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Ophelia stuck yet again

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:55 PM GMT on September 13, 2005

Ophelia is stuck in place yet again, but this time she threw anchor over some relatively warm water (83F)--right over the Gulf Stream, where a deep, 75-meter thick layer of warm water exists. As a result, Ophelia is slowly strengthening again, and long range radar out of Wilmington, NC is showing the beginnings of an inner eyewall of about 20 miles diameter trying to form inside Ophelia's 100-mile wide cloud-free center. The deep warm water should resist the mixing effect of her winds and prevent water cooler than 80F from upwelling and inhibiting Ophelia's strengthening, at least for the 12 - 18 hours that she is expected to remain stationary.

The latest hurricane hunter flight at 9:20 am EDT found about the same pressure as always, 989 mb, and unimpressive flight level peak winds of 66 knots on the northeast side. Ophelia is in reality a weaker tropical storm than advertised by the NHC; I'd estimate maximum winds near the surface are closer to 60 mph than the 70 mph advertised. Still, the storm is getting better organized, and surface winds may increase back to 70 mph later today, but not much higher. Although the shear is low (5 knots) and the upper-level outflow good, there is still too much dry air and cool water surrounding Ophelia to support anything stronger than a minimal 80 mph Category 1 hurricane. NHC is posting hurricane warnings, and this is reasonable, not so much for the expected wind damage (which should be low), but for the storm surge. Ophelia's winds have had a lot of time to pile up a big mound of water near her center, and the storm surge of 4 - 6 feet she will likely carry to shore in her current state as a tropical storm is more characteristic of a Category 1 hurricane.



The exact landfall point for Ophelia is much less important than for most hurricanes; Ophelia doesn't have the narrow concentrated area of winds that usually make the precise landfall point such a big deal. There will be a large area of the coast that will receive tropical storm force winds, which extend out about 160 miles from the center, an exceptionally large area for a tropical storm. Flooding from rain could be a problem in some places; areas near Wilmington, NC have already received 2 - 3 inches, and will get much more from this very wet storm. Fortunately, much of eastern North Carolina is under mild drought.


Figure 1. Rainfall estimate from the Wilmington radar. The estimates in northern NC at the top of the image are bogus.

Computer model forecasts
All of the computer model forecasts keep Ophelia puttering around her current location most of today, but then turn her north and then northeast just offshore Cape Fear, NC and accelerate her rapidly northeastward out to sea. Some of the models indicate that New England (particularly Cape Cod, MA) and Nova Scotia may receive tropical storm force winds from Ophelia on Friday and Saturday, respectively.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The rest of the tropics are quiet, and it is likely we will get about a one week break in the action. Next week, several of the long-range global models indicate that conditions for tropical storm formation are expected to improve over much of the tropical Atlantic.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

She is west of the NHC forcast position again.
Posted By: deb1 at 2:02 PM GMT on September 13, 2005.
again, WSI, it wasn't your particular choice of words I was commenting on - it's the language itself. 'Minimum cat 1' is an official way of describing storms, which gets people focused on the wind speed and what damage the wind can cause, as opposed to the potential for water and flood damage.

Oh cmon give the guy a break..Thats what us weather people call it, I am pretty sure most sensible people in NC are listening to there local officials and know what action to take..They go through many of these a year, including rough noreasters that produce 50 to 60 mph winds..So Deb let it go already..Thank you.
Hi SJ, gonna be a long day again for storm trackers... Am glad the rest of the tropics are quiet, we'll need a break
i still say somewhere between georgetown/MB
I can guarantee that...

It will affect the east coast. Other than that I'm not gonna touch it. SC/NC boarder looks promising but God only knows what O will do next.
but I don't want a break from the tropics...makes me have to work harder when I don't have the tropics to watch. lol
I cannot believe she's pulling the same stunt she did on the FL coast, going to pound on the coast for day after day...and moving closer to shore so its makes it that much more uncomfortable. Dejavu
and might I add that a nice little eye is forming (seen on radar) Link
LOL..."little eye" is key there...you can barely pick it out...it does appear to be intensifying some. Wonder if the track will change any or if the NHC is going to stick with what they have. The center is west of the forecast track...
A comment and a question. From looking at the Wilmington radar, it almost looks like the eye is moving SSW over the last hour and a half.

Now my question, for those familar with eastern NC, if O follows the current NHC projected path, what do you think driving conditions will be like tommorrow between Raleigh and Greenville? My daughter is a grad. student at ECU but lives at home in Raleigh (well Cary really). She only has classes three days a week, and we couldn't see her renting an apt. for just two nights a week. She has class tommorrow morning at 9:30 and typically heads back west around 4:00. Do you think she will run into any problems getting back home tommorrow? I doubt ECU would cancel classes and she doesn't want to miss any classes if they are held. Thanks for any advice.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z... DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA COASTAL DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3
NORTH... LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON
NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...
STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND
OPHELIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE
CENTER. OPHELIA'S STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED RELATIVELY FAR FROM
THE CENTER...ROUGHLY 50 TO 60 MILES...AND THESE WINDS WILL REACH THE
COASTLINE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41004 RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 MPH WITH A GUST TO 58 MPH.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPHELIA. A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO
8 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
10 INCHES OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH
CAROLINA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...32.3 N... 78.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB.
You're daughter should have gone to NC
State...LOL...Tomorrow afternoon the weather will probably be pretty squirrely about that time....Depending on what the storm does I wouldn't be surprised if ECU cancelled classes for 1 day...
I'm starting to think the we are looking at a different storm than the NHC. They say NNW at 3 but every thing I have looked at looks like WSW-SSW. It will be interesting if they keep the track the same at 2PM.

That center skrinking like that worries me a bit. I don't recall seeing the center of a storm close up so quick. Any comment?
>> You're daughter should have gone to NC
State..

Hey, believe me I tried hard as I could to get either her or our son to go to State and neither had any interest. Both went to Appalachian for undergraduate. I grew up in Greenville though, so I guess going to ECU is okay. Ihope they do cancel classes, then she/we wouldn't have to worry about it.
looks like the eye which was trying to form was "absorbed" by the outer circulation...... we'll see if it try's to regenerate again! ;)
Ditto on your last two posts stormydee. still hoping it would continue her westward movement last night and come inland SC.
Amazing to see the models move a forecast closer to the BAMM.. that doesn't happen too often.
The radar does suggest a W or even a WSW track of the smaller inner eye over the past hour or two. The radar center also seems to be a bit to the SW of the official center at 11 AM.
well it's kinda hard to avoid when the storm keeps doing something different than the NHC says it's going to do...'couse the NHC is SLIGHTLY moving their forecast track west a little each update... They'll keep it in their "cone of possibility"
10 to 15 inches of rain, that is heavy.
Hey guys.......just wanted to step and say....how can the NHC say that ophelia is moving NNW, when the radar shows a WSW movement for the last 2 hours.........I guess they are tired of Ophelia showing them up.......Im still a big fan of the NHC but come on.........the radar does not lie!!!!!!!!!!
NHC Disscusion regarding the inner circulation center:
The initial motion estimate is 330/03 over the past 9-12 hours. A small inner-core circulation with convection has been rotating cyclonically around the inside of the larger radius of maximum winds. This has resulted in spits and spurts of forward motion...including small loops. However...the larger circulation and pressure field appear to be moving slowly but steadily toward the North Carolina coast.
23. WSI
Hey deb1, perhaps you would like to call out Dr. Masters on his wording in his current post...

"than a minimal 80 mph Category 1 hurricane."
Hi all,
Here in Myrtle Beach. All is well so far. I have been reading blogs saying they think a more sw track. Wondering if this is still the thinking?
fred, Link
looks me wnw, the NHC should at least acknowledge this.
Good morning all. VHE in Myrtle as well. I am curious to see the radar links showing a sw movement. If anyone can provide the link, it would be much appreciated. I brought up the intellicast radar and did not see the sw movement everyone is talking bout.
Here u go VHE...Link...NO sw movement..basically NNW.
28. WSI
I see northwest on the radar. I wouldn't say NNW though.
But MB may get into that rainband just off the coast..This is where most of the strongest winds are located..50 to 60 mph gusts...It will be close for you guys, but I think you guys may get off not to bad with this one.
hey guys,greetings from ocean isle beach.this has been a tough one to plan for.dont know if its going to be a fizzle or an 18 hr marathon here at oib,n.c.
31. GZ
lots of rain already here in Wilmington. Roads have some standing water, flooding could be a major problem here.
thanks 03....that's what i saw as well

Hey thelmores, if you're still here, see any doughnut conventions on 501 this morning??
33. WSI
No south component in the movement.
34. GZ
no kidding hisedrifter. are you riding it out at the beach?
Looking at weatherguys link, it is hard to believe that she will turn that hard to miss the sc coast. I am just a curious observer.
Keep an eye on the flooding part, particularly if driving.

We do highway design and drainage is NOT designed for the high intensity/return period of this storm type.
hey guys, it looks to be forming an eye on the western side of the bigger "eye"
Yep hopefully once it gets near NC it starts to move faster...I think flooding and coastal flooding is gonna be the big story here, especially the road flooding if it keeps moving slow.
She would have to stall and head NE in a hurry to stay on NHC track?
Ophelia! Probably one of the most appropriate named tropical systems of all time!!
gz,we,re playing it by ear.im leaving work(in nmb)in about an hour and going home.ive got a key to a motel room in little river in my back pocket in case we decide to leave the island.last year,charlie picked up my boat dock(with boat attached) and deposited in my neighbors yard.kind of wigged out the family.so at this point i dont know what to do.
The center has not moved in the past 1.5 hrs... Looks like the eye that forming is still there, just in a wobble. look at the charleston radar. I use Accuweather pro..
I think you are right hooked. It looks like the outflow is increasing probably as a reult of this mornings blow up. The outflow and associated storms are giving a false impression of movement. Or atleast in my opinon.
Hiseasdrifter: If you have a voluntary evacuation, please go to the motel. Remember your life is precious. If you have family, your first priority is to keep them safe. Best wishes
46. deb1
WSI, lol. Might just do that...

Hydrocvl, do you think drainage should be designed to deal will high intensity rainfall, especially in TS and hurricane prone areas?
Looks like it's almost time to bring in the doggies. Rain bands are a coming to the Grand Strand!
Looking at the long range radar it appears that some of the outflow in the easter portion of NC might be stirring up more rain. Wonder if the daytime heating my be fueling this?
In a NUTSHELL FOLKS: Please remember Safety FIRST!

Listen to the local news for the latest updates on your local area. If you are in "the cone" and on the coast, "hide from the wind, but RUN from the water". Have an evacuation plan. Board and Shutter as needed. Often times damage is caused by tornados and storm surge, NOT just the sustained winds.

Most who post here are not professionals, but enjoy following Tropical Weather.

Please all, tune in to the NWS for your area. Be smart and stay safe.
VHE
Where in MB are you (N,Middle,S)? What do you think we can expect here?
Hi myrtleb.

I am in the forestbrook area, on the other side of the waterway.

Probably not any worse than Bertha or Fran here. Some strong wind gusts and periods of heavy rain. One exception, the TS force winds may more than likely be of a longer duration, however.
Myrtleb, what's your location?
If Ophelia makes landfall she has to break the record for slowest average speed for a US Landfall tropical system.

It has been pretty quiet for most of the season for those Cape Verde systems. Most every wave seems to come off around 10N and gets pushed southward. Is this the influence of some high pressure sitting out in the upper Atlantic?
I live in Murrells Inlet but I am at work just down the street from you across from the old pottery.
hey all you myrtle beach folks...i'm in my office on 48th north in mb..heading out in a little while to survey the properties i manage... i live in nmb..hope it doesn't get too bad..i don't have the time to deal with it!
It looks like it is going to start soon for us. Be careful guys. I'm guessing it will be of a long duration of wind, rain, maybe a power outage here and there and of course, the possibility of an embedded tornado. Fun!
there was a sw glitch as the eye wrapped around earlier, it appeared to move sw but its obvious now its probably about stationary or somewhat ne...
dear lovthetropics,words of wisdom indeed.thx
It looks like the BAM models may have nailed the landfall, especially since they're both picking the same spot just south of the NC border.
I think we'll have ourselves a hurricane again...I would think by 2PM...but if things remain the same, def. by 5PM...anyone got the latest vortex?
the heavy t.s. windwrapped rainband has moved in....gonna be a very long day for you folks there. I hope all items outside are secure so they don't start flying all over the neighborhood busting out windows and ripping off roofs...or worse, hitting someone in the head that is standing out in the dreary weather admiring Ophelia cause they wanted to feel ya, I mean her.
Hi.

I'm in Jacksonville, NC. We live on the New River, which is the large inlet that looks like the backward S one county below the foot where the OBX start. I'm a SOFLA native, hurricane fatigued until Andrew, now hurricane paranoid!!! We're hanging loose but it's starting to get breezy. It sure looks to me like Myrtle Beach is going to get it instead of us!!

Hi newriver --

Hoping things don't get too bad where you are! We've got a house on Topsail Island (near Surf City) and I'm hoping it doesn't take too much of beating. We closed it up Sunday in anticipation of Ophelia.


Just getting back from lunch.....After reading this blog....I must be looking at a different radar.....cause its still moving west.....the whole general rain area is moving west.....It looks like south of georgetown....
We went to the beach at 4mile access, North Topsail on Saturday. Yuk! It was starting to blow sand, the waves were rugged and reached the bottom of the dunes right there next to the bathrooms/beach access. We had to do the towel/sandle scramble a couple of times and decided to call it a day. You can't get any farther away from the ocean than the foot of the dunes!! I'm sure your house will be ok!! Ophelia needs to make up her fool mind!!!!
Based on the radar this thing is actually staring to look like a tropical enity again. Saw on Wilmington news channel that they had issued mandantory evacuations from Holden Beach in Brunswick county. i guess that throws me going to get my camper out the window. Good thing it's insured.
67. GZ
here in Wilmington it has stopped raining, we had some heavy localized rains here this morning, but its been quiet since..
I don't understand what the NHC "experts" see that i don't that makes them keep sticking to the track they've posted. I don't see anything that is going to steer this thing NE anytime soon and so far it "appears" to be west of their forecsat track. Anyone agree with the NHC and can you explain why?.....
in the last frame of this loop you can see the eye starting to try to re-form and also see it is traveling NW west of the forecast track..

Link
I agree with you Pirate. It just doesn't make sense but they are SUPPOSED to know what they are doing. Looking at the radar these rain is moving just west of north.

Anyone in southeastern NC that's interested WECT has a good list of Evcuations and Closings. Noticed on there that the local schools pulled the trigger which is HIGHLY unusual.
Well its been very hard to forecast first of all, second with this one its not going to be very important where the center comes ashore, most of the weather is out 50 to 60 miles away from the center and even those buoy reports are showing only 45 to 50 mph gusts..So I think a generally north motion will take over by tonite, but again dont worry too much about the center..
shes becoming elongated...maybe that trough is finally starting to affect her and she should start pulling more north...then eventually, if NHC is correct, NE...but we will see...
wg03 I'm not too worried about the center. This storm had been so screwed up she probably has more than 1 (j/k). My thing is I am 65-70 miles from the coast..just north of Pedro(South of the Border). If it moves north we won't see much at all. If it moves west of north things could get nasty. And besides...my laen says we need the rain.
carteret county schools cancelled schools last night for today?! Other than being windy the sun is out and it's nice. I guess they were watching the forecast which said we'd be experiencing TS force winds by 2 today...NOT..who knows.....
I'm supposed to be flying into Myrtle Beach Wednesday around noon.
Do you MB residents think the airport will be accepting incoming traffic on Wednesday ??

Thought one of you locals might have some knowledge on airport closures or delays.
What city are you in PIRATE?
77. GZ
Rebel, WWAY-TV abc is giving updates on the hour as well.
I'm between Morehead City and Emerald Isle On Hwy 24....I'm not on the island....
Yeah Rebel I saw you guys need rain up there..Hopefully you will get some without it getting too bad..Yeah been up that way plenty of times..I know where your at..lol..Again if it just stays off the coast, unfortunatley you may not see much there.
it has gotten cloudier..as I would expect..but not much else..
im glad you folks in nc didnt have katrinaa with all the close
scrutiny has been put in ats for aweek. we also had cindy hit the ms coast in early july actually alittle stronger than this storm also on pro they said the vetrans of nc storms know this is about the same as a noreaster my niece lives in wilmington said they are more concerned about family and friends here in the aftermath of katrina most peoplee in the hospital she works
are treating this as a weaker gaston no panic although that could forming in carrib in next week with gulf problems again have anice day back to katrina cleanup.
hey everybody
I thought this system was coming - here she wobbles! Seas are rolling about 12 feet further up on beach with big curlers coming in - wind is intermittently brisk - we are across the street from the beach at Fort Fisher (kure Beach)& can see Cape Fear River behind us from 2nd floor. We just got cable & internet back - oddly had been out repeatedly this past week - before any winds. We put up aluminum panels on big glass doors & first floor windows & have cranked down shutters on 2nd/3rd floors. Have water & coolers in house packed w/ice & extra batteries. Snug as bugs in rug - many neighbors not bothering to close up. According to new flood/storm maps we are in an area not likely to be flooded even w/slow moving category 3. The hard thing will be to stay inside closed up (which we will do). Currently a regular stream of traffic down to end of peninsula in spite of some low hanging electrical lines - we'll stay home & if/when power goes - hunker down, play Scrabble & read. Will venture out at high tide - 16:15 - if wind permits - to get a look at the beach.
Hey lefty..

I finally figured it out...that isn't a TS on the sats and radar..it's weeble wobble.

2PM advisory much like the 11AM.
85. GZ
grace thanks for the update. We are down here in Wilmington ready to go, it looks like she will bring us some rain....
NCR!!! You knew better than to leave your danged camper to the last minute!!!

Oh hi everyone! ::G::
howdy...
Well I know but It's a pain to haul back and forth so I was kinda sorta hoping this thing would disappear but I guess I was wrong. Oh well...stuff happens.

stormygace how about running down to the pier and fixing the cam. j/k

lefty you still thinking MB/NC&Sc border or are you jumping ship to more north?

NCR LOL!!!
Is a weeble wooble one of those inflated toys that you can punch and it's got a heavy bottom so it pops back up? 'Cause that's what Oph is reminding me of these days...
i belive landfall will be between mb and wilmington. but with how the storm is setup, the stronegest winds extend out 60 miles from the cenetr so it doesn't matter to much where she hits, from mb to the obanx there will be a prolonged period of 60-70 mph sustained winds with gust as high as 80-90. this copuld change as she is really trying to get betetr orginised but she will still have a big windfield
it was a little fisher price toy...little figures shaped kinda like an egg...stupid commercials..."weebles wonbble but they don't fall down".
well i can't remember what those are called but the weeble wobble is similar except they are small people looking things that have weighted bottoms like what you are talking about. The weeble wobbles will go down stairs almost like a slinky.
I've been noticing that Kure and Wrightsville have both been about 25-30 sustained with 35-40 gusts.
Hey lefty, thought u would be at the coast with camera in hand...lol
pedro's sombrero is gonna end up north of the border..lol...AT this point I just want this thing to move and hit somewhere and get out of here.... got other things to worry about...
yeah i will be in va beach when she gets closer. atleast thats what i hope but hse might make a sharp turn and all i get in va beach is some high surf lol
Oh my Gosh, forgot about Pedro's sombrero! LOL
same her Pirate this is getting old fast.

Pedro's sombrero would look good sticking out of the ey of this thing...say like somewhere over the ocean.
For Wolfpackfan: I teach at ECU but live in New Bern. From past experience, it's unlikely they will cancell morning classes, but may cancel mid-day if things begin to get dicey. Unfortunately for commuters, this policy has often forced us to drive through the thick of things. It's happened repeatedly in hurricanes and snow storms. (I do understand the difficulties of shutting down a university with 20,000 kids.) As a professor, I can tell you I'm very understanding about commuting students and weather, I think most grad profs are the same.
could take all those stupid billboards with it like.."Pedros' weather forecast....chili today hot tamale"...LOL
MB looks likes its getting ready to get into some rough stuff. How's it looking down there...

Pirate, you're bringing back 50 years of memories of Route 1, then Int 95. Many, many trips.
NCR...Not much yet here in MB! Some gusts once in awhile, sprinkle or 2 but really nothing to write home about!
Ophelia is moving ever so slowly so that we will at least have something to talk about in the tropics...maybe when something else forms, she'll realize everyone is tired of her and she'll finally storm on out of here...lol
hmmm... hate to sound dumb - but, ok, What cam? Was out earlier - no one one Kure Beach pier - felt bad for owners of new construction just north of the pier w/incomplete roofing - the moisture barriers were peeling off roofs (the stuff laid down neath the shingles) & flapping. We're getting a little bit of rain now - had episodes of hard rain last pm & early this am - nothing big yet.

Friend looking over my shoulder just commented in passing I was an idiot not to know about the Kure beach pier - nice - lmao.
Posted By: stormygace at 6:00 PM GMT on September 13, 2005.
Will venture out at high tide - 16:15 - if wind permits - to get a look at the beach.

---------

Stay safe--will look forward to your high tide report if you decide to venture out.

Wish I knew what was happening at Topsail Island, but you are fairly close to it anyway. Any information is appreciated.

106. GZ
Coastal I have a friend staying at Topsail. He is supposed to call me at some point, as is another friend at Wrightsville Beach. I will be sure to pass along any updates..
in 30 min to an hr mb is going to get a band to com on shore and that band will conatain someof thw worse whaetehr u have seen . it will have 30-50mph sustained winds and gust to 60 mph
damn sorry i can't type.

should say some of the worst weather u have seen from ophelia. winds 30-50mph sustained and gusts to as high as 60 mph
This cam it also has live wind speeds for Wrightsville and Kure. Kinda slow to load sometimes.
this band comming into mb will be a good one. lots of deep convection and wind. hope this one does not knock out ur power as updates on ur weather will be loved
Posted By: GZ at 6:34 PM GMT on September 13, 2005.

Coastal I have a friend staying at Topsail. He is supposed to call me at some point, as is another friend at Wrightsville Beach. I will be sure to pass along any updates.

Thanks GZ--much appreciated.

One fortunate thing is that the house is on the sound side, and on stilts but the beach itself is only 2 small-ish blocks away. I'm thinking the storm surge will take the water over the dunes. We should be okay, but still I worry having had dealt with Fran in 1995.



nc is the cam out?
This is the best looking T.S. on visisble I have ever seen lol,very large a very large eyelike feature.
I hate those south of the border bilbords.
Sorry bout my horrible spelling there.
how is it in wilmington right now? am in california and have family there.
hi, this is Philippe, I am ready for some action. These tropics are tired of the dust and I plan to show that dust whose boss! I plan to come see everyone soon and when I do, I won't be so indecisive as my sister is being...don't be surprised if I come kick Ophelia out to sea, she is boring me. lol
lefty the Kure Beach Pier cam won't load. the wind speeds come up but they take a while. the wrightsville beach cam works and the weather portion works fine too. I was actually joking with stormygace. didn't realize she wasn't aware of the cam. LOL

wilmingotn has winds in the 20-30mph range with gusts to 40. in 2-3 hrs those strong bands will finally be comming on shore there too. right now looks like mb is about to get hammered
LOL...yea I grew up seeing those signs when we took trips south...It's amazing how popular S.O.the B. used to be...people would actually make that a stop on their vacations....

It shouldn't be long before Ocean Isle, Long Beach, Holden Beach should start seeing some interesting weather as well...
thanks
Ophelia has some things going for it ie., very concentric, hot atmosphere for mid-September, approaching a little warmer water, inordinately large wind field. The large diameter eye area and the wind field diameter pretty much say the storm has potential. Wouldn't rely on a hurricane needing 80 degree or hotter water to strengthen either, not these days. Hope the folks along the eastern seaboard are battened down.
thanks nc. i ahve the wroghtsvill beach cam up and fogured the other cam was down. the winds speed works and i aprreciate that link
thx to all who explained weebles to me, I led a *deprived* childhood in the islands and missed that particular cultural icon... LOL

Either way, yeah, a weeble or that punching toy, spins around going nowhere fast. Not a slinky tho', they can get some good momentum going down stairs... and Oph has none whatsoever...
stormydee - DON'T YOU DARE!!! Unless you are a fishie storm
Katrina has left the leaves of plants and trees in the Alabama-Mississippi coastal area "burned." Immediately after the storm many leaves not only turned brown but also blackish. This seems different from other storms to me. For example, in coastal Alabama, I don't remember Ivan having this effect at all though there was much damage to the foliage - the burned look seems different and new. Is this a regular and natural effect of strong hurricanes? Is it an effect of particular types of hurricanes? Could this be the effects of some kind of drying agent?
great cam Rebel thank you so much.
OH smack...I just found out that if you right click on the Wrightsville beach cam i linked to you can show it full screen...Better than a screensaver.

Just had a brief shower. Rain wasn't that heavy but it was kinda gusty for what's its been being.

Schools here closed tomorrow but my son's baseball game is still on for tonight. I asked about the weather and the city employee asked "what weather" LMAO
I can sit at work and watch the waves come in..lol..
I hope everyone on the coast has their mallets or hammers ready with floatation devices...this will be added to next years hurricane preparedness list (so you can get thru your roof).
stellar might have to do with the salt in the salt water driven onland by the winds
Stellar, it is the effect of the salt water possibly. We had machine shops 1.5 mis inland dealing with salt corrosion after Andrew
cgb i beat u that time lol
I was scrolling up the page and accidentally clicked the spam button on someone's post..not sure whos...sorry ahead of time....

great link to the cam at wrightsville....

I just hope people aren't too relaxed about this storm..it seems many are...a few may get surprised...
TWC stuff looks like the center/eye has closed finally.
Commenting that at 4mph is moving it's fastest in several days... that's pretty sad. Who was it said this will probably take the record for slowest landfalling system?
lefty, lol, I saw that...
what's scary is how closely our minds think alike...
looks like there are several people playing on the beach...wish i didn't have to work..'course they'll be closing the bridges to the island soon...
pirate,
maybe send an email to admin telling them that? or to Dr. Jeff? That way they know it's an accident... just a thought
wow she is really getting orginised fast. she has almost gotted rid of that dry air in her core. she might be back to a cane by the 5pm update but if not than def by the 11pm if this trend continues
I think more than one has to click on it for it to be removed.
yeah cgb, i was thinking that too. i was mainly happy i typed it befor you finally lol
cb...if it even makes landfall....I think she wants to skirt the coast, keep her arms in the water...nothing to push her in...just making life slowly miserable for you folks on the coast.
Lefty, the BAMM was right, go figure.. Does this mean more activity in VA
next recon vortex message should be out in an hr. really want to know whats going on in there

any one from mb still here. if so anyy update on your weather?
possibly hooked. remebr the models are just a guide and she could track 200 miles on either side of the model tracks. we will know more when she turns due north and we know when she turns ne as to the extent of the impact to va
the models seem to be spreading out a bit...a couple have it going off the coast completely....CRAZY....

Link
man, looks like the coast is getting pounded....with no end in sight.
Hi from Myrtle Beach,
Very heavy rain in south myrtle with gusty winds.
I have been using this link to watch models and is now not working, does any one have a similar link that works? thanks in advance.
http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/
Hi Lefty. Same old same old here in MB. On and off gusts with sporadic sprinkles. Heard our first rumble of thunder about 20min ago. Been waiting for the bands to encroach on the beach. At noon it looked like they were about a half hour out.....still waiting!
MB could get 12 inches of rain over the next 24 hours. The bands of rain will sit over them... Gaston to richmond, Ophelia to MB
thanks myrteb, some heavy bands on comming onshore. if u can give us updates every soe foten specialy if the weather chnages, eother good or bad. thankks
Hey all....well it looks like we may actually be able to finally get rid of O in a few days. Sorry everyone in the Carolinas has to deal with her.
u think those bands are comming in now for you. i saw the band with the thunder but it has modified some but still has some deep convection. how close to the beach are you guys down in mb.
leftyy, looks like she is wanting to tighten up, just looked at the radar
Per the NHC reports, Ophelia has been heading due north since 5 AM and not NNW

5 AM EDT 32.0N 78.0W
11 AM EDT 32.3N 78.0W
2 PM EDT 32.5N 78.0W
I am about 5 miles from the coast in Murrells Inlet which is in south myrtle.
yeah from mb to wilimington there will be some bad training of the rain and i would not be supprised to see 15inches in some places. she fought off the dry air so while 2 days ago rain looked to be minimal not any more. she will dump tons of rain and if richmond last year was any clue, it can get bad quick. richmond was flooded bad too
I'm about 2 or 3 miles inland, central MB.

Myrtleb, are you now home down in the Inlet??

Haven't even lost my Directv sat signal yet!
well for now I'll believe what the radar shows and what's actually happening over what the NHC is saying....
fred in the 2pm advisory they state nnw so they are the experts on the motion so until they say other wise its nnw.


thansk myrtleb,
yes i am home. dish is still a ok. we still have a pretty heavy rain here but the winds have died down a bit.
Hey y'all, another Wilmingtonian here, actually live just north in Scott's Hill. Been lurking for several weeks (and using Wunderground for 10 years - thanks crew!). Been through all the tropical stuff here for the last 8 years, more names than I can remember anymore. Swear Cantore used to have a standing reservation at Wrightsville Beach...

Things have died down here, minimal wind and no rain for a few hours now. Had some pretty good rain last night and this morning. Went up to Surf City/Topsail yesterday and took some photos/video (will try to post later), will probably go up again today before the rain sets in. Lots of waves and wind then, with waves to within 5 ft. or so of the dunes in some places. And of course a few crazy surfers. :) I'll let y'all know what I see!

--JP
yesh she appears to be getteing much betetr orginised and her inner core is starting to develop again
Myrtleb...amazing. We have nothing but a sprinkle! lol

Decent gusts now, however. I guess you're about 20 or so miles S of me.
how is this for timing. we just took all the siding and roof off of our house. some of the siding is replaced but have no front on the house. have 1/2 old roof, 1/2 new roof. I think the rain amounts we be much higher that first thought based on current rain bands.
she is starting to look impressive

Link
lol u guys in mb, those bands just don't want to come on shore ar all lol they look like they are comming but they don't make it.
Myrtleb, how was traffic on 501 and the bypass when you went home?
eat my words - ECU has closed down
u guys in mb beach could see upto 15 inches of rain maybe more maybe less but looks like u guys will be in a training situation when those bands finally come on shore
Lefty...story of my life!!!! j/k lol
weatherdude I use that link a lot..good info...if you select Tropical forecast points(last box) you can see it is west of the forecast track...
not much traffic at all. I have not checked radar but we have a heck of long rain band coming through now. wind is bending trees a bit. i think we are in for a long night. hope we keep electricity.
lol in a few hrs u will be getting it though. hope u enjoy the show and u guys have little damage. would love to be there. i was suppose to be there but her track and timming didn't work out for me. hope to meet her at va beach and see what she has left lol
Yeah, we're going to be soaked for sure. Between the training and the slow movement, I'll be longing for what we have now!
pirate, that is the story of O's life...she has not done anything anyone has predicted!
lefty where r u?
yeah when thos stronger bands gett on shore i don't think u will have power formuch longb after that. rain can blw transformers but all it takes is one tree limb and there goes the whole area
course i shouldn't have said anything..the last wobble put it right in line..LOL...D@#$ crazy storm...
central va. just north of richmond
Thanks, MB. I hope everything is ok wth regard to your house situation!
anyone know the latest on the track. how close is it going to get to se sc coast? i have heard so many different things, i do not know who to believe.
oh, just wondering i hav efamily in norfolk and poquoson
what really hurt me was the fact i have jury duty in nov so my wife needs to save as much pto as possible as she might have to miss alot of that month as i am the primary care giver to our kids. got the letetr last week other wise she would have taken this whole week off and i would have been down there. my first plan was for her to mis 2-3 days as she was going to make landfall sunday night and she has sun and mondays off so i was goin to plan to be home thursday or so. plus 8hr drive down there and a 8 hr drive back means atyleast 1 whole day for travel. but i live 2 hrs from va beach so i can be there in a flash
yeah i use to go to classes in norfolk, i was a gebneral manager oif a mcdonalds and we had training classes 4 times a year either in norflok or chicago. poquoson is a nice little area just go thru the tunnel lol


she will make landfall in my opinion between mb and wilimingotn
Link

Great visible loop
Anyone who is in NC you can find your county and its storm surge map here. I was shocked to find that my house may flood with a Cat 1-2 surge as I am 18 feet above sea level. I am at a point in the river where it goes from very large inlet to a river 20-50 feet across. EMC says the water stacks up and flows over when there's nowhere else for it to go, so even if you think you're safe, check it out!!!

http://www.hurricanetrack.com/ncstormsurge/comaps.html

u can see from radar the bands approach mb but come on shore just to the south which is why myrtelb is getting worse weather right now
Lefty,

Whenever there is slow erratic motion they (NHC) tend to use a longer time period to determine current direction, typically at least 12hrs which in this case is closer to NNW.... but I wonder if the turn to the North or N-NE may be starting. They appear to be discounting the shorter term motion of the past 6 hrs.
fred after looking at radar, dif ir and visible loops i see a nw motion more than i do a n so i feel a nnw motion is accuarte
Stellarcyclone - maybe sooo much saltwater on freshwater vegetation?

Couldn't wait - so just got back from across street. Wind blowing steadily probably around 30mph - not at all difficult to stand against. Surf is breaking at end of boardwalk w/occasional wash making it just to steps of beach access - right at beach grass line. Still at least 30 feet to base of Ocen Dunes Condos. BIG rollers breaking on dissipative beach about 50 yards out. Water dark grey-green with whitcaps to the horizon. Noticed a solitary brown pelican 60 to 70 yards off shore - flying north - making little headway but divng into water & apparently feeding then taking off again - TOUGH BIRD! No sand whipping down beach like past storms - I think b/c beach sodden - will go back out in 45 minutes - went now b/c losing light & wanted to get pics. Very much like northeasters I've been here for previously but MUCH warmer.

Definitely will be beach combing after this one calms down abit!
193. GZ
raining in Wilmington...Wrightsville Beach is said to be experiencing tremendous surf, challenging the dunes...
194. GZ
grace you should be able to find some bullets, etc from the epic battle there. seems like someone also does after these storms!
next recon vortex message in 30-40 minutes. should be a interesting one
Lefty
If your radar observation is correct then the NHC positions over the past 6 hrs would have to be in error.
and that happens fred a sthat track has not changed much for 2 days, so once she started to turn north u would see ehr deviate from that track and its been almost 6 hrs from the last nhc track update. we will see at 5pm what they say
also umust note that woth cenetr positions it say they are off by as much as 25 nm thats close to 30 regular miles
what do ya'll think the 5pm will bring as far as track and strength?
and than after all that this si what they say in there own words fred


REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...32.5 N... 78.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB
I love this beach - not the greatest for intact shells - depending on your timing you can get into olives or lion's paws & big clamshells riddled w/holes that make awesome soap dishes BUT it is a reliable place for sharks teeth of all sizes & fossilized bones in the summer & bullets of WW II vintage (big copper sheathed tracers) & sometimes Civil War balls & shells. I'll be prowling for sure!:)

Am still looking for good shelling places - sometimes I'll drive up to the North end of Topsail - variable success for the 90 minute drive. Have been a little wimpy about sliding across ICW to Masonboro on sit-on-top kayak - too much rain this summer to be compelled for clamming - have found amazing skeletal remains over there clamming - dolphin, sea turtle.
slight shift to the west maybe but i doube u will see much change in the track. strength wise i need the new recon but i would not be supprised if she is a minimal cat 1 again
I gonna guess that it will be a hurricane again but they will leave the track fairly similar to previous forecasts. For some reason they have emotional attachment to that track.
any ofu guys from mb still on. if so any chnage in ur weather?
Lefty....pretty good rain burst about 10 min ago. Winds still sporadically gusty. Back to a sprinkle/mist. Again, still waiting for the "show."

Did lose the sat signal for about 15 seconds....oh boy!

Airport still open.
lol, glad u got the sat back. tahts why i have cable lol. looks like another strong band is headed inland in 15-30 mins. hope u can keep us updated and that u don't lose power. thanks for the update
conditions in south myrtle: still raining here. has not stopped in quite some time but has slacked off at times. gusty winds. still have sat. tv
I filled the gas cans Sat. for the generator. We're ready to "camp" for a good 5 days or so. Will keep updating for as long as you all want and I have something of significance to report.
Jeff Morrow with the Weather Channel is in our county talking about how rough it's getting...I was laughing the whole time...it may get rough later but now it's windy with a drizzle...gotta get them ratings
An eyewall seems to be trying to develop now,it will likely regain hurricane status.
vertical good to hear and i think it would be awsome for u to keep psting thru the storm as long as you can and conditions warant. thansk alot

mytelb, yeah looks like a strong band passed over where u are awhile ago but there is a mean band comming in in the next 15039 mins, maybe as much as an hr away. that one might knock the sat tv out for a min lol
A very strong rainband just offshore from wilmington.
216. GZ
jedkins we are waiting. I think Wrightsville Beach is experiencing alittle bit of this
another rain band comin in now. gusty with heavy rain. i bet local weather regrets saying the rain would be minimal. people in flood prone areas may need to move now,
sorry that should have said 15-30 mins and as much as an hr away
i hav updated my blog
myrtelb there is a band comming in now that has stronger cells imbedded in it and one of these cells is moving thru ur area right now. behind this mod band is a monster of a band that should be comming in in about 30 mins or so
LOL you know when a radar refelctivity shows up red with a tropical system it is more of a purple or white because of the radar has trouble with the tropical type convection.And that is why red is not that prevelent with a tropical cyclone on radar.So yelllow is more like red and orange or red is like purple with a tropical cyclone.Also the rainfall rate graphic is also significaly less then actual rainrates often with a tropical cyclone on radar.
yeah jed. thats why i said a monster of a band is 30 mins to and hr out from mb and that monster band will smack wilmington as well
Hey Pirate, the WX channel boys were here in MB for Fran or Floyd. It was hysterical. They were wrapped in their "hoodies" looking like they were getting blown around like crazy. Then, in the background, ppl I knew on the beach were walking effortlessly with just t-shirts on. Hell, the sea grass was barely moving!! lol
I wish I was there:( I am in florida in the subsidence in the midst of ophelia which is keeping us from getting are normal wet pattern(I hate ophelia lol).
jed depending on the track i should get a good show in va beach. won't be going there unless i know it will be atleast have decent. something worth taking pics of lol
jed, where you at in Florida? I'm in Rockledge,and it certainly has been dry since O moved away from here
According to the Swedish weather service Maria is coming ashore in Sweden tonight and tomorrow. She will bring the first real early fall storm. The costal areas around southern Sweden have warnings about strong winds 21m/sec and in the Baltic the warning is for a wave surge up to 80 cm. All this nasty weather combined with rain makes it nasty really nasty.
All this as Maria did not hit land anywhere and so she did not lose her energy on her way over here. It is interesting to see the interrealtionship with the tropics and how it develops
If Ophelia keeps moving "just" along the US coast we can expect her here as well in a week or so.
In a NUTSHELL FOLKS: Please remember Safety FIRST!

Listen to the local news for the latest updates on your local area. If you are in "the cone" and on the coast, "hide from the wind, but RUN from the water". Have an evacuation plan. Board and Shutter as needed. Often times damage is caused by tornados and storm surge, NOT just the sustained winds.

Most who post here are not professionals, but enjoy following Tropical Weather.

Please all, tune in to the NWS for your area. Be smart and stay safe.
Near clearwater,it has been a week since rain but something strange I have observed I will tell.We have had over 40 inches in the past 6 months,nothing unusual really for this area but the plants in my yard looked like they were in a rain forest about a week ago,and now they look like they are in a desert.WTH is wrong here,a good half year of good florida soaking rains,week go a WEEK without rain and some of plants appear as though we are in a drought.
yeah fire weed. the becom eatrtropical and slam into europeand cause tons of damage every year. thanks for the update
please stop with the posts...I think the people in here are big boys and girls who know how to take care of themselves in a storm and probably know all the dangers better than most....I think we got it....
interesting fireweed, i often wonderd what happens to storms like that after they slip off the edges of the maps i look at
Pirate...remember..many more just read and lurk, they do not post.
Yes but that you are expierincing is a storm that has lost it's tropical energy sourse and thus in both wind and esspecially rainfall is a speck of what it once was but still interesting I know.
lol likei said a hundred time, if u read this blog and don't listen to urlocal officials or the nws or the nhc they are dumb point and simple
hot strange day on st simons with NW winds blowing out the water and giving us the lowest tides in a long time.
jed extratropical storms while no longer warmcaore can be just a sdamaging. remebr the prfect storm back in 91 or 92. they do plenty of damage to europe
5pm update she is still a ts.
Queen - But I think that the people who read this Blog are not complete idiots. They are aware of the WX around them and have enough smarts to come in out of the rain. It reminds me of this radio commercial where this old man who sounds like he's 95 telling us to not do ANYTHING while you drive LOL
Tons of damge?WTH do the cause tons of damage,eather you are exagerating or that area is NOT well prepared for rugh weather,but the are just gale centers with some steady rain thats about it,but it is an interesting thought that 'a piece of a hurricane' so to speak hits europe.
tking!!!
I DID!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
once again my blog has been updated
jed go look uo the perfect storm. that was a extratropical storm that hit the us rather than europe so you can see what some storms are like in europe, as well as surge and flooding causes tons of damage, very similar to a nor'easter but stronger and winds of 75-100mph are not out of the question in some of the stronger extratropical storms
No they cannot,if that storm hit my are the damage would be very slight,they cannot pack a fraction of what they can in their tropical form but can produce long steady rains and winds as high as 75 or 80 mph gust with the strongest systems but are still pretty firece,esspecially for that area.
"OPHELIA IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... STEERING
CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE."

What happened to NE?..If it doesn't turn NE their track is shot...
OOPS!!! Sorry, message was meant for thurricane, not tking!!! About his blog
That had wind gusts at minimal hurricane force,yes they can reach windspeeds of minimal hurricane status,but all I am trying to tell you they are by no as dangerous as a cat 2 or larger,eccept for those dennis type hurricanes lol.
I guess they're covering their rears because the bamm model looks to be pretty on with this storm...
on the webcam wrightsville beach is starting to look pretty ugly....
Link
I know what the winds were with the pervect storm and winds of 75 to 100 are very rare in fact the perfect storm never had 100 mph winds more like a large category 1 hurricane but still can be quite dangerous at their strongest mainly because they are often large.
right jed but they do casue damage and lots offlooding. thats why the danish people have the best levess in the woprld or they would have a situation like nola and have had them in the past. winds don't do the most damages always. surge and flooding is some of the most devestation part of storms and thats what i was pointing to but they do have winds in the cat1-cat2 range
A Friendly Reminder:
Posted By: Raysfan70 at 12:09 AM GMT on September 13, 2005.
hey all if you would be kind to go to whitewabits blog Link
and just put city and state that you are from so when a storm comes to us along the coast and you are not on the blog he can pin point were you are at so others will know if you are okay. Or MIA in the Blog. Thank YOU.

As we have still not heard from some in the Katrina's area and know just a around about area where they were at.

sustained winds are up to 40....
Lefty calling the nws and nhc dumb?Guess we got another stormtop but more accurate forecasting lol.
hurricanetrack.com has a live web cam set up with current WX data at Ft. Fisher, NC
wow jed ur so wrong on thw winds in the perfect storm
i never called the nws or nhc dumb. jed where did u get that from
i said if ulisten to this blog and not ur local officials or the nws or the nhc, than u are dumb for not listening to them. reread what i wrote


perfect storm had sustained winds of 65 kts and a pressure of 972mb but this might be 2 low as there was no data other than ship reprts. waves were as much as 100+ft high and gusts were over 100mph
jedkins
Of course it is less intense in a sense compared to what is was once but it will be capable of causing a lot of damage. Especially as the trees are still in full leaf and the ground is rather wet.
We had a freak hurricane strength storm in early January when the spruce and pine forests in southern Sweden tipped over and huge areas were like someone had just ironed it. The salvage of timber goes on almost around the clock still and a lot of lakes and a disused airfield are beeing used as storage. On the airfield area at Byholma (aka Mount Byholma) you can see 6 high "piles" about 15 yards high and with a length of about 1,5 miles each!!!. It became a tourist attraction this summer with about 50 000 visitors!!!!
every 24 hours 150 timber trucks unloaded up to the first week in September! If you were to stand all the trucks along each other you would have them reaching from Stockholm to Paris and back!!!
See for yourself:
http://www.langaryd.nu/byholma/
http://svt.se/svt/road/Classic/shared/mediacenter/index.jsp?d=33745&a=414944
For those of you in the MB, SC area, Horry County schools are closed once again tomorrow.
thank you firweed. i as juts about to find some info on soemof those storms u guys get. i know that the levee system in novia scotia is what it is because of those storms and there surge potential. wedon't hear much about the extratropical storms hear in the states as we don't have to deal with them to much. the perfect storm was the only example i knew he would know


hey verticle hows the weather. mean band should be comming onshore in the next 10-15 minutes so it should go down hill quickly
I do not recall any category 2 strength non - tropical system,talk to the NHC I bet they would agree with me on this but because they are often large they do often have quite a bit of wave action and surge causing flooding.Also that is sad that the danish which expierience only extratropical lows or 'gale centers',have a better levve sytem than NO I mean come dang on,this is the U.S.But that is what is annoying,it's like what does the goverment expect th NHC to make better levves and building codes?They are there to warn NOT to have building codes and a better levee sytem.I don't understand why that happened it is like they didn't take it siriously enough(which they didn't)but the NHC is goverment and they do a fine job.So why doesn't the rest take it siriously,florida did a good job handling the four hurricanes last year but the situation with katrina is just plain BAD.........
jed whiole a extratropical storm with sustained winds above strong cat1 strength are rare they do happen and thats what i am trying to explain to you but that there most damaging part is the surge and wave action, as we saw on the gulf coast surge can do what winds can not.
Crap whoops I must be tired or something,I was seeing things and thought you posted that the NWS and the NHC are dumb lol whoops.
Hey Lefty. We now finally have a steady light rain. Mixed in is also some decent gusts once in awhile. Pressure is down to 1005.3 mb. Still waiting for some more significant weather.

BTW, dd the 5 PM update include the latest recon info???
Yes that is true,the surge was very high for a category 4 and that is why,because of the size,but yes I was a bit wrng there i guess I am tired,was reading yor posts wrong lol.
WOW fireweed! Those sites are amazing!!! What will be done with all that timber?
no jed i love the mhc and the mws lol. in fact when i get my degree i would love to work for the nws in sterling near where i live. been meaning to intern up there as well
Ophilia once again a hurricane.
i think so but i still have not found a new recon vortex yet. wewill see. thye shifted the track slightly east proble becasue of the models but let me know casue u should see ur weatehr go down hill here as a nice band is comming onshore, wonder where myrtelb is, she was experiencing worse weather than you. thye might have lost power . if ur still on myrtleb let us know how its going
lol that was quick. iw as off my 2 mins lol
Now there is a new recon update shortly after the 5pm update,winds have reach 75 mph again,it also looks very much like a hurricane now.
Lefty.........your typin skillls r atrocous....lol
yeah my typing sucks and i also have a wireless keyboard and sometiems i miss a key stroke. will try to type slower and read my posts better befor i post
Link

looking at this, there appears to be a SW to NE flow out of the flow about to come up on O
yeah thats the shortwave trough that will push her ne put to sea.
out of the gulf

leftyy, you can't spell and I forget words lol
You know I used to be very anti-NHC back in the day.....they finally got me to come around in the last few years........and then these last two storms, katrina and ophelia......they have no better idea than anyone else.....especially ophelia.....they only missed on katrina for about two days from the time it left florida, katrina kept moving WSW and WSW and WSW.......
cgable
I guess the best will be sawn for construction but most will become your newspaper sometime next year if the can keep it fresh enough which they do by keeping it wet by spraying it constanly. It is fortunate that this part of Sweden has a lot of lakes and fresh water!!
Early this summer everybody was afraid of huge forest fires but nature helped by giving us one of the wettest summer in living memory.
Imagine going into a stormdamaged forest where everything is just a big mess and you never know which tree is free and which will be as thight as a string and snap. About 30 people have lost their lives during clearence work and most of the were very experienced forest workers.
Well this is enough of the aftermath of hurricanes hitting Europe. Take care and I sure hope Ophelia behaves and keeps out to sea
Good night all
Based on the 21Z 5PM EDT position Ophelia has moved on a 12hr track of 352 degrees at 3 Kts. That would be just westward of due north based on the official track positions.
lol yeah my spelling does suck as well. thats the tropical flow in association with ophelia.


the nhs had katrinas track down by fridayeng at 5pm update. i can give u thelink to check it iof u want. they were off by 10 miles on the landfall of katrina 90+hrs out. thats damn good if u tell me. now ophelia is a harder storm to predict as the storm is shallow and the models have not been any good at all
yeah fred so nnw movement lol
ok...my prediction, and then out the door..

I do not see O making landfall at all, she will go N for a time but then turn NE and head out to sea.

this is the nhs disscussion on motion

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345 DEGREES AT 3-4 KT OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS

286. GZ
lots of rain here in Wilmington but waiting for the wind. High tide at 4:33 AM should be rough for Wrightsville/Carolina Beach
weather dude, it doesn't matter if she makes landfall. her wind raddi is so large her strongest winds including those sustained hurricane force winds extend out 60+ miles from the cenetr. this is not like a regular cyclobe where those winds are clos to the cenetr and landfall would matter. thats the difference
As a stormchaser, Im jealous......and I know that people will take exception to my comments......everyone from charleston,SC north should have some fun tonight and tomorrow.....just keep up with the tornado warning and stay away from powerlines and trees that could fall....if your near the ocean, listen to the local officials, and move inland if you have too......if only for a day.......go visit some family........if you see GREEN LIGHTNING thats a sign of transformers blowing up.....means some strong winds are around.....for a stormchaser....this would be a piece of cake.....but it is serious so be very careful.......
gz u should see some strong winds in 30 mins to and hr as a band that is probly the leading eadge of the ts force winds is just off shore and moving in
fsu i ma hoping to get a nice event at va beach probly tomm night depending on track and speed.
Lefty, if you look at the storm verification....from the time katrina left florida.....almost two days of WSW movement was not predicted....they were off......but as soon as she started her turn then they were perfect on landfall
Lefty,

Based on the NHC official positions over the past 12 hrs the track calculates out at 352 degrees not 345 degrees... despite what the discussion says. The 24hr movement calculates out to 323 degrees.

The disscusion calls it a TS but the public advisory now says it's a Cat 1 Hurricane.
Is this your first storm Lefty???? Are you a virgin stormchaser.....LOL
not so. here is the link to all the forcast tarcks issued by the nhc. notice when the track was moved and on what date. than look at when landfall was. also look at when no came into the cone. that was 90+ hrs of time

Link
DURING THE PAST HALF-HOUR...FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA ALONG WITH
STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER SURFACE WIND DATA FROM A
NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA
INDICATE A SMALL AREA OF SURFACE WINDS OF AT LEAST 75 MPH WERE
LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...
OPHELIA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A 75-MPH HURRICANE AS OF 5 PM EDT...
OR 2100Z.

Hey guys I'm back. . . Looks like SC will dodge another bullet.
fred don't argue with me, they issued that motion at 5pm and thats what i gave you


no i chased isabeal back in 2003 and that was in va beach. very exciting. i had planned to be in sc but those plans fell spart as the storm stalled again
good day all,,, here in onslow county, NC,, expected to make landfall about right here or close,,, i will ride it out,, i got two days off work and 3 cases of beer,, oh yea and i picked up projectiles out of the yard...lol well the wind is almost not even blowing yet but the news just said the wind was getting ready to move in... i will keep you up to date
and fred the forcast advsiory was from 530pm and her is that statement on movement

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 3 KT

now u call them and argue with them about it as all i have done is state what they said when it comes to the motion of the storm
thanks low. keepme upto date on your weather. u should see some good winds in a hr or 2
Posted By: HENSCOLASC at 4:43 PM EDT on September 13, 2005.
Queen - But I think that the people who read this Blog are not complete idiots. They are aware of the WX around them and have enough smarts to come in out of the rain. It reminds me of this radio commercial where this old man who sounds like he's 95 telling us to not do ANYTHING while you drive LOL

Henscolasc. Your coment is noted!

From this we must resolve that all who were not prepared in the tragedy in the gulf were complete idiots.If you however feel that safety reminders are not appropriate on DR. Masters Blog I suggest you take it up with him & the Yakuzza. I however feel it is far more appropriate than an hour of sports chit chat!

Thanks you for your valuable time!

Please be safe

Remember Hide from the Wind ** Run from the water!

and from what dr.masters said yetersay he evn changed his motion to what the nhc said as they smoth out the wobles and the track.
lefty i got to go.....im talking about the storm verification on here...wunderground....look at that,.....theres two forecast or maybe three where the NHC had it going north into florida....but katrina went WSW and WSW....look at the storm verification on here for KATRINA.....have fun with Ophelia.....I would......lol
weatherboy i was just going on the forcast tracks from the nhc as thats all that matter. i will and should have tons of pics for you
Lefty,
We may be splitting hairs here but you can calculate the track based on the officail positions. I do my own calculations and came up with 352 degrees. I suspect that either there has been too much rounding off of the official positions or the system is tending to track more northerly than the statements.
hey fsu im fascinted with storms to before you were born started with freddy in 79. just curious before i get back to
katrina cleanup after you chase do you leave after they hit or
do you stay and experience the whole deal, thats what gets me
with this excitement for astorm to hit look at abc news after they hit not so exciting when they are amajor. sorry dont mean to grouchy but as ive told my buddy lefty if you are going to experience it all a lot of people afterwards might could use your help. and please dont brag to much on the nhc mayfield 2
days ago on wwl out of no said they waited to long to issue wat
and warning a threat to no needs 72hrs not 36. as of 5p.m
look at archive on fri 30.0 88.5 thats al/mms. line moved to mth of ms. river 4am sat . sorry to be picky but we in this area get aggravated by people that just want to experience one part storm and hall tail to the ac when the main course sets in . keep up the tracking and the fascination but wish them away from any coastline god bless.
Not too strong and very slow moving, I wanna take my babies out.

http://www.aocb77.dsl.pipex.com/kite1.jpg

Sadly I'll have to swim the Atlantic first LOL :D

Still no wind in SE England, looks like we will get some influence from the lows created by your old hurricanes Maria and Nate this weekend though



yeah jed i do my own calculations as well and yesterday my calculations were close to dr.masters so we all disscussed it and he stated that the nhc has methods to smoth out the track from the wobbles so theur track and speed was accurate. so thats what i state from now on unless i see it overtly off. now ur right we are splitting hairs but i am just stating what they say the motion is.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2005091312&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

and

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?MODEL=ukmet&TIME=2005091300®ION=EUR&FCST=all&LEVEL=500&F1=sknt&F2=none&C1=none&C2=none&VEC=brbk

for the UK.

We love your old hurricane cast offs over here

saint the first storm i cahes was isabeal and i could not stay to hel out as my own community suffere tons of damage. i spen days helping to cut trees with chainsaws and remvoe them from people yeards. i was intending to go and ride this out with stirmjunkie and was prepared to stay and help cleanup as this is part of what we disscussed.
newvortex is out. pressure down to 986


URNT12 KNHC 132147
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/21:04:30Z
B. 32 deg 19 min N
078 deg 04 min W
C. 700 mb 2964 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 313 deg 076 kt
G. 229 deg 047 nm
H. 986 mb
I. 8 C/ 3049 m
J. 11 C/ 3042 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF305 2316A OPHELIA OB 03
MAX FL WIND 76 KT SW QUAD 20:51:20 Z
verticle u still here. how is the weather?
new post u guys. lets move to there
Still here! Wx is non-eventful! Steady light to moderate rain. Breezy with the ocassional gusts up to the mid 30's.

Somehow, I doubt we're going to get 15 inches of rain. I think we will be hard pressed to see 10.
Just went out to dinner in Myrtle beach and missed the 5pm. What is the latest and what can we expect here?
myrtelb new post up join us in there
316. bdnh
Myrtleb: 000
WTNT31 KNHC 132123
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND OPHELIA HAS REACHED HURRICANE
STRENGTH...
...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD...

AT 530 PM EDT...2130Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
TO OREGON INLET CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE NOW IN EFFECT
NORTH OF OREGON INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...
INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 530 PM EDT...2130Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 78.1 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES
SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 110 MILES EAST OF
CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... STEERING
CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OPHELIA IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES FROM THE CENTER. OPHELIA'S STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED
RELATIVELY FAR FROM THE CENTER...ROUGHLY 50 TO 60 MILES...AND THESE
WINDS WILL REACH THE COASTLINE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER.
DURING THE PAST HOUR... NOAA BUOY 41004 LOCATED EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
CHARLESTON REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH WITH A GUST TO 65
MPH...WHILE NOAA BUOY 41013 LOCATED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 47 MPH WITH A GUST TO 58 MPH.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPHELIA. A STORM SURGE OF 8 TO
10 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
10 INCHES OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

REPEATING THE 530 PM EDT POSITION...32.6 N... 78.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT.
Thanks for the ideas about salt water and the drying effect - that makes sense.