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Otto Expected to Strike Central America as a Hurricane

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 5:14 PM GMT on November 22, 2016

One of the strongest tropical cyclones on record so far south in the Caribbean, Tropical Storm Otto, was on the verge of becoming a hurricane Tuesday morning. In its 10 AM EST advisory, the National Hurricane Center pegged Otto’s top sustained winds at 70 mph, just short of the hurricane threshold. Otto was christened on November 21, an unusually late date for a Caribbean tropical storm; only eleven Caribbean storms since 1851 have had a later formation date.

Still holding stationary less than 100 miles north of the coast of Panama on Tuesday morning, Otto is expected to begin moving west on Wednesday. The storm will likely make landfall as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane on the coast of southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica on Thursday. A hurricane watch extends along the entire Caribbean coast of Costa Rica northward to south of Bluefields, Nicaragua. A tropical storm warning is in effect along the central coast of Panama from Nargana to Colon, with a tropical storm watch westward to the border of Costa Rica. These are startling locations for tropical cyclone advisories--understandably so. A storm of Otto’s expected strength has never made landfall so far south in the Caribbean, and there is no record of any hurricane striking Costa Rica.


Figure 1.Latest visible satellite image of Otto.


Figure 2. Enhanced infrared image of Otto as of 1545Z (10:45 AM EST) Tuesday, November 22, 2016. Image credit: NASA/MSFC Earth Science Office.

Over the past day or so, Otto has largely shaken off the elongating influence of the frontal zone on which it developed, which extends far to the northeast into the Atlantic. Showers and thunderstorms have become stronger and much more symmetric around Otto’s center since Monday night. The storm remains quite compact, with tropical storm force winds extending out to only 70 miles from the center. That small size is both good news and bad news, as it will allow Otto to either intensify or weaken more quickly than a larger storm would. Otto will be moving through a very concave section of the Central American coast, and the rugged topography may help impart some extra spin to Otto’s circulation as the storm gradually enlarges.

Intensity outlook for Otto
Otto is in a very favorable spot to intensify. Sea surface temperatures remain unusually warm for this time of year--around 29°C (84°F), or about 1°C above the seasonal average. The atmosphere will be moistening over time, with the 12Z Tuesday SHIPS model predicting that mid-level relative humidities around Otto will increase from about 60% to greater than 70%. The main negative factor for Otto is vertical wind shear of 15 - 20 knots resulting from upper-level southeasterly winds blowing over the storm as it sits and spins. However, that shear may abate slightly on Wednesday and Thursday, and it is not enough in itself to keep Otto from intensifying. Otto should reach Central America as at least a Category 1 hurricane, and Category 2 or even higher strength cannot be ruled out. The most reliable intensity model for existing tropical cyclones, the HWRF, has consistently projected that Otto will become a solid Category 2 storm. The SHIPS model gives Otto a 30% chance of reaching top sustained winds of 90 knots (105 mph) by Tuesday morning, and an 18% chance of reaching 115 knots (135 mph, minimal Category 4 strength) by Wednesday morning. The latest Category 3 storm ever observed in the Atlantic occurred at 00 UTC November 24, 1934, so Otto has a chance of beating the record for latest major hurricane ever observed in the Atlantic (thanks go to WU member Ryan1000 for this info.)


Figure 3. Track forecast for Otto as of 10 AM EST Tuesday, November 22, 2016.

Otto’s track: Central America, and perhaps the East Pacific
Stubbornly stationary Otto began to show signs at midday Tuesday of a long-awaited westward movement. Our most reliable track models--the European, GFS, and UKMET--are now consistent in bringing Otto onshore across southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica on Thursday. It should take about a day for Otto to cross southern Nicaragua, which is much less mountainous than other parts of Central America. In fact, much of Otto’s path could be over Lake Nicaragua, one of the top-ten biggest freshwater lakes in the Americas. With land influence at a relative minimum, Otto has a shot at retaining its identity as a tropical cyclone when it enters the Pacific on Friday. In this case, Otto would keep its name in the Pacific. Should Otto dissipate, but its remnants manage to redevelop in the Pacific, the new storm will take the name Virgil from the Eastern Pacific list.

More than a dozen “crossover” tropical cyclones have been recorded, most of them moving from Atlantic to Pacific rather than vice versa. The most recent was Hermine (2010), which formed as an East Pacific tropical depression before entering the western Gulf and striking the northeast coast of Mexico as a tropical storm. Otto would be the first crossover storm in modern records to keep its name in going from one basin to another, since NHC’s previous practice was to rename such systems. All of Otto’s predecessors in this realm--including Hurricane Cesar-Douglas (1996)--underwent a name change when moving from Atlantic to Pacific or vice versa.

Heavy rains a major threat from Otto
Otto is likely to bring torrential rains, landslides, and flooding to parts of Central America. The region’s complex topography may lead to several widely dispersed areas of extremely heavy rain. The most straightforward part of the outlook is for several inches of rain over nearly all of Nicaragua, with a core of 10” - 15” amounts very possible just north of Otto’s circulation as it makes landfall and moves inland. The broad circulation enveloping Otto has been impinging on parts of Costa Rica and Panama, a process leading to very heavy rain that could go well beyond 15” in some areas, especially western Panama. Another narrow zone of torrential rain (again, 15” or more possible) is projected by models to develop later this week as Otto’s outer circulation moves along the north coast of Honduras, perhaps extending into far southern Belize and extreme eastern Guatemala.


Figure 4. Total rainfall for the 150-hour period ending at 7:00 AM EST Sunday, November 27, 2016, projected by the 06Z Monday run of the GFS model. Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com.

Climatology of November and December Atlantic tropical cyclones
Since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995 (including 2016), 13 of the 21 years (62%) have seen one or more Atlantic named storms form after November 1, for a total of eighteen November/December storms:

2016: Tropical Storm Otto on November 21
2015: Hurricane Kate on November 8
2011: Tropical Storm Sean on November 8
2009: Hurricane Ida on November 4
2008: Hurricane Paloma on November 6
2007: Tropical Storm Olga on December 11
2005: the "Greek" storms Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta
2004: Tropical Storm Otto on November 29
2003: Odette and Peter in December
2001: Hurricane Noel on November 5 and Hurricane Olga on November 24
1999: Hurricane Lenny on November 14
1998: Hurricane Nicole on November 24
1996: Hurricane Marco on November 19

Only three of these storms caused loss of life: Hurricane Ida of 2009, which killed one boater on the Mississippi River; Tropical Storm Odette of 2003, whose floods killed eight people in the Dominican Republic; and Hurricane Lenny of 1999, which killed fifteen people in the Lesser Antilles. "Wrong-way Lenny" was the second deadliest and the second strongest November hurricane on record (Category 4, 155 mph winds).

There have been only seven major Category 3 or stronger hurricanes in the Atlantic after November 1. Part of the reason for the relatively low loss of life for November storms is that they tend to form from extratropical low pressure systems that get cut off from the jet stream and linger over the warm waters of the subtropical Atlantic. These type of systems typically get their start in the middle Atlantic, far from land, and end up recurving northeastwards out to sea. Tropical Storm Sean of 2011 was an example of this type of storm. However, as noted in the wake of Hurricane Tomas of November 2010 in our blog post, Deadly late-season Atlantic hurricanes growing more frequent, "It used to be that late-season hurricanes were a relative rarity--in the 140-year period from 1851 - 1990, only 30 hurricanes existed in the Atlantic on or after November 1, an average of one late-season hurricane every five years. Only four major Category 3 or stronger late-season hurricanes occurred in those 140 years, and only three Caribbean hurricanes. But in the past twenty years, late-season hurricanes have become 3.5 times more frequent--there have been fifteen late-season hurricanes, and five of those occurred in the Caribbean. Three of these were major hurricanes, and were the three strongest late-season hurricanes on record". Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is an "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming sea surface temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". The recent increase in powerful and deadly November hurricanes would seem to support this conclusion.

We’ll be back with an update on Wednesday and will be tracking Otto throughout the Thanksgiving holiday period.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters
 

Figure 5. The second strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic in November, Hurricane Lenny, takes aim at the Lesser Antilles on November 17, 1999. Image credit: NOAA. (Thanks go to WU member elioe for pointing out that the November 1932 Cuba hurricane, which peaked at 170 mph winds, was the strongest and deadliest hurricane to occur in November.)

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Miraflores Locks 2 (Panama Canal) Camera

Then this storm already is no longer innocent of being a 'political' thing.
(follow-up on my remark couple of days ago).
Thanks for the update. Floodlist.com, Nov 18 (4 days ago) :

UK Survey Reveals Dangers of Floods Still Underestimated by Drivers
(...) John Curtin, Executive Director of Flood and Coastal Risk Management at the Environment Agency, said:
"The sheer number of people of all ages who wouldn't think twice about a potentially fatal decision to drive through a flood is deeply worrying. Our message is simple: don't." (...)

A World Wide Problem
Driving in flood water is not just a problem in the UK. Many flood related fatalities occur in vehicles in areas where car use is relatively high. In recent years, FloodList has reported on vehicle flood fatalities in numerous different countries in Europe, the Middle East and North Africa, North America and Australia.
In Australia, a report by Queensland University of Technology (QUT) from 2010, said that 4 out of 10 deaths were associated with driving motor vehicles across flooded waterways or roadways, despite public warnings to avoid them. Another 8.8 per cent involved the collapse of a flooded roadway. (...)


Panama and Costa Rica - Floods Prompt Rescues and Evacuations
Click articles' title to read in full.
16L/H/O/C1
Stubbornly stationary Otto began to show signs at midday Wednesday


Wishful thinking, I wish it was already Wednesday!
Thank You for the Update Gentleman and for noting the concave coastline issue; much the same for the Bay of Campeche helping tighten up some circulations so this rare storm in a similar posture, and in this location on approach towards a coastline with mountains to the interior, will make a great case study on this issue.

I am really worried about the impact of this storm on Central America and particularly if it expands in size, and fills in on the Eastern Quad, resulting in a multi-day flooding and mudslide event on the way across CA.
Local news keeps showing 7ft snow drifts and cars skidding off the roads from Lake Effect snows. I'm surprised there was no mention of the Lake Effect Snow Machine in action.
And here is the only typo I can find in an otherwise outstanding analysis; I think you meant mid-day "Tuesday":

"Stubbornly stationary Otto began to show signs at midday Wednesday of a long-awaited westward movement."

Both of you have a wonderful Thanksgiving Holiday with your families.



I see Otto getting upgrade to a cat 1 next advisory
Quoting 7. Sfloridacat5:

Local news keeps showing 7ft snow drifts and cars skidding off the roads from Lake Effect snows. I'm surprised there was no mention of the Lake Effect Snow Machine in action.
it was isolated to area's down wind from the convective streams so localize not wide spread some got it most did not
I know some areas eastern end of lake Ontario were getting 2 inch per hr snows but again just isolated in that or those areas
Quoting 9. Weatherfan1013:

I see Otto getting upgrade to a cat 1 next advisory
likely it was very near at 10am
Good update, thanks!
Pardon me if I am in error, but above we read:

"Otto’s track: Central America, and perhaps the East Pacific
Stubbornly stationary Otto began to show signs at midday Wednesday of a long-awaited westward movement. "

Did we mean Tuesday? In any case, go ahead and delete this post please.
Thanks, gentlemen! But:

Unlike the 2010 post about Tomas says, currently HURDAT shows that the November 1932 Cuba hurricane peaked at 150 kt, and retains its status as the strongest hurricane to occur in November. Perhaps a reanalysis has occurred since 2010? And so, also Figure 5 text and Late Season Major Hurricanes page contain errors.

Edit: also:
" "Wrong-way Lenny" was both the deadliest and the strongest November hurricane on record (Category 4, 155 mph winds). "

is erroneous. 1932 Cuba hurricane was not only, stronger, but also deadlier.
I have never seen snow (have always lived in Florida and flown or gone out of state or abroad in the summer) but flying to DC on the 22nd of December for some business then renting a car driving to Western Mass to spend Christmas with my oldest Daughter on the 24th. Other than "drive slow" any other tips for a driving in snow newbie?..............I don't want to end up sliding off the interstate at some point in this adventure like all the stuff I saw on TWC last night.....
Quoting 7. Sfloridacat5:

Local news keeps showing 7ft snow drifts and cars skidding off the roads from Lake Effect snows. I'm surprised there was no mention of the Lake Effect Snow Machine in action.


I've looked at the lake effect page for NWS Buffalo and four foot lake effect events happen downwind of Lake Ontario happen at least twice a winter, every single year. It got no mention, because it would be similar to the temp hitting 100 degrees in the deserts of New Mexico, in July. It's normal.
Quoting 14. MontanaZephyr:

Pardon me if I am in error, but above we read:

"Otto’s track: Central America, and perhaps the East Pacific
Stubbornly stationary Otto began to show signs at midday Wednesday of a long-awaited westward movement. "

Did we mean Tuesday? In any case, go ahead and delete this post please.


We did mean Tuesday! Fixed--thanks for the catch.
Quoting 16. weathermanwannabe:

I have never seen snow (have always lived in Florida and flown or gone out of state or abroad in the summer) but flying to DC on the 22nd of December for some business then renting a car driving to Western Mass to spend Christmas with my oldest Daughter on the 24th. Other than "drive slow" any other tips for a driving in snow newbie?..............I don't want to end up sliding off the interstate at some point in this adventure like all the stuff I saw on TWC last night.....
don't accelerate if in a slid turn wheels opposite of the slid reduce max sped limit by 20 if roads are snow covered more if you feel it necessary give at least 2 to 3 car lengths for cars in front of you unless its bumper to bumper traffic
000
WTNT31 KNHC 221744
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OTTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016
100 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2016

...OTTO EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.4N 79.4W
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM ESE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM E OF LIMON COSTA RICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Costa Rica/Panama border to south of Bluefields

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nargana to Colon

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* San Andres
* West of Colon to the Costa Rica/Panama border
Quoting 19. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

don't accelerate if in a slid turn wheels opposite of the slid reduce max sped limit by 20 if roads are snow covered more if you feel it necessary give at least 2 to 3 car lengths for cars in front of you unless its bumper to bumper traffic


Thanks; gonna just listen to the GPS lady give me the directions and I am going to drive like an old lady through it....
Quoting 21. weathermanwannabe:



Thanks; gonna just listen to the GPS lady give me the directions and I am going to drive like an old lady through it....
I don't like those gps thingys always say turn left here and ya end up in a ditch then yer like but the gps said turn left here what the hell if you do follow it make sure there is something too turn left onto like a road
The current center fix is right at the current ball of intense convection and the Eastern Quad is starting to fill in at the core region:




weathermanwannabe:

make sure the car you are renting has snow tires not all seasonal those are garbage in the snow
25. k3v
Quoting 19. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

don't accelerate if in a slid turn wheels opposite of the slid

This is the opposite of what you are supposed to do. Scary to read this. You need to point your front wheels into the slide, so that way they have a chance of grabbing the road again. The tires will not grip again if they are not in the direction of motion. Honestly for winter driving tips you might want to look at for something more official than a comment section. Here: http://exchange.aaa.com/safety/roadway-safety/wint er-driving-tips/
http://www.cartalk.com/content/winter-driving-tip s-7
http://www.massdot.state.ma.us/highway/department s/snowice/safewinterdrivingtips.aspx
Quoting 16. weathermanwannabe:

I have never seen snow (have always lived in Florida and flown or gone out of state or abroad in the summer) but flying to DC on the 22nd of December for some business then renting a car driving to Western Mass to spend Christmas with my oldest Daughter on the 24th. Other than "drive slow" any other tips for a driving in snow newbie?..............I don't want to end up sliding off the interstate at some point in this adventure like all the stuff I saw on TWC last night.....


Sure, it's easier than you might think.

Once you get a little snow on the pavement, go to a large parking lot, like at Walmart or Kmart. Go to an area where there are no other vehicles, and then 'play around' a little. Accelerate to 10MPH, then slam on the brakes, and see what you get. Try this at the same time you are turning your steering wheels. See what accelerating on the slick spots feels like, and how much pedal you need to use to do this most effectively.

After even a half hour of experimentation, you shall have developed a fairly visceral and practical sense of how your vehicle will perform under those conditions.

With a few exceptions, roads are slickest when the pavement temperature is up close to near freezing. The reason for this is that when the vehicle passes over ice or frozen water and the temp is close to freezing, the pressure of the weight actually creates a thin film of water, which atop the ice is very very slick. Generally, when the temps are under 20 degrees F, the road tightens up nicely and you can drive with much better traction and confidence.

One exception to this is the case of 'black ice'. Black ice is invisible to the driver's eye. It looks like the pavement is clean and dry. But what can happen, when conditions are quite cold (I'm hip-shooting here and will say below 20 degrees), and when the relative humidity is high, what can happen is that this mix of grease from auto-exhaust and the moisture together and form a thin coat on the pavement which makes it mighty close to friction-free. So watch for that set of conditions setting up, but typically before you come upon them others already have and you will see a law enforcement vehicle at the side of the road with the emergency lights spinning but no one else around. Once I saw a driver blow right past one of these at full speed, not comprehending what the danger was, and perhaps a half mile up the road her car just started rotating, while keeping its momentum right down the center of the (happily almost empty, I was the only one behind her and going might slow). Her car went through 3.5 full rotations before she came to stop, directly facing me (as I was oncoming). She was a bit in shock I think, because she just sat there for a bit till I signaled her with my lights.

The other thing you have to watch for is that overpasses freeze much more quickly than the roadways; so you may be zooming along and everything's fine and then hit an overpass and suddenly come upon slick conditions. There are usually signs that warn of this.

Happy travels~
Thanks for all of the tips and I will read up on all this stuff before the actual drive and check on the issue of snow tires for any rental vehicles...........One of my co-workers from Mass said the same thing as to black ice as the biggest potential threat.
Quoting 24. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

weathermanwannabe:

make sure the car you are renting has snow tires not all seasonal those are garbage in the snow



And you want front wheel drive. Four wheel drive is okay, but people get over-confident with it; in fact, you can stop no better with four-wheel drive than in any other rig.

Oh one more tip! If conditions are particularly hairy, generally you can situate yourself 100 yards or so behind an 18-wheeler. (These are generally professional drivers, with extra training, and they keep up with what is going on in real time). One time after two days of exhausting crisis-level activity I had to drive all night to Seattle through an unusually nasty rain/wind storm that lasted all the way from Missoula to the coast, AND I didn't have my prescription glasses with me. I went the whole way behind 18 wheelers. They saw where the road was for me, paced according to conditions, knocked the deer out of the way.... in short they did the lions share of my 'driver's thinking' for me the whole way.
29. MontanaZephyr
1:26 PM EST on November 22, 2016

Thank you so much; I recently got my first front wheel drive car and I really like how much quicker the car decelerates when you lay off the gas pedal than with rear wheel drives...............It has saved me a lot of break wear going into turns or existing the freeway...............I will make sure I also ask for a front-wheel drive rental. And I have done the same thing behind truck rigs when driving through blinding rain spots on the freeways over the years.
New York Times:

"Exxon Mobil Accuses the Rockefellers of a Climate Conspiracy"

Link
Quoting 14. MontanaZephyr:

Pardon me if I am in error, but above we read:

"Otto’s track: Central America, and perhaps the East Pacific

as the blog stated "In fact, much of Otto’s path could be over Lake Nicaragua, one of the top-ten biggest freshwater lakes in the Americas", I have always been curious about how a tropical system could be influenced if its path be over the lake
Quoting 15. elioe:

Thanks, gentlemen! But:

Unlike the 2010 post about Tomas says, currently HURDAT shows that the November 1932 Cuba hurricane peaked at 150 kt, and retains its status as the strongest hurricane to occur in November. Perhaps a reanalysis has occurred since 2010? And so, also Figure 5 text and Late Season Major Hurricanes page contain errors.

Edit: also:
" "Wrong-way Lenny" was both the deadliest and the strongest November hurricane on record (Category 4, 155 mph winds). "

is erroneous. 1932 Cuba hurricane was not only, stronger, but also deadlier.


Thanks! I made the corrections to the post, and added this:

Thanks go to WU member elioe for pointing out that the November 1932 Cuba hurricane, which peaked at 170 mph winds, was the strongest and deadliest hurricane to occur in November.

Jeff Masters
Look at how much the symmetry of Otto has improved in 24 hours.............I hope that he does not make a run at at a borderline Cat 3............................

This Afternoon:


This Time Yesterday:


Very concerned for a "Significant Severe Weather Outbreak" early next week for the TN Valley and SE US. We could see Tor-Con values over 8 in these areas. Folks take heed very dangerous situation being advertised on these model runs of late. Large and violent tornadoes are increasing each and everyday as we get closer in time.
This late November Outbreak coming could rival that of 1992, 2002, and 2011. Folks better stay turned as you heard it here first guys very serous situation by the looks of these 12Z models for early to mid next week. Should be one round Monday across the TN Valley then Tuesday/Wednesday across the Deep South.
18z models ran on Hurricane Otto with an initial intensity of 65 knots.

15-7-3.
great/blog...thanks
Quoting 28. weathermanwannabe:

Thanks for all of the tips and I will read up on all this stuff before the actual drive and check on the issue of snow tires for any rental vehicles...........One of my co-workers from Mass said the same thing as to black ice as the biggest potential threat.


As I've often said, tire chains provide absolute safety. Wrap one end around the left handle of the garage door and the other end on the right, secure a padlock and lock the car in the garage. No winter driving problems.

Chains actually, where legal, do provide better ice traction than anything else you can put on your wheels.

Seems to me it's built up its eyewall rather quickly. Source : Link
Quoting 16. weathermanwannabe:

I have never seen snow (have always lived in Florida and flown or gone out of state or abroad in the summer) but flying to DC on the 22nd of December for some business then renting a car driving to Western Mass to spend Christmas with my oldest Daughter on the 24th. Other than "drive slow" any other tips for a driving in snow newbie?..............I don't want to end up sliding off the interstate at some point in this adventure like all the stuff I saw on TWC last night.....


Avoid situations where you need to accelerate or brake quickly, reduce speed and increase following distance (a lot). Anticipate that you will have little traction and assume you will need a long long distance to stop and will have to take turns slowly. Get a rental car with snow tires.


The most dangerous situation is where roads are MOSTLY clear and there are some spots of ice because you think you are okay and drive normally until you hit one. If it's snowing hard or icy, everyone around you will be driving slowly and you'll be more alert. Also watch out for when it starts to snow or rain (with icing). THe first ten minute is often when everybody spins out or skids into accidents.

THe most likely condition you'll encounter is a clear road but the next most likely condition is a MOSTLY clear road with icy spots and that's very dangerous. Be alert. The least likely condition is a generally ice and snow covered road with lousy traveling conditions but as I said before it's the middle condition, MOSTLY clear that's the most dangerous.

If it's raining or snowing, the defroster in a modern car activates the AC compressor and has a powerful dehumidifying effect. Once the engine is warmed up use it, it will defrost ALL of the windows, not just the front one. For the first few minutes until the engine warms up it defrosts less and cools which is not good.


Quoting 29. MontanaZephyr:




And you want front wheel drive. Four wheel drive is okay, but people get over-confident with it; in fact, you can stop no better with four-wheel drive than in any other rig.

Oh one more tip! If conditions are particularly hairy, generally you can situate yourself 100 yards or so behind an 18-wheeler. (These are generally professional drivers, with extra training, and they keep up with what is going on in real time). One time after two days of exhausting crisis-level activity I had to drive all night to Seattle through an unusually nasty rain/wind storm that lasted all the way from Missoula to the coast, AND I didn't have my prescription glasses with me. I went the whole way behind 18 wheelers. They saw where the road was for me, paced according to conditions, knocked the deer out of the way.... in short they did the lions share of my 'driver's thinking' for me the whole way.


From a cynical friend in the VA mountains

"The purpose of Four Wheel Drive is to get you hung up in a worse spot"

Quoting 37. CybrTeddy:

18z models ran on Hurricane Otto with an initial intensity of 65 knots.

15-7-3.


I think that's right on my preseason numbers or close to it. I think I went 15 8 3.
I
Quoting 16. weathermanwannabe:

I have never seen snow (have always lived in Florida and flown or gone out of state or abroad in the summer) but flying to DC on the 22nd of December for some business then renting a car driving to Western Mass to spend Christmas with my oldest Daughter on the 24th. Other than "drive slow" any other tips for a driving in snow newbie?..............I don't want to end up sliding off the interstate at some point in this adventure like all the stuff I saw on TWC last night.....
My husband and I drove from D.C to Massachusetts this past June and it is some rough driving even without bad weather.We especially hated the roads in Connecticut.Hopefully you get good weather on the way up there .
Thanks for the updates Gentlemen....
Quoting 35. StormTrackerScott:

Very concerned for a "Significant Severe Weather Outbreak" early next week for the TN Valley and SE US. We could see Tor-Con values over 8 in these areas. Folks take heed very dangerous situation being advertised on these model runs of late. Large and violent tornadoes are increasing each and everyday as we get closer in time.


How can you be so sure this far in advance?
Today, I noticed about 14 major ships waiting off the Caribbean coast for entry into the Panama Canal. The storm is approaching the area across the mouth of canal on the Colon side. I'm curious as to how large super container ships react to a strong tropical storm spinning up to hurricane strength.
This link shows that there are about 500 vessels currently in the Panama Canal area. That's a lot of merchant marines and shipped property at risk.
(Sorry, I'm not skilled at posting an active link like the map below)

http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx: -79/centery:9/zoom:8
Welcome to the new WU blog "Category Road":
WxWannabe Expected to Strike Massachusetts as a Roadslider
Quoting 47. MAstu:



How can you be so sure this far in advance?


Jet dynamics, wind profiles, and a strong surge of moisture (dewpoints 65 to 70) coming all the way to western TN Monday. Once this moisture surge interacts with all these jet dynamics moving east from the SW US then watch out as storms will break out very fast and could start rotating right away.
New microwave pass:



According to best track Otto is already a hurricane...
Quoting 44. washingtonian115:

I My husband and I drove from D.C to Massachusetts this past June and it is some rough driving even without bad weather.We especially hated the roads in Connecticut.Hopefully you get good weather on the way up there .


Thanks; when my kid was at Yale and we stopped in DC before heading to Conn on about 10 occasions over those four years (and to avoid I-95), we would head up I-85 to Penn, shoot over the Tappan Zee bridge in Jersey, then break off to the Mass Pike; this time we will break off to the Mass Parkway and head in towards Chicopee.
Quoting 51. Carnivorous:

New microwave pass:



According to best track Otto is already a hurricane...

wow
Link

Panama shipping map


So according to the cone NHC is expecting Otto to survive central America in which it would become Pacific Basin's Tropical Cyclone Otto
Quoting 54. Buddynoel:

Link

Panama shipping map




What a nightmare, I'm willing to bet just the cost from shipping delays will be 100,000$
Quoting 47. MAstu:



How can you be so sure this far in advance?


Things can change but the models are showing a pretty strong squall line setting up.
But the air temperatures out a head of the front might be borderline for significant severe weather. That's something to watch for.
Definitely a nice line of storms should setup if the models hold.
Otto is on his way to major hurricane status.The earlier runs of the GFS and Euro showed a major hurricane in the caribbean and because of his small size and conditions becoming even more favorable he could undergo rapid intensification later tonight into tomorrow.He seems to have built up his core and now I just hope the people in the regions that will be under fire are getting prepared.
16L/H/O/C1
Quoting 49. EmsiNasklug:

Welcome to the new WU blog "Category Road":
WxWannabe Expected to Strike Massachusetts as a Roadslider



I already experienced the potential nightmare there in August when I drove the rented moving Van from Atlanta to Chicopee to move my daughter in. Long story short but I pulled onto the Mass Parkway and kept noticing that I was the only "truck" on the 2-lane road and the pretty stone bridges over the road kept getting "lower". Finally figured out that my truck clearance was 12 feet and I started to notice the bridge clearance signs dropping down to 11-9; slowly drove under that first one, in the middle taking up both lanes, with people honking their horns behind me and got off on the next exit..............Then noticed the sign on the on-ramp with the no-trucks sign.......................Almost had a Chevy Chase Vacation moment if I had kept on going and hit a bridge............................Lol.
This could be very interesting for Costa Rica and how it handles this storm. Their First ever hurricane on record to make landfall there very well could be a major hurricane. I pray they have the infustructure to handle and recover from what could easily be a catastrophic storm.
Quoting 61. weathermanwannabe:






Here is the updated 2:00 pm shear chart; no anticyclone yet over the core (thankfully) but smooth sailing all the way to the CA coast and the dropping shear tendancy for the past 24 hours out ahead of the storm; a little scary to see what Otto might look like tomorrow morning after another round of d-max.







Imagine that: entering Pacific as an hurricane, intensifying and/or going all the way to Asia, Africa, or (almost impossible) coming back to Americas.
Could someone explain to me why is Otto stationary? and how certain is the projected path?



me during recon missions

Quoting 63. masiello3:

This could be very interesting for Costa Rica and how it handles this storm. Their First ever hurricane on record to make landfall there very well could be a major hurricane. I pray they have the infustructure to handle and recover from what could easily be a catastrophic storm.
Interesting how the storm stays barely ashore and doesn't interact with Costa Rica and Panama's highlands, what could lead it to an inmediate weakening
Quoting 66. Uragani:

Imagine that: entering Pacific as an hurricane, intensifying and/or going all the way to Asia, Africa, or (almost impossible) coming back to Americas.

If it wants it could go to the southeast atlantic if it moves south, since the ITCZ is too lazy at Panama and doesn't exist there.
At 1800 UTC, 22 November 2016, HURRICANE OTTO (AL16) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 10.4°N and 79.4°W. The current intensity was 65 kt and the center was moving at 2 kt at a bearing of 270 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb.
hurricane Otto its official.
meanwhile
"OTTO BECOMES THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE 2016 SEASON"
Not surprising given the current satt presentation;


Quoting 77. Gearsts:



Perfect for severe storms?
Quoting 66. Uragani:

Imagine that: entering Pacific as an hurricane, intensifying and/or going all the way to Asia, Africa, or (almost impossible) coming back to Americas.


There seems to be a very small possibility, that Otto, as a Pacific tropical cyclone, recurves to the coast of Gulf of Tehuantepec. Even smaller possibility, that it would also survive the trek across the isthmus and enter Gulf of Mexico, lol.
You could walk your dog along with the core (or in the eye if there is one yet) at the present speed:

At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Otto was located
near latitude 10.5 North, longitude 79.6 West. Otto is moving toward
the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). Otto should move a little faster
toward the west or west-northwest for the next couple of days. On
the forecast track, Otto is expected to approach the coasts of Costa
Rica and Nicaragua on Thursday.


HURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016
400 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2016

Satellite images indicate that Otto is continuing to strengthen.
The overall satellite pattern has become more symmetric, with a
large mass of intense convection near the center. Dvorak intensity
estimates range from 65 to 77 kt, and the wind speed is set to 65
kt, which makes Otto the seventh hurricane of the season. Otto
is the latest hurricane formation on record in the Caribbean Sea,
eclipsing the mark of Martha (1969) by about a day.


Environmental conditions appear favorable for continued
strengthening, with warm water and weak-to-moderate southeasterly
shear during the next couple of days. Most of the guidance models
show Otto making landfall as a category 1 hurricane on Thursday and
so does the official forecast. Stronger shear, as well as land
interaction over central America, will probably prevent Otto from
restrengthening over the eastern Pacific.


Satellite fixes suggest that Otto has been drifting westward during
the day. A mid-level ridge is still forecast to build over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea by tomorrow, which should cause Otto to
move slowly to the west or west-northwest. As the ridge builds, the
forward speed should increase, especially as the cyclone moves
across the eastern Pacific and gradually loses latitude in that
basin. The most notable change is that the guidance has come into
better agreement on the track, although there are still some
significant speed differences. Overall, the guidance envelope has
shifted a bit to the north and is faster, and the official forecast
follows that trend.

A hurricane warning will likely be required tonight or early
tomorrow for portions of Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 10.5N 79.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 10.6N 80.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 10.9N 81.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 11.0N 82.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 11.0N 83.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
72H 25/1800Z 10.4N 88.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 26/1800Z 9.8N 91.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 9.5N 96.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake/Pasch
It just keeps rolling into Panama.
http://www.pancanal.com/eng/radar/main.html
THIS WAS PREVIOUS ENSEMBLE TRACK AT 12Z

Otto the last hurrah for the 2016 season in the atlantic
just think may be 6 months or longer before we track again
been an interesting season that exceeded a lot of expectations
8 days remain
The NHC forecast peaks Otto at 90 mph and they have to go with the model consensus; still wondering if the models will edge a little higher tomorrow in the afternoon depending on how low the pressures get and a better read on the core from actual recon.............Time will tell but we all really hope that the CA authorities get the word out to the people living on the coast and then inland on the mountain-sides and valleys and river bed regions. The greatest impact from this hurricane is not going to be from excessive wind speeds but from a massive rain and flooding event.

Quoting 79. elioe:



There seems to be a very small possibility, that Otto, as a Pacific tropical cyclone, recurves to the coast of Gulf of Tehuantepec. Even smaller possibility, that it would also survive the trek across the isthmus and enter Gulf of Mexico, lol.

Yours seems more probable.
How about this: Otto create a fractal-like TS system. (Multiple storms trailing on its left)
What about Mitch back in 1998?. The final count of deads was around 30000 ..... and last around a month (Oct 10th (close to Africa) to Nov 9th (close to England))
Last week I wasn't that impressed with 90L but it has a tight look as a hurricane now. I expect Otto will reach Cat 2, and would not be surprised to see it reach Cat 3.
Here are the Central American mountain areas again and the major rivers as well:

Image result for central american mountain ranges

Image result for central american rivers
Here is a sample of some of the shanty-towns on the hill sides: pretty much the same mo across the board in terms of sub-standard-shoddy housing prone to high winds and flooding/mudslide issues.


Nicaragua:
Image result for nicaragua shanty town

Panama:
Image result for panama shanty town
Costa Rica:
Image result for costa rica shanty town
Quoting 67. mzavalak:

Could someone explain to me why is Otto stationary? and how certain is the projected path?




It's simple, Otto isn't moving because there isn't a steering flow to move him. That is expected to change as the high to the north strengthens and that will force Otto off in a general westward direction.
And the big picture, even though a compact storm, as to the river of moisture headed towards CA along with Otto; also really hoping that the large area of moisture over South America headed in Otto's direction is not responding to the lower pressure because that would certainly increase the rain potential by several inches if some of that area entrains into the circulation:




Quoting:

31. MontanaZephyr
6:34 PM GMT on November 22, 2016
3 +
New York Times:

"Exxon Mobil Accuses the Rockefellers of a Climate Conspiracy"

Link

Exxon Mobile provided the energy required to give our civilization efficient, comfortable, long range mobility for almost a century...I think most who used this benefit, were complicit in the implementation of the process...Were any forced to take advantage of the transport system?...

Now there are issues with systems on earth concerning unbalanced stasis resulting from use of this process and others. It is time for another change...We now need the zero point technology created in covert, highly secret areas like A-51, Dugway Proving Ground and others...

The survival of the greater civilization is threatened...Those who control this technology must be “nicely” assisted to bring development in a safe prophylactic manner... The die is cast...
"No storm ever observed in the Atlantic, including the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, is known to have attained a strength of Category 2 or higher after November 20. See below for more details on late-season Atlantic climatology. "

Dr. Masters, there was one hurricane in 1934 that attained major hurricane status late on November 23:

So it (Otto) wouldn't be the only one if it becomes one. There's an error in the WUnderground track on this storm though, it says here that it's only 85 mph.
Quoting 89. weathermanwannabe:

Here are the Central American mountain areas again and the major rivers as well:

Image result for central american mountain ranges




no really high mountains on Otto's way

Quoting 90. weathermanwannabe:

Here is a sample of some of the shanty-towns on the hill sides: pretty much the same mo across the board in terms of sub-standard-shoddy housing prone to high winds and flooding/mudslide issues.


Nicaragua:
Image result for nicaragua shanty town

Panama:
Image result for panama shanty town
Costa Rica:
Image result for costa rica shanty town


Could you verify where exactly in costa rica this picture was taken? It does not seem to be in the northern region.
Quoting 95. mavilesilva:


kind of Otto's path... not really high mountains in the way




Yup in terms of the circulation staying together if the core does indeed pass across the border region towards the Lake in Nicaragua between the maintain ranges. The question that I am concerned about is how many people live in small towns on the hill-sides or valleys on the Atlantic side of the mountain range in Costa Rica and on the S-SW side of that smaller range North of the Lake in Nicaragua and maybe even into parts of Honduras to the South of Tegucigalpa ; those folks will probably be in the wetter Northern Quad of the storm as it comes across.
Quoting 96. hurricaneeye:



Could you verify where exactly in costa rica this picture was taken? It does not seem to be in the northern region.




BE CAREFUL with what youdo post. That is nota costa rica. It is lima, peru.
Hurricane hunters descending now
Quoting 98. hurricaneeye:





BE CAREFUL with what youdo post. That is nota costa rica. It is lima, peru.


I appreciate your comment and was replying a minute ago when the Blog ate my post; was noting that even though I pulled this pic from site stating Costa Rica, that I noticed the CBS block walls in this pic as opposed to the other two which did look a little out of place with the rest.
Quoting 66. Uragani:

Imagine that: entering Pacific as an hurricane, intensifying and/or going all the way to Asia, Africa, or (almost impossible) coming back to Americas.


Funny. Occasionally I speculate on the series of consequences of ACC, as they may unfold across time. And just in the last day or so, it occurred to me that couple of years after the 'blue water event' goes permanent (which itself may be closer in time than any of us might guess), a healthy hurricane off the east coast could sail right on up past Iceland and not lose steam, cross Scandanavia and klonk smack into the North coast of Russia as a full fledged hurricane even still.

Maybe too much Calvin & Hobbes in younger days~
before otto kicks into overdrive, heres some great shots from the iss over papua new guinea with convection all over the place. taken TOMORROW MORNING as the sun rises on Wednesday :p





Quoting 94. Ryan1000:

"No storm ever observed in the Atlantic, including the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, is known to have attained a strength of Category 2 or higher after November 20. See below for more details on late-season Atlantic climatology. "

Dr. Masters, there was one hurricane in 1934 that attained major hurricane status late on November 23:

So it (Otto) wouldn't be the only one if it becomes one. There's an error in the WUnderground track on this storm though, it says here that it's only 85 mph.

Thats one weird track
See everyone tomorrow and hoping for the best for Central America; Otto is looking better and better in these last daylight shots and hoping that it will not intensify beyond the current NHC forecast:






yikes Otto
'pollution front' moving south over the bay of bengal from mainland india. atmospheric warming aside, here's concrete evidence of pollution (man made) affecting weather.

Costa Rica is beautiful place like all places it has its issues but its a beautiful country I have a friend who lives up here from there and he goes back every few months working on some land down those parts for a retirement thing has even invited me along anytime I want


Quoting 97. weathermanwannabe:



Yup in terms of the circulation staying together if the core does indeed pass across the border region towards the Lake in Nicaragua between the maintain ranges. The question that I am concerned about is how many people live in small towns on the hill-sides or valleys on the Atlantic side of the mountain range in Costa Rica and on the S-SW side of that smaller range North of the Lake in Nicaragua and maybe even into parts of Honduras to the South of Tegucigalpa ; those folks will probably be in the wetter Northern Quad of the storm as it comes across.
the mayor concern will be the rescue of the people isolated by the floods; the area is really remote and flat, actually... another ulterior concern could be the canopy damage caused by the winds... the landfall zone contains around 40% of Nicaragua's forest cover
Quoting 94. Ryan1000:

"No storm ever observed in the Atlantic, including the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, is known to have attained a strength of Category 2 or higher after November 20. See below for more details on late-season Atlantic climatology. "

Dr. Masters, there was one hurricane in 1934 that attained major hurricane status late on November 23:

So it (Otto) wouldn't be the only one if it becomes one. There's an error in the WUnderground track on this storm though, it says here that it's only 85 mph.


Thanks, I updated the blog thusly:

The latest Category 3 storm ever observed in the Atlantic occurred at 00 UTC November 24, 1934, so Otto has a chance of beating the record for latest major hurricane ever observed in the Atlantic (thanks go to WU member Ryan1000 for this info.)


I've gotta convince our programmers to get all the HURDAT updates to the hurricane database up on the site!

Dr. M.
TINDER TO BURN



102 million dead trees in California since 2010 will make for one helluva wildfire season. Sixty-two million trees perished in the state in the last year alone, mostly in the Sierra Nevada, according to the U.S. Forest Service. That’s a lot of kindling.

More >>

So hard to believe it's been 54 years.

114. Ed22
Quoting 104. weathermanwannabe:

See everyone tomorrow and hoping for the best for Central America; Otto is looking better and better in these last daylight shots and hoping that it will not intensify beyond the current NHC forecast:







its a possibility by this time tomorrow it could be a strong Category 2 Hurricane with winds around 110 mph.
Why the Global Coral Bleaching Event That Began in 2014 May Just Keep Going and Going

From October of 2014 through June of 2016, the world was in the grips of a powerful El Nino. And throughout this event, the oceans spewed back some of the massive volume of heat they’ve been accumulating in their depths due to global warming. As a result, atmospheric and ocean surface temperatures hit new record highs. And during 2016, global surface temperatures will likely average 1.2 C hotter than 1880s levels. This amount of warming is as considerable as it is harmful.

Link
Quoting 42. georgevandenberghe:



From a cynical friend in the VA mountains

"The purpose of Four Wheel Drive is to get you hung up in a worse spot"




From an Alaskan friend

"Four times zero is zero!"
Quoting 95. mavilesilva:

Quoting 89. weathermanwannabe:

no really high mountains on Otto's way




Rincon de la Vieja Volcano east of Liberia, the major elevation in that area. Risk of mudslides in some small villages like La Fortuna de Bagaces, Hojancha, Tilaran , Nuevo Arenal and overflow of rivers in the lowlands of Guanacaste, near Upala and Sarapiqui river.
Australia, BOM. ENSO wrap-up, Current state of the Pacific and Indian oceans (link), issued 22 November 2016 :
Negative Indian Ocean Dipole ends, while central tropical Pacific Ocean warms.
(...) In the tropical Pacific, most indicators of ENSO are well within neutral bounds. In the past fortnight, sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific Ocean have warmed once again, further dampening chances of La Nina. (...)
Climate models predict the tropical Pacific Ocean will remain cooler than average, but in the ENSO-neutral range, through until the end of the 2016-17 summer. Only one of the eight models surveyed indicates La Nina for the summer months. A La Nina developing this late in the calendar year has only occurred once since 1980. (...)

112. Xandra
10:50 PM GMT on November 22, 2016

TINDER TO BURN


Most of this die off is begins just South of Lake Tahoe. On both sides of the mountains. Scribbler said the other day he's working on another drought update .............

Meanwhile :
Is The World Running Out Of Water? Bolivia Declares National Emergency Amid Drought

In the latest sign of the devastating impact of global warming, Bolivia’s government has declared a state of emergency in the wake of the country’s worst drought in 25 years. President Evo Morales made the announcement Monday, authorizing national and local governments to use state funds to attempt to control a crisis that has led to severe water rationing and protests in the South American nation.

Morales said during a press conference Bolivians “have to be prepared for the worst.” Earlier this month, neighborhoods in and around the capital of La Paz had a rationing plan imposed, forcing residents to go without water for 60 hours at a time before getting 12 hours of access. On Monday, that was extended to periods of three days without water and just three hours to replenish their supply.


Link
Quoting 116. kabloie:



From an Alaskan friend

"Four times zero is zero!"


From a Danish chess grand master, when asked what he would take to a match with a computer :

" A hammer. "
Hello. First time post. I live in Costa Rica. Last Wednesday I was in Osa Penninsula in a town up in the hills called Rancho Quemado. It rained all day, and all night from TS Otto, and washed out the rivers on both sides of town. You could cross these rivers, and now they are impassable. I hiked out 16 km through several landslides, downed power lines, swollen rivers, and pasture to get to where the road was passable. Most people stayed on the hill thinking they would be able to leave soon. No electric, cell service, i-net, or cold beer since last Thursday… Helicopters evacuated a few tourists today. It was not really known and tried to report it, but without paying, I couldn't report.

We here on the Pacific coast are ok now. It is just raining off and on. Captain Zero tells me that has been raining a lot over there in Pto. Viejo. Hope this stays small and doesn't intensify. tx terminated...
123. 882MB
Quoting 121. FreakinCostaRican:

Hello. First time post. I live in Costa Rica. Last Wednesday I was in Osa Penninsula in a town up in the hills called Rancho Quemado. It rained all day, and all night from TS Otto, and washed out the rivers on both sides of town. You could cross these rivers, and now they are impassable. I hiked out 16 km through several landslides, downed power lines, swollen rivers, and pasture to get to where the road was passable. Most people stayed on the hill thinking they would be able to leave soon. No electric, cell service, i-net, or cold beer since last Thursday… Helicopters evacuated a few tourists today. It was not really known and tried to report it, but without paying, I couldn't report.

We here on the Pacific coast are ok now. It is just raining off and on. Captain Zero tells me that has been raining a lot over there in Pto. Viejo. Hope this stays small and doesn't intensify. tx terminated...


Hello, and welcome to the blog. My Uncle, has visited all over Costa Rica, and its one of his favorite places to go, besides Panama. He was in Osa peninsula, and told me about how many beautiful beaches are over there, including his favorite, Playa Tambor, and Tamarindo, and many more. I hope Otto doesn't do that much more damage then what you have said. I'm planning to go next year, Si Dios permite. I hope everything goes well and you are prepared. Stay safe and God bless. :)
Quoting 122. ILwthrfan:

Hope
nature will show him
Quoting 108. earthisanocean:

'pollution front' moving south over the bay of bengal from mainland india. atmospheric warming aside, here's concrete evidence of pollution (man made) affecting weather.



wow
Quoting 92. weathermanwannabe:

And the big picture, even though a compact storm, as to the river of moisture headed towards CA along with Otto; also really hoping that the large area of moisture over South America headed in Otto's direction is not responding to the lower pressure because that would certainly increase the rain potential by several inches if some of that area entrains into the circulation:






Not likely that would pose too much of a problem since several spurs of the Andes stand in the way, although people on the upslope side of that moisture in Colombia might see some enhanced ppt.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
359 PM PST TUE NOV 22 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN EUREKA CALIFORNIA HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MENDOCINO TO PT. ARENA CA OUT 10 NM...
WATERS FROM CAPE MENDOCINO TO PT. ARENA CA FROM 10 TO 60 NM...

* UNTIL 500 PM PST

* AT 358 PM PST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WATERSPOUTS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 NM SOUTH OF
CAPE MENDOCINO TO 36 NM WEST OF FORT BRAGG...MOVING EAST AT 20
KNOTS.

Sharp cold front with some subtropical entrainment moving into the West Coast through tonight. Strong t-storms have been reported near the frontal boundary off the NW coast of California. Buoys still showing above normal SSTs, nearly 60 F offshore of the SF Bay Area.
16L/H/O/C1


000
WTNT31 KNHC 222346
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OTTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016
700 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2016

...OTTO DRIFTS WESTWARD AS A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 79.7W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM ESE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM E OF LIMON COSTA RICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Costa Rica/Panama border to south of Bluefields

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nargana to Colon
* San Andres

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Colon to the Costa Rica/Panama border
* Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi

At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Otto was located
near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 79.7 West. Otto is moving toward
the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). Otto should move a little faster
toward the west or west-northwest for the next couple of days. On
the forecast track, Otto is expected to approach the coasts of Costa
Rica and Nicaragua on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected for the next couple of days until
landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70
miles (110 km).

The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 987 mb (29.15 inches).

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Otto are expected to produce
rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over San Andres and
Providencia islands, and the higher terrain of central and western
Panama and southern Costa Rica through Wednesday. Total rainfall
of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts of 15 to 20 inches, can be
expected across northern Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua through
Thursday. These rains will likely result in life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in Panama tonight and are possible in the tropical storm watch
area in Panama on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in San Andres by late Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
in Nicaragua on Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Otto are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions over the next several days along
the coasts of Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Quoting 128. BayFog:


Sharp cold front with some subtropical entrainment moving into the West Coast through tonight. Strong t-storms have been reported near the frontal boundary off the NW coast of California. Buoys still showing above normal SSTs, nearly 60 F offshore of the SF Bay Area.
if we get hail the size of grapefruit its a sign
Quoting 84. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Otto the last hurrah for the 2016 season in the atlantic
just think may be 6 months or longer before we track again
been an interesting season that exceeded a lot of expectations
8 days remain

Based on history this has been an above average season exceeding both the named storm and hurricane averages, if Otto manages to make Cat 3 the we will have exceeded the major hurricane average as well
Eureka, CA (KBHX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)
Quoting 131. Icybubba:


Based on history this has been an above average season exceeding both the named storm and hurricane averages, if Otto manages to make Cat 3 the we will have exceeded the major hurricane average as well
I don't think it will go three maybe mid range 2 and that's pushing it
its forward speed is to pick up significantly over the next 24 hrs
after that its the crossing to epac side from then
Quoting 125. BayFog:


wow

No one is denying that pollution exists and is harmful but I see little reason to believe that it is causing the entire planet to warm, I know people in Australia who said it has not been a warm winter like we have been told, also remember when global warming was supposed to cause a decrease in snow? Well apparently we t is causing more now. But pollution does exist and causes smog and acid rain and hurts the environment

As you can see by the yellow pin on the above Google Earth snip, my house (Casa Colorado) in Western Panama is about half-way between the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean just east of the Costa Rica Border. I live at 3,700' elevation on the eastern slopes of 11,400' Volcan Baru, and just south of the 7-8,000' Talamanca Mountain Range, which is the continental divide in Western Panama, and across the border into Costa Rica.

I didn't - and don't - expect to be heavily impacted by Otto, although we might get more rain from the outer bands. While Otto was an invest, we got around 8 inches of rain over about a five-day period, with more and less at various locations in the region. However, for the past 24 hours it has been overcast, calm and dry in the Boquete area.

Nicaragua and Costa Rica will be hit the hardest, and I am glad to see some new members reporting from those two countries. If anything of significance happens in my region, I will report it here in the blog comments. I wish the best to my neighbors to the north and west.

(In 1998, long before my move to Panama in 2012, there was serious flooding and landslides caused by Hurricane Mitch, but that was a huge Cat 5 storm.)
Quoting 134. Icybubba:


No one is denying that pollution exists and is harmful but I see little reason to believe that it is causing the entire planet to warm, I know people in Australia who said it has not been a warm winter like we have been told, also remember when global warming was supposed to cause a decrease in snow? Well apparently we t is causing more now. But pollution does exist and causes smog and acid rain and hurts the environment

its causing the whole planet to warm
poisoning our atmosphere contaminating our waters
killing the fishes from the sea
if we don't do something about it
it will soon kill you and me
Quoting 136. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


its causing the whole planet to warm
poisoning our atmosphere contaminating our waters
killing the fishes from the sea
if we don't do something about it
it will soon kill you and me

See you did not provide evidence that co2 is the cause of it, yeah the earth has been on a bit of a warming trend but I believe it was caused by a natural change in earths climate like in the medieval warming period which was warmer than today based on records
Quoting 137. Icybubba:


See you did not provide evidence that co2 is the cause of it, yeah the earth has been on a bit of a warming trend but I believe it was caused by a natural change in earths climate like in the medieval warming period which was warmer than today based on records
icy earth is kinda like baking a pie if you keep adding more and more ingredients to the recipe of life well things normally go bad and we will have to throw the earth in the garbage and start the recipe all over again
Quoting 138. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

icy earth is kinda like baking a pie if you keep adding more and more ingredients to the recipe of life well things normally go bad and we will have to throw the earth in the garbage and start the recipe all over again

That is true but those ingredients can't cause the entire thing to warm up, seriously are you paying attention? I believe that pollution is horrible for the environment and that solar power should be what we do, but it does not exactly cause the entirety of the planet to warm
Otto. 2330z microwave pass :
Blog update.

As an aside, Otto's not looking as impressive as it was. I theorize upwelling on the western side?
Quoting 137. Icybubba:


See you did not provide evidence that co2 is the cause of it, yeah the earth has been on a bit of a warming trend but I believe it was caused by a natural change in earths climate like in the medieval warming period which was warmer than today based on records

Co2 is a heat trapping gas. Think of it like a car on a summer day the light can pass through the windows but heat cannot. Some of the light that hits the inside of the car gets converted into heat (same happens on Earth's surface) some of which the glass or in the planet's case greenhouse gases traps and heats up. This is a good thing because it allows Earth to have warm enough temperatures to support life but, we are adding vast amounts of CO2 to our atmosphere at an unprecedented rate which is trapping too much heat and causing a temperature rise too fast for our current ecosystems to adapt.
143. elioe
Quoting 134. Icybubba:


No one is denying that pollution exists and is harmful but I see little reason to believe that it is causing the entire planet to warm, I know people in Australia who said it has not been a warm winter like we have been told, also remember when global warming was supposed to cause a decrease in snow? Well apparently we t is causing more now. But pollution does exist and causes smog and acid rain and hurts the environment


Well, I might be somewhat against the more conservative assumptions of professional climatologists (once again). But indeed, inland Australia had an exceptionally rainy and cold local spring at least. When moisture piles up in the tropics, and high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere don't warm up nearly as much as they do in the Northern Hemisphere, Australia indeed is, in my opinion, one of those places, that can cool due to climate change. Why I think so, is due to more tropical moisture getting into wintertime frontal systems above Australia, leading to more rainfall and less sunlight. During local summer, in a climate of increased IR absorption, the atmosphere above ground reacts more strongly to heating on the ground. That drives even stronger low pressure systems in subtropical continents, reaching higher altitudes, capable of causing more rainfall, and less solar heating on the ground.
Quoting 94. Ryan1000:

"No storm ever observed in the Atlantic, including the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, is known to have attained a strength of Category 2 or higher after November 20. See below for more details on late-season Atlantic climatology. "

Dr. Masters, there was one hurricane in 1934 that attained major hurricane status late on November 23:

So it (Otto) wouldn't be the only one if it becomes one. There's an error in the WUnderground track on this storm though, it says here that it's only 85 mph.

Ryan, that was a great catch! I took a look at Hurdat and read the following below. Scrolled down a bit in the link to find this:

A pressure of 955 mb suggests winds of 100 kt according to the
Brown et al. north of 25N pressure-wind relationship if it was a central pressure. On that day,
the cyclone was moving a little slower than average and the circulation appeared large as indicated
by available observations. If 955 mb was a central pressure value, a 95 kt intensity would be
chosen. But since there is no information indicating that the 955 mb pressure was measured in the
center, a 100 kt peak intensity is chosen from 18Z on the 23rd through 00Z on the 24th (up from 55
and 60 kt originally, respectively - major changes). Major upward intensity adjustments of 20 to
45 kt are implemented at all times from 12Z on the 22nd through 18Z on the 24th.
Quoting 134. Icybubba:


No one is denying that pollution exists and is harmful but I see little reason to believe that it is causing the entire planet to warm, I know people in Australia who said it has not been a warm winter like we have been told, also remember when global warming was supposed to cause a decrease in snow? Well apparently we t is causing more now. But pollution does exist and causes smog and acid rain and hurts the environment


How about basic physics?
Quoting 141. KoritheMan:

Blog update.

As an aside, Otto's not looking as impressive as it was. I theorize upwelling on the western side?
Otto is moving very slowly, so you are probably right. Anyone have a current heat content map showing the southwestern Caribbean to put up?
You can see the large rain band coming ashore in Panama on this radar:
https://www.pancanal.com/eng/radar/main.html
Quoting 148. GeoffreyWPB:



Convection re-firing hopefully it doesn't strengthen too much before landfall.
The increase in Atlantic hurricane activity, which began in 1995, it is still active in Nov. 2016!

Hurricane Otto is the 15th named storm, and 7th hurricane of the busy 2016 hurricane season.

Otto is the 11th time the letter "O" has been used in the naming of Atlantic basin storms.
Quoting 141. KoritheMan:

Blog update.

As an aside, Otto's not looking as impressive as it was. I theorize upwelling on the western side?
The TCHP has also leveled off.
Quoting 118. 999Ai2016:

Australia, BOM. ENSO wrap-up, Current state of the Pacific and Indian oceans (link), issued 22 November 2016 :
Negative Indian Ocean Dipole ends, while central tropical Pacific Ocean warms.
(...) In the tropical Pacific, most indicators of ENSO are well within neutral bounds. In the past fortnight, sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific Ocean have warmed once again, further dampening chances of La Nina. (...)
Climate models predict the tropical Pacific Ocean will remain cooler than average, but in the ENSO-neutral range, through until the end of the 2016-17 summer. Only one of the eight models surveyed indicates La Nina for the summer months. A La Nina developing this late in the calendar year has only occurred once since 1980. (...)




Strange Noaa says La Nina while BOM says No Nina!!!
Quoting 137. Icybubba:


See you did not provide evidence that co2 is the cause of it, yeah the earth has been on a bit of a warming trend but I believe it was caused by a natural change in earths climate like in the medieval warming period which was warmer than today based on records


So, you have taken advanced courses in physics and climatology?

It's nice to have well trained and thoughtful people able to state well thought out unpopular positions. It's quite a nice change from defuses posting beliefs in nonsense because it was packaged well by a Mad Man.

Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting 137. Icybubba:


See you did not provide evidence that co2 is the cause of it, yeah the earth has been on a bit of a warming trend but I believe it was caused by a natural change in earths climate like in the medieval warming period which was warmer than today based on records


LOL you believe that do you? Heh. ..um, and how do YOU know that it was warmer in medieval times? Do YOU know the science that would indicate that that was so??

Could you replicate it?

Or do you just sorta believe whatever the hell strikes you as convenient?

Don't answer that question, answer THIS one:

People are often of a kind, and where they use a certain sort of 'solution', well they just use it anywhere.
So, here's the question: What are your personal relationships like?
Does choosing the convenient belief seem to be working for you?

I don't need to know the answer, but you might find it valuable.
Quoting 134. Icybubba:


No one is denying that pollution exists and is harmful but I see little reason to believe that it is causing the entire planet to warm...

Then you haven't looked either at the data or the published science. A quick perusal of either makes it clear that a) the planet is warming very rapidly; and b) human activity is the cause. It's a fact, not an opinion.

Quoting 134. Icybubba:
...I know people in Australia who said it has not been a warm winter like we have been told...

Oh, well. I guess we can throw out the data. After all, some anonymous person on the internet heard something from anonymous people "in Australia". LOL

Quoting 134. Icybubba:
...also remember when global warming was supposed to cause a decrease in snow?

No, I don't remember that. Please provide evidence that that is the case and that it applies to 2016. TIA

It is nice that you acknowledge that pollution exists, though.
156. vis0
Wha Otto, when? (not even lurking as of late.)

► For my CRAZY opinion on Otto and things around Otto, try reading my comment on my zilly blog LINK auto scrolls to comment when that blog is fully displayed.


► Skimming by last 6 blogbytes of Dr. Masters saw am EM report / link posted by justmehouston...here my reply on that blogbyte of Dr. Masters.

wishing all a safe trip ...specially if its through a greasy kitchen floor gobble (chew) gobble.
Dia-buh-dia-dia-buh-dia-buh-dia-budia-dia..... WHAT???

LA Times: Trump veers off script on climate change, his potential conflicts of interest and even whether to prosecute Clinton

"...Trump, who once declared global warming a "hoax" perpetrated by the Chinese, backed off his skepticism of climate change. He said he believed there is a connection to human activity and warming — but he is still undecided about how much of one. And he said he has an open mind to keeping in place the international climate agreement President Obama took a lead in negotiating, which Trump has been vowing for months to withdraw from. .."

Link

Sheesh. What to think?
Quoting 137. Icybubba:


See you did not provide evidence that co2 is the cause of it, yeah the earth has been on a bit of a warming trend but I believe it was caused by a natural change in earths climate like in the medieval warming period which was warmer than today based on records

What you (or I) believe is of no consequence. There is actual data out there. You would benefit from familiarizing yourself with it and ignoring the sophistry and dishonesty on denialist blogs.
Very cold convective burst ongoing with Otto at the moment. Rainbow even showing a bit of black:



You don't see that a lot in the Atlantic!
Someone said it was cooler than usual in Bismarck SD. Today was 34deg and last year it was 35.


To think the N Leewards have been stuck in an extremely boring pattern in 2016...

Tropical waves have been South all the time... TCs moved either too far North (Fiona, Gaston, Karl, Nicole :/) or too far South (Matthew :/)... then october/november rain stayed just west of us flooding PR/DR and the USVI and leaving us with huge rain deficits.

Even 2013 brought more rain than 2016, and of course 2015 too.

2016 is clearly one of the most boring year I ever experienced regarding the weather...

The way the rain almost always avoided us leaves me speeless.

Quoting 160. Grothar:

Someone said it was cooler than usual in Bismarck SD. Today was 34deg and last year it was 35.

I believe you are thinking of North Dakota, but you spelled Bismarck right.
Quoting 162. nymore:


I believe you are thinking of North Dakota, but you spelled Bismarck right.


I think you missed the humor of putting SD. But congrats on noticing it anyway :)
Quoting 134. Icybubba:


No one is denying that pollution exists and is harmful but I see little reason to believe that it is causing the entire planet to warm


A couple of basic science courses would do much to enlighten you. CO2 absorbs and remits long-wave IR radiation. It's the same property that allows it to be used in IR cutting lasers. If you increase the amount of CO2, you increase the amount of IR that the atmosphere can absorb and re-emit while simultaneously reducing the mean free path of that radiation. If you have a big heat sink underneath all that (the oceans), then more of the re-emitted energy gets absorbed.

Conservation of energy. In order for the planet to cool, it has to emit more energy than it receives. CO2 and other greenhouse gases prevent that from happening. The more add, the more heat is retained, the warmer the world. Basic physics and chemistry that has been well known for over a century.

Quoting 134. Icybubba:
I know people in Australia who said it has not been a warm winter like we have been told


No, you weren't told that. Global warming means on average the globe is getting warmer, and anecdotal evidence is worthless (not scientifically valid or rigorous). Climate and weather are not the same thing. Regional variances may lead to some regions getting cooler. Some will get hotter. Some will drier, some will get wetter. Climate deals with long term patterns and averages. Trying to discredit, say, a 100 year projection by looking at what happens in a given season or even a given decade is silly.

Quoting 134. Icybubba:
also remember when global warming was supposed to cause a decrease in snow? Well apparently we t is causing more now.


No, global warming does not mean less snow. It's still going to get cold in winter. What global warming does mean is more atmospheric moisture. So while the extent of snow cover will decrease as the world warms, what areas do get snow have a higher likelihood of getting large snowfall totals.

Again, this is basic cause and effect. Grab an intro book to meteorology and climatology. You'll be able to make a lot more sense (and stronger arguments) with a solid background in the sciences you seek to discredit.
Quoting 154. MontanaZephyr:



LOL you believe that do you? Heh. ..um, and how do YOU know that it was warmer in medieval times? Do YOU know the science that would indicate that that was so??

Could you replicate it?

Or do you just sorta believe whatever the hell strikes you as convenient?

Don't answer that question, answer THIS one:

People are often of a kind, and where they use a certain sort of 'solution', well they just use it anywhere.
So, here's the question: What are your personal relationships like?
Does choosing the convenient belief seem to be working for you?

I don't need to know the answer, but you might find it valuable.


My personal relationships are fine. I have found that learning to know what I know, and accept that what I do not know other do know. And when I find people trained in things I do not kno, it is best to accept that they know more than I about the subject, and that my beliefs, no matter how closely held or irrelevant.

As are the beliefs of others who do not know, and even more so for those that are ill informed.

Sorry, this set up is a joke if you compare to earlier versions of the same .. what has happened? The weather futures ala forcasting, have not loaded in a week.. is anybody actually home? Do the new owners really care? What a loss, as if it really should matter..






167. vis0

Quoting 157. MontanaZephyr:

Dia-buh-dia-dia-buh-dia-buh-dia-budia-dia..... WHAT???

LA Times: Trump veers off script on climate change, his potential conflicts of interest and even whether to prosecute Clinton

"...Trump, who once declared global warming a "hoax" perpetrated by the Chinese, backed off his skepticism of climate change. He said he believed there is a connection to human activity and warming — but he is still undecided about how much of one. And he said he has an open mind to keeping in place the international climate agreement President Obama took a lead in negotiating, which Trump has been vowing for months to withdraw from. .."

Link

Sheesh. What to think?
Maybe understands that its important to keep the sen/house rep/rep.  As in repubs winning RE-elections in 2017/2018 so THEN turns to doing drastic changes w/o worrying of losing "3 card monte advantage". (3 levels of governing through untruths)
Max will need to update the winner list also!

Quoting 131. Icybubba:


Based on history this has been an above average season exceeding both the named storm and hurricane averages, if Otto manages to make Cat 3 the we will have exceeded the major hurricane average as well
Quoting 150. Stormwatch247:

The increase in Atlantic hurricane activity, which began in 1995, it is still active in Nov. 2016!

Hurricane Otto is the 15th named storm, and 7th hurricane of the busy 2016 hurricane season.

Otto is the 11th time the letter "O" has been used in the naming of Atlantic basin storms.


Just to think I predicted 16/8/3 in mid-April, if only 1 more harmless hurricane (under Category 3) could form!
You still have around 30+ days for your dream to come true!

Quoting 169. yankees440:



Just to think I predicted 16/8/3 in mid-April, if only 1 more harmless hurricane (under Category 3) could form!
Quoting 170. swflurker:

You still have around 30+ days for your dream to come true!




Very unlikely though :(
Just want to publicly thank Baltimore Brian for his article postings throughout the years. It's my understanding that he is not doing this anymore.

It will be missed - I sure appreciated the time he took in putting the article list together.
Big secondary blob to the north of Otto, reminds me of Matthew's strange shapes.
Quoting 137. Icybubba:


See you did not provide evidence that co2 is the cause of it, yeah the earth has been on a bit of a warming trend but I believe it was caused by a natural change in earths climate like in the medieval warming period which was warmer than today based on records

How does the Medieval Warm Period compare to current global temperatures?

Here's an excerpt from Skeptical Science:

"...Just how hot was the Medieval Warm Period? Was the globe warmer than now? To answer this question, one needs to look beyond warming in a few regions and view temperatures on a global scale.

Prior temperature reconstructions tend to focus on the global average (or sometimes hemispheric average). To answer the question of the Medieval Warm Period, more than 1,000 tree-ring, ice core, coral, sediment and other assorted proxy records spanning both hemispheres were used to construct a global map of temperature change over the past 1,500 years (Mann 2009). The Medieval Warm Period saw warm conditions over a large part of the North Atlantic, Southern Greenland, the Eurasian Arctic, and parts of North America. In these regions, temperature appears to be warmer than the 1961–1990 baseline. In some areas, temperatures were even as warm as today. However, certain regions such as central Eurasia, northwestern North America, and the tropical Pacific are substantially cooler compared to the 1961 to 1990 average.



Figure 1: Reconstructed surface temperature anomaly for Medieval Warm Period (950 to 1250 A.D.), relative to the 1961– 1990 reference period. Gray areas indicates regions where adequate temperature data are unavailable.

How does the Medieval Warm Period compare to current conditions? Here is the temperature pattern for the last decade (1999 to 2008). What we see is widespread warming (with a few exceptions such as regional East Antarctic cooling)



Figure 3: Surface temperature anomaly for period 1999 to 2008, relative to the 1961– 1990 reference period. Gray areas indicates regions where adequate temperature data are unavailable (NOAA).

The Medieval Warm Period was not a global phenomenon. Warmer conditions were concentrated in certain regions. Some regions were even colder than during the Little Ice Age. To claim the Medieval Warm Period was warmer than today is to narrowly focus on a few regions that showed unusual warmth. However, when we look at the broader picture, we see that the Medieval Warm Period was a regional phenomenon with other regions showing strong cooling..."
175. NNYer
Quoting 172. Dakster:

Just want to publicly thank Baltimore Brian for his article postings throughout the years. It's my understanding that he is not doing this anymore.

It will be missed - I sure appreciated the time he took in putting the article list together.


What happened with Brian? His posts were awesome!
Quoting 157. MontanaZephyr:

Dia-buh-dia-dia-buh-dia-buh-dia-budia-dia..... WHAT???
LA Times: Trump veers off script on climate change, his potential conflicts of interest and even whether to prosecute Clinton

"...Trump, who once declared global warming a "hoax" perpetrated by the Chinese, backed off his skepticism of climate change. He said he believed there is a connection to human activity and warming %u2014 but he is still undecided about how much of one. And he said he has an open mind to keeping in place the international climate agreement President Obama took a lead in negotiating, which Trump has been vowing for months to withdraw from. .."
Link
Sheesh. What to think?

Exactly. I'm curious to see how these contradictory statements will pan out. What a circus.
Trump to scrap Nasa climate research in crackdown on 'politicized science'
Nasa's Earth science division is set to be stripped of funding as the president-elect seeks to shift focus away from home in favor of deep space exploration
The Guardian, Oliver Milman in New York, Wednesday 23 November 2016 05.00 GMT
Quoting 167. vis0:


Maybe understands that its important to keep the sen/house rep/rep.  As in repubs winning RE-elections in 2017/2018 so THEN turns to doing drastic changes w/o worrying of losing "3 card monte advantage". (3 levels of governing through untruths)

Agree. Whatever needed to be said to win the election was said. Now whatever will keep the largest number of people aligned for the next election will be said. Looking on from the outside, it's all political rhetoric. I'm not sure if he even has a position on these issues .....
More severe weather ahead for northeastern Spain and southern France due to low "Queenie". Crazy amounts of rain yesterday at some places in the region of Genoa (northwestern Italy) with nearly 600mm (23 inches).
Italian report.

A cut-off low is about to develop which should circle Portugal and Spain the next days.

More weather alerts for south of France as storm heads west
The Local (France), Published: 23 Nov 2016 09:00 GMT 01:00

Discussion at Estofex

good/morning thankfully windspeed wise Otto does not seem to be getting any stronger. bad news Otto seems to be getting heavier . good luck all ticos and nicas
most of the seats up for election in two yrs are currently held by democrats. not good news for the democratic party.
Desperately dry in Cayman
And it seems we are stuck
Crazy
The Real War on Science

Link
I see the blog is still a place for discussing the election and not the weather. Someone said that was going to stop and not be allowed a long time ago.
Quoting 176. barbamz:


Exactly. I'm curious to see how these contradictory statements will pan out. What a circus.
Trump to scrap Nasa climate research in crackdown on 'politicized science'
Nasa's Earth science division is set to be stripped of funding as the president-elect seeks to shift focus away from home in favor of deep space exploration
The Guardian, Oliver Milman in New York, Wednesday 23 November 2016 05.00 GMT


i think he himself is much more open minded than a lot of the people he's surrounding himself with. really hope this doesn't happen. also honestly believe we have the first atheist president in office, although he'd never admit it. barbamz, can you explain to me the hyper link with the article title in it again? i'll write it down this time, i swear :P
Good morning from Austin. We had a nice line of thunderstorms roll through the area in the wee hours of the morning giving us around half an inch of rain over the last 24. Temps are in the low to mid 50s. The sunrise this morning was awesome as it was obscured by the aft side of the frontal boundary that had moved off to the east. Wishing you all a happy Thanksgiving tomorrow.
Quoting 176. barbamz:


Exactly. I'm curious to see how these contradictory statements will pan out. What a circus.
Trump to scrap Nasa climate research in crackdown on 'politicized science'
Nasa's Earth science division is set to be stripped of funding as the president-elect seeks to shift focus away from home in favor of deep space exploration
The Guardian, Oliver Milman in New York, Wednesday 23 November 2016 05.00 GMT


I'm cautiously optimistic.

1. Space research (even deep space exploration) always pays. You may not see results in a single fiscal year, but the findings can even return information needed for Earth's atmospheric studies.

2. Maintaining or increasing funding to NOAA as a result, especially with atmospheric conditions swinging to extremes, is going to be the outcry from anyone impacted by the weather shifts. This includes large ag, NASA launch sites, major ports along the hurricane tracks, weather conditions over the PE's beloved major infrastructure projects.

It's starting to look like he's throwing out ideas looking for popular feedback, like a stand-up comic firing out one-liners, seeing what gets a response.
Quoting 176. barbamz:


Exactly. I'm curious to see how these contradictory statements will pan out. What a circus.
Trump to scrap Nasa climate research in crackdown on 'politicized science'
Nasa's Earth science division is set to be stripped of funding as the president-elect seeks to shift focus away from home in favor of deep space exploration
The Guardian, Oliver Milman in New York, Wednesday 23 November 2016 05.00 GMT


Politicized science? That's double speak for "science I don't like or someone is paying me not to like". It seems to happen whenever science says we're doing something bad, and companies want to continue doing something bad to keep making money. That's why it took decades of legal wrangling for anything to be done about leaded gasoline, ozone depletion, smoking, and so on.

I'm wondering if Trump thinks vaccinations are part of this "politicized science" as well. I know some of his supporters already think meteorology is "politicized science" based on the comments they made in regards to hurricane Matthew (it's a conspiracy of the left to win more votes!).
202. elioe
Currently +5 Celsius and light rain here. Many days ago, all the snow we received during the exceptional (by current, changed climate standards) early November cold spell melted away. But these warm conditions are going to end soon and then:



Blah. Fortunately Tampere is going to get only 10 cm or so. Compared to the up to 30 cm predicted for Cajania region.
Quoting 203. pipelines:



I often wonder how miserable someone must be in their personal life in order for them to feel the need to get enjoyment from belittling people on the internet they don't even know.

On the subject of participation trophies, as a child of the 90s who received those things while playing youth sports, myself and all my teammates didn't give a crap about them. It was our parents who wanted the pointless things, not the players. If you want to mock the "participation trophy culture" as so many conservatives seem to want to do for unknown reasons to me, you should be mocking the parents born in the 50s-70s who demanded the stupid things.
Greetings P.L ...The era people were born has nothing to do with it. Every person is different. Fingerprints are unique to each person and so is there personality. I know exactly what your saying, but those types have been around since the beginning of humanity.
Quoting 176. barbamz:


Exactly. I'm curious to see how these contradictory statements will pan out. What a circus.
Trump to scrap Nasa climate research in crackdown on 'politicized science'
Nasa's Earth science division is set to be stripped of funding as the president-elect seeks to shift focus away from home in favor of deep space exploration
The Guardian, Oliver Milman in New York, Wednesday 23 November 2016 05.00 GMT

Yes, scrapping GISTEMP will surely stop AGW/CC in its tracks.

(Just in case: That is sarcasm.)
sorry just got here but i guess playing the time out game is no longer a option an that individual he will be removed from the site all together including all new names create and linked to the first handle nice is out the window and so is the user as well goodbye
Getting back to the weather, we do have OTTO out there, its still looking like a potential Thanksgiving hurricane landfall. Hope Central America is prepared.

Since Opal was the first named "O" storm in 1995, we are now on our 11th "O" named storm - OTTO - just 21 years later. In the "slower" years - before 1995 - who would have thought the Atlantic basin would be getting up to hurricane names such as Rita, Sandy, or Wilma! And then we hit the Greek Alphabet in 2005 ..

Odette and Peter formed in December 2003. Alex formed in January 2016. It is possible the Atlantic basin will continue to see more off-season activity.

This is an interesting WEATHER BLOG, and a great review of late-season hurricane discussion. Considering how many November and December storms we have seen since 1995, it is obvious we are continuing a busy trend of hurricane activity.




Won't be surprised to see other storms forming between now and Dec. 31, 2016, somewhere between Otto and Sierra Leone.
Quoting 181. 19N81W:

Desperately dry in Cayman
And it seems we are stuck
Crazy


We need to leave and go the Dominica they get rain every single day... and when a system comes near the N Leewards, Dominica still manage to get more rain than us... Crazy!
16L/TS/O/CX


otto seems to be struggling a little and has moved a little more towards the north of Costa Rica at the moment on approach and will begin the crossover later tonight it appears
Quoting 185. PensacolaDoug:

The Real War on Science

Link


That was a pretty cool article. Thanks for sharing. It really opened my mind.
Latest models want to bring a system towards the Lesser Antilles from the NW !





Quoting 200. Xyrus2000:



Politicized science? That's double speak for "science I don't like or someone is paying me not to like". It seems to happen whenever science says we're doing something bad, and companies want to continue doing something bad to keep making money. That's why it took decades of legal wrangling for anything to be done about leaded gasoline, ozone depletion, smoking, and so on.

I'm wondering if Trump thinks vaccinations are part of this "politicized science" as well. I know some of his supporters already think meteorology is "politicized science" based on the comments they made in regards to hurricane Matthew (it's a conspiracy of the left to win more votes!).
Go read " The Real War on Science" written by journalist who works for the New York Times. I posted a link to it in post 185.
182 started the political discussion and it's still up. Just saying.
Quoting 214. CaribBoy:

Latest models want to bring a system towards the Lesser Antilles from the NW !






Hope springs eternal!
Quoting 178. barbamz:

More severe weather ahead for northeastern Spain and southern France due to low "Queenie". Crazy amounts of rain yesterday at some places in the region of Genoa (northwestern Italy) with nearly 600mm (23 inches).
Italian report.

A cut-off low is about to develop which should circle Portugal and Spain the next days.

More weather alerts for south of France as storm heads west
The Local (France), Published: 23 Nov 2016 09:00 GMT 01:00

Discussion at Estofex

Thanks for the info, that's crazy indeed. In France yesterday, two stations in the south, southeast of the country had recorded 72 hours/3 days rain totals of 510 & 550 mm - about 20 & 21 inches : Link
This afternoon, orange alerts have been extended by Meteo-France compared to their previous map, featured in the Local's article, but no red alerts have been issued so far, and the map from vigicrues (gov. flood watch agency) shows that several rivers that were under orange watch yesterday have been downgraded to yellow watch since : Link
It's wait and see now, but most of the additional rain in the next 5 days is going to fall on the Italian side of the Alps - according to climate-reanalyzer/GFS : Link
Looks like more flooding could occur there.
Edit - impressive squall line over NE Spain at the moment : Link
Quoting 21. weathermanwannabe:



Thanks; gonna just listen to the GPS lady give me the directions and I am going to drive like an old lady through it....


Also, if I remember correctly from my Montana days, if you do start to slide, put the vehicle in neutral to stop the wheels from turning. Not sure if that is still appropriate with today's modern vehicles, but it was definitely something you did back in the 80's (I wound up in a couple of ditches anyway LOL).
Quoting 216. PensacolaDoug:

182 started the political discussion and it's still up. Just saying.
not anymore
gobble,gobble....

😯
Quoting 217. PensacolaDoug:

Hope springs eternal!


Hopefully, hopefully huge rains will come xD
Quoting 221. Patrap:

gobble,gobble....

😯
happy thanksgiving to u and yours pat
Quoting 223. Patrap:

stuck inside these 4 walls, sent inside forever..

😁
Great tune...:)
Thanx keep..we doing a simple Thanksgiving here tomorrow.

👍
Source : Link
228. OKsky
Quoting 215. PensacolaDoug:

Go read " The Real War on Science" written by journalist who works for the New York Times. I posted a link to it in post 185.


I just read it, I agree with it in one regard. Anti-science should be fought against and debated no matter where it is coming from. No free passes. There is plenty of dum-dum anti-gmo crap that gets parroted almost exclusively out of the left. There are also bi-partisan anti-science movements such as anti-vax. That fact does not take anything away from the master level derp coming from the right.... Including when christian groups take their backassward religious views and try to push them on kids by undermining what is taught as science in public schools wrt to biology.... perhaps aligning your religion with a political party and vice versa the way they did in the 90's isn't really good for either. Anyways, I digress, after saying all of that..... It doesn't alter the fact that climate change denial is ignorant and reckless, it doesn't matter what political party the person advocating it is in.
Quoting 214. CaribBoy:

Latest models want to bring a system towards the Lesser Antilles from the NW !






For your sake I hope its true, and for mine so we can have a last storm.
Quoting 215. PensacolaDoug:

Go read " The Real War on Science" written by journalist who works for the New York Times. I posted a link to it in post 185.

Yeah, I read that article. The author covers several areas,primarily the "soft sciences", such as sociology, damning the "hard sciences" with the same brush as if the two are equally likely to be wrong. Of course, he says nothing about economics, which also claims to be a science, a claim repeatedly shown to be false.

When the author gets around to climate science, his reference is Judith Curry, who has gone full denialist of late. I watched when she gave testimony last December before the Senate committee led by Ted Cruz. She seems to think the so-called "satellite temperature" data is the best metric for measuring global warming, but that data is suspect, especially the latest UAH "beta" version 6, the description of which has not appeared in a peer reviewed journal.

There are actually 4 groups presenting such satellite data and the UAH version gives the smallest warming trend. There are good reasons to question this result and I have a paper in process which clearly points to one difference. Not that the conservative anti-science crowd will change their minds if the UAH result is ultimately discredited.


Happy Thanksgiving to all who celebrate the tradition
233. NNYer
Quoting 213. fmbill:



That was a pretty cool article. Thanks for sharing. It really opened my mind.

That was the most bizarre thing I've ever read. I am struggling to connect the dots.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 233. NNYer:


That was the most bizarre thing I've ever read. I am struggling to connect the dots.
Using "confirmation bias" to describe consensus is crafty. That article is junk.
Quoting 237. SouthTampa:

Using "confirmation bias" to describe consensus is crafty. That article is junk.

It's postmodernism come full circle.
New fire just south of Warren County,TN...Folks here need to be alert...Bone dry, and wind gusting to near 30 mph...

240. Ed22
This blog sucks! i tell you; too slow people come on we have Hurricane Otto their to track.
Quoting 233. NNYer:


That was the most bizarre thing I've ever read. I am struggling to connect the dots.


I couldn't finish reading it once I realized the mental gymnastics he was embracing to discredit science in general...
otto will be a historic storm for lake nicaraqua. worse than any one ever remembers
ottos going to dig a trench for nicas canal this afternoon. to this novice vis loop its a major. good luck to them
Mild normal temps here in Chicagoland today, about 5 C. just like Tampere, Finland. It rained about 1/2" or 12 mm. Everything is muddy now. The turkey is in the oven!
Happy thanksgiving.
150 Nicaraguans in the border were rescued by Costa Rican rescue authorities and were moved to shelters in Costa Rica. The president ordered to provide humanitarian assistance to any person that crosses the border asking for help as a result of the emergency.

We would not be able to do that if we were to build a wall lol.. just saying
And to add to the crazy weather, snow in Tokyo for the first time on this date since 1958.
Quoting 236. WunderAlertBot:

JeffMasters has created a new entry.


Why don't these show up on the wunderground site?
'We are in shock': historic Bolivia drought hammers homes and crops

The country%u2019s worst drought in 25 years, spurred by poor management, El Nio and climate change, has reservoirs drying up and hospitals struggling

Link


robertscribbler
Scribbling for environmental, social and economic justice
Climate Change Has Left Bolivia Crippled by Drought

Link
this blog is old lol
250. imara
Why are the blog comments stuck on November 24th? New address? Blog closed?
Quoting 220. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

not anymore


Joseph Goebbels is alive and working!
Slow blog.

Hello!? Is this thing on?

Similarly, kindly ask Dr. Masters to refrain from inserting his political views in his blog.