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Ophelia re-strengthening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:14 PM GMT on September 09, 2005

Ophelia weakened last night, as strong upper-level winds out of the south continued to shear the storm's southeast side. The NOAA high-altitude jet measured a thin layer of southerly winds of 20 - 30 knots at the top of the storm, which is a significant amount of shear. Ophelia had been able to slowly strengthen the past two days in the presence of 10 - 15 knots of shearing winds, but 20 - 30 knots of shear almost always causes weakening, as we observed.

Indications are now that the shear has relaxed significantly, and Ophelia is intensifying once more. The 8am EDT hurricane hunter flight found a center pressure of 983 mb, Ophelia's lowest pressure yet. This is a drop of eight mb in just four hours, the fastest rate of intensification we've seen with this storm so far. The 10am hurricane hunter report shows the pressure has stopped dropping, though, with a 984 mb reading. Satellite imagery shows a well-organized and expanding area of outflow, but restricted on the southeast side where the shear is. The storm is growing in size, and is transitioning from a small storm to a medium-sized one.

Ophelias's surface winds are below hurricane force, but with the large fall in pressure seen by the hurricane hunters, it is only a matter of 12 hours or so until the winds increase to hurricane force once more. The maximum observed winds at 8am were only 57 knots (65 mph) at 5,000 feet altitude, but had increased to 67 knots (77 mph) on the 10am hurricane hunter eye report. The maximum temperature in the eye was 2C warmer than just outside the eye, which is not very impressive. This difference was 5C yesterday. Doppler radar wind estimates also indicate maximum winds are below hurricane force.


Figure 1. Wind speed estimates from the Melbourne Doppler radar. The red colors on the south side of the eyewall indicate strong winds blowing away from the radar. Because the radar uses the Doppler effect to measure wind speed, it cannot tell what the wind speed is when the winds don't have a component of motion towards or away from the radar. Thus, winds on the east and west eyewall are coded white (a speed of zero towards the radar) and the winds on the north eyewall are coded blue (blowing towards the radar).

Ophelia's signature on long range radar out of Melbourne is not too impressive; only half an eyewall is apparent. Very little convection exists on the east side of the storm. The radar also indicates a slow north-norhteast motion away from Florida. Looking at this radar signature, it is surprising to me that the hurricane hunters measured such a large drop in pressure.

OK, now the "where will Ophelia go?" game. We are still at least four days from a possible landfall, and steering currents are weak, so the track forecast is highly uncertain. Data from the NOAA jet's high-altitude mission last night were used to help initialize the computer models today, and they are much more tightly clustered. This gives credence to the idea of a landfall in Georgia or South Carolina sometime in the Tuesday - Thursday timeframe. The NHC did not buy this initially, prefering to see another run of the models before committing to this idea. Now, however, they have come on-board and are also forecasting a landfall in South Carolina four days from now. Certainly, residents of Florida and North Carolina cannot breathe easy yet, until the models portray a more consistent picture of Ophelia's future track.

The intensity forecast, as usual, is highly speculative and low-confidence. The models all show Ophelia strengthening to a Category 1 to Category 3 hurricane by five days from now. The shear that has dogged Ophelia its entire life is forecast to remain, at least in the short term. A weak trough pushing off of the East Coast Saturday may also generate some shear the next few days, as could a large upper-level low over Puerto Rico approaching from the east. Dry air on the north side of the storm may also be a problem for Ophelia. Clearly, there are many hurdles for Ophelia to overcome. That being said, this storm has shown the ability to intensify in the presence of some modest shear, and as she expands in size, will be able to shrug off the shearing winds surrounding her more easily. Ophelia is over warm Gulf Stream waters and will remain so for the next five days. All these factors considered, and given the fact that hurricanes during this unprecedented hurricane season of 2005 have shown an uncanny ability to become intense hurricanes, it would be no surprise if Ophelia grows to a Category 2 or 3 hurricane by early next week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Maria and Nate are both weakening tropical storms with just a day or two left to live as they move northeast over cold waters. The rest of the tropics are quiet.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Possibly a 3 eventually?
I worry with her slow movement, that loop will happen sooner than later, and that may also put FL back at risk....wait and see...
she seems like she is exploding out there, even without her east side convection on radar...is it possible it is out of range?
Stormydee....that is what I am affraid of..the fact that she stoped moving again..she really needs go get moving a lot further east for us to be out of harms way
The TV weather told us here in FL to keep watching just in case she doesn't make a complete loop-d-loop...of course, local ones are always keeping our guard up since last year.
Still keeping my guard up here in NC. I'll be glad when this loop completes and we can get a little more certainty to work with.

I hate to hear that it could get up to a Cat 3 status before landfall.

anyone have a link of a close up i.r. satellite loop?
she's getting more well-rounded, update should be out soon...
CNN showed 15 models and most were in agreement with exactly what Jeff said. Not forecasting any intensity though. I hope it heads this way. We could use the rain and cooler temps here in columbia.... just as long as it doesn't drag along all the politicians. (lol) Well, maybe Joe Scarborough.
its out, still moving away, warnings and watches discontinued.
that thing is going to be out there forever
Hi Dee, try this http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html It's interactive - enter the # of loops, animate and click on the storm. It's pretty cool... cya!
anybody know why the nhc has not updated since 5a.m.? Here in Deltona we are watching pretty close..
Is that link valid? Kinda new to this..
i really like these type images
RAMSDIS
how worried should savannah GA be?
thanks C, was looking for a closer shot.
Wow she's just steaming along at 5mph NE which is light speed compared to her previous movement. Today we will know how fast she can go!

She also seems to be approaching cat 1 status again.

impressive icebear, thanks!
Looking at the latest NHC 5 day track, It doesn't look good for the coast of SC. I know that that far out, that there could be large fluctuations, but everyone along the GA/SC/NC coast needs to be watching this one closely. The way she's been behaving, she could very easily be a big surprise to someone. Don't get caught like NO!!
the latest NHC track I can find is from 5 am -with one promised at 8 and then 11 - but still nothing. Kinda strange isn't it? Is there a better place or another link for NHC info?
And this page has lots of images, links and the update texts
CrownWeather
Here's a good nhc link that allows you to add wind directions, fronts, etc., by clicking on the check boxes at the top of the map:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-ir4-loop.html
Here's a closer-up link:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
At 11:37EDT, I checked NOAA, and they were still on Discussion 12 - 5AM. I then checked Weather Underground, and they have Discussion 13 - 11AM !!! It has been taking a very long time for NOAA to post these things for the past two days.
Good thing we are not overly concerned with this one . .
Last NHC discussion said:

"ONE BY ONE...RELIABLE MODELS HAVE BEEN CHANGING THEIR TUNE TO MIMIC
THE GFDL...AND UNANIMOUSLY BRING OPHELIA BACK TO THE UNITED
STATES IN ABOUT 4 TO 5 DAYS. THIS MODEL CONSENSUS IS THE BASIS TO BRING OPHELIA AS A HURRICANE TOWARD THE GEORGIA OR SOUTH CAROLINA COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS."
nice rain band just came thru my area...I thought it was far enough away...she must be getting stronger.
The seson why is simple....It is getting farther away from radar and echos on the east side begin to fade,and as far as I am concerned an eyewall HAS begun to form again and isn't that immpressive still on the east side but seems to be finally coming tother now where this thing goes I do not know but the GA SC coast seems highly unlikely parly because landfalls are rare there.Also I believe FL or NC,but in between seems unlikely.
thanks for the closeup mouseybabe
I have a gut feeling, not a prediction, that Ophelia is going to make landfall near Savannah Georgia, but I hope our luck maintains and she curves back out to sea and doesn't make landfall anywhere.
whats everyone think about ophelias untimate path I saw paths from ga/fla border up to charlston sc.?? do u think Fla is out of the woods after ophelias loops back??
I do not know but the GA SC coast seems highly unlikely parly because landfalls are rare there.Also I believe FL or NC,but in between seems unlikely.

GA / SC hasn't had a hit lately, but neither had New Orleans.

I well remember Hugo tearing through SC and doing serious damage all the way up into the mountains of NC/VA.

Yes and larger significantly larger,I believe this will become a large hurricane over the next several days,I believe that florida BY NO MEANS should let their guard down,because for one all of the storms I know that have done a loop out in the atlantic with this situation have made landfall in florida,and the fact that the GA,SC are gets very little landfalls also makes me wonder....But not saying it can't make landfall there and they need to wacth very closely too,but I am saying seems thew risk is lower there.
WoW!

That dry air off shooting off the coast tore Nate a new one.

Wrecked it.....Link
Ive seen alot of past hurricane tracks, very rarely does one come into Ga coast from the east, but, with the season we've had so far I guess anythings possible
Link Looks like the front is pushing south pretty hard, wonder if that will stop her north track sooner.
That dry air off shooting off the coast tore Nate a new one.

I hope the same thing happens to Ophelia.
Ophelia is a Peculiar cyclone.

great opening statement... yeah, central/northern FL. right now, wouldn't discount southern, but would have to make a pretty big loop-d-loop, which given this season isn't out of the question...
Yes I know but that is 1,the NO area has had 2 big ones in the past 100 yrears,and that is 2 staes and the NO area is a much smaller area you are talkin.Also to be far in comparing I will ad mississipi and alabama to make the coastlind difference equal and that make that area MUCH more likely than the ga/sc area.As I said though not saying it cannot happen,just giving out some thoughts and facts here.
The dry air is trying to but the storm is doing a good job fighting it.
that trough looks to be digging deep stormydee seems it would just pick her up n send her to her b/f nate lol. but deep high suppose to build in behind it and send her back to US. as if we need another hurricane landfall this year
well, hurricanes are no longer following patterns, like Francis and Jeanne hitting w/in 5 miles of eachother on a rare location for a hurricanes to hit Florida; got that rare spot twice within weeks of eachother. So, I wouldn't use history to determine her future...she will land wherever she wants no matter what statistics have to say...
and the fact that the GA,SC are gets very little landfalls

Jedkins I, for one, hope that holds true.
if you look at the "official" 5-day forecast map, there isn't any clustering now and there isn't even a representation of a loop... sure is unsettling
the GFDL has been persistent on a GA landfall last run I saw it had it comin in just north of Ga/Fla border near st. mary's area then loopin up towards atlanta
Link...seeing that eye form again...
the GFDL has been persistent on a GA landfall last run I saw it had it comin in just north of Ga/Fla border near st. mary's area then loopin up towards atlanta

If that holds true then that would put Savannah in the worst part of the storm...
everyone feel now that the gulf is out of the woods? havent saw any new models showin ophelia crossing Fla and entering the gulf, thank goodness
looks like i'll be in south carolina for this one. stormj if ur on my wife is not happy but i am comming lol

i mentioned yesterday that the gfdl was faster in speed and after an upper air recon last night and that info added into the models looks like the gfdl finally had its act togetehr. feel landfall will be close to charlston as a cat 2 we will see.


naw i amgood. wife is really not happy bout me going to sc
thers a loop. its not a big loop but she makes a loop similar to the gfdl. mostlikely land fall will be north of the gfdl as the there is a slight spread in the models but feel it will be sc
Obsidian if that course held true St. Simons would get the worst--but I think she will hit SC 115 mph 957 mb near Beaufort. I guess my prediction that the storm would never make landfall is going to be wrong.
for the gulf to be in the possible realmall of themodels and all of the forcasters would be outto lunch. she won't make it to the gulf and as time goes by we will see north florda out of the threat from the possible landfall.
oh and landfall on the morning of Wednesday the 14th.
When would you depart for SC lefty? GFDL and UKMET seem to point at SC, but it's still too eary to tell.

I suppose if the storm were to hit Georgia then SC is close enough to justify the rest of your drive. SC or bust!
Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 13


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 09, 2005



Ophelia is a Peculiar cyclone. Satellite intensity estimates from
all agencies indicate that Ophelia is a hurricane and the latest
minimum pressure reported by a NOAA reconnaissance plane was 983
mb. Normally...this value would correspond to a system of hurricane
strength. However...the maximum flight-level winds and the maximum
surface winds measured by the SFMR on board of the plane are 65
knots and 49 knots respectively. Therefore...the initial intensity
is kept at 55 knots. However...given the cloud pattern and The Drop
in pressure...Ophelia is forecast to become a hurricane within the
next 12 hours.

Ophelia is moving very slowly toward the north-northeast or 030
degrees at 4 knots. Steering currents remain weak and the cyclone
is located at the southern extent of a mid-latitude trough. This
trough will bring Ophelia slowly toward the northeast for about a
day or two. Then...a strong high pressure ridge is forecast to
develop over the eastern United States. This pattern would force
Ophelia westward and west-northwestward toward the U.S. Coast.
One by one...reliable models have been changing their tune to mimic
the GFDL...and unanimously bring Ophelia back to the United
States in about 4 to 5 days. The GFS...which has been changing back
and forth...has brought Ophelia back toward the coast for the past
Two Runs. This model consensus is the basis to bring Ophelia as a
hurricane toward the Georgia or South Carolina coast in about 4
days.

Because Ophelia is currently moving away from the U.S. Coast east...
the watches and warnings have been discontinued. New watches and
warnings may be required in the next 2 to 3 days.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 09/1500z 29.5n 78.9w 55 kt
12hr VT 10/0000z 30.0n 78.5w 65 kt
24hr VT 10/1200z 30.6n 78.0w 70 kt
36hr VT 11/0000z 31.0n 77.4w 70 kt
48hr VT 11/1200z 30.5n 77.5w 70 kt
72hr VT 12/1200z 31.0n 78.5w 75 kt
96hr VT 13/1200z 31.5n 80.0w 75 kt
120hr VT 14/1200z 33.5n 81.5w 30 kt...inland


$$


and Jacksonville still has that trusty halo sitting over our heads..
well i should no by sunday if going to charlston will be an option and i seee the track shifting north more than a shift south. thats why the nhc 5 forcast is for a sc landfall. but right now looks like i be heading down there but it could change
plus i be in charleston with stormjunkie so we will get a front row seat even if it ga but we will see
so, not so much of a loop is expected now, east a bit then sharp back west and north?
Wow BAM are just all over the place, and what's the A98E?

Current Models
That sucks, I was in Charleston a few days ago. No front row for me, bleh.
wow, those models really are all over the place in comparison A98E needs ritalin
yeah ice. shole be a small aticyclonic loop. lastes gfs out now back up to nc/va border so i expect to see the models shift north again like they did last night. we might see shifst back and forth till they get closer to the event
the minor models are rarely any good and specially with loops so i wont expect to see the minor ones fall inline till she is either in the loop or out of it
yeah my wife is worried i get stuck down there for a week. i told her trust me i find away out lol
so ya'll generally agree that Central Fl is done with the Big "O"
we can't rule anything out till she starts her loop but its highley unlikely and with each model run even more unlikely
The models with Jeanne even after she finished her loop were way too far right and several had landfalls in the Carolinas --and the gfdl tracked her right up the coast until the day before landfall.
Hi everyone fasinating storm eh?

I bet the models will agree differently tommorow. Just a hunch..
The BAMM's are suppost to have the best idea of a shallow storm (weak storm) but she's forcasted to be a CAT3.

Still, I am confident Ophelia will miss central Florida even when she comes out of that anticipated loop.. The GFDL is seems consistant now.
JenD
stsimmon thats not accurate, i will fidn the link but the models were all off on the loop but once she made the loop the gfdl and the nogapps were on the moeny thru landfall. did u see the link last night
I know ya'll love the chase but I am weary of these things - got all 3 last year and lost the roof. I'll keep on lurking and learning - really find what you all have to say to be very informative. Lurking here since TD 10 died - yea right. Thanks for the great info on Kat and keep up the good work. You are appreciated by many and it seems that most of us don't mind the "chat" - thanks again!
oh i c u saw it last night, they were out to lunch but the gfs started the loop than she went out to lunch. this stimes the models seem to habdle the loop beter and the models have ari recon so they are about as good as u can expect
Currently moving at 5 mph, much faster than the expected stationary.
This made the difference for landfall. It is traveling more north, before hits the north pressure ridge. The question is... where is the ridge now.
i just want to touch them. lol i am sorry but i have to chase
Yes, I'm glad you mentioned Jeanne. Those model runs (Forecast Verification) are what make me realize that a looping storm throws a wrench into the models. The models predicted at first that she'd loop left, but she looped right. Then the models predicted she'd head northward after the loop when she actually tracked WNW.

It's the uncertainty of the loop that has me glued to this storm right now. Really I should be working on other things!
hydro, i explained last night she would start drifting which she did late last night and increase in forward speed with time, now 5mph, models are in some agreement looks like right now a landfall in sc
The nogaps was closest but 3 days before landfall was still having a right bias but it did snap into place 2 days before landfall. I just feel that it is premature to exclude areas like North Florida before the loop takes place--if she stays on a southwest path longer than expected when making her loop then GA and north FL become more likely. I actually agree that SC is the best bet, not so much based on models which I dont have a lot of confidence in 4-5 days out, especially with a looping situation, but
The 12z GFS, NOGAPS, and Canadian are now suggesting Ophelia may just barely make landfall if at all. All three models are predicting the western trough will race eastward in days 3 to 5, pick up Ophelia, and shoot it out to the northeast very quickly.
more based on climatology.
well the gfs ws 40 miles off on the loop 5 days befor than all the models followed but they all went out tolunch for 2 runs, than the nogaps tookover the pace,


also we do not know at what point they did an air recon on the atmosphere. that would help us to see what the models did afterwards.


this did one last night for this sytem and all the models came inline somewhat and all forcast aga/sc landfall though the gfs has jumped back to nc which is why the nhc and myself feel somewhere inbetween the gfdl and the gfs is the likely area which would be sc lol. next models out soon so we will see
I dunno, the NOGAPS and GFDL are nearly in line with eachother on a Georgia landfall. There still remains the possibility that she won't loop very wide or travel as far east as expected. By the way, though no big deal, she has slowed to 4mph.

Georgia's coastline is so small, but really I think we're gonna see it hit there.
we will see jax. the official forcast is for landfall just south of charlseton. so we see hoe much they shift it. maybe i will see staphanie abrahms lol
hahah! Check out THIS BLOG article about women meteorologists on TWC. It's hilarious!


Anyhow the reason I do not think it will hit Charleston is precisely because the official NHC forecast track is aimed at Charleston. I know I'm not the only Floridian to use this rule of thumb (seriously).
no its south of charleston jax which is why i am saying charlseton will get smacked lol. was using the same rule of thumb
Ah I see, you are correct. I was looking at the GFS which is aimed nearly on Charleston. My mistake!

boy, Im seeing kids with crayons again.....silly models.
Afternoon all. Have to get a shower and get a haircut, then it looks like I have to start doing some preparing. Lefty, I'll need you to get in a lobby latter so we can talk. I have a few issues I still need to work out, but we will talk tonight. I know this is still a little ways out, but the track has sped up and the model are converging.

See ya'll later.
Welcome to the Lowcountry, lefty.

StSimon, I hope you're dead wrong about a landing near Beaufort. I live in the coastal town of Mt. Pleasant, a suburb of downtown Charleston. Two miles from the beach. This place was destroyed by Hugo. Anyone remember the famous photo of the Ben Sawyer bridge being rotated sideways? I live only a few miles from there.

Anyway, we have begun making preparation. My wife and I are looking to haul especially if it does make it to major hurricane status. This disaster preparation teams here have upgraded their threat status to a 4 (out of 5) level so hopefully they will be ready to roll.

Jedkins, I just like to point out that you are correct in that we've had miracle fortune in dodging nature's punishment for the last 16 years (Floyd anyone?). It looks like our time has finally come to fruition.

I know that nothing is certain yet, but the feeling has been bad for a couple of days now. The models are coming closer and closer into agreement. We'll be ready.

Enjoy your stay here lefty. ;)
Okay I am gonna take a short break myself. How much longer 'till next models are complete?

Winds have been blowing pretty well here in south Jax, howling away in my patio. I find that a bit odd given her current distance offhsore, but I suppose they'll soon die down.
she doesn't appear she's moved very far in the past few hours, lots of deep convection around the eye...still alittle weak around the east, but improving.
new models come out soon
True Willjax, agree on the highest probaility for NC, still south Ga has a heavy probability, particularly if it slows a bit. LOL at your NHC center reference, my guess it is related to liability for higher damage issues.
Bet you are referring to Charley and Jeanne last year. If Jeanne kept the NHC track my area would have been destroyed, decided to stay (I know stupid) only because I relied heavier on wunderground.
She's looking a bit healthier now, and shes back to her 5mph direct NE track.

SCCanesfan, I was in mt. pleasant (actually patriots point) a few days ago. The new bridge that replaced the Sawyer bridge is amazing, that thing could withstand a category 6!

Ohhh sweet Halo. I don't own an xbox, but a friend of mine does and I still play far more than I should. It really needs to come with a warning label.

shoot...that NC should be NHC...
Hydro, last year is just a piece of the early NHC predictions aimed at my area. Every year we get a prediction that something is gonna pass over, and then...nothing.

I think Jax's location is perfect for avoiding direct blows from tropical systems. Really it's one of the safest spots in Fl (in a relative sense).
yeah jax i was thinking the same thing
yuck, I just watched that storm verification for Jeanne...man, I don't think I would rely on those models too much, what a mess that was last year!
I don't think that upwelling effect will apply now. This storm has it's stronger winds pushing the gulf stream towards the coast ahead of itself much the same as the NE winds do all the time. Lengthy on shore blows even put Sargasso weed from the Sargasso Sea on our beaches. I will call it the "dynamo effect" since I don't know if there is a term for that or not. I was hoping an upwelling effect would keep the old girl down somewhat but now I think she may have her way with us.
stormy, diff steering situation and not sure about air recon with those models. they did air recon last night for their new models and have another scheduled for tonight. models will come into betetr agreement with each new run afterward
WillJax... funny blog... Ophelia has made it even hotter in South Florida, any breeze we are getting is coming from the west (over land) making it hot, hot.. but, I will take that over the other option..
maybe kill, shes gonna be a good one
yeah we will take the hit here on the east coast for ya
I think from KSC to Jax is pretty safe...never had a direct hit here either...they built KSC here for a reason...
new recon out. shes getting stronger 983mb now and max fl lv winds were 72 kts


URNT12 KNHC 091740
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/1709Z
B. 29 DEG 41 MIN N
78 DEG 36 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1281 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 022 DEG 60 KT
G. 349 DEG 32 NM
H. 983 MB
I. 18 C/ 1516 M
J. 24 C/ 1659 M
K. 19 C/ NA
L. OPEN NE
M. C10
N. 12345/8
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 0916A OPHELIA OB 37
MAX FL WIND 72 KT OUTBOUND SW QUAD 1721Z
GOOD RADAR PRESENTATION

Damnit WILLJAX!! You're going to jinx us!
Jax, it's a nice bridge, eh? Just opened second week of July.

Actually, it replaced the Grace and Pearman bridges that connected Mt. P and downtown. The Ben Sawyer bridge is what connected Sullivan's Island to Isle of Palms (I think, a little rusty here). It's still there, if I remember correctly. Still sideways. A reminder of what happened here.

Patriots is nice. You get in a little golf during your stay? They just redesigned the course last year I believe, it's supposed to be pretty sweet.
I've been lurking here now for weeks - learned tons!!!! Just got this "breaking news" alert in my inbox and thought some of you might be iterested.

"AP: FEMA Director Michael Brown being removed from Hurricane Katrina relief."
Remember that picture well SCcanes. Beaufort would be the worst case for Chas. OK really off to get a haircut. And get supplies as FEMA and power crews may have to take their time seeing as they are kinda busy.
Stormy-KSC?
ya, I expected a better day today, but it keeps raining off/on, pretty hard at times, coming in from n/w, hitting the window I look out...we really don't need anymore rain here...but winds are nothing. Come on Ophelia, suck my atmosphere dry and give me some sun for the weekend!
Kennedy Space Center
Yea I just voted on CNN to fire him (87% for firing). They ought to fire all the rest of the "good ol boys" that have been appointed with no EM experience. The hurricane season is far from over and the terrorists haven't surrendered yet. I don't consider this a political statement.
Yes pretty safe bet stormy,. I thought you were talking about somewhere in SC.
Well SJ...Looks like the "bomb" AND my wedding may be safe! HA!
Sorry it was MSNBC, not CNN.
better get those supplies storm jumkie lol
so she is still tracking NE @ 5? That trough is really digging south, is that gonna affect her northerly track?
ok leftyy, I know that you cant tell all that much about movement by looking at the radar, but I could almost swear that she is moving ENE and not NE
What is up with the GFS? Did it go out to lunch or is that still a legit chance?
she might be. could be a wobble. the steering currents are weak so she will be moving somewhat erraticly but is a general nne or ne motion
sj she has flooped back and forth from sc and nc landfalls. i still feel confident she will hit either the sc/ga border or sc
Been watching the posts for a few days with interest. Now that Charleston is in the mix, even more interesting.
StormJ, that was a quick cut...lol, take it u haven't made it yet?
no that trough will help to increase her forward speed than as the ridge behind nate builds in she will slow down and the errorded ridge behind the trough will pusher her in to her loop. all still looking good for a sc landfall right now
Full article on MSNBC about FEMA directory being "relieved" of hurricane Katrina recovery efforts.

Link
from radar, recon and st img she is a hurricane, she might not be upgraded till 5pm but she looks to be vack at hurricane status
See the new Ukmet? That's rough. Coast raker. Going to get a haircut for real.
Lefty.. how big do you think she will get. Dr. Jeff said that she is a "medium sized" storm now. Do you think she is going to get big like Frances was? Also, does the bigger a storm gets have anything to do with it's intensity? Bigger meaning stronger?
yeah, feeling more confident on that sc landfall sj
stormydee let's hope so for KSC, however that was only 100 year records. The northeast Florida still received a 20% direct hit, not by a cat 4 or 5 so. Other areas from south is 40%, the nw coast has 50% of them and sw coast the rest 30%. Let's hope does not even out next years..
Plus what about the shuttle tanks in MS, unfortunately, I hear that this will delay shuttle for another year.
size has little to do with strength but the size of the wind radii, though most strong storms are smaller and tightly wond katrina was a huge monster. i am not sure how big she could get but from the sat img she looks like she will be a decent size cyclone. i also feel a cat2-cat3 is not out of the question at landfall
We are all focused on Ophelia, obviously, but is anyone else as amazed as I am at how completely dead the Cape Verde season is? It really is nuts how tropical storm numbers are being smashed while the usual major source of storms this time of year is dry as a bone.
hawk, while the storms haven't formed out that far the waves from it has i feel that the wild season is do to africa kicing out these massive waves and that the strong waves are cauuseing the dust that prevents them from forming till they get closer to the us. just a cause and eefect
why is BAMM thinking she's gonna hit FL? Come on, give me some rest!!! All else is looking like a full loop-d-loop...I truly don't wish this on anyone, esp if she is big and slow like Francis. Lefty, if you get her, you will forever be changed....Seen "Langoliers" by Stephen King?...the sound of the langoliers when they were coming to eat up time, that is what it sounds like when a wall of water is a block away, heading towards your place with such intensity, it makes you want to run!!!
I think the Sahara dust was a big player there. Hope it stays dusty.
just realised that there will be no 2pm intermediate advisory. thats rough
wow the ukmet track does suck for the coasts of SC and NC
stormydee,
Glad you saw that too. The BAMM is the best model when you have a weak system too. Perhaps once she gains CAT2 or CAT3 the BAMM will get in line with the other models?
I am finding hope in the GLDL and cannot wait to see the sun this weekend here in Orlando. =)
JenD
stormy, the bamm is not a good model for a strong ts, hurricane, it is not even being highly considered because of that. thats why the nhc forcast is for a sc landfall. they might push that little north but its looking like a good likelyhood
ask and ye shall receive, the sun just came out! First time in days....probably won't stay, though, watching how fast the clouds move...stepping out to get some Vitamin D while it lasts...ahhhh!
to me its starting to seem like ophelia once she stops her NEward progress will take a track similar to Gaston from last year
yeah, we been under high pressure here in va for days. nothing but sun but nice and cool low 80's. really nice ehre. that trof mught bring some t-storms tonight but its all good
I was thinking the same thing Hawk, it's strange because the storms that have hit aren't 10+ days out like the Cape Verde hurricanes usually are. The storms' current origins seem more like are what we'd usually see in early August.

Also unfortunately no golf in patriots point, although I did see the ghostly remnants of the bridge you were talking about.
yeah i can see that happening. dpn't think she will plow so far inland and move ne trhough cenetral sc and nc into va and out to sea
Lefty you are in VA?
We lived in Chesapeake during Isabel. How many days were you without power? We went 7 full days boy was that a windy storm. They got the mid town tunnel working good now right?
JenD
yea she might not get as far inland as gaston but i wouldnt be suprised to see her 50-75 miles inland at some point
yeah i think she will get as far inland as gaston maybe not as far but somewhat inland, just don't see her plowing hundreds of miles inland like we see with alot of storms
yeah i am just north of richmond. chased isabeal so i was in va beach when she hit. all the tunnels are back up now. but some areas along the potomac and cheaspeake still trying to rebuild from the surge. did alot of damage up the cheaspeke. yeah i live in a city so we were out for like 2 days but where my parents live in spotsylvania county it was 2 weeks and in some cases a month
Isabel was a nasty storm do you think Ophelia may hit the same way?
We will have to see where TWC sends Jim Cantore to find out for sure where the eye will pass. When Jim shows up on your shores you know it isn't good. ::cringe::
JenD
latest bamm run does not bring her across florida any more.

just let u guys in florida know
well if she skurts the coast it could be bad but isabeal was moving fast and she had a huge wind radii so i doubt it will be that bad inland as isabeal was
So the 12z UKMET has joined with the GFS, NOGAPS, and Canadian in forecasting Ophelia to approach the coast and possibly make landfall, but then quickly get turned northeastward and shot out to sea by a big trough racing east across the US.
Ophelia has definitely come back to life.....radar and satellite look better......look out georgia and south carolina..........and could be a cat 3.......everyone still needs to keep an eye out........
Lefty, anyone else, do you think we are going to have an above average October hurricane season this year? I remember that last year's October wasn't spectacular at all, despite the busy season.
That's good news Lefty all I needed to hear now to go about my weekend without worry here in East central Florida.
JenD
yeah hawk, like gaston did. she will probly come inland 100 miles and start to race ne out to sea
I would also add that if these new models are right and Ophelia just barely makes landfall and quickly gets turned northeastward that would likely mean strong southwesterly shear would weaken the storm around the time of landfall.
i think october will have a couple storms. busier than avg but not spectacular. the waters are really warm in the tropics so we will probly see activity all the way thru nov
I can't remember if it was Charley, or Ivan, but Jim Cantore showed up in Tybee Island and I was pretty anxious seeing him here, but we didn't get a major effects from either of those storms other than a few wind gusts.
any 1 feel the upper low currently movin above puerto rico, toward the west will affect ophelias track // intensity??
befor i look past day 3 hawk i wanna wait for the next upper air recon models later tonight. i don't think the trough will be that strong and its morlikely the ridge will be erroded which would allow here to get sucked into the westerlies. we can not look at each run but what they do in 2 or 3 runs togeter. we will see
gaston came pretty far inland because the center came right over raleigh, so im starting to get a little worried about the new track
i don't think that upper low will have much affect
errrr not new track but new track ideas being posted on here
It was nice while it lasted, gone for now (the sun)
Oh well, so much for the Jim Cantore effect theory.. lol
Did they move him in the middle of the storm?

During Katrina Jim Catore was in Biloxi I believe and they moved him to Gulfport If I remember right. My sister has a home in Ocean Springs MS that is still standing believe it or not the storm surge stopped in her front yard before the house.
JenD
Dash--are you in Raleigh?

I'm in Durham, but have a family place on Topsail Island and I'm trying to figure if I should just sit tight for another day or so before I go down and board it up. This one is a nail-biter for sure.

yeah, i think we will know alot after tonights 8pm runs. they will do a upper air recon for those models runs so they will be beetr than anything we have now. but i do feel once she makes landfall she will speed ne we will see
Can someone post a link that has the latest model runs? Inquiring minds in Central FL want to know...
nc, i think u can wait one more day, after tonights model runs befor you go down and board up. she will not make landfall for 5 days or so so u will have time and we should have our best idea of where she will go after those runs
yea coastal im in raleigh, some of my families friends used to have a place down at surf city but it was destoryed during fran, this one is really going to be a nail biter for sure
not changing the subject but, has any 1 herd any forecasts of how this comin winter will be temperature wise???
latest model runs


Link


also this is the graphic loop of some model runs


Link
CybrTeddy

If I remember correctly, they came here because they thought that Charley was going to come back into the Atlantic after crossing Florida from the coast right over Tybee Island. I'm sure the blogger from Tybee Island remembers well.
stormhawk no word on winter yet. i was thinking the same thing myself. i love winter storms as mucvh as i love canes. so i track them just like i do a cane. we had a dry winter here in va last year with one big storm but nothing like 2003 when we had one storm dunp 2 feet on us
hank i believe we still have a couple more weeks? i could be wrong, you can always pick up a farmers almanac which actually predicts ophielia which kinda creeps me out
nc, i think u can wait one more day, after tonights model runs befor you go down and board up. she will not make landfall for 5 days or so so u will have time and we should have our best idea of where she will go after those runs

-----

Thanks lefty. I guess I can go down there on Sunday if need be. I don't want to jump the gun on this, but I want to be pro-active. I'll be anxiously awaiting tonight's information.

in 2003 the the farmer almanc forcasted our 2 foor snow storm, had the dates off ny 2 days. that was creepy
nice link lefty to model runs never saw that one which has ukmet n fsu models
yeah nc. if u ask me u will probly have to do it just to be safe but i think u can relax aliitle and make it a saturday or sunday event lol not that it will be any fun. but yeah we will get a betetr picture tonight after the recon model runs
yea coastal im in raleigh, some of my families friends used to have a place down at surf city but it was destoryed during fran, this one is really going to be a nail biter for sure

-------

Yeah, Fran really ripped things up and this property sustained major damage. We are on the sound-side, at least. And some giant houses have been built between our house and the shore-side since Fran.

Nervous . . .

193. iyou
CybrTeddy - that's good news about your sister's house! How far inland is she?
well if the winter is as COLD as the summer has been HOT we r in for a bark buster LOL
and coastal if ophelia were to take a track that is simiar to gaston say within 50 miles topsail would more than likely be fine, but we will have to wait and see
that farmers almanac stuff said FL would have one hurricane 1st week of Sept (1-7) but Katrina was early and not in FL and Ophelia is late and not a hurricane in FL...maybe the 2006 will predict better....
yeah that page is run by fsu and while i don't use there model much the fsu is pretty good thru 3 days.
hank ive read from a couple of different places that active hurricane seasons turn into colder/more stormy winters for the eastern US
also it takes them forever to upload the modelruns to their site. their ftp serve sucks. but its good to see what a system foes and whats steering it versus a linear graphic map like here on wu
Im sure u all have been ask this lotsa times but if u had to choose a model which one would u say is more accurate n reliable???
dash i belive that. we had isebeal in 2003 and that year we had alot of good stormsdump somesnow on us
Outstanding animated link Lefty. Thanks.
lefty you are right and if i remember correctly the year after fran/bertha we got 21 inches here in raleigh
it varies but i love thr gfdl, but eahc storm is different in which model handles it best early out vs later. onthing i noticed is that the gfdl usually has the least error from storm to storm, and while the gfdl was lost 4 days ago she has got her act togetehr. but i like the gfdl the gfs and i usually split the differenc of the 2 in my predictions
yeah i remebr that. i think it has something todo with the fluidity of the atmpspher and more highs move down from canada bringing that artic air and they tend to not reced to quickly. last year those highs were there but we had not moisture lol
looks like she doesn't want to cross that 30N line....moving e/n/e now? Link Got this link earlier from this blog, pretty cool...
heres a trick i noticed last night. the ships was run last night with ophelia as a ts, they downgraded ehr the next advisory. there run just out woiht the ship she is a hurricane at the time of the run. so as of right now i think they have her as a minimal hurricane. just something i noticed
last year was the most awful winter i can remember i was very unhappy from december until spring hank i have a winter prediction for you that i just found its from the farmers almanac site its most likely just something to laugh but heres the meat of it The East is on tap for a crazy ride, with the temperatures and weather initially leading into the winter season seeming mild, but the bulk of the winter will turn out to be unusually cold, with plenty of snow especially in the northern sections, reveals Sandi Duncan, Philom, Managing Editor. The Farmers Almanac, which accurately predicted the hot, humid summer, is forecasting a more amusing winter in the West, with an overall warmer winter prediction, but with a fair share of snow and cold periods in the countrys midsections.
If anyone is interested, her's a graphical composition of the various models...not sure how fast they update it , though...

Link
arg!...i really have too much to do to have to prepare for a dadblamed hurricane...looking mor eand more like my neck of the woods though..
here is the link to last nights ships run at 2am. she was listed as a ts at that time if u notice at the top

Link

this is the run just out and she is listed as a hurricane

Link
strmy, shelooks to be moving ne buit maybe ene. i like the ramsdis site as well. us use that link alot
Lefty, why do you knwo where we can see a BAMS run?
no farmers alamanac for me...said June would be below perc. in FL, we had record high perc....but, I still check it to see.
lefty, agree on the GFDL, particularly by checking extended forecast yield some hints of what storm could do in first 3 day period. This helped me last year, blocking out the weaker storm models.
here is a link to a text version of the bamm runs just out

Link

so based on that trick i figured out you can be sure she will be listed as a minimal hurricane at 5pm, maybe stronger
depends on the site you look at but this model run shows the models starting to come together...

Ophelia Models
Stormy, Katrina was early but remember she did hit So. Fla 1st. Really woke them up to what a minumal hurricane could do.
lefty,, seems the modles keep wanting to move it more north for a hit.. you think southern NC is starting to lok like a target or do you lean more towards the gfdl on a more southern storm
what site did u find that pirate
I know lefty thinks is going to be south carolina landfall, and seeing that he called the loop-d-loop WAY WAY before anyone else.. he's probably right.... but does anyone think GA coast is out of the woods yet?
the ukmet looks most problematic, scouring the coast for days, but the gfs looks like it could stay over warm water longer for more strength...what say ye lefty?..
Yah, my friends down in south florida say that Katrina was pretty crazy even as a Cat1. I believe that emergency response personel, especially people like the director of FEMA, should be brought to the center of something like a Cat 1 DURING the so they can see the true power of what we call a "weak" storm.
Obsidian...I did here about it. However, I just moved here about 6 months ago...so I missed the "fun". I feel a little better about the models...but still watching very close. We'll see!!
yea lefty, by the way good call on the loop long before most belived
ya, but FL was only gonna have 1 supposedly...they got Dennis 1st and in July...no biggie, its all predictions, 50/50 chance of being right or wrong.
zane id say GA is looking better all the time
pirate....Hour 06 UTC is the latest?
I also think she'll be a hurricane, poss up to 80 or 85...we'll see at 5PM...
hydro there is a 12z out 12z
06 runs r the latest models? what time is that eastern? like 2 am?
thanks lowpressure. as i satted yetserday i have the ability to be wrong cause this is a hobby. i will never pretend to be betetr than the nhc as some have suggested. they save lives i dont
is lefty still here anyone... if not im usually not on here during the day so if their is anybody that has a comment on the new modles and the feeling of a NC hit please post what you think
Both Maria and Nate remnants look like they will be tracking up towards Iceland and then maybe over norway rather than hitting the UK which is a shame ( I fly kites ) so no decent wind yet, I had high hopes for both. Maybe Nate ?

I only get interested in your hurricanes when you guys have finished with them and they get carried over here. Ones that go west or hit the USA hinterland are of no interest to me, I like ones that get deflected NE ! :)

i would noit be suprised to see a ga/sc border landfall. we will know more with m,ore runs


the lastes gfs does keep her over water longer but it must be noted the gfs has shifted back and forth with each run. so i would wait to look at the gfs tonight the is run at 8pm. that will be with recon data and the most accurate. only reason i mentioned the models was to let those in central florida know none take it accros florida so that is a unlikley track
thanks dashwildwood
hey lefty, you said you would likly chase this one,, when it gets closer let me know where you r going i may be real near i live inn jacksonville, nc.. also in in the Marine's and rather it has any weight or not (probably not) they r beginning the aircraft evac plan for early next week in ness.
sorry low, i do get up fromtoime to time lol


nc landfall is still a likely possibilty. as i was stating we should be patient cause the 8pm runs that come out by 1am will give us alot of answers in my opnion
lowpressure, i believe there is now a 40-50% chance of a landfall in NC the storm may end up being so close to the coast when it makes its turn back to the WNW or NW that it runs out of ocean in central or northern SC but if i had interest on the NC coast from say topsail island southward then i would start paying more attention to ophelia
any chance that loop-d-loop will happen sooner than expected?
i'll ket u know low pressure. think i am headed to sc but thats today it could all change lol


must note my wife is not happy bout this at all lol. she hates meto chase and shes like ur gonna get stcuk for a week lol
Link
left do you use this site for your gfs on storms,, or even for winter storms for that matter
yesh stormy thats all possible
mine is not happy either left, but the passion for storms, and the study and knowledge will benifit other later in life when i finish my degree and yours as well im sure
low i use the nws site and use this to get mey gfs runs


Link
whats 06 utc or 12 utc equliavent to EST?? meaning model run times
hank 4 hours and 5 hours durring edt i belive but its 4 hrs right now. so subtract 4 hrs
stormhank:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/index.htm
UTC = z = GMT

During daylight savings 18 UTC = 2pm EDT
lefty if its not to in depth to post her could you explain the diff. in the Corse, maediue, and fine choices on the modles on that NWS site,,, if it is to in depth i understand ill just do some study.thanks
12Z=8AM EST.
a sooner loop-d-loop could change the computer models, correct?
so model runs r actually ran 6 hrs earlier than we get them
I just noticed that the 18z BAMM predicts Ophelia to move slow for the next couple days but then accelerate nne and never hit the US.

Link
hey laft,, i would have to clear this with my wife..lol but if it comes really close to NC maybee you could come here and we could use my hose for a base camp of study and observation.. im only 17 miles from topsail island.. unless you have somewhere else planned.just an idea and offer (if she allowes) lol
I would not take FL completly out of the picture yet, as it looks as if Ophelia might be taking a more slow east track and then loop late sat or sun and a N FL hit still looks possible.
hank ther models take anywehre from 3-6hrs to run. its not as simple as pushing a button. as sson as one model is ran they start working on the next. they have to inoput mounds of data


low, its just how detailed the graphic loop will be. i don't know ur internet connection but i use the medium so it doesn't take so longto load. its like haveing a big picture or a smaller picture kind of thing
no it's just they are on a clock that is 6hrs diff than e.s.t.



low that would be cool. thanks man. yeah if she goes more north of charleston u could be my backup, but by all means clear it with the wife lol. let me tell you i had a coworker who got kicked out of his house and i let hime stay on the couch for a week and the wife went nuts lol
and if i was you know in ur place low i be doing the same thing so goodlooking man
The storm is REALLY expanding now,the outer most band on the west side extends amost to tampa!
def cheaper than getting a motel room cause gas will be bad enough lol
the hurricane center and accuweather now have the same track for ophelia...i never thought i would see those 2 agree this far in advance
yeah jed. she islooking realy healthy
we will touch base on that later this weekend, and if need be get in touch on the phone to plan,, the only fee for staying if it happens will be for you to share your knowledge with me...lol.. however if we get stuck here for a week my wife would go nuts with just me here..lol
lol dash its the best possible concensus thats why. accu weaher has no ground to not follow the track specially after they tried to trump the nhc earlier and the week and got pie in their face
I would not take FL completly out of the picture yet, as it looks as if Ophelia might be taking a more slow east track and then loop late sat or sun and a N FL hit still looks possible. Lefty please look at radar and let me know if it looks like a jog more toward the east.
Final note, I am worried with her easterly movement this afternoon verses the northeast they were anticipating, which could change those computer models against me....so I will keep in tune, and maybe come and blog this weekend if the track turns unfavorably in my direction...otherwise, be safe and everyone enjoy the weekend, I know I plan to!!!
lol low mine too. i think thats why mine doesn;t mind being the working mom and me the stay at home dad cause she needs the break. u know us guys are just another kid lol

yeah man we will get in touch and work out the details if need be. could be a fun weekend. maybe i get some steaks we thorwm on the grill lol could be a fun time
yea i just love seeing accuweather fail at this point, bastardi really got annoying on tv during katrina on how they were the only ones to predict the landfall in advance blah blah blah
yes stormy enjoy ur weekend but keep one eye on the sky
yeah i personally can't stand accuweather. i am a nhc chrony lol
Lefty please look at radar and let me know if it looks like a jog more toward the east. If so FL could still be in the picture.
interested in seeing the next vortex message should be out in about an hr right befor the 5pm update
some of the accuweather guys are OK i used to enjoy reading henry margusity and joe lundbergs columns before they were put on pro....which i will not pay for....it just makes me sick that they firmly believe we should have to pay for weather insight
radar is no good right now. its at the edge of the longrange so you can't tell if she is wobling or reforming the eye. i can tell from vis sat that she appears to be heading ne but it could be ene. thats why i wnat to new vortex so we can check the center location for the last 3 hrs. that will settle it pretty much
could a more easterly motion now affect her ultimate landfall? perhaps further south down the SE coast?
bullitts, i was just noticing the same thing, quite interesting.
lol thats why i won't pay wu 5 bucks. for them to tell me soemthing i can get for free lol. i have a popup blocker so i don't have to see the ads so hey its all good
lefty, did you get my report on the conditions at daytona beach yesterday evening? i posted them but did not get to see if there was any response.
hell yes some steak,, i have to worn you i have really no weather tools except my computer and a weather raido,, and i just got ca cast on my leg because i got hurt on the base but i can still walk and if it gets wet in the storm i will just cut the cast off, ...i also have HS internet and i will try to get a pressure guage and rainfall guage but we would have to do the wind by the tree method.lol
one thing i know is she is not moving due e so she has not started the loop. when she moves due east for 3 or more hours we know she has started the loop. just be patient we will get a new recon vortex soon and we will know where she is headed
Lefty, The nogaps has shifted to a NC land fall also?
its all good man. my laptop is broken but we got your comp lol and i been meaning to get an annometer but they be mad expensive if u want more than 75mph reading but the experience is what i think we are both after. the problem is i am more willing to spend money on my xbox than on wether equipment but i will see i can russle up at the boat store myself
yeah sj, but remebr last night i told you to expect jumps notrth and south. they are flying another upp air recon tonight so the models that come out around 1 am are the ones we need to watch
I love to monitor these Hurricanes, I am no expert what so ever and do not even understand the complexity of all that is involved in the tracking but I am learning slowly. I have been listening to Lefty for awhile now on these Blogs so I decided to join in and hopefully I can learn new things. Lefty do you just do this as a hobby because you enjoy the storms also? By the way hi everyone Clearwater FL here(Tampa Bay area if for those of you not familiar with Clearwater)
i look at it like the first 2 model runs after recon are always the most accurate casue after that the models will fluctuate. after the nxt recon we should see a shift back south
bullitts, i know what you mean. i too am a novice at tracking/"predicting" these things and have learned a lot listening to lefty. i am in daytona.
That might work out good. If we can leave it up in the air for another 12hrs I amy bea ble to hit Walmart around 3am before the rush!
yeah its a hobby but i do go to schoolpart time trying to get my degree. just a couple classes a week which i miss more than i go. not in any hurry to get my degree lol. but i found u learn alot by getting involved and in another season or 2 u will have a good handle on what is going on. thanks for joining in and welcome
yeah u don't see that mad rush till its like 3 days away.
Wow she's definetely blowing up in size once more.

She is also not nearly as far out as the models run yesterday had predicted her to be by 2pm today. I'm not sure what that implies. I am beginning to think that some of the earlier models three days out might be a good indicator of her future movement.


Wow. convection to her S is really starting to expand. What does the sheer look like over the next 72 as this is the only thing that I can see to hold her back?
Only cause we will have a 12hr jump or so on the media Lefty.lol.
Iyou~ (sorry this is late in posting)
She is in Ocean Springs about 1.5 miles inland from the coast. They evacuated to JAX and they had power back to their house within 5 days of the storm hitting (not too bad) See, some good stories admist the horrible ones.
JenD
maybe. right now i find that the runs last nigth with the recon are the most accurate and thats why the nhc shifted thier track to what it is. i expect to see another concensus after tonights recon filled runs
I think it is pretty funny when I listen to other people at my work and their projections. I had a few people take the storm west right over Tampa bay and then loop in the Gulf and hit just north of the Bay area again. Then you have people that don't even know storms are out their.
Willjax, the models did not even really have her moving at all until this afternoon if I am correct. Yesterday we were still looking at a 7 to 9 days til landfall.

The GFDL shows a lot of consistency over the past few days. Then again it also insisted that she was going over FL.
shear will likley pick up to the 10-15kt range after 72 hours so she might weaken slightly befor landfall. i still feel a cat2 or cat 3 is all possible. u know i belive she is already a hurricane again. we will know in one hour
lol double bay hit that would just be wrong lol
this is the best way to view a storm check this sat imgery out

stormj i hope u like it


Link
No doubt in my mind she is a cane again. Question will be how strong will she get before the sheer picks up.
i ma getting a stormtop prediction


cat 5 lol

just playing thought i show him some love

cat3 and weakne to a cat 2 at landfall
Good link Lefty. You can really tell that she is going to wrap some moisture to her NE quad.
lefty another question.. do you put any weight in these linksLink,, i look at the atlantic tropical NGP and GFS is that good to use
Back again Gents!! Still a guessing game until new mods later huh? She is looking VERY healthy though!
u can see the cenetr an an eye trying to form but the impirtant thing is she is crossing 30n so she is still moving ne in my mind maybe a little fast 6-8 mph
Lefty, I have looked at the RAMSDIS before but had problems viewing, but I have since fixed the problem and agree that that is very good sat imgery. Still looks as it could be a little more ene, am I way off???
Have ya'll looked at the NW atlantic WV lately? I see the path of least resistence being the NNE exit before too long. I just do not see how she will push in to that area of dry air over GA/SC. Just my opinion. Please give me ya'lls thoughts.
yeah low. its just another way toplot the info. goos site thanks man
i was just noting the n movement but it looks like a ne or ene movment

yeah sj, that risg there will retreat northward behind the trof. thats wahst going to loop her. the ridge behind nate will block any further ne movement when she gets there. when she tarts the loop and how quickly thet ridge over se us retrest north will play into where she makes landfall. thats why once she starts that loop and that rudge retreats north we will have a good idea where she is going
Afternoon Tybee. We may be seeing a Nward shift in guidence. That would be good for said "bomb"lol
You can clearly see a northward component to the motion in the link that left posted. she is looking very impressive
It looks to me like the ridge is trying to follow nate as opposed to build back. This is all speculation on my part though. I just try to prove why she won't come here until I run out of legit reasons.
yeah it might shift to a sc/nc border landfall but we will see
yeah storm look at the wv loop. that area behind nate is just the part of the ridge that got split off by the trof, look south of nate and u will see a broad aticyclonic circulation. thats the building ridge that i was refering to, and it will join with that ridg behind nate to casue the blocking i am mentioning
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wow, i have a twin. notice the o instead of the 0. just cliokc onmy name guys so i will show up in a different color than the coppy cat
Got you lefty! Everyone note the 0 and the O in the different Lefty's. Please follow the Troll Alert.
i think u will see the rifge building in now sj. its easier to see whats going to happen when u can clearly see all the components
Your right SJ...Good for the Fiance' also :-)!!
wow sj look at the bubble just poping up on the vis sat its awsome


Link
u know, when the power is out and u got those candles burning its so romantic lol
18z models: Link

Link
Yea, she is really starting to get her act together.
did someone squish a bug on the map of the models?
thats not all the next model runs and shos like all 20 modles. i stikc with the major6 or so. the next gfs has not been run yet nor has the next gfdl. those are the 2 i am wating for. they won't be out till around 6 or 7 tonight
i hadn't been using the ramsdis much but i love it. i want to see that eye form. sucks it will be dark soon so we will lose this awsome sat img
Update: Link
my blog has been updated. it has scenarios for ophelia.
The Bamm's and the GFDL are at least going somewhere.
The others well, it's looks like a big model knot. OFCI (have no idea what it is) makes me nervous. Does anyone have the FSU model link?
JenD
so she is a hurricane again and the key is the ridge behind the trof. they are still calling for a landfall near chalrston sc. stormj its comming right for you.


they aslo hinted at a cat2 or 3 possibilty. i think that will be a high chane she could be a 2 or a 3 myself.
tedddy here is a link to somemodels including the fsu

Link
Lefty what site do you use to get the latest model runs? I have many sites which show the runs and they are all off and some even a day behind. Just wondering the best site to use.
Candles can be very romantic. Unless the wife is filled with hydrogen instead of oxygen.
i use the nhc website for the gfs runs and a text site for the gfdl and bam runs here are links to both


gfs model from nhc

txt site for the gfdl and bam
yeah cosmic but its more wild when they burn lol
lol Cosmic...a LOT of hydrogen around here...always :-)
The FSU model is right on line with the GFDL and BAMM it seems. Unless I am reading it wrong.
I think with landfall a week away it's still pretty hard to know exactly where for sure.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/OPHELIA.track.png

JenD
lefty the NHC has shifted slightly north agin and after landfall takes the storm into NC,seems i may well get some storm right here and not have to leave
sj its not a loop anymoreeither,its that move west the gfdl was showing coupledays ago though it still might be a small aticyclonic loop
Just be sure the wife's not full of methane (hint hint) ROTFL
teddy landfall will be monday now. she is not going to go as far east as the earlier models suggested
yeah low, looks like i be on the beach in sc for this one
Monday is not going to work for me, I need a few more days.

Yesterday we were looking at a week.
Good at least we will know sooner than later what Ophelia will do. She has been around forever it seems already. lol
I am not making any predictions till Jim Cantore is placed into an area.
Well well. . .

Ophelia is now forecasted NOT to do the loop, instead it is forecasted to nove ne and then wnw into SC. This COULD be a potential major landfall along the SC coast. GA and NC should still watch out. Until the models are consistent and clustered, it could go almost anywhere. I may agree with the NHC track but I'm not sure about the sudden northward turn after it makes landfall. I think it will move pretty far inland before it turns north.
lol yeah. i was suprised all the modles now follow the gfdl which was the fastest of all the models and now looks like a good bet.
Lol. Eye. Monday won't work. She's a lady Eye she sets the date!
is the appearant ene motion over the past hour or so a wobble or a turn? i know the adv says ne @ 7, but i cant help but think that it is now more of a ene if not more e.
doesn'tmatter if she does a loop or not. i be right in the middle of her looking up lol
scott its very clearly ne. here is a good sat img and you can see she is clearly moving ne


Link
yeah sj, later we gotta get those issues out of the way
That is what I was noting about the consistency of the GFDL. I know it was stubborn on that FL crossing for a while, but it has always shown the small loop with a faster pace and GA/SC landfall. That consistency is the only thing that tends to lead me to believe that it may be the most trustworthy with this storm. Although the Ukmet and Nogaps have been pretty decent also. The GFS is just a flip flopper right now. This is all speculation on my part.
yeah, i always like the gdl, she was out to lunch earlier in the week but she came back like i knew she would
She's a cane again.
sj u want to get in that lobby for a bit?
Man-Those troll alerts work great! Everyone seems to cooperate with them well.lmao.
Got to run out for a few Lefty, but I will be back in about an hour. Do it then?
I also disagree with how fast the NHC has Ophelia weakening once it makes landfall. It could hold its strength longer. I'm on alert now and ready to "hurricane proof" the house if necessary
yeah thats perfect. i will do some dishes and make some lunch.
Last possible chunk of dry air getting ready to approach storm as shortwave moves to the north of storm....Link...This may tend to halt intensification tonite for awhile but then Oph. should begin to ramp up again tomorrow...Probably close to CAT 2 by the end of the day Sat.
caue tomm will be a busy day. i gotta lot of things i got to do befor i roll out down ur way
lefty, is that loop centered over the storm center? looks awful jumpy, so it is hard for me to tell. still looks a little more of an easterly component. i do not deny somewhat of a northerly component, but i just think that there is a little more easterly component.
i agree with that weatherguy
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 09, 2005


...Ophelia regains hurricane strength...could become a threat to the
southeast United States coast...

interests from northern Florida through the Carolinas should closely
monitor the progress of Ophelia during the next few days.

007 I think that there is some sheer forcasted just prior to landfall. That would help in weakening, but you are not that far inland and if she ends up between Hilton Head and Chas you could see some pretty good winds up there.
Scotty, I am seeing a ene also, however the ridge behind the trof I believe is what is really going to determine landfall. Lefty do you believe FL is now definatley out of the picture? If she takes a path due east now, would the ridge behind the trof have any possibility to push her back w or wsw into FL???????????????
i think florida is safe. she would track more north in forcast than south from what i see from the data.
i would put N.FLa at less then 10% chance right now...The rest of Fla. near zero.
good evening everyone, and if i am not back on before landfall, i hope those in the path fair well. lefty, if you get there, i will be jealous, lol.
I'm still not brought with the SC landfall sanario, any number of things could happen. . .
I'm wit you Scotty, That loop is hypnotizing. Makes it look ENE to E.
And if she keeps tracking NE tonite then N.FLa would fall to near zero as well.
lol i am going thats a given. will i have a shelter probly lol. nothing is stopping me i have waited 2 yesr for a chance to chase another one.
if u use the ramsdis link u can see the log and lat lines whick are ur pionts of refrence. she might be moving a litle east of north east but its pretty much ne.

Link
Yeah Stormj,

I think we could get some good winds. Is it me or is an eye developing? Maybe now the news channels in SC will take Ophelia seriously.

I think Ophelia would not weaken much, if at all due to the shear forecasts near landfall time Ophelia has been a fighter so far.
ok just checked it. its about 500 miles and an 8 hours drive. not to bad at all. wow this is going to be awsome.
Look,currently it is beginning to move almost due eas,it will have to jump north ver fast or else it has already missed the forecast positions,but REMEMBER how hard this one is to predict and no one here should be certain at ALL where it will go,in fact I am not going to make predictions anymore I am going to wat and see with this one,this is more of a storm to track rather than forecast.
There is a eye developing and the storm is expanding at a pretty high rate,
jed, i don'tknow what ur seeing. i am looking at a loop that is 20 mins old if that and i see no motion but ne. she has not changed from that motion all day
It looks possibly like it's trying to loop now. Or that could be a lot of thunder tops blowing up on the south side of the storm?
JenD
The track has been shifting too much. When there is a consistent landfall sanario shown by the models on SC and the NHC agrees, then I will begin to believe a SC landfall is going to happen.
well sc or farther north. its cool with me. i will be leaving sunday morning or so to chase this monster
It sure wish the models sites would get rid of that stupid LBAR model, if not a couple others as well. The latest LBAR puts Ophelia in the eastern Atlantic in 5 days for crying out loud... ridiculous. All that does is make the other better models so damn small it looks like a giant ink blot.
Ophe's due for a shot of dry air.

Link

Thats gonna leave a mark.
Not really, butI may disagree on the current movement so I will not fight like a child but I will say that there has been a definate more east - notheast motion.
Well there has been dry air around it for a while now and it is fighting the dry air better than ever now,it seems a bit less likely for that to occur
thats fair jed. we will see with the next recon vortex message and so forth. i am bout toi get up gotta clean up and eat and start to make plans to leave out this weekend
a early landfall would be nice. would not make my wife miss much work and use to much pto casue i have jurry duty in nov so she will have to take time off than
That is some def dry air, humidity only 38% @ 5:20pm here in Knoxville, TN.
all right i will be back in a lil bit. stormjunkie if ur still here i will leave the lobby open for you to join in when u get done doing what u need to do
Yup guys, I'm going to early dinner. See ya around here later.
Just saw a good radar loop on local jacksonvilel television news. Her recent movement has most definitely been near due east maybe ENE, though her earlier movements were certainly NE.

John Gaughan, local tv meteorologist, also said the jacksonville are needs to see thie storm rise above 32N before we can relax.
Hurricane gordon went just offshore the NC outerbanks,than did a figure - eight came back and made landfall just a bit south of melbourne loo