calcutta), India has sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north-northwest at 11 knots.

The initial position is based on animated visible satellite imagery and a 0800z TRMM microwave pass with a high degree of confidence. The initial intensity remains at 45 knots based on the Dvorak intensity estimates from PGTW. Upper level analysis indicates the system is tracking along the northwest periphery of a subtropcial ridge centered over Myanmar. The ridge is expected to gradually move south, enhancing a more northeasterly progression for TC Bilji. There is no significant change to previous forecast philosophy the system will intensify slightly during the next 36 hours as it continues to track over warm sea surface temperature and under low vertical wind shear before it makes landfall then dissipate near the Bangladesh/Mynamar border. The majority of available numeric models are in agreement with this forecast.
565. beell
1:15PM CDT
Quoting stillwaiting:
possible sub-tropical low off NC coast????


Vorticity is high in the area but, Shear is also high. It would be in the Upper levels only.
567. beell


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0482
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS TX SOUTH-PLAINS REGION...TX PANHANDLE...OK
PANHANDLE.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 161841Z - 161945Z

SFC-BASED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING BETWEEN LBB-EVW...WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION POSSIBLE NWD THROUGH CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND SWWD TOWARD
TX/NM BORDER AREA E HOB. DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM ACTIVITY OVER THIS AREA THROUGH REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING.

SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES DRYLINE BULGE OVER THIS REGION...WITH
DRYLINE ARCHING THROUGH ERN DALLAM...ERN CASTRO...HALE...WRN LUBBOCK
COUNTIES...THEN SWD TO NEAR MAF. MESOANALYSIS...RADAR REFLECTIVITIES
AND VIS IMAGERY INDICATES BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE LINE COLLOCATED
WITH DRYLINE N OF LBB COUNTY...THEN EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH NWRN
GAINES COUNTY. DRYLINE SHOULD KEEP MIXING EWD ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH
PLAINS REGION...BUT BECOME MORE NW-SE ALIGNED FARTHER N AS
BACKED/INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN
PANHANDLE AND OK PANHANDLE. DRYLINE ACTUALLY MAY RETREAT WWD
SOMEWHAT OVER NRN TX AND OK PANHANDLES AMIDST STRENGTHENING
ISALLOBARIC FORCING...EXTENDING SOME SVR POTENTIAL INTO WHAT NOW IS
DRY AIR MASS. MODIFIED RUC/OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING ERN EDGE OF COOLING ALOFT
OVERSPREADING REGION. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION ALOFT IS EVIDENT JUST
UPSTREAM OVER SERN NM -- WHERE CONSIDERABLE MIDLEVEL CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED OVER VERY DRY NEAR-SFC LAYER. THIS...COMBINED WITH SFC
DEW POINTS 50S F E OF DRYLINE...YIELDS MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG
IMMEDIATELY E OF DRYLINE...IN NARROW ZONE OF FAVORABLY STG
INSOLATION W OF CLOUD SHIELD FROM ACTIVITY DISCUSSED IN MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION 481.

FAVORABLE STORM-RELATIVE FLOW IS EXPECTED...GIVEN RELATIVELY BACKED
SFC WINDS EVIDENT IN TX MESONET DATA AND FCST TO CONTINUE BETWEEN
THIS AREA AND CAPROCK. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SE FLOW WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...E.G. EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES 45-50 KT FOR SFC-ROOTED PARCELS. WEAK WINDS JUST ABOVE
SFC...IN 1-2 KM AGL LAYER -- WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
RELATIVELY SMALL OVER INITIATION AREA. HOWEVER...HODOGRAPHS WILL
EXPAND EWD WITH PROXIMITY TO 40-50 KT LLJ...AND WITH TIME THIS
EVENING.

..EDWARDS.. 04/16/2009
568. beell
Photobucket
Ok guys got most of the bugs worked out.

Station #1:



Station # 2: (NEW!) Working on the webcam now



Ok it's cheesy but I gotta say it charlottefl weather network lol.
Looks good charlotte.
Quoting charlottefl:
Ok guys got most of the bugs worked out.

Station #1:



Station # 2: (NEW!) Working on the webcam now



Ok it's cheesy but I gotta say it charlottefl weather network lol.


How about CharLeh weather network :)

charlottefl- is that temp. in Lehigh Acres right? Seeems awfully high; I just checked the current temp. on the wunderground site and it shows 88.
It shows Opa Locka at 107 degrees, I highly doubt that lol.
I had a similar issue with the sun and concrete near mine. It pushed up the temp by 10 degrees at times or more.
that temp gauge is high must be in direct sun
What ever happened with that Omega Block someone predicted,

Oh, that was me.
Nevermind.
It is in direct sun (has a shield, but not fan aspirated), but nowhere near concrete, out in open area with grass, or what's left of the grass. My car is also reading 97. It's kinda like a desert out here, everything is either sand or dead grass. That might be part of the reason. Big difference between here and Charlotte but I'm quite a ways further inland too and not too close to any water.

Sorry about the delayed response. I have to have a WEST facing window.lol. My webcam doesn't like that much sunlight.
Just outta curiosity what was the source of that temp reading. I think I know, but what does it say in the scroll box at the bottom?

Quoting lakeEFX:
charlottefl- is that temp. in Lehigh Acres right? Seeems awfully high; I just checked the current temp. on the wunderground site and it shows 88.
now that would be a historic reading for opa locka!

For a while, the official Georgia state record for heat was 113 at a west central GA station May 13, 1978. I thought, wow, I never remembered any strange May heatwave like that! I looked it up and no other station in Georgia was above the high 80s that day. The 113 record was still listed in 2000, but now has been deleted.
Whoops I remembered the date wrong. It was May 27th. But here is that old record. Link
My window faces WEST, so I have so much sunlight pouring through my cam right now. There is actually an image on the second one it's just all sunlight lol. how to fix that. I'm open for suggestions ;)





Quoting charlottefl:
My window faces WEST, so I have so much sunlight pouring through my cam right now. There is actually an image on the second one it's just all sunlight lol. how to fix that. I'm open for suggestions ;)





See if there is a back light compensation setting, sometimes shown as BLC or an AI or AE which is autoiris or electronic iris, that may help, but may produce poor performance in lower light. Give and take. I take it you did not like the CharLeh suggestion for your weather site :)
I'm looking for a good outdoor webcam , anyone know a good one for outside?
Sorry. Been messing with the cam. Yea it's cool.. creative.. Cam #1 is southeast facing. #2 is W Facing . All the difference in the world.
charlotte, I see its an HP, give me a model and I will try and look up the spec if you need help while on my boooorrrring conference call.

HP Quick Cam Chat (El Cheapo) First one works great in the right conditions, I'm toying with it now. LOL you at work?

Quoting Ossqss:
charlotte, I see its an HP, give me a model and I will try and look up the spec if you need help while on my boooorrrring conference call.

I woulda thought that rain would have done something to the drought index #'s. Didn't even put a dent in em. Matter of fact they have a fire burning now 15-20 miles south of here threatening 15-20 homes.
Quoting hahaguy:
I'm looking for a good outdoor webcam , anyone know a good one for outside?
been lookin at a few haha do ya want a weather proof one or just regular
big difference
Quoting charlottefl:
HP Quick Cam Chat (El Cheapo) First one works great in the right conditions, I'm toying with it now. LOL you at work?



Always at work, one man band.

You should have a light control setting buried in the setup screen somewhere.

Haha, I checked out many of the webcams on this site and many our inside looking out and do well. The AXIS cams are exterior capable, but the budget will dictate where you go. I viewed several of them in Canada if I recall.
I may have to get creative to fix this problem.. Beach umbrella lol?
Well I decided to purchase another Station and go with the cheaper cams. Worth it in my mind. i'll figure something out for this, or there will be a 2PM -6PM whiteout lol
Quoting charlottefl:
I may have to get creative to fix this problem.. Beach umbrella lol?


I dare you to ductape sunglasses on it:0
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
been lookin at a few haha do ya want a weather proof one or just regular
big difference


I'm looking for a weather proof one.
are these wireless cams? would they hold up during a storm?
Now that's my kinda thinkin...

Quoting Ossqss:


I dare you to ductape sunglasses on it:0
The two I have up are indoors looking out. Mounted in a window. Well at least the one you can see.


Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
are these wireless cams? would they hold up during a storm?
ha ha wireless or wired
Sorry one track mind. Wired.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ha ha wireless or wired
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ha ha wireless or wired


wireless
Ossqss- I would if I owned a pair of sunglasses. What would you ever need those in FL for? :P
Charlotte: I'd be skeptical of one of those readings. The humidity on one of the 2 has to be incorrect.
As hurricane season comes around, what impact will the Digital transition make as most Houstonians received anolog only as Ike passed and in the following weeks cleanup.
Link
ITEM 9 10 11 12 ON FIRST PAGE
FYI, Stillwaiting was right on the ISS item. Very bright in the early AM. Link
Thanks keeper
The humidity is 7% less than what RSW is reporting right now. I actually believe it's accurate.+ or - whatever error margin the instrument has.

Quoting SWFLgazer:
Charlotte: I'd be skeptical of one of those readings. The humidity on one of the 2 has to be incorrect.
607. beell
huh...long-range forcast for West Palm has highs in the upper 60's - lower 70's a week from tomorrow!...hope it's true!
These are local airport conditions 5 miles from here. International Airport. Crazy humidity values in FL are this low right now.

Fairly Similar

Clear
Humidity: 22%
Dew Point: 42 %uFFFDF
Wind: 6 mph from the NNW

Pressure: 30.00 in (Steady)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 3 out of 16
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 30 ft

Cmon Charlotte, you could be the first webcam sunglasses user in the country. I bet it works, use polarized if you havem :)
I'll try and dig up some el cheapo's if I can find any.
Quoting Ossqss:
Cmon Charlotte, you could be the first webcam sunglasses user in the country. I bet it works, use polarized if you havem :)
Charlottefl, I think your station is close to right. I live in zephyrhill Fl and i'm always 5 to 8 degrees higher than the airport. I'm also out in nowear land. My highest temp. this year so far is 95.8 last week.
That's what I was trying to say. It's literally like a desert out here right now. Sand and dead grass. And there's no water source nearby to cool things down. There is always a margin of error, comes with any piece of machinery, but it's close.

Quoting severstorm:
Charlottefl, I think your station is close to right. I live in zephyrhill Fl and i'm always 5 to 8 degrees higher than the airport. I'm also out in nowear land. My highest temp. this year so far is 95.8 last week.
I can see it!
Charlottefl Do you get colder or that far south cooler than most areas. again i'm always 5 to 8 degrees cooler than most except when its cloudy or raining.
Yea WD has 15 million switches and boxes you have to check but I finally got it. I'd aim it to the left, but you'd just get more sun lol.

Quoting Ossqss:
I can see it!
It got down to 26 or 27 hold on I'll find the pic to prove it lol. Crazy cold for this far south. My station in PC recorded like 24.8 or something crazy like that.


Quoting severstorm:
Charlottefl Do you get colder or that far south cooler than most areas. again i'm always 5 to 8 degrees cooler than most except when its cloudy or raining.
Actually asked Dr. M, he said the all time record low here was 24 in like 1894. Pretty close.

Photobucket
OK found someone who knows what i'm talkin about. My lowest temp this winter was 20.5 and i'd have to check my weather station history to prove it.
Like my aunt just sold an orange grove in desoto county. Her temp there could be 8-10 degrees colder than the small city of Arcadia.


Quoting severstorm:
OK found someone who knows what i'm talkin about. My lowest temp this winter was 20.5 and i'd have to check my weather station history to prove it.
I'll post a couple pics of my setup here in a min
ok i can not get this thing to copy and paste my weather station

Firing of prominent LSU scientist raises questions

4/16/2009, 4:34 p.m. CDT
CAIN BURDEAU
The Associated Press

NEW ORLEANS (AP) — NEW ORLEANS (AP) ? Ivor van Heerden, a sandy-haired South African scientist with a penchant for levees and coastal environments, delighted in his role after Hurricane Katrina as one of the few scientists in Louisiana willing to criticize the Army Corps of Engineers.

With his field instruments in hand, van Heerden was a go-to source for news organizations, talk radio and documentary film makers. His message was consistent: The corps was at fault for poor levee engineering and had to be held accountable.

Van Heerden claims Louisiana State University fired him April 3 because of his outspokenness and because the school was afraid of losing federal funding. LSU officials have declined to discuss van Heerden's firing, saying it is a personnel matter.

On Thursday, about 30 supporters of van Heerden held signs and marched in front of a LSU Health Sciences Center library in New Orleans, shouting "L-S-U, shame on you!"

The signs read: "LSU take the politics out of hurricane studies" and "LSU ? stop gagging experts."

"Van Heerden was one of the few to step out and tell the truth that it was corps' engineering," said Ray Broussard, a 50-year-old maritime photographer. He lived in the Lakeview neighborhood when Katrina hit Aug. 29, 2005, and his home was flooded with 7 feet of water.

About 50 levee breaches contributed to the deaths of about 1,300 people after Katrina struck. The Army Corps has spent billions to try to repair and upgrade hundreds of miles of levees by 2011.
Nice setup there. I'll bet your wind speeds are not that high.
Yeah it's difficult to get one of those on a roof like ours, had a 10mph gust today I think.

Quoting severstorm:
Nice setup there. I'll bet your wind speeds are not that high.
I know the standard is 33ft. but to be honest I don't live 33ft above the ground so..lol..it's ok w me.
I fixed that same problem w/mine. Iran 24ft of pvc up the side of my house tied it down to the roof. Before highest wind gust was 12mph nom it was 25.6. I also live where there are quite a few trees
Actually my anemometer in Charlotte is a foot lower, and the highest gust so far has been 23mph, and that's without even going through a summmer with thunderstorms, so. (Ironically, that was in one of the outer bands of Ike)

Quoting severstorm:
I fixed that same problem w/mine. Iran 24ft of pvc up the side of my house tied it down to the roof. Before highest wind gust was 12mph nom it was 25.6. I also live where there are quite a few trees
Looks great CharLeh weather international :)
Be well.

PS, don't over look using some of the old sat dish mounts. The can work well sometimes.
Well 33ft might be the standard but my station said to put it 24ft so i did. I just could not get up the telephone pole for 33ft. LOL
Hey nice weather station and i'll be talkin to ya
LOL Thanks.

Quoting severstorm:
Hey nice weather station and i'll be talkin to ya
I like your setup there charlotte.
I bet it is hard trying to put your station on the roof with all the angles.
Quoting hahaguy:
I bet it is hard trying to put your station on the roof with all the angles.


I have helped some friends mount them on the fascia or chimney with satellite dish bases and pole. They can be easily adapted to the station pole and supported accordingly. They dont weigh much. L8R all.
Thanks. Yeah I just decided I could live with 7ft. :) As opposed to ladders and broken limbs ;)

Quoting hahaguy:
I bet it is hard trying to put your station on the roof with all the angles.
It probably wouldn't survive a storm though.


Mine is attached to a pole that runs up the chimney -- do you have surge protection?? We've got lightening rods -- otherwise I think it would have been fried several times over
I have devised a Mathmatical and Statistical Formula to come up with my 2009 Tropical Outlook. It is in a Blog format for you to input for discussion. Thanks.

http://tampaspinsweather.webs.com/apps/blog/show/813074-tropical-formula
That's interesting tampa. I'm glad you did the math cause I'm not good at math lol.
Wow Patrap -- they're not sleeping sheeple in NOLA........walking the talk
Quoting hahaguy:
That's interesting tampa. I'm glad you did the math cause I'm not good at math lol.


I played around with this idea in my head for a while and today i just decided to put something together. Its on a saved spreadsheet and when 1 rating changes it could affect the outcome.
Quoting charlottefl:
Just outta curiosity what was the source of that temp reading. I think I know, but what does it say in the scroll box at the bottom?



Charlottefl- sorry I didn't respond to your question earlier today- I didn't see it until now. My mom called me with a problem and I had to go help her out. She's 80 years old and going blind- thank God she lives around the corner from me. Anyhow- I went back to where I saw that temp. report and it was a PWS from KFLLEHIG9- map shows the location of it on Richmond Ave., just 1 block north from Leeland Heights Blvd. I didn't realize it was a PWS at the time that I checked, but I wasn't disputing your information, I was just amazed that the temp. was that hot. But seeing how low the humidity was at the time, and the location inland, it surely is possible. South Florida has been more like the dry southwestern states lately. Kinda strange.
the two tone talk the two tone talk of the two tone talk and the other tone talk alwys knows the real two tone talk the two tone talk.........ok thank you
Quoting G35Wayne:
the two tone talk the two tone talk of the two tone talk and the other tone talk alwys knows the real two tone talk the two tone talk.........ok thank you

UMM? lol
Quoting hahaguy:

UMM? lol


Haha, I am in the mix for a cam also. Been looking for several months, just dont like the fact of leaving a PC on all the time. I have been tryin to ID one that can work via router. Have you seen anything in that areana?

BTW, thought my PC was OK and opened it up to a pile of dust in it and on the fans. That is a killer of PC's
Quoting Ossqss:


Haha, I am in the mix for a cam also. Been looking for several months, just dont like the fact of leaving a PC on all the time. I have been tryin to ID one that can work via router. Have you seen anything in that areana?

BTW, thought mine was OK and opened it up to a pile of dust in it and on the fans. That is a killer of PC's


I'm with you i don't want to have to leave my laptop on 24/7. I haven't seen anything yet that lets the webcam run from a router. I've been looking for a few weeks know. It would be perfect if a storm comes our way. I'll let you know if i find anything.
Subject: Cyclonic Storm Bijli over northwest Bay of Bengal:

Yellow message (Orissa and West Bengal)

At 21:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Bijli over west-central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal moved in a northeasterly direction and lay centered over northwest Bay
of Bengal near 20.0N 87.5Em or about 100 kms east-southeast of Paradip, 180 kms south of
Digha, and 350 kms southwest of Khepupara, Bangladesh. The system is likely to move in a northeasterly direction towards Bangladesh coast. The radar observations continue to show sign of weakening of the system.

Under its influence, rain/thundershower at many places with isolated heavy falls is likely over coastal area of Orissa and West Bengal during next 36 hours.

Gale force winds speed reaching 60-70 km/h gusting to 80 km/h are likely along and off Orissa coast during next 24 hours and West Bengal coast during next 36 hours. Sea condition will be very rough to high.

Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off these coasts.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
Current: 19.5N 87.0E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 21.0N 89.5E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 21.5 91.5E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
Quoting surfmom:
Wow Patrap -- they're not sleeping sheeple in NOLA........walking the talk


Lotsa folks participated from ALL walks of Life surfmom.

It was a Quiet,peaceful voicing of Legitimate concerns.

Voices of reason for LSU to Digest.

Democracy in action,powered by People.
Complete Blog Refresh, with New Weather/CritterCam
Mirror Site
Current Home weather station data.

Daily Area of Interest
Click to enlarge
Please,if you want to see the truth about the Levee failures from real people who lived there,and some of the science involved. Check out this unique Presentation by Levee.org.

John Goodman a New Orleans resident explains here as well.
Also Ivor van Heerden and Harry Shearer also speak too.

This one is a must for any County or Parish from the 46% of Americans living behind Federally Built Levves.

Video Testimony and more

Levees.org
Quoting TampaSpin:


I played around with this idea in my head for a while and today i just decided to put something together. Its on a saved spreadsheet and when 1 rating changes it could affect the outcome.


Umm I can see what you have, but there is nothing to tell us how you got it? A mathematical formula requires variable and constants.. you don't show how, where or even why the ratings are the values you put in?
FYI, blog folks, no kidding, if you have a desktop PC, open the cover and blow the dust out of it. Heat accumulates via the dust like a blanket and cooks the boards and pressures the fan bearings/bushings, in particular if your power supply fan or processor fan has any accumulation of dust on them. Think of it like a propeller on a plane, you don't want anything to interfere with its performance. Use compressed air, don't try to wipe them off. I thought I ran a clean ship and was suprised at the crapola in my case on the mother hen PC. Consider it part or your hurricane prep work :)

Homework if you will.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Umm I can see what you have, but there is nothing to tell us how you got it? A mathematical formula requires variable and constants.. you don't show how, where or even why the ratings are the values you put in?


Hmmmm :)
Quoting Ossqss:


Hmmmm :)


Ahh I forgot about that :)
There is the Variable (Trajectory) and the two constants (Dart & Board), the the unknown (dull dart bouncing off the board)

See, you do know complicated math :)


BRB off for a MRI
Forgive me Tampaspin, but Orca made me do it ª¿ª

Quoting Ossqss:
Forgive me Tampaspin, but Orca made me do it ª¿ª



LMAO
When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself.



J/k
647. I believe its a lil wayne song :P.
Honestly I hope this Hurricane Season is as bad as this movie.

img src="" alt="" />
Quoting Patrap:
When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself.



J/k


Well,... It doesn't look any different than any other Tropical Weather forecast this time of year :)
Already ready for Calamity.
I have everything I need and Plenty-o-fuel stashed to go.
Calamity can come any Day. Even in Spring.
Vortex i havent seen that clip in a long time , it's such a crappy movie lol.
or this movie

Now is the time to Restock and check ones Cane Seasonal Supplies,

Water
Food
Fuel
Cash
Insurance Papers
Video of Possessions, etc,etc,etc.
Quoting Patrap:
Now is the time to Restock and check ones Cane Seasonal Supplies,

Water
Food
Fuel
Cash
Insurance Papers
Video of Possessions, etc,etc,etc.


Pat you forgot the beer. but I got all of my supplies ready , but still need a few flashlights.
Don't forget the cards for peedro and maybe some chips for poker.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Umm I can see what you have, but there is nothing to tell us how you got it? A mathematical formula requires variable and constants.. you don't show how, where or even why the ratings are the values you put in?


Apparently you did not read the comment section.

The formula above is spread on an Excel Spreadsheet. If anyone has better ideas let me know. Not sure what values are correct for the current ratings in place. I will analyze those next week and give everyone my best prediction for the upcoming Tropcial Season.

Yes they are subjective just as every predection is. It would be great to make it totally with known Variables. If you can tell me where i would find such things for everything i would love to plug them in. I would love the help. Thanks.
Got some spinners in the panhandle of Texas tonight. Keep those people in your prayers tonight.
Orca see what you did.

Tampa, gotta go, and feel this may be appropriate. :)

There's nothing like Monty Pyhton.
677. Ossqss 10:30 PM EDT on April 16, 2009
Orca see what you did.

Tampa, gotta go, and feel this may be appropriate. :)


Thanks i needed that!

Quoting PresidentialElection:


Hey, Tim!


JFV is that you
Quoting Ossqss:
Orca see what you did.

Tampa, gotta go, and feel this may be appropriate. :)



ROFLMAO... I love it :)
671. Patrap 7:15 PM PDT on April 16, 2009
Now is the time to Restock and check ones Cane Seasonal Supplies,

Water
Food
Fuel
Cash
Insurance Papers
Video of Possessions, etc,etc,etc
lifejacket
Outstanding Taz..

"Lifejacket"

Lifevest or 2 maybe to help another.

Thanks for that reminder.

I'll add that to my Blog items.
Quoting Patrap:



662. Patrap 2:01 AM GMT on April 17, 2009 Hide this comment.
When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin Number TWENTY
Cyclonic Storm Bijli (BOB01-2009)
8:30 AM IST April 17 2009
=====================================

Sub: Cyclonic Storm BIJLI over northwest Bay of Bengal

Yellow message (West Bengal and Bangladesh)


At 3:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Bijli over northwest Bay of Bengal moved eastwards and lay centered near 20.5N 88.5E, or about 150 kms southeast of Digha, 240 kms southwest of Khepupara, Bangladesh and 400 kms southwest of Chittagaon, Bangladesh. The system is likely to move in a east northeasterly direction and cross Bangladesh coast near Chittagaon, Bangladesh around midnight (April 18th, India Standard Time)

Maximum 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 40 knots with a minimum central pressure of 996 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough to high around the system's center.

Storm Surge Guidance Based on ITT Delhi Model
===========================================
Storm surge with height of about 2-3 meters above astronomical tide is likely over Bangladesh coast near land point at the time of landfall.

Satellite imagery shows broken intense to very intense convection over Bay of Bengal north of 19.0N and west of 91.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -60C. The Dvorak Intensity of the system is T2.5 and is expected to remain at that intensity of the next 24 hours.

Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is between 5 to 10 knots. 24 hours shear tendency is negative around the system. The system lies on the northwest periphery of an anticyclonic circulation over the east central Bay of Bengal. As a result, the system is likely to move in an east-northeasterly direction and cross Bangladesh coast to the south of Chittagaon between 1800 UTC and 2100 UTC, today (17 APRIL).
Forecast and Intensity
======================
Current: 20.5 88.5E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
3 HRS: 21.0 89.0E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
9 HRS: 21.5N 90.5E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
14 HRS: 22.0N 92.0E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
21 HRS: 22.5N 93.5E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
Previous news from thursday
published at 1500 PM UTC (2030PM IST)

DHAKA (Reuters) - Bangladesh asked ports to raise warning signals higher on Thursday as cyclone Bijli advanced towards the coast from the Bay of Bengal, the meteorological department said.

Authorities also ordered all fishing boats and trawlers to remain close to shore as the storm was churning menacingly, packing winds up to 80 kph.

It was about 800 kms southwest of the country's main Chittagong port at 0900 GMT on Thursday.

"Cyclone Bijli is likely to intensify and move in a north- northeasterly direction," said a statement from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD).

Meteorologists said Bijli, which means lightning, was likely to make a landfall late Saturday or early Sunday at Bangladesh's Chittagong-Cox's Bazar coastline.

Bangladesh grades storms with signals ranging from 1 to 10, and authorities start major preparations when the signal is raised to five or beyond.

"The ports have been asked to hoist warning signal no. 3, until further notice," the BMD statement said.

The government in Orissa state in eastern India also issued alerts to all coastal districts and warned fishermen not to put out to sea.

Storms batter Bangladesh, a poor south Asian country every year. Cyclone Sidr ravaged its coasts in November 2007, killing nearly 3,500 people and displacing some two million.
Published at 0600 UTC (1130 IST)

Bangladesh gears for evacuation after raising storm alert

DHAKA (Reuters) - Disaster-prone Bangladesh braced on Friday for a cyclone gaining strength in the Bay of Bengal, raising the storm warning to signal number six and ordering fishing boats back to shore.
The storm "Bijli", packing winds up to 90 kph (55 mph), was around 480 kms (300 miles) from Cox's Bazar on Friday morning, meteorology officials said. It was about 520 kms (325 miles) from the main port Chittagong and around 360 kms (225 miles) from Mongla, they said.

"Bijli is gaining strength as it continues to move towards the shorelines and may hit the coast by Friday night or Saturday morning," a meteorology official in Cox's Bazar, around 350 km (220 miles) from the capital, Dhaka, told Reuters.

Coastal districts have been experiencing medium to heavy rain since Thursday night, local officials said.

Bangladesh grades storms with signals ranging from 1 to 10, and authorities start major preparations when the signal is raised to five or beyond.

Red Crescent volunteers, police and other security forces are also on alert to deal with any emergency, including a possible tidal surge, one official said.

Storms and cyclones batter Bangladesh almost every year, killing many people and causing huge damage to crops and property.
Bangladesh Meteorological Department
Special Weather Statement

THE CYCLONIC STORM “BIJLI” (WITH ECP 988 HPA) OVER NORTH BAY AND ADJOINING AREA ADJOINING MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARDS AND NOW LIES OVER THE SAME AREA AND WAS CENTRED AT 12 NOON TODAY (THE 17 APRIL 2009) about 405 kms southwest of chittagong port, 375 kms SOUTHWEST of cox’s bazar port and 255 kms south-southwest of mongla port (near lat.20.2 0 N and long.88.8 0 E). iT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY further AND MOVE in a north/NORTHEASTERly direction AND MAY CROSS BARISAL-CHITTAGONG COAST NEAR MEGHNA ESTUARY BY EARLY NIGHT/MID NIGHT TO NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WITHIN 54 KMS OF THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS ABOUT 70 KPH RISING TO 90 KPH IN GUSTS/SQUALLS. SEA WILL REMAIN VERY ROUGH.

MARITIME PORT OF CHITTAGONG HAS BEEN ADVISED TO LOWER DANGER SIGNAL NO. SIX BUT INSTEAD HOIST DANGER SIGNAL NO. SEVEN (R) SEVEN.

THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF CHITTAGONG, NOAKHALI, FENI, LAXMIPUR, BHOLA, BARISAL CHANDPUR AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS WILL COME UNDER DANGER SIGNAL NO. SEVEN (R) SEVEN.

MARITIME PORT OF COX’S BAZAR HAS BEEN ADVISED TO KEEP HOISTED DANGER SIGNAL NO. SIX (R) SIX.

THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF COX’S BAZAR AND OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS WILL COME UNDER DANGER SIGNAL NO. SIX (R) SIX.

MARITIME PORT OF MONGLA HAS BEEN ADVISED TO KEEP HOISTED DANGER SIGNAL NO. FIVE (R) FIVE.

THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF PATUAKHALI, BORGUNA, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA, AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS WILL COME UNDER DANGER SIGNAL NO. FIVE (R) FIVE.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STORM, THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF COX’S BAZAR, CHITTAGONG, NOAKHALI, FENI, LAXMIPUR, BHOLA, BARISAL, PATUAKHALI, BORGUNA, CHANDPUR, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA, AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAIN ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLY WIND SPEED UP TO 120 KPH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM.

THE LOW-LYING AREAS OF THE COASTAL DISTRICTS OF COX’S BAZAR, CHITTAGONG, NOAKHALI, FENI, LAXMIPUR, BHOLA, BARISAL, PATUAKHALI, BORGUNA, CHANDPUR, PIROZPUR, JHALOKATHI, BAGERHAT, KHULNA, SATKHIRA, AND THEIR OFFSHORE ISLANDS AND CHARS ARE LIKELY TO BE INUNDATED BY STORM SURGE OF HEIGHT 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE.

ALL FISHING BOATS AND TRAWLERS OVER NORTH BAY MUST REMAIN IN SHELTER TILL FURTHER NOTICE.

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You thought India had a hard time writing advisories.. Baha LOL
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin Number TWENTY-ONE
Cyclonic Storm Bijli (BOB01-2009)
11:30 AM IST April 17 2009
=====================================

Sub: Cyclonic storm, ‘BIJLI’ over northwest Bay of Bengal:

Yellow message (West Bengal and Bangladesh)


Ay 06:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm BIJLI over northwest Bay of Bengal moved northeastwards and lays centered at 21.0N 89.0E about 160 km east-southeast of Digha, 160 km southwest of Khepupara, Bangladesh and 350 km southwest of Chittagaon, Bangladesh. The system is likely to move in an east-northeasterly direction and cross Bangladesh coast close to the south of Chittagaon, Bangladesh around midnight of today/early morning of tomorrow (India Standard Time)

Under its influence, rain/thundershower at many places with isolated heavy falls is likely over coastal areas of West Bengal during next 24 hours and over Mizoram & Tripura during next 36 hours. Rain/thundershowers is also likely at many places over coastal areas of north Orissa during next 12 hours.

Gale force winds speed reaching 60-70 km/h gusting to 80 km/h are likely along and off West Bengal coast during next 24 hours and north Orissa coast during next 12 hours. Sea condition will be very rough to high. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off these coasts.

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Whee spamming, j/k
Any thoughts on that plug of moisture in the gulf. Forcast for my area today is only partly cloudy. Looks like the gulf is telling a different story.
Quoting ftpiercecane:
Any thoughts on that plug of moisture in the gulf. Forcast for my area today is only partly cloudy. Looks like the gulf is telling a different story.


Should move in the general direction toward Texas.
697. beell
Nice combination of features last night over the TX panhandle. Wish I could claim I saw them all. End result-at least 11 tornado reports.

A nearly stationary dryline in W TX with an eastward bulge near Lubbock.
A southwestward moving outflow boundary (OFB) intersecting the dryline bulge.
ADDED: also a bit of a surface low S of this area.

Enough increased surface convergence and low level shear to fire off the first of several supercells. Initiation of each of these cells confined to a small area near the slow moving dance of these boundaries. As the OFB ran out of steam, the marine boundary took over or added continued convergence.

One of the last visibles from yesterday afternoon:
5:31PM CDT
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That Beell is pretty smart.
Quoting tornadofan:
That Beell is pretty smart.


Yep dam good.
701. beell
Post-smart maybe. Better to be pre-smart with tornadoes
Quoting beell:
Post-smart maybe. Better to be pre-smart with tornadoes


True - got to know when to set up your cameras and camcorders ahead of time.
I just read Dr. Bill Grays 31 page 4-9 Tropical Atlantic Forecast. Summary is interesting!

Summary:
a) The SST's in the Atlantic are running below normal
b) We are currently in a Weak state of La Nina but, could go nuetral or Weak El Nino during the Season.
c) Low Shear values currently but, could increase if El Nino kicks in!
d) Weaker than normal Azores High which could lead to Warmer SST's if continued!

Translation is Slightly above average Tropical Outlook!
New Blog posted!
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Bangladesh Meteorological Department
Special Weather Statement


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You thought India had a hard time writing advisories.. Baha LOL
LOL Hey, at least they're writing them, and putting up those flags. . . . I am mindful of the difference between Bangladesh's massive decrease in cyclone-related deaths over the last several years. It seems they are taking their preps a bit more seriously. BIG contrast to Myanmar. . .