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Outlook for the remainder of hurricane season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:15 PM GMT on September 15, 2006

Could Ernesto end up being the worst the hurricane season of 2006 has to dish out? With the season more than half over, and no landfalling storms in sight, this year in no way resembles the Hurricane Season of 2005, when we had 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes by this date. Our tally so far this year is a relatively meager 8 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane, right near average. Looking at the plot of typical hurricane activity for the Atlantic (Figure 1), we see that we are almost a week past the peak of hurricane season, which was September 10. We still have a long road ahead--hurricane activity stays high for another four to five weeks, on average. Let's analyze analyze what the remainder of hurricane season may have in store for us.


Figure 1. Ernesto--the main event of the hurricane season of 2006? Image credit: NOAA Visualization Lab.


Figure 2. Climatological Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm activity.

Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs)
It's mid-September, and SSTs have peaked in the Atlantic and are on a slow decline. Still, water temperatures will remain warm enough to support hurricanes throughout usual Atlantic development areas through the end of October. SSTs are 0.5-1.5C warmer than normal right now (Figure 3), which is a huge amount of extra heat energy. The Bermuda High has stayed relatively weak all of August and September, leading to lighter trade winds that have kept the ocean warm due to reduced evaporative cooling.


Figure 3. Difference of SSTs from normal for Sep 11, 2006.

Wind shear and El Nio
An El Nio is on the way, according to the latest El Nio discussion posted September 7 by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. A steady warming of the waters in the Equatorial Pacific near the coast of South America, combined with stronger than usual westerly winds over the Equatorial Pacific, point toward the emergence of a weak El Nio episode beginning in October or November. As most of you know, El Nio conditions put a major damper on both the number and intensity of Atlantic tropical cyclones. This is primarily due to increased wind shear. The upper air winds that develop when one heats the Equatorial Eastern Pacific waters tend to blow from west to east over the Atlantic at high speed. Since the tropical Atlantic trade winds near the surface typically blow the opposite direction, this creates a lot of shear that makes it difficult for a tropical cyclone to survive. Since the peak portion of hurricane season began in late August, wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, western Caribbean, eastern Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico has been near or below normal, so there is no sign that a developing El Nio is suppressing hurricane activity yet. When I eyeball the shear forecast for the coming two weeks from the GFS model, I don't see any sign that an El Nio-induced increase in shear is in the offing this September.

While the lack of wind shear would seem to favor an active hurricane season, what wind shear we have had has been of exceptionally high quality. The jet stream has spun off a continual series of upper level "cold lows" over the Bahamas and central Caribbean that have brought hostile wind shear to any tropical waves or tropical storms that have tried to approach. This jet stream pattern has been in place since early June, and shows no signs of changing through the end of September.

Dry air and vertical instability
Hurricanes like plenty of moist, unstable air. This has been lacking this year, thanks to an above-average amount of dry Saharan air coming off the coast of Africa. For example, take a look at the instability plot for the eastern Caribbean, where many of last year's fiercest storms formed. Instability has been well below normal this year. Model projections through the rest of September show no change to the basic atmospheric pattern over the Atlantic, and I expect lack of instability will continue to inhibit hurricane development.

Steering pattern
The large scale jet stream pattern and associated positioning of the Bermuda High has remained unchanged since early June, and is forecast to remain the same through the end of September. This pattern puts a trough of low pressure over the U.S. East Coast, which will act to recurve storms approaching the U.S. or Caribbean. Now that we are entering late September, the troughs are getting stronger and extending farther south, making recurvature even more likely. The current pattern has been for tropical waves that form into tropical storms to emerge from Africa at about the latitude of the Cape Verde Islands (12-15 north latitude). This is far enough north to make recurvature very likely. This pattern is forecast to continue through the end of September, and I don't expect any of these African systems will be able to avoid recurvature. We will probably get two or three more of these recurving storms before the usual end to the African tropical storm season in early October.

Summary
Given that the current jet stream pattern that favors recurving storms and shear-producing upper level lows over the Bahamas and central Caribbean is forecast to continue until the end of September, plus Bill Gray's September 1 forecast of only two named storms and one non-major hurricane in October, I don't believe any major hurricanes will affect the U.S. or Caribbean the remainder of hurricane season. I expect one or two tropical storms or Category 1 hurricanes will form in October from the remains of old cold fronts that push off the coast of the U.S. A hurricane of this nature is most likely to affect the west coast of Florida or the Outer Banks of North Carolina, and rarely has enough time over water to make it to Category 3 status. In total, I expect 5 more named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane this season.

Additional thoughts
I answered a series of questions on what the rest of this year's hurricane season might be like for Texas, the Katrina disaster, and the global warming/hurricane connection for houstonist.com that appeared in today's edition.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

he was banned for linking explicit sites...is it really that hard for some of you to comprehend that?
Not trying to ":snow" anywone franck. Just saying he was all over the place with the links last night.

Actually SEFL, he was involved in a discussion just last night with turtle about dvorak numbers....That seems pretty weather related to me.
The funniest was the link to SJ's.

SJ, why does Rays not like going to your place?
SWLA, so he was warned...So be it then.

Kinda like Lefty earning his banning last year dropping F bombs all over the place one night...
SJ, I have no idea about a warning. I'm just saying that he was on late last night after Aaron addressed it with him. Kinda like the time between trial and sentencing, I guess.

I dunno, had he been warned??????
1006. SEFL
Posted By: StormJunkie at 9:31 AM EDT on September 16, 2006.
Not trying to ":snow" anywone franck. Just saying he was all over the place with the links last night.

Actually SEFL, he was involved in a discussion just last night with turtle about dvorak numbers....That seems pretty weather related to me.


I wouldn't not call that a discussion. It was more I am right and you don't know what you are talking about.
1007. Broward
Dodabear... you are welcome
just wondering... i know a little bit about tropical weather and stuff but im still confused on how they determine the dvorak numbers. can someone enligthen me on how they come up with the numbers and what they mean
1009. SEFL
But...it is EEEEEEEERIE...all his posts are gone.
Ray's just does not like me, SWLA....

They think that I stole the idea of the site from WSI, and no matter how many times I explain that my site was running long before weathercore.com and that my ideas were my own creation, they choose to assume differently. Many of them do not care for me from "blog policing" arguments that went on last year, or because I still choose to hang out with the folks in the Dr's blog as opposed to run from sometimes frustrating discussions and repeated disputes like trying to convince the "Go West" crowd that it is not happening. Really it is a much longer story then that, but that is the just. Some folks do not like the basically uncensored format of the WU and wish they could control the ban buttons...
SEFL...not so eerie. I think when you're banned, your blog as well as your posts go "poof!"
that LBAR model needs to learn how to read all the enviromental factors, expicially when it trys to throw Helene toward me.....

Dang You LBAR!!
None the less weather related SEFL...

As for his post being gone, that is what happens when your user name is removed fromt he WU. It was a pretty stuipid move on his part, and I can imagine some are rejoicing in his departure....

He was an ass sometimes, but then most of us are sometimes in one way or another...
Oh well...I guess you'll always have that stuff in a format such as this. I just thought the comment about "getting Rays to SJ's site" was kinda funny. From that I assumed that there was a problem there.
Yes the navy site has Helene a 75mph Hurricane with a pressure of 987mb. Thats a 5mb drop in pressure sine the 5am update.
Hurricane Helene next 11am update.
Patriots 06
1016. SEFL
Posted By: StormJunkie at 9:42 AM EDT on September 16, 2006.
None the less weather related SEFL...

But indicative of his demeanor and general behavior.
As it was meant to be SWLA, I really have nothing against Rays, or anyone else for that matter. Just wish we could all be a little more open minded sometimes.

But yes, I thought it was prettty funny Rays went to my site yesterday. Not even sure that was Rands intention.

Wonder if Rand will be back under another name.

Anywho, y'all get back to weather. Enough of this silliness. I am off to get some work done around the house.

SJ
SEFL, I watched folks defend Jeffmanweather last year....

Rands demeanor was nothing compared to some of the stuff I have seen on here.
Good Morning: For those who are interested in the area off North Carolina:

A 1010mbar low along a frontal boundary off the East Coast of The United States, is located near 34N/74W. Quiksat pass revealed a well-defined closed circulation with winds of 20-25knots and a couple of buoys located near the low reported 20knot sustain winds. The low is almost void of all convection due to the immense sinking dry air behind the frontal boundary, and wind shear is very hostile, of about 40+ knots.
Come see my Blog
Any body see the 6z GFS, it really trended west!
2005, gotta link?
08LHELENE.65kts-987mb

Helene will be a Cat1 at 11am

t


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/index_ten_m_loop.shtml
Anyone have any ideas about the westward jump on the models around 48 hours from now?
That GFS trend west is only likely to make a difference for maybe Bermuda. It should also be noted that the Ukmet jumped E just as far as the GFS jumped W. The high is just too weak to allow anything to move W. There is a very outside chance that the high over the E coast bridges with the Bermuda/Azores high, and allows a storm to affect the E coast, but very very unlikely...

You can find many of the models here. For the FSU site set the field to 850 mb vorticity and select animate then use the + button on the right or lower portion of the screen to run the model. THe GFDL only runs at surface pressure though.
models starting to spread out

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
1028. ricderr
yep..they're still spreaad out, but what you see..is all showing a northward track at the end of their run...that's what i want to see.....may be tough on bermuda again..but not the conus
Good morning, all! I for one will miss Randrewl. And, we all make mistakes. Whatever, reason he was banned, it's my hope that the Adm will re-consider his membership ASAP.

As far as I could tell, he's always been cordial and courteous. There've been times I'd send an email to him with a question and always got a prompt answer.

I also appreciated his generally light humor and also his tolerance for the "crimminally insane" in here sometimes.

Certainly, Rand is a very knowledgeable weather affecianado and his casts were always very interesting to me.

-- So, when is Helene, or Issac gonna find the GOM? Middle of next week? I think she'll still use the "John Wayne Effect" before all is said and done...fish? maybe not.

how can helan just stop and back up with all those currents around it
Helene is a Cat 1 Hurricane
opps wrong one
Man we have been getting a lot of hurricanes lately 4 I bet Issac will be a Cane
Bermuda High is strengthening, we're looking at a more westward track. this could spell bad news guys.

08L Helene Winds 65kts 987mb
Is that high just going to stay dead? Or is it supposed to get its act together eventually? What do the models think?
i dont know what masters was saying about nothing coming off of africa for the next 2 weeks. Here comes Isaac right now.

Whata up GulfScotsman
td-9 any one lmao
Story, bad news for who?

Bermuda maybe....

No need to senselessly get folks worked up with misleading statements. There is about a 2% chance anything effects the E coast in the next two weeks IMHO. The trofs are rolling off the E coast and that weak high would have to do a whole lot of building to make a difference...
it has been doing a lot of building the past 2 days. im not saying its going to, im saying it could. 2% is propostorous. id say 30%.
when do the models have the ridge building again?? or will it stay like this the rest of the season?
RE: Randrewal's banning. I don't like it, admittedly I actually slept well last night and missed what happened.
Evidently perhaps the "management" didn't like links to sexually explicit websites due to children having access to them??
I am fairly new and don't know much about weather but the liklihood of children being on here is slim to none, I mean like pre-adolesents. I know some of you are 15 and 17 but if you haven't figured things out and know weather?? Well I just don't know what to say. My kids grew up on a farm, nuff said?
Rand has been in some "discussions" (translation bickering fests) but so have I and some were completely not EVEN asked for on my part.
Did he contribute to the weather discussion??
Did he put trolls and general troublemakers in their place??

Was the guy who was making reference to his male memeber and someone elses mother banned?? I found that offensive for one and I used to work with truck drivers!
If a child were to get on here would not the parental controls they SHOULD have on their computer keep them from perverse sites?? (luckily by the time we had internet mine were old enough I told them look @ what you want, I don't want evidence of it and don't waste my printer ink, two boys and computer was in family room)
I understand keeping troublemakers off here but Rand often had a short sometimes crass sentence to put them in their place.
I don't like the buttons and we shouldn't threaten others with them but there are quite a few things we "shouldn't" do!!
Just a few thoughts on banning a "regular", I'm sure it gives the rest of us the warm fuzzies. I for one would miss this blog but not enough evidently to keep my mouth shut.
Terry
i dont base my opinions on what troughs "could" do, i base them on what theyre doing right now.
No story, 30% is crazy. If you have an understanding of the imagery, models, and current conditions you would know that...

As the Dr has said, and many fo the other knowledgable folks on here, it is very very unlikely that anything will effect the E coast of the US by moving W in to it. Now if something pops up in the Gulf or Carib, then it could effect the US, but as far as the African systems go...They will not make it very far W!

crazy is pretending like you know how to predict the weather
Posted By: groundman at 2:25 PM GMT on September 16, 2006.
RE: Randrewal's banning.

Articulate and accurate, Terry, agreed.
and since when is 30% likely? im not saying its likely to hit either, all i said is its got a better chance now, get a life.
So then explain what your immense knowledge tells you t hey are doing Story as opposed to just making statements like "this could be bad". Also learn to accpet the fact that it is very unlikely a system effects the E coast this year. Not out of the question, but very unlikely. Also please tell me why folks should listen to you over what the Dr has explained in great detail.
lmao Story.....

dont worry, Helene will most likely be a fish storm
youre gonna bite your tongue with that 2% if you end up bein wrong
Hi everyone....... interestiing to see the models shift west again..... This could bring Helene closer to Bermuda......
....and now, we should all sit together, in a circle and sing, "Kum By Ya".....
i was saying from the beginning it was gonna be a fish storm, too, dont get your panties in a bundle StormJunkie, we're just talking possibilities
1057. franck
No rational reason whatsoever for anyone interested in exchanging weather thought and information on this blog to insert a pornographic link button. Nobody defending the action has any rational reason for defending it. The administration took the correct action.
Cant a stalled forntal boundary turn into a storm in the Bahamas...like Katrina?
benirica, it is likely this will be the pattern for the remainder of the season, although I geuss we could see some late season Carib storms or E coast systems that could effect the US. Still think it is unlikely. This seems like it will be a much needed year of rest for the US...
Dr. M isnt always right either
hello every one
if the bermuda high keeps strengthening like it has it will be a very different outcome than what we're expecting to happen, thats all im saying, and thats why the models are shifting west
the weather channel isnt always right, neither in the NHC
Posted By: StoryOfTheHurricane at 10:17 AM EDT on September 16, 2006.
Bermuda High is strengthening, we're looking at a more westward track. this could spell bad news guys.


This is what you said Story...Along with several other comments that could lead folks to think that Helene is now a threat to the US. lol.

the models is what got you in trouble this year.....this comes no where close to bermuda.......StormTop
I agree with story but on the precentages i would say 15-20% chance
exactly, i dont know why im getting attacked by StormJunkie for simply stating a possible prediction that is "outside the box". its happened before it will happen again. you cant predict the weather.
Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 7:33 AM PDT on September 16, 2006.

dont worry, Helene will most likely be a fish storm



oh well you stop saying that evere strom you see is call a fish storm i think you sould start watching this storm now and stop call it a fish storm
people can think what they want StormJunkie, still doesnt mean im not gonna say it, and yes, if the high builds, it COULD spell bad news. what a joke.
sj helene is not a threat to the us and that is WRITTEN IN STONE.....the reason why the computers have shifted a tad west is because the main canada trough will not be in the picture until tuesday then its beam me up scottie time for miss helene.....StormTop
Repeating the 1100 am ast position, 31.3 n, 53.7 w. Movement, stationary.
Maximum sustained winds, 75 mph. Minimum central pressure, 987 mb
Same old, same old. Someone posts their thoughts/opinion, someone posts a differing viewpoint and then it gets personal.
As many of you I enjoyed Rands humour and he is (or was) always willing to answer questions. His support of this site will be missed by many that are just learning. Buttons get mashed a lot in here by those that seem to try to start trouble. Rand did not start things but was quick to end them. I know we got to know each other through a disagreement and from that grew respect and friendship. I strongly hope that the administration reconsiders its banishment. If not then many will loose out on a good knowlegable source as many of you are on here. Ok enough said from me on that topic.
Wow - just catching up here on Rand getting banned from the site - I saw the button that he posted - didn't click on it - didn't occur to me to click on it - thought it was a joke as the banter was going on and on...too bad - I will miss his sense of humor.
thank u alley.... I think bermuda needs to watct his one...and if u follow the Gfs mayb even Puerto Rico.
1076. ricderr
this comes no where close to bermuda...alrighty...mr i am the greatest.....how close..or by your standards..how far will helene pass by bermuda?
StormJunkie just put me on block, i dont care what you have to say, you obviously dont care what i have to say, end of story, leave it at that. but dont attack me for simply stating an opinion, youre not nosradamus over here, we're not all bowing down to your every word.
gordon will die right where he is i mean fall to pieces like patsy kline says......
Posted By: StoryOfTheHurricane at 10:17 AM EDT on September 16, 2006.
Bermuda High is strengthening, we're looking at a more westward track. this could spell bad news guys.


This is not discussing possibilities Story. These are statements made with little understanding, intended to make folks think that this system will continue to move W right in to the US.

HR, The percentages of Helene getting past 65w before starting a NW movement are slim to none. Sometimes you can not predict the weather. Other times it is very predictable. I think this is one of the hardest things for folks to understand.
taz, it was in inside joke, thats what Mike Lyons (local met.) told me, just an iside joke
roman this is gordon advisory
Posted By: StormJunkie at 2:38 PM GMT on September 16, 2006.
Posted By: StoryOfTheHurricane at 10:17 AM EDT on September 16, 2006.
Bermuda High is strengthening, we're looking at a more westward track. this could spell bad news guys.

This is what you said Story...Along with several other comments that could lead folks to think that Helene is now a threat to the US. lol.


....but, evidently "StormJughead" is always right...gimme a break. Story's just giving his opinion like everyone else here. Give it a rest, pal.
The prudent thing to do is just state your opinion and don't pick on people...you know, most folks are smart enough to dicern BS and humble casts.

Yeah, it's likely to be a fish storm. Any Dumb_ss can see the likelyhood of that. Making a post about shifts isn't threatening to anyone...unless, you're just a freak scaredy cat -- and if that's the case shouldn't be in here anyway.

No one, really knows what these storms will do. Anything can still happen. They do tend to have a mind of their own. If one is just so smart, like you Jughead, then why couldn't you have gotten on TV last year and save all those people from dying in Katrina.

Your arrogance makes me wanna puke. Leave Story alone!
if anyone freaks out for saying this could spell bad news they need to take some Xanyx and learn to cope with their emotions.
ST, when did I say it was a threat to the US? Oh my bad, you are harrasing my 2% chance now? lol...

Story, "this could be bad" is not discussing...Do you understand that?

story you need and attitude check.........i agree with sj this storm wont come within 500 miles of bermuda and 1000 miles of the us mainland...so get out your dream world you are in.....StormTop
key word COULD!!!!!!!!!!! i didnt see this is going to spell bad news. COULD SPELL BAD NEWS. BIG difference.
thats update is for ...GORDON
oh ok.... well i will be on later
ST dont even get me started on you... lmao
Just checked the satellite and noticed quite a flair up in the southwestern caribbean. To those who really know this stuff - is this something to start watching or just a flair up?
sorry sj i thought you were following story........
Here we go again with the bickering. Have a nice day - I'm outta here. StormTop - you have NERVE telling everyone else to get an attitude check. Later.
ty moonlightcowboy, you the man! lol
St u took it to far how can u say it will past 500 miles away from bermuda........ well i dont care im leaving and will be back later
hurricane helene
Patsy Cline died in an airplane crash so that song is appropriate stormtop.
1097. catjojo
Rand, knew what he was doing when it come to weather.
But in my opinion, I have to agree with the many individuals who state this is not the forumn for pornography. Many users on this site rely on the advance notice for there well being and the well being of others. Many of us are in open office networks, using wireless in a public enviroment and could be terminated for clicking a pornogrphic link in error. I have to agree with the mediators on this one. Thank you for a job well done, let's stick to weather.....
~Jojo~
to clear up the obvious, i NEVER ONCE said anything about this thing going ANYWHERE NEAR the continental US, all i said is that if the Bermuda High keeps strengthening there is a possibility that it could spell bad news, and it is VERY VERY unlikely, but that does not mean its impossible to happen
lmao moonlight....

Go back and look again, I did what I could for the folks in NO using the means I had here on the WU. Took a lot of crap for posting a detailed article about the flooding and death that would occur if a storm were to strike NO. Get your story straight.

For the record, I do not claim to be a forecaster, and when I do throw out a forecast or two I am often wrong. But right now the climate just will not permit a what some of you want to discuss...Not trying to be a hardass, just hope folks can remain realistic.
IMHO,

2% = could

30% = could
story you are entitled to your opinions im just wondering how you expect to dispose of the strongesr cool front coming down from canada...i would be interested to hear this lol.....
1102. Gatorx
Where is Dr. Masters this morning...I am really looking forward to his analysis..I noticed some posts referring to him as Masters..I think we should use his title of Dr....I mean he earned it right?
Good morning folks... it seems a little quite this morning....by the way, if you want to talk to Randy he has his own blog up, saw it a few hours ago.


Hi Fanatic and SJ and the rest, So Helene is a hurricane now??? guess we really got to keep an eye on it.

Just checking in from work and will pop by as often as I can.

About posting links to "bad sites" that is uncalled for. When at work, I could be fired if I accidently opened up a site to one of our "forbidden" pages on the work computer. And all the playing around is just great, but this is Dr master's blog and should be mostly for weather. A lot of people have party or chatty blogs we can carry on in and keep this one sort of clean.

OK, sermon over. Have a great Saturday everyone!
Gams
I moved to the Texas coast last summer, so have only recently paid much attention to tropical storms. Is it normal for so many hurricanes to be hitting the Pacific coast of Mexico? I always thought it was pretty peaceful there. Weatherwise anyway.
i didnt mean to scare anyone, i DO NOT believe this will hit the US and I never once said that i thought this would happen, ive been calling Helene a fish storm since it was sitting next to Africa.
Taz: You're not going to be happy until a major hurricane hits the U.S., are you?
ST, I may not like your methods, but I can see the obvious...lol. Now I give it a little better chance of getting close to Bermuda then you, but not much.

Story what you were insinuating was quite obvious to anyone. "the models shifted W" "could be bad news" Include that with failure to mention the E shift in the Ukmet and the continued N movement of the GFDL. Not to mention the very clear fact that the high is very weak and it would take an extrodinary amount of strengthening to make a storm move W. Not to mention the very strong trough that will be moving off the E coast. The obivoous is there...

mel...lol you are right, but I'll let it slide this time since he was defending me...lol :)
story thats a statement you make when you try to get out of a question that was asked to you pal....im asking a plain question story how are you going to get read of the strongest cool front coming down on tuesday...i really dont think you know what you are talking about or you wouldnt have said such and ignorant statement.....Storm Top
Posted By: StormJunkie at 2:52 PM GMT on September 16, 2006.
lmao moonlight....

Go back and look again, I did what I could for the folks in NO using the means I had here on the WU. Took a lot of crap for posting a detailed article about the flooding and death that would occur if a storm were to strike NO. Get your story straight.


...no need for me to back and look at your Katrina post, StormJughead, I'm sure all your casts were absolutely accurate and perfect then. Any idiot could've said that about NOLA. But your weather genious, didn't do quite enough did it? Maybe you should go tour or something, start a fundraiser to support your own official casts, get your own tv show -- SJWC...lmao at ZERO personality.

What a shame Rand is gone!!!!
Point take SWLA, but I think you can see the way it was addressed was very west biased....with no regard given to the very likely potential for the N then NE movement that is all but certain.
1112. Gatorx
Weather 456 or Taz-

Is there an 11:00 update?
Wow... This blog is utterly useless... Too much fighting. Later... children.
lol you guys are pathetic ST and SJ, you are simply trying to take what i said into something its not, nothing is set in stone, and you make this blog a terrible place by attacking people for stating something that the NHC and Masters arent saying, and thats wrong, youre no better than anyone else so stop acting like you know everything.
moonlight, I don't forecast much. WHat is hard to understand about that. All I did last year was try to warn folks of how much flooding, destruction, and disease a NO storm would bring. It has been well known for many many years that NO is the worst place for a storm to hit.

Oh well, I geuss folks get angry when the "go west" crowd is not large enough...
WhatHurricane...good point, but its always the excitement that makes me come back for more
God, this is like an Elementary School yard.

Next thing you know, one of you will be saying, "I'm gonna go tell Admin. on you.....".
if those scenarios that you state do play out then i 100% agree with you, but its not like theres a 100% chance that those scenarios will play out so just drop it and watch what the storm does.
story you need to go west young man to learn more about the weather conditions that guide a storm apparently you dont know a thing if you think this is going to hit the US....StormTop
SJ- If you want to talk about me or to me please bring it to my blog. Not here.

lol am i the only one reading these attacks on me? have i ever once said this would hit the US?
Weather456s Tropical and Subtropical Weather Discussion for The North Atlantic Ocean and Surrounding Land Masses.............Western Periphery..
09/16/06
10:17:20 AM AST


A stationary front is currently draped across Southern Canada from Manitoba at 100W to The Atlantic Ocean at 50W. Along the front is a 1009mbar surface low located over the Strait of Belle Isle near 51N/58W. Moderate scattered T-Showers are seen all along the frontal system. Ahead of the front is a 1023mbar surface high, which dominates ridging for most of the Midwest Great Lakes Area, the NE U.S.A. And parts of the SE USA.

An upper level trough off the East Coast of the U.S.A. extends from south of Nova Scotia, Canada all the way to Florida, waning across the Gulf of Mexico and north of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Two upper level lows are along the trough, one, which is well define, is spinning over New Jersey/Delaware, while the other rather ill-define, weak and dry, sits off the Coastal Boundary between Florida and Georgia. With the exception of the first upper level low, the trough is accompanied by little or no convection due to very dry sinking polar air that came down behind the trough.

Ahead of the trough is a frontal boundary, extending from the Florida Keys and Northern Bahamas to near 40N/65W. Numerous showers and T-Storms are all along front spreading into the Northern Bahaman Islands, Southern Florida Peninsula, Florida Keys and the Western End of Cuba. There are three features along the front:

(A) A 1010mbar low along the frontal boundary off the East Coast of The United States, is located near 34N/74W. Quiksat pass revealed a well-defined closed circulation with winds of 20-25knots and a couple of buoys located near the low reported 20knot sustain winds. The low is almost void of all convection due to the immense sinking dry air behind the frontal boundary, and wind shear is very hostile, of about 40+ knots.

(B) A 1008mbar low is located near 39N/66W, will most likely become extra topical soon.

(C) A surface trough that was in the upper layers is accompanied by moderate to strong T-Storms, extending from 25N/75W to 31N/67.5W. Showers activity from the trough is spreading into the Central Bahaman Islands and more rain will be expected as the front begins to moves in.

A very strong upper air ridge extending across much of the Gulf Coast States and Gulf of Mexico, centered on a closed low over Central Mexico near 25N/100W, is helping to flow moisture in the from the Pacific Ocean and Hurricane Lane into Eastern Mexico and some parts of the Gulf of Mexico, leading to spotty showers over the area.

A weak upper level trough extends from Eastern Cuba, across the NW Caribbean Sea to Belize is also causing some convective showers over the Cayman Islands and the Mexican Peninsula.

A tropical wave has moved inland over Nicaragua, bringing isolated strong T-Showers.

Another wave along 73W, is interacting with the upper level trough to its north to produced scattered T-Showers over Jamaica and Cayman Islands, and interacting with the ITCZ to its south to produce strong scattered T-Showers over Costa Rico, Panama, Northern Colombia and some parts of Easter Venezuela.

Much of the Eastern Caribbean Sea from 70W will be limited in cloud cover and convective activity due large amounts of dry Saharan Dust, being channeled into the area by an upper air ridge to the north. Hazy skies with reduce visibility is expect over the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

By Weather456
1124. Gatorx
Thank you 456
Story, all I was trying to say is that your first two posts in here this morning were about the W movement of Helene, with no metnion of the most likely scenario...

Now you even say you agree with what I am saying, but your first few posts showed total disregard for the reality of the situation. Look at the WV, look at all levels of the models, and most improtantly go with the NHC, they do pretty good all things considered.
SJ. Opinions are like noses...we all have them and they all smell. Story is entitled to his opinion and you yours. My biggest problem is not his perceived alarmistness, but your, his and ST's tendency to get personal with the rebuttals. I don't understand why so often a good discussion has to degrade to personal attacks.
Gatorx, Yeah
000
WTNT33 KNHC 161453
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 16 2006

...HELENE BECOMES THE FOURTH HURRICANE OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.6 WEST OR ABOUT 1145 MILES
...1845 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HELENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...18.8 N...45.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/LANDSEA
ray you got those toes done last night...i hope you used a nice color lol....have a great day ray no chance of a hurricane hitting your area for the next week.....you can rest east stormtop is on the job sweety....
There is great chances this will be a fish storm, but still threatens Bermuda and possible East Coast of the US. This is not certain, but the models have been jumping at this time, with the NOGAPS and UKMET jumping more to the east and the GFS, and GFDL shifting to the west and south as pointed out by the 11am discussion. The fact is this is still three to four days away until the aforementioned trough comes down and takes it away to the north and east. Now until this happens everyone has a chance to see what they see and until Tuesday as the trough is forecasted by the Models to take her away Helene remains a threat. Helene is currently strengthening at a pretty good clip. You can see on visible that she has tried to close off an eye wall and she needs a little more convection on the south and southeast sides of her to begin a gradual increase in strength. Now dependent on how fast the trough and helene meet, is the difference in intensity of a category one or a category three major hurricane, as for now major cane status does not seem likely, but any decrease in wind shear in the next three to four days can make for conducive conditions for rapid strengthening and category three status would not be out of the question.
1132. Melagoo
Look at ShanShan

ShanShan
(B) A 1008mbar low is located near 39N/66W, will most likely become extra topical soon.

Sub Tropical Storm Issac?
1134. Gatorx
456-

From what you posted last evening do you see any significant changes?
1135. code1
Can't wait for season to be over with!!! Hurry and update Dr. M, please. Your blog needs a good cleaning.
Posted By: STORMTOP at 3:09 PM GMT on September 16, 2006.

ray you got those toes done last night...i hope you used a nice color lol....have a great day ray no chance of a hurricane hitting your area for the next week.....you can rest east stormtop is on the job sweety....


StormTop written in stone? save some stone for us. And for the enviroment.
1137. franck
If anyone wants to find someone to interact with socially, to view clothed or unclothed or to rub themselves against, a bar or a church could be recommended. My question is, why a weather blog?
1138. Broward
I think maybe Randrewl ate him some of that there bag spinach and got dehydrated and couldn't think quite clearly
i didnt say i agreed with you SJ, i never said anything outside of what NHC and Masters are saying, i just said this could play out differently given certain circumstances
456-
Post a pic for the 1008 low
moonlight, I never said anyone was doin anything in there pants. What I said is that Story's first few posts were in regard to the most unlikely scenario...With no regard for the most likely. You can not dispute that.

No harm no fouls Rays, someone wondered why I thought it was somewhat comical that Rand got you to go to my site. I explained. Really no harm meant :).
hello
ST- Didn't get them done but think that I am will today.
hi Hellsniper223
SJ a tornado COULD hit your house tomorrow, doesnt mean it will or it is likely to, but it COULD, leave it at that.
SWLA, have I been calling any names in here? Or have ai just been disputing the "Go West" scenario?
1008 Low?

is that the one?
Gatorx, The only thing that has change much is Helene's intensity (its now a hurricane)....

the trough have not moved much, and there is still a large area of Sharan Dust ahead of Helene.....

So this map is still valid (except for the "TS" part....(I'll make a new one today)


No story it could not, there is a great big high pressure sitting over my house for the next couple of days. Sometimes weatehr is ver unpredictable, but soemtimes it is very predictable....
SJ- I went to your site as I had pushed the button that is the ONLY reason that I went there.
I have www.allweathrfriends.com and www.weathercore.com
To go to. I have your site to go to but I choice not to go there. I have others.

This was between me and ST last night and no one else.

Thanks ST. :-)
We understand each other. Love YA ST.
Story -I for one appreciate that fact that you state the fact that their is a slight chance it could hit the east coast .I do not take it to be a fact but if there is a remote chance i keep lurking here .My company does emergency repair work to hospitals roof upon storm arrivals.We were in NO for 13 days living on a roof placed by helicopters.So if there is a chance this gives me time to prep and close up my personal properties.None of us what surprises.It is better to plan then not be prepaired.Keep up the good work all of you it is appreciated.
This time, stormtop is right about Helene not hitting the USA. A deep trough is forecast to move off the east coast Tuesday night. It is as straightforward as can be.

Helene could head west of Bermuda if it gets left behing by the first trough though
hey Rays, my girl is a nail tech...If you need a hand, they may look better then if you let ST do them... :)
i think Helene will move east of Florence, but west of Gordon
or do you mean Alec?
ty JustCoasting, but i really do not believe there is much of a chance of a US landfall either, but yes there is a small chance. the little kids ST and SJ are just blowing what ive said way out of proportion, they need to grow up.
Right Rays, and i explained why you choose not to go there...No har No foul...
1158. Gatorx
Thank you 456- I did not think there was much change but I just wanted to verify with someone smarter than me!
Sj- might take you up on that as long as you come no where near them. LOL

SJ- we are cool but please remember when I come in here and say something to ST. It is between him and I.
St and I go far back and we know each other.
Thanks SJ.
1161. code1
SJ, come on. Be a man. Get over it and let it go!! You say you want harmony? What a joke. You want harmony as long as it is your harmony. She doesn't need your girl, I went to nail tech school, so that I could work hours on my time to put my daughter and myself through college. If she needs a pro, I can still do it! ST likes painted nails, so what? I've painted my own for him. LOL
Hmm... Lets see... I think It'll Keep going north for the next... 6-12 hours then shift to the west and then to the wsw before turning north again... Possibly bring some rain to Puerto rico and the northern islands, and then bringing some wind/rain to Bramuda. The dammage to bramuda will depend on how far south it sinks before the ridge is eroded enough for it to creep wnw to nnw and then back to the Ne.
I agree they want to be the perfect caster .I
respect that but we have got to look at all the possibles .That is why the track these things.And update a few times a day.Just like the nhc it is good to discuss daily not fight about it .It is not a contest .Although there are a small few opions i respcet here.Unforuntaly they are all arguing at this time
Rays, I have no idea what was the deal with you and ST last night. SWLA just wondered why I found irony in you going to my site. I explained it the best I could and as honestly as I could...Notice the link I also placed in that reply...

I don't think bramuda is out of danger.
ST and SJ are just childish little kids that cant accept any opinion that is not their own, and become defensive and arrogant when things are said that they dont agree with. No one should ever listen to these incompetents.
1167. code1
I've made my own dirt here, so will leave, and go salute the GOM. Hopefully, the main blog will get back to what it was meant for. I must remember to only read those in the know....not to post.
CyberTeddy:

Good lord code, I was just having a little fun...My girl really is a nail tech, and if I am ever in the area and Rays wants them done I would hold true to the offer....
Helene is a full degree of latitude further north than the 24 hour forecast said it would be yesterday @ 11 a.m.
Hells...bramuda...Is that the site that got Rand in trouble? lol
It was a long week, I was tired last night and I shut down early. Just now catching up.

There's no excuse for posting porno links, even as a joke. I'm no prude, by all means, but there are minors on here, some younger than 14 or 15, despite what some of you seem to think. And not all parents are diligent about using parental controls. There are also adults that are offended by such things and folks at work that could easily get reprimanded, put on suspension or fired, by inadvertently clicking on such a link.

Sadly, Rand didn't think about the consequences of his actions ahead of time. Admin was correct in banning him, or anyone else, that does such on WU. Just wish they would act as promptly in other scenarios I've seen on WU.
1173. code1
Good SJ, fun is good! Bye
Omg... Wow... I guess I'm not going to post those porno links I've been wanting to show y'all...
I'm new to this blog and thought it would be fun to follow along in the WEATHER RELATED interactive chat. I read the admin notice where it kindly explains to refrain from posting non weather related topics (like whining and crying and name calling, etc...). I guess that notice is like the sign that says "10 items or less" at the grocery store. It's a good idea, but never enforced.

Some of you are smart, intelligent and postinteresting weather discussion. It's just hard to sort through the crap ( I know my post will have little or no effect, but for those who supply good stuff, keep it up)
weather456 what is that you see? or any one
lol
1177. nash28
How in the hell did Rand get banned from here, but the hateful trolls get a free pass??
Linked pron site in jest....Got banned, as I think he knew would happen.
1180. Melagoo
Mexico getting buzzed by Lane WOW!

Lane
That's what I mean, Nash.
if youre not going to discuss even the unlikely scenarios of the storm's path, why dont you just read Master's blog and the NHC site and be done with it, theres no need for discussion if you think NHC/Masters are going to be dead on every single time.
Sorry ken, we are much more focused when there are actuall Atlantic storm threatening land...Sorry again.
Taz, its a wave along the ITCZ:

Another wave along 73W, is interacting with the upper level trough to its north to produced scattered T-Showers over Jamaica and Cayman Islands, and interacting with the ITCZ to its south to produce strong scattered T-Showers over Costa Rico, Panama, Northern Colombia and some parts of Easter Venezuela.
1185. Melagoo
I image the surfing was crazy there obviously not now though
Story, not every time...That is the whole point, but this time it is pretty evident that they are correct.

Sometimes the weather is very unpredictable, other times it is very predictable...Learning to tell the difference is very hard...
1187. Melagoo
opps! imagine LOL
1189. nash28
Ah, I see.
Thanks Junkie...I'll stay tuned
Hurricane Helene:

ihave27windows you must not have been reading all of the attacks against me that led to these comments, i wouldnt have said them if they werent called for, and any person with any common sense would agree with me there.
That is something Mel. Amazing the stucture is holding together so well so close to land.
Weather456 what way is that wave moveing and dos it have a ch
Not lowering myself to your level. Goodbye.
lol Story.
lets just drop this, its a stupid argument, i never said anything that you are claiming i said and its all blown out of proportion, i simply stated there is a small possibility at the forecast being further west, and the possibility of that spelling trouble, and i still stand by this belief, however, i do believe that it will be a fish storm, but with a possibility of something different occurring, ENOUGH SAID!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Ok, y'all I am out. I will see y'all later.
Tazmanian, west into Panama/Costa Rico, and it has little chance due to its location (its near landmasses)
uuuggh, arggh....trying to patiently wait for the good Dr., or someone's direction to Rand's blog, too(por favor).

Windows, I don't care how many windows you have. I think I have that many in my foyer. As far as attacks, sure you bet, when someone is unduly picking up and twisting what someone else said...and btw, didn't say with arrogance.

Uuuuummmm, take your "kumabaya" and well, you know what you can do with it.

Story, man, no use trying to reason with this s__t. Later man.
1201. hazmat
Highlights from the 11 disco...moving NW near 14mph...max sustained winds @ 75mph w/higher gusts...platueau of intensity around 72hrs...slight weakening thereafter...on SW side of deep-layer ridge & headed towards break in ridge which is partially produced by Gordon...GIV research mission enroute as part of Salex Experiment.

Great to watch Helene form from afar.
TS Helene

1205. nash28
Has the fighting continued from last night?
Good day to you Nash hows it going.
1208. hazmat
On another note,,,how about you GUYS continue your fight off the board. It's been what an hr now? Just when I think there's hope this place goes to hell in a handbasket real quick...shame it has the potential to be right up there with some of the other, better, message boards but this "mine is bigger than yours" really brings the place down.

Flame away...doesn't matter at this point...you know there used to be a bunch of pros that would come here...they're gone now...imagine that.
1211. nash28
Hey sandcrab. Well, looks like some crazy stuff happened on here after I left last night.

I got my ass chomped off in the morning on here and then Rand gets banned.

If it weren't for the NHC, you'd never know we still had Helene to deal with...
When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged as Spam and ignored
new blog
Nash, I understand it has gone crazy. I shure wish Rand had not been banned. I have seen worse than that on here without any action taken. Whats your take in the new blob just off of the Cape?
No need to tell taz...story u do keep bringing it up like on ur last 6 post..... umentioned something about the arguement and st and sj stopped it a while ago.....
Posted By: magicfan1423 at 10:53 AM EST on September 16, 2006.
disagree, arguing just makes you look like an A**.


I agree... maybe you should just drop it... Let people do as they please... Lmao.. You're just invigorating the situation.
NEW BLOG GUYS.
god magicsfan lol ur mean. . but i see ur point
look at Bob Dylan's picture? lol you are something else MagicFan...HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHA
now im getting told to drop it when ive been the one telling ST and SJ to drop it, its been dropped because i had to continue to clear up what i said because they obviously didnt understand what i meant, just let it go.
its obvious magic is leaving to continue his work as a janitor.. lol
if you all care there is a NEW BLOG
who cares? this place is a zoo. im going to FLAHurricane where they know what they're talking about
Why is it that people have such a hard time using blogs for the topics for which they are intended? What a waste of space...taken from people who are truly interested in having intelligent discussions on the topics presented.
Hello everybody. I'm new here, so I'm gonna introduce myself somehow: I live in Romania, and my hobbyes are the meteorology and everything concernes about that. So, I observed that if a hurricane reaches or not the US coast, it affects dramaticaly our weather. If a hurricane makes a "landing", our clime is warm and most of all clear. But if not, we have a really ugly weather, and this year I counted in nearby 3 tornadoes, due to a massive condensations of oceanic water vapors that condences over mountains...
So, from here, I am monitoring the tropical activity and I see that Gordon is in route to Europe, and it is possible to track Hellen after him too. If that so, we're gonna have a bad winter, with a lot of snow, but not so cold like past years when it doesn't snow a bit. Am I right?