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Ophelia--a hurricane tomorrow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:17 PM GMT on September 07, 2005

The shear relaxed significantly over Ophelia in the past few hours, and she is now intensifying quickly. The hurricane hunters found a central pressure of 999 mb at 10:50am EDT, a 5 mb drop from seven hours ago. The peak winds of 40 kt (45 mph) on the northwest side are still not too impressive, but these will increase substantially in the next 12 hours, given what the pressure is doing and what I'm seeing on radar.

Long range radar out of Melbourne shows that convection is now starting to wrap all the way around the center, at a rate which is quite impressive. A closed center is likely later this afternoon. This will allow for more rapid intensification, and it now seems likely that Ophelia will be a Category 1 hurricane by tomorrow.

The satellite presentation of Ophelia shows a small storm, with good outflow to the north, and some improving outflow on the south side. The outflow to the north is joining and being aided by the outflow channel on the north side of Hurricane Nate. It will be interesting to see what happens to Ophelia's outflow when Nate scoots off to the northeast tomorrow; my guess is that there will be little effect.

Most of the action has been on the north side of Ophelia, as the northeast coast of Florida can attest to. Nearly three inches of rain has fallen along some coastal areas, from squalls that have rotated in from the ocean. Winds gusts at the St. Augustine pier were as high as 35 - 40 mph overnight. Sustained winds over the ocean areas off shore are 40 - 45 mph, and 12 foot seas have been observed. Large waves from Ophelia are already pounding northern Florida and the Carolinas. Given Ophelia's slow forecast track, this will be a major beach erosion event for these areas. As Ophelia "spins up", the outer rain bands have moved closer to the center of the storm and away from the coast, so Florida and Georgia will get a bit of a break from the rains the remainder of today. By tomorrow, the rains will probably again spread over these areas as Ophelia intensifies and expands in size.


Figure 1. Total rainfall from Ophelia as estimated by the Jacksonville Doppler radar.

The long term track and intensity forecast for Ophelia are highly uncertain. With the storm now intensifying more quickly than anticipated, the models are likely to have some quite different solutions later today. The computer model map has the appearance of a squashed spider, with each model taking Ophelia a different direction. The GFDL and BAMS Medium solutions take Ophelia westward across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico almost immediately. These solutions are already incorrect, and are being discounted at this time. The Canadian model takes Ophelia out to sea behind Nate, but is the only model calling for this track. What I believe is the most likely scenario is one that is not promising for the U.S. This solution is the one favored by the GFS, UKMET, and NOGAPS models. These models forecast that steering currents over Ophelia will remain weak the next five days, which will allow her to remain over the warm ocean waters and gather strength. A weak trough of low pressure is forecast to move off the east coast Friday, which should act to push Ophelia away from the coast slightly. This trough could also create some shear and dump cold, dry air into the cyclone, weakening it temporarily. However, the GFS, UKMET, and NOGAPS models forecast that this trough will bypass Ophelia, and a ridge of high pressure will build back in forcing Ophelia westward or south-westward back toward the U.S. coast early next week. With so much time over warm water, and the shear likely to decrease once the trough bypasses her, Ophelia will have a good chance of attaining at least Category 2 hurricane status and making landfall somewhere on the Southeast U.S. coast. All interests along the Southeast coast from Miami to Cape Hatteras need to watch this storm.

Nate
Nate is a Category 1 hurricane with a large eye, and should intensify into a Category 2 hurricane by tomorrow. Nate is currently drifting slowly north, but is expected to accelerate norhteastward when the trough currently moving off of the East Coast picks it up tomorrow. This may spell trouble for Bermuda, which has already hoisted a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch.

Maria
Maria was briefly downgraded to a tropical storm, but is now back to a Category 1 hurricane. She is expected to turn into a large and powerful extratropical storm by tomorrow and bring high winds and heavy rain to Iceland on Saturday.

The rest of the tropics
An upper-level low pressure system is over the western Gulf of Mexico and is generating some showers there. There is now some surface low pressure developing underneath, but tropical development in this type of system happens very slowly, and usually not at all.

A large tropical wave with spin just moved off the coast of Africa near 9N, and will have to be watched as it moves westward this week.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

here is the link to the gfs

Link
From Miami to Cape Hatteras, now there is a bold prediction.lol.
lol stormj
should be a new vortex message soon. really interested on what it says
storm, they are really going out on a limb with that prediction! lol
Her bands are just off the coast now.
Melbourne long range radar is very impressive
Dr. Jeff's squashed spider decribes it even better than the 4 year old w/ crayons
I just got a sight overloaded message. First time I've seen that.
Damn my slow pc. Still waiting for the GFS to load.
We need Cantore NOW!
getting stronger...that is obvious. Doesn't appear she has moved at all in the past few hours.
from the gfs out so far she still shows a loop just more east meaning more likely a northern landfall. will need to wait for the next 2 days to come out but it shows that the factors are still the same and the speed of the trof and nate will affect how far out the loop will be and where the landfall will occur
yea i got kicked off, too. Wierd.

Hi Pot.
I think this got lost in the shuffle. 20 miles inland, brick house, good roof, few dancing pine trees--can I handle a cat3?
If Cantore shows up, then you know you have a chance at seeing the worst of the storm lol
Lefty-

What are the chances this thing pulls a Jeanne and loops right back to Central Florida? These models are driving me bananas!
That GFS shows a high building back over most of the SE. That would push her back in to central Florida in what about 10 days?
I keep getting the same thing also SJ. Looks like we are STILL in the "mix" my friend.
Better qquestion. Would she not ride around the south side of that high over the SE?
With her being out at sea she could build a surge also Tybee. Quick some one tie that bomb down.
no storm i don't think thats what it shows. will wait and see what the full model run is


only you can know if u feel safe in ur home. could the tress fall on your hosue would be my first concern. and also do u have people depending on you for safety ie kids than u should leave if a cat 3 is headed towards you. but only you know if ur hous can take winds in excess of 100mph
HA!! I'll let you do the tieing my man!! HA!! We are only a few feet above sea level here...on a VERY small island!!
that ridge over the se will be backing off as a ridge to her south will be nuilding in. this will send her towards sc/nc in 10-11 days based on the new gfs run
I like how the gfs moves her about 30 miles over 48 hours.. bewteen 5 and 7 days out hmmmm
10 to 11 days..i was just laughing at that..looks like we will be here for awhile..lol..
whats ur point 79. systems that make a loop tend to meander befor they find that weakness that sends them going. the rudge in the se building in in that time frame blocks her movement. as it retreats she moves into that weakness some where around sc and nc.
The sooner the better either way. I am supposed to get married one week from this sat on an uninhabited island just 5 min south of here by boat. (Little Tybee).
OH GREAT!!! Just as some of the Katrina victims are being sent to the Carolinas, Here comes Ophelia!! That's sure to freak them out!! Especially the ones sent to Charleston.
sorry lefty, I cant trust a computer model 10 days out..
i doubt it will be that long out but it still shows the important things weatherguy, that the sterring currents will casue a loop and how far out that loops happens will determine how north the landfall location.
No point to the stall comment , just interesting
That's South Carolina, Not West Virginia! for those FEMA pilots out there LOL
track might be off but the model shows the currents that will induce a loop. my feeling is the location oif that loop might be off but there is still a loop. that is the key
Are you in a flood plane? How big are the trees? Will the trunks hit the house or will the bushy branches hit the house and soften the blow? Slab or crawl space? How well is the roof attached to the house? Do you have plenty of supplies?
That was my point about the GFS being the right outlier, since it takes a wider loop than other models.
A smaller loop, means a landfall further South
Oh yeah, the main thing is it still shows a slow moving system, that needs to be watched carefully...
Don't bank on Fema Cola. Game plan looked good, but the athletes looked like cocks of old. D looked awful too. Hve not seen that in years.
well no other runs are out yet 79. ukmet and nogaps the other 2 looping models are from yesterday. thats why u wait for all the recnt runs than say which one is the outlier one. more confident on a loop than a track west across florida iwill tell you that much
The GFS is the only recent run correct 79?
Flood plane...I am on a deep water "creek" .5 miles inland from the beach. I am only about 2 feet above water level at high tide. Not a pretty picture foresure.
The 12z GFS is pretty wild. In addition to taking the loop much farther out and slower it also builds an upper high over Ophelia while it is sitting out there. This appears to be one of those scenarios where the littlest of things can make a huge difference in the track.
lol lefty.
i would say the west track is looking more and more unlikely but will have to wait for the rest of the models today.
I know I would have to leave if even a cat2 comes my way...roof had it rough last year and, although it may make it, I would rather vacate out of here...maybe go visit all the earthquake swarms in California...come back, maybe Dec 1 when the season is over...
it doesn't build a ridge over her. i do see a anticyclone develop over her showing a poissible major cane but if u look at the model little closer no ridge builds over her. also yes little things will mater in the landfall local but the key to this run was did it still make the loop. yes it did. thats 3 runs with a loop so its getting more credenc and if the ukmet and nogaps come back woith a loop again u will see a shift in the forcast from the nhc. also i suspect in time we will see the gfdl get a handle on the system and come back into line
congrats on the marriage Tybee. By the looks of the latest GFS we may still be watching this thing then.
THANKS man!! And Unfortunantly it looks like you may be right.
If she grows in size this thing could dump on the SE for days.
anyone else living on the coast and has planned a wedding, please bump it to winter or spring...
is it me or did she wobble to the east alittle?
gfs takes it to nc/va border thru 11days. i doubt she will get that far north but its there. this whole run as i said was just to see if the loop was still there. also the slower the loop the stronger tthe storm. this could be a bad one
Well looks like its coming for leftyy..lol..But that far out who knows..lol..
yes i noted that a while ago. the circulation is rotating back under the mid-upperleve circulations as they have been detached and this cauise her to wobble west and than east
lol yeah weatherguy. bring her on. i be at va beach. i must say, 3 days ago i mentioned i had a dream i was on the beach waiting for a cane to make landfall. i always try to remebr vivid dreams like that as i belive they might hold a lil water u know lol.


i doubt she will be that far north but the key is she makes the loop. making a west track over florida less likely with every model run
The radar this morning has clearly shown some improved organization, but the visible satellite loop is still not real impressive. The circulation is very well defined now, but a large part of the core is still exposed and the upper level wind is still blowing back into the core from the east.
new vortex out



273
URNT12 KNHC 071658
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 07/1627Z
B. 28 DEG 44 MIN N
79 DEG 23 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1426 M
D. 40 KT
E. 045 DEG 50 NM
F. 123 DEG 40 KT
G. 042 DEG 57 NM
H. 998 MB
I. 21 C/ 1523 M
J. 23 C/ 1527 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. POORLY DEFINED
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 0316A OPHELIA OB 09
MAX FL WIND 40 KT NE QUAD 1607Z

pressure down some more and the circulation is still lsightly detached but not by much
Also winds more northerly today here along the coast..So Oph. may not be moving much west today.
I am very curious as to how the GFDL model will change when the new run comes out around 1:30 ET
hawk its due to the surface circulation being detached form the upper level at about 850mb level. this has been getting betetr and as i stated earlier it would take some time. the increase in orginisation is due to that caore getting closer to that upper level curculation. in the next recon we should see an attahced circulation and a betetr sat imgery
i feel 79 u will see a more loopy gfdl. if not in this run most likely in the next couple
Uh oh your having those dreams..I think you and ST are psycics..If this comes to VA..
lefty, u r truly obsessed...have you ever been through a hurricane? I thought it was fun the first time, but Francis taught me they are no fun at all!!!!
Leftyy- where is VA are you? I am from Richmond, but live in Fl south of Tampa now. Moving back to Richmond in 2 weeks.
Butterflymcb,

Here are the links I use

http://cirrus.sprl.umich.edu/wxnet/model/model.html - UM Weather (some of the models)

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/index.html/ - More tropical weather models

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ - the models you see on most forecasts

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/statement.asp?product=NOUS42
- Hurricane Hunter plan for the day

http://www.wunderground.com/global/Region/g5/VisSatellite.html
- African Coast sat pics

http://www.wunderground.com/global/Region/AT/IRSatellite.html
- Atlantic Infrared

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html
- east coast water vapor

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html
- various sat images

http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif
- Wind Sheer forecast

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/at.html
- water temps
yes i have been trhu many tropical cyclones but the first one i actually chased was isabeal in 2003. i did not get a chance last year cause i will not travel to far from home as the wife hates me chasing at all. so a sc,nc,va landfall would give me the oprtunity to chase her. i was all et to go chase irene but she moved away out to sea. really upsetting lol. also with gas prices what they are i am less inclined to travel to sc anyway so a nc or va storm is the farthest i will travel. that 3.00+ is killing me lol
the 12z nogaps takes her near Jacksonville, after a small cyclonic loop
north of richmond in fredericksburg. exit 130 off of 95 to be more exact. and when i am tracking a storm i usually will dream about it in some way but never have i dreamed so vividly of being in the storm like i did 3-4 days ago. was kind of erie if u ask me
yeah 79 i think right now the key is does she make a loop. at this point is looking more of a likley scenario. than we will ahve to watch and see how far ne she goes befor the loop to determine landfall location. i am more concerned about if she makes the loop right now more than where she does it. we will have time for that part of the track lol
scary, you know, sitting on the toilet to pea, hearing the wind howl thru the roof wondering "this is how they will find me...under my crumbled house with my pants down at the toilet!"
lol thast funny but not at the same time.
No matter what happnes it looks more and more like we will be eyeing this bitc for about a week.
If Jim cantore had any balls he'd be near the center of circulation a row boat giving us updates on Ophelia.
i know, lefty, had planned a trip to CA cause I kept dreaming of earthquakes, the week I was there, getting on the plane to leave is when they had the 7.2 offshore and then several smaller ones were felt in the LA area...never did feel one while I was there, yes I was chasing them...little harder though cause they are under the ground.
lol funny stormy. i find sometime dreams can tell u alot. and yes stormyj we will be watching this for some time
Ya, wouldn't mind seeing Jim around here...
lmao wannabe, but be careful your gonna make 888889/Jeffman/Jeff14 angry. Or at least one of them will be angry.
stormydee,

I have had one of those moments, a few years ago I was "sitting down call to nature" aka number 2. in a out house when a cottonmouth crawled in there with me..

Luckily I stayed very still until it left..
now stormy that is scary. never felt comfortable in da outhouse at my grandpas. always thought something might be in the hole and bite me on the bottom lol
Where is that little stinker 888889 today? We were gonna meet up so he could surf a cat 4.
Orion, your lucky to have your butt still.lol
Lefty,

I grew up in the backwoods of NC, a outhouse was a godsend compared to out in the woods with some leaves. As far as biting you on the butt. I usually lifted up the seat with a stick to check for wasp nests, black widows, wolf spiders and snakes. The cottonmouth in question came in via the air holes in the roof.
88889 said he will be back at 3:00 a few hours ago. Must be at school.
she still seems stationary or a bit east of her 11AM update, we'll see in the next 30 minutes.....
stormydee,

As I just posted to lefty, my butt was never in danger cause the cottonmouth came in from the roof and not up from the hole.. It was just the fact on finding me on the dead taking a dookie..

Anyhoot we return to our regular broadcasting..

Looks like thier is a good strong system coming off the African coast that some of the models want to build up
the convection gives the appearance of a west movement cause its wrapping around the cenetr and the storm is still some what assymetrical. the cenetr is on the est side of the convection and has not moved anywehre bet n or nnw. trust me on this.


yeah i had to spend my summers when i was growing up in the backwaoods of va with my grandpa and all he ahd was an outhouse. so i know exactly what ur saying. the wolf spiders were the worse. them buggers are huge
well, got to work. be back at 11, I wonder if Ophelia will move more than 20 miles while I am gone.....
77 thats why u sue the radar when you have it availible becasue unless you have a fixed eye motion is hard to determine at best
Oh wait, the new GFDL will be out in 1 minute........
orion, just glad u r ok from head to butt :-)
orion

if you didn't have to go beforehand I bet you did after.

snake wouldn't have to bite me, i'd have a heart attack
GFDL still calling for westward motion across the state just north of Tampa?
79, i see the gfdl is out but only for nate and maria. whats up with that lol. maybe they had a problem with the run
creek where do u see the gfdl at give me a link
Sorry, that was not a question it was a statement! The new GFDL is still calling for a westerly motion across Florida.
New GFDL, I'm outta here!
FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 28.6 79.3 340./ 7.0
6 28.5 79.8 254./ 3.9
12 28.4 79.6 132./ 1.4
18 28.4 79.7 278./ .6
24 28.5 79.7 342./ .9
30 28.4 80.1 256./ 2.9
36 28.3 80.2 225./ 1.2
42 28.2 80.2 196./ .7
48 28.4 80.2 348./ 1.4
54 28.6 80.3 343./ 2.4
60 28.6 80.3 311./ .9
66 28.8 80.5 307./ 2.3
72 29.3 80.7 342./ 4.8
78 29.7 81.0 327./ 5.3
84 30.0 81.7 292./ 7.0
90 30.3 82.9 283./10.7
96 30.8 84.2 291./11.7
102 31.4 85.3 300./11.4
108 32.1 86.3 303./10.9
114 32.9 87.2 312./11.3
120 34.0 87.6 338./11.2
126 34.9 87.8 352./ 9.6
i see it now and that is a major shift in track. the next run will probly have a loop. and that is a nw track not west like it has ahd for 3 runs. shows the gfdl has no hndle on the system
cheap little hodgie mart next door, gonna have to move my car if the wind picks up cause that sign by the street looks like it will fall on my car, swaying in too many directins...they never fixed it from last year...its very intimidating...could crash thru my work window, if the winds were stronger...but still quite quiet here considering whats off the coast...
Lefty,

I know that I made the mistake of trying to pet one when I was younger. Bit me 4 times before I could shake him off of me, they bite hard nuf to draw blood. Its cool as heck to watch them hunt one of the few spiders that will hunt in a pack
it is almost impossible for it to take that track. it is not picking up the shortwave and moved in respjnse to the ridge building in the gulf. the gfdl is out to lunch on this system
stormydee,

Trust me if I was a cat I would have about 1 or 2 lives left (LOL) and I am only 33.
Notwithoutmyprosac,

Yepper, took me a long time to go back into a outhouse or port-a-potty. But it wasn't the first or last time I had to clean my undies.
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2005090712&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
The CMC---Notice the high pressures building back into the east side of this storm. This is only 72 hours out there was still a weakeness in that ridge at 72 hours on the last model run.
yes 77 the gfdl is usually a good model but it has been wrong plenty of times and it moved opnly in response to the building heights in the gulf and the fact it was so far off course. it does not pick up on the shortwave trof. that makes it a unlikley model. just my opinion, we will see what the nhc says at 5pm
Lefty where do you view the GFDL model at? Link?
no creek that was what was letting the canadian model take her out to sea. its that blocking ridge most of the models say will caouse the loop. i am pretty sure we will see a loop from the canadian as well
i used the link here at this site but i also know what the steering factors are because i have been looking at this data for a couple of days now and a nw track at that speed shows that the gfdl does not pick up on the trof. its the trof that kicks the system ne in the models with a loop
That is what i was saying, the weakness in the ridge from nate is no longer shown on the latest run of the CMC.
creek here is a link to the prev cmc model run

Link

that ridge builds into the weakness much more quicjkly in the most recent model u just posted. it will recurve in the new cmc. that now makes most major models loop the system
Im not short on lives that I know of (except for when I almost fell off the grand canyon)...but I don't dare these hurricanes, I see it as Mother Nature will do what she wants no matter what man thinks she will do....
77, all models have systems and scenarios that make them wrong from time to time. they are discountuing it cause its not picking up on the trof and the ridge errosion to the ridge to the north. all the other models push the system to the ne except for the gfdl now. also all those ne models show a loop. the gfdl is just off on this system. u need to understand that all models have systems they can;t handle from time to time
that is why we have 20 so models and 8 major models we mainly focus on. cause sometimes some are wrong. the gfdl is wrong and i am a gfdl supporter myself
strength as nothing to do with this. the trof will kick her ne regardless if she was a ts or a cat 5. she is in a weeak steering current and that kick from the trof will give ehr the motion to the ne. ur grasping for straws instead of looking at why it is off which i think to most of us in here is very clear. all models are now in a general agreement except the gfdl. so the gfdl is being discounted.
StormyDee,

I hear ya on Frances. I moved to Jupiter in Nov '03 from Colorado of all places, so I had no clue about hurricanes. Anyway, I ended up riding out Frances alone in a relative's wood frame house on the water. I've always been fascinated by wx and wanted to document a 'cane. It was freaky, especially when I lost all the power and only had the phone for info. People kept calling me and sort of freaking me out even more, but eventually (mercifully!) the phone died too. There were a couple of moments where I was getting ready to jump in the closet or something. A couple of weeks later I rode out Jeanne a little further south, and it was much less nerve wracking than Frances. Both were very interesting, but the 2 weeks afterwards were the worst. 1 week no power for Frances, and 2 weeks no power for Jeanne. No AC, lots of cleanup, and FL heat are no fun.
The Canadian weather center has the model loop, including a full 144 hour loop for 12z. I'm not sure why that other site only does 72 hours for the 12z Canadian.

Link
for the bamm, gfld, gfs yes. i have more tha just that for my model loinks but its the easiest to view real quick
u r right lefty (sounds like an oxymoron)...anyway, she moved .1 west and nothing north...good eyes there!
that makes 4of 5 major models doing a loop. i feel real confident now on a loop more than ever
wrx - ya it was bad last year...everyone in town thought this year would be like last year, but I thought, nah, couldn't happen twice to FL...I cant rule it out totally, but so far we have been very fortunate...and being without power for several weeks is nothing compared to what those Katrina victims got - no phone, water, electricity, job, home, NOTHING left! I appreciate what I have been blessed with, my roof still on my house!
127. MJH
You all are silly about this loop. Sure it may wobble in a circular motion, any moron would get that right. Its going over florida though, just like those models you all want to disregard say.
mjh i am not saying she won't hit florida but she will take a loop asnd just a wobble. there is only one model taking it straight over florida now and that is the gfdl as the bam has shifte to the ne. and the next bamm run will probly have the loop as she is no good after 3 days anyway. but i think its clear we will see a jeane like loop


stormy it not about being right its just interpreting the data and knwoing what to look for thats all
MJH - horoscopes say - Your Goal Today: Accept Other Viewpoints....Thoughtful Mercury forms a tense half-square with expansive Jupiter in Libra today, rousing a need to connect mentally with others in an even-handed manner. But Mercury is in highly-focused Virgo, so we may have trouble accepting another point of view when it seems like we already have all the facts.
lol stormy thats to much lol
some people are wishcasting stormy and that gets u introuble casue u get tunnel vision. somepeoplealso can't see the big picture and models are guide. they give you differing views on what a certain weather scenario will do on a system. thats why we have more than one model. thats why we run those models more than once a day. but we have now gotten a concensu that will discount the gfdl because it fails to recognise the trof and the erroded ridge. u will see the nhc say the same thing at 500 when they give their update. the most likely track would be a loop into ga. but we will have to see where she goes after the loop but she will make a loop. i am pretty sure of that
StormyDee.

I agree, last year was a picnic for us compared to NOLA. It was actually a very experience that I'm glad I was able to witness and document. Wouldn't wish one on anybody though. If one does come again this year, I probably won't stick around if it has any potential above a 2.
the gfdlalso tregthens the syetm over land. this is another clue the gfdl has no graspon the system.
new vortex is out

URNT12 KNHC 071820
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 07/1751Z
B. 28 DEG 46 MIN N
79 DEG 19 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1422 M
D. 35 KT
E. 135 DEG 40 NM
F. 230 DEG 50 KT
G. 142 DEG 17 NM
H. 997 MB
I. 21 C/ 1541 M
J. 22 C/ 1519 M
K. 18 C/ NA
L. POORLY DEFINED
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 1/2 NM
P. NOAA2 0316A OPHELIA OB 16
MAX FL WIND 50 KT SE QUAD 1740Z

pressure continues to drop noe 997mbs and the flight level winds have picked up. she is getting stronger and betetr orginised though the circulation is still slightly detached
also a slight wobble east ward.
Is it likely that the GFDL will get a grasp on this storm over the course of the next few model runs?
How far south are you guys thinking she'll move before she cuts back toward the west?
the gfdl probly will after a few more model runs. u have seen the shift happen so thats a start.

the key to track will not be how south she gets but how north east she gets cause she will not opnly cut back west but move nw mostlikley after the loop so if she loops close to land she will impact a more southern area. a loop farther out in the atlantic will cause her to impact sc up to va. so its difficult to say but the concensus is she will loop somewhere and make a landfall anywehre from va to central florida in 7-9days from now
The facts are right now most of the major models do not take her west. So right now Wed., we can say she is not goin west. Could this change, sure it can, and it may by tonite. But the last 3 ot 4 runs of most of the major models have be consistent and thats what you need to look at. Also talking about the GFDL, it has shifted way right as well, so look at the trends when it comes to these models.
wow listen to mjh talk shiat, i saw it he started the smack talk. Im telling.
mjh has no clue on how to forcast and he is wichcasting in my opinion. like weatherguy said. we have seen a concencus in the last few modle runs of most of the major models. thats what u look for as well as trends. the gfdl needs to recognise that trof befor it will get a grasp on the system. it took her 4 model runs to recognise the bloicking ridge in the gulf so maybe it will take 4 more runs for it to recognise the trof moving across the us
From what I read from the NHC, Dr. Masters and Steve Gregory.....it's pure guesswork with this storm....and it likely will continue like that for the next 3 days at least. Are some of you going to continue posting obsesively every wobble and model run for the next 3 days. 72 hours from now the consensus is we'll be in the same position we're in now. Why don't you take a break? Take your children to the park.
u must have miss read jeff masters blog casue he feels more like aloop is probable and some of us enjoy watching and forcasting the storms. sounds like u have the problem cosmic so why don't u go to the park
Cosmic i wish i was at the park with my child but i am stuck at work today and there is a TS right off the coast..lol..
lol. i don't even know why he would post that crap. the nhc has stated that its the model spread making forcastung diffucult and the last 3 model runs have closed that spread. i expect to see a significant shift in the forcast track at the 5pm adv. they have been waiting on the gfdl and now it is more north but still not right in speed and track and thye know it. u will see the shift at 5pm and god forbid some of us track and forcast for ourselves than to go by evrything other people say. if u do this long enough u will realise that u can do just as good a job as the nhc.
wrx..
Good to see another Jupiter weather nut in here!
everyone obsesses about something, most here on this blog obsess the weather and all its awe!!!!!!!!! Ya, cosmic, go for a walk in the park, if you were here, you'd be soaked!!!
also most of us find this fun and a great hobby. ur in this for the diff reasons csomic. ur come here to find out what others are saying like steve or jeff but the point is neither of them work for the nhc and steve is a stock speculator so her is as much of a amatuer as some of us are. their opinions in my mind are just as credible as my own or as those from of the serius guys on here like 79 and weatherguy.
just cause they have a blog does not make them the experts, just like stev lyons is not a total expert on the weather channel. so unless u have anything to add cosmic just keep lurking befor u end up with a foot in ur mouth.

oh and if u read the posts some of us make predictions and we always say we will wait and see. thats the fuin in this and u my friend are strung way to tight
to lefty after katrina wiped out 2/3 of my house and surroundings destroyed my wifes parents home and her sisters
home and i have been working 12hrs aday without water got power yesterday. i live 8 miles north of biloxi. i am very perturbed with 79 lefty and the others with this prediction crap. for the
fact if they would go to accuweather pro joe bastardi who hit
katrinas track within 6miles 3 days out. he has this storm at 30.0 89.5 tuesday 965m/b he had katrina at 906 3 days out. and warned exactly what was going to happen READ HIS COLUMN AND QUIT GUESSING WITH THESE STUPID MODELS. dont expect a comment and really dont have time myself to sit behind a computer all day its a disaster here and sadly more on the way i pray the man is wrong but read the column and drop witchcraft carilina crap. my prayers go out to my fellow coastians.
These are monsters who dont like to be tamed, if you tell it where to go it will bite you on the arse. So merely suggest where you would like it to go. Ask it nicely. Whisper in its hurri-ear. I once spoke harshly to a hurricane and it slapped me in the face with a trash can. I learned my lesson. Respect them. Try the beans, theyre fantastic.
Why do you guys think accuweather is so far off the NHC track?

Do you think Bastardi ever considered changing his name?
THAT is an Oxymoron. "Weather Expert"
Weatherguy, I wasn't referring to you. Lefty(y), I was referring to you. I read Dr. Masters post and it talks about the LONG TERM forecast. Beyond 3 days. I was merely suggesting you take a break for awhile. Are you predicting something dramatic to happen in the next 72 hours. From what I've read you don't, so take a break. Save your brain cells for later when we may need them. From what I read there's a preyty good consensus that the storm will be somewhere from 0 to 100 miles from where it is right now in 72 hours. It's after that time that things will get interesting possibly. I've been at work. Run my errands. Taken care of my kids. I check in here every 2 hours and you're always here. I figured out where you live. Here.
Cosmic may need some of notwithoutmyprozac's prozac. lol
Hey BeanTech,

Living in this area has really enhanced my interest in weather, particularly the tropics!. I've noticed quite a few others in here from Palm Beach county too...
lol hedgehog lol ha ha
saint this is a blog not the nhc and my predicitons are in a disscussion with other like minds. i feel for ur loss and the disaster but i to noted where katrina was going days befor she hit as well as others in here. ur anger is to the wrong person. u should be mad at mother nature not me. i am sorry if i love something and make it my life but this is what i do. my predictions are for mine and others enjoyment just as dr. masters are for his and his vbiewers. he nor i nor anyone in ehre will ever claim to be the nhc. u should always follow them and what they say when they issue watches and warnings, but i am just using the same tools they do and interprting it in my own way. sorry if that angers you but it should not anger you at all. as i stated many times, i am just a guy behind a computer
I enjoy coming here and listening to you guys, who (for the most part) know a lot more than I do about this stuff. You should get information from as many sources as possible and then make up your mind. If I believed every NHC advisory I read, I'd spend half my summer with the shutters up. Some people need to chill.
You got it stormydee, BTW it was last years season here in Fla that did that to me.
161. IKE
Per SAINTHURRIFAN and his comment..."if they would go to accuweather pro joe bastardi who hit
katrinas track within 6miles 3 days out.".....

WRONG! I live in the panhandle of Florida and on the Friday morning before Katrina hit, Bastardi said...."It's going to hit somewhere between Pensacola and Cape San Blas"

I'm not saying Bastardi is wrong this time, but that's what he said. He's on the Florida Network radio station here and he has stated that Ophelia will probably cross Florida and head into the gulf.

Time will tell.
SaintHurri.. I am truely sorry for all your losses. My family got hit really hard it Frances and Jeanne last year, my heart truely goes out to you. But Bastardi isn't the hurricane god. He also has said that he thought this season the carolinas were going to get hit the worst, and that hasn't happened (yet)-- So lay off Lefty, and everyone else that puts in there opinion about where the storm is going to go. It's an opinion, and the last I heard , we all have the right to speak freely. I HOPE to heaven that Bastardi is NOT right. I don't think my heart can take it to see you guys hit again so hard.
cosmic this is my life. weather is my life. this is what i do and i do take breaks. this system is evolving and every model run changes things. i am sorry if u think i am on here to much but this is how i hjave been all year long. every season brings me new weather to tack and observe. ur concern shouls be less on me. why are u so concerned anyway. this is my enjoyment and when i do go clean up, fix my kids some food or hwatever i have to do every day i can't wait to get back on. thats my problem not yours. i am glad u r not as obssed as i am. thats ur proragative.
lefty read the column. nhc took 3 days to get off the fla/ panhandle we have been able to prepare for several storms because of bastardis pred. not models or the out to lunch nhc
who takes all the mdel output and splits it down the middle.
for some one who enjoys these events i cant understand why you dont subscribe to pro im curious READ THE COLUMN.
its nice to see the computer models going together, no more kids with crayons or squashed spiders...but the GFDL is a stubborn little model...
bastardi also said the storm would run up the east coast for a couple of days after it had formed
can we stop picking and start predicting? Thank you....
leftyy....fair enough. I'll drop it.
thats great saint but what does that have to do with me. am i on tv or radio stating soemthign will happen? NO!!! i am here for my enjoyment. i am sorry if u feel the nhc took to long but they moved the cone by friday evening. check for your self. even dr.masters commented on this is the katrina blog. they issued hurricane warnings almost 48 hrs befor landfall. ur anger is misplaced and i personally don't find bastardi very good but thats my opinion. ur angry with me for what? did i prevent u from evacing, did i make the storm destroy your property. the answer is no and ur lashing out cause ur in pain and i understand. i will pray u suffer no more
170. IKE
Bastardi isn't always right. I trusted him a lot more before he ranted on Fox News about "predicting Katrina's ultimate landfall"...which was BS. He couldn't get on national/world tv and admit he was off on his earlier prediction. That would shoot his cred.
thank you cosmic
bastardi is too stubborn to be fully reliable as well as the fact he is out to get the national weather service, i put more stock into his winter forecast than hurricanes
ok lefty, im seeing that eastward movement again...am I still imagining it? IT just seems to be pulling away alittle...what do you think?
174. IKE
Bastardi does act like he has it "in" for the NHC.
yeah we should see a major shift in the nhc track at 5pm. their is a clear concensus that she willloop back
the eye or cenetr if u will is strying to wrap up tighter so she is wobbleing around mainly cause she is lopsided if u will. the motion might be a slight jog east but over the past three hours she is still about stationay.
the 12z gfs looks crazy with 2 huge loops and off the coast for 10 days
heres a trick, in the radr loop put ur mouse over the cenetr at the begining of the loop and u will see the wobbles but a general stationary motion
IKE, I agree. Bastardi was all puffed-up like a toad on Fox the other day. Kinda tee'd me off.
its not 2 loops it does one big one and it does it slowly with stops and starts as it is being blocked by the retreating ridge to its north and the building one behind nate. but as i stated earlier the key in the models right now is does she loop back and yes all models except the gfdl does this. where the loop occurs and how big we will figure out in the comming days
rgeer and IKE, I'm with you. Will not watch him again until he gets off the caffeine.
yeah you are right its not 2 loops it just looked like a loop when it recurves off the nc coast late in the forecast
loli watche dhim durring katrina and said this guy is a joke and will not watch him if i don't have to
tried that lefty, but it seemed east...maybe just a wobble...weather has improved here (for now)
its all good, i don't give much credence to her track mush after the loop just yet. to far out in the forcast period. like i said i was more concerned about does she make the loop cause we will have time to dissect where she will go in due time
yeah maybe a lil wobble east but we will watch it stormy
Lefty, what's your take on the strength forecast? I think NHC has it as a weak Cat 1 in 5 days, but I don't trust that at all. Five days over water seems like a long time.
why is her east side having such a hard time? I thought by now she'd be closed up!
can someone send the link the the radar loop you guys have been watching, please?
190. IKE
Per Bastardi on accuweather about Ophelia..."A SEPTEMBER TO REMEMBER IS OCCURING WITH A TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE HIT LIKELY IN FLORIDA AND GULF PROBLEMS TO FOLLOW..."....

See if he's right or wrong! It'll be interesting.
Accu-Weather takes the storm west making landfall just south of Daytona Beach and then into the gulf of mexico.
Link NOAA
Link local for me...
she has a detached cirulation. she is detached from the upper level circulation at about 850mb level so she has bead trying to get her self more arganised and while ur watching it for a few hours it will take some time, i suspect by later tonight u will see that fill in but her cenetr core looks reasly good. i feel if she makes the loop a cat2 or cat3 in 7 days is not out of the question. the shear of the trof will determine most of the forcast strength. when she makes that loop she will be in a less sheared enviroment and over very warm water so and explaosion of styrength could be possible fropm that point up until landfall.


here is a radar link

Link
Thanks for the insight, all. Kid fighting me for computer. Back after 5:00. Seeya.
and in my opinion accuweather is wrong but thats just my opinion based on the data i have infront of me
impressive rain band to her south wrapping east..thats what we like to see.....
yeah she is slowly getting there.
198. tedly
Hey guys - the personal stuff is starting again. Go to some backroom chatlist if you are bored but please let this blog center on weather, weather predictions, informed opinions and the intelligent lead of Dr. Jeff.

Also, it would be helpful if you used your spell checker sometimes.

You don't need to agree with the opinion, but your counter argument should be based on your knowledge not on "You are a jerk."
thanks guys!!!!. now I know what you are talking about when you look at the radar.....hehe

I am in Jax. Cloudy, and breezy, I wouldn't say windy at all. Kind of reminds me of the gray winter days when I lived in NY... only warmer...
The weather channel said that the storm's center is beginning to become exposed. Is that just temporary? I think my area (Ormond Beach, Florida) has a good chance of getting a direct hit from a Cat 1 Hurricane. Does anyone else agree?
AMEN tedly.
(I will spam this myself)
tedly it was all handled and u commign in with that post just adds to the problem. ur doing the same thing, not talking about the weather. lol just pointing it out and i personally for the last 2 days have given tons of info and links. it was 2 people who are now gone so relax
the circulation might be partly exposed but the cenetr is tucked under the convection and u know this cause its a well defined core with good rain bands in that core. but i have mentioned a few times today the system has been trying to orginise and attach the upper levvel circulation with the lw level circulation. they are detached at about 850mb level

i dunno bout the landfall. in my opinion landfall will not be for another 5-7 days so sayign strength and location is really premature
I WILL PRAY FOR YOU I SEE YOU ARE ALL BIASED BY THIS MASTER WHO COULD NOT FIND HIS WAY OUT OF AWET PAPER BAG. AND WE SOUTHERNERS BORN AND RAISED DO NOT LIKE A YANKEE FROM MICIGAN
PUTTING DOWN A PRESIDENT WHO WE ALL WERE TOUCHED BY HIS APEARNCES ON OUR COAST. TO IKE I HOPE YOU AND LEFTY CONTINUE TO MOCK BASTARDI THAT SHOWS A CERTAIN DEGREE OF LACK OF MATURITY.
BUT IKE GOD FOORBID THE REAL DOESNT KNOW YOU HAVE HIS NAME BASTARDI WENT ON LINE FRI AND CHANGED HIS PRED SAID HE OUGHT TO KNOW BETTER THAN FOLLOW THE CRAPPY GFS MODEL AN GUESS WHAT NHC CHANGED THIER PREDICT LATER THAT EVENING. USUALLY PEOPLE WHO
RIDICULE SOMEBODY WHO KNOWS WHAT THIER TALKING ABOUT IS JUST OUT OF JEALOUSY OR IGNORANCE. SO FOLLOW THE NHC OR ROLL DICE ABOUT THE SAME RESULT. AND TO QUEEN YES THIS IS IN CAPS CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHT FREEDOM OF SPEECH.
Hi all!
Evan, heard the same thing on TWC, and I guess recon kind of confirms it?
saint as i stated ur anger is missplaced and my crticism of bastardi is my opinion of him. u have yet to explain why u are so mad at us. did we cause u ur loss, did we go on tv and say don't evac. i am sorry ur so angry but as i said its missplaced anger. the nhc moved thier cone friday evening. they posted hurricane warnigns sat afternoon. they did their job and i am sorry ur so angry
saint, a number of us are from diff places, have been thru diff experiences... please, calm down.
we all are in (for the most part) for the same reasons.
If you need to vent, go to the Katrina Blog, that is what it is there for.
I am sorry you are suffering thru a hellish experience. We had it 13 years ago. At some point it will start to get better...
the cenetr is not exposed. it is surrounded by convective rainbands. now part of the cirulation is exposted to the south and east. this will fill in in the next 12 hrs or so. the cenetr or core of the storm is well defined now and shows the storm continues to orginise and stregthen
wow Sainthurri. YOu sure sound bitter. It sounds like you shouldn't be ridiculing anyone either. ANd by the way I am a full blooded YANKEE transplanted to the south, and I and a true supporter of Bush too--so watch it with the comments! You don't have to be southern to love our president.

Do you really want to talk about what's going on in the tropics, or blame the forcasters about your misfortune?

So tedly, whats your weather opinion?
Just jumping in real quick while the babies are asleep... what's the abridged version of where Ophelia is going? i.e. Is she going to cross over the FL peninsula and into the Gulf? (The latest GDFL model showed her moving inland over the panhandle/S GA area.)

Thanks everyone!!!
212. tedly
Accuweather has Ophilia going into the Gulf.
modelconcensus is now for the system to move ne and lopp back towards th us east coast somewhere from va to cenetral florida. the gfdl has shifted 1000 miles since its last run and has no handle on the system or the trof erroding the ridge to the north. i believe at 5pm u will see the new nhc adv will have the track making a loop
TWC just said it is getting some sheer from the east, that is why the CDO is away from the rotation...
As for the Southern thing... I was born north of the Mason-Dixon Line, but have lived half my life (so far) South of the Mason-Dixon Line, which probably means absolutely nothing, but I just threw that in since the topic of Southerners-Yankees came up... *G*

Thanks for the info on Ophelia! :-)
there is some eatern shear in the southern part of the storm but the cenetr is not being sheared, which si why the pressure has been dropping all day. i always take twc with a grain of salt.
dang, I'm Puerto Rican, where do I fit in the picture??? ::G::
cgableshurrycanegal -- You almost made me choke on my coffee!!! *LOL*
77, please stop hitting you enter key...
u have to look at why the other models show a loop and the gfdl does not. not the error distance. the gfdl does not recognise the trof that will kick this sytem ne in a couple days. thats the problem with the gfdl right now. last night it didn't recognise the building ridge in the gulf either so its lost right now on this system. the loop will be casue by the ridge over the us sinking south and another ridge building in behind nate. ophelia will follow nate till the buildin ridge kicks her sw and back to the nw as the sinking rdige of the us retreats, thats the basis for why the models sya what they do and why the gfdl is so lost. it never frcognises the trof so that ridge will not errode and sink south. we can already see the ridge comming in water vapor and in surface obs. so we know the gfdl is pretty off right now
222. IKE
To SAINTHURRIFAN.......Jealousy...ignorance??? Of Bastardi? Mocking him?

Just stating what he said. He said you might as well get ready for it...in the Florida panhandle.

I hope he's wrong about Ophelia's path. I hope it goes out to sea. It's interesting to follow storms. I still listen to what he says.
and the ridge in the gulf is why she can't go west right now . so she is stuck in no mans land waiting for something to move her. that will be the trof
LOL>>>cgable...I just got back on and started laughing you made my day..its been crazy here at work...
Listen guys accuweather needs viewers..they need people to stay tuned..so does TWC...its there business, you will find better info here or on the net then on TV...I know, I was in the media at one time forecasting..its part of the business.
new vortex is out



398
URNT12 KNHC 071930
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 07/1856Z
B. 28 DEG 50 MIN N
79 DEG 17 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1416 M
D. 50 KTS
E. 315 DEG 35 NM
F. 038 DEG 42 KT
G. 297 DEG 16 NM
H. 996 MB
I. 21 C/ 1543 M
J. 22 C/ 1538 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. POORLY DEFINED
M. NA
N. 12345/8
0. 1/ 1 NM
P. NOAA2 0316A OPHELIA OB 20
MAX FLT LVL WIND 50 KT SE QUAD AT 1740Z



pressure down aniother mb to 996mb and the winds are now 50kts. she is getting stronger but still a detached circulation
alsoslight movement to the nne has been noted by the recon. maybe a wobble
so, come tomorrow morn when I get back to work, will Ophelia still be in the same stubborn spot? She just sits there and spins and spins...my latest radar shows no movement...water vapor does her no justice, nor does the i.r. satellite...radar is the only impressing looking thing right now...
wg03, they need to keep it hyped so that the viewers will keep tuning in, that's where the adv'ing $$$ come in.
It's a business. Yes, they are also going to do their best as well, but it is a business.
NHC, Wunderground and those who aren't in it to make $$$ are going to be more objective, I would hope
stormy pretty much. she is stuck in an area where she can't go anywhere. she needs something to push her. thats where the trof comes in. in 2 days or so that trof will push her ne and than she will begin her loop. till than she will sit there spin and woble as she drifts
sdee, I think we can count on it for several days...
I know this is the best place to get up-to-the-minute reports.
yea and there was a ridge that was going to re-curve Katrina back in to the west coast of central florida...we all see how that went....I wouldn't hang my hat on that trof lefty....
im gonna go to the beach and start blowing east...anyone wanna help?
Look at the water vapor imagry..I don't think Ophelia will get any further North than Southern SC at best...Hopefull it will just go east out to sea....let's hope...
sdee, think we have enough hot air here to make a diff???
LOL!!!
I may be blue tomorrow when I get to work, but hopefully my blowing will move her out to sea...lol
What's preventing this from becoming a hurricane by the time I wake up tomorrow morning?

And out of curiosity, does the fact that a storm becomes stronger and more organized effect the path it may travel? Is storm strength/organization another variable?
If Opheila gets strong enough she will make her own path, models and Jim Cantore be damned
be back later we'll see what 5pm brings us
pirate tha was an entirely differen situation as u was dealing with a building ridge not a trof. remebr the trof that turned katrina n and tha ne, same situation. u can't look at 2 seperate atmosperic apters the same way. that trof will be what moves her that is pretty much a given based on the models, and with katrina u did not have the model concensus u have now. the gfdl and ukmet bothe showed a sw jog with katrina and the gfdl had been handleing the system quite well. u have all major models now except the gfdl showing the ne turn and the gfdl has not handled this system well at all. it dissipated it 2 days ago. than it slammed it head long into a building ridge all day yesterday and now it is ignoring the trof. those are the basis for my prediction and in 40 mins u will see the same thing being said by the nhc
....coming out of lurkdom here... I, for one, am extremely grateful for all the comments that we get from lefty and 79 and all of the other regulars on this board. Their passion for the weather is evident, and I'm ecstatic that they have the dedication, and take the time, to help a person like me make an informed decision about something that can affect my life. I never expect anyone to be 100% correct, and will look at everyone's opinion from all sources. I'm just thankful that there is something like this board for those of us out here who truly appreciate their input. Please keep doing what you're doing lefty and friends. You help me alot. And I thank you.
pirate after she makes her lopp and makes landfall itwill be 7-9 days from now. you can't see that far out in a wv loop. second nothing is oreventing her form getting close to cat1 strength and i think ti will happen laster on tonight or tomm.

now is some cases a major hurricane will go on its own path if already in motion. this is a stalled weak system. and even if she was a major hurricane that trof will push her towards the weakness left by nate. by time she reaches that weakness it will have filled in which is why u have a loop
well, I gotta go...I can assume that if I start getting rain again, she is growing or moving towards the coast more...I'll have to watch that unreliable tv...darnit...but it will work till morning...just hope she doesn't take a due west track and smack me while Im sleeping...falling roof on my head will hurt while sleeping...lol
Well said armacjm. I appreciate everyone's knowledge also. I find storm tracking facinating..mostly because there is no 100% way of knowing anything. These storms seems to take on a life of there own.
slright stormy. catch u tomm. watch out for those falling roofs. sleep with a pillow on ur head lol
What are the chances of this thing doing a Jeanne and looping back towards FL and hitting the treasure coast? Anyone offering ideas on this scenario?
Just saying you cant predict what mother nature is going to do....no one will be "sure" for a few days yet unless the storm decides sooner... with a storm like this with all the conditions affecting it you can pretty much throw all models out the window for that matter... maybe the gfdl is figuring in something the others aren't..anything is possible...time will tell...but I still don't think it will get any further north than southern SC...just my opinion...
They fascinate me too, but I have little education in this field. And if something is going to schmuck me, I want to know everything about it that I can! LOL That's why I love getting all the opinions from this board. Blended together I get a pretty good feel for what's about to annihilate me....
thanks lefty, goodnight
I predict that the weather channel with win an emmy for best daytime drama
i have said anywhere from cntral florida to va will be under the gun. we need to watch where she makes that loop.

pirate i am not sitting here saying where she will hit. now i respect ur opinion but you can look at the data and conclude what she will do to some extent. thats what the nhc does. now if u look at the actuall gfdl model you will see what it does to the ridge. and how it never recognises the trof, or errode the ridge. so those things alone let you know the gfdl is out to lunch. thats why we have more than one model and i stated the models were telling me she will loop but not where or when. thats the diff between what i am doing and what u think i am doing. we use these models to forcast the storm and while they have their own mind we can predict what they will do in general. thats why we have 3 and 5 day forcasts, but the cone is there because of the uncertainty of weather.
I also agree with armacjm....I just happened across this blog a week or so prior to Katrina. I have always had an interest in weather. My father was a meterologist, worked for the National Weather Service at KSC for years, ended up in the Keys. This site has been very eduational for me, especially living on the east coast of Central Florida...I am constantly monitoring the weather. I will continue to do so and may occasionally ask a question or two. I will have a watchful eye out for this storm, and appreciate the knowledge and info provided by the others!
and alot of people mention charley but charley struck within the cone. if ur ever in the cone or near be weary is what i say but in general pirate we can see what will steer this thing and what she might do but if we could predict dates and times a locations we would be collecting that lotery check right now
wow some deep banding now tryign to wrap around cnter. quite impressive i must say though she still as awhile to go
leftyy, when that ridge builds back in, how far to the west and south do you think it will build?
257. IKE
New advisory out...nearly stationary and expected to remain so for the next few days. Guess everyone can take a break for the rest of the week.
boy you sure are sensitive lefty...not saying you are wrong just pointing out that gfdl may not be wrong or for that matter Accuweather's opinion could be right....don't be so thick headed...

Yea wannabe, cantore will get emmy for lead actor in a dramatic role....LOL
dunno weather dude. thats 5-7 days out. todfay i was mainly concerned with will she make that loop.
Another great advisory out....Link..I like it when the experts are confused.
if she just sits and spins out there, will much will she strengthen? any guesses?
And forecast track...Link...nothing new here.
Been lurking awhile. I found the wind shear forcast interesting 24 hrs out. Looks like Opheilia will feel 20-30 knots in 24 hrs. Comments?
based on data and storm history the gfdl has no handle on the system. wasn't getting angry was just explaining what i see in the data.
lefty....you said central florida. Many people are saying that us even in Miami need to monitor this close and it could come all the way back down here.....any thoughts?
Still waiting to figure out where the loop takes place?
Once the trof passes shear will lighten.
its the gfdl keeping them frommaking a move. if we see anither shift in the next gfdl run we should see a shift in the next advisory, though the track now shows the loop again when earlier it did not
its possible it could hit south florida but thats pretty unlikley though u will feel the storm as we are talking about a storm not a point. i can't pinpoint a landfall 7-10 days out u guys. so don't aske me to.
271. IKE
There's no way anyone can tell where this storm is going and the fact that it's not moving much, no sense watching clouds spin for the rest of the week. Something to check back on, but to be glued to a non-moving storm?
the shear will not be 20-30kts. shear like that would rip the system apart and they shoe a gradual increase in strength thru the shear so more like 10-15 kts is likley if even that high
She looks a little beat up?
ike the stoprm is always changing. ur motives are diff than some of us. i watch them no mater where they are headed or what, plus we have radr to veiw a system internally while she orginises. to me thats must see tv
she looks quite good to me in radar stormj.
Accuweather only gives two scenarios:
1. She is pushed back over central Florida in to the gulf
2. She is taken out to sea.
They don't even mention the possibility of a re-curving system.
They must be looking at different models.
You are all looking in the wrong region. Campeche is where the next big one is gonna form.
there is nothing in campoeche. that are will be moving on land in 24-36 hrs.
What about a WNW or NW motion after the loop? likely unlikely?
I was looking at Sat. Any movement? I am at work and have not been following the past 4 hrs.
stormj, try something for me. 7-10 days away. no one knows which is why i ahve said more than once any place from central florida to va needs to watch this ssytem. depending on the loop she could impact land whilele moving sw,w,wnw,nw,or even n. we will know more once she start to make her loop 3-5 days from now
no movement she is not moving. she is statioinary where she will be for the next 3-5 days till the trof kicks her ne
283. MJH
True, this sytem may distract us from the next big one. Accuweather is going out on a limb with putting it over Mobile Alabama by Moneday. I don't see any strong enough steering to put it there. It may be in the same spot it is now by Moneday. How accurate was accuweather with Katrina?
Leftty and the rest please check this out.
I noticed somthing about the GFDL and I wrote a blog entry about it.
cgableshurrycanegal

I'm a redneck rebel and my sister-in-law is Puerto Rican, and like I told her when she married my little brother (does it boggle any other big sisters minds that thier little brothers ever actually got a date) I finally got the litle sister I wanted, you can fit right in with us.
Does anyone have a link that shows all current computer models?


TIA
my blog has been updated
Lefty,

This link appears to show 20+ wind shear depending on where the strom actually tracks. Am I reading this wrong?Link
creek thats good and all but the gfdl is storm specific so that has no basis for anything. i exoplained this to someone days ago. the gfdl is out to lunch and a new run will be out soon. i expect she will have another shift ne as she did earlier today.


here is a link to the modles

Link
Intresting Chub, did you check that out lefty. IT goes against what you were saying about the GFDL being storm specific in this situation.
Just wait - Campeche is where the actio will be.
thas is a current map not a forcast map of shear as shear will change and move like all weather does. it won't move anywehre for 5 days so find a shear forcast map and check it out
jerryg,

Try this link.Link
Leftyy, that is what I am seeing as well
I love that one right now it looks like a train wreck....Link...lol...
lefty,

This was today at 1200 plus 24 hours.
no stormj. i told you it always does something different when a storm is not set to it. themodel u needs ot watch is the one set to it. its storm specific and not all data fopr a whole area is enetred thats why u get that eratic movement of ophelia in the corner. i explained this laready


here is a shear forcast map. not a good one but a decent one. shows no shear above 15kts in the next few days. 20-30 kts would rip the system apart

Link
based on that shear forcast map leftyy, she should have no problem increasing in strength.
Why is it when stormchaser writes I feel like I am looking at poetry..lol..
he increased to 50 miles hour
lol u can't use a model from yesterday to show shear in the future. doesn't work like that.


77, i have been thru why the gfdl has been discounted 100 times and i am not doing it again. the nhc, myslef and dr. masters have dicounted it for the many erros it has had in the last 72 hrs. u need to understand that run to run concistency is key to a model being consiodered a likely track.

u can't click on opne storm and try to watch another in a storm specific model.

also ofcourse the opther storms affect each other. nate will leave the weakness for ophelia to move into. it sht ebuilding ridge that will loop her back. u guys are killing me on this. if u want to belive the gfdl and not the other 10 models go ahead. i learned along time ago don't put ur money on one model no matter how well it has done this year. every model has a storm it will not handle correctly. this time its the gfdl. i belive some of you are wishcasting. if u look at the data u would have no choice but to discount the gfdl as well. and this storm may hit exactly where the gfdl says after she makwes her loop but the gfdl is still wrong
yeah weatherdud, thats why the show a increaee in strength but nothign rapid. some people hear shear and they think about what mria has looked like for 2 days now. thats 15-20kt shear maybe higher. so relax the shear will be brief and it will not be to bad


after reading NHC I sense great frustration in the discussion...
I think the only negative that she may have is sitting and spinning in place for such a long time. Don't you think she will bring to much cold water to the surface?
Leftty
I have to argue with ya here, I know that the GFDL is storm specific. The thing is, with that they have to "put in" the other "major features" that are in the atmosphere. I have concured with pretty much everything you said but the Nate model correctly shows the Maria movement, and the Maria correctly shows the Nate movement.
If one storm was in the Gulf and the other off the coast of Africa, it would have no validity. The thing is these are all "right next to each other" These other GFDL models have to have some validity IMO being this close together.
Otherwise all of them are invalid for not accuratley showing the other MAJOR PLAYERS in the atmosphere correctly.
wd65, I wonder the same, except that there is the Gulf Stream
I think it is for Ophelia 03.lol-poetry-Shakespere.
that is true....i had forgotten that..been a long day
creek, i stated 2 days ago sometimes it is off soem tiems its not. if u look at what they are looking at ophelia makes a major shift when lloking at the nate vs the ophelia link. thats what i am refering to. ophelia has little impact on what nate does as nates movments are based on a building ridge to his south and the weakness left by maria so they didn't enter all the info for ophelia when they did the run. its obviuse and i was just pointing that out. but yes in some situations u will have to have 2 systems fully enetred like u do with maria and nate but u should still not use the nate link to justify a maria movement or likewise. that was my point
Anyone else watching Campeche?
I am discounting the storm specific model for Ophelia, I am saying the Nate and Maria models are and have been showing a more drawn out (stalled) track instead of a quick movement to the west like the storm specific has been consistently showing.
I agree 100% that this storm is going to move east somewhat before it moves east. I am showing that these two other GFDL models are starting to show a consensus with this, and the storm specific model hopefully won't be to far behind, so we can get a better picture of what this is really going to do.
SJ, haikus next??? LOL
well there forcast would be easier if the storm wasn't going to satll for so long and the gfdl did not continue to want to move her nw. thats why we see the forcast track we do with a hint at a loop. they can afford to vague casue the system will not impact any land fo some time but they issued the warnings to cover themselve. they want to call for a loop klike i am saying but the gfdl is keeping them from doing that. they need all the mjormodels to be in a general area and the gfdl is so fara way they can't do that so they put their track in the middle but more towards the other major models than the gfdl.
keep in mind that Bermuda has to watch Nate.
Anyone on this list in Bermuda? I know we have Bahamas...
ok. i'm out for the night. I am sure that Ophelia will still be in the same general area when I get up a 5 tomorrow morning. Talk later
BTW, let's thank the hurricane gods that this stall is over open waters and noone is taking all this weather on the chin... hmmm???
weather wnnabe, the are in the sw gulf would have to from quickly and since there is no ciruclation at the surface and only a hint at a surface pressure drop with no formed surface low it would take alot of time for it to form. it will be over land in 48 hrs. not enough time to form. trust me its nothing to concern urself over.
---somewhat before it moves back west.----edit
I am not saying use it for guidence, I am showing that it has to have some validity to it. The non-specific ones, when these storms are situated so close together. To discount a non-specific model that is showing a track similar to that of the consensus and has been for 2 model runs is absurd, to say that it isn't picking something correct up.
---somewhat before it moves back west.----edit
I am not saying use it for guidence, I am showing that it has to have some validity to it. The non-specific ones, when these storms are situated so close together. To discount a non-specific model that is showing a track similar to that of the consensus and has been for 2 model runs is absurd, to say that it isn't picking something correct up.
Doesn't it seem like the whole convection area is getting really large. Isn't that what Katrina did right before see wrapped it all around her center and because the huge storm that she was.
new thread, ya'll.
business thing to do, catch you all later!
creek thats all fine and dandy but the forcasters at the nhc and any one who trys to frocast will use that as a basis. i am not saying its not showing something what i am saying is u can not use it. thats why u have a storm specific model for it. thats what i am saying.
allright so we can agree to at least look at it, and if it is in line or similar with the consensus it is valid?
Checking in. I see that nothing has changed. As expected. Watch this storm spin like a top for at least 3 more days, possibly 5...or more. I'll check in again in a few hours. Somebody e-mail me if Ophelia stops meandering and starts drifting aimlessly.
Lefty,

That map is in Meters per second m/s. Yellow equats to about 15 m/s this equals 29 Knots or 33 MPH.
hey everybody I see she will be here for a while nothing to move her...
To Iceland! Looks like Maria was following the gulf stream north and east. Didn't another storm this season follow the same path. Of course, the gulf stream is a good source of warm water.
lefty
leter n shows the cenetr recorde thur the means 134/1 the last 1 states that the cenetr is intact thru 1500ft. from 1500 ft to the surface the cenetr is detached from the rest of the storm. that means that most of the cirulaion in the upper levels above 1500ft is at with the convection. this is a sign of a storm reorginising. that cenetr 1500ft to the surface will rotate under the other cenetrs or reform. this is why the radar presentation is so poor right now. i will give you a link that describes how to read the message
Aquak...check mail
Hi I am back from a long day of work!
I believe Scalar energy plays a big part in this Plus the name itself Ophelia this is a strange one plus u can feel it i live here for 30yrs
I have been looking at satellite loops. It looks like there is some kind of CCW rotation going on just north of Puerto Rico. I noticed the same feature yesterday, but farther east. There are not a lot of clouds associated with this right now.Would anyone hazard a guess as to what this is? Is it of any particular interest?