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Ophelia still stuck

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:19 PM GMT on September 08, 2005

Long range radar out of Melbourne is showing a much more organized and symmetrical echo pattern today. Ophelia's large 50-mile wide center is surrounded on all sides by strong echoes that are slowly increasing in intensity. Satellite imagery shows a lack of deep convection only on the southeast side of the storm, the result of strong upper-level winds shearing the clouds away. This shear has been oscillating up and down the past 36 hours, and is currently between 5 and 10 knots. As long as the shear stays below 10 knots, slow but steady intensification should result. The latest Hurricane Hunter flight at 8:13 am EDT supports this--the pressure has fallen to 988 mb, and surface winds have increased to 60 mph. Ophelia should become a hurricane by tonight or tomorrow morning.

Although Tropical Storm Warnings have been hoisted for the Florida coast, Ophelia seems stuck in place and tropical storm conditions will likely stay just offshore today. Reports from NOAA buoy 41009 located 23 miles east of Cape Canaveral show winds this morning of 30 - 35 knots--just below tropical storm force. The surface wind field from this morning's NOAA Hurricane Hunter flight showed the the winds of the storm were elongated parallel to the coast, with the strongest winds northwest and southeast of the center.


Figure 1. Surface winds measured by the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft's stepped frequency microwave radiometer and other sources this morning.


Doppler radar rain estimates show the heaviest rain is falling just offshore, but this will change this afternoon as the storm continues to intensify, bringing spiral rainbands over Florida that will fire off big thunderstorms. The intense afternoon heating of the ground by the hot Florida sun will contribute towards making these thunderstorms heavy rain producers.


Figure 2.Estimated rainfall from the Melbourne Doppler radar.

OK, it's time to play the "where will Ophelia go?" game. The answer: nowhere soon. Steering currents are very weak, and we can expect Ophelia to remain pretty much where she is now the next three to five days. Of course, since she is so close to the coast, just a slight drift westward would bring tropical storm conditions to the coast. However, the computer models pretty much agree that any motion the next three days is likely to be slowly north and then east. After heading east for a few days, all the models except the GFS agree that Ophelia will eventually loop back and hit the U.S. as a hurricane, perhaps even a major hurricane, seven or more days from now. The GFS takes Ophelia out to sea, but the latest NHC discussion notes that the GFS performed poorly in a similar situation with Hurricane Jeanne last year, and is probably on the wrong page this time around, too.

As far as intensity goes, water vapor satellite images show a large pool of dry air to the northwest of Ophelia. Winds at mid levels of the atmosphere are expected to blow this dry air towards Ophelia the next few days, and this should hamper her development. However, wind shear levels 3 - 5 days from now are expected to drop condsiderably, and this will aid intensification. All factors considered, Ophelia wil probably reach Category 2 status and perhaps Category 3 five days from now.

Hurricane Nate and Hurricane Maria
Nate finally got caught up in the westerly winds aloft sweeping across the North Atlantic, and is headed out to sea. Bermuda will escape with just tropical storm force winds. Maria is still a hurricane but almost dead; NHC will issue its last advisory on this storm later today.

Elsewhere in the tropical
A area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is starting to show signs of organization. This area will have to be watched the next few days, and is likely to only threaten Mexico if it develops. The ITCA is quiet and there is nothing cooking off of the coast of Africa.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I was hoping that she would have pushed off north or east...just a wobble towards the west is going to deteriorate conditions here by the Cape. It has just begun to rain and I have a feeling this is how the whole day will be.
anyone out there?
morning stormydee,
just lurking & working
Dr M used the "3" Number as in cat3 possibility...Ophelia is looking more like Jeanne more & more...just closer.
morning stormy....looks like a bad day today...rain and wind. I was thinking the same thing if it wobbles a bit to the west.
ya 65, aren't u close to it also? I am in Titusville...
This is looking eerily similar to Jeanne.
yea, Rockledge

Have you seen that latest radar loop? Interesting wrap around on the south side.
she wasn't strong on her south side yesterday...very awesome looking at the radar. Wonder if she'll be a hurricane by 11AM with all that wrapping she is doing...if not, I am sure at some point today.
miserable day here in Merritt Island. It was amazing looking at the radar this morning versus last night, watching this thing evolve right off our coast. If I'm not mistaken, Jeanne did her loop way south of where Ophelia is right now?
I'm thinking probably by 5:00pm...pressure keeps dropping
Ophelia is a Jeanne wannabe...no one said she might meander west, they were sure she'd go north...but 11AM and 8PM yesterday confirmed, she isn't going anywhere, but gradually getting closer to the coast...the roads are getting flooded, but the rain hasn't stayed consistant, yet. There is a sustained wind out there, maybe 10-15mph, but it is constantly blowing...occ. gusts up to 25mph...
Everyone between Ft. Pierce and Jacksonville should pay very close attention to this. I really don't think she will shoot far enough north to threaten the Carolinas. This appears to be another Florida storm that will march right across the state, maybe a little bit north of where Jeanne did.
surfside...yes she did. This is what has me worried, if ophelia makes the same kind of loop, then that would put us in the cross hairs.
The unknown with the loop radius places entire Florida in anxiety. No idea where the south ridge/ currents are, then it could go as south as Broward, per latest models.
So if and when it makes the loop, I wonder how far South it will get pushed before completing the loop and continuing West...

Really nice in Jupiter this morning...light breeze and the humidity isn't too bad.
I predict a category 5! :P
On the WV image http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

Is that a whole lot of dry air she's about to eat, maybe she'll just go away?

probablt just wishful thinking because as I said before I KNow Nothing!

Someone tell me
TotalDestruction, PLEASE do not even JOKE about that.
Good afternoon Florida!

As no one has a clue what Tropical Storm Ophelia is going to do we all MUST STAY VIGILANT & prepare for the worst!

Do Not make an plans based on amature posts on this website.

Remember for those who live in low lying areas or in mobile or manufactured homes.. hotels are occupied by refugees from the Gulf coast so your regular may be not available. This will also cause more traffic as we scramble to find a safe place to stay. Get provisions early & avoid the rush & empty shelves.

Stay safe & enjoy the weather soaps!

And if I remember right the network weather guys were saying 'Jeanne is no threat to Florida, she will head straight out to sea'...and the next day we were packing.
NHC seems to be downplaying any impacts for central / South FL:

"ALL INTERESTS IN NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING CYCLONE."
I hope the latest BAM model run is wrong...we do NOT need Ophelia in the Gulf!
Local guys here in Jacksonville are giving everyone false sense of security. Seem to think it's staying off shore from us and go north even with the loop.
I live in Edgewater on the coast just south of Daytona, and I can tell you we are getting around 40 mph sustaind and gusts of close to 50, so we'll see what happens with it, the good news is I'm a senior at NSB high and school has been canceled for today and probablt tommrow...
I am not joking, I am serious. :P

It will stall for a few days, building up power and then hit Florida as a cat 4 at least (or even a cat 5).
How is the shear looking for Ophelia, and what are the Water Temperature? This storm will become a hurricane I bet. And that loop, if it does loop, the question is how big will that loop be?
Cellma007, that is all it can be...false sense of security. Even the Hurricane center says that it could get closer to shoreline than forecast path. Maybe they are concentrating on the GFDL model that takes it away from Jacksonville and into Georgia in 96 hours. Still a gamble.
Hello all I am back. Been real busy. Here is my picture of the day. Link

Hopefully that link worked let me know if it did not. This system seems awfully close to the coast for comfort. If it strenghtens the way I think it will for the next 6-12 hrs the east coast of Fl. will really take a lashing. They have been handing out sand bags all over central and northern Fl. Accuweathers WHAT team is in orlando ready to deploy to wherever this makes landfall. One thing I think is for sure is that this storm is not going to just go away.
REASTMAN...yeah, we've had a steady breeze out of the North here in Tampa since yesterday...Ophelia's wind field is building...she'll likely be a hurricane this evening.

As a side note, when Katrina was up around TN and KY last week, we were still getting a steady 20+ mph wind from the south, even though Katrina was about 700-800 miles away...the reach of these storms' effects on the weather is impressive.
Whatever TD...perhaps you are a web-n00b, but you don't use :P to indicate you're serious.
Do y'all think she could still head South instead of North? It's starting to look like Jeanne all over again...
Is it me or are the models showing more of southerly track in the coming days, I dont like the BAM models, now showing it tracking back through the florida straights. Bizarre storm, really bizarre!!!!!
Yeah and your nick (BeanTech) sounds really serious as well... Maybe you should investigate a can of beans instead? :D
Yeah I have a weird feeling about this one, Jacksonville has been too lucky too long
I hear ya, cornflake...we do NOT want her in the Gulf!!!
It is, but I think that this one will hit north of Jeanne, if the loop happens. I would say, hmmmmm, maybe between Ormond Beach and Jacksonville as a Strong Cat 1 or Weak Cat 2
Frances/Jeanne Experience...Gotta Agree with Hillsbouroghbay, Get Prepared Now & Be Vigilent. This is Florida, The Weather Will Change in 15 minutes. (Or at Least with the next model runs).
I know, that would be horrible for the gulf coast, but I dont want her in Broward County either, I got a bruising from her big sister Katrina already.
I have a feeling it will make landfall north of where Frances and Jean hit.
Correction: Jeanne
Hi all - I'm a newbie here. We're moving to FL (Merritt Island area) this weekend from NJ. Any advice on how to prepare for this storm? Think we'll need to evacuate?
constant rain here...
saps03 nah just hang on tight... I hope.
As I said many of times, this is 2005 all the normal rules for tropical development are fairly much out the window. Sad but true but luckily the Flordia land mass and lack of deep hot water is keeping intenseification down.

And everyone knows we could have another monster on our hands if it makes it into the gulf or heads far enough out to sea before being its loop.
saps....right now, we are in a wait and see mode....when it heads out and starts to loop back we will have a better idea of where she may make landfall
I heard Tim Deegan this morning (jax weather guy--for those of you who don't know...), and I personally think he's giving everyone a false sense of security in Jax. we all aren't sure where is going to go, but I want to be on the safe side with this one. It's too close for comfort.
11AM in, still the same.
Hello all.... I have a question for ya'll great weather minds.... How come on the weather channel Dr. Lyons has two scenarios - either Florida landfall or NC landfall without this storm looping out first? I trust this blog more so than the weather channel lol. Just wondering here in Morehead City NC
Zane, its even closer than comfort for me...ponding on the roads for me...winds gusting up to 30mph.
Still the same but a .1 degree more south
Notice the blow up in convection in the last couple of frames of the ir loop?

Link
on i.r.satellite and water vapor, she just exploded again in the past hour or so....she is tightening, looks like some shear from the south and east, but I don't think it will slow her down from strengthening.
Good MOrning Stormy! Really not bad here at all. Beaches are supposed to get some wind.. Not a lot of rain though.I am somewhat inland.
she really has exploded
I agree Zane, I'm in Jax too and I'm still not sure what he is basing everything on compared to the rest of the weather world.
she is just so close that one little wobble and were gonna get some good winds here...and dragging her eye south won't help our beaches at all!!! Hopefully, she will see that man wants her to go in a certain direction and she needs to pay attention before someone starts pouting that she isn't following any of the computer models....
the radar out of melborne is starting to really look impressive. the heavy rain around the center is getting heavier and really trying to wrap all the way around the center!! could she be starting another small strengthening trend??

Link
winds have remained the same all morning so far...wheres lefty this morning? Maybe he is on hold for a bit since she isn't moving....
winds and rain here in daytona beach have been picking up as well. yesterday, we had periods of 15mph sustained wind, now seems that it is constant with some 20-25 when the rains come through. clouds are definately rotating in lower than they were yesterday.
last night near sunset, the sun was able to peak through ever so slightly and changed the color of everything to and orangish-yellowish-pinkish color. look very ominous.
Safety Reminder
As no one has a clue what Tropical Storm Ophelia is going to do we all MUST STAY VIGILANT & prepare for the worst!

Do Not make any plans based on amature posts on this website.

Remember for those who live in low lying areas or in mobile or manufactured homes.. hotels are occupied by refugees from the Gulf coast so your regular may be not available. This will also cause more traffic as we scramble to find a safe place to stay. Get provisions early & avoid the rush & empty shelves.

Stay safe & enjoy the weather soaps!
Link
Looks like Jax area getting stronger winds than me, is that true? You guys having some good gusts up there?
scotty, I was that too...I went outside and it was purple out...I realized that the sun was poking thru some clouds, looked very weird, and the bugs were so quiet last night...they know somethings not right...
Hillsborough, you stuck on repeat?
saps03. Keep an eye on local Brevard County warnings for evacuation. As of Thursday and Friday, the outer band are only impacting north / Volusia County north. Also note that for future reference, under hurricane warnings, entire Merritt Island it is always considered a mandatory evacuation area. The entire island is low elevation, roads only 7 to 12 feet above sea level and access points only SR520 and SR528 Beach line are reliable. Most roads south of 520 get flooded or clogged with debris.
bugs and birds, both stromyd. the only birds that stayed during the storms last years were the doves...go figure!

Yeah...looks like leftyy420 is getting some much needed rest. this thing will be around a few days!
I worry about the beach birds cause of what Francis did to them last year...unfortunately, the surf isn't good anywhere out there and I hope they are not suffering yet....but if this thing doesn't move, the birds will try to eat and get swallowed by the waves...poor things....
nhc really shifted their forecast for a storm that no one can get a real grasp on. even significantly shifted the cone of danger. seems all the models except the BAMM expect the trof to kick it out to the east a little for a while.
Not much happening here in Jax. Overcast, and drizzly on the Intracoastal. Winds are a little higher out at the Beaches. Here's a live shot at the beach: http://www.wtlv.com/webcams/beachcam.asp

B
FL weather is always so unstable in the summertime...the heating of the day is only going to fuel Ophelia..we see that strong blow up convection on the screen currently, and I worry, its only gonna go downhill all day for us....unless, of course, she starts scooting east...
thanks for the link rx.
I think that it is so funny that accuweather had a track yesterday of west across the state, and now their track is north. I think they know about as much as everyone else, which is not much
Yes Stormy, it's starting to get a little gusty up here in Jax
over the past 12 hours, .3 south .3 west
over the past 24 hours, .2 south .3 west
so a SW drift, albeit not much and still basically stationary. but i just thought that was interesting for a storm that is supposed to be drifting towards the north or northeast.
Call it a wobble or whatever but Ophelia is definitely SW of where she was last night.
I think TPTB in Jacksonville are doing the right thing. Mayor Peyton is bringing the emergency people back from the Gulf - and people are being instructed to keep an eye on the storm. That's appropriate advice for now. I am a bit south of Jacksonville near the ocean - and there is very little going on here. An occasional rain band with maybe 15-20 wind gusts. Higher than normal tides. Nothing worse than a normal northeaster. Robyn
does anybody know where to find a radar loop that is longer than 45 minutes to 1 hour? i was curious if there was a site that had a 3 or 6 hour loop or possibly more.
Heres a link to the more recent runs

Link
Seems that she is now east of us, not east-northeast
eye feature appears to be shrinking as the northern side begins to fill in...

Link
also, the rain shield seems to be spreading south and west...
I am not used seeing storms move southeast as some of the models have Ophelia moving in a few days. Are there storms that have moved SE in the same area in the past?
I'm still wondering if that dry air is going to effect her.

Lefty where are you?
Where will the people of Florida go if they have to evacuate? I was in FL for Floyd in 99 and the nearest hotel room we could find (using GE travel which are the absolute best at finding rooms anywhere in the world) was in Mobile, AL. Mobile is not really the place to be right now...
I am sure there must be plenty of areas north of Florida that people can evacuate to if necessary... unless Floridians cannot handle the cold September weather north of Virginia or something... LOL
Link Here is a 12 hr loop
looking at WV loop, it seems that she is doing a good job of pushing off the dry air to her east.
Virginia is beautiful and I know people there, so if need be, that would be where I would go.
luckily i have family in columbia, sc if i need to leave. went there when frances was forecast for daytona. ended up being a waste of gas, but with two small children, we were not taking the chance.

stormdee, thanks for the link.
stormy--where in Titusville???I'm from there and my family is all still there. They live near StRd405 and near 50. LaCita Golf Course community.
well, ya'll are welcome here in southwest virginia for a break from the heat and hurricanes.

Two models still show the possibility of going over the gulf. I'd put a big hurricane magnet out over Norfolk if I thought we could keep it out of the Gulf. The lines from the models might as well draw out a big question mark for all that they are likely to be true at this point.
Ya I work about a block from US1, 1 mile north of SR50...conditions aren't too bad right now, a little windy and definately rainy, but nothing we can't handle for the moment.
Hi StormyDee, I'm StormyC and we are close! I live in Cocoa. At the Cape right now though and it is having some pretty wicked gusts. I wish this thing would do something but it sounds like Lefty and the others say we are in for a long haul.
Hey C, ya, its gonna be a very long day/week for us....ust as long as she doesn't scoot any closer...
Looks like the storm is starting to rapidly intensify by both the visible and the infrared satilite images. I have been looking at the radar and it looks like Melbourne (I am currently going to Florida Tech) is going to be getting a lot of rain. It kinda sucks because I am an Astrophysics major and I haven't been able to do any star gazing but I do like all the wind and the waves.
going to lunch...be back in a few...
Stormyc...I live in Rockledge
SCOTTY - does anybody know where to find a radar loop that is longer than 45 minutes to 1 hour? i was curious if there was a site that had a 3 or 6 hour loop or possibly more.

Yes here on Wunderground.com, if you pony up the measley $5.00/year, you get around a 4 hr loop.
hey every one

looks like the gfdl finally got its act togetehr and gfs has lost its handle. still not sure where she will make her loop but a loop looks likely.

she should be at huricane strength ina few hours, maybe by 5pm we will see
good morning leftyy, what's your read!
A Prediction?
Storms of such size as Ophelia are not as affected by atmospheric steering currents. Compare it to the force to push a 100lb human as to the force needed to move a 300lb person. If the storm becomes large and dense, it will become most attracted to the immediate gravitational pull of the continental land mass, traversing the Florida peninsula in order to join the continent. Perhaps, if it crosses Florida slowly, the storm will break up and be unable to reconstitute once in the Gulf of Mexico.
latest gfs is showing the loop again. my preeliminary prediciton of a ga landfall seems the most likely. also follows the latest gfdl run. whoeve said the gfdl was not out to lunch, well it was for 3 days and as i stated in time it would get a handle on this system. the gfdl failed to recognise the trof for 72+hrs. but its recognising it now.

so cat2 with a ga landfall looks likely in about 4-5 days. waiting for next model runs to come out befor i move my predicited track north or south of ga
hey leftty...I see that about the GFS. Looks like she has been drifting a bit to the south this morning
and it could be slower, might be 7 days befor landfall
she will wobble and do cyclonic loops for the next 24 hrs. here general motion is stationary. it will be hard but she is not moving anywhere. she is is the same place she was at when i went to bed. in 24 hrs or so she will start to drift northward and be kicked ene or ne. so for 24 more hours atleast she won't move much
franck "it will become most attracted to the immediate gravitational pull of the continental land mass"

wtf? Continents dont have gravitational pull in amongst themselves, for real, i hope you werent serious.
leftyy- is that with or without the loop??
what a ga landfall. thats with the loop


also whats accuweather saying cause yesterday people were saying they were so accurate and looks like they were lost on this one
gfs is showing a possible landfall lil farter north, maybe near sc/nc border. we will tie track down with more model runs. the hardest thing to tie down is a system that will do a jeane loop. but feel strong towards a loop similar to the gfdl and a ga landfall.
Hiya
BAMM is taking this storm back to us in The Bahamas ... does anyone think they are the "odd-man-out" this time or is there something to it? I know that Ophelia isn't really moving; but these BAMM and BAMD tracks are of interest to us here.
bamm and bamd are shorterm forcasts. so no good past 3 days. they show what all models show a loop. i doubt the bamm loop and the bamd loop cause it is not out of the question but not a likely scenario. the gfdl and the lastest gfs rin to an exten shows what most the opther major models do. a ene or ne kick and a anticylonic loop back at the us. after her loop she will be moving wnw or even nw so where she makes her loop will be key to where she hit. the farther east she goes the farther north she will hit. i think the area of north florida and ga looks pretty good and has for a few days from the models. i will not say central and south florida are out of the woods but i feel a more northern landfall than that is likely
so lefty my island might be ground zero! Zip Code here is 31522 if you want to check out the location,
StSimons thank you my point exactly......
right now its a likley scenarion but the latest gfs shows a obx landfall as well so can't tie it down yet casue it is still 5-7 days out. but right now i feel a ga landfall more than some peoples idea of her looping go acccros florida and into the gulf. her loop will end with a wnw or nw movement. just a matter of where she loops
i am not calling for it to hit me lol. i am making a prediction here in the blog. i live way upin nc and where ever she goes i might chase her so i could care less where she goes. i just interpret the data. thats it
Actually HodgeDog my prediction since Tuesday evening has been that Ophelia will ultimately head out to sea without making landfall anywhere. And that her peak intensity will be a Cat 2. But I still find lefty's predictions interesting.
thanks stsimmon, u know all i am doing is interpreting the data and yesterday i was thinking she might head out to sea as well but the gfs has come back inline and the trof will not be as strong as was first thought so the trof will not be able to pull her out to sea. the question is how far e will she go. thats the million dollar question
hodgedog, it may not be sitting off your coast, but I have been dealing with her all day...hush and let Lefty and the rest of us wonder....
I dont know why i bother to respond.
Read my post, I did not say Lefty anywhere in it. I was going to add that Lefty has been very informative, but I didnt want to give you a big head. SO there i did it.
I'd pay $5 for a no rude people blog. Well if the storm does head this way, maybe we could meet some of the chasers.
this is funny though. remeebr 2-3 days ago when i first mentioned the possibilty of a loop. this will be a interesting storm i can tell u that much
hi every 1 I live along gulfcoast think ophelia will come this way??
I would say with a storm that close to the coast and with that much uncertainity, anyone who is not a moron is worried about it.
I noticed that with the GFDL -the WNW NW ending. This one will be intresting for sure. No six pack for you Lefty!

Afternoon all!

She looked kinda rough while I was sleepin. Seems to be getting her act back togethere now though.
hodge i won't have a big head. this is what i do for my hobby and as i explained to someone last night, i don't do it for peopleto think i am smart or whateevr. i am here just to share with likeminds. and it is frustrating cause we will have this storm off tghe coast of florida for some time and everyone will jump on any wobble she does. so i feel you hodge
Stormy:
Dear stormy you have no idea where i live. Let me tell you, I live in Melbourne Florida, you may know where thats at since you are only a few miles north of me. So I do know what its like with it off the coast and to say its bad out there is a LIE, there is little effect other than rain and some light winds.
So basically leftyy...the farther east she goes before making the loop, the further north a possible landfall. And if she does not make it very far to the east, and starts the loop then central fl may be under the gun.
any 1 there ??
hey storm j, yeah she pulled hersdlftogetehr sort of like katrina did right befor she vamped up to a cat1. wanted that 6 pack lol


i doubt at this point she will cross florida and go into the gulf. can't say it won't happen but i doubt it alot
OK lunchtime is over--incidentally winds have backed to straight N and even NNW at times on St. Simons--no rain showers today, and the waves are much lower than yesterday, and after having been as much as 2.5 feet above normal on Tuesday, the tides have returned to normal. Filtered in-and-out sun.
I see your already fielding movement questions Lefty. Did she move SSN?lol.

weather dude, she will be drifting north and ne so while if she makes a quick loop, somewhat unlinkley, she would probly hit nfl but at this point being 5-7 days out u can't rule it out yet
Im not dissing you lefty, ur cool as far that goes. Ive been watching these boards all hurricane season and your posts are great. I hate the meaningless posts sometimes. I think you get what im talking about, maybe not everyone. owell ill go back to being a lurker in this board for a while........
yeah just one stormj. i am sure as she orginises and wobble we will see more of those today. the latest gfs takes her to the obx stormj. i doubt that scenarion but she shows the loop again now so loop very likely


still feeling a ga a landfall stormj. we will see
yeah no no offense taking hodgedog. ur cool in my book man
not seeing comments posted ?
Hello all from Tville. I noticed convection is really starting to pick up again on the radar with 40,000 ft cloudtops and 77 knot storm cells.
hey hurriphoon. that pressure dropped but no cane. i owe u a 6 pack. lol told u it was a low confidence forcast
did I lie and say it was bad here where I am at? I don't recall, maybe that it could get worse if it wobbles west. Yes rainy, somewhat gusty and very ugly, but I am not lieing. I don't like rude people. Hedge, please chill out!
We are definitely feeling stonger winds in Jacksonville today.

Ophelia continues to grow stronger, yet how can we trust any of the current models after their dramatic changes in the past 24 hours. With a predicted three to five days more of stationary wobbling, who's to say the models won't radically change many times over?

It's certainly strange having a soon-to-be hurricane parked along the coast, gassing up for all of us to see on shore based radar.

Regardless of this storm's future, it's already a storm that I wont forget.

its cool stormydee relax. hes cool. so its nasty there. whats ur winds at
jax ur winds are due as much to the high just to ur north as it is to the storm. ur in that gradient betweem the 2.


also the models have not changed drastically. jjust the gfdl which was out to lunch for 3 days. they all now show diffrent loop scenarios as a loop is the hardest thing to forcast. but the models have not changed much at all. atleast the major ones haven't and those are the most important ones
lefty, you might get the Cat 1 this afternoon, but my gut feeling is that the large mass of dry air will slow development somewhat and ophelia will drift out to sea. Then there is the invisible Cape Canaveral force field effect that will push the storm away.
Im new here everyone, so bare with me but it seems all the models r just as confused at all the weather casters. no telling where ophelia will end up,, u agree?
hurriphoon,not so much woprried about the dry air. its not dusty air and dry air never kept katrina down lol. shes over some very warm areas so the dry air might prevent any rapid stregthening she should reach cat 1 maube strong cat1 weak cat2 in 3-5 days
Lefty, yeah, I forgot I was the high roller last night and bet a six-pack. I guess I'll settle for a Barg's sixpack since I'm at work (lunch break).
models are in general agreement thru 3-5 days. she will be kicked to the ne and make a loop. right now the loop is like a klandfall and is hard to pinpoint exactly how far east that loop will occure. thats the only confusion right now. where theloop will occur. same thing we saw with jeane. the location and speed of the loop will determine landfall. thats why its hard to pinpoint
yeah man i got you lol
I agree lefty, u think a loop back toward Fla. and into gulf is a senario?
Good afternoon Florida!

As no one has a clue what Tropical Storm Ophelia is going to do we all MUST STAY VIGILANT & prepare for the worst!

Do Not make any plans based on amature posts on this website.

Remember for those who live in low lying areas or in mobile or manufactured homes.. hotels are occupied by refugees from the Gulf coast so your regular may be not available. This will also cause more traffic as we scramble to find a safe place to stay. Get provisions early & avoid the rush & empty shelves.


Stay safe & enjoy the weather soaps! :-})
plus i think most people must understand that she will be making her loop at day 4and 5 soit could be off on loop location by as much 350miles. this is a slow moving system and she won'tmake landfall for another 5-9 days depending on loop location and he speed. we can barely forcast 5 days let alone 9 days out. but we can forcast general fluidity on the atmosphere so a loop is likley in the long range
Sustained about 15mph, gusts up to 30mph...hasn't stopped raining in hours.
Huriphoon, be careful, don't jinx our bubble! lol
i feel a ga alndfall similar to the gfdl lastest run is a likely scenrio. going in to the gulf will be unlikely casue a ridge will be blocking the gulf so a northern fl up to the outerbanks is plausible


also yes this is a disscussion board. all must listen to the nhc and their local officials. i never once said to listen to me over the officials.
yeah stormy thats some nasty weather
the last models I saw r everywhere, I saw only one that takes her out to sea the others are in every direction
I am gonna stick with my GA/SC border area Lefty, but I think by land fall we could see more of a NW or NNW movement. The GFS was the first to pick up the loop correct? Kinda funny it went to lunch for a little while. OBX? Outer banks? That GFDL is tending to lead me to believe that we may have to both shift our points N later int he period.
Ah, I see what you mean about the winds in Jax due to the high to our North.

Could someone please link me to a better map showing pressure systems? Gimme the best!
so about this storm the models show it talking a big loop and comon back to hit flordia as a hurricane is this true what i saw
yes outerbanks. the gfdl is calling for a ga landfall and the gfs is sketchy at times but she did forcast the loop and is now back inline.


also u don't need to post that bs on listening to the officials. if anyone makes any plans based on what they read in this blog they are dumb. this is a blog and we are here for our enjoyment. ur comments make it seem like someone or somepeople here has said anything about not listening to the officials. we are not kids we are grown adults and we should all no betetr than to not listen to the nhc or nws when it coes to ur safety or ur families saftey
Right now the models show a loop boldman. That is all we can take from them right now. Where the loop happens will be the next thing the models will lock down, but that could be another 24 to 48 hrs. Then they will lock down the land fall another 24 to 48 after that.
bold man, its to eartly to say exactly where the loop will occure but i feel a ga landfall ismore likely as i tend to belive the gfdl not that it has gooten its act togetehr and shown run to run consticeny. but its 5-9 days away so we will see
I've pretty much given up on the models at this point. I think they are in "uncharted territory" as far as having a stationary cyclone for such a long period of time. Does anyone know of any previous cyclones that lingered for so long? In some ways Ophelia is a freak of nature.
Who was that second part for lefty? Not me?
not so, jeane did the same thing last year hurripoon. and they are in general agrrement she will be kicked ne and do a loop. thats where they differ on loop location which will affect landfall scenrios. if u read the nhc disscussion they say this very clearly. also tthe landfall is 5-9 days away. we can't forcast that and models are no good that far out. what u need to focus on is will she make a loop. right now all modles say yes. in the next 24-48 hrs we will know the extent of that loop betetr. this is a slow moving storm and patience will be key
i feel to much sarcasism coming from u lefty. Sorry, I won't bother letting anyone know whats its like in Titusville. Heck, you have all the links you need to know what I am going through anyway, and yes its not bad here at all, I know it could be worse, but its not. So, I will just get back to my work and won't waste anymore blog space...
no hillsborrougbay. he postyed some crap in bold about don't make plans based on what epople dsay int he blogs and yada yada yada, scrool down u will see it. makes me mad cuae itsnot needed. if u go by what someoine in the blog syays vs the nhc and the nws ur dumb anyway lol
stormy, no iw asn'tbeoing scarcastic to yuou. sorry if it sounded like that. iw as agreeing with you that is sounds nasty there and its probly going to be like that or worse forsome time. so sorry stormy. never meant to sound sarcastic
I found it Lefty, Why is stormy upset?
i duuno, think she got lost in my posts. i wasn't beng sarcastic. STORMYDEE I AM SORRY. I WAS NOT BEING SARCASTIC.
Never mind. Take it easy stormy, lefty does get outspoken sometimes, but he provides lots of info and from what I see lacks sleep sometimes so ya'll give him a break. Keep it up the good work Lefty. This one is going to dirve us all nuts.
yeah stormj, heposted that bs like 3 times and its not needed.we are all here cause our loveorrespect forthe weather.

STORMY DEE I WAS ASKING WHAT IT WAS LIKE THERE CAUSE I WOULD LOVE TO BE THERE WITH YOU. IT SOUNDS NASTY AND I LOVE NASTY WEATHER. SORRYIT CAME OUT WRONG PLEASE FORGIVEME
well, tc everyone time will tell with ophelia, I think the longer she stays stainary the harder her future movements will be to predict, time will tell , chat again tommorow, hagd all
Yea, I could'nt figure out where that came from lefty. Hope she is still around.
no stormj she aint giving me a ahrd time i think she missinteropeted my post to her and thats my fault. should have been more receptive to what i was typing rather than a short but sweet message. sorry stormy
I'm not concerned right now with what happens three days from now. What I wonder about is having a storm 75 miles away that could start moving in this direction. If it started intensifying we could (possibly but not probably)have a cat 1 storm on our doorstep in 8 hours. I don't think any of the models could predict that, heck they may not even be run before it happens. That's why I concentrate on radar analysis with the storm this close.
man i love howpeople think the stal was not forcasted and the longer she doesn't move she will be hard toforcast. wake up yall, the models all forcast a stall and the trof will be the mechanism moving her in 2 days. unbeliveable
Ophelia is a large storm that is kept small because of dry air,if the air around it moistens it will become a giant storm as with frances and jeanne,but it ois likely to be similar to jeanne because of the steering currents,also similar in thst it had a large center and a large circulation but limited windfield and convective reach because of dry air,but it will likely be a very large system once the air around it becomes more moisture laden.
Lefty-My message wasn't really meant for her either. It does help if you preclude statements to people with their handle like so.
It definately could,do NOT count out even a drift to the south,the storm is hard to predict so leave it at that.
well all im going thanks a bunch leftyy your a great forcaster
Understand your concern Hurriphoon, but other than small jogs or reorgs the next real movement will be Eastward and Northward.
someone : could you please link me to a good map showing hi/lo pressure systems, even better if shows forecasted movement.
yeah bur hurripoon she can't move west mouch more than a wobble. there is high pressure in the gulf and its building in not retreating. the high to her north is blocking that way out. thats what u need to see as to why she is not moving west nor porbly won't. the trof will erode the ridge to her north and push her ne and the ridge building behind nate will pushe her into a loop and forced towards the us asthe erroded ridge over the se us retreats. so unless something major happens to that ridge to her west in the gulf she aint going anywhere
hodge got me going...but, sorry lefty I took it the wrong way...I don't want to be one of those people posting meaningless messages, as hodge put it...I thought you were commenting because a thunderstorm is a lot worse than what I am experiencing here...but you just want to be in my element, misconfusion. Sorry...
That sheer and dry air is forcast to let up in the 3 to 5 day range Jed. Per Dr. MAsters. That is when she could really stretch out and bare her teeth.
hey there is another hailstorm and some 80 knot storm cells
is ok stormy. i'd be down there at the beach with a poncho right nwo loving it. glad u saw my pleas for forgiveness.


alsoto you guys, there is a high in the gulf, was even noted in the nhc disscussion. this is why she can't go west.
That's funny Stormy. We all post meaningless stuff sometimes. Particularly when we hacve a storm that is going no where for 3 to 5 days.lol.

Hey Lefty how is the Bay looking? I see that flare up was not enough for depression.
Lefty, I understand, thats why I think it is unlikely, just a possibility, to move this way. But I'm still gonna keep my eye on it.
yeah man i thought it was getting orginuised but guess it win't anytime soon like i said yesterday.
oh i by nomeans said not to keep ur eye onit. was just pointing out that that ridge in the gulf is waht amkes any move to the westmore than a wobble unlikely
Wabit it helps if you name your links like so-

US Surface Analysis

Just type over the LINK part of the Href command.
stormj have u seen the latest gfs. tinto nc/sc and upthru va. very interesting latest run. far out in the forcast like days 7-9 but something to watch
storm junkie
you didn't even bother to show a link!!don't complain about mine
white cause we didn't need a link but u didn't vene post a comment with ur link just the link. he was pointing it out to helpsome people know what ur linking
Easy white, I did not mean to offend you just pointing it out. Sorry. And I am sure the link was aprreciated. Really was not complaining, just did not know if you knew you could do that. That's it. Again sorry.
willjax
asked twice for the link. So guess it was need
storm look at the modelsnow. they are almost all in agreement with their last runs. wow
I did not need the link and I have not seen willjax often so I am not sure if he would have known that link was for him. No big deal. Just trying to be helpful not critical.
stormjjunkie
alls ok
what's a link showing the lates gfs...the latest I have has it going in to the ocean...

GFS model
sorry if i missed hi post. not sayign it wasn't needed was saying u didn't tell us or him what it was but u know what forget i said anything


stormj check out these models

models
this is the latest gfs model run straight from the nws website


latest gfs model run
Yep all except the GFDL which makes a tighter loop. Like I said I think the predictions will shift N over time. Best geuss now is N GA to the outer banks. That all depends on what kind of final movement we see WNW NW or NNW. Due to the coast line how she comes out of the loop will be critical. Also where she comes out of the loop.
Thx for steppin up and sending the link whitewabit!

Well I will be watching with you guys. My gut feeling tells me that this storm isn't gonna hit Jacksonville...but I'll keep a close eye on her. I wouldn't want to be caught by surprise, it's just that a storm with such complex motion predicted, and as close to us as it already is, well it would be a serious stretch of bad luck to have it loop around to hit us.

If she were to come ashore suddenly then the weather would be crazy, and my yard wrecked, but the houses around here would sneeze at measly tropical storm force or cat. 1 winds.

We haven't had a direct hurricane hit since 1964, Hurricane Dora. Don't get me wrong... I will be prepared just in case.
It's all good wabit. Tone is very hard to pick up on here sometimes.lmao.
that thing has it doing a double loop...
well the gfdl is just to fast thats what the problem is. the nhc stated it as well in the 11am discusion. the gfdl will get a better handle with each new run like i stated yesterday. its a good model and will usually come back if its outto lunch
GFDL not good for Jacksonville
Looks like her eye caved in...
the second loop is way out in the forcastlike day 7 or 8 so its not accuarate that far out. she makes the same loop as the nogaps, ukmet and a the faster gfdl through 5 days. so it gives us an idea of what she might do in 7-10 day range but i only trully focus on the 5 day forcast perios
she has been going thru stages of orginisation since last night. she is prety impressive with lots of banding but her inner core is not as defoined as it should be but she is looking healthy compared to yesterday


tyhe gfdl is to fast, thats why the track will likley be more north. this was stated by the nhc.
I still tend to think the southern SC coast is most likely but with this thing I wouldn't be surprised at anything....lol
Oh i've had fun in ophelia today. Took the chitlin out to play & plant 1/2 the garden. We got all muddy. I've been waiting on the 50mph gust Tom Terry promised me in the next hour. Winds are picking up a little, the low level clouds are passing ever quicker & a little more toward the SE. We've had a steady rain all day. Looks like it's drifted alittle closer since last night.
yeah decent map but it only shows 2 of the 5 najor models.
the majormodels are in agreement prettyy much.
From the GFDL I take this. How far does she push back to the W after the loop befroe a NNW motion takes over. That will determine wether it is GA or the outer banks or somewhere in between or a fish storm grazing the outer banks.
OK Folks. A reminder to all

THIS IS NOT A CHAT ROOM.
If you want to chat directly with each other, create your own blog and invite others to join you.

I repeat, this is NOT a chat room. To quote Dr. Masters:
I ask you to keep it positive and use it for discussions. Avoid making posts that more properly belong in a chat room (for example "How are you today?", etc).

Good day to all.
yeah i feel a ga/sc landfall too man.


she didin;t drift any last night. she orginised and toatted all her enrgu she had offchore to her westn and southern sides. she is now symetrical va being assymetrical for days. her cenetr is in the same place it has been for close to 36 hrs now.
won't be a fish storm stormj. once she makes that loop there will be a ridge building nw from behind nate. this is why the further east her loop the more north. the gfdl is way to fast so if u slow the loop down u det close to what the other major models say. ga/sc seems like a good prediction
What's your beef Shera, we been talkin models for a while now?

Just not sure what you are reffering to that's all.
shera is sitting on a stick. she neevr posts anything but some crap like this well that makes her no betetr than any of us and a hypocrite
I ask you to keep it positive and use it for discussions. Avoid making posts that more properly belong in a chat room (for example "How are you today?", etc).
Yeah I feel ya lefty, I am just saying I can't discount it yet. I am also seeing that N ward shift I was expecting and that always makes me wonder about the outer banks graze scenario that we have seen so many times over the years. Wonder what 79's new track will look like.
Lefty, I still can't rule out a central florida landfall after she loops. Everyone is predicting this major jump to the NNW after she loops, but she could go WSW coming out of the loop or due west, which would make a sc landfall pretty tough.
he will be on at 830pm tonight so we will know than


sheera what ur doing now is just as bad as what we are doing. do u not realise that. thats the thing, u want to control every thing but u can't

so stormj how u doing today lol
Alright well I am off to work ya'll catch you later.

Sorry Shera just seems rude to not say good morning or goodbye. or similar things when you get on or off the blog.
ok, im confused, 2PM in, .1 to the east, pressure up but winds up also? Thought is was the other way around...I know the pressure only went up 1, but its 5mph faster....interesting...maybe its a trend to keep moving east (I hope)
nash not so. that ridge being wrooded will slid down into florida, as the system loops it will recede and the steeroing of the ridge behind her will casue her to mever wnw or nw. but yes it count be ruled out but is more unlikley now than it was yesterday and with every run of the models it gets less likley
Lefty, Ive been here all morning, don't recall seeing any "how are yas"

Is she official blog police or is this a self appointed post?
Every model is showing some degree of Nward movement after the loop nash, but that is out 5 to 9 days so you can not discount it yet.
stormy her winds are not as high as they could be for her pressure. she should be a cane with that pressure but shes not organised enough to get those winds to the surface. thats why the pressuer went up very slightly but the winds went up as well
Alright really off to the shower then work. Ya'll play nice-you to Shera.

Don't let O wonder too far while I am gone.lmao.
she thinks shes the blog police. but she was refering to me, she would just enjoy me to go and there only be 5 or 6 posts in here all day
So, how is everyone? Me, I am getting wet and working and wondering what the heck Ophelia wants to do...lol
Squall line after Squall line here in East Orlando, steady rain all day clouds going all different directions and it seems to be getting worse as the day continues. Is Ophelia jogging more to the west towards Cocoa Beach? Or should it start pulling away from us soon? It's so close to our shore that a wobble to the east would bring more heavy rain to us.
Trying to stay dry here!!
JenD
Hey I thought chat rooms were for discussions. They don't call them "discusion rooms" for obvious (to all except Sherawhatever) reasons.

Back to Ophelia, long range 248 nm radar is showing some impressive outer banding east that makes this look like a larger storm. But someone earlier said this is a small storm. The satelite is showing clouds stretching into the gulf. So is this becoming a large storm?
also stormydee, that pressure is an estimate. next recon is due in a couple of hours so we will know more than
Checking in late today. I was reading yesterday's blog for 10 minutes before I realized it was yesterday's blog. Now that I've read today's blog, there's no real difference anyway. This blog is like a bad version of the movie Groundhog Day.
.
.
Feel sorry for the folks in the tropical storm warning zone. Even though it's not predicted to move your way it's got be disconcerting to have the storm so close. Especially after Katrina. Anxious times.
so, what is with the BAMM shifting so far south? is it expecting the high that build back in to be that much stronger? is it being discounted now?
thanks for the explanation lefty...so good chance she'll be a hurricane soon, I take it?
yes she is growing in size now.


she is nort moving, her position is the same it has been for 36 hrs. she is stregthening and is symetrical now so thats why ur weather is so much worse now than earlier. she will sit there and spin for probly another 24 hrs befor she starts to drift n or ne,
"stormy her winds are not as high as they could be for her pressure" Lefty, were you refering to Opehilia orSheraqueenofthebeach?
Does anyone know what the record is for most hurricanes (and typhoons) churning on the planet at the same time?
Lefty, again "yes she is growing in size now" you are going to have to specific if you are talking about Ophelia or not.
the bamm is a shallow model and only good for 2-3 days out at best. ur looking at her 4-5 day range wehre she is lost at. u will see in more models she comes in line. thats why the bamm is not a major models. i have only seen the bamm be right on a couple of times but leaves the dorr open for possibilites but some what unlikely


yeah stormydee, maybe by 5pm but most likely sometime tonight she will be a cane. out girl is growing up lol
lol hurriphoon :-)
sorry hurripoon. i got u man
No one can tell for sure how large she will grow while she sits then? You can definatly tell something is up, either Ophelia is moving closer or she's growing larger.

One minor note we have had little to no wind just rain.
We are far from the coast and I wasn't expecting any wind.
I bet the officals at KSC are glad there isn't a shuttle on the pad right now. The rip currents must be horrid I pray for all the people who think they should swim in the Ocean.
JenD
opehila is growing in size. u can see it in the ir imagery. lol hope thats better man
Volusia county here...Just a miserable day...the rain bands keep coming and going...I sort of just wish she would make up her mind one way or another and stop just hanging over us.....DREARY DREARY DREARY!!!
more and more deep convection on west side (Please stay off the coast!), figured that would happen during the day, u'd think the sun is going down as dark as it is outside...my kid is getting out of school, she can't walk in this rain, then I am heading home...we'll try to catch up at home, if I get a chance, otherwise, will chat/blog/have fun tomorrow. Have a great night!
yeah sherrb, it will be like that for 24+ more hours.it willprobly get allitle worse ebfor it gets betetr. sucks though i wish i was there lol
lefty, where do you see the trof right now? has it made it to the east coast yet? when should it be moving off of the east coast?
alright stormydee.u know i will be here
sherryb, daytona beach here, what part of volusia co are you in?
came in for lunch and break from cleanup and guess what same ones saying the same things over and over. but god did bless me
dr. neil frank who he and bob sheets i did respect said in a
interview on local all news station they had no idea where this storm is going period. he also said the watch for katrina put up at 100pm cst sat 27 was to late. being the problem in evacuating no should have been 12hrs. earlier he stressed during george he issued a watch 72 hrs before landfall because of intensity uncertainty and no problem. he also stated they are still very unskilled at predicting intensity and or still
only 20% accurate on a forecast out past 60 hrs. he said thier is much room for improvement. thank god he spoke maybe
now somebody will understand what iam trying to say. lefty
there was ahigh in gulf on sept 15,1965 and a storm was stalled off the geeorgia coast guess where it ended up and
also katrina high in gulf. im sure you will still argue and not admit you could be wrong . also i talked to a sector director at ngss and told him about the comments about accuwea/and impact. he laughed and said if its good enough for the us navy its good enough for the number 25 ranked company in the top fortune 500. but i still love you just trying to get you to see the whole picture from someone who has followed these thing while you were not even thought about. but i was 25 once and my daddy or elders could not get to me either. thats just a thought thought ray would be interested in hearing dr frank.
Thanks Lefty...UGH...like I said...I wish she do something instead of just sit there....I do have to say though, the clouds are pretty amazing to watch they are really moving
Deltona here....
Looking at steve's blog his last map (the forcast), it's got the past coordinates. Shows it's real slow drifted back toward melb/titusville area. then the models have it forcasted to do a 180 out to sea before the loop. this is like waiting for an uproaching storm to turn right. the models say it will right now, but alot of times they seem to forcast it early.
Well Dr. Masters you can take the week off.

As Leftyyy has stated there would be only 5 or 6 posts on this Blog if he used HIS blog for his "Discussions". We no longer require your services!

NOT!

If anyone would like to ask the Dr. a question I am sure he will read through all this wonderfull chit chat to find your question.

Right!

Sorry to interrupt your learned discussions!
scott, the trof is from ny down to texas. it has a way to go
also, is there still no chance that the trof will miss the storm altogather? i mean, if this thing does not start drifting north, i do not see how it can be caught by the trof

just my thoughts.
uh hill thats not what i said. i said that sheera would like it if there was only 5 or 6 posts in the blog. read what i said again.
Please pardon my ignorance, but could someone give a quick, short mini-lesson on the various models? Which models seem to be the best at predicting hurricanes? I hate to give them all equal credence if one is better than the other.

Also, I live in N.C. are there any scenarios where Ophelia could reach us? We keep waiting to get hit this year, but so far we've been real lucky. I'm just wondering if our luck will keep holding out.

Thanks.
Safety Memo:

Posted By: HillsboroughBay at 5:10 PM GMT on September 08, 2005.
Good afternoon Florida!

As no one has a clue what Tropical Storm Ophelia is going to do we all MUST STAY VIGILANT & prepare for the worst!

Do Not make any plans based on amature posts on this website.

Remember for those who live in low lying areas or in mobile or manufactured homes.. hotels are occupied by refugees from the Gulf coast so your regular may be not available. This will also cause more traffic as we scramble to find a safe place to stay. Get provisions early & avoid the rush & empty shelves.

Stay safe & enjoy the weather soaps! :-})
the nhc as stated slight wobble and even small cyclonig llops are possible as it sits off the coast. she will not move anywhere other than where she is. also even if the trof doesn't grab here, which won't happen, the trof will errode the ridge blcokign ehr to the north so she would move north or ne in response to the erroded ridge and likely make a landfall in northern ga. the trof just pushes her ne for a time and the building ridge behind nate will push her back wnw or nw. thats the liklely scenario and what is being shown by all the models


also saint this is not 1965. the computer in my watch is more advanced than anything they used to forcast storms in 1965. but i understand what ur saying
ok to the guy in nc here u go


there are 20 orso models. 5 of those models are called major models as they are the ones to watch though all models are used toform a concensus track

the major models are ukmet,nogaps,gfdl,gfdn,gfs and the canadian or cmc

now we sue a handfull of models for innsity but mainly look at the shipd model and the gfdl for intensity purposes


also it is still poissiible alandfall could occur in nc. the latest longrange gfs has this happening but long range models are highley unaccurate but gives u an idea of what might happen
lefty, i am not trying to get under your skin or anything, just throwing out some food for thought. thanks for the analysis.
i think what saint is saying is that it is not the models that determine where the storm is going, it is mother nature. the models do well to make an educated guess as to her decisions, and i agree that the generally do a good job; but we are still dealing with mother nature, a force we do not and can never truely/fully understand/predict.
excellent memo, i'm a 25mn wobble away from havin my kiddy pool rapped around a tree
25nm oops
Posted By: leftyy420 at 2:09 PM EDT on September 08, 2005.
she thinks shes the blog police. but she was refering to me, she would just enjoy me to go and there only be 5 or 6 posts in here all day!
They just don't get it Lefty. While anything is possible, it would take some major unexpected changes in the atmosphere for her to go W. THe NHC has been forcasting a N ward component for several days now. Ya'll get real this is a place for people to learn and discuss not "bit" each others heads off. People ask why it won't go west a lot and lefty or some one else explains. This should be the case for the next several days. If something changes the people on here are likely to see it before the NHC or TWC or NWS releases any info on it. Not to say they don't already know, but they release it latter than they see it usually.

Is Joe B still calling for a Florida crossing any way?
thats why i said i feel her scott, but since the late 70's we ahve learned to predict to some extent what will steer and affect a storm like a hurricane. at the same time our computing power has gone thru the roof. so while we must watch mother nature we can form a general idea of what will and probly not happen. so with the ridge to her west and to her north we can predict she will not go due west for some time if she was to. thats my point and the models ahve been great for 15 years now and the focus has now been to extend there range. 5 years ago we had 3 days, now we have a 5 day range but its stiuaccurate. in 10 years we hope to forcast 7 days with some accuracy. more welearn betetr we can do
Hills, do you have anything scientific to offer here? or are you just here to bash Lefty? Just curious cause you don't seem to knowledgable about these storms. While lefty doe not look to be knowledgeable due to his grammer and poor typing skills, but he is. Grammer and typing skills do not always correlate to knowledge.

Lefty, I sure will be glad when this thing moves a little further away from Florida so people will calm down a little.
yes hill, sorry i wasn't more specific but no where does it say i want people to goto my disccsuin. i said she would be happy if i left and there would only be 4 or 5 posts to the blog. if u don't understand what i am saying i am sorry. she doesn't like all the posts. she wants to pop in evbery so often and be able to check up with out reading 500 posts. that was my point. u have a problem with me but i ma nmore flattered than offended. that means u feel threatened by me.
stormj i told u it would be a wild couple of days lol
i figured i was wasting my time i guess dr frank is a idiot to.
you can lead ahorse to water you cant make him drink. im a dum old ms. boy with mba and acompt. science degree. so those models digest info given to them by humans. and you nor i or anybody else were born in bethlehem 2000 years ago. try one thing listen and you might learn the day you stop laerning is the day you die. p.s i will tell the ngss and the navy and dr frank to go to your school. lol i give up i thought my 10 year old was hard headed. god bless much work to do
It looks like a tiny eye has appeared on satelite and the hailstorms are picking up again, but of course going nowhere.
saint i love the navy. i use ther site alot. all i said was we are in a diff place now than we were in 1965 when it comes to forcasting. nowhwere there did i say any one was an idiot. i love how u guys put words in posts that are not there.
Lefty, it is kinda like it was with StormTop and I did this too with StormTop. Just hated for him to be right. Some people will do anything to try and make you wrong. Most of the time you are not though.
new vortex out. pressure 988mb

URNT12 KNHC 081812
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 08/17:53:50Z
B. 28 deg 35 min N
079 deg 30 min W
C. 850 mb 1338 m
D. 55 kt
E. 294 deg 021 nm
F. 020 deg 064 kt
G. 293 deg 017 nm
H. 988 mb
I. 17 C/ 1524 m
J. 21 C/ 1527 m
K. 21 C/ NA
L. RAGGED
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 0616A OPHELIA OB 04
MAX FL WIND 64 KT W QUAD 17:48:50 Z
MAX FL TEMP 22C 115/ 6NM FROM FL CNTR


where are you seeing a small eye??

i am still just a little leary of all of the models right now because if you go back to yesterday, this thing should have already been on its way north, but it hasn't yet. now, i know you said that this thing will sit here for another 36-48 hours (speaking about yesterday), and it still is, i just have a little trouble believing that it is going to move as far east as the models are saying.
299. Peff
Whitewabit put this link up on yesterday's thread. I found it very useful in decoding these vortex codes. Thought it might be ok to share it agin.

Vortex Data Decoder
For The Record, Weatherguy03 described the loop back on Sunday.
well scott she willmove into a weakness left by nate. thats why she is going that way. these storms move to areas of less resitance so that weakness will look good the her but as she slowly moves to that weakness it will fill and she will move south and make a loop back to the us. how far east shewill go will determine where she makes landfall cause once she makes that turn she will be moving wnw or more nw in respnse to the erroded ridge retreating north. thats the forcast in a nut shell. hope it clears it up. iwll post a link for some high ress images so u can see the eye feature trying to form
Getting more wind here now....rain has stopped though (for now)....
I was looking at the NOAA storm floater 1, you have to look very closely, but at the center of circulation there is a very small eye-like feature. I'm gonna look for a better image.
u ask anyone including weatherguy i borught it up and we disscussed it for a few hours. i refered to is as a jeane like loop and he said maybe.


yeah i want to find him a betetr image casue its ahrd to see. just so you know tropical cyclones form a visible eye feature when they reach 60mph so it does not ahve to be a cane to have an eye in visible sat imgs
Posted By: leftyy420 at 2:44 PM EDT on September 08, 2005.
yes hill, sorry i wasn't more specific but no where does it say i want people to goto my disccsuin. i said she would be happy if i left and there would only be 4 or 5 posts to the blog. if u don't understand what i am saying i am sorry. she doesn't like all the posts. she wants to pop in evbery so often and be able to check up with out reading 500 posts. that was my point. u have a problem with me but i ma nmore flattered than offended. that means u feel threatened by me.

1. No one is here is a threat to anyone except to anyone who would like to ask a question of the TRAINED WEATHER EXPERT who sponsors this blog.
2. You said excatly what I did. You inferred that if Leftyy was not here to TEACH all the multitudes about weather the blog would be empty. How important you must feel!
3. We know you don't want anyone to go to your blow sorry blog.
4. Many other bloggers have they're own blogs where they offer their specific insights on the weather or cooking or spelling etc. Why not Leftyy? or Lefty or whatever.
5. We have a serious storm off the coast if Florida NOT Virginia. Many wouldike to be able to ask a trained professional a few things so they could try & understand why things happen the way they do.

Calm down Go back & read you own evaluations of the models & how you constantly contradict yourself & even you will understand why you should have you own well earned blog.

Let the DOCTOR have his back!

Sorry for intruding into the Leftyy show


to junkie or lefty forget it. just cant believe a man isnt mature enough to admit he is wrong but i will make sure i run through the rubble that once was a nieghborhood and tell them no worry for gulf. models and nhc say so. i just trying to get you to understand you are wrong attacking experts and i am to on the nhc case but dr frank backs it up so maybe some other folks who have lives besides sitting behind acomputer thinking they are the nazerene thier opinions and ideas dont count thank god accw has a blog. when stormtop returns i see he an the other locals or ok i will gladly go accu pro blog. this one is constantly by 4 indivuals who are
filled with to much idle time its summer go mow or do some yard work. laziness makes cowards of us all good day and godbless. ps if you are not employed right now the fema and redcross could use you down here more than this computer. might score some points with the big man. forgive my anger its not this storm i feel blessed despite my losses wife with cancer is my greatest thought and concern. i just can not handle closeminded people with arrogant overtones. i will not judge but pray good day and god bless.
peff
Glad you found the decoder helpful and please share with everyone..
lefty, i really do respect your opinion. i am sure you have much more meteorlogical schooling than me (i just have a BA in Math, but try to learn as much weather stuff as i can on my own). if i sound amatuerish, that is because i am an amatuer. so, i hope that you don't think that i am nagging. i just figure that the more i can pick your brain, the more i can learn.

by the way, did anyone ever give StormTop his/her credit for calling Katrina a cat 5?
heres a good one. zoom into the cdo and wathc the loop. u will seeit pop up in the last img

vis sat img showing forming eye feature
hill i neevr once contadicted myself. i ahve said a landfall in ga is the most likley to me right now but its 5 days out. but thanks anyway


saint, what are we wrong about. ur not making any sense

scott no its allgood man. ur trying to learn so i am showing u what i see and what i intepret from the models and data
amen hillbourogh private blog then he and the other 3 could sit on the computer till it blows up, doubt it will happen.
i guess i am secretely routing for a landfall near me, but only with TS or cat 1 force, maybe like Charley when it came through here. that wasn't too bad considering the eye passed right overhead. that is the wildest thing, my ears popped like when going up a mountian.
yeah scott, thats that low pressure in the eye. man i love weather. its cool to root for a landfall near you. i would lve for her to come closer to me i am in va but i will chse her if i can so it doesn't really matter where she goes. but my prediction is un biased. so a ga landfall is just a sgood as one in the outerbanks. so we will see. we have new modelscomming out soon. see what they say
Scotty...we got it really her bad with Charley...Tree on house and both cars...We were definately on the right quadrant of that one...lots of tornados
lefty, is that an eye feature, or a shadow from a higher cloud top? it almost looks like a shadow to me. mabye with a couple more frames it will be more obvious one way or the other.
i think its a eye feature but it could be. thast why we mentioned it to get imout on it. we will know what it is soone enough though
Hello all. Reporting from Tallahassee. Nothing interesting to note. Though Tallahassee has been TOO lucky these last two years. Because of that, I'm curious to have one come through to experience it and see how our response to it is, but just a little one.
sherry, sorry to hear that. i am not going to act like i was not blessed to not have any damage. the only limbs that fell blew out of trees in my yard and landed in my neighbor's yard. so, we were very fortunate as were all the residents in my neighborhood, despite the eye passing over us. we luckily did not have any tornadoes too close to us.
thanks lefty will tell the coast nothing to worry about lefty says storm not going to gulf. just like betsy elena frdrick georges katrina andrew and all the rest the gfs turned out to sea. shame on me for falling in a trap of arguing with model
worshippers. and max mayfields siblings. georgia get ready for some sunshine lol.
It was quite the experience...2 hours in a small closet with my husband, 5 year old a 1 month old and 2 BIG dogs...LOL...
saint if u read my posts i said its unlikley but not out of the picture as of yet. we won't knoiw what areas will not see a landfall till we have a beeter oncensus of the models or she starts her loop. landfall anywhere on the east coast would be 7-9 days from now. but i never once said it won't happen just unlikley.

i also stated to listen to the nhc and ur local nws. i am here doing what i do to disccus it. this is a blog and u need to realise that
BUT..I do have to say I am very fortunate. after what has gone on this year, what I went through is nothing and my heart really aches for those in the gulf coast states..
yes sherryb. katrina was just tragedy. i hate to love sometyhing so much that could do so much damage and pain.
I agree Sherry. The devestation is almost overwhelming. I can't imagine being in the midst of it. I saw the pieces on CNN about the poor pets too. Sad.
Lefty, or anyone else... how reliable is this site?.. be patient it may take a few seconds to get rolling.

http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/dods/atlatrop_slp.html
Trying to do your best to prepare for something as catastophic as a hurricane is not arrogance - it is survival. God gave us the minds to think, understand and accept, but not to ignore. By accusing "model watchers" of being arrogant is just as me accusing you of being ignorant.
its just another model. looked like the gfs but it might be their own personal model they comoputed. its showing pretty much what all the models are showing to some extent. ne kick with a loop back tot he us and a landfall somewhere in the se us
thank you tally, she is mad cause she felt let down by the nhc forcasts on katrina. i provided her wiht links showing that the nhc had the landfall predicted riday afternoon. more than 3 days time. thats a good forcast in my opinion and i am sorry that we can only predict out 3-5 days. in a few years we might be upto 7 days. thats what we are trying todo. to save lives. the nhc didn't create katrina but they did forcast her track the best they could. some stirms are easier to forcast thna others. thats life.
The shadow theory for the eye is a good thought since there are some cloud tops at 48,000 feet. But it now looks like there is a bowl forming. Remember the fantastic hurricane hunter photos of Katrina with a tiny eye but larger bowl feature?
yeah it looks like def dimple now. we will see. all we can do is watch and wait lol
leftyy...that is great about you daughter....my son, who is 12, is the exact same way. He loves the weather just as much as I do
Lucky, I have to admit, I loved to hear that your kid likes the weather. I have very fond memories in Pennsylvania creeping along behind my dad as we tried to catch a glimpse of the few tonados that touched down over the years. She'll definitely remember these days when she grows up. I know I did.
hooked i thought it had formed lasty night when it blew up some cold cloud tops but it died down againa today. it my develop some but i don't see it happening.

i also state again i do not like joe.b or accuweather. sorry but i don't. i am sure her will say he forcasted the loop when it happens when we all saw hime say she would go accros florida. just my opinion
man, on radar some really high cloud tops showing up.
Does anyone know when the new models come out.. or has some already come out???
no word on stormtop.

yeah couple weeks ago me and just my daughter drove out to the country at about 3am to lie in a field and watch the metor shower. now that was one of the best times i have ever had with my daughter. wife was tired didn't want to go lol
Joe B. is great, I am glad you are up front about your feelings, whom do you look up to, in the biz?
Greetings All... first time here.

My thanks to those who contribute their insights, observations, predicitions and links. I have appreciated reading for a few weeks now.

PLEASE, those of you who are the positive contributors, will you just ignore those who come on the site to challenge and critique you?

Perhaps if you ignore them by NOT responding, they will stop their time wasting jibberish!

Keep up the good work!
some new models should be out now and soon the rest will be out
lefty where do you get the VORTEX messages from?
Hey Lefty, I am finding it more and more impossible to believe that this isn't already a Cat1. I am right at the Cape (KSC) and "hunkered" in Cocoa for all three last year. I am actually scared to walk to my car and drive in this wind! It is starting to howl outside and I am not exaggerating. It has been constant with no let up at all for at least 4 hours - I am closer to the center I guess than others in Brevard. I am having flashbacks of Frances - stuff is blowing everywhere, signs shaking hard, light posts bending - I'm going home!
Point taken SRQgal. Apologies to all.
dr. hope from twc, rest in peace, and my local weather man bob ryan, bob is the expert on nor,easter which i lovew and he has been on the science channel a few times disscussing them


oke gfdl came out. not much change there still looks to be to fast here is a linktosome models watch out casue the screen is messed up but tis the best i have right now other than numerical models which are hard to decipher quickly

models
Thanks for the link lefty.. btw.. 420 got any meaning??......
What do you guys think about the latest radar images? It looks like she tried wrap a tight band of storms but it collapsed.
I'm not as good at this stuff as you all are, but I'm terribly addicted to your site. I am learning a lot. I have been reading for months. Thanks for all the really interesting information.
the nws website, weather.gov, click hurricane link on the left and you have tons of info or from wunderground here is a link towunderground. if u scrolldown they have links to the vortex messages near the bottom


wunderground tropicalpage
lol i think we know what 420 is lol.
its just trying toorginise but by the banding evedent and the strong convection u can tell its getting stroner.


would love to be on the beach in florida right now
hehehehe ---I HAD to ask! it was killing me!
Guys, who makes these models and why in the heck do we use them? right now, Ophelia can go in any direction and be any strength and one of them will be right.. I have noticed that these models are completely out to lunch, dinner, dessert, and cocktails. IT IS RIDICULOUS. They are never right, who holds these people responsible it they are completely wrong? Some of these 5 days ago didn't even see a tropical system off of FL
My in-laws live in Merritt Island (basically due west of the storm), I'll have to call them tonight and see how the conditions are.
I think if you look at the melbourne radial her winds are definitely picking up.
hooked no one said ui had to use the models. i do and i stick by them. also somemodels are not good at developing a system like the gfs is, which i might add forcasted ophellia and nate 5-7 days ago. just some food for thought


its all good zane somepeople don't ask so do lol
So, what needs to happen with this Ophelia so some idea of forecast track can be developed?



is it just going to sit and spin, throwing rain and breezes at FL for a few days or weeks...? how long could this storm just sit there, wobbling around? i mean whats the record life of a hurricane?
....but is it a hurricane yet? last i saw it was 989mb and winds of 60mph...if i remember right.
Weather report (radio) in Jacksonville just now:

"Extremely heavy showers to the south as rain bands pass. We are receiving all indications that this [Ophelia] will move out to the East and become a hurricane today."
Hello guys..I am here in St Augustine..Conditions really going down hill here the last few hours...we are starting to gust over 40mph now..the winds have steadily gotten stronger throughout the day..alot of rain form time to time...I am work so havent been down by the beach..i am about 3 miles from the beach...will try and get down there after work tonite..and see some action..lol..
i know she aint going to go any where for some time and when she does move it will be to the nnne or to the ne. will she loop well i think she will when and where i don't know

just my prediction hooked, also the models are in somewhat of a concensus now so its getting more clearon what she will do
379. sjack
SRQgal, I'm new here as well. Been reading for a couple of days now following Ophelia. The gibberish is sometimes entertaining and reminds of when Bill Nye was a guest on American Chopper. lol Okay so it never happened.

I enjoy the valid discussions and even leftys. Keep up the good discussion and a vigil eye on Ophelia!
It's still all good here in Jax.. It's crazy, 'cause St. Augustine is only 30 miles south!
So should we be giving the GFS more weight with this storm?
ice she will sit there for another 12-24 hrs than start to drift ne in respnse to the approaching trof, that trof will kick her ne into a weakness left by nate. a building ridge behind nate will kick he back wnw or nw and she will hit somwwhere along the se us coast in 7-9 days
lefty, i plan on heading over to the beach here after work and i will let you know what is going on in daytona.
Prayers for StormTop and all the others in the Louisiana-Mississippi-Alabama disaster area especially those who are missing and perhaps dead. Many of us probably know people who have not survived and don't realize it yet. I have learned in the last few days of people I know who continue to be missing. On the northern gulf coast, there are many stories of people who survived through great danger.
Dare I say we already have a hurricane on our hands?
i have been to soime degree hooked but the gfs is not good with a loop all the time. sometime it is some time it isn't. it shows a loop that takes her intot he outerbanks in 7-9 days. i don't think it will be that far north but i think a loop is looking highley likley
yeah scott do that man. wouldlove the update
They were also in consensus on hitting the panhandle of FL 4 days out on Katrina..
its looking that way, if not she is close maybe 70mph winds
A question from a weather layman...Could this major solar eruption that is affecting satellites and high frequency communications also have an impact on the model readings that are all over the place on predicting Ophelia?
hooked no thery werent. the gfld and ukmet took her intot he gulf. thats what most people keep forgetting

new vortex out. pressure noe 985mb




508
URNT12 KNHC 082001
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 08/19:43:50Z
B. 28 deg 34 min N
079 deg 27 min W
C. 850 mb 1316 m
D. 70 kt
E. 42 deg 015 nm
F. 130 deg 066 kt
G. 041 deg 012 nm
H. 985 mb
I. 19 C/ 1534 m
J. 24 C/ 1528 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. OPEN NE
M. C15
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF300 0616A OPHELIA OB 09
MAX FL WIND 66 KT NE QUAD 19:40:00

I'd love to be on the cape right now.
leftyy, take a look at this. What do you make of the push coming from the plains into the SE?

Link
508
URNT12 KNHC 082001
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 08/19:43:50Z
B. 28 deg 34 min N
079 deg 27 min W
C. 850 mb 1316 m
D. 70 kt
E. 42 deg 015 nm
F. 130 deg 066 kt
G. 041 deg 012 nm
H. 985 mb
I. 19 C/ 1534 m
J. 24 C/ 1528 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. OPEN NE
M. C15
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF300 0616A OPHELIA OB 09
MAX FL WIND 66 KT NE QUAD 19:40:00 Z
MAX FL TEMP 25 C, 36 / 6NM
Zane, where are you located in Jax? I'm in Mandarin and all day it's been feeling like the sky is gonna fall...yet nothing yet.

Actually this weather reminds me of a really gloomy and windy winter's day.
hootie no. the models are computer runs absed on surface obs and weather ballons. they models are not all over the place.they all show a ne movement in 24-36 hours and a loop back to the us landfall in 7-9 days. they just differ on where she will make that loop
thx Lefty.... those dots on the map and 'cone of inconsistency' don't mean to much to me without some w ords to explain them, and the WS bulletins are hard for me to read.





Wow 10 degree temp gradient! 70 Knot surface winds. I wonder if the nhc will take that 70 knot value as "characteristic of the storm' now.
thats the trof in that link u gave. thats what will kick here ne.
That's what I thought....what do you think...movement by tomorrow afternoon
she will be a cane at the 5pm advisory. they havene't issue a new adv yet casue the 5pm is going to be out in less than an hour
if i am reading the vortex message correctly, did the storm move to the se since the last advisory?
yeah u should see a n or ne drift begin tonight or later tomm and an increas in forwards speed for 24 hrs than she will slow again and might even stall for a time befor she loops back to the us
diurnal thing again?
maybe slightly. she will wobble and make cyclonic loops of movment. also the last advisory was an estimate. her genral motion is still stationary. she will be moving ne is 12-24 hrs
omigod wil!. it reminds me of that too.. you must not be a native Jax resident--. I work in San Marco.. pretty gloomy.. not a whole lot of rain though. I live in Argyle..
409. Peff
Flemming Island (Clay County)here.... It is a gloomy day, but so far very little rain and wind.
lefty, sorry to beat a dead horse, but could the BAMM model be seeing the trof as pushing opelia to the se instead of pulling it to the ne? maybe the small jog to the se is a "push" in advance of the trof?
Radar clearly shows the storm continuing to slowly deepen, but it is still in a fight against dry air in the east quadrant. The storms this season have been very resilient. Ophelia has loads of dry air to the north and has had some dry air to the southeast with steady light to moderate southeasterly shear for days, yet all she does is sit there and slowly drop those millibars.
I've just been out and about in Tville and the winds and rain have picked up. The flags were really wipping in the wind. There have been some dark bands of clouds streaking by. I'm trying to decide if I should bet Lefty another 6 pack on Cat 1 development by 5 pm.
hurriphoon, she is a cane right now. recon fixed winfds at 70kt at the surface. so call it a minimla cane


scott,the bamm is only good for 2-3 days out at best and is not the best model. if one of the major models shift inline with it than it might be a situation we need to watch even closer
Work in san marco live in argyle? agh what a commute!

Well Zane we'll see if this cane brings some snow in with it ;)

Lefty do you really think a cane by 5pm advisory? I think thats a pretty big deal...
Lefty, I've been studying buoy data and think it will be a bit longer before it's offcial called a Cat 1 by the NHC. So, I'll go out on the limb and bet another 6 pack that she wond't be a NHC by 5 pm.
well if the vortex message was right and they fixed the winds at 70kt like it sayd than it is a cane plus the pressure is 985mb. that is low for ts. morelike a cat1 pressure
Of course nowdays the decision to call a Cat 1 cane may be "politcal" as well as scientific.
Dr. Masters just posted a new development that it should be a cat 1 by 5 or 11.
I am guessing the NHC might call Ophelia a 70 mph tropical storm at 5pm. I don't think they have yet found wind strong enough to call it a hurricane, even though the 985 mb pressure is typically associated with a minimal hurricane.
I take that back. I did not see that 70 kt surface wind estimate on the latest recon report. I was only looking at the max observed flight level wind that says only 66 kts. 70 kts would certainly make it a hurricane.
I HEARE LEFTY IS CALLING HIMSELF SEXY i ll bet he has ace all over his face and weres pants up to his belly that hangs out lol
I HEARE LEFTY IS CALLING HIMSELF SEXY i ll bet he has ace all over his face and weres pants up to his belly that hangs out lol
I HEARE LEFTY IS CALLING HIMSELF SEXY i ll bet he has ace all over his face and weres pants up to his belly that hangs out lol