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Ophelia regenerates; Typhoon Nesat heads towards China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:39 AM GMT on September 28, 2011

Ophelia is back as a tropical depression, thanks to a reduction in wind shear that allowed the storm to re-organize yesterday afternoon just east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. Martinique radar shows a large area of concentrated thunderstorms lies about 200 miles to the east of the northern Lesser Antilles, with good spiral banding and rotation. Recent satellite loops show that Ophelia's heavy thunderstorms are not increasing, and are limited in areal extent. The low-level center is partially exposed to view, thanks to strong wind shear. No hurricane hunter flights are scheduled for today.


Figure 1. Morning radar image from the Martinique radar shows the heavy rain showers from Ophelia, just east of the northern Lesser Antilles. Image credit: Meteo-France.

Dry air and moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots are slowing down Ophelia's intensification, and will continue to do so through Thursday. By Friday, wind shear is expected to fall to 10 - 15 knots, and most of the models give strong support to Ophelia intensifying into a hurricane by Saturday. With the models all agreeing on at track for Ophelia just east of Bermuda, Tropical Storm Warnings will probably be required for the island this weekend. Bermuda will be on the left (weak) side of Ophelia, so will miss the storm's strongest winds and heaviest rains. Ophelia may be a threat to Southeast Newfoundland early next week.

In the far eastern Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe is headed northwest into the middle of the North Atlantic, and is not expected to trouble and land areas. Wind shear is high enough over Philippe that the storm may dissipate by 4 - 5 days from now.

Typhoon Nesat headed towards China
Typhoon Nesat is headed west towards a landfall on China's Hainan Island on Thursday, and in northern Vietnam just south of Hanoi on Friday. Nesat is a large but disorganized Category 1 storm, and will not have time to strengthen significantly before landfall. However, Nesat is a very wet storm, capable of dropping over a foot of rain in 24 hours, according to latest satellite rainfall forecasts. Nesat roared across Luzon Island in the Philippines Monday as a powerful Category 3 typhoon with 120 mph winds, leaving 20 people dead and severe flooding problems.


Figure 2. Predicted rainfall amounts for the 24 hours ending at 06 UTC on Thursday September 29 show the Nesat is expected to dump over a foot of rain (red colors) along where its southern eyewall tracks. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Hilary steadily weakening
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary has weakened to a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds. Continued weakening will occur over the next few days, and all of the models show Hilary dissipating before reaching the coast. Moisture from Hilary will not reach the U.S.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good bye Cape Verde season.



Good bye blog, may check in at school.

I have off today.
(jewish holiday)
Quoting capelookout:

And you're following two weak, pathetic storms that have no chance of impacting the U.S.? Can I ask why?

Hey US is not the only country around
Bermuda and Canada can be affected by Ophelia
both todays 0z and and 6z gfs dropped the SW carribean storm and show a central carribean storm becoming a massive hurricane and stalling off the coast of the yuctan. remind anyone of another storm that did this???...
Happy New Year!

Is the Jet finally set up to bring Texas some serious precipitation? It looks that way to me.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
both todays 0z and and 6z gfs dropped the SW carribean storm and show a central carribean storm becoming a massive hurricane and stalling off the coast of the yuctan. remind anyone of another storm that did this???...
Does the name start with 'W'?
Quoting biff4ugo:
Happy New Year!

Is the Jet finally set up to bring Texas some serious precipitation? It looks that way to me.

I hope so.
Okay, I found a town that was severely damaged by Irene.
Aurora,NC
Just to show you that Irene was not a hurricane to underestimate.
This season was not a bust.
I mean, if YOU think that a storm that caused around 10.6 BILLION dollars and 56 deaths is not "good enough" then you got problems, because you obviously want people to die, just put it that way.
Quoting superpete:
Does the name start with 'W'?
yup, same exact pattern moving wnw stalling off the yucatan huge trough dipping down. you know what happens after that right? ^^^^>>> (northeast)
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
yup, same exact pattern moving wnw stalling off the yucatan huge trough dipping down. you know what happens after that right? ^^^^>>> (northeast)

wilma right
Even though climo suggest something (might) develope in the carib dont put to much stock on 300+ model forecasts.
Good morning interesting feature over the central US analyzed by CIMSS.
LinkPersistent Cutoff Low Over the North Central US

LinkWatervaporLoopCentUS
Quoting Chicklit:
Good morning interesting feature over the central US analyzed by CIMSS.
LinkPersistent Cutoff Low Over the North Central US

LinkWatervaporLoopCentUS

Looks a little weaker then it did, but cool. :)
USGS CLICK is Shutting Down

Posted on September 28, 2011 by lidar
In a shocking email from the CLICK team at the USGS they just announced that they will be ceasing all operations, except for off-line archiving of data, on October 1. I wanted to get this news out right away while I attempt to find out more about the reasons behind this.

Link
Quoting RitaEvac:
USGS CLICK is Shutting Down

Posted on September 28, 2011 by lidar
In a shocking email from the CLICK team at the USGS they just announced that they will be ceasing all operations, except for off-line archiving of data, on October 1. I wanted to get this news out right away while I attempt to find out more about the reasons behind this.

Link

:O
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
yup, same exact pattern moving wnw stalling off the yucatan huge trough dipping down. you know what happens after that right? ^^^^>>> (northeast)
That is the Low that emerges off the Colombian coast on about Oct 9th/11th .Could be an interesting track for us here in Cayman, if it materializes.
Quoting superpete:
That is the Low that emerges off the Colombian coast on about Oct 9th/11th .Could be an interesting track for us here in Cayman, if it materializes.
yeah mixed with monsoonal inflow from the SW carribean. the system will be large and if it builds an anticyclone over itself the high shear in the gulf would have little to no effect on it
Good Morning and just a quick drop by.
Found this in the news today. It's a web-site for individuals that are diabetic, created by a diabetic, for a emergency kit for quick evacuations or sustainment during a natural disaster.

www.med-Ecase.com
Quoting Hurricyclone:

Looks a little weaker then it did, but cool. :)


Something spun off the coast of Georgia from it I think.
NEW BLOG!!!
Well ain't that the ??? Fell asleep after completion but before posting.
9 hours late, with the "...from now" corrected for the tardiness...

TS.Ophelia's_29Sept__6amGMT_ATCF : Starting 28Sept_6amGMT and ending 29Sept_6amGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormOphelia's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 29Sept_12amGMT.
The AXA dot is used to produce a map-scale showing the northern LesserAntilles as reference points.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
TS.Ophelia's travel-speed was 7.2mph(11.5k/h) on a heading of 322.9degrees(NW)
TS.Ophelia was headed toward passage over LastChance,NorthCarolina ~7days21hours from now
(Not shown)

To see the straightline projection, 2 previous straightline projection's endpoints, and other info, copy&paste 34.899n76.319w-12nc, 35.91n75.596w-meo, 18.2n59.6w-18.4n59.8w, 18.4n59.8w-18.8n60.2w, 18.8n60.2w-19.2n60.5w, 19.2n60.5w-19.7n60.9w, axa, 19.2n60.5w-35.444n76.015w, 7w6 into the GreatCircleMapper

The previous mapping for 29Sept_12amGMT