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Ophelia remains weak; TD 17 forms; dangerous Nesat headed for the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:54 PM GMT on September 24, 2011

There's not much change to Tropical Storm Ophelia today, which continues to battle dry air and high wind shear. Satellite imagery shows that Ophelia has little heavy thunderstorm activity near its low level circulation center, which is mostly exposed to view. Most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms are to the east of the center, with just a few puffs of thunderstorms occasionally popping up near the center. An analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMMS group shows a high 20 - 25 knots of wind shear due to strong upper-level southwesterly winds. Water vapor satellite images show Ophelia is at the eastern edge of large area of very dry air.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Ophelia showing the low-level center exposed to view, with all the storm's heavy thunderstorms in a band several hundred miles to the east and south. This is not a healthy-looking tropical storm.

Forecast for Ophelia
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that Ophelia will experience high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots over the next five days, and will move into a region with slightly drier air. This combination of shear and dry air may be enough to dissipate Ophelia, as predicted by several of the models. However, Ophelia has maintained itself better than the models have predicted, so the storm will probably survive until at least Sunday. Even it Ophelia does dissipate, it will have the chance to regenerate by Tuesday or Wednesday, when it may encounter a region of lower wind shear. At this time, it appears that Ophelia will only be a threat to Bermuda.

TD 17 forms
Tropical Depression 17 formed in the far eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa last night, and is likely to intensify into Tropical Storm Philippe later today. TD 17 has some impressive low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow, and is very close to tropical storm strength. The predicted west-northwest to northwest track of TD 17 will put it in a position where historically, very few storms have ever gone on to hit land.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Hilary at 4:05 pm EDT September 23, 2011. At the time, Hilary was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Powerful Hurricane Hilary remains at Category 4 strength
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary remains an impressive Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds. Hilary is headed west, away from Mexico, and the storm is small enough that its outer bands are not causing flooding problems for Mexico. A trough of low pressure expected to move over the Western U.S. by the middle of the week may be strong enough to turn Hilary to the north, eventually bringing Hilary to Mexico's Baja Peninsula. The timing of this event is highly uncertain, though. Hilary is small enough that it is unlikely to bring significant drought relief to Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas if the storm's remnants move north into those states. Hilary is the fourth Category 4 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific this year, and the second strongest, behind Hurricane Dora, which had 155 mph winds.

Invest 91L set to soak North Carolina
A moderate amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has developed over the Northwestern Bahamas in association with the tail end of an old stalled front. This disturbance, Invest 91L, is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, but water vapor loops show a considerable amount of dry air to the east and west of the disturbance that will likely interfere with development. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 91L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. The disturbance has only a short window to develop, as it is headed northwards and is expected to make landfall in North Carolina by Sunday afternoon. The 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast predicts 91L will hit 35 knots of wind shear by Sunday morning, when the storm will be approaching the coast of North Carolina. Heavy rains from 91L may cause localized flooding in Morehead City, NC and surrounding regions. A moist flow of tropical air over the region has already brought rainfall amounts of 1 - 3 inches to much of Eastern North Carolina today.

Dangerous Tropical Storm Nesat headed for the Philippines
What may be the season's most dangerous storm in the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Nesat, has formed about 700 miles east of the Philippine Islands. Nesat is under a moderate 10 knots of wind shear, is embedded in a very moist environment, has very warm sea surface temperatures of 30°C under it, and a very favorable upper-level outflow pattern above it. Nesat has plenty of time to intensify into a major typhoon before its expected landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines on Tuesday morning.

I'll have an update before 2 pm Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting cat5hurricane:

Hardly. Not with those conditions out there. Those waves have been choking all year just to struggle to stay alive. Designating a system just to "designate it to meet a quota" does not count. It just doesn't.

And Katia reaching Hurricane strength was another example. When you set standards, you get gung-ho. Katia was a strong TS at best.
We have a bright one among us, guys! How do you justify that Katia was a strong tropical storm?

Forget about the atlantic, Nesat and Hilary are one bada** looking storm,
Oh yeah, meet me at tropics talk!
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Hardly. Not with those conditions out there. Those waves have been choking all year just to struggle to stay alive. Designating a system just to "designate it to meet a quota" does not count. It just doesn't.

And Katia reaching Hurricane strength was another example. When you set standards, you get gung-ho. Katia was a strong TS at best.


Katia a strong TS? LMFAO!!
A very dangerous storm is shaping up in the Western Pacific...This is going to be a very deadly and destructive system when it hits land in a few days.

Sorry for the long post of imagery, lol.

Visible:



Shortwave:



Water Vapor:



None:



AVN:



Dvorak:



JSL:



RGB:



Funktop:



Rainbow:

Quoting JNCali:


I think the synoptic pattern governing Hilary is a bit different than Linda.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Jose was the perfect example. That's the problem though. When you set the bar to those standards and govern with that criteria, then the successors this year ALSO must be governed by that criteria. NHC is just justifying an over-exaggerated season, yet again. It makes sense doesn't it?? Why would they want to lose an ounce of credibility of people who turn to them when it comes to them savings others' lives.
All I know is when they come out next year in the spring with ANOTHER in a long line of overhyped predictions for a BIG year, I'm tuning out. No more to do lists and trips to Home Depot for me. I know you now Chicken Little.
LOL.

Katia? A tropical storm? I love this blog...and hate it.

Now you see why I told everybody to put him on ignore earlier, and I got jumped for it.

By the way, I have a LOT of images on post #505, so do not quote it, just put the post number.

Miami, do you know if I got #666 the past couple of nights or not? :P
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Won't be significant enough to really have American under the gun be the time the season is about to depart.


Uh, 91L is likely to hit North Carolina, which, in the unlikely event it developed into Rina, would make four US landfalls. The long-term average is 2.3, I believe.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

You can get big waves and strong winds on a sunny day from a major hurricane 400 miles away that doesn't directly impact you.

Jose was a weak, pathetic system.
If Jose had hit the united states of america there would have been major damage.
Quoting Vincent4989:

I live in Luzon and i have only one word to say:


I don't like taking the DOOM attitude, but if you really do live there...you're screwed, simple as that.

Keep us updated if you can, but more importantly, STAY SAFE!

Quoting Vincent4989:

I live in Luzon and i have only one word to say:
Wow, you do? Keep us informed and stay safe man.
lol, back to 20% Yellow:

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMAS NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS NOT BECOME ANY
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT HAS DIMINISHED. INSTEAD...THERE IS A STRONG
LIKELIHOOD THAT IT WILL BECOME ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
By the way, I have a LOT of images on post #505, so do not quote it, just put the post number.

Miami, do you know if I got #666 the past couple of nights or not? :P

I'm guessing I'm not the only one who's obsessed with post #666.
Bonsoir everyone.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I'm guessing I'm not the only one who's obsessed with post #666.
Bonsoir everyone.


No...you are not, lol. :P

Hey.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
lol, back to 20% Yellow:

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMAS NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS NOT BECOME ANY
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT HAS DIMINISHED. INSTEAD...THERE IS A STRONG
LIKELIHOOD THAT IT WILL BECOME ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



well so march for 91L RIP
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


No...you are not, lol. :P

Hey.

91L back to 20%? Poor little invest.
520. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
We have a bright one among us, guys! How do you justify that Katia was a strong tropical storm?



Pfft...
Of course, this was 70mph at best. XD LOL!
Quoting JLPR2:


Pfft...
Of course, this was 70mph at best. XD LOL!


Nope...that's a little too high IMO.

Katia was AT BEST a 65 mph storm.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 SEP 2011 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 11:18:37 N Lon : 28:18:29 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 /1001.1mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 2.8 1.5

Center Temp : -38.2C Cloud Region Temp : -30.7C

Scene Type : SHEAR (>1.25^ TO DG)

what up with the gfs? maybe it's in a doom mode...
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
We have a bright one among us, guys! How do you justify that Katia was a strong tropical storm?

haha thats funny. on that pic when katia was 135mph she really didnt look like a cat 4 to me. more like a 3. what about you? in the picture you posted of katia you think she looks like a 3 or 4?
Again, image credit to P451:



^ 48 hours of Hurricane Hilary
526. JLPR2
Quoting BDADUDE:
If Jose had hit the united states of america there would have been major damage.


Yeah, Jose's circulation was amazing, considering it was naked most of the time before getting designated.

Here is Jose, as 91L the afternoon of the day before it got labeled Jose.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Wow, you do? Keep us informed and stay safe man.

Well since my father lives in a condominium unit with a generator, we always stay there when the power's out in the house.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
haha thats funny. on that pic when katia was 135mph she really didnt look like a cat 4 to me. more like a 3. what about you? in the picture you posted of katia you think she looks like a 3 or 4?


Looks like a borderline Category 4 hurricane to me, which is what the NHC went with.

Quoting KoritheMan:


I think the synoptic pattern governing Hilary is a bit different than Linda.
For sure.. It looks like we are forecast to have off shore flow about time we might have gotten some energy from her next week.. oh well
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT16/refresh /AL1611W5_NL_sm2+gif/204221W5_NL_sm.gif
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Nope...that's a little too high IMO.

Katia was AT BEST a 65 mph storm.

That's a bit generous, but whatever. Katia was nothing compared to Don.
so is moving west?17.9
Quoting KoritheMan:


Unlike last year, we've actually had US landfalls. True, the mean pattern has still favored recurvature, but farther west than in 2010. That is a subtle but significant change in itself.

Thank you1
We can look at this season in 2 ways{as many as you like if you care to slit hairs,}
1, The luck of the draw so far has left much of the US wild, wet and surviving. I do not for one moment discount the horrendous damage caused by Irene and lee etc. but it could have been a lot worse? I don't want to upset anybody as I seem to do sometimes but the greater scene of things is what is really happening now is that the stage is being set for a major upset in the balance of the heat distribution of the northern hemisphere.
2,The warm air is going to the far north and the cold regions will warm up to levels unprecedented in recent times.remeber it was warmer in Greenland than Florida in the winter this year at one point.
Your droughts and ours, {it hasn't rained in my village in Spain since April,}might cease to be rare events and become more usual.
Attention must be drawn to what is really happening and not what, "might have happened."
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

That's a bit generous, but whatever. Katia was nothing compared to Don.


I KNOW!

He was a monster!

BRB.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Looks like a borderline Category 4 hurricane to me, which is what the NHC went with.


if the eye was less clouded i would of gone with a 4 but still she was a nice one to track. gfs is now showing the wstern carribean disturbance developing in the epac. that makes no sense given the fact pressure in north carolina are going to be 1020 + and by cuba they are 1010mb. levi talked about it in his tidbit so it would make more sense for the carribean storm to form in the carribean
While waiting for the 25Sept_12amGMT ATCF...

TS.Ophelia's_6pmGMT_ATCF : Starting 23Sept_6pmGMT and ending 24Sept_6pmGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormOphelia's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 24Sept_6pmGMT,
the dot (mid top-edge) at 21.3n59.16w is the endpoint of the 12pmGMT straightline projection.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12pmGMT then 6pmGMT :
TS.Ophelia's travel-speed was 15.5mph(24.9k/h) on a heading of 278.7degrees(W)
TS.Ophelia was headed toward passing 3.9miles(6.3kilometres) north of NeckerIsland,BritishVirginIslands ~1days1hour from now

Copy&paste 21.3n59.16w, 15.3n53.2w-15.7n54.0w, 15.7n54.0w-16.5n54.7w, 16.5n54.7w-17.5n55.6w, 17.5n55.6w-17.7n57.0w, vij, 17.5n55.6w-18.587n64.356w, ngd into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
Quoting JLPR2:


Yeah, very light winds south of the LLC. All the action is to the NE.
Agree

uh-oh gdfl has shifter westward just like the gfs! this is 18z gdfl at 72 hours...
Interesting article on the plight of the polar animals.

Link

"Paul Nicklen makes friends with polar wildlife, photographing seals, polar bears, narwhals and others in remarkable closeups.

And Nicklen, a contributing photographer for the National Geographic, is passing along a message from the creatures he sees in the Arctic and Antarctica: They're in trouble."
Quoting aspectre:
While waiting for the 12amGMT ATCF...

TS.Ophelia's_6pmGMT_ATCF : Starting 23Sept_6pmGMT and ending 24Sept_6pmGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormOphelia's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 24Sept_6pmGMT,
the ocean half dot (midway top-edge) at 21.3n59.16w is the endpoint of the 12pmGMT straightline projection.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12mGMT then 6pmGMT :
TS.Ophelia's travel-speed was 15.5mph(24.9k/h) on a heading of 278.7degrees(W)
TS.Ophelia was headed toward passing 3.9miles(6.3kilometres) north of NeckerIsland,BritishVirginIslands ~1days1hour from now

Copy&paste 21.3n59.16w, 15.3n53.2w-15.7n54.0w, 15.7n54.0w-16.5n54.7w, 16.5n54.7w-17.5n55.6w, 17.5n55.6w-17.7n57.0w, vij, 17.5n55.6w-18.587n64.356w, ngd into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
Ehat does this straightline projection have to do with anything?
Quoting dfwstormwatch:

uh-oh gdfl has shifter westward just like the gfs! this is 18z gdfl at 72 hours...

remote linking disabled
542. SLU
Let's be honest with ourselves ... if 91L was located elsewhere in the Atlantic it would not have been mentioned in the TWO, much less be shaded with an orange crayon as it was today....
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
haha thats funny. on that pic when katia was 135mph she really didnt look like a cat 4 to me. more like a 3. what about you? in the picture you posted of katia you think she looks like a 3 or 4?
Since the eye was still occluded with upper-level cirrus clouds, it gives the appearance of a weaker cyclone, but the 135mph intensity it had at that point sounds good.
544. BDAwx
Quoting BDADUDE:
If Jose had hit the united states of america there would have been major damage.

I wouldn't say major damage, but I'd agree there would have been damage. 60mph gusts tend to do damage.

I think most of the extreme surf was due to the combination of Jose and Irene, rather than just Jose because Jose was small.
Quoting SLU:
Let's be honest with ourselves ... if 91L was located elsewhere in the Atlantic it would not have been mentioned in the TWO, much less be shaded with an orange crayon as it was today....


I wouldn't be so sure.
547. JLPR2
Hillary's eye seems to be filling in.

First flakes of the season next week in the south-east?
(North Carolina Mountains)

US National Weather Service Blacksburg VA ...air is cold enough for a flurry but would likely have to be during the night IF the moisture and cold air coincide which looks iffy at this point. Got a lot of time to look at this to see how trends go with future models including the Euro.
Quoting JLPR2:
Hillary's eye seems to be filling in.



Still likely a Category 4 hurricane...Hasn't changed much today.

Quoting Walshy:
First flakes of the season next week in the south-east?
(North Carolina Mountains)

US National Weather Service Blacksburg VA ...air is cold enough for a flurry but would likely have to be during the night IF the moisture and cold air coincide which looks iffy at this point. Got a lot of time to look at this to see how trends go with future models including the Euro.


You live in the mountains, I presume?
Quoting bambamwx:
Quoting Tazmanian:
may be it will help if you guys would PLZS stop Quoteing him and larn how too Ignor cat5hurricane: many of us have him on Ignor and mnay of you guys that dont no how too larn how too Ignor him then Quoteing him you guys by Quoteing him are all so bypassing are Ignor list by Quoteing him


plzs larn how too ues the Ignor that is what its there for




HAVE OF THE TIME I WISH THEY WOULD HAVE NEVERE PUT THE Quote ON THIS BLOG IN FAC I WISH THEY WOULD RE MOVE IT


Bahahahahahahaha.

Taz, I don't get you. You constantly complain about other folk. For example
they say fish, you say Poof
they say west, you say Poof
they say any thing against
the opinion of the blog, you say Poof.

As far as not quoting people on the blog you disagree with. You do it all the time. Few times today as a matter of fact.You are the biggest hypocrite on this blog and in my opinion, are worst than the troll itself.

The only other thing that is almost as bad as your poofs in the constant posting of that damn New Orleans radar. Geeze give it a break already. Nobody cares.

So Taz, you don't have to say Poof to me because I say POOF to my self.


This otta do it... To all a good night.....
img src="Middle finger dancing banana">

img src="Flipping the bird">
You kind of had it coming Taz. Use it constructively.
The state of North Carolina is going to get really cold late this coming week as a strong Cold Front approaches.

Lows here in the 40s are possible, and I live near the coast.
Tropical Storm Philippe is very disorganized convective wise (intensity). However, with DMAX coming, count on a significantly improved satellite presentation during the day tomorrow.

Quoting KoritheMan:


You live in the mountains, I presume?


Northern foothills, right on the east side of the Blue Ridge Mountains.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The state of North Carolina is going to get really cold late this coming week as a strong Cold Front approaches.

Lows here in the 40s are possible, and I live near the coast.


I prefer the NC falls where it stays mild thru the end of November. Strange weather this year in NC.
No change with Ophelia -

AL, 16, 2011092500, , BEST, 0, 181N, 580W, 40, 1007, TS, 34, NEQ, 225, 100, 0, 120, 1011, 165, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, M,
went fishing today and caught zip..come back and see we have a new invest heading to wilmington? great! more rain..
Quoting AvidWeatherHound:


I prefer the NC falls where it stays mild thru the end of November. Strange weather this year in NC.


Tropical Storm Lee produced an EF1 tornado on the side of Stone Mountain on Labor Day. I considered that very strange.

563. DFWjc
Quoting FrankZapper:
You kind of had it coming Taz. Use it constructively.


...but i like the New Orleans radar.... better than what we have here....
564. JLPR2
Wind-shear dropped to 15-20knots over most of Ophelia.
Noticing lots of quakes around PR.. is this normal??
Quoting Walshy:


Tropical Storm Lee produced an EF1 tornado on the side of Stone Mountain on Labor Day. I considered that very strange.



Strange indeed. Makes me wonder what this winter will be like. I do not want the amount of snow I had last winter.
Quoting JNCali:
Noticing lots of quakes around PR.. is this normal??


not really
No change with Hilary either -

EP, 09, 2011092500, , BEST, 0, 170N, 1073W, 115, 950, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 25, 20, 25, 1009, 150, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, HILARY, D,
Is Phillippe gonna make it past the Mid Atlantic Ridge?

done for the day.
goodnight.
Strange Ophelia...

Quoting Chicklit:

done for the day.
goodnight.


Good night.
574. DFWjc
Quoting JNCali:
Noticing lots of quakes around PR.. is this normal??


yeah, didn't you know the ATL is growing and the PAC is shrinking?
575. DFWjc
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Strange Ophelia...



fetus mode again, that's the 2nd storm to do this...
These last two years have reminded me of when I moved to South Fla, in the Keys, 1979 we did not see a hurricane at least until the 90's then all heck came loose, I am liking this pattern very much, I am hoping the shield will stay put. I am intrigued with weather, but I do not like hurricanes hurting any of us.
No change with Philippe either...(I'm getting bored saying that, lol).

AL, 17, 2011092500, , BEST, 0, 112N, 285W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 40, 1012, 200, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, PHILIPPE, M,
540 BDADUDE "What does this straightline projection have to do with anything?"

"Given that my straightline projections are neither forecasts nor XTRPs, time to discuss their utility..." comment (linked) already addressed that question
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
No change with Hilary either -

EP, 09, 2011092500, , BEST, 0, 170N, 1073W, 115, 950, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 25, 20, 25, 1009, 150, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, HILARY, D,
what about the tropical storm about to hit the philipenes? last i know it was 65mph. do u know if that changed?
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Strange Ophelia...



yeap lets see how much rain she will bring to us here in Puerto Rico
Quoting DFWjc:


yeah, didn't you know the ATL is growing and the PAC is shrinking?
CA want to hang with HI, Alaska can come to.
Quoting DFWjc:


...but i like the New Orleans radar.... better than what we have here....

Is FOX 8 radar OK?
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
what about the tropical storm about to hit the philipenes? last i know it was 65mph. do u know if that changed?


Joint Typhoon Warning Center: 65 mph

Japan Meteorological Agency: 60 mph
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The state of North Carolina is going to get really cold late this coming week as a strong Cold Front approaches.

Lows here in the 40s are possible, and I live near the coast.


It looks to be a 1030 mb high straight from the Yukon! Often early cold outbreaks modify very quickly. Time will tell.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The state of North Carolina is going to get really cold late this coming week as a strong Cold Front approaches.

Lows here in the 40s are possible, and I live near the coast.
I do believe that my area this winter will be quite cold.This reminds me of the summers before some of our coldest winters up here in D.C.It get's very hot during the summer and then quickly cools off in late summer into early fall...and from there it surly gets`colder.I wouldn't be surprised to catch a snowstorm sometime in December in this part of the east.As to when...Well I don't know.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
what about the tropical storm about to hit the philipenes? last i know it was 65mph. do u know if that changed?


Also, its not "about" to hit the Philippines...It still has until Monday. :P
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Joint Typhoon Warning Center: 65 mph

Japan Meteorological Agency: 60 mph
looks like a cat 1 typhoon to me
Quoting Chapelhill:


It looks to be a 1030 mb high straight from the Yukon! Often early cold outbreaks modify very quickly. Time will tell.
This is late Sept. are you not suppose to get cooler.

590. DFWjc
Quoting FrankZapper:

Is FOX 8 radar OK?


(begin sarcasm)
I could stare at that all night long....
(end of sarcasm)
591. DFWjc
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
CA want to hang with HI, Alaska can come to.


but someone once told me you could see Russia from Alaska too...are they invited?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Also, its not "about" to hit the Philippines...It still has until Monday. :P
i just want to see how strong it gets before hitting the philipenes. it has about 30 hours. the forecast is for it to be a cat 4....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
No change with Hilary either -

EP, 09, 2011092500, , BEST, 0, 170N, 1073W, 115, 950, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 25, 20, 25, 1009, 150, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, HILARY, D,



yes there is

2:00 PM PDT Sat Sep 24
Location: 16.9°N 106.8°W
Max sustained: 135 mph
Moving: W at 9 mph
Min pressure: 951 mb
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
i just want to see how strong it gets before hitting the philipenes. it has about 30 hours. the forecast is for it to be a cat 4....


Yeah...seems like really rapid intensification, huh?
Huge Fire Alert for Most of Texas Sunday, temps in 100s here with 25 to 35 mph winds and bone dry humidity. Pretty big fire burning south of me now, 99 here today. Texas will continue to burn until we get widespread rains.
Quoting Tazmanian:



yes there is

2:00 PM PDT Sat Sep 24
Location: 16.9°N 106.8°W
Max sustained: 135 mph
Moving: W at 9 mph
Min pressure: 951 mb


Okay, it dropped a millibar :P
If any country is the most used to tropical cyclones, it's the Philippines.

It's hit by twenty tropical cyclones a year. That's two-zero, twenty. Being hit by a hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season on an annual basis. They probably feel that it's so regular, it's enough to put it as the third entity in the list of inevitables, being preceded by death and taxes.

Still, best of luck to them.
Quoting DFWjc:



I could stare at that all night long....
I knew you would like it.

You really liked it?
Quoting klew136:
This is late Sept. are you not suppose to get cooler.

Generally yes, but most years Sept in N.C. is remembered for being hot and dry month.
600. DFWjc
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Huge Fire Alert for Most of Texas Sunday, temps in 100s here with 25 to 35 mph winds and bone dry humidity. Pretty big fire burning south of me now, 99 here today. Texas will continue to burn until we get widespread rains.


I love that Monday will only be 89 here...My first Monday night to work at the Stadium and I officially got promoted today and it's going to be cool and windy on my first day as Supe!!! Now if the big wigs don't hover over my shoulder it will be a great weather day for me!!!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah...seems like really rapid intensification, huh?
That typhoon needs to go to hell.Causing havoc on those people like that.This is one thing I don't like about weather.You have to see it in action and you can't do anything about it.
602. DFWjc
Quoting FrankZapper:
I knew you would like it.

You really liked it?


I'm originally from Houston and I love the weather that comes in off of the Gulf...It's really hard to explain...brings back a lot of good memories (sighs). But the only time I went to NOLA, was so, i hate to use the word awesome..i guess you could say i was awe-struck! Wonderful town....can't wait to go back again...
Quoting washingtonian115:
That typhoon needs to go to hell.Causing havoc on those people like that.This is one thing I don't like about weather.You have to see it in action and you can't do anything about it.


Well...Maybe if everybody on the coast bought a lot of fans and turned them on high, it would create enough wind shear to destroy the system.

Yeah right...LOL.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah...seems like really rapid intensification, huh?
given ssts are 86 and higher and there is an anticyclone over it then its possible. hilary looks like tomorrow she will fall to a 3 and i think she will maintain a 3 for the rest of tomorrow.
Quoting DFWjc:


I'm originally from Houston and I love the weather that comes in off of the Gulf...It's really hard to explain...brings back a lot of good memories (sighs). But the only time I went to NOLA, was so, i hate to use the word awesome..i guess you could say i was awe-struck! Wonderful town....can't wait to go back again...
It's just like Disney World. Only better.

Got to go. I hear a parade coming right now!
Q: Will the United States get hit by another hurricane before the season is out?

A. Yes
B. No
C. Unsure

I have to go with A.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
No change with Ophelia -

AL, 16, 2011092500, , BEST, 0, 181N, 580W, 40, 1007, TS, 34, NEQ, 225, 100, 0, 120, 1011, 165, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, M,





sure there is


5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 24
Location: 17.9°N 57.4°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1006 m
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: Will the United States get hit by another hurricane before the season is out?

A. Yes
B. No
C. Unsure

I have to go with A.



i pick A



Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: Will the United States get hit by another hurricane before the season is out?

A. Yes
B. No
C. Unsure

I have to go with A.

B. NO
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: Will the United States get hit by another hurricane before the season is out?

A. Yes
B. No
C. Unsure

I have to go with A.


I'm going with A
612. DFWjc
Quoting FrankZapper:
It's just like Disney World. Only better.

Got to go. I hear a parade coming right now!


I like it mostly for the music, I am trying some food that i haven't had before... Nice town to chill in, and the historic places are nice. Not to forget the weather is nice this time of year...(and no the humidity doesn't bother me)

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: Will the United States get hit by another hurricane before the season is out?

A. Yes
B. No
C. Unsure

I have to go with A.
There is a chance in October.But after October chances go down to at least 20%
Quoting washingtonian115:
There is a chance in October.But after October chances go down to at least 20%



huh? no oct is like the highets ch the usa has for land falling hurricane
Quoting Tazmanian:



huh? no oct is like the highets ch the usa has for land falling hurricane


AFTER October, Taz.
Ophelia's T-numbers are rising...Almost the highest they've been in her entire life.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


AFTER October, Taz.





wish part?


Quoting Tazmanian:





wish part?




What she is saying is that there is a chance for a USA hurricane landfall in October, but the chances significantly decrease in November.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: Will the United States get hit by another hurricane before the season is out?

A. Yes
B. No
C. Unsure

I have to go with A.
a and ill go with 2 hurricanes. same pattern as last year. not the steering but la nina and octobers. we got richard paula otto shary and tomas as hurricanes. there is a good chance we get hit by a major aswell. the steering would favor a sw florida hit and water temps are still OVER 85 degress. if shear cooperates then yes
Evening all.... we had a very rainy afternoon here, but things have slacked off since about 7 p.m. My yard is flooded... lol...

I notice NHC has taken this area down to 20% since I went out, which is a good sign. Hopefully the heavier rain has moved off to the north and whatever else we get is light. I'm kinda glad for the continued overcast, though... sure beats 95 degree highs...
623. viman
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: Will the United States get hit by another hurricane before the season is out?

A. Yes
B. No
C. Unsure

I have to go with A.


3 more - 2 in October - 1 in November
I also noticed the upgrade to Phillippe.... That storm's got good presentation... I would not be surprised to see it make a run at major status, though whether or not it actually gets there will depend a lot on what conditions are like east of PR in 3 days....
Quoting BDADUDE:
A Hurricane Spider.


banana spider
Quoting viman:


3 more - 2 in October - 1 in November


I've got to agree with that one.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Evening all.... we had a very rainy afternoon here, but things have slacked off since about 7 p.m. My yard is flooded... lol...

I notice NHC has taken this area down to 20% since I went out, which is a good sign. Hopefully the heavier rain has moved off to the north and whatever else we get is light. I'm kinda glad for the continued overcast, though... sure beats 95 degree highs...


Looking at the satellite, I was wondering how you were faring... it looked like a rumble rumble rainy day.

I felt "cooler" air breezing in here also today.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I also noticed the upgrade to Phillippe.... That storm's got good presentation... I would not be surprised to see it make a run at major status, though whether or not it actually gets there will depend a lot on what conditions are like east of PR in 3 days....
Do you think it will make it past the mid-Atlantic Ridge?
Quoting indianrivguy:


banana spider

Link

Link to hurricane spider information.
2011SEP25 004500 3.1 998.8/ +0.0 / 47.0 2.9 3.4 3.4 NO LIMIT ON OFF -64.49 -35.84 SHEAR N/A 11.34 28.62 FCST

25/0000 UTC 11.7N 27.8W T1.5/2.0 PHILIPPE

40-45 knots seems likely at 11PM...Although they may leave it at 35 knots because of the poor satellite presentation at this time.
Quoting BDADUDE:
Do you think it will make it past the mid-Atlantic Ridge?
Dunno.... NHC track looks good for now. But I'd like to see how fast this approaching trough clears out of our area, since that's likely to influence both Ophelia and eventually Phillippe.
Ophelia looks like a potato that got run over by a truck.
Quoting Tazmanian:



huh? no oct is like the highets ch the usa has for land falling hurricane
Taz I said after October.November to be precise.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Taz I said after October.November to be precise.





ok
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Looking at the satellite, I was wondering how you were faring... it looked like a rumble rumble rainy day.

I felt "cooler" air breezing in here also today.
We got a lot of rumbles all day.... heavy rain then steady rain both this a.m. and p.m. Most genuinely typical rainy season weather we've had all year. This week has been the first where we've had afternoon popup showers... u know, where it rains like the dickens for 15 minutes, then 15 minutes later u only have a few steaming puddles as proof it actually rained....
Quoting viman:


3 more - 2 in October - 1 in November
I'm predicting 4 in October.This season has thrown everyone some surprises.This is the season where anything that want's to become a tropical cyclone has the green light to go ahead a do so.
637. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Ophelia looks like a potato that got run over by a truck.


Maybe the center is trying to reform under the convection or close to it?

I'm not sure what to think of Ophelia anymore. xD
Quoting JLPR2:


Maybe the center is trying to reform under the convection or close to it?

I'm not sure what to think of Ophelia anymore. xD

My Forecast:
Days 1-7:Ophelia does whatever the hell she wants.
I give up. Lol
Quoting capeflorida:
Hey Taz.-

POOF !!!!!!




Hey capeflorida


POOF!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting capeflorida:
Hey Taz.-

POOF !!!!!!


Random?
Quoting Tazmanian:




Hey capeflorida


POOF!!!!!!!!!!
Hey Taz!
Hi.

Quoting BDADUDE:

Link

Link to hurricane spider information.



That was pretty cool, I already knew about their web building habits as old "cracker" lore, but did not know about their Bermuda name. Here is a link to a banana spider picture, its the same one.

Link
I'm wondering what Ophelia is doing on my doorstep..
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Hey Taz!
Hi.



hey whats up



am cooking some lazy pizza that dos not want too do it on its own
Quoting JLPR2:


Maybe the center is trying to reform under the convection or close to it?

I'm not sure what to think of Ophelia anymore. xD


very confused as well
648. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

My Forecast:
Days 1-7:Ophelia does whatever the hell she wants.
I give up. Lol


LOL!
Quoting BDADUDE:

Link

Link to hurricane spider information.


In florida, we call them banana Spiders. One time, as a youth, i was running through the woods with my brother, ahead of him. He yelled, "STOP!" And then he said, "turn slowly..." I turned and right in front of my face was a HUGE banana spider, in the center of her web. I screamed.. it was darn scary.. They like to build their webs on branches low to the ground or just above it, so watch where you walk when you come here to Florida. they can get very large! Maybe thats the same spider as in the islands, but with a different name.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: Will the United States get hit by another hurricane before the season is out?

A. Yes
B. No
C. Unsure

I have to go with A.


No, and you're doing it again.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

My Forecast:
Days 1-7:Ophelia does whatever the hell she wants.
I give up. Lol

Ha. Maybe in this new incarnation she can give North Carolina another visit.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NESAT (T1117)
9:00 AM JST September 25 2011
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Nesat (985 hPa) located at 14.8N 130.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 15.8N 126.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 17.1N 122.3E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 18.0N 118.3E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)

Additional Information
=======================

Severe tropical storm will decelerate for the next 24 hours

Severe tropical storm will move west northwest for the next 72 hours

Severe tropical storm will be upgraded to typhoon within 24 hours

Severe tropical storm will develop because central dense overcast has expanded and cyclone will stay in high sea surface temperature area

Final initial Dvorak number will be 4.5 after 24 hours
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
TROPICAL STORM HAITANG (T1118)
9:00 AM JST September 25 2011
=================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Haitang (996 hPa) located at 16.1N 112.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast slowly

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 16.1N 110.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 16.5N 108.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 16.9N 105.7E - Tropical Depression
Quoting Tazmanian:



hey whats up



am cooking some lazy pizza that dos not want too do it on its own


LOL Taz.

Are you going to share that pizza with us? XD
Guys...start talking...

I think 91L was deactivated, no 00Z update. And no, it doesn't say it was deactivated on the ATCF site.
657. JLPR2
If a circulation were under the convection I would be worried.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think 91L was deactivated, no 00Z update. And no, it doesn't say it was deactivated on the ATCF site.

Well, it looks like crap. I think this thing is the meteorological definition of "crap".
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


LOL Taz.

Are you going to share that pizza with us? XD




sure if you want to do the lazy dish when done
Most Recent Positions Regardless of Basin:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
25/0000 UTC 17.0N 107.3W T6.0/6.0 HILARY -- East Pacific
25/0000 UTC 11.7N 27.8W T1.5/2.0 PHILIPPE -- Atlantic
24/2345 UTC 29.5N 78.1W TOO WEAK 91L -- Atlantic
Ophelia is not going to follow the rules!
Quoting JLPR2:
If a circulation were under the convection I would be worried.


she is ok
Satellite presentation with Philippe has been improving the last few frames. A poleward outflow is being established. 40 at 11 IMO, but could be 45-60 tomorrow.
Quoting JLPR2:
If a circulation were under the convection I would be worried.

Where is her center?
665. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Where is her center?


No idea, I'm not even sure if there is one. O.o
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Satellite presentation with Philippe has been improving the last few frames.


DMAX.

Damn! I got #666 AGAIN! I'm getting scared now, lol.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/jsl-l.jpg
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


DMAX.
666 again son. LMFAO.

i'm off my phone at a garbage party so pardon any spelling errors.

yeah, the party is so bad i'm on WU lol.
669. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


DMAX.

Damn! I got #666 AGAIN! I'm getting scared now, lol.


I got it yesterday. XD

I don't know what to make of this. Need a plane in there to see where the center is at.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


DMAX.

Damn! I got #666 AGAIN! I'm getting scared now, lol.

One more and you'll be able to summon the Beast.
TS.Ophelia's_12amGMT_ATCF : Starting 24Sept_12amGMT and ending 25Sept_12amGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormOphelia's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 25Sept_12amGMT,
the sea-to-island blob at 18.587n64.356w-ngd is the endpoint of the 24Sept_6pmGMT
straightline projection connected to its nearest airport,
and the (top, middle) ocean*dot at 26.8n64.836w is the same for the 24Sept_12pmGMT.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
TS.Ophelia's travel-speed was 11.8mph(19k/h) on a heading of 292.8degrees(WNW)
TS.Ophelia was headed toward passage over RumCay,Bahamas ~3days23hours from now

Copy&paste 26.8n64.836w, 18.587n64.356w-ngd, 15.7n54.0w-16.5n54.7w, 16.5n54.7w-17.5n55.6w, 17.5n55.6w-17.7n57.0w, 17.7n57.0w-18.1n58.0w, rcy, 17.7n57.0w-23.709n74.803w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 24Sept_6pmGMT

* Endpoint chosen because it's dueSouth of southernmost Bermuda
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
666 again son. LMFAO.

i'm off my phone at a garbage party so pardon any spelling errors.

yeah, the party is so bad i'm on WU lol.


lol.

I'm cursed XD
674. JLPR2
If the center does reform to the SE, wind shear is nicer there.


Quoting JLPR2:
If the center does reform to the SE, wind shear s nicer there.




Let meh help you out a little :)

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

One more and you'll be able to summon the Beast.
Please dont wake my wife up!!
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Well, it looks like crap. I think this thing is the meteorological definition of "crap".


It's just junk!
680. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Let meh help you out a little :)



That actually makes my suspicion that a new LLC may be in the works or that a MLC took over grow.
Quoting scott39:
Please dont wake my wife up!!

O_o
LOL
Quoting JLPR2:


I got it yesterday. XD

I don't know what to make of this. Need a plane in there to see where the center is at.
I say a definite center relocation, since the NHC cant find one!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


lol.

I'm cursed XD


Irene was the least of your problems now. This coming from the guy who was hit by 6 hurricanes in 3 consecutive years.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Irene was the least of your problems now. This coming from the guy who was hit by 6 hurricanes in 3 consecutive years.


Well...that sucks...lol.
laze blog tonight
........?
.............?!
.................!
Anybody here?!!
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
........?
.............?!
.................!
Anybody here?!!


ME!!!!!!!!
690. JLPR2
Read the 5pm NHC discussion on Ophelia and I bet they are looking at the satellite images and going: WTF! too.
XD

The way the said it, they aren't 100% sure there is a LLC.

Maria all over again.
lol, I'm bored, so...

Plus this comment if you want me to leave Wunderground.

:P
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
........?
.............?!
.................!
Anybody here?!!


< Cloak Mode - Off

Lurking

< Cloak Mode - On
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


ME!!!!!!!!

Lol Blog is slower than an obese turtle.
692 Lol
695. JLPR2
Hillary's eye is becoming too small.
Quoting JLPR2:
Hillary's eye is becoming too small.

Wilma of the EPAC.
Quoting JLPR2:
Hillary's eye is becoming too small.


PINHOLE EYE!!!

*Hyperventilating*
Tropical Storm Philippe:
Sorry we aren't all around here to keep u guys amused... some of us r going out, due to decrease in rain falling and increase in boredom at home....

And since Phillippe doesn't look like we'll have RI before 2 a.m. EDT, I think I'll go out for a while.... lol

l8r, all.......
Quoting BahaHurican:
Sorry we aren't all around here to keep u guys amused... some of us r going out, due to decrease in rain falling and increase in boredom at home....

And since Phillippe doesn't look like we'll have RI before 2 a.m. EDT, I think I'll go out for a while.... lol

l8r, all.......


l8r...?

Just messin' with you :P
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Well, it looks like crap. I think this thing is the meteorological definition of "crap".


.. That would be taking a 'Jose'..
Quoting CybrTeddy:


.. That would be taking a 'Jose'..

lmao
Quoting CybrTeddy:


.. That would be taking a 'Jose'..


LOL.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
lol, I'm bored, so...

Plus this comment if you want me to leave Wunderground.

:P


No plus. Stick around.
Bored NHC?


BULLETIN
HURRICANE HILARY ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 24 2011

...NOTHING NEW ON HILARY...STILL MOVING WESTWARD WITH 135 MPH
WINDS...



SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 107.7W
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES
...NOTHING NEW ON HILARY...STILL MOVING WESTWARD WITH 135 MPH WINDS...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Bored NHC?


BULLETIN
HURRICANE HILARY ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 24 2011

...NOTHING NEW ON HILARY...STILL MOVING WESTWARD WITH 135 MPH
WINDS...



SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 107.7W
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


They must lurking on this blog too?

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 250233
TCDEP4

HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 24 2011

ALMOST EVERYTHING ABOUT HURRICANE HILARY HAS BEEN ALREADY SAID. THE
HURRICANE IS SMALL AND INTENSE AND BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES
CONTINUES WITH 115 KNOTS. THERE IS NOTHING NEW TO REPORT AT THIS
TIME EXCEPT THAT THE LATEST AMSR IMAGE SHOWS TWO CONVECTIVE BANDS
SURROUNDING THE INNER CORE...AND THESE BANDS COULD BECOME AN OUTER
EYEWALL. IF SO...IT SHOULD RESULT IN SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY IN THE SHORT TERM. THIS HAS BEEN ANTICIPATED IN EVERY
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR HILARY TO
BEGIN WEAKENING SLOWLY.

HILARY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS...STEERED
BY THE EASTERLIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST 3 MORE DAYS.
THEREAFTER...A DEEP TROUGH OR A LOW IS FORECAST TO DIG TO THE
NORTHWEST OF HILARY...AND THIS NEW PATTERN SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE
TO TURN NORTHWARD. THE MOST MARKED DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TODAY AND
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME IS THAT NOW ALL TRACK MODELS EVENTUALLY TURN
HILARY NORTHWARD. YESTERDAY...JUST A FEW MODELS DID SO. THIS
INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE THAT HILARY SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD...AND
THEREFOE IT IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS TURN AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD MAKE THE WEAKENING TREND MORE
MARKED SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER
WATERS FASTER THAN IF THE HURRICANE CONTINUES WESTWARD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 17.1N 107.7W 115 KT 135 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 17.2N 109.0W 115 KT 135 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 17.3N 110.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 17.5N 112.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 17.5N 114.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 18.0N 116.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 20.0N 116.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 23.0N 116.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


LOL.


.. I'll be here all week..

which comes as a source of annoyance to a great many people too.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 250233
TCDEP4

HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 24 2011

ALMOST EVERYTHING ABOUT HURRICANE HILARY HAS BEEN ALREADY SAID. THE
HURRICANE IS SMALL AND INTENSE AND BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES
CONTINUES WITH 115 KNOTS. THERE IS NOTHING NEW TO REPORT AT THIS
TIME EXCEPT THAT THE LATEST AMSR IMAGE SHOWS TWO CONVECTIVE BANDS
SURROUNDING THE INNER CORE...AND THESE BANDS COULD BECOME AN OUTER
EYEWALL. IF SO...IT SHOULD RESULT IN SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY IN THE SHORT TERM. THIS HAS BEEN ANTICIPATED IN EVERY
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR HILARY TO
BEGIN WEAKENING SLOWLY.

HILARY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS...STEERED
BY THE EASTERLIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST 3 MORE DAYS.
THEREAFTER...A DEEP TROUGH OR A LOW IS FORECAST TO DIG TO THE
NORTHWEST OF HILARY...AND THIS NEW PATTERN SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE
TO TURN NORTHWARD. THE MOST MARKED DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TODAY AND
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME IS THAT NOW ALL TRACK MODELS EVENTUALLY TURN
HILARY NORTHWARD. YESTERDAY...JUST A FEW MODELS DID SO. THIS
INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE THAT HILARY SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD...AND
THEREFOE IT IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS TURN AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD MAKE THE WEAKENING TREND MORE
MARKED SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER
WATERS FASTER THAN IF THE HURRICANE CONTINUES WESTWARD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 17.1N 107.7W 115 KT 135 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 17.2N 109.0W 115 KT 135 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 17.3N 110.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 17.5N 112.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 17.5N 114.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 18.0N 116.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 20.0N 116.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 23.0N 116.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



lol at the first sentence.
Ophelia -

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
...OPHELIA STRUGGLING TO SURVIVE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2011

IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER OR NOT OPHELIA STILL HAS A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER...BUT IN THE INTEREST OF CONTINUITY ADVISORIES ARE STILL
BEING ISSUED.
WITHOUT ANY NEW DATA TO CONTRADICT EARLIER
ESTIMATES...THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 40 KT...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 295/10 KT.

THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE MORE LINKED TONIGHT THAN
USUAL. OPHELIA WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AND THE EXACT TRACK WILL DEPEND ON WHAT KIND OF INTENSITY
OPHELIA CAN MAINTAIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF...USUALLY THE MOST
RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS...SHOW OPHELIA CONTINUING TO BE BATTERED BY
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY OR WESTERLY SHEAR AND THEREFORE SHOW A WEAKER
VORTEX MOVING FARTHER WEST. ON THE OTHER HAND...MANY OF THE OTHER
MODELS INDICATE THAT OPHELIA WILL STRENGTHEN AND CONSEQUENTLY TURN
NORTHWARD STEERED BY DEEPER FLOW. BASED ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT AND THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL NOT DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE COMING DAYS...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST KEEPS OPHELIA AS A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM AND LEANS IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...WHICH IS ALSO JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT OPHELIA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESURE AT ANY TIME IF IT IS DETERMINED THAT IT NO LONGER
HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. SHOULD THAT HAPPEN...NHC WOULD NO
LONGER ISSUE ADVISORIES UNLESS IT REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 18.3N 58.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 18.9N 59.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 19.8N 61.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 20.6N 62.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 21.3N 63.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 23.0N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 24.5N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 26.5N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Quoting CybrTeddy:


.. I'll be here all week..

which comes as a source of annoyance to a great many people too.


You are safe, Cyber. I think the trolls finally got a date.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


lol at the first sentence.


Didn't even have to look at the forecaster who posted it without guessing who it was, Avila has a great sense of humor.
Quoting JLPR2:
Hillary's eye is becoming too small.

How will she be able to see where she is going? I think she might start meandering.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2011

...OPHELIA STRUGGLING TO SURVIVE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 58.4W
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES



-------------

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. HOWEVER...OPHELIA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AT ANY TIME IF IT NO LONGER HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER.
IMO Ophelia is no longer a tropical cyclone, and just a sharply inverted tropical wave. Need a recon in or an ASCAT to confirm, but I expect advisories to be discontinued soon. That being said, I said the same thing about Maria and it became a hurricane a few days later.
so OPHELIA could open up soon if it has not done so yet
Quoting CybrTeddy:
IMO Ophelia is no longer a tropical cyclone, and just a sharply inverted tropical wave. Need a recon in or an ASCAT to confirm, but I expect advisories to be discontinued soon. That being said, I said the same thing about Maria and it became a hurricane a few days later.

We are gathered here today...
hmmm what about PHILIPPE come on nhc dont be that lazy
*Awaiting the NHC advisory on TS Philippe*
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

We are gathered here today...


I wouldn't call Ophelia 'RIP' yet, even if advisories are discontinued, it is pretty likely Ophelia will re-generate north of Puerto Rico and become a moderate TS again.. at least in my opinion. Similar to Colin last year.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

We are gathered here today...


Funeral .... or wedding?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2011

IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER OR NOT OPHELIA STILL HAS A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER...BUT IN THE INTEREST OF CONTINUITY ADVISORIES ARE STILL
BEING ISSUED.
WITHOUT ANY NEW DATA TO CONTRADICT EARLIER
ESTIMATES...THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 40 KT...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 295/10 KT.

THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE MORE LINKED TONIGHT THAN
USUAL. OPHELIA WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AND THE EXACT TRACK WILL DEPEND ON WHAT KIND OF INTENSITY
OPHELIA CAN MAINTAIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF...USUALLY THE MOST
RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS...SHOW OPHELIA CONTINUING TO BE BATTERED BY
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY OR WESTERLY SHEAR AND THEREFORE SHOW A WEAKER
VORTEX MOVING FARTHER WEST. ON THE OTHER HAND...MANY OF THE OTHER
MODELS INDICATE THAT OPHELIA WILL STRENGTHEN AND CONSEQUENTLY TURN
NORTHWARD STEERED BY DEEPER FLOW. BASED ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT AND THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL NOT DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE COMING DAYS...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST KEEPS OPHELIA AS A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM AND LEANS IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...WHICH IS ALSO JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT OPHELIA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESURE AT ANY TIME IF IT IS DETERMINED THAT IT NO LONGER
HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. SHOULD THAT HAPPEN...NHC WOULD NO
LONGER ISSUE ADVISORIES UNLESS IT REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 18.3N 58.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 18.9N 59.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 19.8N 61.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 20.6N 62.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 21.3N 63.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 23.0N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 24.5N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 26.5N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG


HUMMM!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
IMO Ophelia is no longer a tropical cyclone, and just a sharply inverted tropical wave. Need a recon in or an ASCAT to confirm, but I expect advisories to be discontinued soon. That being said, I said the same thing about Maria and it became a hurricane a few days later.


AGREE!
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Funeral .... or wedding?

Lol
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I wouldn't call Ophelia 'RIP' yet, even if advisories are discontinued, it is pretty likely Ophelia will re-generate north of Puerto Rico and become a moderate TS again.. at least in my opinion. Similar to Colin last year.

But for the moment, she's barely hanging on to life.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
...PHILIPPE NO THREAT TO LAND...
000
WTNT42 KNHC 250255
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2011

A 2344 UTC ASCAT PASS OVER PHILIPPE INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
IS LOCATED VERY NEAR A RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THAT
THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE PROBABLY BARELY 35 KT. SINCE THE CONVECTION
HAS BEEN ON A GENERAL UPWARD TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT.

PHILIPPE IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL
RIDGE...AND THAT RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN
NEAR THE AFRICAN COAST IN THE COMING DAYS AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THEREFORE...THE MOTION OF THE
CYCLONE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY 295/10 KT...IS FORECAST TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN AS PHILIPPE MOVES BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS
UNTIL ABOUT 72 HOURS...AFTER WHICH TIME THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A
SLOWER AND WESTWARD-LEANING MOTION WHILE THE BULK OF THE OTHER
MODELS INDICATE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST. A
SLOWER MOTION IS FAVORED SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ENDS UP CLOSE TO THE GFS BY DAY 5.

THE FORECAST TRACK OF PHILIPPE NEVER REALLY TAKES THE CYCLONE OVER
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER WATERS...AND THE UNDERLYING OCEAN SHOULD
DEFINITELY BE COOLER AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS. IN ADDITION...PHILIPPE
SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
INTO AN AREA OF STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.
THEREFORE...STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS WITH SOME WEAKENING POSSIBLE BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LIES GENERALLY CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND SHOWS
PHILIPPE BECOMING A HURRICANE IN THE 48-72 HOUR TIME FRAME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 11.6N 28.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 12.1N 30.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 13.1N 32.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 14.1N 34.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 15.4N 35.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 18.0N 37.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 21.0N 38.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 24.0N 38.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG
So once again we have a system (Orphelia) which if stays weak can move westwatrd and possibly cause islands trouble or worse.. Or if she strengthens will most likely ride the ridge recurving into oblivion...
CV Season appears to be over I hope.
Good Night. Blog is slow, storms still spinning, even the NHC is bored lol.
738. JLPR2
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I wouldn't call Ophelia 'RIP' yet, even if advisories are discontinued, it is pretty likely Ophelia will re-generate north of Puerto Rico and become a moderate TS again.. at least in my opinion. Similar to Colin last year.


keep the fish storms comin'!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
More solar activity??
Quoting JLPR2:




gracias
744. JLPR2
In comparison, look at Philippe.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:

Hilary is a tad off her forecast track.
Quoting JNCali:
More solar activity??
a large quake will follow too maybe by monday before 2
748. JLPR2


Thinking O is going to reform her LLC under convection. As of now, all we probably have is a nice Mid-level circulation.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
a large quake will follow too maybe by monday before 2
Agree.. hope its a 'fish' quake!
Quoting JNCali:
Agree.. hope its a 'fish' quake!


Careful. Japan suffered a "fish quake". Tsunamis can be more devastating than shaking buildings.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Careful. Japan suffered a "fish quake". Tsunamis can be more devastating than shaking buildings.
they got a good shake out of it too.. They need a break for sure!
Quoting JNCali:
they got a good shake out of it too.. They need a break for sure!


+1000

I think their break will not come until next year. They have had their share of storms, as well. No rest, for the weary. You have to admire their stamina.
Funeral .... or wedding?


Wedding, and Philippe will be widowed pretty soon...
*Ophelia Gasps*
Oh no! She's going down!
*Philippe laughs*
lol
Quoting redwagon:

Hilary is a tad off her forecast track.


a tad for sure...;).....it's a lully night...at least Keeper is here with some sun visuals...
Quoting KoritheMan:
Just finished a blog update, if anyone wants to read.
Thanks Kori...So you think that Hilary (her remenants)will most likely recurve before getting to SoCal? and possible sending a good amount of energy into the AZ-TX.. (TX would be nice)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
looked at the sunspot map and thank God 1302 is not facing us directly.. it looked like 1301 is though.. hope it behaves itself!
759. JLPR2
Yep, mid level...




Almost no convergence in the area.


Looks like a funeral...
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
a large quake will follow too maybe by monday before 2
Speaking of predicting quakes, did anyone hear about geologists facing trial in Italy because they failed to predict an earthquake? Or to put it more accurately, they implied that the small quakes they had been having made a large quake "unlikely" (six days before the big one hit). Very interesting read... Imagine the ramifications for mets if they could be held legally liable for their predictions. To put it nonscientifically, THAT would suck.

Link
691 TropicalAnalystwx13 "lol, I'm bored, so..."

...it's time for Texcasting

292.8(WNW) is the initial heading from TS.Ophelia's 2nd most recent ATCF position to:
TS.Ophelia's most recent ATCF position;
RumCay,Bahamas;
PortAransas (across the bay from CorpusChristi).

Copy&paste 17.7n57.0w-18.1n58.0w, rcy, 17.7n57.0w-23.709n74.803w, 17.7n57.0w-ktfp into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
Hilary is finaly going to EWRC. Lets see what the finished product looks like tmrw. Night All
EWRC

Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Hilary is finaly going to EWRC. Lets see what the finished product looks like tmrw. Night All

peace out.
Quoting JLPR2:
Yep, mid level...




Almost no convergence in the area.


Looks like a funeral...

I agree. I don't think it's a tropical cyclone anymore.

RIP... for now.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3
TROPICAL STORM PEDRING (NESAT)
11:00 AM PhST September 25 2011
=============================

Tropical Storm "PEDRING" has intensified further as it continues to endanger northern Luzon.

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Pedring (Nesat) located at 14.7°N 130.4°E or 600 km east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 11 knots.

Signal Warnings
==============

Signal Warning #1
--------------

Luzon Region
------------
1. Catanduanes
2. Albay
3. Camarines Sur

Additional Information
=====================

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under signal # 1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-20 mm per hour within the 600 km diameter of the tropical storm.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today and the hourly updates.
today 6 years ago

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

...RITA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION BUT REMAINS A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER...

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST...
OR ABOUT 40 MILES NORTH OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.
768. SLU
GAME OVER

THE LATEST
*Click images to magnify (images can also be magnified in Link Window by clicking on them)



770. rkay1
I didn't even know it started...
Quoting docrod:
CV Season appears to be over I hope.

Gettin closer...

For the moment, Philippe likes the 10N Westerly track...

774. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:
Gettin closer...



Too late, we lost her.

Unless the MLC associated with those clouds generates a new LLC Ophelia is history.
Quoting JLPR2:


Too late, we lost her.

Unless the MLC associated with those clouds generates a new LLC Ophelia is history.


So what we have now is only convection of a TD... ?
778. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:


So what we have now is only convection of a TWave... ?


Trof of low pressure.


But we might see something happening under the convection, if it doesn't dissipate. xD

What's left of the old LLC is naked since it left behind all the connection.
Quoting JLPR2:


Trof of low pressure.


But we might see something happening under the convection, if it doesn't dissipate. xD

What's left of the old LLC is naked since it left behind all the connection.


Thanks....
Quoting aspectre:
691 TropicalAnalystwx13 "lol, I'm bored, so..."

...it's time for Texcasting

292.8(WNW) is the initial heading from TS.Ophelia's 2nd most recent ATCF position to:
TS.Ophelia's most recent ATCF position;
RumCay,Bahamas;
PortAransas (across the bay from CorpusCristi).

Copy&paste 17.7n57.0w-18.1n58.0w, rcy, 17.7n57.0w-23.709n74.803w, 17.7n57.0w-ktfp into the GreatCircleMapper for more info


I think we may see Ophelia reform under the blob of convection.
OPHELIA
783. JLPR2
Quoting lordhuracan01:
EPHELIA


Ophelia's sister? XD

Quoting Skyepony:
I think we may see Ophelia reform under the blob of convection.


Yeah, as long as it doesn't dissipate something could form underneath it.
784. JLPR2
Another one hitting the water around the same latitude as Philippe.
I just checked NHC site and saw that it's 20% chance of tropical depression offcoast of FL/GA/SC. I came on here and saw that we are supposed to get hit by this -___- We don't need anymore rain, as it already dumped 1-2 inches the last 2 days. I also hope it doesn't strengthen rapidly, even though it's HIGHLY unlikely.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I just checked NHC site and saw that it's 20% chance of tropical depression offcoast of FL/GA/SC. I came on here and saw that we are supposed to get hit by this -___- We don't need anymore rain, as it already dumped 1-2 inches the last 2 days. I also hope it doesn't strengthen rapidly, even though it's HIGHLY unlikely.




91L has petter out for the most part
Quoting JLPR2:


Ophelia's sister? XD



Yeah, as long as it doesn't dissipate something could form underneath it.


JAJAJA!!!
Quoting Tazmanian:




91L has petter out for the most part
oh... thanks. I felt dumb. Anyway... isn't blog alittle slower than usual, LOL?
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM OPHELIA...LOCATED ABOUT 310 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND ON TROPICAL STORM PHILLIPE...LOCATED ABOUT
370 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMAS NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME
EVEN LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOUR



91L down too 0% and now am off for the night
Quoting Bluestorm5:
oh... thanks. I felt dumb. Anyway... isn't blog alittle slower than usual, LOL?




olny when there stroms comeing at the USA then you see the blog at 1,000 commets in hr lol



well good nigth all
I'm out of here for tonight. The USA and all Central American and all Islands are safe tonight from Hurricanes and Tropical Storms. May they remain so for the rest of the 2011 season.

May President Obama sleep well because he is the leader of the free world.
792. JLPR2
There goes what's left of Ophelia, swirling away from the convection.



Goodnight all!
18.1n58.0w has been re-evaluated&altered for TS.Ophelia's_6amGMT_ATCF
17.9n58.0w, 18.3n58.8w are now the most recent positions
Starting 24Sept_6amGMT and ending 25Sept_6amGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormOphelia's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 25Sept_6amGMT,
the island blob at 23.709n74.803w-rcy is the endpoint of the straightline projection
connected to its nearest airport for the 25Sept_12amGMT*mapping,
and the sea-to-island blob at 18.587n64.356w-ngd is the same for the 24Sept_6pmGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
TS.Ophelia's travel-speed was 9.8mph(15.8k/h) on a heading of 297.7degrees(WNW)
TS.Ophelia was headed toward passage over SandyPoint,Abaco,Bahamas ~5days8hours from now

Copy&paste 18.587n64.356w-ngd, 23.709n74.803w-rcy, 16.5n54.7w-17.5n55.6w, 17.5n55.6w-17.7n57.0w, 17.7n57.0w-17.9n58.0w, 17.9n58.0w-18.3n58.8w, myas, 17.9n58.0w-25.97n77.19w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 25Sept_12amGMT

* The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed&heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
The naked Ophelia is moving complely west and convection will probably try to develop again and will get shear.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #4
TROPICAL STORM PEDRING (NESAT)
5:00 PM PhST September 25 2011
=============================

Tropical Storm "PEDRING" has accelerated and intensified further as it continues to move westward towards Isabela-Aurora Area.

At 4:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Pedring (Nesat) located at 14.6°N 129.0°E or 460 km east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 15 knots.

Signal Warnings
==============

Signal Warning #2
--------------

Luzon Region
------------
1. Catanduanes

Signal Warning #1
--------------

Luzon Region
------------
1. Camarines Sur
2. Camarines Norte
3. Albay
4. Burias Island
5. Sorsogon
6. Quezon
7. Polillo Island
8. Aurora

Additional Information
=====================

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under signals #2 and # 1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-20 mm per hour within the 600 km diameter of the tropical storm.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today and the hourly updates.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NESAT (T1117)
18:00 PM JST September 25 2011
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 9:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Nesat (980 hPa) located at 14.6N 128.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
220 NM from the center in the north quadrant
170 NM from the center in the south quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 15.8N 124.9E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
45 HRS: 16.9N 120.7E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 17.5N 116.5E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL STORM HAITANG (T1118)
18:00 PM JST September 25 2011
=================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Haitang (996 hPa) located at 17.1N 112.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest slowly

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 17.1N 110.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 16.9N 107.7E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 17.1N 105.4E - Tropical Depression
Good morning. how the hell am I awake?! XD
Ophelia is dead for now.
...Ophelia, where have you gone?....

Link

Good morning all...
This isn't welcome:

Uh-oh

From the Storm Prediction Center:

...PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND E TX...
S-SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/E
TX AHEAD OF A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH MORNING SFC OBS
INDICATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING /TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 100 DEG F
ACROSS CNTRL TX/ SHOULD PROMOTE A RAPIDLY DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND SUBSEQUENTLY LEAD TO RH VALUES PLUMMETING TO THE LOWER
20S. DESPITE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ONLY BEING MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE
FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT...ONGOING EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT
ACROSS THE REGION WILL EXACERBATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE
SPREAD
.

100% of Texas is suffering at least "moderate" drought conditions (D1-D4); 99.03% is in "severe" drought (D2-D4); 96.1% is listed as in "extreme" drought (D3-D4); and a completely disheartening 85.43% is in an "exceptional" drought. And sadly, with a return to La Nina conditions, climatologists predict things to last at least into next fall. One large hope had been a tropical system or two, but with October quickly approaching, that's not looking very likely.

Uh-oh

Gives new meaning to the term "Red State"... ;-)
morning all
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Good morning. how the hell am I awake?! XD
Ophelia is dead for now.


iknow right... out partying all night and I'm up at 7:15 Im such a loon... but not nearly as bad as ophelia
I dont know how this blog got so slow
But as this is a tropics blog..
No one has taken a look yet at Philippe this morning IMO
It's really getting better organized
Look at the satellite pictures, ADT, etc

Satellite image of Philippe (floater 3)
I certainly do not have anything to say about Ophelia
Atlantic Wide View
25/1145 UTC 18.3N 59.9W TOO WEAK OPHELIA
Good morning, all. Ophelia is being sheared apart it looks like. I'm glad Philippe is forecasted to go north soon. If he had come across, it could have been bad for the Islands, and wherever else he might have gone.
Quoting Neapolitan:
This isn't welcome:

Uh-oh

From the Storm Prediction Center:

...PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND E TX...
S-SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/E
TX AHEAD OF A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH MORNING SFC OBS
INDICATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING /TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 100 DEG F
ACROSS CNTRL TX/ SHOULD PROMOTE A RAPIDLY DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND SUBSEQUENTLY LEAD TO RH VALUES PLUMMETING TO THE LOWER
20S. DESPITE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ONLY BEING MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE
FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT...ONGOING EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT
ACROSS THE REGION WILL EXACERBATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE
SPREAD
.

100% of Texas is suffering at least "moderate" drought conditions (D1-D4); 99.03% is in "severe" drought (D2-D4); 96.1% is listed as in "extreme" drought (D3-D4); and a completely disheartening 85.43% is in an "exceptional" drought. And sadly, with a return to La Nina conditions, climatologists predict things to last at least into next fall. One large hope had been a tropical system or two, but with October quickly approaching, that's not looking very likely.

Uh-oh

Gives new meaning to the term "Red State"... ;-)


There was a snake in my house this morning, second one this year. It's oppressive here, especially for the critters.
Quoting weatherh98:


iknow right... out partying all night and I'm up at 7:15 Im such a loon... but not nearly as bad as ophelia

And it's raining here. Seriously, I feel half-dead. I'm gonna eat some breakfast before I fall asleep again.
It looks like some of the moisture left over from the disturbance over the Bahamas is migrating westward towards Florida.

Fire threat posted for my area today..with only 20 mph gusts expected? So sad. Guess I'll go turn on the sprinklers for a while...hopefully I won't have to spray down the roof this time :(
Why can't Texas have this?
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
It looks like some of the moisture left over from the disturbance over the Bahamas is migrating westward towards Florida.

idea yesterday of ex 98 energy mixing with 91s could organized in the straights of fl. is not that far off
819. SLU
Expect to read at 11am today ..

...OPHELIA DEGENERATES TO A REMANT LOW. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS...
Quoting SLU:
Expect to read at 11am today ..

...OPHELIA DEGENERATES TO A REMANT LOW. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS...



can you re move that or evere one think that is ture you sould not be puting thing like that on the blogs un less it is ture
Quoting islander101010:
idea yesterday of ex 98 energy mixing with 91s could organized in the s traights of fl. is not that far off
something to watch alright, weather guy here around Tampa says showers and storms today, some might be heavy
Quoting Tazmanian:



can you re move that or evere one think that is ture you sould not be puting thing like that on the blogs un less it is ture


IMO, I see no problem with it. He's stating its fake, and I certainty agree with him too.

Now, if he posted an entirely fake outlook and stated it was real, THEN there would be a problem.
Quoting LargoFl:
something to watch alright, weather guy here around Tampa says showers and storms today, some might be heavy
they might want to get their markers ready put that many clouds over 90' water watch out
Good morning all.

Except something like, "OPHELIA DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY..."

At 11AM.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


IMO, I see no problem with it. He's stating its fake, and I certainty agree with him too.

Now, if he posted an entirely fake outlook and stated it was real, THEN there would be a problem.



oh i see now
Tropical Storm Philippe looks a little ragged this morning...? Or is it just me?

"Levee"
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good morning all.

Except something like, "OPHELIA DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY..."

At 11AM.

really does not matter the system is going to do whatever it does whether nhc accepts it or not
Bye bye caribbean disturbance, once again the models drop it...
Quoting TropicalWeatherGrl88:
Bye bye caribbean disturbance, once again the models drop it...

Until they pick it up again.
831. 7544
morning all is that mess east of fl on the radar above now moving west will it reach the coast or go north and stay offshore tia
Short Range Base Loop (Miami).
Could be a weak broad circulation in this mess.

833. 7544
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Short Range Base Loop (Miami).
Could be a weak broad circulation in this mess.



notice that is there a spin to it will it get to go west tia
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tropical Storm Philippe looks a little ragged this morning...? Or is it just me?


I think so too.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good morning all.

Except something like, "OPHELIA DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY..."

At 11AM.

They should call it renmant low,otherwise, would be embarassing to say the least... there isn't much left there!!
May see Philippe up to 50 mph at 11AM.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 /1002.6mb/ 51.0kt
837. 7544
looks like we may have a new bahama blob today
838. JLPR2
Quoting SLU:
Expect to read at 11am today ..

...OPHELIA DEGENERATES TO A REMANT LOW. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS...


Or...
OPHELIA'S LLC DISSIPATES. BUT WE'LL KEEP ISSUING ADVISORIES JUST FOR FUN.

:)
Quoting 7544:
looks like we may have a new bahama blob today
might need to call the s fl. blob pretty soon
How does it "remain dangerous" if it isn't affecting anybody? :P

BULLETIN
HURRICANE HILARY ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 25 2011

...HILARY REMAINS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT CONTINUES SLOWLY
WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 109.2W
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES
Quoting JLPR2:


Or...
OPHELIA'S LLC DISSIPATES. BUT WE'LL KEEP ISSUING ADVISORIES JUST FOR FUN.

:)

THIS ISN'T EVEN A STORM ANYMORE...BUT WE CAN AND WILL KEEP ISSUING ADVISORIES...LOL...
:D
Ophelia is still a TS as of 11 AM.
You're joking...right?


BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2011

...OPHELIA MAKES A JOG TOWARD THE WEST BUT EXPECTED TO TURN BACK
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 60.4W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
But...why?
...OPHELIA MAKES A JOG TOWARD THE WEST BUT EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 25
Location: 18.3°N 60.4°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: W at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
845. SLU
...OPHELIA MAKES A JOG TOWARD THE WEST BUT EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...

HUH? This is what passes for a TS in 2011?
846. SLU
wow . i'm surprised
Looks to me as if the new Bahama blob is currently stationary and not moving in any direction.
"Tropical Storm" Ophelia...
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
But...why?
...OPHELIA MAKES A JOG TOWARD THE WEST BUT EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 25
Location: 18.3°N 60.4°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: W at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb


MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. HOWEVER...OPHELIA COULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE
AREA LATER TODAY IF THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...
335 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
Wow.... Just wow. -_-

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2011

...OPHELIA MAKES A JOG TOWARD THE WEST BUT EXPECTED TO TURN BACK
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
"Tropical Storm" Ophelia...



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. HOWEVER...OPHELIA COULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE
AREA LATER TODAY IF THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...
335 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
852. SLU
Ok .. maybe since it's close to the islands they don't want to discontinue advisories but they will propably revise its strength in the post season analysis as they did with TS ANA in 2009....
As always, if the post-season analyses shows that Ophelia wasn't a tropical storm at this time, the official TCR will reflect that. For now, the folks at the NHC--who, after all, do this for a living--will keep Ophelia as a TS so long as they think it deserves it; if they're later proven wrong, the historical record will reflect that. I have to say, I don't think I understand the yelling and complaining going on; it's not as if anyone's life will be affected by whether the NHC calls it a TS, a TD, or a wave, right?

Right?
Bahamas blob, the second.
Is that a swirl?
Quoting Neapolitan:
As always, if the post-season analyses shows that Ophelia wasn't a tropical storm at this time, the official TCR will reflect that. For now, the folks at the NHC--who, after all, do this for a living--will keep Ophelia as a TS so long as they think it deserves it; if they're later proven wrong, the historical record will reflect that. I have to say, I don't think I understand the yelling and complaining going on; it's not as if anyone's life will be affected by whether the NHC calls it a TS, a TD, or a wave, right?

Right?


Right.
Quoting Neapolitan:
As always, if the post-season analyses shows that Ophelia wasn't a tropical storm at this time, the official TCR will reflect that. For now, the folks at the NHC--who, after all, do this for a living--will keep Ophelia as a TS so long as they think it deserves it; if they're later proven wrong, the historical record will reflect that. I have to say, I don't think I understand the yelling and complaining going on; it's not as if anyone's life will be affected by whether the NHC calls it a TS, a TD, or a wave, right?

Right?

Right. Or Left. lol
Heavy rain at my location in South Fort Myers. I guess no swimming in the pool. At least I got the dog outside to do his business just in time.
Philippe -

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2011

PHILIPPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH A
NEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 40 KT BASED ON
A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 30
KT FROM SAB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/10 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. THE MODELS REMAIN
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PHILIPPE MOVING TOWARD A DEVELOPING
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND GRADUALLY
TURNING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND MOVING NORTHWARD
AFTER THAT. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING RECURVATURE TO
THE NORTHEAST BY DAY 5...EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF MODEL. OUT OF RESPECT
FOR THAT MODEL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO SHOW ONLY
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS TCVN AND TVCA.

MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE
MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING
THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...PHILLIPE IS EXPECTED TO
EXPERIENCE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 20-25 KT AND BE MOVING
OVER SUB-27C SSTS AND INTO A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH
GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THAT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
REMAINS ABOVE THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE...BUT BELOW THE MORE
ROBUST GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...WHICH STILL INSIST THAT PHILLIPE WILL
BE NEAR CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH BY THE DAY 4-5 PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 12.5N 30.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 13.3N 32.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 14.4N 33.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 15.5N 34.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 16.7N 35.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 19.3N 37.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 22.5N 38.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 26.0N 38.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Right.
it really does not matter in ten yrs no one will even remember this storm we only remember the majors
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Until they pick it up again.
Hey, did you see this mornings run of the GFS, a low forming off S. FL. and one in the SW Caribbean around the 6th? Link This will coincide with the MJO returning.
Quoting islander101010:
it really does not matter in ten yrs no one will even remember this storm we only remember the majors
& TS Allison.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
lol


Ex-99L with thunderstorms.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Ex-99L with thunderstorms.

It won't give up. Expect it to be re-invested LOL
imo the GFS has pretty much nailed Ophelia
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
But...why?
...OPHELIA MAKES A JOG TOWARD THE WEST BUT EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 25
Location: 18.3N 60.4W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: Wt at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Have to admit that forecaster Mr. Stewart is very optimistic with Ophelia, if things comes out as he says they should begin posting advices to the islands, just in case. Don't you thinK?
Quoting Neapolitan:
As always, if the post-season analyses shows that Ophelia wasn't a tropical storm at this time, the official TCR will reflect that. For now, the folks at the NHC--who, after all, do this for a living--will keep Ophelia as a TS so long as they think it deserves it; if they're later proven wrong, the historical record will reflect that. I have to say, I don't think I understand the yelling and complaining going on; it's not as if anyone's life will be affected by whether the NHC calls it a TS, a TD, or a wave, right?

Right?
Seems like Ophelia is still staying on that Katia like track.
Quoting BDADUDE:
Seems like Ophelia is still staying on that Katia like track.


agree with a maria style!
872. 7544
yucatan blob seems to be firing up hmmmmm
Storms starting to fire in the Miami area (actually all over South Florida). Looks like a stormy day forming.
874. j2008
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
How does it "remain dangerous" if it isn't affecting anybody? :P

BULLETIN
HURRICANE HILARY ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 25 2011

...HILARY REMAINS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT CONTINUES SLOWLY
WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 109.2W
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES

It may soon affect my area in AZ next week.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Right.
Not so sure about that, we have had killer TD and tropical waves, do to land slides and massive floods. So anything that causes rain and stays stationary near or on top of us for a couple of days can be life threatening. Specially in Puerto Rico, an over populated island of 4 million people(american citezens by the way)with very high terrain and mountains.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
"Tropical Storm" Ophelia...
ha,ha,ha, ha, funny, :)
looking at Ophelia she don't look that bad she is making a intelligent move ,she is sipping the humidity in front of her she should be dead by now but she still alive.
879. 7544
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Storms starting to fire in the Miami area (actually all over South Florida). Looks like a stormy day forming.


thanks and looks whats to the east will it make it to the coast /?
880. j2008
Be back later. Philippe looks very organized this morning again one of the few TS this year to be this organized for this long. Ophelia's LLC is very invisible apparently, and Hilary continues to be a great looking storm. Be back later this afternoon.
Quoting 7544:
yucatan blob seems to be firing up hmmmmm

Ex-99L.
Ophelia is still a tropical storm because of its close proximaty to the island chain. They do not want to drop it, have people let down their guard, and then have it re-intensify and catch those people off guard. Look at how close it is to the islands, and what if it doesn't make that northern-turn?
Quoting Trouper415:
Ophelia is still a tropical storm because of its close proximaty to the island chain. They do not want to drop it, have people let down their guard, and then have it re-intensify and catch those people off guard. Look at how close it is to the islands, and what if it doesn't make that northern-turn?


yeap a lot of rain
Is Hilary trying to tell us something?? Looks like a big "L" to me...

Quoting 7544:


thanks and looks whats to the east will it make it to the coast /?


I'm not sure if the "blob" will move over South Florida. But there's abundant moisture over the southern part of the state. There also storms froming over the western GOM moving east towards the west coast. There should be a lot of thunderstorms over the southern half of the state today.
A frontal boundry is dropping down and will dry everything out in a few days. But ahead of the frontal boundry we should expect some stormy weather over the next couple days.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I just checked NHC site and saw that it's 20% chance of tropical depression offcoast of FL/GA/SC. I came on here and saw that we are supposed to get hit by this -___- We don't need anymore rain, as it already dumped 1-2 inches the last 2 days. I also hope it doesn't strengthen rapidly, even though it's HIGHLY unlikely.


Dont worry about it. Much like the last 4 hurricane seasons...and Mizzou's football team...nothing is going to happen.
Since both Ophelia and Philippe are pathetic excuses for tropical storms, let's refresh our memory with what a beautiful cyclone looks like.

Typhoon Nesat with 70kt winds.

Quoting Neapolitan:
As always, if the post-season analyses shows that Ophelia wasn't a tropical storm at this time, the official TCR will reflect that. For now, the folks at the NHC--who, after all, do this for a living--will keep Ophelia as a TS so long as they think it deserves it; if they're later proven wrong, the historical record will reflect that. I have to say, I don't think I understand the yelling and complaining going on; it's not as if anyone's life will be affected by whether the NHC calls it a TS, a TD, or a wave, right?

Right?


Yup. Wind is wind, water is water.
We're focused on Ophelia and Philippe and all, but need I remind you that we now have a strengthening typhoon in the Western Pacific? Maximum sustained winds are up to 80 mph, and are expected to possibly surpass 135 mph as Nesat makes landfall.

Visible:

* UNAVAILABLE

Shortwave:



Water Vapor:



None:



AVN:



Dvorak:



JSL:



RGB:



Funktop:



Rainbow:

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Since both Ophelia and Philippe are pathetic excuses for tropical storms, let's refresh our memory with what a beautiful cyclone looks like.

Typhoon Nesat with 70kt winds.



I wouldn't call Philippe pathetic, it is acting its intensity.

Prognostic Reasoning for Nesat...I'm assuming that is like our Forecast Discussion?

WDPN31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W WARNING NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 20W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. A 251105Z SSMIS
37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH A STRONG BANDING
FEATURE WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT INTO THE SOUTH
QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE AND PGTW
FIX WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED AT 70
KNOTS, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65
KNOTS, BASED ON AN OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 71 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TY 20W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE POSITIONED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. TY 20W IS STILL EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER LUZON AND SHOULD REACH A
PEAK INTENSITY BETWEEN 115-130 KNOTS BY TAU 36. TY 20W WILL WEAKEN
AS IT CROSSES LUZON BUT SHOULD RE-STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 20W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD HAINAN ISLAND UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE BUILDING INTO SOUTHEAST CHINA. THE
DYNAMIC MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A 350 NM SPREAD
IN TAU 120 POSITIONS. GFS AND NOGAPS REMAIN THE NORTHERN OUTLIERS
WITH TRACKS NEAR HONG KONG AND APPEAR UNLIKELY AS THEY TRACK THE
SYSTEM INTO THE RIDGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE (UKMO, GFDN,
ECMWF) IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED OVER HAINAN ISLAND AND REPRESENTS A MORE
LIKELY SCENARIO. THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED SLIGHTLY FASTER AND
TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAU 96/120 MODEL CONSENSUS FORECASTS.//
NNNN
Quoting BDADUDE:


Can you post the web site where that map is?
Thanks.
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Ophelia = Fish

Philipe = Fish

What you still doing on here then. Don't you have like football to watch or a pool party or BBQ to attend. Or you can just sit here and watch two storms that are never going to have ANY impact on America whatsoever.


Thats right.. we keep forgetting that don't we. All these silly people on here that keep forgetting that only America counts.. and the rest of us are just a speed bump.
cat5hurricane,

If you find the season boring, then please leave. Go do something, let us stare at our fish storms. You'd be doing a great service to the blog, that's for sure. Personally, I, unlike you clearly, find all tropical storms and hurricanes interesting and not just the Category 5's that are about to hit the USA.
The Tropics are active World Wide: 5 named storms and 1 invest! Btw GO BUCS!!!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
cat5hurricane,

If you find the season boring, then please leave. Go do something, let us stare at our fish storms. You'd be doing a great service to the blog, that's for sure. Personally, I, unlike you clearly, find all tropical storms and hurricanes interesting and not just the Category 5's that are about to hit the USA.

definitely.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Even weak, pathetic storms like these?? And with the GOM closing down in a couple weeks, what's left? Another Paula, maybe Richard-type storm.

LMAO.


You really need to FOCUS :)
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Even weak, pathetic storms like these?? And with the GOM closing down in a couple weeks, what's left? Another Paula, maybe Richard-type storm.

LMAO.


you know, coming from the guy who just said for us to go do something, like BBQ or something.. you don't seem to want to take your own advice.

afternoon everyone. Thought I'd come out of lurking for a few seconds to say hi.
It's called multitasking.

Eating lunch, watching a movie, checking local radar for storms, checking posts in Wunderblog, researching information for work, typing up an assignment for work, etc.

Troll ('trole) - noun 1.In Internet slang, a troll is someone who posts inflammatory, extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community, such as an online discussion forum, chat room, or blog, with the primary intent of provoking readers into an emotional response or of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion; often immature and/or emotionally needy. (Note: as trolls feed off the emotional reactions they have provoked, the quickest and best way to make them disappear is to pretend they don't exist at all: starved of the desired attention, they will always move elsewhere.)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
cat5hurricane,

If you find the season boring, then please leave. Go do something, let us stare at our fish storms. You'd be doing a great service to the blog, that's for sure. Personally, I, unlike you clearly, find all tropical storms and hurricanes interesting and not just the Category 5's that are about to hit the USA.


+100,000
Hi guys, Dr. Masters just wrote a new blog :)
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Ophelia = Fish

Philipe = Fish

What you still doing on here then. Don't you have like football to watch or a pool party or BBQ to attend. Or you can just sit here and watch two storms that are never going to have ANY impact on America whatsoever.


When will you ever SHUT UP?
18.3n58.8w has been re-evaluated&altered for TS.Ophelia's_12pmGMT_ATCF
18.2n59.0w, 18.2n60.0w are now the most recent positions
Starting 24Sept_12pmGMT and ending 25Sept_12pmGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormOphelia's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 25Sept_12pmGMT.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
TS.Ophelia's travel-speed was 11mph(17.7k/h) on a heading of 270.2degrees(W)
TS.Ophelia was headed toward passage over BlowingPoint,Anguilla ~14&1/2.hours from now

Copy&paste 23.709n74.803w-rcy, 25.97n77.19w-myas, 17.5n55.6w-17.7n57.0w, 17.7n57.0w-17.9n58.0w, 17.9n58.0w-18.2n59.0w, 18.2n59.0w-18.2n60.0w, axa, 18.2n59.0w-18.17n63.1w into the GreatCircleMapper to include:
the island blob at 25.97n77.19w-myas as the endpoint of the straightline projection
connected to its nearest airport for the25Sept_6amGMT*mapping,
and the island blob at 23.709n74.803w-rcy as the same for the 25Sept_12amGMT*mapping,
along with other info.

The previous mapping for 25Sept_6amGMT
Ophelia 265 west in the last frames?
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Ophelia = Fish

Philipe = Fish

What you still doing on here then. Don't you have like football to watch or a pool party or BBQ to attend. Or you can just sit here and watch two storms that are never going to have ANY impact on America whatsoever.
Hypocrite.

Do you not receive enough attention at home that you have to pretend like you're the Messiah of a blog? If you're going to give us advice, follow it yourself.
910. JLPR2
Quoting luigi18:
Ophelia 265 west in the last frames?


I can't believe it's still a TS. XD
Sorry but these models are just wayy off. Already have Ophelia moving NW, which is not the case. Sure a system should recurve from that trough, but doesn't mean it will. I have to at least agree somewhat with the BAMM runs, since we are dealing with a shallow/weak system. Ophelia may head more west then what most models are showing. I've been saying this with Ophelia for a while and have been shut down by some bloggers saying I wishcast this to hit Florida. Sorry, but going with the flow of the pattern, Ophelia should continue west to WNW for some time.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Troll ('trole) - noun 1.In Internet slang, a troll is someone who posts inflammatory, extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community, such as an online discussion forum, chat room, or blog, with the primary intent of provoking readers into an emotional response or of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion; often immature and/or emotionally needy. (Note: as trolls feed off the emotional reactions they have provoked, the quickest and best way to make them disappear is to pretend they don't exist at all: starved of the desired attention, they will always move elsewhere.)


And from Andrew Heenan:

The object of this page is to bring together a definitive document to cover the utter sadness of the Internet troll. Usually, a troll is nothing more than a passing nuisance, but, as this page will show, they can be a worry (stalkers). However, it is almost invariably an inadequate individual who can be safely ignored.

This page will define the activity, and help with early recognition; once acknowledged, trolls can take up residence, and, like athlete's foot, can be difficult to shift. And when you've finished here, I recommend this fairly comprehensive guide to managing sad thirteen year olds loose on Mom's computer.

What Is A Troll?

The term derives from "trolling", a style of fishing which involves trailing bait through a likely spot hoping for a bite. The troll posts a message, often in response to an honest question, that is intended to upset, disrupt or simply insult the group.

Usually, it will fail, as the troll rarely bothers to match the tone or style of the group, and usually its ignorance shows.

Why do trolls do it?

I believe that most trolls are sad people, living their lonely lives vicariously through those they see as strong and successful.

Disrupting a stable newsgroup gives the illusion of power, just as for a few, stalking a strong person allows them to think they are strong, too.

For trolls, any response is 'recognition'; they are unable to distinguish between irritation and admiration; their ego grows directly in proportion to the response, regardless of the form or content of that response.

Trolls, rather surprisingly, dispute this, claiming that it's a game or joke; this merely confirms the diagnosis; how sad do you have to be to find such mind-numbingly trivial timewasting to be funny?

Remember that trolls are cowards; they'll usually post just enough to get an argument going, then sit back and count the responses (Yes, that's what they do!).

S67
What is up! The blog is acting Crazy or I have some problems!