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Otto Shifts from Atlantic to Pacific after Historic Landfall in Central America

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 6:14 PM GMT on November 25, 2016

Tropical Storm Otto is now in the Eastern Pacific, headed westwards away from Central America, after making landfall on Thursday as a top-end Category 2 storm with 110-mph winds over southern Nicaragua. Otto’s heavy rains are being blamed for four deaths on November 22 in Panama, and at least five others are missing there. These deaths are the second latest deaths on record from an Atlantic named storm that we are aware of; the only killer storm on record later in the year was Tropical Storm Odette, whose floods killed eight people in the Dominican Republic after making landfall on December 6, 2003. Damage from Otto may be relatively light for its strength given that the hurricane made landfall in a very sparsely populated part of far southern Nicaragua.

Otto’s circulation survived its trek over Central America remarkably well, as the center emerged from the west coast of Costa Rica as a 70-mph tropical storm. In records dating back to 1851, Otto is the only tropical storm or hurricane whose center moved over any part of Costa Rica. Otto is also the Atlantic’s latest hurricane landfall in any year, and the latest Atlantic hurricane to reach Category 2 strength in any year.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Otto taken at approximately 11 am EST, November 24, 2016--Thanksgiving Day. At the time, Otto was a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds about to make landfall in Nicaragua as the strongest Atlantic hurricane ever observed so late in the year. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Civil Defense workers look at the area where a couple was killed after their home was destroyed by a mudslide in Arraijan on the outskirts of Panama City, Panama on Nov. 22, 2016. Image credit: AP Photo/Arnulfo Franco.

According to insurance broker Aon Benfield, at least four people were killed in Panama, including two who were trapped in a landslide that struck just west of Panama City. Seven people were rescued from the slide. The third fatality was reported as the result of a toppled tree in Panama City while the fourth was as the result of drowning in the swollen Utivé River. Five people were officially listed as missing.

Otto’s future
As of 10 AM EST Friday, Otto was located more than 150 miles west of Costa Rica, with top sustained winds still at 65 mph. Few tropical storms traverse the East Pacific this far southeast, and computer models have been struggling to capture Otto’s initial state and come into agreement on its future. The rough consensus is for a steady-state tropical storm over the next several days, with some weakening thereafter. Otto will be moving over warm water with sea surface temperatures of 28 - 29°C (82 - 84°F, or about 1 - 2°C above average) with moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and a reasonably moist atmosphere (mid-level relative humidity around 60%). The 06Z Friday run of our most reliable intensity model, the HWRF, projects a gradual weakening, with Otto close to the bottom threshold of tropical storm strength by next Wednesday. Meanwhile, statistical models, including the 12Z SHIPS run, suggest that Otto could actually gain some strength by early next week. The 10 AM EST Friday outlook from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicts that Otto will weaken to a post-tropical remnant low between Tuesday and Wednesday.

From Atlantic to Pacific: a first in hurricane naming
Tropical Storm Otto is the first storm on record to carry the same name while moving from the North Atlantic to the Northeast Pacific or vice versa. In all such prior events, NHC policy was to assign a different name when an identifiable tropical cyclone moved from one basin to another. NHC’s subsequent name-retention policy was adopted more than a decade ago, but Otto is the first storm to put the rule into practice. Under the old rule, five tropical storms or hurricanes--including the most recent, Hurricane Cesar-Douglas (1996)--underwent a name change when moving from Atlantic to Pacific or vice versa. A few other “crossover” tropical cyclones have been recorded, most of them moving from Atlantic to Pacific rather than vice versa. Some of these were no more than a tropical depression in one or the other basin, which meant that only one name was used during the entire life cycle. The most recent of these was Hermine (2010), which formed as an East Pacific tropical depression before entering the western Gulf and striking the northeast coast of Mexico as a tropical storm.

As part of the new naming convention, Otto in the East Pacific has been assigned a different ID than Otto in the Atlantic under the U.S. Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF), even though the storm has the same name and is considered the same cyclone in both basins. This is playing havoc with various online platforms that map and archive tropical cyclones. At the National Hurricane Center’s website, and on our own site, you’ll see a Hurricane Otto in the Atlantic and a Tropical Storm Otto in the Pacific depicted as two separate tropical cyclones. It appears that the two life stages of Otto will be considered separately when calculating storm totals and Accumulated Cyclone Energy for the 2016 Atlantic and East Pacific seasons.

Hurricane landfalls from January to November?!
Between the landfall of Hurricane Alex in the Azores in January and Otto's landfall in Central America this week, 2016 will break the record for the most prolonged calendar-year hurricane season in Atlantic history (the 1938 season is close behind, although that one wasn’t bracketed by landfalls). "WX Geeks" host Marshall Shepherd reflects on this "year-long" hurricane season in a Forbes essay published Friday.

We’ll be back with our next post on Monday. Enjoy the weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Hmm, you can tell it's the holidays, Firefox is messed up, https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/ is messed up and Wunderground is messed up.
Many thanks for the continued coverage of Otto over the holiday. You guys are most appreciated! Have a great weekend as well!
Quoting 1. MahFL:

Hmm, you can tell it's the holidays, Firefox is messed up, https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/ is messed up and Wunderground is messed up.


do your self some good and swich too chrome and you have no issue what so ever
Talk about a storm. Most storms can't make the passage and certainly most are not around this time of the year.
Thanks for the update gentlemen! I guess Otto has it's own plan. Sorry to hear of the loss of life with the storm.
Otto cruising along westbound.

I hope everyone had a Happy Thanksgiving!
Any chance this storm could be reclassified as major in the post storm analysis?

Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving
tropical storm Olga in 2007 also caused deaths in December beating out Otto, something about O storms
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
930 AM PST Fri Nov 25 2016

The "R" word being mentioned again for this weekend in Soo Cal


A couple of lows, which were part of a trough, extended from 48N/132W
to 39N/135W with another low in the Gulf of Alaska. The first wave
will move through southern California Saturday evening with very
much a N-S orientation. There will be good moisture from the surface
to a little above 700 MB, though the deeper moisture will be short-
lived, mainly between about 3 and 7 PM. The winds in the 700-850 MB
layer will be southwest, generally 25-40 knots, so some orographic
precipitation will occur. 850 MB temperatures drop fairly quickly
with the first wave, with 1-3 deg C by evening, so generally 1-4
inches of snow should fall above about 5000-5500 ft elevation.
Rainfall amounts will be somewhat variable due to some convective
precip as 500 MB temps fall to -25 C during the early evening and 12Z
NAM boundary layer CAPE shows 500 J/kg then, but overall it should be
0.1 to 0.5 inches from the coast to the valleys and 0.5 to 1.0
inches along the coastal mountain slopes through Saturday evening. A
small amount of precip, mostly under 0.1 inches, could spill into
the deserts. A few showers should continue late Saturday night as
moisture remains at/below 800 MB, though the second wave from the
Gulf of Alaska low will arrive Sunday. Winds will be more westerly,
but moisture could still extend above 700 MB. Despite the colder
origins of the second system, temps aloft are progged to be slightly
higher than with the first wave, so the snow level could inch up a
few hundred feet, mostly 5500-6000 ft elevation, but another 1 to 4
inches of snow could fall. Rainfall amounts for Sunday should be
mostly 0.1 to 0.4 inches coast/valleys and 0.4 to 0.8 inches mountain
slopes with slightly higher amounts in San Diego versus the northern
mountains. Again, some precip could spill into the deserts, mostly
light. Winds will be increasing Saturday with some gusts over 50 MPH
in the afternoon on the mountain crests, desert slopes and into the
deserts. Strongest winds will occur with the second system Sunday
when local gusts could exceed 60 MPH on east slopes and into the
deserts, and a few gusts to 40 MPH could occur near the beaches.
Precip should end Sunday evening, and winds will decrease that
night.
I hope SoCal gets rainfall....
Quoting 3. thetwilightzone:



do your self some good and swich too chrome and you have no issue what so ever


3 issues, Wunderground is still messed up, my Firefox bookmarks won't import, and I forgot my logins to some pages...sigh...
Thanks for the updates Gentlemen....
Quoting 155. hurricaneeye:

I have to report that unfortunetely we have lost lives in Costa Rica today. This is a very sad moment for us. The government was stubborn in only forcing evacuations in the caribbean side, not in the north Pacific. There were many voluntary shelters and public transportation was suspended since early in the morning. Most business was closed, but it was not enough
Quoting 7. HurricaneHunterJoe:

I hope everyone had a Happy Thanksgiving!


We didn't go to any family gatherings this year so it was very quiet and I got out of driving over 120 miles or so. My SiL dropped off a Turkey breast and some corn and I made some mashed potatoes and gravy. Much more calm this year.
Quoting 8. MaxWeather:

Any chance this storm could be reclassified as major in the post storm analysis?


Quoting 137. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I expect the storm to be upgraded to a major hurricane in post-season analysis.
Quoting 8. MaxWeather:

Any chance this storm could be reclassified as major in the post storm analysis?

Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving
I bet a 12 pack of delicious beer that they do...:)


Whoa!

Next frontal system headed into the West Coast. Pseudo-eye marks the surface low, moving eastward toward Cape Mendocino along a stationary front with a sharpening cold front developing to its southwest moving over progressively milder SSTs. Rain forecast to spread over California tonight. Possibility of a wave developing along the frontal boundary as it nears the coast depending on how the jet stream behaves, which would enhance ppt. Good snowfall forecast for the Sierras.

Water vapor image shows oddity of very dry air southeast of Otto coming in from the Southern Hemisphere with less dry air coming in from the Mexican landmass.
Quoting 19. BayFog:





Lets hope CA has a wet winter. Meanwhile here in NE FL we have not had any rain for weeks...

Now on third jump shift to new blog. Still not understanding what is going on with main page.
Quoting 14. EmsiNasklug:



The most annoying thing was reading messages of some Costa Rican people "disappointed" because in their areas "birds were singing and nothing happened. Is that all ? ". They felt "betrayed".
Those idiots should feel lucky they have never been on the path of one of those monsters.
If they are in search of such kind of emotions, they are free to pack their stuff and go to make the stormchasers.
Quoting 21. MahFL:



Lets hope CA has a wet winter. Meanwhile here in NE FL we have not had any rain for weeks...




Here in S.W. Florida our last measurable precipitation was on October 12th (around 44 days with no rain).
If this continues we'll be added to that drought map too.
Quoting Blog:


Otto’s circulation survived its trek over Central America remarkably well, as the center emerged from the west coast of Costa Rica as a 70-mph tropical storm.

I thought it was 65mph?
When will this high pressure break in the western Carib and se us
Hoping those forecast totals come true. Forecasters(Models) nailed the last storm pretty good. Map shows 3/4"-1" at my place for the weekend. :)



Notice how much of Northern Costa Rica was hit as it track inland...Not good..edit...the shape of the coast on the Pacific side would enhance the tidal surge from the storm also...
Quoting 15. PedleyCA:



We didn't go to any family gatherings this year so it was very quiet and I got out of driving over 120 miles or so. My SiL dropped off a Turkey breast and some corn and I made some mashed potatoes and gravy. Much more calm this year.

Made our biennial T-day trip down to Indio, and got rear-ended on I-15 north of San Bernardino. Now we have to get the two insurance companies to pay for a rental car that will get us home to Truckee in the snow on Sunday. Oh, and the food and company were great.
People are tweeting #ThanksNASA after a Trump adviser suggested he'd axe its climate change research arm

Scientists have taken to Twitter to talk about all the important work NASA's Earth science program does, using the hashtag #ThanksNASA.

---------

Peter Sinclair:
‏@PeterWSinclair

#thanksNASA for showing us the truth about our world, the only home humans have ever known. The Pale Blue dot. https://youtu.be/XH7ZRF6zNoc

thanks for the update the season is just about done 5 days remain
Quoting 32. Xandra:




Quoting 22. VAstorms:

Now on third jump shift to new blog. Still not understanding what is going on with main page.


I know I can't get to this blog unless I go to the November blogs list. Main page still has "Otto Expected to Strike Central America as a Hurricane" as the latest blog, thought it was just me.....


According to this, Otto was still a strong Cat-1 or weak Cat-2 over 100 miles inland from the coast. This mean that areas that seldom see hurricane force winds took a direct hit...This is sad.
Total first for me. I've never tracked a ATL-EPAC crossover.
Quoting 34. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Faster and faster.
Here it comes... What seems to be our normal Thanksgiving weekend snow storm:

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM AKST SUNDAY THROUGH TURNAGAIN PASS... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM AKST SUNDAY.

* SNOW...4 TO 9 INCHES.

* VISIBILITY...REDUCED TO ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* WIND...EAST 20 TO 25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
Earlier on Friday, there was no snow. Now, in 8 hours or so, some 5 - 10 cm has fallen.



Blah. I want spring to come.
Quoting 40. elioe:

Earlier on Friday, there was no snow. Now, in 8 hours or so, some 5 - 10 cm has fallen.



Blah. I want spring to come.


We had 1/4-12 inch by this morning... Not sure what that is in CM... Maybe 1?

Don't worry only 7 more months of winter.
Quoting 32. Xandra:

People are tweeting #ThanksNASA after a Trump adviser suggested he'd axe its climate change research arm

Scientists have taken to Twitter to talk about all the important work NASA's Earth science program does, using the hashtag #ThanksNASA.

---------

Peter Sinclair:
%u200F@PeterWSinclair

#thanksNASA for showing us the truth about our world, the only home humans have ever known. The Pale Blue dot. https://youtu.be/XH7ZRF6zNoc


How do you distinguish "climate change research" from climate research in general? Is this fool suggesting we don't need climate research at all?
44. vis0
Otto moving SSW or just a re centering?

Otto is expected to make a sharp NW-N turn in 2-3 days???

Has any Tropical system ever gone IN THIS ePAc AREA from Northern Hemisphere into a Southern Hemisphere and kept its N. Hem Tropical designation?

Example:: TD in n. hem ePAC  goes into s. hem ePAC, stays as a TD

OR

TS in n. hem ePAC  goes into s. hem ePAC, stays as a T.

did a simple search did not find one, can't search wxu too slow of a connection.


DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2016

VALID 281200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN FOR DAY 4 (MONDAY) AND DAY 5 (TUESDAY)...WITH THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH SHIFTING EAST AND ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. BY LATE DAY 4 (12Z TUESDAY). THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE BASE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ON TUESDAY... WITH MODELS DIFFERING IN THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE BASAL TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS ON DAY 6 (WEDNESDAY).

...DAY 4 (MONDAY)...
WHILE A LARGE SCALE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THE DAY 2 SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHING NORTHERN/CENTRAL CA IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST FROM NM THROUGH TX MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OH VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT STRENGTHENING...VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES. IN THE LOW LEVELS...THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM DAY 3 INTO DAY 4 AND SPREAD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS SOMEWHAT LOW CAPE AND HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS... WITH THIS OUTLOOK MAINTAINING A 15-PERCENT SEVERE-WEATHER PROBABILITY. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED EAST INTO MORE OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE PER 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING FARTHER TO THE EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

...DAY 5 (TUESDAY) AND DAY 6 (WEDNESDAY)...
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO THE SOUTHEAST...SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY IN AVAILABLE INSTABILITY PRECLUDES ANY SEVERE WEATHER RISK AREAS AT THIS TIME.

..PETERS.. 11/25/2016
I saw it first.
snow december before christmas s/e
Station 46059 (LLNR 382) - WEST CALIFORNIA - 357NM West of San Francisco, CA

Wind Direction (WDIR): NW ( 320 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 27.2 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 35.0 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.80 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.04 in ( Rising )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 53.6 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 60.6 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 45.9 °F

Blast of colder drier air moving in on strong winds behind the cold front approaching the West Coast. SST is 60 F so convective showers are likely after frontal passage.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
144 PM PST FRI NOV 25 2016

SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HANFORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO
4 PM PST SUNDAY.
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
357 PM AKST FRI NOV 25 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT

..HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING SATURDAY..

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 65 KT...SEAS 31 FT BUILDING TO 42 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.

42 foot seas?!! wow Hope the fishing fleets are in port.
Quoting 51. BayFog:

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
357 PM AKST FRI NOV 25 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT

..HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING SATURDAY..

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 65 KT...SEAS 31 FT BUILDING TO 42 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.

42 foot seas?!! wow Hope the fishing fleets are in port.
that's the best time for crabbing
Quoting 40. elioe:

Earlier on Friday, there was no snow. Now, in 8 hours or so, some 5 - 10 cm has fallen.



Blah. I want spring to come.
not yet u got to get some global warming snows first like the I am buried in type snow

55. vis0

Quoting 8. MaxWeather:

Any chance this storm could be reclassified as major in the post storm analysis?

Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving
u got mail

hope you had a ful(l)filling thanksgiving.
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
Quoting 46. Barefootontherocks:

I
saw it first.





who is chopping wood?
Quoting 46. Barefootontherocks:

I saw it first.



Lol


Otto
If Otto goes back in the gulf, will it still be Otto?

Yes Grothar it will. It otto be anyway :)
Quoting 59. BaltimoreBrian:

Yes Grothar it will. It otto be anyway :)


You're talking funnilly. Be you OK?
Quoting 42. riverat544:

How do you distinguish "climate change research" from climate research in general? Is this fool suggesting we don't need climate research at all?


Myron Bell is a science denier. He thinks climate research is silly. He thinks environmental regulations are silly. He thinks humans have no impact on the planet, and has been in the back pocket of the Koch brothers since forever, with a little extra on the side from assorted fossil fuel groups and conservative think tanks.

And for the cherry on top of this turd sundae, he has no degree in any field even remotely related to science. So of course he's the best qualified person to run the EPA, amirite?

Quoting 61. BaltimoreBrian:

Socialismo o muerte!

Muy muerto.


On Black Friday. The irony.
Can't believe Fidel Castro finally died...

Quoting 65. Dakster:

Can't believe Fidel Castro finally died...




This is good. A lot of people I know in Broward and Dade are happy. My coworker who was former Cuban Army/Medical Scientist is happy. There is still Raul however but good news all around. Awaiting the day when cold war mentality between Cuba and US begone entirely. Lots of people can't believe they're alive to see this.

Speaking of I can't believe.... Otto a Cat 2 at landfall. Very close to Costa Rica and travelled over that country. Wow

Go on vacation and the world does its thing.

As for the NASA thing. Hope that means a raise for NOAA then? =S
Finally saw the sun today after another wet week here in Acme, Wa. Just shy of 9" for Nov...and of course its raining again this evening. Opening day at My Baker ski area so instead of jostling with the crouds heading up to the NE side of the volcano, my wife and I hit the SW side and had the Ridley creek trail all to ourselves. Mile of mud, mile of slush and a mile of breaking trail through deep fresh snow. Close to 3' deep at about 4400'.


Fun!
s.carib....flare.up///
cuba? back in the late fifties they had a corrupt govt and the people were ready for change. if it wasnt Fidel it might of been another revolutionary. now look at today and the other countries in the region? anyone really doing much better than cuba? PRicos broke facing a huge debt. Mexico and most of the latin american countries people are afraid to go out in the dark. fact is cuba is still one of the carib. leaders and most likely will be in the future.
He was an oppressive dictator who brutalized his countryman. And those were his good points.
From the Guardian:

Arctic ice melt could trigger uncontrollable climate change at global level

Scientists warn increasingly rapid melting could trigger polar ‘tipping points’ with catastrophic consequences felt as far away as the Indian Ocean

Arctic scientists have warned that the increasingly rapid melting of the ice cap risks triggering 19 “tipping points” in the region that could have catastrophic consequences around the globe.

The Arctic Resilience Report found that the effects of Arctic warming could be felt as far away as the Indian Ocean, in a stark warning that changes in the region could cause uncontrollable climate change at a global level.

Temperatures in the Arcticare currently about 20C above what would be expected for the time of year, which scientists describe as “off the charts”. Sea ice is at the lowest extent ever recorded for the time of year.

“The warning signals are getting louder,” said Marcus Carson of the Stockholm Environment Institute and one of the lead authors of the report. “[These developments] also make the potential for triggering [tipping points] and feedback loops much larger.”

[...]

The research, compiled by 11 organisations including the Arctic Council and six universities, comes at a critical time, not only because of the current Arctic temperature rises but in political terms.

Aides to the US president-elect, Donald Trump, this week unveiled plans to remove the budget for climate change science currently used by Nasa and other US federal agencies for projects such as examining Arctic changes, and to spend it instead on space exploration.

“That would be a huge mistake,” said Carson, noting that much more research needs to be done on polar tipping points before we can understand the true dangers, let alone hope to tackle them. “It would be like ripping out the aeroplane’s cockpit instruments while you are in mid-flight.”

He added: “These are very serious problems, very serious changes are happening, but they are still poorly understood. We need more research to understand them. A lot of the major science is done by the US.”

[...]

Read complete article >>

100s rescued at the border of nicaraqua and costa rica. sounds terrible.
73. SLU
Yale Climate Program @YaleClimateComm 21h21 hours ago
Although 97% of #climate scientists agree, only 1/2 of Americans believe #globalwarming is happening & human-caused


:) ;)
Quoting 73. SLU:

Yale Climate Program %u200F@YaleClimateComm 21h21 hours ago
Although 97% of #climate scientists agree, only 1/2 of Americans believe #globalwarming is happening & human-caused


:) ;)


What, are we celebrating ignorance and science denial?
Why would you ask that, Naga?
Good Morning. On the death of Fidel Castro, good riddance. My Father was born in Cuba in 1926, joined the Cuban Air Force in 1945, was a pilot/aviator until 1960 when he had to flee Cuba (he and his crews dropped a lot of bombs on Fidel and his rebels), went back and flew/fought in the Bay of Pigs, then became a CIA contract aviator dropping more bombs on Communist rebels in Africa and Latin America (who routinely pillaged villages and killed innocent men, women, and children) in the 1960s-70s and he also turned 90 (same age as Fidel) last week. I just called Dad and he is a happy man today because Fidel executed or jailed many of his friends (for 20 year terms) who were not able to get out.

His biggest regret is the memories of his friends and of how Fidel won the revolution (perhaps rightfully so against a corrupt Batista regime) but then dupped all of the Cuban people by declaring, after he consolidated his power, that he was actually a Leninist-Communist and that the Cuban "revolution" was actually a Communist one. That is the real story of Fidel Castro..............An egomaniac dictator with a great hatred of the United States.

I can tell you a lot more but this is a weather blog but noting some of the comments.

Sorry to hear about the loss of life from Otto and hope that everyone had a great Thanksgiving.
Weather Underground is a commercial weather service providing real-time weather information via the Internet. Weather Underground provides weather reports for most major cities across the world on its website, as well as local weather reports for newspapers and websites. Most of its United States information comes from the National Weather Service (NWS), as federal law specifies that information from that agency falls within the public domain. The website is available in many languages, and customers can access an ad-free version of the site with additional features for an annual fee. Weather Underground is owned by The Weather Company, a subsidiary of IBM.[2] It airs from 6-8pm ET on TWC, and very rarely it would gain two extra hours (ending at 10pm ET) during storm coverage.
And IBM is the owner of WeatherUnderground!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
And as a point of history, the Cuban military knew he was a Communist in the late 50's because they often found Communist literature when they captured rebels and their camps but their warnings on this issue to the Cuban leadership and people fell on deaf ears because Fidel never mentioned it and clothed the revolution as a war of independence against US colonialism...............The Cuban people never suspected that he would become a Communist dictator until it was too late.
Quoting 76. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning. On the death of Fidel Castro, good riddance. My Father was born in Cuba in 1926, joined the Cuban Air Force in 1945, was a pilot/aviator until 1960 when he had to flee Cuba (he and his crews dropped a lot of bombs on Fidel and his rebels), went back and flew/fought in the Bay of Pigs, then became a CIA contract aviator dropping more bombs on Communist rebels in Africa and Latin America (who routinely pillaged villages and killed innocent men, women, and children) in the 1960s-70s and he also turned 90 (same age as Fidel) last week. I just called Dad and he is a happy man today because Fidel executed or jailed many of his friends (for 20 year terms) who were not able to get out.

His biggest regret is the memories of his friends and of how Fidel won the revolution (perhaps rightfully so against a corrupt Batista regime) but then dupped all of the Cuban people by declaring, after he consolidated his power, that he was actually a Leninist-Communist and that the Cuban "revolution" was actually a Communist one. That is the real story of Fidel Castro..............An egomaniac dictator with a great hatred of the United States.

I can tell you a lot more but this is a weather blog but noting some of the comments.

Sorry to hear about the loss of life from Otto and hope that everyone had a great Thanksgiving.


I have a friend who as a child lived during the revolution in Cuba, his family escaped to Puerto Rico, his dad was an Attorney, he told me of a story when the Revolutionary army pulled his neighbors out of their house early in the morning, lined them up against the house and machine gunned them all, killing his 9 year old best friend and his 6 year old sister. When I saw President Obama in Cuba sucking up to these animals I almost puked!
Hasta la vista to Fidel and Barrack for sucking up!
hope america never forgets what happened to many americans when we go meddling into other countries affairs. i will never forget vietnam and the brave americans that fought there.. thankfully for myself and friends the draft stopped right before i was eligible.
Quoting 79. trunkmonkey:



I have a friend who as a child lived during the revolution in Cuba, his family escaped to Puerto Rico, his dad was an Attorney, he told me of a story when the Revolutionary army pulled his neighbors out of their house early in the morning, lined them up against the house and machine gunned them all, killing his 9 year old best friend and his 6 year old sister. When I saw President Obama in Cuba sucking up to these animals I almost puked!
Hasta la vista to Fidel and Barrack for sucking up!


I take a different view point; my Dad was happy to see the Embargo open up under Obama, even though Dad is a conservative Republican, because he knew/knows how much it hurt the Cuban people in the long run and how much Castro used the Embargo as a weapon against his own people by blaming the Embargo/US for his own failed economic policy; same reason my Dad and I are very nervous about the Trump overtures towards Putin.....................I suggest that you need to read "The True Believer" by Eric Hoffer before making off the cuff comments and mixing apples and oranges. Respectfully, you don't have a clue based on your comment.









So, how many did Communism kill?
UPDATED: The historical reality of communist oppression is being ignored. But the truth must not be buried
Khmer_rouge
The killing fields of Cambodia
Robin_shepherd
Robin Shepherd, Owner / Publisher
On 5 October 2013 07:56

Why isn't the Black Book of Communism on the curriculum of every school in Europe? Because it isn't exhaustive enough? Because its authors lack credibility? Because there is still more to be understood and researched on the matter?

At more than 850 pages of carefully sifted evidence by a group of top-level scholars from a variety of countries and disciplines, the Black Book is as solid a piece of scholarship as any other you'll find being taught in our schools.

Is it definitive? How could it be? Communist regimes went to great lengths to conceal their crimes, and one of the most oppressive of all, North Korea, still exists to this day. What the book does is use the best available evidence to give a sense of the scale of what we are dealing with.

In introducing the Black Book, lead author Stephane Courtois, Director of Research at the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) in Paris, offers the following rough breakdown of the numbers of people that communism killed:

USSR -- 20 million

China -- 65 million

Vietnam -- 1 million

North Korea -- 2 million

Cambodia -- 2 million

Eastern Europe -- 1 million

Latin America -- 150,000

Africa -- 1.7 million

Afghanistan -- 1.5 million

Communist movements, parties not in power -- 10,000

In total, this is not far short of 100 million deaths at the hands of a single ideology. Nothing like this has ever happened before. (As an aside, my personal view is that the Nazi Holocaust of the Jews was the greatest single crime of the modern era, while communism was the greatest criminal system.)
Board is oddly quiet this morning. I wonder why that is?
Quoting 80. islander101010:

hope america never forgets what happened to many americans when we go meddling into other countries affairs. i will never forget vietnam and the brave americans that fought there.. thankfully for myself and friends the draft stopped right before i was eligible.
Seems like we have to keep relearning the lessons of the "law of un-intended consequences" over and over.
Quoting 83. PensacolaDoug:

Board is oddly quiet this morning. I wonder why that is?


Too much politics and perhaps my fault but the Castro issue is near and dear to my heart (I met several of my Father's friends in the late 70's after they were released from long prison terms and allowed to emigrate to the US; rail thin and crying when they walked into a US supermarket and seeing all the food and regular people shopping).

Enough of me this morning and some insight into the Cuban experience with my apologies.....................Everyone have a Great Weekend, enjoy the football games, and I will see Yall next week........................... :)
is there any chance X-otto makes it into the gulf..as a rain maker?..we sure could use it here........
.DISCUSSION...A few intense, but small and fast-moving showers
came onshore in Puerto Rico and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands.
In San Juan they left 0.12 inches as of 4 AM AST, which was just
enough to bring the total rainfall for the month there to 16.00
inches. This is now the wettest November on record since 1899
when
records began. The previous record was 15.96 inches in 1976.

We had to fill in the cistern this morning :///Something we normally don't do before march...... go figure...
I will always remember Fidel and what he have done for our country. You see, my country once being taken by the Americans from the 50s to 1975. And Fidel was the person who helps my country by giving ammunition and workers to the government. It's his merits that we have our freedom today. R.I.P our friend, Fidel. And R.I.P all people have died in the landfall of Otto.
Anyways I see interesting things in the models this morning. So I pray for some good rains.
The decades-long Cuban Embargo was an absolute failure. It's singular purpose was to propel a revolution that would push Castro out of power, a goal that, obviously, didn't work. In fact, Fidel and Raul's tag team outlasted ten US Presidents--Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush I, Clinton, Bush II, and Obama--and the only people to really suffer were the poor citizens of Cuba. Some of the old expatriate hard-liners in Miami and Tampa were always violently opposed to even the slightest whispers of rapprochement, but most of them are going or gone, and 2nd--and 3rd, and 4th--generation Cuban-Americans, and pretty much anyone else capable of taking the global view of things, see that Embargo as a once-good idea that should have been jettisoned many years ago. By any objective standard, Obama's reopening of relations with Cuba is a very good and very welcome thing; we can only hope against hope that the incoming administration ignores half-century old prejudices and ignorance and relies instead on logic, common sense, and compassion when deciding what to do with Cuba vis-a-vis the United States.
92. SLU
Quoting 87. CaribBoy:

.DISCUSSION...A few intense, but small and fast-moving showers
came onshore in Puerto Rico and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands.
In San Juan they left 0.12 inches as of 4 AM AST, which was just
enough to bring the total rainfall for the month there to 16.00
inches. This is now the wettest November on record since 1899
when
records began. The previous record was 15.96 inches in 1976.

We had to fill in the cistern this morning :///Something we normally don't do before march...... go figure...


Christ man. This is really serious. I hope you get at least 2 inches on Mon thru Thurs.
Quoting 91. Neapolitan:

The decades-long Cuban Embargo was an absolute failure. It's singular purpose was to propel a revolution that would push Castro out of power, a goal that, obviously, didn't work. In fact, Fidel and Raul's tag team outlasted ten US Presidents--Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush I, Clinton, Bush II, and Obama--and the only people to really suffer were the poor citizens of Cuba. Some of the old expatriate hard-liners in Miami and Tampa were always violently opposed to even the slightest whispers of rapprochement, but most of them are going or gone, and 2nd--and 3rd, and 4th--generation Cuban-Americans, and pretty much anyone else capable of taking the global view of things, see that Embargo as a once-good idea that should have been jettisoned many years ago. By any objective standard, Obama's reopening of relations with Cuba is a very good and very welcome thing; we can only hope against hope that the incoming administration ignores half-century old prejudices and ignorance and relies instead on logic, common sense, and compassion when deciding what to do with Cuba vis-a-vis the United States.

11, you left out Eisenhower.
94. SLU
Quoting 89. CaribBoy:

Anyways I see interesting things in the models this morning. So I pray for some good rains.


Yes it's the CMC but all the models agree that something will happen near the islands next week.

95. SLU


(checks ip address)

yeah, that's a local troll...flag, ignore, and move on
Quoting 18. gr8lakebreeze:



Whoa!


Today is November 26. Just sayin'
Quoting 97. georgevandenberghe:



Today is November 26. Just sayin'


Fair enough, this time of year especially I should keep it under 120hrs.
So how many deaths did American invasions and interventions in other countries result in? The numbers will be in the tens of millions.

Quoting 82. trunkmonkey:










So, how many did Communism kill?
UPDATED: The historical reality of communist oppression is being ignored. But the truth must not be buried
Khmer_rouge
The killing fields of Cambodia
Robin_shepherd
Robin Shepherd, Owner / Publisher
On 5 October 2013 07:56

Why isn't the Black Book of Communism on the curriculum of every school in Europe? Because it isn't exhaustive enough? Because its authors lack credibility? Because there is still more to be understood and researched on the matter?

At more than 850 pages of carefully sifted evidence by a group of top-level scholars from a variety of countries and disciplines, the Black Book is as solid a piece of scholarship as any other you'll find being taught in our schools.

Is it definitive? How could it be? Communist regimes went to great lengths to conceal their crimes, and one of the most oppressive of all, North Korea, still exists to this day. What the book does is use the best available evidence to give a sense of the scale of what we are dealing with.

In introducing the Black Book, lead author Stephane Courtois, Director of Research at the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) in Paris, offers the following rough breakdown of the numbers of people that communism killed:

USSR -- 20 million

China -- 65 million

Vietnam -- 1 million

North Korea -- 2 million

Cambodia -- 2 million

Eastern Europe -- 1 million

Latin America -- 150,000

Africa -- 1.7 million

Afghanistan -- 1.5 million

Communist movements, parties not in power -- 10,000

In total, this is not far short of 100 million deaths at the hands of a single ideology. Nothing like this has ever happened before. (As an aside, my personal view is that the Nazi Holocaust of the Jews was the greatest single crime of the modern era, while communism was the greatest criminal system.)
100. elioe
Now that there is a blog rebellion of political comments:

I think, that during the Cold War, in most small countries, there were two stable forms of government.

1) A dictator, which adhered to communism, and as such, acquired the support of Soviet Union.
2) A dictator, which adhered to capitalism, and as such, acquired the support of USA. That often meant having generous land-owning policies, to let U.S. companies acquire much land in such countries, putting local agrarian population into virtual serfdom.

Democracies were inherently open for massive superpower meddling in their internal affairs. In Latin America, only Brazil and Mexico seemed to be big enough to resist such meddling, but Brazil was internally unstable already since the collapse of monarchy in late 19th century.

Castro regime was no more evil than the U.S.-backed Pinochet regime in Chile, or U.S.-allied junta of Argentina. But Cuba remains the only staunch dictatorship of America. Perhaps, after the younger Castro also succumbs to old age, there will be a transition to democracy. Or at least some Xiaoping-style economic reforms allowing for living standards to improve.
Perhaps, someone on this blog can help me. I have been having issues with Wunderground since shortly before Thanksgiving. First the blog would not update on the main page such that I would have to click through as many as 4 blogs to get to the current one. Now much of the Wunderground page does not load. Not even the current forecasts and certainly none of the blogs. I have deleted the cache for Wunderground, signed in again, all to no avail. Anyone know what is going on here?
Riverside Municipal Airport 10-Day Forecast,
Quoting 101. VAstorms:

Perhaps, someone on this blog can help me. I have been having issues with Wunderground since shortly before Thanksgiving. First the blog would not update on the main page such that I would have to click through as many as 4 blogs to get to the current one. Now much of the Wunderground page does not load. Not even the current forecasts and certainly none of the blogs. I have deleted the cache for Wunderground, signed in again, all to no avail. Anyone know what is going on here?

They just forgot to update the link, I think. When this happens, click on "News and Blogs" on the main banner at the top of the page, then select "Dr. Masters." That will almost always take you to the most recent blog entry. As for your other troubles, I'm not sure what might be causing that. Internet Explorer does a poor job for me in displaying this site. I always browse it with Google Chrome and have no problems.
Quoting 83. PensacolaDoug:

Board is oddly quiet this morning. I wonder why that is?
Morning Matinee with Caligula being re-released..Nuthin like an evocative film to set the mood...:)
Ouhto break the silence!
Quoting 69. islander101010:

cuba? back in the late fifties they had a corrupt govt and the people were ready for change. if it wasnt Fidel it might of been another revolutionary. now look at today and the other countries in the region? anyone really doing much better than cuba? PRicos broke facing a huge debt. Mexico and most of the latin american countries people are afraid to go out in the dark. fact is cuba is still one of the carib. leaders and most likely will be in the future.


For us who are typically more staunchly predisposed to Western Idealism & possess an immediate polemic against anything other than democracy -this terse but relevant point can be a bit of a bitter pill to swallow... Nevertheless, in light of the bigger regional or global picture there is truly undeniably veracity in your point, and much food for thought in respect of case in point unadulterated reflective socio-economic/political frankness. Rather insightful indeed.

Re:- the tropics and the ominous outlook depending on which model one is following; the threat does exist for potential severe weather for the Leewards and some of the windward isles -lets hope that nothing devastating results or anything near the likes of Otto materializes. My continued prayers for all those who Lost Loved ones in Central America as a result. Eternal Rest Grant unto them Oh Lord! May they Rest in Peace!

God Bless!
Quoting 97. georgevandenberghe:



Today is November 26. Just sayin'

But...but...but...Doesn't the G in GFS stand for Gospel?
Quoting 82. trunkmonkey:


...the Black Book of Communism...

Criticism

Quoting 74. Naga5000:



What, are we celebrating ignorance and science denial?


I think given everything that has happened recently, we've gone beyond celebrating it and are now simply wallowing in it.
Quoting 109. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Greetings Keep...Hope you and yours had a Happy Thanksgiving...Is that a nudder blob tryin to spin up down there..?
Quoting 114. hydrus:

Greetings Keep...Hope you and yours had a Happy Thanksgiving...Is that a nudder blob tryin to spin up down there..?
just a perturbation lefts overs maybe the cyclonic movement appears drifting south in a wave type response heading into coastal northern south America
it should not form anything but hey weirder things have happen
Quoting 101. VAstorms:

Perhaps, someone on this blog can help me. I have been having issues with Wunderground since shortly before Thanksgiving. First the blog would not update on the main page such that I would have to click through as many as 4 blogs to get to the current one. Now much of the Wunderground page does not load. Not even the current forecasts and certainly none of the blogs. I have deleted the cache for Wunderground, signed in again, all to no avail. Anyone know what is going on here?


I'm using Chrome and having the same issues.
Quoting 117. DogtownMex:



I'm using Chrome and having the same issues.
I am using win 10 edge no problems set comments to 50 in the blogs pages it works best every thing seems ok for me but I will have to check around the site now see what you see
Quoting 107. ACSeattle:


But...but...but...Doesn't the G in GFS stand for Gospel?
AC , AC.....Giant Fake Storms...The word Gospel is about Jesus life and teachin from first four books in the NT...:)
someone forgot to set auto update for blog in main wunder page for the holidays
its kinda like a 4 day weekend likely looked into
first thing Monday morning local time

10 day forecast worked and everything else just the be in the know has not updated for me anyway
wundermap works as well with the latest service update in the pop up

We are working hard to restore important functionality to the WunderMap. The latest release includes some upgrades:
- Model Maps are back
- Save Prefs are back
- Opacity is now included in Share
- Weather stations layer settings are now included in Share
We will continue to work through feature and functionality issues. We appreciate your patience.
Quoting 100. elioe:

Now that there is a blog rebellion of political comments:

I think, that during the Cold War, in most small countries, there were two stable forms of government.

1) A dictator, which adhered to communism, and as such, acquired the support of Soviet Union.
2) A dictator, which adhered to capitalism, and as such, acquired the support of USA. That often meant having generous land-owning policies, to let U.S. companies acquire much land in such countries, putting local agrarian population into virtual serfdom.

Democracies were inherently open for massive superpower meddling in their internal affairs. In Latin America, only Brazil and Mexico seemed to be big enough to resist such meddling, but Brazil was internally unstable already since the collapse of monarchy in late 19th century.

Castro regime was no more evil than the U.S.-backed Pinochet regime in Chile, or U.S.-allied junta of Argentina. But Cuba remains the only staunch dictatorship of America. Perhaps, after the younger Castro also succumbs to old age, there will be a transition to democracy. Or at least some Xiaoping-style economic reforms allowing for living standards to improve.

Hello Elioe.... If Cuba is going to experience any beneficial changes, it will take a whole lot more De-Castroism to get anything accomplished.
well thats it for otto the season has ended

EP, 22, 2016112618, , BEST, 0, 88N, 953W, 30, 1008, DB
Quoting 125. thetwilightzone:

well thats it for otto the season has ended

EP, 22, 2016112618, , BEST, 0, 88N, 953W, 30, 1008, DB
it is finished or just about T-4 days remain 2016 EPAC/ATL Hurricane Season
Quoting 120. hydrus:

AC , AC.....Giant Fake Storms...The word Gospel is about Jesus life and teachin from first four books in the NT...:)

Picture me....on a bridge....in Oslo....at sunset
now we get into hurricane season review time
then long stretch into winter be quiet now minus high impact events
a few hang around all winter its the blogs quiet season
Quoting 81. weathermanwannabe:



I take a different view point; my Dad was happy to see the Embargo open up under Obama, even though Dad is a conservative Republican, because he knew/knows how much it hurt the Cuban people in the long run and how much Castro used the Embargo as a weapon against his own people by blaming the Embargo/US for his own failed economic policy; same reason my Dad and I are very nervous about the Trump overtures towards Putin.....................I suggest that you need to read "The True Believer" by Eric Hoffer before making off the cuff comments and mixing apples and oranges. Respectfully, you don't have a clue based on your comment.
Its a safe bet in my opinion that Trump and Putin will be just like old friends until some statement or action triggers the N rage phenomenon....Then pray neither of them are within reach of any Nuke device.
Quoting 128. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

now we get into hurricane season review time
then long stretch into winter be quiet now minus high impact events
a few hang around all winter its the blogs quiet season


un less we get a DEC or JAN storm
Death toll in Costa Rica for the hurricane Otto stands at 9. Most affected areas, as i had predicted several days ahead are Upala and some hill villages above Bagaces.
The 10 day Wunder Bestcast works. If your settings are for the 7 day NWS forecast and the 7 day won't load it's also locking your settings (the gear in the upper right). To get to Bestcast, first go to any other wunder page that isn't a forecast page, then the gear in the upper right and change preference to Bestcast.
133. elioe
I won't declare this season finished until New Year's Eve. Models predict above-average rainfall for the entire Caribbean in December. As if the ITCZ was to remain abnormally far to the north. The area around Lesser Antilles should have below-average shear. Perhaps some off-season surprises like Alice of 1954-55.
What about TS Olga in December 07, 'credited' withh 33 deaths?
Quoting 125. thetwilightzone:

well thats it for otto the season has ended

EP, 22, 2016112618, , BEST, 0, 88N, 953W, 30, 1008, DB


Looks like Otto wrapped up both the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific hurricane seasons. Crazy way to end a crazy year.

First hurricane to form in January since 1938 (Alex).
Earliest 3rd and 4th named storm on record (Colin & Danielle)
First Category 5 in the Atlantic since Hurricane Felix in 2007 (Matthew)
Lowest latitude Category 5 in the Atlantic (Matthew)
Deadliest Atlantic hurricane since Stan (Matthew)
Costliest Atlantic hurricane since Sandy (Matthew)
First Category 4 landfall in Haiti since Cleo (Matthew)
First major hurricane to make landfall in Bermdua since Fabian (Nicole)
Latest hurricane to make landfall in Nicaragua (Otto)
Southernmost hurricane to make landfall in Central America (Otto)
First active crossover of an Atlantic storm into the Eastern Pacific since Hurricane Cesar-Douglas (Otto)
Most active Atlantic hurricane season since 2012.
Deadliest since 2005.
Costliest since 2012.

Might have missed some, but those are the major ones I can think of. Without a doubt the wildest hurricane season since 2012. Obviously, the highlight of this season will be Matthew, but it's been a wild ride from Jan-November.
Quoting 119. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I am using win 10 edge no problems set comments to 50 in the blogs pages it works best every thing seems ok for me but I will have to check around the site now see what you see


Been having trouble lately with both firefox and opera, but only here.
137. imara
Quoting 104. hydrus:

Morning Matinee with Caligula being re-released..Nuthin like an evocative film to set the mood...:)

Quiet since for some reason when you click on the blog it takes you back to the blog on the 22nd. Took me a while to figure out to get to the current one. I am no novice either so many wondering why it is not updating off the home page if they think to look.

Here it comes....
Quoting 103. PensacolaBuoy:


They just forgot to update the link, I think. When this happens, click on "News and Blogs" on the main banner at the top of the page, then select "Dr. Masters." That will almost always take you to the most recent blog entry. As for your other troubles, I'm not sure what might be causing that. Internet Explorer does a poor job for me in displaying this site. I always browse it with Google Chrome and have no problems.


I'm on chrome in mac os and the site simply won't load. Never had this before. I get all of the outlines but no forecast, no blogs, no radar.
Do not forget to donate to Cards Against Humanity for their Holiday Hole being dug now live. Hilarious

Anyway the weather is a nice and sunny 35F here with a few inches of snow on the ground.
Quoting 137. imara:


Quiet since for some reason when you click on the blog it takes you back to the blog on the 22nd. Took me a while to figure out to get to the current one. I am no novice either so many wondering why it is not updating off the home page if they think to look.
So some of us may be missing out on past comments...Thats no good...:)
Looks like Otto is finished unless we get a December storm this season has ended, certainly an interesting season with things other seasons haven't accomplished.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
159 PM PST SAT NOV 26 2016

* AT 158 PM PST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS...WINDS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER...AND
SMALL HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 95 NM NORTHWEST OF POINT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS.
Quoting 138. PedleyCA:


Here it comes....


Raining yet Ped?
A few hours rain anyway......keep em coming.

Quoting 134. 19470915:

What about TS Olga in 07, 'credited' withh 33 deaths?
Olga crossed over Puerto Rico, I wasn't paying attention to the weather, I remembered only had an hour to get prepared after a call from my sister , all my Christmas decoration from the patio got destroyed...
Quoting 124. hydrus:

Hello Elioe.... If Cuba is going to experience any beneficial changes, it will take a whole lot more De-Castroism to get anything accomplished.
Fidel Castro a champion, survived 638 attempts against his life, ,mostly by the CIA, all failed...finally died peaceful of old age, my respect for the man, the leader and the revolutionary, RIP ...
Quoting 145. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Raining yet Ped?


Yup and WU is upping the forecast as we speak, always a good sign...
Quoting 111. Xandra:


Criticism


NO political system is perfect, article, "Cannibalistic Capitalism"... written by Pope John Paull II
Quoting 86. LargoFl:

is there any chance X-otto makes it into the gulf..as a rain maker?..we sure could use it here........

It could
Quoting 135. CybrTeddy:



Looks like Otto wrapped up both the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific hurricane seasons. Crazy way to end a crazy year.

First hurricane to form in January since 1938 (Alex).
Earliest 3rd and 4th named storm on record (Colin & Danielle)
First Category 5 in the Atlantic since Hurricane Felix in 2007 (Matthew)
Lowest latitude Category 5 in the Atlantic (Matthew)
Deadliest Atlantic hurricane since Stan (Matthew)
Costliest Atlantic hurricane since Sandy (Matthew)
First Category 4 landfall in Haiti since Cleo (Matthew)
First major hurricane to make landfall in Bermdua since Fabian (Nicole)
Latest hurricane to make landfall in Nicaragua (Otto)
Southernmost hurricane to make landfall in Central America (Otto)
First active crossover of an Atlantic storm into the Eastern Pacific since Hurricane Cesar-Douglas (Otto)
Most active Atlantic hurricane season since 2012.
Deadliest since 2005.
Costliest since 2012.

Might have missed some, but those are the major ones I can think of. Without a doubt the wildest hurricane season since 2012. Obviously, the highlight of this season will be Matthew, but it's been a wild ride from Jan-November.

Highest seasonal ACE (136) since 2010.
Quoting 149. PedleyCA:



Yup and WU is upping the forecast as we speak, always a good sign...
Just started at my place! keep it coming!
Quoting 114. hydrus:

Greetings Keep...Hope you and yours had a Happy Thanksgiving...Is that a nudder blob tryin to spin up down there..?
Something is spinning south of Hispaniola, that region has remain active, with lots of convection, above average sea water temperatures, but wind shear isn't favorable, ...
155. SLU
Quoting 135. CybrTeddy:



Looks like Otto wrapped up both the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific hurricane seasons. Crazy way to end a crazy year.

First hurricane to form in January since 1938 (Alex).
Earliest 3rd and 4th named storm on record (Colin & Danielle)
First Category 5 in the Atlantic since Hurricane Felix in 2007 (Matthew)
Lowest latitude Category 5 in the Atlantic (Matthew)
Deadliest Atlantic hurricane since Stan (Matthew)
Costliest Atlantic hurricane since Sandy (Matthew)
First Category 4 landfall in Haiti since Cleo (Matthew)
First major hurricane to make landfall in Bermdua since Fabian (Nicole)
Latest hurricane to make landfall in Nicaragua (Otto)
Southernmost hurricane to make landfall in Central America (Otto)
First active crossover of an Atlantic storm into the Eastern Pacific since Hurricane Cesar-Douglas (Otto)
Most active Atlantic hurricane season since 2012.
Deadliest since 2005.
Costliest since 2012.

Might have missed some, but those are the major ones I can think of. Without a doubt the wildest hurricane season since 2012. Obviously, the highlight of this season will be Matthew, but it's been a wild ride from Jan-November.


Well with an ACE of 135, 2016 has gone past 2012's tally of 133 making it the most active year since 2010!
156. SLU
My 2016 forecast did pretty good. I predicted in April that we would have 15 to 19 storms, 7 to 9 hurricanes and 3 to 5 major hurricanes with an ACE of 140. The final numbers should be 15-7-3 135.

Quoting 151. Weatherfan1013:


It could


Except for the fact it is no longer a system. Looks like Otto was was last storm in the Atlantic and Pacific.
Quoting 148. HuracanTaino:

Fidel Castro a champion, survived 638 attempts against his life, ,mostly by the CIA, all failed...finally died peaceful of old age, my respect for the man, the leader and the revolutionary, RIP ...
Good evening H.T...I do not like to see " killing " period.....This was a complex and long series of events leading up to, and the eventual overthrow of Batista,s corrupt government. Batista did something that American government considers a cardinal sin, and that is to suspend the Constitution and take away the liberty of citizens. Some folks have been trying to do that here for a very long time, by increasing the gap between the rich and the poor, and becoming extremely wealthy in the process. Most Castro's wealth came from deals made through the American Mafia and governmental manipulation, killing tens of thousands in the process. Castro may be a " champion " to you, but by adopting the communistic Marxist type government that is responsible for killing millions, backing and supporting other counties to do the same thing, is not only wrong, but a blatant violation of Human Rights Laws. Him and his socialism schemes,and working the same unlawful trades that mimic organized crime that happens around the world, plus gaining tremendous personal wealth at the same time, hardly makes him a hero in my opinion, and millions of Cubans that felt the same way back in the late 1970's, left the country, ended up in Southern Florida where I lived back then. It was a disaster, crime rate skyrocketed because of it. I understand where you are coming from, but Castro is not a hero from my viewpoint....There are many folks from Southern Florida would agree with me on this..
159. SLU
From Global Weather Oscillations:

"2017 and 2018 will be the most active and dangerous in more than a decade"

"2017 Hurricane Season: Will be as Dangerous and possibly more Expensive than the 2016 Season"

Link
Quoting 159. SLU:

From Global Weather Oscillations:

"2017 and 2018 will be the most active and dangerous in more than a decade"

"2017 Hurricane Season: Will be as Dangerous and possibly more Expensive than the 2016 Season"

Link
Hello Slu...I mentioned earlier this year that the hyperactive phase wasnt over yet..If it did end, it certainly would have been one of the shortest active phases recorded.
161. SLU
Quoting 160. hydrus:

Hello Slu...I mentioned earlier this year that the hyperactive phase wasnt over yet..If it did end, it certainly would have been one of the shortest active phases recorded.


To be honest, 2015 showed us the Atlantic still had life in it with one of the biggest El Ninos ever but we still had quite a bit of activity. Only the dry air in July to September prevented 2016 from exploding like 2010. So if the dry air stays away next year, we could see a pretty big season with no El Nino on the cards.
Quoting 91. Neapolitan:

The decades-long Cuban Embargo was an absolute failure. It's singular purpose was to propel a revolution that would push Castro out of power, a goal that, obviously, didn't work. In fact, Fidel and Raul's tag team outlasted ten US Presidents--Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush I, Clinton, Bush II, and Obama--and the only people to really suffer were the poor citizens of Cuba. Some of the old expatriate hard-liners in Miami and Tampa were always violently opposed to even the slightest whispers of rapprochement, but most of them are going or gone, and 2nd--and 3rd, and 4th--generation Cuban-Americans, and pretty much anyone else capable of taking the global view of things, see that Embargo as a once-good idea that should have been jettisoned many years ago. By any objective standard, Obama's reopening of relations with Cuba is a very good and very welcome thing; we can only hope against hope that the incoming administration ignores half-century old prejudices and ignorance and relies instead on logic, common sense, and compassion when deciding what to do with Cuba vis-a-vis the United States.
I`m, a person with Cuban heritage background, a very cruel embargo, and intent to starved a poor weaker neighbor. Just because they decided to have a different political system. Not presenting danger to anybody. The "Misiles crisis " is gone, and the Soviet Union as well. But the embargo persist. A giant "masada", nevertheless they succeeded in many ways, education, life expectancy, sports and a great health system envy by many, A miracle that they avoided famine. All those accomplishment due to the embargo, without almost any resources, specially after the fall of the Soviet Union..
Quoting 159. SLU:

From Global Weather Oscillations:

"2017 and 2018 will be the most active and dangerous in more than a decade"

"2017 Hurricane Season: Will be as Dangerous and possibly more Expensive than the 2016 Season"

Link


That outfit seems to believe we're headed into an ice-age in a couple of years...for reals.

Facepalm
Quoting 135. CybrTeddy:



Looks like Otto wrapped up both the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific hurricane seasons. Crazy way to end a crazy year.

First hurricane to form in January since 1938 (Alex).
Earliest 3rd and 4th named storm on record (Colin & Danielle)
First Category 5 in the Atlantic since Hurricane Felix in 2007 (Matthew)
Lowest latitude Category 5 in the Atlantic (Matthew)
Deadliest Atlantic hurricane since Stan (Matthew)
Costliest Atlantic hurricane since Sandy (Matthew)
First Category 4 landfall in Haiti since Cleo (Matthew)
First major hurricane to make landfall in Bermdua since Fabian (Nicole)
Latest hurricane to make landfall in Nicaragua (Otto)
Southernmost hurricane to make landfall in Central America (Otto)
First active crossover of an Atlantic storm into the Eastern Pacific since Hurricane Cesar-Douglas (Otto)
Most active Atlantic hurricane season since 2012.
Deadliest since 2005.
Costliest since 2012.

Might have missed some, but those are the major ones I can think of. Without a doubt the wildest hurricane season since 2012. Obviously, the highlight of this season will be Matthew, but it's been a wild ride from Jan-November.


Addendum: Kori's first ever hurricane chases in the form of Hermine and Matthew, of which he remains gleefully proud.

:D
Looks like we might finally see some severe weather across southern Arkansas possibly extending southward to Louisiana as well. Arkansas appears to have the highest risk of a greater-end event, with a brief squall line/attendant wind threat possible, where low-mid/upper-level shear profiles appear like they will be more juxtaposed. Ah, who am I kidding? We'll probably end up with complete garbage here in south Louisiana. Like, I'm sure we'll be under the tail end of SPC's hypothetical slight risk, get one decent thunderstorm cell near the LA/MS stateline that teases and prompts a special weather advisory, and literally nothing but rain for the remainder of the event. Calling it now. :)
Quoting 161. SLU:



To be honest, 2015 showed us the Atlantic still had life in it with one of the biggest El Ninos ever but we still had quite a bit of activity. Only the dry air in July to September prevented 2016 from exploding like 2010. So if the dry air stays away next year, we could see a pretty big season with no El Nino on the cards.


Define "big season", because a very active season can still end up a low-impact season overall, as years like 1984, 1990, and 2010 demonstrated. And I'm not talking strictly about the US, either. I feel like there's a misconception that more storms = more landfalls. Statistically, you'd certainly have a higher chance of getting a hurricane strike somewhere the more storms you have, but it doesn't always hold true. We got "lucky" that we had a persistent enough ridge this year to give the Caribbean three hurricanes, and of course, Hermine and Matthew into the US. Remove the ridge and it'd probably be the same slew of junk we've seen for years.

Having said that, I do agree that 2017 should at least be near-average. Even if you assume -AMO/ PDO multidecadal cycle is now at hand like I do, the climatological return period of El Nino's during the last such period in the 1970s and 1980s wasn't that swift.
Quoting 163. gr8lakebreeze:



That outfit seems to believe we're headed into an ice-age in a couple of years...for reals.

Facepalm
Quoting 143. Weatherfan1013:

Looks like Otto is finished unless we get a December storm this season has ended, certainly an interesting season with things other seasons haven't accomplished.

I doubt we will get a December hurricane...but we got Alex in January so who knows
Quoting 55. vis0:


u got mail

hope you had a ful(l)filling thanksgiving.
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
who is chopping wood?

I try to split a little kindling every day.
Quoting 135. CybrTeddy:



Looks like Otto wrapped up both the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific hurricane seasons. Crazy way to end a crazy year.

First hurricane to form in January since 1938 (Alex).
Earliest 3rd and 4th named storm on record (Colin & Danielle)
First Category 5 in the Atlantic since Hurricane Felix in 2007 (Matthew)
Lowest latitude Category 5 in the Atlantic (Matthew)
Deadliest Atlantic hurricane since Stan (Matthew)
Costliest Atlantic hurricane since Sandy (Matthew)
First Category 4 landfall in Haiti since Cleo (Matthew)
First major hurricane to make landfall in Bermdua since Fabian (Nicole)
Latest hurricane to make landfall in Nicaragua (Otto)
Southernmost hurricane to make landfall in Central America (Otto)
First active crossover of an Atlantic storm into the Eastern Pacific since Hurricane Cesar-Douglas (Otto)
Most active Atlantic hurricane season since 2012.
Deadliest since 2005.
Costliest since 2012.

Might have missed some, but those are the major ones I can think of. Without a doubt the wildest hurricane season since 2012. Obviously, the highlight of this season will be Matthew, but it's been a wild ride from Jan-November.

I am surprised Colin broke a record, it sucked
LPL. Clicked "post comment" and got a message that said "no such entry." But I see the comment posted just fine anyway.
Quoting 171. Barefootontherocks:

LPL. Clicked "post comment" and got a message that said "no such entry." But I see the comment posted just fine anyway.



I've been having issues with this blog for days. In fact, entry 3510 is still the one that's appearing on the hurricane page for me. I've had to change the URL in order to access this one.
Hi Kori, My habit is to access this and all blogs from the blog list. No problems that route. Only troubles I have is signing in. (Add: Well, other than the aforementioned non-existent existence.) Now, when I sign in, I get the weather page for Atlanta GA. Used to be at sign in I came back to the same page I logged in on.
Some snow tonight. Checking the model run percentages on Der Weatherschnitzel app has been making the household kiddos nuts. Yay! 80%*! Boo! 20%*! Yay! 50%*. and so on.

We're looking like to expect our typical 3ish inches of snow in the early morning hours. Kiddos are happy. The pigs will grump, and the goats will blame me for it of course. And I'm darned glad I put that cat door in my trailer. One of the feral farm cats showed up last night, my happy trailer cats just shifted over and made room. He actually ended up on the bed on my legs until the alarm went off. I'm wondering who else is gonna sneak in when the snow starts.
Quoting 160. hydrus:

Hello Slu...I mentioned earlier this year that the hyperactive phase wasnt over yet..If it did end, it certainly would have been one of the shortest active phases recorded.

Some people who read this right now will be next years wishcasters :)
Now that the hurricane season is almost over, here is the list! Please fill in the blanks with nicknames. Some have already done for you, but you can edit these as well. Have fun!!!

A is for Astonishing Alex


B is for


C is for


D is for


E is for


F is for


G is for Gastonic Gaston


H is for Horrible Hermine (AKA The Little Storm that Could)


I is for


J is for


K is for


L is for


M is for Monstrous Matthew


N is for Naughty Nicole


O is for Outstanding Otto
Matthew will certainly be retired but not sure about the others for now.
Wearing socks tonight in the Florida Keys - yes really.

From the Key West NWS discussion today (wow)...

.CLIMATE...
On this date in Key West history, in 1885, a high temperature of 61
degrees was measured. This set the daily record for coldest high
temperature for November 26th, and also tied the record for coldest
high temperature in the month of November in Key West. This is a
robust record that still stands after 131 years. Temperature records
for Key West date back to 1872.


Quoting 177. washingtonian115:

Matthew will certainly be retired but not sure about the others for now.

I'd say on the crazy train Alex, Hermine, and Otto would be retired simply for the craziness they were (Hermine broke the record hurricane drought in Florida)
Quoting 158. hydrus:

Good evening H.T...I do not like to see " killing " period.....This was a complex and long series of events leading up to, and the eventual overthrow of Batista,s corrupt government. Batista did something that American government considers a cardinal sin, and that is to suspend the Constitution and take away the liberty of citizens. Some folks have been trying to do that here for a very long time, by increasing the gap between the rich and the poor, and becoming extremely wealthy in the process. Most Castro's wealth came from deals made through the American Mafia and governmental manipulation, killing tens of thousands in the process. Castro may be a " champion " to you, but by adopting the communistic Marxist type government that is responsible for killing millions, backing and supporting other counties to do the same thing, is not only wrong, but a blatant violation of Human Rights Laws. Him and his socialism schemes,and working the same unlawful trades that mimic organized crime that happens around the world, plus gaining tremendous personal wealth at the same time, hardly makes him a hero in my opinion, and millions of Cubans that felt the same way back in the late 1970's, left the country, ended up in Southern Florida where I lived back then. It was a disaster, crime rate skyrocketed because of it. I understand where you are coming from, but Castro is not a hero from my viewpoint....There are many folks from Southern Florida would agree with me on this..
Well said.
Quoting 156. SLU:

My 2016 forecast did pretty good. I predicted in April that we would have 15 to 19 storms, 7 to 9 hurricanes and 3 to 5 major hurricanes with an ACE of 140. The final numbers should be 15-7-3 135.




Active year, but extremely boring for me. Look at that map! Fish storms everywhere east of the L.A :/
Matthew will obviously be retired, but I wouldn't be surprised if Earl is also retired for its death toll in Central America.

Indian Hills PWS showed .12, How much did you get JOE??
Quoting 146. HurricaneHunterJoe:

A few hours rain anyway......keep em coming.



Good soaking rain and a period of strong winds early this AM with the frontal passage here in the SF Bay Area. On and off instability showers all day and continuing right now, forecast to continue thru tomorrow. No thunder yet, and no lightning showing up on the detectors.
Quoting 179. Icybubba:


I'd say on the crazy train Alex, Hermine, and Otto would be retired simply for the craziness they were (Hermine broke the record hurricane drought in Florida)


Hurricanes aren't retired for being on a crazy train. I'd be surprised if Hermine was retired, same goes for Alex and to an extent, Otto.
186. vis0

Quoting 160. hydrus:

Hello Slu...I mentioned earlier this year that the hyperactive phase wasnt over yet..If it did end, it certainly would have been one of the shortest active phases recorded.
[cue the scifi (musical) harp bkgnd music] it (the hype) was just shifted by the device in my imagination...or just coinkydink.

i saw the USC (football) game, palm trees swaying with heavy sprinkles ...even rain?

for upcoming week drive safely as first cooler rains might bring up the baked- into asphalt summer oils on the roads.
Oh, I'd like to add this to Cyber's list of notable achievements from 2016: the Caribbean saw three hurricane landfalls, the highest such number since 2008, when Gustav, Ike, and Paloma struck Hispaniola and Cuba, respectively.

Since I didn't see it listed. >_>
Quoting 179. Icybubba:


I'd say on the crazy train Alex, Hermine, and Otto would be retired simply for the craziness they were (Hermine broke the record hurricane drought in Florida)


Don't go there. <_<
Quoting 176. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

Now that the hurricane season is almost over, here is the list! Please fill in the blanks with nicknames. Some have already done for you, but you can edit these as well. Have fun!!!

A is for Astonishing Alex


B is for


C is for


D is for


E is for


F is for


G is for Gastonic Gaston


H is for Horrible Hermine (AKA The Little Storm that Could)


I is for


J is for


K is for


L is for


M is for Monstrous Matthew


N is for Naughty Nicole


O is for Outstanding Otto


People have already names a few on prior blogs

Such as:

B for Born-again Bonnie (as it regenerated after opening up once)
C for Crappy Colin (sloppy mess of a storm)
D for Dopey Dolly (never really could amount to much)
E for Egregious Earl (pulled himself together just in time to cause a surprising amount of damage)
F for Flimsy Fiona (OTS and never much of a storm)
G for Gastonic Gaston (he was a lovely hurricane)
H for Hermine the Headache (sorry, but she was painful at first invest... although she did end up becoming a pretty respectable storm in the end)
I for (Un)Iconic Ian (he was there but no one saw or cared because he never could amount to much)
J for Julia the Joker (she pulled a fast one on us by refusing to develop before magically changing her mind over Florida)
K for Klutzy Karl (he tried and tried to make hurricane strength, but each time he got close he choked (on dry air))
L for Lackadaisical Lisa (see Ian)
M for Monstrous Matthew/Matthew the Monstrous or Malevolent Matthew (a historical storm for all the wrong reasons)
N for Naughty Nicole (Like the name: she did whatever she was told not to do by strengthening when forecasters told her to stop)
O for Outstanding Otto or Otto the Oddity (he managed a lot of firsts)

I mixed some new names in there, many already being put there before.
Quoting 188. KoritheMan:



Don't go there. <_<

Yeah I doubt Alex or Hermine would be retired, though I can see Otto being retired, probably still unlikely. I'd say Nicole but Hermine did more than Nicole, honestly we are probably just going to see Matthew get retired
One I forgot to mention was Earl, he and Matthew are the closet contenders for a retirement
Quoting 191. Icybubba:

One I forgot to mention was Earl, he and Matthew are the closet contenders for a retirement


Matthew isn't a contender. He's flat out gonna win no contest.
A scary/sad observation while scouring hurricane archives - Every Category 5 storm recorded in the North Atlantic basin managed to cause damage and life loss. Only one Cat. 5 managed to avoid getting it's assigned name retired, and that was Carol 1953 which still caused damage and life loss. All the others had their names retired or were worthy of having their names retired (really old hurricanes that had the name of the area they landfall).
Quoting 192. KoritheMan:



Matthew isn't a contender. He's flat out gonna win no contest.

Well yeah, but if you are in the Olympics and you are dominating everyone, you are still a contender
Quoting 183. PedleyCA:


Indian Hills PWS showed .12, How much did you get JOE??


The "0.00" in Palm Springs, is what sent me packing to Seattle! Looking at the area, doesn't look like Joe will have gotten too much, unless he happened under a sweet spot. Happy there is any for you guys! Been getting various reports from my friends from San Diego to San Francisco, but all good ones when ANY rain is involved.

Been pretty cold here in the North West UK lately. Good sleeping weather, cuddled up in my fuzzy warm blanket :)
Quoting 194. Icybubba:


Well yeah, but if you are in the Olympics and you are dominating everyone, you are still a contender


Darn... defeated by semantics again. :l
Quoting 181. CaribBoy:



Active year, but extremely boring for me. Look at that map! Fish storms everywhere east of the L.A :/


Now you know why I don't glorify storms east of the Lesser Antilles. Unless they head into the heart of the Caribbean itself, the most land impact you're typically gonna get is gonna be in Bermuda. There's a ton of troughs from Africa to the United States, and usually even a couple in the central Atlantic between there and the Lesser Antilles. People have misconceptions that bridging highs are common, but they're not. Get me a storm south of Hispaniola like Matthew, then we'll talk.
Was a quarter inch shy of 9" of rain for Nov when I posted last night. Didn't think I'd be over 10.5 today! Wet, wet and more wet weather this fall here in Acme WA. 21.5" since the beginning of Oct.
I'm more than a 1/4" shy of 9 inches....

--
Still waiting for the snow to fly.

Remnant of Otto headed toward the fount of a subtropical jet streaming toward the central US.

Another surge of moisture pushing into California right now. Frequent showers tonight here in the SF Bay Area and along the coast with moderate snow being reported down to 5000 ft in the Sierra at Blue Canyon, and also at Tahoe. Subtropical jet being directed toward the central US by the cold front that pushed thru CA earlier this morning (Sat).
An almost-tropical storm is about to cross Gibraltar, from Atlantic into Mediterranean.
https://caymannewsservice.com/2016/11/cayman-facing -driest-year-in-history/
For Korithe
Morning everyone ...
"WX Geeks" host Marshall Shepherd reflects on this "year-long" hurricane season in a Forbes essay published Friday.

While it seems unlikely that we will see an additional storm in December, I wouldn't rule out the possibility, given that we never really have gotten the la nina we were expecting. Despite our normal closing date, I'll be checking the tropics and subtropics from time to time.....
Quoting 128. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

now we get into hurricane season review time
then long stretch into winter be quiet now minus high impact events
a few hang around all winter its the blogs quiet season
Dec 1 is the beginning of the Southern hemisphere season... I haven't even seen their outlook yet..... I'm behind!
For the uninitiated, South Indian, Australian and South Pacific storms can do pretty interesting between January and March, that is if you're interested in the cyclone phenomenon and not just what impacts you ....

Quoting 135. CybrTeddy:



Looks like Otto wrapped up both the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific hurricane seasons. Crazy way to end a crazy year.

First hurricane to form in January since 1938 (Alex).
Earliest 3rd and 4th named storm on record (Colin & Danielle)
First Category 5 in the Atlantic since Hurricane Felix in 2007 (Matthew)
Lowest latitude Category 5 in the Atlantic (Matthew)
Deadliest Atlantic hurricane since Stan (Matthew)
Costliest Atlantic hurricane since Sandy (Matthew)
First Category 4 landfall in Haiti since Cleo (Matthew)
First major hurricane to make landfall in Bermdua since Fabian (Nicole)
Latest hurricane to make landfall in Nicaragua (Otto)
Southernmost hurricane to make landfall in Central America (Otto)
First active crossover of an Atlantic storm into the Eastern Pacific since Hurricane Cesar-Douglas (Otto)
Most active Atlantic hurricane season since 2012.
Deadliest since 2005.
Costliest since 2012.

Might have missed some, but those are the major ones I can think of. Without a doubt the wildest hurricane season since 2012. Obviously, the highlight of this season will be Matthew, but it's been a wild ride from Jan-November.
There's gotta be a record in there for the Bahamas. Matthew was certainly the worst New Providence has experienced in many years, and insured costs here are probably 1/3 actual costs to residents. We also experienced the closest approach of a major since at latest Frances, and probably more likely the 1920s. Even Andrew passed to our north, minimizing impacts here somewhat; Matthew's approach trajectory hasn't been experienced here for at least 35 years [David]. But none of this seems like record breaking stuff.....
206. elioe
Quoting 179. Icybubba:


I'd say on the crazy train Alex, Hermine, and Otto would be retired simply for the craziness they were (Hermine broke the record hurricane drought in Florida)


Certainly "99L" would have to be retired from invest numbering lists.
Quoting 197. KoritheMan:



Now you know why I don't glorify storms east of the Lesser Antilles. Unless they head into the heart of the Caribbean itself, the most land impact you're typically gonna get is gonna be in Bermuda. There's a ton of troughs from Africa to the United States, and usually even a couple in the central Atlantic between there and the Lesser Antilles. People have misconceptions that bridging highs are common, but they're not. Get me a storm south of Hispaniola like Matthew, then we'll talk.

However you do get exceptions like Andrew or Hermine
208. SLU
Quoting 193. isothunder67:

A scary/sad observation while scouring hurricane archives - Every Category 5 storm recorded in the North Atlantic basin managed to cause damage and life loss. Only one Cat. 5 managed to avoid getting it's assigned name retired, and that was Carol 1953 which still caused damage and life loss. All the others had their names retired or were worthy of having their names retired (really old hurricanes that had the name of the area they landfall).


Emily 2005 wasn't retired.

209. SLU
Quoting 167. KoritheMan:



Define "big season", because a very active season can still end up a low-impact season overall, as years like 1984, 1990, and 2010 demonstrated. And I'm not talking strictly about the US, either. I feel like there's a misconception that more storms = more landfalls. Statistically, you'd certainly have a higher chance of getting a hurricane strike somewhere the more storms you have, but it doesn't always hold true. We got "lucky" that we had a persistent enough ridge this year to give the Caribbean three hurricanes, and of course, Hermine and Matthew into the US. Remove the ridge and it'd probably be the same slew of junk we've seen for years.

Having said that, I do agree that 2017 should at least be near-average. Even if you assume -AMO/ PDO multidecadal cycle is now at hand like I do, the climatological return period of El Nino's during the last such period in the 1970s and 1980s wasn't that swift.


1990 was a non-event for the US but it was a high impact year for Mexico with Hurricane Diana and the Lesser Antilles with Hurricane Klaus. Both of those names were retired.

2010 was also a quiet year for the US but was a high impact year for Central America and the Caribbean with Hurricanes Alex, Earl, Karl, Richard and Tomas and with Tropical Storm Nicole all killing hundreds and causing billions of dollars in damage.

But in my context, a "big season" is based on ACE and not landfalls especially only US-related.
210. SLU
Quoting 181. CaribBoy:



Active year, but extremely boring for me. Look at that map! Fish storms everywhere east of the L.A :/


Technically you did experience a 'tropical storm' on August 24th when Invest 99L (pre-Hermine) produced 35 to 40kts winds in your area. The only difference is that the RECON could not close off the center at that time. ;)



I think Otto should be retired just on the basis of its impact on Costa Rica, which unfortunately didn't get noticed in the blog -- 9, at least, dead, and a lot of (mostly uninsured) damaged infrastructure and homes. I hope CR will register a desire for retirement.
212. elioe
Wow. Now I realize, how much I've got right with my 2016 hurricane season prediction.

There has been a Cat 5 hurricane named Matthew, it has moved just offshore of Florida, and made landfall in Carolinas.

There has been a hurricane landfall in the nature reserve of SE Nicaragua, and the system has entered Pacific as a tropical storm.

The system named "Colin" existed June 5 - June 7.

Florida hurricane drought has ended with a landfall on west coast.

Of course, I have got many things terribly wrong, such as predicting a very active July.
Quoting 205. BahaHurican:

Dec 1 is the beginning of the Southern hemisphere season... I haven't even seen their outlook yet..... I'm behind!
For the uninitiated, South Indian, Australian and South Pacific storms can do pretty interesting between January and March, that is if you're interested in the cyclone phenomenon and not just what impacts you ....

There's gotta be a record in there for the Bahamas. Matthew was certainly the worst New Providence has experienced in many years, and insured costs here are probably 1/3 actual costs to residents. We also experienced the closest approach of a major since at latest Frances, and probably more likely the 1920s. Even Andrew passed to our north, minimizing impacts here somewhat; Matthew's approach trajectory hasn't been experienced here for at least 35 years [David]. But none of this seems like record breaking stuff.....


I'm sure there is. The Bahamas also experienced a Category 4 hurricane last year with Joaquin too. It's been a rough two years for you guys.
'Thunderstorm asthma' deaths in Melbourne rise to six
BBC, 8 hours ago

Thunderstorm asthma: 'You're talking an event equivalent to a terrorist attack'
A perfect storm of factors that triggered a mass asthma event and claimed at least six lives in Melbourne has perplexed health experts, who believe climate change may be the missing piece in the puzzle
Guardian, Saturday 26 November 2016 23.25 GMT

Peaceful Sunday, everyone!
Quoting 176. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

Now that the hurricane season is almost over, here is the list! Please fill in the blanks with nicknames. Some have already done for you, but you can edit these as well. Have fun!!!

A is for Astonishing Alex


B is for


C is for


D is for


E is for


F is for


G is for Gastonic Gaston


H is for Horrible Hermine (AKA The Little Storm that Could)


I is for


J is for


K is for


L is for


M is for Monstrous Matthew


N is for Naughty Nicole


O is for Outstanding Otto
Maybe Otto needs notice for being "Two-ways Otto" or something like that, for its palindromic name and for being named Otto on both sides of Central America.
216. elioe
Quoting 215. Barefootontherocks:

Maybe Otto needs notice for being "Two-ways Otto" or something like that, for its palindromic name and for being named Otto on both sides of Central America.


Other side Otto ?
Hope everyone's well at WU! It certainly looks like we're done with TCs in the Atlantic and East Pac this season. It was a very interesting year for the Atlantic. Above normal activity by every metric. More active than I expected. It still didn't quite have the feel to me of a classic active era hurricane season. A lot of activity away from the deep tropics. I'd have expected more than two storms in the Caribbean. Very little ACE between the start of August and when Matthew formed in late September, with the exception of Gaston. Two of our hurricanes at very strange times of the year. Every season's different though; that's what makes it fun. Onto the next one...

As far as impact goes, clearly the season will be remembered most for Matthew, and Hermine to a lesser extent. Matthew was pretty much a worst case scenario for Haiti. The US, luckily, was spared the worst, as was the case with Hermine, which could have turned out much worse if some initial model projections had verified. Still, it was the most impactful year for the US since 2012. Not to mention the "no-name" flood in Louisiana.
Quoting 216. elioe:



Other side Otto ?
Hi elioe,
I'd say that covers Otto's TC history well. What about its name being the same no matter which way you read it? O-t-t-o... O-t-t-o. Otto. I haven't been able about to come up with a good word that covers both the double-basin hurricane and the palindrome of Otto's name. Maybe "Two-sided Otto"? Lol
NWS Slidell/New Orleans wording for tomorrow.


NWS NEW ORLEANS
Jason Box:
‏@climate_ice

Sea ice loss to blame, STUNNING past 26 day AVERAGE: Arctic seas 9 to 19 C above normal, N America 1 to 9 C above. Eurasia 1 to 9 C below.

I haven't seen an environment this hostile since my last holiday with my in-laws.

Quoting 201. BayFog:


Another surge of moisture pushing into California right now. Frequent showers tonight here in the SF Bay Area and along the coast with moderate snow being reported down to 5000 ft in the Sierra at Blue Canyon, and also at Tahoe. Subtropical jet being directed toward the central US by the cold front that pushed thru CA earlier this morning (Sat).



keep in mind that snow has been reported has low has 3,000ft in the sierra with heavy snow all night above that so please check the web cames out be for you make a post

Link
Quoting 221. Grothar:

I haven't seen an environment this hostile since my last holiday with my in-laws.




the season is now closed and we are in late NOV so what you are seeing at there is normal for this time of year
Lackluster Lisa
sorry wrong post
Wrong storm reported earlier, this is the correct info....
IMO the start of Atlantic hurricane season should be moved up to May 15 to match with the EPAC. The Atlantic has seen a May storm in 2007 (Andrea), 2008 (Arthur), 2009 (TD 1), 2012 (Alberto and Beryl), 2015 (Ana) and 2016 (Bonnie), which is 6 of the last 10 seasons.
For Entertainment Purposes Only:

Wikipedia lists Otto as a category 3 is that a mistake?
Quoting 231. all4hurricanes:

Wikipedia lists Otto as a category 3 is that a mistake?


As of now yes. However, in post analysis some believe that it will be upgraded.
Quoting 229. HurricaneFan:

IMO the start of Atlantic hurricane season should be moved up to May 15 to match with the EPAC. The Atlantic has seen a May storm in 2007 (Andrea), 2008 (Arthur), 2009 (TD 1), 2012 (Alberto and Beryl), 2015 (Ana) and 2016 (Bonnie), which is 6 of the last 10 seasons.


I often wonder why there is an official start to the season.
Quoting 231. all4hurricanes:

Wikipedia lists Otto as a category 3 is that a mistake?


nop please read this

Unexpectedly, on November 24, it rapidly intensified into a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 105 mph and a pressure of 976 mb.[20] Otto reached Category 2 status later in the season than any previous Atlantic hurricane on record.[5] At around 18:45 UTC, Otto made landfall near the Nicaragua–Costa Rica border with winds of 110 mph (175 km/h), making Otto the southernmost hurricane to hit Central America on record.[21] Otto also matched a 1934 hurricane as the strongest observed so late in the season.[22] The NHC noted that the strength of Otto at landfall was "at least" 110 mph (175 km/h), suggesting that it could have reached major—Category 3 or higher—status.
Has the blog been tweaking again?
Quoting 218. Barefootontherocks:

Hi elioe,
I'd say that covers Otto's TC history well. What about its name being the same no matter which way you read it? O-t-t-o... O-t-t-o. Otto. I haven't been able about to come up with a good word that covers both the double-basin hurricane and the palindrome of Otto's name. Maybe "Two-sided Otto"? Lol

Opposite Otto.
Storm rainfall total at my mountain Soo Cal location is .70" and looks like another wave coming through this afternoon.

NWS San Diego rainfall totals .

Link
Quoting 232. Bucsboltsfan:



As of now yes. However, in post analysis some believe that it will be upgraded.
it likely will be but we have to wait and see what the NHC does in the season review
So far .70" rainfall at my mountain location in San Diego County Soo Cal. Having trouble posting the link for NWS San Diego area of responsibility for storm totals thus far. Have seen several 1"-2" totals so far in mountains and 1/4-1" Coast and Valleys....almost or better than the storm last week. Looks like more coming as another smaller/weaker waves comes thru this afternoon.


PRELIMINARY STORM PRECIPITATION TOTALS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO
1030 AM PST SUNDAY NOV 27 2016

*STATIONS ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL MAY NOT SHOW
ACCURATE ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION.

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION STORM TOTALS AS OF

_________________________1000 AM SUNDAY_________________________


.TOP RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ALL ZONES

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEVATION(FT)

1. LAKE CUYAMACA 2.09 4560
2. JULIAN RAWS 1.59 4240
3. BIRCH HILL 1.30 5645
4. VOLCAN MOUNTAIN 1.29 5410
5. PINE HILLS FS 1.25 3645
6. MT. LAGUNA NORTH 1.21 6265
7. MT. WOODSON 1.18 1720
8. LOWER OSO CREEK 1.14 220
9. UPPER SILVERADO CYN 1.02 2880
10.PINE COVE MESONET 1.01 6325


.SNOWFALL (IN) REPORTS AS OF 10 AM SATURDAY

4-6 LONG VALLEY RANGER STN
4-5 GREEN VALLEY LAKE
5 BIG BEAR LAKE
3-4 IDYLLWILD
2-3 LAKE ARROWHEAD
2 FOREST FALLS
2 WRIGHTWOOD
1-2 RUNNING SPRINGS
1 MT LAGUNA



-------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------


.SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEVATION(FT)
ENCINITAS 0.73 242
OCEANSIDE 0.62 30
VISTA 0.61 440
KEARNY MESA 0.56 455
SAN MARCOS LANDFILL 0.54 766
SD LINDA VISTA 0.52 270
CPEN FALLBROOK RAWS 0.50 876
CARLSBAD AIRPORT 0.49 357
EL CAMINO DEL NORTE 0.47 50
CARLSBAD EAST 0.46 610
CPEN LAKE ONEILL 0.46 109
CARLSBAD 0.45 305
LAS FLORES RAWS 0.45 100
FASHION VALLEY 0.44 20
SD UNIVERSITY HEIGHTS 0.41 345
SAN ONOFRE 0.41 162
LA JOLLA 0.38 275
SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND 0.36 1520
MONTGOMERY FIELD 0.31 423
MISSION BEACH 0.28 8
SAN DIEGO INTL AIRPORT 0.28 42
SD CITY HEIGHTS 0.24 305
BROWN FIELD 0.24 524
SAN YSIDRO 0.20 30
TIJUANA ESTUARY 0.20 20
CHULA VISTA 0.18 120
SMUGGLERS GULCH 0.16 74
GOAT CANYON 0.12 110
POINT LOMA 0.09 364

.SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEVATION(FT)
MT. WOODSON 1.18 1720
ALPINE RAWS 0.96 2041
RANCHO BERNARDO 0.93 690
HARBISON CANYON 0.92 1240
RANCHO BERNARDO MESONET 0.90 690
RAMONA AIRPORT 0.83 1400
LAKESIDE 0.80 625
ALPINE 0.80 1700
MIRAMAR LAKE 0.80 130
RAINBOW CAMP 0.75 1553
LAKE WOHLFORD 0.75 1490
FLINN SPRINGS 0.74 880
LOS COCHES CREEK 0.72 560
SD COUNTRY ESTATES 0.71 1660
ELFIN FOREST 0.68 625
POWAY 0.68 440
ESCONDIDO 0.67 640
GOOSE VALLEY RAWS 0.60 1530
SKYLINE RANCH 0.58 562
RINCON SPRINGS 0.57 970
RAMONA 0.56 1420
BARONA 0.56 1280
RED MOUNTAIN 0.54 1600
THOUSAND TRAILS 0.54 740
VALLEY CENTER RAWS 0.54 1370
VALLEY CENTER 0.52 1295
DEER SPRINGS 0.51 1000
COLE GRADE RD 0.49 750
GRANITE HILLS 0.47 533
FALLBROOK 0.45 675
EL CAJON 0.44 493
SCRIPPS RANCH EAST 0.43 930
BONSALL CRS 0.42 185
LAKE MURRAY 0.40 530
COUSER CANYON 0.39 285
LOWER OAT FLATS 0.37 2239
CAMP TRGT RANGE RAWS 0.36 917
LA MESA 0.30 530
SAN MIGUEL RAWS 0.24 425
LYONS PEAK 0.22 3710
SANTEE NORTH 0.20 505

.SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEVATION(FT)
LAKE CUYAMACA 2.09 4560
JULIAN RAWS 1.59 4240
BIRCH HILL 1.30 5645
VOLCAN MOUNTAIN 1.29 5410
PINE HILLS FS 1.25 3645
MT. LAGUNA NORTH 1.21 6265
PALOMAR CRS 1.18 5387
PINE HILLS RAWS 1.17 3600
DESCANSO 1.15 3329
LA JOLLA AMAGO 1.13 2400
LA JOLLA ERN TANKS 1.11 3000
MESA GRANDE 1.11 3204
DESCANSO RAWS 1.05 3480
DESCANSO RS 1.03 3650
PALOMAR MOUNTAIN RAWS 0.89 5530
BOUCHER HILL 0.86 5440
ECHO DELL 0.86 3060
VALLECITOS REPEATER 0.79 2945
SANTA YSABEL 0.75 2990
VOLCAN MNT. MESONET 0.74 5210
PALOMAR OBSERVATORY 0.73 5560
HENSHAW DAM 0.73 2750
MOUNT LAGUNA RAWS 0.70 5760
OAK GROVE RAWS 0.63 2770
BIG BLACK MOUNTAIN 0.51 4055
OTAY MOUNTAIN RAWS 0.49 3283
CAMERON RAWS 0.46 3443
RANCHITA RAWS 0.42 4180
WARNER SPRINGS 0.36 3040
SKY OAKS 0.32 4970
MT LAGUNA 0.30 6000
RANCHITA 0.28 4008
WARNER SPRINGS MESONET 0.26 3050
TIERRA DEL SOL 0.24 4000
CAMPO 1N 0.12 2610
CAMPO ASOS 0.09 2609

.SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEVATION(FT)
SAN FELIPE 0.23 2280
BORREGO PALM CANYON 0.12 790
COYOTE CK 0.05 1189
BORREGO SPRINGS 0.04 500
OCOTILLO WELLS 0.04 425
OCOLTILLO WELLS SOUTH 0.03 149
CANEBRAKE 0.02 1000
AGUA CALIENTE 0.01 1222

.ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEVATION(FT)
LOWER OSO CREEK 1.14 220
LAGUNA NIGUEL PARK 0.90 200
SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO 0.75 75
BELL CANYON 0.73 700
E GARDEN GVE/WNTRSBRG 0.63 120
MOULTON PEAK REPEATER 0.63 888
ANAHEIM BARBER CITY 0.59 5
GARDEN GROVE 0.59 80
LAGUNA BCH @ WOODLAND 0.59 47
PICO RETARDING BASIN 0.59 760
ORANGE WEST 0.56 120
JOHN WAYNE AIRPORT 0.56 50
LAKE FOREST 0.55 970
LAGUNA CYN REPEATER 0.55 530
OCEANVIEW 0.55 43
PETERS CANYON WASH 0.55 40
SEGUNDA DESHECA 0.53 85
SANTIAGO CREEK 0.51 120
SANTA ANA ENGINEERING 0.51 170
YORBA LINDA 0.48 370
SAN DIEGO CK @ CULVER 0.48 70
VILLA PARK DAM 0.48 560
ALAMEDA STORM CHANNEL 0.48 339
WESTMINSTER CHANNEL 0.48 40
SAN DIEGO CK @ CAMPUS 0.48 20
COSTA MESA 0.47 47
LAGUNA AUDUBON 0.47 314
UPPER ALISO CREEK 0.47 560
SANTA ANA FIRE 0.46 112
SAN JUAN GUARD 0.44 660
CORONA DEL MAR 0.43 300
EL MODENA-IRVINE 0.43 70
LOWER SILVERADO CYN 0.43 1100
YORBA RESERVOIR 0.39 300
HUNTINGTON BEACH 0.39 20
SANTA ANA DELHI CHNL 0.39 24
LAGUNA HILLS 0.38 400
GILBERT RETARDING BSN 0.36 100
BEE CANYON 0.36 755
UPPER OSO CREEK 0.36 420
SAN CLEMENTE PIER 0.34 25
FULLERTON CREEK 0.28 95
BREA OLINDA 0.27 750
FULLERTON AIRPORT 0.26 96
BREA 2W 0.19 340
FULLERTON CSU 0.17 240
MILLER BASIN 0.02 220

.SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEVATION(FT)
UPPER SILVERADO CYN 1.02 2880
UPPER HARDING CYN 0.86 4254
SANTA ROSA PLATEAU 0.77 1980
SILVERADO MOTORWAY 0.74 3969
MODJESKA CANYON 0.55 1260
EL CARISO RAWS 0.54 2660
SIERRA PEAK 0.53 3040
FREMONT CANYON RAWS 0.53 1781
EL CARISO 0.51 2600
SANTIAGO CREEK 0.49 1210
SYLVAN MEADOWS 0.48 1892
SANTIAGO PEAK 0.28 5660

.SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEVATION(FT)
WILSON CREEK 0.44 2235
YUCAIPA REGIONAL 0.44 2620
CRAFTON RESERVOIR 0.43 2000
SAN TIMOTEO LANDFILL 0.40 1766
HIGHLAND PLUNGE CREEK 0.36 1911
SMALL CANYON DAM 0.35 1810
ELDER CREEK 0.35 1649
PLUNGE CREEK CANYON 0.35 1590
CAL ST SAN BERNARDINO 0.27 1556
ELDER GULCH 0.27 2933
CORONA LUISENO 0.25 1395
ELY BASIN 0.24 832
RECHE CANYON 0.24 1021
ONTARIO AIRPORT 0.20 922
GLEN HELEN REG PARK 0.20 2000
DALEY SPUR 0.20 2680
RIALTO AIRPORT 0.19 1418
LARSON RANCH 0.16 2121
RIALTO CHANNEL 0.16 1018
SAN BERNARDINO CO YRD 0.16 1033
HEMLOCK BURN 0.16 2280
DAY CANYON 0.15 1880
ALTA LOMA 0.12 1940
SAN ANTONIO HEIGHTS 0.12 2335
ONTARIO FS #4 0.12 1081
LYTLE CREEK CANYON 0.12 3060
CUCAMONGA CANYON 0.11 1766
CUCAMONGA BASIN 0.08 1551
CHINO AIRPORT 0.04 650

.RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEVATION(FT)
BEAUMONT 0.63 2624
PIGEON PASS DAM 0.56 1700
RIVERSIDE SOUTH 0.52 875
CABAZON RAWS 0.52 2155
TEMECULA 0.51 1180
BEAUMONT RAWS 0.50 2680
HEMET VALLE VISTA 0.49 2050
VAIL LAKE 0.48 1470
MORENO-CLARK 0.44 1810
MURRIETA 0.42 1250
WOODCREST DAM 0.40 861
CRANSTON RAWS 0.39 1950
CLARK RAWS 0.39 1718
FRENCH VALLEY 0.37 1425
RIV PRESIDENTIAL PARK 0.37 880
FRENCH VALLEY AIRPORT 0.36 909
HEMET/RYAN FIELD 0.35 1510
MURRIETA CK AT TENAJA 0.35 1100
RIVERSIDE AIRPORT 0.32 847
PERRIS CDF 0.32 924
PORTRERO CANYON 0.32 2220
SKINNER LAKE 0.32 1700
RIVERSIDE - MARCH ARB 0.24 1535
NORCO 0.23 650
GILMAN HOT SPRINGS 0.23 1511
LAKE MATTHEWS RAWS 0.16 1522
RAILROAD CANYON DAM 0.08 1420

.RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEVATION(FT)
PINE COVE MESONET 1.01 6325
KEENWILD RAWS 0.73 4920
BANNING BENCH 0.59 3619
VISTA GRANDE RAWS 0.59 4700
VISTA GRANDE 0.56 4939
POPPET FLAT RAWS 0.52 3830
SAGE RAWS 0.43 2560
TICK RIDGE 0.35 4236
PINYON PINES RAWS 0.33 4060
IDYLLWILD 0.18 5370
Sorry for the long double post.....Blog did post my link, it just hung up on my end......More scattered showers on the way....they look weak but get orographic lift and turn out better than they look on this radar which is actually from Bakerfield CA which is a ways from San Diego.

Quoting 230. gr8lakebreeze:

For Entertainment Purposes Only:



Yes, this is for entertainment purposes only. I looked at this same exact model run yesterday and it had almost the entire country way above normal for December 12 and now it has completely flip-flopped and shows an artic outbreak across the entire country. This model is not reliable at all that far out in advance. Remember this map for December 13th in your mind and then compare it to what it says 3 days from now, 7 days from now, 10 days from now and then look at what actually transpires on the 13th of December. You will then give yourself a good laugh. I would love to know where this cold air is supposed to come from, there is no cold air in Canada, none in the north pole, even Siberia has moderated as well. I don't see this happening, at least not of this magnitude anyway. We shall see, and probably laugh too.
Quoting 233. Bucsboltsfan:



I often wonder why there is an official start to the season.


Same reason we have an official start to Summer, Winter, Spring, and Fall...
Quoting 237. EmsiNasklug:


Opposite Otto.

Excellent. I think you've got it.
Quoting 243. Dakster:



Same reason we have an official start to Summer, Winter, Spring, and Fall...

Hurricanes are expected all year around; the naming starts in January 1 and ends in Dec.31, so no need for another notion.
Ongoing Otto. Its remnants seem to be Organizing.
Matthew is certainly going to be retired. Belize or Mexico might ask for Earl. Belize because Earl damage was the worst since Iris and Mexico because of the huge death toll for them. Mexico dont usually ask retirements for damage like it was the case for Alex and Karl in 2010 but they do when it comes in death toll , So I am not going to be surprised if Earl is also axe from the list. Otto might be gone too if CR ask for retirement as damage is expected to be high, those are my thoughts for now.
Just wanted to shout out to Astrometeor -- I noticed you attend Millersville University; I graduated from there many, many moons ago -- so long ago it was called Millersville College back then! Good luck with the end of your semester.
Quoting 212. elioe:

Wow. Now I realize, how much I've got right with my 2016 hurricane season prediction.

There has been a Cat 5 hurricane named Matthew, it has moved just offshore of Florida, and made landfall in Carolinas.

There has been a hurricane landfall in the nature reserve of SE Nicaragua, and the system has entered Pacific as a tropical storm.

The system named "Colin" existed June 5 - June 7.

Florida hurricane drought has ended with a landfall on west coast.

Of course, I have got many things terribly wrong, such as predicting a very active July.

Your Shary prediction was really close to Otto
Quoting 211. CaneFreeCR:

I think Otto should be retired just on the basis of its impact on Costa Rica, which unfortunately didn't get noticed in the blog -- 9, at least, dead, and a lot of (mostly uninsured) damaged infrastructure and homes. I hope CR will register a desire for retirement.

I could see 3 getting retired, Earl, Matthew, and Otto
The experts expect up to 6 inches of rain in 24h between monday and tuesday. They also forecast a 2day- event. LOL

See the full forecast here (french) : Link

Nothing normal in terms of precip in our region
Nothing at all

Quoting 223. thetwilightzone:



the season is now closed and we are in late NOV so what you are seeing at there is normal for this time of year
https://www.rt.com/viral/368093-tokyo-japan-snow-sh ock/
I want torrential rain to erase the ridiculously big oct/nov deficit!
I see Matthew being retired (doesn't everyone?) but I don't see any other worthy candidates for retirement.
11/22/2016 — This forecast page is being replaced. Please update your bookmarks to
http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wxrmaps/.
The new page has improved functionality and many new maps. Enjoy!
Quoting 255. BaltimoreBrian:

I see Matthew being retired (doesn't everyone?) but I don't see any other worthy candidates for retirement.

Hermine did more the 100million in damages to Pasco County alone and then went on to wreck millions in Pecans in GA and more in crops in NC. I think it's a shoo in for retirement.


Hundreds of Veteran are heading to Standing Rock..self deploying to protect the Water Protectors.
I'll respectfully disagree--Hermine was a Cat 1 and didn't produce catastrophic damage or many fatalities. Not worthy of retirement in my opinion.
Skeleton Lake of Roopkund, India: A lake with hundreds of ancient skeletons surrounding it. The surprise is what killed them…

After decades of fruitless investigation, it now appears that all 200 people died from a sudden and severe hailstorm.

263. SLU
Quoting 251. CaribBoy:

The experts expect up to 6 inches of rain in 24h between monday and tuesday. They also forecast a 2day- event. LOL

See the full forecast here (french) : Link




Rather bullish forecast.....
264. elioe
Quoting 255. BaltimoreBrian:

I see Matthew being retired (doesn't everyone?) but I don't see any other worthy candidates for retirement.


Depends on the standards of affected country. Earl is a good candidate for retirement, since Mexico experienced such a high death toll. I guess there is no precedent to show, how keenly Costa Rica or Panama requests retirement? In their local context, the damage and deaths from Otto were likely to be exceptional.

.11 in the last 6 hours....
'Þeos tid oð midne winter': An Anglo-Saxon Sermon for the First Sunday in Advent

Quoting 243. Dakster:



Same reason we have an official start to Summer, Winter, Spring, and Fall...
I disagree. The official start of the seasons is astronomical. Not that it really matters.
It's been raining, a lot.


Special Weather Statement
430 AM PST SUN NOV 26 2016

...HEAVY RAINFALL SINCE WEDNESDAY IS LEADING TO AN INCREASED THREAT OF LANDSLIDES IN WESTERN WASHINGTON...

RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGING FROM .75 TO 3 INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON SINCE FRIDAY. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL ADDS TO ALREADY SATURATED SOIL FROM RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUT EXTRA PRESSURE ON SOIL INSTABILITY...LEADING TO AN INCREASED THREAT OF LANDSLIDES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT CURRENT CONDITIONS...VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE...SELECT HYDROLOGY...AND THEN SCROLL DOWN FOR THE LINKS TO THE LANDSLIDE INFORMATION PAGES.

TO REPORT LANDSLIDES TO THE STATE FOR TABULATION...GO TO THE WASHINGTON STATE LANDSLIDE RISK WEB PAGE AND THE LINK FOR REPORTING.




Check out the USGS pages here. We are well above the minimum antecedent conditions to produce landslides. Here's hoping for a break soon.
Was at the Bucs/Seahawks game today. The flyover was a NOAA Hurricane Hunter jet. I have a video but I'm having trouble getting it loaded. Btw, nice win for the Bucs. Beautiful weather at the stadium today.
270. Tcwx2
Matthew and Gaston almost perfect! Looking forward to seeing your prediction next year.
Quoting 212. elioe:

Wow. Now I realize, how much I've got right with my 2016 hurricane season prediction.

There has been a Cat 5 hurricane named Matthew, it has moved just offshore of Florida, and made landfall in Carolinas.

There has been a hurricane landfall in the nature reserve of SE Nicaragua, and the system has entered Pacific as a tropical storm.

The system named "Colin" existed June 5 - June 7.

Florida hurricane drought has ended with a landfall on west coast.

Of course, I have got many things terribly wrong, such as predicting a very active July.
Quoting 263. SLU:



Rather bullish forecast.....


I would be happy if it does materialize. We really need that rain... :)

But to be honest, I doubt it will happen. Dominica will take it all as usual lol.
272. beell
A hint of discrete cells ahead of the cold front/squall line in southwest Lousiana on the 00Z HRRR.


00Z HRRR Simulated Reflectivity-valid 10AM CST Monday


00Z HRRR Significant Tornado Potential-valid 12PM CST, Monday
Hello Winter Storm Blanche

How many anti Winter Storm naming people did I trigger?
https://caymannewsservice.com/2016/11/cayman-facing -driest-year-in-history/

During our peak rainy season we had virtually no rain

I believe it has to do with the crazy jet streams and how much it impacts on shear. I saw 120 kts due north in the middle of the gulf at 430 and at 300 that's a massive amount of air moving at a crazy rate of speed

Haven't seen them that strong that far south at that altitude in my lifetime

Korithe what do you think
Quoting 264. elioe:



Depends on the standards of affected country. Earl is a good candidate for retirement, since Mexico experienced such a high death toll. I guess there is no precedent to show, how keenly Costa Rica or Panama requests retirement? In their local context, the damage and deaths from Otto were likely to be exceptional.
Excellent analysis the standards vary by country. You might find a analog for Costa Rica. Cesar in 1996 produce a much higher monetary damage in CR than Nicaragua it also kill 39 with 29 missings. Imo CR was the one that ask for the name instead of Nicaragua.
Quoting 180. Kenfa03:

Well said.
mmmmm



Nice rains for Soo Cal especially in the mountains where orographic lift squeezed more rain out. We will take it gladly.

Nice rains for Soo Cal especially in the mountains where orographic lift squeezed more rain out. We will take it gladly.

Quoting 277. CaribBoy:

mmmmm




Paula?
Quoting 277. CaribBoy:

mmmmm




Its the NAM wouldnt even trust it 24 hours in advance.
Quoting 237. EmsiNasklug:


Opposite Otto.



Ocean-hopping Otto
you guys keep saying that otto is the strongest hurricane ever for so late in the season

what ever happen too Hurricane Paloma? it had winds of 145 mph it Formed NOV 8th and Dissipated nov 14th wont Hurricane Paloma make it the strongest hurricane for so late in the season and otto the 2nd strongest ?

even no otto Formed nov 21st and and Dissipated nov 26th that really not that far be hide from when Paloma formed and dissipated by only a week apart

Link

after doing a little more looking up

the strongest nov hurricane ever would be hurricane lenny with 155 mph winds

Link

so here what i have

1st place gos too hurricane lenny for the strongets NOV hurricane

2nd place gos too Hurricane Paloma for being the 2nd strongest hurricane in nov and being a late season storm

3rd place would be hurricane otto for being the 3rd strongest hurricane for late NOV yes dont get me wrong it is the strongest hurricane ever for being that far S for late NOV but it is not the strongest hurricane ever for being so late is the season that falls too hurricane lenny

all so i like too point out that hurricane lenny Formed on nov 13th and Dissipated on nov 23rd so even no otto is still the lastes hurricane too ever formed for so late in the season the other too storms i pointed out are not that far behid

so saying that hurricane otto is the strongest hurricane ever for late NOV is not ture at all yes it may be the strongest for being that far S and the latest hurricane ever too formed that far S for late NOV but no where near the strongest hurricane for late NOV in order for otto too be the strongest hurricane ever for lat NOV it needs too have winds at 160 mph other wise otto is at 3rd place for the strongest hurricane ever for NOV


bob or jeff what would your takes be on this or any one else
284. vis0
Thunder asthma??? When i first saw the headline i thought it was related to pets (particularly dogs) becoming scared as to thunder, read (see cmmnt 214 of pg5 in THIS blogbyte)
Thunder Asthma deaths in Australia.

back to observing what seems to be the next WxTrend??? strong storms throughout the mid-west southward??? NOT PREDICTION just observing the first few days of what i call a (~2 month) wxTrend
285. vis0

Quoting 283. thetwilightzone:

you guys keep saying that otto is the strongest hurricane ever for so late in the season

what ever happen too Hurricane Paloma? it had winds of 145 mph it Formed NOV 8th and Dissipated nov 14th wont Hurricane Paloma make it the strongest hurricane for so late in the season and otto the 2nd strongest ?

even no otto Formed nov 21st and and Dissipated nov 26th that really not that far be hide from when Paloma formed and dissipated by only a week apart

Link

after doing a little more looking up

the strongest nov hurricane ever would be hurricane lenny with 155 mph winds

Link

so here what i have

1st place gos too hurricane lenny for the strongets NOV hurricane

2nd place gos too Hurricane Paloma for being the 2nd strongest hurricane in nov and being a late season storm

3rd place would be hurricane otto for being the 3rd strongest hurricane for late NOV yes dont get me wrong it is the strongest hurricane ever for being that far S for late NOV but it is not the strongest hurricane ever for being so late is the season that falls too hurricane lenny

all so i like too point out that hurricane lenny Formed on nov 13th and Dissipated on nov 23rd so even no otto is still the lastes hurricane too ever formed for so late in the season the other too storms i pointed out are not that far behid

so saying that hurricane otto is the strongest hurricane ever for late NOV is not ture at all yes it may be the strongest for being that far S and the latest hurricane ever too formed that far S for late NOV but no where near the strongest hurricane for late NOV in order for otto too be the strongest hurricane ever for lat NOV it needs too have winds at 160 mph other wise otto is at 3rd place for the strongest hurricane ever for NOV


bob or jeff what would your takes be on this or any one else
WxU mem Eloie??? brought this up (well as to first place) 2 days ago, lets see how its researched...maybe MamaNana will throw in a wintwer season TS just to add to the conversation.
Good morning all!! Winding down to the finale of a rather eventful 2016.... we hope! I still would not be surprised to see another named system, but I'm thinking probably not .... 😁 Cool and breezy here this morning ... gotta get going!
287. MahFL
Quoting 269. Bucsboltsfan:

Was at the Bucs/Seahawks game today. The flyover was a NOAA Hurricane Hunter jet. I have a video but I'm having trouble getting it loaded. Btw, nice win for the Bucs. Beautiful weather at the stadium today.



They only have one jet, so it must have been THE jet :). Glad the Bucs won :P.
nam was right about one thing. intense thunderstorms in carib boys neck of the woods
Quoting 282. ABlass:



Ocean-hopping Otto
Oddo
283. Otto was the most intense hurricane recorded in the Atlantic so late in the calendar year even though it wasn't the strongest Atlantic hurricane recorded in the month of November. Otto formed nearly two weeks later than Hurricane Paloma in 2008 and reached its peak intensity a week later than Lenny did in 1999.
Good Morning Folks; nice to see some rain around North America this week; not enough pursuant to the Drought Monitor issued on Thanksgiving morning but a little bit of rain in a very tall bucket: I drove through South Georgia into Atlanta for Thanksgiving on the same route I have driven for the past several years because of all of the beautiful fields (veggies and cotton).  This drive, all of the grass and pastures were yellowish from the lack of rain as opposed to the nice green you normally see; the drive was green just six months ago.





Current U.S. Drought Monitor


292. elioe
Interesting times ahead in the N Indian Ocean basin.



By t=240h, there is possibly "Cyclone Nada" in Arabian Sea, currently Invest 91B, after it has hit northeastern part of Tamil Nadu and traversed the peninsula. Meanwhile another system becomes possibly "Cyclone Vardah" in the Bay of Bengal, moving towards Bangladesh. Neither should be extremely strong system.
And some snow in the West is also most appreciated for snow-pack purposes:


Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop
And finally here is the Conus jet relative to pockets where we could see some strong T-storms today with the enhanced risk category in parts of the South:





Quoting 242. dartboardmodel:


Yes, this is for entertainment purposes only. I looked at this same exact model run yesterday and it had almost the entire country way above normal for December 12 and now it has completely flip-flopped and shows an artic outbreak across the entire country. This model is not reliable at all that far out in advance. Remember this map for December 13th in your mind and then compare it to what it says 3 days from now, 7 days from now, 10 days from now and then look at what actually transpires on the 13th of December. You will then give yourself a good laugh. I would love to know where this cold air is supposed to come from, there is no cold air in Canada, none in the north pole, even Siberia has moderated as well. I don't see this happening, at least not of this magnitude anyway. We shall see, and probably laugh too.


Agree, unless you read "Poor Richard's".


They still expect 6" next 24h.. and a 2days event...

BUT of course, I see the strongest convection moving towards Guadeloupe, Dominica and Martinique :/



The daytime heating element of the severe weather threat for parts of the South is a little bit in question given the relatively mild temps along the Northern Gulf coast areas this afternoon but the rain will be welcome:



Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database

that was a scary blog warp-
I just ended up on a blog page from 2005, about a full-circle rainbow

it was a Jeff Masters blog... AND I just read an article about Charity Hospital in NOLA, before I came here

ugghh...gonna be one of those messed-up timeline days.
The full circle 360 rainbow was Dr Masters first ever blog entry,..or #1.

Good morning

It's very cool 72, feeling like 72, cloudy and rainy on the island at the moment.

Am so glad that Cariboy is getting some of this! I do believe it's time he got a share of the mosquito population too :-} All this is doing for me is reinforcing the cistern - not that I'm complaining because I know that harder times are on the way, sooner rather than later, BUT I do miss swimming and the beaches! Water run off pollutes the beaches and I won't take a chance on picking up something.

I've been busy collecting pieces of different hibiscus plants, growing them in pots, and then creating hedges around our property. My plan is coming to fruition and will be so beautiful when they all catch up with each other.

Hoping things are good with all you folks out there!

Lindy

Quoting 222. thetwilightzone:




keep in mind that snow has been reported has low has 3,000ft in the sierra with heavy snow all night above that so please check the web cames out be for you make a post

Link


We're right around 4000' (3970) and we got a light dusting yesterday. Highs in the 40's, the greenhouses stayed pleasantly warm even with the mostly cloudy conditions.
Quoting 273. Icybubba:

Hello Winter Storm Blanche

How many anti Winter Storm naming people did I trigger?


AAAUUUUUUUUGH

(n.b. I was born during a snowstorm, 9 months after the Ash Wednesday Storm of 1962. It's only right and proper.)
Quoting 273. Icybubba:

Hello Winter Storm Blanche

How many anti Winter Storm naming people did I trigger?


I do name Winter Storms, but only those that bring wintry precip to this WFO


The first name on the list is "Ahriman".
Quoting 297. CaribBoy:



They still expect 6" next 24h.. and a 2days event...

BUT of course, I see the strongest convection moving towards Guadeloupe, Dominica and Martinique :/




I hope you get some rain CariBoy we got some here in St.thomas cleared out for the moment
The rain is here and falling non stop since early this morning, but intensities are moderate (18mm so far at best... :/).
Quoting 305. rockcity340:

I hope you get some rain CariBoy we got some here in St.thomas cleared out for the moment


I won't be surprise if we don't even get to 2" and the sky clears out this afternoon :( The big convections want to miss us.
First blog ever? Oh no.
Gonna hafta hold on TIGHT to today.

Timelines keep getting looser and slipperier.
Quoting 303. nonblanche:



AAAUUUUUUUUGH

(n.b. I was born during a snowstorm, 9 months after the Ash Wednesday Storm of 1962. It's only right and proper.)
Morning Blanche...My Father talks about that storm. When he talks, and that is rare...
Quoting 308. aquak9:

First blog ever? Oh no.
Gonna hafta hold on TIGHT to today.

Timelines keep getting looser and slipperier.


Reminds me of a novel by the late Kurt Vonnegut
Reaching 1"... just 1"...
Active shooter Ohio State. Seven taken to hospitals.

ABC News Live Stream
Quoting 312. GeoffreyWPB:




Looks like a cold front sweeping thru the Carribbean
Winds gusting to 48mph about 90 miles SE of Galveston. Gale warnings in affect for offshore waters.
Quoting 313. GeoffreyWPB:

Active shooter Ohio State. Seven taken to hospitals.

ABC News Live Stream


Nine now taken to hospital, one critical
One suspect down, one suspect left ...in a grey mini van from what I am reading
Quoting 313. GeoffreyWPB:

Active shooter Ohio State. Seven taken to hospitals.

ABC News Live Stream
and there's the glitch in today's timeline... I knew something bad was gonna happen.
not sure if that is just a cold front......
these are normally in the western carib..........just way too much shear due to that insane jet
Quoting 314. RitaEvac:



Looks like a cold front sweeping thru the Carribbean
Quoting 281. allancalderini:

Its the NAM wouldnt even trust it 24 hours in advance.
Well, for that to happen by tomorrow it has to begin spinning quick. By the way when this fast moving feature enter western Puerto Rico around 3 am, we had 35 to 40 mph winds, felt like a TD at least...
Quoting 312. GeoffreyWPB:




:/
JeffMasters has created a new entry.