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Ophelia stuck again

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:35 PM GMT on September 11, 2005

Ophelia seems intent on going nowhere in a hurry, and is stuck some 250 miles south of Cape Hatteras, NC. Steering currents are very weak, and Ophelia is expected to stay stuck through Monday and probably Tuesday as well. Finally, on Wednesday, a trough of low pressure is forecast to push off the East Coast and nudge Ophelia onto a northward track over North Carolina as a Category 1 hurricane, and perhaps on to New England Thursday or Friday as a 50 mph tropical storm. Some forecast models indicate a slow drift towards the coast may occur Monday and Tuesday, which might bring brief heavy downpours to the Carolinas as the outer bands scrape the coast.

How believable is this forecast track? The average forecast track error for a 3-day forecast is 230 miles, which would mean Ophelia could easily make landfall in South Carolina, or completely miss the U.S. The computer models, which were almost unanimously calling for a landfall in South Carolina a day ago, have now switched to calling for a landfall in eastern North Carolina, a shift of some 300 miles in one day! These forecast models do poorly when steering currents are weak, and it would be no surprise if today's official NHC 3-day forecast is in error by 200 or 300 miles. This means that the hurricane could just as easily hit Myrtle Beach, SC as Cape Hatteras, NC--or may even pass harmlessly out to sea. Still, the fact that the models are mostly clustered over eastern North Carolina dictates that I dutifully project that residents there are at highest risk.

Ophelia's intensity remains about the same--the 9am EDT hurricane hunter mission found a central pressure of 978 mb and top flight-level winds of 74 knots, about what they've been the past day or so. Water vapor satellite imagery continues to show dry air on Ophelia's west side, and visible satellite images show a noticable lack of convection on her west side due to the dry air. The Hurricane Hunters found only a partial eyewall on their last fix, a sign that Ophelia continues to struggle with this dry air.

An additional problem for Ophelia is cold water welling up from the depths. She has been sitting in the same area for almost a day, and this has given time for the winds to churn up cold water from deep blow the hurricane. A drifting buoy to the south of Ophelia reported a 3C temperature drop yesterday, and an examination of the latest SST loop from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division shows a number of areas of upwelling cold water from the areas Ophelia has traversed. In particular, a big blue dot offshore from Cape Canaveral is visible, a location where Ophelia sat for two days stirring up cold water.

On the plus side for Ophelia, the upper-level outflow is the best it has looked, and the wind shear plauging her on the west side has dropped to 5 - 10 knots and is forecast to remain low. If Ophelia can drift away from her present location to avoid the cold waters she is stirring up, she may be able to intensity to a Category 2 hurricane. Any intensification beyond that is highly unlikely, and she will most likely remain a Category 1 hurricane through the next two or three days.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The rest of the tropics are unusually quiet in what is usually the busiest week of hurricane season.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

The GFS has no difference between 18Z and 00Z, except for passage of time. So it does not help my theory one way or the other. Maybe the other models will tell me something. Sound like I will be awake a bit longer.....
18Z 60 hours: Link
00Z 54 hours: Link
feel u 79 and thats the track i imagine she will take in my head just heading into sc nw than a sharp turn with acceleratio to ne after 12-24 hours
Sorry 00Z 54 hours Correct link: Link
Couple of pix of Topsail Island NC surf being kicked up today (Sun) at around 5pm. We were under a Tropical Storm Warning at the time:

Link

Link
79 its hard to take anything from those couple days as she is stationary and just wobbling. we need 3-4 days to see what will actually happen
506. Peff
Lefty....you lived in Hawaii for a time, right? I went to high school there.....those aren't waves :)
The BAMM follows the old GFDL pretty close til the unreasonable cutback.lol.
508. iyou
too bad Cantori wasn't surfing so we could get scale!!
Oh--and Topsail Island is known for having nice and calm barely breaking waves that easy to swim in without being knocked around.

Today was nothing like that!

Sorry lefty, this one is making me impatient, oh well..
If she continues moving for the next 12 to 24 I will have a hard time buying in to the GFS.
lol yeah peff, i was young but remebr the surf very well. i live on ohau and near honollu but we still hand some nice surf on the south side of the island where we lived. but the breakers and ocean are aligned differently so that the waves break away from shore unlike the waves from a hurricane here on the east coast breaking far inshore destroying the beach
i feel u 79 lol
This last one of the waves and washing out at Topsail Island might have some perspective (people in it):

Link

okay thru 4 days the gfs is about the same slightly west if anything. thats huge as they were expecting a shift east so if the gfdl follows suite the forcast will be shifted to about willmington or mb. alos should have the ukmet and nogaps soon as well so we might have a good idea though i want a gfs solution as i would just drive a couple of hours to va beach and have a nice show lol
516. iyou
Beautiful moody shot Coastal!
oh i was watching a live video cam today from their and the waves were huge but thos are the size of waves or bigger u have in hawaii and that was his point. my point to him was the waves break away from shore about 20 feet from shower and so no beach errosion. thje beaches on the east coast are being destroyed like crazy right now
Sorry Left, were on different teams now then. If the GFS did shift a little W then I would expect the GFDL to follow suit.
sj thats what i said. i also said i would hope for a gfs solution but think the gfdl is the likely one. i see her shifting little west as well
She looks real ragged at 2:45Z. She might not be able to rebuild her convection at all. Looks real rough.
Just jokin with ya lefty. I think I will nap till about 2 as the GFDL should be out then. Hope to see some of ya'll then.
Beautiful moody shot Coastal!

-----

Thanks iyou. It was very overcast and windy and the surf crashing was very loud.

As we drove west back out of the storm bands (I guess they were), it cleared right up and was a beautiful super-clear sunny day.

We saw a few (8 or 10) National Guard trucks heading down I40 East towards Wilmington, and we figured they were related to the storm prep, but there was really no way to tell for certain.

sj she is reoprginising right now. the center is fully exposed and that worries me but we will see as she has a very loe pressure and should have no porblem as she works out the dry air
Should be watching this area a little bit northeast of Puerto Rico right now?
yeah i mentioned it like 304 times now as i am watching it
Haha...sorry about that lefty. So what are the chances of it developing in your opinion (and by when)?
Alright Lefty, hope to see you in a hour or so. How long til she reaches the Gulf Stream if she keeps moving W?
not sure wehn but it reminds me alot of how katrina and harvey formed this year. i will check the new gfs when it comes out fully and give u an opinion on what it says as she was spot on in the formation of nate and ophelia in the same area
529. iyou
Coastal - the closest i can get to the Atlantic Ocean is via - http://www.sncsurf.com/ - click on Blockade Runner Live WB - of course, during the day you can see as well as hear the surf - i just might leave this on when i go to sleep! i live on the shores of lake ontario - it has its own violence-nothing like an ocean though ;-)
the gfs does not form anything there thru 7 days but does not mean it won't happen. the gfs does form a cyclone east of the lesser antilies by the end of the week so we might see phillipe form in the next 7-10 days in that area but i will still watch that area near pr
yeah if she will come close to va beach its like 2-3 hrs frommy house. i will be there for the landfall abnd will have plenty of pics to put on my blog. looks like that a sc landfall i would not be able to chase as my wife would miss to much work and i do need to watch the pto she uses a si have jury duty in nov lol
iyou -- thanks for the link. I'll check it tomorrow and bookmark it. I think I had it bookmarked once long ago, but I lost it.

Hello to you up there on the shores of Lake Ontario!

533. Peff
Hey lefty...wat about that area just north of Puerto Rico?

Just kidding :) In the IR loop, it seems to be rotating clockwise...or is that just an illusion?
534. iyou
Sure is gorgeous where you are, even in inclement weather -hope the Guard is there for the storm only!
new vortex out. she is probly not a hurricane right. she should rgain it as in the last views befor the blcack out she was starting to reform a band around the cenetr. we will see


URNT12 KNHC 120421
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/03:50:40Z
B. 31 deg 08 min N
076 deg 31 min W
C. 700 mb 2936 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 213 deg 063 kt
G. 138 deg 052 nm
H. 984 mb
I. 8 C/ 3048 m
J. 12 C/ 3051 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 1716A OPHELIA OB 14
MAX FL WIND 74 KT NW QUAD 00:12:30 Z
BANDING FEATURE NO LONGER PRESENT AT FLIGHT LEVEL. SOME BANDING EVIDENT BLO W/TOPS 080 TO 095.

i dont see that but tehre is a high to its ne that is rotating clock wise
537. Peff
Great link iyou! Thanks!
538. iyou
Lefty - i'm sure you've answered this tons of times but - why the blackout and for how long??
539. iyou
Peff, the other good cam at that site is the Crystal Pier, i like the Kure Beach view - but really could use a cam wiper on stormy days - check it out to-morrow - er, later to-day ;-)
The GOES satellites are solar powered. They are in the Earth's shadow now so they are switched to low-power standby until they come out of the shadow. It's called "the eclipse". I don't have the schedule in front of me, but it is usually a couple of hours this time of year.
goes satelites are solared powered. the earth moves in front of the sun blocking the sun from the satlite so she powers down. when the earth moves she can than power back up. it lasts 2 hrs and it varies what time it goes in to black out by the time of the year. 3 monthts ago the black out was 445utz not its 345utz
542. iyou
That makes sense subtropic, thanks! So much to know and learn.
I tried to save you from having to type all that lefty ;-)
you're quite welcome iyou. Don't forget to thank lefty since he had to type all of that as well ;-)
its ok, questions like that i figure its a race to see who posts first plus its fun to see the same thing explained in deifferent words lol
546. iyou
hehe!! as always, thanks lefty ;-)
So lefty, you have one hand on the car keys and the other on the GFS link?
548. iyou
and hopefully, with the same meaning!! thank you both ;-)
aaaahhh ur welcoem big man lol
550. iyou
lol! subtropic - and another hand with that egg sandwich he mentioned the other day and can't get out of my mind!
naw, if she had did what she was suppose to do a couple days ago i be in sc right now in the middle of a cane but it being later in the week it would force my wife to use more pto, paid time off, than i had planned for and i can't risk that as i have jury duty in nov and she will need the pto than, i am hoping to be able to have a landfall east enough so i can get a good show in va beach like i did for isabeal. va beach is just a couple hours away from my house and would be easier to get to and get out after rather than beoing 8-9 hrs away. thst 16 hrs of travel vs 4 so its almosta whole extra day. u see what i am saying
Yeah. I see what you mean. Well I hope you get something out of it (and not too much of course).
iyou i eat alot of eggs. one of my favorite foods. i take a sandwich roll cut it in half, put provolone on each side and toast it in the overn than i put 2-3 fried eggs on it and eat it with some spicy french fried, i use olebay to spice up both the eggs and the french fries. thats what i have for lunch most days. soooo good
554. iyou
I'm hoping it comes your way lefty and she justs bumps offshore out of harm's way-giving the fishes a little twirl ;-)
hey the worse the better, not wishing asnything bad on anybody, just wanting a good show lol
lefty, I hope your stove isn't electric. If you lose power, you're gonna be hurtin for some fried eggs!
lol i live in a city so we get power back real quick. in isabeal we lost power for 36 hrs but the rural areas around us were out for almost a month
558. iyou
Great, now i'm starving and no eggs and the stores are closed. T-morrow i'll go out into the blue, hot day - weather-related!- and get lots of eggs!
lol eggs are cheap too man. u can get 18 for like 1.330 or around there
Not bad. After Framcis we lost power for almost 2 weeks. Fortunately, we have a natural gas stove and water heater. God bless whoever invented instant coffee.
561. iyou
I love a good crashing storm too - no Hurricanes up here since Hazel, not even many thunderstorms last few years - just blue, beautiful and benign - but yes a hurricane would be scary-i'd be worried for my family/friends, - couldn't imagine going without electricity for a month, but i am resourceful!
sub my stove is eletric but my water heater is gas so atleats i had a warm shower lol albiet in the dark
i love the pwer of them. after chasing isabeal and feeling those 100 mph winds i can not go with out that feeling again. its been almost 2 yerars so i need this one lol
564. iyou
That's cheap for eggs!! It's $2.79 a dozen-Canadian! and our gas is now down to $1.06/litre - it was $1.39/ltr right after Katrina-i bike!!
lefty, isn't that SWEET! Being able to take a hot shower really helped (temporarily) with the heat after the storm. It always feels cool after a hot shower at least for a few minutes. Of course we had no water at all for the first 3 days and it wan't useable for a couple more. It got mighty stanky around here, but once the treatment plant was repaired, I was loving life!
yeah gas shot up to 3.79 where i live but is now below 3.00 again. and yeah eggs are dirt cheap down here. and i lovem. scrabbled, omlets, fired lol i love em
567. iyou
The simple pleasures are the best, the most valued!
iyou. Agreed.
yeah sub a good shower always makes u feel betetr. we were lucky casue the treament plant had back up power so no boiling of water was needed
No word on GFDL,Ukmet, or Nogaps?
I wish. Actually the plant was nearly destroyed. They had to rebuild some of the processing tanks. We were under a boil water order for quite a while and when the plant first came back online, they said not to use the water at all for a couple of days.
572. iyou
It's good to get the previous day off you and be fresh to face whatever is out there! and, armed with an egg sandwich, the world's your oyster!
Just went for a walk on the beach (Rich) and it was beautiful There is a light NW drift in the air, a land breeze setting up and a partly cloudy sky with the first quarter moon to the west and firey Mars shining in the east. There is no high surf, no slow cadence of swells crashing on the beach, no fast moving clouds zipping by. I know that Ophelia is lurking about 290 miles to the east, but there is no sign of her out there at all. None.
I bet with the pressure up to 984 mb and the banding decreasing as noted by the recon, the 2 am advisory will cut her back to tropical storm status.
575. iyou
Sounds glorious St.Simons - and Ophelia is an elusive girl.
lefty, you think the gulfstream will be enough to kick her up again?
sst thats the porblem we used to have befor modern sat imegery and stuff. people would not know there was a storm and it would rush in on them befor they had a chance to get away.
the waters under her are already warm enouigh even while being upwelled to sustain a cat1-cat2. the problem is the dry air intrusion and if not for the dry air she would be a cat 2-3 right now
New Ukmet on Wunderground. Shifted a hair west I think. The end of the Ukmet track seems odd though.
I am acutally surprised that a cat one hurricane is able to cause such great upwelling
its not that great upwelling. water temps 81-83 degress from bouys so its not that bad. the dry air is a sob though and she fights it off all night and thirves during the day. if she could keep the dry air put during the night she could build even higher using the diurinal cycle
The bands are trying to push on shore around Wilmington. Looks like she is trying to pull a little more moisture in.
i can't see crap on the wu modles so i am just waiting for it top come out on my other site lol
yeah u see those, they look strong as well
I know, they should have shrunk that map along time ago!
lol pay ur 5 dolars and we will shrink it lol
On wunderground it looks like they just took the old Ukmet and shited a hair left. Pulls on to off the coast of Chas then N to Wilmington then har right. Left-let me know when you have the new gfdl or nogaps as I really need to go to bed in case I have to work in the morning.
I did damit now where is my shrunk map?
SJ, how are you reading that so precise? I can't see a thing on that model map! Maybe I'm too tired....
as soon a si get it i will let u know
i thinkhe is using som binculars or something lol
Just looking at the specs of color and see how far west they are when she makes her turn.
specks of color for sure. hope these "seeable" models come out soon. can't stay up like last nite.
2am advisory she is still a cane and mvoin west at 5mph
still a cane? Incredible. looks like crap.
yep still a cane, and now less than 285 miles from us. Well bedtime for me, unless someone can tell me how long until the first pics will come after the eclipse
she doesn't look as bad as u think and te pressure is stil 984mb very low pressure
She picked up a little speed there. I would think that we are done with the S movement.
230-245am range till we get the post blackout pics
New pick should be taken in 40 minutes. Give another 20 to get on floater.
low pressure for sure. i think i looked at water vapor and saw a whole lot of dry air on the sw side awhile back. haven't seen her lately i guess.
Just using wunder model map to see how far W she goes and which models are the outliers. Right now the nogaps and gfs are E outliers and the BAMM ukmet and old gfdl are W outliers. I also get about 3 to 6 inches from the screen
In case anyone is interested or wants this for future reference, here are the eclipse schedules: Link
604. iyou
Thanks subtropic - and one last question to anyone, since i wasn't on the computer all day and may have missed it, has Ophelia had an eye at all yet? goodnight gentlemen! ;-)
lol sj going to get a tumor doing that



thanks for the eclipse schedule
yes hse has had a nice eye a couple times that last few days.
mildly interesting that at our offshore buoy the winds have veered a little to the NNE and the seas have kicked up to 6-7 feet. But the pressure here is as steady as can be. Wind from the N at our house is a *little* stronger.
Well lefty, if they would quit stalling on this GFDL and nogaps then I could put myself in the bed. I just know if I try to go now I'll just toss and turn over this dame.
2AM: up from 31.1 to 31.2 and west from 76.4 to 76.6. Isn't that already wnw and not straight west?
sj that bnd is gettin closer to you. also u can see the rain shield and there is some nice conecion in there. would not be suprised to see eh looking nice aftr the blackout
611. iyou
lol! cyclops! eye'll have to pay closer attention! have a great night - something tells me you will ;-)
Sj, hopefully you don't have a crt screen! lol
great link subtropic! Thanks!
goodnight iyou!
anytime stsimmons!
thats casue the high is controling ur weather and ur not in the gradient of the storm


sj looked at the ukmet on my other site and it comes onshore around charleston and tracks up the coast into the outerbank here is the link in case u don't have it

Link
617. iyou
night! lol!!
Heavy rain moving on to wilmington radar.
gfdl be out in a couple mins.
Lefty, the lowest pressure Ophelia has gotten yet is 976 mb I believe. Do you think she will ever beat that, and if so by how much? (not at landfall, just during the course of the storm)
That looks to me like the center stays just off shore of charleston, the canadian model seems to do a similar thing, just does not bring her quite as far west.

GFDL?
i think if the dry air stay out og the cenetr she could get to say 965-970 range
the gfdl has comeout for the depression in the pacific so the gfdl for ophelia should be out in the next 10-15 mins
Thanks I saw I was typing while you were answering my question. Any idea on the Nogaps? And we are what about an hour away from the Bamm?
yeah i guess so
wow gfdl is out. looks like a concensus
Lefty, on the link you provided for the experimental forecasts, do you just keep refreshing until the latest model run is out? Also, thanks for the link.
looks like landfall in wimington nc
lefty, I missed your post about the link earlier. You're welcome. I have gotten plenty of good links for you, so I am glad to return the favor.
yeah but it takes for ever for them to get there. i ahve a txt site that posts the gfdl and bam as soon as they comeout

here is the link

Link
yeah thansk man. i was looking for something like that coupledays ago but gave up lol
The gfdl is on the wunder ground for what it is worth. can't tell crap any more as it has shifted E and all the models are on top of each other. Wilmington landfall looks to be in the cards.
Should have read "I have gotten plenty of good links FROM you..."
new bamm is out and it shifts west again but the rest of th models have a good concensus on wilmington
Mike actually finds my hurricane obsession interesting, he thinks that there will not be a landfalling major hurricane in GA in our lifetimes. He also thinks that the coast here will boom because of repeated hurricane disasters in other places, and that a lot of the baby boom generation will decide to retire here. He has some odd thoughts :) Does anyone here have any idea whether the general public when dediding where to retire is even AWARE of hurricane frequency at different coastal locations?


If Ophelia makes landfall below 970, she would be strong enough to cause a lot of problems I think.
yeah sj. u guys sould see some 34kt sustained winds and higher gusts and rain but thats about it
Looks as though we will have some wind afterall here in MB. i guess now it all depends on exact rack and what effect the GS willhave on feeding Ms. O!
yeah shes forcast to gradually itensify by the ships model just out so she could catch a burst and get there but we will see
I don't remember who responded from Cary but thank you from Jill. I too was caught totally unprepared by Fran. I think we all were so I'm watching this closely.

I agree about the consensus lefty, the only hold out question I have is -Are the models accounting for the increased westward forward spped and did they intialize her as far south as she is now?
yeah mb should see sustained winds of 50kts or more and gust over hurricane force as well as alot of rain.
I don't need lefty this time to tell me what Ophelia's impact on us will be--nothing!
i don't know sj. best guess would be to ad 25-50 miles to the track and figure landfall closer to mb but i think a sc landfall near charleston is probly unlikley but not out of the question till she makes a turn northward. best bet is the 5am advisory and see where they shift their track as they will have to shift it west
The W motion could really wreak havoc on a lot of the Carolina coast line if there is a small shift W. Would not take much more than a large wobble.
yeah i feel ya sj. i am just basing my forcast on the models as they are now. this whole thing could be off by 200-300 miles either way. but right now it looks goodas the models ahve been calling for this general area for a couple days now, about 6-8 model runs
25 Myrtle beach 50 Charleston this coastline is crazy with this kind of storm.
i'm wrecked! goodnite all. it was fun and informative. thanks for the info, links, etc. monday should be interesting.
latest vortex message up to 985 mb Ms O is feeling poorly
goodnight vertical.
Alright Lefty and crew I am off to bed. Will be intresting to see what the NHC has to say in the morning. Those next model runs will be intresting too as there is something getting just a little out of wack with the upper air models and the others. Don't know which to trust now. Maybe none of em. Goodnight.
yeah but she still had flight level winds of 78 kts. thats still 64-66 kts at the surface keeping her a hurricane
goodnight stormj.
lol alright sj goodnight
sleepy time for me as well. Night all!
nite stsimons.
night sts
well lefty, I'm not sure who's left on here, but I'm out as well. I have more to do tomorrow than I care to think about. Have a good one!
night subtropic
Hi,

so whats happening with Ophelia, is she still meandering westwards or is she looping the loop?
just check the latest advisory and she is moving west a 3 mph
661. GZ
kiw I wouldnt concern myself too much with a loop. its looking more and more like a hit for us here in Wilmington, but I think the question will be, does Ophelia come on shore as a 1 or a strong TS?
putting up the plywood Cantore's in town.
GZ,
With the models handling this the way they have be prepared for a cat 2. They are historically not real good with intensity. Factors are in place for rapid intensification before landfall. It looks ragged now but that could changw quick. JMO
664. GZ
good call Kill, I think Ive been watching the local news too much. They are starting to cancel schools and evacuate beach areas in Brunswick County just to the south of us here in Wilmington. I would imagine this trend will continue.
665. GZ
if anyone is awake, what should we expect as far as storm surge if Wrightsville Beach, Wilmington area gets a direct hit from a strong one, weak 2?
hey everyone...noob here...been watching the posts but never saying anything for awhile now...im just SE of richmond...whats the chance of an isabelle impact type from O in my area...we lost power in the area for 1-3 weeks in my area...and had 2 f1's come through my neighborhood...love canes and am interested...but i dont wanna have to deal w/ that clean up again..what do yall think is the chance??
Ok I've been lurking and learning for a couple of days. I'm 70 miles from the NC coast in Lumberton but I have a camper at Holden Beach. The reason for the school closings in Brunswick county is due to a voluntary evacuation. They close the schools so that people wanting to leave won't have to worry about students being absent. This happens everytime it looks like landfall may be within a reasonable proximity. For what it's worth I have been watching the NHC website and I think they are using the SWAG method.(Scientific Wild A$$ Guess)
668. GZ
makes sense Rebel. I would imagine New Hanover to do the same later today. stay safe down there!
From Steve Gregory 9/11/05 421 PM CDT

"the storm surge from this very slow moving storm could be
1 full category above the reported wind speeds due to the very prolonged period of gale and storm force winds."

Check your ocean tides heights. High tide levels are a little above normal going into a full moon phase on the 18th. The southern sounds are also above normal due to the prolonged NE winds and sloshing effects and the higher than normal high tides. also when the high ocean tides bring more water into the sounds it has a hard time getting back out with the strong NE winds. The northern sounds are extremely low due to this. When the back side of the hurricane passes and the wind switches all the southern water will come north causing widespread flooding around the northern sounds. Add a large rain event to all this and a surge up to 10' and you cannot take this lightly. This last paragraph is my personal opinion based on my own observations.
Well unless my eyes are deceiving me she has stopped again. Just like a woman...can't make up her mind...LOL
671. GZ
thank you kill. Im headed downtown to work, it still seems like people here are passing this off as a wind and rain event. I just dont think thats the case.
I just wish this storm would start moving so I'd know what to do...We went out and bought supplies thinking we were going to see something sunday night or Monday afternoon...now they're talking wednesday....My 3 sons are going to eat all the supplies before the storm gets here...LOL...I ordered 3 cases of MRE's last week and they're supposed to be here today..hopefully..just to have on hand....At this time the eye is suposed to pass over my house in central carteret county...but the thing won't start moving and the way this storm has been there's no telling what it'll end up doing...
reminds me of Bonnie when it went through here...sloooowwwwwwww........this thing needs to pick up speed or down east is going to have a mess....
If this crazy bat takes the Ukmet or Nogaps soultions we could still be dealing with this thing in another week. crazy. It will be intresting to see the next model runs as thoughs are the ones that have shown the shifts. She is nuts. Wait and see now for over a week now!
Hey SJ. Catch a break with work today?
Good morning from The Bahamas :)
Just glad to be here after some extreme thunderstorms yesterday -- the possible result of Ophelia's reach into our area.
Check this out:
Link

Electricity went out islandwide -- over 100,000 persons estimated to be out of power yesterday!

The area of the island where I live is still out and we heard at least 4 transformers explode in a row :(

Didn't even know about the funnel cloud until I saw that link.

And now I see that we have some more severe weather heading our way from the east ... Ah well :(
Here's a good site I use. The still web cams have a delay but usually stay cleaner, longer than the local surfer sites. The wind and waves have come down some since yesterday to 6'. My barometer has been rising this morning as is now steady at 1026 mb.

Army Corps of Engineers Feild Research Facility, Duck Pier, Duck NC:

www.frf.usace.army.mil/
Looks as if she is trying to rebuild some convection. The day time heating may actually help her today. Appears she has been moving a hair N of W also.
Not wiht that speed VHE. Won't be til tomorrow if I do. I did not even call the voice exchange to check though. Could show up and no one be there. If schools are open then work is open!
1017mb here in Charleston Killdevil. Don't know what that means though. I think it explains the continued drift to the W. Having a hard time going W, but a harder time going N.
yea I put that out there to see what everyone would make of it. I think it may indicate that the steering component is coming into play. Cantore's in town uh-oh.
This is just a guess but if the barometric pressure starts going up by you would it mean that will trigger the turn to the north if high pressure is building towards the east?? Lefty should be up soon unless he's on the way down here. Not talking evac yet here.
Pressure here in MB is 1015.8 mb if anyone is interested. Been a painfully slow drop since yesterday. Winds about 18 mph gusting to about 24 or so. Overcast again.
man...... sitting here in myrtle beach, i feel like we are playing a game of chicken! LOL

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kltx.shtml

the outer bands are approaching the coast, and let me tell you, the local officials are getting a little nervous.

school is in session, but there is talk of a call for a voluntery evacuation if the westward motion continues.

geez, will this storm ever make a run to the coast! LOL

I know many other factors play into it but low pressure is akin to path of least resistance wouldn't you say?
thelmores, hello. here in MB as well. Where are you getting your info on the local officials? local TV?? Sun news?? Just curious as I have only sat tv.
Outflow is really expanding. The WV loop is showing the big dynamics, just wish I could interpret them better. She doesn't look to be moving much.
vertical, nice to meet you.....

my information came from the loacl talk radio (99.7fm).

there is certainly nothing official, but i did see several dozen police officers at that motel near the tanger outlet. either they were giving away free doughnuts, or they are getting prepared for something! LOL

there has been some talk of voluntery evacuation IF the westward motion continues into the afternoon, due to the close proximity of the storm, as well as the NHC's inability to nail down the forecast.

guess we will see. seems the schools would be the first to flinch, so we will have to monitor the motion the next several hours. if there appears a turn to the NW, i would assume there would be little action required. But if this westward motion continues, well.........
New thread. Dr. Masters update. All we know is we don't know.
Looks like she is getting squeezed a little from the WSW on visible.
thelmores, nice to meet you too. thanks for the info.

is that the Tanger outlet on 501? or the one in NMB?

My 13 yr old daughter is hoping the schools flinch. Especially if it means Ms. O is heading closer to us. She was pretty bummed out when she saw yesterdays tracks to the obx. crazy like her dad.
tanger outlet on 501...... saw a bunch of highway patrols, county, etc....... whatever motel that is behind smokers express.....

thanx, thelmores.

i'm so sick of 501 traffic and I'm not even taling bout the tourists. the bypass is pretty bad anymore too. jees, what's going to happen if people freak and try to leave at the last minute?!

maybe the cops where prepping. although you can NEVER rule out doughnuts!!!
I ALSO POSTED THIS IN THE NEW BLOG.... BUT FOR THOSE STILL HERE.....

i have just received word that the governor of SC will issue a voluntery evacuation for the coast of Horry county (myrtle beach) this afternoon. This is not official, but i did receive it from a reliable county official.

sounds like fun! LOL

i would believe this would also include charleston,sc as well.....
thelmores, if you're still here, please forgive my "newbieness" but where is the new blog?
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=110&tstamp=200509&allcomments=1

this is the blog of Dr. Masters latest update......
11 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005

LATEST DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE INDICATED A PEAK 700
MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 63 KT. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 60 KT...ALTHOUGH THIS IS PROBABLY GENEROUS GIVEN THE
LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION TO TRANSPORT MOMENTUM VERTICALLY. THUS THE
SYSTEM IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THIS ADVISORY.
OPHELIA HAS NOT MOVED MUCH OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO
UPWELLING AND STIRRING HAS LIKELY COOLED THE WATERS. SHIP AND
DRIFTING BUOY DATA SUGGEST THAT THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY
HAVE DECREASED TO BELOW 26 DEG C BENEATH THE STORM CENTER. THE
TRACK FORECAST TAKES OPHELIA OVER A SECTION OF THE GULF STREAM...
WHERE A MODESTLY DEEP WARM WATER MIXED LAYER...I.E. HIGHER OCEANIC
HEAT CONTENT...COULD INDUCE RE-STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM RE-ATTAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH
BEFORE NEARING THE COAST.

AFTER COMPLETING A SMALL CLOCKWISE LOOP...THE STORM IS MOVING VERY
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...315/02. BECAUSE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE
SO ILL-DEFINED...THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS A DIFFICULT ONE. SOME
GLOBAL MODELS...NAMELY NOGAPS AND THE CANADIAN...INDICATE THAT THE
BROAD 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS WILL LACK SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO PICK UP OPHELIA
AND ACCELERATE IT NORTHEASTWARD. THEREFORE WE HAVE THE UNPLEASANT
POSSIBILITY THAT THE CYCLONE COULD LINGER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE GFS AND GFDL STILL MOVE OPHELIA NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE ATLANTIC BEYOND 3 DAYS...BUT THEY ARE SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN
THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. IN DEFERENCE TO THIS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE 3-5
DAY TIME FRAME.

FORECASTER PASCH



5 DAYS!!!!!!!!!! THIS THING IS DRIVIN ME NUTTS! LOL