WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Ophelia to miss U.S.?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:33 AM GMT on September 11, 2005

The latest 18Z (2pm EDT) runs of the GFDL and GFS models are in, and both continue the trend we've been seeing the past day or so of taking Ophelia more and more north. Both of these models are joining the NOGAPS model in taking Ophelia just over or offshore of Cape Hatteras, NC. It is becoming inreasingly likely that Ophelia will deliver at worst a glancing blow to the Outer Banks of North Carolina, and spare the U.S. a direct hit.



Before we get too enthusiastic about this development, we need to look at one more cycle of model runs. The 00Z (8pm EDT) runs of all the models will finish up sometime after midnight tonight. These model runs should have a much higher than average reliability. They will use data from the NOAA high-altitude jet, which is flying a high-density data mission tonight. If the models all show a continued track for Ophelia past the Outer Banks and out to sea, we can have some modest confidence that Ophelia will pull her punch.

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a substantial amount of dry air getting sucked into Ophelia on her west side, weakening her. The 7:30pm EDT hurricane hunters mission found a 1 mb increase in pressure, a gap in the south side of the eyewall, and reduced flight level winds of 73 knots. Ophelia may have lost hurricane status again.

The latest GFDL model continues to forecast that she will fight off this dry air and attain Category 2 status. The upper-level outflow is improving, but there is still 10 - 15 knots of shear from upper-level westerly winds. Category 2 status still seems like a reasonable forecast, but Category 3 is looking increasingly unlikely.

Dr. Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

This is a transcript of an email I sent to Dr. Masters after he had responded to some of my questions about the models.


*********** Original message follows: ***********
Sent by StormJunkie at: 11:45 PM GMT on September 10, 2005


Dr. Masters,
Thanks for your feedback, did not give me a clue as to what she will do, but I geuss it is either just as hard for the pros sometimes, or for legal reasons you can not which I respect. Maybe some of both?lol.

Thanks Again.

SJ


FROM: JeffMasters FAVORITES BLOCKED
TO: StormJunkie
DATE: 2005-09-10 23:52:32 (11:52 PM GMT)
SUBJECT: Re: Thanks.

It's just as hard for the pros, we don't have enough data and don't understand enough about hurricanes to do more than make educated guesses.

Jeff

My pucker is starting to relax a little...still patient.
Also note even with the estensive data from the recon the BAMM still shows a W movement and we all know the BAMM is only good 12 to 36 hrs at best. This could be the begining of locking down a landfall. That Bamm tends to make me think a Georgetown to Wilmington track.
Well i am gonna make an educated guess then...its over..have a nice day Ophelia..bye bye...have fun with the sea life.
Ya'll do understand that the BAMM runs faster than the GFDL and GFS so she has all the new data that Jeff spoke of above. I am not sure why he did not mention this as it seems to be a key piece of the pie.
i dunno storm junkie. we will know what will happen with the next runs but i belive we will see a fish storm. just in my opinion but i really want to see the new gfdl and gfs rins with the data. i will be in the lobby as i am going to lie down so if u want to talk i will be there
The thing I remember is that during Jeanne the model consensus was consistently to the right, or to the north, of what really took place. I am still seeing strike probabilities for key west, marco island, apalachicola, miami and cedar key. Daytona is still 9% and Jacksonville is 10% If you add up all the probabilites on the FL east coast in cities more than 130 miles apart,[so the probability fields don't overlap] (Jax, Cocoa Beach, West Palm Beach, Marathon) you get a probability of landfall on the FL east coast of 26% That is not a trivial probability. So what if this ESE movement becomes SE, SSE and S and then SW for a good while, and the storm ends up cruising WSW under the ridge until it slams well down into the Florida Peninsula. With the 5 p.m. probababilities for Florida as high as they are, the NHC must consider this to be a real possibility.
So explain to me why this scenario is not possible :) Notice that I am not saying that I believe this will happen, or is even more than a remote possibility. I just what to know why it is unlikely, or whether in fact such a thing does have a decent chance of happening.
accuweather is pointing at a landfall between Charleston and Myrtle Beach...so either A they are once again trying to trump NHC or B they dont buy into the models as well or C they are just plain wrong
I am glad the storm may end up as a fish storm--I actually said that Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday nights--and then let myself get suckered into making a prediction for SC last night, removing my once chance to have a prediction come out right!
hey leftty at least youll get to watch some football tomorrow..lol..i cant wait for some games tomorrow..its like Christmas..lol..sorry off topic but oh well..
nobody is going to change that SC/NC senerio until the models come in later tonite.
Hi first time here, but have been watching you guys for some tine, I just wanted to say that I do not buy into the models all of a suddent taking it out to sea, just do not see this, I am in Raleigh and got to tell you that I believe it is coming in the SC/NC area and in between Raleigh/Wilson and out to sea again then to Long Island
St. Simmon,

I think that is unlikely, but I would also say that all of those movemenst you mentioned are possible. I just do not think they will persist long enough prior to a nortward motion of some sort to create a S Fla landfall. A North FLA landfall would not be as odd as it is not very far out of the NHC or Wunderground bubbles. GA is just a small target. I still think something is not right here though. Models hate loops. We must all wait for the models. I also think she will be making some critical movements during the blackout which is going to suck.
Does anyone have the BAMM model link? I believe that one is saying landfall, this is crazy, I have been a big weather geek and have been very interested about the SE states hit
im sticking with a NC hit still i think the new BAMM may have well found its range,, cant wait for the new modles,, i just dont buy this sudden jump of hundreds of miles today when the strom barley moved and the enviroment did not change that much,, it just seems way to far of i move to me
Dash, I think A and B are correct, but I also can't say they would trump the NHC as that is still well with in that giant bubble they and the Wunderground have.
yeah weatherguy, but i was looking forward to the cane lol. still need the next model runs but we will see
Pann, the bamm is in the above picture. Yello line. It does not show landfall, but should not be expected to as it is only a shortterm/range forcast.
I am agreeing with lowpressure here and leftyy, dont drop out of the can hunt yet! I think it is coming for NC, it is just too odd that the shift is 200 mi to the left
Hey, Lefty, You are no rooting for Bastardi huh?
Sorry again no=now.
well leftyy maybe somehow it could skirt the coast and make it close to Va..that way you dont have to go too far and still watch the game..lol..
Some 0Z models...Link..SHIPS does not strengthen storm..but keeps it around 70 kts.
ok I'm back --- Now I have been looking at all the info that has been done over the last 8 hrs and to me I still think that it will move south (how far not sure) then west around the High Pressure, even maybe towards FL by mid next week... It looks like the big O that we all have stated yesterday...


Just my thoughts thats all...
Longitude wise it is just about getting east of Hatteras now. It still appears to be moving east, maybe slightly slowing.
NHC still has it heading in to Wilmington and throught the easter part even after the new 8pm models, looks like they do not buy in either!
lol what is bastardi saying now
Pucker-up and kiss Ophelia goodbye!!! Good riddance!!
thery only update the forcast at the full advisories so u won't see a change till 11pm
Nothing will change until they get the new data from the recon to plug into the models.
they already have the data and the 8pm model runs are running as we speak. it takes 5 hrs torun the gfs and the gfdl so u won't see the models out till 1am well after the 11pm advisory. they will have to move the track due to the model runs today but how far i dunno. the come will be a big one i know that much
Boy, this blog will surely slow down after Ophelia's exit as I don't see anything even close to developing for a while. Anyone else have a different take?
if that westerly shear and dry air entrainment from the west doesnt let up, Ophelia will not be a hurricane tomorrow evening.
Kill it is not quite east of Hatteras, but it is S of Savannah latitude wise. And I think it is moving a little furter south of Savannah. Maybe? She has really moved very little in the past three hours. I think convection may be throwing people off a little, but if you toggle the first and last image in the floater I think you will see that the SW of the eye is completly exposed and if you look at the first frame where the convection is still around the eye it looks to be pretty much in the same place. Hard to determine any movement at this time. Maybe S maybe E maybe N, but not any where fast.
these are good signs, we dont need anymore hits to the usa. however check out the nasty cells in miami/fort lauderdale. news is stating a pair of tornadoes going over miami beach
I wonder how many posts there would have been in Jeff's blog if this had been a season like 1977 when the first storm wasn't named until August 30th.
the sky is lighting up down here like the 4th of july

yeah i got one what move the dry aire out of the storm lol
Dr. Jeff said it may have lost hurricane status in his last post
Bastardi is saying pretty close to Georgetown. I think the Bamm may have said more with that last data dump with the upper air recon then anything. Also the fact that the error of margin, ie bubble/cones, are HUGE. Most keep Savannah in the cone. And have done so even with the model runs today.
Stormjunkie,

What do you thing of the odds of it hitting Nc and going through Raleigh
storm a bouy located just to the north of the stor at 32.3n and 75.3 west has winds comming from the e. they were se and ne so a lilte ese motion i suspect

hey all i do not want a fish storm or a no show i want a landfall what move the dry aire out of the storm
Link Miami Radar
Good point Lefty, but I think she is stopped if not drifting S and some what E. Penn I think a more likely track would be what Bastardi is saying, which would still take her up to the tri county area.
when did he come up with that forcast lol
all these storms are converging on the hollywood area, right over my house. my girlfriend and son are freakin out more then when katrina was coming through
Storm Junkie- I see what you mean on the floater. I hadn't looked at that. I have been watching the water vapor image link that Steve posted on his blog and it sure looks a little farther east on that. The floater is IR enhanced measuring cloud temps right?
Cornflake.

I see no nado's but you just may see some Hail.

That's just Florida Evenin.

That happens in St Pete, Clearwater Tampa just about everyday in the Summer.

Stay inside away from the Windoz ( Microsoft Joke)

Do not touch any fawcets & stay off the phone when it's real bad.
8888888899,

I agree, we need a little excitement in NC, not like NO though, just a little
I think he is putting stock in the Bamms shortrange ability with the new data. So I would geuss it was not too long ago, but he may have not shifted his track all day.
hillsboro i agree, the nados were about an half hour ago, miami beach is still under a nado warning, ive seen numerous storms but this one is a little worse then any ones in recent memory. the winds are going in different directions
hey all i do not want a fish storm or a no show i want a landfall what move the dry aire out of the storm
ejstrick, yes I think there will be a storm soon down by the Islands at 10par line. That is a topical wave that just might be our next storm to talk about... Remember we are only half way thru the season and they say we may have 5 more storms by the end of this season...
U.S. Senator Rick Santorum is saying that the National Weather Service didn't issue a sufficient warning on Katrina and is using this charge for his bill to benefit privatized weather services.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/09/AR2005090901930.html

Today's Washington Post
Looking at the water vapor link from Steve's blog it almost seems as if the core of the high pressure and subsidence is dropping south over GA and AL. Does that mean that the high pressure ridge may move south of Ophelia rather than to the north, or am I totally misinterpreting the images?
Taco, I think they said 5 more in Sept and 3 in Oct? Can't quite remeber though.
here is the new vortex. pressure up to 978 mb but she is drifting ese very slowly

URNT12 KNHC 110127
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/01:11:10Z
B. 31 deg 47 min N
075 deg 47 min W
C. 700 mb 2908 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 138 deg 076 kt
G. 041 deg 023 nm
H. 978 mb
I. 7 C/ 3049 m
J. 14 C/ 3048 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 1416A OPHELIA OB 08
MAX FL WIND 76 KT NE QUAD 01:04:40 Z
EYEWALL PRESENTATION IS POOR, ENTIRELY OPEN S FROM 080-270.

what ur seeoing is the cold dry air pushed down from canada by the ridge and the trogh. the ridge is cenetred around arkansas and another is cenetred in ontario,canada by ny stste
I think there is still High to the N St, but if that is a high over GA and Ala, She would move in between the two or stall if there is not a weakness for her to move in to then out to sea. This is just a geuss as I have been killing myself to learn how to read WV and have not gotten much better.
then there is a ridge east of ophelia south of the remenants of nate
62. Peff
Evenning folks. Glad to see you're still all here and the BLOGPOLICE iappears to have left. I was just looking at the WV loop and was noticing that the 'blob' of thunderstorms south of Ophelia seems to be getting drawn into her...if she is indeed drifting slightly SE, is ther a chance that these could combine?
Cornflake

It is moving offshore towards the Bahamas. Shoud pass in about 30 Min. Just stay inside. If anyone is frightened go to the center of the house in a room without windows, A closet/ bathroom..

I see a Severe Storm warning bu no Tornado warning. Did you get a Tornado warning on TV? If so it should say where it is & where its headig & when
Sorry last post was to Simmon. And Lefty feel free to correct me if I am worng about what I said.
red is dry air. now while a ridge is there that is not the core of the ridge. thats just some really dry air. if you look at the clouds streaming from the west coast up into canada, se thru the great lakes and ne thru va out to sea. where u see the clouds streaming norrth is the western eadge of the ridge, where u see the clouds sinfking south is the eastern side of the ridge . to locate a area of high pressure u need to look at the clouds and the direction they move. clockwise around a high and counterclockwise around a low.
what why is ese
67. Peff
888888...From what I have gathered over the past few days, you live on the west coast....Do you realize that people lose their property and often their lives when these things make landfall? It's not nice to desire a landfall!
the tornados were reported coming through bayfront, port of miami area and heading nw towards hialeah area, the tornado warning was issued by nhc and expired at 935pm. the lightning has died down a bit, but the rainfall is coming down by the buckets
Thanks Guys for helping the guy that was scared in Miami/Hollywood. I am sure your ' Cane would have run away while you helped him calm down.

Sorry to interrupt!

:)
The water vapor loop at www.esl.lsu.edu shows the big cloud of dry air to the west of the storm is working it's way south towards the gulf of Mexico. It looks like the big contributer of dry air is leaving.
I think you are right Stormjunkie, they did say 5 more in Sept and 3 in Oct so we do have a long time to go...
what way is ese ?
OK stay on the TV local station. You are alert & knew what was happening so you are prepared.

If you are not an all year resident for some time I understand your concern. These storms get as bad as a short lived hurricane & if you did get a Waterspout/ Gustando they can be damaging & dangerous.

When they are serious they usually follow them on TV.

Stay tuned. The rain can be very hard, but it just helps the grass if you are not near a river that floods.

yes that blob of dry air was forced south out of canada by the ridge and trogh. the ridge is cenetred near arkansas and what it does will determine landfall if at all
How the hell can you have a Hurricane Stan, that is just not scary at all.
stan the man
if it is going SE could it do a new loop then go back to FL?
88889gg, If you look at a clock face and 12=north, 3=east, 6=south, and 9=west then 4=east southeast... That is the best way to see it...
lobby lefty?
lefty,,if i am not mistaking the data lodgic built into the forecasting modles contains a small percentage of past storm history.. and if i am right about this, the model trends during the day may make some sence.. at night we get this new data dump of todays conditions put into the models and they all go back south,, at least the last few days,, then as the runs go by they go back north and east,, well this makes sence because the climo. track of a strom in the area of this one is to take it out to sea when it is moving north around to east,, so as the day goes on and the data gets old more of that climo. may be getting into the solution when at night the hard data overrides it because the atmosphere is diffrent for this storm than climo. so they override climo. and see the atmosphere for what it is today better even thought i know the climo. percent dosent change,,, this was just me trying to find an awnser the the model flip flop , not saying im right.. it would also explain all of the recent trouble with the "loop" because that is not normal either,,, everyone give me imput even if yo complety disagree....
8889 pick a spot on the map of the east coast of va or in the atlantic. there u got it. thats as good as i could tell u she will hit right now
lol i meant east coast of the us or any place in the atlantic
hillsborough im a 18 yr resident of sfla, other then a few hurricanes and freak storms, this a little stronger then ive seen for a long time, most of the nasty storms here stay over the glades western broward, very rare to get them over the metro areas this bad
lobby
low u could be right. right now i am lost on anything lol. she will do what she wants to lol sucks i don't know where she is going and i can't trust the models but i can't ignore them
i know your used to them up in tpa area, my parents live in wesley chapel and they get them every day.
Low you should go back and read my post in the previous blog about the models and ants. It is a long post around 6 or so. Which would be around 10 UTC give or take an hr.

I also think that one of the two scenarios could be right. I am beginning to think the day time solution has just as much a chance as the data dump runs.
OK Cornflake. Is it any better.

BTW you have email
dos any one no if she will do a new loop?
the lightening has died down, but the rain is coming down pretty hard. havent had sat tv for a half hour so far! But other then that my son is calmed down, just the lightening was getting out of hand, there was a couple shots that had to hit neighbors houses or trees within blocks of me.
Lowpressure,
The only thing I disagree with is the loop ,because we have storms make loops in years past Ivan made a giant loop and hit TX last year but other than that... Thats it and you are good...
yes i do see a little more SE or ESE what dos that mean for the usa?
storm,, i did read you post today about the ants,, and i have been watching them here because of the story i herd about katrina,, and although i do believe animals may have some kind of weird insight,, here i have ants going nuts building what looks like a dirt ack, the groundhogs which i have never had her have torn up my whole front yard and the little lizards are hanging out by the roof and on the side of the house even at night,, also i hear no frogs or bugs tonight evcept for a few loners and that is very strange... i live in NC 45 miles north of wilmington right on the coast,, so im not sure about nature today,, maybee they r telling us it will be a 250 mile wide storm and hit us both...lol we shall see.. i only wish i had a clue..lol
Jeanne looped
OK that's it I'm getting my flashlight and going out to find some ants
just caught the end of Jim Kocet from accuweather on geraldo UGH, but basically he showed the tracks of Fran Bertha and Floyd in NC and basically said that landfall between Charleston and Cape Hatteras was likely unless the high were to slide east very quickly leaving Ophelia stationary or drifting N
i got ya all about the loop i was just saying its not normal for most stroms and i was talking about the climo. for only the east coast,, its diffrent all over,, however these are all just guess and i just wanted to see what you all thought,, we will see but thanks for the responces from everyone, im trying to learn more and sometimes you cant rely on just a degree for info you have to talk to normal people like the good people that r on here...
we should start an ant mound hight blog...lol
we dont ne no stinking modles..lol
sorry all,, if i am posting to much just tell me to shut upp.. i have had a few and i can talk for hours now..lol
Only 150 mile spread Low especially if you are talking about a N or NNE movement in to the coaast from S of Chas to Georgetown area.
102. OBXER
Killdevil kinda funny but yesterday i got eaten up by fire ants.
lmao Low, O has driven me to have several tonight myself. Johnie Walker is my friend.lol.
storm,, cool man i thought we were farther, well that makes sence than,, in realality we could but get something. we will see but i do agree with you guys we will have to wait on the 00Z modles,, i just wanted to throw all that out for conversation.. i am in no position to make my own predictions ill leave that to you and lefy, and a couple others..
I have an idea that O is going to do a very long slow deliberated loop.... Stay tuned.... Next forecast in about a month....
here u go sj

Link
still kinda sorta holding our breath....i love watching these puppies but having one rightoutside sucks large...it's breezy here right now...i vote out to sea..
Hey y'all, I've been reading all your comments and tend to agree that it is gonna be very fickle in its track and thought it might drift south some eventually before making it back towards the coast....I am in SC in Colleton county
Hey all ,I am back from my 2 day absence.
Hey man i beleive in that ant stuff. I just went out looking and couldn't find one, not one. Not sure what that means. Last night I was cooking on the barbeque and a praying mantis got on me and came into the house with me and I didn't know it. He's still in here somewhere. Not sure what that means either. Oh well there is still alot we don't know about the unknown. I'll keep my head up though.
Dawgfan, That is very LOW. Did you beat up kids
smaller than you in school?
If that high pressure system was a little stronger this thing would have BEEN over with....
yes when i went to school i did ride a bus why?
After much reluctance, anticipation, and observations, I am making a forecast track (yes lefty, you were right about me changing my track away from Florida, but I wasn't convinced until I saw the heights over the US, combined with the further NE motion than I expected.)
116. OBXER
Killdevil man did i find the ants they tore my foot up and with the mantis thing kinda weird but this evening i was helping a friend tie a boat up and there was one on the dock.Are the insects getting strange or are we all going batty?
Hurricane 79 I am with bated breath in eager anticipation of your forecast. whatayagot? The ants didn't pan out.
So how far N 79? and Good to see you, me and lefty thought you might a fallen off a cliff.
lefty fallen off a cliff ah ah ah ah that is funny lol
79 what is your forecast before the new advisory and discussion come out?
the new NHC track is out they went farther north but not by much
Maybe it's headed to South Florida..... I followed a line of ants this evening all around my house and finally to my sliding door. Perhaps they were trying to come in to escape an upcoming storm.... or maybe it was the oreo on the floor :)

BTW: pretty severe lighting tonight in North Broward county. I've been down here a long time and it seems like the lightning is much more impressive this year.
looks to come on shore around jacksonville nc, well thats where i live
Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 19


Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 10, 2005



satellite imagery during the evening shows that the low-level center
of Ophelia has become partially exposed on the western edge of the
convection. Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter
aircraft indicate a central pressure of 977-978 mb and an eyewall
open in the south semicircle. Maximum flight-level winds at 700 mb
are 79 kt in the southwest quadrant...while eyewall dropsondes in
the southeast and northeast quadrants indicated 60-65 kt surface
winds. Since the aircraft data is essentially identical to the
previous flight...the initial intensity remains 70 kt.
Ophelia has drifted a little to the east-northeast over the past 6
hr but is now nearly stationary. Water vapor imagery indicates
large mid/upper-level ridges centered over western Tennessee and
near 25n57w...with Ophelia in between. The latest large-scale
model runs forecast this combination to keep Ophelia nearly
stationary for the next 2-3 days...followed by a slow generally
northward motion as the U. S. Ridge shifts eastward into the
altantic. The guidance is still well spread...with the left
outliers of the GFDN and the Canadian calling for landfall in South
Carolina and the right outliers of the GFS and GFDL calling for the
storm to pass east of Cape Hatteras. The new forecast track is
shifted a little to the right and a little slower than the previous
package...and is on the left side of the main envelope of guidance.
The new track has a small loop in the first 24-36 hr...as much of
the guidance suggests that Ophelia will drift southward during part
of that time.
Ophelia continues to experience light to moderate westerly shear...
and water vapor imagery shows abundant dry air west of the cyclone.
These have probably eroded the convective structure to some degree.
However...the largest factor controlling the intensity is likely to
be sea surface temperatures and upwelling of cold water underneath
the slow-moving storm. NOAA buoy 41002 located northeast of the
center is reporting an SST of 27.2c...and a drifting buoy south of
the center is reporting 24.4c...down almost 3c from before Ophelia
passed over it. Elsewhere in the area...SSTs are between 27-28c
except in the relatively narrow Gulf Stream. Should Ophelia move
as slowly as forecast...it may upwell enough cold water to suppress
development. The GFDL...SHIPS...and superensemble all show a
little strengthening through 30 hr...and the intensity forecast
follows suit. However...those models all forecast weakening after
36-48 hr. The intensity forecast will not yet follow that
scenario...but it is a distinct possibility.
The Hurricane Watch remains in effect for portions of the southeast
U. S. Coast with no changes at this time. If Ophelia is to begin a
track like that of the GFDN or Canadian toward South Carolina...it
should happen within the next 24-36 hr. Therefore...it is too
early to sound an all clear for any part of the area currently
under the Hurricane Watch.
Forecaster Beven

yeah they shifted it due to the gfdl and gfs shifting north but they fill any where from sc or va beach is still likely. they have no clue at all. they model runs due out in 2-3 hrs should clear the whole mess up. i hope
Here is my new track map: Link
OBXER- Back to my praying mantis. I felt something land on my semi bald head and couldn't really inspect, I thought it was a bat at first but all my attention was focused on the fully involved conflagaration on the grill. I swatted at it and I thought it was gone but he hung on and came into the house with me. Last I saw him he was cringing behind the venetian blind. I said ah you can stay little buddy. Now I'm getting a little worried that I can't find him and why so I'm heading up to the attic. If he's up there I may evacuate.
well the NHC discussion certanly does not take a fish storm and run with it, they didnt even extend the watch north for the outer banks of NC,,
where u been 79. been to long. i was all packed to rool put to sc with storm junkie tonight and now i don't know where i amgoing tomeet the storm lol
130. OBXER
Killdevil take an ax with you in case you get stuck lmao
they are waiting for the recon models and i think they expect a shift back to the east but not as far aslast night. thats my only thought on it, plus if it was a obx landfall it would be 3-4 days out so they have time
132. OBXER
Low i had a full hotel at 3 pm and now i have an empty one its really going to suck if this thing stalls or the evac was called in haste.
Drive to a town called Atlantic Beach, in the cape near Beaufort, NC. Atlantic Beach has some decent hotels, and some fun things to do before the storm hits.
I guess I"ll have to stay up till they crunch the numbers from the recon. What are they using a Commodore 64?
Tay in Fred.. Lefty it's coming to you
maybe. my point wasnow i have no idea where she is going lol. i thought we had thias thing down after the model runs last night
i cant wait for the 00Z modles so we can get back to some forecasting landfall points insted of the fish storm,,, thats to say even if they sift back but the trens says tey will.i think the biggest factor to watch if they do shift back is how far because every shift back has still resulted in a farther north solution
maybe Atari is more like it
I made my loop larger than the NHC, because the ridge over the US is stronger than the ridge SE of Ophelia, allowing her to push further South than Ophelia is expected to go. But, since the US ridge is moving faster than I thought, the steering currents will become South and then Southeast by midweek and will fling Ophelia across the Outer banks, starting near,......Morehead City (I think the spelling is right), Atlantic Bch., by Wednesday afternoon
140. OBXER
Killdevil the way it sounds i think the party at Quags might end up being a pre hurricane party.
Woe is me.
Lefty, comments on my track?? :Link
143. OBXER
79 for the sake of the Outer Banks i hope you are wrong on this one
144. OBXER
Killdevil whats th wind in your neck of the woods it seems to have died down some here.It was 20 to 30 with gusts to 41 but down by 10mph or so now.
79 what is your forecast for the strength as it approaches on Wednesday?
79 like itold some one earlier. right now just pick a point on the east coast and its a good as anything i could do right now. lol. iwill finialise my plans when the models come out to night. was just checking wiht the hotels in beaufort and seems like a good bet for what i will do
I actually like 79's track better than the NHC track--it seems to me that when the ridge centered in TN heads by Ophelia to the north, the storm should be steered to the west--and I think that as the ridge approaches, Ophelia will drop more than 0.1 degree to the south. If the storm is heading south after hitting NC and looping again out in the Atlantic next weekend, Ophelia will get my vote as the most annoying storm since Ginny in 1963.
It's gusty here out of the NE. It's hard to tell here since I'm fairly sheilded from the wind but Duck Pier has it at 25 NE. Gusty though. My anemometer says 16-20 but that fits for here if it's 25. Barometer is 1023 mb up from a low this afternoon of 1019mb
Ophelia will not be a major storm for NC. at most, she will have winds of 90MPH. There is a lot of dry air out there, and some shear out there too.
perfect kinda storm to chase lol
I just posted my discussion at my blog if anyone wants to read it hurricane79
for those not familiar with Ginny, this is the track:
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at196308.asp
I agree on it being the perfect storm to chase, not too strong, not weak, evasive. The only problem is if that slight chance happens where she never hits... Just have to stand there and be thankful it spared everyone.
hey Dawgfan,

My wife told me I need the short Bus because I am on here talking about this storm all the time... as for anything else I still say the Loop and maybe Fl late next week...

MY THOUGHTS ONLY...
yeah, i might not chase her unless i am sure where she is going to hit, or betetr yet sure she will hit lol
If you have people who read this blog believing that nothing bad will happen, your irresponsibility is frightening. There are people who read this blog who really do not understand that these are just your opinions.
You are entitled to those opinions, but PLEASE clarify what you say, especially if it involves the safety of others.
when can we expect the next model results?

been studying this storm so hard, my head is about to explode! LOL

at this point i wouldnt be suprised if it hit myrtle beach (where i live), or missed the entire east coast!

this definately has been a trickey forecast.

it appears to me from the latest radar, to be DRIFTING westward.

screw it, bed time for me! ;)
the next modelswill be out ina hour and a half or so. those are the models we are waiting to see.
Lefty, if you are driving from any direction, you could always pick Raleigh as a night over location in a couple of days. This cant hurt. Then, when you wake up, check the forecast,blog, models, satellite, anything else. From Raleigh, you can hit up Charleston in 4 hours, or the Outer Banks in 5 hours. This way you can be near the landfall location the night before and drive there the day of,..or the day before if you're really confident.
OPHELIA HAS DRIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE PAST 6
HR BUT IS NOW NEARLY STATIONARY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGES CENTERED OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE AND
NEAR 25N57W...WITH OPHELIA IN BETWEEN. THE LATEST LARGE-SCALE
MODEL RUNS FORECAST THIS COMBINATION TO KEEP OPHELIA NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW GENERALLY
NORTHWARD MOTION AS THE U. S. RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
ALTANTIC. THE GUIDANCE IS STILL WELL SPREAD...WITH THE LEFT
OUTLIERS OF THE GFDN AND THE CANADIAN CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTH
CAROLINA AND THE RIGHT OUTLIERS OF THE GFS AND GFDL CALLING FOR THE
STORM TO PASS EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS
. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...AND IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE MAIN ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE.
THE NEW TRACK HAS A SMALL LOOP IN THE FIRST 24-36 HR...AS MUCH OF
THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OPHELIA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD DURING PART
OF THAT TIME.


THE HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
U. S. COAST WITH NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. IF OPHELIA IS TO BEGIN A
TRACK LIKE THAT OF THE GFDN OR CANADIAN TOWARD SOUTH CAROLINA...IT
SHOULD HAPPEN WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HR.
THEREFORE...IT IS TOO
EARLY TO SOUND AN ALL CLEAR FOR ANY PART OF THE AREA CURRENTLY
UNDER THE HURRICANE WATCH.


hopefully the 0z models will settle this.

Everyone, Goodnight.
towlady, please coopy and paste an example for this, and if I was at fault I will correct it.
yeah been thinking of that as well 79. i was more of joking about if she will hit cause i am just as sure she could not make landfall that i am she will hit sc lol
It looks like she has parked it right over the Gulf Stream snorting Sargasso weed.
165. OBXER
Towlady that is why they have evacuations and if it was me who offended you im sorry but living where i do this might be the only time in the next few days to lighten things up a little bit.
166. OBXER
Killdevil is this starting to look like another Dennis?
79
Ophelia will not be a major storm for NC. at most, she will have winds of 90MPH. There is a lot of dry air out there, and some shear out there too.

We have been talking to a lady in the Carolinas who lives
in a Cat 1 evac zone. Has a special needs child.
She is questioning the need to leave. If there is one person thinking that way, how many more are there lurking?
Please just be careful how you present your opinions.
Thanks.
007- Is that from the NWS or NHC and what time? STORMTOP used the caps thing for his own forecasts and it is confusing. Please add where these reports come from, thanks
OBXER, you did not offend, nor did 79. Have fun, enjoy the weather. That is what we are here for. Just please remember that not everyone who reads here knows the difference between opinion and fact.

I'm done.
Bye
was hurrican Dennis a cat 3 or a cat 4 at landfall
OBXER- it sure is. It would be sweet if it sat there for awile, the wind went offshore then it kept going (for an old surfer)...dreaming
towlady this is a blog. people need tolisten to their local authorities and the nhc for their decisions on whether they shiuld leave or what not. if they use this blog for any purpose other thana discussion they are dumb
good evening stormj. Models have REALLY shifted eh? From 24 hours ago I mean. What are thinking now as far as track? I meant to ask you earlier.
stormchaser77, I agree that the NHC and models have been everywhere. That is one of the main reasons that I have only chosen 2 different landfall spots for Ophelia ths far. I started with Daytona 5 days ago and changed it today to Atlantic Beach, NC. This system is one where nobody should make quick changes, or it will cause others to panic all along the Coast. Since it is still at least 3 to 4 days away, no conclusions should have bee drawn, even until tomorrow. ( I included a hit on the Coast both times too, but, only due to time contraints) Itry to make at least a 4 day forecast.
Tow, you have to understand... there a different issues there. I live in a tornado-prone area. I have a two small children. I also have a basement, we use it frequently when the warnings go up because we take them seriously. But, that doesn't stop storm chasers from chasing tornados, nor should it. Tornados (and hurricanes) are fascinating phenomena and interest alot of people. That's a different issue from preparedness (or lack thereof).
177. OBXER
Killdevil i might have a really good indicator of whether or not the navy thinks this thing is coming our way.We have a navy research vessel at the ferry dock in the harbor right now looking for the sub alligator off shore of us and if she leaves then it might not look to good for us.
wehat he posted was from the nhc 11pm discussion. here is a link


Link
another wild card to be played, Opheia appears to be on the eastern side of the gulf stream. if the storm moves 50-100 miles the the west, the gulf stream could provide extra energy for strengthening, and possible slightly alter the track.

just another variable to throw into the many we have already! LOL
sorry 88888888899 but I can't remember what I had for breakfast this morning. I'm sure someone here can answer you though.
Towlady and all others, please not that the future is NEVER fact, it is only opinion. It is your personal choice to decide what weight to put on the opinions you read.
lefty. You getting ready to chase?
i am packed and ready to go. but where to go lol. she might not evebn make landfall if u belive the models
I here ya. This one is a bear to figure out long term!
hey lefty if you see jim tell him i said hi and be safe
Towlady,
If we have been saying something wrong then sorry about that too. But I do want to say If it is a Tropical Storm or a hurricane she should leave, there is nothing wrong in that and the best way is the safe way... If it is 90mph or 60 there is some kind of damage and no reason to think other wise. I left for Ivan and stayed for Katrina and I wish I had a left for both... I will not ever do it again , when they come I'm gone that simple.
worse part is some reason the gfs is delayed so it will be 200am befor we get that run out at the earliest uuuuggggghhhhh!!!!! lol
i agree with lefy, this is a BLOG taking your evac plans from here would be the same as asking some random hero on the side of the road,, not that their arnt people here that are good at forecast but this is discussion and ideas not fact.. that is why i do not issue advisories for the public,, because you should not listen to me that is what gov. officials are for and they make that blatently clear all the time
189. OBXER
Lefty i think im ready to trade jobs with you.I can take off on a whim sometimes but im self employed man how do you do it?
towlady that was not meant at all to be rude if it sounded like that...im sorry, i just cant believe somebody would ignore officials and come here to save their lives
Lefty, as far as I know the GFS can bee seen by midnight.
lefty the gfs is delayed because the wonderful nam i about halfway thru, i dont even see why they use the nam, it has ophelia going into GA and the high centered over the NC/VA border which gave me a good laugh
Yea OBXER that Navy boat will scoot for sure. Unfortunately I don't think they know anymore than any one else or I would hope they would tell us. Is the Alligator the civil war sub I read about they are looking for? I'm an old bubblehead myself.
I have some advice for all you hurricane chasers. If you find yourself in your car near the right front quadrant of the hurricane and you hear or see a tornado headed your way, bend over and place your head between your legs and kiss your butt goodbye.
Thank you taco.
Sadly, not everyone thinks that way. No one WANTS to leave home when a storm comes. Wishful thinking can easily be influenced by the opinions of amateurs on a blog like this.
I would leave. Most people would leave. But it only takes one person being influenced into making a decision that causes injury or death, to be one person too many..
Goodnight to you all.
79 it is delayed and so 12-30-100 befor we can see the first 3 days and 200am by time she will be done. the delay will be an hour by looking at the nams delay
LOL I don't want to trade jobs with you Lefty! I've two litle ones and I feel guilty going off to work and abandoning the wife to 'em.
199. OBXER
Killdevil yeah thats the one they took mag readings last year and i guess used the NHC computer to input the ifo because they now have the area narrowed down enough to send a unmaned submersible down to do a grid search.It was supposed to happen this week so i guess that has been postponed.
We all care about each other here on the underground so please be careful!

As no one truly knows what HURRICANE Ophelia is going to do we all MUST STAY VIGILANT & prepare for the worst! !!!

Do NOT make any plans based on amateur posts on this BLOG. (Other than Dr. Masters)

Remember for those who live in low lying areas or in mobile or manufactured homes.. Hotels are occupied by refugees from the Gulf coast so your regular may be not available.
(DO NOT WAIT TO SEE FLOOD WATER TO DECIDE TO LEAVE)This will also cause more traffic as we scramble to find a safe place to stay. Get provisions early & avoid the rush & empty shelves. Don't for get to fill some water bottles 3/4 full & freeze them as they will help keep you fridge cold longer & then become drinking water that's actually cold. Thanks for your attention Bloggers!

Stay safe & enjoy the weatherUnderground

TRULY... anyone reading this in the potential land-fall areas , or anywhere close.
Please PREPARE NOW.

Thanks
202. OBXER
Ok Lefty i take that back im allergic to kids kinda puts a damper on my mobility
Hillsboro Bay, I would like to respectfully remind you that there are other Meteorologists in the Blog, even more that are lurking, that have forecasts and posts beyond the Amateur level. There are more than one member of the American Meteorological Society Here. Thanks
I have to say towlady has a good point. When I give an opinion I try to add that I am an amateur and it thats all it is - an opinion. Lefty has been good with that sort of thing although I think he is an expert. Who knows who reads this blog. Katrina was a good example. STORMTOP and his caps made himself look like some kind of official. Like it or not I think it's important to clarify opinion vs a quote from an official agency or expert. Desperate people getting ready to run for their lives is no joke or ego trip.
hey lefty this is a weather blog not a talk about family and car blog k
Oh man. I drove all the way down to Topsail Island to board up the beach house and I've had no info. about the storm since about 4pm and now I find out it's not coming inland?

Arrgggggh.

When I left my house this afternoon for the drive down it was coming inland to Wilmington NC it looked like.

Well, that'll teach me! *grin*



208. OBXER
Wow some people really feel its their responsibility to make sure you dont do what they think is stupid.All i can say is being in a hurricane is one hell of an experience and if you have half a brain and want to chase one more power to ya.
its weair up here cause i live in a small town in our suburbs so i hve to serve a whole month. i have to show up each morning and they will send us home if not needed. when my wife did it the cases always got delayed so she did'nt even get a chance to be interviewed. its crazy. maybe it will be some high profile case and i can right a book on it to afford to chase more storms lol
210. iyou
8888etc. - Hurricane Dennis was a Cat. 3 at landfall.
yeah i feel u on that kill
well give us your thought on the weather ten TUFFMUFIN,, where is it going
so what do you all think on this hurrican will it be a cat 2 will it be a cat 3 will it be a fish storm or a no show is the dry aire out of the storm yet and when is the next update on it?
Well if you get a book deal, put me down for a signed copy Anyone get the new gfs YET?
Hello everyone. While we're waiting for the new models, interesting animal actions here in Myrtle Beach today. My daughter's pet rabbit was trying to dig a hole in here cage all day and her cat was perched high up in a shelf in the garage! Very atypical for the cat to do that.
Maybe there should be a flag for education to determine expertise forecasts from a random hope or guess, and at the same time, if there were not experienced forecasters in the very polular blog, then there would be anarchy. Consider people such as Lefty, myself, and a few others, as order keepers.
every time i check the gfs the delayed time goes up. first it was 30 mins now its 60 mins and parts of the nam ar 2-3hrs delayed. man we need these models more than nay others and this is what happens wow
Interesting Vertical. I'm trying to remember if there were anecdotal animal stories before Kat hit...
the gfs could be as late as 2-3 hrs at this point
Lefty, I was not around earlier today to see if they ran aircraft into the steering currents aound Ophelia.. If they did, then it would take more time for the data to assimilate into the computer.
Obxer - I agree with you completely. "If you have half a brain and want to chase one, more power to ya."
222. OBXER
Goodnight everyone i havta get some sleep because i think i will have a busy day tomorrow check you guys in the AM.
Haven't looked for ants but one more animal anectodote...yesterday about 6 pm or so, there were a line of birds in perfect formation flying south to north. In my 16 years here i have never seen so many in a line like thath!
for all of you cantore theorists TWC just said he will be on the NC coast tomorrow but didnt reveal where, Jeff Morrow just reported from Wrightsville Beach
79 they have done it every night this week. thats the problem with the tracks. they shift north all day and than when the recon models came oput they were all back to a mid sc landfall. which is why even the nhc is anxiuos to see these models casue they flew recon again, but it has not been delayed all week even though they had recon to input in those models. theres a problem with the computer is what i am thinking. but i understand what ur saying but i had the gfs by 1230 this whole week
226. OBXER
Okay dawg you took that out of context what i meant is that if you can take care of yourself and want to chase one have at it no harm no foul. Again Goodnight
227. Peff
I heard that there were very few animal casualties in the Tsunami last december...most of the animals went up into the hills before it arrived.... Where's doctor dolittle when you need him??

The models from the same cluster are out now, the NGM, and the NAM. Now that both are out, we should see it starting in about 20 min/
Problem is, if they're reacting to the presence of Ophelia, well we all know she's there. But God only knows where she's GOING...
I hope we get some definitive info soon. I feel like the other lady who said her head was going to explode! I am def an amateur but for the life of me I can not understand all the models veering O out to sea with the forecasted high.
hurricane 79 with all due respect after spending a lot of time here it becomes clear who knows what they are talking about and who doesn't . Everyone is anonymous here so if you are an expert you should go to work for the NWS the NHC WU or similar. Until that happens you are not a professional in the true sense of the word. This blog is what it is, a place to discuss the weather and learn, nothing more, nothing less. I have been inspired, maybe addicted from what I have been learning here. Don't spoil it.
The SW shear is lessening over Ophelias as her outlow improves.
I used to have a girlfriend who's outflow inproved when the shear lessened. ;-)
hey kill, relax 79 know his stuff man. i respect his opinion on what he thinks like he does mine. its all good people play nice
Killdevilmax, as a matter of fact I do have a degree in Meteorology and I am a member of the AMS. I own and operate weather pages that have over 500K hits a year. This is my profession.
No lefty you missed my point. Sure 79 is one of the best here. My point is no one knows the difference because of the anonimity of it. I meant no disrespect. Maybe if everyone posted their credentials it would be different but do you think that would work?
Sorry Lefty, I do not get offended often, unless people make assumptions about who is pro, or expert, or not. For those that question it, I just throw it our there.
Credentials would probably help out in times like these Killdevilmax. Sorry to get short tempered. i did a lot of work to get where I am :)
Hey 79, if you would, which models at this point would you put more weight on?
OPHELIA IS B-O-R-I-N-G - lets find a new system to talk about
no cause i have no credential. i know quite a bit. i take classes but i am far from getting my degree and i am in no hurry to. and it shouldn't matter, its his opinion and who ever chooses to read and accept it it is on them. this is a blog and we are doing this casue this is our hobby
79 you missed my point. I was just pointing out that no one knows the difference Sorry if I offended you and apologize. You are one of the knowledgeable ones. Chill.
lefty and / or 79, you think this saharah dust situation will ever abate? I heard the updated forecast today and they are forecasting that we have seen less than half the storms we are going to see this year (albeit by a narrow margin). I am thinking maybe more local developement. Your opinion(s)?
Best models are GFDL, ECMWF, FSU Superensemble, and the AVN (If it is within 200 miles of the other 3 after 48 hours) The Avn has moved around quite a bit.. So did the GFDL.. I would have to say ECMWF and the FSU Superensemble
I'll chill killdevilmax long day at work with another long one at 6 AM. That has a lot to do with it. I was more frustrated with not having enough quality time on this storm that I have had.
in the last frames from the ir i noticed a possible westward movement. i checked a bouy ust north of the center and the winds have changed direction. they went from n to ne to e to ese to se now back to east for the last 2 - 3 hrs. possibly a wobble maybe she is moving west. 79 anybody and ideas.
247. Peff
where can we view these 79? I don't recall seeing those names anywhere
subtropic. the dust seems to kill the waves trying to cross the Atlantic, but it goes in cycles. It will die out soon, but it may be too late to allow waves to cross the Atlantic. If we do not see Cape Verde storms in the next 3 weeks, will will not see them. We would then see ones off the ITCZ near Central America, and off of stationary fronts.
Thanx 79. I keep trying to run the FSU model. It seems as though it is still from 12Z10Sep. Frustrating!
This link has other links to the rest of the models. The ECMWF os the European model. Link
lefty i cant tell which way its moving but it does seem to be trying to close off the eye
The FSU model is very slow in updating on the web.. DR, K does not update the site until the mornings. and then late night if they feel like it. They usually publish it to the NHC more readily than the public.
i don't thi k the dust has caused us to have to much of a abd season. we have had a record year and massive dust as well. i doubt its the dust so much as the upper lows we have had to dealwiht that has limited this from being even worse than it has been
254. Peff
Thanks 79!
thanks 79. I have just not seen so much of it like it has been this season in a long time. Usually, as you say, it comes off in pulses. But this year they have been so close together with the African storms moving so far north. I was just wondering if they are factoring this in and are thinking in terms of more carribean and gulf developement, or if this situation will resolve itself and get back to "normal". I haven't been able to guess. Every time I think things are getting more evenly spaced, it gets "dusty again".
Thanks lefty.
yea I saw that too lefty. it looks like it is trying to tighten up and form an eye wall. not as much dry air getting into i think. Back up to hurricane? West is giving me a headache.
subtropic, there seems to be more dust than normal this year. There should be a research project to determine the reason and effect of the dust from this year on tropical systems (May make a good AMS topic). It is tough to tell what the affects are, but is seems to stabilize the air where it is, but oppositely, allows warmer than normal temperatures. Us in Florida have had record low rainfall for the summer months.
gfs finially comming,, looks like it initialized good, ready to see the first 10 frames
79. I hear you. It's been feast or famine for rain where I am (mostly famine).
after studdying lng range radar it appears she is drifting west now. might be a wobble
262. K8e1
hi wilmington nc here whatever this storm does, we are and have been getting extremely strong winds gusts to at least 45mph i cant sleep now cus its noisy
263. Peff
If any of you like a good read and haven't already read it, I strongly recommend Dr. Jeff's Hugo recon story! I just read it and it is a very impressive story!

Hunting Hugo--the Hurricane Hunters' wildest ride

Excellent reading!!
Wow. 45mph. It getting breezy at all by you yet lefty?
Interesting, K8. In myrtle beach, we have Zip!!
its a squeeze play between the ridge and the hurricane. u guys are in a tight gradient so ur getting good winds right now
looks, west to me to lefty
i am in va, no wind up here lol
k6 im just north of you and i only have 7 gust to 12 right now, and the wilmington airport ony has 17 gust to 24,,, r u on the beach or something
270. K8e1
regardless of what this storm does we are and have been getting high wind gusts at least 40 mph for off and on all day i'm in wilmington nc cant sleep now cuz its a little noisy
lowpressure- whats the gfs look like? could you post the link? thanks
Man the GFS is slow... At moving Ophelia that is. 48 hours and about 50 miles of movement.
Peff. That was a great read! I remember reading that many years ago. Pretty interesting as it was our 1st year in MB. Moved 2 months before Hugo. THen had 14 inches of snow that Christmas here at the beach! I knew I was home!!! lol
274. K8e1
nope am near the dear old airport
one of the gfs links,, its not complete yet thoughLink
Here in MB, we have probaby 10 -15 mph winds with maybe an odd gust to 20. Pressure holding at 30.01 surf isnt to out of ordinary either.
I'm back been uploading pictures from my area after Katrina went thru... Now has all of the models updated yet??? Just wondering...
hey you killdevilmax what did you call me today???
killdev,, did the link work for u
Where is she headed?
no taco, not all of them,,, not even full gfs,, big delays tonight
no clue stormj. models not out yet. gfs had some delay casue the nam was delayed so its just now comming out
Here is a question for anyone with the expertise to know the answer. In years when we have fewer tropical cyclones forming are there just as many tropical waves coming across the Atlantic that never develop or are there far fewer tropical waves during less active cyclone years?
are the delays because the computers are crunching all the numbers and there are so many variables with O?
It looks to me from the WV that is certainly more west than it was 3 hrs ago but the center where it looks like an eye forming hasn't moved west in the last half hour. Outflow bands are appearing in the SW quadrant definetely more west. It looks she is ramping up again and growing.
Thanks Lowpressure

This storm is driving me nuts where she is moving... If she moves at all...
hey you killdevilmax what did you call me today??? i tell by jeff that you call me someing today whay was! i am trying to find it you yahoo
dawg i have no clue man sorry
new vortex out and the pressure up to 979mbs


URNT12 KNHC 110444
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/04:28:50Z
B. 31 deg 43 min N
075 deg 54 min W
C. 700 mb 2911 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 329 deg 073 kt
G. 230 deg 024 nm
H. 979 mb
I. 10 C/ 3046 m
J. 14 C/ 3051 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. OPEN S
M. C30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 1416A OPHELIA OB 19
MAX FL WIND 76 KT NE QUAD 01:04:40 Z
EYEWALL PRESENTATION ON RADAR IS VERY RAGGED.

Posted By: killdevilmax at 8:40 PM PDT on September 10, 2005.
sorry 88888888899 but I can't remember what I had for breakfast this morning. I'm sure someone here can answer you though.
hey look familier kill you better not be aking fun of david
dawg. it can be either. Drought in Africa can cause fewer waves. Or, there can be a strong el nino which can shear waves before they can develope, even if there are a lot of them. La Nina can also disrupt waves as they come across. I have seen it happen any of those ways.
Lobby?
weather channel just said jim will be on the outer banks tomarrow,, lol
No 888899 I didn't call you anything. I just said I didn't know the answer to your question.
has anyone found a buoy/ship report that's NOT less tahn 2 hours old?
888889 I just heard my buddy Jim Cantore is coming to where I live tomorrow.
Well I am here in Colleton County, SC while my sister is in Northampton County, NC...so one of us will probably get something....She got hit with Isabel 2 years ago where a huge tree fell on her house...this tree took 4 people to reach around it...hope she doesn't get much of it if it does go thru NC
oop sorry : killdevilmax i this said some to you that was not to up and down of me so if you see it far give me for sying that i did not mean to say it to you
i think they are drawing the maps up by hand tonight
gfs geting close,, looks life it will take it up to the outer banks or just offshore,lefy where is the gfdl
hey : killdevilmax when you see jim can you tell him that i said hi
8888899 Its OK
88899 I sure will. I want to shake hands with him.
killdevilmax, do you live in Morehead City?
No Kill Devil Hills, behind Kill Devil Hill, where the Wright Brothers flew, was Kitty Hawk back then 1903.
can you ask him his e mail from jim for me
888899 I'll see if I can get it for you.
311. Peff
88888889....I don't know how old you are David, but I think you're adorable (that's a good thing). Your posts make me smile :)
Thanks subtropic. Being in South Georgia 65 miles from the Gulf coast, I haven't had many reasons to be concerned about hurricanes during my 47 years. The worst we've had here was cat 1 Kate in 1985, but Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis and Katrina has really gotten my attention during the last 13 months.

Good luck to everyone with their forecasting, but I will wishcast that Ophelia stays offshore and doesn't add any more misery to a storm weary nation. Goodnight to you all.
will you be out there with him when the storm makes landfall it may be safe for you if you ride it out with hime and not in your home they the where they be safe you sould to
does anybody know how long the satellite blackout last
You're welcome dawg. Good night!
I see, Kill Devil Hills, that was where I said earlier the storm would make an exit, or close to it. I do think you will se effects from Ophelia, not necessarily extreme ones. I am not sure of your Sea Level there, but if you are over 6 feet, you should be okay, unless you are Oceanfront. Otherwise, I would not want to be there...
hi Peff i am 20 year old why you say that?
hey kill get me his email too k
hey THEMUFFINMAN we made up
Hey Kill when you do get it just post it on here so we all can have it, Thanks
gfs is out. puts landfall near charleston or a little north in 3 days


Link
322. Peff
The way you defend Jim Cantore is awesome and makes me smile. If Jim ever makes it to Jacksonville, I'll find him and get you an autographed picture! I meant adorable in a fraternal way (as a brother), BTW.
I have a copy of all maps when anyone asks, but I will be sued if I give any of them out. This is why I interpret and then relay them .....
models did just what i figured it would, the gfs has shifted well south again with this run with the recon data
Lefty, look more closely. The first 60 hours are new, 66 through 384 are yesterday's 0z run.
what for real, how is that possibel, theyw ere suppose to do a data dump
They might be fixing that now because I can't even get it to load anymore.
lefty why is the gfs on this link so diffrentLink i am confused now
thast messed up. there was only 3 days 30 mins ago and when i looked back there it was all there. lol
I believe we are seeing a se movement in the last couple of frames
so is the link i gave the good gfs then
its not even 60 hours, its about 48 hours and the rest of it is from yesterday wow. they are really having problems tonight
888899- I can't find his address but if the hurricane comes here i know he will be here and i will ask him for it then and post it here.
helolo i gave out a godd today gfs link
i dunno low i will see when they fix the nws website and i can see the whole model. i didn't even check the dates cause the days weren't there when i first looked only days 1-3 and when i looked back all the days were there so i figured it was done but its still running
Sub you see a S.E. movement in the last few frames before we went out?????
cool, that will work,, how long till the gfdl
79-I'm back on a little island slab at el.+11' large hills around me, stayed for every storm since 88. The water came up from 'sloshing' (eh lefty) in the sound during Floyd to about +5'. Thats the highest i have ever seen it.
lefty how long does this satillite blackot last for
halon, let me look again.
the whole model will now be delayed 1-2 hours and they are having major problems with the prodcust which is why we got what we got. as soon as its fixed i will let you know. u can be assured i will now always look at the run daye and tuime at the bottom. thanks hawk for noticing it
: killdevilmax do you think that jim will set up shop ind your backyeard
halon, looks like it to me. This thing is a beast for movement!
4 hrs so at 245 it will be out but we won't get tyhe first images in the goes floter till 345 est or a little earlier
Sub check this link, set it up for about 10 frames Link
halon, I got a script error for that link.
8888888899- No I think he will be up on the beach by the ocean but he won't get knocked down by a wave like the last guy I saw up there broadcasting.
try this, pick the top center infrared Link
WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON,, THE SATALITE IS OUT,, THE LONG RANGE RADAR IS OUT THE MODLES ARE SCREWED,, WHAT IS GOING ON TONIGHT
have to be back on shift in 4 hours, goin to sleep Later..
killdevilmax if you see him can you tell him that i said hi and can you ask him that if he got a weather ch phone # so i can call him some time and tell hime i will be watching him from me tv from start to when he is done
lowpressure, it wont change that much in 4 hours.... G'night
halon, I got it that time. Looks like it to me. Have you looked at the NHC Storm Floater? It's old now (eclipse), but it really shows what you are seeing.
new ukmet is out. she grazes the nc obx and moves out to sea
goodnight 79
To my surprise, Ophelia seems to have revived a bit. If, against current predictions, the high pressure center to the west takes control, and the hurricane takes a more extended westerly or southwesterly course, would the shear be greater or less than if it went on its forecast track of brushing the the Outer Banks?
THATS a big shift back to the coast for that model,, its last run was way off the coast
shear will not be a problem in 24 hours or so as the high moves to her north. the trouch has been creating the shear so as that moves away her shear will me alot less. the problem is upwelling more than nything. she is forcasted to stall fora couple days and than move slow.
8888899 I'll try.
With that big of a shift back, is that indicative of what the other models may show??
Looks like in the last few frames the eye was starting to emerge, I know what yall say about the models but, I cant help but notice a southerly shift.....guess we will have to wait for the eclipse to get over with
its actually a little east this run from the last one. the last run took her into nc around jacksonville this one just grazes the coast
I'd like to see a map of Ophelia with the gulf stream superimposed on it So we could see how Ophelia will interact with it.
Good nite all I will be checking what and where she is tomorow, yall have a great nite...
Why do I need to see the African and S. American coast and all of mexico on this wunderground model map? That is just silly.lol.
Thanks all sleep tight.
New GFS run is out...problems fixed now...thought you'd want to know everyone...looks like Outer Banks NC
Thanks zeenster!

Thanks for letting me know.
what am i missing? those 10 frames hardly move it at all! maybe i'm just bleary eyed but I don't see the outer banks getting hit at the end of the 10th frame...sorry, pretty sleepy!
thanx...saw it that time!
Shes starting the turn back southeast that high pressure is starting to take over
GFDL is putting her pretty close to my back yard..... what are the canches i should be concerned about possible high winds? (Southern Maine)
anyone awake this mornin?

At this rate you are going to need a boat to chase this hurricane/storm :) ( semi joke ).

I think it is going to be a very dmap squib for people expecting anything interesting.

379. GZ
Down here in Wilmington there is still lots of uncertainty. Just to give you an idea of the discrepancy of the local media, the local paper here is saying landfall in Brunswick County, Holden Beach late Monday/early Tuesday, which is south of Wilmington. Our local ABC affiliate is calling it more like Dr Masters, saying it will take a sharp right before it approaches the Cape Fear and head up to the OB. The CBS station is saying Jacksonville, NC for landfall which is north of the city. Outside my house in downtown Wilmington there is little wind, but I just got back from Wrightsville Beach this morning and the winds are kicking up there a bit more.

GZ
here in SC they were still talking about shelters being open in Charleston
I guess if u look at the NAM on the models page of WUG you still get a landfall in SC, though that model is not for hurricanes I think , so may be resulting in different predictions from local meteorologists who look at that model
also look at fsu model which still puts it on land
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Hiya
We had that piece of severe weather from the southern flow of Ophelia last night, like they did in the Miami area. Winds in Nassau went from 9 mph to 25 mpth in an hour around 9 p.m., stayed there with really strong gusts and severe lightning for an hour and went down to calm afterwards all the way to right now at 8 am EDT.
We didn't get any tornado sighting reports last night like in Miami (nor their reported 46mph gusts); but we did get some trees knocked over and, in my house, at least, one really restless toddler.
I hope that things in this region get better tonight and that Ophelia doesn't affect anyone too severely in the future.
mybahamas

I wonder if that was from the upper level low that Steve Gregory was talking about yest
I guess the nite people are still zzzzing

I need lefty or somebody to look over my shoulder
I guess I killed the discussion
jld, LOL, they were all up late last night...
Bahamas, it was NASTY over here last evening, evidently an Oph feeder bander triggered it. Tornadoes reported: one onland, on tony Fisher Island and near the MIA Herald bldg. power out to 11,000...
Good morning.
MyBahamas. I helped a fellow in Miami last nite as the "GROUP" were too busy with making sure their precious "'Cane" did not get lost in the ocean.
The Miami storm surprized him as he had gone throug Katrina's hit to So Fl. & lost his roofing & was under a BLUE ROOF! They had posted some Tornado warnings. I went on to Miami Radar & helped him calm down. It apparantly was quite severe & lasted a good 45 min. He was fine in the end but needed someone to talk him through it as he had been traumtized by Katrina's surprizing strength. I think if the guys who live here on this board must do it here rather then their own blog, they need to be sensitive to the needs of others who come here for advice. This I feel is probably the worst thing that could happen here. DR. Masters name is on this blog so it reflects on both his name & WeatherUnderground.
Hope you are ok now & out of the woods for now ( & the rest of the season would be great).

Come visit in the other blog when you can & feel free to email me whenever, I enjoy talking with you.
:)
yeah cgables
some went to alec's blog to bash bush and spin conspiracies
we are still on standby for the red cross to open shelters if evacs from SC coast are needed
National Guard convoys were seen yest as well as the power trucks in Florence area
last were still at optcon 3 but hope can stand down later
Hiisborough bay,
I was on here last night and I heard several regulars help him besides you. I don't have time however to waste going back and reposting them.
I live here in Hatteras...overcast, breezy. It has been gusting over 30 for about 24 hrs. I will look at the beach today to see how the waves look. I guess Jim will be showing up in nags head somewhere...wonder why he never comes here ? HA
yea shoal same up here (KDH) I saw the weather Channel was in Wilmington this morning. They probably don't come down there afraid 12 will wash out. The projected track of Ophelia is worst case for the OBX IMO. What do you think?
jld fish didnt go to alecs blog to bash bush all i can say is god bless bush there is a few down here that will always bash
republicas a shame they use a disaster for stupid polictical squabbles. the main problem was with state and local gov.especially landreau in no. went to alecs blog because the conversation was monopolized by several indivuals with no idea what is like to have serious storm affect thier area. they want the experience they say, well after the storm they hall-tail it back to thier cozy home to get full experience they need to stay the course the debris cleanup the digging for the dead nopower water or ice . whay makes me upset with lefty and his alter egos they want these to hit. yes be fascinated with them track them learn about but wish them away goodday and remember this isSUNDAY.
yeah cgables
some went to alec's blog to bash bush and spin conspiracies


I will have you all know, we TALK. NO CONSPIRACIES are spun, but if so, only in jest.

We care about everyone's safety. And Alec's blog is a refuge to those who can't wade through the stuff posted here by few.

Get your story straight jldfish. Don't post if you can't back it up.

Spammingmyselfaswespeak.
Hey i am in Alec's blog and have never talked politics once..you wanna know why??..because its called the WEATHER UNDERGROUND...lol...
Yep KDH, I wonder do they draw straws to see who goes where. I guess with that thing still being stationary who knows but I am surprised about the hurricane watches or lack of! They have mandatory evacuation of Ocracoke now. The track always seems to lean to right so I believe SC is clear anyway. I will keep post as long as I can.
We all care about each other here on the underground so please be careful!

As no one truly knows what HURRICANE Ophelia is going to do we all MUST STAY VIGILANT & prepare for the worst! !!!

Do NOT make any plans based on amateur posts on this BLOG. (Other than Dr. Masters)

Remember for those who live in low lying areas or in mobile or manufactured homes.. Hotels are occupied by refugees from the Gulf coast so your regular may be not available.
(DO NOT WAIT TO SEE FLOOD WATER TO DECIDE TO LEAVE)This will also cause more traffic as we scramble to find a safe place to stay. Get provisions early & avoid the rush & empty shelves. Don't for get to fill some water bottles 3/4 full & freeze them as they will help keep you fridge cold longer & then become drinking water that's actually cold. Thanks for your attention Bloggers!

Stay safe & enjoy the weatherUnderground

TRULY... anyone reading this in the potential land-fall areas , or anywhere close.
Please PREPARE NOW.

Thanks
AMEN QUEEN WHEN STOM SEASON OVER MAYBE THIER MOMS AND DADS WILL GET SOME WORK OUT OF THEM.
Good Morning everybody, I see it still almost in the same spot when I went to bed, no maybe a little south of east but still there... I will be glade when she moves on though, where ever she goes...
shoals, They spoke of extending the watch up the coast of NC last night but didn't do it. The 8am advisory said about the same- watch to Cape Lookout. They will probably wait till the next recon comes in and update the models or it starts moving west again. It takes like 5 hrs. to update the models after the jet flies. Until the models get a better concensus no one is out of the woods yet that are in the cone. The cone is huge so it shows the models are struggling with this one. The storm is having a tug of war trying to fight the shear and dry air. It looked like an eye was forming a little while ago, to be ripped apart by the shear. Just wish it would creep a little to the east today and give us the glance rather than the hit.
Shera
go back and read outrocket posts and the response

jumping to conclusions?
I can not believe how unwilling ya'll are to see the igonrance and gross negligence of our Govt. Top to bottom left to right. Not only his fault, but sure was nice for Bush to stay on vacation for 2 days after Katrina made landfall, and I have heard he was playing golf as she was coming ashore. That is not how I want the over paid leaders to react. Bush appointed the Fema director also did he not? The one that managed horses? The left want to forget the mistakes of the mayor and gov, and the right wants you to forget Bush's part in it. Get a grip. Do not let the biased media spin this so that once again no one takes blame for anything.

Know then back to the tropics. O sure likes to sit and spin. I will be glad when she starts to move N as she is still south of Savannah. Not to mention the 3 day forcast and model have all been out to lunch with this one and she is not supposed to start moving till late tomorrow. Pressure has built up to 30.1" in Charleston from 29.95" yesterday so it looks like the ridge blocking her W movement will hold strong for the time being. She may be a fish storm, but we will all have to watch and see.
JLD..come face me in ALECS blog...do not come to DR MASTERS blog and bash me..what I said was my opinion and in another BLOG .It was not meant for here SO come face me I would love to debate this and SHOW You the facts you cant see...I LIVE ON THAT COAST..I have a right to my opinion..DO YOU?
i hav updated my blog
Anything going on elsewhere in the tropics?
turtlehurricane
taco2me61 talked about O MOVING SOUTHANDEAST yesterday
how far do you think she might drift that way?
god morning everyone
loks like we stil have no clue where she wil go, but her greatest impact sould be tp the outerbanks. so based un the uncertainty and timming i have elted not to chase her as of right now. that could change but wiht her new track i would experience ts force winds here at my home anyways but thats not certain either. what ever weather we experience here in va i will take pics to but up on my blog for u guys. now all this could change but we will see if i do go chase her or not. in my opinion she willlikely graze the outerbanks and move north befor being forced out to sea. this can all chnage as this is 3-4 days out and up for alot of uncertainty. will be on later today as i have footballl to watch with the wife lol.
StormJunkie - The tragedy that hit the Gulf coast in the form of Hurricane Katrina is terrible. There are a lot of things that may have been done to try to move people out of harms way earlier, but New Orleans could have called for mandatory evacuations in advance of Hurricane Ivan or Hurricane Dennis or any of the other hurricanes that have threatened that area so many times.

Those evacuations would have cost millions of dollars and once it became apparent that they were not necessary there would have been a large outcry of criticism against the local government. It is a very hard decision. One that I personally wouldn't want to be responsible for. The city of Savannah, Georgia was evacuated some years ago and the hurricane stayed offshore and there were thousands of people who complained about their inconvenience and expense of being evacuated.

The problem is that an area that is as vulnerable as New Orleans shouldn't have grown as large (population). The lowest areas were probably occupied by the poorest people who are the least likely to leave. This was a tragedy waiting to happen and many knew it. The mayor said before Katrina hit that this is the "one" that we have always feared. The good people of America have donated hundreds of millions of dollars so far. The U.S. government has appropriated tens of billions and other countries have made pledges of monetary assistance.

There are natural disasters on this planet every year including droughts, famines, floods, volcano eruptions, tornados, tidal waves (tsunami), earthquakes, wildfires, mudslides, avalanches, etc. To think that the U.S. is somehow immune from nature's wrath would be naive. When the "big one" hits California, it may dwarf this disaster. but people continue to flock to that location.

What the victims of Hurricane Katrina need is help not criticism of the President. At least with a hurricane there is some advance warning to get away. Many of the other natural disasters I listed above give little or no warning. I believe that New Orleans will never again be as large a city. I feel the worst for the children and pets who were not evacuated because their parents decided to ride out the "approaching" cat 5 storm. I am a grown man, but I cry everytime I watch the suffering of those people and pets on the news.
new thread, ya'll
Salter I am not sure where she will go I think it all depends on the High Pressure that is building in I say it will go south passed the 30par line before she goes west then westnorthwest...


Thats what I think right now...
Thanks for the concern Hills :)
I'm just waiting to hear on the local news if there was any serious weather events here last night. The sky was clear and sunny until an hour ago. Now, it's getting dark ... sort of like yesterday :(
I hope Ophelia's effect doesn't go on for more days here and in FL :(
411. OBXER
Shoal you still on here?