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Ophelia strengthening; Typhoon Nalgae a new threat to the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:51 PM GMT on September 29, 2011

Tropical Storm Ophelia is strengthening as it pulls away from the Lesser Antilles Islands and heads north-northwest. Recent satellite loops show that Ophelia has developed a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of high cirrus clouds over its core, which is characteristic of strengthening tropical storms that are nearing hurricane intensity. Dry air and moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots are slowing down Ophelia's intensification, but by Friday morning, wind shear is expected to fall to 10 - 15 knots, and remain below 15 knots through Sunday morning. This should allow Ophelia to intensify into a hurricane on Friday. Most of the models agree that Ophelia will track far enough to the east of Bermuda that the island should see sustained winds below 45 mph, since it will be on the weak (left) side of the storm. We can't rule out the possibility that Bermuda will receive hurricane force winds yet, but the odds are low--the 5 am wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda just a 3% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. Ophelia's closest approach to the island will be late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Ophelia is likely to bring high winds and heavy rains to Southeast Newfoundland Sunday night, as a weakening tropical storm.

In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe is headed west-northwest, and is not expected to trouble and land areas. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with little heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is expected to diminish some today over the storm, which should allow the storm to intensify. However, by Saturday, Philippe will be encountering very high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots associated with the upper-level outflow from Ophelia. This shear will probably be high enough to destroy Philippe by Monday. In the event Philippe does survive the shear, the storm could penetrate far enough west that Bermuda might need to be concerned with it.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the computer models is calling for a new tropical storm to form in the coming seven days. The large-scale environment over the Atlantic currently favors sinking air, due to the current phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This situation will likely last well into next week, and will discourage formation of new tropical storms. The MJO is a 30-60 day cycle of thunderstorm activity that affects the tropics.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Ophelia, showing the large Central Dense Overcast (CDO) that has formed.

Typhoon Nesat battering China
Typhoon Nesat hit China's Hainan Island today as a Category 1 typhoon with 75 mph winds. While Nesat's winds and storm surge will not cause major damage, it is a very wet storm, capable of dropping up to 8 inches of rain in 24 hours, according to latest satellite rainfall forecasts. Haikou on Hainan Island recorded a wind gust of 78 mph and 3.23" of rain as the eyewall passed just to the north. Nesat will hit Vietnam near Hanoi as a tropical storm on Saturday.

Nesat roared across Luzon Island in the Philippines Monday as a powerful Category 3 typhoon with 120 mph winds, leaving 35 people dead and 45 missing. The Philippines has a new worry today: Typhoon Nalgae has formed 700 miles to the east of Luzon Island, and is expected to follow a course just to the north of Nesat's. Nalgae is expected to intensify into a major Category 3 typhoon and hit the northern portion of Luzon on Saturday afternoon, local time. With soils on the island already saturated from the heavy rains Nesat brought, the new typhoon promises to bring heavy flooding to Luzon this weekend.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS image of Typhoon Nesat over the South China Sea taken at 1:35 pm local time September 28, 2011. At the time, Nesat was a Category 1 typhoon with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Wow. First?
Thanks Dr. Masters for the update. :)
Thank you, Dr. Masters.
Ophelia, who would have thought she would become a hurricane after her eulogy? Damn nature you scary.
It is looking like the only threat for the U.S. will be a Caribbean system. Doubt any system from the Atlantic comes this far west.
I see the TX drought is getting worse.


Link
Thanks Doc.
Quoting MahFL:
I see the TX drought is getting worse.


Link


D: I thought they just got rain!
Thankful that the number of killed or missing is so low on Luzon after Nesat. Hopefully Nelgae will not hit it.. that would be very bad. Looks like moisture from Hilary is already heading east, may just wind up in the GOM instead of helping TX :(
For the Houston/Galveston areas, it would take a foot of rain just to get to the orange/severe category from the dark red exceptional category

Texas drought + austerity/anti-public services = disaster upon the people amplified: http://www.truth-out.org/eyewitness-texas-wildfire s-watches-austerity-burn-rural-communities/1316539 895
Cracks in Roads Concern Houston Firefighters
By Mary LeeStory by click2houston.com

Posted: Thu, 09/29/2011 - 01:09am
Updated: Thu, 09/29/2011 - 01:18am

HOUSTON --

A cracked road is causing huge problems for firefighters.

Houston firefighters at Fire Station No. 55 are concerned their fire engines could tip over on South Acres Drive between Cullen and MLK boulevards.

The cracks are deep and the elevation difference of the cracks is at least a few inches.

Fire Station No. 55 reported the road to the city on July 18. Firefighters said they try to avoid the road, or at least drive in the middle of the street, to avoid the huge cracks.

The city said it is aware of the problem and said it is doing its best to fix it and the other damaged roads around the city.

City officials said the drought is causing the roads to buckle, crack and shift.

Link

and another
Link
Thanks Dr. Masters and What a beautiful day in Tampa Bay in many ways than just the Weather!
Thanks Jeff...
ECMWF and GFS show nuttin' in the ATL/CAR/GOM for 2 weeks?! Then a big fat hurricane starts heading North through the Yucatan channel...
Quoting JNCali:
ECMWF and GFS show nuttin' in the ATL/CAR/GOM for 2 weeks?! Then a big fat hurricane starts heading North through the Yucatan channel...



Ye ha !!!! a hurricane :)
ophelia up to 70mph ace going up thanks to her
hilarys ACE over 30. pacific ace might not be below average after all
Quoting JNCali:
ECMWF and GFS show nuttin' in the ATL/CAR/GOM for 2 weeks?! Then a big fat hurricane starts heading North through the Yucatan channel...

The return of Wilma?
:0
Ophelia and Philippe - two weak, pathetic systems with absolutely no chance of having any kind of impact on the U.S. Who really cares about these two systems? And looking ahead, none of the 5 reliable global models foresee anything developing within the entire Atlantic Basin at least for the next 10 days.

A very boring, uneventful hurricane season indeed. Never seen anything like this.
Quoting ITCZmike:
Ophelia and Philippe - two weak, pathetic storms with absolutely no chance of having impact on the U.S. Who really cares about these two systems? And looking ahead, none of the 5 reliable global models foresee anything developing in the entire Atlantic Basin at least for the next 10 days.

A very boring, uneventful hurricane season indeed. Never seen anything like this.

Boring?

How about this:
Over 10 billion dollars in damage, Total fatalities: 118.
So it's a bust huh?
Go away.
And you should see the damage of Irene. Link
Quoting Hurricyclone:

Boring?

How about this:
Over 10 billion dollars in damage, Total fatalities: 118.
So it's a bust huh?
Go away.
And you should see the damage of Irene. Link
what he probably meant was the actuall intensity of the storms which was pretty pathetic because of the extreme low vertical instabitliyt. sure irene was an extrmely damaging hurricane that wont be forgoten but the actuall intensity of north atlantic cyclones has been rather weak so far. this season is much worse than 2010 becuase 2010 didnt see a hurricane make landfall in the US and cause 10 billion dollars in damage did it? mjo coming back in 2 weeks. very good chance we get at least 2 to 4 more hurricanes before season is out. if ophelia becomes one then i think the season will end with 20 ts 7 hurr and 4 maj :)
Quoting ITCZmike:
Ophelia and Philippe - two weak, pathetic systems with absolutely no chance of having any kind of impact on the U.S. Who really cares about these two systems? And looking ahead, none of the 5 reliable global models foresee anything developing within the entire Atlantic Basin at least for the next 10 days.

A very boring, uneventful hurricane season indeed. Never seen anything like this.

I am very glad haven't had to shutter the house yet, there have been years shutters up shutters down 3 to 4 times. I do not like shuttering the house.
If you are a satellite looking down from space, it has been an uneventful and boring hurricane season. Think that is what people refer to as uneventful
Quoting TampaSpin:
Thanks Dr. Masters and What a beautiful day in Tampa Bay in many ways than just the Weather!


+1000 Go Rays
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
what he probably meant was the actuall intensity of the storms which was pretty pathetic because of the extreme low vertical instabitliyt. sure irene was an extrmely damaging hurricane that wont be forgoten but the actuall intensity of north atlantic cyclones has been rather weak so far. this season is much worse than 2010 becuase 2010 didnt see a hurricane make landfall in the US and cause 10 billion dollars in damage did it? mjo coming back in 2 weeks. very good chance we get at least 2 to 4 more hurricanes before season is out. if ophelia becomes one then i think the season will end with 20 ts 7 hurr and 4 maj :)

Well yeah.
But the season isn't over
Quoting LiveToFish0430:


+1000 Go Rays

sorry but im an o's fan
yeah they suck but i dont care
Quoting Hurricyclone:

sorry but im an o's fan
yeah they suck but i dont care


I was really pulling for the O's last night. They got the job done. Boston is going home. what a great night of baseball
TS.Ophelia's_12pmGMT_ATCF : Starting 28Sept_12pmGMT and ending 29Sept_12pmGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormOphelia's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 29Sept_12pmGMT,
the coastline blob at 35.444n76.015w-7w6 is the endpoint of the 29Sept_6amGMT
straightline projection connected to its nearest airport,
and the coastline blob at 35.91n75.596w-meo is the same for the 29Sept_12amGMT.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
TS.Ophelia's travel-speed was 11.8mph(19k/h) on a heading of 320.5degrees(NW)
TS.Ophelia was headed toward passage over Marshallberg,NorthCarolina ~4days14hours from now

Copy&paste 35.91n75.596w-meo, 35.444n76.015w-7w6, 18.4n59.8w-18.8n60.2w, 18.8n60.2w-19.2n60.5w, 19.2n60.5w-19.7n60.9w, 19.7n60.9w-20.5n61.6w, axa, 19.7n60.9w-34.728n76.506w, mrh into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 29Sept_6amGMT
Quoting LiveToFish0430:


I was really pulling for the O's last night. They got the job done. Boston is going home. what a great night of baseball

Forgot to see it because my mom doesn't let me stay up late :(
70mph Tropical Storm Ophelia

On its way to becoming the 4th hurricane this year.
Quoting Ameister12:
70mph Tropical Storm Ophelia

Really changed
looks like an eye trying to pull out there!
I think it's atleast a hurricane now
Quoting Hurricyclone:

Forgot to see it because my mom doesn't let me stay up late :(


IT WAS HISTORIC in many ways.......WOW! NEVER GIVE UP IN WHAT EVER YOUR DOING! That was the message last nite. UNREAL
Quoting Hurricyclone:

Really changed
looks like an eye trying to pull out there!
I think it's atleast a hurricane now

Yeah, I think so too.
The Weather is great in Tampa today and the next 7 days look fantastic. What a day Monday will be! RAYS game in the afternoon and then MNF with the BUCS with my family all flying down from INDY! Got 5 tickets for the BUCS Game and getting 5 tickets for the RAYS GAME.....WHAT DAY with great weather forecast also!!
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 AM AST THU SEP 29 2011

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DEFINITELY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE
YESTERDAY...AND NOW IT IS VERY SYMMETRIC WITH A WELL-DEFINED
CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. I EVEN SUSPECT THAT AN
EYE FEATURE COULD BE FORMING.
THE OUTFLOW IS TRYING TO EXPAND
WESTWARD...BUT UPPER-LEVEL HOSTILE WINDS JUST WEST OF THE CYCLONE
ARE DISRUPTING IT AT THIS TIME. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE
INCREASED TO 3.5 AND 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. ON THAT BASIS..THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE BUT NOT HOSTILE
ENOUGH TO PREVENT OPHELIA FROM BECOMING A HURRICANE BY THE END OF
THE DAY...AS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL LGEM. BEYOND 72 HOURS
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...AND THE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
WEAKENING...AND MOST LIKELY OPHELIA WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY 96
HOURS.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS.
THE STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED...AND I FACT...IT IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT HAS PREVAILED THIS SEASON SO FAR. THE
COMBINATION OF A TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC CALLS FOR A GENERAL NORTHWARD
TRACK FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THEREAFTER...A TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS
OPHELIA BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. THE
TRACK...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS IS CENTERED WITHIN THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. AT THIS
TIME...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...ALTHOUGH VERY
CLOSE...DOES NOT REACH BERMUDA.

BASED ON DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41044 THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND
RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. ONCE AGAIN THESE
BUOYS ARE PROVING TO BE VERY VALUABLE IN TRACKING TROPICAL CYCLONE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 20.9N 61.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 22.1N 62.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 24.0N 63.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 26.5N 63.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 29.5N 63.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 38.5N 60.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 50.0N 52.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/1200Z 55.0N 40.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



Dr. Masters saying that nothing appears to be heading toward the ConUS i hope was not a little early to predict. I hope he is correct as some models would tend to disagree with him with Philippe. NOT SURE!
Quoting TampaSpin:
Dr. Masters saying that nothing appears to be heading toward the ConUS i hope was not a little early to predict. I hope he is correct as some models would tend to disagree with him with Philippe. NOT SURE!


Good point.
Phillippe's models have it heading even as far west as the bahamas.
So it is good to keep an eye
Quoting Hurricyclone:


Good point.
Phillippe's models have it heading even as far west as the bahamas.
So it is good to keep an eye


No computer models come near the Bahamas with Philippe:




Quoting Hurricyclone:


D: I thought they just got rain!

Texas is a very big state. And then there is rain and - - - rain. 10 miles from the Gulf, 50 miles south of Houston, we got "rain" this morning, but it was so little that areas under the trees stayed totally dry. Houston itself got none as far as I could see.
Quoting cchsweatherman:


No computer models come anywhere near the Bahamas with Philippe:



WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT!

Quoting cchsweatherman:


No computer models come anywhere near the Bahamas with Philippe:





You're right. Phillippe will most likely curve before the Bahamas and may just take a swipe at Bermuda.
ok question people :) what motion would a hurricane have to take right now in the gulf of mexico to NOT WEAKEN right now there are 50 knots of westerlies across the gulf. what cardinal direction would that hurricane have to take?
a: north
b: north east
c: south
d: south east
e: west
f: west north west
g: east
h: east north east
?? what do you guys think?
Quoting TampaSpin:


WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT!



Interesting. I'm looking at the model plots at the SFWMD.
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Interesting. I'm looking at the model plots at the SFWMD.



Ya......it is certainly not closed as to where he will be going.
please do not say that
Quoting TampaSpin:


IT WAS HISTORIC in many ways.......WOW! NEVER GIVE UP IN WHAT EVER YOUR DOING! That was the message last nite. UNREAL


Yes Keep walking in live!
Quoting lhwhelk:

Texas is a very big state. And then there is rain and - - - rain. 10 miles from the Gulf, 50 miles south of Houston, we got "rain" this morning, but it was so little that areas under the trees stayed totally dry. Houston itself got none as far as I could see.

And then there's rain that falls but evaporates before it hits the ground, goes back up into the cell and dumps it on NE LA and MS. That's what happened to the 'rain' the radar says we got the last few days.
TampaSpin are you seriously saying it is going to get through all the westerlies and hit florida? REALLY? jesus wept we really do get some wishcasting type of people on here, who rather than look at science and the upper level atmosphere decide that they can wish something to come their way.
Quoting RitaEvac:





They might have to add another color/level to that chart soon :(
And how can you even determine that the GFDL is throwing it towards florida? yes it turns it to the west but whos to say it wont turn it back to the north and north east before florida?
Quoting KUEFC:
TampaSpin are you seriously saying it is going to get through all the westerlies and hit florida? REALLY? jesus wept we really do get some wishcasting type of people on here, who rather than look at science and the upper level atmosphere decide that they can wish something to come their way.



I never said that. I am just showing what the models are showing. Never said it would hit florida. Another blogger just said there was no model support for coming anywhere near the Bahamas. I was simply showing there is.
Quoting muddertracker:

They might have to add another color/level to that chart soon :(


Like white, stating dire.
Quoting KUEFC:
And how can you even determine that the GFDL is throwing it towards florida? yes it turns it to the west but whos to say it wont turn it back to the north and north east before florida?


That would be the most likely scenario, especially in October with the troughs coming across for a quick 'pick-up'.
Does anyone have a link to that chart that shows the formation history of storms during the month of October?
Quoting RitaEvac:
If you are a satellite looking down from space, it has been an uneventful and boring hurricane season. Think that is what people refer to as uneventful
still nothing in the carib of recent p542 had a good map of oct origions
Thanks, Patrap :-)
..anytime, sharing is what this is all about.
Quoting MahFL:



Ye ha !!!! a hurricane :)
Wow......enjoy it.
Well comparing Ophelia with how she looked at 3am and now and I must say, wow!
Quoting cchsweatherman:


No computer models come near the Bahamas with Philippe:




Not near, but in the route to the bahamas, so who knows they should keep and eye on him,, just in case.
Quoting ITCZmike:
Ophelia and Philippe - two weak, pathetic systems with absolutely no chance of having any kind of impact on the U.S. Who really cares about these two systems? And looking ahead, none of the 5 reliable global models foresee anything developing within the entire Atlantic Basin at least for the next 10 days.

A very boring, uneventful hurricane season indeed. Never seen anything like this.


Ask the people in the NE if this has been a boring season.
Quoting JLPR2:
Well comparing Ophelia with how she looked at 3am and now and I must say, wow!

She's gotta be a hurricane now.
She already has that look
Highest probability of significant tropical storm formation threatening the U.S. will come from the Caribbean in October.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Highest probability of significant tropical storm formation threatening the U.S. will come from the Caribbean in October.

Texas feels sad
Quoting Hurricyclone:

She's gotta be a hurricane now.
She already has that look


Yeah, if it isn't one already, it is well on its way to be a cane.
Oh that's great Patrap there are arrows everywhere except over Fl. . Is that a plus or minus for Florida. Lastly a little analogy for poor Texas, if you are crawling along in the desert and someone spits on you I don't think that helps your situation much. But God willing maybe your creek will rise.
whether it happens or not, Florida is the state most at risk for tropical cyclones in October due to deep troughs and weaknesses in high pressure in the midwest

Florida better watch out. season ain't over by any means
Wait till you guys see what the GFS has in store for the Caribbean around the 2nd week of Oct...it will make some go hmmm...& fancy some minds :P
Quoting Patrap:
I wonder why it's different than NOAA? I mean way different!
Pretty much everything that forms in the Caribbean in October will eventually go North then North East.
Bastardi tweets that the Caribbean will supply an interesting end game to the hurricane season in the next couple of weeks.
The Image I posted shows the "origins" as well as favored tracks..

The NOAA Image denotes tracks only.

Suttle differences, but the same overall.
please share
exactly
With High TCHP, still in a lot of the Basin, October can wreak Havoc as many a past year show us easily.



my fear is that his tweet will turn out to be correct. I start fretting when it's october and a caribbean storm is brewing....only state I see is florida
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Pretty much everything that forms in the Caribbean in October will eventually go North then North East.
It will all depend on where the greatest area of low pressure forms, if it forms off the coast of Venezuela it will likely head north towards Cuba and Hispaniola then northeast, if it forms farther west then FL. comes into play, these troughs coming down from Canada are strong, so anything that forms down there will feel its influence.
If anyone is interested. You can go to this site and it will show you all the topical storm and hurricane tracks over a 100 year period per month.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/forecaster_handbooks/C entralAmerica/Forecasters%20Handbook%20for%20Centr al%20America%20and%20Adjacent%20Waters%20Appendix%2 0C.pdf
The First really cool shot is settling in tonight and esp tomorrow in Dixie,,



Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
1138 am CDT Thursday Sep 29 2011


Short term...
17
moisture axis has moved SW and is located along the miss river westward.
This is also where any ts activity should be located...along and
west of the miss river. Ts activity is not expected to be
widespread but with cold temperatures and some dry air still left at
500mb the potential for a strong or isolated severe ts will
continue this morning. Moisture will begin to flush by afternoon
and probability of precipitation will go along with it. So if it does not happen by
2pm...it may not happen at all. Cold front comes in and bridges
the old fronal boundary sending cool dry air into the region by
Friday around noon. This continues into the night hours making things
feel a little more like fall. Cool temperatures remain through at least
the first part of next week mainly due to cloud cover moving in
capping the modification of the air mass. Moisture and warmth will
begin to return though by the latter half of the week.
89. 7544
hmm this looks intresting lets see what the next few runs show could our p strom get even that far west then keep going west looks like its going to be all about timing again wait watch and see mode Link
Quoting Patrap:
With High TCHP, still in a lot of the Basin, October can wreak Havoc as many a past year show us easily.




Thank God TX has that untapped warm water in the WGOM... now if something would just come along and DO SOMETHING with it! That rain you got the other day was from centex: it 'rained' then evaped back up before it hit the ground, and then went on to LA.
Quoting RitaEvac:
For the Houston/Galveston areas, it would take a foot of rain just to get to the orange/severe category from the dark red exceptional category

That holds true for majority of Texas. Looking at my rainfall totals the past 18 months majority of my rain fell last September thanks to tropical rains, just shows you if Texas does not get tropical rains or have an active El Nino most likely this state will not get much rain. Texas had their chance with a tropical system but the dry air killed it. That is the problem right now there is not enough moisture at all levels of the atmosphere. Radar is showing good rains but alot of that is not reaching the ground. I am not sure what can change this? I am tired of having 3 hour storms that drop a trace of rain and cause several fires. We know the tropical season is over for Texas, hopefully by next tropical season we get some rain but who knows? La Nina is not good for Texas but it does not mean Texas will not get any rain. I will just keep praying. Too bad we cannot direct the water from all to the floods to the areas in the U.S. that are dry.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/forecaster_handbooks/Cen tralAmerica/Forecasters%20Handbook%20for%20Central %20America%20and%20Adjacent%20Waters%20Appendix%20 C.pdf

Let's try again - modified

Here's the site again. Last time it wasn't working for me.
For some reason the site won't load sometimes.

If you're having trouble and want to see the site its best to do a web search.

Use - "Tracks of North Atlantic Ocean Tropical Cyclones Navy Site" for your search

Then scroll down and look for a PDF site that starts with www.nrlmry.navy.mil
Quoting 7544:
hmm this looks intresting lets see what the next few runs show could our p strom get even that far west then keep going west looks like its going to be all about timing again wait watch and see mode Link


Good old NoGaps lmao
Quoting 7544:
hmm this looks intresting lets see what the next few runs show could our p strom get even that far west then keep going west looks like its going to be all about timing again wait watch and see mode Link


12z run.

Although the Nogaps can get a little too creative at times.
Long range models are just the models using their imagination, but...
Guys,

Ophelia must be a hurricane right now, no doubt about it!
Quoting JLPR2:
Long range models are just the models using their imagination, but...

Wow.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Guys,

Ophelia must be a hurricane right now, no doubt about it!
Quoting HurricaneNewb:
ease upo your gonna blow a gasket!

Shouldn't of gone that far.
Sorry
Yes it does look like a hurricane
any new info on the typhoon i forget the name the one that is approaching the philipenes?
Hey, look: 16-4-2

AL, 16, 2011092918, , BEST, 0, 209N, 621W, 65, 987, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, M,
What happened to NHC's 2:00 p.m. update?
Quoting Neapolitan:
Hey, look: 16-4-2

AL, 16, 2011092918, , BEST, 0, 209N, 621W, 65, 987, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, M,
finally :) now we need 3 more hurricanes and my numbers are complete!
Quoting JLPR2:


12z run.

Although the Nogaps can get a little too creative at times.


Ok, here's the thing that forecasters and people are not getting.. the ridge is supposed to build strong in about a week or so. If and it's a big IF Phillipe moves as slow as he's moving, this scenario is very possible with the high building in as he enters under the ridge. This is not a crazy solution.
October is known for trough patterns.. However, a new pattern that is predicted by most models is set to build in, a pattern that should have been in place earlier this year. While it's late, if Phillipe is in the right spot, things can get interesting on week two. Almost a similar pattern from Ikes pattern.
Must be a slow day.
Quoting reedzone:
October is known for trough patterns.. However, a new pattern that is predicted by most models is set to build in, a pattern that should have been in place earlier this year. While it's late, if Phillipe is in the right spot, things can get interesting on week two. Almost a similar pattern from Ikes pattern.
Thanks you answered my question that I was just about to ask you. The obvious difference is we will be tracking a weakening system as opposed to a strengthening one with Ike.
IMO.... Unfavorable MJO last forever compared to favorable phases... In other words weather is more often boring than interesting. September has been boring
Maybe a silly question, but one I've never understood. If a system has lost it's tropical characteristics (becomes sub or extra-tropical) does it still have the same name? At the same time, if the system could re-acquire tropical characteristics, would it have the same name?

For example:

Philippe (according to the NHC) will become a "post-tropical" depression at the end of the 5 day cone and would lose his name. If he (ex-Philippe) continued west into the Bahamas and reformed tropically, would he become storm Philippe again?

I ask because obviously Ophelia was declassified, reformed, and had the same name, but she never lost tropical characteristics.

You even get a TIA award for your answer.

Quoting KeysieLife:
Maybe a silly question, but one I've never understood. If a system has lost it's tropical characteristics (becomes sub or extra-tropical) does it still have the same name? At the same time, if the system could re-acquire tropical characteristics, would it have the same name?

For example:

Philippe (according to the NHC) will become a "post-tropical" depression at the end of the 5 day cone and would lose his name. If he (ex-Philippe) continued west into the Bahamas and reformed tropically, would he become storm Philippe again?

I ask because obviously Ophelia was declassified, reformed, and had the same name, but she never lost tropical characteristics.

You even get a TIA award for your answer.


Yes it will.
The BAMM runs (18Z) for Phillipe has him on a much more westward, even WSW path. The question is how long can Phillipe survive and could he manage to dig under that strong forecast ridge in time to head west towards the US.
Quoting KeysieLife:
Maybe a silly question, but one I've never understood. If a system has lost it's tropical characteristics (becomes sub or extra-tropical) does it still have the same name? At the same time, if the system could re-acquire tropical characteristics, would it have the same name?

For example:

Philippe (according to the NHC) will become a "post-tropical" depression at the end of the 5 day cone and would lose his name. If he (ex-Philippe) continued west into the Bahamas and reformed tropically, would he become storm Philippe again?

I ask because obviously Ophelia was declassified, reformed, and had the same name, but she never lost tropical characteristics.

You even get a TIA award for your answer.



Calling her "post tropical" was a little off on NHC's part. I believe they stated back in May they had several different names for a former tropical cyclone. The one that fit Ophelia the best was "Remnants of", yet they used post tropical. I am not sure why. Anyway even after a storm opens up it is still the same storm, so the system retains its name should it come back to life.
Remember that when storms are under a ridge, they can strengthen. This is after getting sheared to potentially a remnant low. Once or IF Phillipe manages to move under the forecast ridge, as the NOGAPS shows, it can strengthen due to clockwise spin from the high.
Quoting KeysieLife:
Maybe a silly question, but one I've never understood. If a system has lost it's tropical characteristics (becomes sub or extra-tropical) does it still have the same name? At the same time, if the system could re-acquire tropical characteristics, would it have the same name?

For example:

Philippe (according to the NHC) will become a "post-tropical" depression at the end of the 5 day cone and would lose his name. If he (ex-Philippe) continued west into the Bahamas and reformed tropically, would he become storm Philippe again?

I ask because obviously Ophelia was declassified, reformed, and had the same name, but she never lost tropical characteristics.

You even get a TIA award for your answer.



Yes, it does keep their name.
H.Ophelia's_6pmGMT_ATCF : Starting 28Sept_6pmGMT and ending 29Sept_6pmGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent HurricaneOphelia's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 29Sept_6pmGMT,
the coastline blob at 34.728n76.506w-mrh is the endpoint of the 29Sept_12pmGMT
straightline projection connected to its nearest airport,
and the coastline blob at 35.444n76.015w-7w6 is the same for the 29Sept_6amGMT.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12pmGMT then 6pmGMT :
H.Ophelia's travel-speed was 7mph(11.3k/h) on a heading of 310.5degrees(NW)
H.Ophelia was headed toward passage over Charleston,SouthCarolina ~8days2hours from now

Copy&paste 35.444n76.015w-7w6, 34.728n76.506w-mrh, 18.8n60.2w-19.2n60.5w, 19.2n60.5w-19.7n60.9w, 19.7n60.9w-20.5n61.6w, 20.5n61.6w-20.9n62.1w, axa, 20.5n61.6w-32.708n79.885w, kjzi into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 29Sept_12pmGMT
double-posting deleted
120 - West winds picking up in C IL. Supposed to drop from the mid 80s to high 40s by morning. How about those Birds!
Quoting ClaySFL:
Must be a slow day.


Looks like after last Troll attack, bloggers have diversified into new alternatives and destinations....

Anyone get any mail from magoubly. I suspect it was runferyourlives, because he posted several monkey graphics, and he did so yesterday in his mega-post.
Ummm guys we have 2 tropical systems out there and it's ghost town, just like it was when the tropics were dormant. Guess they're waiting for a hurricane near the US.
Quoting CaribBoy:
IMO.... Unfavorable MJO last forever compared to favorable phases... In other words weather is more often boring than interesting. September has been boring


Not for Bermuda.
Quoting tropicfreak:
Ummm guys we have 2 tropical systems out there and it's ghost town, just like it was when the tropics were dormant. Guess they're waiting for a hurricane near the US.
go to mikes weatherpage.com and scroll down to the animation on the tracks of both storms....man that phillippe IS looking like florida bound if that model is correct...sorry i dont know enough on these computers to print up a link there, if that model is correct next tues is going to get interesting
Should have TS speed winds here (C IL) soon, doesn't look like I'll be pressure washing the deck as I hoped. Guess everyone is on a 2 week vacation until mojo returns for Levi's carribean cruiser.
Quoting LargoFl:
go to mikes weatherpage.com and scroll down to the animation on the tracks of both storms....man that phillippe IS looking like florida bound if that model is correct...sorry i dont know enough on these computers to print up a link there, if that model is correct next tues is going to get interesting
sorry thats spaghettimodels.com
132. 996tt
Quoting LargoFl:
go to mikes weatherpage.com and scroll down to the animation on the tracks of both storms....man that phillippe IS looking like florida bound if that model is correct...sorry i dont know enough on these computers to print up a link there, if that model is correct next tues is going to get interesting


Prob stay well South of Florida and Conus if stays on NHC forecast and heads anywhere toward Florida Straights. Great wave maker for Florida East Coast though. Cool. Haha, tired of having to drive to East Coast just to surf though . . .
Quoting tropicfreak:
Anyone get any mail from magoubly. I suspect it was runferyourlives, because he posted several monkey graphics, and he did so yesterday in his mega-post.
Yes, I got one and I deleted it immediately.
Good afternoon all.

Ophelia, the fourth hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, has been declared, per ATCF. Its not hard to believe either, with a well-defined central dense overcast (CDO) and an obscured eye. There is a nice spiral band on the eastern side of the system, along with very nice outflow on the southern side of the circulation. With the nice appearance of Ophelia, would you believe it was embedded within an unfavorable shear environment? It should lower over the next 2-3 days, before it begins to increase by day 4. It is possible that Ophelia makes it to Category 2 status.

Its okay....you guys can talk...
is it not possible the wave in GOM will form into a dpression?
Good news is the storms south of Austin the rain is reaching the ground, the bad news is missed my house by 1 to 2 miles. Austin hit 100 today for 90th and hopefully last time this year, if I never see 100 again I would be Elated. LOL
Why has the blog been so quite lately?
Quoting Ameister12:
Why has the blog been so quite lately?

Because everybody has left...Even quiet that usual today though...
back. sorry guys i have been busy working hurricane irene claims. ophelia looks impressive considering the wind shear she has encountered.


AL162011 - Hurricane OPHELIA

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realt ime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=AL162011



------

500 PM AST THU SEP 29 2011

...OPHELIA BECOMES THE FOURTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 62.3W
ABOUT 770 MI...1235 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Because everybody has left...Even quiet that usual today though...
So quiet it finally made me leave lurk mode, that and the chance to say "Go Cards!"
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 PM AST THU SEP 29 2011

...OPHELIA BECOMES THE FOURTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 62.3W
ABOUT 770 MI...1235 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 PM AST THU SEP 29 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN
HAS CONTINUED TO ACQUIRE ORGANIZATION. THERE IS A CYCLONICALLY
CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS EXPANDED IN ALL QUADRANTS. THERE HAS BEEN
AN EYE FEATURE INTERMITTENTLY APPEARING ON VISIBLE IMAGES...BUT
THERE IS DEFINITELY A DISTINCT ONE AT THE MID-LEVELS ON EARLIER
MICROWAVE DATA. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 4.0
ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND ON THIS BASIS...OPHELIA HAS BEEN UPGRADED
TO HURRICANE STATUS...THE FOURTH OF THE 2011 SEASON.

OPHELIA HAS KICKED OUT THE SHEAR AND GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON KEEPING
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL
LGEM...ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS FORECAST A STRONGER HURRICANE.
BEYOND 72 HOURS THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...
AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN WEAKENING...AND MOST LIKELY OPHELIA WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY
96 HOURS OR SOONER.

OPHELIA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT
8 KNOTS. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING TO REPORT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED AND CONTINUES IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF FOR THE NEXT
2 TO 3 DAYS. OPHELIA SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH BY FRIDAY
AND THEN RECURVE NEAR THE LATITUDE OF BERMUDA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BARELY REACHES BERMUDA
AT THIS TIME.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 21.4N 62.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 22.8N 62.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 25.0N 63.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 27.5N 63.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 30.5N 63.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 41.0N 59.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 51.5N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/1800Z 53.0N 30.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Very different to IKE patter.
One major difference is that Ike developed during the first half of September Lower Shear and Stronger Troughs.



Quoting GTcooliebai:
Thanks you answered my question that I was just about to ask you. The obvious difference is we will be tracking a weakening system as opposed to a strengthening one with Ike.

Mid...Level...Eye...? With Philippe? O_o


TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 PM AST THU SEP 29 2011

PHILIPPE HAS BEEN A CONUNDRUM TODAY. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS
BEEN ELONGATED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND RECENT MICROWAVE
OVERPASSES HAVE SHOWN A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL EYE WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED CENTER. IT APPEARS THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS REFORMING FARTHER NORTH...BUT IT IS NOT YET
CERTAIN HOW MUCH IT IS TUCKED UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION. BECAUSE
OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN CENTER LOCATION...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RUN THE GAMUT FROM 35 TO 55 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
40 KT...BUT THAT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE ESPECIALLY IF THE CENTER
CONTINUES TO REFORM OR GET PULLED FARTHER NORTH INTO THE
CONVECTION. PHILIPPE HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE
NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY MODELS
SUGGEST THAT PHILIPPE WILL BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND THE HOSTILE
CONDITIONS AND THUS ONLY SHOW GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER 48 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO AND KEEPS PHILIPPE AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

GIVEN THE CENTER RELOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 310
DEGREES AT 11 KT. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK
REASONING. PHILIPPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THEN TURN WESTWARD BY DAY 3 AS IT COMES
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE WESTWARD
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH DAY 5...ESPECIALLY AS PHILIPPE
BECOMES A WEAKER SYSTEM AS IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THERE
ARE REALLY NO OUTLIERS IN THE SUITE OF MODELS. THEREFORE...LITTLE
CHANGE WAS REQUIRED TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COMPARED WITH THE
PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 20.2N 43.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 21.4N 44.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 22.8N 46.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 23.8N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 24.5N 50.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 25.0N 54.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 25.0N 58.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 24.5N 62.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG
148. KUEFC
Shocking reezone on about a storm hitting the US again even when all pro mets are against it
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Mid...Level...Eye...? With Philippe? O_o


TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 PM AST THU SEP 29 2011

PHILIPPE HAS BEEN A CONUNDRUM TODAY. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS
BEEN ELONGATED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND RECENT MICROWAVE
OVERPASSES HAVE SHOWN A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL EYE WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED CENTER. IT APPEARS THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS REFORMING FARTHER NORTH...BUT IT IS NOT YET
CERTAIN HOW MUCH IT IS TUCKED UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION. BECAUSE
OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN CENTER LOCATION...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RUN THE GAMUT FROM 35 TO 55 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
40 KT...BUT THAT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE ESPECIALLY IF THE CENTER
CONTINUES TO REFORM OR GET PULLED FARTHER NORTH INTO THE
CONVECTION. PHILIPPE HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE
NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY MODELS
SUGGEST THAT PHILIPPE WILL BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND THE HOSTILE
CONDITIONS AND THUS ONLY SHOW GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER 48 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO AND KEEPS PHILIPPE AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

GIVEN THE CENTER RELOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 310
DEGREES AT 11 KT. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK
REASONING. PHILIPPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THEN TURN WESTWARD BY DAY 3 AS IT COMES
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE WESTWARD
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH DAY 5...ESPECIALLY AS PHILIPPE
BECOMES A WEAKER SYSTEM AS IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THERE
ARE REALLY NO OUTLIERS IN THE SUITE OF MODELS. THEREFORE...LITTLE
CHANGE WAS REQUIRED TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COMPARED WITH THE
PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 20.2N 43.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 21.4N 44.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 22.8N 46.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 23.8N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 24.5N 50.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 25.0N 54.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 25.0N 58.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 24.5N 62.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Huh? O-o
This does not look good...Reminds me very much so of Hurricane Ike.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This does not look good...Reminds me very much so of Hurricane Ike.


Really?
Wow!
How I should say?
Wow...Talk about an Autumn blast this weekend! Orlando's high on Saturday is forecasted to be in the low 80's. But with dewpoints forecasted to dip into the 30's and 40's coupled with a northerly breeze, it should make for Halloween fever!

Sunday morning is forecasted to dip to 58 in my house. The NWS always seems to underestimate the dry air evection behind these boundaries. I don't see any reason why the full fledge dry air shouldn't make it through Central Florida before the onshore flow commences by late Sunday through next week.

The front should stall and dissipate in the Florida straights. So Miami should get a small taste of this.
Quoting Hurricyclone:

Really?
Wow!


Yeah...

TROPICAL STORM IKE NEAR 43W:



TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE NEAR 43W:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah...

TROPICAL STORM IKE NEAR 43W:



TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE NEAR 43W:


Looks very similar.
Not good.
Quoting Hurricyclone:

Looks very similar.
Not good.

It'll probably still end up re-curving, but no where near as far east as originally thought.
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
157. KUEFC
Quoting Hurricyclone:

Looks very similar.
Not good.

your right we are doomed
It still sport that obscured eye soon enough, I believe.



Btw, where do you get the projected paths of past hurricanes at?
(sorry i will be asking alot of questions, I am still learning stuff about hurricanes even if its non hurricane related)
Quoting Hurricyclone:
Btw, where do you get the projected paths of past hurricanes at?
(sorry i will be asking alot of questions, I am still learning stuff about hurricanes even if its non hurricane related)

Link

Link

Those two are pretty much the same thing.
Quoting weatherbro:
Wow...Talk about an Autumn blast this weekend!

Sunday morning is forecasted to dip to 58 in my house.
It's arrived here. 8 degree drop in last hour, winds NNW now. 40 for low Sat & Sun morning! Should start getting color change in next week! Fall is definitely here!
Quoting Hurricyclone:
Btw, where do you get the projected paths of past hurricanes at?
(sorry i will be asking alot of questions, I am still learning stuff about hurricanes even if its non hurricane related)



Here is one good resource:

http://stormcarib.com/climatology/


and of course here at WU see:

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/hurrarchive .asp
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Link

Link

Those two are pretty much the same thing.

Thanks.
Maybe I could find more similar 'canes.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah...

TROPICAL STORM IKE NEAR 43W:



TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE NEAR 43W:



The fact that the NHC itself just stated "PHILIPPE HAS BEEN A CONUNDRUM TODAY" indicates that they are forecasting with a relatively low degree of certainty. Could prove interesting.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Link

Link

Those two are pretty much the same thing.


someone should pull up the 5 day track projected for TS Andrew on 8/20/1992. phillipe a bit more south, i think, but lets hope the aforementioned shear coming from Ophelia pans out. Otherwise- some disturbing similarities...
166. KUEFC
Yes with regard to strength not track
Quoting captaincaneguru:


someone should pull up the 5 day track projected for TS Andrew on 8/20/1992. phillipe a bit more south, i think, but lets hope the aforementioned shear coming from Ophelia pans out. Otherwise- some disturbing similarities...

Weird, I was thinking about andrew too!
168. KUEFC
And now people comparing it to Andrew? Right am out wow
Spfld, IL - 68.6, St. Louis, MO - 81 Pretty large differential in 100 miles!
Some serious wishcasting in here today. Comparing a storm that isn't even forecast to become a hurricane with Andrew.WOW
As long as nobody says anything funny it's OK though LOL Scaring the crap out of people for no reason is good, right?
Quoting blakels:
Some serious wishcasting in here today. Comparing a storm that isn't even forecast to become a hurricane with Andrew.WOW


Quote the post comparing this with Andrew. I don't see it. I saw a reference to Ike, in location only.
If Phillipe stays weak enough to avoid the troughs passing to his north, it is likely he will get pushed a bit south of west by a strengthening ridge in the central tropical Atlantic and IF he holds together, would be approaching the U.S. in a couple weeks. If he ends up stronger than forecast, he'll probably get picked up by the troughs before ever coming close to the U.S.

The jury's still out on Phillipe.
Quoting captaincaneguru:


someone should pull up the 5 day track projected for TS Andrew on 8/20/1992. phillipe a bit more south, i think, but lets hope the aforementioned shear coming from Ophelia pans out. Otherwise- some disturbing similarities...


Here's one
Quoting blakels:


Here's one


One input doesn't count..

You're acting like the entire blog is wishcasting when it is not.
Quoting Hurricyclone:

Weird, I was thinking about andrew too!


And another
Quoting CybrTeddy:


One input doesn't count..

You're acting like the entire blog is wishcasting when it is not.


It is the entire blog because thet're the only one left here posting.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


One input doesn't count..

You're acting like the entire blog is wishcasting when it is not.


I have backed up my obs about Phillipe maintaining a westward movement, potentially towards the US.
Quoting blakels:


And another


*rolls eyes*

Anyone with a brain can tell this is no Andrew, wrong time, location, date, conditions. Andrew was a sheared TS that hit a hot spot and became a monster while being forced into Florida by a ridge. Philippe just happens to be in the right place right now, missing one trough but it will almost certainly be picked up before any chances it will effect the US mainland, there is no similarity.
2 days ago the philipenes got nailed with a cat 3 now number 2 is coming as a cat 3..................
Quoting CybrTeddy:


*rolls eyes*

Anyone with a brain can tell this is no Andrew, wrong time, location, date, conditions. Andrew was a sheared TS that hit a hot spot and Became a monster while being forced into Florida by a ridge. Philippe just happens to be in the right place right now, missing one trough but it will almost certainly be picked up before any chances it will effect the US mainland.


Not sure about that, at least to me.. If this pattern change happens and Phillipe is under that huge ridge forecast to form over the EC.. This could make for a very interesting forecast.
183. KUEFC
Can i just say westerlies but carry on,
Quoting CybrTeddy:


*rolls eyes*

Anyone with a brain can tell this is no Andrew, wrong time, location, date, conditions. Andrew was a sheared TS that hit a hot spot and became a monster while being forced into Florida by a ridge. Philippe just happens to be in the right place right now, missing one trough but it will almost certainly be picked up before any chances it will effect the US mainland, there is no similarity.


You win. enjoy your blog
185. KUEFC
Quoting reedzone:


Not sure about that, at least to me.. If this pattern change happens and Phillipe is under that huge ridge forecast to form over the EC.. This could make for a very interesting forecast.
Quoting reedzone:


Not sure about that, at least to me.. If this pattern change happens and Phillipe is under that huge ridge forecast to form over the EC.. This could make for a very interesting forecast.

you dont give up do you? So when this doesnt hit the US you will admit your wrong alot?
186. DDR
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Good news is the storms south of Austin the rain is reaching the ground, the bad news is missed my house by 1 to 2 miles. Austin hit 100 today for 90th and hopefully last time this year, if I never see 100 again I would be Elated. LOL

Hey bohonk,i can only imagine your frustruation.
Hey, lets not forget,

Anything is possible when it comes to mother nature.
Quoting CRAPOLASEASON:
florida will get nothing

How do you know?
Quoting Hurricyclone:

How do you know?
FLORIDA HASNT GOT ANYTHING IN 6 YEARS AND HAS A FORCE FIELD AROUND IT
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #26
TYPHOON NALGAE (T1119)
6:00 AM JST September 30 2011
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 21:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Nalgae (955 hPa) located at 17.8N 129.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 13 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm Force Winds
================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center in north quadrant
120 NM from the center in south quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 17.7N 124.0E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
45 HRS: 18.0N 118.9E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
69 HRS: 18.3N 114.7E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #26
TYPHOON NALGAE (T1119)
6:00 AM JST September 30 2011
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 21:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Nalgae (955 hPa) located at 17.8N 129.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 13 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm Force Winds
================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center in north quadrant
120 NM from the center in south quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 17.7N 124.0E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
45 HRS: 18.0N 118.9E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
69 HRS: 18.3N 114.7E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)


Phillipines gonna get it bad AGAIN.
I feel for them
Quoting CRAPOLASEASON:
FLORIDA HASNT GOT ANYTHING IN 6 YEARS AND HAS A FORCE FIELD AROUND IT


Doesn't mean anything
And they don't have any force field either.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I wish I had some money left to BET ON IT!
Unfortunately, I lost all my virtual money because you told me to take it to the bank on Ophelia going west of Bermuda(2 days earlier you had forecast a Florida brush followed by a Long Island hit for O-Phelia).


Crickets
Blog is quiet AGAIN
Ok, it's almost October. Why the heck is this still happening???

000
SXUS74 KHGX 292147
RERCLL

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
443 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2011


...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT COLLEGE STATION...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 100 DEGREES WAS SET AT COLLEGE STATION
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 99 SET IN 1938.
198. KUEFC
Quoting Hurricyclone:


Doesn't mean anything
And they don't have any force field either.

well they really do at least through next week with the high pressure in place
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #4
TYPHOON QUIEL (NALGAE)
5:00 AM PhST September 30 2011
=============================

Tropical Storm "QUIEL" has intensified into typhoon and poses threat to Northern Luzon.

At 4:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Quiel (Nalgae) located at 17.6°N 129.9°E or 770 kms east of Aparri, Cagayan has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 11 knots.

Signal Warnings
==============

Signal Warning #1
----------------

Luzon Region
------------
1. Cagayan
2. Isabela
3. Babuyan Grp. of Islands

Additional Information
=====================

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this tropical cyclone.

Typhoon Quiel is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and will bring scattered to widespread rains over Southern Luzon and Western Visayas.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 15-25 mm per hour within the 400 km diameter of the Typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


One input doesn't count..

You're acting like the entire blog is wishcasting when it is not.


Also: Comparing the track, not the intensity.
Quoting DDR:

Hey bohonk,i can only imagine your frustruation.
Beyond frustration it hasnt rained here in so long, I mean really rained, I get 2 to 5 hours of lightning and thunder like today but the roads wont even get wet or it will miss me, get so close you can see it and smell it but you get a trace. I am so use to being disappointed. I am stucked at 7 inches for the year and 9.5 in the last 12 months plus. Thank God for the heavy rains early last Sept. I have had about 7 major fires within 20 to 25 miles of me, each have burned at least a dozen homes, one almost 1600 homes. Then I see the rains and flooding out east and it is like i cannot even get a shower? My last 5 rains have dropped a trace since June 22. I just hope it cools off a little even though Texas will remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal even behind this front.
Quoting CRAPOLASEASON:
FLORIDA HASNT GOT ANYTHING IN 6 YEARS AND HAS A FORCE FIELD AROUND IT



Groovy, ain't it? Freakin trolls...
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Groovy, ain't it? Freakin trolls...


Knew immediately which troll it was too. Added to ignore. Sigh.
More rain!? Give this to Texas!!!
Tomorrow may be yet another bad fire day...



I'm right at the eastern edge.
On Satellite, Philippe looks better than Hilary.
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Ok, it's almost October. Why the heck is this still happening???

000
SXUS74 KHGX 292147
RERCLL

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
443 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2011


...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT COLLEGE STATION...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 100 DEGREES WAS SET AT COLLEGE STATION
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 99 SET IN 1938.

All over Texas:

000
SXUS74 KFWD 292230
RERDFW

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
0528 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2011

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT DALLAS FORT WORTH...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 101 DEGREES WAS SET AT DALLAS FORT WORTH TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 99 SET IN 1953.

$$
So Phillipe is so far north and it is forecasted to come all the way west? Wow what a crazy season.
Quoting Hurricyclone:


Phillipines gonna get it bad AGAIN.
I feel for them
gee thats a strong one alright
Quoting KUEFC:

you dont give up do you? So when this doesnt hit the US you will admit your wrong alot?
I am just coming on but apparently the NHC sees the changes too .

PHILIPPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THEN TURN WESTWARD BY DAY 3 AS IT COMES
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE WESTWARD
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH DAY 5...ESPECIALLY AS PHILIPPE
BECOMES A WEAKER SYSTEM AS IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THERE
ARE REALLY NO OUTLIERS IN THE SUITE OF MODELS.
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Tomorrow may be yet another bad fire day...



I'm right at the eastern edge.

I'm right in the middle. At least the southern boundary got wet today.
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Tomorrow may be yet another bad fire day...



I'm right at the eastern edge.


Just hope none of this lightning starts anything that tomorrows winds will fuel.

Quoting weatherbro:
Wow...Talk about an Autumn blast this weekend! Orlando's high on Saturday is forecasted to be in the low 80's. But with dewpoints forecasted to dip into the 30's and 40's coupled with a northerly breeze, it should make for Halloween fever!

Sunday morning is forecasted to dip to 58 in my house. The NWS always seems to underestimate the dry air evection behind these boundaries. I don't see any reason why the full fledge dry air shouldn't make it through Central Florida before the onshore flow commences by late Sunday through next week.

The front should stall and dissipate in the Florida straights. So Miami should get a small taste of this.
yeah they say this weekend will really be great here in florida
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Tomorrow may be yet another bad fire day...



I'm right at the eastern edge.
Friday will be a terrible fire day and I am in the middle of it like always. Very windy and bone dry humidity, one cigarette butt from another major disaster around here, or a bar b que, any spark, downed power line etc.

Some Bastrop residents have filed a lawsuit, here is Electric company's response : Bluebonnet's full statement on Bastrop County fires lawsuit


“This lawsuit is a misguided attempt to blame Bluebonnet for a terrible incident that we could not control,” said Mark Rose, Bluebonnet’s chief executive officer. “The Labor Day weekend fires in Bastrop County were the result of high winds causing tall trees to fall into our power lines through one of the most heavily forested areas of Texas in the midst of an historic drought. These trees were on private property, well outside Bluebonnet’s rights-of-way. Given these facts and the conditions at the time these fires started – extreme drought, high winds, hot temperatures, low humidity and abundant fuel – no reasonable person could blame Bluebonnet, or any other utility.”
Quoting Verdog:


Just hope none of this lightning starts anything that tomorrows winds will fuel.


Yeah, I was driving around College Station today and saw so much lightning, but no rain whatsoever. It was definitely concerning to say the least...
216. KUEFC
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I am just coming on but apparently the NHC sees the changes too .

PHILIPPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THEN TURN WESTWARD BY DAY 3 AS IT COMES
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE WESTWARD
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH DAY 5...ESPECIALLY AS PHILIPPE
BECOMES A WEAKER SYSTEM AS IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THERE
ARE REALLY NO OUTLIERS IN THE SUITE OF MODELS.
yes and where will it be come day 5? Right around where the other storm is turning to the north
Quoting KUEFC:
It will be east of the southern Bahamas which are west of south
Florida.
The hurricane season doesn't end in Sept... remember Wilma 882 mb, winds of 175mph, Oct 19th (I think..?) need to Google it... Cape Verde season will slow, but then the Caribbean tropics fire up, so whoever keeps saying its over needs to shut the heck up. People should not get complacent. Its not over till its over.
Ophelia's eye is clearing out and is working on its eyewall.


Hurricane Mitch at peak intensity


Formed October 22, 1998

Dissipated November 5, 1998

Highest winds 1-minute sustained:

180 mph (285 km/h)

Lowest pressure 905 mbar (hPa; 26.72 inHg)

Fatalities At least 11,000 direct

Damage $6.2 billion (1998 USD)

Areas affected Central America (particularly Honduras and Nicaragua), Yucatán Peninsula, South Florida

Part of the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season
Quoting congaline:
The hurricane season doesn't end in Sept... remember Wilma 882 mb, winds of 175mph, Oct 19th (I think..?) need to Google it... Cape Verde season will slow, but then the Caribbean tropics fire up, so whoever keeps saying its over needs to shut the heck up. People should not get complacent. Its not over till its over.


or until the fat lady sings
Good Evening.
Ophelia's a hurricane now? That was fast.
It's only late September, if this was early November then yeah I'd agree but it's not over yet by a longshot.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I am just coming on but apparently the NHC sees the changes too .

PHILIPPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THEN TURN WESTWARD BY DAY 3 AS IT COMES
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE WESTWARD
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH DAY 5...ESPECIALLY AS PHILIPPE
BECOMES A WEAKER SYSTEM AS IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THERE
ARE REALLY NO OUTLIERS IN THE SUITE OF MODELS.


This shows what you're saying
Quoting CybrTeddy:


*rolls eyes*

Anyone with a brain can tell this is no Andrew, wrong time, location, date, conditions. Andrew was a sheared TS that hit a hot spot and became a monster while being forced into Florida by a ridge. Philippe just happens to be in the right place right now, missing one trough but it will almost certainly be picked up before any chances it will effect the US mainland, there is no similarity.


WHile I agree the chances are low, remember what the models looked like a few days ago?

They had Phillippe moving north and out to sea already

The tracks have shifted very far to the west than that forecast
Quoting Ameister12:
Ophelia's eye is clearing out and is working on its eyewall.

Needs some convection all around the edge of the core.

Nesat...
The Philippines are in trouble...
Quoting stormpetrol:



This shows what you're saying

The NGPS looks like a path to florida.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
The Philippines are in trouble...
Storm is....Nalgae?
On November 8, 2008, Hurricane Paloma ballooned into an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 230 kilometers per hour (145 miles per hour) and stronger gusts.



Quoting interstatelover7165:
Storm is....Nalgae?

Yep. Another major in the making.
235. amd
A lot can change in 4 days when it comes to the tropics. On Sunday, Ophelia weakened to a remnant low, and now it looks like this:

Quoting Patrap:


Hurricane Mitch at peak intensity


Formed October 22, 1998

Dissipated November 5, 1998

Highest winds 1-minute sustained:

180 mph (285 km/h)

Lowest pressure 905 mbar (hPa; 26.72 inHg)

Fatalities At least 11,000 direct

Damage $6.2 billion (1998 USD)

Areas affected Central America (particularly Honduras and Nicaragua), Yucatán Peninsula, South Florida

Part of the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season
Hope we don't get any like that this Oct!
237. LBAR
I think Phillipe needs to be watched. Large Canadian air mass/high building in over the weekend and next week should keep him from turning north.
Ophelia continues to intensify, thinking 90 Mph Cat 1. and possible cat 2 by tomorrow morning. OPHELIA LOOKING FINE! lol Eye popping nicely
Quoting Neapolitan:

All over Texas:

000
SXUS74 KFWD 292230
RERDFW

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
0528 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2011

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT DALLAS FORT WORTH...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 101 DEGREES WAS SET AT DALLAS FORT WORTH TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 99 SET IN 1953.

$$
Texas is turning into H O E. I hope rain comes to Y'all real soon.

I found this article on LCRA's web site.

Link

S67
WHOA!
Good Evening

Appears the positive MJO phase is starting to let itself be known:

WV

Environment moistening up some more. Posted WV Image below as it appears this post didn't like having an image being displayed on it.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I wish I had some money left to BET ON IT!
Unfortunately, I lost all my virtual money because you told me to take it to the bank on Ophelia going west of Bermuda(2 days earlier you had forecast a Florida brush followed by a Long Island hit for O-Phelia).


I never said anything about Ophelia hitting Florida or Long Island, and yes, at first I thought Ophelia was going to recurve west of Bermuda and east of the US.. Though the slow movement of the storm caused the high to move further to the east allowing Ophelia to recurve a bit east of Bermuda.. my bad, I'm such a horrible person.
Quoting Verdog:


Just hope none of this lightning starts anything that tomorrows winds will fuel.

True, but Ya gotta take the bad with the good. :)

S67
This is pretty frustrating...

Not a single day without rain.
Cosmic, you need to come into a grip that people are allowed to express their opinions and forecasts for a storm, even if they are way wrong, it's a free country. You need to stop mocking my forecasts. If you dont like me, it's simple, put me on ignore!
Wow, Ophelia is really organizing. When I left two hours ago, there was an obscured eye only available on Funtop and JSL imagery. Now, the eye is evident on every satellite product.



80-85 mph at 11PM.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
WHOA!

Ophelia did what it wanted..
well..it wanted this..
:|
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
WHOA!


I think Ophelia will peak at cat 3 120-125mph , jmo.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


WHile I agree the chances are low, remember what the models looked like a few days ago?

They had Phillippe moving north and out to sea already

The tracks have shifted very far to the west than that forecast
Agree, Phillippe was forecasted to take and Azores track, and right now if Ophelia gets out of the way fast enough, and her effects on Phillippe aren't as sharp, a ridge would built... who knows where he could head to once he is on this side of the atlantic.
The GFS is developing something in the Caribbean!

That fare out, it might as well be 384 Day's. :)

S67

Be Careful Friday Texans : COLLEGE STATION, TEXAS - Critical fire weather conditions are forecast Friday for a large portion of Texas, east of a line from Childress to Midland to Van Horn.

Warm temperatures, dry air and gusty winds are expected. Those dangerous conditions will be made worse by the unrelenting drought that has left an overabundance of dried and dead vegetation in its wake.

“The threat of Texas wildfires is ongoing, and introducing wind into the mix is a cause for concern,” said Tom Spencer, Texas Forest Service Predictive Services department head.

“Fires pose a threat to public safety,” Spencer added. “If a fire starts accidentally in your neighborhood, be on the alert. If they ask you to evacuate, by all means, do it.”

Since wildfire season started on Nov. 15, 2010, firefighters have responded to 23,835 fires that have burned more than 3.8 million acres and destroyed 2,763 homes. Another 34,977 homes have been saved by firefighting efforts.

Source: Texas Forest Service
Ophelia up to 80 mph.


eye
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
800 PM AST THU SEP 29 2011

...OPHELIA INTENSIFYING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 62.1W
ABOUT 770 MI...1235 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


Zombie Ophelia and her little beady green eyes....

EDIT LATER
since this hot link updates with each new satellite image,
the two green hot towers shown earlier are gone...
Wow where is everyone?
here
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Be Careful Friday Texans : COLLEGE STATION, TEXAS - Critical fire weather conditions are forecast Friday for a large portion of Texas, east of a line from Childress to Midland to Van Horn.

Warm temperatures, dry air and gusty winds are expected. Those dangerous conditions will be made worse by the unrelenting drought that has left an overabundance of dried and dead vegetation in its wake.

“The threat of Texas wildfires is ongoing, and introducing wind into the mix is a cause for concern,” said Tom Spencer, Texas Forest Service Predictive Services department head.

“Fires pose a threat to public safety,” Spencer added. “If a fire starts accidentally in your neighborhood, be on the alert. If they ask you to evacuate, by all means, do it.”

Since wildfire season started on Nov. 15, 2010, firefighters have responded to 23,835 fires that have burned more than 3.8 million acres and destroyed 2,763 homes. Another 34,977 homes have been saved by firefighting efforts.

Source: Texas Forest Service


Acreage wise, over the State of Connecticut has burned here.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
800 PM AST THU SEP 29 2011

...OPHELIA INTENSIFYING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 62.1W
ABOUT 770 MI...1235 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


nice
Quoting livinginnavarre:
Wow where is everyone?

Left, gone, out doing something.

lol, its been quiet today.
263. JLPR2
Quoting livinginnavarre:
Wow where is everyone?


Yo! XD

Meanwhile, Philippe is getting low wind shear courtesy of an ULL.
Interesting.
16L/H/O/C2
MARK NEAR
22N/62W
Thank goodness Ophelia is passing well to our East.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Left, gone, out doing something.

lol, its been quiet today.


its been quite since september 13 went without 20 storms...
267. JLPR2
Quoting BDADUDE:
Thank goodness Ophelia is passing well to our East.


You could still experience TS winds or gusts since you are under a TS watch.
i'm finally back home from being stranded after yesterday's major damage from tropical storm ohpellia on the island of Dominica. we had torrential rain causing extensive flooding on the western coast of the island. flooding of that nature has never occurred before and the destruction to peoples homes and livelihood is heartbreaking.

just wanted to let u all know what opheliaa has done even at such great distance from the island.
Quoting JLPR2:


You could still experience TS winds or gusts since you are under a TS watch.
True but we are very well equipped to deal with that. We dont get any time off work for tropical storms.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
16L/H/O/C2
MARK NEAR
22N/62W
Cat 2 lol
cant believe im saying this but on the weather channel radar it showed rain in texas! also ophelia could peak out at low end cat 2
Ophelia will probably pass to Bermuda's east and that means Bermuda would be on the left, weaker side. However it is not impossible for Ophelia to go on the left side of the cone and hit Bermuda much more strongly

Bermuda is well prepared for storms and should not have really bad problems even if that happens. It is very unlikely that Ophelia will ever get close to Fabian's strength.
Quoting JLPR2:


Yo! XD

Meanwhile, Philippe is getting low wind shear courtesy of an ULL.
Interesting.


Looking back at the comments Philippe doesn't remind me of Andrew. He sort of reminds me of Fred from 2009.
I for one am very grateful that this hurricane season was a dud..as far as I'm concerned it's over
268

Sorry to hear about that, hope recovery goes smoothly with no loss of life!
Quoting java162:
i'm finally back home from being stranded after yesterday's major damage from tropical storm ohpellia on the island of Dominica. we had torrential rain causing extensive flooding on the western coast of the island. flooding of that nature has never occurred before and the destruction to peoples homes and livelihood is heartbreaking.

just wanted to let u all know what opheliaa has done even at such great distance from the island.


Glad to hear you are OK. the photos at Dominica news online show some of the damage:

http://dominicanewsonline.com/news/all-news/gener al/photos-heavy-rainfall-causes-flooding-across-do minica/
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Ophelia will probably pass to Bermuda's east and that means Bermuda would be on the left, weaker side. However it is not impossible for Ophelia to go on the left side of the cone and hit Bermuda much more strongly

Bermuda is well prepared for storms and should not have really bad problems even if that happens. It is very unlikely that Ophelia will ever get close to Fabian's strength.
We definately dont want another Fabian. That was an experience that i dont want to repeat.
278. JLPR2
Quoting fldude99:
I for one am very grateful that this hurricane season was a dud..as far as I'm concerned it's over


Tell that to the people that got hit.

Saying the season is a dud because it lacked hurricanes is like saying 1992 and 2007 were duds too.

Maybe we just have different views of when a season is a dud.
On second thought Ophelia's eye is looking surprisingly good. It's quite possible Ophelia is heading towards 100+ mph.
Quoting fldude99:
I for one am very grateful that this hurricane season was a dud..as far as I'm concerned it's over

1.) It wasn't a dud, saying that makes you an idiot.

2.) The hurricane season isn't over...Remember Wilma? Mitch? any of those storms?
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
On second thought Ophelia's eye is looking surprisingly good. It's quite possible Ophelia is heading towards 100+ mph.
That would be better for Bermuda because she would turn East sooner.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

1.) It wasn't a dud, saying that makes you an idiot.

2.) The hurricane season isn't over...Remember Wilma? Mitch? any of those storms?

Your # of comments...it's....
OVER 9000!!!
lol Anyways, Ophelia's "eye" disappeared.
Quoting fldude99:
I for one am very grateful that this hurricane season was a dud..as far as I'm concerned it's over


My country, the Bahamas got hit in some way or form by three systems (Bret, Emily, and Irene) completely obliterating some islands that are known for having some of the best beaches in the world. Not to mention some areas were also hit three times.

Sorry for the rant... back to lurking.
Hello..?
Quoting Thrawst:


My country, the Bahamas got hit in some way or form by three systems (Bret, Emily, and Irene) completely obliterating some islands that are known for having some of the best beaches in the world. Not to mention some areas were also hit three times.

Sorry for the rant... back to lurking.
Dont worry about him. Thats just the way that the casters talk. Hope Bahamas gets back to normal soon.
Quoting BDADUDE:
Dont worry about him. Thats just the way that the casters talk. Hope Bahamas gets back to normal soon.


From my understanding, Bahamas had a rough year, especially with Category 3 Hurricane Irene moving right over them. This year is not a dud. A historical storm (Irene) made landfall as a Hurricane for the first time in years in NJ and caused power outages and historic flooding in much of the Northeast. I've never seen my hometown, which I am heading to in 2 weeks, flooded like I saw in the pictures. It's been an active and rough year for some areas this year.
Quoting reedzone:
Cosmic, you need to come into a grip that people are allowed to express their opinions and forecasts for a storm, even if they are way wrong, it's a free country. You need to stop mocking my forecasts. If you dont like me, it's simple, put me on ignore!


Well said Reedzone.
Quoting reedzone:
Cosmic, you need to come into a grip that people are allowed to express their opinions and forecasts for a storm, even if they are way wrong, it's a free country. You need to stop mocking my forecasts. If you dont like me, it's simple, put me on ignore!
You did predict last PM that Philippe was going to hit the East coast.
Quoting fldude99:
I for one am very grateful that this hurricane season was a dud..as far as I'm concerned it's over


Since you look like you're from Florida, I have one word for you: Wilma. Remember she hit in late October? October's just days away.
Quoting interstatelover7165:
Cat 2 lol
don't laugh too hard
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

1.) It wasn't a dud, saying that makes you an idiot.

2.) The hurricane season isn't over...Remember Wilma? Mitch? any of those storms?
It's almost OVER 10000!!!
Quoting FrankZapper:
You did predict last PM that Philippe was going to hit the East coast.


You need to learn how to read correctly sir..

I said Likely to recurve but the models continue the westward trend. Stop putting words in my mouth, you don't like me, IGNORE ME!
Quoting reedzone:


You need to learn how to read correctly sir..

I said Likely to recurve but the models continue the westward trend. Stop putting words in my mouth, you don't like me, IGNORE ME!


Chill dude, he just misunderstood you. Why don't you go take a breath of fresh air?
Very Colorful picture.

I really wish the blog would get rid of this wishcaster/downcaster stuff.
Quoting ClaySFL:


Chill dude, he just misunderstood you. Why don't you go take a breath of fresh air?


read a few pages back and you'll see why I'm frustrated, wasn't just frank.. I'm perfectly fine btw :)
Haiti covered by convection.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I really wish the blog would get rid of this wishcaster/downcaster stuff.


You should know me well enough on here that I am not a wishcaster. I may be wrong a couple times, but I go by patterns and models.
Quoting BDADUDE:
Thank goodness Ophelia is passing well to our East.

Just want give a shout out to all our friends in Bermuda who helped us get back our electricity in 2004, courtesy of Hurricane Ivan, a big thank you from Grand Cayman , Cayman Islands! In the maintime hope you all are safe and prepared just in case Ophelia decides to get nasty and pay you all a visit!
Quoting BDADUDE:
Dont worry about him. Thats just the way that the casters talk. Hope Bahamas gets back to normal soon.


Thanks, we are recovering, but I inspected the damage to the outer islands... not pretty. Hope all is back to normal by March 2012. =)
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I am just coming on but apparently the NHC sees the changes too .

PHILIPPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THEN TURN WESTWARD BY DAY 3 AS IT COMES
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE WESTWARD
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH DAY 5...ESPECIALLY AS PHILIPPE
BECOMES A WEAKER SYSTEM AS IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THERE
ARE REALLY NO OUTLIERS IN THE SUITE OF MODELS.


This is the rest of it:
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 PM AST THU SEP 29 2011

PHILIPPE HAS BEEN A CONUNDRUM TODAY. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIO HAS BEEN ELONGATED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY... AND RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES HAVE SHOWN A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL EYE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED CENTER.
IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS REFORMING FARTHER NORTH...BUT IT IS NOT YET CERTAIN HOW MUCH IT IS TUCKED UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN CENTER LOCATION...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RUN THE GAMUT FROM 35 TO 55 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT...BUT THAT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE ESPECIALLY IF THE CENTER CONTINUES TO REFORM OR GET PULLED FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CONVECTION. PHILIPPE HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY MODELS SUGGEST THAT PHILIPPE WILL BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND THE HOSTILE CONDITIONS AND THUS ONLY SHOW GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO AND KEEPS PHILIPPE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

BERG
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I really wish the blog would get rid of this wishcaster/downcaster stuff.
It's all under the broad umbrella of forecasting. With free speech thankfully we can offer opinions differing from the NHC and not fear jail time like in Cuba. But when you are wrong expect some criticism and take your crow like a man.
Quoting stormpetrol:

Just want give a shout out to all our friends in Bermuda who helped us get back our electricity in 2004, courtesy of Hurricane Ivan, a big thank you from Grand Cayman , Cayman Islands! In the maintime hope you all are safe and prepared just in case Ophelia decides to get nasty and pay you all a visit!
The BELCO guys did a great job down there. Ophelia dosent look to give us much stress. From what Im looking at I doubt we will even get rain from it.
Congrats to Texas getting some rain!
Looking eastward, Philippe does not have history on its side.



forgive me for not hanging with the discussion but i am exhausted. night all.
Quoting Chicklit:
Wow, is Texas getting some rain?!

Looking eastward, Philippe does not have history on its side.


Ive been mentioning similarities in track from Ike.
Quoting BDADUDE:
The BELCO guys did a great job down there. Ophelia dosent look to give us much stress. From what Im looking at I doubt we will even get rain from it.
Hello Caicosretiredsailor!
Quoting kipperedherring:
Hello Caicosretiredsailor!
25 years until I can retire dude. I did sail sunfishes when I was younger though so I guess you could call me a sailor.Never been to Caicos though.
Quoting BDADUDE:
25 years until I can retire dude. I did sail sunfishes when I was younger though so I guess you could call me a sailor.Never been to Caicos though.
This sounds like something Caicosretiredsailor would say...interesting...
It has been lightning and thundering here since 1:30 pm today, still no rain, Unbelievable, LOL, you have to laugh at this because it is new to me and only the past year.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:


Unfortunately, that's not as much as it looks like. Not a single location in the Houston area has seen a half-inch of rain, and I haven't even gotten a trace here in College Station (unless you count lightning as a trace).
From what I hear, it's flooding in New England due to the tears that have fallen because of last nights baseball games. :)
Ophelia seems to be moving more East now.
The Wundermap shows a few spots with 1.5 inches or so, some half inch totals. Lots of piddling amounts though.
I have done another "weather and warfare" blog if anyone is interested. You can read it here.

"General Winter" kills the Swedish army dead!
Flakes will fly all the way down to North Carolina this weekend.
Quoting Walshy:
Flakes will fly all the way down to North Carolina this weekend.


I've read somewhere that Mount Mitchell has had snow every month of the year. I don't know if that is true though.
Good Night. Hope Texas gets some real rain soon.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Unfortunately, that's not as much as it looks like. Not a single location in the Houston area has seen a half-inch of rain, and I haven't even gotten a trace here in College Station (unless you count lightning as a trace).

I'm in BCS too and have not received any rain either. Hoping the storms around Dallas make it this far!
ON THIS DATE
Sept 29

2005

TD 19

2006

H Isaac

2007

H Karen
TS Melissa

2008

TS Laura

2009

nothing

2010

TS Nicole

2011

H Ophelia
TS Philippe
A lot of what looks like heavy rainfall over Texas isn't hitting the ground. Here in NW San Antonio we had dark skies, wind, lightning, and a ferocious looking black sky... and just a few large drops of rain. Same thing happened Tuesday. Frustrating!
Good night everyone.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


I've read somewhere that Mount Mitchell has had snow every month of the year. I don't know if that is true though.


Some years it has. Think it may have missed one or two months this year though during the hot summer.
20.5n61.6w, 20.9n62.1w have been re-evaluated&altered for H.Ophelia's_30Sept_12amGMT_ATCF
20.3n61.4w, 20.9n61.9w, 21.4n62.1w are now the most recent positions
Starting 29Sept_12amGMT and ending 30Sept_12amGMT

The 4 southern line-segments represent HurricaneOphelia's path,
the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 30Sept_12amGMT,
the coastline blob at 32.708n79.885w-kjzi is the endpoint of the straightline projection
connected to its nearest airport for the 29Sept_6pmGMT*mapping,
and the coastline blob at 34.728n76.506w-mrh is the same for the 29Sept_12pmGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
H.Ophelia's travel-speed was 6.2mph(9.9k/h) on a heading of 339.5degrees(NNW)
H.Ophelia was headed toward passing 1.4miles(2.2kilometres) east of LongIsland, NewYork ~9days19hours from now

Copy&paste 34.728n76.506w-mrh, 32.708n79.885w-kjzi, 19.2n60.5w-19.7n60.9w, 19.7n60.9w-20.3n61.4w, 20.3n61.4w-20.9n61.9w, 20.9n61.9w-21.4n62.1w, bda, 20.9n61.9w-41.071n71.836w, mtp into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 29Sept_6pmGMT

* The alterations of the endpoints of a TropicalCyclone's previous paths also change its previous travel-speeds&headings, and the endpoints of its previous straightline projections...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
I expect so Walshy.

I meant that I had read somewhere that Mount Mitchell has recorded snow in every month of the year, not that it necessarily had this year.
328. JLPR2
I like what I see. Wouldn't mind seeing Philippe reach hurricane strength if it isn't going to affect anyone.

Aspectre your maps are useful. They show where the biggest swells are propagating. The waves on the right side of the hurricane are driven by stronger winds. Also the hurricane is moving the same direction as the wave train. So places on the right side of the extrapolated track will have much higher swells than places on the left side.

New England may have swell issues this weekend, and the media may not bring that up much.
I need to check the models JLPR. I was busy writing up a blog entry earlier.
Quoting JLPR2:
I like what I see. Wouldn't mind seeing Philippe reach hurricane strength if it isn't going to affect anyone.



This season had better produce at least six hurricanes. The last time we had such an anemic season was in 2007. It would be nice if we at least maintained pace with that year.
looking kinda dead----- sure did like the mail i got thanks trolls
ophelia now forecated to reach cat 2 status now 85mph 979mb
000
WTNT41 KNHC 300258
TCDAT1

HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 PM AST THU SEP 29 2011

OPHELIA IS STRENGTHENING WITH AN EYE FEATURE OCCASIONALLY APPARENT
ON BOTH INFRARED AND NIGHT-VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME TILT ON THE LATEST MICROWAVE PASSES WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER A BIT TO THE WEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER...A SOLID EYEWALL
HAS FORMED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 65 KT AND 77 KT FROM
SAB/TAFB...AND GIVEN THE WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE...THE INITIAL
WINDS WILL BE INCREASED TO 75 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A LARGE FETCH OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS
HEADED TOWARD THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODEL INSIST
THAT THESE STRONG WINDS WILL BE DIVERTED AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF
THE HURRICANE AND NOT IMPACT OPHELIA DUE TO A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE. SINCE THE WATERS STAY WARM FOR AT LEAST TWO DAYS AND
BOTH THE SHIPS MODEL AND LARGE-SCALE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS FORECAST
DECREASING SHEAR VALUE...THE NHC FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE.. THE NEW FORECAST IS BELOW THE HWRF/GFDL
CONSENSUS...WHICH SHOW THE CYCLONE AT THE THRESHOLD OF MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS IN A FEW DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...335/8. THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO REPORT IN THE MODELS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUALLY ACCELERATING AND BENDING
TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE NHC FORECAST
DURING THAT TIME IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
AFTER RECURVATURE...HOWEVER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
LEFTWARD DUE TO A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE
NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE WEST AFTER DAY 2 AND IS CLOSE TO A
BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
OPHELIA WILL BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 21.9N 62.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 23.2N 62.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 25.7N 63.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 28.8N 63.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 32.8N 62.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 43.5N 58.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 52.0N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 05/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Ophelia may have a brief chance to attain major hurricane status in between the 36 to 48 hour time frame. Personally, I'm in perfect agreement with the NHC's intensity forecast in saying that the cyclone will peak at 105mph...but as usual, intensity forecasts are extremely tricky.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ophelia may have a brief chance to attain major hurricane status in between the 36 to 48 hour time frame. Personally, I'm in perfect agreement with the NHC's intensity forecast in saying that the cyclone will peak at 105mph...but as usual, intensity forecasts are extremely tricky.
eh its a very close call. im thinking 100mph :P
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ophelia may have a brief chance to attain major hurricane status in between the 36 to 48 hour time frame. Personally, I'm in perfect agreement with the NHC's intensity forecast in saying that the cyclone will peak at 105mph...but as usual, intensity forecasts are extremely tricky.


It is interesting to note that most hurricanes attain their peak intensity just prior to recurvature, which could be the case with Ophelia.
Why follow Philippe track? Why you waste your time? Nobody will be affected.
anyone rooting for Philippe to attain hurricane status? lol

Forecasts:
Hurricane Ophelia
6 Hours: Major Hurricane status; 10%
90 mph

12 Hours: Major Hurricane Status; 25%
100 Mph

18 Hours: Major Hurricane Status; 45%
110 mph

24 Hours: Major Hurricane Status; 50%
110-115 mph

48 Hours:
105 mph

72 Hours: Major hurricane status; 30%
100 mph

96 Hours:
75 mph

120 Hours:
50 mph


TS Philippe
Re-peak: 65 mph
Heading westward starting mid tomorrow, then head out to sea in about 5 to 7 days.
341. BtnTx
It is good to see not all of the "been here awhile wu main blog family" has abandoned this blog. I am willing to bet (no $) no one has been on this site longer than I have. Back in the day when I joined this site I used a telephone modem! To heck with trolls. I don't even have to put them on ignore as everyone else will! Wishing good Wx to all!
I think Ophelia could briefly make Category 3 status before she goes through an EWRC, or begins to feel the affects of the trough.
Philippe, well, you got me there... ;)
Quoting KoritheMan:


This season had better produce at least six hurricanes. The last time we had such an anemic season was in 2007. It would be nice if we at least maintained pace with that year.
Why should it? Is the world going to end?

Quoting BtnTx:
Wishing good Wx to all!
Good weather is in the eye of the beholder. For example, I was pummeled by strong thunderstorms yesterday; storms that actually produced hail and damaging winds in some locations. I was ecstatic throughout the whole ordeal. :P

Quoting mossyhead:
Why should it?
Because I'm bored.

And no, that won't be until next year.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
anyone rooting for Philippe to attain hurricane status? lol

Forecasts:
Hurricane Ophelia
6 Hours: Major Hurricane status; 10%
90 mph

12 Hours: Major Hurricane Status; 25%
100 Mph

18 Hours: Major Hurricane Status; 45%
110 mph

24 Hours: Major Hurricane Status; 50%
110-115 mph

48 Hours:
105 mph

72 Hours: Major hurricane status; 30%
100 mph

96 Hours:
75 mph

120 Hours:
50 mph


TS Philippe
Re-peak: 65 mph
Heading westward starting mid tomorrow, then head out to sea in about 5 to 7 days.


Out to sea?? Where is that north turn from the NHC forecast?


im ready for the carribean hurricane the gfs has showed. since september 5th its been on and off with that hurricane and recently 3 days ago and now its been showing development there :)
LOL,
Final post of the night.
My 2012 Hurricane predictions:
16 Named Storms
8 Hurricanes
4 Major Hurricanes

2012 Names:
Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Micheal
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafeal
Sandy
Tony
Valerie
William
Quoting KoritheMan:

Because I'm bored.

And no, that won't be until next year.
good honest answer
350. BtnTx
Quoting KoritheMan:

Good weather is in the eye of the beholder. For example, I was pummeled by strong thunderstorms yesterday; storms that actually produced hail and damaging winds in some locations. I was ecstatic throughout the whole ordeal. :P
Good Wx is not damaging Wx in my opinion.
Out to sea?? Where is that north turn from the NHC forecast?

The high will break down that would be over top of it at day 5, and would create a weakness that Philippe would be sucked into, which mean, Philippe could ride up the East coast, and possibly affect Canada
THE LA NINA IS BACK!!!
*Evil Laugh*
2012 season, here we come... In 8 months that is, lol
Good night everyone,
Will Check in tomorrow, to see how Ophelia is doing...
Be good Ophelia, and Don't become no major barreling for Bermuda!
Quoting BtnTx:
Good Wx is not damaging Wx in my opinion.


It is when your very existence thrives on extreme weather.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Out to sea?? Where is that north turn from the NHC forecast?

The high will break down that would be over top of it at day 5, and would create a weakness that Philippe would be sucked into, which mean, Philippe could ride up the East coast, and possibly affect Canada


Many things can happen, I wasn't trying to be rude or mean. One scenario, a most likely scenario at this time is that Phillipe gets to the ridge, but doesn't lose the trough, ejects out to sea. Another scenario, which is possible is that Phillipe moves slow enough to miss the trough and gets under that large forecast ridge, moves west and threatens the CONUS. Or all in all, Phillipe gets sheared to death while heading west :P




COOL
Here's right to left, around the world..

Philippe~ Looks like he's gonna miss the front.. west ho for now, expecting no more than a Tropical Storm at the end of five days.

Ophelia~ Looks like she's got a shield up tonight.. One for Bermuda & Newfoundland to watch.

Hilary~ She's too far out to sea..She's dying in the cold. Less than 45kts already.

90W~ kind of a spawn of Nalgae. Has move convection than yesterday.

Nalgae~ Turning into a beautiful storm except it's probably going to smack some land. I'll go 95kts Dilasag Bay in about a day & a half.

Nesat is making landfall in Vietnam as the sun is coming up.

Quoting reedzone:


Many things can happen, I wasn't trying to be rude or mean. One scenario, a most likely scenario at this time is that Phillipe gets to the ridge, but doesn't lose the trough, ejects out to sea. Another scenario, which is possible is that Phillipe moves slow enough to miss the trough and gets under that large forecast ridge, moves west and threatens the CONUS. Or all in all, Phillipe gets sheared to death while heading west :P


Wouldn't a slower motion portend a more poleward movement?

ETA: Curse you, redundancy.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I need to check the models JLPR. I was busy writing up a blog entry earlier.


Good work there, Brian. Thanks for the new entry.
Quoting TampaSpin:




COOL


:(
Quoting reedzone:


From my understanding, Bahamas had a rough year, especially with Category 3 Hurricane Irene moving right over them. This year is not a dud. A historical storm (Irene) made landfall as a Hurricane for the first time in years in NJ and caused power outages and historic flooding in much ofg the Northeast. I've never seen my hometown, which I am heading to in 2 weeks, flooded like I saw in the pictures. It's been an active and rough year for some areas this year.
We in Puerto Rico got a direct hit from cat 1, Irene, lots of floodings and falling trees, powered outrages for almost the entire Island for days ,etc.
362. JLPR2
Ophelia's eye is making a comeback.


Looking better and better, meanwhile Philippe looks sad.
I must say, this isn't a bad-looking storm!

seasons over for the conus threats,wont be long til gom temps approach 80*,lots o contental air mass last 2-3 weeks,to much dry air and sheer,maybe next yr gulf coast gets spared again :)
Ok, now this is impressive!!
Since Tuesday September 20, 2011, until today, Ophelia had 30 Forecast, Advisories, Discussions posted...


Ophelia is no ugly duckling any longer.....

WOW.
372. JLPR2
AL, 16, 2011093006, , BEST, 0, 220N, 625W, 85, 973, HU

97mph Ophelia, probably rounded up to 100mph.
373. KUEFC
From a pro met, your all concentrating on the surface ridge but at 500mb the ridge past 65w is really weak to nothing, add to this the westsrlie flow over the gom and florida if this even made it that far west it would be a non event, even the models starting to show the recurve
21.4n62.1w has been re-evaluated&altered for H.Ophelia's_30Sept_6amGMT_ATCF
21.5n62.2w, 22.0n62.5w are now the most recent positions
Starting 29Sept_6amGMT and ending 30Sept_6amGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent HurricaneOphelia's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 30Sept_6amGMT,
the coastline blob at 41.071n71.836w-MTP is the endpoint of the straightline projection
connected to its nearest airport for the 30Sept_12amGMT*mapping,
and the coastline blob at 32.708n79.885w-KJZI is the same for the 29Sept_6pmGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
H.Ophelia's travel-speed was 6.5mph(10.5k/h) on a heading of 330.8degrees(NNW)
H.Ophelia was headed toward passage over CapeMay,NewJersey ~8days18hours from now

Copy&paste 32.708n79.885w-kjzi, 41.071n71.836w-mtp, 19.7n60.9w-20.3n61.4w, 20.3n61.4w-20.9n61.9w, 20.9n61.9w-21.5n62.2w, 21.5n62.2w-22.0n62.5w, bda, 21.5n62.2w-38.940n74.864w, wwd into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 30Sept_12amGMT

* The alterations of the endpoints of a TropicalCyclone's previous paths also change its previous travel-speeds&headings, and the endpoints of its previous straightline projections...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #55
TROPICAL STORM NESAT (T1117)
15:00 PM JST September 30 2011
=================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Overland Vietnam

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Nesat (990 hPa) located at 20.8N 106.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 21.4N 104.6E - Tropical Depression
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
TYPHOON NALGAE (T1119)
15:00 PM JST September 30 2011
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Nalgae (955 hPa) located at 17.9N 127.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 13 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm Force Winds
================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in north quadrant
150 NM from the center in south quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 17.6N 121.5E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 17.6N 116.9E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 17.6N 112.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)

Additional Information
=====================

Typhoon will move west at the same speed for the next 72 hours

Typhoon will keep present intensity for the next 24 hours

Final initial Dvorak number will be 5.0 after 24 hours
well ophelia is a better storm but its not great.
if it rise to a category 2 it will be interesting but obviously ophelia has a chance to rise to a category 3 because ophelia is intensifying very much.

philipe is a sad storm but if survives at shear it will be a danger..


other interesting thing its the temperature of the waters the temperatures are rising again in the coast of florida temperatures are 30 degrees again or even more.
Quoting KoritheMan:
000
WTNT41 KNHC 300258
TCDAT1

HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 PM AST THU SEP 29 2011

OPHELIA IS STRENGTHENING WITH AN EYE FEATURE OCCASIONALLY APPARENT
ON BOTH INFRARED AND NIGHT-VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME TILT ON THE LATEST MICROWAVE PASSES WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER A BIT TO THE WEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER...A SOLID EYEWALL
HAS FORMED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 65 KT AND 77 KT FROM
SAB/TAFB...AND GIVEN THE WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE...THE INITIAL
WINDS WILL BE INCREASED TO 75 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A LARGE FETCH OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS
HEADED TOWARD THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODEL INSIST
THAT THESE STRONG WINDS WILL BE DIVERTED AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF
THE HURRICANE AND NOT IMPACT OPHELIA DUE TO A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE. SINCE THE WATERS STAY WARM FOR AT LEAST TWO DAYS AND
BOTH THE SHIPS MODEL AND LARGE-SCALE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS FORECAST
DECREASING SHEAR VALUE...THE NHC FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE.. THE NEW FORECAST IS BELOW THE HWRF/GFDL
CONSENSUS...WHICH SHOW THE CYCLONE AT THE THRESHOLD OF MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS IN A FEW DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...335/8. THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO REPORT IN THE MODELS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUALLY ACCELERATING AND BENDING
TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE NHC FORECAST
DURING THAT TIME IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
AFTER RECURVATURE...HOWEVER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
LEFTWARD DUE TO A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE
NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE WEST AFTER DAY 2 AND IS CLOSE TO A
BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
OPHELIA WILL BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 21.9N 62.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 23.2N 62.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 25.7N 63.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 28.8N 63.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 32.8N 62.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 43.5N 58.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 52.0N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 05/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
thought i saw 340 at 8 earlier,now 335 at 8? does that make a diff for bermuda? you all want it going to the right not to the left? no?
hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
Quoting WxLogic:
Good Evening

Appears the positive MJO phase is starting to let itself be known:

WV

Environment moistening up some more. Posted WV Image below as it appears this post didn't like having an image being displayed on it.


Does appear the MJO will be moving into the area in about 2 weeks. The ECMWF is showing a weak signal, but at least showing up for the first time in many months.




thats pretty close to bermuda? no?
perhaps a little too close if it verifies
000
WTNT41 KNHC 300844
TCDAT1

HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2011

OPHELIA HAS BEEN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS
BASED ON AN EYE FEATURE OCCASIONALLY APPARENT ON BOTH INFRARED AND
NIGHT-VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES A
WELL-DEVELOPED AND CLOSED DEEP-LAYER EYE...ALBEIT TILTED SLIGHTLY
TO THE NORTHEAST. A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T5.0/90 KT FROM SAB...T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB...AND UW-CIMSS AVERAGE
ADT OF T4.7/82 KT IS THE BASIS FOR THE 85-KT ADVISORY INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/08 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. OPHELIA IS
CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED ALONG 32N LATITUDE. AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MOVE
EASTWARD TO THE U.S. EAST COAST BY 48 HOURS...AND WILL ACT TO
ACCELERATE AND LIFT OPHELIA NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. BY
DAYS 3-4...OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
BE OVER MUCH COLDER WATER...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE CYCLONE
BECOMING A STRONG POST-TROPICAL WINTER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL TURN EASTWARD NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE ONLY
NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
GUIDANCE TRACKS AFTER 72 HOURS. IN FACT...THE NEW ECMWF RUN BARELY
TAKES OPHELIA AS FAR NORTH AS 45N LATITUDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN
BROUGHT FARTHER SOUTH IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN...BUT
NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ECMWF MODEL TRACK.

THE OUTFLOW OF OPHELIA REMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE...EXCEPT THAT THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS STARTED TO FLATTEN AND
DISSIPATE AS WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ENCROACH ON THE CYCLONE.
HOWEVER...THE LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT
IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE FROM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY 36-48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. ALTHOUGH FURTHER RAPID
STRENGTHENING IS A POSSIBILITY...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST BY
THE SHIPS MODEL TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 5 AND 15 KT DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP THE EYE TILTED AT TIMES AND LIKELY
DISRUPT THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. AS A RESULT...ONLY
MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL OPHELIA REACHES 22C AND
COLDER SSTS SHORTLY AFTER THE 48-HOUR TIME PERIOD...WHICH IS ALSO
COINCIDENT WITH AN EXPECTED SHARP INCREASE IN THE VERTICAL SHEAR.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
MODEL...ICON...THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN LEANS CLOSE TO THE LGEM
MODEL AFTER THAT. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
ARE NOW HOLDING ON TO OPHELIA AS A ROBUST EXTRATROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BEYOND 96 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 22.4N 62.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 24.2N 63.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 27.0N 63.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 30.1N 62.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 34.6N 61.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 44.3N 57.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 04/0600Z 51.5N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Ophelia, a Category 2.
Phillipe just continues to hang around, like a mediocre football team in the 4th quarter just 10 points behind whose demise is taken for granted, then wins when the opponent lets down its guard. Quietly drifting west under the radar to an interesting locale on day 5, where the possibilities are intriguing. I think next week will be interesting.
Euro forms a Subtropical Storm for the US East Coast.. Interesting.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
cant believe im saying this but on the weather channel radar it showed rain in texas! also ophelia could peak out at low end cat 2

Came right overhead here in Dallas, and only a fraction of an inch managed to reach the ground. A perty lightning show, though, including a loss of power. Lucky we're not burning down at this point.
389. KUEFC
Quoting rod2635:
Phillipe just continues to hang around, like a mediocre football team in the 4th quarter just 10 points behind whose demise is taken for granted, then wins when the opponent lets down its guard. Quietly drifting west under the radar to an interesting locale on day 5, where the possibilities are intriguing. I think next week will be interesting.


Again your not looking at the bigger picture, its location in 5 days from now is roughly the same location in which hurricane ophelia started its recurve, above 500mb the ridge is going to be weak to not even there, this is all from the pro mets, and as i have been told even if it carrys on drifting to the west, the westerlie winds alot from the GOM all the way over florida, will litreally render the storm nothing more than a rain shower, but carry on with the wishcasting and scaremongering, this is all i seem to see on this site, people not willing to delve a little deeper into the atmosphere,
Impressive Ophelia. On its way to major hurricane status, RAW ADT already has it as a high end Category 3.
I been out for a while thinking boring atlantic but wow we have a major! Wasnt expecting this.
on the 'yellow brick road' to the north atlantic a popular path this season
Wow, Ophelia. Back with a vengeance.

And hopefully missing Bermuda.

Remnants heading this again? Hope not, we've had glorious weather. May break the alltime October temperature high record on Saturday (it's currently 29.5 or so).

Going to be 27-28 again today (around 80F)
Good Morning...
Quoting Cotillion:
Wow, Ophelia. Back with a vengeance.

And hopefully missing Bermuda.

Remnants heading this again? Hope not, we've had glorious weather. May break the alltime October temperature high record on Saturday (it's currently 29.5 or so).

Going to be 27-28 again today (around 80F)


LOL Cot... I was about to post the exact same statement(not all of it of course). :)


woah
Who would of thunk...

Meh...



I can't even imagine if the environment would have been this moist July/August/September (full month).

Where is the strong front everyone is talking about? 72 here south of Buda and 72 in Dallas, winds are blowing and humidity is low but the temps are mild. Little to no rain received around here last 24 hours. I think the Dallas area got some rain overnight but it died before it got here because our air was stable. At least it should not hit 100 today and I hope fires are not bad in Texas today, have a great day, maybe next time we will get rain? That is all you can say, at least some parts of Texas got some rain, if you did you are lucky.
this is for NALGAE



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 SEP 2011 Time : 103000 UTC
Lat : 17:38:24 N Lon : 126:03:33 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 965.3mb/ 90.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.9 5.3 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -29.1C Cloud Region Temp : -80.0C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE
Quoting WxLogic:


LOL Cot... I was about to post the exact same statement(not all of it of course). :)


Great minds... :)
Good morning all.

Wow...Ophelia a Category 2 hurricane? Well on its way to major hurricane status according to ADT.

Quoting Tazmanian:
this is for NALGAE



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 SEP 2011 Time : 103000 UTC
Lat : 17:38:24 N Lon : 126:03:33 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 965.3mb/ 90.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.9 5.3 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -29.1C Cloud Region Temp : -80.0C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE
Could you get it for O?
Yes, I would qualify this as rapid intensification.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good morning all.

Wow...Ophelia a Category 2 hurricane? Well on its way to major hurricane status according to ADT.


Dang! Who would have ever thought that Ophelia would ever make it to be a major hurricane.

Happy 10,000th post, btw. :P
Quoting interstatelover7165:
Could you get it for O?



here you go


Link
Quoting interstatelover7165:
Could you get it for O?


Link

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 SEP 2011 Time : 101500 UTC
Lat : 22:33:22 N Lon : 62:36:18 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 967.4mb/ 90.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.0 5.9 5.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -19.9C Cloud Region Temp : -66.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 112km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 29.9 degrees
In a way, it's been sort of like 2007 (minus Dean and Felix).

Lots of tropical storms that were weak (in fact, 2007 still had more weaker, shorter lived storms than this season) with a relatively stilted CV season.

Now Dean was the only 'true' CV storm that year and we've had about three or so. All of them, though, have struggled until the mid Atlantic at least (Katia), the others had to get even further west to start to get their act together.

The 2007 SAL was tougher than this season, but some interesting comparisons.
Quoting Ameister12:

Dang! Who would have ever thought that Ophelia would ever make it to be a major hurricane.

Happy 10,000th post, btw. :P

Yeah, especially considering it was barely holding on as a tropical cyclone five days ago.

lol, it is my 10,000th post, isn't it? Hadn't realized that...Guess it goes to show you that I post too much when you joined a year before me, and I have WAYYYY more posts than you, lol.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Link

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 SEP 2011 Time : 101500 UTC
Lat : 22:33:22 N Lon : 62:36:18 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 967.4mb/ 90.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.0 5.9 5.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -19.9C Cloud Region Temp : -66.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 112km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 29.9 degrees




you had too do that? lol he was being lazy and not looking it up on his own so thats why i this gave him the link and he could do it
Final ADT # is a lot lower than Adjusted and Raw...May see it jump up soon.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 967.4mb/ 90.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.0 5.9 5.9

5.0 is 90 knots/104 mph - Category 3.
6.0 is 115 knots/135 mph - Category 4.

At least 105 mph at 11AM is a good bet, but 110-115 mph seems more likely. I want to see that eye clear out. (:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
800 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2011

...OPHELIA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH 105 MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 62.7W
ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES
105mph Hurricane Ophelia
A deep area of convection lies on the western side of the eyewall. If we see that wrap all the way around the eye, then you know we have a strengthening Category 3 hurricane. But for now, 105-110 mph is what Ophelia is (105 mph officially, may see 110 mph at 11AM, maybe even 115 mph).

LOL...The only area in the Atlantic this season that has been able to really intensify a storm....strange huh
morning

small area of disturbed weather near 9N 47W moving wnw. some cyclonic turning is noted in the lower cloud field.
I am very surprised in the intensification of Ophelia. I didn't expect that...but the GFS has been advertising this over the last 5 days.
Interesting if verified:

"India has been drying out for half a century, and air pollution thousands of kilometres away is partly to blame.

The monsoon has been weakening since the 1950s. Indian air pollution has been blamed, but now it seems that emissions further afield are also a factor.

"The summer monsoon provides up to 80 per cent of total annual rainfall in south Asia, and supports 20 per cent of the world's population," says Yi Ming of Princeton University in New Jersey. With his colleagues, Ming used climate models to assess how different factors changed the monsoon.

The monsoon is brought by large-scale wind patterns that transport heat between the northern and southern hemispheres. For half the year the northern hemisphere experiences more solar heating and so is warmer than the southern hemisphere; the situation is reversed during the other six months. As the winds head north over the Indian Ocean during the northern hemisphere's summer they pick up moisture, which falls as rain over south Asia."

Link
420. 7544
looks like the gfs brings our p storm at 25 lat and it stalls it as the high builds in and closes the gap to turn it north could be a interesting one to watch into mon and tues
good for ophelia from a remnant low to almost a major. this will boost up our ACE. hilary had an ACE of 31 or 32 0__0 and nalagae is now a 110mph cat 2 and should make it to a 3 before making landfall in the philipenes
Accumulated Cyclone Energy

Atlantic: 84.4

Eastern Pacific: 84.3

Atlantic's highest producing storm: Katia - 24.8

Eastern Pacific's highest producing storm: Hilary - 31.2

Atlantic's lowest producing storm: Franklin - 0.405

Eastern Pacific's lowest producing storm: Calvin - 2.43

Off to school, be back this afternoon.
Quoting stoormfury:
morning

small area of disturbed weather near 9N 47W moving wnw. some cyclonic turning is noted in the lower cloud field.


yep, deffo some turning there. Almost looks like the type of development that begins from a stalled CF off the E Coast of the US, except here there is a 'tail' all the way to Phillipe to the north.

Interesting to watch to see if anything develops.
ATCF says Ophelia is up to 95 knots/110 mph. Just five knots more before Cat 3. Will she be a major by 11?:

AL, 16, 2011093012, , BEST, 0, 229N, 627W, 95, 968, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 25, 20, 20, 1010, 200, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, D,
At least the ACE is starting to get closer to average.
Looks like Ophelia is projected to miss the Bahamas and curve out to sea and Phillip is forecasted to weaken. Good news for all!
Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF says Ophelia is up to 95 knots/110 mph. Just five knots more before Cat 3. Will she be a major by 11?:

AL, 16, 2011093012, , BEST, 0, 229N, 627W, 95, 968, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 25, 20, 20, 1010, 200, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, D,
what do you think? :) its possible
does anyone see Phillipe turning out to sea after day 5? just wondering because wundergrounds computer models page show him turning north and northeast out to sea while the NHC models show Phillipe going west or even wsw



These BAM models are really messed up. The dark blue is BAMD while the Light Blue is BAMS. Strange steering Forecast for Philippe as usually it would be just the opposite.
For those in Texas waiting for more than 6 to 7 hours of Lightening there is Hope for Next weekend: BEYOND THIS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND...THE
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN CONSENSUS FOR A RAINFALL EVENT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS TEXAS WHILE
INTERACTING WITH GULF OF MEXICO AND POSSIBLY TROPICAL PACIFIC
MOISTURE.
When was the last time the conus was hit by a
"P" storm?
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
For those in Texas waiting for more than 6 to 7 hours of Lightening there is Hope for Next weekend: BEYOND THIS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND...THE
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN CONSENSUS FOR A RAINFALL EVENT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS TEXAS WHILE
INTERACTING WITH GULF OF MEXICO AND POSSIBLY TROPICAL PACIFIC
MOISTURE.


This is music to my ears...hope it actually happens!
Very nice cyclonic turning starting to happen in the last few frames.

HMMMM.. if it is able to gain some latitudes  and miss South America can become interesting.
Quoting stoormfury:
morning

small area of disturbed weather near 9N 47W moving wnw. some cyclonic turning is noted in the lower cloud field.

Quoting kshipre1:
does anyone see Phillipe turning out to sea after day 5? just wondering because wundergrounds computer models page show him turning north and northeast out to sea while the NHC models show Phillipe going west or even wsw



Yes it should! But, this first cold front won't do it. At 5 days its still not for sure yet tho.
Ophelia looks almost like a Major H
Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF says Ophelia is up to 95 knots/110 mph. Just five knots more before Cat 3. Will she be a major by 11?:

AL, 16, 2011093012, , BEST, 0, 229N, 627W, 95, 968, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 25, 20, 20, 1010, 200, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, D,
shes got a pinhole eye aswell i think she is a cat 3



Very nice Cold Front dipping South.....Sweet as i am on Vacation next week with fishing, golfing, BUCS on MNF, and RAYS Baseball!
all these forecasts of the caribbean becoming active in a couple of weeks is making me nervous
440. KUEFC
Quoting TampaSpin:



Yes it should! But, this first cold front won't do it. At 5 days its still not for sure yet tho.


Its not 100% but it pretty much is, lets be honest, the models are now starting to hint at the recurve, and even if it did head west, it would be torn to shreads by the westerlies stretching from the GOM to florida, (50-70kts of shear), as i said this is info from PRO mets,
the thing that surprises me is with all the dry air in place over the GOM over the next few weeks, how could any storm really get too strong? especially with a couple of strong cool fronts
Quoting muddertracker:


This is music to my ears...hope it actually happens!
Me too, lots of lightening and thunder in Texas last 3 days with mostly light and disappointing rainfall totals. Hard to get excited when a front comes thru and drops you into the 90s instead of 100s when it should be in mid 80s. LOL, Happy Friday
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
shes got a pinhole eye aswell i think she is a cat 3
No she doesnt lol
First possible dusting of SNOW in the Smokey's it appears in the Cumberlands.







Quoting kshipre1:
the thing that surprises me is with all the dry air in place over the GOM over the next few weeks, how could any storm really get too strong? especially with a couple of strong cool fronts



Its the tail end of those Cold fronts that will probably spin up a System in the Caribbean. Yes the GOM will cool down some but, it will only be a surface cooling.
Quoting Gearsts:
No she doesnt lol
yes she does its very small on infrared satalite. :)
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
yes she does its very small on infrared satalite. :)
No she doesnt lol do you know what pinhole eyes is?
Texas managed to pick up some rains, in some areas, yesterday. We received a nice soaking around the Houston area. While I received about 3/4", at my house, some areas probably picked up more and some areas probably got less. I was just reading an article that predicts the Texas drought will continue and probably for several more years to come. The past 12 moths have already proven to be the driest 12 months on record, for Texas. This 12 month period even exceeds the worst 12 month period of Texas's drought of the 1950s, if I read the article correctly.

9 more years of Texas drought possible

Sooo, if anyone has any rain to spare, I have a bucket, sitting at the ready. ;-)
Quoting Gearsts:
No she doesnt lol do you know what pinhole eyes is?
isnt that when the eye is less than 25 miles wide?
area south of Philippe near 9N 48W is beginning to look interesting. the last few frames has shown an increase in cyclonic turning, the cloud cover has increased, Cculd this be our new invest? looks like where Flora of 1963 originated.
Quoting TampaSpin:



These BAM models are really messed up. The dark blue is BAMD while the Light Blue is BAMS. Strange steering Forecast for Philippe as usually it would be just the opposite.
,ihink its because of t he forecast sheer and its effect on he models
nalgae up to 135mph...... philipenes watch out
Quoting TampaSpin:



Very nice Cold Front dipping South.....Sweet as i am on Vacation next week with fishing, golfing, BUCS on MNF, and RAYS Baseball!
,here it comes ,whats it been 6months since weve seen he lower 60's????
wasnt ophelia snd phillipe supposed to be dead and gone like a week ago? according to last weeks forcasts and tracks
Quoting BackwoodsTN:
Looks like the intensification of Ophelia has been overdone a bit. And upgrading her to category 3 would be convenient by the NHC, wouldn't it folks? Because that makes her a major. Yet ANOTHER example of padding numbers by the NHC to save themselves.

Nonetheless, two fish storms, two weak, pathetic systems that are going OTS. Who cares.

Next please.
wait until the 2012 season. or in october. thats the best chance for a US hit during the latter part of the season. if we get el nino next season i doubt we will get any hurricanes to impact the US.
H.Ophelia's_12pmGMT_ATCF : Starting 29Sept_12pmGMT and ending 30Sept_12pmGMT

The 4 southern line-segments represent HurricaneOphelia's path,
the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 30Sept_12pmGMT,
the coastline blob at 38.940n74.864w-WWD is the endpoint of the 30Sept_6amGMT straightline projection,
and the coastline blob at 41.071n71.836w-MTP is the endpoint of the straightline projection
connected to its nearest airport for the 30Sept_12amGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
H.Ophelia's travel-speed was 10.5mph(16.9k/h) on a heading of 348.4degrees(NNW)
(348.75degrees is midway between NNW and N)
H.Ophelia was headed toward passing ~5.5miles(8.9kilometres) west of Bermuda ~2days12hours from now

Copy&paste 41.071n71.836w-mtp, 38.940n74.864w-wwd, 20.3n61.4w-20.9n61.9w, 20.9n61.9w-21.5n62.2w, 21.5n62.2w-22.0n62.5w, 22.0n62.5w-22.9n62.7w, bda, 22.0n62.5w-32.281n64.967w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 30Sept_6amGMT

The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed&heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
458. JLPR2
Ophelia is looking good, may become our third mayor cane.

Philippe is hanging on and we even have a little disturbance in the CATL.

Feels like September.
Quoting TampaSpin:



Very nice Cold Front dipping South.....Sweet as i am on Vacation next week with fishing, golfing, BUCS on MNF, and RAYS Baseball!

Thank you for this WV loop. My favorite already.
Woke up to the remenants of Hilary overhead.. looks like SoCal could get some moisture this afternoon from it.. only viagra so far :)
462. KUEFC
Quoting stoormfury:
area south of Philippe near 9N 48W is beginning to look interesting. the last few frames has shown an increase in cyclonic turning, the cloud cover has increased, Cculd this be our new invest? looks like where Flora of 1963 originated.


And it would just end up facing the same conditions in which philippe is facing.
OPHELIA WITH 115 MPH WINDS...BECOMES THE THIRD MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2011 SEASON
11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 30
Location: 23.5°N 62.8°W
Max sustained: 115 mph
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 960 mb


FINALLY!
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
For those in Texas waiting for more than 6 to 7 hours of Lightening there is Hope for Next weekend: BEYOND THIS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND...THE
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN CONSENSUS FOR A RAINFALL EVENT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS TEXAS WHILE
INTERACTING WITH GULF OF MEXICO AND POSSIBLY TROPICAL PACIFIC
MOISTURE.

LOL. Hilary has never done anything the models suggested, the worst forecasted storm I can remember, but she has pumped more moisture into TX this year than anything else has - Thank you, Hilary (with one 'L').
Ophelia made it. Cat 3, third one this year,perhaps she peaks, and now begin to weaken gradually.
That will give Phillippe a window of oportunity to gain some strength, as he move westward.
Quoting redwagon:

LOL. Hilary has never done anything the models suggested, the worst forecasted storm I can remember, but she has pumped more moisture into TX this year than anything else has - Thank you, Hilary (with one 'L').



Nice rain here yesterday in SE Texas!
Quoting BullShoalsAR:

Totally agreed. Neither of these two systems are projected to impact America. Looks like yet another boring, uneventful 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season.


Tell that the Carolinas and Haiti that got hit with storms last year.. Just because it doesn't hit you, doesn't mean it was boring. 2010 and this year have been extremely active seasons and has cost lives.
Quoting JLPR2:
Ophelia is looking good, may become our third mayor cane.

Philippe is hanging on and we even have a little disturbance in the CATL.

Feels like September.
Perhaps something for us to watch at 10N , 47W; a cat 3 hurricane, a TS name Phillippe, so not bad to say "adios" to "all mighty September" .
Bermuda to add from Igor.. 2010 was not a dead season by any means.
New blog. :)
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
nalgae up to 135mph...... philipenes watch out
They are ready for it but not much can be done in some parts cause they are still dealing with 3-10ft of flooding in so area's. Link