WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Otto transitioning to a tropical storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:35 PM GMT on October 07, 2010

Subtropical Storm Otto, the 15th named storm of this very busy 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Otto is not a threat to bring high winds to any land areas, but will produce heavy rains over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and northern Lesser Antilles. Radar estimated rainfall over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (Figure 2) shows rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches have fallen in several locations over the past three days, and the St. Thomas Airport officially recorded 9.30" of rain so far from Otto. Not surprisingly, Flash Flood Warnings are posted for both the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Weather radar out of Puerto Rico shows that a large area of heavy rain will continue to affect the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico today. Martinique radar shows considerably less activity over the Lesser Antilles.


Figure 1. NASA MODIS image of Subtropical Storm Otto taken at 12:55pm EDT October 6, 2010.

Satellite loops show Otto's heaviest thunderstorms lie in two bands to the south, many hundreds of miles from the storm's center. This is characteristic of a subtropical storm, which is a hybrid between a tropical storm and an extratropical storm. An upper level low pressure system over Otto has pumped cold, dry air aloft into the storm, keeping it from being fully tropical. However, the upper low is weakening, and Otto has recently developed a burst of heavy thunderstorms near its center, and very tropical storm-like spiral bands are now developing to the east and south of Otto's center. Otto is fast becoming fully tropical, and will be called Tropical Storm Otto later today. The storm's newly developing spiral bands will mostly stay offshore, but a few heavy rain showers capable of dumping 1 - 2 inches of rain may affect the Turks and Caicos Islands today, as well as the northern Dominican Republic. The heavier rains in Otto's old rain band over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands will continue to dump flooding rains in those locations through tonight. Steering currents favor Otto being lifted northwards and then northeastwards out to sea by Friday. Given the very warm waters of 28 - 29°C and low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots today, Otto may approach hurricane strength before high wind shear in excess of 20 knots impacts the storm Friday night.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Tropical Storm Otto over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands shows that rains in excess of eight inches (white colors) have fallen in many regions. The strange ray-like pattern to the east of the radar location (the white "+" symbol) is due to mountains blocking the radar beam.

Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather has formed in the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles west of Jamaica. The disturbance has a moderate area of intense thunderstorms that brought close to two inches of rain to Grand Cayman Island over the past day. The disturbance is under a high 15 - 25 knots of wind shear, and is not likely to develop significantly today. The disturbance is headed south at 10 - 15 mph, and will bring heavy rains to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua over the next two days. None of the models develop the disturbance, but it does have some potential for slow development beginning on Friday when it will be off the coast of Nicaragua, in a region of lower wind shear and higher moisture. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday.

Monsoon flooding kills 139 in Asia
Heavy monsoon rains triggered flash flooding in a remote section of Indonesia this week that killed at least 91 people and left 100 more missing. In Vietnam, heavy rains of up to 51" (1300 mm) have fallen since Friday, resulting in river flooding that killed at least 48 people, with 23 people still missing. Over 34,000 people are homeless from the floods, which hit five provinces from Nghe An to Thua Thien-Hue, a swath of territory starting some 300 km (180 miles) south of Hanoi and stretching south. Heavy monsoon rains of up to seven inches over the past week have also hit nearby Hainen Island in China. The resulting flooding was the worst in 50 years there, and killed one person and forced the evacuation of 55 villages with 213,000 people.

Press
I've been a subscriber for several years to NewScientist magazine, a weekly science news magazine that does a great job staying abreast of all the latest breaking science happenings. This week's October 4 issue features a 4-page section on Extreme Weather that I wrote for them as part of their "Instant Expert" series. If you haven't ever seen the magazine, I enthusiastically recommend taking a look.

If you're a fan of the geek humor xkcd webcomic, see if you can find me on the hilarious map of the "blogosphere" on comic artist Randall Munroe's latest xkcd comic. I like the disparity between my influence in September vs. March, but thought I should have been closer to the "Bay of Flame!" I also appeared in a mouse "rollover" text box in an xkcd comic during the Gulf oil disaster earlier this year.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting pvbeachbum:


I think you are right Cat5 - I just added my location to my personal blog - maybe that will make me show up...

If it doesn't at the moment, wait about 20 minutes. It may be a lag time just like when you upload a photo....
Well, I've been to webpages where a small windows tells me, where I'm located.... It's a service you pay to identify people accesing your site....
Quoting pvbeachbum:
Interesting list - I have been on this blog since 2005, but didn't appear on the list with my town and state...wonder how they get the info?

My 10PM CDT Blog Update On TS Otto, take a look folks, thanks: Link
As of 11PM, Otto's ACE stands at .75, meaning he's already been a more energetic storm than Bonnie, Gaston, or--of course--Nicole. His ACE should pass that of Hermine and Matthew tomorrow, and he's got a shot at passing Colin as well if he can hang around until Saturday morning. Not that he's a powerhouse, mind you; he's still accumulated just 1/56th the energy Igor did.

Anyway, with that tidbit out of the way, here's the current season visual:

Man, this trough on the GFS@138


With high shear present, this could be the Peninsula's first active front.

Soon there will be an eye....
Quoting sunlinepr:
Soon there will be an eye....


Not where you think it will be.

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
It's true Neapolitan

Rainfall Oct 1 to Oct 7, 2005: 23.18"
Rainfall Jan 1 to Oct 7, 2010: 22.49"


I may have used the wrong word; I didn't mean "incredible" as in non-credible; I meant it as a synonym for "amazing"... :-)
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Man, this trough on the GFS@138


With high shear present, this could be the Peninsula's first active front.

That is one potent front. I noticed that on the earlier (12Z) run...
I knew what you meant Neapolitan, but I didn't know if others would ;)
Quoting Neapolitan:
As of 11PM, Otto's ACE stands at .75, meaning he's already been a more energetic storm than Bonnie, Gaston, or--of course--Nicole. His ACE should pass that of Hermine and Matthew tomorrow, and he's got a shot at passing Colin as well if he can hang around until Saturday morning. Not that he's a powerhouse, mind you; he's still accumulated just 1/56th the energy Igor did.

Anyway, with that tidbit out of the way, here's the current season visual:


That graphic is awesome! LOL
Quoting Bordonaro:

Orca is getting all your rain and mine too!!
Come to Puerto Rico and you get all the rain you need!
GFDL 850 hPa Vorticity & Vertical Motion


HWRF 850 hPa Vorticity & Vertical Motion
Quoting jurakantaino:
Come to Puerto Rico and you get all the rain you need!
How much did you guys get down there...like over 10 inches??
517. JRRP
?
Quoting Floodman:


Thank you sir...a discerning man, to be certain...LOL


And you, sir, are a hard man. A hard man indeed.
it sure looks like a low is forming in the SW Carib

StS.Otto
7Oct 03amGMT - - 23.5n68.2w - - 65mph - - - - 990mb -- NHC.Adv. #4
7Oct 06amGMT - - 23.5n68.2w - - 55knots - - - 990mb -- NHC-ATCF
7Oct 09amGMT - - 23.6n68.2w - - 60mph - - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#5
7Oct 12pmGMT - - 23.6n68.3w - - 50knots - - - 992mb -- NHC-ATCF
TS.Otto
7Oct 03pmGMT - - 23.8n68.0w - - 60mph - - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#6
7Oct 06pmGMT - - 23.6n67.9w - - 50knots - - - 992mb -- NHC-ATCF
7Oct 09pmGMT - - 24.0n67.6w - - 60mph - - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#7
8Oct 12amGMT - - 23.8n67.1w - - 50knots - - - 992mb -- NHC-ATCF
8Oct 03amGMT - - 24.1n66.6w - - 60mph - - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv. #8
65mph=~104.6km/h __ 55knots=~63.3mph=~101.9km/h
60mph=~96.6km/h __ 50knots=~57.5mph=93.6km/h
MaximumSustainedWind speeds are rounded to the nearest 5mph or to the nearest 5knots

Copy&paste 23.5n68.2w, 23.5n68.2w, 23.6n68.2w, 23.6n68.3w, 23.8n68.0w-23.6n67.9w, 23.6n67.9w-24.0n67.6w, 24.0n67.6w-23.8n67.1w, 23.8n67.1w-24.1n66.6w, bqn into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours.

The abrupt zig-zagging is most likely due to disagreement about center positions between those who put together the NHC.ADV. and those who put together the NHC-ATCF
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
it sure looks like a low is forming in the SW Carib


You are 100% correct!
522. JLPR2
Jeez, I thought we were out of the woods with Otto, I was horribly wrong. :\



Close to 40 roads have been closed in PR, with mudslides, down trees, several rivers are at flood stage or above it, some families are at shelters and the worse part is it isn't over.
*This is primarily in the south side of the island.
Quoting JLPR2:
Jeez, I thought we were out of the woods with Otto, I was horribly wrong. :\



Close to 40 roads have been closed in PR, with mudslides, down trees, several rivers are at flood stage or above it, some families are at shelters and the worse part is it isn't over.
*This is primarily in the south side of the island.


Best Wishes down there.

It's astounding how much Otto's canopy has ballooned the past few hours.


Long way to go...
Evening all,

I have posted a very detailed look at Otto, I think this storm has been interesting to a lot. If you are confused as to why Otto has done what it has, hopefully you can find some answers and learn something new tonight through the study of Otto on my post.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Soon there will be an eye....


Inside Joke between you and me:

At least it won't be a 400-mile diameter eye, LOL.

Just Kidding :)
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Best Wishes down there.

It's astounding how much Otto's canopy has ballooned the past few hours.


Yeah, 100% agree. Otto's upper structure has done a complete 180 in the last several hours that has allowed it to do this. The upper low over Otto that was once suppressing its convection has now been overtaken by the upper trough approaching Otto from the west. Now, Otto is free to breath aloft, no more upper low capping the convection.
Looking for YTD data or current rainfall in PR.... this is the only data I've got.... anyone knows any link?? (Snowfall???)

Season Weather Averages for Luis Munoz Marin International (TJSJ)
I think Otto has the potential not only to become a hurricane, but potentially a 115mph major hurricane!
Quoting sunlinepr:
Looking for YTD data or current rainfall in PR.... this is the only data I've got.... anyone knows any link?? (Snowfall???)


Climate change my friend.

Pun intended.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Inside Joke between you and me:

At least it won't be a 400-mile diameter eye, LOL.

Just Kidding :)


Well, yesterday someone wrote that in extra tropical systems the eye is not in the center of the storm, but that the strenght is in the outside.... So I will be checking Otto, for when it reaches 400 miles ....
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think Otto has the potential not only to become a hurricane, but potentially a 115mph major hurricane!


Still looks like a weak tropical storm to me on Satellite, no budding eye feature, shear present.
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think Otto has the potential not only to become a hurricane, but potentially a 115mph major hurricane!


Are you serious or joking? IMO, I wouldn't have anything in my gut telling me that. Don't see the sea-surface temps in the future or wind shear levels supporting something that strong.
17L/T.S./O/CX
MARK
24.55N/65.66W
Quoting sunlinepr:


Well, yesterday someone wrote that in extra tropical systems the eye is not in the center of the storm, but that the strenght is in the outside.... So I will be checking Otto, for when it reaches 400 miles ....


I have always wondered why extratropical systems have max strength not at the center. Never could find a good answer on that one. Hmmm...
538. JRRP

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
17L/T.S./O/CX
MARK
24.55N/65.66W


Wow wow wow, phew! Otto's canopy is freakin' blowin up in size in those last few sat. loop frames. Again, wow! Storms like Otto are cool to watch.
540. JRRP
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
17L/T.S./O/CX
MARK
24.55N/65.66W

near hurricane status
o may make it to a cat 1 maybe 2 but nothing more
we wait for next couple of sat images to come to see if presentation is holding or improving may be cat one soon
Quoting JRRP:

near hurricane status


I'm gonna need that. In my final paragraph of my blog post, I predicted Otto will become a hurricane. Not might, but will.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we wait for next couple of sat images to come to see if presentation is holding or improving may be cat one soon


Yeah, thinking cat one later on the 8th. But by 5 AM, probably will still be tropical storm Otto, but a stronger tropical storm Otto.
Quoting cat5hurricane:
How much did you guys get down there...like over 10 inches??
13 inches in some locations and it still coming...losts of damages, bridges colapsing, land slides etc.
Seems like SSTs are still 27-28C, maybe cooler when it passes 38N

He's going to stay most of the time below 38N...

Link
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
DEPRESSION BOB02-2010
5:30 AM IST October 8 2010
======================================

Subject: Depression Over Northwest Bay Of Bengal

At 0:00 AM UTC, Depression BOB02-2010 over west central & adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal moved northeastwards and lays centered over northwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 20.0N and 86.5Em or close to Paradeep.

The current environmental condition and numerical weather prediction models suggest that the system would move in north northeasterly direction and cross West Bengal coast near Sagar Island later this afternoon
NOW it's really raining heavy in Caguas...

Getting better aligned however, shear is still evident.

552. Relix
Finally!! The expected rain!!
Dry Air from W reaching Otto

Quoting Neapolitan:
As of 11PM, Otto's ACE stands at .75, meaning he's already been a more energetic storm than Bonnie, Gaston, or--of course--Nicole. His ACE should pass that of Hermine and Matthew tomorrow, and he's got a shot at passing Colin as well if he can hang around until Saturday morning. Not that he's a powerhouse, mind you; he's still accumulated just 1/56th the energy Igor did.

Anyway, with that tidbit out of the way, here's the current season visual:



I want the poster :)
555. JLPR2
And it continues, almost all of the south now with 8+ inches on radar estimates.

Good sat. pics here
Link

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI OCT 8 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM OTTO...LOCATED ABOUT 575 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA.

1. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN
Nacera Paulita??? Lo averiguare tomorow

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
DEPRESSION BOB02-2010
8:30 AM IST October 8 2010
======================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Depression BOB02-2010 over west central Bay of Bengal moved north northeastward and lays centered over northwest Bay of Bengal near 21.0N 87.5E, or about 90 kms southeast of Balasore, 90 kms south of Digha, and 300 kms southwest of Khepupara.

The current environmental conditions and numerical weather prediction models suggest that the system would move northeastward and cross West Bengal/Bangladesh coast near 89.0E, about 100 kms east of Sagar Island this afternoon.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with a minimum central pressure of 998 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the system's center.

Satellite imagery indicates shear pattern. The Dvorak intensity is T1.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection lies over north Bay of Bengal. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -70C in association with the system.

Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is moderate to high (20-30 knots). There is negative 24 hours tendency of vertical wind shear to the nroth of the system's center. The system lies to the north of upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 18.0N. The ocean heat content over the north Bay of Bengal and interaction of the system with the land surface are not favorable for intensification.
What is the reason for greater thunderstorm activity over the ocean during the night?

I know it has something to do with the temperature differences, but if someone could please explain thoroughly and clearly exactly the process, that would be great.
I am the owl
...OTTO STRENGTHENING AT IT ACCELERATES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...
5:00 AM AST Fri Oct 8
Location: 24.8°N 65.5°W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: ENE at 14 mph
Min pressure: 986 mb
He's looking much better than he did a few hours ago.



Can just see Otto appearing at the bottom of the picture.
08/0545 UTC 24.7N 65.6W T4.0/4.0 OTTO -- Atlantic

SAB supports Hurricane status.
you guys know a heck of a lot more about weather than i do so what does that round convection south of Cuba look like? what do you all think it could do in the days and weeks to come?
Quoting sunlinepr:
Looking for YTD data or current rainfall in PR.... this is the only data I've got.... anyone knows any link?? (Snowfall???)


The NWS's local climate pages are excellent. They only ever show info from midnight or so, so anything that's happened since then won't be reflected, but they're still an excellent source:

1) Go to the NWS San Juan page;
2) Select a location;
3) Select a timeframe;
4) Click 'Go'

Everything you want to know.
568. IKE
The ultimate road block....

IMO- Hurricane Otto at 11.
Quoting IKE:
The ultimate road block....


Definitely. Now if we could just get it to promise to stick around for another seven weeks or so, we really could proclaim the season as over for the CONUS. Of course, the hundreds of wildfires throughout the southeast by then would pose a problem of a different kind...

Personally, I'd rather take the risk of a landfalling storm than a fire-starting, crop-killing, water-rationing drought. Not that either one is much fun...
Quoting IKE:
The ultimate road block....


Wow...great shot
hey ike you these insurance companies have a leg to stand on wanting to raise insurance prices again for wind and hail in the coastal communities.2 years now and absolutely nothing of consequence for the conus.Got to go meetings for my people start early.Also have a feeling thier will be someone come on here and post its not over yet the models predict the mojo to do this or that lol.This high pressure and dry air you posted is forecast to stick around at least for the next two weeks,acording to the forecast ive been reading and Ike have a blessed day.
StS.Otto
7Oct 03amGMT - - 23.5n68.2w - - 65mph - - - - 990mb -- NHC.Adv. #4
7Oct 06amGMT - - 23.5n68.2w - - 55knots - - - 990mb -- NHC-ATCF
7Oct 09amGMT - - 23.6n68.2w - - 60mph - - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#5
7Oct 12pmGMT - - 23.6n68.3w - - 50knots - - - 992mb -- NHC-ATCF
TS.Otto
7Oct 03pmGMT - - 23.8n68.0w - - 60mph - - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#6
7Oct 06pmGMT - - 23.7n67.8w - - 50knots - - - 992mb -- NHC-ATCF *23.6n67.9w
7Oct 09pmGMT - - 24.0n67.6w - - 60mph - - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#7
8Oct 12amGMT - - 23.9n67.0w - - 55knots - - - 992mb -- NHC-ATCF *23.8n67.1w
8Oct 03amGMT - - 24.1n66.6w - - 60mph - - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv. #8
8Oct 06amGMT - - 24.4n66.1w - - 60knots - - - 989mb -- NHC-ATCF
8Oct 09amGMT - - 24.8n65.5w - - 70mph - - - - 986mb -- NHC.Adv. #8
50knots=~57.5mph=93.6km/h __ 60mph=~96.6km/h
55knots=~63.3mph=~101.9km/h __ 65mph=~104.6km/h
60knots=~69mph=~111.1km/h __ 70mph=~112.7km/h
MaximumSustainedWind speeds are rounded to the nearest 5mph or to the nearest 5knots

Copy&paste 23.5n68.2w-23.6n68.2w, 23.6n68.2w-23.8n68.0w, 23.8n68.0w-24.0n67.6w, 24.0n67.6w-24.1n66.6w, 24.1n66.6w-24.8n65.5w, bqn, 23.5n68.2w-23.6n68.3w, 23.6n68.3w-23.7n67.8w, 23.7n67.8w-23.9n67.0w, 23.9n67.0w-24.4n66.1w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 30hours.

The "fish on the line" is due to separate plottings of NHC.ADV. coordinates and of the NHC-ATCF coordinates, superimposed upon one another,

to reflect the apparent disagreement on center positions between those responsible for the ATCF and those responsible for the Advisory.
First visible satellite image of Otto:


I would say Otto will become a hurricane today, note the wheel spoke pattern of upper level outflow which is indicative of a strong tropical cyclone. Also very cold cloud tops shooting up from the center.
575. IKE
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
hey ike you these insurance companies have a leg to stand on wanting to raise insurance prices again for wind and hail in the coastal communities.2 years now and absolutely nothing of consequence for the conus.Got to go meetings for my people start early.Also have a feeling thier will be someone come on here and post its not over yet the models predict the mojo to do this or that lol.This high pressure and dry air you posted is forecast to stick around at least for the next two weeks,acording to the forecast ive been reading and Ike have a blessed day.


Models aren't doing much in the western Caribbean...NOGAPS...CMC...latest ECMWF...GFS.

Otto may be it for a while if those models verify.

SE USA looks bone dry the next 7-10 days.

MJO....



IKE, I can't drink enough water to keep up with this dry weather. I feel like the shrivled up tree frog I found in the florida room last night. OH and I found the first scorpion of the season in the house last night. Forget squirrels!
577. IKE
Quoting WeatherMum:
IKE, I can't drink enough water to keep up with this dry weather. I feel like the shrivled up tree frog I found in the florida room last night. OH and I found the first scorpion of the season in the house last night. Forget squirrels!


It is dry. I don't see any change for at least a week and a half.
.............................................

***MJO focused in the ATL because that's where all of the heat is focused in 2010. If it leaves it will come back.***....

Nope...wrong.

***Pattern change coming in 7-10 days***....

Nope. For the last 3 months.

ike they can argue all they want call you a downcaster or whatever nonsense.actually you were a truthcaster who did a hell of a lot better job than these so called weather experts on this blog.I will once again point out the obivous, masters is the only expert on this blog.WEatherguy also but he rarely post anymore.After this season of as the blog turns who can blame him.
579. IKE
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
ike they can argue all they want call you a downcaster or whatever nonsense.actually you were a truthcaster who did a hell of a lot better job than these so called weather experts on this blog.I will once again point out the obivous, masters is the only expert on this blog.WEatherguy also but he rarely post anymore.After this season of as the blog turns who can blame him.


I'm just an amateur who is wrong a lot. But if I was doing this for a living...as a career...I wouldn't be saying things on here I wasn't sure of..or I would phrase it in a way where I admit, I could be wrong.
Morning folks.
Shields are still up! Way up!
Good Morning.
Beautiful morning here.
77F, but humidity at 95% at the Airport...
Does not feel like that at all.
The "Glob" to the east of here looks like it will pass north of us, and fair weather will continue.

The floods in Puerto Rico sound bad....
14" of rain and still coming down.
3 days out



6 days out

Good morning. Still extremely overcast in Cayman with intermittent rain. Temp is already 81F with 80% humidity. Winds are 20-25mph pressure @1008 mb.
Good Morning...
Here is an interesting one...

From the BBC yesterday, and CNN today, recent research on the Sun's relationship to weather has shown that recently "visible radiation actually increased as Solar activity was declining..."

Now, this is contrary to current understanding, and will likely turn the whole Sun/Weather debate upside down......
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I think Otto is looking quite a bit better.


As for the wunderground community--I think it is a lot better this past week. Back in 2005 it was all about weather here, and not personal attacks masquerading as 'humor'. And there are some viciously mean blogs here that spawn handles making fun of people all the time. Especially low are the 'humor' bloggers here who make fun of people with mental disabilities. And I do find it a bit rich when handles created 10 weeks ago pontificate on how wunderground used to be. Either they don't know or are trolls evading a permaban.


Yep. Even JFV/Weatherstudent was pleasant back then...
Otto looking like a real TC finally.
Quoting pottery:
Here is an interesting one...

From the BBC yesterday, and CNN today, recent research on the Sun's relationship to weather has shown that recently "visible radiation actually increased as Solar activity was declining..."

Now, this is contrary to current understanding, and will likely turn the whole Sun/Weather debate upside down......


Hey pottery.

I think that's the result of the relationship of the Earth's heliosphere. Solar winds decrease, and radiation increases.

It's still a nascent discipline, though. We still know so little.

How's the weather on the island?
Quoting IKE:


I'm just an amateur who is wrong a lot. But if I was doing this for a living...as a career...I wouldn't be saying things on here I wasn't sure of..or I would phrase it in a way where I admit, I could be wrong.
Actually, you just don't say anything as it might be construde as an offical forecast from your employing agency.
Good morning, everyone. Been up all night with a sick dog, good thing I have today off for Fair and Rodeo. I'm glad Otto's going out to sea, but we could sure use the rain he would bring if he came here.
Lower Level Convergence (9:00Z)
Quoting Cotillion:


Hey pottery.

I think that's the result of the relationship of the Earth's heliosphere. Solar winds decrease, and radiation increases.

It's still a nascent discipline, though. We still know so little.

How's the weather on the island?

Real Nice right now, Cot!
Seeing a little dry-spell that always occurs around this time and called 'Petit Careme' by the old French Planters.
Thought we would get some weather from the area east of here, but it looks to be going north.
Enjoying the dry-out, after some months of heavy stuff..
fire wx warning starting at noon for my area((sarasota)..dam its dryyyyyyyyy!!!,ready for a cat 1or strobg ts w/ lotsa rain!!!
Quoting blsealevel:
3 days out



6 days out

I think this low is content hanging around the Western Caribbean Sea. It will not leave.lol
Quoting stillwaiting:
fire wx warning starting at noon for my area((sarasota)..dam its dryyyyyyyyy!!!,ready for a cat 1or strobg ts w/ lotsa rain!!!

Dont think you are going to get one in the near future...
Hope you get some showers though, sounds unpleasant...
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
648 AM EDT FRI OCT 8 2010

GAZ117-119-139-141-081600-
/O.CON.KCHS.CF.Y.0023.101008T1200Z-101008T1600Z/
COASTAL BRYAN-COASTAL CHATHAM-COASTAL LIBERTY-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
648 AM EDT FRI OCT 8 2010

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT
TODAY...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY.

HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS ALONG
THE UPPER GEORGIA COAST TODAY. TIDE LEVELS NEAR FORT PULASKI
ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BETWEEN 9.2 AND
9.4 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER WITH HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING UP AND DOWN MUCH OF THE
GEORGIA COAST. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR FLOODED ROADWAYS
DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE DELAYS...
ESPECIALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 80 BETWEEN WILMINGTON ISLAND AND TYBEE
ISLAND. THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE.

HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR IN THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE AROUND
856 AM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS AND TIDES WILL
COMBINE TO GENERATE SOME SALT WATER FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS
NEAR THE COAST. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING BEGINS ALONG THE THE
NORTHERN GEORGIA COAST WHEN TIDES REACH 9.2 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW
WATER AT FORT PULASKI.

PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON
DIRECTLY AT 1-888-383-2024 IF YOU OBSERVED ANY SALT WATER
FLOODING THIS MORNING. YOU CAN ALSO EMAIL YOUR REPORTS TO
CHS.SKYWARN@NOAA.GOV OR SEND A TWEET TO #WXREPORT.

&&

$$
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
311 AM EDT FRI OCT 8 2010

SCZ034-046-081400-
/O.NEW.KILM.CF.S.0002.101008T1000Z-101008T1400Z/
HORRY-GEORGETOWN-
311 AM EDT FRI OCT 8 2010

...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AT HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING...

HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW MOON MAY CAUSE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.
ANY FLOODING SHOULD REMAIN ONLY A NUISANCE...AFFECTING VERY LOW
LYING AREAS NEAR THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY...TIDAL CREEKS AND
DRAINAGES...AND BEACH PARKING AREAS NEAR BREAKS IN THE DUNES. HIGH
TIDE AT THE BEACHES WILL OCCUR AROUND 815 AM.

$$

TRA
Quoting pottery:

Real Nice right now, Cot!
Seeing a little dry-spell that always occurs around this time and called 'Petit Careme' by the old French Planters.
Thought we would get some weather from the area east of here, but it looks to be going north.
Enjoying the dry-out, after some months of heavy stuff..


Yes, that's probably useful, heard a few weeks ago when you got drenched.

Here it is surprisingly pleasant as well, particularly for October.

Clear skies, a bit of a stiff breeze, but 18C-19C (high 60s). That's above normal for this time of year, certainly. Looks to be a lovely weekend.
Quoting stillwaiting:
fire wx warning starting at noon for my area((sarasota)..dam its dryyyyyyyyy!!!,ready for a cat 1or strobg ts w/ lotsa rain!!!


The whole state of Louisiana has been under one for several days now. We're the second driest state in the country right now.
It's not unusual to have couple of fronts push thru to the GOM this time of year. What does seem unusual (to me at least) is to have them quite this strong going so far south while being re-inforced so frequently. Give us this pattern in January and it's gonna be cold in Florida!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
It's not unusual to have couple of fronts push thru to the GOM this time of year. What does seem unusual (to me at least)is to have them quite this strong going so far south while being re-inforced so frequently. Give us this pattern in January and it's gonna be cold in Florida!


I usually love the cold weather. but last year, even I was saying 'enough!!!' I think we had well over a week of highs in the 50's if I'm not mistaken.
Upper Level Divergence
Quoting BobinTampa:


I usually love the cold weather. but last year, even I was saying 'enough!!!' I think we had well over a week of highs in the 50's if I'm not mistaken.


We kept getting forecast after forecast for a little snow last year here in P'cola. It never materialized here except for one 2 minute period where we had some big flakes mix in right as the rain was ending. Cold w/o snow is just a big waste of cold to me!
Tropical Storm OTTO: Probability of Cat 1 or above winds to 33 hours lead
Quoting Dakster:


Yep. Even JFV/Weatherstudent was pleasant back then...
I think I would rather see him on here than the vulgar ones who are coming on now.
Good Morning Guys! After Otto what's next.
Quoting pottery:

Dont think you are going to get one in the near future...
Hope you get some showers though, sounds unpleasant...
.....actually the wx here is awsome, just dry,butw/highs in the low 80's,little to no humudity its been a early fall treat for our area,however if it continues this dry we are going to have alot of problems as our fire season approaches(winter months)....but yea,we could use rain in any form,as we're already below ave for precip this y!!!
Another awesome day in da Gulf...
Quoting FLstormwarning:
Good Morning Guys! After Otto what's next.
Several of the global models aren't really showing anything as of now. And I don't see anything brewing anytime soon at least near the GOM & SE CONUS based on the current pattern in place. 6-10 days out may be very quiet.

However, there is a disburbance in the western central Caribbean that bears watching.
Quoting hydrus:
Another awesome day in da Gulf...
Yes sir. Could not agree more.
Quoting hydrus:
Another awesome day in da Gulf...


Beautimus morning in Clearwater, FL...
Dry as a bone down here tho!
Quoting FLstormwarning:
Good Morning Guys! After Otto what's next.
Paula.
Good morning all

The models are not handling the conditions in the SW Caribbean very well but that is to be expected as nothing has formed there yet and upper level winds are not currently conducive for development.

Several of the models keep hinting at development but none are bullish on it from recent runs. Typically at this time of year it takes several days for anything to coalesce into an organized system in the SW Caribbean.

For now, I don't see anything taking shape down there while shear remains high in the region. With the exception of a small pocket of low shear in the extreme SW Caribbean conditions are too hostile for development any time soon.
There is some definate strengthening going on with Otto. On sat. loop it shows a eye beginning to form
Quoting TampaTom:


Beautimus morning in Clearwater, FL...
I love it there. We would party hearty on the pier in the late 70,s and early 80,s...Good times indeed.
Quoting pottery:

Dont think you are going to get one in the near future...
Hope you get some showers though, sounds unpleasant...
Quoting aislinnpaps:


The whole state of Louisiana has been under one for several days now. We're the second driest state in the country right now.
...a warning or watch, i had a watch and the upgraded it to a warning for today,last night...
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Yes sir. Could not agree more.
Did you make a prediction for the number of tropical cyclones this year? I went with 15/10/5...I thought 3 of the majors would reach cat-5 with all the warm water out there..I got 0 so far.! Igor was only 1 mph from the mark though..
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


We kept getting forecast after forecast for a little snow last year here in P'cola. It never materialized here except for one 2 minute period where we had some big flakes mix in right as the rain was ending. Cold w/o snow is just a big waste of cold to me!
Funny, I have video of my son dancing in that "snow". We was screaching like he'd never seen the 20 foot drifts of NoDak! LOL!
Quoting hydrus:
Did you make a prediction for the number of tropical cyclones this year? I went with 15/10/5...I thought 3 of the majors would reach cat-5 with all the warm water out there..I got 0 so far.! Igor was only 1 mph from the mark though..


Otto may make a run at a major hurricane based on sat this morning.
Quoting hydrus:
Did you make a prediction for the number of tropical cyclones this year? I went with 15/10/5...I thought 3 of the majors would reach cat-5 with all the warm water out there..I got 0 so far.! Igor was only 1 mph from the mark though..
No, I didn't. I try not to place too much value in forecasts that are very far off in the distance. Usually though, I don't find too much disagreement with the NHC prediction...& this years outlook was no exception.

Igor was SO CLOSE! He sure made a run for it! Although I have a feeling they might upgrade him in the future since I don't even think recon had a chance to fly in there at his peak...
The dryness here at the southern tip of Florida is--very thankfully--ending soon. Humidity levels and rain chances are finally forecast to return to normal (and even above normal) by Sunday as that nasty arid airmass vacates to the east. Too, highs for Naples over the next week are expected to be in the upper 80s to near 90, with lows around 70. (And I see that along the northern Gulf coast, the humidity will return on Monday, along with a chance of rain.)

With the blocking trough of dessicated atmosphere finally moving away, it appears the fat lady has been forced back to her dressing room, where she'll have nothing to do but sit and do vocal exercises for at least another week or more...any by then, who knows how things will be? The long-range models show more highs and more cold fronts in the future, but that's to be expected; it is October, after all. Of note, though, not a single global model shows anything remotely resembling the current Southern Sahara setting up anytime soon.
Quoting TampaTom:


Beautimus morning in Clearwater, FL...


Same Beautimus morning here in Fort Myers. Very unusual weather for this early in October. I am loving it!
OK y'all. I'm taking the day off, and hanging out the "gone fising" sign. Heading out onto the GOM for the day. Y'all behave!
With the eastern and western Pacific basins being very quiet this season as well as the North Indian Ocean, global ACE is at a 33 year low:

Link

Dr. Ryan N. Maue's 2010 Global Tropical Cyclone Activity Update



Update: Current Year-to-Date analysis of Northern Hemisphere and Global Tropical Cyclone Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) AND Power Dissipation Index (PDI) has fallen even further than during the previous 3-years. The global activity is at 33-year lows and at a historical record low where Typhoons form in the Western Pacific. Also see additional blog posting with recognition given to Rush Limbaugh's tropical cyclone knowledge...
While the North Atlantic has seen 15 tropical storms / hurricanes of various intensity, the Pacific basin as a whole is at historical lows! In the Western North Pacific stretching from Guam to Japan and the Philippines and China, the current ACE value of 48 is the lowest seen since reliable records became available (1945) and is 78% below normal*. The next lowest was an ACE of 78 in 1998. See figure below for visual evidence of the past 40-years of tropical cyclone activity.

Quoting FLstormwarning:


Otto may make a run at a major hurricane based on sat this morning.
If not at 11am, then later this evening or tmrw before the vertical westerly shear kicks in & really ramps up.

Based on his convective symmetrical appearance & rapid bursts firing up on imagery this morning, I am now fully convinced he will at least hit the 75mph threshold.
Quoting WeatherMum:
OK y'all. I'm taking the day off, and hanging out the "gone fising" sign. Heading out onto the GOM for the day. Y'all behave!
Thanks! I hope you have a fun day!
Quoting cat5hurricane:
No, I didn't. I try not to place too much value in forecasts that are very far off in the distance. Usually though, I don't find too much disagreement with the NHC prediction...& this years outlook was no exception.

Igor was SO CLOSE! He sure made a run for it! Although I have a feeling they might upgrade him in the future since I don't even think recon had a chance to fly in there at his peak...
I was thinking that too..They may re-evaluate Alex also...
Highs back to near 90 in C FL Saturday thru next Friday. Cool down is now gone for a while.
Quoting hydrus:
I was thinking that too..They may re-evaluate Alex also...
Yep, I agree.
In my opinion they will re-evaluate:

Alex to 115 mph

Earl to 150/155 mph

Hermine to 70/75 mph

Igor to 160 mph

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
In my opinion they will re-evaluate:

Alex to 115 mph

Earl to 150/155 mph

Hermine to 70/75 mph

Igor to 160 mph

Ya know...I completely forgot about Earl & his second rapid intensification phrase...

Earl, Alex, & Igor I think
Beautiful morning in East Central Florida... save for the dreaded pollen.

Ahhh well Claritin can fix that.

Quoting PensacolaDoug:


We kept getting forecast after forecast for a little snow last year here in P'cola. It never materialized here except for one 2 minute period where we had some big flakes mix in right as the rain was ending. Cold w/o snow is just a big waste of cold to me!
.......i know in srq we had a few days w/highs in the low-mid 40's,one morning it was 34* and raining here on siesta key!!!!,so close to snow!!!!,i think their was a little sleet mixed in down here but no snow,it was pretty cool to see the white on my local radar just north of tpa.......our high that day was. in the upper 30's i believe....
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


We kept getting forecast after forecast for a little snow last year here in P'cola. It never materialized here except for one 2 minute period where we had some big flakes mix in right as the rain was ending. Cold w/o snow is just a big waste of cold to me!


KOG figures he has the machine fixed.. its possible he might do a better job this year :)
A look at the GFDL 10m Wind Speed & Sea Level Pressure


Interestinger and interestinger...

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image



OTTO STRENGTHENING AT IT ACCELERATES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
Quoting Neapolitan:
Interestinger and interestinger...

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image


Hmmm...focus may have to shift 700 or 800 miles to the southwest.
646. IKE
Quoting Neapolitan:
The dryness here at the southern tip of Florida is--very thankfully--ending soon. Humidity levels and rain chances are finally forecast to return to normal (and even above normal) by Sunday as that nasty arid airmass vacates to the east. Too, highs for Naples over the next week are expected to be in the upper 80s to near 90, with lows around 70. (And I see that along the northern Gulf coast, the humidity will return on Monday, along with a chance of rain.)

With the blocking trough of dessicated atmosphere finally moving away, it appears the fat lady has been forced back to her dressing room, where she'll have nothing to do but sit and do vocal exercises for at least another week or more...any by then, who knows how things will be? The long-range models show more highs and more cold fronts in the future, but that's to be expected; it is October, after all. Of note, though, not a single global model shows anything remotely resembling the current Southern Sahara setting up anytime soon.


??????


.....................................

Miami,FL. forecast for the next 7 days...

Today: Sunny, with a high near 84. Northeast wind between 9 and 13 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. Northeast wind between 7 and 10 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. North wind between 7 and 11 mph.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 73. Northeast wind between 6 and 10 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Northeast wind between 6 and 9 mph.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. East wind around 8 mph.

Columbus Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. East wind between 6 and 10 mph.

Monday Night: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. East wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 10%.

Tuesday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. East wind between 8 and 13 mph.

Tuesday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74.

Wednesday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85.

Wednesday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74.

Thursday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85.

..............................................


Fort Myers,FL...

Today: Sunny, with a high near 86. Northeast wind between 6 and 9 mph.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 62. North northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 87. Calm wind becoming north northwest between 5 and 8 mph.

Saturday Night: Clear, with a low around 63. Northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 88. Calm wind becoming northeast between 5 and 8 mph.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. North northwest wind between 5 and 7 mph.

Columbus Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Light east northeast wind.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. East wind between 3 and 6 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. East northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 68.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 88.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 65.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 85.

...............................................


Orlando,FL...

Today: Sunny, with a high near 85. West wind around 5 mph.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 59. East northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 88. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 62. East northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 88. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 64. Southeast wind around 5 mph.

Columbus Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. North northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. South southeast wind around 5 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Calm wind.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 65. East wind around 5 mph becoming southwest.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. West northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. East northeast wind around 5 mph becoming southwest.

Thursday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Calm wind becoming west northwest around 5 mph.

...............................................


Tampa,FL...

Today: Sunny, with a high near 85. North northwest wind between 3 and 5 mph.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 60. North northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 87. Calm wind becoming west around 6 mph.

Saturday Night: Clear, with a low around 63. North northwest wind between 4 and 7 mph becoming calm.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 87. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. North northwest wind between 3 and 5 mph.

Columbus Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Calm wind.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. North northwest wind between 3 and 6 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Light and variable wind.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 67.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 86.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 67.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 85.
17L/H/O/C1
MARK
25.98N/64.49W


THREAT TO SHIPPING ONLY
Quoting BreadandCircuses:
With the eastern and western Pacific basins being very quiet this season as well as the North Indian Ocean, global ACE is at a 33 year low:

Link

Dr. Ryan N. Maue's 2010 Global Tropical Cyclone Activity Update



Update: Current Year-to-Date analysis of Northern Hemisphere and Global Tropical Cyclone Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) AND Power Dissipation Index (PDI) has fallen even further than during the previous 3-years. The global activity is at 33-year lows and at a historical record low where Typhoons form in the Western Pacific. Also see additional blog posting with recognition given to Rush Limbaugh's tropical cyclone knowledge...
While the North Atlantic has seen 15 tropical storms / hurricanes of various intensity, the Pacific basin as a whole is at historical lows! In the Western North Pacific stretching from Guam to Japan and the Philippines and China, the current ACE value of 48 is the lowest seen since reliable records became available (1945) and is 78% below normal*. The next lowest was an ACE of 78 in 1998. See figure below for visual evidence of the past 40-years of tropical cyclone activity.

Cool ACE graphic post
Mother nature has thrown a few ice cubes into the glass




LATEST VIS 1KM STILL
Quoting RitaEvac:
Mother nature has thrown a few ice cubes into the glass


Yes..Quite a difference from a month ago..Still looks warm on this map though...
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


LATEST VIS 1KM STILL


KOG, PDoug was unhappy with your attempt at snow last year.
Quoting Neapolitan:
The dryness here at the southern tip of Florida is--very thankfully--ending soon. Humidity levels and rain chances are finally forecast to return to normal (and even above normal) by Sunday as that nasty arid airmass vacates to the east. Too, highs for Naples over the next week are expected to be in the upper 80s to near 90, with lows around 70. (And I see that along the northern Gulf coast, the humidity will return on Monday, along with a chance of rain.)

With the blocking trough of dessicated atmosphere finally moving away, it appears the fat lady has been forced back to her dressing room, where she'll have nothing to do but sit and do vocal exercises for at least another week or more...any by then, who knows how things will be? The long-range models show more highs and more cold fronts in the future, but that's to be expected; it is October, after all. Of note, though, not a single global model shows anything remotely resembling the current Southern Sahara setting up anytime soon.


Clueless, Not one place in Florida has a RAIN chance till Tuesday and even then only like 10-20%.
Good Morning. Different computer.

I see sunshine!!! Although the forecast calls for rain... :-(

Met Service of Jamaica

October 08, 2010 at 5:00 a.m.

LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST

SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… Area of Low Pressure across the southwestern Caribbean.

Comment
The Area of Low Pressure is expected to remain nearly stationary at least until Monday with its associated Trough also expected to linger across Jamaica during this period.

24-HOURS FORECAST
This Morning… Partly cloudy with isolated showers across sections of northern parishes.
This Afternoon… Outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms across most parishes, lingering into the evening.
Tonight… Lingering showers mainly across northern parishes, partly cloudy elsewhere.

Maximum temperatures expected today:
Kingston… 32 degrees Celsius.
Montego Bay… 32 degrees Celsius.

3-DAYS FORECAST (starting tomorrow)
Sat/Sun… Periods of showers and thunderstorms especially during the afternoon.
Mon… Outbreaks of showers and isolated thunderstorms

Regionally… Tropical Storm Otto is strengthening as it accelerates east-northeastward and at 4:00 a.m. was located approximately 835km south of Bermuda. Otto has induced a Trough across the central Caribbean.
kjb
This is interesting....Link
Quoting IKE:


??????


What has you confused enough to use a full six question marks? :-)

Seriously, did you not notice the general trend toward warmer daytime highs and nightime lows? The general trend away from "sunny" and "clear" toward "partly cloudy" and "mostly sunny"? The general trend towards chances of rain, which, even though slight--10%, 20%--are infinitely higher than the near 0% we've seen over the past week? The general trend away from winds with a northerly component and toward those with a southerly, easterly, or westerly component?

My point was simply that the dry and cool is going away. it'll be back...just not in the next week.
Quoting cat5hurricane:
12Z
OTTO to run the gap on shear map
Quoting StormChaser81:


Clueless...


Sorry. I'll try to use smaller words next time, if that'll help.

;-)
662. IKE
Quoting Neapolitan:


What has you confused enough to use a full six question marks? :-)

Seriously, did you not notice the general trend toward warmer daytime highs and nightime lows? The general trend away from "sunny" and "clear" toward "partly cloudy" and "mostly sunny"? The general trend towards chances of rain, which, even though slight--10%, 20%--are infinitely higher than the near 0% we've seen over the past week? The general trend away from winds with a northerly component and toward those with a southerly, easterly, or westerly component?

My point was simply that the dry and cool is going away. it'll be back...just not in the next week.


Because you're wrong with what you said...."The dryness here at the southern tip of Florida is--very thankfully--ending soon. Humidity levels and rain chances are finally forecast to return to normal (and even above normal) by Sunday as that nasty arid airmass vacates to the east.".....

Where is there a rain chance by Sunday? Or above normal?


Quoting hydrus:
This is interesting....Link

That was. One of the few models that are really doing that.

Something to watch though...
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Dry as a bone down here tho!


How many buckets of rainwater would you like me to send? We have an over abundance here in Jamaica. Couple months ago we were rationing water, now we're flooding. What happened to moderation? Not too much, not too little. :-)
Quoting Orcasystems:


KOG, PDoug was unhappy with your attempt at snow last year.
snow how much would make him happy the last time i tried that i turned it into a ice rink down there was that happy enough or do you want to be happier
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
OTTO to run the gap on shear map
Just gonna slither right on through.
the models I looked at had zero rainfall in Florida in the next 5 days at least. I think GFS had zero rain for 180 hrs.
Quoting Orcasystems:


KOG, PDoug was unhappy with your attempt at snow last year.


Yes I was. So this year I'm putting in my order early for a repeat of Feb 1899!!
Quoting stillwaiting:
.......i know in srq we had a few days w/highs in the low-mid 40's,one morning it was 34* and raining here on siesta key!!!!,so close to snow!!!!,i think their was a little sleet mixed in down here but no snow,it was pretty cool to see the white on my local radar just north of tpa.......our high that day was. in the upper 30's i believe....


Yeah, we had an unprecedented number of days with highs in the 40's and 50's here in Fort Myers. We had one day where it didn't get out of the thirties...maybe the same day you're reffering to...our high was 38 and rainy all day!! I've never seen that before! Highs in the 30's?!?!? Crazy! Too bad it's not another El Nino winter...the wet winter was our saving grace last season for fires...this season maybe not so much...
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


Yes I was. So this year I'm putting in my order early for a repeat of Feb 1899!!
snow in miami and ice skating on the northern gulf well that might take a super volcano for that
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


Yes I was. So this year I'm putting in my order early for a repeat of Feb 1899!!


Oh oh.. someone mark and save this one.. he may regret it
72 hours out - night and day difference between GOM & Caribbean vertical shear forecast...

Quoting IKE:


Because you're wrong with what you said...."The dryness here at the southern tip of Florida is--very thankfully--ending soon. Humidity levels and rain chances are finally forecast to return to normal (and even above normal) by Sunday as that nasty arid airmass vacates to the east.".....

Where is there a rain chance by Sunday? Or above normal?




My bad; the NWS updated the local Naples forecast at 9:31, while I was writing the comment. Here are the salient parts of the revised forecast:

Today: sunny; 86/67; 0% precip; 53% RH
Saturday: sunny; 87/67; 0%; 59%
Sunday: mostly sunny; 87/68; 0%; 64%
Monday: mostly sunny; 87/69; 0%; 64%
Tuesday: partly cloudy; 86/69; 30%; 71%
Wednesday: partly cloudy; 85/69; 20%; 77%
Thursday: mostly sunny; 85/69; 30%; 73%
Friday: scattered t-storms; 83/68; 60%; 68%
Saturday: scattered t-storms; 84/69; 40%; 68%

So, again: temps trending upward until the clouds come in (and not down as the calendar would dictate), cloud coverage increasing, rain chances increasing, relative humidity increasing. To put it another way, more summer-like next week than it is now. Which was my original point: it's far too early to say winter's set in and the season is over...at least here in South Florida.
674. beell
Psst, Nea...
Take a look at this when you get a chance. It's called a "water vapor loop".

Link
Gulf waters off the coast of Ft Myers are currently 79 F. A Week ago they were in the high 80's
Quoting beell:
Psst, Nea...
Take a look at this when you get a chance. It's called a "water vapor loop".

Link
don't show him that your gonna tell him everything

j/k
Quoting FtMyersgal:
Gulf waters off the coast of Ft Myers are currently 79 F. A Week ago they were in the high 80's


Its dropped 10deg! I was just out there and the fishies are very frisky now! This is one of the smaller ones.

Quoting FtMyersgal:
Gulf waters off the coast of Ft Myers are currently 79 F. A Week ago they were in the high 80's
Wow...those really plummeted.
679. Jax82
In NEFL, we only get a 10% next Mon and 20% next Tues. Temps do warm a little. I dont think we'll see rain for at least 5 days.

Quoting Orcasystems:


Oh oh.. someone mark and save this one.. he may regret it



File this one under the "be careful what u wish for" heading!
Quoting beell:
Psst, Nea...
Take a look at this when you get a chance. It's called a "water vapor loop".


You should widen your view; larger loops clearly show the dry that's been hanging around slowly being pushed away, and most all weekly or 10-day forecasts for the southeast show a wetter--and more seasonal--pattern coming back.
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Wow...those really plummeted.


Now you gotta keep in mind that is just surface temps. A few feet down its still steaming!
Quoting TampaSpin:


Its dropped 10deg! I was just out there and the fishies are very frisky now! This is one of the smaller ones.



Nice catch there! Wish I was out there now instead of stuck at work. At least our week end will be nice
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



File this one under the "be careful what u wish for" heading!


If we get screwed this winter, i'm blaming you for sure now Doug.....LOL
Quoting TampaSpin:


Now you gotta keep in mind that is just surface temps. A few feet down its still steaming!
Oh for sure. Nice fish you caught btw!
Quoting TampaSpin:


Now you gotta keep in mind that is just surface temps. A few feet down its still steaming!


Yes, agree. A few feet makes the difference. But still, it shows what a week of cooler temps can do. I think there is still plenty of heat in the GOM.
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Nice catch there! Wish I was out there now instead of stuck at work. At least our week end will be nice


Check these out! The Red Bulls was too big to keep.




It will be interesting to see if Otto is upgraded to c CAT 1 hurricane at the 11AM EDT NHC advisory. Otto is looking real healthy this morning!
Morning All.

Otto is far reaching.



AMZ080-081530-
SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 65W INCLUDING BAHAMAS
530 AM EDT FRI OCT 08 2010

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM 22N TO 27N E OF 67W


TODAY
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN
150 NM OF CENTER OF OTTO. HIGHEST WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 KT BEFORE
MOVING E OF AREA. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 150 NM NW QUADRANT. HIGHEST SEAS 20 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
210 NM OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER
OF AREA E OF 72W WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT IN MIXED
SWELL. W OF 72W N OF 26N N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT DIMINISHING
TO 10 TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 TO 8 FT
LATE. W OF 72W S OF 26N N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT DIMINISHING TO
15 KT LATE. SEAS 9 TO 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 TO 10 FT LATE E OF
BAHAMAS 6 TO 8 FT AND 4 TO 6 FT W OF BAHAMAS. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS NEAR TROPICAL STORM.

TONIGHT
N OF 25N E OF 70W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT
DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
S OF 25N E OF 70W N TO NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT EXCEPT SW TO W WINDS
10 TO 15 KT S OF 23N E OF 68W. SEAS 7 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL. W OF
70W NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KT N OF 27N
LATE. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT W OF BAHAMAS AND 5 TO 8 FT IN PRIMARILY NE
SWELL E OF BAHAMAS EXCEPT SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT N OF 27N W OF
75W LATE.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT
N OF 27N W OF 68W NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT.
SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF TROUGH N TO NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT.
SEAS 4 TO 7 FT EXCEPT 2 TO 4 FT W OF BAHAMAS. S OF TROUGH S TO
SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
SE PART.

SUN THROUGH TUE
N OF 27N NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT BECOMING
VARIABLE WINDS W OF 70W MON AND TUE. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. N OF TROUGH
TO 27N NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT W OF BAHAMAS
AND SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT E OF BAHAMAS. S OF TROUGH S TO SE
WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S
OF 25N.

$$
00
WTNT32 KNHC 081431
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OTTO ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172010
1100 AM AST FRI OCT 08 2010

...OTTO STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...THE EIGHTH OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 64.0W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

My latest blog update on Otto, please stop by and check it out Link
Looks like starting Monday a return to a more seasonable pattern is in store for SFL. Bye Bye dry air :-(



Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Northeast wind between 5 and 11 mph.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. East wind between 6 and 9 mph.

Columbus Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. East wind between 3 and 10 mph.

Monday Night: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. Southeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 10%.

Tuesday: A 10 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. East wind between 6 and 10 mph.
Quoting TampaSpin:


If we get screwed this winter, i'm blaming you for sure now Doug.....LOL



I'm always guilty of wishcasting deep south snowstorms!
Quoting Bordonaro:
It will be interesting to see if Otto is upgraded to c CAT 1 hurricane at the 11AM EDT NHC advisory. Otto is looking real healthy this morning!

He held his own all thru the nite & now looks on the verge of another burst. If not 11am, then I'd say 5pm...
Hurricane Otto makes his appearance

698. Relix
With Otto now a Hurricane, it seems that all forecasts, at least the minimum ones, have been met for this season.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

He held his own all thru the nite & now looks on the verge of another burst. If not 11am, then I'd say 5pm...

He is a Hurricane. Latest 11AM EDT advisory is out early today :O)

HURRICANE OTTO ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172010
1100 AM AST FRI OCT 08 2010

...OTTO STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...THE EIGHTH OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 64.0W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTTO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST. OTTO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION
WITH A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OTTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY LATE SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES...315 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE EASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Quoting Relix:
With Otto now a Hurricane, it seems that all forecasts, at least the minimum ones, have been met for this season.


My forecast in May of this year was 15-18 storms, 9 or 10 Hurricanes, and 5 majors.
As of 11AM, Hurricane Otto's ACE has reached 1.5325. That's not much, to be sure, but it's higher than that racked up by Bonnie, Gaston, Hermine, Matthew, or Nicole...and he'll likely exceed Colin's by 11PM. (Fiona is next after that at 2.94.)

BTW: that's 15-8-5.
Quoting Bordonaro:

He is a Hurricane. Latest 11AM EDT advisory is out early today :O)

HURRICANE OTTO ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172010
1100 AM AST FRI OCT 08 2010

...OTTO STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...THE EIGHTH OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 64.0W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTTO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST. OTTO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION
WITH A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OTTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY LATE SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES...315 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE EASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$

Yep, sure did. It's a no doubter they had overwelming evidence to up the intensity of Otto to a Hurricane.
Quoting Neapolitan:
As of 11AM, Hurricane Otto's ACE has reached 1.5325. That's not much, to be sure, but it's higher than that racked up by Bonnie, Gaston, Hermine, Matthew, or Nicole...and he'll likely exceed Colin's by 11PM. (Fiona is next after that at 2.94.)

BTW: that's 15-8-5.


That's one heck of a busted season, lol. And, it's not close to over yet.
Quoting Neapolitan:
As of 11AM, Hurricane Otto's ACE has reached 1.5325. That's not much, to be sure, but it's higher than that racked up by Bonnie, Gaston, Hermine, Matthew, or Nicole...and he'll likely exceed Colin's by 11PM. (Fiona is next after that at 2.94.)

BTW: that's 15-8-5.

Do you have the total Tropical ATL ACE #'s available?
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Yep, sure did. It's a no doubter they had overwelming evidence to up the intensity of Otto to a Hurricane.

At this rate Otto may become at CAT 2by 11PM EDT tonight, then weaken on Saturday.
708. Jax82
TGIF
Quoting Bordonaro:

At this rate Otto may become at CAT 2by 11PM EDT tonight, then weaken on Saturday.
If he can continue to fire up cold tops & tighten up his structure a bit more, I can see a run at a very strong Cat 1. Wouldn't rule out Cat 2 either, but timing is going to everything w/ the expected westerly vertical shear after 24 hours.
NEW BLOG EVERYONE
TS.Otto
7Oct 03pmGMT - - 23.8n68.0w - - 60mph - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#6
7Oct 06pmGMT - - 23.7n67.8w - - 50knots - - 992mb -- NHC-ATCF *23.6n67.9w
7Oct 09pmGMT - - 24.0n67.6w - - 60mph - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#7
8Oct 12amGMT - - 23.9n67.0w - - 55knots - - 992mb -- NHC-ATCF *23.8n67.1w
8Oct 03amGMT - - 24.1n66.6w - - 60mph - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv. #8
8Oct 06amGMT - - 24.4n66.1w - - 60knots - - 989mb -- NHC-ATCF
8Oct 09amGMT - - 24.8n65.5w - - 70mph - - - 986mb -- NHC.Adv. #8
8Oct 12pmGMT - - 25.4n64.6w - - 60knots - - 986mb -- NHC-ATCF
H.Otto
8Oct 03pmGMT - - 25.9n64.0w - - 75mph - - - 986mb -- NHC.Adv. #10
50knots=~57.5mph=93.6km/h __ 60mph=~96.6km/h
55knots=~63.3mph=~101.9km/h __ 65mph=~104.6km/h
60knots=~69mph=~111.1km/h __ 70mph=~112.7km/h
75mph =~120.7k/h
MaximumSustainedWind speeds are rounded to the nearest 5mph or to the nearest 5knots

Copy&paste 23.8n68.0w, 23.7n67.8w, 24.0n67.6w, 23.9n67.0w, 24.1n66.6w-24.4n66.1w, 24.4n66.1w-24.8n65.5w, 24.8n65.5w-25.4n64.6w, 25.4n64.6w-25.9n64.0w, ngd into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours