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Ophelia weakening; Hilary an impressive Cat 4

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:09 PM GMT on September 23, 2011

Tropical Storm Ophelia is weaker today, thanks to dry air and high wind shear. Satellite imagery shows that Ophelia has almost no heavy thunderstorms near its low level circulation center, which is entirely exposed to view. Most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms are in a band several hundred miles to the east and south, with just a few puffs of thunderstorms occasionally popping up near the center. An analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMMS group shows a high 20 - 25 knots of wind shear due to strong upper-level southwesterly winds. Water vapor satellite images show the center of Ophelia is entirely within a large area of very dry air. We don't have any current buoy, ship, or hurricane hunter observations of Ophelia; the Hurricane Hunters will be making their first flight into Ophelia this afternoon near 2 pm EDT.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Ophelia showing the low-level center exposed to view, with all the storm's heavy thunderstorms in a band several hundred miles to the east and south. This is not a healthy-looking tropical storm.

Forecast for Ophelia
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that Ophelia will experience high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots over the next five days, and will move into a region with drier air. I believe that the combination of shear and dry air will probably dissipate Ophelia on Saturday or Sunday, as predicted by the ECMWF, GFS, and NOGAPS models. Ophelia will bring a few heavy rain squalls to the Lesser Antilles on Saturday and Sunday. At longer ranges, even if Ophelia dissipates this weekend, it could encounter a lower-shear environment south of Bermuda early next week and regenerate. Ophelia (or its remnants) may may pass close to Bermuda as early as Wednesday. Ophelia may eventually be a threat to Canada, but it is too early to know.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Hilary at Category 4 strength, with 145 mph winds. Quite a contrast from Ophelia!

Hurricane Hilary hits Category 4 strength
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary has intensified into an impressive Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds, and has brought 2 - 3 inches of rain to portions of the Mexican coast west of Acapulco. Hilary is headed west, away from Mexico, and the storm's rains should not cause major flooding problems for Mexico. However, a trough of low pressure expected to move over the Western U.S. early next week may be strong enough to turn Hilary to the north, and both the GFS and ECMWF models predict Hillary could hit Mexico's Baja Peninsula on Thursday. If this scenario does occur, Hilary would likely be much weaker, due to the colder waters it would have to traverse to get to Baja. It is possible that moisture from Hilary could work its way northwards into Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas late next week, bringing some drought relief. Hilary is the fourth Category 4 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific this year, and the second strongest, behind Hurricane Dora, which had 155 mph winds. The GOES-West satellite is in super rapid scan mode today for Hilary, and you can view satellite loops with images taken every minute from the NOAA/CIRA website.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In the far eastern Atlantic, a tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa Thursday is predicted by the GFS model to develop into a tropical depression early next week. The disturbance is currently moving west, but steering currents favor a west-northwest to northwest track early next week. NHC gave the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook.

Japan is cleaning up from Typhoon Roke, which made landfall near Japan’s Hamamatsu City in Shizuoka Prefecture at 2:00 pm local time (05:00 UTC) on September 21. Maximum sustained winds at landfall were 180 km/h [112.5 mph], making Roke a strong Category 2 storm. AIR-Worldwide is estimating that insured damages from Roke were $150 - $600 million, mostly from wind damage. The typhoon killed 12 and left 5 people missing in Japan.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Getting closer. 30 knots, 1008mb:

AL, 90, 2011092400, , BEST, 0, 100N, 233W, 30, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

Yes, most likely red at 11:00, TD tomorrow morning...
Anyone have a steering map for the blob off the east coast of Florida? I don't see an invest for it yet. Looks interesting though!
Since the LGEM is good at intensity forecasts, or..at least better than most, I will choose to follow it. We may see 90L reach Category 2 hurricane strength, as the model indicates. Interestingly enough, the LGEM is on the higher end of the intensity forecasts, with most peaking as a moderate/strong Cat. 1....Not much of a difference, I know :P

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
yeah, straight for the Philippines. They better prepare

This is going to be a very interesting one to track.

Hopefully the people of the Philippines are informed of the incoming threat and are preparing to take the necessary precautions to save life and property.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Since the LGEM is good at intensity forecasts, or..at least better than most, I will choose to follow it. We may see 90L reach Category 2 hurricane strength, as the model indicates. Interestingly enough, the LGEM is on the higher end of the intensity forecasts, with most peaking as a moderate/strong Cat. 1....Not much of a difference, I know :P

The fact that the GFS nor the ECMWF develop it is noteworthy.

Although I do believe that 90L will have no problems organizing into Phillipe, I have my doubts that it will intensify into a hurricane.
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Anyone have a steering map for the blob off the east coast of Florida? I don't see an invest for it yet. Looks interesting though!


Quoting PensacolaDoug:


I wus jus funnin'!
lol.. I know but.. but it seems to give certain folks tingly feelings and well you know
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The fact that the GFS nor the ECMWF develop it is noteworthy.

Although I do believe that 90L will have no problems organizing into Phillipe, I have my doubts that it will intensify into a hurricane.


Why?

Share with us your doubts.
511. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The fact that the GFS nor the ECMWF develop it is noteworthy.

Although I do believe that 90L will have no problems organizing into Phillipe, I have my doubts that it will intensify into a hurricane.


Those two have been horrible as of late.
They missed Maria and now Ophelia. Wouldnt surprise me if 90L became a hurricane even without the support of those two.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
It has been two thousand one hundred and sixty days since a hurricane has made landfall in Florida.
AAAAARRRRRGGGHHHH!
That's like saying in the 7th inning that a pitcher has a no-hitter going.
Take back that jinx asap please..
Quoting Neapolitan:
Getting closer. 30 knots, 1008mb:

AL, 90, 2011092400, , BEST, 0, 100N, 233W, 30, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

Yes, red at 11:00...

really?!
there is plenty of dry air out there

Nothing too major yet...but we're getting there. First time that both TAFB and SAB give 90L a T-number...rather than the "too weak" rating.

AL, 90, 201109232345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 990N, 2300W, , 3, 25, 2, , 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, TAFB, HSM, I, 5, 1010 /////, , , MET9, CSC, T,

AL, 90, 201109232345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1030N, 2340W, , 3, 25, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, SAB, AS, I, 5, 1010 /////, , , MET9, LLCC, T, DT=1.0 BO CBND MET=1.0 PT=1.0 FTBO DT

Code red very likely tonight.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
This is going to be a very interesting one to track.

Hopefully the people of the Philippines are informed of the incoming threat and are preparing to take the necessary precautions to save life and property.

Some are mentioning it, although I am the news will become much more extensive as the system nears the area and strengthens.
Quoting Chicklit:

really?!
yet there is plenty of dry air out there


Not to affect the system...90L is embedded within a very moist moisture envelope, so dry air shouldn't be a problem as it has for other storms. Wind shear should be below 15 knots for the next 120 hours as well.
465 Stormchaser2007 "It has been two thousand one hundred and sixty days since a hurricane has made landfall in Florida."

Complaints, complaints, complaints... You try steering a hurricane.
Where'd ya think the phrase "As hard as herding Cat.s" came from???
Random:

Everybody go look at the google page.
519. JLPR2


Impressively wind-shear dropped a bit.


Thrilling LOL
Quoting BDADUDE:
Yep. The Katia track is the trend this year!!




NO NO NO NO! it hit land
523. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Random:

Everybody go look at the google page.


Ha! XD
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Random:

Everybody go look at the google page.

lol
Quoting Tazmanian:




NO NO NO NO! it hit land
Yeah. Guess the folks in Newfoundland didn't exist.
Oh God. That's where Katrina formed!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


Blame it on AGW.
"It's an ill wind that blows nobody some good."
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Random:

Everybody go look at the google page.
Is that the blog admin? ;)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Why?

Share with us your doubts.
My doubts lie in the fact that our most reliable global models don't develop 90L. Although as JLPR2 indicated, they haven't been doing a very good job as of late, it is an encouraging sign to have them on board with the idea of development.

The CMC and the NOGAPS, although they do develop it into a tropical cyclone, don't have it intensifying more than a weak tropical storm.

A lot will be dependent on where the system makes a poleward turn. A very amplified mid to upper-level longwave will be advecting eastward over the eastern Atlantic in the 4 to 5 day time frame. If the system doesn't manage to move further west than 40˚W it'll be diving face first into the subtropical jetstream as the longwave induces a weakness in the subtropical ridge and forces the cyclone northward/northeastward.

18z GFS, 120 hours:


Ophelia Newfoundland bound?
Have you seen this story written by Ken Kaye about teeny drone planes that they're going to start flying into cyclones?
Link
Jim Henson's 75th Birthday!
Quoting Tazmanian:




NO NO NO NO! it hit land
Hey Taz. No disrespect but I never said it didnt hit land, just that the storms are trending between the coast of America and the coast of Bermuda. The current storm is following a similiar track.
Quoting Chicklit:

really?!
there is plenty of dry air out there


No there is in front of Ophelia
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
This is going to be a very interesting one to track.

Hopefully the people of the Philippines are informed of the incoming threat and are preparing to take the necessary precautions to save life and property.
Which storm are you talking about?
536. SLU
23/2345 UTC 10.3N 23.4W T1.0/1.0 90L -- Atlantic
537. SLU
23/2345 UTC 15.7N 54.0W T2.0/2.0 OPHELIA -- Atlantic
Quoting mossyhead:
Which storm are you talking about?
Tropical Storm Twenty in the Western Pacific (post 492).
Quoting Chicklit:


Thrilling LOL

Here in Charleston... Interesting, is the word I would use. Sadly, we need more rain. Sadder still, destruction is never waned.
Quoting mossyhead:
Which storm are you talking about?
20W in the WPAC.

Still a TD according to the JMA (official RSMC).
Quoting Vlad959810:

No there is in front of Ophelia

Yeah, there is dry air in front of Ophelia.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
It has been two thousand one hundred and sixty days since a hurricane has made landfall in Florida.


if upper level pattern continues, florida will be a magnet for October storms when they start developing in the western caribbean.
Last pic of this amazing storm.

Quoting WxLogic:




Thanks for the map!


Good Evening, Looks like some additional activity since I check in the afternoon and we have something heading towards the Phillipines? Wow!
I hate to say it but Game On!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Random:

Everybody go look at the google page.


And play with the buttons!
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Last pic of this amazing storm.

Yep, mean sea level pressure (MSLP) down to 931.7 mb. as of the latest fix. Link
Hilary may be attempting to intensify a little more tonight. Infrared satellite images reveal a sliver of -80˚C cloud tops taking shape in the northern eyewall. Additionally, the eye can be noted contracting over the past few hours if you look at a longer satellite loop. Interestingly enough, it doesn't appear like an eyewall replacement cycle will take shape for another 18-24 hours, at least.

Quoting MoltenIce:
20W in the WPAC.

Still a TD according to the JMA (official RSMC).
Thanks.
Quoting Chicklit:
Linkloop
GOMWV

LOL, dust storm in the Gulf!
Quoting JamesSA:

LOL, dust storm in the Gulf!


We have been getting some rain here in Central Florida.
Hilary making a run at Cat 5!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You're getting smarter by the day TX13.
If you can manage to stay unaware of it, then you'll get smarter yet.
night all.
Quoting FrankZapper:
Hilary making a run at Cat 5!


Not really, its probably come close to its peak intensity, give 5 mph or so.
558. DDR
Had 2.4 inches this morning in Trinidad in about 1/2 hour with some localised flooding
Quoting Tazmanian:




NO NO NO NO! it hit land

Storms that follow Katia tracks become extra-tropical storms and are no longer tracked by the nhc from there. Even though tropical storm force winds were recorded in the UK, no tropical storm warnings were issued.

In my opinion, once storms become extra-tropical and stop being tracked by the NHC, the should not count as named storms and the damage total should not be evaluated under such because low pressures can last a long time before dissipating.

Long story short, if NHC stops tracking the storm then the name should be dropped right there.
Quoting Chicklit:


Thrilling LOL


Oh dear--all of the colors are out of the box!
Quoting RussianWinter:

Storms that follow Katia tracks become extra-tropical storms and are no longer tracked by the nhc from there. Even though tropical storm force winds were recorded in the UK, no tropical storm warnings were issued.

In my opinion, once storms become extra-tropical and stop being tracked by the NHC, the should not count as named storms and the damage total should not be evaluated under such because low pressures can last a long time before dissipating.

Long story short, if NHC stops tracking the storm then the name should be dropped right there.




hmmm no Katia was tropical when it hit newfounland be for it turn extra-tropical and hit the UK
Quoting Landfall2004:


Oh dear--all of the colors are out of the box!


Except red. ;)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Except red. ;)


Na ahhh--they used the red for Ophelia!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Not really, its probably come close to its peak intensity, give 5 mph or so.


That cat 5 possibility isn't out of the woods yet, if she isn't a cat 5, she's VERY close.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL STORM NESAT (T1117)
9:00 AM JST September 24 2011
=================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Nesat (1000 hPa) located at 14.0N 136.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 8 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
70 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 14.5N 133.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 15.2N 129.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 16.4N 125.1E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
Quoting tropicfreak:


That cat 5 possibility isn't out of the woods yet, if she isn't a cat 5, she's VERY close.


She's 145 mph.

Release
Date Firefox Beta Aurora
27-Sep-11 7 8 9
8-Nov-11 8 9 10
20-Dec-11 9 10 11
31-Jan-12 10 11 12
13-Mar-12 11 12 13
24-Apr-12 12 13 14
5-Jun-12 13 14 15
17-Jul-12 14 15 16
28-Aug-12 15 16 17
9-Oct-12 16 17 18
20-Nov-12 17 18 19
1-Jan-13 18 19 20
12-Feb-13 19 20 21
26-Mar-13 20 21 22
7-May-13 21 22 23
18-Jun-13 22 23 24
30-Jul-13 23 24 25
10-Sep-13 24 25 26
22-Oct-13 25 26 27
this is starting too really look good i think will see 91L soon

Quoting Tazmanian:

Release
Date Firefox Beta Aurora
27-Sep-11 7 8 9
8-Nov-11 8 9 10
20-Dec-11 9 10 11
31-Jan-12 10 11 12
13-Mar-12 11 12 13
24-Apr-12 12 13 14
5-Jun-12 13 14 15
17-Jul-12 14 15 16
28-Aug-12 15 16 17
9-Oct-12 16 17 18
20-Nov-12 17 18 19
1-Jan-13 18 19 20
12-Feb-13 19 20 21
26-Mar-13 20 21 22
7-May-13 21 22 23
18-Jun-13 22 23 24
30-Jul-13 23 24 25
10-Sep-13 24 25 26
22-Oct-13 25 26 27
What river was that avatar picture taken in Taz?
Quoting FrankZapper:
What river as that avatar picture taken Taz?



Knights Ferry CA
Quoting mrjr101:


if upper level pattern continues, florida will be a magnet for October storms when they start developing in the western caribbean.


I agree with you on the path but upper level conditions have been poor all summer. I think FL could see a storm in October but right now I don't see it being a hurricane.
As of 9 pm New York City Central Park has had 58.34" of rain this year, making it the 9th wettest year on record.

Here is the list of wettest years in New York City.

I think this year will end up as the second wettest year on record there. 1983 is a real outlier with 80.56". That might have been a 500 or 1,000 year event. Beating 1983 is still doable, but it will be tough. I think 2011 has a good chance of being the first year that New York City has a rainfall total in the 70s.
Quoting Tazmanian:

Release
Date Firefox Beta Aurora
27-Sep-11 7 8 9
8-Nov-11 8 9 10
20-Dec-11 9 10 11
31-Jan-12 10 11 12
13-Mar-12 11 12 13
24-Apr-12 12 13 14
5-Jun-12 13 14 15
17-Jul-12 14 15 16
28-Aug-12 15 16 17
9-Oct-12 16 17 18
20-Nov-12 17 18 19
1-Jan-13 18 19 20
12-Feb-13 19 20 21
26-Mar-13 20 21 22
7-May-13 21 22 23
18-Jun-13 22 23 24
30-Jul-13 23 24 25
10-Sep-13 24 25 26
22-Oct-13 25 26 27


Try out the Nightly Firefox channel...
what's with the big blob off the coast of FL?
Quoting Tazmanian:
this is starting too really look good i think will see 91L soon



Future Rina?
Stormchaser2007's image in #566 reminds me of this. Just kidding!
Quoting tropicfreak:


Future Rina?





whats see if we get the P storm 1st but yes


Hmm the blow up south of ophilia is interesting since the anticyclone can be seen right over it well at least almost however no vort separate is present
Quoting Tazmanian:





whats see if we get the P storm 1st but yes


I think we will see Phillippe out of 90L, because it looks more organized. 91L then Rina for Bahamas.
Quoting clwstmchasr:


I agree with you on the path but upper level conditions have been poor all summer. I think FL could see a storm in October but right now I don't see it being a hurricane.

The Caribbean should be a favorable breeding ground for tropical cyclones to become strong storms.
Quoting tropicfreak:


I think we will see Phillippe out of 90L, because it looks more organized. 91L then Rina for Bahamas.




yup
Yep, Ophelia is at least 60 mph, per ASCAT.



Meanwhile...This is noteworthy of Code Red...Expect it at 2AM.

Come on guys...talk.

Speak.

Quoting Tazmanian:
this is starting too really look good i think will see 91L soon

Is it going to track North then North-East??
Fay in 2008 and Maria were tropical storms continuously for 195 hours. Will Ophelia beat them? Hmmmmm.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The Caribbean should be a favorable breeding ground for tropical cyclones to become strong storms.


Normally I would agree with you. I'm a big believer in trends and the trend this year has been wind shear and dry air. Having said that, all it takes is for a dome of high pressure to build over the NW Caribbean and with the warm water a strong storms can blow up quickly. Until it happens, I'm sticking with a sheared tropical storm.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Come on guys...talk.

Speak.

hello
Bahamas AOI looks interesting tonight. Just speaking FOR TA13. ;)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Yep, Ophelia is at least 60 mph, per ASCAT.



Meanwhile...This is noteworthy of Code Red...Expect it at 2AM.

i don't see any 60mph barbs on that ASCAT pass...
Quoting TomTaylor:
i don't see any 60mph barbs on that ASCAT pass...


Those black barbs indicate 50 kt. winds, or 60 mph.

Yes, I'm sure its not 0-5 mph :P
WOW!!!!
Quoting BDADUDE:
Is it going to track North then North-East??


Yep, the steering flow has been pretty consistent all year (except for a very short while when Irene snuck up the coast.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Come on guys...talk.

Speak.

Rof Rof
Quoting JasonWildMan2002:
I think we may see a hurricane hitting gulf coast maybe next week!!!


Based on what?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Those black barbs indicate 50 kt. winds, or 60 mph.

Yes, I'm sure its not 0-5 mph :P
Those black barbs indicate data that is contaminated. Nothing in that pass denotes winds higher than 35 knots.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Come on guys...talk.

Speak.



Hi, watching the storms near me.
TS.Ophelia's_12amGMT_ATCF : Starting 23Sept_12amGMT and ending 24Sept_12amGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormOphelia's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 24Sept_12amGMT,
the dot at 25.8n69.05w (left top-edge) is the endpoint of the 23Sept_6pmGMT straightline projection,
and the island blob at 15.439n61.256w-DOM is the endpoint of the 23Sept_12pmGMT
straightline projection connected to its nearest airport.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
TS.Ophelia's travel-speed was 9.2mph(14.8k/h) on a heading of 284.6degrees(WNW)
TS.Ophelia was headed toward passing 11.3miles(18.2kilometres) south of Barbuda ~2days7hours from now

Copy&paste 15.439n61.256w-dom, 25.8n69.05w, 13.9n49.3w-14.3n50.4w, 14.3n50.4w-14.5n52.0w, 14.5n52.0w-15.4n53.2w, 15.4n53.2w-15.6n54.0w, tapt, 15.4n53.2w-17.379n61.767w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 23Sept_6pmGMT
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Those black barbs indicate data that is contaminated. Nothing in that pass denotes winds higher than 35 knots.


No...those black barbs indicate winds at 50 knots :)

Black CIRCLES are contaminated data.
With the models being very scattered and uncertain.. I'm VERY skeptical of Ophelia recurving.. It might just stay weak and head west. We've seen many systems in the past do this. "Frances" in 2004, was expected to recurve while it was an Invest/TD. Things can happen. It's gonna be interesting and bout the GFDL and HWRF? Throw them out, Ophelia is still moving WNW, now NW as they have it. If anything, I have to go with the western solution if it recurves.
Quoting Tazmanian:





you still dont get it dont you



POOF other jason name too add


.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Come on guys...talk.

Speak.


Bonsoir.
you are feeding it Tazz
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Those black barbs indicate 50 kt. winds, or 60 mph.

Yes, I'm sure its not 0-5 mph :P
50 knot barbs are a dark purple, not black.

A better way to check is to look at the number of barbs on each little barb. A long barb is 10 knots, and a short barb is 5. Add them all up to get your final value. Also, if it were 50 knots, it would be marked with a pennant, or those little triangle looking things.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


No...those black barbs indicate winds at 50 knots :)

Black CIRCLES are contaminated data.
It's the same thing.

One way or another, if you look at the barbs, there are no barbs indicative of winds above 50 knots. All are 30 knots, or lower. Regardless, they're still contaminated so it doesn't matter. :p

img src=""> Tropical Update Ready!!!
Quoting reedzone:
With the models being very scattered and uncertain.. I'm VERY skeptical of Ophelia recurving.. It might just stay weak and head west. We've seen many systems in the past do this. "Frances" in 2004, was expected to recurve while it was an Invest/TD. Things can happen. It's gonna be interesting and bout the GFDL and HWRF? Throw them out, Ophelia is still moving WNW, now NW as they have it. If anything, I have to go with the western solution if it recurves.
Pretty hard not to get a recurve when you got this kind of 500mb longwave pattern being forecasted.

Quoting Tazmanian:




soi noted all so i re move that post
good job taz :)
Quoting reedzone:
With the models being very scattered and uncertain.. I'm VERY skeptical of Ophelia recurving.. It might just stay weak and head west. We've seen many systems in the past do this. "Frances" in 2004, was expected to recurve while it was an Invest/TD. Things can happen. It's gonna be interesting and bout the GFDL and HWRF? Throw them out, Ophelia is still moving WNW, now NW as they have it. If anything, I have to go with the western solution if it recurves.
There's no escaping positively-tilted longwaves.

12z ECMWF; 192 hours.
Quoting Tazmanian:




i like too say Welcome back too the blogs




NOT!


Stop responding :(
90 will be a fish in a hurry
Central Florida's football team is pee-peeing this game away!!!

Noticed that the latest model runs for Ophelia don't have as much loop-de-loop as the earlier ones. Looks like the strengthening moved them further north and east. Bermuda still very much in play.

Is there much chance she misses her turn? TIA.

BTW, cool avatar Taz. We went rafting in Tennessee a few weeks ago... very fun!
HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 23 2011

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH HILARY CONTINUES TO BE RATHER
SPECTACULAR ON BOTH CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE
DATA. IT IS SMALL BUT VERY SYMMETRIC WITH A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED
BY VERY STRONG CONVECTION. ALL SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES YIELD
AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY GOOD
PREVAILING ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION...HILARY COULD STILL
GAIN SOME STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EVEN IF EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES OCCUR AND RESULT IN FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY...HILARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AS A POWERFUL HURRICANE
FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE ENVIRONMENT
BECOMES LESS CONDUCIVE...AND HILARY SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.

TRACKING THE EYE ON SATELLITE GIVES AN INITIAL MOTION OF 280
DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE STEERING PATTERN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS
NORMALLY VERY STEADY...AND THIS TIME IS NO DIFFERENT. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE HILARY ON A
GENERAL WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE WILL REACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AND EVEN NORTHWARD BUT
VERY SLOWLY. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INITIALLY
WHEN THE STEERING IS WELL ESTABLISHED. BEYOND 3 DAYS...THE GUIDANCE
BECOMES REALLY DIVERGENT...BUT THE GENERAL TUNE IS FOR THE
HURRICANE TO GAIN LATITUDE OR TO RECURVE. IT COULD BE AN
INTERESTING BUT DIFFICULT FORECAST BEYOND FIVE DAYS. I AM GLAD I DO
NOT HAVE TO MAKE IT AT THIS TIME.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 16.7N 104.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 16.9N 105.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 17.3N 107.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 17.5N 109.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 17.8N 110.7W 115 KT 135 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 18.0N 113.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 19.5N 115.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 21.0N 116.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
638. JLPR2
:(
Quoting help4u:
Jason you the man!!!!!!!!!!!!1
He is ...... well....... unusual........wakes the blog up
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 23 2011

...OPHELIA FLUCTUATING IN INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 54.5W
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
Friday night and, sadly, the trolls still cannot get a date.
I dont like that by Bahamas!!!
Rain for the east coast..is this bahama wave (AOI) projected to move to up the east coast or out to sea? looks like from the map, its moving up the coast

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
OK :P
here are a few examples out of southern hemisphere winter storms, to show that 50 knot barbs aren't black and are in fact purple lol





Quoting TomTaylor:
here are a few examples out of southern hemisphere winter storms, to show that 50 knot barbs aren't black and are in fact purple lol





Double rainbow!! So intense. LOL!!!
651. 7544
ahh i knew we get a yellow code for the bahama wave as i posted back on page 6 this afternoon
Some places offshore Antarctica are so stormy that the average sea level pressure is below 980 mb in winter!

Quoting TomTaylor:
here are a few examples out of southern hemisphere winter storms, to show that 50 knot barbs aren't black and are in fact purple lol





UARS satellite is heading into north Africa.

This image is supposed to update automatically.

This is slightly off-topic, but interesting:


As of 10:30 p.m. EDT on Sept. 23, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 85 miles by 90 miles (135 km by 140 km). Re-entry is expected between 11:45 p.m. Friday, Sept. 23, and 12:45 a.m., Sept. 24, Eastern Daylight Time (3:45 a.m. to 4:45 a.m. GMT). During that time period, the satellite will be passing over Canada and Africa, as well as vast areas of the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian oceans. The risk to public safety is very remote.




Quoting JasonWildMan2002:
Ines Sainz? post 648
I think it's interesting too terradad.

Here is another link showing where UARS is.

Supposed to update automatically when you click on it.
Quoting JasonWildMan2002:
Seriously Jason, how did you fare from Irene?
UARS is speeding towards its last sunrise.
Quoting petewxwatcher:
Some places offshore Antarctica are so stormy that the average sea level pressure is below 980 mb in winter!

Wow, that's ridiculous.
Quoting petewxwatcher:
UARS is speeding towards its last sunrise.
Looks like it might be heading just a little bit more WEST than they thought. Ha.
Quoting petewxwatcher:
UARS satellite is heading into north Africa.

This image is supposed to update automatically.

Dang. I was hoping it was gonna crash on my school. :/
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Dang. I was hoping it was gonna crash on my school. :/
hahah

This whole time I was hoping it would stay far away from me, but you bring up a good point lol
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Dang. I was hoping it was gonna crash on my school. :/
My school was near JFK in New York and we did have a big jetliner crash land real close one day.....just a few hundred yards away.
Click pic for loop.
666. JLPR2
LLC is still under 25knots of wind shear.

Lotta flood..Thailand has 5 bars like epic, Philippines, Cambodia & India.. Spain is still on fire.
UARS has passed New Zealand. Next stop--Seattle!
TRMM pass of 90L.


If only satellites could stay alive forever..
670. JLPR2
An EWRC will have to occur sooner or later.
Fresh windsat of 90L
Quoting Skyepony:
Lotta flood..Thailand has 5 bars like epic, Philippines, Cambodia & India.. Spain is still on fire.
Here in the US we have historic flooding on the Mississippi. Texas historically parched. Too many coincidental historical events to deny the obvious. Strong Pacific basin, hostile Atlantic basin for tropical cyclone formation. For a few years now. Might there be some connection between the climate extremes and the longer-term outlook for cyclone activity changing?
OCEANSAT has been having problems since this morning..
Quoting JLPR2:
An EWRC will have to occur sooner or later.


Not always. Isabel in 2003 was steady-state for several days. I think Isabel was the last true annular hurricane in the Atlantic.

90L has consolidated considerably tonight, juxtaposed to what it looked like this afternoon. Looking at the loop, lower-level inflow channels have become well-established and the overall cyclonic curvature of the system has become very evident over the past few hours. In summary, I expect a 60-80% chance in the next TWO and a renumber in the late morning hours, should the current organizational trend continue of course.
UARS is 10 minutes away from Seattle.
ecmwf show MIs 1st lake effect snow next week
Quoting petewxwatcher:
UARS is 10 minutes away from Seattle.

Yeah, if it can hold out for another five minutes, there's a better than 50/50 shot that it ends up on land in either Canada or Africa. At the very least, I hope some good video is shot...
00z GFS pretty much drops Ophelia at 60hrs out
Night everyone,
Ophelia will weaken again for about 36 hours. Gradual restrengthening after about 72 hours is possible.
90L is looking fantastic for a EATL tropical wave at this time of year. Should see CODE RED at 2 AM, and a renumber tomorrow. Agree with you Miamihurricane09.
one isobar back on her at 126hrs
Quoting will40:
00z GFS pretty much drops Ophelia at 60hrs out
Still doesn't display any interest in 90L...
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Still doesn't display any interest in 90L...


nope sure doesnt
Tropical Storm Nesat.
I would think that dense air over tropical Africa will bring down the Big Bird
Hello folks,

I just wanted to let everyone know that I am leaving this blog. I will not disclose the reason why I left, but I just wanted to let everyone know that I am doing so. Thanks again to everyone who made this place memorable, especially you Grothar.

Canes
Quoting caneswatch:
Hello folks,

I just wanted to let everyone know that I am leaving this blog. I will not disclose the reason why I left, but I just wanted to let everyone know that I am doing so. Thanks again to everyone who made this place memorable, especially you Grothar.

Canes


Goodbye canes. So whos left now?
Quoting caneswatch:
Hello folks,

I just wanted to let everyone know that I am leaving this blog. I will not disclose the reason why I left, but I just wanted to let everyone know that I am doing so. Thanks again to everyone who made this place memorable, especially you Grothar.

Canes
Sad to see everyone leaving. I wish you luck with whatever happens in the future.
Good luck canes!!!
Quoting caneswatch:
Hello folks,

I just wanted to let everyone know that I am leaving this blog. I will not disclose the reason why I left, but I just wanted to let everyone know that I am doing so. Thanks again to everyone who made this place memorable, especially you Grothar.

Canes
We will miss your quality posts. Reconsider.
Apparently, UARS is down, but NASA hasn't yet officially announced when or where...

Update #13
Sat, 24 Sep 2011 12:55:17 AM EDT

As of 10:30 p.m. EDT on Sept. 23, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 85 miles by 90 miles (135 km by 140 km). Re-entry was expected between 11:45 p.m. Friday, Sept. 23, and 12:45 a.m., Sept. 24, Eastern Daylight Time (3:45 a.m. to 4:45 a.m. GMT). During that time period, the satellite was passing over Canada and Africa, as well as vast areas of the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian oceans. The risk to public safety was very remote. NASA is working to confirm the re-entry location and time and will provide an update shortly.
696. Relix
So, PR pretty much safe from Ophelia aside from rains right?
Should be 70-90% at 2am, and a depression later this morning.

a lady claimed the sky was light up near the ontario quebec border thinking it went down in northern quebec
Fairly impressive.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Should be 70-90% at 2am, and a depression later this morning.

Very compact, but well organized.
Quoting EstherD:
Apparently, UARS is down, but NASA hasn't yet officially announced when or where...

Update #13
Sat, 24 Sep 2011 12:55:17 AM EDT

As of 10:30 p.m. EDT on Sept. 23, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 85 miles by 90 miles (135 km by 140 km). Re-entry was expected between 11:45 p.m. Friday, Sept. 23, and 12:45 a.m., Sept. 24, Eastern Daylight Time (3:45 a.m. to 4:45 a.m. GMT). During that time period, the satellite was passing over Canada and Africa, as well as vast areas of the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian oceans. The risk to public safety was very remote. NASA is working to confirm the re-entry location and time and will provide an update shortly.


Space junk hurtles towards Australia


I will be taking a few days off, My favorite uncle passed away this morning, I was able to see him in hospital yesterday for 40mins and he was talking about being home next week. Well, he is home now, He is back with his beloved wife whom passed away 7 years ago. R.I.P Uncle Pat.

I'll be back in a few days, btw, models predicting another Super-Typhoon in the WPAC.
Quoting caneswatch:
Hello folks,

I just wanted to let everyone know that I am leaving this blog. I will not disclose the reason why I left, but I just wanted to let everyone know that I am doing so. Thanks again to everyone who made this place memorable, especially you Grothar.

Canes
See ya.

Bummed to see everyone leaving
...80 PERCENT...

17L will probably be renumbered this morning.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM OPHELIA...LOCATED ABOUT 490 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN
THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO
FORM LATER TODAY...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

2. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
...80 PERCENT...

17L will probably be renumbered this morning.
dang high level code red
UARS is down. NASA will not say where. Apparently they are awaiting conformation from their tracking stations before giving the official thumb down.
Nice optical illution... The cat is moving left or right? With mental practice you can make it switch rotation....

Any coincidence with this year storm behaviour... Or with our predictions based on personal criteria...

Quoting sunlinepr:
Nice optical illution... The cat is moving left or right? With mental practice you can make it switch rotation....

Any coincidence with this year storm behaviour...



It is rotating counter clockwise. I don't see the illusion?
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


It is rotating counter clockwise. I don't see the illusion?


Look at it and open and close your eyes rapidly... Try to make it rotate clockwise... Or concentrate on the left side of the frame or on the right side of the frame....

Well, good night all...
Quoting sunlinepr:


Look at it and open and close your eyes rapidly... Try to make it rotate clockwise... Or concentrate on the left side of the frame or on the right side of the frame....

Well, good night all...


I see...the cat is actually heading west!
Pressure down to 1007mb, winds to tropical depression force. 17L by 5a.m isn't out of the question.

AL, 90, 2011092406, , BEST, 0, 105N, 245W, 30, 1007, LO,
Quoting TomTaylor:
It already looks like a minute tropical storm.

Will it fare better with shear or will it end up with another literation of Ophelia?
Eyewall.
:O
718. JLPR2
So now we have TD 17, so sad no one is around. :\
AL, 17, 2011092406, , BEST, 0, 105N, 245W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SEVENTEEN, M,

Also, Ophelia seems to be developing a weak secondary LLC to the SW of the main LLC, close to the weak convection around 15N, west of 55W.


Since the buoy at 14.6N and 56.2W is reporting south winds when they should be from the N or NW.
719. JLPR2
Hmm
well ophelia is making efforts to resist at the wind shear
TD17 advisory
000
WTNT32 KNHC 240858
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 AM AST SAT SEP 24 2011

...ANOTHER DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 25.2W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM S OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SEVENTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.2
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/H. A MOTION GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
While we're sitting shiva on Ophelia and watching TD 17 ramp up to become the year's 13th TC to max out at tropical storm strength, I thought I'd mention that weather historian Christopher C. Burt has an excellent blog entry out titled Atlantic Basin Tropical Storm Superlatives. It's a great list of the biggest, most powerful, wettest, longest-lived, etc., tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. One factoid I didn't know: "The most [rain] on record for a single tropical storm is the 112.80" that fell at the Silver Hill Plantation, Jamaica over the course of 5 days Nov. 5-9, 1909". That's more than nine feet, an unimaginable amount...
TD SEVENTEEN!!! lol
Philippe here we come, and from the looks of the NHC forecast, could make a run at hurricane status.
Good Morning.
000
WTNT42 KNHC 240858
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 AM AST SAT SEP 24 2011

THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE
CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MICROWAVE DATA FROM TRMM AND AMSR-E
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOWED DISTINCT CURVED BANDS...AND EARLY
MORNING VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS WELL EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE CLOUD CANOPY. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE
SYSTEM WAS CLOSED...AND HAD WINDS OF ABOUT 30 KT...SO THAT WILL BE
THE INITIAL INTENSITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE
DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM WATERS WITH LIGHT SHEAR. AFTER THAT TIME...
THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR FROM A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND DECREASING SSTS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT FOLLOWS THE TREND
OF THE LGEM MODEL.

BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/12. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE TURNS THE
SYSTEM MORE TOWARD THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE
TO A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE RELIABLE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STAYING FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE
DEPRESSION TO AVOID RECURVATURE...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS ON THE
LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND NOT TOO FAR FROM THE ECMWF
MODEL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 10.7N 25.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 11.1N 27.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 11.8N 29.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 12.7N 31.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 13.7N 33.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 16.0N 35.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 18.0N 37.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 20.0N 39.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
TD 17 Discussion for ya.
Quoting MoltenIce:
Eyewall.
Whastorm?
730. SLU
Quoting CaribBoy:
Finally Ophelia is a f...g fish like 90L... what a boring periode!


Where were you between 1995 and 1999 when 6 hurricanes headed your way in 5 seasons?
731. SLU
Quoting SLU:


Where were you between 1995 and 1999 when 6 hurricanes headed your way in 5 seasons?


MH LUIS 1995, MH MARILYN 1995, MH HORTENSE 1996, H ERIKA 1997, MH GEORGES 1998 & MH LENNY 1999.
Quoting AussieStorm:


Space junk hurtles towards Australia


I will be taking a few days off, My favorite uncle passed away this morning, I was able to see him in hospital yesterday for 40mins and he was talking about being home next week. Well, he is home now, He is back with his beloved wife whom passed away 7 years ago. R.I.P Uncle Pat.

I'll be back in a few days, btw, models predicting another Super-Typhoon in the WPAC.


Im so sorry for your loss.
In this image, the large and highly disorganized Ophelia is on the left side of the image, while compact and strengthening TD17, just off the African coast, seems poised to become Philippe later today. And over Africa, there may be one more little blob, but the ITCZ is clearly moving south for the winter. Even the fingers of cirrus reaching onto the Horn of Africa from the Indian Ocean--an indicator that the wave train is still producing--have all but disappeared.

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
Quoting Neapolitan:
While we're sitting shiva on Ophelia and watching TD 17 ramp up to become the year's 13th TC to max out at tropical storm strength, I thought I'd mention that weather historian Christopher C. Burt has an excellent blog entry out titled Atlantic Basin Tropical Storm Superlatives. It's a great list of the biggest, most powerful, wettest, longest-lived, etc., tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. One factoid I didn't know: "The most [rain] on record for a single tropical storm is the 112.80" that fell at the Silver Hill Plantation, Jamaica over the course of 5 days Nov. 5-9, 1909". That's more than nine feet, an unimaginable amount...


Thanks for the link, interesting blog from the resident historian. 1909 was a pretty active season for the time period, including one of the Grand Isle hurricanes and the last major in the BoC before Karl last year.
Quoting AussieStorm:


Space junk hurtles towards Australia


I will be taking a few days off, My favorite uncle passed away this morning, I was able to see him in hospital yesterday for 40mins and he was talking about being home next week. Well, he is home now, He is back with his beloved wife whom passed away 7 years ago. R.I.P Uncle Pat.

I'll be back in a few days, btw, models predicting another Super-Typhoon in the WPAC.


Very sorry to hear about your loss. Prayers are with you and your family.
AussieStorm Take all the time that you need. we will still be here. I am sorry for your loss! I know what you're feeling
Quoting sunlinepr:
Nice optical illution... The cat is moving left or right? With mental practice you can make it switch rotation....

Any coincidence with this year storm behaviour... Or with our predictions based on personal criteria...



Oh, dude, it was going rotating one direction, then I kinda unfocused my eyes and dang if it was not going the other direction with I refocused in! GREAT optical illusion! Thanks for something fun to celebrate SATURDAY morning! Now, wonder if I can do it again.......
And amazing, another depression coming.

So, providing Philippe comes from it, onto storm 16. If, hypothetically, the rest of the season provide 8 storms together, then 2010-11 will equal the record of most tropical storms in two seasons (2004-05).

With another season seemingly heading into a 18 plus storm season (even if we still lack the lull), can we now issue slappings with tuna to anyone who mentions an average of 11 storms without qualification?

Quoting sunlinepr:
Nice optical illution... The cat is moving left or right? With mental practice you can make it switch rotation....

Any coincidence with this year storm behaviour... Or with our predictions based on personal criteria...

Now if was a fish every one would see it !The Atlantic just don't have Cats
While waiting for the 12pmGMT_ATCF...

14.5n52.0w, 15.4n53.2w, 15.6n54.0w have been re-evaluated&altered for TS.Ophelia's_6amGMT_ATCF
14.6n51.9w, 15.3n53.2w, 15.7n54.0w, 16.5n54.7w are now the most recent positions
Starting 23Sept_6amGMT and ending 24Sept_6amGMT

The 4 southeastern line-segments represent TropicalStormOphelia's path,
the northwesternmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 24Sept_6amGMT,
the sea-to-island blob at 17.379n61.767w-TAPT is the endpoint of the straightline projection
connected to its nearest airport for the24Sept_12amGMT*mapping.
and the ocean dot at 25.8n69.05w (near top-edge, left) is the same for the 23Sept_6pmGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
TS.Ophelia's travel-speed was 12mph(19.3k/h) on a heading of 319.9degrees(NW)
TS.Ophelia was headed toward passing ~520miles(837kilometres) north of Anegada.

Copy&paste 25.8n69.05w, 17.379n61.767w-tapt, 14.3n50.4w-14.6n51.9w, 14.6n51.9w-15.3n53.2w, 15.3n53.2w-15.7n54.0w, 15.7n54.0w-16.5n54.7w, 16.5n54.7w-26.3n64.02w, ngd-26.3n64.02w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 24Sept_12amGMT

* The alterations of the endpoints of a TropicalCyclone's previous paths also change its previous travel-speeds&headings, and the endpoints of its previous straightline projections...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
Quoting DKICAT:
Now if was a fish every one would see it !The Atlantic just don't have Cats


Sure? We did have Felix...

Quoting Neapolitan:

A valid point. The 1950-2010 average is, indeed, 11/6.2/2.7, with an ACE of 102, but the 1995-2010 average is 14.6/7.9/3.8 and an ACE of 140.

FWIW, we've obviously already reached the 95-10 average for named storms, and I'm confident we'll reach that hurricane and major hurricane averages. But ACE? I wouldn't count on it at this point...


Not sure about the hurricanes and majors, either. Another major somewhere seems reasonable, not sure about two. Say the lull still comes and November isn't too friendly for majors (though we have seen a couple over the last few years), it's a tight window.

Yep, the 50-present average is fine if it's qualified with the average of the current AMOplus regime.

(Urgh, I used the phrase 'tuna fish'. Mustn't use obvious Americanisms, particularly when they are tautological.)
reports confirming the satellite came down southof calgary canada,thiers a youtube video of someone taking a vid with their i phone
Wow quite the eye hilary has.

There is some rotation here off the east coast of FL.

Link
That cat looks menacing.

I wonder what model that is?

In other news, fortunately it appears the UARS satellite was a fish storm.
Quoting randomdude:
There is some rotation here off the east coast of FL.

Link


Keep an eye on that. Theres lots of deep tropical moisture in central florida, and they predict more rain for today and tomorrow.
Quoting TomTaylor:
here are a few examples out of southern hemisphere winter storms, to show that 50 knot barbs aren't black and are in fact purple lol

Everyone knows black barbs are rain contaminated data ... right?
Aussie Storm, so sorry about your Uncle.
TD17 pressure is down another millibar to 1006. It won;t be long now:

AL, 17, 2011092412, , BEST, 0, 108N, 260W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SEVENTEEN, M,
Quoting zicoille:
If you call those 6 hurricanes....hurricanes! They were a joke ! This is a Big Cat 5 that we want ! Not little storms like Irene Maria or Ophelia who doesn't know what they want ...

If you have really been affected by a category 5 hurricane, you wouldn't feel that way. A category 5 hurricane is very dangerous, and when it makes landfall casualties and damage follow
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
TROPICAL STORM PEDRING (NESAT)
5:00 PM PhST September 24 2011
=============================

The tropical storm East of Southern Luzon has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility and was named "PEDRING"

At 4:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Pedring (Nesat) located at 14.9°N 134.9°E or 1,030 km east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Additional Information
=====================

TS "PEDRING" is still too far to directly affect any part of the country.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL STORM NESAT (T1117)
21:00 PM JST September 24 2011
=================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Nesat (994 hPa) located at 15.0N 133.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 13 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 16.3N 129.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 17.3N 126.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 18.4N 122.9E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
Quoting randomdude:
There is some rotation here off the east coast of FL.

Link


Nice... its too far out to get a reading on doppler.. velocities only read out 124nm. I'll be watching!
Quoting zicoille:
If you call those 6 hurricanes....hurricanes! They were a joke ! This is a Big Cat 5 that we want ! Not little storms like Irene Maria or Ophelia who doesn't know what they want ...


Good morning, all!

Ack. Obviously another kid. I love kids. I love to see them on here. I love to see them on here when they are here to learn and to contribute. We have some awesome kids here that really know their stuff. But with every good, there comes the not good. Wishing for death and destruction shows a serious lack of maturity. If you want to be taken seriously, you need to act responsible.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21
21:00 PM JST September 24 2011
=================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (998 hPa) located at 15.5N 111.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 16.4N 111.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
TD17 already looks like it may be at T.S. status
Good Morning.
Ophelia, Hilary, Nesat, TD# 17, and TD#21 all happening at the same time. Interesting day.
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Good morning, all!

Ack. Obviously another kid. I love kids. I love to see them on here. I love to see them on here when they are here to learn and to contribute. We have some awesome kids here that really know their stuff. But with every good, there comes the not good. Wishing for death and destruction shows a serious lack of maturity. If you want to be taken seriously, you need to act responsible.
Not necessarily a kid. Immaturity and ignorance is not confined to an age group.
Quoting randomdude:
There is some rotation here off the east coast of FL.

Link


Many of us took notice of this area yesterday. Our local Met even mentioned the area this morning. We could see something get going, but it should stay relatively weak and get pulled northward and out to sea.
Quoting zicoille:
If you call those 6 hurricanes....hurricanes! They were a joke ! This is a Big Cat 5 that we want ! Not little storms like Irene Maria or Ophelia who doesn't know what they want ...
Don't worry, this is a nice experience...
Quoting Neapolitan:
While we're sitting shiva on Ophelia and watching TD 17 ramp up to become the year's 13th TC to max out at tropical storm strength, I thought I'd mention that weather historian Christopher C. Burt has an excellent blog entry out titled Atlantic Basin Tropical Storm Superlatives. It's a great list of the biggest, most powerful, wettest, longest-lived, etc., tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. One factoid I didn't know: "The most [rain] on record for a single tropical storm is the 112.80" that fell at the Silver Hill Plantation, Jamaica over the course of 5 days Nov. 5-9, 1909". That's more than nine feet, an unimaginable amount...


Hurricane Mitch may have broken that record if there was someone in the mountains of Honduras to record it.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Not necessarily a kid. Immaturity and ignorance is not confined to an age group.


Oh, I know, Shen. But you can be in your forties and still be a kid in mentality and maturity. If you act like a child, expect to be treated as one. Sad, but true. Asking for death and the ruin of people's lives is childish.

How've you been? I'm still waiting for fall here. Beautiful temps in the mornings, but 90's by afternoon still.
Good morning all.

Visible satellite imagery shows that Tropical Depression #17 is a small, yet well-defined, tropical entity. It has nice banding features, deep convection atop the LLC, and winds likely near 40 mph. This should be Tropical Storm Philippe at 11AM. I believe the National Hurricane Center is a little conservative with the intensity, AND givens its current organization and environmental conditions, I believe it will peak as a hurricane.

Should see Philippe at 11, 40 Mph 1006 MB or 1005 MB. Ophelia: 50 Mph
Quoting zicoille:

Lolll,this is not a lack of maturity, just the only way to clean up our islands, and also to put responsability in the mind of the people who loose the basics of the life. I prefer a hurricane than a eartquake ... If you don't have experienced hurricanes... know that after, everyone learn that the life is not egoïsm... That's a bad way, but it works !


I understand what you're saying, but too many who aren't egotistical and are good people will suffer as well. Better to find another way to educate that doesn't hurt the innocent. Think of the children there if no one else.
Geez, Hilary taking a nose dive SW.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good morning all.

Visible satellite imagery shows that Tropical Depression #17 is a small, yet well-defined, tropical entity. It has nice banding features, deep convection atop the LLC, and winds likely near 40 mph. This should be Tropical Storm Philippe at 11AM. I believe the National Hurricane Center is a little conservative with the intensity, AND givens its current organization and environmental conditions, I believe it will peak as a hurricane.


That is one very tiny storm. lol
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Another Earl. Another season like last year with that same upper level steering. And another uneventful hurricane season. Boring.

Next please.



We on the east coast would def not agree with your statement
This season is on the heels of 2005 AGAIN!!! It's been on the heels of 05 all season, but were still holding on, Philippe puts us one storm behind, and 2005 won't get Stan until October, we have one week to pull of a storm to tie us for the THIRD time this season.
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Another Earl. Another season like last year with that same upper level steering. And another uneventful hurricane season. Boring.

Next please.


Sounds like you're wishing for landfalls..?
ADT on 17L is up to 2.6, or TS status. RAW T however is up to 3.3.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Sounds like you're wishing for landfalls..?


I don't get what his problem is, it seems to him Irene wasn't enough.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
ADT on 17L is up to 2.6, or TS status. RAW T however is up to 3.3.


Yep, TS Philippe is coming.
Quoting will40:



We on the east coast would def not agree with your statement

A weak hurricane with massive amounts of rain. That could of been a major hurricane barreling down on the NC coast. That could of been a minimal hurricane moving up the East Coast with that trajectory and path. What a bullet you guys dodged.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yep, TS Philippe is coming.


Probably not enough to upgrade 17L to Philippe at 11 IMO.
24/1145 UTC 10.7N 26.2W T1.5/1.5 17L
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I don't get what his problem is, it seems to him Irene wasn't enough.

They dodged a huge bullet.
Ophelia:
Final T#
1.7
Adj T#
2.1
Raw T#
3.1

17:
Final T#
2.6
Adj T#
3.0
Raw T#
3.3


So from the looks of it we will have Philippe at 11
Quoting cat5hurricane:

A weak hurricane with massive amounts of rain. That could of been a major hurricane barreling down on the NC coast. That could of been a minimal hurricane moving up the East Coast with that trajectory and path. What a bullet you guys dodged.

Yes, we know that it could have been worse. But so could have Katrina, Rita, or any other destructive hurricane that has hit the United States before. Just because it could've been worse, that doesn't mean you should make it sound like it was nothing. Remember, I actually went through the hurricane.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Ophelia:
Final T#
1.7
Adj T#
2.1
Raw T#
3.1

17:
Final T#
2.6
Adj T#
3.0
Raw T#
3.3


So from the looks of it we will have Philippe at 11


Not yet, don't put too much faith in ADT. It's not very good with weaker systems.

(In fact, you could say it's not very good at all).
ADT showing 50 Mph.

CI showing 40 Mph.

So 40 Mph Philippe at 11Am
I had to evacuate from this island i am on for 5 days so im not interested in your crap
I'm not bothering with T-numbers, they suck with weak systems, as in tropical depressions (not the sheared TC's like Ophelia, they REALLY are horrible then).

Just looking at the satellite presentation shows us that we have Tropical Storm Philippe.

Good morning!

I see we now have TD 17. It looks pretty close to TS intensity.
POLL:
1. How Strong will SEVENTEEN/Philippe be?
(A) Weak Tropical Storm(40 to 50 Mph)
(B) Moderate Tropical Storm(50 Mph to 60 Mph)
(C) Strong Tropical Storm(60 Mph to 70 Mph)
(D) Minor Hurricane(Cat 1 to Cat 2)
(E) Major Hurricane(Cat 3 to Cat 4)

2. How strong will be Ophelia be?
(A) Weak Tropical Storm(40 to 50 Mph)
(B) Moderate Tropical Storm(50 Mph to 60 Mph)
(C) Strong Tropical Storm(60 Mph to 70 Mph)
(D) Minor Hurricane(Cat 1 to Cat 2)
(E) Major Hurricane(Cat 3 to Cat 4)
(F) Ophelia has already peaked(65 Mph)

3. When will we see Rina?
(A) Before the end of the month
(B) Early October
(C) Mid October
(D) End OCtober

4. Will we exhaust(Finish) our naming list this season?
(A) Yes
(B) No
(C) Maybe

5. What's your hurricane predictions right now?
To think it was a yellow circle 24 hours ago...
Why? XD
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
POLL:
1. How Strong will SEVENTEEN/Philippe be?
(A) Weak Tropical Storm(40 to 50 Mph)
(B) Moderate Tropical Storm(50 Mph to 60 Mph)
(C) Strong Tropical Storm(60 Mph to 70 Mph)
(D) Minor Hurricane(Cat 1 to Cat 2)
(E) Major Hurricane(Cat 3 to Cat 4)

2. How strong will be Ophelia be?
(A) Weak Tropical Storm(40 to 50 Mph)
(B) Moderate Tropical Storm(50 Mph to 60 Mph)
(C) Strong Tropical Storm(60 Mph to 70 Mph)
(D) Minor Hurricane(Cat 1 to Cat 2)
(E) Major Hurricane(Cat 3 to Cat 4)
(F) Ophelia has already peaked(65 Mph)

3. When will we see Rina?
(A) Before the end of the month
(B) Early October
(C) Mid October
(D) End OCtober

4. Will we exhaust(Finish) our naming list this season?
(A) Yes
(B) No
(C) Maybe

5. What's your hurricane predictions right now?
1.E B.D C.B 4.A
I don't understand why some people want major hurricane's to make landfall with all of the destruction they bring with them. I've lived through 11 separate hurricanes in my life and after everyone hope and pray it's the last, whether they were major's like Hugo of a brush by like Bret.

In about 45 minutes we'll know whether or not we have Phillipe yet. Interesting how this season mirrors 2005 in regards to the number and frequency of storms, I'm just happy that it hasn't copied it for landfalls as well.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
POLL:
1. How Strong will SEVENTEEN/Philippe be?
(A) Weak Tropical Storm(40 to 50 Mph)
(B) Moderate Tropical Storm(50 Mph to 60 Mph)
(C) Strong Tropical Storm(60 Mph to 70 Mph)
(D) Minor Hurricane(Cat 1 to Cat 2)
(E) Major Hurricane(Cat 3 to Cat 4)

2. How strong will be Ophelia be?
(A) Weak Tropical Storm(40 to 50 Mph)
(B) Moderate Tropical Storm(50 Mph to 60 Mph)
(C) Strong Tropical Storm(60 Mph to 70 Mph)
(D) Minor Hurricane(Cat 1 to Cat 2)
(E) Major Hurricane(Cat 3 to Cat 4)
(F) Ophelia has already peaked(65 Mph)

3. When will we see Rina?
(A) Before the end of the month
(B) Early October
(C) Mid October
(D) End OCtober

4. Will we exhaust(Finish) our naming list this season?
(A) Yes
(B) No
(C) Maybe

5. What's your hurricane predictions right now?

1:D
2:F
3:B
4:B
5: In april i had 16 8 and 4 now i say 21 7 and 4
That 'weak' hurricane cat5hurricane caused 10 BILLION dollars in damages, more than Jeanne, Mitch, and other storms. It was no Ike or Katrina, but it packed a punch and effected a lot of people from Puerto Rico to Maine.

AND the season ISN'T OVER yet, we're not into October. That is the season that sometimes the USA is at most risk, particularly the west coast of Florida. The GFS is predicting that an upward MJO phase, something that has been pretty much missing since August since Irene, will pull in with a vengeance over the Caribbean. This is a classic setup for development down there, as all the heat and energy will now be focused in the Western Caribbean. That 'saving grace' pattern will still be in place too, so it will cause our storms from doing this:


To doing this (track only):
Quoting aislinnpaps:


I understand what you're saying...

Quoting Lonewulf:
I don't understand why...


There's nothing that needs to be understood about trolling.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
POLL:
1. How Strong will SEVENTEEN/Philippe be?
(A) Weak Tropical Storm(40 to 50 Mph)
(B) Moderate Tropical Storm(50 Mph to 60 Mph)
(C) Strong Tropical Storm(60 Mph to 70 Mph)
(D) Minor Hurricane(Cat 1 to Cat 2)
(E) Major Hurricane(Cat 3 to Cat 4)

2. How strong will be Ophelia be?
(A) Weak Tropical Storm(40 to 50 Mph)
(B) Moderate Tropical Storm(50 Mph to 60 Mph)
(C) Strong Tropical Storm(60 Mph to 70 Mph)
(D) Minor Hurricane(Cat 1 to Cat 2)
(E) Major Hurricane(Cat 3 to Cat 4)
(F) Ophelia has already peaked(65 Mph)

3. When will we see Rina?
(A) Before the end of the month
(B) Early October
(C) Mid October
(D) End OCtober

4. Will we exhaust(Finish) our naming list this season?
(A) Yes
(B) No
(C) Maybe

5. What's your hurricane predictions right now?


1.) D
2.) C
3.) B
4.) A
5.) TOTAL: 21-23 named storms; 5-7 hurricanes; 3-5 major hurricanes
"That 'weak' hurricane cat5hurricane caused 10 BILLION dollars in damages, more than Jeanne, Mitch, and other storms. It was no Ike or Katrina, but it packed a punch and effected a lot of people from Puerto Rico to Maine."

Mitch should not be compared to Irene like that.

Irene was a bad storm and shouldn't be dismissed like some do.

but no price can put upon 12,000+ deaths, simple as.
First look:
TS.Ophelia's_12pmGMT_ATCF : Starting 23Sept_12pmGMT and ending 24Sept_12pmGMT

The 4 southeastern line-segments represent TropicalStormOphelia's path,
the northwesternmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 24Sept_12pmGMT,
the ocean dot(slightly east of due)south of BDA at 26.3n64.02w is the
endpoint of the straightline projection for the24Sept_6amGMT*mapping,
and the sea-to-island blob at 17.379n61.767w-TAPT is the endpoint of the straightline projection
connected to its nearest airport for the 24Sept_12amGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
TS.Ophelia's travel-speed was 15.2mph(24.4k/h) on a heading of 319.2degrees(NW)
TS.Ophelia was headed toward passing ~375miles(604kilometres) south of, then ~265miles(427kilometres) southwest of Bermuda.

Copy&paste 17.379n61.767w-tapt, 26.3n64.02w, 14.6n51.9w-15.3n53.2w, 15.3n53.2w-15.7n54.0w, 15.7n54.0w-16.5n54.7w, 16.5n54.7w-17.5n55.6w, bda, 16.5n54.7w-31.06n69.8w, 26.8n64.836w-32.247n64.836w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 24Sept_6amGMT

* The alterations of the endpoints of a TropicalCyclone's previous paths also change its previous travel-speeds&headings, and the endpoints of its previous straightline projections...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
When people talk nonsense about needing a Cat 5 to wipe people off the face of an island, I don't bite and acknowledge them. Obviously those of us who have experienced the pain, suffering, and property loss of hurricane victims, to say nothing of the grief caused by the loss of loved ones, would never agree with someone who flippantly wishes for a storm to "entertain" them and is angry that the storms are too weak for their taste. This is not somebody whose comments add value to the blog, but the ignore button is there for a reason so we don't have to pay attention to immaturity and lack of compassion. The good guys are still on here, those are the ones I listen to and learn from.
Watching the low off the east coast of Florida,looks like it is becoming a closed surface low. See if it can hang on throughout the day.
I guess Admin took a well deserved weekend off. Everyone who can't, use the "ignore" feature. Everyone else work the "!" and "-" features in that order. Empty space will follow.
Quoting overwash12:
Watching the low off the east coast of Florida,looks like it is becoming a closed surface low. See if it can hang on throughout the day.



a rain maker for east coast
Quoting will40:



a rain maker for east coast
We might get a little something,we'll see.
Question for all you wonderful wunderBloggers -
has there ever been a storm [like the size/position of Hillary] that has crossed over into the GOM and headed towards the USA? Just wondering as it seems that there's only a tiny slice of land at some points in mexico where a storm could cross over...Ive never seen it happen but I was wondering if it's possible
Looking at the latest photo of Hillary. Wondering how one would recognize "hot towers" and whether these are in the rain bands or in close to the eye. Yesterday the area of the eye looked different. Today it has what looks like highter clouds around the center with more unevenness(?sp). Thoughts anyone?
Were is P541 with his amazing sat pics of Hilary?
Quoting BlueSkiesAbove:
Question for all you wonderful wunderBloggers -
has there ever been a storm [like the size/position of Hillary] that has crossed over into the GOM and headed towards the USA? Just wondering as it seems that there's only a tiny slice of land at some points in mexico where a storm could cross over...Ive never seen it happen but I was wondering if it's possible


I guess its possible, but any tropical cyclone would dissipate over Mexico, regardless of how much land it had to traverse. Mexico is VERY mountainous, and will tear any circulation center of a tropical cyclone apart.
just noticed this from the 5AM advisory
Tropical Depression SEVENTEEN
...ANOTHER DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Quoting BlueSkiesAbove:
Question for all you wonderful wunderBloggers -
has there ever been a storm [like the size/position of Hillary] that has crossed over into the GOM and headed towards the USA? Just wondering as it seems that there's only a tiny slice of land at some points in mexico where a storm could cross over...Ive never seen it happen but I was wondering if it's possible
We have seen the opposite happen,I don't know about one coming from the Pacific ,though.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
just noticed this from the 5AM advisory
Tropical Depression SEVENTEEN
...ANOTHER DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...


Forecaster Blake is not amused.
Quoting BlueSkiesAbove:
Question for all you wonderful wunderBloggers -
has there ever been a storm [like the size/position of Hillary] that has crossed over into the GOM and headed towards the USA? Just wondering as it seems that there's only a tiny slice of land at some points in mexico where a storm could cross over...Ive never seen it happen but I was wondering if it's possible


The Isthmus of Tehuantapec in Southern Mexico is only about 130 miles across at it's narrow point, but it has high mountains running north and south. Don't know if those would disrupt the flow but seems like a row of 10,000 feet plus hills wouldn't do a storm any good.
Quoting overwash12:
Watching the low off the east coast of Florida,looks like it is becoming a closed surface low. See if it can hang on throughout the day.



From Crown Weather
"Trough Of Low Pressure Near The Bahamas Is Not Expected To Develop"
Quoting BlueSkiesAbove:
Question for all you wonderful wunderBloggers -
has there ever been a storm [like the size/position of Hillary] that has crossed over into the GOM and headed towards the USA? Just wondering as it seems that there's only a tiny slice of land at some points in mexico where a storm could cross over...Ive never seen it happen but I was wondering if it's possible


Storms have crossed from the Pacific into the Atlantic on 7 occasions (1842, 1902, 1923, 1949, 1961, 1965, 1989) whilst keeping some of its identity. There have been other storms which have had part of its energy being used to form a storm in another basin (remnants of a pacific TD formed into Hermine last year).

None of them were even close to Hilary's current strength, however. Position is okay, though.

Link
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
just noticed this from the 5AM advisory
Tropical Depression SEVENTEEN
...ANOTHER DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Yeah?
Quoting overwash12:
We have seen the opposite happen,I don't know about one coming from the Pacific ,though.


Had one last year.. TD-11E's MLC went on to become Hermine in the GOMEX.
everybody's F5ing on da NHC page, i bet.
Quoting interstatelover7165:
everybody's F5ing on da NHC page, i bet.


Yeah, but they are taking a while to update. :P
Quoting jrweatherman:



From Crown Weather
"Trough Of Low Pressure Near The Bahamas Is Not Expected To Develop"
I don't expect much either,but things change for sure!
Quoting interstatelover7165:
everybody's F5ing on da NHC page, i bet.
how did you know? :P
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah, but they are taking a while to update. :P
they got alot to handle and some of these storms are being very quirky
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Had one last year.. TD-11E's MLC went on to become Hermine in the GOMEX.
Yeah,I forgot about that.
Ophelia:

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
Hilary:

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
So what else we all doing this morning? i'm playin' S3&K on mah genesis. dibs if you know what IT is.
...OPHELIA CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 24
Location: 17.8°N 56.0°W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb

are we all waiting to see if we have philipe?

000
WTNT41 KNHC 241455
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 24 2011

DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED OVER AND
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.0/45 KT FROM
TAFB AND T3.1/47 KT FROM UW-CIMSS ADT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/11 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. A FAIRLY LARGE
SPREAD REMAINS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE
MODELS SHOWING A MORE WESTWARD MOTION DUE TO A WEAKER CYCLONE
EXPECTED...WHEREAS THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOW A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK DUE TO A MORE ROBUST AND STRONGER SYSTEM. THE ECMWF...
UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY. AS A
RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY NEAR THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK...AND LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AND TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL..TVCN...AFTER 72 HOURS.

SIMILAR TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY...VERY COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION HAS
REDEVELOPED IN THE FORM OF A CURVED BAND IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
GIVEN THAT OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGER THAN AVERAGE
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THE FACT THAT IT HAS ALREADY SURVIVED
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OF NEAR 30 KT...I SEE NO REASON WHY
THIS CYCLONE SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD LIKE SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. THE CURRENT SHEAR OF 25 KT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE TO 30 KT AFTER THAT. HOWEVER...AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ALLUDED TO...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING THAT AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES COULD FRACTURE AND
ALLOW RESTRENGTHENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AFTER 72 HOURS AS THE
OPHELIA MOVES INTO THIS REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THIS
SCENARIO IS MAINTAINED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH
SHOWS MODEST STRENGTHENING AT DAYS 4 AND 5 WHILE THE CYCLONE IS
STILL OVER SSTS OF NEAR 28C. THE INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS TOWARD
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL...ICON...THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND IS A
LITTLE LOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS AFTER THAT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 17.8N 56.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 18.8N 57.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 19.9N 59.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 20.9N 60.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 21.6N 61.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 23.3N 63.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 25.3N 63.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 27.3N 63.4W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TD #17:

35 mph
Well...Gotta wait until 5PM for Philippe.

Quoting TropicTraveler:


The Isthmus of Tehuantapec in Southern Mexico is only about 130 miles across at it's narrow point, but it has high mountains running north and south. Don't know if those would disrupt the flow but seems like a row of 10,000 feet plus hills wouldn't do a storm any good.


Very tough topography coming across that portion of Mexico indeed.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

A weak hurricane with massive amounts of rain. That could of been a major hurricane barreling down on the NC coast. That could of been a minimal hurricane moving up the East Coast with that trajectory and path. What a bullet you guys dodged.


if you were sitting here at 2 am when Irene made her closest approach to wilmington and hearing the winds that I heard, I dont think you would be minimizing it..and I have been through many hurricanes so I can say with certainity that Irene wasnt something to snicker about..it packed a punch with wind and rain here..
841. 7544
another strom in the graveyard when can we see any action in the caribiean start if it does at all

000
WTNT42 KNHC 241458
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2011

AFTER AN EARLIER INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND BANDING
FEATURES...THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION HAS
DECREASED A LITTLE SINCE THE 12Z FIXES. INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
T2.8/41 KT FROM UW-CIMSS ADT...T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB...AND T1.5/25
KT FROM SAB. HOWEVER...THE CURVED BAND TO THE NORTH OF CENTER HAS
FRACTURED AND DEGENERATED AND THE ADT ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON AN
UNREPRESENTATIVE SHEAR PATTERN. AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH
SEVERAL 30-KT WIND VECTORS NOTED IN A 1058Z ASCAT OVERPASS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/14. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR
SO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ORIENTED
EAST-WEST ALONG 20N LATITUDE. HOWEVER...BY 72 HOURS A BREAK IN THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 40-45W LONGITUDE AS A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE CYCLONE SLOWING DOWN AND TURNING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST INTO THE WEAKNESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN
EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCA.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
OR SO FOR INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AFTER THAT...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...ALBEIT TO
ONLY ABOUT 15 KT...FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SLOWER RATE
OF INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND FOLLOWS A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 11.0N 26.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 11.4N 28.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 12.2N 30.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 13.2N 32.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 14.2N 33.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 16.4N 36.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 18.4N 38.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 20.5N 39.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Hard to imagine that this isn't the "P" storm with its current satellite presentation.
If I was on a boat in the ATL I'd rather be under "O" than "P" to be.
Quoting 7544:
another strom in the graveyard when can we see any action in the caribiean start if it does at all


Refer to post 797 for your answer.
Another shiny new toy; this is the Bahamas AOI. 75 miles NNE of Freeport, 140 miles east of Vero Beach:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al912011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201109241514
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2011, DB, O, 2011092412, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912011
AL, 91, 2011092312, , BEST, 0, 243N, 763W, 15, 1013, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011092318, , BEST, 0, 250N, 770W, 15, 1013, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011092400, , BEST, 0, 258N, 775W, 15, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011092406, , BEST, 0, 266N, 779W, 15, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2011092412, , BEST, 0, 275N, 781W, 20, 1011, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
If P, and R develop we're only 4 storms from the end of the alphabet, pretty amazing.
This is more of a test to see if I can insert the image.

Quoting interstatelover7165:
So what else we all doing this morning? i'm playin' S3&K on mah genesis. dibs if you know what IT is.


Sonic 3 and Knuckles
Quoting ncstorm:


if you were sitting here at 2 am when Irene made her closest approach to wilmington and hearing the winds that I heard, I dont think you would be minimizing it..and I have been through many hurricanes so I can say with certainity that Irene wasnt something to snicker about..it packed a punch with wind and rain here..


Trees are the real issues up there. Pine trees up there are MUCH larger than down here in FL. Makes it pretty dangerous during a hurricane. Wouldn't find me near a bunch of those trees during a storm.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Another shiny new toy; this is the Bahamas AOI:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al912011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201109241509
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2011, DB, O, 2011092412, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912011
AL, 91, 2011092412, , BEST, 0, 275N, 781W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


Rick Knabb and Crown Weather are both downplaying although NHC has it at 20%. We've seen 20%'ers develop before haven't we?
Quoting E46Pilot:


Sonic 3 and Knuckles
Bingo!
Quoting jrweatherman:



From Crown Weather
"Trough Of Low Pressure Near The Bahamas Is Not Expected To Develop"
crown who? dr masters wears that here
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Rick Knabb and Crown Weather are both downplaying although NHC has it at 20%. We've seen 20%'ers develop before haven't we?


Yeah, but it shouldn't become anything.
Quoting charlottefl:


Trees are the real issues up there. Pine trees up there are MUCH larger than down here in FL. Makes it pretty dangerous during a hurricane. Wouldn't find me near a bunch of those trees during a storm.


Yep, they are really tall. We went out after Irene, after winds of 50-70 mph, and small to moderate limbs we're broken off.

None fell in our neighborhood, thank god.
857. HCW
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah, but it shouldn't become anything.


Key word: SHOULDN'T
That was my point. It's a little early to be dismissive.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Had one last year.. TD-11E's MLC went on to become Hermine in the GOMEX.

I've been praying for a Hermine II all year.
twc discussing why are there so many cut off lows past few yrs could be associated with climate change oh oh new invest taking a bad course?
Time: 15:12:00Z
Coordinates: 17.9667N 60.0333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 797.1 mb (~ 23.54 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,082 meters (~ 6,831 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1012.2 mb (~ 29.89 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 71° at 17 knots (From the ENE at ~ 19.5 mph)
Air Temp: 16.0°C (~ 60.8°F)
Dew Pt: 11.1°C (~ 52.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 18 knots (~ 20.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 34 knots (~ 39.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
What happened? I went to the store ,came back to a new invest!
864. HCW
Have a great day and ROLLTIDE

improving by the hr hot sept here in e.cen fl. so far
Quoting HCW:
Have a great day and ROLLTIDE




looks like the creeks and rivers here in NC are gonna fill soon
Quoting DKICAT:
Now if was a fish every one would see it !The Atlantic just don't have Cats


The Atlantic has Cats.... Cats 1-5
Quoting will40:



looks like the creeks and rivers here in NC are gonna fill soon


Flash flood warnings yesterday and it poured buckets in Raleigh!
Quoting TropicTraveler:


Flash flood warnings yesterday and it poured buckets in Raleigh!


yes and here on the coast also
Ophelia's center of circulation? Where? And heading NW? Visible shot is very confusing.
Quoting will40:



looks like the creeks and rivers here in NC are gonna fill soon



How many days out are we looking for NC? Fayetteville is just now seeing sun for the first time in 6 days.
Quoting AvidWeatherHound:



How many days out are we looking for NC? Fayetteville is just now seeing sun for the first time in 6 days.



prob most of next week the way i see it
Looks like the expected rain in PR won't be ....it will keep E....

FOUR things to watch in the Atlantic?? Ok, by a show of hands, who has previously stated the season was over?? Perhaps, you need to review The Chart again? LOL Anyone want to post it as I don't have one??

The Invest offshore of Florida is creating seriously HUMID day here and not a hint of a breeze. Maybe some wind at the beach, but nothing inland. Hope it spirals some rain bands our way today or tomorrow, tho.

You all have a great day!
Looks like a wet Sunday for southeast Florida...

wish we could send the rain to Tex
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT SAT 24 SEPTEMBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-116

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 25/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0416A OPHELIA
C. 25/1630Z
D. 20.4N 59.8W
E. 25/1700Z TO 25/2100Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR NORTHERN BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 25/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 25/1400Z
D. 28.0N 78.0W
E. 25/1730Z TO 25/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. 26/1800Z FIX FOR OPHELIA NEAR 22.3N 62.5W.
B. BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES ON SUSPECT AREA AT 26/1200Z
NEAR 30.0N 78.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
4. REMARK: POSSIBLE P-3 RESEARCH MISSION INTO OPHELIA
DEPARTING AT 25/1400Z.
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Rick Knabb and Crown Weather are both downplaying although NHC has it at 20%. We've seen 20%'ers develop before haven't we?


There was a 91L in the GOMEX in 2009 off Florida in August that had a low chance of developing, zip model support..

.. became Claudette the next day.
91 will be running the gulf stream
Thank you for answering that question re. Pacific storms becoming Atlantic storms! that's really interesting to know.

And now that there are four systems out there to be watched, whats the record number of systems in the Atlantic at one time? Four seems like a lot but I bet there have been more than this at one time during a season.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Looks like the expected rain in PR won't be ....it will keep E....


Southern EPAC sure is waking up today.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Looks like a wet Sunday for southeast Florida...

I hope that pans out...we could use some more rain.
Quoting sunlinepr:

Sunline, looking at the map, it looks like the only direction that Ophelia can go is west, then wsw over PR and under Cuba, then back up over possible Florida??? Am I reading this wrong? I mean, if she stays weak and the ridging above her does not catch her to shoot her wnw, then n, then ne? Your opinion and thoughts would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.
Quoting SLU:


MH LUIS 1995, MH MARILYN 1995, MH HORTENSE 1996, H ERIKA 1997, MH GEORGES 1998 & MH LENNY 1999.

There 's also BERTHA in 1996, JOSE in 1999 and DEBBY in 2000
Quoting BlueSkiesAbove:
Thank you for answering that question re. Pacific storms becoming Atlantic storms! that's really interesting to know.

And now that there are four systems out there to be watched, whats the record number of systems in the Atlantic at one time? Four seems like a lot but I bet there have been more than this at one time during a season.


IIRC, 2007 in October clocked 7 AOIs.
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:

Sunline, looking at the map, it looks like the only direction that Ophelia can go is west, then wsw over PR and under Cuba, then back up over possible Florida??? Am I reading this wrong? I mean, if she stays weak and the ridging above her does not catch her to shoot her wnw, then n, then ne? Your opinion and thoughts would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.
To me is looks like going west right now.See last visible shot.
Quoting PcolaDan:




Thank you. I just love that chart!
897. 7544
so is it 91l that will bring rain to se fl on sunday or just luck lol
Quoting Vlad959810:

There 's also BERTHA in 1996 and JOSE in 1999
and Jeanny in 2004
12z GFS finally picks up 17 sends it due north at 120 hrs
Quoting CANTTRUSTTHEM:
no matter where a storm develops or goes to they avoid florida like the plague they move away from florida even if they develop of the west or east coast of florida


God help me, I will respond with the proper answer to your silly statement...Guess you don't live in Florida? Guess you were not here for Francis, Jeanne AND Wilma??? Not to mention older, deadly hurricanes that have decimated Florida like, oh I don't know, oh yeah..ANDREW!
Thank you for your unscientific, not back by facts opinion. Everyone here is allowed one, but only one.
Looks like 91L should come in just south of here...Lets hope it doesn't develop into something strong and put me in the NE eyewall. :P

I have my doubts it will develop though.
Quoting sunlinepr:


Sunline ophelia ,in the last frame moving more w than Norh?

900. CitikatzSouthFL 12:23 PM EDT on September 24, 2011

look at its join date that will probably tell you something
Miami NWS Discussion

...NEAR RECORD HIGHS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EAST COAST
METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID WEST
UNITED STATES TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BE SOUTHWEST
TODAY KEEPING THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE OVER THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS...AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. SO THE
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING WILL BE OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

THE PWAT VALUES FROM THE MIA SOUNDING THIS MORNING WAS ALSO AROUND
2.3 TO 2.4 INCHES. THIS IS NEAR THE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
THE NORMAL OF 1.6 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO WILL ALSO ADD
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION, A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH ON THE SW
PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS AND ALSO IS GENERATING QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION. THIS
TROUGH WILL ALSO GET CAUGHT UP IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE
LARGE TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF THE CONTINENT AND THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH ALL MODELS (ALTHOUGH THE NAM TO A LESSER
EXTENT) SHOW THIS MOISTURE COMING ACROSS S FL ON SUNDAY. SO
CURRENT THINKING IS THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ON SUNDAY.
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:

Sunline, looking at the map, it looks like the only direction that Ophelia can go is west, then wsw over PR and under Cuba, then back up over possible Florida??? Am I reading this wrong? I mean, if she stays weak and the ridging above her does not catch her to shoot her wnw, then n, then ne? Your opinion and thoughts would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.


Sorry I went away for a while....

Yes it looks like it won't be able to escape N.... Maybe that's the trayectory spread that the models are presenting now...
Quoting will40:

900. CitikatzSouthFL 12:23 PM EDT on September 24, 2011

look at its join date that will probably tell you something
dont care if that character is brand new he has something there fl is protected by natural barrriers first the greater antillias theyve saved the state yearly from disasters second is the gulf stream many in the southern gulf as well just east of florida follow the gulf stream up and out. so there that character does have a point.
Could see 40% on 91L at 2Pm, but id give it an overall 60% of actually making it to Rina, though you can NEVER rule it out. There is some weak turning within the low, and and weak circulation could be atempting to form. It will be interesting to see what comes of it.
91L is sandwiched between dry air to its west and east, but it does have nice moist path to the north. If it remains small, it could gain some strength, but I wouldn't expect too much.

Quoting luigi18:


Sunline ophelia ,in the last frame moving more w than Norh?

It is, but it's supposed to start moving N... due to shear, I thought, it may leave the expected rains E of PR....

But looking at WU seems like rain will reach us....

Wow. What a difference a few hours makes. The east coast doesn't really need 91 on top of all the rain they've had lately.

Will be an interesting week!

906. islander101010 12:32 PM EDT on September 24, 2011


is a troll enough said and probably circumventing a ban
All active tropical entities on planet Earth in order from weakest to strongest:

91L.INVEST.



TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN:



TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W:



TROPICAL STORM NESAT:



TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA:



HURRICANE HILARY:


Quoting sunlinepr:

It is, but it's supposed to start moving N... due to shear, it may leave the expected rains E of PR....


Why they didn't change the conus or the projected path?
Quoting luigi18:


Why they didn't change the conus or the projected path?


This year, models have been shifting daily, specially with those sheared systems, that seem to be stationary... they should be updating it shortly...

Quoting sunlinepr:


This year, models have been shifting daily, specially with those sheared systems, that seem to be stationary... they should be updating it shortly...



Gracias! we will be watching!
Eastern North Carolina is getting just pounded by heavy rainfall right now.
Quoting wn1995:
Eastern North Carolina is getting just pounded by heavy rainfall right now.


You're telling me:

Quoting will40:
wish we could send the rain to Tex
So do I, only a trace here since June 22, temps are still around 100 also, besides mornings being cooler I have seen little change here since May. Too Hot and Too Dry, now No humidity at all.
I've not seen the sun in about a week now.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Could see 40% on 91L at 2Pm, but id give it an overall 60% of actually making it to Rina, though you can NEVER rule it out. There is some weak turning within the low, and and weak circulation could be atempting to form. It will be interesting to see what comes of it.


12z SHIPS didn't show much promise for 91L. Shows shear staying favorable for just the next 24 hours or so.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
So do I, only a trace here since June 22, temps are still around 100 also, besides mornings being cooler I have seen little change here since May. Too Hot and Too Dry, now No humidity at all.


i understand your concern and hope at least the heat will come down soon
Quoting extreme236:


12z SHIPS didn't show much promise for 91L. Shows shear staying favorable for just the next 24 hours or so.



still gonna be a wet one tho
Quoting will40:


i understand your concern and hope at least the heat will come down soon
126 straight days of at least 90, the old record was 104 days, next 7 to 10 days it should be over 90. Last Sept. we had 11 days in 80s and 2 in the 70s with lots of rain then 3rd week of Sept it stopped raining period then started getting warmer than normal to much above normal in temps. The last year 90 percent of my rain has fallen in 3 or 4 heavy showers that did not last long then in between these 3 or 4 heavy showers nothing. Unfortunately Texas does not have rainy periods, it is either too much rain or too little rain.
these are the kind of rains we had just before Floyd in 99 and we all up here know what the result of that was. Not saying we will get a Floyd later tho
Season Overview:
2011...

Numbers:
16 Named Storms(Philippe soon)(Could see Rina from 91L)
3 Hurricanes(Could go up with Ophelia, and Philippe)
2 Major Hurricanes(Could go up with Philippe,lol, Maybe)

ACE:
76.9

Deaths:
118

Damage(USD Billions):
>10,633.2

US Landfalls:
3 Landfalling Storms(Lee, Irene, Don)

Forecast for rest of the season.
91L could develop into Rina,

If no development of 91L,
OCTOBER:
Rina
Sean
Tammy

November:
Whitney
Alpha?